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Typhoon Neoguri Weakens to Category 3, But Still a Major Flood Threat to Japan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:37 PM GMT on July 08, 2014

The outer spiral bands of Typhoon Neoguri are lashing the large southern Japanese island of Kyushu as the storm heads north at 15 mph towards Japan. Despite seemingly favorable conditions for intensification on Monday and Tuesday morning, with low wind shear, very warm sea surface temperatures of 30 - 31°C, very warm waters extending to great depth, good upper-level outflow, and only modest amounts of dry air, Neoguri mysteriously weakened from a 155 mph super typhoon to a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds in the 30 hours ending at 11 am EDT Tuesday morning. Satellite images Tuesday morning showed a continued reduction in the intensity and areal coverage of Neoguri's heavy thunderstorms. Neoguri passed through Japan's Ryukyu Islands over the past day, killing one person and injuring 25, but the eyewall missed making a direct hit on any island. Some notable wind and rainfall reports from the islands:

Peak winds: Sustained winds of 79 mph, gusting to 118.6 mph at Tokashiki Island (according to the Japan Meteorological Agency)
Peak winds at Kadena AB (Okinawa): 74 mph, gusting to 101 mph
Kadena AB rainfall since 8am Monday: 24.03 inches, with 10.02 inches in 6 hours from roughly 3-9 p.m. JST today, and another 12.73 inches from 9 a.m. - 3 p.m. JST today


Figure 1. Radar image of the outer bands of Typhoon Neoguri affecting southern Japan, at 12:10 am local time Wednesday, July 9, 2014. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.

Forecast for Neoguri
Neoguri has been caught by a trough of low pressure and is expected to turn northeast towards the Japanese island of Kyushu, where the city of Nagasaki lies. A stalled stationary front over the island has been bringing flooding rains to Kyushu since Thursday; Ushibuka (in far southwest Japan) picked up 14.72 inches of rain over the past 48 hours. Nagasaki had upwards of 8 inches of rain on Thursday. With the soils already saturated from these heavy rains, the torrential rains from Neoguri are sure to cause significant flooding on Wednesday and Thursday. The latest 00Z and 06Z Tuesday runs of the European and GFS models showed landfall occurring between 00 - 04 UTC on Thursday. Ocean temperatures will cool and wind shear will rise as Neoguri approaches Japan, weakening the storm, and Neoguri is likely make landfall as a strong tropical storm or Category 1 typhoon. At this intensity, major wind damage would not occur; flood damage from heavy rains will be the main concern. Neoguri, pronounced "NAW-guh-ree", is named after the Korean word for raccoon dog. It is also a brand of ramen noodle in Korea.

Links
Japanese radar
Official Neoguri forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency

Neoguri's eye has a wrinkle
Neoguri's displayed an unusual "wrinkle" in satellite images taken the past three days--a sharp line radiating out from the northern eyewall, where an interesting "cliff" of clouds had formed. The cause of this "cloud cliff" is unknown, but it is not uncommon to see them in Western Pacific Super Typhoons. Similar eyewall "cloud cliffs" were observed in 2012 in Super Typhoon Bopha (visible on the south side of the eye in this blow-up image from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS Satellite Blog ), and in Super Typhoon Jelawat (visible on the north side of the eye.)


Figure 2. ESA astronaut Alexander Gerst tweeted this photo of Typhoon Neoguri's "cloud cliff" from the International Space Station at 7am EDT July 8, 2014. At the time, Neoguri was a Category 3 typhoon with 125 mph winds.


Figure 3. ESA astronaut Alexander Gerst tweeted this photo of Typhoon Neoguri's "cloud cliff" from the International Space Station at 5am EDT July 8, 2014. At the time, Neoguri was a Category 3 typhoon with 125 mph winds.


Figure 4. NASA astronaut Reid Wiseman tweeted this photo of Typhoon Neoguri's "cloud cliff" from the International Space Station at 5:55 pm EDT July 7. At the time, Neoguri was a Category 3 typhoon with 125 mph winds.


Figure 5. Infrared VIIRS image of Neoguri taken at 12:53 am EDT July 7, 2014, showing the "cloud cliff" along the northern eyewall. Image credit: Dan Lindsey, NOAA/CIRA.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

What a storm....
as we saw ourselves with sandy...wind is only one aspect......hurricane sandy showed us this quite well
Thanks Doc!
Thanks, Doc. Good thing it weakened a little, but those rains have always been a problem for Japan.

That is a strange little crack in Neoguri. Someone had just pointed it out in the previous blog.

Thanks Dr. Masters!
I have never liked bullies. I have never understood that part of our human nature where one has pleasure in deriding someone else; especially when that other person is a stranger. We don't know what special problems others have. We do not know if someone is in a wheelchair, or hearing impaired or learning disability or any other myriad of mental or psychological impairments. The only benefit is to simply be cruel to another. I wonder how many of us would want that visited upon our children?

Enjoy the map.



That NE quadrant in the satelite image looks intense.Hoping the impact on Japan isnt too bad for its residents in the affected area
Thank you Dr Masters. I really appreciate the time and effort you put into keeping us informed.
Quoting 6. Grothar:

I have never liked bullies. I have never understood that part of our human nature where one has pleasure in deriding someone else; especially when that other person is a stranger. We don't know what special problems others have. We do not know if someone is in a wheelchair, or hearing impaired or learning disability or any other myriad of mental or psychological impairments. The only benefit is to simply be cruel to another. I wonder how many of us would want that visited upon our children?

Enjoy the map.






I notice that there are those that are blatant, however the ones that scare me are those that use guile and nice sounding phrases but do exactly the same thing
Thanks, Dr. Masters.

I would be curious to hear theories on what causes that "cloud cliff".
11. jpsb
Thanks, hope the storm stays away from those broken nuke plants.
Fausto:

Thanks, hope the storm stays away from those broken nuke plants.


yep...pat used to post updates on their condition....haven't read anything about them lately....hope all is well and all stays well
Thanks, Dr. Masters.

Continuing the discussion I was reading about back on the previous blog, whether or not El Nino develops is really a moot point. 850-200mb wind shear is well above-average from the Gulf to the Caribbean to the tropical Atlantic. Velocity potential (200mb) has been generally positive for the past month, indicating upper-level convergence; this forces air to sink an dry out, reminiscent to what we saw last season. Sea surface temperatures are generally average to below average, except for off the East Coast, where anomalies are running up to 2C above average. The only positive factor I see is that African rainfall has been above average for the past two months, leading to more healthy tropical waves that have an increased chance relative to average to spawn a tropical cyclone somewhere in the Atlantic.




Tornado chance today in PA and Upstate NY.
Quoting 13. ricderr:

Thanks, hope the storm stays away from those broken nuke plants.


yep...pat used to post updates on their condition....haven't read anything about them lately....hope all is well and all stays well


Fukushima suffers leak


animated link below



Link
Very interesting phenomena Dr Masters. Thank you for sharing those.


Shear is higher out in front of Neoguri, which should be one of the main weakening factors.

Thanks, Dr. Masters.

Continuing the discussion I was reading about back on the previous blog, whether or not El Nino develops is really a moot point. 850-200mb wind shear is well above-average from the Gulf to the Caribbean to the tropical Atlantic. Velocity potential (200mb) has been generally positive for the past month, indicating upper-level convergence; this forces air to sink an dry out, reminiscent to what we saw last season. Sea surface temperatures are generally average to below average, except for off the East Coast, where anomalies are running up to 2C above average. The only positive factor I see is that African rainfall has been above average for the past two months, leading to more healthy tropical waves that have an increased chance relative to average to spawn a tropical cyclone somewhere in the Atlantic


i think as irregular to past el nino events as things have been.....an above average h-season...would fit right in :-)
Most of the arctic ice pack is in rounded chunks that are drifting and are being ground up along their edges.



Holy cow! Look at all of the moist air Neoguri is bathing in!
Fukushima suffers leak


thanx astro
Nagasaki a few days ago.

Arctic ice. MODIS satellite photo. North Pole is in upper left.

Quoting 1. Cat5WPB:

What a storm....
I thought hurricanes were just swirling thunderstorms to you.Oh the hypocrisy...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Thanks, Dr. Masters.

Continuing the discussion I was reading about back on the previous blog, whether or not El Nino develops is really a moot point. 850-200mb wind shear is well above-average from the Gulf to the Caribbean to the tropical Atlantic. Velocity potential (200mb) has been generally positive for the past month, indicating upper-level convergence; this forces air to sink an dry out, reminiscent to what we saw last season. Sea surface temperatures are generally average to below average, except for off the East Coast, where anomalies are running up to 2C above average. The only positive factor I see is that African rainfall has been above average for the past two months, leading to more healthy tropical waves that have an increased chance relative to average to spawn a tropical cyclone somewhere in the Atlantic.




Good points for sure. People who would like to see an active season are excited to pounce on signs of El Niño weakening or not occurring at all in the hopes that this will bring about an active season, but as you pointed out conditions are still as unfavorable (more so, in fact) as they were last year even without an El Niño.

Thus, even though I'm part of the group who wants to see a more active season I would rather see an El Niño occur in the hope that the occasionally mentioned hypothesis that an El Niño could release more moisture into the atmosphere and aid with the instability problems in time for next season comes to fruition. Sacrificial season I guess, it's so bad out there already we might as well make it worse to help next year.
Quoting 17. Astrometeor:



Fukushima suffers leak

Is it ironic or now expected that Neoguri should hit it on 7/11?
Quoting 18. Grothar:


animated link below



Link


Hi Gro-

Is that an offical 'blob' over the Bahamas?
Quoting 29. washingtonian115:

I thought hurricanes were just swirling thunderstorms to you.Oh the hypocrisy...


Source?
Beginning to really deteriorate fast. Looks like perhaps better news for Japan atm.

Dr. Greg Forbes
about a minute ago
It looks like there will be quite a few storms causing wind damage and maybe a few tornadoes today in PA and NY.
Quoting 34. GatorWX:

Beginning to really deteriorate fast. Looks like perhaps better news for Japan atm.




Neoguri was boring, pathetic and disappointing since that started be affected by the dry air.
Quoting 32. rmbjoe1954:



Hi Gro-

Is that an offical 'blob' over the Bahamas?


Nope, just a blip.
Quoting 36. pablosyn:



Neoguri was boring, pathetic and disappointing since that started be affected by the dry air.

Boring and disappointing are subjective, but how was Neoguri pathetic? It was a well-defined typhoon for several days (despite the dry air entrainment) and reached winds of 155 mph.
Thanks Dr. Fascinating (as Spock would say with the raised eyebrow) on that Typhoon "cliff" issue............
Quoting 36. pablosyn:



Neoguri was boring, pathetic and disappointing since that started be affected by the dry air.


Rainfall amounts exceeding 20 inches in some cases and wind gusts recorded as high as 118 mph is hardly pathetic for an indirect hit. Especially considering the weakening phase it went through, not sure what your point is.
Quoting Astrometeor:


Fukushima suffers leak

The plant is not leaking, or at least not leaking radiation. It's a 3 mm hole in a feedwater line that cools the spent fuel rods. This system is wholly outside the rods themselves. They are using sea water to cool the rods, and there have been a number of corrosion leaks. Fixing this is trivial, and RT is sensationalizing the problem. Be careful of news regarding Japan coming from RT (Russian Television). The Russians and Japanese do not have good relations, and RT has been used as a propaganda outlet to make Japan look as bad as possible. RT is funded directly by the Russian government and is not an unbiased source of news.
Quoting Skyepony:

Is it ironic or now expected that Neoguri should hit it on 7/11?

By the time what's left of Neoguri gets to the area 150 miles away from Fukushima it will be a non-event. Fukushima is quite far north and rarely suffers many problems from even a strong typhoon.
Thanks Jeff...
The setup is looking more severe on each report. TA, you better get your maps out.






Quoting 24. WIBadgerWeather:



Holy cow! Look at all of the moist air Neoguri is bathing in!


And that is why I explained the other day that dry air problems with tropical systems is only dry air on a relative scale. As you can see, even at the peak of dry air entrainment, Neoguri had deeper moisture throughout its cyclone that airmasses over the continental U.S. ever reach outside of tropical cyclones inland, well more than enough moisture for convection.

However, as I mentioned, it only takes a small layer of relatively lower RH to cause weakening of a tropical system and collapse of inner core convection even if the airmass is still very moist in terms of total water (PW).

This is because of the warm core, latent heat process by which tropical cyclones grow stronger. Any region of relatively lower RH, or less than saturation, will cause evaporative cooling in convection, which causes big problems for a tropical system.
Evaporative cooling is actually beneficial to severe thunderstorm events in mid latitudes, which is why a deep tropical airmass tends to supportive high coverage of heavy thunderstorms but little in the way of severe weather, unless of course, a tropical cyclone is present :)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Boring and disappointing are subjective, but how was Neoguri pathetic? It was a well-defined typhoon for several days (despite the dry air entrainment) and reached winds of 155 mph.

I agree. Even though Neoguri didn't perform as forecast, that's one of the things that makes it interesting. What caused it to weaken in the face of conditions that seemed to make it ideal not to weaken? It appears it's weakening even faster now. Something is different about Neoguri compared to other super typhoons. Once again, I'll make my pitch that the Japanese should have hurricane hunter aircraft. If there had been planes flying into the storm, we might have answers to these questions. As it is, we probably never will.
Quoting Grothar:
The setup is looking more severe on each report. TA, you better get your maps out.







The SPC has a moderate risk area defined from West Virginia to New York so it appears that things could really get going later today.

Quoting GatorWX:
Beginning to really deteriorate fast. Looks like perhaps better news for Japan atm.


It will be interesting to see what the next update brings. It appears be a cat 1 at this point and it's headed into cooler water and higher wind shear. I suspect it will be kept at cat 2 for continuity and downgraded to cat 1 after the that.
Quoting 44. Grothar:

The setup is looking more severe on each report. TA, you better get your maps out.







Gonna start forming soon, be ready.
Looking at the pressure forecast from the ECMWF, I would not be surprised at all if no more tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic this month.
According to this the action in the Tropical Atlantic starts at the end of the month. Till then, at ease wishcasters and doomsayers.




On the severe weather issue for Conus, here the the relative position of the Conus Jet today; whole lot of forcing going on in the upper Mid-West moving East:


This is a HUGE watch box.



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 403
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
105 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PANHANDLE OF MARYLAND
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK
EASTERN OHIO
PENNSYLVANIA
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA INCLUDING PANHANDLES
LAKE ERIE
LAKE ONTARIO

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 105 PM UNTIL
800 PM EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE


THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 140
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF ELKINS WEST VIRGINIA TO 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF
SYRACUSE NEW YORK. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
Quoting 14. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Thanks, Dr. Masters.

Continuing the discussion I was reading about back on the previous blog, whether or not El Nino develops is really a moot point. 850-200mb wind shear is well above-average from the Gulf to the Caribbean to the tropical Atlantic. Velocity potential (200mb) has been generally positive for the past month, indicating upper-level convergence; this forces air to sink an dry out, reminiscent to what we saw last season. Sea surface temperatures are generally average to below average, except for off the East Coast, where anomalies are running up to 2C above average. The only positive factor I see is that African rainfall has been above average for the past two months, leading to more healthy tropical waves that have an increased chance relative to average to spawn a tropical cyclone somewhere in the Atlantic.





Its not a moot point to me or should be to anyone else because once again it shows the flaws in our technology when it comes to weather models if this El Nino doesn't develop..Govt cuts in the meterological world is creating more unnecessary alarm to the public especially when the models were showing a historical nino and as some people wrote tens of thousands of deaths will follow..If the El nino fails to materialize as it did in 2012 then hopefully a good thing out of this is that our Govt will allocate more money and resources in research in weather technology..
Quoting 53. Astrometeor:

This is a HUGE watch box.



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 403
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
105 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PANHANDLE OF MARYLAND
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK
EASTERN OHIO
PENNSYLVANIA
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA INCLUDING PANHANDLES
LAKE ERIE
LAKE ONTARIO

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 105 PM UNTIL
800 PM EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE


THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 140
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF ELKINS WEST VIRGINIA TO 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF
SYRACUSE NEW YORK. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
Dynamics are there and the storms are moving at a quick pace.
let's look at some 5 day models...but before i post them...a word from my lawyer...



This page presents operational model fields that are being used in a study examining their
forecast ability for tropical cyclogenesis in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S.,
please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center


Quoting GatorWX:
Beginning to really deteriorate fast. Looks like perhaps better news for Japan atm.

I'm actually surprised that this didn't happen yesterday when all the deep convection in the eyewall disappeared.
cmc doesn't even show many ripples.....



I'm not only a client..
ecmwf is similar

gfs agrees too

gfs agrees too...

and the navgem says.....expect more talk about climate change

Quoting 46. sar2401:


What caused it to weaken in the face of conditions that seemed to make it ideal not to weaken?


It went through an eyewall replacement cycle. Storms normally weaken as they go through it, but Neoguri weakened more so than others due to some dry air in the circulation as it was undergoing the ERC. Once it finished the ERC it blew up again, despite people writing it off and thinking it was finished.

Also, current weakening is mainly due to cooler waters with less heat to sustain the storm:




Quoting Astrometeor:
This is a HUGE watch box.



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 403
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
105 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014


It pretty much covers the moderate risk area. I suppose that, once you've upgraded to moderate risk, a watch would have to follow. It will be interesting to see if these storms actually develop or if we get yet another bust.
Quoting 54. ncstorm:



Its not a moot point to me or should be to anyone else because once again it shows the flaws in our technology when it comes to weather models if this El Nino doesn't develop..Govt cuts in the meterological world is creating more unnecessary alarm to the public especially when the models were showing a historical nino and as some people wrote tens of thousands of deaths will follow..If the El nino fails to materialize as it did in 2012 then hopefully a good thing out of this is that our Govt will allocate more money and resources in research in weather technology..


What is most bothersome is the extended time of no major hurricane landfalls in the US.
well the Almanac got Arthur right..maybe it can get the next one right?

