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Odile's Remnants Drench Southwest U.S.; Polo Expected to Stay Offshore of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:16 PM GMT on September 18, 2014

Tropical Storm Odile is no more, destroyed by the rough terrain of Mexico and separation from warm ocean waters, after making landfall in the Northern Gulf of California 110 miles south of the Arizona border early Wednesday afternoon. The moisture from Odile lives on over the Southwest U.S., though, and has brought heavy rains of 2 - 4" over portions of Southeast Arizona, Southern New Mexico, and extreme Western Texas as of Thursday morning. Lubbock, Texas was under an areal flood warning Thursday morning, due to rains of 3 - 5", with some thunderstorms dropping rain at a rate of 5" per hour. Additional heavy rains of 3 - 6" will affect Eastern New Mexico and Western Texas over the next two days, as the core of Odile's remnants push eastwards. A flash flood watch is posted for El Paso in Texas, and Las Cruces and Roswell in New Mexico. During the past day, atmospheric moisture levels have been near or above the highest values on record for so late in the year over much of the region (with records going back to 1947.)


Figure 1. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending Thursday, September 25, 2014, from NOAA's Weather Prediction Center. A large area of 3 - 6 " of rain (orange colors) is expected over Eastern New Mexico and Western Texas.

Hurricane Polo brushing Southwest Mexico
Heavy rains are falling along the Pacific coast of Southwest Mexico as Hurricane Polo heads to the northwest, parallel to shore. The models have come into increasing agreement that the core of Polo will stay offshore of both Southwest Mexico and the Baja Peninsula, but Polo's heavy rains of 5 - 10" along the coast of Southwest Mexico represent a serious flooding threat. The 11 am EDT Thursday WInd Probability Forecast from NHC gave Cabo San Lucas on the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula a 30% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds from Polo, and a 1% chance of hurricane-force winds. Satellite loops show that Polo has plenty of heavy thunderstorms, but no eye yet. A hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate Polo Thursday afternoon.


Figure 2. Latest satellite image of Polo.

Edouard still a Category 1 hurricane, but weakening
Hurricane Edouard, the Atlantic's first major hurricane of the past two years, was still a Category 1 storm on Thursday morning, but had begun weakening due to passage over waters cooler than 24°C (75°F). Satellite images show that Edouard has lost its eye and much of its heavy thunderstorms, and is moving very rapidly to the east. Edouard is expected to dissipate without ever hitting any land areas.


Figure 3.The view from NOAA hurricane hunter research aircraft N42RF as it orbited inside the eye of Hurricane Edouard when it was a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds on September 16, 2014. While in the eye, N42RF launched a drone "coyote" aircraft to take measurements at low altitude in the hurricane, where humans fear to go. Image credit: Kristie Twining, NOAA Hurricane Research Division. See the NOAA Hurricane Research Division blog for more details on this year's research missions.


Figure 4. Hurricane Edouard as seen from the International Space Station at approximately 10:30 am EDT Wednesday September 17, 2014. At the time, Edouard was a Category 1 storm with top sustained winds of 90 mph. Image credit: Reid Wiseman.

New African tropical wave 95L off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) that emerged from the coast of Africa on Wednesday night is being given support for developing by two of our three reliable tropical cyclone genesis models. Satellite loops show 95L has a moderate degree of spin, but sparse heavy thunderstorm activity. The wave is under light wind shear and over warm waters of 28°C (82°F), conditions that favor development. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 10% and 20%, respectively. This wave is expected to move northwest near or over the Cape Verdes Islands over the weekend. Once it is northwest of the islands early next week, 95L will encounter drier air and increased wind shear--conditions hostile for development.

Tropical Storm Fung-wong forms near the Philippines
In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Fung-wong spun up in the waters a few hundred miles east of the Philippines on Wednesday, and is expected to intensify into a Category 1 typhoon and brush the northern end of the Philippines' Luzon Island on Friday. Fung-wong may be a threat to Japan early next week.

The iCyclone Facebook page has some frightening video of Odile's landfall in Cabo San Lucas, showing the inside of storm chaser Josh Morgerman's hotel taking heavy damage.

August 2014 was Earth's warmest August on record said NOAA today, and I'll have a new post with the details this afternoon.

Jeff Masters
ashcreekoverdriveway.JPG
ashcreekoverdriveway.JPG
Chock Full O' Lightning
Chock Full O' Lightning
This is a composite of six images. Four have lightning strikes, one had a strike so bright it blew out the sky but lit up the ground so I used that brighten the ground, then one that had no strikes I used to naturally tone down the spots that were too bright in the clouds. Such a show last night! The images were 30 second exposures at f/4.5 ISO 400
Stormy Starry Sky
Stormy Starry Sky
This is another one of those moments in New Mexico when we experience rain, clouds, lightning and a bit of clear starry sky all at the same time!

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks, Doc.


Thanks for the new Post Dr. Masters,
How is your weather Sensei?
Love the photos!
DWH (DW Hooks airport, small general aviation) picked up 1.23 inches in the last hour. Probably the closest obs to my lawn. I'm not that terribly far from IAH either, they only got 0.60 inches, but the storm isn't done there.


12Z HRRR shows more showers and storms through 6 pm local.



