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Which Hurricane Model Should You Trust?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 6:25 PM GMT on August 21, 2014

Afternoon satellite images and data from the 2 pm EDT Thursday hurricane hunter mission into Invest 96L found that the storm had developed a closed surface circulation, but the storm had little in the way of organized heavy thunderstorm activity, and was not yet classifiable as a tropical depression. As we wait to see if 96L will develop or not, it is worth reviewing the performance of the models we use to forecast the track and intensity of tropical cyclones. Remember that all of these results are for storms that reached at least tropical depression status. For tropical disturbances that have not yet become a tropical depression, the intensity forecast models should not be trusted at all, and the track models will have much larger errors than analyzed here.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) did a decent job forecasting Atlantic hurricane and tropical storm tracks during 2013, with errors similar to or slightly larger than the previous 5-year means for 12 to 96 hour forecasts, according to the 2013 National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification Report, issued in May 2014. A new record accuracy for 5-day forecasts was set, though forecasts for 12 to 96 hours were slightly worse than in 2012. One possible reason for the increase in track errors in 2013 was the small number of hurricanes we had (just two.) On average, the NHC track errors steadily decrease as the intensity of a tropical cyclone increases. The average track error in an official NHC 1-day forecast in 2013 was 57 miles, and was 118 miles for 2 days, 162 miles for 3 days, 190 miles for 4 days, and 190 miles for 5 days. The official track forecasts tended to have a westward to northwestward bias of 55 - 82 miles for 3 - 5 day forecasts (i.e., the official forecast tended to fall to the west or northwest of the verifying position.)


Figure 1. Verification of official NHC hurricane track forecasts for the Atlantic, 1990 - 2013. Over the past 24 years, 1 - 3 day track forecast errors have been reduced by about 60%. Track forecast error reductions of about 40% have occurred over the past thirteen years for 4- and 5-day forecasts. Image credit: 2013 National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification Report.

NHC Intensity Forecasts: a Notable Improvement in 2013
Official NHC intensity forecasts did better than usual in 2013, and had errors lower than the 5-year average error for all forecast periods (12 hours through 5 days.) Mean forecast errors in 2013 ranged from about 5 knots (6 mph) at 12 hours to about 13 knots (15 mph) at 5 days. Errors for 72 and 96 hour intensity forecasts were nearly 50% smaller than the 5-year average. The official forecasts were biased too high at most forecast times. There has been a noticeable improvement in intensity forecasts in the past few years, but this is likely due to the lack of rapidly intensifying hurricanes. These rapid intensifiers are typically the source of the largest forecast errors.


Figure 2. Verification of official NHC hurricane intensity forecasts for the Atlantic, 1990 - 2013. Intensity forecasts have shown little to no improvement since 1990. Image credit: 2013 National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification Report.

Which Track Model Should You Trust?
As usual, in 2013 the official NHC forecast for Atlantic storms was better than any individual computer models at most forecast time periods, although NOAA's HWRF model did slightly better than the NHC official forecast for 5-day forecasts. Once again, the European Center (ECMWF) and GFS models were the top performers, when summing up all track forecasts made for all Atlantic named storms. The two models were about equal in performance for 12-hour through 72-hour forecast, with the GFS model besting the European model for 3-day, 4-day, and 5-day forecasts. NOAA's specialized regional hurricane models, the GFDL and HWRF, were also respectable in accuracy for 12-hour through 48-hour forecast accuracy in 2013, though not quite as good as the GFS and European models. The simple BAMM model and CMC models did quite poorly compared to the others.

The best-performing model averaged over the past three years has been the European Center model, with the GFS model a close second. Wunderground provides a web page with computer model forecasts for many of the best-performing track models used to predict hurricane tracks. The European Center does not permit public display of tropical storm positions from their hurricane tracking module of their model, so we are unable to put ECMWF forecasts on this page. Here are some of the better models NHC regularly looks at:

ECMWF: The European Center's global forecast model
GFS: NOAA's global forecast model
UKMET: The United Kingdom Met Office's global forecast model (not evaluated by NHC in 2013)
GFDL: The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's hurricane model, initialized using GFS data
HWRF: The intended successor for the the GFDL hurricane model, also initialized using GFS data
NAVGEM: The Navy's global forecast model (which replaced the defunct NOGAPS model in 2013)
CMC: The Canadian GEM model
BAMM: The very old Beta and Advection Model (Medium layer), which is still useful at longer ranges

If one averages together the track forecasts from the first five of these models, the NHC official forecast will rarely depart much from it. These are the five models used to formulate the TVCA consensus model seen in Figure 3; the TVCA model was very close to the official NHC forecast.


Figure 3. Skill of computer model forecasts of Atlantic named storms in 2013, compared to a "no skill" model called "CLIPER5" that uses just climatology and persistence to make a hurricane track forecast (persistence means that a storm will tend to keep going in the direction it's current going.) OFCL=Official NHC forecast; GFS=Global Forecast System model; GFDL=Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory model; HWRF=Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting model; ECMWF=European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model; TVCA=one of the consensus models that blends together up to four of the above models, plus the UKMET model (not shown); CMC=Canadian Meteorological Center (GEM) model; BAMM=Beta Advection Model (Medium depth.) The UKMET model was not evaluated. Data taken from the National Hurricane Center 2013 verification report.

Which Intensity Model Should You Trust?
Over the past three years, the official NHC intensity forecast has generally outperformed their four main intensity models. These four models were the dynamical HWRF and GFDL models, which subdivide the atmosphere into a 3-D grid around the storm and solve the atmospheric equations of fluid flow at each point on the grid, and the statistics-based LGEM and DSHP models (DSHP is the SHIPS model with inland decay of a storm factored in.) The top-performing global dynamical models for hurricane track, the GFS and European (ECMWF) models, are typically not considered by NHC forecasters when making intensity forecasts. The GFS model has done a decent job at making intensity forecasts over the past three years, but the European model has made poor intensity forecasts. In 2013 and for the period 2011 - 2013, the HWRF model was the best-performing intensity model for forecasts of 48 hours or less. The LGEM statistical model was the best one at longer-term intensity forecasts of 3 - 5 days.


Figure 4. Skill of computer model intensity forecasts of Atlantic named storms in 2011 - 2013, compared to a "no skill" model called "Decay-SHIFOR5" that uses just climatology and persistence to make a hurricane intensity forecast (persistence means that a storm will tend to maintain its current behavior.) NHC=Official NHC forecast; GFS=Global Forecast System model; GFDL=Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory model; HWRF=Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting model; ECMWF=European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model; LGEM=Logistic Growth Equation Model; DSHP=Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme with inland Decay. Image credit: 2013 National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification Report.

Some Promising New Models From the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP)
Last year was the fifth year of a ten-year project, called the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP), aimed at reducing hurricane track and intensity errors by 50%. HFIP model performance in 2013 was improved over 2012. Notably, the 15-km resolution global FIM9 model was competitive with the top-tier GFS, European, GFDL, and HWRF dynamical models for track. The University of Wisconsin non-hydrostatic intensity model (UWN) performed well for intensity forecasts. Also, as detailed in a July 11 guest blog post by Dr. Morris Bender of NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) in Princeton, New Jersey, and Dr. Vijay Tallapragada of NOAA's National Center of Environmental Prediction Environmental Modeling Center (NCEP/EMC), the intensity forecasts of the latest versions of the GFDL and HWRF hurricane models, when averaged together, make an intensity forecast that is one of the best available.

