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Hurricane Arthur Shifts Left, Aims for a DIrect Hit in Eastern North Carolina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:25 PM GMT on July 03, 2014

Hurricane Arthur has shifted to the left inside its cone of track uncertainty, and is poised to deliver a direct hit to the barrier islands of eastern North Carolina on Thursday night and Friday morning. The hurricane's 90 mph winds and 979 mb pressure from the 5 pm EDT Thursday NHC advisory make Arthur as strong as the strongest hurricane of 2013, Hurricane Humberto. Humberto peaked as a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds and a central pressure of 979 mb as it traversed the waters a few hundred miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa. The strongest winds measured at a buoy today in Arthur were 52 mph, gusting to 67 mph, measured at buoy 41004 offshore from Charleston, SC, at 12:50 pm EDT. Heavy rains from Arthur brought radar-estimated rainfall amounts of 3 - 4" as of 4:30 pm EDT near Wilmington, in southern North Carolina. Radar out of Wilmington shows that Arthur has developed an imposing area of heavy rains, but dry air is still infiltrating its core, creating a large gap in the eyewall. Satellite loops on Thursday afternoon showed a moderate-sized hurricane with a prominent eye surrounded by intense thunderstorms with very cold cloud tops. An excellent outflow channel has developed on the east side, but outflow is still restricted on the west side, where dry air is interfering with the storm. Wind shear a light 5 - 10 knots. Arthur's core has moved north of the axis of the Gulf Stream, and the hurricane is no longer able to take full advantage of the heat energy this narrow ribbon of very warm waters carries.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Arthur, taken at approximately 16:30 UTC (12:30 pm EDT) on Thursday, July 3, 2014. At the time, Arthur was a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Radar out of Wilmington, North Carolina at 4:39 pm EDT July 3, 2014.

Forecast for Arthur
With the eyewall still showing gaps due to dry air infiltration, rapid intensification into a Category 3 hurricane appears unlikely. The 18Z Thursday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear will remain light to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, between now and Friday morning, then rise steeply. The model also predicted a 20% chance of rapid intensification--a 30 mph increase in winds in 24 hours. I put the odds Arthur becoming a Category 3 or stronger storm at 10%. The 5 pm EDT Thursday wind probability forecast from NHC gave Cape Hatteras a 80% chance of experiencing hurricane-force winds, and Morehead City a 92% chance. The 12Z Thursday runs of our top two track models, the GFS and European (ECMWF), showed the eye of Arthur hitting Cape Lookout, North Carolina between midnight and 1 am, with the strongest winds of the eyewall's right front quadrant affecting Cape Hatteras between 3 am - 5am.


Figure 3. Radar-estimated rainfall from Wilmington, North Carolina as of 4:44 pm EDT July 3, 2014.

Arthur's storm surge
Along with wind damage, the biggest threat from Arthur is coastal flooding due to storm surge. A surge of 2 - 5 feet will peak late Thursday night through early Friday morning from Morehead City, NC, to the North Carolina/Virginia border. Low tide will occur near 6:30 - 7 pm EDT Thursday night, and again at 7 - 7:30 am Friday morning. High tide will be between 12:30 - 1:00 am Friday, and this is when the highest water levels (storm tide) will occur along much of the North Carolina coast south of Cape Hatteras, due the combined effect of the storm surge and tide. Tidal range between low and high tide is about 2 feet along much of the North Carolina coast, though it is only about 0.5' along portions of the Outer Banks. Tidal range at the Hatteras USCG station, which isn't far from the lighthouse, is only 0.3', so it doesn't matter much when the surge arrives there. At 4 pm EDT on Thursday, Arthur was bringing a storm surge in excess of one foot to portions of the South Carolina and North Carolina coasts:

1.7' at Oyster Landing, SC
1.6' at Wrightsville Beach, NC
1.3' at Wilmington, NC
1.1' at Beufort, NC
0.8' at Charleston, SC

I highly recommend NHC's Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map to evaluate how high above high tide the storm surge is likely to inundate the coast.


Figure 4. Observed storm surge from previous Category 1 and 2 hurricanes to hit North Carolina. Isabel of 2003 brought the most dangerous surge of these historic storms, since it was a very large storm that took an unusual north-northeasterly track into the coast near the North Carolina/Virginia border. Image credit: Western Carolina University Program for the Study of Developed Shorelines Storm Surge Database.

Arthur's tornadoes
Tornadoes are another threat from Arthur, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded three preliminary tornado sightings in North Carolina between 3:20 and 4:40 pm EDT. A tornado watch continues through 2 am EDT Friday for coastal North Carolina.

Arthur's impact on Canada and New England
As Arthur accelerates northeastwards towards Nova Scotia, Canada, large waves of 4 - 5 feet will begin to pound coastal Massachusetts on Friday night. Sustained tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph and higher are likely on Cape Cod and Nantucket, Massachusetts between 8 pm Friday - 2 am Saturday, and the 5 pm EDT NHC wind probability forecast gave Nantucket an 82% chance of seeing tropical storm-force winds. By 8 am EDT Saturday, Arthur will be merging with a cold front and transitioning to a hurricane-strength extratropical storm, and is expected to make landfall in Nova Scotia later that morning. The 5 pm EDT NHC wind probability forecast gives Halifax, Nova Scotia an 80% chance of seeing tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph or higher, and a 9% chance of hurricane-force winds.

