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Iselle Dissipates; Rare Emergency Warning for Tropical Storm Halong in Japan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:59 PM GMT on August 09, 2014

Tropical Storm Iselle has dissipated after making landfall along the southeast shore of Hawaii's Big Island near 9 am EDT (3 am HST) Friday as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. Iselle is only the second tropical storm on record to hit the Big Island, and was the strongest. Iselle brought torrential rains of up to 4" per hour to the Big Island; two locations received over 14" of rain. Iselle did considerable damage on the Big Island, downing trees, knocking down power lines, and damaging a few homes in Hawaiian Paradise Park in Puna. About 22,000 customers lost power during the height of the storm on the Big Island; power had been restored to all but 9,000 by Saturday morning. About 1900 customers lost power on Oahu, and 8,000 on Maui.


Figure 1. Damage to power lines on the Big Island on August 8, 2014, from Tropical Storm Iselle. Image credit: Hawaiian Electric Companies.

Some peak wind gusts and rainfall amounts from Iselle:

72 mph gust at Oahu Forest mesonet site on Oahu (2300')
68 mph gust at Kaneola, HI (815')
91 mph gust at Mauna Kea on the Big Island (13,700')
62 mph gust at Lanai
61 mph gust at Kula, Maui
57 mph gust at Molokai
54 mph gust at Hilo Airport

14.51", Kulani NWR
14.28", Saddle Quarry
13.90", Glenwood
12.52", Hakalu
12.19", Pua Akala
3.61", Hilo Airport

Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has an interesting post showing how Iselle's rainfall on the Big Island fell in climatologically favored regions that receive heavy rains at other times of year.


Figure 2. True-color MODIS image of Hurricane Iselle from 23:15 UTC (7:15 pm EDT) August 7, 2014. At the time, the outer spiral bands of the 80 mph Category 1 hurricane were spreading over the Big Island of Hawaii. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 3. Score: Mauna Loa 1, Iselle 0. The twin 13,000' peaks of the Big Island, Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea, seriously disrupted Tropical Storm Iselle as its center crossed the southern portion of the Big Island, as seen in this true-color MODIS image from approximately 21:15 UTC (5:15 pm EDT) August 8, 2014. At the time, Iselle had top winds of 50 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Hurricane Julio expected to skirt Hawaii
Hurricane Julio continues to steadily weaken, and was a Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds at 11 am EDT Saturday morning. Satellite loops show that the cloud tops of Julio's heavy thunderstorms have warmed and the eye is no longer distinct. The storm should be able to take advantage of light to moderate wind shear and marginally warm sea surface temperatures near 26°C and maintain at least Category 1 status until Sunday morning. Fortunately, it is looking increasingly likely that Julio will not have a major impact on the Hawaiian Islands. The Saturday morning runs of our top track models all predicted that the center of Julio would pass 100 - 400 miles northeast of the Hawaiian Islands on Sunday and Monday. On this path, Julio's core of heavy rains and wind would miss the islands, and high surf would be the main impact of the storm. The edge of Julio's cone of uncertainly for Sunday no longer lies over the islands.



Figure 4. Super Typhoon Genevieve as seen by the VIIRS instrument on the Suomi satellite on 01:30 UTC August 8, 2014. In the infrared image (top), note how the temperature in the eye was as warm as 25°C, while the coldest cloud tops of the eyewall thunderstorms were -80°C, indicating that they had risen very high into the atmosphere where the air is cold. At the time, Genevieve was a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds. Image credit: Dan Lindsey, NOAA/CIRA.

Typhoon Genevieve not a threat to land
What was formerly Hurricane Genevieve is now Typhoon Genevieve, after the storm crossed the International Date Line from east to west early Thursday. There is no difference between a North Pacific hurricane and a typhoon other than its location--if the storm is west of the Date Line, it is called a typhoon, and if it is east of the Date Line, it is called a hurricane. Genevieve put on a spectacular display of rapid intensification, going from a tropical storm with 60 mph winds to a Category 5 super typhoon with 160 mph winds in just 27 hours, from 09 UTC August 6 to 12 UTC August 7. Genevieve spent 24 hours as a Category 5 storm, but weakened to a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds as of Saturday at 8 am EDT. Satellite images show that Genevieve is still an impressive storm with a large eye surrounded by intense eyewall thunderstorms with cold cloud tops. Fortunately, Genevieve is not expected to threaten any land areas.


Figure 5. Radar image of Tropical Storm Halong nearing the coast of Japan at 9:55 am EDT (22:55 JST) August 9, 2014. Halong had 70 mph winds at the time. Image credit: Japan Met Agency.