See, we don't need a 15 day GFS storm unlikely to verify to have interesting weather.
Quoting 3. Grothar:




Proverbial squashed spider.
Hi guys I have a question regarding the caribbean and its lack of convection.
We are getting the odd daytime shower here from daytime heating but as you all can see its void of anything.
While I know shear is higher than usual it has decreased somewhat from earlier in the season and still nothing.
What is the setup atmosphere wise and system wise to have sustained substantial rainfall in the central to western caribbean? It just seems that even with windshear decreasing nothing can last more than a day or two.
I say thhis and by this afternoon there will be a big blob! anyway just confused by our general lack of rain and its depressing!
0Z EPS Control (Half resolution Euro ensemble member run 15 days with same initial conditions as the op) takes the lowering pressure seen on Hour 240 Op Euro, and by 14 days has closed off what appears to be a fairly weak low in the BoC that seems to be drifting Northwest towards Northern Mexico or extreme South Texas end of the run.

Just as an FYI.

Good morning. Austin got soaked last night. Areas getting up to 7" in some spots. My office next to Shoal Creek flooded out two of the buildings after it spilled over its banks and tore out the fence. Both garbage dumpsters floated away and are nowhere to be found and the hydromet flood gauge ripped off its mooring and is sitting on the ground right now. The BMX park next door is under about a foot of water.Another couple of inches are expected today.



Thank you Dr. Masters.
looking good, maybe 30/30 next TWO.

Ok on ASCAT.
I expect 30mph next ATCF.
Some of this is a repost from last night.

Bryan H. %u200F@theCTA 6m

Sad 2 see those who want the news 2 report on looting in #Cabo. How about reporting on how many are now homeless after #HurricaneODILE ??


This area is used to receiving daily shipments of supplies. It really isn't surprising to see looting. It is also likely a necessary evil at the moment. Some of the stuff that is being looted wouldn't last anyway. Bread, frozen goods, etc. Even the stuff that would last; it's likely that store owners won't be around to collect payment. Also hard to get funds I am sure. Granted, there really isn't an excuse for walking out of a store with a flat screen TV.

That said, I concur with the general consensus of the tweet. There is little to no information coming out about the residents of the Pen. There also seems to be a real lack of interest in it. I'll use this blogosphere as an example and I will preface it with the fact that I'm not throwing stones at any one individual. That said, what has taken place on the Baja Pen is likely, hopefully, a once in a lifetime weather event. Meanwhile, the interests of the weather junkies here seems to still focus on GW, how much rain Fl will get, Eduardo making major and why it didn't get upgraded sooner, why the Atl is so quiet, is El Nino coming, will 2100 be any more active in the Atlantic, etc, etc, etc...

Everyone here has just witnessed something unique, fascinating, a humanitarian disaster of epic proportions...And yet it doesn't seem to captivate the way I would expect it would. I hope this isn't a sign of the help that Baja will receive in the coming weeks and months.






















Not bad for an invest.
Wow! Those photos are fantastic! Thank you to the WU members who posted them.
It is beginning to look like the end of the cape verdes season. yet another year of of dry air and stable conditions in the MDR.
Quoting 16. StormJunkie:

Some of this is a repost from last night


has the Mexican government requested help or are they doing it on there own
really not much info getting out on it
I think that may actually be part of government plan
as the visitors get out and home
you will see and hear more about it
and what is really going on there
Thanks Dr. Masters!
Quoting 4. PedleyCA:

How is your weather Sensei?


Humid, overcast and hot. How's by you, Grasshopper?
Quoting 16. StormJunkie:

Some of this is a repost from last night.

I hear ya, SJ. Perhaps Doc M (Add: and or The Weather Channel) could lead the way.

At the tail end of previous blog, I was typing this comment in response to what you said when this new blog got posted. Bringing it forward.
Quoting 481. StormJunkie:

Bryan H. %u200F@theCTA 6m

Sad 2 see those who want the news 2 report on looting in #Cabo. How about reporting on how many are now homeless after #HurricaneODILE ??


This area receives daily shipments of supplies. It really isn't surprising to see looting. It is also likely a necessary evil at the moment. Some of the stuff that is being looted wouldn't last anyway. Bread, frozen goods, etc. Even the stuff that would last; it's likely that store owners won't be around to collect payment. Also hard to get funds I am sure. Granted, there really isn't an excuse for walking out of a store with a flat screen TV.

That said, I concur with the general consensus of the tweet. There is little to no information coming out about the residents of the Pen. There also seems to be a real lack of interest in it. I'll use this blogosphere as an example and I will preface it with the fact that I'm not throwing stones at any one individual. That said, what has taken place on the Baja Pen is likely, hopefully, a once in a lifetime weather event. Meanwhile, the interests of the weather junkies here seems to still focus on GW, how much rain Fl will get, Eduardo making major and why it didn't get upgraded sooner, why the Atl is so quiet, is El Nino coming, will 2100 be any more active in the Atlantic, etc, etc, etc...

Everyone here has just witnessed something unique, fascinating, a humanitarian disaster of epic proportions...And yet it doesn't seem to captivate the way I would expect it would. I hope this isn't a sign of the help that Baja will receive in the coming weeks and months.
One thing to be thankful for: There does not seem to be the (usual) contingent of clueless bloggers critiquing every move made by officials and, oh, the (usual) glaring condemnations of weather forecasters, local building codes and local customs. Likely because this hurricane affected Mexico not the U.S.

