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Hurricane Iselle Bearing Down on Hawaii

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:13 PM GMT on August 07, 2014

Hurricane warnings are flying for the Big Island as Hurricane Iselle bears down on Hawaii as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. This is the first hurricane warning issued for the main Hawaiian Islands in 21 years--since Hurricane Fernanda in 1993 (which ended up missing.) Thursday morning satellite images showed very little weakening of Iselle. The eyewall's heavy thunderstorms continued to maintain their intensity and areal coverage, and the eye was still prominent. The outer spiral bands of Iselle had already arrived on the Big Island as of early Thursday morning, as seen on Hawaii radar. Wind shear was moderate, about 15 knots, due to strong upper-level winds out of the north, but this shear is having only a minor impact on Iselle.


Figure 1. Hurricane Iselle, with 90 mph winds, and Hurricane Julio, with 75 mph winds, steam west-northwest towards the Hawaiian Islands in this GOES-West image taken at 8 pm EDT Wednesday, August 6, 2014. Image credit: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center.

Forecast for Iselle
Wind shear is expected to stay moderate until Iselle reaches the Big Island Thursday evening. Ocean temperatures will remain a marginal 26 - 26.5°C, and the atmosphere surrounding the storm will be fairly dry, resulting in continued slow weakening of Iselle. Our top intensity models are in decent agreement on Iselle's strength, predicting that the storm will weaken by 5 - 10 mph, to top winds of 70 - 75 mph, before landfall. The official CPHC forecast for a 75 mph minimal Category 1 hurricane at 8 pm EDT Thursday is reasonable. The main threat from Iselle will be heavy rains leading to flash flooding and mudslides. The Thursday morning 06Z run of the GFDL model predicted that Iselle would dump widespread rains of 4 - 8" over the islands, with some regions seeing 8 - 16". Wind damage is also a concern from Iselle; the 11 am EDT Thursday Wind Probability Forecast from Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) gave Hilo on the Big Island a 88% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph, and a 16% chance of hurricane-force winds. These odds were 45% and 2%, respectively, for Honolulu. On the higher terrain of the islands, winds will be up to 30% stronger than what is observed at sea level. High surf of 10 - 20' and higher will also pound the islands, causing erosion problems and coastal flooding. Since accurate landfall records began in 1949, only one tropical storm (an unnamed storm in 1958) and no hurricanes have ever hit the Big Island.


Figure 2. Predicted rainfall along the track of Hurricane Iselle from the 06Z (2 am EDT) Thursday August 7, 2014 run of the GFDL model. The model forecast that Iselle would be a strong tropical storm with 65 mph winds at landfall Thursday evening. Widespread rains of 4 - 8" were predicted over the islands, with some regions seeing 8 - 16". Image credit: NOAA/GFDL.

Hurricane Julio intensifies, expected to skirt Hawaii
Hawaii's other hurricane threat is Hurricane Julio, which intensified to a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds at 11 am EDT on Thursday. Satellite loops show that Julio now has a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms and well-formed eye. The storm should be able to take advantage of light to moderate wind shear and marginally warm sea surface temperatures near 26°C and maintain Category 2 status until Friday, when a slow weakening trend should begin. With the notable exception of the GFDL model, our top track models continue to predict that the center of the storm will pass about 100 miles northeast of the Hawaiian Islands on Sunday. On this path, Julio's core of heavy rains and wind would miss the islands, and high surf would be the main impact of the storm. The edge of Julio's cone of uncertainly for Sunday still lies over the islands, so we cannot yet be confident of this track, but at this time it appears that Hawaii will avoid torrential rains from Julio falling upon soils already saturated by Iselle.


Figure 3. True-color MODIS image of Hurricane Genevieve from 22:45 UTC (6:45 pm EDT) August 6, 2014. At the time, Genevieve was intensifying into a Category 4 hurricane with 135 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Hurricane Genevieve becomes Super Typhoon Genevieve
Farther west in the Pacific, what was formerly Hurricane Genevieve has now become Super Typhoon Genevieve, after the storm crossed the International Date Line from east to west early Thursday. Genevieve put on an amazing display of rapid intensification, going from a tropical storm with 60 mph winds to a Category 5 super typhoon with 160 mph winds in just 27 hours, from 09 UTC August 6 to 12 UTC August 7. Satellite images show an very impressive storm with a large eye surrounded by a giant area of intense eyewall thunderstorms with very cold cloud tops. Fortunately, Genevieve is not expected to threaten any land areas. Genevieve reached major hurricane status shortly before crossing the Date Line, so the Eastern Pacific has now had 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes so far in 2014. On average, we expect to see just 7 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 1 intense hurricane by August 7. It is rare for a tropical cyclone to cross the Date Line; the last storm I'm aware of to do so was Category 5 Hurricane Ioke of 2006, which was renamed Super Typhoon Ioke when it crossed the Date Line on August 27. There is no difference between a North Pacific hurricane and a typhoon other than its location--if the storm is west of the Date Line, it is called a typhoon, and if it is east of the Date Line, it is called a hurricane. This only applies to storms in the Pacific in the Northern Hemisphere; in the Southern Hemisphere's Pacific Ocean, everything is called a Tropical Cyclone regardless of which side of the Date Line it falls on.


Figure 4. Typhoon Halong as photographed and tweeted by astronaut Reid Wiseman at 09 UTC August 7, 2014. At the time, Halong was a Category 1 storm with 85 mph winds.

Typhoon Halong drenching Japan
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Halong was a Category 1 storm with 85 mph winds at 8 am EDT Thursday, and was spreading heavy rains into Southern Japan. Halong's center passed 25 miles east of Minamidaitojima (South Daito Island) between 3 and 5 pm JST (2 and 4 am US EDT) today. According to Japan's AMeDAS observation network, the peak 10-minute sustained wind at Kitadaito (North Daito) Island was 72 mph from the NNE, with a peak gust of 106 mph also from the NNE, both close to 3 pm JST. Minamidaito reported a peak gust of 100 mph and a minimum pressure of 953.7 millibars (28.17 inches of mercury) along with about 3 inches of rain so far. Satellite loops show that Halong has lost most of the heavy thunderstorms along the northern side of its circulation, but the typhoon still has a large eye. Halong is moving north at just 5 mph, and will bring Southern Japan an extended period of heavy rain today through Saturday as a Category 1 typhoon. Thanks go to TWC's Nick Wiltgen for Halong wind stats.

The Atlantic is quiet
In the Atlantic, there are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis predicts development over the next five days.

Interesting links
Storm surge history of Hawaii from Dr. Hal Needham
Central Pacific Hurricane Center
2-km resolution WRF model output from the University of Hawaii for Hawaii
Storm surge maps for Oahu
Storm info from Tropical Tidbits
NWS Honolulu

I'll have a new post later today.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks DR. M!
This is something you dont see every day! Tropical Storm/Hurricane warnings for Hawaii.

Thanks doc
Has there ever been a Typhoon to cross the date line from the west and become a Hurricane?
Thank You Dr; Good news for Hawaii on both fronts with a Cat 1 and Julio hopefully not dumping to much additional rain on the Islands there.

Genevieve put on an amazing display of rapid intensification, going from a tropical storm with 60 mph winds to a Category 5 super typhoon with 160 mph winds in just 27 hours,

That is a remarkable statistic.
Thanks Doc.
HURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014
800 AM PDT THU AUG 07 2014

Despite moving over decreasing sea surface temperatures, Julio is
continuing to strengthen. The eye has become better defined during
the past few hours, and the cloud top temperatures in the eyewall
have cooled. Subjective satellite intensity estimates are 90 kt
from TAFB and 77 kt from SAB, and objective estimates from the
UW-CIMSS ADT are near 100 kt. The initial intensity is increased
to 90 kt based on a blend of these data. The cirrus outflow is good
to excellent over the western semicircle and poor elsewhere.

Julio has turned a little to the left and the initial motion is now
280/16. Julio is expected to remain south of the subtropical ridge
for the next few days, which will keep it on a westward to
west-northwestward trajectory. During the first 72 hours, the
track guidance is tightly clustered near the new forecast track with
the notable exception of the GFDL model, which forecasts a track
near the Hawaiian Islands. After 72 hours, the guidance has come
into better agreement that the subtropical ridge north of Hawaii
will be stronger than earlier forecast, and that Julio should
continue a west-northwesterly to westward motion. This has reduced,
but not eliminated, the spread in the track guidance at 96 and 120
hours. The new track forecast is just south of the previous forecast
through 72 hours, then is adjusted farther south from the previous
track at the later forecast times. The new forecast lies near or
just to the north of the multi-model consensus and the center of the
guidance envelope.

The dynamical models forecast Julio to remain in a light vertical
wind shear environment during the next 2-3 days as the cyclone
passes over sea surface temperatures of 25C-26C. All of the
intensity guidance forecasts a gradual weakening during that time,
and the intensity forecast follows this scenario. The intensity
forecast becomes more uncertain after 72 hours as Julio starts
moving over warmer sea surface temperatures. During this period,
the statistical guidance is forecasting a weaker storm than the
dynamical guidance, and the the large-scale models have some
disagreement on how much shear Julio will encounter. The later part
of the forecast is nudged upward as a compromise between the two
model camps. Overall, the new forecast lies close to the intensity
consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 16.9N 136.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 17.3N 138.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 17.8N 141.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 18.5N 144.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 19.3N 147.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 21.5N 153.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 23.5N 158.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 24.5N 162.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

Quoting 585. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I respectfully disagree with JB the pattern showing up on the long range CFS shows the Subtropical Ridge extending all the way towards the East Coast of the US. The pattern resembles years like 1998, 2002, and 2007.


I was thinking that too, but then I realized that as the year wears on, the troughs will be strong earlier than usual, causing storms to curve north, possibly affecting the U.S....As always tho, its timing, the strength of the Bermuda High, and the number and strength of the troughs.
Thanks doc.
Quoting 4. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Has there ever been a Typhoon to cross the date line from the west and become a Hurricane?
I thought there was a Hurricane John that was a hurricane, became a typhoon, and then a hurricane again by executing a giant loop in the Pacific..I am going by memory, and havnt looked it up yet.
Quoting 564. hydrus:




Equatorial Africa must get some epic thunderstorms especially by the Atlantic coast where tropical waves bump into the sea breeze. I do know that while Florida is the lightning capital of the U.S. some of those areas in Africa are even much worse. Lightning death amounts are scary high in those areas. I knew someone who traveled to that area and said the thunderstorms absolutely terrible there.

I think it would be cool to study some of weather active regions in the world like this that there is little data from a lack of weathers obs and instrumentation or research on.
Quoting 592. Sfloridacat5:



Even with an understanding on Ocean currents, its still pretty amazing that the water temperatures are that cold so close to the Equator off South America.

It is those cold waters that make the fishing a very lucrative business there. When Nino comes the fishing is poor to non existent, and the weather very bad.
Quoting 10. hydrus:

I thought there was a Hurricane John that was a hurricane, became a typhoon, and then a hurricane again by executing a giant loop in the Pacific..I am going by memory, and havnt looked it up yet.
Good stuff, hydrus. You have good memory man.



"Clearing Johnston Atoll, John turned to the northwest and began strengthening again as shear decreased. On August 27 local time, John reached a secondary peak strength of 135 miles per hour (210 km/h), and shortly thereafter it crossed the International Date Line at approximately 22° N and came under the surveillance of the Guam branch of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). By crossing into the western Pacific, John also became a typhoon and was referred to as Typhoon John during its time in the western Pacific.[3] Immediately after crossing the Date Line, John again weakened and its forward motion stalled. By September 1, John had weakened to a tropical storm and was nearly motionless just west of the Date Line. There, John lingered for six days while performing a multi-day counterclockwise loop. On September 7, a trough moved into the area and quickly moved John to the northeast. John crossed the Date Line again on September 8 and reentered the central Pacific.[3]

After reentering the central Pacific, John briefly reached a tertiary peak strength of 90 miles per hour (145 km/h), a strong Category 1 hurricane, well to the north of Midway Island. However, the trough was rapidly pulling apart John's structure, and the cold waters of the northern central Pacific were not conducive to a tropical cyclone. On September 10, the 120th advisory was released on the system, finally declaring John to have become extratropical approximately 1000 miles (1600 km) south of Unalaska Island.[3]"

Link
Quoting 10. hydrus:

I thought there was a Hurricane John that was a hurricane, became a typhoon, and then a hurricane again by executing a giant loop in the Pacific..I am going by memory, and havnt looked it up yet.

