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June 2014: Earth's 3rd Consecutive Warmest Month on Record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:22 AM GMT on July 24, 2014

June 2014 was Earth's warmest June since records began in 1880, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) this week. NASA rated June 2014 a bit cooler: the 3rd warmest June on record. According to NOAA, the planet has now had three consecutive warmest months on record--April (which was tied for the warmest April), and now May and June of 2014. This is the first time Earth has experienced three consecutive warmest months on record since a four-month stretch during March, April, June, and June 2010. Global ocean temperatures during June 2014 had the greatest departure from average for warmth of any month in recorded history: 0.64°C (1.15°F) above the 20th century average. The previous record of +0.59°C (1.06°F) was set in June 1998 and tied in October 2003, July 2009, and May 2014. Global land temperatures in June 2014 were the 7th warmest on record, and the year-to-date January - June period was the 3rd warmest on record for the globe. Global satellite-measured temperatures in June 2014 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 4th warmest in the 36-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH).


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for June 2014, the warmest June for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Large regions of Earth’s oceans experienced record-warm conditions. New Zealand had its warmest June since records began in 1909. No record cold was observed on the planet. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

Notable weather events of June 2014
According to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, June 2014 was the wettest June on record for portions of Minnesota, South Dakota, and Iowa. A COOP weather station four miles west-northwest of Canton, SD received 19.65” of rain during the month, setting an official new state monthly precipitation record. Previous record: 18.61” in Deadwood, SD in May 1946. India had the opposite problem: the monsoon brought anemic rains that were just 57% of average for the month.



One billion-dollar weather disaster in June 2014
Only one billion-dollar weather-related disaster hit the Earth during June 2014, a severe thunderstorm outbreak across Germany, France and Belgium, according to the June 2014 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield. The total number of billion-dollar weather disasters for the first half of 2014 is eleven, which is well behind the record-setting pace of 2013, which had seventeen such disasters by the end of June, and ended up with a record 41 by the end of the year.


Disaster 1. An outbreak of severe thunderstorms across Germany, France and Belgium on June 8 - 10, 2014 killed six people in Germany and did $2.75 billion in damage. Hail up to 7.0 cm (2.75") in diameter and winds beyond 145 kph (90 mph) were recorded. Extensive crop damage was also noted in southwestern France around Bordeaux, Cognac, and Languedoc where swaths of vineyards were destroyed. In this image, a boy walks next to a tree that fell on a building on June 9, 2014 in Cognac, France a few hours after a violent thunderstorm. Image credit: NICOLAS TUCAT/AFP/Getty Images.

An El Niño Watch continues
June 2014 featured neutral El Niño conditions in the equatorial Eastern Pacific, and sea surface temperatures have been hovering near the threshold for El Niño, +0.5°C from average, from late April through mid-July. However, the atmosphere has not been behaving like it should during an El Niño event. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)--the difference in surface pressure between Darwin, Australia and the island of Tahiti--tends to drop to negative values during the presence of an El Niño atmosphere, but was positive during June. However, the SOI became negative at the beginning of July, and has remained negative through this week, which may be an indication that the atmosphere is beginning to respond. NOAA is continuing its El Niño Watch, giving a 70% chance that an El Niño event will occur this summer, with an 80% chance by fall.

Arctic sea ice falls to 6th lowest June extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during June was the 6th lowest in the 36-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Average June temperatures over parts of the Arctic Ocean were from 1 to 2 degrees Celsius (2 to 4 degrees  Fahrenheit) below the 1981 to 2010 average, keeping extreme ice melt from occurring. This is in stark contrast to the unusually warm summers of many recent years, particularly 2012 and 2007, when air temperatures over the Arctic Ocean were up to 4 to 6 degrees Celsius (7 to 11 degrees Fahrenheit), respectively, above average.

Most impressive weather video of June 2014

Video 1. An EF-4 tornado hit a farm near Woonsocket, South Dakota, on June 18, 2014. The tornado had a dramatic set of suction vorticies--smaller vortices embedded within the tornado’s circulation, which can add over 100 mph to the ground-relative wind. The suction vortices are particularly striking about 2:00 into the video, and contribute to heavy damage to a farm about 3:00 in. Video taken by Dick McGowan and Shay Phillips of Team Dominator of TVNWeather.com.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

2014, The Year the CO2 induced Climate Forcing's strike back.





Quoting 499. nigel20:



Yes, brine disposal.


Yea, ship that up here. Always running out of salt and brine in the winter.
Quoting 484. allancalderini:

Please, I read doomsday predictions in the comments section of CNN every day so its nothing new to me. Lol did you get rain today?

LOLx1000
Reminds me of when CNN stated that Grand Cayman was off the map just after Hurricane Ivan which was sorta true but CNN just uped the drama by 10

Quoting 485. Bluestorm5:


Nerves of moving into college goes away after first class.

Yeah but for some who haven't really chosen a major and who have been hopping from one thing to the next for 2 years unsure of them self nerves don't go away till after first year and not only that but gets people depressed amongst other things at the start of the second

Quoting 489. redwagon:



Dang straight. If the same cyclone made the splash, then the trek along the ATL and 'dissipated' around the straits of FL then flashed back up, the FL people would be up in arms over such an entity.