July 2014
8th-11th. Hot, dry.
12th-15th. Heavy rains Eastern Gulf states.
16th-19th. Warm, humid.
20th-23rd. Hurricane threat Southeast coast, otherwise, scattered strong thunderstorms from Carolinas to Northern Florida.
24th-27th. Hot with frequent thunderstorms along Gulf Coast.
28th-31st. Continued hot.
Quoting Envoirment:


It went through an eyewall replacement cycle. Storms normally weaken as they go through it, but Neoguri weakened more so than others due to some dry air in the circulation as it was undergoing the ERC. Once it finished the ERC it blew up again, despite people writing it off and thinking it was finished.

Also, current weakening is mainly due to cooler waters with less heat to sustain the storm:





It recovered some but never got to cat 5 again. The reports coming out of Okinawa show that Neoguri was not much more than a high end TS in terms of its effect on land. This was more than just an ERC. It was more than just dry air.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO:

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

$$
FORECASTER SULLIVAN
Quoting 50. CybrTeddy:

Looking at the pressure forecast from the ECMWF, I would not be surprised at all if no more tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic this month.


Link, Please. (Sorry Teddy, I couldn't help it)
The caps came back..
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Looking at the pressure forecast from the ECMWF, I would not be surprised at all if no more tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic this month.

Given the appearance of convection in the ICTZ, the fact that A-B high has now extended all the way into the Gulf and western Caribbean, and the continuing SAL impulses coming off Africa, conditions in the Atlantic and Caribbean are about as hostile as I've ever seen them. While a storm forming isn't impossible, it would sure be a surprise.
Quoting Grothar:


Link, Please. (Sorry Teddy, I couldn't help it)


12z ECMWF MSLP forecast at 240 hours, tons of oranges.
Govt cuts in the meterological world is creating more unnecessary alarm to the public especially when the models were showing a historical nino

i agree that govt cuts hurt....however the models have done well...except for when they were expected to not do well which is the spring barrier....but yes...there was a lot of hype and fear mongering.....even apart from the blogs.....and i think one major reason for this was from the pro climate change crowd as they saw this as a very good chance to quiet the denialists over the 'earth temps have been steady for the last 15 years" claims...the bigger the el nino....the bigger the chances for a record breaking global temps
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO:

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

$$
FORECASTER SULLIVAN
What is the 50 year average for hurricane activity during the time and location indicated? Does anybody have the records handy?

Quoting 66. ncstorm:

well the Almanac got Arthur right..maybe it can get the next one right?

July 2014
8th-11th. Hot, dry.
12th-15th. Heavy rains Eastern Gulf states.
16th-19th. Warm, humid.
20th-23rd. Hurricane threat Southeast coast, otherwise, scattered strong thunderstorms from Carolinas to Northern Florida.
24th-27th. Hot with frequent thunderstorms along Gulf Coast.
28th-31st. Continued hot.
Quoting 72. CybrTeddy:



12z ECMWF MSLP forecast at 240 hours, tons of oranges.



I haven't seen anything like that in years.
Now this is some bad news about Neoguri....

Link
What is the 50 year average for hurricane activity during the time and location indicated? Does anybody have the records handy? - mobilesmith


Quoting mobilesmith:
What is the 50 year average for hurricane activity during the time and location indicated? Does anybody have the records handy?


I don't have that handy but what does this even mean -

20th-23rd. Hurricane threat Southeast coast, otherwise, scattered strong thunderstorms from Carolinas to Northern Florida

What exactly is a hurricane threat? Is that like what we see so often here, where some ULL is being thought of as a threat? An AOI? TD? That's why the Almanac can claim success. Anything that even looks like a low anywhere in the Atlantic or Gulf can be claimed to be a threat. If not, we have scattered thunderstorms from Florida to the Carolinas. Wow, they really went out on a limb for that one. I don't understand how people who claim they are interested in the science of weather can take the Almanac seriously.
Climate 175. As I expected.

Quoting 78. sar2401:

Now this is some bad news about Neoguri....

Link


I think those are the ones my son likes.
sar2401

Exactly my point.
Ok...


Quoting sar2401:

It recovered some but never got to cat 5 again. The reports coming out of Okinawa show that Neoguri was not much more than a high end TS in terms of its effect on land. This was more than just an ERC. It was more than just dry air.
That's what I've been saying. TA13 suggested yesterday that it could be partially because the circulation was too large, which is possible, but I'm not sure if that fully explains it either.
Quoting 67. sar2401:


It recovered some but never got to cat 5 again. The reports coming out of Okinawa show that Neoguri was not much more than a high end TS in terms of its effect on land. This was more than just an ERC. It was more than just dry air.


That's because the intensity forecasts didn't account for an ERC, as you can't predict those ahead of time. If it hadn't undergone an ERC, it would've maintained a lot more strength. Also, when it did finish the ERC and was a category 3, it didn't make landfall anywhere and had a smaller windfield of strong winds. So it's no surprise that the islands mainly got strong tropical storm winds, as it had a windfield of 64kts winds of around 55 NM(~63 miles) from the center and it was 68 miles from Kumejima at its closest pass to land when it restrengthened.
Quoting CaribBoy:
Ok...



El Nino is on the back burner again, for now.
Pardon my ignorance, but what exactly does this tell someone who knows things? If it is as appears, why the thermal anomaly for only a short period?


Quoting 83. CaribBoy:

Ok...


Quoting mobilesmith:
Climate 175. As I expected.



I think those are the ones my son likes.

I ate a ton of these on my visits to Korea and used to buy them at Korean markets when I lived in California. Luckily, I guess, there aren't any Korean food markets in SE AL. Those things are really addictive if you like spicy Korean food. Now they'll probably kill me, but they do really taste good. OK, maybe smoking will kill me first, but my heirs can blame it on a Korean raccoon dog. :-)
Quoting 87. mobilesmith:

Pardon my ignorance, but what exactly does this tell someone who knows things? If it is as appears, why the thermal anomaly for only a short period?



Check your wundermail mobilesmith.
Quoting mobilesmith:
sar2401

Exactly my point.

That's what I assumed. I really don't understand why flipping a coin and then writing a weasel word forecast isn't worth as much as whatever the Almanac costs now.
Neoguri was honestly pretty disappointing. but thats better for Japan, and they can't all be winners, even in the West Pacific
If you are in Mobile, try the Asian Market on Azalea between Pleasant Valley the Tax Commissioner.

Quoting 88. sar2401:


I ate a ton of these on my visits to Korea and used to buy them at Korean markets when I lived in California. Luckily, I guess, there aren't any Korean food markets in SE AL. Those things are really addictive if you like spicy Korean food. Now they'll probably kill me, but they do really taste good. OK, maybe smoking will kill me first, but my heirs can blame it on a Korean raccoon dog. :-)
Are you joking?
Quoting 91. nwobilderburg:

Neoguri was honestly pretty disappointing. but thats better for Japan, and they can't all be winners, even in the West Pacific
Thanks, Climate175.
Quoting 87. mobilesmith:

Pardon my ignorance, but what exactly does this tell someone who knows things? If it is as appears, why the thermal anomaly for only a short period?





The upward 'blip' coincided with the MJO passing through.
Quoting 84. silas:


That's what I've been saying. TA13 suggested yesterday that it could be partially because the circulation was too large, which is possible, but I'm not sure if that fully explains it either.



The eye was well to the west of Okinawa.
Quoting 83. CaribBoy:
Ok...



Stronger than normal tradewinds have returned to the Pacific.



Quoting Envoirment:


That's because the intensity forecasts didn't account for an ERC, as you can't predict those ahead of time. If it hadn't undergone an ERC, it would've maintained a lot more strength. Also, when it did finish the ERC and was a category 3, it didn't make landfall anywhere and had a smaller windfield of strong winds. So it's no surprise that the islands mainly got strong tropical storm winds, as it had a windfield of 64kts winds of around 55 NM(~63 miles) from the center and it was 68 miles from Kumejima - the closest pass it had done when it restrengthened.

I agree the ERC didn't help, but Neoguri had been looking sick before it began. It's also no surprise to me that Okinawa didn't get hit with 100 mph winds. Just like with Arthur, you could look at the wind fields, the lopsided area that had the strongest winds, and the distance the center would be from land, and tell that TS winds were likely to be the highest general winds that would be seen. Given that, why did we have some people here as well as the news media saying this would be the most catastrophic typhoon in decades, at least in terms of what it would do to Okinawa? It's not over yet, since the heavy rains that will fall on the southern areas of Japan will still likely cause extensive flooding, so I'm not saying that Neoguri isn't a significant storm, but it's certainly not the worst in decades.
Severe t'storm watch W Pa, W Md, N W VA til 8p. Derecho type event *poss* N of Mason Dixon line - Capital Weather Gang. SAY WHAT NOW?!
Pardon my ignorance, but what exactly does this tell someone who knows things? If it is as appears, why the thermal anomaly for only a short period?

the greater our knowledge increases the greater our ignorance unfolds...jfk

that's the anomaly model for the ENSO 3.4 region....as an easy explanation....where there is a three month value above 0.5 c....it typically means we're in an el nino event......when it is -0.5c or below...we're typically in a la nina event
ricderr,

the greater our knowledge increases the greater our ignorance unfolds...jfk

In that case, I'm not unfolding my ignorance as fast as I ought.
Quoting Gearsts:
Are you joking?

That's what it looked like yesterday. This is what it looks like now -



Pretty impressive rapid weakening...
Quoting 73. ricderr:

Govt cuts in the meterological world is creating more unnecessary alarm to the public especially when the models were showing a historical nino

i agree that govt cuts hurt....however the models have done well...except for when they were expected to not do well which is the spring barrier....but yes...there was a lot of hype and fear mongering.....even apart from the blogs.....and i think one major reason for this was from the pro climate change crowd as they saw this as a very good chance to quiet the denialists over the 'earth temps have been steady for the last 15 years" claims...the bigger the el nino....the bigger the chances for a record breaking global temps


I agree..
believe me the almanac has gotten more forecasts right than some on here who claim to be non professionals but always offering their "forecasts"..
Woke up to a broken hard drive this AM :(
Ran down to Bestbuy and got a new Seagate 1 terrabyte for only $69... reinstalling everything now... not what I had planned for this fine day in Middle TN!!
Quoting 105. JNCali:

Woke up to a broken hard drive this AM :(
Ran down to Bestbuy and got a new Seagate 1 terrabyte for only $69... reinstalling everything now... not what I had planned for this fine day in Middle TN!!
LOL signed in with my old handle.. too funny..
Quoting yonzabam:


The eye was well to the west of Okinawa.

That's why there was less damage on Okinawa than first feared but it doesn't explain the overall weakening of the storm. It was predicted it would intensify after the ERC was complete. It not only hasn't intensified, it appears to be weakening even further. Most typhoons weaken as they approach the main islands in Japan but Neoguri started weakening considerably further out.
Quoting 98. sar2401:


Given that, why did we have some people here as well as the news media saying this would be the most catastrophic typhoon in decades, at least in terms of what it would do to Okinawa? It's not over yet, since the heavy rains that will fall on the southern areas of Japan will still likely cause extensive flooding, so I'm not saying that Neoguri isn't a significant storm, but it's certainly not the worst in decades.


Mainly because of how agressive the models, in particular the Euro, were with it. At one point the Euro had it down to 898 mb as it passed Okinawa not to mention the GFS had a very powerful and huge system too. Those busted luckily, but as you said there will still be a lot of flooding.
The latest update by CPC has the word uncertainty in terms of the MJO signal that is weak to propagate eastward in the nest two weeks.Tropical development is favored in WPAC and EPAC on week 1 and at EPAC on week 2.The Atlantic stays quiet.



Dynamical model MJO index forecasts are consistent with a rapid propagation of this signal eastward over the Maritime Continent during the upcoming week, likely due to influence from the Kelvin Wave. Beyond this period, however, the GFS weakens the MJO signal while the CFS, UKMET, and ECMWF models continue a slower eastward propagation over the western Pacific. There is uncertainty whether the enhanced convection over the Maritime Continent associated with the interactions between a more transient Kelvin Wave and the ERW will evolve into a more robust subseasonal signal on the MJO time scale. Due to the consensus among numerous dynamical models, however, impacts of MJO propagation from the Maritime Continent to the West Pacific were considered for this outlook.



CPC Global Tropics Hazards forecast
Neoguri was a beautiful beast to start. Got immense to the extent it was one of the largest typhoons of that strength ever seen. While the eye was immense also, maybe the pull was just too much on it. The engine was impressive but the work was just too much.
Quoting JNCali:
LOL signed in with my old handle.. too funny..

I thought something looked different. :-) What a bargain for hard drives now. I can remember the day when 10 MB hard drives were huge. I just got a 128 GB memory stick for $19.95. If computer companies ran the world, gas would be about 50 cents a gallon.
Does the lower than average rainfall in Africa mean fewer or less vigorous waves?

Quoting 109. Tropicsweatherpr:

The latest update by CPC has the word uncertainty in terms of the MJO signal that is weak to propagate eastward in the nest two weeks.Tropical development is favored in WPAC and EPAC on week 1 and at EPAC on week 2.The Atlantic stays quiet.



Dynamical model MJO index forecasts are consistent with a rapid propagation of this signal eastward over the Maritime Continent during the upcoming week, likely due to influence from the Kelvin Wave. Beyond this period, however, the GFS weakens the MJO signal while the CFS, UKMET, and ECMWF models continue a slower eastward propagation over the western Pacific. There is uncertainty whether the enhanced convection over the Maritime Continent associated with the interactions between a more transient Kelvin Wave and the ERW will evolve into a more robust subseasonal signal on the MJO time scale. Due to the consensus among numerous dynamical models, however, impacts of MJO propagation from the Maritime Continent to the West Pacific were considered for this outlook.



CPC Global Tropics Hazards forecast
First eye wall was huge and was pulling so much, second after ERC perhaps just not big enough or strong enough to replace the first one to pull that ridiculously far reaching convection and hence it continued to convection wise fail and weaken.
Quoting 110. DeepSeaRising:

Neoguri was a beautiful beast to start. Got immense to the extent it was one of the largest typhoons of that strength ever seen. While the eye was immense also, maybe the pull was just too much on it. The engine was impressive but the work was just too much.


Look up Super Typhoon Tip. It was in a category all its own. Both the largest (by far) and strongest tropical cyclone on record. Tropical storm force wind diameter was 1,380 miles!
Quoting 112. mobilesmith:

Does the lower than average rainfall in Africa mean fewer or less vigorous waves?




Average rainfall in the Sahel means some strong waves can emerge Africa.Above average would be much better as our friend Tx13 said earlier.
Loxahatchee, Florida today!



Quoting mobilesmith:
Does the lower than average rainfall in Africa mean fewer or less vigorous waves?


In general, less rain in Saharan Africa leads to more dry ground, which is the breeding ground for the Saharan Dust Layer (SAL). The more SAL, the harder it is for a low to form and existing lows to intensify. We don't really understand a lot about SAL, why it's sometimes worse or better, and the exact effect on tropical low formation. The rainfall in the Sahara was actually higher than normal last year but there was still a lot of SAL around for almost the entire hurricane season.
Water temp drops down quite a bit as you get closer to main land Japan.
Quoting 104. ncstorm:

believe me the almanac has gotten more forecasts right than some on here who claim to be non professionals but always offering their "forecasts"..
They got today's correct.
Ya, Tip's the trendsetter and was able to do things we've never seen before, no doubt about that. It didn't suffer from NW convection issues that led to Neoguri weakening. Just think when the ERC happened yesterday and convection was good again around the eye wall it started to start pulling back in those far outer bands of convection and it was just too much. Just like an engine that is overworked, when this happened the eye failed and rapidly weakened the system. Just an opinion, and glad it happened.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Loxahatchee, Florida today!




Eufuala, Alabama today! 98 degrees...
Farmers Almanac nailed our epic winter. NWS was way off and had almost the opposite as happened forecast.
...Significant weather advisory for northeastern inland Broward County...north central Metro Broward County...west central Metro Palm Beach County and southeastern inland Palm Beach County...

* until 330 PM EDT

* at 239 PM EDT...National Weather Service meteorologists detected a line of strong thunderstorms along a line extending from Loxahatchee Groves to 14 miles west of Loxahatchee NWR...and moving northeast at 10 mph.

The primary impacts will be frequent to excessive lightning and gusty winds of 45 to 55 mph. Lightning is the number one weather related killer in Florida. Trees and open shelters offer no protection. These winds can down small tree limbs and branches...and blow around unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the storm passes.

* The storm will affect... Wellington...Greenacres...Royal Palm Beach...Parkland...Loxahatchee Groves...Loxahatchee NWR...lion country safari park and Florida Gardens.
Here a nice water temperature map for Japan. You can zoom in and click on dozens of locations across Japan.

http://www.seatemperature.org/asia/japan/
Quoting Envoirment:


Mainly because of how agressive the models, in particular the Euro, were with it. At one point the Euro had it down to 898 mb as it passed Okinawa not to mention the GFS had a very powerful and huge system too. Those busted luckily, but as you said there will still be a lot of flooding.

Most of the headlines out there are still like this one -

Enormous super typhoon Neoguri lashing Okinawa and targeting Japan

Very few non-weather sites even mention that Neoguri has weakened. I guess "Super Typhoon" just generates more clicks.
JULY 2014
8th-11th. Showers, thunderstorms rapidly shift east into New England.
New invest in WPAC 92W.Will it be the next Typhoon?



SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
310 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

FLZ054-082000-
INDIAN RIVER-
310 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH OVER EASTERN INDIAN RIVER COUNTY...

* UNTIL 400 PM EDT.

AT 308 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER VERO LAKE
ESTATES...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
INCLUDE POINTE WEST...VERO BEACH AND VERO BEACH SOUTH.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND...AND SNAP TREE LIMBS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL TEMPORARILY
REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.
Quoting DeepSeaRising:
Farmers Almanac nailed our epic winter. NWS was way off and had almost the opposite as happened forecast.

Yes, it did, at least in part. This article has a good summary about the Almanac and weather forecast accuracy.
I guess the strong MJO at the end of June that was going to lock in an el nino never happened. Here is the summary from Madden-Julian Oscillation: Recent Evolution, Current
Status and Predictions
by the CPC. Quote:

- The MJO weakened during the past week as other modes of tropical subseasonal
variability strongly influenced the pattern.

- Several dynamical model solutions indicate a strengthening MJO signal during the
upcoming week, with the enhanced phase propagating over the Maritime Continent
to the far western Pacific.

