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Edouard Dying; Fung-Wong Floods Manila

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:33 PM GMT on September 19, 2014

The Atlantic's strongest and longest-lived named storm of 2014, Edouard, is near the end of its life. Passage over waters cooler than 23°C (73°F) have resulted in the loss of all of Edouard's heavy thunderstorms, and satellite images show that Edouard is just a swirl of low clouds. Edouard will likely be declared dead by Saturday morning.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Edouard.

African tropical wave 95L off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) that emerged from the coast of Africa on Wednesday night is being given lukewarm support for development by two of our three reliable tropical cyclone genesis models. Satellite loops show 95L has a moderate degree of spin, but its heavy thunderstorm activity is sparse and disorganized. The wave is under light wind shear and over warm waters of 28°C (82°F), conditions that favor development. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 20% and 30%, respectively. This wave is expected to move northwest near or over the Cape Verdes Islands by Sunday. Once it is northwest of the islands early next week, 95L will encounter drier air, making further development difficult. If 95L does develop, I doubt it would affect any land areas besides the Cape Verde Islands.


Figure 2. MODIS true-color image of Invest 95L off the coast of Africa, at approximately 8 am EDT September 19, 2014. Image credit: NASA.

Odile's rains flooding New Mexico and Texas
Moisture left over from Hurricane Odile continues to slosh over the Southwest U.S., where widespread areas of 2 - 4" of rain have fallen. The heaviest rains were over Southeast New Mexico near the Texas border, where a few areas of 6" fell in a 12-hour period ending Friday morning, causing flooded roads and a number of high-water rescues. Additional rains of 1 - 3" are possible in this area through Saturday morning.


Figure 3. Observed precipitation for the 4-day period ending Friday, September 19, 2014. The remnants of Hurricane Odile dumped a large area of 2 - 4 " of rain over the Southwest U.S. Image credit: National Weather Service.

Tropical Storm Polo brushing Southwest Mexico
Sporadic heavy rains continue to fall along the Pacific coast of Southwest Mexico as Tropical Storm Polo heads to the northwest, parallel to shore. The models are in good agreement that the core of Polo will stay offshore of both Southwest Mexico and the Baja Peninsula, but Polo's heavy rains of 2 - 4" along the coast of Southwest Mexico still represent a flooding threat. The 5 am EDT Friday Wind Probability Forecast from NHC gave Cabo San Lucas on the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula a 25% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds from Polo, and a 0% chance of hurricane-force winds. Satellite loops show that Polo is experiencing wind shear that is keeping heavy thunderstorms from developing on its northeast flank.


Figure 4. Tropical Storm Polo as seen by MODIS at 4:35 pm EDT Thursday September 18, 2014. At the time, Polo had top winds of 70 mph. Wind shear was keeping heavy thunderstorms from developing on its northeast flank. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Fung-Wong floods Manila
In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Fung-Wong brushed the northern end of the Philippines' Luzon Island on Friday morning with sustained winds of 45 mph. Monsoon rains intensified by Fung-Wong dumped 10.6" (268 mm) of rain overnight on the capital of the Philippines, Manila, causing widespread flooding that killed one person and shut down the city. Fung-wong has grown disorganized by its passage over Luzon, and is not expected to become a typhoon when it heads north and affects China this weekend.


Figure 5. Residents are rescued by police and rescue volunteers after continued monsoon rains enhanced by tropical storm Fung-Wong inundated parts of Marikina on September 19, 2014 in Manila, Philippines. Thousands were forcibly evacuated from their homes after heavy rains caused flooding in major parts of the metropolis, shutting down schools and government offices. (Photo by Dondi Tawatao/Getty Images)

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Here's day 1 from the HPC. Not done yet Doc!!

thanks doc nice new page
Then Day two. Still not done!!

Thanks, Dr. Masters.
Day 3. STILL Not done!! Lots of rain. Boy lots of it!!

An influx of moisture continues to hammer the southwest. Now today it's Florida's turn. GatorWx was talking about the heavy rain on him today...
GFS has something coming into the lower gulf around the 29th of sept...................................
Quoting 7. LargoFl:

GFS has something coming into the lower gulf around the 29th of sept...................................

I think around November 1 or 2nd Accuweather on their 45 day outlook (LOVE THAT OUTLOOK!!) had like 4 inches of rain for Mobile. That could be a hurricane down the road. Time will tell.
Quoting 8. CumberlandPlateau:


I think around November 1 or 2nd Accuweather on their 45 day outlook (LOVE THAT OUTLOOK!!) had like 4 inches of rain for Mobile. That could be a hurricane down the road. Time will tell.
yes this time of year we always watch the gulf for systems..
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
955 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH DEEP
MOISTURE FILLING BACK INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ALSO EVIDENCED IN
REGIONAL MORNING SOUNDINGS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF ARE PUSHING INTO THE COAST...THOUGH
FOR RIGHT NOW...RAINS ARE NOT MAKING IT TOO FAR INLAND EXCEPT OVER
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS A BIT HIGHER AND CAN
SUSTAIN SOME WEAK CONVECTION. THE KTBW 12Z SOUNDING DOES SHOW A
POCKET OF DRIER AIR BELOW 600MB...SO EXPECT THIS LAYER TO
MOISTEN UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND ALLOW THE RAIN COVERAGE TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE. CLOUDY SKIES AND LONG PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
LIKELY PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM RISING OUT OF THE LOW TO MID 80S
AT MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE BUMPED DOWN ABOUT A DEGREE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
POINT AND CLICK FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED AND ZONE FORECASTS
WILL BE SENT OUT SHORTLY.
Drought buster!!

Quoting skyepony
After reading & blogging on Odie's aftermath. I'm not really convinced that is the safest town to visit. One story yesterday..the guy made it through the looting & all yesterday but he had been pickpocketed on arrival days before the storm.. It's something warned against.. The State Department advises keeping an eye on bartenders and bar staff as well. Resort-town clubs have been known to slip drugs into customers' drinks. And as in any resort town, beware of pickpockets. & this is true for any tourist.. If you are a tourist in Orlando consider your self as a potential target for someone.

Hi Sky, You're right and was bad before the hurricane. I know because we have a condo there and visit regularly. There is a lot of crime there mostly because of drug cartels and anyone that leave out west can tell you this is true despite what some think on here.


current wave moving through the islands this morning,shows marginal circulation in the loop of the region
Anyone heard from ricderr as the flooding is pretty bad in El-Paso?

Heavy rain also caused flooding in far West Texas, where a portion of Interstate 10 remained closed for several hours Wednesday night and fire crews responded to more than 100 weather-related calls. Forecasters issued a flash flood watch through Thursday night for the El Paso area, where two people were rescued from a swamped vehicle. A third person who swam to safety was being treated for minor injuries, El Paso Fire Department Battalion Chief Carlos Franco said. "We're moving, we can't live here anymore," said Jess Contreras, whose house flooded Wednesday night. His and other homes located at the lowest end of a central El Paso street flooded with about a foot of water. "This is like a funnel, all the water that comes from the mountains, from other streets just comes down here," he said. Greg Lundeen, a National Weather Service meteorologist for the El Paso area, said some areas of east El Paso received up to 3 inches of rain in an hour Wednesday night and that rain is expected to continue falling over the next 18 hours. Several hundred homes and businesses in the El Paso area lost electricity, according to El Paso Electric. In southeastern New Mexico, the town of La Union saw up to 3 inches of rainfall, forcing residents to scramble to keep water out of their homes. 2014 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed. Learn more about our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use.

Read More at: http://news4sanantonio.com/news/features/top-stori es/stories/deputy-missing-during-flooding-15580.sh tml
Odile is even giving people in Houston lots of unexpected rains as its mid and upper level moisture shoots off to the east. Also notice that big MCS in Canada!

Quoting 8. CumberlandPlateau:


I think around November 1 or 2nd Accuweather on their 45 day outlook (LOVE THAT OUTLOOK!!) had like 4 inches of rain for Mobile. That could be a hurricane down the road. Time will tell.

Karen part 2?
Rain is getting closer.

Quoting 11. CumberlandPlateau:

Drought buster!!


Not for the poor folks in California.




good blog!!
Going to be a lot of rain over the next 2 days in S FL!
Latest NAM continues to train this tropical moisture across FL into early next week.

Quoting 20. SFLWeatherman:

Going to be a lot of rain over the next 2 days in S FL!



On the same page at the sametime. We think to much alike it seems.
NHC is confused about Polo's intensity too, it seems.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
800 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

... POLO FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 107.7W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES

TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
800 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Data from a SSMI/S satellite at 1144 UTC revealed that the center
of Polo was a little farther to the southeast than previously
indicated. The initial position has then been adjusted accordingly.

The cloud pattern has not changed very much, and a blend of
satellite intensity estimates with an earlier ASCAT pass is
consistent in keeping the winds at 60 kt. Most of the guidance
show a significant increase in the easterly shear over Polo, and
with cooler waters along the expected track of Polo, the NHC
forecast calls for weakening. Polo will likely be a remnant low in
96 hours or earlier.
Quoting 20. SFLWeatherman:

Going to be a lot of rain over the next 2 days in S FL!



I have been saying that the patter was going to turn wet across FL and here it is and if the GFS & Euro are to be believed then this pattern will stay in place for the next 2 weeks.
Thanks Dr. and have a good weekend. This has clearly been the season for the Tropical Pacific and particularly the E-Pac.
Nice weekend for Florida College football fans to watch all the games on TV tomorrow:

Rain has just started in the Fort Myers area. It's raining at the beach and across the west and south side of town.

Image of the downtown area of Fort Myers as the rain moves into the city.
29. 7544
Quoting 20. SFLWeatherman:

Going to be a lot of rain over the next 2 days in S FL!



yep and the blob seems to be growing wait till it gets going to the east coast se fl
Quoting 17. StormTrackerScott:

Rain is getting closer.




when will the western carib get their share!
Quoting superpete:

current wave moving through the islands this morning,shows marginal circulation in the loop of the region

Has decent amount of vort at 925,850,700, and 500mbs

Shear is a bit high but W Carib shear should decrease as a large/broad upper level anticyclone continues to develop and move into SW Carib
Although that upper low/trof in the NW Carib just may hinder

Anyway one could hope what ever happens it will bring rain

Quoting 21. StormTrackerScott:

Latest NAM continues to train this tropical moisture across FL into early next week.




Thanks for letting us know you think it's going to rain in FL Scott. I appreciate the head's up. I can't wait to read the same forecast from you again tomorrow.
Impressive to say the least.
Tropical disturbance in eastern Caribbean Sea shows signs of organization and low level spin. There is some 850mb vorticity support for this system, but as some have already stated shear is strong in this region.
Quoting 35. Sfloridacat5:

Impressive to say the least.


The heaviest of it has remained in the Gulf all day.
Seems to be currently stationary. Will be interesting to see if shear abates.


Quoting 36. TheDawnAwakening:

Tropical disturbance in eastern Caribbean Sea shows signs of organization and low level spin. There is some 850mb vorticity support for this system, but as some have already stated shear is strong in this region.
Thanks Jeff...
Happy National POW/MIA and International Talk Like a Pirate Day. Which means after work today, as you raise a glass to all POW/MIA's past, present and future, say "Arrgg" as you do it...
The blob that ate Florida.

Quoting 40. SFLWeatherman:


Quoting 42. HaoleboySurfEC:

The blob that ate Florida.




At least the Everglades won't have drought conditions.
Quoting 13. superpete:


current wave moving through the islands this morning,shows marginal circulation in the loop of the region


There does appear to be some spin just north of Grenada. Shear seems quite high though. :)
12z GFS takes that Florida low and blows it up into a 992mb low up in the North Atlantic.

"Record" ... "When I use a word," Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, "it means just what I choose it to mean—neither more nor less." (Denier definition)
Thanks for the New Post Dr. Masters,
Quoting 45. GatorWX:


There does appear to be some spin just north of Grenada. Shear seems quite high though. :)


It's the 'year of shear' I think...
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
12z GFS takes that Florida low and blows it up into a 992mb low up in the North Atlantic.

Maybe as a names storm,
Of note, the SpaceX Falcon 9 will be launching the Dragon to the ISS tonight/early tomorrow morning. In the Dragon's trunk will be the long awaited RapidScat satellite, the replacement for the QuikSCAT satellite that failed in 2009. Hopefully, it'll be up by the end of this hurricane season.. if not, we'll get to see its data in 2015.

ISS-RapidScat Mission Info
Quoting 53. CybrTeddy:

Of note, the SpaceX Falcon 9 will be launching the Dragon to the ISS tonight/early tomorrow morning. In the Dragon's trunk will be the long awaited RapidScat satellite, the replacement for the QuikSCAT satellite that failed in 2009. Hopefully, it'll be up by the end of this hurricane season.. if not, we'll get to see its data in 2015.

ISS-RapidScat Mission Info


FInally a replacement is en route. Very excited about that.
Quoting 44. mobilesmith:



At least the Everglades won't have drought conditions.
Parched pythons rejoice!
Quoting 51. tampabaymatt:


....waiting for STS to post the one random ensemble that takes the low back into FL with flooding rains. it should be coming any minute now.


Could you give it a rest? Thanks
Quoting 35. Sfloridacat5:

Do you or anybody have an idea what it's going to do? It's got big purple on TCFP.
Quoting 43. TropicalAnalystwx13:




Least we got our major and at its peak, looked pretty good with all things considered.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
948 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE 12Z SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWED A DEEP WESTERLY COMPONENT TO
THE WIND...AND THIS IS DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WAS LOCATED OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...AND LIGHT/MODERATE SHOWERS
AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WERE PUSHING INTO THE GULF COAST
THIS MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS AND EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF SOUTH FLORIDA
AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THE DIGGING SHORTWAVE WILL REINFORCE
THIS FEATURE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION AND THEN PUSH
INTO THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT.

THE DIGGING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE EXTENT OF THE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT THE
GULF COAST WILL HAVE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...BUT THE EAST COAST COULD HAVE SOME LIMITED INSOLATION AND
SLIGHTLY DEEPER CONVECTION.

MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS DUE TO THE REASONS MENTIONED ABOVE. THE
CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE HAS AN AREAL AVERAGE OF AN INCH OF RAIN
FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. SO SOME AREAS COULD RECEIVE HIGHER
AMOUNTS. PONDING ON ROADWAYS AND ISOLATED STREET FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.
Akin to a dusting so far. Until these cells actually move ashore, really not expecting much. It's all been blow off so far. Looks like the main energy is still 50-100 miles offshore. It'll get here eventually, but as I said earlier, I expect the majority of the rain to fall north of Sarasota.

63. JRRP
Like a winter Nor'easter. Good waves OBX northward.

Seems like we had a late CV system, skipped fall and now heading toward a winter pattern. Still think conditions will allow for an enormous subtropical/hybrid storm off the east coast this fall/early winter.

Quoting 46. Sfloridacat5:

12z GFS takes that Florida low and blows it up into a 992mb low up in the North Atlantic.


If an El Nino or moderate conditions do finally fall (literally) into place for the Fall and Winter, then we get (in the Mississippi Delta and the SE) those lower trajectory winter systems and lows that plow across the Gulf region and than swing around as Nor'Easters....................This current set-up may end up as a tropical or subtropical system if the forecasted low does deepen off of Florida but the more typical Nor'Eastern scenario usually unfolds in the Winter months from November through February and early Spring. I am still waiting to see what this Winter will bring in terms of the Enso cycle (Mother Nature still needs to make up it's mind as to which way we will go).
Quoting NttyGrtty:
Happy National POW/MIA and International Talk Like a Pirate Day. Which means after work today, as you raise a glass to all POW/MIA's past, present and future, say "Arrgg" as you do it...

IIRC, Dunkin' Donuts will give you a free doughnut if you talk like a pirate. :)


lots of rain coming
Quoting 69. hurricanes2018:



lots of rain coming

Thanks Captain
Quoting 69. hurricanes2018:



lots of rain coming
yes just about here whew..
Shear is still over the top around Florida and the past 24 hour tendency has been for increased shear:


Quoting 53. CybrTeddy:

Of note, the SpaceX Falcon 9 will be launching the Dragon to the ISS tonight/early tomorrow morning. In the Dragon's trunk will be the long awaited RapidScat satellite, the replacement for the QuikSCAT satellite that failed in 2009. Hopefully, it'll be up by the end of this hurricane season.. if not, we'll get to see its data in 2015.

ISS-RapidScat Mission Info


Great news. I can't wait to see the first data of the RapidScat.

Heed your local warnings folks............................................. ...............SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
104 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

FLZ067-068-168-191745-
COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-METRO PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-
INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-
104 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN COASTAL PALM BEACH
COUNTY...NORTHERN METRO PALM BEACH COUNTY AND NORTHEASTERN INLAND
PALM BEACH COUNTY...

* UNTIL 145 PM EDT

* AT 104 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PALM BEACH GARDENS...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

FUNNEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY TOUCH DOWN AND PRODUCE TORNADOES. MOVE
INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
WEST PALM BEACH...JUPITER...PALM BEACH GARDENS...RIVIERA BEACH...
TEQUESTA...JUNO BEACH...NORTH PALM BEACH...LAKE PARK...JUNO
RIDGE...NORTH COUNTY AIRPORT...LIMESTONE CREEK...FAU NORTH CAMPUS
AND JUPITER FARMS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FUNNEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY TOUCH DOWN AND PRODUCE TORNADOES. MOVE
INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&
Quoting GatorWX:
Akin to a dusting so far. Until these cells actually move ashore, really not expecting much. It's all been blow off so far. Looks like the main energy is still 50-100 miles offshore. It'll get here eventually, but as I said earlier, I expect the majority of the rain to fall north of Sarasota.



