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The Record Quiet Hurricane Season of 1914: Could it Happen Again in 2014?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:08 PM GMT on July 25, 2014

This year marks the 100th anniversary of the slowest Atlantic hurricane season on record--1914, which had no hurricanes and only one tropical storm. Is it possible that the 2014 hurricane season could match 1914 for the lowest activity ever recorded, with Hurricane Arthur ending up as our only named storm? I think that is highly unlikely, even though the atmospheric and oceanic conditions in the Atlantic are looking hostile for development for the coming two weeks.



A re-analysis of Atlantic tropical cyclones finds only one storm in 1914
In 2005, a reanalysis effort was made of all Atlantic tropical cyclones between 1911 - 1914, using historical weather maps, ship reports, and newspaper accounts. I talked to the leader of the reanalysis project, NHC's Dr. Chris Landsea, about the 1914 reanalysis. He told me, "We went into the re-analysis process for 1914 knowing that this was the quietest year on record, with only one tropical storm and no hurricanes. I thought for sure we'd find some storms that were missed, since so many of the other years we re-analyzed came up with new storms that were missed. But when we analyzed the data and looked for missing storms, we couldn't find any. The year 1914 remained with just one named storm--truly a remarkable year in the annals of the Atlantic hurricane database."

The only tropical storm of 1914 developed in the Bahamas on September 15--the latest formation date for an Atlantic season's first storm in the official HURDAT database, which goes back to 1851. The storm moved slowly northwestward and made landfall near the Florida/Georgia border on September 17. Two other systems were formally considered for inclusion into the hurricane database in 1914: a potential late-October tropical depression that was identified in the Western Caribbean, but was too weak to be considered a tropical storm; and a storm that brought gale-force winds on September 30 - October 1 to the coasts of Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle, but which was deemed to be an extratropical storm. The reanalysis effort found that the only other Atlantic hurricane season that did not produce any hurricanes was 1907.



Figure 1. Top: August - October 1914 departure from average of relative humidity at middle levels of the atmosphere (near the 700 mb pressure level, which is roughly 10,000 feet above the surface.) Bottom: August - October 1914 departure from average of sea level pressure. The August - October peak part of hurricane season in 1914 had a very dry atmosphere with a relative humidity 4 - 8% lower than average (yellow, orange and red colors), and was dominated by high pressure (1 - 2 mb higher than average.) Images plotted using the NOAA/ESRL 20th Century Reanalysis.

Reasons for the Exceptionally quiet hurricane season of 1914
1) El Niño. Not surprisingly, 1914 was an El Niño year, judging by the Southern Oscillation Index Archives from Australia's Bureau of Meteorology. It is well-know that during an El Niño event, an atmospheric circulation that brings strong upper-level west-to-east winds over the tropical Atlantic typically sets up, and these winds tend to create high wind shear, discouraging tropical storm formation.

2. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs.) Ocean temperatures in the Main Development Region (MDR) for Atlantic hurricanes, from the coast of Africa to Central America, between 10°N and 20°N, including the Caribbean, were -0.4°C (-0.7°F) from average during August - October 1914, according to the Hadley Centre SST data set (HadSST2). This ranks as the 12th coolest such departure from average since 1900, and this sort of temperature anomaly would have definitely tended to squelch tropical storm formation by limiting the amount of heat energy available to developing storms. The record coldest SST anomaly in the MDR since 1900 was -0.8°C during the 1913 hurricane season, which was a very quiet year with six named storms and four hurricanes, all of which were Category 1 hurricanes.

3. Dry air and high pressure. It is well known that dry air at middle levels of the atmosphere (near the 700 mb pressure level, which is roughly 10,000 feet above the surface) discourages tropical storm formation. During August - October 1914, there was plenty of dry air over the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico which would have made it difficult for tropical storms to form. The Atlantic was also dominated by higher than average pressure, so an atmosphere featuring large-scale dry, sinking air associated with persistent high pressure systems was likely in place during the 1914 hurricane season.

Why the quiet hurricane season of 1914 will be hard to duplicate
Is it possible in our new climate and with the modern weather observing system to have just one named storm in an Atlantic hurricane season? It's not impossible, but the odds of such an event are much lower than they were in 1914, for two reasons:

1) The globe has warmed about 0.8°C (1.4°F) since 1914. That extra heat in the oceans makes it much more difficult to maintain a Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomaly of -0.4°C during the peak part of hurricane season in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, as occurred during the 1914 hurricane season. The MDR SST anomaly has averaged about -0.2°C in June and July 2014, and I would be surprised if it managed to sink as low as -0.4°C and maintain that level of coolness during all of August, September, and October. The quietest Atlantic hurricane seasons typically occur in years when MDR SSTs are much below average, so the extra heat in the ocean due to global warming should cut down on the number of seasons with very low named storm counts.

2) Back in 1914, we did not have weather satellites or the Hurricane Hunters, which meant that weak, short-lived tropical storms far out at sea may have been missed. Landsea et al. (2010) showed that the increasing trend in North Atlantic tropical storm frequency over the past 140 years was largely due to the increasing trend in short‐lived storms (storms lasting 2 days or less, called “shorties”), after the 1940s (Figure 2, top). The researchers did not detect a significant increasing trend in medium‐ to long‐lived storms lasting more than 2 days. Looking at Figure 2, it looks quite plausible that 2 - 4 of these "shorties" were missed in 1914, due to the inferior observing system. They wrote that “while it is possible that the recorded increase in short‐duration TCs [tropical cyclones] represents a real climate signal, we consider it is more plausible that the increase arises primarily from improvements in the quantity and quality of the observations, along with enhanced interpretation techniques.” Villarini et al. (2011), in a paper titled, "Is the recorded increase in short-duration North Atlantic tropical storms spurious?", agreed. They attempted to correlate increases in tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures in recent decades to the increase in short-lived Atlantic tropical storms, and were unable to do so.


Figure 2. Atlantic tropical cyclones between 1878 - 2013 that spent two days or less at tropical storm strength (top) and more than two days at tropical storm strength or hurricane strength (bottom.) Figure updated from Villarini, G., G. A. Vecchi, T. R. Knutson, and J. A. Smith (2011), "Is the recorded increase in short-duration North Atlantic tropical storms spurious?", J. Geophys. Res., 116, D10114, doi:10.1029/2010JD015493.

My conclusion: we will see a Tropical Storm Bertha in the Atlantic in 2014, but don't expect it until mid-August.

References
Landsea, C. W., C. Anderson, N. Charles, G. Clark, J. Dunion, J. Fernandez‐Partagas, P. Hungerford, C. Neumann, and M. Zimmer (2004), "The Atlantic hurricane database re‐analysis project: Documentation for 1851–1910 alterations and additions to the HURDAT database," in Hurricanes and Typhoons ‐ Past, Present, and Future, edited by R. J. Murnane and K. B. Liu, pp. 178–221, Columbia Univ. Press, New York.

Landsea, C. W., (2007), "Counting Atlantic tropical cyclones back to 1900," Eos, 88(18), 197-202.

Villarini, G., G. A. Vecchi, T. R. Knutson, and J. A. Smith (2011), "Is the recorded increase in short-duration North Atlantic tropical storms spurious?", J. Geophys. Res., 116, D10114, doi:10.1029/2010JD015493

Have a great weekend, everyone, and if the Atlantic stays quiet, I'll wait until Monday to make a new post.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Yeah... Not going to happen...
Activity is starting early down here in S.W. Florida.
Yesterday ended up being a cloudy and rainy day in the Fort Myers area. It looks like today could end up being the same.

1003. JRRP


Quoting 991. floridaT:

However the forecasting tools and ability of the NHC have vastly improved since then

Andrew was still closer to going out to sea than most other storms. It just missed the window by that much. For something that in between, I would expect some model runs very early on to recurve it, especially when the storm hasn't even formed yet.
Quoting 988. opal92nwf:


Yep yep yep. You wonder if we have been locked into this pattern forever??

Although as far a similar track, they did think Andrew might go out to sea. (of course, of course, I don't mean to say a cat. 5 will hit the US blah blah blah blah)


I am not sure what pattern that might be, I don't think Arthur was in a pattern to hit NC as a hurricane in July. Isaac was suppose to NYC and Florida and look where it went. Ike was suppose to hit South Florida. That being said I am not sure how one can say a high or trof would steer a system yet to be formed out to sea when one does not exist yet.
Quoting 1001. EpsilonWeather:

Yeah... Not going to happen...



The GFS did a good job with TD2... so maybe it'll be right again with this one
1007. jpsb
Quoting 998. yonzabam:



If you have an alternative scientific explanation for current global warming, let's hear it. Otherwise, it's all just emotional empty headed hand flapping.

I'm waiting (but not holding my breath).


Natural cycles with a minor assist from CO2. It is my understanding that any theory that can not accurately predict the future is falsified. I'd say 17+ years of no significant warming has falsified the theory of Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming. The pause was not predicted and can not be explained by CAGW. BTW, It is not incumbent on me to provide an alternative explanation to falsify a theory. All I have to do is demonstrate one time that the theories predictions do not match observations and the theory is falsified.

