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Invest 99L in Western Caribbean a Threat to Develop on Monday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:32 PM GMT on August 30, 2014

A tropical wave in the Western Caribbean was designated Invest 99L by the National Hurricane Center on Friday night, and is headed west-northwest at about 15 mph. Satellite loops on Saturday morning showed that 99L had a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorms, but these thunderstorms were poorly organized. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) were very warm, near 29°C (84°F), and wind shear was moderate, 10 - 20 knots. Although these conditions are favorable for development, 99L will likely not have enough time to develop before crossing Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday. The 8 am Saturday run of the SHIPS model predicted that conditions will be even more favorable for development on Monday when the wave will emerge in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. Wind shear will remain moderate, the atmosphere will be moister, and SSTs will be warmer: 29.5°C (85°F.) One of our three reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation, the GFS, showed some weak development occurring in the Bay of Campeche on Tuesday. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 99L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 10% and 40%, respectively. The semi-circular ring of high terrain along the southern edge of the Bay of Campeche is known to aid in generating the counter-clockwise spiraling winds needed to assist in spinning up a new tropical storm, and given the propensity of tropical storms to quickly spin up in the Bay of Campeche, I'd put the 5-day development odds at 50%. If a tropical storm does form in the Bay of Campeche, the most likely track would be to the west-northwest or northwest towards the Mexican coast south of Texas. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft has been tasked to investigate 99L on Monday afternoon, if necessary.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 99L in the Western Caribbean.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Not lookin' too shabby this evening.








We'll have to see how quickly it can brake away from the itcz and monsoon trough.




It needs to gain latitude if it is to do anything. It is sustaining some nice convection to the west of the low and that's been a tough thing to accomplish with most previous storms. Most of all though it needs to gain latitude and break away from the itcz/trof or it risks running into SA. If it gets into the Caribbean with the amount of moisture there now, it'd likely develop or intensify. That's a good ways down the road, so for now I'd just relax, see how dynamics pan out and enjoy the show. Wink twice at the model if you want the real outcome.
Quoting sar2401:

This is exactly what I hate about the new site. How could the programmers not catch things like this?



For user like me

Here the link too the old site


Link




The new site sucks on iPad Air
I'm going out to play, you all have fun with the tw/L. bbl
's
Quoting 500. StormJunkie:



They'll get to if they need to. It's in no man's land.

Not to be a wise-ass.....:), but seems like you're saying maybe the NHC should have tweeted.."We'll get around to it if need be".
.
The 8PM TWD is fine. I don't like that tweet. If they're going to tweet to begin with why can't they tweet..."When a TD possibility becomes greater than 10% then we make the yellow area".
Chatanika Loop, Eagle River, Alaska (PWS)
Updated: 7:00 PM AKDT on August 30, 2014
Clear
57.0 °F
Clear
Humidity: 49%
Dew Point: 38 °F
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 3.0 mph
Pressure: 29.54 in (Steady)

Nice Weather up there Dakster.....
Quoting 492. scott39:


my bad about this post. To answer your question, it was Mobile Al.
This new site is screwed up. Thanks for the old Taz!
510. SLU
Quoting 493. JLPR2:

Hmm...





This one's got some gas!
Quoting scott39:
This new site is screwed up. Thanks for the old Taz!


Welcome
Quoting 476. sar2401:

I think you've had enough cervaza.
I need one, maybe the itchy in my throat and nose would get away.
Quoting 493. JLPR2:

Hmm...



Lol if tomorrow its gone, I would not be surprised.
Quoting 439. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Our only two hurricanes, Humberto and Ingrid, formed with the aid of the upward MJO in early September last year.
I am sorry but if I remember the MJO is not that of a big determinant factor as it for the early and last part of the season. It might help moist the environment and help waves but its not that big as it is for the parts mention above.
Quoting 513. allancalderini:

I am sorry but if I remember the MJO is not that of a big determinant factor as it for the early and last part of the season. It might help moist the environment and help waves but its not that big as it is for the parts mention above.

It might not have as much of an influence compared to early in the season since, climatologically, conditions are more favorable for tropical cyclones during the peak months, but it certainly has an influence.
Under the kind of 500 mb pattern we're in (east coast ridge), the models are likely downplaying the enhanced precipitation (or at least near normal) that should occur in the western Atlantic. They're likely right about the MDR, but we could see a few spinups in the western Atlantic region next month.
Jesus Christ, guys:

...Record daily maximum rainfall set at Lake Charles...

a record rainfall of 7.78 inches was set at Lake Charles today. This breaks the old record of 2.5 set in 1982.


Talk about smashing a record.
Dang! I go to the bar for a beer and there's like three comments. Slow night?

To add to my earlier post, that vorticity that's west of cv's may either pull the L out of the monsoon trof and become one and its own entity or it may just become one big swirling mess and slam into South America. Hard to tell at this point if it'll try to become something or not. It looks healthy at least. I like that blob west of the low. That may help keep the dry air at bay. I alluded to this in my last post. That dry catl/Saharan air/dust has choked off everything out there this season. it mainly was channeled through the n and w quad into the center. Having that strong convection there may help isolate the moisture envelope from dry air intrusion. That has been the killer both last season and this one, as well as a strange ability to vertically stack or stay so. I suppose it's a fairly direct correlation. Shear seems low enough in the vicinity to allow it to consolidate and progress. Bottom line though is it needs to break away from the monsoon trof and gain latitude.
Quoting 515. KoritheMan:

Under the kind of 500 mb pattern we're in (east coast ridge), the models are likely downplaying the enhanced precipitation (or at least near normal) that should occur in the western Atlantic. They're likely right about the MDR, but we could see a few spinups in the western Atlantic region next month.




Quoting 505. CosmicEvents:


Not to be a wise-ass.....:), but seems like you're saying maybe the NHC should have tweeted.."We'll get around to it if need be".
.
The 8PM TWD is fine. I don't like that tweet. If they're going to tweet to begin with why can't they tweet..."When a TD possibility becomes greater than 10% then we make the yellow area".



lol...

Think maybe they are trying to avoid defining criteria for the x's? Especially the yellow ones. Sort of gives them a little freedom to use them more liberally with systems near land, and a little more cautiously with systems in the middle of ...

I don't know. I don't tweet so it really didn't bother me. Also doesn't bother me if they think it has a 40% chance; but hold off for another 24 on the yellow x.
520. FOREX
Quoting 468. catman007:

Central Atlantic Tropical Low could be a threat, it has been very persistent .


nHC not impressed. hmmmm.
I went to the Florida vs Idaho football game and it was delayed about 2 hours & 45 minutes. After the opening kickoff, both teams were called off the field. The game was cancelled do to Lightning strikes from locally heavy thunder showers in Gainesville, FL. The game was supposed to kickoff shortly after 7:00 PM & it was cancelled around 10:40 PM.
Quoting 518. TropicalAnalystwx13:








So there's shear in the Caribbean? Big deal.
Quoting 518. TropicalAnalystwx13:








And that's why I'm not so confident about this one in the carib. Looks good now, but environments do change.
524. FOREX
Quoting 521. GainesvilleGator:

I went to the Florida vs Idaho football game and it was delayed about 2 hours & 45 minutes. After the opening kickoff, both teams were called off the field. The game was cancelled do to Lightning strikes from locally heavy thunder showers in Gainesville, FL. The game was supposed to kickoff shortly after 7:00 PM & it was cancelled around 10:40 PM.
that sucks.
Quoting 520. FOREX:



nHC not impressed. hmmmm.


Neither is the GFS. Sometimes these supercomputers and trained professionals are smarter than they look. They may actually know more than we know. Damnedest thing.

526. Siker
Quoting KoritheMan:
Under the kind of 500 mb pattern we're in (east coast ridge), the models are likely downplaying the enhanced precipitation (or at least near normal) that should occur in the western Atlantic. They're likely right about the MDR, but we could see a few spinups in the western Atlantic region next month.


