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Disturbance off the Coast of Africa a Potential Threat to the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:57 PM GMT on July 27, 2014

An area of disturbed weather near 11°N, 31°W, about 500 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, has the potential to develop into a tropical depression later this week as it heads west at 10 - 15 mph towards the Lesser Antilles Islands. Visible satellite loops on Sunday morning showed that the disturbance had only a minor amount of spin. Infrared satellite images showed that the system's heavy thunderstorm activity was modest at best, and had not changed significantly since Saturday. Wind shear was moderate, 10 - 15 knots, which should allow slow development. Ocean temperatures were marginal for development, about 27°C. Water vapor satellite loops showed that the atmosphere was reasonably moist in the area, though a large area of dry air lay a few hundred miles to the north.


Figure 1. MODIS true-color image from approximately 11:30 am EDT July 27, 2014, showing a tropical disturbance (marked with an "L") about 500 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the band of heavy thunderstorms that circles the globe in the tropics, is also apparent. Clusters of thunderstorms in the ITCZ may compete for moisture and energy, slowing development of the disturbance. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for the disturbance
Two of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the GFS and UKMET models, predicted in their 00Z Sunday runs that the disturbance would develop into a tropical depression by Thursday. Several of our less reliable models, the NAVGEM and Canadian models, also predicted development. The only reliable model that did not predict development was the European model, which historically has had the highest incidence of failing to predict development when development actually occurs. The fact that two out of three of the reliable genesis models predict development bolsters the odds that development will actually occur. In their 2 pm EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of development at 40%, up from their 20% forecast from Saturday evening.

All of the models predict that the disturbance will continue due west or just north of due west at 10 - 15 mph for the next five days. The UKMET is the fastest of the models, predicting that the disturbance will arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands on Friday. The GFS is slower, predicting a Saturday arrival in the islands. Once the disturbance crosses west of about 50°W longitude, ocean temperatures will warm to about 28°C, which should aid development. Dry air to the north will likely interfere with development by the middle of the week, and we will have to see if the moderate levels of wind shear forecast to occur over the tropical Atlantic will be capable of driving this dry air into the core of the system, disrupting formation. The disturbance may also have trouble disentangling itself from the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the band of heavy thunderstorms that circles the globe in the tropics, which lies just to the south of the disturbance. Clusters of thunderstorms in the ITCZ may compete for moisture and energy, slowing development of the disturbance. Most of the 20 members of the 06Z Sunday run of the GFS ensemble model (which runs the GFS model at low resolution 20 times with slightly different initial conditions to show a range of possible outcomes) showed the disturbance missing the U.S. East Coast and recurving out to sea early next week, but it is too early to assess the odds of this.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

So... we are in need of some rain.... Maybe in 150 hrs.....

Quoting 469. DonnieBwkGA:



At one point the NHC forecast had Frances in 2004 landfalling on the Georgia coast as a Cat 4 hurricane, right on top of where I am now.
All I have to say is, If I freaked out every time a 5-day model put a storm right over New Providence, I'd be all freaked out.... every season....

I like to provide as exhibit A Isabel, my avatar, which I have subnamed "The Scariest Cat-5 Never to Hit The Bahamas"....

And FYI, all u paranoid pple out there, like me, "just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they're not out to get you".... someday....

LOL
503. jpsb
Quoting 476. eyewallblues:

Would it make sense to detonate nuclear warheads at a depth, in the path of the storm? If the water temp could be brought suddenly to 31c or higher, it would be interesting to see what effect it would have.


I take it you do not like sea food.
Quoting 476. eyewallblues:

Would it make sense to detonate nuclear warheads at a depth, in the path of the storm? If the water temp could be brought suddenly to 31c or higher, it would be interesting to see what effect it would have.


Detonating a nuke at depth wouldn't do anything to the temperature of the ocean, way too much water to be affected greatly by a flashpoint explosion. Plus it would actually cause upwelling making the surface waters cooler.
505. LBAR
I, the simple, yet dynamic LBAR, think the area of interest will suck the moisture from the ITCZ, instead of competing with it for moisture.
Quoting 500. Climate175:

For some reason your comment really made me laugh because it's so true...
I'm pointing out the facts :).The storm can stay out to sea for all I care.
Just did a tropical update on the Atlantic...included is a special discussion about our tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic. I included a forecast which predicts the system to be a strong tropical storm by 120 hrs (5 days).
Quoting 477. CaribBoy:



Lol I saw that too
Typical Routine of the Blog.
anyone look African coast



Quoting 476. eyewallblues:

Would it make sense to detonate nuclear warheads at a depth, in the path of the storm? If the water temp could be brought suddenly to 31c or higher, it would be interesting to see what effect it would have.


See
Nuclear Test Ban Treaty


On July 25, 1963, after only 12 days of negotiations, the two nations agreed to ban testing in the atmosphere, in space, and underwater. The next day, in a television address announcing the agreement, Kennedy claimed that a limited test ban "is safer by far for the United States than an unlimited nuclear arms race."
Quoting 460. GeoffreyWPB:

wkc...I think it's time to repeat about your experience in tropical weather forecasting. I think some have forgot.


I guess you missed it. Tell them how you work for the Cayman weather office. The attacks are unfair! And you know I am your biggest fan!

Seems like some models agree on TS developing.... When, How strong, what islands will it impact etc... We will be here posting the details...

Quoting 504. VAbeachhurricanes:



Detonating a nuke at depth wouldn't do anything to the temperature of the ocean, way too much water to be affected greatly by a flashpoint explosion. Plus it would actually cause upwelling making the surface waters cooler.


That's actually what I thought he was talking about at first... An absolutely excessive method to kill a hurricane wit lower temp water from below.
Quoting 506. washingtonian115:

I'm pointing out the facts :).The storm can stay out to sea for all I care.
Like I have repeatedly said on this blog I am watching tropical systems, but really just waiting for something better in 6-8 months.
Quoting 478. Patrap:



If we take AB squared by the consensus values, then separate the immediacy data from the linguistics data sourced via the blog, we can forecast a cone of indifference or a forecast one too.

: P
You realize you didn't answer my question.... lol ....

Quoting 480. jrweatherman:



I'm in the group that says it's too early to speculate until something begins to develop a few days from now.
I think I'd pick this one too. I definitely don't want to denigrate the EURO until there's a real AOI out there. And if this does spin up as expected, credit should be given to GFS for picking out 2 in a row out there.

Of course that doesn't stop me from rooting for all my pals down there in the NE Antilles who could use a large wet soaker any time now.... lol

Quoting 511. GeoffreyWPB:



I guess you missed it. Tell them how you work for the Cayman weather office. The attacks are unfair! And you know I am your biggest fan!



Yes I at the cayman weather service
Also I spent some time doing weather for the military

You realize you didn't answer my question

There was a question ?

: P

Hernan, sunset



Quoting 517. GTstormChaserCaleb:

DOOM?


What is that, 60kt wind speeds there?
Quoting 514. Climate175:

Like I have repeatedly said on this blog I am watching tropical systems, but really just waiting for something better in 6-8 months.
I can't wait to see what this winter has in store.
Quoting 512405x008675:
anyone look African coast




Yes, indeed, that thunderstorm complex looks good. Unfortunately, they often look good over land and then keel over when they hit the ocean. We'll see how it looks tomorrow about this time.
Quoting 518. Patrap:

You realize you didn't answer my question

There was a question ?

: P


There's ALWAYS a question.... lol

BTW, how'z the therapy coming?
Semi-Doom?
524. beell

00Z at post time
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I guess you missed it. Tell them how you work for the Cayman weather office. The attacks are unfair! And you know I am your biggest fan!


I used to work at a weather office behind a Publix. Well, not a weather office exactly, but we sold barometers. Does that count? :-)
Quoting 519. BahaHurican:

What is that, 60kt wind speeds there?
Yep, but that's at 850 mb. this is what it looks like closer to the surface. Still a formidable TS.



Quoting 522. BahaHurican:

There's ALWAYS a question.... lol

BTW, how'z the therapy coming?


Thanx Baha, Jus 10 minutes of hangin it off bed with me prone, ..then lil circles with hand, then back in block sling. Won't be raising it past elbow till then,as I have to see the Surgeon again for that Aug 12th, or 6 weeks post op.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Detonating a nuke at depth wouldn't do anything to the temperature of the ocean, way too much water to be affected greatly by a flashpoint explosion. Plus it would actually cause upwelling making the surface waters cooler.

Plus, I don't think the spoilsports at Greenpeace would go for it either. :-)


Noting more of a NW ward tilt to the forecast genesis area .....
Quoting 509. 512405x008675:

anyone look African coast






great spin to the tropical wave on African coast
531. jpsb
Quoting 520. washingtonian115:

I can't wait to see what this winter has in store.


Cold
Quoting 520. washingtonian115:

I can't wait to see what this winter has in store.
Yea, I am preparing because we will be partying this winter. I remember this gif I brought out last year when we were about to get a big snowfall.
Quoting 516. wunderkidcayman:


Yes I at the cayman weather service
Also I spent some time doing weather for the military




"Why yes, Mister wunderkidcayman we have a complete dossier on you..."




Quoting Doppler22:
Man dies at Marina Del Rey hospital after lightning strike on Venice Beach, Los Angeles Coroner’s office says.
@cnnbrk

Eight people struck at Venice Beach, of all places. The one death is still unconfirmed but his condition was described as "grave", which usually means he's not going to make it. I don't think I've ever heard of anyone being struck by lightning at an LA area beach let alone eight folks.
536. FOREX
Quoting 529. BahaHurican:



Noting more of a NW ward tilt to the forecast genesis area .....


Looks like NHC buying in to GFS.
Quoting 520. washingtonian115:

I can't wait to see what this winter has in store.
A Blizzard in FL. while Washi gets no snow. :P
Please click image for text reports

Quoting beell:


And give it to me right NOW!!!
Patience. I'll bring you some. Soon as I figure out what hydrus and our grand caveman, Stormpetrol, mean by poleward. :/

(Classic wu. Love it or leave it.)
Video of the tornado in Rock Springs doing damage to homes and knocking out transformers.

Link
Quoting BahaHurican:


Noting more of a NW ward tilt to the forecast genesis area .....
Two day up to 10% from zero as well, although the five day is still at 40%. I don't think the NHC wants another TD2 to sneak up on them.
Quoting 524. beell:


00Z at post time

Not much in the way of consolidation yet. Vorticity overall is weak. GFS says this should start to change over the next 24 to 48 hours.





Not only the 4 same state landfalls.

This is what baffled me most by Fay.
Quoting Chucktown:
Video of the tornado in Rock Springs doing damage to homes and knocking out transformers.

Link

Very strange looking tornado. It looks like they were taking a video of another video on the computer monitor. It seems a little...odd to me.
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:


Not only the 4 same state landfalls.

This is what baffled me most by Fay.

