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Norbert Hits Category 3; Three Minor Atlantic Threat Areas to Watch

By: Jeff Masters 4:13 PM GMT on September 06, 2014

Hurricane Norbert put on an unexpected burst of rapid intensification overnight, topping out as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds at 5 am EDT Saturday. Norbert continues to chug parallel and just offshore from the coast of Mexico's Baja Peninsula, bringing heavy rain and tropical storm-force winds to the coast. Satellite loops on Saturday morning showed that Norbert had a small eye and some very impressive eyewall thunderstorms with cold cloud tops. However, the storm is starting to weaken, thanks to cooler ocean temperatures near 27°C (81 °F), and drier air. The models all show the core of the hurricane remaining just offshore as it moves northwest parallel to the Baja Peninsula over the next three days, so heavy rains of 3 - 6" causing flash flooding will be the primary threat from Norbert to Baja. The counter-clockwise flow of air around the hurricane is pulling moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly and from the tropical Eastern Pacific northwards into Northern Mexico and the Southern Arizona, and this moisture will be capable of causing flooding rains in those regions.

Norbert's intensification into a Category 3 storm gives the Eastern Pacific seven major hurricanes so far this year. With the season typically only 2/3 over by September 9, we have a decent chance of tying or beating the record of ten intense hurricanes in a season, set in 1992 (this tally includes hurricanes in the Central Pacific.) The 2014 tally for the Eastern Pacific currently stands at 14 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 7 intense hurricanes. An average Eastern Pacific hurricane season sees 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes during the entire year. The records for total number of named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes were all set in 1992, with 28 named storms, 16 hurricanes, and 10 intense hurricanes (with the Central Pacific tallies included.)


Figure 1. Hurricane Norbert near Mexico's Baja Peninsula at 10:30 am EDT September 6, 2014. At the time, Norbert was a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.


Figure 2. Predicted seven-day precipitation amounts for the period ending on Saturday, September 13 show a large area of 3+ inches are expected over Southeast U.S., thanks to a weak tropical disturbance. A region of 2+" of rain is expected over Southern Arizona due to the flow of moist air northwards caused by Hurricane Norbert's circulation. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Southeast U.S. disturbance bringing heavy rains
A weak area of low pressure near the coast of Georgia is bringing heavy rain showers to the Southeast U.S. coast and adjacent waters, but this this activity is very disorganized. The disturbance will bring heavy rains in excess of three inches to the coast over the next few days as the low drifts northeastward. After that time, the low will likely merge with a frontal zone over the ocean and head out to sea. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system 2-day and 5-day odd of development odds of 0% and 10%, respectively.

Tropical Wave 90L
A tropical wave (90L) located a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verde Islands is headed west to west-northwest at about 15 mph. Satellite images show 90L has plenty of spin, but little heavy thunderstorm activity. Though Sea Surface Temperatures are fairly warm, 27.5°C (82°F), and wind shear is low, 90L is embedded in a very dry air mass that is expected to get dryer as the storm progresses westwards. None of our three reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation predicts development of 90L over the next five days. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system 2-day and 5-day odd of development odds of 10%. The wave should arrive in the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Wednesday night.

New African Tropical Wave
Following on the heels of 90L will be a new tropical wave that is expected to push off the coast of Africa on Sunday night or Monday morning, bringing heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Cape Verde Islands on Monday and Tuesday. All three of our three reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation show development of the new wave by Wednesday. The new wave will see similar conditions to 90L, though, and will struggle with dry air and moderate wind shear. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system 2-day and 5-day odd of development odds of 0% and 30%, respectively. The wave should take a more northwesterly track then 90L, and not threaten the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting SLU:

I agree, SLU. They definitely need to do a better job. There are some folks on this blog who IMO do a better job than them.
good morning night owls heard a bunch of grips about the atlantic tropics being a sleeper. why do you stay up all night? waiting for the visible shot 90l is chugging along although the vorticity seems south of the clouds. cant wait to see the windw. wave and the bahamas clouds rained late night here with thunder e cen florida
Good Morning..

Quoting 502. StormHunter53:

Quoting SLU:

I agree, SLU. They definitely need to do a better job. There are some folks on this blog who IMO do a better job than them.


NHC is doing a good job. They are the experts. If there people on here who do better then them please apply for the position. Good Luck.
Quoting 506. sporteguy03:



NHC is doing a good job. They are the experts. If there people on here who do better then them please apply for the position. Good Luck.


ha..NOAA has an opening..

