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Atlantic Hurricane Outlook for the Remainder of June

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:12 PM GMT on June 20, 2014

There were no tropical cyclones anywhere in the world on Friday, and none of the reliable models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis in the Atlantic (European, GFS, and UKMET) is predicting development over the coming five days. There is a tropical disturbance off the east coast of Florida that radar out of Melbourne, Florida shows some spin to. However, satellite loops show the area of heavy thunderstorms is very limited, and there is a lot of dry air interfering with thunderstorm development. Wind shear is a moderate 10 knots. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day development odds of 10%. The disturbance will likely head northeast out to sea over the weekend.


Figure 1. Tropical disturbance off the east coast of Florida as seen at 11:15 am EDT June 20, 2014. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Hurricane Forecast for the Remainder of June
Vertical wind shear is predicted to be very high over most of the tropical Atlantic the remainder of June, reducing the odds of tropical storm formation. With the active thunderstorm area of the MJO predicted to remain over the Pacific Ocean the rest of June, this will favor dry, sinking air over the Atlantic, further discouraging tropical storms from forming. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs), which are close to average over the Caribbean (an anomaly of +0.1°F) and cooler than average over the Gulf of Mexico (an anomaly of -0.2°F) will do no favors for any potential June tropical storms that try to form. If development does occur in June, the most likely location would be off the east coast of Florida, between the Bahamas and Bermuda, where SSTs are slightly above average and wind shear will be lower. Storms that form in this region are typically only a threat to Bermuda.

Since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995, six of the nineteen years (32%) did not have a named storm develop in June. I give an 80% chance that 2014 will join that list. The most recent year without a June named storm developing was the El Niño year of 2009. The highest number of named storms for the month is three, which occurred in 1936 and 1968. There were two June named storms in 2013, Andrea and Barry.


Figure 2. Predicted vertical wind shear between the 850 mb and 200 mb levels for 8 am EDT Friday, June 27, 2014, as predicted by the 00Z Friday, June 20, 2014 run of the European model. High wind shear is predicted for most of the tropical Atlantic, thanks to the presence of strong upper-level winds from the subtropical jet stream (marked with arrows.) Low wind shear (red colors) are predicted for the waters of the Bahama Islands and in the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico.


Figure 3. Vertical instability over the tropical Atlantic in 2014 (blue line) compared to average (black line.) The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere. Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Instability was been much lower than average during June, primarily due to dry, sinking air from aloft and outbreaks of dry air from Africa's Saharan Air Layer (SAL). Low instability reduces the potential for tropical storm formation. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS/CIRA.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 990. ricderr:

now i am not a fan of the cfsv2 enso anomaly forecast model...but i know many here are......so i'll use their graph in this post as they updated today....note...that while we had this huge spike....the models did not follow suit.....the means still show the highest chances are for a moderate el nino event




I suspect after the info from the CPC being released today that we could see the CFSv2 model update its initial reading for nino 3.4 as that graph isn't anywhere close to the values we have already which is why many forecasters are saying a strong El-Nino is still in the cards. Daniel Swain over at weatherwest had a very interesting post last night on his blog. Another thing of note the SOI is finally dropping and dropping pretty good now. Also PDO values for June should exceed 2.00 which argues for strong El-Nino. Anyways well see as the safe bet is a moderate event but a strong event is still very likely.

El Nio update: the tropical atmosphere might finally be getting its act together

The evolving El Nio event in the tropical Pacific Ocean continues to garner considerable media attention, and along with this heightened level of interest has come a rather wide array of dubious and often conflicting information. What follows is a quick recap of the relevant events thus far.

