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Cristobal a Hurricane; Little Change to 97L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:25 PM GMT on August 26, 2014

It doesn't look much like hurricane, but the Hurricane Hunters measured surface winds around 75 mph on Monday evening and Tuesday morning in Hurricane Cristobal, making it the third hurricane of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season. These missions proved the value of hurricane hunter flights, since there is no way that we would have known Cristobal was a hurricane based on satellite data. The storm is stretched out in a long line of heavy thunderstorms, has no eye or low-level spiral bands, and is giving early August's Hurricane Bertha some stiff competition for ugliest Atlantic hurricane of the century. Along with Hurricane Arthur and Hurricane Bertha, Cristobal gives us three Atlantic hurricanes so far this year, exceeding the entire 2013 Atlantic hurricane season total. The second (and final) hurricane of the 2013 season (Ingrid) did not arrive until September 14. On average, the third hurricane of the Atlantic season arrives on September 9, and the third named storm of the year on August 13. The last time the first three named storms in the Atlantic became hurricanes was in 1983, when Alicia, Barry and Chantal all became hurricanes (if we exclude 1992, when an unnamed subtropical storm formed prior to the arrival of Hurricanes Andrew, Bonnie, and Charley.) Cristobal continues to dump heavy rains over the Central and Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands as the storm heads northeastwards out to sea. Satellite loops show that Cristobal is struggling with wind shear, with a center of circulation partially exposed to view, and all the heavy thunderstorms pushed to the south and east sides of the center. The only land area at risk from Cristobal is Bermuda, and the 5 am EDT Tuesday Wind Probability Forecast from NHC gave that island a 27% chance of experiencing tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph. The GOES-14 satellite is in rapid-scan mode over Cristobal on Tuesday, and you can access an impressive 1-minute resolution satellite loop of the storm from the NOAA/RAMMB website.


Figure 1. MODIS true-color image showing Tropical Storm Cristobal's intense thunderstorms stretching from the Southeast Bahamas to Bermuda at 2 pm EDT on August 25, 2014. At the time, Cristobal had top winds of 60 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Little change to 97L headed towards the Lesser Antilles
A tropical wave (Invest 97L) was near 13°N, 47°W on Tuesday morning, about 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, and was headed west to west-northwest at about 15 mph. Satellite loops show the wave has changed little since Monday, and has a modest amount of spin but only a small amount of heavy thunderstorms. Water vapor satellite images and the Saharan Air Layer analysis show that 97L is located in a dry environment, which is keeping development slow. Wind shear was a moderate 10 - 20 knots, which should allow some slow development. Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27.5°C, which is warm enough to allow some slow development. The wave should arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Friday and be near Puerto Rico on Saturday, according to the Tuesday morning runs of the GFS model. None of the three reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation predict 97L will develop over the next five days. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 0% and 20%, respectively. These odds are 10% lower than their previous advisory, and NHC has stopped running their suite of models on 97L.

New tropical wave coming off coast of Africa this weekend
A large and powerful tropical wave will move off the coast of Africa on Friday evening, and the GFS model has been very aggressive in recent runs about developing this wave into a tropical storm within a day of its emergence. The other reliable models for tropical cyclone genesis, the European and UKMET models, have not been developing this wave right away. Residents of the Cape Verde Islands should anticipate the possibility of heavy rain and strong winds on Saturday as the wave moves west at 10 - 15 mph across the islands. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 0% and 30%, respectively.

The Gulf of Mexico is worth watching
In the Gulf of Mexico, heavy thunderstorm activity has diminished since Monday along a weak cold front stretching from South Florida to the Louisiana coastal waters. Some models show a weak area of low pressure developing along this front and moving westwards over Texas by Friday, and we should keep an eye on this region for development.


Figure 2. MODIS true-color image of Hurricane Marie in the Eastern Pacific taken at approximately 18:15 UTC (2:15 pm EDT) on August 25, 2014. At the time, Marie was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Powerful Hurricane Marie generating huge waves in Eastern Pacific
The Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Marie had weakened to a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds on Tuesday morning, but was still generating huge swells that were bringing large waves to the coasts of Southern California and Mexico's Baja Peninsula. At 5 am EDT on Tuesday, Marie's tropical storm-force winds covered a huge area of ocean, up to 275 miles from the center, and 12-foot high seas extended up to 550 miles from the center. A High Surf Advisory is in effect for Los Angeles, where waves of 10 - 15 feet will potentially cause structural damage to piers and beachside property as well as significant beach erosion. The powerful surf will be accompanied by strong rip currents and long-shore currents, making for very hazardous swimming and surfing conditions through Thursday. Satellite loops on Tuesday morning showed a steady degradation of Marie's cloud pattern, with the eyewall cloud tops warming and the areal coverage of the strongest thunderstorms decreasing. The storm is headed to the northwest over cooler waters and into drier air, and will not affect any land areas.

You can see a spectacular loop of infrared satellite images of Marie as it intensified into a Category 5 storm on Sunday at the CIMSS University of Wisconsin.

Hurricane expert Steve Gregory, who subbed for me while I was on vacation last week, is now providing regular updates on the Atlantic in his blog, three times per week. Steve will sub for me again on Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 1000. unknowncomic:

Westbound?

GFS overly intensifies the wave and causes it to break part of the high, if its weaker its heading further west..
Quoting unknowncomic:
That could be a small problem.

It would be stronger looking at it
It takes it through the Caribbean and with the high TCHP well you could imagine would could happen
FIX IT!!
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Ouch! Throw in some nice Arctic Outbreaks and we are in business across the south for some Winter Storms with lots of snow, ice, and severe weather across FL.

February



What's the ch of CA seeing Arctic Outbreaks this fall and winter
What on earth happened to Cristobal while I was asleep? I was hoping for a nice eye feature. :(

Interesting to see we have 98L. It has a good vort at the 850mb level and is firing good convection, maybe a TD or minimal TS before it moves inland? Also quite interesting to see that Ex97L is expected to go into the West Caribbean/Bay Of Campeche now. A somewhat exciting week ahead for the tropics, especially with the strong wave that's about to come off Africa! :)
We have already had 3 hurricanes form in the Atlantic, during the 2014 hurricane season .. so far.

According to Dr. JM's blog, this has not happened since 1992 and 1983. Both of those years did not have many named storms in the Atlantic basin. The years 1991-92 and 1982-83 were moderate to strong El-Nino events.

Although 1992 and 1983 were slow years in the number of named storms, Andrew (1992) and Alicia (1983) made landfalls in the USA as major hurricanes.

Although the latest system in the NW Gulf is not a Hurricane Alicia ... by any stretch of the imagination, it is looking more interesting this morning!
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
GFS overly intensifies the wave and causes it to break part of the high, if its weaker its heading further west..

I think GFS does indeed over intensifies I don think that will happen I think either it follows similar to the rest of the storms we had this year or even further W
we have invest 98L
Quoting 980. StormTrackerScott:

This near warming phase is paving the way for this new warm pool to surface now that the SOI is hovering around -8 which is El-Nino threshold.

We've been seeing this rerun from you over and over for 6 months.
Quoting 977. StormTrackerScott:

Notice how many ensembles for Nino 1&2 shot up to near 2C come next April. It just may be that the 2015 could be one of the slowest hurricane seasons ever. Not what some want to here on here for sure.




And on the other hand, wouldn't an El-Nino give us all those pretty hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific? I always liked watchin them since the majority head west or northwest out to sea.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


The East I think will you guys across California will be very wet it appears. Great news for you Taz. I posted these just for you.



Good news
1017. Pallis1
Let's see if they try to raise gas prices because dust blew off some Texas City refineries. Last time Galveston took a mild hit on the north end that was their excuse, and the media reported it.
Quoting 1001. StormTrackerScott:

March 2015 looks fun too. A March to remember. Maybe better than March 1993? Well see.




My brother would love colder, snowier weather...he'd be happy to see that forecast. :) I might use a bit myself
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Warmer than average up north and cooler than average for FL and the NW Caribbean.