He is correct.
Thanks Dr. Masters! Hope everyone in Hawaii is prepared and stays safe.
On the lightening issue below (Jedkins) I was also thinking in terms of Genevieve if the scientists watching the storm had sensor data in place to monitor lightening activity inside/near the eye wall in the period leading up to the RI event.  A UF researcher/met Prof did one study a few years ago on this issue and included analysis as to Katrina in 2005 and found a correlation between the lightening increase preceding the rapid intensification event by about 5 hours I believe.  
Boy those EPAC hurricanes have long tracks. John was a tropical system for a whole month and a day.
Anyone know what ACE looks like for the EPac so far this season? Has to be pretty high, I think.
Quoting 18. TimSoCal:

Anyone know what ACE looks like for the EPac so far this season? Has to be pretty high, I think.

From wiki:
The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index for the season as of 15:00 UTC (8 a.m. PDT) August 7 is 60.3725 units for the East Pacific and 8.835 units for the Central Pacific.

Quoting 15. ZacWeatherKidUK:

Thanks Dr. Masters! Hope everyone in Hawaii is prepared and stays safe.


Sadly some arn't, and sadly some won't be safe, and some will die.
Quoting 19. ZacWeatherKidUK:

From wiki:
The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index for the season as of 15:00 UTC (8 a.m. PDT August 7 is 60.3725 units for the East Pacific and 8.835 units for the Central Pacific.


LOL I am so blind. I looked at wiki before posting, but not closely enough. Thank you, good sir!
Active Hurricane Era Likely To Continue says NOAA: What happened?
Warmer than average surface temperatures and low wind shear, enhance hurricane activity. This increase in the number and intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes can span multiple decades (approximately 20 to 30 years.

This article was written by NOAA April 13 2006. What happened to there prediction and many others from extreme to nothing. Can our environment be that messed up to change so drastically so fast. Climate change or ?

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2005/s2540.ht m
Quoting 19. ZacWeatherKidUK:


From wiki:
The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index for the season as of 15:00 UTC (8 a.m. PDT) August 7 is 60.3725 units for the East Pacific and 8.835 units for the Central Pacific.
Anyone know what ACE looks like for the Atlantic so far this season? Has to be pretty low, I think.
There have also been Atlantic-Pacific crossovers and vice-versa.

Joan-Miriam 1988

Alma-Arthur 2008
Quoting 23. Waltanater:

Anyone know what ACE looks like for the Atlantic so far this season? Has to be pretty low, I think.

12.0975 units.
Not so much dry air left between her and the Big Island now:


Thanks for the Update Dr. Masters....
29. SLU

tsr forecast pretty much copied my forecast. 12-6-2
Quoting 25. TropicalAnalystwx13:


12.0975 units.

My error on the earlier comment on "13" last year for the Atlantic ACE; it was 33.  This current one is much less lower.




watch this tropical low with a good spin here!!
Quoting 27. MahFL:

Not so much dry air left between her and the Big Island now:





That is only upper dry air, as there are actually heavy shallow convective showers on the big island already with locally heavy rain already accumulating that are below that drier air. Without shear and cool water, tropical cyclones have no problem keeping out dry air aloft as long as shear can't drive it in and instability is sufficient. As they take moisture at the surface and lift it through the column.

Dry air aloft can still get in and weaken a system if these things are favorable, but its less likely.

Earlier on, the airmass was likely less tropical and drier with depth which is hard for any strong cyclone to fight off. Now its more of just upper dry air, which is allowing it to maintain deep inner core convection.

I suspect the main reason for the small area of deeper convection, is that water temps are just past the threshold for hurricanes, given that, the hurricane has to remove outer bands to conserve enough energy from the inner core.

I suspect that if water temps were warmer, it could develop a larger area of convection and would work out the drier air aloft further away from the center.

Thankfully it is moving pretty fast, but still, a the well organized inner core convection will still dump extremely heavy amounts of rain capable of producing life threatening flash floods. Especially as the strong winds drive the deep convection up the higher terrain, enhancing rainfall rates in upslope regions.

Wind will also likely still be hurricane force even if it weakens below hurricane strength in high elevations as well that are on the upslope in the direction of the onshore flow.

Keep in mind that this is a very active volcanic regions. Any rain that falls on cooled lava flow slops will be terrible, it will accelerate downhill.


Quoting 33. hurricanes2018:
watch this tropical low with a good spin here!!


Ah too late, ....it just dissipated.....( just kidding ).
Good thing that 4.5 earthquake on the North end of the big island an hour or so ago didn't happen AFTER Iselle made landfall -- with the ground so wet I'm sure there would have been a lot more earth movement from it. They're getting hit today!
Sunrise over Iselle/Hawaii.
Quoting 36. CaneFreeCR:

Good thing that 4.5 earthquake on the North end of the big island an hour or so ago didn't happen AFTER Iselle made landfall -- with the ground so wet I'm sure there would have been a lot more earth movement from it. They're getting hit today!



Strange.. That reminds me because before Irene hit N.C there was the big earthquake in Virginia.
Quoting 36. CaneFreeCR:

Good thing that 4.5 earthquake on the North end of the big island an hour or so ago didn't happen AFTER Iselle made landfall -- with the ground so wet I'm sure there would have been a lot more earth movement from it. They're getting hit today!



Which brings to mind another more spectactular potential natural coincidence...are there currently any active lava flows going on, or lava fountains? If there are, what would that look like with a hurricane raging?
Julio is making an attempt to become the fifth major hurricane of the season.

2014AUG07 160000 5.6 959.6 104.6 5.5 5.6 5.6 NO LIMIT ON OFF -9.16 -61.60 EYE -99 IR 13.9 16.89 136.40 COMBO GOES15 19.8

I know we've been saying it for like 4 years in a row now, but wow. If something can get going in the Caribbean with the proper upper level conditions...yikes. The TCHP is exceptional this year.

Quoting 38. Articuno:



Strange.. That reminds me because before Irene hit N.C there was the big earthquake in Virginia.
Yep...That earthquake in Virginia was strange.
Quoting 39. BayFog:



Which brings to mind another more spectactular potential natural coincidence...are there currently any active lava flows going on, or lava fountains? If there are, what would that look like with a hurricane raging?
Probably not enough volume of hot steam to really kick the storm up a notch, but if there was a lot ... Imagine the convection!
Quoting 41. MississippiWx:

I know we've been saying it for like 4 years in a row now, but wow. If something can get going in the Caribbean with the proper upper level conditions...yikes. The TCHP is exceptional this year.


That is one of the most dangerous areas of the world when it comes to Tropical cyclones.
Thanks Dr. Masters!

Quoting 39. BayFog:



Which brings to mind another more spectactular potential natural coincidence...are there currently any active lava flows going on, or lava fountains? If there are, what would that look like with a hurricane raging?
yes. There is exposed, open lavatube in Kilauea caldera right now. U can't see moving lava in this for it's to far down in the ground. I was just there. It's only a small pocket and a red glow can be seen at night. There's also a crater in the national park near the ocean with active lava flows
Gonna check out for the day but want to wish everyone a great afternoon and safe passage for our folks in Hawaii.  My parting thought for the day is related to the 2012-2013 Atlantic seasons and the "lack" of forecasted majors.  A strong/rain drenched TS is nothing to laugh at either (Sandy) as well as some other storms that impacted the US and the Islands those two seasons, but we have not seen a catastrophic high cat hurricane impact the Islands or the US in recent years.  That is a good thing and we just have to see what unfolds this year. Similar to the movie title, the US and Caribbean have been the recipients of a series of "fortunate" events in recent years that has include stable dry air anomalies and faster trades in the Central Atlantic.  Conversely, we have seen some devastating Pacific basin storms in the same time periods.

Tomorrow will be my 8th anniversary as a Blog member and I have learned a lot from Dr. M, and some of the well informed regulars on here past and present,  in that time period.  We have also seen some devastating tropical storms impact people, word wide, in that same period of time. I have no clue whether that recent Atlantic "lucky streak", trajectory and intensity wise, will continue  but I am always hoping for another "dull" Atlantic season at the end of the day.         
HH issues?

Quoting 44. hydrus:

That is one of the most dangerous areas of the world when it comes to Tropical cyclones.
Agree it's an area I fear the most living here in the Tampa Bay area. That's the one spot in which if a storm were to get going could take a track up towards this area due to cold fronts coming down. Timing is crucial in both development and steering if a storm were to head this way.
Quoting 48. VAbeachhurricanes:

HH issues?



Was thinking the same thing, that's obviously not a normal procedure, it's like they were coming in from the NW but realized something was wrong. Hope they get it figured out.
Quoting 34. Jedkins01:



That is only upper dry air, as there are actually heavy shallow convective showers on the big island already with locally heavy rain already accumulating that are below that drier air. Without shear and cool water, tropical cyclones have no problem keeping out dry air aloft as long as shear can't drive it in and instability is sufficient. As they take moisture at the surface and lift it through the column.

Dry air aloft can still get in and weaken a system if these things are favorable, but its less likely.

Earlier on, the airmass was likely less tropical and drier with depth which is hard for any strong cyclone to fight off. Now its more of just upper dry air, which is allowing it to maintain deep inner core convection.

I suspect the main reason for the small area of deeper convection, is that water temps are just past the threshold for hurricanes, given that, the hurricane has to remove outer bands to conserve enough energy from the inner core.

I suspect that if water temps were warmer, it could develop a larger area of convection and would work out the drier air aloft further away from the center.

Thankfully it is moving pretty fast, but still, a the well organized inner core convection will still dump extremely heavy amounts of rain capable of producing life threatening flash floods. Especially as the strong winds drive the deep convection up the higher terrain, enhancing rainfall rates in upslope regions.

Wind will also likely still be hurricane force even if it weakens below hurricane strength in high elevations as well that are on the upslope in the direction of the onshore flow.

Keep in mind that this is a very active volcanic regions. Any rain that falls on cooled lava flow slops will be terrible, it will accelerate downhill.




Heavy showers?



big ??
The System over IL may need to be watched in the future.
Quoting 48. VAbeachhurricanes:

HH issues?



Looks OK now.... turned East..
Quoting 41. MississippiWx:

I know we've been saying it for like 4 years in a row now, but wow. If something can get going in the Caribbean with the proper upper level conditions...yikes. The TCHP is exceptional this year.




It's the highest it's been for at least 9 years (The TCHP records started in 2005, I don't know if it goes back before then). The only years that can somewhat compare are 2012 & 2013:





Could easily see a weak system rapidly intensify to a category 5 with the right upper level conditions there. Rather scary though.
The Caribbean is pretty much a powder keg right now.:



The Gulf is also forecast to become quite impressive: 
Genevieve

Quoting 44. hydrus:

That is one of the most dangerous areas of the world when it comes to Tropical cyclones.


This is called the Cat 5 Generator because so many storms rapidly intensified to category 5 hurricanes west of Jamaica.
Thanks Dr. Masters and good afternoon everybody!


This is pretty unsettling... Iselle and Julio
Big Island elevation map


Population density, clearly concentrated in Honolulu County

Quoting Envoirment:


It's the highest it's been for at least 9 years (The TCHP records started in 2005, I don't know if it goes back before then). The only years that can somewhat compare are 2012 & 2013:





Could easily see a weak system rapidly intensify to a category 5 with the right upper level conditions there. Rather scary though.


2007 actually was actually more anomalous. 

Quoting 11. Jedkins01:



Equatorial Africa must get some epic thunderstorms especially by the Atlantic coast where tropical waves bump into the sea breeze. I do know that while Florida is the lightning capital of the U.S. some of those areas in Africa are even much worse. Lightning death amounts are scary high in those areas. I knew someone who traveled to that area and said the thunderstorms absolutely terrible there.

I think it would be cool to study some of weather active regions in the world like this that there is little data from a lack of weathers obs and instrumentation or research on.
I actually read some research on powerful thunderstorms about 20 years ago. The largest and most lightening prolific storms ( at that time anyway ) occurred over and near Equatorial Africa and over parts of Indonesia. It was said that thunder from some of these storms could be heard at least 30 miles from the point where the lightening occurred. Super bolts or positive giants occur here in the U.S., but not as often or as powerful as in the regions mentioned.
Quoting 63. Stormchaser2007:




2007 actually was actually more anomalous. 