In early 2014, a very strong (and possibly record-breaking) oceanic Kelvin wave was initiated by a series of westerly wind bursts in the western tropical Pacific Ocean. The downwelling (warming) portion of this slow-moving wave propagated eastward towards the western coast of South America during the spring, and the warm temperature anomalies associated with this wave have now surfaced in the East Pacific. Substantial positive SST anomalies developed in April and May in the vicinity of the Galapagos Islands, and have since expanded in all directions (but most notably back westward along the equator). At the same time, westerly wind anomalies decreased in the West Pacific (with a total absence of observed synoptic-scale westerly wind bursts), which means that no new Kelvin waves have been generated since the very large one earlier this year. There has been some recent concern that the atmosphere was not reflecting the developing El Nio conditions in the tropical ocean, and some have suggested that this may be a sign that El Nio%u2019s development may have stalled or even fallen apart. Coupled ocean-atmosphere model projections suggested a slight weakening in the expected intensity of El Nio conditions to be observed during fall/winter 2014-2015.

However, over the past week, a remarkable (and rather surprising) rise in SST anomalies across much of the equatorial East Pacific Ocean caused the Nino 3.4 Index (the SST index typically used to characterize the state of ENSO) to rise well above the El Nio threshold of 0.5 C: the value on June 21st now stands at 1.05 C. This value is well above that projected by most models to occur for the rest of the summer. While the possibility exist that this is merely a transient spike in SST and that ocean surface temperatures will decrease again before rising later this summer, this may be a suggestion that the dynamical models are underestimating the potential strength of the developing event.

Rapid warming of the equatorial East Pacific has occurred in recent days. (NOAA/ESRL)

Another piece of interesting news on the El Nio front is that the large-scale atmospheric conditions in the tropical Pacific appear to be becoming rapidly more favorable for the development of westerly wind anomalies (and bursts) over the coming weeks and thus in reinforcing the developing warm SST anomalies in the canonical El Nio region. While considerable uncertainty remains, most models currently project an eastward propagation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (sidebar: the MJO is the predominant mode of intraseasonal atmospheric variability in the tropical Indian/Pacific oceans) signal into the West Pacific, which would provide additional evidence of El Nio%u2019s impending reinforcement. Should these forecasts indeed come to pass, a new equatorial Kelvin wave will likely be generated, which would help to reinforce El Nio toward the end of summer just when reinforcement will be most needed. Very recent model projections appear to be taking this evolution into account, since there has once again been an upswing in projected Nino 3.4 region anomalies for the fall/winter months.

What is the most important message at the moment regarding El Nio? Well, El Nio is essentially already underway, though its potential intensity during the fall/winter months remains uncertain. While the dynamical models project a peak likelihood of a moderate-strength event, a strong event remains eminently possible given recent atmosphere/ocean observations and the possibility that even our best models may have a tendency to under-predict strong El Nio events. Finally, as I%u2019ve pointed out frequently in the recent past: El Nio generally does not equate drought relief in California, though a particularly strong event would most likely prevent another dry year from occurring. And either way, the fact remains: we%u2019ve still got a long, dry summer ahead. Stay tuned.

2014 WEATHER WEST
Quoting 988. ncstorm:

Good Morning..nice tropical wave in the central atlantic




Nice means nice and nothing else.
Quoting 1000. prcane4you:

Every year is the same thing.Sal relaxing,dry air,sinking air,vertical wind shear........ fish
I'm being patient until the actual activity begins.
Only to 0.5 at 3.4 per CPC

From storm2k
Nino 3.4 bumped up to 0.5C. The drastic changes (that does match satellite) is Nino 3 which went up to 1C and 1 2 rose considerably to 2.1.
Quoting 988. ncstorm:

Good Morning..nice tropical wave in the central atlantic




Did you see how strong is the shear? Very nice too.
Quoting sar2401:

Thanks for those links. I'm a little confused now. Was the dome hit by the EF-4 or the EF-0 tornado in your link?
The heart of an EF4.

