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Tropical Storm Bertha Nearing Lesser Antilles Islands

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:28 PM GMT on August 01, 2014

Tropical Storm Warnings are flying Friday morning in most of the Lesser Antilles Islands as Tropical Storm Bertha, with top winds of 45 mph, cruises west-northwest at 20 mph towards the islands. Bertha was born last night at 03 UTC August 1, when tropical disturbance 93L was finally able to produce enough heavy thunderstorms to be classified as a tropical storm. The formation of Bertha on August 1 was right on schedule, according to climatology from 1966 - 2009: the Atlantic's 2nd named storm has historically formed on August 1 during this period. Visible satellite loops on Friday morning showed that Bertha was not well-organized; the surface circulation was partially exposed to view, with a modest area of heavy thunderstorms confined to the east side of the circulation. The storm was fighting moderate to high wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, due to strong upper-level winds out of the west. These winds were driving dry air to the west of Bertha into the circulation, keeping heavy thunderstorms from forming on the west side. An Air Force C-130 hurricane hunter aircraft was investigating Bertha Friday morning, and found the storm's central pressure was a rather high 1010 mb at 11:48 UTC (7:48 am EDT). Top surface winds measured by the plane were about 45 mph, so Bertha is showing no signs of intensifying. Barbados radar on Friday morning showed that Bertha was generating some respectable rain bands, which will bring heavy rains to the Lesser Antilles beginning late Friday morning. Water vapor satellite loops and the Saharan Air Layer analysis showed that a large amount of dry air lay to the north and west of Bertha. Ocean temperatures were about 28°C, which is 2°C warmer than the typical 26°C threshold for development.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Bertha.


Figure 2. Short-term drought conditions in the Caribbean as of July 2014, as measured by the one-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Bertha's rains will cause welcome drought relief in some areas, though may also cause flash flooding. Image credit: NOAA's Global Drought Portal.

Forecast for Bertha
Moderate to high wind shear of 15 - 20 knots is expected to affect Bertha through Saturday morning, according to the 12 UTC Friday forecast from the SHIPS model. With the atmosphere around Bertha quite dry, the storm will have to work hard to insulate itself from disruptive dry air incursions, and only slow intensification is likely through Saturday morning. I don't see Bertha being stronger than a 55 mph tropical storm during this period. By Saturday afternoon, wind shear is forecast to fall to the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, and this may allow Bertha to intensify as it moves over Puerto Rico. Passage over the high mountains of Puerto Rico may disrupt the storm some, counteracting the decrease in wind shear. If the system takes a more southwesterly track over the eastern Dominican Republic like the European model is suggesting, this would also disrupt Bertha. I don't see Bertha being stronger than a 60 mph tropical storm as it affects Puerto RIco and the Dominican Republic. Two of our best intensity models, the GFDL and HWRF, predicted in their 06Z Friday runs that Bertha would have winds of about 40 mph as it passed over Puerto Rico on Saturday.

The GFS and European models continue to agree on the long-range fate of Bertha. The storm is expected to clip the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Sunday, then turn north in response to a strong trough of low pressure over the Eastern United States. This trough should be strong enough to recurve Bertha to the northeast without the storm hitting the mainland U.S. coast.

I'll have a new post this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Nice drought map. Thanks.
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.
Forecast for this storm could not be any more beneficial, could it! It is always nice to see a tropical storm be a boon rather than a threat. We can all enjoy the show without worrying about the ensuing disaster and those unfortunate enough to be in the path.
After the islands its fishy fishy for Bertha! Thats good, we dont need a storm here in the states :)
Maybe if its more west nc wil get the storm she's always wanted :).Thanks Doc.
Thanks Dr. Masters.
The drought continues to worsen here, hopefully Bertha can put a dent in it.
Thanks Dr. M! An interesting future awaits Bertha, the only thing for sure.
Lets hope "they" don't intensify it too much and keep it on course for those who need rain the most.
Thanks doctor! ;)
Quoting 6. WeatherNerdPR:
Thanks Dr. Masters.
The drought continues to worsen here, hopefully Bertha can put a dent in it.


Good to see you guys getting some relief, now if only we can have a good wet season out here...
Thanks Doc. This should help the drought..

Here we go, again!!!!! Can't get out of this troughing pattern to save our life. Real Caribbean trackers are a thing of the past...
Recon data seems to support an upgrade to 50mph in the next advisory.
Is bertha moving west looks like it on radar and storm is coming together nice
Quoting 11. JrWeathermanFL:

Thanks Doc. This should help the drought..



Ada Monzon reported this morning she's expecting between 4-6 inches of rain for tomorrow. Really hope she's right.
16. SLU
53.6 knots (~ 61.7 mph)
Tropical Storm
The blob north of the Dominican looks almost stationary after moving south for a few days....
Quoting 14. tkdaime:

Is bertha moving west looks like it on radar and storm is coming together nice

Sadly it won't matter it's just going to be sucked up into the vacuum cleaner into oblivion. Nothing escapes the trough!!!
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imagine if someone had stock in this co 2 years ago :)
Quoting 15. nocanesplease:


Ada Monzon reported this morning she's expecting between 4-6 inches of rain for tomorrow. Really hope she's right.

I feel for them. I get whiny when we go just a week without rain.
I suspect Bertha will slow her foreword speed tremendously after entering the Caribbean.
Not if trough weakens some tracks take it near south fl things can change
thanx doc......well...it was close....but we end the june/july months with one named storm........average is 1.7.....and during a forming el nino year....the average is 0.8.......average number of storms, regardless of strength of el nino is 8.......so first.....will we actually see an el nino....i think we will.....and then....will the atlantic through the meat of the season which is right around the corner.....still remain relatively quiet
FINALLY....A return to regular storms. I'm sick sick sick and tired of this nasty unseasonable cooler dry weather ridiculousness we've been having.
Someone said bertha cant escape the trough but she has escaped everything else right
Quoting 22. tkdaime:

Not if trough weakens some tracks take it near south fl things can change

Yeah, I really hope the track changes to make this situation more interesting.
I would even, at the risk of being crazy say "there is a chance she makes a nice clean run all the way through the Caribbean"
The Ukmet is making the wave behind 93L look promising..

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 25.3N 75.4W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 04.08.2014 25.3N 75.4W MODERATE

00UTC 05.08.2014 29.0N 75.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 05.08.2014 33.1N 74.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 06.08.2014 36.3N 71.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 06.08.2014 37.5N 68.1W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

00UTC 07.08.2014 37.9N 64.2W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:Recon data seems to support an upgrade to 50mph in the next advisory.

Agree with you WeatherNerd. The HH just measured surface winds of near 56 mph at 9:40 a.m. about 120 miles northeast of Barbados. This may be isolated in one of the strongest rain bands, but then again, the plane has not sampled some of the strongest winds in spiral bands to the northwest. I think, Bertha may be a candidate for 60 mph later today. We will see. Have a blessed day.
i find this so interesting as the talk turns to an el nino being declared in the winter....over a year ago....4 german scientists issued a paper claiming they could forecast ENSO events over a year in the future....they were scoffed...here...but also by some respected scientists......now...as we see things delayed...could they be right....and could their research also be right

El Nino could happen in upcoming winter, affect next farming season

By Chris Cole
POSTED: 10:32 PM MDT Jul 31, 2014


El Nino could affect next farming season

POCATELLO, Idaho -
The National Weather Service is looking ahead to winter, and early signs indicate we may have an El Nino. An El Nino is something that could affect the snowpack this upcoming winter, according to Vernon Preston with the NWS.

"An El Nino forms when warm water surfaces off the coast of South America around Christmas time,” said Preston, the warning coordination meteorologist. “El Nino is basically an ocean current that affects our weather patterns globally."

El Nino affects water temperatures closer to the surface of the ocean. It's when warm water is closer to the surface and cuts off access to cooler water where fish feed, in turn causing problems for the fishing industry. But for Idaho?

"Here in Eastern Idaho, typically in an El Nino pattern, we end up being a little bit warmer than normal during the wintertime and then our precipitation chances vary,” Preston said. “Over the last 17 El Ninos, our snowpack has actually been below normal for 12 of them."
Dont think bertha will become strong too fast and that area east of bahamas needs to be watched waters are very warm low shear too
Quoting 27. forecaster1:
I would even, at the risk of being crazy say "there is a chance she makes a nice clean run all the way through the Caribbean"
Anything is possible IMO.
Bertha could still threaten Bermuda

a rio grande hugger would be great for alot of the nation
Quoting 21. forecaster1:

I suspect Bertha will slow her foreword speed tremendously after entering the Caribbean.

Great.....let's draw this out as much as we can. I always love watching a struggling tropical storm move less than 10mph.
Nice heavy rain falling straight down.
You guys can keep the wind…….
after spending most of the week in negative values....finally the enso 3.4 region is in the positive range.....this means...that all the enso regions are once again in the positive......

Now if that path could shift 850 miles to the west I'd be a happy guy.
excuse me while I contact a man about a boat..

00z CMC






Current forecast is a bull's eye for Rincon at sunset. If so my solar panel mounts will get their first test...






Thanks Dr. Masters. An update on Bertha followed by an additional post by the afternoon? I feel like I won the lotto.
And by the way, HAPPY AUGUST EVERYONE !!!
Quoting 38. ricderr:

after spending most of the week in negative values....finally the enso 3.4 region is in the positive range.....this means...that all the enso regions are once again in the positive......


It just better deliver me a good winter.
We get a storm the first day of July.
The next one we get on the first day of August.
Might as well name Cristobal on September 1st :P


Why, theres the wall of shear...
Quoting 47. JrWeathermanFL:

We get a storm the first day of July.
The next one we get on the first day of August.
Might as well name Cristobal on September 1st :P

Coincidence? ............Yes.
It looks like Bertha's center is again becoming exposed.
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
We get a storm the first day of July.
The next one we get on the first day of August.
Might as well name Cristobal on September 1st :P
One each month is all "They" will let us have. BerthaJose is their contribution for August. :-0
the secon half of ENSO "southern oscillation" is also still in the negatives.....today's 30 day average is at -1.93...it's been trending up...however...one would hope and expect...if the enso values stay in the positive....the SO values will drop
Quoting 47. JrWeathermanFL:

We get a storm the first day of July.
The next one we get on the first day of August.
Might as well name Cristobal on September 1st :P
If we keep going like this we'll have 5 storms for the season and a suspect T.D in the BOC.lol.
Halong...
It just better deliver me a good winter.


well...i'll be out wetting my feet in the pacific on a couple occasions this month and next....i'll explain to the pacific your expectations... :-)
Quoting 53. washingtonian115:

If we keep going like this we'll have 5 storms for the season and a suspect T.D in the BOC.lol.


5/1/0 with 2 TDs doesn't soud too far fetched.
I don't know if I can handle 4 of...these..


Umm, where is Bertha (going) - or recon?
As Dr. Masters stated, the hurricane season is right on schedule with the 2nd named storm on Aug. 1st.
Not sure why people think this season is going to be real slow when we have already had 2 named systems and it's only Aug. 1st.

The real action usually doesn't start until Aug.
If the troughs keep carrying on like they're carrying on and all we can get for homegrown development are weak, pathetic, trash junk pile storms like Karen, I say we can kiss hurricane threats for GOMEX and Florida goodbye!!!
Quoting 57. barbamz:


Umm, where is Bertha (going)?


