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New Go-To App for the iPad: WunderStation for Personal Weather Stations

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:46 PM GMT on September 04, 2014

The world's largest Personal Weather Station (PWS) network--Weather Underground's 37,000 individually-owned weather stations across the globe--just got a major software upgrade. WunderStation for iPad, released today (for free) in the App Store and on iPad, provides the weather enthusiast a fantastic interface to the world's most in-depth set of weather observations. Started in 2001, the Weather Underground PWS network was developed to address the growing need for our meteorologists to gain access to more granular data. The network allows us to access weather data from actual neighborhoods, not just from the closest airport, and our meteorologists spent over five years developing and testing a revolutionary forecasting system which produces weather forecasts specific for each personal weather station around the globe.





Some highlights of the new WunderStation for iPad App:
- View current conditions from any weather station including temperature, feels-like temperatures, wind speed and direction, wind gusts, humidity, dew point, pressure, rain accumulation and rate, and moon phase


- 10-day and hourly forecasts including temperature, feels like, dewpoint, pressure, humidity, chance of precipitation, cloud cover, wind speed and direction, sunrise and sunset


- Historical highs and lows for temperature, humidity, pressure, rain accumulation, rain rate, and dewpoint viewable by hour, day, week, month, or year, going back up to 3 years


- Sky conditions including sunrise, sunset, total hours of day, total hours of night, and moon phases


- Rainfall totals and rain rate, with ability to set your own water year


- Customizable graphs: overlay as many or as few measurements as you'd like and compare historical conditions


- Drag, drop, add or delete content widgets to create a customized experience according to your data preferences


- Animated wind direction, rainfall totals, and temperature


- Toggle between different viewing options: infographic or graph view


- View a map of all 37,000 weather stations in Weather Underground's network and save any station to your list


- Swipe right and left to view your saved stations



For PWS owners:
- Update your personal weather station's status to better serve others viewing your station's data


- Solar radiation and UV index widgets available for stations that have these extra sensors

For more info
For additional info on the app and to check out our fun promo video, visit wunderstation.com. Please share with your social networks as well.

Want to join our network? If you’re interested in setting up your own personal weather station or know someone who might be interested, let us know! For additional info on how to get started, visit: http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/about.asp.

WunderStation for iPad is available for free in the iTunes App Store.

Jeff Masters

Recent News

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 484. hydrus:

Wilma was an amazing storm to watch form.




I liked how it messed with everyone when the eye did the circle dance loop de loop maneuver
Quoting 470. win1gamegiantsplease:



It takes a 1200' surge to get beer? Just thinking about football this weekend will round up that need.
This is true. but if I run out when the surge moves in, i,ll be castigated for not being prepared.
Quoting 452. Grothar:

It's ALIVE!






Been watching that carib feature at work. Slow night. 90 came back too. Figured it would actually. It's a very prosperous looking wave likely with a closed surface circ or very close to it. Nice anticyclone along with it. It has good potential imo. Seems trof should keep it in check if it does indeed move n of islands. Never know though.



Seasons like this are tough to contend with. Hope for the best, expect the worse.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Be that as it may it still doesn't really help still at least too much anyway

Plus with the fact that a good portion of the island is below sea level
It surely does not help

Hey Bro, have to disagree ,even though my parents live across street on the sea side and I live across the street from them I'm 8 feet above sea level and they are 11 feet above sea level, The overall average for Grand Cayman is about 12-15 feet above sea level.
Link
Quoting 501. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



I liked how it messed with everyone when the eye did the circle dance loop de loop maneuver
It was during that time I believe we were looking at a 200 mph hour hurricane. One could only guess what the gusts may have been.
Quoting 501. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



I liked how it messed with everyone when the eye did the circle dance loop de loop maneuver


One Wilma memory that sticks with me was an HH flight. She was rapidly intensifying; there was a data blackout for an extended period. Several hours I think. The blog, myself included, was a bit concerned for them for a while.
I am out....a safe night to all.
Quoting 501. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



I liked how it messed with everyone when the eye did the circle dance loop de loop maneuver
I liked the image later with the entire island of Cozumel in the eye... at the time, I was remembering Mitch and thinking what would have happened if Wilma had hit in a similar location....

Quoting 506. StormJunkie:



One Wilma memory that sticks with me was an HH flight. She was rapidly intensifying; there was a data blackout for an extended period. Several hours I think. The blog, myself included, was a bit concerned for them for a while.


I remember that. Was an intense evening. I believe it was evening. I do remember pretty much staying up all night for Wilma once. Was astonished!
Quoting 508. BahaHurican:

I liked the image later with the entire island of Cozumel in the eye... at the time, I was remembering Mitch and thinking what would have happened if Wilma had hit in a similar location....




I thought it'd be wiped off the map, that island. It stalled too. Yikes!
Quoting 500. Stormchaser2007:



The CHS office thinks the speed of the front will be a major factor in whether there is any sort of development. Front faster, then no development. Front a bit slower, and pretty decent chance of an STS. The area is high on the "chatter" index imho.
Quoting 506. StormJunkie:



One Wilma memory that sticks with me was an HH flight. She was rapidly intensifying; there was a data blackout for an extended period. Several hours I think. The blog, myself included, was a bit concerned for them for a while.


I remember the night when she bottomed out at 882mb.
Quoting 478. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


that's some tornado


Quoting 509. GatorWX:



I remember that. Was an intense evening. I believe it was evening. I do remember pretty much staying up all night for Wilma once. Was astonished!


i think it may have been more like a "late" evening if memory serves me correctly.
Quoting 500. Stormchaser2007:

There's an upper-level disturbance off the Florida coast that probably needs to be watched in my opinion. Once the front blows through the east coast this weekend and creates more of a temperature gradient (SE coast/Gulf Stream), this disturbance may become more convectivey active. Fortunately, this has actually gained some support from the 12z ECMWF, CMC, and past runs of the UKMET. Even the NAM is starting to hint at a surface low developing off of SC. If something were to develop, proximity to land and time would probably be the huge limiting factors...

Still, its better than watching a moisture starved low traverse the record stability of the MDR

12z ECMWF 850 vort @ 72 hours (looks better on the hi-res maps in 3-hour increments)



The GFS keeps this feature over land until it emerges off of North Carolina and keeps it cold-cored.

We'll see what happens, but I wouldn't put money on development. Overall, the models do give a resolution to a more active Atlantic as the possibility is there for the basin to have 1-4 named storms develop over the next couple of weeks.
Quoting 514. TropicalAnalystwx13:





wilma's circle dance

Link
Worked 12 hrs today, looked for the transcript from that night but couldn't find it. Here's a reference to it the next day.

Quoting REELTIME:
most of us stayed up last night till 5am watching wilma intensify as the HH fed us data. It was pretty wild, at one point the HH lost a lot of altitude an the data stop for about 15 min we thought the plane crashed.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Go to cayman gov. Lands and survey dept
There is no Cayman.gov. There's a www.gov.ky. Not even close. There is no lands and survey department on that web site. The lands and survey department website is http://www.caymanlandinfo.ky. Not even close. There are no topographic maps on that web site except maps for sale by mail. The only map on that web site is a tourist map of Grand Cayman.

You can go to this topographic map web site to find topos of the Grand Cayman, Cayman Brac, and Little Cayman. The lowest elevation on all three maps is zero feet.

I'll ask you once again - where is the "good portion" of the Caymans that's below sea level?
Quoting 520. sar2401:

There is no Cayman.gov. There's a www.gov.ky. Not even close. There is no lands and survey department on that web site. The lands and survey department website is http://www.caymanlandinfo.ky. Not even close. There are no topographic maps on that web site except maps for sale by mail. The only map on that web site is a tourist map of Grand Cayman.

You can go to this topographic map web site to find topos of the Grand Cayman, Cayman Brac, and Little Cayman. The lowest elevation on all three maps is zero feet.

I'll ask you once again - where is the "good portion" of the Caymans that's below sea level?
sar time to let it go

wkc is well wkc
Quoting 491. BahaHurican:

Only problem with this is that any storm I can find that will hit him is extremely likely to have hit me first, usually at a higher intensity....

[sigh]


A storm that moves through the FL straits and hits the westerlies over the central Gulf and moves fast through Central FL from the SW would be safely watchable in the Bahamas.
Quoting 518. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



wilma's circle dance

Link
Had that been over land can you imagine the damage...truly mind boggling.
Quoting 521. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

sar time to let it go

wkc is well wkc


True :) __-kid-__.
Interesting development in the SW Caribbean, yes? Can't tell if it's interaction with ULL to it's NW or not, but it already seems to have westerly component to the winds at the surface. Any models initiated anything there? Just wondering.
Quoting 523. Abacosurf:

Had that been over land can you imagine the damage...truly mind boggling.
imagine trying to run away from it dam thing make it feel like it was chasing ya
Quoting 521. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

sar time to let it go

wkc is well wkc


Got to remember KOTG...Every day there is someone new eying our nonsense that needs to learn "who & how" to take in "context"...
Quoting 525. Look2thesky:

Interesting development in the SW Caribbean, yes? Can't tell if it's interaction with ULL to it's NW or not, but it already seems to have westerly component to the winds at the surface. Any models initiated anything there? Just wondering.
nothing just a recent dev area over the last 12 hrs or there abouts
Pressure 30.10", my lil low is pretty high!

Quoting 526. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

imagine trying to run away from it dam thing make it feel like it was chasing ya


Why would you run away from it? I'd have a hurricane party.
Quoting 527. StormJunkie:



Got to remember KOTG...Every day there is someone new eying our nonsense that needs to learn "who & how" to take it in context...
ya but he does a great job with the lifted eye brow thing that's his own doing or undoing however one looks at it
Quoting 529. DonnieBwkGA:

Pressure 30.10", my lil low is pretty high!




It's a mesoscale low. The area that may be of interest is still over the Bahamas...But will be drifting NNW and could develop a surface feature. If I'm understanding the whole scenario correctly, and going by the way the CHS office has been talking.
Quoting 445. StormTrackerScott:

From Weatherbell.

Early snow as we near end of the arctic melt season

Summer isn’t even over yet, but snow has already fallen in some parts of southern Alberta.