So far I've picked up .16" here in South Fort Myers and it's currently raining lightly.
So far more bark than bite with this system, but there's still a lot off shore and several more days of rain.
By early next week the rain totals should start to add up. Only 2.43" for the month in my weather station for September.

Little late i think.
UK Met seeing two east coasters, funny how first one goes from 50 kts to "too weak to track"


NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 28.7N 79.9W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.09.2014 24 28.7N 79.9W 1010 27
0000UTC 21.09.2014 36 30.6N 77.5W 1006 30
1200UTC 21.09.2014 48 34.6N 74.2W 1003 35
0000UTC 22.09.2014 60 39.3N 68.1W 995 43
1200UTC 22.09.2014 72 46.2N 60.5W 989 50
0000UTC 23.09.2014 84 TOO WEAK TO TRACK
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 34.6N 74.2W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.09.2014 96 34.6N 74.2W 1013 34
0000UTC 24.09.2014 108 37.2N 72.9W 1007 49
1200UTC 24.09.2014 120 37.8N 73.1W 1006 49
0000UTC 25.09.2014 132 37.6N 73.6W 1011 41
1200UTC 25.09.2014 144 38.2N 73.6W 1013 34
If an El Nino or moderate conditions do finally fall (literally) into place for the Fall and Winter, then we get (in the Mississippi Delta and the SE) those lower trajectory winter systems and lows that plow across the Gulf region and than swing around as Nor'Easters....................This current set-up may end up as a tropical or subtropical system if the forecasted low does deepen off of Florida but the more typical Nor'Eastern scenario usually unfolds in the Winter months from November through February and early Spring. I am still waiting to see what this Winter will bring in terms of the Enso cycle (Mother Nature still needs to make up it's mind as to which way we will go).




things are finally firmly in place.......tradewinds are actually cooperating...now it's just a watch and wait
Quoting 76. Sfloridacat5:



So far I've picked up .16" and it's currently raining lightly.
So far more bark than bite with this system, but there's still a lot off shore and several more days of rain.
By early next week the rain totals should start to add up. Only 2.43" for the month in my weather station for September.




I was simply referring to today and along the coast. Inland areas east of me will likely pick up more. Gloomy weekend perhaps? Booo!
USF playing UCONN tonight at home on Espn. With this rain moving in should be a good game to watch.

GatorWX what's the name of your restaurant? We're always looking for a new place to tryout.
Nice general circulation just west of Tampa in the GOM.
Quoting 80. ricderr:

things are finally firmly in place.......tradewinds are actually cooperating...now it's just a watch and wait

How are your rainfall amounts stacking up? Hope you live on high ground.
After three days of rain the sun is finally out.
Closer look at the circulation west of Tampa.
You can see storms being pulled to the west (away from the coast) into the circulation.

88. JRRP
Quoting Gearsts:
Little late i think.

yeah like GFS long range
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
138 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

FLZ067-068-168-191815-
COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-METRO PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-
INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-
138 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY...

* AT 135 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER KINGS POINT...OR NEAR DELRAY BEACH...
MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
WEST PALM BEACH...BOCA RATON...BOYNTON BEACH...DELRAY BEACH...
WELLINGTON...LAKE WORTH...PALM BEACH...HIGHLAND BEACH...OCEAN
RIDGE...GREENACRES...ROYAL PALM BEACH...PALM SPRINGS...LANTANA...
ATLANTIS...CLOUD LAKE...VILLAGE OF GOLF...GUN CLUB ESTATES...
WHISPER WALK...ROYAL PALM ESTATES AND KINGS POINT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS ACTIVITY WAS ALSO DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR THE
FORMATION OF FUNNEL CLOUDS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND
LOCAL MEDIA FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...CAUSING TEMPORARY PONDING ON
SOME ROADS AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MOTORISTS
SHOULD SLOW DOWN IN HEAVY RAINFALL TO REDUCE THE RISK OF HYDROPLANING
AND LEAVE A SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN OTHER VEHICLES.

RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&
90. JRRP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Edouard, located several hundred miles west of the western
Azores.

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of
low pressure located a couple hundred miles southeast of the Cape
Verde Islands has changed little in organization this morning.
While some development of this system is possible during the next
day or two, upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive
after that time. This low should move generally northwestward and
could bring heavy rainfall to portions of the Cape Verde Islands
this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Quoting 83. Sfloridacat5:

Nice general circulation just west of Tampa in the GOM.

yeah im beginning to get stronger rain here by me now.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Edouard, located several hundred miles west of the western
Azores.

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of
low pressure located a couple hundred miles southeast of the Cape
Verde Islands has changed little in organization this morning.
While some development of this system is possible during the next
day or two, upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive
after that time. This low should move generally northwestward and
could bring heavy rainfall to portions of the Cape Verde Islands
this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
153 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

FLZ058-191845-
OKEECHOBEE-
153 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...FUNNEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN OKEECHOBEE COUNTY...

AT 148 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FUNNEL CLOUDS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER
OKEECHOBEE...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE GUSTY WINDS
AND FUNNEL CLOUDS INCLUDE FOUR SEASONS ESTATES.

FUNNEL CLOUDS CAN OCCASIONALLY TOUCH DOWN AND PRODUCE BRIEF...SMALL
TORNADOES. MOVE INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
WOW~ Check out how fast that gulf blob is pulling together on ASCAT...

14:47z



15:35z
How are your rainfall amounts stacking up? Hope you live on high ground.


it's sounded better than it was......weds night we had a downpour.......around an inch in an hour.....maybe more in the hills...but there's no measuring and you can't trust the radar estimates....so we had a flood though the central part of el paso.....traffic down to two lanes on i10.....cars stalled out...but even last year it was worse as i10 was flooded out for a day.....so...a friend of mine had called me and said he read how bad it was....but yeah.....it was the most serious tropical moisture we had in quite some time....and any rain is awesome..but really no big deal
Quoting 70. AztecCe:


Thanks Captain



Is that Dr. Masters? Very impressive get-up!
Quoting 94. Skyepony:

WOW~ Check out how fast that gulf blob is pulling together on ASCAT...

14:47z



15:35z

yes nws is saying it may get stronger,they just cant tell for sure yet..its going to be an interesting afternoon and evening around florida alright.
Quoting 90. JRRP:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Edouard, located several hundred miles west of the western
Azores.

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of
low pressure located a couple hundred miles southeast of the Cape
Verde Islands has changed little in organization this morning.
While some development of this system is possible during the next
day or two, upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive
after that time. This low should move generally northwestward and
could bring heavy rainfall to portions of the Cape Verde Islands
this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


Next!
Quoting Skyepony:
WOW~ Check out how fast that gulf blob is pulling together on ASCAT...

14:47z



15:35z


That's pretty cool. This could very well be the low that ends up going up the eastcoast.
Hmmm CMC and ECMWF

Quoting 99. LargoFl:

yes nws is saying it may get stronger,they just cant tell for sure yet..its going to be an interesting afternoon and evening around florida alright.


We had a gust of around 10 kts down here earlier. About .1" of rain also. So far, nothing to write home about. 92 had a little more oomph!
Quoting 105. GatorWX:



We had a gust of around 10 kts down here earlier. About .1" of rain also. So far, nothing to write home about. 92 had a little more oomph!
yeah rains nothing like it was the other day..at least so far.
Quoting 91. LargoFl:

yeah im beginning to get stronger rain here by me now.


20 miles ne of tpa, covered with clouds but extremely light ... no accumulation in tipping bucket or analog guages ... seems to break up over land
Hopefully those east coast florida area's that didnt get that deluge of rain the other day will get some today as that low crosses florida.
The 06z GFS wind shear map is showing an upper level anticyclone developing almost over the entire GOM in 8 days. Pressures are forecasted to drop as well along the same time period. IF we have a developing system in the Gulf at that time and the upper level anticyclone developes.....Upper level winds will be very favorable for developement.
Quoting LargoFl:
yes nws is saying it may get stronger,they just cant tell for sure yet..its going to be an interesting afternoon and evening around florida alright.


The radar is full, That's for sure. I don't think we're going to get the heavy rains that we saw Tuesday in which isolated areas got 4-6". All the rain looks light to moderate on radar for the bay area. I think a wide swath of 1" rains looks reasonable. Now if some areas to our east and south could get a heavier storm with higher rain totals.
Quoting LargoFl:
Hopefully those east coast florida area's that didnt get that deluge of rain the other day will get some today as that low crosses florida.


Looks like the circulation will go very close to your location. Most likely why they put out an advisory for funnel clouds in your area.
Quoting 111. Sfloridacat5:



Looks like the circulation will go very close to your location. Most likely why they put out an advisory for funnel clouds in your area.

thanks for that..going to be an interesting evening as that Low passes over us.
Good afternoon fellow bloggers! How's everything today?
Quoting 104. SFLWeatherman:

Hmmm CMC and ECMWF




Euro is putting out some insane rainfall amounts across FL the next 10 days. Could be some September rainfall records by the end of this month as it looks extremely wet the next 2 weeks. Likely will begin to see flooding of low lying areas as days of this heavy rain begin to cause problems.
Quoting 110. jrweatherman:



The radar is full, That's for sure. I don't think we're going to get the heavy rains that we saw Tuesday in which isolated areas got 4-6". All the rain looks light to moderate on radar for the bay area. I think a wide swath of 1" rains looks reasonable. Now if some areas to our east and south could get a heavier storm with higher rain totals.


3 words look at Euro. Yikes!
Quoting 35. Sfloridacat5:

Impressive to say the least.



Can't say I didn't tell you it was coming. We just got a quick .53" here in Altamonte Springs/Maitland
Quoting ricderr:
How are your rainfall amounts stacking up? Hope you live on high ground.


it's sounded better than it was......weds night we had a downpour.......around an inch in an hour.....maybe more in the hills...but there's no measuring and you can't trust the radar estimates....so we had a flood though the central part of el paso.....traffic down to two lanes on i10.....cars stalled out...but even last year it was worse as i10 was flooded out for a day.....so...a friend of mine had called me and said he read how bad it was....but yeah.....it was the most serious tropical moisture we had in quite some time....and any rain is awesome..but really no big deal


Plenty of CoCoRaHS measurements from El Paso County. This map shows reports for the 24 hours preceding 07:00 on 9/18/2014.

www.cocorahs.org

I just wonder to which extent Odile's rainfalls eventually will ease the drought situation in the Southwestern US, especial considering the low levels of the water reservoirs.
Rain is starting to fill in. Still only .18" down here in Fort Myers and currently it's not raining. Looks like some areas over on the east coast are getting some heavy rain.
Scott, NWS in Melbourne is only calling for showers next week that's about it. What do they see that we don't?
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Euro is putting out some insane rainfall amounts across FL the next 10 days. Could be some September rainfall records by the end of this month as it looks extremely wet the next 2 weeks. Likely will begin to see flooding of low lying areas as days of this heavy rain begin to cause problems.
We should see the pressure drop and I think the lowest pressure is a little to the east of where they currently have it.

Quoting 112. LargoFl:

thanks for that..going to be an interesting evening as that Low passes over us.

According to the NWS there is no low atm.
There is a low that's expected to form overnite just off the SEFL coast, around Jupiter or so. Low then to proceed NNE/NE
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Can't say I didn't tell you it was coming. We just got a quick .53" here in Altamonte Springs/Maitland
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Can't say I didn't tell you it was coming. We just got a quick .53" here in Altamonte Springs/Maitland


Scott, a lots of folks were forecasting rain for Florida today, not just you.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


3 words look at Euro. Yikes!


Is the Euro forecasting 4-6" for us today or over the next 5-10 days. I was speaking about just today.
Quoting Matthias1967:
I just wonder to which extent Odile's rainfalls eventually will ease the drought situation in the Southwestern US, especial considering the low levels of the water reservoirs.


It should provide some drought respite, but reservoir levels will possibly remain suppressed, for want of a better word. We were/are having a similar situation along Jamaica's south coast. The aforementioned area had very little rainfall during the period June-July (close to zero mm). This led to severe drought being declared.

Fortunately, most of our water resources are stored in the form of groundwater. But water restriction s are widespread across our largest metro, largely because the area is dominating by alluvial soil. Rainfall has markedly improved, but reservoir levels are still relatively low.

In terms of the drought in the SW US, the rainfall should definitely boost the agriculture sector.
Has anyone got a pair of striped azz baboons, and female unicorn? Please let me know forthwith that I may close and seal up the ramp to the ark I have built in my garag, before de flood hits Orlando.
Here are more details about the replacement of QuikScat that CT posted earlier that will be installed at the ISS. (RapidScat) Hopefully,it begins to send the data in the coming days or weeks.

Link
Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 12:54 PM PDT on September 19, 2014
Clear
77.5 °F
Clear
Heat Index: 79 °F
Humidity: 56%
Dew Point: 60 °F
Wind: 4.0 mph Variable
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Pressure: 29.84 in (Falling)
Big relief, 3 days ago at this time it was 102.3..sweet
Quoting 118. Matthias1967:

I just wonder to which extent Odile's rainfalls eventually will ease the drought situation in the Southwestern US, especial considering the low levels of the water reservoirs.

Not in California. Thus far, no widespread long durational rains over the Sierra watershed. That would be unusual anyway during summer. More likely during the winter rainy season.
Is any one else having issues with the blog, it's stretched.
I have a feeling we'll see three impressive typhoons recurve harmlessly out to sea from the NW Pacific to the Aleutians over the next two weeks!!! Though I can't entirely rule out Japan.
Quoting 126. Look2thesky:

Has anyone got a pair of striped azz baboons, and female unicorn? Please let me know forthwith that I may close and seal up the ramp to the ark I have built in my garag, before de flood hits Orlando.


So you already have the male Unicorn???


If you forget the skeeters, we'll forgive you.

Meanwhile in DC I'm experiencing, partly sunny, highs in the 70s, lows in the 50s, little warmer this weekend and cooler next week. Early to mid boreal Autumn is often really pleasant here. No complaints this week.

Streetlights have gone on in Sebring, its as dark as night outside..... pouring rain.... Hope it rains alllllll night!
Quoting 126. Look2thesky:

Has anyone got a pair of striped azz baboons, and female unicorn? Please let me know forthwith that I may close and seal up the ramp to the ark I have built in my garag, before de flood hits Orlando.
dont listen..take all the skeeters you can find lol
Quoting 133. georgevandenberghe:



So you already have the male Unicorn???


If you forget the skeeters, we'll forgive you.

Meanwhile in DC I'm experiencing, partly sunny, highs in the 70s, lows in the 50s, little warmer this weekend and cooler next week. Early to mid boreal Autumn is often really pleasant here. No complaints this week.


Not to mention low humidity and breezy conditions.I wish the weather could be like this all fall until late November when the really cold stuff starts pouring in.
Quoting 126. Look2thesky:

Has anyone got a pair of striped azz baboons, and female unicorn? Please let me know forthwith that I may close and seal up the ramp to the ark I have built in my garag, before de flood hits Orlando.


Here are your other closet ark locations.........................................


With almost exactly forty days and forty nights left in South Florida’s rainy season, now might be a good moment to consider the options.

Globally, four Noah’s Arks have been either completed or started in the last few years.

As of last March, one-tenth of a life-sized ark -- 150-feet worth -- sat just outside Hialeah, part of the $1.5 million Hidden Ark project. (An update on that later.)

Lu’s ark in China, a relatively small boat, was reportedly built to survive the December 21, 2012 apocalypse predicted by the Mayan calendar.

Ark Encounter, a project of the Creation Museum in Petersburg, Kentucky, has already raised more than $13 million of their $24.5 million goal. (The full-size ark alone will cost an estimated $21 million.)

It's a big mess out there in the Gulf and over Florida this afternoon:



12z CMC model brings a hurricane near New England, this is what I was talking about yesterday. The model develops a more than ideal environment with an upper level anticyclone developing overhead the low level circulation. This allows a tropical cyclone to develop. I believe the system develops from the elongated vorticity max over western Florida and the eastern GOM.
Very interesting day weather wise over the TBA. There seems to be a low level low offshore, a mid level circulation drifting wnw over central florida, and an upper level low forming over the whole state... 
The PM Cimss shear and vort charts.........A little different profile from earlier today but shear still very high over the frontal boundry in the Gulf and the surface vort is rather elongated across a few hundred miles. Not the best recipe for any development on the Gulf side of the equation:









Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
12z CMC model brings a hurricane near New England, this is what I was talking about yesterday. The model develops a more than ideal environment with an upper level anticyclone developing overhead the low level circulation. This allows a tropical cyclone to develop. I believe the system develops from the elongated vorticity max over western Florida and the eastern GOM.


Not tropical.

Just me or is the rain in florida moving every direction? Weird radar.
Incredible Rainstorm in Southern France
By: Christopher C. Burt , 2:50 PM CDT on September 19, 2014


Incredible Rainstorm in Southern France

Torrential rainfall Tuesday through Thursday morning (September 16-18) in the Languedoc Region of southern France has resulted in flooding that has killed at least four people with two others still missing. The rainfall rates during the storm were phenomenal.
Heads up Central Florida

0352 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 10 ENE FLORIDANA BEACH 28.00N 80.34W
09/19/2014 AMZ552 FL TRAINED SPOTTER

A FUNNEL CLOUD WAS REPORTED EAST OF US-1 IN THE MALABAR
AREA. THE FEATURE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING SHOWER
APPROXIMATELY 10 MILES OFFSHORE SPESSARD HOLLAND PARK
NEAR MELBOURNE BEACH. THE FUNNEL CLOUD LASTED
APPROXIMATELY 15 MINUTES BEFORE DISSIPATING.


