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Heavy Rains From 99L Drench Belize and Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:41 PM GMT on August 31, 2014

Tropical wave 99L is spreading heavy rains over Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula as the storm heads west-northwest at about 10 mph. Belize radar shows little rotation to 99L's echoes, and satellite loops on Sunday morning showed the heavy thunderstorm activity was poorly organized, with few low-level spiral bands. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) were very warm, near 29.5°C (85°F), and wind shear was moderate, 10 - 20 knots. These conditions are favorable for development, but 99L will not be able to develop until it finishes crossing Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and emerges into the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on Monday. The 8 am Sunday run of the SHIPS model predicted that conditions will remain favorable for development over Bay of Campeche during the remainder of the week, with mpderate wind shear, a moist atmosphere, and warm SSTs of 29.5°C (85°F.) None of our three reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation showed 99L developing in their Sunday morning runs, though. In their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 99L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 30% and 50%, respectively. If a tropical storm does form in the Bay of Campeche, the most likely track would be to the west-northwest or northwest, with landfall occurring on the Mexican coast south of Texas on Wednesday. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft has been tasked to investigate 99L on Monday afternoon, if necessary.

Hurricane expert Steve Gregory has a more detailed look at the tropics in his latest blog post.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 99L in the Western Caribbean.

Death Valley ‘Sliding Rocks’ Mystery Resolved
Scientists have long puzzled over how huge rocks on Death Valley's Racetrack Playa managed to slide over the dry lake bed, leaving tracks hundred of feet long. The mystery was solved last week, as detailed by wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, in his latest blog post.


Figure 2. Mysterious tracks left by sliding rocks in the dry lakebed of Death Valley's Racetrack Playa as captured by wunderphotographer PugetSoundPost on March 25, 2013.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 487. Hurricanes101:



Eh, Tip was the most intense ever (supposedly), but its impact on land were small

The list they came up with for US storms factored in intensity, loss of life and damage.


Factoring that in, I would put the Bhola cyclone of 1970 top of the list because it is the deadliest cyclone in world history


This is why we need qualifications for the list.
Quoting 490. Hurricanes101:



my original posted noted it was top 10 US hurricanes lol

Id also throw Ivan and Ike in there somewhere too


Should have scrolled down further I suppose. Those two are also very good choices, I'd say Ivan and Hugo belong there in the top 10, Ike, Charley, Frederic, San Ciriaco, and Donna to round out the top 15 for me with Sandy and Georges on the outside looking in.
Quoting 502. win1gamegiantsplease:



Should have scrolled down further I suppose. Those two are also very good choices, I'd say Ivan and Hugo belong there in the top 10, Ike, Charley, Frederic, San Ciriaco, Sandy tied with Donna to round out the top 15 for me with Georges on the outside looking in.


I like your nick. IF the Giants play the dolphins, you'll get your wish.
504. TXCWC
Difficult to tell but to my untrained eye appears as if the broad area of circulation is now entering the Bay:

Matches the initialization point of the 06Z runs as well - also appears to be a slight shift north in many of the tracks
6Z SHIPS, and 0Z GFDL and HWRF suggest 99L may not even take the name 'Dolly'. No 0Z GEFS show a low event to 1004 mb from 99L, and 6Z SHIPS still using BAMM not supper secret NHC track.
Quoting 505. EdMahmoud:

6Z SHIPS, and 0Z GFDL and HWRF suggest 99L may not even take the name 'Dolly'. No 0Z GEFS show a low event to 1004 mb from 99L, and 6Z SHIPS still using BAMM not supper secret NHC track.
The topography of the BOC can make storms do magic. Like Karl attaining cat 3 or Td 2( Barry) and Fernand attaining ts intensity. Another ex was td 8 that became Helene in 2012. So it can happen even if models don't show it.
Sandy ahead of Hugo or Carla is recent bias and Northeastern bias from a commercial enterprise that seeks to maximize profit via ratings.

Katrina and 1900 both basically destroyed what were major American cities, 1900 as a Cat 4 with a higher death toll, but again, a bias towards recent memory.

TWC is profit first, public safety second, science down the list (the vague criteria for naming Winter storms has an amazing NE bias). Not a slam on TWC really, as a nerd I detest the emphasis now on non-weather related programming like the gem hunting show and fishing shows, but they exist to make a profit, not make weather nerds happy. And obviously non-weather shows have better ratings when the weather isn't exciting. They show Dr. Forbes during major severe outbreaks instead of the non-weather shows, at least.