Rare emergency warning for Tropical Storm Halong in Japan
In the Western Pacific, slow-moving Tropical Storm Halong weakened to a 70 mph tropical storm Saturday, but is dumping dangerous heavy rains into Southern Japan. A rare "emergency weather warning" (tokubetsu keihō) for the Mie Prefecture was issued on Saturday by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). Hakusan in the Mie Prefecture had nearly 17 inches of rain on Saturday, breaking its all-time 24-hour rainfall record set just last year in Typhoon Man-yi. The Sukumo observation site in Kōchi prefecture set an all-time calendar-day record rainfall today of 327.5 mm (12.89 inches) with records dating back to 1943. Rainfall rates have been 1 to 2 inches pre hour across most of Kōchi Prefecture on Saturday. As of 9 pm JST Saturday, the center of Halong was 60 km (35 mi) south of Cape Ashizuri, Kōchi Prefecture; the Shimizu observation site, 5 miles northwest of that cape, clocked an 83-mph gust at 9:23pm JST (8:23am US EDT). That's the highest gust anywhere in Japan (including the smaller southern islands) so far Saturday their time. Farther east, Cape Muroto clocked a sustained wind of 27.0 m/s (60 mph) at 9:58pm JST (8:58am US EDT), the top sustained wind for all of Japan today. Source: JMA (thanks to TWC's Nick Wiltgen for these stats.) Satellite loops show that Halong is a very large system, and the rains from this massive, slow-moving storm are going to cause serious flooding problems in Japan.

The Atlantic is quiet
In the Atlantic, there are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis predicts development over the next five days. The African Monsoon will crank out strong tropical waves that will emerge from the coast of Africa on Wednesday and next Saturday. The peak part of the Atlantic hurricane season usually begins in mid-August, so we will need to start paying extra attention to these tropical waves.

Jeff Masters
more iselle
more iselle
more iselle
more iselle

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thought this was something worth sharing. GFS doing some good on this side of the world.

Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
817 AM EDT Sat Aug 09 2014

Valid 00Z Sun Aug 10 2014 - 00Z Sun Aug 17 2014

Please refer to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) for
the latest information and updates concerning 'Julio'.

Overview and Model Preferences...
9/00Z ECENS/GEFS guidance seemed to cover the Pacific
synoptic-scale pattern and features of interest without much
fanfare through day 7. In my opinion, thought the outcome of
'Iselle' from 100W to 160W (over the last 10 days worth of
forecasts) gives the GFS some 'deserved' credence to the overall
broad-scale forecast sequence---past and present. And more
importantly, that which lies ahead for the mid-latitude Pacific.

Broad but formidable upper-level longwave anchoring invof the
eastern Aleutians extends equatorward to approximately 30N 160W
and serves as steering guide for remnant Subtropical moisture and
dynamics through day 7. More recent 9/00Z deterministic details of
the interaction between Subtropics and mid latitudes were
muddled--though the mid-latitude forecast aloft from 4-5 days
ago---and even back 10 days has been right-on with the upper-level
longwave trough in the north central Pacific and anomalous upper
low invof southern Bering Sea.

This mid-latitude feature will be a key factor going forward for
at least the next 8 days across the mid-latitude Pacific, and
anticipate the Subtropical moisture plume will have lingering
effects--not only for the Subtropics--but also for the western
Canadian shoreline and AK Panhandle periodically as mid-level warm
advection precipitation events develop through time.

For Hawai'i
Active weather in place through the weekend---mainly western half
of the state---with remnant dynamics from 'Iselle' stalled invof
20N 160W. Thought the 9/00z deterministic GFS handled the sensible
weather features for days 2-3 and directed any effects towards
east-facing and north-facing shores and slopes--with a track
paralleling the entire chain.

Vojtesak
Good Sunday morning everyone from Europe where Ex-Bertha is currently merging with her stormy sisters Thekla und Ursula. Our WU-blog-forecaster Sar yesterday night predicted an uneventful exchange of airmasses today for my place, lol. Now that the assessment of Estofex (European Storm Forecast Experiment) is out we'll see what happens. German National Weatherservice DWD is quite bullish with its warnings as well. Wait and see what may develop over our heads later today.




Storm Forecast, Valid: Sun 10 Aug 2014 06:00 to Mon 11 Aug 2014 06:00 UTC, Issued: Sun 10 Aug 2014 04:36
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE
Levels 1 and 2 were issued for southern UK, parts of France, Belgium, Netherlands, Luxemburg, western Germany and southern Scandinavia mainly for severe convective wind gusts and tornadoes, but also large hail.
A level 1 was issued for parts of France, Germany, Poland, Czech Republic, Switzerland, northern Italy and western Balkan mainly for large hail.