Arthur's formation is not a harbinger of an active hurricane season
The first hurricane of the season typically occurs on August 10, so Arthur is quite a bit ahead of schedule. Arthur was able to form so early because it was over the very warm waters of the Gulf Stream Current, and these waters happened to be over 1°F warmer than usual for this time of year. Formation of a June or July hurricane like Arthur off the U.S. coast is typically not a harbinger of an active hurricane season, since these storms do not form from African tropical waves. Arthur spun up from a cluster of thunderstorms and their associated low pressure system that moved off the Southeast U.S. coast, and hurricanes that get their start this way are typically too far north and too close to land to be able to intensify into major hurricanes. The bigger threat are hurricanes that get their start from tropical waves traversing Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes (from the coast of Africa to Central America between 10° - 20°N, including the Caribbean Sea.) Tropical waves that traverse the MDR are responsible for 85% of all major (Category 3 and stronger) hurricanes. When June and July hurricanes and tropical storms form in the MDR, it usually does portend an active hurricane season, since it shows that atmospheric and oceanic conditions are primed to assist development of tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa during the peak mid-August through mid-October part of hurricane season.

A better way to evaluate whether or not this will be an active hurricane season is to look at sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the MDR, and the status of El Niño. MDR SSTs are currently very close to average, and are thus unlikely to contribute to an above-average hurricane season. The very warm equatorial waters currently off the coast of South America suggest that an El Niño event is in the process of developing. When an El Niño event occurs during hurricane season, it tends to create an atmospheric circulation that brings unusually strong upper-level winds to the tropical Atlantic. These strong winds create a shearing action (wind shear) on any tropical storms or hurricanes that may be attempting to form, disrupting their circulation. Thus, the pre-season predictions of a below-average or near-average hurricane season still look good.

Stay safe tonight, all of you in North Carolina!

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Slow blog eh? I guess a lot of people are just vegging on the 4th. Heading out to finish mowing the lawn!
1502. HCW
AMazing coverage still from Jeff P


Link
There's still a lot of love !

Link
1504. HCW
Quoting 1501. opal92nwf:

Slow blog eh? I guess a lot of people are just vegging on the 4th. Heading out to finish mowing the lawn!


Enjoy the lower humid and when you are done can you drive over and cut mine ? Happy 4th everybody
Happy Independence day Pat and everyone!

There's still a lot of love.


1509. 900MB
Quoting 1479. odinslightning:



look out upper new england states.....you are liable to get tons and tons of rain....probably wont be an Irene situation, but still there may be flooding issues and scattered straight-line wind damage(s) ......be careful, it looks like Arthur wants to decouple and sling crap all up the I-95 corridor while he fishes his way to N.S/Greenland.....

Pool filling up in East Hampton, Long Island. At least 2 inches so far. 5 would not surprise me.
looking at the wu wundermap with pws (personal weather station) ... its amazing how many there are and how they survived those gusts
Quoting Tazmanian:
will time two start looking at are next ch of a name storm for us


Probably won't get Bertha until August or late-July, imo. Right now, in terms of tropical interest, the focus will turn to the WPAC as a Haiyan-type monster could develop if the ECMWF is right.
Quoting 1511. CybrTeddy:



Probably won't get Bertha until August or late-July, imo. Right now, in terms of tropical interest, the focus will turn to the WPAC as a Haiyan-type monster could develop if the ECMWF is right.



what about that area in the bay of camp in the gulfs it looks a lot better today but it looks like its about two run out of time
This was just the storm we wanted. Enough to be a thrill, but not enough to cause major damage.

Happy 4th everyone!

Don't let Arthur fool you into thinking this will be a busy year. Dr. Masters put it best in his blog a day or two ago. A storm like Arthur is not a harbinger of an active season. All indications are that this will still be a very quiet season, and we are unlikely to get another storm until as Cybr said late July or August, and personally I'd lean towards August. Arthur's been a great way to start the season though, real fun to track. Who knows, it could be the highlight of the year for the Atlantic. For now though, sit back and watch the West Pac!

Quoting 1495. opal92nwf:

2014 shattering 2013's max storm intensity right off the bat I think makes it a lot more believable for stronger storms to form this season.

Until we saw a storm stronger than Cat. 1 in 2014, many probably really weren't holding their breath for a major hurricane threatening their area. Now this bubble has been broken.
Pattern looks for bad for the Northeast in Sept.
1517. GatorWX
Morning everyone. I've heard of the ~100mph winds and have seen the sound side surge, but overall, looks like NC came out relatively unscathed. I'm sure there's isolated damage and perhaps areas where it's more widespread that we have yet to hear from. But still, I was expecting worse. Time will tell..

Happy Fourth of July everyone!!! Enjoy your day to the fullest, but don't drink and drive! :) ...no, seriously!

Dig this today at some point!



Now as soon as I click post, there will likely be a new blog. Dr M was likely up pretty late as well though.
Quoting 1515. MAweatherboy1:

Don't let Arthur fool you into thinking this will be a busy year. Dr. Masters put it best in his blog a day or two ago. A storm like Arthur is not a harbinger of an active season. All indications are that this will still be a very quiet season, and we are unlikely to get another storm until as Cybr said late July or August, and personally I'd lean towards August. Arthur's been a great way to start the season though, real fun to track. Who knows, it could be the highlight of the year for the Atlantic. For now though, sit back and watch the West Pac!


