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Odile Nearing the Arizona Border; Polo Nearly a Hurricane; Edouard Weakens to Cat 1

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:27 PM GMT on September 17, 2014

Tropical Storm Odile is being pulled apart by wind shear as it tracks northeast at 6 mph across the northern Gulf of California. At 11 am EDT Wednesday, Odile was still a minimal 40 mph tropical storm, and had advanced within 110 miles of the Arizona border. According to NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks website, only two other named storms since 1949 are recorded to have maintained tropical storm strength in the Gulf of California so close to Arizona--Nora of 1997, and Katrina of 1967. Both were still hurricanes when they made landfall at the northern end of the Gulf of California. Two other named storms, Raymond (1989) and Lester (1992), made landfall in the Gulf of California south of where Odile is, but managed to maintain tropical storm strength all the way into Southeastern Arizona (thanks to wunderground member Webberweather53 for pointing this out.) Satellite loops show that the low-level circulation of Odile is still over water, but nearly all of Odile's heavy thunderstorms and a circulation at mid-levels have moved ashore near the Arizona/Mexico border. Odile will likely become a remnant low Wednesday night. Copious moisture from Odile's circulation brought scattered heavy rains to Southeast Arizona and Southwest New Mexico on Tuesday, with 24-hour rainfall amounts of 0.5 - 1.5" common. Heavy rain will ramp up in intensity significantly on Wednesday evening, though, as the core of Odile's remnants cross the Arizona border. Southeast Arizona and Southwest New Mexico are at the at highest risk of flooding, with rainfall amounts of 3 - 6" likely, and up to 9" may fall in the mountains. A flash flood watch is posted for Phoenix and Tucson in Arizona, and for Las Cruces, New Mexico. Odile's heavy rains come just ten days after moisture from Hurricane Norbert drenched Southern Arizona, bringing Phoenix its heaviest single-day rainfall in recorded history. According the the NWS in Tucson, the arrival of moisture from Odile just ten days after Norbert marks the first time on record that moisture from two tropical storms have brought the state heavy rains in a 10-day span.


Figure 1. Predicted precipitation for the 3-day period 8 am EDT Wednesday - 8 am EDT Saturday, from NOAA's Weather Prediction Center. A large area of 3 - 7 " of rain (orange colors) is expected over Southeast Arizona and Southwest New Mexico.

Tropical Storm Polo brushing Southwest Mexico
The Pacific coast of Mexico has a new hurricane threat to be concerned with--Tropical Storm Polo, which had intensified to 60 mph sustained winds 260 miles SSE of Manzanillo, Mexico at 11 am EDT Wednesday. The models have come into increasing agreement that the core of Polo will stay offshore, but the storm is close enough to the coast that a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of Southwest Mexico. The 11 am EDT Wednesday WInd Probability Forecast from NHC gave Cabo San Lucas on the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula a 22% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds from Polo, and a 1% chance of hurricane-force winds. Those odds were 43% and 1%, respectively, for Manzanillo. Satellite loops show that Polo has plenty of heavy thunderstorms that are steadily growing more organized.


Figure 2. Latest satellite image of Polo.

Edouard weakens to a Category 1 hurricane
After spending just 6 hours at Category 3 strength on Tuesday, Hurricane Edouard, the Atlantic's first major hurricane of the past two years, has steadily weakened to Category 1 status as of Wednesday morning. Edouard is headed northeast over the Central Atlantic, and is not a threat to any land areas. On Thursday, Edouard will encounter colder waters below 26°C (79°F) and wind shear will rise significantly to 30 knots, which should cause rapid weakening, with dissipation likely by Friday night. Satellite images show that Edouard remained well-organized on Wednesday morning with a prominent eye. Edouard was the first Atlantic major hurricane since Hurricane Sandy made landfall over Cuba as a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds on October 25, 2012.


Figure 3. Hurricane Edouard as seen from the International Space Station at approximately 3 pm EDT Tuesday September 16, 2014. At the time, Edouard was a weakening Category 2 storm with top sustained winds of 100 mph. Image credit: Alexander Gerst.

New African tropical wave emerging from Africa
A tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa on Wednesday night is being given some lukewarm support for developing near the Cape Verde Islands by Saturday from our reliable tropical cyclone genesis models. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 0% and 10%, respectively. This wave looks like it will have too much dry air to contend with to become a tropical storm.


Figure 4. MODIS true-color image of a tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa at approximately 8 am EDT September 17, 2014. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters
odile
odile
Strong storm over San Diego Mission Valley Area
Strong storm over San Diego Mission Valley Area

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 491. KoritheMan:

Otis is already in use, dude. Next potential appearance is 2017.

And Otis is a dude's name, btw.

Ottavia
here female name

Odea
Nice looking wave. atm


MargarineHat ‏@SideCG 23s

I want to thank @AlaskaAir for rescuing us from #HurricaneODILE - best airline ever! @ValaryP so glad to be back in USA. Cabo is destroyed


Alaska Airlines seems to be one of the first on the scene really working to get people out. Kudos for coordinating with the Mex Govt to assist.
Quoting 500. Dakster:



How the heck have you been! Haven't seen you around for a bit. Nice clouds.
its winter down there he's been hibernating
Quoting GatorWX:
Nice looking wave. atm


Code orange soon?
Quoting 499. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

oscar


Nope. Already in use in the Atlantic, most recently in 2012.
Quoting 494. TylerStanfield:

Hi.

Is that Fung-Wong? It has a pretty cool name to it.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
here female name

Odea
How about Olly?
kori another one

Olesia
Quoting 499. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

oscar


Nope. It's in use in the Atlantic and will appear again in 2018.

Quoting 510. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

kori another one

Olesia
Yeah that'll work. The replacement has to be female. Not only are Otis and Oscar already in use, they're both masculine names. :P
Quoting 506. Andrebrooks:

Code orange soon?


it has a helper that one
have to see what it does
Quoting KoritheMan:

Yeah that'll work. The replacement has to be female. Not only are Otis and Oscar already in use, they're both masculine names. :P
Olly?
Quoting 499. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

oscar
You have to admit that Otis was always a strong name. No one ever messed with Otis. Nowadays people will name their children anything without consideration.
Oops. I may have posted the same twice because the first one didn't appear. Anyway, good night and see you all tomorrow!
Quoting 505. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

its winter down there he's been hibernating


ROR...

Last I heard he was in the Philippines.
Quoting 513. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



it has a helper that one
have to see what it does


Orange! That's it! Name odile's possible replacement orange! XD Don't take it seriously.
Olive for Odile's replacement :-)
Quoting 517. Dakster:



ROR...

Last I heard he was in the Philippines.
on his winter vacation
Quoting 518. TimTheWxMan:



Orange! That's it! Name odile's possible replacement orange! XD Don't take it seriously.


I meant to quote Andre's comment, not keeper's lol
Hurricane Odile is the most intense hurricane to make landfall in the Baja Peninsula in the satellite era.

HURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
200 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

Satellite data showed that Odile made landfall near Cabo San Lucas
around 0445 UTC. The estimated intensity of 110 kt at landfall
ties Odile with Olivia (1967) as the strongest hurricane to make
landfall in the satellite era in the state of Baja California Sur.