Thank you
Last time we had El Niño back in 09 I think it was Winter season of 09-10 when the S had cold/freezing outbreaks well that same time when iguanas was falling out of trees in Florida and Cuba when we did get the cool stuff we did actually broke record if I did remember correctly
So funny I was wearing a thin sweater while others were wearing scarf bennies and some with winter jackets they were not needed but some just freaked out but I guess some people here just can't handle the cool or cold weather
Quoting 1008. Stormwatch247:

We have already had 3 hurricanes in the Atlantic form during the 2014 hurricane season so far.

According to Dr. JM's blog, this has not happened since 1992 and 1983. Both of those years did not have many named storms in the Atlantic basin. The years 1991-92 and 1982-83 were moderate to strong El-Nino events.

Although 1992 and 1983 were by Lyrics" style="border: none !important; display: inline-block !important; text-indent: 0px !important; float: none !important; font-weight: bold !important; height: auto !important; margin: 0px !important; min-height: 0px !important; min-width: 0px !important; padding: 0px !important; text-transform: uppercase !important; text-decoration: underline !important; vertical-align: baseline !important; width: auto !important; background: transparent !important;">slow years in the number of named storms, Andrew (1992) and Alicia (1983) made landfalls in the USA as major hurricanes.

Although the latest system in the NW Gulf is not a Hurricane Alicia ... by any stretch of the imagination, it is looking more interesting this morning!
Plenty of TCHP to work with in places . Its feeling HOT HOT HOT.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Maybe the maps I posted this morning will put smiles on peoples faces across California as it appears the drought will end.



Will have too see if the CFS. Are right. Re call last year ? They showed a vary wet winter and look what happen


I have noted on the 18z 00z and 06z at 384hrs wish is about mid September the W PAC starts havering some kind of pattern chages I all so noted it gets more stormy out there
Quoting 989. HurricaneAndre:

Lets try TS winds.

As much I love that, I don't think it has enough time for a ts
1025. Grothar
3 days ago, I said south of Houston. I guess I was just a little off.

1027. LargoFl
Quoting 1018. SPLbeater:



My brother would love colder, snowier weather...he'd be happy to see that forecast. :) I might use a bit myself
yep me also..sure would be interesting to walk outside and see snow again after 30 something years lol
Ex 97L sneaking up.
Quoting unknowncomic:
Plenty of TCHP to work with in places . Its feeling HOT HOT HOT.

Most of it is in the NW Caribbean


98L, gentlemen, start your engines!

Does it look like 98L has stopped moving for the last couple of hours?
I guess we have invest 98L
1033. FOREX
Quoting 1031. DellOperator:

98L, gentlemen, start your engines!

Does it look like 98L has stopped moving for the last couple of hours?
It's stuck in line at the border patrol.
1034. LargoFl
so texas or mexico next week.............................................. ..............................
1035. Bayside
Good Morning, anyone have any idea on whether the global hawks flew into Cristobal yesterday and what future missions are yet?
The Pacific sea surface temperature configuration still does not favor an El Niño, with a warm Pacific reducing the west-east wind gradient typically found in warm ENSO events. Until that changes, I don't think think we're going to see a bonafide El Niño, even with a new developing subsurface warm pool courtesy of a new downwelling oceanic kelvin wave.
1037. JRRP
1038. LargoFl
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL982014 08/27/14 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 31 33 36 39 44 47 50 50 51 50
V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 31 33 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27
V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 30 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 18 21 23 21 20 20 15 23 15 20 28 26 23
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -5 -3 -2 -6 -1 1 0 1 0 0 0
SHEAR DIR 252 236 257 278 295 288 300 254 290 283 328 306 322
SST (C) 29.9 29.6 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.8 29.2 29.5 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.6
POT. INT. (KT) 166 160 153 148 143 140 146 153 158 163 163 160 158
ADJ. POT. INT. 143 137 130 125 121 119 122 129 133 136 134 130 128
200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.6 -52.3 -52.7 -52.1 -52.4 -52.8 -53.5
TH_E DEV (C) 7 10 11 9 9 13 12 15 13 14 11 13 10
700-500 MB RH 42 42 43 44 45 53 56 54 52 50 49 43 36
GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 5 5 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -16 -6 -5 3 -6 15 28 13 8 -5 -26 -7 -5
200 MB DIV -7 -13 -14 3 -8 11 0 12 1 0 -5 -26 -15
700-850 TADV -5 3 -2 -7 -3 -2 -1 -5 -5 2 9 13 11
LAND (KM) 198 179 139 101 47 -53 -146 -230 -342 -441 -523 -580 -624
LAT (DEG N) 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.4 27.7 28.1 28.4 28.9 29.4 30.1 30.3
LONG(DEG W) 94.5 95.2 95.8 96.4 96.9 97.9 98.8 99.6 100.7 101.6 102.3 102.6 103.0
STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 4 5 4 5 5 4 4 2 2
HEAT CONTENT 48 49 46 37 22 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=624)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
-------------------------------------------------- --------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 25. 28. 30. 31.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 3. 0. -1. -4. -6. -9.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
-------------------------------------------------- --------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 14. 19. 22. 25. 25. 26. 25.

** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982014 INVEST 08/27/14 12 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.9%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%)

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982014 INVEST 08/27/14 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982014 INVEST 08/27/2014 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED
Quoting 1036. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The Pacific sea surface temperature configuration still does not favor an El Ni%uFFFDo, with a warm Pacific reducing the west-east wind gradient typically found in warm ENSO events. Until that changes, I don't think think we're going to see a bonafide El Ni%uFFFDo, even with a new developing subsurface warm pool courtesy of a new downwelling oceanic kelvin wave.


The CPC isn't at all sold on the idea of either a strong or long-lasting El Nino. In fact, they're forecasting a weak and pretty short-duration event that will develop over the next 2-5 weeks, peak in November or December, and tail off over the winter before vanishing altogether by early spring. My guess is that those banking on a long/strong event are going to be sorely disappointed. (As we've all learned from watching GW, Mother Nature seems to ignore wishful thinking.)
1041. Grothar
Quoting 1035. Bayside:

Good Morning, anyone have any idea on whether the global hawks flew into Cristobal yesterday and what future missions are yet?


The might be a mission this afternoon into 98L. This should be a fast mover and develop quickly if it does.
1042. LargoFl
Quoting LargoFl:
so texas or mexico next week.............................................. ..............................

That may or may not change either way we got a good amount of time to watch it
1044. Grothar
Quoting 1031. DellOperator:

98L, gentlemen, start your engines!

Does it look like 98L has stopped moving for the last couple of hours?


Quoting 1033. FOREX:

It's stuck in line at the border patrol.



Hahahahaaaa!

On the VIS satellite, it sure seems to have really slowed down, or possibly stalled. That might give 98L a little more time to get its act together! Gotta watch these Gulf systems, they can sometimes wind up at the last minute ....
Quoting LargoFl:

And as usual the usual 2 spiking up development
lol SHIP intensifying over land not only but over mountains
Quoting 1044. Grothar:




Was looking at the BLOB in SW Carrib!
Quoting 1037. JRRP:


more realistic than the GFS that's for sure
1049. LargoFl
Good Morning.  Here is the wave that is going to emerge off the African coast; it broke up a little bit over the coast since yesterday so not sure if the main one is the blob that is going to come off parallel to the Cape Verde Islands:
Lol Christobal now has an eye



Quoting Stormwatch247:


Was looking at the BLOB in SW Carrib!

Yes curious little thing
1053. StormWx
Jeez, cool down already. Ready for fall. Wont be cool anytime soon in the Southeast.



At least it will dry out.

1054. ncstorm
the 00z JMA goes out to 72 hours..on the last frame it has one huge area of moisture in the GOM

1055. LargoFl
tropical storm force winds sept 3rd............................................... .....................
Quoting 1044. Grothar:




I do not like that big---can I say blob?--over Panama. That is where the Tampa 1921 hurricane originated.
Regardless of development potential for the next wave, the Central Atlantic continues to be very dry and lacking a supportive ITCZ; not looking very promising at the moment for the peak period in terms of cape verde storms:



Would love it if 98L would bring some much needed rain to Corpus Christi. It's pretty dry here.
Quoting 1040. Neapolitan:



The CPC isn't at all sold on the idea of either a strong or long-lasting El Nino. In fact, they're forecasting a weak and pretty short-duration event that will develop over the next 2-5 weeks, peak in November or December, and tail off over the winter before vanishing altogether by early spring. My guess is that those banking on a long/strong event are going to be sorely disappointed. (As we've all learned from watching GW, Mother Nature seems to ignore wishful thinking.)