Hmm interesting.....
Jeff Piotrowski is broadcasting live again. In Rodanthe surveying damage. If anyone is interested.
In a letter from John Adams to his wife Abigail concerning the Independence Day celebration:

It ought to be solemnized with pomp and parade, with
shows, games, sports, guns, bells, bonfires, and
illuminations, from one end of this continent to the other,
from this time forward forever more.
Quoting 1511. CybrTeddy:



Probably won't get Bertha until August or late-July, imo. Right now, in terms of tropical interest, the focus will turn to the WPAC as a Haiyan-type monster could develop if the ECMWF is right.
1522. Melagoo
LOCATION...37.7N 73.4W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM ESE OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SW OF CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES
Quoting 1511. CybrTeddy:



Probably won't get Bertha until August or late-July, imo. Right now, in terms of tropical interest, the focus will turn to the WPAC as a Haiyan-type monster could develop if the ECMWF is right.
agreed, GFS shows everything being dead the next 16 days. early august is when we should start watching. 2009 managed to produce bill so we will more than likely get a CV hurricane unless this year is like last year which I doubt. still think this year is similar to 2002 in terms of numbers
1524. Melagoo
… and there he goes! Off to the Maritimes specifically Nova Scotia ...

1515. Pretty much. Had Arthur developed from a tropical wave out in the Atlantic and did what it did then that would be an ominous sign for the rest of the season. I'm thinking late-July at the earliest as we can't rule out another trough split system, but we probably won't get out first tropical origin system until August at the earliest. ECMWF is showing very high pressures across the Atlantic for quite some time.
1526. ricderr
on the ENSO front region 3.4 has crossed the El Nino threshold once again......you can see the noise of the last two weeks in the graph below....as high as 1.1 and then dropping to under 0.3 c.......looking at the long term trend however you can see that the threshold of a three month running means at or above 0.5c....is within reach

1527. GatorWX
Hello everyone, just checking in from Cape Cod. We have gotten a few heavy rain bands so far, but nothing too bad yet. Been watching Arthur with a close eye the whole time, but we will be spared the worst of the storm from the current track. We will be prepared if the storm takes a more Westerly track though.
Quoting 1524. Melagoo:

… and there he goes! Off to the Maritimes specifically Nova Scotia ...




10:41 AM ADT Friday 04 July 2014
Wind warning in effect for:
•Halifax Metro and Halifax County West

Strong winds - early morning Saturday to evening Saturday.

Very strong wind gusts that may cause damage are expected or occurring.

LANDFALL OF ARTHUR IS FORECAST TO OCCUR IN SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA
SATURDAY MORNING AS A STRONG POST-TROPICAL STORM.
POST-TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR IS THEN FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA TO LIE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. STRONG WIND IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY FOR MUCH OF THE
MARITIMES WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FORECAST TO GUST TO 100 KM/H OVER
SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA. ELSEWHERE, WINDS GUSTING TO 90 KM/H ARE EXPECTED.

Damage to buildings, such as to roof shingles and windows, may occur. Gusty winds can damage soft shelters, tents and awnings at outdoor events. High winds may toss loose objects or cause tree branches to break.

Wind warnings are issued when there is a significant risk of damaging winds.

Environment Canada meteorologists will update alerts as required. Stay up to date with Weatheradio or your local media. Email reports of severe weather to weatherASPC@ec.gc.ca or call 1-877-815-9900. You may tweet reports using the hashtag #NSStorm.



8:27 AM ADT Friday 04 July 2014
Tropical storm warning in effect for:
•Halifax Metro and Halifax County West

Tropical storm conditions - early morning Saturday to early evening Saturday.

Tropical storm-force winds of 70 gusting to 100 km/h over exposed areas from Hurricane Arthur can be expected over the above regions.

These winds could break tree branches potentially resulting in downed utility lines. Secure loose objects on your property and anticipate power interruptions. Stay away from the shore - the combination of surge and large waves could result in dangerous rip currents and the risk of being pulled out to sea .

A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds near 65 km/h or more) are expected over parts of the region within 24 hours.

By nature a tropical storm also implies the threat of local flooding from heavy rainfall - consult your local area forecast for possible rainfall warnings.

Environment Canada meteorologists at the Canadian Hurricane Centre continue to monitor the storm closely. Stay up to date at weather.gc.ca/hurricane, Weatheradio or your local media. Reports of storm conditions and impacts can be emailed directly to weatherASPC@ec.gc.ca or by tweeting reports by province to #NBStorm, #NSStorm, #PEStorm, #nlwx, #meteoqc or #ONStorm.
1531. sar2401
Quoting Skyepony:
The guy leaning into the wind on the beach while still being able to drink his beer was the most impressive.
Quoting sar2401:
The guy leaning into the wind on the beach while still being able to drink his beer was the most impressive.


That might be me...but I'm still here in FL!

Last 24 of Arthur.
Happy 4th of July to all my American friends and family. A Special Salute to those who have served this Country and is still doing so today by helping to aid the needy in times of disasters and other trying situations.

1536. GatorWX
Quoting 1512. Skyepony:




Nice "view stealing" cover image they used. ;)
Quoting PedleyCA:

Last 24 of Arthur.



That is so cool!

Quoting 1524. Melagoo

Classy gentleman Arthur is. Handsome, relatively harmless, great into to 2014.
Amazing the track was nearly dead on perfect from the NHC. Props to them and the models for calling this one, and special shout out to Grothar too.

Anyone heard about the damage caused by Arthur in NC yet?

Good Morning Class! Seems a bit on the muggy side in Sooo Cal 81 Degrees and 45% Humidity....Blahhhhh........

Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA (SSSSD)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Fri, 04 Jul 8:15 am (PDT)
Most Recent Observation: Fri, 04 Jul 8:00 am PDT (PDT)
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
04 Jul 8:00 am PDT 81 58 45 SE 10G18 OK
1542. GatorWX
Quoting 1534. PedleyCA:


Last 24 of Arthur.


I only saw what Barbamz posted, never bothered looking at microwave myself. Not too overly impressive. Interesting system to watch.
Quoting 1540. Articuno:

Anyone heard about the damage caused by Arthur in NC yet?




From what I have seen on TV it's minimal. 44,000 power out, Highway 12? Closed, Beach erosion
if I was to guess where any action would come from in the next ten days I would watch the BOC as the ITCZ is splitting energy and spiting storms into the area.... Happy 4th!
1545. sar2401
Quoting LightningCharmer:
There was a comment earlier that accounted for a "non-life-threatening" injury from a tree falling on a mobile home IIRC. Other than that, thankfully have not read or heard of any other injuries.

That's a good thing to hear. Maybe the doom and destruction forecast unit here has gone off to get some sleep. :-)
Quoting 1542. GatorWX:



I only saw what Barbamz posted, never bothered looking at microwave myself. Not too overly impressive. Interesting system to watch.


That was a fun storm to track and follow.
Good morning all...please stay alive!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I_izvAbhExY
Somebody Hep Me!!

Avon NC flooding


Link


1550. sar2401
Quoting GatorWX:


Nice "view stealing" cover image they used. ;)

So you noticed too? I've seen this more and more on YouTube. A little deceptive at best, and very irritating, especially for a "disaster video" that mostly showed leaves wiggling around. :-0
1551. sar2401
Quoting weatherlover94:
Avon NC flooding

Ah, I see the link now. 1-2 feet of standing water certainly deserved a twit.
1552. sar2401
Quoting Randrewl:
Good morning all...please stay alive!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I_izvAbhExY

Oh man...I hated disco when disco was in...:-0
That is suppose to be a pic of flood waters ....reload and click the link I posted

Quoting 1551. sar2401:

And....?
1554. tc1120
Heavy rain and decent wind here from the outer bands of Arthur that just starting coming ashore here in Long Beach, NY.

Wish the surf would come with it.
Cape Cod may be in for a close shave. Glad that the Outer Banks and North Carolina came mostly out safe and sound.



Recon flight #16 is on its way.

Quoting Invisabull:
In a letter from John Adams to his wife Abigail concerning the Independence Day celebration:

It ought to be solemnized with pomp and parade, with
shows, games, sports, guns, bells, bonfires, and
illuminations, from one end of this continent to the other,
from this time forward forever more.
On topic because the holiday weekend has coastal areas filled. :) Thank you for sharing a piece of history. They wrote so much more eloquently in those days.

Stay safe those in flood zones. Between the front and Arthur, there's a lot more rain in the coming hours.
1560. sar2401
Quoting gulfbreeze:
Is the BOC the next place to watch?

Maybe...or maybe not. Except for Gro, did you hear much about some nondescript low coming off the coast and going south to Florida, and then north up the coast, hitting NC as a cat 2? Me either, and that's the reason there is no "one place" to watch next.
Quoting 1557. TropicalAnalystwx13:




Neoguri should not have problems turning into a SuperTyphoon.
Happy indy to all!

Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 8:50 AM PDT on July 04, 2014
Partly Cloudy
77.8 °F
Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 64%
Dew Point: 65 °F
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 3.0 mph
Pressure: 29.98 in (Rising)
Heat Index: 80 °F
possibly a very sticky day, low was 70.0, forecast is for 94F
was 97.0 yesterday and the humidity was better than it has been lately.
Holding my breathe for more decent humidity. Don't use AC here...
1564. sar2401
Quoting FIUStormChaser:
Cape Cod may be in for a close shave. Glad that the Outer Banks and North Carolina came mostly out safe and sound.




Thankfully, the east bias in Arthur worked out for the best for NC. New England had some pretty severe storms yesterday, likely worse than than what they'll see today from Arthur.
Appears that Atlantic City, NJ is getting wind and rain at this time, here is a live webcam, look at the tree's in the top left corner: Link
1566. sar2401
Quoting PedleyCA:
Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 8:50 AM PDT on July 04, 2014
Partly Cloudy
77.8 °F
Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 64%
Dew Point: 65 °F
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 3.0 mph
Pressure: 29.98 in (Rising)
Heat Index: 80 °F
possibly a very sticky day, low was 70.0, forecast is for 94F
was 97.0 yesterday and the humidity was better than it has been lately.
Holding my breathe for more decent humidity. Don't use AC here...

Nasty for Riverside. Is the monsoon getting ready to crank up?
1567. sar2401
Quoting FIUStormChaser:
Appears that Atlantic City, NJ is getting wind and rain at this time, here is a live webcam, look at the tree's in the top left corner:

Atlantic City looks much better when it's raining and visibility is poor.
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.4 WEST. ARTHUR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARTHUR
WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES THIS AFTERNOON...PASS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...AND
BE NEAR OR OVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ARTHUR
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON SATURDAY MORNING.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM DATA FROM AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 976 MB...28.82
INCHES.
1569. hydrus
Quoting 1508. Skyepony:


That is awesome ..Thank you Skye.
1570. Grothar
Quoting 1560. sar2401:


Maybe...or maybe not. Except for Gro, did you hear much about some nondescript low coming off the coast and going south to Florida, and then north up the coast, hitting NC as a cat 2? Me either, and that's the reason there is no "one place" to watch next.


