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Tropical Depression One Forms off the Coast of East Florida

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:36 AM GMT on July 01, 2014

The Atlantic's first tropical depression of 2014 is here, as Tropical Depression One finally formed at 11 pm EDT Monday evening from disturbance 91L. TD 1 was drifting southwest at 2 mph towards the east coast of Central Florida early Tuesday morning. Long-range radar out of Melbourne, Florida on Tuesday morning showed that bands of heavy rain from TD 1 were affecting the Northwest Bahamas, and sustained winds of 33 mph gusting to 36 mph were observed at Settlement Point in the Northwest Bahama Islands at 2 am EDT. Satellite loops showed heavy thunderstorms were limited to the south side of TD 1's center of circulation, and were slowly increasing in intensity and areal coverage. The counter-clockwise circulation of an upper level high pressure over Florida was bringing northerly winds over TD 1 at high altitude, and these winds were creating moderate wind shear of 10 - 15 knots. Water vapor satellite loops showed very dry air to the north of TD 1, and the northerly winds were driving this dry air in the heart of the storm, interfering with development, and keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the north side of the circulation. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters will investigate TD 1 on Tuesday morning, and the NOAA jet is scheduled to fly Tuesday afternoon.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of 91L, taken at approximately 16:30 UTC (12:30 pm EDT) on Monday, June 30, 2014. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for TD 1
Steering currents are weak off of the Southeast U.S. coast, but the models are in good agreement on the track. The disturbance should continue a slow southwesterly motion through Tuesday morning, then turn northwards or north-northwestwards on Tuesday afternoon, and move parallel to the Florida coast without making landfall in Florida, as the storm responds to a trough of low pressure passing to the north. Heavy rains of 2 - 4" will likely affect the Northwest Bahamas and eastern coast of Florida Tuesday through Wednesday. By Wednesday, the models are in agreement that TD 1 will turn northeast without hitting the coast of South Carolina, but potentially pass very near the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday morning. The 6Z Tuesday run of the SHIPS model showed the atmosphere surrounding TD 1 will stay dry this week, with the wind shear staying light to moderate, near 10 knots. This dry air, in combination with potentially moderate wind shear, should keep development slow. The storm will be over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, so the extra heat energy available to the storm will help counteract to dry air and wind shear, though. The official NHC forecast of a high-end 70 mph Tropical Storm Arthur on Friday, as the storm makes its closest approach to North Carolina, is a reasonable one. A much weaker storm is also possible, if dry air and wind shear continue to interfere with development this week.

I'll have a new post by Tuesday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 498. K8eCane:

GROTHAR!!!!!

In Wilmington nc
what is YOUR forecast please?


K8ECANE!!!!!! sup
502. MahFL
Quoting 464. RyanSperrey:

Weather channel has just upgraded their peak intensity to 80 MPH, up from 75 MPH, I expect that to rise even further in the future. 



TWC, like everyone else gets their data from the NHC, duh.
Quoting 476. TXCWC:

You can see the trof that will eventually steer Arthur off the East Coast digging into the Northern Plains clearly
img src=" photo db1a1a5e-3d8a-49d6-accf-1a798c95720e_zps94428866.gif">




The local discussion here in SE Va says "A slow moving cold front will push through the region Thursday and Thursday night ahead of this system." So it sounds as if the trough may swing past and not carry the storm away.
we have spelling police? :)



lol.....at least those that want to be.....it's the grammar police that always scare me...somehow they have an issue with my typing style....for the life of me...i don't know why
Quoting 499. tiggeriffic:



And taking into consideration the mariners rule of 1,2,3 that isn't unfathomable....



Yep just taking the cone into account, still in it. Means theres a chance
Quoting 449. Grothar:



You'd all probably be on an antique car blog instead.


So what's on the birthday menu, Gro?
Outflow is beginning to show itself. Arthur will have the classic cirrus deck soon.
Quoting heavyweatherwatcher:

It's just a "sample" from NHC pdf explaining the new GTWO format that goes live today @ 2PM...

It's live now. It's always a good idea to label things for what they really are, especially when we have an active storm.
Grother,,,Just skipping around (hell, too old to skip) I gather it's your birthday....Mine is next week....I'm sure you feel the same pains as I do....Oh my aching back....
Quoting 491. dfwstormwatch:


They are debuting that in the next TWO I believe.

yep

Quoting 492. heavyweatherwatcher:


It's just a "sample" from NHC pdf explaining the new GTWO format that goes live today @ 2PM...



actually it went live already

Quoting 493. MLTracking:


It is an example of the new look of the Tropical Weather Advisories that is going to be implented today.

actually its up now

the new GTWO is live



Poll time ...

How strong will Authur be at 2:00 pm ?

A: 35mph
B: 40mph
C: 50mph
D: 60+
Quoting 455. weatherlover94:

Guys we may not have a below avg season like they are calling for ...El Nino may not even form until after the heart of the season ...we may stay Nutral all season and correct me if I'm wrong but I think conditions in the Atlantic are already better than they where all season of 2013


Outside subtropical region, it's not. Subtropical jet had fully shut down Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Cape Verde development region thanks to upcoming El Nino.
Looking at radar, LLC is about 20-30 miles off to the NNW of Freeport, Grand Bahama.
Quoting kilgores97:


The local discussion here in SE Va says "A slow moving cold front will push through the region Thursday and Thursday night ahead of this system." So it sounds as if the trough may swing past and not carry the storm away.

No, it's the influence of the trough moving south that will tend to steer Arthur offshore. As usual, it's just a model, so watch what's actually happening when we're closer.
The Centerline looks close to 70w/40n which is known as a benchmark for big vs Small Nor'easters so a little shift west could put Nantucket to Boston in line for a blow against the E/NE facing coastline there.
Quoting 511. weatherlover94:

Poll time ...

How strong will Authur be at 2:00 pm ?

A: 35mph
B: 40mph
C: 50mph
D: 60+
45 mph.
Happy to you Grothar, not everyone gets a new tropical weather system for their Birthday.
Quoting 505. VAbeachhurricanes:



Yep just taking the cone into account, still in it. Means theres a chance


There are a couple of things that are going to need to be watched here...strength of storm, if the trough fails to pick it up and the strength of the high building in the Atlantic.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Looking at radar, LLC is about 20-30 miles off to the NNW of Freeport, Grand Bahama.

That's what it looks like to me. The center hasn't moved all that much since last night, although there seems to be some excitement over what masses of high clouds are doing.
Why aren't the Bahamas under a Tropical Storm Warning?

I wonder of the HH will go investigate the lower circulation
Quoting 507. hydrus:

Outflow is beginning to show itself. Arthur will have thA classic cirrus deck soon.

Outflow appears to be beginning over the surface center as well, but it still being overpowered on the NE side of the storm.
Arthur's center looks like at about 50 miles NNW of Freeport Bahamas.
Quoting 511. weatherlover94:

Poll time ...

How strong will Authur be at 2:00 pm ?

A: 35mph
B: 40mph
C: 50mph
D: 60+


so you expect it to weaken by putting 35mph?
Quoting kilgores97:


There are a couple of things that are going to need to be watched here...strength of storm, if the trough fails to pick it up and the strength of the high building in the Atlantic.

And one he predicted as well. Not bad for a fossil. :-)
I predict Hurricane Watches will go up for the Carolina's tomorrow morning


I love it!!
528. A4Guy
can someone confirm that the CoC is moving West - looks like it's fairly steady - with no northern component.
No I don't expect it to weaken I just put it there for an option ..you guys pick :)

Quoting 524. tiggeriffic:



so you expect it to weaken by putting 35mph?
NWS, Wilmington, NC..only for the waters..

Hazardous marine condition(s):
Tropical Storm Warning
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT. ANZ899-020315- 1220 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS FOR MID ATLC WATERS...TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR LOCATED JUST E OF THE COAST OF FLORIDA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE N TODAY THROUGH WED WHILE INTENSIFYING. THE TROPICAL STORM WILL TRACK NE ACROSS THE SRN WATERS LATE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...CONTINUE NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS FRI AS A HURRICANE...THEN PASS NE ACROSS THE NE WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. SEE THE LATEST ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NW TODAY THROUGH THU NIGHT...DRIFT SE INTO THE NRN WATERS FRI INTO FRI NIGHT...CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS SAT...THEN BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE SRN WATERS AND WEAKEN SAT NIGHT. A HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD IN N OF THE FRONT SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. $$
Quoting 521. ArkWeather:

Outflow appears to be beginning over the surface center as well, but it still being overpowered on the NE side of the storm.
Yep. It may have this to deal with the whole time. There could be a small window of opportunity for some moderate intensification.
Quoting 1387. OracleDeAtlantis:

It looks like the earth is preparing a toast to Cape Canaveral,  as we saw in 2008 with Fay, and then Mission Control, with Ike.

May the earth raise this glass to her mouth in memory of Manifest Destiny.

May she speak loudly, so that all the guests can hear her.



Could someone please post an update satellite image of Authur please ?
000
FXUS62 KILM 011528
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1127 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE...BRINGING INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING
NORTH BY WEDNESDAY. THERE IS AN EXPECTATION THAT THIS WILL BECOME
ARTHUR...THE FIRST NAMED TROPICAL SYSTEM OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE
SEASON. THE LATEST OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST TAKES THE CENTER OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE UP ALONG AND NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST...MAKING ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
FORECAST WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO PLEASE
KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION
. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND.
Quoting 511. weatherlover94:

Poll time ...