Guessing you like the trends with the last few runs of the GEFS then? 18z had some solid hurricanes in the Gulf as a result of more NW Caribbean / Gulf development beginning about a week from now.
Quoting 521. GainesvilleGator:

I went to the Florida vs Idaho football game and it was delayed about 2 hours & 45 minutes. After the opening kickoff, both teams were called off the field. The game was cancelled do to Lightning strikes from locally heavy thunder showers in Gainesville, FL. The game was supposed to kickoff shortly after 7:00 PM & it was cancelled around 10:40 PM.


:(
One thing of note is the GFS keeps convective activity in the Western Caribbean.

Quoting 526. Siker:



Guessing you like the trends with the last few runs of the GEFS then? 18z had some solid hurricanes in the Gulf as a result of more NW Caribbean / Gulf development beginning about a week from now.


Since some of the ensembles are pointing toward Louisiana and a Louisiana solution in a hypothetical development scenario isn't climatologically unfavored in September (hooray run-on sentence! :D), I'm definitely at least fantasizing about the possibility, haha.

But in all seriousness, I'd prefer to wait for a few more days worth of consistency before believing it. The region the GFS wants to develop should stay wet in this kind of pattern. Plus we know the actual wave intended to trigger this event is there.
Quoting 523. GatorWX:



And that's why I'm not so confident about this one in the carib. Looks good now, but environments do change.
well if you call that LOOK GOOD,lol
531. Siker
Quoting KoritheMan:


Since some of the ensembles are pointing toward Louisiana and a Louisiana solution in a hypothetical development scenario isn't climatologically unfavored in September (hooray run-on sentence! :D), I'm definitely at least fantasizing about the possibility, haha.

But in all seriousness, I'd prefer to wait for a few more days worth of consistency before believing it. The region the GFS wants to develop should stay wet in this kind of pattern. Plus we know the actual wave intended to trigger this event is there.


Yeah I understand, after all this wave had insane ensemble support when it was over Africa, we saw how that turned out; but as you said the setup should be favorable for things to try to brew down there so we'll see! I'm in N.O. by the way.
Quoting 522. KoritheMan:



So there's shear in the Caribbean? Big deal.

Shear across the Gulf and Caribbean, large-scale sinking with the MJO focused in the West Pacific, localized sinking with the strongest convectively-suppressed kelvin wave of the season passing through.

Color me unimpressed.
Quoting 532. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Shear across the Gulf and Caribbean, large-scale sinking with the MJO focused in the West Pacific, localized sinking with the strongest convectively-suppressed kelvin wave of the season passing through.

Color me unimpressed.


There isn't a lot of shear in the Gulf or off the east coast in those images you posted. Maybe the extreme southern Gulf.

I don't expect the models to handle the MJO well in this kind of pattern; they already do poorly as it is even when it's not there.

Main focus should still be in the Pacific, but the expectation of a bone dry Atlantic is a little premature, imo.

We'll see. I still only expect 3 storms next month.
lol,

"Florida Field became unplayable after hours of downpours. The season opener for both teams started after a nearly three-hour lightning delay - and then stopped after 10 seconds."

Ughh. Still sittin' on a 7 game losing streak.

10 seconds.

**weather related
Quoting 533. KoritheMan:



There isn't a lot of shear in the Gulf or the Bahamas in those images you posted. Maybe the extreme southern Gulf.

I don't expect the models to handle the MJO well in this kind of pattern; they already do poorly as it is even when it's not there.

Main focus should still be in the Pacific, but the expectation of a bone dry Atlantic is a little premature, imo.

We'll see. I still only expect 3 storms next month.


I think the switch is on presently for the atl. I'm not sure the catl wave will pull n and i don't know how long conditions will persist, but if anything were to develop out there, I'd say it has a decent shot near term, at the least. The shear models were for 120 hrs, but did indicate pretty high (30kt) shear over a large area. Leads me to believe it's not going to be absolute smooth sailing regardless of anything developing into anything.
Quoting 535. GatorWX:



I think the switch is on presently for the atl. I'm not sure the catl wave will pull n and i don't know how long conditions will persist, but if anything were to develop out there, I'd say it has a decent shot near term, at the least. The shear models were for 120 hrs, but did indicate pretty high (30kt) shear over a large area. Leads me to believe it's not going to be absolute smooth sailing regardless of anything developing into anything.


No, the GFS is probably being overzealous with the cyclogenesis thing. Moisture could increase in a week, though, which CAN lead to cyclones.
Quoting 533. KoritheMan:



There isn't a lot of shear in the Gulf or off the east coast in those images you posted. Maybe the extreme southern Gulf.

I don't expect the models to handle the MJO well in this kind of pattern; they already do poorly as it is even when it's not there.

Main focus should still be in the Pacific, but the expectation of a bone dry Atlantic is a little premature, imo.

We'll see. I still only expect 3 storms next month.
I say 4 counting 99L if it develops.
Quoting 514. TropicalAnalystwx13:


It might not have as much of an influence compared to early in the season since, climatologically, conditions are more favorable for tropical cyclones during the peak months, but it certainly has an influence.
I said that because you make it sound like if the downward mjo is going to shut down the Atlantic. Me might get weak storms but I still see development. Have there ever been a September without storm? I can't remember right now.
Quoting 537. allancalderini:

I say 4 counting 99L if it develops. I said that because you make it sound like if the downward mjo is going to shut down the Atlantic. Me might get weak storms but I still see development. Have there ever been a September without storm? I can't remember right now.


No there hasn't. August 1961 and 1997 were devoid of storms, though.
Quoting 536. KoritheMan:



No, the GFS is probably being overzealous with the cyclogenesis thing. Moisture could increase in a week, though, which CAN lead to cyclones.


Moisture seems to be there presently, as well as instability. I don't need a model to tell me that. I'd say 30-40% catl wave develops ever. The NHC should use that approach. % for 2 day, 5 day and ever. I'm only referring to "now" in these posts. I don't pay much attention to models until something has actually formed. I do look at patterns and persistence, but that's even a stretch in recent years.
Quoting 527. GatorWX:



:(
Easy to explain for those that need splainin'. There is a higher power that gives us lightning and knowledge. When bad people destroy the land and exploit the natives hard work, this higher power exercises his powers. This is also why the Gaters stink at football. The only way they these worthless Yankees won one game against another real Florida team in the last forever was because of an island boy name of Tim Tebow. 99 is reforming tonight, Sunday is a major weather day, Monday is a brand new day of storminess.
Quoting 538. KoritheMan:



No there hasn't. August 1961 and 1997 were devoid of storms, though.


I will say this. This isn't 2013. Quality over numbers. What forms likely has a better opportunity, especially in the horse lats this year than last. Although I believe the wcarib/gom is much better than 2013, they have to get there first. Aside from Bertha, Arthur and Cristobal performed relatively well in this region. Something will work it's way into the favored southerly regions eventually, just my inclination. Obviously, this foreseeable occasion isn't based on much of what we all don't know, but conditions have not been very horrible in the said region.
Quoting 539. GatorWX:



Moisture seems to be there presently, as well as instability. I don't need a model to tell me that. I'd say 30-40% catl wave develops ever. The NHC should use that approach. % for 2 day, 5 day and ever. I'm only referring to "now" in these posts. I don't pay much attention to models until something has actually formed. I do look at patterns and persistence, but that's even a stretch in recent years.


We can very much determine hints in the pattern from long-range model predictions. It's how I was able to anticipate the return of east coast ridging.
Quoting 540. Pallis1:

Easy to explain for those that need splainin'. There is a higher power that gives us lightning and knowledge. When bad people destroy the land and exploit the natives hard work, this higher power exercises his powers. This is also why the Gaters stink at football. The only way they these worthless Yankees won one game against another real Florida team in the last forever was because of an island boy name of Tim Tebow. 99 is reforming tonight, Sunday is a major weather day, Monday is a brand new day of storminess.


I like you Pallis. You said to me once you're from a long lineage of sw Floridians? I think you said your ancestors inhabited a region just north of present day Sarasota.?
Quoting 542. KoritheMan:



We can very much determine hints in the pattern from long-range model predictions. It's how I was able to anticipate the return of east coast ridging.


