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African Wave 91L Worth Watching; Record Quiet Spell Ends in Western Pacific

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:11 PM GMT on September 08, 2014

A tropical wave (91L) that emerged from the coast of Africa on Sunday is headed west to west-northwest at about 15 mph. Satellite images show 91L has a moderate amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity, but these thunderstorms are poorly organized. The disturbance is embedded in a moist air mass, has moderately warm (SSTs) of 27.5°C (82°F) beneath it, and is experiencing light wind shear. These conditions favor development. The 8 am EDT Monday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would remain light to moderate ( 5 - 15 knots) for the next five days, favoring continued development. However, development will be slowed by the fact that the atmosphere at mid-levels of the atmosphere (between 500 - 700 mb) should grow steadily grow drier. Two of our three reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation predict development of 91L over the next five days. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system 2-day and 5-day odd of development odds of 30% and 60%, respectively. A trough of low pressure expected to push off the U.S. East Coast early next week should induce a more northwesterly track for 91L next week, and the disturbance does not appear to be a long-range threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands. It remains to be seen if 91L will be a long-range threat to Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, or the Canadian Maritime Provinces late next week.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of tropical wave 91L off the coast of Africa at approximately 8 am EDT Monday September 8, 2014. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Record quiet spell ends in Western Pacific
A remarkable month-long hiatus in tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific finally came to an end on Sunday, when Tropical Storm Fengshen formed a few hundred miles south of Japan. Prior to Fengshen, the last named storm to form in the Western Pacific was Tropical Storm Nakri, which formed on July 29 (according the Japan Meteorological Agency, the official agency responsible for typhoon warnings) or August 2 (according the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center.) Typhoon Genevieve, which crossed the Dateline into the Western Pacific on August 7, originated in the Eastern Pacific, so doesn't count as a named storm originating in the Western Pacific. According to the archive of Japan Meteorological Agency Western Pacific typhoons kept at Digital Typhoon, August 2014 marks the first August since records began in 1951 that a tropical storm did not form in the Western Pacific. During the period 1951 - 2013, an average of 5.6 named storms formed in the basin during August. The previous record low for August was two named storms, which occurred in both 1979 and 1980. The lack of activity this August in the Northwest Pacific was due, in part, to an unfavorable phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days. The MJO caused dry, sinking air to predominate in the Western Pacific during August. Thanks to a busy July, the Western Pacific has seen 14 named storms so far this year, which is only one behind average.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Fengshen south of Japan, taken at approximately 03 UTC Monday September 8, 2014. At the time, Fengshen had top sustained winds of 65 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 495. Pallis1:

You are looking at the scenario from a selfish point of view. The majority of humans living in the affected zone are dumb as a stump. The stuff you are talking about costs money. How can an otherwise smart newborn child afford to do this. Daddy's on crack, mommy's on pills, and flushing the pills that don't get you high down the toilet. Haven't you heard? Florida is one third, third world now. Time to shut off the population. Visitors only. No new residents.


It is why I left... I actually left about 30 years too late.... I think you are under-estimating that 1/3 is third world now part too. The person that asked seemed intelligent and with means, so I told them what they could do about it.
Quoting 497. sar2401:

My fiance is a home health nurse, and they train their clients to flush unused pills down the toilet. There's not much evidence that the amount of pills that flushed to anything to the water supply, given the dilution factor. There's a lot of evidence that hundreds die every year, primarily children, from overdoses and poisonings from getting into grandmas expired pill supply.


I have been to those calls before... Sure you have too.
Quoting 491. Dakster:



Born raised and lived in Florida for 40 years. It depends on where you live and what was done on the land where your well is. Some wells are perfect and others are contaminated. Dry Cleaners and Petroleum companies are the worst offenders...
True my friend. I can name a few other top offenders though. GOLF COURSES # 1. Pesticides, fertilizers, and changing the water flow. I am Tired of running.
GFS 00z 120hrs...And the Atl is silent; at least the western portion.

Quoting 496. Jedkins01:



You're right, I don't feel like digging up the the sounding archives and analyzing thickness and such as I'm doing homework, but it was only a shallow warm layer in the mid levels that kept it from being pure snow. We got about 0.25-0.30 of precip during the really cold period, that could have come out to 1-2 inches of snow. Although with ground temperatures being warmer in Florida, it probably would have been more like 0.25-0.5 inch snow event when you account for quick snow melt. We got sleet at my parents house and the high was only 38, later that night it dipped to a record low of 24, the coldest I've ever seen at the weather station at my parents house by far during the 12 years its been there, the previous coldest was 30. Some of the bridges on US-19 iced over that night, I learned the hard way, my care nearly lost control going over one of them.

That's what happened this past winter up here in Tallahassee, we were so close to good snow event, we had a high that stayed below freezing all day, snow falling to our northwest in the cold air advection, and even colder air was spilling in. Sadly, we never got rid of a shallow warm layer around 850 or 700 mb despite that it kept getting colder in the rest of the atmosphere. Because of that, we literally just had very cold air with freezing rain changing over to all sleet.

There's nothing quite as weird as listening to the cracking noise of palm fronds encased in ice in the cold wind, but that's what we had. We dipped down to 19 the next night with a windchill of 8 and only a high of 33 the next day despite full sun, and yet another nigh of 22. The fountain in the middle of FSU partly froze with huge icicles, it was some of the coldest weather in many years. It was bitter cold, and while it was fun for a short time because its unusual, I'm glad it doesn't last in Florida, it would be miserable if it was that way all the time. I'm so glad I Live in the subtropics.


You could write a book. One of the few wall of text posters on here that I can read through past the first sentence.
506. flsky
I lived facing the Intracoastal Waterway for a while. I was sitting on the balcony one day and saw a large swirl traveling across the river. I assumed it was the liquid the equivalent of a dust devil, except there was no visible waterspout. Fascinating to watch.
Quoting 485. Huracan94:


I've only seen one tornado so far, and it was when I was living in Louisiana as a kid. I believe it may have been a waterspout that came ashore since it was less than a mile from Lake Ponchartrain (I probably butchered that LOL) and was coming from that general direction. It would have been practically invisible if it weren't for the roof shingles and tree branches swirling around in it.
Honestly, I would love to become a storm spotter/chaser someday. It's been my dream ever since I've been 3 or 4 after watching Twister for the first time XD.
There were actually two freezes in south Florida in 2010 - one in second-week January and one in third-week December, even though they were parts of two different seasons. The 09-10 winter was persistently cold right through March whereas 10-11 just had that brutal cold spell in mid-December, which I believe set a low temperature record for Havana and was felt all the way to the Honduran coast.

Still, Florida has warmer winter temperatures than many places at the same latitude. Coastal China and northern Vietnam have much cooler winters relative to latitude, if not the cold events. I lived awhile in Guangzhou (Canton) which is actually south of the Tropic, at about the same latitude as Havana, but typically has miserably cold, rainy, and cloudy weather all through February and March. Shanghai, which is on the latitude of Jacksonville, feels more like Virginia Beach in the winter. Hanoi, at about 20 degrees north, has a long cool season, and even the central coast of Vietnam, at around 15 degrees north latitude, can get quite cool in the winter.

Quoting 485. Huracan94:


I've only seen one tornado so far, and it was when I was living in Louisiana as a kid. I believe it may have been a waterspout that came ashore since it was less than a mile from Lake Ponchartrain (I probably butchered that LOL) and was coming from that general direction. It would have been practically invisible if it weren't for the roof shingles and tree branches swirling around in it.
Honestly, I would love to become a storm spotter/chaser someday. It's been my dream ever since I've been 3 or 4 after watching Twister for the first time XD.
Pontchartrain*

Louisiana native. You're welcome.
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
C'mon let this be. I want to track a tropical storm making landfall.

In a little more than two days? And the NWS doesn't even have the yellow "x"? You can dream but I think the GFS is out to lunch on this one
Quoting 14507. wildman09:

GFS 00z 120hrs...And the Atl is silent; at least the western portion.


i do not see anything going on..
Quoting 502. Dakster:



I have been to those calls before... Sure you have too.
How do the drugs get into the water?

People take pills. Their bodies absorb some of the medication, but the rest of it passes through and is flushed down the toilet. The wastewater is treated before it is discharged into reservoirs, rivers or lakes. Then, some of the water is cleansed again at drinking water treatment plants and piped to consumers. But most treatments do not remove all drug residue.

And while researchers do not yet understand the exact risks from decades of persistent exposure to random combinations of low levels of pharmaceuticals, recent studies — which have gone virtually unnoticed by the general public — have found alarming effects on human cells and wildlife.

"We recognize it is a growing concern and we're taking it very seriously," said Benjamin H. Grumbles, assistant administrator for water at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
Quoting 505. Drakoen:



You could write a book. One of the few wall of text posters on here that I can read through past the first sentence.
I knew a guy from GameFAQs that was on my Facebook. I used to debate religion a lot (I stopped due to idiots) and this guy would unequivocally respond to every single one of my theology-related posts with a block of text even larger than Jed's! Chock full of big, hard-to-understand words, too! I think most people didn't read it. Even I sometimes didn't!