Since landfall, the eye of Odile has filled in conventional
satellite imagery, but the inner-core convection remains strong and
very symmetric. The initial wind speed has been reduced to 100 kt
for this advisory. The hurricane should steadily weaken during
the next few days while the circulation and inner-core continue to
interact with the Baja California peninsula. The latest NHC
forecast is close to the intensity consensus, and is lower than
the previous NHC advisory.
Quoting TimTheWxMan:


Orange! That's it! Name odile's possible replacement orange! XD Don't take it seriously.
Okay, you know the Tropical Weather Outlooks right from the NHC? Well they use the colors low for Code Yellow, Medium for Code Orange and High for Code red, and we here at wunderground uses those terms to describe the 48 hour outlook on a particular area.
How about Ofa for the next O female name?
Quoting 523. Andrebrooks:

Okay, you know the Tropical Weather Outlooks right from the NHC? Well they use the colors low for Code Yellow, Medium for Code Orange and High for Code red, and we here at wunderground uses those terms to describe the 48 hour outlook on a particular area.


Tell me something I don't know (not trying to sound like a smartmouth or anything). I was saying that because there's a discussion on what the name of odile's likely replacement will be. It was for laughs, you know, hee hee, ha ha, ho ho. XD
News reports describe that in Los Cabos area there are long lines at tortilla shops, ice deposits, gas stations -- where tanks can only be filled up to 250 pesos (US$20) each--, while people demand water and toilet paper in stores, and pick-up trucks drive down the streets piled-high with furniture.

When the supermarket chain Mega Comercial Mexicana decided to give people five minutes to come in and take whatever they needed, store employees could not manage the surge of people. Employees tried to maintain order with machetes, baseball bats and rifles as scuffles broke out. The entire store was cleaned out in the melee.

Meanwhile, the state’s Secretary of Tourism announced in a tweet that 5,000 out of the 30,000 tourists have already been been airlifted out of the area, estimating that the rest will be evacuated within the next 48 hours.


Generosity and human survival are at odds right now on the Pen. Geography, and industry (tourism) that supports the area really make this an unprecedented event. Wish I were in a position to do more than go on, ad nausea, about the unfolding events.
Quoting 520. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

on his winter vacation


Glad he didn't run into any MILFs (Moro Islamic Liberation Front) or he may not have gotten back home.
Edouard is maintaining well over sub-26C ocean temperatures, with an evident eye and no signs of extratropical transition. It has contributed 12.2775 units of ACE to the seasonal total, higher than any Atlantic cyclone in 2013.

Police step up security in Los Cabos after Odile...there comes a point when it becomes survival. I have never had to witness this nor do I wish anyone to have to go through this.

"People are running down streets with shopping carts, and you can see the desperation," Madelynn Pase, a 23-year-old Canadian living in Los Cabos, said by phone. "The supermarkets are all empty, so they're going to go to the next best thing."

Pase said people had been walking around at night shining flashlights into residences including hers, and she worried it could be would-be robbers casing potential targets. She spent the previous two nights sleeping on the floor to make it seem like her place was abandoned, and therefore without any food inside.

After hammering the Baja California Peninsula and other parts of northern Mexico in recent days, the remnants of Odile took aim at the U.S. Southwest.


Quoting 525. TimTheWxMan:



Tell me something I don't know (not trying to sound like a smartmouth or anything). I was saying that because there's a discussion on what the name of odile's likely replacement will be. It was for laughs, you know, hee hee, ha ha, ho ho. XD
You have a far more jovial personality than me, Timothy. I'm the cynic and the demoralized... what can we call you?
Quoting 527. Dakster:



Glad he didn't run into any MILFs (Moro Islamic Liberation Front) or he may not have gotten back home.


Hehe.... MILFs. In all seriousness, glad he's ok.
Quoting 510. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

kori another one

Olesia
Osceola. You two were obviously trying to spell it. He was not originally descended from my tribe but we adopted him and he became a leader. Apache mix according to our side of history.
Quoting 530. KoritheMan:


You have a far more jovial personality than me, Timothy. I'm the cynic and the demoralized... what can we call you?



I am batman.
Quoting 528. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Edouard is maintaining well over sub-26C ocean temperatures, with an evident eye and no signs of extratropical transition. It has contributed 12.2775 units of ACE to the seasonal total, higher than any Atlantic cyclone in 2013.


That is impressive. To be expected in a warming planet.

Quoting 531. TimTheWxMan:



Hehe.... MILFs. In all seriousness, glad he's ok.


I am not making the acronym up either...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moro_Islamic_Liberat ion_Front

and they have a web page called MILF Central...


Quoting 533. TimTheWxMan:



I am batman.
Batman doesn't seem all that jovial to me. If anything he would befit me more.
Quoting 535. Dakster:



I am not making the acronym up either...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moro_Islamic_Liberat ion_Front

and they have a web page called MILF Central...


Quoting 535. Dakster:



I am not making the acronym up either...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moro_Islamic_Liberat ion_Front

and they have a web page called MILF Central...




Hehe.... MILF central. I know about that group, but being the mature adult that I am, I couldn't resist pointing out the acronym. XD
Riu seems to be a hot spot for people that are MIA. Think they are all likely safe, but there is a lot of "chatter" about people looking for loved ones that were at Riu.

Quoting 538. KoritheMan:


Batman doesn't seem all that jovial to me. If anything he would befit me more.



I suppose. Someone will come up with a jovial nickname for me. Maybe plain old "comedian".

Quoting 541. TimTheWxMan:



I suppose. Someone will come up with a jovial nickname for me. Maybe plain old "comedian".
You definitely strike me as someone that would be able to readily ease the mood on a dime in an in-person setting.

Who knows, maybe you could even teach me a thing or two about how to do that? I've been trying to improve myself and not take things so serious all the time. I'm already an old man as it is; I don't need to shorten my lifespan!
Quoting 541. TimTheWxMan:



I suppose. Someone will come up with a jovial nickname for me. Maybe plain old "comedian".


The Joker?

Quoting 543. Dakster:



The Joker?
Bingo!
Quoting 542. KoritheMan:


You definitely strike me as someone that would be able to readily ease the mood on a dime in an in-person setting.

Who knows, maybe you could even teach me a thing or two about how to do that? I've been trying to improve myself and not take things so serious all the time. I'm already an old man as it is; I don't need to shorten my lifespan!



Puns don't work. They make everyone who hears mine groan. I think of funny things to say on a whim.
Quoting 493. nwobilderburg:



do you know where you can find data like this for different cities


I found it on the El Paso NWS office page. I think you have to go to each forecast office to find local records like that.
Response to the nonsense New York Post article making the rounds with actual statements from actual climate scientists. Link
Quoting 545. TimTheWxMan:



Puns don't work. They make everyone who hears mine groan. I think of funny things to say on a whim.


OK. Tim The Weatherman Taylor...


Quoting 545. TimTheWxMan:



Puns don't work. They make everyone who hears mine groan. I think of funny things to say on a whim.
Spontaneous levity is exactly what I suck at doing, lmao.

But I'm getting better. It's a skill.
El Paso is now at tied their 33rd heaviest rain in 24 hours, after 2 hours. They are having a break now. More heavy rain moving their way from the west. 1.6" is required to make a new #2, and 4.78" more to make a new #1.
Quoting 548. Dakster:



OK. Tim The Weatherman Taylor...