For those interested in learning more about the hurricane forecast models, NOAA has a 45-minute training video (updated for 2011.) Additional information about the guidance models used at the NHC can be found at NHC (updated in 2009) and the NOAA/HRD Hurricane FAQ (updated in 2013).

Sources of Model Data
You can view 7-day ECMWF and 16-day GFS forecasts on wunderground's wundermap with the model layer turned on.
Longer ten-day ECMWF forecasts are available from the ECMWF web site.
FSU's experimental hurricane forecast page (CMC, ECMWF, GFDL, GFS, HWRF, and NAVGEM models)
NOAA's HFIP model comparison page (GFS, ECMWF, FIM, FIM9, UKMET, and CMC models.)
Experimental HFIP models

This will be my last post until Monday. Hurricane expert Steve Gregory will be posting in my blog while I am gone the next three days.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I'm becoming confused now

The only indicator that there is a circulation N of PR is the Radar and the satellite(somewhat)

Good amount of indicators suggest a circulation is S of PR such as vort maps sfc obs data satellite and radar(somewhat)

S one would be in more favoured conditions
N one would be in less favoured conditions

Today may be a day with confusion and headache and the day just started great...
Quoting 1997. hydrus:

Yep. It was low level west of the Antilles.


No it never went west of the Antilles. The center that the models are initializing off of and the center that the NHC is looking at was investigated to be closed yesterday afternoon by the HHs, today that center is NE of San Juan, PR and its visible on radar imagery and satellite imagery, its just not closed on the western half of the circulation or it is and its very small in stature.
2003. hydrus
Quoting 1989. ProgressivePulse:

Just south of the western tip of PR, 17.1N 67.1W, is where I see the center. Shear is evident.


It gets an A in my book for areal coverage.
Worth posting the entire current NCEP am Caribbean discussion for the overall synoptic set-up in the Caribbean at the moment:
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
647 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. A STRONG
TROPICAL WAVE ENTERED THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST
ACTIVE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF THE TROUGH
AXIS...WITH ACTIVITY SPLITTING BETWEEN THE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC
WATERS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS WAVE IS INDUCING THE NORTHWARD
MODULATION OF THE ITCZ ACROSS THE FRENCH ISLANDS...WITH A DEEP
MOIST PLUME TRAILING AS THE WAVE PULLS AWAY. ALTHOUGH THE WAVE IS
TO QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS PUERTO RICO...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH MODELS
PROJECTING PWAT OF 50-60MM TO POOL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

DURING THE DAY TODAY EXPECTING CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN TWO
ROUNDS...THE ONE EARLY THIS MORNING TO ACCOMPANY WAVE PASSAGE AND
ANOTHER THIS AFTERNOON AS ENHANCED BY DIURNAL HEATING. THE FIRST
IS TO GENERALLY FAVOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...WHILE THE LATTER IS
TO BECOME MORE LOCALIZED OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND AS
THE WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST. RAINFALL MAXIMA IS TO PEAK AT 2-4
INCHES. ON SATURDAY...IN A LONG FETCH SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...CONVECTION BUILDING ACROSS SAINT CROIX IS TO THEN ADVECT TO
EASTERN PUERTO RICO...TO SUSTAIN SCATTERED CONVECTION BETWEEN
CEIBA-PATILLA DURING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...WITH THE MOST
INTENSE TO CLUSTER ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO (BETWEEN DORADO AND RINCON). ACROSS SAINT CROIX TO
SOUTHEAST PR EXPECTING MAXIMA OF 1-3 INCHES...WHILE OVER NORTHWEST
PUERTO RICO MAXIMA WILL LIKELY EXCEED 3 INCHES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS IS TO THEN STEER A
TUTT/TUTT LOW ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER ON SUNDAY...WITH
VORTEX TO THEN TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN JUST SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. AT MID LEVELS THIS IS TO SUSTAIN A FAIRLY
STRONG VORTEX ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES/EASTERN PUERTO RICO EARLY ON
MONDAY. AS THE TUTT ENTERS THE BASIN...MODELS SHOW A MID/UPPER
CONVERGENT PATTERN ESTABLISHING DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...
FAVORING A SUBSIDENCE CAP AND RAPID DRYING OF THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS. THIS IS TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
VORTEX IS TO THEN FAVOR THE EROSION OF THE CAP INVERSION...WITH
MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY SURGE ON TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY FAVORING
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE VI/EASTERN PUERTO RICO.

VALVERDE...IMN (COSTA RICA)
MEDINA...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...WPC(USA) 

GALVEZ...WPC(USA) 
Quoting 2001. wunderkidcayman:

I'm becoming confused now

The only indicator that there is a circulation N of PR is the Radar and the satellite(somewhat)

Good amount of indicators suggest a circulation is S of PR such as vort maps sfc obs data satellite and radar(somewhat)

S one would be in more favoured conditions
N one would be in less favoured conditions

Today may be a day with confusion and headache and the day just started great...


I think the shear maps are off, there is no clear indication that shear is a negative factor at this time. There is no definable center of circulation, just that there are areas that are favorable for one to close up and I tend to favor the one with convection.
Quoting 1985. GetReal:


Which direction are the thunderstorms heading south of PR??? IMO the southern COC is located south of the western tip of PR.


CENTER IS N OF PR...
Quoting 2001. wunderkidcayman:

I'm becoming confused now

The only indicator that there is a circulation N of PR is the Radar and the satellite(somewhat)

Good amount of indicators suggest a circulation is S of PR such as vort maps sfc obs data satellite and radar(somewhat)

S one would be in more favoured conditions
N one would be in less favoured conditions

Today may be a day with confusion and headache and the day just started great...


No shame in being confused with 96-L...The NHC is confused, too..(See my post 1992)
2008. GetReal
Just checked the latest obs from San Juan, PR, on the north coast of PR, winds out of the north. Ponce PR, on the south coast of PR, wind out of the east... For what those obs are worth.
Quoting 1995. wunderweatherman123:

August 22 and 2 named storms. this season might bust even more than last season although the EPAC is behaving like an el nino even though we don't have one. when will the atlantic return back to the pre 2011 years? :(
We're not exactly sure.But something needs to happen in the pacific.We haven't had a el nino in 5 years.And although I can't be certain I think that's what causing the problem.There's no balance.
maybe a hurricane by the weekend
2011. GetReal
Ponce PR has the lower barometric pressure reading at 29.81 inches; San Juan pressure is 29.85 inches.
Quoting 2001. wunderkidcayman:

I'm becoming confused now

The only indicator that there is a circulation N of PR is the Radar and the satellite(somewhat)

Good amount of indicators suggest a circulation is S of PR such as vort maps sfc obs data satellite and radar(somewhat)

S one would be in more favoured conditions
N one would be in less favoured conditions

Today may be a day with confusion and headache and the day just started great...


Why would south be more favored conditions than north?
where is the center of invest 96L
2015. fmbill
I wonder if it would be more appropriate to look for the "wave axis" instead of a "LLC". While we see a couple of llc's, I assume there must be a single wave axis point. Right?
Base velocity PR radar loop shows the overall structure of circulation pretty nicely. South of PR rotation isn't even evident.
Quoting 2009. washingtonian115:

We're not exactly sure.But something needs to happen in the pacific.We haven't had a el nino in 5 years.And although I can't be certain I think that's what causing the problem.There's no balance.
last year the pacific was really bad too.... this year it's starting to flourish. could the atlantic start next season? that's really weird. I do feel el nino would do some wonders to all the tropics. lack of warm water has kinda thrown things off balance. notice the warmer waters in the subtropical atlantic. stealing all the energy from the MDR. there should be a greater emphasis on why the tropics especially the atlantic are screwed up
Windy but sunny here in Antigua. Did not get as much rain as anticipated but thankful anyway. Any predictions for the rest of August?
2019. GetReal
Quoting 2006. boandjoe:



CENTER IS N OF PR...



