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Philippines' First Typhoon Since Haiyan Approaching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:20 PM GMT on July 14, 2014

The Philippines Islands are bracing for the impact of Typhoon Rammasun, the islands' first typhoon since the devastating strike by Category 5 Super Typhoon Haiyan in November 2013. Haiyan was the deadliest and most expensive natural disaster in Philippines history. Fortunately, Rammasun is much weaker--a mere Category 1 storm. Top winds were 85 mph (1-minute average from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center), and the central pressure was 975 mb (as rated by the Japan Meteorological Agency) at 8 am EDT on Monday morning--a far cry from the incredible 195 mph sustained winds and central pressure of 895 mb of Haiyan at its peak. Rammasun is intensifying, though. Satellite loops on Monday morning showed a steady increase in the intensity and areal coverage of the typhoon's heavy thunderstorms. With wind shear a light 5 - 10 knots and Sea Surface Temperatures a very warm 30°C, further intensification is likely until landfall occurs. Philippines radar showed the outer spiral bands of Rammasun were already affecting Samar Island, where Haiyan initially made landfall. The core of Rammasun will pass north of Samar Island and strike the main Philippines island of Luzon, with the center passing very near the capital of Manila early Wednesday (local time). The main concern will be flash flooding and mudslides over Luzon and Samar, but wind damage also has the potential to be considerable, since the typhoon is passing over the most heavily populated part of Luzon.

After crossing Luzon, Rammasun will have the opportunity to re-strengthen over the South China Sea before making a second landfall in China near Hainan Island on Friday. Our two top track models, the GFS and European, predict a landfall in China between 03 - 12 UTC on Friday.


Figure 1. Rainfall rate of Typhoon Rammasun as estimated by a microwave sounding instrument on NOAA's F-18 polar orbiting satellite at 6:44 am EDT Monday July 14, 2014. Rainfall rates in excess of 1"/hour (orange colors) were indicated in the northern eyewall of the typhoon. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Extreme heat in Western Canada, unusual coolness in Midwest U.S.
The remnants of Super Typhoon Neoguri, which pushed northeastwards into Alaska after the storm hit Japan last week, set in motion a chain-reaction set of events that has dramatically altered the path of the jet stream and affected weather patterns across the entire Northern Hemisphere. Neoguri caused an acceleration of the North Pacific jet stream, which amplified a trough low pressure over Alaska, causing a ripple effect in the jet stream over western North America, where a strong ridge of high pressure developed. The ridge helped push temperatures as high as 106°F (41.1°C) in British Columbia on Sunday. A compensating strong trough of low pressure formed over the Midwest U.S., and that trough is now pumping cool, polar air southwards into the Upper Midwest. The high temperature in Minneapolis on Monday is predicted to be in the low 60s, about 15°F below average. This jet stream pattern is similar to the nasty "Polar Vortex" pattern that set up during the winter of 2014 over North America, but calling it the polar vortex in this case is not technically correct.


Figure 2. Forecast for the departure of surface temperature from average for 5 pm EDT July 14, 2014, as predicted by the GFS model at 00 UTC July 14, 2014. A strong trough of low pressure is predicted to bring high temperatures much below average over portions of Minnesota and Wisconsin, while much above average temperatures are predicted over much of British Columbia and Alberta, Canada. Data/image obtained using Climate Reanalyzer™ (http://cci-reanalyzer.org), Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, Orono, Maine.

Quiet in the Atlantic
None of the reliable models for predicting genesis of Atlantic tropical cyclones is predicting development over the next five days, and there are no threat areas to discuss. The tropical Atlantic is dominated by dry air and high wind shear, and SSTs are 0.2°C below average in the Hurricane Main Development region between the coast of Africa and Central America, between 10°N - 20°N. If we get another tropical storm this month, the most likely area for formation would be off the Southeast U.S. coast or in the Gulf of Mexico.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. Masters!
Thanks Dr. Masters and Grothar I'm starting to think you are next door neighbor with the Doc.
Typhoon 09W

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 JUL 2014 Time : 143000 UTC
Lat : 12:44:57 N Lon : 127:32:36 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 979.8mb/ 77.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.5 4.5 3.5

Center Temp : -66.1C Cloud Region Temp : -73.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 77km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 25.1 degrees



Thanks Dr. Masters for the new blog!
Rammasun
RainBow Top Loop

The Kamloops, BC airport reportedly had a new record all-time hottest temperature of 40.7 C / 105.3 F on Sunday. The previous record was almost as hot, at 40.6 C / 105.1 F.

UPDATE: Another source now states that a temperature of 41.1 C was reached at the airport in 1944, so probably a new record was not set this year.



IR-based TC size


Tropical cyclone size, the radius of where the TC wind field is indistinguishable from the background flow in a climatological environment, is empirically estimated from IR imagery and storm latitude. Principle components of the storm centered, azimuthally averaged IR brightness temperatures and the sine of the latitude have been regressed on the azimuthal mean tangential winds around TCs at 500k radius (V500) using a 1995-2011 Atlantic and East Pacific data set. Using the same dataset the climatological TC size (as defined above),radial decay of tangential winds beyond 500 km radius and V500 has also been estimated. Combining the V500 estimate along with the climatological TC information allows us to estimate TC size. This TC size metric is reported in units of degrees latitude. More information on how to calculate this metric can be found in Knaff et al. (2013), which is being reviewed for publication in the Journal of Climate.
Thanks Doc !
Thank you Dr Masters!

Typhoon Rammasun 85mph heading to Philippine Islands.
Doesn't look like the West Pacific will be quiet for awhile. Which will give a kick to El Nino.
Thanks Doc!

Rammasun is nearing category 2 status.

Lots of clouds and moisture around Soo Cal. mostly 400-600mb moisture with dry air below those levels.....the best result is some sprinkles at higher elevations and drying , becoming virga at sea level....blah blah blahh.....can we get some RAIN please?
Quoting 14. HurricaneHunterJoe:
Lots of clouds and moisture around Soo Cal. mostly 400-600mb moisture with dry air below those levels.....the best result is some sprinkles at higher elevations and drying , becoming virga at sea level....blah blah blahh.....can we get some RAIN please?


It was raining about an hour ago here in the SFV. Not enough to even make the parking lot slick, but still incredily unusual for mid-July.
Quoting 15. TimSoCal:



It was raining about an hour ago here in the SFV. Not enough to even make the parking lot slick, but still incredily unusual for mid-July.


I got 63 drops to Tim......I mean real rain.
Thanks Jeff. Quiet is good...
Thanks Dr. Masters!
Thanks Doc.
I guess this explains the overcast & humidity today.


SAL seems to be backing of a little bit. ITCZ is likely lifting northward.
thank you doc....hopefully it grows no stronger.......

i finally got a chance to look at the CPC's weekly ENSO update......giving the 3.4 region a 0.3c anomaly last week.....seems to be doing as the models predict...floundering just under the threshold...if the models are to be trusted we should see that for a few weeks before warming further
Quoting TimSoCal:
I guess this explains the overcast & humidity today.


Looks like the monsoon is cranking up right on schedule. I remember when I lived in LA that, even though the humidity was uncomfortable, at least it was something different than the usual "Fog and low clouds clearing to the beaches by noon..." every day. Of course, this also mean dry lightning and wildfires in the mountains, which isn't so good.
Someone send the rescue squad! It's already 95 at noon. I'm going to die. This is like living in Minnesota in the winter where you run from the car to the house, except I won't get frostbite, just heat stroke. We have not had a high lower than 90 since June 2 and less than 95 since June 29. All I can hope is the polar vortex really gets here. The prediction for Wednesday is 89 and a low of 67! I'm looking for my jacket now. :-)


maybe something to watch here!!
Quoting 27. sar2401:

Someone send the rescue squad! It's already 95 at noon. I'm going to die. This is like living in Minnesota in the winter where you run from the car to the house, except I won't get frostbite, just heat stroke. We have not had a high lower than 90 since June 2 and less than 95 since June 29. All I can hope is the polar vortex really gets here. The prediction for Wednesday is 89 and a low of 67! I'm looking for my jacket now. :-)
Yikes. Hasn't even hit 90 here (Toronto) yet. Maybe once.

Quoting sar2401:
Someone send the rescue squad! It's already 95 at noon. I'm going to die. This is like living in Minnesota in the winter where you run from the car to the house, except I won't get frostbite, just heat stroke. We have not had a high lower than 90 since June 2 and less than 95 since June 29. All I can hope is the polar vortex really gets here. The prediction for Wednesday is 89 and a low of 67! I'm looking for my jacket now. :-)
Here in Wisconsin we've been in the 70s almost every day all summer =)
Storms just inland of the coast of S. Florida. We just picked up a brief shower at my location in Fort Myers. Hopefully we get some more this afternoon.
Quoting sar2401:
Someone send the rescue squad! It's already 95 at noon. I'm going to die. This is like living in Minnesota in the winter where you run from the car to the house, except I won't get frostbite, just heat stroke. We have not had a high lower than 90 since June 2 and less than 95 since June 29. All I can hope is the polar vortex really gets here. The prediction for Wednesday is 89 and a low of 67! I'm looking for my jacket now. :-)


"Polar Vortex"
I can only guess how many times the term will be used this Winter.
Quoting 27. sar2401:

Someone send the rescue squad! It's already 95 at noon. I'm going to die. This is like living in Minnesota in the winter where you run from the car to the house, except I won't get frostbite, just heat stroke. We have not had a high lower than 90 since June 2 and less than 95 since June 29. All I can hope is the polar vortex really gets here. The prediction for Wednesday is 89 and a low of 67! I'm looking for my jacket now. :-)


Don't worry, I'll send my good friend sar to your rescue! He has years and years of experience with this. You are in safe hands, sir!

;)
Washi, Climate, originalLT are all under severe t-storm watch.



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 418
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
125 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
DELAWARE
MARYLAND
NEW JERSEY
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
NORTHERN VIRGINIA
EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 125 PM UNTIL
800 PM EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH OF
NEWARK NEW JERSEY TO 60 MILES EAST OF STAUNTON VIRGINIA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
Thanks Dr. Fascinating as noted from your Blog last week as to the impact of the Typhoon remnants over North America and the temporary jet stream anomaly.....................Something to watch again in the future with larger Pacific storms as they/remnants circle around the North Pacific on their toward-the-poles trajectory.
Quoting Astrometeor:


Don't worry, I'll send my good friend sar to your rescue! He has years and years of experience with this. You are in safe hands, sir!

;)

Thanks a lot, Astro. The least you could do is send down a bag of ice or something. :-)
12z
SREF Ensembles


06z NCEP Ensembles
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


"Polar Vortex"
I can only guess how many times the term will be used this Winter.

Polar vortex and Derecho. The two new in words for weather in 2014.
Quoting silas:

Here in Wisconsin we've been in the 70s almost every day all summer =)

That's nice. Wait until it's 10 degrees there and 70 down here. Then I get to make fun of all you northerners. :-)
Quoting hurricanehunter5753:
Yikes. Hasn't even hit 90 here (Toronto) yet. Maybe once.

Well, you just wait until the Polar Vortex gets there. Let's see, the forecast for Toronto for the next three days is...high's in the low 70's and lows in the mid-50's...Hmmm. But regular gas here is $3.19 per real gallon. You can't say that, can you? :-)
Quoting 30. silas:


Here in Wisconsin we've been in the 70s almost every day all summer =)



I guess I didn't know you were from Wisconsin. You might be in my neck of the woods. Where are you from?
Quoting 39. sar2401:


That's nice. Wait until it's 10 degrees there and 70 down here. Then I get to make fun of all you northerners. :-)


I actually don't mind winters in Wisconsin, so long as they don't go on for 6 months. :)
Quoting 42. WIBadgerWeather:



I actually don't mind winters in Wisconsin, so long as they don't go on for 6 months. :)


Our summers in Norway were actually very nice; both days.
Quoting sar2401:
Someone send the rescue squad! It's already 95 at noon. I'm going to die. This is like living in Minnesota in the winter where you run from the car to the house, except I won't get frostbite, just heat stroke. We have not had a high lower than 90 since June 2 and less than 95 since June 29. All I can hope is the polar vortex really gets here. The prediction for Wednesday is 89 and a low of 67! I'm looking for my jacket now. :-)


What was it you said about the heat and humidity not being that bad in the deep South :-)

I'm with you on heat and summer is my least favorite season. At least with chill you can put on more clothes and/or become more active. There is a practical limit to the clothing heat converse and the combination of less activity and stuff that needs to be done presents an obvious conundrum.

As a climate poke in the eye I like growing my own potatoes. The spring crop is ready in early July in the DC area.. a wonderful time for the backbreaking digging, in our heavy but fertile clays, to get them.

Nice blog, Doc. By the way, I will be on tomorrow at 10:37 AM. Feel free to post anytime after that. :)

oops double post
Quoting Grothar:
Nice blog, Doc. By the way, I will be on tomorrow at 10:37 AM. Feel free to post anytime after that. :)




LMAO!

Well sar, the second reinforcing cold front is about to swing thru S C IL. Very dark to N & W as came back from lunch & could hear a little rumble every now and then. Radar doesn't show as much red/orange as was earlier for band approaching us, but one to NE & one to SW appear to be strengthening.

83 w? 73 dew pt., 8-12 SW winds, 16 gust, 29.88" w/ rain minutes away, then dropping temps and dew pts. Our forecast has come back up to 72 tomorrow, had been as low 70 this weekend. Open the windows for the third week in a row, rare for July!
Quoting WIBadgerWeather:


I actually don't mind winters in Wisconsin, so long as they don't go on for 6 months. :)


I wouldn't mind the Florida summers if they didn't go on for six months. It's not the intensity of the heat it's the duration through the thousand days of August
What has been impressing me on the systems this year, is the tight cluster of the models.





Quoting 49. georgevandenberghe:



I wouldn't mind the Florida summers if they didn't go on for six months. It's not the intensity of the heat it's the duration through the thousand days of August


Yeah, the heat tends to get to me more than the cold. I even get tired of Wisconsin's heat in the summer from time to time. This week looks like a gem, however.

Quoting sar2401:
Someone send the rescue squad! It's already 95 at noon. I'm going to die. This is like living in Minnesota in the winter where you run from the car to the house, except I won't get frostbite, just heat stroke. We have not had a high lower than 90 since June 2 and less than 95 since June 29. All I can hope is the polar vortex really gets here. The prediction for Wednesday is 89 and a low of 67! I'm looking for my jacket now. :-)


At least you don't need a block cooler for your car to start in July and your pipes (buried an insufficient [ for MN in 2014] eight FEET down) won't freeze. But on this thread, cold makes cars not start but HEAT is what kills lead acid batteries esp. when partially discharged
for a long time.
Quoting 38. sar2401:


Polar vortex and Derecho. The two new in words for weather in 2014.


Along with "bombogenesis", of course. :)
I have not been on in....forever........The Atlantic is dead....Not a surprise....Hopefully this winter makes up for it like last year....
Quoting WIBadgerWeather:


Along with "bombogenesis", of course. :)


Bombogenisis is old. Everybody in DC above age 2 in 2012, learned Derecho that year. Polar vortex is a disgusting exaggerated addition to the 2014 vernacular.
Quoting WIBadgerWeather:


Along with "bombogenesis", of course. :)



We used to have new word alerts on here. Some of the seniors racked up a lot of points for those gems.

But polar vortex and derecho are nothing new.

bombogenesis however is a classic new word alert!

Derecho is new? Who knew?
Quoting washingtonian115:
I have not been on in....forever........The Atlantic is dead....Not a surprise....Hopefully this winter makes up for it like last year....


My bet (worth nothing!!) is that winter will indeed be "interesting" here again this year; both colder and wetter. This based on an abortive El Nino which winds up with Central Pacific warm anomalies.

I am not abandoning hope though for a winter greens garden even though it was destroyed last year.

Quoting Randrewl:



We used to have new word alerts on here. Some of the seniors racked up a lot of points for those gems.

But polar vortex and derecho are nothing new.

bombogenesis however is a classic new word alert!



That term hasn't gone mainstream yet. When our local T.V. weather girl starts using the term (Polar Vortex for example), you know its time to move on to something else.
Quoting 58. georgevandenberghe:



My bet (worth nothing!!) is that winter will indeed be "interesting" here again this year; both colder and wetter. This based on an abortive El Nino which winds up with Central Pacific warm anomalies.

CWG thinks this winter has a chance to be colder and snowy as well.Kinda like last year.
Quoting 59. Sfloridacat5:



That tern hasn't gone mainstream yet. When our local T.V. weather girl starts using the term (Polar Vortex for example), you know its time to move on to something else.



Like 'thundersnow' and 'haboob'?

What about a 'thunderboob'?
Quoting 54. washingtonian115:

I have not been on in....forever........The Atlantic is dead....Not a surprise....Hopefully this winter makes up for it like last year....
Counting down the days....
Quoting washingtonian115:
CWG thinks this winter has a chance to be colder and snowy as well.Kinda like last year.


TOTAL SPECULATION

Fewer deep cold spells, fewer warm spells, comparable temperature departures at the end of the season, fewer storms, bigger dumps, comparable snow totals.

If this pans out my winter greens garden will survive.
Quoting yonzabam:


Like 'thundersnow' and 'haboob'?