I'm baffled also...
545. beell
Quoting 538. Barefootontherocks:

Soon as I figure out what hydrus and our grand caveman, Stormpetrol, mean by poleward. :/

(Classic wu. Love it or leave it.)


I think it means north-unless it means south.

Some comments, even make it up on the Big Board eventually. But it iz,..rare

The wunderground server is very sensitive.





Quoting 517. GTstormChaserCaleb:

DOOM?



Hmm looks like FIM9 is going for either landfall on S Dominica or passes between Dominica and Martinique

Anyway I'm out for now be back in an hour
Quoting 465. CaribBoy:



More storms impact SE Florida and the Northern Leewards according to climatology.


Heh, kinda funny seeing very few cyclones have impacted Southeast Florida in the last 40 years.
Link
Tornado in Kingsport, TN
Itsa...Itsa..........I...DUNNO!...
551. beell
Quoting 541. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Not much in the way of consolidation yet. GFS says this should start to change over the next 24 hours.




Can you have too much upper diverence?



1 dead, 13 injured due to that lightning strike according to AP.

Crazy, was the storm even over them or was it a rogue strike I wonder.
Quoting 551. beell:



Can you have too much upper diverence?






All of that upper level divergence should induce the formation of an area of low pressure
Quoting 551. beell:



Can you have too much upper diverence?





I don't know, but more is on the way. :)

A significant tornado hit the town of Speedwell, TN earlier today. Emergency Managers reported that at least 10 homes have been completely destroyed.
Quoting 555. Ameister12:

A significant tornado hit the town of Speedwell, TN earlier today. Emergency Managers reported that at least 10 homes have been completely destroyed.


Hopefully everyone was okay
Quoting 556. Doppler22:


Hopefully everyone was okay

I haven't heard any reports of injuries. Hopefully it stays that way.
558. SLU
Quoting 436. CaribBoy:



Very disappointed with the 18Z GFS. The GFS adjusts the track to the right each new run :-(


Won't be long before it readjusts to the left.
559. beell
Quoting 553. Drakoen:



All of that upper level divergence should induce the formation of an area of low pressure


All kidding aside, it should, Drak. A hint or two of some southerly shear ahead for this wave.
Re-post for everyone's enjoyment. When Mom gets her pictures uploaded, I'll share the best with you guys. Truly epic. Never seen anything remotely close to what just happened.

Quoting 33. originalLT:

Max, looks like Astro was just rocked with a pretty strong T. Storm down there in Tn. about 9:30pm his time.


Will check rain gauge in the morning, but I'll be lucky if I got 1/4" of rain. All the storms missed me, but lemme tell you something. That was the LARGEST display of lightning I've ever seen. FIVE thunderstorms, all of them lightning storms. Just epic. The ones that are warned weren't even the best. As always, the best one was for last. Structure was beautiful, you could see the updraft as it was illuminated by powerful CC strokes. The CG strokes were so bright, some of them over-saturated my eyes' pixels (if you think of a camera). Simply epic. Comparable to the show the storms down in the tropics produce. And there these weird shorties 50,000ft up at the very top of the thunderhead, short strokes like the concussive explosions you see at 4th of July fireworks.

One single gust front, no tree damage other than shredded leaves, but did drop the temperature from the 86 it was to 75. And got rid of the humidity too.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I don't know, but more is on the way. :)



Anything coming out of the death-trap that the MDR has become the last few years will need all the upper divergence it can get.
562. beell
Quoting 554. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I don't know, but more is on the way. :)




The graphic seems to have captured the upper low near 20N/60W and the flow around its base quite well.
Added: And the precip along the ITCZ of course.
Added: And the upper ridge over TX and the NW Gulf.
:)
Quoting beell:


I think it means north-unless it means south.
LMAO.

And are there not Poles to the east and west, depending what way you circle toward eastern Europe?
;)
...

I'm in the camp with development and north movement. Reasoning. Another cold front moving into the middle soon (add: here in OK tomorrow) that will drop high temps twenty degrees F like the last one did. The high will weaken. The bugger will move North, not south, east or far, far west.
Quoting 542. JrWeathermanFL:



Not only the 4 same state landfalls.

This is what baffled me most by Fay.
Freaky Fay... that was a serious storm. But steering seemed pretty whack on the whole that season. Look at the tracks for the F to I storms, u will see what I mean....
565. txjac
Quoting 560. Astrometeor:

Re-post for everyone's enjoyment. When Mom gets her pictures uploaded, I'll share the best with you guys. Truly epic. Never seen anything remotely close to what just happened.



Will check rain gauge in the morning, but I'll be lucky if I got 1/4" of rain. All the storms missed me, but lemme tell you something. That was the LARGEST display of lightning I've ever seen. FIVE thunderstorms, all of them lightning storms. Just epic. The ones that are warned weren't even the best. As always, the best one was for last. Structure was beautiful, you could see the updraft as it was illuminated by powerful CC strokes. The CG strokes were so bright, some of them over-saturated my eyes' pixels (if you think of a camera). Simply epic. Comparable to the show the storms down in the tropics produce. And there these weird shorties 50,000ft up at the very top of the thunderhead, short strokes like the concussive explosions you see at 4th of July fireworks.

One single gust front, no tree damage other than shredded leaves, but did drop the temperature from the 86 it was to 75. And got rid of the humidity too.


Sounds glorious
566. FOREX
00Z GFS starts in 7 minutes.
HURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082014
800 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Hernan's cloud pattern has already begun to deteriorate a bit since
it reached hurricane strength this afternoon. The last few visible
images showed arc clouds emanating away from the western semicircle,
which could be an indication that drier air is getting into the
circulation. Satellite intensity estimates are somewhat
conflicting, with the subjective numbers from TAFB and SAB
increasing from 6 hours ago while the objective T-numbers from the
ADT have decreased. Therefore, the intensity is being held at 65 kt
for this advisory. Given the recent satellite trends, however,
Hernan may not last as a hurricane for much longer. The cyclone
only has about 12-18 hours left before it crosses the 26C isotherm
and plows over much colder water, leading to a quicker weakening
trend after 24 hours. The main difference with the previous
forecast is at 48 hours and beyond, with Hernan now expected to
become a remnant low by day 3 and dissipate by day 5.

Hernan continues to move northwestward with an initial motion of
310/13 kt. This motion is being caused by a strong mid-level ridge
located over Mexico and the southern United States and should
continue for the next 36 hours. After that time, the cyclone is
forecast to turn west-northwestward and slow down considerably as
it is left in an environment of weak low-level steering. The
updated NHC forecast is nudged a bit north of the previous forecast
beyond 48 hours toward the model consensus TVCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 19.3N 113.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 20.3N 114.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 21.8N 117.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 23.1N 119.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 23.9N 121.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 31/0000Z 24.5N 123.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/0000Z 24.5N 125.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED
568. JRRP
Time for the models to be posted soon.
570. FOREX
00Z GFS is a go!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Yeeeeeeehaw.
572. SLU
Quoting 517. GTstormChaserCaleb:

DOOM?




Falling in line with my general thinking. "Bertha" entering the Caribbean at 15N and not going north.
573. FOREX
Quoting 569. Climate175:

Time for the models to be posted soon.


Can you post them? I don't know how.
Quoting 573. FOREX:



Can you post them? I don't know how.
Yep I will once more of the images have come in.
Quoting 563. Barefootontherocks:

And are there not Poles to the east and west, depending what way you circle toward eastern Europe?
;)

And some in Cleveland and Chicago. A few of us even gave that up as a bad job and moved east.
But at the risk of a ban, let me ask this...
Suppose the joke had been turned around, and one of the Grrrlz had written:
I know a guy with a biased pole.
Would the Boyz have found that quite as humorous? ;)
36 hrs.
012mb is probably like a black hole O_o
The wave is getting more and more interesting.
I guess the storms in Tennessee will be headed down into northern Alabama sometime early this morning. This front seems to be defying predictions so far, speeding up, slowing down...I don't know when (or if) the front will make it to south Alabama with enough gumption to do much. It looks like it has slowed yet again tonight. We have plenty of heat and humidity (85 with a 75 dewpoint right now) for when the front finally gets here but it looks like the storms will be highly diurnally dependent. If it doesn't make it here before dark, we will be lucky to see a few showers. If it gets here by 1500, things might get more exciting.

At this point, i just want that "polar vortex" to get here, and get here quick. The actual high today was 101 with a heat index high of 115. It was seriously difficult to breathe outside today. The only time I ever remember air this humid and uncomfortable outside the tropics is when I was a kid in Cleveland in the 50's. My bedroom was in the attic, and I spent many a night with a pillow on the windowsill, trying to catch any breath of air that passed by.
The GFS foresees tropical cyclone formation in the next two to three days. For now, we watch and wait.

Goodnight everyone.
582. FOREX
Quoting 579. Climate175:

The wave is getting more and more interesting.


Convection building nicely.
Quoting FOREX:
00Z GFS starts in 7 minutes.

You going to do this for the next five days?
Quoting 572. SLU:



Falling in line with my general thinking. "Bertha" entering the Caribbean at 15N and not going north.


12Z FIM 500 mb heights/winds would take it North. Whether to fish or threaten the SE US, that would be the question.

Assuming the 15km FIM is correct...

It would go NW. Fish or ECUSA threat- too soon to tell.



Quoting 581. TylerStanfield:

The GFS foresees tropical cyclone formation in the next 36 to 60 hours.

Goodnight everyone.
Night Tyler.
Quoting EstherD:

And some in Cleveland and Chicago. A few of us even gave that up as a bad job and moved east.
But at the risk of a ban, let me ask this...
Suppose the joke had been turned around, and one of the Grrrlz had written:
I know a guy with a biased pole.
Would the Boyz have found that quite as humorous? ;)

What's a Grrrlz? :-) I used to live on Fleet Avenue, deep in the Polish heart of Cleveland. Even the street signs were in Polish. Best kielbasa outside Warsaw.
Quoting Astrometeor:
Re-post for everyone's enjoyment. When Mom gets her pictures uploaded, I'll share the best with you guys. Truly epic. Never seen anything remotely close to what just happened.



Will check rain gauge in the morning, but I'll be lucky if I got 1/4" of rain. All the storms missed me, but lemme tell you something. That was the LARGEST display of lightning I've ever seen. FIVE thunderstorms, all of them lightning storms. Just epic. The ones that are warned weren't even the best. As always, the best one was for last. Structure was beautiful, you could see the updraft as it was illuminated by powerful CC strokes. The CG strokes were so bright, some of them over-saturated my eyes' pixels (if you think of a camera). Simply epic. Comparable to the show the storms down in the tropics produce. And there these weird shorties 50,000ft up at the very top of the thunderhead, short strokes like the concussive explosions you see at 4th of July fireworks.

One single gust front, no tree damage other than shredded leaves, but did drop the temperature from the 86 it was to 75. And got rid of the humidity too.