0145 PM FUNNEL CLOUD WITHAM FIELD 27.18N 80.22W
09/19/2014 MARTIN FL ASOS

STUART ASOS REPORTED FUNNERL CLOUD 7 MILES EAST OF SUA
FROM 1345 EDT TO 1351 EDT.

spin south of Louisiana also..
Quoting 147. BobinTampa:

Just me or is the rain in florida moving every direction? Weird radar.


It is moving in different directions. Stalled or slowly moving frontal trofs tend to drift around and hard to forecast either way as they drift around. Looking at the radar loops, it seems like some of the "drift" is moving towards the East, along with the front, and some of the cells and rain are drifting to the West. Not sure exactly why but it might have to do with some of the movement in the lower levels towards the supposed "low" and some of the higher elevation clouds and rain embedded in the front. Either way, it's a slow crawl at the moment.
Thank you for the response. Radar looked completely random. :)

Quoting 151. weathermanwannabe:



It is moving in different directions. Stalled or slowly moving frontal trofs tend to drift around and hard to forecast either way as they drift around. Looking at the radar loops, it seems like some of the "drift" is moving towards the East, along with the front, and some of the cells and rain are drifting to the West. Not sure exactly why but it might have to do with some of the movement in the lower levels towards the supposed "low" and some of the higher elevation clouds and rain embedded in the front. Either way, it's a slow crawl at the moment.
I thought we would get more rain here in east central Florida, it looks to be letting up some from the south though.
Quoting 154. BobinTampa:

Thank you for the response. Radar looked completely random. :)




It is pretty random at the moment with no signs of organization..............Have to wait to see how the next few days unfold and whether the whole area can (or cannot) consolidate under a lower shear environment than at present. It might not happen until the Atlantic side of things in a few days before NHC busts out the yellow low percentage crayon.

Gonna head out for the day................Enjoy college football this weekend. The Wife just sent me a picture of the Goodyear Blimp over her office near FSU in town for the FSU-Clemson game tomorrow.

See Yall on Monday unless NHC busts out some crayons over the weekend.............................Stay safe and Dry.
OK, it is a model at 348 hours, the half resolution control run of the Euro ensemble, run 15 days with the same initialization as the op Euro, but a TC landfall near Pensacola. Op Euro shows pressures slowly falling in the BoC, as does the control, so who knows?

The entire Euro ensemble means have lower than normal pressure in the BoC, but no really clear signal of a TC. But the half resolution Euro control ensemble member runs as the same resolution of the op GFS before the truncation, has a better initialization scheme, and is less likely to fire up the at least once a day Gulf 14 or 16 day hurricane during the season.

The Euro could be wrong. But I trust it more than the GFS, which seems worthless beyond the wave number truncation.
That's more like it, huh Ped. But, you have a higher dew pt than S C IL, that's rare! Currently 76 w/ a 54 dew pt, hit the forecast high of 78. Light easterly to SE winds, 30.03". Hoping the forecast showers hold off until later Sat nite, have a 4whlr ride, cookout, bonfire tomorrow afternoon/evening we'd like to get in b4 then. Looks like perfect harvest weather for the farmers after that, mid 70s highs, low 50s lows & sunshine, nice start to fall!
Partly Sunny here at the Galleria since about Noon. I wonder if the atmosphere has recharged enough for one more round.

The bayou that runs under the I-45/I-10 intersection was well outside its concrete channel, and not far from being over the banks.

Fresh water flooding of the bayous in downtown, it happened during Allison in 2001, and during the daylight hours before Ike, before any rain, Buffalo Bayou at UH-Downtown has risen 6 feet, I guess from the tide, which I can understand, but why water does drain faster out of the bayous and into Galveston Bay via the ship channel, that, I'm not clear on.

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
500 PM AST FRI SEP 19 2014

...EDOUARD BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.5N 37.5W
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM W OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.5 WEST.
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 7 MPH...11
KM/H. A GENERAL EASTWARD MOTION WITH INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...AND EDOUARD IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY AND DISSIPATE LATER
THIS WEEKEND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON EDOUARD. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
500 PM AST FRI SEP 19 2014

Satellite imagery indicates that Edouard consists of a large but
tight swirl of low-level clouds. Since the cyclone has been absent
any deep convection for more than 12 hours, Edouard is being
declared a post-tropical cyclone at this time. A blend of the 1800
UTC TAFB Dvorak CI and Final-T numbers suggests an initial intensity
of 35 kt, which is in basic agreement with a morning ASCAT pass.
Post-tropical cyclone Edouard should continue moving over cooler
waters and in an environment of strong northwesterly wind shear.
Thus, additional weakening is expected during the next day or so
prior to Edouard becoming extratropical in about 36 hours when it
merges with a front.

Although the center of the cyclone jogged southeastward earlier this
morning, it has since resumed an eastward motion at a faster forward
speed or 090/06. Now a shallow feature, Edouard should accelerate
eastward on the north side of a low-level ridge of high pressure
during the next 24 hours. The track should then bend southeastward
and southward around the flow associated with a mid-latitude cyclone
over the northeastern Atlantic. The track forecast is basically an
update of the previous one, only shifted slightly to the left to be
in line with the TVCA multi-model consensus.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on Edouard. Additional information on this system can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 39.5N 37.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 20/0600Z 39.4N 36.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 20/1800Z 39.0N 33.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 21/0600Z 38.0N 31.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 21/1800Z 36.3N 30.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
Quoting 158. EdMahmoud:

OK, it is a model at 348 hours, the half resolution control run of the Euro ensemble, run 15 days with the same initialization as the op Euro, but a TC landfall near Pensacola. Op Euro shows pressures slowly falling in the BoC, as does the control, so who knows?

The entire Euro ensemble means have lower than normal pressure in the BoC, but no really clear signal of a TC. But the half resolution Euro control ensemble member runs as the same resolution of the op GFS before the truncation, has a better initialization scheme, and is less likely to fire up the at least once a day Gulf 14 or 16 day hurricane during the season.

The Euro could be wrong. But I trust it more than the GFS, which seems worthless beyond the wave number truncation.

I don't think the Gulf storm has much credibility right now. It is odd that the Euro ensembles have suddenly become pretty aggressive with it. The CMC shows something also but it lacks ensemble support. And the GFS, which had been leading the charge, very abruptly dropped it on the 12z run, along with its ensembles. Obviously it's way out in time and things will continue to change, but for now it's nothing to worry about. I think the clock is ticking on this season. I don't know that we're done with named storms, but it wouldn't shock me if that's the case. We'll probably squeeze out one or two more though. Perhaps a significant one in the Caribbean or Gulf if we can get the shear to cooperate, but that will be a tall order. MJO isn't looking too favorable now either...



high wind shear hitting invest 95L right now.
http://www.wfla.com/category/252101/tampa-bay-inter active-weather-radar-st-petersburg-clearwater

If you animate, you'll see some rain going east, some west
Quoting 165. SunnyDaysFla:

http://www.wfla.com/category/252101/tampa-bay-inte r active-weather-radar-st-petersburg-clearwater

If you animate, you'll see some rain going east, some west


Big confusing mess over Florida. We should see everything come together over off the eastcoast tomorrow.

Today some areas of Florida saw no rain and some areas had some heavy rain (especially over on the eastcoast).
Should see a repeat tomorrow. There's a lot more rain out in the GOM. We should see on and off rain until the beginning of next week.
18Z GFS at 24 hours - this time tomorrow.

Low is right off the eastcoast of Fl.


48 hours - already passing the Outerbanks

Quoting 168. Sfloridacat5:

Big confusing mess over Florida. We should see everything come together over off the eastcoast tomorrow.

Today some areas of Florida saw no rain today and some areas had some heavy rain (especially over on the eastcoast).
Should see a repeat tomorrow. There's a lot more rain out in the GOM. We shoudl see on and off rain until the beginning of next week.



It looks like a warm front is developing from the Tampa area across through Melbourne based on radar data and surface analysis:



But this makes since, upper divergence is taking place across Florida associated with a shortwave trough this will induce lift, which is already occurring and pressure drops which will start with the formation of a frontal zone.
Quoting 129. PedleyCA:

Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 12:54 PM PDT on September 19, 2014
Clear
77.5 °F
Clear
Heat Index: 79 °F
Humidity: 56%
Dew Point: 60 °F
Wind: 4.0 mph Variable
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Pressure: 29.84 in (Falling)
Big relief, 3 days ago at this time it was 102.3..sweet


Enjoy 78 degrees, you guys deserve a cool down. Really deserve some rain.
wow those radars are killing my computer, thanks lol
Quoting Jedkins01:


It looks like a warm front is developing from the Tampa area across through Melbourne based on radar data and surface analysis:




Yeah, it pretty cool to see everything moving east to west across north Florida and everything moving west to east across Southern Florida.


all the heavy rain off the east coast
Quoting Hurricanes101:
wow those radars are killing my computer, thanks lol


Try using classic. I'm on an old laptop with a ton of windows open and everything is loading fast.
When I'm not using classic I have major loading issues.

http://classic.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/ article.html
Quoting 156. hurricanewatcher61:

I thought we would get more rain here in east central Florida, it looks to be letting up some from the south though.
its going to be raining off and on most if not all of the weekend local met is saying
actually todays rain here in florida is the good kind...the kind that soaks into the ground instead of running off...the aquifer really needs this
178. DDR
Very wet conditions in Trinidad&Tobago,rain and more rain>>>
Quoting 173. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, it pretty cool to see everything moving east to west across north Florida and everything moving west to east across Southern Florida.


Yep, its interesting that this pattern we are seeing is pretty characteristic of what's more common in El Nino with the subtropical jet leading to cyclogenesis around FL. Although typically as El nino really gets cranking, cyclogenesis often occurs in the central gulf and west of southern CA.

There is no way to say though if this is any way linked to El Nino, so I'm not jumping the gun. Its just interesting to notice the similarity. Its going to be tricky as far as this Winter and Spring goes. Because the signature of El Nino has been on and off, but yet is there enough to suggest that it could bring enhanced rainfall patterns to The southwest including CA, as well as Texas and FL. Hopefully we will see a signature EL Nino winter minus the severe weather, as it would help most of the areas that need it most rain wise right now. CA is in dire need, a wet El Nino-like pattern would be perfect for them this winter and Spring.

With that being said, I only brought up El Nino because synoptic pattern now through this upcoming week looks similar to EL Nino with an active subtropical jet across the Gulf and FL. However, typically El Nino doesn't really start to impact the weather here until winter and usually maximizes in Fall. Also, like I said, one pattern doesn't mean anything, and its too early by far to say if this has any connection.
Quoting 159. dabirds:

That's more like it, huh Ped. But, you have a higher dew pt than S C IL, that's rare! Currently 76 w/ a 54 dew pt, hit the forecast high of 78. Light easterly to SE winds, 30.03". Hoping the forecast showers hold off until later Sat nite, have a 4whlr ride, cookout, bonfire tomorrow afternoon/evening we'd like to get in b4 then. Looks like perfect harvest weather for the farmers after that, mid 70s highs, low 50s lows & sunshine, nice start to fall!

Huge Marine Layer this A.M. all the way back to Banning which is 25 miles inland from me. That might have something to do with it. But it is better than screaming Hot....
Quoting LargoFl:
actually todays rain here in florida is the good kind...the kind that soaks into the ground instead of running off...the aquifer really needs this


A solid band of moderate rain has really expanded across central and southern Pinellas and eastward. Going to get a bit more than I expected.
Local news has been showing a video from earlier today of a waterspout offshore of Venice Florida which is on the west coast between Fort Myers and Tampa.
NWS in Melbourne says 50% percent tomorrow 40% Sunday then tapers back down to 30% during the week. Just been hearing about so much rain from some bloggers here but haven't seen to much yet.
Quoting LargoFl:
its going to be raining off and on most if not all of the weekend local met is saying
Quoting 147. BobinTampa:

Just me or is the rain in florida moving every direction? Weird radar.


Using RGB the lower yellow clouds can be seen mostly moving east to west or stationary. The white upper clouds are racing west to east in the opposite direction. Shear is high.. With rain falling out of many of both the higher & lower clouds it gets that weird appearance of rain moving in different directions on radar.



GEOS-5 give FL a day break Sunday on the rain as a low that forms off ECFL moves away. Then takes trough remains & a wave.. it gets wet again for FL & just pushes it into the southeast. By day 4 AL & MS are in it good too. This just goes on through next Sunday..

Thursday


Week from Sunday
Plenty of rain to come.
Having a nice soaking, steady rain here.
The NAM has been hinting on its runs today that a piece of energy will get left behind in the GOM.
With the amount of convection currently in the GOM, it's not out of the question we could get another low to spin up on the tail end of the front.

18z NAM at 84 hours

189. flsky
We had a VERY strong storm come into ECFL from the Atlantic today. Heavy rain and strong winds. Seemed very strange b/c of the opposite direction approach of the gulf storm system.
Quoting 184. Skyepony:



Using RGB the lower yellow clouds can be seen mostly moving east to west or stationary. The white upper clouds are racing west to east in the opposite direction. Shear is high.. With rain falling out of many of both the higher & lower clouds it gets that weird appearance of rain moving in different directions on radar.




Quoting 187. Skyepony:

Having a nice soaking, steady rain here.


Quoting flsky:
We had a VERY strong storm come into ECFL from the Atlantic today. Heavy rain and strong winds. Seemed very strange b/c of the opposite direction approach of the gulf storm system.


Convergence over Central Florida. We should see a more organized low just off the eastcoast tomorrow that will start moving to the north/northeast.
Right now its in the process of forming right over the State.
Quoting 181. jrweatherman:



A solid band of moderate rain has really expanded across central and southern Pinellas and eastward. Going to get a bit more than I expected.
loving this kind of rain... badly needed in riverview..... and maybe more to come. im sure the aquifer is loving it also... fill that up before dry season.
Quoting 170. Jedkins01:



It looks like a warm front is developing from the Tampa area across through Melbourne based on radar data and surface analysis:



But this makes since, upper divergence is taking place across Florida associated with a shortwave trough this will induce lift, which is already occurring and pressure drops which will start with the formation of a frontal zone.



Well, according to this Link, the atmosphere has indeed finally responded.
Talk about a cone...I live in one. Skypony could probably explain why. No wonder we were chosen to Host the Space Program.
Quoting 144. CybrTeddy:



Not tropical.



I think any low that forms under 30N, much less under 28N right off the east coast is going to be tropical first, later on it might get sub-tropical. We'll see...let's have the surface low form first.
Do anybody think the winter coming up will be snowy in the south.
Quoting 177. LargoFl:

actually todays rain here in florida is the good kind...the kind that soaks into the ground instead of running off...the aquifer really needs this


You guys just had a good soaking rain the other day, back home at my parents house which is in Pinellas, not far east east of Largo, they got nearly 4 inches of rain with the cold front that moved down the state. Most of the Tampa Bay area saw anywhere from 2-5 inches with some spots getting up in the 6-7 inch range. Some that was torrential runoff rains, but some of it was just steady heavy rain.


September is coming in a lot more beneficial rain wise so far down there than the other summer months.
Quoting 181. jrweatherman:



A solid band of moderate rain has really expanded across central and southern Pinellas and eastward. Going to get a bit more than I expected.


There appears to be a warm developing just south of Tampa Bay by Sarasota, across to the East coast. You can see this by convection moving east to west from Tampa Bay north and convection moving west to east from Sarasota south. Also you can see the overrunning rains starting to increase in this area too along the boundary. This rain will be persistent until this boundary starts to lift north.
Quoting 195. CosmicEvents:


I think any low that forms under 30N, much less under 28N right off the east coast is going to be tropical first, later on it might get sub-tropical. We'll see...let's have the surface low form first.


should be just before sunrise just offshore ne ward from Melbourne

maybe see what this does overnight

Quoting 192. intampa:

loving this kind of rain... badly needed in riverview..... and maybe more to come. im sure the aquifer is loving it also... fill that up before dry season.


Keep in mind though, very heavy rain can sometimes fall in the dry season too, we've had impressive rain events even in the dry season. During El Nino, the Winter and Spring can be like a second rainy season. With signs of El Nino in place, this upcoming winter and Spring could be good for Florida.

I've actually seen occasional years looking at rainfall record in Florida reporting station archives where heavy rains Fall in the dry season and the rainy season is lackluster. Of course, this usually is not the case. But rainfall average includes the average of all events, sometimes the dry season can be rainy, and sometimes the rainy season can be dry. Some years its rainy almost the whole year in Tampa Bay, and some years its wet only a couple months out of the year. Yearly rainfall around Central Florida can vary quite a bit. Some years, the area gets 50, other times only 35, and some years it gets over 70 inches. The average comes out in the 50 range.
Two straight runs of the GFS with no Gulf storm. Guess we need a blog about Winter storm names soon.
202. JRRP
Quoting unknowncomic:
Two straight runs of the GFS with no Gulf storm. Guess we need a blog about Winter storm names soon.

but have cyclone in MDR
Quoting 202. JRRP:


but have cyclone in MDR
Good point. Doomed.
Local winter forecast for the NE. (Not Mine)



Quoting 198. Jedkins01:



There appears to be a warm developing just south of Tampa Bay by Sarasota, across to the East coast. You can see this by convection moving east to west from Tampa Bay north and convection moving west to east from Sarasota south. Also you can see the overrunning rains starting to increase in this area too along the boundary. This rain will be persistent until this boundary starts to lift north.


Its been very interesting to watch the radar today. The change of movements give a pretty good indication of what is happening in the atmosphere. Anyway, great widespread soaking rain for everyone and that's on top of the soaker we got a couple of days ago.
Odile can move along now. SE New Mexico is drowning. The rain in the forecast just keeps being pushed forward and now it looks like it will loop around a little and come back Sunday. Various normally dry washes have gone up 10-15' (and back down), with the Black River near Malaga rising an astounding 30' this morning!
Link
Gov’t Scientists: “Something very unusual occurring” off west coast of US, Canada — “Unprecedented in historical record” — “Will dramatically reduce productivity” in 6,500 sq. miles of ocean — Anomaly extends “across Pacific to Japan” — “Who knows what will happen?”