I think there's just nothing there wind wise. As noted by here.

Quoting barbamz:

Umm, where is Bertha (going)?


Looks to be headed right for Puerto Rico.
The NHC has been right on with this system
Really a great scenario, Much needed rain for the islands then a nice curve out to sea.
Couldn't plan this one any better if we tried.
I'm just wondering. Last night they declared Bertha at 11:00 PM EST, July 31, but I believe Bertha was already in another time zone. So, would she had been declared August 1 or July 31st?
Quoting 57. barbamz:


Umm, where is Bertha (going)?


Was wondering if center re-located to the SW, or multiple centers that Recon missed one?
Looks like large change from 1st to 2nd center fix.
Quoting barbamz:

Umm, where is Bertha (going)?

There is no way that's where the center is, it doesn't match satellite imagery...
I'm sorry but I'm unhinged..

5 years........5 years of this troughing ridiculousness, unbelievable......simply unbelievable.
Good thing winter is only 4 months away.
Sure looks like the LLC got ejected to the WSW to SW of the last position.
Quoting 63. Grothar:

I'm just wondering. Last night they declared Bertha at 11:00 PM EST, July 31, but I believe Bertha was already in another time zone. So, would she had been declared August 1 or July 31st?


By Best Track Aug 1

AL 03 2014073118 BEST 0 115N 531W 40 1008 LO
AL 03 2014080100 BEST 0 121N 547W 40 1008 TS
Quoting 58. Sfloridacat5:


As Dr. Masters stated, the hurricane season is right on schedule with the 2nd named storm on Aug. 1st.
Not sure why people think this season is going to be real slow when we have already had 2 named systems and it's only Aug. 1st.

The real action usually doesn't start until Aug.
2009 had 3 storms in August :).And we all know how that season ended..(Although Ida, Bill and Fred did make up for the other storms).
Quoting 61. Sfloridacat5:



Looks to be headed right for Puerto Rico.


Yeah, but I was confused by recon's track. Usually you would expect him to target a second center fix. Didn't happen though.
Just a reminder. Things are just getting started. June and July are expected to be very slow.
As of now, I don't see many models taking Bertha directly over Puerto Rico or Hispaniola.

74. SLU
60 - 65mph winds but no closed circulation....

Quoting 70. washingtonian115:

2009 had 3 storms in August :).And we all know how that season ended..(Although Ida, Bill and Fred did make up for the other storms).
Accuweather said that mid-August should have a warm pattern, although I should note that during the summer of 2009 we had cool July, followed by a warm August, we all certainly know what happened next.
I'll be amazed if Bertha literally became an open wave that quick.
Quoting opal92nwf:
Now if that path could shift 850 miles to the west I'd be a happy guy.
It appears you are doomed to unhappiness yet again...It does look like we have a least a chance of showers over the weekend, so all is not lost.
Big trough



Quoting SLU:
60 - 65mph winds but no closed circulation....

there is a closed circulation look.
Thanks Dr.; right to the point. The only comment I would make is that if the Islands disrupt the circulation enough for the storm to fall back down to TD or an open wave, then the current post-Island track will no longer apply. However, I have always marveled at how often many of these storms often"feel" their way through passages and cuts between the Islands and thread the needle with little disruption to the coc; if this happens, the storm wiil in all likelihood follow the current guidance and not be a threat to the US downstream.
Quoting 59. opal92nwf:

If the troughs keep carrying on like they're carrying on and all we can get for homegrown development are weak, pathetic, trash junk pile storms like Karen, I say we can kiss hurricane threats for GOMEX and Florida goodbye!!!

Arthur was homegrown.
Quoting 81. sporteguy03:


Arthur was homegrown.

Quite the homegrown storm, and in JULY.

Quoting SLU:
60 - 65mph winds but no closed circulation....


That's not where the center is. They would be north of Barbados if they were going for a center fix.
Hi all. Writing from W PR and having no luck posting graphics from Flickr. Since I might have some interesting photos manana, could anyone school me on the procedure? Here is the URL:

https://www.flickr.com/photos/schmidt_we/14799533 074/
86. SLU
Quoting 79. HurricaneAndre:

there is a closed circulation look.


That's more of a north/south wind shift. No west winds in aircraft data, surface observations near the estimated center nor via radar data.
Bertha not looking too good right now
Should keep a close eye at the end of the trof and if Bertha becomes an open wave for some of that homegrown development. Warm SSts, moister environment and low shear SW Atlantic.
SAL definitely looking less prevelant in the Atlantic.

Quoting 74. SLU:
60 - 65mph winds but no closed circulation....



That doesn't seem right. It lost its circulation that completely between passes?
Quoting EpsilonWeather:

Quite the homegrown storm, and in JULY.

And that's not even how it looked like at peak intensity. It was a really good-looking storm for July. And it was surprisingly non-destructive considering its strength.
Quoting Grothar:
As of now, I don't see many models taking Bertha directly over Puerto Rico or Hispaniola.



On Tropical Atlantic's website. I counted 18 model runs (actually counted 20 when I zoomed in) that have Bertha's center going over at least some of Puerto Rico.
Quoting TimSoCal:


That doesn't seem right. It lost its circulation that completely between passes?

Not sure why, but they are not near the centre of the storm.
The systems we've been most disappointed in in the last 4 years.























I understand these happen like every year, but I mean LOOK AT THESE....
just how set in stone is that northern turn?
NCEP Caribbean Desk finally updated this morning with some specifics on expected rain totals; Your drought busting prayers in PR and nearby parts have been answered by Bertha:

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
846 AM EDT FRI AUG 01 2014

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. SYSTEM OF
CONCERN IS TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO THE
SOUTH OR IMPACT DIRECTLY THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF PUERTO RICO AS
INDICATED BY THE NHC. FOLLOWING CURRENT TRACK AND INTENSITY
FORECAST...EXPECTING LARGEST RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO CLUSTER
ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO...ALONG
THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE CORDILLERA AND INTO COASTAL AREAS.

MODELS ARE CONSERVATIVE WITH THE AMOUNTS AS THEY DO NOT CAPTURE
WITH THE PROPER DETAIL THE EFFECTS THAT OROGRAPHY HAS IN THESE
PARTICULAR SITUATIONS. FROM THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...THE ONLY
ONE DOING A DECENT JOB IS THE WRF NMM. FOLLOWING NHC GUIDANCE AND
COORDINATING WITH WPC...WE EXPECT AN AREA OF 6-10 INCHES EXTENDING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO FROM AREAS WEST OF PONCE
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST. THIS REGIONS WILL EXTEND AS FAR NORTH
AS THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE CORDILLERA. ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
EASTERN COASTS...AND ST CROIX...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA...EXPECTING
EVENT ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-6 INCHES. ACROSS THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND THE REST OF PUERTO RICO EXPECTING MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
1-3 INCHES.

IN TERMS OF TIMING...IT APPEARS THAT STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL
APPROACH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT TO START AFFECTING
EASTERN PUERTO RICO DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY.
STRONGEST/MOST PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTING DURING
SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WHEN ACTIVITY WILL
START CONCENTRATING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO. ALTHOUGH
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF DURING THE EARLY
HOURS OF SUNDAY...LINGERING LIGHTER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY EXTEND INTO LATE HOURS OF SUNDAY.
I found the LLC or what's left if it it completely dislocated its self from the convection
Seems to be moving W-WNW now
I'd say 14.1N 59.2W

Quoting 85. UPRM1CIMA:

Hi all. Writing from W PR and having no luck posting graphics from Flickr. Since I might have some interesting photos manana, could anyone school me on the procedure? Here is the URL:

https://www.flickr.com/photos/schmidt_we/14799533 074/


For one it cannot have the secure URL, https
Quoting 87. wunderkidcayman:

Bertha not looking too good right now


LOL, when did Bertha ever look good?
Quoting 92. Sfloridacat5:



On Tropical Atlantic's website. I counted 18 model runs that have Bertha's center going over at least some of Puerto Rico.
we in florida need to watch and see if bertha moves under cuba...all bets are off if she does that..
It's okay JrWeathermanFL :).We can always remember storms like Micheal, Igor, Julia, Earl ect..
Quoting 95. LargoFl:
just how set in stone is that northern turn?


It has to be the weakness in the ridge due to the ULL sliding westward/south-westward.
Quoting 93. pottery:


Not sure why, but they are not near the centre of the storm.


Maybe an extra service for Barbados?

About that El Nino....

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I found the LLC or what's left if it it completely dislocated its self from the convection
Seems to be moving W-WNW now
I'd say 14.1N 59.2W


That arc cloud to the north is actually flaring up with convection. Interesting.
And what do you mean by "what's left of it"? The LLC is still there, recon was just checking out the SW quad to see how strong it was. And it's apparently devoid of any significant winds. Now they're turning around for a probable center fix.
Quoting SLU:
60 - 65mph winds but no closed circulation....



? That was a pretty defined windshift recorded.
Quoting 102. rmbjoe1954:



It has to be the weakness in the ridge due to the ULL sliding westward/south-westward.
ok ty
Something is telling me the spin being seeing on SAT is just the MLC, but I guess we'll see once the HH finishes doing its run.
Quoting 95. LargoFl:

just how set in stone is that northern turn?

It is not set in stone. Bertha could fall apart completely. I would watch as I mentioned in post 88 for something in the Bahamas possibly in a few days.
Quoting 78. Grothar:

Big trough






the cold front is supposed to retread inland and then stall on the east coast..courtesy of NWS, Wilmington, NC




000
FXUS62 KILM 011417
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1017 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL FRONT JUST OFFSHORE WILL PUSH INLAND TODAY...THEN
WILL STALL OVER THE AREA FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING GOOD RAIN CHANCES...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL DEVELOP
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE WET AND
COOL...EVEN AS THE PERSISTENT DEEP UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN
ACROSS THE EAST.
ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
FILL...RELATIVELY LOWERED THICKNESSES WILL PERSIST AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE OH VLY AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL HAVE
THE EFFECT OF KEEPING THE TROUGH AS THE DRIVING INFLUENCE
ALOFT...WITH CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION ON S/SW MID-LEVEL WINDS. AT
THE SURFACE...COASTAL TROUGH WHICH MOVES INLAND BEFORE THE
PERIOD


Quoting CybrTeddy:


? That was a pretty defined windshift recorded.
It appears that Bertha has run into a combination of dry air and shear. This storm seems to react almost immediately to any kind of negative influence, as we've seen consistently over the past four days.
Quoting 100. LargoFl:

we in florida need to watch and see if bertha moves under cuba...all bets are off if she does that..

There is no reason to think at this point that Bertha will be a threat to Florida or the US; only two possible fates at this point.  She follows the current NHC guidance, which is sound provided She retains TS status while passing over the Islands (and getting picked up by the trof), or she dissipates as the result too strong of as brush with Hispanola that disrupts the coc causing an open wave or downgrade to TD.

94. JrWeathermanFL
2:39 PM GMT on August 01, 2014
2
+
The systems we've been most disappointed in in the last 4 years.

Three of those do not even look like storms, just a batch of showers with maybe a thunderstorm mixed in.
If anyone cares, Iselle is at 65mph now.
Desperately trying to insulate itself, the poor thing.