Yes!
Quoting 549. KoritheMan:


Spontaneous levity is exactly what I suck at doing, lmao.

But I'm getting better. It's a skill.



I'm a generally laid-back person. I don't sweat the small stuff and when someone messes up something of mine (like showing up a little late), I tell them not to sweat it because stuff happens and we all make mistakes. Doesn't mean I'm never in a bad mood or it doesn't mean I'm never stressed out, but laughing several times a day is good for you.
KOTG - I thought we were safe from this, but apparently not.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/09/17/health/enterovirus- outbreak/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

Quoting 543. Dakster:



The Joker?


The Joker? I'm no sadistic, murdering psychopath! Though heath ledger did bring a little dark comedy to his character.

Quoting 553. TimTheWxMan:



I'm a generally laid-back person. I don't sweat the small stuff and when someone messes up something of mine (like showing up a little late), I tell them not to sweat it because stuff happens and we all make mistakes. Doesn't mean I'm never in a bad mood or it doesn't mean I'm never stressed out, but laughing several times a day is good for you.
I spent years of my life isolated from any social interaction (hooray for poor homeschooling and sheltering parents!). I started coming out of my shell when I got my Walmart job three years ago, but it wasn't until very recently that I started trying to let loose more often.

Besides, nobody likes worrywarts anyway! :)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Edouard is maintaining well over sub-26C ocean temperatures, with an evident eye and no signs of extratropical transition. It has contributed 12.2775 units of ACE to the seasonal total, higher than any Atlantic cyclone in 2013.



Holding to my call for it making it all the way to the Azores outer isles before going post-tropical.
Quoting Dakster:
KOTG - I thought we were safe from this, but apparently not.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/09/17/health/enterovirus- outbreak/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

Enterovirus is everywhere. It's just rarely tested for because the symptoms are so similar to the common cold, and the treatment is basically the same. In your case, with a compromised immune system, it's more likely that you'd get it. Just wash your hands a lot and avoid crowds. That should be easy once you get your 16 feet of snow. :-) Still hot and dry here with no chance of rain for the next five days, All this tropical moisture in the Gulf and we didn't get squat from it.


For all of my Austin/Central Texas people, STAY OFF THE ROADS TONIGHT!!!
Quoting StormJunkie:
Riu seems to be a hot spot for people that are MIA. Think they are all likely safe, but there is a lot of "chatter" about people looking for loved ones that were at Riu.

According to the Hurricane Net, American citizens are NOT being encouraged to get to the airports on their own. There are no regular flights, and all the logistics are being handled by the Mexican Air Force and Civil Protection. They are transporting people on busses and Army trucks. All their informations is being recorded and passed on the the US Embassy in Mexico City. People who go to the airport on their own are going to the end of the line since the authorities don't know they are there.

I've read a lot of complaining from American tourists on twitter. Things are tough. It's hot and there's no electricity for A/C. They are being provided with water and adequate food. They have a have a home to go back to. The Mexicans have already flown about 10,000 tourists out and the last estimate I heard was that they have about 13,000 to go. The goal is move everyone that wants to go by Friday. The Mexicans seem to be doing as a good a job as anyone could under the circumstances, and it would be nice if people showed a little more gratitude for a free ride out of a disaster area. The Mexican citizens are, in many cases, much worse off, and they have to stay behind and try to rebuild.

As a final point, all those tourists were there because they took a gamble. Prices are way cheaper during hurricane season. I know, I've done it several times, and it has worked out for me each time. This time, it didn't work out, but they knew, or should have known, that this outcome was possible. If you want full resort treatment and regular airline flights, pay the money for the high season rate, when you don't have to take a chance about being hit by a hurricane.
Quoting sar2401:
According to the Hurricane Net, American citizens are NOT being encouraged to get to the airports on their own. There are no regular flights, and all the logistics are being handled by the Mexican Air Force and Civil Protection. They are transporting people on busses and Army trucks. All their informations is being recorded and passed on the the US Embassy in Mexico City. People who go to the airport on their own are going to the end of the line since the authorities don't know they are there.

I've read a lot of complaining from American tourists on twitter. Things are tough. It's hot and there's no electricity for A/C. They are being provided with water and adequate food. They have a have a home to go back to. The Mexicans have already flown about 10,000 tourists out and the last estimate I heard was that they have about 13,000 to go. The goal is move everyone that wants to go by Friday. The Mexicans seem to be doing as a good a job as anyone could under the circumstances, and it would be nice if people showed a little more gratitude for a free ride out of a disaster area. The Mexican citizens are, in many cases, much worse off, and they have to stay behind and try to rebuild.

As a final point, all those tourists were there because they took a gamble. Prices are way cheaper during hurricane season. I know, I've done it several times, and it has worked out for me each time. This time, it didn't work out, but they knew, or should have known, that this outcome was possible. If you want full resort treatment and regular airline flights, pay the money for the high season rate, when you don't have to take a chance about being hit by a hurricane.
NC stay alert this coming weekend........................................... .............
6Z GFS has it also going up the coastline......................................... .....
love that its 3am and lightly raining here...northern ca
Quoting 542. KoritheMan:


You definitely strike me as someone that would be able to readily ease the mood on a dime in an in-person setting.

Who knows, maybe you could even teach me a thing or two about how to do that? I've been trying to improve myself and not take things so serious all the time. I'm already an old man as it is; I don't need to shorten my lifespan!



learning to laugh at yourself makes things so much easier...so i really try to make an ass of myself often :) theres already way too many grumpy old men
Quoting 524. Dakster:

How about Ofa for the next O female name?

oceanna...yay i am the only one on here
Any Florida east coast surfers: The forecast indicates conditions from Ponce Inlet to New Smyrna are going to be exceptional today.

Surfers from Georgia to Virginia/Maryland: Watch the surf forecasts through this time next week. In-shore surf height might be up to 6 feet. Open-ocean waves not far from shore (200 - 300 miles) are forecast to be in the 12-15 foot range early next week.

Is there a system other than Edouard that might account for this?  I ask that because we had big, perfect surf yesterday at Ponce Inlet: 5 foot, with off-shore breeze. Today's forecast is 3.0 - 3.5, dropping back to near-normal small surf by tomorrow and pretty much staying there through next week, so we're not getting much of a long-lasting swell from Edouard.

(See surf-forecast.com dynamic wave height forecast for a nice animation of the forecast.)
Good morning and afternoon, everyone. Went down to Lake Charles, LA last night with a friend to visit another friend in the hospital. Then went to a seafood restaurant. I have lunch for today as there was no way I could eat all they had on my plate.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Andouille sausage and shrimp scramble, creamed chipped beef over biscuits, Breakfast Grain Salad with Blueberries, Hazelnuts & Lemon, cranberry coffee cake, Apple pie bites (apple slice wrapped in a croissant), mushroom, broccoli & cheddar omelet, cheese danishes, Tea, Regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!
Sounds like a forecast error. Yesterday (Wednesday) was the day. Today some residual swell left. This morning would be the call. Next week could have promise if something forms off SE coast.


Quoting 569. EdwardinAlaska:

Any Florida east coast surfers: The forecast indicates conditions from Ponce Inlet to New Smyrna are going to be exceptional today.