Check the surface obs being reported on PR.
2020. LargoFl
canadian see's the southern track below cuba and into the gulf it goes..outlier model..
Hmm I am now staring to see the center of circulation on N side is becoming distorted on radar the only thing that would suggest it now is the few rainbands maybe the N one may weaken off

Only time will tell
I know this may sound like a stupid question but gotta ask. With the storm over there off of Mexico it's a low can it influence Pre Cristobal to head more west? I just don't know how far it could feel the pull. What if the southern piece does detach from the northern piece, could the southern piece of this storm do anything? I see most models will be sending this OTS and we really don't have nothing to worry about.

sheri
2023. hydrus
The longer this remains weak, a bigger storm it should become..Would be nice to see strengthening to pull it north.

Hmmm... Weaker, farther south, and moving west. Does this mean the chances of it going out to sea are smaller? (despite almost all models showing that)
This "storm" blows.
2026. 900MB
Oy! I can't wait for this north vs south debate to be put to rest!
2027. 900MB
Oy! I can't wait for this north vs south debate to be put to rest!
Here is the upper level environment and the Tutt cell currently draped across Hispanola; a weak system interacting with the Tutt could hinder development with the infusion of some dry air.  A more organized system could benefit from some ventilation and t-storm enhancement.  It could go either way and really depends on how the system looks in another 24 IMHO:
 
2029. JRRP
wow windy day in Santo Domingo... nice !
2030. hydrus
Quoting 2018. islandgirls:

Windy but sunny here in Antigua. Did not get as much rain as anticipated but thankful anyway. Any predictions for the rest of August?
Huge wave is forecast to move off of Africa..I would bet that it forms with conditions improving in the Atlantic.
Quoting 2012. jrweatherman:


Why would south be more favored conditions than north?
Lower shear.
2032. LargoFl
2033. LargoFl
at least this run the gem doesnt go into south florida........................................... ............
Wow, we're in big trouble if this gets in the Gulf.
While the area over Hispanola is bone dry at the moment (as related to the Tutt cell), the wave is also bringing along plenty of moisture; it's a tough call either way in the short term:
Quoting jrweatherman:


Why would south be more favored conditions than north?

Lower shear
Warmer waters(TCHP)
Lower pressures
2037. hydrus
Quoting 2027. 900MB:

Oy! I can't wait for this north vs south debate to be put to rest!
This is what makes it all so interesting to me..The atmospheric puzzle to be figured out in the name of protecting life and property.
I'm not seeing a sign of a real circulation right now in 96L. A LLC could establish itself anywhere in this mess.

EDIT: Actually, upon a closer look and radar, the LLC looks like it's on the northern side of PR.

Quoting 2017. wunderweatherman123:

last year the pacific was really bad too.... this year it's starting to flourish. could the atlantic start next season? that's really weird. I do feel el nino would do some wonders to all the tropics. lack of warm water has kinda thrown things off balance. notice the warmer waters in the subtropical atlantic. stealing all the energy from the MDR. there should be a greater emphasis on why the tropics especially the atlantic are screwed up
The Indian ocean has been quite too.
Quoting 2023. hydrus:

The longer this remains weak, a bigger storm it should become..Would be nice to see strengthening to pull it north.


This thing refuses to get it's act together.The longer it takes the less likely it'll be picked up by the trough.I wouldn't hop on the OTS bandwagon just yet,because both the OTS and southern track are reasonable.It could be doing that on purpose XD.
Quoting 2011. GetReal:

Ponce PR has the lower barometric pressure reading at 29.81 inches; San Juan pressure is 29.85 inches.


My eyes and your obs say just slightly south. We'll see for sure in a bit when the plane goes in.
2041. LargoFl
Quoting 2024. opal92nwf:

Hmmm... Weaker, farther south, and moving west. Does this mean the chances of it going out to sea are smaller? (despite almost all models showing that)
until something actually forms...no model is correct..we have days watching this,trying to figure out track..I bet NHC is saying the same thing...hopefully they will have time to warn people so they can prepare early enough..this storm may surprise us all.
I am suspecting that Dr. Masters will give the system a poor chance of short-term organization with better times up ahead in the Bahamas.  Check back later.
2043. hydrus
Quoting 2035. weathermanwannabe:

While the area over Hispanola is bone dry at the moment (as related to the Tutt cell), the wave is also bringing along plenty of moisture; it's a tough call either way in the short term:

Yep..The Doc mentioned that in his last blog..Similar to berth, but larger, and a bit more in the way of moisture.
2044. LargoFl
Quoting 2037. hydrus:

This is what makes it all so interesting to me..The atmospheric puzzle to be figured out in the name of protecting life and property.
ditto hydrus...a guessing game
G'day

It's windy (and getting stronger by the minute) and rain coming down hard up here on the island this morning. I'll post the web cams again. Needless to see you can't see much of anything down below!

Link

Hope all is well with everyone

Lindy
Quoting 2033. LargoFl:

at least this run the gem doesnt go into south florida........................................... ............
Im so sorry about that.
another reason why the atlantic is screwed up... look at ALL THAT WARM WATER NORTH OF THE MDR. Pretty much no instability and moisture in the MDR. lack of warm water...... lack of instability.... leads to STABLE SINKING AIR. just like the last 2 seasons. pacific is doing much better this year due to all that warm water... Subtropics need to cool and MDR needs to warm up. When that happens, then the "former" atlantic seasons can return
it is such a broad circulation that i think that the center is actually in top of PR. Clouds in top of me are barely moving here in Carolina and in Arecibo big change from 2 hours ago.
Nice flareup with 96L on that northern area this morning. It's clear that is where the center wants to consolidate. My only question is how will it avoid being shredded by 40kts of shear with the ULAC weakening and getting displaced south. I'm starting to become more convinced that this will indeed pass safely out to sea. The Bahamas could still be in line for moderate impacts if it strengthens a little faster and goes farther west.

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Surface center due north western end of PR, exposed.

Loop

Yeah I see that spin but that is mid level cloud not low level
Low level going N-S where the little mid level turning is
Quoting 2048. HuracandelCaribe:

it is such a broad circulation that i think that the center is actually in top of PR. Clouds in top of me are barely moving here in Carolina and in Arecibo big change from 2 hours ago.



There is not even a breeze.
2052. hydrus
Quoting 2041. LargoFl:

until something actually forms...no model is correct..we have days watching this,trying to figure out track..I bet NHC is saying the same thing...hopefully they will have time to warn people so they can prepare early enough..this storm may surprise us all.
The voice of reason...May it saturate the blog, nixing misinformation and gibberish.
2053. zawxdsk
Quoting 2033. LargoFl:

at least this run the gem doesnt go into south florida........................................... ............


Oh, Canada! Your model's pretty bad...
Quoting 2013. hurricanes2018:

where is the center of invest 96L
After all the debates about this,you are late.Is evident the center is to the north of P.R.
2055. LargoFl
Convection starting to build on the S side of PR
2057. hydrus
Quoting 2050. wunderkidcayman:


Yeah I see that spin but that is mid level cloud not low level
Low level going N-S where the little mid level turning is
I will say one thing, this makes it into the Western Caribbean, you will have the right to say I told you so.. I stated already that South Texas to Maine needs to watch.

