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Invest 99L Organizing Over Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:22 PM GMT on September 01, 2014

The center of a broad area of low pressure associated with tropical wave 99L is now over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, and the disturbance is growing more organized as it heads west-northwest at about 10 mph. Heavy rains are falling over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and southeastern Bay of Campeche coast, and radar loops out of Sabancuy, Mexico show a pronounced rotation to the echoes. Satellite loops on Monday morning showed the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity was increasing in intensity and organization, with a number of low-level spiral bands beginning to form. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) were very warm, near 30°C (86°F), the atmosphere was moist, and wind shear was moderate, 15 - 20 knots. These conditions are favorable for development. The 8 am Monday run of the SHIPS model predicted that conditions will remain favorable for development over Bay of Campeche through Thursday, with moderate wind shear, a moist atmosphere, and warm SSTs of 30°C (86°F.) None of our three reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation showed 99L developing into Tropical Storm Dolly in their Monday morning runs. However, I expect that 99L will be at least a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 99L 2-day development odds into a tropical cyclone of 60% (a tropical cyclone is a generic term for all tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.) The storm should continue to track to the west-northwest or northwest, with landfall occurring on the Mexican coast several hundred miles south of the Texas border on Tuesday or Wednesday morning. This likely will not give the storm time to intensify into a hurricane, though landfall as a strong tropical storm would not be a surprise. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft has been tasked to investigate 99L on Monday afternoon.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 99L in the Western Caribbean.

New African tropical wave this weekend may develop
Our three reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation all show development by Saturday of a tropical wave expected to come off the coast of Africa on Friday. This wave will be capable of bringing heavy rain and strong winds to the Cape Verde Islands on Friday and Saturday.

Eastern Pacific's 93E a potential threat to Baja
In the Eastern Pacific, tropical disturbance Invest 93E is gathering strength a few hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico. In their Monday morning runs, both the GFS and European models predicted that 93E would develop into a tropical storm late this week, and pass very close to the tip of Mexico's Baja Peninsula on Friday. Satellite loops show that 93E is poorly organized today, and I expect that the earliest the disturbance would become a tropical depression is Wednesday. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93E 2-day and 5-day odd of development of 20% and 70%, respectively.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 476. ryang:

When is the next RECON into TD 5?

Plan is to take-off at 10:30 EST tonite.
They'll be in the cyclone area between 1AM-7:30AM EST if needed.
One can see that overall CoC in the Short Wave IR Loop..

Now that the center looks to be fixed North of where the NHC had it, and based on satellite images looks like many here are right; could give this just enough time to reach minimum hurricane status before landfall in Northern Mexico. Low shear now and convection beginning to wrap, this could surprise. Hard to see this ever getting above 80mph with just over 24 hours left over water.
Quoting 469. TropicalAnalystwx13:


1977.
1977 was a very slow year, but cat-5 Anita was vicious, and hit near area where T.D. is heading..
Hurricane Anita on September 2, 1977, approaching the Gulf coast of Mexico.
Formed August 29, 1977
Dissipated September 4, 1977
Highest winds 1-minute sustained: 175 mph (280 km/h)
Lowest pressure 926 mbar 27.34 in.
Fatalities 11 direct
Areas affected Northeastern Mexico
Quoting 467. sar2401:

Maybe because it wasn't a country back then, just a possession of Portugal? I don't really know how that term came about. Seems like the could be named "African Easterly Wind" hurricanes and be just as accurate. They've always been called Cape Verde storms in my weather memory, which is reasonably coherent back to about 1960, so they must of gotten the name before then. I can't find anything on the net about the etiology, just variations of that definition I posted.

But Cape Verde is a significant geographical feature, separate from the islands, which are named AFTER the cape. And the country that occupies the Cape Verde Islands insists that, even in English, it is not to be called "Cape Verde", but "Cabo Verde" or "Republic of Cabo Verde". It's all peculiar when it should be so simple.
Quoting StormJunkie:


It already is taking advantage of it. Noticed the shear on vis obviously dropping. The excessive heat content where 05 is leaves for a little wiggle room for intensification above what has been forcast.
The convection is increasing tonight and seems to want to wrap around the center. If it actually does a DMax thing, then it will be time to look at the intensity again. Given the past performance of 2014 storms, I'm not betting the mortgage this time. Just like wandering centers, it would be nice to have a storm clearly intensifying instead of breathing in, getting hyperventilated, and then passing out.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


I am trying really hard to see it, but I do not see a circulation at 20N
Probably more like 20.5 now but that big band of clouds is wrapping around the center. It's not any further north than 21 to my eyes, but we'll have another recon flight in about 6 hours to have another look.
Tornado going on just east of Arkansas City, Kansas from my friend Jason:

Quoting DeepSeaRising:
Now that the center looks to be fixed North of where the NHC had it, and based on satellite images looks like many here are right; could give this just enough time to reach minimum hurricane status before landfall in Northern Mexico. Low shear now and convection beginning to wrap, this could surprise. Hard to see this ever getting above 80mph with just over 24 hours left over water.
You're such an optimist. :-)
Quoting 499. sar2401:

Under that recent blowup in convection? Might be, since these weak storms do have the center wiggle around some. I could accept that. We had some folks earlier that were saying more like 23N, 92W. Not only couldn't I see it but the recon reports are what's used to place the center, and they are never off by that much. This reminds of Bertha and Cristobal all over again. Just once, it would be nice to have a storm where the center of the low was immediately obvious to us. Of all the things having to do with tropical storms, wandering ghost centers are near the bottom of the fun list. :-)


Even when recon was in there, I felt like the dominant area was to the NNE of the fixes. It was most likely mid-level at that point as recon clearly did not support a center where I thought it was from vis. 23N 92W is a bit excessive. But I also don't think it is where the 00z initialization had it.



Thinking we may have a clear cut center to track on this one before too long.
Quoting 472. Envoirment:



The 1977 hurricane season had the first 5 named systems become hurricanes. That season ended with 6-5-1.


Thanks I didn't know that was the year.
The t wave machine is in full swing..
.
Quoting BayFog:

But Cape Verde is a significant geographical feature, separate from the islands, which are named AFTER the cape. And the country that occupies the Cape Verde Islands insists that, even in English, it is not to be called "Cape Verde", but "Cabo Verde" or "Republic of Cabo Verde". It's all peculiar when it should be so simple.
Yeah, I know. It has never really made sense to me. In my mind, it's always been a storm which come off or started somewhere near Cap Verde which, as you say, is a prominent geographical feature even if the islands weren't there. Seems like one of those made up terms that no ever provided a precises definition for while they were in the process.
Should get another Windsat and SSMIS image of 05 before too long. Here's to hoping they don't miss it.
Quoting 511. sar2401:

You're such an optimist. :-)


True enough Sar, been trying to trend towards realist. Conditions are quite favorable, shear, SST's, convection build, and really only dry air somewhat of an issue and the obvious lack of time over water. Could reach minimum 75-80mph hurricane but more likely 55-65mph TS. I'm a realist in every other area of my life except tropical weather. Good to dream a little.
Same tornado from storm chaser friend Brandon Ivey:

Recon should be taking off around 10:30 eastern if they didnt cancel it
Quoting 497. Patrap:

Toasty and juicy,


If I were a hurricane, i would be in the Western Caribbean wit me anticyclone hat on, soakin up that hot water, with sustained at 250, and gusts 300. Baro at 25.00 in.....i would stay out to sea..dont wanna mess up anybodies house..:)..pfft
Quoting StormJunkie:


Even when recon was in there, I felt like the dominant area was to the NNE of the fixes. It was most likely mid-level at that point as recon clearly did not support a center where I thought it was from vis. 23N 92W is a bit excessive. But I also don't think it is where the 00z initialization had it.



Thinking we may have a clear cut center to track on this one before too long.
I think the general track direction itself is pretty clear. The only question is if a new fix will end up moving it slightly to the right or left. It might make a five knot difference in intensity, but this is still going to Mexico, just south or north of Tampico now.
Quoting 520. hydrus:

If I were a hurricane, i would be in the Western Caribbean wit me anticyclone hat on, soakin up that hot water, with sustained at 250, and gusts 300. Baro at 25.00 in.....i would stay out to sea..dont wanna mess up anybodies house..:)..pfft


The warm water runs deeper in the Carib; but the BOC is a little warmer. Don't think depth of warm water will matter a whole lot in this case. 40-60' deep should be almost as good as 140' since there haven't been previous systems running over the area.

Convection near the Center- maybe they'll find 35 knot winds on the late night/early morning recon fix.

Quoting 514. hydrus:

The t wave machine is in full swing..
.
nice tropical wave will hit the water in a few days from now.
Quoting 521. sar2401:

I think the general track direction itself is pretty clear. The only question is if a new fix will end up moving it slightly to the right or left. It might make a five knot difference in intensity, but this is still going to Mexico, just south or north of Tampico now.


Agree it will end up in Mex. That said, should it be further N and E than the current fix, and should it wander 50-100 miles north of current landfall per models...The difference in time over water may make a difference on the intensity.

Center is way north of the NHC track.
1965 was a slow year too, but Betsy did horrible damage to Florida and Louisiana..



First system formed June 11, 1965
Last system dissipated October 19, 1965
Strongest storm Betsy – 941 mbar (27.8 inHg), 155 mph (250 km/h) (1-minute sustained)
Total depressions 6
Total storms 6
Hurricanes 4
Major hurricanes (Cat. 3+) 1
Total fatalities 81
Total damage $1.45 billion (1965 USD)




This image shows Hurricane Betsy in the Gulf of Mexico in September of 1965 as taken by the TIROS VIII weather satellite.
Betsy was my First Major.

I was 5.78 at the time.

Long Night.

Eye,..then Longer night.

I may be crazy but...it looks like it's trying to draw moisture in from FLA and LA. (Just have to say I'm enjoying some fabulous grilled Boudin from Don's Meat Market in Scott, LA. Tasty!!!)
531. silas

Quoting DeepSeaRising:
Now that the center looks to be fixed North of where the NHC had it, and based on satellite images looks like many here are right; could give this just enough time to reach minimum hurricane status before landfall in Northern Mexico. Low shear now and convection beginning to wrap, this could surprise. Hard to see this ever getting above 80mph with just over 24 hours left over water.
Honestly I'm having a really hard time seeing that happening at this point. There's a lot of dry air to the north and west, which is where it's going, and that dry air is keeping convection from firing in that area. The SST's and wind shear aren't really problematic for it at all, but I think that if the dry air prevails, this storm will remain fairly lopsided and will likely have trouble getting above 50-60mph before landfall.

Quoting 529. Patrap:

Betsy was my First Major.

I was 5.78


Me too Pat! Just turned 5. No body evacuated N.O. back then...


Betsy was my First Major.

I was 5.78


i was being made in the Keys according to my parents..:)

Tornado on the ground near Cedar Vale, KS - taken from James Carnes video! *seek shelter! #kswx @NWSWichita
@chaserchick17
Quoting DeepSeaRising:


True enough Sar, been trying to trend towards realist. Conditions are quite favorable, shear, SST's, convection build, and really only dry air somewhat of an issue and the obvious lack of time over water. Could reach minimum 75-80mph hurricane but more likely 55-65mph TS. I'm a realist in every other area of my life except tropical weather. Good to dream a little.
LOL. You've improved a lot since Arthur in that respect. I've said it bofre...well, really wrote it before...that I just don't think SST's are as important as they're cracked up to be. Once we're at 28, another 2 or 3 degrees isn't going to change things very much. The most important things that hinder development are dry air and shear. Both of these are locally influence, so conditions may be better or worse than our big charts show. Dr. Masters wrote a piece on this once and it doesn't take a large amount of dry air to disrupt a weak system. I can see more dry air showing up on the WV loop, but that's in the upper atmosphere, and there might be more (or less) dry air at lower levels we don't see. Kind of the same with shear, where local shear will influence a storm more strongly than shown on a shear chart.

I came across an interesting article while I was hunting around on the web instead of doing important things, like cleaning the cat litter boxes. Texas is really running out of time for a landfall. The numbers start to fall off drastically after September 10, and by September 24, only 3 storms in the last 165 years have hit Texas. I knew it was less as we got toward October but not that much less.
Potential Gulf system after next weekend on GFS and GEFS has shifted Southward on 12Z and 18Z runs, would be another BoC only system as now depicted. Could always shift back, I suppose.

12Z 30 km FIM 8 close to 15 km FIM 9 at 168 hours, both would suggest edge of ridge would allow system to come North into Gulf, but 30 km FIM (longer range) shows ridge building Westward quickly enough to hold any possible system down in the BoC.



