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Earth Has its Warmest Summer and August on Record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 6:33 PM GMT on September 18, 2014

August 2014 and the June - August Northern Hemisphere summer period of 2014 were Earth's warmest since records began in 1880, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) today. NASA also rated August 2014 as the warmest August on record. August is the third time NOAA has ranked a 2014 month as the warmest on record; May and June 2014 were the warmest May and June on record (April 2014 was originally ranked as tied for warmest April on record, but has since been revised downwards to the second warmest April on record.) Global ocean temperatures during August 2014 were the warmest on record, and the 0.65°C (1.17°F) ocean temperature anomaly was the highest ever measured, beating the record set just two months previously in June 2014. Global land temperatures in August 2014 were the 2nd warmest on record. The first eight months of 2014 (January–August) were the third warmest such period on record for the globe, with an average temperature 0.68°C (1.22°F) above 20th century average. If 2014 maintains this temperature departure from average for the remainder of the year, it will be the warmest year on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures in August 2014 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 14th or 8th warmest in the 36-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively. Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt details the notable global extreme weather events of August 2014 in his latest post.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for August 2014, the warmest August for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Record-warm conditions were experienced over portions of six continents, and a small area of record cold was observed over Northern Russia. Overall, 26 countries across every continent except Antarctica had at least one station reporting a record high temperature for August. The United States and the Russian Federation each had stations that reported record warm temperatures as well as at least one station with a record cold temperature for the month. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .



One billion-dollar weather disaster in August 2014
One billion-dollar weather-related disaster hit the Earth during August 2014--a flood disaster in the U.S. that swamped Detroit, Baltimore, and Long Island, according to the August 2014 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield. They also classified two new billion-dollar disasters from previous severe weather outbreaks in April and June in the U.S., bringing the global number of billion-dollar weather disasters for the first eight months of 2014 to seventeen. This is well behind the record-setting pace of 2013, which had 28 billion-dollar weather disasters by the end of August, and ended up with a record 41 by the end of the year.


Disaster 1. Flooding near Islip, New York, on August 13, 2014. Islip set an all-time New York state record for 24-hour precipitation with 13.57". Image credit: wunderphotographer Hurricane765.

An El Niño Watch continues
August 2014 featured neutral El Niño conditions in the equatorial Eastern Pacific, and sea surface temperatures were about 0.4°C above average in August in the so-called Niño 3.4 region (5°S - 5°N, 120°W - 170°W), where SSTs must be at least 0.5°C above average for five consecutive months for an El Niño event to be declared. NOAA is continuing its El Niño Watch, but in early August dropped their odds of a fall or winter El Niño from 80% to 60 - 65%.

Arctic sea ice falls to 7th lowest August extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during August was the 7th lowest in the 36-year satellite record and was similar to August 2013 levels, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). As of September 17, the end of this year’s Arctic sea ice melt season was imminent and the minimum extent will be slightly lower than last year’s, making it the sixth lowest extent in the satellite record. The Northern Sea Route (also known as the Northeast Passage)--the shipping lane along the north coast of Russia in Arctic waters--has been open for over a month, according to ice edge analyses by the National Snow and Ice Data Center and the University of Illinois Cryosphere Today. The Northwest Passage through the Arctic waters of Canada did not open, and will stay closed in 2014. Mariners have been attempting to sail these passages since 1497. The Northeast Passage opened to ice-free navigation for the first time in recorded history in 2005, with the Northwest Passage following suit during the summer of 2007. Both passages have been open multiple summers since then, as long-term melting of the ice has continued. However, this summer's weather in the Arctic has featured winds favorable for not letting sea ice drift out through Fram Strait, and we have seen the total volume of sea sea as estimated by the University of Washington PIOMAS model pull back from the record low set in 2012. Some of the 2nd-year ice that survived the summer of 2013 has also survived the summer of 2014, so the ice pack is armoring itself a bit going into 2015 with a modest amount of multi-year ice compared to what we went into 2012 with (2012 set the record for lowest Arctic sea ice extent.)

