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Tropical Storm Dolly Hits Mexico; Tropical Storm Norbert Threatening Baja

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:13 PM GMT on September 03, 2014

Tropical Storm Dolly made landfall on Mexico's Gulf of Mexico coast just south of Tampico near 11 pm EDT Tuesday night as a minimal tropical storm with 45 mph winds. While Dolly's winds will not cause major damage, the storm's rainfall has the potential to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides as Dolly pushes inland and dissipates today. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Brownsville, Texas radar showed areas of 2 - 4 inches of rain along the coast of Mexico as of Wednesday morning, and isolated rainfall amounts of up to 15" are expected from Dolly. Satellite loops on Wednesday morning showed that Dolly still had some very heavy thunderstorms over the warm waters just offshore from Tampico, though the storm had been downgraded to a tropical depression with 35 mph winds as of 7 am CDT on Wednesday.


Figure 1. Twin tropical storms besiege Mexico: Tropical Storm Dolly nears landfall along Mexico's Bay of Campeche (right) as Tropical Storm Norbert brushes the Pacific coast of Southwest Mexico (left) in this GOES-East image taken at 7:45 pm EDT September 2, 2014. At the time, both storms had 45 mph sustained winds. Image credit: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Brownsville, Texas radar as of 9:49 am EDT on September 3, 2014, showed areas of 2 - 4" of rain had fallen along the coast of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Norbert a threat to Baja Mexico
In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Norbert is approaching hurricane strength in the waters south of the Baja Peninsula, taking advantage of unusually warm 29.5°C (85°F) Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs.) These SSTs are about 2°C (3.6°F) warmer than average. Satellite loops on Wednesday morning showed that Norbert had developed some very intense eyewall thunderstorms with cold cloud tops, and microwave imagery showed an eye beginning to develop. Norbert should be able to take advantage of warm SSTs, a moist atmosphere, and moderate wind shear over the next two days to intensify into at least a Category 1 hurricane. The 5 am PDT run of the SHIPS model predicted a substantial 30% chance that Norbert could undergo rapid intensification from a tropical storm with 60 mph winds to a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds by Thursday morning. However, Norbert is a small storm, and it's hurricane-force winds are only expected to reach out about 20 - 25 miles from the center when it makes its closest pass by the tip of the Baja Peninsula on Thursday night and Friday morning. In their 2 am PDT WInd Probability Advisory, NHC gave Cabo San Lucas on the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula a 72% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph, and a 10% chance of experiencing hurricane-force winds of 74+ mph.


Figure 3. MODIS true-color image of a well-organized tropical wave preparing to move off the coast of Africa, at approximately 8 am EDT September 3, 2014. Image credit: NASA.

New African tropical wave this weekend may develop
A tropical wave is expected to come off the coast of Africa on Thursday and move to the west at about 15 mph. This wave will be capable of bringing heavy rain and strong winds to the Cape Verde Islands on Friday and Saturday. Two of our three reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation show development by Sunday of the wave, and in their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system 2-day and 5-day odd of development odds of 0% and 30%, respectively. The Wednesday morning runs of the GFS and European ensemble models favored the storm taking a more west-northwesterly track into the open ocean next week, with a low long-range threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands indicated. However, it is too early to be confident that the storm will miss the islands, as the long-range tracks have shifted closer to the Lesser Antilles since their runs on Tuesday. The Atlantic is expected to be dominated by dry, sinking air next week, due to the phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, so I expect that any tropical waves crossing from Africa towards the Lesser Antilles will struggle to develop.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

This morning, I was thinking Norbert would try to rapidly intensify sometime today, but a displaced anticyclone has kept that from happening.
Quoting 486. Jedkins01:



I'm referring mainly to the position of low level ridging, since that's what influences the movement of steering of afternoon convection in Florida, it was south of the state for nearly the entire summer, this id the first time it has lifted far enough north for an east to southeast flow across much of the state for more than a couple days.
As far as 500 mb ridging, yes about two weeks, but the surface ridge for convective steering lifted north around Friday.

Although, moisture levels still aren't as consistently as moist as they usually are, thanks to the dry and quiet tropics. Otherwise, its pretty typical, for once, lol.