Ryan Maue @RyanMaue · Sep 5
Cool job opportunity as NOAA Support Scientist at EMC to overhaul their HWRF graphics & website http://www.imsg.com/job/noa1429-support-scientist- hwrf-web/ …
Quoting 493. EdMahmoud:

Euro has a second, even more impressive cold front than the one that enters Texas in six days in ten days.

Only moderately enthusiastic about 91L, a bit more impressed with a wave to follow later. 91L, which probably never becomes a hurricane per the Euro ( a TD or TS that is opening to a wave on Day 10) seems too far North not to be swept up by that trough and the accompanying front beyond the Day 10 period.

Is that air colder than 4C into Texas in 10 days? Yowza!

91L will go out to sea.
Thank you for your continued blog. We find your comments interesting, accurate and educational.


new tropical storm
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms located
over the far eastern Atlantic is associated with a tropical wave
that recently emerged off the west coast of Africa. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development
of this disturbance during the next several days while it moves
westward or west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

INVEST 91L WENT UP again

A small area of low pressure located about 650 miles west of the
Cape Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to remain
unfavorable for significant development during the next several
days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 10 percent.
I find this ITCZ - Monsoon Trof curious for the first week in Sept.

91L is a pretty strong looking wave. I still think the NHC is overdoing the odds though. It's just now getting its whole self over water. It'll likely be an arduous process for it to develop, although it may keep itself south of most of the SAL in its early stages at least. Probably our best candidate for a CV storm so far, but far from certain and could still easily do nothing as the ECMWF shows now. Regardless, it shouldn't be a threat to land. It should either poof out or, if it develops, recurve east of Bermuda.

Quoting 514. MAweatherboy1:

91L is a pretty strong looking wave. I still think the NHC is overdoing the odds though. It's just now getting its whole self over water. It'll likely be an arduous process for it to develop, although it may keep itself south of most of the SAL in its early stages at least. Probably our best candidate for a CV storm so far, but far from certain and could still easily do nothing as the ECMWF shows now. Regardless, it shouldn't be a threat to land. It should either poof out or, if it develops, recurve east of Bermuda.


The NHC looks pretty sure this one will develop. I am waiting 24 hours to see if thunderstorm activity haven't disappear.
91L has a good chance of becoming a quick spin up (T.S. or Hurricane), but probably won't last long and it will end up in the Central Atlantic headed north well away from any land areas.

90L, which looked so good a couple day ago is just trying to survive. NHC has given up hope on 90L.


invest 90L went back up to 10% again
91L has a good chance of becoming a quick spin up (T.S but will be a fish storm
invest 91L out to sea
The summer swelter and feeling of July is gone, and now September has really show itself. Accuweather says this, "With autumn right around the corner, it is looking like last week could end up being the hottest weather that the Northeast has until 2015."
Autumn is just two weeks away- About 15 days away.
Quoting 522. Climate175:

Autumn is just two weeks away- About 15 days away.

It's coming lol It wuz 34.9F at my pws this morning (East of Grayling Mi). Looks like the garden won't survive to much longer this season
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. Looks like this time next week will be a little more active in here.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: beignets smothered in powdered sugar, banana or corn fritters, Pain perdu (French toast) also smothered in powdered sugar, smoked sausage, broiled boudin patties, bacon and cheddar eggs Sardou, toast or bagels with creole cream cheese, cheesy grits with shrimp, crawfish, cheese and mushroom omelets, scrambled eggs with crawfish Étouffée to pour over it, big fluffy biscuits with sausage gravy, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Creole coffee. Enjoy!
Quoting 524. aislinnpaps:

Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. Looks like this time next week will be a little more active in here.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: beignets smothered in powdered sugar, banana or corn fritters, Pain perdu (French toast) also smothered in powdered sugar, smoked sausage, broiled boudin patties, bacon and cheddar eggs Sardou, toast or bagels with creole cream cheese, cheesy grits with shrimp, crawfish, cheese and mushroom omelets, scrambled eggs with crawfish Étouffée to pour over it, big fluffy biscuits with sausage gravy, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Creole coffee. Enjoy!