"This will be my last post until Monday. Hurricane expert Steve Gregory will be posting in my blog while I am gone the next three days."
2059. LargoFl
Radar and that satellite loop nrt posted does seem to indicate the northern section of 96L appears to be trying to become the dominate LLC. Still a disorganized mess, but the further north the LLC establishes itself the more likely it'll feel that trough. Recurve seems the most likely scenario at this time, but still a tricky forecast to say for sure. Maybe we'll get a hurricane out of the deal..?
Quoting 2039. washingtonian115:

The Indian ocean has been quite too. This thing refuses to get it's act together.The longer it takes the less likely it'll be picked up by the trough.I wouldn't hop on the OTS bandwagon just yet,because both the OTS and southern track are reasonable.It could be doing that on purpose XD.
another bust season would make people put some emphasis on why the atlantic has been out of whack. 96L is nothing more than some rain. watch it not even become a ts... I can't keep repeating myself but people should be questioning why the atlantic is full of plague
2062. hydrus
Quoting 2039. washingtonian115:

The Indian ocean has been quite too. This thing refuses to get it's act together.The longer it takes the less likely it'll be picked up by the trough.I wouldn't hop on the OTS bandwagon just yet,because both the OTS and southern track are reasonable.It could be doing that on purpose XD.
Talk about tricky...This is where old school meteorology pays off..No models, just old fashion obs and experience.
2063. GetReal


What happened to that spin north of PR.... Hmmmm
In my VHO it looks like two systems still trying to form one in the Carb. & one North of PR!
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1003 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...HOT TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

.HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND RESULTING IN A LENGTHY PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES. HEAT
INDICES GREATER THAN 108 DEGREES WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL OF
HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES.

FLZ007>017-026-027-108-112-114-115-127-230000-
/O.CON.KTAE.EH.W.0001.140822T1500Z-140823T0000Z/
/O.CON.KTAE.HT.Y.0006.140823T1500Z-140824T0000Z/
INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-
CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-SOUTH WALTON-COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-
COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL WAKULLA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...HUDSON...BONIFAY...
CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA...GRACEVILLE...
MALONE...SNEADS...YOUNGSTOWN...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHIT E CITY...
WEWAHITCHKA...QUINCY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSE E...
SPRING HILL...SWEETWATER...CRAWFORDVILLE...FREEPORT...
SANTA ROSA BEACH...PANAMA CITY...PARKER...PORT SAINT JOE...
APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...SOPCHOPPY...SAINT MARKS
1003 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014 /903 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM
CDT/ THIS EVENING...

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ TO
8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ SATURDAY...

* HIGH TEMPERATURES: 100 TO 103 DEGREES.

* MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX: 110 TO 114 DEGREES FRIDAY. 108 TO 112
DEGREES SATURDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING MEANS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR. THE COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A DANGEROUS
SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE LIKELY. DRINK PLENTY OF
FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED ROOM...STAY OUT OF THE SUN...
AND CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS.

A HEAT ADVISORY MEANS THAT A PERIOD OF HEAT INDICES BETWEEN
108 AND 112 DEGREES IS EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A SITUATION
IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE POSSIBLE. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...
STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED ROOM...AND STAY OUT OF THE SUN.

&&

$$


I'm heading into this today, yikes :/
2066. LargoFl
GFDL ensembles seem to be hinting at a brief bending back towards the west with 96L as it recurves, similar to the ECMWF scenario.

Quoting 2063. GetReal:



What happened to that spin north of PR.... Hmmmm
Yeah...hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm mmmm.
Quoting 2039. washingtonian115:

The Indian ocean has been quite too.


The Indian Ocean is normally quiet between July-September with the ongoing monsoon. Most activty there tends to happen between April-June and October-December.
Quoting 2063. GetReal:



What happened to that spin north of PR.... Hmmmm
96L has been spitting out LLC's left and right.
Levi kind of cleared this whole north/south thing up with a post earlier this morning. No real center, and two areas of vorticity, with the northern one still dominant. Indeed, you can now see some convection firing near that area...

As far as the surface obs showing east winds on PR and throughout the islands, if there is no closed circulation, that also makes sense.
AGENDA:
* Check and wait for 12z GFS to load
* Check and wait for 12z GEM to load.
* Wait for Recon
* Wait for NHC 2pm
* Wait for 18z spaghetti model runs come
My wishcast came true with a fishcast. Going fishing in the GOM Labor Day weekend. Looks like all will be well.
I could very easily see this storm splitting into to storms over the next 3 or 4 days if it continues to develop the way it currently is.

If it remains large and disorganized with two competing LLC, trough #1 could clip the northern circulation just enough to pull it due north, while the southern circulation continues to head WNW.
Quoting 2063. GetReal:



What happened to that spin north of PR.... Hmmmm

Nothing--it's still spinning, north of Puerto Rico.
2077. LargoFl
right back to its original strike zone.............................................. .....................
Quoting 2064. gulfbreeze:

In my VHO it looks like two systems still trying to form one in the Carb. & one North of PR!
That crazy
And on the flip side there is at least a 20% chance 96-L remains what it is...an open wave with some vorticity.
Quoting 2072. Climate175:
AGENDA:
* Check and wait for 12z GFS to load
* Check and wait for 12z GEM to load.
* Wait for Recon
* Wait for NHC 2pm
* Wait for 18z spaghetti model runs come


Then repeat tomorrow.
Quoting 2022. catastropheadjuster:

I know this may sound like a stupid question but gotta ask. With the storm over there off of Mexico it's a low can it influence Pre Cristobal to head more west? I just don't know how far it could feel the pull. What if the southern piece does detach from the northern piece, could the southern piece of this storm do anything? I see most models will be sending this OTS and we really don't have nothing to worry about.

sheri
Quoting 2080. Climate175:

It is coming soon.
Best comment of the year.
2084. fmbill
Quoting 2072. Climate175:

AGENDA:
* Check and wait for 12z GFS to load
* Check and wait for 12z GEM to load.
* Wait for Recon
* Wait for NHC 2pm
* Wait for 18z spaghetti model runs come

Then...discuss findings on blog. Followed by, "We need to wait for the next models to come out." LOL!!! I feel like I'm reliving Groundhog Day. :-)
Quoting 2080. Climate175:

It is coming soon.
Florida is the target.
EAST COAST got a storm to
Quoting 2076. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Nothing--it's still spinning, north of Puerto Rico.


Gotta love these weak systems passing over a radar. It's like a Rorschach test. Everyone sees what they wanna see.
We still need to wait for the 12Z runs but it's very clear this is going out to sea after affecting the SE Bahamas. The only chance this has is for it to continue to race west and get south of Andros island before developing, chances are very slim right now until the GFS and Euro change. Like i said about the HWRF, it's only good up to 60hrs...CMC is the least accurate model.
According to SFWDM hurricane model page, 96 should be starting to make its turn around 72W, some how I don't see that happening.
img src="">

Here's what I see right now. Vort stronger to the N of Puerto Rico although I can't tell if it's closed or not. There is also vort south but not as concentrated and it's not as defined in my opinion.
Quoting 2083. prcane4you:

Best comment of the year.
LOL.
Quoting 2077. LargoFl:

right back to its original strike zone.............................................. .....................