Areas south of Chain Lakes got a sprinkling of snow on Wednesday morning, much to the surprise of many who are still trying to enjoy the last days before fall.

“It seems like it’s going to be an early winter,” said Michael Kosolofski. “The geese are already flying south, and it seems like it’s colder than normal for September.”

Highway cameras also captured photos of snow along Highway 22X, and ski resorts such as Sunshine Village and Fernie Alpine Resort have also reported snow falls.



Getting an image from my screen to here is a pain so I'll just say verbally that 2M temperatures over the Central Arctic ice pack near the north pole are now down to -9C. It's melting from the edges and bottom for perhaps another ten days but absolutely no longer from the top this season. Summer is over up there. 2M temperatures over this area in summer are usually near 0C and are constrained by ice melt. That season is gone, over, done. This is seasonally normal.

In 1992 a substantial snowstorm buried the foothills of the Rockies in Alberta and Montana in late August, the Andrew weekend. That was exceedingly early for the region.

Be interesting to see if a summer of polar outbreaks is followed by a fall of increasingly intense polar and then arctic outbreaks in North America. First half of fall 1974 had a lot of these.. then it stopped and the last half was moderate to warm and the winter was very warm in the East. For a cool late summer followed by an awful winter look to 1976.
Quoting 530. Astrometeor:



Why would you run away from it? I'd have a hurricane party.
true one cannot out run the wind guess lets have a party then go out laughing in 200 mile per hr winds
Quoting 532. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

ya but he does a great job with the lifted eye brow thing that's his own doing or undoing however one looks at it


I will say that WKC's special brand of nonsense brings a certain level of "entertianment" factor to the blog. It's the "Howard Stern" phenomenon...The haters always listened more hours per day than the fan.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
There's an upper-level disturbance off the Florida coast that probably needs to be watched in my opinion. Once the front blows through the east coast this weekend and creates more of a temperature gradient (SE coast/Gulf Stream), this disturbance may become more convectivey active. Fortunately, this has actually gained some support from the 12z ECMWF, CMC, and past runs of the UKMET. Even the NAM is starting to hint at a surface low developing off of SC. If something were to develop, proximity to land and time would probably be the huge limiting factors...

Still, its better than watching a moisture starved low traverse the record stability of the MDR

12z ECMWF 850 vort @ 72 hours (looks better on the hi-res maps in 3-hour increments)

I'm more than a little confused by this whole ULL now. The Monday surface map shows the stalled front through the SE with the trough and ULL offshore -



On Tuesday, it shows the trough up off SC but there's now a low on the stalled front -



On Wednesday, the low is shown off the New England coast, apparently with the trough trailing behind it -



Then, on Thursday, it shows the low off the coast of New Jersey attached to the stationary front with a new trough coming out of the bottom -



So I have no idea what low came from where, if the low formed on the tail end of the front, or if this is from the ULL off Florida.
.DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
GENERATED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ON THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 16N WEST OF 77W.

StormJunkie I think we could get some heavy rain from this little thing. Wind is NNW, 3 mph, pressure 30.11". Who said we don't get tropical landfalls! :P
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
sar time to let it go

wkc is well wkc
For you, I'll do it. We know the truth.
537...Yeah, it's a convoluted scenario to say the least. Which can be seen by all the differences in the way each model is handling it.

00z GFS seems to show the area inland at the armpit of the SE. So it seems the GFS is tracking the mesolow?

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ya but he does a great job with the lifted eye brow thing that's his own doing or undoing however one looks at it
My eyebrow gets lifted a lot higher for some things than others, Keep.
Quoting 541. sar2401:

For you, I'll do it. We know the truth.
and that's all that matters thanks
Quoting 540. DonnieBwkGA:

StormJunkie I think we could get some heavy rain from this little thing. Wind is NNW, 3 mph, pressure 30.11". Who said we don't get tropical landfalls! :P


Certainly could be a rainmaker for a couple days. Tropical? I'm not drinking the Kool Aid just yet.


MORE TROPICAL WAVE coming soon.
This radar shot shows the scale nicely.

Oh to have the technology to film Wilma at the surface at peak intensity. Stick me in a life sustaining pod and send me out, lol.
Oh come on StormJunkie, this is the most tropical excitement I've seen in the 3 1/2 years I've lived here :)
Quoting 547. DonnieBwkGA:

This radar shot shows the scale nicely.




It needs to back off the coastline to the E a bit.
Quoting 487. BahaHurican:

Well, now I'm so alert I'm having a hard time getting to sleep.... lol ...
better go play that happy song a few dozen times....


Any time I feel a drowsy in the morning, "I get a rhythm"with Johny Cash. It is drizling now in Sarasota. I got a ring neck snake nearly four inches long, climbed in a coke bottle, and I picked him up. Well just listen to advise from such a friendly snake. He whispered in my ear and you won't be wrong, waters high, they's a storm a' comin.
Quoting StormJunkie:
537...Yeah, it's a convoluted scenario to say the least. Which can be seen by all the differences in the way each model is handling it.

00z GFS seems to show the area inland at the armpit of the SE. So it seems the GFS is tracking the mesolow?

I really don't get it. The satellite photo seems to show the trough crossing Florida westbund right now. The trough had the ULL with it this morning. Is there another ULL off the east coast of Florida now? It sure doesn't look like it.

Let's see if 40 frames will work.

554. JLPR2
Classic example of getting too excited about development before waiting for the disturbance to sustain convection for a decent amount of time.



It has good structure but it needs to sustain heavy convection to organize further.
Quoting DonnieBwkGA:
This radar shot shows the scale nicely.

Just tie down the lawn furniture and you'll be OK until it passes.
Quoting 549. DonnieBwkGA:

Oh come on StormJunkie, this is the most tropical excitement I've seen in the 3 1/2 years I've lived here :)


00z 54hrs...Still has it onshore. That is likely the only limiting factor to development. Sar, I really don't know what to think. Just watching and waiting to see how it plays out.

Quoting 554. JLPR2:

Classic example of getting too excited about development before waiting for the disturbance to sustain convection for a decent amount of time.



It has good structure but it needs to sustain heavy convection to organize further.


Dude, **** this hurricane season. I'm not even watching anymore.

Well, in the Pacific I am.
Quoting Grothar:
It's ALIVE!





A truly GRO-BLOB if ever there was one.
ULL is leaving behind some mid-level energy

Quoting 554. JLPR2:

Classic example of getting too excited about development before waiting for the disturbance to sustain convection for a decent amount of time.



It has good structure but it needs to sustain heavy convection to organize further.


Stick to the SJ rule...If it's not in this frame, then just watch the model trends and wait until it gets there.

Quoting 547. DonnieBwkGA:

Our atmosphere is 5X more moist and unstable since I left for work today.



Except over the MDR, where there's .. no landmass.
Relax BAHA 90L is a Bermuda storm .
But we will see.
ASCAT gets a partial pass..
Quoting StormJunkie:


00z 54hrs...Still has it onshore. That is likely the only limiting factor to development. Sar, I really don't know what to think. Just watching and waiting to see how it plays out.

Yeah, I guess. I don't know how one ULL can create all this confusion.
Quoting redwagon:
Quoting 547. DonnieBwkGA:

Our atmosphere is 5X more moist and unstable since I left for work today.



Except over the MDR, where there's .. no landmass.


Where are you redwagon?
Quoting JLPR2:
Classic example of getting too excited about development before waiting for the disturbance to sustain convection for a decent amount of time.



It has good structure but it needs to sustain heavy convection to organize further.
It'll be interesting see what percentages the NHC gives it at 2:00.
Quoting 565. sar2401:

Yeah, I guess. I don't know how one ULL can create all this confusion.


interaction with the approaching front? GFS still keeping it onshore. Persistent with this scenario; and I have a hard time not believing it. Lot's of model support for it developing a surface signature of some type. How it happens entirely over land confuses me a bit.

00z 72hrs.


Quoting DonnieBwkGA:
Let's see if 40 frames will work.

It did. It never works for me.
Quoting 548. ProgressivePulse:

Oh to have the technology to film Wilma at the surface at peak intensity. Stick me in a life sustaining pod and send me out, lol.


Wouldn't mind seeing a video from Wake Island during Ioke, although it was not nearly as intense at that time or ever. Wilma was a beast and like nothing I've seen before or since. The 4 nm wide eye, 180 mph 1 min sustained. I agree with Hydrus in that's it's possible the readings weren't completely accurate and/or missed the storm at peak. Very scary system and I can't even imagine being caught inside something like that. To compare it to a tornado doesn't even do it justice.
Quoting 556. sar2401:

Just tie down the lawn furniture and you'll be OK until it passes.


We usually throw em in the pool. Word of advice.
Quoting StormJunkie:


interaction with the approaching front? GFS still keeping it onshore. Persistent with this scenario; and I have a hard time not believing it. Lot's of model support for it developing a surface signature of some type. How it happens entirely over land confuses me a bit.

00z 72hrs.


The idea this morning was the front coming down would interact with the mid-level energy and create a baroclinic low off the tail end of the front. It was then supposed to follow the stalled front and be up and OTS on Thursday. Now there's this...thing...on land and the surface map shows a low off New England on Thursday but retrograding to off New Jersey by Friday? Must be some battling models going on.
Quoting 571. GatorWX:



We usually throw em in the pool. Word of advice.


haha
574. JRRP
Quoting JLPR2:
Classic example of getting too excited about development before waiting for the disturbance to sustain convection for a decent amount of time.



It has good structure but it needs to sustain heavy convection to organize further.


The GFS don't see develop until Monday
Quoting 568. StormJunkie:



interaction with the approaching front? GFS still keeping it onshore. Persistent with this scenario; and I have a hard time not believing it. Lot's of model support for it developing a surface signature of some type. How it happens entirely over land confuses me a bit.

00z 72hrs.





If you follow 850 ht on CMC/GEM, takes the little swirly low over coastal GA and develops it. Least that's the way it looks to me. Not very clear cut though I'll admit.
Quoting 549. DonnieBwkGA:

Oh come on StormJunkie, this is the most tropical excitement I've seen in the 3 1/2 years I've lived here :)
Congratulations on your weather event Donnie. My cousins live right up the road from you. They arrived right before Georgia became Indian territory, from the next two states up
in 17 something. This year ain't over.
Quoting GatorWX:


We usually throw em in the pool. Word of advice.
Well, yeah, good idea if you have a pool.
Yeah Sar, some conflicting theories for sure. I'm just going to sit back and watch it play out...And deal with some sort of radiator/coolant problem in the ride. Good times.

