WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Neoguri Weakens to a Tropical Storm, Brings Torrential Rains to Japan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:32 PM GMT on July 09, 2014

Tropical Storm Neoguri continues its steady weakening trend as it closes in on the large southern Japanese island of Kyushu. Landfall of the center is expected to occur near 6 am local time on Thursday (Wednesday night in the U.S.) Once a mighty super typhoon with 155 mph winds, Neoguri has now weakened to a tropical storm with 70 mph winds as of 11 am EDT on Wednesday. Satellite images Wednesday morning showed a continued deterioration of Neoguri's heavy thunderstorms as high wind shear of 20 knots tore at the storm and the storm moved over cooler sea surface temperatures. Neoguri passed through Japan's Ryukyu Islands on Monday, killing two people and injuring 30. Japan Meteorological Agency radar showed that very heavy rains of up to two inches per hour (50.8 mm/hr) were affecting southern Kyushu Wednesday night local time (Wednesday morning EDT), and Tahiro recorded 55 mm (2.16") in the two hours ending at 10 pm local time on Wednesday. Some mountainous areas of southern Japan are predicted to receive 20 - 28" of rain from Neoguri. With soils already saturated from a week of heavy rains prior to Neoguri's arrival, damaging flooding is expected.


Figure 1. ESA astronaut Alexander Gerst tweeted this photo of Typhoon Neoguri at 22 UTC July 8, 2014. At the time, Neoguri was a weakening Category 2 typhoon with 100 mph winds.


Figure 2. Radar image of rains from Neoguri affecting southern Japan, at 10:50 pm local time Wednesday, July 9, 2014. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.

Links
Japanese radar
Official Neoguri forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency

Impact of Neoguri on U.S. weather
While the remnants of Typhoon Neoguri will not impact the U.S. directly, the large and powerful nature of this storm has set in motion a chain-reaction set of events that will dramatically alter the path of the jet stream and affect weather patterns across the entire Northern Hemisphere next week. Neoguri will cause an acceleration of the North Pacific jet stream, causing a large amount of warm, moist tropical air to push over the North Pacific. This will amplify a trough low pressure over Alaska, causing a ripple effect in the jet stream over western North America, where a strong ridge of high pressure will develop, and over the Midwestern U.S., where a strong trough of low pressure will form. This jet stream pattern is similar to the nasty"Polar Vortex" pattern that set up during the winter of 2014 over North America, and will cause an unusually cool third week of July over the portions of the Midwest and Ohio Valley, with temperatures 10 - 20°F below average.



Figure 3. One-week forecast for the departure of surface temperature from average for July 16, 2014, as predicted by the GFS model at 00 UTC July 9, 2014. A strong trough of low pressure is predicted to form over the Midwest U.S., bringing temperatures 10 - 20°F below average. Data/image obtained using Climate Reanalyzer™ (http://cci-reanalyzer.org), Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, Orono, Maine.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Jeff...
Impact of Neoguri on U.S. weather

won't it also have a favorable effect concerning el nino?
Thank you Dr. Masters...Terrible fatal storms in New York yesterday...Very sad.
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters. Hopefully we will not re-enter the twilight zone with this blog.
good to see that neoguri is weaker

SOLAR FLARE ERUPTS FROM UNEXPECTED SOURCE: Yesterday, July 8th, Earth-orbiting satellites detected a strong M6-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash. X-ray and UV radiation from the flare sent waves of ionization coursing through Earth's upper atmosphere. This briefly disturbed the propagation of shortwave radio transmissions around the dayside of our planet, especially over Europe and North America. Conditions have since returned to normal.
Good Morning Doc and everyone. Look at the position of the ridge in the Atlantic, nearly dead center. Tells me there could be some long track Cape Verde storms this season.
Thanks Dr. Masters
The next WPAC storm will be one to watch, looks like it'll be smaller than Neoguri was.
a few weeks ago, I made reference to the inconsistency of the ESNO models and the predictions to an El Nino event this summer and fall. it now appears that the prediction could be a bust. What this means, is that the previous low forecast for this hurricane season may have to be altered, since the forecast for a below average season was based primarily on the assumption, that an El Nino event would be in place.
the tropical wave is soon to begin. a strong wave should exit the African coast on Friday and should be a significant rain maker for the lesser Antilles next Friday..Computer mode do not develop this system.
Thanks Doc..Interesting pattern setting up for next week.
Quoting ricderr:
Impact of Neoguri on U.S. weather

won't it also have a favorable effect concerning el nino?


Hmmm, but we wont be having an El Nino til at least October now if these numbers hold up. We may not even have one at all! Get the crow ready Ric :o)
Good Morning All,
Just checking in to see if anything coming or going to form over the next week or so.... Looks to be quite for now.
Maybe by the end of the month to the first of August could get some action.... We'll have to wait and see....


Yall have a Great day

Taco :o)
Quoting 9. stoormfury:

a few weeks ago, I made reference to the inconsistency of the ESNO models and the predictions to an El Nino event this summer and fall. it now appears that the prediction could be a bust. What this means, is that the previous low forecast for this hurricane season may have to be altered, since the forecast for a below average season was based primarily on the assumption, that an El Nino event would be in place.
Regardless of El Nino or not, we have more immediate concerns. The SAL. Until this pushes out of the way or thins out, don't look for any development off the coast of Africa anytime soon.

I'll give 2014 this, extremely impressive amounts of TCHP, especially in the GOMEX. Anything that gets in there this season if shear abates for long enough has plenty of fuel to work with. I can't find a year at this point where TCHP was this high.



Compared to 2013.



And to the last "hyperactive" hurricane season, 2010.

quite agree with the dense SAL all over the MDR but this customary during the month of July. this will gradually dis appear as the month of July moves on
Quoting 9. stoormfury:

a few weeks ago, I made reference to the inconsistency of the ESNO models and the predictions to an El Nino event this summer and fall. it now appears that the prediction could be a bust. What this means, is that the previous low forecast for this hurricane season may have to be altered, since the forecast for a below average season was based primarily on the assumption, that an El Nino event would be in place.


Where did this talk of an el-nino bust come from? 8 days ago, from the bi-monthly Australia Bureau of Meteorology ENSO Wrap Up:

"The four-month sequence of sub-surface temperature anomalies (to June) shows warm temperature anomalies across the top 100 m of the equatorial Pacific between the Date Line and the South American coast. Some cooling of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific has taken place over the past month, but sub-surface waters remain more than 3 °C warmer than average in a large part of the eastern equatorial Pacific. "

"Climate models surveyed by the Bureau continue to indicate that El Niño is likely to develop by spring 2014. The Bureau's ENSO Tracker remains at El Niño ALERT, indicating at least a 70% chance of El Niño developing in 2014. "

"Most international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that SSTs in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are likely to warm further over the coming months. Despite some easing in the predictions of how much the equatorial Pacific will warm by, the majority of the surveyed models indicate that sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are likely to exceed El Niño thresholds before or during the southern hemisphere spring. "

20. jpsb
Quoting 2. ricderr:

Impact of Neoguri on U.S. weather

won't it also have a favorable effect concerning el nino?
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Regardless of El Nino or not, we have more immediate concerns. The SAL. Until this pushes out of the way or thins out, don't look for any development off the coast of Africa anytime soon.



Nearly the entire Continent of Africa is precipitation free in that satellite image. That's pretty remarkable in itself.
Quoting 13. StormWx:



Hmmm, but we wont be having an El Nino til at least October now if these numbers hold up. We may not even have one at all! Get the crow ready Ric :o)
The average for AMJ would seem to be right around the 0.5 threshold. I caution people to not focus on the daily values too much as that is been fluctuating up and down recently. Let's just let this month play out.

Quoting 8. CybrTeddy:

The next WPAC storm will be one to watch, looks like it'll be smaller than Neoguri was.



It may not be as large as Neoguri was and that may cause RI to take place down the road.
What amazes me is the lack of convection in the Atlantic while Andrew was a solid hurricane approaching the Bahamas. @ 4:16

Hardly a cloud in the Caribbean!
25. jpsb
Quoting 5. WaterWitch11:

good to see that neoguri is weaker

SOLAR FLARE ERUPTS FROM UNEXPECTED SOURCE: Yesterday, July 8th, Earth-orbiting satellites detected a strong M6-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash. X-ray and UV radiation from the flare sent waves of ionization coursing through Earth's upper atmosphere. This briefly disturbed the propagation of shortwave radio transmissions around the dayside of our planet, especially over Europe and North America. Conditions have since returned to normal.


A team of researchers in the U.S. and Germany has measured the highest level of ultraviolet radiation ever recorded on the Earth’s surface. The extraordinary UV fluxes, observed in the Bolivian Andes only 1,500 miles from the equator, are far above those normally considered to be harmful to both terrestrial and aquatic life. The results are being published in the open-access journal Frontiers in Environmental Science.

http://journal.frontiersin.org/Journal/10.3389/fe nvs.2014.00019/abstract
El Shmino! El NIno can go hang itself for all I care, I'd rather enjoy untainted weather conditions across the globe.
Glad there has been a new blog entry, it put an end to the garbage that was stinking up the last entry. Let's not carry it over to this one as well.
28. jpsb
Quoting 19. Naga5000:



Where did this talk of an el-nino bust come from? 8 days ago, from the bi-monthly Australia Bureau of Meteorology ENSO Wrap Up:






Peru says El Nino threat over, waters cooling and fish returning

http://news.yahoo.com/peru-says-el-nino-threat-ov er-waters-cooling-232314417.html
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Regardless of El Nino or not, we have more immediate concerns. The SAL. Until this pushes out of the way or thins out, don't look for any development off the coast of Africa anytime soon.



Again.. sal outbreaks are very normal in early July and tend to peak this month.
Thanks doc!

I will be watching the 3rd week of July for cooler weather (and will plan accordingly!)

I am not surprised that a monster storm would affect such a large scale area in this way.

This makes me wonder though, is anyone fully researching this or going through weather Archives to see if hurricanes/typhoons affect weather all over the globe in various manners when these storms get fairly strong. I know some US based met's probably do look into this, but It makes me wonder if a powerful enough storm could affect weather globally, enough to notice at least.
Thanks for the Update Dr. Masters....
Quoting 24. opal92nwf:

What amazes me is the lack of convection in the Atlantic while Andrew was a solid hurricane approaching the Bahamas. @ 4:16

Hardly a cloud in the Caribbean!


It had almost dissipated at least two times before it began its intensification. I believe that is why so many people were unprepared. South Florida had not had any hurricane of significance since 1965. The few little ones that went through, hardly knocked the palm fronds off. I can remember on Saturday, most people were going about their business and when asked about the "storm", it was "What storm?" Brian Norcross, through luck or skill, was one of the few local broadcasters that would hint that this possibly could be the big one. As we later found out, it was skill. Even though there were many evacuations, many in its path did not take it that seriously, and many people that we knew we having hurricane parties. I spent most of the day Sunday boarding up our home and spent the rest of the night screaming in the bathtub for four hours.
Models are now showing east coast trough continuing through the extended period, and actually getting even deeper at the end of the long term.

In short, that means no break in sight of westerly flow over Florida. I did some history digging and found that at least since I've been here, we've never had westerly flow dominate this long over the summer in Florida. It has been in place for nearly 6 weeks now continuously.
I always admired Ben Franklin for trying to understand the weather and hypothesizing if we could modify it someday. I did not like the fact that the real caption under this picture read:

"Now kid, remember, grab the copper wire when I tell you!!!!"

Quoting 33. Jedkins01:

Models are now showing east coast trough continuing through the extended period, and actually getting even deeper at the end of the long term.

In short, that means no break in sight of westerly flow over Florida. I did some history digging and found that at least since I've been here, we've never had westerly flow dominate this long over the summer in Florida. It has been in place for nearly 6 weeks now continuously.
I've always thought the troughiness over the East Coast is a byproduct of El Nino conditions, along with the strong subtropical jet stream, and SAL.
Quoting Grothar:
I always admired Ben Franklin for trying to understand the weather and hypothesizing if we could modify it someday. I did not like the fact that the real caption under this picture read:

"Now kid, remember, grab the copper wire when I tell you!!!!"



I heard Ben Franklin had the most awesome "pull my finger!" gags.
Abundant moisture over the Bahamas. It's really not moving much compared to the precipitation across Central Fl.
Tropical Wave approaching Trinidad, Pottery and company should be receiving some beneficial rains from this.



Reposting my blog from last night since it was late. I talked a bit about the Atlantic.

Link
Quoting 17. CybrTeddy:

I'll give 2014 this, extremely impressive amounts of TCHP, especially in the GOMEX. Anything that gets in there this season if shear abates for long enough has plenty of fuel to work with. I can't find a year at this point where TCHP was this high.



Compared to 2013.



And to the last "hyperactive" hurricane season, 2010.




Maybe another more alarming concern is the clearly noticeable northward progression of TCHP in the South Atlantic. From The Bahamas eastward specifically between 20 and 30 degrees north seems to have warmed to an even greater extent than the GULF of Mexico.
Quoting 34. Grothar:

I always admired Ben Franklin for trying to understand the weather and hypothesizing if we could modify it someday. I did not like the fact that the real caption under this picture read:

"Now kid, remember, grab the copper wire when I tell you!!!!"



have to admire those who think outside the box. now gro how old were you in this picture? :)
Quoting 33. Jedkins01:

Models are now showing east coast trough continuing through the extended period, and actually getting even deeper at the end of the long term.

In short, that means no break in sight of westerly flow over Florida. I did some history digging and found that at least since I've been here, we've never had westerly flow dominate this long over the summer in Florida. It has been in place for nearly 6 weeks now continuously.


In South Florida, it has been bringing some of the highest humidities in years and hot, hot, hot. It is indeed an odd pattern for this long.
Quoting 17. CybrTeddy:

I'll give 2014 this, extremely impressive amounts of TCHP, especially in the GOMEX. Anything that gets in there this season if shear abates for long enough has plenty of fuel to work with. I can't find a year at this point where TCHP was this high.



Compared to 2013.



And to the last "hyperactive" hurricane season, 2010.


I highly doubt that will be put to any use this season.Shear refuses to die down thanks to el nino forming.I mean anything could happen.But with the way things have been going lately I wouldn't be to surprise if that is never used.
Quoting 25. jpsb:



A team of researchers in the U.S. and Germany has measured the highest level of ultraviolet radiation ever recorded on the Earth’s surface. The extraordinary UV fluxes, observed in the Bolivian Andes only 1,500 miles from the equator, are far above those normally considered to be harmful to both terrestrial and aquatic life. The results are being published in the open-access journal Frontiers in Environmental Science.

http://journal.frontiersin.org/Journal/10.3389/fe nvs.2014.00019/abstract

tried to look up i think the link is not valid
Quoting 43. Grothar:



In South Florida, it has been bringing some of the highest humidities in years and hot, hot, hot. It is indeed an odd pattern for this long.
Was it like this in 1992 before Andrew?
Hmmm, but we wont be having an El Nino til at least October now if these numbers hold up. We may not even have one at all! Get the crow ready Ric :o)

ahem....i'd rather serve crow than eat it....we could have a repeat of 2012 where it didn't form...and then...well...a whole lot of us will be eating crow....but i still believe we'll see el nino this year.....here's what i wrote on rands blog...

a bunch of things.....about this slide in el nino.....

first and foremost...the CPC comes out with their monthly update tomorrow 7/10 and i'm hoping the experts can answer a bunch of questions that i have as do others...i do spend a lot of time looking at the ENSO cycles...but i'm still a rank amateur...

the biggest question with the 3.4 region tanking has to be...are we going to have a repeat of 2012?....peru has said that the anchovies have come back...which doesn't sound related but is as the fish migrating to cooler waters leaving the peruvian fish industry hurting is one of the earliest signs of an el nino event...however.....that's also happened before and we did end up with an el nino.....so the signs right now are iffy....tradewinds haven't done what they should...the SOI values have been oppositte of where they should have been...and cloud levels have been what they should have been in a neutral state...on the other hand......eastern pacific tropical genesis has been exactly what it should be for an el nino event....we've already seen signs of el nino jet stream patterns and shear patterns in the atlantic basin that occur during an el nino event and just recently we've seen the SOI, tradewinds and cloudiness start their transfer to what might indicate el nino is imminent....so here is my personal take......

first....the spring barrier and why it made a mess of expectations....
for the models that look at the enso region and try to predict what the conditions will be...they just don't do well in the spring time....last winter....the models were showing the highest chances of a moderate el nino event to happen with the highest chances in the sept -november time frame....many experts including a group of german scientists thought it could even be as late as winter....once spring rolled around...the models started to predict what is unofficially called a super el nino with anomalies above 2.0c of average...and they quickened the pace to where el nino conditions could have happened in the spring time....and with those predictions...all hell broke loose...

more to follow.......
Quoting 39. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Tropical Wave approaching Trinidad, Pottery and company should be receiving some beneficial rains from this.






That wave should begin moving a little NW soon. It does look like some of the Windwards will get some rain.

Quoting washingtonian115:
I highly doubt that will be put to any use this season.Shear refuses to die down thanks to el nino forming.I mean anything could happen.But with the way things have been going lately I wouldn't be to surprise if that is never used.


For what it's worth, shear as actually been lesser in the Gulf of Mexico than in the Caribbean. Could get a potent storm to develop over that pocket in the GOMEX off a trough split.
50. jpsb
Quoting 45. WaterWitch11:


tried to look up i think the link is not valid




Here you go Link

When I paste url here at WU, WU always puts one space into the url. You have to remove that space to get the link to work. In the above the space was between "e" and the "n" in fenvs
Quoting 49. CybrTeddy:



For what it's worth, shear as actually been lesser than in the Gulf of Mexico than in the Caribbean. Could get a potent storm to develop over that pocket in the GOMEX off a trough split.
We'll see.But if not used in Aug/Sep than October which is known to produce notorious storms (Wilma)
Quoting 46. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Was it like this in 1992 before Andrew?


Hard to remember that far back, but it was just a normal summer. I don't remember it being too hot or even that rainy. Aside from a small system early in the season, there was hardly any activity in the Atlantic. That is why when this weak system formed, conditions did not seem that favorable and Andrew weakened a number of times. Then we got this:

Thanks Dr. Masters!
COOLER TEMPS IN THE US IN SUMMER-THANK YOU NEOGURI.
daytime heating off the east coast of Florida/Bahamas?





Quoting 27. Jedkins01:

Glad there has been a new blog entry, it put an end to the garbage that was stinking up the last entry. Let's not carry it over to this one as well.


well you just did? LOL..even bringing it up is talking about it and possibly rehashing it..

Good early afternoon

It's a beautiful 84, feeling like 92, partially cloudy kind of day here on the island today.

I'm beginning to feel like I'm going to start groaning, moaning and bemoaning the lack of rain like CaribBoy soon!! The army of water trucks has begun and it seems like they are running 24 hours a day now. I don't envy their jobs, trying to locate and reach some of the houses up island. Those trucks must have the longest hoses on earth with drivers that have nerves of steel.

It's been quite a while since I last posted and hope that everyone is well!

Lindy
Quoting WaterWitch11:

tried to look up i think the link is not valid


Link

This study relates to high levels of UV radiation at very high altitudes in the Andes. Given the very high rates of data loss, and the fact these readings were taken at some of the highest and driest altitudes in the world, it hardly seems surprising that these supposed reading would be bad for plant and animal life. It's one of the reasons one finds very little in the way of plant and animal life in the high Andes.
Quoting 9. stoormfury:

a few weeks ago, I made reference to the inconsistency of the ESNO models and the predictions to an El Nino event this summer and fall. it now appears that the prediction could be a bust. What this means, is that the previous low forecast for this hurricane season may have to be altered, since the forecast for a below average season was based primarily on the assumption, that an El Nino event would be in place.


crow for so many people..it has gone from historical Super El Nino in June to moderate El Nino in August to now a weak El Nino in October..but I guess some need to keep hope alive of something materializing..I called it a bust from the beginning and still say it will be so..the models have been all over the place with predicting this el nino
Quoting 50. jpsb:





Here you go Link

When I paste url here at WU, WU always puts one space into the url. You have to remove that space to get the link to work. In the above the space was between "e" and the "n" in fenvs

thanks
Doubt the hurricane season predictions will end up being wrong (I know I said that last year, too), but the conditions in the Atlantic are actually less favorable than they were last year at this point. An extremely high MSLP is being predicted for ASO, high vertical wind shear is expected to persist in the Caribbean, etc. If there's not an El Nino, I'm still expecting a 2013 like year.

Biggest threats this year: East-coast trough splits (Arthur), eastern GOMEX trough splits over extremely warm SSTs and TCHP, and anything that creeps up in the Bahamas from a tropical wave.
Quoting 28. jpsb:






Peru says El Nino threat over, waters cooling and fish returning

http://news.yahoo.com/peru-says-el-nino-threat-ov er-waters-cooling-232314417.html


That article sounds fishy(pun intended).
Quoting ncstorm:


crow for so many people..it has gone from historical Super El Nino in June to moderate El Nino in August to now a weak El Nino in October..but I guess some need to keep hope alive of something materializing..I called it a bust from the beginning and still say it will be so..the models have been all over the place with predicting this el nino


I really, really, really doubt people on here would be up-in-arms over an El Nino bust and an active hurricane season, lol. I think most of us were rooting for an El Nino out of the hope a La Nina might establish itself in 2015. Not convinced either will happen, yet. Weak-to-moderate El Nino event later in the year, similar to 2009 and 2006. Also, no one deserves crow for predicting a forecast and having the you-know-what's to stick too it. I always found that particular term over a forecast bust to be particularly annoying.
Quoting 29. hurricane23:



Again.. sal outbreaks are very normal in early July and tend to peak this month.
Sal is normal for the time of the year but not this much.
crow for so many people..it has gone from historical Super El Nino in June to moderate El Nino in August to now a weak El Nino in October..but I guess some need to keep hope alive of something materializing..I called it a bust from the beginning and still say it will be so..the models have been all over the place with predicting this el nino

if el nino does not materialize i will be the first to partake of my portion although i've never been on the super bandwagon.....in fact..i remember someone belittling me for berating those that were...LOL...hmm who could that be...now as for the models.......same reason i didn't buy into the super hype..and the early advent of an el nino....was...that they have been consistant....winter through now.....except for when they were not to be trusted....called...the spring barrier...and it was in the earliest runs of the spring barrier that all this hype about a super el nino blew up...so....why yes...you can say the models have been inconsistent.....they were only inconsitent when they have always been...it's just we..and those that should have known...i/e some climate experts....bought into the hype...and now....well..the crow is being served

Yikes,another strong Typhoon looming down the road from 92W.

12z GFS.

Quoting 55. ncstorm:

daytime heating off the east coast of Florida/Bahamas?








Looking out over the ocean, it looks dark. Some clouds moving our way.



Quoting 61. CybrTeddy:

Doubt the hurricane season predictions will end up being wrong (I know I said that last year, too), but the conditions in the Atlantic are actually less favorable than they were last year at this point. An extremely high MSLP is being predicted for ASO, high vertical wind shear is expected to persist in the Caribbean, etc. If there's not an El Nino, I'm still expecting a 2013 like year.

Biggest threats this year: East-coast trough splits (Arthur), eastern GOMEX trough splits over extremely warm SSTs and TCHP, and anything that creeps up in the Bahamas from a tropical wave.
Is this what you are talking about Cybr with the high MSLP? Note this is 600 hrs. out. and subject to change.

Quoting 65. ricderr:

crow for so many people..it has gone from historical Super El Nino in June to moderate El Nino in August to now a weak El Nino in October..but I guess some need to keep hope alive of something materializing..I called it a bust from the beginning and still say it will be so..the models have been all over the place with predicting this el nino

if el nino does not materialize i will be the first to partake of my portion although i've never been on the super bandwagon.....in fact..i remember someone belittling me for berating those that were...LOL...hmm who could that be...now as for the models.......same reason i didn't buy into the super hype..and the early advent of an el nino....was...that they have been consistant....winter through now.....except for when they were not to be trusted....called...the spring barrier...and it was in the earliest runs of the spring barrier that all this hype about a super el nino blew up...so....why yes...you can say the models have been inconsistent.....they were only inconsitent when they have always been...it's just we..and those that should have known...i/e some climate experts....bought into the hype...and now....well..the crow is being served




Yuck..(assuming that is crow)
Quoting 63. CybrTeddy:



I really, really, really doubt people on here would be up-in-arms over an El Nino bust and an active hurricane season, lol. I think most of us were rooting for an El Nino out of the hope a La Nina might establish itself in 2015. Not convinced either will happen, yet. Weak-to-moderate El Nino event later in the year, similar to 2009 and 2006. Also, no one deserves crow for predicting a forecast and having the you-know-what's to stick too it. I always found that particular term over a forecast bust to be particularly annoying.


come on Teddy..crow is tradition here at WU especially if you on the other side of that forecast as I and maybe a couple of people were..