Most spectacular weather videos of August

Video 1. A Russian man pulls out of his garage just as a tornado arrives. He tries to go back in the garage, but it is destroyed before he can. Note: The dash cam date is incorrect; the tornado occurred on August 29, 2014 in Bashkiria, Russia. According to http://www.extremestorms.com.au/tornado-bashkiria-russia/, the tornado was an EF-3 that killed two people and injured 80.


Video 2. This videographer got way too close to a landspout-type tornado which occurred under a non-supercell thunderstorm on August 31, 2014. The tornado had a diameter of about 100 feet, and the photographer was less than 50 feet from the storm. Seriously, take shelter, dude! According to Michael Thuesner of climahaus.com, the video was taken in Butjadingen, Germany, looking NW/N across a small artificial lake. Here is a second video taken from a safe distance.


Video 3. This videographer was also too close to an August 6, 2014 tornado i‪n San Cristóbal de Las Casas, Chiapas, México‬.

Win $100 in this month's wunderground "Climate Lottery"
Every three months, the Weather Channel's Guy Walton runs a "Climate Lottery" in his wunderground blog where players guess U.S. temperatures for the coming three months. This summer's winner earned a cool $100. The lottery for this fall is now open; to participate, simply go to Guy's blog and pick three numbers between 1 and 120 (with 1 representing the coldest possible ranking and 120 being the highest possible ranking) for September, October, and November 2014 U.S. temperatures, plus a tie-breaker “Power Ball” or overall ranking number for fall 2014. Post your prediction in the comments section of the blog. Picks must be made by midnight EDT October 5th. The National Climatic Data Center’s ranking numbers for fall 2014 will be posted on or shortly after December 15th, 2014.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 468. Jedkins01:



The rain for Florida isn't from Odile, its large scale lift from a decent short embedded in through across the Southeast.


Actually it is the mid and upper moisture from Odile got adsorbed into this deep trough across the east. The actual center is still over Texas but a lot of it moisture got sheared off to the east with the jet stream.

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
957 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...VALID 15Z FRI SEP 19 2014 - 12Z SAT SEP 20 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
50 SW F05 20 ENE ABI PWG 15 ENE UTS 15 NNW BPT 15 SSE KVBS
30 E KRP 10 WSW MMNL 15 WNW MMPG 20 SE 6R6 70 SSE E38 40 SSW MRF
65 SE MMCS 15 E LRU TCS 55 S ABQ 20 NNW CQC 20 NW TCC 30 WNW AMA
35 SSE PPA 20 ESE CDS 50 SW F05.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 S MRF GDP 30 NW ROW 45 ENE 4CR 40 SSW TCC 35 NE CVN PVW
30 N SWW 45 ENE SJT 35 NNW JCT 35 W E29 20 NNW 6R6 50 SE E38
25 S MRF.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 NE EFD 15 NE EFD EFD GLS 20 S LBX PSX 15 SW 3T5 15 NW AUS
30 N 62H 25 W CXO 40 NE EFD.


SOUTHEAST NM AND PORTIONS OF TEXAS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE -- WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES (PWS) OF 1.50-1.75" -- ALONG WITH ANOTHER ANOMALOUS
PW AXIS SETTING SAIL WELL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF T.S. POLO
INTO WESTERN TX, WILL CONTINUE TO OVERWASH A STALLED W-E
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TX THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF
ODILE'S SLOW-MOVING CENTER OF CIRCULATION, THOUGH IT SHOULD WEAKEN
DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE MCV/OLD 700 HPA CENTER OF ODILE
SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN TX BY THIS EVENING SHOULD CLEAR NM
OF ADDITIONAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL TONIGHT. WEAK
ANTECEDENT UPPER-LEVEL FORCING WITHIN THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL
GET A BOOST AHEAD OF THE ODILE-RELATED CIRCULATION AND WITH
INCREASED UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. WHILE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TODAY, SATURATED SOILS BEDEVIL THE REGION AND
CANNOT STAND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM ANY SORT OF
THUNDERSTORM, REGARDLESS OF ITS CONVECTIVE MODE. THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH FORM WITHIN THE REGION COULD ORGANIZE AS 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
IS NEAR 25 KTS. MAINTAINED THE MODERATE RISK ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM
AND WESTERN TX TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
AND POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WITHIN THE AREA TODAY. PER
THE MOST RECENT MESOSCALE QPF GUIDANCE... LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 6-9
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE AS THE OVERALL MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT (WARM
RAIN PROCESSES) WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2.5
INCHES PER HOUR.

ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TX, A SEA OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
MOISTURE, IN THE 2-2.5" RANGE, NEAR TO ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE
FOR MID-SEPTEMBER, LIES CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER AN
INCREASINGLY SATURATED AREA. ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TX, CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE CONSIDERING 25 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
ADVERTISED BY RECENT RAP GUIDANCE. INSTABILITY CAUSED BY DAYTIME
HEATING IN LEAGUE WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE SUPPLY SHOULD
GUARANTEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ACTIVITY IN SOUTHEAST TX IS ONGOING AND SHOULD
EXHAUST LOCAL INSTABILITY FOR A TIME WHICH COULD FORCE NEW
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON DOWN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN ITS ELUSIVE SEARCH FOR
CAPE-RELATED BOUNTY. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TX THIS AFTERNOON IF SUNNY SKIES BREAK OUT LATER TODAY,
SO INTRODUCED A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 3-6" ARE
POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION. SEE MPD #0391 FOR MORE ON SHORT TERM
EXPECTATIONS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN SOUTHEAST TX THROUGH 16Z.


SOUTHEAST AZ
~~~~~~~~~~~~
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75" COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
TODAY SHOULD LEAD TO TYPICAL MONSOON-LIKE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR (20 KTS OR LESS) AND MAGNITUDE
OF THE 700 HPA INFLOW (10 KTS) IMPLY SINGLE CELL/PULSE CONVECTION
TODAY OVER ANYTHING ORGANIZED. CONSIDERING RECENT RAINS FROM
ODILE SATURATING THE AREA, FELT IT WAS PRUDENT TO ADD A "SEE TEXT"
HIGHLIGHT TO THIS AREA. HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 2" ARE POSSIBLE
WHERE CELLS MERGE, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW POCKETS OF FLASH
FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


ROTH/HURLEY
Quoting 501. StormTrackerScott:



Actually it is the mid and upper moisture from Odile got adsorbed into this deep trough across the east. The actual center is still over Texas but a lot of it moisture got sheared off to the east with the jet stream.



Nice ridge of high pressure for the Heartland, eh Scott?
Quoting 502. GatorWX:




Lots of moisture Gator. Are you going to get in on any of that?
Darn you Scott! You had to post the same graphic as I. You really should just let it go, btw. I'm not claiming you to be right or wrong, but you are adding fuel to their fire.
Quoting 476. Naga5000:



Crime rates can be misleading depending on how you analyze them. For example, Orlando has a higher violent crime rate than New Orleans, however New Orleans has a higher homicide rate. The difference? Total response time by paramedics to get to the scene and to get the victim to the hospital (source: Dr. Jay Corzine - UCF). So which city is more dangerous?

Neapolitan was comparing murder rate for the U.S. against the murder rate in Mexico for visiting U.S. Nationals. The main difference here is, more likely than not, U.S. nationals do not travel too far outside of major tourist areas which tend to be very safe (which speaks to the point I think we are trying to get to here regarding Cabo, a major tourist area, and the immediate surrounding area). When you depend on tourism, you put a large amount of resources into making sure the tourists are safe. People tend to not visit places where people die a lot.



Yes he's right in that murder rates in the tourist cities in Mexico are much lower than in the U.S., in fact the crime rate in say Mexico City is actually much lower than in major U.S. cities.
The U.S. actually has pretty low crime rates outside of its high density population zones. The U.S. has some of the worlds most violent big cities.

Mexico's crime is biased more towards the drug cartel areas, but parts of the country are much more peaceful.

Now, I realize that tourists won't be going into drug cartel areas, so I guess that is what Nea was trying to point out.

I wasn't trying to call him out or anything, as you can see I didn't make it into a personal attack (there have been a lot of them in the blog lately though so I understand your concern).

I was just trying to point out that Mexico can be more dangerous than the U.S. depending on where you live. Some major cities in the U.S. like Chicago are even comparable to Mexico's worst crime areas.


Conversely, some areas of the U.S. would be safer to do tourism. I guess I wasn't so much disagreeing with him, as I was just showing things from a different perspective.
Quoting 461. flsky:

Oh great. I'm going to Detroit soon. BTW, whenever people bandy stats all over the place, it's always a good idea to ask for sources.




Since you quoted my post, here are my sources:

http://kxan.com/weather/austin-area-rainfall-tota ls/

http://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-stat ion/dashboard?ID=KTXPFLUG18#history/s20140912/e201 40919/mweek

I just also want to reiterate my sarcasm statement on the duration of time to accumulate rainfall here. As for others' stats on crime rates et all. I won't touch those with a 50 foot pole. Weather is much more fun for me :)
Quoting 490. washingtonian115:

Hahahaha.
Quoting 470. hydrus:




That would be October 4th, same day, close location, and strength of Opal...but I've seen the GFS try to take out the Gulf in late runs for the past month or so.
If you want to see climate changes and development over time between 1984 and 2012, check out almost anywhere on the globe.
Link

go to the Explore The World and type in the county or city you want to see, then zoom to the scale you want.

Glacial Retreat, Amazon Deforestation, Mining in Montana, Lake Urmia, your hometown. It is amazing to see. I was also looking for areas that aren't changing and what I could notice about them.
Quoting 508. CumberlandPlateau:


Lots of moisture Gator. Are you going to get in on any of that?


I'm somewhere under the "X".

Quoting 501. StormTrackerScott:



Actually it is the mid and upper moisture from Odile got adsorbed into this deep trough across the east. The actual center is still over Texas but a lot of it moisture got sheared off to the east with the jet stream.




Well, you're right if you're referring to some of the moisture itself from Odile being in the trough that the shortwave is embedded in. As the trough itself did pull in mid-upper moisture from Odile and is redirecting it over Florida in the upper cyclonic flow. But the mechanism is a shortwave. Now maybe you were just pointing out the moisture source. I was just mentioning that what is producing the rain is diffluent flow aloft and lift from the the shortwave trough digging into the gulf
Quoting 510. Jedkins01:




Yes he's right in that murder rates in the tourist cities in Mexico are much lower than in the U.S., in fact the crime rate in say Mexico City is actually much lower than in major U.S. cities.
The U.S. actually has pretty low crime rates outside of its high density population zones. The U.S. has some of the worlds most violent big cities.

Mexico's crime is biased more towards the drug cartel areas, but parts of the country are much more peaceful.

Now, I realize that tourists won't be going into drug cartel areas, so I guess that is what Nea was trying to point out.

I wasn't trying to call him out or anything, as you can see I didn't make it into a personal attack (there have been a lot of them in the blog lately though so I understand your concern).

I was just trying to point out that Mexico can be more dangerous than the U.S. depending on where you live. Some major cities in the U.S. like Chicago are even comparable to Mexico's worst crime areas.


Conversely, some areas of the U.S. would be safer to do tourism. I guess I wasn't so much disagreeing with him, as I was just showing things from a different perspective.


Oh I know, and I hope you didn't take it as me calling you out, either. I was just butting in and trying to add on to what you and Neap were saying. :)

Interesting note about Chicago, while near the top in number of murders, Chicago isn't near the top at all in homicide rate. Chicago is a very big city so the rate is actually not bad at all. That doesn't mean I will be traveling to see the sights of Chicago's South Side anytime soon.

My department is about half criminology at UCF (they currently have the U.S.'s only domestic violence criminology track), so I get a lot of information about crime. It's very interesting, but I don't have the stomach for it.

Quoting 446. sar2401:

Frontal, and it's expected to move NE and out to sea. We'll see what really happens, but the synoptics are in favor of that solution.


That's good, I see the Canadian model once again wants to submerge the Outer Banks. A strong frontal low even offshore would cause more oceanfront erosion than Arthur did to Bodie Island and north of Hatteras (high tide in Nags Head was 12:15 AM, landfall in Nags Head was about 4 am).

I now see the NHC nor GFS gives this feature much time to acquire subtropical characteristics so it might just be a breezy, drizzly, rip current surf weekend at the OBX, what else is new.
Quoting 475. CumberlandPlateau:




The WPC is too low on precip for North and Central Florida for today, those areas will probably get more rain today than they are depicting in 5 days.
NHC lowered the Best Track for Polo down to 55kt.

I'm going to have to disagree with that...

Lol!


Quoting 512. win1gamegiantsplease:



That would be October 4th, same day, close location, and strength of Opal...but I've seen the GFS try to take out the Gulf in late runs for the past month or so.