My point is people need to stop assuming that I want a storm to hit Cayman. Which by the way I do not... Well at the moment I would not mind a strong tropical wave or a weak TD or even a wet cold front, they would help mitigate the drought and heat wave problem we recently been having. But that's not the point. I've had my fair share plus more of storms plus some extremely bad ones. I don't want another hurricane, unlike some people on this blog that wants a Cat 5 to come over there house making donuts around them so they can get tons of flooding rain.

Quoting 492. HurrMichaelOrl:


Tropical waves, as well as normal strong summer thunderstorms, regularly have gusts above 40mph. Not unusual at all.

An average tropical wave we would get maybe 25-30mph with maybe some gust 35mph
A strong tropical wave we would normally get 30-35mph
Not too often would we get tropical waves with wind at 40mph or higher and the ones we do get are either close to tropical cyclone status or just weaken from tropical cyclone to tropical wave
Quoting 497. redwagon:

Quoting 493. wunderkidcayman:

Extreme Moisture *just West* of the ATL.



Yeah your point?

This hurricane season sucks. Woulda probably been another 2009 if Arthur hadn't developed. I remember that nightmare.

Perhaps I'll migrate until the western Atlantic opens up with the possible upcoming pattern, if it ever even does. Maybe I should.
Quoting 504. wunderkidcayman:


Yeah your point?




I just find it interesting the EPAC is in heavy-duty suds cycle, while a thin landmass wx-border away,
the WATL is in the dry spin cycle.
Quoting KoritheMan:
This hurricane season sucks. Woulda probably been another 2009 if Arthur hadn't developed. I remember that nightmare.

Perhaps I'll migrate until the western Atlantic opens up with the possible upcoming pattern, if it ever even does. Maybe I should.

Migrate to the western Pacific?
Quoting 506. redwagon:



I just find it interesting the EPAC is in heavy-duty suds cycle, while a thin landmass wx-border away,
the WATL is in the dry spin cycle.




What's this little blob just South of the Antilles?
Quoting 507. nigel20:


Migrate to the western Pacific?


I know a few people from NintendoAGE (yes I'm a nerd) that live in Taiwan. Maybe I'll take "refuge" there for summer typhoon fury.
510. SLU
Current conditions in Grenada (TGPY)

1:10 AM SE 49.5 mph Gusts 66.7 mph Heavy Rain Showers



Quoting 510. SLU:

Current conditions in Grenada (TGPY)

1:10 AM SE 49.5 mph 66.7 mph Heavy Rain Showers




Nice. Even if that's suspect, still nice.
Quoting 509. KoritheMan:



I know a few people from NintendoAGE (yes I'm a nerd) that live in Taiwan. Maybe I'll take "refuge" there for summer typhoon fury.


That's obvious just by you being here.
Quoting 505. KoritheMan:

This hurricane season sucks. Woulda probably been another 2009 if Arthur hadn't developed. I remember that nightmare.

Perhaps I'll migrate until the western Atlantic opens up with the possible upcoming pattern, if it ever even does. Maybe I should.

2009 was pretty interesting to me even though it wasn't very active. Bill was fun to track. Claudette spun up out of nowhere (but I didn't pay much attention back then, so maybe it didn't). Fred (remember the storm you said would absolutely not become a major hurricane..just picking ;)) became one of the easternmost-forming major hurricanes on record. Grace was the northeasternmost forming tropical cyclone on record.
Quoting 513. TropicalAnalystwx13:


2009 was pretty interesting to me even though it wasn't very active. Bill was fun to track. Claudette spun up out of nowhere (but I didn't pay much attention back then, so maybe it didn't). Fred (remember the storm you said would absolutely not become a major hurricane..just picking ;)) became one of the easternmost-forming major hurricanes on record. Grace was the northeasternmost forming tropical cyclone on record.


On your bold, check your wu-mail in a moment.
Quoting 513. TropicalAnalystwx13:


2009 was pretty interesting to me even though it wasn't very active. Bill was fun to track. Claudette spun up out of nowhere (but I didn't pay much attention back then, so maybe it didn't). Fred (remember the storm you said would absolutely not become a major hurricane..just picking ;)) became one of the easternmost-forming major hurricanes on record. Grace was the northeasternmost forming tropical cyclone on record.


I remember Claudette because the early statistical guidance had it going over southeast Louisiana on a path similar to Gustav. I was disappointed the next day when a well-defined center developed and the dynamical guidance suggested a track farther east.
516. SLU
Quoting 511. KoritheMan:



Nice. Even if that's suspect, still nice.


It's not suspect. I've been watching this wind surge in the ITCZ all day and it's passing through the southern islands now.

TGPY - 1:32 AM SSE 34.5 mph Thunderstorms and Rain
Quoting 508. redwagon:





What's this little blob just South of the Antilles?


Little blob to meet the fate of dry air, moderate shear and brisk trade wind death soon. Looks promising though. :)
Quoting KoritheMan:
This hurricane season sucks. Woulda probably been another 2009 if Arthur hadn't developed. I remember that nightmare.

Perhaps I'll migrate until the western Atlantic opens up with the possible upcoming pattern, if it ever even does. Maybe I should.


But 2009 had Bill and Fred. Those were awesome to watch. This season won't produce anything nearly as awesome.
I'm curious. What is the usual salary for a meteorologist, fresh out of college, with a bachelor degree? What about the same meteorologist, say with 20 years of experience?
Quoting 518. CybrTeddy:



But 2009 had Bill and Fred. Those were awesome to watch. This season won't produce anything nearly as awesome.