How strong will Authur be at 2:00 pm ?

A: 35mph
B: 40mph
C: 50mph
D: 60+




E: I don't know
537. 7544
arthur is getting bigger in size at this hour movin idk but looks like its going to cover most of fl first before making that north turn on wendsday?
Quoting 513. CybrTeddy:

Looking at radar, LLC is about 20-30 miles off to the NNW of Freeport, Grand Bahama.


Looks like a mid level one NNW of Freeport and the actual center is ESE of Melbourne. Looks like though the center ESE of Melbourne is trying to merge with the mid level spin to its south. Very strange system here.

There also appears to be a west motion now.

Quoting 410. MLTracking:

New puff of convection over where I assume the COC is.



Looks like it is tightening up it's bands a bit more with new feeder starting in the northeastern section.
HWRF 12Z 54hrs

No rain for us in inland Central FL (or very little). The usual with these systems, though this seems to be forgotten at first when a storm like this first presents itself. A tropical system near FL, must mean a lot of rain, right?! Not necessarily.

The official track has a category one hurricane brushing the OBX of NC. Folks in eastern NC should prepare now, however, this area is quite used to storms like this, as they seem to occur in the majority of years. If the OBX stays on the western side of the storm as currently forecast, it would likely only get strong tropical storm force sustained winds. That area can handle it, but still, stay safe.
Quoting 498. K8eCane:

GROTHAR!!!!!

In Wilmington nc
what is YOUR forecast please?


I gave it last week. Pay attention. If the high pressure to the west of Arthur moves over Florida (as expected) It should begin the turn North in response to the trough currently moving to the east. I expect a slow movement giving Arthur a very good chance at developing into a hurricane. Depending on how far west it moves in the next 24 hours, will determine how close is should be to the coast of the Carolinas. As you have seen, some models skim the coast and as the Doc said, come very near the Outer Banks.

Since the current increase, I would expect that to continue with some waning.

This is one scenario




Personally, I am leaning towards the HWRF track



There are still 2 competing circulations- the broad, dry circulation east of Palm Bay that is moving pretty much due west, and the wet circulation that is stationary east of West Palm. The NHC is considering the more northern circulation as the circulation center.

Quoting 538. StormTrackerScott:


Looks like a mid level one NNW of Freeport and the actual center is ESE of Melbourne. Looks like though the center ESE of Melbourne is trying to merge with the mid level spin to its south. Very strange system here.

There also appears to be a west motion now.



Same thing I'm seeing, looks decoupled at the moment.
Looking at the HH plan, recon was supposed to depart almost an hour ago.
Quoting 522. ncstorm:

Sure could use a mod on the blog right now..


Why? Who's trolling?
Recon ready to take off!
Quoting weatherlover94:
Poll time ...

How strong will Authur be at 2:00 pm ?

A: 35mph
B: 40mph
C: 50mph
D: 60+
C.
If this center relocates to the mid level spin Arthur may not be picked up by the trough. Instead Arthur could sit and drift N or NNW along the east coast of FL as steering currents aren't very strong right now.
If the COC relocates farther East then the 5:00 track will show a more easterly move in the track for the short term and may shift farther west in the 5 day track
what time RECON is flying
Quoting 543. SavannahStorm:

There are still 2 competing circulations- the broad, dry circulation east of Palm Bay that is moving pretty much due west, and the wet circulation that is stationary east of West Palm. The NHC is considering the more northern circulation as the circulation center.




The northern Center is moving west while the mid level spin is stationary.
Here in PBG FL the weather was coming in from the north all morning now it is almost coming from the west... My thoughts are it is definitely moving just south of near due west towards Vero beach FL with a large circulation if it tightens up I would think folks between Melbourne to PB county should take head that we could have a building storm left behind by the trough sitting on our doorstep.. I think it will be a Hurricane by this evening...
on a personal front....today should mark our twenty first day of the year over 100 degrees....giving us our average already....now june is our warmest month and we saw 19 days in triple digits......oh...and did i say windy....yesterdays 107 degrees was accompanied by 35 mph gusts...like living in a freaking blast furnace
Quoting 552. StormTrackerScott:



The northern Center is moving west while the mid level spin is stationary.


The trough is not expected to influence Arthur until Wednesday evening, what will begin its turn north is High pressure building to its east. So its gonna move north.
557. MahFL
Quoting 520. FIUStormChaser:

Why aren't the Bahamas under a Tropical Storm Warning?


That would be up to the Bahamian Gov. The USA does not own the Bahamas. Also the storm is moving away from the Bahamas.
558. 7544
Quoting 553. forecaster1:

Here in PBG FL the weather was coming in from the north all morning now it is almost coming from the west... My thoughts are it is definitely moving just south of near due west towards Vero beach FL with a large circulation if it tightens up I would think folks between Melbourne to PB county should take head that we could have a building storm left behind by the trough sitting on our doorstep.. I think it will be a Hurricane by this evening...


notice the feature to the nne of arthur could that be why we seeing a another ssw to w drift ?
Quoting 556. VAbeachhurricanes:



The trough is not expected to influence Arthur until Wednesday evening, what will begin its turn north is High pressure building to its east. So its gonna move north.


I agree with the north motion but if the southern mid level spin takes over then we could be seeing Arthur get stuck near FL. Very interesting 24 hours ahead.
Quoting 513. CybrTeddy:

Looking at radar, LLC is about 20-30 miles off to the NNW of Freeport, Grand Bahama.




Still looks sloppy on radar. Satellite has a much better presentation, although I'll say both have improved greatly in the last 6 or so hours.

almost a Cat 2 right at Wilmington..per the 12z HWRF..

Quoting 533. weatherlover94:

Could someone please post an update satellite image of Authur please ?
Quoting 538. StormTrackerScott:



Looks like a mid level one NNW of Freeport and the actual center is ESE of Melbourne. Looks like though the center ESE of Melbourne is trying to merge with the mid level spin to its south. Very strange system here.

There also appears to be a west motion now.



Ship observations from last night and this morning don't support it being mid-level. A ship recorded easterly winds north of the center last night and south-southwesterly winds southeast of the center (along with 41 mph sustained winds) earlier.
000
URNT15 KNHC 011658
AF307 0201A ARTHUR HDOB 05 20140701
162530 3045N 08753W 4232 07172 0389 -155 -319 167013 013 /// /// 03
162600 3046N 08750W 4165 07293 0397 -162 -338 161014 014 /// /// 03
162630 3046N 08748W 4114 07388 0404 -165 -363 152015 016 /// /// 03
162700 3046N 08745W 4102 07413 0408 -168 -381 153015 016 /// /// 03
162730 3046N 08742W 4105 07410 0410 -165 -384 154017 017 /// /// 03
162800 3046N 08740W 4108 07406 0406 -166 -382 154017 017 /// /// 03
162830 3046N 08737W 4099 07403 0402 -167 -381 152017 017 /// /// 03
162900 3047N 08734W 4107 07408 0411 -165 -383 152017 017 /// /// 03
162930 3047N 08731W 4099 07406 0401 -165 -385 150016 016 /// /// 03
163000 3047N 08728W 4107 07409 0408 -165 -385 151015 016 /// /// 03
163030 3047N 08725W 4106 07413 0414 -165 -382 154016 017 /// /// 03
163100 3047N 08723W 4107 07405 0408 -165 -381 154015 017 /// /// 03
163130 3047N 08720W 4107 07404 0407 -165 -377 154015 015 /// /// 03
163200 3048N 08717W 4107 07405 0408 -165 -365 148015 016 /// /// 03
163230 3048N 08714W 4106 07406 0408 -165 -362 146015 016 /// /// 03
163300 3048N 08711W 4106 07406 0408 -165 -356 148016 017 /// /// 03
163330 3048N 08708W 4106 07406 0408 -165 -346 151018 018 /// /// 03
163400 3048N 08706W 4107 07405 0408 -165 -345 152017 018 /// /// 03
163430 3048N 08703W 4107 07403 0408 -165 -348 151018 018 /// /// 03
163500 3049N 08700W 4107 07405 0408 -165 -352 148018 018 /// /// 03
$$
Quoting 511. weatherlover94:

Poll time ...

How strong will Authur be at 2:00 pm ?

A: 35mph
B: 40mph
C: 50mph
D: 60+


50mph
never mind RECON is in the air

Quoting 258 Barefootontherocks:
Even the big guns are flying today. Whatever for - just to make sure the forecast is correct?
Maybe Answered my own question as to why the big airplane recon is going out today. To examine the atmosphere related to this Atl ridge the GFS model depicts as building close to the eastern U.S coast over the next three days. Timing of this ridge and how far west it builds is key to steering.

C'mon, Arthur, beat the ridge. Just slide out and up with the trough and only drop some rain on the Carolinas Independence Day.
Thank you , this is bound to be stronger than 40 mph now ...looks like an intensifying TC to me


Quoting 562. hydrus:


HWRF got 976 mb right at Morehead City. My house is right at 35 N/78 W mark on this map.

Quoting 563. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Ship observations from last night and this morning don't support it being mid-level. A ship recorded easterly winds north of the center last night and south-southwesterly winds southeast of the center (along with 41 mph sustained winds) earlier.


Interesting so whats with the northern circulation moving west? Is that the mid level one then?
572. flsky
Rain band pulling into Ponce Inlet now.
Cat 2..per the 12z HWRF..this would inhibit terrible flooding



landfall


Quoting 517. fireflymom:

Happy to you Grothar, not everyone gets a new tropical weather system for their Birthday.