Ah yes. Low-level ridging is a different story.
Quoting 479. stormpetrol:


That happened right here in South Sound about a mile and half up the street from me and if I remember correctly that was the same year Haiti had the 7 and the one we had here was actually a 5.9
M 5.9 - Cayman Islands region
DYFI? - IV

Time
2010-01-19 09:23:38 UTC-05:00
Location
19.004°N 80.804°W
Depth
10.0km
I know I speak for everyone in extending you a big "Welcome back!!!!"Glad to have you back on board you big snuggly bear!
504. beell
Quoting 494. QueensWreath:

490. JRRP 2:01 AM GMT on September 04, 2014



If you could; please post this kind of thing with a preface statement, my old eyes cant read that and I have no clue what or where it is in Ref to. TIA


Right click on the image, select "open image in new tab (or window). From there hold the "Ctrl" key while rolling your mouse wheel or hitting the "plus" sign to zoom in if needed.
Quoting 498. sar2401:

Did you have to get out the boat or were the hip waders enough? :-)


The levees seem to be holding it all back, for now. Let's just hope tomorrow isn't another repeat! .25-.5" two days in a row could spell disaster. I see some spots along the coast, especially down by Ft Myers picked up over an inch perhaps. At least it was our typical sea breeze storms. Sick of the onshore flow, which seems to have been replaced by our current pattern. It rains any time of the day and sometimes all day then. Annoying when all you have is a motorcycle.


the spin is starting to pick up
Quoting Webberweather53:


Yep, sure did, the main purpose was to have the same data, just in my hands w/ all the storms, their individual ACE, pressure, wind etc. accounted for & to have the ability to retrieve viable statistical information within a moment's notice (i.e convenience). I feel I will get a lot more out of it this way rather than being spoon-fed the data, or perhaps you could plausibly conclude I'm a little "greedy" when it comes historical hurricane data (which is also why I've went ahead & calculated the Eastern Pacific although data already clearly exists. I have a personal preference to strive for my own independent interpretations of information, especially such information I am highly passionate about. Additionally, I have bigger plans to compare the VPM & RMM MJO in terms of ACE, NSD, HD, MHD, tracks, etc. (even though this is already discussed to an extent in some literature from Mike Ventrice)....
I'm probably lazy, but I prefer spoon-fed when someone else has already done the heavy lifting. I can see you are after a level of detail that will make you happy, so that's a good thing. Good luck to you, and I hope you come with some scientifically useful things from all your work.
Quoting 503. Llamaluvr:

I know I speak for everyone in extending you a big "Welcome back!!!!"Glad to have you back on board you big snuggly bear!

Thanks ! I've learned never to say never again! Also just to roll with the flow and don't take things to personal, I'll be 50 yrs old 2 months from today and you never get too old to learn or get a little wiser :)
Quoting GatorWX:


The levees seem to be holding it all back, for now. Let's just hope tomorrow isn't another repeat! .25-.5" two days in a row could spell disaster. I see some spots along the coast, especially down by Ft Myers picked up over an inch perhaps. At least it was our typical sea breeze storms. Sick of the onshore flow, which seems to have been replaced by our current pattern. It rains any time of the day and sometimes all day then. Annoying when all you have is a motorcycle.
Rain is a little different animal when you're riding a bike. I always feel sorry for the weekend bikers that come through town and look like drowned rats when they get caught in an afternoon storm. Well, I should say when we used to have afternoon storms. An inch of rain at one time is but a forgotten event up here. Good luck with the levees. :-)
Quoting 487. sar2401:

I posted earlier that I was right on the western edge of that MCV here. We had lightning from about 10:00 until 3 in the morning. Constant lightning and not one drop of rain, as the whole mess stayed about five miles east of me. All the thunderstorms that formed today haven't moved since about 3:00 pm and it looks like they are going to sit in the same place until they dissipate tonight. Not one drop of rain again tonight.


That sucks man, we missed most of the heavy rain too, but still ended up with 0.51 at my place last night, and 0.03 today, thanks to the nice apartment management that allowed me to setup a rain gauge in an open grassy area behind my apartment. Although there were some reports of 3-5 inches last night south of here, and the airport got 2 inches.

Back home in the Tampa Bay area, my parents ended up getting over 2.0 inches in less than hour at the gauge there.

Since Friday, the pattern has favored high coverage and heavy thunderstorms on the west coast, finally for the first time really all summer. But anyways, this is literally the first time since Friday that there has been measurable rain at my parents house despite the high coverage. They were literally in a local rain hole. Its been like that most of the summer, but thankfully they still get days like this to keep things from getting too dry.

Still though, the closest rain gauge to my parents house has similar totals to them, and had the driest Jun-Aug total on record, similar to here in Tallahassee which also had the driest Jun-Aug on record.

Although Tallahassee airport got just over 2 inches last night, and my parents got over 2 today, so things are looking better in both places.

Still though, when you consider that not even a tropical wave has impacted Florida this summer, combined with the record dryness in both Tallahassee and parts of the west Coast of Florida including my parents area, and how dry you have been, you know this has been a weird summer.

Also, the fact that a tropical system may impact California, but not even a tropical wave has impacted Florida all summer, is even weirder. Normally several tropical waves each month during the summer pass through Florida, even during inactive years like last year, we get a number of them.

Oh well, the drought is bad over there, they could use the rare but not complete unheard of impacts of a tropical system. Its rare, but every once in a great while, decaying systems survive the cold water and all the dry, stable air off the CA and make it into the area, bringing much needed rain.