Ps. I shouldn't say that with such positivity. It was the EF4, the tornado designated C1. Depends on exact location of dome and where it was along the track. "Blanchard" is spread out over rural areas, and dome could have been anywhere from well west and NW of the town itself (as shown on the map at the NWS link) or in the area due N of town. The EF0 tail end of this thing is not in Blanchard. That area is Newcastle.

A look at the survey would be your only definitive answer as to the estimated wind speed at the dome - or a google earth file overlaid with damage photos and the winds speeds along the track of the tornado designated C1 on the NWS page I linked.

And to add to the confusion, when TA13 posted the first image of this dome, he stated it was in Chickasha, which did have some EF4 level winds NW of town as I recall from NWS and news reports at the time the surveys were done. Not sure on that.
1007. LargoFl
1008. ricderr
I suspect after the info from the CPC being released today that we could see the CFSv2 model update its initial reading for nino 3.4 as that graph isn't anywhere close to the values we have already which is why many forecasters are saying a strong El-Nino is still in the cards. Daniel Swain over at weatherwest had a very interesting post last night on his blog. Another thing of note the SOI is finally dropping and dropping pretty good now. Also PDO values for June should exceed 2.00 which argues for strong El-Nino. Anyways well see as the safe bet is a moderate event but a strong event is still very likely.


actually it appears that the model did update their original reading as it would appear to start at just above 0.7...which is where i think this weeks anomaly will be at when the freaking CPC finally releases their weekly update......remember....we might enjoy the daily values...but the experts focus on the weekly averages
1009. LargoFl
also a flood warning here too......................................SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
907 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014

TXZ158-231500-
BELL TX-
907 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
BELL COUNTY

AT 906 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED THE
LEADING EDGE OF GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
11 MILES NORTHEAST OF TEMPLE TO 2 MILES NORTHEAST OF FORT
HOOD...MOVING SOUTH AT 45 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE BELTON...FORT HOOD...
HARKER HEIGHTS...HOLLAND...KILLEEN...LITTLE RIVER-ACADEMY...MORGAN`S
POINT RESORT...NOLANVILLE...ROGERS...SALADO...TEMPLE AND TROY.

THE GUSTY WINDS MAY PRECEDE THE ONSET OF RAIN BY 20 OR 30 MINUTES.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE
STORMS.

LAT...LON 3075 9732 3088 9765 3090 9783 3103 9791
3107 9791 3132 9742 3124 9734 3128 9729
3127 9727 3099 9707 3089 9726
TIME...MOT...LOC 1406Z 341DEG 39KT 3121 9726 3113 9773

$$
Hi Scott, like the graph shows, their is a lot of cool to cold water below the ever decreasing warm pool. It looks like the EL Nino will peak at a moderate level if that high. The more the MJO passes through the Pacific basin the quicker the cool water will rise to the surface which may result in a weaker El Nino. I still don't understand why you are in favor of a strong El Nino which will cause a lot of hardships for people and wildlife. I prefer a weak to moderate Nino so it hopefully change the weather pattern in the Tropical Atlantic we have been in for the last few years. We are still in the warm AMO, cold PDO cycle so I do not expect a long or strong El Nino.
1011. ricderr
ok...CPC finally released their update......3.4 region...with all that grand daily chart topping.....could only eek out a 0.5 for the week.......read all about it here
1012. LargoFl
1013. StormWx
Quoting ricderr:
ok...CPC finally released their update......3.4 region...with all that grand daily chart topping.....could only eek out a 0.5 for the week.......read all about it here


Pretty steady at that 0.5C, though the jump the past few days is quite impressive. If this continues then we could have an official El Nino by September, as i stated before. Im thinking a weak to moderate El Nino, and maybe the SOI will finally play along?
Quoting 1010. NativeSun:

Hi Scott, like the graph shows, their is a lot of cool to cold water below the ever decreasing warm pool. It looks like the EL Nino will peak at a moderate level if that high. The more the MJO passes through the Pacific basin the quicker the cool water will rise to the surface which may result in a weaker El Nino. I still don't understand why you are in favor of a strong El Nino which will cause a lot of hardships for people and wildlife. I prefer a weak to moderate Nino so it hopefully change the weather pattern in the Tropical Atlantic we have been in for the last few years. We are still in the warm AMO, cold PDO cycle so I do not expect a long or strong El Nino.