Jed's kinda like that guy except weather, not religion. And I actually read his posts!


maybe a tropical storm in the GOM
Sorry if this is already posted, but it's wild video of a water spout that turns into tornado on Croatian coast last week. I think the Hungarian tourist who is video taping doesn't have a clue as what to expect with a storm like this, so he keeps taping. Thankfully, I think he and his friends/family are fine, but man did they come close to disaster. It's a long video (7 min), but worth the watch.

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=801_1409392012
Quoting 509. sar2401:

In a little more than two days? And the NWS doesn't even have the yellow "x"? You can dream but I think the GFS is out to lunch on this one
Hey I once heard of a famous person who said, "I have a dream..." Dreams do come true.
Quoting Dakster:


I have been to those calls before... Sure you have too.
Me too. All you know is you have a three year old that's losing consciousness and bunch of empty pill bottles. One of the only times I didn't wait for rescue to show up. Just put the kid and grandma in the patrol car and hoped I'd get him to the ER before he died. Unfortunately, I didn't. I have no problem with some pills getting flushed down a toilet compared to that experience.
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Hey I once heard of a famous person who said, "I have a dream..." Dreams do come true.
LOL. I hope we get a nice, well behaved TS for you to track then. If it turns into something more, it's all your fault. :-)
Quoting 501. Dakster:



It is why I left... I actually left about 30 years too late.... I think you are under-estimating that 1/3 is third world now part too. The person that asked seemed intelligent and with means, so I told them what they could do about it.
I under estimated that % because I am an optimistic person. I will leave, only to come back with reinforcements.
Quoting 511. Pallis1:

How do the drugs get into the water?

People take pills. Their bodies absorb some of the medication, but the rest of it passes through and is flushed down the toilet.


From the CDC...

Keeping our water free from chemicals is one way to help ensure the health and safety of our water sources. Research has shown that pharmaceuticals, including prescription drugs, are present in our nation's water and may cause environmental harm. Although there is no current evidence that these pharmaceuticals in the environment are responsible for any negative health effects in humans, keeping our water clean is an important public health goal.


Again, I am much more concerned with mass fanaticism; be it Muslim Extremists, Atheists, Southern Baptists, tree huggers, etc...Than I am with whatever small amount of toxins there are in my water. Especially pharmaceuticals.
Quoting 517. sar2401:

LOL. I hope we get a nice, well behaved TS for you to track then. If it turns into something more, it's all your fault. :-)
I'll say the GFS had 91L as a sub-970 mb. hurricane 3 days ago, so the intensity was overdone, and now it seems like more struggles along the way.

Quoting Jedkins01:


You're right, I don't feel like digging up the the sounding archives and analyzing thickness and such as I'm doing homework, but it was only a shallow warm layer in the mid levels that kept it from being pure snow. We got about 0.25-0.30 of precip during the really cold period, that could have come out to 1-2 inches of snow. Although with ground temperatures being warmer in Florida, it probably would have been more like 0.25-0.5 inch snow event when you account for quick snow melt. We got sleet at my parents house and the high was only 38, later that night it dipped to a record low of 24, the coldest I've ever seen at the weather station at my parents house by far during the 12 years its been there, the previous coldest was 30. Some of the bridges on US-19 iced over that night, I learned the hard way, my care nearly lost control going over one of them.

That's what happened this past winter up here in Tallahassee, we were so close to good snow event, we had a high that stayed below freezing all day, snow falling to our northwest in the cold air advection, and even colder air was spilling in. Sadly, we never got rid of a shallow warm layer around 850 or 700 mb despite that it kept getting colder in the rest of the atmosphere. Because of that, we literally just had very cold air with freezing rain changing over to all sleet.

There's nothing quite as weird as listening to the cracking noise of palm fronds encased in ice in the cold wind, but that's what we had. We dipped down to 19 the next night with a windchill of 8 and only a high of 33 the next day despite full sun, and yet another nigh of 22. The fountain in the middle of FSU partly froze with huge icicles, it was some of the coldest weather in many years. It was bitter cold, and while it was fun for a short time because its unusual, I'm glad it doesn't last in Florida, it would be miserable if it was that way all the time. I'm so glad I Live in the subtropics.
Tallahassee is only about 100 air miles from Eufaula. In terms of latitude, Eufaula is only a little over one degree further north. That one degree was enough to make the difference with what you got and three inches of snow over a half inch of ice and temperatures that didn't make it above freezing for three days, with lows of 10, 12, and 15. We didn't have a low above freezing for five days. We have a fountain in downtown that was completely frozen over with icicles reaching down to the street. The picture was taken after it had gotten to above freezing and some of the ice started to melt. The city turned off the fountain after the first night when it was obvious we wouldn't have our usual one cold night and warm day because the pump was being damaged by the ice. Just one degree of latitude but what a difference.

Quoting 516. sar2401:

Me too. All you know is you have a three year old that's losing consciousness and bunch of empty pill bottles. One of the only times I didn't wait for rescue to show up. Just put the kid and grandma in the patrol car and hoped I'd get him to the ER before he died. Unfortunately, I didn't. I have no problem with some pills getting flushed down a toilet compared to that experience.
I get that concept SAR, but Grandma would not have let her Grandchild near the drug counter if she was not so messed up on drugs. Old people don't need to be sedated. They need to live in a society that takes care of the elderly. My Granny is probably 90 and she can still shoot the skin off a chestnut. Sure, she complains about her arthritis, broke her hip on the porch, multiple other accidents resulting in severe bleeding, but she still wants to go out there and shoot the back yard neighbor. What would you do at that age, veg on the newest pill? At least she has a hobby that makes her want to get out in the yard and possibly get hurt. I do not worry about her getting robbed because they will end up like double barrel Swiss cheese.
GFS LIKES MAKING AL THE HURRICANES AND TROPICAL STORMS THAT ARE ALL FAKE SO FAR
Quoting 520. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I'll say the GFS had 91L as a sub-970 mb. hurricane 3 days ago, so the intensity was overdone, and now it seems like more struggles along the way.


I THINK GFS making up more storms and we will have notting yet
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
I'll say the GFS had 91L as a sub-970 mb. hurricane 3 days ago, so the intensity was overdone, and now it seems like more struggles along the way.

Yes and, unfortunately, 91L is heading into an area of low RH and marginal SST's. I was hoping 91L would have started to organize right after it hit water, since conditions were good. Instead, it looks worse with each passing hour. If this pattern doesn't change, 91L is headed for 0% like its siblings this season. :-(

Quoting 520. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I'll say the GFS had 91L as a sub-970 mb. hurricane 3 days ago, so the intensity was overdone, and now it seems like more struggles along the way.



It still does. We'll see what the 0z ECMWF says, but I wouldn't expect more than a TS out of 91L until it gets north of 20N. The subtropics is where the GFS and 12z ECMWF are intensifying 91L. But I'd say that the large nature of the system will likely keep most things gradual with this invest and so we probably won't see Edouard out of this invest for another day or so. It's also worth mentioning that the models have latched onto yet another wave behind 91L that could develop into a weak tropical cyclone warranting that 91L doesn't have any inhibiting factors on development.

I'm not getting my hopes up that 91L will become anything major, but It'd sure be appreciated considering how long it has been and how many disappointments that have plagued the blog in that time... (2 years now). Anytime now Atlantic...
Quoting Pallis1:
I get that concept SAR, but Grandma would not have let her Grandchild near the drug counter if she was not so messed up on drugs. Old people don't need to be sedated. They need to live in a society that takes care of the elderly. My Granny is probably 90 and she can still shoot the skin off a chestnut. Sure, she complains about her arthritis, broke her hip on the porch, multiple other accidents resulting in severe bleeding, but she still wants to go out there and shoot the back yard neighbor. What would you do at that age, veg on the newest pill? At least she has a hobby that makes her want to get out in the yard and possibly get hurt. I do not worry about her getting robbed because they will end up like double barrel Swiss cheese.
You are making a very broad generalization with no foundation in fact. In this case, the child died because he overdosed on digitalis, something his grandmother needed to stay alive. There are some grandmothers that are overly sedated but not the majority. Most elderly people, like your grandmother, actually resist taking pills. A doctor prescribes them, they never take them, and the bottle gets parked in a medicine cabinet where a grandchild gets into them. That's why home health nurses inventory the drugs a patient is on and dump the ones they no longer take or are expired. Part of their educational program is how to hide medications from family members, since some will steal sedatives and narcotics, and dumping ones they no longer use. There's no other sure way to dispose of drugs so no one can get into them. The water supply issue to me is an acceptable possible risk compared to the very real risk that kills children every day.
528. JRRP
Quoting 515. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Hey I once heard of a famous person who said, "I have a dream..." Dreams do come true.

So you're saying my dream of a classic long-tracked major hurricane this year might actually come true?
Oh wait. It's 2014.


Quoting 525. sar2401:

Yes and, unfortunately, 91L is heading into an area of low RH and marginal SST's. I was hoping 91L would have started to organize right after it hit water, since conditions were good. Instead, it looks worse with each passing hour. If this pattern doesn't change, 91L is headed for 0% like its siblings this season. :-(



I think I might cry.
I just realized it's 12:30 AM. Well. Isn't that something.
Goodnight to anyone of you night shift bloggers that are even awake at this point.