That's 18th July. This was 2007 August 5th:



Quoting 57. Stormchaser2007:

The Caribbean is pretty much a powder keg right now.:



The Gulf is also forecast to become quite impressive: 

Just lookin at that is unsettling.
Quoting 38. Articuno:



Strange.. That reminds me because before Irene hit N.C there was the big earthquake in Virginia.


I live in MD so I don't get earthquakes or hurricanes, and that week we had both. the quake was a Thursday i think and Irene came closest on Saturday.
Quoting 67. BaltOCane:



I live in MD so I don't get earthquakes or hurricanes, and that week we had both. the quake was a Thursday i think and Irene came closest on Saturday.


I live in MD too :P
Quoting Stormchaser2007:



2007 actually was actually more anomalous.




Not a surprise. That season supported two long-tracked Category 5's through the Caribbean. Shear remains quite low in the Caribbean right now, but it's still quite dry out there. Dean and Felix had very high levels of instability to work with. We need an MJO pulse to come through sometime in the next 3-4 weeks for anything to take advantage of that, imo. I think it's more likely this year that something developing out of the SW Caribbean might take advantage of that in October.
Quoting BaltOCane:


I live in MD so I don't get earthquakes or hurricanes, and that week we had both. the quake was a Thursday i think and Irene came closest on Saturday.


Baltimore is definitely vulnerable to tropical systems. Earthquakes not so much
Quoting 63. Stormchaser2007:




2007 actually was actually more anomalous. 


07 also had two landfalling cat 5,s in the Caribbean..Felix Hit the Mosquito Coast, and Dean had 200 mph gusts. Both were scary fricken storms.
701
WTPA33 PHFO 071754
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISELLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092014
800 AM HST THU AUG 07 2014

...DANGEROUS ISELLE MAKING A BEELINE FOR THE BIG ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 151.4W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...MOLOKAI...LANAI...
AND KAHOOLAWE.
* OAHU
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ISELLE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 151.4 WEST. THE MOTION
OF ISELLE HAS NOT CHANGED...AND THE HURRICANE IS STILL MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SOME SLOWING IN FORWARD SPEED ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISELLE IS
EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE BIG ISLAND TONIGHT...AND PASS JUST SOUTH
OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT
ISELLE IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT MAKES
LANDFALL ON THE BIG ISLAND TONIGHT.

REMEMBER THAT THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANES ARE FAR REACHING. DO NOT
FOCUS ON THE CENTER POSITION ALONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY DETERIORATE OVER THE BIG ISLAND
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
WELL BEFORE DARK. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE BIG ISLAND TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
MAUI COUNTY TONIGHT...AND FOR OAHU LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR KAUAI COUNTY LATER FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS TO 12 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE TRACK OF ISELLE.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AS WELL AS
ROCK AND MUD SLIDES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ISELLE WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ALONG EAST
FACING SHORES. VERY LARGE...DAMAGING SURF IS EXPECTED ALONG SOME
EAST AND SOUTH SHORES STARTING TODAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

BIG ISLAND WINDWARD AND KAU...1 TO 3 FT

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING
WAVES. SURGE RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE
SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD
GFS showing an impressive MJO pulse over Africa in the coming weeks. That'll instigate CV activity if nothing else will this season.

I read somewhere I forgot but it said over there near Hawaii there's gonna be a astronomical high tide to. Does anyone know how this will effect things?

sheri
According to the WU, Genevieve is no longer shown anywhere, not the Central or the West Pacific. They also don't show any activity in the Central Pacific on the Hurricane page.

Central Pacific
There is no tropical storm activity for this region.

What's up with that?
Quoting 70. wxgeek723:



Baltimore is definitely vulnerable to tropical systems. Earthquakes not so much


You are correct...

I was luckily away at college when Isabell flooded downtown, and I'm not old enough for Carol or which ever storm was back in the '50s.

Aaaaaand! 3 out of the last 4 years, a hurricane has come close enough to give us rain, flooding, winds, etc: Arthur, Sandy, and Irene.
Quoting 75. PedleyCA:

According to the WU, Genevieve is no longer shown anywhere, the the Central or the West Pacific. They also don't show any activity in the Central Pacific on the Hurricane page.

Central Pacific
There is no tropical storm activity for this region.

What's up with that?



Well she is the Queen over most of the Pacific at the moment. Don't understand why she would not exist


Quoting 74. catastropheadjuster:

I read somewhere I forgot but it said over there near Hawaii there's gonna be a astronomical high tide to. Does anyone know how this will effect things?

sheri




Hey Sheri, full moon is upcoming on the 10th. It is normal for tides to run above normal during this lunar phase. With a storm on the horizon --coming in at high tide--'could' cause more problems.

Hope this helps----about as tech as I can manage;-)
Quoting 70. wxgeek723:



Baltimore is definitely vulnerable to tropical systems. Earthquakes not so much



Maryland and Delaware, are both overdue.
Quoting 77. VR46L:



Well she is the Queen over most of the Pacific at the moment. Don't understand why she would not exist




On the NHC page, go to the "satellite" link in the left hand column. Then find the "floaters" link. That will take you to a page with all the tropical storms on earth. For discussion and advisories on typhoons, I find the fastest route is going to the Central Pacific page (link at bottom of NHC page), then find the Guam link in the lefthand column. On that page, you'll find links to typhoon discussion, including currently, Genevieve.
Recon's first pass through Iselle recorded an unimpressive 990mb pressure and surface winds under 70mph. She's weakening. They have to sample quite a bit more though, there should be higher winds in the NE quadrant, possibly to hurricane force.

Quoting 11. Jedkins01:



Equatorial Africa must get some epic thunderstorms especially by the Atlantic coast where tropical waves bump into the sea breeze. I do know that while Florida is the lightning capital of the U.S. some of those areas in Africa are even much worse. Lightning death amounts are scary high in those areas. I knew someone who traveled to that area and said the thunderstorms absolutely terrible there.

I think it would be cool to study some of weather active regions in the world like this that there is little data from a lack of weathers obs and instrumentation or research on.




The map above shows the average yearly counts of lightning flashes per square kilometer based on data collected by NASA satellites between 1995 and 2002. Places where less than 1 flash occurred (on average) each year are gray or light purple. The places with the largest number of lightning strikes are deep red. Much more lightning occurs over land than ocean because daily sunshine heats up the land surface faster than the ocean. The heated surface heats the air, and more hot air leads to stronger convection, thunderstorms, and lightning. The map also shows that more lightning occurs near the equator than near the poles. This pattern is also due to differences in heating. The equator is warmer than the poles, and convection, thunderstorms, and lightning are widespread across the tropics every day. Image by NASA. World Lightning Map


good news here I like to see a hurricane soon.
http://khon2.com/live-stream/




Iselle's track over the last several hours & now in daylight looking like the middle of Hawaii as a landfall at this stage. The other islands are not out of the woods either, with all south or south-west facing shorelines.Hopefully a low impact for the residents of all the islands over this next couple of days
G'day, thanks for the update Dr Jeff.
What a unique and historical event Iselle presents. Hopefully without too severe of tragic consequences for Hawaiians.

Besides the rare E to W trajectory, it will be most interesting to observe what happens when a tropical cyclone suddenly encounters a 14,000 ft mountain sitting in it's path.
very little difference tides in hawaii and Eddie would go.
Quoting 71. hydrus:
07 also had two landfalling cat 5,s in the Caribbean..Felix Hit the Mosquito Coast, and Dean had 200 mph gusts. Both were scary fricken storms.


We prepared for Dean here in Cayman,staying in the new house that was just finished in January '07,( the replacement of the one took down in Ivan '04 ).I can assure you, it was scary watching Dean fly past only 135 miles to the south, while at or near Cat 4 intensity.Water temp' is very, very warm here now too as you point out.Went for a swim on the south coast on the weekend,like warm bathwater....
state of emergency issued in hawaii in maui county
After Iselle leaves Hawaii, I would keep an eye on this tropical wave next week. It has the feel of a broad "brake" on the trade winds that can sometimes light up in the western Caribbean or Bay of Campeche if upper-level conditions are conducive.

I just had a bad thought...all those fantastic, large astronomical observatories. Let's hope they've prepped to minimize damage to some expensive and valuable equipment. The winds, even if diminished at sea level will be ferocious at altitude. They do occasionally get strong winds during winter storms, but probably not like what a hurricane might bring.
Quoting 75. PedleyCA:

According to the WU, Genevieve is no longer shown anywhere, not the Central or the West Pacific. They also don't show any activity in the Central Pacific on the Hurricane page.

Central Pacific
There is no tropical storm activity for this region.

What's up with that?



Genevieve is most likely due to the Navy not updating a position since 00Z, Link so WU might have some sort of timeout when no update occurs. The other storms while physically in the CP have EP numbers so in WU they show up under EP.
Quoting 90. Levi32:

After Iselle leaves Hawaii, I would keep an eye on this tropical wave next week. It has the feel of a broad "brake" on the trade winds that can sometimes light up in the western Caribbean or Bay of Campeche if upper-level conditions are conducive.


I saw on twitter how the GEFS shows low pressure in the tropics in 2 weeks. late august and early september will be the time the atlantic has of producing MH. and the steering looks to be very dangerous for landmasses further west. we will see in the upcoming weeks after hawaii is done dealing with the 2 hurricanes
Quoting 87. islander101010:

very little difference tides in hawaii and Eddie would go.


Yes he would.
Eyewall collapsing finally

Is Cantore in HI yet?
Thanks Dr Masters! The radar here in Jamaica is lightning up. A tropical wave over the island, and a TUTT low north of the greater Antilles is largely responsible.



*Note, the north eastern section of our radar is affected by partial beam blockage.

Quoting 66. hydrus:

Just lookin at that is unsettling.


The Gulf gets quite warm almost every Summer, certain people on certain forums will make comments about it exploding or boiling over or some such, and more years than not, there is no significant storm in the Gulf. No matter how warm, if a storm doesn't develop in the Gulf or move in, and shear/moisture isn't favorable if a storm does form or move in, nothing happens, and then the fronts of October through March start taking all that TCHP out without any help from TCs.

Other thing, I'd trust the Euro more than the GFS on MJO-ish stuff, and I don't see the big promise of a mid-month CV storm. That said, 0Z Euro had a nice looking wave, a closed low actually, come off Africa in a week but open up by Day 10...

To go with the other maps, here's the annual precipitation map I posted earlier.

The eastern slopes of some of the Islands have extreme annual rainfalls.

Wiki claims - 460 inches (11,684 mm) annually on Mount Waialeale, in Kauai.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_of_the_Unite d_States

I'm going to need the Florida Keys to put up/keep up their Hurricane Shield for me, as I'm vacationing down there Aug 21-28th.

Much appreciated, thanks, KW!
Quoting 95. VAbeachhurricanes:

Eyewall collapsing finally




I sort of hope it is still officially a hurricane at landfall for history's sake, as far as damage goes, a 65 or 70 mph tropical storm isn't that much better than a 75 mph hurricane, and the rainfall probably wouldn't vary by much.
Dvorak 7.0 (Category Five) from JMA

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON GENEVIEVE (1413)
3:00 AM JST August 8 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: GENEVIEVE In Midway Islands waters

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Genevieve (940 hPa) located at 15.7N 177.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 110 knots with gusts of 155 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 13 knots.

Storm Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
============
120 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T7.0

Forecast and Intensity
==================
24 HRS: 18.9N 175.5E- 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Midway Islands waters
48 HRS: 24.6N 174.8E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Midway Islands waters
72 HRS: 30.3N 170.7E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Midway Islands waters
I'm waiting to see if the 18Z NAM continues to show the wave moving through the Caribbean. So far its been consistant with the wave holding together for the past two days.

12z NAM at 84 hours

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #79
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON HALONG (1411)
3:00 AM JST August 8 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: HALONG 260 KM Southeast Of Amami Oshima [Kagoshima Prefecture]

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Halong (945 hPa) located at 26.9N 131.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 6 knots.