- Dynamical model MJO forecasts diverge considerably during Week-2, with some
models weakening the signal and others maintaining amplitude over the West Pacific.

- Based on recent observations and the dynamical guidance, there is considerable
uncertainty regarding the evolution of the MJO during the next two weeks.

- The MJO may contribute to enhanced convection over parts of the Maritime
Continent during the upcoming week.
Quoting 129. sar2401:


Yes, it did, at least in part. This article has a good summary about the Almanac and weather forecast accuracy.


My article in my school newspaper also nailed the cold winter, wheres my cookie?
Quoting 131. VAbeachhurricanes:



My article in my school newspaper also nailed the cold winter, wheres my cookie?


Pfft. I said it would be cold this winter AND hot this summer. Nailed it.
Hadn't been hot yet. Just been summer.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


My article in my school newspaper also nailed the cold winter, wheres my cookie?

I'm sorry, you don't get a cookie. :-)

Well, you can certainly tell things have calmed down on the weather front. Neoguri is no longer "super", nothing happening in the Atlantic, the Caribbean is quiet as a mouse, Fausto is headed for certain death in the eastern Pacific, and there's not even a decent blob to get excited about anywhere. The surest sign is the blog is down from 10 posts a minute a couple of days ago to about 10 posts an hour. At least I can actually post without my computer locking up now.
Afternoon thunder boomers here
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #47A
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON NEOGURI (T1408)
4:00 AM JST July 9 2014
=============================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In East China Sea

At 19:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Neoguri (960 hPa) located at 29.0N 125.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots.. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 12 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==============
170 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
90 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Gale Force Winds
==============
375 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
240 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
Quoting 134. sar2401:


I'm sorry, you don't get a cookie. :-)

Well, you can certainly tell things have calmed down on the weather front. Neoguri is no longer "super", nothing happening in the Atlantic, the Caribbean is quiet as a mouse, Fausto is headed for certain death in the eastern Pacific, and there's not even a decent blob to get excited about anywhere. The surest sign is the blog is down from 10 posts a minute a couple of days ago to about 10 posts an hour. At least I can actually post without my computer locking up now.



Well, Arctic ice area was declining at a fast pace recently, and looked like it was going to exceed the record 2012 early July area, but it's slowed the past few days.

The California drought looks like its going to be a major environmental news story. I've copied this from Dr. Christopher Burt's blog, as I think it deserves a wider audience. It's sobering stuff.

Some trees are changing color here in the DMV area.It could be because of other variables..but it's interesting.Last year they change color early too.We all know how this winter played out...
Quoting 127. Tropicsweatherpr:

New invest in WPAC 92W.Will it be the next Typhoon?








CMC suggests "Rammasun"
There is a 700mb circulation, perhaps trying to develop in the central to northern Bahama Islands. There is weak to moderate convection present currently. This is the next area for potential development as wind shear has died down to around 5-10 knots from the southwest. It is likely that this system will take another three days before any potential development is possible.

Super Typhoon Neoguri was a 155mph hurricane which brought high winds and heavy rainfall to the islands of Japan. While forecast models brought the potential typhoon to extraordinary levels, the Super Typhoon never reached the ultimate level. Not many hurricanes can ever call themselves among the ultimate levels, but in terms of pressure, the Atlantic Ocean has seen roughly 5 storms have ever reached the Holy Grail for hurricanes. Anything below 900mb is considered the Holy Grail of a hurricane, reaching the ultimate limits of our atmosphere is something that every extreme weather enthusiast and meteorologist would love to see just for the purity of the event itself. Neoguri was a sight to behold, but it never reached the Holy Grail of Typhoons and Hurricanes.
Quoting 140. washingtonian115:

Some trees are changing color here in the DMV area.It could be because of other variables..but it's interesting.Last year they change color early too.We all know how this winter played out...
That't interesting because the same is happening here, i noticed that today.
I'll take whatever Germany used before this World Cup match...

Anyways, it sort of looks like Fausto may be becoming absorbed back into the ITCZ, which would mean that my forecast, Kori's forecast, and the NHC's forecast would all be too high. The same thing happened to Tropical Storm Alvin last year. We'll see what NHC has to say at 21z.
Quoting 140. washingtonian115:

Some trees are changing color here in the DMV area.It could be because of other variables..but it's interesting.Last year they change color early too.We all know how this winter played out...
Are the colors hint of yellow and orange?
seems like the northern bahamas is a developmental area this july
When I was a kid in the Boston area we had some serious drought years and often some of the trees would turn way early. Are there water shortages in your areas?

Quoting 143. Climate175:

That't interesting because the same is happening here, i noticed that today.
Quoting 144. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'll take whatever Germany used before this World Cup match...

Anyways, it sort of looks like Fausto may be becoming absorbed back into the ITCZ, which would mean that my forecast, Kori's forecast, and the NHC's forecast would all be too high. The same thing happened to Tropical Storm Alvin last year. We'll see what NHC has to say at 21z.


Germany haven't played above themselves. Brazil have been absolutely shocking. I'm convinced Argentina threw their losing match in the last World Cup, when Germany beat them 4-0 in the quarter final. Hard to believe Brazil would do that in their home World Cup, but you never know. 5-0 down after 30 minutes is quite incredible.
Quoting 143. Climate175:

That't interesting because the same is happening here, i noticed that today.
Forshadowing? .Only time will tell...
Quoting 149. washingtonian115:

Forshadowing? .Only time will tell...
Well winter is paying up, we get three straight snowless winters and we get three straight snowy winters to get pay back.
The Northern Bahamas seems like a potential breeding ground for tropical cyclones this season. Homegrown development seems more likely given the volatile El Nino forecast, though current observations in the 3.4 Nino region suggests that a neutral phase is more likely during the summer months. However this is all speculation, but there is a circulation attempting to develop just northeast of the Bahamas, its seen in the cirrus canopy which means it must mid level, roughly 700mb is where the CIMSS tropical setup shows best vorticity.
There is currently no spin to the low level cloud field over the Bahamas and just to the northeast of the islands, which purely means that the convection has not sustained enough of itself to get the circulation to develop beyond the mid levels which is just beginning to show signs of rotation horizontally.
Quoting 147. mobilesmith:

When I was a kid in the Boston area we had some serious drought years and often some of the trees would turn way early. Are there water shortages in your areas?


No.We're stil above average in terms of rain even though it hasn't been raining as often.But it was like this too last year and in 2009.The following winters were cold and snowy.We'll see though.
The most accurate forecast I ever heard was sung by the King Singers.

"Alternating periods of light and dark interspersed with periods of precipitation."
Quoting 132. Naga5000:



Pfft. I said it would be cold this winter AND hot this summer. Nailed it.
Plagiarism......You stole that from J.B.s blog..:)
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #47A
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON NEOGURI (T1408)
4:00 AM JST July 9 2014
=============================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In East China Sea

At 19:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Neoguri (960 hPa) located at 29.0N 125.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots.. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 12 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==============
170 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
90 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Gale Force Winds
==============
375 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
240 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Lest people get confused, the Japanese have their own hurricane classification conventions using 10 minute sustained winds compared to the NHC's version of 1 minute sustained winds. It's hard to compare 70 knots (80 mph) directly because of this difference, but Neoguri's sustained 1 minute winds are probably near 90 mph, making Neoguri a category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Maybe someday we can all agree on one standard...
Quoting Climate175:
That't interesting because the same is happening here, i noticed that today.


I suspect it's just a response to short term dryness in many areas here. A lot of areas have missed thunderstorm clusters in the past three weeks and drying conditions have been very good
so grass is browning out and trees are showing some stress. Occasional dry periods sufficient to brown grass and slightly stress trees are normal here most summers.

Even the area around my home which flooded four weeks ago is now quite dry.
Lots of action over interior South Florida. S.W. coast is dry, but some storms are trying to back build into the area.
Quoting mobilesmith:
My father, who was a real research meteorologist, used to look for periodicity in weather/climatic events. He was a great believer that patterns, some extremely obscure, would repeat. He was interested in the patterns that The Farmers Almanac seemed to use, but was somewhat skeptical of their sources.


I think periodicity has some merit if we could just figure out what the return period is. We use it to predict sunspots and, until the recent supposed solar maxima, which hasn't happened, it's been accurate since 1870. There has been a theoretical return period for El Nino but that seems to have blown up now. There's even a predicted return period for unusually widespread displays of wildflowers in the desert (7 years) which has also worked out pretty well until recently. Given our limited accurate record of weather, most of what we guess about when it comes to periodicity is from old-timer's memory about what their granddaddy and great-granddaddy told them. Seems like a lot of our assumed periodicity isn't working too well lately. Of course, if the OFA would share their methods of weather prediction, it could at least be tested, something I know they'd like to see happen.









BWAHAHAhaha...just kidding. :-)
Quoting 157. georgevandenberghe:



I suspect it's just a response to short term dryness in many areas here. A lot of areas have missed thunderstorm clusters in the past three weeks and drying conditions have been very good
so grass is browning out and trees are showing some stress. Occasional dry periods sufficient to brown grass and slightly stress trees are normal here most summers.

Even the area around my home which flooded four weeks ago is now quite dry.
Some good storms are coming now. So no watering the plants!
Quoting 156. sar2401:


Lest people get confused, the Japanese have their own hurricane classification conventions using 10 minute sustained winds compared to the NHC's version of 1 minute sustained winds. It's hard to compare 70 knots (80 mph) directly because of this difference, but Neoguri's sustained 1 minute winds are probably near 90 mph, making Neoguri a category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Maybe someday we can all agree on one standard...

80kt (90 mph) is still Category 1. Category 2 begins at 85kt (100 mph).
I've been watching a storm chaser (Monsoon Tracker)that I haven't seen before.
He's on the severe storms in Arizona.
It's cool to just watch the desert environment and topography.
Don't get to see storm chasing in the desert too often.
Most of you have heard of Mark at Hurricane Track before I'm sure. He really deserves some applause for his work during Arthur.

I'll let y'all decide...





7-0
Let's see ...Strong AB High oriented NE-SW. Moderate vertical wind shear and Dry SAL in place. Is it still 2013?
Lowest value in over 3 months for Nino 3.4

PA and NY getting hammered

What setting is your radar on Grothar? Mine doesn't show anything like that.


171. JRRP
7-1 looks like a baseball game
Quoting 155. hydrus:

Plagiarism......You stole that from J.B.s blog..:)


"I came, I saw, I conquered." -Astrometeor
Wow! Scary black clouds here in Sebring. Radar shows no rotations, but these look like potential tornado clouds....Lightning has caused temporary power loss, had to reboot computer at work twice....
Quoting Grothar:
I have never liked bullies. I have never understood that part of our human nature where one has pleasure in deriding someone else; especially when that other person is a stranger. We don't know what special problems others have. We do not know if someone is in a wheelchair, or hearing impaired or learning disability or any other myriad of mental or psychological impairments. The only benefit is to simply be cruel to another. I wonder how many of us would want that visited upon our children?

Enjoy the map. <


A video I made 4 years ago.

Quoting 169. Grothar:

PA and NY getting hammered


As well as Western MD and Northern VA. Looks a bit like a derecho.
Quoting Randrewl:
Most of you have heard of Mark at Hurricane Track before I'm sure. He really deserves some applause for his work during Arthur.

I'll let y'all decide...






He did some nice work for sure. As he wrote, the price of technology has come down to the point that drones and drifting cameras are well in the range of what many people can afford. I'm kind of surprised he wouldn't equip the drifting camera with some kind of beacon light before the storm but I guess he'll remedy that. I would really like to try out his app but limiting it to the Apple platform leaves me out.
Quoting 172. Astrometeor:



"I came, I saw, I conquered." -Astrometeor
HMM!
Quoting Grothar:
PA and NY getting hammered



I'm starting to take notice of this too in the DC metro. Fast motion suggests a bowing line driven by its own outflow and
a strong straight line wind threat. I'm not going to toss out the D word yet though this feature is driven by the same mechanisims
Quoting DonnieBwkGA:


A video I made 4 years ago.


Good message if those who need it would only listen...
Quoting georgevandenberghe:


I'm starting to take notice of this too in the DC metro. Fast motion suggests a bowing line driven by its own outflow and
a strong straight line wind threat. I'm not going to toss out the D word yet though this feature is driven by the same mechanisims

Looks like DC will be right on the south edge of the strong storms. So far, it's been all straight line winds.
Quoting sar2401:

He did some nice work for sure. As he wrote, the price of technology has come down to the point that drones and drifting cameras are well in the range of what many people can afford. I'm kind of surprised he wouldn't equip the drifting camera with some kind of beacon light before the storm but I guess he'll remedy that. I would really like to try out his app but limiting it to the Apple platform leaves me out.



Well, a drift camera is eventually going to be buried in beach sand anyway...but a beacon would be great also. Incredible part of that story is that Cantore actually did something to help!

Quoting 177. Climate175:

HMM!


I should've said German National Team, not my name, lol.
Quoting congaline:
Wow! Scary black clouds here in Sebring. Radar shows no rotations, but these look like potential tornado clouds....Lightning has caused temporary power loss, had to reboot computer at work twice....

Some strong storms but not even any severe thunderstorm warnings out in your area, so the probability of a tornado is pretty low.
Quoting Randrewl:



Well, a drift camera is eventually going to be buried in beach sand anyway...but a beacon would be great also. Incredible part of that story is that Cantore actually did something to help!


Not if you can see it before it gets buried. :-)

That was kind of interesting about Cantore. I wonder why he was involved?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

80kt (90 mph) is still Category 1. Category 2 begins at 85kt (100 mph).

Not according the JMA it isn't -

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In East China Sea

At 19:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Neoguri (960 hPa) located at 29.0N 125.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots.. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 12 knots.


Like I said, the Japanese seem to have a strange classification system.
Quoting sar2401:

Not if you can see it before it gets buried. :-)

That was kind of interesting about Cantore. I wonder why he was involved?


The drift camera had a GPS beacon tracking it to its last marker so it was no problem for Cantore to find if he was asked to.

Mark has been at this stuff since the early 200's so I'm sure he and Cantore can communicate and help each other.


I talked to Jim Cantore and asked him to go look for the DSC. He was stuck in Waves and could not leave until Saturday afternoon. We sent him a map showing where the last signal was received and sure enough, Saturday morning, he found it right where it was supposed to be %u2013 covered in mud and gook!
If you don't bother to read the information you can't possibly understand what it says!

Quoting 185. sar2401:


Not according the JMA it isn't -

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In East China Sea

At 19:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Neoguri (960 hPa) located at 29.0N 125.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots.. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 12 knots.


Like I said, the Japanese seem to have a strange classification system.


*shrugs* I think everybody has weird classifications scales.

Quoting Sfloridacat5:
I've been watching a storm chaser (Monsoon Tracker)that I haven't seen before.
He's on the severe storms in Arizona.
It's cool to just watch the desert environment and topography.
Don't get to see storm chasing in the desert too often.

I miss the desert. During monsoon season, they get some very impressive storms. My dad used to won a motel, gas station, and the only state liquor store in Springdale UT, right at the entrance to Zion National Park. One summer day, we have thunderstorms that were mostly over the plateau area to the north of Zion. Just some off and on showers where we were. The Virgin River ran right across the street. It was normally a placid stream a couple of feet deep. The locals put in a couple of temporary dams to make a swimming hole. About an hour after the storm had apparently ended, I was standing outside and heard a sound kind of like a truck wide open trying to make it uphill. It is a grade coming into town, so I looked south to see if I could find the truck. When I turned back north again, the Virgin had risen about six feet in maybe 30 seconds. It rose another 10 feet in the next 10 minutes. It was carrying full size cottonwood trees downstream. The flood lasted about a half hour before the water went down. An hour later, except for all the debris and the fact the swimming hole was gone, you couldn't tell anything had happened. I later found out the flood had washed out almost every road in the park, and the park was closed for about a month.

When they say flash flood in the desert, they aren't kidding. :-)
Quoting Randrewl:
If you don't bother to read the information you can't possibly understand what it says!


I did read it. My only point was a drifting object is easier to find in the dark if it has some kind of lighted beacon. He was lucky the GPS continued to work. I've been sailing for about 40 years and have some experience looking for things in the ocean in the dark. I also have no idea what this guy's relationship is to Cantore. You were the one who said it was incredible he did anything to help. No harm meant.
Quoting 189. sar2401:


I miss the desert. During monsoon season, they get some very impressive storms. My dad used to won a motel, gas station, and the only state liquor store in Springdale UT, right at the entrance to Zion National Park.

When they say flash flood in the desert, they aren't kidding. :-)


I wish I could win a motel, gas station, and a liquor store. :D

On the flood note, I always find those videos amazing whether it be haboobs, or these little trickles of water coming down a dry streambed on a partly cloudy day, then turning into a raging torrent.
Quoting sar2401:

I did read it. My only point was a drifting object is easier to find in the dark if it has some kind of lighted beacon. He was lucky the GPS continued to work. I've been sailing for about 40 years and have some experience looking for things in the ocean in the dark. I also have no idea what this guy's relationship is to Cantore. You were the one who said it was incredible he did anything to help. No harm meant.



It is some great recent technology used in Arthur. I am not Mark's barker...I am not his friend...met him once..that's all.

No harm taken friend!

DC/Baltimore area be prepared to expect 75 mph winds with this line possibility is there.


SEL5

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 405
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
635 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN CONNECTICUT
WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY
EASTERN NEW YORK
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
VERMONT
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT FROM 635 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF BURLINGTON VERMONT TO 10 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
NEWARK NEW JERSEY. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
Quoting 132. Naga5000:



Pfft. I said it would be cold this winter AND hot this summer. Nailed it.


well I missed that tidbit..I only see you arguing about climate change on here..let me know when you put out your next prediction and we can compare with the almanac..:)..


Keeping an eye here
We Brazilians are impressed after this amazing game. We all had to have a major, or even the biggest football match in a world cup. The five-times champions Brazil power and potency three-time champion Germany. I'm 17 and always said that Germany is my second home, but Brazil will always come first. The Germans are to be congratulated, no doubt, and good luck to face the winner of tomorrow .... Rivals has always been against Argentina, we are much hoping for Holland to win it tomorrow and play the final against Germany. Yes, we were taken out of the Africa Cup in 2010 because of the defeat against the Netherlands, but it would be the worst time to see Argentina in a final in our home. Congradulations, GO GO Germany, be four-times champion, we are with you and respect you very much!!!
Quoting 197. Articuno:



Keeping an eye here


The "D" word comes to mind.
Just coming out of lurkdom for the first time this season to say HI Everyone!! Hoping it remains a quiet season for us all even though I know most you prefer to see some action, I rather not :) back to lurking I go!!


