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Tropical Storm Dolly Forms in the Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:24 PM GMT on September 02, 2014

Say hello to the Atlantic's fourth named storm of 2014--Tropical Storm Dolly, which formed Tuesday morning in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. Radar loops out of Altamira, Mexico show Dolly's heavy thunderstorms were already beginning to move ashore over the coast of Mexico a few hundred miles south of the Texas border Tuesday morning, though the heaviest activity was still well offshore. Satellite loops on Tuesday morning showed the classic appearance of a tropical storm struggling with wind shear--a low level circulation center partially exposed to view, with the heavy thunderstorms limited to one side (the south side) by strong upper-level winds. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) were very warm, near 30°C (86°F), but dry air to the north of Dolly was being driven into the center of the storm's circulation by strong upper-level winds from the north-northwest, keeping development slow. Dolly doesn't have long over water before it makes landfall on Wednesday morning, and likely will not have time to intensify into a hurricane, given the dry air to its north and continued moderate levels of wind shear expected to affect the storm. None of the Tuesday morning runs of the reliable hurricane intensity models showed Dolly becoming a hurricane. Heavy rain is the main threat of the storm, and Dolly's rains will be capable of generating dangerous flash floods and mudslides over the mountainous terrain of Mexico near and to the south of the landfall location. The heavy rain threat will be less to the north of the landfall location, due to the presence of dry air.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Dolly.

Say Hello, Dolly--again!
Dolly's formation on September 2 comes more than a week later than the usual formation date of the Atlantic's fourth named storm, August 23. The 2014 version of Tropical Storm Dolly is the eighth appearance of a storm named Dolly in the Atlantic. Dolly made its first appearance in 1953 as hurricane that weakened before passing over Bermuda. Dolly's most recent appearance, as a 2008 Category 2 hurricane that hit near the Texas/Mexico border, was its most damaging--$1.5 billion in losses were recorded. This was not enough to get the name Dolly retired, though, and I expect we will see the name Dolly get recycled again in 2020. (The record number of appearances of a storm name for the Atlantic is ten, held by Arlene.)

New African tropical wave this weekend may develop
A tropical wave is expected to come off the coast of Africa on Thursday and move to the west at about 15 mph. This wave will be capable of bringing heavy rain and strong winds to the Cape Verde Islands on Friday and Saturday. Our three reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation all show development by Saturday of the wave, and in their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system 2-day and 5-day odd of development odds of 0% and 30%, respectively. The Tuesday morning runs of the GFS and European ensemble models favored the storm taking a more west-northwesterly track into the open ocean next week, with no long-range threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands indicated.

Tropical Storm Norbert a potential threat to Baja Mexico
In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Norbert is gathering strength a few hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Though Mexico's Baja Peninsula was not in NHC's cone of uncertainty for Friday, the 00Z Tuesday run of the reliable European model did show Norbert coming very close to Baja on Friday, and residents there should be alert to a possible shift in the predicted track of Norbert towards them in future NHC advisories. Satellite loops show that Norbert has plenty of heavy thunderstorms, but this activity was just offshore of Southwest Mexico on Tuesday morning. Norbert's formation on September 2 comes more than 5 weeks before the typical October 11 formation date of the season's fourteenth storm in the Eastern Pacific.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 456. KoritheMan:


Back to the Future 3 WAS going to be my guess. :P



A Million Ways to Die in the West!!
Quoting 488. Danali:

Come on people! The Pacific is having a record breaking season! As weather goes the Pacific and the Atlantic are interconnected, the effects just take longer to be documented, so all the patterns should be of interest.

Tropical Storm Norbert and Hurricane Dolly are right next to each other! Thats so cool.... and yet - I am surprised that the reaction isn't awe, but disappointment at the season.

Anyways I am curious if people things the storms will have any impact on each other? Does the increased moisture hit each other?
I think people are a little underwhelmed by Dolly / Norbert because they saw a similar pairing just last year in Ingrid/Manuel. The two storms together caused a fair amount of havoc in MX, too, coming ashore at strong TS / hurricane status.
503. JRRP

and look at this
Hmmmm!!!
Looking very interesting!!
Quoting 488. Danali:

Come on people! The Pacific is having a record breaking season! As weather goes the Pacific and the Atlantic are interconnected, the effects just take longer to be documented, so all the patterns should be of interest.

Tropical Storm Norbert and Hurricane Dolly are right next to each other! Thats so cool.... and yet - I am surprised that the reaction isn't awe, but disappointment at the season.

Anyways I am curious if people things the storms will have any impact on each other? Does the increased moisture hit each other?

I'm curious about that too given the presence of a ridge north of both systems. The moist layer is deep, but it does have to cross the high mountainous plateau of Mexico which will wring out a lot of the moisture before it gets to the Pacific coast. On the other hand, moist flows aloft might make it. Who knows?
Quoting 3211976:
Hmmmm!!!
Looking very interesting!!


that one hasnt gained much altitude since it left Africa
Quoting 493. JRRP:


See, this right here is bugging. I hate when the anomaly hangs out right overhead.... :o/

Quoting 494. HurriHistory:

Because it is an ULL and is not a tropical system down at the surface. Therefore it will only bring an increase in showers and thunderstorms to parts of South Florida. These type of systems are quite common during the Hurricane Season.
i want to thank you for posting the video about the 1935 labor Day Hurricane. I have been to the monument at Matecumbe. What those people experienced was an absolute nightmare, I saw interviews with survivors on t.v..What they witnessed was unbelievable but true.
509. JRRP
Quoting 506. will40:



that one hasnt gained much altitude since it left Africa
Granted it's a model, but I admit this one has me more concerned than just about anything else we've seen this season. If this makes it to our area as more than a struggling TS, we may see the "bomb" a lot of the bloggers have been crying for.
Quoting 488. Danali:

Come on people! The Pacific is having a record breaking season! As weather goes the Pacific and the Atlantic are interconnected, the effects just take longer to be documented, so all the patterns should be of interest.

Tropical Storm Norbert and Hurricane Dolly are right next to each other! Thats so cool.... and yet - I am surprised that the reaction isn't awe, but disappointment at the season.

Anyways I am curious if people things the storms will have any impact on each other? Does the increased moisture hit each other?
I believe you mean tropical storm Dolly.
Quoting DeepSeaRising:
Some areas may have received 75 inches of rain with Mitch????? That is impossible to imagine unless you lived through it. Most estimated rainfall from any system ever? Bangladesh cyclone of 1970 killed an estimated 300K but that was surge related. We've, in many ways been lucky in America. Some day soon a Cat5 will hit Miami, TB/ST.Pete, or NY directly. And by soon I mean in the next 25 years.