Some who blog here have never seen this type of natural destruction and have no clue what it means to have your life gone, wiped out in a moment, yet still be "alive." Sad fact is, some of them bloggers may end up "learning the hard way."
Thanks Jeff...
Having been through an event like this I feel for these people.
It doesnt help that much of the city was likely not built to the same standard as the resorts etc.
This is a time for the private sector (hotel companies, and that costco in the picture) to step up.
Quoting 20. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



has the Mexican government requested help or are they doing it on there own
really not much info getting out on it
I think that may actually be part of government plan
as the visitors get out and home
you will see and hear more about it
and what is really going on there


Keep, I agree that part of the lack of information is because the Government isn't making an effort to get info out. I also think that part of it is because I am sure they have their hands full trying to get the tourists out. In the condition the Pen is in, resources are scarce as is...One reason they need the tourists out is to free up the resources for the locals.

As for the idea that they don't want help; I'm not convinced. The one report I saw of that was what Sar posted from a ham operator. I can't find any other information to support that atm. It may be that the Mexican authorities do not want foreign military personnel on the ground right now, but again I have only seen the one report of that from the ham operator. Other than that, there is no credible information that I have seen that supports the idea they don't want help.
Quoting 22. Grothar:



Humid, overcast and hot. How's by you, Grasshopper?

Finally cooled off, was 103 for 2 days then 97 yesterday and now it is forecast 85F.
Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 8:50 AM PDT on September 18, 2014
Clear
69.4 °F
Clear
Humidity: 78%
Dew Point: 62 °F
Wind: 4.0 mph from the NNW
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Pressure: 29.85 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles

iCyclone
Hey, folks! Here's a very tiny taste of the footage Steve and I shot in our hotel lobby as Hurricane ODILE's winds tore it apart. It's cool because you see the lobby from two angles as the violence happens. Glass was flying everywhere, and we both had blood pouring down our legs-- but we kept the cameras rolling because we knew these moments were unforgettable. (Yeah, we were both a little freaked out while it was happening.) As with all chases, iCyclone will release a detailed video diary, with timestamps, in the near future. -Josh

Link
Quoting 25. 19N81W:

Having been through an event like this I feel for these people.
It doesnt help that much of the city was likely not built to the same standard as the resorts etc.
This is a time for the private sector (hotel companies, and that costco in the picture) to step up.



and just how are they going to step up as you said .. infrastructure is down and only the military has the means to move around the area ..
Some of the more significant rainfall totals for Central Texas/Austin area.



TRAVIS...
4 W SUNSET VALLEY 6.41 IN 0800 AM 09/18 30.23N/97.88W
4 NW TANGLEWOOD FOREST 6.21 IN 0700 AM 09/18 30.21N/97.88W
3 NW TANGLEWOOD FOREST 6.09 IN 0700 AM 09/18 30.21N/97.88W
4 NNE WEST LAKE HILLS 6.04 IN 1025 AM 09/18 30.35N/97.80W
5 NNW AUSTIN 6.01 IN 1010 AM 09/18 30.37N/97.78W
1 WNW TANGLEWOOD FOREST 5.95 IN 1050 AM 09/18 30.18N/97.86W
1 NE TANGLEWOOD FOREST 5.89 IN 0700 AM 09/18 30.18N/97.83W
1 WNW SUNSET VALLEY 5.80 IN 0700 AM 09/18 30.23N/97.85W
2 NNE LOST CREEK 5.60 IN 0700 AM 09/18 30.32N/97.83W
5 NNE AUSTIN 5.57 IN 0600 AM 09/18 30.37N/97.73W
1 NNE SAN LEANNA 5.56 IN 0700 AM 09/18 30.16N/97.81W
Quoting 29. whitewabit:



and just how are they going to step up as you said .. infrastructure is down and only the military has the means to move around the area ..

money that will be required to rebuild...at the moment its a mess obviously but if they can restore order it will be up to the private sector working with local governments to rebuild. If left to government alone it will never happen.
Quoting 26. StormJunkie:



Keep, I agree that part of the lack of information is because the Government isn't making an effort to get info out. I also think that part of it is because I am sure they have their hands full trying to get the tourists out. In the condition the Pen is in, resources are scarce as is...One reason they need the tourists out is to free up the resources for the locals.

As for the idea that they don't want help; I'm not convinced. The one report I saw of that was what Sar posted from a ham operator. I can't find any other information to support that atm. It may be that the Mexican authorities do not want foreign military personnel on the ground right now, but again I have only seen the one report of that from the ham operator. Other than that, there is no credible information that I have seen that supports the idea they don't want help.
I read somewhere
gonna try and find it
that its actually how the government works in mexico
not really stopping info from getting out but maybe from getting into the wrong hands
and they take advantage of the situation making it harder for the government to regain or keep control
I don't know
I am looking for news and there is really not a lot coming out other regions like cabo have likely suffered the same fate and the only reason we are even hearing or seeing anything is because of visitors that are getting out and telling there stories that's something the mex government can't stop
Any Model support for a formation of a low along old frontal boundry off Floridas West coast over the next 48 hrs ?
Quoting 29. whitewabit:



and just how are they going to step up as you said .. infrastructure is down and only the military has the means to move around the area ..
They can make an offer and not wait to be asked. So could the U.S government. I'm not talking military. Mexico has that. I'm talking humanitarian, you know food, water... diapers. Where's the Red Cross even? Maybe the Mexican government does not want help, but it would not hurt to offer.