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 406
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
555 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
WEST TENNESSEE

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 555 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE


THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF FORT SMITH ARKANSAS TO 60 MILES NORTHEAST OF TUPELO
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
Thunderstorms/Rainy night here in S FL!!
Quoting pablosyn:
We Brazilians are impressed after this amazing game. We all had to have a major, or even the biggest football match in a world cup. The five-times champions Brazil power and potency three-time champion Germany. I'm 17 and always said that Germany is my second home, but Brazil will always come first. The Germans are to be congratulated, no doubt, and good luck to face the winner of tomorrow .... Rivals has always been against Argentina, we are much hoping for Holland to win it tomorrow and play the final against Germany. Yes, we were taken out of the Africa Cup in 2010 because of the defeat against the Netherlands, but it would be the worst time to see Argentina in a final in our home. Congradulations, GO GO Germany, be four-times champion, we are with you and respect you very much!!!

Nice post, considering….
A terrible game for Brazil, a brilliant game for Germany.

Football is filled with surprises.
That's why it's the Worlds most popular game.

Go Germany, but I wish Holland well.
Nice rain again all over South Florida this evening!


Quoting 203. pottery:


Nice post, considering….
A terrible game for Brazil, a brilliant game for Germany.

Football is filled with surprises.
That's why it's the Worlds most popular game.

Go Germany, but I wish Holland well.


Thanks a lot!!! We're not believing it happened
Next system in WPAC:





GFS has it becoming Neoguri part 2 in the long range:



CMC has a different course of action:



Will be another interesting system to watch.
Quoting Astrometeor:


I wish I could win a motel, gas station, and a liquor store. :D

On the flood note, I always find those videos amazing whether it be haboobs, or these little trickles of water coming down a dry streambed on a partly cloudy day, then turning into a raging torrent.

LOL. I think my dad enjoyed it as well. The area is heavily Mormon. In theory, they aren't supposed to drink, but many of them came in and bought Everclear for "medicinal" purposes. If you haven't heard of it, Google it. Pretty powerful stuff. Takes rust right off your wheels. :-)

That was the only real flash flood I've ever seen. We were supposed to go hiking earlier in the day in the Virgin River Narrows. This was in the early 70's, long before the internet and radar. The sky just didn't look right to me so we decided to postpone the hike until the following day. Best decision I've ever made. Two hikers never made it back out. Imagine being in a place 10 feet wide, 600 feet tall, with the water rising and a big cottonwood tree coming at you. I've had a healthy respect for flash floods since that day.
Quoting 198. pablosyn:

We Brazilians are impressed after this amazing game. We all had to have a major, or even the biggest football match in a world cup. The five-times champions Brazil power and potency three-time champion Germany. I'm 17 and always said that Germany is my second home, but Brazil will always come first. The Germans are to be congratulated, no doubt, and good luck to face the winner of tomorrow .... Rivals has always been against Argentina, we are much hoping for Holland to win it tomorrow and play the final against Germany. Yes, we were taken out of the Africa Cup in 2010 because of the defeat against the Netherlands, but it would be the worst time to see Argentina in a final in our home. Congradulations, GO GO Germany, be four-times champion, we are with you and respect you very much!!!


Oh, thanks Pablo, generous post. I must confess I was a bit *ashamed* of those many goals by Germany. Some less would have done the same job, huh. Thanks for the hospitality anyway!!
I'm just coming home and will have a (short!) look whether some weather was interesting enough to be reported here, lol.
Astro's blog.

I'm [somewhat] monitoring tonight's severe weather threat for Middle TN.
Fausto is a disgraced as a tropical cyclone. Thought of him making a run at cat 1 recieve a weak storm.
The mighty Mississippi at Davenport, Iowa will be slowly falling out of flood stage over the next week as long as no more heavy rains hits the Upper Midwest.

213. skook
Anyone have the rotation of the storm in Central pa that they coukd share. Its the Schuylkill and dauphin county storm.
Quoting Envoirment:
Next system in WPAC:





GFS have it becoming Neoguri part 2 in the long range:



CMC has a different course of action:



Will be another interesting system to watch.

Our current storm is being watched a little nervously in Korea. It has been west of the forecast for the last two days and, if it doesn't make the forecast turn to the northeast, Korea could catch more of the storm.



Neoguri is looking pretty ragged right now and it should continue to weaken. Waters off Korea are a little warmer than off the southern coast of Japan, so we'll see how well the forecast pans out.

Quoting 209. barbamz:



Oh, thanks Pablo, generous post. I must confess I was a bit *ashamed* of those many goals by Germany. Some less would have done the same job, huh. Thanks for the hospitality anyway!!
I'm just coming home and will have a (short!) look whether some weather was interesting enough to be reported here, lol.



Ah, already got this hail storm in the capital of Bulgaria, Sofia, today:



Have a look around 5:00, umm:


Near Berlin/Germany today:

getting really dark and windy here, branches hitting the windows and etc
neighbors saying that the tree's bout to snap in the backyard, it's going to crush the fence
I'm very excited for this upcoming SAILS update to KRAX just few miles from my house. I'm a huge fan of this technology :)

Quoting 213. skook:

Anyone have the rotation of the storm in Central pa that they coukd share. Its the Schuylkill and dauphin county storm.


I don't have a radar to post, all i know is there is a tornado warning for it.
220. wxmod
West Greenland sooty ice. MODIS satellite photo.

College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 645 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING BINGHAMTON NY - KBGM 740 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 633 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 629 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING PHOENIX AZ - KPSR 428 PM MST TUE JUL 8 2014
TORNADO WARNING     STATE COLLEGE PA - KCTP 728 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014
222. skook
Quoting 219. Astrometeor:



I don't have a radar to post, all i know is there is a tornado warning for it.


Its where im from, still have all my family there.
Quoting 222. skook:



Its where im from, still have all my family there.


I understand, my mother's from Camp Hill. I have plenty of family in the area.
693  
WFUS51 KALY 082350  
TORALY  
NYC041-113-090030-  
/O.NEW.KALY.TO.W.0006.140708T2350Z-140709T0030Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
750 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...  
CENTRAL HAMILTON COUNTY IN EASTERN NEW YORK...  
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SPECULATOR...INDIAN LAKE...  
 
* UNTIL 830 PM EDT  
 
* AT 746 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 10 MILES WEST OF  
LAKE PLEASANT...OR 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SPECULATOR...MOVING  
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.  
 
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...  
LAKE PLEASANT BY 755 PM EDT...  
SPECULATOR AND MOFFITT BEACH CAMPGROUND BY 800 PM EDT...  
6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LEWEY LAKE CAMPGROUND BY 805 PM EDT...  
NORTH CREEK...JOHNSBURG AND 9 MILES WEST OF CHESTERTOWN BY 830 PM  
EDT...  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING  
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF  
70 MPH.  
 
THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A  
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS  
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN  
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO  
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.  
 
IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A  
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE  
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.  
 
PLEASE REPORT HAIL SIZE...DAMAGING WINDS AND REPORTS OF TREES DOWN TO  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY EMAIL AT ALB.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV...  
ON FACEBOOK AT WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.ALBANY. GOV  
OR TWITTER @NWSALBANY.  
 
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT  
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS  
AND EASTERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 4381 7411 4380 7405 4375 7405 4380 7346  
4353 7365 4332 7461 4364 7478 4384 7424  
4382 7421 4383 7414  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2350Z 246DEG 42KT 4351 7455  
 
 
 
NAS/IRL  
 

Trough over lake O flooding my yard in PBG FL
Ric...what can you tell us regarding the latest Enso info please?


I ask because this not truly normal man!

Some amazing Pics coming from S&S Storm Chasing and Forecasting Team page here is one of them! View of Pillow after storm passed Taken by Audra Laudenslager Eyster



Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Statement as of 8:03 PM EDT on July 08, 2014

CT . Connecticut counties included are

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 405 remains in effect until 1200 am EDT for the following locations

Fairfield Hartford Litchfield New Haven Tolland

watch out here!!
Quoting 207. Envoirment:

Next system in WPAC:





GFS has it becoming Neoguri part 2 in the long range:



CMC has a different course of action:



Will be another interesting system to watch.




never really seen a predicted storm shoot the gap like this
231. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA presented thru Canada.gov
Subject:: POI3b acting up but NOT consistent.
Imagery:ir
Imagery period:: 201407-08;0145UTC till 201407-08;2115UTC



Image of the wave off Africa now nearing Venezuela's northern coast.
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------- ------------
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------- ------------

Credit:: NOAA/Canada.gov

ANOMALIES sea surface around N. America for a 30day period June 7th thru July 8th 2014


Latest ACTUAL temperatures graphics. click2enlarge











Quoting 218. Bluestorm5:

I'm very excited for this upcoming SAILS update to KRAX just few miles from my house. I'm a huge fan of this technology :)






Is that a pun????? Because it looks like a fan?
Quoting 232. Grothar:





Is that a pun????? Because it looks like a fan?


I'm so disappointed that I didn't catch this earlier! Nice one, Gro :)
RIP Fausto?

Quoting 233. Bluestorm5:



I'm so disappointed that I didn't catch this earlier! Nice one, Gro :)


I only tease people that can take it. When I saw it, I had to laugh.
Quoting 207. Envoirment:

Next system in WPAC:





GFS has it becoming Neoguri part 2 in the long range:



CMC has a different course of action:



Will be another interesting system to watch.


North Indian Ocean too...
Quoting 234. TropicalAnalystwx13:

RIP Fausto?




RIP Brazil too :'/ I'm still sad.
238. SLU


Image and video hosting by TinyPic
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I'm very excited for this upcoming SAILS update to KRAX just few miles from my house. I'm a huge fan of this technology :)


LOL. I see Gro picked up your unintentional pun immediately. Puns were very popular back when me and Gro were young. I think it had something to do with all those newfangled horseless carriages that were punning around. :-)

I'll be very interested in what you see from this new radar. I'm hoping you really will be able to see a noticeable change in how storms look.
Quoting 237. pablosyn:



RIP Brazil too :'/ I'm still sad.

Y'all made it to the semifinals, that's an accomplishment in and of itself. We were eliminated in the Round of 16. There's always more chances though, we'll see how World Cup 2018 goes. :)
Quoting pablosyn:


RIP Brazil too :'/ I'm still sad.

I only got to see the last 10 minutes. I thought the score must have been a mistake when I first saw it. That's the quietest soccer game I ever saw. With Neymar out injured, I knew Brazil would have a tough time, but nothing like this. I guess it was just one of those games when nothing went right. :-(
Quoting 239. sar2401:


LOL. I see Gro picked up your unintentional pun immediately. Puns were very popular back when me and Gro were young. I think it had something to do with all those newfangled horseless carriages that were punning around. :-)

I'll be very interested in what you see from this new radar. I'm hoping you really will be able to see a noticeable change in how storms look.


Already saw some noticeable changes in Nebraska during that week of tornadoes, which is why I'm the fan. You can see how storms behave better.
Quoting 240. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Y'all made it to the semifinals, that's an accomplishment in and of itself. We were eliminated in the Round of 16. There's always more chances though, we'll see how World Cup 2018 goes. :)


We did get out of group with Ghana, Portugal, and Germany which isn't easy at all. I feel pretty good about USMNT this year.
Quoting barbamz:


Ah, already got this hail storm in the capital of Bulgaria, Sofia, today:



Have a look around 5:00, umm:


Near Berlin/Germany today:


Is hail becoming more common in Europe or am I just seeing more of it? I swear I don't remember such heavy falls of hail in so many different parts of the continent. Alabama, on the other hand, where hail is relatively common, has seem almost no hail so far this year. It's almost like the weather has been picked up and moved elsewhere. Well, except for our famous heat. High was 101 today, and it's still 90 at 1955. Yuck!
245. JRRP
Quoting SLU:


Image and video hosting by TinyPic

lol
Quoting Bluestorm5:


Already saw some noticeable changes in Nebraska during that week of tornadoes, which is why I'm the fan. You can see how storms behave better.

Maybe we'll get an upgrade once everyone else in the country gets it done, and they can ship Bubba's Radar and CB Shoppe some used parts. :-)
Quoting SLU:


Image and video hosting by TinyPic



And your point is what SLU?

Just got hit by the line of storms crossing PA, and the power went out
Quoting 234. TropicalAnalystwx13:

RIP Fausto?


Should I feel sorry for him? nop not even the slightest. A good name throw down the toilet.
The line of storms weakened as it reached College Park MD and we only got 45 knot gusts and about 6mm of rain (not enough). Lucky I didn't get 60+ gusts experienced further west
Quoting 243. Bluestorm5:



We did get out of group with Ghana, Portugal, and Germany which isn't easy at all. I feel pretty good about USMNT this year.

Yeah, we definitely played better than I thought we would. Two of our better players -- Landon Donovan and Jozy Altidore -- were not available for different reasons (Landon wasn't chosen by Klinsmann to participate in the World Cup; Altidore tore his hamstring in the first match), and those two could've made the difference in many games.

And who can forget Tim Howard?!
Quoting 238. SLU:



Image and video hosting by TinyPic


RIP El Nino...
Quoting CaribBoy:


RIP El Nino...


Then can you please explain this forecast chart if El Nino is dead?

254. beell
Quoting 251. TropicalAnalystwx13:




And who can forget Tim Howard?!




Quoting 252. CaribBoy:



RIP El Nino...
Quoting 252. CaribBoy:



RIP El Nino...
And it will go up again in a few days -_-
Quoting Gearsts:
And it will go up again in a few days -_-


Please back-up your comments with at least the modicum of proof!

So, now I have done my job regarding my contributions to the blog.

Have a great night everyone!

Quoting 240. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Y'all made it to the semifinals, that's an accomplishment in and of itself. We were eliminated in the Round of 16. There's always more chances though, we'll see how World Cup 2018 goes. :)


You can not be a football power in the question. But you are the greatest world power. A very well developed country, with a great quality of life, a good salary, good infrastructure, education, good qualification of physicians and among many other things ... Things that we do not have Brazilians. Guys, Brazil's minimum wage is 680 reais, about $ 307 USD. That's it. We had to import doctors from other countries (Cuba, for example), why here sucks. People dying in hospitals super crowded with patients on the floor for not having beds, drugs, crimes, corruption among much other series of bad things that happen here and I think not enough for the outdoors. Our education sucks, lack qualified teachers and infrastructure. Our teachers are underpaid, their salaries, as well as the good doctors (and not many) is shameful. And why not quoted firefighters, police ... Meanwhile our politicians continue robbing and stealing. We wanted to at least have the joy of having our sixth title in world cups in our house, at least something good would happen in our country. Our player David Luiz said the following right after the end of the match:
"I just wanter to give some happiness to my people. To my people, who suffer so much already. Unfortunately we could not do it.'m Sorry, everyone. Sorry to all Brazilians."
With these words and with the gesture he made %u200B%u200Blast week with the player James Rodriguez of Colombia comforting him, we consider it our hero FIFA World Cup Brazil 2014.
A sad true story : /
Quoting 240. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Y'all made it to the semifinals, that's an accomplishment in and of itself. We were eliminated in the Round of 16. There's always more chances though, we'll see how World Cup 2018 goes. :)


You can not be a football power in the question. But you are the greatest world power. A very well developed country, with a great quality of life, a good salary, good infrastructure, education, good qualification of physicians and among many other things ... Things that we do not have Brazilians. Guys, Brazil's minimum wage is 680 reais, about $ 307 USD. That's it. We had to import doctors from other countries (Cuba, for example), why here sucks. People dying in hospitals super crowded with patients on the floor for not having beds, drugs, crimes, corruption among much other series of bad things that happen here and I think not enough for the outdoors. Our education sucks, lack qualified teachers and infrastructure. Our teachers are underpaid, their salaries, as well as the good doctors (and not many) is shameful. And why not quoted firefighters, police ... Meanwhile our politicians continue robbing and stealing. We wanted to at least have the joy of having our sixth title in world cups in our house, at least something good would happen in our country. Our player David Luiz said the following right after the end of the match:
"I just wanter to give some happiness to my people. To my people, who suffer so much already. Unfortunately we could not do it.'m Sorry, everyone. Sorry to all Brazilians."
With these words and with the gesture he made ​​last week with the player James Rodriguez of Colombia, comforting him, we consider it our hero of the World Cup Brazil 2014 World Cup.
A sad true story : /
An alternate scenario that is quickly becoming more plausible is that Fausto never strengthens at all, in line with the global models who suggested this all along.



I recall a similar evolution with Bonnie in 2010.
You can not be a football power in the question. But you are the greatest world power. A very well developed country, with a great quality of life, a good salary, good infrastructure, education, good qualification of physicians and among many other things ... Things that we do not have Brazilians. Guys, Brazil's minimum wage is 680 reais, about $ 307 USD. That's it. We had to import doctors from other countries (Cuba, for example), why here sucks. People dying in hospitals super crowded with patients on the floor for not having beds, drugs, crimes, corruption among much other series of bad things that happen here and I think not enough for the outdoors. Our education sucks, lack qualified teachers and infrastructure. Our teachers are underpaid, their salaries, as well as the good doctors (and not many) is shameful. And why not quoted firefighters, police ... Meanwhile our politicians continue robbing and stealing. We wanted to at least have the joy of having our sixth title in world cups in our house, at least something good would happen in our country. Our player David Luiz said the following right after the end of the match:
"I just wanter to give some happiness to my people. To my people, who suffer so much already. Unfortunately we could not do it.'m Sorry, everyone. Sorry to all Brazilians."
With these words and with the gesture he made last week with the player James Rodriguez of Colombia comforting him, we consider it our hero FIFA World Cup Brazil 2014.
A sad true story : /

(sorry i need to see a thing, so again this post....sorry guys :/)
Quoting 252. CaribBoy:



RIP El Nino...


Whether we get a full-fledged El Nino or not, the atmosphere is eventually going to follow the oceanic warming signal, which is still there.
Quoting 253. Randrewl:


Then can you please explain this forecast chart if El Nino is dead?