Thanks. I never thought of that/ I just hope it stays out to sea.
HWRF shifts west, clatters into NC.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Ship observations from last night and this morning don't support it being mid-level. A ship recorded easterly winds north of the center last night and south-southwesterly winds southeast of the center (along with 41 mph sustained winds) earlier.


First, Good Morning.

Second, I truly enjoy your analysis on this blog. What an interesting storm.
Quoting 421. washingtonian115:

I'm surprised from the lack of coverage of Author from the media.No one around here is talking about it.They much rather talk about soccor than whats coming for the people on the east coast.Sports over millions of lives?.I don't want to live on this planet no more.


Is this person serious or trolling.

This is going to be an almost non-event compared to a real hurricane. This is a reason a lot of people don't take the comments section too seriously most of the time.
For those saying the formation of Arthur changes things and represents an uptick in activity for the season, remember that a nontropical low that spins up off the Southeast coast is a frequent progenitor of storms in El Nino years, especially in the early season. Ana in July 1991 and Arthur in July 2002 formed similarly. Both of those seasons were El Ninos and the silence resumed until August. Not that this will be the case for 2014, but it's worth noting.

Had Arthur developed from a wave in the deep tropics, it would be more ominous.
Quoting 575. VAbeachhurricanes:

HWRF shifts west, clatters into NC.




lt made landfall on the 6z run at almost the same spot..trying to be consistent which is scary for the HWRF..
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Interesting so whats with the northern circulation moving west? Is that the mid level one then?


Look at the Vorticity Maps

Good hard rain in Fort Pierce right now. Light winds though.
Quoting 571. StormTrackerScott:



Interesting so whats with the northern circulation moving west? Is that the mid level one then?

No, that's low-level as well. I'm not entirely sure what's going to happen over the next 24 hours--we may see the one to the north dissipate, or we may see the two just merge. It would make sense for the southern one to become dominant since it's embedded within the deep convection already.
Quoting 542. Grothar:



I gave it last week. Pay attention. If the high pressure to the west of Arthur moves over Florida (as expected) It should begin the turn North in response to the trough currently moving to the east. I expect a slow movement giving Arthur a very good chance at developing into a hurricane. Depending on how far west it moves in the next 24 hours, will determine how close is should be to the coast of the Carolinas. As you have seen, some models skim the coast and as the Doc said, come very near the Outer Banks.

Since the current increase, I would expect that to continue with some waning.

This is one scenario




Personally, I am leaning towards the HWRF track







THATS TOO CLOSE FOR COMFORT.
PLEASE DO SOMETHING
Quoting 560. GatorWX:





Still looks sloppy on radar. Satellite has a much better presentation, although I'll say both have improved greatly in the last 6 or so hours.



Anyone questioning the satellite improvement just needs to watch this:
Link
Quoting 557. MahFL:



That would be up to the Bahamian Gov. The USA does not own the Bahamas. Also the storm is moving away from the Bahamas.


Yea, dont see the need for it here. Its moving away, and the weather is more or less similar to any normal summer day that has a bit more moisture than normal.
Glad recon is FINALLY going in so we can see what's up with Arthur. Seems we would be seeing more SWerly winds here on the Jupiter coast given it's location. Could just be a broad center though.

Quoting 573. ncstorm:

Cat 2Don'ter the 12zsoccor..this would inhibit terrible flooding



landfall



Stop dramacasting ncstorm!!.Don't you know soccor is more important than a hurricane about to make landfall!!!
Quoting 571. StormTrackerScott:



Interesting so whats with the northern circulation moving west? Is that the mid level one then?
Looks to me that the supposed surface CoC is rotating around the big convection to the south. Should be onshore soon, and the center may be relocated.
Quoting 573. ncstorm:

Cat 2..per the 12z HWRF..this would inhibit terrible flooding



landfall





That track is almost a carbon copy of Irene. Made landfall around Moorehead City and moved across far eastern NC.
Is this person serious or trolling.

This is going to be an almost non-event compared to a real hurricane. This is a reason a lot of people don't take the comments section too seriously most of the time.



one should never take the comments seriously........
Quoting Bluestorm5:
HWRF got 976 mb right at Morehead City. My house is right at 35 N/78 W mark on this map.



Guys this is the HWRF...we are taking this with MOUNDS of salt here.
Quoting 587. washingtonian115:


Stop dramacasting ncstorm!!.Don't you know soccor is more important than a hurricane about to make landfall!!!


LOL..lets hope not..people in NC are ready at least..if the US lose today then the media will find something else to hype and it will most likely be Arthur..
Doesn't have to be a Hurricane of any strength to cause major damage ... Flooding is the main worry in any significant rain event ... This looks like a significant rain event ... the people living anywhere this storm goes would be in great danger of flash flooding I would think.
Quoting 359. WIBadgerWeather:


Too soon to make a 100% prediction, but the NHC has it going about 100-200 miles East of the island as a 70 mph TS.

Quoting 360. SavannahStorm:


Arthur should stay well offshore of Hilton Head, affecting only the upper coast of SC. However, there will be strong surf action all along the coast. Any deviation to the west, though, could change the forecast track dramatically due to the angle it will be moving up the coast.
Thank you both. I'm checking on this because my sister lives there. I would love to see the surf action, but a tropical storm? Um, not do much!
I'd expect more people on right now considering there's a storm right of the coast!
Soccer-casting?
Quoting SavannahStorm:
We still have multiple vortexes around a broad COC. The new bursts of convection may cause the center to shift around a bit before it finally consolidates.



Heading West?
Feeder bands affecting West Palm Beach.
I see many who discount smaller or less powerful storms as not being dangerous. Is it not true that some of the most deadliest storms on record were not large cyclones but TD and TS and some never even hit land...
Quoting 591. wxgeek723:



Guys this is the HWRF...we are taking this with MOUNDS of salt here.


This would be true if it wasn't for the fact the HWRF has been doing well with the Pacific storms since its update earlier this year. That coupled with the fact it is getting to be very consistent with the storm makes me lean in its direction.

Personally I believe the storm will strengthen to around 90mph +/- 5mph and will probably make a visit for Cape Lookout.... so basically landfall somewhere between the GFS on the right and the HWRF on the left. This is because in recent years the GFS has shown an eastward basis with east coast storms while the HWRF tends to have a slight westward one.


Also of note the southern center at the moment appears pretty much midlevel in nature and brought on by the rapid convective development yesterday. The true circulation center as of now is the more naked one to the north that appears to be slowly drifting west to west north west.
Quoting 596. interstatelover7166:

I'd expect more people on right now considering there's a storm right of the coast!


Arthur is boring. If Arthur was a person, you'd be looking at your watch and saying "Oh dear, is that the time?"

Quoting 589. tropicfreak:



That track is almost a carbon copy of Irene. Made landfall around Moorehead City and moved across far eastern NC.
Irene brought heavy rain here and gust as high as 60mph to some parts of the D.C area.Hoping Author goes harmlessly out to sea.


Quoting 602. forecaster1:

I see many who discount smaller or less powerful storms as not being dangerous. Is it not true that some of the most deadliest storms on record were not large cyclones but TD and TS and some never even hit land...


It is not true.
Quoting 596. interstatelover7166:

I'd expect more people on right now considering there's a storm right of the coast!

Just a day of bad thunderstorms at the worst.
Arthur has odd structure, the mid level center appears to be southeast of the surface circulation. And truthfully, we should be thankful for that, as the mid level center is taking on pseudo-eyewall like structure. If that was stacked over the surface circulation, Arther would probably be deepening very rapidly right now. Weak systems are known for odd structure issues like this though. Its harder to see such odd phenomenon from a satellite imagery, but the radar imagery allows us to see such interesting events.

My guess the reason this is happening is that while moisture is very high even near the center of Arthur(PW 2.2-2.4) it is all in the low levels near the center. Above the surface, there is drier air. Extra-tropical systems don't have this issues, but tropical cyclones need at least near saturation through the column. If not, any areas that have dry layers present can mean complete devoid of convection, or at least very shallow or weak showers, not deeper thunderstorms.

The deeper thunderstorms appears to be embedded a bit further south where the atmospheric profile is much more favorable, near or at saturation.

I could be wrong, but that is what it appears to me.

Its also possible that this is not the mid level center, but rather a vort max or local max due to persistent deep convection here. Truthfully I'm surprised the low level vort didn't relocate further south closer to the convective max.

Then again, tropical cyclone meteorology has yet a lot of mystery left.
I disagree some storms that never hit land spawn tornadoes and flash floods killing many... Ask the Haitian people or some folks in south America.... The point is in my mind if it has a name there is a reason...
Quoting 606. VAbeachhurricanes:





It is not true.
With the high clouds streaming from south-to-north over the Gulf and high clouds streaming north-to-south over the western Atlantic, associated with the upper-level trough over the Atlantic, you couldn't ask for a better upper-level pattern. The biggest problems in the near-term is the continental dry air being pumped in by the high to its west and the northerly shear caused by the trough. You have to watch small systems like this, especially if the trough to its east moves east, which it should, and its environment moistens. If it can better align with its upper-level anticyclone then all is a go.
Why don't we just issue mandatory evacuations from Miami to Boston already? Sheesh no sense waiting.
Quoting 573. ncstorm:

Cat 2..per the 12z HWRF..this would inhibit terrible flooding



landfall





and the wishcasting has begun......sigh.
How to upset a blog.......