Posts: 18 Comments: 34000
Quoting Doppler22:

Tornado on the ground near Cedar Vale, KS - taken from James Carnes video! *seek shelter! #kswx @NWSWichita
@chaserchick17
Some great pics there, dude. The tornado season seems to be stretching out some this year.
Quoting hydrus:


Betsy was my First Major.

I was 5.78


i was being made in the Keys according to my parents..:)
They had very good memories for that kind of thing, I take it. :-)
Size matters..

Silas & Sar...I'm not sure i agree. SSTs can play an important role and dry air is not always as inhibiting as it may seem. I'm only referencing this because of the video (I think beel posted it); showing Katrina intensifying and crossing Fl. It had a significant dry air problem but that alone was not enough to prevent her from intensifying quickly as she approached and then crossed Fl.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
839 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COWLEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 915 PM CDT

* AT 836 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CEDAR VALE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THIS
REPLACES THE PREVIOUS TORNADO WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THESE COUNTIES.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
ELGIN AROUND 855 PM CDT.
CHAUTAUQUA AROUND 905 PM CDT.
Quoting 539. sar2401:

They had very good memories for that kind of thing, I take it. :-)
It was hilarious..In short, the Keys was a rockin place. We spent a lot of time in the Middle Keys. Its a bit more laid back than Key West. People were kind and honest, lots of partying. Living aboard definitely gives you a lot of freedom.
Quoting midgulfmom:
I may be crazy but...it looks like it's trying to draw moisture in from FLA and LA. (Just have to say I'm enjoying some fabulous grilled Boudin from Don's Meat Market in Scott, LA. Tasty!!!)
You

You're not eating that blood sausage one are you? I like sausage, but I could just never got over the way that stuff looked, with all those white things in there. :-)

What you're seeing is a tropical wave moving west, meeting up with the outflow clouds from TD 5. It's one of the things pushing dry air out in front of it, and causing problems for TD 5.

Sar, did you just seriously drop the word "dude". Did not think you had that in your lexicon. Next week is shaping up to be interesting too, should see September at least spit out four storm, two hurricanes, and probably no majors. Don't think five or six storms is out of the question for September either.
Quoting 541. StormJunkie:

Silas & Sar...I'm not sure i agree. SSTs can play an important role and dry air is not always as inhibiting as it may seem. I'm only referencing this because of the video (I think beel posted it); showing Katrina intensifying and crossing Fl. It had a significant dry air problem but that alone was not enough to prevent her from intensifying quickly as she approached and then crossed Fl.
I think I heard storms can ramp up when crossing warmer shallow water as they approach the coastline. Then there are some warm water eddys out in the GOM that seem to do that too.
500 mb forecast heights suggests that a relocation of the center farther North and East would not change general direction of motion, just shift the track North or Eastward to match new center. Or maybe La Pesca instead of Tampico, but landfall still South of the border. Maybe more rain for Deep South Texas.




Northern part of future Dolly wave (which I think might have been part of the Cristobal wave that went South of the islands) might enhance rain chances tomorrow IMBY. 2.4 inch PWs are a good thing.



Quoting 523. EdMahmoud:

Convection near the Center- maybe they'll find 35 knot winds on the late night/early morning recon fix.


maybe winds to 40 mph
Quoting StormJunkie:
Silas & Sar...I'm not sure i agree. SSTs can play an important role and dry air is not always as inhibiting as it may seem. I'm only referencing this because of the video (I think beel posted it); showing Katrina intensifying and crossing Fl. It had a significant dry air problem but that alone was not enough to prevent her from intensifying quickly as she approached and then crossed Fl.
SST's and dry air are two different things though. SST's are only important to a certain level. After that, their incremental energy to a hurricane isn't all that important. Dry air is something else. Any dry air and a weak storm is a problem. Really powerful storms like Katrina and Camille aren't affected by much once they get cranked up. That's one of the reasons intensity forecasts haven't improved very much. If you take the cat 3 plus storms out of the numbers, intensity forecasts look a lot better. Not only is dry air a problem for weak storms, but it's been way more of a problem with storms this year than normal. I don't know what the deal is with that.
Sar, no not the blood one, haha, yikes.! The rice and pork one. Acadiana is know for their boudin and smoked meats. Really good stuff you can't find anywhere else. :)


Funk top green... Will it grow....
This is a fairly large relocation Northward of where the NHC had the center earlier. Steering currents for where it was earlier located would certainly have taken the path NHC had. But now that it's further North, a landfall far closer to the Texas border would seem not out of the realm of possibilities. Should be interesting to see how path changers when hurricane hunters go in later tonight.
I'm going to predict that the center is re-forming further north under the burst of convection around 93W/21.5N. At the very least there are still multiple centers of low pressure.



Tornado just after 8p CDT b/w Arkansas City and Cedar Vale KS. By Brett Roberts.
@USTornadoes
Quoting 551. sar2401:

SST's and dry air are two different things though. SST's are only important to a certain level. After that, their incremental energy to a hurricane isn't all that important. Dry air is something else. Any dry air and a weak storm is a problem. Really powerful storms like Katrina and Camille aren't affected by much once they get cranked up. That's one of the reasons intensity forecasts haven't improved very much. If you take the cat 3 plus storms out of the numbers, intensity forecasts look a lot better. Not only is dry air a problem for weak storms, but it's been way more of a problem with storms this year than normal. I don't know what the deal is with that.


Katrina was a weak storm when it beat away the dry air. As for SSTs, I don't think the difference between 28c and 30c is a 24-7 benefit to a storm...But when you talk about that extra 2c during Dmax; I think it can have a more profound impact since the temp differential is what is really increasing the moisture transfer.
why is it that recon most of the time flies at times when people are either at work or in bed?
I have seen some discussion, once a system is well established, dry air around the cyclone will not impact the cyclone much if shear is weak. Dry air may limit size, but it won't do much to the core. A then PhD student (now PhD) named Derek Ortt who does energy sector forecasting for Gulf Coast interests told me that, that was one of his areas of research. Off course, if dry air keeps a system from ever developing, than it doesn't matter.

By the time dry air works toward the center cyclonically, it has been modified by convection over the water. Shear pushing dry air into the core will weaken a cyclone.
Quoting 558. Hurricanes101:

why is it that recon most of the time flies at times when people are either at work or in bed?


So there's less people to argue about where theyre going and what they're finding.
Quoting 531. silas:


Honestly I'm having a really hard time seeing that happening at this point. There's a lot of dry air to the north and west, which is where it's going, and that dry air is keeping convection from firing in that area. The SST's and wind shear aren't really problematic for it at all, but I think that if the dry air prevails, this storm will remain fairly lopsided and will likely have trouble getting above 50-60mph before landfall.


I have seen lopsides hurricane. Cristobal being one. If the center reforms further more it might get to mid or upper tropical storm. I am still skeptical of a hurricane.
Quoting 560. JrWeathermanFL:



So there's less people to argue about where theyre going and what they're finding.
hahahaha....just human nature, keeps things interesting.
Quoting midgulfmom:
I think I heard storms can ramp up when crossing warmer shallow water as they approach the coastline. Then there are some warm water eddys out in the GOM that seem to do that too.
It's almost always the opposite - storms weaken as they approach land and get into the cooler shelf waters that are typically close to shore in the tropics. You can see the relatively cooler waters close to shore in almost all the Gulf of Mexico except the west coast of Florida. You can also see the Gulf Loop Current in the red area where it says "6,000". The Gulf Eddy is just to the left. This where the warm waters of the Caribbean enter the Gulf and get carried along to Florida. The Eddy is a piece of the Gulf with no strong current, so the combination of warm water from the Caribbean and water just sitting there causes the water at 3,000 feet deep to be almost as warm as the surface temperature. This is the real Rocket Fuel, and where you don't want to see a storm hang out long.

I could be wrong, but it looks like to me that the town of Elgin, KS has received a direct hit from the tornado.
Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Ensemble Forecast System (FNMOC) Ensembles 10 meter winds in mph. overlaid on 1000 mb. Geopotential heights using Atmograph GRIB-format data visualization and analysis software.

Quoting 565. StormJunkie:




Organized TD
Quoting 567. JrWeathermanFL:



Organized TD


I think the blow up of convection is further proof of where the true center is going to be
Quoting 568. Hurricanes101:



I think the blow up of convection is further proof of where the true center is going to be
If not the 11pm, the 2am advisory we should see an upgrade to Tropical Storm Dolly, if convection sustains over the center.

Now THATS rotation!
@derek_adesso
Quoting 567. JrWeathermanFL:



Organized TD


Getting there, but the N & W side are likely still a bit exposed....Based on the fabricated center I've been going with.
Sar2401, interesting, I wonder if the cool coastal water has any correlation to the "dead zone" from farming run-off dumped by the Mississippi river. Wonder if that was always so? Well, I'm saying about the coastal waters being warm because I recollect, maybe incorrectly, a met mentioning something like that when a hurricane was approaching S Texas one time. Anyway, yes, the eddy I've heard before too, referred to as "rocket fuel" for 'canes!
Quoting StormJunkie:


Katrina was a weak storm when it beat away the dry air. As for SSTs, I don't think the difference between 28c and 30c is a 24-7 benefit to a storm...But when you talk about that extra 2c during Dmax; I think it can have a more profound impact since the temp differential is what is really increasing the moisture transfer.
One of the things I've noticed here is a propensity to take the one exception to a rule and show it somehow disproves the rule. Not you, SJ, you just happen to be the guy I'm picking on right now> ;-) There are always storms like Katrina and Andrew which seem to have some inborn strength that other storms seem to lack. IN the vast majority of the cases, however, weak storms will not be able to fight off dry air, especially a combination of dry air and shear. For every Katrina, I can show you a hundred lesser lights that never made it due to that often fatal combination. Really high SST's, I would argue, are a detriment to DMax, since we need relatively cooler air to decrease capping above the surface. When you have a water temperature of 86, it's not likely the overnight low over open water is going much lower. It's almost a wash in terms of temperature. differential. But now I'm really straying into the guessing arena, so I'll shut up.
2km water vapor loop

Cold cloud tops, thanks Pat for the link.
575. silas

Quoting 557. StormJunkie:



Katrina was a weak storm when it beat away the dry air. As for SSTs, I don't think the difference between 28c and 30c is a 24-7 benefit to a storm...But when you talk about that extra 2c during Dmax; I think it can have a more profound impact since the temp differential is what is really increasing the moisture transfer.
Katrina was a strong TS/"weak" Cat 1 when she beat away the dry air, as you put it. She was also very well organized, whereas TD5 still has almost no convection on its entire NW half.
FNMOC has landfall around San Fernando or at least brings the strongest winds offshore from there.
578. silas

Quoting 546. DeepSeaRising:

Sar, did you just seriously drop the word "dude". Did not think you had that in your lexicon. Next week is shaping up to be interesting too, should see September at least spit out four storm, two hurricanes, and probably no majors. Don't think five or six storms is out of the question for September either.
Let's not get ahead of ourselves just yet... =)

Caleb, as we talked about yesterday, this does resemble 99's Brett in many ways. RI like Brett did is highly unlikely, but like my five year old daughter says, "You never know."
Quoting 576. hurricanes2018:


I stopped trying to post pics because I got the same icon... (kindle fire, no flash player. Just guessing that's my posting problem.)
Quoting midgulfmom:
Sar2401, interesting, I wonder if the cool coastal water has any correlation to the "dead zone" from farming run-off dumped by the Mississippi river. Wonder if that was always so? Well, I'm saying about the coastal waters being warm because I recollect, maybe incorrectly, a met mentioning something like that when a hurricane was approaching S Texas one time. Anyway, yes, the eddy I've heard before too, referred to as "rocket fuel" for 'canes!
I think man has had almost no effect on things like coastal shelf temperatures. The dead zone is actually away from the coast, although still on the shelf. The same thing that makes those water temperatures cooler - replacement water from the deeper parts of the Gulf - also carry the fertilizer runoff into deeper waters of the shelf. You can see how it looks from the mouth of the Mississippi on the map. There are times when the coastal shelf warms up, and a hurricane coming then wouldn't weaken as much, although they still tend to weaken due to land friction. Bottom line is that those cooler coastal shelves have been there since shortly after the asteroid that created the Gulf cooled off. :-)

Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
If not the 11pm, the 2am advisory we should see an upgrade to Tropical Storm Dolly, if convection sustains over the center.


they will prob wait until Recon is in again
Quoting midgulfmom:
I stopped trying to post pics because I got the same icon... (kindle fire, no flash player. Just guessing that's my posting problem.)
Shouldn't be. As long as you are able to copy the picture URL and paste it here using the "Image" button, it should work. If you don't use the button, it will never work.
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Ensemble Forecast System (FNMOC) Ensembles 10 meter winds in mph. overlaid on 1000 mb. Geopotential heights using Atmograph GRIB-format data visualization and analysis software.