There is a massive pool of warm water in the Gulf of Alaska, NOAA scientist Nate Mantua said in an email. It is unprecedented in the historical record, he added… the past year is way out of the historical range — “so who knows what will happen?“

NOAA Fisheries, Sept. 2014: Scientists across NOAA Fisheries are watching a persistent expanse of exceptionally warm water spanning the Gulf of Alaska that could send reverberations through the marine food web. The warm expanse appeared about a year ago and the longer it lingers, the greater potential it has to affect ocean life… “Right now it’s super warm all the way across the Pacific to Japan,” said Bill Peterson, an oceanographer with NOAA… “it’s a very interesting time because when you see something like this that’s totally new you have opportunities to learn things you were never expecting.” Not since records began has the region of the North Pacific Ocean been so warm for so long… The situation does not match recognized patterns in ocean conditions such as El Niño Southern Oscillation or Pacific Decadal Oscillation… “It’s a strange and mixed bag out there,” Mantua said… warm temperatures are higher and cover more of the northern Pacific than the PDO typically affects… cold near-shore conditions in the Pacific Northwest also don’t match the typical PDO pattern.

Link
Quoting 207. TRUWXWatcher:

Odile can move along now. SE New Mexico is drowning. The rain in the forecast just keeps being pushed forward and now it looks like it will loop around a little and come back Sunday. Various normally dry washes have gone up 10-15' (and back down), with the Black River near Malaga rising an astounding 30' this morning!
Link


The doppler estimate out of Midland, - Northwest of Pecos, Texas shows 10 to 12 inches over a large area :

Link
Quoting DDR:
Very wet conditions in Trinidad&Tobago,rain and more rain>>>
There is a sort or an UL in the vicinity of Guradalupe, is spinning a bit...
Let me try this again (I have been lurking forever, long before my 2008 join date and only now have a real reason to post something). I do think this is worth seeing:
Quoting Doppler22:
Local winter forecast for the NE. (Not Mine)



Who are the guys that are forecasting this? It's doesn't look like the NWS or WPC.
Quoting 213. TRUWXWatcher:

Let me try this again (I have been lurking forever, long before my 2008 join date and only now have a real reason to post something). I do think this is worth seeing:



The doppler estimate out of Midland, - Northwest of Pecos, Texas shows 10 to 12 inches over a large area :

Link
The jack rabbits here carry canteens.
Quoting TRUWXWatcher:
Let me try this again (I have been lurking forever, long before my 2008 join date and only now have a real reason to post something). I do think this is worth seeing:
Those flash floods in the desert and watching those washes become rivers is really something. Hopefully it will start to slack off soon. The radar is looking like the storms are more scattered now. Pretty strange talking about too much rain in New Mexico when we're dry as a bone in Alabama.
Quoting 214. sar2401:

Who are the guys that are forecasting this? It's doesn't look like the NWS or WPC.

S & S Storm Chasing. Its a local weather group
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SHELTER IN PLACE WARNING
PENNSYLVANIA STATE POLICE MOUNT HOLLY NEW JERSEY
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
806 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
PENNSYLVANIA STATE POLICE.

THE PENNSYLVANIA STATE POLICE ARE ASKING ALL RESIDENTS OF BARRETT
AND PRICE TOWNSHIPS TO SHELTER IN PLACE IMMEDIATELY.

PLEASE DO NOT GO OUTDOORS AND REMAIN AWAY FROM WINDOWS OR OPENINGS
TO THE OUTSIDE.
Quoting 208. ColoradoBob1:

Gov’t Scientists: “Something very unusual occurring” off west coast of US, Canada — “Unprecedented in historical record” — “Will dramatically reduce productivity” in 6,500 sq. miles of ocean — Anomaly extends “across Pacific to Japan” — “Who knows what will happen?”

There is a massive pool of warm water in the Gulf of Alaska, NOAA scientist Nate Mantua said in an email. It is unprecedented in the historical record, he added… the past year is way out of the historical range — “so who knows what will happen?“

NOAA Fisheries, Sept. 2014: Scientists across NOAA Fisheries are watching a persistent expanse of exceptionally warm water spanning the Gulf of Alaska that could send reverberations through the marine food web. The warm expanse appeared about a year ago and the longer it lingers, the greater potential it has to affect ocean life… “Right now it’s super warm all the way across the Pacific to Japan,” said Bill Peterson, an oceanographer with NOAA… “it’s a very interesting time because when you see something like this that’s totally new you have opportunities to learn things you were never expecting.” Not since records began has the region of the North Pacific Ocean been so warm for so long… The situation does not match recognized patterns in ocean conditions such as El Niño Southern Oscillation or Pacific Decadal Oscillation… “It’s a strange and mixed bag out there,” Mantua said… warm temperatures are higher and cover more of the northern Pacific than the PDO typically affects… cold near-shore conditions in the Pacific Northwest also don’t match the typical PDO pattern.

Link


It's been that way for a long time and not going away.

Quoting Jedkins01:


You guys just had a good soaking rain the other day, back home at my parents house which is in Pinellas, not far east east of Largo, they got nearly 4 inches of rain with the cold front that moved down the state. Most of the Tampa Bay area saw anywhere from 2-5 inches with some spots getting up in the 6-7 inch range. Some that was torrential runoff rains, but some of it was just steady heavy rain.


September is coming in a lot more beneficial rain wise so far down there than the other summer months.
You guys are sure hogging all that rain. Except for a few widely scattered storms, nothing at all is making it up to the Panhandle or SE Alabama. It got up to 94 today but the dewpoint never got out of the 60's. It would be nice if we actually got a rainy season...or even a rainy day. :-)
Quoting Doppler22:

S & S Storm Chasing. Its a local weather group
Ah, OK. I guess they can't do any worse than some of our blog long range forecasters.
Quoting Doppler22:
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SHELTER IN PLACE WARNING
PENNSYLVANIA STATE POLICE MOUNT HOLLY NEW JERSEY
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
806 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
PENNSYLVANIA STATE POLICE.

THE PENNSYLVANIA STATE POLICE ARE ASKING ALL RESIDENTS OF BARRETT
AND PRICE TOWNSHIPS TO SHELTER IN PLACE IMMEDIATELY.

PLEASE DO NOT GO OUTDOORS AND REMAIN AWAY FROM WINDOWS OR OPENINGS
TO THE OUTSIDE.
Must be after the guy that shot the troopers.
Quoting 219. Grothar:



It's been that way for a long time and not going away.




The ocean is warmer now than during the record breaking El Nino of 1998, and it's been this way for a few months. Don't worry, none of this exists, it's not really happening, there is nothing to see here, move along.
Quoting 211. ColoradoBob1:



The doppler estimate out of Midland, - Northwest of Pecos, Texas shows 10 to 12 inches over a large area :

Link


Most of that rain fell north of Pecos last night. This is on top of rain last weekend that was anywhere from 4-10" in the same general area SE of Carlsbad (Loving and Malaga). We only average 13"/year! I tried to do a little bird watching south of Whites City this afternoon but was thwarted at a flooded river crossing. There were several people coming across that had been stranded on the other side all night. It was probably less than a foot but I declined to try my luck. Debris shows that the water level had been at least 10' last night and it had washed away a foot bridge that had replaced one washed out last September when the water level reached similar levels (but not 30' downstream)
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
The NAM has been hinting on its runs today that a piece of energy will get left behind in the GOM.
With the amount of convection currently in the GOM, it's not out of the question we could get another low to spin up on the tail end of the front.

18z NAM at 84 hours

You don't really have to look at models. The WPC is already forecasting the low to form -

A wave on the stationary front that is draped from Texas across the Gulf
of Mexico and Florida will form overnight Friday and into Saturday. The
low will begin to move up the East Coast by Saturday afternoon.
Convection will ignite across the state of Florida with the heaviest
concentrations over central Florida on Friday night into Saturday morning.
By Saturday evening, the low will track up towards the coastline of the
Carolinas. Showers and thunderstorms will concentrate mainly along the
coast from Georgia to New England.


It's also already shown on the surface charts -

Saturday, 0600z



Saturday, 1800z



Another view of the Tornado earlier near Lancaster in North-West Minnesota.

This photo was taken by Janet Johnson and it clearly shows the Tornado. The touchdown was relatively brief, but occurred just South of Lancaster in Kittson County, Minnesota.

Photo Credit: Janet Johnson, tweeted by Aaron White (@AaronWhiteWDay)

@iCyclone's air-pressure data from #HurricaneODILE in #CaboSanLucas. Lowest 943.1 mb, during calm eye.
Incredible Rainstorm in Southern France

Torrential rainfall Tuesday through Thursday morning (September 16-18) in the Languedoc Region of southern France has resulted in flooding that has killed at least four people with two others still missing. The rainfall rates during the storm were phenomenal………………………………… …………. Over the course of the entire 36-hour long storm period from Monday evening 8 p.m. to Thursday morning 8 a.m., a total of 468 mm (18.43”) of rainfall accumulated at Saint-Gervais-sur-Mare, the equivalent of 40% of their average annual precipitation amount. Some other totals for this same 36-hour period include:


Link
Quoting Skyepony:
GEOS-5 give FL a day break Sunday on the rain as a low that forms off ECFL moves away. Then takes trough remains & a wave.. it gets wet again for FL & just pushes it into the southeast. By day 4 AL & MS are in it good too. This just goes on through next Sunday..

Thursday


Week from Sunday
I wish the locals felt as optimistic as the NAM. This is what Mobile has to say -

LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...A DRY NORTH UPPER FLOW
WILL PERSIST SUNDAY BEFORE THAT 500 MB RIDGE TO THE WEST OF US MOVES
EAST INTO OUR REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD INTO MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA EARLY MONDAY ON THE HEELS OF
PERTURBATIONS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
AROUND THE BASE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST. WE CAN SEE
THIS WEAK FRONT PUSHING INTO THE COASTAL REGION BY OVERNIGHT MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING BUT IT WILL NOT DO MUCH FOR RAIN SINCE THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL NOT GET MUCH ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND LIFTED
INDEX WILL STAY AROUND -1 TO -2. ONCE IT SWEEPS THE REGION THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL DROP TO 0.75 INCHES AND LIFTED INDEX WILL
CLIMB TO +4 INDICATING A DRY FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN THE
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN. WE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
THEREAFTER...THAT RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE TEXAS HILL
COUNTRY KEEPING A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND FORMING A WEAK LOW
ALOFT OFF THE FLORIDA COASTAL BEND IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY
WEDNESDAY. OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
OFFSHORE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE DIURNAL EVOLUTION OF THE
SEABREEZE ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES REMAINING CLOSE TO SEASONAL. 77/BD
I sure wish this blog was as helpful as I remember it was. NOT.
I've been away from the blog and just wanted to know. For the past 5 days I've been posting about 3 times a day that a low might form off the SE coast and be moved north. Anybody know if anything has happened yet?
Quoting OSHNBLU:
I sure wish this blog was as helpful as I remember it was. NOT.


.. helpful for what?
Quoting 219. Grothar:
It's been that way for a long time and not going away.

Yes and that blob of heat in Laptev Sea is even more worrying , it's over that methane bubble factory off the coast of Siberia.

The melt did result in one notable statistic according to Stroeve, though. In the Laptev Sea off the northern coast of Siberia, open water came within five degrees latitude of the North Pole. This area has always had at least some ice cover since satellite recordkeeping began in 1979, even in some of the most dramatic melt seasons.

Very warm sea surface temperatures that were up to 9°F above normal in the Laptev Sea combined with persistent southerly winds from central Siberia, a very warm spot on the globe this summer, to clear the region of ice.

Link
Quoting Grothar:
I've been away from the blog and just wanted to know. For the past 5 days I've been posting about 3 times a day that a low might form off the SE coast and be moved north. Anybody know if anything has happened yet?


Doesn't look like it'll develop, shear is screeching across the state, but we're getting quite a lot of rain tonight.
Quoting 219. Grothar:



It's been that way for a long time and not going away.




Date | 2014-09-17 20:00 Local ⇄ UTC

Data | Ocean Currents @ Surface + SST Anomaly

Quoting 235. CybrTeddy:



Doesn't look like it'll develop, shear is screeching across the state, but we're getting quite a lot of rain tonight.


We've had a few heavy rains here today and lightning. More like summer.
Quoting 233. CybrTeddy:



.. helpful for what?


The "good ole' Days when weather men licked their finger, and stuck it in the air to see which way the wind was blowing.

Damn Bob Dylan , since him we don't need a weather man to know which way the blows.
Quoting 204. Doppler22:

Local winter forecast for the NE. (Not Mine)






Better have Washi on watch with that forecast. No snow for her...
Quoting Doppler22:
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SHELTER IN PLACE WARNING
PENNSYLVANIA STATE POLICE MOUNT HOLLY NEW JERSEY
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
806 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
PENNSYLVANIA STATE POLICE.

THE PENNSYLVANIA STATE POLICE ARE ASKING ALL RESIDENTS OF BARRETT
AND PRICE TOWNSHIPS TO SHELTER IN PLACE IMMEDIATELY.

PLEASE DO NOT GO OUTDOORS AND REMAIN AWAY FROM WINDOWS OR OPENINGS
TO THE OUTSIDE.


Someone ambushed the PA state barracks in the Poconos and then went into hiding in the woods.
Surface wind data and radar data seems to support that the low is actually developing just SW of Tampa, 850 mb vorticity is also at a maximum here.

Maybe the more dominant low will still develop east of the state, as the models show the greatest divergent flow taking place just off the east coast of Florida. Regardless, at least for now, it appears a low is west of Tampa. Now that the air has stabilized with all the rain and loss of heating, most of the heavy rainfall has weakened. However, lift from the shortwave and low along with deep moisture will support persistent rain across Central Florida into the night. Locally heavy showers embedded in the light to moderate rain are still occurring though, as St. Petersburg and some other areas have picked up some really heavy rainfall.

So far rainfall is widespread 0.50-0.80 with pockets of 1-3 inches. The majority of the rain though has accumulated in the last few hours. Just good steady rain for most places.

Quoting 240. wxgeek723:



Someone ambushed the PA state barracks in the Poconos and then went into hiding in the woods.

Yeah, Thats just to the North of me. I hope they get him
Quoting ColoradoBob1:


The "good ole' Days when weather men licked their finger, and stuck it in the air to see which way the wind was blowing.

Damn Bob Dylan , since him we don't need a weather man to know which way the blows.


Bob Dylan? Who do you think invented that technique? No less than Grothar! :)
I noticed some bloggers in Florida are saying that this steady soaking rain rather than heavy runoff rains is good, and that's true especially in the urban areas. But nature has a good way of collecting heavy rains from runoff naturally, and that is wetlands.

I talked about the issue once before of urbanizing areas in FL and many other areas in the deep south where wetlands are frequent and the majority of rainfall is in the form of heavy tropical downpours rather than this persistent steady light to moderate rain.
The issue with this, is that the wetlands are natures way of storing and collecting the runoff from heavy tropical rainfall rates. But when wetlands and the woods that contain them are replaced by urbanization, the majority of heavy rainfall rate type events just gets redirected into gutters and into the ocean especially in urban areas near the coast like Tampa, Miami, Mobile, and Houston. This is a problem since a lot of this never gets into the aquifer, and sandy soil in subtropical areas down south also loses moisture quickly without wetlands areas because of its ability to handle a lot of rain.

I have seen where even years like last year when much of the Tampa bay area got 40-50 inches of rain in just 4 months, ground water supplies were still below normal because most of the rain gets redirected into the ocean. Also when you consider, us humans have a tendency to waste unless we are forced to do otherwise. Humans wasting lots of water in these regions doesn't help.
Quoting 241. Jedkins01:

Surface wind data and radar data seems to support that the low is actually developing just SW of Tampa, 850 mb vorticity is also at a maximum here.

Maybe the more dominant low will still develop east of the state, as the models show the greatest divergent flow taking place just off the east coast of Florida. Regardless, at least for now, it appears a low is west of Tampa. Now that the air has stabilized with all the rain and loss of heating, most of the heavy rainfall has weakened. However, lift from the shortwave and low along with deep moisture will support persistent rain across Central Florida into the night. Locally heavy showers embedded in the light to moderate rain are still occurring though, as St. Petersburg and some other areas have picked up some really heavy rainfall.

So far rainfall is widespread 0.50-0.80 with pockets of 1-3 inches. The majority of the rain though has accumulated in the last few hours. Just good steady rain for most places.




where are you seeing the low forming? I
Classic..

It's almost hard to believe waves used to be able to make it all the way across the Atlantic without going north.
Quoting 235. CybrTeddy:



Doesn't look like it'll develop, shear is screeching across the state, but we're getting quite a lot of rain tonight.


Low pressure will actually develop and is developing directly related to the shear. I understand why this is throwing people off, as usually extratropical lows don't initiate around Florida this time of year, however it is happening at the moment.

This low will be developing due to baroclinic processes, i.e. those strong upper level winds are associated with a short wave and jet streak, upper divergence of the strong winds ahead of the shortwave over Florida is in the right position for cyclogenesis, albeit weak though. The upper divergence causes convergence at the surface, the temp gradient along the front aids in the development of low pressure through the q-g process.

This is all because of a deep trough in the east an jet energy pieces rotating through the base of the trough.