Another 12 hr day tomorrow. Night all.
Quoting 573. KoritheMan:



haha


It works :)
Quoting 578. StormJunkie:

Yeah Sar, some conflicting theories for sure. I'm just going to sit back and watch it play out...And deal with some sort of radiator/coolant problem in the ride. Good times.

Another 12 hr day tomorrow. Night all.


Have fun with the vehicle. Night SJ
581. JRRP
Can it be December already?? The thought of having an El Nino along with that huge warm pool in the Gulf of Alaska has me drooling. Frequent invasions of cold air with a noisy subtropical jet....

And just because I mentioned this, that warm pool will vanish next week. :-p


TERRA pass of 90L earlier today.

584. JLPR2
Quoting 554. JLPR2:

Classic example of getting too excited about development before waiting for the disturbance to sustain convection for a decent amount of time.



It has good structure but it needs to sustain heavy convection to organize further.


I think I broke a personal record for most quoted comment. xD

Also, I wanted to add to this: There are exceptions to this, a system could show a pronounced (dramatic) change in organization in a relatively short period of time, but that is simply not happening in 2014, everything is gradual.

I think the NHC will keep their %s at 2am the same, as JRRP said, the GFS doesn't see development in the short term.
Evening everyone! Noticed the talk about Wilma so I had to chime in! A few memories stand out from my Wilma experience: the 5-day cone that had Wilma making landfall at New Orleans. I had been looking at the maps and seeing the cold front that was sweeping down and thought they might be wrong, but everyone just laughed at me! (And, it's one of the reasons for my handle, ha ha! Then I remember the eye coming over us in West Boca. We saw all the tree limbs down, ran out to get them out of the way, and then ran back in when the eye wall started coming across. I remember the watching the last band clear out and the temperature dropping 20 degrees in the next 60 minutes! But my favorite Wilma memory is waking up around 7:30 AM just as the real bands were coming in, turning to my hubby, and saying let's go make the coffee before we lose electricity. The coffee finished brewing, beeped to let us know, and the electricity went off for the next 7 days!
Quoting GatorWX:


Wouldn't mind seeing a video from Wake Island during Ioke, although it was not nearly as intense at that time or ever. Wilma was a beast and like nothing I've seen before or since. The 4 nm wide eye, 180 mph 1 min sustained. I agree with Hydrus in that's it's possible the readings weren't completely accurate and/or missed the storm at peak. Very scary system and I can't even imagine being caught inside something like that. To compare it to a tornado doesn't even do it justice.
I'd like to see a video of the actual battle at Wake Island in 1941. Talk about scared. One major, 450 Marines, four Wildcat fighters, and six 5" guns taking on the entire Imperial Japanese Empire. I don't think I could ever be that brave.
588. JLPR2
It is worth mentioning 90L is self sustainable, you can see the ITCZ/Monsson trof to the south of it. I don't think we have seen a TW manage that that far east so far this year.



*Edit*
Monsoon trof is visible to the SW of 90L.
Quoting StormJunkie:
Yeah Sar, some conflicting theories for sure. I'm just going to sit back and watch it play out...And deal with some sort of radiator/coolant problem in the ride. Good times.

Another 12 hr day tomorrow. Night all.
GN, SJ. Maybe your car and the ULL will be all straightened out by tomorrow.
Quoting 585. ProphetessofDoom:

Evening everyone! Noticed the talk about Wilma so I had to chime in! A few memories stand out from my Wilma experience: the 5-day cone that had Wilma making landfall at New Orleans. I had been looking at the maps and seeing the cold front that was sweeping down and thought they might be wrong, but everyone just laughed at me! (And, it's one of the reasons for my handle, ha ha! Then I remember the eye coming over us in West Boca. We saw all the tree limbs down, ran out to get them out of the way, and then ran back in when the eye wall started coming across. I remember the watching the last band clear out and the temperature dropping 20 degrees in the next 60 minutes! But my favorite Wilma memory is waking up around 7:30 AM just as the real bands were coming in, turning to my hubby, and saying let's go make the coffee before we lose electricity. The coffee finished brewing, beeped to let us know, and the electricity went off for the next 7 days!


That's my fondest memory too from my location, the temp drop. Weird when you just had a hurricane. It didn't last long where I was, but it was very pronounced.
This is some ridge. Euro @240hrs.
Quoting 591. GatorWX:



That's my fondest memory too from my location, the temp drop. Weird when you just had a hurricane. It didn't last long where I was, but it was very pronounced.


Way too short-lived, but at least it was two days when going without air conditioning wasn't painful!!! Then, of course, the heat returned! Sigh.......
Quoting 587. sar2401:

I'd like to see a video of the actual battle at Wake Island in 1941. Talk about scared. One major, 450 Marines, four Wildcat fighters, and six 5" guns taking on the entire Imperial Japanese Empire. I don't think I could ever be that brave.


This is true. Guadalcanal as well. Fearless, we were. What happened?
Quoting 587. sar2401:

I'd like to see a video of the actual battle at Wake Island in 1941. Talk about scared. One major, 450 Marines, four Wildcat fighters, and six 5" guns taking on the entire Imperial Japanese Empire. I don't think I could ever be that brave.


Gro took pictures when he was there.
596. SLU
It's painstaking seeing the Atlantic disintegrate like this right before our eyes in the last couple of years.

597. JRRP
Stronger and a more north

and behind 90L a big storm...
may be a new yellow color tomorrow
Here it is Sar. The address has no resemblance to cayman gov.
Quoting sar2401:
I'd like to see a video of the actual battle at Wake Island in 1941. Talk about scared. One major, 450 Marines, four Wildcat fighters, and six 5" guns taking on the entire Imperial Japanese Empire. I don't think I could ever be that brave.

The closest thing I can find with regards to Wake Islands in 41

Link
601. SLU
Quoting 588. JLPR2:

It is worth mentioning 90L is self sustainable, you can see the ITCZ/Monsson trof to the south of it. I don't think we have seen a TW manage that that far east so far this year.



*Edit*
Monsoon trof is visible to the SW of 90L.



Even then it's still going to be a long, hard slog for 90L. Systems with that kind of structure near the Cape Verdes usually struggle to develop until much further west. The Euro continues to kill in 3 days but the GFS is very aggressive after 72hrs as usual. A compromise between the GFS and Euro seems most plausible which would a TD or very weak TS with a struggling circulation due to dry air intrusion at absolute best near 15n, 50w by Tuesday.
Quoting 597. JRRP:

Stronger and a more north

and behind 90L a big storm...
may be a new yellow color tomorrow


Looks like a lot of recurves ahead according to the GFS
Quoting DonnieBwkGA:
Here it is Sar. The address has no resemblance to cayman gov.


Why are we still on this topic
There is no Cayman.gov
There is only www.gov.ky
And there is www.caymanlandinfo.ky
But the actual information that is needed you would have to buy a copy down here
FDR was the President and Commander in Chief during World War II tramp96.
90L near Bermuda. 252 hours, we'll see. But that big cool outbreak a week from now implies a strong trough over the eastern USA.

90L nears Newfoundland.

384 hours shows the next system near Bermuda as well.

New GFS shows our SW Carib AOI becoming a TS and landfalling in Belize/Yucatan then into Mexico S of where Dolly made landfall
Newly found asteroid to pass close to Earth on Sunday
By Amanda Barnett, CNN
updated 3:09 PM EDT, Thu September 4, 2014 | Filed under: Innovations
This graphic shows the path Asteroid 2014 RC will take as it passes Earth on Sunday, September 7. The space rock will come within one-tenth the distance from Earth to the moon, but it is not expected to threaten the planet. This graphic shows the path Asteroid 2014 RC will take as it passes Earth on Sunday, September 7. The space rock will come within one-tenth the distance from Earth to the moon, but it is not expected to threaten the planet.
HIDE CAPTION
All about asteroids
<<



90L nears Newfoundland and hurricane will be invest 91L
384 hours shows the next system near Bermuda as well to far out!!

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1242 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2014

POSSIBLE WEAK LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM...12Z ECMWF...12Z UKMET
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

ALL OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS HELD DECENT CONTINUITY FROM
24 HOURS AGO WITH THIS FEATURE BUT THE 00Z GFS AND 18Z GEFS MEAN
ARE WEAKEST. A BLEND OF THE 21Z SREF MEAN AND 12Z EC MEAN SUPPORT
SOMETHING CLOSE TO THAT OF THE 00Z NAM...12Z ECMWF AND 12Z UKMET.
12:17 AM EDT Friday 05 September 2014
Heat Warning in effect for:
•City of Toronto

A hot and humid airmass is expected to affect portions of southwestern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe today. Humidex values near 40 are forecast for this afternoon. A cold front will sweep across the area this evening bringing a return to near seasonal temperatures for the weekend.

While extreme heat can put everyone at risk from heat illnesses, health risks are greatest for
- older adults
- infants and young children
- people with chronic illnesses such as breathing difficulties, heart conditions or psychiatric illnesses
- people who work in the heat
- people who exercise in the heat
- people without access to air conditioning and
- homeless people.

Drink plenty of liquids especially water before you feel thirsty to decrease your risk of dehydration. Thirst is not a good indicator of dehydration.

Environment Canada meteorologists will update alerts as required, so stay tuned to your local media or Weatheradio. Email reports of severe weather to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet with the hashtag #ONStorm.
Quoting 592. unknowncomic:

This is some ridge. Euro @240hrs.

big ridge in the northeast again!
Quoting 603. wunderkidcayman:



Why are we still on this topic
There is no Cayman.gov
There is only www.gov.ky
And there is www.caymanlandinfo.ky
But the actual information that is needed you would have to buy a copy down here


"The domain name gov is a sponsored top-level domain in the Domain Name System of the Internet. The name is derived from government, indicating its restricted use by government entities in the United States."
Quoting 600. tramp96:


Liberals


I don't get it, but I hope your evening is going as great as mine. Thanks for the input.


u see invest 90L and maybe invest 91L soon
VERY heavy rain on the roof.