Safe bet would be moderate el-nino but we have to see if Nino 3.4 can maintain levels near 1.0C this week because if they do then the CPC will raise nino 3.4 significantly next week. The rises across the enso regions didn't occur last week until Thursday.
1015. ricderr
well....as we go from looking at region 3.4 values daily to hourly....latest readings drop it once again.....albeit slightly....does this mean the westerly wind burst drivin by the MJO pulse is over..........tune in next time folks.....as....we'll cover this as if it's an hourly event even though it's gonna take months to come to some sort of fruition.... LOL


1016. StormWx
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Safe bet would be moderate el-nino but we have to see if Nino 3.4 can maintain levels near 1.0C this week because if they do then the CPC will raise nino 3.4 significantly next week. The rises across the enso regions didn't occur last week until Thursday.


Glad to have you back Scotty boy, havent seen you in here in a while, guess you've been waiting on the sidelines while the ENSO regions warm, so you could post how crazy and wild and amazing and insane the values are! :o)
1017. ricderr
Pretty steady at that 0.5C, though the jump the past few days is quite impressive. If this continues then we could have an official El Nino by September, as i stated before. Im thinking a weak to moderate El Nino, and maybe the SOI will finally play along?

september would validate the models at where they were at their longest period of where they are considered accurate and also before the spring barrier made their forecasts suspect....i'm still expecting it to be earlier....but that's just me....a much safer bet...and definitely more prudent...would be to follow the experts at the CPC.....they know more than any of us.....
1018. StormWx
Quoting ricderr:
well....as we go from looking at region 3.4 values daily to hourly....latest readings drop it once again.....albeit slightly....does this mean the westerly wind burst drivin by the MJO pulse is over..........tune in next time folks.....as....we'll cover this as if it's an hourly event even though it's gonna take months to come to some sort of fruition.... LOL




i like hourly, El Nino could happen an any minute Ric, you gotta be prepared! But according to STS we can expect to only see 5 storms in the Atlantic this year. So no need to worry about anything tropical, you can count on his prediction even if it is 'unofficial'.
1019. Patrap
Quoting 529. Naga5000:


"According to new data released this week, May 2014 is officially the warmest May in recorded history.

Both NASA and the Japan Meteorological Agency have tentatively ranked May at the top of historical measurements..."

"NASA uses a baseline set from 1951-1980 to determine how much a month's temperature deviates from normal. The agency's preliminary numbers show the combined global land and ocean temperature during May deviated from that baseline by about three-quarters of a degree Celsius, the most of any May since accurate records began in 1880. The 0.76 degree Celsius anomaly is tied for the sixth-largest anomaly for any month since 1880. All 10 of the biggest monthly temperature anomalies on record have occurred since 1995, according to NASA:"

Link
1020. Patrap
El Nino iz a scam.

The data is skewed.

Its the Sun,

Man cannot affect the Oceans.

It will hurt the economy.

: P
Good Morning. The current NHC 30% E-Pac probability is for the disturbance located off the coast of Mexico SW of the Baha Peninsula. The area of thunderstorms and convection exiting into the Pacific from Central America looks to be a strong candidate at some point as well:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/epac/rb-l.jpg
1022. ricderr

El Nino iz a scam.

The data is skewed.

Its the Sun,

Man cannot affect the Oceans.

