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Category 3 Odile the Strongest Hurricane on Record to Hit Baja

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:00 PM GMT on September 15, 2014

Destructive Hurricane Odile powered ashore at Cabo San Lucas on Mexico's Baja Peninsula near 12:45 am EDT Monday as a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds. Odile was the strongest hurricane on record to hit the Baja Peninsula, tied with Hurricane Olivia of 1967. An Air Force hurricane hunter plane was in Odile Sunday afternoon, and measured a surface pressure of 922 mb. This pressure puts Odile in pretty select company--only two other Eastern Pacific hurricanes have had lower pressures measured in them by the Hurricane Hunters (though a total of eleven Eastern Pacific hurricanes have had lower pressures, if we include satellite-estimated pressures.) The only major hurricane on record to affect Southern Baja was Hurricane Kiko of 1989, which moved ashore on the Gulf of California side of the peninsula just south of La Paz as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Odile approaching the tip of Mexico's Baja Peninsula, taken at approximately 4:30 pm EDT Sunday September 14, 2014. At the time, Odile was a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Last radar image of Hurricane Odile taken at 4:46 pm EDT Sunday September 14, 2014, before the radar failed. Image credit: Conagua.

Damage from Odile will be heavy
A Personal Weather Station in Santa Rosa, about 3 miles inland from the coastal city of San Jose del Cabo, recorded winds of 76 mph, gusting to 114 mph, between 11 - 11:30 pm local time Sunday night. The station measured 27.36" of rain, which I believe (and hope!) is erroneous. All other weather stations, including the official airport stations in San Jose del Cabo and Cabo San Lucas, failed before the eye of the storm hit the coast. Storm chaser Josh Morgerman of iCyclone weathered the storm in a hotel in Cabo San Lucas. His reports last night paint a picture of an extremely violent and dangerous hurricane landfall:

9:20 pm. Front doors of hotel blew out of their frames while I was on with The Weather Channel. We've now piled a mountain of furniture against the broken frames. Wind blowing into lobby. Building getting hammered. Screaming, roaring sounds. Whoa. Building just enveloped in raw power.

9:35 pm. We must be in inner eyewall. High-energy blasts of wind smashing building, finishing off doors. Violence. The mountain of furniture can't keep it out. Whoever said outer eyewall had the max winds was wrong-- inner *way* worse.

10 pm. Ears popping. Front entrance completely destroyed. Debris blowing by opening at great speeds. Car alarms going off. Rain and wind enveloping lobby.

10:10 pm. Sounds of trains going by, with whistling. Ears hurt from pressure. Large, thick plate-glass window just exploded-- didn't break, exploded. Interior walls vibrating. One of the worst cyclones I've ever been in. Frightening.

10:35 pm. It's calming. Yes, I think it's calming, praise the Lord. Barometer just dipping down to 949 mb now.

11:05 pm. Calm-- or what feels like calm when you're shell-shocked. Winds maybe 20 knots. Pressure 942.8 mb. People peeking outside, walking around. The front of the hotel looks like it was put through a blender.

11:25 am. Hissing sounds, and a low howl. A piece of tin tumbling across the parking lot. Pressure back up to 952 mb. The eye is passing and we're going back into the cyclone.

Midnight. CODE RED. At 11:46 pm, the backside of the eyewall hit-- no buildup-- just all of a sudden the howling and banging started up again. The hotel manager joked that it sounded like gunshots. Then at maybe midnight... BOOM!!!!! The entire glass wall of the lobby EXPLODED-- with glass, pieces of building, everything flying to the other end of the lobby. Like an explosion in an action movie. A hotel worker and I ducked under the reception counter-- I physically grabbed his head and pushed it under the counter. Glass was everywhere-- my leg gashed-- blood. We crawled into the office-- me, the worker, and the manager-- but the ceiling started to lift up. After five minutes of debate-- breathing hard like three trapped animals-- we made a run for it-- went running like HELL across the lobby-- which is now basically just OUTSIDE-- and made it to the stairwell and an interior hallway. Two nice women dressed my wound. I don't know where my cameradude, Steven, is. I need to find him. People are scared.

1 am. I found Steve-- we were tearfully reunited. I say tearfully because I was so happy to find him alive and OK in the chaos I got emotional. After roaming the flooded, dark hallways alone, I found him sheltered in a bathroom next to the lobby with two other guests. The lobby itself is a heap of wreckage. Steve was in the cloud of flying glass as that wall exploded. Like us, he had to run like hell-- and like me, he was bloodied. Steve saw me and my partners scampering like rats across the lobby earlier-- when we made our escape-- but I didn't hear his calling over the roar of the wind. What you see here is my leg-- dressed in a towel-- Steve's wound dressed in duct tape, and a shoe he fashioned out of duct tape (because he lost his). We're in an interior hall now. We're OK. I think the wind is quieting down. I think. Parts of the hotel are smashed beyond recognition.


Figure 3. The Cabo Villas Beach Cam was still sending images Monday morning after Odile smashed it to the ground. Image credit: Cabo Villas.

Forecast for Odile
Interaction with the rough terrain of the Baja Peninsula knocked Odile down to Category 2 strength with 110 mph winds by 8 am EDT Monday, and the storm will continue to steadily weaken as it moves along the peninsula and its circulation moves over cooler waters. Wind damage will continue to be a major concern through Monday evening, but by Tuesday, heavy rains will be the main concern. Odile's circulation is bringing up plenty of moisture from the Tropical Pacific and from Tropical Depression Sixteen to its southwest, and this moisture will create flooding rains over Northern Mexico and the Southwest U.S. beginning on Tuesday. The 06Z Monday run of the GFDL model put Central Arizona in the highest risk area for heavy precipitation from Odile's moisture.


Figure 4. Predicted rainfall amounts for the 5-day period beginning at 2 am EDT Monday September 15, 2014 from Hurricane Odile, from the GFDL hurricane model. Regions of Mexico along the Gulf of California are expected to receive 8 - 16", while a portion of Central Arizona is predicted to get 4 - 8". Image credit: NOAA/GFDL.

New tropical storm likely to form off the coast of Mexico this week
Our top models for predicting genesis of tropical cyclones are keen on developing a broad area of low pressure (Invest 97E) located about 500 miles south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. This system is predicted to follow a northwesterly path parallel to the Pacific coast of Mexico, and might be a danger to Baja early next week--though it is too early to know. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 50% and 70%, respectively.


Figure 5. Tracks of all Category 2 and stronger hurricanes to pass within 75 miles of the southern tip of Mexico's Baja Peninsula (light circle) between 1949 - 2013. Only one major hurricane--Hurricane Kiko of 1989--hit Baja during this time span. Data taken from NOAA/CSC's Historical Hurricane Tracks website.

An incredibly active year for major Eastern Pacific hurricanes
Odile's intensification into a Category 4 storm gives the Eastern Pacific east of 140°W seven major hurricanes so far this year. With the season typically only about two-thirds over by September 14, we have a decent chance of tying or beating the record of eight intense hurricanes in a season, set in 1992. The 2014 tally for the Eastern Pacific east of 140°W currently stands at 15 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 7 intense hurricanes. An average Eastern Pacific hurricane season sees 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes during the entire year. The records for total number of named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes were all set in 1992, with 25 named storms, 14 hurricanes, and 8 intense hurricanes. If we include the Central Pacific between 140°W and 180°W, these record tallies in 1992 were 28 named storms, 16 hurricanes, and 10 intense hurricanes, compared with the 2014 totals of 15 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 8 intense hurricanes (Genevieve did not become a hurricane and then major hurricane until it crossed from the Eastern Pacific into the Central Pacific.) What's really remarkable about the 2014 season is the proportion of named storms that have intensified to major hurricane strength: 8 of 15, or more than 50%. That's really difficult to do, particularly when the cold water wakes left behind by previous major hurricanes chill down the sea surface temperatures.

Since July, the Eastern Pacific has had ocean temperatures about 0.6°C (1°F) above average and wind shear about 20% below average. The region has been dominated by moist, rising air and low pressure, leading to above average vertical instability. All of these factors are favorable for an active hurricane season. The Atlantic and Eastern Pacific are usually out of phase with their hurricane seasons--when one is active, the other is inactive. This occurs because when the large-scale atmospheric circulation favors rising air and low pressure over one ocean basin, there must be high pressure and dry, sinking air elsewhere to compensate--which typically occurs over the neighboring ocean basin, suppressing hurricane activity there. See my September 11 post for detailed graphics on why the Eastern Pacific has been so favorable for hurricane formation this year.


Figure 6. Latest satellite image of Edouard.

Edouard becomes a Category 2 hurricane; not a threat to land
The strongest hurricane of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season so far is Hurricane Edouard, which intensified into a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds at 5 am EDT Monday. The previous strongest storm of 2014 was Hurricane Arthur, which topped out at sustained winds of 100 mph as it hit the Outer Banks of North Carolina in early July. Edouard continues chugging to the northwest at 15 mph over the Central Atlantic, and is not a threat to any land areas. Satellite images show that Edouard remains well-organized with a prominent eye. Edouard is likely to become the first major hurricane in two years in the Atlantic by Tuesday.

Quiet in the rest of the Atlantic
There is a new tropical wave predicted to come off the coast of Africa on Thursday that two of our reliable genesis models are predicting could develop near the Cape Verde Islands by Friday or Saturday. The GFS ensemble forecast is also highlighting the Southwest Caribbean waters near the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras may be an area to watch for development late this week. NHC is not yet highlighting either of these areas in their Monday morning Tropical Weather Outlook.


Figure 7. Tropical Storm Kalmaegi swirls to the south of the island of Taiwan at night, as seen from the International Space Station by astronaut Reid Wiseman ‏(@astro_reid) at 3 pm EDT September 14, 2014. At the time, Kalmaegi had just crossed the Philippines' Luzon Island as a Category 1 typhoon, and had weakened to a tropical storm with 70 mph winds. Hong Kong is the other bright patch of lights. Image credit: Reid Wiswman.

Typhoon Kalmaegi hits the Philippines
In the Western Pacific, Category 1 Typhoon Kalmaegi hit Luzon Island in the Philippines on Sunday as a Category 1 storm with 80 mph winds, but weakened to a tropical storm with 70 mph winds by the time it emerged into the South China Sea. Kalmaegi has re-intensified into a Category 1 typhoon with 75 mph winds, and is expected to make landfall near China's Hainan Island south of Hong Kong on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 487. Hurricanes101:



Ok so they did not upgrade it to a CAT 3, but they gave very good reasoning as to why. Are you seriously going to write a letter to the NHC? I mean really?

Chill out


Think about all the sea water he's disturbing...The poor molecules had like...no warning...
The NHC needs to stop ticking off the trolls.
#stoptheNHC2014 XP
Ex-93L



Quoting 498. JrWeathermanFL:

"Edouard has not strengthened further."

Oh yeah. And I'm gonna stop eating hamburgers.

Come on NHC.




Read below....

Dvorak intensity estimates remain a consensus T5.0/90 kt from TAFB and SAB, while UW-CIMSS CI values are around T5.6/105kt. A blend of these data is used to hold the initial intensity at 95 kt.


with a system out this far, they use satellite estimates as their major tool to forecast. One says it a major, the other 2 say its not. They went with the average and kept it just below major hurricane. I think it is very sound reasoning and its not like this is impacting land
Quoting 502. Grothar:
Ex-93L





Euro brings that to FL and merges it with a trough. Look at this moisture at day 10 across FL.

Quoting 498. JrWeathermanFL:

"Edouard has not strengthened further."

Oh yeah. And I'm gonna stop eating hamburgers.

Come on NHC.




I agree,if it has not strengthened by now , i doubt it ever will, but who i am to to argue, they are the experts!
Quoting 494. CaboKid:

So OK, this is my 2nd post to this board, please bare with me. I know there are a bunch of really savvy weather folks on this board and I have a question. Generally, is there some kind of record book on the longest time and distance that a Tropical hurricane has traveled after land fall? Hurricane Odile has been ashore for nearly 24 hours as of 7:00 PM MST or PDT and has traveled essentially straight up the Baja Peninsula 90 miles as Cat 3, stopping off to beat the feathers out of La Paz, then continuing another 170 miles 1/2 way as Cat 2 the rest of the way as a Cat 1. A total of 260 miles along some of the most rugged mountains on the planet. As soon as coming onshore Odile had to pass the 6800 foot high Sierra Laguna and now as a Cat 1 storm is moving along the very rugged 1500 Km long Sierra La Giganta, which will knock it down to a Tropical Storm by morning. My wife and I have had interest in CSL for almost 30 years, we have seen many powerful hurricanes approach the tip, only to be knocked down to Cat 1 or 2 before landfall. To me Odile has accomplished something, assuming mother nature has accomplishments, that is something I had been led to believe, was impossible! Between the high mountains and the cold Pacific few could get within 50 miles before their quick demise. So please tell me, how far, for how long, has any tropical hurricane traveled onshore?