Quoting 521. TropicalAnalystwx13:

NHC lowered the Best Track for Polo down to 55kt.

I'm going to have to disagree with that...



Why?
Quoting 520. scottsvb:

Earth Has its Warmest Summer and August on Record

Such a FALSE Report

You can't form a scientific approach when you say warmest on record. Although you could say record but you just can't say ever. The Earth was much much warmer in the past.
Quoting 514. GatorWX:



I'm somewhere under the "X".



You mean the ! silly? :)
Quoting 469. KoritheMan:



Seriously. If I had $20 for every person who either stopped talking to me for no apparent reason (online or in person), blocked me, or whatever... I'd be rich.

I second Cody's thoughts.


How do you know if someone has blocked you? I've been banned a few times and had posts removed in my storied eleven month history as a wunderblogger but I assumed I irked a moderator or something. I usually make a sarcastic post after my ban is up (which has once run up another one lol) and I'm done.
Quoting 459. Skyepony:

After reading & blogging on Odie's aftermath. I'm not really convinced that is the safest town to visit. One story yesterday..the guy made it through the looting & all yesterday but he had been pickpocketed on arrival days before the storm.. It's something warned against.. The State Department advises keeping an eye on bartenders and bar staff as well. Resort-town clubs have been known to slip drugs into customers' drinks. And as in any resort town, beware of pickpockets. & this is true for any tourist.. If you are a tourist in Orlando consider your self as a potential target for someone.

Here is a report for Cabo..



I worked relief in Homestead and Florida City for several days right after Hurricane Andrew, and can attest that crime was as rampant there for several days afterwards than it's been in any of the many Central- and South American towns I've visited. (And for the record, I avoid tourist areas.) Lawlessness, desperation, and corruption do crazy things to people. As I've mentioned before, I was robbed at gunpoint twice in three days, and had both rifles and shotguns aimed at me in other instances. (And the worst part was watching a pair of uniformed police officers looting a small electronics store, then being ordered by them to get away or be arrested.)

So, again, I was responding to STS's comments about how deadly and dangerous is Cabo. In summary: it's not. Not at all.
Quoting 524. CumberlandPlateau:


Why?

The structure on microwave imagery has become much better organized over the past 12 hours, transitioning from a nearly exposed center to a well-defined inner core with great spiral banding. Although SAB and TAFB were T3.5/55kt at 12z, the structure has become better defined since that time, and UW-CIMSS ADT reflects that well with an intensity estimate of T4.4/74.6kt.

We'll see what they say within the next half hour.
Quoting 514. GatorWX:



I'm somewhere under the "X".



Trees like this one Gator, love moisture. This is the Cherrybark Oak. Do you have them down there? Looks like it will be wet all day for you. I hope you didn't have any plans outdoors. The motorcycle can wait I guess huh

I just hope this does not come to pass,this is huge.............................................
Quoting 520. scottsvb:

Earth Has its Warmest Summer and August on Record

Such a FALSE Report


You *must* have data to corroborate your stance, as you speak with such conviction. Please share it with us if you would. Thanks!
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 525. CumberlandPlateau:


You can't form a scientific approach when you say warmest on record. Although you could say record but you just can't say ever. The Earth was much much warmer in the past.


"t’s true that at times in Earth's past the climate has been as warm or even warmer than temperatures projected for the end of this century and beyond. Aside from some warm interglacials, the average climate was last as warm as we expect in 2100 during the Pliocene epoch – before the emergence of the genus Homo which includes you and me. In that time, summer Arctic temperatures were 3°C (5°F) warmer than today, with CO2 levels similar to today’s and sea levels were 15-25m (50-82ft) higher than today. Rain-drenched forests fringed the Arctic Ocean at the time.


Going further back to the Eocene, the world then was very warm and humid – on average 10°C (18°F) warmer than today. Lush swamp forests fringed the Arctic, inhabited by turtles, alligators, primates, tapirs, and the hippo-like Coryphodon (just as the myth claims). Lowland Antarctica was warm and covered in near-tropical vegetation, and London was a mangrove swamp as rainforests spread across much of the planet. Going back even further to the age of the dinosaurs, life flourished in a time of high CO2 and generally warm average temperatures with high sea levels. Even Antarctica was forested and supported a healthy population of dinosaurs." Link