I think we have Dolly now, who's with me.
Quoting 579. DeepSeaRising:

Caleb, as we talked about yesterday, this does resemble 99's Brett in many ways. RI like Brett did is highly unlikely, but like my five year old daughter says, "You never know."


I know. I'm beautiful.
Sar, Agree that the majority of weak systems can never overcome dry air. And that Katrina is not an appropriate analog storm. Only used that reference because of the dry air.

As for 05. Shear has dropped today. And the dry air is fairly isolated. It has gotten some distance from the coast as well. I don't think 05 is going to "bomb" out. I do think that it has the potential to organize rather quickly tonight and in to tomorrow though. I am getting to the point where I actually think there is a decent chance we get Dolly out of this.

I don't think these are good analogs either as each storm is different and I'm not a big fan of analogs anyway...But the point is it doesn't always take a lot of time for a system to pull itself together. Humberto and Gaston are two good examples of that. Not the norm, but there is also an outside chance that 05 falls in to the "not the norm" category.

Quoting 570. Doppler22:


Now THATS rotation!
@derek_adesso


I got a whole new respect for tornadoes after my experience in July with an EF-1, scariest thing I can remember in a long while. What exactly does this image show? I know it can show rotation, but how do you know where a tornado is based on this, where the darker colors might the lighter ones?
we are going to have tropical storm dolly soon
With every frame, and throughout the day, that dry air has become less and less prevalent.

.


Quoting 585. KoritheMan:



I know. I'm beautiful.


You totally saw though my quote Kori. You put the Y? in Sexy. When I go to Walmart in the South, it's not for the produce, it's to see you and pick your brain; which is your most attractive feature. :)
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014
1000 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 93.9W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
Here, this is a better way to look at it...







Quoting 553. CaicosRetiredSailor:



Funk top green... Will it grow....


I love your picture. Awesome
Quoting KoritheMan:


I know. I'm beautiful.



But am more beautiful
Tropical Depression FIVE
10:00 PM CDT Mon Sep 1
Location: 21.0°N 93.9°W
Moving: NW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Max sustained: 30 mph
ROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014
1000 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

The depression appears to be gradually organizing this evening as
deep convection has developed over the eastern portion of the large
circulation. Last-light visible satellite pictures suggested that
the center of the depression has likely reformed farther north,
which is not surprising given that the depression is still in its
formative stage. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the depression in a few hours, and this
should assist in determining the center position overnight. Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB still support an initial wind speed of
25 kt.

Although the depression is forecast to strengthen some on Tuesday,
moderate northwesterly shear and dry mid-level air are likely to
inhibit significant intensification before landfall. None of the
reliable intensity models show much strengthening and the NHC
forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory.

The somewhat uncertain initial motion is 310/9 kt. The dynamical
model guidance indicate that the depression will turn west-
northwestward on Tuesday to the south of a mid-level ridge along the
northern Gulf of Mexico coast. The guidance is in good agreement on
this scenario and the NHC track is close to the middle of the
guidance envelope. The updated NHC forecast track is slightly north
of the previous advisory due to the more northward initial position.
Once inland, the cyclone is forecast to quickly dissipate over the
mountains of eastern Mexico.

The primary threat from this system is expected to be heavy
rainfall, which is likely to cause flash-flooding and mud slides
over portions of eastern Mexico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 21.0N 93.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 21.7N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 22.3N 96.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 22.7N 98.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
IIRC (can't find it on internet) there is a point of diminishing returns re SST and MPI, between 26C and 29C, the slope of the increase of MPI with SST is steep, beyond 29C, MPI still increases as SSTs rise, but at an increasingly slow rate.
Quoting 588. Stoopid1:



I got a whole new respect for tornadoes after my experience in July with an EF-1, scariest thing I can remember in a long while. What exactly does this image show? I know it can show rotation, but how do you know where a tornado is based on this, where the darker colors might the lighter ones?

It is where the reds/pinks and greens/blues meet. in this case, there is a blue/red couplet Just to the southeast of Elgin. But all those other dark blues farther south and the brighter pinks farther east just indicate very strong winds inside the storm heading towards and away from the radar, indicating rotation. (I am sorry, I am not the best at explaining things :p)
Quoting 566. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Ensemble Forecast System (FNMOC) Ensembles 10 meter winds in mph. overlaid on 1000 mb. Geopotential heights using Atmograph GRIB-format data visualization and analysis software.




You find a new one? :) Don't think I've seen that one before. I say 50 kt ts. It's so hard down here in BOC! This looks more traditional than Ingrid did and it became a cane, with more time obviously,
Quoting 591. DeepSeaRising:



You totally saw though my quote Kori. You put the Y? in Sexy. When I go to Walmart in the South, it's not for the produce, it's to see you and pick your brain; which is your most attractive feature. :)


I'll be even more attractive after I go blond!

Yes, I'm likely going to dye my hair. Should be fun.
Quoting 597. Tazmanian:




But am more beautiful


lol
Quoting 593. Doppler22:

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014
1000 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 93.9W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


Still think the center is a bit further north and east. 21.6N 93.6W
Quoting 582. will40:



they will prob wait until Recon is in again
If recon is on the way they usually wait. I have seen exceptions like Sandy.
Quoting 593. Doppler22:

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014
1000 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 93.9W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
imho It should have been up to 35mph.
Quoting 587. StormJunkie:

Sar, Agree that the majority of weak systems can never overcome dry air. And that Katrina is not an appropriate analog storm. Only used that reference because of the dry air.

As for 05. Shear has dropped today. And the dry air is fairly isolated. It has gotten some distance from the coast as well. I don't think 05 is going to "bomb" out. I do think that it has the potential to organize rather quickly tonight and in to tomorrow though. I am getting to the point where I actually think there is a decent chance we get Dolly out of this.

I don't think these are good analogs either as each storm is different and I'm not a big fan of analogs anyway...But the point is it doesn't always take a lot of time for a system to pull itself together. Humberto and Gaston are two good examples of that. Not the norm, but there is also an outside chance that 05 falls in to the "not the norm" category.






The thing I see in these images is that it's pulling it directly into its curculation center. Will likely be slow to ramp up, imo. It may overcome it, but I don't think it has too much time, unless thing's have changed. Been out on the boat all day, so trying to catch up atm.
She went from 305 to 310' , thats NW some mo'
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'll be even more attractive after I go blond!

Yes, I'm likely going to dye my hair. Should be fun.
Just wait until that scalp cancer shows up. Then, it won't have seemed like a such a good idea...:-)
Quoting 585. KoritheMan:



I know. I'm beautiful.
I thought the correct way is to say I am handsome.
Sar2401, thanks for clearing the coastal water matter up. Thank goodness for land friction! But alas, we've lost so much land due to man made salt intrusion, marsh erosion, and subsidence. Unfortunately State requirements that natural resource companies fully restore land as they found it (before they cut it like swiss cheese) wasn't done and now they fight vigorously against that requirement they previously agreed to...
Quoting 606. Patrap:




I don't get it! ;) Love it!
Another Bay of Campeche Cyclone, yawn...


maYBE A YELLOW X ON THIS TROPICAL WAVE BY 8AM IN THE MORNING
Quoting 581. sar2401:

I think man has had almost no effect on things like coastal shelf temperatures. The dead zone is actually away from the coast, although still on the shelf. The same thing that makes those water temperatures cooler - replacement water from the deeper parts of the Gulf - also carry the fertilizer runoff into deeper waters of the shelf. You can see how it looks from the mouth of the Mississippi on the map. There are times when the coastal shelf warms up, and a hurricane coming then wouldn't weaken as much, although they still tend to weaken due to land friction. Bottom line is that those cooler coastal shelves have been there since shortly after the asteroid that created the Gulf cooled off. :-)




I have heard the water in Vermillion Bay is fresh enough it can be used for irrigation, or the Atchafalaya water hugs the coast for a while as it moves West, which might be why the dead zone isn't right at the coast. I'm guessing density difference between fresh and salt water produces this, at least for a time. I do know, flying offshore by helo, a sharp line between opaque greenish and clear blue water offshore.
Quoting 605. Hurricanes101:



Still think the center is a bit further north and east. 21.6N 93.6W


They are likely going with a continuity forecast/positioning system ATM since there isn't really any hard data at the moment to support a specific location. No microwave. No recon. No Scat.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Still think the center is a bit further north and east. 21.6N 93.6W
The discussion shows the NHC also thinks a better fix is a good idea.

The depression appears to be gradually organizing this evening as
deep convection has developed over the eastern portion of the large
circulation. Last-light visible satellite pictures suggested that
the center of the depression has likely reformed farther north,
which is not surprising given that the depression is still in its
formative stage. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the depression in a few hours, and this
should assist in determining the center position overnight. Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB still support an initial wind speed of
25 kt.
The somewhat uncertain initial motion is 310/9 kt. The dynamical
model guidance indicate that the depression will turn west-
northwestward on Tuesday to the south of a mid-level ridge along the
northern Gulf of Mexico coast.


That is the difference this time around then Bret. There was a retrogression of the mid-level ridge during Bret that allowed for a weakness to be created northeastward along the southwestern Gulf. This time the mid-level ridge is building in, albeit it is not a really strong one. Tampico still seems like a good location for landfall, but I would not be surprised if it landfalls farther north.

Quoting 610. sar2401:

Just wait until that scalp cancer shows up. Then, it won't have seemed like a such a good idea...:-)
:O noooooo

Quoting 611. allancalderini:

I thought the correct way is to say I am handsome.
I am handsome.
A Asteroid created the GOM ?

Surely not the Chuxulub impact as the Yucatan was already there me tinks.



But I slept at the Motel 6.

: P
Quoting 583. sar2401:

Shouldn't be. As long as you are able to copy the picture URL and paste it here using the "Image" button, it should work. If you don't use the button, it will never work.
Did that, no luck...will try again when I'm on my desktop computer.
Quoting 617. StormJunkie:



They are likely going with a continuity forecast/positioning system ATM since there isn't really any hard data at the moment to support a specific location. No microwave. No recon. No Scat.


Yea I figure until recon gets in there, they will keep going with that

Of course if you noticed since they have classified the system, it has "moved" .9N and only .3W so I think that they are compensating a bit for that already
Quoting 618. sar2401:

The discussion shows the NHC also thinks a better fix is a good idea.

The depression appears to be gradually organizing this evening as
deep convection has developed over the eastern portion of the large
circulation. Last-light visible satellite pictures suggested that
the center of the depression has likely reformed farther north,
which is not surprising given that the depression is still in its
formative stage. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the depression in a few hours, and this
should assist in determining the center position overnight. Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB still support an initial wind speed of
25 kt.


so we weren't crazy then lol. thats good to know
Quoting 622. midgulfmom:

Did that, no luck...will try again when I'm on my desktop computer.



Make sure there is no "s" in http, if so, remove it and re-load Alpha 1.

Over?
The reference is perfect. Kudos
Quoting 614. Jedkins01:

Another Bay of Campeche Cyclone, yawn...


You should go to bed if you're tired. :)

Quoting 614. Jedkins01:

Another Bay of Campeche Cyclone, yawn...

The one time I actually need a trough and it's not there to save me.
Quoting midgulfmom:
Sar2401, thanks for clearing the coastal water matter up. Thank goodness for land friction! But alas, we've lost so much land due to man made salt intrusion, marsh erosion, and subsidence. Unfortunately State requirements that natural resource companies fully restore land as they found it (before they cut it like swiss cheese) wasn't done and now they fight vigorously against that requirement they previously agreed to...
Yeah, the Mississippi delta hasn't been treated well over the last hundred years or so. There's always a battle between those that want to maximize profits and those that want to fix the environment. Still, just think back to when we were young. Oil and gas companies pretty much did whatever they wanted to. Now, it's not perfect, but they have to do a lot more restoration work than in 1950. It's a tough balancing act for the locals as well. Louisiana is relatively wealthy compared to the rest of the South, and that's primarily from natural resource company work and wages. I just wish we'd take the worst offenders and really make examples of them, so the not so bad companies don't get worse.

Although there has been land lost in the Delta, there's still lots left. When you think of a 300 mile wide hurricane, the loss of even a thousand square miles of land is small potatoes in the context of land friction. Land interaction is probably the biggest single detriment to a hurricane in terms of intensity, and we saw that with Katrina, thank goodness.
"recon'..



FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 02/0530Z, 1130Z
B. AFXXX 0205A CYCLONE
C. 02/0230Z
D. 20.5N 95.0W
E. 02/0500Z TO 02/1130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
Recon fixing to take off now
Quoting 597. Tazmanian:




But am more beautiful


Now that Taz is the pithy humor that speaks well to your character. Very funny.
sar

Not just oil companies to blame. Flood control prevents replenishment via half an inch or so of mud and sand the floods would leave, which would balance the natural compaction of the soft sediments of extreme South Louisiana.