Cyber you have been super down on this season, down right tropically depressed. Season is shaping up to be a ten storm producer. Too early to throw away hope. Atlantic is moistening and El-Nino is going to be a late bloomer.
Quoting 519. HimacaneBrees:

I'm curious. What is the usual salary for a meteorologist, fresh out of college, with a bachelor degree? What about the same meteorologist, say with 20 years of experience?


Starting is usually around $30,000, with 20 year experience, well that can vary a lot depending on position, career path, and what a person does after 20 years, whether it be higher up in charge or the same position. Although typically well experienced meteorologists make 60-70,000 or more, again depending on a lot of different factors.

Only a small portion make more than 100,000 a year, as far as I know. Its not a rich man's career, however, if you love it who cares. The money is plenty comfortable to me, I'd be happy even if I made only 20,000 to 30,000 a year. I've lived happily with much less money to work with in college, and I've grown up in a mobile home park. Wealth is fine as long as its appreciated. Sadly we live in the entitlement generation, and we think we deserve so much pleasure and entertainment when all of it is a gift, not a right. I've heard of many graduates that end up earning even less because they get angry about "low starting pay" not just in meteorology, but many other careers, even ones that eventually pay very high.
Quoting 511. KoritheMan:



Nice. Even if that's suspect, still nice.


Its not necessarily suspect, it could be a microburst from strong thunderstorms, especially since the flow is already very fast there.
Good morning from the lighter side of weather life with some insight into the aftermath of yesterday's hail in the uttermost southwest corner of Germany :-)



Author says in heavy idiom that season for skiing has just been opened :-)
Are we getting to the point where the USA is uninsurable or just up the premiums?
TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072014
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

Deep convection began developing near the center of the low
pressure system located near 134W roughly around 0000 UTC. The
convection has persisted since that time, has become more organized,
and appears to at least partially cover the low-level center. A
0553 UTC ASCAT-B pass suggests that the circulation may still be a
little elongated from east to west, but the center is sufficiently
well defined. The ASCAT data also showed an area of
tropical-storm-force winds to the north and east of the center.
Based on this information, advisories are being initiated on
Tropical Storm Genevieve.

Genevieve is located to the south of a break in the subtropical
ridge and still appears to be embedded within the Intertropical
Convergence Zone, which is probably preventing it from making much
northward progress. The initial motion is 275/9 kt. The break in
the ridge should cause Genevieve to decelerate during the next 24
hours, but it should then gradually regain speed after 36 hours.
There is some noticeable spread among the track models, with the
GFDL and GFS taking a stronger Genevieve on a more northern track
and the ECMWF showing the storm gaining very little latitude. Given
Genevieve's attachment to the ITCZ, a more southern track wouldn't
be surprising. The official forecast is near the middle of the
guidance envelope and just to the south of the model consensus TVCE.

The upper-level environment is only marginally conducive for
further strengthening during the next 36 hours or so. A band of
strong upper-level westerly winds is located not too far to the
north of Genevieve, and any northward progress would likely bring
the storm into a higher-shear environment. There is more certainty
that vertical shear will increase by 48 hours, and Genevieve is
therefore forecast to gradually weaken after that time, likely
becoming a remnant low by the end of the forecast period. The
official intensity forecast is very close to the intensity consensus
ICON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 12.2N 134.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 12.3N 135.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 12.4N 136.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 12.6N 137.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 12.9N 139.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 13.5N 142.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 14.0N 145.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 30/0600Z 14.5N 149.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
526. MahFL
Quoting 428. sar2401:
The real answer is a combination of conservation and working toward cheaper methods of desalination.


Or rainfall. As luck would have it, you'd complete the pipeline and get the wettest decade ever.....
Quoting 498. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The East Pacific continues to be a tropical mess, courtesy of the MJO in addition to a strong convectively-coupled kelvin wave. The NHC is currently monitoring three disturbances, with another one forecast to form in a few days, and the CPHC is monitoring one.

Though it'd be awesome if these all developed and coexisted, I think they're too close--the outflow producing by one disturbance is shearing the one behind it.




The one south of Acapulco in my view has the best chance as it is separated from the one on front.
Quoting 521. Jedkins01:



Starting is usually around $30,000, with 20 year experience, well that can vary a lot depending on position, career path, and what a person does after 20 years, whether it be higher up in charge or the same position. Although typically well experienced meteorologists make 60-70,000 or more, again depending on a lot of different factors.

Only a small portion make more than 100,000 a year, as far as I know. Its not a rich man's career, however, if you love it who cares. The money is plenty comfortable to me, I'd be happy even if I made only 20,000 to 30,000 a year. I've lived happily with much less money to work with in college, and I've grown up in a mobile home park. Wealth is fine as long as its appreciated. Sadly we live in the entitlement generation, and we think we deserve so much pleasure and entertainment when all of it is a gift, not a right. I've heard of many graduates that end up earning even less because they get angry about "low starting pay" not just in meteorology, but many other careers, even ones that eventually pay very high.


i used to live in a car, i feel ya!
529. MahFL
Quoting 467. rod2635:



... link up along rail or interstate right of ways already there....


