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Gulf of Mexico Disturbance 92L Disorganized; Baja Watching Hurricane Odile

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:34 PM GMT on September 13, 2014

A small area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico a few hundred miles west of South Florida (Invest 92L) is bringing heavy rains to the waters of the Florida Straits, but satellite loops show that this activity is poorly organized. Strong upper level winds out of the north are creating a moderately high 15 - 20 knots of wind shear, and the atmosphere is fairly dry to the north, interfering with development. Ocean temperatures are a very warm 30°C (86°F) over the Gulf, but the presence of dry air and high wind shear of 15 - 25 knots should keep any development slow until 92L moves inland over Texas on Monday night. Heavy rains from 92L will begin affecting Texas and the Mexican coast south of the Texas border on Monday, with 1 - 3" or rain possible Monday through Tuesday. None of the three reliable computer models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis develop 92L over the Gulf of Mexico. In their 2 pm EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system 2-day and 5-day odds of development odds of 10%. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 92L on Sunday afternoon, if neccessary.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 92L.

Tropical Storm Edouard not a threat to land
Tropical Storm Edouard continues chugging to the northwest at 12 mph over the Central Atlantic, and is not a threat to any land areas. Satellite images show that Edouard has lost most of its heavy thunderstorms, but the storm remains well-organized. With wind shear expected to diminish by Sunday and ocean temperatures expected to be warm, the official NHC forecast of Edouard becoming a Category 1 hurricane by Sunday night appears to be on track.


Figure 2. Latest satellite image of Edouard.

Tropical wave 93L
A tropical wave (93L) that emerged from the coast of Africa on Thursday was located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands on Saturday morning, and was headed west to west-northwest at 10 mph. Satellite images show 93L has a good degree of spin and is fairly well-organized, but has little heavy thunderstorm activity. The system is headed into a region with cooler waters and dry air, and none of the three reliable computer models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis develop 93L. In their 2 pm EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system 2-day and 5-day odds of development odds of 10%.


Figure 3. MODIS true-color image of Invest 93L off the coast of Africa, at approximately 8 am EDT September 13, 2014. Image credit: NASA.

Odile becomes a hurricane
In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Odile became the 11th hurricane of season Saturday morning, intensifying to a Category 1 storm with 80 mph winds at 11 am EDT. Satellite loops show that Odile continues to grow more organized, but the hurricane's heavy rains are remaining offshore of Mexico. Odile may be undergoing a period of rapid intensification that will take it to at least Category 2 strength; the 12Z Saturday run of the SHIPS model gave Odile a 55% chance of intensifying by 30 mph in 24 hours. While all of the reliable computer models show Odile will track northwest and remain offshore of the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula, just a slight deviation to the east would bring tropical storm conditions to the coast. The 11 am EDT Saturday NHC Wind Probability Forecast gave Cabo San Lucas on the tip of the Baja Peninsula a 51% chance of seeing tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph , and a 6% chance of hurricane-force winds. As Odile passes southern Baja on Monday, the computer models grow more divergent in their forecast for the hurricane's track, with several reliable models (the European and UKMET) showing landfall over the Central Baja Peninsula. The GFS model keeps the storm out to sea. Regardless of the track, tropical moisture flowing northwards from Odile's circulation is likely to bring heavy rains to Northern Mexico and the Southwest U.S. by the middle of the week.

Typhoon Kalmaegi forms east of the Philippines
In the Western Pacific, Category 1 Typhoon Kalmaegi continues to gather strength in the waters east of the Philippines, and is on course to hit the Philippines' Luzon Island on Sunday. Kalmaegi is then expected to cross the South China Sea and impact China early next week.

Hurricane expert Steve Gregory has a more detailed look at 92L and the rest of the tropics in his latest post.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

GFDL certainly is a fan of Edouard.

My bad, sitting here rooting for Texas against UCLA.... 17-13 Texas now... I'm a USC fan enough said...
Quoting CybrTeddy:
GFDL certainly is a fan of Edouard.

Cat. 4 just like the gold ol' days? :)
Quoting 491. AtHomeInTX:



Huh? I would like for it to get to the Austin area without causing anymore problems at the south coast. But yes, I'd send Ped some rain if I could. :)
It's the thought that counts. Did you hear the news? The new rivalry is the Gators and the Kentucky Wildcats. FSU is not even looking at Gainsville as a rivalry this season. To quote Jimbo when asked of the gaters, he said" Yawn, they are a bore." Aggies and Longhorns still butt heads right?
Give your observation. I'm open minded, so go ahead.


my lottery numbers have failed me again
Quoting K8eCane:
my lottery numbers have failed me again
:(
20-17 UCLA 3:00 left in 4th...
Quoting 508. PedleyCA:

20-17 UCLA 3:00 left in 4th...


UT deserves to lose after such incompetent clock management after the turnover. Pathetic.
Quoting 476. Andrebrooks:

I heard that TWC is up for sale, is that true?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-12/weather- channel-said-to-speak-to-banks-on-options-includin g-sale.html Weather Channel may go for Sale soon.
Quoting Pallis1:
It's the thought that counts. Did you hear the news? The new rivalry is the Gators and the Kentucky Wildcats. FSU is not even looking at Gainsville as a rivalry this season. To quote Jimbo when asked of the gaters, he said" Yawn, they are a bore." Aggies and Longhorns still butt heads right?


hmmmm? not sure. You're askin' the wrong girl there. ;) I only follow the NFL.
Is 93L trying to make a comeback.
513. wxmod
North Pole. Modis satellite photo today.

Guys I this thing is coming together now!!Look!!
Maybe back up to 10/10 or 10/20 or 20/20.
Nothing coming out of this two. The wave about to come out of Africa and the next one might be the ones. XD. Btw the Invest that became Edouard was 90L or 91L?
Quoting 512. Andrebrooks:

Is 93L trying to make a comeback.

Its done.
Quoting 514. Andrebrooks:

Guys I this thing is coming together now!!Look!!

Its dead.
Quoting 493. GTstormChaserCaleb:

GFS did an awesome job forecasting this intensity.

12z GFS Sept. 8:







i may wake up too a cat 4 or close too cat 5 in the AM
Quoting CybrTeddy:
GFDL certainly is a fan of Edouard.



If that happens the surf at Bermuda will be swell!
Quoting 504. Pallis1:

It's the thought that counts. Did you hear the news? The new rivalry is the Gators and the Kentucky Wildcats. FSU is not even looking at Gainsville as a rivalry this season. To quote Jimbo when asked of the gaters, he said" Yawn, they are a bore." Aggies and Longhorns still butt heads right?
Quoting 514. Andrebrooks:

Guys I this thing is coming together now!!Look!!



We shall see.. the TWO at two (hehe..two and two!)
TD 16E is looking really good this is TD 16E last ch of being a TS it is really trying hard tonight i wounder if it will pull it off come on TD 16E this is the best you ever look

Quoting dfwstormwatch:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-12/weather- channel-said-to-speak-to-banks-on-options-includin g-sale.html Weather Channel may go for Sale soon.


Link
Quoting Andrebrooks:
Maybe back up to 10/10 or 10/20 or 20/20.


Nah, probably not.

SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1029 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRES 1011 MB LOCATED NEAR 26N87W WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTH-CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN TO A TROUGH AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF SUN AND MON...AND INLAND NE MEXICO
ON MON NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS WILL STALL OVER THE NW GULF
LATE TONIGHT...THEN DRIFT NW AND BACK INLAND MON NIGHT. A SECOND
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NE GULF ON TUE...WHERE IT WILL STALL
THROUGH WED NIGHT.
Quoting allancalderini:
Nothing coming out of this two. The wave about to come out of Africa and the next one might be the ones. XD. Btw the Invest that became Edouard was 90L or 91L?
Its done. Its dead.
That's exactly what I was talking about earlier when it comes to spamming the blog with nonsense. Andre seems to enjoy it though.
Andrebrooks is really jumping the gun tonight give it a rest 92L and 93L are dead
Quoting K8eCane:
my lottery numbers have failed me again
I won two bucks. Maybe I should quit while I'm ahead. :-)
Link


Great news on our Ozone (Believe it or not)!
Quoting Tazmanian:
Andrebrooks is really jumping the gun tonight give it a rest 92L and 93L are dead
So what should I do now Taz.Take a vacation. LOL.
Quoting 497. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Cat. 2 seems to be the consensus, but I would not rule out a Cat. 3 given favorable upper level winds and warm sst anomalies ahead.




By using this plot, the user agrees to the UCAR Terms of Use ... ect. Anything in capitalization outside of the beginning of a sentence, a name, or minor appreciative is Lawful, meaning binding by law. One might think that Legal is the same as lawful, but it is not. The first contract you signed was your baby feet, with your parents signing you over probably not knowing what they were doing, if you were born in America. Scary that you can click a mouse and sign a legal contract though. What if you sneezed, and hit with your elbow against your malfunctioning hardware while eating pizza? At least the models are generally in agreeance.


The north side of Odile was a bit dry earlier, but she's overcome that problem splendidly. -80 C tops surround the eye. Rapid intensification confirmed; C4 by morning. Lock that in.



Edouard, in true Atl 2014 fashion, has been losing the deep convection battle today. But when convection does appear, it's around that eye-like feature. I doubt it will be as pretty as Odile -- or almost any given EPac TC this year for that matter -- but I'm still gonna go with C1 when I wake up. Prediction: he won't reach major status, peaking at 110 mph.

Look forward to seeing what the morning brings.
They are having hard time with 92L so I think the forecast is still in flux.
Taz, I remember a few years ago, the Atlantic had what you called a "full house" where all invests numbered 90L through 99L became named storms in a row. When was this, and which names were these? 
92 is sitting in the STJ, nuttin happening tonight.

TD 16E could vary well be under way of be comeing a TS over night and going too 1st part of sunday
Quoting 532. Halcyon19:

Taz, I remember a few years ago, the Atlantic had what you called a "full house" where all invests numbered 90L through 99L became named storms in a row. When was this, and which names were these? 



lol am not even keeping track this year not even work it for the Atlantic but i have been keeping track in the E PAC
Quoting 525. sar2401:

I won two bucks. Maybe I should quit while I'm ahead. :-)


Playing the lottery is hopeful, just like a lot of us coming here, hoping to track a cool storm.
Edouard is also facing a branch of the STJ.

Hence the disheveled appearance this eve.

Quoting Hurricanes101:


No
I'm thinking about taking him off ignore so I can report him. Fer cryin' out loud...
Quoting OceanMoan:


Playing the lottery is hopeful, just like a lot of us coming here, hoping to track a cool storm.
Well, someone has to win. It just won't be me, and Ed's our best chance at a cool storm for now.
Quoting centex:
They are having hard time with 92L so I think the forecast is still in flux.
Who's having a hard time?
Quoting 532. Halcyon19:

Taz, I remember a few years ago, the Atlantic had what you called a "full house" where all invests numbered 90L through 99L became named storms in a row. When was this, and which names were these? 

The last time we had a full round of invests 90L-99L labeled and in which all of them developed into named storms in the Atlantic was in 2010.
90L: Hermine
91L: Igor
92L: Julia
93L: Karl
94L: Lisa
95L: Matthew
96L: Nicole
97L: Otto
98L: Paula
99L: Richard
The 2011 and 2012 seasons came close to having this occur but fell short by a couple of invests.
Tropical Atl is becoming a dead zone.

X92L is going to be a tease. 
Quoting gulfbreeze:
Could 92 be trying to reform in the Fl. Keys
No. 92L is about 300 miles from the Keys.
Polo, Rachel, Edouard, and Fay.

Good Night Peeps, Stay Safe, Stay Away from the Standing Water, Sleep Well......
Quoting 540. sar2401:

Who's having a hard time?
NHC. It's medium chance passing over FL as naked swirl going into hostile eastern gulf. Now that it's nearing central gulf and closer to somewhat better conditions they lose faith and change it from low off south texas on Monday to wave/low getting picked up by current front swept up to Nola. This all in 12 hours. While many bloggers jump to rip crap, even the NHC leaves the door open, lets see what do they do next.
Good night everyone. Weather watching is an interest of mine. I have been following this blog since katrina . I am not an expert I am just learning as I read and observe. I have managed to pick up quite a lot over the years, but as a mother of two lovely babies. My time is so limited online. I am in Jamaica on the south coast and have live sometime on the west coast. I have seen where hurricanes have changed our beaches, each storm that passes takes away a bit of the shorelines. We find that areas that never flooded are now flooding, as i was in new market when hurricane lili passed and the water reached the light posts. I pray that no major hurricane comes our way. With that said for, this question is for the experts on here. What does the models say about the area of showers behind 93l thats just coming of Africa? Or is just a part of the iTCZ and not worth running.
We're close to breaking history in the Northeast Pacific. To date, there have been seven major hurricanes--Amanda, Cristina, Genevieve, Iselle, Julio, Marie, and Norbert. Odile is very likely to join the ranks of these in an hour and a half when the intermediate advisory comes out:



So now we turn our attention to the GFS, which shows yet another major hurricane off the southwestern Mexico coastline in 144 hours. Thereafter, it bombs out the tropical cyclone west of Panama. If both of these were to become major hurricanes, that would give us magic number 10--the highest number of major hurricanes ever observed in a Pacific season. This record was set in 1992.

Quoting 519. yankees440:



We shall see.. the TWO at two (hehe..two and two!)
You are the watchtower and the lighthouse combined. Someone will hopefully take over your shift, but I have been working 10 hr. days for 2 weeks now. I have not eaten dinner at night for 5 weeks. Good night Sir, and thank you.
Quoting 549. TropicalAnalystwx13:

We're close to breaking history in the Northeast Pacific. To date, there have been seven major hurricanes--Amanda, Cristina, Genevieve, Iselle, Julio, Marie, and Norbert. Odile is very likely to join the ranks of these in an hour and a half when the intermediate advisory comes out:



So now we turn our attention to the GFS, which shows yet another major hurricane off the southwestern Mexico coastline in 144 hours. Thereafter, it bombs out the tropical cyclone west of Panama. If both of these were to become major hurricanes, that would give us magic number 10--the highest number of major hurricanes ever observed in a Pacific season. This record was set in 1992.