What about a 'thunderboob'?


Thundersnow dates from the 90s at least, maybe earlier.
Haboob is ancient.

If a derecho is moving from east to west, would that have to name it "el Lefto"?


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 419
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
125 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 125 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE


THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES WEST OF
RUSSELLVILLE ARKANSAS TO 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CROSSVILLE
TENNESSEE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
Bombogenesis is not a new word everyone. It is quite the old word used to describe an intensifying area of low pressure.

By the way there is a developing surface low, and surface circulation southwest of Bermuda. It is no longer upper level in nature and has broken off from out underneath the parent upper level low. However it is quite dry southwest of Bermuda currently and a surface trough is stealing all of the moisture from the developing circulation. Lately any circulation trying to develop without convection has a hard time maintaining itself, it will be interesting to see how it gets convection given that there is 20 knots of northerly shear over it currently. Development is very little right now.
Quoting 64. georgevandenberghe:



Thundersnow dates from the 90s at least, maybe earlier.
Haboob is ancient.


I am going to assume this means a cooler fall in place from September to November.

Quoting sar2401:

That's nice. Wait until it's 10 degrees there and 70 down here. Then I get to make fun of all you northerners. :-)
I don't mind cold, I'd take 10 degrees over 100 degrees ANY day =)


Quoting WIBadgerWeather:


I guess I didn't know you were from Wisconsin. You might be in my neck of the woods. Where are you from?
Rural green county. Where are you from?
The term Blob is and was not any new term on the blogs.
It was always just a blob of convection until the RECON fly guys started investigating any blob in the area of a potential developing storm system.

After that it has now become a basic meteorological term.

Quoting Climate175:
I am going to assume this means a cooler fall in place from September to November.


About Fall I have no idea.
Quoting 65. Grothar:

If a derecho is moving from east to west, would that have to name it "el Lefto"?


Right'y o, Captain.
18z Best Track up to 80kts.

09W RAMMASUN 140714 1800 12.7N 126.9E WPAC 80 963
Quoting 68. Climate175:

I am going to assume this means a cooler fall in place from September to November.
Not really.2013 didn't have a cool fall.
Quoting 65. Grothar:
If a derecho is moving from east to west, would that have to name it "el Lefto"?


"Izquierdo"
Quoting 74. washingtonian115:

Not really.2013 didn't have a cool fall.
No wonder the trees reacted the way they did.
Quoting 74. washingtonian115:

Not really.2013 didn't have a cool fall.


Opposite here. 2013 was cold ALL year...except for December. Then we had polar vortex of cold in January and February, weaker, but nearly the same timing as the one in 1994. Strange.
Just a tad bit warm outside across Southwest Florida.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #33
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON RAMMASUN (1409)
3:00 AM JST July 15 2014
==================================

Sea East Of The Philippines

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Rammasun (975 hPa) located at 12.6N 127.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 11 knots.

Storm Force Winds
===============
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
140 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Forecast and Intensity
==================
24 HRS: 13.7N 123.1E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Overland Luzon Region (Philippines)
48 HRS: 16.3N 119.3E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
72 HRS: 18.3N 114.5E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
Quoting 38. sar2401:


Polar vortex and Derecho. The two new in words for weather in 2014.
JULY 4, 1969 DERECHO, "The Ohio Fireworks Derecho" The first derecho recorded on radar. We just called it "4th of July Storm" and for years everyone knew what you meant, until time faded and new 4th of July storms took its place.

I first heard the term "derecho" only several years ago, but according to Wikipedia, "The word was first used in the American Meteorological Journal in 1888 by Gustavus Detlef Hinrichs in a paper describing the phenomenon and based on a significant derecho event that crossed Iowa on 31 July 1877"
Quoting 69. silas:


I don't mind cold, I'd take 10 degrees over 100 degrees ANY day =)


Rural green county. Where are you from?



Rural Green County? Cool! My grandparents live on a farm on Hwy G. South of Brodhead. i myself am from Stoughton. Nice weather we have been having lately!
Quoting washingtonian115:
I have not been on in....forever........The Atlantic is dead....Not a surprise....Hopefully this winter makes up for it like last year....


IMO, Arthur made up for last year.
Cool and Muggy! Only a few drops of rain today......mostly cloudy all day thus far....At least it's not hot and muggy yet.

Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA (SSSSD)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Mon, 14 Jul 12:20 pm (PDT)
Most Recent Observation: Mon, 14 Jul 12:10 pm PDT (PDT)
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
14 Jul 12:10 pm PDT 79 58 49 E 8G17 OK


Quoting WIBadgerWeather:


Rural Green County? Cool! My grandparents live on a farm on Hwy G. South of Brodhead. i myself am from Stoughton. Nice weather we have been having lately!
That's cool! It has been gorgeous lately. I'd better get outside, speaking of which! =)
Quoting CybrTeddy:


IMO, Arthur made up for last year.

One storm made up for an entire season?
Hey Sar.....please tell me they don't have a Winnn-Dixie in Eufaula!
Quoting 83. CybrTeddy:



IMO, Arthur made up for last year.

Agreed...

Compared to last year...
Quoting 86. TropicalAnalystwx13:


One storm made up for an entire season?


Almost.......last year was awful.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

One storm made up for an entire season?


What season? :P
The JTWC 21:00 UTC warning at 80kts.

Quoting 50. Grothar:

What has been impressing me on the systems this year, is the tight cluster of the models.








yea, but your weird Uncle who found the quarters behind everyone's ear impressed you too... jes sayin'
Early action off Africa?

Quoting 66. Astrometeor:



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 419
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
125 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 125 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE


THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES WEST OF
RUSSELLVILLE ARKANSAS TO 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CROSSVILLE
TENNESSEE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



Have fun with those storms Astro! That one line from Jackson to about Paris looks pretty robust.
80kts is probably too low for an intensity on Rammasun. The Philippines are in for a pretty solid hit.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 976.0mb/ 82.2kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.7 4.7 6.1

Quoting 95. MAweatherboy1:

80kts is probably too low for an intensity on Rammasun. The Philippines are in for a pretty solid hit.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 976.0mb/ 82.2kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.7 4.7 6.1




Careful with those, it said Arthur has 105kt winds at one point.

2014 JUL 03 214500 5.6 953.5 104.6 5.6 5.5 5.5
Quoting 90. CybrTeddy:



What season? :P
2013 was one of the main examples of what a pathetic season looks like.Ingrid managed to get retired..
Quoting 97. washingtonian115:

2013 was one of the main examples of what a pathetic season looks like.Ingrid managed to get retired..


So stupid
Quoting 96. VAbeachhurricanes:



Careful with those, it said Arthur has 105kt winds at one point.

2014 JUL 03 214500 5.6 953.5 104.6 5.6 5.5 5.5

True, they certainly aren't as good as real time recon but we obviously don't have that there. A Raw T# of 6.1 would correspond to winds close to 135mph. I certainly don't think it's nearly that strong, and that number has just dropped down to a 3.9 now as the eye has become obscured in the latest frame. Raw T# will never exceed a 4.0 if there is no eye visible. But the fact that it spiked that high once the eye did peek out shows the potential that is there if the eye can stay clear. I'd say the storm is probably at 85-90kts right now.
Quoting 65. Grothar:

If a derecho is moving from east to west, would that have to name it "el Lefto"?


Derecho means "straight", derechA is right. EIther named for the line of storms or straight-line winds.
Quoting 98. VAbeachhurricanes:



So stupid
It was mainly Manuel's doing....


maybe winds up to 100 mph soon
Quoting 98. VAbeachhurricanes:



So stupid


Yet Isaac doesn't. Manuel was a better looking system coming from the Pacific and the combination of the two is what did so much flooding not just one or the other.

I've heard debate as to whether Sandy should've been retired had it not caused destruction in the Caribbean. Technically was a hybrid system that didn't make it to Jersey as tropical. If the same system hadn't hit a highly populated area that is more accustomed to preparing for hurricanes and where property isn't so expensive like it is in the northeast probably wouldn't have done as much damage or cost as much. As for me, I think Sandy was more than deserving but still an interesting thing to discuss.
Quoting 102. hurricanes2018:



maybe winds up to 100 mph soon


Well, if it's intensifying more than expected, it could get serious, as it's headed for a densely populated area, near Manila.
Quoting 103. win1gamegiantsplease:



Yet Isaac doesn't. Manuel was a better looking system coming from the Pacific and the combination of the two is what did so much flooding not just one or the other.

And that's exactly why both were retired.
106. silas

Quoting MAweatherboy1:

True, they certainly aren't as good as real time recon but we obviously don't have that there. A Raw T# of 6.1 would correspond to winds close to 135mph. I certainly don't think it's nearly that strong, and that number has just dropped down to a 3.9 now as the eye has become obscured in the latest frame. Raw T# will never exceed a 4.0 if there is no eye visible. But the fact that it spiked that high once the eye did peek out shows the potential that is there if the eye can stay clear. I'd say the storm is probably at 85-90kts right now.
I'm usually conservative in my intensity estimates, but I have to agree with you that this storm is probably near 90kts right now. Look at how deep that convection is.

Quoting 65. Grothar:

If a derecho is moving from east to west, would that have to name it "el Lefto"?

El Izquierdo.
40/C here today an rising for the next few days.
Interesting that the west coast of Canada is about the same temps as Cordoba which is about the hottest city in Europe during the summer.
Quoting 96. VAbeachhurricanes:



Careful with those, it said Arthur has 105kt winds at one point.

2014 JUL 03 214500 5.6 953.5 104.6 5.6 5.5 5.5

Can you blame it?

Quoting 108. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Can you blame it?




No, which is exactly why those readings shouldn't be taken as gospel.
I found a very interesting paper about the unprecedented cold month of July 1967. It's one reason why this "polar vortex" won't break any all-time July records. Fort Wayne hit 44, Detroit 46, and Cincinnati 51, all on July 14. The cold air got all the way to Pensacola on July 15 and 16, with lows of 61 both mornings. Take a look at the synoptic setup for this cold air outbreak (there apparently wasn't a "polar vortex" invented yet) and how it affected tropical storm activity. Very interesting read.
Line has come thru my part of S C IL, didn't hear much thunder, nor does any lightning show up on the WU radar. Just enough rain to wet street, lightened up as passed over us, then restrengthened as headed SE, joined other two lines of storms. Temps have dropped to 72 (about 12 degrees) but dew points holding in low 70s for now. Winds are more westerly now, have even seen a WNW show up, waiting for the NW to start dropping the dew pt and temps. 52 is forecast low for tonight, 51 for Tues night, 54 for Wed.
Interesting sar, found Spfld, IL record July low was also July 14th, but in 1975, 44 degrees. Certainly close, but no cigar, on this NW flow event. Wonder if there were WPac storms prior to either of these record setting events?
Quoting georgevandenberghe:


What was it you said about the heat and humidity not being that bad in the deep South :-)

I'm with you on heat and summer is my least favorite season. At least with chill you can put on more clothes and/or become more active. There is a practical limit to the clothing heat converse and the combination of less activity and stuff that needs to be done presents an obvious conundrum.

As a climate poke in the eye I like growing my own potatoes. The spring crop is ready in early July in the DC area.. a wonderful time for the backbreaking digging, in our heavy but fertile clays, to get them.


It's the duration that's killer. It's now going on a month and a half. It's not cooling off at night. The low was 75 at 0554 this morning. I'm walking Radar Dog at 11:00 at night because that's when the temperature finally gets below 85. The lack of rain (16 days now) just makes it worse, since everything looks like winter up north - brown and wilted. We supposedly have a 70% chance of thunderstorms tomorrow. I'll believe when I see it. Really, Alabama isn't bad in a "normal" summer, where we get come rain and an occasion day below 90. This has just been a particularly long summer that's not even half over.
Quoting dabirds:
Line has come thru my part of S C IL, didn't hear much thunder, nor does any lightning show up on the WU radar. Just enough rain to wet street, lightened up as passed over us, then restrengthened as headed SE, joined other two lines of storms. Temps have dropped to 72 (about 12 degrees) but dew points holding in low 70s for now. Winds are more westerly now, have even seen a WNW show up, waiting for the NW to start dropping the dew pt and temps. 52 is forecast low for tonight, 51 for Tues night, 54 for Wed.

Apparently you had the pre-frontal trough yesterday and now the actual front is moving through. The pre-frontal trough is what's supposed to give us a better chance of thunderstorms tonight and tomorrow, with the front, or what's left of it, being mostly dry and not getting here until during the day on Wednesday. Just some rain would be nice, with maybe one night below 70.
Quoting dabirds:
Interesting sar, found Spfld, IL record July low was also July 14th, but in 1975, 44 degrees. Certainly close, but no cigar, on this NW flow event. Wonder if there were WPac storms prior to either of these record setting events?

From the last section of the paper in my link -

The amplified wave pattern and stronger than normal subtropical easterlies over the Pacific were associated with tropical storm activity throughout the month in the western Pacific. The four typhoons of the month (Billie,
Clara, Dot, and Ellen) all formed 20-30’ longitude east of the Philippines. Two of these storms struck the China coast while two recurved. One of the latter, after becoming
an extratropical wave, brought torrential rains to southern Japan on July 8-9. News reports indicated 289 dead and 452 injured from flooding and landslides at Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
Quoting 49. georgevandenberghe:



I wouldn't mind the Florida summers if they didn't go on for six months. It's not the intensity of the heat it's the duration through the thousand days of August


As I said the other day, that is indeed a matter of personal preference. Because I don't find the summers here in FL to be too uncomfortable at all. I'll take 8-10 months of what we have right now over even a month of temps near the freezing mark, much less the multiple months that occur with winters up north.
Besides, we have astoundingly comfortable weather anytime outside of the summer. Although I really like the summer here. Once you get past the psychological part of the heat, summer is the best time of year. Lots of life due to lots of rain, and interesting weather.

Most people would agree with me as well, which is why Florida is such a popular vacation spot, not just with nationals, but also with international people.

Of course, there are some people that do indeed prefer cooler weather, and some do really hate hot weather, enough to endure cold long winters up north because they hate the heat here.

In my opinion, we only get small stretches where the heat is truly annoying, but most of the time, I don't think its too bad. Summer heat here is moderated dramatically by the oceans and common showers, thunderstorms and clouds. There are many places that have much worse summers in my opinion heat wise than Florida, i.e. just about every southern state.

Also, Fall, Spring, and winter in my opinion is so much better here than anywhere else in the U.S.

The only thing I don't like about Florida is the lack of mountains, everything else, I am so glad to have grown up living in.

Honestly, if I lived up north, I would be sacred to be seeing cool spells in July, they are going to have this week up north what is literally common highs and lows in this area in the middle of winter.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Hey Sar.....please tell me they don't have a Winnn-Dixie in Eufaula!

This is Alabama. Of course we have a Winn-Dixie...plus two Piggly Wiggly stores. Why?


Atlantic Basin
Quoting 110. sar2401:

I found a very interesting paper about the unprecedented cold month of July 1967. It's one reason why this "polar vortex" won't break any all-time July records. Fort Wayne hit 44, Detroit 46, and Cincinnati 51, all on July 14. The cold air got all the way to Pensacola on July 15 and 16, with lows of 61 both mornings. Take a look at the synoptic setup for this cold air outbreak (there apparently wasn't a "polar vortex" invented yet) and how it affected tropical storm activity. Very interesting read.

Sure it may not be expected to be all time record breaking, but it would be closer if there were less cloudiness expected. Detroit is expected to drop into the low-mid 50's for lows as the cool airmass moves in. However if clouds weren't in place, its reasonable to believe that lows could fall there into at least the upper 40's, which would be pretty darn close to records.

Record breaking, probably not, but certainly weird enough.
Quoting sar2401:

This is Alabama. Of course we have a Winn-Dixie...plus two Piggly Wiggly stores. Why?



Piggly Wiggly stores were great when I was a kid! There are no more stores in most of south Florida now!

Quoting guygee:
JULY 4, 1969 DERECHO, "The Ohio Fireworks Derecho" The first derecho recorded on radar. We just called it "4th of July Storm" and for years everyone knew what you meant, until time faded and new 4th of July storms took its place.

I first heard the term "derecho" only several years ago, but according to Wikipedia, "The word was first used in the American Meteorological Journal in 1888 by Gustavus Detlef Hinrichs in a paper describing the phenomenon and based on a significant derecho event that crossed Iowa on 31 July 1877"

I put up a long post a couple of blogs ago about how the term "derecho" came about. Hinrichs was indeed the first person to use "derecho" but didn't define it well. He was kind of a nut case, and was fired from his University of Iowa and Iowa Weather Bureau jobs because he was in constant fights with everyone. Since "derecho" was associated with Hinrichs, the scandals associated with him meant the term died out in the 1890's. It was "reinvented" by a couple of meteorologists from the SPC who were studying long lived squall lines and was first used by them in a presentation in 1987. Again, they didn't do a good job of coming up with a tight description of what a "derecho" was.