Thanks,
CaboKid
not sure how far how long one truly does not know but ya there has been a change yes water is too warm abnormal therefore abnormal behavior can and will occur in weather
Quoting 503. Hurricanes101:



Read below....

Dvorak intensity estimates remain a consensus T5.0/90 kt from TAFB and SAB, while UW-CIMSS CI values are around T5.6/105kt. A blend of these data is used to hold the initial intensity at 95 kt.


with a system out this far, they use satellite estimates as their major tool to forecast. One says it a major, the other 2 say its not. They went with the average and kept it just below major hurricane. I think it is very sound reasoning and its not like this is impacting land


I see where they got that from, but land shouldn't be a factor in this. If it's barely a Cat 3, it still should be a CAt 3.

But I won't complain about this. We still got 24 more hours and Ed is a beautiful OTS storm as is.
508. silas
Evening all. I've been lurking occasionally but not commenting for the last couple weeks...been pretty busy. Thoughts and prayers out to those affected by Odile, hopefully the damage and death totals are lower than expected.

Anyway, I see that Edouard has been putting on a show today. No one (not even me) would have criticized the NHC if it had declared Edouard a major this advisory, but I also don't think it's fair to say that this was a bad call. Based on satellite, Edouard has basically remained steady in intensity for the past few hours. Its cloud tops haven't cooled any further and there's really not much evidence (other than appearance to untrained eyes) to support upping Edouard's winds this advisory.

We've waited two years, we can wait another 6 hours, right? =)

Just my two cents for today. Night all.
Quoting 508. silas:

Evening all. I've been lurking occasionally but not commenting for the last couple weeks...been pretty busy. Thoughts and prayers out to those affected by Odile, hopefully the damage and death totals are lower than expected.

Anyway, I see that Edouard has been putting on a show today. No one (not even me) would have criticized the NHC if it had declared Edouard a major this advisory, but I also don't think it's fair to say that this was a bad call. Based on satellite, Edouard has basically remained steady in intensity for the past few hours. Its cloud tops haven't cooled any further and there's really not much evidence (other than appearance to untrained eyes) to support upping Edouard's winds this advisory.

We've waited two years, we can wait another 6 hours, right? =)

Just my two cents for today. Night all.

its a big donut


lol
Quoting 507. JrWeathermanFL:



I see where they got that from, but land shouldn't be a factor in this. If it's barely a Cat 3, it still should be a CAt 3.

But I won't complain about this. We still got 24 more hours and Ed is a beautiful OTS storm as is.


land or not

90+90+105 = 285/3 = 95knots = 110mph

Thats why its not a major yet, it will be soon though
And here comes more rain from ex-16E. Honestly it looks like a tadpole swimming upstream.
505. stormpetrol

It has another 24-36 hours to strengthen further. Unless something unforeseen happens (it is 2014, so who knows lol), it will become a major hurricane
Shucks! Now watch the thunderstorms all start collapsing! ;)

I don't get why it's such a big deal that the NHC kept Ed as a category 2. They have a very legitimate reason for keeping it as such, and it'll more than likely be upgraded by the time we wake up tomorrow, unless, for whatever reason, it decides to weaken (and being that it is 2014 after all, I wouldn't completely rule that out.) :P
Quoting 514. Ameister12:

I don't get why It's such a big deal that the NHC kept Ed a category 2. They have a very legitimate reason for keeping it as such, and it'll more than likely be upgraded by the time we wake up tomorrow, unless, for whatever reason, it decides to weaken (and being that it is 2014 after all, I wouldn't completely rule that out.)



some are just antsy and want a major hurricane
Quoting 513. GatorWX:

Shucks! Now watch the thunderstorms all start collapsing! ;)




I wouldn't be surprised to see this become a 120-130 knot hurricane by morning. Should peak tomorrow.
Quoting 485. StormTrackerScott:


This El-Nino the one that is about to be declared finally in December and then kill of the 2015 Altantic hurricane season. Read it and weap.




Latest Southern Oscillation Index values

SOI values for 15 Sep 2014



Average for last 30 days

-10.0



Average for last 90 days

-7.9



Daily contribution to SOI calculation

-13.2
You have been saying this all Summer long!!!!
At the last frame in the radar everyone's been posting, Ed has become more symmetric than he's ever been, with his eye pretty mch squeaky clean. The shallower convection in the western portion is quickly cooling (the yellow darkening to orange, essentially) with the deepest starting to snake its way entirely around from the north... this better not somehow top out at 95 kts like Gordon did, as Eddy looks even better than Gordon did at peak. Although I have a feeling that Edouard will strengthen, as it appears he made the final hurdle already to become a major just after the advisory was issued. It's a coin toss as to whether he can attain category 4 status... but all he needs is one good strengthening period tomorrow and he easily could. Ophelia dd pretty much the same, I never assumed she could reach category 4 but she did at a pretty high latitude.

Anyway, go Edouard! Already the strongest since Sandy, and forecast to top out as the most powerful since Ophelia herself (on the SS scale, mind you, because Sandy really can't be beat in terms of how monstrous she was in every other way apart from winds).
Odile's west side seems to becoming more moist. Center is about to pop back out over water. Don't know if it can do anything in terms of re-organizing, but it may keep the rains going a bit longer...

Quoting 516. ILwthrfan:



I wouldn't be surprised to see this become a 120-130 knot hurricane by morning. Should peak tomorrow.


It's a nice looking storm presently. It's continuing to have a 'strengthening' appearance on satellite. I'm a little surprised they didn't upgrade it, but it's not a threat to any people not on a ship, so not too big of an issue. Big ole eye. Should look very nice on the second or third frame of full daylight.

Quoting 488. StormTrackerScott:
Looks like as we go into next summer a moderate to potentially strong El-Nino could be in place.

This is almost ridiculous.

You need to change your name to El-Nino SCOTT LOL
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


This El-Nino the one that is about to be declared finally in December and then kill of the 2015 Altantic hurricane season. Read it and weap.




Latest Southern Oscillation Index values

SOI values for 15 Sep 2014



Average for last 30 days

-10.0



Average for last 90 days

-7.9



Daily contribution to SOI calculation

-13.2

Scott, you need to learn patience. El Nio has not even been declared yet, so speaking towards it longevity is pointless at this juncture. Are the signs encouraging? With a dropping SOI, high AAM state, and building warm pool, yes. But who's to say this attempt doesn't falter like the one that just occurred three months ago, or the one in summer 2012?

2015 AHS may be dead or it might be the most active on record. Who knows in September 2014?

(And no, I don't want to see the CFS's or ECMWF's forecast)
Quoting 485. StormTrackerScott:



This El-Nino the one that is about to be declared finally in December and then kill of the 2015 Altantic hurricane season. Read it and weap.




Latest Southern Oscillation Index values

SOI values for 15 Sep 2014



Average for last 30 days

-10.0



Average for last 90 days

-7.9



Daily contribution to SOI calculation

-13.2

You have been saying the same since 2013 and look there is not an El Niño right now.
Quoting 473. sar2401:

The marina looks pretty much destroyed as expected, The airport has more damage than I thought it would have. I suspect the roof drains were overcome by the torrential rains and caused the roof to collapse. That's going to be a big problem getting people out of there unless they can use ferries to get them to La Paz. Most of the resorts really came though OK. Lots of vegetation damage and windows out but the buildings seem to have survived with no major damage. As usual, it's the poor barrios that will have suffered the most. Many of the homes are poorly constructed shacks that can't hold up to the winds and flooding they had last night. The resorts and other businesses will recover but the ordinary people are the ones who will really need the help. If you want to contribute the Mexican Red Cross (Cruz Roja) and Salvation Army (Ej�rcito de Salvaci�n) are the two most reliable agencies to get aid to the poor.


Agreed Sar, the resorts will recover ok. What they offer now is a little bit of insight in to just how bad it is in other areas. Areas where there is still no real information from, and certainly no pictures/video to show just how bad it is. I'm still not convinced that the resorts fared quite as well as you may think. No, they did not collapse for the most part, but that is to be expected. They are built to withstand a lot. Many of them have severe roof, water, window, and facade damage that will take time to rebuild. The fact that these fairly well engineered and constructed building took so much damage is the first glimpse at just how bad it will be in the other areas.

I am surprised that there has not been any aerial footage released today. When and if it is, I expect we will see a very large damage swath well up the peninsula. Ranging from wide spread wind damage to flooding and mud slides.

Point was, you don't have to convince me that over the coming days and months it will become clearer that this wasn't a "Cabo" storm. Just like Ike wasn't a Houston/Galveston storm. Just like Hugo wasn't a Charleston storm. Etc...
Quoting Ameister12:
I don't get why it's such a big deal that the NHC kept Ed as a category 2. They have a very legitimate reason for keeping it as such, and it'll more than likely be upgraded by the time we wake up tomorrow, unless, for whatever reason, it decides to weaken (and being that it is 2014 after all, I wouldn't completely rule that out.) :P

Because we haven't had a major hurricane since October 25, 2012 (that's 690 days)--the fourth longest streak in the historical record.

I've waited that long, another few hours won't bother me..
Quoting 499. Grothar:


He could be around for some time looks like a big circle.
Quoting 520. GatorWX:



It's a nice looking storm presently. It's continuing to have a 'strengthening' appearance on satellite. I'm a little surprised they didn't upgrade it, but it's not a threat to any people not on a ship, so not too big of an issue. Big ole eye. Should look very nice on the second or third frame of full daylight.




They will get it next advisory more than likely, cloud tops continue to cool and the west side of it is quickly catching up. Almost looks annular dare I say. It probably already is a 120 knot storm just by satellite presentation only, sure is a beautiful storm. It will be interesting to see just how north it makes it's turn east. If it could stay south of 35N while closing on the Azores. It could prolong a bit longer on down the road.
El-Nino does not mean no Hurricane seasons.
Quoting 525. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Because we haven't had a major hurricane since October 25, 2012 (that's 690 days)--the fourth longest streak in the historical record.

I've waited that long, another few hours won't bother me..
what if it don't make cat 3
Kalmaegi is massive. 70-80 knot storm.

06L/H/E/C2
Quoting 529. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
what if it don't make cat 3
The end of the world!!
Quoting 529. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

what if it don't make cat 3

Why would you say such a thing? Are you trying to cause a revolt?
Quoting 522. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Scott, you need to learn patience. El Ni�o has not even been declared yet, so speaking towards it longevity is pointless at this juncture. Are the signs encouraging? With a dropping SOI, high AAM state, and building warm pool, yes. But who's to say this attempt doesn't falter like the one that just occurred three months ago, or the one in summer 2012?

2015 AHS may be dead or it might be the most active on record. Who knows in September 2014?

(And no, I don't want to see the CFS's or ECMWF's forecast)


LOL! I bet you don't want to see the Euro of the CFS. Looks grim for next year's hurricane season
Quoting 529. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

what if it don't make cat 3


Just more evidence to back the conspiracy Keep. We're just waiting on someone at HAARP to press the button and poof! Remember that children's song, "He's got the whole world in his hands"? Yeah... :p
537. SLU
Quoting 525. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Because we haven't had a major hurricane since October 25, 2012 (that's 690 days)--the fourth longest streak in the historical record.

I've waited that long, another few hours won't bother me..


When and how long were the top 3?
Quoting 523. allancalderini:
You have been saying the same since 2013 and look there is not an El Niño right now.


The Atlantic Basin is in an El-Nino state right now. Just because the CPC hasn't declared it doesn't mean the atmosphere isn't in an El-Nino state. Infact nino 3.4 is above threshold now at .5C and it appears that this El-Nino will be declared in December and you guys can finally stop saying that this will falter like 2012.

All you have to do is look at the E-Pac wrs the Atlantic and you can tell that our basin is what you would expect in El-Nino hence my 5 to 7 storm forecast which looks to be verifying.
Looks like Olile may try to get a little stronger over the warm waters of the Gulf of Calif. That would be bad new for people of the S/W US.
I don't buy what some of the people on this blog are saying about the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season being a bust. We've had this season and last season be inactive. It would be very very hard to have three inactive seasons in a row. And next year is a year ending in "5". We know what happened in seasons at the midpoint of decades: Connie, Dianne (1955), Betsy (1965), Eloise (1975), Elena, Gloria, Kate, various landfalls (1985), Erin, Luis, Marylin, Opal, Roxanne, launched us in active phase (1995), and we know what happened in 2005.
Quoting 533. gulfbreeze:

The end of the world!!
No Gulfbreeze, the Detroit Lions have to win the super bowl along with 6 other specific events. #1 happened a long time ago, but they announced it recently. That sign was the electronic signal of thought to three people in China. Stay tuned, 5 to go.
Quoting 539. StormTrackerScott:

All you have to do is look at the E-Pac wrs the Atlantic and you can tell that our basin is what you would expect in El-Nino hence my 5 to 7 storm forecast which looks to be verifying.