Storm Force Winds
================
110 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
80 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Gale Force Winds
============
300 NM from the center in east quadrant
210 NM from the center in west quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Forecast and Intensity
==================
24 HRS: 29.6N 131.7E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) south southeast of Tanegashima [Kagoshima Prefecture]
48 HRS: 34.7N 133.4E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Overland Chugoku [Okayama Prefecture]
72 HRS: 41.1N 136.1E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea of ​​Japan
Quoting 95. VAbeachhurricanes:

Eyewall collapsing finally




Still looks better than Bertha ever did haha

Good morning, Genevieve.
SLU what are you seeing east of the islands? very robust tropical wave at 20W
Overview: Big Island beach webcams Hawaii, including Mauna Loa (which isn't exactly a "beach", lol). Notice the cam which also provides timelapse videos towards the southeast, from where Iselle is approaching: Link

----------------------------


Current view south from Mauna Kea. Source. Lol, in the moment I posted it clouds went in.
Quoting 92. nrtiwlnvragn:



Genevieve is most likely due to the Navy not updating a position since 00Z, Link so WU might have some sort of timeout when no update occurs. The other storms while physically in the CP have EP numbers so in WU they show up under EP.

Thanks for that clarification, I saw they were still listed in EP, with CP coordinates. I think it would be better to just leave it static rather than remove it altogether.
TW around 11N/61W looks interesting!
Quoting 98. EdMahmoud:



The Gulf gets quite warm almost every Summer, certain people on certain forums will make comments about it exploding or boiling over or some such, and more years than not, there is no significant storm in the Gulf. No matter how warm, if a storm doesn't develop in the Gulf or move in, and shear/moisture isn't favorable if a storm does form or move in, nothing happens, and then the fronts of October through March start taking all that TCHP out without any help from TCs.

Other thing, I'd trust the Euro more than the GFS on MJO-ish stuff, and I don't see the big promise of a mid-month CV storm. That said, 0Z Euro had a nice looking wave, a closed low actually, come off Africa in a week but open up by Day 10...


Thanks Ed...
Quoting 99. Sfloridacat5:

To go with the other maps, here's the annual precipitation map I posted earlier.

The eastern slopes of some of the Islands have extreme annual rainfalls.

Wiki claims - 460 inches (11,684 mm) annually on Mount Waialeale, in Kauai.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_of_the_Unite d_States




Its hard to imagine living in a place that receives over 400 inches of rain a year. That's around 8 times the yearly rainfall that we get in Central Florida. There must be some beautiful rainforest jungles in those extreme wet areas of Hawaii. I wouldn't mind living in that though to be honest. I hate drought.
Tropical Trivia: What is the only Hurricane to hit both the United States mainland and Hawaii????
Quoting 96. TimSoCal:

Is Cantore in HI yet?

Yep. Cantore did several live spots this morning from the beach on the big island.
Nice low showing in the 12z Euro at the 240 hour frame coming off Africa..looks to be a TD already?


iSELLE



The other one

Quoting 111. stormpetrol:

TW around 11N/61W looks interesting!
I am watching that tropical wave to.
Incredible


Current mission 06 into Iselle from Levi's site.
Probably no longer a hurricane

Strongest winds so far

Time: 19:33:00Z
Coordinates: 19.3167N 151.4333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 696.9 mb (~ 20.58 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,160 meters (~ 10,367 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1007.5 mb (~ 29.75 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 119 at 65 knots (From the ESE at ~ 74.8 mph)
Air Temp: 8.2C (~ 46.8F)
Dew Pt: 6.2C (~ 43.2F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 67 knots (~ 77.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 49 knots (~ 56.3 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 2 mm/hr (~ 0.08 in/hr)
Quoting 122. Stormchaser2007:

Incredible




Truely haunting!!! An abyss of an eye!
Climatology is finally winning. Iselle will most likely hit the Big Island as a TS.
Quoting 124. VAbeachhurricanes:

Probably no longer a hurricane

Time: 19:33:00Z
Coordinates: 19.3167N 151.4333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 696.9 mb (~ 20.58 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,160 meters (~ 10,367 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1007.5 mb (~ 29.75 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 119%uFFFD at 65 knots (From the ESE at ~ 74.8 mph)
Air Temp: 8.2%uFFFDC (~ 46.8%uFFFDF)
Dew Pt: 6.2%uFFFDC (~ 43.2%uFFFDF)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 67 knots (~ 77.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 49 knots (~ 56.3 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 2 mm/hr (~ 0.08 in/hr)


I was thinking 60-70 mph based solely off satellite.

Although, Bertha did make me question everything I thought I knew about reading satellites. . .
We'll have to see how well this new-firing convection holds up.
Quoting 74. catastropheadjuster:

I read somewhere I forgot but it said over there near Hawaii there's gonna be a astronomical high tide to. Does anyone know how this will effect things?

sheri
The tide will be around 2ft. expected storm surge for the big island is in the 1-3 ft range.




Jim Cantore better move from the big Island since he won't see much action.

990 to 1007 mb in what, 3 hours? That doesn't sound right, I can see Iselle is weakening, but it isn't disintegrating.
eh, those cooling cloud tops tell me not so fast on a downgrade to T.S.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Its hard to imagine living in a place that receives over 400 inches of rain a year. That's around 8 times the yearly rainfall that we get in Central Florida. There must be some beautiful rainforest jungles in those extreme wet areas of Hawaii. I wouldn't mind living in that though to be honest. I hate drought.



Hi Jed! Not as impressive, but sections of the Blue mountains here in Jamaica, can receive in excess of 5000 mm (200 inches) annually. While coastal regions (north east) can exceed 3500 mm

Quoting EdMahmoud:
990 to 1007 mb in what, 3 hours? That doesn't sound right, I can see Iselle is weakening, but it isn't disintegrating.

Pressures are still around 990 per recon 
Iselle



Julio

Quoting 113. Jedkins01:



Its hard to imagine living in a place that receives over 400 inches of rain a year. That's around 8 times the yearly rainfall that we get in Central Florida. There must be some beautiful rainforest jungles in those extreme wet areas of Hawaii. I wouldn't mind living in that though to be honest. I hate drought.
most of it is received through passing showers in the trade wind flow during the night and early morning hours. then there are times like this;the islands received record-setting rain throughout March 2006. On Kauai, Mount Waialeale (one of the wettest places on earth) set an all-time monthly record of 93.71 inches of rain.
Quoting 115. Bama684:

Tropical Trivia: What is the only Hurricane to hit both the United States mainland and Hawaii????
Do you count Dora?
Iselle is still a hurricane, recon finds that it is still at 986 mb in terms of pressure and hurricane force winds are still present, I see them holding it at 80 mph with 986 mb at the 11 AM HDT advisory...
Quoting 131. dfwstormwatch:

eh, those cooling cloud tops tell me not so fast on a downgrade to T.S.

I doesn't really matter. Hawaii is not use to tropical cyclones like Iselle and whether it hits as a hurricane or a tropical storm, the impacts could be pretty significant.
Quoting Waltanater:
Now all Hawaii needs is a major earthquake, volcanic eruption or tsunami! LMAO! If this can be 'timed' during the hurricane strikes, it would be most efficient!


And maybe even a Blizzard at the highest of elevations. You could experience them all in one day. Now that would be my kind of vacation.
Quoting 115. Bama684:

Tropical Trivia: What is the only Hurricane to hit both the United States mainland and Hawaii????


I guess I stumped everyone!!! That's because it was a trick question!! Currently, no hurricane has ever made landfall in the continental United States and then went on to also make landfall in Hawaii!!! You learn something new everyday!!!!
EP, 09, 2014080718, 01, CARQ, 0, 187N, 1515W, 70, 990, HU,
don't know if anyone posted this already, but ATCF still says its at 80 mph.
Quoting 141. Sfloridacat5:



And maybe even a Blizzard at the highest of elevations. You could experience them all in one day. Now that would be my kind of vacation.


4.4 Hit north of Hilo this morning.....
Seriously....
I don't think the central pressure is up to 1007 mb yet.

AF309 0609C ISELLE HDOB 25 20140807
194500 1851N 15158W 6963 03057 9896 +125 +092 140026 029 031 001 00
194530 1850N 15159W 6970 03045 9900 +121 +091 129018 024 027 002 03
194600 1848N 15201W 6967 03052 9900 +123 +089 152006 013 020 002 00
194630 1847N 15202W 6974 03044 9909 +115 +090 229004 005 018 001 03
194700 1846N 15203W 6963 03057 9900 +123 +086 241007 009 017 001 00
194730 1845N 15204W 6958 03067 9895 +129 +083 251009 011 018 000 03
194800 1843N 15206W 6965 03061 9895 +131 +080 273010 010 018 001 03
194830 1842N 15207W 6977 03046 9900 +132 +078 287011 012 024 001 00
194900 1841N 15208W 6966 03065 9908 +129 +077 282018 021 032 002 00
194930 1840N 15210W 6962 03077 9926 +116 +079 294020 023 042 001 03
195000 1838N 15211W 6968 03075 9936 +115 +079 303027 029 047 002 00
195030 1837N 15212W 6972 03074 9942 +117 +078 313029 032 048 000 00
195100 1836N 15213W 6966 03091 9954 +113 +077 316038 040 048 000 00
195130 1835N 15215W 6970 03092 9955 +118 +074 308040 041 046 002 00
195200 1833N 15216W 6965 03104 9978 +104 +075 302040 041 045 002 00
195230 1832N 15217W 6966 03109 9991 +098 +081 303036 038 043 001 00
195300 1831N 15218W 6967 03113 9998 +095 +081 306035 035 042 001 00
195330 1830N 15220W 6969 03115 0006 +095 +078 306036 037 040 001 03
195400 1829N 15221W 6966 03121 0014 +090 +082 309035 037 040 001 00
195430 1827N 15222W 6967 03125 0040 +080 //// 312033 034 038 005 05
$$

Iselle


Lonely Genevieve in the vastness of the Pacific - fortunately no land for her to hit!
Quoting 139. dfwstormwatch:

Iselle is still a hurricane, recon finds that it is still at 986 mb in terms of pressure and hurricane force winds are still present, I see them holding it at 80 mph with 986 mb at the 11 AM HDT advisory...


What? Where?
Storm is a little tilted with height, lowest pressure after wind shift

Time: 19:48:00Z
Coordinates: 18.7167N 152.1W
Acft. Static Air Press: 696.5 mb (~ 20.57 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,061 meters (~ 10,043 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 989.5 mb (~ 29.22 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 273° at 10 knots (From the W at ~ 11.5 mph)
Air Temp: 13.1°C (~ 55.6°F)
Dew Pt: 8.0°C (~ 46.4°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 10 knots (~ 11.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 18 knots* (~ 20.7 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr* (~ 0.04 in/hr*)
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
322 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014

FLZ047-053-147-072000-
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-OSCEOLA-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
322 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014

...FUNNEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE OVER BREVARD COUNTY...NORTHEASTERN OSCEOLA
COUNTY...

AT 318 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FUNNEL CLOUDS...STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING OVER CANAVERAL GROVES...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD DOWN THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE AND AFFECT AREAS NEAR INTERSTATE 95 DOWN TO COCOA...ROCKLEDGE
AND VIERA.

LOCAL ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF LANDSPOUT FORMATION. A LANDSPOUT IS A TORNADO OF VERY
SHORT DURATION AND WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 60 MPH WHICH CAN CAUSE
MINOR DAMAGE AND INJURIES IN ITS DIRECT PATH. STAY TUNED TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL MEDIA FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.
Hurricane Iselle

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:

- Lowest 150m: 159 gpm - 9 gpm (522 geo. feet - 30 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 115° (from the ESE)
- Wind Speed: 71 knots (82 mph)
Dropsonde Location: Dropped in maximum wind band.

996mb (Surface) 105° (from the ESE) 64 knots (74 mph)
Will be interesting to watch whether Iselle will be influenced by those volcanic gasses as well:

Gasses from Kilauea volcano affected tropical storm Flossie formation
Science Daily, Date: July 29, 2014
Source: University of Hawaii ‑ SOEST
Summary: One might assume that a tropical storm moving through volcanic smog would sweep up the tainted air and march on, unchanged. However, a recent study from atmospheric scientists revealed that, though microscopic, gasses and particles from Kilauea volcano exerted an influence on Tropical Storm Flossie -- affecting the formation of thunderstorms and lightning in the sizable storm. ...