If you go back to June 25-30, I mentioned it many times and even gave the track. :) lalala
1571. GatorWX
Quoting 1550. sar2401:


So you noticed too? I've seen this more and more on YouTube. A little deceptive at best, and very irritating, especially for a "disaster video" that mostly showed leaves wiggling around. :-0


Yes, it is becoming more of an issue. It's kind of sad really. I'm sure these people put up a facade and treat life the same way. "Look at me, I need attention because I'm a tool." -possible quote from one of these types of individuals.
1572. sar2401
Quoting HCW:
AMazing coverage still from Jeff P


Link

Did he ever find a place to get some sleep? Excepting for the whole texting problem, things look pretty good out on the Cape. I'm a little surprised the cops are still letting people drive around and gawk.
1573. aimetti
quiet a bit of rain here in ct from arthur / front

under a flood warning

Quoting 1566. sar2401:


Nasty for Riverside. Is the monsoon getting ready to crank up?


Not sure where all this humidity has been coming from, the wind has been onshore
and that doesn't help and we have had a marine layer every day.

They said on the News that we were going to be getting the remnants of Douglas and
Elida coming up here, so that qualifies as Monsoon.
1575. sar2401
Quoting Grothar:


If you go back to June 25-30, I mentioned it many times and even gave the track. :) lalala

You did good, Gro. As I recall, there was someone else who said the storm would not make landfall in Florida also. :-)
Quoting 1563. PedleyCA:

Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 8:50 AM PDT on July 04, 2014
Partly Cloudy
77.8 °F
Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 64%
Dew Point: 65 °F
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 3.0 mph
Pressure: 29.98 in (Rising)
Heat Index: 80 °F
possibly a very sticky day, low was 70.0, forecast is for 94F
was 97.0 yesterday and the humidity was better than it has been lately.
Holding my breathe for more decent humidity. Don't use AC here...


Maybe we can get a better price buying multiple A/C units.... Looks like we got some muck heading our way from the east:

DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS...NEAR
22N/118W...AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WILL
BRING AN INITIAL INFLUX OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE TODAY AND A GREATER
INFLUX FOR SATURDAY. THE INITIAL INFLUX OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
REACHED THE LOWER DESERTS THURSDAY EVENING WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
STILL AROUND 70. MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE STEADILY
WESTWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD SPREAD
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNRISE.
THERE HAS BEEN ONE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF
THIS MID LEVEL MOISTURE...AT AROUND 230 AM...OVER RIVERSIDE COUNTY A
LITTLE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK AREA.



1577. Grothar
Quoting 1567. sar2401:


Atlantic City looks much better when it's raining and visibility is poor.


sar. There may be a new rule coming out, that all bloggers have to say one positive thing a day. I know it will be hard for you, but we know you can do it. We'll all be pulling for you! :):)
The important point is I hope that Arthur has made people more prepared (mentally and physically) for a hurricane strike. 2013 plus This Year's Predictions has probably made for more lack of interest and concern.

It would have been worse If we had gone all June-July with no storms and then someone gets smacked by a Cat 3, catching them off guard rather than having a less-than-catastrophically-damaging Cat. 2 early on. If someone gets that Cat. 3 or above later in the season, I'd like to think that Arthur helped people getting thinking sooner.
Jeff's driving around doing damage assessments this morning.

Link

Apologize if already posted.
Well, i'm going to headout for a bit, will be interesting to see just how close it gets to Cape Cod tonight, the wind field will continue to expand so Cape Cod will most likely get sustained tropical storm force winds if it continues to stay just west of the model consensus. I am going to look up some webcams, perhaps find a stormchaser in that Cape Cod area and then i will share the link, so we can all see the effects on Cape Cod/Nantucket.

1581. sar2401
Quoting PedleyCA:


Not sure where all this humidity has been coming from, the wind has been onshore
and that doesn't help and we have had a marine layer every day.

They said on the News that we were going to be getting the remnants of Douglas and
Elida coming up here, so that qualifies as Monsoon.

Yeah, you can see the high clouds over the desert and up into southern Nevada, so it looks like something is coming up from the south. The conditions you have today are somewhat similar to mine, and we think we're having a low humidity day> ;-)
1582. Grothar
Quoting 1575. sar2401:


You did good, Gro. As I recall, there was someone else who said the storm would not make landfall in Florida also. :-)


Yes, it was you. But I said it first.

Here comes all the S**t, gonna be sticky later....
1584. GatorWX


That's what I'll be watching.
You can tell the way I walk I'm a woman's man!

LMAO!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I_izvAbhExY
Hopefully this is the last of the landfalling Hurricanes for 2014
1587. sar2401
Quoting Grothar:


Yes, it was you. But I said it first.

LOL.
1588. sar2401
Quoting weatherlover94:
Hopefully this is the last of the landfalling Hurricanes for 2014

Maybe, maybe not. We still have about four months to go.
Statements

11:21 AM ADT Friday 04 July 2014
Special weather statement in effect for:
•Halifax Metro and Halifax County West

Warm and humid conditions today. Heavy rain and strong winds Saturday.

A warm and humid airmass over the Maritimes will result in humidex values exceeding the mid-thirties over inland areas of the province again today, although areas along the Atlantic coast will remain much cooler. The public is advised to drink plenty of water and stay hydrated if spending long periods of time outdoors.