I do wish they'd at least pickup the old Discovery tornado chasing show, Reed Timmer seems involved with TWC now, they could show older reruns plus some new episodes with Simon and Justin. S&J seems pretty low budget. apparently the number of camera vehicles and support crew chasing the chasers made the TDC show non-economic. Don't know why a reduced number of chasers, and achieving what they call synergy in the business world with the existing TWC 'tornado hunt' road crew wouldn't work. And unlike a weak imitation of 'Wicked Tuna', it would be real weather.
Quoting 506. allancalderini:

The topography of the BOC can make storms do magic. Like Karl attaining cat 3 or Td 2( Barry) and Fernand attaining ts intensity. Another ex was td 8 that became Helene in 2012. So it can happen even if models don't show it.


Convection near the center near D-max would be nice if it is to be an over-achiever.


Edit to add- impossible, for some reason, to type quickly on WU blog. Maybe the window that keeps flashing to the right of the box is why WU eats letters and the such and requires re-typing and fixing mistakes while typing.
Bahamas will need to be watched the next few days..

Quoting 488. sar2401:

It is always better to say right out what you think without trying to prove anything much: for all our proofs are only variations of our opinions, and the contrary-minded listen neither to one nor the other.

Johann Wolfgang von Goethe (1749-1832)



In other words, you will naturally seek out the data that supports your opinion in an argument. Or thats the way it seems to me. Of course, thats if you're a logical person, I guess.

If you aren't logical, you wouldn't even bother to seek the data for support.


IMHO of course
Quoting 510. K8eCane:




In other words, you will naturally seek out the data that supports your opinion in an argument. Or thats the way it seems to me. Of course, thats if you're a logical person, I guess.

If you aren't logical, you wouldn't even bother to seek the data for support.


IMHO of course


If you're logical you'll keep an open mind. Not go in expecting anything.
Quoting 510. K8eCane:




In other words, you will naturally seek out the data that supports your opinion in an argument. Or thats the way it seems to me. Of course, thats if you're a logical person, I guess.

If you aren't logical, you wouldn't even bother to seek the data for support.


IMHO of course



Oh i dont know. Why yall want to ask me such difficult questions so early??

Wait a minute. No one asked me anything.

OK now i am darn close to talking to myself.

I am going to bed.
Morning Kori!
Euro has an initial CV system that weakens as it drifts NW, and then a second system which is fairly weak, but moving almost due West in the open Atlantic Day 9 to Day 10. Approaching 40W by then, might be a long tracker, the rare CV system that actually impacts the Caribbean or North America. Rare but high impact. Euro does have a solid ridge all the way to North America by then. Of course, even if Euro is correct on 500 mb pattern at 10 days, that is a long way to come without something picking it up along the way.

Euro might be showing GEFS Caribbean mischief Day 8 and 9, but weak and on Pacific side of Central America.

10 day forecast, even from the Euro, subject to change.





I got a one hour ban the last time I mentioned people shouldn't post about politics, while not criticizing or endorsing the political views of either side in the vigorous political debate.

So back to bed now, my ban should be up by the time I wake up.
Quoting 516. EdMahmoud:

I got a one hour ban the last time I mentioned people shouldn't post about politics, while not criticizing or endorsing the political views of either side in the vigorous political debate.

So back to bed now, my ban should be up by the time I wake up.


I'd rather talk about religion, to be honest.
Quoting 513. K8eCane:

Morning Kori!


Good morning! Migraines suck. I still have a lingering one.
Quoting 516. EdMahmoud:

I got a one hour ban the last time I mentioned people shouldn't post about politics, while not criticizing or endorsing the political views of either side in the vigorous political debate.

So back to bed now, my ban should be up by the time I wake up.
Obviously Scott feels that Dax is going to change because he moved away from FL....
[looks at headline]
[looks at Scott's comment]
[facepalm]

Good Monday morning to all you holidaying people, and a grumpy Monday morning to the rest of us.... :o)
Quoting 518. KoritheMan:



Good morning! Migraines suck. I still have a lingering one.
I know the feeling... try to get away from them suckers if at all possible. Sometimes you can't escape....
good morning night owls i dont know about your characters by my characters hurricane forecast 2014 needs 99 to be designated.
Happy Labor Day!