"It doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are. If it doesn't agree with experiment, it's wrong." - Richard P. Feynman
Quoting 996. jpsb:



I wish I knew how to embed a video, if I did I would embed this . For 2,000 years the Geocentric model of the universe was "accepted science". In fact arguing against it could get one in trouble, much like today where arguing against liberal doctrine such as CAGW can also get you in trouble. The Geocentric model is a perfect example of making the facts fit a preconceived notion in it's case that the Earth was the center of the Universe. I don't judge the ancients to harshly since most ancient scientists were really philosophers not scientists in the modern sense. And the geocentric model was able to accurately (for it time) predict the future motion of the Sun, Moon and planets. If anything can make the case that the science is never settled but sometimes the politics is, then it is the geocentric model.

Please have a look at the link I posted, it is short (3 minutes) and is a beautiful animation of the geocentric model.


Yawn.

Combining this result with my earlier studies (see here and here), over several years I have reviewed 25,182 scientific articles in peer-reviewed journals. Only 26, about 1 in 1,000, in my judgment reject anthropogenic global warming. I describe my methodology here Link.

Instead of coalescing around a rival theory to anthropogenic global warming, the rejecting articles offer a hodgepodge of alternatives, none of which has caught on. The dissenting articles are rarely cited, even by other dissenters. A groundswell this is not. The 26 rejecting articles have had no discernible influence on science.

Very few of the most vocal global warming deniers, those who write op-eds and blogs and testify to congressional committees, have ever written a peer-reviewed article in which they say explicitly that anthropogenic global warming is false. Why? Because then they would have to provide the evidence and, evidently, they don't have it.

What can we conclude?

1. There a mountain of scientific evidence in favor of anthropogenic global warming and no convincing evidence against it.

2. Those who deny anthropogenic global warming have no alternative theory to explain the observed rise in atmospheric CO2 and global temperature.

These two facts together mean that the so-called debate over global warming is an illusion, a hoax conjured up by a handful of apostate scientists and a misguided and sometimes colluding media, aided and abetted by funding from fossil fuel companies and right wing foundations.

On the one side, we have a mountain of scientific evidence, on the other, ideology and arm-waving." Link

The Geocentric model argument is dead on it's face. Name one field of science where the science has not gotten more focused moving forward. Where the addition of more research has yielded less in terms on clear science. The fact is over the 100+ years CO2 and temperature have been studied, the science has been more refined, made more clear. It happens in every single field of research. It happened in the very field you are twisting to use as evidence against AGW.

So either climate science has now been refined as more scientists add to the scientific discourse, or climate science is the first field in modern human history where the more research and scientists involved have somehow made the results less clear.

I'm going with the 25,000 papers in the last 20 years that have established a firm scientific discourse on the subject with no competing idea able to account for the information than ideological arm waving and scream of conspiracy and fraud.

Yawn.


I find it!!
Ok so where's the disturbance???


Usually on Rood's blog. Sometimes here.
Only a matter of time until get's there CaribBoy.
Quoting 1005. sporteguy03:



I am not sure what pattern that might be, I don't think Arthur was in a pattern to hit NC as a hurricane in July. Isaac was suppose to NYC and Florida and look where it went. Ike was suppose to hit South Florida. That being said I am not sure how one can say a high or trof would steer a system yet to be formed out to sea when one does not exist yet.

It's been in that pattern 85% of the time since 2009 where almost all Cape Verde storms at the farthest West made it to the East Coast cause of troughs! The general pattern has been troughing, it has been causing places like the Gulf and Caribbean to miss out on the Cape Verde storms. Yeah Isaac made it to the Gulf, but that was not a MAJOR storm and an anomaly to the troughing pattern.
Quoting 1011. Climate175:

Only a matter of time until get's there CaribBoy.


:-(
Quoting 1007. jpsb:



Natural cycles with a minor assist from CO2. It is my understanding that any theory that can not accurately predict the future is falsified. I'd say 17+ years of no significant warming has falsified the theory of Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming. The pause was not predicted and can not be explained by CAGW. BTW, It is not incumbent on me to provide an alternative explanation to falsify a theory. All I have to do is demonstrate one time that the theories predictions do not match observations and the theory is falsified.

"It doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are. If it doesn't agree with experiment, it's wrong." - Richard P. Feynman


If you repeat it enough, it must be true.

Meanwhile, in reality:

Surface temperature is not a valid measurement of total energy in the system, nor is 17 years enough to get a statistically significant trend in EITHER direction. This is nothing more than bad science coupled with a lack of understanding basic concepts involved in climate science.
M 6.0 - Northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge
2014-07-26 18:28:38 UTC-07:00
Location
23.761°N 45.646°W
Depth
10.0km
It's a mess out there...
Quoting 1001. EpsilonWeather:

Yeah... Not going to happen...

Quoting 1017. hurricanes2018:



What does that prove?
AURORAS OVER CALIFORNIA ... 10 YEARS AGO: What a difference 10 years can make. The Solar Max of 2014 has been mild, producing relatively few sunspots and meagre auroras. A decade ago, however, a much more potent Solar Max was underway. A strong solar storm on July 27, 2004, sparked Northern Lights as far south as the Anza-Borrego Desert of California
1020. MahFL
Quoting 930. BahaHurican:

Am I correct in thinking this is the same wave that took out that plane over Mali?


I believe it was the same wave. Though right now we don't know for sure if the crash was weather related.
Quoting 996. jpsb:



I wish I knew how to embed a video, if I did I would embed this . For 2,000 years the Geocentric model of the universe was "accepted science". In fact arguing against it could get one in trouble, much like today where arguing against liberal doctrine such as CAGW can also get you in trouble. The Geocentric model is a perfect example of making the facts fit a preconceived notion in it's case that the Earth was the center of the Universe. I don't judge the ancients to harshly since most ancient scientists were really philosophers not scientists in the modern sense. And the geocentric model was able to accurately (for it time) predict the future motion of the Sun, Moon and planets. If anything can make the case that the science is never settled but sometimes the politics is, then it is the geocentric model.

Please have a look at the link I posted, it is short (3 minutes) and is a beautiful animation of the geocentric model.


Do you realize how anachronistic your comment is? You cannot logically compare a conclusion arrived upon with a lack of scientific evidence and the pressure of the Roman Catholic Church brought to bear in an era over 1000 years ago with today's age! Do we really need to go into the reasons why? Right now, real scientific evidence, supported by an almost absolute majority of trained scientists, support the idea of AGW. Until the same statement can be applied to the idea that AGW is ultimately a fairy tale, I'll choose to accept the science of today rather than the biases of days past!
Quoting 996. jpsb:



I wish I knew how to embed a video, if I did I would embed this . For 2,000 years the Geocentric model of the universe was "accepted science". In fact arguing against it could get one in trouble, much like today where arguing against liberal doctrine such as CAGW can also get you in trouble. The Geocentric model is a perfect example of making the facts fit a preconceived notion in it's case that the Earth was the center of the Universe. I don't judge the ancients to harshly since most ancient scientists were really philosophers not scientists in the modern sense. And the geocentric model was able to accurately (for it time) predict the future motion of the Sun, Moon and planets. If anything can make the case that the science is never settled but sometimes the politics is, then it is the geocentric model.

Please have a look at the link I posted, it is short (3 minutes) and is a beautiful animation of the geocentric model.


That's a fairly decent analogy, jpsb. For even after an increasing number of scientists began amassing an increasingly large pile of data in support of heliocentricity back then, many laypeople clung to their deeply held but wholly ignorant (that is, uninformed/misinformed) opinion that the scientists *had* to be wrong, that the evidence *had* to be incorrect if not fraudulent, that everything *had* to circle around the Earth, that things simply *couldn't * be any other way. In the end, of course, the scientific truth won out, though not before heliocentric scientists had been thoroughly prosecuted, some literally burned at the stake. Anyone who's ever pondered how much more advanced we might be now had humanity not wasted so many centuries denying scientific facts so that they might comfortably cling to their ideologies knows what I'm talking about...

At any rate, given the continued--and worsening--anti-science stance of one major US political party, there's little doubt on which side Fox "News" and the US House would fall were the heliocentric/geocentric debate raging today. ;-)
1023. jpsb
Quoting 1014. Naga5000:



If you repeat it enough, it must be true.

Meanwhile, in reality:

Surface temperature is not a valid measurement of total energy in the system, nor is 17 years enough to get a statistically significant trend in EITHER direction. This is nothing more than bad science coupled with a lack of understanding basic concepts involved in climate science.



BTW I have no problem with AGW, it is the CAGW that I have a problem with. Since there might be a devolving TC in the Atlantic, I suggest we agree to disagree for the time being. I'll give you the last word. :)
Quoting 1007. jpsb:



Natural cycles with a minor assist from CO2. It is my understanding that any theory that can not accurately predict the future is falsified. I'd say 17+ years of no significant warming has falsified the theory of Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming. The pause was not predicted and can not be explained by CAGW. BTW, It is not incumbent on me to provide an alternative explanation to falsify a theory. All I have to do is demonstrate one time that the theories predictions do not match observations and the theory is falsified.

"It doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are. If it doesn't agree with experiment, it's wrong." - Richard P. Feynman

Beautifully put! (:
Quoting 1013. TimSoCal:



:-(
Tim you will get rain very soon, I am sure of it even though it does not seem like it now.
The entire notion of a pause in global temperature is a farce. But let's pretend surface temperature is the only measurement, even cherry picking that often repeated 17 year period to include the start point right before one of the largest el nino events we have witnessed.