The Ohio July 4, 1969 event was named a "derecho" retrospectively. No meteorologists at the time were using the term. However, if you look at what was described as a "derecho" in Ohio and look at the several definitions, it probably didn't meet the criteria. Over the past 10 years, it's become a general term to describe any long-lived squall line with bow echoes and damaging straight line winds. I guess it's a lot easier to say a "derecho" is coming than all the weather stuff I just wrote. :-)
Quoting 107. PlazaRed:


El Izquierdo.
40/C here today an rising for the next few days.
Interesting that the west coast of Canada is about the same temps as Cordoba which is about the hottest city in Europe during the summer.


I always thought derecho meant straight, and the term had nothing to do with the direction but rather the winds themselves. Not native speaker nor a fluent speaker like my sister who went to school for it so I stand corrected...my Dutch is better than my Spanish anyways. I'm weird that way.
Quoting 105. TropicalAnalystwx13:


And that's exactly why both were retired.


Didn't realize that, probably should have looked into it. Thanks.
Anyone wanna try this literally impossible weather challenge? You can win a cool 500k.

Colts Forecast Challenge
Quoting 114. sar2401:


Apparently you had the pre-frontal trough yesterday and now the actual front is moving through. The pre-frontal trough is what's supposed to give us a better chance of thunderstorms tonight and tomorrow, with the front, or what's left of it, being mostly dry and not getting here until during the day on Wednesday. Just some rain would be nice, with maybe one night below 70.



Pre-frontal and frontal depicted nicely here. Desperately waiting for cloud cover and niar. 104o 'feels like' 109 now, Austin.
Quoting Jedkins01:

Sure it may not be expected to be all time record breaking, but it would be closer if there were less cloudiness expected. Detroit is expected to drop into the low-mid 50's for lows as the cool airmass moves in. However if clouds weren't in place, its reasonable to believe that lows could fall there into at least the upper 40's, which would be pretty darn close to records.

Record breaking, probably not, but certainly weird enough.

The lowest temperature expected in Moosonnee, Ontario, on the shores of James Bay, is expected to be 42. During the 1967 cold air outbreak, temperatures in the same region ranged from 30-33. It's probably not reasonable to expect the modified air getting to Detroit could get much below 50, since the all-time July low resulting from the July 1967 outbreak was 46. The clouds and showers will probably be enough to keep the temperatures above 50.
Quoting 122. win1gamegiantsplease:



I always thought derecho meant straight, and the term had nothing to do with the direction but rather the winds themselves. Not native speaker nor a fluent speaker like my sister who went to school for it so I stand corrected...my Dutch is better than my Spanish anyways. I'm weird that way.



When I wrote el Lefto this morning, I was just making a funny. I taught Spanish for 7 years. Any of the Spanish speakers on here will tell you my Spanish is "derecho". We often write to each other off blog.
Quoting redwagon:



Pre-frontal and frontal depicted nicely here. Desperately waiting for cloud cover and niar. 104o 'feels like' 109 now, Austin.

I'll second that. 100 here with a heat index of 108. Any kind of relief would be most welcome. If we could get some rain with it, that would be an added bonus.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Anyone wanna try this literally impossible weather challenge? You can win a cool 500k.

Colts Forecast Challenge

HA! I'd have a better chance of winning the lottery - twice - than that contest. Did you notice your guess has to be at kickoff time even if the game time has been changed due to "flex scheduling"? I think their half million is pretty safe. :-)
A different angle & the report to go along with the hailstorm video here the other night.

The heat ridge over Russia broke..


http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/site/?pageid=event_d esc&edis_id=HS-20140714-44545-RUSin the 90s F (32-37 C) brought people from Novosibirsk and nearby areas to waterways, such as the Ob River. The normal high in the middle of the July is around 78 F (26 C) in Novosibirsk. People enjoying a day along the Ob River were sent running for cover on Saturday as a cold front sparked severe thunderstorms near the city of Novosibirsk. As temperatures reached 98 F (37 C) on Saturday afternoon, a powerful thunderstorm unleashed heavy rain, damaging winds and large hail on beachgoers along the Ob River. The storm was sparked by a powerful cold front that ushered more seasonable air into the region on Sunday. Following the recent heat, temperatures only climbed to near 80 F (27 C) on Sunday while Monday featured temperatures struggling to reach 70 F (21 C). Temperatures will remain cool the next several days with highs near 70 F (21 C). The next chance for any widespread rainfall will be on Friday into Saturday when a storm system brings the threat for showers and thunderstorms.

Florida is doing its summer time thing. Some strong storms on the Eastcoast.
Quoting Skyepony:
A different angle & the report to go along with the hailstorm video here the other night.


http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/site/?pageid=event_d esc&edis_id=HS-20140714-44545-RUSin the 90s F (32-37 C) brought people from Novosibirsk and nearby areas to waterways, such as the Ob River. The normal high in the middle of the July is around 78 F (26 C) in Novosibirsk. People enjoying a day along the Ob River were sent running for cover on Saturday as a cold front sparked severe thunderstorms near the city of Novosibirsk. As temperatures reached 98 F (37 C) on Saturday afternoon, a powerful thunderstorm unleashed heavy rain, damaging winds and large hail on beachgoers along the Ob River. The storm was sparked by a powerful cold front that ushered more seasonable air into the region on Sunday. Following the recent heat, temperatures only climbed to near 80 F (27 C) on Sunday while Monday featured temperatures struggling to reach 70 F (21 C). Temperatures will remain cool the next several days with highs near 70 F (21 C). The next chance for any widespread rainfall will be on Friday into Saturday when a storm system brings the threat for showers and thunderstorms.



They just showed this video on our local news. They kept saying "in Siberia" like it should be covered with snow. Some people don't realize how much land area "Siberia" covers.
Quoting 128. sar2401:


I'll second that. 100 here with a heat index of 108. Any kind of relief would be most welcome. If we could get some rain with it, that would be an added bonus.


Pre-frontal seems to be about 250 miles from both you and me. How fast is this stuff moving? Will sunset kill the cloud development? Maybe we could see some wind and maybe droplets by midnight?

I'm off tomorrow, would like to finish the truck washing I started yesterday until I heat-stroked out. Nice
to do it in the rain, drizzle, or even cloud.
Quoting 130. sar2401:


HA! I'd have a better chance of winning the lottery - twice - than that contest. Did you notice your guess has to be at kickoff time even if the game time has been changed due to "flex scheduling"? I think their half million is pretty safe. :-)


Yeah and if someone gets close, "oohhhh sorry you put 52 degrees we measured 51 degrees for the last game. Our measurement is final"
2014, the Year the Climate forcing's strike back.



Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Cool and Muggy! Only a few drops of rain today......mostly cloudy all day thus far....At least it's not hot and muggy yet.

Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA (SSSSD)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Mon, 14 Jul 12:20 pm (PDT)
Most Recent Observation: Mon, 14 Jul 12:10 pm PDT (PDT)
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
14 Jul 12:10 pm PDT 79 58 49 E 8G17 OK


At least Vegas is getting a nice break from the monsoon. Only 97 now compared to a high of 112 yesterday. Reno, OTOH, is suffering, with the heat from the tropics being pumped u the spine of the Sierras. Even with some clouds and thunderstorms in the area it's still 104 now. Pretty rare to see Vegas cooler than Reno.
Quoting 122. win1gamegiantsplease:



I always thought derecho meant straight, and the term had nothing to do with the direction but rather the winds themselves. Not native speaker nor a fluent speaker like my sister who went to school for it so I stand corrected...my Dutch is better than my Spanish anyways. I'm weird that way.

In Andalucia, my part of Spain, they say "toda recto" for to go straight, which seems to translate all straight.
Al Derecho is used for to the right and al Izquirda is to the left.
I always think that the Derecho word for right is very European and the Izquirda word is very Arabic in its sound.
Next time the subject of Drerchos come up in a blog, I'll ask around for the local Spanish interpretation of the meaning.
As with all language's meanings also changes with the areas a lot here.
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters......
Quoting redwagon:


Pre-frontal seems to be about 250 miles from both you and me. How fast is this stuff moving? Will sunset kill the cloud development? Maybe we could see some wind and maybe droplets by midnight?

I'm off tomorrow, would like to finish the truck washing I started yesterday until I heat-stroked out. Nice
to do it in the rain, drizzle, or even cloud.

It's slowed down since early this morning. It's just now in Middle TN with some hefty thunderstorms, but now it looks like the trough is moving east instead of south. That means whatever's left has no chance of getting to us before the early morning hours, when instability will be at the minimum. If it keeps moving east before it finally turns south, the energy might get to us during the heat of the day, increasing our chance of real rain. I've seen this kind of thing before though, and the easterly movement of the trough is a sign that it just doesn't have enough energy associated with it to punch through the high. We can just hope that tomorrow will be different but I wouldn't bet the mortgage on it. :-)
Quoting 133. Sfloridacat5:



They just showed this video on our local news. They kept saying "in Siberia" like it should be covered with snow. Some people don't realize how much land area "Siberia" covers.

Novosibirsk,
Coordinates: 55°01′N 82°56′E

About the same latitude as the north of England
This does look pretty bad. It is a small quick moving typhoon, which may keep flooding at a minimum.
Quoting 136. Patrap:

2014, the Year the Climate forcing's strike back.






Did Steven Spielberg kill one of those too?

Some People Think 'Dinosaur Hunter' Steven Spielberg is Evil But They're the Ones Who Should be Ashamed

Quoting 67. TheDawnAwakening:

Bombogenesis is not a new word everyone. It is quite the old word used to describe an intensifying area of low pressure.

By the way there is a developing surface low, and surface circulation southwest of Bermuda. It is no longer upper level in nature and has broken off from out underneath the parent upper level low. However it is quite dry southwest of Bermuda currently and a surface trough is stealing all of the moisture from the developing circulation. Lately any circulation trying to develop without convection has a hard time maintaining itself, it will be interesting to see how it gets convection given that there is 20 knots of northerly shear over it currently. Development is very little right now.


Yes, but the media seemed to take hold of it this year (notably, TWC) to hype routine weather events, just like "The Polar Vortex".
Quoting 138. PlazaRed:


In Andalucia, my part of Spain, they say "toda recto" for to go straight, which seems to translate all straight.
Al Derecho is used for to the right and al Izquirda is to the left.
I always think that the Derecho word for right is very European and the Izquirda word is very Arabic in its sound.
Next time the subject of Drerchos come up in a blog, I'll ask around for the local Spanish interpretation of the meaning.
As with all language's meanings also changes with the areas a lot here.


In school it seems the textbooks were taught in European Spanish and I've heard Portuguese classes were the same way. For instance I didn't know café was not only coffee but the color brown as we were taught marrón in school. Spanish is so widely spoken that each country and region probably has their own word for multiple common things. I guess it goes for every language, English in Britain and America, Dutch in Holland and Belgium, Italian in Italy and Switzerland etc.

Doesn't show traces, so zilch, nada, diddly squat....
I went out to get the mail and got spit on a bit, thought about it
a few minutes later and was going to snap a picture and it was
all gone. It peppered the street pretty good, but that was all.


NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
625 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN INDIANA
WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY EVENING FROM 625 PM UNTIL 1100 PM EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
Quoting 127. Grothar:




When I wrote el Lefto this morning, I was just making a funny. I taught Spanish for 7 years. Any of the Spanish speakers on here will tell you my Spanish is "derecho". We often write to each other off blog.


Much better than mine, I'm a bit out of the league. Cheers.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Did Steven Spielberg kill one of those too?

Some People Think 'Dinosaur Hunter' Steven Spielberg is Evil But They're the Ones Who Should be Ashamed


Well, Steven Spielberg is evil, but that has nothing to do with hunting extinct creatures. It's comments like these on Facebook that make me nervous about looking too closely at the people in the line with me at Walmart.
Quoting PedleyCA:

Doesn't show traces, so zilch, nada, diddly squat....
I went out to get the mail and got spit on a bit, thought about it
a few minutes later and was going to snap a picture and it was
all gone. It peppered the street pretty good, but that was all.

Oh, c'mon, Palomar Mountain and Stockton each got 0.01", so it wasn't a complete miss. I wonder if that gauge in Stockton isn't too close to a sprinkler or something? ;-)
Quoting Skyepony:
A different angle & the report to go along with the hailstorm video here the other night.

The heat ridge over Russia broke..


http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/site/?pageid=event_d esc&edis_id=HS-20140714-44545-RUSin the 90s F (32-37 C) brought people from Novosibirsk and nearby areas to waterways, such as the Ob River. The normal high in the middle of the July is around 78 F (26 C) in Novosibirsk. People enjoying a day along the Ob River were sent running for cover on Saturday as a cold front sparked severe thunderstorms near the city of Novosibirsk. As temperatures reached 98 F (37 C) on Saturday afternoon, a powerful thunderstorm unleashed heavy rain, damaging winds and large hail on beachgoers along the Ob River. The storm was sparked by a powerful cold front that ushered more seasonable air into the region on Sunday. Following the recent heat, temperatures only climbed to near 80 F (27 C) on Sunday while Monday featured temperatures struggling to reach 70 F (21 C). Temperatures will remain cool the next several days with highs near 70 F (21 C). The next chance for any widespread rainfall will be on Friday into Saturday when a storm system brings the threat for showers and thunderstorms.


I wonder what the water temperature was in the Ob River at the time? Couldn't have been too high. Those Russians are pretty tough.
Sun is up on Rammasun, luckily with the eye still mostly filled in. Landfall should be only a few hours from now, the center may end up passing very near to Manilla.

Very tropical airmass today. Convection has been mushy with smaller more isolated cells. Clouds moving a little faster than normal.



Typhoon 09W

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 JUL 2014 Time : 220000 UTC
Lat : 12:52:26 N Lon : 125:57:15 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.8 / 974.0mb/ 84.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.8 4.8 4.2

Center Temp : -69.7C Cloud Region Temp : -78.7C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 82km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 26.7 degrees




Quoting WIBadgerWeather:


Yes, but the media seemed to take hold of it this year (notably, TWC) to hype routine weather events, just like "The Polar Vortex".

I guess this kind of thing is inevitable once weather crossed the line from news to entertainment. Naming of winter storms is another example. I suspect it's only other meteorologists who would rip them a new one that stops them from coming up with all sorts of memorable terms. The could rename "derecho" to "line sqaull del infierno". :-)
163. FOREX
GFS not showing anything through end of July.
Quoting 156. sar2401:


Oh, c'mon, Palomar Mountain and Stockton each got 0.01", so it wasn't a complete miss. I wonder if that gauge in Stockton isn't too close to a sprinkler or something? ;-)


It's funny that I didn't notice those 2 (RED) ones, Must be getting old. Today is my Birthday and I guess that trace was my gift.
Quoting opal92nwf:
Very tropical airmass today. Convection has been mushy with smaller more isolated cells. Clouds moving a little faster than normal.
Yes, our storms, such as they are, are very mushy as well. I was just out watering and we are getting gusty west winds. It's not thunderstorm outflow since the wind is hot and it's still 96, but my dewpoint went from 70 to 73 in the last half hour. I don't know what the deal is with that. I just wish this front would get on the stick and get moving in our direction.
Quoting 65. Grothar:

If a derecho is moving from east to west, would that have to name it "el Lefto"?


El Pendejo...
Quoting 147. Randrewl:




Pat just posts nonsense on here and I want to know what that means Patrap!
Why would you post some slimy photo like that with your comment.

Tell me why and what it means please. I would not post something like that myself.



Are you just TRYING to get a timeout? Because it sure can happen in a blink if you want it.

That is the HYDRA, where if you cut the main head off, many others grow to strike back.

Mess with Pat, you're messing with the whole WUpark.
Quoting PedleyCA:


It's funny that I didn't notice those 2 (RED) ones, Must be getting old. Today is my Birthday and I guess that trace was my gift.

You get forgiven for everything on your birthday. Happy Birthday, Ped. Regardless of what they say, life doesn't get better after 40, but I hope you have a good one anyway.
Quoting 164. PedleyCA:



It's funny that I didn't notice those 2 (RED) ones, Must be getting old. Today is my Birthday and I guess that trace was my gift.


HAPPY BIRTHDAY PEDLEY!!!!!!!

May you have many more.



Manilla should be OK as this storm will be quite a bit shredded to some degree before the hit there.
The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a

* Flood Advisory for... west central Palm Beach County in Southeast Florida... southern Glades County in southern Florida... northeastern Hendry County in southern Florida...

* until 845 PM EDT

* at 642 PM EDT...Doppler radar indicated another thunderstorm developing over this area that is capable of producing another 1 to 3 inches on top of the already rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches that occurred earlier this afternoon from the previous thunderstorms. These rainfall amounts will lead to possible street flooding in the area. If the rainfall rates increase more than forecast...then a Flash Flood Warning maybe needed for this area.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include... Clewiston...Lake Harbor and Harlem.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause ponding of water in urban areas...highways...streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage areas and low lying spots. Do not attempt to travel across flooded roads. Find alternate routes. It takes only a few inches of swiftly flowing water to carry vehicles away.

Do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the roadway. The water depth may be too great to allow your car to cross safely. Move to higher ground.

To report flooding...have the nearest law enforcement agency relay your report to the National Weather Service forecast office.

A Flood Advisory means river or stream flows are elevated...or ponding of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is imminent. Do not attempt to travel across flooded roads. Find alternate routes. It takes only a few inches of swiftly flowing water to carry vehicles away.
Quoting 164. PedleyCA:



It's funny that I didn't notice those 2 (RED) ones, Must be getting old. Today is my Birthday and I guess that trace was my gift.


