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Halfway Point of Hurricane Season Arrives; TD 6 Forms in Central Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:04 PM GMT on September 11, 2014

September 11 marks the halfway point of the Atlantic hurricane season (based on the past 100 years of data, 1914-2013)--and we're doing much better than usual so far. Only four named storms have formed, with three becoming hurricanes (and no major hurricanes.) An average Atlantic hurricane season has 6 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 1 intense hurricane by the mid-point of the season. The four storms so far in 2014 have inflicted much less punishment than usual for half of a hurricane season. Hurricane Arthur made landfall in North Carolina as a Category 2 hurricane then blasted the Maritime Provinces of Canada as a powerful hurricane-force extratropical storm, but damage was low by Category 2 hurricane standards--just $14 million, with most of the damage occurring in Canada. Hurricane Bertha caused two deaths along the U.S. East Coast due to rough surf and strong rip currents, but did insignificant damage as it recurved out to sea, just off the coast. Hurricane Cristobal also did minimal damage, but killed a total of seven people--three swimmers in the U.S., and flood victims in Haiti (2), the Dominican Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. Tropical Storm Dolly, which made landfall in northeastern Mexico on September 2 with 50 mph winds and torrential rains, killed one person and did millions in damage. Residents of Hurricane Alley shouldn't assume the rest of the season will end with a whimper, though. All it takes is one bad hurricane to make a ruinous hurricane season. Recall that 2012's worst storm--Hurricane Sandy--didn't occur until the third week of October!



Bahamas disturbance 92L struggling to develop
A small area of low pressure over the Northwest Bahamas (Invest 92L) has become more organized since Wednesday, but has limited heavy thunderstorm activity. Long range radar out of Melbourne, Florida shows that 92L has low-level spiral bands with a good degree of rotation, and satellite loops show that a small surface circulation has developed. However, strong upper level winds out of the north-northeast are creating a high 20 - 25 knots of wind shear, and the atmosphere is quite dry to the north, making development of 92L unlikely today and Friday. The current westwards 5 - 10 mph motion of 92L will carry the disturbance over Florida on Friday, and the storm should emerge over the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Ocean temperatures are a very warm 30°C (86°F) over the Eastern Gulf, but the presence of dry air and high wind shear of 15 - 25 knots should keep any development of 92L over the Gulf of Mexico slow. The disturbance will likely bring rains of 1 - 3" to much of Florida through Sunday. One of the three reliable computer models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the UKMET model, does develop 92L over the Gulf of Mexico. In their 2 pm EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system 2-day and 5-day odd of development odds of 30% and 30%, respectively.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 92L off the coast of Florida, taken at approximately 11:30 am EDT Thursday September 11, 2014. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Central Atlantic Tropical Depression Six not a threat to land
Tropical Depression Six has formed in the Central Atlantic about 750 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands, and is headed northwest at about 15 mph. Satellite images show TD 6 has a moderate amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity, and these thunderstorms are becoming more organized. The disturbance is embedded in a moderately moist air mass, has marginally warm (SSTs) of 27°C (81°F) beneath it, and is experiencing light wind shear. These conditions favor continued development. The 8 am EDT Thursday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would remain light to moderate (5 - 20 knots) and the atmosphere at mid-levels of the atmosphere (between 500 - 700 mb) would remain moderately moist this week, favoring development. TD 6 does not appear to be a long-range threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands, U.S. East Coast, or Bermuda. It remains to be seen if TD 6 will be a threat to the Canadian Maritime Provinces late next week.


Figure 2. Latest satellite image of Tropical Depression Six.

Flood threat to Mexico from Tropical Storm Odile diminishes
In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Odile formed on Wednesday morning a few hundred miles southwest of Acapulco. Satellite loops show that Odile has a large area of heavy thunderstorms that are slowly organizing, but the heavy rains of the storm are remaining just offshore of the Pacific coast of Mexico. If Odile follows the current projections from our two top track models, the GFS and European, these rains will remain offshore as the storm moves northwest, parallel to the coast. If the storm deviates to the right of its expected path, it will be capable of dumping 5 - 10" of rain along the coast from Acapulco to Puerto Vallarta.

Why has the Eastern Pacific been so active?
It's been a remarkably active hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific; Odile's formation gives the basin 15 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 7 intense hurricanes so far this year. An average Eastern Pacific hurricane season sees 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes during the entire year, with about 2/3 of that activity occurring by September 9. Since July, the Eastern Pacific has had ocean temperatures about 0.6°C (1°F) above average and wind shear about 20% below average. The region has been dominated by moist, rising air and low pressure, leading to above average vertical instability. All of these factors are favorable for an active hurricane season. The Atlantic and Eastern Pacific are usually out of phase with their hurricane seasons--when one is active, the other is inactive. This occurs because when the large-scale atmospheric circulation favors rising air and low pressure over one ocean basin, there must be high pressure and dry, sinking air elsewhere to compensate--which typically occurs over the neighboring ocean basin, suppressing hurricane activity there.


Figure 3. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) over the Eastern Pacific in 2014 (blue line) compared to average (black line.) SSTs have been up to 0.6°C (1°F) above average during the summer, increasing the potential for tropical storm formation. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS/CIRA.


Figure 4. Vertical wind shear (in knots) over the Eastern Pacific in 2014 (blue line) compared to average (black line.) Wind shear has been about 20% below average during the summer, increasing the potential for tropical storm formation. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS/CIRA.


Figure 5. Vertical instability over the Eastern Pacific in 2014 (blue line) compared to average (black line.) The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere. Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Instability has been higher than average during most of the summer, increasing the potential for tropical storm formation. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS/CIRA.

Tropical Depression 15 forms east of the Philippines
In the Western Pacific, Tropical Depression Fifteen is organizing in the waters east of the Philippines, and is on course to intensify into a typhoon and potentially affect the northern portion of the Philippines' Luzon Island on Sunday. TD 15 will then potentially impact China early next week.

Twenty-five years ago on this date
On September 11, 1989, Tropical Depression Twelve continued to grow more organized, building a large region of heavy thunderstorms near its center. Two hooking spiral bands formed, prompting the National Hurricane Center to upgrade the depression to a tropical storm in their 11 am advisory. The new storm's name: Hugo. Tropical Storm Hugo headed westward across the open Atlantic at 20 mph, still four days from the Lesser Antilles Islands.

That day at NOAA's Miami-based Office of Aircraft Operations--the hurricane hunting division of NOAA--I joked with my colleagues about the fearsome new storm with the same name as the director of NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Marine Laboratory (AOML), Hugo Bezdek. AOML housed the offices of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division, whose scientists would decide whether or not our hurricane hunting group would intercept the new storm once it got close enough to the Lesser Antilles Islands. Even if Hugo was a dud, we figured we'd be flying the storm for sure, since it shared the same first name as the big boss of the hurricane research scientists. We did not suspect at all that this storm named Hugo would go on to be the most destructive hurricane ever seen in the Atlantic.


Figure 6. AVHRR visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Hugo taken on September 11, 1989. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

Hurricane expert Steve Gregory has a more detailed look at 92L and the rest of the tropics in his latest post.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 998. GTstormChaserCaleb:

That is an odd track indeed. I wonder if it was a backdoor cold front that pushed it down towards FL. and the Continental Ridge trapped it and pushed it west.


Yeah, it could be, backdoor fronts and their split flow are weird.
Absolutely pouring here in Deerfield Beach, Fl!


South Florida Radar
Link
1003. Dakster
A storm going to Texas would be a good thing, unless the Texas death ridge takes it out... As Taz would say *poof*.
Quoting Jedkins01:
I find it funny how as soon as a system that might affect Florida looks promising(and when I say promising, I mean comically, grasping at straws promising), some of the most extreme shear I've seen in a while shows up, its not not like it wasn't expected, but still.


L-U-C-K... eventually will end.
Quoting 985. AtHomeInTX:



This one. Which was just an odd track all the way around. All I can imagine is some giant ridge it rounded.



The 1919 Florida Keys hurricane did too. Not sure if there are any others.
Quoting 1002. yankees440:

Absolutely pouring here in Deerfield Beach, Fl!


South Florida Radar
Link



Yeah this weak little low has some efficient rain producers due to the very deep moisture, I was looking at some of the rain reports and they are higher than I would have thought, some places have had 1 to 1.25 in places that I would have thought would have had maybe 0.25 tops.