Can I place an order??... :P
90-L has a closed circulation, but dry air got wrapped in it.
Quoting sporteguy03:

They are not above criticism, as some folks believe. The 'experts" have made repeated forecast errors this year. From over-estimating the number of named storms for the season to just about forecasting the initial probability of development for every invest or suspect area. I respect them, but I think they just do a job. They report for their shifts and are out of there at clock out time. There is a difference between "doing a job" for employment sake, and having a "passion for a job." If 90L were close to Florida or the Gulf, the 'experts' would have raised the probability to 60 percent or even declared it a depression yesterday. Over the years, I have seen glaring subjectivity and partiality on their part, relative to this.




invest 91L is moving west i guess the modeles are not right.
invest 90L still got a good spin to it.
Good Sunday greetings; I hope everyone is fine.

Disastrous rainfall happened in the region of Gargano/Italy at the Adriatic coast during the last days:



Italy's Gargano hit by deadly floods
The Local, Italy, Published: 07 Sep 2014 08:51 GMT+02:00
One person died and another was missing following devastating floods in the Gargano peninsula in south-eastern Italy, local authorities said Saturday.
Parts of the mountainous area, which is located east of the city of Foggia and forms the 'spur' of the Italian boot, have suffered the heaviest rainfall registered in 80 years with more than 60cm (two feet) falling over the course of recent days, the equivalent of three quarters of the usual annual rainfall.
More than a 1,000 people had to be evacuated from campsites. At least 11 regional roads were unpassable because of the water level and there were severe delays on local train services. ...



Where Gargano is located.
Quoting jdukes:

Yes it sure does. regardless of dry air, though, and the unfavorable environment ahead of it, I think the NHC should treat it with more respect, at least for what it is now. Clearly, the probability of development should have been at least 40 percent yesterday afternoon. It had a closed circulation and impressive curbed bands developing in some quadrants. It was what it was, and even today, it is till holding its own.
Quoting 532. StormHunter53:

Quoting jdukes:

Yes it sure does. regardless of dry air, though, and the unfavorable environment ahead of it, I think the NHC should treat it with more respect, at least for what it is now. Clearly, the probability of development should have been at least 40 percent yesterday afternoon. It had a closed circulation and impressive curbed bands developing in some quadrants. It was what it was, and even today, it is till holding its own.


I think it is at 60% now?
4ºC 850 mb air in the Texas Panhandle in 10 days per Euro. Below freezing at 850 mb into Kansas. Clear skies, light winds, that could be a morning freeze in Kansas.

And the Texans are still undefeated.
Quoting 524. aislinnpaps:

Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. Looks like this time next week will be a little more active in here.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: beignets smothered in powdered sugar, banana or corn fritters, Pain perdu (French toast) also smothered in powdered sugar, smoked sausage, broiled boudin patties, bacon and cheddar eggs Sardou, toast or bagels with creole cream cheese, cheesy grits with shrimp, crawfish, cheese and mushroom omelets, scrambled eggs with crawfish Étouffée to pour over it, big fluffy biscuits with sausage gravy, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Creole coffee. Enjoy!


Oh god, now I'm hungry.
Quoting 528. StormHunter53:

Quoting sporteguy03:

They are not above criticism, as some folks believe. The 'experts" have made repeated forecast errors this year. From over-estimating the number of named storms for the season to just about forecasting the initial probability of development for every invest or suspect area. I respect them, but I think they just do a job. They report for their shifts and are out of there at clock out time. There is a difference between "doing a job" for employment sake, and having a "passion for a job." If 90L were close to Florida or the Gulf, the 'experts' would have raised the probability to 60 percent or even declared it a depression yesterday. Over the years, I have seen glaring subjectivity and partiality on their part, relative to this.


Yes the NHC does indeed make some errors, however, I seriously, seriously doubt that these professionals are just "mailing it in." Weather forecasting can never be an exact science; there are too many variables and unknowns; and these people are still scientists who are highly educated and trained; I do not believe they allow emotion to factor into their decisions to declare an invest. As such your comments cast quite a bit of aspersion on them. And yes, there are indeed many bloggers on here who are highly intelligent, and do an excellent job forecasting, but the majority of us are still armchair meteorologists who NEED to depend on the professionals. If you live in a hurricane-prone area, then this is something you should understand. Having been through every single South Florida hurricane since Andrew, I have learned that it is best to trust NHC!
The last Summer cold front (as compared to next weekends first sort of Autumn cold front and then midweek absolutely first Autumn cold front) is well into Texas. Prefrontal trough has shifted winds through Houston, but 79ºF w/ a 76ºF dewpoint at HOU, not here yet.

DFW, 73ºF with DP 66º with N 9 mph is probably behind the cold front. Not a mega-impressive front, and stalling somewhere near/North Houston with PW >2 inches, could be more rain.