Happy Birthday Ped! Hope you get some more rain really soon!
Quoting FOREX:
GFS not showing anything through end of July.

Yes, but remember when the GFS was showing a storm in the SW Caribbean every day in June? It was wrong then and is just as likely to be wrong about showing nothing. The NHC has it about right, looking five days out. Anything longer starts to fall into the guessing and wishing categories. :-)
Quoting redwagon:


Are you just TRYING to get a timeout? Because it sure can happen in a blink if you want it.

That is the HYDRA, where if you cut the main head off, many others grow to strike back.

Mess with Pat, you're messing with the whole WUpark.


Well, thanks for your warning but if I posted some of the stuff Pat posts I would be banned...but I do not!

Quoting 168. sar2401:


You get forgiven for everything on your birthday. Happy Birthday, Ped. Regardless of what they say, life doesn't get better after 40, but I hope you have a good one anyway.


I know that for sure. it surely doesn't, just gets harder....
176. etxwx
Quoting 164. PedleyCA:


. Today is my Birthday and I guess that trace was my gift.


Happy Birthday Pedley!!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a

* Flood Advisory for... west central Palm Beach County in Southeast Florida... southern Glades County in southern Florida... northeastern Hendry County in southern Florida...

Floods..floods...I'm trying to remember. Doesn't that have something to do with water that actually falls from the sky? I personally think it's an urban legend. :-)
Quoting 169. Dakster:



HAPPY BIRTHDAY PEDLEY!!!!!!!

May you have many more.


What you up to Dakster? You still in the SE corner?
177..It will be your turn soon sar. Mother Nature always finds a way to even things out.
Quoting sar2401:

Floods..floods...I'm trying to remember. Doesn't that have something to do with water that actually falls from the sky? I personally think it's an urban legend. :-)


LOL...maybe a legend but I think it is falling from the sky today.

It is not currently AGW caused flooding.

Quoting 177. sar2401:


Floods..floods...I'm trying to remember. Doesn't that have something to do with water that actually falls from the sky? I personally think it's an urban legend. :-)

These only happen other places, nothing to worry about, move along now....

 
346  
WFUS55 KBOU 142311  
TORBOU  
COC039-073-142345-  
/O.NEW.KBOU.TO.W.0079.140714T2311Z-140714T2345Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO  
511 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHEASTERN ELBERT COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...  
SOUTHWEST LINCOLN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...  
 
* UNTIL 545 PM MDT  
 
* AT 511 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF RUSH...OR 36 MILES  
SOUTHWEST OF LIMON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
KUTCH.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  

The forecast for Rammasun sure has been difficult. Back before this was designated, the ECMWF did not even indicate development while the GFS made it a 910mb monster. Both were wrong. The tracks were off too.

Quoting 175. PedleyCA:



I know that for sure. it surely doesn't, just gets harder....


I find it isn't as hard at 40 as it was at 18.

Life isn't as much of struggle as it was when I was a young adult.
 
536  
WGUS55 KPUB 142315  
FFWPUB  
COC041-119-150045-  
/O.NEW.KPUB.FF.W.0021.140714T2315Z-140715T0045Z/  
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
FLASH FLOOD WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO  
515 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO HAS ISSUED A  
 
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...  
NORTHEASTERN TELLER COUNTY IN CENTRAL COLORADO...  
WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...  
 
* UNTIL 645 PM MDT  
 
* AT 513 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING  
HEAVY RAIN OVER CRYSTOLA AND GREEN MOUNTAIN FALLS. UP TO A HALF  
INCH OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN. COMBINED WITH THE SATURATED  
GROUND FROM HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL EARLIER TODAY...FLASH FLOODING IS  
EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE BURN SCAR  
WILL RESULT IN DEBRIS FLOW MOVING THROUGH THE WALDO CANYON  
DRAINAGE. THE DEBRIS FLOW CAN CONSIST OF ROCK...MUD...VEGETATION  
AND OTHER LOOSE MATERIALS.  
 
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...  
WOODLAND PARK...MANITOU SPRINGS...GREEN MOUNTAIN FALLS...CHIPITA  
PARK...CASCADE AND CRYSTOLA.  
 
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED  
AREA.  
 
THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING STREAMS AND DRAINAGES...CAMP CREEK...  
INCLUDING QUEENS CANYON...GARDEN OF THE GODS...ROCKLEDGE RANCH...31ST  
STREET CHANNEL...FOUNTAIN CREEK...NORTH FORK FRENCH CREEK...SAND  
GULCH...INCLUDING CHIPITA PARK...CABIN CREEK...SEVERY CREEK...FRENCH  
CREEK...WILLIAMS CANYON...INCLUDING MANITOU SPRINGS...WALDO CANYON...  
INCLUDING MANITOU SPRINGS...WELLINGTON GULCH...INCLUDING CHIPITA PARK  
AND GLEN COVE CREEK.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.  
 
DO NOT ENTER OR CROSS FLOWING WATER OR WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH.  
 
MOVE AWAY FROM RECENTLY BURNED AREAS. LIFE THREATENING FLOODING OF  
CREEKS...ROADS AND NORMALLY DRY ARROYOS IS LIKELY. THE HEAVY RAINS  
WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ROCKSLIDES...MUDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOWS IN STEEP  
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND THESE AREAS.  
 
PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY WHEN YOU  
CAN DO SO SAFELY.  
Latest storm reports:



Quoting 163. FOREX:

GFS not showing anything through end of July.


Good.
Quoting 179. GeoffreyWPB:

177..It will be your turn soon sar. Mother Nature always finds a way to even things out.



The whole troposphere of CONUS is responding to this intrusion of cold Canada air. Teleconnections, indeed, a huge typhoon causing a busting of the Jet Stream 'fence'.
Rammasun is getting bigger in size to.


Feature N of PR working its way down.
Quoting 191. stormpetrol:



Feature N of PR working its way down.


The feature north of Puerto Rico will be moving North.
Quoting 185. Dakster:



I find it isn't as hard at 40 as it was at 18.

Life isn't as much of struggle as it was when I was a young adult.

Give it time, it will get more fun(sic)....
Is that an eye?

Quoting 194. Grothar:

Is that an eye?


maybe a eye soon
196. FOREX
Quoting 192. Grothar:



The feature north of Puerto Rico will be moving North.


lmao Grothar, I think he meant working down to lower level.
Quoting 192. Grothar:



The feature north of Puerto Rico will be moving North.


IntelliGeoff on the job!

Quoting 196. FOREX:



lmao Grothar, I think he meant working down to lower level.



Nevermind LOL
Quoting 197. GeoffreyWPB:



IntelliGeoff on the job!




I saw you posted another image earlier. Please stick with IntelliGeoff. It confuses us when you post something different.
Quoting 194. Grothar:

Is that an eye?



I saw it first.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON JUL 14 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure located about 1550 miles east-southeast of
the Big Island of Hawaii has become better defined over the past
several hours. Further development of this system is possible over
the next few days while it moves toward the west or west-northwest
at 10 to 15 mph and into the central Pacific Basin on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

new invest will be here soon my friends!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I saw it first.


Nuh-uh!
Quoting 201. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I saw it first.


$#@&*
I still see lots of wind shear!!
If Rammasun has more time in warm water....is almost 100% of chance that is on a RI right now and if he has more time....he would see a category 4 at least. i guess...
207. FOREX
Quoting 202. hurricanes2018:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON JUL 14 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure located about 1550 miles east-southeast of
the Big Island of Hawaii has become better defined over the past
several hours. Further development of this system is possible over
the next few days while it moves toward the west or west-northwest
at 10 to 15 mph and into the central Pacific Basin on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

new invest will be here soon my friends!


Wish the Atlantic and Gulf would wake up.



big ??
Typhoon 09W

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 JUL 2014 Time : 231500 UTC
Lat : 12:47:58 N Lon : 125:37:40 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.8 / 974.0mb/ 84.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.8 4.8 6.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -54.9C Cloud Region Temp : -79.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 82km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 27.0 degrees




Quoting 208. hurricanes2018:




big ??


That's Mr. Big to you.....
Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 5:02 PM PDT on July 14, 2014
Mostly Cloudy
88.1 °F / 31.2 °C
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 51%
Dew Point: 68 °F / 20 °C
Wind: 14.0 mph / 22.5 km/h / 6.3 m/s from the North
Wind Gust: 18.0 mph / 29.0 km/h
Pressure: 29.86 in / 1011 hPa (Falling)
Heat Index: 92 °F / 33 °C
Visibility: 10.0 miles / 16.1 kilometers
88.7F/31.5C here today after a late start, humid, nasty Florida type of day, and w/o the rain...
Could you imagine the blog if we had this??!!!
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
819 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL BURLINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...

* UNTIL 845 PM EDT

* AT 818 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR MEDFORD...
OR 13 MILES EAST OF CAMDEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
LUMBERTON BY 825 PM EDT...
MOUNT HOLLY BY 830 PM EDT...
PEMBERTON BY 835 PM EDT...
WRIGHTSTOWN...JOBSTOWN AND 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBUS BY 840 PM
EDT...
BROWNS MILLS BY 845 PM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT MONDAY
EVENING FOR DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

Quoting opal92nwf:
Could you imagine the blog if we had this??!!!


Mass aneurysm, I'd imagine. A surprise Category 5 hurricane in the Gulf from something that was a tropical storm a few hours ago, only to weaken to below major hurricane status right before landfall.

I vividly recall a big (perhaps biggest) blog freak out during Ike when it looked like it might make its way towards SFL as a Category 4 .
Novosibirsk seems to have hit an all time record high on July 12th (the day of the hailstorm)

98.6F / 37.0C according to wunderground history


And the record according to wiki is 97.9F / 36.6C

It had been in the upper 80s and low 90s a lot during the week before
, so the river was probably as warm as it gets.
Quoting opal92nwf:
Could you imagine the blog if we had this??!!!


I think we've been through a couple of those.

wet..

Quoting CybrTeddy:


Mass aneurysm, I'd imagine. A surprise Category 5 hurricane in the Gulf from something that was a tropical storm a few hours ago, only to weaken to below major hurricane status right before landfall.

I vividly recall big (perhaps biggest) blog freak out during Ike when it looked like it might make its way towards SFL as a Category 4+.



Yes, I remember you weenies freaking out and then I called it three days before land fall on the Bolivar peninsula!
Quoting 213. PedleyCA:



Track of Typhoon #GlendaPH via Met-Hydro Decision Support Infosys (MDSI)

To view this map go here
and on the menu at the right, select PAGASA Radar then tick Virac.

As you can see, Glenda is south of the PAGASA forecast track (green line).
Quoting sar2401:

I guess this kind of thing is inevitable once weather crossed the line from news to entertainment. Naming of winter storms is another example. I suspect it's only other meteorologists who would rip them a new one that stops them from coming up with all sorts of memorable terms. The could rename "derecho" to "line sqaull del infierno". :-)



After we've exhausted the list of words we can get a whole bunch more by putting "super" in front of them :-(


My favorite description is

"unprecedented except for all of the precedents"

I will say though that the DC area is experiencing the hottest July since 2013!

Quoting 214. opal92nwf:

Could you imagine the blog if we had this??!!!



Can you imagine me if we had this?

Well, okay. I would be thankful for the weakening from a Category 5. I'd want something stronger than a Category 1, but I certainly don't have a deathwish. Not much logic in chasing a storm you won't survive, lol.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Did Steven Spielberg kill one of those too?

Some People Think 'Dinosaur Hunter' Steven Spielberg is Evil But They're the Ones Who Should be Ashamed

That had to be an old photo. Found another story in the L.A. Times about the photo which was taken 21 years ago on the set of Jurassic Park.

The L.A. Times story quotes one Facebook user as commenting, "If this senseless poaching continues these gentle creatures may become extinct, but your $20.00 per month could help save these endangered creatures, please reach out & help the Tri-tops,"... LOL

Tropical weather related :) Iniki hit while film makers were on Kauai shooting Jurassic Park.
Evening all...
Quoting 217. CybrTeddy:



Mass aneurysm, I'd imagine. A surprise Category 5 hurricane in the Gulf from something that was a tropical storm a few hours ago, only to weaken to below major hurricane status right before landfall.

I vividly recall big (perhaps biggest) blog freak out during Ike when it looked like it might make its way towards SFL as a Category 4 .
Yeah... they had Ike tracked to go right over New Providence from SE to NW.... then slamming the SE coast of FL ....

Quoting 222. vortfix:
Yes, I remember you weenies freaking out and then I called it three days before land fall on the Bolivar peninsula!
But that was AFTER the mass freakout and that freakish SW turn over Cuba....
Let's at least make a run for Hurricane Genevieve. The east Pacific has been lacking since Cristina. We need to fix that.

I love these...

But that was AFTER the mass freakout and that freakish SW turn over Cuba....


Whatever you say. My blogs are still here if you care to look it up.

232. txjac
Quoting 225. georgevandenberghe:




After we've exhausted the list of words we can get a whole bunch more by putting "super" in front of them :-(


My favorite description is

"unprecedented except for all of the precedents"

I will say though that the DC area is experiencing the hottest July since 2013!




Speaking of DC ...where's Washi been?
Quoting 231. vortfix:

But that was AFTER the mass freakout and that freakish SW turn over Cuba....


Whatever you say. My blogs are still here if you care to look it up.


Not at all denying your call.... lol ...
Quoting 217. CybrTeddy:



Mass aneurysm, I'd imagine. A surprise Category 5 hurricane in the Gulf from something that was a tropical storm a few hours ago, only to weaken to below major hurricane status right before landfall.

I vividly recall big (perhaps biggest) blog freak out during Ike when it looked like it might make its way towards SFL as a Category 4+.

I did a precis on an article (may have even been from the Sun Sentinel) during my 10th grade year that was explaining how Ike could be a huge threat to S. Florida and how it could somewhat be like Andrew.
Quoting 178. PedleyCA:



What you up to Dakster? You still in the SE corner?


Yes... But not for long... Going to the NW corner soon enough.
Quoting 227. Barefootontherocks:

That had to be an old photo. Found another story in the L.A. Times about the photo which was taken 21 years ago on the set of Jurassic Park.

The L.A. Times story quotes one Facebook user as commenting, "If this senseless poaching continues these gentle creatures may become extinct, but your $20.00 per month could help save these endangered creatures, please reach out & help the Tri-tops,"... LOL

Tropical weather related :) Iniki hit while film makers were on Kauai shooting Jurassic Park.


So that storm where the eggs were lost wasn't all movie set fake? (or it didn't really have to be a movie set fake...)



invest 90E is here!!
Quoting 229. KoritheMan:

Let's see at least make a run for Hurricane Genevieve. The east Pacific has been lacking since Cristina. We need to fix that.




its runing out of time be for it cross over all so we have had D E and F storm since we had Cristina so where doing good
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
177..It will be your turn soon sar. Mother Nature always finds a way to even things out.

Yes, I suppose that's true. How about just a one foot flood say...tomorrow? That doesn't seem like too much to ask of Ma Nature after she locked me in a sauna bath for the past month. :-)
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Mass aneurysm, I'd imagine. A surprise Category 5 hurricane in the Gulf from something that was a tropical storm a few hours ago, only to weaken to below major hurricane status right before landfall.

I vividly recall big (perhaps biggest) blog freak out during Ike when it looked like it might make its way towards SFL as a Category 4 .



No, I can't deny that Teddy, but you were very young and I was hot on this track and none of that happened until the Bolivar peninsula and all the contributions came forth from WU members to help those displaced people!

It was a horrible mess and so many members came forth to help...including Pat, myself,Emmy, StormJunkie, Aqua, Rainman, Presslord, Beels and so very many others gave so many thousands of dollars. We were able to help so many people!

Quoting Dakster:


Yes... But not for long... Going to the NW corner soon enough.

I don't if I missed your answer, Dak. You getting on with a department up there or just taking it easy?
244. txjac
Quoting 239. hydrus:




Hydrus, apologies in advance ...where are you located?
Are you getting rain? Love looking at the big "woosh" coming down to cool things off, well for some, might not make much of a difference here in Houston
Quoting 223. redwagon:

Quoting 213. PedleyCA:




I see an eye. Saw it first.
Quoting vortfix:



No, I can't deny that Teddy, but you were very young and I was hot on this track and none of that happened until the Bolivar peninsula and all the contributions came forth from WU members to help those displaced people!

It was a horrible mess and so many members came forth to help...including Pat, myself, StormJunkie, Aqua, Rainman, Presslord and so very many others gave so many thousands of dollars. We were able to help so many people!


Vort, where have you been? I haven't seen a post from you in ages. I remember that very well. I think it was the first time that a lot of members here got together and actually gave some money to help those people out. I wish I could do it for every storm.
Please do not forget...
the weather underground and its participating (early on) members are fully responsible for turning weather into entertainment. Goes right back to the first Atlantic hurricane season the blogs were here - starring JeffMasters, add: Steve Gregory, leftyy420, STORMTOP, StormJunkie, Skyepony, weatherguy03, subtropic, DocNDswamp, Seflagamma, Sheraqueenofthebeach, hurricanecrab, Lovethetropics, aquak9, IKE, CosmicEvents and others including a now world famous wu blogger who currently uses another handle but then called himself by a numeric handle followed by a handle commemorative of that season, KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta.