It will hurt the economy.



i thought the paper you were doing weather for was in NOLA....sounds like the indian governement might be paying you to write for them...LOL
1023. Gearsts
Quoting 1018. StormWx:



i like hourly, El Nino could happen an any minute Ric, you gotta be prepared! But according to STS we can expect to only see 5 storms in the Atlantic this year. So no need to worry about anything tropical, you can count on his prediction even if it is 'unofficial'.
You have something agains STS?
1025. Patrap
noladefender.com is a on line site, cuz if they were printing, my check would be more like a Navy Admiral me thinks.

That E-Pac complex off of Central America is being sheared at the moment but convection very impressive and it is headed towards very favorable shear of 5-10 knots.  Have to see if it can persist and gain a little latitude (above 5n) to get some coreolis rotation going.  Probably a very slow burn but it might get a circle over the next 48 hours:

TCFP %

Shear

Instability


Caribbean starting to return to some form of normality


Sorry StormWx, but no I have not been on the sidelines as I was in Chicago busy with work and will be in Orleans in 3 weeks so there you go. Really could care less what you think as I blog what I see fit as does everybody else but I like how you always have your own interpretation of what I am always doing.
1029. StormWx
Quoting Gearsts:
You have something agains STS?


Of course not! I just think we will see 9-11 storms this year. Its my opinion, thats all, no one really knows what'll happen :o)
1030. Patrap
Dr. Jeff Masters will be speaking here Thursday the first day of the conference from 11:30-Noon EDT.

Lunch is also sponsored by wunderground.com



Portlight Conference, New Jersey

What: The Getting It Right Conference - Shelter and Transportation Accessibility for People with Disabilities during relief and evacuation efforts

When: June 26-27, 2014

Where: Sheraton Lincoln Harbor, Weehawken,NJ
Quoting 1010. NativeSun:

Hi Scott, like the graph shows, their is a lot of cool to cold water below the ever decreasing warm pool. It looks like the EL Nino will peak at a moderate level if that high. The more the MJO passes through the Pacific basin the quicker the cool water will rise to the surface which may result in a weaker El Nino.


You guys talking about the "cool pool under the warm pool" don't know what you're talking about. It's absolutely normal for colder SSTs to show up to the southwest of the warm pool during an El Nino. It's a natural reaction to subsurface temps migrating east, thus forming a deficit... this is honestly pretty obvious...



That's the subsurface pattern during July 1997. You know, the strongest El Nino ever? Notice anything similar about that cool pool?

Yeah...

I also question the assertion that the MJO has anything to do with a spike that huge in the 3.4 and 3 regions. If anyone has some data backing up that assertion that would be cool, but I've been studying El Nino for years and that makes no sense to me. The MJO causes subsurface water to travel to the east pacific, erupting there and getting carried east, IE the current MJO should have no bearing on those numbers unless it was the inactive MJO pushing already-warm waters westward into the 3 and 3.4 regions

But in any case that would be a real spike in numbers occuring from already-warm waters due east, not any kind of transitory spike due to the MJO.
On the Atlantic side, the June rains have still not materialized for the Sahel in Africa (their rainy season runs from June to October).  Another big plume of Atlantic dust; I am thinking this may be a huge factor in suppressing wave development in the Central Atlantic during the Aug-Sept peak unless it subsides:

1033. StormWx
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Sorry StormWx, but no I have not been on the sidelines as I was in Chicago busy with work and will be in Orleans in 3 weeks so there you go. Really could care less what you think as I blog what I see fit as does everybody else but I like how you always have your own interpretation of what I am always doing.


Glad you're back bubba! We enjoy your insight into whats going on in the ENSO regions and whats in store for us this hurricane season.
Quoting FOREX:


I translated it so I could comprehend your comment. It is not a personal attack against you.
And you had to post the translation so you could comprehend it? Nonsense. Look, the only reason your childish digs at Taz are tolerated is because there's no important weather event going on. So do yourself and the rest of us a favor, ok? Put Taz on ignore as you said you would, and stick to discussing the weather. TIA.
How can I get stalkers like the ones STS has?
1036. ricderr
noladefender.com is a on line site, cuz if they were printing, my check would be more like a Navy Admiral me thinks.


online or print......for newspapers online is their future.....something to be proud of pat either way
1037. StormWx
Quoting nuggyfresh:


You guys talking about the "cool pool under the warm pool" don't know what you're talking about. It's absolutely normal for colder SSTs to show up to the southwest of the warm pool during an El Nino. It's a natural reaction to subsurface temps migrating east, thus forming a deficit... this is honestly pretty obvious...



