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Odile Dumping Heavy Rains on Southwest U.S.; Edouard Becomes a Major Hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:28 PM GMT on September 16, 2014

Residents of Mexico's Baja Peninsula are picking up the pieces after devastating Hurricane Odile smashed ashore at Cabo San Lucas near 12:45 am EDT Monday as a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds. Odile was the strongest hurricane on record to hit the Baja Peninsula, tied with Hurricane Olivia of 1967. Odile's powerful winds caused heavy damage on the southern tip of Baja, where the tourist meccas of Cabo San Lucas and San Jose del Cabo lie. The airports in both cities are closed, with the San Jose del Cabo airport (7th busiest in Mexico) closed until September 22, and the Cabo San Lucas airport may be closed until October. Fortunately, no deaths are being attributed to the hurricane--a tribute to the excellence of Mexico's civil defense system.


Figure 1. The Cabo San Lucas Airport was heavily damaged by Hurricane Odile, and will remain closed until October. Photo posted to Twitter by Matthew Perry ‏@perrymatt ‪(pic.twitter.com/WK6SJLyJXL)‬.

Odile's heavy rains
NASA's TRMM satellite estimated that Odile produced rainfall rates of 188.4 mm (7.4 inches) per hour one hour before landfall. La Paz reported 6.58" (168.9 mm) in 24 hours ending at 3:45 pm EDT Monday. A Personal Weather Station in Santa Rosa, about 3 miles inland from the coastal city of San Jose del Cabo, measured 27.36" (695 mm) of rain--though this measurement may not be reliable, since it came from a personal weather station. The annual average rainfalll in Cabo San Lucas is just 8.7" (221 mm).


Figure 2. NASA's TRMM satellite passed directly above Hurricane Odile on September 15, 2014 at 0344 UTC, about an hour before the hurricane hit Baja California near Cabo San Lucas. The image above shows rainfall derived from TRMM's Precipitation Radar (PR) and Microwave Imager (TMI) instruments overlaid on a GOES-WEST enhanced Infrared image received at 0330 UTC. TRMM PR showed that Odile contained intense thunderstorms dropping rain at a rate of over 188.4 mm ( about 7.4 inches) per hour in the hurricane's nearly circular eye wall. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Odile
Interaction with the rough terrain of the Baja Peninsula knocked Odile down to Category tropical storm with 55 mph winds as of 11 am EDT Tuesday, and the storm will continue to steadily weaken as it heads north across the Gulf of California and makes a second landfall along the northeast coast of the Gulf on Wednesday. Heavy rains will be the main threat from Odile. The storm's circulation is bringing up plenty of moisture from the Tropical Pacific, and the remnant circulation from Odile will combine with this moisture to create flooding rains over Northern Mexico and the Southwest U.S. most of the week. The 06Z Tuesday run of the GFDL model put Eastern Arizona in the highest risk area for heavy precipitation, while the official 7-day precipitation forecast from NOAA shows Southeast Arizona and Southwest New Mexico at highest risk of flooding rains of 4 - 8". A flash flood watch is posted for Phoenix and Tucson in Arizona. An outer spiral band of Odile was over Southeast Arizona on Tuesday morning, and produced a thunderstorm between Tucson and Phoenix whose high winds derailed a train near Picacho.


Figure 3. Predicted rainfall amounts for the 5-day period beginning at 2 am EDT Tuesday September 16, 2014 from Hurricane Odile, from the GFDL hurricane model. A swath from the Mexican coast of the Gulf of California through Eastern Arizona is predicted to get 4 - 8" of rain. Image credit: NOAA/GFDL.

Tropical Storm Polo a threat to Southwest Mexico
The Pacific coast of Mexico has a new heavy rainfall threat to be concerned with--Tropical Storm Polo, which formed about 360 miles SSE of Acapulco at 5 am EDT Tuesday. Polo is expected to head northwest towards the Pacific coast of Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday, and will be capable of bringing heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches of rain to the coast of Southwest Mexico near Manzanillo Wednesday through Friday. While most of our reliable forecast models show Polo will miss making landfall, the reliable European model has the storm hitting Mexico near Manzanillo on Thursday, while the UKMET model shows Polo coming very close to the tip of the Baja Peninsula on Sunday. The 11 am EDT WInd Probability Forecast from NHC gives Cabo San Lucas on the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula a 31% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds from Polo, and a 2% chance of hurricane-force winds. Satellite loops show that Polo has plenty of heavy thunderstorms, but the storm is just beginning to get organized.

A remarkably active 2014 Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Polo's formation brings the 2014 tally for the Eastern Pacific east of 140°W to 16 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 7 intense hurricanes. An average Eastern Pacific hurricane season sees 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes during the entire year, and we are close to tying the record of eight intense hurricanes in a season set in 1992. What's really remarkable about the 2014 season is the proportion of named storms that have intensified to major hurricane strength: 8 of 15, or more than 50%. That's really difficult to do, particularly when the cold water wakes left behind by previous major hurricanes chill down the sea surface temperatures. Wunderground member wxgeek723 put together this list of other notable hurricane events in the Eastern Pacific in 2014:

-The strongest May hurricane on record: Category 4 Amanda (155 mph winds)
-Persistent Genevieve, which visited three basins and blossomed into a Category 5 monster
-Twin hurricanes Iselle and Julio threatening Hawaii
-Iselle, with 60 mph winds, the strongest named storm on record to hit the Big Island of Hawaii
-Karina, the seventh longest-lived Eastern Pacific storm
-Category 5 Marie (160 mph winds), the sixth strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane on record
-Category 3 Norbert, which put a sliver of California in its TS cone and fed into Phoenix's wettest day in history
-Odile, the strongest hurricane to ever hit Baja and the twelfth strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane on record


Figure 4. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Edouard, taken at approximately 12 pm EDT Monday September 15, 2014. At the time, Edouard was a Category 2 storm with top sustained winds of 105 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Edouard becomes the Atlantic's first major hurricane
The Atlantic's first major hurricane since Hurricane Sandy of 2012 is Hurricane Edouard, which intensified into a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds at 11 am EDT Tuesday. Edouard is heading north-northwest at 13 mph over the Central Atlantic, and is not a threat to any land areas. Satellite images show that Edouard remains well-organized with a prominent eye. Edouard is the first Atlantic major hurricane since Hurricane Sandy made landfall over Cuba as a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds on October 25, 2012.

New African tropical wave may develop this weekend
There is a new tropical wave predicted to come off the coast of Africa on Wednesday that all three of our reliable genesis models are predicting could develop near the Cape Verde Islands by Friday or Saturday. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 0% and 20%, respectively.


Figure 5. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Kalmaegi over China just north of Hainan Island, taken at approximately 12:30 am EDT Tuesday September 16, 2014. At the time, Kalmaegi was a Category 1 storm with top sustained winds of 80 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Kalmaegi hits China
In the Western Pacific, Category 1 Typhoon Kalmaegi hit China just north of Hainan Island near 2 am EDT Tuesday as a Category 1 storm with 80 mph winds. The typhoon hit Luzon Island in the Philippines on Sunday, also as a Category 1 storm with 80 mph winds. The typhoon killed ten people in the Philippines, eight of them when a ferry capsized. Kalmaegi is expected to make a third landfall in northern Vietnam as a tropical storm or minimal Category 1 typhoon around 1 pm EDT Tuesday.