So while technically correct about it being warmer in the past, drastic change to the habitat that allowed for the rise of human beings and civilization seems kind of like a bad idea. Although a London mangrove swamp sounds like a good tourist destination...

The fact is our rate of change is the problem, and while there are still some who deny the very basic scientific processes behind AGW, the evidence is everywhere you look.
Quoting 514. GatorWX:



I'm somewhere under the "X".


sure looks like its going to be a very stormy afternoon-evening here along the gulf coast huh,when all those storms move into florida..so far just overcast with a few drops of rain.
Quoting 534. Naga5000:



"t’s true that at times in Earth's past the climate has been as warm or even warmer than temperatures projected for the end of this century and beyond. Aside from some warm interglacials, the average climate was last as warm as we expect in 2100 during the Pliocene epoch – before the emergence of the genus Homo which includes you and me. In that time, summer Arctic temperatures were 3°C (5°F) warmer than today, with CO2 levels similar to today’s and sea levels were 15-25m (50-82ft) higher than today. Rain-drenched forests fringed the Arctic Ocean at the time.


Going further back to the Eocene, the world then was very warm and humid – on average 10°C (18°F) warmer than today. Lush swamp forests fringed the Arctic, inhabited by turtles, alligators, primates, tapirs, and the hippo-like Coryphodon (just as the myth claims). Lowland Antarctica was warm and covered in near-tropical vegetation, and London was a mangrove swamp as rainforests spread across much of the planet. Going back even further to the age of the dinosaurs, life flourished in a time of high CO2 and generally warm average temperatures with high sea levels. Even Antarctica was forested and supported a healthy population of dinosaurs." Link


So while technically correct about it being warmer in the past, drastic change to the habitat that allowed for the rise of human beings and civilization seems kind of like a bad idea. Although a London mangrove swamp sounds like a good tourist destination...

The fact is our rate of change is the problem, and while there are still some who deny the very basic scientific processes behind AGW, the evidence is everywhere you look.


My point was that it has been warmer in Earth's history that it is today. In fact, MUCH warmer. That is a true statement back by many scientifically peer-reviewed journals. Would you like sources? I will provide. But I will email them instead since I am writing on the next Blog that Doc Master's started.

Thanks Naga. Thanks for your response.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The structure on microwave imagery has become much better organized over the past 12 hours, transitioning from a nearly exposed center to a well-defined inner core with great spiral banding. Although SAB and TAFB were T3.5/55kt at 12z, the structure has become better defined since that time, and UW-CIMSS ADT reflects that well with an intensity estimate of T4.4/74.6kt.

We'll see what they say within the next half hour.


60 knots would seem reasonable to me, imo.
Quoting 536. CumberlandPlateau:


My point was that it has been warmer in Earth's history that it is today. In fact, MUCH warmer. That is a true statement back by many scientifically peer-reviewed journals. Would you like sources? I will provide. But I will email them instead since I am writing on the next Blog that Doc Master's started.

Thanks Naga. Thanks for your response.


I'll respond anytime you choose to contextlessly misrepresent information to push a factually incorrect viewpoint. So you're welcome.
Quoting 466. auburn:

Keep it civil. Personal attacks, bickering, flaming, and general trollish behavior will not be tolerated. Disagreements are fine, but keep them civil and short.
Stay on topic.
No monomania.
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Do not circumvent a ban. Most bans last 24 hours or less, please accept the ban. If you create a new username to circumvent a ban, you will be blocked from the site completely.
No comments that contain only personal notes such as, "Good Morning!", or "You've got mail, X".
Do not "1st!", "1st post!", or any of the numerical/linguistic derivatives. This is a worthless use of blog space.
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Seriously, no spamming. Spamming includes but is not limited to, trying to sell products, trying to solicit traffic for your own blog, trying to solicit traffic for other commercial entities, etc. Do not post links to your own site unless they are directly relevant and even then, use sparingly.
Political comments are allowed, as long as they're in reference to science, science policy, or the blog topic.
Do not quote content which violates the Rules of the Road.