bfout
Quoting 31. 19N81W:


money
Quoting 31. 19N81W:


money


and whose pocket do you expect these company's to fill ?? and why do you feel they should provide money for the relief ..
Quoting 28. TropicalAnalystwx13:


iCyclone
Hey, folks! Here's a very tiny taste of the footage Steve and I shot in our hotel lobby as Hurricane ODILE's winds tore it apart. It's cool because you see the lobby from two angles as the violence happens. Glass was flying everywhere, and we both had blood pouring down our legs-- but we kept the cameras rolling because we knew these moments were unforgettable. (Yeah, we were both a little freaked out while it was happening.) As with all chases, iCyclone will release a detailed video diary, with timestamps, in the near future. -Josh

Link
OMG
Quoting 34. Barefootontherocks:

They can make an offer and not wait to be asked. So could the U.S government. I'm not talking military. Mexico has that. I'm talking humanitarian, you know food, water... diapers. Where's the Red Cross even? Maybe the Mexican government does not want help, but it would not hurt to offer.

bfout


Barefoot we don't know that these things are not being done .. but if they can't get into the closed airports what are they to do till they are reopened ..
Quoting tampaskywatcher:
Any Model support for a formation of a low along old frontal boundry off Floridas West coast over the next 48 hrs ?


Based on the models a more likely location for the formation of a Low is off the eastcoast of Florida.
Quoting 29. whitewabit:



and just how are they going to step up as you said .. infrastructure is down and only the military has the means to move around the area ..


The ability to move around the area will change in the coming days and weeks. As for how to step up...For one, assisting in keeping the event "current" is one way. It's only been 4 days and interest levels already seem to be on the decline. Money always helps as long as it gets in to the correct hands. The correct hands part is what will be difficult. Other ways will become more apparent as time goes on, but again, I think keeping the event "current" for the next 6 + months is one of the biggest challenges.
Quoting 10. calkevin77:

Maybe another 5 inches over today and tomorrow? That little area of vorticity over Houston looks to stick around, and according to KXAN an actual piece of Odile broke off and is coming our way. 80% today and Friday.
Quoting 38. Sfloridacat5:



Based on the models a more likely location for the formation of a Low is off the eastcoast of Florida.


Thanks just saw a local forecast here in tampa their "in House" model showed a nice low forming Saturday afternoon and evening in the Gulf
Quoting 39. StormJunkie:



The ability to move around the area will change in the coming days and weeks. As for how to step up...For one, assisting in keeping the event "current" is one way. It's only been 4 days and interest levels already seem to be on the decline. Money always helps as long as it gets in to the correct hands. The correct hands part is what will be difficult. Other ways will become more apparent as time goes on, but again, I think keeping the event "current" for the next 6 + months is one of the biggest challenges.


that is by faar the biggest challenge .. people forget very quickly .. and the people in the area will need assistance for a number of years to rebuild ..
Here's what I could find on The Red Cross

I am not sure of the specifics, but I think that care should be used in donations. Not sure if they need to be directed to the Mexican Red Cross. If they go to American Red Cross; I don't know how much will get to Baja. I am sure there will also be relief efforts that become more transparent in the coming weeks. Ones that will be specifically directed at long term rebuilding for the residents of the Pen. Right now, I am sure everything is focused on immediate needs.
Quoting 37. whitewabit:



Barefoot we don't know that these things are not being done .. but if they can't get into the closed airports what are they to do till they are reopened ..
Good point there, wab.
Nothing in the news that I've seen. I don't see any major celebrities offering to do a benefit concert. No word from anyone, any organization offering humanitarian aid, but then...
As of now, I realize I have become one of those "clueless bloggers" who criticize following a disaster... Gone.
:)
bfout#2
Quoting 43. StormJunkie:

Here's what I could find on The Red Cross
Thanks SJ. Restores my faith in all of humanity.
:)
(Add: Well, maybe not all of humanity, but some.)
bf out#3
new inning
Quoting 1. Grothar:

Thanks, Doc.





You prophecy on post #666 in the previous blog came true...
Quoting 42. whitewabit:



that is by faar the biggest challenge .. people forget very quickly .. and the people in the area will need assistance for a number of years to rebuild ..

Just getting the stores re-opened will be a big help. If the survivors can get to functioning stores, the people will rebuild their lives themselves.
More good comic relief on the 12z GFS...

HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
1100 AM AST THU SEP 18 2014

A 0906 UTC SSMIS pass showed that the eyewall of Edouard had opened
up on the southwest side and the circulation was becoming somewhat
tilted with height. This tilt was confirmed by an ASCAT pass around
1230 UTC. The coverage of cold convective tops is gradually
decreasing, and the initial intensity is lowered to 70 kt based on a
blend of subjective and objective Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB,
and UW-CIMSS. Given that the cyclone will be moving over cooler
waters and experiencing increased vertical wind shear, steady
weakening is expected during the next 24 hours. Edouard should lose
its deep convection in 36 to 48 hours and become post-tropical by
that time. Global model fields show the circulation of Edouard
dissipating by the end of the period, and that is reflected in the
official forecast. The new NHC intensity forecast is an update of
the previous one and is close to the IVCN multi-model consensus.