Hurricane expert Steve Gregory has a more detailed look at the tropics in his Tuesday afternoon post.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

@ 500. flibinite:
My third response was even more "chippy", as this one will also be.

Gotta admit... you're good. Hope they're paying you well. Folks on here (featured bloggers excepted) are doing it for free.

And yes, they've handled questions like yours many times before. Those who were sincere in the asking seemed to be satisfied with the answers given. Doubt that you ever will, however.
Quoting Drakoen:


The 3 reliable 00z global models have him hooking west close to or south of the peninsula. Will have to continue to watch the model trends.


I ran the GFDL , regardless of path timeline puts them in possible harms way by Sat. morning.
There going to have to start getting ready soon.
Quoting 500. flibinite:

Your first response was good, Esther; your second response was rather chippy... but that's okay.

I will post my, um... post tomorrow when more members are on, as I'd really like to know. I'd like to see how they refute the strong, historical correlation between Maunder and Dalton sunspot minimums with global cooling (and serious cooling), and their "proofs" that such solar variables (now most solar scientists agree that we're in for a period of lessened solar activity), have been added... correctly... into their global climate models, out there for the 10, 25, and 50 year periods.

I am assuming that both you and they won't try to say that changes in solar activity don't have a rather strong effect on Earth's climate. That it does, and must, seems pretty logical and straightforward to me, and I must admit I wouldn't be all that amenable to any scientist, even Dr. Masters, who just plays solar variability off as not really being an important factor in Earth's current, and future, climate.

Thanks for responding....

Jo

Too bad, intuition fails here. Don't feel, check it out because you actually can.
Well, you're wrong, Esther. I will bow to a good, valid argument and counter response. That said, "they're" simply saying they've "found" that sunspot minimums don't correlate with global warming, for this "scientific", chemistry-based reason or that... which fly in the face of empirical, observable studies that say different... will not suffice as a valid argument for me... at least not completely.

It may for you, and that's fine, but to me, I don't believe in coincidences, and I'm far less trusting of most government funded scientists than I am of what provably happened in the past.

Thank you for saying that I'm "good". I assume that's because I can write a legitimate English sentence, and I posit a certain amount of logic. I'd say the same to you, honestly, but again, you didn't refute or answer anything I asked... you simply carped about how I asked it.

That said, you did point me toward someplace that might answer my questions, whereas you could not (no problem... I doubt there's more than a couple on this blog that actually could, without resorting to the word games that you did), so that's of legitimate help, and I will try to check that place out soon, and see what information they might have for me.

And thank you, too, Kampen, as I'll put you on the side of those who believe that the running and total amount of solar heat and radiation over time apparently has no effect at all on our global climate. You may be right, yes, but again, I find that rather difficult to buy, and find that even more difficult to accept every time I step outdoors.

Jo
Quoting 487. EstherD:


Coming from you, that's probably as close to a compliment as I'm ever likely to get. So thanks. ( I think. ;)

Here's one back at you. You may "stir the pot" on occasion, but you always do so constructively, by exposing hidden assumptions and poking holes in fallacious arguments. Can't remember ever reading anything by you that I considered to be inflammatory or trollish. ( I'm sure Astro will correct me if I missed 'em. ;)


Well I was called a sociopath not too long ago. I laughed. :)
You're no "stranger" than 90% of the people on here, Korinthe, including me. We all just make allowances, cope, and move on down the road about such things... same as always. :P

Jo
@ 505. flibinite:
You definitely are a cut above the usual class of deniers and tinfoil hatters we get on this blog. Guess places like this are scary to the folks that bankroll types like you, huh? So they've decided to up the ante.

You don't trust govt scientists, eh? Just WHO do you think did those "empirical, observable studies that say different"? And why should those that give answers YOU like be any more trustworthy than those that give answers you don't like? Riddle me that one, please.

Moreover, any good scientist will tell you that it matters greatly exactly HOW you frame the question, because if you do it wrong, then certain classes of answers are automatically precluded even before you set to work on it. That may appear to be "carping" to you, but it isn't. It's based on years of experience learning HOW to frame questions to maximize the probability of getting a useable answer. Your framing fails that test.
Here's about the best "Chapter and Verse" I can find on Solar Forcing from authoritative sources: Solar Irradiance Variability and Climate

To quote from the conclusion:

"it is virtually impossible to assign the global warming of
the past half century to variations in solar irradiance alone, using either statistical or physical
methods".

In fact while global temperatures have been setting records, the sunspot numbers (a very good proxy for overall solar activity) are at abnormally low levels, indicating that the relative level of solar activity is most likely acting to reduce global temperatures at present.
Thanks, Esther (again) and chimera, but again, Esther, you've answered nothing, only cast aspersions on me and my feelings (my college Masters is in Business Administration about 10 years ago). I've been on this blog for about 10 years too, and predicted Katrina's landfall location within five miles, and did so a day and a half before it hit. I was within 10 miles of Rita's too, just as it started its big, rather surprising, northerly turn, too.

I don't know whether to be happy or sad that I write well enough that all you can see is "corporate shill" in my words, rather than being someone, some weather layperson, whose confused by the chapter and verse acceptance of global climate models that can't even predict what the Earth's heat source is going to be doing 5-10 years from now.

And thank you for your input, chimera, and I will look at that, but again, look at the quoted "conclusion" you posted. I mean, I don't care what they've proved about the "last half-century". I'm talking about Maunder and Dalton minimums that happened way in the past. I'm talking about the lack of sunspot activity that may have been a big part of the cause of colder climate changes back in 1750, A.D., and prior. What does what they've discovered about the past 50 years have to do with those more extreme times?

I mean, that's a logical, legitimate, um... question, isn't it?

And one other thing, quickly. Why do they talk about this August being the X-th warmest on record via comparison with 1951-1990 global anomalies? Why aren't the Dust Bowl 30's part of the average they're creating this anomaly against, as there are probably still more high temperature records set then, at least in this country, than in any other decade.

Why exclude that decade in determining what is "normal"? :-(

Jo
Quoting 502. lat25five:



I ran the GFDL , regardless of path timeline puts them in possible harms way by Sat. morning.
There going to have to start getting ready soon.


Run the UKMET, GFS, and ECMWF.
@ 510. flibinite:
Can you prove to me ANY of the things you say about yourself through reliable, primary sources? So why should I believe you? Without evidence, it's all hearsay, isn't it?

And you like to repeat the mantra that I haven't answered your question. Well, turn about is fair play... you haven't answered mine, either: "You don't trust govt scientists, eh? Just WHO do you think did those "empirical, observable studies that say different"? And why should those that give answers YOU like be any more trustworthy than those that give answers you don't like?"
Quoting Drakoen:


Run the UKMET, GFS, and ECMWF.