Prior to 2005 wu had photo members, but it was these and other blog stars who made our weather-watching community so interesting thousands followed. So many followed, TWC bought the wunderground site and joined the source of the weather as entertainment force - the wu - which had been their biggest competition.

And so, every one of you, when you post something on wunderground blogs, when you upload a photo, for better or for worse, in sickness and in stealth, remember wunderground founded the "weather as entertainment" concept, (add): and you are a participant.
:)
Quoting sar2401:

Vort, where have you been? I haven't seen a post from you in ages. I remember that very well. I think it was the first time that a lot of members here got together and actually gave some money to help those people out. I wish I could do it for every storm.


I'm still around man...but when I show up I usually get a ban notice...just like tonight!
I only come around when the truth of this blog needs to be told all over again!

Another angel gets its' wings.
Quoting vortfix:



No, I can't deny that Teddy, but you were very young and I was hot on this track and none of that happened until the Bolivar peninsula and all the contributions came forth from WU members to help those displaced people!

It was a horrible mess and so many members came forth to help...including Pat, myself,Emmy, StormJunkie, Aqua, Rainman, Presslord, Beels and so very many others gave so many thousands of dollars. We were able to help so many people!



True. I don't remember making that many forecasting contributions besides "OMG!" and "HOLY WAFFLES" and other gems of brilliance I spouted on here before 2009.




20 WEST
Quoting Dakster:


So that storm where the eggs were lost wasn't all movie set fake? (or it didn't really have to be a movie set fake...)
Some of what they shot was real rain, from what I understand. Not sure which scenes but I always thought the early scenes with the Jeep/SUV ride look like real tropical rain. (link added)
Quoting 116. Jedkins01:



As I said the other day, that is indeed a matter of personal preference. Because I don't find the summers here in FL to be too uncomfortable at all. I'll take 8-10 months of what we have right now over even a month of temps near the freezing mark, much less the multiple months that occur with winters up north.
Besides, we have astoundingly comfortable weather anytime outside of the summer. Although I really like the summer here. Once you get past the psychological part of the heat, summer is the best time of year. Lots of life due to lots of rain, and interesting weather.

Most people would agree with me as well, which is why Florida is such a popular vacation spot, not just with nationals, but also with international people.

Of course, there are some people that do indeed prefer cooler weather, and some do really hate hot weather, enough to endure cold long winters up north because they hate the heat here.

In my opinion, we only get small stretches where the heat is truly annoying, but most of the time, I don't think its too bad. Summer heat here is moderated dramatically by the oceans and common showers, thunderstorms and clouds. There are many places that have much worse summers in my opinion heat wise than Florida, i.e. just about every southern state.

Also, Fall, Spring, and winter in my opinion is so much better here than anywhere else in the U.S.

The only thing I don't like about Florida is the lack of mountains, everything else, I am so glad to have grown up living in.

Honestly, if I lived up north, I would be sacred to be seeing cool spells in July, they are going to have this week up north what is literally common highs and lows in this area in the middle of winter.


When I started gardening at 14, my first enemy was cold and frost which wiped out the winter third of the year in DC. I dreamed of living in the subtropics with a much longer growing season and the prospect of being able to grow cool season crops through winter. The heat down there, while it lasted longer, didn't look worse than what I saw in DC (and later NJ) from time to time. Certainly managable.

My first fall in Tallahassee seemed like heaven. October was 6F above normal in 1984 and growing conditions were ideal. Then normal November conditions came and the warm season stuff froze but the cool season stuff was okay. The cool season stuff froze out in December but I figured I'd work on protection methods for next year and anyway in Tallahassee, how far away could spring be.

In December I blew out my knee skiing and that was it until March for any driving or gardening. I got really good cool season stuff that spring though.. spring gardening really is more fun in North Florida than further north. I also smiled as I picked my first corn in mid May and first tomatoes in late May and thought I was set until thanksgiving for veggies.

Then came summer. Steady heat. Shorter days than further north. Lots of rain which leached the sandy soil. I could not get tomatoes or corn past late July. The lima beans hardly bore.. nights too hot. The melons got nematodes and then the soil got and stayed too wet for new younger transplants. After July it was difficult to get much except for eggplants and peppers which thrived.
A lot of plant diseases do better with the FL 10 hour nights than with the midlatitude 9 hour nights.

Fall 1985 was warmer still and the heat lasted into November. Cool season stuff survived but the quality was terrible. Warm season stuff did not do well with the short days. Hurricane Kate pushed over my broccoli but it tasted like bitter cardboard anyway so.. no loss. Then December was very cold and froze out everything.

I made a few changes and grew much better stuff in 1986. Overall I did grow a lot of veggies for a large
fraction of the year. But summer gardening in the deep south is a test of character. If business took me there
I could be happy gardening in FL Panhandle conditions especially in the really long pleasant spring. But overall I prefer here. With a run of exceptionally warm summers in the DC area I'm starting though to see some of the problems I saw in TLH.

It is a benefit on winter mornings not to go out and scrape, chip, hack, shovel or tunnel through whatever fell out the sky last night, and then hack into the frozen car and find it won't start, deal with warming and jumping it. then shovel out more to finally get out of the parking spot and on the way. And once my tomatoes in DC freeze in November, that's it till late June.. seven months!

I should add though that I am very very thankful that I had the opportunity to live Tallahassee and experience a different climate and set of gardening conditions from what I was used to. Had I spent longer, I probably would have taken a "challenge accepted" attitude and figured out how to get stuff not usually tried there, to actually thrive as I do with gardenias and citrus in the DC area. I was however in graduate school and my PRIMARY pursuit was my studies culminating in my 1987 M.S. from FSU and THAT education along with my PSU undergraduate work provided an excellent foundation for the rest of my career.
Quoting 247. Barefootontherocks:

Please do not forget...
the weather underground and its participating (early on) members are fully responsible for turning weather into entertainment. Goes right back to the first Atlantic hurricane season the blogs were here - starring JeffMasters, leftyy420, STORMTOP, StormJunkie, Skyepony, weatherguy03, subtropic, DocNDswamp, Seflagamma, Sheraqueenofthebeach, hurricanecrab, Lovethetropics, aquak9, IKE, CosmicEvents and others including a now world famous wu blogger who currently uses another handle but then called himself by a numeric handle followed by a handle commemorative of that season, KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta.

Prior to 2005 wu had photo members, but it was these and other blog stars who made our weather-watching community so interesting thousands followed. So many followed, TWC bought the wunderground site and joined the source of the weather as entertainment force - the wu - which had been their biggest competition.

And so, every one of you, when you post something on wunderground blogs, when you upload a photo, for better or for worse, in sickness and in stealth, remember wunderground founded the "weather as entertainment" concept.
:)


who?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


God, 2005 was a terrible year but just imagine if so many of those storms didn't recurve. It could have been far worse. I wonder if the NHC ever thought they's actually use all the those Greek names? All I remember is that, if 2006 turned out like 2004/2005, I was moving to somewhere like Idaho. I felt like a sitting duck.

OK, so 2005 was much different than any year before it (that we know of) and since. What caused it? What was so different about the synoptic setup? Why have there been so relatively few storms since? Is there a connection? I don't know the answers, but someone smarter than me must have some reasonable guesses.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


who?



Oh my...God bless you!
Quoting vortfix:


I'm still around man...but when I show up I usually get a ban notice...just like tonight!
I only come around when the truth of this blog needs to be told all over again!


A ban notice? Why? I don't remember you being any worse than the rest of us back in the days of the wild, wild west.
Quoting sar2401:

God, 2005 was a terrible year but just imagine if so many of those storms didn't recurve. It could have been far worse. I wonder if the NHC ever thought they's actually use all the those Greek names? All I remember is that, if 2006 turned out like 2004/2005, I was moving to somewhere like Idaho. I felt like a sitting duck.

OK, so 2005 was much different than any year before it (that we know of) and since. What caused it? What was so different about the synoptic setup? Why have there been so relatively few storms since? Is there a connection? I don't know the answers, but someone smarter than me must have some reasonable guesses.


Wilma was my 2005 Halloween storm!
It was preceeded by Frances and Jeane....I had to contend with three eyes in two seasons!
It was not a lot of fun!

Quoting 244. txjac:



Hydrus, apologies in advance ...where are you located?
Are you getting rain? Love looking at the big "woosh" coming down to cool things off, well for some, might not make much of a difference here in Houston


Frying here in Austin.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


who?
I don't mean to be coy. I feel more comfortable if I leave it to him to tell you if he wants to.
:)
Quoting 255. sar2401:


God, 2005 was a terrible year but just imagine if so many of those storms didn't recurve. It could have been far worse. I wonder if the NHC ever thought they's actually use all the those Greek names? All I remember is that, if 2006 turned out like 2004/2005, I was moving to somewhere like Idaho. I felt like a sitting duck.

OK, so 2005 was much different than any year before it (that we know of) and since. What caused it? What was so different about the synoptic setup? Why have there been so relatively few storms since? Is there a connection? I don't know the answers, but someone smarter than me must have some reasonable guesses.


I feel like a sitting duck every time intense convection fires near me. The time scale for downbursts is only minutes and tornadic circulations only slightly longer. I just hope my number doesn't come up. Just today I got the call from home "Dad, a tree fell on the Mazda and it's too big to clear". Fortunately it was only a 6" branch and I only have one dent on the roof.. no other damage. A small chainsaw dealt with it in fifteen minutes.
Quoting georgevandenberghe:


I feel like a sitting duck every time intense convection fires near me. The time scale for downbursts is only minutes and tornadic circulations only slightly longer. I just hope my number doesn't come up. Just today I got the call from home "Dad, a tree fell on the Mazda and it's too big to clear". Fortunately it was only a 6" branch and I only have one dent on the roof.. no other damage. A small chainsaw dealt with it in fifteen minutes.


Wow! You ask some very penetrating questions.

Maybe you should send an email to the NHC! Ask them.

I'm serious...I have done it many times and have received some exclusive answers.

If ya really want to know...ask the pros!
Quoting 202. hurricanes2018:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON JUL 14 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure located about 1550 miles east-southeast of
the Big Island of Hawaii has become better defined over the past
several hours. Further development of this system is possible over
the next few days while it moves toward the west or west-northwest
at 10 to 15 mph and into the central Pacific Basin on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

new invest will be here soon my friends!

May I be frank?
For those of us in Florida/Bahamas/GOM/Caribbean (i.e., most of us) this is a nonevent.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #35
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON RAMMASUN (1409)
9:00 AM JST July 15 2014
==================================

Sea East Of The Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Rammasun (970 hPa) located at 12.7N 125.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 13 knots.

Storm Force Winds
===============
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
140 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Forecast and Intensity
==================
24 HRS: 14.3N 121.9E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Philippines Area
48 HRS: 17.1N 117.2E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
72 HRS: 18.8N 112.8E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea

On July 14 at 1500 UTC (11 a.m. EDT), Typhoon Rammasun had maximum sustained winds near 75 knots. Rammasun was moving to the west-southwestward at 10 knots. It was centered near 12.7 north latitude and 127.6 east longitude, about 435 nautical miles southeast of Manila, and closing in on the central Visayas region of the Philippines.

Typhoon Rammasun is expected to make landfall in the eastern Visayas region of the Philippines around July 15 at 0000 UTC (July 14 at 8 p.m. EDT). On July 13, Public storm warning signal #1 was in force in the following Luzon provinces: Camarines Norte & Sur, Catanduanes, Albay and Sorsogon, and Public storm warning signal #1 was in force in the Visayas province of Northern Samar.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center expects Rammasun to move across the central and northern Philippines in a northwesterly direction crossing near Manila around July 16 at 0000 UTC (July 15 at 8 p.m. EDT), then moving into the South China Sea for another landfall in mainland China, just north of Hainan Island late on July 18 as a typhoon.
Source: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center
Quoting 266. Chicklit:

This one is hitting the Southern Philippines.



Radar is showing rapid organization over the last few hours specifically within the southern eye wall. Over Laoang.

LINK
Quoting 267. ILwthrfan:



Radar is showing rapid organization over the last few hours specifically within the southern eye wall. Over Laoang.

LINK

Report says central Philippines. Hard to distinguish the island chain since I am not that familiar with it.
Quoting 250. CybrTeddy:



True. I don't remember making that many forecasting contributions besides "OMG!" and "HOLY WAFFLES" and other gems of brilliance I spouted on here before 2009.


At one point, likely back during those days, one of my friends on AIM was like "That CybrTeddy guy is a little paranoid, don't you think?"

"Yeah."

You've changed, Kyle. :P
Quoting 246. sar2401:


Vort, where have you been? I haven't seen a post from you in ages. I remember that very well. I think it was the first time that a lot of members here got together and actually gave some money to help those people out. I wish I could do it for every storm.
This was the start of Portlight. If this blog has been good for nothing else, what we did collectively after Ike was enough to make it all worth the while. In some [many] ways it was our finest hour.
Quoting BahaHurican:
This was the start of Portlight. If this blog has been good for nothing else, what we did collectively after Ike was enough to make it all worth the while. In some [many] ways it was our finest hour.


That's the truth Baha...many people worked many hours to help so many people.

Quoting 248. vortfix:



I'm still around man...but when I show up I usually get a ban notice...just like tonight!
I only come around when the truth of this blog needs to be told all over again!


Already??? You just got here... :o/ ...

On Ike, I remember sitting here screaming "it's gonna hit us!!!!" then watching that SW track to Cuba, then the next thing you know it was hitting Bolivar.... that was a storm to make you change your underwear. Did serious damage well inland, too.
Quoting 257. sar2401:


A ban notice? Why? I don't remember you being any worse than the rest of us back in the days of the wild, wild west.


I had him on ignore until today. For years.

And I... don't even remember why. Probably because I was still immature six years ago. :P
Check that link for the damage.

Quoting 274. BahaHurican:

Already??? You just got here... :o/ ...

On Ike, I remember sitting here screaming "it's gonna hit us!!!!" then watching that SW track to Cuba, then the next thing you know it was hitting Bolivar.... that was a storm to make you change your underwear. Did serious damage well inland, too.


IIRC official reports were 45 to 50 kt gusts in Baton Rouge of all places... while Ike was going the other way.

Interesting storm.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I had him on ignore until today. For years.

And I... don't even remember why. Probably because I was still immature six years ago. :P



Kori...You're cool these days. At least you're not stealing other people's thoughts today!

LOL!
It is amazing how we are all here for the same thing... but yet, ban, ignore, etc.. comes into the picture... don't lose sight my fellow weathermen/women....
Quoting 279. vortfix:




Kori...You're cool these days. At least you're not stealing other people's thoughts today!

LOL!


Huh? Was I was stealing thoughts six years ago?

I probably was, though. :P
Quoting 280. saltydog1327:

It is amazing how we are all here for the same thing... but yet, ban, ignore, etc.. comes into the picture... don't lose sight my fellow weathermen/women....


I can't see unlit driveways at night unless I'm right up on them. I've already lost my sight, bro.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
I love when the oldies come back and pretend they still run the place.


Well, so I'm out of here. Have a great night for those of you that actually run this place!
Are randrewl and vortfix the same person?
286. flsky
Worst we've had so far this summer in Ponce Inlet. The items on my balcony were all anchored, but still got blown around by the storm.



Quoting 285. DonnieBwkGA:

Are randrewl and vortfix the same person?


They talk the same...
I'm an "oldy" don't say too much... don't like to argue basically.... but I have learned a lot listening to you guys since 2006... the different opinions are great, but when it becomes a "....fest" come on.. we are here for the same reason..
Quoting 288. VAbeachhurricanes:



They talk the same...


They sure do....seemed to show up at same time too.
Quoting 264. Chicklit:


May I be frank?
For those of us in Florida/Bahamas/GOM/Caribbean (i.e., most of us) this is a nonevent.
It's better than absolutely nothing, though.... lol.... I'm watching to see if it'll make it all the way to Hawaii.

Quoting 277. vortfix:

Check that link for the damage.


What stood out for me about Bolivar was the absolute devastation caused by that surge. Almost all who died there were surge victims. Even more so than Katrina in MS, where the storm surge was phenomenal, the power of Ike to just wipe whole streets off the map made me understand the destruction caused by surge. Having seen it, there is no way I would consider staying on one of those islands in a hurricane.
Quoting 285. DonnieBwkGA:

Are randrewl and vortfix the same person?
nah.

Quoting 291. BahaHurican:

It's better than absolutely nothing, though.... lol.... I'm watching to see if it'll make it all the way to Hawaii.

A couple of the GFS/ECMWF runs have hinted at it. Kind of like a Fausto redux, except hopefully without the abrupt dissipation this time around, lol.
I posted here this winter from Fargo. When we were getting hit with -20 and then wind chills from 40 plus mile per hour winds. It was cold! I have been told though, not as cold as in the 1887s when the low reached -48.

I say all that to say that we are having a polar vortex and our low tonight will be about 50 with a high about 70 and then Wednesday up to 74, then we get summer back with highs in the 80's for the weekend.

Not bad really. Not bad at all.

Cheers
Qazulight




Two different clouds over NP today.
ECMWF actually shows a landfall in the Big Island. 168 hours, notice the elongating vorticity lobe over the aforementioned.