Bayou Lafourche no longer floods Golden Meadow, the famous speed trap, almost every Spring, but the land sinks a bit each year, making it more vulnerable to hurricanes, for example.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


so we weren't crazy then lol. thats good to know
No. As they said, when you have a developing cyclone, the center is always slightly "hazy". They have to pick a spot to classify the system and I suspect that recon will show they weren't that far off. A degree is about 69 miles, so even half a degree is less than 35 miles. That's pretty much within the margin of error I'd expect with a crappy system like this. Now, if they come back with something like a two degree jump, that means the initial fix was pretty bad. Like I said earlier, it would be so much easier if we'd finally get a system where we can all put a finger on the map and be able to say, "Yup, looks pretty good to me". We used to be able to do that at one time. :-)
Quite a dramatic change in organization since earlier.

You're never going to get a cyclone with that negative attitude Kori. Nature listens to those who call. Good luck
how long do you think it will take recon to get to the system?


hmmmm, stay up vs go to bed?
Quoting EdMahmoud:
sar

Not just oil companies to blame. Flood control prevents replenishment via half an inch or so of mud and sand the floods would leave, which would balance the natural compaction of the soft sediments of extreme South Louisiana.

Bayou Lafourche no longer floods Golden Meadow, the famous speed trap, almost every Spring, but the land sinks a bit each year, making it more vulnerable to hurricanes, for example.
It never ends. Look at what happened with Alabama and the whole Tombigbee River project. A lot of our problems now were created back in the 50's and 60's, when everyone thought that flood control and hydro power were good things with no downside. Even people who just live near major rivers and flush their toilets are contributors to the problem. It took us a long time to get in this mess and it will probably take at least twice as long to get out.
Quoting Hurricanes101:
how long do you think it will take recon to get to the system?


hmmmm, stay up vs go to bed?


prob 2 hrs
GFS. Stop. It's September

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Quite a dramatic change in organization since earlier.

Yeah, it looks like the low is closing off and starting to draw that convection around the center. If this had about three days over water, things would be a lot more interesting.
Quoting 635. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Quite a dramatic change in organization since earlier.


Yes Sir, would be the correct answer.
Quoting 634. sar2401:

No. As they said, when you have a developing cyclone, the center is always slightly "hazy". They have to pick a spot to classify the system and I suspect that recon will show they weren't that far off. A degree is about 69 miles, so even half a degree is less than 35 miles. That's pretty much within the margin of error I'd expect with a crappy system like this. Now, if they come back with something like a two degree jump, that means the initial fix was pretty bad. Like I said earlier, it would be so much easier if we'd finally get a system where we can all put a finger on the map and be able to say, "Yup, looks pretty good to me". We used to be able to do that at one time. :-)


Don't get me wrong Sar; I am not criticizing the bright folks in the control room at all...But, if you look at where the fix was this morning; and where, what I'm guessing was a mid-level circulation, the sat presented the best image as well as the lowest pressures...It was a couple degrees off. They are slowly blending it together. As the area that was to the NE of the recon fix moves W and there direction/center locations drift N...The two meet. You end up with a continuity forecast.

I don't think it makes a big difference in landfall location, so not really a big deal. Again, not criticizing by any means.
Sar2410, I worked for a natural resource company and was involved in prepping for board room meetings. Trust me, made me upset. They really don't care and it's worth it to them to throw their legal team at blocking compliance forever . They've got the $ now to do that. Something like 3 football fields every hour or some crazy amount like that. I've seen it first hand. Camps that were in the middle of marshes, 15 years later, surrounded by open water far as the eye could see, and were eventually abandoned usually after hurricane damage. For every mile of marsh, one foot of storm surge is absorbed. I'm old enough to remember cypress swamps south of N.O. Now there are none. Evacuating for Hurricanes meant going to higher ground within the city. Nobody evacuated until Hurricane Georges as far as I can remember. Now it's normal. I believe our state should hold them responsible and some have/are trying, it's what our people want but sad to say, we have a governor that disagrees. (I'm sure his war chest is full.) But it's not over yet...
Quoting DeepSeaRising:


Now that Taz is the pithy humor that speaks well to your character. Very funny.



Thanks
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
GFS. Stop. It's September




It would be mid to late sep by that time
Quoting 641. sar2401:

Yeah, it looks like the low is closing off and starting to draw that convection around the center. If this had about three days over water, things would be a lot more interesting.


How long does it have?

Quoting 640. TropicalAnalystwx13:

GFS. Stop. It's September


Maybe we'll get lucky and have that unseasonable cold trigger an area of low pressure in the Gulf that moves toward the northern Gulf Coast. You know, like Nate could have done but didn't.
Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 03:13Z
Date: September 2, 2014
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)
Tropical Depression: Number 5 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 03



03:13:00Z 29.550N 89.750W 435.9 mb
(~ 12.87 inHg) 6,993 meters
(~ 22,943 feet) - 404 meters
(~ 1,325 feet) From 42° at 4 knots
(From the NE at ~ 4.6 mph) -13.0°C
(~ 8.6°F) -19.7°C
(~ -3.5°F) 5 knots
(~ 5.8 mph) - - - -
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor

HDOB Observations

Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic

At 03:03:30Z (first observation), the observation was 33 miles (53 km) to the SSW (208°) from Gulfport, MS, USA.
At 03:13:00Z (last observation), the observation was 35 miles (56 km) to the SSE (148°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.

Please note, suspect coordinates are not plotted.


Nothing terribly impressive going on here yet.



Quoting 642. Pallis1:

Yes Sir, would be the correct answer.


Pallis, did you say to me once you were from a lineage of Sarasotans?
Quoting 650. StormJunkie:



Nothing terribly impressive going on here yet.





wind shifting east. Looks like this may pass to the south of buoy at 22.2N 94W
Watching "Buying The Beach"...Couple looking at homes on Bolivar. Sure brings back some memories. I expect Billy to stroll by any minute.
Quoting 653. Abacosurf:


wind shifting east. Looks like this may pass to the south of this buoy at 22.2N 94W


Has been an easterly component to it since yesterday. Now if we see a shift ESE as opposed to ENE then we'll know it's passing by.
Quoting 656. StormJunkie:



Has been an easterly component to it since yesterday. Now if we see a shift ESE as opposed to ENE then we'll know it's passing by.
Just going off the previous two readings and observations.
Quoting 611. allancalderini:

I thought the correct way is to say I am handsome.


nope...boys can be beautiful too
Quoting 658. Abacosurf:

Just going off the previous two readings and observations.


Been watching to see if we get any wind shift to indicate center location; but no such luck yet. Other than it seems to still be to the W of the buoy. I think?

Quoting 638. sar2401:

It never ends. Look at what happened with Alabama and the whole Tombigbee River project. A lot of our problems now were created back in the 50's and 60's, when everyone thought that flood control and hydro power were good things with no downside. Even people who just live near major rivers and flush their toilets are contributors to the problem. It took us a long time to get in this mess and it will probably take at least twice as long to get out.
i don't always agree with you, but thank's for saying that. In my not so humble opinion, the Army Corps of Engineers ruined my State. Now we have to repair it somehow. I do not blame the workers or the common engineers. I blame the plan, and the money interests behind them. Did I mention I am good at recent history and the politics that created it as well? As Governor, I would support a ban on FD and C#5, and artificial fertilizers in the entire state the first day. Sure, I would get some backlash from Du Pont, Tough for them, good for people that eat food and drink water.
Quoting 660. StormJunkie:



Been watching to see if we get any wind shift to indicate center location; but no such luck yet. Other than it seems to still be to the W of the buoy. I think?




Im thinking you mean East of the buoy?
Quoting 660. StormJunkie:



Been watching to see if we get any wind shift to indicate center location; but no such luck yet. Other than it seems to still be to the W of the buoy. I think?



It's passing the south side of the buoy now. May not get much of a wind switch unless this gets moving more north. I wouldn't expect this to shift much past SE-S winds on the trajectory 05 is heading. Recon will tell all soon.
Quoting 663. Hurricanes101:



Im thinking you mean East of the buoy?


Yeah, I have a bad habit of doing that.

Abaco, agreed there won't be a big wind shift...But should certainly see the N to S component shift.
Quoting 644. midgulfmom:

Sar2410, I worked for a natural resource company and was involved in prepping for board room meetings. Trust me, made me upset. They really don't care and it's worth it to them to throw their legal team at blocking compliance forever . They've got the $ now to do that. Something like 3 football fields every hour or some crazy amount like that. I've seen it first hand. Camps that were in the middle of marshes, 15 years later, surrounded by open water far as the eye could see, and were eventually abandoned usually after hurricane damage. For every mile of marsh, one foot of storm surge is absorbed. I'm old enough to remember cypress swamps south of N.O. Now there are none. Evacuating for Hurricanes meant going to higher ground within the city. Nobody evacuated until Hurricane Georges as far as I can remember. Now it's normal. I believe our state should hold them responsible and some have/are trying, it's what our people want but sad to say, we have a governor that disagrees. (I'm sure his war chest is full.) But it's not over yet...


Hit the nail on the head with that post. A national story that has been touched on by the national news once every three years and is known by those in the states it affects, but largely gone untold. Money talks truth walks and no end to that any time in the foreseeable future. it's gone, we don't have the money or interest to bring it back. Would cost billions and billions to undo what has been done. You'll never hold the responsible responsible. They have the power, money, and connections to make that impossible. It is what it is, and what it is is very very sad. All in the name of the almighty greenbuck. The cross-argument would be the energy gained that was much needed; but what a high price to pay. The next generations will worry about that though.
Egos are like chocolates, ya never know. Have a good night y'all. Enjoy the BOC wonders. This place gets better and better every day.
Good analysis tonite SJ.
Quoting 668. CosmicEvents:

Good analysis tonite SJ.


Thanks CE. Been interesting watching this one after it made the Yuc crossing.
Ha. The GFS has our first "square" tropical cyclone ever. lol

Quoting Pallis1:
i don't always agree with you, but thank's for saying that. In my not so humble opinion, the Army Corps of Engineers ruined my State. Now we have to repair it somehow. I do not blame the workers or the common engineers. I blame the plan, and the money interests behind them. Did I mention I am good at recent history and the politics that created it as well? As Governor, I would support a ban on FD and C#5, and artificial fertilizers in the entire state the first day. Sure, I would get some backlash from Du Pont, Tough for them, good for people that eat food and drink water.
You don't always agree with me? I'm shocked. You're the first one who's ever said that. :-)

There is only group of people who are to blame - the people. We have an absolute right to choose and elect anyone we want. This isn't Iran. Instead of people trying to understand the issues and vote accordingly, they want "someone", usually the government to fix everything. Well, the government is what got us in this mess, and they won't get us out. If a majority of people agreed with you about things like food colors, food dye, and fertilizer, it should be no problem getting your man elected. Yet, in election after election, we get some permutation of the same bunch. I'm not letting my fellow citizens off the hook so easily.
Quoting StormJunkie:
Ha. The GFS has our first "square" tropical cyclone ever. lol

Ha! It's just like one of those Japanese watermelons. I like the idea though. It's so much easier to calculate the area of a square compared to a circle. :-)
673. JRRP
I prefer wait the next run
Quoting GatorWX:


How long does it have?
Two, at the outside.
Quoting 672. sar2401:

Ha! It's just like one of those Japanese watermelons. I like the idea though. It's so much easier to calculate the area of a square compared to a circle. :-)


I love the idea of a square watermelon... Easier to stack. One of these days I will see how they taste...
Looks to be almost due S of the buoy now...Or getting very close to due S of it.

Which likely means that the NW side is still pretty exposed.
Quoting 671. sar2401:

You don't always agree with me? I'm shocked. You're the first one who's ever said that. :-)

There is only group of people who are to blame - the people. We have an absolute right to choose and elect anyone we want. This isn't Iran. Instead of people trying to understand the issues and vote accordingly, they want "someone", usually the government to fix everything. Well, the government is what got us in this mess, and they won't get us out. If a majority of people agreed with you about things like food colors, food dye, and fertilizer, it should be no problem getting your man elected. Yet, in election after election, we get some permutation of the same bunch. I'm not letting my fellow citizens off the hook so easily.


