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Dry Air Dominates the Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:57 PM GMT on August 15, 2014

There are two tropical waves in the Eastern Atlantic worth mentioning today--one right at the coast of Africa, and another about 700 miles to its west, a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Both of these waves are headed west-northwest towards much drier air, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming five days--though the wave farther from the coast of Africa has the UKMET model and a few members of the GFS and European model ensembles showing some weak development. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance near the coast of Africa 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 0% and 20%, respectively. Dry air dominates the tropical Atlantic, and it will be difficult for a tropical storm to form in the coming week.


Figure 1. The satellite-based Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis for 8 am EDT Friday, August 15, 2014, showed two tropical waves off the coast of Africa that were headed west-northwest towards very dry air. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS/NOAA Hurricane Research Division.

Tropical Storm Karina not threatening Hawaii
Tropical Storm Karina, which formed in the waters south of Mexico's Baja Peninsula on Wednesday, intensified into a hurricane for 12 hours on Thursday, but is now back down to tropical storm strength. None of the computer models are currently predicting the Karina will affect Hawaii, as the storm is expected to become entangled early next week with tropical disturbance 94C, which lies 1100 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii. This tropical disturbance could also become a tropical storm this weekend; in their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center gave 94C 2-day odds of development of 60%. Tropical Storm Julio, located about 770 miles north of Honolulu, Hawaii, is steadily disintegrating in the face of high wind shear, and should be dead by Saturday morning. Karina's intensification in a hurricane on Thursday gives the Eastern Pacific 11 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricane so far this season, which is well above average. In a typical Eastern Pacific hurricane season, there should have been 7 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 1 intense hurricane by August 14.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Well seems like NHC agrees with me 50/50%
NHC says that 95L only got 24hrs to make something of itself after that bad environmental conditions should take its toll
TD maybe boarder TD/TS at most
Quoting 501. wunderkidcayman:

Well seems like NHC agrees with me 50/50%
NHC says that 95L only got 24hrs to make something of itself after that bad environmental conditions should take its toll
TD maybe boarder TD/TS at most


Did they call you before making the update? Can never be too sure.
Quoting 500. Webberweather53:



Nah, believe it or not, I'm actually an amateur like most of you here, I just "specialize" when it comes to Equatorial Waves & tropical phenomena, similar to scientists like Mike Ventrice, Carl Schreck, & Paul Roundy. However, tomorrow is move in day for me @ NC State, so technically I will be a freshman in college pursuing a meteorology degree, (maybe a PhD)

Hopefully I'll be there in two years.
504. FOREX
Quoting 501. wunderkidcayman:

Well seems like NHC agrees with me 50/50%
NHC says that 95L only got 24hrs to make something of itself after that bad environmental conditions should take its toll
TD maybe boarder TD/TS at most

I wish steering currents would eventually turn it due West.
Quoting 495. SLU:



Are you a qualified met or just an amateur like most of us here?

Nah, I am actually an amateur like all of you, however I just tend to "specialize" in phenomena pertaining to Equatorial Waves, I'm nowhere near as well acquainted w/ winter storms, severe wx, etc. (if that means anything.) I am essentially following in the footsteps of scientists like Mike Ventrice, Paul Roundy, & Carl Schreck (Mike Ventrice has become a nice friend/mentor for me on twitter & I hope to get a chance to meet him sometime. Technically, w/ move-in day being tomorrow, I will be a college freshman pursuing a degree in meteorology from NC State University, hoping to get a PhD one day. I really only started getting serious about meteorology in 2009 (i.e. removing myself from relying upon the TWC) thanks to category 4 hurricane Bill....
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Well seems like NHC agrees with me 50/50%
NHC says that 95L only got 24hrs to make something of itself after that bad environmental conditions should take its toll
TD maybe boarder TD/TS at most


Agrees with you? Give me a break.
508. SLU
Quoting 500. Webberweather53:



Nah, believe it or not, I'm actually an amateur like most of you here, I just "specialize" when it comes to Equatorial Waves & tropical phenomena, similar to scientists like Mike Ventrice, Carl Schreck, & Paul Roundy. However, tomorrow is move in day for me @ NC State, so technically I will be a freshman in college pursuing a meteorology degree, (maybe a PhD)


Great stuff man. Keep us informed about those phenomena. They seem to be more precise indicators than the heavily relied on MJO signal which doesn't seem to be doing much for the Atlantic now even though it's in the enhanced phase.
Quoting 503. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Hopefully I'll be there in two years.


I thought you were an incoming senior?
AOI near 35W doing well tonight it just might become Invest soon
511. SLU
Quoting 505. Webberweather53:


Nah, I am actually an amateur like all of you, however I just tend to "specialize" in phenomena pertaining to Equatorial Waves, I'm nowhere near as well acquainted w/ winter storms, severe wx, etc. (if that means anything.) I am essentially following in the footsteps of scientists like Mike Ventrice, Paul Roundy, & Carl Schreck (Mike Ventrice has become a nice friend/mentor for me on twitter & I hope to get a chance to meet him sometime. Technically, w/ move-in day being tomorrow, I will be a college freshman pursuing a degree in meteorology from NC State University, hoping to get a PhD one day. I really only started getting serious about meteorology in 2009 (i.e. removing myself from relying upon the TWC) thanks to category 4 hurricane Bill....



You missed the action packed 04, 05, 07 and 08 seasons on the blog. ;)
95L is already technically a TD. Or at least as close to one and not be classified as it can be. WKC, Drak, and Hurricane Andre were all over this earlier today. Hurricane Andre called this an invest well before it was classified, and while his comments are often hidden, he was ahead of the game on this one. While this may be classified for but a day's time, shows the unexpected often catches even the NHC off guard. Welcome Webberweather! You provide great info, and join a small class here who really know their stuff. Babbitt, TA, Kori, Drak, and of coarse Levi. And a handful of others. ncstorm, your humor is on point tonight. We are a manic bunch, but for a blog, we do really get along well. Gro the wise grandfather, Sar the annoying uncle you bring all your questions to, TA the youngster who knows more than he should, and ncstorm and washi who are the pithy women who don't conform to the norms. And so many more unique bloggers who make WU what it is.
Quoting Drakoen:


Did they call you before making the update? Can never be too sure.

Hmm maybe

Berg

Anyway
95L maybe a TD for 24hrs then go bye bye
Quoting 501. wunderkidcayman:

Well seems like NHC agrees with me 50/50%
NHC says that 95L only got 24hrs to make something of itself after that bad environmental conditions should take its toll
TD maybe boarder TD/TS at most


when did you say this?
Quoting 503. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Hopefully I'll be there in two years.


Move in day for me is next Thursday at Millersville. :)
Quoting 495. SLU:



Are you a qualified met or just an amateur like most of us here?


I'm still in the process of completing my own personal research project comparing Atlantic & Eastern Pacific TC activity in the VPM MJO index created thanks in part to Mike Ventrice vs RMM. The raw RMM data looks noisy, IMO, especially w/ the reduction of ACE over MJO phase 3, this is probably due to the Indian Monsoon forcing the ITCZ so far north that it creates a "boomerang" like effect over the Indian Ocean, essentially causing the RMM Principal Component indices, esp. OLR to incorrectly skip this MJO phase. The VPM index was supposed to correct this error & through Velocity Potential instead of OLR, allows the index to more accurately depict MJO pulses over the climatologically dry western hemisphere, where SST are usually not nearly as sufficient compared to the western Pacific & Indian Ocean warm pool regions to support convection, thus projection onto the OLR component of RMM MJO index over the western hemisphere is "handicapped" by this natural bias...
Quoting DeepSeaRising:
95L is already technically a TD. Or at least as close to one and not be classified as it can be. WKC, Drak, and Hurricane Andre were all over this earlier today. Hurricane Andre called this an invest well before it was classified, and while his comments are often hidden, he was ahead of the game on this one. While this may be classified for but a day's time, shows the unexpected often catches even the NHC off guard. Welcome Webberweather! You provide great info, and join a small class here who really know their stuff. Babbitt, TA, Kori, Drak, and of coarse Levi. And a handful of others. ncstorm, your humor is on point tonight. We are a manic bunch, but for a blog, we do really get along well. Gro the wise grandfather, Sar the annoying uncle you bring all your questions to, TA the youngster who knows more than he should, and ncstorm and washi who are the pithy women who don't conform to the norms. And so many more unique bloggers who make WU what it is.

Yep that pretty much sums up WU
All the little kids growing up, its so cute
Oh well we'll have to wait til 5am.
Quoting 501. wunderkidcayman:

Well seems like NHC agrees with me 50/50%
NHC says that 95L only got 24hrs to make something of itself after that bad environmental conditions should take its toll
TD maybe boarder TD/TS at most


WKC is an enthusiastic blogger, but sometimes humility gets the best of him. If I had a dime for every time he said, "Like I said". Way to be ahead of the game today though WKC. :)
Quoting Webberweather53:


I'm still in the process of completing my own personal research project comparing Atlantic & Eastern Pacific TC activity in the VPM MJO index created thanks in part to Mike Ventrice vs RMM. The raw RMM data looks noisy, IMO, especially w/ the reduction of ACE over MJO phase 3, this is probably due to the Indian Monsoon forcing the ITCZ so far north that it creates a "boomerang" like effect over the Indian Ocean, essentially causing the RMM Principal Component indices, esp. OLR to incorrectly skip this MJO phase. The VPM index was supposed to correct this error & through Velocity Potential instead of OLR, allows the index to more accurately depict MJO pulses over the climatologically dry western hemisphere, where SST are usually not nearly as sufficient compared to the western Pacific & Indian Ocean warm pool regions to support convection, thus projection onto the OLR component of RMM MJO index over the western hemisphere is "handicapped" by this natural bias...


Nice. Thanks.
Quoting 480. Drakoen:

Glad they issued the Special TWO to better reflect the development we are seeing and the odds seem very appropriate. We'll see how things look as we head into diurnal maximum.


So, I don't really watch the African wave train...but am I correct in saying that the best we have is 6hr updated images of 95? If so, the irony is just plentiful. Deathly silent Atl, and the one decent system out there...we only get new images every 6hrs? lol
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


when did you say this?

Umm not too long ago few hrs ago
Comment # 347 and 395
Quoting 511. SLU:



You missed the action packed 04, 05, 07 and 08 seasons on the blog. ;)


Yeah, I sure did... It's sad to admit, but the first storm I can ever recall watching on TWC is Hurricane Charley w/ Dr. Steve Lyons in 2004 when I was just 8 yrs old. I'm still a kid compared to most here, lol...
Quoting 509. Thrawst:



I thought you were an incoming senior?