The recent rains mean a TC hit this year in Texas, besides extremely unlikely, is less necessary than it appeared in a very dry July and August. HGX's forecast high for Houston only 90ºF due to expected cloud cover and shower/storm activity as temps reac mid-80s convective temps this afternoon. Rained 3 times in the last week, IMBY, probably more than 6 years since that happened.
I should feel a twing of regret that the parade of cold fronts is the end of the Texas season, even if there were going to be none/few storms that could have threatened anyway, and anything over a low end Cat 1 would threaten family beach property.

But the bright side, October is a big month, sometimes for Florida. Who can forget Opal or Wilma.?
And Hurricane Kate, mid November, 1985. Had been a Cat 3, weakened to a Cat 2 just before landfall in the Panhandle. The six month hurricane season actually holds for Florida.
i am going to laught so hard if invest 91L lost all it rain and t.storms tonight
test
seems ok this am petrol
Quoting 514. MAweatherboy1:

91L is a pretty strong looking wave. I still think the NHC is overdoing the odds though. It's just now getting its whole self over water. It'll likely be an arduous process for it to develop, although it may keep itself south of most of the SAL in its early stages at least. Probably our best candidate for a CV storm so far, but far from certain and could still easily do nothing as the ECMWF shows now. Regardless, it shouldn't be a threat to land. It should either poof out or, if it develops, recurve east of Bermuda.




the NHC has jump the gune on other wave this like the last few the t-storms are al ready going poof I was right about 90L not doing march of any thing looks like 91L will do the same
Quoting ProphetessofDoom:

I agree with you on some points, but I still think they are partial at times and they do a sloppy job at time. A lot of their forecast updates are products of copy and paste from previous versions, with no new scholarly discussions. Not much sweat for six-figure salaries. Last year, or the year before, during the budget crisis and partial federal shutdown, I spoke to the center, relative to a research project, and I was told that most of the "experts" were all out. They did not report for duty -- I guess because they were no longer guaranteed a paycheck. That was not people first!
SC only a moderate cool down. Coldest air stays north and west of Asheville according to this.

Looks like 90L approaching from east at the end of the run (I don't think that would be 91L?). Will be interesting to see if solution verifies (if the cool air makes it further south and east or not).

Quoting 537. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Weather-related: the air is calm over the Iceland eruption this afternoon, so one tall smoke devil after another is being spun up from the very hot lava field as seen on the Mila cameras:

Quoting 548. HaoleboySurfEC:

SC only a moderate cool down. Coldest air stays north and west of Asheville according to this.

Looks like 90L approaching from east at the end of the run (I don't think that would be 91L?). Will be interesting to see if solution verifies (if the cool air makes it further south and east or not).


no that's 91l in bound 90l was the little speck just before it
I dont think mankind would be amiss if everyone took a step back, looked around, and said oh my God what have we done?
its coming to take hurricanes2018 out too sea
**Landfall over Hainan Island is likely within or after 12 hours**

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14
21:00 PM JST September 7 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In South China Sea

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 19.0N 112.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
================
24 HRS: 20.1N 108.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Gulf of Tonkin

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
Storm Warning
TROPICAL STORM FENGSHEN (1414)
21:00 PM JST September 7 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: FENGSHEN In Sea South of Japan

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Fengshen (992 hPa) located at 28.1N 132.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast at 16 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
150 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
80 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Forecast and Intensity
================
24 HRS: 30.3N 138.5E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea South of Japan
48 HRS: 33.7N 146.0E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Off Takaido Road [Chiba Prefecture]
72 HRS: 37.2N 156.8E - Exratropical Low In Sea Far East of Japan
If we're talking Stacy Stewart, a Navy captain who won the Purple Heart in Iraq in an IED explosion that had him in rehab until the middle of the 2008 hurricane season, he was working without guarantee of a paycheck, i guarantee.

And he writes the most awesome discos. I missed this one, power had already gone out not to return for almost a week, but this is a hurricane forecast discussion.

