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93L in Middle Atlantic Close to Tropical Depression Status

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:22 PM GMT on July 29, 2014

An area of disturbed weather located near 10°N, 39°W at 8 am EDT Tuesday, about 1600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, (93L), has the potential to develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday, but is struggling with high wind shear today. Visible satellite loops on Tuesday morning showed improved organization to 93L with more spin and some low-level spiral bands beginning to form. A 7:30 am EDT July 29 pass from the ASCAT satellite showed plenty of west winds on the south side of 93L's center of circulation, so the storm is close to having a well-defined closed surface circulation. However, infrared satellite images showed that the system's heavy thunderstorm activity had diminished somewhat since Monday, and the storm is now fighting high wind shear of about 20 knots. Water vapor satellite loops and the Saharan Air Layer analysis showed that 93L had more dry air to contend with than on Monday, with some tendrils of the dry Saharan Air Layer to the north encroaching into the circulation. Ocean temperatures have cooled since Monday, and are now marginal for development, about 27°C.


Figure 1. Analysis of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) made at 8 am EDT Tuesday July 29, 2014 using data from the Meteosat-9 satellite. Dry, dusty air was present from the coast of Africa westwards across the tropical Atlantic, and was beginning to encroach from the north into tropical disturbance 93L. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS/NOAA Hurricane Research Division.

Forecast for 93L
Given the high levels of wind shear affecting 93L today, it is more likely that NHC will classify it as a tropical depression on Wednesday than today. The 12 UTC Tuesday forecast from the SHIPS model predicted that the current high wind shear affecting 93L will relax to the moderate level, 5 - 15 knots, Wednesday afternoon through Friday, aiding development. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) will slowly warm as the system approaches the Caribbean, reaching 28°C by Friday and Saturday. Two of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the GFS and UKMET models, predicted in their 00Z Tuesday runs that the disturbance would develop into a tropical depression by Thursday. The fact that two out of three of the reliable genesis models predict development bolsters the odds that development will actually occur. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 2-day and 5-day odds of development at 70% and 80%, respectively.

All of the models predict that the disturbance will continue west or west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph for the next four days. The UKMET and the European models offer the fastest solution, predicting that the disturbance will arrive in the northeast Lesser Antilles Islands on Friday evening, move over Puerto Rico on Saturday evening, and approach the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Sunday evening. The GFS is slower and more to the northeast, predicting a Saturday morning arrival in the northern Lesser Antilles, with passage a few hundred miles northeast of Puerto Rico occurring on Sunday morning. Dry air to the north of 93L will likely interfere with development throughout the week, and we will have to see if the moderate levels of wind shear forecast to occur will be capable of driving this dry air into the core of the system, disrupting formation. The disturbance may also have trouble disentangling itself from the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the band of heavy thunderstorms that circles the globe in the tropics, which lies just to the south of the disturbance. Clusters of thunderstorms in the ITCZ may compete for moisture and energy, slowing development of the disturbance. The Tuesday morning runs of our two most reliable models for predicting intensity, the LGEM and DSHIPS models, forecast that once 93L became a tropical depression, it would intensify into a hurricane within 72 hours. However, the dynamical GFDL and HWRF models, which made good intensity forecasts for Hurricane Arthur, were much less bullish. The Tuesday morning runs of these models predicted that 93L would never reach hurricane strength. I give a 10% chance that 93L will be a hurricane on Saturday when it makes its closest approach to the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 93L hits the Northern Lesser Antilles as a wet Tropical Storm Bertha (not a hurricane), the storm could be more boon than bane for the islands. The Northeast Caribbean suffered its driest June in recorded history last month, according to NOAA, and many of the islands have significant drought problems.

The GFS and European models have come into better agreement on the long-range fate of 93L. The great majority of the 20 members of the 00Z and 06Z Tuesday runs of the European and GFS ensemble models (which run at low resolution 20 times with slightly different initial conditions to show a range of possible outcomes) showed 93L taking more of a northwesterly track early next week, passing to the north of Hispaniola and not making an extended track through the Caribbean Sea. This raises the odds that the strong trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. will be able to recurve 93L out to sea without the storm hitting the mainland U.S. coast.


Figure 2. Image taken at 9:54 am EDT July 29, 2014, from the Guam radar, showing heavy rains from an outer spiral band of Tropical Storm Halong affecting Guam. The eyewall of the intensifying storm is visible to the east.

Tropical Storm Halong approaching Guam
In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Halong is close to becoming a Category 1 typhoon, and is expected to pass within 50 miles of Guam near 12 UTC (8 am EDT) on Wednesday. Guam radar is showing that heavy rains from an outer spiral band of Halong have already arrived. Halong may be a long-range threat to Japan.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. sar2401
Quoting SSL1441:
Well, 2 AM advisory in... still no tropical depression... I don't think it'll be long though... Last few Visible satellite images seem to show the center apparent with cluster of storms developing on the east side of what almost looks like an eye. Matched with a blowup of storms over on the west side. This storm is still very low it seems though. We'll see what this does... Could this be the start of the big blow up?

There seems to have been a considerable deterioration in the convection since the last visible pictures. It's still an impressively large circulation but the lack of deep convection is a big problem. The NHC persists in saying that the broad area of circulation is moving WNW when it sure looks like it's still moving straight west and has yet to get above 10N. The dry air is really starting to injure 93L at a time when it should be getting a lot more convection. It seems to me that the real question is if 93L's circulation can remain intact over the next 12 hours rather than a big blowup about to take place.


Models have shifted west tonight, haven't said that the past few night though tonight looks more prominent.
1003. 7544
Quoting 997. hurricanes2018:

DATE TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION ID NAME
20140729 2345 9.5 41.2 T1.0/1.5 93L 93L
20140729 1745 9.5 40.1 T1.0/1.5 93L 93L
20140729 1145 9.9 38.7 T1.5/1.5 93L 93L
20140729 0545 9.9 37.3 T1.0/1.0 93L 93L


thanks isnt 1.5 a td ?


Trough also appears to be lighting out, lets see how strong the secondary is in a few days.
1005. Grothar
Quoting 988. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Will the new model tracks be further south master?


Look, just because I nailed, Arthur, Sandy, Debbie, Isaac, Ivan, Ernesto, Daniell, Bonnie and a few more, you think I'm an expert. I'm just a little old man with a paper bag and a pencil who makes good guesses. So I know what the EURO is going to be the next day; no big deal. :)

(Yes, I believe further South.) temporarily.
Quoting 1001. sar2401:


There seems to have been a considerable deterioration in the convection since the last visible pictures. It's still an impressively large circulation but the lack of deep convection is a big problem. The NHC persists in saying that the broad area of circulation is moving WNW when it sure looks like it's still moving straight west and has yet to get above 10N. The dry air is really starting to injure 93L at a time when it should be getting a lot more convection. It seems to me that the real question is if 93L's circulation can remain intact over the next 12 hours rather than a big blowup about to take place.


That is the real question. With the Caribbean shear dropping there is a chance this finds the central Caribbean with conducive conditions and then all the models will have to readjust and the game changes. Looking like another 24 hours before this forms to TD, so a more southern trajectory is becoming more likely.
I asked my magic 8 ball if 93L would become a hurricane... This is the answer I got.






I'm losing faith in my ball.
Quoting 1005. Grothar:



Look, just because I nailed, Arthur, Sandy, Debbie, Isaac, Ivan, Ernesto, Daniell, Bonnie and a few more, you think I'm an expert. I'm just a little old man with a paper bag and a pencil who makes good guesses. So I know what the EURO is going to be the next day; no big deal. :)

(Yes, I believe further South.) temporarily.


The Ted Williams of projections, Gro you will go down in the HHOF(hurricane hall of fame). First member. I've just emailed the NHC told them to get on it.
1009. sar2401
Quoting DeepSeaRising:


Really looks like with borderline SST's and dry air to the north, we'll get a weak TS Bertha. And if she fish's then she'll become a 70mph TS and be no threat or go further South and maybe become hurricane Bertha and threaten the continental. This is a 10% possibility at best. Or remain weak and unformed and go into the Caribbean and get shredded. Fun times ahead.

As long as it can maintain its current large circulation almost any outcome is possible. Just looking at the satellite pictures and without reference to any models, it looks like 93L will finally make it to TD status but too late for a meaningful turn north. That means it gets into the Caribbean somewhere south of 15N. After that, it is still an open question. Just a WAG on my part.
No change in TWO
NHC changes timing now stating that a TD could form today or tomorrow
Rather than later today or tonight

Keep in mind that today is now the 30th not 29th
I'd like to point out that we have many old good bloggers. Sar is very old too :). And on a real point we don't get knowledge from our elders like we use to. We celebrate pretty over intellect in the West. Respect and learning from those before us is where true knowledge lies. Intellect and wisdom is only from what is passed down and grown.
1012. Grothar
Quoting 1008. DeepSeaRising:



The Ted Williams of projections, Gro you will go down in the HHOF(hurricane hall of fame). First member. I've just emailed the NHC told them to get on it.


They don't like me there. Everytime I write to them and tell them where a storm is going they ignore me. They won't even acknowledge my blobcons.
Quoting 1012. Grothar:



They don't like me there. Everytime I write to them and tell them where a storm is going they ignore me. They won't even acknowledge my blobcons.


The populace would respond so well to blobcons. As we do here. Giant circles on the map is where it's at Gro!
1014. sar2401
Quoting DeepSeaRising:
I'd like to point out that we have many old good bloggers. Sar is very old too :). And on a real point we don't get knowledge from our elders like we use to. We celebrate pretty over intellect in the West. Respect and learning from those before us is where true knowledge lies. Intellect and wisdom is only from what is passed down and grown.

I am very old...and no one I remember has ever called me pretty, so those are two correct points. Gro and I can still stay up late as well, a feat not managed by many of our advanced years. As long as the Depends don't start filling up, I'm usually good until about 0200, so I'm proud of that. :-)
Quoting 1014. sar2401:


I am very old...and no one I remember has ever called me pretty, so those are two correct points. Gro and I can still stay up late as well, a feat not managed by many of our advanced years. As long as the Depends don't start filling up, I'm usually good until about 0200, so I'm proud of that. :-)


A beautiful mind and a pretty face should never be confused. A beautiful face fades, a beautiful mind has staying power and gets passed down through generations.
Quoting 1009. sar2401:


As long as it can maintain its current large circulation almost any outcome is possible. Just looking at the satellite pictures and without reference to any models, it looks like 93L will finally make it to TD status but too late for a meaningful turn north. That means it gets into the Caribbean somewhere south of 15N. After that, it is still an open question. Just a WAG on my part.

Yeah
The younguns are to bed, and yet Sar, you and Gro are still up. I respect you two very much. I miss my pilot in WWII Grandfather, he was a giant of a man. You two make me laugh, make me think, make me be thankful for those who have come before me. Thank you.
Convection popping near center of Invest 93L and it may get better organized later today. Let's see how much of a fighter it will be today.


Link

1019. sar2401
Quoting 7544:


thanks isnt 1.5 a td ?

You might want to read the narrative that goes with the 2345 update. It's really not at T1.5.

TXNT25 KNES 300017
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93L)

B. 29/2345Z

C. 9.5N

D. 41.2W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.5/W0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...CIRCULATION IS LARGELY DEVOID OF CONVECTION AND WHAT
LITTLE EXISTS TO THE SW OF THE CENTER FAILS TO MEET THE REQUIREMENTS
FOR A T1.0. MET AND PT ARE ALSO LESS THAN 1.0. FT IS BASED ON THE
CONSTRAINT THAT PREVENTS LOWERING THE FT AT NIGHT DURING THE FIRST 48
HOURS OF DEVELOPMENT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL
Link

...TURK

So how's the junk wave doing?
This is one of the most unpredictable systems we've maybe ever seen.
1022. SSL1441
This young'un.. possibly one of the youngest here.... is off to bed. You guys take care now :)
Quoting 963. sar2401:


Is there still an actual low there?