Oh great here we go again. Bad bad wave, invest, tropical thingy.
2093. hydrus
Quoting 2087. ParanoidAndroid:



Gotta love these weak systems passing over a radar. It's like a Rorschach test. Everyone sees what they wanna see.
Even the models are thinkin dammitt.
Quoting 2084. fmbill:


Then...discuss findings on blog. Followed by, "We need to wait for the next models to come out." LOL!!! I feel like I'm reliving Groundhog Day. :-)
Lol.
Quoting 2094. prcane4you:

Lol.
For some reason when you said Best Comment you had me rolling off the floor! Oh!.
2096. hydrus
Quoting 2088. scottsvb:

We still need to wait for the 12Z runs but it's very clear this is going out to sea after affecting the SE Bahamas. The only chance this has is for it to continue to race west and get south of Andros island before developing, chances are very slim right now until the GFS and Euro change. Like i said about the HWRF, it's only good up to 60hrs...CMC is the least accurate model.
I hope you are correct.
Quoting 2090. Saltydogbwi1:
img src="">

Here's what I see right now. Vort stronger to the N of Puerto Rico although I can't tell if it's closed or not. There is also vort south but not as concentrated and it's not as defined in my opinion.


I think we can tell from the radar, surface obs, etc that there's no closed circulation anywhere with 96L at the moment. That circulation closed a few times over the past few days and just keeps opening back up. Likely won't stay closed until it's near the Bahamas.
2098. 7544
you all know that maybe what we are seeing with these 2 spins could be two seperate storms comin into play one north and one south of pr and this is what has been making all these models going krazy and shifting all the time could that happen ? thanks
If the LLC is north of PR then this thing is more disorganized than I thought. The mid-level circulation is south of PR and more times than not the LLC will redevelop underneath the mid-level circulation not vice versa. Wouldn't be surprised if the LLC would develop south of PR but bottom line this thing is a mess
In my VHO it looks like two systems are trying to form on North oF PR & one in the Carb. south of PR.
2101. GetReal
Arecibo, PR on the NW coast of PR is reporting a rising barometer, 29.89 inches and easterly winds, the same at Isabella PR, confirming there is NO LLC north of PR.
Quoting 2092. fredric1979:


Oh great here we go again. Bad bad wave, invest, tropical thingy.
Don t be sad.Next year will be more invest,waves,sal,sinking air,dry air,sst,etc,etc.........
Quoting 2077. LargoFl:

right back to its original strike zone.............................................. .....................


Definitely do not need another Ivan-esque storm here in the panhandle! Although we are reaching that 10-year mark...

p.s. I have been watching this blog for years now, and finally decided to join the conversation. I have to hand it to you all (even if your opinions are polar opposite), I have learned a lot from yours and Dr. Masters commentary. So, thanks.
What time does the Hurricane Hunters take off?
Quoting FLPanhandler:


Definitely do not need another Ivan-esque storm here in the panhandle! Although we are reaching that 10-year mark...


Yea, if the CMC is the only one showing that, you can rest assured it's probably not going to happen.
12z NAM puts the center south of P.R. but it does a quick turn to the north once north of Hispaniola and OTS.
Quoting 2101. GetReal:

Arecibo, PR on the NW coast of PR is reporting a rising barometer, 29.89 inches and easterly winds, the same at Isabella PR, confirming there is NO LLC north of PR.
Google map for you.Arecibo is not in NW coast,is in the north coast.
Radar looks like circulation is starting to take over to the north all flowing into the northern part of the wave. This could end up being a huge circulation if it deepens!
Quoting hurricanewatcher61:
What time does the Hurricane Hunters take off?


I think its 12:30 Eastern Time
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:
img src="">

Here's what I see right now. Vort stronger to the N of Puerto Rico although I can't tell if it's closed or not. There is also vort south but not as concentrated and it's not as defined in my opinion.

Yeah buy the only thing that I don't see is the curve in SE on that N one there low level clouds just go SW

And another thing if it was so
We would be getting W or NW wind in NW PR which there is none that I can tell
2112. 7544
Quoting 2100. gulfbreeze:

In my VHO it looks like two systems are trying to form on North oF PR & one in the Carb. south of PR.


ha ha we post the same thing at the same time but im not the only one who thinks so thanks this could get more interesting if it does come into play .
Quoting 2082. catastropheadjuster:




I hardly ever ask questions, but I guess this was to stupid of a question for anyone to try to answer?
BTL

sheri
2114. fmbill
Quoting 2105. hurricanewatcher61:

What time does the Hurricane Hunters take off?

NOUS42 KNHC 211430
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT THU 21 AUGUST 2014
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z AUGUST 2014
TCPOD NUMBER.....14-082

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 77
A. 22/1730Z, 2330Z
B. AFXXX 0304A CYCLONE
C. 22/1630Z
D. 19.5N 66.5W
E. 22/1715Z TO 22/2330Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 75
A. 23/0530Z, 1130Z
B. AFXXX 0404A CYCLONE
C. 23/0400Z
D. 21.0N 70.0W
E. 23/0515Z TO 23/1130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
2115. will40
Quoting hurricanewatcher61:
What time does the Hurricane Hunters take off?





FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 76
A. 22/0530Z, 1130Z
B. AFXXX 0204A CYCLONE
C. 22/0415Z
D. 16.5N 61.5W
E. 22/0515Z TO 22/1130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
While the emphasis is on what may turn out to be Cristobal, my focus is on what is to exist the African coast. very strong wave with good 850mb vorticity which could be the player down the road, bringing an end to the glut of major hurricanes emanating from the MDR
Quoting 2109. forecaster1:

Radar looks like circulation is starting to take over to the north all flowing into the northern part of the wave. This could end up being a huge circulation if it deepens!


I think we're seeing genesis now...I don't think you're going to see western winds out of PR because it's already past there. I CAN'T HELP BUT TO WATCH THE MADNESS!

Poll: 96L is

A: As inconsistent as a NFL referee
B: Should be named Cristobawl for all the problems it has caused
C: Should be named Crystal Ball for all of those that is has broken
D: Should be renamed STORM TOP

Quoting fmbill:

NOUS42 KNHC 211430
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT THU 21 AUGUST 2014
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z AUGUST 2014
TCPOD NUMBER.....14-082

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 77
A. 22/1730Z, 2330Z
B. AFXXX 0304A CYCLONE
C. 22/1630Z
D. 19.5N 66.5W
E. 22/1715Z TO 22/2330Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 75
A. 23/0530Z, 1130Z
B. AFXXX 0404A CYCLONE
C. 23/0400Z
D. 21.0N 70.0W
E. 23/0515Z TO 23/1130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.


1730z is 12:30 pm Eastern Time
We NEED the rain.... But it might put a damper on my Lobster consumption tomorrow.....


Quoting 2110. Sfloridacat5:



I think its 12:30 Eastern Time
Did you called the pilot?
The "spinning" feature on radar is 7,500 feet in the air... Far from the surface to say that there's a definitive LLC anywhere, still just looks like a giant circulation with smaller vorticies inside the larger one.
2122. hydrus
2123. hydrus
Quoting 2121. weatherh98:

The "spinning" feature on radar is 7,500 feet in the air... Far from the surface to say that there's a definitive LLC anywhere, still just looks like a giant circulation with smaller vorticies inside the larger one.
Yep.
Quoting 2116. stoormfury:

While the emphasis is on what may turn out to be Cristobal, my focus is on what is to exist the African coast. very strong wave with good 850mb vorticity which could be the player down the road, bringing an end to the glut of major hurricanes emanating from the MDR

NOUS42 KNHC 211430
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT THU 21 AUGUST 2014
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z AUGUST 2014
TCPOD NUMBER.....14-082

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 77
A. 22/1730Z, 2330Z
B. AFXXX 0304A CYCLONE
C. 22/1630Z
D. 19.5N 66.5W
E. 22/1715Z TO 22/2330Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 75
A. 23/0530Z, 1130Z
B. AFXXX 0404A CYCLONE
C. 23/0400Z
D. 21.0N 70.0W
E. 23/0515Z TO 23/1130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS
Quoting 2122. hydrus:


Wow...that s scary.
Also, if there was decent rotation, radar would show it in the velocity map, and there is nothing.
I'm probably the only person placing the small, ill-defined center of 96L (if there is one) just east of Puerto Rico, but there are observations out there that may perhaps support something being there. Stronger flow out of the SE east of the area and the coast of Puerto Rico may help to spin up a few things too.