"It’s clear that if we expected a pause, we would expect most of the following years’ temperatures to be below the red forecast line, but about half above and half below the blue forecast line. On the other hand, if we expected continued warming, we would expect most of the following years’ temperatures to be above the blue forecast line, but about half above and half below the red forecast line."

How did it turn out?


This is repeatable with every single data said as can be found on Tamino's website here: Link


So this entire notion of no warming, despite the continued and repeated cries, is made up, fake, a lie, even without looking at the entirety of the energy system.

Rational people would be wise to distance themselves from baseless conspiracy.
1027. MahFL
Quoting 970. JrWeathermanFL:



I see nothing. :P

Nothing has formed yet, it's brewing, all the micro winds, clouds, thunderstorms and maybe a butterfly flying by will all add to what forms.
Quoting 1007. jpsb:



Natural cycles with a minor assist from CO2. It is my understanding that any theory that can not accurately predict the future is falsified. I'd say 17+ years of no significant warming has falsified the theory of Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming. The pause was not predicted and can not be explained by CAGW. BTW, It is not incumbent on me to provide an alternative explanation to falsify a theory. All I have to do is demonstrate one time that the theories predictions do not match observations and the theory is falsified.

"It doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are. If it doesn't agree with experiment, it's wrong." - Richard P. Feynman


Natural cycles? Care to explain which natural cycles? The only ones I'm aware of are the Milankovitch astrophysical cycles, which take place over tens of thousands of years and therefore have no bearing on current warming, and the 11 year solar cycle which may contribute 0.1C to global temperature variability.

And the 17 year warming hiatus myth has been shot down so often, it's become quite tedious. Global average decadal temperature anomaly, reference period 1951-80.

1981-90 +0.20C
1991-00 +0.32C
2001-10 +0.55C

Does that look like warming has stopped to you? Globally, 2010 was the warmest year on record, and the first 6 months of 2014 are the third warmest Jan-Jun period on record. Clearly, the warming continues unabated, but you'll be on here tomorrow spouting the same bilge.

NASA GISS Global Temperature Record
1029. jpsb
Quoting 1022. Neapolitan:



That's a fairly decent analogy, jpsb. For even after an increasing number of scientists began amassing an increasingly large pile of data in support of heliocentricity back then, many laypeople clung to their deeply held but wholly ignorant (that is, uninformed/misinformed) opinion that the scientists *had* to be wrong, that the evidence *had* to be incorrect if not fraudulent, that everything *had* to circle around the Earth, that things simply *couldn't * be any other way. In the end, of course, the scientific truth won out, though not before heliocentric scientists had been thoroughly prosecuted, some literally burned at the stake. Anyone who's ever pondered how much more advanced we might be now had humanity not wasted so many centuries denying scientific facts so that they might comfortably cling to their ideologies knows what I'm talking about...

At any rate, given the continued--and worsening--anti-science stance of one major US political party, there's little doubt on which side Fox "News" and the US House would fall were the heliocentric/geocentric debate raging today. ;-)



Nicely stated Neo, of course I disagree but I always enjoy reading a sound and well put argument.
1030. ncstorm
latest run from the experimental HWRF Portal is excited about the potential set up for the atlantic

the site is pretty slow..only on 00z run..

It'll be interesting to see if anything forms from the cold front. The CMC shows it leaving an area of low pressure off the coast of Florida and the low stays off the east coast for a few days before moving inland.





Something to look out for at least. The GOM should be watched as well, as the front goes down into the eastern gulf and we've seen in the past spin ups from the tail end of cold fronts.
Quoting 1030. ncstorm:

latest run from the experimental HWRF Portal is excited about the potential set up for the atlantic

the site is pretty slow..only on 00z run..



Wow, look at that thing extending all the way into the GOMEX
I wonder what happened to SouthernIllinois, Civicane, and VIking?
ILwthrfan, hope you have a wonderful day. Naga, Naga, Naga, what else can I say. I highly doubt these troughs will be this strong along the east coast for the rest of the season as the High builds in the troughs should move west back over to the Mississippi Valley thus opening up the east coast to the eastern Gulf of Mexico. If I lived anywhere from North Carolina to Louisiana I would keep an eye out for this wave and all future waves. This is not 2013, the environment is changing and If this pattern keeps evolving the way it is, there should be multiple storms affecting the Caribbean and U.S.
Quoting 995. Sfloridacat5:



I'm a Science teacher of close to 20 years. I don't know of any teaching institution where calling your students ignorant for whatever reason is considered appropriate behavior for a teacher.
This could get a teacher in serious trouble or worse, and they would most likely end up in a face to face meeting with the parents of the students being called "ignorant."

The word "ignorant" is taken as an insult to most people despite its official definition.




I can't imagine a teacher ever directly telling a student--at least a younger one--"You're ignorant, Johnny." That being said, when labelled as "ignorant", intellectually honest adults will look inside themselves to see whether they indeed are, and if so, they'll educate themselves as a way of scrubbing that label away. OTOH, intellectually lazy or dishonest types will clutch their pearls, head for the nearest fainting couch, and ask why everyone is being so mean to them.

Ignorance is a chronic disease best cured by developing an open mind.
Quoting 1030. ncstorm:

latest run from the experimental HWRF Portal is excited about the potential set up for the atlantic

the site is pretty slow..only on 00z run..


Looks like a pretty big storm. Also, looks like the trough pushes through Central FL.
It looks like the Atlantic is moistened out
Quoting 1023. jpsb:




BTW I have no problem with AGW, it is the CAGW that I have a problem with. Since there might be a devolving TC in the Atlantic, I suggest we agree to disagree for the time being. I'll give you the last word. :)


Why does that graph use 1979 to 1983 as a baseline when climate uses 30? Why do all the data points magically start at 0? The answer is because that graph is a cherry picked and doesn't even show what is claims to show as there are no confidence intervals, those runs of CIMP5 aren't measuring surface temperature, Hadcrut and UAH measure two completely different things, but you've been told this before that last 4 times you posted this at Dr. Rood's who conveniently for us, IS a climate scientist with a current post about models: Link

Also, if you want some credibility, use the terms is the scientific discourse. CAGW appears nowhere in the science and much like your data, is a made up by climate science deniers.

Quoting 1033. opal92nwf:


Wow, look at that thing extending all the way into the GOMEX

CONUS shields are up!!


Quoting 1035. NativeSun:

ILwthrfan, hope you have a wonderful day. Naga, Naga, Naga, what else can I say. I highly doubt these troughs will be this strong along the east coast for the rest of the season as the High builds in the troughs should move west back over to the Mississippi Valley thus opening up the east coast to the eastern Gulf of Mexico. If I lived anywhere from North Carolina to Louisiana I would keep an eye out for this wave and all future waves. This is not 2013, the environment is changing and If this pattern keeps evolving the way it is, there should be multiple storms affecting the Caribbean and U.S.


Say something, I'm not a mind reader.
1043. ncstorm
.
FIM-ZEUS says Hispaniola may need to watch this one. I'm not confident yet this one goes OTS.

1045. ncstorm
SYNOPSIS 2014072700

P09L
8N, 20W
925 hPa

Yesterday’s 0%/20% has increased to 0%/40% (2/5 day) by NHC. What eventually tracks across the Atlantic is handled differently by each model. I track the primary feature as P07L in ECMWF (weak) and UKMET (strong) but as P09L (strong) in GFS.

ECMWF: Just one tiny OW max in a long line of ITCZ OW maxima in the analysis. Much like UKMET after that.

GFS: GFS has the easiest pouch/OW max (early on) to track as a separate (distinct from P07L and P08L).

UKMET: A tiny OW max in the analysis (just like in GFS) quickly disappears. (Rather than developing P09L, UKMET develops P07L.)

NAVGEM:

HWRF-GEN:

ECMWF -9.2 RH 0h
GFS -5.0 v925 120h
UKMET -8.2 v925 0h
NAVGEM ———— ———— ———h
HWGEN ———— ———— ———h
Quoting 995. Sfloridacat5:



I'm a Science teacher of close to 20 years. I don't know of any teaching institution where calling your students ignorant for whatever reason is considered appropriate behavior for a teacher.
This could get a teacher in serious trouble or worse, and they would most likely end up in a face to face meeting with the parents of the students being called "ignorant."

The word "ignorant" is taken as an insult to most people despite its official definition.




And it never happened except in some hypothetical fantasy land created by a blogger.

And yes, ignorant doesn't have to be derogatory, as in my original post, it wasn't used as a derogatory term, in context it was used to describe a persons lack of knowledge on a subject. Next time I'll say they they were _______ of the facts: insert your word here that means uniformed and doesn't get everyone's undies in a bunch.