Meanwhile, hurricane Arthur will strengthen today as it moves away from Cape Hatteras. Arthur will move northeastward and merge with a cold front moving across the Maritimes tonight. The combined system will bring heavy rain and strong winds to Nova Scotia on Saturday.

At the moment, general rainfall amounts of around 40 millimetres are likely for Western Nova Scotia. Lower rainfall amounts are expected over eastern sections of the province. Very high rainfall amounts are expected in Southern New Brunswick to the west of the storms track. If the track deviates further east then more significant rainfall would be expected over Nova Scotia.

Additionally, strong winds are expected to develop Saturday and persist until Sunday morning as the system tracks through the region.

Storm surge and large waves are possible with Arthur. High waves and pounding surf can be expected along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia Saturday morning and afternoon with the arrival of storm. High waves are also expected along the Southern Gulf of St Lawrence coastlines Saturday afternoon and evening.

High water levels at the coast could be an issue if the arrival of Arthur coincides with high tide. This timing will be assessed further as we get closer to the storm's arrival. Storm surge warnings may be required for the Northumberland Strait and parts of the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as warnings may be required or extended.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca.



Tropical Cyclone Information Statement currently issued
1591. sar2401
Quoting Grothar:


sar. There may be a new rule coming out, that all bloggers have to say one positive thing a day. I know it will be hard for you, but we know you can do it. We'll all be pulling for you! :):)

Good luck on that. I don't like old geezers either. :-)
It might be nice to get at least one plus on my side!

Nobody gives a damn regarding us old farts!

1593. sar2401
Quoting FIUStormChaser:
Well, i'm going to headout for a bit, will be interesting to see just how close it gets to Cape Cod tonight, the wind field will continue to expand so Cape Cod will most likely get sustained tropical storm force winds if it continues to stay just west of the model consensus. I am going to look up some webcams, perhaps find a stormchaser in that Cape Cod area and then i will share the link, so we can all see the effects on Cape Cod/Nantucket.


I think the effects on Cape Cod and Nantucket will be minimal. There are likely to be more flooding issues inland than what we'll see on the coast or offshore.
1594. Grothar
Quoting 1539. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Amazing the track was nearly dead on perfect from the NHC. Props to them and the models for calling this one, and special shout out to Grothar too.





Now you're a polite young man. Thank you. I remember a post you made when many bloggers couldn't see anything that would form off the SE coast and move SW then NNE. It read, "If Gro says there will be a storm, that is good enough for me" I may leave you some of my painting in my will. I left them on a cave in France, but here is a sample



1595. HCW
This would be the perfect time to make a donation to Portlight or to the redcross to help out the people affected by this storm and future storms
1596. sar2401
Quoting GatorWX:


That's what I'll be watching.

More giant typhoons in the Western Pacific. Makes Arthur look pretty small time by comparison. I feel for those people. :-(
Quoting 1592. Randrewl:

It might be nice to get at least one plus on my side!

Nobody gives a damn regarding us old farts!




Here is your +1. If i could give you +2 i would too, but there is not option for that.
Quoting 1576. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Maybe we can get a better price buying multiple A/C units....




I have Central AC here, I am just too PO to use it and my water cooler works just fine 90% of the time.
Quoting FIUStormChaser:


Here is your +1. If i could give you +2 i would too, but there is not option for that.


May God bless you young man!
Quoting 1593. sar2401:


I think the effects on Cape Cod and Nantucket will be minimal. There are likely to be more flooding issues inland than what we'll see on the coast or offshore.

It will be intresting, would like to see the 2pm models?
So who else is smoking a pork but...bone in today!
1603. Patrap
Quoting 1594. Grothar:




Now you're a polite young man. Thank you. I remember a post you made when many bloggers couldn't see anything that would form off the SE coast and move SW then NNE. It read, "If Gro says there will be a storm, that is good enough for me" I may leave you some of my painting in my will. I left them on a cave in France, but here is a sample






Do u still have my burnt umber charcoal palette?
Play us a song Pat!

Speaking of the rest of the season, I think Arthur really illustrates what some people have been saying about this season: although it'll probably be inactive, there can still be homegrown threats. Imagine if Arthur had developed later in the year, or developed when there wasn't as much dry air forcing thunderstorm's to collapse in his core periodically. Arthur would have easily become a Category 3/4 hurricane as it struck the OBX, as it had an excellent structure throughout most of its trek. Watch out for any trough splits or tropical waves that make their way into the Bahamas this season, that's where the biggest problems may be for the United States.

Standing solid with 8-4-2 for a seasonal total.
1607. hydrus
Quoting 1586. weatherlover94:

Hopefully this is the last of the landfalling Hurricanes for 2014
Me too.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Speaking of the rest of the season, I think Arthur really illustrates what some people have been saying about this season: although it'll probably be inactive, there can still be homegrown threats. Imagine if Arthur had developed later in the year, or developed when there wasn't as much dry air forcing thunderstorm's to collapse in his core periodically. Arthur would have easily become a Category 3/4 hurricane as it struck the OBX, as it had an excellent structure throughout most of its trek. Watch out for any trough splits or tropical waves that make their way into the Bahamas this season, that's where the biggest problems may be for the United States.

Standing solid with 8-4-2 for a seasonal total.



Thanks Teddy! I hear what you're saying!
Very sweet Pat!
Oh my God...I had to do the Cagney part in school!

LMAO!!
1611. Patrap
uncle arthur reminds me of cindy 05,fast former,became hurricane at landfall, but wit a S to N impact, left 200k w/o power and we were still mulching trees from it,on playgrounds when K hit.
A slow hurricane season was predicted because of an expected El Nino and the fact that SSTs in the MDR are only average. But, the El Nino is beginning to look marginal, and SSTs can pick up quickly.