I leave you with the last strand of sanity I'm holding onto at this point. The thought that we ever will see one of these in the MDR again.

Oh and here's the 2AM TWO.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 090500
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
the Cape Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for gradual development of this disturbance during the
next several days while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
Quoting SunnyDaysFla:



I was reading last night about the geology/hydrology of Grand Cayman, The foundation of the island is dolomite, and it is sort of like swiss cheese. Lots of water filled caverns. Perhaps one of them partially collapsed, but the surface layers were strong enough not to cause a sinkhole,
Yes, it seems SP felt some kind of local movement too small to be picked up on a seismograph. Things do move around a bit and settle after an earthquake. One of those small local movements can feel like a much bigger deal if you happen to be on top of it.
Quoting TylerStanfield:

So you're saying my dream of a classic long-tracked major hurricane this year might actually come true?
Oh wait. It's 2014.



I think I might cry.
The NWS is sticking to the 30/60 forecast, so I imagine they are relying on the models that show 91L developing. If it heads more NW, it may have a chance. Moving straight wast is not going to work out well.

Looks like something may be brewing due south of Hawaii.

Quoting 526. TylerStanfield:


It still does. We'll see what the 0z ECMWF says, but I wouldn't expect more than a TS out of 91L until it gets north of 20N. The subtropics is where the GFS and 12z ECMWF are intensifying 91L. But I'd say that the large nature of the system will likely keep most things gradual with this invest and so we probably won't see Edouard out of this invest for another day or so. It's also worth mentioning that the models have latched onto yet another wave behind 91L that could develop into a weak tropical cyclone warranting that 91L doesn't have any inhibiting factors on development.

I'm not getting my hopes up that 91L will become anything major, but It'd sure be appreciated considering how long it has been and how many disappointments that have plagued the blog in that time... (2 years now). Anytime now Atlantic...

If 91L struggles for a few more days, the odds of it getting much closer to the US in the long-range greatly increase. The weakness will be in the central Atlantic, not the US.
Does anyone here know the secret to getting image loops to show up in a post?

Quoting 535. BayFog:

Does anyone here know the secret to getting image loops to show up in a post?
Loops are .gifs, so just go img src = link.
Quoting 531. sar2401:

Yes, it seems SP felt some kind of local movement too small to be picked up on a seismograph. Things do move around a bit and settle after an earthquake. One of those small local movements can feel like a much bigger deal if you happen to be on top of it.

He mentioned something about the building being steel framed and on "solid" rock. I think maybe it might be worth having someone check the foundations of that building to avoid a nasty surprise.
So is there no chance this upper level low over the Bahamas can consolidate and work its way down to the surface? It seems to be tightening up, and there is plenty of moisture.
Quoting 538. BayFog:



Nope. Doesn't take. Baffling.
Quoting 516. sar2401:

Me too. All you know is you have a three year old that's losing consciousness and bunch of empty pill bottles. One of the only times I didn't wait for rescue to show up. Just put the kid and grandma in the patrol car and hoped I'd get him to the ER before he died. Unfortunately, I didn't. I have no problem with some pills getting flushed down a toilet compared to that experience.


Lots of evidence that the best way to survive a trauma event is to get to the ER as soon as possible. Sorry it didn't work out in your case...

I have some bad ones too, but those aren't blog posting suitable.
The GFS and ECMWF are unanimous in suggesting that the tropical wave over the Caribbean (see the red south of Cuba) will become an area of low pressure behind what is likely to be Odile. The pattern favors this storm threatening Mexico as well.



Still a ways away, though. We'll see what becomes of it.
Quoting 518. Pallis1:

I under estimated that % because I am an optimistic person. I will leave, only to come back with reinforcements.


Awesome... and no need for reinforcements. We are on the same side - you are just more concerned with small amounts (in parts per Billion) of meds in the water supply, while I am more concerned with higher concentrations of known carcinogens.

The solution is treating the water better - if your water tests out bad. Besides Florida has a much more pressing danger to the water supply anyways. Salt water intrusion. Before the pill residue gets you, the salt water will. What will happen to Florida when all the Fresh water is gone? You will need huge desalinization plants.

Somehow the old pills need to get disposed of. The need to not be hanging around the house for some other person to get ahold of. Flush em or throw em out and they end up in the same place...
Quoting 540. BayFog:


Nope. Doesn't take. Baffling.

The thing you're trying to post is NOT an image... it's a regular html link to a webpage containing an embedded flash video loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/flash-wv.ht ml . Can't post that as an image. Unfortunately, I've never tried to post a flash video loop, so I cannot tell you what the correct procedure is.
I believe the suggestion is to return them to the pharmacy for disposal. Not sure, but I think incineration is the referred method.
I can't take my posts seriously anymore with a smiling Shugo. Like it literally makes everything I say completely lighthearted in expression.
Quoting SunnyDaysFla:
I believe the suggestion is to return them to the pharmacy for disposal. Not sure, but I think incineration is the referred method.
Pharmacies will take pills and destroy them. They put them in a bag. When they have enough of them, they pour water in them, and the contents turn to some sort of jellied material that breaks down the pills and turns them into mush. It's effective, but that gets thrown in the trash, which gets into landfills, and still contaminates ground water. Many people don't have cars and get their pills by mail, so flushing the only alternative. It's still a reasonable solution when studies have found the amounts detected in water are exceedingly small. Most of the problems arise with people how worry about very small probability harm but still drive a car, one of the most risky activities we engage in on a daily basis. That and taking a shower are the two of the most dangerous things anyone can do.
Quoting KoritheMan:
I can't take my posts seriously anymore with a smiling Shugo. Like it literally makes everything I say completely lighthearted in expression.
Since when have we taken your posts seriously, Kori? :-0
Quoting EstherD:

The thing you're trying to post is NOT an image... it's a regular html link to a webpage containing an embedded flash video loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/flash-wv.ht ml . Can't post that as an image. Unfortunately, I've never tried to post a flash video loop, so I cannot tell you what the correct procedure is.
I have a program that takes flash videos into animated GIF's. I'll have to dig around and find out the name. It's donationware. I've never found a way to embed a flash video directly since the html code that should allow you to do seems to be disabled at this site.
Quoting PensacolaBuoy:
So is there no chance this upper level low over the Bahamas can consolidate and work its way down to the surface? It seems to be tightening up, and there is plenty of moisture.
There's always chance. It's just a low order of probability. No forcing mechanism and pressure gradients are flat across the whole basin. Assuming it's still around by the weekend, the strong cold front may be able to provide the forcing mechanism, but that's 6-8 days away and we'll need to see just how strong the cold front is an if it actually lakes it to the coast.
Quoting KoritheMan:

Loops are .gifs, so just go img src = link.
Only Some loops are animated GIFS. It the description doesn't say they are animated GIF's, you'll have to convert the loop to an animated GIF to post it here.
Quoting 551. sar2401:

Only Some loops are animated GIFS. It the description doesn't say they are animated GIF's, you'll have to convert the loop to an animated GIF to post it here.

And how does one do that?
GN, boys and girls. My sedated eyelids are getting heavy. See you later today when, if we're lucky, 91L will look more organized than it does now.
Quoting 551. sar2401:

Only Some loops are animated GIFS. It the description doesn't say they are animated GIF's, you'll have to convert the loop to an animated GIF to post it here.


Oh yeah. My bad.
Quoting BayFog:

And how does one do that?
Search Google for lop to gif converter. There are several out there. I will dig up the one I use later today.
Quoting 552. BayFog:


And how does one do that?


Try this, maybe.

Link
Quoting 548. sar2401:

Since when have we taken your posts seriously, Kori? :-0


That's it! I'm leaving!
00z ECMWF continues to show 91L becoming a hurricane in the longer range.
559. DrTau

91L certainly looks a lot healthier than it did last time I saw it.
Also, does anyone else feel like we should watch the rising blob hundreds of miles southeast of Bermuda? Sea surface temperatures there are 30C, and the area is not as dry as it was yesterday.
Quoting 453. scott39:

b yea, apparently Posiden is having a problem, so I figured that I would him out
Now this makes sense.... lol ...

Quoting 461. Drakoen:

Cape Verde Seagulls


Best-looking birds in the basin....

good morning everyone how is invest 91L doing this morning




watching right now!
Highs in the 80s Saturday with Super-Mega cold front. Autumn has arrived.



Fantasy range GFS jumps straight to Halloween weather.



That burnt dust smell in less than 2 weeks as the heater gets fired up for the first time in 5 months...
Quoting 469. GatorWX:

Hell, I've only seen hail once. Must have been '90-ish. I was pretty young. It was pea size, maybe a little bigger. Nothing spectacular, but for a 4 or 5 year old, it left an impression on my memory.


I have seen hail a very little amount of time, compared to how much they call for it here.
ed your post are hardly worthy bunch of mismash
Well folks the Euro does indeed try to develop this feature in the Bahamas and send it into FL in 72hrs albeit weak if it does form but interesting none the less.



Basically expect a heck of a lot of rain across C & S FL this weekend as this system moves in.