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located south of Campeche on the
western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula is producing a large area of
showers and scattered thunderstorms. This system is showing signs of
organization while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph, and
development of a tropical depression will be possible when the
center of the disturbance moves over the warm waters of the Bay of
Campeche later today and into Tuesday. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this
afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of development, this system will
produce heavy rainfall across the Yucatan Peninsula and southeastern
Mexico today and Tuesday, and across portions of eastern mainland
Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

invest 99L 70%
Quoting 444. GTstormChaserCaleb:

IMO the Fort Lauderdale Hurricane of 1947 was one of the more special storms due to its track, it is also one of the reasons why I never discount a Cape Verde Hurricane affecting the US.




You are right! The 1947 Hurricane struck Florida and was very destructive. It originated in the CV area. The Hillsboro Lighthouse in Pompano Beach, FL recorded a wind gust of 155MPH!

The hurricane continued WNW through the Gulf, and made a direct landfall in New Orleans, LA, and the eye also passed over Baton Rouge, LA. Wind Gusts reached 125MPH. Old-timers along the Central Gulf Coast still remember this powerful hurricane! It caused a lot of damage in SE Louisiana and S. Mississippi.
Can someone explain what is happening in this image. The way the shear is in a loop around the cyclone looks interesting. Is this common, because I don't think I've noticed it before
WHAT UP WITH THIS HOT WEATHER ON THE EAST COAST its going to be 95F TODAY
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure is located over the eastern Bay
of Campeche. Environmental conditions appear to be favorable for
some development, and this system could become a tropical depression
within the next day or two as it moves west-northwestward near 10
mph. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the low this afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of
development, this system will produce heavy rainfall across the
Yucatan Peninsula and southeastern Mexico today and Tuesday, and
across portions of eastern mainland Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
Deleted post - image was causing computer issues
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure is located over the eastern Bay
of Campeche. Environmental conditions appear to be favorable for
some development, and this system could become a tropical depression
within the next day or two as it moves west-northwestward near 10
mph. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the low this afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of
development, this system will produce heavy rainfall across the
Yucatan Peninsula and southeastern Mexico today and Tuesday, and
across portions of eastern mainland Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
starting to see more tropical waves now
invest 99L will be a T.D BY monday night
Quoting K8eCane:



In other words, you will naturally seek out the data that supports your opinion in an argument. Or thats the way it seems to me. Of course, thats if you're a logical person, I guess.

If you aren't logical, you wouldn't even bother to seek the data for support.


IMHO of course

I think that's the definition of confirmation bias.

FWIW I think Goethe was being a bit sarcastic.
Quoting 520. BahaHurican:

... try to get away from them suckers if at all possible. Sometimes you can't escape....


MOSQUITOS!!!!!
536. Siker
Quoting nwobilderburg:
Can someone explain what is happening in this image. The way the shear is in a loop around the cyclone looks interesting. Is this common, because I don't think I've noticed it before


That's an anticyclone, so it isn't "real shear", at least not for the storm with the anticyclone above it, it's just better outflow.
Quoting 504. TXCWC:

Difficult to tell but to my untrained eye appears as if the broad area of circulation is now entering the Bay:

Matches the initialization point of the 06Z runs as well - also appears to be a slight shift north in many of the tracks


Where did you get that radar image? That's pretty cool!
Quoting jdukes:

Where did you get that radar image? That's pretty cool!


http://smn.cna.gob.mx/index.php?option=com_conten t&view=article&id=14&Itemid=84

Click on Subancuy
Quoting 538. Sfloridacat5:



http://smn.cna.gob.mx/index.php?option=com_conten t&view=article&id=14&Itemid=84

Click on Subancuy

Thanks!
Quoting 534. bappit:


I think that's the definition of confirmation bias.

FWIW I think Goethe was being a bit sarcastic.



Confirmation bias
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Confirmation bias, also called myside bias, is the tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one's beliefs or hypotheses.[Note 1][1] People display this bias when they gather or remember information selectively, or when they interpret it in a biased way. The effect is stronger for emotionally charged issues and for deeply entrenched beliefs. People also tend to interpret ambiguous evidence as supporting their existing position. Biased search, interpretation and memory have been invoked to explain attitude polarization (when a disagreement becomes more extreme even though the different parties are exposed to the same evidence), belief perseverance (when beliefs persist after the evidence for them is shown to be false), the irrational primacy effect (a greater reliance on information encountered early in a series) and illusory correlation (when people falsely perceive an association between two events or situations).