I can remember spending a night here well into midnight debating el nino with some of the best bloggers here..

and Ric..i only chastise you in your approach only..hint hint..
Quoting 19. Naga5000:



Where did this talk of an el-nino bust come from? 8 days ago, from the bi-monthly Australia Bureau of Meteorology ENSO Wrap Up:

"The four-month sequence of sub-surface temperature anomalies (to June) shows warm temperature anomalies across the top 100 m of the equatorial Pacific between the Date Line and the South American coast. Some cooling of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific has taken place over the past month, but sub-surface waters remain more than 3 °C warmer than average in a large part of the eastern equatorial Pacific. "

"Climate models surveyed by the Bureau continue to indicate that El Niño is likely to develop by spring 2014. The Bureau's ENSO Tracker remains at El Niño ALERT, indicating at least a 70% chance of El Niño developing in 2014. "

"Most international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that SSTs in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are likely to warm further over the coming months. Despite some easing in the predictions of how much the equatorial Pacific will warm by, the majority of the surveyed models indicate that sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are likely to exceed El Niño thresholds before or during the southern hemisphere spring. "




So now, all of a sudden we have ENSO downcasting. I agree, the models still look positive for El Niño but the effects may not be prominent until fall and winter, perhaps not that much over the summer.
Quoting 46. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Was it like this in 1992 before Andrew?


Yep, it was summer in Florida.
Quoting 63. CybrTeddy:



I really, really, really doubt people on here would be up-in-arms over an El Nino bust and an active hurricane season, lol. I think most of us were rooting for an El Nino out of the hope a La Nina might establish itself in 2015. Not convinced either will happen, yet. Weak-to-moderate El Nino event later in the year, similar to 2009 and 2006. Also, no one deserves crow for predicting a forecast and having the you-know-what's to stick too it. I always found that particular term over a forecast bust to be particularly annoying.


Great post Teddy as the longer this nino waits could mean another dud year next year across our basin. We need something to flip the atmosphere as the Sal is the most impressive as I have ever seen and good luck to those saying this could be an active hurricane season as it sure seems El-Nino type weather patterns are already in place across the Globe. Here in FL deep troughs have persisted across the eastern US all summer bringing the midwest a cool summer so far and bringing some of the most rains in years to eastern FL while the west coast of FL stays dry.


OIA for example has seem 5.50" of rain so far this month and we are close to what we would normally see for the whole month.

It's possible we may have a 2 year El-Nino starting this year and going thru most of next year. Similar to 1986 and 1987.



Look at nino 1&2 spike up come next Spring.

Quoting 64. Gearsts:

Sal is normal for the time of the year but not this much.



I have many friends across PR and Barbados and all of them are saying how dry it has been. Infact some of them are saying drought conditions are taking hold.
Quoting 55. ncstorm:

daytime heating off the east coast of Florida/Bahamas?


Thunder is starting here in Down Town Miami, rain on the way. Rained a bit earlier in South Dade and its still overcast down there.

[Located in Miami Florida]
77. jpsb
Quoting 70. ncstorm:



come on Teddy..crow is tradition here at WU especially if you on the other side of that forecast as I and maybe a couple of people were..

I can remember spending a night here well into midnight debating el nino with some of the best bloggers here..

and Ric..i only chastise you in your approach only..hint hint..


I try to stay out of the forecasting business I am almost always wrong. But I did forecast a very cold US winter for the last three years (1 out of 3 ain't bad) and I am sticking to that forecast for this year too.
Wow 2013 forecast was GLOOM AND DOOM 2014 forecast SAFE AND SOUND. 2013 was a bust year will 2014 verify?
There also appears to be another warm pool organizing. Going to be interesting to see if this area at 160E and the Dateline continues to build or does it fizzle.



Further more to all the El-Nino bust fans this may not be what you want to see and that is our cooling phase is about to come to a end.


Quoting CybrTeddy:


I really, really, really doubt people on here would be up-in-arms over an El Nino bust and an active hurricane season, lol. I think most of us were rooting for an El Nino out of the hope a La Nina might establish itself in 2015. Not convinced either will happen, yet. Weak-to-moderate El Nino event later in the year, similar to 2009 and 2006. Also, no one deserves crow for predicting a forecast and having the you-know-what's to stick too it. I always found that particular term over a forecast bust to be particularly annoying.


The guts? ;)
Quoting 76. Climate175:




Exactly! Expect this stay pretty much the same thru the next several weeks. Very cool summer so far up north.
Soup anybody?



Been thundering from storms lingering just offshore 4 mornings in a row now. The last two days, it's lasted hours and hours. Very strange pattern indeed, although my area hasn't had too much rain. We've mainly just been getting the blow off from the cells offshore, not amounting to a whole lot. Last year, the flow was much more south to north oriented, where this year, west to east. We had a very unusual pattern last year as well.
Quoting 82. GatorWX:

Soup anybody?



Been thundering from storms lingering just offshore 4 mornings in a row now. The last two days, it's lasted hours and hours. Very strange pattern indeed, although my area hasn't had too much rain. We've mainly just been getting the blow off from the cells offshore, not amounting to a whole lot. Last year, the flow was much more south to north oriented, where this year, west to east. We had a very unusual pattern last year as well.


Pattern has been strange indeed lately. Many areas across E C FL have had 5" to 10" of rain already this month and many could end the month closer to 15" with average of 7" for July so as you can see its possible many areas around me could get twice their normal rainfall.
Quoting 83. StormTrackerScott:



Pattern has been strange indeed lately. Many areas across E C FL have had 5" to 10" of rain already this month and many could end the month closer to 15" with average of 7" for July so as you can see its possible many areas around me could get twice their normal rainfall.


Quoting 79. StormTrackerScott:

There also appears to be another warm pool organizing. Going to be interesting to see if this area at 160E and the Dateline continues to build or does it fizzle.



Further more to all the El-Nino bust fans this may not be what you want to see and that is our cooling phase is about to come to a end.



Is about this time they start to come out.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Exactly! Expect this stay pretty much the same thru the next several weeks. Very cool summer so far up north.



It's not been very cool so far although the coming two weeks will be. Some years (1992, 2000) have much cooler with 1992 especially cool with concerns about enough growing degree days to mature corn in Wisconsin and Minnesota.
1992 was really an unusual outlier year though because of stratospheric aerosol from the Mt Pinatubo eruption in May 1991.
The squirrels also have been more active than normal here, it is not their usual summer behavior, we will wait and see.
Quoting GatorWX:




All the rain keeps forming just inland of my location. Several days we've had lots of thunder and storms only a 1/2 mile or so away.
I've only picked up .88" so far this month (Gateway -Ft Myers). Maybe today the storms will setup over my location.
Quoting Naga5000:


Where did this talk of an el-nino bust come from? 8 days ago, from the bi-monthly Australia Bureau of Meteorology ENSO Wrap Up:

"The four-month sequence of sub-surface temperature anomalies (to June) shows warm temperature anomalies across the top 100 m of the equatorial Pacific between the Date Line and the South American coast. Some cooling of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific has taken place over the past month, but sub-surface waters remain more than 3 °C warmer than average in a large part of the eastern equatorial Pacific. "

"Climate models surveyed by the Bureau continue to indicate that El Niño is likely to develop by spring 2014. The Bureau's ENSO Tracker remains at El Niño ALERT, indicating at least a 70% chance of El Niño developing in 2014. "

"Most international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that SSTs in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are likely to warm further over the coming months. Despite some easing in the predictions of how much the equatorial Pacific will warm by, the majority of the surveyed models indicate that sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are likely to exceed El Niño thresholds before or during the southern hemisphere spring. "


Recent trends, including a significant decrease in ocean heat content in the equatorial East Pacific subsurface, weakening of the subsurface warm pool, lack of sustained westerlies (they've been easterly) for the past month, and lack of any notable change with the last strong MJO pulse. The sea surface temperature configuration is not similar to previous years, and the atmosphere isn't responding to the warm waters in the Pacific. In fact, using some metrics, we're performing more like a La Niña than El Niño.
One member over at AmericanWX(Blizzard96) is predicting a triple Nino. If so, then we'd have to wait until the season of 2017 for good activity.
We need to get the first el nino before we start talking about double and triple year el ninos..
Quoting 74. StormTrackerScott:



I have many friends across PR and Barbados and all of them are saying how dry it has been. Infact some of them are saying drought conditions are taking hold.
Im from PR and yes is very dry for the eastern half of the island and drought is expect in a month or two if the dry pattern continues. Gov is talking about water restrictions for the next couple of weeks.
El nino usually brings drought and warm stable weather for the islands and PR.
Currently, lots of very loud thunder at my location (S.E. Fort Myers). Hopefully I get the rain today.
Quoting 19. Naga5000:



Where did this talk of an el-nino bust come from? 8 days ago, from the bi-monthly Australia Bureau of Meteorology ENSO Wrap Up:

"The four-month sequence of sub-surface temperature anomalies (to June) shows warm temperature anomalies across the top 100 m of the equatorial Pacific between the Date Line and the South American coast. Some cooling of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific has taken place over the past month, but sub-surface waters remain more than 3 C warmer than average in a large part of the eastern equatorial Pacific. "

"Climate models surveyed by the Bureau continue to indicate that El Nio is likely to develop by spring 2014. The Bureau's ENSO Tracker remains at El Nio ALERT, indicating at least a 70% chance of El Nio developing in 2014. "

"Most international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that SSTs in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are likely to warm further over the coming months. Despite some easing in the predictions of how much the equatorial Pacific will warm by, the majority of the surveyed models indicate that sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are likely to exceed El Nio thresholds before or during the southern hemisphere spring. "




Exactly!!! Enough is enough with this so-called El Nino bust! This is nothing like 2012!!
Quoting 91. ncstorm:

We need to get the first el nino before we start talking about double and triple year el ninos..


Models must be picking up on another warm pool organizing because look at this at the end of the year. This enso plume matches to cfsv2 plume.

El nino is a trick to get in yer tax pockets.

the data is skewed,'

they do it for the billions in grant money

the pacific has cooled the last 17 years in a row.

; p
My point is the fact that this el-nino is taking its time it's possible it may screw up next years hurricane season too. Again we have to watch the subsurface area near 160E to see if this warm pool grows.
Tx13,I know is only a invest and I am talking of 92W but have you made an analysis of the factors that may lead to what the models despict and that is a strong Typhoon and what track it may take?

Quoting 89. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Recent trends, including a significant decrease in ocean heat content in the equatorial East Pacific subsurface, weakening of the subsurface warm pool, lack of sustained westerlies (they've been easterly) for the past month, and lack of any notable change with the last strong MJO pulse. The sea surface temperature configuration is not similar to previous years, and the atmosphere isn't responding to the warm waters in the Pacific. In fact, using some metrics, we're performing more like a La Niña than El Niño.



" Westerly wind anomalies are present over the western tropical Pacific and near-average across the remainder of the tropical Pacific (see anomaly map for the 5 days ending 29 June). If these westerly winds continued they could drive further warming of surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific, and may be a sign that the atmosphere could be falling into alignment with the signs of a developing El Niño in the ocean.

However, in recent weeks the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) has moved from phase 4 (eastern Indian Ocean), which favours easterly wind anomalies over the tropical Pacific, to phase 6 and 7 (western Pacific), which favours westerly wind anomalies. This may be contributing to the current atmospheric pattern, which appears more El Niño-like than in recent weeks. Once the MJO event passes, it will be more apparent how coupled the ENSO system has become. "

and

"over the past fortnight changes have occurred in the atmosphere that may be a response to the warm surface waters–the Southern Oscillation Index has dropped by over 10 points, and weakened trade winds have re-appeared. These changes would need to persist for several weeks in order for an El Niño to be considered established, and it remains possible they are simply related to shorter term weather variability. " Link All of this from July 1.

Either way you slice it, to start talking bust over short term variability is simply incorrect. All this back and forth about El Nino seems to be a product of impatience, misinterpretation, and reliance on short term/daily events as evidence for something.

I would rather sit back and see what those whose job it is to interpret the data and report the findings have to say. next ENSO Wrap Up is July 15th.
Nino 3.4 (Euro)


Nino 3.4 (CFS)
Quoting 93. Sfloridacat5:

Currently, lots of very loud thunder at my location (S.E. Fort Myers). Hopefully I get the rain today.


Let's hope. Horrendous storm in Winter Park and many surrounding areas yesterday evening, but when I got to Maitland, it was dry. I hope today brings a good storm to my location, because the forecast dries out somewhat going toward the weekend.
We need to get the first el nino before we start talking about double and triple year el ninos..


dagnabit!!!!....i hate having to agree with you...but you hit the freaking nail on the head.......
Quoting Naga5000:



" Westerly wind anomalies are present over the western tropical Pacific and near-average across the remainder of the tropical Pacific (see anomaly map for the 5 days ending 29 June). If these westerly winds continued they could drive further warming of surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific, and may be a sign that the atmosphere could be falling into alignment with the signs of a developing El Niño in the ocean.

However, in recent weeks the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) has moved from phase 4 (eastern Indian Ocean), which favours easterly wind anomalies over the tropical Pacific, to phase 6 and 7 (western Pacific), which favours westerly wind anomalies. This may be contributing to the current atmospheric pattern, which appears more El Niño-like than in recent weeks. Once the MJO event passes, it will be more apparent how coupled the ENSO system has become. "

and

"over the past fortnight changes have occurred in the atmosphere that may be a response to the warm surface waters–the Southern Oscillation Index has dropped by over 10 points, and weakened trade winds have re-appeared. These changes would need to persist for several weeks in order for an El Niño to be considered established, and it remains possible they are simply related to shorter term weather variability. " Link All of this from July 1.

Either way you slice it, to start talking bust over short term variability is simply incorrect. All this back and forth about El Nino seems to be a product of impatience, misinterpretation, and reliance on short term/daily events as evidence for something.

I would rather sit back and see what those whose job it is to interpret the data and report the findings have to say. next ENSO Wrap Up is July 15th.

Sit back and wait??? Are you nuts? We have to engage in vigorous arm flapping to demonstrate we have -

"A Giant Super El Nino"

or

"A Giant Bust"

Seriously, the truth is we have neither. As you say, it will play itself out one way or the other. The very idea we think we can predict an El Nino is a little laughable. Look back at 2012 and see how that worked out. We have enough trouble predicting hurricanes, and we know a lot more about them than we do about how, when, and how strong an El Nino or La Nina might be. The entire world has wasted a lot of bandwidth arguing about the meteorological equivalent of how many angels can dance on the head of a pin.


Meteorologists around the world were intrigued by a wrinkle seen in the image above, like a tail coming out of the eye of the storm. These "cloud cliffs" are sometimes seen in strong cyclones but nobody knows what causes them. "It's a kind of odd feature that's got people talking," says Brian McNoldy from the University of Miami in Florida.

Although it looks like a scar where there are no clouds, McNoldy says it's really a sudden drop in their height, casting a shadow on the lower clouds. He says it might be caused by ice being thrown up particularly high in the atmosphere near the eye by intense thunderstorms, and then being spread in just one direction as the storm turns.


Link
Either way you slice it, to start talking bust over short term variability is simply incorrect. All this back and forth about El Nino seems to be a product of impatience, misinterpretation, and reliance on short term/daily events as evidence for something.

I would rather sit back and see what those whose job it is to interpret the data and report the findings have to say. next ENSO Wrap Up is July 15th
.

also the CPC monthly update is tomorrow......and as i posted in rands blog...we are actually finally seeing early signs of what is expected during an el nino event...and once again why????.......because contrary to the recent hyped comments of expecting the super duper el nino anytime back from last winter to june 5th...ad nauseum ad nauseum....we're expecting it late summer to fall
Quoting 97. StormTrackerScott:
My point is the fact that this el-nino is taking its time it's possible it may screw up next years hurricane season too. Again we have to watch the subsurface area near 160E to see if this warm pool grows.


Unless we get some more massive Westerly Wind Bursts like the ones in Jan-March, I just don't see it happening.

We are getting some real thunderboomers right now. Very heavy rain.

Even though I hate El Niño,I believe we need one so the Atlantic can get its act together next season. I believe that El niño might actually help the Atlantic to stabilize instability which has been pretty bad the past couple of years. The more El niño waits,the more probability of another fail season.
Quoting 105. ricderr:

Either way you slice it, to start talking bust over short term variability is simply incorrect. All this back and forth about El Nino seems to be a product of impatience, misinterpretation, and reliance on short term/daily events as evidence for something.

I would rather sit back and see what those whose job it is to interpret the data and report the findings have to say. next ENSO Wrap Up is July 15th
.

also the CPC monthly update is tomorrow......and as i posted in rands blog...we are actually finally seeing early signs of what is expected during an el nino event...and once again why????.......because contrary to the recent hyped comments of expecting the super duper el nino anytime back from last winter to june 5th...ad nauseum ad nauseum....we're expecting it late summer to fall


so confused on the el nino subject. does it mean rain for the us west coast?
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


All the rain keeps forming just inland of my location. Several days we've had lots of thunder and storms only a 1/2 mile or so away.
I've only picked up .88" so far this month (Gateway -Ft Myers). Maybe today the storms will setup over my location.

I actually have thunderstorms within 75 miles of me. That's more hopeful than any time in July so far. OK, not really hopeful, but I can try wishcasting to see if I can get anything over by me. :-) It's 97 with a dewpoint of 69, and my rainfall total for the month is 0.00".
Quoting 103. sar2401:


Sit back and wait??? Are you nuts? We have to engage in vigorous arm flapping to demonstrate we have -

"A Giant Super El Nino"

or

"A Giant Bust"

Seriously, the truth is we have neither. As you say, it will play itself out one way or the other. The very idea we think we can predict an El Nino is a little laughable. Look back at 2012 and see how that worked out. We have enough trouble predicting hurricanes, and we know a lot more about them than we do about how, when, and how strong an El Nino or La Nina might be. The entire world has wasted a lot of bandwidth arguing about the meteorological equivalent of how many angels can dance on the head of a pin.


I do enough vigorous arm flapping as it is. They are getting tired. :)
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
My point is the fact that this el-nino is taking its time it's possible it may screw up next years hurricane season too. Again we have to watch the subsurface area near 160E to see if this warm pool grows.


This hurricane season has just started, and we got a very early July hurricane to hit the outer banks. So this season is hardly 'screwed up'. And next season, who knows. Too early to make a prediction a year in advance, let along what will happen next month. Instead of making wild predictions just go with the flow, and listen to what the NWS and NOAA have said. 9-11 storms this year. Last year they were completely wrong. They could be again.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR... SOUTHEASTERN BROWARD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA... NORTHEASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 400 PM EDT

* AT 204 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN OCCURRING FROM DORAL TO NORTH MIAMI BEACH TO HOLLYWOOD. THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE NEARLY STATIONARY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN POTENTIALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS, LEADING TO STREET FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND FLOODING WILL IMPACT NORTH MIAMI BEACH, AVENTURA AND HOLLYWOOD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW INCHES OF SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.
Quoting 74. StormTrackerScott:


I have many friends across PR and Barbados and all of them are saying how dry it has been. Infact some of them are saying drought conditions are taking hold.
Link


I think most of the Caribbean has been below average for rainfall and above average in temps so far for 2014. The lack of rain has seriously hurt the crops here.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Great post Teddy as the longer this nino waits could mean another dud year next year across our basin. We need something to flip the atmosphere as the Sal is the most impressive as I have ever seen and good luck to those saying this could be an active hurricane season as it sure seems El-Nino type weather patterns are already in place across the Globe. Here in FL deep troughs have persisted across the eastern US all summer bringing the midwest a cool summer so far and bringing some of the most rains in years to eastern FL while the west coast of FL stays dry.


OIA for example has seem 5.50" of rain so far this month and we are close to what we would normally see for the whole month.

It's possible we may have a 2 year El-Nino starting this year and going thru most of next year. Similar to 1986 and 1987.



Look at nino 1&2 spike up come next Spring.



Looks like your El Nino predictions are likley busto. The great thing about weather is that you can try again! So go, whatcha think will happen next? None of the models predicted negative values. :0)

The 3.4 is now NEGATIVE.



So is the 4.

Quoting 109. WaterWitch11:


so confused on the el nino subject. does it mean rain for the us west coast?


El Nino usually creates a more favorable pattern for rainfall in the Southwest, particularly here in CA. But it's by no means guaranteed. 2006-07 El Nino was a total dud(L.A. rainfall way below average), for example.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Meteorologists around the world were intrigued by a wrinkle seen in the image above, like a tail coming out of the eye of the storm. These "cloud cliffs" are sometimes seen in strong cyclones but nobody knows what causes them. "It's a kind of odd feature that's got people talking," says Brian McNoldy from the University of Miami in Florida.

Although it looks like a scar where there are no clouds, McNoldy says it's really a sudden drop in their height, casting a shadow on the lower clouds. He says it might be caused by ice being thrown up particularly high in the atmosphere near the eye by intense thunderstorms, and then being spread in just one direction as the storm turns.


Link


I wonder if it has anything to do with dry air intrusion.
Quoting WaterWitch11:


so confused on the el nino subject. does it mean rain for the us west coast?

You too huh? In general, an El Nino means more winter rain for California. I don't know how long you've lived in California but 1982-83 and 1986-1987 were the last times there was a particularly strong El Nino, which led to flooding in the Russian River basin and the Sacramento Valley. Strong El Nino years almost always lead to serious flooding. Weak to moderate years generally have more winter rainfall with less flooding. The weaker the El Nino, the less it changes the underlying rainfall pattern at all.
Quoting 58. sar2401:



Link

This study relates to high levels of UV radiation at very high altitudes in the Andes. Given the very high rates of data loss, and the fact these readings were taken at some of the highest and driest altitudes in the world, it hardly seems surprising that these supposed reading would be bad for plant and animal life. It's one of the reasons one finds very little in the way of plant and animal life in the high Andes.

but the thing is as ALWAYS if it changes in one place then those effects are felt somewhere else
Neoguri and the next typhoon should be able to initiate a WWB.
Quoting 118. sar2401:


You too huh? In general, an El Nino means more winter rain for California. I don't know how long you've lived in California but 1982-83 and 1986-1987 were the last times there was a particularly strong El Nino, which led to flooding in the Russian River basin and the Sacramento Valley. Strong El Nino years almost always lead to serious flooding. Weak to moderate years generally have more winter rainfall with less flooding. The weaker the El Nino, the less it changes the underlying rainfall pattern at all.

yes i remember
I've never seen the GFS portray pressures quite this low. That's 910mb, if you can't read it.

Quoting 95. StormTrackerScott:



Models must be picking up on another warm pool organizing because look at this at the end of the year. This enso plume matches to cfsv2 plume.




Scott, please don't think I'm always trying to prove you wrong, I'm not I promise, you do make excellent points on many topics in this blog, but you can't justify what you said with that image. You're taking a few members that increase the warm pool and are making a forecast that the warm pool will return. A more fair forecast based on that image you posted would be to claim equal chances of all three scenarios occurring (persistence, increase, or decrease of the warm pool). In that image, I don't see one forecast justifiable except a forecast of EC for all three occurrences. That is the whole point of making these ENSO plumes :) . Let me know your thoughts.
Quoting 115. StormWx:



Looks like your El Nino predictions are likley busto. The great thing about weather is that you can try again! So go, whatcha think will happen next? None of the models predicted negative values. :0)

The 3.4 is now NEGATIVE.



So is the 4.


Yep they are negative at -0.009 and -0.097 -_-
Hey all. Interesting weather outlook in doc's blog entry: The return of the polarvortex (in summer fashion) for the US means at the same time: warmer than normal weather for Europe (look at the map in the entry) as it has been last winter. Indeed there already has been a rumor in my German weatherblog by a knowing member that this wetter pattern may return soon. But I haven't read over there that this should be due to Neoguri ...

Currently our strange and unusual weather conditions in Germany/Central Europe, caused by low Michaela, still persist. Eastern Germany (Dresden) has been its center earlier this morning with low pressure of 1000hpa. And the circulation which also includes a borderline of southwestern cooler moist from the Atlantic and warm air through the (south)eastern backdoor from the Mediterranean, had/still has the strange effect that a large bow of quite violent thunderstorms move into Northern Germany and now Benelux from the east or even northeast! Guess something like this would be strange in the US too, no?