Very cool, Astro. There's almost nothing I like better than to sit on the front porch and watch a good display of lightning. I'm hoping we get some of that tomorrow.
I am pretty sure that we will be seeing an Invest tomorrow.
Quoting 585. EdMahmoud:



12Z FIM 500 mb heights/winds would take it North. Whether to fish or threaten the SE US, that would be the question.

Assuming the 15km FIM is correct...

It would go NW. Fish or ECUSA threat- too soon to tell.






Seems to be the most likely possibilities...and even then; the E coast threat takes a bit of a stretch at this point. Troughiness and the weak AB high will be the controlling factors. It would have to move much slower than expected, AND the high start to build back in for it to get to the E coast.

Or it might hump the ridge...Cause we all know that's a real thing...
592. FOREX
Quoting 590. Climate175:

I am pretty sure that we will be seeing an Invest tomorrow.


The wave is looking a lot better than yesterday.
Quoting 590. Climate175:

I am pretty sure that we will be seeing an Invest tomorrow.
What's the GFS look like at 60 hrs?
78 hrs out.
996 mb at 96hrs

596. MahFL
Looks to me like a low rider, would it not take a lot to re-curve a low rider out to sea ?

Quoting 593. BahaHurican:

What's the GFS look like at 60 hrs?
I posted it below.
598. wxmod
Smoke and fires Canada. MODIS images.


599. JRRP

Quoting 587. sar2401:


What's a Grrrlz? :-) I used to live on Fleet Avenue, deep in the Polish heart of Cleveland. Even the street signs were in Polish. Best kielbasa outside Warsaw.

A Grrrl is a female who dislikes sexist jokes on a weather blog.

And I used to play drums in a three-piece polka band that played Polish weddings in that area for $20 and all the food we could eat. (They would have given us all the beer we wanted, too, but we were under-age at the time.)
I hold out my weenie optimism for possible ECUSA from yesterday's (12Z?) GFS showing mid level Bermuda ridge strengthening a tad, and forcing the East Coast trough to take a more neutral orientation and maybe even retrograde just a smidge.

Silver lining optimism. Aka wishcasting.
Quoting 596. MahFL:

Looks to me like a low rider, would it not take a lot to re-curve a low rider out to sea ?



If the system deepens as the GFS suggests (which isn't unreasonable), then it will tend to move more poleward because of the weakness east of Bermuda.
604. JRRP
Quoting MahFL:
Looks to me like a low rider, would it not take a lot to re-curve a low rider out to sea ?


the GFS don´t see it in that way
Quoting 595. VAbeachhurricanes:

996 mb at 96hrs


Still looking like NE Car and Bermuda so far...
Trough, Trough, Trough!

Not sure it will miss the islands this run

994mb

About the same

But huge in size
OT - Panna Maria (Polish for Virgin Mary) in Texas is the oldest continuously settled Polish-American community in the United States. And Poles, Germans and Czechs introduced Mexican cowboys to polka music, producing the unique Texas fusion music of Polka Norteña....
Quoting 606. Drakoen:

Trough, Trough, Trough!


Where Where?! I don't see it lol
Quoting 594. Climate175:

78 hrs out.


Look how far N the high is centered. And that trough is way out in the Atlantic.
987mb definitely not missing the islands



Trough setup
Your not out of it Islands!
614. JLPR2
Quoting 612. VAbeachhurricanes:

987mb definitely not missing the islands




In this run it went from a possible drought quencher to a problem.
615. JRRP
Trough is retrograding slightly at 120 hrs, but the high is still pretty weak around the SW edge.

617. SLU
Further south and falling in line with the consensus of the other models. BINGO!.



Trough still hanging around

619. JRRP
Quoting 614. JLPR2:



In this run it went from a possible drought quencher to a problem.
I still think the GFS is way too strong with the system.
UKMET like track on the GFS 00z

18z-


00z-riding lower than the 18z run..


Quoting 617. SLU:

Further south and falling in line with the consensus of the other models. BINGO!.


Quoting 560. Astrometeor:

... but did drop the temperature from the 86 it was to 75. And got rid of the humidity too.

Thanks for confirming what I remember about rainstorms from my childhood days in the Midwest. I've told native New Englanders about that, but they don't believe me.

When it rains around here, the temperature does drop, but the dewpoint shoots up as well, until they meet somewhere in the middle, with the dewpoint usually doing most of the work to close the gap. Summer rainstorms in Boston with 99% humidity. Yuk.

Oh... and I miss the lightning, too. Storms around here just can't get going like that. Too much stable marine air, or some such.
Moving NW missing most of the islands
Looks like the Hunters will be packing up and heading to the Islands. Should be busy at the Home Base in the AM...
.
Quoting EstherD:

A Grrrl is a female who dislikes sexist jokes on a weather blog.

And I used to play drums in a three-piece polka band that played Polish weddings in that area for $20 and all the food we could eat. (They would have given us all the beer we wanted, too, but we were under-age at the time.)

Ah, I see. I'm much too dense to understand sexist jokes. I lived in apartment above a Polish meat market on Fleet, right across from St. Stans, when I was first married, way back in 1966. Except for the mills belching smoke and the cold walk down the hall to the shared bathroom, it was a great place to live for $70 a month. My late wife and I worked at St. Alexis. I visited the area a couple of years ago. St. Alexis has been torn down after serving the people of the area for almost 80 years. My meat market home was abandoned and then torched by arsonists. Things aren't quite the same there now. :-(
Quoting 619. JRRP:


What the heck is that monster leaving africa???
Quoting rescueguy:
Looks like the Hunters will be packing up and heading to the Islands. Should be busy at the Home Base in the AM...

At least one is already stationed at St. Croix.
Just NE of PR



Earl like track
Deja Vu...
633. ackee
Once the GFS gets stuck on a solution it will take while before it goes in line the wave is a low latitude and is huge in size will take some time to organzie also wave be so close to ITCZ it may appear s as if wave is getter better organize when that may be far from case I hope the NHC declare this an invest today for me I still see a weaker system tracking west in line with the EURO guess we see have GOOD night everyone
634. JRRP
Quoting Gearsts:
What the heck is that monster leaving africa???

jejeje
A track like the 0z (so far) is what I'd forecast if I were making one. Clipping the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico on its way northwest before recurving near Bermuda.
Quoting 628. Gearsts:

What the heck is that monster leaving africa???


Cue the evidence of a wet Sahel region.
This run appears to be like it will go closer to the East Coast, I may be wrong but it is not moving north.
Looking more like a 2010 Twave ;)
641. IDTH
Quoting 631. Gearsts:

Earl like track

That's what I was thinking.
Quoting 637. Climate175:

This run appears to be like it will go closer to the East Coast, I may be wrong but it is not moving north.


It may go just west of Bermuda, but i believe that's about as far west as it'll get before recurvature.
look at adjustments the GFS made..watch the trends..good night all..
18z


00z
Quoting 643. ncstorm:

look at adjustments the GFS made..watch the trends..good night all..
18z


00z

CaribBoy will be happy
still out to sea though :(
Quoting 646. wunderweatherman123:

still out to sea though :(


It'll bring rain to a good part of the Caribbean. That's all we need it to do.
This will be like the 1928 okachobee hurricane and 1961 donna. trough is now very deep into athaltnic and is more a cut off low.
649. JLPR2
Good for the NE islands, sucks for PR. But it's still to early to tell what it will do, I'll wait till we have an invest/TD to take the models seriously.

Quoting 644. Grothar:




It will take a while to consolidate.
Quoting 649. JLPR2:

Good for the NE islands, sucks for PR. But it's still to early to tell what it will do, I'll wait till we have an invest/TD to take the models seriously.




Oh boy,just a few miles east is the deluge that evades us but is still very early.
Quoting 644. Grothar:




What's an old person like you doing up so late?

Edit: Added word.
Quoting 627. sar2401:


Ah, I see. I'm much too dense to understand sexist jokes. I lived in apartment above a Polish meat market on Fleet, right across from St. Stans, when I was first married, way back in 1966. Except for the mills belching smoke and the cold walk down the hall to the shared bathroom, it was a great place to live for $70 a month. My late wife and I worked at St. Alexis. I visited the area a couple of years ago. St. Alexis has been torn down after serving the people of the area for almost 80 years. My meat market home was abandoned and then torched by arsonists. Things aren't quite the same there now. :-(

So you might remember the "Polish Parma" jokes.

All three of us lived in Parma. The accordion player was a first-gen American. Solid Polish on both sides. His parents emigrated to the US after WWII. They maintained connections with the old neighborhood, so they were the ones who got us all the jobs. Same with the sax/clarinet player, except his parents broke all connections when they moved to the 'burbs.

I was the odd-lot in more ways than one, and still am. Depending on how you want to think about it, I'm either half German and half Polish, or all German. My "Polish" relatives left Europe when it was still East Prussia. They were proud to be German until WWI, then kinda put all that away for good. (Except Schnitzelbank. ;)
Hey FOREX, Remember last week when I showed you the wave and you wrote, "Bertha?" and I answered, "No Grothar" . Well take a look see. :)



Quoting 643. ncstorm:

look at adjustments the GFS made..watch the trends..good night all..
18z


00z



Still early. The evolution of the AB High and the LW Trough over the Eastern Conus (or Lack thereof)will tell the tale IMHO.
657. Siker
Trough is weaker and more inland this run, but prevailing flow still recurves it as the Bermuda High hasn't expanded enough.
658. FOREX
Quoting 655. Grothar:

Hey FOREX, Remember last week when I showed you the wave and you wrote, "Bertha?" and I answered, "No Grothar" . Well take a look see. :)






I remember. Will be an interesting week.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Not sure it will miss the islands this run

994mb

Most likely will follow the same track as its predecessor TD2,but been an stronger system will feel the weakness and probably pull to the north around 57w 15N,by the tutt, bringing it over or skirting the northern Leewards... my humble opinion, not an expert,just base on climatology and previews experiences
...
Quoting Grothar:
Looking ominous, and probably a large system on the making,how strong? Time will tell....
All in all, the00Z GFS is pretty much showing the same thing it has been. Towards the Northern Islands, then to the N. Where exactly the trough is and exactly how weak the edge of the high is remains to be seen; but all in all...it makes sense given the current and forecast conditions.
I've never seen an ITCZ breakdown like this.

(Granted, I've only been monitoring the tropics for 5 years)

Quoting 662. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I've never seen an ITCZ breakdown like this.

(Granted, I've only been monitoring the tropics for 5 years)




Well Cody as we all know 5 years isn't even close to a baseline for climate scie [punches self in face]
6 a.m. EDT July 28th is exactly 100 years from the start of World War I, when Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia
Quoting 663. VAbeachhurricanes:



Well Cody as we all know 5 years isn't even close to a baseline for comment scie [punches self in face]


Repeat as needed ;)
The trough is likely to stick around even as the wave enters the western Atlantic. But the GFS and ECMWF do show the trough slowly beginning to regress westward right around that time. There's still a threat to the mid-Atlantic in that pattern.
In other news, Invest 96W is absolutely massive.