It is reported that hurricane Flora, dumped up to 60 inches on Jamaica, this maybe a bit difficult to confirm.

But extreme rainfall events are not uncommon, here in Jamaica, especially during the passage of Tropical systems. It's not much different across the tropics either.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Granted it's a model, but I admit this one has me more concerned than just about anything else we've seen this season. If this makes it to our area as more than a struggling TS, we may see the "bomb" a lot of the bloggers have been crying for.


i agree just one run but looks like a low rider for now
I'm off for the night. Here's hoping MX doesn't get too much rain from Dolly, and that Norbert does get to hurricane status faster than anticipated.... g'night!
515. JRRP
Quoting BahaHurican:
See, this right here is bugging. I hate when the anomaly hangs out right overhead.... :o/


more west in this run...
Quoting 498. allancalderini:

I can't imagine if Mitch had make landfall in Honduras as a cat 5. Thankfully in weakened to cat 1 when it made landfall. I imagine the mountainous terrain disrupt its eyewall and make dry air to enter the circulation easily.
Mitch was huge, and pulled in millions of tonnes of moisture from the Pacific, making an already deadly storm even worse..You should read this. Mitch went on to Ireland and 90 mph gusts , doing considerable damage.


Link


much weaker storm here more to the west by wednesday morning we have no lows on here!
Quoting BahaHurican:
I'm off for the night. Here's hoping MX doesn't get too much rain from Dolly, and that Norbert does get to hurricane status faster than anticipated.... g'night!


Night Baha!
Quoting 489. JRRP:

dry dry dry...

that is very good more west




here we go!
Quoting 515. JRRP:


more west in this run...


Yep! It is looking a little suspicious for us in PR. Models after 150hr are usually trash but wat is consistent is that each run moves it more west.
Quoting 512. nigel20:



It is reported that hurricane Flora, dumped up to 60 inches on Jamaica, this maybe a bit difficult to confirm.

But extreme rainfall events are not uncommon, here in Jamaica, especially during the passage of Tropical systems. It's not much different across the tropics either.
It could have,, Eastern Cuba had reports of over 90 inches in four days as it meandered there. This hurricane was seeded by us, so Castro blamed the heavy death toll on America.
Quoting 517. hydrus:

Mitch was huge, and pulled in millions of tonnes of moisture from the Pacific, making an already deadly storm even worse..You should read this. Mitch went on to Ireland and 90 mph gusts , doing considerable damage.


Link
Mitch was over Tegucigalpa in November 1st that was the day I became 3. I don't remember if I made my party next week or two weeks later.
Wow... Well a false one of these sent residents in a panic on the Kenai Today...

Woops....

Shortly after 10 a.m., the Anchorage National Weather Service Office sent out a tsunami warning test for the Kenai Peninsula region over weather radio frequencies maintained by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The Kenai Peninsula sirens are designed to automatically interpret codes and tones from the NOAA radio messages. Although the automated message came across radio waves as a test, the code feeding into the sirens said something else -- causing the sirens to interpret it as an actual tsunami warning, said Kenai Peninsula Borough Office of Emergency Management program coordinator Dan Nelson.

528. JRRP
Quoting 3211976:


Yep! It is looking a little suspicious for us in PR. Models after 150hr are usually trash but wat is consistent is that each run moves it more west.

mmm wait the next run
Quoting Webberweather53:


Well, even though we have adequate observations of the Atlantic and the last decade has featured some of the most active seasons on record thanks to the AMO, I think it needs to be mentioned here that despite how active the 2005 hurricane season was w/ nearly 250 points of ACE...

Can you give me link to an official source of the 1933 ACE score? The only references I can find are a Wiki article on the 1933 season and blogs like the weatheradvance.com site where you got the graphs. There's a vague reference to the reanalysis project in Wiki but no link back there either. My understanding is that there are no official ACE scores before 1950 so I'm trying to understand where the 1933 score came from. BTW, the Wiki article on the 1933 season has a different ACE score than the weatheradvance.com charts show.
Quoting hydrus:
It could have,, Eastern Cuba had reports of over 90 inches in four days as it meandered there. This hurricane was seeded by us, so Castro blamed the heavy death toll on America.

Oh, thanks for the info, Hydrus!
Nice for early September,,

Quoting Dakster:
Woops....

Shortly after 10 a.m., the Anchorage National Weather Service Office sent out a tsunami warning test for the Kenai Peninsula region over weather radio frequencies maintained by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The Kenai Peninsula sirens are designed to automatically interpret codes and tones from the NOAA radio messages. Although the automated message came across radio waves as a test, the code feeding into the sirens said something else -- causing the sirens to interpret it as an actual tsunami warning, said Kenai Peninsula Borough Office of Emergency Management program coordinator Dan Nelson.

Whoops indeed. I wonder where the problem actually lies. The NOAA weather radio system sends a digital data burst along with 1050Hz tone you hear when the radio alerts. This is what tells the radio (and other systems) the type of alert, like severe thunderstorm, tsunami, or test. They are sent by computer and test pretty regularly. It's hard to imagine the the NWS sent the test as a real warning. I wonder if the Kenai OEM system is not interpreting the codes correctly. Anyway, at least it wasn't a real tsunami, and that's the good part.
we will get a 2am report on the two tropical storms and the tropical wave maybe still at 30% at 2am
Quoting 531. hydrus:

Nice for early September,,


i do not think so!!
Quoting 524. allancalderini:

Mitch was over Tegucigalpa in November 1st that was the day I became 3. I don't remember if I made my party next week or two weeks later.
You were very little. I remember it well. I worked that night and had car trouble, but made it home before Mitch hit. The strongest winds were actually a couple hundred miles from the center. It was rather potent, and did some moderate damage around my neighborhood.