No more violent storms in my southwestern region. But until this morning we got a very good soaking as whole Germany did (some flooding and high waters included). Low "Michaela" really was a mostly beneficent drought buster.

Some fresh but saved loops and pics of this rare weather situation (updating loops on my own blog; don't want to spam the main blog with it):


Movement of lightning (northern Germany and Benelux on the top of the map).


Temperature of cloudtops, showing the mcs (mesoscale convective system) moving over northern Germany from the east.


Airmasses over Europe.


Vorticity. Source with more maps.


Strange differences of temperatures (Celsius) in Germany this morning (10am): Very warm at the coast of the Baltic Sea in the northeast, quite cold in the Southwest.

Mesoscale Discussion from Estofex for earlier this afternoon, Valid: Wed 09 Jul 2014 13:00 to Wed 09 Jul 2014 17:00 UTC, Issued: Wed 09 Jul 2014 13:19, Forecaster: PUCIK
... Northern Germany ...
Satellite and radar loops show thunderstorm developing in bands across the area, aligned mostly parallel to the prevailing easterly flow. Surface observations reveal pronounced convergence zone with low T-Td spreads and dew point values between 17 and 20C. Bergen 12 UTC sounding looks particularly menacing with respect to the excessive rainfall - with SBCAPE value around 2000 J/kg, PW over 40 mm, high RH in the whole troposphere. These conditions, combined with the fact that mean tropospheric flow (around 15 m/s) is parallel to the convergence zone, point to a very high threat of cell training and subsequent excessive rainfall events.
Moreover, with LLS above 10 m/s and low LCLs, if storms can develop rotation, perhaps aided if they move over the convergence zone with enhanced vorticity, tornadoes can not be ruled out.



Recent video from the borderland of Germany and the Netherland with a storm moving in.
Quoting 46. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Was it like this in 1992 before Andrew?


Many people said it was unseasonable warm and humid prior to Andrew, but it was also very dry. It is anything but dry now.
Surprised they haven't issued a Severe T-Storm Warning for this area...It's pretty rough out there...

The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a

* Flood Advisory for... east central Palm Beach County in Southeast Florida...

* until 430 PM EDT

* at 226 PM EDT...Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms with heavy rain occurring from Royal Palm Beach to West Palm Beach. Street flooding was occurring in downtown West Palm Beach with flooded roads reported at Dixie and fern. The thunderstorms will move slowly to the south with additional street flooding expected.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include... West Palm Beach...Palm Beach Gardens...Lake Worth... Riviera Beach...Palm Beach...downtown West Palm Beach.
India and Pakistan, two countries that could easily go to war over one river, the Indus have taken steps to lessen that chance. India is investing 91.2 Billion to build 500 desalination plants and Pakistan 300 million to build 12, including a huge one in Karachi. A new technology is on the horizon, graphene filters that are paper thin that will replace and revolutionize desalination and the filters used now that don't economically work. And the South Sea so sought after by many countries in the East holds maybe up to 200 billion barrels of oil. There's a reason the House Committee on Foreign Affairs have met recently over resource wars of the future. China's slow peaceful rise is over. They haven't built a city the size of Chicago and Houston put together and left it empty for nothing. And other empty cities have been built. This isn't some oversight or mistake, they are planning for the future. Some 300 million homes go not occupied too there. China is empire building, they are everywhere in the world now, from Russia, South America, Africa, and their investments in ownership in America is shocking if often untold.
Quoting 123. boltdwright:



Scott, please don't think I'm always trying to prove you wrong, I'm not I promise, you do make excellent points on many topics in this blog, but you can't justify what you said with that image. You're taking a few members that increase the warm pool and are making a forecast that the warm pool will return. A more fair forecast based on that image you posted would be to claim equal chances of all three scenarios occurring (persistence, increase, or decrease of the warm pool). In that image, I don't see one forecast justifiable except a forecast of EC for all three occurrences. That is the whole point of making these ENSO plumes :) . Let me know your thoughts.


I agree with you as nothing is 100 percent but each year that goes by the chances of El-Nino increase whether its this year or next. What I do see is what could be another subsurface warm pool trying to gain steam near the dateline. What could happen based on some of the models is El-nino starting this fall and lasting into next summer and I sure hope that doesn't pan out.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Meteorologists around the world were intrigued by a wrinkle seen in the image above, like a tail coming out of the eye of the storm. These "cloud cliffs" are sometimes seen in strong cyclones but nobody knows what causes them. "It's a kind of odd feature that's got people talking," says Brian McNoldy from the University of Miami in Florida.

Although it looks like a scar where there are no clouds, McNoldy says it's really a sudden drop in their height, casting a shadow on the lower clouds. He says it might be caused by ice being thrown up particularly high in the atmosphere near the eye by intense thunderstorms, and then being spread in just one direction as the storm turns.


Link

I don't have a clue on the "cloud cliff" thing although the shadow effect is a little unconvincing. An interesting excerpt from the article -

Typhoon Neoguri is probably the biggest storm in decades to hit Japan so early, says Hiroyuki Murakami from the University of Hawaii in Honolulu. "Normally, the peak typhoon season for Japan is between September and October." He says the strength and the timing of the storm is likely to be a result of the likely El Niño later this year.

The warmer water in the eastern Pacific is pulling their genesis that way, Murakami says, giving them more time to grow in strength by the time they make landfall around Japan.


First, there are a lot of "likely's" there. Second, he's describing exactly the opposite of what happened. Neoguri reached maximum strength well out into the Pacific and has steadily weakened as it approached Japan. Maybe that's the real effect of El Nino. I don't know the answer, but a supporting argument with the opposite of what happened seems a little weak.
Quoting 98. Tropicsweatherpr:

Tx13,I know is only a invest and I am talking of 92W but have you made an analysis of the factors that may lead to what the models despict and that is a strong Typhoon and what track it may take?



Haven't really looked at it much. I do see that the 12z ECMWF isn't showing development while the 12z GFS shows it becoming a 910mb cyclone, so that's an issue. :)
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I agree with you as nothing is 100 percent but each year that goes by the chances of El-Nino increase whether its this year or next. What I do see is what could be another subsurface warm pool trying to gain steam near the dateline. What could happen based on some of the models is El-nino starting this fall and lasting into next summer and I sure hope that doesn't pan out.

That statement is also not supported by evidence. Just because an El Nino has to occur at some point doesn't mean that point is this year or even next year. We have a total of about 70 years of reliable evidence about this phenomena. We have no clue about the average return period over time or the longest period we've remained mostly neutral. There seems to evidence for all three phases right now. That seems to be the most reasonable summary of where we're at, not looking at what could be some subsurface pool of warm water which is not in evidence.
Quoting 130. sar2401:


I don't have a clue on the "cloud cliff" thing although the shadow effect is a little unconvincing. An interesting excerpt from the article -

Typhoon Neoguri is probably the biggest storm in decades to hit Japan so early, says Hiroyuki Murakami from the University of Hawaii in Honolulu. "Normally, the peak typhoon season for Japan is between September and October." He says the strength and the timing of the storm is likely to be a result of the likely El Niño later this year.

The warmer water in the eastern Pacific is pulling their genesis that way, Murakami says, giving them more time to grow in strength by the time they make landfall around Japan.


First, there are a lot of "likely's" there. Second, he's describing exactly the opposite of what happened. Neoguri reached maximum strength well out into the Pacific and has steadily weakened as it approached Japan. Maybe that's the real effect of El Nino. I don't know the answer, but a supporting argument with the opposite of what happened seems a little weak.


I would defer to his local knowledge as I have little to no knowledge of West Pacific typhoon climatology.
Disregard, lol.
I agree with you as nothing is 100 percent but each year that goes by the chances of El-Nino increase whether its this year or next. What I do see is what could be another subsurface warm pool trying to gain steam near the dateline. What could happen based on some of the models is El-nino starting this fall and lasting into next summer and I sure hope that doesn't pan out.

that has been there all along..it's just now entering the frame is all
Quoting 82. GatorWX:

Soup anybody?



Been thundering from storms lingering just offshore 4 mornings in a row now. The last two days, it's lasted hours and hours. Very strange pattern indeed, although my area hasn't had too much rain. We've mainly just been getting the blow off from the cells offshore, not amounting to a whole lot. Last year, the flow was much more south to north oriented, where this year, west to east. We had a very unusual pattern last year as well.
Been getting similar kinds of storms with no rain... yesterday afternoon / evening I was sure we'd have torrential downpours... output? NADA. But rain in and of itself is a relatively unusual phenomenon after the first week of July in any case.

Unusual.
This is a time-longitude plot. The y-axis shows dates while the x-axis shows longitude. For reference, the West Pacific extends from 110E to 180W, the central Pacific extends from 180W to 140W, and the East Pacific extends eastward from 140W. Orange colors indicate westerly winds, blue colors indicate easterly winds.

It doesn't lie. El Nino is at a standstill and has been since late April. Posting thoughts on how things have played out for the past 2 and a half months isn't exactly following short-term trends and does not show impatience.

we've been getting clobbered every day with thunderstorms here in South Florida. Not unusual except for the fact that we're getting them morning, afternoon, and evening. That's not our normal 1 to2 pm everyday storm pattern. Been very wet the last week. I live near Ft. Lauderdale, but further inland, closer to the Everglades.
This is a time-longitude plot. The x-axis shows dates while the y-axis shows longitude. For reference, the West Pacific extends from 110E to 180W, the central Pacific extends from 180W to 140W, and the East Pacific extends eastward from 140W. Orange colors indicate westerly winds, blue colors indicate easterly winds.

It doesn't lie. El Nino is at a standstill and has been since late April. Posting thoughts on how things have played out for the past 2 and a half months isn't exactly following short-term trends and does not show impatience.


while i agree with you as what you show..and your comment on impatience.....i must ask...would if the hyped and wrong model forecasts that occurred during the spring barrier time of inaccuracy had not occurred...and we had only the winter and summer model runs to go by.....would we even be having this conversation or would we be saying...well...all along we expected this to happen come fall.....
Quoting WaterWitch11:

but the thing is as ALWAYS if it changes in one place then those effects are felt somewhere else

Not unless the UV level at sea level will, by some mysterious process, be equal that seen at 25,000 feet in the Andes. I have seen zero evidence the CFC pollution is sufficient for anything like this to occur. CFC pollution has been decreasing over the years. There hasn't been a change that we know of in the Andes. Anyone who has spent time at altitude can tell you the sun is intense and the air is dry. This is just the first time we've had some incomplete measures of how intense and dry.
Quoting 75. MiamiNative:



Thunder is starting here in Down Town Miami, rain on the way. Rained a bit earlier in South Dade and its still overcast down there.

[Located in Miami Florida]


It is crazy dark out down in south dade right now...
Quoting 137. TropicalAnalystwx13:

This is a time-longitude plot. The x-axis shows dates while the y-axis shows longitude. For reference, the West Pacific extends from 110E to 180W, the central Pacific extends from 180W to 140W, and the East Pacific extends eastward from 140W. Orange colors indicate westerly winds, blue colors indicate easterly winds.

It doesn't lie. El Nino is at a standstill and has been since late April. Posting thoughts on how things have played out for the past 2 and a half months isn't exactly following short-term trends and does not show impatience.




Thank you, TA. Very interesting map. Past weeks I sometimes had a look at Earthwind in order to find some of those promised strong westerlies in the Pacific, but zero ...
Quoting 93. Sfloridacat5:

Currently, lots of very loud thunder at my location (S.E. Fort Myers). Hopefully I get the rain today.



We finally got nailed here, picked up very needed 2 inches of rain around in 30 minutes and we had some terrible lightning here, one particular strike left a mini fireball and smoke in its wake, I think it hit something electrical, either that or it ripped apart a tree.

Locally we have missed a lot of the heaviest rainfall at my place much of the rainy season, but a lot of them have come close enough to give us some serious lightning. One thing I've noticed is that thunderstorms have been unusually strong for activity off the water, especially in terms of lightning. I've seen some terrible lightning this year with thunderstorms off the water. Usually activity off the water just produces a lot of heavy rain some times strong winds with just occasional lightning.
Quoting 137. TropicalAnalystwx13:

This is a time-longitude plot. The x-axis shows dates while the y-axis shows longitude. For reference, the West Pacific extends from 110E to 180W, the central Pacific extends from 180W to 140W, and the East Pacific extends eastward from 140W. Orange colors indicate westerly winds, blue colors indicate easterly winds.

It doesn't lie. El Nino is at a standstill and has been since late April. Posting thoughts on how things have played out for the past 2 and a half months isn't exactly following short-term trends and does not show impatience.




Isn't it the opposite??
Didn't somebody say there was an el nino coming this summer?



Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


I would defer to his local knowledge as I have little to no knowledge of West Pacific typhoon climatology.

I don't either but his description of what usually happens is at odds with what actually happened with Neoguri. If I was to say that the early debut of Neoguri was "likely" caused by El Nino (as he did), I could only assume that the storm's history was also likely caused by El Nino. I don't think there's proof of either statement.
Quoting 139. ricderr:

This is a time-longitude plot. The x-axis shows dates while the y-axis shows longitude. For reference, the West Pacific extends from 110E to 180W, the central Pacific extends from 180W to 140W, and the East Pacific extends eastward from 140W. Orange colors indicate westerly winds, blue colors indicate easterly winds.

It doesn't lie. El Nino is at a standstill and has been since late April. Posting thoughts on how things have played out for the past 2 and a half months isn't exactly following short-term trends and does not show impatience.


while i agree with you as what you show..and your comment on impatience.....i must ask...would if the hyped and wrong model forecasts that occurred during the spring barrier time of inaccuracy had not occurred...and we had only the winter and summer model runs to go by.....would we even be having this conversation or would we be saying...well...all along we expected this to happen come fall.....

I've gotta go right now, but I just wanted to let you know I've seen your post and I'll respond to it when I get back.
Quoting 137. TropicalAnalystwx13:

This is a time-longitude plot. The x-axis shows dates while the y-axis shows longitude. For reference, the West Pacific extends from 110E to 180W, the central Pacific extends from 180W to 140W, and the East Pacific extends eastward from 140W. Orange colors indicate westerly winds, blue colors indicate easterly winds.

It doesn't lie. El Nino is at a standstill and has been since late April. Posting thoughts on how things have played out for the past 2 and a half months isn't exactly following short-term trends and does not show impatience.




We've just had a major typhoon and will likely get another one this week which should initiate good WWB's(Plus the SOI has come down). We've had plenty of these so-called stand stills before. and most of those years turned out to be solid Nino's. In fact 2006 & 09 are perfect examples(1994 was the most extreme case) I agree that a super Nino has sailed but doubting El Nino altogether is a bit pushing it(wink).
Quoting 144. VAbeachhurricanes:



Isn't it the opposite??

Oof, thanks.

Be back later.
Quoting 130. sar2401:


I don't have a clue on the "cloud cliff" thing although the shadow effect is a little unconvincing. An interesting excerpt from the article -

Typhoon Neoguri is probably the biggest storm in decades to hit Japan so early, says Hiroyuki Murakami from the University of Hawaii in Honolulu. "Normally, the peak typhoon season for Japan is between September and October." He says the strength and the timing of the storm is likely to be a result of the likely El Niño later this year.

The warmer water in the eastern Pacific is pulling their genesis that way, Murakami says, giving them more time to grow in strength by the time they make landfall around Japan.


First, there are a lot of "likely's" there. Second, he's describing exactly the opposite of what happened. Neoguri reached maximum strength well out into the Pacific and has steadily weakened as it approached Japan. Maybe that's the real effect of El Nino. I don't know the answer, but a supporting argument with the opposite of what happened seems a little weak.
NOt really opposite. If the warm pool is further east, storms are likely to strengthen further east as well. Implication to me based on the rest of your quote is that July storms wouldn't stay as large or organised or powerful as this one did because the pool of warm water wouldn't allow them to strengthen as much as it did before it approached Japan. In other words, they'd expect a lot lower impact from other July storms. Storms normally weaken as they approach Japan. That doesn't seem to be what is different for this guy.
Quoting 82. GatorWX:

Soup anybody?



Been thundering from storms lingering just offshore 4 mornings in a row now. The last two days, it's lasted hours and hours. Very strange pattern indeed, although my area hasn't had too much rain. We've mainly just been getting the blow off from the cells offshore, not amounting to a whole lot. Last year, the flow was much more south to north oriented, where this year, west to east. We had a very unusual pattern last year as well.


Actually, last year we had a very typical pattern, a Bermuda high with southeast flow and deep moisture over FL with occasional tropical waves.

Its this year that's been nearly, if not anomalous.

Didn't somebody say there was an el nino coming this summer?


heck with summer...some on here were saying that we'd have el nino by last winter
Thanks Dr. for the informative post on the downstream impacts of the Pacific storm on the Polar Jet. Incredible to think that the ripple effect is so significant. Now I am starting to think about atmospheric flows from Asia, and particularly the flow of pollutants and Co2, and the impact on Arctic warming..........................mmmmmmmmmmmm
I just noted that we have a 98E appearing off the west coast of Mexico.
Suggestion that what went through Mid Atlantic yesterday may have been a marginal Derecho.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weath er-gang/wp/2014/07/09/low-end-derecho-may-have-swe pt-through-d-c-s-north-and-west-suburbs-tuesday-ni ght/


I have problems with derecho classification because there is no clear demarcation between bow echoes producing intense damage paths tens of kilometers wide and long and derechos which persist for longer and produce similarly intense damage paths hundreds to over 1000km long and tens to low hundreds of kilometers wide. Both are a consequence of tens of kilometers or wider cold storm outflow creating new storms along its boundary and propagating at the (sometimes very high) speed of the outflow.

The DC event yesterday slowed just as it reached my area fortunately. I remember an event in August 2000 or so that formed in Wisconsin near Madison and propagated south and east as an intense derecho to the western DC suburbs and then just fell apart 50km west of me... fortunately!
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I wonder if it has anything to do with dry air intrusion.

It might be...or maybe it has something to do with the ERC...or maybe it's really a "cloud cliff". The only thing I know for sure is that, if there were aircraft flying into that storm, we've be a lot closer to an answer about this and a lot of other aspects of the storm. Unfortunately, the Japanese government views this as an extravagance so, unless they can convince the "Hello Kitty" company to fund hurricane hunters in exchange for pink airplanes covered in cute stickers, that's not likely to happen.
Quoting 156. georgevandenberghe:

Suggestion that what went through Mid Atlantic yesterday may have been a marginal Derecho.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weath er-gang/wp/2014/07/09/low-end-derecho-may-have-swe pt-through-d-c-s-north-and-west-suburbs-tuesday-ni ght/


I have problems with derecho classification because there is no clear demarcation between bow echoes producing intense damage paths tens of kilometers wide and long and derechos which persist for longer and produce similarly intense damage paths hundreds to over 1000km long and tens to low hundreds of kilometers wide. Both are a consequence of tens of kilometers or wider cold storm outflow creating new storms along its boundary and propagating at the (sometimes very high) speed of the outflow.

The DC event yesterday slowed just as it reached my area fortunately. I remember an event in August 2000 or so that formed in Wisconsin near Madison and propagated south and east as an intense derecho to the western DC suburbs and then just fell apart 50km west of me... fortunately!
Are some of the trees changing color around your area?
RAIN BABY RAIN!!!!!!!......we're finally getting some here in el paso....might be our tenth that was predicted for this week
Quoting 43. Grothar:



In South Florida, it has been bringing some of the highest humidities in years and hot, hot, hot. It is indeed an odd pattern for this long.


Time for a cool off storm then. as long as it doesn't come as named cool off storm.
Quoting georgevandenberghe:
Suggestion that what went through Mid Atlantic yesterday may have been a marginal Derecho.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weath er-gang/wp/2014/07/09/low-end-derecho-may-have-swe pt-through-d-c-s-north-and-west-suburbs-tuesday-ni ght/


I have problems with derecho classification because there is no clear demarcation between bow echoes producing intense damage paths tens of kilometers wide and long and derechos which persist for longer and produce similarly intense damage paths hundreds to over 1000km long and tens to low hundreds of kilometers wide. Both are a consequence of tens of kilometers or wider cold storm outflow creating new storms along its boundary and propagating at the (sometimes very high) speed of the outflow.

The DC event yesterday slowed just as it reached my area fortunately. I remember an event in August 2000 or so that formed in Wisconsin near Madison and propagated south and east as an intense derecho to the western DC suburbs and then just fell apart 50km west of me... fortunately!

I don't know what a low end derecho is supposed to be. The NWS says it's characterized by a fast-moving squall line with bow echo, has winds of greater than 58 mph, has a swath of damaging winds at least 250 miles wide, and lasts more than 6 hours. It seems like yesterday's front didn't meet several of the criteria. However, it also seems as if the term "derecho" has become a lot more flexible since it has started to commonly crop up, and now is used to describe any front with severe thunderstorms winds, concentrated damage, and a classic looking bow echo. I guess yesterday's event, or any similar event, is now described as a derecho.
Quoting PlazaRed:
I just noted that we have a 98E appearing off the west coast of Mexico.

Don't see it at the NHC site. All I see is "Disturbance 1", which isn't an invest. Where are you seeing it?
Quoting 137. TropicalAnalystwx13:

This is a time-longitude plot. The y-axis shows dates while the x-axis shows longitude. For reference, the West Pacific extends from 110E to 180W, the central Pacific extends from 180W to 140W, and the East Pacific extends eastward from 140W. Orange colors indicate westerly winds, blue colors indicate easterly winds.

It doesn't lie. El Nino is at a standstill and has been since late April. Posting thoughts on how things have played out for the past 2 and a half months isn't exactly following short-term trends and does not show impatience.




Standstill? 3 month running averages: FMA -0.5C, MAM - 0.1C, AMJ 0.2C that looks like progression and not a standstill, Monthly anomaly April 0.24C, May 0.46, June 0.46 again, a positive trend source: Link.

I'll make sure to drop the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the NCDC a line and let them know the people here at Dr. Masters' blog have decided El Nino is a bust for this year and that they should probably go look for new jobs, we have it covered.

My comment was never about people making educated guesses based on data, it was about people declaring busts based on incomplete information. That is impatient and premature. Everyday we get a daily SST update with another uninformed comment about El Nino being over and some short, strange article that Peru has declared El Nino over before it even started...
Quoting 160. ricderr:
RAIN BABY RAIN!!!!!!!......we're finally getting some here in el paso....might be our tenth that was predicted for this week


Meanwhile in California...

Standstill? 3 month running averages: FMA -0.5C, MAM - 0.1C, AMJ 0.2C that looks like progression and not a standstill, Monthly anomaly April 0.24C, May 0.46, June 0.46 again, a positive trend source: Link.

I'll make sure to drop the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the NCDC a line and let them know the people here at Dr. Masters' blog are have decided El Nino is a bust for this year and that they should probably go look for new jobs, we have it covered.



ahem...you aint heard me say bust yet
A denier friend of mine brought up this article: http://dailycaller.com/2014/06/30/noaa-quietly-rei nstates-july-1936-as-the-hottest-month-on-record/
I had no response. Can't believe it's true.
Quoting 122. CybrTeddy:

I've never seen the GFS portray pressures quite this low. That's 910mb, if you can't read it.




I think the GFS brought Neoguri down to 918 mb at one point. I'm not too sure what to make of it yet though, as the CMC shows a different track, the navgem shows nothing yet and neither does the ECMWF.
Quoting BahaHurican:
NOt really opposite. If the warm pool is further east, storms are likely to strengthen further east as well. Implication to me based on the rest of your quote is that July storms wouldn't stay as large or organised or powerful as this one did because the pool of warm water wouldn't allow them to strengthen as much as it did before it approached Japan. In other words, they'd expect a lot lower impact from other July storms. Storms normally weaken as they approach Japan. That doesn't seem to be what is different for this guy.

The way I read the quote is that Neoguri was early "likely" because of El Nino, and that the warm water was further out in the Pacific allowing the storms to get bigger. The warm pool I have no problem with. The part I do is that is it's "giving them more time to grow in strength by the time they make landfall around Japan". It grew in strength long before it reach Japan and got weaker the closer it got to Japan. The implication seemed to be that El Nino would play a part in stronger typhoons hitting Japan, and Neoguri's behavior was the opposite of that idea.
Quoting Birkenstocks:
Not you again. "Denier friend"...yeah, right. Bye now.
Quoting 164. Naga5000:



Standstill? 3 month running averages: FMA -0.5C, MAM - 0.1C, AMJ 0.2C that looks like progression and not a standstill, Monthly anomaly April 0.24C, May 0.46, June 0.46 again, a positive trend source: Link.