Right (well, school started Monday so I am a senior).

But remember that I go to an early college high school, which gives the opportunity for students to take both high school classes and college classes. Because of that privilege, there's also some requirements we have to meet to graduate...an internship, four academic camps, and 150 community hours. We have a 13th year to give extra time to complete those tasks.

Quoting 516. Astrometeor:



Move in day for me is next Thursday at Millersville. :)

Good for you. :P
Quoting 516. Astrometeor:


Move in day for me is next Thursday at Millersville. :)


Graduated from there several years ago. Say hi to Dr. Clark and Eric !!
Quoting 512. DeepSeaRising:

95L is already technically a TD. Or at least as close to one and not be classified as it can be. WKC, Drak, and Hurricane Andre were all over this earlier today. Hurricane Andre called this an invest well before it was classified, and while his comments are often hidden, he was ahead of the game on this one. While this may be classified for but a day's time, shows the unexpected often catches even the NHC off guard. Welcome Webberweather! You provide great info, and join a small class here who really know their stuff. Babbitt, TA, Kori, Drak, and of coarse Levi. And a handful of others. ncstorm, your humor is on point tonight. We are a manic bunch, but for a blog, we do really get along well. Gro the wise grandfather, Sar the annoying uncle you bring all your questions to, TA the youngster who knows more than he should, and ncstorm and washi who are the pithy women who don't conform to the norms. And so many more unique bloggers who make WU what it is.


Just to set the record straight...The GFS has been pointing at this for close to a week now. Tide/Gyre get the credit imho.
Quoting 523. StormJunkie:



So, I don't really watch the African wave train...but am I correct in saying that the best we have is 6hr updated images of 95? If so, the irony is just plentiful. Deathly silent Atl, and the one decent system out there...we only get new images every 6hrs? lol


Not if you use RAMSDIS.
Quoting DeepSeaRising:


WKC is an enthusiastic blogger, but sometimes humility gets the best of him. If I had a dime for every time he said, "Like I said". Way to be ahead of the game today though WKC. :)

Not really enthusiastic
And humility don't really get the best of me well I wouldn't think so

And you seem to go on like you know everything about people on the blog
And you just joined us

This can be a good thing, and a bad one
Quoting 527. Chucktown:



Graduated from there several years ago. Say hi to Dr. Clark and Eric !!


Will do. Shoot me a wu-mail so I can remember your name. :P It's getting really busy over here, so much stuff all of a sudden to do.

----

Even after college, I don't know if my nature would allow me to post all scientifically on this blog. I'll see, though.
Quoting 519. VAbeachhurricanes:

All the little kids growing up, its so cute


Mini Draks in the making.

You're welcome for the laughs.
Quoting Astrometeor:


Move in day for me is next Thursday at Millersville. :)


Incoming freshman?
Quoting 530. wunderkidcayman:


Not really enthusiastic
And humility don't really get the best of me well I wouldn't think so

And you seem to go on like you know everything about people on the blog
And you just joined us

This can be a good thing, and a bad one



Deep has been round for a while
AOI near 35W is closing up the dry air gaps near the center and N sides

Quoting 502. Drakoen:



Did they call you before making the update? Can never be too sure.
We must have managed to grasp a straw yesterday. ;-)


Quoting 529. Drakoen:



Not if you use RAMSDIS.


Thanks Drak. Convection waning a bit. Will be interesting to see if it holds together long enough to get full classification.
Quoting 530. wunderkidcayman:


Not really enthusiastic
And humility don't really get the best of me well I wouldn't think so

And you seem to go on like you know everything about people on the blog
And you just joined us

This can be a good thing, and a bad one



Humility doesn't get the best of me, think about that comment WKC. Oxymoron little bit? I use to be Tribucanes but lost the handle due to loss of my old email account. Have been here for about four years. All good WKC your a good member, bring some personality to the blog mate.
Quoting 533. Stormchaser2007:



Incoming freshman?


Yes, but I have 21 college credits already due to AP coursework.

I know for a fact that two of my three roommates are meteorology majors, I assume the third guy is, but haven't heard from him yet. I'll be sure to invite them to the blog.
I really don't want 95L to be like td 2 that is so close but at the same time so far of reaching a name. If its upgrade it will be a td, just need 5 more mph so it can be a ts.
Quoting STORMW2014:


Deep has been round for a while

Jan 31 2014 is not a while
Anyone from 2012 and going backwards have been here a while
Anyone from from 2010 backwards is a Vet
Anyone from 2007/2005 and backwards is an old timer
Quoting 541. wunderkidcayman:


Jan 31 2014 is not a while
Anyone from 2012 and going backwards have been here a while
Anyone from from 2010 backwards is a Vet
Anyone from 2007/2005 and backwards is an old timer


see post 538....
Quoting 529. Drakoen:



Not if you use RAMSDIS.


yep
Quoting DeepSeaRising:


Humility doesn't get the best of me, think about that comment WKC. Oxymoron little bit? I use to be Tribucanes but lost the handle due to loss of my old email account. Have been here for about four years. All good WKC your a good member, bring some personality to the blog mate.

Oooooh
Lol
That's why I've haven't seen you around ...well as Tribucane
Well ok never mind then
Lol
Quoting Hurricanes101:


see post 538....

Yeah yeah I just saw it ok it makes sense now
Lol
I'm banging my head on a metal door now
Lol
Quoting 510. wunderkidcayman:

AOI near 35W doing well tonight it just might become Invest soon


I don't know...Looks pretty trashy...but what's the harm in dreaming I guess.

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


yep

The question I have is that blob of convection will it rebuild
At the moment it's weakening
Quoting 544. wunderkidcayman:


Oooooh
Lol
That's why I've haven't seen you around ...well as Tribucane
Well ok never mind then
Lol


You know what we don't see this year? Trolls! Unlike the MDR, they've run out of hot, boring, dry air. Props to the mods. Trolls poof faster than a wave headed into the eastern Caribbean.
549. silas

Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Jan 31 2014 is not a while
Anyone from 2012 and going backwards have been here a while
Anyone from from 2010 backwards is a Vet
Anyone from 2007/2005 and backwards is an old timer
I would NOT consider myself an old timer =)
Quoting StormJunkie:


I don't know...Looks pretty trashy...but what's the harm in dreaming I guess.


It's not dreaming it is indeed a lot better than before

Before you didn't really see any blues on the center and N sections
For the past few days

Quoting 549. silas:


I would NOT consider myself an old timer =)

We don't have to consider ourselves that, but the truth doesn't care about our considerations. :-( Lol.
Quoting DeepSeaRising:


You know what we don't see this year? Trolls! Unlike the MDR, they've run out of hot, boring, dry air. Props to the mods. Trolls poof faster than a wave headed into the eastern Caribbean.

Yes I agree

Quoting silas:

I would NOT consider myself an old timer =)

That's probably because your being modest

To be honest I know everyone or nearly everyone above 20/25 wish they was young(younger) again
I wish I was 16/17/18 again and party like there's no tomorrow
Quoting MississippiWx:

We don't have to consider ourselves that, but the truth doesn't care about our considerations. :-( Lol.

Lol that's true
Anyone else majoring in Physics?
Quoting 552. wunderkidcayman:


Yes I agree


That's probably because your being modest

To be honest I know everyone or nearly everyone above 20/25 wish they was young(younger) again
I wish I was 16/17/18 again and party like there's no tomorrow


again?
556. silas

Quoting 551. MississippiWx:


We don't have to consider ourselves that, but the truth doesn't care about our considerations. :-( Lol.

I've been a member since 2006 and lurked for a loooong time but just started commenting this year. Does that still count? Lol.
Quoting 531. Astrometeor:


Will do. Shoot me a wu-mail so I can remember your name. :P It's getting really busy over here, so much stuff all of a sudden to do.

----

Even after college, I don't know if my nature would allow me to post all scientifically on this blog. I'll see, though.


The science building is twice the size now as it was when I went there. The meteorology department has grown tenfold since then. I got accepted to Penn State, but I wasn't going to be able to go to main campus back then until I was a junior, so I settled on MU. Had a great college career, some of my late met classes (Dynamics II and Remote Sensing, etc) had only 10 students !!
Quoting 550. wunderkidcayman:


It's not dreaming it is indeed a lot better than before

Before you didn't really see any blues on the center and N sections
For the past few days


"Better" is relative. I just have a hard time believing that it will ever amount to much of anything. Seems unreasonable to expect it would.
Quoting 547. wunderkidcayman:


The question I have is that blob of convection will it rebuild
At the moment it's weakening
let it weakening
From Aug 9th...Forecast for Aug 15th... GFS = Winner this time.



Quoting 510. wunderkidcayman:

AOI near 35W doing well tonight it just might become Invest soon
i hope soon.
ESPI is 0.17, if El Nino conditions happen. They might not last long.
If what ncstorm shows confirms with this invest headed WSW, this could get far more interesting than ever expected.
next tropical wave on land is big!!
24hrs out and gone.

Had a MODIS pass of 95L earlier..

invest 95L will start to weakening because its moving in cooler water temps!!
Quoting 564. DeepSeaRising:

If what ncstorm shows confirms with this invest headed WSW, this could get far more interesting than ever expected.


I don't think it can move WSW...Almost seems that it is fujiwaring around the very broad wave at 35. The wave at 35 is too large and dry to consolidate, and 95 is too small to do anything but move WNW around it's edge as it dies. I could be way off though; just going on appearance.
570. SLU
Quoting 525. Webberweather53:



Yeah, I sure did... It's sad to admit, but the first storm I can ever recall watching on TWC is Hurricane Charley w/ Dr. Steve Lyons in 2004 when I was just 8 yrs old. I'm still a kid compared to most here, lol...


Lol. Yes you are!

I think 95L will be Cristobal by early tomorrow.
I'd expect a morning blog from Dr. M along the lines of "Storm Flags Flying For The Cape Verdes"
Warnings need to be posted.
Especially for the Cape Verde Island named SAL, home to the main International airport.
Quoting 569. StormJunkie:



I don't think it can move WSW...Almost seems that it is fujiwaring around the very broad wave at 35. The wave at 35 is too large and dry to consolidate, and 95 is too small to do anything but move WNW around it's edge as it dies. I could be way off though; just going on appearance.


the Navgem and the pouch synopsis has 95L absorbing the wave in front of it..

SYNOPSIS 2014081500

P17L
12N, 29W
700 hPa

ECMWF: Although larger than P18L in the analysis, P17L weakens for the next couple days while P18L strengthens and absorbs P17L.