Hopefully you'll get your share soon, sometimes the weather can be obnoxious, even in wet climates like yours and mine, patterns can occur where it seems like it will never rain, likewise very dry climates can get in rare consistently wet patterns.
invest 90L will be here in the morning time about 10am
Quoting 500. Webberweather53:

Rock on
Quoting JRRP:
Link
I think I already see some TS force winds.
Quoting 508. stormpetrol:


Thanks ! I've learned never to say never again! Also just to roll with the flow and don't take things to personal, I'll be 50 yrs old 2 months from today and you never get too old to learn or get a little wiser :)

Don't take this place serious, I have always enjoyed your input/speculation. This place has ran off a lot of cool cats, destinjeff, .........
Quoting 466. ncstorm:

I posted this about a month ago for those who kept posting the SAL map. This is for those who think Hurricanes die because they enter the great wall of SAL..

look familiar? Some examples..

Hurricane Irene Category 2 hurricane..


Hurricane Helene Cat 3 hurricane


you can find all the G-IV jet missions here

for real this time..night..




And Irene struggled mightily throughout most the MDR, once conditions became more favorable near the islands is where she took off.


Quoting 516. chrisdscane:

As a disaster responder I worked Irene for 4 months, Sandy only 2.
I wish that some of the rain that most of Florida is experiencing would come to the east coast. Here on the barrier islands of Daytona Bch., we have not seen one drop of water in almost 4 weeks...I feel like it's Arizona...Very unusual for August/September.
Quoting 511. Jedkins01:



That sucks man, we missed most of the heavy rain too, but still ended up with 0.51 at my place last night, and 0.03 today, thanks to the nice apartment management that allowed me to setup a rain gauge in an open grassy area behind my apartment. Although there were some reports of 3-5 inches last night south of here, and the airport got 2 inches.

Back home in the Tampa Bay area, my parents ended up getting over 2.0 inches in less than hour at the gauge there.

Since Friday, the pattern has favored high coverage and heavy thunderstorms on the west coast, finally for the first time really all summer. But anyways, this is literally the first time since Friday that there has been measurable rain at my parents house despite the high coverage. They were literally in a local rain hole. Its been like that most of the summer, but thankfully they still get days like this to keep things from getting too dry.

Still though, the closest rain gauge to my parents house has similar totals to them, and had the driest Jun-Aug total on record, similar to here in Tallahassee which also had the driest Jun-Aug on record.

Although Tallahassee airport got just over 2 inches last night, and my parents got over 2 today, so things are looking better in both places.

Still though, when you consider that not even a tropical wave has impacted Florida this summer, combined with the record dryness in both Tallahassee and parts of the west Coast of Florida including my parents area, and how dry you have been, you know this has been a weird summer.

Also, the fact that a tropical system may impact California, but not even a tropical wave has impacted Florida all summer, is even weirder. Normally several tropical waves each month during the summer pass through Florida, even during inactive years like last year, we get a number of them.

Oh well, the drought is bad over there, they could use the rare but not complete unheard of impacts of a tropical system. Its rare, but every once in a great while, decaying systems survive the cold water and all the dry, stable air off the CA and make it into the area, bringing much needed rain.

Hopefully you'll get your share soon, sometimes the weather can be obnoxious, even in wet climates like yours and mine, patterns can occur where it seems like it will never rain, likewise very dry climates can get in rare consistently wet patterns.
Quoting sar2401:
Did you have to get out the boat or were the hip waders enough? :-)


The STS forecast center said heaviest rains across the interior part of the state. They didn't get very much today.
Slow in here. So about 48hrs before we have 72hrs of watching the current wave coming off go by the wayside?
California maybe affected with its second tropical cyclone of the season while we here in Florida can't get no kinda tropical weather smh
2014 is oddly following a pattern. Arthur formed on July 1, Bertha formed on August 1, Dolly formed on September 1. Two and Cristobal formed three weeks after their predecessor.

Therefore, we can a cyclone around the 22nd, and another storm on October 1.

Bet. :P

Quoting 522. TropicalAnalystwx13:

2014 is oddly following a pattern. Arthur formed on July 1, Bertha formed on August 1, Dolly formed on September 1. Two and Cristobal formed three weeks after their predecessor.

Therefore, we can a cyclone around the 22nd, and another storm on October 1.

Bet. :P




This sounds like some Vegas jargon. ;-)
The models have been doing pretty well on Norbert's track AEMI, CMC, HWRF are doing well. NHC has gone that path for their offical track.

The models have been over doing the intensity..
Quoting DrTau:
http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/IMAGERY/ IR 108/BW/WESTATLANTIC/index.htm
Guys, I think we might have accidentally missed one. Before you flag as spam just for me saying that...