The powers that be have divided us perfectly. Leaving us with choices that really aren't choices. The people are the problem, we have been defeated by entertaining programming that keeps us from deeper understanding of the issues and really engaging. Power of the people indeed. Last presidential election was almost 50/50 exactly; in a country of over 300 million. This is no coincidence. We have been divided and we have been defeated by powered moneyed interests. As I've said many times before, the age of intellectualism's decline and the rise of technology parallel each other perfectly. When we have sheep defending truth, the truth is lost. America and the West have become sheep; the dirtiest and dumbest of the animal world. We are watching the decline of the West and with this decline will come wars and rumors of war............
Quoting midgulfmom:
Sar2410, I worked for a natural resource company and was involved in prepping for board room meetings. Trust me, made me upset. They really don't care and it's worth it to them to throw their legal team at blocking compliance forever . They've got the $ now to do that. Something like 3 football fields every hour or some crazy amount like that. I've seen it first hand. Camps that were in the middle of marshes, 15 years later, surrounded by open water far as the eye could see, and were eventually abandoned usually after hurricane damage. For every mile of marsh, one foot of storm surge is absorbed. I'm old enough to remember cypress swamps south of N.O. Now there are none. Evacuating for Hurricanes meant going to higher ground within the city. Nobody evacuated until Hurricane Georges as far as I can remember. Now it's normal. I believe our state should hold them responsible and some have/are trying, it's what our people want but sad to say, we have a governor that disagrees. (I'm sure his war chest is full.) But it's not over yet...
Of course they don't care. Their job is to maximize returns to shareholders. Their legal team doesn't matter. All the state had to do is tell them that their tax breaks will end tomorrow. The companies will say no problem, they're leaving tomorrow. Everyone with a "good" job will then be up in arms and threaten to lynch the governor. The oil companies will then get their tax breaks restored. It's easy to blame a small group of bad people, but they really have no power if the people elect the other citizens that are committed to the environment and then stand behind them, even if it means personal pain. I have yet to find that anywhere I've lived. Oil companies know how predictable people are if there's a threat to next month's boat payment. That's way more important than a good legal team.
I think it is interesting to note that this year's hurricane season is similar in numbers to the 1968 hurricane season (in the Pacific.)
Hurricane Madeline ended on August 30.

(1968 hurricane season marked one of the most dangerous for areas Southern California because wildfires damaged the mountains.)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
GFS. Stop. It's September


Actually, mid-September in Fantasyland. :-) I say, bring it on. This has been the hottest most humid, driest, sunniest summer I ever remember. I'm doing things at 5:30 in the morning because it's too hot to do anything outside by 8:00. I take Radar Dog for walks after 10:00 at night because that's when it finally drops below 80. I have mildew all over everything from my window frames to my roses. I have to wear gloves when I barbecue because it's too hot to tough the metal parts - and that's before I turn it on. I'm absolutely sick of summer. Any cold weather out there can park itself right outside my door.
Quoting 680. sar2401:


Actually, mid-September in Fantasyland. :-) I say, bring it on. This has been the hottest most humid, driest, sunniest summer I ever remember. I'm doing things at 5:30 in the morning because it's too hot to do anything outside by 8:00. I take Radar Dog for walks after 10:00 at night because that's when it finally drops below 80. I have mildew all over everything from my window frames to my roses. I have to wear gloves when I barbecue because it's too hot to tough the metal parts - and that's before I turn it on. I'm absolutely sick of summer. Any cold weather out there can park itself right outside my door.
Yikes. In Toronto we are finishing up the coolest summer I have over remembered by far. It broke 90 maybe once, in June.
Quoting 678. sar2401:

Of course they don't care. Their job is to maximize returns to shareholders. Their legal team doesn't matter. All the state had to do is tell them that their tax breaks will end tomorrow. The companies will say no problem, they're leaving tomorrow. Everyone with a "good" job will then be up in arms and threaten to lynch the governor. The oil companies will then get their tax breaks restored. It's easy to blame a small group of bad people, but they really have no power if the people elect the other citizens that are committed to the environment and then stand behind them, even if it means personal pain. I have yet to find that anywhere I've lived. Oil companies know how predictable people are if there's a threat to next month's boat payment. That's way more important than a good legal team.
I do believe the lust for money, power, and recognition has risen to greater heights in the last 40 yrs. Yes, politicians were corrupt to a degree, but not nearly as much as today. Most are bought and paid for. People are not powerless and can affect change but the division, distractions, and dumbing down of our culture are making it very difficult to come to a consensus of thought, beliefs, and actions. That might only happen when the SHTF and then it may be too late but I hope not.
Quoting DeepSeaRising:


The powers that be have divided us perfectly. Leaving us with choices that really aren't choices. The people are the problem, we have been defeated by entertaining programming that keeps us from deeper understanding of the issues and really engaging. Power of the people indeed. Last presidential election was almost 50/50 exactly; in a country of over 300 million. This is no coincidence. We have been divided and we have been defeated by powered moneyed interests. As I've said many times before, the age of intellectualism's decline and the rise of technology parallel each other perfectly. When we have sheep defending truth, the truth is lost. America and the West have become sheep; the dirtiest and dumbest of the animal world. We are watching the decline of the West and with this decline will come wars and rumors of war............

Hey! I like sheep. :-)

No, the people have done a great job of dividing themselves. We have the 1% against the 99%. Blacks against whites. The educated against the uneducated. People who think they know something about the weather versus those who think they think they know something about the weather. It goes on and on. There are no PTB that can accomplish that. It has to be us buying into the program. Without our willing cooperation and enthusiastic support, "they" don't stand a chance. Look at your post. They don't give us any choices. They make us watch TV. They make us use technology that dulls our intellect. No, it's not they. It's us, and until enough of us quit looking for some knight in shining armor to come save us, nothing is going to change.
685. JRRP
Fujiwara Effect

could you believe ?
Get ready for Hurricane #4 before this is done with.
recon is there it took 2 hrs exactly
Quoting 661. Pallis1:

i don't always agree with you, but thank's for saying that. In my not so humble opinion, the Army Corps of Engineers ruined my State. Now we have to repair it somehow. I do not blame the workers or the common engineers. I blame the plan, and the money interests behind them. Did I mention I am good at recent history and the politics that created it as well? As Governor, I would support a ban on FD and C#5, and artificial fertilizers in the entire state the first day. Sure, I would get some backlash from Du Pont, Tough for them, good for people that eat food and drink water.


Never heard back. From Sarasota or not, I'd vote for ya! Sick of this red tide, dead zone bs. "It's a natural phenomenon. It's been happening for millennia" nonsense.
Recon seems to have found TS winds outside of the convective mass - a large swath of uncontaminated 35-40 knot SFMR winds with flight level at 900mb also at TS force.

This should be Dolly at the next advisory, likely 45 knots assuming there are stronger winds closer to the center.
Quoting MaxL1023:
Recon seems to have found TS winds outside of the convective mass - a large swath of uncontaminated 35-40 knot SFMR winds with flight level at 900mb also at TS force.

This should be Dolly at the next advisory, likely 45 knots assuming there are stronger winds closer to the center.



was during an altitude change tho
Quoting 684. sar2401:


Hey! I like sheep. :-)

No, the people have done a great job of dividing themselves. We have the 1% against the 99%. Blacks against whites. The educated against the uneducated. People who think they know something about the weather versus those who think they think they know something about the weather. It goes on and on. There are no PTB that can accomplish that. It has to be us buying into the program. Without our willing cooperation and enthusiastic support, "they" don't stand a chance. Look at your post. They don't give us any choices. They make us watch TV. They make us use technology that dulls our intellect. No, it's not they. It's us, and until enough of us quit looking for some knight in shining armor to come save us, nothing is going to change.
The country does have a sub-culture of like-minded people who don't buy into everything that's being "sold" as new and improved. :) with that I say good night (bonne nuit) and sleep well.
Recon is now flying in circles trying to figure out why a 25 knot TD looks like a 40 knot TS. There are too many readings at the same flight level, SFMR from all flight levels and flight level winds at multiple levels to discount the readings, unless every reading taken since takeoff is suspect.
Quoting 659. WaterWitch11:



nope...boys can be beautiful too


Ya darn right ;)
Quoting midgulfmom:
I do believe the lust for money, power, and recognition has risen to greater heights in the last 40 yrs. Yes, politicians were corrupt to a degree, but not nearly as much as today. Most are bought and paid for. People are not powerless and can affect change but the division, distractions, and dumbing down of our culture are making it very difficult to come to a consensus of thought, beliefs, and actions. That might only happen when the SHTF and then it may be too late but I hope not.
Oh my. Have you ever read about the Robber Barons? Back in the days when guys like Andrew Carnegie made 100 million dollars a year and paid no income tax - because there wasn't any income tax. When a railroad could kill off an entire town just by pulling up the tracks, and there was no law against it? Back when steel mills and chemical companies used to pollute Cuyahoga River in Cleveland so badly that it regularly caught fire? When companies would and could put whatever outright poisons they wanted in food and medicine and got away with it - because there were no laws against it? The lust for money and greed is no different now than it was then. The difference is that they can't run completely roughshod over anyone they choose. Long before we had Nixon, we had Harding, who's entire cabinet ended up in jail. President Grant had a list of patronage jobs he was handing out and how much it cost to get each job - and there was no law against it! When it comes to dumbing down, Facebook has done a better job of that than anything ever thought of in the past. Who would have ever thought that people would voluntarily sit in a chair and look at ads while reading about what someone they barely know had for lunch? Even worse, read about some bizarre conspiracy theory posted by someone you barely know and "share" it with all your hundreds of friends when a one minute Google search would show it's false? I'm sorry, but I've lived long enough to know that until we as a people stop playing Candy Crush and get up and go crush some bad guys, change is never going to happen.
Quoting 685. JRRP:

Fujiwara Effect

could you believe ?


The Atlantic is smiling at us. :)
Quoting midgulfmom:
The country does have a sub-culture of like-minded people who don't buy into everything that's being "sold" as new and improved. :) with that I say good night (bonne nuit) and sleep well.
GN, mom. It's too bad it's not bigger than a "sub".
Quoting 677. DeepSeaRising:



The powers that be have divided us perfectly. Leaving us with choices that really aren't choices. The people are the problem, we have been defeated by entertaining programming that keeps us from deeper understanding of the issues and really engaging. Power of the people indeed. Last presidential election was almost 50/50 exactly; in a country of over 300 million. This is no coincidence. We have been divided and we have been defeated by powered moneyed interests. As I've said many times before, the age of intellectualism's decline and the rise of technology parallel each other perfectly. When we have sheep defending truth, the truth is lost. America and the West have become sheep; the dirtiest and dumbest of the animal world. We are watching the decline of the West and with this decline will come wars and rumors of war............


Ssshhhhhhh. They're listening.
698. JRRP
and the party continues

GEM
Quoting will40:
recon is there it took 2 hrs exactly
Maybe someday they'll get some E-8 Poseidon aircraft that can cruise at 530 mph instead of old clunker P-3 Orions that can barely make 300 mph.
701. TXCWC
Looks like Dolly to me: 50mph storm currently?

Quoting JRRP:
and the party continues

GEM
Where's the one about to come into Alabama? It can't be the real GEM without my weekly hurricane.
Quoting 700. sar2401:

Maybe someday they'll get some E-8 Poseidon aircraft that can cruise at 530 mph instead of old clunker P-3 Orions that can barely make 300 mph.


Don't really want to be flying a jet in to real storms. The 130's and Orions are almost perfectly suited for their task.
704. JRRP
Quoting SouthCentralTx:


The Atlantic is smiling at us. :)

jejeje yeah
Quoting TXCWC:
Looks like Dolly to me: 50mph storm currently?

It will be updated to 45 mph at 0500. Our record for a named storm in each month will remain intact. :-)
Quoting StormJunkie:


Don't really want to be flying a jet in to real storms. The 130's and Orions are almost perfectly suited for their task.
The E/P-8's have been flying into some pretty good storms for the Navy looking for subs. It's about to go out of production, so they'll have to come up with a replacement at some point. The WC-130 is even more poorly suited for hurricane hunters.
707. JRRP
Quoting sar2401:
Where's the one about to come into Alabama? It can't be the real GEM without my weekly hurricane.

you mean this, right ?

Quoting aidaman:
Get ready for Hurricane #4 before this is done with.
Where? When? How big? We want details, not some vague prediction. :-)
Not even going to talk about that TD....

On a more interesting note, the long-range models seems to suggest the season kicking into gear with multiple systems in a week or so.
Quoting 697. GatorWX:



Ssshhhhhhh. They're listening.


LOL, I know they're listening, should have seen my posts from yesteryear. But they know, I still am a patriot, believe in America, and have hope for a brighter future. I've dropped some much harder truths here in times past that I'm sure have landed me on a list or two. But our Fusion camps have millions on those, so I'm in good company. Truth is what it is and can not be anything but. Just wait for the next terrorist attack on American soil, which is an inevitability. You'll see us go from isolationist footing to war footing in the blink of an eye. I pray for all, a brighter tomorrow, and know what will come will come. To worry is folly and insidious, for it does no good. Just live tomorrow for tomorrow and do the best we can for the next day after is never promised.
Quoting JRRP:

you mean this, right ?