GFS: Continues tracking westward, remaining ahead of and separated from P18L to the ENE. Simply dissipates as a pouch after 36 hours.

UKMET: Opposite of ECMWF. Maintains P17L with OW values in the 7-9 x10-9 s-2 range while weakening P18L. P17L tracks straight to the WNW.

NAVGEM: Strange stalled motion. Except for a weak period during 60-72 hours, remains relatively strong.

HWRF-GEN:

ECMWF -4.0 v700 48h
GFS -6.6 v700 60h
UKMET -4.1 v700 120h
NAVGEM -1.8 v700 120h
HWGEN ———— ———— ———h

SYNOPSIS 2014081500

P18L
14N, 18W
700 hPa

ECMWF: Starts slightly smaller than P17L, but after about a day, P18L becomes the dominant circulation and absorbs P17L. A couple days later, the trough is “bent”, with a fast portion to the northwest and a slower portion to the southeast. I track the slower portion, which has the CL-trough intersection and higher OW.

GFS: P17L and P18L remain separated. (P17L just dissipates on its own farther west.) Similar to ECMWF with an eventual low-latitude pouch location by Day 5. Beginning of interaction with P19L slows P18L.

UKMET: New story and opposite of ECMWF and GFS. UKMET favors P17L, which absorbs P18L after 60 hours.

NAVGEM: Consistent with yesterday’s unusual forecast of quasi-stationary pouches. P18L is essentially still the entire 120 hours just off the African coast as a weakened pouch, with signs of temporary life again at 84 hours.

HWRF-GEN:

ECMWF -6.0 v700 120h
GFS -7.1 v700 120h
UKMET -5.2 v700 60h
NAVGEM -0.3 v700 120h
HWGEN ———— ———— ———h



If this were showing a storm; it would have been posted 5 times by now...48hrs out.

You know how it is this season, 95L has but a small window, could well be back at 10/10 this time tomorrow. Not good that convection is waning. D-max has been anything but the last two years. Will tonight be any different for our fledgling invest?
Hey, y'all! I'm heading back to Asheville in four hours to start my sophomore year of college. Should be a fun 4 hours drive :)
nc, I'm not quoting that for length of it...but very interesting read. Will be fun to see which plays out. Personally, I have a very hard time imagining that little old 18L absorbs 17L. Embryos fighting over the womb...
Quoting 500. Webberweather53:



Nah, believe it or not, I'm actually an amateur like most of you here, I just "specialize" when it comes to Equatorial Waves & tropical phenomena, similar to scientists like Mike Ventrice, Carl Schreck, & Paul Roundy. However, tomorrow is move in day for me @ NC State, so technically I will be a freshman in college pursuing a meteorology degree, (maybe a PhD)


Us folks at UNC-Asheville are taking that Tobacco Cup back (an award for best team score in North Carolina for WxChallenge forecasting contest which we held for awhile) :P
Quoting 576. Bluestorm5:

Hey, y'all! I'm heading back to Asheville in four hours to start my sophomore year of college. Should be a fun 4 hours drive :)


What classes will you be taking?
Quoting 577. StormJunkie:

nc, I'm not quoting that for length of it...but very interesting read. Will be fun to see which plays out. Personally, I have a very hard time imagining that little old 18L absorbs 17L. Embryos fighting over the womb...


LOL..
95L absorbing the wave in front of it? Doesn't seem possible. Models fail badly until a systems forms. Intensity guidance for 94L had it becoming a hurricane and a cat2 at that. Should take it for what it is, a TD for a day period, or more likely, a wave that fails to form and loses convection as it heads off. But, today was fun none the less. Hope is still alive, September is coming, dry air will be moving out, and vertical instability will be on the rise. We've seen similar seasons, and they usually have one major that in September roars for landfall along the Gulf coast or Florida. Might be only one, but will galvanize the blog no doubt when it does happen.
Quoting 579. Drakoen:



What classes will you be taking?


I am going to focus on computer science. I love meteorology but the income is not big enough for my family needs right now.
Bummer. TMI missed.

Quoting 579. Drakoen:



What classes will you be taking?


Only one meteorology class (an analysis lab) this semester. Otherwise, it's Calculus III and 3 other classes I need to fill up liberal arts requirements. So far, I'm 3 for 3 with As in meteorology classes.
Quoting 582. Camille33:



I am going to focus on computer science. I love meteorology but the income is not big enough for my family needs right now.


Why not double major or dual-degree. It would be to your benefit. If you want to do meteorological research learning to program is a must. Many programs implement FORTRAN into a computations class as part of the meteorology requirement, although some schools are teaching python as well.
Quoting 585. Drakoen:



Why not double major or dual-degree. It would be to your benefit. If you want to do meteorological research learning to program is a must. Many programs implement FORTRAN into a computations class as part of the meteorology requirement, although some schools are teaching python as well.


Ahh, fancy programing languages...What happened to the good old days of rope memory? Alright, that was before my time even...But pretty cool way to overcome memory problems before the vast improvements...

Quoting 584. Bluestorm5:



Only one meteorology class (an analysis lab) this semester. Otherwise, it's Calculus III and 3 other classes I need to fill up liberal arts requirements. So far, I'm 3 for 3 with As in meteorology classes.


Calc 3 is probably one of the more useful classes out of the Calc series (which excludes ODE and PDEs). As you get deeper in the class you will learn about Flux, Green's theorem, Divergence which are encompassed by Stokes theorem.
84hrs out...I'm not sure what to think about that.

Quoting 586. StormJunkie:



Ahh, fancy programing languages...What happened to the good old days of rope memory? Alright, that was before my time even...But pretty cool way to overcome memory problems before the vast improvements...



We're calling FORTRAN "fancy" now? LOL.
Quoting 587. Drakoen:



Calc 3 is probably one of the more useful classes out of the Calc series (which excludes ODE and PDEs). As you get deeper in the class you will learn about Flux, Green's theorem, Divergence which are encompassed by Stokes theorem.


The thing is I'm not that great with Calculus, although I've survived two of them so far last year. Programming is another concern of mine as I found out last year. I thought I was always decent at computers, but programming and coding was a whole different world. Even though I got an A from programming lab, it still left me with concerns if I can handle it on my own. However, I've proven that my understanding of actual meteorology itself is great by doing well in WxChallenge for a freshman (including getting a trophy over 500 people for the best city score). I also impressed my professors by showing my knowledge of meteorology history as well. They actually called me an encyclopedia for tornado and hurricane history, lol. I'm looking forward to see how next year goes, especially with me signing up for a spot on couple of UNCA projects.

EDIT: I should mention I really love using ArcGIS. Such a shame UNCA doesn't offer geography minor...
Quoting 589. Drakoen:



We're calling FORTRAN "fancy" now? LOL.


Considering all I ever really did with programming was some basic DOS way back; yeah. Was always interested in programming, but never did follow up on it. Even structured text often loses me; but that's a slightly different ball game.
Quoting 584. Bluestorm5:



Only one meteorology class (an analysis lab) this semester. Otherwise, it's Calculus III and 3 other classes I need to fill up liberal arts requirements. So far, I'm 3 for 3 with As in meteorology classes.


Is it ATM243 (Weather forecasting)? If so, I'm taking that as well this upcoming semester!

As for dual majoring, I'm doing a double major in Meteorology and Math. Feeling that it'll help that I have a double major with math, concerning that many higher level met courses involve many functions and equations that involve with dynamics and other assorted classes that could be taken during my masters career.
96hrs...Still confused.

our beloved CMC is running.


30 hours
Quoting 592. Thrawst:



Is it ATM243 (Weather forecasting)? If so, I'm taking that as well this upcoming semester!

As for dual majoring, I'm doing a double major in Meteorology and Math. Feeling that it'll help that I have a double major with math, concerning that many higher level met courses involve many functions and equations that involve with dynamics and other assorted classes that could be taken during my masters career.


It's not really a forecasting class. Just some practices with analyzing weather maps, I believe.
Quoting 590. Bluestorm5:



The thing is I'm not that great with Calculus, although I've survived two of them so far last year. Programming is another concern of mine as I found out last year. I thought I was always decent at computers, but programming and coding was a whole different world. Even though I got an A from programming lab, it still left me with concerns if I can handle it on my own. However, I've proven that my understanding of actual meteorology itself is great by doing well in WxChallenge for a freshman (including getting a trophy over 500 people for the best city score). I also impressed my professors by showing my knowledge of meteorology history as well. They actually called me an encyclopedia for tornado and hurricane history, lol. I'm looking forward to see how next year goes, especially with me signing up for a spot on couple of UNCA projects.


The best way to get better at programming is to practice. Think of problems on your own and try and solve them. For example, if I give you a large square matrix can you find the eigenvectors and eigenvalues, maximum and minimum values, find where a condition holds true.
Quoting allancalderini:
Anyone else majoring in Physics?


B.A. in Physics right here.
00z Navgem is still doing a Pacman and having 95L absorbed the wave in front of it..

Quoting 592. Thrawst:



Is it ATM243 (Weather forecasting)? If so, I'm taking that as well this upcoming semester!

As for dual majoring, I'm doing a double major in Meteorology and Math. Feeling that it'll help that I have a double major with math, concerning that many higher level met courses involve many functions and equations that involve with dynamics and other assorted classes that could be taken during my masters career.


It will help if you take applied math courses (PDEs, Numerical Analysis, etc). Pure math classes like Abstract Algebra and Advanced Calculus/Real Analysis probably won't be of much help.
Quoting 598. ncstorm:

00z Navgem is still doing a Pacman and having 95L absorbed the wave in front of it..




That's just a hot mess...lol
Quoting 596. Drakoen:



The best way to get better at programming is to practice. Think of problems on your own and try and solve them. For example, if I give you a large square matrix can you find the eigenvectors and eigenvalues, maximum and minimum values, find where a condition holds true.
.... Say what?
42 hours-CMC
Quoting 587. Drakoen:



Calc 3 is probably one of the more useful classes out of the Calc series (which excludes ODE and PDEs). As you get deeper in the class you will learn about Flux, Green's theorem, Divergence which are encompassed by Stokes theorem.


Calc 3 and ODE are my favorite math classes. I'm considering taking PDE at some point since I'm interested in grad school, but its been a long time since taking a math class so its a bit intimidating to me.
Quoting 596. Drakoen:



The best way to get better at programming is to practice. Think of problems on your own and try and solve them. For example, if I give you a large square matrix can you find the eigenvectors and eigenvalues, maximum and minimum values, find where a condition holds true.