Click to expand.
Quoting 2023. hydrus:

The longer this remains weak, a bigger storm it should become..Would be nice to see strengthening to pull it north.


I see this storm developing and possibly following a path similar to Hurricane Sandy a few years back! Maybe not as north as NY, but maybe DC area. I see it redirecting west. It seems to be generating (and keeping) its own moisture ahead of its COC, which may help it later. Don't let your guard down on this one, it just may get its act together soon. I have seen a trend in past years that storms that are disorganized in the early stages in its life, become stronger and more organized later, and vice versa, storms that seem organized in the beginning become disorganized later. Not all storms follow that though.
Quoting Waltanater:
I see this storm developing and possibly following a path similar to Hurricane Sandy a few years back! Maybe not as north as NY, but maybe DC area. I see it redirecting west. It seems to be generating (and keeping) its own moisture ahead of its COC, which may help it later. Don't let your guard down on this one, it just may get its act together soon. I have seen a trend in past years that storms that are disorganized in the early stages in its life, become stronger and more organized later, and vice versa, storms that seem organized in the beginning become disorganized later. Not all storms follow that though.
Could this storm be like Isaac? anyway I think we will have Cristobal today or tomorrow. I looks pretty good with the southern vorticity, and I think this storm will go into the Gulf portrayed by the CMC.
Huh hmm yeah

2133. fmbill
Quoting 2118. Sfloridacat5:



1730z is 12:30 pm Eastern Time

Well...actually, 17:30z is 1:30pm. The plane will be enroute at 16:30z, which is 12:30pm.
Quoting 1970. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Tropical Storm Marie is continuing to quickly intensify this morning. In addition to sporting numerous spiral bands, a central dense overcast has formed over the center and outflow is expanding in all directions.

It should become a hurricane tonight and begin a period of rapid intensification given exceptionally low wind shear, very warm sea surface temperatures, increasing ocean heat content, and plenty of mid-level moisture.

I'm forecasting a 150 mph Category 4 hurricane, give or take 10 mph.


I give this an 80% of becoming the first cat 5 in the Epac.
Kind of see an open/exposed center trying to wrap up just NE of Arecibo... BUT... may also see one trying to close up SSE of Ponce. North center looks like it has more convection and some banding... I don't think this thing will pull together before reaching Hispaniola anyway... and I don't think this southern vort would survive the trip across that island. So the north center should win out either way. Good times
Marie basically has everything going for it that any tropical cyclone in the Atlantic hasn't since 2010. Decent chance at the first EPAC Category 5 since 2010.
2137. hydrus
Quoting 2132. wunderkidcayman:

Huh hmm yeah


The wave exiting Africa will be a monstah.
2139. LargoFl
Tropical Weather Outlook Text
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a small area of low
pressure located north of the Virgin Islands remains disorganized.
Interaction of this system with Hispaniola could limit development
through tonight. However, environmental conditions are expected to
be more conducive for development when the disturbance moves near or
over the southeastern Bahamas on Saturday, and a tropical depression
or tropical storm is likely to form over the weekend or by early
next week. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and
heavy rainfall are expected across portions of the Leeward Islands,
Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands today, and over Hispaniola and
the southeastern Bahamas tonight and Saturday. Interests in those
islands should monitor the progress of this disturbance. An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
this system this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Brennan

2140. GetReal
2141. sflmike
Latest NAM run says OTS for 96L.
2142. LargoFl
my guess is we wont know anything till monday,so 3 days more of guessing.
Quoting 2113. catastropheadjuster:


I hardly ever ask questions, but I guess this was to stupid of a question for anyone to try to answer?
BTL

sheri
It was not a stupid question and if I could answer I would. This is oneof the downsides I have found on WU. You ask a question and have to beg for an answer.
Quoting fmbill:

Well...actually, 17:30z is 1:30pm. The plane will be enroute at 16:30z, which is 12:30pm.



Isn't it currently Eastern Standard Time now?

Or are we in EDT?
It summer so I guess we are in EDT and you're right it will be 1:30 pm
Does anyone else notice this mess of a storm moving W/WNW and how long will this last?
Next satellite image at 1445utc is going to show that the LLC is going to start to close off at the low levels, look at the low level cloud deck and cu field, its turning from east to southwest on the western side of the circulation in the convection north of San Juan, PR. This is starting to come together and by the time the HHs fly into 96L they will find a tropical storm with westerly winds just north of PR. It will be a small circulation at first before growing in size. Also future track of the developing system could be Sandy esque, just not the complete WNW turn. In my opinion.
It looks the Northern Rockies could get the first flurries of the season this Sunday.
2148. LargoFl
Quoting 2104. FLPanhandler:



Definitely do not need another Ivan-esque storm here in the panhandle! Although we are reaching that 10-year mark...

p.s. I have been watching this blog for years now, and finally decided to join the conversation. I have to hand it to you all (even if your opinions are polar opposite), I have learned a lot from yours and Dr. Masters commentary. So, thanks.
glad you joined in
Kind of Reminds me of Fay, a very vigorous wave that just couldn't close the low. Fay actually was named over Hispaniola because that when it finally became a closed low.
and IF the CMC is right this would be the first major in the gulf since Gustav in 2008 wouldn't it?
2150. 7544
im gona say it this will be a td or ts before the plane goes in latter imo looks like it now
Quoting 2144. Sfloridacat5:


I believe we are in EST not EDT which would make it 12:30 pm.

Isn't it currently Eastern Standard Time now?
No. He is correct. 1730 is 12:30 EST or 1:30 EDT
Quoting hydrus:
The wave exiting Africa will be a monstah.

Hmm what? Sorry I was talking about 96L
2153. fmbill
Quoting 2144. Sfloridacat5:



I believe we are in EST not EDT which would make it 12:30 pm.

Isn't it currently Eastern Standard Time now?

We are in EDT now. I know...it doesn't seem to make sense that we are in "daylight savings time" during the time of year when the days are their longest. :-p
17:30 is 1:30 EDT. Eventually I'll get it right.
2155. LargoFl
So Marie is looking well this morning.


LLC is SSW of PR south of the mona passage. There is the trough axis north to just nw of PR with a midlevel circulation. The LLC is forecasted to die out tonight while a new LLC is forecasted to develop Saturday on the n side of Hispaniola.
Quoting 2144. Sfloridacat5:



I believe we are in EST not EDT which would make it 12:30 pm.

Isn't it currently Eastern Standard Time now?


No we are in EDT, EST is during the winter time.
2160. LargoFl
With still no solid development, the center relocation idea is one to watch for this morning as it would likely invalidate most of the model runs, although the GFS may have hinted at this. This is one of several reasons why models are only perhaps good in the short term for systems that have not yet developed. Especially in cases where a dominant center cannot be maintained.
2161. sar2401
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


I hardly ever ask questions, but I guess this was to stupid of a question for anyone to try to answer?
BTL

sheri
Sheri, I've been reading back trying to catch up on this hot mess. I just noticed your question. I think the blog is moving so fast that posts scroll off quickly and get lost. The storms in the Pacific are much too far away to influence 96L in its present location. A strong trough to its north is what's likely to ultimately move (most) of it north. There's also a chance a piece of vorticity could be left behind and move further west, but it would have to get into the western Caribbean or BOC to feel the storms in the Pacific.
Quoting 2156. TimSoCal:

So Marie is looking well this morning.





