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Tropical Storm Neoguri Hits Japan; NOAA Holds Summer El Niño Odds at 70%

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:50 PM GMT on July 10, 2014

Tropical Storm Neoguri made landfall near the city of Akune in southwest Japan's Kagoshima Prefecture on the island of Kyushu just before 7 a.m. Japanese time Thursday (6 p.m. Wednesday Eastern time in the U.S.). Once a mighty super typhoon with 155 mph winds, the Japan Meteorological Agency estimated that Neoguri weakened to maximum 10-minute sustained winds of 60 mph at landfall (equivalent to maximum winds of about 65 to 70 mph using the U.S. 1-minute sustained wind standard.) Neoguri will track along the east coast of Japan on Thursday, and Japan Meteorological Agency radar showed very heavy rains in excess of one inch (25.4 mm) per hour were affecting portions of the country this morning. On Kyushu, Ebino reported 13.20 inches (335.5 mm) of rain in the 24 hours ending at 8 a.m. Japanese time Thursday, and a 72-hour rainfall total of 398 mm (15.67 inches) was recorded at Ushibuka. Public broadcaster NHK said parts of central Japan, including Nagoya, could see up to 16 inches (400 mm) of rain by Friday morning. Neoguri killed two people and injured 32 in Japan's Ryukyu Islands, which include Okinawa. The islands may have another typhoon to worry about next week--recent runs of the GFS model have been predicting that tropical disturbance 92W will develop into a tropical cyclone and potentially affect the Ryukyu Islands by the middle of next week.


Figure 1. A wooden house collapsed during strong winds in Naha on Japan's southern island of Okinawa on July 8, 2014. (Jiji Press/AFP/Getty Images)

NOAA Holds El Niño Odds at 70% for this Summer
NOAA's monthly El Niño discussion, issued on Thursday July 10, maintains an El Niño watch, and continues to project a 70% chance of El Niño forming this summer, and an 80% chance by fall. The forecasters anticipate El Niño will peak at weak-to-moderate strength during the late fall and early winter, with 3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index between 0.5°C and 1.4°C. The Niño-3.4 index is a measure of the departure from average of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) along the Equator in the Pacific between 120°W - 170°W, 5°N - 5°S. SSTs in this region have been hovering near the threshold for El Niño, +0.5°C from average, from late April through mid-July. However, the atmosphere has not been behaving like it should during an El Niño event. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)--the difference in surface pressure between Darwin, Australia and the island of Tahiti--tends to drop to negative values during the presence of an El Niño atmosphere. The SOI has been trending downwards the past 50 days, but was still positive in June. Heavy thunderstorm activity over Indonesia and near the International Date Line is typically enhanced during an El Niño event, and has been picking up over the past month, but must increase more before we can say the atmosphere is responding in an El Niño-like fashion.


Figure 2. Forecasts of the departure of SST from average along the Equator in the Pacific between 120°W - 170°W, 5°N - 5°S as made by computer models that forecast ENSO (the El Niño/Southern Oscillation.) Forecasts above the thick red line indicate an El Niño event; forecasts below the thick blue line are for a La Niña event; forecasts between the red and blue line are for neutral conditions. None of the models are predicting La Niña, and about 2/3 are predicting El Niño. Image credit: IRI/NOAA.

Quiet in the Atlantic
None of the reliable models for predicting genesis of Atlantic tropical cyclones is predicting development over the next five days, and there are no threat areas to discuss. The tropical Atlantic is dominated by dry air and high wind shear, and SSTs are 0.3°C below average in the Hurricane Main Development region between the coast of Africa and Central America, between 10°N - 20°N. If we get another tropical storm this month, the most likely area for formation would be off the Southeast U.S. coast or in the Gulf of Mexico.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I'm back from my seasonal hiatus!

TCFA has been declared on 92W.


JMA has already labelled it as a TD, as per this weather map.
thanx doc......japan dodged a bullet this time
Thank you for the informative update Dr. Masters.
I just saw some pictures of the damage caused by the storm over Japan, mainly flood damage by the looks of it, suspended railway lines where bridges have washed away from under them and vast amounts of water with mud all over the place.
Seems that about half the area of Japan is going to get a massive soaking over the next few hours as the storm moves from one end to the other of the islands chain.
Super hot here in southern Europe, with temps in the upper 30s to 40/C.

We are becoming gravely concerned about the drought potential for California, a lot of the crops must have failed due to the lack of rain by now in the whole region.
If the El Nino is not going to transpire soon then its time for some serious water rationing, possibly emergency conditions for a long time.
Thank you Dr Masters

A nice cool early morning in Sooo Cal

Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA (SSSSD)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Thu, 10 Jul 7:14 am (PDT)
Most Recent Observation: Thu, 10 Jul 7:00 am PDT (PDT)
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
10 Jul 7:00 am PDT 65 41 41 ESE 1G03 OK

Moderate drought has been declared for parts of PR.

In Puerto Rico, deteriorating conditions warranted the expansion of abnormal dryness, and the introduction of moderate drought (D1) in south-central and northeast Puerto Rico. This is based on low stream flows, and the 60-, 30-, and 14-day DNPs and PNPs. Drought is not an issue at this time in Alaska.



Link

Link

Thanks Doc !
East Pacific looks somewhat blobby?

I really think between the shear, cooler water temps, el nino, SAL (looks really bad with hardly any moisture over Africa where not going to see much of a hurricane season. This is just my little opinion.

Sheri
Quoting 5. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Thank you Dr Masters

A nice cool early morning in Sooo Cal

Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA (SSSSD)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Thu, 10 Jul 7:14 am (PDT)
Most Recent Observation: Thu, 10 Jul 7:00 am PDT (PDT)
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
10 Jul 7:00 am PDT 65 41 41 ESE 1G03 OK




You guys must be praying for ELNINO

11. jpsb
I am getting a complex, every time I post a long thoughtful comment I see yellow. LOL, Ok now off to read the Doc entry, 70% seems high to me but I look forward to what the Doc has to say.
Quoting 2. MoltenIce:

I'm back from my seasonal hiatus!

TCFA has been declared on 92W.


JMA has already labelled it as a TD, as per this weather map.



09W NINE 140710 0600 9.9N 151.7E WPAC 20 1006
Quoting 10. VR46L:


You guys must be praying for ELNINO



We've definitely been hoping for it. Whether or not ENSO actually cooperates is another story.
Everyone was awaiting the latest from NOAA. Thanks for putting in one paragraph what would be 40 pages of reading.
waiting to hear the news from japan heavy rain event might take a couple days to sort out the damage
Thanks Dr. Masters!
Thanks Jeff...
Quoting jpsb:
I am getting a complex, every time I post a long thoughtful comment I see yellow. LOL, Ok now off to read the Doc entry, 70% seems high to me but I look forward to what the Doc has to say.


This happens to me too :-)

el nino is DOA.
more like el nino is late to lunch
Good morning everyone. A little less thunder this morning, but a nice cell building over us now. This rain every morning in the summertime is just so out of the ordinary. This will be five days in a row now. Although it's been raining quite often here on the southwest coast, the rains haven't been adding up to much. The cells are lacking the intensity and coverage they would in typical afternoon thunderstorms. Hopefully we can break this pattern, but it doesn't look like it's going to be backing down too soon.



Also this morning, very surprised to see this isn't even an invest yet. Thought the same when I went to bed... Looks like a td or minimal ts imo.

23. jpsb
now jr....i'm sure that no one...scientist or blogger....would have trumped a strong event...seeing that the time models were showing this was during the spring barrier period...why...that would border on being irresponsible.

El Niño Is Here - Slate
Is A Super El Niño Coming That Will Shatter Extreme Weather thinkprogress
A super El Niño on the way? Subtle signs emerging washington post
El Nino is coming: Epic event ahead? - The Weather Network
Are we heading for a worrying Super El Niño? The Conversation
Cliff Mass Weather Blog: Is a Super El Nino Coming Next ...
Super El Niño Impends | Planet3.0
Is A Super El Nino On The Way? | The Global Warming Policy Foundation
Is a Powerful El Niño Brewing in the Pacific Ocean? Skeptical Science

Lots more if you google super el nino. I'm not really being critical, Scary highlines sells news stories so scary titles are to be expected. But certainly the media was hyping, if not predicting a 98/99 type El Nino.




Currently a westerly flow regime has dominated the Florida Peninsula, with this type of flow the Western side of Florida will typically see morning based convection while the East Coast will see the more robust downpours. Regarding the intensity you are referring to, morning convection often lacks intensity because instability is always lacking in the morning and you need much higher CAPE values that can't simply be provided in the morning. That's why morning convection in Florida is short-lived, and often not as intense. So really it's not quite out of the ordinary. Until the typical easterly flow regime for Florida Peninsula can re-establish itself you will see less intense storms and typically in the morning.


Quoting 22. GatorWX:

Good morning everyone. A little less thunder this morning, but a nice cell building over us now. This rain every morning in the summertime is just so out of the ordinary. This will be five days in a row now. Although it's been raining quite often here on the southwest coast, the rains haven't been adding up to much. The cells are lacking the intensity and coverage they would in typical afternoon thunderstorms. Hopefully we can break this pattern, but it doesn't look like it's going to be backing down too soon.



Also this morning, very surprised to see this isn't even an invest yet. Thought the same when I went to bed... Looks like a td or minimal ts imo.



Everyone was awaiting the latest from NOAA. Thanks for putting in one paragraph what would be 40 pages of reading.


LOL.......groth..only 6 pages long...you could have read it and not have had to nap in between
Lots more if you google super el nino. I'm not really being critical, Scary highlines sells news stories so scary titles are to be expected. But certainly the media was hyping, if not predicting a 98/99 type El Nino.


that's the point...the media was....bloggers were...and so were some scientists
Getting to do some amazing oceanic modeling research at MIT (very similar to wx, even uses some of the same tools), so I've been out of the wx loop.
Anything interesting in the models?
Quoting 27. GeorgiaStormz:

Getting to do some amazing oceanic research at MIT, so I've been out of the wx loop.
Anything interesting in the models?

Not really, Basically we have lots of shear, dry-dusty air, and not many waves worth your time. GFS Ensembles hint at dropping shear in the C. Atl at 200 hours but it is so far out that it can't be trusted, not to mention shear won't matter if we have a big influence of the SAL at that time. I should also add that at that time, MSLP Normalized Anomalies will be very high, so I would except nothing to develop at the time when shear drops. SST's aren't very conducive to development in the C Atl, but the Gulf and extreme W. Caribbean is quite warm right now so that's where eyes should be looking for at least the next 2 weeks.

There is your quick summary :)
29. jpsb
Quoting 26. ricderr:

Lots more if you google super el nino. I'm not really being critical, Scary highlines sells news stories so scary titles are to be expected. But certainly the media was hyping, if not predicting a 98/99 type El Nino.


that's the point...the media was....bloggers were...and so were some scientists


Well your point was right on, I was just backing it up :)
Today's blog subject on El Nino reminds me of Dr. Masters blogs of 2012..

I fear if this el nino doesnt materialize it will lead to a lot of the below..



TD 09W has formed in WPAC and is forecast to become a Typhoon.

-Deleted for mistakenly quoting myself instead of modifying comment.
Well your point was right on, I was just backing it up :)

always appreciate the help...i thought i was fighting the tide.....as i mentioned a wait and see and more reasonable approach......hype was king a few months ago
Today's blog subject on El Nino reminds me of Dr. Masters blogs of 2012..

I fear if this el nino doesnt materialize it will lead to a lot of the below..



lol...that will be me....but without all the hair........now..on the other hand....when...el nino does appear....you will get a double portion of crow
Quoting 13. TimSoCal:



We've definitely been hoping for it. Whether or not ENSO actually cooperates is another story.


I'm up for even a small one.
Mead is drying up, and Powell will go before it.
Glenn Canyon will return from the ashes of growth and madness.
Link
TD 09W has formed in WPAC and is forecast to become a Typhoon.


another push for el nino.......did you hear that NC.....another push.......it's gonna happen...LOL
2nd aah! Thurs of July & looks like an even more so one coming next week. At least the power cos. had a couple of 79 dew pt days (on Mondays no less). Currently 71 w/ a 57 dew pt (51% RH) in S C IL. light E-ESE winds, 9 gust, 30.16". Beautiful weather, good looking crops in area, and the 'birds on a 3 game win streak (and finally hitting a little), can't beat it!
Quoting 34. ricderr:

Today's blog subject on El Nino reminds me of Dr. Masters blogs of 2012..

I fear if this el nino doesnt materialize it will lead to a lot of the below..



lol...that will be me....but without all the hair........now..on the other hand....when...el nino does appear....you will get a double portion of crow


I will gladly take my crow down with pleasure with a side order of cheetos..
TD 09 in the West Pacific.
98E in the East Pacific.
Thanks Doc! Busy week, so I haven't been on the blog too much. Neoguri's damage was too bad, but it is a good thing it weakened substantially before landfall.
Quoting 24. boltdwright:

Currently a westerly flow regime has dominated the Florida Peninsula, with this type of flow the Western side of Florida will typically see morning based convection while the East Coast will see the more robust downpours. Regarding the intensity you are referring to, morning convection often lacks intensity because instability is always lacking in the morning and you need much higher CAPE values that can't simply be provided in the morning. That's why morning convection in Florida is short-lived, and often not as intense. So really it's not quite out of the ordinary. Until the typical easterly flow regime for Florida Peninsula can re-establish itself you will see less intense storms and typically in the morning.