You could end up getting a lot with it moving that slow.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah this weak little low has some efficient rain producers due to the very deep moisture, I was looking at some of the rain reports and they are higher than I would have thought, some places have had 1 to 1.25 in places that I would have thought would have had maybe 0.25 tops.

You could end up getting a lot with it moving that slow.


Looks to be reforming over the same area (or training)?

I'm going to take a drive and see if there is any flooding locally...Be back in 30min or so with updates
Quoting 1003. Dakster:

A storm going to Texas would be a good thing, unless the Texas death ridge takes it out... As Taz would say *poof*.


Texas Death Ridge never really got a foothold here this summer. Ridges built up and slid off, and it was hot in August, but nothing like the 60-day-long infernos we're accustomed to since 2011 that zapped Don while still offshore.
Quoting 12george1:

The 1919 Florida Keys hurricane did too. Not sure if there are any others.


Yeah, I was thinking over the mainland of Florida. I think The 1900 Galveston storm got real close to the keys. I'm sure it impacted them.
I want to wake up to Tropical Storm Fay and be able to draw a forecast track in my blog pointing towards southern Louisiana.

Too bad I can't objectively do that right now. :(
Quoting 1004. hurricane23:



L-U-C-K... eventually will end.


The pattern already shows a return to more normal synoptic pressure patterns this year. Any other year and I would've said 92L would have recurved in its current position, even if it was literally over the Florida coast.

If conditions were a little more favorable, we would have very likely already had a hurricane or two on the US. A lot less troughing this year.
Quoting redwagon:


Texas Death Ridge never really got a foothold here this summer. Ridges built up and slid off, and it was hot in August, but nothing like the 60-day-long infernos we're accustomed to since 2011 that zapped Don while still offshore.


Yeah, a lot of Texas got more rain this summer than in the last few years combined. As you said it's either all or nothing when it does come. Looks like the BOC keeps wanting to send moisture to Texas. Let's hope the rains get to those who still need them. We're actually good here.
Quoting KoritheMan:
I want to wake up to Tropical Storm Fay and be able to draw a forecast track in my blog pointing towards southern Louisiana.

Too bad I can't objectively do that right now. :(


Well, the CMC takes it into central Louisiana now before slamming on the brakes and heading east. Ya never know...
Quoting 1013. AtHomeInTX:



Well, the CMC takes it into central Louisiana now before slamming on the brakes and heading east. Ya never know...


Honestly, anywhere along the Gulf Coast could be at risk. I have a hard time buying a solution east of Pensacola and south of Corpus Christi, though.
Q: 1020, AHIT: We still need 40" up here in the Hill Country to fill our lakes and aquifers. But we're taking what we're getting with relief and joy. Glad to hear your area is in the clear.



More moisture all around for everybody, and with Summer sun gone and not evaping it off, maybe we can retain it.
1016. Dakster
I'd be watching Aurora's right now if it wasn't so darn cloudy out... Ugh...
1017. Dakster
Quoting 1008. redwagon:



Texas Death Ridge never really got a foothold here this summer. Ridges built up and slid off, and it was hot in August, but nothing like the 60-day-long infernos we're accustomed to since 2011 that zapped Don while still offshore.


Good to know and good for you. This storm might bring much needed relief.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Honestly, anywhere along the Gulf Coast could be at risk. I have a hard time buying a solution east of Pensacola and south of Corpus Christi, though.


Yeah, as usual, I have no idea. :)
West winds at Fort Lauderdale suggests there is still a small closed wind circulation with 92L. Passage over peninsula Florida is liable to disrupt the fragility of the southern portion of the circulation, however.

We'll see what it does in the marginal Gulf.
Quoting redwagon:
Q: 1020, AHIT: We still need 40" up here in the Hill Country to fill our lakes and aquifers. But we're taking what we're getting with relief and joy. Glad to hear your area is in the clear.



More moisture all around for everybody, and with Summer sun gone and not evaping it off, maybe we can retain it.


Hope you can get the rain you and your lakes need. I'm hoping something comes your way! Looks like the middle of the state has missed out most. Been down right drippy here this summer. lol. and though this should be normal it seems like a long time since it was.
Quoting 953. Grothar:


GRO where did you get that from? stop, your scaring the kids!!!
Ok...trying to release a blog update (talks about the three hot spots in the Atlantic). Trouble is I can't get any images uploaded because of Photobucket.

Phtobucket is the WORST WEBSITE I HAVE EVER USED....every time I upload photos its super glitchy...takes WAY too long (which causes me an extra hour in making blog updates)...and I can't take it anymore. Is their any other site where you can store images?

P.S...problem with using Wunderground is you have to wait for images to get approved....
Quoting 1022. NCHurricane2009:

Ok...trying to release a blog update (talks about the three hot spots in the Atlantic). Trouble is I can't get any images uploaded because of Photobucket.

Phtobucket is the WORST WEBSITE I HAVE EVER USED....every time I upload photos its super glitchy...takes WAY too long (which causes me an extra hour in making blog updates)...and I can't take it anymore. Is their any other site where you can store images?

P.S...problem with using Wunderground is you have to wait for images to get approved....



imgur, best pic hosting site out there
Well, looks like more moisture headed to south Texas anyway. Though I'm not too sure what the WPC is saying about it. lol.

PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: NON-12Z ECMWF FOR THE INITIAL
WAVE...THEREAFTER THE 00Z GFS
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE

UNDERNEATH A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL BE A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES MIGRATING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TOWARD FAR
EASTERN MEXICO/EXTREME SOUTH TX. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE 12Z
ECMWF SUITE...ALL MODELS SHOW ENERGY MOVING TOWARD EASTERN MEXICO
LATE FRIDAY. LATER ON...ANOTHER DEFINED WAVE WILL APPROACH A
SIMILAR REGION WITH THE 12Z UKMET BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
ITS SOLUTION CARRYING A WELL DEFINED IMPULSE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
OVERALL...WOULD PREFER TO NOT USE THE 12Z ECMWF EARLY ON AS IT
LACKS AN INITIAL WAVE WHICH IS SHOWN IN ALL OF THE MODELS. THIS
LEADS TO LARGE SCALE DIFFERENCES IN THE QPF DISTRIBUTION INLAND.
THEREAFTER...WILL LEAN ON THE 00Z GFS AS IT SEEMS TO PROVIDE A
SOLUTION CONSISTENT WITH THE MEANS. CONFIDENCE WILL BE BELOW
AVERAGE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY PRESENT.


...EASTERLY WAVE TRACKING FROM SOUTH FL TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...

PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

A PRONOUNCED EASTERLY WAVE WILL MIGRATE FROM SOUTH FL TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NCEP GUIDANCE
IS A TAD FASTER WITH THIS EVOLUTION WHILE THE 12Z CMC INDICATES A
MORE DEVELOPED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE 12Z CMC BECOMES
RATHER OUTLYING AS IT LIFTS A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. EVENTUALLY THE 12Z ECMWF CATCHES UP TO
THE INITIALLY QUICKER 00Z NAM. WILL COMBINE THESE TWO SOLUTIONS
FOR NOW PENDING ADDITIONAL 00Z GUIDANCE.
Quoting 1022. NCHurricane2009:

Ok...trying to release a blog update (talks about the three hot spots in the Atlantic). Trouble is I can't get any images uploaded because of Photobucket.

Phtobucket is the WORST WEBSITE I HAVE EVER USED....every time I upload photos its super glitchy...takes WAY too long (which causes me an extra hour in making blog updates)...and I can't take it anymore. Is their any other site where you can store images?

P.S...problem with using Wunderground is you have to wait for images to get approved....


Imgur...?
Quoting 1023. VAbeachhurricanes:




imgur, best pic hosting site out there

Thanks to you...I was able to finish my blog update on Edouard...92L...and the eastern Atlantic tropical wave. Man imgur is far far far better than Photobucket which I will never use again from this day forward.
Quoting 1026. NCHurricane2009:


Thanks to you...I was able to finish my blog update on Edouard...92L...and the eastern Atlantic tropical wave. Man imgur is far far far better than Photobucket which I will never use again from this day forward.


dude everybody uses imgur

it's like...

omg
1028. wxhatt
92L has developed a split personality!!