Those right of ways are likely already filled up with a road or rail, you'd still need extra land, which would bring in the permit problem. remember roads every where are adding lanes already, and indeed some roads already have extra land beside them, that the planners know will be needed later for more road lanes.
530. MahFL
Quoting 525. hurricanes2018:

TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE ...


Could you modify your posts so they are not all in bold please ?
the leftovers of two could interact with the ull over sw florida nw carib could use the rain


something to watch!
Richard Hendrickson started his service in 1930, back when Herbert Hoover was president. Some would say the 101-year-old farmer has just about seen it all, at least in terms of the weather.

Without fail for the last 84 years, Hendrickson has recorded the weather from his home in Bridgehampton, New York, as a volunteer to the National Weather Service.

“There’s never been a day missed,” Hendrickson said. Link
Why not wait until we get through Aug-Oct before making assumptions on the 2014 hurricane season. It is July 25th after all. Or do we need to pull out the dreaded chart again? :)


Swedish police: 'We're sweaty all the time'
The Local, published: 25 Jul 2014 11:22 GMT 02:00
Swedish weather agencies say the summer's warmest day is yet to come, but police in the north have decided that they can't take the heat - and filed a report about the own stifling police station. ...

New record: Warmest July day at Blindern (Oslo) ever
33.4C degrees [92F] were measured at Oslo on Thursday afternoon. This is the hottest July day ever recorded at Blindern. (Report is in Norwegian.)

Man claims holiday refund 'because it's warmer at home'
The Local, published: 25 Jul 2014 02:57 GMT 02:00
A Norwegian man tried to claim compensation after he cancelled his holiday to the Mediterranean because it was hotter in his homeland. ...

London weather: Capital to be hotter than Barcelona this weekend - but forecasters warn rain may stop play
The Evening Standard, Mark Blunden, Published: 25 July 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly
formed Tropical Storm Genevieve, located more than a thousand miles
east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.

1. An area of low pressure located a little more than a thousand miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is
producing disorganized shower activity. There is some potential for
development during the next day or two before the environment
becomes unfavorable. The system is forecast to move toward the west
or west-northwest at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
maybe a new invest soon
Good Morning.

Gentle showers overnight and early this morning.
More coming in fast from out there. (points)

Heavy in Grenada overnight, with strong squalls.
No wind here at all though.
Quoting 534. sporteguy03:

Why not wait until we get through Aug-Oct before making assumptions on the 2014 hurricane season. It is July 25th after all. Or do we need to pull out the dreaded chart again? :)



have you been not following the blog has of late gust not the next 2 weeks or longer is going two be vary quite in the Atlantic we are well on are way two a way below average season may be super below average season
539. MahFL
Quoting 532. hurricanes2018:



something to watch!

Watch die, sadly.

getting buzy here!
Hmm...



Well something is in that blob that just moved into the SE Carib

Looks like X TD2 is crashing into Haiti/D.R. and that should destroy any circulation that might have been left.

Meanwhile another disturbance is racing across the Southern Caribbean. NAM takes that wave and moves it across the Southern Caribbean and straight into Central America.

Note wave just off the coast of Central America in 84 hours.



Groundwater Deficit Out West
NASA Earth Observatory, July 24, 2014
544. FOREX
Quoting 541. wunderkidcayman:

Hmm...



Well something is in that blob that just moved into the SE Carib




see post 542.
Quoting 542. Sfloridacat5:

Looks like X TD2 is crashing into Haiti/D.R. and that should destroy any circulation that might have been left.

Meanwhile another disturbance is racing across the Southern Caribbean. NAM takes that wave and moves it across the Southern Caribbean and straight into Central America.

Note wave just off the coast of Central America in 84 hours.


X TD2 is still moving Westward so no not crashing into Hispaniola it may just clip SW Haiti but it is heading straight towards Jamaica
Good Morning all..

92L ... P05L ... TD02L
P06L
P07L


547. MahFL
Quoting 545. wunderkidcayman:


X TD2 is still moving Westward so no not crashing into Hispaniola it may just clip SW Haiti but it is heading straight towards Jamaica


Looks like that new TW is going to merge with x TD2 and not head west, but NW.
Finally some good news for us, and it's from the Daily Beast so it must be true!
Link
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

X TD2 is still moving Westward so no not crashing into Hispaniola it may just clip SW Haiti but it is heading straight towards Jamaica


NOAA just has XTD2 as an open wave with the northern part of the wave crossing Haiti/D.R. extending down to the southern Caribbean. On visible Satellite this morning almost all the convection is gone with the exception of the small blow up over S.E. D.R.

A warm start to the day in Sooo Cal

Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA (SSSSD)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Fri, 25 Jul 5:40 am (PDT)
Most Recent Observation: Fri, 25 Jul 5:30 am PDT (PDT)
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
25 Jul 5:30 am PDT 72 32 23 S 1G03 OK
Quoting 543. barbamz:




Groundwater Deficit Out West
NASA Earth Observatory, July 24, 2014

Did not realize the frontrange of the Rockies was so dry... I guess that should be an assumption with the extent of this true crisis.. no pipeline is gonna solve no rain...
Two new invests in EPAC (93E and 94E)

EP, 93, 2014072512, , BEST, 0, 136N, 1235W, 25, 1008, LO

EP, 94, 2014072512, , BEST, 0, 113N, 1032W, 25, 1008, DB
Quoting 535. barbamz:



Swedish police: 'We're sweaty all the time'
The Local, published: 25 Jul 2014 11:22 GMT 02:00
Swedish weather agencies say the summer's warmest day is yet to come, but police in the north have decided that they can't take the heat - and filed a report about the own stifling police station. ...