I agree some. I've watched storms early in the morning dump 6-8 inches of rain in just a short time in the past. I don't think the intensity of these small cells has been all that low actually. I misspoke in saying so. The problem is they've essentially been back building storms and we've only been getting the blow off from them, leading to rather light to moderate rain rates. They don't seem to want to push on shore. Through most of last summer, we we're caught in a flow pattern oriented more south - north. The west coast, panhandle and central FL received copious rains, while the east coast did not. Although what we have in place now is quite different, it does seem to me, living here for 28 years, this is not a typical pattern. It's not unusual for us to stay dry for long periods during the summer, but we usually do so with an easterly flow. We haven't had that pattern much this summer. We'll see how things evolve what with that large trough diving south next week. Perhaps it'll shake up the dynamics driving our local weather well as giving the upper midwest quite a cool shot. We need the subtropical jet to lift. Whatever is suppressing its movement, I'd like to know. Strong A-B high would be my guess.
I have a question for you guys
What do you think is worse a minimal Tropical Storm (40-45mph sustained for 1 min) or a minimal Blizzard (35mph Sustained) or 3 Hours?
I would say a Blizzard because it has to last 3 hours while TS conditions are based on 1 minute winds (in the Western Pacific 10 minutes)


I know this is a while after the fact, but here is a pic of the sunset in Southern WIsconsin after the bow echo on the 30th. It looked very similar where we are.



I will gladly take my crow down with pleasure with a side order of cheetos..


well......good thing we stocked up....



Quoting 32. boltdwright:

-Deleted for mistakenly quoting myself instead of modifying comment.


Don't be embarrassed. Mrs. Grothar does that to me all the time.
Quoting 39. ZacWeatherKidUK:

TD 09 in the West Pacific.



Looks like quite the robust little system!
It looks like the US is in for some more "Polar Vortex"! Take a look at the temperature anomaly map below.



In a similar fashion to this winter's harsh cold spells, the Polar Vortex will become wavy and misshapen, sending cold air towards the lower 48.



Just look at how cold it will get here in Southern Wisconsin!



Maybe this will be dubbed "The Ghost of the Polar Vortex"!
49. jpsb
Quoting 35. cytochromeC:



I'm up for even a small one.
Mead is drying up, and Powell will go before it.
Glenn Canyon will return from the ashes of growth and madness.
Link



I've read that the last 100-150 years have been unusually wet for southern California. And that droughts of ten or more years is the historical norm. I've also read that sometimes super droughts (100 years) happen there.


California drought: Past dry periods have lasted more than 200 years, scientists say


The sun rising over Madison on a mild summer day.
Thanks for the Update Dr. Masters...
(partial copy and paste Click link for entire article)

EN... SO?
Forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center haven’t declared El Niño conditions, even though the Niño3.4 index is currently around 0.5°C above normal, and has been for the past two months. What’s the hold up? In short, we’re waiting for the atmosphere to respond to the warmer sea-surface temperatures, and give us the “SO” part of ENSO.

SO what? The Southern Oscillation, that’s what. The Southern Oscillation is a seesaw in surface pressure between a large area surrounding Indonesia and another in the central-to-eastern tropical Pacific; it’s the atmospheric half of El Niño. Since ENSO is a coupled system, meaning the atmosphere and ocean influence each other, both need to meet the criteria for El Niño before we declare an El Niño event.

EN... SO?


Quoting GatorWX:


60kt shear just to the east of the Caribbean, with shear generally being 40-50kts throughout the Caribbean. Pretty much guarantees nothing will form down there in the next four weeks. That being said, the eastern GOMEX to US Eastern Seaboard looks very favorable.
SO what? The Southern Oscillation, that’s what. The Southern Oscillation is a seesaw in surface pressure between a large area surrounding Indonesia and another in the central-to-eastern tropical Pacific

that's a good article vr.....the 30 day average is now just below -4C......during an el nino event it's usually under -8 c....it's getting closer


7 Jul 2014 1016.23 1013.50 10.96 -4.29 2.48
Quoting 55. ricderr:

SO what? The Southern Oscillation, that’s what. The Southern Oscillation is a seesaw in surface pressure between a large area surrounding Indonesia and another in the central-to-eastern tropical Pacific

that's a good article vr.....the 30 day average is now just below -4C......during an el nino event it's usually under -8 c....it's getting closer


7 Jul 2014 1016.23 1013.50 10.96 -4.29 2.48


I liked it , plain english (didnt need a met PHD to understand it) and good explanation
Quoting 48. WIBadgerWeather:

It looks like the US is in for some more "Polar Vortex"! Take a look at the temperature anomaly map below.



In a similar fashion to this winter's harsh cold spells, the Polar Vortex will become wavy and misshapen, sending cold air towards the lower 48.



Just look at how cold it will get here in Southern Wisconsin!



Maybe this will be dubbed "The Ghost of the Polar Vortex



As I said in previous posts this is a part of midwest and northeast July climatology and is not at all unprecedented. And this summer of 2014 has not been notably cool there so far.

Look back to 1992 for a markedly cooler summer in the upper midwest.

Thanks Dr.  Part of the reason for the slightly lower SST's in the Central Atlantic MDR between Africa and the Caribbean is the SAL proliferation which has been shielding those waters a bit from direct sunlight just North of the ICTZ which is currently situated around 8N.  Those temps will should start to rise over the next 45 days to near normal as the SAL lifts a little to the North along with the sub-tropical ridge giving the August waves a little more moisture to work with.  It is going to take some time at this rate. 
Just wondering why your quotes don't look like others. It makes it difficult to know which are your words and which belong to some other anonymous person.
Quoting 55. ricderr:

SO what? The Southern Oscillation, that’s what. The Southern Oscillation is a seesaw in surface pressure between a large area surrounding Indonesia and another in the central-to-eastern tropical Pacific

that's a good article vr.....the 30 day average is now just below -4C......during an el nino event it's usually under -8 c....it's getting closer


7 Jul 2014 1016.23 1013.50 10.96 -4.29 2.48
Nice looking capitol building.

Quoting 50. WIBadgerWeather:



The sun rising over Madison on a mild summer day.
09W should become the West Pacific's next typhoon and likely the next super typhoon, although that should not occur until the extended range. It's a small storm, meaning it's especially susceptible to small changes in the environment, but that small size also increases its chances for rapid intensification assuming an inner core can be built.

Cold airmass for July even as far south as the mid south. Very impressive to see this in mid July!


Just re-posting my two images of the day for the SAL watchers:
Quoting 57. georgevandenberghe:




As I said in previous posts this is a part of midwest and northeast July climatology and is not at all unprecedented. And this summer of 2014 has not been notably cool there so far.

Look back to 1992 for a markedly cooler summer in the upper midwest.


Do you have some black walnut trees near you, do they change in late August or Sept? Will they be delayed this year due to the small periods of drought?
Quoting 54. CybrTeddy:



60kt shear just to the east of the Caribbean, with shear generally being 40-50kts throughout the Caribbean. Pretty much guarantee's nothing will form down there in the next four weeks. That being said, the eastern GOMEX to US eastern Seaboard looks very favorable.


I know. I was surprised when I saw 60 kts. Hell of a void in between jets as you alluded to.
Look at these highs. Looks like its time get the sweaters and jackets out up north. Likely will be some records falling with this next cold shot.

92W


Quoting 62. StormTrackerScott:

Cold airmass for July even as far south as the mid south. Very impressive to see this in mid July!



Could this be an indication of this coming winter for the lower 48?
Quoting 68. Climate175:

Could this be an indication of this coming winter for the lower 48?


Could be it started getting cold across the midwest last year towards the end of summer so we'll see if the pattern repeats this year. It does seem this pattern is locked into place.
What this pattern will likely do is increase the rains even more across FL next week.

Quoting 68. Climate175:

Could this be an indication of this coming winter for the lower 48?
I would bet on it.
Palm Springs Breaks Six Month Heat Record

Since record keeping began in Palm Springs in 1917, the city has not seen a warmer January through June than in 2014.

The average mean temperature, which includes highs and lows, was a whopping 74.2 degrees, almost a full degree above the next highest year in 1997.

It wasn't only Palm Springs though. Big Bear, Riverside, Anaheim, Santa Ana, and San Diego all broke the same record for their respective stations.

The cause can't be attributed to just one factor, but Southern California generally sees a warmer start to the year when El Niño is on the way in or out. Right now, it's still on the way in.

Most of the previous records were recorded during the start of the biggest El Niño on record, in 1997.

That does not mean the upcoming El Niño will be greater than the super Niño of 97-98', especially since a massive ridge of high pressure on the west coast greatly contributed to this past winter's heat.

What it does mean however, is we're likely in for a long, hot summer.


Link
Quoting 75. hydrus:

I would bet on it.


It's possible the effects of Global Warming are really starting let its effects be known across the US with extreme weather patterns repeating now for several years straight. What I am counting on is El-Nino coming and invigorating the sub tropical jet and giving the southern US decent shots at snow & ice.
Quoting 67. Grothar:

92W





They aren't very bullish with their forecast. Surprised they keep it a cat 1. Shear appears to stay low through the period, per GFS. Water temps, ha, well they're pretty high. Moisture seems to be abundant. Perhaps a small pocket of drier air immediately to the north and northwest of 09W. I would agree with TA13, could very well be our next super typhoon. Looks good atm and seems to have conditions ahead conducive to achieving that status.
Quoting 75. hydrus:

I would bet on it.
Yep, pattern looks rough.
Expect another stormy afternoon across Orlando with local models showing 2" to 4" of rain today across the metro.

A current May 2014 note on current short-term drought issues around the World.  Notice how conditions in NW Africa and South America straddle parts of the Atlantic and Caribbean basins.  Just noting, like last year, that this might be a factor in introducing some anomalous dry air patterns into the MDR and Caribbean down the road this season (link below):

In May 2014, short-term global drought conditions once again expanded or intensified in many locations.   In North America, drought continues to be intense in the Central and Northwest part of the continent.   In South America, drought remains entrenched but has eased slightly in the East, while strengthening in the North, around the equator.  In Africa, drought remains in the Northwest and South and has begun in areas in the western equatorial region.  In Europe, drought remains around the western Mediterranean region and in the Central parts of the continent while conditions are improving around the Black Sea.  In Asia, drought improved from the Middle East through the Caspian Sea.  Intense drought continues in Southeast Asia and expanded in the Northeast and into Japan this month.  In Australia, drought eased slightly in the south-central and western part of the continent.  Other areas of Oceana to the east of Australia drought conditions are intensifying while to the north, conditions are easing slightly.    


http://www.drought.gov/gdm/current-conditions
82. jpsb
Quoting 62. StormTrackerScott:

Cold airmass for July even as far south as the mid south. Very impressive to see this in mid July!





What the heck, from the other blog after the new blog was created.



Ice ages (glaciation really since technically we are still in an ice age) start in North America, the rest of the globe can warm/hot but if North America gets cold watch out. The last interglacial the Eemian was much warmer then our current interglacial according to most paleoclimatologists. Yet somehow a switch was flipped (in North America) and the huge continental ice sheets began to form.

Watching the Polar Vortex is I think giving us a big clue of what weather looks like at the beginning of a glaciation period. I'm certainly not claiming that the ice sheets are coming any time soon. North America, Canada near the Hudson Bay area in particular, would need to get a lot colder for that. Just saying that I think our Polar Vortex is acting in a similar fashion.

Someone posted a temp chart of the Great Lakes. Burrr! Thanks for posting that.

Since there are been a lot of El Nino discussion I'll throw my two cents in too. I was never on board the super El Nino train and cautioned all that we don't even have an El Nino yet months ago. I will repeat that caution now for those saying El Nino is a bust. There is lots of warm water in the Tropical Pacific so an El Nino is still possible. Keep an eye on the cold water coming from Antarctic if that retreats then maybe an El Nino. Personally I think a retreat is unlikely given the unprecedented amount of sea ice floating in the Southern Ocean but that's just me and my record at making forecasts is not so good.
Quoting 78. GatorWX:



They aren't very bullish with their forecast. Surprised they keep it a cat 1. Shear appears to stay low through the period, per GFS. Water temps, ha, well they're pretty high. Moisture seems to be abundant. Perhaps a small pocket of drier air immediately to the north and northwest of 09W. I would agree with TA13, could very well be our next super typhoon. Looks good atm and seems to have conditions ahead conducive to achieving that status.


This is just an early run. I am sure the next ones will be higher.
Quoting 83. Grothar:



This is just an early run. I am sure the next ones will be higher.


I would assume.
Quoting 83. Grothar:



This is just an early run. I am sure the next ones will be higher.


I was referring to the official forecast, which is the same intensity-wise.
Quoting 61. TropicalAnalystwx13:

09W should become the West Pacific's next typhoon and likely the next super typhoon, although that should not occur until the extended range. It's a small storm, meaning it's especially susceptible to small changes in the environment, but that small size also increases its chances for rapid intensification assuming an inner core can be built.





Looks pretty OP.

It's actually going to pass near the area where my research is, maybe we can make use of it.
Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
SOI values for 07 Jul 2014 Average for last 30 days -4.3
Average for last 90 days 2.5
Daily contribution to SOI calculation 11.0


ESPI today is -0.60
You're right. Cold!



Quoting 61. TropicalAnalystwx13:

09W should become the West Pacific's next typhoon and likely the next super typhoon, although that should not occur until the extended range. It's a small storm, meaning it's especially susceptible to small changes in the environment, but that small size also increases its chances for rapid intensification assuming an inner core can be built.




The GFS & CMC have come back a lot on intensity, but both have changed track quite a bit, but both tracks are very similar.