This is a low is forming from the top down process, not at all by a tropical latent heat one the is bottom to top. This definitely will not be tropical at all.
What's happening in the caribbean? The rain falls in Puerto Rico, Antigua & Barbuda, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Trinidad & Tobaggo, everywhere, but in St Martin, St Barth's and Anguilla: NO RAIN ! We badly need rain ! Heavey Rain, and heavy TS ! That's what we want !
Quoting 245. Hurricanes101:



where are you seeing the low forming? I




elongated surface low pressure is west and southwest of Tampa right now as you can see due to upper divergence across the eastern gulf across Florida from the shortwave.

Models are showing the dominant low to eventually develop overnight into tomorrow off the east coast of Florida and absorb the vorticity around Central Florida.

Upper wind flow vectors should become most divergent there later, so that makes sense. Vorticity for now is strongest just southwest of Tampa. You can see the broad and elongated cyclonic flow on the Tampa radar.

Plenty of moisture and lift may still give another wet day tomorrow across the state. Its tough to stay how this will exactly evolve and progress. We'll see by the morning, but the models are looking wetter for the state tomorrow than they did the last couple days. Nothing extreme, just a good shot of more beneficial rain coverage.

An upper low will also be developing as well, as upper heights lower.
000
FXUS62 KTBW 200126
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
926 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
THIS TROUGH WILL LINGER AROUND THE AREA FOR TONIGHT SO WE ARE
EXPECTING CONTINUED RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE
NOT BEEN HEAVY IN MOST AREAS...JUST STEADY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. THE AREA BETWEEN TAMPA BAY AND HIGHLANDS COUNTY HAVE SEEN THE
MOST RAIN WITH A RANGE OF 1-3 INCHES AS INDICATED BY OBSERVATIONS AND
RADAR ESTIMATES. WITH STEADY TRAINING OF RAIN OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA
THIS EVENING...SOME AREAS COULD RECEIVE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS AND QPF
AMOUNTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL AS INDICATED BY
RADAR. ALL OTHER WEATHER GRIDS LOOK GOOD FOR NOW AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR OVERNIGHT FOR ANY OTHER NEEDED CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
Quoting 220. sar2401:

You guys are sure hogging all that rain. Except for a few widely scattered storms, nothing at all is making it up to the Panhandle or SE Alabama. It got up to 94 today but the dewpoint never got out of the 60's. It would be nice if we actually got a rainy season...or even a rainy day. :-)


We aren't getting it here in the panhandle though so I feel your pain, rainfall coverage and totals look low through 7 days here. I'm just glad too see the rain down south of here as some parts of west central Florida finished in the top 10 driest summers and the wettest areas were still only50-70% of normal.

A few places got in the all time driest. We need the rain and so do you as well. Hopefully El Nino will bring us some winter water.
Quoting 243. CybrTeddy:



Bob Dylan? Who do you think invented that technique? No less than Grothar! :)


I also invented the word twit. :)
Quoting Jedkins01:


Low pressure will actually develop and is developing directly related to the shear. I understand why this is throwing people off, as usually extratropical lows don't initiate around Florida this time of year, however it is happening at the moment.

This low will be developing due to baroclinic processes, i.e. those strong upper level winds are associated with a short wave and jet streak, upper divergence of the strong winds ahead of the shortwave over Florida is in the right position for cyclogenesis, albeit weak though. The upper divergence causes convergence at the surface, the temp gradient along the front aids in the development of low pressure through the q-g process.

This is all because of a deep trough in the east an jet energy pieces rotating through the base of the trough.

This is a low is forming from the top down process, not at all by a tropical latent heat one the is bottom to top. This definitely will not be tropical at all.


Yea, I should have been more specific, nothing tropical will form from this. The phase diagrams are all saying asymmetric cold core system as a low pressure begins to develop. I'm not surprised we're seeing this happen already given how October-ish it's been out there in the Atlantic recently with troughs digging down and such.
Quoting 252. Grothar:



I also invented the word twit. :)


I resemble that remark too...
Quoting Grothar:
I've been away from the blog and just wanted to know. For the past 5 days I've been posting about 3 times a day that a low might form off the SE coast and be moved north. Anybody know if anything has happened yet?
It's forming almost over your head. It should be off the east coast of Florida in about 8 hours and headed NE a couple of hundred miles off the coast. By Monday about this time it is forecast to be off the coast of New England.



Is this the one you've been talking about?
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Yea, I should have been more specific, nothing tropical will form from this. The phase diagrams are all saying asymmetric cold core system as a low pressure begins to develop. I'm not surprised we're seeing this happen already given how October-ish it's been out there in the Atlantic recently with troughs digging down and such.
That's a deep low in Canada and a pretty strong cold front that will be following in the footsteps of the coastal low. Even if it was tropical, it would be pushed OTS by the front and get absorbed in the larger low. This is just not a good setup for anything tropical forming in the GOM or off the SE coast for the next five days.
Quoting 249. Jedkins01:





elongated surface low pressure is west and southwest of Tampa right now as you can see due to upper divergence across the eastern gulf across Florida from the shortwave.

Models are showing the dominant low to eventually develop overnight into tomorrow off the east coast of Florida and absorb the vorticity around Central Florida.

Upper wind flow vectors should become most divergent there later, so that makes sense. Vorticity for now is strongest just southwest of Tampa. You can see the broad and elongated cyclonic flow on the Tampa radar.

Plenty of moisture and lift may still give another wet day tomorrow across the state. Its tough to stay how this will exactly evolve and progress. We'll see by the morning, but the models are looking wetter for the state tomorrow than they did the last couple days. Nothing extreme, just a good shot of more beneficial rain coverage.

An upper low will also be developing as well, as upper heights lower.


I am so glad to read this, we can sure use the rain in areas like mine that have not (until today) had anything significant in 10 days. Here's hoping for at least 1" from now through tomorrow night. Looking at the radar, it's tough to tell which way the storms are moving overall.
Quoting 255. sar2401:

It's forming almost over your head. It should be off the east coast of Florida in about 8 hours and headed NE a couple of hundred miles off the coast. By Monday about this time it is forecast to be off the coast of New England.



Is this the one you've been talking about?


Yes.
Quoting Jedkins01:


We aren't getting it here in the panhandle though so I feel your pain, rainfall coverage and totals look low through 7 days here. I'm just glad too see the rain down south of here as some parts of west central Florida finished in the top 10 driest summers and the wettest areas were still only50-70% of normal.

A few places got in the all time driest. We need the rain and so do you as well. Hopefully El Nino will bring us some winter water.
That's for sure. If there's one thing I hope Scott is right about it's that we get the El Nino by December at the latest. If it holds off until February or March, it will be too late to do the west coast or us much good. Even worse will be if it turns out we just end up with a neutral year. Give what I've seen so far, that's not outside the realm of probability.
Quoting Grothar:


Yes.
There you go then. You were right on top of it.
Quoting Chicklit:
Another one bites the dust
That should be the official theme song of the 2014 Hurricane Season...
Quoting zicoille:
What's happening in the caribbean? The rain falls in Puerto Rico, Antigua & Barbuda, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Trinidad & Tobaggo, everywhere, but in St Martin, St Barth's and Anguilla: NO RAIN ! We badly need rain ! Heavey Rain, and heavy TS ! That's what we want !
Yeah, you guys have been in a dry slot all season. It seems storms have either stayed south and given the southern islands rain or turned north and given the northern islands rain. The storms have been too weak and the steering currents too strong for much to get through to the central islands. Maybe the predicted El Nino will help.
The worst bit appears to be off the eastern coast of central florida at this point.


and sw coast of florida.
night all.
Quoting 265. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

.

rats...I liked Sponge Bob doing Queen...anyway... this downwucaster just became #265 on my ignore list: OSHNBLU congratulations!

will let you know when I reach 300 lol...
Quoting Grothar:


I also invented the word twit. :)


Good Evening WU friends. Weather permitting you can WATCH LIVE TONIGHT: NASA Webcast for SpaceX Launch @ 1 am ET.
Quoting 268. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Good Evening WU friends. Weather permitting you can WATCH LIVE TONIGHT: NASA Webcast for SpaceX Launch @ 1 am ET.


I Will! Will just have time after Fallon!
Quoting 268. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Good Evening WU friends. Weather permitting you can WATCH LIVE TONIGHT: NASA Webcast for SpaceX Launch @ 1 am ET.


Pretty sure it will still be raining
Quoting 252. Grothar:



I also invented the word twit. :)


That's not a word.

:)
Cape Canaveral, FL
10:59 PM EDT on September 19, 2014 (GMT -0400) Pelican Creek | Change Station
Elev 13 ft 28.36 °N, 80.66 °W | Updated -10 sec ago

Rain
Rain
74.7 °F
Feels Like 74 °F
N11
Wind from NE
Gusts 17.0 mph

Quoting 253. CybrTeddy:



Yea, I should have been more specific, nothing tropical will form from this. The phase diagrams are all saying asymmetric cold core system as a low pressure begins to develop. I'm not surprised we're seeing this happen already given how October-ish it's been out there in the Atlantic recently with troughs digging down and such.


Props for using phase diagrams. Don't see those mentioned as much anymore.
Pallis mentioned it last night, and I'm not her biggest fan so I kind of hate to have to agree...But it was interesting to see all of the thatched roofs that seemed to hold up fairly well.
The chance of El Niño is at 60-65% during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter.

Pretty sure this is iCyclone video...

Quoting 267. DonnieBwkGA:




Har Har.
48 hour surface analysis shows developing gale and stationary front draped across central FL.



Surface reflection south of Gulfport, MS.



Low is also there at 700 mb.

Quoting 277. StormJunkie:

Pretty sure this is iCyclone video...




I saw this video the other day, absolutely scary.

This is a great example of why strong buildings can be terrifying and dangerous places to be as well in major hurricanes. Often the structures holds in tact, but strong buildings can still be "gutted out" by strong hurricane force winds. There are great examples of concrete buildings in Charley and Andrew that held together, but some of them were trashed on the inside.

I want to experience hurricane conditions, but I wouldn't ever want to have that happen to me. That's just disturbing.
Quoting 271. StormJunkie:





Thank you, SJ.

Despues de Odile deserves an Oscar. Carries the universal hurricane truth. I have not watched the second vid. Don't want to now.

Watch Despues de Odile full screen.

The Filmmaker, Mike Arce
(sorry about misspelling - accents)
Quoting 280. GTstormChaserCaleb:

48 hour surface analysis shows developing gale and stationary front draped across central FL.



Surface reflection south of Gulfport, MS.



Low is also there at 700 mb.




Yep! I was just talking about its development earlier.

The first round of rains is lightening up over Central Florida, and another is redeveloping SW of Tampa by the low headed northeast, this has some heavier showers embedded as well:



Most of the rain was only light earlier, but there has been some heavier rain as well, with pockets of 2-3 inch totals, and many spots coming over an inch now. Its what the doctor ordered. And keep in mind widespread 2-5 inches fell around the Tampa Bay area just a couple days ago, so these areas are making up for the lack of rain in the normally wet August.
Quoting 275. StormJunkie:

Pallis mentioned it last night, and I'm not her biggest fan so I kind of hate to have to agree...But it was interesting to see all of the thatched roofs that seemed to hold up fairly well.
Her? I am one of the baddest Florida Crackers on the planet. I prove it every time. Special forecast for you. More rain for Florida.
Quoting 277. StormJunkie:

Pretty sure this is iCyclone video...


Piece by piece the building comes apart once the windows get blown in the foundation in the interior becomes weakened. I can see away where someone might equate the timeline of damage being done to a building from a hurricane with that of an earthquake in that the winds act as the shaking effect.
Quoting 272. Astrometeor:



That's not a word.

:)
The word, Twit, was first used in 1548 1528. Gosh, Grothar's older than I thought.
;)
Quoting 267. DonnieBwkGA:






Gro invented Fire and the Wheel...

And later the internet... Al Gore stole that from him.
Quoting 271. StormJunkie:





Did these people have storm insurance?
Quoting 286. Barefootontherocks:

The word, Twit, was first used in 1548 1528. Gosh, Grothar's older than I thought.
;)


Gro was around when the dirt was new.
Quoting 283. Jedkins01:



Yep! I was just talking about its development earlier.

The first round of rains is lightening up over Central Florida, and another is redeveloping SW of Tampa by the low headed northeast, this has some heavier showers embedded as well:



Most of the rain was only light earlier, but there has been some heavier rain as well, with pockets of 2-3 inch totals, and many spots coming over an inch now. Its what the doctor ordered. And keep in mind widespread 2-5 inches fell around the Tampa Bay area just a couple days ago, so these areas are making up for the lack of rain in the normally wet August.
The rain started around 4PM here in Daytona Beach, it had let up around 6-8PM and picked up again around 9PM and we're getting more moderate rainfall now then earlier. The air mass is tropically saturated as I like to call it, even though we have a frontal boundary on top of it. The stratiform precipitation is much welcomed as you said as it gives areas accumulation that have not seen any beneficial rainfall. The heavier rains offshore is most likely to do with the developing low injecting positive shear vorticity.

Tiny area offshore Tampa Bay.

I guess ex95L. It's over I guess.
Quoting 288. unknowncomic:

Did these people have storm insurance?


Doubtful.

Sorry Pallis...Just seems to fit with the snakes, conspiracy theories, etc. And you didn't exactly say you weren't.
Quoting 292. StormJunkie:



Doubtful.

Sorry Pallis...Just seems to fit with the snakes, conspiracy theories, etc. And you didn't exactly say you weren't.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/wv.jpg
Quoting 289. Dakster:



Gro was around when the dirt was new.


Gro was around before there was dirt. XD
Quoting 295. TimTheWxMan:



Gro was around before there was dirt. XD


Gee. I didn't think he was that old... He looks good for his age though, don't you think?
Quoting 296. Dakster:



Gee. I didn't think he was that old... He looks good for his age though, don't you think?


I guess.
Close, but hopefully far enough away to not cause more problems as it looks to strengthen right in that time frame.

My first post was supposed to show the water vapor imagery for 95L. :/
Quoting 290. GTstormChaserCaleb:

The rain started around 4PM here in Daytona Beach, it had let up around 6-8PM and picked up again around 9PM and we're getting more moderate rainfall now then earlier. The air mass is tropically saturated as I like to call it, even though we have a frontal boundary on top of it. The stratiform precipitation is much welcomed as you said as it gives areas accumulation that have not seen any beneficial rainfall. The heavier rains offshore is most likely to do with the developing low injecting positive shear vorticity.

Tiny area offshore Tampa Bay.




You're right, the atmosphere really indeed is saturated, check out the Tampa sounding from earlier this evening, now that is some serious moisture:



You guys are lucky this isn't a strong shortwave with a lot of upper instability, or this could have been a major rain event, rather than a beneficial one.
Good to here you guys are getting in on the action. Back at my parents house in Pinellas my parents had onear 3.5 inches at the gauge a couple days ago there and said they've had over 1.25 tonight so far and over 7.5 for the month of September so far.

The GFS and Euro are coming in pretty wet through extended across most of the state as well which is good news. Its hard to say which days and how much right now, as its pretty complex pattern, but bottom line is there is model agreement that there will be more of this to come into the extended. Obviously not every day, but I don't have to tell you that as I'm sure you sore eyes like me from too much model staring :)
Had a problem with posting the water vapor image but I got it now. :)
Arrrr! Me got it now! Now to find thee treasure. Arrrrrr.
304. SLU
The horse has already bolted.

Well, I guess I'll see you all tomorrow. Most of the storms may be to my north but I'll make a new blog post if the slight risk shifts south.
Global sea level reaching new highs.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
First time I was in Cabo was 1967. There were no resorts. There were only two hotels, and the deluxe hotel had electricity. The other thing was no palm trees. Cabo is a complete desert. The average rainfall is about 10 inches annually. There were no palm trees except for scattered stands of Washingtonia fan palms at a few areas of above ground water. This is a good picture of the San Jose del Cabo area when I was first there. This area is north of Cabo San Lucas and covered with resorts and shopping centers today.



Most of the plant life was cactus, greasewood, and mesquite. The soil was (and is) very poor. You can also see the large arroyo in the center of the picture. One of the reasons the flooding was so bad is that these arroyos were cheap real estate when many of the working people of the area built homes. You can imagine what happens when these arroyos fill with water and debris from flash flooding. Every single palm tree you see in that video was imported, and a lot of the soil that allowed the palms to grow and the golf courses to have grass was also imported. When Odile hit, these palms were heavily damaged or destroyed because they are so shallow rooted. Even though I love the Cabo area, it should never have been allowed to grow the way it has. The hurricane is showing the results of 50 years of bad planning.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
NASA TV coverage of the SPX-4 launch (RapidSCAT) has started.



And in typical Florida fashion, the weather forecast has degraded to 10% of favorable conditions at T-0.
Quoting 310. sar2401:

First time I was in Cabo was 1967. There were no resorts. There were only two hotels, and the deluxe hotel had electricity. The other thing was no palm trees. Cabo is a complete desert. The average rainfall is about 10 inches annually. There were no palm trees except for scattered stands of Washingtonia fan palms at a few areas of above ground water. This is a good picture of the San Jose del Cabo area when I was first there. This area is north of Cabo San Lucas and covered with resorts and shopping centers today.



Most of the plant life was cactus, greasewood, and mesquite. The soil was (and is) very poor. You can also see the large arroyo in the center of the picture. One of the reasons the flooding was so bad is that these arroyos were cheap real estate when many of the working people of the area built homes. You can imagine what happens when these arroyos fill with water and debris from flash flooding. Every single palm tree you see in that video was imported, and a lot of the soil that allowed the palms to grow and the golf courses to have grass was also imported. When Odile hit, these palms were heavily damaged or destroyed because they are so shallow rooted. Even though I love the Cabo area, it should never have been allowed to grow the way it has. The hurricane is showing the results of 50 years of bad planning.