Forecast can be Wrong!!
Quoting 260. KoritheMan:

An alternate scenario that is quickly becoming more plausible is that Fausto never strengthens at all, in line with the global models who suggested this all along.



I recall a similar evolution with Bonnie in 2010.


looks like a open wave
265. JRRP
Quoting Gearsts:
And it will go up again in a few days -_-

may be by the end of this month
266. JRRP
Quoting gulfbreeze:
Forecast can be Wrong!!

yea like forecast of super el niño this year
Quoting 263. gulfbreeze:

Forecast can be Wrong!!


I do find it difficult to believe we're going to see an El Nino at this point. The climatological motif is for ENSO events to transition in the spring, and culminate during the winter. We may see some slight intensification of the ongoing warm neutral episode, though, as an educated guess.
Quoting 234. TropicalAnalystwx13:

RIP Fausto?



The center appears to have literally been ejected out of the storm. It doesn't look likely that any further intensification will occur before Fausto completely dissipates in the next day or two. The NHC will definitely have to lower their intensity forecast from a 60 mph peak with the current trends. The ITCZ has been there to support Fausto, so as he has began a more west-northwesterly track and detached from the ITCZ the response with a lack of convection has become evident.
Other than Fausto, the tropics will tend to remain quiet across the western hemisphere. Though, it is worth noting that the GFS continues to hint at a pattern favorable for producing a Cape Verde tropical cyclone toward the end of the month. Easterly trade winds will remain slower than average, and the upper levels will favor a more anticyclonic flow aloft across the eastern portion of the MDR.



It cannot be said whether or not there will be a tropical wave to take advantage of these conditions during that time period, as it is 15 days out, but it is worth paying attention to as we progress through the month.
Quoting 264. Tazmanian:



looks like a open wave


The circulation is certainly not well-defined.



And even with visible images, it's been daunting to find.
Quoting 266. JRRP:


yea like forecast of super el niño this year


What super El Niño this year?
Quoting 244. sar2401:


Is hail becoming more common in Europe or am I just seeing more of it? I swear I don't remember such heavy falls of hail in so many different parts of the continent. Alabama, on the other hand, where hail is relatively common, has seem almost no hail so far this year. It's almost like the weather has been picked up and moved elsewhere. Well, except for our famous heat. High was 101 today, and it's still 90 at 1955. Yuck!


Tell us again why you moved to such a Nice(sic) place?
Quoting 260. KoritheMan:

An alternate scenario that is quickly becoming more plausible is that Fausto never strengthens at all, in line with the global models who suggested this all along.



I recall a similar evolution with Bonnie in 2010.

The GFS nailed it... and one of the rare occasions of this season; the HWRF was wrong.
So.... um... we will see how this goes ohh.
Quoting 271. PedleyCA:



Tell us again why you moved to such a Nice(sic) place?


Because he wanted to live in a place that all hail broke loose.
Quoting 256. Randrewl:



Please back-up your comments with at least the modicum of proof!


Quoting 270. Dakster:



What super El Niño this year?


Exactly.
My last little post for the night.
The state of the 2014 North Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Hurricane seasons.



The first hurricane of 2014 came a full two and a half months earlier than 2013.

The North Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy produced thus far in comparison to previous seasons


Goodnight
@KyleNoel15's Tweets are protected.

-___- How am I supposed to read them?
Quoting 251. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yeah, we definitely played better than I thought we would. Two of our better players -- Landon Donovan and Jozy Altidore -- were not available for different reasons (Landon wasn't chosen by Klinsmann to participate in the World Cup; Altidore tore his hamstring in the first match), and those two could've made the difference in many games.

And who can forget Tim Howard?!


I think our defense lacking against world powers stood between Round 16 and quarterfinals, though. Ditto the differences between draw/win over Portugal and lose/draw to Germany.
Wow.

Caper Verde season begins in August.
The storms that just traveled through central New York State a few hours ago. Casualties only a few miles from my house. Very heavy, hard storms here, but not damage. Do not know if I know the victims yet. Praying for them. http://www.cnycentral.com/news/story.aspx?id=10677 52
Quoting 269. KoritheMan:



The circulation is certainly not well-defined.



And even with visible images, it's been daunting to find.

Throw back Thursday...on a Tuesday:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012013
800 AM PDT WED MAY 15 2013


THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON HAS WASTED NO TIME
GETTING STARTED. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WE HAVE BEEN
MONITORING SOUTH OF THE MEXICAN COAST BECAME BETTER ORGANIZED
OVERNIGHT...AND A NEARLY UNBROKEN BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION NOW WRAPS
AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW T2.0 FROM TAFB AND
T1.5 FROM SAB...SO THE SYSTEM IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A 30-KT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT. THE DEPRESSION
IS SITUATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PACIFIC
WATERS. EVEN THOUGH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS LIKELY TO AMPLIFY IN THE
VICINITY OF CALIFORNIA IN THE COMING DAYS...THE DEPRESSION IS SO
FAR SOUTH THAT ANY EFFECTS ON STEERING SHOULD BE MINIMAL. A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS POSSIBLE IN 4 TO 5 DAYS ONCE THE SYSTEM
REACHES THE WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT
AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE SOLUTIONS THAT SHOW A
STRONGER SYSTEM...SPECIFICALLY THE GFS...BAM MEDIUM...AND BAM DEEP.

THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN A ZONE OF UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO
THE EAST OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET...AND IT WILL BE TRAVERSING THE
WARMEST WATERS OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT STRENGTHENING FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS
BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND
APPROACHES COOLER WATERS. SINCE CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE...IT
SEEMS REASONABLE THAT THE DEPRESSION SHOULD AT LEAST BE ABLE TO
KEEP UP WITH A CLIMATOLOGICAL INTENSIFICATION RATE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST THEREFORE SHOWS FASTER STRENGTHENING AND A HIGHER PEAK
INTENSITY THAN SHIPS AND LGEM SINCE THE CLIMATOLOGY-PERSISTENCE
MODEL SHIFOR IS HIGHER THAN EITHER OF THOSE TWO MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 8.2N 103.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 8.6N 105.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 9.1N 107.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 9.5N 108.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 10.0N 110.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 11.5N 113.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 13.0N 115.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 15.5N 117.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012013
200 AM PDT FRI MAY 17 2013


ASCAT AND OSCAT DATA SHOW THAT ALVIN LACKS A CLOSED CIRCULATION IN
ITS WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES ALSO INDICATE
THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME ELONGATED WITHOUT A WELL-DEFINED CENTER
AND FURTHER EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. THEREFORE...ALVIN IS NO
LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY.
ALTHOUGH THE REMNANTS WILL BE OVER WARM WATER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...THE GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY SHOW PERSISTENT WESTERLY
SHEAR...WHICH WILL LIKELY INHIBIT ANY REGENERATION ATTEMPTS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM PLEASE SEE HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 10.3N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
I know in the days immediately preceding there were scattered pop ups, but does anyone on here know if FL was having wet/normal/or dry conditions in the few months leading up to Andrew?
286. SLU
Quoting 245. JRRP:


lol


:)
Quoting 283. PedleyCA:


Is not that funny when it gets posted every single day.
Ok, now coming online since yesterday. Is it just me or does it seem as though tropical cyclones globally suddenly seem mysteriously able to disintegrate/weaken or are unable to even form when there are "seemingly" perfect conditions around. I came back tonight only to see Fausto dead for all purposes, and Neoguri a giant mess. This being in the generally favourable Pacific no less. I hold out no hope for the Atlantic this season. My seasonal forecast right now is 10-3-1, with 1 major in there only because I don't see back-to-back years with none... I'll gladly feast on a large crow pot-pie in November :-)
Quoting RidingTheStormOut:
The storms that just traveled through central New York State a few hours ago. Casualties only a few miles from my house. Very heavy, hard storms here, but not damage. Do not know if I know the victims yet. Praying for them. http://www.cnycentral.com/news/story.aspx?id=10677 52


Is this the area near you?

SMITHFIELD -- The National Weather Service confirms three people were killed in the 4000 block of Goff Road in Peterboro, Madison County. Family members confirm a mother and her daughter are among those killed. No name are being revealed at this point.

The Oneida Daily Dispatch Newspaper reports at least one home is leveled.

We have a crew headed to the scene and will update the situation here.
Link

From the pictures in the area, it looks like lots of trees and power lines down. There's another story here about the three deaths. There's no word on what caused the deaths and this "confirmation" came from the NWS FB page, not from the city or public safety? I don't really know what's going on at this point. The Midway Drive-in was also badly damsged
Quoting 288. LemieT:

Is it just me or does it seem as though tropical cyclones globally suddenly seem mysteriously able to disintegrate/weaken or are unable to even form when there are "seemingly" perfect conditions around.


The environment surrounding Fausto was never ideal. The center was always straddling the north wall of the convection even though the outflow was (and still is) well-defined. Mid-level shear, dry air, and possible convergence competition with a convectively active ITCZ did the storm in.
Quoting 253. Randrewl:



Then can you please explain this forecast chart if El Nino is dead?




Nothing to explain... this is a bust forecast.
Quoting 291. CaribBoy:



Nothing to explain... this is a bust forecast.
Bust?


Well, then again, we're not even halfway through July...
Another T-Wave off the coast.
A cloud of dense SAL and dry in front of it should result in the same dismal performance as the last one.

Still waiting for some rain down here…….
Quoting 289. sar2401:



Is this the area near you?

SMITHFIELD -- The National Weather Service confirms three people were killed in the 4000 block of Goff Road in Peterboro, Madison County. Family members confirm a mother and her daughter are among those killed. No name are being revealed at this point.

The Oneida Daily Dispatch Newspaper reports at least one home is leveled.

We have a crew headed to the scene and will update the situation here.
Link

From the pictures in the area, it looks like lots of trees and power lines down. There's another story here about the three deaths. There's no word on what caused the deaths and this "confirmation" came from the NWS FB page, not from the city or public safety? I don't really know what's going on at this point. The Midway Drive-in was also badly damsged


Yes, this is just two or three miles up the hill from me. I have found that the deceased are persons that I have a passing acquaintance with. God bless the families.
Quoting 293. opal92nwf:


Well, then again, we're not even halfway through July...


And we are about average for this time of year in terms of activity. Makes a nice change from previous years!
298. silas
People. It's early July. It's very unrealistic to expect a lot of activity. Even this is a pretty decent amount of activity for this time of year.

Breaking: as of 245utc or around 1045pm EDT, satellite imagery indicated a mid level circulation developing just northeast of the northern most Bahamas island. Satellite shows the circulation well on IR and wind shear is low 5-10 knots, warm SSTs above 84F, and moist air aloft. However there is an upper level circulation nearby which may try and prevent development, however there is vorticity at the lower levels to around 850mb which could allow the mid level circulation to transfer down into the lower levels and develop upwards with time. Still a lot of time before the system moves any.
Quoting 299. TheDawnAwakening:

Breaking: as of 245utc or around 1045pm EDT, satellite imagery indicated a mid level circulation developing just northeast of the northern most Bahamas island. Satellite shows the circulation well on IR and wind shear is low 5-10 knots, warm SSTs above 84F, and moist air aloft. However there is an upper level circulation nearby which may try and prevent development, however there is vorticity at the lower levels to around 850mb which could allow the mid level circulation to transfer down into the lower levels and develop upwards with time. Still a lot of time before the system moves any.

Meh. Vortmax is at 500MB which is a full-blown mid level circulation. Though conditions are favorable, convergence is not favored and a divergent flow aloft has allowed for all convective activity to collapse.
Heck, it isn't like anything else is going on, so watch away...

Just my take that there isn't much there to work with in the way of the potential of a developing tropical cyclone. Bored, and decided to look at the blog one last time. Now I'm done for the night.
Thank you for your post about the situation in Brazil, Pablo (#261), and for adding a bit of depth to why Ruiz said what he did after the match was over (which I just happened to see on TV about 30 minutes ago). A sad day there, for sure, as certainly more was hoped for, and expected, but please hang in there and keep trying to move forward. (...rose...)

And I knew we had some bad storms here in New York, sar (#289), but I didn't know they were *that* bad out near Syracuse, what with many locations with serious damage and power outages, and now, from your post, hearing that three were killed there, including two children. That is just awful, and only points to the fact of how bad things can get in severe storms, and so very quickly. :-(

Jo
Quoting 253. Randrewl:



Then can you please explain this forecast chart if El Nino is dead?


Anyone thinking this is going to shape up like a 2002 El Nino event? A late one in the fall?

Quoting 288. LemieT:

Ok, now coming online since yesterday. Is it just me or does it seem as though tropical cyclones globally suddenly seem mysteriously able to disintegrate/weaken or are unable to even form when there are "seemingly" perfect conditions around. I came back tonight only to see Fausto dead for all purposes, and Neoguri a giant mess. This being in the generally favourable Pacific no less. I hold out no hope for the Atlantic this season. My seasonal forecast right now is 10-3-1, with 1 major in there only because I don't see back-to-back years with none... I'll gladly feast on a large crow pot-pie in November :-)
The low vertical instability may have something to do with that, drier air in the mid-levels as a result of low RH values. Also, some of us including myself not afraid to admit it still have 2004-2005irits. Where we are expecting those monster Category 5 hurricanes and active seasons all the time. Only reason it may not seemed to be as active like say 2010-2012 is because of the lack of landfalls.
Quoting 259. pablosyn:



You can not be a football power in the question. But you are the greatest world power. A very well developed country, with a great quality of life, a good salary, good infrastructure, education, good qualification of physicians and among many other things ... Things that we do not have Brazilians. Guys, Brazil's minimum wage is 680 reais, about $ 307 USD. That's it. We had to import doctors from other countries (Cuba, for example), why here sucks. People dying in hospitals super crowded with patients on the floor for not having beds, drugs, crimes, corruption among much other series of bad things that happen here and I think not enough for the outdoors. Our education sucks, lack qualified teachers and infrastructure. Our teachers are underpaid, their salaries, as well as the good doctors (and not many) is shameful. And why not quoted firefighters, police ... Meanwhile our politicians continue robbing and stealing. We wanted to at least have the joy of having our sixth title in world cups in our house, at least something good would happen in our country. Our player David Luiz said the following right after the end of the match:
"I just wanter to give some happiness to my people. To my people, who suffer so much already. Unfortunately we could not do it.'m Sorry, everyone. Sorry to all Brazilians."
With these words and with the gesture he made ​​last week with the player James Rodriguez of Colombia, comforting him, we consider it our hero of the World Cup Brazil 2014 World Cup.
A sad true story : /

Watching that game honestly made me sad.
Quoting 294. pottery:

Another T-Wave off the coast.
A cloud of dense SAL and dry in front of it should result in the same dismal performance as the last one.

Still waiting for some rain down here…….

That wave presently at 43/8 might bring you more rain than expected.
As the NHC says, convection is limited, "at this time".
We'll see.
Well, Tampa had over 4 inches of rain today, and I had yet another day with none. Overall its been a busy summer area wide, but frustratingly its been the driest I've ever seen this time of year at my place since I've had a rain gauge. We've literally been in a precip doughnut hole so far this season.

Quoting RidingTheStormOut:


Yes, this is just two or three miles up the hill from me. I have found that the deceased are persons that I have a passing acquaintance with. God bless the families.

I'm sorry to hear that. From what I can gather from the local media, it appears that straight line winds caused at least one very large tree to fall into a structure. I guess the victims were unlucky enough to be inside and in the path of the tree. There are close to 100 wind damage reports from New York state in the SPC database now, and I'm sure more will be added later. The good thing is that the main line of storms has moved through.
Quoting 305. Jedkins01:

Well, Tampa had over 4 inches of rain today, and I had yet another day with none. Overall its been a busy summer area wide, but frustratingly its been the driest I've ever seen this time of year since I've had a rain gauge. We've literally been in a precip doughnut hole so far this season.


Yeah it really does depend on where you are. We had rain near the coast for two nights straight two nights ago and next morning it was steaming. I think it's either weak steering or outflow boundaries seem to be pushing storms in all sorts of direction and maybe your on the boundary of those outflow boundaries.
Quoting Jedkins01:
Well, Tampa had over 4 inches of rain today, and I had yet another day with none. Overall its been a busy summer area wide, but frustratingly its been the driest I've ever seen this time of year at my place since I've had a rain gauge. We've literally been in a precip doughnut hole so far this season.


Don't feel bad, Jed, same here. High of 101 degrees and it's still 81 now. Going on day 12 with no rain. Our first real chance is Thursday and that doesn't look too good. This is beginning to be like reverse cabin fever.
Quoting TylerStanfield:

Meh. Vortmax is at 500MB which is a full-blown mid level circulation. Though conditions are favorable, convergence is not favored and a divergent flow aloft has allowed for all convective activity to collapse.
Heck, it isn't like anything else is going on, so watch away...

Just my take that there isn't much there to work with in the way of the potential of a developing tropical cyclone. Bored, and decided to look at the blog one last time. Now I'm done for the night.

So far, the area of convection is very diurnal, waxing and waning with sunrise and sunset. Until it can keep decent convection going overnight I don't hold out much hope.
Quoting opal92nwf:


Well, then again, we're not even halfway through July...

Quite true, although a little thunderstorm now and again doesn't seem to be too much to ask. I keep reading about these amazing totals in central Florida while we sit here with nothing. There's a better than even chance this is some kind of conspiracy. The central Floridians have somehow tapped into HAARP and are diverting what should rightfully be our rain and stealing it. There's no other rational explanation I can come up with. :-)
Quoting 303. Jedkins01:


Watching that game honestly made me sad.
What made me sad was watching the reaction from the fans and then I realize how hard the people over there worked to fix up the venues and provide accommodations. Tough loss, but Brazil's enriching legacy of football will live on in World Cups to come. Germany also has that title. We can compare Brazil and Germany to the LA Lakers and Boston Celtics of the NBA. Rivals that beat up on one another, but likely have the utmost respect for each other. Even despite the result this World Cup was a success and I hope the money that they raised in Brazil will be put into good use to continue to build up the infrastructure of this developing country.
Well, as I'm sure at least Korithe knows from the few previous posts of mine over the last few years, I'm totally convinced that there are now technologies, some of them submarine-based in the U.S. case, that allow them to bang away at developing tropical storms and cyclones/hurricanes, and to keep them from fully developing, from "pulling in their skater's arms" and not becoming what the synoptics say they should become.