Good night and may we have peace someday.
Quoting 534. hurricanes2018:

i do not think so!!
Whadaya mean?..its classic,and even has the bowling ball
538. JRRP
Quoting hydrus:
Good night and may we have peace someday.
GN, Hydrus. One can only hope.
Quoting Thunderground:

I really don't want to quote your post because using rich text in the new site completely screws up the posting for those of us on Classic. Even worse, when someone quotes the warning, it becomes a big blue box of mostly unreadable text. It's even worse if you're using a tablet or smartphone. It's not your fault, it's just that the WU software doesn't handle rich text correctly. If you could post just the text of weather warnings in the future it would be appreciated by those of us on Classic or using mobile devices.
Quoting BayFog:
Now that Dolly has made landfall and will begin unraveling, does any of its moisture make it over the terrain and into Norbert?
It may. What's left will trek west and get caught up in Norbert's circulation. A stronger storm would definitely have more effect. Dolly is likely to be pretty wrecked by the time it gets to the west coast.
The shortwave IR satellite shows that the center Dolly has just come ashore in Mexico. As it goes west, a lot of the rain gets wrung out by the mountains, and this is the time of the most severe flooding and mudslides, as we've seen with other BOC storms. Dolly doesn't look like a particularly moisture laden storm for the area so we can only hope the effects further inland won't be as bad as some previous storms. Once again, I've got to give the NHC a thumbs up for their forecasting skill. Even with the center shifting around, the track has been pretty consistent with forecasts. The models generally did a good job as well once the storm became somewhat organized. It's always a little disheartening to see some here come up with some pretty odd scenarios based on a center moving around by 30 or 40 miles. If nothing else, this season should give people some confidence in the NHC forecasts. They've been better than any other season I can remember.

Quoting CosmicEvents:

Thank you MD Sar.
Where'd you get your degree?...Tuscany, Garmisch, Scirocco, Myanmaar, Petaluma, Lima, Grenada, Quito...etc., etc., etc...
As one of the millions on blood thinning medications I'm sticking with my own personal definition of open wounds and risk/reward vis a vis vibrio.
I was a paramedic for 14 years. You should stick with whatever definition of your health requirements that are based on what your doctor tells you. My post was general information, not directed at any individual.
547. JRRP
GN
Quoting 531. hydrus:

Nice for early September,,




ECMWF 00z agrees funneling down freezing 850mb temps into the upper Mid West.
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. A pleasant, if somewhat humid 72 degrees in my part of Louisiana. There was quite a storm early last night while we were having volunteer training at my school. We need the rain, but my heart went out to one Dad there especially as a very loud and sudden thunderclap had him decide he needed to leave. I teach on a military post. He just about hit the deck when it happened. Please keep our PTSD soldiers in your prayers, even a severe storm can be difficult for them.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: creamed chipped beef over biscuits, scrambled eggs with cheese and peppers, bagels with cream cheese and jelly or lox, cinnamon streusel coffee cake, omelets with cheese, mushrooms, peppers and dice ham or bacon, honey ham and sausage links, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Tea, Regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!
model concensus continues to move something that looks ominus towards the lesser Antilles. could it be the start of a very hot September.
Quoting 543. sar2401:

The shortwave IR satellite shows that the center Dolly has just come ashore in Mexico. As it goes west, a lot of the rain gets wrung out by the mountains, and this is the time of the most severe flooding and mudslides, as we've seen with other BOC storms. Dolly doesn't look like a particularly moisture laden storm for the area so we can only hope the effects further inland won't be as bad as some previous storms. Once again, I've got to give the NHC a thumbs up for their forecasting skill. Even with the center shifting around, the track has been pretty consistent with forecasts. The models generally did a good job as well once the storm became somewhat organized. It's always a little disheartening to see some here come up with some pretty odd scenarios based on a center moving around by 30 or 40 miles. If nothing else, this season should give people some confidence in the NHC forecasts. They've been better than any other season I can remember.




Had to work most of yesterday, but did get to check Sat a couple times. Sure looked like the center moved around by a bit more than 30-40 miles on a couple of occasions. At least once as it made the original reformation/move to the N and then a 2nd time as it looked like the original llc came on shore around or dissipated about 50 miles N of Tampico just off shore. The first N move can be seen on the tracking chart and it looks like a very smooth move when you just use forecast points. This, in large part, is due to the continuity system of forecasting.



Either way, it was an interesting system to watch evolve over BOC. Ultimately shear was too much for it to develop much which is a good thing for Mex. As you said, the NHC and the models did a good job handling the system as it moved around.
553. 7544
morning all nice blow up in the bahamas keeping one eye there on that ull could it be working its working its way down to spin up ?
Good Morning all..

getting interesting..

00z Navgem

last frame..
00z UKMET

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 13.0N 22.2W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 05.09.2014 13.0N 22.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

00UTC 06.09.2014 13.6N 25.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 06.09.2014 13.7N 27.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 07.09.2014 14.2N 30.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 07.09.2014 14.9N 33.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 08.09.2014 15.6N 36.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 08.09.2014 16.3N 39.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 09.09.2014 17.0N 42.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE


off of NC Coast.
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 32.8N 76.3W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 08.09.2014 33.3N 76.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 09.09.2014 33.7N 75.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
5.1 magnitude earthquake 37 km from George Town, Cayman Islands
about an hour ago

UTC time: Wednesday, September 03, 2014 10:01 AM
Your time: Wednesday, September 3 2014 6:01 AM

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/u sc000s98a#summary
Quoting nigel20:

Weak thunderstorm cell has developed over the island, with a light convection.



TUTT is dominating the weather in central and western Caribbean, strong low is centered over the Bahamas...

any chance this develops?????????
Quoting E46Pilot:
What is spinning off the coast of FL, over the Bahamas......and why is nobody talking about it?
i've noticed this spin on sunday, but can get anything on it hahah. rain for Me as it cross florida thursday, friday??????
ull's rarely develop but theyll spin spin and spin some more
Maybe the yellow x this morning or afternoon.
Quoting 404. Grothar:




Almost a storm on land??
15 day Euro EPS control starts to fish second Atlantic system, but it is at its strongest as it is heading North of Puerto Rico in general direction of Bermuda. Strong is relative, does not look like a beast.

Lower pressure n BoC in 10 days but doesn't look like an organized system.


10-15 days out, it might change.

GFS system next week I was interested in continues to look weaker and farther South, (maybe even in the Pacific) if it forms, GFS says it is in extreme Southern BoC, maybe Pacific, but it still has time to change.

Usual 2 week GFS fun in Gulf, probably headed to Florida, but at 2 weeks, hard to get excited.


Or, maybe a mid-Atlantic Edouard, but generally slow despite normal climatic peak. Par for the course for the slowest season since 1994.
Quoting sar2401:

Can you give me link to an official source of the 1933 ACE score? The only references I can find are a Wiki article on the 1933 season and blogs like the weatheradvance.com site where you got the graphs. There's a vague reference to the reanalysis project in Wiki but no link back there either. My understanding is that there are no official ACE scores before 1950 so I'm trying to understand where the 1933 score came from. BTW, the Wiki article on the 1933 season has a different ACE score than the weatheradvance.com charts show.