SYNOPSIS
Remnants of ex-tropical cyclone Bertha reach the southwestern UK this morning. It is undergoing cyclogenesis in a baroclinic environment and will assume classic extratropical cyclone features with well defined fronts. The occlusion point is predicted to move from Wales to Yorkshire and then northward, while the surface cold front will push eastward into France, reaching Germany by 21Z (GFS 18Z run), approaching Poland, Sweden and Norway by 03-06Z the next day. The warm front is advected northward from Belgium at the start of the period and should have reached central Denmark by 18Z. The cold front is much better defined at mid levels, running ahead of the surface cold front, enabling a narrow zone with dry/cold mid levels over moist low levels harbouring potential instability. Indeed, the GFS model shows this zone to have a CAPE similar to the warm sector. The magnitude of MLCAPE is not so large, however: 300 to 700 J/kg. This is caused by mid level lapse rates hardly better than neutral in range of the cold front. Deeper into eastern France and Germany steeper lapse rates are found. The cold front is supported by the advection of a PV anomaly which should cause strong lifting over southern UK, NW France, Benelux, NW Germany and southern Scandinavia.
The situation allows for highly organized convective storms thanks to the strong linear forcing and the presence of strong vertical wind shear.

DISCUSSION
...United Kingdom, northwestern France...
In the morning hours the low reaches land with a few hundred J/kg predicted by GFS, a lobe of PV, the split-level cold front and very strong 0-1 km vertical shear of 12-17 m/s with large circular model hodographs in low levels. Higher resolution WRF models place 500 m/s of 0-3 km SREH east of the occlusion point. This helps organize storms into supercells. Cloud bases will be very low, which together with the shear environment is favorable for tornado development. The threat continues for half the afternoon. As low-level shear is similar over NW France, with >250 m/s SREH, tornado chances will be elevated there as well. The linear forcing at the cold front could mean that a linear convective system may already form, with bowing line segments posing risks of severe wind gusts.

...northern France, Belgium, Netherlands into Germany and Denmark...
A large area with predicted 0-1 km shear vector magnitudes of 15-18 m/s, 0-6 km shear of 20-25 m/s and very humid, neutral lapse rate airmass with BL mixing ratio 10-12 g/kg and MLCAPE locally over 500 J/kg is found along and east of the cold front. The mean wind speed at 1-4 km altitude is just short of 25 m/s. The lifting action of the PV intrusion in synergy with CAPE and favorable shear environment should lead to a fast-moving squall line with bow echo structures, with widespread damaging wind gusts (generally 20-30 m/s). Locally very severe gusts may be observed in some bow echoes or in supercell downdrafts given also the high precipitation load in this environment and also the mixing in of mid level dry air behind the upper cold front creates a strong downdraft potential(delta-theta-e 15-20K).
A moderate tornado potential is present with such strong low-level shear. Tornados may be produced from embedded mesocyclones in a linear system or from discrete supercells ahead of the line. An isolated strong tornado may occur.
Isolated large hail may be observed, the low cloud bases and limited upper level buoyancy are counteracting the otherwise supportive environment with mesocyclonic updrafts.
The best forcing passes over Netherlands and northwesternmost Germany. Towards central Germany, weaker forcing is present, but similar shear conditions, with less strong flow. Higher LCLs and steeper lapse rates contribute to better chances for large hail, while severe gusts and tornadoes are also quite likely.
Meanwhile (18Z), the warm front over S/E Denmark seems to be associated with low level convergence and can trigger high precipitation storm clusters and discrete supercells, given 300 m/s of 0-3 km SREH predicted (GFS 18Z run). Later the cold front squall line will come in from the southwest with mainly severe gust chances. These threats continue during the night into Norway and Sweden, but as CAPE dwindles and parcels become elevated the threats subside gradually. ....

Whole discussion see link above.


Current rainfall radar.


Temperature of cloud tops.


Significant tornado parameter this afternoon. Source.

Ex-hurricane Bertha brings high winds and rain across UK
BBC News, 10 August 2014 Last updated at 11:32 GMT
carib. runner? kind of wierd yesterday jbs free clip he mentioned he thought the carib was going to be alot more favorable in 7-10 days hope everyone has a nice sunday
Typhoon Halong heads out to sea, leaving six dead and dozens injured
Japan Times, Kyodo, Staff Report, Aug 10, 2014
A powerful typhoon that brought strong winds and heavy rain to western Japan moved out to sea Sunday afternoon, leaving at least six people dead and dozens injured.
According to public broadcaster NHK, more than 660,000 people across the country were ordered or urged to evacuate due to Typhoon Halong, and about 70 people were reported injured as of Sunday afternoon. ...
Quoting 496. JLPR2:

Well now, before going to bed I'll leave this here:
Behold!