To me, they're hammering at the driest side of these storms, causing them to rain out before they can fully moisturize the air moving into their core, and thus keeping tropical storms diffuse and "uncentered" (they currently "explain" that as "monsoon" storm structures in the Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf), and keeping more fully-developed hurricanes/cyclones all raggedy and wobbly... and thus weaker.

I think that's what Japan or Taiwan did with Neoguri, as there was no real, knowable reason why it did not react, and develop, as the models and most all forecasters imagined it would. It was moving through "perfect" conditions, had an excellent, if large, eye, and kept trying to become nearly annular, as it probably should have.

But still, it couldn't get its act together at all, even right in the ocean area where *everyone* was predicting it would (so much like Gustav's predictions of a Cat 5 in the Gulf). Instead of developing more and more after its ERC, it got more disassociated, and, because of its weakness, moved well west of its forecast path, simply because it was forced into an asymmetry by the assault on its west side.

So, to me, it's time to wake up and smell the coffee about human intervention in tropical storm development. I mean, really, how many time do you/we have to hear "it didn't get as strong as I thought it would, or the models suggested it should" before we finally begin to believe that humans are actively intervening in these storm's development and strengthening? :-(

Jo
Quoting 308. sar2401:


Don't feel bad, Jed, same here. High of 101 degrees and it's still 81 now. Going on day 12 with no rain. Our first real chance is Thursday and that doesn't look too good. This is beginning to be like reverse cabin fever.
I know the feeling I've literally seen it rain in the next street over where my street is dry. One day it will rain at my neighbors house and mine will be dry. :P
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Anyone thinking this is going to shape up like a 2002 El Nino event? A late one in the fall?

The low vertical instability may have something to do with that, drier air in the mid-levels as a result of low RH values. Also, some of us including myself not afraid to admit it still have 2004-2005irits. Where we are expecting those monster Category 5 hurricanes and active seasons all the time. Only reason it may not seemed to be as active like say 2010-2012 is because of the lack of landfalls.

I don't really know enough about El Nino to make any kind of statement about what might happen other than the current weather pattern looks like an El Nino to me.

I think you're right about still having 2004/2005-itis. Look at 2005, for example. A fair number of storms either hung a left in the BOC or just went out to sea. OTOH, there were a lot of storms, more than enough to keep the blog (and most ordinary people along the coasts) busy. Really, it wasn't until November that we had a day without a storm starting, in progress, or dissipating. I think that's the biggest change. Not only don't we have any large storms, we have hardly any storms at all. By Thanksgiving, I was more than sick of tropical storms. I really don't ever want to see a repeat of 2005.

Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
I know the feeling I've literally seen it rain in the next street over where my street is dry. One day it will rain at my neighbors house and mine will be dry. :P

Even that wouldn't be so bad. At least I could hope that a thunderstorm in my area might head over to me, and the outflow winds do cool things off. We've had nothing but blazing sunshine. Several days now there's been not a cloud in the sky. In Alabama in summer, just like Florida, that's pretty rare.
Quoting 311. sar2401:


Quite true, although a little thunderstorm now and again doesn't seem to be too much to ask. I keep reading about these amazing totals in central Florida while we sit here with nothing. There's a better than even chance this is some kind of conspiracy. The central Floridians have somehow tapped into HAARP and are diverting what should rightfully be our rain and stealing it. There's no other rational explanation I can come up with. :-)

Problem is, I haven't had rain in over 2 weeks!! It's been trying the last couple days, convection will get going, but by midday, it all suddenly goes poof and we have almost clear sunny skies.
Quoting 313. flibinite:

Well, as I'm sure at least Korithe knows from the few previous posts of mine over the last few years, I'm totally convinced that there are now technologies, some of them submarine-based in the U.S. case, that allow them to bang away at developing tropical storms and cyclones/hurricanes, and to keep them from fully developing, from "pulling in their skater's arms" and not becoming what the synoptics say they should become.

To me, they're hammering at the driest side of these storms, causing them to rain out before they can fully moisturize the air moving into their core, and thus keeping tropical storms diffuse and "uncentered" (they currently "explain" that as "monsoon" storm structures in the Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf), and keeping more fully-developed hurricanes/cyclones all raggedy and wobbly... and thus weaker.

I think that's what Japan or Taiwan did with Neoguri, as there was no real, knowable reason why it did not react, and develop, as the models and most all forecasters imagined it would. It was moving through "perfect" conditions, had an excellent, if large, eye, and kept trying to become nearly annular, as it probably should have.

But still, it couldn't get its act together at all, even right in the ocean area where *everyone* was predicting it would (so much like Gustav's predictions of a Cat 5 in the Gulf). Instead of developing more and more after its ERC, it got more disassociated, and, because of its weakness, moved well west of its forecast path, simply because it was forced into an asymmetry by the assault on its west side.

So, to me, it's time to wake up and smell the coffee about human intervention in tropical storm development. I mean, really, how many time do you/we have to hear "it didn't get as strong as I thought it would, or the models suggested it should" before we finally begin to believe that humans are actively intervening in these storm's development and strengthening? :-(

Jo



Neoguri weakened because of mid-level dry air that got entrained into its circulation. The dry air was obvious from Neoguri's inception, but didn't appreciably impact the storm's intensity until Neoguri started its Eyewall Replacement Cycle.

How do you propose we can modify something as vast and chaotic as the atmosphere? Step away from the conspiracy websites and join the rest of us in reality.
319. JLPR2
Yay, more dust! ¬_¬

Quoting flibinite:
Well, as I'm sure at least Korithe knows from the few previous posts of mine over the last few years, I'm totally convinced that there are now technologies, some of them submarine-based in the U.S. case, that allow them to bang away at developing tropical storms and cyclones/hurricanes, and to keep them from fully developing, from "pulling in their skater's arms" and not becoming what the synoptics say they should become.

To me, they're hammering at the driest side of these storms, causing them to rain out before they can fully moisturize the air moving into their core, and thus keeping tropical storms diffuse and "uncentered" (they currently "explain" that as "monsoon" storm structures in the Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf), and keeping more fully-developed hurricanes/cyclones all raggedy and wobbly... and thus weaker.

I think that's what Japan or Taiwan did with Neoguri, as there was no real, knowable reason why it did not react, and develop, as the models and most all forecasters imagined it would. It was moving through "perfect" conditions, had an excellent, if large, eye, and kept trying to become nearly annular, as it probably should have.

But still, it couldn't get its act together at all, even right in the ocean area where *everyone* was predicting it would (so much like Gustav's predictions of a Cat 5 in the Gulf). Instead of developing more and more after its ERC, it got more disassociated, and, because of its weakness, moved well west of its forecast path, simply because it was forced into an asymmetry by the assault on its west side.

So, to me, it's time to wake up and smell the coffee about human intervention in tropical storm development. I mean, really, how many time do you/we have to hear "it didn't get as strong as I thought it would, or the models suggested it should" before we finally begin to believe that humans are actively intervening in these storm's development and strengthening? :-(

Jo

Until we actually understand everything about tropical storms, I much more inclined to believe their's a meteorological explanation for what happens than some kind of human intervention. Apart from the technology question, we haven't shown as a government we're very good at keeping secrets. This would be a big secret.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:



Neoguri weakened because of mid-level dry air that got entrained into its circulation. The dry air was obvious from Neoguri's inception, but didn't appreciably impact the storm's intensity until Neoguri started its Eyewall Replacement Cycle.

How do you propose we can modify something as vast and chaotic as the atmosphere? Step away from the conspiracy websites and join the rest of us in reality.







Quoting opal92nwf:

Problem is, I haven't had rain in over 2 weeks!! It's been trying the last couple days, convection will get going, but by midday, it all suddenly goes poof and we have almost clear sunny skies.

12 days for us so I feel your pain. I haven't even seen anything resembling a cumulonimbus in the past 5 days. The only good thing is it looks like a cold front will wash out near us late Thursday, and that may serve as a focusing mechanism to kick off more widespread storms - or not. We'll see what happens by Friday. Until then, I just have to keep dragging my hoses around. :-)
Hear, hear, well spoken, Bruce, er... TropicalAnalyst. Yes, of course all the models and forecasters know nothing about, after 20 years of studying it, the effects of dry air surrounding a tropical system, or that it exists at all.

Please... at some point down the road, when storm after storm doesn't reach its "predicted" potential, at least give a small thought to human technologies and potentials being the cause of such "anomalies".

Honestly, as a very erudite and knowledgeable meteorologist (I follow your comments a lot), I would not expect you to even remotely accept the possibility of such a thing. That's because, if true, all that you know, hope to know, and have studied, suddenly becomes a bit moot, as human "obstruction" of such storms ruins your knowledge and forecasting abilities (and that of the models), and makes all that you've studied rather useless in determining the ultimate strength, direction, and effect of tropical storms. :-(

Jo
How do you propose we can modify something as vast and chaotic as the atmosphere?


Nicola Tessla had no problem understanding weather control. He was and is the father of it all!

And they burned most of his papers and dummied down the system so that only the powers that be had that information!

Now we have been seeing the results of all of that research...by the US Gov as well as the Russian gov and for what?

They have filtered all the radar sites that we as civilians can access now. Used to be able to see the scalar signatures as recently as Katrina and Wilma...not anymore!

Satellites as well.


Quoting 318. TropicalAnalystwx13:


How do you propose we can modify something as vast and chaotic as the atmosphere? Step away from the conspiracy websites and join the rest of us in reality.


*raises hand*

I know, we could pump millions of tons of CO2 into the ocean and atmosphere. Maybe that'll change the system.

:)
Quoting Randrewl:
How do you propose we can modify something as vast and chaotic as the atmosphere?


Nicola Tessla had no problem understanding weather control. He was and is the father of it all!

And they burned most of his papers and dummied down the system so that only the powers that be had that information!

Now we have been seeing the results of all of that research...by the US Gov as well as the Russian gov and for what?

They have filtered all the radar sites that we as civilians can access now. Used to be able to see the scalar signatures as recently as Katrina and Wilma...not anymore!

Satellites as well.



Tell me you're joking. You have over 31,000 posts on here, claim to understand weather forecasting to some degree, and you believe Tesla was the father of weather modification, but only the PTB know about his secret work, before they burned his papers? Scalar signatures? Totally bizarre.
Quoting flibinite:
Hear, hear, well spoken, Bruce, er... TropicalAnalyst. Yes, of course all the models and forecasters know nothing about, after 20 years of studying it, the effects of dry air surrounding a tropical system, or that it exists at all.

Please... at some point down the road, when storm after storm doesn't reach its "predicted" potential, at least give a small thought to human technologies and potentials being the cause of such "anomalies".

Honestly, as a very erudite and knowledgeable meteorologist (I follow your comments a lot), I would not expect you to even remotely accept the possibility of such a thing. That's because, if true, all that you know, hope to know, and have studied, suddenly becomes a bit moot, as human "obstruction" of such storms ruins your knowledge and forecasting abilities (and that of the models), and makes all that you've studied rather useless in determining the ultimate strength, direction, and effect of tropical storms. :-(

Jo

We just had two storms in the eastern Pacific that did exactly as forecast. Arthur was about as close to forecast as we are able to do now. Neoguri was a bust. That's not bad. Of course, if you seriously believe all this claptrap, there's not much else I can say, since fixed delusions are normally never changed.
Quoting 325. Astrometeor:



*raises hand*

I know, we could pump millions of tons of CO2 into the ocean and atmosphere. Maybe that'll change the system.

:)

Not in our favor. :)
Quoting sar2401:

Tell me you're joking. You have over 31,000 posts on here, claim to understand weather forecasting to some degree, and you believe Tesla was the father of weather modification, but only the PTB know about his secret work, before they burned his papers? Scalar signatures? Totally bizarre.



No, I am not joking.
If you have never seen this quote from William Cohen...then Secretary of Defense you truly have missed something in your weather education!


"Others [terrorists] are engaging even in an eco-type of terrorism whereby they can alter the climate, set off earthquakes, volcanoes remotely through the use of electromagnetic waves… So there are plenty of ingenious minds out there that are at work finding ways in which they can wreak terror upon other nations…It's real, and that's the reason why we have to intensify our [counterterrorism] efforts." *

Secretary of Defense William Cohen at an April 1997 counterterrorism conference sponsored by former Senator Sam Nunn. Quoted from DoD News Briefing, Secretary of Defense William S. Cohen, Q&A at the Conference on Terrorism, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and U.S. Strategy, University of Georgia, Athens, Apr. 28, 1997.
Debunked!

Debunked: "Others are engaging even in an eco- type of terrorism"



Cohen was talking at a conference about the time and resources wasted by false or imaginary terrorist threats, and for examples he listed some speculative threats by Alvin Toffler, a futurist writer.
Youtube with William Cohen. About 4 minutes in.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NoUmgv7pip0
Please, sar... tell me that *you're* joking. Tell me how any government could "announce" such technologies? I mean, could the U.S. announce that they have such capabilities, and that they suppressed Dean and Felix for long enough that they could smash into Belize rather than the U.S.. That they could let the Isle of Youth take 140 mph winds from Gustav before "finally" banging at it in the Gulf to protect our country and not theirs?

The same as for TropicalAnalyst and Korithe, I love your posts, sar, but you have to know that if the U.S. has access to such technologies, they'd have to stay hush-hush because of the "not us, but you" ramifications for using and implementing such things.

I mean, outside of the "cheap" explanation of "land friction", why is it such a constant that tropical storms seem to strengthen right before landfall (i.e., Ike) other than that we can't bang at them anymore from the sea, as that would probably crush onshore electrical systems if we "shoot" at tropical storms from the sea, inland?

Jo
Quoting DonnieBwkGA:
Debunked!

Debunked: "Others are engaging even in an eco- type of terrorism"



Cohen was talking at a conference about the time and resources wasted by false or imaginary terrorist threats, and for examples he listed some speculative threats by Alvin Toffler, a futurist writer.


Good grief! Your debunk site is a Government site!

Please...
Huh? metabunk.org is not a government site, Randrewl.
CBC News is a Free Canadian newspaper and website.


Link
Quoting 332. flibinite:

Please, sar... tell me that *you're* joking. Tell me how any government could "announce" such technologies? I mean, could the U.S. announce that they have such capabilities, and that they suppressed Dean and Felix for long enough that they could smash into Belize rather than the U.S.. That they could let the Isle of Youth take 140 mph winds from Gustav before "finally" banging at it in the Gulf to protect our country and not theirs?

The same as for TropicalAnalyst and Korithe, I love your posts, sar, but you have to know that if the U.S. has access to such technologies, they'd have to stay hush-hush because of the "not us, but you" ramifications for using and implementing such things.

I mean, outside of the "cheap" explanation of "land friction", why is it such a constant that tropical storms seem to strengthen right before landfall (i.e., Ike) other than that we can't bang at them anymore from the sea, as that would probably crush onshore electrical systems if we "shoot" at tropical storms from the sea, inland?

Jo

Katrina, Rita, Ivan, Dennis all had that non-existent southern eye wall phenomenon at landfall.

If they started doing this modification in 2004 or before though, they really failed with Charley, Jeanne, and Wilma. But after 2005, I can't think of a storm hitting the US that was both able to seemingly freely strengthen approaching landfall or not degrade before landfall; and then there's that phenomenon with storms like Isaac, Gustav, and Ike where it looked like marbles were stuck in the center of the storm preventing a clear eye to form (which of course is very necessary for a storm to solidly strengthen).
And good lord, sar... dismiss me with your certainty that such things cannot exist, that they're a delusion, when tropical storm after tropical storm "proves" I might be right, and you might be wrong. That's very intellectual, isn't it?

Again, I would not expect you to accept such a thing, as it basically negates everything you've studied and learned and expressed over the past few years to accurately predict when, and how much, tropical storms will consolidate and intensify.

I *know* I could be wrong about this. I only ask that you keep the same open mind, given the failures of the models and forecasters over the past eight years.

Jo
It sounds as if you're agreeing with me, opal, or the possibilities of what I'm suggesting. I'm not quite sure, though, sorry.

Jo
Lots of magical thinking tonight
340. JRRP
Quoting JRRP:



LMAO JRRP!


Quoting sar2401:

Tell me you're joking. You have over 31,000 posts on here, claim to understand weather forecasting to some degree, and you believe Tesla was the father of weather modification, but only the PTB know about his secret work, before they burned his papers? Scalar signatures? Totally bizarre.
Certain elements of the story are true. The FBI did take Tesla's papers after his death. They've never released them. This sort of thing can become a legend, or the basis of a crank theory. Similarly, the Feds did experiment with silver iodide seeding in tropical storms and cyclones in the 1960s. They didn't announce the program to the public before undertaking these experiments. There are other examples, such as the Tuskegee STD experiments that give credence to the possibility of secret actions being taken by the PTB and sometimes not being ever admitted to by the same.

My judgment ? Not totally bizarre. But as with Area 51, there will be myths, legends and disinformation spread to keep the public befuddled or in the dark about how black budgets are spent.

In the meantime, I just enjoy the music....


Quoting 338. flibinite:

It sounds as if you're agreeing with me, opal, or the possibilities of what I'm suggesting. I'm not quite sure, though, sorry.

Jo

I entertain the idea, and I no doubt believe that people are working hard to figure it out, but as of now, probably not.
Nah.....This one!


I grew up in the 50's and 60,s...My mind is just not as controlled as most of you younger persons. It's not your fault but different generations have different offerings to the future.

Take what you will but don't deny the whole.

So easy to dismiss, isn't it, SunnyDayFl, as you obviously know everything there is to know about current technologies and possibilities, huh? Tell me, how do you explain the relentless inaccuracies of global models and forecasters of tropical storm development over the past 6-8 years?

Not meaning to be mean, but really, when 2 out of 3 estimates of strength and timing of development the last many years are wrong, what do you attribute that to? Crummy models? Stupid forecasters?

I'd like to know, as your probable comments about us "not knowing enough yet" are just as vague and ephemerous as mine are about are about possible human intervention in such storms.

Jo

Quoting Randrewl:
Nah.....This one!


I was trying to keep the selection weather related, donchaknow. :)




Thanks, opal, and I agree, for the most part.