I've seen pictures of the Baja and nearby Mexican states and it doesn't look like a palm-tolerant area precipitation wise. NC being in a subtropical climate has Sabal palmetto's northernmost range at Bald Head Island up to Wrightsville Beach with isolated spots up to Ocracoke and Hatteras with Sabal minors native as far as Currituck County. Desert areas hit by TC's won't have the vegetation to soak up the torrential downpours and the vegetation that is high enough above the ground such as cacti might not withstand the winds Odile had. I'm sure the flooding on the peninsula was astronomical.
Quoting 281. Jedkins01:



I saw this video the other day, absolutely scary.

This is a great example of why strong buildings can be terrifying and dangerous places to be as well in major hurricanes. Often the structures holds in tact, but strong buildings can still be "gutted out" by strong hurricane force winds. There are great examples of concrete buildings in Charley and Andrew that held together, but some of them were trashed on the inside.

I want to experience hurricane conditions, but I wouldn't ever want to have that happen to me. That's just disturbing.


I want to chase hurricanes so much. It's really just a chance you take. The consequences can be pretty bad, so it's more of a personal decision you may or may not want to make.

I've chosen to take that risk, although I doubt I'd ever go after anything higher than a Category 3.
Quoting Jedkins01:


I saw this video the other day, absolutely scary.

This is a great example of why strong buildings can be terrifying and dangerous places to be as well in major hurricanes. Often the structures holds in tact, but strong buildings can still be "gutted out" by strong hurricane force winds. There are great examples of concrete buildings in Charley and Andrew that held together, but some of them were trashed on the inside.

I want to experience hurricane conditions, but I wouldn't ever want to have that happen to me. That's just disturbing.
That video was obviously taken in the lobby of the resort, which was nothing but windows. A hurricane will tear up an area like that pretty rapidly. It's not representative of the damage to the hotels in general. Most of them performed well. Even though windows blew in and rooms were trashed by the wind, shelter areas like stairwells and interior rooms held up well. The goal of engineers designing those structures is not that they will survive undamaged. No one could afford to built a structure that is capable of that. The goal is to make sure the basic structure stays intact, doesn't collapse, and shelters occupants from the storm. Given the fact that there wasn't even one confirmed death in any of the resorts in the Cabo corridor is testimony to the fact the design, engineering, and construction was very sound. When typhoons hit places like the Philippines, the results are much different.
Quoting 298. StormJunkie:

Close, but hopefully far enough away to not cause more problems as it looks to strengthen right in that time frame.




From what I saw this past week the MJO is supposed to be favorable for tropical development in the epac this week, not much so for the Atlantic. If we don't get a named storm by the first of the month we might have to wait until or after the secondary October peak.
Quoting 298. StormJunkie:

Close, but hopefully far enough away to not cause more problems as it looks to strengthen right in that time frame.




If anything, possible Rachel looks to be a rather small system as of now, so there's that.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I want to chase hurricanes so much. It's really just a chance you take. The consequences can be pretty bad, so it's more of a personal decision you may or may not want to make.

I've chosen to take that risk, although I doubt I'd ever go after anything higher than a Category 3.
The main lesson to learn is don't hang out in a lobby full of windows when a hurricane hits. The iCyclone bunch didn't impress me facing a major hurricane in shorts and flip-flops. If you're going to this, have good boots, ballistic nylon gear, goggles, and a helmet. When it gets really bad, find a stairwell and ride it out. As long as you plan in advance, have the right gear, and don't do stupid things, you'll probably survive a direct hit, although I wouldn't be anywhere near a storm worse than Odile.
The long-range GFS and ECMWF 500 mb height fields continue to indicate rather strong ridging will dominate the mid-latitudes of the eastern US/southeastern Canada between 40 and 50N after the next deep trough coming down in a few days, with the axis of the ridging likely centered closer to 45N.

Even if we don't get any storms to utilize this pattern, this is a rather unusual configuration persisting this late into the year. Considering most of the area I just delineated has been victim to 500 mb ridging ever since the middle of August, and the fact that the models are often too hasty in breaking down persistent continental ridge/trough patterns, I am giving a lot of merit to this idea. In fact, the models already seem to be too strong with what's left of the weak mid-level trough off the US east coast.

Interesting stuff, guys.
Quoting 271. StormJunkie:







Damage is not too dissimilar to that caused by Charley. Hell of a storm. Looks more like cat 4 damage. Sad for the locals! I like seeing the local coverage. I've seen enough of the boohoo tourist vids. "Wah! Stuck!" Cool story bro! Feel for the real people who's lives have been changed.
Quoting 317. sar2401:

The main lesson to learn is don't hang out in a lobby full of windows when a hurricane hits. The iCyclone bunch didn't impress me facing a major hurricane in shorts and flip-flops. If you're going to this, have good boots, ballistic nylon gear, goggles, and a helmet. When it gets really bad, find a stairwell and ride it out. As long as you plan in advance, have the right gear, and don't do stupid things, you'll probably survive a direct hit, although I wouldn't be anywhere near a storm worse than Odile.


I'm one of those people who'd just wing it. Be prepared, yes. Know what you're up against. If I live or die, I'm doing it with regards to something I love and am passionate about. Could I do it safer, yes. Do I care, no. I'm an adrenaline junky though. I love extremes. I don't want to die, but I enjoy experiencing those boundaries.
Quoting win1gamegiantsplease:


I've seen pictures of the Baja and nearby Mexican states and it doesn't look like a palm-tolerant area precipitation wise. NC being in a subtropical climate has Sabal palmetto's northernmost range at Bald Head Island up to Wrightsville Beach with isolated spots up to Ocracoke and Hatteras with Sabal minors native as far as Currituck County. Desert areas hit by TC's won't have the vegetation to soak up the torrential downpours and the vegetation that is high enough above the ground such as cacti might not withstand the winds Odile had. I'm sure the flooding on the peninsula was astronomical.
Cabo is a very hostile and unforgiving environment. The only reason Cabo even existed is because the fishing is so good. They created a kind of Disneyland tropical environment for the tourists that was never real. It's going to take a very long time to ever make Cabo look like it did before the hurricane hit. Barrier islands up and down the SE coast have been turned into similar unnatural environments, and they are going to suffer in similar ways when the inevitable major hurricane hits there.
Quoting 321. sar2401:

Cabo is a very hostile and unforgiving environment. The only reason Cabo even existed is because the fishing is so good. They created a kind of Disneyland tropical environment for the tourists that was never real. It's going to take a very long time to ever make Cabo look like it did before the hurricane hit. Barrier islands up and down the SE coast have been turned into similar unnatural environments, and they are going to suffer in similar ways when the inevitable major hurricane hits there.


For a second, I thought you were talking about a hurricane hitting FL.
Quoting GatorWX:


I'm one of those people who'd just wing it. Be prepared, yes. Know what you're up against. If I live or die, I'm doing it with regards to something I love and am passionate about. Could I do it safer, yes. Do I care, no. I'm an adrenaline junky though. I love extremes. I don't want to die, but I enjoy experiencing those boundaries.
OK, how about we agree on no flip-flops then? :-) Really, I don't expect chasers to look like Marines decked out for combat, but there are some common sense things to do that don't interfere with winging it.
Quoting 321. sar2401:

Cabo is a very hostile and unforgiving environment. The only reason Cabo even existed is because the fishing is so good. They created a kind of Disneyland tropical environment for the tourists that was never real. It's going to take a very long time to ever make Cabo look like it did before the hurricane hit. Barrier islands up and down the SE coast have been turned into similar unnatural environments, and they are going to suffer in similar ways when the inevitable major hurricane hits there.


I agree, these places were not meant to build $500K+ properties. It's not a matter of if but when for these places. What keeps these barrier islands intact are A) the vegetation that naturally exists such as Sabal subspecies and other plants and B) the natural erosion/deposition of sand that the winds and current bring, both of which are interfered with construction.
The related fan palm species Washingtonia, Robusta and Filifera (and hybrids), are native to SoCal and the Mexican deserts, and for whatever reason drought resistance and cold tolerance are related, such that Washingtonia are the primary introduced palms in Houston, which can have prolonged dry weather and brutally cold Winters.

Sabal Mexicana, and a hybrid, close relatives of the Carolina palmetto, are the only native palms in Texas. There is a native colony South of Austin/East of San Antonio on the San Marcos river, the rest are found native in Deep South Texas near the Rio Grande.

My Washingtonia have survived 14 Winters, some mild, many brutal, so far with nothing more than frond burns. Some bent/broken fronds after Ike. We have not had a truly horrendous Canadian style death freeze since 1989. I didn't live here in 1989. Most of the introduced palms in Austin seemed to survive, but obviously, unless the climate is warming, and continues to at least maintain, introduced palms in SETX will eventually fall victim to another mega-freeze.

Or, it is hard growing citrus and palms in the mid-latitudes.
Quoting GatorWX:


For a second, I thought you were talking about a hurricane hitting FL.
LOL. At least Florida, or much of it, is a subtropical environment where some species of palms are native and a lot of the lush vegetation, although introduced, at least came from somewhat similar environments. Florida's flora will recover much more quickly from a major hurricane than a place like Cabo, which is rarely hit by major hurricanes. Still, some of the pictures coming out of Cabo won't look much different than the ones coming out of Tampa, Miami, or PCB except they'll have storm surge damage, something that wasn't a major problem in Cabo.
Quoting 324. win1gamegiantsplease:



I agree, these places were not meant to build $500K+ properties. It's not a matter of if but when for these places. What keeps these barrier islands intact are A) the vegetation that naturally exists such as Sabal subspecies and other plants and B) the natural erosion/deposition of sand that the winds and current bring, both of which are interfered with construction.

And they haven't yet had to contend with a serious tsunami, which is also inevitable.
Quoting 323. sar2401:

OK, how about we agree on no flip-flops then? :-) Really, I don't expect chasers to look like Marines decked out for combat, but there are some common sense things to do that don't interfere with winging it.


I might lace up. I like flip flops though, no straps! I'd be more worried about having water, gas, etc. I assume I could be smart enough to survive the initial journey. It's too easy to make observations of others without knowing what they know. Frankly, I don't care. If you're going to put yourself out there, so be it. I'm not easily influenced by others. I'm more of a DIY and figure it out kinda guy. I hope others aren't like me, but it's so fun. I think the most important aspect to grasp here is to be knowledgeable and know what you're up against. Plan regarding structures, direction of winds, intensity, etc. I'll do it, just waiting.
Quoting EdMahmoud:
The related fan palm species Washingtonia, Robusta and Filifera (and hybrids), are native to SoCal and the Mexican deserts, and for whatever reason drought resistance and cold tolerance are related, such that Washingtonia are the primary introduced palms in Houston, which can have prolonged dry weather and brutally cold Winters.

Sabal Mexicana, and a hybrid, close relatives of the Carolina palmetto, are the only native palms in Texas. There is a native colony South of Austin/East of San Antonio on the San Marcos river, the rest are found native in Deep South Texas near the Rio Grande.

My Washingtonia have survived 14 Winters, some mild, many brutal, so far with nothing more than frond burns. Some bent/broken fronds after Ike. We have not had a truly horrendous Canadian style death freeze since 1989. I didn't live here in 1989. Most of the introduced palms in Austin seemed to survive, but obviously, unless the climate is warming, and continues to at least maintain, introduced palms in SETX will eventually fall victim to another mega-freeze.

Or, it is hard growing citrus and palms in the mid-latitudes.
We have all kinds of non-native palms planted here in SE Alabama. Saw Palmetto and Cabbage Palm are native to the immediate coast area around Mobile but we have no native palms this far from the coast. Sago Palms and European Fan Palms are popular along with other more exoitic species. Even banana trees have thrived here because we have been enjoying a long string of relatively warm winters. This past winter did most of them in. Many of the Sago Palms survived, although badly damaged, but all the fan palms, pindo palms, and Queen palms were killed. Some of them had grown to a pretty good size and replacing them isn't cheap. We've had winters here where it didn't get below freezing, but this winter was brutal, with 31 days of lows below freezing during the winter, 4 days where the high wasn't above freezing, and an all-time record low of 10 degrees. On top of that, we had two snowstorms and an ice storm. All the old timers here say it was the worst winter in their memory. I just hope El Nino, if and when it gets here, won't bring winter weather this bad again.
Quoting GatorWX:


I might lace up. I like flip flops though, no straps! I'd be more worried about having water, gas, etc. I assume I could be smart enough to survive the initial journey. It's too easy to make observations of others without knowing what they know. Frankly, I don't care. If you're going to put yourself out there, so be it. I'm not easily influenced by others. I'm more of a DIY and figure it out kinda guy. I hope others aren't like me, but it's so fun. I think the most important aspect to grasp here is to be knowledgeable and know what you're up against. Plan regarding structures, direction of winds, intensity, etc. I'll do it, just waiting.
Well, I spent a good part of my life rescuing people who put themselves in harm's way. As long as you're smart enough not to become part of the problem during or after the storm, more power to you. I suspect your planning and behavior will be different when you get to your second storm though. :-)
Quoting EdMahmoud:
Austin area deputy's body recovered after flood.
Very sad story. There was one time when the same kind of thing almost happened to me. I was trying to get over a low water crossing to respond to people's calls for help. I was just lucky that my patrol vehicle got hung up on a tree that had fallen into the creek before I got swept down. It was a Ford Excursion too, not some dinky little car. I had about 10 seconds from the time I entered the water until I started floating, and I had crossed that creek in exactly the same spot maybe a half-hour before this happened. When the NWS says turn around, don't drown, they aren't kidding. RIP, Deputy Hollis.
East Atlantic is closed-9/20.
Quoting BayFog:

And they haven't yet had to contend with a serious tsunami, which is also inevitable.
You mean on the US east coast and Gulf coast? There's a very low risk of tsunamis there, and the few they've had were not ever one meter in height. If you mean Baja in general then that's a different story. There are many historic runup on the Baja coast. Cabo is lucky to be fairly high so tsunamis present less of a risk there.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
East Atlantic is closed-9/20.
Aw, c'mon, there's still a 20% chance, and this one is just preparing the way for the big one.



BWAHAHAhaha...just kidding. At least Ed made it, but he is likely to be the last one from the east Atlantic this year.
Nice weekend morning hello with some impressions from cosy weather yesterday in Florence (and the whole Tuscany region):



Another video which cannot be embedded here.

Meanwhile those systems moved on towards the east and are just hitting the Balkans once again (see below; orange dots mean very heavy lightning).



Saved loop with the lightning tracks of the storms:

Source for updates.

Image of cloud top temperatures showing this large and violent MCS which has crossed the Adriatic Sea:
Sorry there's no one here, as just sort of wondering what's happening in the Atlantic between Jacksonville and Savannah... some interesting rotation and precipitation there.

Jo
Is it just me or is there some definite circulation off the northeast coast of Florida??
Quoting 337. flibinite:

Sorry there's no one here, as just sort of wondering what's happening in the Atlantic between Jacksonville and Savannah... some interesting rotation and precipitation there.

Jo


Yea, I just noticed that myself.. It looks like a very tight circulation and it's heading right for JAX..
Quoting 311. CybrTeddy:



And in typical Florida fashion, the weather forecast has degraded to 10% of favorable conditions at T-0.


Let's see if the weather cooperates tonight in the second attempt to launch at 1:52 AM EDT.
Disregard this post.I did an error quoting myself instead of doing so to the CT post.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
424 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - RIDGING STRETCHED FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WHILE TROUGHING WAS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH A BROAD
LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. INCLUDING THE EAST GULF AND FL.
SURFACE - ROBUST HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
CANADA RIDGED TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDED FROM TX ACROSS THE GULF TO FL THEN CONTINUED OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC. THERE WERE A COUPLE OF WAVES ON THIS BOUNDARY... ONE
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND THE SECOND JUST EAST OF FL.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - SUNDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEEPENS TODAY...IN THE VICINITY OF THE GA/FL
COASTAL WATERS...WITH THE EASTERN WAVE FORMING A CLOSED LOW OFF THE
NORTHEAST FL COAST. THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...ALONG
WITH IT/S SURFACE REFLECTION...AND DAMPENS OUT INTO THE TROUGH THAT
CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS
ACROSS FL. ON SUN THE PLAINS UPPER RIDGE SLIDES TO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AS A CANADIAN AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE UPPER AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. IN RESPONSE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS AND THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO TRAVERSE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD DOWN
THE STATE.

THE UPPER LOW PROVIDES DEEP AND MOIST...MODEL PWAT VALUES ARE IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...SOUTHWESTERLY AND WESTERLY FLOW WITH PIECES OF
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH. THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TODAY...WITH A WIDE
SWATH OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE UPPER LOW AND IT/S
SURFACE REFLECTION MOVE AWAY TONIGHT SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR...DRIER
IN THE SENSE THAT MODEL PWAT VALUES RANGE FROM 1.8 TO 2 INCHES FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...FILTERS IN WITH CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
THE DEPARTING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUN WILL REDUCE AVAILABLE
ENERGY HOWEVER MOISTURE REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME AND THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS...FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...IN THE FORECAST. THE
RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WARM SOME SUN BUT STILL STAY
BELOW NORMAL.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A RATHER WET START TO THE WEEK
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE
U.S. WITH A STRONG S/W DISTURBANCE DIGGING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST MONDAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE U/L DIFFLUENCE OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WHICH WILL INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH NUMEROUS
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. TUESDAY WITH INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST POPS NEAR THE COAST AS EASTERLY FLOW ENHANCES
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES. AN U/L RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH WILL DECREASE
AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION A BIT...BUT SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EACH DAY.