Recon with communications issues
Quoting 605. washingtonian115:


Irene brought heavy rain here and gust as high as 60mph to some parts of the D.C area.Hoping Author goes harmlessly out to sea.


This one is going to be much more compact and centralized than Irene, thank goodness.
Quoting 517. fireflymom:

Happy to you Grothar, not everyone gets a new tropical weather system for their Birthday.





Guess he invited it to his birthday party in Lauderdale - and now this Arthur is at his doorsteps, lol. Hope the guest behaves!

--------------------------

Chicago's Sears Tower hit by lightning three times
BBC with video, 35 minutes ago
The Willis Tower, commonly referred to as the Sears Tower, was struck by lightning repeatedly on Monday night in a severe thunderstorm. The storm caused power outages and flight cancellations throughout the Chicago area. Jane Hill reports.
How to upset a blog.......


I had the same thought.

Quoting 604. yonzabam:



Arthur is boring. If Arthur was a person, you'd be looking at your watch and saying "Oh dear, is that the time?"
Its funny that a 10-day GFS Ghost gets more play than a real, actual named storm 50 miles from Florida.
Well...Buxton has a bullseye on it.

If you chase this storm, stay at the Comfort Inn on the 2nd floor...or else you and your chase vehicle will be under water.
Quoting 591. wxgeek723:



Guys this is the HWRF...we are taking this with MOUNDS of salt here.


Very well aware. However, 0z ECMWF had 980 mb storm landfalling at Cape Hatteras and the fact HWRF correctly predicted rapid deepening of Amanda and Cristina earlier this year.
It seems to be almost stationary, but it did take a slight dip south in the last reading.

27.6N 79.2W 006Z

27.5N 79.2W 012Z

Be interesting to see the plans for the Boston Pops Holiday Spectacular if the models continue to trend westward.
If we get a little more westward drift, Arthur will make landfall (or at least the west side of Arthur's broad center will be on the coast).

Santa Maradona, oh eh, oh eh, oh eh oh eh oh eh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I love that World Cup song, =)
Quoting Melagoo:
Doesn't have to be a Hurricane of any strength to cause major damage ... Flooding is the main worry in any significant rain event ... This looks like a significant rain event ... the people living anywhere this storm goes would be in great danger of flash flooding I would think.

Assuming the storm doesn't make landfall and it keeps its right handed kidney bean precipitation shape, The majority of rain will stay offshore. Those are two big assumptions the models are making, of course, which is why is important to pay attention to the actual synoptic pattern and not so much to models.
Quoting 611. wxgeek723:

Why don't we just issue mandatory evacuations from Miami to Boston already? Sheesh no sense waiting.


Yay....that would include me! :)
Quoting 618. CycloneOz:

Well...Buxton has a bullseye on it.

If you chase this storm, stay at the Comfort Inn on the 2nd floor...or else you and your chase vehicle will be under water.


Oh wow! Mr. Osborne, it's been ages.

How's everything down in Central America?

I cannot believe that you chose to leave us in order to go live in a third world country, =(
RECCO messages coming through


Observation Time: Tuesday, 17:30Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 29.3N 82.3W (View map)
Location: 25 miles (41 km) to the S (175°) from Gainesville, FL, USA.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 6,990 meters
Flight Level Wind: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph) (Bearing was unavailable.)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -16°C
Flight Level Dew Point: -40°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Scattered clouds (trace to 4/8 cloud coverage)
400 mb Surface Altitude: 7,600 geopotential meters
The first operational 5 day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook:

So the 11am said Arthur is moving North West. I am assuming it is making it's turn north and Brevard County will have nothing more than our usual thunderstorm weather. We dodged yet another.
Quoting Methurricanes:
Be interesting to see the plans for the Boston Pops Holiday Spectacular if the models continue to trend westward.

What date is this supposed to happen? Even if it's Saturday, Arthur should be east and well offshore from Boston.
Showing a model suggesting a Cat2 is not wishcasting. NHC already calling for a low end Cat1. With conditions good and improving, certainly a category two is not fantasy land wishcasting. Probably in the realm now of a 5-10% chance of that happening, but two days ago many here thought a hurricane wasn't likely at all either. I don't often come to the defense of ncstorm, but she's no wishcaster.
Quoting 631. sar2401:


What date is this supposed to happen? Even if it's Saturday, Arthur should be east and well offshore from Boston.
Suppose to be Friday night when Arthur will be making his closest pass to the New England Coastline
Quoting 629. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The first operational 5 day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook:




Cors, following Arthur, how's the rest of the month shaping up as it relates to more tropical activity?
635. FOREX
Quoting 600. TropicalTrouble2014:



Really? You're unbelievable, you know that?

SMH.


What does SMH stand for?
Quoting Bluestorm5:


Very well aware. However, 0z ECMWF had 980 mb storm landfalling at Cape Hatteras and the fact HWRF correctly predicted rapid deepening of Amanda and Cristina earlier this year.


Worth pointing out the HWRF has received a round of upgrades this season. It also nailed Boris and 90L and seems to have done decently enough with Douglas and Elida. Also doesn't hurt to have the ECMWF only slightly weaker with such a scenario. That being said, a lot of factors have to line up for such a scenario to take place, factors that don't appear to be in place yet. I'll mark it down as "unlikely" but not "impossible."
Probably too windy and wet for fireworks around SC barrier islands on Thursday night, huh?
I can't turn off the bold font.
Quoting 619. Bluestorm5:



Very well aware. However, 0z ECMWF had 980 mb storm landfalling at Cape Hatteras and the fact HWRF correctly predicted rapid deepening of Amanda and Cristina earlier this year.
Booo.Go away Author.
The question I have is will the NHC call landfall later this afternoon or will they relocate the center? Either way a shift in the models.
Its funny that a 10-day GFS Ghost gets more play than a real, actual named storm 50 miles from Florida.


although most on here won't admit it.....tropical activity...falls in the following categories of importance....

least important...any storm not in the atlantic or eastern pacific basin

casual interest...any storm forming in the eastern pacific as long as there is not a storm in the atlantic basin...

somewhat important....any storm in the atlantic basin...although we will soon lose interest if it is to be weak..or a fish storm

oh my god......any major storm that will make landfall....

and of course...although the above hints at truth...you will still to almost a person here....i wish all storms are fish....coughbscough
Quoting 605. washingtonian115:


Irene brought heavy rain here and gust as high as 60mph to some parts of the D.C area.Hoping Author goes harmlessly out to sea.
.









SPC mesoanalysis seems to agree on the displacement of the mid and low level vort via fluid trapping at 850 mb vs 500 mb:

850mb:



500 mb:

Quoting 638. washingtonian115:

Booo.Go away Author.
All we will get is localized heavy rain due to the strong cold front, thank goodness.
Looking at the wide view, the strongest/fastest rotation is just NW of the tip of the Northern Bahamas.
Generally speaking, intensity errors beyond five days usually average around 15kts plus or minus. Entirely possible Arthur could be a mere 55kt tropical storm as it rounds off away from the Eastern Seaboard or a 85kt hurricane.
Looking at the in flow it looks like the circulation is east of Stuart fl.... Moving wsw at a good clip. I do not see anything that would change the movement for at least 24 hrs... Then if the trough misses well.
Quoting 635. FOREX:



What does SMH stand for?
shaking my head.Where are the MODS to put JFV back behind bars?.
Quoting Grothar:
It seems to be almost stationary, but it did take a slight dip south in the last reading.

27.6N 79.2W 006Z

27.5N 79.2W 012Z



It appears to be moving WSW via radar.
Looks to me like the LLC and the MLC are congealing at a common center, drawing the LLC further south and slightly east.  This means the storm will have not only more TIME to strengthen, but better overall conditions as well.  We really could see a Cat 2 out of this.
Quoting 621. Methurricanes:

Be interesting to see the plans for the Boston Pops Holiday Spectacular if the models continue to trend westward.


How ironic. Arthur Fiedler used to be the conductor for the Boston Pops Orchestra.
Quoting 643. Jedkins01:


SPC mesoanalysis seems to agree on the displacement of the mid and low level vort via fluid trapping at 850 mb vs 500 mb:
LOL, I had to look up "fluid trapping".
Fluid Trapping

Fluid Trapping Parameter: In regions of strong vorticity (i.e., cyclones), air parcels tend to become trapped within the vortex. This can produce a boundary within which air parcels are trapped and so follow the vortex over extended periods. In regions with strong deformation, some air parcels are brought closer together but others become increasingly separated. The trapping parameter (TRAP) is defined according to the simple formula: TRAP = 1/4 [(DEFres)^2 - (VOR)^2]. Negative values are identified regions where the vorticity is larger than the deformation, and it is within such regions that air parcels are likely to be trapped. This parameter is useful for identifying the development of strong vortices and for tracking them.
Reference:
Cohen, R. A., and D. M. Schultz, 2005: Contraction rate and its relationship to frontogenesis, the Lyapunov exponent, fluid trapping, and airstream boundaries, Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 1353-1369.
To clarify, the Mid Level Circulation is moving to the West, and slightly North, but the Low Level Circulation is moving South and slightly East. 

They are converging. 
S.W. winds of 13mph in Freeport, Bahamas which makes sense with the center of the Low it its N.W.
Many people are confusing the mesoscale vortices in Arthur with the low level center which appears to be east of the treasure coast on radar.
Little by little, hour by hour, Arthur continues to look better on satellite. Radar has been a little lagging. I do think it's coming together nicely though.