668. JRRP
don´t forget this
Quoting 668. JRRP:

don´t forget this

still out to sea. further west i hope
Quoting 669. wunderweatherman123:

still out to sea. further west i hope


Danny, have you learned nothing from some of us? >_>
Quoting 667. TropicalAnalystwx13:

In other news, Invest 96W is absolutely massive.




Why does it look weird?
Quoting 670. KoritheMan:



Danny, have you learned nothing from some of us? >_>
learned what? that the models will shift further west and future bertha will hit the US? is that it?
673. Siker
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
In other news, Invest 96W is absolutely massive.



Its successor looks just as weird, 941mb @ 192 hrs per the GFS yet very lopsided appearance.
Quoting 670. KoritheMan:



Danny, have you learned nothing from some of us? >_>


"its going west to Cayman"

"yep, then north to me in LA"

Do I have to name those two bloggers or can you guys guess?
Quoting 674. Astrometeor:



"its going west to Cayman"

"yep, then north to me in LA"

Do I have to name those two bloggers or can you guys guess?


When I say that I'm being facetious. When I'm actually forecasting (now), I'm serious.

Stop your slandering. :)
676. Siker
Quoting Astrometeor:


"its going west to Cayman"

"yep, then north to me in LA"

Do I have to name those two bloggers or can you guys guess?


You forgot the "then Southeast to Florida!"
Quoting 645. Gearsts:

CaribBoy will be happy


:-)
Quoting 675. KoritheMan:



When I say that I'm being facetious. When I'm actually forecasting (now), I'm serious.

Stop your slandering. :)


Yeah dont talk down to a model citizen like Kori!
Quoting 667. TropicalAnalystwx13:

In other news, Invest 96W is absolutely massive.


It might get that big eye like the Gfs was predicting.
Quoting 678. VAbeachhurricanes:



Yeah dont talk down to a model citizen like Kori!


You're talking to someone that uses torrents on a semi-regular basis.

What's to model about that? ;)
Quoting 674. Astrometeor:



"its going west to Cayman"

"yep, then north to me in LA"

Do I have to name those two bloggers or can you guys guess?


Hit two birds with one stone
Quoting 681. Drakoen:



Hit two birds with one stone


Now you're picking on me, too?

How long have I been here, Drak?

I thought we were friends! :(
Quoting 671. Astrometeor:



Why does it look weird?

It's a monsoonal depression. These are characterized with huge, symmetrical circulations but a lack of deep convection near the core.
So where is now the question, Bertha on the other hand is what 75% likelihood of happening at this point? A lot more convection possibilities with this too unlike TD2. Maybe a strong TS and then hurricane Bertha East of Bermuda?
685. JRRP
ok a bit to the south
TD2 and the wave behind move further West than the models showed only to be demolished to nothing in the Caribbean. Models showed consistent path North of where they went. Could this next system slip further SW of projections and if it did would it spell death of the system in the Eastern Caribbean?
687. Siker
Quoting JRRP:
ok


I'll bet $10 on the XTRAP, any takers?
Quoting 683. TropicalAnalystwx13:


It's a monsoonal depression. These are characterized with huge, symmetrical circulations but a lack of deep convection near the core.


Does GFS still have it with a gigantic eye?
689. JRRP
06 GMT 07/28/14 10.3N 31.0W 20 1013 Invest
Quoting 685. JRRP:

ok



Hmm...XTRP is pointed at "emergency". Is that some sort of sign that we should be taking, or a mistake by the computer whizzes?
Quoting 687. Siker:



I'll bet $10 on the XTRAP, any takers?


I'd be down for that Venezuela landfall.
692. 7544
Quoting 685. JRRP:

ok a bit south


ok thanks
693. JRRP
AL, 93, 2014072806, , BEST, 0, 103N, 310W, 20, 1013, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 34 42 50 58 66 70 73 76 78
V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 26 31 36 43 51 61 70 75 77
SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.3 26.4 26.8 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.5
SHEAR (KT) 3 4 4 6 7 11 9 10 2 2 10 10 13
700-500 MB RH 62 62 62 62 62 56 54 51 51 50 48 45 45
Quoting 687. Siker:



I'll bet $10 on the XTRAP, any takers?


10/1 please
696. JRRP
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'd be down for that Venezuela landfall.

Bill 2009 was moving WSW as well
Quoting 694. TropicalAnalystwx13:

AL, 93, 2014072806, , BEST, 0, 103N, 310W, 20, 1013, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 34 42 50 58 66 70 73 76 78
V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 26 31 36 43 51 61 70 75 77
SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.3 26.4 26.8 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.5
SHEAR (KT) 3 4 4 6 7 11 9 10 2 2 10 10 13
700-500 MB RH 62 62 62 62 62 56 54 51 51 50 48 45 45



Thank god, ready for a HWRF run
698. JRRP
Quoting 7544:


we hgave invest 93l now ????

yes
Quoting 688. VAbeachhurricanes:



Does GFS still have it with a gigantic eye?

93L is embedded within a deep moisture maximum and overall the Tropical Atlantic looks more moist than it has been.

Quoting 694. TropicalAnalystwx13:

AL, 93, 2014072806, , BEST, 0, 103N, 310W, 20, 1013, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 34 42 50 58 66 70 73 76 78
V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 26 31 36 43 51 61 70 75 77
SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.3 26.4 26.8 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.5
SHEAR (KT) 3 4 4 6 7 11 9 10 2 2 10 10 13
700-500 MB RH 62 62 62 62 62 56 54 51 51 50 48 45 45

Shear looks like it will not be a problem.
Quoting 691. KoritheMan:



I'd be down for that Venezuela landfall.
If Venezuela gets a landfall and I don't even get a scratch, they better prepare for the hissyfit I am going to throw.
30/70 on the 2am TWO.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located about 550 miles southwest of the Cape
Verde Islands is producing a large area of cloudiness and
thunderstorms. Shower activity has increased and become a little
better organized during the past several hours, and environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development
of this disturbance over the next several days while it moves
generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
Quoting 693. JRRP:


I imagine now being an invest it will be at 20%
704. 7544
nhc 30/ 70 % now goin up up .
do we have invest 93L yet
You know, if the Carribean lost some of the bad wind shear it's had all season, this Hurricane season might not be too weak. The SAL dry air is already a great bit lower than it was two weeks ago, and this tropical wave looks really healthy. Conditions seem to be turning more favorable pretty quickly.
708. Siker
How many hours out does the HWRF go? 120?
Invest!, WKC, can't wait to see his diagnosis of this. One will come his way again, but he's O for everything in the last five years. He speaks with authority, but it's like a science teacher who speaks only English trying to teach Latin. You rarely get the right info. I, an enthusiast love his enthusiasm, so I'm not knocking him, just telling it like it is. Sites a blog, okay to be a wishcaster, but at least own up to it. My hand's up for being guilty. :)
711. JRRP
Quoting hurricanes2018:
do we have invest 93L yet

Quoting 707. nwobilderburg:

You know, if the Carribean lost some of the bad wind shear it's had all season, this Hurricane season might not be too weak. The SAL dry air is already a great bit lower than it was two weeks ago, and this tropical wave looks really healthy. Conditions seem to be turning more favorable pretty quickly.


Which is exactly what I've been saying for awhile. Some people were just impatient.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave located about 550 miles southwest of the Cape
Verde Islands is producing a large area of cloudiness and
thunderstorms. Shower activity has increased and become a little
better organized during the past several hours, and environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development
of this disturbance over the next several days while it moves
generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
714. FOREX
Does anyone have WKC's phone number so we can tell him the good news?
Quoting Astrometeor:


"its going west to Cayman"

"yep, then north to me in LA"

Do I have to name those two bloggers or can you guys guess?
Can I add a sideswipe in Alabama before it get to Louisiana, or would that be facetious? :-)
Quoting 714. FOREX:

Does anyone have WKC's phone number so we can tell him the good news?


1-800-HURRICANE4CAYMAN
718. Siker
Quoting FOREX:
Does anyone have WKC's phone number so we can tell him the good news?


Pretty sure it's 555-CAY-MANS.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Which is exactly what I've been saying for awhile. Some people were just impatient.

Yes, August is coming...and then September. We won't know much about October, since the blog will have suffered a fatal meltdown as the WU server farm explodes in flames.
720. Siker
Quoting KoritheMan:


1-800-HURRICANE4CAYMAN


Pfft at least mine has a legitimate amount of digits!
Beautiful weather for Middle TN for the next several days. Yay!



Good night blog. See you guys with (presumably) an update from the good Doc tomorrow (technically today, but whatever).
Quoting 719. sar2401:


Yes, August is coming...and then September. We won't know much about October, since the blog will have suffered a fatal meltdown as the WU server farm explodes in flames.


Wait August wasn't canceled this year?!
Quoting FOREX:
Does anyone have WKC's phone number so we can tell him the good news?

1-888-GOT-WIND.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Wait August wasn't canceled this year?!

Not so far.
Quoting Astrometeor:
Beautiful weather for Middle TN for the next several days. Yay!



Good night blog. See you guys with (presumably) an update from the good Doc tomorrow (technically today, but whatever).

Gee...highs in the 70's. Must be nice. GN. Astro.
How things change quickly. Conditions last week were hostile for td 2 to develop and now it looks like they are more favorable for 93L.
727. FOREX
I know it will not happen, but the Gulf is offering 93L a formal invitation to visit.
Quoting 726. allancalderini:

How things change quickly. Conditions last week were hostile for td 2 to develop and now it looks like they are more favorable for 93L.


Almost like weather isn't a static process and is more of a highly variable unpredictable thermodynamics process.
Wow
30/70%

Quoting DeepSeaRising:
Invest!, WKC, can't wait to see his diagnosis of this. One will come his way again, but he's O for everything in the last five years. He speaks with authority, but it's like a science teacher who speaks only English trying to teach Latin. You rarely get the right info. I, an enthusiast love his enthusiasm, so I'm not knocking him, just telling it like it is. Sites a blog, okay to be a wishcaster, but at least own up to it. My hand's up for being guilty. :)

LOL. Yes, that has happened a few times this season. I don't know about this one. Might make it to TS before it fizzles, either in the Death Zone or out to sea. I'm thinking the August storm behind it might be the real deal. However, my predictions are almost never accurate...
731. TXCWC
GGEM and GFS showing now designated 93L to be strong enough to feel the weakness that should be there in the 7 day time period but 0Z GGEM clearly showing 2 main factors for future track will be strength and timing of East Coast Trough and Bermuda High - too far out to speculate on potential East Coast threat right now though



0Z GEM 180hr


192hr


216hr
732. 7544
Quoting 726. allancalderini:

How things change quickly. Conditions last week were hostile for td 2 to develop and now it looks like they are more favorable for 93L.


and the ones to follow but the big qustion is where will they wind up ?
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Almost like weather isn't a static process and is more of a highly variable unpredictable thermodynamics process.