THE CMC sure is interesting in the long range though:



Quadruplets!
Quoting 66. StormTrackerScott:

Look at these highs. Looks like its time get the sweaters and jackets out up north. Likely will be some records falling with this next cold shot.


Quoting 82. jpsb:



What the heck, from the other blog after the new blog was created.



Ice ages (glaciation really since technically we are still in an ice age) start in North America, the rest of the globe can warm/hot but if North America gets cold watch out. The last interglacial the Eemian was much warmer then our current interglacial according to most paleoclimatologists. Yet somehow a switch was flipped (in North America) and the huge continental ice sheets began to form.

Watching the Polar Vortex is I think giving us a big clue of what weather looks like at the beginning of a glaciation period. I'm certainly not claiming that the ice sheets are coming any time soon. North America, Canada near the Hudson Bay area in particular, would need to get a lot colder for that. Just saying that I think our Polar Vortex is acting in a similar fashion.

Someone posted a temp chart of the Great Lakes. Burrr! Thanks for posting that.

Since there are been a lot of El Nino discussion I'll throw my two cents in too. I was never on board the super El Nino train and cautioned all that we don't even have an El Nino yet months ago. I will repeat that caution now for those saying El Nino is a bust. There is lots of warm water in the Tropical Pacific so an El Nino is still possible. Keep an eye on the cold water coming from Antarctic if that retreats then maybe an El Nino. Personally I think a retreat is unlikely given the unprecedented amount of sea ice floating in the Southern Ocean but that's just me and my record at making forecasts is not so good.


Although it doesn't relate directly to this event, there are still snow piles sitting around in Eau Claire, WI from the prolonged cold temps into spring.
Quoting 84. GatorWX:



I would assume.


I just don't understand the big discrepancy between he models right now. They've all been pretty close on the few systems we have had up to now. I can't wait to see the next EURO.
Quoting 89. Envoirment:



The GFS & CMC have come back a lot on intensity, but both have changed track quite a bit, but both tracks are very similar.





THE CMC sure is interesting in the long range though:



Quadruplets!


Well, there's the CMC for you in one image.
Thought this was interesting, you can see how much energy Neoguri took out of the waters:





That cold patch is where Neoguri peaked in intensity. It left quite the mark!
I think this Winter will be similar to last Winter(+PDO/PNA and -WPO/Epo) Except there will be Atlantic blocking(-AO/NAO) and the SE ridge will be noticeably absent. The former was missing last year which put Florida more or less under a suppressed southeast ridge. This year I'm expecting the cold to focus much further south and east as a cool Autumn and an early Front-loaded Winter(cold Nov/Dec/early Jan) followed by perhaps a mid-Jan thaw mainly for the north(though a double dip toward March is not out of the question).

I wouldn't doubt if Florida receives an Early Autumn unlike last year(with a first taste of Fall right on time for the Autumnal Equinox).
Endless

Quoting 57. georgevandenberghe:

As I said in previous posts this is a part of midwest and northeast July climatology and is not at all unprecedented. And this summer of 2014 has not been notably cool there so far.

Look back to 1992 for a markedly cooler summer in the upper midwest.
At least we had the Mt. Pinatubo eruption to blame in 1992:
The Atmospheric Impact of the 1991 Mount Pinatubo Eruption
"Effects on climate were an observed surface cooling in the Northern Hemisphere of up to 0.5 to 0.6C, equivalent to a hemispheric-wide reduction in net radiation of 4 watts per square meter and a cooling of perhaps as large as -0.4C over large parts of the Earth in 1992-93."
Worrisome for Taiwan, to say the least.

Quoting 89. Envoirment:



The GFS & CMC have come back a lot on intensity, but both have changed track quite a bit, but both tracks are very similar.





THE CMC sure is interesting in the long range though:



Quadruplets!
Quoting 68. Climate175:

Could this be an indication of this coming winter for the lower 48?


I doubt it. It's just a cool outbreak in mid July.

If El Nino fails to materialize (as might happen) or manifests as central rather than east pacific warming, odds for a cold CONUS winter are higher. The modoki pattern is especially correlated with cold eastern U.S. But as I've often cynically noted the forecast pattern of the winter turns out to be the verifying pattern of the week (not more)
Quoting guygee:
At least we had the Mt. Pinatubo eruption to blame in 1992:
The Atmospheric Impact of the 1991 Mount Pinatubo Eruption
"Effects on climate were an observed surface cooling in the Northern Hemisphere of up to 0.5 to 0.6C, equivalent to a hemispheric-wide reduction in net radiation of 4 watts per square meter and a cooling of perhaps as large as -0.4C over large parts of the Earth in 1992-93."

When I was a kid in Cleveland in the 50's and early 60's, I can't even begin to count the number of times we had swimming trips and picnics canceled by highs in the mid-60's with a dismal, cold drizzle coming down after a high the previous day in the mid-80's - and this was in July. The record low for July 15 is 48, which just happened to occur in 1960. Maybe we're just getting back to what used to be "normal". We didn't have a "polar vortex". It just got cold sometimes. We didn't know anything about "derechos". We just had some bad squall lines from time to time. Weather, unless it was unusually extreme, like a blizzard or tornado, rarely even made the news. There's an old saying about how perception eventually becomes reality. I wonder if that's not the case with weather now.
Quoting 99. sar2401:


When I was a kid in Cleveland in the 50's and early 60's, I can't even begin to count the number of times we had swimming trips and picnics canceled by highs in the mid-60's with a dismal, cold drizzle coming down after a high the previous day in the mid-80's - and this was in July. The record low for July 15 is 48, which just happened to occur in 1960. Maybe we're just getting back to what used to be "normal". We didn't have a "polar vortex". It just got cold sometimes. We didn't know anything about "derechos". We just had some bad squall lines from time to time. Weather, unless it was unusually extreme, like a blizzard or tornado, rarely even made the news. There's an old saying about how perception eventually becomes reality. I wonder if that's not the case with weather now.
My Father said the same thing....The worst being 1961.
Quoting 96. guygee:

At least we had the Mt. Pinatubo eruption to blame in 1992:
The Atmospheric Impact of the 1991 Mount Pinatubo Eruption
"Effects on climate were an observed surface cooling in the Northern Hemisphere of up to 0.5 to 0.6C, equivalent to a hemispheric-wide reduction in net radiation of 4 watts per square meter and a cooling of perhaps as large as -0.4C over large parts of the Earth in 1992-93."


Summer of 2000 was cooler than normal in the Northeast. There was also a Michigan patchy frost incident in mid July 200 (forecast the day before after low dewpoint highs in the upper 50s) This stuff does happen.

Extreme drought also results in higher summer frost risk even in an overall warm summer in the upper midwest but that
does not seem to be an issue with this year's midsummer chill outbreak. It looks to be cloudy over the affected regions during the worst of the chill also. Point is summer cold can get worse in these regions.
That wave NE of South America is looking interesting. I think thats what the NCEP Models was depicting.
Quoting 99. sar2401:


When I was a kid in Cleveland in the 50's and early 60's, I can't even begin to count the number of times we had swimming trips and picnics canceled by highs in the mid-60's with a dismal, cold drizzle coming down after a high the previous day in the mid-80's - and this was in July. The record low for July 15 is 48, which just happened to occur in 1960. Maybe we're just getting back to what used to be "normal". We didn't have a "polar vortex". It just got cold sometimes. We didn't know anything about "derechos". We just had some bad squall lines from time to time. Weather, unless it was unusually extreme, like a blizzard or tornado, rarely even made the news. There's an old saying about how perception eventually becomes reality. I wonder if that's not the case with weather now.



Most record low daily maximum temperatures in the DC area for July are in the upper 60s or low 70s. Yep it happens.

On August 30, 1986 it got down to 49F with a cold wind at DCA, the coldest August reading at the site. This air made it to TLH where I was in grad school and I remember a cool pleasant prefrontal morning in the low 70s and then a definitely unpleasant cold drizzle and low 60s by midafternoon.. in August.. in Tallahassee! A number of FL panhandle stations set their record low August temperatures in this event.

The world did not end. Ths subsequent winter was not notably cold.

SPC added a slight risk over central NC today..I kinda figured that considered the ones we had early this morning..

...ERN SC INTO ERN NC AND SERN VA...
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A CORRIDOR OF LIMITED/THINNING CLOUDS ACROSS
THIS AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. STRONGER DIABATIC
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING OVER THIS AREA WITH MLCAPE OF
2000-2500 J/KG EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT AND
SPREAD/DEVELOP NEWD ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF MODEST SWLY WINDS ALOFT.
STRONG INSTABILITY/HIGH PW CONTENT WILL PROMOTE STRONG WIND GUSTS
WITH STRONGER STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.



Extended Forecast Discussion

Excerpt:

THE IMPRESSIVE FULL-LATITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO
SEND TEMPERATURES SOARING OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AND THE ADJACENT
LOWLANDS OF OREGON AND IDAHO. AFTERNOON HIGHS MAY WELL RANGE
BETWEEN 100F AND 110F FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD
Pouch webpage for 2014 is up, however:

Current wave/pouches: 2014 not started yet
Quoting hydrus:
My Father said the same thing....The worst being 1961.

The thing is I can't tell what's really normal after my 68 years on earth. The 40's and 50's were a time of both record cold and record heat, with much of the Midwest warmer than since the Dust Bowl days. The 60's and 70's were generally calm by comparison. The last time it was officially over 100 in Cleveland in my childhood was 1955. It didn't touch 100 again until 1988. The 60's and 70's, while not having unusual heat, did have many occasions of -11 or below. Just looking at Fourth of July weather from 1900, the range of highs was from 98 down to 64, while the range of lows was from 76 to 44. I think we get a little fixated on the idea that what's happening now makes us terminally unique. It doesn't. Our fathers and grandfathers experienced a wide range of weather also. As I wrote, we just didn't have a "polar vortex" to start flapping our arms about. It just was cold and hot sometimes.
Quoting 100. hydrus:

My Father said the same thing....The worst being 1961.


1961 together with 1907 were also outlier cold springs, the coldest of the 20'th century in much of the U.S.

Younger people tend to underestimate the real variability of weather because they haven't yet
experienced the low (but not zero) frequency events.
Quoting georgevandenberghe:


Summer of 2000 was cooler than normal in the Northeast. There was also a Michigan patchy frost incident in mid July 200 (forecast the day before after low dewpoint highs in the upper 50s) This stuff does happen.

Extreme drought also results in higher summer frost risk even in an overall warm summer in the upper midwest but that
does not seem to be an issue with this year's midsummer chill outbreak. It looks to be cloudy over the affected regions during the worst of the chill also. Point is summer cold can get worse in these regions.

The other thing about both cool and hot temperatures is that location is everything. Places like Cleveland and other cities in the Upper Midwest are the closest to Canada and always on the edge of colder air. States like Alabama are far from continental airmasses in summer, so we're always on the edge of heat. A weak of temperatures pushing 104 and lows in the mid to upper 70's would be highly unusual in a place like Cleveland, Chicago, or Minneapolis. Highs in the 60's with lows in the upper 40's in central or south Alabama would really be highly unusual. Now, reverse those readings and most residents would say it's a little colder or warmer than usual, but it generally wouldn't have made news before the internet era.
Looks like the ECMWF was right with 09W not becoming a monster >920mb storm. GFS keeps it only in the 990's arena for 132 hours.
Quoting 39. ZacWeatherKidUK:

TD 09 in the West Pacific.


That's 2 more Pacific storms in the last 24 hours.
This is from an interesting article, which I found here:-

Link

OR at:-

http://www.mercurynews.com/science/ci_24993601/ca lifornia-drought-past-dry-periods-have-lasted-more

Through studies of tree rings, sediment and other natural evidence, researchers have documented multiple droughts in California that lasted 10 or 20 years in a row during the past 1,000 years -- compared to the mere three-year duration of the current dry spell. The two most severe megadroughts make the Dust Bowl of the 1930s look tame: a 240-year-long drought that started in 850 and, 50 years after the conclusion of that one, another that stretched at least 180 years.

I am "Thinking" about this as logically as I can at 9pm.
It makes me wonder what happened to the rain bringing El Nino during those long droughts and maybe that can happen again?
If with the climate change idea, conditions prevent an El Nino from forming over long periods, possibly up to hundreds of years.
Just a thought.
98E is equals the Kirk's formation in 2012.
114. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA presented/prepared thru University of Hawaii
Imagery Period::201407-09;2315UTC_-10;1715UTC (July 9th thru 10th)
Imagery type:: Wv4 into Visible
Imagery Location:: Central Atlantic close to Caribbean (Antilles)
Subject::myPOI4


If interested posted 3 previous VIDs of this POI4 coming off Africa

1) Dr.Masters entry=2720 comment#352
2-earliest) Dr. Masters entry= comment#311
3-another) on my blog explaining "funktopGal"...i knew her well

 Apology for late upload youtube is giving me a run-around(or they've got serous server issues), 72mins (literally) to verify an upload via 3 messages.(had2vent)




This article might be of interest to "the warmists."

Polar Vortex Makes Shocking Summer Return to US...IN JULY!/
I saw a record July low in '61 the other day (in the lower 50s) and thought wonder if Mom rems. that cuz I would have been 8 mos. old & she would have just found out she was pregnant again. I just looked up Spfld, IL record low for July - it occurred on the 14th of 1975, 44 degrees. Can't rem that though, but not surprised. Record Jan low occurred in 1977, believe '79 had longest below zero stretch as well as longest below freezing - remember both of them very well!