Click for loop and speed it up. Looks decent!

Quoting 648. washingtonian115:

shaking my head.Where are the MODS to put JFV back behind bars?.


Like many times before, we have to Report, Report and keep reporting....


Nice graphs, Jedkins. I don't think I ever saw those before.
This storm should not be like Irene so do not think about saying that, Irene was more wide and the track was closer to the coast a b-line.
Quoting 658. GatorWX:

Little by little, hour by hour, Arthur continues to look better on satellite. Radar has been a little lagging. I do think it's coming together nicely though.

Click for loop and speed it up. Looks decent!




Wow, great! Thank you for the link.

Live streaming Port Canaveral Webcam looks somehow stormy.

000
WTNT31 KNHC 011745
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014

...TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR GRADUALLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ENROUTE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 79.4W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM NNW OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE TO FLAGLER BEACH

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WATCH
AREA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


Quoting Drakoen:
Many people are confusing the mesoscale vortices in Arthur with the low level center which appears to be east of the treasure coast on radar.


Nice.
So the tight vortices we are seeing in the strong convection to the south are the mesoscale vortices you speak of.
The actual Low level center is the broader circulation east of the Treasure coast.
On a side note... Happy Birthday Gro! Tell us again about the great 1926 Miami Hurricane :p Have a great day guy!
Quoting 636. CybrTeddy:



Worth pointing out the HWRF has received a round of upgrades this season. It also nailed Boris and 90L and seems to have done decently enough with Douglas and Elida. Also doesn't hurt to have the ECMWF only slightly weaker with such a scenario. That being said, a lot of factors have to line up for such a scenario to take place, factors that don't appear to be in place yet. I'll mark it down as "unlikely" but not "impossible."


I agree. I would like to see little more out of Arthur over the next 24 hours before buying a 80-90 kt cyclone hitting 100 miles to SE of me. Arthur is doing pretty good today, though...
from weatherguy03

Robert Acanfrio
1 hr · Edited ·
Worse of the weather for my local friends from Arthur will be Wednesday thru Thursday morning. Gusty winds along the coast, occasional squally rain bands from Arthur, strong rip currents and dangerous seas. Think of it as Local Noreaster conditions.
670. silas
I'll admit, I'm surprised, Arthur actually looks pretty well this afternoon. Still a lot of dry air to the north it is going to have to deal with at some point.

Quoting 648. washingtonian115:

shaking my head.Where are the MODS to put JFV back behind bars?.


I'm not going to front..when I first started coming to the blog regularly, JFV used to trip me out..going back and forth with the old timers, crack me up..I think he is harmless..even though he thinks I'm unbelievable..LOL
Well, I'm not going to say it can't happen but I'm going to have some very healthy skepticism, especially given the known tendencies of the forum.

Happy Birthday Gro! I tried to find a picture of a cake large enough for adequate candles and wound up searching the galaxy for small planets! Have many billions more and thanks for being such a wonderful part of our blog life.
Where can I go to track the recon flight? A website
Quoting 520. FIUStormChaser:

Why aren't the Bahamas under a Tropical Storm Warning?

I wonder of the HH will go investigate the lower circulation


Maybe because sustained tropical storm force winds are not expected to affect The Bahamas. Also NHC does not issue warnings for The Bahamas. Warnings in The Bahamas are issued by our Department of Meteorology, usually in consultation with the NHC.
Quoting 664. Sfloridacat5:



Nice.
So the tight vortices we are seeing in the strong convection to the south are the mesoscale vortices you speak of.
The actual Low level center is the broader circulation east of the Treasure coast.



Yes
For those with the Euro subscription, please let us know what its showing in the long range as you get it quicker than those of us waiting on the free sites to load..
HRRR for 6 pm. this evening. We could see a strong band setup with the day time heating later this afternoon.
Quoting 662. barbamz:



Wow, great! Thank you for the link.

Live streaming Port Canaveral Webcam looks somehow stormy.


I love that sat! You're welcome Barb. It's completely customizable from home page. Great product.

Where can I go to track the recon flight? A website


here
682. bwi
Quoting 657. Drakoen:

Many people are confusing the mesoscale vortices in Arthur with the low level center which appears to be east of the treasure coast on radar.


Thanks!
Oh hey I just hit 200 posts :D
There will probably somewhat of a western shift in track with the latest model runs. Also to note that radar shows the system wobbling to the west and in a case like this small deviations in longitude can be a big difference downstream.
Quoting 675. FLMermaid:

Where can I go to track the recon flight? A website


The easiest for me www.tropicaltidbits.com
Quoting 681. ricderr:


Where can I go to track the recon flight? A website


here


Thank you :)
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Generally speaking, intensity errors beyond five days usually average around 15kts plus or minus. Entirely possible Arthur could be a mere 55kt tropical storm as it rounds off away from the Eastern Seaboard or a 85kt hurricane.

Dr. Masters pointed this out in his early morning blog:

The official NHC forecast of a high-end 70 mph Tropical Storm Arthur on Friday, as the storm makes its closest approach to North Carolina, is a reasonable one. A much weaker storm is also possible, if dry air and wind shear continue to interfere with development this week.


I suspect some people never read all the way to the bottom. :-)
Quoting 671. ncstorm:



I'm not going to front..when I first started coming to the blog regularly, JFV used to trip me out..going back and forth with the old timers, crack me up..I think he is harmless..even though he thinks I'm unbelievable..LOL


Knowing JFV from a old Facebook group, I agree. He's not a bad guy at all.
Quoting 684. Drakoen:

There will probably somewhat of a western shift in track with the latest model runs. Also to note that radar shows the system wobbling to the west and in a case like this small deviations in longitude can be a big difference downstream.


This is especially critical to me living just 100 miles inland from Morehead City. I could be facing strong thunderstorm band up to 45 mph or I could have a clear sky.
Quoting 629. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The first operational 5 day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook:



Todd Kimberlain posted on Facebook:

"Back in graduate school, I can remember Eric Blake and I trying to read the "tea leaves" in the model guidance to determine the likelihood of tropical cyclone formation. We've always wanted to push the envelope to see how far into the future we could really make accurate predictions of when and where tropical cyclones might form. Our self-motivation was enough to keep us interested in learning more, but mentors like Ed Berry opened our eyes to a world of atmospheric waves (or intraseasonal oscillations) that we've learned are often incredibly important in the genesis process.

With the models becoming increasingly more sophisticated and reliable since that time and our knowledge of intraseasonal oscillation expanding, Eric and I recommended to the Hurricane Specialist Unit (HSU) at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) that our group begin producing experimental 5-day genesis forecasts beginning in 2009. Four years later, the results of the experiment showed that we do indeed have skill, and the wheels were put in motion to make this an official NHC product.

And so, 5 years later, the 5-day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook debuts at the NHC. We're proud of our collective accomplishment, and will now press on to make week 1 and week 2 genesis probabilistic forecasts of genesis in the future as we ask the question: how far into the future can we see?"
Quoting 687. sar2401:


Dr. Masters pointed this out in his early morning blog:

The official NHC forecast of a high-end 70 mph Tropical Storm Arthur on Friday, as the storm makes its closest approach to North Carolina, is a reasonable one. A much weaker storm is also possible, if dry air and wind shear continue to interfere with development this week.


I suspect some people never read all the way to the bottom. :-)


Of course they don't, Sar. Most only skim through his entries, if that.

It's human nature, what can i tell ya?



been jogging south the past few hours
Quoting 688. Bluestorm5:



Knowing JFV from a old Facebook group, I agree. He's not a bad guy at all.


Which one? The one that Cory and Jim manage?
Quoting 627. TropicalTrouble2014:



Oh wow! Mr. Osborne, it's been ages.

How's everything down in Central America?

I cannot believe that you chose to leave us in order to go live in a third world country, =(


I am pulling out a lasagna in 5 minutes...so I gotta make this fast! :)

Ecuador is amazing. Especially Cuenca. It is at 8600 feet. The weather is the same every day. Hi: 72-76 Low 52-58 with a strong chance of rain. The only difference between winter and summer here is 5 minutes of daylight.

Why did I evacuate the USA? Let's hope I'm wrong about that!

They only sell plain ground pork here, so I had to buy some Italian pork seasoning (from Alabama) for my lasagna!

Ding Ding! It's ready! :) Woohoo!
RevlnFl don't be so sure that we dodged a storm we still have a storm live storm at our coastline
ECMWF 12z looks farther west through 48 hours.
From radar it sure looks like the large ball of convection is going to roll into Martin and ST Lucie county tonight... I imagine we will have a great view from radar tonight during peak hours... As far as error on the side of caution I am taking that route for me and my family!
Quoting 679. Sfloridacat5:

HRRR for 6 pm. this evening. We could see a strong band setup with the day time heating later this afternoon.



Not looking too grand yet.



Last two days have been nice.
Quoting 660. Grothar:



Nice graphs, Jedkins. I don't think I ever saw those before.


what,, YOU the Santharian God of Weather haven't seen it... sleeping on the Throne :)
Quoting 696. Drakoen:

ECMWF 12z looks farther west through 48 hours.