Wait, I thought that was climate. Now you have me all confused.
SHIPS model shows a 90 MPH hurricane in 5 days with 93L.
Quoting 731. TXCWC:

GGEM and GFS showing now designated 93L to be strong enough to feel the weakness that should be there in the 7 day time period but 0Z GGEM clearly showing 2 main factors for future track will be strength of East Coast Trough and Bermuda High - too far out to speculate on potential East Coast threat right now though



0Z GEM 180hr


192hr


216hr



That's still uncomfortably (or comfortably depending on your personal paradigm) close to the coast, even if it doesn't make landfall.

We can speculate more later. I'm confident the longwave trough will retrograde westward by this point, I just don't know how far west.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Wow
30/70%


I take it your phone rang. :-)
Quoting 736. sar2401:


I take it your phone rang. :-)


Batman never misses his signal
And yes guys I already know we got 93L
Quoting 735. KoritheMan:



That's still uncomfortably (or comfortably depending on your personal paradigm) close to the coast, even if it doesn't make landfall.

We can speculate more later. I'm confident the longwave trough will retrograde westward by this point, I just don't know how far west.


Guess this is where I will be so hoping you are proving your forecast chops.
Quoting 727. FOREX:

I know it will not happen, but the Gulf is offering 93L a formal invitation to visit.


There has been a persistent weakness over the last week over the Central Gulf between the Bermuda High and its extension and High Pressure ridging in from Mexico. Currently have a small Surface High over the C. gulf Moving westward. I think the biggest change that would need to happen is to get rid of Troughiness over the E. Conus so a ridge could build and allow overall pressures to drop in the Carib. a mb or two.
Quoting 734. dfwstormwatch:

SHIPS model shows a 90 MPH hurricane in 5 days with 93L.

Note: The LGEM guidance also shows a 90 MPH hurricane.
Quoting 736. sar2401:


I take it your phone rang. :-)

Actually no I got a text from a friend of mine at NHC

And what the hell is everyone is calling me for geez
Looks like a real possibility of the likely Bertha reaching the sweet spot in the Bahamas. Could get real interesting if this happens. Usually gets troughed OTS, but when it doesn't then we know anything can happen.
Quoting dfwstormwatch:

Note: The LGEM guidance also shows a 90 MPH hurricane.

That's probably because both the LGEM and SHIPS use the same input. SHIPS also has near zero accuracy on intensity beyond three days.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Actually no I got a text from a friend of mine at NHC

And what the hell is everyone is calling me for geez

Wait...a friend at the NHC? Is it anyone we might know?
746. FOREX
Quoting 743. DeepSeaRising:

Looks like a real possibility of the likely Bertha reaching the sweet spot in the Bahamas. Could get real interesting if this happens. Usually gets troughed OTS, but when it doesn't then we know anything can happen.


Arthur 2??
WKC, while many of us may give you a hard time, it's a sign your name is "on the street". You are knowledgeable and bring some character to the blog. You've been through some really bad ones, as you've articulated, so you know it's no laughing matter. Speculation if fun, but under the gun of a major, not so much. Glad to have you here.
I bet not many people are going to see this, but I had some pretty awesome weather yesterday. The potential for severe thunderstorms had been in the forecast for a few days and the potential got realized in the afternoon. 2 clusters of severe thunderstorms developed around Lansing, MI in the early to mid afternoon hours. These 2 clusters merged into 2 separate storms as they moved into Livingston County (The county to my west). The storms were generally moving off to the east until they got into Eastern Livingston County when they moved more to the ESE. It looked like my house wouldn't get any storms while area to the north and south did. With this in mind, my dad and I decided to intercept one of these cells. I choose the northern cell since I knew the area that it would impact better and could reach that storm quicker. I'm in far SE Oakland County and moved to the north by about 10 miles to get in a better position. Of course, we made sure we were as safe as possible and made sure not to be in any heavily forested areas or be in a position to get struck by lightning. Anyway, we got impacted by 60-70mph winds and hail between pea and quarter size. It was my first time seeing severe hail, or any hail for that matter, in over 2 years. After we got hit we started heading back home and saw several large limbs down near I75. As we were getting hit by that storm, my house also got hit by severe winds and small hail. The storms had built southward some and that portion had become severe by the time it hit my house. There were numerous large limbs and trees down a 2-3 miles east of my house with just a couple large limbs down by my home. Also saw a roll cloud heading south on my way from my house to a line off to the west. That same line weakened when we got there, but became an extreme rain producer. After waiting the rain out we headed home after my first successful "mini-chase". A few pictures of what I saw are below this.




In total, 180,000+ DTE Energy customers were without power due to the severe storms. Consumers Energy reported at least another 20,000 customers. The NWS Detroit/Pontiac office issued a combined total of 33 severe weather (tornado, severe thunderstorm, and special marine) warnings in a 5 hour period. All 17 DTX counties were under a warning of some sorts at one point today. There were reports of hail up to baseball size or greater around Midland, MI and numerous reports of hail and wind damage in Oakland County. One thing that bothered me was that the civil defense sirens went off twice when I don't think they should have. This first time was during when the severe storms were impacting the area. Oakland Counties policy is to sound the sirens during a tornado warning or a severe thunderstorm warning for 70mph+ wind gusts. I don't remember seeing 70mph+ wind gusts in the warning for SE Oakland County. The second time was AFTER the storms had passed and the warning had been cancelled. This was when the roll cloud was moving closer, but that is something that shouldn't trigger the need for the sirens. I truly don't know why they went off the second time.



Quoting 731. TXCWC:

GGEM and GFS showing now designated 93L to be strong enough to feel the weakness that should be there in the 7 day time period but 0Z GGEM clearly showing 2 main factors for future track will be strength and timing of East Coast Trough and Bermuda High - too far out to speculate on potential East Coast threat right now though



0Z GEM 180hr


192hr


216hr



I SEE TWO round thing on your weather map is that GOING TO BE invest 94L TO.
750. JRRP
At least I can go to sleep knowing 93L won't be my coveted hurricane chase.

In due time. I'm still feeling good about the 500 mb pattern returning to a more normal regime this year instead of continued troughing.
Quoting 747. DeepSeaRising:

WKC, while many of us may give you a hard time, it's a sign your name is "on the street". You are knowledgeable and bring some character to the blog. You've been through some really bad ones, as you've articulated, so you know it's no laughing matter. Speculation if fun, but under the gun of a major, not so much. Glad to have you here.


Oh well thank you
753. TXCWC
African wave train loading up heading into August
img src=" photo 5e36791a-2117-4bf8-9d14-82276faa017d_zpsdc1ce180.jpg">
intensity over three days is never right on hurricanes or tropical storms.. this like Post-Tropical Cyclone GENEVIEVE
Hello, hello.... El Nino? Is El nino there? NO? Can you put SAL on the telephone please?


757. JRRP
759. JRRP
is back
Quoting 759. JRRP:

is back

??
761. JRRP
Quoting Gearsts:
??


that web was out for several days
Quoting 759. JRRP:

is back


Comparing 18 to 00 trend is S and W
Also more entering Caribbean
Well, I am back and its been about three-four years since I last participated in a discussion.....See Drak, Storm Junkie are still around and a couple of others, so good you are still out there.....question for the blog and need a estimate, folks, because of my next door neighbor travel to Puerto Rico on Saturday, 2 August 2014 and staying there with wife and kid for a week of snorkeling and diving: When and if, would 93L be likely to show up around Puerto Rico and how long could it effect the island and nearby waters around the island? I know this is a stretch to ask for such a prediction but I would like to let them to start keeping an eye on this website or the Weather Channel as the week progresses. Would appreciate the feedback....any by the way it was hot in Fort Worth yesterday but looks like it will be cooler this week....Thnx
Hey TH, welcome back. Still a lot of "when/If" with this system, but it is looking like the 5-8 day range? So between the 2nd and 5th? No real telling how close it will get to PR at this point. In a day or two if there is a llc to track, then hopefully the picture for the islands will get clearer.
Quoting 756. sunlinepr:

Hello, hello.... El Nino? Is El nino there? NO? Can you put SAL on the telephone please?





Lol we got enough SAL in june/july, it's time for a change :-) It's so dry here.
CMC Track is nice, good rain for PR too.
Quoting 767. CaribBoy:

CMC Track is nice, good rain for PR too.
A lot less dry air than there was in the basin.

06z GFS has started to come out.

Quoting 757. JRRP:


Future Bertha looking large...
Day light on the cloud mass...

Quoting 774. Gearsts:




GFS is less ambitious with strength of the system this run. It also seems to retrograde the trough just a little more. Going to be interesting to see how this plays out in the coming days. 93 sure has a nice envelope to work with.
Quoting 777. StormJunkie:



GFS is less ambitious with strength of the system this run. It also seems to retrograde the trough just a little more. Going to be interesting to see how this plays out in the coming days. 93 sure has a nice envelope to work with.
Model is a little to the left on this run very close to PR.
Just so it's clear...I watch the model trends even after 144hrs even though they aren't reliable, they can give insight to potential conditions. And honestly, between the tropical "chatter" and the trends set but run after run; we end up with a very reliable 3-5 day track forecast.


we need to watch this tropical wave to its got a spin to it.



DMAX and also i have to say this wave looks better than any wave last year by far.
Quoting 780. Gearsts:

Model is a llitle to the left on this run very close to PR.


Yep, it is a little left. The last run was also a little left. Make no mistake, I don't think this thing goes anywhere near the central Carib...but the E coast should at least keep an eye on it. How much that trough retrogrades is going to play a big factor. How fast the AB high can push back will also play a big factor.

From the Charleston NWS...
THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BRINGING WITH IT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

I would be shocked if models changed to show the system charge through the Carib. i would not be shocked if it got awfully close to the OBX before it's all said and done.
Quoting 784. StormJunkie:



Yep, it is a little left. The last run was also a little left. Make no mistake, I don't think this thing goes anywhere near the central Carib...but the E coast should at least keep an eye on it. How much that trough retrogrades is going to play a big factor. How fast the AB high can push back will also play a big factor.

From the Charleston NWS...
THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BRINGING WITH IT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

I would be shocked if models changed to show the system charge through the Carib. i would not be shocked if it got awfully close to the OBX before it's all said and done.
Only way it enters the CARIB is if the system stays weak as a Twave.
Trough showing much more retrograding in this run...



Also a much weaker system. Well defined vorticity, but weaker.
Very interesting
788. PR51
Perhaps this will be the last chance to end this extreme drought season in PR in decades. If future TS turns to the right and goes to fish then we will be in big problems... Our main water reservoirs just have supply for another 15-20 days without serious imposed shortages. Let's see what the nature does?
Trough pulled back, but high did not rebuild enough to push it W. Still consistent with a path near Bermuda.



OBX should still keep an eye on this one in my opinion. But right now prevailing model support says it will either hit Bermuda, or shoot the gap.
Quoting 783. Gearsts:

DMAX and also i have to say this wave looks better than any wave last year by far.