Strong mid-September cold front on the GFS 00z.

Quoting 619. Drakoen:

Strong mid-September cold front on the GFS 00z.




Hey Drak. Got anything on that:



Not tooo impressive aside from the convection it's been firing, but it's there and closer to impacting something than anything else in the atl.

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Is it me or this thing is moving north? Hmmm.
Quoting 620. wunderkidcayman:



Looks like it's moving nne. :p
Quoting 596. SLU:

It's painstaking seeing the Atlantic disintegrate like this right before our eyes in the last couple of years.


The Atlantic is not disintegrating. The Tropical Waves that are moving off the African Coast are disintegrating.
Oh Norbert!



Why you no in the Atlantic?




Anyone know how to insert a fart noise mp3?
Quoting 619. Drakoen:

Strong mid-September cold front on the GFS 00z.


TO FAR OUT!!
Quoting 618. DonnieBwkGA:

VERY heavy rain on the roof.


With another band behind it. Looks like nice sleeping weather. As they say in South Georgia...mazel-tov!
Quoting 621. GatorWX:



Hey Drak. Got anything on that:




Too much shear in the region. Convection being supported by the speed of divergence aloft.
630. flsky
Well, most of it.
Quoting 604. DonnieBwkGA:

FDR was the President and Commander in Chief during World War II tramp96.
Quoting 574. JRRP:



The GFS don't see develop until Monday
How isn't dry air going to kill it? models supposedly moisture is going to go down after three days.
Quoting 539. ProgressivePulse:

.DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
GENERATED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ON THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 16N WEST OF 77W.


This looks better than Bertha ever did in terms of convection.


invest 9OL maybe moving wsw for a day
Quoting 628. Drakoen:



Too much shear in the region. Convection being supported by the speed of divergence aloft.


What is it? Just upper divergence? I know shear is high. Persistence in convection is surprising. Seems more like a lower level entity.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI SEP 5 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, located
just south of the Cape Verde Islands is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is
possible over the next several days while it moves westward at about
15 mph. This system could bring locally heavy rain and gusty winds
in squalls to portions of the Cape Verde Islands today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

invest 90L
Then again.



I usually speak before I do my homework.



Simple, yes. I love CIMSS though. They make it just that.
I wish I was educated more about this stuff. I hate being young. Some day I'll know. For now, I know cooking which brings me back to the fart noise. I love it though, actually. Have a great night y'all. Time to take little blind Buster on a late night walking adventure.

kman, how were the quake(s)? Shake you around or what? ....if you're still on.
Just did my 83rd blog update of the 2014 Atlantic season which mentions four areas of interest (Invest 90-L...another tropical wave over interior western Africa...the activity in the southern Caribbean...and the potential for development offshore of the Carolinas from a frontal boundary). Of these four areas...the one I favor the most is the tropical wave over interior western Africa...especially if 90-L can help reduce the dry Saharan air layer before this wave arrives into the Atlantic.
Quoting 638. NCHurricane2009:

Just did my 83rd blog update of the 2014 Atlantic season which mentions four areas of interest (Invest 90-L...another tropical wave over interior western Africa...the activity in the southern Caribbean...and the potential for development offshore of the Carolinas from a frontal boundary). Of these four areas...the one I favor the most is the tropical wave over interior western Africa...especially if 90-L can help reduce the dry Saharan air layer before this wave arrives into the Atlantic.


i saw your new blog!! i like your new blog..
Quoting 638. NCHurricane2009:

Just did my 83rd blog update of the 2014 Atlantic season which mentions four areas of interest (Invest 90-L...another tropical wave over interior western Africa...the activity in the southern Caribbean...and the potential for development offshore of the Carolinas from a frontal boundary). Of these four areas...the one I favor the most is the tropical wave over interior western Africa...especially if 90-L can help reduce the dry Saharan air layer before this wave arrives into the Atlantic.


Good blog and illustration. I'm out. Night



invest 90L LOST all its rain this morning!!
644. MahFL
Quoting 643. hurricanes2018:



invest 90L LOST all its rain this morning!!


It's convection, not rain. You can still have convection but no rain at the surface.
gfs now keeps ninety at least a td for the duration
right now gov. scott is a shoe in for governor of florida. things could change if florida takes a major hurricane hit. he is the guy to side with insurance companies. policy holders now need to pay their deductible before any money is allocated. most policy holders do not know of this change
The GFS 8 days ago was predicting what was in the Caribbean, except then it was far enough North to cross the Yucatan, get into the BoC, and possibly affect as far North as Deep South Texas beyond the 192 resolution chop. The GFS has been slowly trending South, so that once that moves inland, it never emerges again in the Atlantic Basin. Maybe it'll try to be something in the East Pac.



ETA: The FIM was supporting the GFS on this last week...
Quoting 646. islander101010:

right now gov. scott is a shoe in for governor of florida. things could change if florida takes a major hurricane hit. he is the guy to side with insurance companies. policy holders now need to pay their deductible before any money is allocated. most policy holders do not know of this change


What change are you referring to?
invest 90L NO convection right now the % will go down soon.
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM 18N22W TO THE
LOW NEAR 14N23W TO 07N23W...MOVING WEST AT 10-15 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST ENVIRONMENT
MAINLY N OF THE LOW FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 18W-26W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 23W-27W...COINCIDING
WITH A REGION OF DEEP LAYER HIGH MOISTURE.
Norbert looks Cat 2 ish this morning.

lots of rain off the east coast this morning
A Incredibly cold airmass for September 13th. Frost and Freezes coming for a good chunk of the northern US and NO NEA this is NOT normal.



20 degrees below average.

Canadian is similar but a little further west.



ROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 5 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
producing disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms near and south
of the Cape Verde Islands. Some slow development of this system is
possible over the next several days while it moves westward at about
15 mph. This system could still bring locally heavy rain and gusty
winds in squalls to portions of the Cape Verde Islands today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
We just might get a moderate to strong El-Nino afterall. Very impressive warm pool and much larger than the first warm pool although the first warm pool was a little stronger.



Quoting 656. hurricanes2018:

ROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 5 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
producing disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms near and south
of the Cape Verde Islands. Some slow development of this system is
possible over the next several days while it moves westward at about
15 mph. This system could still bring locally heavy rain and gusty
winds in squalls to portions of the Cape Verde Islands today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$


Peak of hurricane season and that is the only game in town. Yawn.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
We just might get a moderate to strong El-Nino afterall. Very impressive warm pool and much larger than the first warm pool although the first warm pool was a little stronger.




Low-end moderate is probably the best we will manage, if that.
Ok, what is it with the national weather service out of Melbourne Fl. 2 hours ago they had 60% chance of storms across the board for the next seven days in Orlando now they have it 60% to 30% to 50% are they throwing darts?
Quoting 659. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Low-end moderate is probably the best we will manage, if that.


Well here's the thing if we don't get a decent El-Nino and it stays weak to a low end moderate then you can kiss the 2015 hurricane season good by. The reason is we need a moderate to strong El-Nino to push us back to neutral or La-Nina come late next summer because if it stays weak then we will likely realize a 2 year El-Nino and infact look at the CFS ensembles on how many spike very high come next spring. It is possible that 2015 hurricane season could end up being slower than 2014 if El-Nino stays weak and waits for a stronger El-Nino to materialize next summer.



Quoting 660. hurricanewatcher61:

Ok, what is it with the national weather service out of Melbourne Fl. 2 hours ago they had 60% chance of storms across the board for the next seven days in Orlando now they have it 60% to 30% to 50% are they throwing darts?
All these mets go by now days are computer models.I always said you can train a 12 yr old to do the same.
Quoting 660. hurricanewatcher61:

Ok, what is it with the national weather service out of Melbourne Fl. 2 hours ago they had 60% chance of storms across the board for the next seven days in Orlando now they have it 60% to 30% to 50% are they throwing darts?


I have 60% rain chances across the board thru this weekend then down to 30% next Wednesday.

Today looks active though.



osted at 6:10 AM

Showers and storms over the Atlantic; Isolated convective development near the east coast into mid day
Scattered showers and lightning storms will continue over the Atlantic waters into mid morning mainly beyond 10 nautical miles from shore.

Deep moisture and daytime heating along with the developing east coast sea breeze boundary will allow isolated showers and lightning storms to develop along the coastal counties by mid day. Locally heavy rain, gusty winds and lightning will be the main thunderstorm hazards.

See our graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook for more information on weather hazards today.
90L has lost some convection, but at 4:45 AM EDT, it still had some. It isn't a convectionless swirl.

Hot off the wire, (7:45 AM EDT) still has some convection...
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?& basin=atlantic&sname=90L&invest=YES&zoom=4&img=1&v ars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0
biggest insurance change i see so far is a 500$ a yr increase over last. considering this area cocoa bch has in known history has never seen a major hurricane landfaller this increase is excessive
Good Morning

Rain for the Southeast..
I agree with that!
Quoting victoria780:
All these mets go by now days are computer models.I always said you can train a 12 yr old to do the same.
When I here of the name Norbert,I think of police squad.
Feeling better about no catastrophic hurricane on the east coast of Florida this year. The 1947 Fort Lauderdale Cat 4 hurricane comes to mind though. It was supposed to recurve in the Bahamas , but got blocked.
I guess the system to our east is going to help pull moisture from the SW across Central Florida?
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I have 60% rain chances across the board thru this weekend then down to 30% next Wednesday.

Today looks active though.



osted at 6:10 AM

Showers and storms over the Atlantic; Isolated convective development near the east coast into mid day
Scattered showers and lightning storms will continue over the Atlantic waters into mid morning mainly beyond 10 nautical miles from shore.

Deep moisture and daytime heating along with the developing east coast sea breeze boundary will allow isolated showers and lightning storms to develop along the coastal counties by mid day. Locally heavy rain, gusty winds and lightning will be the main thunderstorm hazards.