The initial motion estimate is now eastward, or 085/22, as Edouard
is currently located north of a mid-level ridge over the central
Atlantic. The cyclone will move eastward and then southeastward
around this ridge during the next 72 hours, and then turn southward
by day 4. Most of the track model guidance remains in good agreement
on this scenario, with the continued exception of the GFDL and
UKMET which show a more northeastward and southward motion,
respectively. The new NHC track forecast is close to a consensus of
the GFS and ECMWF models, and is similar to the previous advisory.

The initial wind radii were modified based on data from the
above-mentioned ASCAT pass.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 39.9N 42.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 40.1N 39.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 39.9N 37.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 40.0N 36.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
Quoting 37. whitewabit:



Barefoot we don't know that these things are not being done .. but if they can't get into the closed airports what are they to do till they are reopened ..


I am sure things are being coordinated and done at the moment. Right now about the only entity that can get there from here is probably the US Military with Chinooks. Once the airports (and seaports) are open the traditional aid should start to flow. This includes the red cross.

When I helped with some coordination after the EQ in Haiti, logistics was a HUGE challenge. They were overcome, but it doesn't happen overnight.
Quoting tampaskywatcher:


Thanks just saw a local forecast here in tampa their "in House" model showed a nice low forming Saturday afternoon and evening in the Gulf


Not sure what model they use. I know some use the NAM for short range forecasting.

18Z NAM from yesterday was bringing a nice circulation into the westcoast.


The energy for the eastcoast low is coming from the GOM. But the GFS and NAM wait to form the Low off the eastcoast.


Today's NAM
12Z NAM at 66 hours



12Z GFS at 60 hours - matches up pretty well with the NAM

Quoting 40. redwagon:

Quoting 10. calkevin77:

Maybe another 5 inches over today and tomorrow? That little area of vorticity over Houston looks to stick around, and according to KXAN an actual piece of Odile broke off and is coming our way. 80% today and Friday.


Yeah. I think SE Texas is going to get the brunt of the moisture today. I've seen weather stations around the Woodlands and Spring already picking up a couple of inches. I would imagine with moisture coming off the gulf as well as the EPAC storm's remnants that a few areas out there will have a training of some cells.

EDIT: Also, we have a deputy sheriff who appears to have been overtaken by flash flooding last night and swept down river. Not looking good for her :(


http://kxan.com/2014/09/18/rescuers-searching-for -person-reportedly-swept-away-in-waters/
Quoting 46. Barefootontherocks:

Thanks SJ. Restores my faith in all of humanity.
:)
(Add: Well, maybe not all of humanity, but some.)
bf out#3
new inning
Yay! Alaska Airlines in the batter's box.

UPDATE Wednesday, Sept. 17, 7:45 p.m.
The first two domestic flights out of Los Cabos arrived safely in Los Angeles and San Diego this evening. A third, flight 279, is expected to arrive at about 9:20 p.m.
The airport remains closed to commercial air service, but local authorities have authorized outgoing humanitarian relief flights. Customers waiting at the airport are being boarded on those flights on a first come, first serve basis.
For Thursday, Sept. 18:
All flights to Los Cabos have been canceled.

Alaska will operate six humanitarian relief flights out of Los Cabos International Airport. The six flights to Los Cabos will be loaded with water, food and supplies.
The following flights are planned for Thursday:
Flight 201: Los Cabos to San Jose
Flight 233: Los Cabos to San Diego
Flight 235: Los Cabos to San Francisco
Flight 239: Los Cabos to San Diego
Flight 251: Los Cabos to Los Angeles
Flight 279: Los Cabos to Los Angeles

Alaska Airlines Begins relief flights in Mexico
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Not sure what model they use. I know some use the NAM for short range forecasting.

18Z NAM from yesterday was bringing a nice circulation into the westcoast.


The energy for the eastcoast low is coming from the GOM. But the GFS and NAM wait to form the Low off the eastcoast.


Today's NAM
12Z NAM at 66 hours



12Z GFS at 60 hours - matches up pretty well with the NAM

Could it run an Arthur? I give this 0/30.
Quoting 52. Sfloridacat5:



Not sure what model they use. I know some use the NAM for short range forecasting.

18Z NAM from yesterday was bringing a nice circulation into the westcoast.


The energy for the eastcoast low is coming from the GOM. But the GFS and NAM wait to form the Low off the eastcoast.


Today's NAM
12Z NAM at 66 hours



12Z GFS at 60 hours - matches up pretty well with the NAM




Thanks for the insight !
Hi NCstorm,
How is the weather up in North Carolina?
Quoting 29. whitewabit:



and just how are they going to step up as you said .. infrastructure is down and only the military has the means to move around the area ..
The best option would be steam some naval vessels down from San Diego with av fuel for Helicopters and emergency supplies. Without infrastructure ground trans is worthless.
Quoting 39. StormJunkie:



The ability to move around the area will change in the coming days and weeks. As for how to step up...For one, assisting in keeping the event "current" is one way. It's only been 4 days and interest levels already seem to be on the decline. Money always helps as long as it gets in to the correct hands. The correct hands part is what will be difficult. Other ways will become more apparent as time goes on, but again, I think keeping the event "current" for the next 6 + months is one of the biggest challenges.
The blogger from the Baja who posted some info about relief organizations early on mentioned one that seems to be capable and has a history of similar relief work -- Baja Bush Pilots. They can get in and out with small planes carrying medicines and other necessities. Donations to them help pay for fuel and supplies to be flown in. That is a good form of direct action.
The West Caribbean and Gulf may need to be watched in late September into early October as heights build across southern Canada and the northern United States, forcing convergence into those regions. It remains to be seen if shear will be favorable.