The scary part is I have no clue what you're talking about :\ I am sure there's classes later on in my college career, but I think UNCA's focus is to teach more meteorology and forecasting itself and less on computers, although I've some practices on few programming like FORTRAN, GARP, MatLab, Linux, ArcGIS, etc. Personally, I think I did okay with GARP and ArcGIS but I still need to practice using the use basics in Linux. Remember UNCA is a small liberal arts school so there isn't much room to add in math and computer classes. Options are also limited as well with class choices.
Quoting 590. Bluestorm5:



The thing is I'm not that great with Calculus, although I've survived two of them so far last year. Programming is another concern of mine as I found out last year. I thought I was always decent at computers, but programming and coding was a whole different world. Even though I got an A from programming lab, it still left me with concerns if I can handle it on my own. However, I've proven that my understanding of actual meteorology itself is great by doing well in WxChallenge for a freshman (including getting a trophy over 500 people for the best city score). I also impressed my professors by showing my knowledge of meteorology history as well. They actually called me an encyclopedia for tornado and hurricane history, lol. I'm looking forward to see how next year goes, especially with me signing up for a spot on couple of UNCA projects.

EDIT: I should mention I really love using ArcGIS. Such a shame UNCA doesn't offer geography minor...


Glad your doing so well Bluestorm! History and psychology are more my suit, you and other younguns here blow me away with what your learning. Levi, Drak, Bluestorm, TA, Kori, and on and on. We have so many great young minds here. Sounds like your exceeding maybe even your own expectations Blue. Use to be Tribucanes Blue, know your story well. You've overcome so much and continue to be on a trajectory that will end in happiness and working a career you love. Keep it up!
Quoting 541. wunderkidcayman:


Jan 31 2014 is not a while
Anyone from 2012 and going backwards have been here a while
Anyone from from 2010 backwards is a Vet
Anyone from 2007/2005 and backwards is an old timer

I have been here since 2007 and I do not consider myself a oldtimer or even a vet, although maybe I would be if I did more than lurk and occasionally post.
I think 95L may get a special advisory at 2am, and if not the graphical outlook will be interesting so I am staying up. The thing about storms that form right off of Africa is that they almost never last, 2013 even had a few of these storms but the dry MDR will kill it. I am hoping it indicates and active wave train that may mean more storms but that is pure optimism
72 hours CMC
Quoting 605. DeepSeaRising:



Glad your doing so well Bluestorm! History and psychology are more my suit, you and other younguns here blow me away with what your learning. Levi, Drak, Bluestorm, TA, Kori, and on and on. We have so many great young minds here. Sounds like your exceeding maybe even your own expectations Blue. Use to be Tribucanes Blue, know your story well. You've overcome so much and continue to be on a trajectory that will end in happiness and working a career you love. Keep it up!

Thank you for remembering my story :) Yeah, I did indeed exceeded my expectations and the plus of UNCA's size is I got attention of my professors how well I'm doing. They are expecting me to do well, which is nice to know :)
609. JLPR2
Not that outrageous to think 95L could try to merge with the TW in front of it, there's already a link between them at the 700mb level.

Quoting 601. OracleDeAtlantis:

.... Say what?


What the hell are eigenvectors and eigenvalues? LOL, like the computer in 1980, the study in weather science is on the rise and will increase a hundred fold in the next ten years. Mother was a professor for Calc at Purdue, I barely survived Geometry. We're lucky to have so many smart, hungry, lovers of the tropics and weather science here.
Quoting 603. Jedkins01:



Calc 3 and ODE are my favorite math classes. I'm considering taking PDE at some point since I'm interested in grad school, but its been a long time since taking a math class so its a bit intimidating to me.


It would be good for you to review ODEs and Linear Algebra before you take PDE. I highly recommend you take Linear Algebra, even if you don't take PDE (which they will make you take in grad school if you don't in undergrad). Some PDEs can be broken down into a system of ODEs that can be solved. Another example is finding the eigenfunction expansion of nonhomogenous PDEs.
102 hours
Quoting 599. Drakoen:



It will help if you take applied math courses (PDEs, Numerical Analysis, etc). Pure math classes like Abstract Algebra and Advanced Calculus/Real Analysis probably won't be of much help.


Don't worry. Those classes such as ODE and PDE, numerical analysis and stats are all required to complete a math major here at U Miami.
Quoting 604. Bluestorm5:



The scary part is I have no clue what you're talking about :\ I am sure there's classes later on in my college career, but I think UNCA's focus is to teach more meteorology and forecasting itself and less on computers, although I've some practices on few programming like FORTRAN, GARP, MatLab, Linux, ArcGIS, etc. Personally, I think I did okay with GARP and ArcGIS but I still need to practice using the use basics in Linux. Remember UNCA is a small liberal arts school so there isn't much room to add in math and computer classes. Options are also limited as well with class choices.


Is there no class in your program dedicated to teach a programming language like FORTRAN, IDL, Python, C , etc?
If not I would recommend taking classes in the CS department if possible, ones that teach you how to programming in a language (non theoretical).
Quoting 595. Bluestorm5:



It's not really a forecasting class. Just some practices with analyzing weather maps, I believe.


Well. I'm sure we will be doing just fine in that class then lol
Navgem is still set on ex 94L making a final curtain call in the GOM


Quoting 609. JLPR2:

Not that outrageous to think 95L could try to merge with the TW in front of it, there's already a link between them at the 700mb level.




Looks like PVA is ensuing.
Quoting 614. Drakoen:



Is there no class in your program dedicated to teach a programming language like FORTRAN, IDL, Python, C , etc?
If not I would recommend taking classes in the CS department if possible, ones that teach you how to programming in a language (non theoretical).


There is a 3 credits FORTRAN course that's required that I'm supposed to take by 2nd semester of junior year in additional to a lab I just completed last year. I think this is where UNCA do most of their programming teaching.
Quoting 541. wunderkidcayman:


Jan 31 2014 is not a while
Anyone from 2012 and going backwards have been here a while
Anyone from from 2010 backwards is a Vet
Anyone from 2007/2005 and backwards is an old timer

Old timer? Hmmmmm....
Quoting 618. Bluestorm5:



There is a 3 credits FORTRAN course that's required that I'm supposed to take by 2nd semester of junior year in additional to a lab I just completed last year. I think this is where UNCA do most of their programming teaching.


You should be good then. When I used FORTRAN we had to use another program to graph/look at the data after it was exported. I'm not aware if there are any FORTRAN libraries that would allow you to directly graph in FORTRAN but I would also recommend learning another language that encompasses computation and graphing like IDL, Matlab, Python, etc.
Quoting 586. StormJunkie:



Ahh, fancy programing languages...What happened to the good old days of rope memory? Alright, that was before my time even...But pretty cool way to overcome memory problems before the vast improvements...




Grothar still has a computer equipped with one of those bad boys, how do you think he runs his in house model?
Quoting 585. Drakoen:



Why not double major or dual-degree. It would be to your benefit. If you want to do meteorological research learning to program is a must. Many programs implement FORTRAN into a computations class as part of the meteorology requirement, although some schools are teaching python as well.


I am at a cuny city college school here in ny. I thought about transferring for met before but I just don't have the money.... associated with my family divorce.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Grothar still has a computer equipped with one of those bad boys, how do you think he runs his in house model?


Grothar used a balloon with a wet finger against the wind back in the day. :P
Quoting 620. Drakoen:



You should be good then. When I used FORTRAN we had to use another program to graph/look at the data after it was exported. I'm not aware if there are any FORTRAN libraries that would allow you to directly graph in FORTRAN but I would also recommend learning another language that encompasses computation and graphing like IDL, Matlab, Python, etc.

Thanks, Drak. I'll keep this in my mind! Hey, you're done with first four years of college right?
Quoting 624. Bluestorm5:


Thanks, Drak. I'll keep this in my mind! Hey, you're done with first four years of college right?


lol?
Quoting 625. Drakoen:



lol?


Sorry. Was wondering how far you're ahead of me rather than questioning you if you felt that way.
Wow Ex94L hits the eastern Caribbean and quickly gets convection killed. No way this ever makes the Gulf. Dry air is bad in the Caribbean but trade winds are worse than they were last year. 95L has 50/50 shot at being named by morning. If we get our third named storm by tomorrow we'll be on pace for an average season. When SAL lessens in a couple weeks time, makes you wonder if September is going to surprise, maybe in a big way. SAL lessens, Caribbean becomes conducive, these waves could really produce multiple September majors. As far as we've come with the science, do we really have any idea what September holds? And if not, how far do we have to go, and how fast will we get there?
Quoting 613. Thrawst:



Don't worry. Those classes such as ODE and PDE, numerical analysis and stats are all required to complete a math major here at U Miami.
i went to university of miami. Graduated 1975. Biology major,then med. School.
Quoting 628. drs2008:

i went to university of miami. Graduated 1975. Biology major,then med. School.


Gotta plus the docs. Shortages big time. Hard job, doctors and NFL players have the shortest life expectancy. Stressful in very very different ways. Thank you.
631. Relix
Why do some models show a WSW movement? Any reason?

EDIT: Geesh WKC you just made me look at my member since date. Oh god I am old... and I was here in 2005 lurking haha
Quoting 603. Jedkins01:



Calc 3 and ODE are my favorite math classes. I'm considering taking PDE at some point since I'm interested in grad school, but its been a long time since taking a math class so its a bit intimidating to me.


Yeah I can't wait to take them, I might try to learn some on my own if I can get to Differential Equations next semester. I used PDEs for my research this summer, but I don't have a full or broad understanding.
Quoting 611. Drakoen:



It would be good for you to review ODEs and Linear Algebra before you take PDE. I highly recommend you take Linear Algebra, even if you don't take PDE (which they will make you take in grad school if you don't in undergrad). Some PDEs can be broken down into a system of ODEs that can be solved. Another example is finding the eigenfunction expansion of nonhomogenous PDEs.


Sounds like this at my local university.

Link

I'm kinda disappointed I let up sophomore year so I won't get to this in HS but I may try to self learn if I have time this summer and going into college.
Quoting 620. Drakoen:



You should be good then. When I used FORTRAN we had to use another program to graph/look at the data after it was exported. I'm not aware if there are any FORTRAN libraries that would allow you to directly graph in FORTRAN but I would also recommend learning another language that encompasses computation and graphing like IDL, Matlab, Python, etc.