See our graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook for more information on weather hazards today.
76F w/ a 75F dewpoint has IAH this morning. That should bode well for afternoon storms, but 0Z LCH and CRP soundings only 1.8 inch PW, and NWS HGX has a 30% chance of storms with afternoon heating, which, translated for my lawn, is a 10% chance of meaningful rain.
Quoting 670. hurricanewatcher61:

I guess the system to our east is going to help pull moisture from the SW across Central Florida?


Correct thunderstorms forecast to focus across the Orlando Metro up towards Daytona today as there is going to be a SSW flow in place today. What this will do is cause seabreezes to collide over the interior and migrate back toward the east coast from Melbourne north.

Quoting 59. DonnieBwkGA:

An article by Reuters about rising sea levels. Pretty good!
I have to sat this. The new WU webpage is not working. I wish they never upgraded it. Long scripts warning and freezing not only my computer at home, but the one at work as well. Its too graphic intensive and I guess you would need a super gaming computer to make the site work as intended. As a matter of fact most of the typos you see on mine and many other postings is because of the lag which is affecting typing with missing letters even when you press the keyboard.
The current enso state is very tricky right now as 5 years of no El-Nino has caused a tremendous amount of heat to build up across the W-Pac and at some point that heat will have to be dispersed hopefully it can happen in shot and then get us back to a more normal hurricane season next year. If not then warm pools will continue to build and migrate east across the equatorial Pacific until we can get that heat dispersed somewhat.
676. Ninj4
Are these highs or lows?
Quoting 654. StormTrackerScott:

A Incredibly cold airmass for September 13th. Frost and Freezes coming for a good chunk of the northern US and NO NEA this is NOT normal.



20 degrees below average.



Got it, Looks like a stormy afternoon for sure than.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Correct thunderstorms forecast to focus across the Orlando Metro up towards Daytona today as there is going to be a SSW flow in place today. What this will do is cause seabreezes to collide over the interior and migrate back toward the east coast from Melbourne north.

Quoting 676. Ninj4:

Are these highs or lows?




Lows.
679. SLU
Quoting 657. StormTrackerScott:

We just might get a moderate to strong El-Nino afterall. Very impressive warm pool and much larger than the first warm pool although the first warm pool was a little stronger.






Sigh,

I really hate El Nino because it jacks up my weather real bad with high temperatures and frustratingly dry weather but i'm willing to exchange that for a more interesting season next year.
Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 43m

W Carib area likely next PACIFIC storm after moving thru Cent America. Whats pulsing off FLa coast more interest to me
Quoting 679. SLU:



Sigh,

I really hate El Nino because it jacks up my weather real bad with high temperatures and frustratingly dry weather but i'm willing to exchange that for a more interesting season next year.



I agree, its frustrating I really thought we would have had a reall decent if not strong El-Nino to get us back to a active hurricane season next year but by looking at the long range CFS I am starting to have real concerns about next years hurricane season as well.
682. MahFL
Quoting 666. ncstorm:

Good Morning

Rain for the Southeast..



Most of it is offshore. Here in Orange Park we have had daily forecasts of rain but got nothing in like 6 days. The grass is starting to brown up some.
Insurance companies don't operate as charities, and have to cover risk and provide some rate of return to the stockholders.

Hurricane Celia in 1970 produced a max sustained 125 mph and a 161 mph gust at the Corpus Christi airport/NWS. Insurers took a bath, and were not writing new policies for coastal Texas until the state formed TWIA, an insurer of last resort. Now, if companies want to write policies anywhere in Texas, they have to pool their risk through TWIA and write policies.

I remember all the post-Ike commercials for a leech named Mostyn, wanting people to sue TWIA and other insurers over flood damage, which is not covered by windstorm policies, insisting their homes blew away before the water got to them. Pure BS, all the heavy damage was in the surge zone.

Major hurricanes which strike population centers in Texas are extremely rare. Bret was a major, but hit the least populated county on the Eastern Seaboard 16 years ago, 1983 was, IIRC, the last major to hit a population area. But if you live in an area where the once a lifetime storm destroys the house, the premiums will pretty much pay for that house over that lifetime.

Or people in coastal hurricane magnet Florida are going to pay high premiums. Price they pay for (usually) abundant rain, and avoiding the cold Winters Texas is known for. (Snowed an inch here in 2009, last Winter, two freezing rain events and a couple of hard freezes, although thank goodness the special citrus varieties bred to survive our harsh Winters made it). 19F in Houston December, 1989, Florida will never experience that (outside the Panhandle), you have to pay to live in paradise.
Quoting CaneHunter031472:
I have to sat this. The new WU webpage is not working. I wish they never upgraded it. Long scripts warning and freezing not only my computer at home, but the one at work as well. Its too graphic intensive and I guess you would need a super gaming computer to make the site work as intended. As a matter of fact most of the typos you see on mine and many other postings is because of the lag which is affecting typing with missing letters even when you press the keyboard.


I don't use it for the same reason. I have a brand new I5 quad core 64 bit windows 7 with 64 Gigabits of ram (64 bit os) with two Raptor solid state drives and it still locks my system up. Top of the line internet (for my area). It's defiantly not my system. There is something fundamentally incorrect with their new code or there is a lot going on that we don't see. This is instant for me.

http://classic.wunderground
Charleston SC NWS discussion last pm...

The blob of convection off east coast Florida/Georgia bears watching this weekend

Short term /6 am Friday morning through Sunday/...
a broad trough off the east Florida coast may slowly become more
organized and form a closed low as it drifts north-northwest Friday into
Saturday. The models are quite uncertain about this feature and its
eventual track and strength. Regardless...it seems quite certain
that deep tropical moisture will continue to stream into the area
from the south and southeast. Precipitable waters are predicted to remain above 2
inches through Sunday. On Friday...the best convergence will be over
the waters in the morning...then with a robust sea breeze we should
see scattered showers and thunderstorms over land in the afternoon.

As the trough/low drifts closer to the area Saturday into Sunday we
expect increasing moisture and convergence to result in better
coverage of showers and thunderstorms. The greatest coverage should remain
over the waters but by Sunday when the cold front drops south and
the low becomes part of the baroclinic zone...plenty of lift should
be present for numerous showers and thunderstorms. Because of the
approaching cold front...NHC/wpc believe the low would probably not
become tropical...though if the front slows down there could be some
sort of sub-tropical hybrid off our coast late in the weekend.
Quoting 665. islander101010:

biggest insurance change i see so far is a 500$ a yr increase over last. considering this area cocoa bch has in known history has never seen a major hurricane landfaller this increase is excessive


You had stated something about a deductible change, I was just curious. As far as a $500 increase, are talking wind, flood, homeowners, combined, what? Loss of wind credits maybe? Seems odd. I live in the Keys and there has been no increase in any of the policies.
688. FOREX
Quoting 684. ncstorm:


If this is supposedly moving west, it sure is not in any hurry doing so.
Quoting 684. ncstorm:


That is some storm off the Nicaraguan coast.I wonder if there is a possibility of it to to turn into a tropical depression?
Mayor declares emergency, geologists issue warning as lava flows near Hawaii community

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2014/09/05/mayor-declar es-emergency-geologists-issue-warning-as-lava-flow s-near-hawaii/?intcmp=trending&intcmp=latestnews

I find it fascinating that the ENTIRE state of HI is in a lava zone. 1-9 I think one day the whole culdier under HI may go. Never been there but seen many pictures. I guess living in paradise has problems too. Is a volcano weather?
691. MahFL
Quoting 689. rmbjoe1954:



That is some storm off the Nicaraguan coast.I wonder if there is a possibility of it to to turn into a tropical depression?


30 to 40 kt's of shear means no chance.
Nice Vorticity still with 90L.

Looks like November..And another right behind it.


Quoting 672. StormTrackerScott:



Correct thunderstorms forecast to focus across the Orlando Metro up towards Daytona today as there is going to be a SSW flow in place today. What this will do is cause seabreezes to collide over the interior and migrate back toward the east coast from Melbourne north.




What happened to the widespread torrential rains yesterday?
I see JB and his crew at weatherbell on the same page as I am with 2002/2003 as my winter analog.

SST ANALOG GOES TO WEATHERBELL.COM ANALOG YEARS!
September 5 08:18 AM

The current forecast from the SST analogs go right to the blend of years we have. Keep in mind the package is developed via independent consensus method where the weatherbell.com forecasters use their methodology to come up with their top 5 analogs. The theory is that each of us have our strong points and weak points, but if we can come up with years where commonality is seen, then we have a good idea. I then use a 5 to 1 weighting, the number analog gets 5 points, the number 5 1.. If multiple years tie , then they get put in there.
As of the last meeting of the minds ( if you allow that I have one that works) 2009 was number 1, 1976 was 2 and 2002 was 3rd.
With D Aleo having an amazing "gold book" of analogs ( We would let you see it, but only the chosen few have ever set eyes on it) The most amazing thing about all this is how close the new SST analog 500 mb looks to the blend of our top analogs Here is the 500 we come up with ( from the winter forecast, and this has been out since April

I favor as much or more of NW N america block given the intensity of the warm water, but the point is modeling continues to move toward our "preconceived notions"


Enjoy it, as there will be a flip in the coming few years, and a series of non winters is likely to develop for Winter weather lovers in the east and south.. but we dont think this winter.. in fact quite the opposite
Quoting 692. unknowncomic:

Nice Vorticity still with 90L.


Yep..Almost all of them.
Too early to say 90L will go OTS. Some of the "gray lines" turn it back westbound.

Quoting 694. luvtogolf:



What happened to the widespread torrential rains yesterday?


We did have widespread rains yesterday across the Orlando area infact Downtown Orlando had 1.55", .38" here in Longwood, Rock Springs 2.70", Apopka .86", and .30 at Orlando International.
Quoting 689. rmbjoe1954:



That is some storm off the Nicaraguan coast.I wonder if there is a possibility of it to to turn into a tropical depression?
If that shear to the north lets up, we may have more than a depression.
Quoting 690. Autistic2:

Mayor declares emergency, geologists issue warning as lava flows near Hawaii community

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2014/09/05/mayor-declar es-emergency-geologists-issue-warning-as-lava-flow s-near-hawaii/?intcmp=trending&intcmp=latestne ws

I find it fascinating that the ENTIRE state of HI is in a lava zone. 1-9 I think one day the whole culdier under HI may go. Never been there but seen many pictures. I guess living in paradise has problems too. Is a volcano weather?