Ah, that's better. I thought you were posting some kind of fake GEM there for a minute. Next Monday huh? Six days from now. I need to get the beer and smokes tomorrow before I'm trapped in the shelter...
Quoting 706. sar2401:

The E/P-8's have been flying into some pretty good storms for the Navy looking for subs. It's about to go out of production, so they'll have to come up with a replacement at some point. The WC-130 is even more poorly suited for hurricane hunters.


Never thought jets were well suited to severe storms. Possible damage to the engines being one problem, but they also don't have "prop wash". That can add a control element you just can't get out of a jet. How low are they flying the P8's? Really, the future will be the drone. Ultimately, a lot more cost effective.
Quoting Drakoen:
Not even going to talk about that TD....

On a more interesting note, the long-range models seems to suggest the season kicking into gear with multiple systems in a week or so.
Including one hitting Alabama. I was feeling left out for a while until JRRP finally posted the real GEM, not the fake one his handlers were telling him to post...
Wish I could stick around for the rest of the recon flight, but got to get the boy up for school in the morning. Night all.
Don't get too far ahead of yourself..better to comment current systems then to talk about systems that dont exist yet.
good night mates, have a good one.
Quoting StormJunkie:


Never thought jets were well suited to severe storms. Possible damage to the engines being one problem, but they also don't have "prop wash". That can add a control element you just can't get out of a jet. How low are they flying the P8's? Really, the future will be the drone. Ultimately, a lot more cost effective.
Right on the deck. Turbo fans don't suffer the same kinds of compressor damage that older turbojet engines found problematical. The E-8 is a version of the 737-800. These aircraft (in different versions) have been flying since the mid-60's and takes off and lands thousands of times a day, ingesting things like Canada Geese and never slowing down. You can be sure it's a good airplane if the Navy is willing to give up the P-3.
Quoting StormJunkie:
Wish I could stick around for the rest of the recon flight, but got to get the boy up for school in the morning. Night all.
GN, SJ. I need to be up at 0530 for a doctor's appointment and I'm already in zombieland. See everyone later today - much later. :-)
719. JRRP
An area of low pressure could form between the west coast of Africa
and the Cape Verde Islands by Friday. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for additional development through the
weekend while the system moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
We have TS Dolly!
721. ryang
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES DEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED
INTO TROPICAL STORM DOLLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMEPECHE...

000
ABNT20 KNHC 020550
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Dolly, located over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico.

An area of low pressure could form between the west coast of Africa
and the Cape Verde Islands by Friday. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for additional development through the
weekend while the system moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&
Dolly and new area.
724. JRRP
We have Dolly, and we'll shortly have Norbert, a potential Baja runner.
Hello Dolly...

Too bad you won't be around for very long.
Quoting 719. JRRP:

An area of low pressure could form between the west coast of Africa
and the Cape Verde Islands by Friday. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for additional development through the
weekend while the system moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
westward!
It almost looks like the GFS and GFS ensembles want to spin up TWO cyclones out of the monsoonal flow in the western Caribbean. This likely suggests they are struggling to resolve competition between the east Pacific and the Caribbean, and also attests that if we do see an increase in moisture in that region over the next week or so, it will likely take a long time to consolidate into a cyclone, if it ever does.

Still a lot of time to watch this, if it happens at all.
UKMET 00z likes the prospect.

730. JRRP
Quoting Gearsts:
westward!

yeah
Quoting 726. Dakster:

Hello Dolly...

Too bad you won't be around for very long.


We have vindication, though. The center was relocated as several of us have predicted. From the NHC:

"DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
RE-LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND
NOAA BUOY DATA NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.4 WEST. DOLLY
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THIS MORNING. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT...AND MOVE INLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING."
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 06:18Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)
Tropical Depression: Number 5 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 5:47:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°32'N 95°16'W (21.5333N 95.2667W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 173 miles (278 km) to the ESE (106°) from Tampico, Tamaulipas, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 771m (2,530ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 47kts (~ 54.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 96 nautical miles (110 statute miles) to the ENE (68°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 141° at 53kts (From the SE at ~ 61.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 102 nautical miles (117 statute miles) to the ENE (67°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1009mb (29.80 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 926m (3,038ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 926m (3,038ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 925mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 20 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 53kts (~ 61.0mph) which was observed 102 nautical miles (117 statute miles) to the ENE (67°) from the flight level center at 5:10:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb


General Notes About Vortex Messages:
- Reported winds are usually averaged over a 10 second period. (NHC advisory wind speeds are the highest expected winds averaged over a 1 minute period.)
- The maximum flight level temperature outside the eye (item I.) "is taken just outside the central region of a cyclone (i.e., just outside the eyewall or just beyond the maximum wind band). This temperature may not be the highest recorded on the inbound leg but is representative of the environmental temperature just outside the central region of the storm."
- The maximum flight level temperature inside the eye (item J.) is the "maximum temperature observed within 5 nm of the center fix coordinates. If a higher temperature is observed at a location more than 5 nm away from the flight level center (item BRAVO), it is reported in Remarks, including bearing and distance from the flight level center."
(Quotes from National Hurricane Operations Plan - NHOP)
50-60mph next advisory?
It was relocated a lot. Very strange center fix the HH put out. That doesn't seem right. Especially when compared with this. This track seems goofy too. It's suddenly going to mover SW?



Anyway, off to bed for real this time.
Quoting 733. Gearsts:




Too far north. Going to recurve.
Quoting 734. StormJunkie:

It was relocated a lot. Very strange center fix the HH put out. That doesn't seem right. Especially when compared with this. This track seems goofy too. It's suddenly going to mover SW?



Anyway, off to bed for real this time.


The southwest movement is illusory because intermediate advisories don't update the track, just the initial position.
Quoting Gearsts:

Edouard?
img
Barely any sal to worry about.
I think NHC has made a mistake with the hurricane track or the models are messed up.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Dolly, located over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico.

1. An area of low pressure could form between the west coast of Africa
and the Cape Verde Islands by Friday. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for additional development through the
weekend while the system moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Dolly are issued under WMO
header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Dolly are issued under WMO
header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.
Quoting 719. JRRP:

An area of low pressure could form between the west coast of Africa
and the Cape Verde Islands by Friday. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for additional development through the
weekend while the system moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
doom!!!
Either it's very disorganized or a very small center is under the convection:



Given the orientation of the wind field in the pass, my money's on the former.
True center.
Time: 08:17:00Z
Coordinates: 22.8167N 95.1667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 925.0 mb (~ 27.32 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 740 meters (~ 2,428 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1006.4 mb (~ 29.72 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 120° at 1 knots (From the ESE at ~ 1.1 mph)
Air Temp: 21.5°C (~ 70.7°F)
Dew Pt: 20.2°C (~ 68.4°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 3 knots (~ 3.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 27 knots (~ 31.0 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr (~ 0 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
00z ECMWF, 240 hours. Ridge is weaker than the 12z. The potential storm is stronger, however.
Quoting 744. CybrTeddy:

00z ECMWF, 240 hours. Ridge is weaker than the 12z.



Doesn't matter if the ridge was stronger, really. Anything emerging off Africa at that latitude is almost guaranteed to recurve.
Powerful wave over West Africa near 10N 0W. The wave has both equatorward and poleward vorticity maximas which is a sign of a strong easterly wave. Good divergence aloft with an ULAC and unanimous agreement among the reliable computer models for development of this system.


Morning all... I see we have Dolly. Glad this first storm of the season for MX is not going to be too overwhelming.

Has it been dry in this part of MX, similar to TX, or have they had more normal precipitation conditions?
Quoting Drakoen:
Powerful wave over West Africa near 10N 0W. The wave has both equatorward and poleward vorticity maximas which is a sign of a strong easterly wave. Good divergence aloft with an ULAC and unanimous agreement among the reliable computer models for development of this system.


Are those two waves ready to be Edouard and Fay? I think so.
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014
400 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the
cyclone early this morning found 925 mb flight-level winds of 50-53
kt in the northeast quadrant and adjusted SFMR winds of at least 40
kt. In addition, two ASCAT overpasses at 0313 UTC and 0406 UTC
indicated surface winds of 40-41 kt in the eastern quadrant. Based
on these wind data, the intensity has been increased to 40 kt,
making the cyclone the fourth tropical storm of the 2014 Atlantic
hurricane season. These wind data also required the initial
position to be relocated about 60 nmi north of the previous track.

The initial motion estimate is northwestward or 305/12 kt, which is
based on a blend of passive microwave, scatterometer, and
conventional satellite fix data. Other than the northward relocation
of the center position, the forecast track reasoning remains
unchanged from the previous advisories. The tropical storm is
expected to gradually turn more toward the west-northwest as Dolly
skirts along the southern periphery of a strong mid-level ridge that
is located across most of the Gulf of Mexico and the southeastern
United States. Landfall along the northeastern coast of Mexico is
expected in about 24 hours, followed by dissipation in 48 hours
over the rugged terrain of the Sierra Madre Oriental mountains. The
NHC forecast track is similar to the consensus model TVCA, and lies
roughly in the middle of the guidance envelope.

About 20 kt of north-northwesterly vertical shear is affecting
Dolly, which has resulted in most of the convection being displaced
well to the south and east of the exposed low-level circulation.
However, new convection has recently developed near and just to the
southeast of the center, and with the shear forecast to decrease to
about 15 kt during the next 12 hours, some additional slight
strengthening is possible before Dolly makes landfall.

The surface wind data from the reconnaissance aircraft and the
two scatterometer passes indicate that the tropical-storm-force wind
field has expanded significantly in the eastern semicircle. Since
the pressure gradient between Dolly and the large high over the
Gulf of Mexico is expected to remain quite strong for the next 36
hours or so, the Government of Mexico has extended the tropical
storm warning area northward to Barra El Mezquital. However, no
additional northward extension of the warning area appears likely
at this time.

The primary threat from this system is expected to be heavy
rainfall, which is likely to cause flash flooding and mud slides
over portions of eastern Mexico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 22.6N 94.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 23.1N 95.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 23.7N 97.5W 45 KT 50 MPH


both tropical waves will be tropical storms down the road
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 AM PDT TUE SEP 2 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to update the discussion of
the low pressure system southwest of Mexico.

Updated: Satellite-derived wind data indicate that the low
pressure system located about 300 miles southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico, is producing a small area of gale-force winds. Although the
associated shower and thunderstorm activity has not yet acquired
sufficient organization or persistence for the low to be considered
a tropical cyclone, only a slight increase in organization would
lead to the development of a tropical storm, and advisories could be
initiated later today. This system is expected to move slowly
northward and then northwestward near the southwestern coast of
Mexico and the extreme southern Baja California peninsula during the
next few days, and interests in these areas should monitor the
progress of the disturbance. Locally heavy rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over portions of
southwestern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

invest 93E
dolly still has time to ramp it up
surely wont mention politics on this blog. but what about the ads?
Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning all... I see we have Dolly. Glad this first storm of the season for MX is not going to be too overwhelming.

Has it been dry in this part of MX, similar to TX, or have they had more normal precipitation conditions?
Good morning Baha. I'm upright but I'm still checking to see if my heart is actually beating. I hate early morning doctor's appointments. Dolly made it earlier this morning and, as usual with storms this season, it's looking a little peaked. It should be well onshore by this time tomorrow. I was checking precipitation amounts earlier. Tampico and Matamoros are both about 5 inches short for the year, which is only about 50% of normal. The problem with the area around the BOC is the high mountains not far inland, so mudslides are pretty common with tropical storms. The hopeful thing is that Dolly is going to make landfall between Tampico and Matamoros, which is the least populated area of Tamaulipas state. As long as the rain stays within the 3 to 6 inches predicted, the impact shouldn't be too bad.
755. DrTau
Hey guys, what is the thing around 25W 32N?
T.S. Dolly not looking too good.
Quoting 748. HurricaneAndre:

Are those two waves ready to be Edouard and Fay? I think so.
Let s see what happens when they hit the waters near CV.
Quoting 744. CybrTeddy:

00z ECMWF, 240 hours. Ridge is weaker than the 12z. The potential storm is stronger, however.

Sorry,looks like another fish.
I'd say I liked the last Dolly better if that one also didn't look pretty disorganized until the very last day before landfall.

Quoting DrTau:
Hey guys, what is the thing around 25W 32N?
Upper level low embedded in a tropical wave is what it looks like. It's way too far north to ever develop westward if that's what you're asking
Latest FIM and GFS seems to suggest next weeks system will be so far South as to be minor, may even go to signal of Euro and Canadian of an East Pac system.