Waiting for Scott's response:) He's got an El Nino caused superstorm riding up the east coast in March.
1060. Grothar
Quoting 1041. Grothar:



The might be a mission this afternoon into 98L. This should be a fast mover and develop quickly if it does.


I hope you're right-we need rain on the TX Gulf Coast! No hurricanes though!
Cristobal looks healthier this morning, eye is visible on satellite.

1063. Grothar
Quoting 1056. SunnyDaysFla:



I do not like that big---can I say blob?--over Panama. That is where the Tampa 1921 hurricane originated.


The steering right now should be to the WNW. Unlikely that system would move back east or too far north.
Quoting 990. ncstorm:

Looks to be 4 potential set ups..

Two in the GOM, ex 97L and the wave off Africa..latest run..later..



Finally I see Honduras. It might very well pass north of me but I can at least get rain like I did last year of td 2 the one that became Barry.
1065. Grothar
Quoting 1061. cctxshirl:



I hope you're right-we need rain on the TX Gulf Coast! No hurricanes though!


I don't think it would be a hurricane, but it might have a very good chance of becoming a TS. I would say "in my humble opinion" by I never had one that was ever humble. :)
Quoting 1049. LargoFl:


I am back. Long time no see for those of you who know me.

98L last night was nothing, 98L this morning looks like what humberto looked like in its early stages. If it continues ramping up convection could go storm by tonight or tomorrow. Winds on the coast at Galveston are 20-25 mph already offshore winds are increasing pressure is starting to drop. Also leauge city radar showing a growing structure, and some feeder bands. As to the models I have big doubts as to this continuing to move west for much longer, there is a large front diving from the plains region into the Texas panhandle today and tonight, and if this system strengthens to a storm the combination of a deeper system and that front should allow it to move more northerly. Well have to see

Edit (meant 98L)
1068. dis1322
Yes 98L bring the rain to Central Texas!
1069. ncstorm
1067: it's 98L
1071. K8eCane
976... Be careful or someone will call you a Gulf Doomcaster. Speaking from experience.

Yes it seems to want to do something.
Quoting DataNerd:
I am back. Long time no see for those of you who know me.

97L last night was nothing, 97L this morning looks like what humberto looked like in its early stages. If it continues ramping up convection could go storm by tonight or tomorrow. Winds on the coast at Galveston are 20-25 mph already offshore winds are increasing pressure is starting to drop. Also leauge city radar showing a growing structure, and some feeder bands. As to the models I have big doubts as to this continuing to move west for much longer, there is a large front diving from the plains region into the Texas panhandle today and tonight, and if this system strengthens to a storm the combination of a deeper system and that front should allow it to move more northerly. Well have to see.

You meant 98L right?

98L is in GOM
Former 97L is near Barbados
An update:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

Corrected to include mention of possible aircraft reconnaissance
mission for system in the Gulf of Mexico.

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Cristobal, located several hundred miles west of Bermuda.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a weak low
pressure area located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico has
increased during the past few hours. Some additional development is
possible before the system moves inland over southern Texas and
northern Mexico on Thursday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system later today, if
necessary.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A tropical wave located about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
continues to produce disorganized cloudiness and showers. This
system is now expected to move generally westward across the
Caribbean Sea with little development during the next few days.
However, environmental conditions could become favorable for some
development by early next week in the western Caribbean Sea or
southern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
on Friday. Conditions appear to be favorable for some development
thereafter while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across
the eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Quoting 1048. wunderweatherman123:

more realistic than the GFS that's for sure
That looks like a possible problem.
Quoting 1072. wunderkidcayman:


You meant 98L right?

98L is in GOM
Former 97L is near Barbados


Yes I edited that post. See me in 1073 posted the newest statement from NHC they may fly the system later today based on the new convection.
The best non-damaging hope is that something just upwells all that TCHP. We know that usually doesn't happen.
1077. Grothar
Quoting 1061. cctxshirl:



I hope you're right-we need rain on the TX Gulf Coast! No hurricanes though!


There should be a significant blow up of convection over the next few hours. We'll see after that. Again, I am sure that a hurricane is quite low percentage.
Morning all

I see 98l sitting in the Gulf. Good news for the Tx coast. The south easterly shear should keep it in check prior to land fall. Unless of course that is expected to relax.
Quoting 1022. StormTrackerScott:


Looking like a good Winter across the south for those wanting winter precip. Accuweather has potential for snow across N FL this Winter. Now that would be awesome!




Source: IN-Accuweather
Roger that. I recall Alicia formed from a tail end of a front, then stalled for a bit to organize like an NFL defense huddle, then she rushed us and got a sack. (Had to figure out a way to incorporate football in there).

Not saying this will be anywhere near that case, but these can wrap up fast when that heat engine gets purring. We had a nice sunrise scene this morning in the Freeport area. You can always tell when something is out there when we get persistent east winds and lots of offshore cirrus on the horizon.

That was a pretty funny border patrol comment too.

Quoting 1045. Stormwatch247:

Quoting 1031. DellOperator:

98L, gentlemen, start your engines!

Does it look like 98L has stopped moving for the last couple of hours?





Hahahahaaaa!

On the VIS satellite, it sure seems to have really slowed down, or possibly stalled. That might give 98L a little more time to get its act together! Gotta watch these Gulf systems, they can sometimes wind up at the last minute ....
Quoting 857. guygee:

Local NWS Melbourne FL has been talking about the subsidence and thermal ridge over FL peninsula and adjoining Atlantic waters, with 500 mb temperatures approaching 0C. Pretty amazing you could go up to around 500 mb and not be freezing yet. Too hot and dry over most of the peninsula the last 10 days.

Ragged Chris-the-ball doesn't seem to like ingesting all that dry air either, down to about half a ball now.


OC (or above) in a non mountainous region at 500MB is indeed very unusual and is one of my indicators of an extreme event, comparable to a sub 900mb sea level pressure, 500mb temperature below -55C, 1000-500mb thickness above 5940M.. etc.
Quoting DataNerd:
An update:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

Corrected to include mention of possible aircraft reconnaissance
mission for system in the Gulf of Mexico.

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Cristobal, located several hundred miles west of Bermuda.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a weak low
pressure area located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico has
increased during the past few hours. Some additional development is
possible before the system moves inland over southern Texas and
northern Mexico on Thursday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system later today, if
necessary.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A tropical wave located about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
continues to produce disorganized cloudiness and showers. This
system is now expected to move generally westward across the
Caribbean Sea with little development during the next few days.
However, environmental conditions could become favorable for some
development by early next week in the western Caribbean Sea or
southern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
on Friday. Conditions appear to be favorable for some development
thereafter while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across
the eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.


Yep we saw it can wait to see what recon finds if they find 35mph and if convection can fire over the LLC we may have a TD ;)



Former 97L might explode in the hot stuff in the NW Caribbean I say we may see former 97L start rumbling between 70-75W



African AOI I hope will look better than all the storms we had so far






Between the SW shear and proximity to land, the Gulf disturbance just won't make it.

But it sure did come back from nothing overnight, and might have a very weak closed low Southwest of the convection, exposed by the shear.

To me, it looks as if the center of Cristobal has jogged a bit west of north.....any chance of those earlier model runs verifying that took it on a left turn back toward the US coast?
Quoting 1082. wunderkidcayman:



Yep we saw it can wait to see what recon finds if they find 35mph and if convection can fire over the LLC we may have a TD ;)



Former 97L might explode in the hot stuff in the NW Caribbean I say we may see former 97L start rumbling between 70-75W



African AOI I hope will look better than all the storms we had so far







That orange box means #3 is expected to head west.
1086. StormWx
Quoting WDEmobmet:




Source: IN-Accuweather


I always laugh when he tries to predict weather months or even years in advance. Its nice to laugh in the morning!
Quoting Stormwatch247:


Was looking at the BLOB in SW Carrib!