That area of disturbed weather in the eastern atlantic, near 10N 30W is showing a little sign of organization. it is a large system which is devoid of any vorticity, but has good convergence ,albeit because of the location. That wave has a large area of moisture and is gradually negating the dry air to the west and north of it.. This looks like the one of the better waves to come from the deep tropics and has the potential to develop. Looking at the steering layers I get the impression that this will be a long westward tracker which will threaten the central lesser Antilles come Friday 1st august. The high to the north of the disturbance has shown a small erosion, as a result of a trough to the north. As soon as the trough retrogrades, the high will rebuild forcing what I suspect to be Bertha on a westward path the next 3-4 days. no matter what happens the next few days will be one of interest and concern to residents of the lesser Antilles.
can anyone post the long range CFS model? I'm just curious what it shows next month in the tropics. any hurricanes or still nothing?
Quoting 1007. jpsb:



Natural cycles with a minor assist from CO2. It is my understanding that any theory that can not accurately predict the future is falsified. I'd say 17+ years of no significant warming has falsified the theory of Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming. The pause was not predicted and can not be explained by CAGW. BTW, It is not incumbent on me to provide an alternative explanation to falsify a theory. All I have to do is demonstrate one time that the theories predictions do not match observations and the theory is falsified.

"It doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are. If it doesn't agree with experiment, it's wrong." - Richard P. Feynman


Part of the problem here is your addition of the word "catastrophic" to "anthropogenic global warming" in your discussion The definition of "catastrophic" can be very subjective, especially depending on your timeframe. But it is a buzzword that the Fauxers like to link to climate-change theory to automatically trigger a response from the right.

Seventeen years of no demonstrated warming? My understanding is that the much of the warming has been taking place in the deep oceans during that time. (I've just come in from gardening for a break from the Fla. heat, and I'm not gonna take the time to go hunting research now.) But some of this science should be awfully simple to understand, regardless: It's entirely logical that you cannot take a biome, inject large additional amounts of one element, and expect the biome to remain unchanged. Would you expect to come out unaltered if you followed an 8-ounce glass of plain water with an 8-ounce glass of water that had a tablespoon of cyanide added? P.s. You might even find your outcome "catastrophic." I can assure you, the polar bears of the Arctic, the Rockies pines dying from bark beetles taking advantage of warmer winters, the birds whose babies die now because spring comes too soon for them to time their hatchlings with the hatches of insects, would probably already consider earth's current condition to be "catastrophic."
A rather humid start to the day for Soo Cal with humidity at 52% currently

Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA (SSSSD)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Sun, 27 Jul 8:41 am (PDT)
Most Recent Observation: Sun, 27 Jul 8:30 am PDT (PDT)
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
27 Jul 8:30 am PDT 71 53 52 E 4G06 OK

But higher level moisture is coming our way from the South and SouthEast.......hope it triggers some rain and not just drips and added mugginess.

Quoting 1004. opal92nwf:


Andrew was still closer to going out to sea than most other storms. It just missed the window by that much. For something that in between, I would expect some model runs very early on to recurve it, especially when the storm hasn't even formed yet.


Hurricane Bill recurved by the slimmest of margins. It's going to be an interesting season.
Quoting 1042. Naga5000:





Say something, I'm not a mind reader.


but think about how cool it would be if you were :)
1053. SLINKY
Quoting 1023. jpsb:




BTW I have no problem with AGW, it is the CAGW that I have a problem with. Since there might be a devolving TC in the Atlantic, I suggest we agree to disagree for the time being. I'll give you the last word. :)


Instead of simply relying on graphs put together by obviously biased data sources, why don't you take the time and analyze the actual raw UAH data and perform an trend-line analysis yourself?

If you did you would find that the UAH data from 1983-2013 (the same period shown on your graph), that the amount of change in temperature is around 0.49C:


If you apply that amount of temperature change from the starting point on your graph, by 2013 the UAH data is about -0.1C below the main model consensus line, instead of the -0.3C difference shown in your questionable graph.
1054. Patrap
Quoting 163. Patrap:

The Sixth Great Extinction Is Underway and We're to Blame

Jeffrey Kluger @jeffreykluger 5:23 PM ET


Goodbye to all that: millions of Earth's species, like the white rhino, are no match for the one species that considers itself the smartest

The Earth has been stripped of up to 90% of its species five times before in the past 450 million years. Now it's happening again and this time there's no rogue asteroid to blame.

Here's hoping the human species likes its own company, because at the rate Earth is going, we might be the only ones we've got left.

Nobody can say with certainty how many species there are on Earth, but the number runs well into the millions. Many of them, of course, are on the order of bacteria and spores. The other ones, the ones we can see and count and interact with to say nothing of the ones we like are far fewer. And, according to a new and alarming series of papers in Science, their numbers are falling fast, thanks mostly to us.

One of the first great rules of terrestrial biology is that no species is forever. The Earth has gone through five major extinction events before from the Ordovician-Silurian, about 350 million years ago, to the Cretaceous-Paleogene, 65 million years back. The likely causes included volcanism, gamma ray bursts, and, in the case of the Cretaceous-Paleogene wipeout, an asteroid strike the one that killed the dinosaurs. But the result of all of the extinctions was the same: death, a lot of it, for 70% to 90% of all species, depending on the event.

As increasingly accepted theories have argued and as the Science papers show we are now in the midst of the sixth great extinction, the unsettlingly-named Anthropocene, or the age of the humans.

The numbers are sobering: Over all, there has been a human-driven decline in the populations of all species by 25% over the past 500 years, but not all groups have suffered equally. Up to a third of all species of vertebrates are now considered threatened, as are 45% of most species of invertebrates. Among the vertebrates, amphibians are getting clobbered, with 41% of species in trouble, compared to just 17% of birds at least so far. The various orders of insects suffer differently too: 35% of Lepidopteran species are in decline (goodbye butterflies), which sounds bad enough, but it's nothing compared to the similar struggles of nearly 100% of Orthoptera species (crickets, grasshoppers and katydids, look your last).

As the authors of all this loss, we are doing our nasty work in a lot of ways. Overexploitation which is to say killing animals for food, clothing or the sheer perverse pleasure of it plays a big role, especially among the so-called charismatic megafauna. So we get elephants slaughtered for their tusks, rhinos poached for their horns and tigers shot and skinned for their pelts, until oops no more elephants, rhinos or tigers.

Habitat destruction is another big driver, particularly in rainforests, where 25,000 miles (75,000 km) of tree cover are lost annually the equivalent of denuding one Panama per year, year after year. And you don't even have to chop or burn an ecosystem completely away to threaten its species; sometimes all it takes is cutting a few roads across it or building a few farms or homes in the wrong spots. Environmental fragmentation like this can be more than sufficient to cut species off from food or water, to say nothing of mates, and start them in a downward spiral that becomes irreversible.

Then too there is global warming, which makes once-hospitable habitats too hot or dry or stormy for species adapted to different conditions. Finally, as TIME's Bryan Walsh wrote in last week's cover story, there are invasive species pests like the giant African snail, the lionfish or the emerald ash borer which hitch a ride into a new ecosystem on ships or packing material, or are brought in as pets, and then reproduce wildly, crowding out native species.

The result of all this species loss what the Science researchers dub defaunation goes far beyond simply leaving us with a less rich, less diverse world. After all, the Earth bounced back from far worse extinctions and did just fine. But it bounced back a different way each time, and the most recent version, the one in which we emerged, is the one we like and it's easy to destroy.

Loss of species, the authors point out, means loss of pollinators which is a real problem since 75% of food crops rely on insects if they're going to thrive. Nutrient cycles the decomposition of organic matter that feeds the soil collapse if mobile species can't get from place to place and do their living and dying in a fairly even distribution. The same is true for water quality, which relies on all manner of animals to prevent lakes and rivers and streams from becoming too algae-dense or oxygen poor. Pest control suffers as well when animals like bats are no longer around the eat the insect pests that attack crops, it's bad news for autumn harvests. North America alone is projected to suffer $22 billion in agricultural losses as desirable bat populations continue to decline.

It ought to take appealing to our self-interest to get us to quit making such a mess of what we're increasingly coming to learn is an exceedingly destructible world. But it's that very self-interest that led us to make that mess in the first place. We can either start to change our ways, or we can keep going the way we are at least until the Anthropocene extinction claims one final species: our own.
1055. ncstorm
I'm trying so hard to stay out of this today..but Naga, you are wrong..

I would hope everyone who does have students still in the school system have their undies in a bunch because that worries me that a teacher would say that if the situation warrants it then the student would be called ignorant..you might want to go read back and look at your comment because I asked if you would do it and you said "Certainty" or do I have to provide words that mean the same thing as Certainty?

doesn't matter if the situation hasn't happened yet, the fact that you think its fine to use the word towards a student is troubling..I gave you words that mean the same thing as it but yet you feel it isnt negative?

I just hope you rethink your position and never do it..as I said, it wont sit well with parents or administration..

12z GFS 96 hours Islands need to probably start watching with consistency beginning.

1058. ncstorm
Kelvin wave is on the way.

Can we drop the global warming feud already? Especially when we actually have something to watch in the Atlantic and Pacific.
it's going out to sea on this run too. the NW turn is evident. nothing past 7 days is conclusive so I'm not counting out the fish storm track
Quoting 1040. Naga5000:



Why does that graph use 1979 to 1983 as a baseline when climate uses 30? Why do all the data points magically start at 0? The answer is because that graph is a cherry picked and doesn't even show what is claims to show as there are no confidence intervals, those runs of CIMP5 aren't measuring surface temperature, Hadcrut and UAH measure two completely different things, but you've been told this before that last 4 times you posted this at Dr. Rood's who conveniently for us, IS a climate scientist with a current post about models: Link

Also, if you want some credibility, use the terms is the scientific discourse. CAGW appears nowhere in the science and much like your data, is a made up by climate science deniers.