Currently 83 w/ a 52 dew pt. in SC IL, still light easterly winds, although gust has gone up to 13 & pressure has dropped a little to 30.12"
Quoting 116. CycloneOz:

This article might be of interest to "the warmists."

Polar Vortex Makes Shocking Summer Return to US...IN JULY!/


Why? When the polar vortex brought cold weather to the contiguous US last winter, it pulled warm air up to Alaska and beyond, warming the Arctic. It'll do the same now. What's your point?
looks like the rain in florida is skipping riverview again today. does anyone know if the shape of tampa bay may have something to do with the east part of the bay really not getting rain very much. seems like it goes right over us here and starts just at interstate 75 everytime
Quoting 89. Envoirment:



The GFS & CMC have come back a lot on intensity, but both have changed track quite a bit, but both tracks are very similar.





THE CMC sure is interesting in the long range though:



Quadruplets!
CMC=constantly making cyclones.
Quoting 116. CycloneOz:

This article might be of interest to "the warmists."

Polar Vortex Makes Shocking Summer Return to US...IN JULY!/


Do you think that this is more likely because of a global cooling, or because of the reason that Dr Masters gave in his previous blog entry? Note that the article that you posted a link to quotes Dr Masters' previous blog entry. Do you have any guesses as to where July's global average temperature will rank among the other years since 1880?
Quoting 31. Tropicsweatherpr:

TD 09W has formed in WPAC and is forecast to become a Typhoon.


Looks like this one may impact Taiwan...

Quoting 58. weathermanwannabe:

Thanks Dr.  Part of the reason for the slightly lower SST's in the Central Atlantic MDR between Africa and the Caribbean is the SAL proliferation which has been shielding those waters a bit from direct sunlight just North of the ICTZ which is currently situated around 8N.  Those temps will should start to rise over the next 45 days to near normal as the SAL lifts a little to the North along with the sub-tropical ridge giving the August waves a little more moisture to work with.  It is going to take some time at this rate. 
Long range forecasts are not suggesting much of a shift until about this time next month. This seems like typical July to me, though, in the sense that high pressure abounds across much of the N ATL...

Quoting 96. guygee:

At least we had the Mt. Pinatubo eruption to blame in 1992:
The Atmospheric Impact of the 1991 Mount Pinatubo Eruption
"Effects on climate were an observed surface cooling in the Northern Hemisphere of up to 0.5 to 0.6C, equivalent to a hemispheric-wide reduction in net radiation of 4 watts per square meter and a cooling of perhaps as large as -0.4C over large parts of the Earth in 1992-93."
Well, since you mention it, we have had several eruptions along the Indonesian volcanic belt since January.

98E is equals the Kirk's formation in 2012.
If cold air comes south, that means warmer air replaces it further north. Will a cool spell in parts of the U.S. lead to more arctic sea ice loss?

Just [trying to] keep things in perspective.
On the abnormal cold over the US.... a few years ago when I was traveling through the upper Midwest I spent a day in Chicago when it was only 78 degrees at 11 a.m. .... In N. Dakota it felt like a cool winter's day [which for me is highs in the mid-70s] and while I was in Wyoming they had what locals described as a "cool snap", with days in the 50s and nights in the upper 40s.... my friend's teen boys were washing their cars in shorts and bare backs, while I was the only person in town huddled in a coat.... lol

From the local reaction, it didn't seem strange to them to have those kinds of temps in July and early August. I'm surmising that while this upcoming wx cool-off may be unusual, it's not that anomalous ....
Baha,here is the new track at 21:00z warning. More southern track indeed that puts in play not only Taiwan but the Phillipines and as a strong Typhoon.



Quoting intampa:
looks like the rain in florida is skipping riverview again today. does anyone know if the shape of tampa bay may have something to do with the east part of the bay really not getting rain very much. seems like it goes right over us here and starts just at interstate 75 everytime
Bodies of water may influence weather; just like flying over them one will experience downdrafts and updrafts based on water or land below. How much so is more for the pros here to answer but by my own observations, it does to a small degree especially when there is a large difference in temperature between the water and adjacent land.

Quoting 128. Grothar:


i am east of naples was under the worst of that cell . Rain gauge says 3.4 inches from it and still raining but much lighter
frequent lightning all during  and a bit of a gust front when it started
Wish I could ship some of that rain Nevada or California way
Quoting 125. bappit:

If cold air comes south, that means warmer air replaces it further north. Will a cool spell in parts of the U.S. lead to more arctic sea ice loss?

Just [trying to] keep things in perspective.
Also should consider what happens downstream as well.... does this mean more dry hot wx in Europe?
Well, we ended up with just over 2 inches again today, putting us near 4.25 since yesterday, I'm happy to say the longest and weirdest localized dry streak I've ever seen here in the rainy season has ended with a nice bang :)

We also had some impressively close lightning hits again today, and some surprisingly strong wind gusts topping 40-45 mph which is odd for a day with very little flow from surface to aloft with high pressure right over central FL.

Quoting 134. Jedkins01:

Well, we ended up with just over 2 inches again today, putting us near 4.25 since yesterday, I'm happy to say the longest and weirdest localized dry streak I've ever seen here in the rainy season has ended with a nice bang :)

We also had some impressively close lightning hits again today, and some surprisingly strong wind gusts topping 40-45 mph which is odd for a day with very little flow from surface to aloft with high pressure right over central FL.
that was like here this winter . all the cold front lines seemed to break up just before they got here
Quoting 127. Tropicsweatherpr:

Baha,here is the new track at 21:00z warning. More southern track indeed that puts in play not only Taiwan but the Phillipines and as a strong Typhoon.




Hmmm... will be interesting to see what the models settle on now there's a storm extant...
Quoting 130. floridaT:


i am east of naples was under the worst of that cell . Rain gauge says 3.4 inches from it and still raining but much lighter



I think this is the 9th day in a row we have had rain. I can't find the local amount in Fort Lauderdale.
From Dr. M's blog:

"Figure 2. Forecasts of the departure of SST from average along the Equator in the Pacific between 120°W - 170°W, 5°N - 5°S as made by computer models that forecast ENSO (the El Niño/Southern Oscillation.) Forecasts above the thick red line indicate an El Niño event; forecasts below the thick blue line are for a La Niña event; forecasts between the red and blue line are for neutral conditions. None of the models are predicting La Niña, and about 2/3 are predicting El Niño."

If the atmosphere does not respond to high sea surface temps then it is not an el nino. So temps above the red line are consistent with an el nino but by themselves do not demonstrate that an el nino exists. Dr. M uses the words "indicate" (ambiguous) and "are for" (not so ambiguous). So he seems to misrepresent the SST forecasts a bit.
Quoting 137. BahaHurican:

Hmmm... will be interesting to see what the models settle on now there's a storm extant...



Most of the models have been quite consistent on a more westerly movement with this one







Quoting intampa:
looks like the rain in florida is skipping riverview again today. does anyone know if the shape of tampa bay may have something to do with the east part of the bay really not getting rain very much. seems like it goes right over us here and starts just at interstate 75 everytime

I'm sure it does. I was posting last night about our relatively small (300 sq miles, 600+ miles of shoreline) but not tiny lake has the tendency to deflect storms of the west toward the NE and weaken the storms in general. The lake effect in Cleveland is a prominent part of the weather pattern. Indeed, similar patterns can e seen in all the Great Lakes. A body of water the size of Tampa Bay must have an effect but what that is will have to be left to someone who's actually researched the question. The one thing to note is the water temperature of the Bay is only slightly cooler than the air temperature. As a storm traverses this warm water it's probably not going to get much stronger and may even weaken for a bit, since the water is just below air temperature, if only by a few degrees.
Quoting 117. dabirds:

I saw a record July low in '61 the other day (in the lower 50s) and thought wonder if Mom rems. that cuz I would have been 8 mos. old & she would have just found out she was pregnant again. I just looked up Spfld, IL record low for July - it occurred on the 14th of 1975, 44 degrees. Can't rem that though, but not surprised. Record Jan low occurred in 1977, believe '79 had longest below zero stretch as well as longest below freezing - remember both of them very well!

Currently 83 w/ a 52 dew pt. in SC IL, still light easterly winds, although gust has gone up to 13 & pressure has dropped a little to 30.12"


I was a teenager (17) back then in July 1975 and remember the cool outbreak in mid July in the midwest. I was in the DC area and we got southerly flow, a stalled north-south front and lots of rain and flooding. My garden was severely damaged by poor drainage in summer-warm soil and since then I have planned
and designed for flooding in subsequent vegetable plots. The cool air did not make it to DC.

Winter 1975-76 was not notably cold in December but was below normal in January.. notable after several previous warm ones. However February 1976 in DC brought extreme (for February) warmth comparable in departures from normal to March 2012. February was basically like April for three weeks whereas March 2012 was basically like May for three weeks.
Quoting 120. intampa:

looks like the rain in florida is skipping riverview again today. does anyone know if the shape of tampa bay may have something to do with the east part of the bay really not getting rain very much. seems like it goes right over us here and starts just at interstate 75 everytime


I'll just repeat my cynical observation that Cumulonimbus_missingus is one of the most
common summer cloud formations :-)
Quoting Grothar:


I think this is the 9th day in a row we have had rain. I can't find the local amount in Fort Lauderdale.

There seems to be some kind of feedback loop between the weather in south Alabama and south Florida. Back when we were having all the rain in late April and May, you guys were having your heatwave. You're now getting these Biblical down pours while we have a heatwave and no rain. Maybe it's the placement of a low in the eastern Gulf that sets off storms for you but then cuts off the Panhandle, south Georgia, and south Alabama from enough unstable air for us to get widespread convection. Today is the first day we've had more than few scattered storms, with an apparent squall line trying to get started from south GA to the Panhandle. We'll see if this is the beginning of you getting shut out of convection. So far, from my completely unscientific observations, the relationship between our two areas when it comes to rain is about 1:1.

latest


NOAA's monthly El Niño discussion, issued on Thursday July 10, maintains an El Niño watch, and continues to project a 70% chance of El Niño forming this summer watch the El Niño come in late fall this year not this summer..its summer right now and no El Niño right now..hahahaha!
Now everyone is talking about a cold winter becasue of a little cool down up North.

Quoting 138. Grothar:



I think this is the 9th day in a row we have had rain. I can't find the local amount in Fort Lauderdale.
are you near the beach or out by the Sawgrass? big difference in summer rain
Quoting 134. Jedkins01:

Well, we ended up with just over 2 inches again today, putting us near 4.25 since yesterday, I'm happy to say the longest and weirdest localized dry streak I've ever seen here in the rainy season has ended with a nice bang :)

We also had some impressively close lightning hits again today, and some surprisingly strong wind gusts topping 40-45 mph which is odd for a day with very little flow from surface to aloft with high pressure right over central FL.
And it's continuing as the day goes on.



Quoting 144. sar2401:


There seems to be some kind of feedback loop between the weather in south Alabama and south Florida. Back when we were having all the rain in late April and May, you guys were having your heatwave. You're now getting these Biblical down pours while we have a heatwave and no rain. Maybe it's the placement of a low in the eastern Gulf that sets off storms for you but then cuts off the Panhandle, south Georgia, and south Alabama from enough unstable air for us to get widespread convection. Today is the first day we've had more than few scattered storms, with an apparent squall line trying to get started from south GA to the Panhandle. We'll see if this is the beginning of you getting shut out of convection. So far, from my completely unscientific observations, the relationship between our two areas when it comes to rain is about 1:1.




Our rains haven't been biblical. More like Catechism 101. We are only about 3 or 4 inches above normal for the year. June is always our rainiest month. Even though I did not live here all the time, I do remember some Junes where it did rain almost everyday. This has been more like our normal early summer pattern from years ago, although the westerly flow has been unusually long. The Gulf states do have a connection in their rain patterns.
Quoting 133. BahaHurican:

Also should consider what happens downstream as well.... does this mean more dry hot wx in Europe?


Classic Rossby wave theory (from the late 30s) suggests the downstream ridging from a midwest trough should be over the Atlantic with another trough over Europe in winter and over the eastern Atlantic in summer; this because the wavelength of stationary waves is shorter in summer. Rossby waves propagate to the west against the westerlies with propagation speed proportional to wavelength so with higher westerly winds in winter the longer wavelengths are stationary (two or three waves ) while in summer a five wave pattern is the most stable. Five wave patterns in summer have been associated with abnormally persistent and large weather anomalies since at least the 1960s
Quoting 148. gulfbreeze:

Now everyone is talking about a cold winter becasue of a little cool down up North.


Don't confuse the pattern of the winter with the pattern of the week.
Quoting 149. floridaT:


are you near the beach or out by the Sawgrass? big difference in summer rain



On the Intracoastal. It rains a lot more inland. Usually the storms moving from the west fizzle by the time they get here. A person, who shall remain unnamed, dragged me to the Sawgrass Mall once, and I swore if we ever went there again, I would tie a boat to the back of our car.
12z Euro showing possible potential near Africa..weak but maybe the kickoff to the Cape Verde Season?

145) My 7 day has Tu Wed highs both in upper & mid 70s. Glad to see the 8-14 not as bad, heading to Lake of the Ozarks w/ the boat the 19th, would hate for it to be any colder than mid 70s then! A cold freeze just went through StL though, Yadi tore ligaments in his throwing hand and is out 2-3 mos. Sorry Blue!
Quoting 154. Grothar:



On the Intracoastal. It rains a lot more inland. Usually the storms moving from the west fizzle by the time they get here. A person, who shall remain unnamed, dragged me to the Sawgrass Mall once, and I swore if we ever went there again, I would tie a boat to the back of our car.
There's a reason why that used to be the Everglades once upon a time.... one weekend when I was in town I went out to Sawgrass Mills... stopped at a Walmart out on Griffin or something just before u get to I 75.... Took me about 40 minutes to drive back out to the coast that night the rain was so torrential. But near the airport it was practically dry. I'm always surprised one doesn't hear more about flooding in W Broward.
Quoting 155. ncstorm:

12z Euro showing possible potential near Africa..weak but maybe the kickoff to the Cape Verde Season?