Been watching the development there since yesterday morning myself. Models that I've viewed don't show anything till the 6th but that's when 97L is in that neighborhood. Keeping a watchful eye in the meantime.

The weak mid-level low just south of western Cuba is interesting as well. Observed it on Key West radar yesterday, and SSD NOAA Imagery has it marked as 1009 low today over western Cuba.

Neither are favorable for development but interesting viewing nonetheless.
1088. Bayside
Quoting 1041. Grothar:


The might be a mission this afternoon into 98L. This should be a fast mover and develop quickly if it does.


Thanks, hopefully they get some useful data this year. The GH's seem to be a great platform for these missions. Heading over to Wallops/Chincoteague in a little over a week, might be able to get a peak, I think the kids would like that.
Quoting kilgores97:
To me, it looks as if the center of Cristobal has jogged a bit west of north.....any chance of those earlier model runs verifying that took it on a left turn back toward the US coast?

Nah it's moving N if anything N-NNE
The convection that over the system that spin has slightly shift a bit W of Due N

Quoting 1083. EdMahmoud:

Between the SW shear and proximity to land, the Gulf disturbance just won't make it.

But it sure did come back from nothing overnight, and might have a very weak closed low Southwest of the convection, exposed by the shear.




It might be a 30 knot TD 05L before CRP. The real question, does it rain on my lawn?
Aircraft leaves for Gulf system in 9 minutes.
Quoting unknowncomic:
That orange box means #3 is expected to head west.

I think GFS is over doing the system I think it will be weaker and mover further W it will be similar to storms we had this season or maybe even further W
Quoting EdMahmoud:


It might be a 30 knot TD 05L before CRP. The real question, does it rain on my lawn?
Or Dolly. :)
Quoting 1077. Grothar:



There should be a significant blow up of convection over the next few hours. We'll see after that. Again, I am sure that a hurricane is quite low percentage.

Yeah, I'm not seeing a hurricane developing but that rain sure would be welcomed here! I might even go outside and dance in the rain!
Here is the current shear and previous 24 hour rise over the AOI in the Northern Gulf; 


Recon should be interesting.

Quoting LightningCharmer:




Been watching the development there since yesterday morning myself. Models that I've viewed don't show anything till the 6th but that's when 97L is in that neighborhood. Keeping a watchful eye in the meantime.

The weak mid-level low just south of western Cuba is interesting as well. Observed it on Key West radar yesterday, and SSD NOAA Imagery has it marked as 1009 low today over western Cuba.

Neither are favorable for development but interesting viewing nonetheless.

You don't need to have models developing something for it to actually develop I've seen this happen before

Former 97L will be the key player for development in the NW Caribbean during the next 7+ or so days

There is a low to mid level trof of low pressure that extends from the outer SW section of Christobal to 98L

There was a 1009mb low near the NW tip of Cuba at 00Z but has since been removed
Quoting 1085. unknowncomic:
That orange box means #3 is expected to head west.
Actually the orange box shows where development is possible. It does not reflect expected movement.
1100. Patrap
Quoting 1092. wunderkidcayman:


I think GFS is over doing the system I think it will be weaker and mover further W it will be similar to storms we had this season or maybe even further W


So this wave is supposed to be stronger than the previous ones; and yet it is going to move further W. At the same time, 97l is going to ironically develop just before it gets to 81.2W?
Quoting 1092. wunderkidcayman:


I think GFS is over doing the system I think it will be weaker and mover further W it will be similar to storms we had this season or maybe even further W
ONLY THE GFS got this hurricane 2.. I do not think its going o happern more like a tropical storm
Quoting 1068. dis1322:

Yes 98L bring the rain to Central Texas!


We need it. Yesterday we had a couple of lightning induced grass fires in the Austin area. Vegetation has been thick from previous rains a few months back but fuel moisture levels have been extremely low.
Quoting HurricaneAndre:
Or Dolly. :)

I'm kinda skeptical about 98L becoming a TS it might but I do believe it's got a good shot at becoming TD5 it just may make it to TS Dolly at landfall

Quoting 1096. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Recon should be interesting.






That's better. ;)
Quoting 1097. SFLWeatherman:


Whoa, that looks a lot more like a tropical low/invest than it did yesterday. No wonder it got tagged.
1107. Patrap
Quoting 1092. wunderkidcayman:


I think GFS is over doing the system I think it will be weaker and mover further W it will be similar to storms we had this season or maybe even further W


Now that is a surprise:)
98L=Stationary

Here is the last Dolly this is where it made landfall the last time


South Padre Island landfall

Looks like 98L wants to locate at 27n 95W.
1113. tutanka
Quoting 1067. DataNerd:

I am back. Long time no see for those of you who know me.

98L last night was nothing, 98L this morning looks like what humberto looked like in its early stages. If it continues ramping up convection could go storm by tonight or tomorrow. Winds on the coast at Galveston are 20-25 mph already offshore winds are increasing pressure is starting to drop. Also leauge city radar showing a growing structure, and some feeder bands. As to the models I have big doubts as to this continuing to move west for much longer, there is a large front diving from the plains region into the Texas panhandle today and tonight, and if this system strengthens to a storm the combination of a deeper system and that front should allow it to move more northerly. Well have to see

Edit (meant 98L)


First post gents. Love the blog btw. Any thought on the last part of this post as the system seems to have stalled...
1114. Patrap
Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Station KXIH
Federal Aviation Administration
Location:
 29.180N 94.521W
Date: Wed, 27 Aug 2014 13:55:00 UTC
Winds: SE (130°) at 15.9 kt gusting to 21.0 kt
Air Temperature: 82.4 F
Dew Point: 73.4 F
Visibility: 7.8 nmi
View Details Opens in new window - View 
Due east of Galveston.  Lower level coc is on the move but the upper level shear is preventing stacking and blowing off convection to the east.  Not sure if it can pull it together in time before moving onshore over the next 24.
1116. Patrap
From the NHC 8am Atlantic Disco
...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS
THE ENTIRE AREA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE WEST OF 88W.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
...NORTHWESTWARD...TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF OF MEXICO COAST.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN BASIN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 100 NM
OF THE COAST OF THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER.

EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW MAINLY BETWEEN 10-20 KT IS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
UNDER 10KT DOMINATES THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KGHB AND KEMK.
Quoting 1093. HurricaneAndre:

Or Dolly. :)
I really hope it becomes Dolly but I believe at most it will find td 5.
Quoting StormJunkie:


So this wave is supposed to be stronger than the previous ones; and yet it is going to move further W. At the same time, 97l is going to ironically develop just before it gets to 81.2W?


Do I don't think this one will be stronger
Compared to what GFS shows yes
I think it will follow similarly to the last 3 storms if not further W

And the last bit what the hell is that supposed to mean

Quoting hurricanes2018:
ONLY THE GFS got this hurricane 2.. I do not think its going o happern more like a tropical storm

Agreed till it gets further W like either where the other 3 became hurricanes or in the W Caribbean or GOM bit way to far out to speculate

Quoting luvtogolf:


Now that is a surprise:)

What it
1119. ricderr
was too busy to post yesterday....but the aussie mets released their enso update....tthings remain the same and their is stikll a good chance el nino will be here at or by winter


Little change in the tropical Pacific Ocean
Issued on Tuesday 26 August 2014 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00
Despite tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures remaining at neutral levels, models suggest El Niño development remains possible during the coming months.
The brief weakening of the trade winds over the Pacific Ocean earlier in August produced little warming of tropical sea surface temperatures. However, waters below the surface of the Pacific have warmed during the past few weeks, and therefore above-average temperatures near the surface are likely to persist or strengthen over the coming months.
Four of the seven climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest El Niño is likely by the Australian summer of 2014–15. These model outlooks and current observations mean the Bureau’s ENSO Tracker remains at WATCH status. This indicates the chance of El Niño developing in the coming months is at least 50%, which is around double the normal likelihood of an event.
El Niño-like weather patterns can occur even if an event hasn’t become fully established. In 2014, these have included below-average rainfall across parts of eastern Australia, above-average daytime temperatures and a number of significant frost events.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains negative. Model outlooks suggest this negative IOD event is unlikely to persist for long, with models suggesting the IOD will return to neutral in early spring. A negative IOD pattern typically brings wetter winter and spring conditions to inland and southern Australia
1120. Patrap




Would be interesting if 98L center relocated further north while it is sitting there not moving. I just want some rain out of this.
1122. Patrap
Quoting Patrap:




This looks like Edouard from 2008. :)
1124. tutanka
Quoting 1121. DavidHOUTX:

Would be interesting if 98L center relocated further north while it is sitting there not moving. I just want some rain out of this.