Here's the corrected versions of that graph:



and the explanation of Spencer's "errors":

Roy Spencer's latest deceit and deception
1065. 62901IL
Quoting 993. ncstorm:



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1479
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0908 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NC...FAR SERN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 271408Z - 271515Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LINE OF TSTMS MOVING ACROSS CNTRL NC MAY POSE A RISK FOR
A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT APPROACHES THE
COAST. ALTHOUGH A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN WIND POTENTIAL.

DISCUSSION...A LINE OF TSTMS HAS FORMED THIS MORNING...ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A LONG-LIVED MCV MOVING OUT OF
THE SRN APPALACHIANS. KRAX RADAR FROM 14Z SAMPLED APPROXIMATELY
30-35 KT ON BASE VELOCITY W OF RALEIGH AT 1-2K FT...AND WITH
CONVECTION LIKELY STILL SOMEWHAT ELEVATED...THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR
WIND GUSTS APPEARS MINIMAL ATTM. STRONG HEATING IS OCCURRING
DOWNSHEAR FROM THIS LINE AND WILL ERODE WEAK CINH PRESENT IN THE 12Z
GSO/MHX SOUNDINGS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE CONVECTIVE LINE
BECOMING ROOTED NEAR THE SFC OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AS A
RESULT...SOME INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR THROUGH LATE
MORNING...WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN A STRONG WIND THREAT
POSSIBLE AS THE LINE APPROACHES THE NC COASTAL PLAIN. HOWEVER...THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER/SVR WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON IS STILL UNCERTAIN...AND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

..ROGERS/HART.. 07/27/2014

MD 1480 graphic

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1480
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1019 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...KY AND SRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 271519Z - 271715Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...IN THE NEAR TERM STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR
MAINLY ISOLATED HAIL FROM SRN IND THROUGH NRN AND CNTRL KY.
HOWEVER...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT COULD EVOLVE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...LATE THIS MORNING A CUSTER OF ELEVATED STORMS PERSISTS
FROM ERN AND SRN IND THROUGH NRN AND CNTRL KY. ACTIVITY IS
DEVELOPING WITHIN A ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THETA-E ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A WSWLY LLJ. THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS DESTABILIZING W
AND SW OF THE ONGOING STORMS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE RISING INTO THE
LOW 80S WITH LOW 70F DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. A SHARPENING PRE-FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE WAS INDICATED FROM SWRN IND INTO SRN IL MOVING
SEWD. AS THE SFC LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM...NEW SFC-BASED STORMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND WITHIN EXIT REGION OF A SEWD
ADVANCING UPPER JET. THE POSSIBILITY ALSO EXISTS FOR SOME OF THE
ELEVATED STORMS FORMING ALONG WRN FLANK OF THE MCS TO BECOME SFC
BASED AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR ADVECTS EWD WITH TIME. TIMING OF SFC
BASED INITIATION IS UNCERTAIN...BUT BASED ON MORNING RAOBS AND POINT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SHOULD WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S. STRENGTHENING
VERTICAL SHEAR ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER JET AND RELATED LLJ WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES.

..DIAL/HART.. 07/27/2014


ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON 38918578 38018431 37168331 36668379 36638636 36678816
37298834 37868738 38718680 38918578
1066. beell
Quoting 1059. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Kelvin wave is on the way.




I'm a bit slow. How can you tell and where is it?
1067. java162
This latest gfs run appears to show a much more potent system...
1068. Patrap
Quoting 1062. EpsilonWeather:

Can we drop the global warming feud already? Especially when we actually have something to watch in the Atlantic and Pacific.



Right if you guys want two talk about GW take it two this blog. That is what its there for

Link
Formidable storm almost thinking "Bill" like.

It being this far away from the trough wouldn't it be to far away to be pushed out to sea or is the trough going to linger ?

Quoting 1030. ncstorm:

latest run from the experimental HWRF Portal is excited about the potential set up for the atlantic

the site is pretty slow..only on 00z run..


Most bullish GFS run yet.

Should eventually run into the TUTT and dissipate.

Quoting 1070. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Formidable storm almost thinking "Bill" like.


the track will be identical to bills only further west a tad bit. personally I would hate that track but anything 7 days out is far from being true
1074. Gearsts
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Kelvin wave is on the way.



Looks relatively low amplitude, but should be strong enough to cause TCG within the next 120 hours. Whatever forms should have a few days of favorable conditions.
1078. ncstorm
Quoting 1071. weatherlover94:

It being this far away from the trough wouldn't it be to far away to be pushed out to sea or is the trough going to linger ?




that was the last frame for the HWRF and the 06z run isnt posted yet..we will have to wait and see what happens with the potential development..storm has to develop first..we got a lot of players but yet no game yet..
1079. jpsb
Quoting 1064. JohnLonergan:



Here's the corrected versions of that graph:



and the explanation of Spencer's "errors":

Roy Spencer's latest deceit and deception


Sorry I can't let that one go by unanswered.

Spencer received a B.S. in atmospheric sciences from the University of Michigan in 1978 and his M.S. and Ph.D. in meteorology from the University of Wisconsin–Madison in 1980 and 1982.[2] His doctoral thesis was titled, A case study of African wave structure and energetics during Atlantic transit.[4]

After receiving his Ph.D. in 1982, Spencer worked for two years as a research scientist in the Space Science and Engineering Center at the University of Wisconsin–Madison.[2] He then joined NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center as a visiting scientist in 1984,[3] where he later became Senior Scientist for Climate Studies.[2] After leaving NASA in 2001, Spencer has been Principal Research Scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UHA).[2] As well as his position at UHA, Spencer is currently the U.S. Science Team leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) on NASA's Aqua satellite, a position he has held since 1994.[2]


In 2001, he designed an algorithm to detect tropical cyclones and estimate their maximum sustained wind speed using the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU).[5][6]


Spencer has been a member of several science teams: the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Space Station Accommodations Analysis Study Team, Science Steering Group for TRMM, TOVS Pathfinder Working Group, NASA Headquarters Earth Science and Applications Advisory Subcommittee, and two National Research Council (NRC) study panels.[2]


He is on the board of directors of the George C. Marshall Institute,[7] and on the board of advisors of the Cornwall Alliance for the Stewardship of Creation.[8]

Spencer's research work is funded by NASA, NOAA, DOE and the DOT.[3]

Source is Wiki
Quoting 1057. VAbeachhurricanes:

12z GFS 96 hours Islands need to probably start watching with consistency beginning.



Well...is there any other model besides GFS that develops this?
Quoting 1074. Gearsts:




wow down to 993 mb maybe a hurricane!! the new runs keep getting bigger
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Well...is there any other model besides GFS that develops this?


FIM8, FIM9, HWRF, NAVGEM, and the UKMET

Would like to see the ECM develop this.
Quoting 1070. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Formidable storm almost thinking "Bill" like.




Bill cut it close before recurve. Lucky that it did not make landfall.

Been reviewing the set up that put Hugo into SC 25 years ago. High to the north, Upper level low to SW.
Ok so those runs show it will be kicked out by the trough ?

Quoting 1078. ncstorm:



that was the last frame for the HWRF and the 06z run isnt posted yet..we will have to wait and see what happens with the potential development..storm has to develop first..we got a lot of players but yet no game yet..
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Formidable storm almost thinking "Bill" like.



No where near as awesome as Bill. It's more like Leslie in 2012.
Quoting 1061. wx486:

Record quiet hurricane season expected for record warm year 2014... Skeptics don't trust the "science" because it conflicts with eyewitness anecdotal news observations that it's not warming. Instead of addressing this concern, the scientists dismiss it as a conspiracy theory held by idiots. Instead of building trust and explaining, the scientists change the theory's name from global warming to climate change. There's no evidence of the catastrophic predictions. If temperatures have warmed, you would expect more hurricanes lasting at least 2 days. The scholarly research says better observations explain the increase in short-lived tropical storms. This very article contradicts the so-called temperature record. And the science is settled? That's what the Pope said about the sun going around the earth. Just look at the sky and see all the evidence. Climate change scientists think they're a modern-day Galileo. But they are funded from the Pope (government) and have the same talking points.


Say what??
1087. Gearsts
Quoting 1077. Climate175:



its a big storm
1089. ncstorm
Quoting 1084. weatherlover94:

Ok so those runs show it will be kicked out by the trough ?




again..that was the last frame of the run I posted..

it didnt show anything but it what it showed in the last frame..we will have to wait on the latest runs to load up on the website to see what could happen..
Quoting 1082. Stormchaser2007:



FIM8, FIM9, HWRF, NAVGEM, and the UKMET

Would like to see the ECM develop this.


Hi 2007.Do you have a good image that you always post of the area SW of CV?
It looks like the shear is just to high and dry air is just to much for this ...to me thats how it looks....the models like the looks of things coming up but the Atlantic is going to have to moisten up a heck of a lot and shear is gonna have to drop off quite a bit
Strengthening as it faces off with King TUTT.



how realistic of a solution is the GFS in terms of 500mb steering... has a trough sitting on the east coast for a whole week without ever moving. no wonder why it has a tendency to recurve everything out to sea. I'm not buying the track at all
1094. ncstorm
12z Navgem is running now

hour 60
Thanks NC sorry I got a little confused there

Quoting 1089. ncstorm:



again..that was the last frame of the run I posted..

it didnt show anything but it what it showed in the last frame..we will have to wait on the latest runs to load up on the website to see what could happen..
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Hi 2007.Do you have a good image that you always post of the area SW of CV?