Don't want to hear that, sir.
It won't take much of a WWD shift to put coastal SC in the bullseye.
Quoting 690. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Todd Kimberlain posted on Facebook:

"Back in graduate school, I can remember Eric Blake and I trying to read the "tea leaves" in the model guidance to determine the likelihood of tropical cyclone formation. We've always wanted to push the envelope to see how far into the future we could really make accurate predictions of when and where tropical cyclones might form. Our self-motivation was enough to keep us interested in learning more, but mentors like Ed Berry opened our eyes to a world of atmospheric waves (or intraseasonal oscillations) that we've learned are often incredibly important in the genesis process.

With the models becoming increasingly more sophisticated and reliable since that time and our knowledge of intraseasonal oscillation expanding, Eric and I recommended to the Hurricane Specialist Unit (HSU) at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) that our group begin producing experimental 5-day genesis forecasts beginning in 2009. Four years later, the results of the experiment showed that we do indeed have skill, and the wheels were put in motion to make this an official NHC product.

And so, 5 years later, the 5-day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook debuts at the NHC. We're proud of our collective accomplishment, and will now press on to make week 1 and week 2 genesis probabilistic forecasts of genesis in the future as we ask the question: how far into the future can we see?"


Neat snippet as to how this product came to be.

Thanks for sharing it, Cory.

PS: Care to send me the link to his page? I'd like to friend him on FB.
Arthur is sloooow! Slow moving and slow to intensify. I bet his rain even falls at half speed. He's a dork.
Quoting 684. Drakoen:

There will probably somewhat of a western shift in track with the latest model runs. Also to note that radar shows the system wobbling to the west and in a case like this small deviations in longitude can be a big difference downstream.


Exactly. I mentioned this last night. It's a very fine line between having a simple breezy day, and having TS conditions.
The 12z ECMWF is notably stronger with Arthur as well. 982mb by 66 hours.
706. flsky
Local news in ECFL just reported that the center is 77 miles east of Melbourne, FL and a projected wind speed of 80 mph on Fri. at 8:00 am.
Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 1st day of the month at 18:02Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number: 01
Storm Name: Arthur (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 04

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Tuesday, 17:56Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 28.7N 80.4W
Location: 43 miles (69 km) to the NNE (19°) from Melbourne, FL, USA.
Turbulence: Light
Conditions Along Flight Route: In and out of clouds
Pressure Altitude: 760 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 50° at 25 knots (From the NE at ~ 28.7 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 20°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 19°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Broken clouds (5/8 to 7/8 cloud coverage)
925 mb Surface Altitude: 794 geopotential meters

Optional Data...

Estimated Surface Wind: From 50° at 25 knots (From the NE at ~ 28.7 mph)

Remarks Section...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 28 knots (~ 32.2mph)
Quoting 696. Drakoen:

ECMWF 12z looks farther west through 48 hours.


Had a feeling the sub-tropical ridge building in would force the storm further westward in the near-term. Plus, heights should be rising out ahead of the trough digging into the Ohio River Valley
Not a big HWRF fan but this is what the 00z run had for around this time frame. Look familiar?

Quoting 701. nash36:



Don't want to hear that, sir.
It won't take much of a WWD shift to put coastal SC in the bullseye.

hush your mouth I say....press would be tying up a noose for you right now if he read that lol
We are relocating to NW FL as soon as we can secure a nice rental in the Santa Rosa Beach area!
Hoping for a nice patio looking to the west so I can get some awesome photos of incoming weather... gonna have to start a new profile AGAIN!
Quoting 672. wxgeek723:

Well, I'm not going to say it can't happen but I'm going to have some very healthy skepticism, especially given the known tendencies of the forum.




Bertha?
Quoting GatorWX:


Not looking too grand yet.



Last two days have been nice.


Just checked the latest run and the band doesn't fire until 21Z (5 pm) across S.W. Florida over towards the S.E. coast. We'll wait and see if it materializes.
Most likely a combination of feeder band interacting with the westcoast sea breeze.
Natl Hurricane Ctr ‏@NHC_Atlantic 2m
Communications problem at NHC preventing public distribution of AF recon data. Working the issue.
Quoting CycloneOz:
I am pulling out a lasagna in 5 minutes...so I gotta make this fast! :)They only sell plain ground pork here, so I had to buy some Italian pork seasoning (from Alabama) for my lasagna!

Ding Ding! It's ready! :) Woohoo!
Sound delicious. For the ground pork, just add fennel seed, paprika, cayenne pepper and little salt; splash with some white wine, and you have Italian sausage. Enjoy!
Drak, I think the mid level vorticy we're focusing on will become or actually is the llc of low pressure. It's been spitting out low level vorticies all day. That area nearer the Bahamas has sustained convection and rotation all day as well. This seems to be the focus of energy. I do think right now it's still a bit displaced from a more organic position, but I also think this shear should subside quite a bit as the trof nears, allowing it to really take off. I still am sticking to my guns and calling for a 50-65kt system for the OBX. I wouldn't be surprised if it brushed them just offshore either.
From Twitter:

Natl Hurricane Ctr ‏@NHC_Atlantic 58s

Communications problem at NHC preventing public distribution of AF recon data. Working the issue.
Quoting 701. nash36:



Don't want to hear that, sir.
It won't take much of a WWD shift to put coastal SC in the bullseye.
The Diana analog is not looking so far-fetched right now.
Quoting 689. Bluestorm5:



This is especially critical to me living just 100 miles inland from Morehead City. I could be facing strong thunderstorm band up to 45 mph or I could have a clear sky.


Same deal with me further north of you up in Richmond. Decent cutoff.
Arthur barely escapes a landfall on the Outer Banks this run. Minimum pressure down to 974 millibars as it heads out to sea.
Happy Birthday, Grothar!

The gfs had a strong system and the hmwr and now the euro.Cant be a coincidence.
It really looks like the LLC wants to reform further west.
Quoting 678. ncstorm:

For those with the Euro subscription, please let us know what its showing in the long range as you get it quicker than those of us waiting on the free sites to load..


Will do. Although we're not supposed to.
ECMWF decided to take back the lead for the strongest model run from HWRF. 974 mb this time around.

Sorry, NCstorm, but we're not suppose to share ECMWF runs or we'll have our subscription taken away if busted. It's very unlikely that'll happen on here, but you never know...
Quoting 724. Grothar:



Will do. Although we're not supposed to.


Was going to do a "twit-worthy" post, but changed my mind. Happy Birthday my old friend!!!!!!!!!
Douglas and Arthur per 6z FIM-9:



Quoting 725. Bluestorm5:

ECMWF decided to take back the lead for the strongest model run from HWRF. 974 mb this time around.

Sorry, NCstorm, but we're not suppose to share ECMWF runs or we'll have our subscription taken away if busted. It's very unlikely that'll happen on here, but you never know...


Better to be safe than sorry.
There is not a single leaf moving here in Broward county. It suddenly got very still.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
It really looks like the LLC wants to reform further west.
I see it as more of an elongated wobbling COC. It's not stacked so it's kind of like a child's top that's ending its spin. Once Arthur is vertically stacked, he's gonna go...
Quoting 726. GeoffreyWPB:



Was going to do a "twit-worthy" post, but changed my mind. Happy Birthday my old friend!!!!!!!!!


Do it on WU mail. Thanks, Geoff.
Quoting 729. Grothar:

There is not a single leaf moving here in Broward county. It suddenly got very still.


Ominous!
Quoting 713. Sfloridacat5:



Just checked the latest run and the band doesn't fire until 21Z (5 pm) across S.W. Florida over towards the S.E. coast. We'll wait and see if it materializes.
Most likely a combination of feeder band interacting with the westcoast sea breeze.


yesterday, the west seabreeze line POPPED late in the day
Yeah, OK.

Quit turning Arthur into a major, Euro. I swear, it exaggerates more than the American Model sometimes.
Quoting 730. LightningCharmer:

I see it as more of an elongated wobbling COC. It's not stacked so it's kind of like a child's top that's ending its spin. Once Arthur is vertically stacked, he's gonna go...


Assuming he does... think Chantal, Dorian, Ingrid, etc.
Quoting 720. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Arthur barely escapes a landfall on the Outer Banks this run. Minimum pressure down to 974 millibars as it heads out to sea.


The majority of the strengthening past the Carolinas would mostly likely be extra-tropical as it phases with the trough, correct? Question is when exactly does that transition start to occur. Guess the impacts would be the same just on a large scale once extra-tropical transition starts
A sign of things to come?
Check out the feeder band that stretches for hundreds of miles across the Atlantic into Daytona Beach and all the way to back to West Palm Beach.
Athur's outflow is looking very healthy!
Quoting GatorWX:


Assuming he does... think Chantal, Dorian, Ingrid, etc.


IIRC, I don't even think the ECMWF even showed Chantal and Dorian throughout their lifetimes and that was mostly due to the fact they were trucking west at 25-30mph. Impossible to be stacked at that forward speed.
Quoting 731. Grothar:



Do it on WU mail. Thanks, Geoff.
Happy Birthday Grothar! Idk how old you are, but you probably look good for your age. Have a blessed and wonderful day. Best wishes to you. :)
The ECMWF is available early on instant weather maps and is also uploaded here on wunderground with many fields including MSLP, Precip, etc.
Not to take an "eye off the ball" but look at the convection in the Bay of Campeche.

watch this tropical storm going to hit the northeast
Arthur looks pretty good on sat, but perhaps looks are somewhat deceiving. I have no doubt it is a ts, but it certainly has a couple big issues to overcome if it's to become a cane. It's nice to see it shedding that prominent eastern band which I'm assuming was a hindrance. Also, the convection is tightening up/contracting currently and not warming much. Both are decent signs, but again, it has some work to do vertically. Radar looks much better than this am, but not that good in the grand scheme of things.