Did anyone say anything about that thing 6 degrees south of the canaries from the date in the timestamp to now? Someone told me it was an upper level low last Tuesday morning, but I very highly doubt that now, given the well-defined low-level circulation and outflow, persistent convection (for a while), and *marginally* warm-enough SSTs.

If something like this is considered off-topic, I won't post it again.
Is not off topic, neither is impossible, but just unlikely, just kind of a "wishful thinking' on this below average hurricane season...
526. JLPR2
Yep...


Quoting chrisdscane:




And Irene struggled mightily throughout most the MDR, once conditions became more favorable near the islands is where she took off.


I remembered when she was called a hurricane on top of my house, here in Puerto Rico...
Quoting Jedkins01:


That sucks man, we missed most of the heavy rain too, but still ended up with 0.51 at my place last night, and 0.03 today, thanks to the nice apartment management that allowed me to setup a rain gauge in an open grassy area behind my apartment. Although there were some reports of 3-5 inches last night south of here, and the airport got 2 inches.

Back home in the Tampa Bay area, my parents ended up getting over 2.0 inches in less than hour at the gauge there.

Since Friday, the pattern has favored high coverage and heavy thunderstorms on the west coast, finally for the first time really all summer. But anyways, this is literally the first time since Friday that there has been measurable rain at my parents house despite the high coverage. They were literally in a local rain hole. Its been like that most of the summer, but thankfully they still get days like this to keep things from getting too dry.

Still though, the closest rain gauge to my parents house has similar totals to them, and had the driest Jun-Aug total on record, similar to here in Tallahassee which also had the driest Jun-Aug on record.

Although Tallahassee airport got just over 2 inches last night, and my parents got over 2 today, so things are looking better in both places.

Still though, when you consider that not even a tropical wave has impacted Florida this summer, combined with the record dryness in both Tallahassee and parts of the west Coast of Florida including my parents area, and how dry you have been, you know this has been a weird summer.

Also, the fact that a tropical system may impact California, but not even a tropical wave has impacted Florida all summer, is even weirder. Normally several tropical waves each month during the summer pass through Florida, even during inactive years like last year, we get a number of them.

Oh well, the drought is bad over there, they could use the rare but not complete unheard of impacts of a tropical system. Its rare, but every once in a great while, decaying systems survive the cold water and all the dry, stable air off the CA and make it into the area, bringing much needed rain.

Hopefully you'll get your share soon, sometimes the weather can be obnoxious, even in wet climates like yours and mine, patterns can occur where it seems like it will never rain, likewise very dry climates can get in rare consistently wet patterns.
This ULL/tropical wave coming through might help both of us tomorrow as it stirs up the heat and humidity a little. The big batch of storms north of you has now bee sitting in the same place for about 7 hours and looks like it well die there by midnight or so. All the convection in south Alabama is gone. We have one more chance tomorrow before it's right back to hot and dry again. In addition to not getting the usual tropical waves to give us rain, this has been an exceedingly long period of very hot weather that also has high humidity. When we get temperatures near or over 100, it's usually because a high up over the Plains is pumping down dry air. Not this year. The humidity has been absolutely suffocating. I don't remember a period in the past where I can have a temperature of 99 with a 76 dewpoint and not have a cloud in the sky. Even our usual summertime haze has been absent this year. Very strange pattern indeed.
Quoting win1gamegiantsplease:


Forgot to link this

My grandmother told me her experiences as a little girl during "San Ciriaco" hurricane, one of the more deadliest storms to hit Puerto Rico, just after the American invasion in 1899,,,,
Quoting StormJunkie:
Slow in here. So about 48hrs before we have 72hrs of watching the current wave coming off go by the wayside?
I'm afraid so. We'll have 24 hours of complaining the NHC is asleep at the switch, why haven't they designated this an invest yet, might even be a TS at this rate...then we'll have 24 hours of well, it doesn't look great, but better than {fill in name of storm this year}, it can overcome a little dry air...then 24 hours of what happened, why does it look so crummy, this season's over, the active period is over, I'm going to hang myself...then we're right back to where we are today. :-)
Quoting HuracanTaino:

My grandmother told me her experiences as a little girl during "San Ciriaco" hurricane, one of the most deadliest storms to hit Puerto Rico, just after the American invasion in 1899,,,,

Quoting 454. hydrus:

No. He was the first human to witness Africa exit Pangea..



Grothar remembers the Big Bang, but has sworn an oath of secrecy. I came along a few millions years later. I have detested rapid expansions ever since I began to experience the midlife spread. :)
Quoting 516. chrisdscane:





And Irene struggled mightily throughout most the MDR, once conditions became more favorable near the islands is where she took off.





hmm, i forgot that Irene caused $16 billion in damage. Guess it kinda got forgotten after Sandy
Quoting 525. HuracanTaino:

Is not off topic, neither is impossible, but just unlikely, just kind of a "wishful thinking' on this below average hurricane season...