SAL's an issue, but if lack of vertical stability is above average throughout the region, that would be a big boost.
No more songs like that please Pat!

EARTH MODEL
SFC TEMPS WINDS
1700 JULY 4 2014
I love reading Gro's posts so I just look for the most 'likes'..Gro you were quite the artist in your formative years!!..Happy Fourth Everyone..
1616. Inyo
Rutland also had a huge storm a few weeks ago - golf ball sized hail messed up a bunch of cars, the storm had an apparent microburst and almost dropped a tornado. Not sure what's up with Rutland this year. Montpelier hasn't had a severe storm yet this year, which is fine. Last year we had one rip through, tear up some trees, and knock out power. Though this latest storm did bring down the broadband internet for a bit (nooo!) it didn't cause real problems here

Quoting 1464. VermontStorms:



I heard Rutland got hit hard too, but last night it sounded like you guys were going to get pounded. Glad it wasn't too bad.
Linkhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rK_5cJpM06k&featu re =youtu.be
Certainly learned not every Cat2 packs the same punch. When a 100 mph Cat 2 with an eyewall that goes to the West of the OB, I really was concerned that it could be devastation. Looked liked the worst possible path and we've seen far weaker storms in the past do real devastation. Even the Eastern bands that hit Hatteras upward didn't have the punch that radar showed they might have. Great that reports show minimal damage from Arthur and the fact that no one has died is pretty amazing and miraculous. I've certainly learned that it's far more than wind profile and track that make a storm potentially deadly. Arthur's wind never materialized fully, highest sustained reported were just at or above hurricane strength and Arthur was strongest in his far outer Eastern bands and those stayed off the OB. The eye was not as strong as one would typically expect with a Cat 2 either. I was one who said last night that I was concerned this could be very bad. With a 100 mph storm with an eye going the the length of the OB to the West, lot of criteria were there to think that. I was wrong and a handful of others thought the opposite and they were right. Just shows every hurricane is amazingly unique and track and wind certainly are never the full story.
Quoting 1605. CybrTeddy:

Speaking of the rest of the season, I think Arthur really illustrates what some people have been saying about this season: although it'll probably be inactive, there can still be homegrown threats. Imagine if Arthur had developed later in the year, or developed when there wasn't as much dry air forcing thunderstorm's to collapse in his core periodically. Arthur would have easily become a Category 3/4 hurricane as it struck the OBX, as it had an excellent structure throughout most of its trek. Watch out for any trough splits or tropical waves that make their way into the Bahamas this season, that's where the biggest problems may be for the United States.

Standing solid with 8-4-2 for a seasonal total.
Yes and some that may go inland
The BOC is getting interesting.
Anyone want to come on chat? Link
1623. JRRP
1624. sar2401
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Speaking of the rest of the season, I think Arthur really illustrates what some people have been saying about this season: although it'll probably be inactive, there can still be homegrown threats. Imagine if Arthur had developed later in the year, or developed when there wasn't as much dry air forcing thunderstorm's to collapse in his core periodically. Arthur would have easily become a Category 3/4 hurricane as it struck the OBX, as it had an excellent structure throughout most of its trek. Watch out for any trough splits or tropical waves that make their way into the Bahamas this season, that's where the biggest problems may be for the United States.

Standing solid with 8-4-2 for a seasonal total.

Indeed. If Arthur had started as purely tropical storm, things probably would have been different as well. I've always been perplexed by the idea that a season that's below average in the number of storms somehow means it will be below average in the intensity of storms. One is climate and one is weather. We can always get that one storm that turns out to be bad regardless of the rest of the season or El Nino, or lack thereof.
I just read that, even though last year was super lackluster, Ingrid's name still got retired. Although much of that was Manuel's influence, I'm sure. I'm sure there was an entry citing that on this blog, but it must have been one of the few I'd missed.

Cheers to Arthur for blowing 2013 out of the water all by himself! He's still maintaining a fantastic structure, and I'm not entirely convinced he'll be completely post-tropical by the time he hits Canada.
Quoting 1564. sar2401:


Thankfully, the east bias in Arthur worked out for the best for NC. New England had some pretty severe storms yesterday, likely worse than than what they'll see today from Arthur.


East bias? Arthur kept shifting westward up to landfall. It was supposed to landfall in Hatteras instead of Beaufort/Cape Lookout and going through Pamlico Sound. Heck, it nearly landfalled mainland North Carolina again while going through the sound.
1627. sar2401
Quoting FIUStormChaser:

It will be intresting, would like to see the 2pm models?

Regardless of the models, Cape Cod and Nantucket will get wind and rain, but they are pretty used to dealing with wind and rain. Heavy rain inland is the killer generally. If you look at Agnes, for example, relatively few people died from the direct result of the hurricane. The vast majority died from freshwater flooding. Many of the New England state have drainage systems that just didn't evolve to handle to handle tropical storm type rains.
Quoting 1622. PedleyCA:

This is dedicated to all the fools that didn't leave the OBX yesterday. fool


you been reported even no it is ture that some did not leve but still not nic too be calling any one fools and posting a youtub video about it i think the modes sould re move the commet peddey CA made
Quoting 1624. sar2401:


Indeed. If Arthur had started as purely tropical storm, things probably would have been different as well. I've always been perplexed by the idea that a season that's below average in the number of storms somehow means it will be below average in the intensity of storms. One is climate and one is weather. We can always get that one storm that turns out to be bad regardless of the rest of the season or El Nino, or lack thereof.