COPY , THKS
Quoting 510. flibinite:

I'm talking about the lack of sunspot activity that may have been a big part of the cause of colder climate changes back in 1750, A.D., and prior. :-(

Jo


I'm not sure what you are trying to argue? I don't think there is any argument that Solar Activity was a factor in the 18th century minima - or at least I'm not aware of an argument that goes that way. Nor is there an argument that Solar Forcing has a continuous impact upon global temperature - *however* the authors of that review are concluding that *even though* solar activity has an impact upon global temperature, that alone cannot be considered responsible for the current trends.

Also with regard to your comments about the 1930s, remember that the US is not the whole world. While temperatures in the US in the 1930s may have been setting records left, right and centre (I don't have the data to hand but I'm willing to concede that), in global terms, those years rank quite a way down.

Here's a good source for global temperatures since 1880: NCDC.

Plugging in the numbers shows the means Global Temperature Anomaly (from 1901-2000 mean) from 1930-1939 to vary from -0.14 to +0.08, while the last decade from +0.51 to +0.68.

Interestingly enough, a brief (by eye) comparison of the Sunspot Count proxy between the 1930s and the 2000s shows them to be broadly similar, with the Grand Maximum of the ~1950s a noticeable peak in between.

NHC going with a landfall in southern Arizona also. Cool.
Hey Kori wassup
Quoting 516. bigwes6844:

Hey Kori wassup



Good morning, Wes!
@ 510. flibinite:
You claim to have been on this blog "about 10 years". Yet your join date is "April 13, 2007".

You claim to have predicted both Katrina and Rita. Both in 2005, and conveniently before your join date, so there aren't any records of those predictions here that I can verify independently.

Much like your distrust of govt-funded scientists, THOSE discrepancies need to be explained before I am willing to trust anything you say about yourself.

So far, you haven't demonstrated any knowledge of weather or climate that couldn't be had simply by searching online. Unfortunately, these blogs aren't searchable, either through WU or Goggle. Else I would go back in time and see what kind of a "weather layperson" you might be.

OTOH, I'm enough of a computer whiz, and being retired, have enough free time on my hands that I just might be able to scrape the site and implement my own search for your prior postings. If I did, what do you think I might find?
Quoting 518. EstherD:

@ 510. flibinite:
You claim to have been on this blog "about 10 years". Yet your join date is "April 13, 2007".

You claim to have predicted both Katrina and Rita. Both in 2005, and conveniently before your join date, so there aren't any records of those predictions here that I can verify independently.

Much like your distrust of govt-funded scientists, THOSE discrepancies need to be explained before I am willing to trust anything you say about yourself.

So far, you haven't demonstrated any knowledge of weather or climate that couldn't be had simply by searching online. Unfortunately, these blogs aren't searchable, either through WU or Goggle. Else I would go back in time and see what kind of a "weather layperson" you might be.

OTOH, I'm enough of a computer whiz, and being retired, have enough free time on my hands that I just might be able to scrape the site and implement my own search for your prior postings. If I did, what do you think I might find?


It actually does, it's just very primitive. You can search by user via the Community Blogs page.
Quoting 517. KoritheMan:



Good morning, Wes!
anything gonna make it to the gulf this year soon?
Quoting 520. bigwes6844:

anything gonna make it to the gulf this year soon?


I doubt it, lol. Caribbean storms become less likely during El Nino years, and about the only place that's left for development in October is... well... the western Caribbean.
What the locals are left with.



Good morning and afternoon. Should be a fun drive to work this morning, dense fog advisory, less than 1/4 mile. The way some drive around here, not fun.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Fruity Baked Oatmeal, Spicy Scrambled Egg Sandwiches, apple cinnamon waffles, Corned Beef Hash with Fried Eggs, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Teas or a special treat of flavored cappuccinos, cinnamon, Irish cream, white chocolate caramel or French vanilla . Enjoy!
524. MahFL
Quoting 515. KoritheMan:

NHC going with a landfall in southern Arizona also. Cool.


You mean NW Mexico right ?, Arizona is not directly connected to the Gulf of California.
Quoting 521. KoritheMan:



I doubt it, lol. Caribbean storms become less likely during El Nino years, and about the only place that's left for development in October is... well... the western Caribbean.


Lol, no El Niño to speak of at the moment, maybe November, December time frame


good morning everyone look at this tropical storm POLO
7hr drive N of Cabo according to tweeter.

Did I mention 'Fay' is unlikely to be a September storm. I see nothing credible suggesting another storm this month. I assume there will be a Fay in October, but who knows.


Usual 360 hour GFS silliness assumed to be wrong (see 6Z GFS) assumed to be wrong, as it has been wrong all season.
Quoting 525. STORMW2014:



Lol, no El Niño to speak of at the moment, maybe November, December time frame


It's just easier to claim El Nino when the atmosphere is behaving like one.

Sometimes it doesn't need to be official. Conditions are still hostile.
Quoting 529. EdMahmoud:

Did I mention 'Fay' is unlikely to be a September storm. I see nothing credible suggesting another storm this month. I assume there will be a Fay in October, but who knows.


Usual 360 hour GFS silliness assumed to be wrong (see 6Z GFS) assumed to be wrong, as it has been wrong all season.


The 240hr + time frame will be wrong for a long, long time to come...but if they didn't at least start trying; then it wouldn't have a chance of ever being right.
Quoting 508. EstherD:

@ 505. flibinite:
You definitely are a cut above the usual class of deniers and tinfoil hatters we get on this blog. Guess places like this are scary to the folks that bankroll types like you, huh? So they've decided to up the ante.

You don't trust govt scientists, eh? Just WHO do you think did those "empirical, observable studies that say different"? And why should those that give answers YOU like be any more trustworthy than those that give answers you don't like? Riddle me that one, please.

Moreover, any good scientist will tell you that it matters greatly exactly HOW you frame the question, because if you do it wrong, then certain classes of answers are automatically precluded even before you set to work on it. That may appear to be "carping" to you, but it isn't. It's based on years of experience learning HOW to frame questions to maximize the probability of getting a useable answer. Your framing fails that test.




Disregarding everything else he has said, you don't really think the Koch Brothers or someone at Big Oil or whatever bankrolls random internet forum bloggers, do you?
The MDR has pretty much been shut down this year as forecast. I do expect energy heading north from the Caribbean or BOC sometime in October. Shear will be relaxing, plenty of disturbed weather from the Pacific and very warm water.
Quoting 524. MahFL:



You mean NW Mexico right ?, Arizona is not directly connected to the Gulf of California.


After Mexico, obviously. Still shows a depression in Arizona.


And.......we're back....



I think September moved north...
Is any of the rain from Odile expected to relieve drought conditions in southern California?

Did Pikachu get hurt when the train derailed nearby?
@flibinite:

I'm not so learned as yourself. But when you ask " what does what they've learned about the last 50 years have to do with those more extreme times" makes me wonder if it has occurred to you that people made observations during those extreme times, and recorded them.