When it's spinning this vigorously, it's hard to imagine that there isn't.
Good chance this goes right to Bertha by tomorrow afternoon or night. Probably 60/40 at this point. Could always open up, by that's a 10% probability. We'll have Bertha by eight PM tomorrow in all likelihood.
Quoting 1003. 7544:



thanks isnt 1.5 a td ?


It's 25 kt; it can be. But the NHC normally assigns advisories when TAFB/SAB are unanimous with 2.0 (30 kt/35 mph).
1026. Grothar
Quoting 1015. DeepSeaRising:



A beautiful mind and a pretty face should never be confused. A beautiful face fades, a beautiful mind has staying power and gets passed down through generations.


Thankfully, I was blessed with both. :)
Speaking of pretty faces, good to see you Kori! What's your forecast? So hard to say, but your one of our best.
1028. sar2401
Quoting meteorologistkidFL:
Convection popping near center of Invest 93L and it may get better organized later today. Let's see how much of a fighter it will be today.


Link


Is that your web site in the link?
1029. Grothar
Good night. I'm fading fast. I thought it was 2:30 in the afternoon and wondered why it was so dark. We flew in late this afternoon so I am a quite tired. We'll see what 93L has in store for us tomorrow.

1030. sar2401
Quoting SSL1441:
This young'un.. possibly one of the youngest here.... is off to bed. You guys take care now :)

GN Kid. Stick around long enough and you'll be old too. :-)
1031. sar2401
Quoting Grothar:
Good night. I'm fading fast. I thought it was 2:30 in the afternoon and wondered why it was so dark. We flew in late this afternoon so I am a quite tired. We'll see what 93L has in store for us tomorrow.


Your circadian clock is all messed up. Have a good sleep.
Ok, so let me break it down a little. Convection is not "popping"...At least right yet. 93 is not going in to the Carib if it survives at all...And it certainly wouldn't survive the trade winds in the Carib even if it did. There is little chance that this will ever be a TD, much less a tropical storm if it doesn't start to build some convection relatively quickly.

In a nut shell, it is in really bad shape...it had its chance yesterday and it completely blew it. Choose your best line, but it's a junk low, a trash wave, or whatever else you want to call it. There is heavier convection with the storms just E of the islands than there are with 93.
1033. sar2401
Quoting StormJunkie:
So how's the junk wave doing?

LOL. Still pretty junky. I'm waiting for signs of DMAX. It seems to be a pattern this year at least that DMAX is doing nothing for tropical systems. It started last year but it's really consistent this year, even with Arthur. Dry air, shear, all the rest, can affect any storm, but what happened to DMAX? Very strange.
Quoting 976. JLPR2:



Yeah!
If that happens everyone to the beach to do the Beyonce dance. xD

Reminds me of Irene hitting P.R.

1035. sar2401
Quoting StormJunkie:
Ok, so let me break it down a little. Convection is not "popping"...At least right yet. 93 is not going in to the Carib if it survives at all...And it certainly wouldn't survive the trade winds in the Carib even if it did. There is little chance that this will ever be a TD, much less a tropical storm if it doesn't start to build some convection relatively quickly.

In a nut shell, it is in really bad shape...it had its chance yesterday and it completely blew it. Choose your best line, but it's a junk low, a trash wave, or whatever else you want to call it. There is heavier convection with the storms just E of the islands than there are with 93.

Well, that's a rather harsh analysis but certainly true. I will say that this does have a chance to get into the Caribbean if it survives as more then an open wave. I only say this because it's so weak that I don't see anywhere else it can go as it continues to move west. 93L's future in the Caribbean is bleak at best if it makes it there. I'd really like to see it make a turn and bring some rain to the Islands but that prospect is growing more dim by the hour.
1036. sar2401
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Reminds me of Irene hitting P.R.


What? Beyonce reminds you of Irene? I don't think Irene would be very pleased to hear that. :-)
Quoting 1032. StormJunkie:

Ok, so let me break it down a little. Convection is not "popping"...At least right yet. 93 is not going in to the Carib if it survives at all...And it certainly wouldn't survive the trade winds in the Carib even if it did. There is little chance that this will ever be a TD, much less a tropical storm if it doesn't start to build some convection relatively quickly.

In a nut shell, it is in really bad shape...it had its chance yesterday and it completely blew it. Choose your best line, but it's a junk low, a trash wave, or whatever else you want to call it. There is heavier convection with the storms just E of the islands than there are with 93.

Oh no you didn't! Think that is a bit harsh. This is a system that is well formed and will do so. Agree that if this goes too far South then it is likely to become doomed to trade winds. Not going to happen. Going to form. No trash wave, TD, likely TS coming in the next 24. So hard to say with questionable SST's, and dry air. One of the hardest calls we've seen in years no doubt.
I see all of these "old" comments lol.. What is considered old now? I'm 40 (ish) and in my prime!! My grandfather is 88 and will run circles around most 25 year old's. He doesn't know how to use a computer or iToy and claims that electronic devices are ruining today's youth. His words "makin nem' young uns' lazy n useless". He spends all of his time outdoors fishing, gardening or chasing great grand kids around the yard with a china berry switch. Lord knows I felt the switches off of that same tree many times myself lol....
Sar saying this reminds me of Irene???? Now I'm really interested. Tomorrow will tell so much. Beauty of the tropics in full swing and a season that is coming to life.
Quoting 1029. Grothar:

Good night. I'm fading fast. I thought it was 2:30 in the afternoon and wondered why it was so dark. We flew in late this afternoon so I am a quite tired. We'll see what 93L has in store for us tomorrow.




if you are still here....goodnight most wise one!
Quoting 1038. HimacaneBrees:

I see all of these "old" comments lol.. What is considered old now? I'm 40 (ish) and in my prime!! My grandfather is 88 and will run circles around most 25 year old's. He doesn't know how to use a computer or iToy and claims that electronic devices are ruining today's youth. His words "makin nem' young uns' lazy n useless". He spends all of his time outdoors fishing, gardening or chasing great grand kids around the yard with a china berry switch. Lord knows I felt the switches off of that same tree many times myself lol....


You are a young whipper snapper.........lol.........but since you can BBQ well, it will not be held against you....pass dem shrimp!
Quoting 1036. sar2401:


What? Beyonce reminds you of Irene? I don't think Irene would be very pleased to hear that. :-)


LOL........I would imagine so!
Quoting DeepSeaRising:
Sar saying this reminds me of Irene???? Now I'm really interested. Tomorrow will tell so much. Beauty of the tropics in full swing and a season that is coming to life.


Granted we've watched one storm and a couple waves and it's not even August. As of right now, the next few weeks look very quiet. That could change, but no supporting evidence yet. As for 93...it is in serious dire straits. It is not healthy at all. From the Ascat earlier and microwave passes...I am wondering if vertical stacking is its real problem. Low level disrupting the mid level and vice versa. Calling it a junk low at this point honestly seems generous.
Quoting 1043. StormJunkie:



Granted we've watched one storm and a couple waves and it's not even August. As of right now, the next few weeks look very quiet. That could change, but no supporting evidence yet. As for 93...it is in serious dire straits. It is not healthy at all. From the Ascat earlier and microwave passes...I am wondering if vertical stacking is its real problem. Low level disrupting the mid level and vice versa. Calling it a junk low at this point honestly seems generous.


I disagree. The 500 mb pattern is about to do a 180, with the trough aloft over the east coast giving way to ridging. I don't know how long this will last, but I'm confident it happens.

If true, that'll open up the western Atlantic for activity, as well as preventing all the heat from being pulled out of the tropics by the trough.
Quoting 1041. HurricaneHunterJoe:



You are a young whipper snapper.........lol.........but since you can BBQ well, it will not be held against you....pass dem shrimp!


Hey Joe! How you doin T? LOL.. I'm heading in from offshore Thursday AM and will be picking up some o dem extra large skrimps straight outta da net in Venice, La., to go on da grill dat aftanoon. They good yeah T boy.

That's a pretty dog in your avatar. My wife and kids gave me a black lab for fathers day. His name is Odell Beckham, you know he had to have an LSU name lol! My chocolate lab passed a few months ago. She had been my right hand man for over 10 years.
Quoting 1037. DeepSeaRising:


Oh no you didn't! Think that is a bit harsh. This is a system that is well formed and will do so. Agree that if this goes too far South then it is likely to become doomed to trade winds. Not going to happen. Going to form. No trash wave, TD, likely TS coming in the next 24. So hard to say with questionable SST's, and dry air. One of the hardest calls we've seen in years no doubt.


Yes it will.....no it won't......yes it will.....no it won't.......yes it will.......no it won't.......LOL
ok, so i see the posts are now about beyonce? is pre-bertha dead?
Quoting 1047. saltydog1327:

ok, so i see the posts are now about beyonce? is pre-bertha dead?


It's just WU being WU, dude.
Kori, you may be right. I'm only saying there is no model support for another system in the near future.

Salty, if it's not dead yet it certainly has the coroner on super rapid speed dial.
1050. FOREX
Quoting 1024. DeepSeaRising:

Good chance this goes right to Bertha by tomorrow afternoon or night. Probably 60/40 at this point. Could always open up, by that's a 10% probability. We'll have Bertha by eight PM tomorrow in all likelihood.


What makes you think so??
Quoting 1049. StormJunkie:

Kori, you may be right. I'm only saying there is no model support for another system in the near future.

Salty, if it's not dead yet it certainly has the coroner on super rapid speed dial.


The models will likely latch onto something sooner or later if that pattern pans out.

It's meteorologically inevitable almost.
HWRF 96 hours



And Irene in 2011

Quoting 1050. FOREX:



What makes you think so??


Structure is great, NHC thinks so, and this should rebound through the afternoon tomorrow. This is a real unknown right now. No way to say one way or another.
Convection continues to... fail to organize:

1055. ackee
93L looks horrible weak I just don't so how it going make that sharp turn towards the NE carribean unless it start to strengten qucikly the last couple years condtion in the MDR are just not right for devolpment if 93L does go into the carribean it will likely have similar faith as TD#2
Quoting 1045. HimacaneBrees:



Hey Joe! How you doin T? LOL.. I'm heading in from offshore Thursday AM and will be picking up some o dem extra large skrimps straight outta da net in Venice, La., to go on da grill dat aftanoon. They good yeah T boy.

That's a pretty dog in your avatar. My wife and kids gave me a black lab for fathers day. His name is Odell Beckham, you know he had to have an LSU name lol! My chocolate lab passed a few months ago. She had been my right hand man for over 10 years.


Im on the next flight!! Fresh outta the net.......oh lord some people are spoiled! I'm doing ok. They keeping you busy?Dogs name is Josie...short for Josephina........5 1/2 years old and you couldn't have a better friend! Sorry about you losing your dog. I don't even want to imagine losing Josie! I loves me dog a lot more than most of the relatives/friends I have known.....she asks for nothing....yet she provides sooooo much! Now when was that BBQ again?.....LOL
Quoting 1054. KoritheMan:

Convection continues to... fail to organize:


Could it be as simple as cooler water and drier/stable air?
Quoting 1057. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Could it be as simple as cooler water and drier/stable air?


Marginal thermodynamics and persistent northerly shear, most likely.

Although there are signs the shear is beginning to abate.
1059. Speeky
Genevieve is that you in the corner there?
1060. Speeky
So, I guess Genevieve is forecasted to cross over into the West Pacific

And hit Japan?