Surfers from Georgia to Virginia/Maryland: Watch the surf forecasts through this time next week. In-shore surf height might be up to 6 feet. Open-ocean waves not far from shore (200 - 300 miles) are forecast to be in the 12-15 foot range early next week.

Is there a system other than Edouard that might account for this?  I ask that because we had big, perfect surf yesterday at Ponce Inlet: 5 foot, with off-shore breeze. Today's forecast is 3.0 - 3.5, dropping back to near-normal small surf by tomorrow and pretty much staying there through next week, so we're not getting much of a long-lasting swell from Edouard.

(See surf-forecast.com dynamic wave height forecast for a nice animation of the forecast.)

EMNANTS OF ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD EP152014
200 AM MST THU SEP 18 2014

...REMNANT CIRCULATION OF ODILE IS MOVING ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA WHILE HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA...SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.5N 110.0W
ABOUT 25 MILES...40 KM...W OF DOUGLAS BISBEE ARIZONA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...40 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 83 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA...THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF NEW MEXICO...AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN TEXAS.

FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF ODILE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 110.0 WEST. THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF ODILE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADARS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED RAIN FALLING PRIMARILY EAST OF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA...SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO...AND WESTERN TEXAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WAS REPORTED
AT TIMES. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
LATER THIS MORNING AS IT INTERACTS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID AND
UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION. HEAVY RAINS WILL REACH EASTERN NEW
MEXICO BY LATER TODAY AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH...40 KM/H...WITH GUSTS TO
10 MPH...20 KM/H..

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS
-------
RAINFALL...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED TOTALS OF 6 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA...SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO...EXTREME WESTERN TEXAS AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO TAKE ALL NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO
MITIGATE THESE POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING SITUATIONS.


RAINFALL TOTALS
---------------
SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 2 AM MST

...ARIZONA...
CLUFF RANCH 3.15
NOGALES INTL ARPT 2.66
FORT HUACHUCA 2.33
DAVIDSON CANYON AT I-10 2.09
FALCON FIELD 2.01
ITALIAN TRAP (REDINGTON PASS) 1.93
FRYE MESA RESERVOIR 1.77
DAN SADDLE (UPPER CDO) 1.65
SAFFORD MUNI ARPT 1.44
DOUGLAS BISBEE INTL ARPT 1.38

...NEW MEXICO...
MOGOLLON 3 WSW 4.06
CHAPARRAL 0.4 SE 3.50
BONITO LAKE 6 WSW 3.10
SAN ANTONIO 25.6 SSW 3.06
BOSQUE DEL APACHE REFUGE 19 SW 3.06
LA JOYA 2 WNW 2.15
DEMING MUNI ARPT 2.11
CAPITAN 2 SW 2.00
DATIL 11 NNE 1.56
SOCORRO 2 S 1.43
LAS CRUCES INTL ARPT 1.36
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES MUNI ARPT 1.09

...TEXAS...
EL PASO INTL ARPT 2.47
LUBBOCK INTL ARPT 1.17
surf was pumping yesterday before dark perfect conditions overhead sets lots of rides its been a few yrs since ive seen it as good as it was yesterday afternoon. e cen florida
Quoting 558. lat25five:



Holding to my call for it making it all the way to the Azores outer isles before going post-tropical.




Good luck.


It has begun..
It was great by me too. I was solo for 5 hours. Cancelled some appts so I could stay in the water. Head high+ and glass. Some closing out, but great ones to be had. Mainly lefts as I was surfing a SE facing beach on the NC/SC border. Straight E facing beaches were probably closing out unless you had something to tuck in behind.

Quoting 573. islander101010:

surf was pumping yesterday before dark perfect conditions overhead sets lots of rides its been a few yrs since ive seen it as good as it was yesterday afternoon. e cen florida
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Edouard, located about 900 miles west of the western Azores.

A tropical wave, accompanied by a broad low pressure system, is
located just off of the west coast of Africa. Although shower and
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized, environmental conditions
are expected to be at least marginally conducive for some gradual
development of this system over the next several days while it moves
slowly west-northwestward to northwestward over the far eastern
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
579. beell
With the upper short wave trough over the east coast, a cold-core disturbance from sub-tropical beginnings at best.



Quoting 534. GTstormChaserCaleb:

That is impressive. To be expected in a warming planet.



Not really, this is to be expected in an El Nino hurricane season, we've seen a lot better anyway in that area of the Atlantic...

Debby (1982) Category 3 up to latitude of Nova Scotia,


Faith (1966) Remained a category 2 hurricane all the way up to Great Britain & Iceland...


Four (1971) Hurricane up to near the southern coast of Greenland...


Ellen (1973) Major Hurricane up to near 45N...


Fran (1973) Remained a hurricane to within about 5 degrees of France...


Ella (1978) Category 4 up to Nova Scotia's latitude


Helene (1988) Hurricane thru about 55N...
AL, 95, 2014091806, , BEST, 0, 107N, 180W, 20, 1009, LO
Quoting Webberweather53:

Not really, this is to be expected in an El Nino hurricane season, we've seen a lot better anyway in that area of the Atlantic...

Debby (1982) Category 3 up to latitude of Nova Scotia,


Faith (1966) Remained a category 2 hurricane all the way up to Great Britain & Iceland...


Four (1971) Hurricane up to near the southern coast of Greenland...


Ellen (1973) Major Hurricane up to near 45N...


Fran (1973) Remained a hurricane to within about 5 degrees of France...


Ella (1978) Category 4 up to Nova Scotia's latitude


Helene (1988) Hurricane thru about 55N...


Not quite as high in latitude as the other ones, but it was epic to watch all the same.



We now have 95L
This is interesting. The 00z ECMWF is showing a large area of low pressure developing in the Gulf of Mexico by 216-240 hours. Nothing quite consolidated enough to be called a cyclone, obviously, but it's interesting to note as the GFS has been rather consistent by 8-10 days at developing a tropical cyclone in the Gulf. Granted, it's all out in fantasy land, but it's something to look out for.


Quoting 584. CybrTeddy:

This is interesting. The 00z ECMWF is showing a large area of low pressure developing in the Gulf of Mexico by 216-240 hours. Nothing quite consolidated enough to be called a cyclone, obviously, but it's interesting to note as the GFS has been rather consistent by 8-10 days at developing a tropical cyclone in the Gulf. Granted, it's all out in fantasy land, but it's something to look out for.




Generally anything after 5 days is deemed as inaccurate. There's really no point in looking at that. You are just wasting your time.
Anyone know (assuming 95L pulls the miraculous and develops) the latest a CV type storm has developed and hit North America?

I know the 1938 hurricane was already well on its way, since it made landfall on the 21st. I suspect with deeper troughs later into Autumn, the odds anything gets close are near nil, and waves that don't develop until the Caribbean/parts of the East Pac monsoon trough extending into the Caribbean and near coastal developments (like a Bahama Mama) are the only realistic shots at North American landfall.
Quoting 555. TimTheWxMan:



The Joker? I'm no sadistic, murdering psychopath! Though heath ledger did bring a little dark comedy to his character.

I am so glad you got a membership at this blog. You are one of the best posters here!!
Quoting 586. EdMahmoud:

Anyone know (assuming 95L pulls the miraculous and develops) the latest a CV type storm has developed and hit North America?