Ehh, just send it to Ped.
Quoting 549. TropicalAnalystwx13:

We're close to breaking history in the Northeast Pacific. To date, there have been seven major hurricanes--Amanda, Cristina, Genevieve, Iselle, Julio, Marie, and Norbert. Odile is very likely to join the ranks of these in an hour and a half when the intermediate advisory comes out:



So now we turn our attention to the GFS, which shows yet another major hurricane off the southwestern Mexico coastline in 144 hours. Thereafter, it bombs out the tropical cyclone west of Panama. If both of these were to become major hurricanes, that would give us magic number 10--the highest number of major hurricanes ever observed in a Pacific season. This record was set in 1992.




I like the Epac season because there are usually a lot of nice storms, but since the main pattern is out to the Pacific, damage is generally not as bad as in the Atlantic or West Pacific, even in years like this
This is what makes storms.


Quoting 535. Tazmanian:




lol am not even keeping track this year not even work it for the Atlantic but i have been keeping track in the E PAC
Haha it really is not even worth it in the Atlantic! How has the EPAC been doing?
Quoting 541. TylerStanfield:


The last time we had a full round of invests 90L-99L labeled and in which all of them developed into named storms in the Atlantic was in 2010.
90L: Hermine
91L: Igor
92L: Julia
93L: Karl
94L: Lisa
95L: Matthew
96L: Nicole
97L: Otto
98L: Paula
99L: Richard
The 2011 and 2012 seasons came close to having this occur but fell short by a couple of invests.
Yes! This was it. I can't believe it has already been four whole years since this happened. Thank you!!!!


taking a path to hit all the hot water it possibly can
Quoting 556. nwobilderburg:



taking a path to hit all the hot water it possibly can


seems to have messed up
Quoting 556. nwobilderburg:



taking a path to hit all the hot water it possibly can
link me what you are trying to post and I'll fix it for you. If that does not work it is probably because you either took a snapshot of the image or you enhanced it.


heres the image, had to screencap it


this should work
Quoting 558. GTstormChaserCaleb:

link me what you are trying to post and I'll fix it for you.


hmm, it wont let me post, is there like some timer/cooldown time between posts so people cant spam?
Quoting 554. Halcyon19:


Haha it really is not even worth it in the Atlantic! How has the EPAC been doing?


round 1

90E bust
91E bust
92E be comes AMANDA
93E be comes BORIS
94E be comes CHRISTINA

95E bust
96E be comes Douglas
97E be comes ELIDA
98E bust 1 bust 2 then be comes Wali in the C pac
99E be comes Fausto

round 2

90E bust
91E be comes Genevieve
92E bust
93E bust
94E be comes Hernan
95E be comes ISELLE
96E bust
97E be comes JULIO
98E bust
99E be comes Karina

round 3

90E bust
91E be comes Lowell
92E be comes Marie
93E be comes Norbert
94E be comes ODILE
95E be comes TD 16E
96E bust



all most too round 4
oops, sorry
Quoting 559. nwobilderburg:



heres the image, had to screencap it
Imagine if it goes up the Gulf of California. :O
Quoting 564. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Imagine if it goes up the Gulf of California. :O


the southwest and texas would get a good bit of rain, i imagine. i dont know how intense it would be, because Odile (awful name btw) is a big storm, and a the western part of the storm would be messed up by the Baja peninsula. Would be a pretty cool track though

THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE SOUTHWEST OWES IN PART TO THE
LONGWAVE PROGRESSING INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC. AS WITH THE EVENT
ABOUT ONE WEEK AGO IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST, ENERGY KICKING INLAND IN
THE WESTERLIES IS SET TO DRAW A DEEP SLUG OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA,IN PART ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL CYCLONE--IN THIS CASE, HURRICANE ODILE. WHO GETS WHAT AND
FOR HOW LONG ARE STILL UNANSWERED SENSIBLE WEATHER QUESTIONS, BUT
A VARIETY OF SCENARIOS COULD SOAK NORMALLY DRY REGIONS ANYWHERE
FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, TO THE LOWER DESERTS AND GREAT BASIN, TO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS.
I'm looking for 92L up to 10% at next two. Hope it does not bring out the doom casters.
Quoting 567. centex:

I'm looking for 92L up to 10% at next two. Hope it does not bring out the doom casters.



92L and 93L been drop from the navy site

Atlantic
green ball06L.EDOUARD

East Pacific
green ball16E.SIXTEEN
green ball15E.ODILE

Central Pacific

West Pacific
green ball96W.INVEST
green ball15W.KALMAEGI

Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere

Southern Hemisphere 2015

if am right it will all so mean that it will get drop from the new two has well
Quoting 565. nwobilderburg:



the southwest and texas would get a good bit of rain, i imagine. i dont know how intense it would be, because Odile (awful name btw) is a big storm, and a the western part of the storm would be messed up by the Baja peninsula. Would be a pretty cool track though
we are looking for a triple play, next front for trigger, odile and 92L moisture.
Quoting 569. centex:

we are looking for a triple play, next front for trigger, odile and 92L moisture.

i live in California, so I know what waiting for rain is like
Quoting 568. Tazmanian:




92L and 93L been drop from the navy site


thanks
Quoting 567. centex:

I'm looking for 92L up to 10% at next two. Hope it does not bring out the doom casters.


With you on that. And, on the naysayers about 92L being dead. NOT. As long as convection continues to fire. In fact note dry air is moistening
Round 2 of rain and T-storms incoming to a South Floridian location near you :)

Quoting 562. Tazmanian:



round 1

90E bust
91E bust
92E be comes AMANDA
93E be comes BORIS
94E be comes CHRISTINA

95E bust
96E be comes Douglas
97E be comes ELIDA
98E bust 1 bust 2 then be comes Wali in the C pac
99E be comes Fausto

round 2

90E bust
91E be comes Genevieve
92E bust
93E bust
94E be comes Hernan
95E be comes ISELLE
96E bust
97E be comes JULIO
98E bust
99E be comes Karina

round 3

90E bust
91E be comes Lowell
92E be comes Marie
93E be comes Norbert
94E be comes ODILE
95E be comes TD 16E
96E bust



all most too round 4
Poor 90E :(
Odile has continued to intensify. I'd estimate intensity to be at about 105-115 knots.

We could see Odile become a Category four as it nears the Baja.
Quoting centex:
NHC. It's medium chance passing over FL as naked swirl going into hostile eastern gulf. Now that it's nearing central gulf and closer to somewhat better conditions they lose faith and change it from low off south texas on Monday to wave/low getting picked up by current front swept up to Nola. This all in 12 hours. While many bloggers jump to rip crap, even the NHC leaves the door open, lets see what do they do next.
The situation seems pretty clear to me. As you say, we'll see what the experts do next.
Quoting 572. CCTXStormTracker:



With you on that. And, on the naysayers about 92L being dead. NOT. As long as convection continues to fire. In fact note dry air is moistening


there can be numerous reasons that convection flares up in any situation. Does not mean that the system is intensifying
Quoting 576. sar2401:

The situation seems pretty clear to me. As you say, we'll see what the experts do next.
they kept door open, near 0
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Edouard, located about one thousand miles east-northeast
of the northern Leeward Islands.

A weak low pressure area located over the east-central Gulf of
Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Upper-level winds are not conducive for development, and the low
will most likely degenerate into a trough of low pressure while it
moves westward across the Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located about 600 miles west
of the Cape Verde Islands are associated with a tropical wave.
Environmental conditions are expected to remain unfavorable for
development while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across
the tropical Atlantic during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown


0/0 and 0/0, sorry folks......nothing to see here
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Edouard, located about one thousand miles east-northeast
of the northern Leeward Islands.