Would you recommend MATLAB or Python?
This summer I used MATLAB but in the past I was learning Python and I think that's what Levi uses.
635. JRRP
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located about midway between the west coast of Africa and
the Cape Verde Islands continues to show signs of organization.
Some development is possible during the next 12 to 24 hours, and a
tropical depression could form while this system moves westward to
west-northwestward at around 5 mph. After that time, environmental
conditions are expected to become less conducive for development or
strengthening. Interests in the Cape Verde Islands should monitor
the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 day...medium...50 percent.
Quoting 634. GeorgiaStormz:



Would you recommend MATLAB or Python?
This summer I used MATLAB but in the past I was learning Python and I think that's what Levi uses.


Python has more capabilities outside of numerical computer programming. I'm more familiar with MATLAB which usually has nice built in functions you can use so you don't have to hard code what you want.
Bad news, looks like the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) is dead. Ran out of fuel last month for on-orbit operations.
Quoting 635. JRRP:

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located about midway between the west coast of Africa and
the Cape Verde Islands continues to show signs of organization.
Some development is possible during the next 12 to 24 hours, and a
tropical depression could form while this system moves westward to
west-northwestward at around 5 mph. After that time, environmental
conditions are expected to become less conducive for development or
strengthening. Interests in the Cape Verde Islands should monitor
the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 day...medium...50 percent.

This doesn't seem like an update I don't think anything new was said and maybe I am just tired but i could have sworn that is what they said verbatim at 9:30. (maybe in a few minutes a real update will come out?)
Quoting DeepSeaRising:


Gotta plus the docs. Shortages big time. Hard job, doctors and NFL players have the shortest life expectancy. Stressful in very very different ways. Thank you.
Not any longer there's not. I have a niece that's a pediatric surgeon and a nephew that's an ophthalmic surgeon. Both of them are lucky they have specialties that allow them to find decent paying jobs. They've both been out of school for about 10 years and won't pay off all their loans for another 10 years. Many of their classmates ended up working as hospitalists or VA docs because there's such an oversupply of specialties like internal medicine. We as a country made a grave error allowing so many foreign doctors to immigrate in the last 20 years while encouraging so many native born citizens to become doctors. The real shortage now is nurses, but we're repeating the same error with them.
Quoting all4hurricanes:

This doesn't seem like an update I don't think anything new was said and maybe I am just tired but i could have sworn that is what they said verbatim at 9:30. (maybe in a few minutes a real update will come out?)
Similar but not identical. This one doesn't mention wind speed.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Bad news, looks like the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) is dead. Ran out of fuel last month for on-orbit operations.
Does that mean the batteries went dead or what?
eigenvalues and vectors have nothing to do with fluxions folks ... I'm staying out of this btw
(I used that word on purpose) - take care and good night and good luck - it is all about right angles in many dimensions. nite
Quoting 640. sar2401:

Similar but not identical. This one doesn't mention wind speed.

*sigh* I guess I stayed up til two for squat
good night
Quoting Drakoen:


Python has more capabilities outside of numerical computer programming. I'm more familiar with MATLAB which usually has nice built in functions you can use so you don't have to hard code what you want.
Geez, you guys are so far beyond me when it comes to computers. It's amazing. I started back in the days when FORTRAN was about the only high level language, and CPM was going to be the big deal for those dinky desktop computers. I have used Python for graphing statistical functions and can recommend that.
Quoting all4hurricanes:

*sigh* I guess I stayed up til two for squat
good night
Well, this is not a fast intensifying storm, so we'll see what the rest of the morning will bring. Have a good night.
Quoting 639. sar2401:

Not any longer there's not. I have a niece that's a pediatric surgeon and a nephew that's an ophthalmic surgeon. Both of them are lucky they have specialties that allow them to find decent paying jobs. They've both been out of school for about 10 years and won't pay off all their loans for another 10 years. Many of their classmates ended up working as hospitalists or VA docs because there's such an oversupply of specialties like internal medicine. We as a country made a grave error allowing so many foreign doctors to immigrate in the last 20 years while encouraging so many native born citizens to become doctors. The real shortage now is nurses, but we're repeating the same error with them.


Yes Sar, that's right on. Rural docs is where the shortage is. Obama care is working in many ways, but many now with coverage won't go , because co-pays are so high and many now feel out of the loop and won't go because they have no coverage. Miss the Reagan, go if you need and it'll be covered. So many can't afford health care. Fear we are now entering a time when many will just forgo seeing a doctor because we have priced the poor out. And we are a country of the poor. Wealthiest country in the world but it's top down. Obama care has created an atmosphere of elitism when it comes to health care. I'm in that sinking boat. Outside of a life threatening condition, I can't afford to take my daughter to a doctor and I'm a working family. The populace shouldn't have to foot the bill and yet the populace shouldn't have healthcare that puts us at risk of financial failure. It's where we're at. I and my wife work damn hard, yet can't afford healthcare, even though we're now covered.
Sar.... you might be lucking out with this little "trough" "front" whatever that is making its way through TX right now... looks like the gulf plume is wanting to agitate a little...
648. MahFL
Morning all, covering a half nigh shift for a co-worker tonight. Orange alert in the ATL :).
Quoting saltydog1327:
Sar.... you might be lucking out with this little "trough" "front" whatever that is making its way through TX right now... looks like the gulf plume is wanting to agitate a little...
One can only hope. It doesn't look good for much of that moisture to make it this far east, although the PW values are finally getting above 1". With our heat wave arriving, it looks like about normal climatology chances for thunderstorms from Sunday on.
invest 95L MOVING SO SLOW
Quoting DeepSeaRising:


Yes Sar, that's right on. Rural docs is where the shortage is. Obama care is working in many ways, but many now with coverage won't go , because co-pays are so high and many now feel out of the loop and won't go because they have no coverage. Miss the Reagan, go if you need and it'll be covered. So many can't afford health care. Fear we are now entering a time when many will just forgo seeing a doctor because we have priced the poor out. And we are a country of the poor. Wealthiest country in the world but it's top down. Obama care has created an atmosphere of elitism when it comes to health care. I'm in that sinking boat. Outside of a life threatening condition, I can't afford to take my daughter to a doctor and I'm a working family. The populace shouldn't have to foot the bill and yet the populace shouldn't have healthcare that puts us at risk of financial failure. It's where we're at. I and my wife work damn hard, yet can't afford healthcare, even though we're now covered.
I'm the leading edge of the baby boomer tidal wave. I'm on Medicare, and there are millions more like me, with numbers increasing every day. We'll all just demand whatever we need for medical care and get it, since all of us old people vote at very high rates compared to the rest of the population. The poor don't vote much, but they are swing votes in crucial elections, so they'll get what they want also. The working middle class has to bear all this. It's a terrible situation. I wish I could change it. All I can say is, get a second job. You'll need it. :-(

the next tropical wave is coming soon
Looking at 95L right now, it's not a very impressive storm. Not only isn't there much increase in organization, it appears to be more disorganized at this hour. We should be getting near DMAX and, as usual this year, the storm looks worse, not better. It appears this will go through the CV Islands as nothing more than a tropical wave.

Quoting 654. sar2401:

Looking at 95L right now, it's not a very impressive storm. Not only isn't there much increase in organization, it appears to be more disorganized at this hour. We should be getting near DMAX and, as usual this year, the storm looks worse, not better. It appears this will go through the CV Islands as nothing more than a tropical wave.




Just as I thought.

lulz
656. JLPR2
Well now the NHC was correct to hold off upgrading 95L (I still think It was a TD for a short period though), the LLC is now exposed to the east of the convection & the Mid-level circulation, this was most likely caused by an increase in easterly shear courtesy of the next wave that is on its way to the coast.



LLC at 19.5ishW and 15.2N.
tropical waves are moving to slow the next tropical wave is going to right next to it.. we have three tropical waves right next together..that is not going to work at all
Quoting JLPR2:
Well now the NHC was correct to hold off upgrading 95L (I still think It was a TD for a short period though), the LLC is now exposed to the east of the convection & the Mid-level circulation, this was most likely caused by an increase in easterly shear courtesy of the next wave that is on its way to the coast.



LLC at 19.5ishW and 15.2N.
While it's certainly possible that 95L was briefly a TD, the NHC, absent some public safety issue, doesn't do minute by minute upgrades and downgrades to storms. While we weather geeks might like to see it become a TD, imagine how confused the public would get when a storm becomes a TD and, on the next update, it's downgraded. There was never a good reason to upgrade 95L, and it seems pretty clear now that the NHC's caution about the structure of this storm was justified.
invest 95L will get hit by wind shear from the next tropical wave back of it and maybe come together with the tropical lw west of it to..
invest 95L need to move faster or its going to get eat for lunch soon by the next tropical wave and its big to
Quoting 652. sar2401:

I'm the leading edge of the baby boomer tidal wave. I'm on Medicare, and there are millions more like me, with numbers increasing every day. We'll all just demand whatever we need for medical care and get it, since all of us old people vote at very high rates compared to the rest of the population. The poor don't vote much, but they are swing votes in crucial elections, so they'll get what they want also. The working middle class has to bear all this. It's a terrible situation. I wish I could change it. All I can say is, get a second job. You'll need it. :-(
As a physician,I believe the root cause of our problem is that we are short 100,000 physicians.im booked out 6 months. Im primary care provider.
The ecmwf...Hmmmmm, interesting solution with P17
LOL...I'm ready to track some winter storms...
665. 882MB
Quoting 662. 3211976:

The ecmwf...Hmmmmm, interesting solution with P17



Interesting indeed, this mornings 850 vorticity has also increased, it looks like this wave has surrounded itself, with a more moist environment, last night into this morning. Even thunderstorm activity has also increased somewhat around that spin, very interesting.
good morning! other than ex 94 about to give puerto rico a needed shower or two there is nothing worth mentioning. maybe enough rain already for cen.florida
I cant stand The 2014 Hurricane Season!!!!! LOL!

95L going poof. No surprise. Looks like we probably won't even get a TD out of it now. A testament to how unfavorable that region of the Atlantic is this year, along with most other regions as well.

Quoting 666. islander101010:

good morning! other than ex 94 about to give puerto rico a needed shower or two there is nothing worth mentioning. maybe enough rain already for cen.florida

Ex 94L has had a nice DMAX flare up this morning, looks like Caribboy is getting some good rains, hopefully it holds together to PR. Not to be mistaken for an attempt at development, 850mb vort remains practically non-existent, but it is good news for the northern islands.

Cold in the NE this morning.

Quoting 658. sar2401:

While it's certainly possible that 95L was briefly a TD, the NHC, absent some public safety issue, doesn't do minute by minute upgrades and downgrades to storms. While we weather geeks might like to see it become a TD, imagine how confused the public would get when a storm becomes a TD and, on the next update, it's downgraded. There was never a good reason to upgrade 95L, and it seems pretty clear now that the NHC's caution about the structure of this storm was justified.