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 48
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008

A PLETHORA OF DATA FROM NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS...NOAA AND AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ALL INDICATE
THAT THE STRUCTURE OF IKE HAS IMPROVED MARKEDLY OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS...AND A 40 NMI DIAMETER EYE HAS BECOME PROMINENT. THE LOWEST
PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECON HAS BEEN 952 MB. DOPPLER RADAR
VELOCITIES IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL AT 6500 FT HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS
114 KT...AND A DROPSONDE IN THAT SAME AREA MEASURED A PEAK WIND
VALUE OF 116 KT. MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB HAVE RANGED
FROM 103-105 KT...AND A RELIABLE SFMR SURFACE WIND SPEED OF 90 KT
WAS MEASURED IN THE SOUTHERN EYEWALL AROUND 0140Z. ALL OF THIS
INFORMATION CORRESPONDS TO A MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF
95 KT.

THE LARGE EYE OF IKE HAS BEEN WOBBLING CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS...BUT A GENERAL MOTION OF 315/10 SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN THE
PREFERRED DIRECTION OF TRAVEL. SHORT TERM EXTRAPOLATION WOULD PLACE
THE CENTER OF IKE ALONG GALVESTON ISLAND AND/OR THE UPPER-TEXAS
COAST SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER LANDFALL...IKE
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED EAST-WEST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
AND TURN NORTHWARD IN ABOUT 12-18 HOURS...AND THEN RECURVE RAPIDLY
TO THE NORTHEAST BY 24 HOURS AHEAD OF A FAST APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM. BY 36-48 HOURS...IKE MAY BECOME ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
ESSENTIALLY JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS DOWN THE
MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE.

IKE STILL HAS ABOUT A 6-HOUR WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN
INTO A 100-KT MAJOR HURRICANE. EQUALLY IMPORTANT...HOWEVER...IS THE
EFFECT THAT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL HAVE ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.
WIND DATA FROM LAND-BASED DOPPLER RADARS AND AIRCRAFT DROPSONDES
INDICATE THAT WINDS NEAR CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH...115 KT OR 130 MPH
...EXIST JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. THERE COULD BE A
REPEAT OF DAMAGE TO WINDOWS IN HIGH RISE STRUCTURES SIMILAR TO WHAT
OCCURRED DURING HURRICANE ALICIA IN 1983. THE PEAK WIND SPEED AND
VARIOUS WIND RADII WERE HELD HIGHER THAN OUR INLAND WIND DECAY
MODELS ARE PREDICTING DUE TO THE MUCH LARGER SIZE OF IKE.

ONE SHOULD EMPHASIZE THAT IKE IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND
REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL...THE
EFFECTS WILL BE FELT AT LARGE DISTANCES FROM THE CENTER. IN
ADDITION...THE LARGEST STORM SURGE WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE ONSHORE
FLOW NEAR OR JUST AFTER LANDFALL. WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY RISEN
MORE THAN 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...INCLUDING GALVESTON ISLAND.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0300Z 28.6N 94.4W 95 KT
12HR VT 13/1200Z 30.3N 95.4W 70 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 14/0000Z 33.2N 95.3W 35 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 14/1200Z 36.6N 92.3W 30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 15/0000Z 40.5N 86.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
72HR VT 16/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BLAKE/BERG

NNNN
10-4, got it. That's a pretty quick crossing...of course that track is basically a straight line shot north of the islands.

Quoting 550. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

no that's 91l in bound 90l was the little speck just before it
Quoting 555. HaoleboySurfEC:

10-4, got it. That's a pretty quick crossing...of course that track is basically a straight line shot north of the islands.


its 10 days at end of run sep 17th today is the 7th
no more yellow x for coastal GA low. But theres always netflix lol
Quoting 552. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

its coming to take hurricanes2018 out too sea
Are you gonna start your Fall Blog in about 8 days, (Sept 15th), or ya gonna wait for the first day of fall.
Quoting 558. LesBonsTemps:



How old are you, 12?


excuse me?
Quoting 477. sar2401:

Since this is your first post, I guess it has been a long time:-) Was your other handle Melwerle then? One thing this blog has is consistency. You'll consistently see the same kind of things over and over.


Was on back in 2005 -2009...lived in savannah at the time but moved here to San Diego. For the life of me, couldn't remember the password or the email address. Same handle but had to add "2" at the end. The forecast here keeps backing off the rain...we could really use a soaking.
Cool air in the far south..

Quoting 559. Climate175:

Are you gonna start your Fall Blog in about 8 days, (Sept 15th), or ya gonna wait for the first day of fall.
thinking I will start the reformat on the 15th and be completely switch up by the end of sept normally wait till oct 15th to do it but we will see how it unfolds the next couple of weeks I guess
Quoting 539. EdMahmoud:

I should feel a twing of regret that the parade of cold fronts is the end of the Texas season, even if there were going to be none/few storms that could have threatened anyway, and anything over a low end Cat 1 would threaten family beach property.