1. A weak low pressure area located over the east-central Gulf of
Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Upper-level winds are not conducive for development, and the low
will most likely degenerate into a trough of low pressure while it
moves westward across the Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

2. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located about 600 miles west
of the Cape Verde Islands are associated with a tropical wave.
Environmental conditions are expected to remain unfavorable for
development while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across
the tropical Atlantic during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Forecaster Brown
Quoting centex:
they kept door open, near 0
It's been deactivated and the floaters will soon be down. Cling to it as long as you wish. Miracles do happen.
Quoting 580. Grothar:






95L?
What about that low East of SA? I see 3 lows. Edouard and which one are the other 2?

Quoting 583. Hurricanes101:



95L?


It could be a contender.
Quoting 586. Grothar:



It could be a contender.


I will say this, I do think what was 93L could be something to watch down the road, but for now its done
Quoting 577. Hurricanes101:



there can be numerous reasons that convection flares up in any situation. Does not mean that the system is intensifying



...now, now nelly don't be putting words in my mouth. I don't recall using that rather strong term "intensifying". geez
Quoting 587. Hurricanes101:



I will say this, I do think what was 93L could be something to watch down the road, but for now its done


I wasn't referring to 93L. I know it has been removed
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ODILE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
1100 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014

...ODILE BECOMES A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE AS IT MOVES
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 106.9W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES
Quoting 589. Grothar:



I wasn't referring to 93L. I know it has been removed



I know lol, was just making conversation
You know the tropics are boring when I'm not around for a Gulf "disturbance".

*cough*
Quoting 591. Hurricanes101:



I know lol, was just making conversation


In that case, what did you think of the Giants game last week? :)
Quoting 595. Grothar:



In that case, what did you think of the Giants game last week? :)


are we talking the New York football Giants or the San Fransisco baseball Giants? lol
Well, this is new, to me at least.

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF
WATERS NEAR 29N93W THAT IS PROVIDING THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 25N
WITH NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NE FLOW
HOWEVER...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
NEAR 31N87W SW TO 28N92W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE W-
SW INTERSECTING THE TEXAS GULF COAST NEAR 26N97W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT E OF 93W. TO THE SE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF...A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 31N86W TO A
1013 MB LOW NEAR 26N87W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 22N87W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
EASTERN GULF IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW AND TROUGHING...ALONG
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ALONG 82W IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA.
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THESE TWO FEATURES WILL MERGE
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WITH WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WITHIN A BROAD
ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC WINDS RANGING FROM 5 TO 15 KT ON MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
WEST-CENTRAL AND SW GULF THIS EVENING AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
REMAINS DRAPED ALONG INLAND EASTERN MEXICO FROM 20N98W TO
25N99W. THE CONVECTION IS LARGELY W OF A LINE FROM THE
STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 27N96W TO THE NW TIP OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 21N90W.
Quoting 594. DonnieBwkGA:




Where do you think I got the line from? ")
Quoting 597. AtHomeInTX:

Well, this is new, to me at least.

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF
WATERS NEAR 29N93W THAT IS PROVIDING THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 25N
WITH NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NE FLOW
HOWEVER...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
NEAR 31N87W SW TO 28N92W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE W-
SW INTERSECTING THE TEXAS GULF COAST NEAR 26N97W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT E OF 93W. TO THE SE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF...A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 31N86W TO A
1013 MB LOW NEAR 26N87W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 22N87W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
EASTERN GULF IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW AND TROUGHING...ALONG
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ALONG 82W IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA.
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THESE TWO FEATURES WILL MERGE
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WITH WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WITHIN A BROAD
ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC WINDS RANGING FROM 5 TO 15 KT ON MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
WEST-CENTRAL AND SW GULF THIS EVENING AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
REMAINS DRAPED ALONG INLAND EASTERN MEXICO FROM 20N98W TO
25N99W. THE CONVECTION IS LARGELY W OF A LINE FROM THE
STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 27N96W TO THE NW TIP OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 21N90W.


This is what I showed before.

Quoting 596. Hurricanes101:



are we talking the New York football Giants or the San Fransisco baseball Giants? lol


I haven't followed baseball since the Dodgers left Brooklyn. Dem bums.
Quoting 602. Grothar:



I haven't followed baseball since the Dodgers left Brooklyn. Dem bums.


welp the football Giants looked worse last week than Bertha did as a hurricane

so that should tell you lol
Quoting Grothar:


This is what I showed before.



Ah, I must have missed that. Thanks Gro. :)
Last image before they pull the floater on 93L. Funny thing, it's the best it has looked

Quoting 603. Hurricanes101:



welp the football Giants looked worse last week than Bertha did as a hurricane

so that should tell you lol


Eli's losing it.
I think 93L has a chance late next week. The new wave at Guinea-Bissau looks good. Their weather service does not.
Kalmaegi

Quoting 377. hydrus:

Did you receive a WU mail message..?...I sent one about Jeff.


I did. So sorry Chris. Been really busy/pre-occupied. I still have it open. I feel bad for not responding sooner. I have a lot of crap going on in my life right now. I still have the tab open with you email. I'll get there. Sorry man! It's such a good email and worthy of a good response! Again, sorry/my bad. Tomorrow
Oh, look! Another dry tropical storm with a satellite signature not at all illustrative of its actual intensity.



The eye feature seen earlier is gone. Why the **** do I want to waste time blogging on the Atlantic this year?
92L. Dropped or not. Satellite representation sure does indicate the contrary. Dry air inhibitor is moistening according to 'vapor', circulation was still evident on 'visible' at sunset, and now popcorn type cells forming along those weak spiraling bands. Overall cant deny it is the most and best convection representation the system has had in the past 24 hours.
Quoting 605. Grothar:

Last image before they pull the floater on 93L. Funny thing, it's the best it has looked




One to keep an eye on, in the long run...along with the one in c-w Afrika
Quoting 603. Hurricanes101:



welp the football Giants looked worse last week than Bertha did as a hurricane

so that should tell you lol


My football giants looked pretty bad this week and good last. We're screwed! Glad I'm going out to the salt flats tomorrow to drink/have fun/forget
Quoting 614. GatorWX:



My football giants looked pretty bad this week and good last. We're screwed! Glad I'm going out to the salt flats tomorrow to drink/have fun/forget


I live an hour from New Orleans. I should consider going down to Bourbon on Monday and getting drunk in order to forget about the immutable woes wrought by the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season. >_<
Quoting 615. KoritheMan:



I live an hour from New Orleans. I should consider going down to Bourbon on Monday and getting drunk in order to forget about the immutable woes wrought by the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season. >_<


and the Oscar goes to....
Quoting 616. Hurricanes101:



and the Oscar goes to....


It's on my Facebook, too.
Pressure falling nicely at Bissau

Good storms rolling through

Also, Greg Norman took his left hand off with a chainsaw by accident. Despite its being his left hand, it was a slice and not a hook. Condolences and best wishes for his recovery.
May stand a chance at becoming Polo after all:



Not the most hospitable of environments with all that upper-level convergence around, so it'll likely be short-lived if it does happen, but eh. Better than anything than Atlantic has done.
Arthur and Cristobal were decent hurricanes.
Quoting 620. DonnieBwkGA:

Arthur and Cristobal were decent hurricanes.