Got close to the 26ºC line & should get nearer to a shallow core...but not tropical.

00z GFS keeps the E coast area on shore from N Fl to the OBX....If somehow it got a little further off shore, could have a little homegrown action. But the forecast period is short, so I sort of doubt the accuracy is off much.

Night all.



CHS NWS

SATURDAY...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OVER 2 INCHES. NAM SHOWING A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING UP THE
COAST FROM FL TO OFF SC COAST. OTHER MODELS MAINLY SHOW A WEAK
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH. THE DETAILS OF THE SURFACE FEATURES ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...GIVEN SLIGHTLY LOWER UPPER HEIGHTS AND
SUFFICIENT TROPICAL MOISTURE...EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF POPS NEED TO BE RAISED
MORE WITH LATER FORECASTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER
90S...BUT MAY BE LOWER IF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ENDS UP BEING HIGHER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED.
Hmmm
This is the 2008 Norbert, could this one do the same.
I think 20/40 or 30/50 for me if I were to write the TWO.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
654 PM PDT WED SEP 3 2014

ON THE SUBJECT OF WARMTH...SEA SURFACE TEMPS ARE STILL RUNNING ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ALONG COASTAL CA...BY APPROX 4-5 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT...FROM POINT ARENA TO CAPE SAN MARTIN. NOT SEEING SUFFICENT
NW WIND TO GENERATE COASTAL WATER UPWELLING IN THE VERY NEAR TERM.
THE PRESENT EDDY CIRCULATION OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL THEN BE
FOLLOWED BY A LACK OF ACV-SFO GRADIENT AND NW WINDS AT LEAST INTO
SATURDAY.

Some warm fog managed to seep in this evening over the Bay Area, but nothing like the usual fog on cold winds. More like San Diego. Mighty unusual along the NorCal coast this summer.
539. JRRP
new ball of convection is forming
540. JRRP
Quoting JRRP:
new ball of convection is forming
This need to get labeled now.90L please. Upped chances please. :) :(
Quoting 509. sar2401:

Rain is a little different animal when you're riding a bike. I always feel sorry for the weekend bikers that come through town and look like drowned rats when they get caught in an afternoon storm. Well, I should say when we used to have afternoon storms. An inch of rain at one time is but a forgotten event up here. Good luck with the levees. :-)


Weekend bikers. Pfffft! Na, but anyone on a bike hates the rain. I respect all bikers. It annoys me when they don't wave back on the road. We're all in it together.
543. JRRP
Quoting HurricaneAndre:
This need to get labeled now.90L please. Upped chances please. :) :(

lol maybe tomorrow if it continúes strengthening


The remnant of Marie is still pushing up moisture in a peculiar little pinhole updraft that is sending a plume downwind, partially feeding a midlevel circulation to its northeast, cutoff entirely from the main flow aloft. In the last few hours it appears to be drifting toward the coast. Meanwhile, you can see the atmosphere over the southern Sierras starting to moisten in what looks to be a strand of monsoonal flow that has curled around the western tip of the upper ridge that runs from Texas thru Arizona. Once Norbert gets closer, this is the flow that will influence where its moisture goes. It really would be great if we could get a copious orographic event over the Sierra watershed rather than only over the deserts.
545. JRRP

Buoy 12.000 N 23.000 W
Quoting 545. JRRP:


Buoy 12.000 N 23.000 W



Hmmm. Pretty good drop.
547. JRRP
como decimos en español... TODO EL QUE SE VA A MORIR, SE ALIENTA.
GFS 168h ensemble... nada

548. JRRP
Quoting GatorWX:


Hmmm. Pretty good drop.

yeah
I wonder how long it'll carry that along with it.

550. JRRP
000
ABNT20 KNHC 040541
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave, accompanied by a broad low pressure system, has
emerged off the coast of Africa a few hundred miles east-southeast
of the Cape Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for gradual development of this disturbance through
early next week while it moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
551. JRRP
up to 40% in 5 days

552. Mikla
Some decent links to the African wave sat images...
link
link
link
link

link
ROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave, accompanied by a broad low pressure system, has
emerged off the coast of Africa a few hundred miles east-southeast
of the Cape Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for gradual development of this disturbance through
early next week while it moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
invest 90L will be here soon

good morning! check out sefl into atl

Link NWS 3:30 am Melbourne FL Discussion
...
TODAY-TONIGHT...AXIS OF THE EASTERLY WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH RUC ANALYSIS
SHOWING THE MAIN VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE STILL BACK
OVER THE NW BAHAMAS. THIS IS COINCIDENT WITH THE LARGER AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS PRESENT OVER THE ATLANTIC EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN ACTIVITY OVER THE LOCAL WATERS AS
THIS FEATURE ROTATES FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.
WAVE WILL SLOWLY TRANSIT THE PENINSULA DURING THE DAY...PUTTING THE
REGION ON THE MORE FAVORED ASCENDING SIDE OF THE WAVE....