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014.
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Edouard, located about a thousand miles west of the Cape Verde Islands.
1. Shower and thunderstorm activity is currently limited in association with an area of low pressure located about 70 miles east-northeast of West Palm Beach, Florida. Strong upper-level winds and interaction with the Florida peninsula will likely inhibit development of this system today while it moves slowly west- southwestward across the southern Florida peninsula. Once the low moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico conditions could become a little more conducive for tropical cyclone formation over the weekend while the system moves westward at around 10 mph. Regardless of development, this low will bring locally heavy rains to portions of southern Florida and the Florida Keys through today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
2. A tropical wave located south of the Cape Verde Islands is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Any development of this system is expected to be slow to occur during the next couple of days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at around 10 mph. After that time, conditions over the central tropical Atlantic are expected to be unfavorable for development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Edouard are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Edouard are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

Forecaster Brennan
1030. flsky
You don't have to wait for approval. I've done it many times.
Quoting 1022. NCHurricane2009:

Ok...trying to release a blog update (talks about the three hot spots in the Atlantic). Trouble is I can't get any images uploaded because of Photobucket.

Phtobucket is the WORST WEBSITE I HAVE EVER USED....every time I upload photos its super glitchy...takes WAY too long (which causes me an extra hour in making blog updates)...and I can't take it anymore. Is their any other site where you can store images?

P.S...problem with using Wunderground is you have to wait for images to get approved....
Hmmm....I wonder why the 2 AM NHC outlook says that conditions for the eastern Atlantic wave are supposed to get less favorable? I see an upper ridge covering the eastern and central tropical Atlantic in model runs...warm sea surface temps...and Edouard has moistened the environment ahead of this wave. So what gives?
Quoting KoritheMan:
West winds at Fort Lauderdale suggests there is still a small closed wind circulation with 92L. Passage over peninsula Florida is liable to disrupt the fragility of the southern portion of the circulation, however.

We'll see what it does in the marginal Gulf.


West wind 5-10kt's here in Deerfield Beach (about 20 min north of Ft. Lauderdale)

P.S. - Plenty of lightning with a few rumbles of thunder
Quoting 1031. NCHurricane2009:

So what gives?


2014 does.
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS
THE FAR SW GULF AND WILL MOVE INLAND LATER TODAY. A TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER
TODAY WITH WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG IT IN THE SW GULF. FRESH
TO STRONG E-SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 7-9 FT WILL BE TO THE E OF THE
TROUGH PRIOR TO IT MOVING INLAND SAT NIGHT.

AN AREA OF LOW PRES CURRENTLY E-NE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA IS
FORECAST TO MOVE W-SW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
THROUGH LATER TODAY...THEN INTO THE SE AND S CENTRAL GULF
THEREAFTER. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS
GRADUALLY WEAKENING THE LOW INTO AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT CONTINUES
WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...EVENTUALLY MOVING INLAND BY MON NIGHT OR TUE.

MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM NE GEORGIA TO
S CENTRAL TEXAS WILL APPROACH THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS LATER
TODAY...STALLING OUT EITHER JUST OFFSHORE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OR
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
1036. TXCWC
Consensus model tracks seem to be homing in on a central coast of tx track for 92l (possibly around around corpus/rockport) tonight. Latest HWRF shows a 45-50mph storm at the end of its run at the tx coast. A depression to weak tropical storm seems possible to me.


Nice blowup of convection over South Florida near the SW center of 92L.
Shear lessening a bit on the southern side?
Landfall (if you can even call it that) looks to be centered on the Jupiter Inlet area and surrounding areas.
Most convection concentrated to the South and SW of the center.
Quoting yankees440:
Landfall (if you can even call it that)...


I don't think you can call it that.
1043. VR46L
Sun up on Eduardo as he sets sail on his journey to the central Atlantic



2. A tropical wave located south of the Cape Verde Islands is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Any development of
this system is expected to be slow to occur during the next couple
of days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at around 10
mph. After that time, conditions over the central tropical Atlantic
are expected to be unfavorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

MAYBE INVEST 93L
1046. 7544
Quoting 1038. yankees440:



Nice blowup of convection over South Florida near the SW center of 92L.
Shear lessening a bit on the southern side?


is whats left over from 92L in the bahamas that split off going to move west also tia
Good morning and afternoon, everyone. It's Friday! More rain today and this weekend, but that's fine with me, we need some.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Berry Stuffed French Toast with Vanilla Yogurt Sauce, oatmeal with fresh cut berries, bacon and grill cheese sandwich, oversize Breakfast Biscuits with sausage patties and strawberry jelly on the side, thick slices of fried honey ham, cheesy grits, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Tea, regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!
Who do I talk to about getting that TS name spelled correctly? Edouard?

Probably easier for me to just change my own name....I never get to have a storm named after me....
Earliest winter storm across the n plains in 120 years! Barely a ripple in the news. However, if it was a late season heat-wave It would be front page news. Just an observation.
1050. hydrus
1051. hydrus
Quoting 1049. PensacolaDoug:

Earliest winter storm across the n plains in 120 years! Barely a ripple in the news. However, if it was a late season heat-wave It would be front page news. Just an observation.
lol..It because of the G-2 solar flare and GW...i even knew that D.
Wassup with the BOC this morn?
1053. hydrus
Quoting 1052. PensacolaDoug:

Wassup with the BOC this morn?
Upper low.
west winds in the deep tropics does show something but near florida that dont not mean squat. been west winds off and on all summer`
1057. hydrus
Quoting 1054. STORMW2014:

I must admit, I am so longing for major cane, looking out my kitchen window watching trees uprooted, roofs flying off my neighbors houses, water infiltrating through the windows due to wind driven rain. Wow, what a rush that would be. Hopefully the next half of the season my dream will come true.. Got my beer and all my supplies ready, been ready for a long time
Smart...You will need them when 92 hits cat-5 status.
1058. ncstorm
So here's my thinking of the model runs so far..

we bout to have us an old fashion showdown with east vs west with 92L

In the east department, you have UKMET, CMC, Navgem, in the west department you have Euro and GFS..

The Euro is also showing development off the Carolina Coast while the GFS and Navgem is showing another storm moving up from the Yutucan..

You got a tropical storm currently in the Central Atlantic with another potential one behind it..

Potential in the BOC as well..

and to think the season was dead and maybe we might see something in October says NO ONE EVER

and in all this madness mostly all the models are trying to drown the southeast..where is Chief Brody when you need him?



A SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24N94W
19N96W...ACROSS MEXICO...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...
MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 14N TO 21N BETWEEN 90W AND 100W...IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF AN ALREADY-EXISTING
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 22N97W.
Quoting 1055. SFLWeatherman:




Freshening South wind. Lake Worth.
09 12 6:24 am S 18.1 24.1 - - - - 29.91 - 76.1 84.0 - - - -
09 12 6:18 am S 20.0 22.9 - - - - 29.91 - 76.6 84.0 - - - -
09 12 6:12 am S 18.1 24.1 - - - - 29.91 - 76.6 84.0 - - - -
09 12 6:06 am S 15.9 19.0 - - - - 29.91 - 76.6 84.0 - - - -
09 12 6:00 am S 17.1 21.0 - - - - 29.91 -0.01 76.8 84.2 - - - -
09 12 5:54 am S 15.0 18.1 - - - - 29.91 - 76.6 84.2 - - - -
09 12 5:48 am S 17.1 20.0 - - - - 29.91 - 77.0 84.2 - - - -
09 12 5:42 am S 15.9 18.1 - - - - 29.91 - 76.8 84.2 - - - -
09 12 5:36 am S 15.0 19.0 - - - - 29.91 - 77.0 84.2 - - - -
09 12 5:30 am S 15.0 18.1 - - - - 29.91 - 76.8 84.2 - - - -
09 12 5:24 am S 12.0 17.1 - - - - 29.91 - 76.8 84.2 - - - -
09 12 5:18 am S 12.0 17.1 - - - - 29.91 - 76.8 84.2 - - - -
09 12 5:12 am S 12.0 15.9 - - - - 29.91 - 76.5 84.2 - - -
Good morning everyone! 92L is right over WPB,FL now some 2 to 4 inches of rain has already fallen in some areas in South Florida. From NHC: Highlights for today in S FL: Flooding - Locally heavy rainfall and flooding through tonight will remain possible, especially over areas that are already saturated from earlier rainfall. Tornadoes - An isolated tornado can't be ruled out across the area.
1063. hydrus
1064. MahFL
Quoting 1049. PensacolaDoug:

Earliest winter storm across the n plains in 120 years! Barely a ripple in the news. However, if it was a late season heat-wave It would be front page news. Just an observation.


It's late summer snow, not a winter storm.
It's hard to imagine the scope of the damage in Florida this morning. 92L will probably get retired from the invest list for this.