You could make the same argument last year and this season isn't over yet.




I haven't checked, but I'd bet we've already exceeded last year's ACE a good bit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IvmeUStFvz8
Quoting 541. lobdelse81:
I don't buy what some of the people on this blog are saying about the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season being a bust. We've had this season and last season be inactive. It would be very very hard to have three inactive seasons in a row. And next year is a year ending in "5". We know what happened in seasons at the midpoint of decades: Connie, Dianne (1955), Betsy (1965), Eloise (1975), Elena, Gloria, Kate, various landfalls (1985), Erin, Luis, Marylin, Opal, Roxanne, launched us in active phase (1995), and we know what happened in 2005.



If El-Nino can end in early to mid summe then we could have a 1998 on our hands but that's a big IF.
Quoting 534. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Why would you say such a thing? Are you trying to cause a revolt?
I was just wundering
Quoting 535. StormTrackerScott:


LOL! I bet you don't want to see the Euro of the CFS. Looks grim for next year's hurricane season
Scott if models are not much good more than 3 days I don't think they will be very accurate a year out.
Quoting 547. gulfbreeze:
Scott if models are not much good more than 3 days I don't think they will be very accurate a year out.


There is going to be an El-Nino going into next summer thats a given. The question is will it end earlier enough to allow for a active August, September, October 2015. Come Spring we should know how long El-Nino will last. Again if it ends early I can see 1998 as a good analog if it stays then I can see 1914 as a analog.
And that's why I don't bet: 2013 -36, 2014 - 26. It's on the rise however and were only halfway through. It'll get there.
Quoting 543. GatorWX:



You could make the same argument last year and this season isn't over yet.




I haven't checked, but I'd bet we've already exceeded last year's ACE a good bit.


Nope, not yet at least, last yr had ~36 pts ACE, currently at ~28.5 pts & counting... w/ Edouard we're catching up in quite a hurry...
Quoting 537. SLU:



When and how long were the top 3?

1) September 11, 1971 to September 21, 1973 - 742 days
2) September 2, 1993 to August 14, 1995 - 712 days
3) September 21, 1967 to August 19, 1969 - 699 days
4) October 26, 2012 to September 15, 2014 - 690 days
5) November 22, 1985 to September 24, 1987 - 672 days
Quoting 549. GatorWX:
And that's why I don't bet: 2013 -36, 2014 - 26. It's on the rise however and were only halfway through. It'll get there.


El-Nino like conditions are already suffacating our basin I mean just look at all of this damm shear. Insane.

Closed for business.
Quoting 529. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

what if it don't make cat 3

There would be quite a few upset individuals on here.
Quoting 548. StormTrackerScott:


There is going to be an El-Nino going into next summer thats a given. The question is will it end earlier enough to allow for a active August, September, October 2015. Come Spring we should know how long El-Nino will last. Again if it ends early I can see 1998 as a good analog.
It may and I think we are coming to the end of an active period just my VHO looking back on history I think it was a every 100 year event just glad I got to see it!!
Quoting 554. gulfbreeze:
It may and I think we are coming to the end of an active period just my VHO looking back on history I think it was a every 100 year event just glad I got to see it!!


Me too.
Quoting 525. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I've waited that long, another few hours won't bother me..

Exactly. People are getting worked up even though it still has at least 24 hours to become a major hurricane.

It's pretty much destine to become a major, and unless it weakens before doing so, I won't be bothered.
Quoting 552. StormTrackerScott:



El-Nino like conditions are already suffacating our basin I mean just look at all of this damm shear. Insane.

Closed for business.



I agree it's not pretty out there, but...



Looks like it's begun feeling a tug to the right (n).
Quoting StormJunkie:


Agreed Sar, the resorts will recover ok. What they offer now is a little bit of insight in to just how bad it is in other areas. Areas where there is still no real information from, and certainly no pictures/video to show just how bad it is. I'm still not convinced that the resorts fared quite as well as you may think. No, they did not collapse for the most part, but that is to be expected. They are built to withstand a lot. Many of them have severe roof, water, window, and facade damage that will take time to rebuild. The fact that these fairly well engineered and constructed building took so much damage is the first glimpse at just how bad it will be in the other areas.

I am surprised that there has not been any aerial footage released today. When and if it is, I expect we will see a very large damage swath well up the peninsula. Ranging from wide spread wind damage to flooding and mud slides.

Point was, you don't have to convince me that over the coming days and months it will become clearer that this wasn't a "Cabo" storm. Just like Ike wasn't a Houston/Galveston storm. Just like Hugo wasn't a Charleston storm. Etc...
My concern was how well the engineering and construction in all these new resorts would really hold up. So far, they seem to have performed as designed. The biggest risk to life was in Cabo if any significant amount of those large hotels had suffered partial or total collapses. I'm sure some of the resorts will be constructive total losses but if they didn't kill or seriously injure anyone, it was exactly how they should have performed. There will be deaths in those places further north that didn't have good construction but nothing like the 10,000 to 20,000 that could have died in Cabo if things were different.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


El-Nino like conditions are already suffacating our basin I mean just look at all of this damm shear. Insane.

Closed for business.
Somehow Ed managed to break in though. We've had four hurricanes, which is two more than last year, and two more cat 2 and higher, which is two more than last year, when we didn't have this stealth El Ninio you keep talking about. 2014 hasn't been all that bad. It's the contrast to the Pacific, which has been all that good, that makes it look worse...plus we still have 45 days to go.
Quoting 556. Ameister12:


Exactly. People are getting worked up even though it still has at least 24 hours to become a major hurricane.

It's pretty much destine to become a major, and unless it weakens before doing so, I won't be bothered.
zap
06L/H/E/C2
Quoting 536. GatorWX:



Just more evidence to back the conspiracy Keep. We're just waiting on someone at HAARP to press the button and poof! Remember that children's song, "He's got the whole world in his hands"? Yeah... :p


Yes haven't you heard?! Its not God they are talking about in the song but the Barack Obama, he uses weather control and has the whole world in his hands, Obama is also in secret supreme chancellor of the illuminati council. Star Wars was was prophetic, the emperor is secretly devised parallel to President Obama taking over America(the rest of the world doesn't matter), and it must be true because I read on an image shared on facebook.
Quoting 558. sar2401:

My concern was how well the engineering and construction in all these new resorts would really hold up. So far, they seem to have performed as designed. The biggest risk to life was in Cabo if any significant amount of those large hotels had suffered partial or total collapses. I'm sure some of the resorts will be constructive total losses but if they didn't kill or seriously injure anyone, it was exactly how they should have performed. There will be deaths in those places further north that didn't have good construction but nothing like the 10,000 to 20,000 that could have died in Cabo if things were different.
It is Mexican territory.
565. JRRP
I think it may degrade in appearance just a bit as it begins to feel the shift in steering. Should improve once the more gradual bend n-nne-ne, etc. is established. IMO

Quoting 563. Jedkins01:



Yes haven't you heard?! Its not God they are talking about in the song but the Barack Obama, he uses weather control and has the whole world in his hands, Obama is also in secret supreme chancellor of the illuminati council. Star Wars was was prophetic, the emperor is secretly devised parallel to President Obama taking over America(the rest of the world doesn't matter), and it must be true because I read on an image shared on facebook.


That was great! el oh el!
568. SLU
Quoting 551. TropicalAnalystwx13:


1) September 11, 1971 to September 21, 1973 - 742 days
2) September 2, 1993 to August 14, 1995 - 712 days
3) September 21, 1967 to August 19, 1969 - 699 days
4) October 26, 2012 to September 15, 2014 - 690 days
5) November 22, 1985 to September 24, 1987 - 672 days



No wonder there's been so much frustration on the blog. Most of us have never tracked hurricanes during such a long MH drought.
Quoting 566. GatorWX:

oops
Quoting 566. GatorWX:

I think it may degrade in appearance just a bit as it begins to feel the shift in steering. Should improve once the more gradual bend n-nne-ne, etc. is established. IMO




You can see the shear increasing as it begins to get caught in the westerlies.
Quoting 496. StormTrackerScott:

Euro means business rainfall wise across FL the next 10 days.




Geeze, the Euro doesn't usually go the bullish that far out. However, keep in mind that far out into the forecast period involves a lot of climatology, but it doesn't mean that will happen. Climatology says we should have gotten a lot more rain in Florida by now, and more heavy rain events. But its been a consistently dry summer. That's the same reason both the GFS and the Euro a week ago were showing a major rain event in Central Florida ahead of this cold front, and well, now look at it. It's turned into a 6-12 inch event into maybe if we're lucky a 1-2 inch event with locally higher amounts.

The reason they backed off of this solution, is that models in the long term combined how the synoptic patterns looks at the moment and combine it with climatology. This is the time of year where climatologically, tropical disturbances often merge with stalled or slow moving fronts to produce heavy rain events down here.

But, that doesn't mean it will happen, just because it can. Being that its been a drier than average, and that we haven't gotten much this summer, I'd err on the side of caution and not give it much steam.

If this had been already a very efficient rainy season, I'd be more likely to believe it this far out.

I'm not saying it won't happen, but hopefully you've already learned from recently the long term model forecasts can completely change over time. Its likely the Euro will back off that solution as time draws near for the above reasons mentioned.

Again, its not that it will for sure, but its more likely. With that being said, be careful not to jump the gun too fast with forecasting.


11PM AST:
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.
Just did my 92nd blog update of the Atlantic season for those who are on here doing the night shift. Really the only game in town in the Atlantic right now is Edouard and I get the feeling this will be the strongest hurricane of the Atlantic season.
Odile not quite done yet... Last frames show deep convection trying to make a comeback.. Odile looks to want to track just East of her current projection

Quoting 576. yankees440:

Odile not quite done yet... Last frames show deep convection trying to make a comeback.. Odile looks to want to track just East of her current projection


Hi Yankee, will it make it to the GoC? Warm water in there.
Quoting TheEyeiscalm:


Its obviously going to get into the GOCalifornia. The question is how long will it stay in there and if it does longer than anticipated,how will Odile respond to that?

P.S.- Waters are quite water than average btw so past history might not be a great indicator of things.
Is Florida still on tap to receive two feet of rain?
Quoting 541. lobdelse81:

I don't buy what some of the people on this blog are saying about the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season being a bust. We've had this season and last season be inactive. It would be very very hard to have three inactive seasons in a row. And next year is a year ending in "5". We know what happened in seasons at the midpoint of decades: Connie, Dianne (1955), Betsy (1965), Eloise (1975), Elena, Gloria, Kate, various landfalls (1985), Erin, Luis, Marylin, Opal, Roxanne, launched us in active phase (1995), and we know what happened in 2005.


I find myself doubting those insane claims as well, but it appears you have an equally weak leg to stand on by citing gut feelings as basis for an active 2015 season.

The calendar years are meaningless.
Quoting 575. NCHurricane2009:

Just did my 92nd blog update of the Atlantic season for those who are on here doing the night shift. Really the only game in town in the Atlantic right now is Edouard and I get the feeling this will be the strongest hurricane of the Atlantic season.


Stop. I'm usually the one to rile things up for no good reason!

Keep out of it! :P
I guess it looks like the highlight of the 2014 Atlantic season will be watching Edouard.

I'm going on the outside chance it makes it to the Azores before going extratropical.

Hey at least it's something.
Quoting 579. Drakoen:

Is Florida still on tap to receive two feet of rain?
maybe 3 feet by morning check in
Quoting 408. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:






this is going to become if not already a very dangerous troubled place it may be many months before things resume something more normal

Considering these pictures that KOG put up here, I would like to add that having watched the Spanish national news last night and this morning at 8 am, that there is little coverage of this.
Bearing in mind that Mexico has very close links with Spain, I find this very odd indeed as this is obviously a major disaster and although there are probably not many news links coming out of the Cabos area, it is still very odd that they are not giving this more coverage.
Almost seems like a cover up, or maybe a play down due to the importance of tourism in the Baja area.
Quoting 462. Jedkins01:



We get them down here earlier than some think. The first front almost reliably arrives anywhere from the end of September to the end of October. Sure its not cold air, but we don't want cold air. Temps in the 80's with low humidity to me is Fall, and it still is relatively cooler and more comfortable than 4 months of 90's and 70's dew points.