...Looks like ECFL will finally get some rain today...
Quoting 558. Chicklit:

Link NWS 3:30 am Melbourne FL Discussion
...
TODAY-TONIGHT...AXIS OF THE EASTERLY WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH RUC ANALYSIS
SHOWING THE MAIN VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE STILL BACK
OVER THE NW BAHAMAS. THIS IS COINCIDENT WITH THE LARGER AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS PRESENT OVER THE ATLANTIC EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN ACTIVITY OVER THE LOCAL WATERS AS
THIS FEATURE ROTATES FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.
WAVE WILL SLOWLY TRANSIT THE PENINSULA DURING THE DAY...PUTTING THE
REGION ON THE MORE FAVORED ASCENDING SIDE OF THE WAVE....

...Looks like ECFL will finally get some rain today...

well here on the gulf coast we sure had a good storm last night..tons of lightning and some great rain..this morning everything is soaking wet..been quite awhile since that happened..
We now have Invest 90L for the African Wave.

561. DrTau
Quoting 534. Skyepony:



Got close to the 26ºC line & should get nearer to a shallow core...but not tropical.



That was really helpful. Thanks :)
Hope you like swamp critters in Florida, cause it is fixin to rain, yall.


Still chugging along.... Morning E.C.



we have invest 90L LETs dance!!
Good Morning..

both the 00z and 06z GFS runs have shifted west with 90L..far out but starting to see a trend..

06z






566. MahFL
Quoting 560. Tropicsweatherpr:

We now have Invest 90L for the African Wave.


Nice outflow on the west side.
Lol, the latest GFS has 90L hitting Florida! Crazy path it takes. Definitely a player IMO
568. MahFL
Quoting 564. hurricanes2018:




we have invest 90L LETs dance!!


Oh bummer, out to sea.
Landfall of another system in texas

Quoting 568. MahFL:



Oh bummer, out to sea.


Really? It has no choice but to be in the sea :) where it goes in the sea is a different story, let's say ummm.... Florida per the GFS
06z Navgem

last frame
Courtesy of the poor conditions for development in the MDR. Should be interesting if it survives next 7 days. Thanks for posting.

Quoting 565. ncstorm:

Good Morning..

both the 00z and 06z GFS runs have shifted west with 90L..far out but starting to see a trend..

06z







good morning yesterday my mac book received warnings about phishing on this site. it was an ad most likely careful friends it may be not what it seems


We're 5/10 as far as storms to invests. Now we start over finally..

Took us to September 4th to use up all the invest numbers...



big hurricane in the GOM!
576. JRRP
now will pay attention to the african wave ???
Interesting how 90L sits off the FL east coast for 4 days then backs in as a developing hurricane. Very very long range but interesting to say the least.

Quoting hydrus:
No. He was the first human to witness Africa exit Pangea..


we wouldn't be here if pangea still existed!!!!!! Everyone would of killed each other by now.
580. MahFL
Quoting 577. StormTrackerScott:

Interesting how 90L sits off the FL east coast for 4 days then backs in as a developing hurricane. Very very long range but interesting to say the least.


Seems to be high pressure on the east coast, no trough to re-curve it ?
Quoting 573. islander101010:

good morning yesterday my mac book received warnings about phishing on this site. it was an ad most likely careful friends it may be not what it seems


To be honest this site is not safe to be on. This is something that Doc has to fix as all of these ads on here seem to have viruses. Some even down load on your computer and you wouldn't even know it. This is what ncstorm was trying to say a few weeks ago but got shot down as ricderr said nothing is wrong with the site when that's not true. IMO this site should be ad free but then again NBC has taken this site over so there you go. Everything is just a way to make money while were the ones spending all of this money to keep our computers safe due to sites like this.
583. MahFL
Can't wait until more people have their coffee and see what the 06z GFS showed this morning.
Freezing temps up north as a strong polar high builds which is what eventually sends 90L back west. Polar moves in a day 10 and stays put thru day 16. Notice all the 20's for lows across the NE US. Killing freezes for a week straight seeming more likely across the northern US come later next week.


Quoting 580. MahFL:



Seems to be high pressure on the east coast, no trough to re-curve it ?


See post 585.
nbc? hell of alot better than the australian owned company.. that company breeds paranoia
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Can't wait until more people have their coffee and see what the 06z GFS showed this morning.


just woke up. getting coffee now. Atl looks dead for sept. What up with the GFS?
Quoting 547. JRRP:

como decimos en español... TODO EL QUE SE VA A MORIR, SE ALIENTA.
GFS 168h ensemble... nada


Nunca habia escuchado esa cosa en mi vida,pero parece bien para esta onda tropical
Quoting 589. prcane4you:

Nunca habia escuchado esa cosa en mi vida,pero parece bien para esta onda tropical


Translation in english.