Link
getting that time of yr any group of clouds have the potential to develop.
0Z Euro is beginning to look more of what one would expect in El-Nino across the US. The Euro is showing cold front traversing the US every 2 days while focusing most of the heaviest rain across all of Florida and SE GA and maybe the coastal Carolina's. This is a big change from earlier runs.

If this pattern verifies as the Euro shows then we could be dealing with some pretty cold air coming south into the US.

Quoting 565. islander101010:

getting that time of yr any group of clouds have the potential to develop.


Not with this type of suppression. Peak of Hurricane Season and we have strong downward motion across most of the Atlantic Basin. Again my forecast of a system after September 15th in the Caribbean looks pretty good it seems.

Quoting 553. 7544:

morning all nice blow up in the bahamas keeping one eye there on that ull could it be working its working its way down to spin up ?



just a guess........would this be what was of 97L??
Quoting 565. islander101010:

getting that time of yr any group of clouds have the potential to develop.
Maybe we could talk someone in Miami to scoot out there with a flats boat, bottle of water, and a barometer to investigate. Hmmn,who here lives down there?
Quoting 570. Pallis1:
Maybe we could talk someone in Miami to scoot out there with a flats boat, bottle of water, and a barometer to investigate. Hmmn,who here lives down there?


It is he whose name must never be mentioned less you anger the WU gods.

Anyway, it does seem that ULL will provide beneficial rains to East central Florida this Thurs-Fri as it has been pretty dry here.It does not feel like this is the heart of the Hurricane season. It seems something put a stake in its heart.
Quoting 568. SFLWeatherman:





Models are showing a weak reflection moving up the east coast of FL the next 2 days.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Not with this type of suppression. Peak of Hurricane Season and we have strong downward motion across most of the Atlantic Basin. Again my forecast of a system after September 15th in the Caribbean looks pretty good it seems.



Scott, last week you also said we wouldn't see a system for the next couple weeks and we just had a tropical storm.

But I do agree with you that we will probably see another system in the near future. I don't think we will have to wait until the 15th though.



Quoting 575. Sfloridacat5:


Scott, last week you also said we wouldn't see a system for the next couple weeks and we just had a tropical storm.

But I do agree with you that we will probably see another system in the near future. I don't think we will have to wait until the 15th though.





Affirmative.
Quoting 562. HurricaneDevo:



Almost a storm on land??


Not impossible for a tropical cyclone to form while over Africa.
Tropical Storm Christine did so in 1973, however that is the only time that has happened. Link
Quoting 569. canelane23N75W:




just a guess........would this be what was of 97L??


No. It is between 500 and 200 mb, or mid and upper level.

If that can keep convection going long enough in the same spot, it can start lowering surface pressures and eventually releasing heat and turning the cold core low to a warm core low.

Slow process, rarely happens, but can happen. Canadian may develop a very weak low level reflection it moves into Florida, otherwise no model support or the ULL amounting to anything.

With Caribbean/Gulf system slowly looking less impressive, time to shift to the CV system. Suggestion of OTS now, but a week from now it could look different. Probably not. But maybe.
Quoting 575. Sfloridacat5:



Scott, last week you also said we wouldn't see a system for the next couple weeks and we just had a tropical storm.

But I do agree with you that we will probably see another system in the near future. I don't think we will have to wait until the 15th though.






LOL! 99L was a wild card. Infact JB did a post on this yesterday on how Dolly was upgraded when there was no center of circulation more less a wave axis. However last night right before landfall Dolly did have a defined COC. I know some are frustrated on here but there is a pretty significant amount of suppressed air that will be moving across the MDR over the next 10 days and I agree with TA13 that the models are jumping the gun with these African waves as they did last week. again don't shoot the messenger. Ready for Winter yet as we have a nice set up across the south this Winter with El-Nino. I suspect periods of snow from Houston to North Carolina is a good bet maybe even a chance across N FL come January.
Much wetter weather pattern across FL starting today. This is setting us up for a very wet September across all of FL from Pensacola to Miami which could last deep into October.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT...TODAY WILL BE THE TRANSITIONAL DAY BETWEEN THE
RELATIVELY DRY EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN THAT WE`VE BEEN IN FOR A FEW
DAYS AND A WETTER LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

THE MAIN PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE THE MID/UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY TROUGH
CURRENTLY SWINGING THROUGH THE NW BAHAMAS THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR
SHOWS AN INITIAL BAND OF MUCH DRIER AIR/SUPPRESSION OUT AHEAD OF IT
THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM SE TO NW DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY. BEHIND IT HOWEVER WILL BE AN INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE STARTING LATER THIS MORNING ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AND
OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE BETTER MOISTURE PROFILE...THE MOST NOTABLE
CHANGE WILL BE INCREASING DYNAMIC INSTABILITY TROUGH PUSHES INTO S
FL...ALLOWING SEVERAL VORT MAXES TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL FL LATE IN THE
DAY. THIS WILL BE IN ADDITION TO 500MB TEMPS COOLING TO -8/-9C AND
700MB TEMPS TO AROUND +8C.

BIGGEST QUESTION FOR POPS/STORM COVERAGE WILL BE HOW QUICKLY
ACTIVITY GETS GOING ALONG THE BREVARD/VOLUSIA COAST LATER THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL DRY AIR MOVING THROUGH THIS
MORNING IN COMBINATION WITH LATER ARRIVAL OF BETTER DYNAMICS
SUGGESTS BETTER CHANCES WEST OF I-95 AND INTERIOR AS SUPPORTED BY
HRRR. HAVE DROPPED BACK POPS TO ISOLD ALONG THESE IMMEDIATE COASTS
AND KEPT POPS 40-50 OVER THE INTERIOR WITH THE INLAND MOVING EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE BECOMING MORE ACTIVE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
AND PUSHING INTO THE TREASURE COAST WITH THE INITIAL PUSH OF THE
WAVE...SO WILL KEEP POPS 40-50 PERCENT IN THIS REGION INTO LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

PRESENCE OF THE WAVE WILL LIKELY KEEP ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS GOING
ALONG THE TREASURE COAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH COVERAGE INCREASING
OVER ALL THE COASTAL AREAS AND ADJACENT WATERS LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS WE GET ON THE MORE FAVORED SIDE OF THE WAVE. A FEW
STORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE INTERIOR AROUND SUNSET.