Surely you're joking or you've never actually been through one. Try multiple weeks without power, without safe water, and see how awesome it is. By the way, your beer is not so awesome warm, especially when your house is nearly 100 degrees inside and the black mold is forming on your drywall. You can always take a cold shower to cool off because there is no warm water, but good luck getting dry afterwards. And those are just the inconveniences. You get to tarp your roof, clean up the damage inside and outside of your home and then you get to go to your workplace and do it all over again!

Quoting 1054. STORMW2014:

I must admit, I am so longing for major cane, looking out my kitchen window watching trees uprooted, roofs flying off my neighbors houses, water infiltrating through the windows due to wind driven rain. Wow, what a rush that would be. Hopefully the next half of the season my dream will come true.. Got my beer and all my supplies ready, been ready for a long time
1067. beell
"Well, somewhere in the Black mining Hills of South Dakota (at an elevation of 4-7,000') lived a young boy named Rocky Racoon"...who was accustomed to September snows.


NWS-Rapid City, SD

Anybody else in the Treasure Coast area last night? The thunder and lightning were incredible off of 92L. Sometimes the thunder went on for multiple minutes. I don't recall anything ever like it before.
1070. MahFL
Quoting 1069. cruzinstephie:

Anybody else in the Treasure Coast area last night? The thunder and lightning were incredible off of 92L. Sometimes the thunder went on for multiple minutes. I don't recall anything ever like it before.


Did you time it with a stopwatch ?, or did it just seem that way ?
Does anyone else see what appears to be a developing system N of the Bahamas? it is maybe just energy blown away from 92L, but it certainly looks like a separate development. Could the MLC that separated from 92L have sustained enough energy of it's own, and gotten into a favorable position, relative to the H to it's north, for better ventilation and less shear, to develop into the major cane some of the models have shown going foward? Or am I seeing things that aren't there?
Maybe it is just me, but 92L looks just sad.

There's our favorite friend--Mr. Shear.

1076. ncstorm
Quoting 1058. ncstorm:

So here's my thinking of the model runs so far..

we bout to have us an old fashion showdown with east vs west with 92L

In the east department, you have UKMET, CMC, Navgem, in the west department you have Euro and GFS..

The Euro is also showing development off the Carolina Coast while the GFS and Navgem is showing another storm moving up from the Yutucan..

You got a tropical storm currently in the Central Atlantic with another potential one behind it..

Potential in the BOC as well..

and to think the season was dead and maybe we might see something in October says NO ONE EVER

and in all this madness mostly all the models are trying to drown the southeast..where is Chief Brody when you need him?






Hi ncstorm, some of the GFS ensembles are cranking out 20" to 30" of rain across FL over the next 16 days. Incredible signal of heavy rain being depicted across not only FL but most of the coastal regions of the SE US. What you are seeing now is that the HPC folks are latching onto this scenario coming as a deep trough digs across the Central US and pulls tons of deep tropical moisture north from the E-Pac.
2. Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located south of
the Cape Verde Islands is showing some signs of organization. This
system, however, is forecast to move westward or west-northwestward
at around 10 mph toward an area unfavorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
1079. ncstorm


Sept 15-25th timeframe looks stormy.
2. Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located south of
the Cape Verde Islands is showing some signs of organization. This
system, however, is forecast to move westward or west-northwestward
at around 10 mph toward an area unfavorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
invest 93L COMING SOON
1082. ncstorm
Quoting 1077. StormTrackerScott:



Hi ncstorm, some of the GFS ensembles are cranking out 20" to 30" of rain across FL over the next 16 days. Incredible signal of heavy rain being depicted across not only FL but most of the coastal regions of the SE US. What you are seeing now is that the HPC folks are latching onto this scenario coming as a deep trough digs across the Central US and pulls tons of deep tropical moisture north from the E-Pac.


and if you throw in a tropical storm/hurricane in the mix well that only can lead to more issues down the road..
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS
THE FAR SW GULF AND WILL MOVE INLAND LATER TODAY. A TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER
TODAY WITH WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG IT IN THE SW GULF. FRESH
TO STRONG E-SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 7-9 FT WILL BE TO THE E OF THE
TROUGH PRIOR TO IT MOVING INLAND SAT NIGHT.
1084. intampa
Quoting 1077. StormTrackerScott:



Hi ncstorm, some of the GFS ensembles are cranking out 20" to 30" of rain across FL over the next 16 days. Incredible signal of heavy rain being depicted across not only FL but most of the coastal regions of the SE US. What you are seeing now is that the HPC folks are latching onto this scenario coming as a deep trough digs across the Central US and pulls tons of deep tropical moisture north from the E-Pac.
when that has happened in the past this year it means no rain for the eastern/southern tampa bay area... even with this low coming so close the local mets are downplaying any rain chances the next few days. its still fun to read those predictions and hope some rain comes of it



THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS
THE FAR SW GULF AND WILL MOVE INLAND LATER TODAY. A TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER
TODAY WITH WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG IT IN THE SW GULF. FRESH
TO STRONG E-SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 7-9 FT WILL BE TO THE E OF THE
TROUGH PRIOR TO IT MOVING INLAND SAT NIGHT.
A TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER
TODAY WITH WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG IT IN THE SW GULF
Looks like some of the early model runs want bring 92 back towards the east once it gets in the gulf.
All that weather in the BOC and the Gulf is going to get sucked up to the north by that trough.

The central Gulf Coast is going to get whammered with rain next week.
Quoting 1054. STORMW2014:

I must admit, I am so longing for major cane, looking out my kitchen window watching trees uprooted, roofs flying off my neighbors houses, water infiltrating through the windows due to wind driven rain. Wow, what a rush that would be. Hopefully the next half of the season my dream will come true.. Got my beer and all my supplies ready, been ready for a long time



Crown Royal, m'friend........goes down smooth, takes the edge off....& needs no ice !!
Quoting 1088. CycloneOz:

All that weather in the BOC and the Gulf is going to get sucked up to the north by that trough.

The central Gulf Coast is going to get whammered with rain next week.


Is whammered a word, if not it should be. Muggy as all get out here in Tampa today. Last couple of mornings have been nice.
Quoting 1084. intampa:

when that has happened in the past this year it means no rain for the eastern/southern tampa bay area... even with this low coming so close the local mets are downplaying any rain chances the next few days. its still fun to read those predictions and hope some rain comes of it


The problem is all of the models are showing this and the reason as the midwest trough is forecast to dig into the Central Gulf causing deep moisture to get pulled north from the E-Pac and merge with a front stalling across the SE US. The signal beiong depicted by the models is one that hasn't been seen so far this year and it looks like it may just verify and if it does FL and the rest of the SE US is in for a heck of a lot of rain.

I got some Winds now! not much but more then i have had the last 2 days
Quoting 1065. MAweatherboy1:

It's hard to imagine the scope of the damage in Florida this morning. 92L will probably get retired from the invest list for this.



Invest 92L: Never forget. ;_;
Super-Arctic Cold Front has slowed down some. Still only expecting highs in the 80s this weekend. 92L missing low level convergence and much upper divergence, but does have low level vorticity, we may find out today if 30º waters realy are the magic elixir for storm development. The models don't seem to think warm water overcomes unfavorable conditions GEFS is not alone.



GEFS is unanimous 92L does nothing noteworthy. I myself doubted NHC for cancelling yesterday's missions and not tasking a plane today when 92L looked halfway decent, but again, they aren't the paid experts for nothing.

1095. pottery
Quoting 1093. Ameister12:


Invest 92L: Never forget. ;_;



Wow. Incredible scenes of Mayhem and Stuff.
Stay safe. I hope your insurance will cover this massive wipeout.

Very sad.
Quoting 1080. Climate175:

Sept 15-25th timeframe looks stormy.
big storm moving up the coast
Quoting 1065. MAweatherboy1:

It's hard to imagine the scope of the damage in Florida this morning. 92L will probably get retired from the invest list for this.

Quoting 1093. Ameister12:


Invest 92L: Never forget. ;_;



ha, ha! y'all made my day!
OK, this week of heightened excitement is pretty lame, really, and not supported by Euro, but 2 consecutive runs of the GFS show action in the Gulf in 10 days. Into fantasy range, but not deep into fantasy range, only two days past the lobotomy when it is reduced from half the Euro resolution to a quarter of the Euro resolution.

Ensemble support.