But the bright side, October is a big month, sometimes for Florida. Who can forget Opal or Wilma.?
And Hurricane Kate, mid November, 1985. Had been a Cat 3, weakened to a Cat 2 just before landfall in the Panhandle. The six month hurricane season actually holds for Florida.


Or the mother of all US October hurricanes


Quoting 540. hurricanes2018:

i am going to laught so hard if invest 91L lost all it rain and t.storms tonight
Congratulations on hitting the 40,000 comment mark. I knew you'd make it.

At 50,000 they make you adopt a new screen name. Mine used to be thisonesafishgoingouttosea.

Good luck on hitting 50,000.
Quoting 562. hydrus:

Cool air in the far south..


Hydrus looks like September has finally shown itself.
Quoting 547. StormHunter53:

Quoting ProphetessofDoom:

I agree with you on some points, but I still think they are partial at times and they do a sloppy job at time. A lot of their forecast updates are products of copy and paste from previous versions, with no new scholarly discussions. Not much sweat for six-figure salaries. Last year, or the year before, during the budget crisis and partial federal shutdown, I spoke to the center, relative to a research project, and I was told that most of the "experts" were all out. They did not report for duty -- I guess because they were no longer guaranteed a paycheck. That was not people first!


First, let me say as sincerely as possible, that I thank you for your respectful reply! It is rare in these days, and this blog, to be able to carry on polite discourse. It's much appreciated!

I'm not sure if I would call the forecasting sloppy, but there is no doubt that it was overblown, maybe a result of not enough scientists for discussion! There was a little too much reliance on the models, especially after the upgrades to the GFS seemed to decrease performance, but then, I would imagine that a bias had already set in as a result of preseason predictions of an above-average season. With the models supporting this bias, maybe they did not investigate quite as deeply as they should have! Either way, over the past decade or so, I do not recall a truly busted 3 day forecast when it counted! (Outside of Charley, but to be fair, I believe that the area was still in the cone!)
And lots of rain for you and ncstorm...

I have a shot inland for some training storms this afternoon and isolated high totals. Tonight and tomorrow especially looks like the drencher for the coast.

Quoting 557. K8eCane:

no more yellow x for coastal GA low. But theres always netflix lol
Fresh ASCAT of 90L. Doesn't look quite closed. Taking shear from the SE, the center is exposed in the visible loop.

The cool breezes are nice outside.
Ahhhhhhhhh From low 90's and humid to mid 70's and wonderful. Fall weather finally coming in. Thank goodness. I am so done with the summer crap.
taz be nice u can be just as bad yerself at times
Quoting EdMahmoud:
If we're talking Stacy Stewart, a Navy captain who won the Purple Heart in Iraq in an IED explosion that had him in rehab until the middle of the 2008 hurricane season, he was working without guarantee of a paycheck, i guarantee.

And he writes the most awesome discos. I missed this one, power had already gone out not to return for almost a week, but this is a hurricane forecast discussion.

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 48
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008

A PLETHORA OF DATA FROM NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS...NOAA AND AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ALL INDICATE
THAT THE STRUCTURE OF IKE HAS IMPROVED MARKEDLY OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS...AND A 40 NMI DIAMETER EYE HAS BECOME PROMINENT. THE LOWEST
PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECON HAS BEEN 952 MB. DOPPLER RADAR
VELOCITIES IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL AT 6500 FT HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS
114 KT...AND A DROPSONDE IN THAT SAME AREA MEASURED A PEAK WIND
VALUE OF 116 KT. MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB HAVE RANGED
FROM 103-105 KT...AND A RELIABLE SFMR SURFACE WIND SPEED OF 90 KT
WAS MEASURED IN THE SOUTHERN EYEWALL AROUND 0140Z. ALL OF THIS
INFORMATION CORRESPONDS TO A MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF
95 KT.

THE LARGE EYE OF IKE HAS BEEN WOBBLING CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS...BUT A GENERAL MOTION OF 315/10 SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN THE
PREFERRED DIRECTION OF TRAVEL. SHORT TERM EXTRAPOLATION WOULD PLACE
THE CENTER OF IKE ALONG GALVESTON ISLAND AND/OR THE UPPER-TEXAS
COAST SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER LANDFALL...IKE
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED EAST-WEST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
AND TURN NORTHWARD IN ABOUT 12-18 HOURS...AND THEN RECURVE RAPIDLY
TO THE NORTHEAST BY 24 HOURS AHEAD OF A FAST APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM. BY 36-48 HOURS...IKE MAY BECOME ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
ESSENTIALLY JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS DOWN THE
MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE.