I'll make sure to drop the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the NCDC a line and let them know the people here at Dr. Masters' blog have decided El Nino is a bust for this year and that they should probably go look for new jobs, we have it covered.

My comment was never about people making educated guesses based on data, it was about people declaring busts based on incomplete information. That is impatient and premature. Everyday we get a daily SST update with another uninformed comment about El Nino being over and some short, strange article that Peru has declared El Nino over before it even started...



Hi Naga5000, booming heavily here in Seminole County. Picked up another .61" of rain today with maybe another round this evening.

Meanwhile in California...


sorry about that pedley...thought some of this moisture from mexico might have made it your way.....we're at a whoping 0.78 inches for the year
Rainfall totals the last 14 days.

The reds are 6" to 8" of rain with some 10" amounts. Impressive!

Quoting 171. StormTrackerScott:



Hi Naga5000, booming heavily here in Seminole County. Picked up another .61" of rain today with maybe another round this evening.




About to pour here downtown. I missed the storms last night while I was in class at UCF, but when I got home I noticed we picked up over an inch from 5:30 - 9:30. A friend of mine out measured 2.3 inch per hour rain rate at one point. Impressive.
Long-time lurker here. Thought I'd share the picture I took of some lightning over Orlando last night:

Couldn't seem to embed the image, so here's a link:

Lightning over Orlando

Long-time lurker here. Thought I'd share the picture I took of some lightning over Orlando last night:

Couldn't seem to embed the image, so here's a link:




nice...are the purples natural or enhanced?
Quoting 163. sar2401:


Don't see it at the NHC site. All I see is "Disturbance 1", which isn't an invest. Where are you seeing it?


its showing on the wu weather map
Quoting 167. Birkenstocks:

A denier friend of mine brought up this article: http://dailycaller.com/2014/06/30/noaa-quietly-rei nstates-july-1936-as-the-hottest-month-on-record/
I had no response. Can't believe it's true.

Why can't you believe it? That's how science works: observations and calculations are checked and rechecked and re-rechecked, and when something is found to be in error, it's fixed. Contrary to what conspiratorial know-nothings like Anthony Watts try to tell us, that's just the way things are in RealityLand.
Meanwhile back in NOLA....


10-year sentence for ex-New Orleans Mayor Nagin


Link
Quoting 159. Climate175:

Are some of the trees changing color around your area?


There is the isolated yellow leaf but that's normal this time of year. Also some are browning and dropping but that's also normal response to short term dryness and happens most summers here.
Quoting 139. ricderr:

while i agree with you as what you show..and your comment on impatience.....i must ask...would if the hyped and wrong model forecasts that occurred during the spring barrier time of inaccuracy had not occurred...and we had only the winter and summer model runs to go by.....would we even be having this conversation or would we be saying...well...all along we expected this to happen come fall.....

It wouldn't have made a difference. The heat was there, but as it came to the surface it didn't spread across the Pacific from east to west like expected. Here's some random thoughts I'd put in my blog about it over the last day...

ESPI was -.37, now it's -.48...It's tanking & signaling a cooling...it's been cool for a month & enso has certainly followed.. SOI is responding to El Nino but it's a follower at this point & the daily amount is pointing to cooling again. Alot of heat surfaced & left the ocean without spreading back to the west like usual...Should see some of that heat in the atmosphere, notable arctic melt year, epic rainfalls & mudslides continue..(See the new lake China got this week?)... The EPAC hurricanes have been helping disperse it too. There is still some warm water floating around, especially 1 & 2. Where it ends up is the question. Region 3.4 is the cool spot right now. Even if the heat starts spreading west, if it's long enough to get an El Nino declared is looking iffy since there's a lack of strength of Kelvin wave & there isn't a lot of subsurface heat left. The sub surface anomaly is nearly played out.. 65% chance of seeing some more el nino conditions. 35% chance of El nino being declared.

Yeah el nino isn't out of the question. More El Nino conditions is likely. But for a declared one, it takes five months of three month averages .5 or above. We don't even have one month of that average yet & the sub surface heat is greatly diminished, with some cold returning. This heat so far has not spread back west. It could & then even linger. This has been a tougher year for predicting it. It started doing it's thing, then we didn't really get the sun cycle peak, ESPI & SOI haven't responded alot or held & the Kelvin waves diminished. Neoguri might help, though kind of north. India's monsoons don't seem to be contributing so much. I should find that Kelvin wave map to really double check it.

Quoting sar2401:

I don't know what a low end derecho is supposed to be. The NWS says it's characterized by a fast-moving squall line with bow echo, has winds of greater than 58 mph, has a swath of damaging winds at least 250 miles wide, and lasts more than 6 hours. It seems like yesterday's front didn't meet several of the criteria. However, it also seems as if the term "derecho" has become a lot more flexible since it has started to commonly crop up, and now is used to describe any front with severe thunderstorms winds, concentrated damage, and a classic looking bow echo. I guess yesterday's event, or any similar event, is now described as a derecho.


The damage swathe has to be 250 miles long, not wide. This one met the criterion for length but was marginal for intensity and I don't think it lasted for six hours either. But my point and problem is the length and duration numbers are arbitrary and smaller bowed lines do the same type of damage over a smaller (but still much larger than individual cell ) area. There isn't any clear scale separation between bow echoes and derechos other than the length and duration numbers.

Modified 0417EDT. According to the CWG post the event lasted for 8-9 hours from Ohio to the Northeast..

183. SuzK
"While the remnants of Typhoon Neoguri will not impact the U.S. directly, the large and powerful nature of this storm has set in motion a chain-reaction set of events that will dramatically alter the path of the jet stream and affect weather patterns across the entire Northern Hemisphere next week. Neoguri will cause an acceleration of the North Pacific jet stream, causing a large amount of warm, moist tropical air to push over the North Pacific. This will amplify a trough low pressure over Alaska, causing a ripple effect in the jet stream over western North America, where a strong ridge of high pressure will develop, and over the Midwestern U.S., where a strong trough of low pressure will form. This jet stream pattern is similar to the nasty"Polar Vortex" pattern that set up during the winter of 2014 over North America, and will cause an unusually cool third week of July over the portions of the Midwest and Ohio Valley, with temperatures 10 - 20°F below average."

Thank you Dr Masters! You are reading my mind today! :)

Both last evening with my mother on the phone, and today with my husband while driving, I spent a chunk of time explaining the thermohaline circulation problems as a result of the Arctic and Greenland thawing and diluting the Gulf Stream with fresh water, thereby weakening it and possibly instigating a new Ice Age. I had seen Neoguri's progress, and understanding her unusual strength for the time of year, I couldn't help but wonder what she would do in the upper latitudes, and how we would pay for her existence here in North America, and more specifically, here in NE Penn, and in Metro Detroit where my beloved reside. There are still northern seagulls in Metro Detroit from the last visit of the polar vortex; I hear them squawk when Im visiting home and they do not have a native tongue. We had arctic owls here in the Middle Atlantic Appalachians throughout the winter. Folks, we live in interesting times. If I were a betting woman, I would say we are in for a helluva winter again. At least someone in the Northern hemisphere is going to get it, Who will it be this time? We may have already passed the tipping point, having accelerated it ourselves through a 400+ppm concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere, 25% above the historical norm, unparalleled for over 800K (or is it Millions? This is why I'm not really a scientist by profession, terrible memory). Well! Interesting times call for interesting measures? Where will we be in 10 years with all the oil fields in decline and everyone is freezing beyond measure in a drastically changed climate? Any betters out there? Buckle up!
ENSO falls to negative
Quoting 179. Randrewl:
Meanwhile back in NOLA....


10-year sentence for ex-New Orleans Mayor Nagin


Link


It took WAY too long to lock him up...
Quoting 118. sar2401:


You too huh? In general, an El Nino means more winter rain for California. I don't know how long you've lived in California but 1982-83 and 1986-1987 were the last times there was a particularly strong El Nino, which led to flooding in the Russian River basin and the Sacramento Valley. Strong El Nino years almost always lead to serious flooding. Weak to moderate years generally have more winter rainfall with less flooding. The weaker the El Nino, the less it changes the underlying rainfall pattern at all.
Isn't California suffering a big drought right now? That would be the opposite of what an El Niño brings to the state. Isn't la Niña the one that brings dry conditions to the state?
Quoting 173. StormTrackerScott:

Rainfall totals the last 14 days.

The reds are 6" to 8" of rain with some 10" amounts. Impressive!




Do you have one of those maps for South Florida, Scott? It is getting serious around here. We are way above average, but I cant find a decent map.

Found one of the wave tracker/ forecasts.. the one on the bottom right.. Looks like the Kelvin Waves shifted to the south Pacific & then diminished..
Quoting 163. sar2401:


Don't see it at the NHC site. All I see is "Disturbance 1", which isn't an invest. Where are you seeing it?


This is from the NOAA designated as 98E

98E

Quoting 187. Grothar:



Do you have one of those maps for South Florida, Scott? It is getting serious around here. We are way above average, but I cant find a decent map.




You are looking for this site Gro, http://water.weather.gov/precip/

Select your region and you can find what you need. Please note these are RADAR-ESTIMATED, not actual values.
Quoting TimSoCal:
Meanwhile in California...

This is y'alls dry season anyway so no one expected it to rain there anyway. Current reservoir levels will continue to drop.
Quoting NttyGrtty:


It took WAY too long to lock him up...



Yep...I can't argue that man.

Quoting 181. Skyepony:



One thing I find interesting is that oceanic Kelvin waves keep appearing in the eastern Indian Ocean, but they don't seem to surface anywhere. I wonder where that extra heat is going? This is also at odds with what the Indian Ocean should be doing during an El Nino event(positive IOD).

Quoting 176. ricderr:

Long-time lurker here. Thought I'd share the picture I took of some lightning over Orlando last night:

Couldn't seem to embed the image, so here's a link:




nice...are the purples natural or enhanced?


They're pretty true to life, but yeah, there's some white balance trickery going on there.
Quoting 2010hurricane:
ENSO falls to negative



Thanks for that info.
So now we just have to slog it out on our own heating! LOL!
Quoting 191. boltdwright:



You are looking for this site Gro, http://water.weather.gov/precip/

Select your region and you can find what you need. Please note these are RADAR-ESTIMATED, not actual values.


Thanks, Bolt
Those temps in the north of Siberia on the coast of about 20/C for next week are interesting, plus the north coast of Canada is getting the heat treatment as well. Should mean everything from melting permafrost to tinder dry scrub fires.
Meanwhile here on the news in Europe tonight, the temps for Oslo Norway are predicted to be 30/C tomorrow and 29/C for Stockholm.
We had 39/C in Cordoba Spain today, maybe warming up a bit more to the weekend.

Should be a bit of an unusual time in the Mid West states next week with the low temps.
Things in California are not going to change much if the El Nino fails to materialise.
severe weather in the northeast again day 4 of severe thunderstorm watches
7 day precipitation map

Quoting 187. Grothar:



Do you have one of those maps for South Florida, Scott? It is getting serious around here. We are way above average, but I cant find a decent map.




Gro, I'm sure you know of this site!

Link
rainy season sure is puzzling.. friends all around tampa bay getting inches of rain. in riverview where im at.. literally a sprinkle yesterday afternoon thats it. lots of thunder and lightning but no rain.
Quoting 163. sar2401:


Don't see it at the NHC site. All I see is "Disturbance 1", which isn't an invest. Where are you seeing it?

On the opening page of the blog where it shows the global map and in a small box the SST anomalies. Says 98E.
I see Grother got a picture of it from the orbiting eyes of Oden or some similar source!
Quoting PlazaRed:

On the opening page of the blog where it shows the global map and in a small box the SST anomalies. Says 98E.
I see Grother got a picture of it from the orbiting eyes of Oden or some similar source!

Ah, never mind, I see it on the Navy site now. I will plead old age and ignorance> ;-0
Quoting allancalderini:
Isn't California suffering a big drought right now? That would be the opposite of what an El Niño brings to the state. Isn't la Niña the one that brings dry conditions to the state?

Yes, it's El Nino that brings rain and La Nina that brings drought, although that's not a perfect answer. We are ENSO neutral now and California is in the middle of one of its worst droughts. At least since 1950, a strong El Nino brings rain, often flooding rain to California in the winter. Anything less than that and what happens becomes less certain.
I've just posted a blog if anyone is interested, I think it turned out pretty well, it is a summary of global tropical cyclone activity so far this year and a look ahead to what we can expect for the rest of this year, in the West Pac, East Pac, and Atlantic. It's a lot of text but feel free to check it out.

Link
Quoting intampa:
rainy season sure is puzzling.. friends all around tampa bay getting inches of rain. in riverview where im at.. literally a sprinkle yesterday afternoon thats it. lots of thunder and lightning but no rain.

Yes, friends in Montgomery have nice green lawns while mine is a pale yellow. They are getting rain right now while I sit here with some scattered clouds and 98 degrees. Sometimes, life just isn't fair. :-)
Hurricane ARTHUR's eye was full of BIRDS!

Just read a news article that says that scientists believe that Hurricane Arthur's eye was full of birds when it was making landfall, just off of the Morehead City, NC area! It was captured on a newer type of radar that measures "Differential Reflectivity."

Most radars capture raindrops or snowflakes that are mostly round and small, but this new type of radar image showed much larger objects mixed with the rain (larger than heavy rain or big hail) in the eye of Arthur ... near the NC coast, just before landfall.

So now, we know that dry air and birds helped contribute to the lower than expected sustained winds as Arthur moved inland! LOL.

Actually, all kidding aside, that is really interesting, and like Arthur ..... Hurricane Hugo's (1989) eye also reportedly had a huge number of birds that were transported from the Caribbean Sea to western North Carolina.

Just an observation: Studying radar loops of Arthur's landfall near Cape Lookout, NC, it appears that some of the main heaviest convection in Arthur (maybe mixing the stronger winds down to the surface) moved from Cape Lookout to Cedar Island, to Ocracoke Island .... as the hurricane moved more easterly with time, and exited off the coast of NC. The strongest sustained hurricane-force winds were possibly located in a very limited area, just to the east and southeast of the eye.

It will be interesting what the NHC report has to say about Arthur, when it is completed!
The dominating overhead subtropical ridge has been postponed yet again in EC FL with the collision of the seabreezes on the east side of the peninsula. Also,

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
520 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

FLC009-097-092200-
/O.CON.KMLB.SV.W.0065.000000T0000Z-140709T2200Z/
OSCEOLA-BREVARD-
520 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL BREVARD AND EAST CENTRAL OSCEOLA COUNTIES...

AT 519 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF HOLOPAW
TO FOREVER FLORIDA...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHEAST
OF HOLOPAW TO 7 MILES SOUTH OF HOLOPAW...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO DEER
PARK...US192

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MILES AN
HOUR AND OR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL. FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IF THE STORM APPROACHES
YOU...SEEK SHELTER IN AN ENCLOSED BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. KEEP
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 2801 8109 2819 8105 2830 8083 2798 8075
TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 255DEG 4KT 2821 8100 2804 8106

$$


MOSES
I see invest 98E IS BACK
Quoting 164. Naga5000:



I'll make sure to drop the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the NCDC a line and let them know the people here at Dr. Masters' blog have decided El Nino is a bust for this year and that they should probably go look for new jobs, we have it covered.


D'oh. I forgot that non-meteorologists weren't allowed to give their opinion on a weather blog. Sorry about that, really. ;)

I should point out that I'm not saying we can't get an El Nino this year. I still think we can. However, chances are that the event will be weak and probably short-lived. I simply offered explanations on why people think it might not be materializing as once thought.
Quoting 148. weatherbro:



We've just had a major typhoon and will likely get another one this week which should initiate good WWB's(Plus the SOI has come down). We've had plenty of these so-called stand stills before. and most of those years turned out to be solid Nino's. In fact 2006 & 09 are perfect examples(1994 was the most extreme case) I agree that a super Nino has sailed but doubting El Nino altogether is a bit pushing it(wink).

Too far away from the equator to have meaningful impact. Neoguri didn't form until climbing above 10N and didn't become a typhoon until 15N.
Quoting 181. Skyepony:


It wouldn't have made a difference. The heat was there, but as it came to the surface it didn't spread across the Pacific from east to west like expected. Here's some random thoughts I'd put in my blog about it over the last day...

ESPI was -.37, now it's -.48...It's tanking & signaling a cooling...it's been cool for a month & enso has certainly followed.. SOI is responding to El Nino but it's a follower at this point & the daily amount is pointing to cooling again. Alot of heat surfaced & left the ocean without spreading back to the west like usual...Should see some of that heat in the atmosphere, notable arctic melt year, epic rainfalls & mudslides continue..(See the new lake China got this week?)... The EPAC hurricanes have been helping disperse it too. There is still some warm water floating around, especially 1 & 2. Where it ends up is the question. Region 3.4 is the cool spot right now. Even if the heat starts spreading west, if it's long enough to get an El Nino declared is looking iffy since there's a lack of strength of Kelvin wave & there isn't a lot of subsurface heat left. The sub surface anomaly is nearly played out.. 65% chance of seeing some more el nino conditions. 35% chance of El nino being declared.

Yeah el nino isn't out of the question. More El Nino conditions is likely. But for a declared one, it takes five months of three month averages .5 or above. We don't even have one month of that average yet & the sub surface heat is greatly diminished, with some cold returning. This heat so far has not spread back west. It could & then even linger. This has been a tougher year for predicting it. It started doing it's thing, then we didn't really get the sun cycle peak, ESPI & SOI haven't responded alot or held & the Kelvin waves diminished. Neoguri might help, though kind of north. India's monsoons don't seem to be contributing so much. I should find that Kelvin wave map to really double check it.



Thanks for responding to this, you covered most of what I was going to mention.
Quoting SuzK:
"While the remnants of Typhoon Neoguri will not impact the U.S. directly, the large and powerful nature of this storm has set in motion a chain-reaction set of events that will dramatically alter the path of the jet stream and affect weather patterns across the entire Northern Hemisphere next week. Neoguri will cause an acceleration of the North Pacific jet stream, causing a large amount of warm, moist tropical air to push over the North Pacific. This will amplify a trough low pressure over Alaska, causing a ripple effect in the jet stream over western North America, where a strong ridge of high pressure will develop, and over the Midwestern U.S., where a strong trough of low pressure will form. This jet stream pattern is similar to the nasty"Polar Vortex" pattern that set up during the winter of 2014 over North America, and will cause an unusually cool third week of July over the portions of the Midwest and Ohio Valley, with temperatures 10 - 20°F below average."

Thank you Dr Masters! You are reading my mind today! :)

Both last evening with my mother on the phone, and today with my husband while driving, I spent a chunk of time explaining the thermohaline circulation problems as a result of the Arctic and Greenland thawing and diluting the Gulf Stream with fresh water, thereby weakening it and possibly instigating a new Ice Age. I had seen Neoguri's progress, and understanding her unusual strength for the time of year, I couldn't help but wonder what she would do in the upper latitudes, and how we would pay for her existence here in North America, and more specifically, here in NE Penn, and in Metro Detroit where my beloved reside. There are still northern seagulls in Metro Detroit from the last visit of the polar vortex; I hear them squawk when Im visiting home and they do not have a native tongue. We had arctic owls here in the Middle Atlantic Appalachians throughout the winter. Folks, we live in interesting times. If I were a betting woman, I would say we are in for a helluva winter again. At least someone in the Northern hemisphere is going to get it, Who will it be this time? We may have already passed the tipping point, having accelerated it ourselves through a 400+ppm concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere, 25% above the historical norm, unparalleled for over 800K (or is it Millions? This is why I'm not really a scientist by profession, terrible memory). Well! Interesting times call for interesting measures? Where will we be in 10 years with all the oil fields in decline and everyone is freezing beyond measure in a drastically changed climate? Any betters out there? Buckle up!

Ice age? Freezing to death? Yes, I'm a betting man. How much do you want to put up?
Evening all. Just drove home through some rain showers. I was expecting them to die away like yesterday, but we did actually get a few showers, especially across the central part of the island.



BTW, did anybody else see this notice on the NASA sat. img. viewers' website?

GOES East 1-km Infrared Weather Satellite Image

We will be affected by a building-wide power outage that is expected to last from Friday afternoon, July 11, 2014 through Monday morning, July 14, 2014. During this time, access to this web server and real-time GOES imagery will be unavailable. We apologize for the inconvenience.


Quoting 167. Birkenstocks:

A denier friend of mine brought up this article: http://dailycaller.com/2014/06/30/noaa-quietly-rei nstates-july-1936-as-the-hottest-month-on-record/
I had no response. Can't believe it's true.


For what it's worth, I think that you need to be concerned about learning more for yourself first, before being concerned about your "denier" friends.

Here is a recent article about that from a legitimate science site (continue reading past the ads).

Link
Latest Euro is interesting..
Quoting 172. ricderr:

Meanwhile in California...


sorry about that pedley...thought some of this moisture from mexico might have made it your way.....we're at a whoping 0.78 inches for the year


Well, that wasn't me that posted that nice picture. Yes, you are .78 ahead of what we have. that monsoonal stuff is to the East and it ran up over the Sierra and got all over the central valley. Didn't hear any results on rain up there though.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Statement as of 5:43 PM EDT on July 09, 2014

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 407 remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for the following locations

CT . Connecticut counties included are

Fairfield Hartford Litchfield New Haven
Quoting 217. TropicalAnalystwx13:


D'oh. I forgot that non-meteorologists weren't allowed to give their opinion on a weather blog. Sorry about that, really. ;)


I should point out that I'm not saying we can't get an El Nino this year. I still think we can. However, chances are that the event will be weak and probably short-lived. I simply offered explanations on why people think it might not be materializing as once thought.


Sure they can, and the reason I posted my original post was to drop some knowledge from real meteorologists, to broaden some horizons. I completely agree with your statement, but it seems like saying it "might not be materializing as once thought" and saying "it's a bust, time to revise hurricane numbers" are two completely different things and I was wholly criticizing the latter.

You know I have great respect for you, you know a heck of a lot more about weather and I always appreciate your input. Sorry if I came off like I was going after you, It wasn't my intention.

I guess we can get back to our regularly scheduled programming, now. :)
Quoting 169. sar2401:


The way I read the quote is that Neoguri was early "likely" because of El Nino, and that the warm water was further out in the Pacific allowing the storms to get bigger. The warm pool I have no problem with. The part I do is that is it's "giving them more time to grow in strength by the time they make landfall around Japan". It grew in strength long before it reach Japan and got weaker the closer it got to Japan. The implication seemed to be that El Nino would play a part in stronger typhoons hitting Japan, and Neoguri's behavior was the opposite of that idea.
That sounds like prepositional ambiguity, which definitely could cause some differences in interpretation between Japanese and English. The question one would need answered for clarification is "what is the frequency of storms of Neoguri's size and strength impacting Japan at this time of year?" Wunderground used to have maps that could provide that answer for the ATL, but I don't know about the WPac data. In any case, if the speaker could correlate storm events of Neoguri's type with current or forming el nino conditions, then he would be correct. IOW, I'd like to see more data before I dismiss.

Nevertheless, the fact that Neoguri weakened as it approached Japan does not negate his statement. If in its weakened state Neoguri was stronger than average storms at this time in the season, his hypothesis would be quite logical.

It's an interesting concept which I'd be interested in seeing more data about.
I'm in a webinar for severe storm spotter training the people in this conference call are not the brightest......
Quoting 215. guygee:

The dominating overhead subtropical ridge has been postponed yet again in EC FL with the collision of the seabreezes on the east side of the peninsula. Also,

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
520 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

FLC009-097-092200-
/O.CON.KMLB.SV.W.0065.000000T0000Z-140709T2200Z/
OSCEOLA-BREVARD-
520 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL BREVARD AND EAST CENTRAL OSCEOLA COUNTIES...