Quoting 106. WeatherNerdPR:


That arc cloud to the north is actually flaring up with convection. Interesting.


The arc cloud marks the northern border of Bertha's tropical wave (yeah, I really like Mimic-TPW to look into things, lol):


Click the map to enlarge.


I really wouldn't be surprised if Bertha became a remnant low even today. The center will probably stay while she moves through the convection, but I just don't see convective activity persisting through this. Starting even now. My guess is that she'd come back near PR after coming back into less shear.
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS BERTHA SLIGHTLY STRONGER BUT
DISORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 58.9W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM NE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
908 AM AST FRI AUG 1 2014

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ABOUT TO INVESTIGATE BERTHA...

.NEW INFORMATION...
NEW POSITION HAS BEEN UPDATED.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS COASTAL WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
ALL OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA...AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR
ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS COASTAL WATERS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 8 AM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.6N...LONGITUDE 57.9W. THIS WAS ABOUT 650 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PONCE PR...OR ABOUT 540 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
SAINT CROIX VI. STORM MOTION WAS WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH.
STORM INTENSITY WAS 45 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST NORTHWESTWARD
AROUND 20 MPH DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS PASSING SOUTH OF PONCE
LATE SATURDAY. RAINS WILL OVERSPREAD THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND REACH EASTERN PUERTO RICO AROUND DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYEY AND
LUQUILLO MOUNTAIN RANGES. GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE CAN ALSO
BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY IN SQUALLS AND RAIN BANDS. ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST
PUERTO RICO...VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS ONCE
THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WARNING...NOW IS THE TIME TO RUSH TO COMPLETION
PREPARATIONS FOR THE PROTECTION OF LIFE AND PROPERTY. EVACUATE IF
DIRECTED TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...OR IF YOUR HOME IS
VULNERABLE TO HIGH WINDS OR FLOODING.

FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...URGENTLY COMPLETE
PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS
PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...MAKE FINAL
PREPARATIONS FOR SECURING YOUR CRAFT BEFORE LEAVING IT. BE SURE
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE CLOSURE OF BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS.

REGARDING ANY COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WARNING...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED.

FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR
LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. *

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN SAN JUAN AROUND 1230 PM AST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
Quoting 113. weathermanwannabe:


There is no reason to think at this point that Bertha will be a threat to Florida or the US; only two possible fates at this point.  She follows the current NHC guidance, which is sound provided She retains TS status while passing over the Islands (and getting picked up by the trof), or she dissipates as the result too strong of as brush with Hispanola that disrupts the coc causing an open wave or downgrade to TD.


Third fate: a loop. That hard right Gro just posted suggests that a loop is possible.
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS BERTHA SLIGHTLY STRONGER BUT DISORGANIZED...
11:00 AM AST Fri Aug 1
Location: 14.0°N 58.9°W
Moving: WNW at 21 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph
124. SLU
11:00 AM AST Fri Aug 1
Location: 14.0°N 58.9°W
Moving: WNW at 21 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

Only 50?

As if the aircraft recorded surface winds of over 60mph...
Quoting 122. redwagon:



Third fate: a loop. That hard right Gro just posted suggests that a loop is possible.

Hopefully not a Jeanne rehash...

The islands are going to have a windy day. I am not sure about rain though. Bertha looks to be in a drought itself with most convection gone.
Quoting 95. LargoFl:

just how set in stone is that northern turn?



The NHC is pretty sure it will, and they have been really good with this system. They are the experts
An alternative scenario is that a
combination of shear, dry air entrainment, and land interaction
causes Bertha to degenerate to a tropical wave during the next 48
hours, followed by possible regeneration in the 72-120 hours when
the system reaches the more favorable environment.
She might be gone for a while.
Quoting SLU:
11:00 AM AST Fri Aug 1
Location: 14.0°N 58.9°W
Moving: WNW at 21 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

Only 50?

As if the aircraft recorded surface winds of over 60mph...

But they are only now heading toward the centre of the circulation, right?
Good morning

Bertha appears to be in trouble this morning. A massive outflow boundary is evident in visible imagery signaling dry air entrainment once again into the thunderstorms that had built up overnight and the circulation is at risk of decoupling due to shear. I am waiting to see if the storm still has a closed circulation but it does not look that way from loop imagery.
That shear ahead is going to rip her apart. Wouldn't be surprised to see a completely naked swirl again soon.
Quoting SLU:
11:00 AM AST Fri Aug 1
Location: 14.0°N 58.9°W
Moving: WNW at 21 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

Only 50?

As if the aircraft recorded surface winds of over 60mph...
Are you sure those higher readings weren't rain contaminated?
Quoting 98. nrtiwlnvragn:



For one it cannot have the secure URL, https


Thanks nrtiwlnvragn. Tried removing that to no avail. Any other suggestions?
135. SLU
Quoting 129. pottery:


But they are only now heading toward the centre of the circulation, right?


The center seems to be further west than the advisory position.
Q: Epsilon re: Jeanne re-hash

The ensembles seem to pick out loops quickly.. we'll see what they say. After all, that hard right straight into the A-B seems like an unwise career decision, no?
Looks like we will have a clear afternoon here, as the convection from earlier gets pulled north toward the low.

Oh well, it was nice while it lasted…..
Quoting 133. sar2401:

Are you sure those higher readings weren't rain contaminated?

there would need to be rain for that
This image shows how much the circulation has degraded this morning.

Latest vis image.  Bertha is really struggling with the shear and trying to keep from getting decoupled from what I can tell:
Quoting 134. UPRM1CIMA:



Thanks nrtiwlnvragn. Tried removing that to no avail. Any other suggestions?


You could try loading any images from you PC to your wunderground page, similar to how you loaded your user photo.
Quoting 130. kmanislander:

Good morning

Bertha appears to be in trouble this morning. A massive outflow boundary is evident in visible imagery signaling dry air entrainment once again into the thunderstorms that had built up overnight and the circulation is at risk of decoupling due to shear. I am waiting to see if the storm still has a closed circulation but it does not look that way from loop imagery.

That closed circulation?

Quoting kmanislander:
This image shows how much the circulation has degraded this morning.


Dismal.

No hope for that in the near future.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:

There is no reason to think at this point that Bertha will be a threat to Florida or the US; only two possible fates at this point.  She follows the current NHC guidance, which is sound provided She retains TS status while passing over the Islands (and getting picked up by the trof), or she dissipates as the result too strong of as brush with Hispanola that disrupts the coc causing an open wave or downgrade to TD.
Another possibility, which looks likely to me, is that Bertha degenerates into a TD or open wave as it rushes ahead to Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. It will remain too weak to "feel" the ridge but not dissipate completely. Once it gets into better conditions north of the Islands, it then begins to regenerate and follows the steering currents over the Bahamas. It will be an interesting - and frustrating - couple of days ahead with Bertha, which is nothing new with this storm.
What's the latest from the Recon.
Quoting 95. LargoFl:

just how set in stone is that northern turn?


Especially when there is the possibility of the trough retrograding further than currently forecast. Lots can change in 5-7 days from now. I'm uneasy about its "certainty."
Quoting EpsilonWeather:

That closed circulation?

How can you tell if you're looking at a closed circulation from a visible satellite photo?
Quoting 142. EpsilonWeather:


That closed circulation?




Satellite imagery is very unreliable to determine if a system is closed or not, that is why I said it didn't look so but was waiting to see if it was closed or not ( depending on what the HH found ).
Quoting 145. pottery:

What's the latest from the Recon.



Hardly any westwinds left in the remnants of the COC, Pott.
Quoting all4hurricanes:

there would need to be rain for that
LOL. I imagine there are at least some heavy showers...
Quoting 145. pottery:

What's the latest from the Recon.


Looks like they are flying back to an area where they found some very, very weak SW winds to sample again, close to where visible shows a possible center.
Quoting barbamz:



Hardly any westwinds left in the remnants of the COC, Pott.
Thanks, Barb. Looks like the circulation has opened up and the strongest winds are offset considerably to the north from what was the center. Not the signs of a healthy storm.
It amazes me how bad some on here are wishing for a westward bias when the NHC and Models aren't calling for that at all and never has.
I am assuming these are kids just playing on here being funny.
Listen to the NHC, They will make changes and inform if they see necessary.
Quoting 146. HaoleboySurfEC:



Especially when there is the possibility of the trough retrograding further than currently forecast. Lots can change in 5-7 days from now. I'm uneasy about its "certainty."
yes same here,this needs to be watched carefully..its been fooling everyone
Bertha certainly has very vigorous winds close to the surface, so any sudden increase in organization could cause Bertha to briefly push 55-60 knots. I don't expect that to happen today, as noted by the outflow boundaries being shot off to the west of the circulation, but we could see it as it emerges to the north of the Caribbean.
Quoting 151. nrtiwlnvragn:



Looks like they are flying back to an area where they found some very, very weak SW winds to sample again, close to where visible shows a possible center.


My live recon is temporarily down as we just switched to a new IT configuration in the office ( Thin Client ) and the graphics card can't handle it :-(.

I will have them upgrade that right away !
Quoting barbamz:



Hardly any westwinds left in the remnants of the COC, Pott.


Thanks !
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Looks like they are flying back to an area where they found some very, very weak SW winds to sample again, close to where visible shows a possible center.


Not sure they will find anything of great interest.


This storm has surely been one of the fastest ''changers'' I've seen.
Up and down like a yo-yo…..
159. DDR
That short term drought shouldn't even be posted,look at PR and in Trinidad we don't have any drought,a few localized areas are short in terms of rainfall though.
Quoting 117. EpsilonWeather:

Desperately trying to insulate itself, the poor thing.




Well, it looks a lot better than last night. It really got rid of that huge dry air patch that was to its north west. There's still some dry air, but no where near the extent of last night. It's got shear to deal with now though. At least the islands will definitely get some rain and it won't fizzle out on them! :)
Quoting 111. ncstorm:



the cold front is supposed to retread inland and then stall on the east coast..courtesy of NWS, Wilmington, NC




000
FXUS62 KILM 011417
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1017 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL FRONT JUST OFFSHORE WILL PUSH INLAND TODAY...THEN
WILL STALL OVER THE AREA FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING GOOD RAIN CHANCES...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL DEVELOP
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE WET AND
COOL...EVEN AS THE PERSISTENT DEEP UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN
ACROSS THE EAST.
ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
FILL...RELATIVELY LOWERED THICKNESSES WILL PERSIST AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE OH VLY AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL HAVE
THE EFFECT OF KEEPING THE TROUGH AS THE DRIVING INFLUENCE
ALOFT...WITH CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION ON S/SW MID-LEVEL WINDS. AT
THE SURFACE...COASTAL TROUGH WHICH MOVES INLAND BEFORE THE
PERIOD





Geez, ncstorm, you guys keep getting bombed with rain. A line headed toward me now as well.

www.surfchex.com
Wrightsville Beach cam
Lol
3 SSW barbs with
2 S barbs
That's not really a closed circulation

I do have to commend the strong winds to the N
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3...CORRECTED
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL AL032014
1500 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014

CORRECTED WATCH POINTS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO Frances
VIEJO TO ISLA SAONA.