I respectfully disagree. It is what is was at the time a TD. Now there is probably more criteria out there the NHC uses to designate a TD and I am completely ok with that, even though I would enjoy hearing more and learning what that might be. If it was a TD a for six hours then it was a TD for six hours. Maybe in post season analysis it will be designated, if not oh well.
3.36" of rain yesterday in my weather station just SE of Fort Myers.

Local Met said African dust moving in over the weekend and rain chance should go down, especially on Sunday.
canadian still playing with the idea of a s. california rain event
can this season end already... I don't even know if I should look forward to next season... for all we know we could get yet another dud year
676. JRRP
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 20 min
Impressive wave moving west from over Africa.. Pattern will be more active next week.
Quoting 676. JRRP:

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 20 min
Impressive wave moving west from over Africa.. Pattern will be more active next week.
I've been hearing that week after week and it looks like we are stalling. don't be shocked if nothing else develops. pattern is extremely unfavorable. worse than a typical el nino. MUCH WORSE
Does anybody know when the last time a season had no named storms in August? Because it looks like this year it may happen. We only got two more weeks left in August.
Hmmmm.... the ecmwf develops the mid atlantic wave into a TD late next week entering the caribbean, near the Dominica by saturday
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
I've been hearing that week after week and it looks like we are stalling. don't be shocked if nothing else develops. pattern is extremely unfavorable. worse than a typical el nino. MUCH WORSE


In a "normal year" based on climatology we'd see 4 named system in just August.
By the end of the month we should be up to 5 named systems.

So just based on climatology, its a good bet we will see at least 1 named system by the end of the month. But as we know, this year is far from "normal."
681. JRRP
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
I've been hearing that week after week and it looks like we are stalling. don't be shocked if nothing else develops. pattern is extremely unfavorable. worse than a typical el nino. MUCH WORSE

very bad
jbs video clip should be released shortly. wonder what he has to say about the "season is waking up" tweet? remember last yr with all the invest and wannnabees invest that did not develop. this yr seems about the same.
My 10/3/1 guesstimate is seeming more and more inflated as time goes by. Since June we've been hearing the pattern will be more favorable next week, only to hear that said the following week.

It is clear the Atlantic has nothing in it, can't even get something forming in the Gulf. I think it's possible we could go 6/2/0 at this rate.

Maybe we should look to 2016/2017 for more storms, since I don't see a major recovery occurring by next year.
Atlantic is the driest basin ATM..
But looks to be changing..
And it can do that quickly..

685. SLU
Lol
I wake up and see 95L looking the way it does
Not surprised at all

Hi SLU. Do you still believe that 2015 will be much better for TC's in the Atlantic after what we are seeing and El Nino being delayed?
Although out of the past 3 AOIs whatever LLC they may have 95Ls LLC is tighter and small and slightly more organised
I will believe it when I see it!
Quoting JRRP:
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 20 min
Impressive wave moving west from over Africa.. Pattern will be more active next week.
Quoting LemieT:
My 10/3/1 guesstimate is seeming more and more inflated as time goes by. Since June we've been hearing the pattern will be more favorable next week, only to hear that said the following week.

It is clear the Atlantic has nothing in it, can't even get something forming in the Gulf. I think it's possible we could go 6/2/0 at this rate.

Maybe we should look to 2016/2017 for more storms, since I don't see a major recovery occurring by next year.


I won't even say mine. But unless we see some systems in the next few weeks, I'll be waaaaayyy off my prediction.

Average is 11. So the safe bet would have been 9-13 named systems (which many went with playing it safe),and the chances are you'd be pretty close. That's what I usually teach my students.

But I went against the more proven method and did some wishcasting in my forecasting. Wishcasting because there were no indications to support my prediction of an above average season.
691. SLU
Quoting 678. bigwes6844:

Does anybody know when the last time a season had no named storms in August? Because it looks like this year it may happen. We only got two more weeks left in August.




1997. No NSD from July 27th to September 3rd.

1 Subtropical Storm 1 31 MAY- 2 JUN 45 1003 -
2 Tropical Storm ANA 30 JUN- 5 JUL 40 1000
3 Hurricane-1 BILL 11-13 JUL 65 986
4 Tropical Storm CLAUDETTE 13-16 JUL 40 1003
5 Hurricane-1 DANNY 16-27 JUL 70 984
6 Tropical Depression 6 17-19 JUL 30 0
7 Hurricane-3 ERIKA 3-19 SEP 110 946
8 Extratropical Storm FABIAN 4- 8 OCT 40 1004
9 Extratropical Storm GRACE 14-17 OCT 40 999
693. ackee
The wave the ECMWF devlops in a TD next week is this the frist time this seasons the ECmwf devlops a wave ?
694. SLU
Quoting 687. Tropicsweatherpr:

Hi SLU. Do you still believe that 2015 will be much better for TC's in the Atlantic after what we are seeing and El Nino being delayed?


Yes I do. The El Nino will most likely develop during fall and and last through winter. There's a great chance that it will be a short-lived 4 - 6 month event that could turn to neutral (or hopefully La Nina) in time for ASO 2015.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Quoting 683. LemieT:

My 10/3/1 guesstimate is seeming more and more inflated as time goes by. Since June we've been hearing the pattern will be more favorable next week, only to hear that said the following week.

It is clear the Atlantic has nothing in it, can't even get something forming in the Gulf. I think it's possible we could go 6/2/0 at this rate.

Maybe we should look to 2016/2017 for more storms, since I don't see a major recovery occurring by next year.

We could easily get 4 in Sept and 4 in Oct. It is only August 16th we just entered the most active part of the season. Still plenty of time for things to get active.
Former 94L not looking to bad at the moment
Convection is increasing
Has vort at 925,850,700,500 and are sorta stacked but vort at 700 and 500 are weak with 500 being the weakest
Shear not too bad 20-10kts and weakening
Good low level convergence and upper level divergence
Not much dry air and SAL in the immediate area
The major problem would probably have to be the trade wind in the Caribbean
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Early morning visible satellite images indicate that the shower
activity associated with an area of low pressure centered between
the west coast of Africa and the Cape Verde Islands has become
disorganized. Although the potential for tropical cyclone formation
has diminished considerably, the low could still produce a few
squalls over the Cape Verde Islands today as it drifts
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 day...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila
Morning everyone

How nice it is to listen to rain outside!! Really hope my "neighbor islands get some of this too!

Link

(you may have to refresh it)

Lindy
Quoting 652. sar2401:

I'm the leading edge of the baby boomer tidal wave. I'm on Medicare, and there are millions more like me, with numbers increasing every day. We'll all just demand whatever we need for medical care and get it, since all of us old people vote at very high rates compared to the rest of the population. The poor don't vote much, but they are swing votes in crucial elections, so they'll get what they want also. The working middle class has to bear all this. It's a terrible situation. I wish I could change it. All I can say is, get a second job. You'll need it. :-(
The good thing is that we have developed a class of uber-rich that is world class! I love the fact that I am in the crosshairs (working wife, 3 kids, pay Social Security Max....and the comforting knowledge that the ubers pay the same SS even though they earn 10000x more than me.) At least we will save on our electric bills by not having to waste any tracking Cape Verde storms ever again. SAL is a permanent feature. And my family is too proud to bother with storms that form off washed-out fronts and the like. Gotta go....to my weekend job.
Quoting islander101010:
jbs video clip should be released shortly. wonder what he has to say about the "season is waking up" tweet? remember last yr with all the invest and wannnabees invest that did not develop. this yr seems about the same.


He's just betting on climatology. We are moving into the most active part of the season.
Usually see a named system form about 1 per week this time of year.

Even with a bone dry Atlantic, we are bound to see a named system before then end of the month.



Think of it this way...

We have already had two hurricanes.
Yeah, one was ugly...
But the other one was nice looking, was it not? (Better looking then any storm last season) Aaaaaaaand, it affected the US.
So in all reality, this season is somewhat better then last season in my eyes.

703. SLU
Quoting 693. ackee:

The wave the ECMWF devlops in a TD next week is this the frist time this seasons the ECmwf devlops a wave ?


Yes it is. It missed TD2 and Bertha.
Quoting 691. SLU:





1997. No NSD from July 27th to September 3rd.

1 Subtropical Storm 1 31 MAY- 2 JUN 45 1003 -
2 Tropical Storm ANA 30 JUN- 5 JUL 40 1000
3 Hurricane-1 BILL 11-13 JUL 65 986
4 Tropical Storm CLAUDETTE 13-16 JUL 40 1003
5 Hurricane-1 DANNY 16-27 JUL 70 984
6 Tropical Depression 6 17-19 JUL 30 0
7 Hurricane-3 ERIKA 3-19 SEP 110 946
8 Extratropical Storm FABIAN 4- 8 OCT 40 1004
9 Extratropical Storm GRACE 14-17 OCT 40 999

1997 was active at the start of the season bus as soon as El Niño took control we only got 3 more storms.Less than the early part something that is quite rare.
706. SLU
707. SLU
Quoting 705. allancalderini:

1997 was active at the start of the season bus as soon as El Niño took control we only got 3 more storms.Less than the early part something that is quite rare.


Yep. The only storm that developed from a wave was Erika. Typical of El Nino Seasons. A far cry from 1995, 1996 and 1998.
Quoting 707. SLU:



Yep. The only storm that developed from a wave was Erika. Typical of El Nino Seasons. A far cry from 1995, 1996 and 1998.
the Caribbean was really totaled during those three years.
30°C Gulf Water Temperatures. it looks like it is setting up more to be a homegrown year, considering how dry the Central Atlantic is compared to the Gulf. This may be one of those years where waves struggle to come across the Atlantic, but become better organize as they approach the islands, it may also be the year where with all the TCHP energy available in the Western Caribbean we would have to keep an eye in Sept. or Oct. for a storm to take advantage of that and become a strong hurricane.

Quoting 702. Doppler22:

Think of it this way...

We have already had two hurricanes.
Yeah, one was ugly...
But the other one was nice looking, was it not? (Better looking then any storm last season) Aaaaaaaand, it affected the US.
So in all reality, this season is somewhat better then last season in my eyes.




To be honest, Arthur gave me a bit of hope for this year, but that hope is slowly being eroded. A lot will have to change for us to see a hurricane in the Atlantic, let alone a major. I'm standing by my 10/3/1 but not with as much surety as at the beginning of the season.

I will gladly eat some crow if there is more activity when it's all said and done, but it has to be popcorn crow. I like my meat in bite-sized pieces.