THU...AN UPPER LOW MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS WRN CUBA AND A MID LVL
INVERTED TROUGH MOVING OVER CENTRAL FL WILL AID IN INCREASING DEEP
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AND ALLOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
LIGHTNING STORMS TO DEVELOP FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. AREA WILL BE ON THE ASCENDANT SIDE OF THE LOW LVL EASTERLY
WAVE. WILL ADVERTISE 50 PCT RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF E CENTRAL FL
WITH 60 PCT OVER THE SRN INTERIOR. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR
WITH STRONGER STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH ARE EXPECTED AROUND 90
ALONG THE COAST AND LOWER 90S FOR THE INTERIOR.

FRI...LOW LVL SE WINDS ARE FORECAST WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTINUING
ACROSS CENTRAL FL. SHOULD STILL BE SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER LOW
NEAR WRN CUBA INTERIOR AREAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH
AROUND 50 PCT MOST AREAS BUT 40 PCT ALONG THE COAST WITH THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHING INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. COULD BE A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WITH 500 MB TEMPS COOLING TO AROUND -8 C. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ALONG THE COAST AND LOWER 90S FOR THE
INTERIOR.

SAT-SUN...THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL EXTEND WEST ACROSS CENTRAL FL OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN A MORE TYPICAL SEA BREEZE REGIME WITH LESS
INFLUENCE FROM UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AS THE MID LVL RIDGE REBUILDS
OVER THE STATE. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD MOVE INLAND EACH
AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WEST OF I-95
INTO THE INTERIOR BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. RAIN CHANCES
AROUND 30 CLOSE TO THE COAST AND 40-50 PERCENT FOR THE INTERIOR.
HIGHS AROUND 90 COAST TO AROUND 93 FOR THE INTERIOR ZONES.

MON-WED...APPEARS THE MID LVL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH LOW LVL SE WINDS FORECAST. THIS SHOULD AGAIN FAVOR
THE INTERIOR FOR AFTERNOON STORMS WITH THE INLAND MOVING DIFFUSE
EAST COAST BREEZE. MOISTURE LEVELS LOOK TO DIMINISH SOME SO WILL
FORECAST RAIN CHANCES 30 PCT COASTAL TO 40 PCT FOR THE INTERIOR. NOT
MUCH DAY TO DAY CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED WITH AROUND 90 COAST
TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND.
Here is a new realtime worldwide weather map.

Link
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


LOL! 99L was a wild card. Infact JB did a post on this yesterday on how Dolly was upgraded when there was no center of circulation more less a wave axis. However last night right before landfall Dolly did have a defined COC. I know some are frustrated on here but there is a pretty significant amount of suppressed air that will be moving across the MDR over the next 10 days and I agree with TA13 that the models are jumping the gun with these African waves as they did last week. again don't shoot the messenger. Ready for Winter yet as we have a nice set up across the south this Winter with El-Nino. I suspect periods of snow from Houston to North Carolina is a good bet maybe even a chance across N FL come January.


Plain and simple, you were wrong we got a system when you said we wouldnt. Just remember that you dont have a crystal ball! Which also goes with your 'snow in N FL this winter'. Thats pretty wild bubba to be saying its going to snow in FL and its September 3rd lol. Keep throwin those darts!
Also, please remember that El Nino is not a given this winter. The fact is, we have to see 3 consecutive months at 0.5C and we dont even have 1 yet. So i can do the math for you. If lets say we get to 0.5C in October, then we wouldnt even get an official El Nino til December AT THE EARLIEST. Now...give that the values in the 3 and 3.4 region are now falling again, and are nowhere near steady above the 0.5C threshold, El Nino is not a given.



Wet weather pattern setting across the SE US and this matches the CFS very well.




Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Wet weather pattern setting across the SE US and this matches the CFS very well.






Well, this is one thing we can agree on. It does look wet for the SE next 7 days.

Quoting 583. StormWx:



Plain and simple, you were wrong we got a system when you said we wouldnt. Just remember that you dont have a crystal ball! Which also goes with your 'snow in N FL this winter'. Thats pretty wild bubba to be saying its going to snow in FL and its September 3rd lol. Keep throwin those darts!


StormWx is Right On- We need to STOP playing the Guess game and the Seemingly Oh so confident -Meteorological Prognoses, when in fact its quite evident that Universal weather Forecasting and prediction is not an exact science in the least! No Meteorological Omniscience Ever exists. Unpredictable in its nature sums it up rather precisely...

May God continue to Bless us All this Hurricane Season!
Quoting 585. StormTrackerScott:

Wet weather pattern setting across the SE US and this matches the CFS very well.







It is September in the Southeast. 40-60% rain chances are pretty much common.
Quoting 585. StormTrackerScott:

Wet weather pattern setting across the SE US and this matches the CFS very well.







GM Scott:) I can say NC has been stuck in that wet pattern all summer just iike last summer..that wouldn't prove an El Nino is coming at least not for us..that map is just showing a low pressure the models have been showing that will track across the SE in the next upcoming days..

Quoting 578. EdMahmoud:



No. It is between 500 and 200 mb, or mid and upper level.

If that can keep convection going long enough in the same spot, it can start lowering surface pressures and eventually releasing heat and turning the cold core low to a warm core low.

Slow process, rarely happens, but can happen. Canadian may develop a very weak low level reflection it moves into Florida, otherwise no model support or the ULL amounting to anything.

With Caribbean/Gulf system slowly looking less impressive, time to shift to the CV system. Suggestion of OTS now, but a week from now it could look different. Probably not. But maybe.




1016.3 mb and rising slowly 1.9..............still no boating today!! we had a 30 mph squall yesterday when this weather came in, the guests on board experienced a tropical event for sure!!

lots of thunder coming out of this storm this morning and clouds are standing still...looks like they are awaiting orders............needless to say the water we swam in yesterday was too warm..........scary warm.



looking very good to far this tropical wave guys
Quoting 543. sar2401:

The shortwave IR satellite shows that the center Dolly has just come ashore in Mexico. As it goes west, a lot of the rain gets wrung out by the mountains, and this is the time of the most severe flooding and mudslides, as we've seen with other BOC storms. Dolly doesn't look like a particularly moisture laden storm for the area so we can only hope the effects further inland won't be as bad as some previous storms. Once again, I've got to give the NHC a thumbs up for their forecasting skill. Even with the center shifting around, the track has been pretty consistent with forecasts. The models generally did a good job as well once the storm became somewhat organized. It's always a little disheartening to see some here come up with some pretty odd scenarios based on a center moving around by 30 or 40 miles. If nothing else, this season should give people some confidence in the NHC forecasts. They've been better than any other season I can remember.