I believe the plate is drifting NW in relation to the hot spot/mantle plume, so the farther Northwest, the lower the volcanic risk. I believe Oahu's only risk would be a sub-sea volcanic eruption/undersea slide closer to the Big Island producing a tsunami. Now, the farther from the hot spot, the longer the ocean has been eroding the islands, the Big Island, and an undersea island that hasn't broke the ocean surface yet, are the only islands still growing. The rest are shrinking.

Quoting 698. StormTrackerScott:



We did have widespread rains yesterday across the Orlando area infact Downtown Orlando had 1.55", .38" here in Longwood, Rock Springs 2.70", Apopka .86", and .30 at Orlando International.


Typical Florida afternoon. Nothing torrential about that.
Quoting 683. EdMahmoud:

Insurance companies don't operate as charities, and have to cover risk and provide some rate of return to the stockholders.

Hurricane Celia in 1970 produced a max sustained 125 mph and a 161 mph gust at the Corpus Christi airport/NWS. Insurers took a bath, and were not writing new policies for coastal Texas until the state formed TWIA, an insurer of last resort. Now, if companies want to write policies anywhere in Texas, they have to pool their risk through TWIA and write policies.

I remember all the post-Ike commercials for a leech named Mostyn, wanting people to sue TWIA and other insurers over flood damage, which is not covered by windstorm policies, insisting their homes blew away before the water got to them. Pure BS, all the heavy damage was in the surge zone.

Major hurricanes which strike population centers in Texas are extremely rare. Bret was a major, but hit the least populated county on the Eastern Seaboard 16 years ago, 1983 was, IIRC, the last major to hit a population area. But if you live in an area where the once a lifetime storm destroys the house, the premiums will pretty much pay for that house over that lifetime.

Or people in coastal hurricane magnet Florida are going to pay high premiums. Price they pay for (usually) abundant rain, and avoiding the cold Winters Texas is known for. (Snowed an inch here in 2009, last Winter, two freezing rain events and a couple of hard freezes, although thank goodness the special citrus varieties bred to survive our harsh Winters made it). 19F in Houston December, 1989, Florida will never experience that (outside the Panhandle), you have to pay to live in paradise.




Had lows in the high teens in 2010 in Brooksville Fl (West Central Florida), I remember opening up at the golf course I work at it was 16 Deg and was sleeting at 7:00am, flurries at 8:00am.
Quoting 702. robintampabay:



Had lows in the high teens in 2010 in Brooksville Fl (West Central Florida), I remember opening up at the golf course I work at it was 16 Deg and was sleeting at 7:00am, flurries at 8:00am.


Could have a similar winter this year with El-Nino in the mix.
Quoting 694. luvtogolf:



What happened to the widespread torrential rains yesterday?

Are you serious? Where do you live?
Quoting rmbjoe1954:


That is some storm off the Nicaraguan coast.I wonder if there is a possibility of it to to turn into a tropical depression?

Right now it's got 10-30kts shear however shear is falling as a upper level anticyclone is forming

GFS says this will be a TS in the W Carib make landfall near Belize/Yucatan weaken reform in the EPac then EPac storm makes landfall and reforms back on the other side in the BOC
Via 06Z run
Quoting 691. MahFL:



30 to 40 kt's of shear means no chance.


No chance in the Atlantic Basin. This is the beginning of last week's GFS Gulf system, which trended South with the runs. It survives Central America, which is probably will, it'll be an EPAC invest by early next week.
Quoting 705. fmbill:


Are you serious? Where do you live?


I think he lives by Tampa but there was rain over most of the Orlando area yesterday. Today should be more of the same if not more areas seeing high rainfall totals.
Infact, Accuweather thinks there could be some snow even in Florida this winter as well given the pattern that is forecast to be in place.



invest 90L WILL never get this far in the frist place dry air and wind shear will kill it all together



Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 18 Comments: 38064

Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 18 Comments: 38164
Quoting unknowncomic:
Too early to say 90L will go OTS. Some of the "gray lines" turn it back westbound.



I've notice that there are more grey lines moving Westbound that pervious runs
Now it's turning into Bahamas and even into the Caribbean
At first there was none going that way then one then two then three
It's like its on a slow trend turning W
Quoting EdMahmoud:


No chance in the Atlantic Basin. This is the beginning of last week's GFS Gulf system, which trended South with the runs. It survives Central America, which is probably will, it'll be an EPAC invest by early next week.

Read 706.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Infact, Accuweather thinks there could be some snow even in Florida this winter as well given the pattern that is forecast to be in place.


So we indeed are looking at wet and colder weather for the SE US for winter right?
Quoting 716. wunderkidcayman:


Read 706.


Yu think maybe I was typing 707 as you were typing 706, and thus didn't either copy or ignore your post?
Quoting 700. EdMahmoud:



I believe the plate is drifting NW in relation to the hot spot/mantle plume, so the farther Northwest, the lower the volcanic risk. I believe Oahu's only risk would be a sub-sea volcanic eruption/undersea slide closer to the Big Island producing a tsunami. Now, the farther from the hot spot, the longer the ocean has been eroding the islands, the Big Island, and an undersea island that hasn't broke the ocean surface yet, are the only islands still growing. The rest are shrinking.




Come up with all by your self did you?
Sulfurous greetings from Europe this morning ;-)



Bardarbunga plume
ESA, Released 05/09/2014 10:01 am
A plume of sulphur dioxide was detected drifting towards Europe from Iceland%u2019s Bardarbunga volcano late on 4 September 2014. These images are based on data from the Spinning Enhanced Visible & InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI) on the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) mission. ...

And to boot: Two new fissures, closer to the glacier, opened up last night:

Old fissure left, new ones right.


Sat pic from today.

Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection 5. September
September 5, 2014 1:30 pm
It's trending S & W. The S is going to be a frozen tundra this winter.

This has been your AM blog update for those that haven't followed along the past three months. ;-)
Quoting EdMahmoud:


Yu think maybe I was typing 707 as you were typing 706, and thus didn't either copy or ignore your post?

Yeah ok
Quoting 719. ArkWeather:



Come up with all by your self did you?


Did I claim to have come up with this by myself? I was answering a question about volcanic risk in the entire state of Hawai'i. What I posted is common knowledge, I didn't think I needed to look up references to cite.

Jeesh...
Very little chance of any significant development.

Quoting 710. StormTrackerScott:

Infact, Accuweather thinks there could be some snow even in Florida this winter as well given the pattern that is forecast to be in place.




That's pretty much what an El Nino Winter looks like on average - just maybe a little further north of typical.
Quoting 725. EdMahmoud:



Did I claim to have come up with this by myself? I was answering a question about volcanic risk in the entire state of Hawai'i. What I posted is common knowledge, I didn't think I needed to look up references to cite.

Jeesh...


You stated it as if it was your own original ideal.
Quoting 710. StormTrackerScott:

Infact, Accuweather thinks there could be some snow even in Florida this winter as well given the pattern that is forecast to be in place.




Of course they do.
Quoting 726. Grothar:




We just might get something to develop off of the SE coast within the next week.
Quoting 725. EdMahmoud:



Did I claim to have come up with this by myself? I was answering a question about volcanic risk in the entire state of Hawai'i. What I posted is common knowledge, I didn't think I needed to look up references to cite.

Jeesh...


Link, please :)


this a tropical wave to watch here on land!!! invest 90L DOING NOTTING AT ALL.
Accuweather thinks there could be some snow even in Florida this winter as well given the pattern that is forecast to be in place. SOUND LIKE A BIG JOKE TO ME..
Quoting 732. jrweatherman:



We just might get something to develop off of the SE coast within the next week.


Not seeing it as real likely ATM, but not entirely impossible. Weak west winds just off the GA coast. Weak S easterly winds just to the N of the Carolina coast. Pressures are pretty high and climbing though.

If anything tries to develop it will be slow...And would have to find a way to stay off shore. Going with pretty unlikely at this point. Will still be watching none the less cause it seems more entertaining than watching an invest before it gets to 35W.
Hurricane Fran 1996


I'll stop assuming people in Arkansas have heard of plate tectonics and mantle plume hotspots.

My bad.
Good morning, what do you guys think of the showers near venezuela ? Any change of development?
TROPICAL WAVES OVER THE ATLANTIC BASIN APPEAR BENIGN AS ANOTHER STRONG WAVE OVER AFRICA SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL

The Tropical waves we had been tracking a couple days back continue to move westward, with 3 of them now over the CARIB and the large wave now over the central Atlantic. However, very high wind shear over most of the CARIB is preventing any development of these disturbances, while stable air, partially related to the SAL, has diminished along with most all shower activity that had been accompanying the large scale wave over the central ATL. However, moisture as shown in the total precipitable water graphic clearly identifies the location and size of this once large and strong wave.

Aside from INVEST 90L off the African coast, there are 2 other significant Tropical Waves over the interior of Africa. The one in central Africa appears to be the most well developed, and is forecast by the GFS to reach the African coast in 3-4 days, and is also predicted to show some development as it moves westward over the eastern Atlantic later next week.
Quoting 735. hurricanes2018:



this a tropical wave to watch here on land!!! invest 90L DOING NOTTING AT ALL.


TROPICAL WAVES OVER THE ATLANTIC BASIN APPEAR BENIGN AS ANOTHER STRONG WAVE OVER AFRICA SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL

The Tropical waves we had been tracking a couple days back continue to move westward, with 3 of them now over the CARIB and the large wave now over the central Atlantic. However, very high wind shear over most of the CARIB is preventing any development of these disturbances, while stable air, partially related to the SAL, has diminished along with most all shower activity that had been accompanying the large scale wave over the central ATL. However, moisture as shown in the total precipitable water graphic clearly identifies the location and size of this once large and strong wave.

Aside from INVEST 90L off the African coast, there are 2 other significant Tropical Waves over the interior of Africa. The one in central Africa appears to be the most well developed, and is forecast by the GFS to reach the African coast in 3-4 days, and is also predicted to show some development as it moves westward over the eastern Atlantic later next week.
Quoting Grothar:
Very little chance of any significant development.