I like heat and moist air more than cold dry air, but I wouldn't want to live in a place where its still hot and humid in the winter. But Florida does not have endless heat contrary to popular belief, we have really only about 4-5 months of it, the rest of the year its very comfortable. However, I like the hot season too because it brings the best thunderstorms and heavy rain.

Florida does have a real fall and winter, it just isn't nearly as cold as up north, which is a good thing. But it does get much cooler and drier compared to the summer reliably.

The subtropics are the best places to live, a season of mid latitude weather and a season of tropical weather. Warm weather most of the year but just enough touch of cold/winter so you get a refreshing change and don't lose appreciation for the warmth.

I could enjoyably live anywhere in the south and southeast, but I like Florida life the most.
Well said, Jedkins. It still amazes me how many people still think it is "always hot" in Florida, in this, the internet age. September cold fronts are not at all uncommon in Florida. And in years past I can clearly recall short periods in late September when it was actually chilly for a few days. This was in the 70s and 80s though and that was a colder time, a cooler weather cycle. If you look at the daily records for Tampa you will find some days in September when the low temperature was in the low 50s. Now picture the strong breeze that accompanies an unusually strong cold front for so early in the season along with some cold air clouds coming off the Gulf as the cool air rushes over the still very warm Gulf waters and you can see how it might seem chilly in the morning hours. And strong radiational cooling with such low humidity at night meant light jacket weather for sure. Early October has seen some really strong fronts in occasional years here. Check out the period from October 8 through the 13 in the year 2000 for a good example of this. I recall that the high temperature on October 9 that year was in the low 60s in Tampa. And the beginning of October is only two weeks away so we are definitely already in the time of the year when it is possible to get noticeably cooler and drier air in much of Florida.
I found this video on an earlier page of the blog, I think that anybody who might be playing down the effects of this storm should think again and this is only the tip of the peninsular, imagine events and scenes like this most of the way up Baja:-

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fpgOYP2wbF4

Link
Quoting 585. FLWaterFront:

Well said, Jedkins. It still amazes me how many people still think it is "always hot" in Florida, in this, the internet age. September cold fronts are not at all uncommon in Florida. And in years past I can clearly recall short periods in late September when it was actually chilly for a few days. This was in the 70s and 80s though and that was a colder time, a cooler weather cycle. If you look at the daily records for Tampa you will find some days in September when the low temperature was in the low 50s. Now picture the strong breeze that accompanies an unusually strong cold front for so early in the season along with some cold air clouds coming off the Gulf as the cool air rushes over the still very warm Gulf waters and you can see how it might seem chilly in the morning hours. And strong radiational cooling with such low humidity at night meant light jacket weather for sure. Early October has seen some really strong fronts in occasional years here. Check out the period from October 8 through the 13 in the year 2000 for a good example of this. I recall that the high temperature on October 9 that year was in the low 60s in Tampa. And the beginning of October is only two weeks away so we are definitely already in the time of the year when it is possible to get noticeably cooler and drier air in much of Florida.

Problem with your comment, and Jedkins as well, is that only a Floridian would call 80's "not hot" and 50-60's "cool".

If I extolled the pleasures of a New England winter walk, with temps in the mid-20's and snow falling briskly, would you buy into it? Not likely. So don't try to sell me on the virtues of Florida's climate. For folks like me, with northern European genetic backgrounds, Florida is hell with occasional remissions. Just as the climate in Massachusetts would almost certainly be for folks like you and Jedkins.

Gotta go take out the garbage. It's 55 right now. Might have to roll down my sleeves. Can't wait 'til nighttime temps are regularly in the 40s, so I can finally put away my shorts.

Different strokes for different folks. Let it go at that.
SHIPS text for Edouard kept him at 95 knots, so no major hurricane at 5am. That being said, NOAA42 AND NOAA49 will be leaving from Bermuda at 13z, so we'll then know for sure whether or not Edouard's become a major hurricane at the earliest 11am.

I don't see how it couldn't be one, though.

So basically, SAB ruins everything? :P

000
WTNT41 KNHC 160845
TCDAT1

HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
500 AM AST TUE SEP 16 2014

Convective cloud tops within Edouard's eyewall have occasionally
been as cold as about -75C, but the eye has actually cooled during
the past few hours. In addition, an 0614 UTC TRMM pass showed that
the hurricane's eyewall is partially open on the north side. The
Dvorak final-T estimate from TAFB increased to T5.5/102 kt but
decreased to T4.5/77 kt from SAB, while the CIMSS ADT is holding
steady near T5.6/105 kt. Due to the discrepancy between the various
estimates, the initial intensity is being held at 95 kt.

Analyses from UW-CIMSS and SHIPS diagnostics indicate that about 15
kt of southeasterly shear continues to affect Edouard. The shear
is expected to decrease between 12-36 hours, and since waters will
be warmer than 26C during that period, the hurricane still has a
chance to strengthen a bit. The intensity guidance has decreased,
with none of the usual hurricane models explicitly showing Edouard
reaching major hurricane strength. However, given the improving
environment, the NHC intensity forecast still allows for the
possibility of a major hurricane in the next 12-24 hours. After
that time, Edouard is expected to weaken quickly due to colder water
and increasing vertical shear. The forecast continues to show
Edouard becoming post-tropical by day 4, but the cyclone may begin
to struggle to maintain organized deep convection as early as day 3
while it's over 22C water.

The initial motion is north-northwestward, or 340/11 kt. Edouard
is located to the west of a mid-tropospheric high and will turn
northward and northeastward into the mid-latitude westerlies during
the next 24-36 hours. An eastward acceleration is expected by 48
hours, but then the cyclone is forecast to turn southeastward and
slow down on days 4 and 5 when it approaches the west side of a
deep-layer low between Portugal and the Azores. The track guidance
continues to be tightly clustered, and the updated NHC forecast
has only been nudged slightly westward during the first 48 hours to
be closer to the multi-model consensus TVCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 30.2N 57.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 31.7N 57.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 34.3N 56.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 37.1N 52.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 39.5N 48.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 41.3N 39.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 40.5N 35.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 21/0600Z 38.5N 32.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Berg
Well Edouard is really testing our patience here. Will he ever become a major hurricane? It would be surprising if not, but you never know. Pull it off already!

On the plus side, it is a wonderful sunny and mild day here in Austria and we've got yet another Eastern Pacific storm to track. I normally wouldn't be too excited about that, but I would really like to see the record for major hurricanes be broken this season. While the NHC only shows a 60kt peak at days 3 and 4 and non of the intensity guidance strengthens it beyond Cat 1 intensity at this time, the EPAC has proven numerous times this season that it is not interested in climatology.




Quoting 583. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

maybe 3 feet by morning check in

Florida Breaking News!!!

Orlando beachfront property values going through the roof as record rainfall raises local sea levels!

Details at the top of the hour!


Quoting 590. fabian171017:

Well Edouard is really testing our patience here. Will he ever become a major hurricane? It would be surprising if not, but you never know. Pull it off already!

On the plus side, it is a wonderful sunny and mild day here in Austria and we've got yet another Eastern Pacific storm to track. I normally wouldn't be too excited about that, but I would really like to see the record for major hurricanes be broken this season. While the NHC only shows a 60kt peak at days 3 and 4 and non of the intensity guidance strengthens it beyond Cat 1 intensity at this time, the EPAC has proven numerous times this season that it is not interested in climatology.






I'm rooting for Polo to become a major hurricane as well. Seems a bit unlikely in light of the easterly shear appearing in the GFS and ECMWF fields after 72 hours, but it may happen before then if rapid intensification can occur in the short-term.

Record Antarctic sea ice:

Antarctic sea ice covers 19.619 million sq km.
Maximum area recorded on September 12, 2014.
Third year in a row a record has been reached.
There has been a 1.5 per cent increase each decade since records began in 1979.
Increase believed to be linked to strong westerly winds.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
440 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE FL PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FACTOR IN THE SHORT TERM. THIS
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY
AND TOMORROW. FOR TODAY...A TRICKY FORECAST AS WE ARE ALREADY
SEEING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LEVY
COUNTY. GIVEN THE OVERALL COVERAGE ALREADY WENT WITH CATEGORICAL/LIKELY
POPS OVER THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE CWA. THE REST OF THE DAY IS
WHERE IT GETS TRICKY AS THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING HOW
FAR SOUTH THE RAIN WILL GET. AFTER INITIALLY FORECASTING LIKELY
POPS FROM TAMPA BAY NORTH FOR THE AFTERNOON DECIDED TO HOLD OFF
AND KEEP HIGH END SCATTERED COVERAGE GIVEN LESS THAN DESIRED
CONFIDENCE. THAT BEING SAID...RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE BECOME MORE
BULLISH ON THE SOUTHERNMOST EXTENT OF SHRA/TSTM COVERAGE SO MORE
CHANGES MAY BE MADE TO THE FORECAST BY DAYBREAK. SW FLORIDA RAIN
CHANCES NOT QUITE AS HIGH BEING FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HOWEVER SCT COVERAGE IS LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.
Morning all.

Analyses from UW-CIMSS and SHIPS diagnostics indicate that about 15
kt of southeasterly shear continues to affect Edouard. The shear
is expected to decrease between 12-36 hours, and since waters will
be warmer than 26C during that period, the hurricane still has a
chance to strengthen a bit. The intensity guidance has decreased,
with none of the usual hurricane models explicitly showing Edouard
reaching major hurricane strength. However, given the improving
environment, the NHC intensity forecast still allows for the
possibility of a major hurricane in the next 12-24 hours.


Morning all... seems Edouard still has a window of opportunity. In the EPac, I note we have Polo from the area S of Acapulco.... and Odile is still going strong... what are the chances of Odile strengthening over the Sea of Cortez? I assume it would be a low percentage...
Some good pictures on this twitter page. First images I have seen out of San Jose Del Cabo.





Quoting 595. BahaHurican:

Morning all.

Analyses from UW-CIMSS and SHIPS diagnostics indicate that about 15
kt of southeasterly shear continues to affect Edouard. The shear
is expected to decrease between 12-36 hours, and since waters will
be warmer than 26C during that period, the hurricane still has a
chance to strengthen a bit. The intensity guidance has decreased,
with none of the usual hurricane models explicitly showing Edouard
reaching major hurricane strength. However, given the improving
environment, the NHC intensity forecast still allows for the
possibility of a major hurricane in the next 12-24 hours.


Morning all... seems Edouard still has a window of opportunity. In the EPac, I note we have Polo from the area S of Acapulco.... and Odile is still going strong... what are the chances of Odile strengthening over the Sea of Cortez? I assume it would be a low percentage...


Probably not high with the models showing an increase in southwesterly shear as a mid-latitude shortwave moves to the north of the cyclone.
Quoting 513. GatorWX:

Shucks! Now watch the thunderstorms all start collapsing! ;)


They're not expecting it to be a major until 11 a.m. It has time to titivate a bit...
Hi everyone! My name's Tim and I'm a 20 year old weather enthusiast from st. Louis. I'm more of a storm Spotter than storm chaser. Anyway, I say it's time I joined this blog. That said, eduoard's still a category 2 as of the 4 a.m. advisory. Folks in the southwest need to be prepared for flash flooding these next couple of days as the moisture from odile moves towards that area. Stay safe, turn around, don't drown.
Morning everybody.
Quoting 588. CybrTeddy:

SHIPS text for Edouard kept him at 95 knots, so no major hurricane at 5am. That being said, NOAA42 AND NOAA49 will be leaving from Bermuda at 13z, so we'll then know for sure whether or not Edouard's become a major hurricane at the earliest 11am.

I don't see how it couldn't be one, though.




It does look like it's trying to be an annular hurricane, with only one large band to its west.
Sunrise over Hurricane Edouard.



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 16 SEP 2014 Time : 091500 UTC
Lat : 30:11:42 N Lon : 57:28:56 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 952.9mb/107.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.7 5.7 5.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 24 km

Center Temp : +11.8C Cloud Region Temp : -60.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 140km
- Environmental MSLP : 1016mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 40.0 degrees

************************************************* ***
CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
HURRICANE EDOUARD
Monday 15sep14 Time: 2049 UTC
Latitude: 28.04 Longitude: -56.48
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 21 [130]
-------------------------------------------------- ---------------
| Estimated MSLP: 956 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 101 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 8mb +/- 9kts )
-------------------------------------------------- ---------------
Storm is sub-sampled: Bias correction applied is 0 hPa
Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 3.45
Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 4.40
Channel 6 (~350 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 4.02
RMW: 25 km
RMW Source is: MW
Environmental Pressure: 1015 (TPC)
Satellite: NOAA-15
ATCF data for Month: 09 Day: 16 Time (UTC): 0000

For imagery, go to http://amsu.ssec.wisc.edu
For all comments and questions mailto:chrisv@ssec.wisc.edu
Looking at this, it's one now.