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS DISCONTINUED ALL
WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT...AND THE
GRENADINES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. LUCIA
* DOMINICA
* MARTINIQUE
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO Frances VIEJO TO
ISLA SAONA
Quoting 157. kmanislander:



My live recon is temporarily down as we just switched to a new IT configuration in the office ( Thin Client ) and the graphics card can't handle it :-(.

I will have them upgrade that right away !


Have you tried using Levi's site
Quoting barbamz:



Hardly any westwinds left in the remnants of the COC, Pott.


Post 149.
Looks to me like they recently passed through 'the centre' based on the wind shifts there.
Quoting 164. nrtiwlnvragn:



Have you tried using Levi's site


No, but will give it a try now. Thanks
Bit of a mess.

168. beell

Current CIMSS Shear Product (click for larger image)
Quoting 156. CybrTeddy:

Bertha certainly has very vigorous winds close to the surface, so any sudden increase in organization could cause Bertha to briefly push 55-60 knots. I don't expect that to happen today, as noted by the outflow boundaries being shot off to the west of the circulation, but we could see it as it emerges to the north of the Caribbean.
If it was another year not counting 2013 or this one I am pretty sure this could have been a MH. She has the winds but Wind shear its taking its toll on her.
170. SLU
Quoting 133. sar2401:

Are you sure those higher readings weren't rain contaminated?


My bad. 50 - 55mph seems to be ok intensity-wise but this is just another in a series of extremely disjointed tropical storms to pass through the Lesser Antilles since 2011. Last year was Chantal.


The area of the Southern Bahamas/Turks & Caicos has traditionally been a pretty favorable environment for storms once they clear the lower Islands, and land interaction, and get into warm sst's there; Bertha's best potential for intensification is probably in this region if she survives the crossing intact and then the trof should pick her up and keep her off-shore and into the Atlantic............... She has to get there first however..... :)  
Quoting LargoFl:
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3...CORRECTED
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL AL032014
1500 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014

CORRECTED WATCH POINTS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO Frances
VIEJO TO ISLA SAONA.

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS DISCONTINUED ALL
WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT...AND THE
GRENADINES.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. LUCIA
* DOMINICA
* MARTINIQUE
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO Frances VIEJO TO
ISLA SAONA

Thats good.
Gotta run now. Back later
Looks like she is drawing that plume of moisture from the south north in to the center.. This should sustain her until tonight...
Well.......
Quoting blueyedbiker:
It amazes me how bad some on here are wishing for a westward bias when the NHC and Models aren't calling for that at all and never has.
I am assuming these are kids just playing on here being funny.
Listen to the NHC, They will make changes and inform if they see necessary.
While I generally agree about geographic wishcasters, Bertha is one of those storms that can change rapidly. The models initially called for Bertha to enter the Caribbean north of 20N and they were off by a lot. The path of Bertha is really just beginning, and there are a lot of assumptions built into the models now, and that will change as Bertha changes. The models are notoriously bad with weak, pulsing systems, both for track and intensity. I think the chances of this affecting Florida or the East Coast are very small right now but not zero. This is one of those storms that we will just have to follow from update to update and look at actual path and intensity more than what the models say.
Quoting SLU:


My bad. 50 - 55mph seems to be ok intensity-wise but this is just another in a series of extremely disjointed tropical storms to pass through the Lesser Antilles since 2011. Last year was Chantal.




Since 2007 would be a better example -- with the exception of Tomas.
Looks like Bertha is no bueno at doing the Limbo.

Her top half just hit the wall of shear and spit out the LLC- racing westward (ish)

Well, Bertha will move into an area of higher TCHP



So that might help a little.
Current short-term 24 hour sheer tendency is for lower sheer in the region of the Southern Bahamas but that is obviously variable between now and Monday (72-96 hour time frame):





Quoting pottery:

Thats good.
It certainly would be if I was in Grenada or St. Vincent in my boat, hanging out south to avoid the hurricanes. Unfortunately, I'm sitting on my butt in Alabama instead. Rats! The interesting thing is that, if my plans of retiring on a sailboat in the Caribbean had come true, and assuming I wasn't killed by Ivan in 2004, I could have anchored in the Virgins since 2005 with no ill effects at all. Strange nine years...
Quoting 85. UPRM1CIMA:

Hi all. Writing from W PR and having no luck posting graphics from Flickr. Since I might have some interesting photos manana, could anyone school me on the procedure? Here is the URL:

https://www.flickr.com/photos/schmidt_we/14799533 074/


Repost with graphic attachment (hopefully)...

Yea! Thanks nrtiwlnvragn !
186. Relix
I knew this would happen. Doesn't surprise me at all. I fully believe we at PR will only experience minor rains (less than an inch) and some slight wind. No more. Its breaking apart like every storm the past few years. So sad =/
Quoting UPRM1CIMA:


Repost with graphic attachment (hopefully)...





Maybe more like this? Right click on the image you want and then use "Copy Image URL", making sure the image ends with .jpg.

Uugh what is wrong with these Atlantic systems its like they becoming weaker each season
Center
Time: 15:02:00Z
Coordinates: 14.2333N 59.4167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 965.8 mb (~ 28.52 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 363 meters (~ 1,191 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1006.6 mb (~ 29.72 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 83° at 5 knots (From the E at ~ 5.8 mph)
Air Temp: 23.2°C* (~ 73.8°F*)
Dew Pt: 22.9°C* (~ 73.2°F*)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 27 knots (~ 31.0 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr (~ 0 in/hr)
Quoting Relix:
I knew this would happen. Doesn't surprise me at all. I fully believe we at PR will only experience minor rains (less than an inch) and some slight wind. No more. Its breaking apart like every storm the past few years. So sad =/
I wouldn't get too pessimistic yet. If things still look this bad by Sunday, then you can trash Bertha. :-)
Quoting 188. weatherman994:

Uugh what is wrong with these Atlantic systems its like they becoming weaker each season


The times, they are a changin'.
Quoting 182. LargoFl:




First suggestion of a loop.
canadian got it brushing se fl now then takes off ne
Quoting 191. yonzabam:


The times, they are a changin'.


Like Levi and others have indicated it will take a strong El Nino event to wipe the slate clean and allow for a stronger Atlantic Hhurricane season the follwing year.
195. SLU
Quoting 177. CybrTeddy:



Since 2007 would be a better example -- with the exception of Tomas.


That's correct. Very odd.
I love this place! Yesterday folks talked about an open swirl as being dead today with 100% more moisture heading into warm water and fair conditions "this storm is falling apart" LOL She is drawing moisture from the south and tracking generally to the blob north of the Dominican so she has plenty to work with... My big question is unless the retreating front is going to open up a space for her to go north she will be trapped soon and either do a loop or head more southward and traverse the Caribbean.
197. Relix
Quoting 190. sar2401:

I wouldn't get too pessimistic yet. If things still look this bad by Sunday, then you can trash Bertha. :-)


Its supposed to be here by midday tomorrow and its looking awful. We really, really need the rain. If it keeps up like this in 3 months everything will be bone dry with a heavy crisis in our hands (at least that's the estimate at the current rate and with rationing). I thought Bertha would manage it but as I expected since this morning the wall of shear is way too strong. I've seen these intensity and forecast shifts for years now... Fay, Irene, Felix, etc. Drives me crazy. Those years it was just a fun system to track, but right now we really need the water, and seeing the MDR this will be our only hope for a few weeks.

I am honestly expecting the forecast to either shift south and pass far away from us, leaving some slight rain (and undermining the people's trust in the NWS which is pretty low by now) or a naked swirl following the forecast track but leaving little rain and no wind. Honestly, its frustrating =/
Hey everyone. Bertha looks to have hit a steep speed bump. We'll see if she can get her act back together today. I don't have too much faith in it doing it any time soon though. Lots of pockets of 30kt shear in the near term. I don't know if it'll kill the circulation altogether, but may reduce winds down to TD for while. Although, this from 1100 discussion, "...reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft show that the wind field more resembles that of an open wave." I really think the sweet spot for lil Bertha will be up in the horse latitudes. HWRF shows this as well. We'll see. Seems obvious though, based on the discussion, shear maps, sats and shear forecasts, it has at least 48 hrs before we can expect much of anything. Have a great day!

Quoting 196. forecaster1:

I love this place! Yesterday folks talked about an open swirl as being dead today with 100% more moisture heading into warm water and fair conditions "this storm is falling apart" LOL She is drawing moisture from the south and tracking generally to the blob north of the Dominican so she has plenty to work with... My big question is unless the retreating front is going to open up a space for her to go north she will be trapped soon and either do a loop or head more southward and traverse the Caribbean.


its like windshield wipers..but I love WU anyway..eventually most come to see the light..
Never mind where new vortex message seems reasonable

Man I'm off my game this morning
Quoting Gearsts:
Center
Time: 15:02:00Z
Coordinates: 14.2333N 59.4167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 965.8 mb (~ 28.52 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 363 meters (~ 1,191 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1006.6 mb (~ 29.72 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 83° at 5 knots (From the E at ~ 5.8 mph)
Air Temp: 23.2°C* (~ 73.8°F*)
Dew Pt: 22.9°C* (~ 73.2°F*)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 27 knots (~ 31.0 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr (~ 0 in/hr)

Pressure still falling.

LOLOL.
this site keeps going down but here are the 12z SREF ensembles..NCEP ensembles are running now..



For what it's worth: in the last frame the formerly raged (and exposed) center of circulation looks recovered:


Saved image. Click to get the latest enlarged.
Quoting 199. ncstorm:



its like windshield wipers..but I love WU anyway..eventually most come to see the light..


How's your rain, nc?
One thing I must say about Bertha, she certainly won't go down without a fight.
Quoting 201. pottery:


Pressure still falling.

LOLOL.
1010mb mark wasn't the real center.
Quoting 203. barbamz:
For what it's worth: in the last frame the formerly raged (and exposed) center of circulation looks recovered:


Saved image. Click to get the latest enlarged.


Bertha is a fighter that's for sure. However, my eyes tell me unless that ULL moves I see Bertha taking a westerly track.
Quoting 204. Grothar:



How's your rain, nc?


drizzle now Gro..supposed to pick up again later..no ants but the frogs here are so loud..you have to turn up your radio when driving as you can hear them croaking..cutting the yard involves fighting so many of them as they are hiding in the grass..uggh..
never a dull moment with this tropical storm & invest
It can stop raining now. Jeez.

That tornado warning last night was weird. My wife just put a new weather warning app on her phone. Scared the crap out of me at first.
I hate this storm. It makes no sense to me.
I will be thoroughly impressed if trash storm is able to survive the next 3 days. It's got westerly winds on the order of 30-40 knots to contend with, accelerating trade winds in the Caribbean to contend with, continued dry air to contend with, and on top of that, the low-level circulation is already pretty weak to begin with. A close call with Hispaniola will allow dry air off the mountains to get entrained into the circulation, like we've seen with previous storms in this region.

Quoting 212. Brock31:

It can stop raining now. Jeez.

That tornado warning last night was weird. My wife just put a new weather warning app on her phone. Scared the crap out of me at first.

I turned my phone on silent, so I slept through it. As a weather nut, I feel ashamed. Lol.
Hearing some rumbles to the southwest now, so it may be coming this way (the thunder).
Quoting 214. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I will be thoroughly impressed if trash storm is able to survive the next 3 days. It's got westerly winds on the order of 30-40 knots to contend with, accelerating trade winds in the Caribbean to contend with, continued dry air to contend with, and on top of that, the low-level circulation is already pretty weak to begin with. A close call with Hispaniola will allow dry air off the mountains to get entrained into the circulation, like we've seen with previous storms in this region.