This ain't significant enough




Quoting zawxdsk:


That's pretty much what an El Nino Winter looks like on average - just maybe a little further north of typical.


Hmm I wonder where Scott's comment went

Anyway I'm happy to hear this

Quoting hurricanes2018:


this a tropical wave to watch here on land!!! invest 90L DOING NOTTING AT ALL.


Oh will you stop that
Every tropical wave that you say to watch with convection over land most of them go down to nothing by the times it's fully over water

Just mention that this is a new one you go and watch it when it gets into the water and convection is still there you can scream all the bells and whistle you want at that time we will certainly join in

But I do have to admit this one is the one I think GFS had shown as the second CV storm behind 90L
90L has really packed a punch into the dry air that was ahead of it. Should make things more favouable for the wave behind and I think we will get development of that wave. Not sure about 90L yet, but it's certainly putting up a fight and not fizzling out like previous waves.

Quoting 738. Grothar:


well we got the short track nailed down now if only at the end of the run could figure it out we might know something
Quoting mysticloud:
Good morning, what do you guys think of the showers near venezuela ? Any change of development?

I don't see anything near Venezuela but NW of Colombia and E of Honduras and Nicaragua that AOI I see that GFS has been showing this become a TS in a few days

It's been showing this from when Dolly was around
Quoting hurricanes2018:
Accuweather thinks there could be some snow even in Florida this winter as well given the pattern that is forecast to be in place. SOUND LIKE A BIG JOKE TO ME..

If an El Niño can set into place for winter yes it's very likely we may just see that
Quoting Llamaluvr:
Anyone?

Great! Now I'm going to have that song stuck in my head all day. LOL!
Quoting 750. wunderkidcayman:


I don't see anything near Venezuela but NW of Colombia and E of Honduras and Nicaragua that AOI I see that GFS has been showing this become a TS in a few days

It's been showing this from when Dolly was around


GFS doesn't have it becoming a TS on the latest run. It develops an area of low pressure and it moves over central america and into the east pacific. Doubtful anything is going to become of it in the Atlantic considering most other models don't show anything or move the area into the east pacific and develop it there.
Quoting 725. EdMahmoud:



Did I claim to have come up with this by myself? I was answering a question about volcanic risk in the entire state of Hawai'i. What I posted is common knowledge, I didn't think I needed to look up references to cite.

Jeesh...


Rule of ethical concern: One always references another person's work, publication, graphics, even ideas. PERIOD. Emphasis on the period at the end of that declarative statement.
well we got the short track nailed down now if only at the end of the run could figure it out we might know something


i rhink the end run will need to know if she forms or not to be more accurate
Quoting Envoirment:


GFS doesn't have it becoming a TS on the latest run. It develops an area of low pressure and it moves over central america and into the east pacific. Doubtful anything is going to become of it in the Atlantic considering most other models don't show anything or move the area into the east pacific and develop it there.

Yes GFS has it becoming a TS landfalling it near Belize/Yucatan weakens reforms in the E Pac the E Pac storm develop and makes landfall reforms in the BOC and quickly strengthens as it heads towards Texas/Mexico area

And this is as of latest run 06Z
Quoting 756. wunderkidcayman:

Yes GFS has it becoming a TS landfalling it near Belize/Yucatan weakens reforms in the E Pac the E Pac storm develop and makes landfall reforms in the BOC and quickly strengthens as it heads towards Texas/Mexico area
Good morning. Did you see the lightning storm last night ? Did you get any rain ? East End received 5.15" from midnight until 3:30 am. Winds gusting to 44 mph.
I downloaded this app today and it is exceptional.
The enlarged breakout panels, at the the continuous timelines make this the ONLY weather app that folks should ever been.
Congratulations Wunderground!!
Moggsy (IQUEENSL512)
Quoting Envoirment:


GFS doesn't have it becoming a TS on the latest run. It develops an area of low pressure and it moves over central america and into the east pacific. Doubtful anything is going to become of it in the Atlantic considering most other models don't show anything or move the area into the east pacific and develop it there.

Anyway one thing I do know this will be giving us some much needed rain as well to the rest of the W Caribbean
Quoting 754. Pipejazz:



Rule of ethical concern: One always references another person's work, publication, graphics, even ideas. PERIOD. Emphasis on the period at the end of that declarative statement.


"Lighten up, Frances."

~ Sergeant Hulka, 1981
El Nino still on hold as the values are right around 0.0C. Was wondering what StormTrackerScott thought but it appears he is banned. We may not get an El Nino after all.

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good morning. Did you see the lightning storm last night ? Did you get any rain ? East End received 5.15" from midnight until 3:30 am. Winds gusting to 44 mph.

I did see a bit of it
Lucky you we didn't get much at all
It did get a bit windy though
Quoting 750. wunderkidcayman:


I don't see anything near Venezuela but NW of Colombia and E of Honduras and Nicaragua that AOI I see that GFS has been showing this become a TS in a few days

It's been showing this from when Dolly was around
Thanks for the response.
Quoting 754. Pipejazz:



Rule of ethical concern: One always references another person's work, publication, graphics, even ideas. PERIOD. Emphasis on the period at the end of that declarative statement.


Yeah in an academic paper, not on a weather blog...
Quoting 754. Pipejazz:



Rule of ethical concern: One always references another person's work, publication, graphics, even ideas. PERIOD. Emphasis on the period at the end of that declarative statement.

Says who? I need a reference for that claim.
Yes, that is pretty general knowledge. It's also why the surf breaks on Kauai and Oahu are better than Maui or the Big Island. The coral reefs on Oahu and Kauai are older and better suited for surfing.

As you go further northwest up the chain the islands start to become atolls (Midway). The land has eroded but coral remains and continues to grow.


Quoting 725. EdMahmoud:



Did I claim to have come up with this by myself? I was answering a question about volcanic risk in the entire state of Hawai'i. What I posted is common knowledge, I didn't think I needed to look up references to cite.

Jeesh...
Quoting StormWx:
El Nino still on hold as the values are right around 0.0C. Was wondering what StormTrackerScott thought but it appears he is banned. We may not get an El Nino after all.


I am impressed on what all niño regions are showing
Niño 1+2 is at it's lowest for months now at 0.5 may even go below 0.5
Niño 3 is still below 0.5 and currently near 0.2
Niño 3.4 is still hanging near 0.0 worthy to note that 3.4 has not reached 0.5 since July
Niño 4 still hanging below 0.5 currently near 0.3
Looks like Global Cooling to me....
Quoting 761. StormWx:

El Nino still on hold as the values are right around 0.0C. Was wondering what StormTrackerScott thought but it appears he is banned. We may not get an El Nino after all.




Well thankfully you got his back in posting on his behalf. We'll have to see what the 3.4 value is tomorrow to see if it is indeed confirmed.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Yeah in an academic paper, not on a weather blog...

It's still a good thing to practice and make into a habit

But on the flip side this is a blog not a school
Quoting 740. EdMahmoud:

I'll stop assuming people in Arkansas have heard of plate tectonics and mantle plume hotspots.

My bad.
I read and like your posts Ed, but do nut lump every human that resides in Arkansas as someone who may be submarginal on the subject of vulcanism or any other..In the end, it makes you look like a smart ass.



Morning all.
Quoting 761. StormWx:

El Nino still on hold as the values are right around 0.0C. Was wondering what StormTrackerScott thought but it appears he is banned. We may not get an El Nino after all.




"ENSO? Ha!" The initials of the first 6 words of your comment spell it.
That information that Ed shared is pretty common knowledge. Every schoolkid over 10 in Hawaii knows that information. Maybe a lot less common knowledge outside the islands, but that info is readily available as general knowledge on the internet and educational TV channels. Read a tourist pamphlet from Hawaii and that information will most likely be in there about how the islands were created.

I don't need to cite Copernicus' work every time I talk about the earth's orbit around the sun.

Although I do cite Grothar every time I discuss blobs.

Quoting 754. Pipejazz:



Rule of ethical concern: One always references another person's work, publication, graphics, even ideas. PERIOD. Emphasis on the period at the end of that declarative statement.
Quoting 738. Grothar:




Yikes. If this potential sub-tropical blob off FL/GA brings added moisture as it moves up the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic the environment besides some vertical shear should be warm and wet enough to allow some development if it were to aim at the SE coast. We're currently under a small high pressure system but it looks like it will be gone by the time 90L makes it way west so I'm still leaning on OTS.
Quoting 760. FBMinFL:



"Lighten up, Frances."

~ Sergeant Hulka, 1981


lol!

"Barnicke? He still owes me money."
Quoting 739. SFLWeatherman:

Hurricane Fran 1996





She taught me a valuable lesson for my childhood: don't forget to put your bicycle inside when you're done playing. Curse you Fran!
Long way to go....

Global Hawk on its way to 90L. Interesting to see if models change from the dropsonde data, should start either 18Z or 00Z cycle.


Quoting 769. GatorWX:



Well thankfully you got his back in posting on his behalf. We'll have to see what the 3.4 value is tomorrow to see if it is indeed confirmed.


I was banned? Didn't even know and if I was for what? Geesh !
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Long way to go....

Global Hawk on its way to 90L. Interesting to see if models change from the dropsonde data, should start either 18Z or 00Z cycle.




I need a link to that drone tracking
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I was banned? Didn't even know and if I was for what? Geesh !

Your comment was removed 710 and another comment 709
But it's back up now
Don't know what happened
Quoting 782. wunderkidcayman:


Your comment was removed 710 and another comment 709
But it's back up now
Don't know what happened


Weird. I guess my prediction of a slow season is even bothering the admins. What puzzles me is these waves coming off Africa are intense but the splash into the Atlantic and then go poof do to mid level dry air with humidity values hovering around 50%.
784. Mikla
Quoting 781. wunderkidcayman:



I need a link to that drone tracking


http://airbornescience.nasa.gov/tracker/
Interesting anyway. Local NAM has precip waters at 2.3" Double or Triple of Normal.