IKE STILL HAS ABOUT A 6-HOUR WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN
INTO A 100-KT MAJOR HURRICANE. EQUALLY IMPORTANT...HOWEVER...IS THE
EFFECT THAT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL HAVE ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.
WIND DATA FROM LAND-BASED DOPPLER RADARS AND AIRCRAFT DROPSONDES
INDICATE THAT WINDS NEAR CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH...115 KT OR 130 MPH
...EXIST JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. THERE COULD BE A
REPEAT OF DAMAGE TO WINDOWS IN HIGH RISE STRUCTURES SIMILAR TO WHAT
OCCURRED DURING HURRICANE ALICIA IN 1983. THE PEAK WIND SPEED AND
VARIOUS WIND RADII WERE HELD HIGHER THAN OUR INLAND WIND DECAY
MODELS ARE PREDICTING DUE TO THE MUCH LARGER SIZE OF IKE.

ONE SHOULD EMPHASIZE THAT IKE IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND
REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL...THE
EFFECTS WILL BE FELT AT LARGE DISTANCES FROM THE CENTER. IN
ADDITION...THE LARGEST STORM SURGE WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE ONSHORE
FLOW NEAR OR JUST AFTER LANDFALL. WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY RISEN
MORE THAN 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...INCLUDING GALVESTON ISLAND.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0300Z 28.6N 94.4W 95 KT
12HR VT 13/1200Z 30.3N 95.4W 70 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 14/0000Z 33.2N 95.3W 35 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 14/1200Z 36.6N 92.3W 30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 15/0000Z 40.5N 86.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
72HR VT 16/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BLAKE/BERG

NNNN


Yep! ive chatted with stacy a few times while interning a Miami wfo. Nobody comes close to his detailed discussions. Browsers forums from time to time. Unfortunately this basin has refused to produce.
Quoting 501. hurricanes2018:
I SAY IT LAST NIGHT INVEST 91L will be a fish storm
Whats new you say that about every storm!!!
91L is in an environment , which is marginally conducive for development. It is at a low latitude deep in the tropics and will continue to track west with the easterly FLOW for a few days. The early runs of the Dynamical and statistical models do not initialize the track properly as 91L will not take that acute turn so early. Looking at the 250-850mb and the 500-850mb steering maps it looks that 91L will continue moving west for sometime. should the system get in a conducive environment with the possible development according to the more reliable models then 91l could be a be the player down the road and one of the big threats this hurricane season. THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE ANY FISH STORM.
Quoting 572. Doppler22:

Ahhhhhhhhh From low 90's and humid to mid 70's and wonderful. Fall weather finally coming in. Thank goodness. I am so done with the summer crap.


I'd like some of that, we are in the same boat, hot and humid, yuck...

Quoting 571. Tazmanian:




lol don't Congratulation him hes nothing but a troll and a vary annyouing bloger has he likes to repet stuff over and over and over

Okay, I take it back.  I will put him on my "Blocked bloger" list immediately. (pretty sure there's a Blocked Bloger list.... if not, there should be..

Just wish there was some way to edit that post.... oh, well, the damage is done, I guess....
Quoting 551. K8eCane:

I dont think mankind would be amiss if everyone took a step back, looked around, and said oh my God what have we done?


I know. Mrs. Grothar and I did that on our wedding day.
Experts from Florida the ends is coming soon.I will miss your funny weather comments.
581. MahFL
Quoting 403. ncstorm:

microsoft repair kept opening up in different windows..


That sounds like a virus actually, what exactly was the name of it ?
Quoting 576. stoormfury:

91L is in an environment , which is marginally conducive for development. It is at a low latitude deep in the tropics and will continue to track west with the easterly FLOW for a few days. The early runs of the Dynamical and statistical models do not initialize the track properly as 91L will not take that acute turn so early. Looking at the 250-850mb and the 500-850mb steering maps it looks that 91L will continue moving west for sometime. should the system get in a conducive environment with the possible development according to the more reliable models then 91l could be a be the player down the road and one of the big threats this hurricane season. THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE ANY FISH STORM.
At the end MORE FISH FOR YOU.
Quoting 576. stoormfury:

91L is in an environment , which is marginally conducive for development. It is at a low latitude deep in the tropics and will continue to track west with the easterly FLOW for a few days. The early runs of the Dynamical and statistical models do not initialize the track properly as 91L will not take that acute turn so early. Looking at the 250-850mb and the 500-850mb steering maps it looks that 91L will continue moving west for sometime. should the system get in a conducive environment with the possible development according to the more reliable models then 91l could be a be the player down the road and one of the big threats this hurricane season. THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE ANY FISH STORM.
At the end MORE FISH FOR YOU.
90L cut quite a swath through that SAL.