TS Arthur Graphics Update (2:00 pm advisory - click to enlarge)
Using NWS fast loop it does appear the LLC is currently moving SSW.
Quoting 739. CybrTeddy:



IIRC, I don't even think the ECMWF even showed Chantal and Dorian throughout their lifetimes and that was mostly due to the fact they were trucking west at 25-30mph. Impossible to be stacked at that forward speed.
Not to mention the ecmwf has been consistent with showing a hurricane.
Quoting Grothar:
Enjoy your birthday!   Best Wishes!
Who would ever named their kid..............Or storm "Arthur" Happy Birthday GRO.........
Why has't Miami seen SQUAT from this damn system?

I'm SERIOUSLY steamed over here, @_________@
Quoting 749. PalmBeachWeather:

Who would ever named their kid..............Or storm "Arthur" Happy Birthday GRO.........
Dammit
TS Arthur,
I usually don't post in here i'm a long time lurker, I come in here to keep informed of what a storm might do and what it is doing. I am watching this storm close since my son and his wife are stationed in Atlantic Beach NC.
Quoting 741. Drakoen:

The ECMWF is available early on instant weather maps and is also uploaded here on wunderground with many fields including MSLP, Precip, etc.


thank you Drak..I know we had a little fall out during winter about those snow maps but I'm good if you are..:)
Quoting 739. CybrTeddy:



IIRC, I don't even think the ECMWF even showed Chantal and Dorian throughout their lifetimes and that was mostly due to the fact they were trucking west at 25-30mph. Impossible to be stacked at that forward speed.


True regarding forward speed and the cv type systems, but we've seen it basin wide, especially recently. Seems "dry air" and a bit of shear are the culprits. It has seemed a bit anomalous to me, but I've only been paying close attention to the sats, data since '04ish. Before that, I relied on the far more basic TWC. Big difference! I think Arthur has 12-24 hours before we have a truly acceptable forecast and at that point he should have a good chance at ramping up, if he does.
NAM has Arthur fading out rather quickly, while the GFS has it going into Nova Scotia. I don' see where the NAM is coming from.



Then again, here is a look at who is running all of these models.

Arthur has increased his moisture field considerably since this morning.
Quoting 756. WIBadgerWeather:

NAM has Arthur fading out rather quickly, while the GFS has it going into Nova Scotia. I don' see where the NAM is coming from.



Then again, here is a look at who is running all of these models.




I LOVE that caricature; I've seen it before.

Haha!!!!!!!!
Quoting 611. wxgeek723:

Why don't we just issue mandatory evacuations from Miami to Boston already? Sheesh no sense waiting.


No thanks. We live in that zone, and there doesn't seem to be any reason to flee a TS, maaayybeeee Cat 1, if Arthur gets really lucky.

On another note, partly cloudy here, and temps in the 90s...again. :/ Wish we could get some decent rain, but most of the storms right now seem to be either developing right on top of us and drenching us, or developing somewhere else and then moving past us. Can someone send us some rain that's not too heavy?
20140701 1745 27.8 79.3 T2.5/2.5 01L ARTHUR
Quoting WIBadgerWeather:
Nice graphic ... :)
Quoting 756. WIBadgerWeather:
NAM has Arthur fading out rather quickly, while the GFS has it going into Nova Scotia. I don' see where the NAM is coming from.



Then again, here is a look at who is running all of these models.


re the cartoon... POINTS!!!
Th potential for drizzle and breeze is horrifying!!!
Quoting 738. MLTracking:

Athur's outflow is looking very healthy!



Seems to be getting a push from the NE looking at your image. Looks a little flat in the NE
Getting very strong with Arthur.
767. Siker
Quoting WIBadgerWeather:
NAM has Arthur fading out rather quickly, while the GFS has it going into Nova Scotia. I don' see where the NAM is coming from.



Then again, here is a look at who is running all of these models.



The NAM only goes out to 84 hours.
Small bands of storms are taking shape and rotating through Central Fl. Expect brief heavy rains and gusty winds. Been pretty dry here lately.
Quoting 736. louisianaboy444:



The majority of the strengthening past the Carolinas would mostly likely be extra-tropical as it phases with the trough, correct? Question is when exactly does that transition start to occur. Guess the impacts would be the same just on a large scale once extra-tropical transition starts

Yeah, it may intensify as a tropical cyclone for a brief period past North Carolina, but it should interact with the trough fairly quickly and transition into an extratropical cyclone by the time it reaches/passes east of Nova Scotia.
Recon should resolve all of the disputes about what's going on with Arthur's circulation. Once they can make contact with the NHC that is.
I think they will find that the circulation has relocated and stacked closer to Freeport and the Bahamas, and probably has strengthened some, to about 45 Mph or so. Satellite presentation has improved and also favors that the center has either tucked deeper into the convection, or has relocated as the center is not visible anymore. Overall, Arthur is organizing well as the northern semicircle has began to moisten up and fire convection. If these trends in organization continue, Arthur will be in good shape to begin to intensify at an increased rate. I agree with the NHC's forecast of a peak intensity of 80 Mph, though 85-90 Mph is not out of reach either.
Another Happy Birthday Grothar...
Athur's outflow is looking very healthy its look like Athur's wanted to make landfall in Florida !!!

I wonder for already a while whether Arthur will be able to tap into the moisture provided by the new tropical wave which is now reaching the mid Caribbean.
Quoting 769. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yeah, it may intensify as a tropical cyclone for a brief period past the tropical cyclone, but it should interact with the trough fairly quickly and transition into an extratropical cyclone by the time it reaches/passes east of Nova Scotia.
Seeing that the extra tropical transitions expand the storm, you could see bad conditions extend back into the Yarmouth area
Well Arthur has come to life 2 days ago looked like not much chance, and now with the recent thunderstorms close to the center time will tell how strong he gets now. So the last pressure was down to 1007 mb wonder what it may be at the 8 pm if it drops more he will take a run onto hurricane strength intensity.
Quoting 757. MLTracking:

Arthur has increased his moisture field considerably since this morning.

Movement seems stationary now.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Who would ever named their kid..............Or storm "Arthur" Happy Birthday GRO.........

Heh...my brother's name is Arthur. He's 67. It was a reasonably popular name back in the day. Arthur Miller, Arthur Ashe...that kind of thing. :-)
Quoting 715. LightningCharmer:

Sound delicious. For the ground pork, just add fennel seed, paprika, cayenne pepper and little salt; splash with some white wine, and you have Italian sausage. Enjoy!


Believe it or not...fennel seed, which is a critical component of Italian sausage, is not offered here in "los mercados."

I had to go to Amazon.com and buy Legg's Old Plantation Mild & Hot Italian Sausage Seasoning.

My lasagna is resting now. I'll cut it up for freezing in about three hours!

And...in about an hour!


Quoting 764. presslord:

Th potential for drizzle and breeze is horrifying!!!


Ain't it, Pressy? Stay safe up there in coastal Charleston, SC, good sir.
URNT12 KNHC 011848
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012014
A. 01/18:23:20Z
B. 27 deg 42 min N
079 deg 18 min W
C. 925 mb 715 m
D. 37 kt
E. 321 deg 33 nm
F. 056 deg 34 kt
G. 321 deg 33 nm
H. EXTRAP 1003 mb
I. 20 C / 754 m
J. 22 C / 760 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 09
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF307 0201A ARTHUR OB 05
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 61 KT 130 / 44 NM 18:38:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
POSSIBLE EYEWALL SE-SW
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
URNT12 KNHC 011848
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012014
A. 01/18:23:20Z
B. 27 deg 42 min N
079 deg 18 min W
C. 925 mb 715 m
D. 37 kt
E. 321 deg 33 nm
F. 056 deg 34 kt
G. 321 deg 33 nm
H. EXTRAP 1003 mb
I. 20 C / 754 m
J. 22 C / 760 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 09
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF307 0201A ARTHUR OB 05
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 61 KT 130 / 44 NM 18:38:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
POSSIBLE EYEWALL SE-SW
whoah, possible eyewall,Arthur is strengthening.
Quoting 764. presslord:

Th potential for drizzle and breeze is horrifying!!!

Presslord it's fricken great to see you!!
Quoting 777. sar2401:


Heh...my brother's name is Arthur. He's 67. It was a reasonably popular name back in the day. Arthur Miller, Arthur Ashe...that kind of thing. :-)
yeah.. and there was that guy with the round table...
Interesting.

POSSIBLE EYEWALL SE-SW
Quoting 777. sar2401:


Heh...my brother's name is Arthur. He's 67. It was a reasonably popular name back in the day. Arthur Miller, Arthur Ashe...that kind of thing. :-)
yep so is my name Arthur,lineage all the way back to merry ole England,traced it in the 80's...wow what a trip that was
Quoting Weathergirlklein:


No thanks. We live in that zone, and there doesn't seem to be any reason to flee a TS, maaayybeeee Cat 1, if Arthur gets really lucky.

On another note, partly cloudy here, and temps in the 90s...again. :/ Wish we could get some decent rain, but most of the storms right now seem to be either developing right on top of us and drenching us, or developing somewhere else and then moving past us. Can someone send us some rain that's not too heavy?