Easy for one to blame El-Nino on why the Atlantic is so hostile but I believe its much more than that. Even during the 70's and 80's we had more exciting storms to track even during the downward AMO.
Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA (SSSSD)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Fri, 05 Sep 7:39 am (PDT)
Most Recent Observation: Fri, 05 Sep 7:30 am PDT (PDT)
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
05 Sep 7:30 am PDT 64 39 40 G01 OK
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Weird. I guess my prediction of a slow season is even bothering the admins. What puzzles me is these waves coming off Africa are intense but the splash into the Atlantic and then go poof do to mid level dry air with humidity values hovering around 50%.

Lol
Yeah them wave not looking so good this year

I got a little angry at hurricanes2018 and told him off on going gun ho on just about every wave before it even came off the land called Africa
Every or almost every wave that came off went poof

Anyway I may have went a little too much on him

But yea wave this year don't seem to like water
nc, you look to get a drubbing. Me not so much. I need some.

Quoting 666. ncstorm:

Good Morning

Rain for the Southeast..

Shear should slow over SW Caribbean.

Quoting 786. StormTrackerScott:

Easy for one to blame El-Nino on why the Atlantic is so hostile but I believe its much more than that. Even during the 70's and 80's we had more exciting storms to track even during the downward AMO.


How is it easy to blame El Nino if we don't have one declared and may not for a few more months?
Quoting 789. wunderkidcayman:


Lol
Yeah them wave not looking so good this year

I got a little angry at hurricanes2018 and told him off on going gun ho on just about every wave before it even came off the land called Africa
Every or almost every wave that came off went poof

Anyway I may have went a little too much on him

But yea wave this year don't seem to like water


Most of them don't lol. It's a tough adjustment period, even the most well developed waves have issues when they exit Africa.


(Do I have to site this? Bc Ive just looked at enough satellite images to know) *kidding*
Quoting 793. luvtogolf:



How is it easy to blame El Nino if we don't have one declared and may not for a few more months?
may not at all this year
Quoting 773. GatorWX:



Morning all.


Gator
If you check the 14:30 UTC surface map , its got the Cape Verde low now moving NW rather than SW ( on this 02:00 map) Something change there ...?Pressure shown slightly risen

Link
Quoting 788. hydrus:
Looks about stationary. Brought some decent beneficial rain to East End, Grand Cayman.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 051433
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT FRI 05 SEPTEMBER 2014
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2014
TCPOD NUMBER.....14-097

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: THE GLOBAL HAWK NASA 872 MAY FLY A RESEARCH
MISSION INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH A TAKEOFF TIME FROM
KWAL OF 07/2300Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

$$
JWP


Quoting hydrus:
Shear should slow over SW Caribbean.


Yep
That's what's been forecasted
12Z NAM shows a low spinning through the Bahamas heading towards Florida.
Just one more variable to add to the situation off the eastcoast in a few days.

Well, you just might have....Quite a few new posts on his blog....maybe just a glitch in the server....

Quoting 789. wunderkidcayman:




I got a little angry at hurricanes2018 and told him off on going gun ho on just about every wave before it even came off the land called Africa

Anyway I may have went a little too much on him

Anyone have the latest ECMWF Norbert track forecast?
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Looks about stationary. Brought some decent beneficial rain to East End, Grand Cayman.






Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Anyone have the latest ECMWF Norbert track forecast?


Doesn't get close to SoCal, circles back out to sea per 00z ECMWF.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Easy for one to blame El-Nino on why the Atlantic is so hostile but I believe its much more than that. Even during the 70's and 80's we had more exciting storms to track even during the downward AMO.


How many times do we have to tell you? There is no El Nino, and we are far from one. "Geesh!"
Quoting 796. superpete:



Gator
If you check the 14:30 UTC surface map , its got the Cape Verde low now moving NW rather than SW ( on this 02:00 map) Something change there ...?Pressure shown slightly risen

Link


Thanks for pointing that out. I didn't bother to check time stamp. I'd assume it'll resume a more w - wsw motion in the next 24 or so hrs.



It's annoying. The 12z map is available, but many times when I click my bookmark for it, it's an older map.
CMC for the third day is still showing a system off the eastcoast.
CMC at 108 hours
808. MahFL
Quoting 781. wunderkidcayman:



I need a link to that drone tracking


Link
Quoting EdwardinAlaska:
Well, you just might have....Quite a few new posts on his blog....maybe just a glitch in the server....


Lol
Nope

It's Jason Coolman
Just try to give himself attention
Quoting 785. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Interesting anyway. Local NAM has precip waters at 2.3" Double or Triple of Normal.




I posted this last night, Joe!



Courtesy of Accuweather. According to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Ken Clark, "Excessive rain is likely in some areas with the chance of life-threatening flash flooding."

Birthdate: Unknown.
Image date 15:32Z 09/04/2014
Name of graphic designer: Unknown.
Production design: uncredited
I will look into the backgrounds of who posted these and give a full report including genealogical backgrounds of all involved. I will then try to located names of all their classmates from 1st grade.
Quoting 794. weatherh98:



Most of them don't lol. It's a tough adjustment period, even the most well developed waves have issues when they exit Africa.


(Do I have to site this? Bc Ive just looked at enough satellite images to know) *kidding*


Link, please! :)
Quoting 793. luvtogolf:



How is it easy to blame El Nino if we don't have one declared and may not for a few more months?


Just because you don't have one declared doesn't mean you don't have El-Nino conditions in place just look at the E-Pac compared to the Atlantic. The E-Pac resembles what one would expect during El-Nino in terms of number of storms vrs the Atlantic.
Nam has a lot of rain over FL up to NC.

I hope some of these systems give us some rain here in Roatan it has been very dry, but this has been the pattern the last couple of years until Oct then it doesn't stop raining especially from the winter US cold fronts
I think this area off Florida should get a yellow X from the NHC.
Quoting 810. Grothar:



I posted this last night, Joe!



Courtesy of Accuweather. According to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Ken Clark, "Excessive rain is likely in some areas with the chance of life-threatening flash flooding."

Birthdate: Unknown.
Image date 15:32Z 09/04/2014
Name of graphic designer: Unknown.
Production design: uncredited
I will look into the backgrounds of who posted these and give a full report including genealogical backgrounds of all involved. I will then try to located names of all their classmates from 1st grade.



Thank you Master!
Quoting 815. Sfloridacat5:

I think this area off Florida should get a yellow X from the NHC.

maybe at 2pm yellow x
How do you cite blog comments in APA format?
Looking at CIMSS close up satellite imagery on 90L, it doesn't look that bad.
How do you cite blog comments in APA format?


i would always start with a title page
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
invest 90L not doing anything right now.
Hoping the Low stays with the moisture from Norbert, would think it would act as a better trigger for higher rain totals than if the Low and moisture become decoupled? I have seen this setup too many times when they decouple and the rain totals can be hit and miss and scant totals.

Gro, does the ECMWF turn it into Soo Call also......older model had it decoupling and the Low going west.
Quoting 815. Sfloridacat5:

I think this area off Florida should get a yellow X from the NHC.



It is under high shear on the East side of an anticyclone, but that anticyclone would only have to drift a couple of hundred miles East to put it under very favorable shear and upper divergence. Not a fast developer, but close to land. 700 and 850 mb vorticity max aligned well near the coast, 500 mb vorticity displaced South by the shear. And the convection and max low level vorticity aren't aligned.

But it has a chance.
Quoting 772. hydrus:

I read and like your posts Ed, but do nut lump every human that resides in Arkansas as someone who may be submarginal on the subject of vulcanism or any other..In the end, it makes you look like a smart ass.


Sorry. My two weeks in Arkansas were in a dry county (Lafayette), that has probably unfairly prejudiced me.
Quoting 683. EdMahmoud:

Insurance companies don't operate as charities, and have to cover risk and provide some rate of return to the stockholders.

Hurricane Celia in 1970 produced a max sustained 125 mph and a 161 mph gust at the Corpus Christi airport/NWS. Insurers took a bath, and were not writing new policies for coastal Texas until the state formed TWIA, an insurer of last resort. Now, if companies want to write policies anywhere in Texas, they have to pool their risk through TWIA and write policies.

I remember all the post-Ike commercials for a leech named Mostyn, wanting people to sue TWIA and other insurers over flood damage, which is not covered by windstorm policies, insisting their homes blew away before the water got to them. Pure BS, all the heavy damage was in the surge zone.

Major hurricanes which strike population centers in Texas are extremely rare. Bret was a major, but hit the least populated county on the Eastern Seaboard 16 years ago, 1983 was, IIRC, the last major to hit a population area. But if you live in an area where the once a lifetime storm destroys the house, the premiums will pretty much pay for that house over that lifetime.

Or people in coastal hurricane magnet Florida are going to pay high premiums. Price they pay for (usually) abundant rain, and avoiding the cold Winters Texas is known for. (Snowed an inch here in 2009, last Winter, two freezing rain events and a couple of hard freezes, although thank goodness the special citrus varieties bred to survive our harsh Winters made it). 19F in Houston December, 1989, Florida will never experience that (outside the Panhandle), you have to pay to live in paradise.



Nope, not at all, it actually got into the upper teens near the coast, and even middle teens over the interior, at pr even colder than in Houston during that same period. It gets colder in FL than you think. I've seen Tampa colder than New Orleans during cold outbreaks before, and often its very windy during these periods, making it feel even worse.

On average, Florida have very warm winters, but short lived cold blasts for a couple of days can be shocking cold for being so far south. Especially since most winter days are warm in FL, it makes the cold days seem that much more shocking.
Here's phase diagram on 00z CMC. It wouldn't take much of a track shift for it to not be in 26C or warmer water. The closer it is to land the less chance it would have of being tropical.. It is forecasting fairly shallow, subtropical as it is.



Quoting 783. StormTrackerScott:



I guess my prediction of a slow season is even bothering the admins.


Doubt it. Mine is 8-3-1, since May 15th & no one has said anything to me.
Quoting 809. wunderkidcayman:


Lol
Nope

It's Jason Coolman
Just try to give himself attention



I hope he last a click bot, because i wouldn't have the patience to copy past the same thing 1500 times in a row.
I think as you mentioned it's going to be a slow developer.
But I believe everything will eventually come together with time and we'll get a low to form and move up the Eastcoast.
It will most likly only affect the Outerbanks and possibly Cape Cod/New England region, but we'll see.



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