Quoting 269. Chicklit:


Report says central Philippines. Hard to distinguish the island chain since I am not that familiar with it.

Top right 2nd row down under Pagasa Radar choose Virac.
Quoting 296. KoritheMan:

ECMWF actually shows a landfall in the Big Island. 168 hours, notice the elongating vorticity lobe over the aforementioned.



Genevieve better be a beautiful hurricane,so far Douglas, Elida and Fausto have been epic fail with Fausto being the worst of the three, and to be honest it makes me hard to believe that Ethel was a cat 5. I will need further evidence to be frank. Audrey was suppose to be a cat 4 and it was recently downgrade to a 3 if I am correct, the same may be done to Ethel.
Quoting BahaHurican:
This was the start of Portlight. If this blog has been good for nothing else, what we did collectively after Ike was enough to make it all worth the while. In some [many] ways it was our finest hour.
Sorry, accidental flag. PLUS was intended.
Quoting 293. KoritheMan:


A couple of the GFS/ECMWF runs have hinted at it. Kind of like a Fausto redux, except hopefully without the abrupt dissipation this time around, lol.


It appears that we have a race on our hands. Which will come first, formation into a tropical cyclone or 90E crossing 140W? I'd say, with current organizational trends, that this will become Genevieve before crossing into the Central Pacific portion of the basin.

Goodnight.
Quoting 300. TylerStanfield:


It appears that we have a race on our hands. Which will come first, formation into a tropical cyclone or 90E crossing 140W?
img style="max-width: 501px; width: 500px;" src="http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/90E/ imagery/ir_lalo-animated.gif">
What's the next name on the CPac's list?
Quoting 301. BahaHurican:

What's the next name on the CPac's list?

Wali.



Close enough.
B. TY 09W IS FORECAST TO TRACK ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRAJECTORY AS A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING IN FROM
MONGOLIA WEAKENS THE STEERING STR. THE TYPHOON IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL JUST NORTH OF SORSOGON, PHILIPPINES, IN SIX HOURS.
AFTERWARDS, AS THE SYSTEM DRAGS ACROSS SOUTHERN LUZON AND INTO
MANILA, IT WILL WEAKEN DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS BUT WILL RE-EMERGE
IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) OVER SUBIC BAY SHORTLY AFTER TAU 30 AS A
STRONG TROPICAL STORM. WARM SST IN THE SCS PLUS CONTINUED FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR RAPID RE-INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING
AT 90 KNOTS BY TAU 72. Sosorgon is on Luzon way down on the South East part of island.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I had him on ignore until today. For years.

And I... don't even remember why. Probably because I was still immature six years ago. :P

I have a bunch of people on ignore who showed up during hurricane season acting like jerks. Many of them have never been back...or at least as far as I know. :-)
B. TY 09W IS FORECAST TO TRACK ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRAJECTORY AS A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING IN FROM
MONGOLIA WEAKENS THE STEERING STR. THE TYPHOON IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL JUST NORTH OF SORSOGON, PHILIPPINES, IN SIX HOURS.
AFTERWARDS, AS THE SYSTEM DRAGS ACROSS SOUTHERN LUZON AND INTO
MANILA, IT WILL WEAKEN DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS BUT WILL RE-EMERGE
IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) OVER SUBIC BAY SHORTLY AFTER TAU 30 AS A
STRONG TROPICAL STORM. WARM SST IN THE SCS PLUS CONTINUED FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR RAPID RE-INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING
AT 90 KNOTS BY TAU 72. Sosorgon is on Luzon way down on the South East part of island, Just NW of Samar.



Just got a nice little downpour from one of these cells: now I don't have to water all the plants tomorrow morning! If I could live in a climate where it is like this most of the time I would. Very tropical.


307. FOREX
Quoting 306. opal92nwf:

Just got a nice little downpour from one of these cells: now I don't have to water all the plants tomorrow morning! If I could live in a climate where it is like this most of the time I would. Very tropical.





not a drop here in Panama city Beach.
Quoting 299. Barefootontherocks:

Sorry, accidental flag. PLUS was intended.




Here's a newish purple... off the Carolinas.
Quoting 306. opal92nwf:

Just got a nice little downpour from one of these cells: now I don't have to water all the plants tomorrow morning! If I could live in a climate where it is like this most of the time I would. Very tropical.





I wouldn't mind living in a tropical climate, as long as it was (very) wet tropical. The past 2 days have brought around an inch of rain at my house. While we are still well behind for the month so far, I have high hopes we can catch up if the current pattern continues.
Rammasun



Had some lightning here.. 0.57" rain.
For the purple off the Carolinas, not a lot of vorticity but perhaps the dropping cold from Canada will spin it like a top and generate?

I'll have to admit this was alarming. I even remember watching tv and they interrupted to show Ida with 105mph winds just entered the Gulf with a landfall as a Cat. 1 near Pcola. But at the same time I knew conditions would be far less accommodating than the Caribbean.

Link


Landfall somewhere in this area........Sosorgon City is 150,000 population.......hopefully the eye finds a sparsely populated area
Just came back from walk with Radar Dog. 82 degrees with a humidity of 79%. I have no idea why I was dumb enough to take a shower before I took the dog out. Now I'm all sweaty again.

We keep getting these strange little amoeba shaped showers popping up. Since they never get to me, I'm not sure if they're real or an extra dense patch of humidity. This has been happening all day and, whatever they are, they keep missing me by a couple of miles. There are some thunderstorms north of Birmingham, and BMX actually issued a flash flood warning for the Gadsden area. The chances of them getting this far south are pretty hopeless but you'd think with this much heat and humidity, we just have to get something. Of course, I've been thinking this for going on 16 days so I'm going to start wishing now. :-)




Hey Joe, Did you get any rain? I saw .01 reported for Palomar Mountain.
Quoting 315. PedleyCA:


Hey Joe, Did you get any rain? I saw .01 reported for Palomar Mountain.


I see 0.16 at Red Mountain.
Quoting 316. Astrometeor:



I see 0.16 at Red Mountain.


That and Yucca Valley weren't there when I posted it this afternoon. Just Stockton and Palomar 01. ea...
Quoting opal92nwf:
I'll have to admit this was alarming. I even remember watching tv and they interrupted to show Ida with 105mph winds just entered the Gulf with a landfall as a Cat. 1 near Pcola. But at the same time I knew conditions would be far less accommodating than the Caribbean.

Link

That chief meteorologist lady has incredibly long fingers.

Ida was a great storm for me. No real wind damage and a little nuisance flooding but we got a little over 5" of rain in one night, and we really needed it. It was too late to save the crops after yet another year of withering heat and drought but at least we went into winter with enough moisture in the ground that the farmers were able to plant and harvest their winter crops. It's one of the few landfalling US hurricanes I remember where the extratropical cyclone it created caused more destruction than the hurricane in the US.
Quoting Astrometeor:


I see 0.16 at Red Mountain.

Hey, it's his birthday. Don't correct him until after midnight. :-)
Quoting redwagon:
For the purple off the Carolinas, not a lot of vorticity but perhaps the dropping cold from Canada will spin it like a top and generate?


LOL. More wishcasting as we await the next storm. :-)
Quoting 317. PedleyCA:



That and Yucca Valley weren't there when I posted it this afternoon. Just Stockton and Palomar 01. ea...


Yup....and I got my 63 drops of rain.....at least it was cloudy at my place and very comfortable for most of the day. Hottest temp was at like 5pm at 86....was in 70's most of day. :)

Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA (SSSSD)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Mon, 14 Jul 8:59 pm (PDT)
Most Recent Observation: Mon, 14 Jul 8:50 pm PDT (PDT)
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
14 Jul 8:50 pm PDT 67 60 77 NW 6G10 OK
14 Jul 8:40 pm PDT 68 60 76 NW 7G12 OK
14 Jul 8:30 pm PDT 68 60 76 WNW 6G11 OK
14 Jul 8:20 pm PDT 69 60 73 NW 6G10 OK
14 Jul 8:10 pm PDT 71 60 67 WNW 3G07 OK
14 Jul 8:00 pm PDT 72 60 66 ENE 2G04 OK
14 Jul 7:50 pm PDT 72 60 65 E 2G04 OK
14 Jul 7:40 pm PDT 73 61 65 ESE 3G05 OK
14 Jul 7:30 pm PDT 73 60 64 ESE 4G07 OK
14 Jul 7:20 pm PDT 73 60 64 SE 5G08 OK
14 Jul 7:10 pm PDT 74 61 63 SE 6G09 OK
14 Jul 7:00 pm PDT 74 61 63 SE 5G08 OK
14 Jul 6:50 pm PDT 74 60 62 SE 4G07 OK
14 Jul 6:40 pm PDT 74 60 62 SE 4G07 OK
14 Jul 6:30 pm PDT 74 60 62 NNW 2G04 OK
14 Jul 6:20 pm PDT 74 59 60 NW 3G05 OK
14 Jul 6:10 pm PDT 75 60 60 E 2G04 OK
14 Jul 6:00 pm PDT 75 60 60 E 5G12 OK
14 Jul 5:50 pm PDT 76 61 59 E 7G12 OK
14 Jul 5:40 pm PDT 77 61 57 E 9G16 OK
14 Jul 5:30 pm PDT 79 60 53 ESE 7G12 OK
14 Jul 5:20 pm PDT 81 59 48 S 5G12 OK
14 Jul 5:10 pm PDT 82 60 47 SSW 10G17 OK
14 Jul 5:00 pm PDT 85 57 38 SSE 8G18 OK
14 Jul 4:50 pm PDT 85 54 35 SE 5G10 OK
14 Jul 4:40 pm PDT 86 54 34 SE 9G16 OK
14 Jul 4:30 pm PDT 86 55 35 SSE 8G16 OK
14 Jul 4:20 pm PDT 86 55 35 SSE 8G14 OK
14 Jul 4:10 pm PDT 85 54 35 SSE 9G15 OK
14 Jul 4:00 pm PDT 85 54 35 SE 10G16 OK
14 Jul 3:50 pm PDT 86 55 35 SSE 9G15 OK
14 Jul 3:40 pm PDT 86 56 36 SSE 8G15 OK
14 Jul 3:30 pm PDT 85 57 38 S 9G15 OK
14 Jul 3:20 pm PDT 85 57 39 SSW 8G16 OK
14 Jul 3:10 pm PDT 85 57 38 SSW 7G12 OK
14 Jul 3:00 pm PDT 85 57 38 S 5G10 OK
14 Jul 2:50 pm PDT 84 57 40 SE 3G07 OK
14 Jul 2:40 pm PDT 84 57 40 SE 5G10 OK
14 Jul 2:30 pm PDT 83 56 40 ENE 6G15 OK
14 Jul 2:20 pm PDT 84 58 41 SE 5G12 OK
14 Jul 2:10 pm PDT 83 58 42 ESE 4G09 OK
14 Jul 2:00 pm PDT 82 58 44 SE 6G12 OK
14 Jul 1:50 pm PDT 81 58 45 E 7G14 OK
14 Jul 1:40 pm PDT 80 58 47 E 6G10 OK
14 Jul 1:30 pm PDT 80 59 48 E 6G10 OK
14 Jul 1:20 pm PDT 79 59 50 ENE 5G10 OK
14 Jul 1:10 pm PDT 79 59 51 E 7G15 OK
14 Jul 1:00 pm PDT 79 59 51 E 8G14 OK
14 Jul 12:50 pm PDT 79 59 50 E 8G14 OK
14 Jul 12:40 pm PDT 79 58 49 E 11G19 OK
14 Jul 12:30 pm PDT 79 58 48 E 11G19 OK
14 Jul 12:20 pm PDT 79 58 48 E 10G17 OK
14 Jul 12:10 pm PDT 79 58 49 E 8G17 OK
14 Jul 12:00 pm PDT 79 59 50 ESE 9G18 OK
14 Jul 11:50 am PDT 79 59 50 E 8G17 OK
14 Jul 11:40 am PDT 79 59 50 ESE 7G14 OK
14 Jul 11:30 am PDT 79 59 50 E 8G15 OK
14 Jul 11:20 am PDT 79 58 49 E 9G16 OK
14 Jul 11:10 am PDT 79 58 49 E 9G18 OK
14 Jul 11:00 am PDT 79 59 50 E 9G14 OK
14 Jul 10:50 am PDT 79 59 50 E 8G14 OK
14 Jul 10:40 am PDT 79 57 47 E 9G15 OK
14 Jul 10:30 am PDT 80 56 44 ESE 6G13 OK
14 Jul 10:20 am PDT 80 57 45 SE 5G10 OK
14 Jul 10:10 am PDT 80 57 45 ESE 5G09 OK
14 Jul 10:00 am PDT 80 57 46 E 6G10 OK
14 Jul 9:50 am PDT 80 57 46 E 6G10 OK
14 Jul 9:40 am PDT 79 57 47 E 4G08 OK
14 Jul 9:30 am PDT 79 58 48 ESE 6G12 OK
14 Jul 9:20 am PDT 79 57 47 E 7G13 OK
14 Jul 9:10 am PDT 79 57 47 SE 5G11 OK
14 Jul 9:00 am PDT 79 57 47 ESE 4G08 OK
14 Jul 8:50 am PDT 78 57 49 SE 3G06 OK
14 Jul 8:40 am PDT 78 57 49 SE 3G06 OK
14 Jul 8:30 am PDT 77 59 53 ESE 3G07 OK
14 Jul 8:20 am PDT 77 58 52 ESE 4G07 OK
14 Jul 8:10 am PDT 78 57 49 SE 3G06 OK
14 Jul 8:00 am PDT 77 56 49 S 2G04 OK
14 Jul 7:50 am PDT 76 56 50 S 3G05 OK
14 Jul 7:40 am PDT 76 57 52 SSE 3G05 OK
14 Jul 7:30 am PDT 75 57 54 S 4G06 OK
14 Jul 7:20 am PDT 75 57 54 S 3G06 OK
14 Jul 7:10 am PDT 74 58 57 SSW 3G06
Quoting opal92nwf:
Just got a nice little downpour from one of these cells: now I don't have to water all the plants tomorrow morning! If I could live in a climate where it is like this most of the time I would. Very tropical.



Well...geez. Why can't those storms move about 75 miles north? I'm glad to hear you don't have to water though. I'm getting road rash on my arms from hauling the hose around every day. Anything that touches me gives me a bruise now.
Quoting 315. PedleyCA:


Hey Joe, Did you get any rain? I saw .01 reported for Palomar Mountain.


63 drops.....I counted.....LOL
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #8
TYPHOON GLENDA
11:00 AM PhST July 15 2014
====================

Typhoon "Glenda" has maintained its strength and pass very close to Catarman, Northern Samar

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Glenda [RAMMASUN] [976 hPa] located at 12.7N, 125.4E or 80 km east northeast of Catarman, Northern Samar has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 12 knots.

Signal Warning #3
-----------------

Luzon Region
===========
1. Catanduanes
2. Albay
3. Sorsogon
4. Camarines Sur
5. Camarines Norte
6. Masbate including Burias and Ticao Islands
7. Southern Quezon
8. Marinduque

Visayas region
============
1. Northern Samar
2 Northern part of Samar
3. Eastern Samar

Signal Warning #2
-----------------

Luzon Region
===========
1. Rest of Quezon including Polillo Islands
2. Batangas
3 .Laguna
4. Cavite
5. Rizal
6. Bulacan
7. Pampanga
8 .Bataan
9. Metro Manila

Visayas region
============
1. Biliran
2. rest of Samar
3. Eastern Samar
4. northern part of Leyte province

Signal Warning #1
-----------------

Luzon region
==========
1. Romblon
2. Oriental and Occidental Mindoro
3. Lubang Island
4. Zambales
5. Tarlac
6 Nueva Ecija
7. Pangasinan
8. Quirino
9. Nueva Vizcaya
10. Benguet
11. La Union
12. Aurora

Visayas region
============
1. Southern part of Leyte province
2. Camotes Islands

Additional Information
====================
Residents in low lying and mountainous areas under signal #3, #2 & #1 are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas under signal #3 and #2 are alerted against storm surges of up to three (3) meters.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 7.5–20 mm per hour (moderate - intense) within the 500 km diameter of the typhoon.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the Eastern seaboards of Luzon and of Visayas.

The public and the Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (DRRMC) concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
Hey, if you mix Sprite (regular or diet, I prefer diet) with 1/8 tsp Morton "Lite" Salt, 1/4 tsp regular table salt, all in one of those 1 quart capacity "Bubba" drinking coolers, with crushed ice (and seltzer if Sprite's too sweet for you) to the top, it's just like Gatorade Soda.

I figured this out when treating a Jersey bullcalf with transport-stress scours. He's doing fine now, but he and his herd brother (Rootie and Tootie) have been getting home-made electrolyte drink to keep hydrated until his system adjusts to the new environment.

And I figured, works for chicks, ducklings and now calves, why should I deprive myself of all the fun? Because you know, records of 105 and up the last couple days have been pretty hot. Right now we've got a hot dry edge of some storm cell that's going to turn its nose up at us. It's a much more pleasant 90something now, and my before bed treat is home-made pear/lime/nutmeg sauce over crushed ice, with a few half-thawed strawberries thrown in.