I quite agree with your sentiments- the NHC has been fairly accurate and highly professional in their forecasting, issuance and classifications of systems thus far in the Atlantic basin for 2014.
They must be commended and appreciation shown for a diligent and competent show of their meteorological skills in conjunction with the models and other weather resources...
anyone still watching the tropical wave coming off of AFRICAN COAST by thursday
Quoting 589. ncstorm:



GM Scott:) I can say NC has been stuck in that wet pattern all summer just iike last summer..that wouldn't prove an El Nino is coming at least not for us..that map is just showing a low pressure the models have been showing that will track across the SE in the next upcoming days..




What appears to happening is the SE ridge will continue to hold while a deep trough begins to re establish itself across the midwest again. What this will do is re introduce a SW flow across coastal SE US pulling deep moisture from the Gulf & Caribbean.
Quoting 587. NatureIsle:



StormWx is Right On- We need to STOP playing the Guess game and the Seemingly Oh so confident -Meteorological Prognoses, when in fact its quite evident that Universal weather Forecasting and prediction is not an exact science in the least! No Meteorological Omniscience Ever exists. Unpredictable in its nature sums it up rather precisely...

May God continue to Bless us All this Hurricane Season!


From JB

CFSV2 GOES THE WAY OF DOLPHIN 2 ( FLIPPER)
September 3 07:56 AM

I am morbidly fascinated with this new Dolphin Movie coming out, Dolphin 2. I was a big fan of Flipper when I was a kid. Apparently so is the CFSV2 as its flipping around and fast on the winter.
20 days ago, the 10 day CFSV2 for Jan looked like this

Interesting article in the Washington Post by the Capital Weather gang on trusting long range winter forecasts at this time of the year. I was quoted, the quote was okay, but chopped into 3 pieces, which sort of watered down my message
So can you trust them?
First of all, if they turned out right, then you could have trusted them. So when someone says, no you cant do it, that is arrogance on their part. If someone does it, then it means it can be done
But certain years seem more predictable than others. If you create a flow chart of how you expect the weather to go and then it does, chances are you are on the right part. Some years are tougher than others. Joe D Aleo was talking with a major competitor of ours that as of December, said the worst of winter was by us and that there would be some cold in the northern plains but the rest of the nation would be warmer... and by March all the nation was warm. That is what they said. When they talked to Joe, they said they nailed the winter, and that north Pacific warm pool, which we jumped on last year had nothing to do with the winter. I guess if you are going to be that way, then no matter what happens you are right. So that type of forecast is always right, no matter what. I was tweet spatting one of their forecasters the last week of Dec when he showed the GFS ensembles blow torching the US and was trying to blame the MJO, which was rendered useless last winter because of the magnitude of the warmth in the north Pacific distorting the whole pattern. That is why the MJO would try to come out and collapse. But the point is that in the end the best you can do is put out your idea when you want to and then see what happens. If you hit it, then yes, you can forecast it, if not then you cant
Its like someone saying no one could hit Bob Fellers fastball, or Carltons slider. Well someone must have hit it, most likely the best hitters in the game.
Now what goes through my head after a lousy forecast? ( 01-02, 11-12, Jan 2006 and by the way all those years the forecast by me was nowhere near the worst out there as, there were forecasts for very cold conditions in other circles and I took normals)
1 Someone else likely saw it
2 What did I do wrong
What doesnt go through my mind is what my partner had to deal with. He is much more rational than I, cause chances are if it was me, their forecasts would have been shoved right back in their face, and the table would have been overturned, me thrown out of the eatery. And I watched Flipper when I was young, a very gentle program.
I think its important, to improve to confront what went wrong, rather than try to spin wrong into right. I have had alot of experience with the former, confronting being wrong, so perhaps its why I am the way I am. As far as spinning wrong into right, one of the reasons I am at Weatherbell is because we cant do that. The most we try to do is show prospective clients what we had, and ask them if you had that information, would it benefit you?. But if I hear or see something ( In Joe's Case, I mailed him the entire sordid details of what was said and when) then I will say something. In the end you, or in the case of commercial, which is much more direct than some of the ramblings you see here where I where my heart of my sleeve, the answer is simple.. Is it worth what we charge. If not, then you don't buy it.
We have had our winter idea out since April. On Sept 3, I dont see the reason to change it. If it captures what the winter did, then yes, from April, we had it. If not, its highly likely that someone else did. But simply saying no, someone cant do it means one thing to me
Speak for yourself
Quoting 566. StormTrackerScott:

0Z Euro is beginning to look more of what one would expect in El-Nino across the US. The Euro is showing cold front traversing the US every 2 days while focusing most of the heaviest rain across all of Florida and SE GA and maybe the coastal Carolina's. This is a big change from earlier runs.

If this pattern verifies as the Euro shows then we could be dealing with some pretty cold air coming south into the US.


the cold front is in mid-west not the northeast ones the cold front move to the east coast is going to be weak


we will have a invest 90L IN 36 hours from now!
Quoting 591. hurricanes2018:




looking very good to far this tropical wave guys
starting to look like a t.d now.
Quoting 587. NatureIsle:



StormWx is Right On- We need to STOP playing the Guess game and the Seemingly Oh so confident -Meteorological Prognoses, when in fact its quite evident that Universal weather Forecasting and prediction is not an exact science in the least! No Meteorological Omniscience Ever exists. Unpredictable in its nature sums it up rather precisely...

May God continue to Bless us All this Hurricane Season!


This looks fun!

January


February


March
Thanks Al for making us all look like a bunch of rookies:

Link

wait till the dreaded curse of the mid atlantic gets to our african tropical wave. i think it will struggle but stay alive just enough so our bloggers will have to keep on their toes.
Quoting 596. hurricanes2018:

the cold front is in mid-west not the northeast ones the cold front move to the east coast is going to be weak
Well every so often we do get a freeze reaching down into central florida,hasnt happened in quite a while by me here..one year long ago i lost alot of tropicals to a freeze.


this tropical wave will be a tropical storm in 120 hours from now
P27L in 120 hours based on the GFS model. Well developed circulation in progress.

Quoting hurricanes2018:


this tropical wave will be a tropical storm in 120 hours from now


Too funny. We both posted about P27L at the same time (120 hours too).
i just hope somehow that stomrtrackerscott is right about florida rain. i dont know about other florida bloggers but in riverview its been hot and dry. not the normal rainy season. rainy season starts to wind down in a few months so im looking forward to some rain to break the heat. we also need a storm to break up the red tide.... dead fish now washing ashore in northern pinellas county/honeymoon island and moving south.
Quoting intampa:
i just hope somehow that stomrtrackerscott is right about florida rain. i dont know about other florida bloggers but in riverview its been hot and dry. not the normal rainy season. rainy season starts to wind down in a few months so im looking forward to some rain to break the heat. we also need a storm to break up the red tide.... dead fish now washing ashore in northern pinellas county/honeymoon island and moving south.