I hope so we need something to track. You know how this blog gets when things get boring. :P

Quoting 157. BahaHurican:

There's a reason why that used to be the Everglades once upon a time.... one weekend when I was in town I went out to Sawgrass Mills... stopped at a Walmart out on Griffin or something just before u get to I 75.... Took me about 40 minutes to drive back out to the coast that night the rain was so torrential. But near the airport it was practically dry. I'm always surprised one doesn't hear more about flooding in W Broward.
the ground here in florida percolates very fast. my yard today as it was torrental rain had about 2 inches of water but as soon as rain slowed the standing water was gone in minuets. The bad side of this is in the winter I get a nice rain and the ground is all dried out in a matter of a couple days
Quoting 158. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I hope so we need something to track. You know how this blog gets when things get boring. :P


oh yeah..

CMC 240 hrs, vigorous spin with vorticity.
img src="">
Where did the wind shear go!!


Not much from the JMA, yet. Still forecast to be a TS.



Wind shear in the WPAC.


no more tropical storms for the next fives days!
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #64
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM NEOGURI (T1408)
6:00 AM JST July 11 2014
=============================

Near Isumi [Chiba Prefecture]

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Neoguri (990 hPa) located at 35.3N 140.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots.. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast at 20 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
325 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
210 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 45.3N 147.1E - Extratropical Cyclone In Kuril waters
Quoting 155. ncstorm:

12z Euro showing possible potential near Africa..weak but maybe the kickoff to the Cape Verde Season?


I will find it Ironic if Bertha develops near Africa like the 2008 storm.
Quoting 158. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I hope so we need something to track. You know how this blog gets when things get boring. :P
The early Cape Verde season waves usually Poof quickly after exiting Africa. Best chance first will be a low rider wave.
Central Fort Myers got 3.30" of rain in about 1.5 hours (as reported by NBC-2 News).
I'm a little S.E. of the city and I only received .01" (basically a few sprinkles).

Just shows how some areas get blasted while other areas just down the road get nothing.

We did have 2 hours of non-stop thunder.
Quoting Grothar:


Our rains haven't been biblical. More like Catechism 101. We are only about 3 or 4 inches above normal for the year. June is always our rainiest month. Even though I did not live here all the time, I do remember some Junes where it did rain almost everyday. This has been more like our normal early summer pattern from years ago, although the westerly flow has been unusually long. The Gulf states do have a connection in their rain patterns.

Of course, one of the problems with reading the blog is it seems like, for some people, every thunderstorm in Florida is of Biblical proportions. :-) I sometimes wonder if a few of the posters realize there are thunderstorms outside Florida. Was I under the mistaken impression that it was unusually hot in May/June before your current crop of storms arrived? If not, that's exactly the period we were unusually wet and had below seasonal average temperatures. It was nice while it lasted, but it seems your increase in storms has an almost perfect correlation with our decrease. If we don't get thunderstorms every three days or so, that's when we get our heatwaves. I don't know what the teleconnection is between Florida and Alabama, but it sure looks like it exists. I just hope we get a break and at least some of that rain gets back up here. The very wet spring has helped the crops survive the heat stretch so far, but another week of this and the peanuts and cotton are going to be looking pretty bad.
just a little something interesting but I noticed some of the SREF ensembles wants to develop something possible developing to the right of the Bahamas..it wasnt enthusiastic in the 18z run..

12z


06z


00z
when you get a e cen fl. severe thunderstorm you might as well be in a strong tropical storm. but it only last 10 minutes or so. its been wet past week but getting back to normal now with just a cool wind front. no rain euro? two weeks away so yes a system in the mdr is possible.
Quoting 170. sar2401:


Of course, one of the problems with reading the blog is it seems like, for some people, every thunderstorm in Florida is of Biblical proportions. :-) I sometimes wonder if a few of the posters realize there are thunderstorms outside Florida. Was I under the mistaken impression that it was unusually hot in May/June before your current crop of storms arrived? If not, that's exactly the period we were unusually wet and had below seasonal average temperatures. It was nice while it lasted, but it seems your increase in storms has an almost perfect correlation with our decrease. If we don't get thunderstorms every three days or so, that's when we get our heatwaves. I don't know what the teleconnection is between Florida and Alabama, but it sure looks like it exists. I just hope we get a break and at least some of that rain gets back up here. The very wet spring has helped the crops survive the heat stretch so far, but another week of this and the peanuts and cotton are going to be looking pretty bad.


It was the warmest winter I can remember.
Quoting sar2401:

Of course, one of the problems with reading the blog is it seems like, for some people, every thunderstorm in Florida is of Biblical proportions. :-) I sometimes wonder if a few of the posters realize there are thunderstorms outside Florida. ....
Stop taking the rain out of our thunder. Our storm embellishments are like a security blanket. :)
Quoting dabirds:
145) My 7 day has Tu Wed highs both in upper & mid 70s. Glad to see the 8-14 not as bad, heading to Lake of the Ozarks w/ the boat the 19th, would hate for it to be any colder than mid 70s then! A cold freeze just went through StL though, Yadi tore ligaments in his throwing hand and is out 2-3 mos. Sorry Blue!


If our local forecast is to be believed, Eufaula will see even less than our usual classic "Not as Hot Front" out of the "Polar Vortex".

Tuesday Night A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70.

Wednesday A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 90.

Wednesday Night A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly clear, with a low around 67.

Thursday A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 90.

So the sole effect will be to reduce the high to 90 from 91-95 and reduce the low from 70-74 to 67...for one night. Maybe this cold air "outbreak" will be more impressive further north, but I'm not going to start looking for a jacket yet. :-)
Quoting 164. hurricanes2018:



no more tropical storms for the next fives days!
Or the 5 after that... or the 5 after that... ad nauseum... lol...
Quoting 157. BahaHurican:

There's a reason why that used to be the Everglades once upon a time.... one weekend when I was in town I went out to Sawgrass Mills... stopped at a Walmart out on Griffin or something just before u get to I 75.... Took me about 40 minutes to drive back out to the coast that night the rain was so torrential. But near the airport it was practically dry. I'm always surprised one doesn't hear more about flooding in W Broward.


I know that Walmart. It is on Flamingo Road and Griffin.
Quoting 155. ncstorm:

12z Euro showing possible potential near Africa..weak but maybe the kickoff to the Cape Verde Season?


lol
Quoting LightningCharmer:
Stop taking the rain out of our thunder. Our storm embellishments are like a security blanket. :)

LOL. It is sometimes funny to read things like " Yikes! (a seemingly favored expression, second only to "Wow!). The sky is really dark and it looks like the clouds have rotation!! Perfect conditions for a tornado!!!". Many of us see the same kind of thing and think "Hum The sky is really dark. I wonder if we'll get any rain before that shelf cloud collapses?" Maybe because thunderstorms and tropical storms are about the only exciting weather events that ever happen in Florida, each one must be worse than anywhere else. It's a state pride kind of thing. :-)
Quoting 181. Gearsts:




If that wave would be more north it could have been at least some good news here as a moderate drought was declared.
Quoting 177. Grothar:



I know that Walmart. It is on Flamingo Road and Griffin.
That's the one.... Luckily it was fairly late, cause I drove back about 15 mph the whole way.... the road was practically underwater, and it didn't start raining until just before I got into the car.

Nowadays when I go out that way I find a place to have a coffee or something if I see it building up like that.... lol....
Quoting Grothar:


It was the warmest winter I can remember.

Coolest and wettest spring I can remember, following one of the coldest, snowiest winters my pipes and my newly purchased shovel and windshield scraper can remember as well. It was literally two months ago I was walking Radar dog while dressed in my parka at 6:00 at night before it got too cold. Now I walk him while dressed in shorts and a t-shirt at 11:00 at night, when it finally gets "cool" enough I don't fall over with heat prostration. Quite a change, and I still say it's not indicative of anything but a late fall El Nino at best.
98E looked pretty impressive this morning but it has hit a wall of shear and you can see the very poorly defined swirl shooting westward as the clouds blow back east, well done by the NHC not to jump on development of this.



Looks like both the Atlantic and East Pac will stay quiet for the next 5 days at least, perhaps for the next couple weeks or so. 09W will be the one to watch, still a pretty large amount of model discrepancy, the ECMWF continues to show basically nothing and the GFS has backed off quite a bit, but it still develops a pretty strong storm and it has shifted south, probably because of the weaker intensity. The 18z run drives a 951mb typhoon into the Philippines rather than up towards Taiwan and Japan. Strong storm, but a far cry from the 915mb storm it showed a day or two ago. Hopefully it keeps backing off. JTWC forecasts close to a Cat 3 equivalent in 5 days.

Quoting 184. sar2401:


Coolest and wettest spring I can remember, following one of the coldest, snowiest winters my pipes and my newly purchased shovel and windshield scraper can remember as well. It was literally two months ago I was walking Radar dog while dressed in my parka at 6:00 at night before it got too cold. Now I walk him while dressed in shorts and a t-shirt at 11:00 at night, when it finally gets "cool" enough I don't fall over with heat prostration. Quite a change, and I still say it's not indicative of anything but a late fall El Nino at best.

Pretty much sums it up.

(early winter 2014 that is)
Here's one of those classic instances where you say "if only a tropical storm was there to take advantage of the conditions currently in the Gulf we would have major storm"

Funny how when parts of the Atlantic are the most favorable, there's nothing there, and then when something finally decides to form and move into that area, it gets annihilated (Karen was a perfect example)
Quoting 174. LightningCharmer:

Stop taking the rain out of our thunder. Our storm embellishments are like a security blanket. :)


Maybe the radical amounts of some cloud-to-ground lightning in Fl could be why the storms seem so awesome there. In Navy bootcamp near Orlanda, years ago, I recall they had signs that told recruits to run to the nearest building if a storm came up -- even over the grass (which otherwise was never to be walked on by recruits).

However, in some western states, the thunderstorms can be magnificent in their grandeur, when seen from a distance, more often, IMO.
Quoting 188. opal92nwf:

Here's one of those classic instances where you say "if only a tropical storm was there to take advantage of the conditions currently in the Gulf we would have major storm"

Funny how when parts of the Atlantic are the most favorable, there's nothing there, and then when something finally decides to form and move into that area, it gets annihilated (Karen was a perfect example)



Don't jinx things. I notice the way the storms are cropping up near S TX, and if all that goes east too far from shore, it could spell trouble.
Quoting 159. floridaT:


the ground here in florida percolates very fast. my yard today as it was torrental rain had about 2 inches of water but as soon as rain slowed the standing water was gone in minuets. The bad side of this is in the winter I get a nice rain and the ground is all dried out in a matter of a couple days

Florida T!!!!!! Tough break with the Heat this year!
Check back in August. It's looking like July will be rather quiet in the basin. La Nina behavior in FL so far this summer. Rain a plenty.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Check back in August. It's looking like July will be rather quiet in the basin. La Nina behavior in FL so far this summer. Rain a plenty.


I thought El Nino's were the rainy ones? I recall 2010 and 2011 being rather dry in the summer, especially in June. This summer just has had a nonstop westerly flow.
Good evening fellow bloggers! It has been a wjile since I've been on Dr. Masters blog, how's everyone doing?

The central and eastern Caribbean is very dry at the moment, the last time it was as dry, may have been back in 2009. El nino like conditions are present, with strong upper level winds and high wind shear across muxh of the Caribbean.
196. FOREX
Quoting 191. WalkingInTheSun:



Don't jinx things. I notice the way the storms are cropping up near S TX, and if all that goes east too far from shore, it could spell trouble.


Strong high pressure should keep the eastern gulf storm free.
Quoting georgevandenberghe:


I'll just repeat my cynical observation that Cumulonimbus_missingus is one of the most
common summer cloud formations :-)
Haha. Love it. I put that in my blog "Summer is..." (fill in the blank). Gave you credit. Please let me know if the credit belongs elsewhere.
Good evening over there. It has been an interesting evening in Germany, weatherwise, as my town and region got one of those weird thunderstorms which currently move in from the northeast rather than from the southwest as they usually should. I took this little video some hours earlier when the shelfcloud passed our nearby cathedral in Mainz/Central Germany. Fortunately it wasn't a violent storm, as strong winds and hail were lacking. Got 22mm rain out of it, and overall my place collected nearly 70mm (2,75 inches) rain the last three days which is decent and welcome!



Link: Way more amazing pics of the same cloud, seen from a field near one of our suburb by one of the members of "my" German weatherblog.


Movement of those storms today (saved loop) - weather world upside down, lol.

-----

In comparison: this is a saved loop from July 6 with the normal movement of storms in western Europe, lol:

Gro: I know that Walmart. It is on Flamingo Road and Griffin.

Live in Pembroke Pines. I know that Walmart too. Been a soggy July so far this year.
Looks like a big one.








Quoting 199. Jessiej:

Gro: I know that Walmart. It is on Flamingo Road and Griffin.

Live in Pembroke Pines. I know that Walmart too. Been a soggy July so far this year.


I know the Pines well. Soggy it is.
00z Best Track up to 35kts.