Please refrain from posting pacific tropical activity, we have a major tropical system about to create havoc in the Atlantic :)
2163. ricderr
Jim Cantore ‏@JimCantore 18h
At this point given what we know about 96L, confidence increasing on it being less likely a Gulf of Mexico threat: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/96L_tracks_late st.png




props to levi
Quoting 2160. LargoFl:

With still no solid development, the center relocation idea is one to watch for this morning as it would likely invalidate most of the model runs, although the GFS may have hinted at this. This is one of several reasons why models are only perhaps good in the short term for systems that have not yet developed. Especially in cases where a dominant center cannot be maintained.



If anything the newly developing center will be north of the islands, not over the Caribbean Sea.
Quoting 2137. hydrus:

The wave exiting Africa will be a monstah.
It's got these things going for it..

The GFS has been excellent in the 48hr timeframe
Quoting 2022. catastropheadjuster:

I know this may sound like a stupid question but gotta ask. With the storm over there off of Mexico it's a low can it influence Pre Cristobal to head more west? I just don't know how far it could feel the pull. What if the southern piece does detach from the northern piece, could the southern piece of this storm do anything? I see most models will be sending this OTS and we really don't have nothing to worry about.

sheri

The storm in the eastern Pacific is way too far away to have any influence on 96L. There will not be any detachment of a southern piece of energy. The whole disturbance should eventually consolidate into one focused system as it approaches the Bahamas.
2169. GetReal
Quoting 2145. NativeSun:

Does anyone else notice this mess of a storm moving W/WNW and how long will this last?



It will last until we get a stronger and better organized system.... TS status.
Ok, I am going to throw out an idea of sorts.
Instead of all this assuming of if its north or if its south, how about go to the NHC page and get your answer.
Wow, See what the experts say. Horrible Idea lol
12z NAM takes 96L way OTS.

2172. ricderr
it's a tropical fest in the pacific....three named storms churning the sea


2173. ricderr
Tropical Storm MARIE Public Advisory

Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 221431
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...MARIE STRENGTHENING STEADILY AS IT MOVES PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 102.5W
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.5 WEST. MARIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND THIS
DIRECTION OF MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND MARIE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY EARLY
SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MARIE SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND...AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY
SUNDAY OR MONDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
WOW S THOMAS WINDS FROM SE @ 27MPH GUSTING 33MPH AND IN FAJARDO PR ENE @ 13MPH GUSTING 18MPH
Quoting 2166. washingtonian115:

It's got these things going for it..


Yep.
Quoting 2172. ricderr:

it's a tropical fest in the pacific....three named storms churning the sea





Nothing of interest here
2177. LargoFl
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1037 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-042>045- 047>052-222200-
/O.CON.KCHS.HT.Y.0004.140822T1600Z-140822T2200Z/
JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL -EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-
INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-INLAND BERKELEY-
INLAND JASPER-BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
TIDAL BERKELEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MILLEN...SYLVANIA...METTER...
STATESBORO...SPRINGFIELD...REIDSVILLE...CLAXTON... PEMBROKE...
FORT MCALLISTER...SAVANNAH...TYBEE ISLAND...LUDOWICI...
HINESVILLE...HALFMOON LANDING...TOWNSEND...DARIEN...ALLENDALE...
HAMPTON...WALTERBORO...ST. GEORGE...SUMMERVILLE...MONCKS CORNER...
RIDGELAND...BEAUFORT...HILTON HEAD...EDISTO BEACH...CHARLESTON...
JASPER...DANIEL ISLAND...NAVAL WEAPONS STATION CHARLESTON
1037 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...ALL OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...UP TO 110 DEGREES DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 95 TO 100 DEGREES AND MODERATE
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

* IMPACTS...HEAT AND HUMIDITY COULD LEAD TO HEAT ILLNESSES IF
PROPER PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU MUST BE OUTDOORS...DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...WEAR LIGHT
WEIGHT CLOTHING AND STAY OUT OF THE DIRECT SUN. IN ADDITION...
KNOW THE SIGNS OF HEAT ILLNESSES AND BE SURE TO CHECK ON THOSE
WHO ARE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE HEAT SUCH AS YOUNG CHILDREN AND
THE ELDERLY. NEVER LEAVE CHILDREN AND PETS IN A VEHICLE...
ESPECIALLY WITH THE WINDOWS ROLLED UP SINCE TEMPERATURES CAN BE
MUCH HIGHER INSIDE THE VEHICLE.

TO REDUCE RISK DURING OUTDOOR WORK...THE OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND
HEALTH ADMINISTRATION RECOMMENDS SCHEDULING FREQUENT REST BREAKS
IN SHADED OR AIR CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENTS. ANYONE OVERCOME BY
HEAT SHOULD BE MOVED TO A COOL AND SHADED LOCATION. HEAT STROKE
IS AN EMERGENCY - CALL 9 1 1.

&&
2178. MahFL
Quoting 2154. Sfloridacat5:

Then I was right. 17:30 is 12:30 EDT.


No 17:30z is 1:30 pm EDT. Zulu time is one hour behind BST ( British Summer Time ).

Link
2179. Patrap
In Portlight news today,


Paul Timmons, AKA "Presslord" and Holly Colsher of Portlight with Richard Reed, Senior Vice President Disaster Cycle Services American Red Cross @ the National Council on Independent Living Conference in D.C. last month celebrating agreements signed between the two organizations to closely collaborate in serving the needs of people with disabilities.




Pin presented to Portlight by Richard Reed Senior Vice President Disaster Cycle Services American Red Cross commemorating the close working relationship between the two organizations.

I don't foresee Recon finding a TD. This is a disorganized mess of a disturbance. Vorticity exists and that is obvious but there is no dominant LLC and staring at visible imagery won't help you find one. The key to this entire system is not if the LLC is to the north or south of PR it is how the system will react with Hispanola. If it gets held up it could miss trough completely and continue going west. Everyone should still be watching this system
Regardless of a center now, energy is definitely focused on the north side of Puerto Rico
Quoting 2166. washingtonian115:

It's got these things going for it..



that region hasn't been that moist in ages. Very low shear too.
cULEBRA GUSTING UP TO 37MPH FROM S
2184. Patrap
To easily see your Local UTC time, jus pull up a wu radar from your locale as it is displayed there all the time
2185. JRRP

21.061 N 64.966 W
2186. ncstorm
Jim Cantore ‏@JimCantore 14m

96L hauling north of PR this morning. Should slow, develop &turn more northerly after 48hrs: http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID= JUA … http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/96L_track s_latest.png …
2187. MahFL
Quoting 2184. Patrap:

To easily see your Local UTC time, jus pull up a wu radar from your locale as it is displayed there all the time


And your local time is too. 11:11 EDT, 15:11 UTC (z).
UTC and z are the same.
Quoting weatherh98:
Regardless of a center now, energy is definitely focused on the north side of Puerto Rico

Umm actually vort from 925mbs to 500mbs is on the S side new IR images showing convection now dissipating or at the ver lest weakening on the N side while still building on S side with also a new flare up just on PR E coast

Energy not on the N side
iN SW PR THE WINDS JUST CHANGED FROM SW IN PONCE ALSO BUT IN ARECIBO NO WIND AND IN MANATI AND SAN JUAN FROM THE EAST EAST SOUTH EAST
2190. ncstorm
David Bernard ‏@DavidBernardTV 5m

Lots of #96L theories. No storm yet and many possibilities. No way anyone on East Coast can write this off.
2191. Patrap
Quoting 2187. MahFL:



And your local time is too. 11:11 EDT, 15:11 UTC (z).
UTC and z are the same.