When did it cease to exist? It flattened out for awhile, but was always there. I was surprised how long it took the southerly jet to lift some.
I wish I knew why so I could say something awesome, but this graphic just looks rather bare and unusual.

Quoting 544. GatorWX:



When did it cease to exist? It flattened out for awhile, but was always there. I was surprised how long it took the southerly jet to lift some.


The ridge? It was stronger than in recent years for sure (all of our systems moved slowly over the western Atlantic instead of instantly accelerating), but the persistent trough over New England kept a hole in the western portion of it.

The pattern flipped around the middle of month, just before Cristobal. He didn't recurve because of an east coast trough; it was because of a Bermuda trough triggered by the east coast ridge.
Quoting 545. GatorWX:

I wish I knew why so I could say something awesome, but this graphic just looks rather bare and unusual.




And with that dumb statement, I'm out. I can usually tell how tired I am by the ridiculousness of my posts on WU. I'll try to wake up thinking more logically around 9, but it is my day off, so... Have a good night all! 35% "ever" I'm specific. :)
Quoting 545. GatorWX:

I wish I knew why so I could say something awesome, but this graphic just looks rather bare and unusual.




It does? That's upper-level vorticity, dude. It's supposed to look like that.
Come on guys go take a 4 week vacation or some in there other thing in life the this old blog. Nothing is going too happen Peak of the season or not it's dead out there Being on this blog for 24hrs a day nothing is going to chages out there.
Quoting 549. Tazmanian:

Come on guys go take a 4 week vacation or some in there other thing in life the this old blog. Nothing is going too happen Peak of the season or not it's dead out there Being on this blog for 24hrs a day nothing is going to chages out there.


A four week vacation? Taz, something is going to happen in September. No year is that dead.
Quoting 549. Tazmanian:

Come on guys go take a 4 week vacation or some in there other thing in life the this old blog. Nothing is going too happen Peak of the season or not it's dead out there Being on this blog for 24hrs a day nothing is going to chages out there.


Hey Taz!

How's it hanging these days? SO you don't think there will be any more storms this season?
Quoting FOREX:


nHC not impressed. hmmmm.
They won't mention the feature unless is a threat to a land area, in 24 to 36 hours; probably tired already of failing so often in their forecast... Next time, they want to be sure..-just a personal opinion, of course...
Quoting 546. KoritheMan:



The ridge? It was stronger than in recent years for sure (all of our systems moved slowly over the western Atlantic instead of instantly accelerating), but the persistent trough over New England kept a hole in the western portion of it.

The pattern flipped around the middle of month, just before Cristobal. He didn't recurve because of an east coast trough; it was because of a Bermuda trough triggered by the east coast ridge.


No, the ecoast trof is what I was referring to.

Peace!
Quoting 546. KoritheMan:



The ridge? It was stronger than in recent years for sure (all of our systems moved slowly over the western Atlantic instead of instantly accelerating), but the persistent trough over New England kept a hole in the western portion of it.

The pattern flipped around the middle of month, just before Cristobal. He didn't recurve because of an east coast trough; it was because of a Bermuda trough triggered by the east coast ridge.


No, the ecoast trof is what I was referring to.

Peace!
Quoting 548. KoritheMan:



It does? That's upper-level vorticity, dude. It's supposed to look like that.


It is? :)
Kori, watch a 5 day loop of the 200mb vorticity on CIMSS. It clears out of the southern regions mostly. Try to keep up. :p As I was last night signing off, I'm spent. I think I'm working on 8, maybe, hours of sleep in last 60 or so hours. Kinda tired.
Quoting 555. GatorWX:

Kori, watch a 5 day loop of the 200mb vorticity on CIMSS. It clears out of the southern regions mostly. Try to keep up. :p As I was last night signing off, I'm spent. I think I'm working on 8, maybe, hours of sleep in last 60 or so hours. Kinda tired.


I am keeping up. I still don't get it. :)
557. flsky
You're so eloquent at night. Hmmm.

Quoting 549. Tazmanian:

Come on guys go take a 4 week vacation or some in there other thing in life the this old blog. Nothing is going too happen Peak of the season or not it's dead out there Being on this blog for 24hrs a day nothing is going to chages out there.
558. FOREX
Central ATL ave not looking so hot this morning. Sigh.
Quoting 556. KoritheMan:



I am keeping up. I still don't get it. :)


In simpler terms the shear lets up. An alternate way of alluding to it I guess, but there's more to it than simply that. I would love to converse with you some time, but I'm simply too tired. The dynamics of the jets, imo, are the cause of much of our problems in our basin. I look at the 200mb vort and see it lifting, shear and related problems, intrusion, tend to go away some. That's all. My assumption is they'll return, but for now... we have a shot at something in the mdr if it lifts out. I'm out, for the FINAL time. Go on during the day Kori you zombie. I'll hide the garlic. We've talked some through the years, but I've always found your knowledge to be top notch on here. I hope you can figure out how to exploit it someday instead of wasting anything at that pit, WM. I'm sorry if you're on board with em. My uncle was for too many years. You are too intelligent for it and deserve better. If one comes up, we're chasing. I'm moving to Cali in the fall, so this might be the last opportunity I have for awhile. You down? Let's "wish" one our way.
Quoting 558. FOREX:

Central ATL ave not looking so hot this morning. Sigh.


Compared to?

561. FOREX
Quoting 560. GatorWX:



Compared to?


Hi, sorry about your game. seems to be a bit more ragged looking with less convection on Rainbow.
99L looks less than spectacular, GFS a bit more enthusiastic than Euro about a fish storm coming off Africa in a week, and again, no model support for Central Atlantic blob.

As always, 15 day-16 days out several GEFS perturbations show Gulf hurricanes. 15 to 16 days from now, the 15-16 day range GEFS will probably still show that. I imagine by the end of September, maybe the GEFS will slow down on 2 week range fantasy canes. Until then, GT will remain excited.

West Pac 90W doesn't look any better. But better than 99L
Quoting 561. FOREX:

Hi, sorry about your game. seems to be a bit more ragged looking with less convection on Rainbow.


It's a large complex L. I wish we had a floater. The blob that's been most evident is e of the actual low. The convection near the L has been pretty nill. Give it the night and then tomorrow. It may run out of time if it doesn;t begin to play along.
CIMSS seems to be off, but CATL wave, other than obscure non-tropical systems from 2012 I don't remember that formed over the far Northeast sub-tropical Atlantic, if there is zero model support for a disturbance, there seems a near zero chance of development.

PW and 700 mb RH/height fields show the GFS initialized the CATL blob, and tracks it to the Lesser Antilles in 5 days, it just doesn't develop it.

Maybe 250 mb 25 knot Westerlies in 96 hours on GFS and 10 knot low level Easterlies, or almost 35 knots of 850-250 mb shear is why the GFS doesn't develop it.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with a tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea. Land interaction will limit significant development while the
disturbance moves across the Yucatan peninsula today and tonight.
However, environmental conditions are expected to be become
marginally conducive for some gradual development once the system
moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
Mildly surprised how bad 99L looks and that no GEFS members develop even a 1004 mb tropical depression or storm from it. I thought it'd be a bit farther North and a bit better developed by now.

NAM still gets a 1004 mb TD in 3 days out of it, but NAM is not the most highly regarded tropical model.

Almost inland, and fairly far South if I am looking at satellite right, near where Central America makes a 90º bend between Guatemala and Belize, which also probably means little time back over the open Bay of Campeche. Surprised NHC increased development odds. Oh, it is Stewart.