I think it's already impressive how this storm has held on and even intensified, despite being presented with hostile conditions so many times. Not to mention this storm will likely bring beneficial rains to many. So I don't think it's "trash". Ragged yes, but this is not trash. :p
Meanwhile in the WPac, a slightly stronger circulation without a name...

My take is that the LLC will continue on and maybe fire some convection during the next day or 2, but I don't expect this to be Bertha by tonight or early tomorrow. She'll more than likely regenerate however if PR or Hispanola doesn't tear her up.

I don't see how this storm can bear so much wind shear.
Quoting 218. Envoirment:



I think it's already impressive how this storm has held on and even intensified, despite being presented with hostile conditions so many times. Not to mention this storm will likely bring beneficial rains to many. So I don't think it's "trash". Ragged yes, but this is no trash. :p



well its trash if you thought it wouldnt develop..
decoupled ??

The 06z HWRF has shifted more to the east, probably in consideration of a stronger system.



As well as the COAMPS which now moves it North or Puerto Rico

"Bertha to degenerate to a tropical wave during the next 48
hours, followed by possible regeneration in the 72-120 hours when
the system reaches the more favorable environment."

I see the NHC read my comment an hour or so ago :P
Nah, but this is the most likely scenerio.
Does anybody kinda feel bad for Bertha?.Lol.It's like seeing a dog continuing to go back to their abusive owner (in this case the Atlantic).
Latest shear map shows a big drop in shear in the path of/over the system:

Quoting 219. TimSoCal:

Meanwhile in the WPac, a slightly stronger circulation without a name...




They named this Inday like two days ago in that part of the world. Navy & NOAA have continued calling it 96W.
Bertha
Quoting stormpetrol:
GMail is down, causing worldwide panic to set in...:-)
Quoting Envoirment:
Latest shear map shows a big drop in shear in the path of/over the system:

Didn't work. Never mind, now it did.
Day 1


Day 2/3


Quoting 228. Skyepony:

Bertha



Looks like the westerlies are stronger than we thought. I wonder if that is what is removing the convection away from the center, or it is just moving too fast.
Quoting 230. sar2401:

Didn't work.


Fixed it. :)

If shear drops some more and Bertha heads over the higher TCHP/some higher SSTs (should pass 29C SSTs for a short while), I can see it putting on a good show later tonight.
Quoting Envoirment:
Latest shear map shows a big drop in shear in the path of/over the system:

Down 5 knots from 30 knots is not a big drop.
Quoting 225. washingtonian115:

Does anybody kinda feel bad for Bertha?.Lol.It's like seeing a dog continuing to go back to their abusive owner (in this case the Atlantic).

I always feel that people shouldn't blame the systems for what happens to them, It's not that they're not trying, it's just that it's too much for them to handle.



Bertha: "Like you could do any better."

(I can't believe I just wasted time editing that instead of being a productive member of regular society like normal people)
Quoting 221. ncstorm:



well its trash if you thought it wouldnt develop..


It did develop according to NHC
Quoting 214. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I will be thoroughly impressed if trash storm is able to survive the next 3 days. It's got westerly winds on the order of 30-40 knots to contend with, accelerating trade winds in the Caribbean to contend with, continued dry air to contend with, and on top of that, the low-level circulation is already pretty weak to begin with. A close call with Hispaniola will allow dry air off the mountains to get entrained into the circulation, like we've seen with previous storms in this region.


Lol you are still angry it was designated? Come on give it a break at least it formed when the majority thought it was already gone. She might died in the Caribbean which is the most probably solution right now but she might intensify later on.
Quoting 234. sar2401:

Down 5 knots from 30 knots is not a big drop.


That's down 5 knots from 24 hours ago. The shear has dropped some 10-15kts or a little more since the last shear map (3 hours earlier):



Quoting 183. sar2401:

It certainly would be if I was in Grenada or St. Vincent in my boat, hanging out south to avoid the hurricanes. Unfortunately, I'm sitting on my butt in Alabama instead. Rats! The interesting thing is that, if my plans of retiring on a sailboat in the Caribbean had come true, and assuming I wasn't killed by Ivan in 2004, I could have anchored in the Virgins since 2005 with no ill effects at all. Strange nine years...
Sounded like a good plan.. sorry it didn't work out. Some parts of Alabama are fairly not too bad often..
Quoting 218. Envoirment:



I think it's already impressive how this storm has held on and even intensified, despite being presented with hostile conditions so many times. Not to mention this storm will likely bring beneficial rains to many. So I don't think it's "trash". Ragged yes, but this is not trash. :p


You call it ragged, I'll call it trash. :)
Q: Gro:

I would think that now the llc has an entirely different footprint (convection loss, forward speed +) it's back to the drawing board for all the models.
Quoting 227. Skyepony:



They named this Inday like two days ago in that part of the world. Navy & NOAA have continued calling it 96W.
I thought it was Nakri already.
Quoting 240. TropicalAnalystwx13:


You call it ragged, I'll call it trash. :)


Well as the saying goes "One man's trash is another man's treasure".
Quoting 213. RyanSperrey:

I hate this storm. It makes no sense to me.
Don't sweat is Ryan, another couple of seasons under your belt and it shouldn't bother you at all!
Quoting Envoirment:


That's down 5 knots from 24 hours ago. The shear has dropped some 10-15kts or a little more since the last shear map (3 hours earlier):




The wind shear over Bertha right now is about as low as the storm is going to find over the next two to three days. Even with that, Bertha is not doing well. It's the combination of shear and dry air that's causing the problem. The only chance the storm has is to move more northerly and try to follow that subtropical ridge. If it moves west, it's really toast. A stronger storm might have a better chance, but not Bertha.

Quoting 222. kmanislander:

decoupled ??



Yep
Quoting 242. allancalderini:

I thought it was Nakri already.


The JMA designated it Tropical storm Nakri, but the JTWC hasn't. It has a rather elongated ciruclation but a very large windfield of TS force winds:

Quoting 235. EpsilonWeather:


I always feel that people shouldn't blame the systems for what happens to them, It's not that they're not trying, it's just that it's too much for them to handle.



Bertha: "Like you could do any better."

(I can't believe I just wasted time editing that instead of being a productive member of regular society like normal people)

I sincerely hope that edit did not take more than 3 minutes :)
Hearing some rumbles to the southwest now, so it may be coming this way (the thunder).


well pott...may you enjoy the rain and may the wind just whistle through the trees
Quoting 247. Envoirment:



The JMA designated it Tropical storm Nakri, but the JTWC hasn't. It has a rather elongated ciruclation but a very large windfield of TS force winds:


Well I believe the JMA is the official one, so I always go with that one.
Quoting 248. JNFlori30A:

I sincerely hope that edit did not take more than 3 minutes :)

LOL, try 10 seconds. Still, it gave me that feeling of "What am I doing with my life?".
In the short term, I hope that Bertha (in whatever form) delivers some needed rain to parts of the Caribbean this is good news.  We have several Caribbean bloggers on here so please stay safe and keep us informed on conditions and rain fall levels as the storm traverses your parts over the next few days.
Quoting 198. GatorWX:

Hey everyone. Bertha looks to have hit a steep speed bump. We'll see if she can get her act back together today. I don't have too much faith in it doing it any time soon though. Lots of pockets of 30kt shear in the near term. I don't know if it'll kill the circulation altogether, but may reduce winds down to TD for while. Although, this from 1100 discussion, "...reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft show that the wind field more resembles that of an open wave." I really think the sweet spot for lil Bertha will be up in the horse latitudes. HWRF shows this as well. We'll see. Seems obvious though, based on the discussion, shear maps, sats and shear forecasts, it has at least 48 hrs before we can expect much of anything. Have a great day!




Quoting 243. Envoirment:



Well as the saying goes "One man's trash is another man's treasure".

One Krab's trash is another man's treasure.
Quoting 245. sar2401:


The wind shear over Bertha right now is about as low as the storm is going to find over the next two to three days. Even with that, Bertha is not doing well. It's the combination of shear and dry air that's causing the problem. The only chance the storm has is to move more northerly and try to follow that subtropical ridge. If it moves west, it's really toast. A stronger storm might have a better chance, but not Bertha.




Windshear over Bertha was quite high a few hours ago. It's currently dry air and the approach to Dmin that is hurting the system at the moment. If the shear can stay somewhat low-moderate into tonight as we approach Dmax, the lower shear combined with moving over waters with more energy should help it get going again and finally get rid of the dry air. It made a big dent in the dry air last night, so I hope it'll do the same tonight.
257. IDTH
Now Bertha has a bigger challenge the Trade winds, she has survived the dry air and now it seems she is trying to fire more thunderstorms and wrap it around the center. But she must keep the low level center if she is to survive.
I see the new Drak/SJ nomenclature stuff really struck a chord with everyone. Touche, you two.
Martinique radar:
Link
A breeze for Martinique...
00z Navgem ensembles..



Thanks for the Update Dr. Masters,
No where to go to the north! Link
Quoting 258. GatorWX:

I see the new Drak/SJ nomenclature stuff really struck a chord with everyone. Touche, you two.


But one man's bacon is still MY bacon.
Battered
Eerily similar to 2013 storms struggling on a approach to the Caribbean
Regeneration later might not be an issue if she interacts too much with the Greater Antilles
Too fast and too much dry air and shear at the moment
Hanging on to dear life
Always hoping to keep a vigorous lower lever circulation regardless of what happens a few thousand feet above 
Hmm new 12Z sfc map
Show low to the NE of Bertha that is assisting with the weakness in the ridge is dissipating
And a new high is forming just to the W of the low

This may change up the steering patterns a bit

Also to note two tropical waves with lows in E and Central Atlantic and new surface trof ESE of CV Islands
...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 22N63W AND AN APPROACHING
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 64W. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXPECTED
TO MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AN OVERALL UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY.$$
HUFFMAN
12z Navgem..still running..



http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps-web/web/tc?&spg=& sid=03L&ddtg=2014080106&year=2014&month=08&&scl=1& sec=4&var=mdltrk&tau=0
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coa mps-web/web/tc?&spg=&sid=03L&ddtg=2014 080106&year=2014&month=08&&scl=1&a mp;sec=4&var=mdltrk&tau=0
Nice to see the Facebook hysteria hasn't spread here yet. The site goes down 20 minutes and everybody starts freaking out.
Hey guys, I think Halong began an explosive intensification. At least rapid intensification. Look turns the eye is giving. The last time I saw it in tropical cyclone was Super Typhoon Jelawat before reaching category 5 ... Also during Cyclone Ita. SST 30ºC and i'm seeing a outflow

Look:


Ita: Link

Jelawat: Link
all she has to do is shield that west side which it looks like a band is forming, spit out some dry air and she could be a huge storm.... I think the blob north of the Dominican is exactly the cure for the east side to fill in.
Latest images indicates that Bertha may be doing a slight jog NW should return to WNW-W movement shortly
I don't see Bertha making it to the Bahamas

pinhole eye?
Quoting 273. pablosyn:

Hey guys, I think Halong began an explosive intensification. At least rapid intensification. Look turns the eye is giving. The last time I saw it in tropical cyclone was Super Typhoon Jelawat before reaching category 5 ... Also during Cyclone Ita. SST 30ºC and i'm seeing a outflow

Look:


Ita: Link

Jelawat: Link

It's definitely not the tropical storm both the JMA and JTWC assessed in their latest advisories. Looks a solid 90-95kt.
If it survives.... horse latitudes. Tellin' ya! Don't much feel like toturing myself watching this:



lil' Bertha, you done alright. Keep it up till PR/His passage and you have a shot. At this point, I have no expectations at all until after that. Have fun/stay safe. See ya'll
  • http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps_docs/codt a/2014/tc/03L/2014080106/2014080106.000_track_g1.g if
Quoting WarEagle8:
Martinique radar:
Link


Yeah, lots of big storms shown on this one...