DOOOOMMM!!
:) ;(


no way east coast storm
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Edouard, located about 900 miles west of the western Azores.

A tropical wave, accompanied by a broad low pressure system, is
located just off of the west coast of Africa. Although shower and
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized, environmental conditions
are expected to be at least marginally conducive for some gradual
development of this system over the next several days while it moves
slowly west-northwestward to northwestward over the far eastern
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
INVEST 95L

A broad area of low pressure could form off of the east coast of
Florida over the weekend. This system will have some potential to
acquire tropical or subtropical characteristics while it moves
northeastward near or offshore of the southeastern coast of the
United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Thanks Dr; have had a busy day and was just able to check in. Looks like the potential flash flood issue for Roswell, New Mexico might finally wash away any remnants of the 1947 Roswell Crash once and for all........................


YELLOW FOR THE EAST COAST and invest 95L
Quoting 53. calkevin77:

I know... and she was a strong swimmer and diver. Prayers.
Quoting 64. weathermanwannabe:

Thanks Dr; have had a busy day and was just able to check in. Looks like the potential flash flood issue for Roswell, New Mexico might finally wash away any remnants of the 1947 Roswell Crash once and for all........................


might be just the opposite .. flooding could wash artifacts to lower lying areas and uncover objects that were embedded into the ground during the crash ..
Quoting 67. whitewabit:



might be just the opposite .. flooding could wash artifacts to lower lying areas and uncover objects that were embedded into the ground during the crash ..


Lol........................ :)
If we don't get anything by next week, it looks like the GOM is shut down for the season.
Nice, glassy head+ surf in Brevard County, FL courteous of Hurricane Edouard.

9/17/14




Quoting hurricanes2018:


no way east coast storm


Looks like only the Outerbanks might be affected by the low.
Also 75 hours (3 days from now) isn't a lot of time for a low to form and strengthen.
There's also the question of whether the low will be tropical.

If it's going to happen the low should be in the process of forming right now in the Florida region. This morning I was watching a weak circulation off the eastcoast of Fl. which could end up being our low.

GFS in 75 hours (Sunday)



Quoting 65. hurricanes2018:



YELLOW FOR THE EAST COAST and invest 95L


I've been saying it for days.
Thanks doc!
Quoting 36. Gearsts:

OMG
you cannot stop the wind
Quoting GatorWX:
Nice, glassy head+ surf in Brevard County, FL courteous of Hurricane Edouard.

9/17/14






Some really nice surf. It also looks like it would be pretty easy getting out in the line up (coming in in sets).
It appears we could get some activity in the Weatern Caribbian and the Bahama's!
Quoting 72. Grothar:



I've been saying it for days.


I've been saying it for...uh...day...

Quoting 579. beell:

With the upper short wave trough over the east coast, a cold-core disturbance from sub-tropical beginnings at best.






A broad area of low pressure could form off of the east coast of
Florida over the weekend. This system will have some potential to
acquire
tropical or subtropical characteristics while it moves
northeastward near or offshore of the southeastern coast of the
United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


;)
Quoting 75. Sfloridacat5:



Some really nice surf. It also looks like it would be pretty easy getting out in the line up (coming in in sets).



Coming straight in, light offshore wind, long distance ground swell, long lines. Would've made for a good ecoast run.
Quoting 60. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The West Caribbean and Gulf may need to be watched in late September into early October as heights build across southern Canada and the northern United States, forcing convergence into those regions. It remains to be seen if shear will be favorable.


Typhoon Wong-Jung actually favors lowering hieghts over the East 10 days from now.;)
I think a low might form at the area of convergence off the eastcoast of Florida.
You can see a weak elongated circulation on visible satellite.

Quoting 80. weatherbro:



Typhoon Wong-Jung actually favors lowering hieghts over the East 10 days from now.;)


As it recurves.
Quoting 59. CaneFreeCR:

The blogger from the Baja who posted some info about relief organizations early on mentioned one that seems to be capable and has a history of similar relief work -- Baja Bush Pilots. They can get in and out with small planes carrying medicines and other necessities. Donations to them help pay for fuel and supplies to be flown in. That is a good form of direct action.

Apparently Baja Bush Pilots is an organization out of, has a PO Box in Chandler, AZ. There's a discussion thread about Odile at their website. Have to be a member of the organization to read it. Wonder how many of them got their planes out in time and, if they did, wonder if they're doing anything for the local people. Add: Or gearing up to do anything.

I've said my piece.
bf out#4. That's a good number.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
More good comic relief on the 12z GFS...



Looks like 95L may become our 6th name storm of the year. My guess is we will get around 9 maybe 10 named storms this year. Certainly not 7, that forecast will be invalid in about a month lol :o)
NHC picked up on the possible development off of the East Coast the models were hinting.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Edouard, located about 900 miles west of the western Azores.

1. A tropical wave, accompanied by a broad low pressure system, is
located just off of the west coast of Africa. Although shower and
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized, environmental conditions
are expected to be at least marginally conducive for some gradual
development of this system over the next several days while it moves
slowly west-northwestward to northwestward over the far eastern
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

2. A broad area of low pressure could form off of the east coast of
Florida over the weekend. This system will have some potential to
acquire tropical or subtropical characteristics while it moves
northeastward near or offshore of the southeastern coast of the
United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Stewart
That area just off the eastcoast of Florida matches up to the GFS forecast.