Cristobal was not a decent hurricane. It was a typical high-latitude recurving Category 1. Not even an eye. I suppose the stretched out poleward outflow channel to the north enhanced by baroclinicity with the oncoming trough was cool, but after seeing it 40 times in the last 3 years with all the recurves at similar latitudes, I'm becoming a little numb to it.
Cristobal had an eye. You need to start paying attention Kori ;)

Quoting 622. DonnieBwkGA:

Cristobal had an eye. You need to start paying attention Kori ;)




Oops. Must have been while I was rightfully asleep. ;)
Quoting KoritheMan:


Oops. Must have been while I was rightfully asleep. ;)


If you blinked you missed it ;)
625. JRRP
0% 5 day probs means it is time for more Texas Winter hotlinks.



Interesting. Could be hurricane now? Maybe a major huh?
000
WTNT41 KNHC 140857
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
500 AM AST SUN SEP 14 2014

Edouard continues to gradually intensify, as a tightly curved band
has wrapped around the cyclone's center. Dvorak classifications
from both TAFB and SAB are a 4.0, or 65 kt, while the CIMSS Advanced
Dvorak Technique is substantially lower. The current intensity of
Edouard is assessed as a high-end tropical storm at 60 kt, but the
system may already be a hurricane given the uncertainties. The
vertical shear - primarily induced by a large tropical upper
tropospheric trough to its west-southwest - has begun to relax, now
that Edouard has moved poleward of the trough axis. Vertical shear
predicted by the global models should further weaken to less than 10
kt from 24 through 72 hours. This along with quite warm 29C waters
is likely to lead to continued intensification through three days.
The new NHC forecast peaks Edouard's intensity at 95 kt (slightly
higher than that in the previous advisory), based upon a blend of
the SHIPS statistical model and HWRF dynamical model. While the
vertical shear picks up significantly between days 3 and 4 as
Edouard recurves into the mid-latitude westerlies, the storm motion
and shear vectors are likely to align which would allow Edouard to
maintain its intensity through day 4. By day 5, cold waters and
very strong vertical shear are anticipated to cause substantial
weakening. Both the FSU Cyclone Phase Space analysis and the SHIPS
storm type indicate Edouard will transition to an extratropical
cyclone by day 5.

The improved organization of the deep convection as seen in the
infrared imagery as well as a couple of microwave passes allow for a
fairly confident assessment of the current position. Edouard is
moving toward the northwest at about 12 kt, primarily due to the
steering induced by a mid-level ridge to its northwest. Edouard
will round the western periphery of the ridge and recurve toward
the northeast about 3 days. The NHC track prediction is based upon
the tightly clustered multi-model TVCA track ensemble and is
slightly west of that shown in the previous advisory through 72
hours and slightly east thereafter.

The tropical-storm-force wind radii of Edouard was based upon an
earlier ASCAT pass, which indicated a substantially larger size than
that previously analyzed.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 24.0N 49.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 25.0N 51.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 26.2N 54.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 27.5N 55.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 28.9N 57.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 33.0N 56.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 38.5N 50.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 42.0N 39.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Landsea
Quoting EdMahmoud:
0% 5 day probs means it is time for more Texas Winter hotlinks.



and Louisiana winter weather too.

Look for Odile to get here named retired.
Quoting 626. EdMahmoud:

0% 5 day probs means it is time for more Texas Winter hotlinks.







thats pretty
Quoting 610. KoritheMan:

Oh, look! Another dry tropical storm with a satellite signature not at all illustrative of its actual intensity.



The eye feature seen earlier is gone. Why the **** do I want to waste time blogging on the Atlantic this year?



habit
area in front 93 could it be the real deal?


maybe a landfall hurricane here!!
HURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
200 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

Odile has continue to rapidly strengthen overnight with the eye
becoming more distinct in infrared satellite imagery. Recent
microwave imagery shows a well-defined eye, and a long convection
band that appears to be beginning of a concentric eyewall.
Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 115 kt,
and the latest UW-CIMSS ADT estimate is around 105 kt. Based on
these data, the initial wind speed is increased to 115 kt. Odile is
the seventh major hurricane to form in the eastern North Pacific
basin this season, which is only one shy of the record since the
advent of satellite imagery.

The hurricane is moving north-northwestward a little faster than
before, with an initial motion of 330 degrees at 13 kt. Odile
should turn northwestward today as it is steered around the western
portion of a strengthening ridge over the southern United States.
The track guidance is tightly clustered during the first 2 to 3 days
of the forecast period and the NHC forecast is near the middle of
the guidance envelope. The updated NHC track is very close to the
previous advisory through 72 hours. Later in the period, the GFS
and ECMWF show the cyclone continuing northwestward at a slower
forward speed, while some of the models indicate a more
north-northwestward or northward motion at days 4 and 5. The NHC
track leans toward the ECMWF and GFS solutions late in the forecast
period.

Warm water and low shear during the next 12 hours should allow for
some additional strengthening, but the rate of intensification is
expected to slow later today. In addition during the next day or
so, an eyewall replacement cycle could cause some fluctuations in
intensity. By Monday, the hurricane will be moving over cooler
water and weakening should begin. Rapid weakening is likely in a
couple of days as Odile moves over even colder waters and into a
more stable airmass as well as potential land interactions. The
updated NHC forecast shows a higher peak intensity due to the higher
initial intensity. After 24 hours, the NHC forecast is similar to
the previous advisory and a little below the intensity consensus.

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, as
strong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the center of
Odile. In addition, moisture from a disturbance over northeastern
Mexico and the Pacific ITCZ is forecast to be advected by Odile's
circulation northwestward across Mexico into the southwestern United
States by early next week. This could result in heavy rains and
life-threatening flash flooding in those areas. Please see
information from your local weather office for more details.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 19.1N 107.3W 115 KT 135 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 20.7N 108.6W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 22.7N 110.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 24.3N 112.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 25.6N 113.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 27.3N 115.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 28.2N 116.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 28.5N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH


wow 150 mph!!!!
area in front of 93 had alittle spin yesterday today the area looks like it separated some from 93 worth watching ready for the headhigh swell even though the direction stinks going to be mostly closeouts



cat 3 hurricane in the GOM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ODILE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
500 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

...CATEGORY 4 ODILE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 107.7W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO LA PAZ

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA.
* THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
LORETO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES
* THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
MULEGE.
* THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF MULEGE TO
SANTA ROSALIA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE ODILE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.7 WEST. ODILE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. A GENERAL
MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CORE OF ODILE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO THIS MORNING...AND THEN PASS NEAR OR OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ODILE IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
BEFORE THE HURRICANE NEARS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 941 MB...27.79 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA BEGINNING BY TONIGHT...AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH
AREA LATE MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR IN ADVANCE OF THE HURRICANE
CONDITIONS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF AROUND 15 INCHES IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS THE MEXICAN STATES OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR...COLIMA...JALISCO...AND WESTERN MICHOACAN. THESE RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.


CAT 4 HURRICANE
06Z GFS has backed off of the GOM system until the end of its run (312+ hours).
That's in wishcasting territory.

It has been showing a GOM system for two days now, but anything that far out can not be trusted. Worth watching for fun, but can't be trusted.

Yesterday the GFS had the Caribbean Low being pulled up into the GOM by the front dropping down across the Southern Plains next weekend/early next week.
Now that trough is weaker and doesn't pick anything up out of the Caribbean.