Quoting luigi18:
Link

It's not working, Luigi. What are you trying to copy?

Never mind. Looks like you've got it now.
12z CMC..still running








C'est le grand calme en Martinique pour l'instant !!
Looks like the centre is going to pass right over Martinique, with much of the precipitation falling on points north, one hopes...

Trying to stay moist...



Definitely decoupled though...
anyone seen the 12z Nam..development off Florida and moves up the SE east coast..







last frame


NAM..

Quoting 291. ncstorm:

anyone seen the 12z Nam..development off Florida and moves up the SE east coast..







last frame




An area to watch for boring homegrown development, right Arthur? Definitely an area to watch with old front in the vicinity.
Quoting ncstorm:
anyone seen the 12z Nam..development off Florida and moves up the SE east coast..







last frame




I was looking at that a minute ago.
That low forms before Tropical Storm Bertha's moisture (or whatever's left of her) gets to Florida.
Then T.S. Bertha's moisture gets pulled into the low.
Quoting 232. Grothar:



Looks like the westerlies are stronger than we thought. I wonder if that is what is removing the convection away from the center, or it is just moving too fast.
Prolly a combination...

Quoting 276. Articuno:

I don't see Bertha making it to the Bahamas
I like this vision.
Quoting 290. LargoFl:


The CMC, however, is obviously not my friend....
296. vis0
(Tried to create slideshow w/o pan zoom to the moon,  but think only pay version allows that. mispelled oopz)

REQUEST Ticket: A Grothar inspection.

Future Combo blob?

Create a Free Slideshow
(not Blob combo, that is a messy Fuwari where 2 or more identified blobs (only by Grothar) comine into a TW/TD.

These are not blobs but the Question is will they join to become a blob/blobbet.

SinSaraLeee
      
Top nut σъ
Quoting 293. sporteguy03:


An area to watch for boring homegrown development, right Arthur? Definitely an area to watch with old front in the vicinity.


all these potential trashy lows are going to be the end to WU..
Q: Luigi

Only problem with COAMPS is it initialized way before Bertha 'lost at Limbo', getting a severe convection haircut a few hours ago.
Quoting 291. ncstorm:

anyone seen the 12z Nam..development off Florida and moves up the SE east coast..







last frame





The NAM is showing development from an interaction of the stalled front and the tutt low north of Puerto Rico which is slowly moving westward. A hybrid/ frontal low could develop if they were to merge near the Bahamas.

If a hybrid low were to develop our trashy little Bertha would continue to struggle even when she gets into the Atlantic from the Caribbean. She could possibly get absorbed into it.
Quoting 288. BahaHurican:

Looks like the centre is going to pass right over Martinique, with much of the precipitation falling on points north, one hopes...




It looks that way. At least my Monday night forecast of this system entering the Caribbean at 15 N is about to come to pass LOL
Flying in punta Cana around 11 am on Saturday how long we will be affected?

Don't know if this was posted already but a new video came out of the Pilger tornado. (It mainly focuses on the one that hit Pilger).

Link
Quoting 300. kmanislander:



It looks that way. At least my Monday night forecast of this system entering the Caribbean at 15 N is about to come to pass LOL
LOL... once it didn't get to at least TD before 40W, it prolly was impossible for it to get further north.... now if it could just keep dragging that precip in the NE quadrant so the Leewards actually get some rain...
NAM at 36 hours
It shows the new Low forming over the Bahamas with T.S. Bertha's leftovers following behind.

The first low (northern low) over the Bahamas is the Low that eventually becomes the dominant low (they both combine)

Quoting 299. HurricaneKing:



The NAM is showing development from an interaction of the stalled front and the tutt low north of Puerto Rico which is slowly moving westward. A hybrid/ frontal low could develop if they were to merge near the Bahamas.

If a hybrid low were to develop our trashy little Bertha would continue to struggle even when she gets into the Atlantic from the Caribbean. She could possibly get absorbed into it.


this is turning into a difficult forecast for the experts now..
Yepper!
Hmm interesting



Recon in another pass
I think they found the LLC
LLC at 14.4N 60.1W

Other interesting thing with Bertha....



That eastern cloud boundary seems to be indicating the extent of potential cloud cover if convection wasn't being dislocated to the east.... like 1/2 big Bertha is what we currently have....
Iselle looks different than most East Pacific tropical cyclones. Reminds me of 2005's Hurricane Ophelia.

Quoting 300. kmanislander:



It looks that way. At least my Monday night forecast of this system entering the Caribbean at 15 N is about to come to pass LOL

Might even be S of 15N
311. SLU
Quoting 287. Bubu77:

C'est le grand calme en Martinique pour l'instant !!


Keep us posted Bubu. I'm not expecting anything from this in St. Lucia since i'm on the dry side.
She will be big if she wraps it up...
Quoting 308. BahaHurican:

Other interesting thing with Bertha....



That eastern cloud boundary seems to be indicating the extent of potential cloud cover if convection wasn't being dislocated to the east.... like 1/2 big Bertha is what we currently have....
That Dominican Blob is looking sexy now. This is getting good! Twin storms rotating into Fl? over the next five days.
Quoting 304. Sfloridacat5:

NAM at 36 hours
It shows the new Low forming over the Bahamas with T.S. Bertha's leftovers following behind.

The first low (northern low) over the Bahamas is the Low that eventually becomes the dominant low (they both combine)


Well, there go the weekend beach plans for this August Monday, [aka Emancipation Day] which is a huge "cookout" and beach holiday here....

NAM setup is, unfortunately, quite believable, and looks like a rainy few days from Sunday on for us.... and potential windy conditions especially over the NE Bahamas.... hopefully that guy with the boat down in Cayman will sit tight for a few before he heads out around western Cuba....
315. SLU
The RECON is done. Next flight by 6pm.
Quoting 315. SLU:

The RECON is done. Next flight by 6pm.
And so am I for now... gotta make some runs.... If possible I'll be back in time for the 5 p.m. update...
317. MahFL
Quoting 307. wunderkidcayman:

Hmm interesting



Recon in another pass
I think they found the LLC
LLC at 14.4N 60.1W



We can see the LLC on sat pics lol.
tropical weather-watching?

New flight NOAA2 from McDill
Currently near 20N 80W


Picking up the pieces... putting it back together?
Quoting 317. MahFL:


We can see the LLC on sat pics lol.

Yeah but what they see is slightly different from what we do
When Bertha meets the ULL just ahead of her on her current track, will that shear her more or help her?
Bertha is on her way to make first landfall!!!
Quoting 316. BahaHurican:
And so am I for now... gotta make some runs.... If possible I'll be back in time for the 5 p.m. update...


Good luck finding your hurricane supplies!
Quoting congaline:
When Bertha meets the ULL just ahead of her on her current track, will that shear her more or help her?
It will create more shear in the track so it won't be good. There will also be interaction between the two lows, and that's also not generally good. Unless the storm can take a more northerly track, there's not a lot of good things on the menu for Bertha.
Q: what did the latest UKMET show for Bertha? Did it back down in intensity?
Quelque grosse rafales et c'est à nouveau le calme plat en Martinique.
Les inondations sont plus à craindre vue les bandes pluvieuses...
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Hmm interesting



Recon in another pass
I think they found the LLC
LLC at 14.4N 60.1W

Dang! Most of those tracks go right over or near the Caymans. Any idea how those analogue storms were selected?

Ryan Maue @RyanMaue · 1h

While #Bertha is sheared apart & disorganized, I'd expect storm to become hurricane as it passes west of Bermuda into Atlantic in 5+ days
Quoting 325. sar2401:

It will create more shear in the track so it won't be good. There will also be interaction between the two lows, and that's also not generally good. Unless the storm can take a more northerly track, there's not a lot of good things on the menu for Bertha.



I agree. I'm also not sure how much of Bertha will be left to interact. Looking on satellite you can see a huge outflow boundary arcing away to the west and north of the center which is a sign that dry air not just aloft but at the low levels as made it into the storm. There is also an outflow boundary from the convection near South America speeding northward towards the llc which may disrupt it completely. If it can hold out till it approaches the region around Puerto Rico then it can survive but I honestly wouldn't be surprised if the llc opens up during the day and we wind up with a tropical wave getting absorbed into the front over the western atlantic early next week.
331. SLU
...CENTER OF BERTHA APPROACHING MARTINIQUE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 60.3W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM E OF MARTINIQUE
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM NNW OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
Quoting 327. Bubu77:

Quelque grosse rafales et c'est à nouveau le calme plat en Martinique.
Les inondations sont plus à craindre vue les bandes pluvieuses...

indio taino no entender un divino ! @ #
Quoting 289. EpsilonWeather:

Trying to stay moist...



Definitely decoupled though...


the center is in the dry air.
Well I see trash storm has come completely unglued at the hinges again. Shot a line from collapsing convection, and center racing away all on its own.
335. SLU
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA.

False alarm.
Quoting 320. redwagon:



Picking up the pieces... putting it back together?


What's the deal with the storm NE of Bertha? ULL??
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Q: what did the latest UKMET show for Bertha? Did it back down in intensity?
It's apparently still running. This is 36 hours and it shows the low north of the Bahamas, but I can't get a view further south.


Quoting 329. ncstorm:


Ryan Maue @RyanMaue · 1h

While #Bertha is sheared apart & disorganized, I'd expect storm to become hurricane as it passes west of Bermuda into Atlantic in 5+ days


Wouldn't be surprised if it did. As long as it can keep it together somewhat, it should be able strengthen once it enters a more favourable environment in a few days or so.
Quoting nocanesplease:

indio taino no entender un divino ! @ #
تاينو الهندية في فهم الإلهي!
Quoting 307. wunderkidcayman:

Hmm interesting



Recon in another pass
I think they found the LLC
LLC at 14.4N 60.1W





Yes, yes, very interesting!



You found analogs that would take it to the Cayman's. Shocking.

This junk storm, will go back to being a junk low in no time. The road ahead is just too hostile no matter which way she heads.
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:


What's the deal with the storm NE of Bertha? ULL??
Yeah a ULL that came off the front that cooled us down for a day. That ULL may turn out to be the winner as the remains of Bertha get closer.

Tropical Storm BERTHA Public Advisory

Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive

U.S. Watch/Warning Local Statements

000
WTNT33 KNHC 011741
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
200 PM AST FRI AUG 01 2014

...CENTER OF BERTHA APPROACHING MARTINIQUE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 60.3W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM E OF MARTINIQUE
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM NNW OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
We are flying on Saturday around 11am, how long should we be affected?