Edit: Now if someone would just rub my feet, life would be perfect.
has intensified a little more..

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #36
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON RAMMASUN (1409)
12:00 PM JST July 15 2014
==================================

Sea East Of The Philippines

At 3:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Rammasun (965 hPa) located at 12.8N 125.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 11 knots.

Storm Force Winds
===============
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
150 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Forecast and Intensity
==================
24 HRS: 14.5N 121.6E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Overland Luzon region (Philippines)
327. LBAR
82 degrees in my neck of the woods in central South Carolina at 12:08am Tuesday morning. I hope we get some rain soon!
90 E appears to be getting in giddyup mode....we shall see.

Typhoon Rammasun, looks like it took a wobble to the right to keep eye offshore.

I think Rammasun is quite a bit stronger than an 80kt typhoon right now.
Quoting 330. Ameister12:

I think Rammasun is quite a bit stronger than an 80kt typhoon right now.


It's a shame PAGASA still states this is only 65 knots.

2014JUL15 030100 4.8 962.2 3.5 84.8 4.8 4.8 6.6 MW ON OFF OFF -23.35 -77.04 EYE/P
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
I love when the oldies come back and pretend they still run the place.
Only one blogger comments in this blog and pretends to run the place, day after day. That blogger may have an old date attached to his/her handle but the handle was not an active participant in the 2005 community. The behind-the-scenes manipulators from those days no longer comment at wu. Maybe they lurk. I don't know. If you were not actively part of this place in 2005, you will not ever experience what those who were here in 2005 experienced. That doesn't mean anyone thinks you inferior because they were here first. The comment you made is uncalled for.
Typhoon Rammasun
Last Updated Jul 15, 2014 00 GMT
Location 12.8N 125.6E Movement W
Wind 90 MPH
Quoting 323. HurricaneHunterJoe:



63 drops.....I counted.....LOL


I didn't count but it Peppered the street good them promptly evaporated. It was very humid here and
I had to use my AC for the first time this year. They was a cell headed this way at about 6PM from over
by Hemet but it seems to have fallen apart. Have a Nice Night People, I am out of here.....
Lots of lightning and thunder from earlier. Saw a few bare cloud-to-cloud bolts. Good spell of heavy rain, too. Will check gauge tomorrow morning.



Edit: Night blog.
Laoang in for some winds. Here's MIMIC.
Quoting 329. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Typhoon Rammasun, looks like it took a wobble to the right to keep eye offshore.




One frame, the satellite seems to move angle & then correct or something.
Landfall or land brush?



Quoting 339. AussieStorm:

Landfall or land brush?





you have a link to that radar?
Because of the moon phase, the difference between daytime tides and nighttime tides are significant.
There is also a vast difference (almost 2 metres) between high and low tide during today.
High tide today was at 12:38PM resulting in big waves just before making landfall.

I took a video of the high tide some 300km south of the storm, and on the south west side of Leyte.
Here is the video Link from facebook
Although as Dr Jeff points out, this is not near on par with Yolanda, I would still think there would have been mini surges on the northern seaboard of Samar during that time. Some of that area is protected by Mangrove and there are evacuations, so we hope the casualties will be low. Manila will have widespread flooding as usual later.
Quoting 342. Caimito:

Because of the moon phase, the difference between daytime tides and nighttime tides are significant.
There is also a vast difference (almost 2 metres) between high and low tide during today.
High tide today was at 12:38PM resulting in big waves just before making landfall.

I took a video of the high tide some 300km south of the storm, and on the south west side of Leyte.
Here is the video Link from facebook
Although as Dr Jeff points out, this is not near on par with Yolanda, I would still think there would have been mini surges on the northern seaboard of Samar during that time. Some of that area is protected by Mangrove and there are evacuations, so we hope the casualties will be low. Manila will have widespread flooding as usual.


hope you make it through the storm ok. I remember you posting during Yolanda (Haiyan), thanks for the updates during that disaster of a storm.
Typhoon Rammasun now 100kts


1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 09W (RAMMASUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 236 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A
HIGH CONFIDENCE SATELLITE EYE FIX ON A CLEAR, 20 NM DIAMETER EYE NOW
EVIDENT IN THE MULTISPECTRAL AND 150609Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 100 KNOTS BASED ON CONSISTENT
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TY 09W REMAINS IN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 10
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND VIGOROUS POLEWARD AND WESTWARD
OUTFLOW. TY 09W IS CLOSING IN ON THE ISLAND OF SORSOGON, PHILIPPINES
AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
Quoting 339. AussieStorm:

Landfall or land brush?






I would say brush........just my 2 cents.
Typhoon Glenda sure is trying to stay over water.
My thoughts go out to those being affected by Typhoon Rammasun. We all know the last thing the Philippines need right now is another significant typhoon.


Land brush (Nothern Samar) followed by Landfall at Legazpi
Quoting 345. HurricaneHunterJoe:



I would say brush........just my 2 cents.
Quoting 347. Ameister12:

Once again, the southern Philippines has to deal with yet another significant typhoon. They can't seem to catch a break.



I believe that is more central/northern Philippines.
Quoting 343. nwobilderburg:



hope you make it through the storm ok. I remember you posting during Yolanda (Haiyan), thanks for the updates during that disaster of a storm.
Thank you nwobilderburg. Hope I never have to go through that again. The death, destruction and smell remains with me.
Quoting 349. allancalderini:

I believe that is more central/northern Philippines.

You're right. I tend to call any area of the Philippines south of Manila the "southern Philippines."
Quoting 351. Ameister12:


You're right. I tend to call any area of the Philippines south of Manila the "southern Philippines."

He he. Here in Southern Leyte (Central Philippines) everything South is South, Everything North of Samar is North. Western Visayas, Central Visayas and Eastern Visayas is Central Philippines.
Quoting 348. Caimito:

Land brush (Nothern Samar) followed by Landfall at Legazpi


Hope it goes north of Legazpi, there 180,000 population there. Santo Domingo to the north has 32,000 population. Glenda is tracking about 140 miles north of the track that beast of a Typhoon Haiyan took.
354. FOREX
Does anyone see some spin southwest of the Yucatan or am I in need of some sleep?
Quoting 116. Jedkins01:



As I said the other day, that is indeed a matter of personal preference. Because I don't find the summers here in FL to be too uncomfortable at all. I'll take 8-10 months of what we have right now over even a month of temps near the freezing mark, much less the multiple months that occur with winters up north.
Besides, we have astoundingly comfortable weather anytime outside of the summer. Although I really like the summer here. Once you get past the psychological part of the heat, summer is the best time of year. Lots of life due to lots of rain, and interesting weather.

Most people would agree with me as well, which is why Florida is such a popular vacation spot, not just with nationals, but also with international people.

Of course, there are some people that do indeed prefer cooler weather, and some do really hate hot weather, enough to endure cold long winters up north because they hate the heat here.

In my opinion, we only get small stretches where the heat is truly annoying, but most of the time, I don't think its too bad. Summer heat here is moderated dramatically by the oceans and common showers, thunderstorms and clouds. There are many places that have much worse summers in my opinion heat wise than Florida, i.e. just about every southern state.

Also, Fall, Spring, and winter in my opinion is so much better here than anywhere else in the U.S.

The only thing I don't like about Florida is the lack of mountains, everything else, I am so glad to have grown up living in.

Honestly, if I lived up north, I would be sacred to be seeing cool spells in July, they are going to have this week up north what is literally common highs and lows in this area in the middle of winter.
Interesting that you mention a lack of mountains in Florida. A lot of people, including maybe even some on this blog fully believe in the stereotyped image of Florida being absolutely table flat, from coast to coast or from the Georgia border south to the Keys and from the Atlantic Ocean west to the border with Alabama.

In fact, many people picture the interior of Florida being completely all flat and swampy, much like the Everglades. They picture the whole state as being flat as a pancake with impenetrable swamps. I used to envision Florida being that way, back before I moved here as a teenager and even after having visited relatives many times on vacation here. It was only after I moved here that I began to gradually discover that many areas of the state are surprisingly hilly and picturesque, in the form of rolling landscape with long-distance views in places.

The interior of the Florida Panhandle and much of the inland areas in Central and Northern Florida are blessed with more interesting topography and scenery than the close-in moss-draped swampland that one tends to visualize when thinking of non-urban areas of this state. But it stands to reason because for generations now, the rest of the world has seen Florida mostly in films, television productions and the like. And that means that Miami, the Everglades, various beach areas and perhaps a scene or two from the Disney theme parks represents the sum total of what outsiders see in video imagery of Florida. Oh yes, Cape Canaveral has also been shown countless times but that too fits the stereotype. And all of those places are indeed quite flat so it makes sense that after two or more generations of this that is what people think the whole of Florida is like.
Quoting 353. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Hope it goes north of Legazpi, there 180,000 population there. Santo Domingo to the north has 32,000 population. Glenda is tracking about 140 miles north of the track that beast of a Typhoon Haiyan took.
Looking at the latest from JTWC, the track is 10km north of Legazpi. Should have already reached there by now and moving on to Iriga City (8pm) and then near to Naga City shortly thereafter. Yes, that narrow stretch of South Luzon has a high population, and sea on both sides.
The Aussies ENSO update has the below headline.

El Nino remains on hold
358. beell
Not official by any means but always a good place to get a general idea where daily low minimum temp records may be broken. May see a rash of low maximum temp records fall later today also.



coolwx.com/records
Rammasun really deepened fast in the hours before landfall.



Look at that core upon landfall, very intense.



Dvorak estimates were in the solid 6.0 range (130-135mph) as it made landfall. The JTWC put it at 100kts/115mph, but it may have been considerably higher.
Quoting 359. MAweatherboy1:

Rammasun really deepened fast in the hours before landfall.



Look at that core upon landfall, very intense.



Dvorak estimates were in the solid 6.0 range (130-135mph) as it made landfall. The JTWC put it at 100kts/115mph, but it may have been considerably higher.
Yes indeed. There are mass evacuations along the coastlines. JTWC has landfall at 100 knots which is 185km/h and gusts well over 200km/h. Lucky it is low tide right now and the next high tide is only a little over 1 metre. The high tide this noon was 2 metres.
Quoting 360. Caimito:

Yes indeed. There are mass evacuations along the coastlines. JTWC has landfall at 100 knots which is 185km/h and gusts well over 200km/h. Lucky it is low tide right now and the next high tide is only a little over 1 metre. The high tide this noon was 2 metres.
That looks bad..I hope they were warned well in advance.
Quoting 347. Ameister12:

My thoughts go out to those being affected by Typhoon Rammasun. We all know the last thing the Philippines need right now is another significant typhoon.



That looks horrible.
Sharing some weather folklore from the Farmer's Almanac for today:
There is a very old Scottish weather proverb regarding rain on July 15:

St. Swithin’s Day if thou dost rain,
For forty days it will remain.

St. Swithin was a 9th-century bishop of Winchester, England, who requested that he be buried in a churchyard. About 100 years after his burial, however, it was deemed unseemly that so holy a man should rest in a common grave. On July 15, the saint’s feast day, the people attempted to enshrine his remains in his church. Legend has it, however, that St. Swithin caused torrential rains to fall for 40 days, until the intended transfer was abandoned.
It's been a stormy morning here at our house in S.E. Fort Myers.
Poor dog hasn't been able to go out for his morning walk.
Good Morning.  While not subject to development, SAL has backed-off a little bit along the Atlantic ITCZ and has allowed a few waves to keep their composure while crossing the Atlantic.  Good example of what happens going into August when the SAL lifts just above the 10N mark allowing some of the waves to form into tropical depressions during the crossing.  You will note from the image below that while NW Africa remains pretty dry at the moment, it is a little greener this week to the East of the Cape Verde islands:

 
On land now.
368. MahFL
Not good.

Discuss among yourselves.......................

El Niño remains on hold

Issued on Tuesday 15 July 2014 | 

Warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean over the past several months primed the climate system for an El Niño in 2014. However, a general lack of atmospheric response over the last month has resulted in some cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean.

While the majority of climate models suggest El Niño remains likely for the spring of 2014, most have eased their predicted strength. If an El Niño were to occur, it is increasingly unlikely to be a strong event.

Changes are also occurring in the Indian Ocean. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index has been below −0.4 °C (the negative IOD threshold) since mid-June, but it would need to remain negative into August to be considered as an event. Negative values are rare when the central Pacific is warmer than average. Model outlooks suggest the IOD is likely to return to neutral by spring. Conditions in the Indian Ocean may have contributed to the above-average rainfall experienced in southeast Australia during June.

El Niño is often associated with below-average rainfall over southern and eastern inland areas of Australia and above-average daytime temperatures over southern Australia. Conversely, a negative IOD pattern typically brings wetter winter and spring conditions to inland and southern Australia.

The ENSO Tracker is updated at the end of each month. It is currently at El Niño ALERT stage.

Prayers to these folks.
good Morning..something developing off of NC coast?





Quoting MahFL:


Eat crow ! July El Nino forecasters !


I believe the past few months have gone something like this from blog members.

Super El Nino!!!!
to
Strong El Nino!!
to
Moderate to Strong El Nino!
to
Moderate El Nino??
to
Weak to Moderate El Nino?

Rammasun is a perfect example of a forecaster's nightmare; a sudden deepening/intensification just prior to landfall on a populated area. 
Quoting 373. Sfloridacat5:



I believe the past few months have gone something like this from blog members.

Super El Nino!!!!
to
Strong El Nino!!
to
Moderate to Strong El Nino!
to
Moderate El Nino??
to
Weak to Moderate El Nino?






so freaking what give it a rest all ready no one can be 100% right all the time on ever thing
reports of warmer than normal water temps. indian ocean , s. africa if its going to be el nino its a odd one
andrew did that rapid intensification just before landfall
Quoting Tazmanian:




so freaking what give it a rest all ready no one can be 100% right all the time on ever thing


It's just science.
Don't get upset over comments about El Nino (its really meant in fun).

Even the top climate scientists in the world don't know what's going to happen.

And I do feel we should see El Nino conditions a little further down the road.

Predictions/forecasts are just that. If we knew everything we wouldn't need them.

I would never discourage anyone from asking questions and making predictions.
Quoting 377. islander101010:

andrew did that rapid intensification just before landfall
it was intensifying 10 miles inland.
Quoting 376. islander101010:

reports of warmer than normal water temps. indian ocean , s. africa if its going to be el nino its a odd one
Good morning Islander. I have a theory about whats happening with the latest Pacific temp trends, just havnt had time to post it.
A drop in shear between the Bahamas and Florida combined with an SST boost from the Gulf Stream helped Andrew intensify just before landfall.
andrew was like a giant tornado next big one? i think they are more likely to get a bigger storm but not as intense as andrew, andrew was a freak and climatology supports that.
Quoting 383. islander101010:

andrew was like a giant tornado good luck s fl. when that happens again
Andrew was hideous. I remember that night well.
Quoting 359. MAweatherboy1:

Rammasun really deepened fast in the hours before landfall.



Look at that core upon landfall, very intense.



Dvorak estimates were in the solid 6.0 range (130-135mph) as it made landfall. The JTWC put it at 100kts/115mph, but it may have been considerably higher.


Looks more like a 120-130 knot typhoon rather than a 100 knot.
The El Nino/Enso forecast is what it is; no need to sweat about it as nature runs it's course.  It might mean 1-2 more Atlantic storms at the back end of the season but worldwide, a weak to moderate El Nino is better than a stronger one that wrecks havoc in different parts of the world in terms of agriculture and harsher winters or summers depending on the regional impacts. 
Moderators?
so many busts for that potential El Nino..

the next headline will read just like 2012..again..
Quoting hydrus:
Andrew was hideous. I remember that night well.


There's still a lot of debate over Andrew's top winds. From what I understand, most of the locations that received the highest wind speeds lost the use of their instruments (anemometers) during the peak of the storm.

Andrew was also on my birthday (Aug. 24th) so I never forget the date.

50,s in the deep south.
Street flooding within minutes in front of our house in the Gateway area of Fort Myers.
Rain rate of 15.16" per hour at the moment.

Quoting 391. Sfloridacat5:



There's still a lot of debate over Andrew's top winds. From what I understand, most of the locations that received the highest wind speeds lost the use of their instruments (anemometers) during the peak of the storm.

Andrew was also on my birthday (Aug. 24th) so I never forget the date.


Lotsa debate, and for good reason..Excerpt Wiki..