I tried.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I'd say I liked the last Dolly better if that one also didn't look pretty disorganized until the very last day before landfall.

This one will also get more organized before landfall but it's moving at a pretty good clip. As long as it keeps moving, a 50 mph storm, as the NHC predicts, seem reasonable.
Quoting EdMahmoud:
Latest FIM and GFS seems to suggest next weeks system will be so far South as to be minor, may even go to signal of Euro and Canadian of an East Pac system.

I tried.
LOL. Given the model performance this year with African waves, I just can't get myself too worked up until at least 24 hours after it hits water. There's still a lot of dry air and shear in the MDR, and the survival rate of these waves hasn't been good. I have a feeling that some people are just looking at every possible wave and hoping that one of them will actually become the Big One this year so they can yell "First!!!". :-)
Center is right where the red dot of convection is on the NNW side of the sheared CDO. Still partially exposed, but not quite naked. She'll look more impressive on visible.

Guess I'll throw my landfall dart at La Pesca...ish. As a weak Cat 1.

Got to get a few more hours sleep before work. See y'all later.


769. SLU
Quoting 744. CybrTeddy:

00z ECMWF, 240 hours. Ridge is weaker than the 12z. The potential storm is stronger, however.



Just a forecast, but that far North that far East would almost certainly be OTS. 360 hour EPS control is way out to sea. Safely East of even Bermuda.


On the GFS/GEFS/FIM system trending South into the BoC on each new run, Euro ensembles rainfall suggests most members in the Pacific, maybe a few in BoC. But looking like next weeks Gulf threat is going away, and the tropics overall, except for the Euro OTS storm, will be completely dead for two weeks, climatological peak or not. Euro system probably still takes Edouard, so Fay almost seems a give before October, but overall, the Euro monthlyies from the Spring of a deadly dull JAS (much above normal pressure, much below normal rain) will probably verify well.

Oh, I think they said formation of D storm latest since active era began in 1995, or more signs perhaps active era is ending a bit early than the usual length of the AMO. Most active time of season and models are nearly dead, and most boring season since 1994. 'It just takes one' to make a big year, but I have a funny feeling that 'one' isn't coming.
A tropical wave is expected to move off the coast of west Africa
on Thursday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for some development through the weekend while the system
moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014
700 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014

...DOLLY HEADING TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 95.7W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TUXPAN TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.7 WEST. DOLLY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK... THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT...AND MOVE INLAND BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE UNTIL
DOLLY MAKES LANDFALL.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...
185 KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS...NORTHERN VERACRUZ...AND EASTERN SAN LUIS
POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.
Quoting 766. sar2401:

LOL. Given the model performance this year with African waves, I just can't get myself too worked up until at least 24 hours after it hits water. There's still a lot of dry air and shear in the MDR, and the survival rate of these waves hasn't been good. I have a feeling that some people are just looking at every possible wave and hoping that one of them will actually become the Big One this year so they can yell "First!!!". :-)


Sar is right, especially with a season like this. Sometimes persistence is actually a good forecast. That's why the NHC is being so hesitant on African Easterly Waves this year. Remember that wave a few days ago in the C. Atl that blew up the entire blog and people were mad at the NHC for not labeling it an invest? Well guess what, the wave turned out to be a dud and didn't develop. NHC > the blog. Compared to that C. Atl wave a few days ago, this one has model support, but so have a few other waves that turned out to be a dud. NHC will wait till convection can persist over water once the wave leaves Africa and then will label it an invest.
watch out here
Quoting 770. EdMahmoud:



Just a forecast, but that far North that far East would almost certainly be OTS. 360 hour EPS control is way out to sea. Safely East of even Bermuda.


On the GFS/GEFS/FIM system trending South into the BoC on each new run, Euro ensembles rainfall suggests most members in the Pacific, maybe a few in BoC. But looking like next weeks Gulf threat is going away, and the tropics overall, except for the Euro OTS storm, will be completely dead for two weeks, climatological peak or not. Euro system probably still takes Edouard, so Fay almost seems a give before October, but overall, the Euro monthlyies from the Spring of a deadly dull JAS (much above normal pressure, much below normal rain) will probably verify well.

Oh, I think they said formation of D storm latest since active era began in 1995, or more signs perhaps active era is ending a bit early than the usual length of the AMO. Most active time of season and models are nearly dead, and most boring season since 1994. 'It just takes one' to make a big year, but I have a funny feeling that 'one' isn't coming.


I have mentioned that to a few friends of mine up here at FSU. I wonder how climate change could effect the Multi-decadal oscillation perhaps making it shorter? Maybe climate change will weaken the Atl season due to a weakening of the Hadley cell. Who knows, but it is interesting to see!
bold statement ed anything over a week is wishwash
00z operational CMC is ready for September it seems but not much support on the Ensembles

Hello, Dolly!

2014's Dolly will be the 3rd tropical storm/hurricane (with the name Dolly) to hit the western Gulf of Mexico coasts.

1996, 2008, 2014. All DOLLY landfall years .... in Mexico or S. Texas.

The Gulf of Mexico is rough this morning!
Quoting ncstorm:
00z CMC is ready for September it seems..





Yawn. Look at the time line it way out at 234hrs wish means its. Likely won't happen. If where going to look at model runs I would only look at them up too the 1st 150hrs after that point any thing that far out is unlikely too happen
At least the season isn't completely "dead", even though the systems haven't been much to brag about.

I know members that said we wouldn't see anything form in the next two weeks.

Then on Aug. 24th - Tropical Storm Christobal forms and then on Sept. 2, Tropical Storm Dolly forms. So that's two named systems in the past 10 days.

We've got 4 named storms and we still have two active months left in the season.

It's hard to believe, but we could still end up with close to an average season this year.
Quoting 779. Tazmanian:





Yawn. Look at the time line it way out at 234hrs wish means its. Likely won't happen. If where going to look at model runs I would only look at them up too the 1st 150hrs after that point any thing that far out is unlikely too happen


LOL Taz..You know what I yawn about? that El Nino that was/is supposed to happen..
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
At least the season isn't completely "dead", even though the systems haven't been much to brag about.

I know members that said we wouldn't see anything form in the next two weeks.

Then on Aug. 24th - Tropical Storm Christobal forms and then on Sept. 2, Tropical Storm Dolly forms. So that's two named systems in the past 10 days.

We've got 4 named storms and we still have two active months left in the season.

It's hard to believe, but we could still end up with close to an average season this year.



Am not seeing it. This hurricane season will this be like the last one but only it won't last march longer the window is closeing and I think we will only see 2 more name storms after that thing may really shut down sep and October dos not all ways means it's going to be active I think when we it mid sep I think it will really shut down out there and things will really be picking up in the E and W PAC. If you want a active season that's where it's going to be I really do not see march of any thing after dolley
Quoting ncstorm:


LOL Taz..You know what I yawn about? that El Nino that was/is supposed to happen..



And its on the way may be not has strong has be for but I think we will get a mod El Nio later this year and in to the 2015 hurricane season wish all so means the 2015 hurricane season will be vary slow to shut down if you want good storms look in the E and W PAC
784. beell
This is helpful...

Just to note that the waves over Africa are being enhanced by a CCKW passing through:

Quoting Tazmanian:



Am not seeing it. This hurricane season will this be like the last one but only it won't last march longer the window is closeing and I think we will only see 2 more name storms after that thing may really shut down sep and October dos not all ways means it's going to be active I think when we it mid sep I think it will really shut down out there and things will really be picking up in the E and W PAC. If you want a active season that's where it's going to be I really do not see march of any thing after dolley



We should see more than 2 more named storms. We will probably see at least 2 more named storms in Sept.
If we only have two more named storms I would be very suprised.
visible of dolly. she is half dressed but am looking for a quick ramp up on intensity. models were more south i believe than she is now
ECMWF Pouch model
00Z + 72

Quoting 788. Sfloridacat5:




We should see more than 2 more named storms. We will probably see at least 2 more named storms in Sept.
If we only have two more named storms I would be very suprised.


End of September & October will likely have an increase in activity with models showing the MJO moving back into a favourable phase in the Atlantic. The season is far from over. :)
06Z GFS wants to put another developing system in the BOC next week.
Hey guys been lurking for a few mins

So after a review GFS and GEM/CMC both show about 5 cyclones from now to 17 Sept so that would bring us to the dreaded I storm

Ver interesting

All I have to say is this season is far from over
I wish the wunderapp was easier to use on the phone. Mobile web doesn't help much either.
Quoting 780. Sfloridacat5:

At least the season isn't completely "dead", even though the systems haven't been much to brag about.

I know members that said we wouldn't see anything form in the next two weeks.

Then on Aug. 24th - Tropical Storm Christobal forms and then on Sept. 2, Tropical Storm Dolly forms. So that's two named systems in the past 10 days.

We've got 4 named storms and we still have two active months left in the season.

It's hard to believe, but we could still end up with close to an average season this year.


I rarely take anything most people say here seriously anyway.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Hey guys been lurking for a few mins

So after a review GFS and GEM/CMC both show about 5 cyclones from now to 17 Sept so that would bring us to the dreaded I storm

Ver interesting

All I have to say is this season is far from over



Your looking way past 150hrs wish likely means it won't happen
Quoting 782. Tazmanian:




Am not seeing it. This hurricane season will this be like the last one but only it won't last march longer the window is closeing and I think we will only see 2 more name storms after that thing may really shut down sep and October dos not all ways means it's going to be active I think when we it mid sep I think it will really shut down out there and things will really be picking up in the E and W PAC. If you want a active season that's where it's going to be I really do not see march of any thing after dolley


El Nino years certainly tend to stifle October activity. I do anticipate an abrupt end to the season.

If we ARE going to see an October storm, it'll probably be one occurring in the subtropics far away from land, where shear is less.
Quoting Envoirment:


End of September & October will likely have an increase in activity with models showing the MJO moving back into a favourable phase in the Atlantic. The season is far from over. :)


Out 300 hours and the GFS goes crazy. It's not to be trusted, but it does show there could be an increase in activity.

For entertainment purposes only. GFS at 300 hours.
Hi Taz, between you and Scott and all your Nino hype, you think you would give it a break on your Nino predictions and just let it play out, one way or another. Hopefully we get a Nino this winter and spring and hopefully it will change the patterns in the Atlantic that help form these tropical cyclones. On it lasting thru next summer lets get one first before we make these kind of statements, and their will be more than 2 named storms before the season ends.
Quoting 798. Sfloridacat5:



Out 300 hours and the GFS goes crazy. It's not to be trusted, but it does show there could be an increase in activity.

For entertainment purposes only. GFS at 300 hours.

Good entertainment for fishermen s.
There have been so many very slow hurricane seasons that a trend has developed. Check out this picture from 2009!

Quoting 790. Sfloridacat5:

ECMWF Pouch model
00Z + 72


A pouch making landfall in P.R.
Quoting Stormwatch247:
Hello, Dolly!

2014's Dolly will be the 3rd tropical storm/hurricane (with the name Dolly) to hit the western Gulf of Mexico coasts.

1996, 2008, 2014. All DOLLY landfall years .... in Mexico or S. Texas.

The Gulf of Mexico is rough this morning!


Quoting 801. CycloneOz:

There have been so many very slow hurricane seasons that a trend has developed. Check out this picture from 2009!




Brian, they've only been slow from a US standpoint. And even then only compared to the amount of named storms we've had; the landfalls have still been pretty average.
Sun is up over Dolly:




It's been a while since I posted here, but I've been following this blog all summer long, like I do every year since a really long time ago, and I've been enjoying alot of discussions over here (most of them), especially about the invest which resulted in OTS Cristobal. For some of you guys it was quite a big dissappointment at it went OTS, but for me it was great actually! I live in the Netherlands ( as some of you who might've ever seen me post before know xD) and August, my last month of summer break, was an absolute disaster. It all started when I came back from Greece, when ex-Bertha came to bring us scattered showers, near record cold temperatures and record amounts of percipation. Even when Bertha left us after a couple of days, the weather still wasn't even close to summer. It even turned out to be one of the wettest summers ever over here, and other West-European countries as well.

But now, unlike Bertha, Cristobal is moving far north of where I live, and thanks to that we benefit from a nice high pressure area which finally grants us some nice summer weather (exactly when school started, but it's better than nothing) :)

I don't really know why I typed all of that, but I just wanted to share it to you guys, and I also would like to compliment you guys for all the knowledge/updates etc you guys post over here, and also Doctor Masters for his great blogs as always. Keep it up, I'll sure be enjoying all of it:)

PS: when the remnants of a storm ever (maybe even this year, it's still possible) strike my area I'll try to report over here!
Quoting 798. Sfloridacat5:


Out 300 hours and the GFS goes crazy. It's not to be trusted, but it does show there could be an increase in activity.