Thank you
Winds "near" 50 mph but now moving WNW at 22 mph. Not good for our Bertha.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.3 WEST. BERTHA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR MARTINIQUE
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA TONIGHT...AND APPROACH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
Quoting raphaelG:
We are flying on Saturday around 11am, how long should we be affected?

Thank you
Where to and from?
Quoting 320. redwagon:



Picking up the pieces... putting it back together?

Bertha is on a loop. Builds convection during night time...there goes convection during day time. My doubt is that with the shear she is about to encounter...could Bertha develop more convection later tonight and perfom like the last couple of days?
Quoting BahaHurican:
Other interesting thing with Bertha....



That eastern cloud boundary seems to be indicating the extent of potential cloud cover if convection wasn't being dislocated to the east.... like 1/2 big Bertha is what we currently have....


That's one impressive outflow boundary. It goes almost 1/2 the way around the storm.

It's like Bertha just let out a big breath and all her convection collaped at the same time leaving the exposed LLC.

It's usually a sign of a weakening system or a system having issues.
Quoting HurricaneKing:



I agree. I'm also not sure how much of Bertha will be left to interact. Looking on satellite you can see a huge outflow boundary arcing away to the west and north of the center which is a sign that dry air not just aloft but at the low levels as made it into the storm. There is also an outflow boundary from the convection near South America speeding northward towards the llc which may disrupt it completely. If it can hold out till it approaches the region around Puerto Rico then it can survive but I honestly wouldn't be surprised if the llc opens up during the day and we wind up with a tropical wave getting absorbed into the front over the western atlantic early next week.
It's now elongating with almost all the precipitation offset to the west and south of the center. If all those clouds have any actual rain, it will be good for almost all the Islands. I'm just hoping the current trend toward degeneration doesn't get much worse or the total rainfall for those who need it will be very disappointing.
the NHC dont seem to think Bertha will turn into nothing..a TS through to Wednesday..

350. JLPR2
Why are you falling apart now you silly TC? Pick up that rain and bring it WNW with you. :|

Quoting nocanesplease:

Bertha is on a loop. Builds convection during night time...there goes convection during day time. My doubt is that with the shear she is about to encounter...could Bertha develop more convection later tonight and perfom like the last couple of days?
Actually, last night was the first time DMAX really helped the then 93L. Before that, when 93L was much larger and weaker, the storm got worse overnight. Given what I see now, I'm not very hopeful DMAX is going to help much.
352. Relix
So far its spot on with the forecast track by NHC.
Quoting 329. ncstorm:


Ryan Maue @RyanMaue · 1h

While #Bertha is sheared apart & disorganized, I'd expect storm to become hurricane as it passes west of Bermuda into Atlantic in 5+ days
She reminds me of Gabrielle of last year. She almost became a hurricane near Bermuda. lets see if Bertha can do the same.
Quoting raphaelG:
We are flying on Saturday around 11am, how long should we be affected?

Thank you
I saw further down that is Punta Cana, DR. You'll be fine tomorrow morning. Bertha will still be far south of the DR. However, you'd better keep an eye on it while you're there and ask about hurricane shelters, just in case. Punta Cana has a pretty well organized civil defense system so there are worse place you could be.
Quoting ncstorm:
the NHC dont seem to think Bertha will turn into nothing..a TS through to Wednesday..



IMO, not a long shot that Bertha could attempt to approach hurricane status as it curves OTS.
The next update on the Satellite loop should probably show Bertha's LLC making her first landfall.
Tropical Storm BERTHA moving fast at 22mph.
Still some rains back to the NE of rubbish Bertha. Those may be able to hold together to get to some of the NE Islands...And even though I don't think Dmax will produce the same result as the past couple nights, it should at least serve to fire off some displaced convection that may bring rain to the islands.
Quoting 355. CybrTeddy:



IMO, not a long shot that Bertha could attempt to approach hurricane status as it curves OTS.

Yeah, the upper-level pattern will be much more favorable. Anticyclonic flow aloft and enhanced divergence via an approaching upper-level trough. The same situation that Arthur was in.
compared to what was thought this could be, this is a very pathetic storm.
Quoting hurricanes2018:
Tropical Storm BERTHA moving fast at 22mph.


That's been part of the problem. If Bertha slowed down to 12 mph, she would probably strengthen rather quickly.
Quoting 340. StormJunkie:




Yes, yes, very interesting!



You found analogs that would take it to the Cayman's. Shocking.

This junk storm, will go back to being a junk low in no time. The road ahead is just too hostile no matter which way she heads.
One track looks like Betsy.
Quoting 356. Sfloridacat5:

The next update on the Satellite loop should probably show Bertha's LLC making her first landfall.


Maybe another 30 - 45 minutes and she'll be on the northern end of Martinique? At least by the looks of the Barbados radar.
What's the (Train) next to the current HH flight. They letting some rookies take Kermit for a spin?
Another fast moving trash storm...
Winding up...
Quoting 350. JLPR2:

Why are you falling apart now you silly TC? Pick up that rain and bring it WNW with you. :|


If we don't get any rain i think i'll get a heart attack. Can't handle the anxiety!
Quoting 362. hydrus:

One track looks like Betsy.
It is.
You can see some sunshine on this view of the Martinique webcam:Link
Quoting Kowaliga:
Winding up...


And that's from 1:45 pm Eastern Time. So Bertha should have made landfall by now.


The MDR is losing some of its dry air....for now.
Quoting 367. Gearsts:

If we don't get any rain i think i'll get a heart attack. Can't handle the anxiety



It would have been best for all involved if she'd been passing the islands about 8 hours later.
Quoting 368. BahaHurican:

It is.
Betsy was a big hurricane...Hope no Betsy,s this year..Greetings Baha.. I would have seen it, my eyes are not as good these days.
Many people have many questions regarding why the storms just won't develop like the past.
The answer could be by asking the retired meteorologist this question. It seems like many in charge now
are just shooting darts blindfolded.
might be severe flooding along the southeast coastline this weekend with this front.................................
meanwhile over Africa. Since its Cape Verde season

yeah flood watches are indeed up..stay alert and safe folks...........................................FL OOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1004 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

...HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE FLOODING OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
TODAY AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...

.A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE AREA TODAY AND THROUGH MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
BETWEEN 3-5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION OVER ALREADY WET GROUND WILL
LEAD TO FLOODING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA, PARTICULARLY IN
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND NEAR SMALL RIVERS AND CREEKS.

12z

starting already........................................... ............SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
217 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

NCZ075-085-086-011915-
HOKE-MOORE-SCOTLAND-
217 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF WESTERN
HOKE...CENTRAL MOORE AND NORTHEASTERN SCOTLAND COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM
EDT...

AT 216 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES
EAST OF SEAGROVE TO SOUTHERN PINES TO 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HOFFMAN...
AND MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOUTHERN PINES...CARTHAGE...PINEHURST...ABERDEEN...WHISPERI NG
PINES...PINEBLUFF...ROBBINS...WAGRAM...VASS AND HIGHFALLS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
40 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND
TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR
OBJECTS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE
THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&
Quoting 377. bigwes6844:

meanwhile over Africa. Since its Cape Verde season


Sure looks like it. More to come for 2 months or more, lest something big happens..
383. SLU
Quoting 365. CaribBoy:

Another fast moving trash storm...


Complete false alarm here just like Chantal last year. If I were you i'd start looking east towards African again.
tropical storm will go out to sea in five days from now.
Quoting 371. Sfloridacat5:



And that's from 1:45 pm Eastern Time. So Bertha should have made landfall by now.

I'd sy you're correct...
Quoting 383. SLU:



Complete false alarm here just like Chantal last year. If I were you i'd start looking east towards African again.


Then when we will finally have a decent looking TS/Cat1 it'll go fishing well east of us :-(
Quoting 382. hydrus:

Sure looks like it. More to come for 2 months or more, lest something big happens..

yea im pretty sure its gonna get interesting real soon i think we are in for a big rollercoaster
nature reads the blog better watch out or it will give you nothing
Quoting 383. SLU:



Complete false alarm here just like Chantal last year. If I were you i'd start looking east towards African again.
thats why i posted Africa not too long ago. Me and hydrus
Quoting 309. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Iselle looks different than most East Pacific tropical cyclones. Reminds me of 2005's Hurricane Ophelia.




Remember the vorticies rotating around the center of that one? Pretty cool!
Welcome two n00b EPac invests:

Bertha 96E


97E
Quoting 386. CaribBoy:



Then when we will finally have a decent looking TS/Cat1 it'll go fishing well east of us :-(


Rubbish Atl...
Not quite landfall - but close

Welcome to August folks
Quoting Kowaliga:

I'd sy you're correct...


So close.
Wind out of E SE today, 15 gusting to 25. The temperature is quite high for the place, 91 F, but the unusual data point is humidity. It has "climbed" to 53% now after being as low as 49% a couple of hours ago. For St. Croix that is extremely low. This dry air is laden with Saharan Dust, all in all a pretty funky day.

Due to the wind, low humidity and parched bush we have been under a Red Flag Fire warning all day. So far so good but I have been expecting a fire all afternoon.

So much information, so many opinions that I'm just going to sleep well and expect to see 1 -3 inches of rain in the morning!
Starting to get the cirrus clouds over the east coast..another sign of Cape Verde Season..

Quoting 375. frank727:

Many people have many questions regarding why the storms just won't develop like the past.
The answer could be by asking the retired meteorologist this question. It seems like many in charge now
are just shooting darts blindfolded.


So Bertha is junk, and the Atl is trash...Because we have young guns forecasting? If we were still letting the old guys forecast; then it would be an active period? I'm very confused. This seems like a rubbish concept.
I wonder if NHC is going to give Martinique the official 1st landfall?
quite a false alarm, the MDR SEEMS TO BE A CONTINUATION OF LAST YEAR. dry sinking air, fast trade winds high shear, SAl and strong Bermuda high. wonder whether we coming to the end of the active period which started in 1995. we maybe in for a lull for sometime.
A little convection redeveloping near the center, and the in the clump back to the E a bit. Hopefully these things will help up the rain totals.
I don't think Bertha will be a tropical cyclone continuously for all of the next 5 days. Moderate shear, a little bit of dry air, her fast movement, and a little land interaction will probably be too much. She should degenerate into a wave within the next 48 hours, followed by possible regeneration east/northeast of the Bahamas a couple days later if enough of her survives (largely dependent upon how much interaction there is with Hispaniola).

403. Relix
Will the ULL help Bertha ventilate as she enters the Caribbean?
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
I wonder if NHC is going to give Martinique the official 1st landfall?


Almost there...