Tides were generally between only 4 to 6 feet (1.2 to 1.8 m) above normal in the Biscayne Bay area, though near the Burger King International Headquarters, tides reached as high as 16.9 feet (5.2 m) above normal. Storm surge on the west coast was widespread, but mostly light, with a peak height of 6 feet (1.8 m), measured at both Everglades City and Goodland. The storm surge was reported as far north as Homosassa. Strong winds from the storm were confined to a relatively small area, stretching from Key Largo to about Miami Beach. A house in Perrine initially reported a wind gust of 212 mph (341 km/h); this measurement was reduced to 177 mph (285 km/h), after a wind-tunnel testing at Clemson University of the same type of anemometer revealed a 16.5% error. At some locations, the instruments measuring wind speeds failed before the highest winds occurred. At the National Hurricane Center, sustained winds of 115 mph (185 km/h) and gusts to 164 mph (264 km/h) were measured before the anemometer failed. The highest sustained wind speed in relation to the storm was 146 mph (235 km/h), recorded at the Turkey Point Nuclear Generating Station, before instruments failed there, too. In Key Largo, a 13-minute wind speed of 114 mph (183 km/h) was reported. Tropical storm force winds reached as far north as West Palm Beach. On the west coast of Florida, sustained winds did not exceed 39 mph (63 km/h) at Marco Island, though a wind gust of 100 mph (160 km/h) was reported in Collier County. Rainfall was generally light, possibly as a result of the storm's relatively fast movement. Overall, precipitation from Andrew peaked at nearly 14 inches (360 mm) in western Miami-Dade County. Heavy rainfall in other areas was sporadic, with precipitation reported as far north as Central Florida.
Quoting 372. ncstorm:
good Morning..something developing off of NC coast?







that is the tiniest purple dot I've ever seen.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila

...Probably safe to say we won't see development for the rest of this month. Shear rules the Caribbean and SAL rules the MDR, plus it's pretty early to be looking out there anyways. If there is development it would probably come from something of non-tropical origin off the East Coast, but there's not a high chance of that happening.
Quoting 393. Sfloridacat5:

Street flooding within minutes in front of our house in the Gateway area of Fort Myers.
Rain rate of 15.16" per hour at the moment.


Hopefully we can get word from people who were in the path of Rammasun. I hope it was not as bad as it looked.


its moving back up!!
Quoting 383. islander101010:

andrew was like a giant tornado next big one? i think they are more likely to get a bigger storm but not as intense as andrew, andrew was a freak and climatology supports that.


Naranja Lakes.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila

...Probably safe to say we won't see development for the rest of this month. Shear rules the Caribbean and SAL rules the MDR, plus it's pretty early to be looking out there anyways. If there is development it would probably come from something of non-tropical origin off the East Coast, but there's not a high chance of that happening.


I agree with that sentiment, especially for a storm with a tropical origin.
Rain has backed off to a light steady rain but not after putting down 2.19" of rain. Not bad for an early morning T storm (S.E. Fort Myers area).
Almost 22 years has gone by.

406. DDR
Good morning
Some good itcz action in some of Trinidad,probably 1.3 inches in the guage and still falling.
Cold air cometh.

More storms moving through the area. Thunder is rumbling again. Very unstable environment this morning across the westcoast.
Quoting 395. Brock31:



that is the tiniest purple dot I've ever seen.


it changed about 20 minutes after I posted..it was much bigger than what was showing earlier..

thanks..


nice looking eye on this Typhoon

James Spann ‏@spann

Hettinger, North Dakota reports 39 degrees at 6a CT. And yes, this is the middle of July… #ndwx
Quoting 396. MAweatherboy1:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila

...Probably safe to say we won't see development for the rest of this month. Shear rules the Caribbean and SAL rules the MDR, plus it's pretty early to be looking out there anyways. If there is development it would probably come from something of non-tropical origin off the East Coast, but there's not a high chance of that happening.





And look at the rare July COLD front that is moving southward! It will reach the Gulf Coast very soon. They are talking about record low temps in the SE USA this week?! Still looks like the beginning of a possible weak El Nino, no matter what they say, even if it occurs later in the year.

We should not let our guard down, when it comes to getting a major hurricane strike. Betsy, Alicia, Andrew ... all happened during slower or El Nino years.....

Anything is possible. As some of you have already mentioned, Ida (2009) was a strong November hurricane in the GOM, during an El Nino year. An interesting, but rare late-season hurricane!
413. MahFL
Building codes were stenghened after Hurricane Andrew, weren't they ? So even with a similar storm, outside the eyewall you'd not see as much total devastation these days.
I am sure that Dr. M is taking his time this morning collecting any available information and stats on the Typhoon so that he can give us some insight as to the severity of the impacts. Looking forward to his Blog.

got the ruler out manilla going to get this one bad
Typhoon Rammasun
Last Updated Jul 15, 2014 06 GMT
Location 13.0N 124.7E Movement WNW
Wind 115 MPH
Quoting 405. hydrus:

Almost 22 years has gone by.




Hopefully, Andrew didn't have children that are coming to visit...
Andrew was not in a el nino year if I re call
2.65" so far this morning at my location in S.E. Fort Myers and more storms are moving into the area.
Quoting 419. Tazmanian:

Andrew was not in a el nino year if I re call


Pretty sure it was Taz.
I just know where to begin with this. Nothing like a physicist explaining weather. Maybe this means I can be a surgeon with no education and go operate on someone. First Bill Nye, now this alarmist. SMH !!

Link
51.2 degrees recorded for the low on my temperature gauge this morning here in Central Illinois ..
highs today are near what our normal lows would be here the middle of July !!
424. jpsb
El Niño remains on hold

Issued on Tuesday 15 July 2014 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00

Warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean over the past several months primed the climate system for an El Niño in 2014. However, a general lack of atmospheric response over the last month has resulted in some cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean.

While the majority of climate models suggest El Niño remains likely for the spring of 2014, most have eased their predicted strength. If an El Niño were to occur, it is increasingly unlikely to be a strong event.

Changes are also occurring in the Indian Ocean. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index has been below −0.4 °C (the negative IOD threshold) since mid-June, but it would need to remain negative into August to be considered as an event. Negative values are rare when the central Pacific is warmer than average. Model outlooks suggest the IOD is likely to return to neutral by spring. Conditions in the Indian Ocean may have contributed to the above-average rainfall experienced in southeast Australia during June.

El Niño is often associated with below-average rainfall over southern and eastern inland areas of Australia and above-average daytime temperatures over southern Australia. Conversely, a negative IOD pattern typically brings wetter winter and spring conditions to inland and southern Australia.

The ENSO Tracker is updated at the end of each month. It is currently at El Niño ALERT stage.


http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/


425. MahFL
Quoting 419. Tazmanian:

Andrew was not in a el nino year if I re call


It was an El Nino year, but the event was over. Hence the confusion.

"Although an El Niño formed in 1992, the year Hurricane Andrew struck Miami-Dade County, the weather pattern had dissipated before the Category 5 system hit, Lushine said."

426. silas
Dang, Rammasun really intensified overnight, but thankfully it didn't have another 12 hours over water or it may have made a run at Super Typhoon status. Hopefully it moves through the Philippines quickly so flooding isn't too big of a problem.

427. silas

Quoting whitewabit:
51.2 degrees recorded for the low on my temperature gauge this morning here in Central Illinois ..
highs today are near what our normal lows would be here the middle of July !!
I never thought I'd have to consider wearing a jacket during the day IN JULY here in southern Wisconsin! Still just 58 degrees here at 9:20!
Quoting Stormwatch247:





And look at the rare July COLD front that is moving southward! It will reach the Gulf Coast very soon. They are talking about record low temps in the SE USA this week?! Still looks like the beginning of a possible weak El Nino, no matter what they say, even if it occurs later in the year.

We should not let our guard down, when it comes to getting a major hurricane strike. Betsy, Alicia, Andrew ... all happened during slower or El Nino years.....

Anything is possible. As some of you have already mentioned, Ida (2009) was a strong November hurricane in the GOM, during an El Nino year. An interesting, but rare late-season hurricane!


Cold fronts get to the Gulf Coast most Julys but are little more than weak windshift lines by the time they get there. Some years a real, can't deny it cold front does cross the Gulf Coast and drying and slight cooling is noticable. Cold fronts make it to the upper south most summers several times a month.

This cool outbreak in 2014 will set a few records but has a lot of precedents, in particular July 1975. Weather watchers need to remember that "rare" is not the same as either "unique" or "never"
Quoting 418. Dakster:



Hopefully, Andrew didn't have children that are coming to visit...
I know one thing, Nino is not goin to be here in time to quash storms at the peak of hurricane season. I went low on my prediction due to the arrival of at least a weak Nino.
Quoting silas:

I never thought I'd have to consider wearing a jacket during the day IN JULY here in southern Wisconsin! Still just 58 degrees here at 9:20!


Meanwhile in DC water is condensing on my OUTSIDE windows.
But we will get this cool shot with highs in the low 80s and lows in the low 60s (50s further out in the 'burbs"

Save the summer jacket. You'll eventually need it again for another outbreak.
Quoting silas:

I never thought I'd have to consider wearing a jacket during the day IN JULY here in southern Wisconsin! Still just 58 degrees here at 9:20!

You can send any leftovers you don't want down this way. It's 85 with a dewpoint of 76...and I still don't have any rain!
432. silas

Quoting georgevandenberghe:


Meanwhile in DC water is condensing on my OUTSIDE windows.
But we will get this cool shot with highs in the low 80s and lows in the low 60s (50s further out in the 'burbs"

Save the summer jacket. You'll eventually need it again for another outbreak.
You call low 80s cool? We've only gotten that high a few times this summer!

I don't think my jacket will still fit me 5-10+ years from now =)
433. silas

Quoting sar2401:

You can send any leftovers you don't want down this way. It's 85 with a dewpoint of 76...and I still don't have any rain!
No thanks, I'm happy with 60s!

Andrew
435. MahFL
Rammasun's eye is pretty big, the whole of Manilla might experience the eye wall. Also on the current track the eye might go back over water for an hour or two before it passes over/near Manilla.
Quoting 413. MahFL:
Building codes were stenghened after Hurricane Andrew, weren't they ? So even with a similar storm, outside the eyewall you'd not see as much total devastation these days.

Even with the new building codes, we sustained a lot of damage during Francis, Jeanne and Wilma in S Florida. I shudder to think what the damage would be if a Cat 5 hit here.
437. MahFL
86F forecast for tomorrow here in Orange Park. Any day in July below 90 is nice.
Quoting Chucktown:
I just know where to begin with this. Nothing like a physicist explaining weather. Maybe this means I can be a surgeon with no education and go operate on someone. First Bill Nye, now this alarmist. SMH !!

Link

That was not the most coherent explanation of a cold front I've ever seen. However, the media just loves the "polar vortex" and they're not going to let it die. Any temperatures below normal will be caused by a "polar vortex" just like they always have been except we didn't call it a "polar vortex". Cold front just doesn't sound very ominous.
.
440. MahFL
"NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL
ALSO BE A BIG CHANGE WITH EVEN SOME RECORD LOWS POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 60S."

Lucky GA.
Quoting MahFL:
86F forecast for tomorrow here in Orange Park. Any day in July below 90 is nice.

The forecast high here is 89. Why is going to be cooler down there? Still, since we've been in the upper 90's to 100 for the past 10 days, even 89 will be a break.
Quoting 423. whitewabit:

51.2 degrees recorded for the low on my temperature gauge this morning here in Central Illinois ..
highs today are near what our normal lows would be here the middle of July !!


What is "normal", that is, what period was used to compute your data. Does your data set include 1816, the Year Without A Summer?

Both China and India have dramatically increased their burning of coal, resulting in large increases in emissions of both sulfur dioxide and carbon soot. The resulting "Human Volcano" is likely to be offsetting some of the warming from humanity's emissions of CO2. That is to say, the steady emissions may be having an combined impact no different than that of single, large volcanic eruptions which can boost sulfate into the stratosphere, where it is slowly removed over a period of years.
Probably the most humid and tropical airmass I've experienced thus far this year.
Quoting 422. Chucktown:

I just know where to begin with this. Nothing like a physicist explaining weather. Maybe this means I can be a surgeon with no education and go operate on someone. First Bill Nye, now this alarmist. SMH !!

Link


You must be one of those climate optimists! Link
Quoting 403. CybrTeddy:



I agree with that sentiment, especially for a storm with a tropical origin.

I'd tend to agree that there is a low probability that we will see tropical cyclone of tropical origin in the Atlantic before the month is over. Though, I do see the potential for perhaps a quick spin up over the next 15 days. The GFS and GEM foresee a trough split to occur off the coast of North Carolina and head up the coast in about 7 to 8 days. The models are beginning to hint at a more favorable environment coupled with more potent tropical waves will allow for us to begin to see more areas of interest and the potential for the formation of a storm as we get into August.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
448. MahFL
Quoting 438. sar2401:


.. However, the media just loves the "polar vortex" ...

Actually JAX NWS is using the term...
"THIS EVENING IS WHEN IT GETS MORE INTERESTING AS THE...WELL
ADVERTISED POLAR VORTEX...DROPS SOUTHWARD IT IS PUSHING A PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE SUMMERTIME COLD FRONT AHEAD OF IT."
The new 15z JTWC warning upped Rammasun's winds to 110kts. I wonder what they think the peak was then, it certainly isn't at peak intensity now because of land disruption.



They also forecast it to get even stronger in the South China Sea, up to 120kts, before its second landfall. We'll have to see how badly the land interaction now ends up hurting it. If it makes out alright, and so far it is, that could certainly be attainable.
Quoting 438. sar2401:

That was not the most coherent explanation of a cold front I've ever seen. However, the media just loves the "polar vortex" and they're not going to let it die. Any temperatures below normal will be caused by a "polar vortex" just like they always have been except we didn't call it a "polar vortex". Cold front just doesn't sound very ominous.


I just don't agree with CBS paying a physicist to explain the weather. With all the meteorologists available that work for their network and affiliates, why would you do that. Last time I checked, Bri Wi always goes to TWC for any weather explanation or forecast. NBC of course owns TWC, so why wouldn't you use your own trusted sources. On top of that, Dr. Kaku is dead wrong about the reasoning for the cool air, and no it's not like a tornado.
waiting to see what happens here. polar vortex vrs. 90+ c. florida heat.
Quoting 366. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning.  While not subject to development, SAL has backed-off a little bit along the Atlantic ITCZ and has allowed a few waves to keep their composure while crossing the Atlantic.  Good example of what happens going into August when the SAL lifts just above the 10N mark allowing some of the waves to form into tropical depressions during the crossing.  You will note from the image below that while NW Africa remains pretty dry at the moment, it is a little greener this week to the East of the Cape Verde islands:

 


I've noticed a few more clouds / showers over the Saharan the past few days, perhaps this has weakened the SAL. I'm not too read up on the correlation between SAL and N. Saharan precipitation.
453. jpsb
Quoting 428. georgevandenberghe:



Cold fronts get to the Gulf Coast most Julys but are little more than weak windshift lines by the time they get there. Some years a real, can't deny it cold front does cross the Gulf Coast and drying and slight cooling is noticable. Cold fronts make it to the upper south most summers several times a month.

This cool outbreak in 2014 will set a few records but has a lot of precedents, in particular July 1975. Weather watchers need to remember that "rare" is not the same as either "unique" or "never"


I thought this an interesting topic so I researched and found this

A ten year study counted 9 cold fronts reaching the GoM in July. So I say you are correct in saying it is not "rare". Hoping this one reaches me on the Texas Gulf Coast.
Quoting EricGreen:


What is "normal", that is, what period was used to compute your data. Does your data set include 1816, the Year Without A Summer?

Both China and India have dramatically increased their burning of coal, resulting in large increases in emissions of both sulfur dioxide and carbon soot. The resulting "Human Volcano" is likely to be offsetting some of the warming from humanity's emissions of CO2. That is to say, the steady emissions may be having an combined impact no different than that of single, large volcanic eruptions which can boost sulfate into the stratosphere, where it is slowly removed over a period of years.


Although 1816 was called the year without a summer growing conditions were okay MOST of the time. What made it so bad was markedly stronger than normal cold outbreaks intespersed with longer periods of typical summer weather. The cold outbreaks caused freezes in extensive areas that normally grew crops. The cold outbreaks caused summer temperatures to average well below normal but not so cold
that summer crops could not get sufficient growing degree day accumulations in the extensive regions that did not quite freeze. Southeast Canada, near Quebec as well as much of New England reported good crop prospects until an early and abnormally severe frost in September, a continuation of the abnormally severe cold outbreaks, wiped out large areas that had survived the summer. To get to that point though required a summer without frost.

A similar but less severe analog occurred in 1992.


The difference between human emissions and volcanic eruptions is that sulfates from the former don't reach the stratosphere and there remain with a half life of about a year. The human volcano hypothesis was examined in the 70s and did have some merit but has been overwhelmed by greenhouse gas releases since, combined with a reduction in particulate emissions by first world countries.
Blog for our Florida weather........................................... ...................................Link
Amazingly intact system..
Quoting 449. MAweatherboy1:

The new 15z JTWC warning upped Rammasun's winds to 110kts. I wonder what they think the peak was then, it certainly isn't at peak intensity now because of land disruption.



They also forecast it to get even stronger in the South China Sea, up to 120kts, before its second landfall. We'll have to see how badly the land interaction now ends up hurting it. If it makes out alright, and so far it is, that could certainly be attainable.
Rammasun did not really pick up until close to southern Luzon, being fed by the higher water temperatures. The landmass there did not slow it down at first, probably because it is not much of a landmass. The peninsula of southern Luzon is very narrow, and it was not until it met the landmass further into the island that it slowed more significantly.
It moved across Luzon fairly quickly, holding on to a lot of it's strength going back out to sea to start building again. It is expected to go back to at least CAT 3 before making second landfall at Hainan, China on Friday morning.
At this time there are 5 fatalities. Although this may increase, the evacuation of 76,000 families certainly contributed to this low number