Probably nothing, but could be the highlight of the 2014 Dr. Master's WU Blog Season if it actually happens.
1099. Pallis1
Quoting 1049. PensacolaDoug:

Earliest winter storm across the n plains in 120 years! Barely a ripple in the news. However, if it was a late season heat-wave It would be front page news. Just an observation.
You are not towing the line. We need to sell eco friendly products at jacked up prices, not snowshoes to the people who put food on our plate.
This Arctic Express is what will be responsible for significant height falls across the East Gulf & Caribbean next week. These height falls should induce low pressure in the NW Caribbbean.

Here is a list of the snowfall totals so far.

THE STORM REPORTS LISTED BELOW ARE IN DESCENDING ORDER AND MAY NOT
NECESSARILY BE THE FINAL STORM REPORTS.


SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
8.00 DOWNTOWN CUSTER SD CUSTER 0800 AM
7.00 MOUNT RUSHMORE SD PENNINGTON 0810 AM
7.00 1 ENE DOWNTOWN CUSTER SD CUSTER 0605 AM
6.00 5 S HILL CITY SD PENNINGTON 0815 AM
6.00 8 NW TERRY PEAK SD LAWRENCE 0750 AM
6.00 2 SSE DEERFIELD RESERVO SD PENNINGTON 0740 AM
5.00 5 ENE DOWNTOWN CUSTER SD CUSTER 0600 AM
5.00 JOHNSON SIDING SD PENNINGTON 0530 AM
4.50 HILL CITY SD PENNINGTON 0852 AM
4.00 1 ENE SUNDANCE WY CROOK 0800 AM
4.00 2 SSE DEERFIELD RESERVO SD PENNINGTON 0400 AM
3.00 7 SW DOWNTOWN RAPID CIT SD PENNINGTON 0800 AM
2.50 1 W DOWNTOWN RAPID CITY SD PENNINGTON 0815 AM
2.00 6 E DEVILS TOWER JUNCTI WY CROOK 0842 AM
2.00 9 ENE DEVILS TOWER JUNC WY CROOK 0840 AM
2.00 ALADDIN WY CROOK 0835 AM
2.00 6 W BEULAH WY CROOK 0824 AM
2.00 5 W WHITEWOOD SD LAWRENCE 0820 AM
2.00 2 W DOWNTOWN SPEARFISH SD LAWRENCE 0815 AM
2.00 3 ESE DOWNTOWN GILLETTE WY CAMPBELL 0750 AM
2.00 4 S DOWNTOWN RAPID CITY SD PENNINGTON 0600 AM
1.50 BEULAH WY CROOK 0855 AM
1.30 12 SW MOSKEE WY WESTON 0800 AM
1.00 FOUR CORNERS WY WESTON 0827 AM
1.00 1 N DOWNTOWN RAPID CITY SD PENNINGTON 0815 AM
1.00 LEAD SD LAWRENCE 0745 AM
0.90 1 NW PIEDMONT SD MEADE 0730 AM
0.90 1 ESE DOWNTOWN RAPID CI SD PENNINGTON 0600 AM

Incredible Cold for September!


Here are the height Falls across the Gulf & NW Caribbean as a result of this Arctic Front.

Quoting 1093. Ameister12:

Invest 92L: Never forget. ;_;


Are you going to submit a claim to your HO Insurance or to FEMA? Maybe you qualify for a generator and MREs for a month.
The sad part Scott is that Artic Express isn't strong enough to push into the GOM and give us a break from the muggy hot weather in the Southeast.
1104. Pallis1
Quoting 1092. SFLWeatherman:

I got some Winds now! not much but more then i have had the last 2 days

Hard to tell, but it looks as though it is headed towards the Shark River. That is a good spot to exit.
Winds from the SSW at 10 to 15mph
Quoting 1102. 69Viking:

The sad part Scott is that Artic Express isn't strong enough to push into the GOM and give us a break from the muggy hot weather in the Southeast.


If want action from the tropics then you don't want that. The position of where the front is stalling is key as it will allow the Gulf to stay open for business and in fact have the best conditions for seeing a system all season come next week.
"1. The broad area of low pressure has moved westward and is now
located over southern Florida just south of Lake Okeechobee. Shower
activity is currently poorly organized, and strong upper-level winds
as well as interaction with land will likely inhibit development of
this system today. Once the low moves over the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico, conditions could become a little more conducive for tropical
cyclone formation over the weekend while the system moves westward
at around 10 mph. Regardless of development, this low will continue
to bring locally heavy rains to portions of southern Florida and the
Florida Keys today and Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent."
I actually did one of them, 148 seconds, and it didn't seem like the longest one. I'm sure it was caused by multiple lightning strikes where the thunder noise rolled together, but still, I don't ever remember experiencing anything like that. I've lived in FL my whole life and been through 3 major hurricanes, countless tropical storms, depressions, etc.

Quoting 1070. MahFL:



Did you time it with a stopwatch ?, or did it just seem that way ?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
332 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014


NEXT WEEK...UPR RIDGE ACROSS THE NRN GULF COAST WL BUILD EWD TO N
AND CENTRAL FL FL MON-TUE. THE AREA WL BE IN A RELATIVELY LIGHT
WIND REGIME WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND BOUNDARY COLLISIONS
INLAND FAVORING BEST CHC OF RAIN AWAY FROM THE COAST...ESP TUE.
SFC RIDGE WL SINK SOUTH TO CENTRAL FL AT MIDWEEK WITH CONTINUATION
OF LIGHT WINDS AND INLAND CONVERGENCE OF SEABREEZES. AT LEAST SCT
POP CHC IS JUSTIFIED. FORECAST BECOMES LESS CERTAIN PAST MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH ADVERTISED BROAD HGHT FALLS OVER THE WRN CARIB
ALONG WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST N OF THE
REGION
. THIS WL LEAD TO A SEASONALLY HIGHER RAIN CHC SHOULD IT
MATERIALIZE.
1110. K8eCane
INTENSE SOLAR STORM TOMORROW FOR THE ENTIRE EARTH....have flashlights and batteries handy
OT- TS Kalmaegi- I prefer the Filipino system of giving TCs that might affect the RP simple names like 'Luis'.

American sounding ames like Luis, Yolanda and Pablo are easier than the JMA names from the UN WMO list from surrounding countries that isn't even alphabetical.

TS Luis.

HWRF has 92L merge with a cold front at day 5 and gives it an extra boost.

Moving east just south of Nola

Quoting 1106. StormTrackerScott:



If want action from the tropics then you don't want that. The position of where the front is stalling is key as it will allow the Gulf to stay open for business and in fact have the best conditions for seeing a system all season come next week.


I don't need any action in the GOM, you can throw a rock to the water where I live! I'm ready for some cool Fall weather like the rest of the country is getting!
Moves past FL and then decides heck I want to make another run at FL.

Quoting 1113. 69Viking:



I don't need any action in the GOM, you can throw a rock to the water where I live! I'm ready for some cool Fall weather like the rest of the country is getting!


Notice the second graph. First time in several years I have seen FL highlighted like this. CPC is expecting historical rainfall in the upper 1/3rd of the historical range across FL and the Gulf. Very impressive!



Quoting 1096. hurricanes2018:

big storm moving up the coast
Yea it seems as if we have a potent storm coming up soon, heavy rainfall and possibly some gusty winds, looks more tropical then coastal.



DOOM!!!
Good Morning. If you are traveling tomorrow by road and rely on your GPS, you might want to have "old school" maps handy in case the solar storm disrupts the GPS satts.

On the Florida low front, no reason to challenge the current NHC forecast with the longer term 40%.........SST's are certainly there but no way to know exactly how shear will rise or fall over the disturbance in the 3-4 day time frame. Here is what it looks like now and the past 24 hour tendency:


Have to say I didn't expect to see winds out of the south this morning, lol. 92 moved quite a bit overnight.
1120. ncstorm
Pouch in the BOC

That 92L is causing havoc! Look at this boat that washed ashore in Ormond by the Sea overnight!


Note the outer bands of....well, I'm calling it Hurricane Edward ....oh, okay, Edouard (sheesh).....

Off to buy some water. Not for the coming storm. I'm just very thirsty and we're almost out.

Good luck to you all.

1122. LargoFl
check out the GFS in 10 days,where would THIS come from I wonder......................................
Quoting 1049. PensacolaDoug:

Earliest winter storm across the n plains in 120 years! Barely a ripple in the news. However, if it was a late season heat-wave It would be front page news. Just an observation.


Earliest in 120 years? What is that based on?
1124. ryang
If I didn't know any better I would say that was a developing system in the BOC.
Quoting 1122. LargoFl:

check out the GFS in 10 days,where would THIS come from I wonder......................................