Some rain for the northern islands. Hope Carib is happy ;-) The only thing I hope is that it doesn't affect this evening's CPLT20 final. Go Tridents!
The moisture from the north has almost connected with the moisture from the south around 35-40 degrees west longitude.

If these areas connect, it could cut off some of the dry air feeding into the Central Atlantic and give the waves a chance of developing.
Quoting 710. LemieT:



To be honest, Arthur gave me a bit of hope for this year, but that hope is slowly being eroded. A lot will have to change for us to see a hurricane in the Atlantic, let alone a major. I'm standing by my 10/3/1 but not with as much surety as at the beginning of the season.

I will gladly eat some crow if there is more activity when it's all said and done, but it has to be popcorn crow. I like my meat in bite-sized pieces.


Your prediction is not far off from mine: 10/5/2. I mentioned at the start of the season how I didn't think this would be a big Cape Verde Season and that we may probably only end up with 2 Cape Verde Hurricanes at most. I was mostly basing that off of the expectations that we would have an El Nino by now.
715. SLU
Quoting 712. LemieT:

Some rain for the northern islands. Hope Carib is happy ;-) The only thing I hope is that it doesn't affect this evening's CPLT20 final. Go Tridents!


Tomorrow is the reserved day if anything bad happens today
A closer look at the moisture from the north and south trying to shut the door on the dry air supply heading into the Central Atlantic.

yes some rain should be falling now in st. Kitts and Nevis at 9:51 A.M. The C.P.L Cricket final is 4 o'clock local time in St. Kitts, so I hope the rains will not affect the game. The rains should start to taper off close to the start of the and during the game.
what up with invest 95L NOT moving anywhere yet its so slow
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Lol
I wake up and see 95L looking the way it does
Not surprised at all



WHAT? Last night you said that the NHC agrees with you on a 50/50 chance of it developing. And now after the fact you say you are not surprised it looks the way it does. You make no sense.
0Z 15 day Euro ensembles- again normal to above normal across the entire tropical Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean. (Edit to add- MSLP)

Officially changing my unofficial and amateur probs of a Cristobal in August down to 25%.

The corpse of 94L is in radar range.
12Z SHIPS guidance takes 95L from 25 to 27 knots in 3 days, and a basic assumption to that statistical model is that 95L is already a tropical cyclone. 2 knots increase in 3 days, that is a huge thumbs down. 20% development probs seem a bit generous.

20 plus knots of shear from the SE, and marginal SSTs/OHC are the issues SHIPS is seeing.

Not doubting the highly trained specialists at NHC.
I don't give much hope to 95L, but the wave that had been moving from eastern Africa, which is now ready to move into the Atlantic. Since 95L was moving slowly, this new one may have a chance to move into the moisture of 95L. The steering currents are still pretty much to the west, so it would probably be a west tracker and be near the central or northern Antilles by next week. It may not look like much now.




24 hour rainfall estimate.
Shows the wide spread 2"-4" rainfall across S.W. Florida yesterday.
Yawn'...........
Quoting 724. Patrap:

Yawn'...........
Yep...Imagine if it was 83...If Alicia hadnt formed, I would have yawned for 6 months.
95L
Based on the GFS, PL18 (95L) has the better chance of doing something.
The GFS brings PL18 almost all the way across the Atlantic before killing it.

Quoting 720. EdMahmoud:

0Z 15 day Euro ensembles- again normal to above normal across the entire tropical Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean. (Edit to add- MSLP)

Officially changing my unofficial and amateur probs of a Cristobal in August down to 25%.

The corpse of 94L is in radar range.



Good for PR and adjacent islands that need it. The gov postponed the rationing of water thing after Bertha dumped a good deal of rain.That posponment is until the end of this month waiting to see if rain events move thru to lift more the lakes.
Ex 94L's wave axis moving into the Caribbean.





732. VR46L
Gro ...

Gonna send you on a trip down memory lane :)

From TWC website so I guess its weather related in some form ...maybe suitable clothing on a warm summer day on the beach ...Rare Pinups: Vintage Bikini Models (PHOTOS)
Op Euro not completely negative on what I think is the wave ahead of 95L or maybe 95L combining with the wave ahead. Actually closes a very weak low off. Then death by Hispaniola.

Probably would not use the name Cristobal based on the Euro, but could be TD #4...



Quoting 729. Tropicsweatherpr:



Good for PR and adjacent islands that need it. The gov postponed the rationing of water thing after Bertha dumped a good deal of rain.That posponment is until the end of this month waiting to see if rain events move thru to lift more the lakes.


Euro solution of a weak low crossing the Lesser Antilles and then dying in the mountains of La Republica Dominicana would probably bring rain to P.R. in 8 or 9 days.
735. beell


Oh, gee, look. That "thing" or what ever you call it is still hanging around the coast of western Africa into next week.
Karina has an interesting shape.

nice tropical wave will hit the water soon
Quoting EdMahmoud:
Op Euro not completely negative on what I think is the wave ahead of 95L or maybe 95L combining with the wave ahead. Actually closes a very weak low off. Then death by Hispaniola.

Probably would not use the name Cristobal based on the Euro, but could be TD #4...





Most likely 95L, because most the models drop P17L rather quickly.
Long time lurker here. I'm really amused by all of the moaning about how lousy this season has been and will be. I can only imagine how ya'll would have been if this were 1965 which at this point had produced just one tropical storm.
Quoting 732. VR46L:

Gro ...

Gonna send you on a trip down memory lane :)

From TWC website so I guess its weather related in some form ...maybe suitable clothing on a warm summer day on the beach ...Rare Pinups: Vintage Bikini Models (PHOTOS)


You do realize I have a weak heart??? :)
I have to agree with the NHC. There is a better than average chance of a less than normal Atlantic Hurricane season.

How's that for weather speak ?
Quoting 735. beell:



Oh, gee, look. That "thing" or what ever you call it is still hanging around the coast of western Africa into next week.


Indeed. Interesting things happen when the ITCZ combines with a monsoonal circulation.
Quoting 740. Grothar:



You do realize I have a weak heart??? :)
It will get stronger..The human body can preform miracles....Good morning.
And I thought I blocked all of the ones I needed to so that I could lurk and read about the trpics only. LOL
745. VR46L
Quoting 737. hurricanes2018:

nice tropical wave will hit the water soon


Check its convection its a large area but there is no real bite to it

716. Sfloridacat5 This sounds like good news for the tropics moisture is all we need
747. VR46L
Quoting 740. Grothar:



You do realize I have a weak heart??? :)


Sorry My Bad :)
NPS site info
GFS and ECMWF both kill off 95L in about 4 days, but a new circulation forms closer to the ITCZ.
That's something to watch for.
Quoting beell:


Oh, gee, look. That "thing" or what ever you call it is still hanging around the coast of western Africa into next week.
LOL. The "Thing" might not be a bad way to describe these waves. It could be an intermediate stage between invest and TD. :-)
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
NPS site info
GFS and ECMWF both kill off 95L in about 4 days, but a new circulation forms closer to the ITCZ.
That's something to watch for.
OK, fine. I'll stop slumping in my chair and start to keep a lookout for that. :-)
Quoting 732. VR46L:

Gro ...

Gonna send you on a trip down memory lane :)

From TWC website so I guess its weather related in some form ...maybe suitable clothing on a warm summer day on the beach ...Rare Pinups: Vintage Bikini Models (PHOTOS)
I would like to see some of TWC women in bikini,s.
Long time lurker here. I'm really amused by all of the moaning about how lousy this season has been and will be. I can only imagine how ya'll would have been if this were 1965 which at this point had produced just one tropical storm.


oh no.......the complaining and nashing of teeth...is as fun to watch as the wishcasting when it's busy

WHAT? Last night you said that the NHC agrees with you on a 50/50 chance of it developing. And now after the fact you say you are not surprised it looks the way it does. You make no sense



i often afgree with the nhc......never have they ever considered my opinion and agreed with me...LOL
Tough times in the tropics when even the GEM drops pouches left and right. Looks like the BAJA is in for a possible threat.
Anyone want to bet about the chances of 95L surviving as an invest/Thing?

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2014

...CORRECTION FOR SPECIAL FEATURES

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
NONE
757. VR46L
Quoting 752. hydrus:

I would like to see some of TWC women in bikini,s.


Trust you !!!
Wait a minute!!! 95L has an eye!!!

Wait a minute!!! My picture's not working!!! It's here though!!!

Quoting 754. ricderr:

I often agree with the nhc......never have they ever considered my opinion and agreed with me...LOL


Really? Now I feel special. They call me all the time...Mostly to tell me they disagree with me, but what do they know?

Oh, wait, nevermind...That's telemarketers I'm thinking of, not the NHC.
Quoting 757. VR46L:



Trust you !!!
Especially that Kait Parker!
The wave ahead of 95L should not be written off so easily, it has good vorticity at 850mb 700mb 500mb, with good convergence and divergence. The only thing left, is for it to build convection and ward off the dry air to the north and west. it is a large wave which will take time to consolidate.
The only chance of tropical development could come from a trough split off the NE FL coast next weekend and that appears to be the only chance for anything developing thru the rest of this month. My forecast for 5 to 7 named storms rages on ad 5 maybe a stretch this year.

It appears with this pattern coming in that Fall is about to make an appearance across the eastern US.




764. beell
Quoting 750. sar2401:

LOL. The "Thing" might not be a bad way to describe these waves. It could be an intermediate stage between invest and TD. :-)


Except the thing is stationary. The waves move through this feature and find deep layer moisture and vorticity as they pass through on their way to the wasteland of the central Atlantic. Failure to recognize the thing will lead to confusion.
Quoting 764. beell:



Except the thing is stationary. The waves move through this feature and find deep layer moisture and vorticity as they pass through on their way to the wasteland of the central Atlantic.


Yep. Pretty much what the GFS has been showing. Still find it an odd set up, not something I really recall seeing before.
big high there off the east coast
My chrystal ball says Cristobal 12N 38W.
Quoting beell:


Except the thing is stationary. The waves move through this feature and find deep layer moisture and vorticity as they pass through on their way to the wasteland of the central Atlantic. Failure to recognize the thing will lead to confusion.
Ah, I see now. So the Thing is kind of like a filling station for electric cars. Waves go there to get a bunch of amps so they can make their journey to oblivion.
770. beell
Quoting 765. StormJunkie:



Yep. Pretty much what the GFS has been showing. Still find it an odd set up, not something I really recall seeing before.


The oddity is in the strength, depth, and persistence of the feature.
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:


Current radar for Eufaula Alabama. The only water here is coming from my hose...