Nothing really there yet.



1097. ncstorm
Quoting 1095. weatherlover94:

Thanks NC sorry I got a little confused there




No worries :)
1099. JRRP
is the second run that GFS shows a hurricane
1100. ncstorm
12z CMC is running now

24 hour
1101. Gearsts
Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice · 3m
Strong CCKW pushing across MDR this week.. Watch for tropical development after its passage
1102. PR51
As per GFS 12Z the future storm will be a fisher one... Let's see. Here in PR really need a deluge in order to remedy a severe drought.
12Z too much east ... lol
1104. JRRP

who will think that this will become a hurricane
Quoting 1102. PR51:

As per GFS 12Z the future storm will be a fisher one... Let's see. Here in PR really need a deluge in order to remedy a severe drought.
not going to be a fish storm because anything 7 days out is silly to predict. just know something will be heading towards the islands perferably further south and west
1106. ncstorm
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1153 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VALID 12Z WED JUL 30 2014 - 12Z SUN AUG 03 2014


STATUS QUO AT THE MEDIUM RANGE. THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH
PATTERN FILLS WITH TIME, BUT STAYS PUT. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM
THE VARIOUS MODELING CENTERS ARE DUPLICATES OF ONE ANOTHER, WITH
ONLY THE OPERATIONAL/DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS MARKED BY ANY
VARIANCE. THE SPREAD IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS IS CONFINED TO
CANADA, WHERE THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE NEXT NORTHERN
NORTHERN STREAM AMPLIFICATION THAN THE GFS. WENT WITH THE MEANS
SINCE THE AREA OF SENSITIVITY IN THE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE
CANADIAN FLOW IS WITHIN THE ARCTIC CIRCLE--NEVER AN EASY REGION TO
DIAGNOSE.
1107. Gearsts
Quoting 1102. PR51:

As per GFS 12Z the future storm will be a fisher one... Let's see. Here in PR really need a deluge in order to remedy a severe drought.
Don't focus on the track yet, good thing is that it shows a decent TC and that's about it.
Way too early to think about a track for this. Let's let it form first. Initial impressions would be that this should recurve before reaching the US, but much can change at that time range. It's also possible this system ends up weaker and further west initially, and ultimately meets its death in the Caribbean due to shear. I would say the odds are at least 50/50 that something develops though. I agree it would be nice to see the ECMWF on board, but we've seen it miss a few developments in the past couple years.
Quoting 1082. Stormchaser2007:



FIM8, FIM9, HWRF, NAVGEM, and the UKMET

Would like to see the ECM develop this.


The CMC also develops this. Current CMC run is much more agressive too, developing it into a weak TS in about 3 days so far. The 00Z run developed it into a TD in about 5 days time and nothing more. The model consensus on this is getting better with each new run.
Quoting 1103. CaribBoy:

12Z too much east ... lol


It'll flip flop back and forth, just keep watchin
Quoting 1093. wunderweatherman123:

how realistic of a solution is the GFS in terms of 500mb steering... has a trough sitting on the east coast for a whole week without ever moving. no wonder why it has a tendency to recurve everything out to sea. I'm not buying the track at all

Well...we've pretty much had 500 mb truoghing over the eastern US every single day for the month of July...so its possible that pattern continues to last. However Kori did post a blog last night where some long-range runs finally move out the 500 mb troughing after 7 to 10 days. So I wouldn't be surprised if this thing gets recurved out to sea...but then the storms after that it will be hard to say...
1112. ncstorm
96 hours
12z Navgem
let's get an invest before we predict it's long range track. for now the islands should monitor it. beyond that, I find the fish storm solution "fishy" as the GFS shows a trough just hanging on the east coast for almost a week. That seems very plausible right? (sarcastic)
Quoting 1088. hurricanes2018:


its a big storm


I was thinking the same. Look at it compared to the state of SC. Could grow in size as it traverses poleward.

Of course, it's not even "real" yet. lol

That set up would be quite a swell producer, central FL to OBX. Points northward depending on when/if it makes a turn.
1115. Gearsts
The retarded GEM model also has it.
Quoting 1111. NCHurricane2009:


Well...we've pretty much had 500 mb truoghing over the eastern US every single day for the month of July...so its possible that pattern continues to last. However Kori did post a blog last night where some long-range runs finally move out the 500 mb troughing after 7 to 10 days. So I wouldn't be surprised if this thing gets recurved out to sea...but then the storms after that it will be hard to say...
Tops have warmed on the storms/moisture moving into Sooo Cal from Arizona and Mexico.........hope it still triggers some rain showers in the area.

Quoting 1111. NCHurricane2009:


Well...we've pretty much had 500 mb truoghing over the eastern US every single day for the month of July...so its possible that pattern continues to last. However Kori did post a blog last night where some long-range runs finally move out the 500 mb troughing after 7 to 10 days. So I wouldn't be surprised if this thing gets recurved out to sea...but then the storms after that it will be hard to say...


Not really moving out but retrograding to the west as this would show.

some turning is apparent in the lower cloud field near 10N 32W. Some indication that cyclogenesis is beginning to take place.
1120. hydrus
Quoting 1118. VAbeachhurricanes:



Not really moving out but retrograding to the west as this would show.


Which would be an indication of the Bermuda High building westward. The ECMWF was showing this last night.
1122. txjac
Quoting 1117. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Tops have warmed on the storms/moisture moving into Sooo Cal from Arizona and Mexico.........hope it still triggers some rain showers in the area.




I was thinking about you and Pedley last night as I saw this storm in Arizona and looking like it was coming your way. I hope enough of it stays together so California can get some rain relief. The water rationing and fines for over consumption are terrible to see
Dry air is still an issue with this potential cyclone. As you can see, there's lot of it.

1124. ncstorm
132 hours


1125. JRRP
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 9 min
A number of GEFS members now bring current "pre"-invest o/MDR to hurricane strength. If develops, likely a fish storm
GEOS-5 is showing that storm lasting longer than yesterday.. Going a little further north. Comes across the islands as a sheared TD or Tropical Storm & then gets torn up on Hispaniola.

Next one could be a fish, but don't expect all fishes.
If you run this loop you'll see the trough hang out on the East Coast but begins to lift towards the end of the run, but at that point the storm is already nearing the westerlies.
Hey folks -- if this storm forms and hits the islands, it is NOT a fish. Just because it doesn't hit the U.S., doesn't make it a "fish" storm... lets wait until it develops and models come into agreement on a forecast before jumping to conclusions.
1130. ncstorm
12z CMC
60 hours
1131. hydrus
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
let's get an invest before we predict it's long range track. for now the islands should monitor it. beyond that, I find the fish storm solution "fishy" as the GFS shows a trough just hanging on the east coast for almost a week. That seems very plausible right? (sarcastic)


I know you want this to go into the Caribbean, but the truth is that if you take ten seconds to look at the environment (thermodynamic envio as well as UL) you'd see that this wouldn't even make it past Hispaniola before it gets obliterated.

There's some incredibly stable air located in the Caribbean and pretty much everything that gets near that will, undoubtedly, dissipate.

Plus, the ECMWF, GFS and CMC all show the trough in the east hanging around for seven days. The best shot at seeing another hurricane in the Atlantic is if this goes north of the islands and heads OTS.

Quoting 1082. Stormchaser2007:



FIM8, FIM9, HWRF, NAVGEM, and the UKMET

Would like to see the ECM develop this.


I agree. Maybe it will show in the 12z, the fact that nothing is in the ECM as of yet leaves me to be a bit skeptical about it.
1134. ncstorm
Quoting 1129. Joshfsu123:

Hey folks -- if this storm forms and hits the islands, it is NOT a fish. Just because it doesn't hit the U.S., doesn't make it a "fish" storm... lets wait until it develops and models come into agreement on a forecast before jumping to conclusions.


wise words..
1135. ackee
I think this tropical wave is large poorly organized will take sometime to get it acts togother the quicker it devlops the more I am going to belive the GFS the longer it takes I think this could be similar to TD#2 I have seen before where all models show devlopment execpt the Euro and the Euro turns out to be right
Has there ever been any analysis/correlation between reduced sunspot activity..... example" Maunder minimum". and potential ramifications on Atlantic or Pacific hurricane/cyclone occurance or severity?
When it's wet and only 73 degrees outside in NC, you know you're in a major trough....
1138. ncstorm
168 hours
Quoting 1122. txjac:



I was thinking about you and Pedley last night as I saw this storm in Arizona and looking like it was coming your way. I hope enough of it stays together so California can get some rain relief. The water rationing and fines for over consumption are terrible to see



Thanks! Every bit of rain will help! Even a little shower to wet all the vegatation/brush in the mountains where I live would be great. It's stating to cloud over..........crossing my fingers!
Turns into a decent hurricane as it moves out to sea.

1141. ncstorm
last frame
1142. JRRP
now CMC looks more razonable
12z CMC now shows the pouch becoming a tropical storm.
1144. ncstorm
Quoting 1137. Bluestorm5:

When it's wet and only 73 degrees outside in NC, you know you're in a major trough....


will it be there 2 weeks from now?
1145. txjac
Quoting 1139. HurricaneHunterJoe:




Thanks! Every bit of rain will help! Even a little shower to wet all the vegatation/brush in the mountains where I live would be great. It's stating to cloud over..........crossing my fingers!