I better get a cat. 3 today.
San Jose Del Cabo...Images from that previous link.





Quoting StormJunkie:
San Jose Del Cabo...Images from that previous link.





Aw man, oh the humanity. :(
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. Rain forecasted for my part of Louisiana for the next couple of days.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: berry breakfast pizza, Cinnamon French Toast Casserole, Cheesecake Burritos with strawberry topping, omelets with cheese, mushrooms, peppers and dice ham or bacon, Canadian bacon, sausage links, cheesy grits and shrimp, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Tea or flavored cappuccinos, cinnamon, Irish cream, white chocolate caramel or French vanilla . Enjoy!
Gorgeous!
Quoting 612. hurricanes2018:


A NEW YELLOW X...
Quoting 611. Ameister12:

Gorgeous!

Look! A real CDO in the ATL!!!

LOL ....

Later guys, I'm late!
Quoting 609. aislinnpaps:

Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. Rain forecasted for my part of Louisiana for the next couple of days.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: berry breakfast pizza, Cinnamon French Toast Casserole, Cheesecake Burritos with strawberry topping, omelets with cheese, mushrooms, peppers and dice ham or bacon, Canadian bacon, sausage links, cheesy grits and shrimp, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Tea or flavored cappuccinos, cinnamon, Irish cream, white chocolate caramel or French vanilla . Enjoy!


All that food sounds really good right now. Thanks for making me hungry at quarter to 6 in the morning lol. Enjoy the rain. I'd enjoy the fall-like weather here if it weren't for my allergies! Those temperature swings trigger mine... one day it's in the 80s, the next it's around 60. As it goes in the midwest: "if you don't like the weather, wait a while, it'll change". Can I get my temps in the 80s back please? Pretty pretty pleeeeease?
Quoting Ameister12:
Gorgeous!
It's just to bad they didn't upgrade it. :(
both hugo and andrew our presidents were late in sending in the national guard. hugo st croix and andrew s florida. looters rampaged through the streets. oh i forgot bush jr.feel asleep at the wheel again in new orleans. same is happening in cabo
Quoting 606. Andrebrooks:


I better get a cat. 3 today.


Don't worry, you'll get your cat. 3 'cane. Probably by the 11 a.m. advisory. Just believe. :)
Quoting TimTheWxMan:


Don't worry, you'll get your cat. 3 'cane. Probably by the 11 a.m. advisory. Just believe. :)
Well the NHC is testing my patience, look at info above, that's supports cat. 3 right.
morning,




Latest microwave image shows that Edouard's eyewall is now closed.

I would be very surprised if Edouard is not upgraded at 11, but as of right now, it's the best looking non-major hurricane I've ever seen.
Quoting 619. Andrebrooks:

Well the NHC is testing my patience, look at info above, that's supports cat. 3 right.


It sure does, Andre, it sure does.
I got school in the morning, though I only have one class today (thank you college!). Might as well go back to sleep.... or try to. See y'all later. I'll be back early afternoon.
EstherD,

Living in Florida is a change from living up north. I grew up in the Chicago area and moved here in the 70s. Something in your anatomy changes over time and you deal with the heat better. The down side to that is that cold really hits you harder. All that being said, when the heat factor is 105-110 each day for a couple months on end, you spend about as much time outside as most midwesterners do in January.

When I travel up north at times during the summer, I can be out in the sun there at 90 degrees and not break a sweat, while everyone there is bothered by how hot it is.

I just looked at our forecast .... nothing over 90 predicted and nighttime lows are nudging 72 ... almost time to START growing tomatoes. Yes ... this does feel like some great weather coming, just around the corner. A lot of it is just what you get used to.



A 110mph hurricane
It's been so long since we've gotten to track one of these guys.

Quoting 489. win1gamegiantsplease:

Not a major hurricane yet, no way it won't be at 5 am


Self-serve crow
Quoting 617. islander101010:

both hugo and andrew our presidents were late in sending in the national guard. hugo st croix and andrew s florida. looters rampaged through the streets. oh i forgot bush jr.feel asleep at the wheel again in new orleans. same is happening in cabo

One major difference is that Mexico, even that part of Mexico, is not under US jurisdiction. So the US can't send in troops unless invited so to do. That's up to the Mexican government.
Quoting 621. Ameister12:

Latest microwave image shows that Edouard's eyewall is now closed.

I would be very surprised if Edouard is not upgraded at 11, but as of right now, it's the best looking non-major hurricane I've ever seen.
It's the best looking Atlantic hurricane I've seen since joining here. Of course, I joined in early 2012 so besides like Michael, there weren't very visually stunning hurricanes that year. Michael wasn't even that impressive, just the best I have seen since joining until now.
Quoting 608. Andrebrooks:

Aw man, oh the humanity. :(

Oh The Sporemanity!
Quoting 579. Drakoen:

Is Florida still on tap to receive two feet of rain?

What 24 inches?! There's no way that cn be right, can it?!
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:


A 110mph hurricane
it better be a 3 at 11 or another letter from me.
Quoting 62901IL:

What 24 inches?! There's no way that cn be right, can it?!


Here's what NOAA says for today with respect to Florida.

COASTAL SOUTHEAST AND FAR NORTHEAST FLORIDA

A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS RE-INTRODUCED ALONG COASTAL GA INTO FAR
NORTHEAST FL THIS PERIOD FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY TO
ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW
VALUES--- 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN---WILL PERSIST
THIS PERIOD IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHING ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO THE
COASTAL SOUTHEAST. WIDESPREAD SCATTERED CONVECTION LIKELY AGAIN
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FRONT IN A REGION OF ENHANCED UVVS FROM
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THIS AREA LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ISOLATED VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE FALLEN THE PAST TWO DAYS ALONG COASTAL
SECTIONS OF SC AND GA---WITH THIS POTENTIAL AGAIN POSSIBLE ALONG
COASTAL GA INTO FAR NORTHEAST FL. THE HI RES RUNS ARE MOST
EMPHATIC ABOUT HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS THESE AREAS---WITH
ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3-5" POSSIBLE.

ORAVEC

Quoting 62901IL:

What 24 inches?! There's no way that cn be right, can it?!


No. There is one blogger who predicts 3 feet of rain for FL every other week. Obviously just trolling so try to just brush over the posts. It does look rainy for FL the next 5-7 days, and according to this one would expect 2-3".



Also, the Nino 1+2 region has significantly cooled in recent months and is now negative.
Quoting 632. Andrebrooks:

it better be a 3 at 11 or another letter from me.


You'r not really sending letters are you...cause that's pretty stupid...
Enjoy that it's the best looking hurricane since probably

Quoting 629. wxchaser97:

It's the best looking Atlantic hurricane I've seen since joining here. Of course, I joined in early 2012 so besides like Michael, there weren't very visually stunning hurricanes that year. Michael wasn't even that impressive, just the best I have seen since joining until now.


My laptop background is Sandy at her widest expanse... perhaps centered just off North Carolina or slightly south if I remember correctly (seeing as I'm not on my laptop.) Sure, not a "great looking" classic cane, but my oh my how impressive it is. Every boot to Windows Vista (don't laugh) is still just a bit awe inspiring.
Accidental double post.
7 day rainfall estimates

Last time Edouard was the strongest storm of the Atlantic season the US saw two land falling hurricanes. We're halfway there.
Edouard is making me happy this morning :)



Convection obviously isn't as deep as most major hurricanes, but that's pretty standard for its latitude and it could still easily be 115-120mph right now. I would imagine they'll upgrade at 11AM.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Edouard is making me happy this morning :)



Convection obviously isn't as deep as most major hurricanes, but that's pretty standard for its latitude and it could still easily be 115-120mph right now. I would imagine they'll upgrade at 11AM.


Ophelia looked similar from a convective standpoint. We'll be getting a recon takeoff here in an hour-and-a-half from Bermuda, so maybe they'll get a few passes in before 11am?
Quoting 638. Sfloridacat5:

7 day rainfall estimates



Look at those totals over the SW. Wow. They can hardly handle two inches at a time. 6-10" is going to cause all sorts of problems. Odile looks to be moving back over water now in the Gulf of California, home of some of the warmest waters on the planet. I doubt it strengthens any due to continued land interaction and its inner core already being so disrupted, but it could at least maintain itself for most of the day.

Very dry in my neighborhood in South Fort Myers.
I think we picked up .02" from 92L (just enough to make the grass wet).

Only 1.54" of rain for the month in my weather station. That's way below normal for Sept. In August I picked up 13.0", which is just above normal for my area.
Good Morning!

Edouard is looking like our 1st CAT3 hurricane in the Atlantic. Very impressive CDO, and eye!

We now have "Polo" in the EPac ..... funny, the Atlantic "M" storm for 2014 is MARCO !!! Doubt we will make it that far in the list of named Atlantic storms, although the name, "Marco," has already been used many times in the past.

Thoughts are with residents of the Baja Peninsula, hope you survived powerful Hurricane Odile.

The 10th anniversary of Hurricane Ivan is September 16, 2014. The U.S. Central Gulf Coast was hit very hard, especially the area from Dauphin Island, AL, to Destin, FL. Ivan the Terrible lived up to his name!
Quoting 638. Sfloridacat5:

7 day rainfall estimates




While many are "Ahhhing" over a possible "major" in the Atl...Or amount of rain in Fl...Seems they are losing site of the the 11" forecast for parts of the Baja Pen, and just as surreal...The 8-9" predictions for the Arizona and New Mexico deserts. Never mind what has just taken place across almost the entire Baja Pen as far as once in a lifetime events go.
Got a bit over an inch of rain this morning (NW FL) and tons of thunder/lightning, gonna need a nap later. Looks like most of the action is headed toward Gainesville now.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Look at those totals over the SW. Wow. They can hardly handle two inches at a time. 6-10" is going to cause all sorts of problems. Odile looks to be moving back over water now in the Gulf of California, home of some of the warmest waters on the planet. I doubt it strengthens any due to continued land interaction and its inner core already being so disrupted, but it could at least maintain itself for most of the day.



Yep, that's two-three years worth of rain in a week for them.
And they flash flood with just small rain totals.
This is after the rains they got last week.


Too bad some of this heavy rain can't get over to the fires in Southern California.
I still can't believe that Masters quoted that idiot storm chaser. There should be a disclaimer of some kind like; "this is everything you should not do in a hurricane."I hope this is just his boss putting him up to it for ratings!
Thanks, man. One of my New Year's resolutions was: make others happy.

Oh, you're talking about the hurricane? Yeah, okay, sorry.... it's making me kind of happy as well.

Quoting 640. MAweatherboy1:

Edouard is making me happy this morning :)

Quoting 648. Pallis1:

I still can't believe that Masters quoted that idiot storm chaser. There should be a disclaimer of some kind like; "this is everything you should not do in a hurricane."I hope this is just his boss putting him up to it for ratings!


That "idiot" has been in many storms. It's what storm chasers do. And many provide valuable information, as this crew may have. Video yet to be seen. I am a bit disappointed that there media output seemed to stop once the storm was passed. Could be a technical problem. They could be out assisting. Who knows.

Whatever the case, I wouldn't throw stones in a glass house.
Quoting 631. 62901IL:


What 24 inches?! There's no way that cn be right, can it?!


His forecast from last week was 20-30 inches in the next two weeks. Those are historic totals, over half our annual rainfall.
Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 41m
Mini me , which is what I have dubbed what was 93L has nice cluster with it moving west. See if it survives
Looks like we may only get one more storm the rest of this season 2 if we are lucky as the SOI index and indicator of El-Nino is tanking. SOI has been at El-Nino levels for 6 weeks and this could explain the rather lack luster Peak of Hurricane Season. So if you take the SOI into account we can say that the atmosphere has been in an El-Nino state for about 6 weeks just in time for the peak of hurricane season.

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
SOI values for 16 Sep 2014

Average for last 30 days -10.4
Average for last 90 days -7.9
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -11.4

Monthly average SOI values
June -0.8
July -4.0
August -10.1
Quoting 645. StormJunkie:



While many are "Ahhhing" over a possible "major" in the Atl...Or amount of rain in Fl...Seems they are losing site of the the 11" forecast for parts of the Baja Pen, and just as surreal...The 8-9" predictions for the Arizona and New Mexico deserts. Never mind what has just taken place across almost the entire Baja Pen as far as once in a lifetime events go.


Looking like a pretty serious flood threat for the southwest. Hope they remember to turn around when they see flood waters.
Lol love the cmc! :P :P
SAB just came in with T5.0 at 1145 UTC, up from T4.5. Dunno what the TAFB is at, but if it's at 5.5 still that combined with Dvorak would probably suggest major hurricane.
Quoting 655. SFLWeatherman:


Looking good this morning Ed!.Look at that eye go!.
Quoting 606. Andrebrooks:


I better get a cat. 3 today.