Has this happened before?
This, in NO way, depicts a structurally sound system...





Someone needs to break out the bugle...
Quoting 1060. Speeky:

So, I guess Genevieve is forecaster to cross over into the West Pacific

And hit Japan?


Has this happened before?


There have been more than a slew of transpacific tropical cyclones. I don't know if there's ever been precedent for one to make it that far west and hit Japan, though. Most of them dissipate before then.
About 9.5N and 43W?

Quoting 1061. StormJunkie:

This, in NO way, depicts a structurally sound system...





Someone needs to break out the bugle...


Has issues eh?
1065. Speeky
Quoting 1062. KoritheMan:



There have been more than a slew of transpacific tropical cyclones. I don't know if there's ever been precedent for one to make it that far west and hit Japan, though. Most of them dissipate before then.


I am going to look up the furthest westward traveled Eastern Pacific Tropical cyclone.

I doubt that Tropical Depression Genevieve will make it all the way to Japan, after all it is more than 15 days away
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Has issues eh?


93 would like to thank you for those kind words all things considered. ;-)
93L needs to turn on its right turn signal.
Quoting hurricanewatcher61:
93L needs to turn on its right turn signal.


I still say it has a vertical alignment problem of the most severe nature. Seems to be a circulation, or what is left of one around 9.2n and then another one back to the SE around 8.4N...
Good point, I would have to agree. It does need to take care of itself soon or it just might run aground.
Quoting StormJunkie:


I still say it has a vertical alignment problem of the most severe nature. Seems to be a circulation, or what is left of one around 9.2n and then another one back to the SE around 8.4N...
1070. Speeky
So this is Hurricane Georgette from 1986, and this is the furthest west any storm from the Eastern Pacific has gone.


So if Tropical Depression Genevieve made it all the way to Japan it would definitely be some kind of record.
1071. abcdeer
Quoting 1065. Speeky:



I am going to look up the furthest westward traveled Eastern Pacific Tropical cyclone.

I doubt that Tropical Depression Genevieve will make it all the way to Japan, after all it is more than 15 days away
Super Typhoon Loke Started out in the central pacific before recurving as it reached japan. Even caused damage in Alaska as a powerful extra tropical cyclone. loke set some crazy records.
1072. abcdeer
Quoting 1070. Speeky:

So this is Hurricane Georgette from 1986, and this is the furthest west any storm from the Eastern Pacific has gone.


So if Tropical Depression Genevieve made it all the way to Japan it would definitely be some kind of record.
I think you win but here is Loke
1074. Speeky
Quoting 1071. abcdeer:

Super Typhoon Loke Started out in the central pacific before recurving as it reached japan. Even caused damage in Alaska as a powerful extra tropical cyclone. loke set some crazy records.


I was thinking about Ioke but I think it formed in the Central Pacific basin. I was looking for a storm that was able to cross from the Eastern pacific Basin all the way to the Western Pacific Basin. But now i'm interested to know what's the furthest west any Central Pacific Hurricane has gone.

Thanks for the example though
1075. abcdeer
Quoting 1074. Speeky:



I was thinking about Ioke but I think it formed in the Central Pacific basin. I was looking for a storm that was able to cross from the Eastern pacific Basin all the way to the Western Pacific Basin. But now i'm interested to know what's the furthest west any Central Pacific Hurricane has gone.

Thanks for the example though
honestly.. I got excited before I read your whole comment and it wasn't till after I posted my comment that I realized what your question was. To make it better, I only saw your original post of the forecast runs till just now. For that I apologize and you're welcome.

If Genevieve(sp?) does play out like the gfs shows.. We will have a new winner. If I'm not mistaken the gfs were right about her coming back to life today.
1076. Speeky
This is Tropical Storm/Super Typhoon Oliwa of 1997. It formed in the Central Pacific and made it all the way to Japan. It caused $50,100,000 and killed 12. Also had a peak wind speed of 160 mph and lowest pressure of 915 mbar. Truly a storm of recognition.
93-L is moving to where the ITCZ goes from 10 Deg N to 7 deg N Latitude. Maybe this is where it will detach itself

and begin to live (or die) on its own.
1078. Speeky
Quoting 1075. abcdeer:

honestly.. I got excited before I read your whole comment and it wasn't till after I posted my comment that I realized what your question was. To make it better, I only saw your original post of the forecast runs till just now. For that I apologize and you're welcome.

If Genevieve(sp?) does play out like the gfs shows.. We will have a new winner. If I'm not mistaken the gfs were right about her coming back to life today.


Don't worry about it. You don't need to apologize, it was an easy mistake.

I would be very surprised if Genevieve made it all the way out to Japan. Even though, the GFS has been very accurate about this storm and most storms so far, I am always a little cautious even when it's 5 days out. We will see how the forecast changes in the coming days. The first step in seeing whether or not it will make it that far is if Tropical Depression Genevieve will become Tropical Storm Genevieve.
93L has week convection right now, but still have some (even over/near the COC) and look well organized (curved band ahead of the COC). I'm sure it'll get more convection today.
1080. barbamz
A good morning from wed Europe. Here some news, first are from Ittre, Belgium:





Ittre: "En dix minutes, un veritable torrent s'est forme" (photos et videos)
Redaction en ligne, Mis en ligne il y a 39 minutes (couldn't find news in English, yet).


Hundreds Evacuated, Three Dead in East Europe Floods
World | Associated Press | Updated: July 30, 2014 01:10 IST
Romania: Three people died and several hundreds were forced to evacuate as surging floodwaters submerged villages in Eastern Europe on Tuesday.
In Bulgaria, authorities said a 61-year-old woman died in the floods and another person was reported missing after torrential rains hit the region of Gabrovo in the central parts of the country.
Two people, including a 72-year-old man, also drowned in Romania as floods raged in different regions, said Interior Minister Gabriel Oprea. A passenger train derailed in the same area after a small bridge caved in due to flooding, but there were no immediate reports of injuries, the national railway said.
Seventy Bulgarian villages and parts of the city of Gabrovo were left without electricity and water supply was disrupted as the flooding destroyed some of the water and sewerage infrastructure. The rains also induced landslides and destroyed bridges, and many roads in the region were blocked by mud and debris. ...




Floods hit western Germany
Reuters Video, 12:15am EDT - 00:28
Summer storms bring flooding to parts of western Germany . Paul Chapman reports
This should be the height of summer in western Germany. Instead heavy storms have brought torrential rain and flooding. These were the scenes in the city of Bonn. Cellars of homes have been flooded out. Cars have been stranded, forcing their owners to abandon them in the streets as the water rises. Weather forecasters say some parts have had as much rain in a single day as they'd have expected for the whole month five times over.

A change to the jet stream
BBC weather video, 29 July 2014 Last updated at 12:13
The position of the jet stream is crucial in deciding what weather we'll see in the UK. For the past few weeks its position to the north of the country has ensured mainly dry and very warm conditions. However, as the jet stream moves slowly southwards this week we're likely to see a change to something more unsettled. BBC Weather's Darren Bett explains.


More details concerning the current forecast of severe weather in Europe (and in their archives of the last days): Estofex.org.

Elsewhere in the world:

'Dozens trapped' by Indian landslide
BBC, Breaking news,
30 July 2014 Last updated at 08:10 GMT
At least 40 houses have been buried and up to 150 people are feared trapped after a landslide hit a village in western India, officials say.
Teams of rescue workers are on their way to the village of Ambegaon of Pune district in Maharashtra state where the incident happened.
An official said residents had already begun clearing the debris to look for survivors.
Reports said that heavy rains had triggered the landslide.
1081. abcdeer
Quoting 1078. Speeky:



Don't worry about it. You don't need to apologize, it was an easy mistake.

I would be very surprised if Genevieve made it all the way out to Japan. Even though, the GFS has been very accurate about this storm and most storms so far, I am always a little cautious even when it's 5 days out. We will see how the forecast changes in the coming days. The first step in seeing whether or not it will make it that far is if Tropical Depression Genevieve will become Tropical Storm Genevieve.
WTPA42 PHFO 300830
TCDCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP072014
1100 PM HST TUE JUL 29 2014

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE IS MOVING STEADILY TOWARD THE WEST AT
ABOUT 6 KT. DEEP CONVECTION HAS WRAPPED AROUND ALL BUT EAST AND
NORTHEAST QUADRANTS...MAKING THE LLCC EASY TO FIND. CIMMS ANALYSIS
SHOWS THAT SHEAR REMAINS LOW...AROUND 8 KT...CORROBORATING THE
DECENT OUTFLOW SEEN IN SATELLITE LOOP THROUGH ALL BUT THE EAST
QUADRANT. CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS OF 2.0 FROM CPHC AND SAB
CORROBORATE WHAT SEEMS TO BE A SLOW CONSOLIDATION OF GENEVIEVE...AND
WE FEEL THIS SYSTEM WILL REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITHIN 12
HOURS.

THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWING BAMM AND BAMS GUIDANCE WHICH HAVE DONE THE BEST
JOB SO FAR WITH THE GENEVIEVE TRACK OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS
TRACK LIES ALONG THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE... ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DEPICT WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION OF A
WEAKENING SYSTEM...WHICH IS NOT CONSISTENT WITH THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST OF SLIGHT STRENGTHENING. THUS HAVE OPTED TO SIDE
MORE CLOSELY WITH THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...MOST OF WHICH
INDICATE SOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. GENEVIEVE MOTION TOWARD THE
WEST HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY SINCE THE LAST BULLETIN AND THIS IS
REFLECTED AT ALL TAU ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.

SHIPS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CAP GENEVIEVE STRENGTH AT ABOUT 40 KT
AFTER 36 HOURS IN SPITE OF A LACK OF DEBILITATING SHEAR AND LITTLE
OR NO DIFFERENCE IN SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. MIMIC-TPW AND
RECENT INFRARED IMAGERY SHOW NARROW SWATHS OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR
ENTRAINING AROUND THE SYSTEM. THIS ALONG WITH WARMER THAN CONDUCIVE
AIR ALOFT AS WELL AS LIMITED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT SEEM TO BE THE
LIMITING FACTORS FOR GENEVIEVE DEVELOPMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING BEYOND 48 HOURS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WITH GUIDANCE OTHER THAN SHIPS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 12.9N 149.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 13.0N 149.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 31/0600Z 13.1N 151.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 31/1800Z 13.2N 152.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 13.4N 153.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 13.8N 155.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 14.3N 158.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 04/0600Z 14.8N 161.3W 25 KT 30 MPH

$$
FORECASTER POWELL/JACOBSON



1082. Drakoen
Some needs to light the fire under 93L's...
Quoting 1082. Drakoen:

Some needs to light the fire under 93L's...


How about this guy?

1084. Speeky
Quoting 1081. abcdeer:

WTPA42 PHFO 300830
TCDCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP072014
1100 PM HST TUE JUL 29 2014

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE IS MOVING STEADILY TOWARD THE WEST AT
ABOUT 6 KT. DEEP CONVECTION HAS WRAPPED AROUND ALL BUT EAST AND
NORTHEAST QUADRANTS...MAKING THE LLCC EASY TO FIND. CIMMS ANALYSIS
SHOWS THAT SHEAR REMAINS LOW...AROUND 8 KT...CORROBORATING THE
DECENT OUTFLOW SEEN IN SATELLITE LOOP THROUGH ALL BUT THE EAST
QUADRANT. CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS OF 2.0 FROM CPHC AND SAB
CORROBORATE WHAT SEEMS TO BE A SLOW CONSOLIDATION OF GENEVIEVE...AND
WE FEEL THIS SYSTEM WILL REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITHIN 12
HOURS.

THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWING BAMM AND BAMS GUIDANCE WHICH HAVE DONE THE BEST
JOB SO FAR WITH THE GENEVIEVE TRACK OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS
TRACK LIES ALONG THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE... ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DEPICT WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION OF A
WEAKENING SYSTEM...WHICH IS NOT CONSISTENT WITH THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST OF SLIGHT STRENGTHENING. THUS HAVE OPTED TO SIDE
MORE CLOSELY WITH THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...MOST OF WHICH
INDICATE SOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. GENEVIEVE MOTION TOWARD THE
WEST HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY SINCE THE LAST BULLETIN AND THIS IS
REFLECTED AT ALL TAU ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.

SHIPS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CAP GENEVIEVE STRENGTH AT ABOUT 40 KT
AFTER 36 HOURS IN SPITE OF A LACK OF DEBILITATING SHEAR AND LITTLE
OR NO DIFFERENCE IN SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. MIMIC-TPW AND
RECENT INFRARED IMAGERY SHOW NARROW SWATHS OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR
ENTRAINING AROUND THE SYSTEM. THIS ALONG WITH WARMER THAN CONDUCIVE
AIR ALOFT AS WELL AS LIMITED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT SEEM TO BE THE
LIMITING FACTORS FOR GENEVIEVE DEVELOPMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING BEYOND 48 HOURS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WITH GUIDANCE OTHER THAN SHIPS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 12.9N 149.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 13.0N 149.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 31/0600Z 13.1N 151.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 31/1800Z 13.2N 152.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 13.4N 153.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 13.8N 155.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 14.3N 158.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 04/0600Z 14.8N 161.3W 25 KT 30 MPH

$$
FORECASTER POWELL/JACOBSON






Well now it looks like it wont make it past all of Hawaii...... But that's still 120 hours out. By 5 days out, forecasts are usually 50/50. Although these days the odds are bit better. But still it's a wait and see game, just like all weather.
1085. abcdeer
Quoting 1084. Speeky:



Well now it looks like it wont make it past all of Hawaii...... But that's still 120 hours out. By 5 days out, forecasts are usually 50/50. Although these days the odds are bit better. But still it's a wait and see game, just like all weather.
night speeky. Hopefully there will more to talk about later
1086. Speeky
Quoting 1085. abcdeer:

night speeky. Hopefully there will more to talk about later


Indeed, good night
Quoting 1082. Drakoen:

Some needs to light the fire under 93L's...


Or these guys

1088. WxLogic
Good Morning... well I guess no classification yet.

TXNT25 KNES 300608
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93L)

B. 30/0545Z

C. 9.4N

D. 42.8W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0/S0.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...LESS THAN 2/10 CURVED BANDING YIELDS A DT=0.0 WITH THE
MET AND PT IN AGREEMENT. FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS WHICH DO NO ALLOW
THE FT TO BE LOWERED AT NIGHT IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF DEVELOPMENT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MCCARTHY
Good morning.

I thought 93L was going to blossom in terms of convection in the overnight hours but no real improvement in the convective activity is associated with 93L.The circulation may start to weaken if the convection doesn't make a comeback. Bad news for the islands that are with a drought.
I am waiting for the new update at 8am maybe 60/60 %
Quoting 1089. Tropicsweatherpr:

Good morning.

I thought 93L was going to blossom in terms of convection in the overnight hours but no real improvement in the convective activity is associated with 93L.The circulation may start to weaken if the convection doesn't make a comeback. Bad news for the islands that are with a drought.
you know how it goes .... what is forcasted to happen usually doesnt
Quoting 1087. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Or these guys


1 door closes and another door opens
Quoting hurricanes2018:
I am waiting for the new update at 8am maybe 60/60 %
Quoting hurricanes2018:
I am waiting for the new update at 8am maybe 60/60 %


Are we still talking about that trash remnant? It deserves no more than 10/20 for its lame performance.
Quoting StormJunkie:


Are we still talking about that trash remnant? It deserves no more than 10/20 for its lame performance.


This basin is lame period. Joke
So much for D-Max.
The headline in the main Puerto Rico newspaper is PR prepares for rationing of water. We had been waiting to see if 93L would terminate the drought but it looks like is not a sure thing right now.

Quoting 1070. Speeky:

So this is Hurricane Georgette from 1986, and this is the furthest west any storm from the Eastern Pacific has gone.


So if Tropical Depression Genevieve made it all the way to Japan it would definitely be some kind of record.
John?

Hurricane John, also known as Typhoon John, formed during the 1994 Pacific hurricane season and became both the longest-lasting and the farthest-traveling tropical cyclone ever observed. John formed during the strong El Niño of 1991 to 1994 and peaked as a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale, the highest categorization for hurricanes.

Over the course of its existence, it followed a 7,165-mile (13,280 km) path from the eastern Pacific to the western Pacific and back to the central Pacific, lasting 31 days in total.[1] Because it existed in both the eastern and western Pacific, John was one of a small number of tropical cyclones to be designated as both a hurricane and a typhoon.


Becoming less symmetrical on the CIMSS TPW product.


I'm starting to think odds are slipping below 50% of TC development.
Quoting 1057. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Could it be as simple as cooler water and drier/stable air?
Yea what Storm!

so far so good for the models. were not able to initialize the system in the first place, yet yhey had it trcking all over the place. They need to model themselves. after such a fiasco. maybe the sampling was flawed in the first place. maybe too much reliance on the GFS.







junkie needs its fix got spoiled in 95 sorry those yrs are done. typical junkie thinks the world owes em something
93L...

Quoting 1096. Tropicsweatherpr:

The headline in the main Puerto Rico newspaper is PR prepares for rationing of water. We had been waiting to see if 93L would terminate the drought but it looks like is not a sure thing right now.




Crazy world when Puerto Rico becomes like Texas and the Puertorriqueños actually look forward to TCs for rain.
Quoting 1102. GeoffreyWPB:

93L...


The Curse of the Central ATL ... kinda like Montezuma's Revenge for storms....

lets say goodbye to invest 93L
ITS going down to 60% at 8am
Gulf is very pink 30-32C but the rest is just only 27 or 28C
Quoting 1107. hurricanes2018:

ITS going down to 60% at 8am


Generous.


The circulation is underneath that recent convective burst and it's entering some very low shear now.



Waters are currently 27-28C:



I don't think it's dead yet. It'll be interesting to see how it does once the whole system enters low shear of 10kts and below later today.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The headline in the main Puerto Rico newspaper is PR prepares for rationing of water. We had been waiting to see if 93L would terminate the drought but it looks like is not a sure thing right now.



I was so looking forward to a little rain. Now I'm going to have to hang laundry, wash my car and try to organize a beach trip in order to bring on rain!! Geez, this is getting ridiculous!

How is everyone today?

Lindy
1112. ackee
The NHC was caught by suprise with TD#2 and so try not to make the same mistake with 93L by uping the odds of devolpment despite all model support for this it seem like mother nature will for ever do what she wants to do


the water temp is 77F over invest 93L right now its still july if this was late august the water will be warmer!
Way to go, GFS. Lol:

Quoting 1112. ackee:

The NHC was caught by suprise with TD#2 and so try not to make the same mistake with 93L by uping the odds of devolpment despite all model support for this it seem like mother nature will for ever do what she wants to do


You also shouldn't let your guard down because we've seen time and time again storms regenerate quite quickly.

Especially after last year when people were like "Dorian is dead, it isn't going to regenerate", the same said for Gabrielle. Or the battles of Dmin and Dmax that Chantal had. One minute she was nothing more than a whisp of cloud, the next she had blown right back up again.

Whatever happens with 93L, I hope that it can at least bring some needed rain to the islands.
odds are going down at 8am..
1117. SLU
The center is moving faster again just like it did night before. It's closing in on 45W and it is still moving along 9.5N....

805 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 10N43W MOVING W-NW AT 15 KT. THE
LOW LIES WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS AND CONTINUES TO SHOW AN
IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE PRESENTATION...HOWEVER LACKS ANY ORGANIZED
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 43W-47W. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N25W TO 17N26W MOVING W AT 15 KT. A
BROAD LOW-LEVEL...850 MB-700 MB...CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOTED
IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AND ACROSS AN AREA TO THE WEST OF
THE WAVE AXIS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. THIS AREA ALSO COINCIDES
WITH A BROAD AREA OF 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY FROM 08N-11N
BETWEEN 20W-29W. IN ADDITION...A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED AT THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE WHICH REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MONSOON TROUGH. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED DUE TO THE SAHARAN
AIR LAYER COVERING MUCH OF THE TROPICAL ATLC...HOWEVER ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 23W-27W.

we have two lows now!
1119. SLU
impressive

805 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 10N43W MOVING W-NW AT 15 KT. THE
LOW LIES WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS AND CONTINUES TO SHOW AN
IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE PRESENTATION...HOWEVER LACKS ANY ORGANIZED
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 43W-47W. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N25W TO 17N26W MOVING W AT 15 KT. A
BROAD LOW-LEVEL...850 MB-700 MB...CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOTED
IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AND ACROSS AN AREA TO THE WEST OF
THE WAVE AXIS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. THIS AREA ALSO COINCIDES
WITH A BROAD AREA OF 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY FROM 08N-11N
BETWEEN 20W-29W. IN ADDITION...A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED AT THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE WHICH REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MONSOON TROUGH. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED DUE TO THE SAHARAN
AIR LAYER COVERING MUCH OF THE TROPICAL ATLC...HOWEVER ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 23W-27W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N48W TO 19N51W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS TO THE W-NW OF A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW
CENTERED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N43W. SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND GLOBAL MODEL DATA INDICATE THE WAVE IS WITHIN A 700 MB
TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED WEST OF THE LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MONSOON TROUGH. THE WAVE REMAINS WITHIN THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER
AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 18N16W TO
14N19W TO 1012 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N25W TO 09N29W TO 11N39W TO A
1012 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N43W TO 07N47W. THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENGE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N47W TO 06N54W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 11W-
15W...AND FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 29W-34W.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 1150 miles east of the southern Windward Islands
remain limited. This system continues to show signs of
organization, however, and the low could develop into a tropical
depression later today or tomorrow while it moves generally
west-northwestward near 15 mph. Interests in the Lesser Antilles
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
1122. SLU
70/70


we have two lows to watch only thing we need warm water
People really need to stop calling it over just because of a day or two of unfavorable systems, honestly, this system isn't really expected to develop until it starts to get near the lessers.
Quoting 1119. SLU:

impressive




very impressive is right but needs rain in the center
My oh my but there's a lot of hand-wringing going on this morning about 93L. The thing is, though, the system is behaving exactly as forecasters said it would. Of course, by "forecasters", I mean the experts at the NHC, not those who look at certain runs of a few favorite models, brush on a thick coat of wishful thinking, and make grand pronouncements about how 93L is clearly already a TD headed to America, only the NHC is too conservative/stupid/scared to admit it. ;-)

A few things:

1) 93L is FAR from dead.

2) The 2014 hurricane season has barely gotten underway. Give it time.

3) If you want to stay sane, learn the often vast difference between a) raw model output, and b) a combination of education, knowledge, and experience. Computer models are like police sketches: they represent one particular guess, and they're often very close to reality--but not always.
1127. pottery
Quoting Neapolitan:
My oh my but there's a lot of hand-wringing going on this morning about 93L. The thing is, though, the system is behaving exactly as forecasters said it would. Of course, by "forecasters", I mean the experts at the NHC, not those who look at certain runs of a few favorite models, toss on a thick coat of wishful thinking, and make grand pronouncements about how 93L is clearly already a TD headed to America, only the NHC is too conservative/stupid/scared to admit it. ;-)

A few things:

1) 93L is FAR from dead.