Goodnight.
THE SAL WILL GOBBLE IT UP IN A FEW DAYS AND IT WILL GO POOF


watching tropical low at 10% right now.. new update coming soon at 8am
Morning all. Happy Sunday! Nice looking wave rolling off Africa...

508. JRRP
Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 6 h
MJO in phase 2 for a while: 2nd-best phase for tropical Atlantic cyclone formation. Mid-August. Bears watching. :)
still going up!!
510. SLU
Very favourable upper environment available to the wave as it enters the Caribbean so dry air will be the main issue here .... again.

Quoting 492. sar2401:

I see shades of Bertha again.


Looks like more junk low tracking to me. Maybe a weak TD prior to death by the Carib. Still a long way out though.
512. JRRP
nice tropical low here at 1009MB
514. JRRP
515. JRRP
Atlas Buoy
12.000 N 23.000 W

Once this get's in the Caribbean, it's gonna get interesting.
Quoting 516. Climate175:

Once this get's in the Caribbean, it's gonna get interesting.


As said, it's a long way out...But my best guess is that unless it manages to pick up a real head of steam before entering the Carib...Then it just won't survive. Yet another rubbish rain shower that will hopefully manage to hold together enough to bring rains to the islands.

520. JRRP
Quoting 518. StormJunkie:



As said, it's a long way out...But my best guess is that unless it manages to pick up a real head of steam before entering the Carib...Then it just won't survive. Yet another rubbish rain shower that will hopefully manage to hold together enough to bring rains to the islands.


The structure is the impressive and it's spin is nice, this could be an Invest very soon. signs are saying the Caribbean is getting more favorable then it was in the season.
523. SLU
Eric Blake says it has a shot.
I am waiting for 8am update
526. FOREX
Quoting 507. GatorWX:

Morning all. Happy Sunday! Nice looking wave rolling off Africa...


I see you guys open against Idaho. 'm familiar with them being a Boise fan. They will play you tough in the first half but then the Gators should pummel them in the second.
A "chance" and "It's going to get interesting once this gets in the Carib" are two vastly different things. I haven't seen the road signs that say the Carib is more favorable ATM; if that is where it ends up...which is the best guess right now.
528. JRRP
06z
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure system is
located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the Cape
Verde Islands. This disturbance is producing a large area of
cloudiness and disorganized showers and thunderstorms, and some slow
development of this system is possible over the next several days
while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

It is up to 30% now.
I am still waiting for a 8am update
New TWO goes up
10/30%

I suspect it would be tagged 94L within the next 48hrs

000
ABNT20 KNHC 101157
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure system is
located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the Cape
Verde Islands. This disturbance is producing a large area of
cloudiness and disorganized showers and thunderstorms, and some slow
development of this system is possible over the next several days
while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

532. JRRP
30%

Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure system is
located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the Cape
Verde Islands. This disturbance is producing a large area of
cloudiness and disorganized showers and thunderstorms, and some slow
development of this system is possible over the next several days
while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
its went up to 30%
Quoting 526. FOREX:

I see you guys open against Idaho. 'm familiar with them being a Boise fan. They will play you tough in the first half but then the Gators should pummel them in the second.


I can't see it being too much worse than last year lol. That was rough!
Quoting 533. hurricanes2018:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure system is
located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the Cape
Verde Islands. This disturbance is producing a large area of
cloudiness and disorganized showers and thunderstorms, and some slow
development of this system is possible over the next several days
while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
its went up to 30%
yes, something indeed to watch
537. FOREX
Quoting 536. Climate175:


YES BABY!!!! COME TO PAPA!!!!!!
538. JRRP


rest up 2018 next wk we will need your A game a low rider into the carib. and gfs is all over it.
540. FOREX
Quoting 538. JRRP:




Nothing yet, but it's early.
something to watch in the Caribbean



t.storms and rain with a tropical wave and weak spin to it to.
Quoting 519. momof4girls:

THE DUST IN THE CARIB AND ENTIRE ATLANTIC WILL GOBBLE EVERYTHING UP AGAIN OVER THE NEXT 2 MONTHS AS USUAL . NO SIGNS OF IT LEAVING
its time for you to go back to bed..
Quoting 541. hurricanes2018:

something to watch in the Caribbean



t.storms and rain with a tropical wave and weak spin to it to.
Pretty good vort.



very good vort with that tropical low we have a yellow x on it to
So is everyone excited to hear "Trash low", ad nauseam, for the next two weeks?
Quoting 518. StormJunkie:



As said, it's a long way out...But my best guess is that unless it manages to pick up a real head of steam before entering the Carib...Then it just won't survive. Yet another rubbish rain shower that will hopefully manage to hold together enough to bring rains to the islands.