I say since 2010.
Great model support
793. SLU
794. beell
Current CIMSS 850 mb Relative Vorticity (left), and -6 hrs (right)

(click for larger images)
795. SLU
I've pegged the center at 9n 32w. Further south than 6z.

LOL
Quoting 795. SLU:

I've pegged the center at 9n 32w. Further south than z.


What that means for us here in Puerto Rico?
Quoting 796. Gearsts:

LOL

Why you lol on this?
Quoting 797. prcane4you:

What that means for us here in Puerto Rico?
Nothing
better than typhoon lagoon. this storm is setting up to be that one


maybe a T.D in 30 hours from now
Quoting 801. hurricanes2018:



maybe a T.D in 30 hours from now
It shows a TS by 30 hours
I just notice is south of 10n
new update soon at 8pm the % will go up!!
Quoting 795. SLU:

I've pegged the center at 9n 32w. Further south than 6z.




The further south,more is a threat to Lesser Antilles/PR.
Quoting 805. Tropicsweatherpr:



The further south,more is a threat to Lesser Antilles/PR.
Too much further south,less threat
Quoting 806. prcane4you:

Too much further south,less threat
Not much off a center to track yet.
post it on their islands bulletin board. "carib boy wishcasted this hurricane" . wonder if there would be a salem witch hunt?
Quoting 808. islander101010:

post it on their islands bulletin board. "carib boy wishcasted this hurricane" . wonder if there would be a salem witch hunt?
Caribboy just want rains not a direct hit
93L is really coming nicely together.
Quoting 808. islander101010:

post it on their islands bulletin board. "carib boy wishcasted this hurricane" . wonder if there would be a salem witch hunt?
He's doing his hurricane dance as we speak.
invest 93L TO tropical storm with winds 50 mph in 60 hours from now..
Our first real twave of the season and just like that the Atlantic is once again active. What is also interesting with 93L is the fact that the dry air between the lesser Antilles and Africa has diminish considerably since TD02 which help moisten the path for this wave. Currently this is forecast to craze the northern Antilles for all our eastern Caribbean bloggers although it could be at the expense of a strong tropical storm or hurricane before recurving ots. Its way too early to suggest this will shoot the weakness between the high. There is still the factor that in the latest runs are showing the trough weakening and backing up which will leave the system at the discretion of the high. The SE US needs to watch this carefully this week.
Quoting 804. hurricanes2018:

new update soon at 8pm the % will go up!!

8am?
Quoting 811. Climate175:

93L is really coming nicely together.
As always a trof will be in charge.So turn to the right and to the fish we go again


invest 93L TO tropical storm with winds 60 mph in 70 hours from now..
818. beell
Strong upper divergence over and ahead of 93L. This large scale loss of mass in the upper levels should result in increasing surface convergence today and allow pressures to fall at the surface.


07/28 09Z CIMSS mid-upper level winds
Quoting 816. prcane4you:

As always a trof will be in charge.So turn to the right and to the fish we go again
Does it need to affect land for it to be interesting? I am confused why people are upset if it going out to sea. I am not trying to be rude or anything but why is that?
Good Morning
Quoting 812. Gearsts:

He's doing his hurricane dance as we speak.

Caribboy we have no other choice but Lol.Sorry
Quoting 814. Ricki13th:

Our first real twave of the season and just like that the Atlantic is once an active. What is also interesting with 93L is the fact that the dry air between the lesser Antilles and Africa has diminish considerably since TD02 which help moisten the path for this wave. Currently this forecast to craze the northern Antilles for all our eastern Caribbean bloggers although it could be at the expense of a strong tropical storm or hurricane before recurving ots. Its way too early to suggest this will shoot the weakness between the high. There is still the factor that in the latest runs that trough will be weakening and backing up which will leave the system at the discretion of the high. The SE US needs to watch this carefully this week.
u are 100% right!
"I had a wind gust
a wind gust yesterday morning

Bertha dont you come around here anymore"

-J. Garcia, circa 1975
Quoting 818. beell:

Strong upper divergence over and ahead of 93L. This large scale loss of mass in the upper levels should result in increasing surface convergence today and allow pressures to fall at the surface.


07/28 09Z CIMSS mid-upper level winds


Conditions are quite favorable for this system a complete 180 from the time TD02 was around its all about timing. Likely code red (60%) at the TWO.
Quoting 816. prcane4you:

As always a trof will be in charge.So turn to the right and to the fish we go again

If it hits the islands it will be no fish. everyone eventually recurves all a matter of where it happens.
This might come very close to east coast before recurving. Looking at long range, the trough starts to retreat and the AB high starts to build in towards the west. If this future cyclone decides it wants to take its time, it may be a east coast player with time. Gonna be close
829. SLU
Quoting 805. Tropicsweatherpr:



The further south,more is a threat to Lesser Antilles/PR.


Yes this isn't going north of the Caribbean. Even the GFS now has it hitting the NE Caribbean.
Quoting 819. Climate175:

Does it need to affect land for it to be interesting? I am confused why people are upset if it going out to sea. I am not trying to be rude or anything but why is that?
Quoting 826. sporteguy03:


If it hits the islands it will be no fish. everyone eventually recurves all a matter of where it happens.
Yes they always recurve somewhere,this one before reach the islands.
Quoting 829. SLU:



Yes this isn't going north of the Caribbean. Even the GFS now has it hitting the NE Caribbean.
GFS send me the lotto numbers for next week.
So far no significant changes that I've seen to bump changes on 93L yet.

850MB VORT still shows it as being attached to the ITCZ:



500MB VORT shows its mid level VORT displaced to the N around 15N:



I would still keep it at 30% but no more than 40%(if based on cloud presentation).
Quoting 830. prcane4you:

Yes they always recurve somewhere,this one before reach the islands.


Nope, this one will more than likely hit the islands
93L...

fish= a atlantic born storm that does not hit the conus sorry boriquens
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cape
Verde Islands is producing disorganized cloudiness and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development of this disturbance over the next
several days while it moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cape
Verde Islands is producing disorganized cloudiness and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development of this disturbance over the next
several days while it moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Quoting 834. GeoffreyWPB:

93L...



Looks more like a Pacific monsoonal type system quite impressive.
Quoting islander101010:
fish= a atlantic born storm that does not hit the conus


or the Caribbean Islands, Central America, Mexico, etc.

Good Morning.  Impressed with the look of the Atlantic wave this morning. I honestly did not think it would develop before reaching the Antilles because of day air issues.  Now we have to see what happens the next few days.  It must bring/pull the current moisture envelope with it out of the ITCZ as it gains latitude. At the same time, increased organization will pull in dry air from the North into the circulation.  However, looking very good at the moment, firing persistent convection, and model consensus for development.   
841. SLU
000
ABNT20 KNHC 281137
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cape
Verde Islands is producing disorganized cloudiness and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development of this disturbance over the next
several days while it moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
As a side note... based on the propagation of this Kelvin Wave (moving across the Carib. at this time) I would expect a noted increase in organization in 93L once it gets between 40W and 50W.

Good morning from the US East Coast.. thanks all for the great infographics and discussion on our new invest - I'm excited to start getting (somewhat) serious tracking tropical storms. I continue to learn a lot from Dr. Masters and this community, so keep up the great conversation!
Quoting 839. Sfloridacat5:



or the Caribbean Islands, Central America, Mexico, etc.


Out to sea....fish.No matter where is born,so keep tracking your fish.
Good morning..

NCEP ensembles are back..

00z run-06z run is still running..

Would finally note, pending Dr. M's outlook later, that it is firing nice convection in the center of the large area; it's a "big" wave and that may help insulate the core/axis in the short term as it tries to reach depression status over the next 72-96 hours.

In terms of track, we know the drill; too early to speculate and if dry air keeps it check, it will trend further west; if it can reach depression/ts status before reaching the Antilles, better chance for the "turn" into Hebert Box 1 territory or out to sea.  Just way to early to know what will happen.  See Yall later today.
Watch out for possible Bertha!

She might turn north into the ATL, with all the troughs. Currently the 3rd cold front/dry line of July, is moving southward to the Gulf Coast. But, it is way to early to speculate, and she could also go more westerly into the SE USA, after a brush with the Carrib!
Quoting 849. ncstorm:

Good morning..

NCEP ensembles are back..

00z run-06z run is still running..


As we see born in the Atlantic,recurve in the Atlantic before reach the islands= fish
img src="
Quoting prcane4you:
Out to sea....fish.No matter where is born,so keep tracking your fish.


A fish storm does not affect land. If the storm goes through the Caribbean and affects the people living in the islands, it's not a "fish" storm.

For some reason some people think "fish" storm means it doesn't hit the U.S.


I see a spin to this tropical wave
Hey wait a second! A tropical wave that looks like one you may see in the Western Pacific?!......................................... In the Atlantic?!!

(8^()

Its not 2013 anymore! (:^D
Based on the 06z models, the system goes right through the northern Leeward Islands. This can definitely change with future model runs.
I hope the wave keeps going westward
Nothing like waking up to a new invest. And the fact that the NHC thinks it has a 30% chance of NOT developing in 5 days.

Really depends on where this storm heads as to how strong it gets.



But definately a happy sight for bloggers to see something out there. lol
All the current model runs will change over time; people forget that their trajectories depict an actual "storm" moving around the a-b high. If the storm/TD forms earlier or later than depicted/initialized in these early runs, then we have to do it all over again (and we will multiple times between now and Friday).
Good morning everybody I think this has a decent shot of going out to sea but it's really to far away to know for sure....we need to wait until it gets past the Islands to call it a sea runner


Join the party CPAC. :P
Isn't 10 degrees north a little off track for the ITCZ? I thought 10 was far enough to start generating sustained spin.
I know it is summer and this is the time for it to ride north of the equator, but seeing it so close to a Low with invest potential surprised me.
Does it ever drift north and become a successional series of serious storm generation?
I showed this yesterday, but it shows how the area just off the East Coast has the highest probability of seeing a tropical system.

Based on current model runs, 93L is going to fall right into this pattern.

Quoting 853. Sfloridacat5:

img src="

A fish storm does not affect land. If the storm goes through the Caribbean and affects the people living in the islands, it's not a "fish" storm.

For some reason some people think "fish" storm means it doesn't hit the U.S.


Thank you you said the Same thing I was going two say
6Z GFS ensembles..I'll be back periodically..work calls..

the models seem to want to diverge after the Leeward islands..the recurve spread is not so east anymore..









with some at Florida east coast and riding up the coast




Quoting ncstorm:
6Z GFS ensembles..I'll be back periodically..work calls..

the models seem to want to diverge after the Leeward islands..the recurve spread is not so east anymore..









with some at Florida east coast and riding up the coast






We'll have to watch and see if a pattern forms such as a westward shift in future model runs.

We know things will change. We just don't know if the change will be a more westerly track or a more easterly track.