2) The 2014 hurricane season has barely gotten underway. Give it time.

3) If you want to stay sane, learn the often vast difference between raw model output, and a combination of education, knowledge, and experience. Computer models are like police sketches: they represent one particular guess, and they're often very close to reality--but not always.

I hate Reality in the morning before I've had my coffee…..
1128. SLU
Quoting 1117. SLU:

The center is moving faster again just like it did night before. It's closing in on 45W and it is still moving along 9.5N....




Two things to note:

1. This system has remained much weaker than most of the models especially the GFS
2. 93L seems to have evolved into a much smaller system than we saw 2 days ago

Both of these factors I believe will influence how the system will track in the next day or so. It is less likely to "feel" the weakness in the ridge induced by the ULL that's forming near 30N 45W. In other words, a more westward track is likely. I've not changed my forecast for this system for the last couple of days in spite of the persistence of the models and guess who's winning so far :D.
New TWO no change
TD maybe today or tomorrow
Invest 93l is not dead, in fact, there is a new burst of convection on visible satellite near or to the west of the center. Hopefully it will continue to expand this morning.
Quoting 1111. VirginIslandsVisitor:



I was so looking forward to a little rain. Now I'm going to have to hang laundry, wash my car and try to organize a beach trip in order to bring on rain!! Geez, this is getting ridiculous!

How is everyone today?

Lindy

Well, I'm going to do a little painting, so that should bring some showers. Seriously, the drought in P.R. is getting really bad and I don't think rationing will help too much. We need a heavy rain event of two or three days from 93L.
Quoting 1099. bigwes6844:

Yea what Storm!




LOL! Debo!!

Link
Quoting 1124. dfwstormwatch:

People really need to stop calling it over just because of a day or two of unfavorable systems, honestly, this system isn't really expected to develop until it starts to get near the lessers.



Did you not see the wind shear map or some in 93L has less then 24-hours it has 30 two 40kt of wind shear waiting for it if we dont get a TD today then its over for 93L has by time it get two near the lesser it will be torn up by shear so today is the last day for 93L to become a TD
1134. tkdaime
93l can grow in size when it gets in warmerer waters its in no hurry
1135. FOREX
Quoting 1106. hurricanes2018:


lets say goodbye to invest 93L


goodbye.


I guess this is an improvement from last night..
But anyways, good morning!
Quoting 1131. palmasdelrio:


Well, I'm going to do a little painting, so that should bring some showers. Seriously, the drought in P.R. is getting really bad and I don't think rationing will help too much. We need a heavy rain event of two or three days from 93L.


I forgot the painting, trying to mow the dried out hay (grass/weeds), pouring cement (like I'd do that anyway ;-) and doing the almighty rain dance!

Must get to work. Have a great day everyone!

Lindy

1138. tkdaime
Its just starting for 93l give it time
30 two 40kt of shear is waiting for 93L it has less then 24-hours then its over for 93L

Quoting 1138. tkdaime:
Its just starting for 93l give it time


93L is still evolving like an adolescent. In time she will be a young lady (Bertha)- hopefully she will remain lean and not so power-hungry.
Quoting 1128. SLU:



Two things to note:

1. This system has remained much weaker than most of the models especially the GFS
2. 93L seems to have evolved into a much smaller system than we saw 2 days ago

Both of these factors I believe will influence how the system will track in the next day or so. It is less likely to "feel" the weakness in the ridge induced by the ULL that's forming near 30N 45W. In other words, a more westward track is likely. I've not changed my forecast for this system for the last couple of days in spite of the persistence of the models and guess who's winning so far :D.

You and me so far mate
The models in the past runs had this thing at 45W and 11N or 12N moving WNW well so much for that
I did say the models would be garbage with out that recon data


Hmmmmmm.....
Quoting 1139. Tazmanian:

30 two 40kt of shear is waiting for 93L it has less then 24-hours then its over for 93L



24Hours?
Looks more like a TD to me then TD 2
Quoting 1137. VirginIslandsVisitor:



I forgot the painting, trying to mow the dried out hay (grass/weeds), pouring cement (like I'd do that anyway ;-) and doing the almighty rain dance!

Must get to work. Have a great day everyone!

Lindy




Yeah, but it's amazing how spatially variable rain in the tropics is. Here in Rincón (W PR) we've had almost 14" (13.74") since mid-June...
Quoting 1129. wunderkidcayman:
New TWO no change
TD maybe today or tomorrow


So far you have been on it.

This thing is not dead, although if no improvement in next 24 hours, I will also start doubting it will survive and even bring needed rains to PR.

Been fun so far and it is only July 30th.




nice looking low!
1149. SLU
Quoting 1141. wunderkidcayman:


You and me so far mate
The models in the past runs had this thing at 45W and 11N or 12N moving WNW well so much for that
I did say the models would be garbage with out that recon data


LOL. From the 18z July 28th model run, the LBAR is the only one that's got 93L's track right.\



Quoting 1139. Tazmanian:
30 two 40kt of shear is waiting for 93L it has less then 24-hours then its over for 93L

It will take longer than 24 hrs to get there and the sheer could be lower by then.
Looking at the most recent microwave pass from a little less than an hour ago shows that 93L needs to do some more work before becoming TD3 and a lot more work to become a TS
GEOS-5 has gone a little farther north with 93L the last 2 runs. Hispaniola still tears it up..



But now it has the sheared remains going north into the Bahamas & then picked up by a trough..

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED //
REF/A/FLEWEACEN NORFOLK VA/290722Z JUL 14//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTNT21 KNGU 290700)//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.5N 41.3W TO 9.5N 47.3W WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING INTENSIFICATION
OF A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, APPROXIMATELY
1000NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30KTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
300000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.5N
41.3W.
2. REMARKS:THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
INVEST 93L IS CURRENTLY MOVING WEST AT 13KTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE HAS MAINTAINED ITS DEFINITION OVER
THE LAST 24 HOURS, BUT DOES NOT HAVE DEEP CONVECTION.
SCATTEROMETRY PASSES INDICATE CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH WIND SPEEDS
OF 25 TO 30KTS. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE FOR
INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF
80 TO 84 DEGREES WILL FURTHER AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
TROPICAL FEATURE. SHEAR GREATER THAN 20KTS TO THE SOUTH AND DRY
AIR TO THE NORTH IS SHORTENING THE WINDOW FOR DEVELOPMENT.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 310700Z.
93L is being mentioned by the NWS in Melbourne. Very interesting read here this morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
435 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

EXTENDED...
PATTERN LOOKS ABOUT PAR FOR CENTRAL FL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
ATLC RIDGE AXIS REMAINS THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE. BOTH GFS/ECMWF
MODELS MAINTAIN A SHORT WAVE TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS...BUT A DEEP
LYR CYCLONE OVER THE PAC NW WILL INTERCEPT MUCH OF THE NRN STREAM
JET ENERGY THRU THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PREVENT THE TROF FROM GAINING
THE STRENGTH NECESSARY TO SUPPRESS THE RIDGE AXIS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. BY MON...MODELS HINT THAT A WEAK ERLY
WAVE OVER THE TROPICS WILL HAVE WORKED FAR ENOUGH WEST TO IMPACT THE
LCL WX...EVEN IF INDIRECTLY
. SCT AFTN/EVNG TSRAS WILL BE THE RULE
WITH TEMPS NEAR AVG.
Starting to remind me of TD 2
Halong on Guam radar. Click pic to go to the radar..

Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Looks more like a TD to me then TD 2


To me, it meets the definition of a T.D. If it had stronger/more convection, it would most likely be a Tropical Storm.
But without data confirmation (recon or ship data) its guess work.
Even yesterday, the "experts" (tropical specialist) were on the fence leaning towards it being a Tropical Depression.
But the NHC makes the ultimate decision on upgrading the system.

As the system gets close to the Islands, the NHC will be under more pressure to upgrade the system in case it were to quickly intensify or be stronger than expected.
HWRF not much with it for the next 30hrs but look at it in 50hrs


Same with the GFS
Picked up 1.76" yesterday in Longwood bringing my July total to just over 11" for the month. Average is 7.36".
Models still taking this NE of the Caribbean is wrong at this point it could be a Caribbean runner. Forecast looks busted. Can't underestimate the Euro.
Link

Wind shear fcst
Quoting weatherlover94:
Starting to remind me of TD 2


Don't say that. TD2 was at its strongest when it was still an invest before being upgraded to a T.D..


Yeah totally a TD.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Picked up 1.76" yesterday in Longwood bringing my July total to just over 11" for the month. Average is 7.36".


Only 5.54" here at my house.
But not far down the road they've had around 20".
My neighborhood and surrounding area is one of the driest locations in Lee County. Storms form all around us (we get the thunder and lightning) but we only get a few sprinkles.
there is a ocean current that runs south to north just east of the leewards and windwards. it will help 93 move north
Link


500mb vorticity
Quoting 1128. SLU:



Two things to note:

1. This system has remained much weaker than most of the models especially the GFS
2. 93L seems to have evolved into a much smaller system than we saw 2 days ago

Both of these factors I believe will influence how the system will track in the next day or so. It is less likely to "feel" the weakness in the ridge induced by the ULL that's forming near 30N 45W. In other words, a more westward track is likely. I've not changed my forecast for this system for the last couple of days in spite of the persistence of the models and guess who's winning so far :D.

Good way to view it. Good to see you stick to what you see happening so far. It is not about winning anyways it is about having confidence to go with what you see in data and observations.
Invest 92L - this is when the system (to be named TD2) was at its strongest. Once the system was upgraded to a T.D., it slowly started weakening.
It had strong convection wrapping around a LLC at this point.

Quoting 1158. hurricanes2018:


Only July 30th. Look out if conditions become even marginally favorable in Aug and Sep.

Then there's always a very good chance for some "homegrown" action.

I think we will be "tired" by October. I believe 2014 will provide lots of ups and downs and uncertainty.

Quoting 1162. canehater1:
Link

Wind shear fcst


Thanks.
Can someone please give me the best of 93L.
New RECON plan
3 flights


000
NOUS42 KNHC 291446
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT TUE 29 JULY 2014
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 30/1100Z TO 31/1100Z JULY 2014
TCPOD NUMBER.....14-059

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. INVEST NEAR 12.0N 52.0W AT 31/1730Z.
B. A G-IV MISSION FOR 01/0000Z.
C. A P-3 AXBT MISSION DEPARTING TISX 31/1400Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

$$
WJM



Quoting canehater1:
Link

Wind shear fcst
no wind shear whatsoever.
Quoting 1174. HurricaneAndre:

Can someone please give me the best of 93L.

What you mean like BEST track data
New one will be out shortly
Record Low Temps along the Gulf Coast!

For the 3rd time during the summer 2014, we have RECORD LOW temperatures in the SE USA. Mobile, AL was 66 degrees this morning .... BRRRRRR!

Although 93L still seems to be struggling with dry air and shear this morning, it will be interesting what the models say ... once the system tries to get more organization with the thunderstorms near its center.....