The SPC has put out a 45% risk area for parts of Southern Michigan, NW Ohio, Northern Indiana, and NE Illinois. Damaging winds will be the main threat with a strong winds just above the ground and the column as whole. Instability will be meager at best with probably 500-1000j/kg at best in S MI, with mid-level lapse rates being pretty poor. Pwats will be very high, a return event of 1-30 years per NWS Grand Rapids, in part to the remnants of Norbert. A lesser tornado threat exists with the strong directional shear, and if instability was progged to be higher then there would be a more formidable tornado threat. Very heavy rain will be possible with the high moisture content across all of the Great Lakes. With Detroit being a hot spot lately for severe weather, it could be interesting tomorrow.

SPC D2 Outlook:


Hodo for Detroit area @ 00z Thu:


Ed please take a moment to calm down and work on not getting pissed off by meaningless bs. Thanks.
congrads ed your are the first ever on the ignore list gt is a cool
06Z NAM continues to stall the low over the Bahamas. The Low gets close to Florida and then can't decide where it wants to go.

Yesterday's 18z NAM had the low slightly closer to Florida at 84 hours.
Today's 06z NAM (12 hours in the future) has the low slightly further away from Florida.


I'm also interested in the wave that goes into Mexico.

Is it really worth arguing about LOL
Quoting 573. islander101010:

congrads ed your are the first ever on the ignore list gt is a cool


Just curious, if he is on your ignore list, why was he able to quote you?
Quoting 574. Sfloridacat5:

06Z NAM continues to stall the low over the Bahamas. The Low gets close to Florida and then can't decide where it wants to go.
I'm also interested in the wave that goes into Mexico.




You might want to take a look at the Euro. It's interesting this morning. I know its a weak system on the Euro coming into FL but the fact that the Euro is sniffing this out is impressive.

Is 91L going slightly further west? It looks like the 5 day graph outlook from NHC slips a little further west every day.

If Gro will allow, I think that BLOB in the Bh is spinning somewhat.
One thing I am noticing with the Euro as it seems to be focusing lots of rain across the Gulf, FL, and the Bahamas thru day 10. This is the first time this summer that the whole state of FL is experiencing a classic rainy season pattern..

This area in the Bahamas looks like it deserves a little more love. NHC could highlight this today if the Euro continues to sniff this system out.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
the Cape Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for gradual development of this disturbance during the
next several days while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
UP TO 70%
Here's the GFS. Samething lots of rain gets pulled up into FL thru the next 2 weeks.

I do not see why the NHC is not going with 10% yet!
NAM

CMC 850mb

GFS 850mb

ECWMF
Quoting 588. SFLWeatherman:

I do not see why the NHC is not going with 10% yet!
NAM

CMC 850mb

GFS 850mb

ECWMF



Looks like this might be slipping thru the cracks. I figured you would like those Euro images this morning.
MAYBE A NEW INVEST IN A FEW DAYS
Quoting Abacosurf:
So getting in an argument about him arguing is better than idiotic?? Am I missing something here?? How old are you?


Classic case of

Old enough to know better but to young to care?
Quoting 584. StormTrackerScott:

This area in the Bahamas looks like it deserves a little more love. NHC could highlight this today if the Euro continues to sniff this system out.


WE NEED TO WATCH IT
22 blogs later Ed is still griping about GT putting him on ignore..that has to be a new WU record..

Good Grief!




Euro op and means 500 mb, except for possible Bahama system (and something unexpected from the Caribbean) nothing in the Atlantic reaches North America next 10 days. GEFS 500 mb pattern means look favorable for a Caribbean to Florida storm days 10-15, but only if something forms in the Caribbean

Models even have Bermuda safe for now, although a few individual GEFS and Euro ensemble members get fairly close.





On the pattern looking favorable for a 10-15 day Caribbean to Florida threat, nothing apparent, but MJO may get more favorable.

Quoting 595. EdMahmoud:

Euro op and means 500 mb, except for possible Bahama system (and something unexpected from the Caribbean) nothing in the Atlantic reaches North America next 10 days. GEFS 500 mb pattern means look favorable for a Caribbean to Florida storm days 10-15, but only if something forms in the Caribbean

Models even have Bermuda safe for now, although a few individual GEFS and Euro ensemble members get fairly close.





On the pattern looking favorable for a 10-15 day Caribbean to Florida threat, nothing apparent, but MJO may get more favorable.


its look like a fish storm
Quoting 587. EdMahmoud:



Better than idiotic. Long story, met student putting me on ignore because I challenged him posting a 384 hour GFS, and him arguing climatology means it would verify. He even offered to bet me on it. A day from peak of the season, climatology, I noted unfavorable Euro/ensemble MJO forecast. But September 10th as peak trumps all, means 384 hour GFS Gulf storm on 8th and 9th will verify. Except it didn't this time.

Anyway, bad met student has fanboys. That is fine.

Old enough to know better, but unable to resist noting wishcasting from what could someday be a degreed met.

When I wishcash, I note it *and* my amateur status.
So you have been harbouring this argument/resentment for 360 hours and finally the last day you are giving it to him??

Funny thing is in a few days we may have a storm in the gulf. Now my sherlock in me wants to look back at the exact date of GT's claim. He may still have a shot...lol

Lighten up man. It's a blog about weather.


Good Morning. Here is today's Aussie Met Enso update...............Regardless of the ultimate outcome, we are already in the peak of the Atlantic season and headed towards an average or below average year irrespective of the particular Enso cycle:


El Niño remains possible in 2014

Issued on Tuesday 9 September 2014 | 

Despite some warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean over the past month, ENSO remains neutral. However, models continue to suggest an El Niño remains possible in 2014, and hence the Bureau’s ENSO Tracker remains at WATCH status, indicating at least double the normal risk of an El Niño developing by the end of the year.

Although tropical Pacific Ocean surface temperatures are within neutral range, an area of the sub-surface is warmer than average. A late season El Niño remains possible if these warmer waters rise to the surface and then affect atmospheric circulation, or if another sustained westerly wind burst develops in the western Pacific.

The majority of international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate central tropical Pacific surface temperatures will remain warmer than average, and may exceed El Niño thresholds by the end of the year. These model outlooks and current observations mean the Bureau’s ENSO Tracker remains at WATCH status, indicating at least a 50% chance (double the normal likelihood) of an El Niño forming in 2014.

And Africa and the wave; note the continued lack of a viable ITCZ this year and vigorous "wave train". It has never materialized this year.

In terms of the ITCZ issue, the issue of unfavorable dry stable air in the central Atlantic is only half of the picture in terms of the CV season (or relative lack thereof).  The other half of the equation is on the African Continent.  There has been plenty of rain in the Sahel in recent weeks but a "steady" stream of vigorous waves have not been forming over land and moving offshore this season.
 20140909.1130.msg3.vis.x.sahara_dust.x.jpg image
Quoting 509. sar2401:

In a little more than two days? And the NWS doesn't even have the yellow "x"? You can dream but I think the GFS is out to lunch on this one


Not out to lunch, the GFS, NAM, and ECMWF are all showing this now, just a bit different solutions. The Euro is actually the most aggressive in developing this and pushing it across Florida.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


You might want to take a look at the Euro. It's interesting this morning. I know its a weak system on the Euro coming into FL but the fact that the Euro is sniffing this out is impressive.



I noticed that. That is definitely something to consider because the Euro tends to ignore most of the weaker systems.

Yesterday I was posting about the ULL over the Bahamas most of the day. Yesterday the circulation associated with the ULL tightened up and relocated to the south (just north of Cuba).
The circulation center had been much broader and further north.
The models picked up on that and they shifted to the south on the next run.

It's worth watching even if it just brings more rain to areas of Florida, especially after all the rain the last system brought to parts of Northern and Central Fl.
Welp, gulp, sorry El Nino folks all the regions are falling once again, almost to 0.0C. Yes i know, official numbers are 0.4C but the trend is down. El Nino waits.



1.2 region below 0.5C for first time in forever.


Bahamas area has a Pouch number, BTW. And has some CIMSS analyzed 850 mb vorticity. Might be worth at least a low risk. Has some support from Canadian, and even a hint of support from GFS and Euro.




Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 1h
The PATTERN says to look out near coast. Sure 91L is going to develop but what is over Bahamas a heck of alot closer

Gro, JB is playing catchup with you..
Quoting 609. StormWx:

Welp, gulp, sorry El Nino folks all the regions are falling once again, almost to 0.0C. Yes i know, official numbers are 0.4C but the trend is down. El Nino waits.



1.2 region below 0.5C for first time in forever.






I want a classic wet and cool Texas Nino Winter. I have a theory about rain in the Mexican highlands to our Southwest, cap strength, and Spring FUN-derstorms, and a dry, cold Winter is a bad thing, a wet, cool Winter, not so much. Plus we need the rain.
Quoting Articuno:


I have seen hail a very little amount of time, compared to how much they call for it here.


For entertainment purposes only

The CMC takes the Bahamas' low and blows it up off the eastcoast. It did the same thing with the last system that affected Florida.