New record: Warmest July day at Blindern (Oslo) ever
33.4C degrees [92F] were measured at Oslo on Thursday afternoon. This is the hottest July day ever recorded at Blindern. (Report is in Norwegian.)

Man claims holiday refund 'because it's warmer at home'
The Local, published: 25 Jul 2014 02:57 GMT 02:00
A Norwegian man tried to claim compensation after he cancelled his holiday to the Mediterranean because it was hotter in his homeland. ...

London weather: Capital to be hotter than Barcelona this weekend - but forecasters warn rain may stop play
The Evening Standard, Mark Blunden, Published: 25 July 2014




Same colors as California! Good time to open summer ice cream shops!
Taz..you need to remove your post with the objectionable word..I got a short ban two days ago for quoting someone whose post wasn't anywhere offending as yours ..Its amazing you can say and do anything on this blog without any repercussions..Its very tiring to get on here on some mornings and see you be so rude..

FYI..the site itself is stating for tracking purposes what the pouch became or former name was..take it up with them
Quoting 547. MahFL:



Looks like that new TW is going to merge with x TD2 and not head west, but NW.

What new tropical wave the only wave E of xTD2 is at 50W-51W
But if you mean that blob that's in the SE Carib then I see what you mean but still it will move W maybe a little WNW


Quoting 554. Tropicsweatherpr:

Two new invests in EPAC (93E and 94E)

EP, 93, 2014072512, , BEST, 0, 136N, 1235W, 25, 1008, LO

EP, 94, 2014072512, , BEST, 0, 113N, 1032W, 25, 1008, DB
its going to be a crazy week with them new invests and tropical storm to
New maps show shear continues to weaken over the NW and N Central Caribbean (Hispaniola, Jamaica, Cuba, Cayman area) and now shear weakening over ther W Caribbean from Honduras/Nicaragua over to Jamaica and the rest of the listed areas
561. beell
Check the by-line!

Bug derecho: Swarm of Mayflies caught on radar in Upper Midwest-Washington Post/Capitol Weather Gang
BY ANGELA FRITZ
July 24 at 2:57 pm


Mayflies are captured on radar reflectivity after an extremely large hatching event near La Crosse, Wisc. on July 20, 2014. (NWS LaCrosse)


(Joey Hulett via NWS)

Fair warning to bug-haters: this might be the grossest thing you see today.
On Sunday evening, the La Crosse, Wisc. radar lit up with what, to the untrained eye, looks like a pretty intense rainfall event over the Mississippi River. Reflectivities maxed out at around 40 dbz, and it looked like a strong line of thunderstorms was developing. But not a drop of rain fell...more here
Quoting 562. MahFL:



Hey Taz do you know what these are ? ...,,,;;;:::'''""".


Reported
Well am gone .for the rest of today bye
Quoting 560. wunderkidcayman:

New maps show shear continues to weaken over the NW and N Central Caribbean (Hispaniola, Jamaica, Cuba, Cayman area) and now shear weakening over ther W Caribbean from Honduras/Nicaragua over to Jamaica and the rest of the listed areas


While the shear is becoming less of an issue, the problem is still very dry, sinking, stable air throughout the entire Atlantic basin. Until that changes, the probabilities of a significant storm are very small right now. All the moisture has been and continues to be in the Pacific basin.
For goodness sakes you 3 (556,559,562,563) have been reported it's way too early to start fighting
Atleast get a cup of coffee or tea and some breakfast before you start it up eh
Post 552 and 559 removed
Jul 25, 2014 2:00 am HST

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST FRI JUL 25 2014



For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

1. A disorganized area of low pressure located about 900 miles southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii continued to produce widely scattered thunderstorms across a broad area. This system may develop during the next few days as it moves westward across the central Pacific.* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 30 percent. INVEST 91-C

2. The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed tropical storm Genevieve, located about 1400 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. This system is expected to cross 140°W into the central Pacific ocean sometime late Saturday or early Sunday.
Quoting 566. slavicthunder:



Put a cork in it you blithering idiot. Learn some English.



Reported for name calling
Quoting 559. Tazmanian:

.
GOOD MORNING!!
Quoting 565. jrweatherman:



While the shear is becoming less of an issue, the problem is still very dry, sinking, stable air throughout the entire Atlantic basin. Until that changes, the probabilities of a significant storm are very small right now. All the moisture has been and continues to be in the Pacific basin.

At the moment that dry air in the Caribbean is moistening up

Quoting 566. slavicthunder:



___ _ ____ __ __ ___ __________ _____. _____ ____ _______.

Although kinda funny it's absolutely rude and disrespectful warning you have been flagged/reported
Plzs reload your web browser and re move any quote has I have re moved post 552 and 559 thanks
Quoting 572. wunderkidcayman:


At the moment that dry air in the Caribbean is moistening up




WKC - can you show the chart and/or data that shows the Caribbean moistening up. I'm not seeing it. thx.
bit sticky in here this morning
Quoting 572. wunderkidcayman:


Although kinda funny it's absolutely rude and disrespectful warning you have been flagged/reported

Oh, WKC, that is actually hilarious. The referenced post reads as if it was written from the bottom of a whiskey bottle.
With all of the talk about "hostile" conditions in the Caribbean, I wonder if/when we will ever see a fascinating cyclone like Allen in the near future.
good morning..........

i must admit...i am a fan of the farmers almanac.....no...i don't give them much credit.....but i enjoy reading it.....kind of like this blog...i may not agree with what is posted...but i enjoy reading it....

now amazingly...in june...the almanac was half right with predicting our first named storm.....was it a dog finding a bone?....or was their science involved?....either way.....got to give them some props.......you get to decide for yourself :-)

july though....well....right now....the new england states....they should be under the gun....sadly...their prediction won't come even close to panning out....we'll have to wait and see what august brings about....