Especially the Northern islands now... way BEHIND the southern islands in my opinion regarding the rain.
Quoting 547. CaribBoy:



Especially the Northern islands now... way BEHIND the southern islands in my opinion regarding the rain.


Sadly, this one looks to stay south. Maybe that will change some in the coming days. Should it somehow manage to gain some strength and maintain it across the MDR; maybe it will gain a little more latitude. Wait and see as always.
Somewhat interesting the T. wave approaching T. Tobago, however, it is too close to SA.
But it already looks like another fast crossing at 13-15N...... :/
NHC says no mention of unfavorable conditions, they say slow development is possible.
Aug. 12th, 2004
Tropical Storm Bonnie and Hurricane Charley


Good Morning. I see the GFS has latched on to our wave as has it becoming a TD before dying in the caribbean. couple of things to note. SAL will still be the problem once again. the second question is how strong will trade winds be in the caribbean. the wave is currently large which is good. if it can mantain itself unlike bertha which crumbled apart, this might be the case where we get something that survives the poor MDR conditions and does something further west perhaps in the central caribbean. Lily of 2002? we should get an invest soon
Quoting 548. StormJunkie:



Sadly, this one looks to stay south. Maybe that will change some in the coming days. Should it somehow manage to gain some strength and maintain it across the MDR; maybe it will gain a little more latitude. Wait and see as always.


:-)
556. JRRP
Eric Webb ‏@webberweather 3 min
NHC already circled the AEW just off Africa, but I think next 2 AEWs behind it are more serious threats @ development


here we go
Getting better organized.
559. FOREX
Maybe we will get a blob alert from Grothar today. Hope he is feeling better. It's starting to get interesting, we need him now.


Another long, confusing, aggravating, dry aired week...
Quoting 554. wunderweatherman123:

Good Morning. I see the GFS has latched on to our wave as has it becoming a TD before dying in the caribbean. couple of things to note. SAL will still be the problem once again. the second question is how strong will trade winds be in the caribbean. the wave is currently large which is good. if it can mantain itself unlike bertha which crumbled apart, this might be the case where we get something that survives the poor MDR conditions and does something further west perhaps in the central caribbean. Lily of 2002? we should get an invest soon
I remember in the previous run the Gfs have it develop until the gulf of Mexico before making its way into Mexico.
Quoting 531. wunderkidcayman:

New TWO goes up
10/30%

I suspect it would be tagged 94L within the next 48hrs

000
ABNT20 KNHC 101157
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure system is
located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the Cape
Verde Islands. This disturbance is producing a large area of
cloudiness and disorganized showers and thunderstorms, and some slow
development of this system is possible over the next several days
while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


If dry air and sal does not penetrate in the next 48 hours then I agree. 20% is when its usually upgrade to invest.
Quoting 547. CaribBoy:



Especially the Northern islands now... way BEHIND the southern islands in my opinion regarding the rain.
If it can strength in the MDR then it will move more north. TBH I believe this month we will get Cristobal, Dolly and Edouard.We might get Fay at the really end.
Quoting 561. allancalderini:

I remember in the previous run the Gfs have it develop until the gulf of Mexico before making its way into Mexico. If dry air and sal does not penetrate in the next 48 hours then I agree. 20% is when its usually upgrade to invest. If it can strength in the MDR then it will move more north. TBH I believe this month we will get Cristobal, Dolly and Edouard.We might get Fay at the really end.
it wont strengthen in the MDR... it has to survive it. plenty of tropical systems in certain years just have to survive to get to conditions more favorable. As the case is, dry air and ssts will be the problem but our wave will be greeted by an MJO pulse so I think it's got a better chance of surviving then bertha did. We'll see. its mid august. Let the fun begin
When Bertha first got orange circle


When Bertha first got 10% in 2 day



When our Pre-Invest 94L got its first orange and 10% within 2 day

Quoting 560. JrWeathermanFL:



Another long, confusing, aggravating, dry aired week...


Hope then disappointment just like Bertha....
Quoting 564. CaribBoy:



Hope then disappointment just like Bertha....
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Lili good analogue. weak until the western caribbean then goes off. who knows. lily was in late september anyways. this is mid august
Quoting CaribBoy:


Hope then disappointment just like Bertha....

Well this one seems to want to go further S than Bertha and stay in the Caribbean so this one ain't for you
you got yours from Bertha the one after you might get lucky but this one looks like it will be a Carib low rider


maybe invest soon
The 06z NAM has the next wave entering the Caribbean taking a more northly track than the last wave. It looks like it might get into the Southern Atlantic/Southern Bahamas.

Unfortunately it will have to cross D.R./Haiti to do it. That's never a good thing for a developing system.