AT 519 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF HOLOPAW
TO FOREVER FLORIDA...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHEAST
OF HOLOPAW TO 7 MILES SOUTH OF HOLOPAW...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO DEER
PARK...US192

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MILES AN
HOUR AND OR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL. FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IF THE STORM APPROACHES
YOU...SEEK SHELTER IN AN ENCLOSED BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. KEEP
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 2801 8109 2819 8105 2830 8083 2798 8075
TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 255DEG 4KT 2821 8100 2804 8106

$$


MOSES


Should we be worried that the forecaster for a large rainfall event is named Moses?
LOL

IMDb via IMDbTV

And now ladies and gentlemen, the moment you%u2019ve all been waiting for%u2026 the official trailer for " Sharknado 2: The Second One!" http://imdb.to/1qWtgqC
Just checked the temp near where I work,, check out these readings from Williston, Nd. According to Wunderground the high temp was 134F with a pressure of 27.80in and the wind zero. I threw in the zero measurement because if you have ever been here the wind seems to blow all the time.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #56
Storm Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM NEOGURI (T1408)
6:00 AM JST July 10 2014
=============================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon 40 KM West Of Minamata [Kumamoto Prefecture]

At 21:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Neoguri (980 hPa) located at 32.2N 130.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots.. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 13 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
325 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
210 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 35.9N 139.6E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) near Saitama City [Saitama Prefecture]
45 HRS: 43.5N 145.4E - Extratropical Cyclone northwest of Nemuro [Hokkaido]
Quoting 227. Dakster:



Should we be worried that the forecaster for a large rainfall event is named Moses?






Beats Noah anyday

I'll just note that the upwelling phase of the Kelvin wave is dominant over the Pacific at this time, and so far the anomalies are not as cool as the last upwelling phase, while the last downwelling phase was the warmest yet. I would wait for the next downwelling phase before dismissing the predicted moderate El Nino coming in the fall.
Quoting 227. Dakster:



Should we be worried that the forecaster for a large rainfall event is named Moses?
On the contrary, he was the greatest hydrofracturer of them all. :)
This one lady on the call won't stop asking questions....
There should be no doubt of this El Nino materializing. Though the super calls were indeed hype! The SOI was the only obstacle hindering this Nino caused by the Pacific Warm Pool anomaly. But recently SOI values have come down and I believe these new bursts in typhoon activity will push these PWP anomalies east while subsequently cooling the W Pacific. The Indian Ocean is neutral negative.

Does anyone know what the SAM index is and stands for? Because that has been somewhat negative which could contribute to a positive SOI.
Quoting georgevandenberghe:


The damage swathe has to be 250 miles long, not wide. This one met the criterion for length but was marginal for intensity and I don't think it lasted for six hours either. But my point and problem is the length and duration numbers are arbitrary and smaller bowed lines do the same type of damage over a smaller (but still much larger than individual cell ) area. There isn't any clear scale separation between bow echoes and derechos other than the length and duration numbers.

Modified 0417EDT. According to the CWG post the event lasted for 8-9 hours from Ohio to the Northeast..


Sorry, I meant long, not wide. At one time, part of the definition was wind damage along the entire length, not just scattered parts. According to the the gang at the SPC, "Derechos might be said to be made up of families of downburst clusters that extend, by definition, continuously or nearly continuously for at least 240 miles (about 400 km)". Link I don't believe there was near continuous damage from that line, and some of the damage was cause by tornadoes. All the definitions include words like "might", which means it's really not a definition at all.

The guy who invented the term in 1871, Dr. Gustavus Hinrichs, who was apparently a brilliant scientist but also slightly nuts. He got in constant fights with other faculty members at the University of Iowa and was finally terminated from his faculty position over a letter he wrote describing the local hospital a "slaughterhouse" (he was also a medical doctor), but an investigating committee found his claims without merit. He was also the head guy in charge of the Iowa State Weather Bureau and lost that job as well over a bunch of fights he had with the Signal Corps, which had become the official Weather Bureau. He never really defined derecho very well beyond a line of thunderstorms that produced damage similar to a tornado but weren't tornadoes. The term was never in widespread use and faded away completely after Hinrich's termination in what was viewed at that time as disgrace.

Fast forward a hundred years and a forecaster with the SPC named Robert H. Johns was studying microbursts and lines of microbursts. He and a couple of other meteorologists rediscovered Hinrich's work and decided "derecho" was a good name for these non-tornadic wind events. They presented a paper in 1987 about these events and used "derecho" for the first time since the term fell out of favor in the 1890's. Unfortunately, they also didn't come up with a rigorous definition either. The term caught on again but was used to describe almost any long lasting squall line with a bow echo. Link For whatever reason, the term became even more popular in the past 10 years, and it's now commonly used even if a storm system doesn't meet all the supposed criteria, which vary depending on the definition you find.
Quoting weatherbro:
There should be no doubt of this El Nino materializing. Though the super calls were indeed hype! The SOI was the only obstacle hindering this Nino caused by the Pacific Warm Pool anomaly. But recently SOI values have come down and I believe these new bursts in typhoon activity will push these PWP anomalies east while subsequently cooling the W Pacific. The Indian Ocean is neutral negative.

Does anyone know what the SAM index is and stands for? Because that has been somewhat negative which could contribute to a positive SOI.

Southern Annular Mode. More about it here. You guys who are interested in predicting El Nino might understand the significance. I sure don't.
I've always wanted to write this....98E is getting "that" look!

Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #56
Storm Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM NEOGURI (T1408)
6:00 AM JST July 10 2014
=============================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon 40 KM West Of Minamata [Kumamoto Prefecture]

At 21:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Neoguri (980 hPa) located at 32.2N 130.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots.. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 13 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
325 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
210 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 35.9N 139.6E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) near Saitama City [Saitama Prefecture]
45 HRS: 43.5N 145.4E - Extratropical Cyclone northwest of Nemuro [Hokkaido]

Do you have a copy of the scale they are using? I can't find anything from the JMA that defines categories by numbers and certainly not what would otherwise be TS as a cat 2 anything. I wish we could get together and come up with one global scale. This is confusing.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I've always wanted to write this....98E is getting "that" look!


Well, quit looking at it and it will stop. :-)
Quoting nymore:
Just checked the temp near where I work,, check out these readings from Williston, Nd. According to Wunderground the high temp was 134F with a pressure of 27.80in and the wind zero. I threw in the zero measurement because if you have ever been here the wind seems to blow all the time.

Yes, these remote stations break and no human seems to look at them and goes "Wait a minute...". Same thing with the ASOS at Kadena AFB in Okinawa. The anemometer and altimeter were both giving bad readings, the maintenance flag was up, and the readings are still being reported as true, even by Dr. Masters. Back in the days when someone had to trudge out to the instrument shelter and take readings, these kinds of things didn't happen as often.
From Dr. Masters Blog Above

"and over the Midwestern U.S., where a strong trough of low pressure will form."


Like the endless rain lately here in SEFL, hopefully that doesn't stick around long.
Quoting opal92nwf:
LOL

IMDb via IMDbTV

And now ladies and gentlemen, the moment you%u2019ve all been waiting for%u2026 the official trailer for " Sharknado 2: The Second One!" http://imdb.to/1qWtgqC

Oh my. The sharks are apparently protecting the server! :-)

You don't have permission to access "http://ia.media-imdb.com/images/M/MV5BMjA0MTIxMDE wNF5BMl5BanBnXkFtZTgwMDk3ODIxMjE@._V1_SY317_CR6,0, 214,317_AL_.jpg" on this server.
Quoting 232. guygee:


I'll just note that the upwelling phase of the Kelvin wave is dominant over the Pacific at this time, and so far the anomalies are not as cool as the last upwelling phase, while the last downwelling phase was the warmest yet. I would wait for the next downwelling phase before dismissing the predicted moderate El Nino coming in the fall.
This fall el nino prediction seems quite doable. When things "fell through" in May, I became skeptical of JAS onset, but so far there doesn't seem to be anything precluding onset in OND.... we still have a couple months to go before we dismiss the chances, IMO...

Quoting BahaHurican:
That sounds like prepositional ambiguity, which definitely could cause some differences in interpretation between Japanese and English. The question one would need answered for clarification is "what is the frequency of storms of Neoguri's size and strength impacting Japan at this time of year?" Wunderground used to have maps that could provide that answer for the ATL, but I don't know about the WPac data. In any case, if the speaker could correlate storm events of Neoguri's type with current or forming el nino conditions, then he would be correct. IOW, I'd like to see more data before I dismiss.

Nevertheless, the fact that Neoguri weakened as it approached Japan does not negate his statement. If in its weakened state Neoguri was stronger than average storms at this time in the season, his hypothesis would be quite logical.

It's an interesting concept which I'd be interested in seeing more data about.

Weaker than TS? :-) The guy who was quoted is a faculty member at the University of Hawaii so I assume his English is satisfactory. Some people are just prepositionally ambiguous...good term, BTW.
Quoting 240. sar2401:


Do you have a copy of the scale they are using? I can't find anything from the JMA that defines categories by numbers and certainly not what would otherwise be TS as a cat 2 anything. I wish we could get together and come up with one global scale. This is confusing.
Wikipedia used to have a fairly comprehensible document about TC scales at one point.... plus there are a couple conversion charts around showing the difference in 1, 2, 3, and 10 minute estimates. WMO website is prolly also a useful website to investigate for this.

Or this link from NOAA...
Quoting BahaHurican:
Evening all. Just drove home through some rain showers. I was expecting them to die away like yesterday, but we did actually get a few showers, especially across the central part of the island.



BTW, did anybody else see this notice on the NASA sat. img. viewers' website?

GOES East 1-km Infrared Weather Satellite Image

We will be affected by a building-wide power outage that is expected to last from Friday afternoon, July 11, 2014 through Monday morning, July 14, 2014. During this time, access to this web server and real-time GOES imagery will be unavailable. We apologize for the inconvenience.



Hmm. You have to wonder who decided they needed a power outage for the whole weekend. Maybe they are adding several more hamsters to the big wheel. Since El Nino has been cancelled, we really don't need to see what's on the NHC servers anyway. :-)
Quoting BahaHurican:
Wikipedia used to have a fairly comprehensible document about TC scales at one point.... plus there are a couple conversion charts around showing the difference in 1, 2, 3, and 10 minute estimates. WMO website is prolly also a useful website to investigate for this.

I've been to all those places plus the JMA official web site. I still can't find a numerical scale for typhoons. Not the measurement time for wind speed, what the JMA is now calling a 50 mph storm that's also a category 3.
Quoting 249. sar2401:


Hmm. You have to wonder who decided they needed a power outage for the whole weekend. Maybe they are adding several more hamsters to the big wheel. Since El Nino has been cancelled, we really don't need to see what's on the NHC servers anyway. :-)
I figure it's some kind of upgrade to the grid for the entire blg that means they have to take the power out long enough to make / change connections.... don't want to accidentally fry some innocent worker.... lol...

Hopefully the wx will stay reasonably calm here, since I depend a lot on the site for my localized imagery.
Alright! Wind is picking up, clouds look threatening...maybe I'll finally get some rain. Probably not the Florida flood variety but I'll take it.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
609 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

ALZ046>050-100015-
BARBOUR AL-BULLOCK AL-LEE AL-PIKE AL-RUSSELL AL-
609 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RUSSELL...SOUTHEASTERN PIKE...
SOUTHEASTERN LEE...BARBOUR AND SOUTHEASTERN BULLOCK COUNTIES UNTIL
715 PM CDT...

AT 607 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LADONIA TO RUSSELL COUNTY
SPORTS COMPLEX TO HURTSBORO TO BARBOUR COUNTY PUBLIC LAKE DAM TO
DOSTER...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
CLIO...
PHENIX CITY...
EUFAULA...
RUSSELL COUNTY SPORTS COMPLEX...
BARBOUR COUNTY PUBLIC LAKE DAM...

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.



Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Statement as of 7:00 PM EDT on July 09, 2014



The National Weather Service in Upton NY has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Fairfield County in southern Connecticut... northwestern New Haven County in southern Connecticut...

* until 800 PM EDT...

* at 659 PM EDT...National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a severe thunderstorm capable of producing quarter size hail...and damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. This storm was located near Bethel...or near Danbury...and moving northeast at 25 mph.

* Other locations in the warning include but are not limited to Newtown...Monroe...Southbury...Seymour...Beacon Falls... Naugatuck...Waterbury...Hamden and North Haven

In addition to large hail and damaging winds...continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately! Lightning is one of natures number one killers. Remember...if you can hear thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM Wednesday evening for southern Connecticut and northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.
Quoting 250. sar2401:


I've been to all those places plus the JMA official web site. I still can't find a numerical scale for typhoons. Not the measurement time for wind speed, what the JMA is now calling a 50 mph storm that's also a category 3.
Looking around the JMA website I don't see a scale of any kind. However, this page

http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jma-center/rsmc- hp-pub-eg/RSMC_HP.htm

Does have some interesting data that may be useful for study.... under climatology and best track.... I will be going back to look at these in greater detail...
Quoting 210. Patrap:




Is that a Low forming in S TX/N Mex border area?
If so, will it be shooting across the N GOM?
Interesting to watch - and in SE FL, too.
Quoting 256. GeoffreyWPB:


Quiet as a mouse oh..
Quoting 210. Patrap:




Look at all of that glorious dry air in the MDR. Sarcasm flag:ON
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED JUL 9 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure is centered about 600 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Although
the associated shower activity has not become any better organized
during the past few hours, the system still has some potential for
development during the next 24 hours before the environment
becomes unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila
Quoting 250. sar2401:


I've been to all those places plus the JMA official web site. I still can't find a numerical scale for typhoons. Not the measurement time for wind speed, what the JMA is now calling a 50 mph storm that's also a category 3.


4.2 Classification of tropical cyclones*, **


Classifications of tropical cyclones for the exchange of messages among the
Typhoon Committee Members are given below:

(i) Low pressure area (L) Central position cannot be accurately assessed

(ii) Tropical depression (TD) Central position can be identified,
but the maximum sustained wind is 33 kt or less.

(iii) Tropical storm (TS) Maximum sustained wind is between 34 and 47 kt.

(iv) Severe tropical (STS) Maximum sustained wind is between 48 and 63 kt.
storm

(v) Typhoon (TY) Maximum sustained wind is 64 kt or more.

From Appendix 1-B
64-84 Typhoon
85 Very Strong Typhoon
105 Violent Typhoon

All 10 min

TYPHOON COMMITTEE
OPERATIONAL MANUAL
If they use 10 minute averages, I'm not sure they would classify Arthur as a typhoon.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


4.2 Classification of tropical cyclones*, **


Classifications of tropical cyclones for the exchange of messages among the
Typhoon Committee Members are given below:

(i) Low pressure area (L) Central position cannot be accurately assessed

(ii) Tropical depression (TD) Central position can be identified,
but the maximum sustained wind is 33 kt or less.

(iii) Tropical storm (TS) Maximum sustained wind is between 34 and 47 kt.

(iv) Severe tropical (STS) Maximum sustained wind is between 48 and 63 kt.
storm

(v) Typhoon (TY) Maximum sustained wind is 64 kt or more.

From Appendix 1-B
64-84 Typhoon
85 Very Strong Typhoon
105 Violent Typhoon

All 10 min

TYPHOON COMMITTEE
OPERATIONAL MANUAL

Yes, I know all those things. This is the last JMA update:

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #56
Storm Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM NEOGURI (T1408)
6:00 AM JST July 10 2014
=============================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon 40 KM West Of Minamata [Kumamoto Prefecture]

At 21:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Neoguri (980 hPa) located at 32.2N 130.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots.. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 13 knots.


Where does it show a "Category 2" and where is a listing of the categories?

EDIT: Before you say it's those Roman numerals, they don't match up either, since a Cat 2 would a TD, not a TS.
Quoting 214. Stormwatch247:

Hurricane ARTHUR's eye was full of BIRDS!

Just read a news article that says that scientists believe that Hurricane Arthur's eye was full of birds when it was making landfall, just off of the Morehead City, NC area! It was captured on a newer type of radar that measures "Differential Reflectivity."

Most radars capture raindrops or snowflakes that are mostly round and small, but this new type of radar image showed much larger objects mixed with the rain (larger than heavy rain or big hail) in the eye of Arthur ... near the NC coast, just before landfall.

So now, we know that dry air and birds helped contribute to the lower than expected sustained winds as Arthur moved inland! LOL.

Actually, all kidding aside, that is really interesting, and like Arthur ..... Hurricane Hugo's (1989) eye also reportedly had a huge number of birds that were transported from the Caribbean Sea to western North Carolina.

Just an observation: Studying radar loops of Arthur's landfall near Cape Lookout, NC, it appears that some of the main heaviest convection in Arthur (maybe mixing the stronger winds down to the surface) moved from Cape Lookout to Cedar Island, to Ocracoke Island .... as the hurricane moved more easterly with time, and exited off the coast of NC. The strongest sustained hurricane-force winds were possibly located in a very limited area, just to the east and southeast of the eye.

It will be interesting what the NHC report has to say about Arthur, when it is completed!
When they mix with the arctic owls and northern seagulls, it will look like the gardens at the Flamingo in Las Vegas (which has Flamingos and Penguins in the same pool).
recently made landfall over Kagoshima Prefecture. JMA mentioned the city Akune as reference

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #56B
Storm Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM NEOGURI (T1408)
8:00 AM JST July 10 2014
=============================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon 30 KM West Northwest Of Miyazaki [Miyazaki Prefecture]

At 23:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Neoguri (984 hPa) located at 32.0N 131.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots.. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 15 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
325 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
210 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
Quoting 257. Climate175:

Quiet as a mouse oh..


Not so Fast!!


(iii) Tropical storm (TS) Maximum sustained wind is between 34 and 47 kt.

(iv) Severe tropical (STS) Maximum sustained wind is between 48 and 63 kt.
storm

(v) Typhoon (TY) Maximum sustained wind is 64 kt or more.

From Appendix 1-B
64-84 Typhoon
85 Very Strong Typhoon
105 Violent Typhoon


oh, that is just me breaking down named typhoons into five categories instead of only three status after it become a typhoon (65 knots).
Quoting 255. WalkingInTheSun:



Is that a Low forming in S TX/N Mex border area?
If so, will it be shooting across the N GOM?
Interesting to watch - and in SE FL, too.


No, that is an upper level low, NOT associated with a surface low.
Quoting 263. sar2401:


Yes, I know all those things. This is the last JMA update:

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #56
Storm Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM NEOGURI (T1408)
6:00 AM JST July 10 2014
=============================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon 40 KM West Of Minamata [Kumamoto Prefecture]

At 21:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Neoguri (980 hPa) located at 32.2N 130.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots.. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 13 knots.


Where does it show a "Category 2" and where is a listing of the categories?


I can't find those advisories on their website. Maybe Haydes can provide a link?

Edit: I see Haydes answered my question in #267
Quoting 266. PedleyCA:



Not so Fast!!


Fausto officially dead?



I can't find those advisories on their website. Maybe Haydes can provide a link?

Edit: I see Haydes answered my question in #267


that style of advisory is written by me using data information from JMA.
Quoting 270. TimSoCal:



Fausto officially dead?


They are showing it as "Remnants of Fausto."
We await the verdict tomorrow to see what exactly is going on...we might be in for a surprise. :)

AUSTIN (KXAN) — The end to our drought could be months away, as NOAA is scheduled to announce the status of this year’s potential El Niño on Thursday.

The development of this significant weather pattern could bring an end to the Central Texas drought, but the welcome rain often comes with dangerous side effects.

This orange area in the Pacific detailed in the video below shows warmer than normal water, a telltale sign we could soon see an El Niño.



The Climate Prediction Center , a division of NOAA, will let us know for sure on Thursday.

To understand what El Niño could bring this fall and winter, we take a look at what it has brought us in the past.

1997 was a devastating year in Central Texas weather that included killer tornadoes on May 27, including the Jarrell EF-5. That year, the strongest El Niño on record developed. The Pacific ocean warmed to record levels, bringing Texas wetter and cooler weather.

El Niño patterns typically bring one storm after another, bringing heavy rain that Texas is usually desperate for.

In June 1997, Lake Travis had one of its worst floods ever with water 75 feet higher than it is today, flooding lakefront neighborhoods. The pattern lasted into 1998, bringing more flash floods and rare January tornadoes.

FAQ: Climate Prediction Center’s El Nino FAQ

During the 2004 El Niño, more tornadoes touched down on two different days around Thanksgiving.

“All she could see was solid white, it was solid white,” said Michelle Hogan, who lives near the area hit. “She couldn’t see any neighborhood, any house or anything. It was just solid white.”

Flooding returned to the area as well, forcing some schools to cancel classes that week. It was the wettest year in more than a decade.

Our last El Niño in 2009 was, once again, “old reliable.” In October, it rained so hard Lake Travis went up one foot per hour, leveling out 12 feet higher after the storm.

“We’ve been waiting for this continued rain for so long,” LCRA Meteorologist Bob Rose said. “We’ve been seeing rain every four or five days in the area.”

That winter, Austin saw not one, but two rare snowfalls.

“Very gentle,” Austin resident Johnny Smith said. “I wasn’t expecting it to look like this actually. It puts a nice little effect to Austin you don’t usually see.”

It has been five years since our last El Niño.

While we won’t start seeing the effects quite yet, the KXAN First Warning Weather team will be able to tell you whether the El Niño will happen with NOAA ‘s announcement Thursday morning.

Stay tuned to KXAN and KXAN.com for updates on El Niño’s development.

Link
I can't believe this. Look at this radar. I'm in Eufaula. Decent looking line of storms approaching from the west. Just as they start to get here, it starts moving NE! They are continuing to move NE and are now starting to weaken. At this rate, I'm liable to get nothing from these storms. First ones in 12 days and it does this to me. Geez...



GFS forecast Typhoon Rammasun... 920 hPa in this model.
Quoting 272. PedleyCA:



They are showing it as "Remnants of Fausto."


How is your weather, Ped?
277. silas
Man there really isn't much going on today. I can see why the blog is pretty quiet. I'm going to play some tennis maybe some of you should do the same =)

Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


that style of advisory is written by me using data information from JMA.

Ah, OK, that makes sense now. You might want to note in your update that the category information is not official. It's been driving me nuts trying to find something that doesn't exist.
Naga, did you drop those same meterologists a line in 2012?

Its funny but the same conversation was going on in 2012 and the el nino was being questioned..I guess professionals cant get it wrong..

also worth noting but in 2005 where we got a Modoki El Nino, NOAA was predicting a weak El Nino forming in August thereby the atlantic season should see below average storms after August..So I guess NOAA was right as shine during that time as well..



from NHC 2005 outlook

Expected Climate Conditions – Active multi-decadal signal, above-average Atlantic Ocean temperatures, ENSO-neutral conditions

Another factor known to significantly impact Atlantic hurricane seasons is ENSO (Gray 1984, Monthly Weather Review), with El Niño favoring fewer hurricanes and La Niña favoring more hurricanes. Based on the most recent ENSO outlook issued by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, ENSO-neutral conditions are expected in the tropical Pacific through at least the first half of the hurricane season. Therefore, the ENSO phenomenon is not expected to impact this hurricane season.

I'll just keep waiting, watching and be prepared as always..

disclaimor-I'm not knocking the professionals but to have people here kinda of implying that just because the professionals say its going to happen then it must is not always the case especially when predicting weather..
Since record keeping began we have never gone more than 4 years without an El Nino. If we do we really have to question is Climate Change having an impact.

Link
What an idiot Governor Cuomo is, open mouth, insert foot !! SMH !!

Link
Quoting 274. sar2401:

I can't believe this. Look at this radar. I'm in Eufaula. Decent looking line of storms approaching from the west. Just as they start to get here, it starts moving NE! They are continuing to move NE and are now starting to weaken. At this rate, I'm liable to get nothing from these storms. First ones in 12 days and it does this to me. Geez...




That happened to me a lot this summer, today we finally had a strong thunderstorm. However, weird change in direction and sudden dissipation has occurred most of the summer for anything that gets near me. NOAA radar estimates over the past 5-6 weeks show that the central part of my county has has literally the lowest rain across all of Central Florida, and by a long shot. We've had only about 1/4 the precip over the past 6 weeks than the entire viewing area.

I've never seen this here before. Usually Pinellas County is a hot spot for heavy rain and strong thunderstorms. Hopefully today's total of over 2 inches will be the start of a new trend.
Quoting PedleyCA:


They are showing it as "Remnants of Fausto."



Hmmm...Remnants of Fausto.....sounds like a great band name!

Quoting 282. Jedkins01:



That happened to me a lot this summer, today we finally had a strong thunderstorm. However, weird change in direction and sudden dissipation has occurred most of the summer for anything that gets near me. NOAA radar estimates over the past 5-6 weeks show that the central part of my county has has literally the lowest rain across all of Central Florida, and by a long shot. We've had only about 1/4 the precip over the past 6 weeks than the entire viewing area.