24th-27th. Tropical storm threat for Northeast coast, otherwise clear, hot; then local thunderstorms for New England.
A terrible lightning strike just caused an explosion of something behind or in the trees right behind my house, we lost power for a bit. Not sure what it was, I'll try to explore later when the heavy rain and lightning lets up.

We had several extremely close lightning strikes yesterday as well that caused power problems. A man by the beach was indirectly hit by lightning yesterday, and a fire was started by the beach from lightning as well.


Lightning can be scary around here, sometimes I forget to appreciate how often it is bad here until I spend time in other areas.
as far as el nino....the roller coaster ride of daily values shows region 3.4.....well....has it found it's bottom and gonna climb again????????

Quoting 578. slavicthunder:

With all of the talk about "hostile" conditions in the Caribbean, I wonder if/when we will ever see a fascinating cyclone like Allen in the near future.


Allen was indeed "fascinating". But it was also deadly (270 people died), expensive in terms of property damage, and hugely disruptive. So when asked whether we can ever hope to see another storm of Allen's equal, my answer is "with any luck, never."
Quoting 566. slavicthunder:



Put a cork in it you blithering idiot. Learn some English.
PM for slavic
Quoting 542. Sfloridacat5:

Looks like X TD2 is crashing into Haiti/D.R. and that should destroy any circulation that might have been left.

Meanwhile another disturbance is racing across the Southern Caribbean. NAM takes that wave and moves it across the Southern Caribbean and straight into Central America.

Note wave just off the coast of Central America in 84 hours.

That is suppose to be P06L right?
585. jpsb
Quoting 582. Neapolitan:


Allen was indeed "fascinating". But it was also deadly (270 people died), expensive in terms of property damage, and hugely disruptive. So when asked whether we can ever hope to see another storm of Allen's equal, my answer is "with any luck, never."



Wiki on Allen

The first named storm and first tropical cyclone of the 1980 Atlantic hurricane season, it was one of the strongest hurricanes in recorded history and one of the few hurricanes to reach Category 5 status on the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Scale on three separate occasions, and spent more time as a Category 5 than any other Atlantic hurricane. Allen is the only hurricane in the recorded history of the Atlantic basin to achieve sustained winds of 190 mph (305 km/h).
Quoting Tazmanian:



Reported for name calling


You did the same exact thing to me yesterday for accidentally calling T.D.2 (92L).

You make rude disrespectful comments to members for no reason at all.

Members that have never said one bad thing to you. It's hard to understand why you behave in this manner.


Quoting 582. Neapolitan:


Allen was indeed "fascinating". But it was also deadly (270 people died), expensive in terms of property damage, and hugely disruptive. So when asked whether we can ever hope to see another storm of Allen's equal, my answer is "with any luck, never."
And so goes the dichotomy of the weather lover.  We love to observe and study these "fascinating" weather events, but the human impact is terrible.  Especially when you read accounts of people who lived through Andrew and the other landfalling majors.  My hat is off to those people who have to deal with these giant, rotating energy machines that ruin their homes and businesses.

Quoting 467. rod2635:

A billion dollars is chump change. The idea is not to drain lake Erie. The concept is to take those areas experiencing floods and send the water to areas experiencing drought. The recent episodes of excess rain in the Midwest for example. Pipe it out to where it will do some good. Establish pipelines along major tributary streams then link up along rail or interstate right of ways already there. Receiving state pays for the cost of pumping and treatment. O&M costs borne by participating states with a water use tax generating a trust fund. National pipleline networks are common for other commodities. Why should water be any different. Key West gets most of its water from a 150 mile pipeline down the keys. Small scale, but demonstration valid. We built a transcontinental railroad with private funds. Perhaps the marketplace will take care of this once water has sufficient commodity value to be worth moving in serious amounts.

This seems like comparing apples to bowling balls to me. Some very rough numbers to illustrate -- price of a barrel of oil = $100; a barrel of water = $0.04 (the Metropolitan Water District pays $300/acre-foot) . Capacity of proposed Keystone pipeline = 25 million gallons/day; capacity of California Aqueduct = 8467 million gallons/day. It would take a year to move through the Keystone pipeline what you could move in a day through the California Aqueduct. Finally, the estimated cost of the Keystone Pipeline is $5.4 billion. If you ignore things like operation costs and assume you can find the water sources (free) and markets to keep the pipeline running 24/7/365 you should be able to recover your investment in a little over 700 years. Any takers?

BBC is reporting that Air Algérie flight AH5017 came down due to sandstorms..