Hurricane Julio.



Winds are 80-90 knots just above the surface. Places like Mauna Kea could still get hammered. 
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URPN12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 19:59Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 09C in 2014
Storm Name: Iselle (flight in the North Central Pacific basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 07
A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 19:46:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°47'N 152°01'W (18.7833N 152.0167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 210 miles (339 km) to the ESE (108°) from Hilo, on the island of Hawaii, HI, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,015m (9,892ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 60kts (~ 69.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the NE (49°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 143° at 69kts (From the SE at ~ 79.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the NE (49°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 991mb (29.26 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1.5 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 69kts (~ 79.4mph) in the quadrant at 0:49
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
MAX FL WIND 69 KT 049 / 18 NM 19:41:00Z
CTR DROPSONDE SFC WND 155/12
Quoting 147. VAbeachhurricanes:



What? Where?


If you learn how the HDOBs work, you can see that someone's Vortex message of 1007 mb pressure is wrong, plus if you hit refresh a lot, you can see if an invest has a closed circulation before the first Vortex message every comes out.

I knew that 1007 mb was wrong, HDOBs (high density obs) confirmed it was still sub-990 mb.
Quoting 156. EdMahmoud:



If you learn how the HDOBs work, you can see that someone's Vortex message of 1007 mb pressure is wrong, plus if you hit refresh a lot, you can see if an invest has a closed circulation before the first Vortex message every comes out.

I knew that 1007 mb was wrong, HDOBs (high density obs) confirmed it was still sub-990 mb.


I know how HDOBs work... no one made a vortex message claim of 1007 mb...
Quoting 153. CybrTeddy:

Hurricane Julio.






Almost looks a little annular.....
Quoting 153. CybrTeddy:

Hurricane Julio.





Looks great! It's likely on the verge of becoming a major.
Quoting 153. CybrTeddy:

Hurricane Julio.






Nice looking guy. Will he manage to catch up to those mighty women Genevieve and Iselle?
Quoting 140. Ameister12:


I doesn't really matter. Hawaii is not use to tropical cyclones like Iselle and whether it hits as a hurricane or a tropical storm, the impacts could be pretty significant.


As previously stated, the main threat should be for flooding associated with heavy rainfall. But as of right now, the CPHC is calling for 5 to 8 inches, with isolated amounts of up to 12. That seems to be rather in line with Flossie's max of 9 inches across the big island. Also, because Iselle is moving at a pretty good clip . . . 17mph. . . that should help some.

Historically, the drowning from rough surf has been the biggest killer in Hawaii, and regarding the potential dangers of this storm my personal biggest concern is that she just skims the western most islands, causing people to underestimate the impact and venture out into the surf.
Quoting 159. tornadodude:



Almost looks a little annular..
]

No it doesn't..
Quoting 164. HurrTracker13:

]

No it doesn't..


Sarcasm is a lost art.. lol I was being facetious
Center of Iselle can now be seen on radar.
I think Hurricane Julio may be affected by the TUTT!
Quoting 157. VAbeachhurricanes:



I know how HDOBs work... no one made a vortex message claim of 1007 mb...


Excuuuuuuuuse me.
Quoting 162. Stormchaser2007:

http://i300.photobucket.com/albums/nn39/Stormchas er20079/2014%20Hurricane%20Season/ScreenHunter_86A ug071612.png



Genevieve is amazing to look at, classic category five hurricane in the west Pacific Ocean.
18Z NAM is still showing the wave moving through the Caribbean. It's been very consistant about the Islands getting some rain in the next several days.
Tropical wave over the southern windward Islands indicates some form of surface circulation trying to form and bet 850mb vorticity is co located over this area. Levi is right, this wave needs to be watched as it heads WNW for Jamaica.
Quoting 125. barbamz:



Truely haunting!!! An abyss of an eye!
Astounding looks like a disc.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 AUG 2014 Time : 190000 UTC
Lat : 17:07:12 N Lon : 137:12:29 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 959.5mb/104.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 5.6 5.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

Center Temp : +7.1C Cloud Region Temp : -60.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 75km
- Environmental MSLP : 1013mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 20.2 degrees
Quoting 152. barbamz:

Will be interesting to watch whether Iselle will be influenced by those volcanic gasses as well:

Gasses from Kilauea volcano affected tropical storm Flossie formation
Science Daily, Date: July 29, 2014
Source: University of Hawaii ‑ SOEST
Summary: One might assume that a tropical storm moving through volcanic smog would sweep up the tainted air and march on, unchanged. However, a recent study from atmospheric scientists revealed that, though microscopic, gasses and particles from Kilauea volcano exerted an influence on Tropical Storm Flossie -- affecting the formation of thunderstorms and lightning in the sizable storm. ...


here is the SO2 animation
here is the SO4 animation
176. FOREX
Quoting 172. TheDawnAwakening:

Tropical wave over the southern windward Islands indicates some form of surface circulation trying to form and bet 850mb vorticity is co located over this area. Levi is right, this wave needs to be watched as it heads WNW for Jamaica.
Has Grothar stamped this as an actual wave yet?
Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
Tropical wave over the southern windward Islands indicates some form of surface circulation trying to form and bet 850mb vorticity is co located over this area. Levi is right, this wave needs to be watched as it heads WNW for Jamaica.


Maybe it will provide some beneficial rain to us here in Jamaica.
Julio will likely be upgraded to a major hurricane in the next advisory.
Quoting 174. Climate175:




There is a turning of surface winds near the Islands, indicating potential development, highest wind shear values in the Caribbean Sea are 20 knots now, no more 30-40 knot values.
Quoting 175. abcdeer:

here is the SO2 animation
here is the SO4 animation


Means: not much in the moment?
Quoting 171. Sfloridacat5:

18Z NAM is still showing the wave moving through the Caribbean. It's been very consistant about the Islands getting some rain in the next several days.

Something to watch down the road, especially if it gets into that high heat content.
Low level convergence present along the wave axis, SErly wind converging with northeasterly winds.
Quoting 178. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Julio will likely be upgraded to a major hurricane in the next advisory.


Don't know if it can survive its interaction with the TUTT.


The blue marble with Genevieve, Iselle, Julio - and Hawaii somewhere in between.
Hurricane ISELLE Advisory Number 31
Issued at 1100 AM HST THU AUG 07 2014
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location: 18.9N 152.2W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
Maximum sustained winds: 75 MPH...120 KM/H
Present movement: WNW or 285 degrees AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
Minimum central pressure: 991 MB...29.27 INCHES
186. FOREX
Quoting 182. TheDawnAwakening:

Low level convergence present along the wave axis, SErly wind converging with northeasterly winds.


Where?
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JULIO ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014
200 PM PDT THU AUG 07 2014

...JULIO CONTINUING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 137.7W
ABOUT 1155 MI...1855 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
JULIO.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 137.7 WEST. JULIO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND A GENERAL WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Quoting 180. barbamz:



Means: not much in the moment?
yeah the northeast then northerly flow will keep most of it south. only as the directions switches to the southeast will it travel up and over the islands. at this point it doesnt look like much..but who knows how much you need really. only if iselle took flossies path.
WTPZ35 KNHC 072043
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JULIO ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014
200 PM PDT THU AUG 07 2014

...JULIO CONTINUING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 137.7W
ABOUT 1155 MI...1855 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES

Quoting 176. FOREX:

Has Grothar stamped this as an actual wave yet?


Two days ago. Pay attention.

Getting a formidable eye.

194. FOREX
Quoting 192. Grothar:




Has stormjunkie called this a trash wave yet? lol
Hilo getting some rain in the radar
For a long time I didn't post the FIM:

initial (Hawaii DOOM):



42 hrs. (Japan DOOM):



168 hrs. Julio still trucking along and a new system forming in the wake of Genevieve.

198. SLU
Quoting 107. stoormfury:

SLU what are you seeing east of the islands? very robust tropical wave at 20W


I've been watching this wave all day. It has some good form and lots of popcorn suggesting upward motion. We didn't see that sort of activity near the islands in August 2013 at all.



Back-to-Back Hurricanes Menace Hawaii in Vacation Season
Bloomberg News, by Brian K. Sullivan, Lynn Doan and Isis Almeida August 07, 2014
Pair of hurricanes bearing down on Hawaii has grounded flights and closed tourist areas while threatening floods, landslides and blackouts during the heart of vacation season.
Hurricane Iselle’s top winds are 80 miles (129 kilometers) per hour, down from 85 mph, and it was 255 miles east-southeast of Hilo as of 8 a.m. local time, the U.S. Central Pacific Hurricane Center said. It is forecast to strike the Big Island overnight, and if it retains hurricane strength it would be the first such system to hit Hawaii since 1992.
Farther to the east, Hurricane Julio grew stronger, with top winds reaching 105 mph, making it a Category 2 storm on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale, the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said. It was 1,235 miles east of Hilo.
“Iselle is down to a Category 1; it continues to move pretty quickly,” said Paul Walker, a meteorologist at AccuWeather Inc. in State College, Pennsylvania. “It will be making landfall this evening Hawaiian Standard Time. They will have winds exceeding 75 miles per hour, especially at the high elevations, and possible widespread and long-lasting power outages.”
Hawaii closed all government offices tomorrow as well as schools on Oahu and Kauai, Governor Neil Abercrombie said on his website. Primary elections scheduled for Aug. 9 will still be held. ...
NASA's Fermi and Aqua satellites captured two different views of bursts of strength show by Hurricane Julio as it intensified. NASA's Fermi satellite saw a gamma-ray flash from Julio, while NASA's Aqua satellite saw Julio become more structurally organized as a hurricane.

This type of outburst is known as a terrestrial gamma-ray flash (TGF). Produced by the powerful electric fields in thunderstorms, TGFs last only a few thousandths of a second but emit gamma rays that make up the highest-energy naturally-occurring light on Earth. Scientists estimate that, on average, about 1,100 TGFs occur each day.

While the Pacific is cranking out the storms some chilly news from way down under... Thirteen members of the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) were trapped and in danger of freezing to death when their base, Halley VI, lost power. Article Link That would have been a terrible tragedy if they would not have been able to fix the generator(s)

Quoting 194. FOREX:



Has stormjunkie called this a trash wave yet? lol


Rubbish rainshowers about to enter the Carib dead zone. ;-)

Afternoon all.
Quoting SLU:


I've been watching this wave all day. It has some good form and lots of popcorn suggesting upward motion. We didn't see that sort of activity near the islands in August 2013 at all.





NAM jumped on that wave 2 days ago. Don't know if it will amount to much once it gets beyond the Islands.
18Z NAM at 84 hours - wave still holding together and approaching the the Western Caribbean.
Also there appears to be another wave moving through the Islands.
Hawaii Braces For Hurricane Iselle, Hurricane Julio
NBC video, lately
Hawaii braced for what could be the first hurricane to slam the state in nearly a quarter-century Thursday as islanders scrambled to stock up on supplies and take shelter. Hurricane Iselle, a Category 1 storm, was expected to hit the Big Island on Thursday evening with a second Category 2 storm, Julio, close on its tail, according to the National Weather Service. Iselle loomed southeast of Hilo and was churning at a speed of 18 mph, forecasters said. It is expected to wallop the state with heavy rains, winds gusting up to 85 mph and potentially dangerous flash flooding.
At a news conference Thursday, state officials called on islanders to hunker down ahead of the fast-moving storm, which could be the first hurricane to thump Hawaii since Hurricane Iniki made landfall in 1992. Governor Neil Abercrombie said that emergency crews were standing at the ready and “fully prepared” for a rough night ahead, stressing that “this is not some game.” The two looming storms have shaken up the tourism industry and disrupted summer vacation plans. Education officials said public schools on the Big Island, Maui, Molokai and Lanai will be closed Thursday.
As islanders descended on grocery stores and other merchants for bottled water and batteries early Thursday, a magnitude 4.5 earthquake shook Waimea on the eastern shore of the Big Island, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. The tremor didn’t cause major damage or injuries, but the 6:30 a.m. jolt rattled residents who were busy running last-minute trips to Costco and filling up their cars with gas. Islanders were boarding up their homes amid warnings that Iselle could lash roofs and windows with harsh rain and fierce winds. ...
Quoting 202. StormJunkie:



Rubbish rainshowers about to enter the Carib dead zone. ;-)

Afternoon all.