Yup,...Being former USMC Air Wing, its all easy fer mees.

: P
2192. 7544
its still moving west at this hour and the ull that was to the north of it is gone .
you can clearly see the LLC SW of PR and 100 miles S of the Mona passage
Quoting 2182. Huracan94:


that region hasn't been that moist in ages. Very low shear too.
Yeah tell me about it!.I had to rub my eyes and check the date closely.At first I thought this map was from September 2010.lol.I wonder why the models haven't developed this wave.Probably malfunctioning from all the 96L confusion haha.
Quoting 2171. Sfloridacat5:

12z NAM takes 96L way OTS.



which means it probably wont happen lol
2196. JRRP
2197. hydrus
Quoting 2179. Patrap:

In Portlight news today,


Paul Timmons, AKA "Presslord" and Holly Colsher of Portlight with Richard Reed, Senior Vice President Disaster Cycle Services American Red Cross @ the National Council on Independent Living Conference in D.C. last month celebrating agreements signed between the two organizations to closely collaborate in serving the needs of people with disabilities.




Pin presented to Portlight by Richard Reed Senior Vice President Disaster Cycle Services American Red Cross commemorating the close working relationship between the two organizations.


Very cool...Press is showing a bit more skin top side the days..:)
vort maps are got to be lagging action is north of puerto rico
2199. Patrap
Quoting 2197. hydrus:

Very cool...Press is showing a bit more skin top side the days..:)


We should send Him a Skipper's hat maybe?
Quoting HuracandelCaribe:
iN SW PR THE WINDS JUST CHANGED FROM SW IN PONCE ALSO BUT IN ARECIBO NO WIND AND IN MANATI AND SAN JUAN FROM THE EAST EAST SOUTH EAST

Changed from SW or to SW
2202. Grothar
Quoting 2188. wunderkidcayman:


Umm actually vort from 925mbs to 500mbs is on the S side new IR images showing convection now dissipating or at the ver lest weakening on the N side while still building on S side with also a new flare up just on PR E coast

Energy not on the N side


I didn't know convection was dissipating on the north side.. (Sarcasm)Looks like big burst of convection right over pr though.
Quoting 2188. wunderkidcayman:


Umm actually vort from 925mbs to 500mbs is on the S side new IR images showing convection now dissipating or at the ver lest weakening on the N side while still building on S side with also a new flare up just on PR E coast

Energy not on the N side


Closest thing to a llc is on the N side of PR. Same vort from yesterday, but the S and SW side are very weak at best.

LLC 17.2N 68W
12 GFS has begun to run.
6 hours.
96L can't make up it's confused *** mind.lol.
2210. Grothar
Sometimes our eyes deceive us. At this point, I do not believe any one model can possibly even show a trend, let alone a close track. This is one of the most difficult systems I have seen in a long time.

Recon will be in the storm in 2 hours. In the meantime, it continues to appear that the closest thing to a low-level circulation is located just north of northwestern Puerto Rico.
2212. GetReal

Quoting 2207. nrtiwlnvragn:




JUST AS I SAID... The center is right over central PR
2214. Grothar
Just the current GFSL solution.

2215. BVI
For the last hour or so we have been having torrential rains here in the British Virgin Islands, this was after modest rains all night. We are under a flash flood warning.
I still think 96L is going to split into two systems.

There is a lot of disconnect between the North circulation and the south circulation due to the storms rather massive size.

This will make it hard for the system to ultimately consolidate and converge around the stronger northern circulation.

I can see the irst trough coming through and JUST pulling the northern circulation northwhile the southern chunk of the storm stays south and moves westerly.
Ponce has the lowest SLP at 29.81 and the winds were east and the last ob is south...Lowest pressure is south of Puerto Rico
24 hrs.
Quoting 2156. TimSoCal:

So Marie is looking well this morning.



More than well. She is healthy, she is beautiful and she will be a monster.
2220. 7544
if this thing gets closer west to andros island u know se fl will be feeling the small effects look at the size its starting to form from all around it .
I see that some models show take it as it was going OTS then recurve it to the west.
How would that exactly work out?
Quoting 2216. RyanSperrey:

I still think 96L is going to split into two systems.

There is a lot of disconnect between the North circulation and the south circulation due to the storms rather massive size.

This will make it hard for the system to ultimately consolidate and converge around the stronger northern circulation.

I can see the first trough coming through and JUST pulling the northern circulation northwhile the southern chunk of the storm stays south and moves westerly.
45kt in South east of PR from the SE
meant to edit not quote /facepalm
Quoting 2175. Climate175:

Yep.
Why models are not developing this one? It looks to be in a moist environment with low shear.



Morning folks, impossible to see or try and guess a true center on satellite have to wait for HH to get in there, looks west for now, but what if this high closes off? hmmmmm
Quoting 2214. Grothar:

Just the current GFSL solution.


Hey Gro cut that out!.Sandy left a bad taste in everyone's mouth from Cuba to Maine.
If Recon finds a closed circulation in the convection north of western PR, I believe we have a TS.


Quoting scottsvb:
you can clearly see the LLC SW of PR and 100 miles S of the Mona passage

New vort maps are out Vort still S of PR at 850,700 and 500 with vort Max SSW of PR rather than S
2231. JRRP
19.3n
67.0w


Link
Quoting 2210. Grothar:

Sometimes our eyes deceive us. At this point, I do not believe anyone model can possibly even show a trend, let alone a close track. This is one of the most difficult systems I have seen in a long time.


More than Debby? :] I remember that WU was in a battle zone half with the Euro and the other half with the Gfs. I was with the Gfs because as it is my favorite model I was a little bias.
2233. ncstorm
I dont like comparing developing storms to previous storms as no two storms are alike but this is quite eerie..



2234. SLU
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
36 hrs, entering Bahamas.
Coastal ASCAT Link


12z GFS 24hrs



00z 36hrs

I have to drive home from work on Wednesday in Palm Bay. Can anyone tell me if my 3 mile trip will be feasible yet or do we not know??
Hispaniola is going to finish her off. walk towards the light 96L... be free
2241. GetReal
Quoting 2221. Articuno:

I see that some models show take it as it was going OTS then recurve it to the west.
How would that exactly work out?



Like Ophelia 2005.
2243. sar2401
Quoting Grothar:
Sometimes our eyes deceive us. At this point, I do not believe anyone model can possibly even show a trend, let alone a close track. This is one of the most difficult systems I have seen in a long time.

I've been paying more attention to COAMPS since you've been posting these models and, so far, I've been pretty impressed. It's the new kid on the block but it's been doing a good job on track. As you say, it's extremely difficult to get a good track with this system but the COAMPS track looks very reasonable. Unfortunately, that graphic is 15 hours old, so the low is further north than shown, but I suspect the ultimate track will be about right.
12Z GFS 60hrs



00z GFS 72hrs

2246. SLU
Quoting 2194. washingtonian115:

Yeah tell me about it!.I had to rub my eyes and check the date closely.At first I thought this map was from September 2010.lol.I wonder why the models haven't developed this wave.Probably malfunctioning from all the 96L confusion haha.


It could also run into a CCKW by 40W.

2247. Dakster
That was awesome for Portlight and Paul!!!

Congrats!