12:24: Alex Duval Smith, BBC News, Mali

Contact is believed to have been lost between Gao and Tessalit in north-eastern Mali. The most probable scenario at the moment is that the plane came down in bad weather. Sandstorms in the desert would account for very poor visibility. However, it is possible that it was shot down as armed groups do operate in the area.
The USA needs essentially, a circulation system. As stated previously,could shunt H2O to various regions,in need, from areas with excessive amounts. A huge project,but ,perhaps, possible.
Quoting 574. jrweatherman:


Is it that you can't see it or that you refuse to see it

Look at the shear maps
Pretty strong complex of storms heading toward St. Louis
593. JRRP
Quoting 591. wunderkidcayman:


Is it that you can't see it or that you refuse to see it

Look at the shear maps


I'm not talking about shear, that is not the issue. I've seen several charts posted on here showing moisture level contents, vertical instability etc. way below normal. On The Weather Channel this morning Dr. Postel show a map that indicated how dry the atmosphere is throughout the entire Atlantic region.

You are saying it is improving and I simply asked for you to post what you are seeing. thx.
Quoting allancalderini:
That is suppose to be P06L right?


Yes, 12z NAM has it smashing into Central America in 84 hours.
Quoting 580. Jedkins01:

A terrible lightning strike just caused an explosion of something behind or in the trees right behind my house, we lost power for a bit. Not sure what it was, I'll try to explore later when the heavy rain and lightning lets up.

We had several extremely close lightning strikes yesterday as well that caused power problems. A man by the beach was indirectly hit by lightning yesterday, and a fire was started by the beach from lightning as well.


Lightning can be scary around here, sometimes I forget to appreciate how often it is bad here until I spend time in other areas.
yeah it was reaL bad here this morning Lightning wise huh...kinda scary not being able to go outdoors for fear of being struck down.
598. JRRP


Watch out new CFS model has major cv hurricane hitting Boston next frame after this !!
What is happening with our El Ñino? =/
Tropical Storm GENEVIEVE
8:00 AM PDT Fri Jul 25 2014
Location: 12.3°N 135.5°W
Moving: W at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph
Quoting 604. hurricanes2018:

Tropical Storm GENEVIEVE
8:00 AM PDT Fri Jul 25 2014
Location: 12.3°N 135.5°W
Moving: W at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph

check post 600 big hurricane maybe hit ne !!
Quoting 602. pablosyn:

What is happening with our El Ñino? =/


Only El Nino knows!
Quoting 605. Camille33:


check post 600 big hurricane maybe hit ne !!
When does the next cfs model run come out?
Quoting 592. Sfloridacat5:

Pretty strong complex of storms heading toward St. Louis



Nope. Mayflies.

Also- some "devils" have been disrespectful for years, with no consequences... Im sure theyll just be back on here again after a fake apology and a slightly relevant weather post.
Also -Baltocane- Mr. Boh occupies a permanent plac eof honor on my forearm. Thouh her ein FL im always being asked
609. JRRP
Quoting pablosyn:
What is happening with our El Ñino? =/

did you meant the SUPER EL NIÑO ?
That CFS storm affecting the N.E. is for Friday, August 29ths (a month from now).

El Nino is a Tax scam to get in yer pockets

There has been no Pacific warming in 17 years.

The data is skewed

Al Gore.

: P
Quoting 610. Camille33:

Link


cfs has 2 major cvs in august before september... guys just wait the season not close to starting yet
So, We are almost to August . The time when the season really begins. Any model support for any Atlantic activity or are we still in the dry, dusty high shear environment.
Always being asked if its the pringles guy. Stupid tablet cant keep up with how fast i type on it, or let me edit more than 5 lines of text.... ehhh

That is a nice complex out near st. Louie though... i have family out that way
Quoting 614. blueyedbiker:

So, We are almost to August . The time when the season really begins. Any model support for any Atlantic activity or are we still in the dry, dusty high shear environment.


see link in comment 610
check post 600 big hurricane maybe hit ne !!


would that be a month out?????.....and we're pinpointing landfall????????......don't mind me if i don't get too excited just yet
Quoting Camille33:


cfs has 2 major cvs in august before september... guys just wait the season not close to starting yet
Quoting Camille33:


cfs has 2 major cvs in august before september... guys just wait the season not close to starting yet


The season is definitely just beginning, but I don't know how much trust I would put in those model runs.
Quoting 614. blueyedbiker:

So, We are almost to August . The time when the season really begins. Any model support for any Atlantic activity or are we still in the dry, dusty high shear environment.


Earlier in the week it appeared that maybe things might start going with an increase in showers in the MDR across the Atlantic and some pretty good looking waves over Africa. However, the showers in the MDR have decreased and now there is only one somewhat impressive wave about to come off Africa.

The bottom line right now is that the Atlantic region is being dominated by dry, stable, sinking air. Nothing on the horizon for the next week to ten days.
and now let's look at some models 5 days out...but first....a word from my therapist.....





This page presents operational model fields that are being used in a study examining their
forecast ability for tropical cyclogenesis in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S.,
please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Cente
r.
cmc says just not a whole lot to talk about.....

same goes for the ecmwf...

Ohm'


Quoting 611. Sfloridacat5:

That CFS storm affecting the N.E. is for Friday, August 29ths (a month from now).


Is it bad that I'm currently laughing that we are discussing a storm about a month away?.
Quoting 600. Camille33:



Watch out new CFS model has major cv hurricane hitting Boston next frame after this !!