It's those who've really studied tropical storms who don't dare really "think outside the box", as it would be so extremely difficult for them to believe that everything they've learned and studied might no longer be in effect. :-(

Jo
Quoting 346. flibinite:

So easy to dismiss.

Jo


It is easy to dismiss. All it is, really, is an energy equation. Weather patterns, and the storms that follow, convert enormous amounts of energy. I've heard of estimates that Katrina was pumping the equivalent of a Hiroshima bomb every 5 seconds. That's an insane amount of energy.

If we had the capability to control weather, we would be doing much better than we are now. I doubt the US Government would choose to flimsily steer storms over improving the USA back into a significant world power.

@Randrewl,

No offense, sir, but some of us young minds are not as "controlled" as you like to believe, especially since the late 30s-50s are known as the rise of propaganda and socialist movements.

We are very open to new ideas, however, we are critical of ideas which lack no solid evidence. Storms "acting weird" is hardly a notion to support geoengineering, especially with our short database of knowledge on these storms.

----

Good night to the blog.
Quoting flibinite:
Please, sar... tell me that *you're* joking. Tell me how any government could "announce" such technologies? I mean, could the U.S. announce that they have such capabilities, and that they suppressed Dean and Felix for long enough that they could smash into Belize rather than the U.S.. That they could let the Isle of Youth take 140 mph winds from Gustav before "finally" banging at it in the Gulf to protect our country and not theirs?

The same as for TropicalAnalyst and Korithe, I love your posts, sar, but you have to know that if the U.S. has access to such technologies, they'd have to stay hush-hush because of the "not us, but you" ramifications for using and implementing such things.

I mean, outside of the "cheap" explanation of "land friction", why is it such a constant that tropical storms seem to strengthen right before landfall (i.e., Ike) other than that we can't bang at them anymore from the sea, as that would probably crush onshore electrical systems if we "shoot" at tropical storms from the sea, inland?

Jo

You and your friend are clearly nuts. I have enough crazy people to deal with in real life. I have neither time nor inclination to do so on the internet. Goodbye.
Quoting Astrometeor:


It is easy to dismiss. All it is, really, is an energy equation. Weather patterns, and the storms that follow, convert enormous amounts of energy. I've heard of estimates that Katrina was pumping the equivalent of a Hiroshima bomb every 5 seconds. That's an insane amount of energy.

If we had the capability to control weather, we would be doing much better than we are now. I doubt the US Government would choose to flimsily steer storms over improving the USA back into a significant world power.

@Randrewl,

No offense, sir, but some of us young minds are not as "controlled" as you like to believe, especially since the late 30s-50s are known as the rise of propaganda and socialist movements.

We are very open to new ideas, however, we are critical of ideas which lack no solid evidence. Storms "acting weird" is hardly a notion to support geoengineering, especially with our short database of knowledge on these storms.

----

Good night to the blog.

GN, Astro. The really scary part is that people like this might be behind you in line at Walmart. :-)
Quoting sar2401:

I also grew up in the 50's. The vast majority of us who did don't believe in chemtrails and scalar technologies controlling hurricanes. Something apparently went wrong with you. You are about to enter the dark world of the "Ignore" button. Enjoy your trip.



Nah...you won't do that to me Sar. I have faith in you. I know you can change your mind after a given amount of research.

Nobody is saying everything is controlled...just at certain times and or places. And I can always see it while it's happening. I just know what to look for.

if news sources weren't being controlled, they wouldn't be around today. quid pro quo, dear, u help me survive, i'll help u grow. get it?
Wow, sar... so small-minded, when one gets right down to it. So you actually do completely, and without question, know what current technologies are capable of? You really know why so many forecasts of tropical intensity are inaccurate? You know absolutely why the U.S. hasn't been hit by a major hurricane in so very long?

I wish I had your certainty, truly. I wish I knew as much as you definitively do about the why of everything tropical.

Well, actually, I thought you were more open to "different" thoughts, given your previous posts, from your obvious uncertainty and confusion of why Neoguri didn't do anything the models or forecasters felt that it would.

But apparently, you've "learned" too much to realize what you might not be aware of. Again, I may be totally wrong and you may be totally correct, but I must admit that it bugs me that you're not open enough to even possibly believe the inverse.

Jo
Quoting Randrewl:
if news sources weren't being controlled, they wouldn't be around today. quid pro quo, dear, u help me survive, i'll help u grow. get it?


We have freedom of the press. If the news was being controlled there wouldn't be so many crazy conspiracy sites out there!

I don't count Dr. Master's blog as a crazy conspiracy site. Linking to Dr. Master's blog and calling it "Historical Background of Scalar EM Weapons" -- no comment.
Hey now, Dr. Masters is an extremely intelligent forecaster as are so many others.

He draws people into this site but with us squabbling over stuff most don't believe we are not supporting his blog design.

I'll never post anything more on this subject again.
Questions and unbiased investigations into the "why" of things should always be a reasonable platform for debate and discussion in this blog, Randrewl (as I hope to god that Dr. Masters, et. al. agree), and to simply step away because of unsupportable cynicism and abuse from others is not the way to go here.

Again, any of us might be wrong, or right, depending on what history eventually shows, but that doesn't mean we should simply step aside, and away, because others somehow "know better".

The Sun doesn't circle around the Earth anymore, after all, even though that was consensus opinion hundreds of years ago.

Jo
Not a good sign when a random area of convection in the ITCZ has a more concentrated area of strong winds than what's supposed to be a tropical cyclone:

Also, I see we're back on weather modification.

Evidence people, evidence. We're on a scientific site. Why forgo scientific thought processes in favor of stupid conspiracy theories?
It's a good thing that I stepped away for a bit after I made my blog post. Someone makes a comment that Neoguri and Fausto are mysteriously falling apart in seemingly favorable conditions. Then we get a whole page advertising that both storms are weakening due to government weather control. It never ceases to amaze me how stupid people can be, especially on a scientific website. Protip: you either utilize the scientific method fully when it pertains to scientific topics, or you don't utilize it at all. There's no middle ground. Protip #2: science doesn't operate under assumptions. That includes the ridiculous inane weather modification theory. It's an unfortunate snare. "I can't think of an immediate explanation, therefore weather modification". lulz

In Fausto's case specifically (Neoguri weakened because of internal core processes leading to dry air entrainment, so I'm not even going to touch on that), none of the models had forecast any development of the area; its genesis was abrupt and entirely unexpected. If the government was going to premeditate an attempt to modify the storm away from Hawaii, they would have had to defy the models and operate under the assumption that it was going to develop anyway, taking a huge risk and expending a lot of time and money on a crapshoot. Do you not see how elaborate and outlandish that is?

Protip #3: if your retarded conspiracy theories sound too good to be true, they probably are. If you have to stack assumption on top of assumption in order to validate yourself, you're already outside the realm of science (and again, weather is... *gasp* science!).

Science 101. You're welcome.

And no, I'm not being respectful. Of course I'm not. I am no longer the nice guy I was two years ago. I am not obligated to respect opinions that aren't backed up by evidence or science... at least if the topic in question pertains to science. You have a different taste from music than me? Fine. I'll respect that. You claim to have a dragon living behind you? Definitely not gonna respect that.
Looks like Fausto will bring atleast some excitement and change from our current boring trade wind weather. Hopefully the models keep trending towards more enhanced moisture making it up all the way the island chain. At the same time I hope this isn't a sign of what's to come as we head into our active period
Quoting 365. abcdeer:

Looks like Fausto will bring atleast some excitement and change from our current boring trade wind weather. Hopefully the models keep trending towards more enhanced moisture making it up all the way the island chain. At the same time I hope this isn't a sign of what's to come as we head into our active period


I still want a chance to forecast a Hawaii hurricane. Flossie was close, but ultimately no cigar.
Not trying to pick nits, but Neoguri is more accurately pronounced nuh-goo-ree. Point of interest, Korea typically names typhoons after animals or insects when it's their turn. I've also been told that Japan tends to pick the names of weak animals in the hopes that the typhoon will be a weak one.
Quoting 366. KoritheMan:



I still want a chance to forecast a Hawaii hurricane. Flossie was close, but ultimately no cigar.
hopefully you won't have to but your chances are decent this year. Flossie actually started looking pretty Flossie as she neared but then dry air and shear decoupled her. Her mid level vort had some affect over the eastern end but otherwise it was cloudy trade winds
Quoting 368. abcdeer:

hopefully you won't have to but your chances are decent this year. Flossie actually started looking pretty Flossie as she neared but then dry air and shear decoupled her. Her mid level vort had some affect over the eastern end but otherwise it was cloudy trade winds


Yeah dude. Hawaii would be way too boring for me to live at, lol. Vacation, maybe, but not live. I'm in Louisiana and if there's not an annual cyclone threat there's at least severe weather to speak of.

Quoting DonnieBwkGA:


We have freedom of the press. If the news was being controlled there wouldn't be so many crazy conspiracy sites out there!
We have the First Amendment, but do we have a press that acts accordingly? Freedom of the press is a nice conceit. What we have in America today is an entirely different system of official stenography.

Here's a case in point. LINK

As you can readily see from this article, the White House easily controls the message the public receives via the media today.
And where is your scientific evidence that they're not being "manipulated", Korinthe? I mean, every scientific, knowledgeable model and forecaster, given the perfect conditions for Neoguri, said it would be a much more intense, long-lasting cyclone than it ever proved to be.

So tell me, where is *your* scientific evidence that some outside force wasn't used to influence it. And I don't mean after-the-fact rationalizations about "dry air", as my theory would "create" said dry air, whereas your models and experts didn't come up with that until, again, after-the-fact.

Again, I say clearly that I could be wrong. How about dropping a bit of your, and other's, arrogance and say that, given you don't know why everyone was wrong in their predictions of Neoguri, and Gustav, and so many other hurricanes/cyclones, that you have no idea what forces came into play with their "failures", and that my theory has almost as much possibility of being correct as yours does.

What is your explanation again for the U.S. not taking many hits, and no Cat 3's or larger at all (discounting a re-analysis of Ike, which totally fits my "theory" more than any of yours, anyway) in years and years?

Jo
Fausto down to TD.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062014
200 AM PDT WED JUL 09 2014

Fausto has continued to lose organization overnight. The deep
convection associated with the tropical cyclone has become
disorganized and appears to be separated from the center that was
tracked in the last few visible satellite images. Recent ASCAT
data suggest that the circulation has become elongated from
northeast to southwest and that it has possibly become an open
trough of low pressure. The highest believable winds from the
ASCAT passes were 25 to 30 kt to the northeast of the alleged
center. Based on these data, the initial intensity is reduced to
30 kt.

Despite being located in a low shear environment and over warm
water, Fausto has likely weakened during the past 24 hours due to
the entrainment of dry mid-level air. Although Fausto is forecast
to remain over warm water and in low shear for another 24 hours,
poor thermodynamic factors should prevent restrengthening. After
that time, westerly shear is forecast to increase which should
cause the final demise of Fausto, if it does not occur sooner. One
very possible scenario is for the circulation to dissipate and
become an open trough within the next 24 hours. This solution
is generally favored by the GFS and ECMWF models.

The somewhat uncertain initial motion estimate is 285 degrees at 16
kt. Fausto should continue moving west-northwestward to westward
during the next several days to the south of a strong low- to
mid-level ridge. The track guidance agrees on this scenario but has
shifted southward this cycle. Since the updated NHC intensity
forecast predicts a weaker and shallower system, it is more likely
that Fausto or its remnants will move more westward. As a result,
the NHC track has been adjusted southward.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 11.4N 128.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 11.9N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 12.5N 134.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 13.0N 137.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 13.5N 140.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/0600Z 14.5N 145.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
GFS slams a strong Typhoon (Now 92W) into Taiwan.


Quoting KoritheMan:
It never ceases to amaze me how stupid people can be, especially on a scientific website.

Science 101. You're welcome.

And no, I'm not being respectful.
Kori,

While I find myself in general agreement with your views here, there's one aspect that I think you have over-stepped the mark. That is with regard to the fact that the U.S. government has clearly engaged in weather modification attempts with regard to hurricanes in the past. This was called Project Stormfury. This was science. This was real. This was really not discussed with the public until much after the fact. Government Conspiracy? You be the judge. :)

Yes, it would be good if those on this thread claiming human intervention in the collapse of storms such as Typhoon Neoguri or Faustus would provide evidence for human intervention rather than mere speculation.

But I believe one should keep an open mind to the fact that the U.S. government maintains black budgets on the order of $60 Billion per annum. While most of this will simply be explained as theft from the public, there is no doubt that some of this money does end up going into crazy experiments like weather modification as a tool of war among many other things the government would rather keep the public in the dark about.

I don't agree that those spouting "conspiracy!" are always, 100% to be shot down. The mere fact that the U.S. government (along with Qatar and KSA) continues to fund the Islamic Caliphate should be enough of a clue to Americans that conspiracies, big, idiotic nonsensical conspiracies are all too often what this government is all about.

***
That said, it's no conspiracy that today is sizing up to be a day of possible mayhem at the Tour de France. Today they ride over the infamous cobblestone sections, with a 90% chance of rain. Ugh! This could be as brutal.

Respectfully yours, & etc.

Quoting 371. flibinite:

And where is your scientific evidence that they're not being "manipulated", Korinthe? I mean, every scientific, knowledgeable model and forecaster, given the perfect conditions for Neoguri, said it would be a much more intense, long-lasting cyclone than it ever proved to be.
Our knowledge of tropical cyclone intensity change (and meteorology in general, actually) is still rudimentary. We've come far, but not far enough. Why does there need to be any other explanation aside from that?




So tell me, where is *your* scientific evidence that some outside force wasn't used to influence it. And I don't mean after-the-fact rationalizations about "dry air", as my theory would "create" said dry air, whereas your models and experts didn't come up with that until, again, after-the-fact.

Neoguri was pulled toward Japan by a trough to the west and the subtropical ridge to the east. You aren't going to find an absence of dry air on the backside of a trough. That's literally the way physics works. Further, Neoguri appears to be a larger than average typhoon that expectantly grew in size at it progressively gained latitude. Large circulations are notorious for pulling in dry continental air, of which there was plenty over China, again due to the subsident influence of the upper trough.


Quoting 371. flibinite:



Again, I say clearly that I could be wrong. How about dropping a bit of your, and other's, arrogance and say that, given you don't know why everyone was wrong in their predictions of Neoguri, and Gustav, and so many other hurricanes/cyclones, that you have no idea what forces came into play with their "failures", and that my theory has almost as much possibility of being correct as yours does.
Being evidential =/= arrogance.

And... no. Just no. A completely unscientific conspiracy theory is objectively of less merit than a scientific one. Even if, in your theory, these supposed "submarines" can "create" dry air, riddling an illogical conspiracy theory that is ultimately founded on assumptions with a couple scientific terms does not make the theory suddenly become credible... or scientific.

I could be wrong, but given what we know of the atmosphere and its involvement in the Earth's weather (which again is still rudimentary), I doubt it's especially likely that I am. If basing my paradigms and perspectives off evidence qualifies as "arrogance", then I will embrace that label with a smile.

Ruminate on this for me, Jo: if something were truly amiss with the known inner workings of the atmosphere, wouldn't forecasters have highlighted it by now? At least some of them?


What is your explanation again for the U.S. not taking many hits, and no Cat 3's or larger at all (discounting a re-analysis of Ike, which totally fits my "theory" more than any of yours, anyway) in years and years?
Stop being so US centric. It's one country out of a hyperbolic million. Those other countries have taken plenty of major hurricane hits. See also: Arthur. Not a major hurricane, but the first Category 2 since Ike. Why didn't the government prevent that one? Did we forget to power up the submarine because it was the fourth of July and we were busy with family obligations?

Why does there need to be an explanation? We have a very finite amount of records for something that's obviously much larger. This could have happened in the distant past... possibly with an even greater dearth.

"I don't have an explanation, therefore my theory is automatically valid" is a fallacious line of reasoning. Let's not fall victim to certain facets of religious mentality.
This is really NOT a science or scientific site my friend.


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Quoting 319. JLPR2:

Yay, more dust! ¬_¬


It will soon calm down if not.
Quoting 374. rayduray2013:


Kori,

While I find myself in general agreement with your views here, there's one aspect that I think you have over-stepped the mark. That is with regard to the fact that the U.S. government has clearly engaged in weather modification attempts with regard to hurricanes in the past. This was called Project Stormfury. This was science. This was real. This was really not discussed with the public until much after the fact. Government Conspiracy? You be the judge. :)

Yes, it would be good if those on this thread claiming human intervention in the collapse of storms such as Typhoon Neoguri or Faustus would provide evidence for human intervention rather than mere speculation.

But I believe one should keep an open mind to the fact that the U.S. government maintains black budgets on the order of $60 Billion per annum. While most of this will simply be explained as theft from the public, there is no doubt that some of this money does end up going into crazy experiments like weather modification as a tool of war among many other things the government would rather keep the public in the dark about.

I don't agree that those spouting "conspiracy!" are always, 100% to be shot down. The mere fact that the U.S. government (along with Qatar and KSA) continues to fund the Islamic Caliphate should be enough of a clue to Americans that conspiracies, big, idiotic nonsensical conspiracies are all too often what this government is all about.

***
That said, it's no conspiracy that today is sizing up to be a day of possible mayhem at the Tour de France. Today they ride over the infamous cobblestone sections, with a 90% chance of rain. Ugh! This could be as brutal.

Respectfully yours, & etc.

It's not impossible that the government is modifying the weather (beyond obvious things like cloud seeding, which is well known). I find it unlikely though, because there's no evidence. It's not up to the skeptics to prove anything, because we're not asserting anything.

And no, I thought about Project Stormfury, I just neglected to mention it.

I'm also of the opinion that our government is ultimately too incompetent to keep such a big secret hidden for so long. If not for Snowden, I'm pretty sure the NSA would have been exposed eventually anyway.

Quoting 376. Randrewl:

This is really NOT a science or scientific site my friend.


Together We Know More

The beating heart of our brand is the generous and passionate community of weather enthusiasts that share weather data and content across our products. With over 34,000 of our members sending real-time data from their own personal weather stations, they provide us with the extensive data that makes our forecasts and products so unique.

Weather site = science site.
380. MahFL
Quoting 312. GTstormChaserCaleb:
... I hope the money that they raised in Brazil will be put into good use to continue to build up the infrastructure of this developing country.