Indeed. I was parodying blog hysteria.
Quoting 772. hurricanes2018:

Athur's outflow is looking very healthy its look like Athur's wanted to make landfall in Florida !!!

lets hope arthur hit nyc as cat 3 hurricane i hope so too!
Quoting 764. presslord:

Th potential for drizzle and breeze is horrifying!!!
be strong, and shout at the drizzle
Quoting 784. AllStar17:
Interesting.

POSSIBLE EYEWALL SE-SW


Has the COC relocated further south? I can't tell where the COC is currently established.
Quoting 772. hurricanes2018:

Athur's outflow is looking very healthy its look like Athur's wanted to make landfall in Florida !!!
yes we need to be very watchful for a more westward track,im not listening to much to the nhc on track this early on..way too much uncertainty with this storm...its doing What it wants,when it wants and models be damned lol...
Quoting JNTenne:
yeah.. and there was that guy with the round table...


Grother?
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Looks to me as if Arthur is beginning to shield himself from the large pool of dry air to his north. This is no small task to say the least and the latest convective burst to the north is having difficulty staying cold (probably from dry air). Nonetheless, he's looking better and more round with each satellite image. Imo recon will find 45-50kt max winds. Better outflow on the northern side would do wonders for the storm.
Quoting 773. barbamz:


I wonder for already a while whether Arthur will be able to tap into the moisture provided by the new tropical wave which is now reaching the mid Caribbean.

The slug of drier air between the two isn't going to help much. A more pressing concern for Arthur is whether it can moisten the atmosphere to the N and NW, to prevent dry air intrusion.
Recon transmission problem has been fixed finally. They just reached Arthur.
Arthur continues to serve me crow.
Quoting 791. Autistic2:



Grother?


GRRRRRRRRRRRR1.

Quoting 774. Methurricanes:

Seeing that the extra tropical transitions expand the storm, you could see bad conditions extend back into the Yarmouth area



I'm in Yarmouth and I'm starting to make plans accordingly. I was planning a trip this weekend but I may have to hold off. A 800km drive through a TS remnant is not my idea of fun.
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 1st day of the month at 18:48Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2014
Storm Name: Arthur (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 1st day of the month at 18:23:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 2742'N 7918'W (27.7N 79.3W)
B. Center Fix Location: 83 miles (134 km) between the NNE and NE (34) from West Palm Beach, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 715m (2,346ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 37kts (~ 42.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 33 nautical miles (38 statute miles) to the NW (321) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 56 at 34kts (From between the NE and ENE at ~ 39.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 33 nautical miles (38 statute miles) to the NW (321) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1003mb (29.62 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 20C (68F) at a pressure alt. of 754m (2,474ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22C (72F) at a pressure alt. of 760m (2,493ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 925mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 61kts (~ 70.2mph) at 1:30
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
/ 44 NM 18:38:30Z
POSSIBLE EYEWALL SE-SW
Navgem model 66 hours............................................. .................................................. ....
Gem model at 66 hours............................................. .......................
Quoting 777. sar2401:


Heh...my brother's name is Arthur. He's 67. It was a reasonably popular name back in the day. Arthur Miller, Arthur Ashe...that kind of thing. :-)


And also from back in the day King Arthur of Camelot! ;)
GFS at 66 hours.....outer banks etc....i'd be making preps soon....................................
808. MahFL
70 mph winds found ?
GDFL model at 66 hours............................................. ......................................
Euro model at 72 hours............................................. .........................
wow I take a quick break come back and find RECON discovering a storm 45+MPH 1003mb with possible eyewall developing on the SW and SE side things quickly going we might see hurricane conditions early
Quoting 808. MahFL:

70 mph winds found ?

Well above the surface.
probably a 40% chance this comes ashore in florida.......lets see tomorrow am huh...........................
814. MahFL
Quoting 812. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Well above the surface.


Ah, caught out again !..
Outflow is now readily apparent in the northeastern quadrant of Arthur, indicating a reduction in wind shear over the system. Dry air is still an issue, but the combination of low shear and warm sea surface temperatures should be able to overcome this. The biggest struggle for Arthur in the short term will be getting its inner core structure right, more specifically aligning its mid- and low-level circulations.

HWRF model at 72 hours............................................. .................................
Quoting 801. SFLWeatherman:

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 1st day of the month at 18:48Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2014
Storm Name: Arthur (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 1st day of the month at 18:23:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27�42'N 79�18'W (27.7N 79.3W)
B. Center Fix Location: 83 miles (134 km) between the NNE and NE (34�) from West Palm Beach, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 715m (2,346ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 37kts (~ 42.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 33 nautical miles (38 statute miles) to the NW (321�) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 56� at 34kts (From between the NE and ENE at ~ 39.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 33 nautical miles (38 statute miles) to the NW (321�) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1003mb (29.62 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 20�C (68�F) at a pressure alt. of 754m (2,474ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22�C (72�F) at a pressure alt. of 760m (2,493ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 925mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 61kts (~ 70.2mph) at 1:30
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
/ 44 NM 18:38:30Z
POSSIBLE EYEWALL SE-SW


Those are interesting coodinates
Quoting 815. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Outflow is now readily apparent in the northeastern quadrant of Arthur, indicating a reduction in wind shear over the system. Dry air is still an issue, but the combination of low shear and warm sea surface temperatures should be able to overcome this. The biggest struggle for Arthur in the short term will be getting its inner core structure right, more specifically aligning its mid- and low-level circulations.




The increased outflow should expand the moisture envelope further.
Fair

91°F

33°C

Humidity61%
Wind SpeedNW 14 mph
Barometer29.91 in (1012.9 mb)
Dewpoint76°F (24°C)
Visibility10.00 mi
Heat Index103°F (39°C)

Last Update on 1 Jul 2:53 pm EDT

Current conditions at

St. Petersburg / Clea (KPIE)

Lat: 27.91°N Lon: 82.69°W Elev: 10ft.

More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Wea

High temps are cooler today locally, likely due to last nights rounds of heavy thunderstorms soaking the ground. However, dew points are up from low 70's yesterday to mid-upper 70's now. So the heat index has still been 100-107 today.
Recon found flight-level winds near 60 knots with surface winds estimated near 50 knots in the southeast qudrant. Rain rate below 0.4"/hr.
I could very well be wrong, but it looks like the recent Hurricane Hunter pass just indicated that the system has moved slightly south.
Quoting 720. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Arthur barely escapes a landfall on the Outer Banks this run. Minimum pressure down to 974 millibars as it heads out to sea.
Quoting 720. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Arthur barely escapes a landfall on the Outer Banks this run. Minimum pressure down to 974 millibars as it heads out to sea.


Be interesting to see if a westward adjustment happens on later runs. The HWRF has it making landfall and going west of Hatteras.


Ok, it looks like the steering currents are going to bring it right up on Cape Cod, home of moi. You can see how it's going to get pulled up the coast. It's in a holding pattern right now, but it's going to start moving soon. It will all be timing and if the storm has any impact on the speed of those currents. Jog to east, good, jog to west, well, not good.

I have a bad feeling about this for some reason.
Acoording to RECON data the LLCOC is moving SSE
The persistent bursting convection is having a definite impact on the movement of the low-level circulation--a 10 mile drift south-southeast between passes according to recon.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The persistent bursting convection is having a definite impact on the movement of the low-level circulation--a 10 mile drift south-southeast between passes according to recon.

The pressure has also fallen a few tenths of a millibar as well, compared to the last VDM.


latest fix due south of earlier fix.
Quoting 815. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Outflow is now readily apparent in the northeastern quadrant of Arthur, indicating a reduction in wind shear over the system. Dry air is still an issue, but the combination of low shear and warm sea surface temperatures should be able to overcome this. The biggest struggle for Arthur in the short term will be getting its inner core structure right, more specifically aligning its mid- and low-level circulations.




Lol currently under a massive thunderstorm. Don't think I've ever seen such intense/frequent lightning ever.
Looks like RECON missed the LLCOC on the 3rd pass
RECON passed to the W of the LLCOC this indicates more SE movement
also found lower pressure 1000mb likely center has pressures around 999mb or less
RECON finds 999.7mb pressure
RECON finds 998MB
All showers fizzling as they move inland over the Central FL Peninsula. Not a drop today. Day 4 without measurable rain.

Arthur is really looking good at this hour. I would bet it will make it to hurricane status at this point. I will gladly eat my crow, since I predicted a few days ago it would likely not even become a tropical storm.
isnt this going in cape cod area?............................................. ....................................
Quoting 837. LargoFl:

20min lull.. everyone take a nap all of a sudden?
"I think I see a pinhole eye!" ;) Just kidding, but in all seriousness radar is seeming to suggest an eye forming in the convective mass.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST. ARTHUR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 4 MPH...6 KM/H. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARTHUR
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE AND MOVE EAST OF THE EAST-
CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY...PASS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA
TONIGHT...AND MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES ON THURSDAY.

SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60
MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS....AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY
THURSDAY. AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL
BE INVESTIGATING ARTHUR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
TODAY. IN ADDITION...WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE OCCURRING
INTERMITTENTLY ON ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THERE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.

RAINFALL...ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
THROUGH TODAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG PIERS AND
JETTIES. THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD
ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND GEORGIA TODAY. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
What's all the clutter in the Gulf? Anything to it?


I said this yesterday. Steering currents seem to suggest we here on Cape of Cod could be in for storm. Hopefully it jogs to the East.

If it rolls over the High pressure systems and gets sucked up by the Lows that caused the derecho in the Mid-West, Arthur will be saying hi to me. As I said, it's all going to be timing, and how much Arthur affects the systems already in place.