Yes, because one run 900 hours into the forward is definitely going to come true. ;)
gfs says expect more global warming discussions.....

Quoting 608. Unfriendly:



Nope. Mayflies.

Also- some "devils" have been disrespectful for years, with no consequences... Im sure theyll just be back on here again after a fake apology and a slightly relevant weather post.
Also -Baltocane- Mr. Boh occupies a permanent plac eof honor on my forearm. Thouh her ein FL im always being asked


Wooo!
navgem says at least there might be some life in the pacific.....

Is it bad that I'm currently laughing that we are discussing a storm about a month away?.


at least it's more exciting than the 5 day models....
I agree about that we shouldn't use the CFS model in depicting landfall but I have to question those who are condemning the CFS model run but posts model depictions of an el nino event with a range of 3 months that keeps getting pushed back or may not even happen..

my question are those el nino scenarios more reliable than a CFS model run 900 hours out and if so why?

I always understood the long range CFS is used only pattern recognition and according to its website entertainment purposes...
Please, my dear and wonderful bloggers. Don't make me pull out the big bananas. Thank you my dearest. xoxoxoxo Joan.

I'm developing a Banana and Crow Entree with surprisingly good results in the test kitchen too.
Showing a Hurricane anywhere past 55 West on Aug 29th any year is a fairly good climatological dart throw.

Quoting 617. ricderr:

check post 600 big hurricane maybe hit ne !!


would that be a month out?????.....and we're pinpointing landfall????????......don't mind me if i don't get too excited just yet


Dang. I'm planning a business trip to that area at the end of August. I might have to rethink it now.
I'm thinking of moving from Florida to Nova Scotia so I can experience some Tropical Storms.

I can't believe how much tropical action they see for being at such a high latitude.

Arthur flashback.
Quoting 636. jrweatherman:



Dang. I'm planning a business trip to that area at the end of August. I might have to rethink it now.
You better be being sarcastic.
640. MahFL
The wave that just came of of Africa seems to be improving slightly over water. It's heading more west than the last one. It also has moister air ahead of it.

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Supercomputer makes it possible to predict the evolution of the large-scale atmospheric circulation of tropical storms
PhysOrg, 3 hours ago
To accurately predict weather and climate, scientists need to simulate the large-scale patterns that exist in global atmospheric circulation. One of the largest circulation patterns, the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), is associated with heavy rainfall and drought across the tropics. Due to the sheer size and complexity of the MJO, however, researchers have so far struggled to perform sufficiently detailed simulations over a broad enough area to accurately predict this oscillation.
Hirofumi Tomita and co-workers at the RIKEN Advanced Institute for Computational Science, in collaboration with researchers from the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology and the University of Tokyo, have now exploited the power of Japan's K computer—currently the fourth most powerful supercomputer in the world—to perform a series of MJO simulations with unprecedented resolution. ...


Researcher part of team studying ways to better predict intensity of hurricanes
PhysOrg, 37 minutes ago
They are something we take very seriously in Florida – hurricanes. The names roll off the tongue like a list of villains – Andrew, Charlie, Frances and Wilma.
In the past 25 years or so, experts have gradually been improving prediction of the course a storm may take. This is thanks to tremendous advancements in computer and satellite technology. While we still have the "cone of uncertainty" we've become familiar with watching television weather reports, today's models are more accurate than they used to be.
The one area, however, where there is still much more to be researched and learned is in predicting just how intense a storm may be. While hurricane hunter aircraft can help determine wind speed, velocity, water temperature and other data, the fact is we often don't know why or how a storm gets stronger or weaker. There has been virtually no progress in hurricane intensity forecasting during the last quarter century.
But, thanks to new research being conducted, all that's about to change.
"The air-water interface – whether it had significant waves or significant spray – is a big factor in storm intensity," said Alex Soloviev, Ph.D., a professor at Nova Southeastern University's Oceanographic Center. "Hurricanes gain heat energy through the interface and they lose mechanical energy at the interface." ...


Whole articles see links above.
Getting close to St. Louis. Time to bring activities indoors.
Quoting 601. Patrap:




I'm not sure exactly what it is about this photo... but it's entrancing. Those wisps of clouds that seem to dart in every direction just south of the Cape Verde Islands... that very clear and distinct layer of dust and dry air pushing out into the ocean.. nice post pat.
Greetings guys,
Its really sad to hear of the damage in Grenada and the Grenadines and perhaps to a lesser extent in Tobago- due to the latest Vigorous tropical wave which passed through overnight...I hope no one was badly hurt or injured in any of the islands. It appears that the very system which affected the Grenada area could have been at a much higher intensity during its passage last night than was originally thought. In fact it seems that prevailing conditions at the time indicate convincing evidence in support of a system at minimal Tropical depression strength. There was definite rotation and curving/ banding signatures seen late last night on the Meteo France Antilles Radar Loop (FWI Radar Mosaic) at the time of passage of the most intense convection. Its a shame that more emphasis was not placed on this potent little system. I suppose that there would be more reports out of Grenada, but according to news reports there are some places that are still without power like the island's windward coast, and other areas should be getting reconnected like True Blue. (This system seemed awfully like a duplicate of sorts of TD 2 except at a lower Latitude.)
It’s a critical reminder that We cannot afford to get complacent or to let our guard down at any time- especially during the hurricane season.
Let us all continue to Keep safe.
God Bless!