The Caribbean Low waits and doesn't start coming up until later in the week 10 days from now (240+ hours) and doesn't get into the GOM until (312 hours), 13 days from now.

The system is stronger because its had more time to sit down in the Caribbean, but it's to far out to be trusted.

At least it's not taking the system into Mexico like all the other systems this season.




Out in the Atlantic, Edouard is almost a hurricane.

92L was never forecasted to become a depression or a named storm. It is being highly sheared by the ULL in the southern GOM. Cold front nearing Gulf Coast, adding to the wind shear. It might try to develop as it nears the coast, the way most of the systems in the W. Gulf seem to do ... at the last moment.

The EPAC is extremely active, and when storms rise in the Eastern Pacific, in many cases, storm activity seems to fall in the W. Atlantic basin.
Odile looks to be undergoing an EWRC. May explain the recent warming clouds tops and generally degraded appearance on satellite. It's possible it has peaked in intensity. Still a strong storm though, going to be close as to whether we get a major hurricane landfall.

Quoting 637. hurricanes2018:




cat 3 hurricane in the GOM


That is interesting! On September 29, 1915, a powerful hurricane made landfall in southeastern, LA. It was one of the strongest hurricanes recorded in New Orleans. I wonder if that GFS forecast looks at past climatology?
TS Edouard I say is a Hurricane
And at the moment it is one of the best looking ones this season
This season had only produced 3 good looking systems including Edouard so far

I think Edouard might even become a Major atleast for a short period
Cat 3


Up up and away we go.



Catwing island 003 is directly in the path of Eduoard.
And catwing island 004 is in the path of Odile. Odile is affecting it right now. Let's hope the catwings were evacuated.
Waves by to the 2015 hurricane season. Maybe 2016 we will have a showing.


Odile's eye to get dangerously close to Cabo.

Quoting unknowncomic:
Odile's eye to get dangerously close to Cabo.


And the eyewall coming into catwing island 004
The Euro is still developing another CV system.

00z at 216 hours.

The eye is gone, so this is probably holding at 70mph.
Quoting 647. 62901IL:

Catwing island 003 is directly in the path of Eduoard.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
347 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

EXTENDED...FORECAST A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN ATTM PAST MIDWEEK...HOWEVER
THERE IS SOME CONSENSUS ON TRYING TO PINCH OFF SOME NRN STREAM
ENERGY OVER THE SE STATES PERHAPS IN THE FORM OF A CLOSED MID
LEVEL ISOBAR NORTH TO JUST NE OF STATE AS DEPICTED BY RECENT LOW
RES ECM AND TO SOME DEGREE GFS DURING THU-FRI. UNSETTLED CONDS
ASCD WITH HGHT FALLS INVOF AREA WOULD KEEP AT LEAST A MENTIONABLE
POP GOING THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH PERHAPS A MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE
SOUTH LEADING TO HIGHER RAIN CHC THAN IS PRESENTLY SHOWN. WL HV TO
FOLLOW CONSISTENCY TRENDS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE.

I guess us here in East Central Florida might be getting some good rains by mid to late week.
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* EDOUARD AL062014 09/14/14 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 70 74 78 83 86 92 98 101 102 97 90 78 63
V (KT) LAND 70 74 78 83 86 92 98 101 102 97 90 78 63
V (KT) LGE mod 70 76 80 84 87 91 92 90 86 81 74 64 54
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP

SHEAR (KT) 11 9 14 11 10 9 7 0 7 18 26 34 40
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -2 -3 -2 3 0 6 0 7 4 8 -2
SHEAR DIR 173 127 132 145 157 148 117 219 184 218 243 257 282
SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.1 27.9 26.9 25.9 23.9 22.4 21.3
POT. INT. (KT) 153 156 160 161 162 160 153 136 125 117 102 92 87
ADJ. POT. INT. 141 145 146 144 144 139 132 118 110 105 91 83 78
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -51.5 -51.7 -50.9 -50.9 -50.5 -51.1 -50.8 -51.7
TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 8 6 3 1 1
700-500 MB RH 42 41 41 41 41 42 43 49 56 52 53 55 48
MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 26 29 30 32 34 35 36 35 35 34 29
850 MB ENV VOR -19 -9 -4 -11 -16 -9 -10 -15 7 -13 2 7 -8
200 MB DIV 23 70 40 39 45 37 26 49 93 98 67 74 10
700-850 TADV 14 12 5 5 6 6 1 10 -2 10 11 18 5
LAND (KM) 1760 1658 1566 1517 1478 1459 1537 1508 1305 1069 907 1084 1415
LAT (DEG N) 24.4 25.0 25.6 26.3 26.9 28.2 29.7 31.8 34.3 37.1 39.8 41.6 42.2
LONG(DEG W) 50.0 51.3 52.7 53.7 54.7 56.3 57.1 56.8 55.5 52.2 47.1 41.5 36.4
STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 11 10 9 9 12 16 22 23 21 19
HEAT CONTENT 30 32 32 32 30 25 13 15 10 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=624)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
-------------------------------------------------- --------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -14.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 8. 10. 11. 10. 7. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8.
PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -8.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 6. 9. 10. 11. 9. 8. 6. 2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
-------------------------------------------------- --------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 16. 22. 28. 31. 32. 27. 20. 8. -7.

** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062014 EDOUARD 09/14/14 12 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.9%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.6%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.0%)

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062014 EDOUARD 09/14/14 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062014 EDOUARD 09/14/2014 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 4 6( 10) 10( 19) 13( 29) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
We finally have our 4th hurricane of the year, it might be our 1st major hurricane since 2012.
659. SLU
Eddie becomes a hurricane.

6-5-4-0
Quoting Andrebrooks:
We finally have our 4th hurricane of the year, it might be our 1st major hurricane since 2012.

YES!!!!!!!! YES!!!!!!! 2013, you've been beat by a landslide.
Quoting 658. Andrebrooks:

We finally have our 4th hurricane of the year, it might be our 1st major hurricane since 2012.


nice eye on this hurricane

Quoting 659. SLU:

Eddie becomes a hurricane.

6-5-4-0
Thanks, man. I'm feeling a little windy this morning.
Hurricane Edouard. My best guess is a 100 knot peak at this point, although as we all know intensity is pretty hard to forecast.

Quoting unknowncomic:
Odile's eye to get dangerously close to Cabo.



It's going to be close. They could see the eye of a major.
Look at that east of the Yucatan
93L still there!! and it has a strong spin to it... Strong convection firing in the center of circulation. Who knows if this one is a stealth little bugger!!!

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
630 am EDT sun Sep 14 2014

Long term [tuesday night through saturday]...

Deep moisture will continue to be present across the area with a
stalled frontal boundary also in the vicinity. These ingredients
point to an unsettled period coming up with an above average chance
of rain on Tuesday and Wednesday. Some locally heavy rain is
possible given the weak boundary and deep tropical moisture
expected to be in place
. A drying trend is possible for most of
the area with the exception of the southeast Big Bend near the end
of the week as the deepest moisture may get pushed to the south.
Daytime highs are expected to be near to slightly below normal
through most of the week.
Quoting hurricanes2018:
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


It's going to be close. They could see the eye of a major.

Peak season......