09W NINE 140711 0000 12.0N 148.3E WPAC 35 996
Well, when I detected the site of SevereWeatherEu I promised to myself not to spam WU with all those stunning pics from European storm chasers which are collected there day by day. But there have to be some exceptions. Look at those pics below! More and more I'm convinced that countries adjacent of the east coast of the northern Adriatic Sea (in the Mediterranean) are the hot spot for European storm chasers!


Apocalyptic view over Osijek, Croatia today. Photo: Bruno Rastija via Crometeo


Mate Stipic sends us this spectacular photo of lenticularus clouds over Posusje, Bosnia & Herzegovina today - thank you! Source: Mate Stipic Photography

Well, I'm OT once again, sorry. Too tired to look for news about Neoguri and El Nino. Gooood night everybody!
Quoting nigel20:
Good evening fellow bloggers! It has been a wjile since I've been on Dr. Masters blog, how's everyone doing?

The central and eastern Caribbean is very dry at the moment, the last time it was as dry, may have been back in 2009. El nino like conditions are present, with strong upper level winds and high wind shear across muxh of the Caribbean.

Hi, Nigel, nice to see you again. How are things in general over in Jamaica? Very hot and dry here in Alabama as well. Nothing looks like it's going to happen in the Caribbean or Gulf for at least a couple of more weeks. I may melt by then, and lawn and flowers certainly will :-(
206. txjac
Quoting 205. sar2401:


Hi, Nigel, nice to see you again. How are things in general over in Jamaica? Very hot and dry here in Alabama as well. Nothing looks like it's going to happen in the Caribbean or Gulf for at least a couple of more weeks. I may melt by then, and lawn and flowers certainly will :-(


My week or so of clouds and occasional thunderstorms has come to an end ...
I feel for ya sar. We are getting warm/hot and sunny here too. I truly hope that you get some rain

Been a sad kind of day for me ...reading all of my friends comments on here has made it better. Thanks
Quoting nigel20:
Good evening fellow bloggers! It has been a wjile since I've been on Dr. Masters blog, how's everyone doing?

The central and eastern Caribbean is very dry at the moment, the last time it was as dry, may have been back in 2009. El nino like conditions are present, with strong upper level winds and high wind shear across muxh of the Caribbean.


Good to see you, Nigel.
Some welcomed showers today but not as heavy as they looked on the maps.
12mm overnight and a trace more today.
Every little bit helps%u2026...
Some of the coldest air ever in July is about to grip the Midwest and even the deep south.

40's for lows come wednesday night across the midwest.




Incredible!
These are highs next Tuesday!

210. txjac
STScott ....can you please make it dip more south?
Quoting sar2401:

Hi, Nigel, nice to see you again. How are things in general over in Jamaica? Very hot and dry here in Alabama as well. Nothing looks like it's going to happen in the Caribbean or Gulf for at least a couple of more weeks. I may melt by then, and lawn and flowers certainly will :-(


Hi sar!

Not much different drom the rest of the Caribbean. Vegetation is drying up, especially grass and shrubs. Water supply is almost at crisis levels, mostly in central and eastern areas. This is largely due to lower than normal rainfall between May and June.

Present drought conditions could impact on recent economic recorvery, the agriculture sector grew by 18% in the first quarter of this year, and approximately 10% in the december quarter of last year.
SUBJECT: Developed Low East Of Kanto [Ibaraki prefecture]

At 0:00 AM UTC, Low, Former Neoguri (990 hPa) located at 37.0N 142.0E. The low is reported as moving northeast at 25 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
300 NM from the center

This is the final tropical cyclone advisory from the Japan Meteorological Agency..
Quoting pottery:


Good to see you, Nigel.
Some welcomed showers today but not as heavy as they looked on the maps.
12mm overnight and a trace more today.
Every little bit helps%u2026...


Hi Pottery! We'll need significant rainfall to reduce or wipe our present rainfall deficit, but this is not likely before September.
Quoting 210. txjac:

STScott ....can you please make it dip more south?


Close but no cigar.

8.85" of rain so far in July in Longwood with much more coming.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09
9:00 AM JST July 11 2014
==================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Marianas Island

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 12.0N 148.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
==================
24 HRS: 12.7N 144.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marianas Islands
0300z warning by JTWC tracks towards Luzon as a 110kt Typhoon.

Quoting nigel20:


Hi Pottery! We'll need significant rainfall to reduce or wipe our present rainfall deficit, but this is not likely before September.

Sounds Dread !
Sorry to learn of the negative effects on the economy too.
Hoping you get some rain before long.
Hi Guys...


Looks like the only thing we'll get for a while is home grown.
Quoting 218. pottery:


Sounds Dread !
Sorry to learn of the negative effects on the economy too.
Hoping you get some rain before long.


Hi pottery. Earlier today a Moderate Drought was declared for parts of PR. The Gov says if by 30 days no big rains fill the lakes then water rationing will begin.
Quoting pottery:

Sounds Dread !
Sorry to learn of the negative effects on the economy too.
Hoping you get some rain before long.


Indeed! It's not that water is not available, but acess is a problem in some areas. In fact, most of our water resources are underutilized. Approximately 70% of Jamaica is made up of limestone.

We can limit the impact of drought conditions with more infrastructure (water) investments. For eastern areas, damming of the Bog Walk gorge would significantly improve water supply.
18z Navgem has a weak low pressure heading towards the Leeward Islands..and before anyone LOL and go stock up on water for their drought..Arthur was a 1016 low pressure..



Day 6 area on the SPC graphics... if this pans out Washi and Climate may have a stormy go at it.
Quoting 208. StormTrackerScott:

Some of the coldest air ever in July is about to grip the Midwest and even the deep south.

I wonder what this type of steering pattern means for tropical cyclones? I know July of 2004 had a cold spell in the Midwest.
Quoting 225. opal92nwf:


I wonder what this type of steering pattern means for tropical cyclones? I know July of 2004 had a cold spell in the Midwest.


Similar to 2004. Steering pattern that is. Question is can the Atlantic recover from all of this dry air & shear over the coming months.
Quoting 226. StormTrackerScott:



Similar to 2004. Steering pattern that is. Question is can the Atlantic recover from all of this dry air & shear over the coming months.


2004 map of all Atlantic tropical systems.

Waterspout off Cocoa Beach at 8:30pm

Storm pics from stormy Orlando.



Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Central Fort Myers got 3.30" of rain in about 1.5 hours (as reported by NBC-2 News).
I'm a little S.E. of the city and I only received .01" (basically a few sprinkles).

Just shows how some areas get blasted while other areas just down the road get nothing.

We did have 2 hours of non-stop thunder.


When my house was flooded with 5" of rain in 2.5 hours and 4" in an hour, my rental garden six miles north got only 0.5"
For more than four decades, the go-to for rating tornadoes has been the Fujita Scale, and in the last eight years, the Enhanced Fujita Scale, or EF Scale. Soon, scientists and NWS field teams will have a new and powerful benchmark by which to gauge the extreme winds in tornadoes and other severe wind events.

The American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) has approved the EF Scale Stakeholder Group%u2019s proposal to develop a new standard for estimating wind speeds in tornadoes. This standard will allow, for the first time, a rigorous process to improve not only the EF-scale but to adopt new methods to assign wind speed ratings to tornadic and other wind events.

The intent is to standardize methods. According to the ASCE blog, %u201CThe content of the standard would include improvements to the existing damage-based EF scale to address known problems and limitations.%u201D ASCE went on to state that the data used for estimating wind speeds would be archived.

The EF Scale Stakeholders Group, comprised of meteorologists, wind and structural engineers, a plant biologist, and a hydrologist, held a series of meetings over the past year to discuss methods available to provide wind speed estimations. The consensus among the group is that many methods exist in addition to that used in the EF Scale today. These include mobile Doppler radar, tree-fall pattern analysis, structural forensics, and in-situ measurements. The group also discussed ways that the EF Scale could be improved through the correction of current damage indicators and by adding new ones. The outcome of these discussions is available online.

The new standard will be housed under the Structural Engineering Institute (SEI) of the ASCE. Users of the standard include but are not limited to wind, structural, and forensic engineers, meteorologists, climatologists, forest biologists, risk analysts, emergency managers, building and infrastructure designers, and the media.

Interested parties are encouraged to apply to the committee, selecting Membership Category as either a General member with full voting privileges or as an Associate member with optional voting capabilities. Membership in ASCE is not required to serve on an ASCE Standards Committee.

The online application form to join the committee is available at http://www.asce.org/codes-standards/applicationfor m/.

The new committee will be chaired by Jim LaDue and co-chaired by Marc Levitan of the National Institute of Standards and Technology. For more information or questions about joining the committee, please contact us at james . g . ladue @ noaa . gov and marc . levitan @ nist . gov.

Link

TL;DR: Meteorologists will soon be able to rate tornadoes based on a variety of new methods, including mobile doppler radar; something I've argued about a lot over the past year.
Quoting nigel20:


Indeed! It's not that water is not available, but acess is a problem in some areas. In fact, most of our water resources are underutilized. Approximately 70% of Jamaica is made up of limestone.

We can limit the impact of drought conditions with more infrastructure (water) investments. For eastern areas, damming of the Bog Walk gorge would significantly improve water supply.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:




Hi pottery. Earlier today a Moderate Drought was declared for parts of PR. The Gov says if by 30 days no big rains fill the lakes then water rationing will begin.


Yeah, we are expecting rationing here too if things don't improve.
50% of our water is lost in the distribution system leaks, so there is work going on to solve that problem.
I had some very strong storms today here in St. Pete. The winds with the storm today were easily gusting to 45 mph, and possibly higher, and the lightning was constant. I also had a lot of rain with it, easily 2 inches.
PAGASA: Once Tropical Depression 09W enters the PAR it will be named “Glenda”.

TD09W







Quoting 229. StormTrackerScott:

Storm pics from stormy Orlando.

My sister says they have been getting storms basically everyday in Gainesville.
Neil deGrasse Tyson @neiltyson
Q: Where do Weather-weenies go to get a drink? A: The Iso-Bar
231. Hopefully, that'll put to rest the El Reno EF-3/EF-5 debate.
240. silas

Quoting georgevandenberghe:


When my house was flooded with 5" of rain in 2.5 hours and 4" in an hour, my rental garden six miles north got only 0.5"
Storms can be really odd like that. Last month there was an area about 4 miles from my house that had trees snapped in half (literally) and roofs ripped off barns from straight line winds and we probably didn't get a gust much more than 45mph.
The Japan Meteorological Agency officially declared #Neoguri an extratropical storm as of 9am Fri JST (8pm today US EDT) northeast of Tokyo.


Extratropical cyclone
40 minutes announced 09 am July 11, 2014


Size -
Strength -
Extratropical cyclone
Existence region East of Kanto
Center position 00 minutes north latitude 37 degrees (37.0 degrees)
00 minutes 142 degrees east longitude (142.0 degrees)
Direction of travel, speed NE 45km / h (25kt)
Central pressure 990hPa


tropical cyclone
25 minutes presentation 10:00 July 11, 2014


Size -
Strength -
Tropical cyclone
Existence region Mariana Islands
Center position 00 minutes north latitude 12 degrees (12.0 degrees)
20 minutes 148 degrees east longitude (148.3 degrees)
Direction of travel, speed West 20km / h (10kt)
Central pressure 1006hPa
The maximum wind speed near the center 15m / s (30kt)
Maximum instantaneous wind speed 23m / s (45kt)
tropical storm Nine why no name
Quoting 236. AussieStorm:

PAGASA: Once Tropical Depression 09W enters the PAR it will be named “Glenda”.

Looks just like a healthy Cape Verde system.


still high wind shear in the Caribbean its been going on for 8 weeks going on 9 weeks soon!
Some fairly frequent lightning with that band in "The Seat" of Lousiana and southern Miss. This is a lightning density map from StrikeStarUS, with the key on the side of the map.

10 injured this morning in Virginia Beach after the storms. Fairly impressive based on ground footage.

Link
Quoting 234. AussieStorm:

Tacloban: seven months on from Typhoon Haiyan



Typhoon Neoguri threatens Fukushima plant




Hopefully southern Philippines will get a break from tropical systems this year. First Bopha in 2012, then Haiyan last year. They really don't need another hit there, even by a weak system.
*Alluding to my post before I went to work...

That seems more like it. Evening all.

Quoting 236. AussieStorm:




Looks healthy.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Some of the coldest air ever in July is about to grip the Midwest and even the deep south.40's for lows come wednesday night across the midwest.
Incredible!

Scott, the first graph is the probability of temperatures above or below normal. The menacing dark blue area has nothing to do with the actual cold temperatures, it just shows the confidence level the WPC/GFS has in below normal temperatures. In this case, it's about 70-80% in the Midwest with lower confidence elsewhere in the east. There's nothing on that graphic to suggest that "the coldest air ever in July" is about to grip the Midwest, or anywhere else. All WPC needs is temperatures to come in one degree below normal for that map to verify.

The second map is for forecast temperatures at 0100 CDT, 0200 EDT next Thursday. One would expect temperatures to be nearing overnight lows by then. You've used this type of map before. The temperatures are just laid out in a grid with no regard to cities or geography. As such, it has some wildly inaccurate results. For example, it shows a temperature of 47 somewhere near Chicago while northern Ontario, where the cold air is originating, is between 49 and 55. The temperature around Toledo OH shows 56 while the record low for July 17 is 47. It shows the temperature near my house at 67, which would be pleasant compared to what we've had, but nowhere near the low of 62. Just go to some of the local WSO's and see how many are predicting record low temperatures for July 16 or July 17.