I have that same radar picture on my phone as i was sitting on my back porch watching the pine trees bend in half and pieces of my neighbors house fly off.
wkc - Even the Euro shows it stronger than previous waves. Not as strong as the GFS, but stronger. Given that all of the previous waves that developed moved more northward well before 81.2W...Why would you think the African wave will defy that setup; and the general consensus that it will turn N in the CATL?
1126. ricderr
monthly 3.4 region anomalies were at 0.2c......down from the 0.5c of june......with another warm pool inching in place....watch the numbers in sept and october....they could trigger this event

Monthly sea surface temperatures
The SST anomaly map for July shows the equatorial Pacific cooled compared to the preceding month. July SSTs were warmer than average in the eastern tropical Pacific east of 110°W, extending into the northern Pacific basic, and in an area of the western tropical Pacific just west of the Date Line, with warm anomalies also present to Australia’s northwest and extending into the Indian Ocean.
1127. ricderr
Southern Oscillation Index
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has fallen over the past fortnight, and has remained at values around −9 over the past week. The latest approximate 30-day SOI value to 24 August is −9.3.


as you can see the SOI is finally in place for en el nino event
1128. ricderr
Trade winds
Trade winds over the equatorial Pacific have returned to average (see anomaly map for the 5 days ending 10 August). The westerly wind anomalies seen earlier in the month did not persist, which meant that further warming of ocean surface did not occur in the tropical Pacific.


and here has been the kicker ever since we started to see a warming in the pacific......darn trade winds are still not coperating
Quoting 1121. DavidHOUTX:

Would be interesting if 98L center relocated further north while it is sitting there not moving. I just want some rain out of this.

I don't think we need it to move further north, the instability alone will bring us some rain.
1130. Levi32
Good morning.

I've posted a new video discussion on the tropics for those interested:

Tropical Tidbit for Wednesday, August 27th
Quoting 1125. StormJunkie:

wkc - Even the Euro shows it stronger than previous waves. Not as strong as the GFS, but stronger. Given that all of the previous waves that developed moved more northward well before 81.2W...Why would you think the African wave will defy that setup; and the general consensus that it will turn N in the CATL?

<-------------------



I'll go ahead and report myself. ;)
Where's recon for 98L?
2. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71
A. 27/1600Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 27/1415Z
D. 27.0N 96.0W
E. 27/1530Z TO 27/1930Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
1133. ricderr
if you're a friend of the poama model....you can see the means shows a late winter event....which will be weak...and short lived.......

Could 98L do a Humberto 2007?
1998 GEORGES
Quoting HuracandelCaribe:
1998 GEORGES
Really Doommm.
Quoting 1103. calkevin77:



We need it. Yesterday we had a couple of lightning induced grass fires in the Austin area. Vegetation has been thick from previous rains a few months back but fuel moisture levels have been extremely low.


We sure have a lot of 'set-up' for such low hope in our forecast... none of our local mets have been
nailing anything for a while now. Bob Rose has been closest, but seems his casts are two days late for
the last month. Waiting for the first EPAC to track N instead of W like the rest.. that's when things start
looking up.
Quoting 1121. DavidHOUTX:

Would be interesting if 98L center relocated further north while it is sitting there not moving. I just want some rain out of this.


That'd be nice.


2008 Dolly, even from SPI, rained on my lawn. 2008 Edouard rained on my lawn. Except for that September storm, which also rained on my lawn but caused some issues, 2008 was the perfect year for my lawn.
1139. ncstorm
000
WTNT44 KNHC 271441
TCDAT4

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

Some deep convection has redeveloped near the center of Cristobal
during the past few hours, mainly in the western semicircle.
Satellite imagery shows dry air wrapping south and east of the
center interspersed with a couple of convective bands. The initial
intensity remains 70 kt, and another aircraft will be investigating
the cyclone this afternoon. There is still some potential for
Cristobal to strengthen as a tropical cyclone during the next day or
so before it begins extratropical transition, which should be
complete shortly after 48 hours. Cristobal is expected to be a
powerful extratropical cyclone by Friday night or Saturday, and then
slowly weaken before being absorbed by another cyclone at the end of
the period. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous
one and close to the IVCN intensity consensus while Cristobal
remains a tropical cyclone.

Cristobal has wobbled a little to the left this morning, with an
initial motion estimate of 355/10. All of the guidance is unanimous
in turning Cristobal north-northeastward and then northeastward
during the next 24 hours and accelerating the cyclone into the
mid-latitude westerlies.
A continued northeasterly motion is
expected through the remainder of the cyclone's life cycle. The
track model guidance is tightly clustered, but the NHC forecast has
shifted to the left of the previous one by about a half a degree due
to the initial position and motion being to the left of the previous
track. The new NHC track is close to a consensus of the GFS and
ECMWF models through 72 hours, and a little south of that consensus
at 96 hours.

The extratropical portion of the forecast has been coordinated with
the Ocean Prediction Center.
Quoting 1138. EdMahmoud:



That'd be nice.


2008 Dolly, even from SPI, rained on my lawn. 2008 Edouard rained on my lawn. Except for that September storm, which also rained on my lawn but caused some issues, 2008 was the perfect year for my lawn.

Lawn? What's that? We have cracked dirt-LOL.
Quoting 1138. EdMahmoud:



That'd be nice.


2008 Dolly, even from SPI, rained on my lawn. 2008 Edouard rained on my lawn. Except for that September storm, which also rained on my lawn but caused some issues, 2008 was the perfect year for my lawn.


Lol that is true, except the years afterwards were a nightmare for my lawn.
1142. GatorWX
Hmmm, interesting! Oh and morning everyone.

I welcome a warm ENSO. A wet Winter, with an outside shot of a freezing or frozen precipitation event- e, Winter, being cold and everything, depresses me, but an active STJ and the chance of systems bringing strong FUNdertorms, or maybe sleet r even snow, it makes Winter less depressing than usual.
Quoting 1133. ricderr:

if you're a friend of the poama model....you can see the means shows a late winter event....which will be weak...and short lived.......




Some hints of a 3rd warm pool by next April & May on the CFS. Not surprised since its been so long since we've had an El-Nino.

Last 2 year El-Nino I believe was 1986 & 1987.
Quoting GatorWX:
Hmmm, interesting! Oh and morning everyone.

Maybe a STWO for. 98L, looks to bet rapidly organizing.
Either no matter the strength of El-Nino this Winter it appears that a very strong southern jet is going to plow into California giving them some much needed drought relief. Maybe snow as well across a good chunk of the south come January & February.
1147. GatorWX
Sorry. I guess the visible of 98 was already posted. ...like ten times.

So I'll just post this:

Quoting GatorWX:
Hmmm, interesting! Oh and morning everyone.

If this was further south and east Doommm. Warm waters, anticyclone, moist environment.
12z NAM continues to show a system coming up out or the Western Caribbean in 3-4 day.

This is similar to the Humberto scenario in 2007; Humberto was struggling just off the coast of Texas and reached TS status just before coming onshore.............................Have to see how it turns out.
Tropical cyclone information statement for:

NEWFOUNDLAND


For hurricane cristobol.

The next statement will be issued by 3:00 PM ADT.

Cristobal (pronounced crees-toh-bahl) to track south of Newfoundland Friday - merging with a trough over Nova Scotia.

1. Summary of basic information at 9.00 AM ADT.

Location: 31.6 north 72.0 west.

About 525 kilometres southeast of Cape Hatteras.