I knew you would be on as soon as we posted that. :)
208. SLU
Quoting 203. Sfloridacat5:



NAM jumped on that wave 2 days ago. Don't know if it will amount to much once it gets beyond the Islands.
18Z NAM at 84 hours - wave still holding together and approaching the the Western Caribbean.
Also there appears to be another wave moving through the Islands.



Most of the models caught it several days too but they all kill it once it gets past 75W.


Latest GFS forecast on Ex-Bertha (blog reaction: "excuse me - who, exactly?" lol) for the night of Sunday to Monday (this is Europe btw).
Good night, stay safe in the Pacific!



Ex-hurricane Bertha tracks towards UK
BBC weather video, 7 August 2014 Last updated at 17:48
A former hurricane is tracking towards the UK bringing stormy weather this weekend.
BBC Weather's John Hammond has the latest thoughts on its timing and track.
210. FOREX
Garbage GFS running.
the NCEP Ensembles have latched on the wave coming off Africa that the Euro was showing as well..

12z CMC Ensembles..


Tropical Cyclone Activity Is Not Expected During the Next 700 Hours
Quoting SLU:


Most of the models caught it several days too but they all kill it once it gets past 75W.


Yes, a couple days ago the NAM had the wave following a Bertha like path affecting Puerto Rico and then D.R./Haiti.
But now it takes (or keeps) the wave south of the Islands heading for the Western Caribbean.

There's only a small chance this forecast pans out, but I'd like to see something get to the Western Caribbean or especially the S.E. GOM (where shear is light, air is moist, water is hot).
Quoting 209. barbamz:



Latest GFS forecast on Ex-Bertha (blog reaction: "excuse me - who, exactly?" lol) for the night of Sunday to Monday.
Good night, stay safe in the Pacific!



Ex-hurricane Bertha tracks towards UK
BBC weather video, 7 August 2014 Last updated at 17:48
A former hurricane is tracking towards the UK bringing stormy weather this weekend.
BBC Weather's John Hammond has the latest thoughts on its timing and track.

I wonder if there are good places to surf in the U.K. I had visions of sailing around the world and surfing where ever possible...I am getting older, but would still do it if fate permitted it...:)
later all..

12z Euro
Quoting 213. slavicthunder:

Tropical Cyclone Activity Is Not Expected During the Next 700 Hours
The CMC has one at 699.
A tropical storm or hurricane warning means those conditions are expected in the area. Warnings are typically issued 36 hours in advance of the onset of tropical storm-force winds. When a warning is issued, you should complete all storm preparations and, if directed by local officials, evacuate the area immediately.

Against expectations, Iselle regained some of the strength Wednesday it had earlier lost. However, it is now slowly weakening again. As of 2 p.m. PDT (11 a.m. Hawaiian Standard Time), Iselle's maximum sustained winds had diminished to 75 mph, still a Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Air Force Hurricane Hunters measured a 74-mph wind at sea level shortly before 10 a.m. in a reconnaissance flight through Iselle.

Iselle is roughly 195 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. The hurricane is moving quickly, between 15 and 20 mph, and steering currents are expected to continue to take Iselle on a west-northwest track over the next few days.

Latest from the recon in Iselle. Still looking "canish", no?
Quoting 215. hydrus:

I wonder if there are good places to surf in the U.K. I had visions of sailing around the world and surfing where ever possible...I am getting older, but would still do it if fate permitted it...:)


Sure there are, hydrus :-) Link

Sometimes maybe a bit too challenging:
Sea Fever -Surf Film (Big waves in UK & Ireland) - Tim Davies
(From HIlo)

Hurricane Warning
Statement as of 11:51 AM HST on August 07, 2014
...Hurricane Warning remains in effect...

...Precautionary/preparedness actions... precautionary/preparedness actions...

Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion now.

Secure any remaining outdoor objects that could become airborne debris. Close shutters and brace garage doors.

If staying in a home...turn the refrigerator to maximum cold and keep it closed. Fill the bathtub with water for cleaning and Flushing in case the tap water becomes unavailable.

If evacuating to a designated shelter...leave as soon as possible. Do not get stuck on the roads when the dangerous winds and torrential rains arrive. Pounding surf may result in Road closures...even well before the hurricane arrives.

Stay out of streams...rivers...and low-lying flood prone areas.

...Winds... based on the latest forecast track...winds over 40 mph are expected over the area late this afternoon and evening. In some areas...winds will be as high as 60 to 70 mph with gusts to 85 mph tonight.

Damaging winds are expected. Some damage to building structures could occur...primarily to unanchored structures...such as school portables. Some damage is likely to poorly constructed signs. Loose items left outdoors will become projectiles...causing additional damage. Persons struck by windborne debris risk injury and possible death. Numerous large branches of healthy trees will snap. Some trees will be uprooted...especially where the ground is saturated. Many areas will likely experience power outages with some downed power poles.

Gusts will be strongest over mountain terrain...through passes...and where winds blow downslope. Winds affecting the upper floors of high rise buildings will be significantly stronger than those near ground level.

...Storm surge and storm tide... surf will steadily increase along The Big Island windward coast this afternoon... and reach very dangerous levels of 15 to 25 feet tonight as Iselle reaches the coast. The astronomical high tide for Hilo Bay is 120 PM at 2.8 feet today and 203 PM at 3.0 feet Friday. The high surf and high tide combination will bring coastal flooding along low lying areas. Storm surge is expected to reach 1 to 2 feet during the storm passage...adding to the threat of coastal flooding and coastal property damage this afternoon and tonight.

...Inland flooding... a Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the entire area. Heavy rainfall of around 5 to 8 inches is expected with isolated rainfall totals of 12 inches. These heavy rains could lead to life threatening flash floods.
Holding its own. Very interested to see if this hits as a hurricane.
Quoting opal92nwf:


NWS radar long range loop has a pretty good view of the ragged eye.
With a approaching hurricane coming for Hawaii I'm surprised at the lack of coverage on the media and the lack of Activity on the blog.Even some invest in the past has had more coverage than this storm.Come on Wu.
Quoting 215. hydrus:

I wonder if there are good places to surf in the U.K. I had visions of sailing around the world and surfing where ever possible...I am getting older, but would still do it if fate permitted it...:)


Guessing you've seen this?

big ?
Quoting 227. washingtonian115:

With a approaching hurricane coming for Hawaii I'm surprised at the lack of coverage on the media and the lack of Activity on the blog.Even some invest in the past has had more coverage than this storm.Come on Wu.

IKR
Quoting 226. Sfloridacat5:



NWS radar long range loop has a pretty good view of the ragged eye.

Looked here but can't see it. Can you show me the link?
Quoting 231. opal92nwf:


Looked here but can't see it. Can you show me the link?

Nevermind, I see it was posted down below.
Quoting 224. DonnieBwkGA:

Wonder if Mauna Kea will get snow. It will be close.
dont think it will be cold enough.
current observations

Radar Scope is a great App. The center is in range, about 150 miles from the coast..Ya'll stay safe..
The strongest wind gusts in Hurricane Iselle might occur in the in the highest elevations on the big Island of Hawaii, and in-between the biggest mountain passes!

Will night-time bring the chance for more last-minute organization? Convection might flare up one more time .... right at landfall.
Quoting 227. washingtonian115:

With a approaching hurricane coming for Hawaii I'm surprised at the lack of coverage on the media and the lack of Activity on the blog.Even some invest in the past has had more coverage than this storm.Come on Wu.


Eh, Wash, now I'm a bit offended, lol. I've posted SEVERAL posts on Hawaii and Iselle (and others did so too), though I'm really on the other side of the world. Have a nice and safe evening for good now, bye! ;-)

More Google News
I wonder if Iselle might pull a Genevieve once she's done with Hawaii.

You have a nice and safe night as well Barbamz.Don't worry I've seen you chip in on Iselle.
Quoting 228. StormJunkie:



Guessing you've seen this?


Never...And thank you very much for posting..I love to surf, but i,ll pass on the glacier surfing..:)
No sooner than they post the current outlook and Iselle puts up another hot tower and starts wrapping it around its very stubborn eye feature. It'll be a close call on whether it actually landfalls as a hurricane or a tropical storm.
and julio isnt a major hurricane why?
Quoting opal92nwf:
Holding its own. Very interested to see if this hits as a hurricane.


Look at the convection refiring yet again south of the center. If anything this thing deserves to hit Hawaii at hurricane strength. Must be determined or something. Its stubborn retention of power approaching the state from the east has been remarkable.
Quoting opal92nwf:

Looked here but can't see it. Can you show me the link?


Go to the NHC web page. Then pick your location. Then click long range images.

http://radar.weather.gov/

Quoting 224. DonnieBwkGA:

Wonder if Mauna Kea will get snow. It will be close.

No way. This is a warm core storm. In fact, I just saw an observation from the mountain showing it was 80 F. This may not have been at the top though. It will rain like heck up there.
Quoting 240. wunderweatherman123:

and julio isnt a major hurricane why?

Sure looks like one, doesn't it.
"The atlantic is quiet"

.-.

Quoting 241. wxgeek723:



Look at the convection refiring yet again south of the center. If anything this thing deserves to hit Hawaii at hurricane strength. Must be determined or something. Its stubborn retention of power approaching the state from the east has been remarkable.


It looks like Dorian from 2013.
Quoting 225. opal92nwf:

Holding its own. Very interested to see if this hits as a hurricane.

it looks like she's getting a tad stronger but the storms coc thunderstorms have been waxing and waning all day
Quoting 215. hydrus:

I wonder if there are good places to surf in the U.K. I had visions of sailing around the world and surfing where ever possible...I am getting older, but would still do it if fate permitted it...:)


There are. Fantastic waves. Check youtube. The real gem is Ireland. There are several surf shops with online surf cams. Bundoran is probably the most famous break.
250. MahFL
Quoting 215. hydrus:

I wonder if there are good places to surf in the U.K. I had visions of sailing around the world and surfing where ever possible...I am getting older, but would still do it if fate permitted it...:)


Tynemouth Longslands is a good place, I used to live there.

Link

"Longsands has developed a national reputation as surf destination and has staged national championships"
The models are definitely starting to hint at life off Africa in 7-10 days, all of them. One thing I'm noticing is the high latitude the models show the waves coming off at though, in some cases north of the CV islands. That's bad for development, it's cold and stable up there. Even further south it would be a struggle to get much more than quick spin-ups from what I'm seeing, but it's something to watch.

Quoting 252. MAweatherboy1:

The models are definitely starting to hint at life off Africa in 7-10 days, all of them. One thing I'm noticing is the high latitude the models show them coming off at though, in some cases north of the CV islands. That's bad for development, it's cold and stable up there. Even further south it would be a struggle to get much more than quick spin-ups from what I'm seeing, but it's something to watch.


either the models have a northern bias or if not whatever that will will litereally dive into a SAL pool
Quoting BayFog:

No way. This is a warm core storm. In fact, I just saw an observation from the mountain showing it was 80 F. This may not have been at the top though. It will rain like heck up there.


Saw a temperature of (1.4C, 34.5 degrees at 4092m - James Clerk Maxwell Telescope (JCMT) ) at one of the higher elevation areas on Mauna Kea.

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/current/
Quoting 196. joshweather1222:

Hilo getting some rain in the radar

Iselle pushed out a rainband. Not much pressure change yet even with the band.
Meanwhile in the Atlantic..
259. MahFL
Hawaii is about to get chomped, but they are used to windy weather.

260. 1344
Convection appears to be on the rise with Iselle.
Quoting 257. washingtonian115:

Meanwhile in the Atlantic..

Wildfires from Canada could make for a good sunset tonight, should be quite nice.
Quoting 257. washingtonian115:

Meanwhile in the Atlantic..



Saw the coolest hail storm of my lifetime, dime sized hail on Cape Cod, MA. Very rare even for the summer time here in SNE.
Saw actually two hail storms today, the first one brought some hail, the next one covered the ground.
its starting to pick up now

Whoa. Winter-style Pac NW storm incoming on the long-range GFS.



But then it even takes that moisture into CA.

Quoting 255. Sfloridacat5:



Saw a temperature of (1.4C, 34.5 degrees at 4092m - James Clerk Maxwell Telescope (JCMT) ) at one of the higher elevation areas on Mauna Kea.