If it survives the dry air and hostile conditions... will it eventually become a fish storm, or will it linger behind all the troughs, and not get picked up. At the least, hope the islands suffering from the drought, get some much needed rain from this system!
Quoting 1175. wunderkidcayman:

New RECON plan
3 flights


000
NOUS42 KNHC 291446
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT TUE 29 JULY 2014
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 30/1100Z TO 31/1100Z JULY 2014
TCPOD NUMBER.....14-059

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. INVEST NEAR 12.0N 52.0W AT 31/1730Z.
B. A G-IV MISSION FOR 01/0000Z.
C. A P-3 AXBT MISSION DEPARTING TISX 31/1400Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

$$
WJM






It's interesting where recon plan put 93L
12N 52W
Let's see if 93L will make it to that position tomorrow
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

What you mean like BEST track data
New one will be out shortly
thanks.
Quoting 1166. islander101010:

there is a ocean current that runs south to north just east of the leewards and windwards. it will help 93 move north
Ocean current .... is that wind? or water, like the Gulf stream? :)
1182. scott39
This is my 6th season(2009-2014) tracking tropical cyclones on Weather Underground. Giving my self a novice ranking in developing and tracking of a TC would be a stretch. Although I could give a class on wind shear and dry air. It looks like the trend for the Atlantic, is either quiet, or multiple tropical cyclones that are a skeleton compared to the great ones from 1992-2008. 
Good Morning.  I will only add what we have been seeing for the last few days.  TD2 needs some time to build up convection and the dry air is interfering with that process.  It's a viable low-level circulation but sinking dry air from the higher elevations sinking down into the circulation makes it hard for t-storms to fire up.  Secondly, conditions might be more favorable if it can gain some latitude get into the Lesser Antilles but it continues to be embedded in the ITCZ.  Finally, forget all of the current models.  It is too early to know when it can finally "get going"; the further West it remains embedded in the ITTZ, the longer it will take to get a handle on what "might" happen 5 days from now.........................Patience.  
Quoting 1111. VirginIslandsVisitor:



I was so looking forward to a little rain. Now I'm going to have to hang laundry, wash my car and try to organize a beach trip in order to bring on rain!! Geez, this is getting ridiculous!

How is everyone today?

Lindy
I still think you are going to get your rain... however, it may still be in your best interests to do at least two of these three things, just to ensure the storm passes OVER you and not just north or south.... lol ...
8AM

1186. SLU
Quoting 1169. sporteguy03:


Good way to view it. Good to see you stick to what you see happening so far. It is not about winning anyways it is about having confidence to go with what you see in data and observations.


Indeed!
1187. JRRP
Quoting BahaHurican:
I still think you are going to get your rain... however, it may still be in your best interests to do at least two of these three things, just to ensure the storm passes OVER you and not just north or south.... lol ...


My method is to leave my car windows open. Works like a charm.
Quoting 1135. FOREX:



goodbye.
[singing] "You say goodbye, and I say hello... hello, hello? I don't know why you say goodbye - I say hello!"

lol
Quoting 1180. HurricaneAndre:

thanks.

Wow lol even further S for 12Z
9.3N 44.7W
30kts
1012mb
SLU very good reasoning. I was of the same opinion. I have made mentioned of the same observation, you have made in many post.
Your classic Cape Verde storms ultimately break-off from the ITCZ and gain latitude on their trajectory into the Islands around the A-B high; this one is not even close yet. If it does not develop for some reason, it's going to continue West in the ITCZ on the way to Trinidad and Tobago............................. :)
When I think of the Climb to the NW, I think of this guy going up the mountain. Link
Quoting 1141. wunderkidcayman:


You and me so far mate
The models in the past runs had this thing at 45W and 11N or 12N moving WNW well so much for that
I did say the models would be garbage with out that recon data


Can you tell me what specific data from Recon will improve the models?
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Your classic Cape Verde storms ultimately break-off from the ITCZ and gain latitude on their trajectory into the Islands around the A-B high; this one is not even close yet. If it does not develop for some reason, it's going to continue West in the ITCZ on the way to Trinidad and Tobago............................. :)


Interesting point. What is the physics behind developed systems moving north and undeveloped systems continuing with the flow?
12Z runs still look like garbage no matter tomorrow is recon day with 3 flights going out
Once that data is put into the models I'll start to believe it more


modeles everywhere with them storm
Surprise leader in the model track error at this time:


Quoting 1145. UPRM1CIMA:

Yeah, but it's amazing how spatially variable rain in the tropics is. Here in Rincón (W PR) we've had almost 14" (13.74") since mid-June...
All the drought maps show the SE half of the island in the brown colours... some kind of rainshadow effect from the mountains, maybe?

Quoting 1149. SLU:



LOL. From the 18z July 28th model run, the LBAR is the only one that's got 93L's track right.\

img style="max-width: 501px; width: 500px;" src="http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/p lots/northatlantic/2014/al932014/track_early/aal93 _2014072818_track_early.png">

img style="max-width: 501px; width: 500px;" src="http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/p lots/northatlantic/2014/al932014/track_early/aal93 _2014073006_track_early.png">
Which is pretty freaking crazy.... LBAR is always the one showing where the storm is NOT going to go... lol....

Quoting 1188. JustDucky251:



My method is to leave my car windows open. Works like a charm.
Ayup... works for me, too... lol
Quoting 1164. JrWeathermanFL:



Yeah totally a TD.

I guess a saw a few new t.storms next to the center
1201. SLU
Quoting 1196. wunderkidcayman:

12Z runs still look like garbage no matter tomorrow is recon day with 3 flights going out
Once that data is put into the models I'll start to believe it more


At 1200 UTC, 30 July 2014, LOW INVEST (AL93) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 9.3°N and 44.7°W. The current intensity was 30 kt and the center was moving at 15 kt at a bearing of 265 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1012 mb.

hmmmm
9.3N 44.7W
30kts
1012mb the center littie more south on this update on invest 93L
Quoting 1179. wunderkidcayman:



It's interesting where recon plan put 93L
12N 52W
Let's see if 93L will make it to that position tomorrow

Better start climbing :)
Quoting 1195. JustDucky251:



Interesting point. What is the physics behind developed systems moving north and undeveloped systems continuing with the flow?


Not a physics issue per see but more of a theromodynamics issue . These African waves, which are the seed for Cape Verde hurricanes, travel from Africa cross the Atlantic "inside" the ITCZ which circles the globe (including the Pacific) just North of the equator. During the Atlantic hurricane season, and the peak, the ITCZ rises north closer to the 10N line. African waves that develop into storms, develop "spin" (Coreolis effect), rise up from the 10N mark, start to "circle" around the Bermuda High on their trajectory towards the Caribbean or the United States.

Waves that do no develop, or very weak tropical storms, do gain enough "height" into the atmosphere to feel the effects of upper level steering influences, and generally keep moving West in the ITCZ or the Westerlies that take them into the Caribbean. That's the best that I can do off the top of my head. The bottom line is that waves or weak systems trend more to the West until tropical storm development occurs.
Quoting 1195. JustDucky251:



Interesting point. What is the physics behind developed systems moving north and undeveloped systems continuing with the flow?
Mainly Coriolis effect ...

Good morning! I see 93L has made it through the night and looks a little better.
Quoting 1152. Skyepony:

GEOS-5 has gone a little farther north with 93L the last 2 runs. Hispaniola still tears it up..



But now it has the sheared remains going north into the Bahamas & then picked up by a trough..



What's that in the Gulf. Homegrown mischief??
Quoting 1145. UPRM1CIMA:

Yeah, but it's amazing how spatially variable rain in the tropics is. Here in Rincón (W PR) we've had almost 14" (13.74") since mid-June...
All the drought maps show the SE half of the island in the brown colours... some kind of rainshadow effect from the mountains, maybe?

Quoting 1149. SLU:



LOL. From the 18z July 28th model run, the LBAR is the only one that's got 93L's track right.\

img style="max-width: 501px; width: 500px;" src="http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/p lots/northatlantic/2014/al932014/track_early/aal93 _2014072818_track_early.png">

img style="max-width: 501px; width: 500px;" src="http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/p lots/northatlantic/2014/al932014/track_early/aal93 _2014073006_track_early.png">
Which is pretty freaking crazy.... LBAR is always the one showing where the storm is NOT going to go... lol....

Quoting 1188. JustDucky251:

My method is to leave my car windows open. Works like a charm.
Ayup... works for me, too... lol
Goodmorning everyone I see there hasn't been much change with 93L structure remains good, convection not so much. It still continuing to move on a westward path, as the satellite switches over to daytime notice the TW catching up to the LLC and at 48-52W and 7-8N notice the outflow boundary, is that from a seabreeze?

1210. SLU
No question that there's going to be a southward adjustment of the models today based on the extrapolated motion of 93L and the further south location of the center.

I think NHC will wait till tomorrow if convection can increase tonight and tomorrow NHC may just wait to upgrade it to TD when recon flies providing recon finds a closed low level circulation with the 35mph wind or maybe even more
Traffic picked up, we have systems to watch but nothing to eat. Where is Aslyn?
Quoting 1209. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Goodmorning everyone I see there hasn't been much change with 93L structure remains good, convection not so much. It still continuing to move on a westward path, as the satellite switches over to daytime notice the TW catching up to the LLC and at 48-52W and 7-8N notice the outflow boundary, is that from a seabreeze?



A seabreeze can only occur with ocean and land interaction, so no. That band of clouds you see around 7-8 N looks like outflow from storms.
1214. MahFL
93L has got a lot smaller too.
good morning all
Quoting 1160. StormTrackerScott:

Picked up 1.76" yesterday in Longwood bringing my July total to just over 11" for the month. Average is 7.36".
Glad you're back! I hear the residents of NOLA are still dealing with the impacts of StormTrackerScott!
Quoting 1213. Chucktown:



A seabreeze can only occur with ocean and land interaction, so no. That band of clouds you see around 7-8 N looks like outflow from storms.
Thanks! Interesting, The outflow may help to fire off some more storms for 93L. There is also that cluster of storms that have moved out in front of it will help to clear the way.
Quoting 1210. SLU:

No question that there's going to be a southward adjustment of the models today based on the extrapolated motion of 93L and the further south location of the center.



Agreed but I think we may not get that change till tomorrow it would be better if it was today

Look at it for something to go on that kind of a WNW track it would have to be a quickly intensifying storm

Quoting 1209. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Goodmorning everyone I see there hasn't been much change with 93L structure remains good, convection not so much. It still continuing to move on a westward path, as the satellite switches over to daytime notice the TW catching up to the LLC and at 48-52W and 7-8N notice the outflow boundary, is that from a seabreeze?




Is that the center rising up from underneath the newest convective burst..
Quoting 1211. wunderkidcayman:

I think NHC will wait till tomorrow if convection can increase tonight and tomorrow NHC may just wait to upgrade it to TD when recon flies providing recon finds a closed low level circulation with the 35mph wind or maybe even more


Just can't see recon flying in to a trash cloud formation. And wouldn't 35mph warrant a TS, not a TD? All a TD really needs is a closed surface low...Which I really do not think we will have...If it even exists right now. 93L has come completely unglued at the seams.
Quoting 1219. JrWeathermanFL:



Is that the center rising up from underneath the newest convective burst..

I doubt it at the moment but as more sat images come in we should be able to find out
Quoting 1219. JrWeathermanFL:



Is that the center rising up from underneath the newest convective burst..


Convective burst? Are we looking at the same system?

I don't see much strengthen, not with all that dry air out ahead of it.

Thanks WW and BH 1204 and 1205.

It seems like 10 degrees north is the critical distance from the equator to start the spin. I dont remeber a slow spinning system near Canada. Up there they seem to zip back across the Atlantic and usually shred. Yes, they are extratropical by then but is the speed and dissipation due to pressure and wind alone or is the thickness of the atmosphere and/or lattitude a big factor?
Come to think of it, I have seen extratropical systems rotating around Antarctica and persisting but I haven't payed attention to their relative speed/spin.

Quoting 1219. JrWeathermanFL:



Is that the center rising up from underneath the newest convective burst..
That's where the greatest vorticity seems to be.