I've never heard in my life That Thing, but It Seems well For This tropical wave
592. flsky
Download Adblock
<
blockquote class='blogquote'>Quoting 581. StormTrackerScott:



To be honest this site is not safe to be on. This is something that Doc has to fix as all of these ads on here seem to have viruses. Some even down load on your computer and you wouldn't even know it. This is what ncstorm was trying to say a few weeks ago but got shot down as ricderr said nothing is wrong with the site when that's not true. IMO this site should be ad free but then again NBC has taken this site over so there you go. Everything is just a way to make money while were the ones spending all of this money to keep our computers safe due to sites like this.
Quoting Autistic2:


just woke up. getting coffee now. Atl looks dead for sept. What up with the GFS?


Just its usual long-range doom and gloom.
I think 90L is going to struggle. Some SAL/dry air ahead of it, and according to SHIPS generally 10-15kts of shear. If it doesn't totally fall apart over the MDR it could be a development threat later on, it would just depend on how conditions are farther west.



Sure it is fantasy range garbage that won't verify. But it would provide needed rain for my lawn.

Quoting 581. StormTrackerScott:



To be honest this site is not safe to be on. This is something that Doc has to fix as all of these ads on here seem to have viruses. Some even down load on your computer and you wouldn't even know it. This is what ncstorm was trying to say a few weeks ago but got shot down as ricderr said nothing is wrong with the site when that's not true. IMO this site should be ad free but then again NBC has taken this site over so there you go. Everything is just a way to make money while were the ones spending all of this money to keep our computers safe due to sites like this.


If you have Google Chrome the AdBlock Plus app/extension should help drastically.
Quoting 596. Articuno:



If you have Google Chrome the AdBlock Plus app/extension should help drastically.


Thank you as this is getting ridiculous already. Just in the last few weeks the ads on here have gotten more vicious.
How do you get back on the classic site as this new site is not good and bogs down my i-pad and i-phone?
That wave is a long way off. Plenty of time to watch it and play with your models. Seems to be pretty far north to make it all the way to the East coast. probably won't get much past 65 or 70 degrees, before going fishing.
Quoting 598. SFLWeatherman:




I see some blocking there with a Polar Ridge stuck over the NE US. Not a good pattern for FL if the Atlantic Basin decides it wants to get active.
602. MahFL
Quoting 593. CybrTeddy:



Just its usual long-range doom and gloom.


Doom and excitement !
700-500 mb mean RH in the low 40s/high 30s% range will be at least as detrimental to 90L as shear.

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/14090406AL9014_ ships.txt

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 18m

Forget the African waves cant get to US for 10 days. Innocuous area T storms off Fla on NC coast in 5 days, may be much more important
Quoting 599. StormTrackerScott:

How do you get back on the classic site as this new site is not good and bogs down my i-pad and i-phone?


replace the "www" with "classic" and then bookmark it afterwards....

Classic site
http://classic.wunderground.com/tropical/

I use this. The new site bogs down my new 6 core processer comp. I checked, all six core at 100% and still takes 60 to 90 sec to load after every comment.

This one is instant.
Quoting 590. StormTrackerScott:



Translation in english.

I've never heard in my life That Thing, but It Seems well For This tropical wave
Im impressed.
Quoting 542. GatorWX:



Weekend bikers. Pfffft! Na, but anyone on a bike hates the rain. I respect all bikers. It annoys me when they don't wave back on the road. We're all in it together.


Motorcycles were invented so orthopedic surgeons' kids could go to college too. I wouldn't touch them but of course my invincible kids want them cuz they're cheaper and more nimble.
The temps look about right for the time of year. I had frost in Maine around Aug 20th one year. By late September, lows below 32F are expected in interior NY/New England.

Cover your tomatoes peeps, you may get an extra couple weeks!

Quoting 585. StormTrackerScott:

Freezing temps up north as a strong polar high builds which is what eventually sends 90L back west. Polar moves in a day 10 and stays put thru day 16. Notice all the 20's for lows across the NE US. Killing freezes for a week straight seeming more likely across the northern US come later next week.



Quoting 598. SFLWeatherman:


The same high that blocks the recurve for the Atlantic storm creates the weakness for the BOC storm. Double whammy.
Quoting 567. STORMW2014:
Lol, the latest GFS has 90L hitting Florida! Crazy path it takes. Definitely a player IMO


If the models are seeing that Florida will be a target on 09/20 then I an confident that chances are Florida could end up safe. I say that due to model inconsistencies from run to run to run ,etc. etc. etc.
Quoting 585. StormTrackerScott:

Freezing temps up north as a strong polar high builds which is what eventually sends 90L back west. Polar moves in a day 10 and stays put thru day 16. Notice all the 20's for lows across the NE US. Killing freezes for a week straight seeming more likely across the northern US come later next week.