We've seen plenty of system that shifted a little to the west with each new model run. Next thing you know the system ends up in the GOM headed towards New Orleans.
Quoting 858. JrWeathermanFL:

Nothing like waking up to a new invest. And the fact that the NHC thinks it has a 30% chance of NOT developing in 5 days.

Really depends on where this storm heads as to how strong it gets.



But definately a happy sight for bloggers to see something out there. lol



Don't beg for death and destruction....
Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch
Tropical Disturbance 13 is located near 10N/36W and is moving west near 12 mph. The associated squalls have increased and the potential for development is now 30 percent over the next 48 hours, and 80 percent over the next next 5 days. Most computer guidance brings this system into the central to northern Lesser Antilles as a depression or minimal tropical storm as early as late Friday, and as late as midday next Monday. The European model continues to keep the system as a weak disturbance. The most likely track is to the northern Leeward and Virgin Islands, followed by a northward turn into the open Atlantic as it passes north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.


Courtesy Impact Weather
Good morning, good to be back from New Orleans!
871. JRRP
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR
11N16W AND THEN CONTINUES ALONG 9N26W TO 9N40W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N40W TO 8N50W
TO 6N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO COME OFF THE AFRICAN COAST IS
FROM 5N-13N E OF 18W.

(Location of ICTZ is given on each Tropical Weather Discussion fron NHC)
Quoting 868. bryanfromkyleTX:



Don't beg for death and destruction....


When did I do that?
93L is developing sustained amount of spin to its low pressure center. Low level clouds on the eastern side of the circulation suggests this low is trying to close off. Indicative of this procedure and continued probable great dynamics in divergent flow aloft and convergent flow at the surface, indicates to me that the 850mb vorticity will indeed get stronger with time and the surface low will intensify as its currently over 28C waters and its current southern latitude keeps it within a moist envelope and warmer SSTs. I think a track through the US Virgin Islands is likely and then northeast of Puerto Rico and then into the Bahamas followed by a turn to the northwest towards the Outer Banks of NC or further up the East Coast as a formidable hurricane. I think Bertha peaks at 140mph.
Tropical Wave nearing the 20w longitude line and 10-15n latitude line indicates to me further development is likely. Just as with the lead tropical wave, this wave is also in a good climatological state of coming up on August and CV season is opened for business. This wave has decent spin to it and should be considered an Invest by Wednesday. Although currently there is weak model support for such development, conditions remain favorable for development as there remains just upper level divergent flow overhead for the foreseeable future.
Quoting 868. bryanfromkyleTX:



Don't beg for death and destruction....
He is just stating facts, he doesn't want death or destruction.


850MB VORT went up!! more yellow
Quoting 867. GeoffreyWPB:


Whoa, that's a big 'un. Hoping it stays a big sloppy unorganized mess and gives the islands some much needed rain.
there is an invest...i can hear the excitement from here.
yesterday i saw a commercial advertising a product. then they said this product help protect them from hurricane sandy. it turns my stomach to watch companies make a profit by using a natural disaster to promote it. it makes no sense to me.
Quoting 854. hurricanes2018:



I see a spin to this tropical wave
I am starting to see a spin there
That is one remarkably robust looking tropical wave. Looks like a lot of the dry air out north and west of its current position is mixing out, could be a winner this time around.
More upper level anticyclonic or divergent pattern aloft indicative of a more favorable environment for tropical waves to become tropical cyclones over the MDR. Upper level divergent air mixing out dry air aloft, provides perfect environment with low shear and less dry air for tropical waves to blossom, especially if they stay south of 12n between 20w and 55w.
Quoting 882. nofailsafe:

That is one remarkably robust looking tropical wave. Looks like a lot of the dry air out north and west of its current position is mixing out, could be a winner this time around.


Look at the monster low over the Northeast and Mid Atlantic States.
12z Best Track.

AL, 93, 2014072812, , BEST, 0, 100N, 325W, 20, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WATERS WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 19N39W TO 8N36W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES EMBEDDED IN THE
DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER WHICH IS INHIBITING CONVECTION N OF 14N.
SOUTH OF 14N...THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS IN A DEEP
LAYER MOIST ENVIRONMENT WHICH ALONG UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 26W-
41W. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE.
SEE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM
19N85W TO 8N86W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WHICH ALONG
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 18N W OF 81W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR
11N16W AND THEN CONTINUES ALONG 9N26W TO 9N40W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N40W TO 8N50W
TO 6N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO COME OFF THE AFRICAN COAST IS
FROM 5N-13N E OF 18W. THE OTHER AREA OF CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. SEE ABOVE FOR
DETAILS.


low 1007 on land
Some dry air in the mid-levels from about 300-600 mb. between 12N & 14N.

Quoting 886. hurricanes2018:

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WATERS WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 19N39W TO 8N36W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES EMBEDDED IN THE
DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER WHICH IS INHIBITING CONVECTION N OF 14N.
SOUTH OF 14N...THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS IN A DEEP
LAYER MOIST ENVIRONMENT WHICH ALONG UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 26W-
41W. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE.
SEE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM
19N85W TO 8N86W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WHICH ALONG
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 18N W OF 81W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR
11N16W AND THEN CONTINUES ALONG 9N26W TO 9N40W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N40W TO 8N50W
TO 6N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO COME OFF THE AFRICAN COAST IS
FROM 5N-13N E OF 18W. THE OTHER AREA OF CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. SEE ABOVE FOR
DETAILS.


low 1007 on land
That low will likely develop, models don't show it now but I feel they will soon.
Quoting 886. hurricanes2018:

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WATERS WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 19N39W TO 8N36W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES EMBEDDED IN THE
DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER WHICH IS INHIBITING CONVECTION N OF 14N.
SOUTH OF 14N...THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS IN A DEEP
LAYER MOIST ENVIRONMENT WHICH ALONG UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 26W-
41W. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE.
SEE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM
19N85W TO 8N86W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WHICH ALONG
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 18N W OF 81W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR
11N16W AND THEN CONTINUES ALONG 9N26W TO 9N40W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N40W TO 8N50W
TO 6N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO COME OFF THE AFRICAN COAST IS
FROM 5N-13N E OF 18W. THE OTHER AREA OF CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. SEE ABOVE FOR
DETAILS.


low 1007 on land


Strong tropical wave, with decent spin already near 20w and around 10-15n. Some of the wave axis is over land still, but its coming along pretty well.
Good morning all... we have something to work with this week I'm sure.
70% chance of developing in 5 days...


A healthy looking one just rolled off.

Sprinkled here for a few minutes. 30% chance today forecast. Had Internet issues here for the last 3-4 Days. Good to have it back.
Quoting 892. GTstormChaserCaleb:

A healthy looking one just rolled off.




This wave could actually become Bertha before the wave near 33w. What would be the case if that happened? Probably nothing much, might go out to the fishes as 33w wave gets through the NE Caribbean Islands and moves northeast of PR.
Quoting 868. bryanfromkyleTX:



Don't beg for death and destruction....


Hurricanes have been going on for centuries .... forever. It is man who recently decided to build up, and over-develop the barrier islands, beaches, and coastal areas. Creating evacuation nightmares.....
gfs still says recurve,but something to watch for any change in track this coming week huh..........
Quoting 882. nofailsafe:

That is one remarkably robust looking tropical wave. Looks like a lot of the dry air out north and west of its current position is mixing out, could be a winner this time around.
s is this the wave that is implicated in the plane crash? Iink donna had the same history. th
Fun fact of the morning. The last time the first 2 named storms became a hurricane was 1992. Hurricane Andrew and Hurricane Bonnie.
Good morning, everyone. Just one question:

Why is Monday a thing?
Quoting 896. LargoFl:

gfs still says recurve,but something to watch for any change in track this coming week huh..........


The GEFS ensemble has a 500 mb low over the east coast shifting to the southeast for the duration of its run, here's the 144 hr frame:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gf s-ens/2014072806/gfs-ens_z500a_atl_25.png


Full Run:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gf s-ens/2014072806/gfs-ens_z500a_atl.html
901. JRRP
Quoting 896. LargoFl:

gfs still says recurve,but something to watch for any change in track this coming week huh..........


Hey Largo, all we have to do is look at our own weather and that is a significant indicator. We have been in a SW flow for a month. Unless that pattern changes, any system coming from that direction is going to recurve and that is what the models are saying right now.
Is anyone using the FIM model for tropical predicion, or is it still experimental?
latest run

6z
905. MahFL
Quoting 904. ncstorm:

latest run


Some of those tracks are a lot closer to FL....


Yeah, sorry fishcasters.

If this pans out...
its still july! going to be a early start. nature is trying to catch up to average because by sept el nino will put its hands over the atlantic
Quoting 904. ncstorm:

latest run

6z

One thing I notice is the low latitude it's going to form at. Then when I look at the trajectory of the tracks it looks more like a smooth curve and not a sharp one.
Looks like the modes runs are putting the USA more in play
The ITCZ is shown running to the coast of Guyana,just south of 10N. If the disturbance stays relatively weak it could stay closer to the ITCZ more towards the southern islands/ a more southerly guidance before gaining Lat'. Next 48 hours will reveal more on future track

Quoting 907. islander101010:

its still july! going to be a early start. nature is trying to catch up to average because by sept el nino will put its hands over the atlantic



I don't think will see El Nino this season not any more there for I think will see more name storms then what I was 1st thinking
Quoting 907. islander101010:

its still july! going to be a early start. nature is trying to catch up to average because by sept el nino will put its hands over the atlantic
July is pretty much almost done, 3 more days. Here we go August.
913. JRRP
Quoting 910. superpete:

The ITCZ is shown running to the coast of Guyana,just south of 10N. If the disturbance stays relatively weak it could stay closer to the ITCZ more towards the southern islands/ a more southerly guidance before gaining Lat'. Next 48 hours will reveal more on future track


That means my folks are getting a lot of rains. I agree with your logic, in addition the more disorganized the storm stays the more south and west of a path it will take. In fact, if it fails to gain any significant latitude it could miss the trough all together and then will have a new ballgame.
All the troughs that have been moving across the east will have a say in whether it goes out to sea.
Timing will be everything
93L is 6 to 7 days from going out to sea and i know how everything can change! Hurricane Ike was forecast to go out to sea and we know what happened.
Quoting 916. washingtonian115:

If I didn't know any better looks like some people are wanting this to come closer to the u.s...


As always, people like the excitement, even if it means death and destruction. All a part of the human psyche


Possible type of track/intensity...Just north of the Antilles and then a brush by Bermuda on its way to peak intensity racing up to Canada. Basically what the GFS shows.



If the storm doesn't turn, then this is possible...Runs into the Caribbean Death Wall or something.

Quoting 919. STORMW2014:



As always, people like the excitement, even if it means death and destruction. All a part of the human psyche


Oh yeah. Love me some death and destruction.
Cause I'm a human.
Regarding 93L CMC shows that at least the needed rains will come to E Carib- especially Puerto Rico. That is welcome news. Hopefully 93L will not show up as a hurricane at their doorstep.
Hey........................Baha ya think it's time to dust off the shutters??
924. JRRP
Quoting 916. washingtonian115:
If I didn't know any better looks like some people are wanting this to come closer to the u.s...