Quoting 1219. JrWeathermanFL:



Is that the center rising up from underneath the newest convective burst..
Quoting 1221. wunderkidcayman:


I doubt it at the moment but as more sat images come in we should be able to find out


You know what looking at it again with newer images it might be but it's not rising it's just moving W
Quoting StormJunkie:


Just can't see recon flying in to a trash cloud formation. And wouldn't 35mph warrant a TS, not a TD? All a TD really needs is a closed surface low...Which I really do not think we will have...If it even exists right now. 93L has come completely unglued at the seams.


34 knots (39 MPH) to 64 knots for a T.S..
1228. GatorWX
Quoting 1166. islander101010:

there is a ocean current that runs south to north just east of the leewards and windwards. it will help 93 move north


?
Quoting 1212. biff4ugo:

Traffic picked up, we have systems to watch but nothing to eat. Where is Aslyn?
Likely on vaycay....

Quoting 1220. StormJunkie:



Just can't see recon flying in to a trash cloud formation. And wouldn't 35mph warrant a TS, not a TD? All a TD really needs is a closed surface low...Which I really do not think we will have...If it even exists right now. 93L has come completely unglued at the seams.
Not flying til tomorrow anyway.... if it's going to do anything, this is pretty much the last window of opportunity. They can always cancel tomorrow tomorrow...
1230. beell
Quoting 1218. wunderkidcayman:


Agreed but I think we may not get that change till tomorrow it would be better if it was today

Look at it for something to go on that kind of a WNW track it would have to be a quickly intensifying storm




Or the low-level steering ridge lifting to the north a bit in response to troughing centered over the Great Lakes-banging on the ridge. Tomorrow more than today. But nothing dramatic imo.
You can come to your own conclusions:

National Weather Service Wilmington NC 730 am EDT Wednesday Jul 30 2014

Synopsis... dry and cool weather will continue through into late week as Canadian high pressure settles across the area. A coastal front will lift back north across the area Friday and into the weekend...bringing good rain chances into early next week. && Near term /through tonight/... as of 610 am Wednesday...the unusual amplified upper longwave trough to remain in place this period...basically affecting the U.S. East of the Mississippi River. The north-S oriented upper trough axis is prognosticated to remain just west of the forecast area.

Overall...the ilm County Warning Area will continue to experience below normal temperatures and comfortable rhs. For this time of the year to have comfortable rhs is difficult to come by...but to have potentially up to 3 to 4 days in a row...is a gift. Will basically use persistence for the near term forecast. Channeled weak vorticity traveling within the upper trough...as seen with 7h and 500 mb forecasts...will push across the forecast area. This forcing and enough moisture existing below the subsidence level will result in cumulus/ac/SC clouds at almost any time across the forecast area. Majority of it will be scattered in coverage. The forcing from the resultant wind boundary will be enough for additional clouds to develop... producing intervals of partly and mostly cloudy skies. Will remain on the fence as far as placing isolated showers in the forecast. The forcing from the resultant wind boundary and limited juice ie. Cape...will be available. For now...probability of precipitation will be advertised just under 15 percent. Temperatures have been a headache the past several days ..mainly the maximum temperatures. However...will go along with persistence ..and thus staying closer to the GFS MOS guidance...Which has been performing well of late. &&

Short term /Thursday through Friday night/... as of 300 am Wednesday...cool weather will continue for the short term thanks to a closed low pressure near the Hudson Bay maintaining an anomalously strong middle-level trough across the east. This feature will very gradually weaken and lift to the northeast by the weekend...and thus subtle thickness increases will occur...but at the same time this will allow winds to back more to the S/SW off the surface...increasing column moisture. Precipitable waters Thursday around 1.75 inches are right around seasonable values for the beginning of August...and scattered showers/thunderstorms will be possible Thursday. Friday is expected to be the wetter day however...as coastal trough/warm front begin to lift back towards the coast...likely moving onshore late Friday. Precipitable waters rise to around 2 inches...which will combine with surface convergence along the boundary...and continued upper diffluence within the jet-streak embedded downwind of the large scale trough...to create a good chance for showers and storms. There will be some diurnal enhancement/nocturnal decrease of the convection Friday...but do expect showers to continue throughout Friday night. Temperatures will remain below normal for the date...with middle 80s expected Thursday...although a few spots in the Pee Dee region of SC may approach 90. Although thicknesses rise Friday...clouds and precipitation will limit warming...and thus highs will be a degree or two cooler than Thursday. Mins both nights will fall into the upper 60s inland...around 70 at the coast. &&

Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/... as of 300 am Wednesday...a wet period expected the first half of the long term...making the first weekend of August cool and unsettled. Large upper trough which has been plaguing the eastern Continental U.S. For some time will finally...slowly...begin to erode thanks to the weakening of the parent vortex...and the amplification of the ridge across the Atlantic Ocean. While this ridge will eventually overcome the persistent trough across the east...it will likely take until Tuesday for any noticeable warming/drying to occur locally...and temperatures will remain below normal through the period. The reason for this is because as the trough begins recede to the west...a coastal trough/warm front will stall near the area during the weekend. This provides strong low-level moist advection...while middle-level moist advection occurs on increasing S/SW flow downwind of the trough axis. This produces precipitable waters over two inches...which combine with surface convergence and upper diffluence within the jet streak around the base of the trough to create scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms Saturday...Sunday...and even into Monday. Finally by Tuesday the surface trough washes out...ridging takes hold aloft...and more seasonable weather develops for the middle of next week.
Quoting 1225. GTstormChaserCaleb:

That's where the greatest vorticity seems to be.



Looking at it in zoomed
That vort looks further S like near 8N
93l is not going to form for several reasons. One is obviously the dry air intrustion and continued SAL to the north of it. SAL limits tstms. Without tstms this will not form.

Ecmwf tracks a well defined vorticity max into the Bahamas but never closes a low thus it never forms. GFS is lost, I suggest stop following it.
Yesterday's entrainment of dry air really shrunk 93Ls pouch of moisture. Because of this, the storm will be even more susceptible to dry air than it already was. Couple that with accelerating trades and increased shear, and it doesn't look like this system will have much of a future.
1235. sflmike
The African waves are not racing westward like last year. (WEAK TRADEWINDS) This may signal an early and active Cape Verde season.
Ecmwf suggests cape verde development August 8 from a tropical wave near cv organizing at 240 hrs... so there is some hope!!
Didn't DR. Masters in his blog yesterday mention that 93L might not "start" to get it together until Wednsday afternoon? Give it time folks. It was "never" forecasted to hit optimIum conditions until then
Quoting 1226. wunderkidcayman:



You know what looking at it again with newer images it might be but it's not rising it's just moving W


For some reason this makes me think of Ben Kenobi waving his hand and saying "These are not the droids you are looking for...."
It also looks like pressure systems leaving Africa at or north of the cape V islands instead of south, tend to have a strong recurve and not make it across the Atlantic.
IMO.

I hate optimlum conditions.
1240. MahFL
Quoting 1139. Tazmanian:

30 two 40kt of shear is waiting for 93L it has less then 24-hours then its over for 93L




It's days away from 40 kts. Also it's "to" not "two". If your going to type in English try use the correct words.
1241. Patrap
76F and clear at 9am Local here.

Gaw jus!


Visual imagery and CIMMS TPW imagery show it is losing its round, cyclonic shape and expanding back to become part of the ITCZ or monsoon trough, and there is clearly not enough deep convection, not even at what should have been D-Max, to maintain low pressure.


And now the weak storms ahead of it are spitting out arc clouds as they die, a sign of dry air.

It ain't over till it is over, but odds of TC development in the next 5 days are under 50%.


Maybe some remnant will sneak into the East Pac and be there next system. I think, besides ENSO influences, active EPAC/slow ATL and vice versa is a function of disturbances that do or don't develop in the Atalntic and don't/do reach the EPAC.


Edit- their, not there. There/their/they're...
The African waves are not racing westward like last year at this time(Weak Tradewinds?).
Quoting 1237. NortheastGuy:

Didn't DR. Masters in his blog yesterday mention that 93L might not "start" to get it together until Wednsday afternoon? Give it time folks. It was "never" forecasted to hit optimIum conditions until then


Slow development is what was forecast due to marginally favorable conditions...We have seen the exact opposite of slow development. I don't claim to know why...I just know that 93 has been gasping for over 24hrs now; and a weak tropical system can not survive like that.
Quoting 1220. StormJunkie:



Just can't see recon flying in to a trash cloud formation. And wouldn't 35mph warrant a TS, not a TD? All a TD really needs is a closed surface low...Which I really do not think we will have...If it even exists right now. 93L has come completely unglued at the seams.


I think most flights for tomorrow will fly:

Thursday, July 31, 2014

G-IV: Is tasked to fly a surveillance mission around the area of disturbance in the mid Atlantic (AL93). No HRD scientists will be on this flight.

NOAA42: Is tasked to fly a Pre-storm ocean survey research mission. The goal of this mission is to gather oceanic and atmospheric data in the area ahead of AL93. The NOAA42 aircraft is scheduled to take off at 10AM (eastern) from St. Croix and recover in Barbados eight hours later. Two HRD scientists will be onboard.


Link


Addition: Looks like they may have cancelled the Ocean Survey Mission
TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 31/1100Z TO 01/1100Z AUGUST 2014
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


You know what looking at it again with newer images it might be but it's not rising it's just moving W


Based on the 06 GFS, 93L should reach 10 degrees North Lat around 5pm (Eastern U.S. time)this evening.
By tomorrow morning around 8am, 93L should be around 12 degrees north Latitude.

So we should start to see a gradual change to a W/WNW movement later today if its going to follow the current GFS forecast.
Looks like a visitor on the way also.

1249. MahFL
Quoting 1223. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I don't see much strengthen, not with all that dry air out ahead of it.




Maybe those showers ahead of it will moisten things up a little bit.
Quoting MahFL:


It's days away from 40 kts. Also it's "to" not "two". If your going to type in English try use the correct words.

Practice what you preach. It's "you're" not "your". Also, it's "using" not "use".
nrti, if you think they will fly; then I have to go with that. I just can't get over how horrible 93 looks. I knew all along that it wasn't supposed to bomb out; but to see it in this state of disrepair is surprising to say the least. I think you said it best last night with the "Ughhh" ;-)
Quoting 1246. nrtiwlnvragn:


I think most flights for tomorrow will fly:

Thursday, July 31, 2014

G-IV: Is tasked to fly a surveillance mission around the area of disturbance in the mid Atlantic (AL93). No HRD scientists will be on this flight.

NOAA42: Is tasked to fly a Pre-storm ocean survey research mission. The goal of this mission is to gather oceanic and atmospheric data in the area ahead of AL93. The NOAA42 aircraft is scheduled to take off at 10AM (eastern) from St. Croix and recover in Barbados eight hours later. Two HRD scientists will be onboard.


Link


If one reads the POD for the following ay, one knows it is rather common to cancel tasked missions the morning they were due to depart. If this doesn't pull a miracle comeback, they will probably cancel tomorrow's missions tomorrow morning. It may still have a closed circulation, but it has no deep convection. Oranized convection is one of the requirements of a TC. This is clearly lacking that. It may have been a TD yesterday, but NHC didn't upgrade then. It is not a TC now. It almost looks like a post tropical EPAC storm that has crossed the 26º SST isotherm and is starting to ingest the stable strato-cu.
Quoting 1251. StormJunkie:

nrti, if you think they will fly; then I have to go with that. I just can't get over how horrible 93 looks. I knew all along that it wasn't supposed to bomb out; but to see it in this state of disrepair is surprising to say the least. I think you said it best last night with the "Ughhh" ;-)


TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 31/1100Z TO 01/1100Z AUGUST 2014


Still scheduled
1254. hydrus
Quoting 1241. Patrap:

76F and clear at 9am Local here.