I know the 1938 hurricane was already well on its way, since it made landfall on the 21st. I suspect with deeper troughs later into Autumn, the odds anything gets close are near nil, and waves that don't develop until the Caribbean/parts of the East Pac monsoon trough extending into the Caribbean and near coastal developments (like a Bahama Mama) are the only realistic shots at North American landfall.


Mr. Mohammed. The answer is Andrew.
Quoting 588. CumberlandPlateau:


Mr. Mohammed. The answer is Andrew.


Andrew made landfall in August...
Betsy, 1965

From a mature blogger's memory.

: P

The Current Pacific warm anomalies are higher now, than during any El Nino event in the past.

Food fer thought.
Quoting 585. CumberlandPlateau:


Generally anything after 5 days is deemed as inaccurate. There's really no point in looking at that. You are just wasting your time.


Beyond 5 days is deemed inaccurate for exact storm systems formation but not for general pattern tendencies. Teddy made a very good point on the models' long-range forecasts.
Low pressure starting to form off the eastcoast of Fl?

Quoting 593. Sfloridacat5:

Low pressure starting to form off the eastcoast of Fl?


supposed to be a Low crossing florida out into the atlantic tomorrow..nws says ...and local met says a 70% chance of rain and some storms tomorrow...we'll see...hope its not like yesterday around here..whew..just went to the park walking my dog..the lake went up 4-5 feet which has since drained down to a normal level....
Quoting 582. CybrTeddy:



Not quite as high in latitude as the other ones, but it was epic to watch all the same.






Yeah, I'll admit, Ophelia was impressive, but it doesn't hold a candle to those storms in terms of maintaing their intensity so far to the north & east in the Atlantic. You can also throw in Gloria (1975) category 4 hurricane up to the latitude of Long Island, NY..
06Z NAM develops the low right off the eastcoast of Florida where a weak circulation is already starting.

GFS develops the low later in the time period and further up the coast.


Quoting 571. HaoleboySurfEC:

Sounds like a forecast error. Yesterday (Wednesday) was the day. Today some residual swell left. This morning would be the call. Next week could have promise if something forms off SE coast.



They've been nailing the forecasts this summer.
Here's a couple photos from this morning in Ormond by the Sea. First, a clean set. Breeze was offshore.


Here's a guy who was surfing the sunrise swell. Sorry the photo's not clearer, but I had to zoom the camera and, of course, there was backlighting from the sun that had just risen. This is to give you an idea of wave size for some of the sets. Every now and then a much larger set would come in, but I'd guess most were 2.5 - 3.5 feet.



Wish I had time to get down to Ponce Inlet today. We might go down and fish there after work. Yesterday evening it was pretty big (for Florida) and very clean. One of my buddies who surfs said he figured it for about 5 feet.

/end of report
Quoting 590. Patrap:

Betsy, 1965

From a mature blogger's memory.

: P




I'll see your Betsy (Sep 12), and raise you Ivan (Sep 24), although many less well known storms may have been later.


Quoting 601. yonzabam:



I'll see your Betsy (Sep 12), and raise you Ivan (Sep 24), although many less well known storms may have been later.





Ivan and Jeanne, loopy 2004 siblings
in 10 days,GFS has this every run now.............................................. ...............................
Quoting 586. EdMahmoud:

Anyone know (assuming 95L pulls the miraculous and develops) the latest a CV type storm has developed and hit North America?

I know the 1938 hurricane was already well on its way, since it made landfall on the 21st. I suspect with deeper troughs later into Autumn, the odds anything gets close are near nil, and waves that don't develop until the Caribbean/parts of the East Pac monsoon trough extending into the Caribbean and near coastal developments (like a Bahama Mama) are the only realistic shots at North American landfall.



Hugo and Georges were late September, I think Hazel was a remnant of an African wave but developed in the Caribbean.

Edit: Hurricane Hugo landfall on SC was 21 Sept 89
Hurricane Gloria landfall on NC was 27 September 85
Hurricane Georges landfall on FL was 25 September 98, MS on 29 Sept.
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL952014 09/18/14 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 32 38 43 48 51 52 54 52 50
V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 32 38 43 48 51 52 54 52 50
V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 26 30 33 36 39 41 42 41 40
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 5 7 5 8 8 10 10 9 13 15 15 15 17
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 1 0 0 5 2 1 3 0 3 3 1
SHEAR DIR 69 39 336 326 314 287 290 270 261 244 234 236 250
SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.4
POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 132 132 132 131 134 135 137 136 135 130 127
ADJ. POT. INT. 128 129 129 130 130 128 131 131 133 132 130 123 120
200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 -54.3 -54.1 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 7
700-500 MB RH 78 77 76 74 72 69 66 64 62 64 59 58 53
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 9 9 10 10 9 9 10 10 13 12 10
850 MB ENV VOR 54 61 59 46 43 35 34 41 41 52 25 24 4
200 MB DIV 36 24 19 10 12 7 44 0 -14 4 -10 10 2
700-850 TADV 0 -4 -3 -4 -3 -4 -6 -5 0 0 -4 -1 1
LAND (KM) 211 264 332 409 493 670 849 1041 1254 1466 1656 1824 1938
LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.9 11.0 11.3 11.6 12.2 12.8 13.1 13.1 13.2 13.4 13.7 14.1
LONG(DEG W) 18.0 18.8 19.6 20.4 21.3 23.1 25.1 27.0 29.0 31.0 32.8 34.4 35.5
STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 9 10 9 8 6 6
HEAT CONTENT 7 5 4 4 4 7 6 8 13 17 20 17 13

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=624)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
-------------------------------------------------- --------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 18. 24. 28. 31. 33. 35.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 1. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
-------------------------------------------------- --------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 18. 23. 28. 31. 32. 34. 32. 31.

** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952014 INVEST 09/18/14 12 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%)

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952014 INVEST 09/18/2014 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
Quoting 599. EdwardinAlaska:


They've been nailing the forecasts this summer.
Here's a couple photos from this morning in Ormond by the Sea. First, a clean set. Breeze was offshore.


Here's a guy who was surfing the sunrise swell. Sorry the photo's not clearer, but I had to zoom the camera and, of course, there was backlighting from the sun that had just risen. This is to give you an idea of wave size for some of the sets. Every now and then a much larger set would come in, but I'd guess most were 2.5 - 3.5 feet.



Wish I had time to get down to Ponce Inlet today. We might go down and fish there after work. Yesterday evening it was pretty big (for Florida) and very clean. One of my buddies who surfs said he figured it for about 5 feet.

/end of report

Nice sets, but sharks feed in the morning and evening. Some get bit by a 3 footer and bleed to death as they drown. Best to wait till 9:30 or 10:00.
Quoting 589. EdMahmoud:



Andrew made landfall in August...

Exactly. So that counts.
Quoting 592. Astrometeor:



Beyond 5 days is deemed inaccurate for exact storm systems formation but not for general pattern tendencies. Teddy made a very good point on the models' long-range forecasts.

Pattern tendencies, yes, I agree with. But then no pointing out potential storms. That is just wasting your time. I know Teddy isn't in to that. Why would he do it that time?
Quoting 599. EdwardinAlaska:


They've been nailing the forecasts this summer.
Here's a couple photos from this morning in Ormond by the Sea. First, a clean set. Breeze was offshore.