You need a life. Geeesh!!!
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Looks like we may only get one more storm the rest of this season 2 if we are lucky as the SOI index and indicator of El-Nino is tanking. SOI has been at El-Nino levels for 6 weeks and this could explain the rather lack luster Peak of Hurricane Season. So if you take the SOI into account we can say that the atmosphere has been in an El-Nino state for about 6 weeks just in time for the peak of hurricane season.

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
SOI values for 16 Sep 2014

Average for last 30 days -10.4
Average for last 90 days -7.9
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -11.4

Monthly average SOI values
June -0.8
July -4.0
August -10.1


We are at the HEIGHT of the hurricane season. We will have at least 4-5 more named storms. Im sorry your prediction of 5-7 named storms just isnt gonna hold lol. Close, but no cigar.
661. SLU


Quoting 660. StormWx:



We are at the HEIGHT of the hurricane season. We will have at least 4-5 more named storms. Im sorry your prediction of 5-7 named storms just isnt gonna hold lol. Close, but no cigar.


The season is "shut down" and yet we have major in the Atlantic. LOL...
Quoting 661. SLU:




What a nice looking hurricane..at least the Atlantic has achieved something this year..
Quoting 653. StormTrackerScott:

Looks like we may only get one more storm the rest of this season 2 if we are lucky as the SOI index and indicator of El-Nino is tanking. SOI has been at El-Nino levels for 6 weeks and this could explain the rather lack luster Peak of Hurricane Season. So if you take the SOI into account we can say that the atmosphere has been in an El-Nino state for about 6 weeks just in time for the peak of hurricane season.

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
SOI values for 16 Sep 2014

Average for last 30 days -10.4
Average for last 90 days -7.9
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -11.4

Monthly average SOI values
June -0.8
July -4.0
August -10.1



How's the historic rain event you've been hyping looking for Florida?
Quoting 622. TimTheWxMan:



It sure does, Andre, it sure does.


Hi ya, "Tim".
Quoting luvtogolf:


The season is "shut down" and yet we have major in the Atlantic. LOL...


Throwing darts at the board and missing. I think the feeling of being 'right' is what is at stake here :o)
So looking at the longer range models on Edouard it looks like they have it doing a loop out in the Atlantic. What are the chances it manages to hold itself together long enough to complete that and work its way back into more favorable conditions then head back west?
Quoting driftwoodswfl:


How's the historic rain event you've been hyping looking for Florida?


Every week is an Historic rain event, didnt you know that?! FL is soon to be an island, or an underwater state.
No blue on this map.

670. SLU
Quoting 663. washingtonian115:

What a nice looking hurricane..at least the Atlantic has achieved something this year..


At least it's not as hapless as last year. It just couldn't get any worse than 2013.
Yes.

AL, 06, 2014091612, , BEST, 0, 306N, 576W, 100, 959, HU
Sometimes at 5.0 , you could get a cat. 3.
Quoting 671. MAweatherboy1:

Yes.

AL, 06, 2014091612, , BEST, 0, 306N, 576W, 100, 959, HU



BOOOO
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Yes.

AL, 06, 2014091612, , BEST, 0, 306N, 576W, 100, 959, HU
Finally. Thank you NHC
6-5-4-1 yes.
Quoting 667. Doss2k:

So looking at the longer range models on Edouard it looks like they have it doing a loop out in the Atlantic. What are the chances it manages to hold itself together long enough to complete that and work its way back into more favorable conditions then head back west?
Not trying to promote my own blog, since that's against the rules, but my 2015 hurricane forecast blog predicts exactly that scenario for one storm. Okay, not exactly, but close..

This hurricane Edward is one of the most remarkable storms ever, and I think it's got many more surprises in store. (*Spoiler alert: It will move toward Florida and bring three feet of rain.*)

I am rarely wrong about these things, although I still have no idea what an ULL is or what a TUTT is.
Good Morning.  We already knew going to this season that it would probably be a below-average year; no surprises on that front and if anyone "beats their chest" at the end of the season because they happened to correctly guess the actual number of storms, it would have been simply a lucky guess.  It's a mixed bag in terms of the "exact" numbers as noted below.  From USA Today from April 2014:

Top forecasters from Colorado State University predict a quiet 2014 Atlantic hurricane season, suggesting that nine tropical storms will form, but only three will become hurricanes. Gray's team was the first organization to issue seasonal hurricane forecasts back in 1984; this is the team's 31st forecast. This forecast is for the Atlantic basin, which includes the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. Klotzbach said that of the three predicted hurricanes, only one should be a major hurricane — category 3, 4 or 5 — with sustained wind speeds of 111 mph or greater. The Colorado State team's seasonal forecasts are a mixed bag: Since 2000, the team has forecast fewer than the actual number of hurricanes four times, forecast more five times and been almost right — within two hurricanes — five times, a USA TODAY analysis shows.





Looks like some of the 0 major hurricane forecasts are busted. :) ;)
What's the situation with that T-wave at about 18N, 52W? It's the one that trailed Edouard-to-be off of Africa, right?

It seems like it's in an area of moderate shear and will probably stay like that for a while, though the shear just north of the Caribbean islands has been on a downward trend as of late. It'll definitely have access to some good moisture.
Quoting 671. MAweatherboy1:

Yes.

AL, 06, 2014091612, , BEST, 0, 306N, 576W, 100, 959, HU

I should note though, this shouldn't be taken as final. Recon is heading out to investigate Edouard so whatever they find should be the 11AM intensity. So it could be a little stronger than indicated, or it could still be a Cat 2.
Edouard will be a Cat 3 at the 11 am advisory. Tropical Tidbits already has it at that strength.
couple wks ago posted that 5 sentinel chickens had tested positive for west nile virus. yesterday it was announced that we now have our first verified human case. careful out there. i believe only the fresh water mosquitos carry the deadly virus. the salt water variety bite bad but that the extent. e cen florida
Quoting 636. LongIslandBeaches:



My laptop background is Sandy at her widest expanse... perhaps centered just off North Carolina or slightly south if I remember correctly (seeing as I'm not on my laptop.) Sure, not a "great looking" classic cane, but my oh my how impressive it is. Every boot to Windows Vista (don't laugh) is still just a bit awe inspiring.


Wow, vista will actually boot?
i am starting to see the parallels between this hurricane season and the 1997 season. Both were El Nino years, both featured early landfalling US hurricanes: Danny ('97) and Arthur this year. Both are almost neck-and-neck by this point in the season: Edouard a cat3, Erika ('97) also was a cat3 around this time of year, and both had almost the same activity by this point in the season: 5-3-1 (1997) vs 5-4-1 this year. and if we get an El Nino develop in the fall and winter months, since they typically last about 6-8 months (fading El Nino by next summer), maybe this means that next hurricane season in 2015 we will have a 1998 version of a season.
Don't feed the trolls, they will beg for the scraps all the time after
Quoting 681. MAweatherboy1:


I should note though, this shouldn't be taken as final. Recon is heading out to investigate Edouard so whatever they find should be the 11AM intensity. So it could be a little stronger than indicated, or it could still be a Cat 2.
who knows, could be a 70 mph st with dry air in the middle masquerading as an eye.
Africa and the Central Atlantic: no guarantee that the wave over the Continent will hold together by the time it emerges from the coast in about 3-4 days.
Quoting 685. lobdelse81:
i am starting to see the parallels between this hurricane season and the 1997 season. Both were El Nino years, both featured early landfalling US hurricanes: Danny ('97) and Arthur this year. Both are almost neck-and-neck by this point in the season: Edouard a cat3, Erika ('97) also was a cat3 around this time of year, and both had almost the same activity by this point in the season: 5-3-1 (1997) vs 5-4-1 this year. and if we get an El Nino develop in the fall and winter months, since they typically last about 6-8 months (fading El Nino by next summer), maybe this means that next hurricane season in 2015 we will have a 1998 version of a season.


This is an El Nino year?
I thought the GFS showed some cold air coming down around the 24th? Hmmmmm.

Edouard really getting his groove on at higher latitude. Will we see the subtropical/hybrid storm from hell this fall/early winter? Food for thought.

Would be interesting if Edouard does a loop back into the MDR. Even more interesting if it hasn't yet transitioned. Would be an interesting event to witness.

Quoting 669. StormWx:

No blue on this map.


Quoting 690. rmbjoe1954:



This is an El Nino year?


'97 was one of the strongest EL Nino years on record and as you are suggesting - we do not have an El Nino declared. There are signs that we may get one but nothing is set in stone. It's a wait and see.
last two yrs mexico has gotten spanked for natural disasters mexico is high up on the list
Interesting comparson.

1997 also had freak late October blizzard in Denver which then went offshore SE coast and bombed into an enormous ocean storm (no impact to land CONUS). Also I remember winter 1997-1998 as being fairly mild in the northeast (where I was living at the time).

Quoting 685. lobdelse81:

i am starting to see the parallels between this hurricane season and the 1997 season. Both were El Nino years, both featured early landfalling US hurricanes: Danny ('97) and Arthur this year. Both are almost neck-and-neck by this point in the season: Edouard a cat3, Erika ('97) also was a cat3 around this time of year, and both had almost the same activity by this point in the season: 5-3-1 (1997) vs 5-4-1 this year. and if we get an El Nino develop in the fall and winter months, since they typically last about 6-8 months (fading El Nino by next summer), maybe this means that next hurricane season in 2015 we will have a 1998 version of a season.
Boring as usual. Not a single chance of decent weather this year...

TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING 50W THIS
MORNING WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI. WHILE
WAVE IS GENERATING QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION RIGHT NOW AND MAY
HAVE A WEAK LOW PRES AREA ACCOMPANYING IT...THE WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO ENCOUNTER MORE HOSTILE CONDITIONS OVR THE NE CARIBBEAN THU AND
FRI AS IT BECOMES UNDER CONVERGENT UPPER FLOW BETWEEN
RETROGRESSING CNTRL ATLC TUTT AND UPPER RIDGE OVR THE CNTRL
CARIBBEAN. DRYING IS EXPECTED OVR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
Tropical Storm Polo in the E-Pac; 16th Storm of the E-Pac Season....................

Quoting 683. islander101010:

couple wks ago posted that 5 sentinel chickens had tested positive for west nile virus. yesterday it was announced that we now have our first verified human case. careful out there. i believe only the fresh water mosquitos carry the deadly virus. the salt water variety bite bad but that the extent. e cen florida


We've had 25 cases with 3 deaths in Mississippi this year. Had 45 cases with 5 deaths in 2013.
Of course it's moving away from the coast.....
Quoting 695. CaribBoy:

Boring as usual. Not a single chance of decent weather this year..

What is "decent" weather? I believe you've been impacted by a couple of tropical systems that moved through the NE Caribbean.
Quoting 677. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning.  We already knew going to this season that it would probably be a below-average year; no surprises on that front and if anyone "beats their chest" at the end of the season because they happened to correctly guess the actual number of storms, it would have been simply a lucky guess.  It's a mixed bag in terms of the "exact" numbers as noted below.  From USA Today from April 2014:

Top forecasters from Colorado State University predict a quiet 2014 Atlantic hurricane season, suggesting that nine tropical storms will form, but only three will become hurricanes. Gray's team was the first organization to issue seasonal hurricane forecasts back in 1984; this is the team's 31st forecast. This forecast is for the Atlantic basin, which includes the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. Klotzbach said that of the three predicted hurricanes, only one should be a major hurricane — category 3, 4 or 5 — with sustained wind speeds of 111 mph or greater. The Colorado State team's seasonal forecasts are a mixed bag: Since 2000, the team has forecast fewer than the actual number of hurricanes four times, forecast more five times and been almost right — within two hurricanes — five times, a USA TODAY analysis shows.








LOL, within two hurricanes? Seems to me one of those two the prediction is off by could be one that does the most damage. That's like saying a MLB player could be in the Hall of Fame and was around a .300 hitter, but was only off by a 100 points or so.
Quoting 656. SFLWeatherman:

Lol love the cmc! :P :P


So a possible Gulf system coming from the Caribbean is still in the cards?
Quoting 656. SFLWeatherman:

Lol love the cmc! :P :P


Local forecast guidance seems to think we're going to be high and dry during that period of time.
Link
Interesting comparson.

1997 also had freak late October blizzard in Denver which then went offshore SE coast and bombed into an enormous ocean storm (no impact to land CONUS). Also I remember winter 1997-1998 as being fairly mild in the northeast (where I was living at the time).