But this could possibly allow it to reach Florida and move into the GOM where conditions are a lot more favorable for development.
Quoting 568. Sfloridacat5:

The 06z NAM has the next wave entering the Caribbean taking a more northly track than the last wave. It looks like it might get into the Southern Atlantic/Southern Bahamas.

Unfortunately it will have to cross D.R./Haiti to do it. That's never a good thing for a developing system.

But this could possibly allow it to reach Florida and move into the GOM where conditions are a lot more favorable for development.
Waves tend to have more chance of survival when crossing Hispañola than td , ts or hurricanes have.
570. JRRP


double post..dang blasted WU..get your website fixed..
Good Morning all..

nothing for the next two weeks?



Pretty stormy! Fresh Ex-Bertha Video from Aylesbury, northwest of London.


Current lightning UK.


Sat view a little earlier. Source UK Met Office.


New Mesoscale Discussion.

If you want to watch the promising new tropical wave off Africa and Ex-Bertha on the same site, go here to this loop (if you have a nice screen and a bit power in your engine).

574. JRRP
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 9 min
Pattern in the atlantic will grow more favorable now. Summer coming for last 1-2 weeks August in east, tropics get more active
The CV system better be packing a suit case full of moisture, because it won't find any in the Central Atlantic. In addition, the Eastern Caribbean is bone dry at the moment. The wave entering the Caribbean at the moment has nothing to work with until it gets much further west.
Quoting 572. ncstorm:

Good Morning all..

nothing for the next two weeks?


You tell em Nc !
Quoting ncstorm:
Good Morning all..

nothing for the next two weeks?



Yeah, two days ago a "tropical expert" on T.V. said that we wouldn't see any tropical development until the end of the month.

578. ryang
We have 94L.

AL, 94, 2014081012, , BEST, 0, 111N, 205W, 20, 1011, LO
We have 94L


AL, 94, 2014080912, , BEST, 0, 111N, 154W, 20, 1012, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2014080918, , BEST, 0, 111N, 168W, 20, 1012, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2014081000, , BEST, 0, 111N, 181W, 20, 1012, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2014081006, , BEST, 0, 111N, 193W, 20, 1011, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2014081012, , BEST, 0, 111N, 205W, 20, 1011, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 180, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,


Quoting 570. JRRP:




Just yesterday people were using the GFS as an indicator that nothing was showing for the next couple of weeks..the models can switch easily like a light switch and show nothing one day and then show a storm the next day and vice versa..we need more research pumped into our weather models to improve forecasting skills..
Quoting 578. ryang:

We have 94L.

AL, 94, 2014081012, , BEST, 0, 111N, 205W, 20, 1011, LO

Looks like we should be getting some spaghetti models soon and intensity models.
Quoting 577. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, two days ago a "tropical expert" on T.V. said that we wouldn't see any tropical development until the end of the month.




its a tricky science..
I Predict We Will Here This Within A Day or Two With The African AOI.
584. JRRP
Quoting ncstorm:




Just yesterday people were using the GFS as an indicator that nothing was showing for the next couple of weeks..the models can switch easily like a light switch and show nothing one day and then show a storm the next day and vice versa..we need more research pumped into our weather models to improve forecasting skills..

exactly
Quoting 570. JRRP:






OMG lol


Moves WNW, then turns west for the islands.
Probably runs into the DR eventually XP

Looks like it'll separate itself from the ITCZ sooner than Bertha.
588. JRRP
589. ryang
it's amazing how fast things can change in the tropics. At the very least, 94L can make conditions more moist for the waves to follow.


What lieth ahead.
Quoting 588. JRRP:




Caribbean Cruiser indeed, lol. But yes, it's very early to tell.
Quoting 589. ryang:

it's amazing how fast things can change in the tropics. At the very least, 94L can make conditions more moist for the waves to follow.


Thats what Bertha and the wave behind it were supposed to do. But then the SAL burst again.

The desert doesn't wait for waves.
593. JRRP
Quoting CaribBoy:


OMG lol

well just for entertainment jejeje
Quoting 592. JrWeathermanFL:



Thats what Bertha and the wave behind it were supposed to do. But then the SAL burst again.

The desert doesn't wait for waves.


I'm tired of that desert...
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Well this one seems to want to go further S than Bertha and stay in the Caribbean so this one ain't for you
you got yours from Bertha the one after you might get lucky but this one looks like it will be a Carib low rider


Still a week out but if it gets into the sourhern caribbean it will have to deal with extremely dry stable conditions. It has been that way all summer. It will suck whatever it is dry. Been happening to every wave that enters the Caribbean.
Quoting 577. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, two days ago a "tropical expert" on T.V. said that we wouldn't see any tropical development until the end of the month.