Have a hurricane and a swirl...
Quoting opal92nwf:
Look at that east of the Yucatan
Is that a circulation forming north of the Yucatan peninsula.
Quoting Andrebrooks:
Is that a circulation forming north of the Yucatan peninsula.


Pretty favorable in that vicinity.

Models show development.
675. emguy
Quoting 643. Stormwatch247:



That is interesting! On September 29, 1915, a powerful hurricane made landfall in southeastern, LA. It was one of the strongest hurricanes recorded in New Orleans. I wonder if that GFS forecast looks at past climatology?


It doesn't....and we really shouldn't be looking past 3 days or so in the models for any type of realistic development potential in the tropics either.
Getting favorable in the gulf again.
Quoting 660. 62901IL:


YES!!!!!!!! YES!!!!!!! 2013, you've been beat by a landslide.


It's hardly a "landslide". 2014 is putting on a marginally better display. And that's saying a lot, since 2013 is about as low as you can go as far as the major basins are concerned.

Here's what we need for landslide victories over previous seasons. Have first light on ominous Odile.

Quoting QPhysFTW:


It's hardly a "landslide". 2014 is putting on a marginally better display. And that's saying a lot, since 2013 is about as low as you can go as far as the major basins are concerned.

Here's what we need for landslide victories over previous seasons. Have first light on ominous Odile.



A bit unfair to put the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season up against the 2014 Pacific hurricane season, they're basically having their equal to 2005.
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:




If you look at the visible loop of the GOM you can still see 92L spinning (27N/88W).
It's nothing but a naked swirl, but it can be found spinning in the central GOM if you look hard enough.
Quoting Andrebrooks:
Is that a circulation forming north of the Yucatan peninsula.


There looks to be an ULL over the northern coast of the Yucatan.
Quoting 649. StormTrackerScott:

Waves by to the 2015 hurricane season. Maybe 2016 we will have a showing.



Don't be so fast to write off anything.Remember that super el nino that was suppose to occur this summer?.Yeah..
Quoting 678. CybrTeddy:



A bit unfair to put the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season up against the 2014 Pacific hurricane season, they're basically having their equal to 2005.


I didn't compare the Atl and EPac seasons. I just used Odile as an example of the type of cyclone I'd like to see in the Atlantic -- a solid, symmetric major with gorgeous eye and spiral banding -- before I'm willing to even acknowledge we've broken free of the 2013 curse. I don't see it happening though.
Quoting QPhysFTW:


I didn't compare the Atl and EPac seasons. I just used Odile as an example of the type of cyclone I'd like to see in the Atlantic -- a solid, symmetric major with gorgeous spiral banding -- before I'm willing to even acknowledge we've broken free of the 2013 curse. I don't see it happening though.


We'll have to see if Edouard can manage to take advantage of the favorable conditions ahead of it. Most of the intensity models are saying 90-95 knots by 36 hours before steady weakening, so I expect that'll be what the NHC raises the intensity forecast to here shortly.
No..East pacific is having their equivalent to 1992..
Quoting 684. CybrTeddy:



We'll have to see if Edouard can manage to take advantage of the favorable conditions ahead of it. Most of the intensity models are saying 90-95 knots by 36 hours before steady weakening, so I expect that'll be what the NHC raises the intensity forecast to here shortly.


I remain pessimistic. Edouard is really struggling to put up a complete ring of deep eyewall convection. Any time I look, at least half of the eyewall convection is really shallow.

I don't think it has a chance at major status until stops sucking in that dry mid-level air. I don't know if that will ever happen. I can buy Category 2 max, tops.

Quoting QPhysFTW:


I remain pessimistic. Edouard is really struggling to put up a complete ring of deep eyewall convection. Any time I look, at least half of the eyewall convection is really shallow.

I don't think it has a chance at major status until stops sucking in that dry mid-level air. I don't know if that will ever happen.



It probably won't be unable to, but I've seen storms with less convection become solid Category 2 hurricanes.
Definitely hurricane material. Good chance to become the first (and probably only) major hurricane of 2014.

I'm still a bit bored with this tropical season. Last season was a bust. Now this one is... well, not much to speak of -yet. (Yawn, snore)

Sort of like a sports fan enduring a bad season: "Oh Just Wait 'till next year!"

At least the Pacific is putting on a show.
Edouard is now forecast to become the first major hurricane in the Atlantic since 2012.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 24.7N 50.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 25.8N 52.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 27.1N 54.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 28.5N 56.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 30.1N 56.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 34.5N 54.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 39.4N 47.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 19/1200Z 41.7N 38.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 14 2014

...EDOUARD STRENGTHENS INTO THE FOURTH HURRICANE OF THE 2014
ATLANTIC SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 50.7W
ABOUT 915 MI...1470 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 24.7N 50.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 25.8N 52.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 27.1N 54.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 28.5N 56.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 30.1N 56.7W 105 KT 120 MPH

72H 17/1200Z 34.5N 54.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 39.4N 47.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 19/1200Z 41.7N 38.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart




That's looking pretty scary now huh.

here comes a whole bunch of sticky....
688. MAweatherboy1
2:51 PM GMT on September 14, 2014

I'm not sure if you can see my post.But if you don't have me on ignore if upper level winds ever decrease in the N.W caribbean and we get a disturbance to sit and fester and rapidly deepen I could see out other major coming fro that part of the western Atlantic.But this is 2014 so what would normally seem like a fair chance of getting a formidable storm may be slim.
vis.loop 93 looks like a cyclone
there is a recon heading for Odile

Link
"Given the well-developed structure noted in the Windsat imagery, a
very favorable poleward outflow pattern forecast to develop by all
of the models, and anomalously warm SSTs of 29.5C ahead of the
cyclone, there appears to be no physical reason why Edouard should
not continue to strengthen and eventually become a major hurricane

over the next 2 days or so.
"

Don't forget it's 2014, Stewart.
Quoting 696. islander101010:

vis.loop 93 looks like a cyclone




there is no 93L its now EX 93L
36H 16/0000Z 28.5N 56.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 30.1N 56.7W 105 KT 120 MPH


Quoting 695. washingtonian115:

688. MAweatherboy1
2:51 PM GMT on September 14, 2014

I'm not sure if you can see my post.But if you don't have me on ignore if upper level winds ever decrease in the N.W caribbean and we get a disturbance to sit and fester and rapidly deepen I could see out other major coming fro that part of the western Atlantic.But this is 2014 so what would normally seem like a fair chance of getting a formidable storm may be slim.

Nah, I wouldn't put you on ignore. My ignore list is mostly comprised of assorted handles of JFV and that guy from Florida who always complains that no storms ever hit him. We'll have to watch the NW Caribbean in a week or two with the MJO possibly moving through. At the least there should be an increase in tropical moisture there around that time. Shear will probably prevent tropical development but who knows.
Quoting 701. MAweatherboy1:


Nah, I wouldn't put you on ignore. My ignore list is mostly comprised of assorted handles of JFV and that guy from Florida who always complains that no storms ever hit him. We'll have to watch the NW Caribbean in a week or two with the MJO possibly moving through. At the least there should be an increase in tropical moisture there around that time. Shear will probably prevent tropical development but who knows.