Good afternoon, all. I have posted a video discussion on Tropical Storm Bertha for those interested:

Tropical Tidbits for Friday, August 1st, 2014
Quoting 400. stoormfury:

quite a false alarm, the MDR SEEMS TO BE A CONTINUATION OF LAST YEAR. dry sinking air, fast trade winds high shear, SAl and strong Bermuda high. wonder whether we coming to the end of the active period which started in 1995. we maybe in for a lull for sometime.
Quoting 400. stoormfury:

quite a false alarm, the MDR SEEMS TO BE A CONTINUATION OF LAST YEAR. dry sinking air, fast trade winds high shear, SAl and strong Bermuda high. wonder whether we coming to the end of the active period which started in 1995. we maybe in for a lull for sometime.
Hello S.F...There are some of the same issues as last year, but I believe dry air will not be as bad during the peak of the season. A big player will be the strength and position of the Bermuda High and the Hadley Cell Circulation..JMO
She needs to slow her roll to strengthen.
Call me crazy, but I don't think this is a 70mph tropical storm anymore.
410. SLU
Quoting 386. CaribBoy:



Then when we will finally have a decent looking TS/Cat1 it'll go fishing well east of us :-(


Maybe in 25 years when we get back into another active phase.
Quoting 403. Relix:

Will the ULL help Bertha ventilate as she enters the Caribbean?
Yes, it should help Bertha fire convection.
For those that missed nrti's microwave tutorial earlier...85-91GHz shows the mid to upper structure of a storm; and 37GHz shows the lower structure. At least that is my understanding in simplified terms.

Trash Bertha is slightly decoupled from NW to SE it seems, but not a whole lot.



Quoting 407. Gearsts:


Low shear?
well finally most sections of Kingston and Spanish town got some good showers and thunderstorms yesterday, but will the trend continues or will it be a one day wonder.
Quoting 410. SLU:



Maybe in 25 years when we get back into another active phase.


I know this is a sarcastic statement but there is also some truth to it. I pretty much believe that the active period that began in '95 has ended and we are now in a calmer period much like the '70s and 80's. One question that the experts can't answer right now is the impacts of a changing climate. We'll have to wait and see about that.
Looks like they should be able to call landfall between 1850 and 1855 right at La Caravelle.
Bertha
Quoting 395. Sfloridacat5:



So close.

Martinique.......'eyewallin' it...
The Lesser Antilles sure are assisting on increasing the TSTM activity on Bertha... will it remain so after crossing into the Carib... hmmm
Quoting 405. Levi32:

Good afternoon, all. I have posted a video discussion on Tropical Storm Bertha for those interested:

Tropical Tidbits for Friday, August 1st, 2014


Levi, thank you very much, as always.
If you are still online: One question please which came up several times during the last hours: the large belt of clouds first ahead to the northwest and now also west of Bertha - what is it: outflow of collapsing thunderstorms or the boundary of Bertha's tropical wave reacting with dry air? It doesn't seem to be a real outflow channel.


Quoting Kowaliga:

Martinique.......'eyewallin' it...


Yep, and that radar image is only 20 minutes old so Bertha is really close to making landfall or landfall is currently taking place.
StormJunkie says, "So Bertha is Junk and the Atlantic is trash"..........

Bertha is a unique and beautiful expression of a timeless weather phenomena, one critical to balancing the ocean and atmosphere in the Tropics. The Atlantic is a vast and mesmerizing body of water, an environment for thousands of marine species, a life giving water world of immense beauty and importance to all life on earth.

A Crucian says, "Get the big picture. Storm formation is just a minor fascinating piece of a very large puzzle. Meteorology and Ocean Science are not competitive sports"
425. SLU
Quoting 415. jrweatherman:



I know this is a sarcastic statement but there is also some truth to it. I pretty much believe that the active period that began in '95 has ended and we are now in a calmer period much like the '70s and 80's. One question that the experts can't answer right now is the impacts of a changing climate. We'll have to wait and see about that.


Yeah and I don't believe the experts will finally acknowledge that we may be in a 1970's style quiet phase until 5 - 7 years into it. But it think it's getting more and more obvious week after week.
The GFS isn't forecasting any additional strong convectively-coupled kelvin waves to traverse the central/eastern Atlantic over the next week. Without one, our main (if not only) interest should be Tropical Storm Bertha.

Quoting bigwes6844:


Only surf in the GOM is over by Corpus Christi, which is pretty common.

Mustang Island (on North Padre Island) has the most consistant surf in the GOM.
A S.E. flow is the most common flow pattern for the GOM, and that pushes most of the waves to the Texas coast.

I lived on the intercoastal waterway across from North Padre Island and lots of people surf at Bob Hall Pier (best surf spot when I lived their)
NHC might say Bertha threaded the needle between the islands.
We need to see a satellite image or radar image with the LLC over Martinique.
We have a good 20 years of this active period to go, before the Atlantic begins to cool. The only reason the waters are below normal is the SAL, and the waters are only slightly below normal, still warm enough for storms to form.
Quoting 415. jrweatherman:



I know this is a sarcastic statement but there is also some truth to it. I pretty much believe that the active period that began in '95 has ended and we are now in a calmer period much like the '70s and 80's. One question that the experts can't answer right now is the impacts of a changing climate. We'll have to wait and see about that.
Based on 2 years? I think we need longer than that to determine if we are in a calmer period. I say the moment we have a La Nina and that season produces 10 or less named storms then we would be in a calmer period, but until then it's probably factors like dry air in the mid-levels and SAL.
I will say this though if we don't get El Nino this season it will be the first time since record keeping began in 1950 that we went 5 years w/o an El Nino. Now that would be a pretty remarkable feet and could be why last season was lackluster and this season as well.
The east Atlantic is very very moist now

Quoting 397. hydrus:

Starting to get the cirrus clouds over the east coast..another sign of Cape Verde Season..




is that what i think is happening :o
it's gaining convection near it's center
Quoting 434. weatherlover94:

The east Atlantic is very very moist now




My memories are weak, but I've got the impression that central Africa is already producing more moisture and stronger waves than last year. Very exciting to watch how it will pan out in respect to real hurricanes! (My bet on their number was quite high, despite El Nino, btw, but of course only by gut feeling, lol).
But the above observation may be caused by the availability of better maps though ;-)
Quoting 420. barbamz:



Levi, thank you very much, as always.
If you are still online: One question please which came up several times during the last hours: the large belt of clouds first ahead to the northwest and now also west of Bertha - what is it: outflow of collapsing thunderstorms or the boundary of Bertha's tropical wave reacting with dry air? It doesn't seem to be a real outflow channel.





Definitely an outflow boundary from the thunderstorm complex that collapsed earlier this morning.
this is cool to me I think....a storm at the beginning of July and a storm at the main end of July...the last hour of July....wonder if we won't see another storm until late August ?...Humm
Quoting 409. Ameister12:

Call me crazy, but I don't think this is a 70mph tropical storm anymore.



I said this in post 273.
Bertha trying to fire some thunderstorm clusters near her center in the last frames. And that outflow boundry?....Holy Moly!



We are not in an actual El Ninio yet but going that way....The past season was almost like 1992 minus a cat 5 Hurricane...2012 wasn't a year of strong Hurricanes with only 1 major storm and that was Sandy....even though we only has 1 major Issac and Sandy where bad Hurricanes

Quoting 436. barbamz:



My memories are weak, but I've got the impression that central Africa is already producing more moisture and stronger waves than last year. Very exciting to watch how it will pan out in respect to real hurricanes! (My bet on their number was quite high, despite El Nino, btw, but of course only by gut feeling, lol).
But the above observation may be caused by the availability of better maps though ;-)
Quoting 437. Levi32:



Definitely an outflow boundary from the thunderstorm complex that collapsed earlier this morning.


Okay, thank you, Levi. I was a bit puzzled because this boundary matched exactly the extent of the tropical wave shown by Mimic-TPW (already for some time earlier).
Quoting 409. Ameister12:

Call me crazy, but I don't think this is a 70mph tropical storm anymore.



It's not, it was updated as 75kts in the 18z update:

11W HALONG 140801 1800 14.9N 136.9E WPAC 75 967

JTWC (who the WU page uses) doesn't update until 21z GMT, which is in about an hour. (I think its 3z, 9z, 15z and 21z that they do their updates).
LOL....They are soooo desperate to make this look like a huge threat to the CONUS.
Hawaii looks to be in the game...

Strong hurricane behind Iselle




If this is as far back as records go, I think we may be able to go a lot longer without an El-Nino. 64 yrs. is not very long in the Earths history.
Quoting 441. weatherlover94:

We are not in an actual El Ninio yet but going that way....The past season was almost like 1992 minus a cat 5 Hurricane...2012 wasn't a year of strong Hurricanes with only 1 major storm and that was Sandy....even though we only has 1 major Issac and Sandy where bad Hurricanes




Yeah, my fault. I meant but failed to say: predicted El Nino. I'm still curious to see it happen.
Quoting barbamz:


Okay, thank you, Levi. I was a bit puzzled because this boundary matched exactly the extent of the tropical wave shown by Mimic-TPW (already for some time earlier).


You didn't believe post# 347 (corrected post#) when I said it was an impressive outflow boundary.
Maybe you took a break and missed it.

That was one impressive outflow (one of the best I've seen in a long time).
No prob Barb ...I think if El Ninio does form it won't be until late in the season and start to end around the end of the next hurricane season

Quoting 448. barbamz:



Yeah, my fault. I meant but failed to say: predicted El Nino. I'm still curious to see it happen.
To all those calling this 'trash' ya it's not pretty but it is a NAMED TROPICAL CYCLONE in the ATLANTIC for gosh sakes! Be happy!
Quoting 449. Sfloridacat5:



You didn't believe post# 397 when I said it was an impressive outflow boundary.
Maybe you took a break and missed it.

That was one impressive outflow (one of the best I've seen in a long time).


No, I didn't miss it. And exactly because I've read it and because I've earlier inclined to the other explanation I wanted to know the "outcome", lol. Hmm, maybe both theories are somehow right: yesterday this boundary consisted of clouds/thunderstorms which didn't seem - in my eyes - to be related to the (than barely active) tropical center of Bertha. Today they collapsed, because of what reason ever. But I didn't have the impression that this collapsing was happening right in the center of Bertha. But of course, I don't have real clues.
Quoting 446. MaxWeather:

Hawaii looks to be in the game...

Strong hurricane behind Iselle







Wow.
Quoting 434. weatherlover94:

The east Atlantic is very very moist now


Bertha is entering an area of lower shear, should see some more convective development nearer the center this evening.



storms west of the center now which had been previously non-existent.



Trying to cover up that COC...


It has seemed like the season is a dud but if you look at it 2014 has made history with the first landfalling Cat 2 since Hurricane Ike in 2008....6 years
One thing Bertha got right is timing with regards to going thru the islands. DMAX on land is basically now and the next couple hours. And just like clockwork, new convection forms.
Does the brown represent moisture ?

Quoting 454. bigwes6844:


Instability back on the increase in the Tropical ATL, wonder how high it will go? Moisture seems to be on an increasing trend lately.

Quoting 435. Articuno:



is that what i think is happening :o
it's gaining convection near it's center



Yes it is
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Guys I have noticed something ahead of Bertha, it dpinning and lots of thunderstorms. Could we have Christobal.
anyone has the new ATCF numbers out?? I lost the link for that
Quoting 459. weatherlover94:

Does the brown represent moisture ?




Yes, the more brown/orange, the more moisture. Blue/purple is dry.
Quoting 459. weatherlover94:

Does the brown represent moisture ?


yes
ok now IF..big IF here....this occures...would the storm keep moving more westward?......................................... ...An alternative scenario remains possible: that a
combination of shear, dry air entrainment, and land interaction
causes Bertha to degenerate to a tropical wave during the next 48
hours, followed by possible regeneration in the 72-120 hours when
the system reaches the more favorable environment.

There's the Aqua pass of Bertha today..