I've never seen this here before. Usually Pinellas County is a hot spot for heavy rain and strong thunderstorms. Hopefully today's total of over 2 inches will be the start of a new trend.
Bad omen, maybe a sign of things to come, perhaps in the form of a hurricane.
Quoting 273. GTstormChaserCaleb:

We await the verdict tomorrow to see what exactly is going on...we might be in for a surprise. :)

AUSTIN (KXAN) — The end to our drought could be months away, as NOAA is scheduled to announce the status of this year’s potential El Niño on Thursday.

The development of this significant weather pattern could bring an end to the Central Texas drought, but the welcome rain often comes with dangerous side effects.

This orange area in the Pacific detailed in the video below shows warmer than normal water, a telltale sign we could soon see an El Niño.



The Climate Prediction Center , a division of NOAA, will let us know for sure on Thursday.

To understand what El Niño could bring this fall and winter, we take a look at what it has brought us in the past.

1997 was a devastating year in Central Texas weather that included killer tornadoes on May 27, including the Jarrell EF-5. That year, the strongest El Niño on record developed. The Pacific ocean warmed to record levels, bringing Texas wetter and cooler weather.

El Niño patterns typically bring one storm after another, bringing heavy rain that Texas is usually desperate for.

In June 1997, Lake Travis had one of its worst floods ever with water 75 feet higher than it is today, flooding lakefront neighborhoods. The pattern lasted into 1998, bringing more flash floods and rare January tornadoes.

FAQ: Climate Prediction Center’s El Nino FAQ

During the 2004 El Niño, more tornadoes touched down on two different days around Thanksgiving.

“All she could see was solid white, it was solid white,” said Michelle Hogan, who lives near the area hit. “She couldn’t see any neighborhood, any house or anything. It was just solid white.”

Flooding returned to the area as well, forcing some schools to cancel classes that week. It was the wettest year in more than a decade.

Our last El Niño in 2009 was, once again, “old reliable.” In October, it rained so hard Lake Travis went up one foot per hour, leveling out 12 feet higher after the storm.

“We’ve been waiting for this continued rain for so long,” LCRA Meteorologist Bob Rose said. “We’ve been seeing rain every four or five days in the area.”

That winter, Austin saw not one, but two rare snowfalls.

“Very gentle,” Austin resident Johnny Smith said. “I wasn’t expecting it to look like this actually. It puts a nice little effect to Austin you don’t usually see.”

It has been five years since our last El Niño.

While we won’t start seeing the effects quite yet, the KXAN First Warning Weather team will be able to tell you whether the El Niño will happen with NOAA ‘s announcement Thursday morning.

Stay tuned to KXAN and KXAN.com for updates on El Niño’s development.

Link


The TAO bouy array has degraded significantly. There are very few operational now in the Nino 3.4 area.

00z Best Track for 92W.

92W INVEST 140710 0000 9.1N 151.8E WPAC 20 1007
Quoting 276. Dakster:



How is your weather, Ped?

HOT, 9 days in a row over 90F, and been humid a bit too.
Quoting 281. Chucktown:

What an idiot Governor Cuomo is, open mouth, insert foot !! SMH !!

Link
Is he serious ? .... WOW
NC, you're thinking 2004, that was the one with the Modoki. 2005 was a neutral ENSO.
Oh, cripes. If you look at #274 (which I guess soon won't make much sense, since the image apparently autoupdates), you can see a healthy looking line of storms coming in from the west. The storms begin to weaken and move NE This is still happening. As you can see, Eufaula is right on the shore of a Lake called, strangely enough, Lake Eufaula. It's a big lake. A surface area of almost 300 square miles and shoreline of over 600 miles. I've seen this pattern before when storms approach from the west. Look god, start to turn NE, weaken, and I don't get squat. If the storms approach from the south, this doesn't seem to happen, even though they traverse the entire lake. Do you think the lake "deflects" storms from the west while storms from the south maintain intensity, getting additional energy from the relatively warm lake? My fiance is starting to think I'm a really lousy forecaster now. :-)
Quoting 287. PedleyCA:


HOT, 9 days in a row over 90F, and been humid a bit too.


Like Miami lately... Can't wait to leave Miami again...
Quoting 263. sar2401:


Yes, I know all those things. This is the last JMA update:

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #56
Storm Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM NEOGURI (T1408)
6:00 AM JST July 10 2014
=============================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon 40 KM West Of Minamata [Kumamoto Prefecture]

At 21:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Neoguri (980 hPa) located at 32.2N 130.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots.. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 13 knots.


Where does it show a "Category 2" and where is a listing of the categories?

EDIT: Before you say it's those Roman numerals, they don't match up either, since a Cat 2 would a TD, not a TS.
Context clues tell all. A STS = a category 2 typhoon.... if so, one should be able to access the archive and see these different categories in effect, matched by the "name" of the storm...
Just for entertainment purposes and pattern recognition as I've been told on this blog..

CFS latest run-run the loop

and the spread
Quoting 288. Climate175:

Is he serious ? .... WOW


Apparently you don't need brains to run for Governor.... But, hey, at least he gets the important stuff, right. Well.... Maybe not...
Quoting 294. Dakster:



Apparently you don't need brains to run for Governor.... But, hey, at least he gets the important stuff, right. Well.... Maybe not...
Preach hit Dakster!
Quoting Chucktown:
What an idiot Governor Cuomo is, open mouth, insert foot !! SMH !!

Link




From his own lips:

“We don’t get tornadoes in New York. Anyone will tell you that,” Cuomo said. “Well, we do now, and this new normal of extreme weather is a challenge for government, it’s a challenge for first responders and it’s a challenge for every citizen in this state.”
Link

I'm actually glad to see a governor who acknowledges climate change is happening. It's too bad he's an idiot who apparently doesn't know much about the climate of his own state. There are ignorant governors in both camps I guess.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Context clues tell all. A STS = a category 2 typhoon.... if so, one should be able to access the archive and see these different categories in effect, matched by the "name" of the storm...

Good guess but incorrect. See #267. In this case, context was being used by one blogger to "improve" the JMA system.
299. txjac
Quoting 274. sar2401:

I can't believe this. Look at this radar. I'm in Eufaula. Decent looking line of storms approaching from the west. Just as they start to get here, it starts moving NE! They are continuing to move NE and are now starting to weaken. At this rate, I'm liable to get nothing from these storms. First ones in 12 days and it does this to me. Geez...




I have felt your pain previously ...quite frustrating when you watch it all unfold on radar
Quoting 293. ncstorm:

Just for entertainment purposes and pattern recognition as I've been told on this blog..

CFS latest run-run the loop

and the spread
Thanks 4 sharing .... looks like AB high expected to dominate 'til the end of the month ....
Quoting 292. BahaHurican:

Context clues tell all. A STS = a category 2 typhoon.... if so, one should be able to access the archive and see these different categories in effect, matched by the "name" of the storm...


http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone_s cales#Alternative_scales
Quoting 297. ncstorm:



thanks Teddy..you're right :) but still they were predicting a below average season in 2005 after August and that didnt happen either..

2004 Atlantic Hurricane season from CPC

The predicted 2004 activity is based primarily on the ongoing active phase of the Atlantic multi-decadal signal, but also reflects expected warmer sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea than can be accounted for by the multi-decadal signal alone. The outlook also reflects the likelihood that ENSO-neutral conditions (no El Niño or La Niña) will continue through August-October, the peak months of the hurricane season. An updated hurricane outlook will be issued in early August.
They predicted an above average hurricane season in 2006 as well. It just proves that making a prediction is never an exact thing, you can anticipate what may happen, but that doesn't necessarily mean it will happen. That's what makes this field great, you can still get to keep your job and get paid for being wrong. They still use sound science in their predictions. But like me or you or anyone on this blog and in general we could throw out a prediction and nail it in the end. The NHC may be the first to admit that this is their greatest flaw-making pre-season predictions, but they sure do a hell of a job at alerting the public of oncoming bad weather and sending out advisories, warning the public, and help coordinate with other agencies to get people to safety away from the storm. They are the best in the business at what they do and still I would take their predictions anyday over some joe-shmo from the end of the street.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #57
Storm Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM NEOGURI (T1408)
9:00 AM JST July 10 2014
=============================

Near Miyazaki [Miyazaki Prefecture]

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Neoguri (985 hPa) located at 32.1N 131.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots.. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 16 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
325 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
210 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 36.8N 141.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) southeast of Iwaki [Fukushima Prefecture]
48 HRS: 44.6N 146.8E - Extratropical Cyclone east of Hokkaido
Quoting 298. sar2401:


Good guess but incorrect. See #267. In this case, context was being used by one blogger to "improve" the JMA system.
Yeah... saw that later..... lol
Quoting 279. ncstorm:

Naga, did you drop those same meterologists a line in 2012?

Its funny but the same conversation was going on in 2012 and the el nino was being questioned..I guess professionals cant get it wrong..

also worth noting but in 2005 where we got a Modoki El Nino, NOAA was predicting a weak El Nino forming in August thereby the atlantic season should see below average storms after August..So I guess NOAA was right as shine during that time as well..



from NHC 2005 outlook

Expected Climate Conditions %u2013 Active multi-decadal signal, above-average Atlantic Ocean temperatures, ENSO-neutral conditions

Another factor known to significantly impact Atlantic hurricane seasons is ENSO (Gray 1984, Monthly Weather Review), with El Nio favoring fewer hurricanes and La Nia favoring more hurricanes. Based on the most recent ENSO outlook issued by NOAA%u2019s Climate Prediction Center, ENSO-neutral conditions are expected in the tropical Pacific through at least the first half of the hurricane season. Therefore, the ENSO phenomenon is not expected to impact this hurricane season.

I'll just keep waiting, watching and be prepared as always..

disclaimor-I'm not knocking the professionals but to have people here kinda of implying that just because the professionals say its going to happen then it must is not always the case especially when predicting weather..


I never said their predictions always come to fruition. All I was saying is that it is way too early to declare El Nino a bust and start in on changing hurricane predictions when current conditions favor an el nino (70% chance) this year. Of course the professionals can get it wrong and they do often.
12z GFS from the FIM website. :D

Quoting 300. BahaHurican:

Thanks 4 sharing .... looks like AB high expected to dominate 'til the end of the month ....
Also looks like it's going to stay rather "south" due to a remarkable series of mid-latitude systems.... don't remember seeing anything quite like that in July....
Quoting 307. BahaHurican:

Also looks like it's going to stay rather "south" due to a remarkable series of mid-latitude systems.... don't remember seeing anything quite like that in July....
Baha I'll be honest I have no idea what's in store for the rest of the season. I feel like I can speculate it to death and watch the complete opposite occur.
Quoting 296. sar2401:





From his own lips:

“We don’t get tornadoes in New York. Anyone will tell you that,” Cuomo said. “Well, we do now, and this new normal of extreme weather is a challenge for government, it’s a challenge for first responders and it’s a challenge for every citizen in this state.”
Link

I'm actually glad to see a governor who acknowledges climate change is happening. It's too bad he's an idiot who apparently doesn't know much about the climate of his own state. There are ignorant governors in both camps I guess.


Is that so? Huh. Then NY's Tornado History Project page must be full of utter manure, right?

New York's tornado history
Link

Tornado History Project -- New York
Link

It obviously happens. Cuomo is a moron to insinuate otherwise.
You still on here Dakster?
Quoting 308. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Baha I'll be honest I have no idea what's in store for the rest of the season. I feel like I can speculate it to death and watch the complete opposite occur.


You can't do worse than some of the professional forecasters out there.
Quoting 353. sar2401:


GN, Astro. The really scary part is that people like this might be behind you in line at Walmart. :-)


That's one reason I try to avoid Walmart. That, and they're not convenient (to me), and don't sell much that I want/need.

Quoting 305. Naga5000:



I never said their predictions always come to fruition. All I was saying is that it is way too early to declare El Nino a bust and start in on changing hurricane predictions when current conditions favor an el nino (70% chance) this year. Of course the professionals can get it wrong and they do often.
I'm personally in doubt because the atmospheric signal still doesn't appear suggestive of El Nino. Have you seen the 500 mb height patterns over North America during May and June? Ridging over the east coast is not what we would anticipate during El Nino events, which usually triggers a semipermanent trough aloft over that region.

Also, ENSO events tend to transition during the late spring or early summer. Time is quickly running out.
Quoting 308. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Baha I'll be honest I have no idea what's in store for the rest of the season. I feel like I can speculate it to death and watch the complete opposite occur.
Me too.... though I don't find much to quibble with about the mid and long-range GFS / CFS forecasts... aside from the multiple mid-latitude deep low systems one would not typically associate with the final decade of July, it looks pretty much par for the course. Activity seems slated to pick up right on time - around August 10 or so.... to me it doesn't seem much better than climatology.... but that's the fun of it.... lol ...
Quoting 312. Astrometeor:
That's one reason I try to avoid Walmart. That, and they're not convenient (to me), and don't sell much that I want/need.
How can you not love Walmart!!!!

LOL

EDIT: I bought a thermometer and a rain gauge in there once.... No, wait... the rain gauge I actually got at a Dollar Store.... ;o)
Cool down coming for the northern parts of the US. meanwhile the Sahel region of Africa will be burning up and parts of the Middle East.

You wanna try that chat again?
The day here in Porto Alegre dawned this way...Yeah, Germany are until in our sky...Black, Red and Yellow....Haha 2014 is really of the Germany.

JTWC upgrades 92W to Medium chance to develop.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.3N
154.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.1N 151.8E, APPROXIMATELY 103 NM NORTH
OF CHUUK, FSM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
COMPACT SYSTEM THAT HAS BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE AS FORMATIVE BANDS
ARE WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DUAL
OUTFLOW - ONE ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND A
WESTWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH. NUMERIC WEATHER
PREDICTION MODELS DEVELOP THIS AREA IN VARYING DEGREES WITH THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE BEING GFS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
Twins in the WPAC coming up.

Quoting 314. KoritheMan:


I'm personally in doubt because the atmospheric signal still doesn't appear suggestive of El Nino. Have you seen the 500 mb height patterns over North America during May and June? Ridging over the east coast is not what we would anticipate during El Nino events, which usually triggers a semipermanent trough aloft over that region.

Also, ENSO events tend to transition during the late spring or early summer. Time is quickly running out.



That may be completely true, but there is also the fact we have completely messed up the normal processes of atmospheric heat transfer. I'm personally not sure if previous norms mean much now and that they may mean even less moving forward. It's up in the air, but I'm no expert. :)

Quoting 322. Naga5000:



That may be completely true, but there is also the fact we have completely messed up the normal processes of atmospheric heat transfer. I'm personally not sure if previous norms mean much now and that they may mean even less moving forward. It's up in the air, but I'm no expert. :)
Meh. Until I have reason to assume that El Nino will be made different or modulated by the human footprint, I'm not going to base my predictions off that possibility. :P
More about birds and Arthur. Apparently a lot more exotics reached Nova Scotia than I realized. I previously posted about the flock of Franklin's gulls I've seen here in Yarmouth (some of which were still around this afternoon), but birders elsewhere have reported black skimmers, laughing gulls, royal terns, and so on, mostly in my region. Link
Quoting 322. Naga5000:



That may be completely true, but there is also the fact we have completely messed up the normal processes of atmospheric heat transfer. I'm personally not sure if previous norms mean much now and that they may mean even less moving forward. It's up in the air, but I'm no expert. :)
I'm inclined to start believing this Arctic Ice Melt is having an impact, not just on steering patterns of storms, but ocean temperatures as well. High Pressure up in the Arctic, High Pressure in the Atlantic and trough right in between. Just need to go back to 2010-2012 to see what the pattern has been. So this atmospheric heat transfer are we talking about water temperatures on up towards the atmosphere and how that cycle works and the transport of heat? It's a very interesting topic when discussing it along with El Nino.
Quoting 321. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Twins in the WPAC coming up.




The CMC has triplets (click to enlarge):



:)
Quoting 318. PedleyCA:

You wanna try that chat again?



Sure... Sorry, just saw this though.

Quoting 325. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I'm inclined to start believing this Arctic Ice Melt is having an impact, not just on steering patterns of storms, but ocean temperatures as well. High Pressure up in the Arctic, High Pressure in the Atlantic and trough right in between. Just need to go back to 2010-2012 to see what the pattern has been. So this atmospheric heat transfer are we talking about water temperatures on up towards the atmosphere and how that cycle works and the transport of heat? It's a very interesting topic when discussing it along with El Nino.
People are just hurricane-starved. :)
Quoting 326. Envoirment:



The CMC has triplets (click to enlarge):



:)
That's it I'm packing up my bags and heading to the WPAC.
Quoting 323. KoritheMan:


Meh. Until I have reason to assume that El Nino will be made different or modulated by the human footprint, I'm not going to base my predictions off that possibility. :P

Quoting 325. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I'm inclined to start believing this Arctic Ice Melt is having an impact, not just on steering patterns of storms, but ocean temperatures as well. High Pressure up in the Arctic, High Pressure in the Atlantic and trough right in between. Just need to go back to 2010-2012 to see what the pattern has been. So this atmospheric heat transfer are we talking about water temperatures on up towards the atmosphere and how that cycle works and the transport of heat? It's a very interesting topic when discussing it along with El Nino.


It's comments like this from Dr. Rood that give me pause:

"I wrote a long, some would say tedious, series of blogs on the Arctic Oscillation, changes in sea ice and atmospheric blocking (all of those terms defined in that series). Whether or not the changes in the Arctic are having large impacts on weather in middle latitudes or the tropics remains an open question subject to scientific investigation. From the point of view of predicting El Niño, during this prediction cycle we have levels of sea ice that are far lower than in previous El Niño cycles. This changes the heat exchange between the atmosphere and ocean in the Arctic. This is outside of the range of previous variability, which intrinsically increases the uncertainty in the forecast. The same could be said for springtime snow cover. In short, our background environment, on which we have developed what forecast skill we have, is changing. Also in my mind is a project that I participated in back in 2011 and 2012, where we were concerned about La Niña and flooding in the Upper Missouri River Basin. In that project, any sensitivity to La Niña was overwhelmed by the Arctic Oscillation being in its negative phase."

We don't know enough to say definitively that it is having an effect, but from what I understand of climate I can't see how it wouldn't have some effect on things.

I'm certainly more curious than anything.
Quoting 323. KoritheMan:


Meh. Until I have reason to assume that El Nino will be made different or modulated by the human footprint, I'm not going to base my predictions off that possibility. :P

ENSO to me is another major climate pattern that IMO we could use a lot more data about. I have a feeling there's more than one "sub-type" of El Nino out there, and we've seen basically two types so far... while larger climate oscillations may have some impact on frequency, I'll bet ENSO patterns in and of themselves are not as static as we think. In the same way tropical cyclones may follow general track patterns we recognise while intensifying and de-intensifying in ways we still don't fully understand, our understanding of ENSO development and intensification still has a lot of room for improvement.

This is why all the cries of "boom!" and "bust!" and vilification of whichever group currently seems to be wrong are just a waste of time in my view. Observe and learn. Predict; hypothesize; learn....

Quoting 330. Naga5000:



It's comments like this from Dr. Rood that give me pause:

"I wrote a long, some would say tedious, series of blogs on the Arctic Oscillation, changes in sea ice and atmospheric blocking (all of those terms defined in that series). Whether or not the changes in the Arctic are having large impacts on weather in middle latitudes or the tropics remains an open question subject to scientific investigation. From the point of view of predicting El Niño, during this prediction cycle we have levels of sea ice that are far lower than in previous El Niño cycles. This changes the heat exchange between the atmosphere and ocean in the Arctic. This is outside of the range of previous variability, which intrinsically increases the uncertainty in the forecast. The same could be said for springtime snow cover. In short, our background environment, on which we have developed what forecast skill we have, is changing. Also in my mind is a project that I participated in back in 2011 and 2012, where we were concerned about La Niña and flooding in the Upper Missouri River Basin. In that project, any sensitivity to La Niña was overwhelmed by the Arctic Oscillation being in its negative phase."

We don't know enough to say definitively that it is having an effect, but from what I understand of climate I can't see how it wouldn't have some effect on things.

I'm certainly more curious than anything.
Any amount of extra heat added to the atmosphere will undoubtedly effect some things. It'll be interesting to see how or what, though. Everything will likely be affected differently, and some may see only minimal change (the tropics in particular I'd assume would stay largely the same in an AGW-based world).
Quoting 324. bluenosedave:

More about birds and Arthur. Apparently a lot more exotics reached Nova Scotia than I realized. I previously posted about the flock of Franklin's gulls I've seen here in Yarmouth (some of which were still around this afternoon), but birders elsewhere have reported black skimmers, laughing gulls, royal terns, and so on, mostly in my region. Link


That is really amazing, and a GREAT LINK!! It is incredible that birds get stuck in the eye and can still fly such great distances!

Have seen old pictures of huge ships that have been stuck in the eye of past hurricanes, and the whole ship is covered in birds.
Quoting 328. KoritheMan:


People are just hurricane-starved. :)

That, too... lol...

But realistically, we've been lucky to have Arthur so early.... There have been quite a number of years when first storm didn't form until after Aug 1. I think we better be grateful we get better info from the WPac nowadays; at least we can follow the twins [or triplets lol] for ourselves and not get too bored before next month...

Quoting 328. KoritheMan:


People are just hurricane-starved. :)

It's not really that hard to see, my professor agrees with the trough patterns in the summer which he alluded to as part of the reason why the 2013 season under performed. Question is what's causing the troughiness + or - AMO, PDO? or something even greater Global Warming? If this trend continues for a couple more years, there is none reason whatsoever to believe that Global Warming is having an impact. Also, the SAL outbreaks have been stronger than normal for July the past 2 seasons all of this and yet the Sahel region has seen above average precipitation and then there is drought in Brazil. And don't get me started on the Texas Death Ridge and the droughts in California. It's not really that hard to see that the climate is becoming the bigger issue here. This is not normal, Kori and it's worrisome when you factor in sea level rise and where the majority of the worlds population resides right along the coastline.
Quoting 335. GTstormChaserCaleb:

It's not really that hard to see, my professor agrees with the trough patterns in the summer which he alluded to as part of the reason why the 2013 season under performed. Question is what's causing the troughiness or - AMO, PDO? or something even greater Global Warming? If this trend continues for a couple more years, there is none reason whatsoever to believe that Global Warming is having an impact. Also, the SAL outbreaks have been stronger than normal for July the past 2 seasons all of this and yet the Sahel region has seen above average precipitation and then there is drought in Brazil. And don't get me started on the Texas Death Ridge and the droughts in California. It's not really that hard to see that the climate is becoming the bigger issue here. This is not normal, Kori and it's worrisome when you factor in sea level rise and where the majority of the worlds population resides right along the coastline.
It's important to understand the east coast trough is normal. It's a baroclinically-favored semipermanent feature. In some years the trough is stronger than others.

Climate change will affect things. There's no doubt there. Our understanding of its impacts is still pretty rudimentary, though. Not to mention weather as a whole isn't nearly as simplistic as we make it out to be.

El Nino was thought to induce east coast troughs and recurvature... until 2002 and 2004. La Nina was thought to enhance hurricane landfalls along the US mainland... until 1995 and 2010.
Quoting 302. GTstormChaserCaleb:

They predicted an above average hurricane season in 2006 as well. It just proves that making a prediction is never an exact thing, you can anticipate what may happen, but that doesn't necessarily mean it will happen. That's what makes this field great, you can still get to keep your job and get paid for being wrong. They still use sound science in their predictions. But like me or you or anyone on this blog and in general we could throw out a prediction and nail it in the end. The NHC may be the first to admit that this is their greatest flaw-making pre-season predictions, but they sure do a hell of a job at alerting the public of oncoming bad weather and sending out advisories, warning the public, and help coordinate with other agencies to get people to safety away from the storm. They are the best in the business at what they do and still I would take their predictions anyday over some joe-shmo from the end of the street.