So we can compare what's been going on during the last 50 years with what was recorded during those extreme times.

So if scientists are recording record high temperatures, they aren't comparing them to just the 1950's, or the 1930's, or the 1840's, they are comparing them to recorded history, are they not? When Dr. Masters says "month X was the warmest on record" he's not saying "since 1953" or "since 1929," he's saying since people started writing down temperatures.

Also, can you point us to studies that support your conclusion that sunspot activity affects climate? I'm not understanding the physics of how that would occur.

Quoting 532. EdMahmoud:




Disregarding everything else he has said, you don't really think the Koch Brothers or someone at Big Oil or whatever bankrolls random internet forum bloggers, do you?


Not sure there is anything random about it. But I could be wrong. It happened once, I'm told, but I could be mistaken.
Could someone post on Riah's video blog, if there is good news to "deliver"?
Quoting 535. JrWeathermanFL:



And.......we're back....



I think September moved north...


Atlantic is dead!
Bubba ?



Good Morning all..

Low off the SE coast..

Quoting 543. Patrap:

Bubba ?






I'm just returning the favor as this what he calls me all the time.


watching the next tropical wave
just checked the surf weak swell showing too much west wind blowing that hurricane swell back to sea 1 foot
We are really sliding right back down the ladder now. With shear becoming more and more a issue we are going to be hard pressed to get 2 more storms. I have to go back in look at past seasons but I would assume this season could be in the top 10 for slowest seasons ever.

551. MahFL
Quoting 536. biff4ugo:

Is any of the rain from Odile expected to relieve drought conditions in southern California?


No, the moisture is east of CA in AZ and NM.
Quoting 505. flibinite:

... And thank you, too, Kampen, as I'll put you on the side of those who believe that the running and total amount of solar heat and radiation over time apparently has no effect at all on our global climate. You may be right, yes, but again, I find that rather difficult to buy, and find that even more difficult to accept every time I step outdoors.

Jo

You can put all you want, but the thing is simply that the sun is a remarkably constant influence re earth climate. Like I said, you can check this yourself. If you find e.g. the Maunder or Dalton minima, or the huge solar max of the 1770's to not at all coincide with depths resp. heights of the LIA, start thinking vulcanism.
Changes of greenhouse gas concentrations are far stronger, changing drivers. Today there is effectively nothing else, even.
Note how August '14 (and some other months this year) got #1 warmest under neutral EN/SO conditions and a solar max that is the weakest sinds at least the first of the 20th century. CO2 does this.
Unless we can stop the CO2 rise attributed to the burning of fossil fuels, we are condemned to suffer the realities of Physics. They care not for the suffering of fools.


Hmmmmm
Bubba From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to: navigation, search In American usage, bubba is a relationship nickname formed from brother and given to boys, especially eldest male siblings, to indicate their role in a family. For some boys and men, bubba is used so pervasively that it replaces the given name. The nickname may also be used outside the family by friends as a term of endearment.

Because of its association with the southern part of the United States, bubba is also often used outside the South as a pejorative to mean a person of low economic status and limited education. Bubba may also be taken to mean one who is a "good ol' boy." In the US Army and Marines, bubba can mean a lay soldier, similar to grunt but with connotations of endearment instead of derision (e.g., "Can you make that device easier to work with, 'cus every bubba is gonna have to use it.").

At times it may be used as a term of endearment (or in an insulting sense) for a person, especially a man, who is either overweight or seemingly powerful large body frame.[1][2]

In gun culture, Bubba is a term used for a person who permanently alters or modifies historic firearms, with no regard for its historical value.

The word exists in other languages and carries similar meanings. Bubba is common in Australia and New Zealand as a noun or pronoun to refer affectionately to a baby.

Quoting 552. cRRKampen:


You can put all you want, but the thing is simply that the sun is a remarkably constant influence re earth climate. Like I said, you can check this yourself. If you find e.g. the Maunder or Dalton minima, or the huge solar max of the 1770's to not at all coincide with depths resp. heights of the LIA, start thinking vulcanism.
Changes of greenhouse gas concentrations are far stronger, changing drivers. Today there is effectively nothing else, even.
Note how August '14 (and some other months this year) got #1 warmest under neutral EN/SO conditions and a solar max that is the weakest sinds at least the first of the 20th century. CO2 does this.

Yeah, here's a pretty simple graph from Skeptical Science. Solar output is simply not the dominant driver of Earth's climate. In particular since 1960 the trends are nearly opposite. This opposite trend will become sharper in the coming years as the Sun heads for a very deep minimum and global temperatures continue to rise.

If this was an average year we'd see 4-5 more named storms.
But this year is running below average so a more realistic number would be 2-3 more named storms.






Gulp, what happened to this Nino region? Uh oh.. :o)

Quoting 515. KoritheMan:

NHC going with a landfall in southern Arizona also. Cool.

Landfall will be in Sonora, not landlocked Arizona.
Quoting ncstorm:
Good Morning all..

Low off the SE coast..



The GFS quickly spins up a low off the eastcoast and it heads OTS.
Not sure if it would have time to be a purely tropical system.
Quoting 532. EdMahmoud:




Disregarding everything else he has said, you don't really think the Koch Brothers or someone at Big Oil or whatever bankrolls random internet forum bloggers, do you?


Why not, they're at war with the scientific community and the average man. Investing over 200 million this election cycle alone to get their cronies elected to fight for big business and the super rich. Fighting for big business and the super rich is their agenda, they've said as much. Think if the Koch brothers were spending on anti-science bloggers here though we'd see stronger straw man arguments and better false arguments than the very very weak attempts to circumvent what is the proof given and articulated on by 97% of climate scientists and thousands and thousands of peer reviewed papers that back up the science. Koch brothers thinking is much larger than putting bloggers on a site like this, they are king makers.
StormWx and StormTrackerScott have a better bromance than Kori and I do.
Quoting 562. DeepSeaRising:



Why not, they're at war with the scientific community and the average man. Investing over 200 million this election cycle alone to get their cronies elected to fight for big business and the super rich. Fighting for big business and the super rich is their agenda, they've said as much. Think if the Koch brothers were spending on anti-science bloggers here though we'd see stronger straw man arguments and better false arguments than the very very weak attempts to circumvent what is the proof given and articulated on by 97% of climate scientists and thousands and thousands of peer reviewed papers that back up the science. Koch brothers thinking is much larger than putting bloggers on a site like this, they are king makers.


Kochs not only trying to buy the anti-science types:

Koch brothers sought say in academic hiring in return for university donation
Good morning all. We picked up 1.17" of the wet stuff at my house North of Austin last night which was awesome. A couple of PWS not too far in Round Rock picked up close to 3" and the forecast calls for heavy rain from tropical showers off and on over the next couple of days. Thank you EPAC. Keep em coming.

Potential for the wave and maybe a little east coast action.
Ugh. I try to visit here, yet:
"A script on this page may be busy, or it may have stopped responding. You can stop the script now, or you can continue to see if the script will complete.