Look at my post 1100 Largo or go to my blog.
1126. LargoFl
yeah GFS in 10 days..way too far out in time but.............................................
Quoting 1108. cruzinstephie:

I actually did one of them, 148 seconds, and it didn't seem like the longest one. I'm sure it was caused by multiple lightning strikes where the thunder noise rolled together, but still, I don't ever remember experiencing anything like that. I've lived in FL my whole life and been through 3 major hurricanes, countless tropical storms, depressions, etc.




That would mean you listened to nearly 25 miles worth of lightning stroke. The "bolt" all happens at once, the continuation of sound reflects the length and distance from you of that stroke. The fading sound would be the bolt that was increasing in distance, the louder parts are where the bolt is parallel to you and the sound arrives at the same time. You really can "see" in your mind the lightning stroke by listening to its sound attenuation's.
Quoting 1123. FatPenguin:



Earliest in 120 years? What is that based on?


Based on reality. Earliest snow and coldest air in over 120 years to move into the US so early in September. Is what it is.
Quoting 1116. Climate175:

Yea it seems as if we have a potent storm coming up soon, heavy rainfall and possibly some gusty winds, looks more tropical then coastal.
Man if this was winter my inner snow bro would be grinning..But this is fall..and this is 9/10 days out.So I'll take that with loads of salt.
Quoting 1125. StormTrackerScott:



Look at my post 1100 Largo or go to my blog.

It appears that this wave currently near your house will fizzle out. But we do have Edwardo to watch....
1131. ncstorm
Quoting 1124. ryang:

If I didn't know any better I would say that was a developing system in the BOC.




Quoting 1129. washingtonian115:

Man if this was winter my inner snow bro would be grinning..But this is fall..and this is 9/10 days out.So I'll take that with loads of salt.


It fits the mold of what i expect the pattern to be across the US. You know I was the one who called last years pattern across the US when the CPC had above average temps across the US. No one mentions that.
1133. LargoFl
Quoting 1120. ncstorm:

Pouch in the BOC


guess we need to watch that BOC one also..this time of year something there would normally go into tex-mex
Current Gulf SST's:
 


1135. LargoFl
Quoting 1110. K8eCane:

INTENSE SOLAR STORM TOMORROW FOR THE ENTIRE EARTH....have flashlights and batteries handy
yesterday they were warning of power outages etc for saturday
Quoting 1123. FatPenguin:



Earliest in 120 years? What is that based on?

Observations. It's very simple. What do you think?
Quoting 1128. StormTrackerScott:



Based on reality. Earliest snow and coldest air in over 120 years to move into the US so early in September. Is what it is.

Some people just have a hard time comprehending that Jeff Scott.
Quoting 1129. washingtonian115:

Man if this was winter my inner snow bro would be grinning..But this is fall..and this is 9/10 days out.So I'll take that with loads of salt.
Scott was right on when he said these things would happen, unlike some people I see just laughing.
PIREP from the Miami Int'l Airport: Dark wall of water to the west is moving south. Line of growing CBs over the ocean the moving north. High overcast at the airport with clear skies to the east. 92L is very confused at the moment, but it seems like it wants to get a name...maybe over the GOM.
Quoting 1138. Climate175:

Scott was right on when he said these things would happen, unlike some people I see just laughing.

Jeff Scott has been right on all season. He is one of the best forecasters on here by far.
Quoting 1080. Climate175:

Sept 15-25th timeframe looks stormy.


Very boring here :-(
1144. hydrus
Quoting 1121. EdwardinAlaska:

That 92L is causing havoc! Look at this boat that washed ashore in Ormond by the Sea overnight!


Note the outer bands of....well, I'm calling it Hurricane Edward ....oh, okay, Edouard (sheesh).....

Off to buy some water. Not for the coming storm. I'm just very thirsty and we're almost out.

Good luck to you all.


And i thought cat-5 were bad.
1145. LargoFl
CMC has said all along, 92L goes to hurricane,crosses northern fla, then up the east coast.....
Code orange yesterday. Down to code yellow today. Tomorrow down to 0%. This entity won't stand a chance one in the GOM with the high shear levels.

Those days of those cat 5 Rita and Katrina's spinning around in the bathtub GOM waters are long gone...

1147. 882MB


Good morning everyone, I'm very impressed with P31L. looks like a TD already, if it can stay far enough south probably won't be affected much by Edouard's outflow, like Ive been saying the last couple of days when models really developed this system. Im going to watch even though NHC says it will run into an unfavorable environment.
Quoting 1132. StormTrackerScott:



It fits the mold of what i expect the pattern to be across the US. You know I was the one who called last years pattern across the US when the CPC had above average temps across the US. No one mentions that.

What's your rain gauge say so far. My penthouse up in Waukegan has 4.55" already this month!! o:)
After the fish comes the bust :

2. Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located south of
the Cape Verde Islands is showing some signs of organization. This
system, however, is forecast to move westward or west-northwestward
at around 10 mph toward an area unfavorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Quoting 1129. washingtonian115:

Man if this was winter my inner snow bro would be grinning..But this is fall..and this is 9/10 days out.So I'll take that with loads of salt.
I was thinking that same thing, what if that was snow...
Quoting 1118. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning. If you are traveling tomorrow by road and rely on your GPS, you might want to have "old school" maps handy in case the solar storm disrupts the GPS satts.

On the Florida low front, no reason to challenge the current NHC forecast with the longer term 40%.........SST's are certainly there but no way to know exactly how shear will rise or fall over the disturbance in the 3-4 day time frame. Here is what it looks like now and the past 24 hour tendency:




Very true. Great observations.
My hopes is high I think we will be seeing Fay in the Gulf very soon
Shear is crazy high in GOM.
Quoting 1110. K8eCane:

INTENSE SOLAR STORM TOMORROW FOR THE ENTIRE EARTH....have flashlights and batteries handy

And roman noddles.
stormtop was lucky yrs ago. rapper scotts forecasting is pure skill.
Quoting 1102. 69Viking:

The sad part Scott is that Artic Express isn't strong enough to push into the GOM and give us a break from the muggy hot weather in the Southeast.

How do you feel about number 69 playing on the lakefront. They are going to get their doors blown off Sunday night up in Frisco. Great football weather on the mistake on the lake today. I'll tell you that much. Autumn came early this year....
This is what it would give us if it was winter, look in eastern Canada.
1158. pcola57
Quoting 1049. PensacolaDoug:

Earliest winter storm across the n plains in 120 years! Barely a ripple in the news. However, if it was a late season heat-wave It would be front page news. Just an observation.


Here's some FACTS for you Doug..

"Scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Thursday confirmed California has had the hottest year since they started keeping records 120 years ago, in 1895."

NOAA National Climatic Data Center..

So we are up to the E storm in the Atlantic and it's Sept 12th. That's running about average Folks. Say 4 more storms just year and we make it to the letter I. That's a good season.


p34L need to be watch
1163. pcola57
Quoting 1160. CumberlandPlateau:


California is in the Plains??? Really?


No it's not in the Plains..
Just an "observation" to add to his "observation"..
Mine with FACTS however..
Would love to see Edward at 15N 55W...


cold weather come down from the north makes very high wind shear because of the jet stream
Hurricane Ivan - 10 years on - Cayman Islands.
Not totally weather oriented but displaying resilience

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J34HWg-NOcE&featur e=youtu.be
1167. jdukes
New invest 93-L



we are going to have invest 93L SOON! by tonight
Quoting 1168. hurricanes2018:




we are going to have invest 93L SOON! by tonight


We already do.
wow invest 93L IS here right now


i find it invest 93L starting to look like a T.D ITS not going to be 20% more like 40%
1173. tkeith
TCHP

* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL932014 09/12/14 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 28 36 44 51 56 59 62 66 68
V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 28 36 44 51 56 59 62 66 68
V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 29 35 40 46 51 55 58 62
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 11 10 8 10 12 12 12 12 18 18 20 19 23
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 -2 -1 1 1 0 1 3 6 4
SHEAR DIR 23 13 359 353 353 351 350 336 331 336 354 32 32
SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 27.8 27.3 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.9
POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 144 144 143 136 129 127 126 126 128 130 136
ADJ. POT. INT. 147 148 148 148 147 137 128 125 123 121 122 123 128
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11
700-500 MB RH 67 64 59 60 60 59 57 58 57 59 58 60 56
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 38 41 46 41 42 31 14 -5 -24 -37 -54 -61 -77
200 MB DIV 10 -8 -21 -17 -30 0 9 -15 3 -5 7 3 -1
700-850 TADV 1 0 1 2 2 1 0 1 1 0 0 -1 1
LAND (KM) 842 983 1128 1274 1424 1740 1973 1779 1627 1520 1461 1425 1330
LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.7 11.9 12.3 12.6 13.5 14.3 15.0 15.6 16.3 17.0 17.6 18.1
LONG(DEG W) 24.5 26.0 27.5 29.0 30.5 33.6 36.5 39.4 42.2 44.7 47.0 49.1 51.2
STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 16 15 14 14 13 12 11 10 11
HEAT CONTENT 6 6 10 12 10 12 10 10 13 15 12 25 35

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=624)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
-------------------------------------------------- --------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 24. 29. 32. 34. 35.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 2. 1. 0. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 9. 10.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
-------------------------------------------------- --------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 16. 24. 31. 36. 39. 42. 46. 48.

** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932014 INVEST 09/12/14 12 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%)

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932014 INVEST 09/12/2014 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
Expected to become a hurricane in 5 days. I expect 30/30.
1175. LargoFl
Quoting 1167. jdukes:

New invest 93-L

maybe that is the one in the gulf in 10 days?
Link
BOC chances increasing.

2014 Storms




All

Active

Year




Atlantic


green ball93L.INVEST


green ball92L.INVEST


green ball06L.EDOUARD



East Pacific


green ball16E.SIXTEEN


green ball15E.ODILE



Central Pacific



West Pacific


green ball95W.INVEST


green ball15W.KALMAEGI



Indian Ocean



Southern Hemisphere



Southern Hemisphere 2015
The Bay of Campeche area will probably not develop due to the high shear levels (and no previous model support). Here is the only buoy in the area (in the Central Bay between Campico and Cancun). Winds are a gusting but pressures are rising:

Station 42055
NDBC
Location:
 22.203N 94W
Date: Fri, 12 Sep 2014 12:50:00 UTC
Winds: SSE (150°) at 13.6 kt gusting to 17.5 kt
Significant Wave Height: 4.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 6 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ENE (64°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.84 in and rising
Air Temperature: 78.8 F
Dew Point: 75.6 F
Water Temperature: 85.3 F





Pretty favorable where 92L is going, the HWRF and the CMC may be on to something.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
The Bay of Campeche area will probably not develop due to the high shear levels (and no previous model support). Here is the only buoy in the area (in the Central Bay between Campico and Cancun). Winds are a gusting but pressures are rising:

Station 42055
NDBC
Location:
 22.203N 94W
Date: Fri, 12 Sep 2014 12:50:00 UTC
Winds: SSE (150°) at 13.6 kt gusting to 17.5 kt
Significant Wave Height: 4.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 6 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ENE (64°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.84 in and rising
Air Temperature: 78.8 F
Dew Point: 75.6 F
Water Temperature: 85.3 F




We will see about that. If it can persist in convection, maybe it can develop an ULAC.
Quoting 1159. CumberlandPlateau:

So we are up to the E storm in the Atlantic and it's Sept 12th. That's running about average Folks. Say 4 more storms just year and we make it to the letter I. That's a good season.


We are well below average and we. Are not going to get 4 more name storm we will be lucky. If we do average. Is 12 nmae storms so we are still will be low average has far has storms go
1065: that is not funny at all. If that shear weren't there you would be talking about damage right now. Southern Florida is very lucky. This thing still has a shot in the gom


I SEE THE % GO UP VERY FAST ON INVEST 93L
Quoting 1178. weathermanwannabe:

The Bay of Campeche area will probably not develop due to the high shear levels (and no previous model support). Here is the only buoy in the area (in the Central Bay between Campico and Cancun). Winds are a gusting but pressures are rising:

Station 42055
NDBC
Location:
 22.203N 94W
Date: Fri, 12 Sep 2014 12:50:00 UTC
Winds: SSE (150°) at 13.6 kt gusting to 17.5 kt
Significant Wave Height: 4.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 6 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ENE (64°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.84 in and rising
Air Temperature: 78.8 F
Dew Point: 75.6 F
Water Temperature: 85.3 F






Tampico
1186. AztecCe
I guess this is our peak?
1187. jdukes
I think 93-L has a good chance to develop because there is hardly no wind shear:

And almost no dry air.
Although the center of Edouard is located on the southwestern side of this convective burst, the overall appearance of the storm is decently organized, and satellite intensity estimates from SAB and UW-CIMSS ADT have risen to T3.0/45kt. The NHC just entered 40kt into the ATCF.



Tropical Storm Odile is generating extremely cold cloudtops this morning and appears to be on a slow strengthening trend despite continued high wind shear. This shear is forecast to relax today, which should allow this to become a hurricane and eventually a Category 2 hurricane. Although statistical model guidance has trended less bullish with Odile, the GFS is at its most bullish yet, with the 6z run forecasting a 944mb hurricane in 42 hours.

Quoting hurricanes2018:


I SEE THE % GO UP VERY FAST ON INVEST 93L
To tell you the truth, I think this should deserve high code orange to low code red, and it already looks like Edouard.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Although the center of Edouard is located on the southwestern side of this convective burst, the overall appearance of the storm is decently organized, and satellite intensity estimates from SAB and UW-CIMSS ADT have risen to T3.0/45kt. The NHC just entered 40kt into the ATCF.



Tropical Storm Odile is generating extremely cold cloudtops this morning and appears to be on a slow strengthening trend despite continued high wind shear. This shear is forecast to relax today, which should allow this to become a hurricane and eventually a Category 2 hurricane. Although statistical model guidance has trended less bullish with Odile, the GFS is at its most bullish yet, with the 6z run forecasting a 944mb hurricane in 42 hours.

Yep, two strengthening systems.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
If the BOC mass can hold and go north, it could possibly develop.
1194. jdukes
Quoting 1183. hurricanes2018:



I SEE THE % GO UP VERY FAST ON INVEST 93L

I agree. Very favorable environment.

Existing wave in the BOC.
Quoting 1182. RGVtropicalWx13:

1065: that is not funny at all. If that shear weren't there you would be talking about damage right now. Southern Florida is very lucky. This thing still has a shot in the gom

I agree. Whatever though. I tend to avoid making jokes on something that could pose a threat to someone later on.
Quoting 1168. hurricanes2018:




we are going to have invest 93L SOON! by tonight


...and hopefully it won't die and go north
1198. MahFL
Quoting 1153. CumberlandPlateau:

Shear is crazy high in GOM.


No it's not.
1199. Patrap
1201. MahFL
Has potential....

1203. ncstorm
I got 5-6 named systems in the month of September..

Edouard, 92L, 93L, Yutucan, BOC and off the Carolina Coast..

93L is our last chance... but again wants to go north.
Quoting 1182. RGVtropicalWx13:

1065: that is not funny at all. If that shear weren't there you would be talking about damage right now. Southern Florida is very lucky. This thing still has a shot in the gom

His post was hilarious. Conditions are not, and should not, become favorable for significant intensification once 92L gets into the Gulf. At best, this has the potential to become a weak named storm as it slides westward. Lighten up.
I'm just so happy the tropics has woke up, someone had said that they put some medicine in the Atlantic, it really worked. Thanks
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Rapidly intensifying, I think STWO is imminent.
wow, the blob in the gulf looks fired up.....Texas could use some rain.
Quoting CaribBoy:
93L is our last chance... but again wants to go north.
Not according to the BAM models.
I think 30mph for 93L at the next ATCF.


Sad
Quoting 1204. CaribBoy:

93L is our last chance... but again wants to go north.


It should follow a similar path to Edouard.
Quoting CaribBoy:


Sad
Why are you blue.
Quoting jrweatherman:


It should follow a similar path to Edouard.
They want to be siblings, they go together everywhere. ;)
Quoting 1199. Patrap:



Wow that southern hook by 92L was just like what Katrina did.
Quoting 1206. HurricaneAndre:

I'm just so happy the tropics has woke up, someone had said that they put some medicine in the Atlantic, it really worked. Thanks

Climatology 101.
Quoting 1205. TropicalAnalystwx13:
<
His post was hilarious. Conditions are not, and should not, become favorable for significant intensification once 92L gets into the Gulf. At best, this has the potential to become a weak named storm as it slides westward. Lighten up.