Suffice to say that the prediction for six days from now is that it will be much cooler with the possibility of a few records. That's a lot more accurate than a headline like "Coldest Air Ever in July About to Grip the Midwest and Deep South". Leave that for the newspapers at the checkout counter at the grocery store.
Quoting 238. CybrTeddy:

Neil deGrasse Tyson @neiltyson
Q: Where do Weather-weenies go to get a drink? A: The Iso-Bar


Lol, sheesh, don't try so hard next time Teddy!
On July 16 1967 it fell to 57 in Tallahassee and the record low for the state of Florida in July was set--49 degrees.

Other records set in the mid 1967 July cold wave

San Antonio, 62 (daily low)
Atlanta, 53, (monthly record)
Montgomery AL, 61 (daily record)
Asheville, NC 46 (second coldest for July)
Mobile, AL 62 (monthly record)
Pensacola FL, 61 (monthly record)
Meridian, MS 55 (monthly record)
Baton Rouge, LA 59 (monthly record)
New Orleans, LA 60 (monthly record)
Athens, GA 55 (monthly record)
Macon, GA 56 (monthly record)
Quoting 249. GatorWX:

*Alluding to my post before I went to work...

That seems more like it. Evening all.


This is not looking so good for the Philippines....
@sar,

To add to your lengthy statement, I compared my climate data to what the NWS is forecasting (which is 6-8 degrees higher than the GFS), and i found that the lows are about average, to a little below average, and the high temps are a little below average as well, but not close to be bringing out "record cold across large swath of US!!!" headlines. Not yet.

And Nashville ain't Deep South, either. So, this front will bring refreshing temperatures, but the temperatures won't be that cold, more like "seasonable".
Quoting 255. DonnieBwkGA:

On July 16 1967 it fell to 57 in Tallahassee and the record low for the state of Florida in July was set--49 degrees.


Wow. Record low for here (for month of July) is 51 degrees on July 23, 1947. How'd all that cold air sneak by TN and into Florida?
Hmmm.... sounds like we're getting a bit of a shower right now... wasn't expecting that.
Quoting 253. sar2401:


Scott, the first graph is the probability of temperatures above or below normal. The menacing dark blue area has nothing to do with the actual cold temperatures, it just shows the confidence level the WPC/GFS has in below normal temperatures. In this case, it's about 70-80% in the Midwest with lower confidence elsewhere in the east. There's nothing on that graphic to suggest that "the coldest air ever in July" is about to grip the Midwest, or anywhere else. All WPC needs is temperatures to come in one degree below normal for that map to verify.

The second map is for forecast temperatures at 0100 CDT, 0200 EDT next Thursday. One would expect temperatures to be nearing overnight lows by then. You've used this type of map before. The temperatures are just laid out in a grid with no regard to cities or geography. As such, it has some wildly inaccurate results. For example, it shows a temperature of 47 somewhere near Chicago while northern Ontario, where the cold air is originating, is between 49 and 55. The temperature around Toledo OH shows 56 while the record low for July 17 is 47. It shows the temperature near my house at 67, which would be pleasant compared to what we've had, but nowhere near the low of 62. Just go to some of the local WSO's and see how many are predicting record low temperatures for July 16 or July 17.

Suffice to say that the prediction for six days from now is that it will be much cooler with the possibility of a few records. That's a lot more accurate than a headline like "Coldest Air Ever in July About to Grip the Midwest and Deep South". Leave that for the newspapers at the checkout counter at the grocery store.


I agree he over-hypes sometimes, but this will be a significant event for them, up there, for the season. You seem to really have it out for this guy. I'm not trying to really criticize you, but just pointing it out. It becomes belittling with continuation. I hope I don't sound like DeepSea right now lol. I love your posts Sar. Believe that I do. Don't make yourself vulnerable. My point here is it's easier to be ignorant of certain aspects of society and yet be productive. You're productive. Stay that way. Realization is realized with those who realize. Not everything must be pointed out. Scott, I enjoy your posts equally. I read all of them. As is true for anyone or with anything, I take everything with a grain of salt and do my own analytically homework. Keep posting guys.
Quoting 256. BahaHurican:

This is not looking so good for the Philippines....


No, it is not. It's my assumption atm this is still fairly conservative a forecast. Not sure of a Haiyan type system, but a very serious typhoon seems to be plausibly in the works.
Quoting Envoirment:


Hopefully southern Philippines will get a break from tropical systems this year. First Bopha in 2012, then Haiyan last year. They really don't need another hit there, even by a weak system.


They have had hits already this year from weak systems, even last year after Haiyan there was another hit.
Quoting 263. AussieStorm:



They have had hits already this year from weak systems, even last year after Haiyan there was another hit.


the Phillipines always gets hit a lot. It is the nature of its location, and of the West Pacific Typhoon season in general
Quoting 261. AussieStorm:








trusting the CMC is not a good idea
Screw this polar vortex. We've had a good longwave pattern so far, and the models show zonal flow redeveloping in its wake, which is good. This better not be the beginning of the east coast trough again, lol. It's expected during El Nino/warm neutral years, so it may only be a matter of time, but...
Quoting nwobilderburg:


trusting the CMC is not a good idea


I have never trusted the CMC. Causes More Chaos

Quoting 264. nwobilderburg:



the Phillipines always gets hit a lot. It is the nature of its location, and of the West Pacific Typhoon season in general
Yeah. The subtropical ridge is in a position to where it's kind of like the Florida (before the current hurricane drought, that is) of the WPAC.

That and Guam.
Quoting 263. AussieStorm:



They have had hits already this year from weak systems, even last year after Haiyan there was another hit.


Unfortunately so. Lingling did quite a bit of damage and killed 70 people too. I couldn't imagine what damage another strong system would do.

The current system reminds me of Typhoon Utor from last year. It peaked at a Category 4 system when it made landfall in northern Philippines, but it didn't cause too much damage ($24 million). It did kill 14 people though. Hopefully this system will be similar in terms of low damage, but this time without any deaths.
Quoting Envoirment:


Unfortunately so. Lingling did quite a bit of damage and killed 70 people too. I couldn't imagine what damage another strong system would do.

The current system reminds me of Typhoon Utor from last year. It peaked at a Category 4 system when it made landfall in northern Philippines, but it didn't cause too much damage ($24 million). It did kill 14 people though. Hopefully this system will be similar in terms of low damage, but this time without any deaths.


But remember,,, it's a long way from the current models having it making landfall in Northern Luzon. The track could move more north, hopefully, or it could move more south, No thanks.
Quoting 264. nwobilderburg:



the Phillipines always gets hit a lot. It is the nature of its location, and of the West Pacific Typhoon season in general


While that's true, getting hit by 2 category 5 storms 2 years in a row in very similar places is a very rare occurence, even for The Philippines. Especially as one of those was one of the most intense landfalling tropical cyclones in recorded history (Haiyan).
Quoting 265. nwobilderburg:



trusting the CMC is not a good idea


Constantly Making Cyclones.

Hey, isn't the MJO supposed to be strong in the WATL right now?
Quoting 270. AussieStorm:



But remember,,, it's a long way from the current models having it making landfall in Northern Luzon. The track could move more north, hopefully, or it could move more south, No thanks.


I think the models have a good latch on it now. Early on the models were all over the place. CMC had it hitting Japan, then Taiwan. The GFS had it taking the same path as Neoguri but going north into South Korea/North Korea/China rather than curving into mainland Japan. Hopefully it'll go further north and miss the Philippines. But if it does, it'll likely hit China as a strong system, as temperatures in the South China Sea are very warm. Kind of a lose-lose sistuation whatever track it takes really. Would be nice if we could dump the current shear in the Atlantic ahead of the storm to kill it off, while giving conditions for a TW to form into a weak TS to give rain to some of those that need it.
Quoting 265. nwobilderburg:



trusting the CMC is not a good idea


I think the CMC is fine for 5 days out, but not the long range for sure. Although the same could be said with the GFS to some extent and that Western Caribbean storm we're still waiting for. ;)
Quoting 268. KoritheMan:


Yeah. The subtropical ridge is in a position to where it's kind of like the Florida (before the current hurricane drought, that is) of the WPAC.

That and Guam.



well Phillipines also sticks out, and helps to protect Vietnam and south China a bit
A two-tonne piece of a Russian rocket burns up over Eastern Australia caught on camera.





Despite impressive outflow in the western semicircle, 09W/Rammasun isn't looking so impressive right now, with an exposed low-level circulation northeast of the convective mass due to shear. There's also some dry air around. Only steady intensification at best for the next few days.

Quoting GatorWX:


I agree he over-hypes sometimes, but this will be a significant event for them, up there, for the season. You seem to really have it out for this guy. I'm not trying to really criticize you, but just pointing it out. It becomes belittling with continuation. I hope I don't sound like DeepSea right now lol. I love your posts Sar. Believe that I do. Don't make yourself vulnerable. My point here is it's easier to be ignorant of certain aspects of society and yet be productive. You're productive. Stay that way. Realization is realized with those who realize. Not everything must be pointed out. Scott, I enjoy your posts equally. I read all of them. As is true for anyone or with anything, I take everything with a grain of salt and do my own analytically homework. Keep posting guys.

I don't have it out for him. This is probably the first post I've made about anything he wrote in a week. I'm pointing out that what he said isn't backed up by the charts he posted. Even if he wants to hype, at least understand what charts you're posting. If your chart doesn't match the headline, find one that does or leave them out. People here have no problem, nor do I expect them to, pointing out when I have misread a chart. If you post a chart that doesn't match what you write, would you expect people to just shrug? That hasn't been my experience here or at other internet blogs. If you want to post something that's 6 days off as a certainty, you've made yourself vulnerable to correction, not me.

I grew up in Cleveland. This is not a big deal event for the Midwest. No one is going to freeze. We'd have lows in the 40's and highs in the 60's at least once a summer, sometimes more. I posted that factual information earlier. A lot of what Scott posts is good stuff...until he gets into the arm flapping hype stage. If anyone chooses to do that, they can expect to called on it. It's the nature of making that type of public prediction.
Quoting 235. StPetersburgFL:

I had some very strong storms today here in St. Pete. The winds with the storm today were easily gusting to 45 mph, and possibly higher, and the lightning was constant. I also had a lot of rain with it, easily 2 inches.


Same thing here in Central Pinellas, we got nailed today, and it was well needed. Yesterday was even worse here though.
Quoting Astrometeor:
@sar,

To add to your lengthy statement, I compared my climate data to what the NWS is forecasting (which is 6-8 degrees higher than the GFS), and i found that the lows are about average, to a little below average, and the high temps are a little below average as well, but not close to be bringing out "record cold across large swath of US!!!" headlines. Not yet.

And Nashville ain't Deep South, either. So, this front will bring refreshing temperatures, but the temperatures won't be that cold, more like "seasonable".

Yeah, the Boys in Birmingham are predicting a low of 67 for Thursday morning and a high of 90 for Thursday. The 67 would be nice compared to what we'v had but the average low is 68. The average high is 89, so the "polar vortex" will bring us air that exactly seasonable. I'll take it but it's unlikely that it's going to be a record 62 low. The WPC/GFS isn't all that good at predicting temperatures or precipitation, so we'll see what next Thursday actually brings.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Same thing here in Central Pinellas, we got nailed today, and it was well needed. Yesterday was even worse here though.

We had a lousy 0.01" from a near miss on a thunderstorm, with only one clap of thunder. That brings me up to 0.02" for the month. Woo-hoo. :-)
Quoting 261. AussieStorm:



If that happened in the Atlantic I think WU would crash. I can't imagine what that would look like on satellite.

However the GFS has TS9 making landfall at 931 pressure? It acts as if it strengthens with it interacting land which I would think wouldn't happen. If it did jeez...




Quoting sar2401:

Not sure were you live in FL, but east on Naples, we have been getting an average of 1/2"  to 1" daily. Sometimes more. 
Also, I grew up in central WI. On June 1st, around 1978, it actually snowed!

Quoting 180. sar2401:


LOL. It is sometimes funny to read things like " Yikes! (a seemingly favored expression, second only to "Wow!). The sky is really dark and it looks like the clouds have rotation!! Perfect conditions for a tornado!!!". Many of us see the same kind of thing and think "Hum The sky is really dark. I wonder if we'll get any rain before that shelf cloud collapses?" Maybe because thunderstorms and tropical storms are about the only exciting weather events that ever happen in Florida, each one must be worse than anywhere else. It's a state pride kind of thing. :-)


I must disagree. I will with pride get excited about any average thunderstorm no matter where I am, not just FL, its just I've spent most of my life here.

However, after experiencing thunderstorms in many parts of the country, most places they are a bit more lame on average from my experience compared to here. I have family the comes down to Florida as well from states like Michigan, Ohio, and PA and they also think thunderstorms are over hyped up north with all the watch boxes, when typical thunderstorms down here seem worse to them.

Now I'm not saying there isn't variance, strong thunderstorms can indeed be experienced in most of the U.S. and even into Canada. One of the worst thunderstorms I got caught in was on a family trip in west Louisiana in Late may at night on I-10 ahead of strong cold front, some other really memorable ones was a terrible thunderstorm in Central Texas, and very strong winds from a thunderstorm made driving difficult once for us in Kentucky.

However, in general, my experience is that the average thunderstorm is worse here, and when they do go severe, they seem epically worse than other severe thunderstorms I've been in in other areas, even if there isn't major damage.

My hypothesis is that most of our rainy season thunderstorms are not enhanced by disturbances, including jet dynamics and such, so their intensity is simply the strength of cell itself. Whereas severe weather dynamics enhances convection and gives it severe criteria that would normally not exist.