We've been pretty dry for the past week down here at my location in S. Fort Myers. We had some strong storms out by the beach yesterday, but most of the rain missed my location.

I did get 13" for the month of August in my weather station so that's pretty close to average for my area.

But it's so hot this time of year that everything dries out quickly. Just a few days without rain and our plants/flowers, etc. start dying.
There's that blob I was threatening FL with..

Quoting 610. Skyepony:

There's that blob I was threatening FL with..


yes NWS is saying might be some strong storms for south florida thru friday
612. SRQfl

Maybe the ULL SE of FL can work down to the surface and blow the red tide bloom away from W CFL.
Quoting 610. Skyepony:
There's that blob I was threatening FL with..



That should break the heat for most of Florida. Though- it isn't a blob unless Grothar, certified blobologist, offcially states so.
8-)
For a brief respite, here are a couple of shots from the ongoing fissure eruption at Iceland's Bardarbunga volcano. I especially like the pyrocumulus cloud in the bottom image. For scale, note that the crack from which lava is bursting forth is roughly half a mile in length.





Images copyright by and courtesy of Einar Gudmann - WWW.GUDMANN.IS
Quoting Skyepony:
There's that blob I was threatening FL with..



ULL is moving into the Florida region today. That should add some energy to the afternoon storms.

With the easterly flow across southern Florida, the west coast should see some strong storms later this afternoon when the sea breeze sets up.
But almost anywhere could see some activity today.
Tropical Storm Norbert is approaching hurricane intensity this morning. The shear that was plaguing it has weakened (which was not forecast by the SHIPS), so it looks like this could become a potent hurricane like the HWRF suggested days ago.

06z run

Quoting 617. ncstorm:

06z run


did'nt one model have a tropical something off the carolina's sometime this weekend?
Quoting 612. SRQfl:


Maybe the ULL SE of FL can work down to the surface and blow the red tide bloom away from W CFL.

alot of dead fish washing up onto the beaches because that red tide is killing the fish
Quoting 615. Sfloridacat5:



ULL is moving into the Florida region today. That should add some energy to the afternoon storms.

With the easterly flow across southern Florida, the west coast should see some strong storms later this afternoon when the sea breeze sets up.
But almost anywhere could see some activity today.


500mb temps are expected to cool to around -9C which is much colder than a couple of days ago. Storms should be widespread come later this afternoon.



Already very high cape across the interior of FL.

Quoting 618. LargoFl:

did'nt one model have a tropical something off the carolina's sometime this weekend?


Euro/CMC/UKMET..weak though..
500mb relative humidity for the June-July-August period was the lowest on record in the tropical Atlantic:


(Image from AmericanWx)
Good morning fellow weather bloggers. I hope you all have been getting along on here. I just have a quick question.

Since I don't have easy access to the ECWMF model runs, does the ECWMF hint on a big mid September cool down like the GFS has been hinting?

Sorry to bother, I'm just curious?
Found this about ull's becoming tropical...


"Often upper level low pressure systems dive south into the Gulf of Mexico or southwest tropical or subtropical Atlantic. These can be very intense at twenty to forty thousand feet and can cause a large mass of showers and thunderstorms to form along their eastern quads. If they persist over tropical or subtropical waters they can at times begin to develop showers and thunderstorms that are more widespread and the mid and upper level low pressure begins to descend to the sea surface and form low pressure there. If t-storms persist and they are collocated with an area of surface low they can eventually become a subtropical or tropical cyclones. This process takes many days, as constant convection near the circulation core acts to heat the atmosphere and in response a LLC forms and continues to feed from convective feedback and thus a warm core cyclone develops".

Here's a website I found regarding the ull that is forecast to come thru Florida today thru Friday... Link
625. SRQfl
Quoting 619. LargoFl:

alot of dead fish washing up onto the beaches because that red tide is killing the fish
Yes, and the bloom is still pretty far offshore even. I hope it stays out there or we get a storm sometime before its too late. Sarasota Bay estuaries cannot handle a large fish kill right now, we get it bad every year almost. The little baby grommets in the bay need a chance to grow up...and hit a dinner plate eventually...
Quoting 622. TropicalAnalystwx13:
500mb relative humidity for the June-July-August period was the lowest on record in the tropical Atlantic:


(Image from AmericanWx)


That's a pretty interesting graph and shows a clear long-term trend in addition to the short-term drop you mentioned.
Quoting 623. Tornado6042008X:

Good morning fellow weather bloggers. I hope you all have been getting along on here. I just have a quick question.

Since I don't have easy access to the ECWMF model runs, does the ECWMF hint on a big mid September cool down like the GFS has been hinting?

Sorry to bother, I'm just curious?


yes, it does infact every 2 days starting this weekend cold fronts start moving east across the US with the one at days 9 & 10 having some pretty cold air with it with 30's across the upper midwest for lows.
Quoting 598. hurricanes2018:

starting to look like a t.d now.
Too far away.Do you think this one can survive all the way to the carib.?
ULL off SE coast of Florida has nice symmetry. If it can develop a LLC forget about it cuz warm sea surface temperatures are mid to high 80s. Tons of potential energy. My 2 cents
Just a question about Thunderstorm mass on SE florida coast. I seem to see a circulation north of cuba but then I see one near NW Bahamas too. Can this be a LLC developing?


hey stormy.......i use this graph as do many here...but you have to remember....the CPC does not...last week the CPC gave the weekly reading for the 3.4 area a 0.4c above average.....as you can see from this graph.......there were no readings that high.....
Quoting 627. StormTrackerScott:



yes, it does infact every 2 days starting this weekend cold fronts start moving east across the US with the one at days 9 & 10 having some pretty cold air with it with 30's across the upper midwest for lows.
I love people from Florida,they are so smart.












Quoting 626. TimSoCal:



That's a pretty interesting graph and shows a clear longthat explains quite a bit about the activity me when it starts going back up lookout-term trend in addition to the short-term drop you mentioned.
That explains quite a bit about the lack of activity in the Atlantic. When that starts to go back up Look Out!
This is thru 7/31 but you can see SW FL has had a dry year so far. Orlando is near 40" after 7" in August.

Quoting 626. TimSoCal:



That's a pretty interesting graph and shows a clear long-term trend in addition to the short-term drop you mentioned.