He won a Purple Heart in Iraq, and spent months in rehab from the injuries from the IED, and I liked his last Ike discussion before landfall, but he seems most optimistic on development or strengthening amongst NHC forecasters.
Quoting 559. GatorWX:



In simpler terms the shear lets up. An alternate way of alluding to it I guess, but there's more to it than simply that. I would love to converse with you some time, but I'm simply too tired. The dynamics of the jets, imo, are the cause of much of our problems in our basin. I look at the 200mb vort and see it lifting, shear and related problems, intrusion, tend to go away some. That's all. My assumption is they'll return, but for now... we have a shot at something in the mdr if it lifts out. I'm out, for the FINAL time. Go on during the day Kori you zombie. I'll hide the garlic. We've talked some through the years, but I've always found your knowledge to be top notch on here. I hope you can figure out how to exploit it someday instead of wasting anything at that pit, WM. I'm sorry if you're on board with em. My uncle was for too many years. You are too intelligent for it and deserve better. If one comes up, we're chasing. I'm moving to Cali in the fall, so this might be the last opportunity I have for awhile. You down? Let's "wish" one our way.


I know how to read those maps, lol. I was more confused at what you were trying to get at, especially when you said you were tired. I thought maybe you had messed up and posted the wrong tropospheric level (mb) or something. Because again, that 200 mb vort map doesn't look too dissimilar to what I'd anticipate during the peak of the season. Oh yeah, and obviously upper air cyclones play a role in vertical shear and dry air entrainment. :P

Bring on the chase!

No I'm not sucking corporate *ahem*. At least not for much longer. I'm about to take my GED here within the next three months. Tired of it.
http://news.discovery.com/earth/videos/earth-tsunam i-warning-center-uses-top-technology.htm

random but interesting
A lovely morning here in Saint Lucia.
The CATL this morning appears to be a front runner for the wave just coming off the African coast. It has been sometime that the central atlantic has been covered with so much moisture. it is my gut feeling that the wave behind this moisture field could be the big one. It is coming off at a low latitude with a fair amount of spin. shear forecast for the next few days will be on the low side which may be the catalyst for the first major CV hurricane to come out of the tropics in two years.
will do more in depth analysis during the course of the morning.
Seems curiously odd that here it is 7:00 AM Eastern time, and the NHC has yet to post their 5:00 AM report. Anyone know why the big delay?
Quoting 570. SenatorQ:

Seems curiously odd that here it is 7:00 AM Eastern time, and the NHC has yet to post their 5:00 AM report. Anyone know why the big delay?


They don't do 5 AM updates when there aren't active tropical cyclones.

Look for the next update in... 40 minutes. TWO, baby.
Pressure gradient between 99-L and High Pressure north of us will make for some nice 5-8 foot swell here in the
Central GOMEX. Not thinking it will develop beyond a depression or weak TS, but you never know with the BOC.
Quoting 528. GTstormChaserCaleb:

One thing of note is the GFS keeps convective activity in the Western Caribbean.




Isn't it always convectively active in that part of the Caribbean though?

Quoting 522. KoritheMan:



So there's shear in the Caribbean? Big deal.


The GFS tends to overdo shear by 5-10kts, so once you factor that in, it doesn't look too bad for the Gulf/East Coast/Some parts of the Caribbean. Especially as that is an anomaly chart. If shear is normally 5-10kts, an anomaly of 5-10kts (shear being 15-20kts now) isn't detrimental to development. Will be an interesting month ahead.


much weaker the tropical wave
575. FOREX
Central Atl wave looking worse this morning. Here we go again. sigh.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with a tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea. Land interaction will limit significant development while the
disturbance moves across the Yucatan peninsula today and tonight.
However, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development once the system moves into the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico on Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
577. FOREX
Quoting 576. Tropicsweatherpr:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with a tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea. Land interaction will limit significant development while the
disturbance moves across the Yucatan peninsula today and tonight.
However, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development once the system moves into the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico on Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
still no mention of central atl wave. they must know something we don't know.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with a tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea. Land interaction will limit significant development while the
disturbance moves across the Yucatan peninsula today and tonight.
However, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development once the system moves into the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico on Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
Perhaps that Central Atlantic wave isn't forecast to develop until it wafts into the NW Caribbean.  Isn't there a GFS run supporting that scenario?
Quoting 577. FOREX:

still no mention of central atl wave. they must know something we don't know.

There's enough dry, stable air in the vicinity to keep it from becoming anything. Shear increases further west as well. This is a testament to the skill of our forecast models. As healthy as the wave has looked, the models never bit on it after it was over water. It never had much in the way of 850mb vorticity either, just lots of disorganized convection. By sunset today there won't be much left of it.
Quoting 397. KarenRei:



Yeah, we get some pretty mean ones. I'll never forget this one, for example:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-tbnDW7lcTs

That was during Airwaves, so I was running between music venues all day all over town during that storm ;)

This isn't as strong. Still, it's going to be one of our strongest this summer. There was an article in the news about how it's going to (temporarily) interfere with the seismometers that are trying to monitor the situation in Bárðarbunga (the really big volcano that's threatening to go off); apparently windstorms add noise to the data and make it so they can't detect weak or distant earthquakes.

Hmm, Cristobal is getting pretty angry out my window while I'm writing this... better check up on my plants, I'm hearing all kinds of noise.



S[peaking of Bardarbunga: there was another--and still ongoing--eruption this morning, this one roughly twice and long as the Friday morning event. On the screenshot from the Mila cam below, you can see a line of lava being pumped from a fissure. You can also see the smoke being shunted quickly off as the remains of Cristobal approach. Winds are expected to top out around 25 m/s (55 mph), so the camera is already shaking a lot, and will likely become even more so:



wow!!
ULL east of the Bahamas heading west toward Florida. Could this develop? Slim chance but might look imposing on the satellite.
06Z NAM hasn't changed from yesterday afternoon.
Not much time to develop if the NAM forecast is to play out.
It only gives 99L, 48 hours over open water after crossing the Yucatan.

Quoting 585. unknowncomic:

UA L east of the Bahamas heading west toward Florida. Could this develop? Slim chance but might look imposing on the satellite.


Other than development in the BOC, the only other place I would be looking is off the east coast of Florida. As you can see, the area is clearing out and a little pulse of energy is due to be in the area in a few days.
Morning, afternoon and evening, everyone! My part of Louisiana ended up with just over 2 inches of rain yesterday, south of me had close to six inches and flooding. Rain is forecast everyday for the next week.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: beignets smothered in powdered sugar, banana or corn fritters, broiled boudin patties, bacon and cheddar eggs Sardou, scrambled eggs with crawfish Étouffée to pour over it, big fluffy biscuits with sausage gravy, apple cinnamon oatmeal, cheesy grits with shrimp, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Tea and Creole coffee. Enjoy!
Good Sunday hello. Well, Nea was quicker with posting something about the development in Iceland lol. Nevertheless here is something more:



Fresh eruption: 60 m high lava fountains
Fyrst birt: 31.08.2014 09:49, 31.08.2014 11:30
The effusive eruption in Holuhraun that started early this morning is producing 50 - 60 meter high lava fountains, according to a volcanologist at the site. The active fissure is 1500 - 1800 meter long, considerably larger than the fissure that opened Friday morning.
According to Armann Hoskuldsson, volcanologist at the University of Iceland's Institute of Earth Sciences, who is at the site, the lava flow from the fissure is about 10-20 times more than Friday morning. The eruption is estimated to be 10 to 20 times bigger than the one Friday morning, and looks "robust" says Dr. Hoskuldsson. He says the highest lava fountains can be seen at the southern end of the fissure, but at the northern end, they are less powerful. The southern end of the fissure is about 4 kilometres north of the Dyngjujokull outlet glacier. ...




Fresh eruption north of Bardarbunga -video

Fyrst birt: 31.08.2014 06:41, 31.08.2014 09:33



Ex-Christobal is currently hampering the watch of the eruption. Scientists had to leave the place earlier because of the storm. Here a loop showing Ex-Cristobal hitting Iceland.


Too much rain in Malmo/Sweden this morning (more than 90mm = 3,5 inches in 12 hours).