Factors which inhibit cyclogenesis also inhibit intensification.
1630. sar2401
Quoting Bluestorm5:


East bias? Arthur kept shifting westward up to landfall. It was supposed to landfall in Hatteras instead of Beaufort/Cape Lookout and going through Pamlico Sound. Heck, it nearly landfalled mainland North Carolina again while going through the sound.

Not east bias in track, east bias in terms of the lopsided nature of the winds and rains. The fact that the strongest winds and heaviest precipitation stayed offshore is why we're seeing such light damage today.
1631. sar2401
Quoting yonzabam:


Factors which inhibit cyclogenesis also inhibit intensification.

Not true, Arthur being a good example. It took the storm a long time to really ramp up but, when it did, it was pretty impressive for what started as a continental low pressure system.
Quoting 1630. sar2401:


Not east bias in track, east bias in terms of the lopsided nature of the winds and rains. The fact that the strongest winds and heaviest precipitation stayed off shore is why we're seeing such light damage today.


Oh... agree with you completely. I was just 20 miles from western eyewall but winds weren't that impressive considering the location.
Quoting 1628. Tazmanian:



you been reported even no it is ture that some did not leve but still not nic too be calling any one fools and posting a youtub video about it i think the modes sould re move the commet peddey CA made


No worries, Pedley. Taz is an experimental bot. Still needs a lot of work on it.
1634. Grothar
Happy 4th of July. I think we are all glad that Arthur didn't do as much damage as it could have, and the ones that were affected, get back to normal soon.

I wish that your 4th ends in a big bang.

1635. sar2401
Quoting yonzabam:


No worries, Pedley. Taz is an experimental bot. Still needs a lot of work on it.

You're not very nic. :-) With my upcoming ban, I will wish you all a pleasant, safe, and fun Independence Day. I have relatives who are going to feed me and let me swim in their pool. :-)
Quoting 1631. sar2401:


Not true, Arthur being a good example. It took the storm a long time to really ramp up but, when it did, it was pretty impressive for what started as a continental low pressure system.


Of course it's true. SSTs, shear, vertical instability, dry air, SAL etc all influence both the initiation of storms, and their intensification, once they form.
Quoting 1433. HurrikanEB:

The frontal band of rain streaming across the interior northeast has dropped more rain than Arthur:










Well, you have to make sure to check radar estimates with some sample observations to see if they are accurate. Rain gauge data indicates the rainfall amounts are overestimated in parts of the northeast. Radar indicates solid 4-5 inches of rain over Albany NY, but rain reports are much lower, mainly 1-2 inches in the same areas showing 4-5 inches. Rain gauges in that 6-8 inch area show nowhere near that either, more like 2-3 inches. That's likely due to a lot ice growth in the area getting back to radar, that is brighter reflectivity than the rain rate really is.

Conversely, tropical systems notoriously have a lot heavier rainfall rates than the radar can estimate due to warm rain processes, that is warm core convection's ice growth layer is much higher into the atmosphere, the deeper depth of warm air allows the atmosphere to transport larger amounts if liquid water higher into the air. There are other reasons why warm process rain shows up as weaker reflectivity than it represents, which is why deep convection with -90 C thunderstorm tops in a hurricane may show up as only 50 -55 DBZ compared to 60-65 DBZ in a non-tropical environment. Dual pole radar can much better handle this problem, and gives much more accurate rainfall estimates. But this is not dual pole estimates, but standard radar estimates.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Arthur was a classic case too of a hurricane strengthening in spite of dry air entrainment throughout and yet obviously the dry air still have a very negative affect on the damage Arthur was capable of doing. Eye had good form but dry air within caused it to not be delivering the punch of a Cat 2 eye. The bands surrounding the eye had far more collapsing thunderstorms as compared to really intense bands that often accompany a Cat 2. And my favorite lesson of the night, if there is not widespread power outages and cell phone service is ongoing then really bad damage is likely not to be widespread. Did a little research on it, and that rings true based on power loss with the really bad hurricanes of past almost across the board. Thanks for that tidbit Sar, felt like commonsense after I thought about it.
1640. Grothar
Quoting 1614. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

EARTH MODEL
SFC TEMPS WINDS
1700 JULY 4 2014



Keep. Glad to see you're back.
Quoting Inyo:
Rutland also had a huge storm a few weeks ago - golf ball sized hail messed up a bunch of cars, the storm had an apparent microburst and almost dropped a tornado. Not sure what's up with Rutland this year.



Rutland really tends to get rough weather. I think Killington causes storms to dump on Rutland, whereas over here by the river we are in the rain shadow of Killington (and Mt Ascutney, for stuff coming from the south) It is funny that such small mountains can have such an effect on weather, but they really do seem to.
1642. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA.NASA goes-e satellite via Canada.gov
Subject:: Hurricane Arthur 2014
Imagery type:: IR (clr-cloud temperatures) Re-Filtered colours (not professionally) by vis0(i) for more detail,  also recreated scale, hence the sloppy edges.

Imagery period::201407-02;0845UTC till 201407-04;1445UTC



1643. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA/NASA goes-e satellite via Canada.gov
Subject:: Hurricane Arthur 2014
Imagery type:: Visible & IR (clr-cloud temperatures)



Loooks like post-Arthur is still going to give the Canadian Maritimes a good drenching overnight.