Maximum sustained winds: 130 km/hour.

Present movement: north near 20 km/h.

Minimum central pressure: 982 MB.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

It still does not look like this storm will affect land - however - there will be ocean swells along the southern Atlantic coastlines of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland on Thursday and Friday, respectively.

A trough of low pressure will approach the Maritimes today then transform into a low pressure system over Nova Scotia early Thursday as the hurricane tracks well to the south. The non-tropical low and the hurricane are forecast to merge into one large and intense low pressure system over the Grand Banks. Our thinking is that the strongest winds from the merged systems should stay well offshore. There will be some wind and rain over Atlantic Canada tomorrow and Friday that will not - repeat - not be directly related to Cristobal. Possible indirect effects, however, are explained below.

A. Wind.

Some gusty winds are likely over Newfoundland on Friday not directly from the hurricane - at least not as we see it at this point in time.

B. Rainfall.

There will be unrelated rainfall over parts of Atlantic Canada Thursday and Friday. Note that the presence of the hurricane may cause the trough/non-tropical low pressure to move more slowly than would be the case without the hurricane. This can therefore lead to increased rainfall totals beyond what computer models may suggest. We will certainly keep an eye on this and will advise if anything changes.

C. Surge/waves.

As discussed above, Atlantic coastal Nova Scotia may see ocean swells giving moderate surf and rip tide conditions on Thursday. Same situation for Newfoundland South Coast on Friday.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

The main concern with this storm - and its interaction with the non-tropical weather features - is the potential for very large waves and hurricane-force winds over the Southern Grand Banks.

Interests in the Northern Grand Banks should remain on alert in case there are indications of a farther-north track. The hurricane will be gaining energy as a post-tropical storm and may possess high westerly to northwesterly winds immediate to the left (north) of its track as the centre passes by.

Visit weatheroffice.Gc.Ca/hurricane (all in lower case) for the latest:

- forecast position, central pressure table.

- strength and predicted wind radii table.

- hurricane track information map.

- technical discussion.

Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings issued by Environment Canada for your area.

Forecaster(s): fogarty
Quoting GatorWX:
Hmmm, interesting! Oh and morning everyone.



Yeah, if it can stay over water. Not sure how much time it has "if" it moves towards Texas.
I would be nice if the convection sheared Northeast of the LLC of 98L did try to pull the LLC towards it and increase the chances of rain on my lawn.
1154. Patrap

Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

12z NAM at 84 hours really wants to develop something in the Western Caribbean.
Quoting 1146. StormTrackerScott:

Either no matter the strength of El-Nino this Winter it appears that a very strong southern jet is going to plow into California giving them some much needed drought relief. Maybe snow as well across a good chunk of the south come January & February.


Snow in the mountains is as important as rain, SoCal's Summer water is conveniently stored in the mountain snow pack.
1158. tutanka
Quoting 1152. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, if it can stay over water. Not sure how much time it has "if" it moves towards Texas.


If it does stall for a day or so, would the front coming in from the north have an effect on the storm?
1159. Patrap
Echo Tops

Lake Charles Radar



If you mentally filter out the higher wind speeds caused by 98L itself, it should drift WSW about 5-10 knots in the short term if CIMSS shallow steering is any guide.


1161. K8eCane
Here in Wilmington NC we are well to the west of Cristobal. My dog Shiloh and i jst took a walk. Its hot out, but its absolutely gorgeous. I could not find even a hint of a cloud in the carolina blue sky. Slightly breezy. Its like Cristobel has sort of sucked up everything and left a perfectly peaceful atmosphere. Its amazing out there.
1162. GatorWX
Quoting 1152. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, if it can stay over water. Not sure how much time it has "if" it moves towards Texas.


Seems rather stationary atm. Should have 24+ hrs, I would think, but I haven't looked at any recent maps or models just yet. Humberto.0? :)
98L/INV/XX/XX
Quoting tutanka:


If it does stall for a day or so, would the front coming in from the north have an effect on the storm?
Where is recon.? :(
Sheared like sheep. Humberto this isn't...
Quoting tutanka:


If it does stall for a day or so, would the front coming in from the north have an effect on the storm?


It's hard to say. If you look at the NAM model runs I posted it takes the system into Texas within the next couple 48 hours and gives they get some nice rains.
That could definitely change though.
1167. ryang
Ryan Maue
@RyanMaue
Parent domain of HWRF 06z develops wave currently crossing Antilles -- moving very rapidly -- into Gulf next week.
1168. Patrap
Storm Total Surface Rainfall Accumulation, Lake Charles Radar

I wouldn't compare this to Humberto yet, Humberto moved due north from where it formed, this is moving westward into S. Texas. If it were to stall, strengthen a bit, then perhaps the front will pull it north?
Quoting 1165. EdMahmoud:

Sheared like sheep. Humberto this isn't...


I mentioned earlier that shear needed to drop but the general location just off the coast is correct. If memory serves me correctly, our old Blog member "Gulfscottsman" made the call on Humberto several hours before it spun up on us; he was very good and missed on the Blog.
1172. ncstorm
Quoting 1167. ryang:

Ryan Maue
@RyanMaue
Parent domain of HWRF 06z develops wave currently crossing Antilles -- moving very rapidly -- into Gulf next week.


1173. Patrap
Do anybody know where recon is. This looks like a TS.
1175. Patrap
Quoting 1165. EdMahmoud:

Sheared like sheep. Humberto this isn't...
don't be so sure sometimes things happen
The anti cyclone over the gulf has been moving nw over the last 9 hours. Would it be possible for it to stack and lower the shear?
1178. Patrap
Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile, Lake Charles radar

1179. Patrap
I
Quoting 1130. Levi32:

Good morning.

I've posted a new video discussion on the tropics for those interested:

Tropical Tidbit for Wednesday, August 27th
Thanks for the video Levi. I know its not the same but the last time I saw two storms forming from the same wave was in 2005 with Tropical storm Franklin and Gert. The northern being Franklin and the southern Gert. Might happen this time.
1181. GatorWX
Quoting 1174. HurricaneAndre:

Do anybody know where recon is. This looks like a TS.


Most likely it is, but they don't use recon in this pond, only sat obs.

Quoting 1177. SomeRandomTexan:

The anti cyclone over the gulf has been moving nw over the last 9 hours. Would it be possible for it to stack and lower the shear?
could got to stay stationary to do it moist everything up long shot but hey who knows
1184. jpsb
Quoting 1176. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

don't be so sure sometimes things happen

Well I am liking 98L thus far, cool (85ish) and breezy 10-15 here on Galveston Bay. Looking forward to some needed rain.
We still have a relatively shallow convective layer here in Houston and what clouds there are seem to really be booking it, winds are definitely out of the north or northeast.
1186. sar2401
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
The anti cyclone over the gulf has been moving nw over the last 9 hours. Would it be possible for it to stack and lower the shear?
It's possible. You can see some obvious cyclonic turning on the water vapor loop. 98L appears to be basically stationary. A good outcome would be for it to develop enough to give Texas some needed rain. As usual with anything hanging out near shore in the Gulf and having an upper level anticyclone in the vicinity, there's the possibility for some development before it does move inland.

THEIR ON THEIR WAY!! :) :)
The invest has been sitting on the runway a while. This is the one and only HDOB. They might be saving some JP-4 or whatever the turbo-props run off of...