Quoting 685. lobdelse81:

i am starting to see the parallels between this hurricane season and the 1997 season. Both were El Nino years, both featured early landfalling US hurricanes: Danny ('97) and Arthur this year. Both are almost neck-and-neck by this point in the season: Edouard a cat3, Erika ('97) also was a cat3 around this time of year, and both had almost the same activity by this point in the season: 5-3-1 (1997) vs 5-4-1 this year. and if we get an El Nino develop in the fall and winter months, since they typically last about 6-8 months (fading El Nino by next summer), maybe this means that next hurricane season in 2015 we will have a 1998 version of a season.
ehhhhh....looks like it might be another Karen situation with these fronts/troughs that pull a system north but at the same time just annihilate it with dry air.

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
941 am EDT Tue Sep 16 2014

Prev discussion [240 am edt]...

Short term [tonight through thursday]...

The upper level pattern will continue to amplify with the trough
digging down the eastern Seaboard. This will bring much drier air
to the region as the deep layer moisture gets shunted southward. At
the surface, the cold front will have pushed well to the south of
our area by Thursday. Pops will be tapered lower end chance
northwest zones to good chance for the southeast Big Bend tonight.
Then will keep slight to chance pops mainly over the southeast Big
Bend for Wednesday with no mention of pops on Thursday. Despite
the passage of a cold front, Max temps will near to just above
seasonal levels each day. Min temps will drop into the mid to upper
60s most inland areas Wednesday night.



Long term [thursday night through tuesday]...

Drier air in the wake of the upper level trough will dominate the
first half of the period. Highs are expected to range from the mid
80s to near 90 with lows in the mid to upper 60s. Late in the
period, another front may move in from the northwest with a
slight increase in pops, but nothing significant is currently
expected.
Ex 93L I believe.

Quoting 695. CaribBoy:

Boring as usual. Not a single chance of decent weather this year...

TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING 50W THIS
MORNING WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI. WHILE
WAVE IS GENERATING QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION RIGHT NOW AND MAY
HAVE A WEAK LOW PRES AREA ACCOMPANYING IT...THE WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO ENCOUNTER MORE HOSTILE CONDITIONS OVR THE NE CARIBBEAN THU AND
FRI AS IT BECOMES UNDER CONVERGENT UPPER FLOW BETWEEN
RETROGRESSING CNTRL ATLC TUTT AND UPPER RIDGE OVR THE CNTRL
CARIBBEAN. DRYING IS EXPECTED OVR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
The embedding feature has been disabled for this video, but here's a really good documentary that recently surfaced on Youtube for the 10th anniversary of Hurricane Ivan (today).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-BWN7LtyGi8&list= LLciYcDU9ZAahts9-NoVo-sQ&index=25
Quoting 685. lobdelse81:

i am starting to see the parallels between this hurricane season and the 1997 season. Both were El Nino years, both featured early landfalling US hurricanes: Danny ('97) and Arthur this year. Both are almost neck-and-neck by this point in the season: Edouard a cat3, Erika ('97) also was a cat3 around this time of year, and both had almost the same activity by this point in the season: 5-3-1 (1997) vs 5-4-1 this year. and if we get an El Nino develop in the fall and winter months, since they typically last about 6-8 months (fading El Nino by next summer), maybe this means that next hurricane season in 2015 we will have a 1998 version of a season.


An El Nino hurricane season one yr does not necessarily mean the next yr will be active. Sure 1998 was active following the 1997-98 super El Nino, but the set of circumstances that are laid before us differ significant this is due in large part to the background ENSO states in the several years preceding 1998 (1990-94 in particular, w/ no La Nina in 5 yrs) was favorable for the AMO to spike in the mid-late 1990s, while we have seen a barrage of la ninas since the mid-late 2000s, that have effectively through modulation of the subtropical jet & even oceanic currents to an extent led to a faltering AMO. Additionally, this El Nino may be a multi yr event based on the TPQDO, ONI behavior preceding this current time, and we may have to deal with El Nino yet again next season. I'll also mention that even if we see an El Nino, or even a multi yr event (Relative spikes in hurricane activity following multi yr warm events seems to have the greatest effect on seasons within the -AMO), that doesn't mean the following hurricane seasons are going to be active, especially when the inter-decadal background ENSO state & IPO (Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation) favor increasing duration & intensity of La Ninas, as was the case during the 1960s & 1970s...

Seasons like 1970, 1973, 1977, & 1983 are a few good examples...(1982-83 El Nino was already fading in late spring & summer, although lingering impacts were certainly ongoing at the time)

I first noted even @ first glance of the extended MEI going back to 1871 that there appeared to variance in La Ninas that operated on timescales independent of ENSO & the PDO... ~17-18 yrs, suggesting variability of the recharge-discharge oscillator theory which attempts to explain the quasi-oscillatory behavior of ENSO that operates on frequencies which may serve as an intermediary between ENSO & PDO...
I also noticed there was in this period of approximately 15-20 yrs or so, Ninas became increasingly more powerful, with each period ending abruptly with a multi yr warm ENSO event...




I performed an analysis on the return period of La Ninas based on ONI, & found a spectral peak of 15-20 yrs, in between that of ENSO (4-7 yrs) & PDO (>30 yrs) & in line with the aforementioned visual observations I made in accordance with MEI since 1871...
!!!!!!!!!!!, this modify comment feature is giving me a headache. I'll have changed the comment and then it will reload and still be the same or just all whacked up.
712. MahFL
Quoting 528. gulfbreeze:

El-Nino does not mean no Hurricane seasons.

You mean no hurricane hurricane seasons ? Hurricane season will always exist unless the tropics freeze over, which might happen one day....
Quoting 656. SFLWeatherman:

Lol love the cmc! :P :P



The CMC has been trying to take out the Gulf Coast for months now.
for those that are interested....here is the explanation of the SOI.....i'd love for someone to explain to me...how the SOI itself affects the atlantic hurricane season.....

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is designed to measure the strength and phase of the Southern Oscillation. The SOI is calculated using departures from normal in the surface air pressure difference between Tahiti, French Polynesia and Darwin, Australia. These stations are used because of their long data records.
Going to be some pretty good wave action on the SE coast Wednesday and Thursday. 5 feet at 15 sec in Central Florida. Finally some energy to ride! And then a Nor'eastern for the weekend, beginning to feel like the fall for us surfers.
Quoting 713. ncstorm:




thats beautiful. Swells on the way...
Quoting 717. waveRoller:



thats beautiful. Swells on the way...


fairly decent looking hurry cane
Heading to the GOM? LOL

Quoting 714. Drakoen:



The CMC has been trying to take out the Gulf Coast for months now.


It's tried to wash the Carolinas off the map every week it seems like.
most likely a bunch of closeouts this swell need more north angle e cen fl.
US National Weather Service Wilmington NC
3 mins · Edited ·

15 years ago today, Hurricane Floyd made an impressionable impact as it hit the Carolina coast. Since 1871, it goes down in history as the most powerful tropical storm to ever directly strike Wilmington, with the lowest barometric pressure of 959.7 millibars. Learn more here:



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Edouard, located several hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda.

1. A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on
Wednesday and produce an area of low pressure over the far eastern
Atlantic. Conditions appear conducive for some development of this
system by late this week while it moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Blake
Quoting 722. ncstorm:
US National Weather Service Wilmington NC
3 mins · Edited ·

15 years ago today, Hurricane Floyd made an impressionable impact as it hit the Carolina coast. Since 1871, it goes down in history as the most powerful tropical storm to ever directly strike Wilmington, with the lowest barometric pressure of 959.7 millibars. Learn more here:





Geez makes me feel old to think Floyd was 15 years ago and I guess that makes Fran 18 years now.
Quoting 715. ricderr:

for those that are interested....here is the explanation of the SOI.....i'd love for someone to explain to me...how the SOI itself affects the atlantic hurricane season.....

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is designed to measure the strength and phase of the Southern Oscillation. The SOI is calculated using departures from normal in the surface air pressure difference between Tahiti, French Polynesia and Darwin, Australia. These stations are used because of their long data records.



What are the Southern Oscillation and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)?

The fluctuations in ocean temperatures during El Nino and La Nina are accompanied by even larger-scale fluctuations in air pressure between the western and eastern tropical Pacific known as the Southern Oscillation.

During El Nino higher than average air pressure covers Indonesia and the western tropical Pacific and below-average air pressure covers the eastern tropical Pacific. These pressure departures are reversed during La Nina, which features below-average air pressure over Indonesia and the western tropical Pacific and above-average air pressure over the eastern tropical Pacific.
Quoting 698. ncstorm:

Interesting to note but the 12z Euro doesn't have Eduoard doing a loop but actually going backwards..




Is the transition to a post-tropical cyclone shown at day 4 necessarily the end for Edouard? The possible track with the turn to the SW somewhat reminds me of Nadine in 2012 so could Edouard regenerate at some point should that SW-motion materialise? Nadine was probably the most interesting cyclone to follow in the past few years:

CMC see's panhandle storm...GFS see's a south florida storm....time to watch the gulf..........................
Ed throwing me fun swell. :-) Tomorrow probably the peak day.

Quoting 713. ncstorm:


Quoting 715. ricderr:

for those that are interested....here is the explanation of the SOI.....i'd love for someone to explain to me...how the SOI itself affects the atlantic hurricane season.....

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is designed to measure the strength and phase of the Southern Oscillation. The SOI is calculated using departures from normal in the surface air pressure difference between Tahiti, French Polynesia and Darwin, Australia. These stations are used because of their long data records.

The SOI is linked to El Niño. The pressure difference between the two stations reflects the wind pattern -- when Tahiti is higher, the winds are the Trades, east to west. When the pressure at Darwin is higher it would seem to induce a west wind burst, which would tend to push the warm water pool around Indonesia toward the Eastern Pacific, thus setting up the El Niño conditions. El Niño puts a damper on the Atlantic hurricane activity, I assume partly at least by stifling the Atlantic Trades which bring the waves from Africa. Or, I dunno :-)
Quoting 730. HaoleboySurfEC:

Ed throwing me fun swell. :-) Tomorrow probably the peak day.




Winds are mostly light and offshore up the ecoast. Should be a nice, clean groundswell.
SFMR has about 97 knots, pressures about 952mb on that first pass into Edouard. I think that'll be good enough to upgrade to major hurricane status.
ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 16 2014

...EDOUARD BECOMES THE FIRST MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...
..EDOUARD BECOMES THE FIRST MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...
11:00 AM AST Tue Sep 16
Location: 31.1°N 57.8°W
Moving: NNW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 955 mb
Max sustained: 115 mph
Quoting 725. Doss2k:



Geez makes me feel old to think Floyd was 15 years ago and I guess that makes Fran 18 years now.


Fran was worse than Floyd where I was at the time (High Point) but being a kid I don't remember much of Fran's aftermath besides what it did to our neighborhood. Floyd I remember seeing donation boxes everywhere.

The church we attended had groups that went to the plains to tear down homes for rebuild. They had to wear insoles in their boots because the water stripped so much floor out of the homes that nails were sticking out like crazy. Also heard about how snakes and mosquitoes were rampant, even one story about finding small gators (which is less common inland especially when floods from hurricanes wash them to the sound/beaches).
Quoting 737. Grothar:

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 16 2014

...EDOUARD BECOMES THE FIRST MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...



Let the blog rejoice, the Blog Prozac has arrived! ;)
Quoting 669. StormWx:

No blue on this map.




They are out to lunch! The GFS and Euro have a deep trough that'll cut-off over the East-sending a cold front through Central Florida!!!
A little easterly component hanging around, so I may have to go to a little more sheltered break than Wrightsville, which is my go to break in the area. Something to ride :-)

Quoting 732. GatorWX:



Winds are mostly light and offshore up the ecoast. Should be a nice, clean groundswell.
Quoting 739. win1gamegiantsplease:


Fran was worse than Floyd where I was at the time (High Point) but being a kid I don't remember much of Fran's aftermath besides what it did to our neighborhood. Floyd I remember seeing donation boxes everywhere.

The church we attended had groups that went to the plains to tear down homes for rebuild. They had to wear insoles in their boots because the water stripped so much floor out of the homes that nails were sticking out like crazy. Also heard about how snakes and mosquitoes were rampant, even one story about finding small gators (which is less common inland especially when floods from hurricanes wash them to the sound/beaches).


True I was in Goldsboro for Fran and the eye went right by us there. That was a long next summer of chopping wood from all the fallen trees. I was here in Raleigh for Floyd which mostly affected the eastern part of the state I dont even remember it raining here, it was a very distinct line between nice sunny weather and the nasty stuff east of I-95 basically.
Quoting 729. LargoFl:

CMC see's panhandle storm...GFS see's a south florida storm....time to watch the gulf..........................