Quoting EdMahmoud:


Putting me on ignore and putting me on ignore for being a weenie wishcaster who thinks he'll grow up to be a met, not the same thing. I know, some people prefer being told the next Camille is 2 weeks away and will defend that person. That is understandable.
I don't "wish cast" anything other than ANY form of td, TS, H, being steered away from Houston. I've got 3 houses to board up, get ready and that's a ton of BS to go through. Try it once---volunteer to help a few people get their houses ready and experience the fun. I'd bet you'd view any type of tropical weather quite differently there after.
Quoting 609. StormWx:

Welp, gulp, sorry El Nino folks all the regions are falling once again, almost to 0.0C. Yes i know, official numbers are 0.4C but the trend is down. El Nino waits.


has far has I care them maps are false if the am going to go by what the CPC says has they have the official numbers not the false up # you like posting
My one contribution for this morning:

Quoting 579. Thunderfan:



Just curious, if he is on your ignore list, why was he able to quote you?


The ignore list only removes original comments from your own list. So, say you ignore me. You won't see what I post, however, you will see me if someone else quotes me. Also, I can still quote you, since you're not on my ignore list. Understand?
Hey, no more pointing out GT Caleb miserably blew a forecast by putting all his faith in a 384 hour GFS and climatology.

Obviously, he has fans who like to be promised a TC right around the corner, and you have the right to have that hope.


And I'm no gloom caster, I'd give Bahamas blob a 20% 2 day, it has some model support and 850 mb vorticity is increasing. And did I mention 500 mb pattern from Caribbean to Florida after 10 days and improving MJO phase?
Quoting 617. HouGalv08:

I don't "wish cast" anything other than ANY form of td, TS, H, being steered away from Houston. I've got 3 houses to board up, get ready and that's a ton of BS to go through. Try it once---volunteer to help a few people get their houses ready and experience the fun. I'd bet you'd view any type of tropical weather quite differently there after.

2009 was the year without a Summer place in Jamaica Beach.

And I want at least 20 years from the new place.
I opened a downwind window to let some of the testosterone out.

: P
Blob alert for the Bahamas? And X 90 L sneaking up.
bahamas system has been designated a pouch invest soon
Quoting Tazmanian:
Quoting 609. StormWx:

Welp, gulp, sorry El Nino folks all the regions are falling once again, almost to 0.0C. Yes i know, official numbers are 0.4C but the trend is down. El Nino waits.


has far has I care them maps are false if the am going to go by what the CPC says has they have the official numbers not the false up # you like posting


Yes, follow the CPC, but the trend is downward and we do not have an El Nino yet. Basically what i was getting at :o)
Quoting 610. EdMahmoud:

Bahamas area has a Pouch number, BTW. And has some CIMSS analyzed 850 mb vorticity. Might be worth at least a low risk. Has some support from Canadian, and even a hint of support from GFS and Euro.






Lower Convergence creeping northward, upper level diffluence was already there. There's no dry air to stop this one, if Ma Nature says "go."

The door is open ...

Here is the current vort signature on the ULL near Cuba/Bahamas from upper level to the surface per CIMMS.  It is not as aligned as it was yesterday. The main upper level ULL is over Cuba and the surface vort is over water in the Southern Bahama (with no depth into the upper levels):
upper level

mid-level

surface



Quoting 622. Patrap:

I opened a downwind window to let some of the testosterone out.

: P


You worked in the Gulf?

I was a service hand on a platform rig where at edge of Miss Canyon and Viosca Knoll, ADTI was contract driller, rig crew was cheesed, previous hitch, Hurricane Danny, they were at Shell heliport in Venice, company man would not let 2 hands fly in with car keys to move cars to higher ground, all cars were ruined.

I remember the MCS that became Danny, I was home in LFT when that passed, some serious and frequent cloud to ground lightning.

Oh, 10 hour boat ride, ADTI made service hands ride the boat. Cheap bastards.
pouch 33 headed for the gulf gfs
Quoting Patrap:
I opened a downwind window to let some of the testosterone out.

: P
Oh, you do come up with some good knee slappers. LOL
Interesting reading the model support for P33L (Bahamas ULL)and most of the models take the system into Florida or Florida Straights and into the GOM.
But at this time they don't develop it. It stays weak.
Nice moist environment at the moment in the Bahamas region however and low shear.................
Ed you seem generally like a smart guy, like your many insights. GT is well liked by most here and is not in the wishcasting usual suspect pool. So maybe he did overstate a long range model; so what? Let it go, life's just too short to be so upset over such a mundane thing. He'll learn, he's clearly a smart young man. GT can be little hotheaded sometimes too, not saying he's perfect; who is? Seems like your catastrophizing a very minor dispute. We've all been wrong greatly in our lives before, probably in much bigger ways than defending a 384 hour out model. GT is very young, give him a break.
635. 882MB
Good morning everyone, I have been noticing the last couple of GFS runs getting a little interesting, especially the 06z run with the wave behind 91L about to emerge Africa. In my opinion, I think this wave stands a better chance due to The last waves, clearing out a more stable environment and also, eating out the dry air. In terms of track, it takes a much more southern route, it tries to go north, but a building ridge behind 91L forces it back west, the 06z run of the GFS shows this very well, with this system in the northern leeward islands, but this is a week away a lot can and will change, but I will definitely keep an eye on this wave. I'm also becoming a little more interesting, with the trough in the Bahamas, has a lot of deep convection, concentrating in one spot, where I will think this ULL will be dropping down to the surface, I do think this will be 92L in the next 2 days. Any thoughts?
Quoting 630. islander101010:

pouch 33 headed for the gulf gfs
All the Gulf Coast states are under mandatory evacuation.
Quoting 630. islander101010:

pouch 33 headed for the gulf gfs
All the Gulf Coast states are under mandatory evacuation.
Looks like the ULL is centered over central Cuba and our new pouch is just to it's ENE in the Turks and Caicos. Is that the case??
hey Edmahmoud. You post some good stuff on here, I hear the ignore user button being clicked due to this bickering. Let it go and stick with posting good stuff.
Assuming that the Bahamas area continues to generate persistent convection over the next 72 hours, it will be interesting to see how the models handle it and whether it just ends up as a potential rain event for Florida or something else. The slow movement and "drift" makes it a tough proposition to forecast until something more substantial develops in the longer term.  
641. 882MB
Quoting 635. 882MB:

Good morning everyone, I have been noticing the last couple of GFS runs getting a little interesting, especially the 06z run with the wave behind 91L about to emerge Africa. In my opinion, I think this wave stands a better chance due to The last waves, clearing out a more stable environment and also, eating out the dry air. In terms of track, it takes a much more southern route, it tries to go north, but a building ridge behind 91L forces it back west, the 06z run of the GFS shows this very well, with this system in the northern leeward islands, but this is a week away a lot can and will change, but I will definitely keep an eye on this wave. I'm also becoming a little more interesting, with the trough in the Bahamas, has a lot of deep convection, concentrating in one spot, where I will think this ULL will be dropping down to the surface, I do think this will be 92L in the next 2 days. Any thoughts?

Forgot to mention the CMC also develops a system behind 91L and completely dissipates 91L, interesting but we all know the CMC, lol.
Quoting 623. unknowncomic:

Blob alert for the Bahamas? And X 90 L sneaking up.
Floridians are having a blob party.


wow look at 91L
Local Wilmington, NC NWS Discussion. Of note is the expectation that coldest air will stay north and west of forecast area.

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
756 am EDT Tuesday Sep 9 2014

Synopsis...
a lingering front along the coast will finally push well south and
east of the area tonight. Drier air will slowly arrive today...with
dry and warm conditions Wednesday and Thursday. A cold front will
arrive late week...drifting south early next week.

&&

Near term /through tonight/...
as of 600 am Tuesday...a cold front has pushed just offshore near
daybreak...but is expected to remain in close proximity to the coast
through the day. The proximity of the front necessitates a very
small mention of a shower today...but no significant precipitation
is expected across the forecast area. A series of shortwaves will
move up along the coast today and as the last in the series moves to
our northeast...the front should finally get kicked to our south and
east tonight.

The corridor of deepest moisture and heaviest rain has shifted off
the coast and the National Weather Service has cancelled the Flood
Watch. Water vapor imagery indicates the really dry air across the
upstate of South Carolina and western North Carolina this morning...
struggling to push east. The column will begin to significantly
dry...first inland where a deepening west to northwest flow will
take hold and then along the coast. We will see precipitable water
values drop from near 2 inches this morning to less than an inch and
a half tonight with the middle levels experiencing the biggest punch of
dry air. This should finally allow more late Summer sunshine to very
slowly develop. However...it will take a good part of the day as low
level moisture will remain trapped underneath a subsidence inversion
this morning. Widespread low stratus is expected to give way to
partial sunshine this afternoon from southwest to northeast with
thick clouds likely lingering along the coast through much of the
afternoon.

Lingering clouds will have an impact on high temperatures today. Where some
sunshine is able to develop longest...we expect highs to reach the
middle 80s. Currently...this seems most probable across the Pee Dee
region. Otherwise...highs should only reach the lower 80s with
perhaps only 80 for a good portion of southeast North Carolina. The
trend toward less cloud cover will accelerate along the coast
tonight. Low level moisture will resist being removed...but the
trend will be for dewpoints to gradually lower. Will forecast lows
in the middle and upper 60s with lower 70s holding on at the beaches.