For example, severe thunderstorms in the Spring and Winter here often have more of the feel of what I've experienced further north, frontally generated severe thunderstorms that go severe due to dynamics often don't feel as bad and feel a bit hyped compared to tropical airmass thunderstorms in the summer.

The one exception to that is the Southern Plains and deep South during severe weather season, I have seen some downright terrible thunderstorms, that just have to be seen and felt, videos and photos don't do justice.

BTW, one tricky thing about the summer thunderstorms here, is while we don't get watch boxes, and warnings are often isolated, over the course of the summer, its common to experience a damaging thunderstorm locally at least on few occasions as the many days of thunderstorms pass by.

For example, over the last 5-10 years there have been in my local area, quite few damaging wind gust events and tornado events from summer thunderstorms and damage right in my community. As I said, he chances on any given day are low as they are isolated, but eventually you get them here, and it is often excitingly surprising since there is no buildup or way of expecting them.
Quoting WIBadgerWeather:
10 injured this morning in Virginia Beach after the storms. Fairly impressive based on ground footage.

Link
Looks like some pretty powerful straight line winds or maybe a microburst. Do you know what time this happened?
Quoting SouthCentralTx:



If that happened in the Atlantic I think WU would crash. I can't imagine what that would look like on satellite.

However the GFS has TS9 making landfall at 931 pressure? It acts as if it strengthens with it interacting land which I would think wouldn't happen. If it did jeez...





The trend is more west from the GFS.

MJO Currently over in West Pacific and 2 storms back to back and maybe a 3rd possible. Anyone keeping tabs on how good or poor the MJO predictions have been the last 2 months? If this chart is correct, MJO on it's way to the East Pacific and into Atlantic Basin.

Quoting Jedkins01:


I must disagree. I will with pride get excited about any average thunderstorm no matter where I am, not just FL.

However, after experiencing thunderstorms in many parts of the country, most places they or more lame from my experience compared to here. I have family the comes down to Florida as well from states like Michigan, Ohio, and PA and they also think thunderstorms are over hyped up north with all the watch boxes, when typical thunderstorms down here seem worse to them.

Now I'm not saying there isn't variance, strong thunderstorms can indeed be experienced in most of the U.S. and even into Canada. One of the worst thunderstorms I got caught in was on a family trip in west Louisiana in Late may at night on I-10 ahead of strong cold front.

However, in general, my experience is that the average thunderstorm is worse here, and when they do go severe, they seem epically worse than other severe thunderstorms I've been in in other areas, even if there isn't major damage.

My hypothesis is that most of our rainy season thunderstorms are not enhanced by disturbances, just dynamics and such, so their intensity is simply the strength of cell itself. Whereas severe weather dynamics enhances convection and gives it severe criteria that would normally not exist.

For example, severe thunderstorms in the Spring and Winter here often have more of the feel of what I've experienced further north, frontally generated severe thunderstorms that go severe due to dynamics often don't feel as bad and feel a bit hyped compared to tropical airmass thunderstorms in the summer.

The one exception to that is the Southern Plains and deep South during severe weather season, I have seen some downright terrible thunderstorms, that just have to be seen and felt, videos and photos don't do justice.

BTW, one tricky thing about the summer thunderstorms here, is while we don't get watch boxes, and warnings are often isolated, over the course of the summer, its common to experience a damaging thunderstorm locally at least on few occasions as the many days of thunderstorms pass by.

For example, over the last 5-10 years there have been in my local area, quite few damaging wind gust events and tornado events from summer thunderstorms and damage right in my community. As I said, he chances on any given day are low as they are isolated, but eventually you get them here, and it is often excitingly surprising since there is no buildup or way of expecting them.

You'll have to come up here and see a few of our thunderstorms then. I've been in Florida and Alabama thunderstorms and I think they are about equally bad. What's different about Florida storms is the prolonged, intense rain. We get heavy rain for maybe 15 minutes and then it's pretty much over. I was in Tampa once and there was a thunderstorm that had 45 solid minutes of torrential rain the entire time. I'd guess there must have been 3-4" of rain out of it, while our more intense storms might give us an inch. We'd have some serious street and small creek flooding with that kind of storm. Having grown up in Ohio and lived in California, I'd have to agree that those non-"tropical" thunderstorms are kind of wimpy by comparison. The one thing we have worse is winds. Even though it's windy in Florida storms, you don't get the kind of sustained high winds we do. It seems like your storms are fairly fast moving as a rule. We get slow moving, training storms, and winds really beat things up. I've lost one big tree and half another large tree this year and we haven't even had any of our intense squall lines yet.
290. flsky
Damn! Scott, did you take these??
Quoting 229. StormTrackerScott:

Storm pics from stormy Orlando.




Quoting 285. sar2401:

Looks like some pretty powerful straight line winds or maybe a microburst. Do you know what time this happened?


Probably a microburst, storms weren't set up to produce strong straight line winds. Today was supposed to be only a heavy rain event. The storms that moved through had little to no wind with them.
Quoting swflurker:
Not sure were you live in FL, but east on Naples, we have been getting an average of 1/2" to 1" daily. Sometimes more.
Also, I grew up in central WI. On June 1st, around 1978, it actually snowed!


I live in Eufaula AL. With the new site, you have to be careful to type outside the quote box or your reply wipes out the quote and nothing you typed shows up when I quote you. I fixed it for you. Very user friendly site. :-)

You can direct a little of that rain up here if you wish. We'll be glad to take it off your hands. :-) Snowfall is a little better in Cleveland. The earliest first snowfall was October 8 and the latest snowfall was May 10. There were years I thought it would never stop snowing but thankfully, it wasn't true.

Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Medication time?...........hehehehe

Yes. I'll Fed Ex him some overnight. :-)
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Probably a microburst, storms weren't set up to produce strong straight line winds. Today was supposed to be only a heavy rain event. The storms that moved through had little to no wind with them.

I didn't think I read about any big concerns for the Virginia Beach area this morning so I'm surprised this happened.
Quoting 293. sar2401:


Yes. I'll Fed Ex him some overnight. :-)


LOL
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
For more than four decades, the go-to for rating tornadoes has been the Fujita Scale, and in the last eight years, the Enhanced Fujita Scale, or EF Scale. Soon, scientists and NWS field teams will have a new and powerful benchmark by which to gauge the extreme winds in tornadoes and other severe wind events.

The American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) has approved the EF Scale Stakeholder Group%u2019s proposal to develop a new standard for estimating wind speeds in tornadoes. This standard will allow, for the first time, a rigorous process to improve not only the EF-scale but to adopt new methods to assign wind speed ratings to tornadic and other wind events.

The intent is to standardize methods. According to the ASCE blog, %u201CThe content of the standard would include improvements to the existing damage-based EF scale to address known problems and limitations.%u201D ASCE went on to state that the data used for estimating wind speeds would be archived.

The EF Scale Stakeholders Group, comprised of meteorologists, wind and structural engineers, a plant biologist, and a hydrologist, held a series of meetings over the past year to discuss methods available to provide wind speed estimations. The consensus among the group is that many methods exist in addition to that used in the EF Scale today. These include mobile Doppler radar, tree-fall pattern analysis, structural forensics, and in-situ measurements. The group also discussed ways that the EF Scale could be improved through the correction of current damage indicators and by adding new ones. The outcome of these discussions is available online.

The new standard will be housed under the Structural Engineering Institute (SEI) of the ASCE. Users of the standard include but are not limited to wind, structural, and forensic engineers, meteorologists, climatologists, forest biologists, risk analysts, emergency managers, building and infrastructure designers, and the media.

Interested parties are encouraged to apply to the committee, selecting Membership Category as either a General member with full voting privileges or as an Associate member with optional voting capabilities. Membership in ASCE is not required to serve on an ASCE Standards Committee.

The online application form to join the committee is available at http://www.asce.org/codes-standards/applicationfor m/.

The new committee will be chaired by Jim LaDue and co-chaired by Marc Levitan of the National Institute of Standards and Technology. For more information or questions about joining the committee, please contact us at james . g . ladue @ noaa . gov and marc . levitan @ nist . gov.

Link

TL;DR: Meteorologists will soon be able to rate tornadoes based on a variety of new methods, including mobile doppler radar; something I've argued about a lot over the past year.

Thanks for posting that, TA. Since I have 27 years of experience in search and rescue/emergency management, I'm going to send in my application. I don't really think they'll want a retired dinosaur but at least they wouldn't have to hear me whine I don't have time to attend meetings. :-) The only problem is that this comes under the auspices of NIST. NIST is considered kind of a joke among organizations who've used them to write standards and procedures. Maybe it's gotten better in the nine years I've been out of the business. I hope so, or this initiative isn't going anywhere.
297. JLPR2
I'm a happy camper :)


Now send me more or less 4 areas like this and I will call the TW a success.
Northeastern-central & south PR are officially in a D1-Moderate drought.
Quoting 279. Jedkins01:



Same thing here in Central Pinellas, we got nailed today, and it was well needed. Yesterday was even worse here though.


Yesterday (now 2 days ago since it is post midnight) was not as bad for my area with the exception of strong winds coming out of the storm over you, which was very impressive.
299. DDR
Quoting JLPR2:
I'm a happy camper :)


Now send me more or less 4 areas like this and I will call the TW a success.
Northeastern-central & south PR are officially in a D1-Moderate drought.

Decent shower for sure,theres been over 2 inches of rain here the past 48 hours,with more on th way,mr itcz will be my best friend for the next week or so.
300. beell
oops
Oh dear.

Good morning all. Just when one thinks the general public is becoming more educated about tropical weather, one discovers authors, publishers and proofreaders know crap all about simple things like the basic geography of the Caribbean or the behaviour and treatment of tropical cyclones in the ATL....

So here's a novel, just out in April of this year, apparently, in which a tropical cyclone is central to the plot of the story. The novel is set in St. Vincent so this is a viable plot line. However, writer has the crew of a salvage boat
1) getting info from the "BWS" instead of the NHC
2) tracking a named storm which is scheduled to "hitting Venezuela and skimming along to us"
3) getting hit by a named storm [Davida] which is only a tropical depression but which "might blow right past tropical storm and into Category One".
4) thinking that all hurricanes still receive only female names
5) still out on the water less than "24 hours before the center passes".

What really really bugs me is this information is so readily available in a modern world. The author has a webpage and a FB page, but can't google his/her way to correct information about tropical cyclones, or even the location of St. Vincent? This is beyond pitiful.

I borrowed this book from a friend to read over the holiday [we had Independence Day yesterday, whoohoo!] and I am soooo glad I didn't spend my $$ on this .... [ahem].

[goes away muttering underbreath]
Well dang Baha...what's the name of the book?

Quoting 268. KoritheMan:


Yeah. The subtropical ridge is in a position to where it's kind of like the Florida (before the current hurricane drought, that is) of the WPAC.

That and Guam.

Guam is more like the Lesser Antilles. Born to be hit by something.... while it's forming.

Quoting 302. Randrewl:

Well dang Baha...what's the name of the book?


"Night Diver". Elizabeth Lowell. I've put it down. With those kinds of basic errors in the geography, I am much less inclined to suspend belief on all the diving minutiae included in the book.
"Night Diver". Elizabeth Lowell. I've put it down. With those kinds of basic errors in the geography, I am much less inclined to suspend belief on all the diving minutiae included in the book.

I understand, but it's a fictional book so who really cares?

Kinda fun to read one of those sometimes. thanks.

Quoting BahaHurican:
Guam is more like the Lesser Antilles. Born to be hit by something.... while it's forming.

"Night Diver". Elizabeth Lowell. I've put it down. With those kinds of basic errors in the geography, I am much less inclined to suspend belief on all the diving minutiae included in the book.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Guam is more like the Lesser Antilles. Born to be hit by something.... while it's forming.

"Night Diver". Elizabeth Lowell. I've put it down. With those kinds of basic errors in the geography, I am much less inclined to suspend belief on all the diving minutiae included in the book.


Yeah, Guam is well south of S. Florida.

Miami - 25.78 N
Guam - 13.28 N

I've always wondered how many hurricanes would make landfall each year if the U.S. was just a little further east. Each year we usually have several hurricanes that make that right turn right before they get to the U.S.
The Eastcoast has lots of close calls or near misses just offshore.

Quoting 305. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, Guam is well south of S. Florida.

Miami - 25.78 N
Guam - 13.28 N

I've always wondered how many hurricanes would make landfall each year if the U.S. was just a little further East. Each year we usually have several hurricanes that make that right turn right before they get to the U.S.
The Eastcoast has lots of close calls or near misses just offshore.


if North America were further east, the storms would recurve further east. The continent's influence on troughs and highs is what acts as a shield against storms, not it's degree of longitude. Notice how westward moving storms in every basin tend to recurve as they approach a large landmass to their west.
Good Morning. On the Florida/SE T-storm issue, you get used to them every Summer, but they are quite the eye-opener for tourists or others not used to the brief periods of intense rain and lightening. I have mentioned that I was in Orlando for a conference several years ago, chilling by the pool, when everyone had to leave/take cover when a strong T-storm (typical summer afternoon boomer) came through. It only lasted 30 minutes but the German family on vacation that was next to me kept asking if this was a Florida "Hurricane"....................................... ....... :)

On the local tropical front, Atlantic clear and the E-Pac ITCZ appears to be very healthy but no NHC crayons:

gulf stream helps deflect some storms too
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Morning folks. Bring on some drier air! WU says 97% RH right now, 75 F DP. It's been sticky outside to say the least.