Which one?? :)
Quoting 701. MAweatherboy1:


Nah, I wouldn't put you on ignore. My ignore list is mostly comprised of assorted handles of JFV and that guy from Florida who always complains that no storms ever hit him. We'll have to watch the NW Caribbean in a week or two with the MJO possibly moving through. At the least there should be an increase in tropical moisture there around that time. Shear will probably prevent tropical development but who knows.
Or maybe we'll have another Karen repeat :)

Forecast image of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane season.


leftovers of 94 near odessa texas
Quoting 643. Stormwatch247:



That is interesting! On September 29, 1915, a powerful hurricane made landfall in southeastern, LA. It was one of the strongest hurricanes recorded in New Orleans. I wonder if that GFS forecast looks at past climatology?


It does not. The GFS (and all other major models) are dynamic solvers of the equations governing the atmosphere's evolution. These are a system of partial differential equations and the problem mathematically is an Initial Value Problem where the initial conditions are supplied and the differential equations are integrated forward in time to produce a forecast. The problem is mathematically ill conditioned and errors in the initial conditions and approximations used to integrate, amplify exponentially with forecast time until the forecast is useless. We've exceeded what was thought possible a few decades ago and it's utterly amazing to me that deterministic forecasts are sometimes good to seven to ten days.

A great deal of research and numerical analysis work is currently going into creating better initial conditions which is mathematically MUCH more difficult than integrating these equations.
Quoting 702. CybrTeddy:



Which one?? :)


Kori?
Quoting 706. georgevandenberghe:



It does not. The GFS (and all other major models) are dynamic solvers of the equations governing the atmosphere's evolution. These are a system of partial differential equations and the problem mathematically is an Initial Value Problem where the initial conditions are supplied and the differential equations are integrated forward in time to produce a forecast. The problem is mathematically ill conditioned and errors in the initial conditions and approximations used to integrate, amplify exponentially with forecast time until the forecast is useless. We've exceeded what was thought possible a few decades ago and it's utterly amazing to me that deterministic forecasts are sometimes good to seven to ten days.

A great deal of research and numerical analysis work is currently going into creating better initial conditions which is mathematically MUCH more difficult than integrating these equations.
I guess the 1915 storm would be integrated into the GFS to the extent by which it has influenced [formed a part of the] research into initial conditions.... I'm sure quite a great deal of analysis of conditions in past seasons has gone into the development of the models we use today. There seems to be an obvious parallel between more / better data [historical] and improved forecast ability.

This is why AGW presents some challenges for wx forecasters, since it seems likely to present them with conditions which have not been common in the current dataset which they have been acquiring for the ATL since about 1850 or so.


something spining here
Quoting 708. VAbeachhurricanes:



Kori?
Wrong state.


20 west!!!
One of many webcams from Cabo to watch Odile's fury(if they stay operational).


Link
Just a few minutes ago the International Space Station lined itself up perfectly with Hurricane Edouard.
Edouard continues to benefit from the naturally diffulent southerly wind shear on the eastern side of the TUTT axis north of the Greater Antilles. Although the upper level outflow is not as intense as it was a few days ago, it's still impressive near about 35-40 knots, and Edouard is trying ever so slightly to establish an outflow channel in the northwestern quadrant of the storm w/ the upper level low to its west.


Edouard likely struggled for a time yesterday with sustaining convection due to its passage over a sliver of cool sub-28C SSTs associated with the Canary current that runs on the windward side of the European & African continents, however at the present time it is traversing over some of the warmest waters in the entire Atlantic basin (~29C). As I mentioned a few days ago, the pattern for Edouard given climatology in El Nino yrs, the behavior of the hurricane season thus far (all hurricanes thus far in the subtropics, very characteristic of an El Nino), an oncoming CCKW, & the upper level dynamics & SSTs that laid ahead of it, argued for significant intensification into a robust hurricane which appears to be on the table. This system will likely continue to intensify for about the next 72 hours up through extratropical transition as it situates itself once again into the favored right entrance region of a rather powerful jet streak in excess of 110 knots that will be racing off to its north on the equatorial side of an oncoming trough base that's currently positioned over Manitoba & the upper midwest. This will providing more upper level support even as the storm moves north of the Gulf Stream into colder waters that aren't as conducive for barotropic/latent heat of condensation processes. In essence the storm will be placing itself on the baroclinic side of the subtropical jet where mid-latitude forcing begins to expose its quasi-stedfast hand on tropical cyclone evolution...
The only area of interest I see right now is off the coast of North and South Carolina. As we all know, pressure drops can occur there quickly. I know when nc and I said that a low might form there and move north as a strong system 6 days before Arthur formed, we didn't have too many takers. But is should be watched. If I am wrong, I'll eat stuffed Cornish Hens with Orange glaze.

Whenever Edouard manages to establish its eye on visible satellite, I really wouldn't be surprised to see some modest (maybe quick?) intensification.

720. SLU
At last!



Looks like 16-E is close to TS strength? 
so wish is 97E ???

Quoting 718. Grothar:

The only area of interest I see right now is off the coast of North and South Carolina. As we all know, pressure drops can occur there quickly. I know when nc and I said that a low might form there and move north as a strong system 6 days before Arthur formed, we didn't have too many takers. But is should be watched. If I am wrong, I'll eat stuffed Cornish Hens with Orange glaze.




You're a Cornish Hen!
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Odile could take a very dangerous and damaging path. I hope folks along the western coast area ready..

Swell already pushing in.

Quoting 715. unknowncomic:

One of many webcams from Cabo to watch Odile's fury(if they stay operational).


Link
727. JLPR2
Everyone is blown away by Ed, first hurricane that could reach Major strength since Sandy.

ex-93L: Hey, I'm here too!

Quoting 720. SLU:

At last!




Agreed.... lol ... Edouard is the most hurricane-looking system we've seen in the ATL all season... lol ...
CMC{GEM} model has something off the southeast coast in 5-6-7 days.................................
Navy has it also in about 6-7 days off the southeast coastline...........................
Webcam at Cabo. Waves getting larger and larger.

Link
Quoting 640. Sfloridacat5:

06Z GFS has backed off of the GOM system until the end of its run (312 hours).
That's in wishcasting territory.

It has been showing a GOM system for two days now, but anything that far out can not be trusted. Worth watching for fun, but can't be trusted.

Yesterday the GFS had the Caribbean Low being pulled up into the GOM by the front dropping down across the Southern Plains next weekend/early next week.
Now that trough is weaker and doesn't pick anything up out of the Caribbean.

The Caribbean Low waits and doesn't start coming up until later in the week 10 days from now (240 hours) and doesn't get into the GOM until (312 hours), 13 days from now.

The system is stronger because its had more time to sit down in the Caribbean, but it's to far out to be trusted.

At least it's not taking the system into Mexico like all the other systems this season.







Yeah, I've seen the recent trend on the recent model runs as well. Florida just can't buy a single dang major rain event this summer, even the dang southwest that averages mostly less than 10 inches of rain a year has had a major widespread rain event. This is probably the most boring meteorological summer I've ever seen in Florida.

When the models do show something interesting affecting us, they always back off of it. I guess that's why many spots in West Central and Southwest Florida have seen one of their driest summers on record, while the rest of the area is around only 50% of normal rainfall for the summer so far. There has not been one good several day stretch of widespread heavy rain in Central Florida this summer, or anywhere in Florida for that matter. Not one. We normally even see a few of them during the dry season, but to not have any in the rainy season is crazy.

We've already had our driest summer on record here. Man, I bet Scott is really upset that the GFS back off its big rains for us, even more than me probably, lol.