Here's a guy who was surfing the sunrise swell. Sorry the photo's not clearer, but I had to zoom the camera and, of course, there was backlighting from the sun that had just risen. This is to give you an idea of wave size for some of the sets. Every now and then a much larger set would come in, but I'd guess most were 2.5 - 3.5 feet.



Wish I had time to get down to Ponce Inlet today. We might go down and fish there after work. Yesterday evening it was pretty big (for Florida) and very clean. One of my buddies who surfs said he figured it for about 5 feet.

/end of report


Beautiful pictures!!
Quoting 605. win1gamegiantsplease:



Hugo and Georges were late September, I think Hazel was a remnant of an African wave but developed in the Caribbean.

Edit: Hurricane Hugo landfall on SC was 21 Sept 89
Hurricane Gloria landfall on NC was 27 September 85
Hurricane Georges landfall on FL was 25 September 98, MS on 29 Sept.


Wouldn't you want them to win them all?
Quoting 534. GTstormChaserCaleb:

That is impressive. To be expected in a warming planet.




Edouard is in no way unusual, in fact, here's a list of 59 storms that were hurricanes north of 40N & east of 45W generally near & northeast of Edouard's location...
Chris (2012)
Bertha (2008)
Florence (2006)
Alex (2004)
Karl (2004)
Lisa (2004)
Fabian (2003)
Alberto (2000)
Ivan (1998)
Jeanne (1998)
Karl (1998)
Lisa (1998)
Nicole (1998)
Lili (1996)
Florence (1994)
Floyd (1993)
Josephine (1990)
Erin (1989)
Helene (1988)
Arlene (1987)
Emily (1987)
Debby (1982)
Irene (1981)
Bonnie (1980)
Earl (1980)
Frances (1980)
Ivan (1980)
Karl (1980)
Gloria (1979)
Flossie (1978)
Candice (1976)
Emmy (1976)
Doris (1975)
Faye (1975)
Becky (1974)
Ellen (1973)
Fran (1973)
Betty (1972)
Four (1971)
Debbie (1969)
Kara (1969)
Dolly (1968)
Chloe (1967)
Dorothy (1966)
Faith (1966)
Lois (1966)
Ana (1965)
Carol (1965)
Elena (1965)
Ethel (1964)
Betsy (1961)
Debbie (1961)
Hannah (1959)
Cleo (1958)
Janice (1958)
Carrie (1957)
Eight (1954)
Fox (1951)
Jig (1950)

& if you actually looked at the data, it shows (w/ a five yr running mean to have an overall better sense of long-term trends) the frequency of hurricanes north & east of 40N & 45W (near & NE of where Edouard is currently located, it has actually been decreasing, even w/ the advent of satellite detection.. Given the significant rise in global temperatures since 1950, storms like Edouard really aren't "expected" in a warming world...
614. JRRP
700-500 MB RH 78 77 76 74 72 69 66 64 62 64 59 58 53
Quoting 604. LargoFl:

in 10 days,GFS has this every run now.............................................. ...............................


They have been hunting at something potentially brewing in the lower GOM/W Caribbean that moves northward. It's been fluctuating in intensity and landfall from a TS to blob from FL to LA
I'd say same size, maybe a little bigger and clean yesterday SC/NC border. Long lines, quick to close out. Got a little better as tide filled in.

It was only about chest to shoulder high on set early morning. Tide started filling in and about 10AM a freak 12 wave set of 8'+ faces came through. Even the fishermen on the pier were hooting. After that it was solid head high on set until I split at 12:30.

Oh, and the sharkys were everywhere. Saw someone pull a 3-4 footer up and then lose it before they got it on the pier.

Cherry Grove, SC pier. Believe it holds the record for largest Tiger shark ever caught from shore (1950's).

Quoting 607. Pallis1:

Nice sets, but sharks feed in the morning and evening. Some get bit by a 3 footer and bleed to death as they drown. Best to wait till 9:30 or 10:00.
Quoting 613. Webberweather53:



Edouard is in no way unusual, in fact, I here's a list of 59 storms that were hurricanes north of 40N & east of 45W generally near & northeast of Edouard's location...
if you actually looked at the data, it shows (w/ a five yr running mean to have an overall better sense of long-term trends) the frequency of hurricanes north & east of 40N & 45W (near & NE of where Edouard is currently located, it has actually been decreasing, even w/ the advent of satellite detection.. Given the significant rise in global temperatures since 1950, storms like Edouard really aren't "expected" in a warming world...



+1...

Here's the map of storms passing within 100nm of Edouard's current location, and he's hardly one of the strongest to pass through the region.

Quoting 626. Levi32:



+1...

Here's the map of storms passing within 100nm of Edouard's current location, and he's hardly one of the strongest to pass through the region.



Levi. The GFS has been sniffing something out in the Northern Gulf in 10 days. Win 1 Game Giants Please has been on to it. What do you think. Is this something to worry about???
Quoting 604. LargoFl:

in 10 days,GFS has this every run now.............................................. ...............................


They have been hunting at something potentially brewing in the lower GOM/W Caribbean that moves northward. It's been fluctuating in intensity and landfall from a TS to blob from FL to LA
Quoting win1gamegiantsplease:


They have been hunting at something potentially brewing in the lower GOM/W Caribbean that moves northward. It's been fluctuating in intensity and landfall from a TS to blob from FL to LA


Yeah, for 2 weeks its been showing a GOM system at the end of its run (300 hour time frame). Every day it keeps backing up the time frame.

What Largo showed is a little earlier in the 240 hour time frame. We'll have to see if it gets moved up (time frame) with future runs.

But at least it does show a different pattern has set up across the Caribbean and GOM. If something does form down in the Caribbean it should be pulled north into the GOM.
Quoting 628. win1gamegiantsplease:



They have been hunting at something potentially brewing in the lower GOM/W Caribbean that moves northward. It's been fluctuating in intensity and landfall from a TS to blob from FL to LA

What do you think. Could it have the potential to be another Katrina. I mean the GOM waters are cooling down so the chances of a category 5 are slowly diminishing.

Quoting 607. Pallis1:

Nice sets, but sharks feed in the morning and evening. Some get bit by a 3 footer and bleed to death as they drown. Best to wait till 9:30 or 10:00.
That might be the case in some places, but in Florida the shark attacks seem to actually be most common between 11:00 a.m. and 5:00 p.m.
Here's a link you might find interesting for statistical distribution of shark attacks by time of day.

The county where I live (Volusia) is the leader in shark attacks, but I can't recall ever hearing of anyone die in this county from a shark attack, either from blood loss or drowning after being attacked.

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
749 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

...VALID 12Z THU SEP 18 2014 - 12Z FRI SEP 19 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 NNE AEG SAF 40 NE LVS 40 SW DHT 30 WNW CDS 60 N ABI 55 W RPH
10 S INJ 45 WSW JAS 15 N KVBS 20 ENE KXIH 15 N KGVX 30 NW KMZG
45 WSW VCT 20 NNE E29 40 NNE 6R6 35 SW 6R6 70 SW 6R6 75 S E38
40 WSW MRF 50 SE MMCS 65 SW MMCS 65 SSE DUG 55 SSE OLS
30 ENE DMA 45 NNW SAD 35 SE SJN 35 WSW AEG 15 WSW AEG 10 NNE AEG.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
75 S DMN 35 SE DUG 10 N DUG 25 S SAD 55 NE SAD 65 NNW TCS
25 SW 4MY 15 ENE CQC 20 N CVS 15 NNW CVN 15 NNE PVW 35 SW CDS
45 NNW DYS 40 SSW SWW 25 SE MDD 10 E INK MMCS 75 S DMN.