GFS shows a low forming in that area by Saturday.
Yes you have :-)

Quoting 72. Grothar:



I've been saying it for days.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
I think a low might form at the area of convergence off the eastcoast of Florida.
You can see a weak elongated circulation on visible satellite.

From the 2:05 Discussion -

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE ATLC ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE WESTERN GULF WATERS.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM
24N-29N W OF 92W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN...NO CONVECTION IS
NOTICED. FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...A FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY
LOCATED ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WILL MOVE S ACROSS THE PENINSULA
WHILE THE PORTION OF THE TROUGH OVER GULF WATERS WILL STALL
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL GULF. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE GULF ON FRIDAY.

The trough already located across south Florida with the quasi-stationary front to the north -

Quoting weatherbro:


Typhoon Wong-Jung actually favors lowering hieghts over the East 10 days from now.;)

10 days is not a set in stone number for that rule, but it's usually around that time. In this case, a pretty deep trough should dig into the East USA in about a week, but GFS ensembles suggest it'll be replaced with significant ridging centered over southeastern Canada as we head into the last week of the month.
Quoting 85. StormWx:



Looks like 95L may become our 6th name storm of the year. My guess is we will get around 9 maybe 10 named storms this year. Certainly not 7, that forecast will be invalid in about a month lol :o)


The system the GFS shows development of in the GOM starts as a piece of energy from the Pacific.





Hurricane POLO
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT APPROACHING POLO...
11:00 AM PDT Thu Sep 18 2014
Location: 17.4°N 105.8°W
Moving: NW at 8 mph
Min pressure: 988 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph
Quoting GatorWX:


The system the GFS shows development of in the GOM starts as a piece of energy from the Pacific.






Thats interesting, and how nice of the Pacific to share with us folks in the GOM and Atlantic :)
Particularly dangerous situation in the Houston area from flooding. Many areas have already seen 5-8 inches of rain in the past 2 days, and the forecast does not appear to getting any better tonight through tomorrow night.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Hey Folks…I've been following Dr. Masters for a long time…and everybody's comments, but are just now writing for the first time. I have been an independent catastrophe adjuster for about 20 years…and I've worked about every major hurricane that has hit the US since Fran 1996 (my whereabouts is always related to a storm). I'm not a prognosticator of storm development like you fine folks, but would like to see all the different models that are used in your SWAG's. Can anybody post the links for the recommended models?

Thanks so much…JH

(I'll share some funny and sad storm stories at some point…if you want to hear them)
Frontal remnants and trofs are often potential genesis grounds for tropical storms but this particular one way off the Florida/SE coast doesn't look "right" to me at the moment...............Have to see if any of this is able to consolidate or "break off" in the coming days:


A little relief for TX this past week:

Quoting 96. adjusterjh:

Hey Folks…I've been following Dr. Masters for a long time…and everybody's comments, but are just now writing for the first time. I have been an independent catastrophe adjuster for about 20 years…and I've worked about every major hurricane that has hit the US since Fran 1996 (my whereabouts is always related to a storm). I'm not a prognosticator of storm development like you fine folks, but would like to see all the different models that are used in your SWAG's. Can anybody post the links for the recommended models?

Thanks so much…JH

(I'll share some funny and sad storm stories at some point…if you want to hear them)


welcome on board...
Thank you doc for all those timely updates. Flooding (nearly) everwhere. More destruction in the northern parts of the Mediterranean area as well, as the wet summer is obviously transformed into a wet atumn. Here a little collection of news, but I keep it short.


Source: Daily Mail Photo Gallery

Five die as flash flood sweeps through French camping site
RTE News, Thursday 18 September 2014 17.49
Five people died when storms turned a peaceful river that bordered their camping site in southern France into a raging torrent that swept them away. The site in Lamalou-les-Bains was devastated by the flood overnight. ...

Serbia devastated by deadly floods (00:54)
18/09/14 At least one person is dead and three are missing after Serbian towns and villages were hit by massive flooding that destroyed houses and infrastructure.

Youtube-Video

Balkans hit by fresh flooding; three dead
Reuters, By Aleksandar Vasovic, BELGRADE Tue Sep 16, 2014 6:18am EDT
One person died in Serbia and authorities scrambled to evacuate hundreds of others from villages threatened by rising rivers, officials said on Tuesday, in scenes recalling the devastating May flooding that killed dozens.
The Serbian government has declared a state of emergency in three eastern municipalities along the River Danube - Kladovo, Negotin and Majdanpek - after several days of heavy rainfall.
In neighboring Croatia, around two-thirds of 21 counties were inundated with rain over the weekend and thousands were evacuated. Two people died in Slovenia at the weekend when their vehicle was swept away. In Bosnia, hundreds of homes in the west and north were flooded over the weekend but no casualties have been reported and water levels have begun to recede. ...

Quoting whitewabit:


Barefoot we don't know that these things are not being done .. but if they can't get into the closed airports what are they to do till they are reopened ..
I wrote about what I know from the ham radio hurricane net last night. Los Cabos San Jose and La Paz airports have functioning runways with temporary air traffic control set up by the Mexican Air Force and The Directorate General of Civil Aeronautics. The only aircraft flying in or out are being coordinated by those two agencies. C-130's and C-295's are flying in humanitarian supplies and flying out tourists. The Mexican Air Force is using every plane they have including their fleet of VIP jets. They hope to have all the tourists out by tomorrow.