Script: http://ajax.googleapis.com/ajax/libs/jquery/1.7.2/ jquery.min.js:3"

Really annoying. Fresh Firefox, ad block disabled. Anyone else? Tips?
Quoting 533. unknowncomic:

The MDR has pretty much been shut down this year as forecast. I do expect energy heading north from the Caribbean or BOC sometime in October. Shear will be relaxing, plenty of disturbed weather from the Pacific and very warm water.


And we haven't had any storms develop there if you exclude Dolly from the rest of the Gulf/W Caribbean. Water that's just been left to heat up undisturbed.

Quoting 534. KoritheMan:



After Mexico, obviously. Still shows a depression in Arizona.


If it had gone more east and had time to spin in the sauna that is the gulf of California it could've been a TS...in Arizona!

Wonder when the last time that happened was if ever.
Quoting 549. StormTrackerScott:

We are really sliding right back down the ladder now. With shear becoming more and more a issue we are going to be hard pressed to get 2 more storms. I have to go back in look at past seasons but I would assume this season could be in the top 10 for slowest seasons ever.




As the saying goes "It only takes one". You can still have a devastating storm form later in the season and cause chaos such as Hurricane Gordan in 1994, Hurricane Lili in 2002 and Hurricane Flora in 1963. Of course there are many other examples of "nice" storms which stay out to sea or cause minimal damage later in the season. Will be interesting to see what happens and glad we got a very nice looking storm from Eduoard.
Odile's center is getting closer to Arizona.



I can't help but think when I look at storms like this that the caption would read "What's up everyone, Edouard here. Nothing much going on in these here parts so I'm going back home. that is all. TTYL."

This wave looks good. This one will make it. What do you think.
Quoting 578. Andrebrooks:


This wave looks good. This one will make it. What do you think.

I it can beat the dry air to the north of it will.
Quoting jdukes:

I it can beat the dry air to the north of it will.
It shouldn't be too much of an issue,
Quoting 572. atmoaggie:

Ugh. I try to visit here, yet:
"A script on this page may be busy, or it may have stopped responding. You can stop the script now, or you can continue to see if the script will complete.

Script: http://ajax.googleapis.com/ajax/libs/jquery/1.7.2/ jquery.min.js:3"

Really annoying. Fresh Firefox, ad block disabled. Anyone else? Tips?
Okay. This is the only site I seem to have an issue with, no one seems to be listening, and the content isn't so good that I'm willing to put any more time into looking for a solution. Fuggedaboudit.
Good Morning Eduoard..well near afternoon for you. The sun has nearly reached the depths of you eye..


Quoting 532. EdMahmoud:




Disregarding everything else he has said, you don't really think the Koch Brothers or someone at Big Oil or whatever bankrolls random internet forum bloggers, do you?

You've obviously never tried to moderated the mess of climate change discussion online...
Quoting Andrebrooks:
It shouldn't be too much of an issue,
Wind shear either.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Ugh. I try to visit here, yet:
"A script on this page may be busy, or it may have stopped responding. You can stop the script now, or you can continue to see if the script will complete.

Script: http://ajax.googleapis.com/ajax/libs/jquery/1.7.2/ jquery.min.js:3"

Really annoying. Fresh Firefox, ad block disabled. Anyone else? Tips?


Hi atmo... was having close to the same issue. So I use Firefox with the no script add-on and run the site using the classic version (http://classic.wunderground.com).
Quoting 549. StormTrackerScott:

We are really sliding right back down the ladder now. With shear becoming more and more a issue we are going to be hard pressed to get 2 more storms. I have to go back in look at past seasons but I would assume this season could be in the top 10 for slowest seasons ever.




Wait for the next two weeks, you might get a surprise.

Low in eastern Atlantic.
Quoting 582. atmoaggie:

Okay. This is the only site I seem to have an issue with, no one seems to be listening, and the content isn't so good that I'm willing to put any more time into looking for a solution. Fuggedaboudit.

Atmoaggie~ We've missed you..or atleast I have:)

Sorry. I don't know the answer. There was some way I think some got around it. I don't see it unless I try & use TravelDot's webcam. Most of us left here don't see it.

More development in eastern Atlantic.
Quoting 585. WxLogic:



Hi atmo... was having close to the same issue. So I use Firefox with the no script add-on and run the site using the classic version (http://classic.wunderground.com).



I get the script messages all day and sometimes have to actually shutdown and come back on. Shockwave also crashes, but it only happens on this site and NEVER on anything other site. I'm actually pretty good with computers, aside from all the joking, and I've had a few techs look at mine and they can't find anything wrong, except this site.
Quoting 582. atmoaggie:

Okay. This is the only site I seem to have an issue with, no one seems to be listening, and the content isn't so good that I'm willing to put any more time into looking for a solution. Fuggedaboudit.


Is that old atmo? I thought you moved to Tibet or something. It's been so long I can't remember if I liked you or not, but anyway, it's good to see you.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Atlantic is dead!


Expect another 4-5 storms. I think you said only 5 storms this year and im afraid that will be way off. In your opinion, what are the chances of FL getting those flooding rains you show us every other day? 90% 100% chance? You are a great forecaster, always right!
Quoting 582. atmoaggie:

Okay. This is the only site I seem to have an issue with, no one seems to be listening, and the content isn't so good that I'm willing to put any more time into looking for a solution. Fuggedaboudit.


Wow. Long time no see, aggie!
Quoting 587. Andrebrooks:


Low in eastern Atlantic.


It's like beating a dead horse, if something does form, it goes directly northwest into the Atlantic graveyard... Nothing of interest
I use Chrome with adblock and I've had no issues with the new WU aside from the quality control stuff on the main hurricane page (Odile was apparently down to 5mb at one point, that's gotta be a record).
I believe the wave off Africa will trek westward and develop east of the Antilles as SAL is minimal at this time.
GFS ensembles are hammering FL with tremendous amounts of rain the next 2 weeks. Infact many GFS ensembles are maxed out at 15" which is well above what would be normal for September.
Quoting 592. Grothar:



Is that old atmo? I thought you moved to Tibet or something. It's been so long I can't remember if I liked you or not, but anyway, it's good to see you.


thank you for the first laugh of the day :)
Even though it doesn't look like much, it seems a number of models are showing interest in the feature in the center. The large wave behind it also looks impressive. Remember, we have had some big hurricanes the last week of September.

Quoting Grothar:


Wait for the next two weeks, you might get a surprise.


I agree, I like surprises :o) IMHO, we will see another 3-5 storms. The NHC will reign supreme!
Quoting 597. rmbjoe1954:

I believe the wave off Africa will trek westward and develop east of the Antilles as SAL is minimal at this time.


Hell has a better chance of freezing over before that happens
Quoting 598. StormTrackerScott:
GFS ensembles are hammering FL with tremendous amounts of rain the next 2 weeks. Infact many GFS ensembles are maxed out at 15" which is well above what would be normal for September.