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/current/
its possibly a little warmer now. hasnt been updated for 3hrs
Based on radar the eye of Hurricane Iselle has collaped in on itself.Iselle had a ragged eye feature for the past couple hours but that's now gone.

Quoting 265. TimSoCal:

Whoa. Winter-style Pac NW storm incoming on the long-range GFS.



But then it even takes that moisture into CA.


Did someone say Winter ?
Quoting 262. TheDawnAwakening:



Saw the coolest hail storm of my lifetime, dime sized hail on Cape Cod, MA. Very rare even for the summer time here in SNE.

What a day for the storms up here, huh? Just got a little bit of pea sized hail where I am southwest of Boston but it was so cool to watch these things pulse up and down. Practically every storm had hail, it was just so cold aloft. SPC was asleep at the wheel for our area today, they didn't even give us a "see text" until the 20z outlook, after many of the best storms!
The radar imagery over the southeast portion of the biggest island of Hawaii may be partly obstructed by the high elevation from viewing the hurricane as well as other areas in the radar range. We may be a bit fooled by the images, but don't be fooled, some areas will get torrential rains from Iselle.
For example, already, the radar appears to show only light rains starting to reach the island with less than 0.10 accumulation over Hilo.
However, the last report out of Hilo indicates almost 0.50 of rain so far at Hilo with currently a heavy downpour by most recent report.

Heavy Rain Fog/Mist

78°F

26°C

Humidity87%
Wind SpeedN 15 G 25 mph
Barometer29.96 in (1014.5 mb)
Dewpoint74°F (23°C)
Visibility2.00 mi
Heat Index80°F (27°C)

Last Update on 7 Aug 11:53 am HST

Current conditions at

Hilo International Airport (PHTO)

Lat: 19.72°N Lon: 155.07°W Elev: 30ft.

More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather
Quoting 269. MAweatherboy1:


What a day for the storms up here, huh? Just got a little bit of pea sized hail where I am southwest of Boston but it was so cool to watch these things pulse up and down. Practically every storm had hail, it was just so cold aloft. SPC was asleep at the wheel for our area today, they didn't even give us a "see text" until the 20z outlook, after many of the best storms!


I know it was a great day for those who seek out the extreme nature of weather. Dime sized hail is pretty big for this region of Cape Cod, MA. The previous storm brought pea sized hail, its rare to see two severe thunderstorms in the same afternoon.
Quoting 269. MAweatherboy1:


What a day for the storms up here, huh? Just got a little bit of pea sized hail where I am southwest of Boston but it was so cool to watch these things pulse up and down. Practically every storm had hail, it was just so cold aloft. SPC was asleep at the wheel for our area today, they didn't even give us a "see text" until the 20z outlook, after many of the best storms!


That reminds me of the case with tropical storm Debby here, after numerous rotating cells moving onshore and multiple tornado touch downs, the SPC issued a late tornado watch. The NWS in Ruskin had to call them to finally get them to issue it.

The NHC was behind the ball on it too, parts of the Tampa Bay area was already seeing full on tropical storm conditions before the NHC issued tropical storm warnings. The NWS unfortunately had to constantly issue severe thunderstorm warnings because of this for the strong cells moving onshore until tropical storm warnings went up.
Quoting abcdeer:
its possibly a little warmer now. hasnt been updated for 3hrs


You can look at the graph. Looks like temps warm to the 40s during the day and near freezing at night. That's based on the past 24 hours.
Quoting 270. Jedkins01:

The radar imagery over the southeast portion of the biggest island of Hawaii may be partly obstructed by the high elevation from viewing the hurricane as well as other areas in the radar range. We may be a bit fooled by the images, but don't be fooled, some areas will get torrential rains from Iselle.
For example, already, the radar appears to show only light rains starting to reach the island with less than 0.10 accumulation over Hilo.
However, the last report out of Hilo indicates almost 0.50 of rain so far at Hilo with currently a heavy downpour by most recent report.

Heavy Rain Fog/Mist

78°F

26°C

Humidity87%
Wind SpeedN 15 G 25 mph
Barometer29.96 in (1014.5 mb)
Dewpoint74°F (23°C)
Visibility2.00 mi
Heat Index80°F (27°C)

Last Update on 7 Aug 11:53 am HST

Current conditions at

Hilo International Airport (PHTO)

Lat: 19.72°N Lon: 155.07°W Elev: 30ft.

More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather

composite will pick up what base cannot.
Long Range GFS then takes the CV disturbance across the Atlantic and then North on the Antilles and then takes an path up the east coast. It shows what the pattern is like now, if any storm were to form.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Based on radar the eye of Hurricane Iselle has collaped in on itself.Iselle had a ragged eye feature for the past couple hours but that's now gone.

I haven't seen Iselle since this morning since I was at the airport, flying, or driving until about a half hour ago. Compared to this morning, the storm looks much more ragged, with the entire south side being devoid of deep convection. Even with the increase in convection over the past hour or so, the storm appears to be just barely hanging on as a hurricane. I wouldn't be surprised to see it actually hit Hilo as a tropical storm. A pretty decent tropical storm for Hawaii, but not a hurricane.
Quoting 191. Grothar:

Getting a formidable eye.




OMG...reminds me Isabel when had 145 mph. serious!
Quoting 187. GTstormChaserCaleb:

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JULIO ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014
200 PM PDT THU AUG 07 2014

...JULIO CONTINUING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 137.7W
ABOUT 1155 MI...1855 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
JULIO.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 137.7 WEST. JULIO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND A GENERAL WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Having a hard time believing Julio only has a pressure of 970 mb and 105 mph winds. I'm thinking more like 115 and a pressure of 950-960 right now.
281. JRRP
Quoting 265. TimSoCal:

Whoa. Winter-style Pac NW storm incoming on the long-range GFS.



But then it even takes that moisture into CA.




Does it originate over northern Pacific. If so a rare summer North Shore swell may be put into play. There was a summer swell in the early/mid 1990's. Waimea Bay proper was breaking in the middle of summer.
283. xcool
http://khon2.com/live-stream/
Quoting 281. JRRP:


Watching closely.
Quoting barbamz:


Latest GFS forecast on Ex-Bertha (blog reaction: "excuse me - who, exactly?" lol) for the night of Sunday to Monday (this is Europe btw).
Good night, stay safe in the Pacific!



Ex-hurricane Bertha tracks towards UK
BBC weather video, 7 August 2014 Last updated at 17:48
A former hurricane is tracking towards the UK bringing stormy weather this weekend.
BBC Weather's John Hammond has the latest thoughts on its timing and track.
LOL. Thanks, Barb. I have been keeping half an eye on that low as it moves across the Atlantic. If it follows the track through the English Channel, it will be like an October storm in August. You've got to love English weather presenters though. No arm flapping or carrying on, just a straight forward explanation of what may happen. Some of our people could use lessons. :-)
286. 1344
Quoting 277. sar2401:

I haven't seen Iselle since this morning since I was at the airport, flying, or driving until about a half hour ago. Compared to this morning, the storm looks much more ragged, with the entire south side being devoid of deep convection. Even with the increase in convection over the past hour or so, the storm appears to be just barely hanging on as a hurricane. I wouldn't be surprised to see it actually hit Hilo as a tropical storm. A pretty decent tropical storm for Hawaii, but not a hurricane.


Wouldn't shock me either, but if convection increase a little more and does not decrease, it'll still be a hurricane at landfall.
The low expected low to come off the Carolinas.
I think it's safe to say Julio has become the East Pacific's fifth major hurricane. The eye has continued to warm, now up to 10C, while central convection has cooled slightly. Outflow is good to the east and excellent elsewhere.

Quoting 281. JRRP:


Is that a glitch?
The air immediately in front of Julio doesn't look too dry, and shear is very low over him. I hope we get a recon mission into him at some point. The only problem for him appears to be that he's over very marginal SSTs, 25.5-26C or so. The fact that he's become this strong is pretty impressive.

Quoting Grothar:
What's that TC genesis chance being shown up by Minnesota?
Floods sweep Sudan, destroying homes
BBC, 7 August 2014 Last updated at 21:12
Thousands of people have been forced from their homes in Sudan after violent storms deluged the country.
The flooding brought power outages while transport ground to a halt.
Quoting 281. JRRP:


Looks like Showtime for the Cape Verde season. This look like danger for the US or too early to tell?
The warming of the SST's just before Hawaii could very well aid in the maintenance of Iselle as a Hurricane (75MPH). Also of interest is the cooling of cloud tops over the past couple hours.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think it's safe to say Julio has become the East Pacific's fifth major hurricane. The eye has continued to warm, now up to 10C, while central convection has cooled slightly. Outflow is good to the east and excellent elsewhere.



2005 Atlantic Hurricane season, only this time in the Pacific (2014).
Quoting xcool:
http://khon2.com/live-stream/
Won't be live until 2:00 HST/7:00 CDT.


Julio looks like the next Major Hurricane in Eastern Pacific, IMO
Quoting 283. xcool:

http://khon2.com/live-stream/
http://livewire.kitv.com/Event/Pacific_Hurricane_ Tracker just showed the surf around the Hilo area. the waves were pretty nice and had a few people out.
Quoting 257. washingtonian115:

Meanwhile in the Atlantic..

Actually that looks a little too windy for the ATL right now.... :/
Iselle has continuously surprised me in holding her own against the dry air and cool water I think she may be on her last leg and will likely weaken to a TS before landfall but she still has the Dmax part of the diurnal cycle to run through and I am not ruling out another surprise.
I wouldn't be to surprised to see a post card from Iselle describing her time in Hawaii soon.
Quoting unknowncomic:
Looks like Showtime for the Cape Verde season. This look like danger for the US or too early to tell?
Way too early to tell. The GFS is 11.5 days out and the closest storm is still east of the Windwards, so that's an additional five days at least before it gets to PR and the USVI, and a week or more before it would likely get to someplace like Florida. The rule of thumb is still more than five days out, the track forecast falls to a little better than chance - and that's with a low actually in place. I know a lot of people are anxious to see another storm in the Atlantic, but 276 hour models are much more likely to be a disappointment than be informative.
Quoting 301. all4hurricanes:

Iselle has continuously surprised me in holding her own against the dry air and cool water I think she may be on her last leg and will likely weaken to a TS before landfall but she still has the Dmax part of the diurnal cycle to run through and I am not ruling out another surprise.


Agreed on the dry air. The SST's on the other hand are actually warming as Iselle approaches Hawaii.
Dry air not much of a problem, and maintaining convection. I don't see much change till landfall.
Quoting 303. sar2401:

Way too early to tell. The GFS is 11.5 days out and the closest storm is till east of the Windwards, so that's an additional five days at least before it gets to PR and the USVI, and a week or more before it would likely get to someplace like Florida. The rule of thumb is still more than five days out, the track forecast falls to a little better than chance - and that's with a low actually in place. I know a lot of people are anxious to another storm in the Atlantic, but 276 hour models are much more likely to be a disappointment than be informative.


Also of note, the GFS has been performing rather poorly when compared to models such as the Euro, ECMWF, and suprisingly the HWRF.
Quoting 305. opal92nwf:

Dry air not much of a problem, and maintaining convection. I don't see much change till landfall.



Moisture envelope actually seems to be expanding quite a bit over the past few frames
Still holding onto hurricane intensity. Landfall is only a few hours away. Will Iselle become the first hurricane to hit the Big Island on record?

Time: 23:01:30Z
Coordinates: 19.1667N 152.6W
Acft. Static Air Press: 696.2 mb (~ 20.56 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,113 meters (~ 10,213 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1004.7 mb (~ 29.67 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 140 at 70 knots (From the SE at ~ 80.5 mph)
Air Temp: 8.1C (~ 46.6F)
Dew Pt: 8.1C (~ 46.6F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 71 knots (~ 81.6 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 68 knots (~ 78.2 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 17 mm/hr (~ 0.67 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
CFS Game and Support is Strong.
Quoting opal92nwf:
Dry air not much of a problem, and maintaining convection. I don't see much change till landfall.
It looks like dry air that was sucked into the storm a little earlier for the east side is opening up a channel to the south. There also appears to be quite a bit of shear operating on the south side as shown by the high clouds blowing off to the south. That ball of convection is really the significant part of the storm, and that doesn't look like a hurricane to me.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Still holding onto hurricane intensity. Landfall is only a few hours away. Will Iselle become the first hurricane to hit the Big Island on record?