All these professionals making predictions, no clue, too many variables to predict more than a couple of days out. Actually the season is coming along quite normally, if not a tad above normal. If these systems were all developing real close to home, I'd say slow season ahead, but they are way out there. Once things calm down, shear and dust, think we'll see a very busy 6-8 weeks, maybe starting later August. Everyone could be at risk this season especially as storms seem to slingshot around in a few weeks. Might look like a pool table soon. I put East Florida (not a panhandle year), Carolinas and LA at the greatest risk for the U.S. this year. I say no less than two U.S. landfalls, you know Florida is the place to place your bets, great odds there. Just my opinions.
Quoting ryang:
it's amazing how fast things can change in the tropics. At the very least, 94L can make conditions more moist for the waves to follow.


We said the same thing about Bettha.
599. FOREX
94L floater is up.
600. ackee
Good morning seem like the Epac and western pacfic has quiet down and the atlantic is waking up let's see if 94L will devlopment and be something intresting to track
94L looks like it might be a fish.
Question, lets just say and I know we are a long way out, but if 94L takes the southern route and it in enters the Caribbean as a hurricane and can maintain its self would it have the chance to go through the yucatan or stay south?
94L will be one to watch, any wave this vigorous is worth watching, but it will struggle to become anything strong with the dry, stable air out there. We'll see if it can survive into the Caribbean and maybe develop there. Of course, it may not even go into the Caribbean, we shouldn't lock it in as a low rider from just a couple model runs.

Still need a lot of rain

Good Morning Folks. The Blog will explode again (may be) with 94 L
Quoting 604. CaribBoy:

Still need a lot of rain



Beautiful coast view, Which is the place?
Lol, can you imagine the blog if this happened? This is one of 20 GFS ensemble members from the 6z run. Major hurricane into New Orleans. NOT to be taken seriously, but it does show what could happen if a system had favorable conditions in that area.



You can see another member taking a strong hurricane in south of the TX/Mexico border here-
Quoting 606. juracanpr1:


Beautiful coast view, Which is the place?


St. Jean Bay in St Barts (Northern Leeward Islands)
I would say Happy Cape Verde Season kickoff party but it sounds like there isn't much optimism for 94L at this time.
Quoting 608. CaribBoy:



Jean Bay in St Barts (Northern Leeward Islands)

Thanks, Good looking place. I Visited only St. Thomas 20 years ago (aboard the former Scandinavian Song ship). Tourism in that zone should be heavy.
For those who are interested: European Storm Forecast Experiment has published a new mesoscale discussion, and I'm on the eastern edge of the possibly affected area:

Excerpt:
Widespread storm development along the front and along the eastern line are expected during the coming hours. Given the strong shear, the storms will include supercells with strong low-level mesocyclones. A tornado threat will therefore exist with these storms. These tornadoes may be strong.

612. JRRP
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Lol, can you imagine the blog if this happened? This is one of 20 GFS ensemble members from the 6z run. Major hurricane into New Orleans. NOT to be taken seriously, but it does show what could happen if a system had favorable conditions in that area.



You can see another member taking a strong hurricane in south of the TX/Mexico border here-

yeah and another member
Quoting Fla727:
94L looks like it might be a fish.


Way way too early to say that.
Last punch of Summer?
Folks, don't desperate with 94L or with each model run, just wait, observe carefully with a good time dose and... then your conclusions could be more reasonable!
Good morning, I will come back tonight or tomorrow evening.
Quoting 614. Climate175:

Last punch of Summer?


Hope so. I want more 90's + and sun before September is done. This summer in SC has been grey, cool and damp.
MAweatherboy1

Actually shear has been low in the extreme N.W caribbean and gulf.We've just been lacking a disturbance and that's where the warmest waters are.So if the wave does survive it's track across the MDR and the Atlantic it will have to be closely monitored.
22 more days until Meteorological Fall.
43 days until the Official First Day of Fall.
we have invest 94L WOW!
621. JRRP
Guys I think codec orange 48hours in the next TWO.


ONLY MOVING WEST AT 14 MPH..
Quoting 613. luvtogolf:



Way way too early to say that.
The fight for fish or not is just begin.
Quoting 624. prcane4you:

The fight for fish or not is just begin.


And so it the fight for Caribbean Cruiser or not.
Quoting 624. prcane4you:

The fight for fish or not is just begin.

Needs to develop first which I think will take a few days. Also 94L is at least a week away from the islands. I only look at models up to 5 days for track anything over 5 is speculation.
If it wasn't for the dry air Bertha could have been a impressive cape verde storm once again.But the dry air has been a killer/problem for 3 years now.

I want to be optimistic but with the way dry air has been killing things it's hard to get really excited with disappointment after disappointment.If it wasn't for the dry air then what we laugh at now (tropical waves/blobs) could have been storms that we were biting our nails over in other years like 2004 or 2005.