&&

Short term /Wednesday through Wednesday night/...
as of 300 am Tuesday...zonal middle level flow and a dissipating
surface high on Wednesday will bring a dry day with near seasonable
temperatures. On Thursday the approach of a cold front and a slight
strengthening of the west Atlantic high will boost the afternoon
warmth as well slightly moisten the low levels of the atmosphere.
Most places away from the immediate coastline should warm into the
low 90s. The more noticeable difference between the two days will be
the afternoon apparent temperatures.On Wednesday most places will
top out around 90 degrees but as the dewpoints rise Thursday the
heat indices will be in the upper 90s. Both days this effect will be
considerably tapered along the coast. Models trending a bit faster
with moisture return ahead of next cold front especially the GFS. Will put
low probability of precipitation in towards the end of the period.

&&

Long term /Thursday through Monday/...
as of 300 am Tuesday...cold front enters the area on Friday and may
take a full 24 hours to then be oriented right along the coast line.
This should keep things quite unsettled Friday and probably Saturday
as well. Models cannot seem to decide where the core of the cool air
GOES however. Normally in early September this isn't too big a deal
as cool fronts usually just represent a drop in humidity this far
south. However this cold front will have some considerably cooler
and drier air and the GFS in particular is now hesitant to shove it
this far south. Instead the model keeps the secondary front...the
much cooler air...off to our north and west while the leading and
much weaker front meanders and weakens near the coast for the rest
of the period. The added cloud cover that the front would yield
would keep temperatures down and there will still be an airmass change from
the short term period to be sure...but i'm no longer certain we're
in for a 'refreshing' airmass that we normally experience much later
in the month or even October. A glance at the new 00z European model (ecmwf) would
imply that the late period cool down while still present...may not be
very noteworthy.

&&

Aviation /12z Tuesday through Saturday/...
as of 12z...there is high confidence flight conditions will improve
to VFR today. Light sprinkles are possible this morning...but in
general rainfall chances will decrease as the day progresses.
Although tempo ceiling improvements to MVFR may occur earlier...ceilings
will improve to MVFR 14-16z with VFR developing this afternoon.
Winds will be W-NW...except becoming S-SW at the coastal terminals
this afternoon. Winds will become light/variable this evening as skies
scattered. With saturated soils fog appears likely with MVFR visibilities
developing by 08z all terminals. LIFR appears likely at kflo/klbt
by 09z. Coastal terminals will have tempo LIFR ceilings IFR visibilities due
to a light north wind.

Extended outlook...VFR will prevail Wednesday and Thursday. Showers
and thunderstorms return Friday and Saturday as another cold front nears the
Carolinas.

&&

Marine...
near term /through tonight/...
as of 600 am Tuesday...a front will remain in the vicinity today
and then finally move east and south of the waters tonight. This
will keep winds light across the waters...up to 10 to 15 knots this
morning for the northernmost waters...otherwise 10 knots or less
throughout through tonight. The direction will primarily be
southwest to west southwest today with winds shifting to northwest
and north with a clear frontal passage tonight. Seas will be highest
this morning...up to 3 to 4 feet...subsiding to 3 feet or less this
afternoon and 2 feet or less tonight.

Short term /Wednesday through Thursday night/...
as of 300 am Tuesday...wind and seas both minimal on Wednesday. High
pressure initially over the landmass Wednesday washes out as the day
wears on. NE flow to start the day will give to way light and
somewhat variable flow possibly even dominated by mesoscale sea
breeze at least near the shoreline. Southwesterly flow becomes
established on Thursday as a cold front approaches from the
northwest and the west Atlantic high also strengthens somewhat. Not
looking for seas to increase as a result of the new flow regime on
account of how weak wind speeds stay plus the fact that no
significant swell energy found anywhere over the west Atlantic.

Long term /Friday through Saturday/...
as of 300 am Tuesday...a cold front will approach from the west on
Friday albeit very slowly. There will be very little gradient flow
ahead of the boundary and not much behind it either. It will stall
right along the coastline early Saturday and may even drift a bit
inland as the day wears on. This keeps a southerly component to the
flow through the entire period with speeds hard-pressed to exceed 10
knots. There may be vacillations in direction of the srly flow from southeast
to SW at times especially along the coast with sea breeze
circulations. With such light winds and no swell energy to speak of
seas will remain minimal, capped at 2 feet.

&&

Tides/coastal flooding...
as of 600 am Tuesday...we do expect the next several high tides to
bring a period of minor coastal flooding to the lower Cape Fear
River area...perhaps even into late week as the astronomical tide
slowly wanes. This morning...the downtown Wilmington tide gauge is
expected to reach near 6 feet. High tide is at 1030 am and 11 PM.
The beaches will also experience higher than normal tides...but
departures at high tide are not expected to be significant and no
coastal flooding is expected on the oceanfront.

&&

Ilm watches/warnings/advisories...
SC...none.
NC...coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for ncz107.

Marine...none.

&&

$$

Near term...rjd
short term...mbb
long term...mbb
aviation...mrr
tides/coastal flooding...rjd
Quoting hurricanes2018:


wow look at 91L


That eastcoast system is from the ULL that is currently over the Bahamas.

The weaker system in the Atlantic is 91L.
Quoting 644. HaoleboySurfEC:

Local Wilmington, NC NWS Discussion. Of note is the expectation that coldest air will stay north and west of forecast area.

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
756 am EDT Tuesday Sep 9 2014

Synopsis...
a lingering front along the coast will finally push well south and
east of the area tonight. Drier air will slowly arrive today...with
dry and warm conditions Wednesday and Thursday. A cold front will
arrive late week...drifting south early next week.

&&

Near term /through tonight/...
as of 600 am Tuesday...a cold front has pushed just offshore near
daybreak...but is expected to remain in close proximity to the coast
through the day. The proximity of the front necessitates a very
small mention of a shower today...but no significant precipitation
is expected across the forecast area. A series of shortwaves will
move up along the coast today and as the last in the series moves to
our northeast...the front should finally get kicked to our south and
east tonight.

The corridor of deepest moisture and heaviest rain has shifted off
the coast and the National Weather Service has cancelled the Flood
Watch. Water vapor imagery indicates the really dry air across the
upstate of South Carolina and western North Carolina this morning...
struggling to push east. The column will begin to significantly
dry...first inland where a deepening west to northwest flow will
take hold and then along the coast. We will see precipitable water
values drop from near 2 inches this morning to less than an inch and
a half tonight with the middle levels experiencing the biggest punch of
dry air. This should finally allow more late Summer sunshine to very
slowly develop. However...it will take a good part of the day as low
level moisture will remain trapped underneath a subsidence inversion
this morning. Widespread low stratus is expected to give way to
partial sunshine this afternoon from southwest to northeast with
thick clouds likely lingering along the coast through much of the
afternoon.

Lingering clouds will have an impact on high temperatures today. Where some
sunshine is able to develop longest...we expect highs to reach the
middle 80s. Currently...this seems most probable across the Pee Dee
region. Otherwise...highs should only reach the lower 80s with
perhaps only 80 for a good portion of southeast North Carolina. The
trend toward less cloud cover will accelerate along the coast
tonight. Low level moisture will resist being removed...but the
trend will be for dewpoints to gradually lower. Will forecast lows
in the middle and upper 60s with lower 70s holding on at the beaches.

&&

Short term /Wednesday through Wednesday night/...
as of 300 am Tuesday...zonal middle level flow and a dissipating
surface high on Wednesday will bring a dry day with near seasonable
temperatures. On Thursday the approach of a cold front and a slight
strengthening of the west Atlantic high will boost the afternoon
warmth as well slightly moisten the low levels of the atmosphere.
Most places away from the immediate coastline should warm into the
low 90s. The more noticeable difference between the two days will be
the afternoon apparent temperatures.On Wednesday most places will
top out around 90 degrees but as the dewpoints rise Thursday the
heat indices will be in the upper 90s. Both days this effect will be
considerably tapered along the coast. Models trending a bit faster
with moisture return ahead of next cold front especially the GFS. Will put
low probability of precipitation in towards the end of the period.

&&

Long term /Thursday through Monday/...
as of 300 am Tuesday...cold front enters the area on Friday and may
take a full 24 hours to then be oriented right along the coast line.
This should keep things quite unsettled Friday and probably Saturday
as well. Models cannot seem to decide where the core of the cool air
GOES however. Normally in early September this isn't too big a deal
as cool fronts usually just represent a drop in humidity this far
south. However this cold front will have some considerably cooler
and drier air and the GFS in particular is now hesitant to shove it
this far south. Instead the model keeps the secondary front...the
much cooler air...off to our north and west while the leading and
much weaker front meanders and weakens near the coast for the rest
of the period. The added cloud cover that the front would yield
would keep temperatures down and there will still be an airmass change from
the short term period to be sure...but i'm no longer certain we're
in for a 'refreshing' airmass that we normally experience much later
in the month or even October. A glance at the new 00z European model (ecmwf) would
imply that the late period cool down while still present...may not be
very noteworthy.