For entertainment purposes only. GFS at 300 hours.


Yesterday's 18Z GFS 384 hrs also shows 540 thickness into upstate NY and New England

Quoting KoritheMan:


Brian, they've only been slow from a US standpoint. And even then only compared to the amount of named storms we've had; the landfalls have still been pretty average.


Bill was OTS...but we did get some weather in Bermuda.

It was the only time I came close to getting hurt. A very big tree limb cracked off as I was walking underneath it. It hit me in the head and shoulder...but I was wearing a helmet and shoulder pads. It didn't hurt a bit...but it would have without the protection I was wearing that night.

Look at the date of that picture. 8/21/2009..."B" storm. Very slow season....
Quoting 774. hurricanes2018:

watch out here
??
Quoting 801. CycloneOz:

There have been so many very slow hurricane seasons that a trend has developed. Check out this picture from 2009!




There's an Andrew chase from Coconut Grove by Michael Laca that shows a bunch of cloud to cloud lightning as the core comes ashore, but not cloud to ground like that. Cool pic.
Quoting 805. Envoirment:

Sun is up over Dolly:





What a short life for a TS.
Based on climatology we should see 5-6 more named storms.
Currently we're only 1 named storm behind an average season.
By Sept. 8th we should be up to 6 named systems to keep up with average.

So we're really not that far off an average season.

Quoting Tazmanian:



Your looking way past 150hrs wish likely means it won't happen

I'm not saying any such thing I'm just saying what's there
Don't tell that to me tell it to GFS
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Based on climatology we should see 5-6 more named storms.
Currently we're only 1 named storm behind an average season.
By Sept. 8th we should be up to 6 named systems to keep up with average.

So we're really not that far off an average season.




We are not going to see 5 to 6 more named storm get it in your heads wil will be lucky if we see only 2 more storms.
Quoting Chucktown:


Yesterday's 18Z GFS 384 hrs also shows 540 thickness into upstate NY and New England



300 hours is bad, but 384 is really bad. We know how the GFS goes crazy right at the end of it run.

But if you look at the 06Z GFS, the systems are already in progress at 216 hours. That's starting to get in the range where you want to pay attention. We'll have to see if there's any consistancy. The 12z may show something completely different.

But check out the 06z and you'll see the systems starting to take shape way down around the 200 hour mark.
Quoting Tazmanian:



We are not going to see 5 to 6 more named storm get it in your heads wil will be lucky if we see only 2 more storms.


I didn't say that. I was just stating what Climatology says.
If I had to guess I would say 4 more named systems. There's definitely going to be more than 2.
Dolly should appear on this radar later today:



Link
Quoting 809. prcane4you:

??
the weather modeles keep moving west on this like the last time but not no storm at all from the gfs saying a cat 2 hurricane and notting at all.
Quoting 815. Sfloridacat5:


300 hours is bad, but 384 is really bad. We know how the GFS goes crazy right at the end of it run.

But if you look at the 06Z GFS, the systems are already in progress at 216 hours. That's starting to get in the range where you want to pay attention. We'll have to see if there's any consistancy. The 12z may show something completely different.

But check out the 06z and you'll see the systems starting to take shape way down around the 200 hour mark.


The point is, it's the first full latitude trough being shown for meteorological fall. Overall synoptic pattern hasn't changed since last winter.
Quoting Chucktown:


The point is, it's he first full latitude trough being shown for meteorological fall. Overall synoptic pattern hasn't changed since last winter.


I got you now.
Good chance we'll see 1-2 storms off Africa in the coming weeks. 06z GFS, 00z CMC, 00z ECMWF, 00z UKMET all are showing either one or both systems emerging. Consensus seems to be the first one will be weaker (with the exception of the GFS, which has a tendency to blow everything up into a major hurricane off Africa), and the one behind it will be stronger. It's 8-10 days out, so the uncertainty is definitely still there, but this level of model support for an active period is something we have not seen this season. This is probably 2014's only chance to see a long tracked Cape Verde hurricane.


last week we had the same thing and notting happern here and the modeles had it move more west
I see Dolly is sticking with the trend of the last few years and only showing us half a storm. She has some time to strengthen still but I don't think she'll be a hurricane before making landfall. Of course, there's always that possibility for a big surprise with SSTs at 30+ degrees, so we'll see.
Quoting 816. Sfloridacat5:



I didn't say that. I was just stating what Climatology says.
If I had to guess I would say 4 more named systems. There's definitely going to be more than 2.



Ok will see how it plays out
Quoting Envoirment:
Dolly should appear on this radar later today:



Link


They've been having issues with this radar. You can see how its having problems north of the radar site but at least its working.
Hopefully it keeps working and shows the system as it moves closer to the coast.
I was totally ready in 2011 for live broadcasting hurricane landfalls as well as HD taping my adventures in the hopes that I'd get a reality TV show gig...

But 2011 was another slow year for landfalling hurricanes, as was 2012...so I retired.

There is a chance I'll chase again in 2015...we'll see.

I produced a demo reel for the reality TV show that never happened.

Here it is. It's two minutes long.

Morning.

Not very impressive and running out of time.


Mid shear?


Upper shear isn't bad.




Quoting 819. Chucktown:



The point is, it's the first full latitude trough being shown for meteorological fall. Overall synoptic pattern hasn't changed since last winter.

expected or average.
Dolly is starting to show up on the Brownsville radar too.
Quoting 814. Tazmanian:




We are not going to see 5 to 6 more named storm get it in your heads wil will be lucky if we see only 2 more storms.

Taz, come on. Many respectable organizations are predicting between 9-11 storms. 5 or 6 more will bring us to 9 or 10. This is not impossible. We will see two more storms and probably a few more.
Good morning. Here is a live shot of the South Padre Surf Cam in South Padre Island Texas. This morning we have mostly sunny skies and a SE wind around 15-20, surf is slowly building at around 4-6' this morning and tides are slightly above normal. Expecting surf to build rapidly overnight up to 10' or more Wednesday. http://www.spadre.com/southpadresurfcam.jpg



what is going on at 32 west
835. JRRP
HWRF

Quoting 833. SPadre:

Good morning. Here is a live shot of the South Padre Surf Cam in South Padre Island Texas. This morning we have mostly sunny skies and a SE wind around 15-20, surf is slowly building at around 4-6' this morning and tides are slightly above normal. Expecting surf to build rapidly overnight up to 10' or more Wednesday. http://www.spadre.com/southpadresurfcam.jpg


The thing that impressed me most about my many visits to S. Padre Island was how the Gulf seemed almost level with the beach in many places.

10 feet of surf at those locations most likely rates as a storm surge event.
Over-night evolution

Looking at the models it seems like the next system in the western Caribbean forms down in the Southern Carribean/Central America and moves N.W. towards the BOC.

So we'll need to watch that area off Central America to see if anything starts to spin up this weekend towards the beginning of next week.

if we get invest 90L maybe hitting the wind shear i saw on that map
Yes CycloneOz, SPI sits at sea level with no seawall, only some small dunes. I live on the second floor :)
We had a much worse Dolly a few years ago, lucking out on this one. I don't think we will see any surge flooding unless Dolly bumps a little more northward. Any requests for pics or other info from here let me know.
Quoting 807. Chucktown:



Yesterday's 18Z GFS 384 hrs also shows 540 thickness into upstate NY and New England


maybe a bad run at this time..
Quoting CycloneOz:


The thing that impressed me most about my many visits to S. Padre Island was how the Gulf seemed almost level with the beach in many places.

10 feet of surf at those locations most likely rates as a storm surge event.


That's why you need to be very good at duck diving when the surf gets big in Texas. The surf breaks way offshore when the surf gets big. It can be a lot of work to make it out to the outside break. I lived near the beach in Corpus Christi and surfed the Texas breaks for about 20 years.
The same sized waves can be found really close to shore over on the Eastcoast of Florida. You do one or two duck dives and you're in the line up.
Those same sized waves in Texas might require many duck dives and hard paddling to get out.


i see two fish storms here.
Quoting 842. Sfloridacat5:



That why you need to be very good at duck diving when the surf gets big in Texas. It can be a lot of work to make it out to the outside break. I lived near the beach in Corpus Christi and surfed the Texas breaks for about 20 years.
The same sized waves can be found really close to shore over on the Eastcoast of Florida. You do one or two duck dive and you're in the line up.
Those same sized waves in Texas might require many duck dives and hard paddling to get out.


... and it also means rides possible from the end of the half mile long jetty to the beach :) which is where I will be tomorrow.
This is a picture of the only injury I ever received from my hurricane chasing adventures. It is an unofficial injury because hit happened during testing of my hurricane gear.

I had a friend with one of those football passing machines (two tires rotating against each other.) I had him launch pieces of 2X4 boards at me while I wore my Category 5 hurricane gear. The eye protection I used was safety glasses, but one of the boards hit me right below them on the left side.

After spending 5 minutes in the fetal position on the ground, I was able to walk it off. But boy did it sting...and it left a nice mark, too.

Quoting 842. Sfloridacat5:



That's why you need to be very good at duck diving when the surf gets big in Texas. The surf breaks way offshore when the surf gets big. It can be a lot of work to make it out to the outside break. I lived near the beach in Corpus Christi and surfed the Texas breaks for about 20 years.
The same sized waves can be found really close to shore over on the Eastcoast of Florida. You do one or two duck dives and you're in the line up.
Those same sized waves in Texas might require many duck dives and hard paddling to get out.


In large surf there is a powerful rip next to the jetty that will easily take you out to the end of the jetty, but if you lose your board you are in for a very demanding swim or a risky climb up onto the jetty.
Quoting 840. SPadre:

Yes CycloneOz, SPI sits at sea level with no seawall, only some small dunes. I live on the second floor :)
We had a much worse Dolly a few years ago, lucking out on this one. I don't think we will see any surge flooding unless Dolly bumps a little more northward. Any requests for pics or other info from here let me know.
Quoting 832. sporteguy03:


Taz, come on. Many respectable organizations are predicting between 9-11 storms. 5 or 6 more will bring us to 9 or 10. This is not impossible. We will see two more storms and probably a few more.

4 to 6 I think
fall is always tricky
cause the storms form and travel from sw to ne
cv season will be done soon
then its close to home season
mid to late fall
good morning folks...back from a little trip to california........watched dolly form....first named storm of september......in a year of a forming el nino....the average named storms for september is 3.2
lowest amount of named storms in september of an el nino forming year is......1......and highest is 8
00z UKMET showing some interest in the GOM

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 29.5N 87.2W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 07.09.2014 29.5N 87.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 08.09.2014 29.2N 87.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
enso 3.4 region is steady with a slight climb.......this reading at .0.21 c anomaly



South Padre Island during hurricane Katrina

Link
JeffMasters has created a new entry.

way out

855. JRRP
Quoting ricderr:
lowest amount of named storms in september of an el nino forming year is......1......and highest is 8

in fact 8 NS in september is the record high of any season in the atlantic
2002 and 2010
Quoting SPadre:
South Padre Island during hurricane Katrina

Link


Do you know if that was on the north or south side of the Jetty?
South Padre Island is going to get a whole lot more famous in the next coming years. Might become a second Cape Canaveral..
Quoting 856. Sfloridacat5:



Do you know if that was on the north or south side of the Jetty?

That is the end of the north jetty. Those waves were reforms from the outside break that was much bigger.
Quoting 857. CybrTeddy:

South Padre Island is going to get a whole lot more famous in the next coming years. Might become a second Cape Canaveral..


You know, its kind of hard to imagine that in this tiny little town. The launch pad is just a few miles from here along the back side of the dune line at Boca Chica, also at near sea level, so a major hurricane would be disastrous for SpaceX.
But the payoff can be 400+ yard rides :-)

SE coast flat as a pancake for next 5 days at least :-(

Quoting 842. Sfloridacat5:



That's why you need to be very good at duck diving when the surf gets big in Texas. The surf breaks way offshore when the surf gets big. It can be a lot of work to make it out to the outside break. I lived near the beach in Corpus Christi and surfed the Texas breaks for about 20 years.
The same sized waves can be found really close to shore over on the Eastcoast of Florida. You do one or two duck dives and you're in the line up.
Those same sized waves in Texas might require many duck dives and hard paddling to get out.
Lordy, lordy guns need only apply. Looks more like Sunset Beach. Wouldn't be surprised if my old buddy Gene G. was out there killing it somewhere. On a pintail longboard no doubt.

Quoting 852. SPadre:

South Padre Island during hurricane Katrina

Link