&&
Hmmm the following monday............................................ ...................
Gee", Huh"
you want to be in cabo today? what a mess. everytime i go abroad im very thankful when i get back. something like this can happen. what govt and a hillbilly airforce.
You can have that one Pat. We don't need it.
Low off the east coast already producing wind gusts to 31 mph. Looks like the OBX can expect a breezy day today! System looks sub-tropical to me.
eyewitness report from surfers http://www.surfline.com/surf-news/hurricane-odile- smashes-baja-friday-damage-report_117981/
official leftover forecast center rain gauge measured 3 1/4 inch of rain last night e cen florida
Low is spinning nicely.
Not the best day for the beach across Southern Florida.
Just outside with shiloh ( my dog) in Wilmington NC. It feels like a noreaster is coming to me. Its too cool for anything tropical. But it sure feels noreasterly.
Thats alright. My emergency kit is ready!
Go ahead Duke Progress Energy AND Time Warner Cable and hit me with your best shot.
Go ahead. YOU WONT WIN THIS TIME
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated in
association with an elongated area of low pressure located a couple
hundred miles east-southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. However,
development of this system is becoming less likely due to
increasingly unfavorable upper-level winds. This low should move
generally northwestward and could bring heavy rainfall to portions
of the Cape Verde Islands later this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
Well folks I told you guys that FL is in for a serious amount of rain the next few weeks and I meant business. Euro is near maxed out at over 10" for western FL the next 10 days.

Quoting 359. StormTrackerScott:

Well folks I told you guys that FL is in for a serious amount of rain the next few weeks and I meant business. Euro is near maxed out at over 10" for western FL the next 10 days.


yeah scott..mother nature is making up for this lackluster rainy season we've had this season huh..everything is soaking wet here by me.
Hmmmm the 00Z ECMWF has it too!
Quoting 346. LargoFl:

Hmmm the following monday............................................ ...................
Quoting 361. SFLWeatherman:

Hmmmm the 00Z ECMWF has it too!

yes we need to stay alert,this time of year always watch the lows in the gulf huh..
Quoting 360. LargoFl:
yeah scott..mother nature is making up for this lackluster rainy season we've had this season huh..everything is soaking wet here by me.


Rained all night here in Orlando. Steady rain received around a inch. 48.33" for the year now by me.
Quoting 354. Sfloridacat5:

Low is spinning nicely.

yeah it makes it up close to the NC outer banks then gets pushed out to sea.
Good Morning all..

well I enjoyed the sunshine for the little time we had it..

Quoting 365. LargoFl:

yeah it makes it up close to the NC outer banks then gets pushed out to sea.


How close does it get to Wilmington NC?
Quoting 367. K8eCane:



How close does it get to Wilmington NC?
so far doesnt seem to touch land but just needs to be watched
found this on a hurricane blog..a Low is supposed to form in the BOC,cross the yucatan and into the lower gulf..we'll see next week or so if it verifies.......................................... .......
Quoting 360. LargoFl:

yeah scott..mother nature is making up for this lackluster rainy season we've had this season huh..everything is soaking wet here by me.
Yes It was quite dry up here in z-hills this summer. good to see some great rain 2.09 inches so far.
Environmentalist Bill McKibben Explains How We Can 'Stave Off Real Disaster'

"We've raised temperature one degree. We're headed for two degrees even if we do everything right. The trouble is, we're not doing everything right, so at the moment we're headed to an increase of four or five degree celsius, eight or nine degrees Fahrenheit this century. If we let this happen, we can't have civilizations like the ones we're used to," he explained. "We just won't be able to grow the grain to support them."

While environmental reform is still a viable option, McKibben feels that the fight for climate change has become "desperate," and that we're "cutting it very very close" when it comes to progress.

"The damage that we've done already really can't be reversed on any human timescale," he said. But If people start relying on sun and wind, "the only things we're not going to run out of," it could prove to have lasting benefits.

"If we stop burning coal and gas and oil, the planet's forests and oceans still retain some ability to cycle carbon out of the atmosphere," he explained. "If we did everything right, by the end of this century, we'd be back down to some place around 350 parts per million CO2."

"A lot of damage would've happened in the meantime, but we probably would've staved off real disaster," he concluded. "That's the real hope."
Quoting 370. severstorm:

Yes It was quite dry up here in z-hills this summer. good to see some great rain 2.09 inches so far.

yes i think everyone is glad the rains came..was a really dry summer for sure.
Quoting 372. LargoFl:

yes i think everyone is glad the rains came..was a really dry summer for sure.
yeah, really weird pattern this year for thunderstorms. only had really good one and I always get great storms in the summer.
Flood Warning

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
739 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...A RIVER FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MANATEE RIVER NEAR MYAKKA HEAD...

.STEADY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS CAUSED THE MANATEE RIVER
NEAR MYAKKA HEAD TO QUICKLY RISE. FLOOD STAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE EXCEEDED
TODAY WITH THE RIVER FORECAST TO CREST TONIGHT BEFORE A GRADUAL DROP
BELOW FLOOD STAGE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

FLC081-210039-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FL.W.0006.140920T1224Z-140922T1200Z/
/MKHF1.1.ER.140920T1224Z.140921T0000Z.140922T0600 Z.NO/
739 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA FL HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR
THE MANATEE RIVER NEAR MYAKKA HEAD...
* FROM THIS MORNING UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.
* AT 06 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS...10.3 FEET
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11 FEET.
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
TO RISE TO NEAR 13.1 FEET BY THIS EVENING.THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW
FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...PRIVATE ROAD AND BRIDGE 1 MILE DOWNSTREAM FLOOD.
AGRICULTURAL, RURAL KIBLER AREA BEGINS TO FLOOD.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 13.1 FEET ON OCT 10
2011.

&&

6Z Nam............................................... .................................................. ...
Quoting wxhatt:
The chance of El Niño is at 60-65% during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter.


Hoping that this is the scenario that pans out...Central New York, dryer warmer than average :)...on a side note.. Shingles suck !
My computer says 9/20



But I don't think that's right..
Quoting 377. RidingTheStormOut:


Hoping that this is the scenario that pans out...Central New York, dryer warmer than average :)...on a side note.. Shingles suck !
Yes they do. had them on the top of my head hurt like well you know what! I'm in florida so I will take moist and cooler.
00z Euro has some parts of coastal SC getting almost 9 inches of rain in the 10 day period while some parts of coastal NC getting 8 inches of rain..average of least 6-7 inches for both coastal states..so if you live in the Carolinas and sick of the rain we have had well I hate to tell ya but the pattern looks to hold as wet..

Later all..
Gloomy day in Fort Myers. Looks like showers coming off the gulf throughout the day. Good day to get some paper work done at the golf course and get ready for all the snowbirds coming down soon.
Based on the 06Z GFS, only the coastal locations will be affected by the low.

Tomorrow should be a pretty bad beach day out on the Outerbanks as the low goes by.

Quoting driftwoodswfl:
Gloomy day in Fort Myers. Looks like showers coming off the gulf throughout the day. Good day to get some paper work done at the golf course and get ready for all the snowbirds coming down soon.


Hey, I'm located in Gateway.
Only picked up around .3" yesterday. Just enough rain to keep the plants happy.

We'll see how today goes.
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
747 am EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Synopsis...
high pressure will ridge into the region from the north today. Low
pressure will move northeast Sunday just off the coast. A cold
front will move through Monday. High pressure behind the front
will pass by to the north Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 730 am Sat...minor update to forecast to capture T/dew point and
precipitation trends this morning.

1030 mb high pressure centered off the New England coast continues to
ridge southwestward into the region while an inverted trough over the
offshore waters is advancing toward the coast and a 1012 mb low
pressure is developing off the East Coast of Florida. Meanwhile a weak
upper low resides over the southeast states with a northern stream
shortwave trough moving into the Great Lakes.

The upper trough will continue to dig into the Midwest and Great
Lakes through the period and will begin to absorb the upper low
over the southeast which in response will lift the surface low north
just off the southeast coast. Expect the coastal trough to move
into eastern sections today then gradually dissipate while the surface
low lifts north to off the SC coast by late in the period.

A few showers showing up on radar across the coastal waters associated
with the coastal trough and expect these to continue to advance
toward the coast through the morning. The best chance of
showers...and possibly an isolated thunderstorm...will occur
across eastern sections today as the showers will tend to
dissipate as they move into a drier airmass ridging in from the
north. In addition...could see some showers associated with the low to
the south lifting toward the region by late afternoon...mainly
affecting the Crystal Coast. Mostly cloudy skies expected eastern
sections with variably cloudy skies to the west. Highs today will
reach a couple degrees either side of 80.

&&

Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 am Sunday/...
as of 230 am Sat...the surface low will continue to lift north along
the coast tonight and models in fairly close agreement with the
low positioned southeast of Cape Lookout by 12z sun. Slightly improving
upper level support with a strengthening jet streak just to the
north coupled with low level convergence near the coastal trough
and surface low will bring a descent chance of showers across eastern
sections tonight. There will likely be a sharp gradient of precipitation
across the region with best chances east of Highway 17 where
forcing will be more favorable and moisture will be greater.
Models not in best agreement with precipitation amounts but could see as
much as 1/2 to 1" along the immediate coast from around Cape
Lookout to Oregon Inlet but then taper off rather quickly west of
a line from Jacksonville to New Bern to Columbia. Lows expected in
the middle 60s well inland to lower 70s along the coast.

&&

Long term /Sunday through Friday/...
as of 232 am Sat...active pattern through the first part of the long
term period. Models agree that cut off upper low over the Florida/Georgia area
will move up the coast as it deepens. Accompanying surface low will
skirt the coast...and is expected to be along the North Carolina
coast Sunday morning. Upper level energy will be centered
offshore...this will help keep high chances of precipitation
confined mainly to coastal sections. Instability limited but cant
completely rule out thunderstorms. Precipitable waters just below 2 inches Sunday
morning...but quickly drops off as system moves away. As system
lifts north of the area during the day Sunday...upper flow will
briefly become zonal ahead of next approaching trough.

This next system will push a front ahead of it through eastern North
Carolina early Monday. Not an awful lot of moisture evident in the
models with this boundary...and upper level energy lags behind
it...so will keep precipitation chances low. High pressure will
quickly build in behind the front Monday night. However models
differ a bit at this time period in the upper level pattern with
European model (ecmwf) digging a deeper upper level trough down the East Coast and
the gfsens being not as deep. This doesnt appear to affect the
surface pattern as models agree on high pressure north of the area
through the remainder of the week. Models do hint at a weak inverted
trough along the coast late in the week. Current grids have low probability of precipitation
and will continue that trend.

&&


Saturday, September 20, 2014

Posted at 8:14 AM

Cloudy today with morning showers
Surface low pressure is taking shape over the Atlantic east of the Space Coast. With unsettled conditions early today along with considerable cloud cover expect light rain showers to persist through the morning. Along with the showers, there will be a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms as the low pressure center east of the area begins to move away from the region. Rain amounts of around a tenth to a quarter of an inch are possible. Somewhat higher rain chances will exist along the east coast and Atlantic waters generally south of Cape Canaveral.


Quoting 335. sar2401:





BWAHAHAhaha...just kidding. At least Ed made it, but he is likely to be the last one from the east Atlantic this year.

Thanks, man. My motto is: Like a jelly donut, my arrival fills you with pleasure and my departure leaves you hungry for more.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Rained all night here in Orlando. Steady rain received around a inch. 48.33" for the year now by me.


At RSW (airport closest to my location) we've only had 33" so far this year. Normal is 47" for this time of year.

I didn't realize how below average my area has been.
I do know that to my southeast down in Collier county (Big Cypress Swamp area) they've had a lot of rain this summer.
NWS in Melbourne, forecast next 8 days. Days and evenings. Starting today-80%-80%-40%-40%-60%-60%-60%-60%
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:


Saturday, September 20, 2014

Posted at 8:14 AM

Cloudy today with morning showers
Surface low pressure is taking shape over the Atlantic east of the Space Coast. With unsettled conditions early today along with considerable cloud cover expect light rain showers to persist through the morning. Along with the showers, there will be a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms as the low pressure center east of the area begins to move away from the region. Rain amounts of around a tenth to a quarter of an inch are possible. Somewhat higher rain chances will exist along the east coast and Atlantic waters generally south of Cape Canaveral.



NWS needs to update that graphic. I shows the low pressure in the wrong location and the arrow has it going in the wrong direction.

The low is now located off the N.E. coast of Florida and it will be moving to the N.E. staying just offshore the southeast.
You DO NEED the moisture, PensicolaDoug. BIG LOL!!!!
Quoting 357. K8eCane:

Just outside with shiloh ( my dog) in Wilmington NC. It feels like a noreaster is coming to me. Its too cool for anything tropical. But it sure feels noreasterly.
Thats alright. My emergency kit is ready!
Go ahead Duke Progress Energy AND Time Warner Cable and hit me with your best shot.
Go ahead. YOU WONT WIN THIS TIME

That not the way good church people talk. Katie Kane.
Here's to hope, huh?

Post #393 - thinking the same thing at the same time. I got the northern sector.

By looking at radar, looks like the rain wants to clear central Florida in a while. Why such high rain chances through out the week here in east central Florida?
Low's not sticking around. It will be just off the Outerbanks tomorrow afternoon.


Quoting hurricanewatcher61:
By looking at radar, looks like the rain wants to clear central Florida in a while. Why such high rain chances through out the week here in east central Florida?


There might be less rain than expected today and tomorrow across central and northern Florida.
But rain chances should remain pretty high because the front/trough is going to remain across Florida going into next week.

We could see another large batch of rain form over the GOM and move into Florida towards the beginning of next week.
Quoting 391. CumberlandPlateau:


That not the way good church people talk. Katie Kane.


You wouldnt want to hear me if that does happen lol
Ones local fo'cast is jus a Zip Code away.

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
350 am EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Discussion...

..high rain chances again today as developing middle-upper low spins
up a surface low east of Florida...

Current...
sharpening middle-upper trough continues to amplify as it drops southeastward
across the northestern Gomex...North Florida and the southeastern U.S. Seaboard. Board
areas of pressure falls ongoing across South Florida and the Bahamas...but
no clear sign of the impending surface low forming just yet. Local 88d
mosaic shows that the widespread light-moderate rain with embedded
heavier showers has waned some with mostly light rain and just a
few moderate showers ongoing now.

Today/tonight...the closed middle-upper low will very slowly drift eastward
across North Florida before turning northeastward this afternoon. The feature will
then open up and eject off to the NE up the Atlantic Seaboard tonight
leaving residual vorticity axis in place across north-ctrl Florida. By late
morning or middle day...a surface low will take shape near or just
offshore the central Florida coast...with surface trough extending back
southwestward across central and SW Florida. The low lifts off to the NE through
this evening into tonight...with weak residual trough extending into
the ctrl or southern County Warning Area. While insolation will be limited to minimal...
given the thick cloud cover in place...some diurnal heating coupled
with continues divgt flow aloft will lead to redevelopment of rain
and a few storms into this afternoon...with activity slowly tapering
of later this evening as the surface and upper features move away.
Nudged probability of precipitation up to categorical (80) for the entire County Warning Area...tapering
back to scattered this evening...and isolated late tonight.

Temperatures will struggle to get past the lower 80s most areas...maybe
some M-u80s in areas where the clouds manage to thin a little early.

Sun...GFS takes the low off the Outer Banks of North Carolina with a
frontal boundary extending southwest into central Florida. The 500mb
trough axis stretched along the southeast coast into North Florida
and the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Best/deeper moisture was from Cape
Canaveral to Tampa Bay and south. The combination of middle level
disturbances moving southwest to northeast ahead of the trough and 2
inches or more of precipitable water keeps rain chances 30 percent
north and 50 percent south. Highs middle 80s north and the upper 80s
south ahead of the trough.

Sun night...with the 500mb trough still over north and central
Florida...high precipitable water values(2 plus inches) and middle
level disturbances/500mb vorticity maxes continuing to move
southwest to northeast over central Florida will keep a mention of
showers with scattered the first half then isolated the second half
of the overnight hours.

Monday...the upper level trough is slow to clear Florida as illustrated
by time height cross sections showing southwest to west flow through
much of the atmosphere. Precipitable water values of 1.75 north to 2
inches southern portion of central Florida and middle level vorticity
maximum tracking overhead should keep rain chances around 60 percent for
the day.

Monday night...high pressure over the Ohio River valley ridges across
the southeast United States and into north early then into central
Florida late Monday night. As the leading edge of the high pressure
moves over north and central Florida the wind finally shifts around
to the northeast and east early Tuesday.

Tuesday...no appreciable drop in layer moisture with precipitable water
values around 2 inches coupled with vorticity maximum crossing overhead
central Florida rain chances still around 60 to 70 percent for Tuesday.

Wed-Fri...the upper level trough finally clears central Florida and
is replaced by ridging aloft moving slowly across the eastern third
of the United States. Rain chances drop to 30 to 50 percent as a
stable moist marine air mass moves into central Florida and the middle
level vorticity support decreases appreciably.

&&

Aviation...mainly VFR in light rain and multi-layered cloudiness
through early-middle morning with some embedded MVFR visibilities and ceilings...
mainly in showers. Better chance for convective rain showers/ts from about
17z-18z Onward.

&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
704 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF FLORIDA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...PASSING JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS. THIS LOW PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN JUST FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE SUCH THAT IMPACTS WILL BE
LIMITED...BUT SHOWERS AND SOME INCREASED WIND IS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA MONDAY...WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING BEHIND IT THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
its a cold low not warm low
GFS taking a page from the CMC two weeks out

Good morning guys
I've just been reviewing some models. I'm finding some interesting thing for medium and long range activity, with the GEM/CMC and the GFS. This is for end of Sept and early Oct. More so with the long range GFS. It's been showing this system for about one or two days now and it is moving up the time line. But I'm slightly more interested with the track. Yeah I know it ain't the best idea to be looking at tracks for long future systems but just hear me out, I have not seen track like this since like 2007 and 2004.