Flash floods cause chaos in southern Sweden
The Local (Sweden), Published: 31 Aug 2014 10:17 GMT 02:00
The Skane region of southern Sweden was hit suddenly by extreme rains on Sunday morning, with houses flooded, buses evacuated, and people having to swim to safety from their cars. ...
99 got an orange. it looked as if it pulsed a bit right before landfall in the yucatan
ROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N31W TO 15N33W...TO A
1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 10N34W. THE WAVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 35W AND 37W.


that low is still on here
99L is flaring up this morning, although it'll be moving inland pretty soon which will prevent further organization later today. Still, with shear in the BOC basically zero, no dry air to worry about and plenty warm waters, it should become a TD/TS as long as it gets enough time over water. It should only need about 36 hours, and I think it will get that. The BAMS track looks the best out of these.



595. SLU
The 588 line has shifted much further south all of a sudden. Based on my observations (subject to correction) significant tropical cyclones don't usually form north of the 588 line. In other words, the Atlantic is shutting down for business. I was thinking 4-2-1 for September but looking at the models which predict basically nothing through September 10th - 15th, those numbers may be over-exaggerated by far. This is also the slowest season since 1994 in terms of named storms. At no time during the entire 1995 - 2010 active phase did we see September commence with only 3 named storms. Food for thought.

Quoting KoritheMan:
Jesus Christ, guys:

...Record daily maximum rainfall set at Lake Charles...

a record rainfall of 7.78 inches was set at Lake Charles today. This breaks the old record of 2.5 set in 1982.


Talk about smashing a record.
It looked like a "lake" in places that shouldn't .
All the waves have looked this good when they emerge on water, will this one hold up?
This is painful. I don't have much hope for 99L and not many people care since it's going into Mexico. It's sad I was just thinking how in the past the big thing was for people to scoff at hurricanes hitting them if they weren't strong enough, and now there is really nothing to even consider. The only thing to do now is show "menacing" pictures of disturbances in relation to the US with the percentage of development from the NHC over it; or posting doom model runs. It has become this pathetic. I have no idea how long it will be before we see a robust MDR hurricane in the Atlantic or an at least healthy average or active season again. We are definitely in a different era now. If you just stepped on board here (2013 or 2014), you picked a very very very bad time to be tracking the tropics in the Atlantic. I myself will attempt to do this, but I think the best solution at this time is to go on with your life until something real happens. Honestly, it's more painful to come on here every few hours of the day only to watch satellite images of mush interact with unfavorable and/or un-conducive conditions in the Atlantic. If you choose to stay here, I hope you can stay sane.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
99L is flaring up this morning, although it'll be moving inland pretty soon which will prevent further organization later today. Still, with shear in the BOC basically zero, no dry air to worry about and plenty warm waters, it should become a TD/TS as long as it gets enough time over water. It should only need about 36 hours, and I think it will get that. The BAMS track looks the best out of these.





99L was starting to organize based on visible satellite. We'll have to see how much of 99L is left when it gets into the BOC.
SLU i was just giving thought to exactly to your observation about what appears to be signs of a premature end to the 2014 season. Since Tomas of October 2010, the north atlantic basin has taken the semblance of the south atlantic. it may the cycle of intense hurricane activity has come to end. looking at the present time when one expects a ramp up in activity in the MDR in what is the peak of the season, the long rage forecast shows very little activity. The atmosphere is behaving like an El Nino year with high wind shear and stable sinking air,. Some how that cannot continue and I still expect things to change and something comes out of the deep tropics. at the moment I am looking at the wave that just came off the African coast. It is is at a low latitude and embedded in the monsoon trough. I must say that most of the waves this season have looked promising only to be eaten away in the central atlantic. maybe it may again turn out to be yet another one which bites the dust. one never knows that what makes tropical meteorology ,so interesting and difficult.
99L could end up in the gulf rather than BOC..
Quoting hydrus:
99L could end up in the gulf rather than BOC..


On the Navy site

NAVGEM: Stronger than in yesterday's forecast. Tracks farthest north of all the models, making landfall on the central Texas coast.

603. SLU
Quoting 598. opal92nwf:

This is painful. I don't have much hope for 99L and not many people care since it's going into Mexico. It's sad I was just thinking how in the past the big thing was for people to scoff at hurricanes hitting them if they weren't strong enough, and now there is really nothing to even consider. The only thing to do now is show "menacing" pictures of disturbances in relation to the US with the percentage of development from the NHC over it; or posting doom model runs. It has become this pathetic. I have no idea how long it will be before we see a robust MDR hurricane in the Atlantic or an at least healthy average or active season again. We are definitely in a different era now. If you just stepped on board here (2013 or 2014), you picked a very very very bad time to be tracking the tropics in the Atlantic. I myself will attempt to do this, but I think the best solution at this time is to go on with your life until something real happens. Honestly, it's more painful to come on here every few hours of the day only to watch satellite images of mush interact with unfavorable and/or un-conducive conditions in the Atlantic. If you choose to stay here, I hope you can stay sane.


lol ...

I'm glad I had the privilege to have tracked the majority of the last active era but I do feel sorry for you guys who just logged on. It might be a good 15 - 25 years before we see another interesting phase like what just ended. Sorry.
604. SLU
Quoting 600. stoormfury:

SLU i was just giving thought to exactly to your observation about what appears to be signs of a premature end to the 2014 season. Since Tomas of October 2010, the north atlantic basin has taken the semblance of the south atlantic. it may the cycle of intense hurricane activity has come to end. looking at the present time when one expects a ramp up in activity in the MDR in what is the peak of the season, the long rage forecast shows very little activity. The atmosphere is behaving like an El Nino year with high wind shear and stable sinking air,. Some how that cannot continue and I still expect things to change and something comes out of the deep tropics. at the moment I am looking at the wave that just came off the African coast. It is is at a low latitude and embedded in the monsoon trough. I must say that most of the waves this season have looked promising only to be eaten away in the central atlantic. maybe it may again turn out to be yet another one which bites the dust. one never knows that what makes tropical meteorology ,so interesting and difficult.


The MJO spent the majority of August in phase 1 and 2 and all we have to show for it were two ugly, disjointed and short-lived hurricanes. I've never seen anything like this for 2 years in a row in over 20 years of tracking Atlantic seasons.
The current eruptive event appears to be tapering off, as expected, though it's difficult to tell with clouds; this image is a perfect example of that, with the whitish smoke from the eruption in middle-distance partially obscured by clouds of brownish dust (lifted by ex-Cristobal) in the foreground, and dark storm clouds in the back. The jagged bits of earth to the left of the smoke clouds are spatter cones produced by today's eruption.

Have a buddy from Surfside Beach, TX. Great longboarder. He is probably drooling. I think he is Corpus now.

Quoting 572. canehater1:

Pressure gradient between 99-L and High Pressure north of us will make for some nice 5-8 foot swell here in the
Central GOMEX. Not thinking it will develop beyond a depression or weak TS, but you never know with the BOC.
Quoting 604. SLU:



The MJO spent the majority of August in phase 1 and 2 and all we have to show for it were two ugly, disjointed and short-lived hurricanes. I've never seen anything like this for 2 years in a row in over 20 years of tracking Atlantic seasons.
I dont believe its the end of the hyper activity. There is something at work here with the Hadley Cell and moisture content. This may also affect the ocean temps to some degree. Regardless, something putting a damper on hurricane formation.
Hurricane and tropical activity in August 2014 was SLOW in the Atlantic Basin!

Glad I have been around long enough to see the busy era of tropical activity, that began in 1995! Although it was slow before 1995, there were still some very interesting years, and several landfalls of intense hurricanes. So, anything can still happen, even if we are actually entering a slower period of named storms.

I'd give it a few years, before we can really say that tropical activity has totally switched over to a slower era - being that we had 13 named storms in 2013, and 19 named storms in 2012. And it was busy in most years .... all the way back to 1995.

Will be interesting to see what September and October 2014 will bring ..... even if a potential hurricane does not yet have model support!
Quoting 603. SLU:



lol ...

I'm glad I had the privilege to have tracked the majority of the last active era but I do feel sorry for you guys who just logged on. It might be a good 15 - 25 years before we see another interesting phase like what just ended. Sorry.