It does seem like El Nino whether it is declared or not.
Edouard still looks quite dashing. I wonder if he'll restrengthen to a category 2 today before his weakening trend starts.
Quoting 600. Grothar:

Even though it doesn't look like much, it seems a number of models are showing interest in the feature in the center. The large wave behind it also looks impressive. Remember, we have had some big hurricanes the last week of September.




That's the thing the waves come off Africa impressive then dissolve as they run into shear and dry air and there is lots of shear now across the MDR waiting for this next wave. Our only threat area seems to be the Caribbean going forward but even there shear would need to relax both at the surface and aloft.
Quoting LostTomorrows:
Edouard still looks quite dashing. I wonder if he'll restrengthen to a category 2 today before his weakening trend starts.
ADT still suggest that.
Quoting 590. Grothar:




I get the script messages all day and sometimes have to actually shutdown and come back on. Shockwave also crashes, but it only happens on this site and NEVER on anything other site. I'm actually pretty good with computers, aside from all the joking, and I've had a few techs look at mine and they can't find anything wrong, except this site.


They never appeared before the site switched to the new format. They used to appear almost 100% of the time I tried to load Dr. Master's blog. I could never tell why, and there were always multiple error messages. I usually just clicked "Stop script" until they quit popping up, and then I could read the blog and responses (albiet, without some imbedded material). My home lap top (HP, old, Windows Vista, Firefox), recently stopped popping up the error messages, with the exception of perhaps once a week or so. Acceptable, for me.

My work lap top (Macbook Pro, OS?, Safari) never pops up a script error.
Quoting 603. rmbjoe1954:



It does seem like El Nino whether it is declared or not.


We are at El-Nino levels finally and will very likely be declared in December and last into the end of next year.
good morning....2nd day of rain from odile today with the greatest amounts should be tonight and tomorrow.....looking at the models we shouldn't get the heaviest rains in our area...although the euro does show the highest likelyhood.....chances are the remnants of odie will follow the areas of highest lift and that just isn't us....anyways yesterday we received 2/3's of an inch....and the heavy rains should fall on our watershed.....so...no complaints...we should see the beneficial impacts of the storm
Quoting 593. CenterStorm:



Expect another 4-5 storms. I think you said only 5 storms this year and im afraid that will be way off. In your opinion, what are the chances of FL getting those flooding rains you show us every other day? 90% 100% chance? You are a great forecaster, always right!


needz moar subtlety in the all too obvious sarcasm
Te front has finally pushed through and some models are still hinting at some development off of the SE coast as they have for days.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:


That's the thing the waves come off Africa impressive then dissolve as they run into shear and dry air and there is lots of shear now across the MDR waiting for this next wave. Our only threat area seems to be the Caribbean going forward but even there shear would need to relax both at the surface and aloft.
No there is not, look.

And plus it can make an anticyclone for itself.
I'll give the wave 30/50. It will get into water today.
Quoting 603. rmbjoe1954:



It does seem like El Nino whether it is declared or not.


As the southern jet becomes more active then conditions will continue to stay wet across FL going thru the winter months into next spring.
Watch this feature in the coming days.

Quoting 612. Grothar:

Te front has finally pushed through and some models are still hinting at some development off of the SE coast as they have for days.




of a baroclinic low nothing tropical.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


of a baroclinic low nothing tropical.
You downcasting this morning huh.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


We are at El-Nino levels finally and will very likely be declared in December and last into the end of next year.


Can you give us the link that shows us the El Nino levels for each of the regions at 0.5C or higher? I could use some official source that shows us we are indeed in an El Nino. Thanks in advance!
Quoting 616. Grothar:

Watch this feature in the coming days.




JB says he expects it to go into the Gulf and enhance rainfall over our area next week.
Quoting Grothar:
Te front has finally pushed through and some models are still hinting at some development off of the SE coast as they have for days.



Hmmm, so the Atlantic isnt dead? The season isnt shut down? Say it aint so!
Quoting 607. LongIslandBeaches:



They never appeared before the site switched to the new format. They used to appear almost 100% of the time I tried to load Dr. Master's blog. I could never tell why, and there were always multiple error messages. I usually just clicked "Stop script" until they quit popping up, and then I could read the blog and responses (albiet, without some imbedded material). My home lap top (HP, old, Windows Vista, Firefox), recently stopped popping up the error messages, with the exception of perhaps once a week or so. Acceptable, for me.

My work lap top (Macbook Pro, OS?, Safari) never pops up a script error.


I still have Windows 7 and Firefox. Chrome doesn't work well for me at all. I've tried going back to Explorer, and that is even worse.
Quoting 619. CenterStorm:



Can you give us the link that shows us the El Nino levels for each of the regions at 0.5C or higher? I could use some official source that shows us we are indeed in an El Nino. Thanks in advance!


CPC has nino 3.4 at .5C now it just needs to maintain those levels for atleast 3 months.

Quoting 621. CenterStorm:



Hmmm, so the Atlantic isnt dead? The season isnt shut down? Say it aint so!


Shear and frontal. Nothing to see here.
Quoting 620. StormTrackerScott:



JB says he expects it to go into the Gulf and enhance rainfall over our area next week.


Scott, who are you going to listen to, me or JB???? There is supposed to be another feature in the Gulf which will move NE and perhaps that is what he is seeing.
Quoting 625. Grothar:



Scott, who are you going to listen to, me or JB???? There is supposed to be another feature in the Gulf which will move NE and perhaps that is what he is seeing.


That's probably what he is seeing either way I called this a few days back.
Quoting 605. StormTrackerScott:



That's the thing the waves come off Africa impressive then dissolve as they run into shear and dry air and there is lots of shear now across the MDR waiting for this next wave. Our only threat area seems to be the Caribbean going forward but even there shear would need to relax both at the surface and aloft.


Remember, Scott. I'm notating everything you write :):):)
is "El Nino'ish" a scientific term?


just a word of clarification....we use this graph here on this site...but it is not what the CPC looks at...the last four weeks the official average from the CPC has been 0.3c....0.4c.....0.4c...and 0.5c....you will not find those stats from lookling at this graph...use it as a trend and for what it's worth...but you will not get the official averages from it
Quoting 626. StormTrackerScott:



That's probably what he is seeing either way I called this a few days back.


OMG!!! You are so full of yourself
Quoting ricderr:


just a word of clarification....we use this graph here on this site...but it is not what the CPC looks at...the last four weeks the official average from the CPC has been 0.3c....0.4c.....0.4c...and 0.5c....you will not find those stats from lookling at this graph...use it as a trend and for what it's worth...but you will not get the official averages from it


Wait, so the official numbers are NOT at 0.5C? I asked for a link from Scott that shows the official numbers at 0.5C but i havent seen it yet. Guess he just made it up.
Quoting 622. Grothar:



I've tried going back to Explorer, and that is even worse.



Well, that was a critical error. :)
Wait, so the official numbers are NOT at 0.5C? I asked for a link from Scott that shows the official numbers at 0.5C but i havent seen it yet. Guess he just made it up.

no,...he just posted a graph that is close but not accurate...you can go to the cpc weekly enso update and find that it's at 0.5c...it's pdf format so you can't copy and paste :-)
Quoting 612. Grothar:

Te front has finally pushed through and some models are still hinting at some development off of the SE coast as they have for days.