HIGH RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 NW SVC 45 ENE TCS 25 NNW 4CR 65 ENE 4CR 35 SSW CVS
40 ENE ATS 20 SW CNM 20 NNW ELP 40 SW LRU 65 S DMN 55 ESE DUG
35 ESE DUG 55 NE DUG 35 ESE SAD 35 NW SVC.


AZ/NM/CENTRAL TX
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A LARGE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AREA REMAINS FROM SOUTHEAST AZ THROUGH
SOUTHERN NM AND A BELT OF CENTRAL TX IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
REMAINS OF ODILE, WITH A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
CONTINUING FOR SOUTHERN NM. THE 1/3/6 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO LOWER OVER THIS REGION WITH THE CONTINUED WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF LONG DURATION FLOODING
REMAINS A CONCERN...THE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS PW AVAILABILITY (3-3.5
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL) AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL/HIGH
AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS (1-3.5 INCHES) WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THE
FFG AND ELEVATE THE FLASH FLOODING RISK. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT
INSTABILITY SHOULD BUILD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN TX
ALONG WITH ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MEXICO DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING WITHIN A PARTLY CLOUDY REGION -- RECENT RAP RUNS INDICATE
CAPE VALUES RISE INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS TX AND
SOUTHEAST NM BY THIS AFTERNOON. PER COORDINATION WITH THE SJT/SAN
ANGELO TX FORECAST OFFICE, CONSTRICTED THE MODERATE RISK A BIT
ACROSS CENTRAL TX.


EASTERN TX/SOUTHWEST LA
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
AT PRESENT, THE INSTABILITY LINGERS ACROSS EASTERN TX, WITH
LOW-LEVEL INFLOW SLOWLY FADING. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT
INSTABILITY SHOULD BUILD ACROSS PORTIONS OF TX ALONG WITH ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MEXICO DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WITHIN A PARTLY
CLOUDY REGION -- RECENT RAP RUNS INDICATE CAPE VALUES RISE INTO
THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS TX AND SOUTHEAST NM BY THIS
AFTERNOON. PER COORDINATION WITH THE SJT/SAN ANGELO TX FORECAST
OFFICE, CONSTRICTED THE MODERATE RISK A BIT ACROSS CENTRAL TX.
THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL SCATTER-SHOT WITHIN A TRIANGLE BOUNDED BY EXTREME
SOUTHWEST LA, THE MIDDLE TX COAST, AND THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE TX
HILL COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TODAY WITHIN AN AREA OF >2"
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. LOCAL
AMOUNTS OF 4-8" ARE ADVERTISED IN THIS REGION, SO KEPT SOUTHEAST
TX AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST LA WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK.


KS/OK/RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE SOUTH
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION HAS BECOME FORWARD PROPAGATING BEHIND
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST OK AS LOW-LEVEL INFLOW
WEAKENS. THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE MOVING INTO AREAS WHERE IT
HAS NOT RAINED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF GREATER
PROGRESSION AND HIGHER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE WITHIN THE
PRECIPITATION AREA'S PATH LED TO A DOWNGRADING OF THE AREA FROM A
SLIGHT RISK TO A "SEE TEXT" HIGHLIGHT.


ROTH/HURLEY
Quoting 627. CumberlandPlateau:


Levi. The GFS has been sniffing something out in the Northern Gulf in 10 days. Win 1 Game Giants Please has been on to it. What do you think. Is this something to worry about???


The GFS has had a storm in the gulf at Days 10-15 for essentially a month straight. It's in its own little world most of the time with storms in that area. Once you see a storm show up there at Day 7-8 on the model, then it might be something to watch for.
Quoting 642. Levi32:



The GFS has had a storm in the gulf at Days 10-15 for essentially a month straight. It's in its own little world most of the time with storms in that area. Once you see a storm show up there at Day 7-8 on the model, then it might be something to watch for.

Okay. Thanks for the explanation. We'll keep an eye on it.
Quoting 626. Levi32:



1...

Here's the map of storms passing within 100nm of Edouard's current location, and he's hardly one of the strongest to pass through the region.




Yep, completely agree. There is actually a category 3 in there that passed well northeast of Edouard's location...
Delurking for a bit....

Very interested in that GFS model reading insisting on a possible strong TS/Cat1 hurricane coming up from the Yucatan and possibly slapping NOLA/SE LA or MS at the turn of the month (Isadore 2002-like, perhaps??) Last few models had it going straight up NOLA into central MS, but 06z now has it doing an initial deke towards NOLA before deflecting NE into MS/Mobile Bay, then turning E across southern AL/GA into the Atlantic...then turning SE????

No sign of a huge trough or any strong westerlies, so what is it that's expected to draw this potential storm northward and then deflect it NE/E?

And, no support for that scenario from the Euro or the "Crackheaded" CMC?? AFAIK, they want to place the system closer to FL than LA.

Such a system would be just to the east of my neck of the woods (South Central LA), so we wouldn't get much. NOLA and eastward, OTOH?? Pretty wet and windy, I'd think.

BTW....always been watching, just picking my spots to comment.

(Understanding, of course, Levi's caveat that this is waaaaay down the road (as in 10-15 days out), and may be just another false alarm. Beyond 5-7 days, everything is essentially a crapshoot.)
646. myway
Quoting 631. EdwardinAlaska:

That might be the case in some places, but in Florida the shark attacks seem to actually be most common between 11:00 a.m. and 5:00 p.m.
Here's a link you might find interesting for statistical distribution of shark attacks by time of day.

The county where I live (Volusia) is the leader in shark attacks, but I can't recall ever hearing of anyone die in this county from a shark attack, either from blood loss or drowning after being attacked.



More people in the water during that time.
Quoting CumberlandPlateau:

Generally anything after 5 days is deemed as inaccurate. There's really no point in looking at that. You are just wasting your time.


I did note the "fantasy land" aspect of it. It's just something to watch out for over the course of the next week if the Euro begins to catch on to this solution. The GFS, as one would expect, is off its rocker with a hurricane in the Gulf in the long range, so I don't give any credence to that solution, just that might be hinting at some mischief towards the end of the month. Also a good possibility it'll be something in the EPAC instead of the western Caribbean/BoC.
Quoting 631. EdwardinAlaska:


That might be the case in some places, but in Florida the shark attacks seem to actually be most common between 11:00 a.m. and 5:00 p.m.
Here's a link you might find interesting for statistical distribution of shark attacks by time of day.

The county where I live (Volusia) is the leader in shark attacks, but I can't recall ever hearing of anyone die in this county from a shark attack, either from blood loss or drowning after being attacked.