Useless (November 30, 2007)
Stu Ostro, Senior Meteorologist

Warning: I'm feeling ornery. And cynical and jaded. As the late, great blues musician Albert King once put it, "I'm getting old, and I get tired easily, and my bunion is hoitin'." Well, actually, although I did have a bunion, it has subsided, but there's something which I am getting real tired of and is causing my head to be hoitin'.
Other than being predisposed to headaches ever since my first winter as a professional meteorologist 27 (yikes!) years ago, why the throbbing pain?
Seasonal hurricane outlooks.
Those who have been readers of The Weather Channel blog since its inception know that this is not the first time I've written passionately about this topic; in fact I've posted on it starting in March 2006 and again during the '06 season and again at the end of it, and TWC hurricane expert Dr. Steve Lyons has written about it as well. In that entry posted a year ago today I also used a musical reference, concluding that "hopefully the public and the media -- to quote the title of one of The Who's most well-known songs -- won't get fooled again."
Well, along came spring 2007 and it was the same thing all over again, but even though I know I'm preaching into a mighty strong headwind, I figure it's worth at least one more try ... and there are some signs that the tide may be turning. As you'll see if you read on, the issues with seasonal outlooks are striking a chord these days, and, by the way, I had no idea Mike Bettes was going to post his own entry on the subject yesterday; I had already drafted this article, so I'm not just copying him nor did I have an intent to "pile on" to what he said!
Like him, though, with the 2007 hurricane season "officially" ending I've been thinking back on what the forecasts were for it prior to the start of the season, and what they were for the '06 season, and what happened back in 2005, and how there are more organizations and individuals getting involved in that game than there used to be.
And my head hurts when I think about how in general the media reacts with a frenzy when a seasonal outlook is publicly issued or updated, scrambling to go to press or air or online with the breaking news, like birds of prey on a fresh piece of meat, as if there had just been a major international incident. Continue reading @Link
Grrr. I keep getting challenged by deniers and having a hard time making an argument for our cause.
Check this one: Link
Quoting 333. Stormwatch247:



That is really amazing, and a GREAT LINK!! It is incredible that birds get stuck in the eye and can still fly such great distances! They must have eaten their Wheaties before Arthur swooped them up your way. :)

The story is good, although I would have preferred to see the list of other species closer to the lede. I noticed that the skimmer was showing the same exhausted behavior as the gulls I saw. It makes me wonder how many didn't make it. Only the strong would survive a trip like that.
Quoting 337. Climate175:

.
I notice that little Twave seems to be hanging on.... barely....

.


As Chong stated, this is a boring indian movie.
Area forecast discussion...corrected
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
922 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2014

Corrected near term discussion.

Near term [through tonight]...
broad cyclonic flow aloft continues across the region at the base on
an eastern U.S. Long wave trough. At the surface, a trough is
analyzed just north of the forecast area across central al/GA. This
feature and a kink in the upper level flow may maintain isolated
convection across our far northern zones for a couple of more hours.
Later tonight, a few of the cams show isolated convection moving
into the western portions of the forecast area and we have tweaked
pops accordingly.

Today marked the first day in nearly a week that we saw scattered to
numerous showers and storms develop across the region. Several
reports of severe weather were received.


Long term [saturday through wednesday]...
the weekend will begin with an upper ridge across much of the
Continental U.S. And a weak, shallow trough in the northeast. By early in the
week the pattern will have transitioned to another large scale
trough in the east with a retrograding ridge along the West Coast.
By midweek the eastern trough becomes positively tilted stretching
from New England to the central rockies. This suggests that our
rain chances will be above normal after the weekend due to the
long wave trough and a return of deeper moisture. For the weekend,
however, when typical Summer convection is expected, we could see
a couple of hot days again with highs in the upper 90s.
Quoting 341. BahaHurican:

I notice that little Twave seems to be hanging on.... barely....
July 9th is a little too early, 2013 made the mind set strong for July Cape verde development. Here is the basic information: The Cape Verde season, which is when tropical cyclones form in the Eastern Atlantic,begins around the 15th of August. At that time, upper-level winds and sea surface temperatures usually are right for storm development. Since these storms move across a large part of the Atlantic, they can become monster storms as they move westward. However, sometimes they turn harmlessly out to sea if there is a weakness in the vast high pressure system that extends to the storm is north. Other times, they move towards the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, or the East Coast of the U.S.
Quoting 338. opal92nwf:


Useless (November 30, 2007)
Stu Ostro, Senior Meteorologist

Warning: I'm feeling ornery. And cynical and jaded. As the late, great blues musician Albert King once put it, "I'm getting old, and I get tired easily, and my bunion is hoitin'." Well, actually, although I did have a bunion, it has subsided, but there's something which I am getting real tired of and is causing my head to be hoitin'.
Continue reading @Link
Yah.... I remember back when I used to read Stu's blog all the time. He said a lot of sensible things....

Quoting txjac:


I have felt your pain previously ...quite frustrating when you watch it all unfold on radar

Rats! The "storm" has moved through now. Two claps of thunder and a whopping 0.01" of rain. Just enough to get the rose leaves wet so they get even worse mildew. I do think the lake has some effect on storms, since regular diurnal storms always turn away if they come form the west, South or east, they get bigger. We actually had lake effect snow this winter. We got 3 inches while the surrounding area average an inch.

I do have to wonder about El Nino as well. This spring, the weather was about what I'd expect from El Nino - wet and cooler than normal. Since the first of June it has been really hot with almost no rain. Not what I'd expect from El Nino.
I used to religiously follow the weather blogs on weather.com. They used to be extremely popular but waned after 2006.

Can find a lot of good information in the archives though.
I dont know if this has been brought up before and I sure don't know the answer, but what are the implications of this cooling in the Eastern part of the country from the alteration in the jet stream Dr. Masters alluded to interacting with the abnormally cold ocean temps over the Northeast in the wake of Hurricane Arthur and strong North winds causing massive upwelling? Could they plausibly interact in a way that caused the Northeast to experience rather dramatic cool conditions for the rest of the summer? I never studied meteorology, but I am scientist by trade and looking at interactions between two phenomena is sort of a vice.
Quoting 348. tc1120:

I dont know if this has been brought up before and I sure don't know the answer, but what are the implications of this cooling in the Eastern part of the country from the alteration in the jet stream Dr. Masters alluded to interacting with the abnormally cold ocean temps over the Northeast in the wake of Hurricane Arthur and strong North winds causing massive upwelling? Could they plausibly interact in a way that caused the Northeast to experience rather dramatic cool conditions for the rest of the summer? I never studied meteorology, but I am scientist by trade and looking at interactions between two phenomena is sort of a vice.


I forgot to mention that I ask because I live on a barrier island off Long Island and we have been experiencing some very intense wind this summer, way more than normal. Trees branches and shingles breaking on just a normal afternoon because of the dramatic difference in water temp (61 F as of 3 days ago) and air temp (83+) causing heavy ocean breezes.
JMA upgrades 92W to TD:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 09N 152E WNW SLOWLY.
Quoting 351. Tropicsweatherpr:

JMA upgrades 92W to TD:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 09N 152E WNW SLOWLY.




Quite small at the moment.
Quoting 352. Envoirment:





Quite small at the moment.


It will be interesting to see which model does the best with this the very aggressive GFS/FIM or the nothng ECMWF.
Well, for us in Texas, Summer will be underway starting Friday.

We very well may receive our first 100 degree day this weekend.
And if we don't get it over the weekend, we will definitely reach 100 degrees at the beginning of next week.
Quoting 339. Birkenstocks:

Grrr. I keep getting challenged by deniers and having a hard time making an argument for our cause.
Check this one: Link


I believe this is just a really lame trolling attempt, but on the off chance you are being legitimate, this should answer all your questions.

Link Link

Quoting 353. Tropicsweatherpr:



It will be interesting to see which model does the best with this the very aggressive GFS/FIM or the nothng ECMWF.


The ECMWF isn't really one for tropical cyclone genesis though. Hopefully once it has the info on the TD put into its system it'll start showing up in future runs.
Quoting TylerStanfield:
Well, for us in Texas, Summer will be underway starting Friday.

We very well may receive our first 100 degree day this weekend.


Most of Texas has their hottest average temps in August. Ganked from weatherhistorian's blog.

Quoting 349. tc1120:



I forgot to mention that I ask because I live on a barrier island off Long Island and we have been experiencing some very intense wind this summer, way more than normal. Trees branches and shingles breaking on just a normal afternoon because of the dramatic difference in water temp (61 F as of 3 days ago) and air temp (83 ) causing heavy ocean breezes.

Sell your house immediately. Do not scrimp on repair costs, but do get as many references as humanly possible. The highest house in Greenwich is not safe this season. Look for much higher elevation with a hill between the south. El.275 minimum within a 200 mile radius. Weather code "quick flip". When you sell a house in that neighborhood, it is about the bathrooms and kitchen. The kind of people that live there buy the already finished product and are not interested in the process.
Quoting 357. DonnieBwkGA:



Most of Texas has their hottest average temps in August. Ganked from weatherhistorian's blog.



Average high for this time of year around here is 97F. This has been what our month has looked like so far -

For it to be mid July and for us to not have recorded a single 100F day after what kind of Summers we have dealt with the past few years, I have no complaints.
Quoting Birkenstocks:

LOL. You're the third one today with that line. The denier isn't your friend, it's you. Your little trick really isn't all that slick.
good night all..

Retweeted by Brad Panovich
Ricky Matthews ‏@wxrjm 2h

Cape Lookout Ranger says they've found birds from FL, Bahamas and Caribbean on NC coastline after Arthur. Radar saw birds in eye @nsj
I was listening to the "sound" of the solar flare hitting Voyager I and II in deep space. As I continued to read about it, I stumbled upon information linking solar flares to El Nino conditions. The flares can react with our atmosphere, and they do about every 11.4 years. We are at the peak year for flares, and we went through the tail of this recent flare.

Before anyone puts away their umbrellas, I am curious to see how this will affect the indexes.
If you want to see the flare: Link

or listen to the flare: Link

Quoting 359. TylerStanfield:


Average high for this time of year around here is 97F. This has been what our month has looked like so far -

For it to be mid July and for us to not have recorded a single 100F day after what kind of Summers we have dealt with the past few years, I have no complaints.
Assuming you live in Texas, I have no problem with the heat ridge not being as strong this year. Less ridging over Texas = less Mexico storms, and more hurricane chases for Kori (assuming they fall on my days off, of course). Nate wanted to pay Louisiana a visit in 2011... but Texas had other plans.
Quoting 348. tc1120:

I dont know if this has been brought up before and I sure don't know the answer, but what are the implications of this cooling in the Eastern part of the country from the alteration in the jet stream Dr. Masters alluded to interacting with the abnormally cold ocean temps over the Northeast in the wake of Hurricane Arthur and strong North winds causing massive upwelling? Could they plausibly interact in a way that caused the Northeast to experience rather dramatic cool conditions for the rest of the summer? I never studied meteorology, but I am scientist by trade and looking at interactions between two phenomena is sort of a vice.
This sounds like a good question to email the doc about.
Quoting Envoirment:


The ECMWF isn't really one for tropical cyclone genesis though. Hopefully once it has the info on the TD put into its system it'll start showing up in future runs.


The ECMWF was the first global model to even pick up Arthur and did the best with it. It doesn't do great with very poorly organized systems that have little-to-no chance of intensifying (which is why it missed most of our cyclones last year), of which Arthur was not. That being I've never seen such an extreme discrepancy between the two models. Obviously something is severely out of whack with the GFS or the ECMWF for one to be showing a 918mb Category 5 monster and the other one to be showing a fart in the wind, so to speak.
Quoting 361. ncstorm:

good night all..

Retweeted by Brad Panovich
Ricky Matthews ‏@wxrjm 2h

Cape Lookout Ranger says they've found birds from FL, Bahamas and Caribbean on NC coastline after Arthur. Radar saw birds in eye @nsj
Goodnight ncstorm and goodnight everyone. Nice chatting with you all tonight. Stay dry from the weather and I hope those that missed out on the rain get some tomorrow. :)
Quoting TylerStanfield:

Average high for this time of year around here is 97F. This has been what our month has looked like so far -

For it to be mid July and for us to not have recorded a single 100F day after what kind of Summers we have dealt with the past few years, I have no complaints.

Sure, you shipped your heat over to south Alabama. :-) It was 101 today with a low of 72, but the low was only that "cool" because we had outflow winds from some passing thunderstorms. This was our third high above 100 in July, and our lows have been in the mid-70's. Our normal is 89 and 68. Even though it's usually hot here, it's usually not this hot nor hot for this long. I have a little trouble believing that this supposed outbreak of cold air next week is going to be of any help to us. Maybe Minnesota, but not us.
Quoting 366. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Goodnight ncstorm and goodnight everyone. Nice chatting with you all tonight. Stay dry from the weather and I hope those that missed out on the rain get some tomorrow. :)
G'night Bubba.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


The ECMWF was the first global model to even pick up Arthur and did the best with it. It doesn't do great with very poorly organized systems that have little-to-no chance of intensifying (which is why it missed most of our cyclones last year), of which Arthur was not. That being I've never seen such an extreme discrepancy between the two models. Obviously something is severely out of whack with the GFS or the ECMWF for one to be showing a 918mb Category 5 monster and the other one to be showing a fart in the wind, so to speak.

I think the Euro also did pretty good with intensity on Arthur as well. After Arthur left the Florida coast, all the major models were pretty well clustered on the track but I do think that's because Arthur became a "real" storm. The models don't do well with weak systems, of which we've had so many. It will be interesting to see if the models continue to do well, assuming we get any more "real" storms. :-)
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Goodnight ncstorm and goodnight everyone. Nice chatting with you all tonight. Stay dry from the weather and I hope those that missed out on the rain get some tomorrow. :)

GN Caleb. We got our one hundredth of an inch and some cooler temperatures so it could have been worse. At least I could walk Radar Dog before 11:00 pm today. :-)
Quoting 363. KoritheMan:


Assuming you live in Texas, I have no problem with the heat ridge not being as strong this year. Less ridging over Texas = less Mexico storms, and more hurricane chases for Kori (assuming they fall on my days off, of course). Nate wanted to pay Louisiana a visit in 2011... but Texas had other plans.



You have to assume that? Sheesh....If you were a noob on the blog Kori, I would give you a break...

P.S. This year is gonna be a bad year for Kori.
Quoting opal92nwf:

Useless (November 30, 2007)
Stu Ostro, Senior Meteorologist

Warning: I'm feeling ornery. And cynical and jaded. As the late, great blues musician Albert King once put it, "I'm getting old, and I get tired easily, and my bunion is hoitin'." Well, actually, although I did have a bunion, it has subsided, but there's something which I am getting real tired of and is causing my head to be hoitin'.
Other than being predisposed to headaches ever since my first winter as a professional meteorologist 27 (yikes!) years ago, why the throbbing pain?
Seasonal hurricane outlooks.
Those who have been readers of The Weather Channel blog since its inception know that this is not the first time I've written passionately about this topic; in fact I've posted on it starting in March 2006 and again during the '06 season and again at the end of it, and TWC hurricane expert Dr. Steve Lyons has written about it as well. In that entry posted a year ago today I also used a musical reference, concluding that "hopefully the public and the media -- to quote the title of one of The Who's most well-known songs -- won't get fooled again."
Well, along came spring 2007 and it was the same thing all over again, but even though I know I'm preaching into a mighty strong headwind, I figure it's worth at least one more try ... and there are some signs that the tide may be turning. As you'll see if you read on, the issues with seasonal outlooks are striking a chord these days, and, by the way, I had no idea Mike Bettes was going to post his own entry on the subject yesterday; I had already drafted this article, so I'm not just copying him nor did I have an intent to "pile on" to what he said!
Like him, though, with the 2007 hurricane season "officially" ending I've been thinking back on what the forecasts were for it prior to the start of the season, and what they were for the '06 season, and what happened back in 2005, and how there are more organizations and individuals getting involved in that game than there used to be.
And my head hurts when I think about how in general the media reacts with a frenzy when a seasonal outlook is publicly issued or updated, scrambling to go to press or air or online with the breaking news, like birds of prey on a fresh piece of meat, as if there had just been a major international incident. Continue reading @Link

What he says is so true. Keep on doing research in better long-term hurricane forecasts, submit the papers, get published in a science journal, but stop with giant media circuses around the release. April forecasts are of no use to the general public and, as Gray et al have found, if you keep making a big deal out of forecasts that don't come true, your sponsors will become ex-sponsors. It's kind of similar to the upcoming El Nino release on Thursday. Have they come up with some kind of magic information just tonight that they'll release with great fanfare tomorrow? I kind of doubt it, but it will be a media circus.
Quoting 365. CybrTeddy:



The ECMWF was the first global model to even pick up Arthur and did the best with it. It doesn't do great with very poorly organized systems that have little-to-no chance of intensifying (which is why it missed most of our cyclones last year), of which Arthur was not. That being I've never seen such an extreme discrepancy between the two models. Obviously something is severely out of whack with the GFS or the ECMWF for one to be showing a 918mb Category 5 monster and the other one to be showing a fart in the wind, so to speak.
I am inclined more to believe the Gfs right now because even the CMC is showing triplets.
Very interesting post-analysis of Hurricane Arthur, with animations from the Global Precipitation Measurement Core Observatory: GPM Dissects Hurricane Arthur - Visualizations by Alex Kekesi on July 8, 2014
PS G'night all,and don't feed the trolls.
Why does everyone think there will not be an el Nino?
Quoting 373. allancalderini:

I am inclined more to believe the Gfs right now because even the CMC is showing triplets.



I think we are going to have some more tropical storm action next week.
Quoting Grothar:



can you give me a link to that site.
Quoting 375. Grothar:

Why does everyone think there will not be an el Nino?
Tbh I am tired of kids, my brother is enough XD. Taking the jokes Aside I believe the recent developments have make us believe that there might be an El Niño but later in the season and much weaker.
Quoting 339. Birkenstocks:

Grrr. I keep getting challenged by deniers and having a hard time making an argument for our cause.
Check this one: Link


You might want to ignore them instead of relaying their garbage arguments here. A lot of people can supply you with some legitimate sources of information so that you don't need to get information from "deniers" and anti-science sources.

See also my response to your previous comment.
Quoting 378. HurricaneAndre:

can you give me a link to that site.


No.
Quoting Grothar:


No.
why not.
Quoting 357. DonnieBwkGA:



Most of Texas has their hottest average temps in August. Ganked from weatherhistorian's blog.




Thats a great map, here its about July 20th always thought it was just because of sun energy. Did not realize how much it varied.

Quoting 377. HurricaneAndre:

I think we are going to have some more tropical storm action next week.
In the Atlantic? Why?
Quoting KoritheMan:

In the Atlantic? Why?
thats just my thinking and based off the FIM Models.
Quoting 377. HurricaneAndre:

I think we are going to have some more tropical storm action next week.
Your optimism reminds me of someone who always says that all storms are going to pass by his area and they can be 1000 miles away. We need to be realistic and tbh I don't see anything right now that could spark tropical development in the Atlantic.

Quoting 382. HurricaneAndre:

why not.
I'd assume because maybe it's a paid site.
Quoting 375. Grothar:

Why does everyone think there will not be an el Nino?



I didn't expect one until about October or November anyway.

1997

Quoting 382. HurricaneAndre:

why not.


Grothar:



@Gro: *wink*
Quoting Astrometeor:


Grothar:



@Gro: *wink*
Small wave moving into the Windwards

Quoting 375. Grothar:

Why does everyone think there will not be an el Nino?
Why does everyone think everyone thinks there will not be an el Nino?

Quoting 389. Astrometeor:



Grothar:



@Gro: *wink*


Why you little....... :)
Quoting 392. BahaHurican:

Why does everyone think everyone thinks there will not be an el Nino?




Because I didn't want to call anyone an "el Nino denialist", so I included everyone. :):)
Quoting 390. DonnieBwkGA:




Donnie, do see the abuse they heap on a poor little old man??

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #58A
Storm Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM NEOGURI (T1408)
13:00 PM JST July 10 2014
=============================

110 KM South Of Kōchi [Kōchi Prefecture]

At 4:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Neoguri (985 hPa) located at 32.6N 133.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots.. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 20 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
325 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
210 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
Quoting 393. Grothar:



Why you little....... :)


Good night Old Man.

Night blog.
Quoting Grothar:
Why does everyone think there will not be an el Nino?

Cripes, I have no clue about the technical details of El Nino but, having been through a few of them, they always had an effect on sensible weather before El Nino was crowned. As I mentioned earlier. Spring bought weather very much like I'd expect with an El Nino. June and, so far, July, have bought just the opposite. I don't really know if there will be an El Nino ultimately, but it looks like it certainly won't be the "Super" version. I suspect it will be moderate at best and the onset will be delayed until well into the fall months.
Quoting Astrometeor:


Good night Old Man.

Night blog.

GN, Astro. Does Gro remind you of your old man? :-)
Quoting Grothar:


Donnie, do see the abuse they heap on a poor little old man??


Speaking of abuse, are you still holding out for a GOH storm formation?
Quoting KoritheMan:

In the Atlantic? Why?

Andre has always been the eternal optimist and drum beater for the next storm. In his world, the big one is just around the corner. :-)
403. jpsb
Quoting 330. Naga5000:



It's comments like this from Dr. Rood that give me pause:

during this prediction cycle we have levels of sea ice that are far lower than in previous El Niño cycles.


Quoting DCSwithunderscores:


You might want to ignore them instead of relaying their garbage arguments here. A lot of people can supply you with some legitimate sources of information so that you don't need to get information from "deniers" and anti-science sources.

See also my response to your previous comment.

I have always doubted an organized effort to set up accounts here just to post links to articles that are clearly anti-science and have already been debunked numerous times. Over the past several days, I'm beginning to believe that might actually be trues we've had at least six posts, all from people with low posts counts or who are brand new. It's always the same M.O. - "I'm a great believer in the climate change/global warming but I have this friend, see, who this denier, see, and he showed me this preposterous article. Not having a clue about how to set the record straight with a 5 second Google search, I have come here to enlist your help.". It's always a different but still preposterous article. A hallmark with these pot stirrers is that they never answer those who attempt to be so helpful to them. Scoundrels...
405. vis0
Credit:: NOAA presented via CANADA.gov site
Imagery Type:: IR 10-7µm
Imagery Area:: Atlantic (nearing/entering Venezuela)
Imagery subject:: disturbance(~Tropical wave) pTwF, my POI4
Imagery period:: 201407-06;0245UTC till 201407-10;0245UTC

Used the wave that came off Western Africa to explain something on my blog, decided to post the longer (3+ more frames) version here.
Quoting 348. tc1120:

I dont know if this has been brought up before and I sure don't know the answer, but what are the implications of this cooling in the Eastern part of the country from the alteration in the jet stream Dr. Masters alluded to interacting with the abnormally cold ocean temps over the Northeast in the wake of Hurricane Arthur and strong North winds causing massive upwelling?


I predict massive ergot infestation of the rye crop and a flood of witch trials.
Quoting 406. nonblanche:



I predict massive ergot infestation of the rye crop and a flood of witch trials.

Possibly the cooling of the mid west will also bring on a spate of out of season sweater purchases along with a severe drop in barbecue product sales.
Such catastrophes are seldom predicted accurately, even by experienced weather foreseers!
It is an "ill jet stream" witch does not blow somebody some good.
408. vis0
Subject:: Outage at GOES East 1-km Infrared,Visible & watervapor Weather Satellite Image Site(s)

EXPLANATION:: We will be affected by a building-wide power outage that is expected to last from Friday afternoon, July 11, 2014 through Monday morning, July 14, 2014. During this time, access to this web server and real-time GOES imagery will be unavailable. We apologize for the inconvenience.

REACTION::


CREDIT:: Turkey image from http://jacquelinegum.com/tag/humorous-aging/
I am trying to figure out how to respond to e-mails I'm receiving from Weather Underground advising me that my PWS is not reporting. I haven't been able to figure that out yet. The reason why my PWS is not reporting is because my internet along with thousands of others' internet has been knocked out due to Typhoon Neoguri. I am here in Okinawa having survived the typhoon. I took my weather station in but my internet will be out until early next week. Anyone have an idea how I can get this information to Weather Underground? Thanks in advance. Tom
Quoting 404. sar2401:


I have always doubted an organized effort to set up accounts here just to post links to articles that are clearly anti-science and have already been debunked numerous times. Over the past several days, I'm beginning to believe that might actually be trues we've had at least six posts, all from people with low posts counts or who are brand new. It's always the same M.O. - "I'm a great believer in the climate change/global warming but I have this friend, see, who this denier, see, and he showed me this preposterous article. Not having a clue about how to set the record straight with a 5 second Google search, I have come here to enlist your help.". It's always a different but still preposterous article. A hallmark with these pot stirrers is that they never answer those who attempt to be so helpful to them. Scoundrels...


It's organised, all right. They infest the Telegraph site, even posting on science stories completely unrelated to climate. Yesterday, there was a story about light in the universe being greater than theory predicted. I posted in the comments section, as did many global warming deniers. i got so incensed, that I replied to one, saying that I was flagging all such replies, as they were hijacking the thread, and suggesting that others do likewise. There was no personal abuse in the reply. The poster replied that he was reporting me. Guess whose post got deleted? Mine.