URNT15 KNHC 271517
AF309 01FFA INVEST HDOB 01 20140827
150700 3025N 08855W 0168 ///// 0157 +338 +230 360000 000 /// /// 23
150730 3025N 08855W 0168 ///// 0157 +335 +230 360000 000 /// /// 23
150800 3025N 08855W 0168 ///// 0157 +324 +230 360000 000 /// /// 23
150830 3025N 08855W 0168 ///// 0157 +322 +230 360000 000 /// /// 23
150900 3025N 08855W 0168 ///// 0157 +327 +229 360000 000 /// /// 23
150930 3025N 08855W 0168 ///// 0157 +341 +229 360000 000 /// /// 23
151000 3025N 08855W 0168 ///// 0157 +348 +229 360000 000 /// /// 23
151030 3025N 08855W 0168 ///// 0157 +325 +229 360000 000 /// /// 23
151100 3025N 08855W 0168 ///// 0154 +347 +229 360000 000 /// /// 23
151130 3025N 08855W 0168 ///// 0157 +355 +229 360000 000 /// /// 23
151200 3025N 08855W 0168 ///// 0157 +334 +230 360000 000 /// /// 23
151230 3025N 08855W 0168 ///// 0157 +326 +231 360000 000 /// /// 23
151300 3025N 08855W 0168 ///// 0157 +340 +231 360000 000 /// /// 23
151330 3024N 08855W 0168 ///// 0157 +326 +231 360000 000 /// /// 23
151400 3024N 08856W 0170 ///// 0156 +324 +230 360000 000 /// /// 23
151430 3024N 08856W 0166 ///// 0156 +339 +230 360000 000 /// /// 23
151500 3024N 08856W 0166 ///// 0155 +349 +229 360000 000 /// /// 23
151530 3024N 08856W 0166 ///// 0156 +358 +229 360000 000 /// /// 23
151600 3024N 08856W 0167 ///// 0156 +364 +228 360000 000 /// /// 23
151630 3024N 08856W 0167 ///// 0156 +372 +227 360000 000 /// /// 23
$$
;

Quoting ncstorm:



Wow can someone send me links to websites with the HWRF thanks

New low in sw Caribbean.
Quoting 1137. redwagon:



We sure have a lot of 'set-up' for such low hope in our forecast... none of our local mets have been
nailing anything for a while now. Bob Rose has been closest, but seems his casts are two days late for
the last month. Waiting for the first EPAC to track N instead of W like the rest.. that's when things start
looking up.


I hear you. My fear is that this impending el nino has stymied any chance for Texas precip from the ATL hurricane season, followed by a cooler than projected equatorial pacific come fall/winter. Therefore minimal rain now and a bust for the so called drought busting el nino storms later in the year. The death ridge, while nothing compared to 2011, in size and intensity has been firmly in place off and on over the last month. With that said, I am hoping for some EPAC moisture to get pulled up in a few pacific troughs later on next month as we saw in 2012.
1193. LargoFl
1194. LargoFl
Better this scenario of a possible TS spinning up close to the coast and bringing in some rain as opposed to a Cat 3 in the middle of the Gulf and folks praying for it to weaken before land fall..............................
1196. BayFog


Karina not dead yet. About to cross a warm pool of 30 C plus SSTs.
1198. LargoFl
Quoting 1195. weathermanwannabe:

Better this scenario of a possible TS spinning up close to the coast and bringing in some rain as opposed to a Cat 3 in the middle of the Gulf and folks praying for it to weaken before land fall..............................
yes indeed, im guessing alot of folks in texas will be thankful for the rain thats supposedly coming with this storm..and even if..it does go to TS im sure most came handle that too...
Invest plane is airborne. Nevermind.


Hard time seeing a naked swirl well removed from any convection classified, but it is close to land, so I go Glass 3/8th optimistic on 05L, and Glass 3/16th optimistic on 35 knot Dolly.
Nice 850mb Vort.



500? Not so much.

Quoting 1194. LargoFl:




I don't see decay SHIPS, and this has no more than 2 days over water the way it looks now...
1202. LargoFl
Convection warming due to dry air and being blown away from the loosely organized center due to shear. Development, while not impossible, is unlikely.

Who wants to make a bet we don't see any rain from this?
1206. LargoFl
south texas forecast.......................................... .................................................. .....
Quoting 1202. LargoFl:


1207. sar2401
Quoting tutanka:


If it does stall for a day or so, would the front coming in from the north have an effect on the storm?


There's a front coming in from the NW but it appears at this time that 98L will be inland before it arrives. The front may be able to pick up that energy and form another low in west Texas but that appears to be it at this time.

Quoting 1181. GatorWX:



Most likely it is, but they don't use recon in this pond, only sat obs.




I don't blame the US for pulling the 54th WRS, but one would think Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Viet Nam, the PRC, and if it moved South of the Equator for Winter and Spring, Australia, between them, could come up with a couple of joint force C-130s modified to the WC-130J role, with the UN WMO, the JMA, having responsibility for tasking in the Northern Hemisphere and perhaps the Australian BoM tasking the Southern Hemisphere.
Quoting 1201. EdMahmoud:



I don't see decay SHIPS, and this has no more than 2 days over water the way it looks now...

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 31 33 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27

Link
Quoting 1203. MAweatherboy1:

Convection warming due to dry air and being blown away from the loosely organized center due to shear. Development, while not impossible, is unlikely.




This.
Quoting 1195. weathermanwannabe:

Better this scenario of a possible TS spinning up close to the coast and bringing in some rain as opposed to a Cat 3 in the middle of the Gulf and folks praying for it to weaken before land fall..............................


The BAMD track would sure help the Highland Lakes Chain out....lots of moisture N of TX to wrap in if 98
can get to Centex and stall.. like Amelia in '78.
1212. LargoFl
nws corpuc christi isnt mentioning 98L at all, just scattered showers possible.
1213. sar2401
Quoting EdMahmoud:


I don't blame the US for pulling the 54th WRS, but one would think Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Viet Nam, the PRC, and if it moved South of the Equator for Winter and Spring, Australia, between them, could come up with a couple of joint force C-130s modified to the WC-130J role, with the UN WMO, the JMA, having responsibility for tasking in the Northern Hemisphere and perhaps the Australian BoM tasking the Southern Hemisphere.
This was talked about many times during the big typhoons. It would makes sense to do that. Just don't ever expect it to happen.
1214. JRRP
1215. Dakster
Quoting 1199. EdMahmoud:

Invest plane is airborne. Nevermind.


Hard time seeing a naked swirl well removed from any convection classified, but it is close to land, so I go Glass 3/8th optimistic on 05L, and Glass 3/16th optimistic on 35 knot Dolly.


It's called racking up the flight time... And making sure that you use your budget so that next year you get the same appropriations.
Quoting 1214. JRRP:



Finally more reasonable in terms of the time it takes the African wave to develop and its strength.
1217. JRRP
1218. GetReal
Quoting 1211. redwagon:



The BAMD track would sure help the Highland Lakes Chain out....lots of moisture N of TX to wrap in if 98
can get to Centex and stall.. like Amelia in '78.





.....The state, already suffering from a previous drought, believed that the rain would help alleviate the conditions. However, the dry ground aided the flooding from the storm. The rainfall caused several rivers and creeks to flood, especially around the Texas Hill Country and northern Texas, leading to severe damage.
1220. SLU
1221. JRRP
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Finally more reasonable in terms of the time it takes the African wave to develop and its strength.

that's right
1222. sar2401
Quoting LargoFl:
nws corpuc christi isnt mentioning 98L at all, just scattered showers possible.
They do in the discussion but the outcome is likely to be showers and thunderstorms.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...GUIDANCE IS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN BRINGING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WESTWARD
ACROSS THE GULF EARLY IN THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SWING OUT OF THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY. MODELS INCREASE MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH PW VALUES CLIMBING ABOVE 2 INCHES... ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS. THESE FEATURES COMBINED WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
1223. GetReal
1224. Dakster
Sar - What's your weather like for the day? Raining and not even 50F here yet.
The Atlantic is finally starting to look normal.... Probable CV, gulf spin up, and a wave with a chance in the Caribbean.
Quoting 1205. DavidHOUTX:

Who wants to make a bet we don't see any rain from this?


Agreed. Unless the conditions lined up perfectly, and that is a big if, my guess is that any precip would come in the form of virga at best and the system would be absorbed. The ground is too dry and we would see a Don 2.0.
1227. will40
may be staying a lil southern on this run
1228. SLU
Quoting 1217. JRRP:




No surprise that the GFS has finally recollected its senses.