I am confused Edward in Volusia.. :) We've only had a dozen or so deaths in Florida.. Stephan Schafer died here in Stuart 2010. Kite boarder, fell, got bit by a bullshark in the buttocks. Lifeguard saw the distress and went out to him.. through a circling pack of sharks and tried to bring them in above the kite to stave off new attacks. Stephan bled out. The Lifeguard had been bitten twenty years back, so it took a measure of courage to try and save Stephan. In the emergency room, some medical students pulled out their camera phones and posted pictures of his dead body.. none of them will ever be Doctors in Florida.
Yesterday, periods of very heavy rain, no thunder, now, heavy rain, and frequent CG lightning. And it will get my lawn.

Quoting 605. win1gamegiantsplease:



Hugo and Georges were late September, I think Hazel was a remnant of an African wave but developed in the Caribbean.

Edit: Hurricane Hugo landfall on SC was 21 Sept 89
Hurricane Gloria landfall on NC was 27 September 85
Hurricane Georges landfall on FL was 25 September 98, MS on 29 Sept.



Close of Georges and Gloria to the timing of 95L, I suppose. No way Hugo was were 95L is now 4 days before landfall.
we have invest 95L
I'm talking true CV storms, not storms developing in or near the Caribbean. 50ºW before TC development is not a CV storm, even if the wave was from Africa.


INVEST 95L is here now


invest 95L floaters IS UP!!


INVEST 95L moving west north west at this time


Even though we have 95L, I still think the feature to the west is worth looking at. It may not look like much now.



Quoting 656. hurricanes2018:


INVEST 95L moving west north west at this time


You'd think that the previous passage of these waves would have moistened the environment. SAL appears to be withdrawing. This wave should have a chance to become a depression/storm at some point.
Quick takeway from 95L early track models is GFS predicts much stronger low level flow from the East than upper flow, or effectively, 95L will be experiencing relative Westerly shear.

Quoting 657. Grothar:


Even though we have 95L, I still think the feature to the west is worth looking at. It may not look like much now.





Hello Grothar-
What are its chances? Are there any impediments out there?
Quoting Levi32:


The GFS has had a storm in the gulf at Days 10-15 for essentially a month straight. It's in its own little world most of the time with storms in that area. Once you see a storm show up there at Day 7-8 on the model, then it might be something to watch for.


I feel like thats been the case all season. I dont get excited until we actually can track an Invest. Until one forms its all just guessing games :o)
Quoting 657. Grothar:



Even though we have 95L, I still think the feature to the west is worth looking at. It may not look like much now.






Ok you've been glued to this feature...might have to get my bifocals out as well. Much closer to home and Baha.
Quoting 661. rmbjoe1954:



Hello Grothar-
What are its chances? Are there any impediments out there?


At this time, I would say there might be more hostile conditions for 95L than the feature to west. That one should be in the vicinity of the northern islands in a few days, and conditions near the Bahamas may become favorable for development. There should be a pretty strong high over the US and that often drops pressure in the Caribbean and Gulf areas. This would also give a good boost to anything that may try to develop there. The EURO and the GFS are now both showing some development in the SW Gulf.
Now you realize the Doc will be on in a few minutes and we will have to repost all our little maps.
this is the most rain I have seen in Houston, in 4 years at least.
Quoting 662. StormWx:



I feel like thats been the case all season. I dont get excited until we actually can track an Invest. Until one forms its all just guessing games :o)


My understanding, the GFS, to save computing time, models all latent heat of condensation released by thunderstorms vertically, which is a good approximation in low shear environments, but will produce spurious TCs anytime there are persistent thunderstorms in a higher shear environment.

July when the GFS was always 6 to 8 days away for an entire week of a Caribbean TC comes to mind. It gets worse after the number of terms in the transform get reduced, creating effectively lower resolution, so each thunderstorm, which the GFS fills an entire block with, is adding that much more heat in the model's perspective.

If there is at least a well developed wave that is convectively active and under moderate shear, than the GFS isn't so bad.
Quoting 667. robinvtx1215:

this is the most rain I have seen in Houston, in 4 years at least.



Seems like it.

And radar shows it at my house.

And of course,,in Houston, at least West Houston, Katy area,,,,EVERY road seems to flood somewhere!
wow, looking to make a go of it.

Quoting 664. Grothar:


Quoting Patrap:
Betsy, 1965

From a mature blogger's memory.

: P



I'm surprised by your still functioning memory cells...after so much abuse!
just happen to have a look and captured this

time stamp
2014/09/18
14:13:08
invest 95L LOOKING better this morning
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 481. StormJunkie:

Bryan H. ‏@theCTA 6m

Sad 2 see those who want the news 2 report on looting in #Cabo. How about reporting on how many are now homeless after #HurricaneODILE ??


This area receives daily shipments of supplies. It really isn't surprising to see looting. It is also likely a necessary evil at the moment. Some of the stuff that is being looted wouldn't last anyway. Bread, frozen goods, etc. Even the stuff that would last; it's likely that store owners won't be around to collect payment. Also hard to get funds I am sure. Granted, there really isn't an excuse for walking out of a store with a flat screen TV.

That said, I concur with the general consensus of the tweet. There is little to no information coming out about the residents of the Pen. There also seems to be a real lack of interest in it. I'll use this blogosphere as an example and I will preface it with the fact that I'm not throwing stones at any one individual. That said, what has taken place on the Baja Pen is likely, hopefully, a once in a lifetime weather event. Meanwhile, the interests of the weather junkies here seems to still focus on GW, how much rain Fl will get, Eduardo making major and why it didn't get upgraded sooner, why the Atl is so quiet, is El Nino coming, will 2100 be any more active in the Atlantic, etc, etc, etc...

Everyone here has just witnessed something unique, fascinating, a humanitarian disaster of epic proportions...And yet it doesn't seem to captivate the way I would expect it would. I hope this isn't a sign of the help that Baja will receive in the coming weeks and months.
One thing to be thankful for: There does not seem to be the (usual) contingent of clueless bloggers critiquing every move made by officials and, oh, the (usual) glaring condemnations of weather forecasters, local building codes and local customs. Likely because this hurricane affected Mexico not the U.S.

Some who blog here have never seen this type of natural destruction and have no clue what it means to have your life gone, wiped out in a moment, yet still be "alive." Sad fact is, some of them may end up "learning the hard way."

Quoting 648. indianrivguy:



I am confused Edward in Volusia.. :) We've only had a dozen or so deaths in Florida.. Stephan Schafer died here in Stuart 2010. Kite boarder, fell, got bit by a bullshark in the buttocks. Lifeguard saw the distress and went out to him.. through a circling pack of sharks and tried to bring them in above the kite to stave off new attacks. Stephan bled out. The Lifeguard had been bitten twenty years back, so it took a measure of courage to try and save Stephan. In the emergency room, some medical students pulled out their camera phones and posted pictures of his dead body.. none of them will ever be Doctors in Florida.
Not sure where your confusion lies. I mentioned that I can't recall any deaths in Volusia County. I think Stuart is in Martin County.

2. A broad area of low pressure could form off of the east coast of
Florida over the weekend. This system will have some potential to
acquire tropical or subtropical characteristics while it moves
northeastward near or offshore of the southeastern coast of the
United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Stewart




A TX police officer is missing after radioing her patrol car was being washed away.. Says Odie did it but seems like 92L has been raining out over that area more the last few days...