&&

Aviation /12z Tuesday through Saturday/...
as of 12z...there is high confidence flight conditions will improve
to VFR today. Light sprinkles are possible this morning...but in
general rainfall chances will decrease as the day progresses.
Although tempo ceiling improvements to MVFR may occur earlier...ceilings
will improve to MVFR 14-16z with VFR developing this afternoon.
Winds will be W-NW...except becoming S-SW at the coastal terminals
this afternoon. Winds will become light/variable this evening as skies
scattered. With saturated soils fog appears likely with MVFR visibilities
developing by 08z all terminals. LIFR appears likely at kflo/klbt
by 09z. Coastal terminals will have tempo LIFR ceilings IFR visibilities due
to a light north wind.

Extended outlook...VFR will prevail Wednesday and Thursday. Showers
and thunderstorms return Friday and Saturday as another cold front nears the
Carolinas.

&&

Marine...
near term /through tonight/...
as of 600 am Tuesday...a front will remain in the vicinity today
and then finally move east and south of the waters tonight. This
will keep winds light across the waters...up to 10 to 15 knots this
morning for the northernmost waters...otherwise 10 knots or less
throughout through tonight. The direction will primarily be
southwest to west southwest today with winds shifting to northwest
and north with a clear frontal passage tonight. Seas will be highest
this morning...up to 3 to 4 feet...subsiding to 3 feet or less this
afternoon and 2 feet or less tonight.

Short term /Wednesday through Thursday night/...
as of 300 am Tuesday...wind and seas both minimal on Wednesday. High
pressure initially over the landmass Wednesday washes out as the day
wears on. NE flow to start the day will give to way light and
somewhat variable flow possibly even dominated by mesoscale sea
breeze at least near the shoreline. Southwesterly flow becomes
established on Thursday as a cold front approaches from the
northwest and the west Atlantic high also strengthens somewhat. Not
looking for seas to increase as a result of the new flow regime on
account of how weak wind speeds stay plus the fact that no
significant swell energy found anywhere over the west Atlantic.

Long term /Friday through Saturday/...
as of 300 am Tuesday...a cold front will approach from the west on
Friday albeit very slowly. There will be very little gradient flow
ahead of the boundary and not much behind it either. It will stall
right along the coastline early Saturday and may even drift a bit
inland as the day wears on. This keeps a southerly component to the
flow through the entire period with speeds hard-pressed to exceed 10
knots. There may be vacillations in direction of the srly flow from southeast
to SW at times especially along the coast with sea breeze
circulations. With such light winds and no swell energy to speak of
seas will remain minimal, capped at 2 feet.

&&

Tides/coastal flooding...
as of 600 am Tuesday...we do expect the next several high tides to
bring a period of minor coastal flooding to the lower Cape Fear
River area...perhaps even into late week as the astronomical tide
slowly wanes. This morning...the downtown Wilmington tide gauge is
expected to reach near 6 feet. High tide is at 1030 am and 11 PM.
The beaches will also experience higher than normal tides...but
departures at high tide are not expected to be significant and no
coastal flooding is expected on the oceanfront.

&&

Ilm watches/warnings/advisories...
SC...none.
NC...coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for ncz107.

Marine...none.

&&

$$

Near term...rjd
short term...mbb
long term...mbb
aviation...mrr
tides/coastal flooding...rjd

Wow.Im sleepy
Good morning!
What means the "L" in red or black of low pressure center?


watch this tropical wave here!!
Quoting 647. GeoffreyWPB:


What means the "L" in red or black of low pressure center?

In the Surface Analysis,
Quoting 650. hurricanes2018:


Su much excitement for a blob,I can t believe it
Quoting 646. prcane4you:

Wow.Im sleepy


You should go back to sleep.
Have to get some work done and will check back later. The last comment on the Bahamas blob, as noted earlier (below), is that the ULL that is currently centered over Cuba is far enough from the surface vort under the blob to provide some ventilation should the Blob try to get a groove on. This is the opposite of the situation yesterday; yesterday we were wondering whether the ULL could work down to the surface and now we are going to see if the surface vort on the Blob can work it's way up now that the ULL has moved away from it:




Quoting 653. proroller:



You should go back to sleep.
Yes,you too.


model more back to the north at 8am
4 you paranoid? generator sale at HD similar setup as last wk except this time the X wont be over land.
Quoting 595. EdMahmoud:

Euro op and means 500 mb, except for possible Bahama system (and something unexpected from the Caribbean) nothing in the Atlantic reaches North America next 10 days. GEFS 500 mb pattern means look favorable for a Caribbean to Florida storm days 10-15, but only if something forms in the Caribbean

Models even have Bermuda safe for now, although a few individual GEFS and Euro ensemble members get fairly close.





On the pattern looking favorable for a 10-15 day Caribbean to Florida threat, nothing apparent, but MJO may get more favorable.



That's not the actual MJO moving into phase 1-2 on the RMM diagrams, it's just projection of a slow moving, low frequency CCKW moving into the western hemisphere, where a favorable (El Nino-like) background state thru Bjerknes feedback is inducing increased convection that naturally slows down equatorial wave speeds.

We saw a great example of CCKW onto the MJO this past July w/ twin CCKWs over the Pacific leading to a "retrograding" MJO, when in reality it was still pushing eastward through the western hemisphere...


Equatorial Waves 200mb VP shows that the MJO is actually currently in the process of exiting the Maritime Continent (phase 5) and over the next several weeks will push into the traditionally unfavorable MJO phases (Phases 6-8 (Pacific)....


However, I noted in some of MJO research to Atlantic TC activity that compared to climatological frequencies in terms of % of total activity by month, October & November are actually most favorable relatively speaking for MJO phases 6-7, which may be partially attributed to the notably earlier peak in the eastern Pacific Hurricane season (August 25) vs the Atlantic (September 10th) and the seasonal behavior of the eastern-central Pacific ITCZ. The numbers below are associated w/ the raw data, as is, (I haven't normalized it yet), but in spite of this, I think it's very significant that ~40% of all phase 7 MJO Atlantic ACE occurs in October, that's about three times the 1974-2012 climatological mean % of total seasonal ACE of ~13.8% in October...




Quoting LargoFl:


You notice how the 06z NAM at 84 hours has the system basically in the same place as the 18z NAM at 84 hours from yesterday?

The NAM seems to stall the system and doesn't know where it should go.

But as I wrote down the page. Most of the models are taking P33L (Bahamas ULL) into the GOM, but they do not develop it.

But that could definitely change with time. Yesterday the other models weren't even picking up the system.
Quoting 632. Sfloridacat5:

Interesting reading the model support for P33L (Bahamas ULL)and most of the models take the system into Florida or Florida Straights and into the GOM.
But at this time they don't develop it. It stays weak.
Im wondering if the coming cold front to the north of us will stop this system from going northward and force it into florida...so far it doesnt seem to grow into anything serious but still time for things to change..i do notice the Gem model keeps it up along the east coast of florida instead of going onto florida like yesterdays runs.
NAM 60HRS

Quoting 658. islander101010:

4 you paranoid? generator sale at HD
All of them sold out.lol
What is going on in the NE Atlantic
Quoting CycloneOz:
Hello blob, how are you.
Quoting 664. GatorWX:

Is comedy hour over?



Some people take life waaayyyyy too serious!
Year after year is the same comedy show.
I thought they got rid of all the DestinJeffs and FLDeweys ... come on, people.
Your severe weather forecast.
This blog is never lacking in entertainment.

Interesting upper level low over the Bahamas. The increased convection is a sign of a weakening upper level low as convection brings warm air and friction up from the surface. There is some mid level reflection underneath the diffluent flow aloft. Surface pressures are pretty high in the area so nothing to worry about at the moment.
Quoting 595. EdMahmoud:

Euro op and means 500 mb, except for possible Bahama system (and something unexpected from the Caribbean) nothing in the Atlantic reaches North America next 10 days. GEFS 500 mb pattern means look favorable for a Caribbean to Florida storm days 10-15, but only if something forms in the Caribbean

Models even have Bermuda safe for now, although a few individual GEFS and Euro ensemble members get fairly close.





On the pattern looking favorable for a 10-15 day Caribbean to Florida threat, nothing apparent, but MJO may get more favorable.




In addition, I'll also throw in the top 10 ACE days in the Atlantic during RMM MJO phase 7, Hurricane Lenny in November 1999 & Hurricane Joan in October 1988 generally top the list...
#1 Nov 18 1999 5.9025 pts ACE
#2 Nov 17 1999 5.2475 pts ACE
#3 Oct 22 1988 4.9325 pts ACE
#4 Aug 9 1976 3.9175 pts ACE
#5 Oct 21 1988 3.5825 pts ACE
#6 Sep 20 2005 3.5075 pts ACE
#7 Aug 16 2004 3.3325 pts ACE
#8 Sep 15 1980 3.24 pts ACE
#9 Oct 11 1995 2.8625 pts ACE
#10 Oct 10 1995 2.4413 pts ACE
Still overcast but the flood watch has been dropped
Floaters up on Bahamas blob:
Quoting 654. LargoFl:




Doesn't move a whole lot on the NAM.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Floaters up on Bahamas blob:
Link?
Juan musn't turn Juan's back on a Bahama seed
Quoting LargoFl:
Im wondering if the coming cold front to the north of us will stop this system from going northward and force it into florida...so far it doesnt seem to grow into anything serious but still time for things to change..i do notice the Gem model keeps it up along the east coast of florida instead of going onto florida like yesterdays runs.