Rant over.
Quoting 625. CaribBoy:



And so it the fight for Caribbean Cruiser or not.
Good morning everyone I see we have 94L, early indications look to be Caribbean bound of course things can change this far out and it still has to go through the stable environment now known as the MDR.





629. ryang
Allan Huffman
‏@RaleighWx
Easterly shear of 20-30 knots should limit intensification 1st 24-36 hours. Shear then relaxes, but marginal SST of 25-27C for several days.
Looks like from looking at the 7 day 500 mb heights ,trough will come down in the easten us,then high pressure will move in and shunt any storms in the carib.further west,Gulf me be the target.
Quoting 611. barbamz:

For those who are interested: European Storm Forecast Experiment has published a new mesoscale discussion, and I'm on the eastern edge of the possibly affected area:

Excerpt:
Widespread storm development along the front and along the eastern line are expected during the coming hours. Given the strong shear, the storms will include supercells with strong low-level mesocyclones. A tornado threat will therefore exist with these storms. These tornadoes may be strong.


Hello Barbamz,
sure I'm interested. So far only light rain and a bit breezy here in Dordrecht, Netherlands.
Doesn't look to be(come) very serious around here.
By the way, thanks for your nice posts!
Hans
Quoting 631. GTstormChaserCaleb:


Surprisingly the ships isn't predicting a cat 5 :).lol.It could pull a Helen from 2012 with a more northern route.A T.D in the MDR then weaken in the eastern caribbean and probably re-intensify again in the N.W caribbean.
634. JRRP

SYNOPSIS 2014081000

P13L (NHC: 10% 2-day / 30% 5-day)
13N, 19W
700 hPa

ECMWF: Large, easily-tracked pouch all 120 hours, but the circulation remains weak the entire time.

GFS: Similar to ECMWF. Weak enough that it has an erratic track in the 84-96 hour period.

UKMET: Stronger than in other models. Gains more latitude as well, but then quickly weakens on Day 4.

NAVGEM: Distinct pouch in the analysis is then stretched zonally and dissipates after only 60 hours.
Hi everybody it looks like we now have invest 94 L to watch....fun in the coming days ...but will it lead to disappointment or a major Hurricane Christobal ?...time will tell and i'm along for the ride
GFS ensembles just show what will happen if SOMETHING survives going into the W.caribbean. definately something to watch :)
Quoting 634. JRRP:


SYNOPSIS 2014081000

P13L (NHC: 10% 2-day / 30% 5-day)
13N, 19W
700 hPa

ECMWF: Large, easily-tracked pouch all 120 hours, but the circulation remains weak the entire time.

GFS: Similar to ECMWF. Weak enough that it has an erratic track in the 84-96 hour period.

UKMET: Stronger than in other models. Gains more latitude as well, but then quickly weakens on Day 4.

NAVGEM: Distinct pouch in the analysis is then stretched zonally and dissipates after only 60 hours.
What a shame.....Poor hurricanes lovers.
Out ahead of it moisture is quickly dwindling and being replaced by dry air....personally I don't see how this has much of a chance and once it moves a little farther west it will be the end of it unless things get better which they could


Link
morning, everyone...so are 94L and the wave right behind it far enough apart to be considered separate entities?

Quoting 629. ryang:

Allan Huffman
‏@RaleighWx
Easterly shear of 20-30 knots should limit intensification 1st 24-36 hours. Shear then relaxes, but marginal SST of 25-27C for several days.
Good vorticity with the T waves this season. That will increase there chance of survival across the Atlantic. Could be a very important aspect as the seasonal peak approaches.
Quoting 639. Chicklit:

morning, everyone...so are 94L and the wave right behind it far enough apart to be considered separate entities?


Looks like that.
Quoting 639. Chicklit:

morning, everyone...so are 94L and the wave right behind it far enough apart to be considered separate entities?


Looks like that.
Yes, 94L is looking very good at the moment, however it should soon encounter a wall of dry air which will most likely cause it to die a slow death. It's like a roach that walks on your kitchen floor in the middle of the night looking for water or food and then steps over the area that you sprayed with BlackFlag or Raid and he starts to go into convulsions and flips over on his back and dies.
Quoting 621. JRRP:


I am wondering how much dust this invest will clear, and how much more of the Sahara will end up over the Atlantic.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
632. European58
02:23 PM GMT am 10. August 2014


Thanks, Hans, welcome, my pleasure. Still quiet at my place (Mainz) too. Some smaller thunderstorms of a preliminary zone of convergence (as far as I know) passed me to the North. All eyes are on the development of the cold front which is now entering Belgium.




Lowest pressure of Ex-Bertha over the east coast of UK now 988hPa.