1229. GetReal


I guess that the SW Caribbean deserves a look now.
hmmm @BOC this could get interesting
Quoting 1228. SLU:



No surprise that the GFS has finally recollected its senses.


still takes it out to sea. i feel it will continue to shift west and west
Gotta love this...
Quoting 1230. weatherh98:

hmmm @BOC this could get interesting


That would likely get pulled north too with the front coming down
12z GFS, 126 hours--central Atlantic tropical storm should be on its way out to sea as the Bay of Campeche system (remnants of 97L + vorticity from the southwestern Caribbean Sea) begins to organize:

1235. SLU
You know it's a lackluster season when fuel is being wasted on this. It's more than obvious from convectional satellite photos that this isn't worthy of TC designation at the moment so the RECON will most likely come back to base empty handed.

It would be nice if 98L could at least spin up into a wet depression and bring beneficial rains to Texas. It just may...
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


That would likely get pulled north too with the front coming down
DOOOMM.
ex 97 potential worries me more than all the others combined. right now the models are latching onto this as boc system. looking a the sat presentation and very warm water ahead of it i dont see why this system cant be stronger than the models are anticipating and as the result follow 98 into west texas as a major hurricane. now you got it. my character did not stay at a holiday inn last night but it did eat some red cabbage.
Quoting jrweatherman:
It would be nice if 98L could at least spin up into a wet depression and bring beneficial rains to Texas. It just may...
Or TS.
Not sure if anyone is aware that a military plane crashed this morning in West Virginia. No news on the pilot.
Quoting 1220. SLU:


If I didn't know better I would have bet they were three storms in the Atlantic instead of one. Extratropical cyclones can really deceive people.
1242. JRRP
Quoting SLU:


No surprise that the GFS has finally recollected its senses.


GFS saw the 00z Euro
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Not sure if anyone is aware that a military plane crashed this morning in West Virginia. No news on the pilot.
No,very sad. :( ;(
Quoting 1233. DavidHOUTX:



That would likely get pulled north too with the front coming down


Yes anywhere from Texas to Louisiana IF that were to be the situation which I doubt it will be.
Ex-Karina is still slowly being assimilated.



Quite a few spins... 2 in the gulf from that front.
Quoting 1234. TropicalAnalystwx13:

12z GFS, 126 hours--central Atlantic tropical storm should be on its way out to sea as the Bay of Campeche system (remnants of 97L + vorticity from the southwestern Caribbean Sea) begins to organize:


I hope I receive rain from this if not I am going to be disappoint.
Quoting 1233. DavidHOUTX:



That would likely get pulled north too with the front coming down
I do not think so!! so far allway!!
1249. SLU
Quoting 1241. allancalderini:

If I didn't know better I would have bet they were three storms in the Atlantic instead of one. Extratropical cyclones can really deceive people.


The middle one can pass for a tropical cyclone at 1st glance.
Quoting 1233. DavidHOUTX:



That would likely get pulled north too with the front coming down


What's most interesting about #1230 is the system exiting TX to the N... is that the remnants of possible TS Dolly?
1251. ncstorm
12z Navgem is taking a northern route with ex 97L

Hello all, nice to meet you.





Andrew, Wilma, Katrina, Charley,Georges
12z GFS, 168 hours:

1254. K8eCane

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM WEDNESDAY...WEATHER JUST ABOUT AS QUIET AS IT GETS
(SAVE FOR THE HIGH SURF/STRONG RIPS). HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH

Thats exactly how it feels here in wilmington. Its just a beautiful day
only low at 1010mb low and more to the south on this run
1256. ncstorm
72 hours..heading to Bahamas
Quoting 1256. ncstorm:

72 hours..heading to Bahamas

levi say we need to watch the Bahamas to
Quoting 1242. JRRP:


GFS saw the 00z Euro
its more west to!!!
1259. ncstorm
96 hours
1260. sar2401
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Not sure if anyone is aware that a military plane crashed this morning in West Virginia. No news on the pilot.
I saw that. An F-15C with the Mass ANG. From the first reports, it sounds like controlled flight into terrain. The crash site has been located in western Virginia.
gem has it been right yet this yr? dismissed
1262. ncstorm
108 hours
What is the new spin emerging just SE of Galveston
1264. sar2401
Quoting allancalderini:
I hope I receive rain from this if not I am going to be disappoint.
Looks like first decent chance this season. We'll see what happens when something actually gets over the the western Caribbean.
1265. sar2401
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
What is the new spin emerging just SE of Galveston
Just more convection developing from the naked low further south. That will keep happening as we get into afternoon heating.
GFS 8 day rainfall forecast under an inch for all the inland counties around Houston. 98L is worthless.


GFS develops a TS north of the CV islands later in the run. is the model going to get upgraded to fix its northern bias?
1268. Dakster
Quoting 1260. sar2401:

I saw that. An F-15C with the Mass ANG. From the first reports, it sounds like controlled flight into terrain. The crash site has been located in western Virginia.


Sorry I brought all the rain up here to Alaska... It doesn't rain a lot in terms of inches here, it just doesn't stop.

Granted, this is "normal" for here for this time of the year. And this isn't a complaint, I don't mind it at all. Most of the time even though it is raining you don't even get wet. Not something I could say about the Southern rains. Ohh and no lightning here.
1269. sar2401
Quoting Dakster:
Sar - What's your weather like for the day? Raining and not even 50F here yet.
Clear as a bell, 90, and dewpoint of 67. Doesn't qualify as cool but at least not as hot. Still dry until maybe Sunday, and that doesn't look all that good. Do you think you could shunt a shower or two a little south? :-)
1270. ncstorm
taking ex 97L up the east coast of Florida
156 hours
famous surfer laird hamilton shooting the malibu pier on a sup https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZPO1zpDqQ8I
1273. Dakster
Quoting 1269. sar2401:

Clear as a bell, 90, and dewpoint of 67. Doesn't qualify as cool but at least not as hot. Still dry until maybe Sunday, and that doesn't look all that good. Do you think you could shunt a shower or two a little south? :-)


I'll try - but these mountains are tough send rain around. Did you get my WuMail?
maybe iNvest 99L SOON
1275. ncstorm
still sitting there on Florida..
168 hours
Quoting 1270. ncstorm:

taking ex 97L up the east coast of Florida
156 hours

LETS hope not
Quoting 1270. ncstorm:

taking ex 97L up the east coast of Florida
156 hours

african wave a fish :(
1278. ncstorm
Last frame



1279. sar2401
Quoting Dakster:


I'll try - but these mountains are tough send rain around. Did you get my WuMail?
Just noticed it now. I'll write you back since it's not a subject that I won't get in trouble for. :-)
1280. ncstorm
.
Quoting 1241. allancalderini:

If I didn't know better I would have bet they were three storms in the Atlantic instead of one. Extratropical cyclones can really deceive people.


That second system near 40N probably does have some tropical characteristics - it is far enough south to have been over the gulf stream fairly recently. It is still overall cold core, however systems like that often become STS if they get cut off from the jet stream.
Quoting 1276. hurricanes2018:

LETS hope not


Too many days of 98 to 100 degree temps have really dried things out around Orlando. Temps now in the 90 to 92 range but it was blistering hot all last week with heat indices around 120 some days.

Got out of the water in Wrightsville Beach about 3 hours ago. Overhead sets, lots of current, some power. Hooked a couple screamers. Took some gas. Bad day to be an inexperienced swimmer. Buddies in Manasquan, NJ say it's on its way up quickly.

www.surfchex.com

Quoting 1254. K8eCane:


.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM WEDNESDAY...WEATHER JUST ABOUT AS QUIET AS IT GETS
(SAVE FOR THE HIGH SURF/STRONG RIPS). HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH

Thats exactly how it feels here in wilmington. Its just a beautiful day

I must say overall this has to be the top 5 warmest its ever been so far in Orlando this year. No Winter basically at all with temps in the 80's nearly all of December and a good chunk of February. January was cooler due to stalled fronts and heavy rain.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
I see the 12z GFS picks up on the Western Caribbean system that move into the Southern GOM/BOC. NAM model also supports this.
still sitting there on Florida..
168 hours
I know you are all amused by a 168 hour forecast that hits florida, I think it is a waste of your time and bandwidth to even post such rubbish. weather forecast in general are not that accurate 3 days out at best.It has been proven time and again these longrange forecast may never get much better in the future. It is such a dynamical situation that changes hourly I just don't get it.