Gaw jus!



Morning Pat. 53 here..Feels like fall.
1255. MahFL
Some rain for the Islands.

http://www.barbadosweather.org/RadarPro/BMS_Radar Displayer.php

Quoting 1252. EdMahmoud:



If one reads the POD for the following ay, one knows it is rather common to cancel tasked missions the morning they were due to depart. If this doesn't pull a miracle comeback, they will probably cancel tomorrow's missions tomorrow morning. It may still have a closed circulation, but it has no deep convection. Oranized convection is one of the requirements of a TC. This is clearly lacking that. It may have been a TD yesterday, but NHC didn't upgrade then. It is not a TC now. It almost looks like a post tropical EPAC storm that has crossed the 26º SST isotherm and is starting to ingest the stable strato-cu.


They could still fly like they did for TD02 after they ended advisories, they still flew the Recon mission. Can only go on what is currently published.
1257. GatorWX
Morning all. Until this can sustain some deep, persistent convection, 93L will forever be 93L, until the list gets recycled. With that said, it's looking less likely every moment it gets closer to the Lesser Antilles. The conditions are anything but ideal. The dry stable atmosphere is a similar to last year. Waves would roll off Africa, a few would develop, but around 40-45w, they'd hit a wall. Shear was never the big issue, but lack of instability, I think, has been the harbinger. I guess it's quite obvious really, but why? It's the same question that was asked again and again in '13. SAL, continental air off SA, lack of thermal variability away from the tropics, etc. It's interesting to hypothesize, but I think that we're all a bit confused as to why it is what it is. I don't think I remember Dr Masters addressing it directly, nor have I read anything specific anywhere else.

Shear:

Tropical Atlantic Vertical Instability:


Baffled! Oh well, c'mon 93, you got this..
Quoting 1253. nrtiwlnvragn:


TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 31/1100Z TO 01/1100Z AUGUST 2014


Still scheduled



And if it doesn't look any better ths time tomorrow, the flights scheduled tomorrow have a better than even chance of being cancelled, and tomorrow's POD will have a comment that the scheduled flights were cancelled by NHC around 13Z. Finding a closed circulation in a system without organized convection means nothing.
Quoting 1250. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Practice what you preach. It's "you're" not "your". Also, it's "using" not "use".

Looks like Ecmwf has some cvformation 240 hrs out. 93l doesnt form on ecmwf.
1260. hydrus
The cool temps here can be an indicator of a brutal winter. The last time we had this many cool nights was 1976..Some will remember what happened during the winter of 76,77.
1261. MahFL
Quoting 1250. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Practice what you preach. It's "you're" not "your". Also, it's "using" not "use".


Well as long as HE does I'll be happy.
1262. GatorWX
Did I mention I am seriously wondering if the warm AMO is ending just a tad earlier than predicted, and we are back to the 1970s and 80s of under 10 named storms a year, with a hurricane threatening the US maybe every other year?
1264. Grothar


Link:

Click on any track and get hurricane history.

Link
Quoting 1104. momof4girls:

the 93 party is over see you all in 2 months for the next lame poof storm


I'll bet you're a blast at parties.
93L Looks a little smaller in size this morning as well as dry as a bone with little or no convection. The circulation is still intact but if it does not begin to make that expected turn to the NW soon it's going to run into NE South America and Trinidad.
Quoting 1250. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Practice what you preach. It's "you're" not "your".


and "using" not "use". But w/e this is a weather blog not an english spelling/grammar class.

On topic, I would like to know for those of you who have seen Levi's latest video, what are the causes of the puff of SAL and sinking dry air to outpace and over take the tropical wave?
1268. Patrap
Morning hydrus, indeed some nice July coolth is welcome.



Short term...
a nice day is in store for the forecast area today as a drier
air mass is in place. Expect mostly clear conditions and
temperatures reaching the middle and upper 80s today. Overnight lows
tonight will dip into middle 60s across the Northshore and low 70s
south of the lake.
1269. Grothar
Now that I'm on, the Doc should be on any minute now.

Quoting 1240. MahFL:



It's days away from 40 kts. Also it's "to" not "two". If your going to type in English try use the correct words.

I hope you know he has a mental condition so I wouldnt harrass him. I also have general anxiety disorder so don't harass me either.
Quoting 1220. StormJunkie:



Just can't see recon flying in to a trash cloud formation. And wouldn't 35mph warrant a TS, not a TD? All a TD really needs is a closed surface low...Which I really do not think we will have...If it even exists right now. 93L has come completely unglued at the seams.
35mph is a td 35kt is a ts. 30knots is a td 40mph is a ts.
1272. Patrap
Ack, coff, das kaput'

for now at least


Quoting 1257. GatorWX:

Morning all. Until this can sustain some deep, persistent convection, 93L will forever be 93L, until the list gets recycled. With that said, it's looking less likely every moment it gets closer to the Lesser Antilles. The conditions are anything but ideal. The dry stable atmosphere is a similar to last year. Waves would roll off Africa, a few would develop, but around 40-45w, they'd hit a wall. Shear was never the big issue, but lack of instability, I think, has been the harbinger. I guess it's quite obvious really, but why? It's the same question that was asked again and again in '13. SAL, continental air off SA, lack of thermal variability away from the tropics, etc. It's interesting to hypothesize, but I think that we're all a bit confused as to why it is what it is. I don't think I remember Dr Masters addressing it directly, nor have I read anything specific anywhere else.

Shear:

Tropical Atlantic Vertical Instability:


Baffled! Oh well, c'mon 93, you got this..


The problem is in South America... Brazil has been in drought condition for the last 3 years.
Quoting 1259. Camille33:

Looks like Ecmwf has some cvformation 240 hrs out. 93l doesnt form on ecmwf.



Actually, it doesn't get very strong, but it does form. Doesn't look like more than a TD judging from 850 mb winds, and it starts opening after passing North of Puerto Rico.


That forecast is probably optimistic
Quoting 1263. EdMahmoud:

Did I mention I am seriously wondering if the warm AMO is ending just a tad earlier than predicted, and we are back to the 1970s and 80s of under 10 named storms a year, with a hurricane threatening the US maybe every other year?


I was saying that last year. Don't know if we are but I think that it has to be considered. We won't know for another 2-3 years.
Quoting 1269. Grothar:

Now that I'm on, the Doc should be on any minute now.






93 and brother blob taking big bites out of SAL for the EAFR guy.
1277. hydrus
For Mid TN..

Since 1960, there have only been nine years (16% of the total) when
the temperature fell into 50s on 3 or more days of the month--and one
of those is this year. The other years were:

2009... with 3 minima in the 50s.
1976... with 6 " " "
1972... with 4 " " "
1970... with 3 " " "
1968... with 3 " " "
1967... with 4 " " "
1964... with 3 " " "
1963... with 3 " " "
Quoting 1264. Grothar:



Link:

Click on any track and get hurricane history.

Link
Thanks Grothar and good morning to you good sir, I thought for a second the 1921 Tarpon Springs Hurricane was missing from that map, but it is there, just didn't show the continued track.
Quoting 1271. allancalderini:

35mph is a td 35kt is a ts. 30knots is a td 40mph is a ts.


I meant knts...Sorry, just got off a 12hr shift. But unless I am mistaken, there is no min required wind speed for a TD. just a closed surface low with convection of course.

On a side note; whoever coined the term "Trash Low"...I can't tell you how many times it has made me chuckle.
Quoting 1276. redwagon:




93 and brother blob taking big bites out of SAL for the EAFR guy.


A wave that comes off Africa closer to 15ºN than 10ºN is rather unlikely to make it anywhere near North America.
1281. Grothar
I don't believe that large area of convection behind 93L is the other small wave, but just a flareup of convection betwixt the two of them.



Tropical Depression:
A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) is 33 kt (38 mph or 62 km/hr) or less.


Straight from the experts...And just to be clear; here is how they define a TC...

Tropical Cyclone:
A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere. In this they differ from extratropical cyclones, which derive their energy from horizontal temperature contrasts in the atmosphere (baroclinic effects).

93 does not meet any of these atm...If they had a definition in there for Trash Low or Junk Wave, then 93 would meet those criteria; but just barely. ;-)
Quoting 1280. EdMahmoud:



A wave that comes off Africa closer to 15ºN than 10ºN is rather unlikely to make it anywhere near North America.


Anything that jumps off at 15o will be strangled by SAL before it gets its hair wet.
1284. MahFL
Quoting 1276. redwagon:





93 and brother blob taking big bites out of SAL for the EAFR guy.


Yes but more SAL will keep coming for decades and decades......
1285. Grothar
1286. Grothar
Quoting 1278. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Thanks Grothar and good morning to you good sir, I thought for a second the 1921 Tarpon Springs Hurricane was missing from that map, but it is there, just didn't show the continued track.


What? Do you have them all memorized? Please, my dear friend Caleb, for your own sake get a life. I've memorized every storm since 1780 and where did it get me? :)
Quoting 1261. MahFL:



Well as long as HE does I'll be happy.
If you want to correct other people's grammar, you need to first correct your own. Otherwise you are merely being petty. If it bothers you that much, you know what you can do.



If only we built giant nuclear power plants to power de-sal plants that would water the Sahara and keep the dust down..


Bonus, exhaust hot water from the nuclear plants could be pumped to 15ºN, 55ºW and really produce some TCHP.


27 w may need a new invest 94 I see some good vorticity,.
Quoting 1288. EdMahmoud:

If only we built giant nuclear power plants to power de-sal plants that would water the Sahara and keep the dust down..


Bonus, exhaust hot water from the nuclear plants could be pumped to 15ºN, 55ºW and really produce some TCHP.


Honestly, I am really, really glad we didn't waste money on CB's tunnels/tubes...or whatever they were...
I bid adieu. Only so many ways of saying something is pining for the fjords...

Quoting 1273. HuracandelCaribe:



The problem is in South America... Brazil has been in drought condition for the last 3 years.

Has to be connected to this "warm neutral" ENSO somehow....

Quoting 1279. StormJunkie:



I meant knts...Sorry, just got off a 12hr shift. But unless I am mistaken, there is no min required wind speed for a TD. just a closed surface low with convection of course.

On a side note; whoever coined the term "Trash Low"...I can't tell you how many times it has made me chuckle.
Drakoen. Not letting him live that down.... trash low needs to go into the Wunderground lexicon of wx terminology.... don't let it die!

LOL
1293. GatorWX


For me, that there is a good indication it's time to stop wasting time with this one and get some things done. Atm, looks like 93 is done too. Yes, things happen, but nothing's going to happen any time soon. Be back this evening after work to check in, but I'm not expecting much more than what we have now. Have a great day everyone. Enjoy that cooler weather folks to my north. Not sure it's gonna make it this far south.
Quoting 1288. EdMahmoud:

If only we built giant nuclear power plants to power de-sal plants that would water the Sahara and keep the dust down..


Bonus, exhaust hot water from the nuclear plants could be pumped to 15ºN, 55ºW and really produce some TCHP.
I think it has been said that the Sahara Desert was an Oasis at one time. Imagine how active the Tropics were then? The Atlantic was probably like the WPAC.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 1292. BahaHurican:

Has to be connected to this "warm neutral" ENSO somehow....

Drakoen. Not letting him live that down.... trash low needs to go into the Wunderground lexicon of wx terminology.... don't let it die!

LOL


Drak coined that??? I will be sure to thank him next time he's on! ;-)
Quoting 1286. Grothar:


What? Do you have them all memorized? Please, my dear friend Caleb, for your own sake get a life. I've memorized every storm since 1780 and where did it get me? :)


Where were you prior to 1780? There were lots of years in there Gro in your younger years.
1299. LargoFl