A series of experiments in the 1960s suggested that people are biased toward confirming their existing beliefs. Later work re-interpreted these results as a tendency to test ideas in a one-sided way, focusing on one possibility and ignoring alternatives. In certain situations, this tendency can bias people's conclusions. Explanations for the observed biases include wishful thinking and the limited human capacity to process information. Another explanation is that people show confirmation bias because they are weighing up the costs of being wrong, rather than investigating in a neutral, scientific way.

Confirmation biases contribute to overconfidence in personal beliefs and can maintain or strengthen beliefs in the face of contrary evidence. Poor decisions due to these biases have been found in political and organizational contexts.[2][Note 2]

Quoting K8eCane:

See, I'm right! :)
Quoting 542. bappit:


See, I'm right! :)


Yep! I didnt doubt but a second lol
Quoting 541. CybrTeddy:


very funny
Quoting 507. EdMahmoud:

Sandy ahead of Hugo or Carla is recent bias and Northeastern bias from a commercial enterprise that seeks to maximize profit via ratings.

Katrina and 1900 both basically destroyed what were major American cities, 1900 as a Cat 4 with a higher death toll, but again, a bias towards recent memory.

TWC is profit first, public safety second, science down the list (the vague criteria for naming Winter storms has an amazing NE bias). Not a slam on TWC really, as a nerd I detest the emphasis now on non-weather related programming like the gem hunting show and fishing shows, but they exist to make a profit, not make weather nerds happy. And obviously non-weather shows have better ratings when the weather isn't exciting. They show Dr. Forbes during major severe outbreaks instead of the non-weather shows, at least.

I do wish they'd at least pickup the old Discovery tornado chasing show, Reed Timmer seems involved with TWC now, they could show older reruns plus some new episodes with Simon and Justin. S&J seems pretty low budget. apparently the number of camera vehicles and support crew chasing the chasers made the TDC show non-economic. Don't know why a reduced number of chasers, and achieving what they call synergy in the business world with the existing TWC 'tornado hunt' road crew wouldn't work. And unlike a weak imitation of 'Wicked Tuna', it would be real weather.
Putting Sandy ahead of The New England Hurricane of 38 is part of that bias, the Hurricane of 38 was such an anomaly because it came up the coast at 65 mph so one went out for lunch and it was sunny and nice out, by the evening commute out of Providence at 5:30 the city was beginning to fill with sea water and there were hurricane conditions, 100s of people died as the drowned trapped in streetcars.

Much of Sandys damage was done because of the beach house Boom of the late 1900s, not the actual strength of the storm, Sandy had a surge of 12 feet peak, 38' was double that.
Wikipedia

—Michael Shermer[22]
Confirmation biases are not limited to the collection of evidence. Even if two individuals have the same information, the way they interpret it can be biased.

Quoting 541. CybrTeddy:


I see a few spins w/in 99L, but if I had to wager on one it would be the one at 20.1 N, 90.1W.
Watch out TX...in 2-3 weeks lol

Quoting BahaHurican:
Obviously Scott feels that Dax is going to change because he moved away from FL....
[looks at headline]
[looks at Scott's comment]
[facepalm]

Good Monday morning to all you holidaying people, and a grumpy Monday morning to the rest of us.... :o)

Which Dax you talking about?
Quoting 552. win1gamegiantsplease:

Watch out TX...in 2-3 weeks lol




More like watch out Mexico... Of course its in Fantasy land time frame.
Quoting 553. 62901IL:


Which Dax you talking about?


Me... apparently... AS I moved from FL to AK.
Quoting Dakster:


Me... apparently... AS I moved from FL to AK.

Shoulda guessed.


invest 99L
Quoting 556. 62901IL:


Shoulda guessed.


Haven't seen you posting in a while. Hope all is good with you. Still coming around to check on tropical systems?

I am still interesting in them (and actually I still have my house in Miami...)
Quoting 500. Dakster:



He likes Obama's package?
Politics Dak.?..with the tropix stormin like they are...reported....jk...really jk...pfft
Have a Happy and safe Labor Day wundergrounder's and remember,

All wealth is built on Labor'
INVEST 99l ON THE MOVE
Quoting 560. Patrap:

Have a Happy and safe Labor Day wundergrounder's and remember,

All wealth is built on Labor'
No work is insignificant. All labor that uplifts humanity has dignity and importance and should be undertaken with painstaking excellence. Dr Martin Luther King, Jr.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Way out but interesting..Fall is approaching.
That ULL near the Bahamas seems to be stealing a lot of moisture from 99L.