Right now anything is possible. The system is so weak and still basically an ULL so it's likely to continue on a more westerly path (like the system we had late last week).


If the system were to develop faster, it would likely be pulled to the north. The models that develop the system pull it to the north and up the east coast.
The models that keep it very weak bring it across Florida and into the GOM.
Quoting 637. prcane4you:

All the Gulf Coast states are under mandatory evacuation.



I'm good with that. Insurance pays for me to go anywhere I need to, I'm thinking Vegas. Lol
Bahamas blob:
Link
Quoting 676. HurricaneAndre:

Link?


Link
GFS taking the Bahamas low across Southern Fl as a weak system.

683. SLU
There is like no rain in WPB yet Lol but here! :P


Good thing for Florida(and the Bahamas) that there is no major hurricane right now east of south Florida. This steering shows it would probably head towards Florida.
Hey, those are my blobs!!! Go back and look at page 1. :):)


Quoting 671. Drakoen:

This blog is never lacking in entertainment.

Interesting upper level low over the Bahamas. The increased convection is a sign of a weakening upper level low as convection brings warm air and friction up from the surface. There is some mid level reflection underneath the diffluent flow aloft. Surface pressures are pretty high in the area so nothing to worry about at the moment.


Between el nino/lack thereof, long range model worship, season's dead/attention grabbing, people that actually have a sense of humor, etc, yes, it's entertaining. Appreciate the ones that keep it legit, Drak.
Quoting 685. unknowncomic:



Good thing for Florida(and the Bahamas) that there is no major hurricane right now east of south Florida. This steering shows it would probably head towards Florida.


Thanks NHC!
NAM going back to Sunday 12z (Sept 7) was already showing the Bahamas system just off Florida.
It hasn't changed much with its forecast, but it stalls the low and keeps backing up the time frame.

12z NAM back on Sunday - looks very similar to today's run.



As mentioned yesterday and earlier today, the NAM is usually one of the first models to pick up a system. It's wrong about development on many occasions, but it's a very sensitive model and picks up on pretty much every wave.
Quoting HurricaneAndre:
Hello blob, how are you.


I see two blobs
One in Bahamas the other W Carib

Anyway
To EL NIÑO news

For the first time in a long while all 4 niño regions are below 0.5

Link
our good friends the aussies have issued their ENSO report this morning...someone else has already posted their main page.......here is an excerpt from that page that is most interesting....still a good chance we'll see el nino this year


The majority of international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate central tropical Pacific surface temperatures will remain warmer than average, and may exceed El Niño thresholds by the end of the year. These model outlooks and current observations mean the Bureau’s ENSO Tracker remains at WATCH status, indicating at least a 50% chance (double the normal likelihood) of an El Niño forming in 2014.
ENSO 3.4 region is at 0.3C above average for the month
It looks like we will get a named system in the Atlantic in the near future. It "should" be a fish system, but that's not a given.

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I see two blobs
One in Bahamas the other W Carib

Anyway
To EL NI%uFFFD news

For the first time in a long while all 4 ni%uFFFDegions are below 0.5

Link


I mentioned the system in the western Caribbean earlier. The NAM shows it making landfall in northern Mexico at 84 hours.

It's another wild card that should be watched.
here's an important part of the equation.......during the spring we saw the kelvin wave and although it was a very warm snomsly....as it rose...and also as the spring and summer pacific waters warmed...the anomaly value became less and less......this will be different as with fall approaching...the warm water will rise as the pacific waters are cooling offering a greater anomaly

5-day sub-surface temperatures
The sub-surface temperature map for the 5 days ending 7 September shows parts of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are 2–3 °C warmer than average around 100 m depth. As substantial areas of the central and eastern Pacific have low data coverage, as indicated by point observations (cross markings) on the image below, other sources of sub-surface data have also been considered.
30 day SOI value as of 9/7 is -9.7


Quoting 690. CycloneOz:




Quoting 690. CycloneOz:




yes you are.
Trade winds
Trade winds over the equatorial Pacific are near-average (see anomaly map for the 5 days ending 7 September).


trade winds should be weak during an el nino period...this has been a constant hindrance all year with the winds not cooperating
Cloudiness near the Date Line has fluctuated around average during the past two weeks. Until recently cloudiness near the Date Line had been generally below average since the end of July

cloudiness should be above average in an el nino event...and we're seeing that change in the right direction
Impressive area near the Bahamas this morning. Looking better o
rganized.

12Z NAM at 60 hours
Bahamas low and Caribbean system moving into the BOC/GOM

SOI indicating trend has been following ESPI, which is now -.87 & indicating cool neutral to weak La Nina coming with the fall..
I just took a look at WU's satellite imagery over 91L, is it me or does that whole entire invest appear to have some semblance of rotation? Like the whole storm is already rotating. Well worth watching indeed.



if you're a fan of the poma....the means shows a weak event starting in january and lasting only until may.......this doesn't bode well for texans as although some areas have been above average no matter if the event is weak moderate or strong.....with weak events more areas have been below average in respect to precip than above
Quoting Midweststorm:
I just took a look at WU's satellite imagery over 91L, is it me or does that whole entire invest appear to have some semblance of rotation? Like the whole storm is already rotating. Well worth watching indeed.


70% chance of development within the next 5 days (NHC).
SOI indicating trend has been following ESPI, which is now -.87 & indicating cool neutral to weak La Nina coming with the fall..


the soi values fall within el nino range...but you're right....we have yet to see everything fall in place...and in fact...do just the opposite of what you would expect for an el nino event.....
It looks like the actual low is quite a bit south of the main convection.

Maybe we will have 92L at 2pm?? :P
It doesn't look like the Caribbean blob is in a very good environment right now. Maybe it will move into the BOC and things look much more favorable there.
It's getting close to new blog time.
12Z NAM at 84 hours - also take note of the low in the BOC/GOM with a lot of rain over the GOM.
Looks like an uptick in convection in 6 days in the Tropics.
Quoting 703. StormTrackerScott:

Impressive area near the Bahamas this morning. Looking better o
rganized.




Increased convection and definitely rotating at the mid levels. Long way to go but at least it gives us something to watch.
NAM ....

GREENHOUSE GASES AT NEW HIGH

'The Laws Of Physics Are Non-Negotiable... We Are Running Out Of Time...'

Greenhouse Gas Levels In Atmosphere Surged To New High In 2013, World Meteorological Organization Reports
Quoting 710. Grothar:

It looks like the actual low is quite a bit south of the main convection.



Groth it looks like the ULL is centered over central cuba and our new pouch is to the ENE over the turks.
The ULL is actually helping to vent our AOI.


Low shear for the Baha Blob.
Quoting 713. Sfloridacat5:

It's getting close to new blog time.


I always seem to post something within minutes of the new blog, like talking to a wall. Let's see how close I get this time.
Quoting Patrap:
GREENHOUSE GASES AT NEW HIGH

'The Laws Of Physics Are Non-Negotiable... We Are Running Out Of Time...'

Greenhouse Gas Levels In Atmosphere Surged To New High In 2013, World Meteorological Organization Reports


You better start figuring out how to control the green house gas of water vapor (by far, the most prevalent) or we're all doomed!
Quoting 723. CycloneOz:



You better start figuring out how to control the green house gas of water vapor (by far, the most prevalent) or we're all doomed!


And there is 10% more of it now
Quoting 719. Patrap:

GREENHOUSE GASES AT NEW HIGH

'The Laws Of Physics Are Non-Negotiable... We Are Running Out Of Time...'

Greenhouse Gas Levels In Atmosphere Surged To New High In 2013, World Meteorological Organization Reports

faster and faster



its time to add a yellow x soon!
From the Miami NWS Disco (4:01 am)...

MODELS ARE HINTING
THAT AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OR WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND
THEN SLOWLY MOVE WEST AND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF MOVES THIS FEATURE INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL FRIDAY. SO
RAIN CHANCES MAY BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN FORECAST FOR THURSDAY IF
THE TROUGH REMAINS EAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...A WETTER PATTERN
IS IN STORE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA MID/LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

Link
Quoting 724. hydrus:




I spot a landocane in the first image..
Really need Bahama Blob to go away, we are taking a Disney Cruise there with our Granddaughter Sunday for four nights! Dissipate or go West Bahama Blob, and whatever you do, don't just sit there and develop a surface circulation!!! Lol
Quoting hurricanes2018:



its time to add a yellow x soon!
You are right!! Come on NHC, x it, :) :(


Surface blob?
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Given the forecast "drift" towards Florida, NHC is probably taking a close look at the synoptic issues and will probably throw up the yellow crayon later this evening or tomorrow on the Bahamas area if the convection continues to fire and does not dissipate overnight.  We might get an initial 10%. 
Quoting 735. weathermanwannabe:

Given the forecast "drift" towards Florida, NHC is probably taking a close look at the synoptic issues and will probably throw up the yellow crayon later this evening or tomorrow on the Bahamas area if the convection continues to fire and does not dissipate overnight.  We might get an initial 10%. 
Hello the NHC already have a yellow 10% on the Bahamas low.