It won't, they had too many strikes/protests they abandoned completing the transport infrastructure as they ran out of time. They are unlikely to proceed after the World Cup is over.
Quoting KoritheMan:

Weather site = science site.



Whatever you say man...it must be the truth!

Quoting 381. Randrewl:




Whatever you say man...it must be the truth!


It is the truth, but it has nothing to do with me.

Try looking at the intrinsic nature of weather. It's not subjective. Opinions within it certainly are, but the actual science itself is not.
This is not a scientific site or blog!

It is a blogging community for those that enjoy weather and the outdoors!

That's all this is.

You must be in the wrong place.


Quoting 383. Randrewl:

This is not a scientific site or blog!

It is a blogging community for those that enjoy weather and the outdoors!

That's all this is.

You must be in the wrong place.


Our blogs don't have to be about weather, but at least on Jeff's blog, it is scientific. That comes with scientific opinions backed by evidence.

Otherwise, GTFO.
385. beell
.
Good Morning all..a little something to lighten up the blog..

later..work calls..


models beyond a wk are pretty much useless. most accept this. so why do characters look at long term windshear maps and then assume and then post there is going to be nothing to mid august?
I've found something that helps at times when the blog transcends to those areas ... well you know ...


Quoting KoritheMan:
It's not impossible that the government is modifying the weather (beyond obvious things like cloud seeding, which is well known). I find it unlikely though, because there's no evidence. It's not up to the skeptics to prove anything, because we're not asserting anything.

And no, I thought about Project Stormfury, I just neglected to mention it.

I'm also of the opinion that our government is ultimately too incompetent to keep such a big secret hidden for so long. If not for Snowden, I'm pretty sure the NSA would have been exposed eventually anyway.
Again,  I find myself in general agreement. I see no signs of weather modification efforts by the Navy in the GOM for instance. Though there are indications of high-energy microwaves being used by the Navy for possible monitoring purposes which are not divulged to the public.

I know of no successor program to Project Stormfury, but I'm certain that the DoD has some plans on the shelf for the contingency we might want to mess with the Cubans or the Venezuelans with bad weather. It's just the low hanging fruit the Pentagon planners love to spend our tax dollars on.

As to the meme that the government is "too incompetent" to keep the public in the dark, I will disagree with you on this. The government has remained competent enough to still maintain secrets in the National Archives that date back to the Civil War. Probably to protect the reputations of scoundrels like J.P. Morgan, but whatever these secrets are, I detect zero incompetence in keeping the people in the dark. Similarly, I have a suspicion that the percentage of the American public in July, 1945 who were fully informed of the advances made with the Manhattan project was vanishingly small. Even people employed at Hanford or Oakridge had no particular "big picture" understanding of what they were doing separating heavy element isotopes.

So, no, I don't buy the government incompetence meme.

I actually have more of a profound disappointment about the fact that in the recent past, say five years, we can count the number of whistleblowers who have had a dramatic national impact on the fingers of two hands. This in comparison with the 4.8 million or so Americans who have some level of security clearance. Where are the ones willing to expose the corruption and criminality of our government? Apparently all living in fear of losing a pension or status. The courage of the American elite to tell the truth has never been more in doubt.
Quoting 371. flibinite:

And where is your scientific evidence that they're not being "manipulated", Korinthe? I mean, every scientific, knowledgeable model and forecaster, given the perfect conditions for Neoguri, said it would be a much more intense, long-lasting cyclone than it ever proved to be.

So tell me, where is *your* scientific evidence that some outside force wasn't used to influence it. And I don't mean after-the-fact rationalizations about "dry air", as my theory would "create" said dry air, whereas your models and experts didn't come up with that until, again, after-the-fact.

Again, I say clearly that I could be wrong. How about dropping a bit of your, and other's, arrogance and say that, given you don't know why everyone was wrong in their predictions of Neoguri, and Gustav, and so many other hurricanes/cyclones, that you have no idea what forces came into play with their "failures", and that my theory has almost as much possibility of being correct as yours does.

What is your explanation again for the U.S. not taking many hits, and no Cat 3's or larger at all (discounting a re-analysis of Ike, which totally fits my "theory" more than any of yours, anyway) in years and years?

Jo


If YOU want to convince others of your absurd theory, it has to be YOUR job to support your theory with scientific evidence, not ours. The fact that the U.S. haven't been hit by any major hurricanes for nearly a decade is certainly not evidence at all. We know that the U.S. is hit by roughly 0.5 major hurricanes every year. Although a decade-long stretch without a hit is definitely a somewhat unusual occurrence, it is fully covered by the nature of statistic probability. If you flip a coin over and over again, you will have heads ten times in a row once in a while. Whether the U.S. is hit by a major hurricane is certainly not just a coin flip, as this probability is being influenced by numerous patterns. I heard that it is being speculated that a change in atmospheric patterns linked to global warming could be responsible for the recent lack of landfalling hurricanes, however, it is simply too early to jump to conclusions at this point as it could also just be statistical variance.

Also, there are some major inconsistencies within your arguments. You are claiming that the government is able to prevent hurricanes from making landfall (hence no major hurricane since 2005) and cause abrupt weakening if a cyclone is due to make landfall (Ike, Debby,...). If so, why did the almighty government not prevent Hurricane Sandy from causing such epic destruction? They even care for a weak T.S. in the middle of the Pacific (Fausto), so why would a hurricane, which had its track and intensity being pinpointed by models days in advance, strengthen right before landfall? Assuming that Neoguri was being manipulated, why weren't Typhoons Bopha or Haiyan?

Beyond that, if the U.S. government did possess the ability to control tropical cyclones, they would probably also be able to end or at least mitigate the exceptional drought currently affecting some states. Why not send some weak tropical storms into the region and bring some rain? Drought is causing WAY more economic damage than any hurricane, so my guess is that the government wouldn't hesitate to take action here if they could. 

Take some time and think about how scientific your theory is, especially before you accuse others of being narrow-minded again. Otherwise you really can't expect being respected by anyone. 


I prefer the captain's hat.


All this conspiracy nonsense is just that. There is no evidence to support any of the claims. Often, humans explain and rationalize our lack of understanding of things by thinking that it MUST exist in a state so far beyond our normative thought that we create overly complex solutions that draw on our own or others preconceived notions. That is why government conspiracy is so prevalent.

The reality is those storms fell apart for meteorological reasons, some of which are not fully understood as our knowledge in the subject of tropical storm formation and processes isn't complete. That seems much more reasonable than a world wide government conspiracy to modify tropical storms that has gone unknown (and yes Project Stormfury existed, but it wasn't a secret) and undetected.
5 of the 12 known strongest tropical cyclones at landfall have been since 2006. These are:

Haiyan - Philippines 2013 (195 mph)
Megi - Philippines 2010 (180)
Monica - Australia 2006 (180)
Dean - Mexico 2007 (175)
Bopha - Philippines 2012 (175)


Hmm. Looks like this cyclone 'manipulation' technology still needs a lot of work on it.
Quoting 393. yonzabam:

5 of the 12 known strongest tropical cyclones at landfall have been since 2006. These are:

Haiyan - Philippines 2013 (195 mph)
Megi - Philippines 2010 (180)
Monica - Australia 2006 (180)
Dean - Mexico 2007 (175)
Bopha - Philippines 2012 (175)


Hmm. Looks like this cyclone 'manipulation' technology still needs a lot of work on it.


Not evidence, obviously it only works part of the time. American made™. :)
Orlando Mets have it tough. 93-94 degrees, 50% chance of rain, low of 75, every day.


Cyclone Nargis death toll in the tens of thousands
By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:42 AM CDT on May 06, 2008


A disaster of staggering magnitude continues to unfold in Myanmar, where the death toll from Tropical Cyclone Nargis exceeds 22,000. In one city alone--Bogalay, about 50 miles southwest of the capital of Yangon--10,000 people are thought to have died. Bogalay is a decrepit city of 100,000 that lies at the head of a estuary that leads to the sea. No doubt this narrow waterway served to funnel a storm surge over ten feet high into the city. News reports have not yet been received from the coast southeast of Yangon, which also received a significant storm surge, and the toll from Nargis is certain to go much higher.





You haven't seen the repeated morning, pin-point surface sourced plumes of vapor in the GOM that rise up and dry out the feeder bands of some tropical storm systems? I don't think you are looking closely at time series water vapor imagery.

If this whisker is the result of cloud seeding, it looks more like the 'dove in a hole' or jet exhaust precipitation patterns, that would be from a jet drop rather than a ship plume. I'm also basing that on the radar return that only faintly shows the whisker that is so striking from the cloud tops.

Does anybody have an animation of the cloud cliff formation? that might inform the source of the dry gap. With air rotating in one direction at the bottom and spiraling out the other at the top, this is a surprisingly linear feature.
5 killed and 500,000 without power after storms slam New York and Maryland.

Link
Cyclone Nargis death toll in the tens of thousands
By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:42 AM CDT on May 06, 2008


Hello Pat??
I heard that it is being speculated that a change in atmospheric patterns linked to global warming could be responsible for the recent lack of landfalling hurricanes, however, it is simply too early to jump to conclusions at this point as it could also just be statistical variance.

How can someone in the same breath ask a person to provide evidence of weather modification and then state they "heard that its being speculated"..???

5 dayer.

Danger Looms for Japan as Typhoon Neoguri Nears


Link
I'm not talking about steering storms or directing their path, but precipitating gaps in the eyewall to disorganize powerful tropical systems set to make landfall in heavily populated or vulnerable areas...why not? If we can, wouldn't it be criminal not to?
China is not shy about cloud seeding.
I did a short stint with the CIA Operations Directorate in the 1990's and I can assure you that I never encountered any evidence of a conspiracy involving weather modification; the Latin American division included Central and South America and I would have heard something about it.............We cannot "stop" or alter Cape Verde storms.................. :)
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
I did a short stint with the CIA Operations Directorate in the 1990's and I can assure you that I never encountered any evidence of a conspiracy involving weather modification; the Latin American division included Central and South America and I would have heard something about it.............We cannot "stop" or alter Cape Verde storms.................. :)



And you are the weathermanwannabee!

LMAO!!
EP, 06, 2014070912, , BEST, 0, 115N, 1287W, 25, 1007, TD
Quoting 407. fabian171017:



If you follow the discussions on the influence of global warming on Atlantic hurricane activity, you clearly get the consensus that while the activity MIGHT be influenced in whatever direction, is it nothing but speculation at this point. Nonetheless, the overall warming of the planet can't be neglected if you try to find reasons for change in regional weather patterns. Speculation is necessarily involved in such discussions. I deliberately brought this up but clearly stated that it is speculative to distinguish it from my other arguments, contrary to flibinite, who randomly throws in unrelated facts and claims to have a scientific explanation. 


Right, the climate change/tropical storm connection is actively being studied, with hypotheses being tested, rejected, retested, etc. Claims of weather modification are in essence an alternative hypothesis with the null hypothesis being there is no weather modification, in order to accept those claims evidence and proof is needed.

The presupposition made isn't a correct 1 to 1 comparison. You didn't claim there was a connection between climate change and tropical systems, only that research was being done.
410. DDR
Good morning
Some welcomed showers moving into Trinidad and Tobago,not so much the islands north of here.
The SAL in the Caribbean dissipated a little the last few days but another huge plume coming off Africa at the moment:


Quoting 410. DDR:

Good morning
Some welcomed showers moving into Trinidad and Tobago,not so much the islands north of here.
 The showers currently headed in your direction are sliding in under the SAL layer to Your North.
Quoting 409. Naga5000:



Right, the climate change/tropical storm connection is actively being studied, with hypotheses being tested, rejected, retested, etc. Claims of weather modification are in essence an alternative hypothesis with the null hypothesis being there is no weather modification, in order to accept those claims evidence and proof is needed.

The presupposition made isn't a correct 1 to 1 comparison. You didn't claim there was a connection between climate change and tropical systems, only that research was being done.


Claims of weather modification are in essence an alternative hypothesis with the null hypothesis being there is no weather modification Naga, maybe I'm misunderstanding you but are you saying weather modification doesn't exist?

If so, weather modification has been proven and exists..Dr. Masters has even wrote on it with the cloud seeding in California to produce rain..or is cloud seeding not considered part of weather modification because I'm pretty sure that wouldn't be correct..

Also, so you telling me that putting that "seed" out there for everyone to read about climate change and tropical cyclones isn't claiming it because the word speculation was used therefore no evidence was needed however in the same paragraph its okay to ask another blogger to provide proof on his summary which was my question?
Quoting 413. ncstorm:



Claims of weather modification are in essence an alternative hypothesis with the null hypothesis being there is no weather modification Naga, maybe I'm misunderstanding you but are you saying weather modification doesn't exist?

If so, weather modification has been proven and exists..Dr. Masters has even wrote on it with the cloud seeding in California to produce rain..or is cloud seeding not considered part of weather modification because I'm pretty sure that wouldn't be correct..

Also, so you telling me that putting that "seed" out there for everyone to read about climate change and tropical cyclones isn't claiming it because the word speculation was used therefore no evidence was needed however in the same paragraph its okay to ask another blogger to provide proof on his summary which was my question?


I'm saying weather modification of tropical cyclones does not exist. it was attempted and found to not produce any verifiable results. That was the context of this whole conspiracy argument.

As for his claim, there was no claim made, in fact he even stated that it may be statistical variance. Once again, context.
Honestly, NC, I don't want to get into another semantics debate with you, so I'm ending it here.
Quoting 415. Naga5000:

Honestly, NC, I don't want to get into another semantics debate with you, so I'm ending it here.


Sure no problem..you dipped in the conversation and added your two cents..I just wanted to clear it up..

have a good one..
Ric, if you are here...please shed some light on the latest ENSO please:

418. DDR
Quoting weathermanwannabe:

 The showers currently headed in your direction are sliding in under the SAL layer to Your North.

Yup we usually dont see more than 2 days without the SAL,until mid to late August.
Good Morning Class! Cool and Dry to start the day.
Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA (SSSSD)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Wed, 09 Jul 6:32 am (PDT)
Most Recent Observation: Wed, 09 Jul 6:20 am PDT (PDT)
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
09 Jul 6:20 am PDT 65 43 44 S 2G04 OK
Is the tropical wave or Low currently over Mexico supposed to exit in the BOC?..looks to be heading that way..



Quoting weathermanwannabe:
The SAL in the Caribbean dissipated a little the last few days but another huge plume coming off Africa at the moment:



No problem sal peaks in July. Interesting times ahead during the peak of this hurricane season as El Niño looks like a none event. Pretty substantial bust if u ask me.
Bad weather definitely played a role as last year's champion Chris Froome retires from the Tour de France just now. Conditions in NE France could only be worse if there were a snowstorm blowing.
12z Best Track for 92W.

92W INVEST 140709 1200 8.3N 154.1E WPAC 15 1010

This is not a scientific site or blog!

It is a blogging community for those that enjoy weather and the outdoors!

That's all this is.

You must be in the wrong place.


at best....we're about 100 active bloggers...with a plethora of lurkers....who do love the weather and for some strange reason enjoy talking about it more than sports...sex...and politics.....

as for book smarts....very few have met degrees and even fewer have transferred that learning to the met field...with that said though...i would think that most of us do know more about weather than the average person...

the reasons we enjoy weather and our reasons for blogging about it are as varied as our backgrounds....

the toughest part...is weather we like each other...(get it....weather...not whether...that's a pun)...agree with each other....or any other scenarios....chances are...we're not going anywhere....so.....we'll all have to get over it :-)
....chances are...we're not going anywhere....so.....we'll all have to get over it :-)

and we can all go there together...wherever that is?

Quoting LightningCharmer:
I've found something that helps at times when the blog transcends to those areas ... well you know ...

Yet another attempt at government/corporate sponsored DISINFORMATION.

Everyone should be alerted that the deflection foil must be applied with the DULL side to the head, and that it needs to be secured with silver duct-tape for any other type of tape actually channels the incoming control waves directly to your amygdala - the brain centre which controls motivation and emotion.
Quoting 313. flibinite:

... we finally begin to believe that humans are actively intervening in these storm's development and strengthening? :-(

Jo
Active intervention is actually happening -- buying a tankful of gasoline and burning it in an SUV to go to the beach or the mountains for the weekend; running the A/C on high to cool down when the heat gets too much; flying across the country to visit some friends. The addition of the combustion products of the fossil fuels is having a measurable effect, but we don't definitively know what all the effects are yet. I believe one is the tamping down of storm formation in the Atlantic while revving up storm formation in the Western Pacific. This kind of human intervention will cause unintended effects, many of which we won't like.
I find it interesting that on a site with so many who are convinced of human influenced climate change, those same folks have a hard time believing humans can influence tropical systems (which I think every one can agree are much smaller and simpler than global climate)

I don't think HAARP or submarines are influencing t-storms but I do think dyn-o-gel has a lot of potential, and I hope it is being used to save lives and property

It's certainly cheap and easy to deploy
So, the HAARP crowd thinks Obama/DOD/Illuminati/whoever is controlling the weather, but they're climate change deniers, saying humans can't possibly be contributing to climate change.

I'm pretty sure I'm missing something here, but can't quite put my finger on it.

Perfect summer day in Casco Bay.
Quoting 405. weathermanwannabe:
I did a short stint with the CIA Operations Directorate in the 1990's and I can assure you that I never encountered any evidence of a conspiracy involving weather modification; the Latin American division included Central and South America and I would have heard something about it.............We cannot "stop" or alter Cape Verde storms.................. :)


As usual, WW is right on track. I did 4 years as the Senior Special Projects Engineer at SOUTHCOM from 03-07 that bracketed the hurricane "extra innings" season of 2005. There is no top secret weather altering capability, especially by the same incompetent federal government that can't even alter our southern border enough to make people walk through a checkpoint.

As for CONTRAILS, I've made plenty of them by simply flying a jet high enough, and all of you have breathed them if you have flown on an airliner. (Not your own, of course, but the guys who are ahead of you and higher than you on an airway.) You see, airliners suck in the outside air to pressurize and air condition the cabin.

They are quite useful, however, for pilots and other weather non-experts who simply know this: Long, persistent contrails today means high clouds tomorrow. Short, rapidly dissipating cons today means clear skys at high altitude tomorrow. Check it out!
JeffMasters has created a new entry.