The wu Code is the Law'....
Quoting 530. CumberlandPlateau:


Trees like this one Gator, love moisture. This is the Cherrybark Oak. Do you have them down there? Looks like it will be wet all day for you. I hope you didn't have any plans outdoors. The motorcycle can wait I guess huh




Gotta work @ 3. Don't really have a choice as it's my only transportation.

Quoting 535. LargoFl:

sure looks like its going to be a very stormy afternoon-evening here along the gulf coast huh,when all those storms move into florida..so far just overcast with a few drops of rain.


Looks like the focus for heaviest rain will be Sarasota and north. I think we'll see less down here in Englewood. It sprinkled on my way home from the store. I'm guessing an inch or less by the end of the day here. I've been focusing on where it's piling up and that wnw of here with a ene flow. It's not heating up much at all today. Sitting at 80 now. We shall see.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
948 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE 12Z SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWED A DEEP WESTERLY COMPONENT TO
THE WIND...AND THIS IS DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WAS LOCATED OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...AND LIGHT/MODERATE SHOWERS
AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WERE PUSHING INTO THE GULF COAST
THIS MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS AND EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF SOUTH FLORIDA
AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THE DIGGING SHORTWAVE WILL REINFORCE
THIS FEATURE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION AND THEN PUSH
INTO THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT.

THE DIGGING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE EXTENT OF THE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT THE
GULF COAST WILL HAVE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...BUT THE EAST COAST COULD HAVE SOME LIMITED INSOLATION AND
SLIGHTLY DEEPER CONVECTION.

MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS DUE TO THE REASONS MENTIONED ABOVE. THE
CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE HAS AN AREAL AVERAGE OF AN INCH OF RAIN
FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. SO SOME AREAS COULD RECEIVE HIGHER
AMOUNTS. PONDING ON ROADWAYS AND ISOLATED STREET FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.
Quoting 525. CumberlandPlateau:


You can't form a scientific approach when you say warmest on record. Although you could say record but you just can't say ever. The Earth was much much warmer in the past.
Yep, read it and weep. "record" is what it says. Record. Gotta learn the meaning of that word.
Quoting 544. CaneFreeCR:

Yep, read it and weep. "record" is what it says. Record. Gotta learn the meaning of that word.
Well if it said just record he'd be right. But ON record means recorded history.
Global satellite-measured temperatures in August 2014 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 14th or 8th warmest in the 36-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively.

Or not. What am i missing here? This in itself indicates models and data so unreliable that the conclusions are of little value and this data is certainly not useful for developing public policy.
Quoting 536. CumberlandPlateau:


My point was that it has been warmer in Earth's history that it is today. In fact, MUCH warmer. That is a true statement back by many scientifically peer-reviewed journals. Would you like sources? I will provide. But I will email them instead since I am writing on the next Blog that Doc Master's started.

Thanks Naga. Thanks for your response.

It might be a true statement but it isn't necessarily relevant to most of what is being discussed here.
Quoting 546. canyonboy:

Global satellite-measured temperatures in August 2014 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 14th or 8th warmest in the 36-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively.

Or not. What am i missing here? This in itself indicates models and data so unreliable that the conclusions are of little value and this data is certainly not useful for developing public policy.

No, it doesn't say anything even remotely close to that.

What it says is that two different datasets, measuring something similar (but not exactly the same), measured different anomalies. There are known reasons why the data is this way, and doesn't mean anything close to what you claim.
I'm sorry, but I cannot buy this post.
Quoting 549. SSL1441:

I'm sorry, but I cannot buy this post.


You do know that Cognitive Dissonance is a treatable Mental Illness don't you?

I know, I know, it's just a lot easier to buy into someone telling you what you already decided you wanted to hear than someone telling you what you need to hear .....