It's always been like that on this blog. Always gloom and doom and anything less than worst case scenario will not be accepted.
UKMET is on board.



927. MahFL
Quoting 919. STORMW2014:



As always, people like the excitement, even if it means death and destruction. All a part of the human psyche


It's more exciting if they make landfall in the US. The folks that live at the coast know the risks...
Nobody knows how the AB High will impact 93L's progress in 7 days.
Quoting 916. washingtonian115:

If I didn't know any better looks like some people are wanting this to come closer to the u.s...


Quoting 904. ncstorm:

latest run

6z


I saw a lots of the weather modeles right next to the east coast now.
Quoting LargoFl:
gfs still says recurve,but something to watch for any change in track this coming week huh..........
Living in the Caribbean my whole life, my guess is this would be a classic CV storm, high probabilities it should affect the northern Islands, including PR directly or indirectly, depending when it starts gaining latitude, smoothly,not sharply,like hurricane Dean,(August 4-5,1985) following the weakness on the high around 60W...


000
NOUS42 KNHC 281345
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT MON 28 JULY 2014
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z JULY 2014
TCPOD NUMBER.....14-058

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 13N 52W AT 31/1730Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

$$
JWP

360 hr GFS 12 August
Wave nearing 20w and 10-15n is showing a modest amount of spin to it now, indicative of a strengthening surface low present in the low levels. Also divergent pattern aloft or anticyclonic flow aloft indicative of an intensification pattern for a tropical low pressure center. I think Bertha can become of this wave first given how quickly its developing spin to its convection, likely because its closer to 10n than our 33.5w disturbance.
Quoting rmbjoe1954:
Regarding 93L CMC shows that at least the needed rains will come to E Carib- especially Puerto Rico. That is welcome news. Hopefully 93L will not show up as a hurricane at their doorstep.
Agree, fingers close, it would provide the needed rain. Of course, it will be August, and for Puerto Rico, it means to be cautious, in case it becomes an stronger system...
Quoting 908. GTstormChaserCaleb:

One thing I notice is the low latitude it's going to form at. Then when I look at the trajectory of the tracks it looks more like a smooth curve and not a sharp one.


Still a ways out but looks like people in PR need to keep a lookout on 93L
I'm probably wrong but I think the storm will go more westward infact look at what Isaac was suposed to do it was forecasted to be a fish and it ended up making landfall in new orleans
look how big this invest is getting!! I mean the size!!
Atlantic disturbance is consolidating nicely. The low-level circulations appears to be colocated with the dense area of thunderstorms near 10 north. Definitely something to monitor closely -- especially folks in the northern lesser Antilles. Blessings to all!
StormHunter
Quoting 943. weatherman994:

I'm probably wrong but I think the storm will go more westward infact look at what Isaac was suposed to do it was forecasted to be a fish and it ended up making landfall in new orleans


I don't see the Azores/Bermuda high being that intense this go around and I especially don't see any troughs in the near future drying up before they reach the eastern Seaboard. So right now I think retrogression in the mean trough orientation is quite possible therefore a mean track towards the East Coast would be most likely, especially with the CPC's day 6-10 outlook in temps favoring more of a central US trough with warmer temps in New England indicative of a high pressure extension in that region. So right now anything is on the cards, except for a Caribbean Sea Cruiser or GOM tracking storm.
Excerpt from Puerto Rico NWS Disco...

ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...A TROPICAL WAVE ROUGHLY
AROUND 10 NORTH AND 31 WEST...OR AROUND 550 MILES TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...HAS A 30 PERCENT OF DEVELOPING IN TO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A 70 PERCENT WITHIN THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PRECISE JUST HOW MUCH OR EVEN IF
THIS WAVE WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA AS A WAVE OR TROPICAL
CYCLONE...IF AT ALL. THERE IS JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THE
TIME AND THERE IS GREAT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GLOBAL MODELS. GFS
MODEL DEVELOPS IT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND TRACKS IT TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL DOES NOT DO
ANYTHING WITH IT. WE ARE OBSERVING THE TROPICAL WAVE CLOSELY AND
ITS EVOLUTION...BUT IT IS JUST TOO EARLY YET TO PRECISE HOW OR
EVEN IF THIS WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA.
93L..
950. VR46L
Quoting 943. weatherman994:

I'm probably wrong but I think the storm will go more westward infact look at what Isaac was suposed to do it was forecasted to be a fish and it ended up making landfall in new orleans


You maybe right if you look at the NHC Isaac Graphics its moved significantly west of original prediction NHC Isaac track gft
951. JRRP

On it's way to the next Hurricane of the season.
I think there is some outflow restrictions on the northeast quadrant of our developing tropical wave and low pressure center, with excellent outflow in the northwestern, southwestern, and southeastern quadrants. Highly favorable outflow pattern with divergent flow aloft lends me to believe in the fact that low level convergence is increasing the size of the convective canopy and size of the overall system, even though the surface low might be small in general.
Quoting blooflame:
Is anyone using the FIM model for tropical predicion, or is it still experimental?

It is still experimental. Something to look at but it's all the models coming into agreement, never just one. We don't know winners until the storm is over.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
On it's way to the next Hurricane of the season.

Although let me remind people that intensity models more than three days out after a storm has formed are nearly worthless. They are totally worthless right now.
Looks like it might be a pretty good sized system.
957. SLU
Wow I see that comment was removed, nothing in that was even personal, with that said I have things to do today. You all enjoy the rest of your afternoon, and don't let certain bloggers ruin your enjoyment of this blog because of their bad mood.
I know. i was just saying that i think it will be the next Hurricane of the season
Quoting 955. sar2401:


Although let me remind people that intensity models more than three days out after a storm has formed are nearly worthless. They are totally worthless right now.
850mb vorticity associated with the wave emerging from the coast of Africa is very intense, more intense then our wave nearing 33.5w. So right now I see more turning with our west Africa wave over the ocean and maintenance of convection. So right now this wave should be colored. However I think the NHC wants to see a longer persistence of convection since this wave just emerged into the Ocean. This wave does have a more favorable environment shear wise to get the job done intensifying into a tropical cyclone, while the wave nearing 33.5w has a displaced upper level anticyclone to its east causing some shear near the center of circulation. This needs to be watched carefully as shear can be more detrimental than dry air issues.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Excerpt from Puerto Rico NWS Disco...

ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...A TROPICAL WAVE ROUGHLY
AROUND 10 NORTH AND 31 WEST...OR AROUND 550 MILES TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...HAS A 30 PERCENT OF DEVELOPING IN TO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A 70 PERCENT WITHIN THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PRECISE JUST HOW MUCH OR EVEN IF
THIS WAVE WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA AS A WAVE OR TROPICAL
CYCLONE...IF AT ALL. THERE IS JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THE
TIME AND THERE IS GREAT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GLOBAL MODELS. GFS
MODEL DEVELOPS IT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND TRACKS IT TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL DOES NOT DO
ANYTHING WITH IT. WE ARE OBSERVING THE TROPICAL WAVE CLOSELY AND
ITS EVOLUTION...BUT IT IS JUST TOO EARLY YET TO PRECISE HOW OR
EVEN IF THIS WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA.
This is what the local weather service is saying, makes sense to me...
Have a good day too GT..hope to see you back later :)
Vr64l 93l is actually in the same latitude as Isaac was
Quoting 943. weatherman994:

I'm probably wrong but I think the storm will go more westward infact look at what Isaac was suposed to do it was forecasted to be a fish and it ended up making landfall in new orleans

I think you could be very well right about that
It does seem like the CV season is just ramping up. At the start of the season it was predicted that the emerging El Nino pattern would suppress CV activity.
We may all be in for a surprising Atlantic Hurricane season this year as far as numbers and intensity of these storms.


very nice tropical low here!!
Quoting 964. weatherman994:

Vr64l 93l is actually in the same latitude as Isaac was

And where Ivan was located

to me I have a feeling it will go further south than the consensus of the models. I don't see it getting strong too fast but if it can create an upper level high, it could even survive the caribbean death graveyard. anything is possible
Looks like it's gonna be another 90-100 degree day...Feels like I'm breathing water outside, it's so humid..

If anyone gets mad at or disagrees with another blogger today, try to ignore it if possible or maybe be respectful..

I gotta remember to do that too...
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
I know. i was just saying that i think it will be the next Hurricane of the season

It was a just a reminder for the hundreds of lurkers we get in here when there's a potential storm not to take intensity forecasts seriously at this stage of the game.
Quoting 969. wunderweatherman123:

to me I have a feeling it will go further south than the consensus of the models. I don't see it getting strong too fast but if it can create an upper level high, it could even survive the caribbean death graveyard. anything is possible

Agreed
And it already has that upper level high it's weak but it's there
...HERNAN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND WEAKENING...
8:00 AM PDT Mon Jul 28
Location: 20.5°N 115.9°W
Moving: NW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 996 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph
So this would take...what....2 weeks to get to the US??
Wunderkid do you see westward. For a future track down the road and I know its to early
977. JRRP
Quoting SLU:

mmmmmmmmmm well !!!!!
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Looks like it's gonna be another 90-100 degree day...Feels like I'm breathing water outside, it's so humid..

Already 90 with a dewpoint of 78 in SE Alabama after an overnight low of 78. I can swim around my yard...and I don't have a pool. The polar vortex can't get here soon enough.
Quoting sar2401:

Already 90 with a dewpoint of 78 in SE Alabama after an overnight low of 78. I can swim around my yard...and I don't have a pool. The polar vortex can't get here soon enough.


Figures. It's either me or Gro... :-)
981. JRRP
Quoting weatherman994:
Wunderkid do you see westward. For a future track down the road and I know its to early

tell me where do you live... and I tell you where 93L go
Looks pretty far south to me........is the slight weakness in the high that they think will make it turn that much?
It's the best looking blob this year that's for sure.....still a fair amount of dry air around it.....no doubt we all need a break from the heat and I know we all need the rain lets just hope that's all it is is a rain maker
93L might just lay out a moist path for the new blob coming off of Africa. All aboard the August African wave train!

Hoping to SURF next week here in Florida! Stay safe NE carib / fish / mid atlantic... oyea and florida...
Lots of thunder this morning in Fort Myers. Looks like a nice line of storms moving across the area.
Our atypical rainy season pattern continues.

Oh well :).If your not hyping your hurting.
Quoting 980. sar2401:



Figures. It's either me or Gro... :-)


I walked out the front door to go to the shop and it pure took my breathe away. They said on the news we are gonna have bad weather this evening. They mentioned straight line winds around 58mph.

sheri
Quoting 821. prcane4you:

Caribboy we have no other choice but Lol.Sorry


I loled, looks like what I do every time we get a lot of rain here even if it isn't dry.