At least I know I will have something to do when I am 140.
.
Quoting 610. Grothar:



At least I know I will have something to do when I am 140.
billion...
Quoting 598. opal92nwf:

This is painful. I don't have much hope for 99L and not many people care since it's going into Mexico. It's sad I was just thinking how in the past the big thing was for people to scoff at hurricanes hitting them if they weren't strong enough, and now there is really nothing to even consider. The only thing to do now is show "menacing" pictures of disturbances in relation to the US with the percentage of development from the NHC over it; or posting doom model runs. It has become this pathetic. I have no idea how long it will be before we see a robust MDR hurricane in the Atlantic or an at least healthy average or active season again. We are definitely in a different era now. If you just stepped on board here (2013 or 2014), you picked a very very very bad time to be tracking the tropics in the Atlantic. I myself will attempt to do this, but I think the best solution at this time is to go on with your life until something real happens. Honestly, it's more painful to come on here every few hours of the day only to watch satellite images of mush interact with unfavorable and/or un-conducive conditions in the Atlantic. If you choose to stay here, I hope you can stay sane.


If you cannot stay sane while blogging here or have no other life then watching the tropics only you have other problems most likely in life that should be addressed by a professional. If your living your life only for tropical weather in the Atlantic you are missing out on life.I enjoy the weather and I am fascinated by it. At the end of the day if the US avoids any other hurricanes the rest of the year or nothing develops it is non issue to me and should be for everyone else in the context of their "life".
invest 99L STARTING TO look better this morning
Quoting HaoleboySurfEC:
Have a buddy from Surfside Beach, TX. Great longboarder. He is probably drooling. I think he is Corpus now.



For many years I surfed at Bob Hall Pier in Corpus out on North Padre Island.
It's probably one of the most consistant spots in the GOM. It produces a much better/steeper wave than most places, especially spots up the coast to the north.

South Padre can get really good, but it's not as consistant as Bob Hall Pier.

I've never been a fan of Port Aransas. It usually produces a mushy wave with a lot of white water rumble because the water is really shallow way offshore. The same can be said for the Galveston Area.
Quoting 615. Sfloridacat5:



For many years I surfed at Bob Hall Pier in Corpus out on North Padre Island.
It' probably one of the most consistant spots in the GOM. It produces a much better/steeper wave than most places, especially spots up the coast to the north.

South Padre can get really good, but it's not as consistant as Bob Hall Pier.

I've never been a fan of Port Aransas. It usually produces a mushy wave with a lot of white water rumble because the water is really shallow way offshore. The same can be said for the Galveston Area.

I have not seen a long clean break since the mid 90,s. I was at Fort Pierce on a good day. Long rides during low and high tide with little or no mush. :)
140 is the new 105.

Quoting 610. Grothar:



At least I know I will have something to do when I am 140.
Quoting 617. HaoleboySurfEC:

140 is the new 105.




:)
I know this may not look like much, but these systems often have a way of ramping up quickly. If this ULL moves toward the Bahamas it won't have much to steer it and could be in place a while.


Pretty impressive warm pool.



SOI index is well into El-nino territory now.
SOI values for 31 Aug 2014




Average for last 30 days

-10.9



Average for last 90 days

-5.7



Daily contribution to SOI calculation

-13.5


2 Year El-Nino? Also looks like the Atlantic Hurricane season of 2015 may suffer the same fate as the 2014 dead Atlantic Hurricane Season.
There might be something yet to watch. new wave with what appears to be a low forming 8N 21W. might be something to remember in September. no model support but ASCAT maybe partially showing some west winds.
Quoting 619. Grothar:
I know this may not look like much, but these systems often have a way of ramping up quickly. If this ULL moves toward the Bahamas it won't have much to steer it and could be in place a while.




For going into September I don't know if I've ever seen the Atlantic Basin lacking so much convection. Unreal and this does not bode well for many storms this September. I say we squeeze out 2.
Quoting 622. StormTrackerScott:



For going into September I don't know if I've ever seen the Atlantic Basin lacking so much convection. Unreal and this does not bode well for many storms this September. I say we squeeze out 2.
I predict 3. My guess is based on tropical waves surviving the trip into the Caribbean or Western Atlantic, having a chance to organize there.
624. vis0

Quoting 10. sar2401:

Appreciate the update, Dr. Masters. I imagine this is the shortest update with the least amount of "storms" you've ever done for a Labor Day weekend. Climatology seems to be failing us this year.
Though in replying to sar2401 i'm preaching to the choir, as far as Earth being "ill"..
• Climatology never fails.
• Climatology is teaching us (humans whom want to learn/observe new things weather we like it or knot) that Earth is ill.

☺ my 22centavos:

Observe a complex planet (Earth) during these 2 week periods i call "anomaly weeks" of which i state there are 6 or 7 a year. (seach blog for my Galacsic Calendars)

☺ 6 or 7? a year. Due to the fact i use a "Galacsic Calender" that begins on the mean average of religious passover/solar passover/sidereal passover and since many use the Gregorian (no relation-ship) Kalender i average out amounts using both Calenders...COME BACK!...whew almost lost all of you at least 2 stayed.

☺ i state that any complex planet** has its weather / climate moved by its own inner triggered activities & outer triggered activities (by outer i mean things transmitted throughout space be it through physics, quantum or my cah-razy "galacsics".

☺ If one looks at how during these anomaly weeks whatever weather / mixing of the atmospheres is occurring seems to go down a notch or two in output throughout more of Earth than not.   This TO ME this shows that Earth's circulation (if i may use that term) is suffering. (not news to many, though i call it GCS)


**BTW on my blogs ... (wxu is my 231st throughout the webnet since 1981...still waiting for my cookie - don't tell me to check my browsers tmp folder, yeech<<  those cookies don't go well w/mooilk) ...i use this inner/outer influence stuff to explain how humans (Earth's present complex animals) are not linearly linear but spirally linear (not related to flavor(ly) flav).  Don't think of humans evolving as in a straight line which has ebbs & flows think of the Human development as if graphed with a 3 dimensional slinky in which even if the slinky is straight the activity WITHIN in being circular has its own ups & downs.
How/Why?.

i state due to effects of black hole(s) (~16 light years thata way ↑) S(o)und / Resonance output as i state certain Black Holes take in light & output low i mean LOW resonances (STARTS @  1-³³ Hz that's negative 33) which influence the planets Hz (~8Hz) to complex animal's Chakras (western culture calls them 7 sealed books, the Sphinx has 3 more to be unearthed) and not to mention 5 paternal precessions one of which is the duodecium precession (ie full circle every ~23,000 yrs) point the solar system to & fro these interactions of which help "force" a complex planet to live / circulate it elements (there are also 4 maternal, sibling & spiritual precession, others call them matriarchal etc and Mayans showed these via cogs. If this OUTER INTERACTION did not happen Earth would be ~231 yrs worse off right now. By 231 yrs i mean you hear how scientist state that in 60 yrs we might reach a breaking point not as to Earth but as to Human's health and ability fit in/acclimate w/o the assistance of natural mutations which takes at least thousands of years will be tested in just ~100 years. Well if Earth were on its own we'd be breathing/experiencing 2245 AD weather right now, of course this is from a nut, so take this all with a grain of traffic salt. i hear football calling me.

i'm sorry to waste your time, but glad i wasted mine
sincerely,
Gregorio O. de Mojeca



invest 99L going to hit land soon.

...EASTERLY WAVES AFFECTING TEXAS AND FLORIDA...

PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 00Z GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE MODELS SHOW FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING WHAT ARE
SOMEWHAT BROAD EASTERLY WAVES / INVERTED TROUGHS...ONE APPROACHING
SOUTH TEXAS AND ONE APPROACHING FLORIDA ON DAY 3. THE MAIN OUTLIER
IS THE NAM. NEAR FLORIDA IT DEPICTS A NARROWER...SHARPER LOW LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WITH INCREASED WINDS RELATIVE TO CONSENSUS...WHILE
ALSO BEING MORE EXPANSIVE WITH DEPRESSION OF THE MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
AROUND THIS WAVE. THE UKMET WAS THE LEAST PRONOUNCED IN THE HEIGHT
FIELD. FARTHER WEST THE NAM IS SPINNING UP A TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER DOES GIVE 40
PERCENT ODDS OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 5
DAYS. THE NAM SOLUTION...HOWEVER...IS ONE OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
ONES. IT BEGINS INTENSIFYING THE CYCLONE EVEN AS IT IS CROSSING
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. FOR NOW A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IS TO SET
THE NAM SOLUTION ASIDE AS A LESS LIKELY OUTCOME...ALTHOUGH IT IS
ONE THAT CANNOT BE ENTIRELY DISCOUNTED.

www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...
Quoting 624. vis0:



Take a deep breathe. It's ok! It's just HAARP at work. They have everything under control.
Quoting 619. Grothar:

I know this may not look like much, but these systems often have a way of ramping up quickly. If this ULL moves toward the Bahamas it won't have much to steer it and could be in place a while.





Excerpt Miami NWS Disco...


GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST OF THE BAHAMAS
CONTINUING TO MOVE WEST AND INTO THE BAHAMAS MON-TUE THEN INTO
OUR ATLANTIC WATERS AND ACROSS SOUTH FL WED-THU ALONG WITH A WEAK
LOW LEVEL REFLECTION/TROUGH. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES
ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A MORE UNSETTLED
PERIOD BY MID WEEK. HOWEVER, BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE FOCUS OF
CONVERGENCE/STORMINESS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND OUT LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS. SO IT IS UNCERTAIN JUST HOW STORMY IT COULD BECOME ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THIS FEATURE. ONE FACTOR WHICH HAS OUR
INTEREST IS THE COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW WITH MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING H5 TEMPS LOWERING INTO THE
-8C TO -9.5C RANGE WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...WHICH WOULD BE THE
COLDEST H5 READINGS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER LOCALLY.
INCREASED CLOUDINESS WOULD BE A NEGATING FACTOR FOR ACTIVE
TSTORMS, BUT IF WE END UP WITH GOOD CONVERGENCE (ESPECIALLY
ATLANTIC COAST AT NIGHT...SOMETHING TO WATCH) THEN IT COULD
BECOME QUITE ACTIVE. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE POPS THROUGH THE
WEEK, THOUGH DID CUT POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY EAST COAST MON-TUE BEFORE
TRENDING UP MID-LATE WEEK. /GREGORIA
Quoting 626. K8eCane:



You KNOW things are slow when NOAA is looking at the NAM for tropical development. Maybe things are going to hell in a hand basket. ;-)
630. SLU
Quoting 608. hydrus:

I dont believe its the end of the hyper activity. There is something at work here with the Hadley Cell and moisture content. This may also affect the ocean temps to some degree. Regardless, something putting a damper on hurricane formation.



I'm not 100% convinced as yet but if 2015 follows suit with no El Nino then something unusual will surely be going on.

Ex-Cristobal over Iceland.
Its an
Morning all.

I'm starting my wx day by posting a satimg of my area, showing what just soaked the insides of my car...


I put the car windows down earlier to expel the hot stale air. However about 10 minutes ago, out of a blue sky, a torrential downpour soaked my car - and me as I tried to put up the windows.... the only way I knew it was raining was the sudden tossing of the upper branches of the trees outside my window, and the sun never stopped shining the whole time.
Going back out there with a wet/dry vac now, to try getting as much water off the floor / seat as possible...

BTW, aislinn, I did enjoy the virtual breakfast this a.m...
Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning all.

I'm starting my wx day by posting a satimg of my area, showing what just soaked the insides of my car...


I put the car windows down earlier to expel the hot stale air. However about 10 minutes ago, out of a blue sky, a torrential downpour soaked my car - and me as I tried to put up the windows.... the only way I knew it was raining was the sudden tossing of the upper branches of the trees outside my window, and the sun never stopped shining the whole time.
Going back out there with a wet/dry vac now, to try getting as much water off the floor / seat as possible...

BTW, aislinn, I did enjoy the virtual breakfast this a.m...

Did ya enjoy the ABW gif?
Quoting 607. Patrap:




Hows your wing doing Patrap?
Good Morning, just thought this was interesting:Link
Good morning!


Forgive me please link not opening. Will try one more time.


heavy rain getting in the center of invest 99L
Quoting 630. SLU:




I'm not 100% convinced as yet but if 2015 follows suit with no El Nino then something unusual will surely be going on.
Look into Jet Stream configuration and Blocking, there in might lay your answers. Remember, yesterday I noted the anomaly off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, the Gulf of Alaska, and the Gulf of St. Lawrence, there is also an anomaly in the EPAC off the coast of Mexico where we saw Marie develop. It seems as though there is a transport of heat or energy being brought from the tropics to the subtropical and polar regions. So there may be more to it then ENSO or lack thereof. Perhaps, it's the oscillation patterns that have changed.
Time to take a break from summer hvy snow is falling on this web cam

Quoting 636. midgulfmom:

Good Morning, just thought this was interesting:Link
Good morning Gulf Mom...Your link is not working
I see our catl wave petered! lol



Quoting 641. Tazmanian:

Time to take a break from summer hvy snow is falling on this web cam


Wow, Taz.... thanks 4 that.... amazing to see snow at Togwotee already.... one can hope it means good snow for the Jackson Hole area, and therefore good skiing this season...
We have been hit hard again in the Lake Charles La. area by flooding, this happens when we have tropical moisture coming in abundance. The NWC has put us under a Flash flood watch again today. We have many homes with water in them, and any more rain will be a disaster. I just took a peak at the radar, and its lit up. Some of our area has had over 8 inches of rain, and the NWS said we could get 3 or more inches today. That's what happens when you just get a small tropical system in your area. I cringe at those who beg for a hurricane to hit their area.
Quoting 642. hydrus:

Good morning Gulf Mom...Your link is not working
Hey hydrus can you post the NAO diagram for us, TIA.
Quoting 640. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Look into Jet Stream configuration and Blocking, there in might lay your answers. Remember, yesterday I noted the anomaly off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, the Gulf of Alaska, and the Gulf of St. Lawrence, there is also an anomaly in the EPAC off the coast of Mexico where we saw Marie develop. It seems as though there is a transport of heat or energy being brought from the tropics to the subtropical and polar regions. So there may be more to it then ENSO or lack thereof. Perhaps, it's the oscillation patterns that have changed.


The CFS has an amazing pattern in place for this Winter if you like severe weather especially in FL as it appears that outbreak after outbreak is going to be realized this Winter across the south with mainly focusing on FL.


Quoting 638. midgulfmom:

Forgive me please link not opening. Will try one more time.
Here you go. Try this.
I'm assuming Orcasystems no longer blogs, here. Whenever I've popped in once in a while the last couple years, I've seen nothing of him.
Quoting 622. StormTrackerScott:



For going into September I don't know if I've ever seen the Atlantic Basin lacking so much convection. Unreal and this does not bode well for many storms this September. I say we squeeze out 2.


Two days ago, it was beginning to look alright. I believe I wrote, "...but conditions do change". I have almost no confidence anymore and it seems most of my understanding of these systems so far must be thrown out the window. The basin certainly hasn't been what I've been used to last two seasons. Seems like a completely new chapter.
Quoting 647. StormTrackerScott:



The CFS has an amazing pattern in place for this Winter if you like severe weather especially in FL as it appears that outbreak after outbreak is going to be realized this Winter across the south with mainly focusing on FL.




As bad as winter of 2009-2010 was in Florida? That was a coooooold winter.
Quoting 647. StormTrackerScott:



The CFS has an amazing pattern in place for this Winter if you like severe weather especially in FL as it appears that outbreak after outbreak is going to be realized this Winter across the south with mainly focusing on FL.


Quoting 649. ElConando:

I'm assuming Orcasystems no longer blogs, here. Whenever I've popped in once in a while the last couple years, I've seen nothing of him.


Orca used to post the model overlays on Google Earth here, right? I know someone with Orca in their name has been around this season at times, but I don't recall if it was the same person.
Quoting 647. StormTrackerScott:



The CFS has an amazing pattern in place for this Winter if you like severe weather especially in FL as it appears that outbreak after outbreak is going to be realized this Winter across the south with mainly focusing on FL.