Ok now compare to these





Now I'm comparing tracks not intensity ok

Now on to GEM/CMC ok it's been showing GFS solution with a W Carib system that moves N into the GOM the only thing about it is GFS currently does not show this in current run and the only other diffrence is the CMC is weaker and broad while the older GFS solution was stronger and tight













Hurricane Charley formed down in that area.

havent been on much but what happened to the early start to winter forecasts? All the blue that was forecasted in the GFS maps that were constantly posted?...the constant snow talk??..Im guessing it didn't pan out?..CPC isn't showing much either..







well alot of models are hinting at a GOM storm in a week or two...its that time of year huh when we get the gulf storms.
Quoting 383. Sfloridacat5:


Hey, I'm located in Gateway.
Only picked up around .3" yesterday. Just enough rain to keep the plants happy.

We'll see how today goes.


I live in Gateway too! Yea not too much rain, not much today either so far.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Good morning guys
I've just been reviewing some models. I'm finding some interesting thing for medium and long range activity, with the GEM/CMC and the GFS. This is for end of Sept and early Oct. More so with the long range GFS. It's been showing this system for about one or two days now and it is moving up the time line. But I'm slightly more interested with the track. Yeah I know it ain't the best idea to be looking at tracks for long future systems but just hear me out, I have not seen track like this since like 2007 and 2004.















Ok now compare to these





Now I'm comparing tracks not intensity ok

Now on to GEM/CMC ok it's been showing GFS solution with a W Carib system that moves N into the GOM the only thing about it is GFS currently does not show this in current run and the only other diffrence is the CMC is weaker and broad while the older GFS solution was stronger and tight















Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Hurricane Charley formed down in that area.



Yeah, just looking back further into the Atlantic that system can back tracked across the Atlantic and it coming off W coast of Africa around 78hrs as a tropical wave with a weak low that while it treks across the Atlantic it losses the low a few times (still keeps vort) but redevelops and doesn't really get going till it reaches the E to Central Caribbean and then really takes off when it's SE of Jamaica

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
943 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014


.UPDATE...UPPER TROUGH AXIS NOW JUST WEST OF THE AREA INTO THE
EASTERN GULF WITH DEEP MOISTURE ALONG THE EAST COAST INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. WEAK SURFACE LOW OFF THE EAST CENTRAL FL COAST WILL
MOVE TO THE NE TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER
COASTAL COUNTIES TODAY WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING. SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE NE WHICH WILL BACK THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTH
WEAKENING THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST.

&&
Quoting driftwoodswfl:


I live in Gateway too! Yea not too much rain, not much today either so far.


That's cool that you also live in Gateway.

Looks like we'll pick up some rain in just a little bit. Rain is forming in the Cape that should drop down across our area.

Quoting ncstorm:
havent been on much but what happened to the early start to winter forecasts? All the blue that was forecasted in the GFS maps that were constantly posted?...the constant snow talk??..Im guessing it didn't pan out?..CPC isn't showing much either..









I've been questioning that
Don't really care but what I do care is that when we get into the middle of winter the S is cold and wet because that eventually brings the cooler weather here
Storms building off S.W. Florida.
Quoting Tazmanian:
post 410 did you have to re quote that? you took up hafe the blog pages has it was a vary long post

Yes! Yes I had to do it

BlogPolice LOL ;)
havent been on much but what happened to the early start to winter forecasts? All the blue that was forecasted in the GFS maps that were constantly posted?...the constant snow talk??..Im guessing it didn't pan out?..CPC isn't showing much either..


nor did the 20 inches of rain pan out...just have to consider the source....nuff said
Now any other time that person is ranting and raving about those big bad "red maps" being posted because of those "GW alarmist" that you despise all so much is proving their point.Now because they don't want snow or winter to be discussed you're all over it like white on rice.lol.This is funny.Oh the hypocrisy haha.

Well I'm off to go tend to the garden.

BTW last October was warm but it din't stop our winter from being winter .
The snow will come just like your hurricane will come.
Now any other time that person is ranting and raving about those big bad "red maps" being posted because of those "GW alarmist" that you despise all so much is proving their point.Now because they don't want snow or winter to be discussed you're all over it like white on rice.lol.This is funny.Oh the hypocrisy haha.
here



you don't sound like yourself when you're hungry
Quoting 424. ricderr:

Now any other time that person is ranting and raving about those big bad "red maps" being posted because of those "GW alarmist" that you despise all so much is proving their point.Now because they don't want snow or winter to be discussed you're all over it like white on rice.lol.This is funny.Oh the hypocrisy haha.
here



you don't sound like yourself when you're hungry
You can take that back.I don't except candy from strangers.
Yeah, CV season may be over, but that doesn't mean someone isn't going to get walloped this year. I anticipate we'll have some action near the CONUS in October. We are not out of the woods.

We're lucky we saw Cristobal and Edouard this season. Given the overall conditions in the MDR, it's pretty amazing they even existed. Even more amazing when you realize how close Cristobal came to being a major hurricane with impacts to the CONUS. We'll see what the "homegrown" storms do now since not much happened in the MDR this season to begin with.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1015 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
WET CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. LIGHT
SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF AND THE LAKE REGION THIS
MORNING. PWATS ON THE 12Z SOUNDING WERE JUST ABOVE 2 INCHES. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TODAY...WITH DEEP TRAILING MOISTURE
REMAINING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. LIFT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE LAKE REGION THROUGH THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES
AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW LOCATED ACROSS THE
GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER. THE MAJOR LIMITING FACTOR THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LAKE REGION.
HOWEVER...WITH THE SYNOPTIC FEATURE ENHANCING LIFT...EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE NAPLES AREA AND
LAKE REGION. THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES THIS MORNING SHOW BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION...AND THE
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE HRRR AND
LOCAL WRF MODELS ARE HINTING AT THIS POSSIBILITY. SO KEPT THE
LIKELY POPS IN FOR THE REST OF THE REGION AS WELL. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL.
Good morning boys and girls.

Quoting 389. Sfloridacat5:



NWS needs to update that graphic. I shows the low pressure in the wrong location and the arrow has it going in the wrong direction.

The low is now located off the N.E. coast of Florida and it will be moving to the N.E. staying just offshore the southeast.


What that depicts is the surface low, but extra-tropical cyclones usually aren't vertically stacked. The more obvious rotation further north of Jacksonville is the upper low circulation that's developing.
Slightly overcast, 74 degrees, ne to easterly breeze. Not a towel and beach kind of day but a great day for a walk and some coffee. Deal.
Quoting 406. ncstorm:

havent been on much but what happened to the early start to winter forecasts? All the blue that was forecasted in the GFS maps that were constantly posted?...the constant snow talk??..Im guessing it didn't pan out?..CPC isn't showing much either..










It isn't winter yet. Although they were overhyped, we did have seasonably early cool outbreaks and frost across the northern states. Some records were set in New England and upper New York State on thursday or Friday morning. It wasn't early enough to cause crop damage. This is.. yeah early, but not remarkably so.

For a cold early fall that turned into a warm winter look at 1974-75. Freezes that year Sept 22-23 across the Ohio Valley and upper midwest (and in the DC suburbs 9/24) DID do damage and were concerning. I got nailed in my INNER metro DC suburban location Oct 4. The following winter was mild. The pattern turned to warm in mid October.

For a cold fall that turned into a bitter winter look to 1976-77 which BTW this year reminds me of.

North Pacific warmth this fall is close to if not unprecedented in our admittedly short period of record. Response of the atmosphere to this warmth remains an interesting unknown to watch closely.
434. vis0
As to the thing off the SE US of A, Comment 1 (only 1 :-P) on http://www.wunderground.com/blog/vis0/comment.html ?entrynum=248#comment_0

(since this summer 2014 i post updates/further explanations to my blogs on my cmmnts)
Gro, still intrigued by the blob roughly at 50W?

Quoting 433. Grothar:


Quoting Jedkins01:


What that depicts is the surface low, but extra-tropical cyclones usually aren't vertically stacked. The more obvious rotation further north of Jacksonville is the upper low circulation that's developing.


The graphic also shows the arrow going to the east straight out to sea. That is definitely wrong.
Anyways the low is going to be off the North Carolina coast by tomorrow so it definitely not sitting around central Florida for long (if it's still located over central Fl).
Quoting 334. sar2401:

You mean on the US east coast and Gulf coast? There's a very low risk of tsunamis there, and the few they've had were not ever one meter in height. If you mean Baja in general then that's a different story. There are many historic runup on the Baja coast. Cabo is lucky to be fairly high so tsunamis present less of a risk there.


The East Coast is at risk from very (millenium return period) rare events and we can't use the shorter historical record as a guide. Mid Atlantic ridge activity worries me but I'm not a geologist. The East and Gulf coast have a lot of barrier islands that are heavily developed.. not good.
Good surf (improving from S to N as the day wears on) for the SE coast; OBX and points south on Sunday. OBX and points north Monday. NJ probably going off Monday morning.

Quoting 429. Grothar:


0Z Euro ensemble control member has backed off the Pensacola hurricane in 2 weeks, although the Euro ensembles still show generally low pressure in the BoC.

AS always, very long range Canadian and GFS tends not to verify while. For that matter, since the longer range EPS control isn't stable, not counting on anything.

Have to think (no reason, except October) there will be a Fay, in the Caribbean, and a possible threat to the Eastern Gulf eventually, but nothing really pointing to that now.

NCEP MJO is forecast favorable, but it has been forecast to be favorable most of the season, and wrong. Euro is weaker, and kind of neutral.

Houston drying out just in time for the weekend, dewpoints dropping below 70ºF not far NW of Houston, and temps upper 80s to low 90s, or early Autumn 'Chamber of Commerce' weather. We did need the rain.

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting Skyepony:


There's that graph I love. I want them to turn the arrow to the N.E. I thought the low was headed for the Outerbanks?
That might not be an option?
Quoting 359. StormTrackerScott:

Well folks I told you guys that FL is in for a serious amount of rain the next few weeks and I meant business. Euro is near maxed out at over 10" for western FL the next 10 days.




Back home the rain gauge at my parents house got 3.52 on Wednesday and they got 1.61 yesterday and 0.23 early this morning, putting them in at 7.8 for September. And they haven't had the heaviest rains in the Tampa Bay area by any means. Some areas had 4-6 inches on Wednesday and got 2-4 last night, and parts of the Tampa Bay area are coming in at 10+ for September so far.

It doesn't look like that much fell, but rain gauges on the Tampa Bay radar storm total estimate in the 0.50 inch range are reporting 1.00 to 1.50 inches, and areas in the 1-2 inch range on the radar are reporting anywhere from 2.00 to over 3.00 inches. So estimates are quite a bit less than the real totals.

The main reason why is that the PW's were 2.3-2.5 inches, and while most of the rain was non-convective, i.e. startiform light to moderate rain, there were embedded thunderstorms and shallow showery convection that had much heavier rainfall than the radar estimated to have. This is pretty common, but dual-pole non-biased rainfall products at the NWS are much more accurate than traditional rainfall estimates with these situations.

The models are coming in quite wet during this upcoming week, and have actually been trending wetter. It looks like a somewhat break in the rain the rest of today into tomorrow, although wraparound moisture from the low will still bring scattered showers rains possible.

Early next week is when it really starts cranking, models are in agreement on more solid soaking rain with the potential. Its exactly what the doctor ordered.
Quoting 404. wunderkidcayman:

Good morning guys
I've just been reviewing some models. I'm finding some interesting thing for medium and long range activity, with the GEM/CMC and the GFS. This is for end of Sept and early Oct. More so with the long range GFS. It's been showing this system for about one or two days now and it is moving up the time line. But I'm slightly more interested with the track. Yeah I know it ain't the best idea to be looking at tracks for long future systems but just hear me out, I have not seen track like this since like 2007 and 2004.




So why do you like this one? ;)

Quoting 425. washingtonian115:

You can take that back.I don't except candy from strangers.


Don't you give candy to strangers though?
Quoting sar2401:
First time I was in Cabo was 1967. There were no resorts. There were only two hotels, and the deluxe hotel had electricity. The other thing was no palm trees. Cabo is a complete desert. The average rainfall is about 10 inches annually. There were no palm trees except for scattered stands of Washingtonia fan palms at a few areas of above ground water. This is a good picture of the San Jose del Cabo area when I was first there. This area is north of Cabo San Lucas and covered with resorts and shopping centers today.



Most of the plant life was cactus, greasewood, and mesquite. The soil was (and is) very poor. You can also see the large arroyo in the center of the picture. One of the reasons the flooding was so bad is that these arroyos were cheap real estate when many of the working people of the area built homes. You can imagine what happens when these arroyos fill with water and debris from flash flooding. Every single palm tree you see in that video was imported, and a lot of the soil that allowed the palms to grow and the golf courses to have grass was also imported. When Odile hit, these palms were heavily damaged or destroyed because they are so shallow rooted. Even though I love the Cabo area, it should never have been allowed to grow the way it has. The hurricane is showing the results of 50 years of bad planning.
Yeap,the same all story,of New Orleans, Miami, New Jersey and New York, with Sandy, ...etc. After the tragedy, comes the "whose to blame" regrets, sorrows,guilty feelings, etc. etc...,
Quoting HuracanTaino:
Yeap,the same all story,of New Orleans, Miami, New Jersey and New York, with Sandy, ...etc. After the tragedy, comes the "who's to blame" regrets, sorrows,guilty feelings, etc. etc...,
452. vis0

Quoting 138. weathermanwannabe:



Here are your other closet ark locations.........................................


With almost exactly forty days and forty nights left in South Florida’s rainy season, now might be a good moment to consider the options.

Globally, four Noah’s Arks have been either completed or started in the last few years.

As of last March, one-tenth of a life-sized ark -- 150-feet worth -- sat just outside Hialeah, part of the $1.5 million Hidden Ark project. (An update on that later.)

Lu’s ark in China, a relatively small boat, was reportedly built to survive the December 21, 2012 apocalypse predicted by the Mayan calendar.

Ark Encounter, a project of the Creation Museum in Petersburg, Kentucky, has already raised more than $13 million of their $24.5 million goal. (The full-size ark alone will cost an estimated $21 million.)


Quoting 138. weathermanwannabe:



Here are your other closet ark locations.........................................


With almost exactly forty days and forty nights left in South Florida’s rainy season, now might be a good moment to consider the options.

Globally, four Noah’s Arks have been either completed or started in the last few years.

As of last March, one-tenth of a life-sized ark -- 150-feet worth -- sat just outside Hialeah, part of the $1.5 million Hidden Ark project. (An update on that later.)

Lu’s ark in China, a relatively small boat, was reportedly built to survive the December 21, 2012 apocalypse predicted by the Mayan calendar.

Ark Encounter, a project of the Creation Museum in Petersburg, Kentucky, has already raised more than $13 million of their $24.5 million goal. (The full-size ark alone will cost an estimated $21 million.)


Here some real nutty stuff as to the "ARC": (might be a repeat)

The "Arc/Ark" is in the complex animal's (Human's) Brain.
As one slices the brain (cat-scans) at one point it appears as if wings are unfolding. If one could measure or see the energy that joins these "wings/angelwings" one would draw ARCs, yet its given in parable as Ark so the story stays alive till science catches up to its factual meaning. (The individual "light energies" i call "lightgates" circa 1973 but lost that name to an IBM  patent ~2001, Microsoft took w/o asking 2 of my eMail accounts with the words lightgates and gave it to IBM)

Now as one comes up with ANY "virgin" / new ideas and IN ONES MIND questions the ideas these lightgates create ARCs.
In the Noah story each pairing of animal is symbolic of male ideas & female ideas.
Male ideas are more grounded without and/or physically framed & female ideas are more grounded within and/or mentally framed (compartmentalization) NONE IS BETTER THAN THE OTHER, BOTH ARE NEEDED to think through ideas and some men have woman's brain & vice versa.

Who would build a solid Ark then add a BIG window on the CEILING of Noah's Ark (when one you cut out an area in wood for a hole even if one adds a cover the ability to prevent leaks is compromised & NO GLASS THEN ahh means no moon roof for ya youngsters :-p) but if you read the parable the ark has a window/opening where birds are let out.

The birds are symbolic of ones ideas rising from the many (flood) of ideas as in; let your ideas rise/come out (the hole in the ark's top meaning your highest thoughts come out) test the ideas  if the ideas bring you nothing/void/no olive branch as to knowledge TRY TRY AGAIN. Finally a dove (symbolic of all included as in RGB 255, 255, 255) means your ability to think things over, has bought you knowledge.

When i worked in a major NYC hospital early 1980s -2001 i'd go to the hospitals mezzanine and ask the record keepers for any unused cat scans of the brains though they said i could take them as the patients names/numbers all removed i never took them but spent 3-5 AFTER (housekeeping/maintenance "them" hard labour jobs) measuring energy outputs and found that the Ark's measurements match EXACTLY to the brains Arcs but when one tries to build a wooden Ark and notices that measured numbers are off, then numbers are substituted/changed or said that we know not the exact translation of the measurements to fit the final product instead of staying with the numbers given in ancient scriptures well honestly then one is changing the numbers to fit what they want, but then again i'm nuts...i wish i had the respect to explain in full of where the land of milk & honey is ...read what the tissue as to the brain and what it sits in is described as sweet as honey & looks ~milky (clue: name is similar to Amygdala, the almond shaped area ~Brain), don't ask how they know,(i've posted it in 3 languages elsewhere in the hope to further science w/o ruffling feathers)

Oh , the weather related part read my OWN comment on my blog as to something around Fla. If you don't believe i create a weather influencing device so what just read what i say happens to the LOW off shore, Gotta go tighten some loose screws in my head, peace