Hope it (91L) is an interesting one to watch.

Quoting 576. stoormfury:

91L is in an environment , which is marginally conducive for development. It is at a low latitude deep in the tropics and will continue to track west with the easterly for a few days. The early runs of the Dynamical and statistical models do not initialize the track properly as 91L will not take that acute turn so early. Looking at the 250-850mb and the 500-850mb steering maps it looks that 91L will continue moving west for sometime. should the system get in a conducive environment with the possible development according to the more reliable models then 91l could be a be the player down the road and one of the big threats this hurricane season. THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE ANY FISH STORM.
SINCE YOU ALL LOVE FISHES SO MUCH, THERE IS LOTS OF ROOM IN THE GOMEX. TO PRCTICE ANGLING
Quoting 528. StormHunter53:

Quoting sporteguy03:

They are not above criticism, as some folks believe. The 'experts" have made repeated forecast errors this year. From over-estimating the number of named storms for the season to just about forecasting the initial probability of development for every invest or suspect area. I respect them, but I think they just do a job. They report for their shifts and are out of there at clock out time. There is a difference between "doing a job" for employment sake, and having a "passion for a job." If 90L were close to Florida or the Gulf, the 'experts' would have raised the probability to 60 percent or even declared it a depression yesterday. Over the years, I have seen glaring subjectivity and partiality on their part, relative to this.


Ok first off, the NHC does not produce forecasts for the number of storms expected in the season. NOAA does not the NHC. They are still experts, these are some of the most experienced individuals in the world on the tropics. Yeah they make mistakes, but they learn from their mistakes and research the why and how and write scholarly summaries at the end of the season based on their research. Making mistakes does not mean you are not knowledgeable or an expert on a topic. Yeah they make percentages on the chances for a area to be a named storm do you ever see 100% chance of a Tropical Storm, of course not unless it it determined by data to be the case based on recon or windsat. Based on the tools they use they come up with what their data and research tell them will transpire and assign a percentage to it. It doesn't mean it will or won't happen which bugs a lot of bloggers.
The NHC has even said they could care less about numbers from a facebook post they had last year. Their job is not up numbers, it is To save lives, mitigate property loss, and improve economic

efficiency by issuing the best watches, warnings,

forecasts and analyses of hazardous tropical

weather, and by increasing understanding of these hazards.
New 12Z sfc chart finds 91L very interesting



A double low on a tropical wave
Quoting 586. stoormfury:

SINCE YOU ALL LOVE FISHES SO MUCH, THERE IS LOTS OF ROOM IN THE GOMEX. TO PRCTICE ANGLING



no need too yell and act like hurricane2018
Quoting 586. stoormfury:
SINCE YOU ALL LOVE FISHES SO MUCH, THERE IS LOTS OF ROOM IN THE GOMEX. TO PRCTICE ANGLING
Mabe they would like a little crow with that FISH!!
Cicadas agree this morning that summer is not officially over despite this cooling.
Quoting 403. ncstorm:

microsoft repair kept opening up in different windows..




you guys need too be care full on what you down lode on the net and where you are getting it from and where and if you are not sure what it is that you are downloading then ask one of us some times you think you may be smart and you no ever thing but some time you can be vary wrong and you end up messing up your laptop and you have too pay some one too re move what ever that you downloaded

so be carful what you downloaded out there
This brought me some thunder, lightning & rain in the night..

Quoting 594. Grothar:





I saw it 1st
Quoting 598. Grothar:


Did you answer my WU mail yet?

Quoting 586. stoormfury:

SINCE YOU ALL LOVE FISHES SO MUCH, THERE IS LOTS OF ROOM IN THE GOMEX. TO PRCTICE ANGLING
Couldn't agree more.


Looks like 91L might have a fighting chance.

Norbert is fizzling as per the usual upon hitting the cold wall.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.