772. beell
Quoting 769. sar2401:

Ah, I see now. So the Thing is kind of like a filling station for electric cars. Waves go there to get a bunch of amps so they can make their journey to oblivion.


Works for me, sar!
Quoting 771. sar2401:



Current radar for Eufaula Alabama. The only water here is coming from my hose...


I wish there was a way I could funnel up some of this moisture your way.
774. beell
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N20W TO 21N20W MOVING W AT 5 KT. A
1012 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AT THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N20W. IN ADDITION...THE
WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED TROUGHING
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE N-NE ALONG THE W AFRICA
COAST TO 23N17W
. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
15N-17N BETWEEN 20W-22W.
if you see a spin on here at 37 west i still watch it unit no more spin to the tropical wave
Quoting stoormfury:
The wave ahead of 95L should not be written off so easily, it has good vorticity at 850mb 700mb 500mb, with good convergence and divergence. The only thing left, is for it to build convection and ward off the dry air to the north and west. it is a large wave which will take time to consolidate.


It has been mentioned and the ECMWF is hinting that P17L (the wave ahead of 95L) will die off, but eventually becoming the new circulation that forms S.E. of 95L down near the ITCZ.
If this is going to happen,it will be in about 4-5 days or so.
Quoting 776. Sfloridacat5:



It has been mentioned and the ECMWF is hinting that P17L (the wave ahead of 95L) will die off, but eventually becoming the new circulation that forms S.E. of 95L down near the ITCZ.
If this is going to happen,it will be in about 4-5 days or so.
The GEM is picking up on P17L as well, actually develops it, but weakens it as it approaches the islands.

Really? Now I feel special. They call me all the time...Mostly to tell me they disagree with me, but what do they know?

Oh, wait, nevermind...That's telemarketers I'm thinking of, not the NHC.


oh yeah....those telemarketers tell me i'm the greatest...that is until i tell them no.....
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
The only chance of tropical development could come from a trough split off the NE FL coast next weekend and that appears to be the only chance for anything developing thru the rest of this month. My forecast for 5 to 7 named storms rages on ad 5 maybe a stretch this year.

Only off the coast of NE Florida, eh? At least your forecast is still raging on. How did this forecast work out?

248. StormTrackerScott 6:13 PM CDT on August 12, 2014 Hide this comment.

I agree Jed, I like what I am seeing on the models for Friday across C FL as it appears a all day heavy rain event looks to be in the cards. I suspect some areas could get as much as 6" to 7" closer to the west coast of FL with 2" to 4" around Orlando. Front should stall around Gainesville and as that happens a pretty stout SW flow is going to set up across C FL pulling moisture off the Gulf with SST's in the upper 80's that should be a perfect receipe for significant rain areawide across C FL on Friday.
I just realized how out of touch the admin are here.Well not really..Been notice that a long time ago.
I don't have ear phones, so I watch TWC w/o audio on the treadmill at lunch time. I believe Vivian Brown has been at TWC since the late 1980s, she is a degreed met, not a BA in journo or communications who did the mostly online 60 hour course at Miss State that AMS says is good enough for a person to call themselves 'broadcast meteorologists', she is still pretty good looking, all I gotta say, her husband is a lucky man.

She partners sometimes with Jennifer Delgado. I do not know whether Delgado is a real met or not, but she is awfully good looking, and so it doesn't matter. OK, not a real met, has the MSU certificate and a bachelors in an unnamed major per TWC, but also has a BS in geosciences, or she does have a strong math and science background. Double positive. Looks and brains.

Carl Parker is a BA/MSU certificate guy, but rumor has it he is working on a BS. As a guy, I can only approve of people without math and science backgrounds doing weather if they are good looking women. (Most men are chauvinistic in this way, not all men admit it) Parker used to be on KPRC-TV 2 here in Houston. If he is working on a degree in real met, it might explain how he can handle the 'expert desk. Working around people like Cantore and the various specialist doctors can't hurt. Only the CBS affiliate in Houston has degreed mets. If I were a met student, I'd be furious at AMS for the certificate, there are more met students than met jobs, and a TV station in San Angelo or Boise would be superior to a cubicle at $30k at AccuWx or not working in the field at all.

Stephanie Abrams, not model good looks, but I like watching. Except she is on in the morning now. I bet she is fun to watch with Al Roker. Roker is a real met, BTW. I believe Abrams degree is from FSU. FSU has a good model page for TC genesis and phase diagrams.

Apologies to any female WU-ers for noticing attractive women on the TV channel that reflects my interests. And you have Sam Champion as a MSU 60 hour certificate holder for your eye candy.

I'm happy Dave Schwartz is back. Not eye candy at all, but he brings nostalgia and a fun personality.
Hey I'm back
I had to go out

Anyway new 12 sfc charts
Show 95L low dissipating

The AOI near 37W is association with a tropical wave and tropical low still going good moving W

Also former 94L looking good at the moment
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
I wish there was a way I could funnel up some of this moisture your way.
Me too. The whole area is going to burst into flames if we don't get some rain soon. There's rain in the Midwest, there's rain in South Dakota, there's even rain in central Texas. Florida is the only place with rain in the Southeast. I've pretty much come to the conclusion that Florida getting rain means I get nothing.
We now have 91E
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 782. wunderkidcayman:

Hey I'm back
I had to go out

Anyway new 12 sfc charts
Show 95L low dissipating

The AOI near 37W is association with a tropical wave and tropical low still going good moving W

Also former 94L looking good at the moment

I'm doing what I should have done yesterday night.Good bye.
The GFS has been miserable this year predicting genesis, often in the same area, at the same time range.

It is good to see the Euro on 95L or the wave ahead (24 hour time steps on the PSU MSLP and 850 mb vort page makes it hard to tell for sure), and if the Euro were a tad wrong about it committing suicide over Hispaniola, then that could be my unofficial amateur 25% chance of Cristobal in August, and possibly an Eastern Gulf-SE USA threat for the beginning of September.

Then the whole board would be happy. In the meantime, I hope Dr. Masters enjoys the entire weekend without another post, as nothing that important will happen, at least in the tropics, before Monday.

See text on SPC outlooks, but no risks, and HPC graphics show some decent rains, but nothing suggesting Islip or Detroit.

Quoting EdMahmoud:
Roker is a real met, BTW.


No, he's not. He "double-majored in graphic design and broadcasting/journalism". Link
Quoting 783. sar2401:

Me too. The whole area is going to burst into flames if we don't get some rain soon. There's rain in the Midwest, there's rain in South Dakota, there's even rain in central Texas. Florida is the only place with rain in the Southeast. I've pretty much come to the conclusion that Florida getting rain means I get nothing.

The Orlando area has had little rain recently. At least my area of it. I'm off to start the rounds with the sprinkler in the yard. Weird summer and even weirder hurricane season (again).
Quoting 790. sar2401:



No, he's not. He "double-majored in graphic design and broadcasting/journalism". Link


Oh. I knew he went to SUNY-Oswego, and assumed he was a met.
Quoting 788. EdMahmoud:

The GFS has been miserable this year predicting genesis, often in the same area, at the same time range.

It is good to see the Euro on 95L or the wave ahead (24 hour time steps on the PSU MSLP and 850 mb vort page makes it hard to tell for sure), and if the Euro were a tad wrong about it committing suicide over Hispaniola, then that could be my unofficial amateur 25% chance of Cristobal in August, and possibly an Eastern Gulf-SE USA threat for the beginning of September.

Then the whole board would be happy. In the meantime, I hope Dr. Masters enjoys the entire weekend without another post, as nothing that important will happen, at least in the tropics, before Monday.

See text on SPC outlooks, but no risks, and HPC graphics show some decent rains, but nothing suggesting Islip or Detroit.




From the looks of that, the FL rainy season is already starting to transition its way out. Granted, that's only the 3 day forecast.
Quoting 757. VR46L:



Trust you !!!
I, am trustworthy.
95L looks terrible and most likely won't develop.
Synopsis for 95L and other systems: Link
95L is not looking so well and most likely won't develop

Synopsis for 95L and other systems: Link
Quoting 793. HurrMichaelOrl:



From the looks of that, the FL rainy season is already starting to transition its way out. Granted, that's only the 3 day forecast.


I don't think so, ts just a weird year, in fact the drier arriving next week will be coming from the tropics. We should be glad it hasn't been much less active of a rainy season than it has been because normally the state of rainfall coverage and deep moisture in the tropics is directly related to how active the rainy season is here. The extremely below normal amount of moisture and instability over the tropics this summer hasn't affected us more than a day or two of dry weather for the most part. Next week will be the first time it impacts us for a long while.

Also, never before has the rainy season ended in August, historically it varies between the end of September and the middle of October. If anything, it will likely be wetter than average for September and October based on what short term climate models have been trending.
.
Quoting 779. sar2401:

Only off the coast of NE Florida, eh? At least your forecast is still raging on. How did this forecast work out?

248. StormTrackerScott 6:13 PM CDT on August 12, 2014 Hide this comment.

I agree Jed, I like what I am seeing on the models for Friday across C FL as it appears a all day heavy rain event looks to be in the cards. I suspect some areas could get as much as 6" to 7" closer to the west coast of FL with 2" to 4" around Orlando. Front should stall around Gainesville and as that happens a pretty stout SW flow is going to set up across C FL pulling moisture off the Gulf with SST's in the upper 80's that should be a perfect receipe for significant rain areawide across C FL on Friday.


Worked out pretty good for the west side of FL and on the northside of orlando. 3" to 5" on the west coast of FL with 2" to 4" on the northside of orlando by the Apopka area. Thanks again Sar.
Quoting 797. Jedkins01:


I don't think so, ts just a weird year, in fact the drier arriving next week will be coming from the tropics. We should be glad it hasn't been much less active of a rainy season than it has been because normally the state of rainfall coverage and deep moisture in the tropics is directly related to how active the rainy season is here. The extremely below normal amount of moisture and instability over the tropics this summer hasn't affected us more than a day or two of dry weather for the most part. Next week will be the first time it impacts us for a long while.

Also, never before has the rainy season ended in August, historically it varies between the end of September and the middle of October. If anything, it will likely be wetter than average for September and October based on what short term climate models have been trending.


Agreed Jed, it appears a trough split set up will occur of the SE Coast next weekend per GFS causing a very moist SW Flow to take hold of FL again.



Infact over the last 5 months many areas of C & S FL have seen 30" to 50" of rain.

What cracks me up is everyone is looking to Africa to get a system this year and it just isn't going to happen. Folks need to look close to home especially next weekend.