Now if only that was happening in January...
Quoting 719. ncstorm:

Heading to the GOM? LOL




Nope! Comin' to me! lol
Quoting 741. weatherbro:



They are out to lunch! The GFS and Euro have a deep trough that'll cut-off over the East-sending a cold front through Central Florida!!!



000
FXUS62 KMLB 160803
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
403 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014
FRI-MON...
NO SIG COOL AIR ADVECTION AS THE FRONT HAS BEEN MEANDERING OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. FURTHERMORE...WITH SFC/LOW LVL
WINDS SHIFTING ONSHORE...OCEAN MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR QUICKLY.
MAX/MIN TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVIATE FROM CLIMO AVGS BY MORE THAN
3F DEG.

Quoting 740. GatorWX:



Let the blog rejoice, the Blog Prozac has arrived! ;)


Not the best I have ever seen, but it is the first since 2012, so beggars can't be choosers.

I have really enjoyed watching Edouard "grow up" from a tropical wave to a full fledged hurricane! A very classic looking storm and (at this point) no danger to any land mass. Now this is the whole reason for this blog...to watch, enjoy, learn and breathe a sigh of relief that nothing is destroyed and no one is hurt or killed.
Odile is still quite powerful..

TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Microwave data earlier today indicated that the center of
Polo was to the north of the main convection due to moderate
northeasterly shear. Since that time, the thunderstorm
activity has increased near the center despite the shear, but
the cloud pattern is still somewhat disrupted. Dvorak intensity
numbers support an initial intensity of 35 kt. The ocean is plenty
warm in that area, and with the shear expected to decrease, the NHC
forecast calls for strengthening, making Polo a hurricane in about
48 hours. This is in good agreement with the intensity consensus
ICON.

Polo is moving toward the northwest or 310 degrees at about 10
kt. The flow around a mid-level ridge over the southwestern
United States and northern Mexico is controlling the track of
Polo. This ridge is forecast to persist, keeping Polo on a general
northwestward track for the next 3 to 4 days. The ECMWF
model forecasts the ridge to weaken faster than the GFS, bringing
the center of the storm closer to the coast. At this time, the NHC
forecast follows the multi-model consensus TVCN, and the average
track between the GFS and the ECMWF, keeping Polo on a track
parallel to the southwest coast of Mexico. Polo is expected to turn
to the west by the end of the forecast period as a ridge to the
north rebuilds.

The government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch for a
portion of the coast of southwestern Mexico from Zihuatanejo to
Cabo Corrientes.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 12.8N 99.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 13.8N 100.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 15.0N 102.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 16.3N 103.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 17.5N 105.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 19.5N 108.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 21.0N 110.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 21/1200Z 22.0N 112.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
Edouard places first!
Quoting 742. HaoleboySurfEC:

A little easterly component hanging around, so I may have to go to a little more sheltered break than Wrightsville, which is my go to break in the area. Something to ride :-)




True. Looks to less than 10 mph ne-ene tomorrow. Should be light enough and swell powerful enough to stay fairly clean at most beaches I would think. A little protection never hurts though. Winds increase Thursday though as swell begins to stretch.
It's been flirting with major for last 18 hours. Now the satellite presentation degrades some and its upgraded. Still has some time to improve, though it sounds like once it begins weakening, it'll do so quickly.




Blake certainly seemed excited about the appearance.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

lets not forget about this tropical storm!!!
Marco...



TROPICAL STORM POLO will be a hurricane with winds up to 100 mph in a few days from now.


You'd think having the worst cane to ever hit Cabo San Lucas and the first major in almost two years might mean the Canadian, especially the long range Canadian, might not be seen on the forum, but you'd be wrong.

I can see where the Canadian gets its 1 week hurricane from, off the storms offshore Florida, which meanders in the Gulf and then develops. Not much support I see from other models. If I was a betting man, I'd say no.

A storm that wonders just offshore the entire length of the Gulf would be cool, however.



Hurricane EDOUARD
Quoting 744. Doss2k:



True I was in Goldsboro for Fran and the eye went right by us there. That was a long next summer of chopping wood from all the fallen trees. I was here in Raleigh for Floyd which mostly affected the eastern part of the state I dont even remember it raining here, it was a very distinct line between nice sunny weather and the nasty stuff east of I-95 basically.


the flooding was terrible for Floyd..people evacuated and went inland to Raleigh/Charlotte but couldnt get back as roads leading back to eastern NC had caved in due to excessive rain or were under water..NC took a huge hit in the agriculture area as a lot of livestock had drowned due to rivers flooding and rain from Floyd.. (Floyd was projected to hit as a Cat 4 but downgraded to a 2 right before landfall) Its one of the top 3 largest evacuation in US History as almost the entire SE coast evacuated for a storm that couldn't make up its mind in where it wanted to landfall..

I actually had stayed and didnt evacuate..
Here come Odile to the Arizona.
Should be nice wed at Satellite, Cocoa, Jupiter, etc.





Cocoa Beach tides for Wednesday:
09/17 Wed 02:44 AM 3.63 H
09/17 Wed 09:19 AM 0.75 L
09/17 Wed 03:30 PM 3.69 H
09/17 Wed 09:51 PM 1.03 L
Edouard is now Cat 3 Edouard is now Major

Total tropical systems
INVEST (IN) 15
Tropical Depression (TD) 6
Tropical Storm (TS) 5
Hurricanes (HU) 4
Major Hurricanes (MH) 1

INVEST
90L 2
91L 2
92L 2
93L 2
94L 2
95L 1
96L 1
97L 1
98L 1
99L 1

TD #
TD 1
TD 2
TD 3
TD 4
TD 5
TD 6

STORM NAME (To current date)
ARTHUR
BERTHA
CRISTOBAL
DOLLY
EDOUARD


TD STATUS
#2 (TWO)

TS SPEED
40-45MPH 2 Dolly,
50-55MPH
60-65MPH
65+MPH

HURRICANE CATs

CAT 1- 2 Bertha, Christobal
CAT 2- 1 Arthur
CAT 3- 1 Edouard
CAT 4-
CAT 5-

STRONGEST SYSTEM SINCE SEASON START
Edouard 115mph 955mb


OBX would be my call, but too far for a day trip. Actually only a morning trip. That's all I can squeeze.

Dawn Patrol. Hopefully some kids out before school. Great to be around the excited groms. All smiles. Reminds me of being a kid again. We had a place under the boardwalk where we would hide our gear, bike to school and then hit it up again after we got out.

Quoting 753. GatorWX:



True. Looks to less than 10 mph ne-ene tomorrow. Should be light enough and swell powerful enough to stay fairly clean at most beaches I would think. A little protection never hurts though. Winds increase Thursday though as swell begins to stretch.
The rotting corpse of 92L is making landfall in the Western Gulf today, near 2.3 inch PWs and a very modest convective temperature in Lake Charles, heading in the general direction of SETX, means possibly the rare Summer rains IMBY. PW at LCH is 2.46, so it is a pretty broad slug of moisture. Clouds building, but Sun still out, low to mid 80sF with dewpoints in mid to upper 70s (and the soundings suggest the dewpoints won't mix down very much), should be achieving convective temperatures anytime now. In fact, clouds are building, we are about there, and I think the Sun will soon be obscured. Not much wind energy, CAPE is big but skinny, but I have heard of severe wind gusts just from precipitation loading. I do not believe I have had a 50 knot gust in my yard in 6 years and 2.5 days.





Based on the 12Z LCH and CRP soundings, the SPC short term model derived mesoanalysis may actually be a touch pessimistic with PW in Texas.

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
I'm out. You all have a fine Tuesday.

Quoting 747. sporteguy03:




000
FXUS62 KMLB 160803
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
403 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014
FRI-MON...
NO SIG COOL AIR ADVECTION AS THE FRONT HAS BEEN MEANDERING OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. FURTHERMORE...WITH SFC/LOW LVL
WINDS SHIFTING ONSHORE...OCEAN MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR QUICKLY.
MAX/MIN TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVIATE FROM CLIMO AVGS BY MORE THAN
3F DEG.




I'm talking about the last full week of the month beyond thier forecast.;)
Quoting 162. sar2401:

LOL. Thanks. Before Twitter, the original party line was ham radio. It still works today when all our new fangled gadgets don't. I've been at this for about 12 hours straight now so time for a little nap. We'll see what shows up later.


It's great and hats off to you and your fellow Ham radio colleagues for maintaining this important, resilient communications system. I have worried it might die out since there are so many other high tech ways to communicate with others all over the world, when infrastructure is working.

In our first world country I worry that phone comms are much more vulnerable than forty years ago because cell towers are vulnerable to power disruptions and because modern landlines are increasingly not copper carrying their own power but are instead fiber requiring external local power so now if you lose power you lose phone. I hung on to the bitter end in my neighborhood with copper but eventually the phone company removed it and I'm on fiber.

When the DC area gets hit by a Cat 2 i.e. Hazel analog or something similarly intense, the devastation will be utterly outside our previous experience. And it's preventable with better power line and flood barrier maintenance and building code enforcement.
Does not appear to be DOOM for AZ at this point...

...Flash Flood Watch remains in effect from late tonight through Thursday afternoon including the greater Tucson area...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* a portion of Southeast Arizona...including the following areas...Baboquivari Mountains...Catalina and Rincon Mountains...galiuro and Pinaleno Mountains...tohono o'odham nation...Tucson Metro area and upper Santa Cruz River Valley/Altar Valley.

Tucson Metro Area including Tucson/Green Valley/Marana/Vail Severe Watches & Warnings NOAA Weather Radio
Flash Flood Watch
Statement as of 3:47 AM MDT on September 16, 2014

...
* From late tonight through Thursday afternoon

* an initial period of rain associated with the outer band of Hurricane Odile will pass through the area early today. Localized heavy rainfall will be possible with this initial period of rain. Thereafter...the timing of the additional periods of rain will be less certain until late Tuesday night into Thursday when the bulk of the heavy rainfall can be anticipated. Rainfall amounts will vary widely across the area...but the heaviest rainfall amounts will total 3 to 5 inches by late Thursday.
Quoting 719. ncstorm:

Heading to the GOM? LOL





Reminds me how I survived tropical depression Ivan...
Quoting 506. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

not sure how far how long one truly does not know but ya there has been a change yes water is too warm abnormal therefore abnormal behavior can and will occur in weather

Keeper,
Thanks for your reply, while yes I understand abnormal water temp is a factor in any TS, in this case we have the center of the storm, traveling what will be ~440 miles as of tonight, not only onshore, but over dry land and mountain ranges. I'm sorry but explanation of abnormally warm water is not going to answer this question for me.

I am a former resident of CSL and have been trying to establish contact since Sunday afternoon when all the local PWS's went dark in the region. My expectation is that cell service will be the first direct communication that will get back up. I want to thank the many folks on this blog for posting the available picts and videos, they have been tremendously helpful. What will help me a lot is the links back to the sources of them. I call every hour or so trying to reach my neighbors there by cell, when I do get thru I will post here.

Thanks, CaboKid
Pinhole eye! Someone has to say it. ;) Have a good day all. Off to work.

Quoting 773. GatorWX:

Pinhole eye! Someone has to say it. ;) Have a good day all. Off to work.




I bet Taz saw it first though.


My personal weather station in San José del Cabo, IBAJACAL4 was destroyed near at 10pm on september 14th, that was thr last time that I talked with my father. -Son, this is horrible, we are ok, but really scared. I havent seen so much wind and rain in more than 40 years, I will call you in 2 minutes-. He didn't call. :(.

I feel really bad because I just moved to Hermosillo, Sonora, 2 months ago and I wanted so bad to be with my family right now.

There is no flights to Los Cabos, both airports are destroyed, more thab 2 000 light poles are gone. No food and no water.

The president just arrived today to see whats is needed, people is not allowed to go to Baja Sur.

I will try to get any news and let you know.

Jorge Garza
Quoting 665. Landfall2004:



Hi ya, "Tim".


Howdy.
Quoting 775. GeorgefromLosCabos:

My personal weather station in San José del Cabo, IBAJACAL4 was destroyed near at 10pm on september 14th, that was thr last time that I talked with my father. -Son, this is horrible, we are ok, but really scared. I havent seen so much wind and rain in more than 40 years, I will call you in 2 minutes-. He didn't call. :(.

I feel really bad because I just moved to Hermosillo, Sonora, 2 months ago and I wanted so bad to be with my family right now.

There is no flights to Los Cabos, both airports are destroyed, more thab 2 000 light poles are gone. No food and no water.

The president just arrived today to see whats is needed, people is not allowed to go to Baja Sur.

I will try to get any news and let you know.

Jorge Garza


Keeping you and your family in my thoughts and prayers. They'll be ok. :)