What are the dates from said events?? I'm supposed to go skydiving on Jan 15th. It'd be nice to know in advance. Thanks
NICE tropical wave with a low with it but all dry up again!!


watcing invest 99L where is the invest 99L going???
North Atlantic Deep Wateris a deep water mass formed in the North Atlantic Ocean. Thermohaline circulation of the world's oceans involves the flow of warm surface waters from the southern hemisphere into the North Atlantic. Water flowing northward becomes modified through evaporation and mixing with other water masses, leading to increased salinity. When this water reaches the North Atlantic it cools and sinks through convection, due to its decreased temperature and increased salinity resulting in increased density. NADW is the outflow of this thick deep layer, which can be detected by its high salinity, high oxygen content, nutrient minima, and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs).[1] CFCs are anthropogenic substances that enter the surface of the ocean from gas exchange with the atmosphere. This distinct composition allows its path to be traced as it mixes with Circumpolar Deep water, which in turn fills the deep Indian Ocean and part of the South Pacific. NADW and its formation is essential to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which is responsible for transporting large amounts of water, heat, salt, carbon, nutrients and other substances around the globe.[2] In the conveyor belt model of thermohaline circulation of the world's oceans, the sinking of NADW pulls the waters of the North Atlantic drift northward; however, this is almost certainly an oversimplification of the actual relationship between NADW formation and the strength of the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic drift.



The NADW flows southward through the Atlantic, approaching the Antarctic Bottom Water past the Mid-Atlantic Ridge.




This figure depicts circulation patterns in the North Atlantic Ocean. Cold, dense water is shown in blue, flowing south from upper latitudes, while warm, less dense water, shown in red flows north from low latitudes.

Scroll down and you'll see Ekman transport.
Quoting GatorWX:


Two days ago, it was beginning to look alright. I believe I wrote, "...but conditions do change". I have almost no confidence anymore and it seems most of my understanding of these systems so far must be thrown out the window. The basin certainly hasn't been what I've been used to last two seasons. Seems like a completely new chapter.
Don't worry,you aren't the only one, neither the guys at NHC,just remember last year forecasting "fiasco"...
Quoting BahaHurican:
Wow, Taz.... thanks 4 that.... amazing to see snow at Togwotee already.... one can hope it means good snow for the Jackson Hole area, and therefore good skiing this season...



Yep
662. beell
Quoting GatorWX:
I see our catl wave petered! lol



There's still a weak broad spin, void of convection, dry air is doing its job, again...
Quoting 662. beell:


Outflow boundary noted.
665. JRRP
Quoting GatorWX:
I see our catl wave petered! lol




as expected
Quoting ElConando:


As bad as winter of 2009-2010 was in Florida? That was a coooooold winter.


No kidding. That was the only winter I've lived here where I've seen icicles on houses.
Quoting 660. HuracanTaino:

Don't worry,you aren't the only one, neither the guys at NHC,just remember last year forecasting "fiasco"...


We don't speak of 2013 :)
Quoting 646. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Hey hydrus can you post the NAO diagram for us, TIA.
Breezy here today!



And slow here! Not much going on? Have a great Labor Day weekend everyone!
Fresh ASCAT of the wave in the Central Atlantic. Very broad low..

Quoting Tazmanian:
Time to take a break from summer hvy snow is falling on this web cam



The high today is supposed to be 56 degrees there today and in the low 70s by Wednesday.

I guess they got some unexpected snowfall last night?

Quoting 636. midgulfmom:

Good Morning, just thought this was interesting:Link


Well, not saying it can't or won't happen, but a couple of comments:

--Nowhere is it mentioned which "experts" are being cited.

--The author--Luis West--is a journalism student, and one of four staff members of the staff of FoxWeekly.com. Mr. West's focus: "U.S., World, Business Politics, Science, Health & Breaking".

--The "most popular" headlines on FoxWeekly right now are (in order): 1) "Is this Justin Bieber's Lost Brother?"; 2) "Wil GTA V for PC be Canceled?"; 3) "Soulja Boy, the New Face of Hip-Hop"

Verdict: I'd wait until a more credible journalist writing for a more credible outfit quotes a more credible source.
The GFS keeps low pressure in the southern BOC for the next week or so. It kind of remind me of last year?
Wasn't it last year that we kept getting lows in the BOC?
Couldn't get the link to work, the problem not on WU end. Anyway just copied the text from Fox News Weekly article on 8-20-2014. Here it is, just thought it was interesting but how quickly things change:

MIAMI — It has been close to a decade since South Florida has felt the agonizing impact of a major hurricane. Although this year will bring less named storms, meteorological experts are now predicting that Miami will feel a major hurricane this year. The last time that South Florida has been hit by a major storm, was when the record-breaking Hurricane Wilma ripped through the Atlantic in 2005. Since then, South Florida has been maintaining a lucky streak. But nothing lasts forever. According to experts, the latest batch of African waves entering the Atlantic Ocean, are starting to show signs of increasing development. The way that the subtropical ridge is positioned, the next couple of African waves could strike South Florida and the Gulf Of Mexico. One wave could even potentially follow the same track as Hurricane Andrew back in 1992. For any Andrew survivors, Hurricane Andrew was the FIRST named storm of the 1992 Atlantic hurricane season. Yes, the first storm was formed in Mid-Late August. The 1992 hurricane season had one of the lowest activity, with just one 7 storms, four hurricanes, and just ONE major hurricane. This proves that you don’t need an average or above average hurricane season to experience a historic tropical cyclone. Andrew had maximum sustained winds of 175 MPH, and was classified as a Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
Andrew started as a Tropical Wave of the coast of Africa and made landfall over the Miami coast, devastating areas such as Kendall, Homestead, Cutler Bay, Miami Springs, Coral Gables and Florida City. The storm reportedly made landfall as a strong Category 4 storm, although some sources say it regained Category 5 strength right before landfall. Whatever the case was in 1992, we are here now with an active hurricane season and all bets are on the table. All eyes are on the Atlantic and most importantly, the African tropical waves.


wind shear going down where invest 99L IS.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
678. beell
Quoting 664. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Outflow boundary noted.


Happy people west of outflow boundary not visible.
:)
Quoting SLU:


lol ...

I'm glad I had the privilege to have tracked the majority of the last active era but I do feel sorry for you guys who just logged on. It might be a good 15 - 25 years before we see another interesting phase like what just ended. Sorry.
In Puerto Rico we had 33 years without a mayor Hurricane hitting us directly,from 1956,Betzy,locals called it "Santa Clara", to 1989, Hugo, it helped the island to flourished, economically speaking. The next 20 years were quite busy, Marilyn, Luis, George, Jenny , Hortence, Irene, little Surprise,TS Olga, a couple of weeks before Christmas,2007.
680. SLU
Quoting 679. HuracanTaino:

In Puerto Rico we had 36 years without a mayor Hurricane hitting us directly,from 1956,Betzy,locals called it "Santa Clara", to 1989, Hugo, it help the island to flourished, economically speaking. The next 20 years where quite busy, Marilyn, Luis, George, Jenny , Hortence, Irene, little Surprise,TS Olga, a couple of weeks before Christmas,2007.


PR was also very lucky in 2005. There was like a hurricane shield around the island.
Quoting 672. Sfloridacat5:



The high today is supposed to be 56 degrees there today and in the low 70s by Wednesday.

I guess they got some unexpected snowfall last night?


There's a little stretch of the Rockies south of Yellowstone where snow is only considered unusual in July.... lol .. . which is not to say it hasn't snowed then, either.... lol... Togwotee Pass is in that area.....
Quoting BahaHurican:
There's a little stretch of the Rockies south of Yellowstone where snow is only considered unusual in July.... lol .. . which is not to say it hasn't snowed then, either.... lol... Togwotee Pass is in that area.....


Yeah, being at a location of 8600 ft. elevation and around 43 degrees North Latitude can produce snow at almost anytime of year.