And that's the usual time for first light freeze up there.
BTW DC metro outer suburbs had a freeze Sept 24, 1974. Inner suburbs had it October 4 that year, earliest I've seen it that close in. In Mt Vernon VA at a site with only 50% sky exposure I got nailed Oct 4 and most tender stuff was killed.
Nothing against Florida, but coming up on 10 years w/o a major.

Nature is not in harmony if hurricanes aren't hitting Florida.
All these very legitimate complaints about the WU software and how poorly it runs, think they might actually try to repair it?
Quoting 585. StormTrackerScott:

Freezing temps up north as a strong polar high builds which is what eventually sends 90L back west. Polar moves in a day 10 and stays put thru day 16. Notice all the 20's for lows across the NE US. Killing freezes for a week straight seeming more likely across the northern US come later next week.




The *average* date of the first freeze in northern parts of Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont is September 15, so that map shows nothing out of the ordinary. (By the end of September, all or most of 13 states have experienced their first freeze, and by mid-October, that number has grown to 28.)
618. SLU
I'm not as bullish as the NHC with 90L's chances. The MDR is just too stable to allow for much to take place with it and the SSTs aren't bubbling hot along its entire track either. Given this is 2014 and the activity appears to be even more sporadic than last year, i'd say slow and painstaking development, if any.

INVEST AL902014 09/04/14 06 UTC

700-500 MB RH 66 65 66 66 66 63 59 53 48 43 43 40 39

SHEAR (KT) 14 14 16 13 13 13 7 10 14 18 18 17 18

SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.2 27.2 27.7 27.7 27.3 26.9 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.2
619. 882MB
Good morning everyone, I see the GEM Model and the GFS 06Z have shifted closer to the islands, but I'm sorry I can't stop laughing at how the GFS pulls a Betsy with 2 loops, off the coast of Florida, could happen but its long range, so yeah this may, and probably will change interesting set up though, with that large High, which will also bring some really cold temps for the northern states, any other models shifting closer to the Lesser Antilles?
Quoting 616. EdMahmoud:

All these very legitimate complaints about the WU software and how poorly it runs, think they might actually try to repair it?


I wouldn't hold your breath.....
colorful water vapor loop? so much going on. not favorable for cyclone development.
Quoting 606. Autistic2:

http://classic.wunderground.com/tropical/

I use this. The new site bogs down my new 6 core processer comp. I checked, all six core at 100% and still takes 60 to 90 sec to load after every comment.

This one is instant.


I cut the comment window from 200 to 100 and reduced the number of script hangs by a factor of 50+. Haven't found viruses or malware yet from here but ???? I'l take STS' warning to heart.. thanks.
623. JRRP
Quoting ncstorm:

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 18m

Forget the African waves cant get to US for 10 days. Innocuous area T storms off Fla on NC coast in 5 days, may be much more important

I do not live in USA I live in the caribbean... so to me is more important the 90L
mistaken post

sorry.
625. SLU
This is not what most bloggers (including myself) like to hear but it's hard to imagine any development with 90L possible at least inside 3 days with it moving into this kind of environment. The convection has already gone "poof". No wonder the EURO has been killing it for the past couple of days.

90L may be good for now has far has wind shear gos but if it wants to make it to Florida. Has Hurricane it would 1st have to get passed. 50kt of shear when it gets more W
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
628. SLU
Good Morning!
Long time lurker here and just decided to comment out of nowhere
I see the 06Z GFS has continued to support the development of those two African waves, and a more westerly course as well. Though I'm very skeptical that'll actually happen. Anybody know what the 0Z Euro shows?
Quoting 613. rmbjoe1954:



If the models are seeing that Florida will be a target on 09/20 then I an confident that chances are Florida could end up safe. I say that due to model inconsistencies from run to run to run ,etc. etc. etc.



i AGREE.... I can't recall EVER seeing a storm end up where the models showed it ending up 384 hours out. I'm sure it must have happened at least once, but not something ive ever personally seen myself.
long range GFS is kinda scary..way too far out in time to really take it seriously but florida and texas stay alert 2nd-third week of sept...could very well be TWO tropical systems affecting the USA..we'll see as time goes by huh...
Quoting 594. MAweatherboy1:

I think 90L is going to struggle. Some SAL/dry air ahead of it, and according to SHIPS generally 10-15kts of shear. If it doesn't totally fall apart over the MDR it could be a development threat later on, it would just depend on how conditions are farther west.





It's pretty much a given that it will die a painful death judging by the fact that most of its convection is gone and it has that biblical wedge of SAL ahead of it to go through.