At least its giving some well needed rain to the west coast of Florida. My parents back home said their gauge is coming in at over 2 inches so far and more is on the way.
Quoting 619. CenterStorm:



Can you give us the link that shows us the El Nino levels for each of the regions at 0.5C or higher? I could use some official source that shows us we are indeed in an El Nino. Thanks in advance!


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean.htm l

3.4 is right at +.5°C
Quoting Grothar:


Scott, who are you going to listen to, me or JB???? There is supposed to be another feature in the Gulf which will move NE and perhaps that is what he is seeing.


Hi Grothar, i do see some spin on the 850mb in the southern BOC.

Also plenty of spin of FL at the moment, possibly hinting at something developing off the SC coast in the upcoming days. Definitely not dead out there, and i expect we will see another 3-5 named storms this season.

Quoting ricderr:


no,...he just posted a graph that is close but not accurate...you can go to the cpc weekly enso update and find that it's at 0.5c...it's pdf format so you can't copy and paste :-)


Oh ok gotcha, i just want to make sure im hearing everything correctly and not just someones opinion or wish.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink /MJO/enso.shtml

For official niño endeavors :)
Oh ok gotcha, i just want to make sure im hearing everything correctly and not just someones opinion or wish.

i understand....hard to catch the truth from the bs sometimes
cold front = a lot of rain for me today in S FL! :P
Quoting 638. CenterStorm:



Oh ok gotcha, i just want to make sure im hearing everything correctly and not just someones opinion or wish.


I saw a month or so ago on twitter eric Blake saying the atmosphere is El Niño like (general pattern) but I think that is having more to do with PDO at the moment causing ridging out west forcing deep troughs in the east
this excerpt is from the 9/4 enso blog at climate.gov...gives a nice wrap up of what is happening


The weekly Niño3.4 index at the end of August was +0.4°C, and the monthly Southern Oscillation Index was -0.7. Another downwelling Kelvin wave developed during late July, and it’s transporting warmer-than-average waters eastward across the equatorial Pacific (Figure 2). These warmer waters will reach the surface of the eastern Pacific around September or October. This Kelvin wave, combined with the forecast from climate models for a weak El Niño, is leading forecasters to stick with the 2-to-1 odds that El Niño conditions will be met “in the next few months.”
Quoting 629. ricderr:



just a word of clarification....we use this graph here on this site...but it is not what the CPC looks at...the last four weeks the official average from the CPC has been 0.3c....0.4c.....0.4c...and 0.5c....you will not find those stats from lookling at this graph...use it as a trend and for what it's worth...but you will not get the official averages from it


Here is the post below that I sent this guy. I guess the guy is too lazy to go CPC and pull it up. Geesh some on here need to be feed with a spoon like a baby.


CPC has nino 3.4 at .5C now it just needs to maintain those levels for atleast 3 months.
I think some are blaming me for the dud of a hurricane season when they should be blaming El-Nino.
Quoting 622. Grothar:



I still have Windows 7 and Firefox. Chrome doesn't work well for me at all. I've tried going back to Explorer, and that is even worse.

o you must get win box 8 you will never have so much fun trying to find yourself
speaking of fun I just got here I see I missed it
Looking Good!!

Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Here is the post below that I sent this guy. I guess the guy is too lazy to go CPC and pull it up. Geesh some on here need to be feed with a spoon like a baby.


Wow thats really rude to say. Is there 'rules of the road' enforcement on this blog? Attacking me was uncalled for. Not everyone is as search savy for information as you may be.
Quoting weatherh98:


I saw a month or so ago on twitter eric Blake saying the atmosphere is El Niño like (general pattern) but I think that is having more to do with PDO at the moment causing ridging out west forcing deep troughs in the east


Can someone explain why Scott is saying we should be blaming El Nino for this years hurricane season when we don't have an El Nino yet? And he himself said we wouldnt have one til December when the hurricane season is actually over? Very very confusing. Hopefully i wont be attacked for asking a question on here.
Nothing terrible, just good beneficial totals, discount the Clearwater and Oldsmar as those gauges just aren't reporting right now:

Quoting 651. CenterStorm:



Wow thats really rude to say. Is there 'rules of the road' enforcement on this blog? Attacking me was uncalled for. Not everyone is as search savy for information as you may be.


It was rude for you to say I asked for a link. I showed you the graph so that you can see that the 3.4 reading on Levi's site is what the CPC has for this week that's all and then you proceeded to say the I need to sift through the bs to see if it was wishfull or true.
Quoting 652. CenterStorm:



Can someone explain why Scott is saying we should be blaming El Nino for this years hurricane season when we don't have an El Nino yet? And he himself said we wouldnt have one til December when the hurricane season is actually over? Very very confusing. Hopefully i wont be attacked for asking a question on here.


Not sure... Plenty of other things you could blame the season on.... -tripole/-AMO dip (temporary) would be big reasons.
Whatever the term is ..... the weather does seem to appear to be "El-Nino-ish!" It is acting strangely lately ... look at the similarities with 1992 vs. 2014. The EPac is behaving like 1992, in 2014 .. with a record amount of Pacific hurricanes.

As for the Atlantic Basin, happy to say that we have not had another devastating hit like Andrew of 1992, but the season has been a little lackluster, compared to recent years. Hawaii probably does not want another Iniki of 1992, but the big island did get Iselle.

Someone on here (a few days ago) mentioned that 2014 reminds them of the 1997 hurricane season. So far, it sure does!

Can someone please explain why the weather is behaving the way it is ? Could it be the beginning of El Nino?
Quoting weatherh98:


Not sure... Plenty of other things you could blame the season on.... -tripole/-AMO dip (temporary) would be big reasons.


Sounds reasonable, thanks!
Quoting 652. CenterStorm:



Can someone explain why Scott is saying we should be blaming El Nino for this years hurricane season when we don't have an El Nino yet? And he himself said we wouldnt have one til December when the hurricane season is actually over? Very very confusing. Hopefully i wont be attacked for asking a question on here.


Just because the CPC hasn't said we are in one officially doesn't mean that the atmosphere isn't in an El-Nino state as you can below the SOI index is over the -8 number for El-Nino and has been for 7 weeks.

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
SOI values for 17 Sep 2014 Average for last 30 days -10.1
Average for last 90 days -7.8
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -0.6
Quoting 628. ncstorm:

is "El Nino'ish" a scientific term?


It is now. :)
Quoting 628. ncstorm:

is "El Nino'ish" a scientific term?


Blinded me with Science!! :)
Quoting 587. Andrebrooks:


Low in eastern Atlantic.