Time: 23:01:30Z
Coordinates: 19.1667N 152.6W
Acft. Static Air Press: 696.2 mb (~ 20.56 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,113 meters (~ 10,213 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1004.7 mb (~ 29.67 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 140� at 70 knots (From the SE at ~ 80.5 mph)
Air Temp: 8.1�C (~ 46.6�F)
Dew Pt: 8.1�C (~ 46.6�F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 71 knots (~ 81.6 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 68 knots (~ 78.2 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 17 mm/hr (~ 0.67 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
Are they still flying in the storm now?
I'm very curious as to Hawaii's Hurricane history prior to 1950.
Quoting 308. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Still holding onto hurricane intensity. Landfall is only a few hours away. Will Iselle become the first hurricane to hit the Big Island on record?

Time: 23:01:30Z
Coordinates: 19.1667N 152.6W
Acft. Static Air Press: 696.2 mb (~ 20.56 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,113 meters (~ 10,213 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1004.7 mb (~ 29.67 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 140� at 70 knots (From the SE at ~ 80.5 mph)
Air Temp: 8.1�C (~ 46.6�F)
Dew Pt: 8.1�C (~ 46.6�F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 71 knots (~ 81.6 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 68 knots (~ 78.2 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 17 mm/hr (~ 0.67 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

Doubtful it lasts as a hurricane. The eye has completely collapsed, all that's left is that tiny pocket of hurricane force winds NE of the center. Hopefully some of those colder tops die down before moving ashore though, those would definitely pose a heavy rain threat.

Quoting 308. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Still holding onto hurricane intensity. Landfall is only a few hours away. Will Iselle become the first hurricane to hit the Big Island on record?

Time: 23:01:30Z
Coordinates: 19.1667N 152.6W
Acft. Static Air Press: 696.2 mb (~ 20.56 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,113 meters (~ 10,213 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1004.7 mb (~ 29.67 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 140%uFFFD at 70 knots (From the SE at ~ 80.5 mph)
Air Temp: 8.1%uFFFDC (~ 46.6%uFFFDF)
Dew Pt: 8.1%uFFFDC (~ 46.6%uFFFDF)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 71 knots (~ 81.6 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 68 knots (~ 78.2 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 17 mm/hr (~ 0.67 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data


I think Iselle will maintain its intensity up to landfall. More intense convection is forming and expanding, like it did last night. The eye has collapsed but I'm waiting to see if it tries to reform as the late portion of satellite loops may be showing. The storm has a strong inner core and has been tenacious to last as long as it has as a hurricane.
Quoting 307. yankees440:



Moisture envelope actually seems to be expanding quite a bit over the past few frames
In the last few frames it almost looks like she's taking a swerve to the south -- like maybe the center won't actually touch land. I guess technically no landfall in that case, but she would be heading for a place where re-strengthening could happen.
Quoting 311. sar2401:

Are they still flying in the storm now?

Yeah.
well the 18z GFS has CV waves developing but WAY TOO FAR NORTH. perhaps a northern bias??
Quoting 252. MAweatherboy1:

The models are definitely starting to hint at life off Africa in 7-10 days, all of them. One thing I'm noticing is the high latitude the models show the waves coming off at though, in some cases north of the CV islands. That's bad for development, it's cold and stable up there. Even further south it would be a struggle to get much more than quick spin-ups from what I'm seeing, but it's something to watch.


Reminds me a little bit of the wave that became Gordon that it didn't develop until it was further north.
Quoting 314. Stoopid1:



I think Iselle will maintain its intensity up to landfall. More intense convection is forming and expanding, like it did last night. The storm has a strong inner core and has been tenacious to last as long as it has as a hurricane.

That's incorrect. Per visual observation looking at satellite, microwave data, and most importantly recon, the core has collapsed, probably due to dry air.

L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available'

In other words, there is no eye.
Quoting 303. sar2401:

Way too early to tell. The GFS is 11.5 days out and the closest storm is still east of the Windwards, so that's an additional five days at least before it gets to PR and the USVI, and a week or more before it would likely get to someplace like Florida. The rule of thumb is still more than five days out, the track forecast falls to a little better than chance - and that's with a low actually in place. I know a lot of people are anxious to see another storm in the Atlantic, but 276 hour models are much more likely to be a disappointment than be informative.


It's not so much the storm people are latching on to (we have no clue what it will do), but the fact all the models are showing stronger waves coming off Africa, indicating a possible ramp up in the CV season and general activity in the Atlantic.

Quoting 306. yankees440:



Also of note, the GFS has been performing rather poorly when compared to models such as the Euro, ECMWF, and suprisingly the HWRF.


Whilst that's true, other models are in agreement with the GFS (CMC/CFS/ECMWF which is the Euro model) that there will be stronger waves coming off of Africa and it's the model agreement that's really interesting. Definitely something to watch out for over the coming weeks.
On the positive side this should offer some nice big waves for the surfers.
Quoting 300. JNFlori30A:

Actually that looks a little too windy for the ATL right now.... :/
Those are the trade winds racing ;)

Webcam from Honomu, HI. They've gotten 1.28 inches of rain already.
324. 1344
Quoting 323. Huracan94:


Webcam from Honomu, HI. They've gotten 1.28 inches of rain already.

Link?
325. 1344
Quoting 312. yankees440:

I'm very curious as to Hawaii's Hurricane history prior to 1950.


It got hit once in 1871 I think.
A little spot of -80 degrees Celsius now on the Infared satellite in Iselle...
Dropsonde

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
1003mb (Surface) 110° (from the ESE) 75 knots (86 mph)
991mb 115° (from the ESE) 84 knots (97 mph)
971mb 110° (from the ESE) 79 knots (91 mph)
964mb 120° (from the ESE) 87 knots (100 mph)
955mb 120° (from the ESE) 80 knots (92 mph)
946mb 120° (from the ESE) 80 knots (92 mph)
936mb 120° (from the ESE) 73 knots (84 mph)
903mb 125° (from the SE) 65 knots (75 mph)
850mb 135° (from the SE) 69 knots (79 mph)
697mb 140° (from the SE) 68 knots (78 mph
328. 1344
Quoting 313. MAweatherboy1:


Doubtful it lasts as a hurricane. The eye has completely collapsed, all that's left is that tiny pocket of hurricane force winds NE of the center. Hopefully some of those colder tops die down before moving ashore though, those would definitely pose a heavy rain threat.



It might not, but based on Recon, it appears to be intensifying. Storms tend to re-fire convection before they near Hawaii (or at least the weak ones do).
Quoting 327. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Dropsonde

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
1003mb (Surface) 110° (from the ESE) 75 knots (86 mph)
991mb 115° (from the ESE) 84 knots (97 mph)
971mb 110° (from the ESE) 79 knots (91 mph)
964mb 120° (from the ESE) 87 knots (100 mph)
955mb 120° (from the ESE) 80 knots (92 mph)
946mb 120° (from the ESE) 80 knots (92 mph)
936mb 120° (from the ESE) 73 knots (84 mph)
903mb 125° (from the SE) 65 knots (75 mph)
850mb 135° (from the SE) 69 knots (79 mph)
697mb 140° (from the SE) 68 knots (78 mph


1003mb with surface wind of 86MPH. How accurate is that?
Quoting 329. yankees440:



1003mb with surface wind of 86MPH. How accurate is that?

1003mb is the altitude, not the pressure.
Quoting 324. 1344:


Link?

http://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-stat ion/dashboard?ID=KHIHONOM3#history
Quoting abcdeer:
composite will pick up what base cannot.


Composite will show all the scans, but it is not enough to compensate for the blockage. A tilt of 1.5° may overshoot precipitation at 26000ft and or underestimate rainfall.
333. Siker
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

1003mb is the altitude, not the pressure.


But... It says Surface... Thought it was 1003mb at the surface where they measured the wind?
Quoting 298. racer925:



Julio looks like the next Major Hurricane in Eastern Pacific, IMO
Not much of a fan of the Epac but I need to say it this season has been amazing so far. Julio is going to be the first male name of the season to achieve MH by the way it looks. He looks impressive.
Quoting 330. TropicalAnalystwx13:


1003mb is the altitude, not the pressure.


With all that data, what is the actual wind speed at the surface?
Quoting 304. yankees440:



Agreed on the dry air. The SST's on the other hand are actually warming as Iselle approaches Hawaii.

the dry air is abating too but I meant her structure was falling apart I didn't think she'd last as a hurricane but apparently conditions are ripe and recon is finding a stronger hurricane
Hurricane ISELLE Intermediate Advisory Number 31A
Issued at 200 PM HST THU AUG 07 2014
SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
Location: 18.9N 152.9W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
Maximum sustained winds: 80 MPH...130 KM/H
Present movement: WNW or 285 degrees AT 17 MPH...26 KM/H
Minimum central pressure: 991 MB...29.27 INCHES
Quoting Siker:


But... It says Surface... Thought it was 1003mb at the surface where they measured the wind?


Each mb corresponds to a level in the atmosphere. 200mb is the upper level, 500mb is the mid level and 1000mb is surface/lower level.

Note, the tropopause is lower in the polar regions than the tropics.
Quoting 333. Siker:



But... It says Surface... Thought it was 1003mb at the surface where they measured the wind?


It was. Why is that surprising? Pressure rises rapidly as you move away from the eye into the area of strongest winds.
340. Siker
Quoting FlyingScotsman:


It was. Why is that surprising? Pressure rises rapidly as you move away from the eye into the area of strongest winds.


I'm aware of that, I was confused by his response because he seemed to be saying that the wind wasn't at the surface.
Quoting 332. nigel20:



Composite will show all the scans, but it is not enough to compensate for the blockage. A tilt of 1.5° may overshoot precipitation at 26000ft and or underestimate rainfall.


Rainfall reports suggest the radar is overshooting the heavy rainfall. Hilo has recorded near 0.75 so far, with some heavy rain reported. The radar thinks Hilo hasn't even had 0.10. Its clearly missing.

Tropical environment rainfall gets heavier as it descends, and is heaviest in the lowest levels. Tropical convection also lacks significantly in ice growth, and often the water droplets are small but very dense in volume of water in the reflectivity area. This gives the tendency give weaker returns than the real rainfall rate.

The NWS uses dual polarization to help deal with this problem, and also uses the tropical Z/R relationship calculation to account for heavier rainfall rates than traditional radar suggests. Of course, the radar isn't showing us dual pol estimates, or the Z/R relationship, I've had some practice with both and I've seen the difference.

It is also in fact possible that the lowest reflectivity is overshooting the tendency for the heavy reflectivity to be shallow due to elevation. This will make rainfall appear artificially even weaker than usual with tropical rainfall. This may explain the issues we are seeing.
Still not annular, but definitely looking better.

343. emguy
Quoting 310. sar2401:
It looks like dry air that was sucked into the storm a little earlier for the east side is opening up a channel to the south. There also appears to be quite a bit of shear operating on the south side as shown by the high clouds blowing off to the south. That ball of convection is really the significant part of the storm, and that doesn't look like a hurricane to me.


It looks like the ridge to the west may have weakened a bit. I see you're outflow to the south (and even flowing out to the South South West), but I also see the outflow on the north portion of the hurricane moving from west to east, so while there may be some moderate shear, it's actually not bad shear. The more intense thunderstorms are receiving good evacuation. She's probably in just a "good enough" environment to make it as a hurricane to the coast. I guess we will know more in a few hours.
344. 1344
Quoting 335. yankees440:



With all that data, what is the actual wind speed at the surface?


~75 knts.
She's getting closer... obviously ha

Following this PWS in Pahoa, HI now. It will be interesting to see the conditions there as Iselle approaches.

Pahoa, HI
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
It blows my mind thinking the origins of this thing can be traced all the way back to TD2 in the Atlantic. Now Genevieve's a Super Typhoon.

Extremely impressive sonde...

Aloha Hawaii, my name is Iselle

Just the fringes coming in.......hope there is not too much runoff/flooding.

351. 1344
Quoting 348. CybrTeddy:

It blows my mind thinking the origins of this thing can be traced all the way back to TD2 in the Atlantic. Now Genevieve's a Super Typhoon.




It can't. Iselle can though.