I'll be wishcasting some rain for you.
Still to early to know for sure this is long range


Quoting 1140. CybrTeddy:

Turns into a decent hurricane as it moves out to sea.


1147. ncstorm
hour 84
12z CMC
i just wonder if the cold winter will have an effect on the sea temps.
I haven't paid much attention to the ECMWF for the East Pacific, but it missed Tropical Depression Two and has been performing poorly in the West Pacific. It means more to me that the GFS and many of its ensembles agree that we'll get a bonafide tropical storm out of this.
Quoting 1144. ncstorm:



will it be there 2 weeks from now?


GFS is suggesting the trough will stick where it is for the next several days while possible cyclone recurves away from us. I'm ready for cooler weather :)
12z NAVGEM has a hurricane moving though the islands.

1152. MahFL
Quoting 1070. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Formidable storm almost thinking "Bill" like.




That's a classic big Cape Verde hurricane, if I ever saw one.
12z GFS overview

Quoting 1118. VAbeachhurricanes:



Not really moving out but retrograding to the west as this would show.



Right...Kori was saying the long range runs retrograde it west. This is a really interesting moment because a lot of the computer model runs are picking up on this potential...but when I look at how the tropical wave looks right now I don't really see anything organized.
Quoting 1151. Stormchaser2007:

12z NAVGEM has a hurricane moving though the islands.


Is it me or does it seem to be slower movement than the GFS?
Quoting 1132. Stormchaser2007:



I know you want this to go into the Caribbean, but the truth is that if you take ten seconds to look at the environment (thermodynamic envio as well as UL) you'd see that this wouldn't even make it past Hispaniola before it gets obliterated.

There's some incredibly stable air located in the Caribbean and pretty much everything that gets near that will, undoubtedly, dissipate.

Plus, the ECMWF, GFS and CMC all show the trough in the east hanging around for seven days. The best shot at seeing another hurricane in the Atlantic is if this goes north of the islands and heads OTS.




So many what ifs...I think we may have a real interesting one to watch here. I'm thinking the trough retrogrades to the west more quickly than forecast, the storm moves a little more slowly westward or some combination of both. It could potentially end up in the vicinity of the Bahamas as a very large storm. Thinking "Bill" type track.

But, hey, we don't even have an Invest yet.
Quoting 1148. donincardona:

i just wonder if the cold winter will have an effect on the sea temps.
1158. ncstorm
Quoting 1150. Bluestorm5:



GFS is suggesting the trough will stick where it is for the next several days while possible cyclone recurves away from us. I'm ready for cooler weather :)


I believe the GFS has a cold bias to it..but just as the models were stating no development for the next two weeks and that suddenly has been switched so could the pattern of "troughiness"..even if the trough is sitting there doesnt mean all is well either..2010 Earl in point..the NHC thought the trough would turn Earl much earlier and it didnt..

6z FIM-9 goes through Puerto Rico as a weak system. Looks like weaker system will move more south and west and stronger system north and east.

1160. ncstorm
12z CMC
hour 126
1161. JRRP
Probably would have a track more westward than Bill's...

Something like Earl's path?
Quoting 1156. HaoleboySurfEC:



So many what ifs...I think we may have a real interesting one to watch here. I'm thinking the trough retrogrades to the west more quickly than forecast, the storm moves a little more slowly westward or some combination of both. It could potentially end up in the vicinity of the Bahamas as a very large storm. Thinking "Bill" type track.

But, hey, we don't even have an Invest yet.


Bill never came close to the Bahamas
1164. ncstorm
12z CMC


12z CMC track

1166. ncstorm




1167. Gearsts
Infrared makes this tropical wave look disorganized. In visible light...you can see the system better. You can sort of see cyclonic twisting in the clouds at a location just northeast of 30W-10N in this satellite picture. Does anyone else agree?
1169. txjac
Quoting 1162. EpsilonWeather:

Probably would have a track more westward than Bill's...




That's a pretty long track ...if this "thing"that hasn't formed yet follow this there will be many, many happy bloggers here. Keep everyone chatting for days on end
1170. Gearsts
Quoting 1149. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I haven't paid much attention to the ECMWF for the East Pacific, but it missed Tropical Depression Two and has been performing poorly in the West Pacific. It means more to me that the GFS and many of its ensembles agree that we'll get a bonafide tropical storm out of this.
And what do you think the future of this system will be compare to extd2?
1171. JRRP
mmm may be hurricane watch later this week
Link
Link
right now storm going out to sea by Monday morning its going to tell you its going to hit land.. who knows
Call me crazy, but even with Isabel, Ivan, Igor, and other storms of the sort, my favorite storm since 2000 is probably Bill.



I'd like another Bill.
lots of speculation about the timing of what will be 93L the next 24 hours. most of the models are tracking something which has not even a pre existing spin. we have to wait for the low pressure are to form first. The area is suspicious and I expect tropical genesis from it in the near future.
It seems like the east coast trough has been around for years, for the most part. I don't get it. What is causing this trough to want to park itself along the east coast more frequently?
1176. sar2401
Well, I see the blog is nothing but sunshine and lollipops, as usual. :-)

In other weather news, SE Alabama is under a heat advisory. Since it's 95 with a dewpoint of 77, that equates to a heat index of 111, so that's one forecast that has verified. It's a shock just to go out on the porch for five minutes. However, a cold front begins to approach the state early tomorrow morning. It should be down my way in the afternoon, leading to a "Slight" risk of severe weather per the SPC. The low today has been 76 and it should be about the same tomorrow. By Wednesday, the low should 60! So we go from a heat wave to a possible outbreak of severe storms and then a cold wave in three days...or at least an Alabama version of a cold wave. Not bad for late July.

BTW, keep an eye on this cold front and where it actually ends up. If it really gets out into the Gulf, the tropical weather focus may shift rather quickly from that formless mass of clouds in the ITCZ to up here. It might be an interesting week overall.
1177. MahFL
Quoting 1168. NCHurricane2009:
You can sort of see cyclonic twisting in the clouds at a location just northeast of 30W-10N in this satellite picture. Does anyone else agree?


I think the sat views are not good enough yet, need to wait til the wave gets fully into the range of GOES East, which should happen in roughly 24 hours.
Quoting 1156. HaoleboySurfEC:



So many what ifs...I think we may have a real interesting one to watch here. I'm thinking the trough retrogrades to the west more quickly than forecast, the storm moves a little more slowly westward or some combination of both. It could potentially end up in the vicinity of the Bahamas as a very large storm. Thinking "Bill" type track.

But, hey, we don't even have an Invest yet.


Whoops correction, "Bill on the Brain". Meant "Irene" type track or better yet as I see someone else posted an "Earl" type track.

Bill produced great surf, hence "Bill on the Brain." Especially OBX northward through New England. lol
Quoting 1174. stoormfury:

lots of speculation about the timing of what will be 93L the next 24 hours. most of the models are tracking something which has not even a pre existing spin. we have to wait for the low pressure are to form first. The area is suspicious and I expect tropical genesis from it in the near future.

I think we may actually have a pre-existing spin...you can see a twist in the clouds in the visible at a location just northeast of 30W-10N in this visible satellite frame.
Quoting 1175. lobdelse81:

It seems like the east coast trough has been around for years, for the most part. I don't get it. What is causing this trough to want to park itself along the east coast more frequently?
I say Mother Nature, some will say HAARP. :P
1181. ackee
When will the TW near the CV Island become 93L ?

A 24 hours

B 48 hours

C 72 hours

D 96 hours




Quoting 1170. Gearsts:

And what do you think the future of this system will be compare to extd2?

Depends on its track. If it moves into the Caribbean Sea, King TUTT will shear it to death, like TD2. If it clips or passes north of the island, like the pattern would suggest, shear should remain generally favorable and this might actually have a future. The strong CCKW should negate some of the negative effects of dry air as long as it's around.
1183. JRRP

GFS DOOM forecast for T-Wave be like



XD
Quoting 1179. NCHurricane2009:


I think we may actually have a pre-existing spin...you can see a twist in the clouds in the visible at a location just northeast of 30W-10N in this visible satellite frame.


I agree, although it's not fully discernible yet because the imagery only updates every 6 hours.
That trough looks like it's hanging back over the Ohio River Valley through the Mississippi Valley. Hope I spelled that right.

Quoting 1175. lobdelse81:

It seems like the east coast trough has been around for years, for the most part. I don't get it. What is causing this trough to want to park itself along the east coast more frequently?


The east coast trough has always been a semi-permanent feature. It is usually there to turn storms away, thats why its more likely for MDR storms to recurve than to hit the US. Always has been.
although I indicated earlier there may be one , I was not too sure. thanks for the info.
Quoting 1140. CybrTeddy:

Turns into a decent hurricane as it moves out to sea.



My way of understanding this and thinking may be totally wrong, but I want to just throw this out:

Look at that cell of high pressure over the Carolinas: just like it was with Andrew. That was an extremely unusal path for a storm like that to get that far north without being pulled out to sea. I know this is all from a layman's perspective, but I guess the trough back then was not strong enough, and Andrew got caught in the flow on the backside with the high pressure then building in.
1190. MahFL
Might be the beginning of something on here, but the view only updates once every 3 hours.