Oh really
Nah try to stick to official Graphics



By the way anyone know if the classic version is back up yet
This new version does not work at all well on my IPad
And I can't use my computer because it got stolen if some of you remember
Quoting 657. Stormwatch247:

Whatever the term is ..... the weather does seem to appear to be "El-Nino-ish!" It is acting strangely lately ... look at the similarities with 1992 vs. 2014. The EPac is behaving like 1992, in 2014 .. with a record amount of Pacific hurricanes.

As for the Atlantic Basin, happy to say that we have not had another devastating hit like Andrew of 1992, but the season has been a little lackluster, compared to recent years. Hawaii probably does not want another Iniki of 1992, but the big island did get Iselle.

Someone on here (a few days ago) mentioned that 2014 reminds them of the 1997 hurricane season. So far, it sure does!

Can someone please explain why the weather is behaving the way it is ? Could it be the beginning of El Nino?
yes only problem is all the heat is in places its not normally supposed to be
When remnants of Odile emerge into GOM will it reform? And is Edouard expected to recurve towards US?
Quoting 665. congaline:

When remnants of Odile emerge into GOM will it reform? And is Edouard expected to recurve towards US?
Edouard does a circle dance of death to itself out there in atlantic
Quoting 652. CenterStorm:


Can someone explain why Scott is saying we should be blaming El Nino for this years hurricane season when we don't have an El Nino yet? And he himself said we wouldnt have one til December when the hurricane season is actually over? Very very confusing. Hopefully i wont be attacked for asking a question on here.


He's been on the El Nino band waggon since Feb / March of this year..... Saying there would be a strong El Nino before season even got started. I'm still waiting for his predictions to come to fruition.

From what I read we're still in an El Nino Watch
Quoting 663. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

yes only problem is all the heat is in places its not normally supposed to be


As a result we should see a big high over the Pacific NW with a large trough across the midwest and east combined with a strong southern jet we should see some pretty strong Nor eastern riding up the eastern US with lots of snow & ice.

With a typical or tranditional El-Nino we would see warmth across the northern US but that doesn't appear that will be the case anyways I see there is some snow heading in your direction this morning.

Quoting 555. MAweatherboy1:


Yeah, here's a pretty simple graph from Skeptical Science. Solar output is simply not the dominant driver of Earth's climate. In particular since 1960 the trends are nearly opposite. This opposite trend will become sharper in the coming years as the Sun heads for a very deep minimum and global temperatures continue to rise.




I wouldn't say that, solar connections to climate are elusive (such as the Solar-PDO-QBO connection), nor does a supposed divergence in trend from adjusted surface temperature data and TSI since 1960 necessarily rule out the sun as a primary driver of climate, given the overall trend in solar activity since the little ice age has been upwards in accordance w/ the 20th century modern maximum...


On the other hand, posting information from skeptical science would be the equivalent (like it or not) to someone posting from WUWT, both websites are heavily biased, and will produce charts, data, and articles that satisfy only their own point of view...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
951 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE LATEST
SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKS ON TRACK WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR BY THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE, THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND THEN DISSIPATE
AS THEY MOVE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS DURING THE EVENING.
THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AS WELL
AS FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THEREFORE POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED A LITTLE
BIT OVER THE EAST COAST AND LOWERED A LITTLE BIT OVER THE WEST
COAST FOR TODAY.
Quoting 665. congaline:

When remnants of Odile emerge into GOM will it reform? And is Edouard expected to recurve towards US?

No no no no no

That's if Odile gets even close to the GOM

Edouard expected to recurve but to what extent well it's not going towards the US and another thing is whether or not it will be tropical at that point which goes 50/50 it might/it might not
Quoting 637. CenterStorm:



Hi Grothar, i do see some spin on the 850mb in the southern BOC.

Also plenty of spin of FL at the moment, possibly hinting at something developing off the SC coast in the upcoming days. Definitely not dead out there, and i expect we will see another 3-5 named storms this season.





If something does spin up off the SE coast, it would probably move North. But there is usually some activity this time of year in the Gulf and Caribbean. I am looking at the small wave though for development. Of all, I think it has the best chance.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Whatever the term is ..... the weather does seem to appear to be "El-Nino-ish!" It is acting strangely lately ... look at the similarities with 1992 vs. 2014. The EPac is behaving like 1992, in 2014 .. with a record amount of Pacific hurricanes.


may i suggest you go to the aussie met's sitehere
Quoting 668. StormTrackerScott:



As a result we should see a big high over the Pacific NW with a large trough across the midwest and east combined with a strong southern jet we should see some pretty strong Nor eastern riding up the eastern US with lots of snow & ice.
if I get lots of snow and ice mickeys ears will frost over in Disney
Quoting 663. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

yes only problem is all the heat is in places its not normally supposed to be


The global SST are warmer than during the peak of the huge 1998 El Nino, let's think about what that means for a moment.

I know this is far out, but...

In the GOM.
Quoting 599. WaterWitch11:



thank you for the first laugh of the day :)


I always start the day off with a laugh. This way I can spend the rest of the day to insult everybody.
I've never seen script errors on this site either. I'm on Macs at home and work, and usually use Safari. But for some reason AdBlock doesn't work in Safari on YouTube (I'm in Snow Leopard at home, I don't look at YouTube at work.), so I've been trying other browsers. No problems with Chrome here either. But Chrome doesn't let me make comments on YouTube, so lately I've tried Firefox. AdBlock works fine on YouTube and I can use the comments section... however, yesterday I came home from work to find that Firefox had crashed. First time I've had a browser crash in... forever! And the only window I'd had up in it was Wunderground. Dunno for sure if it was one of those script errors, because I didn't check it out to see what the problem had been. Odd.

Quoting 607. LongIslandBeaches:



They never appeared before the site switched to the new format. They used to appear almost 100% of the time I tried to load Dr. Master's blog. I could never tell why, and there were always multiple error messages. I usually just clicked "Stop script" until they quit popping up, and then I could read the blog and responses (albiet, without some imbedded material). My home lap top (HP, old, Windows Vista, Firefox), recently stopped popping up the error messages, with the exception of perhaps once a week or so. Acceptable, for me.

My work lap top (Macbook Pro, OS?, Safari) never pops up a script error.
Quoting 671. wunderkidcayman:


No no no no no

That's if Odile gets even close to the GOM

Edouard expected to recurve but to what extent well it's not going towards the US and another thing is whether or not it will be tropical at that point which goes 50/50 it might/it might not


I'm sure we remember this one

Quoting 669. Webberweather53:

On the other hand, posting information from skeptical science would be the equivalent (like it or not) to someone posting from WUWT, both websites are heavily biased, and will produce charts, data, and articles that satisfy only their own point of view...

That point of view would be malicious nonsense in the case of the site of the bully (WUWT) and the simple reality as done by SkS.
You said absolutely nothing. Shall we dismiss your point of view just because it is just your point of view? Let us never read but only shout.
I wonder about the 27" from the PWS too. I suspect that the wind may have jostled the gauge(tipping bucket) and caused the gauge to tip back and forth and read much higher than it probably was. Think that's plausible? It happens to my gauge that's attached to a fence post. If I slam the gate or accidentally hit the fence with my lawn mower it registers .01".