Grocery stores are giving food away to those in need. There was some looting on Tuesday but that has been stopped by a combination of the Mexican Marines and Federal Police. Resorts that have functioning generators are acting as relief kitchens, and hundreds of tents have been flown in. The last plan I heard the plan was to set them up on golf courses near resort hotels to ease logistics for feeding and sanitation.

The Mexican Navy has a large amphibious landing ship filled with engineering troops and relief supplies as well as several smaller ships that should either be in Cabo now or arriving shortly. They have experience bringing relief supplies to Haiti after the quake and Cuba after Sandy. From what the Mexican hams have seen, the conditions are tough but they think the government and the Mexican Red Cross (Cruz Roja) are doing as good a job as possible in providing relief. I know the US government has offered military humanitarian assistance and, so far, the Mexicans have turned it down. They believe they have the resources to handle this on their own. That may or may not be true, but we simply can't go sailing in there without a request by the host government.

You can donate to the US Red Cross or Salvation Army and mark your donation for Baja California hurricane relief. The money will be used to buy needed goods and services and both organizations are reasonably trustworthy. Do NOT donate to any agency that claims to be helping in hurricane relief unless you have checked them out at Charity Watch first. There are already scams springing up, especially on Facebook. Do NOT donate money directly to any Mexican government agency or some group claiming to represent the government. These are almost always frauds.

As SJ wrote, the most important thing is to keep posting whatever news that can be found. Some of what I've seen has been wrong or inaccurate but, at this point, I'd rather see something coming out about Baja than nothing. Once all the tourists are gone, this story will fade quickly. :-(

2. A broad area of low pressure could form off of the east coast of
Florida over the weekend. This system will have some potential to
acquire tropical or subtropical characteristics while it moves
northeastward near or offshore of the southeastern coast of the
United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Stewart




Quoting 97. weathermanwannabe:

Frontal remnants and trofs are often potential genesis grounds for tropical storms but this particular one way off the Florida/SE coast doesn't look "right" to me at the moment...............Have to see if any of this is able to consolidate or "break off" in the coming days:



supposedly a LOW is supposed to cross florida tomorrow,that May be..the one trying to form off the east coast over the weekend..i could be wrong.
Quoting StormWx:


Thats interesting, and how nice of the Pacific to share with us folks in the GOM and Atlantic :)


I would be nice, because it's been the opposite all season.
The Southern Caribbean has been producing lows that have been crossing Central American and into the EPAC for most of the summer.

Afternoon, all.... just looking in real quick.... still have a few hours of work before I can look. I'm glad to hear SOME relief is getting to Baja... and unfortunately I think SAR has it right when he says the story will quickly fade... and with it the support...
Quoting 70. GatorWX:

Nice, glassy head+ surf in Brevard County, FL courteous of Hurricane Edouard.

9/17/14







It's amazing how far surf from hurricanes can travel, considering that eduoard's moving away from the east coast and is on the same latitude as Springfield, Illinois.
108. flsky
I would highly recommend using the Salvation Army. Excellent organization (no, I'm not a member, but I HAVE been helped by them after a flood).
Quoting 101. sar2401:

I wrote about what I know from the ham radio hurricane net last night. Los Cabos San Jose and La Paz airports have functioning runways with temporary air traffic control set up by the Mexican Air Force and The Directorate General of Civil Aeronautics. The only aircraft flying in or out are being coordinated by those two agencies. C-130's and C-295's are flying in humanitarian supplies and flying out tourists. The Mexican Air Force is using every plane they have including their fleet of VIP jets. They hope to have all the tourists out by tomorrow.

Grocery stores are giving food away to those in need. There was some looting on Tuesday but that has been stopped by a combination of the Mexican Marines and Federal Police. Resorts that have functioning generators are acting as relief kitchens, and hundreds of tents have been flown in. The last plan I heard the plan was to set them up on golf courses near resort hotels to ease logistics for feeding and sanitation.

The Mexican Navy has a large amphibious landing ship filled with engineering troops and relief supplies as well as several smaller ships that should either be in Cabo now or arriving shortly. They have experience bringing relief supplies to Haiti after the quake and Cuba after Sandy. From what the Mexican hams have seen, the conditions are tough but they think the government and the Mexican Red Cross (Cruz Roja) are doing as good a job as possible in providing relief. I know the US government has offered military humanitarian assistance and, so far, the Mexicans have turned it down. They believe they have the resources to handle this on their own. That may or may not be true, but we simply can't go sailing in there without a request by the host government.

You can donate to the US Red Cross or Salvation Army and mark your donation for Baja California hurricane relief. The money will be used to buy needed goods and services and both organizations are reasonably trustworthy. Do NOT donate to any agency that claims to be helping in hurricane relief unless you have checked them out at Charity Watch first. There are already scams springing up, especially on Facebook. Do NOT donate money directly to any Mexican government agency or some group claiming to represent the government. These are almost always frauds.

As SJ wrote, the most important thing is to keep posting whatever news that can be found. Some of what I've seen has been wrong or inaccurate but, at this point, I'd rather see something coming out about Baja than nothing. Once all the tourists are gone, this story will fade quickly. :-(
I'm going to ask again from you professionals…can you give me the links to all the good models so i can at least follow what you guys are talking about?