Quoting 1140. CybrTeddy:

Turns into a decent hurricane as it moves out to sea.



yawn
1192. SLINKY
Quoting 1079. jpsb:



Sorry I can't let that one go by unanswered....


If you simply take Dr. Spencer's own UAH data chart:

Between 1983 and 2013, the temperature range in general is around 0.45-0.50C. Even taking his 13-month running average values, the minimum temperature difference is around 0.40C. So how can he produce a chart that only shows a 0.3C temperature change from the very same data set? Very simply - by manipulating this own data to meet his biased viewpoint and ignoring his own raw data chart. He appears to manipulate of his own data in order to try to satisfy his beloved followers but that action certainly affects his credibility on the subject in my eyes.

By the way I am also a meteorologist with over 40 years experience in analyzing and researching this type of data. Unlike Dr. Spencer, I don't depend on receiving funds from any group of scientifically questionable individuals in order to spread misinformation on the internet. I conduct my own personal research on this subject for free just for the sake of my own scientific inquisitiveness. I am especially disappointed that scientists that should really know better, like Dr. Spencer and other list of characters in that arena (http://climateconference.heartland.org/speakers/) that attend those bogus yearly climate change conferences (i.e., ICCC sponsored by the Heartland Institute and other biased cosponsors (http://climateconference.heartland.org/cosponsors -2/)) in order to spread their misinformation (like the questionable chart you keep using here) are doing a complete disservice to the general public.
A lot of the models seem to be really on board with a storm of some sort.

I'd like to get a low first before I say anything.

So here I wait.
A really good scenario is that this thing begins recurving just NE of the Caribbean islands so that we can give some drought relief to Puerto Rico with some outer feeder bands without wind damage...
A general rule of thumb my Dad always states for us in the Gulf is that when they come off Africa and go into the Caribbean and south of Cuba, that's when we have to watch out.
1196. sar2401
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Infrared makes this tropical wave look disorganized. In visible light...you can see the system better. You can sort of see cyclonic twisting in the clouds at a location just northeast of 30W-10N in this satellite picture. Does anyone else agree?

I see a bunch of general whirling and twisting all over the entire basin. Lots of little features and boundaries but nothing that I see indicates low level circulation in the area of 30W. Now, look at that really nice low north of PR. If I see something like that at 30W, then I'll get excited. :-)

Looks favorable to me.
1199. MahFL
That might be it top right on here.

Quoting 1193. JrWeathermanFL:

A lot of the models seem to be really on board with a storm of some sort.

I'd like to get a low first before I say anything.

So here I wait.

I know, I have this deja-vu feeling. In the last few years, I remember there was a system like this where most of the models were latching on but nothing had developed yet. The storm turned out to be a significant hurricane, I just can't remember which one it was though.
Quoting 1185. EpsilonWeather:


I agree, although it's not fully discernible yet because the imagery only updates every 6 hours.

What we really need is some decent satellite imagery in this part of the world. Why can't we get something that updates like the GOES...especially when the origins of many tropical cyclones occur here. I mean we are in the year 2014 for crying out loud. (Although the imagination of some in the 60s, 70s, or 80s predicted we'd have flying cars by now). I wonder which will happen first...flying cars or good satellite imagery over Africa?
Quoting 1195. opal92nwf:

A general rule of thumb my Dad always states for us in the Gulf is that when they come off Africa and go into the Caribbean and south of Cuba, that's when we have to watch out.

Not with this storm, if this stays south and enters the Caribbean, it'll be mercilessly ripped to shreds by the TUTT cell.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave is located several hundred miles southwest of the
Cape Verde Islands. The associated shower activity remains limited
and disorganized, and development should be slow to occur over the
next couple of days. By the middle of this week, however,
environmental conditions are expected to become conducive for
gradual development over the central tropical Atlantic as the
system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

1204. JRRP
Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Quoting 1201. NCHurricane2009:


What we really need is some decent satellite imagery in this part of the world. Why can't we get something that updates like the GOES...especially when the origins of many tropical cyclones occur here. I mean we are in the year 2014 for crying out loud. (Although the imagination of some in the 60s, 70s, or 80s predicted we'd have flying cars by now). I wonder which will happen first...flying cars or good satellite imagery over Africa?


No reason for it really.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave is located several hundred miles southwest of the
Cape Verde Islands. The associated shower activity remains limited
and disorganized, and development should be slow to occur over the
next couple of days. By the middle of this week, however,
environmental conditions are expected to become conducive for
gradual development over the central tropical Atlantic as the
system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Quoting 1201. NCHurricane2009:


What we really need is some decent satellite imagery in this part of the world. Why can't we get something that updates like the GOES...especially when the origins of many tropical cyclones occur here. I mean we are in the year 2014 for crying out loud. (Although the imagination of some in the 60s, 70s, or 80s predicted we'd have flying cars by now). I wonder which will happen first...flying cars or good satellite imagery over Africa?

We are only 1 year away from Hoverboards according to 1989.
That jump from 0 to 40 really tells you something.
I wonder what early-mid September will look like for this year.
Quoting 1200. opal92nwf:


I know, I have this deja-vu feeling. In the last few years, I remember there was a system like this where most of the models were latching on but nothing had developed yet. The storm turned out to be a significant hurricane, I just can't remember which one it was though.


I remember in October one year, the GFS predicted a 930mb hurricane going into Miami. The next run it was just a low.
But that got everyone out of the rabbit hole saying DEAR GOSH LOOK AT THIS for a while.

Quoting 1196. sar2401:


I see a bunch of general whirling and twisting all over the entire basin. Lots of little features and boundaries but nothing that I see indicates low level circulation in the area of 30W. Now, look at that really nice low north of PR. If I see something like that at 30W, then I'll get excited. :-)




And if the WV map doesn't change in front of the storm, then we have shear and moist air in the Caribbean, and no shear with dry air above it.

That figures..
Quoting 1202. EpsilonWeather:


Not with this storm, if this stays south and enters the Caribbean, it'll be mercilessly ripped to shreds by the TUTT cell.
not neccesarily. if it takes a southern path and is already a decent TS, it will bust the TUTT and get an upper level high to build around it. we don't even have an invest and we are talking about a long term track.. let's get an invest first
I'll tell you what, the clock is ticking for FL.

I'd say if not this year, then next year at the latest.
1213. Patrap


Quoting 1202. EpsilonWeather:


Not with this storm, if this stays south and enters the Caribbean, it'll be mercilessly ripped to shreds by the TUTT cell.
That is not a certainty either. I've seen TUTT cells move out of the way or lift north to provide good vetilation aloft for tropical systems before. They don't always sit in one place. We'll see we have at least 5-7 days before it approaches the islands to see what the environment will be like. I forsee the track and intensity doing wind-shield wipers before then.
Quoting 1197. opal92nwf:

Looks favorable to me.




This is better two used


Quoting 1211. wunderweatherman123:

not neccesarily. if it takes a southern path and is already a decent TS, it will bust the TUTT and get an upper level high to build around it. we don't even have an invest and we are talking about a long term track.. let's get an invest first
Or it might pump the ridge. :P
1217. JRRP
1219. Patrap
Hernan

I still have to pinch myself that we had a Cat. 2 on the Outer Banks on the 4th of July already.
So the NHC says it'll be in more favorable conditions around mid week...

And now we wait some more..
Surface trade winds are on the order of 20-25 knots in the Caribbean. Unless this is a well-developed hurricane, don't expect anything to survive in the Caribbean, even in the very off chance that shear miraculously lessens.


Not sure if i like this graphic or not...
Quoting 1212. opal92nwf:

I'll tell you what, the clock is ticking for FL.

I'd say if not this year, then next year at the latest.

Not to be a Debby Downer but the clock has been ticking for a while with Florida. Tons of people have said its got to be this year or next year. Even last year I believe I said "I've got a bad feeling about Florida this year" and nothing really happened besides Andrea. So I think Florida has just as much chance as any other year to be hit. It all depends if Mother Nature wants to say Haii to Florida or not.
Quoting 1216. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Or it might pump the ridge. :P


oh no...
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
For the U.S., the locations that have the best chance of a seeing a tropical system (storm or hurricane) are : Miami, Florida - 48% chance; Cape Hatteras, North Carolina - 48% chance; and San Juan, Puerto Rico - 42% chance.

Probability of a Tropical Storm or Hurricane will affect (within 100 miles) the area during any given season.



Probability of a Hurricane directly affecting (with in 60 miles)an area during any given season.



http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/G11.html
Quoting lobdelse81:
It seems like the east coast trough has been around for years, for the most part. I don't get it. What is causing this trough to want to park itself along the east coast more frequently?


Something is forcing the west coast and east pacific ridge and the east coast trough is a response to that. This has been unusually persistent but it is a common pattern.

The subtropical high in the southeast has been anomalously weak much of the summer. I do not know why.
Quoting JRRP:
mmm may be hurricane watch later this week
Link
Link
Nice,if it does develops , hopefully, it will skip direct hit to the northern Isle, but provide enough rain to all, fingers cross here...
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
12z NAVGEM has a hurricane moving though the islands.

Maybe an strong "Bertha"?