Anything before the 1970s is suspect because polar orbiting satellites were not in operation, but yeah, there's been a clear decline in 500mb RH over the tropical Atlantic during the past few decades.
A difference of 20" of rain from Miami to Naples & Fort Myers area so far this year.
I love people from Florida,they are so smart.

obviously you have never lived there :-) ta da da boom!
Quoting 636. ricderr:




Well see how that verifies as some of the models are unloading the cold air by days 8 to 10. This same pattern happened last year as well come mid September and it stayed in place thru a good chunk of 2014. That being the mid west trough.
Quoting 628. prcane4you:
Too far away.Do you think this one can survive all the way to the carib.?
It may be improbable but not impossible. Ivan developed not too far off the African coast and moved straight through the Caribbean into the GOM. It was also around this time he developed.
Quoting 640. ricderr:

I love people from Florida,they are so smart.

obviously you have never lived there :-) ta da da boom!


Better to live here than El-Paso. Ta da da da da boom!!!
Quoting 622. TropicalAnalystwx13:

500mb relative humidity for the June-July-August period was the lowest on record in the tropical Atlantic:


(Image from AmericanWx)


Perhaps it's due the lack of strong-very strong El Ninos (Click To Enlarge)?



Every decade since the 50s there's been at least one strong-very strong El Nino. But during the 2000s, there were only moderate ones. Not sure what else could be a factor in the decrease of humidity.
Quoting 622. TropicalAnalystwx13:

500mb relative humidity for the June-July-August period was the lowest on record in the tropical Atlantic:


(Image from AmericanWx)


That plot has been trending down since it started, yet the 2000s were more active than the 70s and 80s.

Not sure how pre-satellite era 500 mb RH was measured with any great accuracy over the open ocean.
A good analog IMO for this Winter is the 2002/2003 winter across the US.

President's Day storm of 2003

The image to the left from NOAA's National Weather Service Northeast River Forecast Center shows snowfall totals in the Northeast for the snow event on the 16th and 17th February 2003. Well over a foot (30.5 cm) of snow fell across almost the entire state of Massachusetts, and much of the rest of southern New England and New York. However, the storm covered in snow an area from Kentucky to Connecticut on the 16th and 17th and at least 10 deaths have been attributed to the storm (Reuters). Some of the largest accumulations from the President's Day Storm occurred in and around New York City with Central Park receiving 19.8 inches (50.3cm) from the storm. This makes February 2003 the fourth snowiest February in Central Park with the total so far (as of the 18th) standing at 26.1 inches (66.3 cm) for February 2003. This total is also nearing the snowiest month of all time which was March 1896 with 30.5 inches (77.5 cm). Boston received a remarkable 27.5 inches (69.9 cm) of snow - the largest snowfall total for any storm in the city since records began.
The storm left portions of the Southeast contending with ice and sleet instead of snow, and travel conditions were dangerous across large portions of the Carolinas and Georgia over the President's Day weekend. Airport delays across the entire eastern seaboard left thousands of travelers stranded over the Sunday 16th-Tuesday 18th period.

This Nor-easter hit December 23rd thru the 25th

major winter storm affected much of the eastern United States during December 23-25, 2002. Significant accumulations of snow were reported from the Texas panhandle, through Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri and northern Arkansas during the 23rd-24th, causing 12 deaths (Associated Press). Springfield, MO reported 33cm (13 inches) of snow, or 52 cm (20.5 inches) for the month, for a new December snowfall record. Snow spread eastward from parts of the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast on Christmas Day, with some locations experiencing the snowiest Christmas Day ever recorded.
Quoting 632. ricderr:



hey stormy.......i use this graph as do many here...but you have to remember....the CPC does not...last week the CPC gave the weekly reading for the 3.4 area a 0.4c above average.....as you can see from this graph.......there were no readings that high.....


The CPC calculates the mean over a coarser SST grid (ERSST.v3b) than the CDAS data I use. This can smooth out their anomaly field relative to mine. The ENSO region is often filled with small-scale eddies of warm and cold water, so the different grids can easily cause our values to differ.
Quoting WeatherConvoy:
Just a question about Thunderstorm mass on SE florida coast. I seem to see a circulation north of cuba but then I see one near NW Bahamas too. Can this be a LLC developing?


Seems unlikely at this point....
There is no vorticity at the surface


With the 500mb velocity quite elongated


Although, what it does have going for it is increasing low level convergence


And increasing upper level divergence
Checking in from NW FL...

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Ok, now what do we do?
Invest by today, definitely. Code orange by today definitely.
Quoting 622. TropicalAnalystwx13:

500mb relative humidity for the June-July-August period was the lowest on record in the tropical Atlantic:


(Image from AmericanWx)


But ... but ... I thought there was 10% more WV bad Mojo in the Atmo?
Year to date precipitation 43.15 Average 41.30

Quoting 639. StormTrackerScott:

A difference of 20" of rain from Miami to Naples & Fort Myers area so far this year.
Quoting EdMahmoud:


That plot has been trending down since it started, yet the 2000s were more active than the 70s and 80s.

Not sure how pre-satellite era 500 mb RH was measured with any great accuracy over the open ocean.


It's not a linear decrease in RH, you'll note that 1995 had a huge spike in RH, followed by another huge spike after the 1997 El Nino event in 1998-2000. We can expect more spikes like that in the future, and thus active hurricane seasons, but the general trend is downwards imo.
Quoting 657. CybrTeddy:



It's not a linear decrease in RH, you'll note that 1995 had a huge spike in RH, followed by another huge spike after the 1997 El Nino event in 1998-2000. We can expect more spikes like that in the future, and thus active hurricane seasons, but the general trend is downwards imo.


Of course it spikes up and down, but look at the RH of the inactive 70s and 80s versus the 2000s. 2005 should have been slower than the 70s and 80s. And again, pre-satellite era, was a network of ships releasing balloons all over the tropical Atlantic on a daily basis?
Quoting 653. FBMinFL:



But ... but ... I thought there was 10% more WV bad Mojo in the Atmo?
The problem is that when you increase the temps of the atmosphere it can hold more water vapor but that doesn't necessarily increase the RH -- in fact as we see it can actually decrease. But if it gets cooled to its former temperature -- watch out!
Looks like that ULL over the Bahamas may have worked its way down and picked up some convection -=- that's a pretty suspicious-looking bit there now.
Norbert continued to rapidly intensify through about 06Z. Since
then, the hurricane appears to have peaked in intensity, with the
eye becoming less distinct and the cold cloud tops in the eyewall
becoming asymmetric.