Quoting yonzabam:


It's organised, all right. They infest the Telegraph site, even posting on science stories completely unrelated to climate. Yesterday, there was a story about light in the universe being greater than theory predicted. I posted in the comments section, as did many global warming deniers. i got so incensed, that I replied to one, saying that I was flagging all such replies, as they were hijacking the thread, and suggesting that others do likewise. There was no personal abuse in the reply. The poster replied that he was reporting me. Guess whose post got deleted? Mine.
I had a similar experience with my local newspaper in 2003-4 after the U.S. invaded Iraq. I was writing in opposition to the war and met with drastic hostility and picayune objections from the editor at every turn. In the meantime, he was flooding the editorial page with letters-to-the-editor supporting "intelligent design" as a better answer than evolution to the question about man's origins.

Sometimes you just have to give in. The editorial board and owners of the Telegraph are notoriously right wing and anti-science. They feature a writer named James Delingpole who specializes in disinformation about climate.

You are not going to win a battle at the Telegraph based on facts or science. In fact, you are guaranteed to lose.

I'm reminded of the fact that Richard Dawkins never gets serious coverage at the Telegraph either.


El Nino discussion with Canadian met prof Paul Beckwith. 13 minutes. It held my attention, YMMV.

Beckwith notes that the 1997-98 El Nino resulted in 20,000 excess deaths and nearly $100 Billion in losses. That's quite a record for a Child visiting around Christmas-time.


Morning hello with a nice map from German National Weather Service DWD about our strange low "Michaela" yesterday. Click the map to enlarge:






From Estofex for July 10:
A level 2 was issued for parts of central Germany and Poland mainly for excessive precipitation. ...
Southern Poland, central Germany, Benelux, eastern France, and surroundings:
Along the well-developed warm front at the northern flank of the cut-off low, very moist air is still present. Diurnal heating north of the warm front will again lead to widespread initiation of storms in the noon and afternoon hours.
Strong moisture flux convergence is expected over the Benelux countries during the day, with a 0-1 km mixing ratio near 14 g/kg. Storms moving nearly parallel to the low-level convergence zone and rather slow storm motion will increase the potential of excessive precipitation. Large hail and local severe wind gusts are not ruled out.
Further east, low-level vertical wind shear increases, and a few tornadoes may form over central and eastern Germany as well as central Poland during the afternoon hours due to strong low-level buoyancy. Main focus will be outflow-boundaries of previous storms. Additionally, storms moving nearly parallel to the warm front over central Germany and central Poland will again pose a threat of excessive rain. ...




----------------------------

From India:
Deficient monsoon: Government ready with contingency plan
Thursday, 10 July 2014 - 8:00am IST | Place: New Delhi | Agency: DNA

-----------------------

Amazing idea from a youngster:
Dutch teen targets Pacific Ocean 'plastic soup' menace
PhysOrg, 15 hours ago by Nicolas Delaunay
Dutch student Boyan Slat is only 19 years old, but he already has 100 people working on his revolutionary plan to scoop thousands of tonnes of damaging plastics from the oceans. ...

Have a nice day everybody!
Good morning.

TCFA for 92W.

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.5N 152.7E TO 12.9N 146.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 100700Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.9N 151.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.8N
152.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 151.7E, APPROXIMATELY 455 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM OBSCURING A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 100608Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH
FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. AN OLDER 092308Z ASCAT PASS
SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED 10 TO 15 KNOT CIRCULATION AND ISOLATED 20 TO
25 KNOT WIND BARBS OVER THE NORTHERN QUADRANTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DUAL OUTFLOW, ONE ENHANCED BY
A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND A WESTWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO
THE NORTH. NUMERIC WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS DEVELOP THIS
DISTURBANCE IN VARYING DEGREES WITH THE MOST AGGRESSIVE BEING GFS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO
PERSISTENT CONVECTION, IMPROVING ORGANZIATION AND FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

Quoting 415. Tropicsweatherpr:

Good morning.

TCFA for 92W.

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.5N 152.7E TO 12.9N 146.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 100700Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.9N 151.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.8N
152.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 151.7E, APPROXIMATELY 455 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM OBSCURING A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 100608Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH
FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. AN OLDER 092308Z ASCAT PASS
SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED 10 TO 15 KNOT CIRCULATION AND ISOLATED 20 TO
25 KNOT WIND BARBS OVER THE NORTHERN QUADRANTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DUAL OUTFLOW, ONE ENHANCED BY
A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND A WESTWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO
THE NORTH. NUMERIC WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS DEVELOP THIS
DISTURBANCE IN VARYING DEGREES WITH THE MOST AGGRESSIVE BEING GFS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO
PERSISTENT CONVECTION, IMPROVING ORGANZIATION AND FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.






looks like it will become a monster
Quoting 375. Grothar:

Why does everyone think there will not be an el Nino?


Looks like we will have at least a weak El Nino, even if it isn't "declared" until after the summer 2014. Lately, it appears there has been some unusual weather happenings around the world, in different places. Blame it on our upcoming El Nino!?

Locally .. along the Gulf Coast, today we are having a cold front move in from the north, and so far this summer we have had mostly westerly winds. Also, in the upper levels, we have had weather constantly move in from the north. Not unheard of, but sort of ... unusual. Reminds me of 2009 or 1987.

How this might affect the rest of the Atlantic hurricane season is anyone's guess. It might get very interesting!!
418. JRRP


interesting!!
419. JRRP
i do not know why some people think that will not be an el Niño... i said that this will be an el niño but not as strong as some people thought

weak for hurricane season and may be moderated by fall or winter
hello all..

NC/SC/VA looks to be getting some heavy rain in the future..

This would be cool for Mid July..
422. SuzK
Quoting 218. sar2401:


Ice age? Freezing to death? Yes, I'm a betting man. How much do you want to put up?


You live in Bama right? Not too cold down there sar. Up here in the north, the glaciers paralleled I-80, basically just where I live. Yes the ice is coming back. It might not be this winter or next, but we're overdue for cold in an extended interglacial warming, and we all have learned that change is inevitable and can happen very fast. I've been studying and watching since the late 70's at the university, and so far nothing is surprising. That a huge warming can bring on a huge chill, I thought was established science. I won't bet; I know better, as I said. But don't diss me dude when you have no chance to freeze to death in a warm climate from lack of fuel to create life saving heat.
Quoting hydrus:
This would be cool for Mid July..


I remember one year in Oklahoma it got really chilly in July. We had a lake house in N.E. Oklahoma and it was so cool we were wearing sweaters and light jackets.
Most of the time it's 90 degrees during July in Oklahoma. But every one once in a while, a rare summer cold front will push through the area and give them very unseasonal like temperatures.
Hurricane Dennis - 9 years ago today!

Hurricane Dennis on July 10, 2005, intensified into a CAT4 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico .. with 145MPH winds! Offshore, it surpassed Hurricane Audrey (June 1957) in intensity.

Dennis made landfall on Santa Rosa Island, between Gulf Breeze and Navarre Beach, FL. Winds were near 120MPH, and luckily for residents living along the coast, the storm weakened just before landfall.

What I remember the most on visual inspection was .. the area of max wind damage was confined to a very small area along the Florida Panhandle, and how it hit less than 10 months after the same area was clobbered by Hurricane Ivan (2004).

It appeared the area of MAX winds was confined to an area less than 20 miles across the coast. But, it was still a powerful hurricane! For such a small hurricane, the highest storm surge from Hurricane Dennis was oddly located over 100-150 miles farther east than the eye landfall - in St. Marks and the Big Bend area of Florida.
Quoting hydrus:
This would be cool for Mid July..


I would say if you needed a coat in Mid-July that would classify as cold! Yikes. Sometimes a cooldown is welcome after extended periods of heat :o)

Now this is impressive. Polar Vortex, July Edition!
Quoting Grothar:
Small wave moving into the Windwards



Had me running around the house at 3:00 AM closing windows and stumbling over furniture when a strong squall came through.
1/4'' in the cup overnight, and hopefully some more during the day.

The garden looks like it's been scrubbed, buffed and polished.
Sun is yet to show it's smiling face, hidden away behind looming lugubrious layers of whatnot and stuff.

Very nice !
Quoting StormWx:


I would say if you needed a coat in Mid-July that would classify as cold! Yikes. Sometimes a cooldown is welcome after extended periods of heat :o)

Now this is impressive. Polar Vortex, July Edition!


Yeah, it was a bummer and not typical.
Most years the water temperature in the lake would be about 90 degrees with air temperatures near 100. One year we had temperatures over 100 degrees for over a month straight.
Good Morning. Here is the current status of the Atlantic ITCZ. Currently averaging around 8N and will slowly be rising over the the next 45 days towards the magical/coreolis 10N mark and the start of the Cape Verde part of the season in mid-August.
Latest ATLAN Zonal Mean IR Temperatures
Heat Wave of 2011

It's official: July was a scorcher. High temperatures in communities across the USA broke or tied records 2,676 times, almost double the number (1,444) of a year ago, the National Weather Service reports.

Temperatures in Newark, N.J., set an all-time record of 108. Highs in Atlantic City, N.J., topped 105 for two straight days. Washington endured its hottest July since 1871. In Oklahoma City, temps topped 100 for 27 of the last 30 days of July. Dallas/Fort Worth is enduring its second longest stretch of consecutive 100-plus days at 30, closing in on the record of 42 in 1980, says Chris Vaccaro of the National Weather Service.

August is unlikely to offer much relief, forecasters say. The heat wave anchored over the Central and Southern Plains states, including drought-stricken Texas, is capped by a colossal vault of high pressure that has locked out cooler air currents from Canada.

Vaccaro says the heat wave "has affected, at some point, nearly all of the eastern two-thirds of the United States. It has been relentless, with triple-digit heat for weeks, hitting areas that are not accustomed to high heat. Portland, Maine, hit 102 degrees a couple of weeks ago. We had temperatures in the hundreds in Minnesota, Wisconsin and the Dakotas."

At its worst, July's heat wave extended through 32 states. Eighteen states have heat advisories, from North Dakota to Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and parts of Georgia and the Carolinas.


"We're looking at another heat wave in the week ahead," Vaccaro says. "We'll see heat creep into the upper Midwest, the Dakotas, Minnesota and Iowa."

This week, Northern states may get a reprieve but not Georgia and the Carolinas, where temps may top 100, says Mark Ressler, meteorologist at the Weather Channel. High humidity and lofty nighttime temperatures have made matters worse, Ressler says.

"We not only have record highs, but also record high overnight lows, with temperatures staying way up in the 80s overnight," he says. "That has added to how oppressive this air mass has been, especially where people don't have access to air conditioning. There's no relief."

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/weather/news/2011- 07-31-heat-record-july_n.htm








Lake Michigan well below the long term average for this time of year, it never has fully recovered from the harsh winter.



Superior
Bone dry in most of the Atlantic and Caribbean with the exception of the Lesser Antilles and the Gulf.  I am sure that the Antilles appreciate as much rain as they can squeeze out of these showers:
Got boomers heading our way this morning..already hear the thunder

And finally  a current Satt shot of Africa; Bone dry in Northern Africa as well which is contributing to the large proliferation of SAL in the Atlantic:
FXUS63 KLOT 101128
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
628 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

.DISCUSSION...
337 AM CDT

NICE TODAY...NOT BAD TOMORROW...PARTLY STORMY OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN THE UNSEASONABLY COOL HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH A JULY VERSION OF THE POLAR VORTEX...A "POLAR VORTEX LIGHT" IF
YOU WILL.

TAKE YESTERDAY AND ADD A COUPLE DEGREES IN TEMPS AND SUBTRACT ABOUT
5 MPH IN WINDS AND YOU HAVE TODAY`S FORECAST. PLEASANTLY COOL
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT THOUGH AN INCREASE IN
HIGH CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY LATE...ALONG WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD KEEP LOWS A BIT MILDER. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A
TRANSITION DAY TOWARD THE STORMIER PATTERN WITH DECAYING MCS
PROBABLY MOVING INTO THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH SUSPECT THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE RETURN AND PREFER THE
DRIER LOOKING NAM WITH PRECIP PROBABLY LIGHT AND SCATTERED.

FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS HAVE A PRETTY STRONG SIGNAL FOR AN MCS
DEVELOPING OVER IOWA DURING THE EVENING AND THEN TRACKING EAST INTO
THE CWA OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. GFS/NAM ARE BOTH ARE THE
MOST ROBUST WITH THIS FEATURE AND SHOW A STRONG CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED VORT AND APPARENT WELL DEVELOPED MCS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH
MUCAPES OF 1000 J/KG OR LESS FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM AND ONLY
MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SO NOT LOOKING LIKE A BIG SEVERE WEATHER
MAKER EVEN IF GFS/NAM VERIFY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE HEADING INTO SATURDAY IS LOW AND HINGES LARGELY
ON THE FORECASTABILITY OF CONVECTION. ASSUMING A MORNING MCS ROLLS
THROUGH THE AREA...THE REMNANT COLD POOL AND DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
WOULD LIKELY KEEP TEMPS COOLER THAN GUIDANCE AND HAVE SHAVE A COUPLE
DEGREES OFF GOING FORECAST. IF AFOREMENTIONED MCS DOES NOT
MATERIALIZE THEN IT WILL BE A WARM AND RATHER HUMID DAY. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION SAT AFTERNOON WOULD LIKELY BE DEPEND ON LEFT OVER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM NOCTURNAL STORMS.

DETAILS VARY SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE MODELS SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT DUE TO DIFFERING HANDLING OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. BASICALLY
IT WILL NOT BE A TOTAL WASH OUT...BUT STORM APPEAR POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS WE REMAIN IN THE PERTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IF A
SIGNIFICANT MCS DRIVES EFFECTIVE SFC FRONT SOUTHWARD AT SOME POINT
IN TIME...THEN DRIER WEATHER WOULD LIKELY PREVAIL IN ITS WAKE.

ABNORMALLY HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FORECAST TO DEVELOP
NEXT WEEK WITH GFS/GEM NOW JUMPING ONTO THE ECMWF BANDWAGON OF THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS DEVELOPING AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW...A SUMMER VERSION OF THE POLAR VORTEX...TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NEXT WEEK. VERY IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PROJECTED WITH 500MB
HEIGHTS FORECAST TO FALL TO 3+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW AVERAGE
WITH 850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP TO AROUND 5C. THIS IS LIKELY
OVERDONE SOMEWHAT...AS NARR DATA GOING BACK TO 1979 SHOWS THE
COLDEST 850MB TEMPS WE HAVE SEEN AROUND HERE IN MID-LATE JULY IS
AROUND 7C...SO THIS GOES TO SHOW JUST HOW IMPRESSIVE OF A "COLD"
SNAP IS BEING PROJECTED. HAVE NUDGED TEMPS A BIT BELOW THE BLENDED
MODEL COCKTAIL...AS SIMILAR 850MB TEMPS IN THE SUMMER OF 2009
RESULTED IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S! PATTERN DOES LOOK TO BE
PROGRESSIVE...SO TEMPS LOOK TO MODERATE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT
IF CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE REASONABLY CLOSE TO VERIFYING THEN THE
SUBURBAN AND RURAL AREAS CAN LOOK FORWARD TO SOME LOWS IN THE 40S
NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR RECORD LOWS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION!




i wounder if any one will see any early season snow from this cold spell may be in the vary far N
Here is the July CPC update that has no big changes from past updates.

Synopsis: The chance of El Nio is about 70% during the Northern Hemisphere summer and is close to 80% during the fall and early winter.

CPC July update

Yikes is this daytime highs ?


Quoting 423. Sfloridacat5:



I remember one year in Oklahoma it got really chilly in July. We had a lake house in N.E. Oklahoma and it was so cool we were wearing sweaters and light jackets.
Most of the time it's 90 degrees during July in Oklahoma. But every one once in a while, a rare summer cold front will push through the area and give them very unseasonal like temperatures.

438. JRRP
Quoting 430. StormWx:

Lake Michigan well below the long term average for this time of year, it never has fully recovered from the harsh winter.



Superior


...and this isn't going to help:



That's pretty unusual for mid-July. I'm almost starting to think something weird is happening to our weather....
as tropics has pointed out....cpc has released their july ENSO update....and still expects an el nino event....here's there summary page

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
10 July 2014

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch

Synopsis: The chance of El Niño is about 70% during the Northern Hemisphere summer and is close to 80% during the fall and early winter.
During June 2014, above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) were most prominent in the eastern equatorial Pacific, with weakening evident near the International Date Line (Fig. 1). This weakening was reflected in a decrease to +0.3°C in the Niño-4 index (Fig. 2). The Niño-3.4 index remained around +0.5°C throughout the month, while the easternmost Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 indices are +1.0°C or greater. Subsurface heat content anomalies (averaged between 180º-100ºW) have decreased substantially since late March 2014 and are now near average (Fig. 3). However, above-average subsurface temperatures remain prevalent near the surface (down to 100m depth) in the eastern half of the Pacific (Fig. 4). The upper-level and low-level winds over the tropical Pacific remained near average, except for low-level westerly anomalies over the eastern Pacific. Convection was enhanced near and just west of the Date Line and over portions of Indonesia (Fig. 5). Still, the lack of a clear and consistent atmospheric response to the positive SSTs indicates ENSO-neutral.
Over the last month, no significant change was evident in the model forecasts of ENSO, with the majority of models indicating El Niño onset within June-August and continuing into early 2015 (Fig. 6). The chance of a strong El Niño is not favored in any of the ensemble averages for Niño-3.4. At this time, the forecasters anticipate El Niño will peak at weak-to-moderate strength during the late fall and early winter (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index between 0.5°C and 1.4°C). The chance of El Niño is about 70% during the Northern Hemisphere summer and is close to 80% during the fall and early winter (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome).
This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 7 August 2014. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.
I really think between the shear, cooler water temps, el nino, SAL (looks really bad with hardly any moisture over Africa where not going to see much of a hurricane season. This is just my little opinion.

Sheri
442. JRRP
Quoting ricderr:
as tropics has pointed out....cpc has released their july ENSO update....and still expects an el nino event....here's there summary page

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
10 July 2014

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch

Synopsis: The chance of El Niño is about 70% during the Northern Hemisphere summer and is close to 80% during the fall and early winter.
During June 2014, above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) were most prominent in the eastern equatorial Pacific, with weakening evident near the International Date Line (Fig. 1). This weakening was reflected in a decrease to +0.3°C in the Niño-4 index (Fig. 2). The Niño-3.4 index remained around +0.5°C throughout the month, while the easternmost Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 indices are +1.0°C or greater. Subsurface heat content anomalies (averaged between 180º-100ºW) have decreased substantially since late March 2014 and are now near average (Fig. 3). However, above-average subsurface temperatures remain prevalent near the surface (down to 100m depth) in the eastern half of the Pacific (Fig. 4). The upper-level and low-level winds over the tropical Pacific remained near average, except for low-level westerly anomalies over the eastern Pacific. Convection was enhanced near and just west of the Date Line and over portions of Indonesia (Fig. 5). Still, the lack of a clear and consistent atmospheric response to the positive SSTs indicates ENSO-neutral.
Over the last month, no significant change was evident in the model forecasts of ENSO, with the majority of models indicating El Niño onset within June-August and continuing into early 2015 (Fig. 6). The chance of a strong El Niño is not favored in any of the ensemble averages for Niño-3.4. At this time, the forecasters anticipate El Niño will peak at weak-to-moderate strength during the late fall and early winter (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index between 0.5°C and 1.4°C). The chance of El Niño is about 70% during the Northern Hemisphere summer and is close to 80% during the fall and early winter (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome).
This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 7 August 2014. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.
443. JRRP
Anthony Sagliani ‏@anthonywx 7 min
Key errors in CFS M-J-J SST forecast include Indian Ocean, Central Pacific and Western Pacific.



The chance of a strong El Niño is not favored in any of the ensemble averages for Niño-3.4. At this time, the forecasters anticipate El Niño will peak at weak-to-moderate strength during the late fall and early winter (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index between 0.5°C and 1.4°C).


now jr....i'm sure that no one...scientist or blogger....would have trumped a strong event...seeing that the time models were showing this was during the spring barrier period...why...that would border on being irresponsible.... :-)
Quoting weatherlover94:
Yikes is this daytime highs ?




I went back to check records for Oklahoma City and it has a history of having days with highs only in the upper 60s - low 70s with lows in the 50s at night during July.
So it can get a little cool for July in Oklahoma.

Record highs ranged from 103-110 degrees for July in Oklahoma City.
Record low for the month of July is 53 degrees back in 1971.
Coldest high temperature for July is 62 degrees back in 1953.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
447. JRRP
Quoting ricderr:
The chance of a strong El Niño is not favored in any of the ensemble averages for Niño-3.4. At this time, the forecasters anticipate El Niño will peak at weak-to-moderate strength during the late fall and early winter (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index between 0.5°C and 1.4°C).


now jr....i'm sure that no one...scientist or blogger....would have trumped a strong event...seeing that the time models were showing this was during the spring barrier period...why...that would border on being irresponsible.... :-)


is true
448. jpsb
Quoting 439. Neapolitan:


...and this isn't going to help:



That's pretty unusual for mid-July. I'm almost starting to think something weird is happening to our weather....



Ice ages (glaciation really since technically we are still in an ice age) start in North America, the rest of the globe can warm/hot but if North America gets cold watch out. The last interglacial the Eemian was much warmer then our current interglacial according to most paleoclimatologists. Yet somehow a switch was flipped (in North America) and the huge continental ice sheets began to form.

Watching the Polar Vortex is I think giving us a big clue of what weather looks like at the beginning of a glaciation period. I'm certainly not claiming that the ice sheets are coming any time soon. North America, Canada near the Hudson Bay area in particular, would need to get a lot colder for that. Just saying that I think our Polar Vortex is acting in a similar fashion.

Someone posted a temp chart of the Great Lakes. Burrr! Thanks for posting that.

Since there are been a lot of El Nino discussion I'll throw my two cents in too. I was never on board the super El Nino train and cautioned all that we don't even have an El Nino yet months ago. I will repeat that caution now for those saying El Nino is a bust. There is lots of warm water in the Tropical Pacific so an El Nino is still possible. Keep an eye on the cold water coming from Antarctic if that retreats then maybe an El Nino. Personally I think a retreat is unlikely given the unprecedented amount of sea ice floating in the Southern Ocean but that's just me and my record at making forecast is not so good.
Quoting Neapolitan:

...and this isn't going to help:



That's pretty unusual for mid-July. I'm almost starting to think something weird is happening to our weather....



These are precedented. Sometimes cool air does plunge into the U.S during July. In mid July 2000, cool dry air produced highs in the upper 50s with sun followed by patchy frost in the upper part of Lower Michigan. The August low temperature record at DCA was set in 1986 (8/30 I think) at 49F with wind during a cool outbreak. This air made it to TLH (where I was) setting monthly low record temperatures in the FL Panhandle and extreme south GA, mostly in the upper 50s to around 60 but it was also accompanied by wind under clouds. Low 60s with drizzle in the afternoon and a cold NE wind is not common TLH August weather
Quoting jpsb:



Ice ages (glaciation really since technically we are still in an ice age) start in North America, the rest of the globe can warm/hot but if North America gets cold watch out. The last interglacial the Eemian was much warmer then our current interglacial according to most paleoclimatologists. Yet somehow a switch was flipped (in North America) and the huge continental ice sheets began to form.

Watching the Polar Vortex is I think giving us a big clue of what weather looks like at the beginning of a glaciation period. I'm certainly not claiming that the ice sheets are coming any time soon. North America, Canada near the Hudson Bay area in particular, would need to get a lot colder for that. Just saying that I think our Polar Vortex is acting in a similar fashion.

Someone posted a temp chart of the Great Lakes. Burrr! Thanks for posting that.

Since there are been a lot of El Nino discussion I'll throw my two cents in too. I was never on board the super El Nino train and cautioned all that we don't even have an El Nino yet months ago. I will repeat that caution now for those saying El Nino is a bust. There is lots of warm water in the Tropical Pacific so an El Nino is still possible. Keep an eye on the cold water coming from Antarctic if that retreats then maybe an El Nino. Personally I think a retreat is unlikely given the unprecedented amount of sea ice floating in the Southern Ocean but that's just me and my record at making forecast is not so good.


So far it's not been a notably cool summer in the upper midwest or northeast even though the Great Lakes are cold from last winter.

The mid July cool outbreak will generate some buzz but these happen from time to time and it isn't unprecedented. For cool summers that generated some agricultural concern look to the early 60s; also 1992 in the midwest and 2000 in the northeast. 1961 was a very notably cold spring as well, the two coldest of the 20'th century were 1907 and 1961.