Lighten up? It isn't funny to me imo. Either way I believe 92L has better conditions then you think it will. I don't it'll become hurricane but a ts nonetheless.
Quoting 1211. HurricaneAndre:

Not according to the BAM models.


Most of the models have it north, unfortunately. But CMC and GFS runs had it close to the N Antilles/Bahamas a couple days ago before dropping it.

We will see..
Quoting sporteguy03:

Climatology 101.
He said that, or your just saying that this is just climatology. LOL. :)
1222. Patrap
Quoting 1217. opal92nwf:


Wow that southern hook by 92L was just like what Katrina did.



Shooooosh,..

Don't Mention Katrina, I did, but I think I got away with it.







Quoting 1209. STORMW2014:



Sorry, gotta report you.. This is just nonsense

Why report someone for being on topic? It's his thoughts dude, this is why we have this blog so people can learn.
Quoting 1215. HurricaneAndre:

Why are you blue.




Bored with the SAL and the lack of weather
According to this map, the Gulf seems fine.
Quoting 1219. RGVtropicalWx13:


Lighten up? It isn't funny to me imo. Either way I believe 92L has better conditions then you think it will. I don't hurricane but a t-shirts nonetheless.

???what??

I agree though; I'm expecting anything from 92L. After thinking twice it was going to be nothing only to have it spring back leads me to expect a lot of possibilities still.
Quoting CaribBoy:




Bored with the SAL and the lack of weather
Well in your future you will see a Cat. 3 hurricane. LOL. ;) :)
Quoting 1222. Patrap:




Shooooosh,..

Don't Mention Katrina, I did, but I think I got away with it.

track only, track only....
1229. Patrap

Quoting 1226. opal92nwf:


???what??

I agree though; I'm expecting anything from 92L. After thinking twice it was going to be nothing only to have it spring back leads me to expect a lot of possibilities still.

Dude it was autocorrect, I already fixed it.
Hello what's this spinning NE of 92L?
Quoting 1058. ncstorm:

So here's my thinking of the model runs so far..

we bout to have us an old fashion showdown with east vs west with 92L

In the east department, you have UKMET, CMC, Navgem, in the west department you have Euro and GFS..

The Euro is also showing development off the Carolina Coast while the GFS and Navgem is showing another storm moving up from the Yutucan..

You got a tropical storm currently in the Central Atlantic with another potential one behind it..

Potential in the BOC as well..

and to think the season was dead and maybe we might see something in October says NO ONE EVER

and in all this madness mostly all the models are trying to drown the southeast..where is Chief Brody when you need him?






Maybe not NC, but Florida could use a little drowning, especially north FL and the gulf coast of FL.

The models seem to be trending wetter, and the GFS is looking even a lot wetter than this in Florida through the Carolinas in the long term.
Time to break out some crayons!
Quoting HurricaneAndre:
Hello what's this spinning NE of 92L?
Upper low, or something's brewing?

Vorticity still seems to be okay for 92L.
Quoting 1231. HurricaneAndre:

Hello what's this spinning NE of 92L?



Its an upper low that developed as a result of that shear maximum that dropped down over the Bahamas last night the same burst of shear that was responsible for ripping apart 92L from tropical development chances has carved out an upper low. That upper low should push west and help to add lift to the most airmass in the wake of 92L.
Quoting HurricaneAndre:
Hello what's this spinning NE of 92L?
Once this thing coms back in water DOOM!
It is so nice here in WPB now Lol 75 and off and on sun! :P it is like fall
1239. Patrap
1240. FBMinFL
Quoting 1234. HurricaneAndre:

Upper low, or something's brewing?



That's 92L. The surface feature is up near Lake O
1241. Patrap
Quoting 1237. HurricaneAndre:

Once this thing coms back in water DOOM!


Small Doom, with a lil "d"



1242. Patrap
Quoting 1233. CycloneOz:

Time to break out some crayons!


Finish yer Juice, then a nap first...

: P

About time we get 93L anyway here's the stats

Total tropical systems
INVEST (IN) 14
Tropical Depression (TD) 6
Tropical Storm (TS) 5
Hurricanes (HU) 3
Major Hurricanes (MH) 0

INVEST
90L 2
91L 2
92L 2
93L 2
94L 1
95L 1
96L 1
97L 1
98L 1
99L 1

TD #
TD 1
TD 2
TD 3
TD 4
TD 5

TD STATUS MAX INTENSITY
#2 (TWO)

STORM NAME (To current date)
ARTHUR
BERTHA
CRISTOBAL
DOLLY
EDOUARD

TS SPEED
40-45MPH 2 Dolly, *Edouard* (As of morning of 12 Sept)
50-55MPH
60-65MPH
65+MPH

HURRICANE CATs

CAT 1- 2 Bertha, Christobal
CAT 2- 1 Arthur
CAT 3-
CAT 4-
CAT 5-
1244. ncstorm
Quoting 1232. Jedkins01:



Maybe not NC, but Florida could use a little drowning, especially north FL and the gulf coast of FL.

The models seem to be trending wetter, and the GFS is looking even a lot wetter than this in Florida through the Carolinas in the long term.


Yeah, Scott posted about the ensembles..I hope not

Jed, Eastern NC will be looking at another Floyd event if we got at least a tropical storm considering all the rain we had..we dont need any more rain

GFS total precip up to 384 hours


00z CMC up to 240 hours..


6z NAM up to 84 hour


Quoting 1166. SSideBrac:
Hurricane Ivan - 10 years on - Cayman Islands.
Not totally weather oriented but displaying resilience

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J34HWg-NOcE&fe atur e=youtu.be


SSide
Thanks for posting, its a great video..had to watch it twice
Never knew the Governor was such a great dancer!
Hope all is well on the Brac- 10 years on
1248. ncstorm
We're in a coastal flood advisory now..

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
643 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

NCZ107-108-121900-
/O.NEW.KILM.CF.Y.0064.140912T1600Z-140912T1900Z/
INLAND NEW HANOVER-COASTAL NEW HANOVER-
643 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON.

* LOCATION...ALONG THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER FROM DOWNTOWN
WILMINGTON TO FORT FISHER.

* COASTAL FLOODING...THE WATER LEVEL ON THE CAPE FEAR RIVER WILL
BREAK THE 6 FOOT MLLW LEVEL BETWEEN 1215 AM AND 115 AM EDT.

* TIMING...THE WATER LEVEL ON THE CAPE FEAR RIVER AT THE DOWNTOWN
WILMINGTON GAGE WILL PEAK AROUND 6.00 FT MLLW AROUND 1245 AM
EARLY THIS MORNING.

* IMPACTS...FLOODING OF SEVERAL INCHES UP TO ONE HALF FOOT IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WATER STREET BORDERING THE CAPE FEAR
RIVER IN DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON. ROADWAYS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
USS NORTH CAROLINA BATTLESHIP COULD ALSO SEE SEVERAL INCHES OR
POSSIBLY UP TO ONE HALF FOOT OF WATER. SEVERAL INCHES OF WATER
ACROSS ROADWAYS NEAR FORT FISHER IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SOUTHPORT FERRY TERMINAL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. AND FINALLY...CANAL
DRIVE OF CAROLINA BEACH COULD ALSO OBSERVE SEVERAL INCHES TO
POSSIBLY ONE HALF FOOT OF WATER COVERING PORTIONS OF ITS
ROADWAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT ONSHORE WINDS AND TIDES WILL
COMBINE TO GENERATE SOME FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE.
1249. Patrap
Miami Radar

Man. 9 inches in 7 days? I dunno about any floods from that in my area because it's well drained, but I can see many other areas in dade under water.
maybe a yellow x for the GOM in the south of GOM!
MAYBE invest 94L soon to.
1253. Doss2k
Headed down to Kure Beach for the weekend. Rain, rain stay away!
1254. Patrap
Those Hot towers are impressive...






1255. Patrap
The Surface Low looks to be heading for a exit west between Naples and Ft. Meyers.
Looks like mid to the end of September will be active. Get yo popcorn ready folks!
1257. FBMinFL
Quoting 1255. Patrap:

The Surface Low looks to be heading for a exit west between Naples and Ft. Meyers.


Yep. Lots of eyes looking at the Keys as 92L .... but that sucker is over the Everglades.

Never turn your back on a Everglades Seed.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.

Quoting 1064. MahFL:



It's late summer snow, not a winter storm.
Summer snow, winter snow.   It is still the earliest snowfall in a while for these parts.  Still frozen precipitation.   
1261. Patrap


This is why its called the peak of the season baby!
92L

93L

TS Edouard