That's the subsurface pattern during July 1997. You know, the strongest El Nino ever? Notice anything similar about that cool pool?

Yeah...


Nice first post! What was your name before you were banned? lol
Quoting 1018. StormWx:



i like hourly, El Nino could happen an any minute Ric, you gotta be prepared! But according to STS we can expect to only see 5 storms in the Atlantic this year. So no need to worry about anything tropical, you can count on his prediction even if it is 'unofficial'.

Tell you what, why don't you find something more productive to do than sit here and ridicule Scott for this predictions? A forecast of 5-7 named storms isn't as outlandish as you're making it out to be; I'm calling for 8, Levi has a median of 9, and several other people are in this general vicinity. Will we go higher? Possibly. But it's also possible that Scott is right and we see a very slow hurricane season. The sea surface temperature configuration is not favorable, upper-level winds are not favorable, the vertical instability profile (across the tropical Atlantic) is not favorable. Wind shear is lower and sea surface temperatures are warmer in the subtropical Atlantic but pressures are high. Conditions are worse out there compared to even past El Nino years.

2009 - 9 named storms
1997 - 7 named storms
1994 - 7 named storms
1993 - 8 named storms
1992 - 7 named storms
1991 - 8 named storms
1987 - 7 named storms
1986 - 6 named storms
1983 - 4 named storms
1982 - 6 named storms

And so on.
Quoting 938. sar2401:


I don't understand that chart. What is the scale on the right supposed to mean?


Sorry for the late response Sar (I was able to sleep in!). The colors and values on the right indicate the chance of seeing severe thunderstorms somewhere in the US. For example, a light green would indicate about a 75% chance of severe weather somewhere across the US. I hope that clears things up. :)
1040. ricderr
You guys talking about the "cool pool under the warm pool" don't know what you're talking about. It's absolutely normal for colder SSTs to show up to the southwest of the warm pool during an El Nino. It's a natural reaction to subsurface temps migrating east, thus forming a deficit... this is honestly pretty obvious...


hmmm....first post is to trash another blogger...no hello...hey guys...glad to be amongst you......i smell troll
"Nice first post! What was your name before you were banned? lol "

Never posted, I just couldn't handle the misinformation. You guys are great when it comes to tropical development but seem to have a very tenuous grasp on El Nino at best, sorry that's just how I see it as someone who has studied El Nino for several years.
Holy cats! Look at the fights on the blog this morning! I would swear we were on The Real Housewives of Weather Underground with all of this.
I found a very good blog post on the SAL from VIIRS Imagery and Visualization Team Blog.

The title and some words in the paragraphs that follow are in Portugese. Click on the title to see the post below.

Abafado Bruma Seca
1044. StormWx
Quoting TimSoCal:
How can I get stalkers like the ones STS has?


Hype every situation imaginable! And tell us the future too :o)

But for the short future, summer time is here:

1045. fmbill
Quoting 1025. Patrap:

noladefender.com is a on line site, cuz if they were printing, my check would be more like a Navy Admiral me thinks.



Heading to NOLA on Thursday. Know any good restaurants for an early lunch?
Quoting 1042. WIBadgerWeather:

Holy cats! Look at the fights on the blog this morning! I would swear we were on The Real Housewives of Weather Underground with all of this.
LOL, Just scroll past the nonsense or ignore, it saves you the trouble and from becoming involved..
Quoting 1031. nuggyfresh:



You guys talking about the "cool pool under the warm pool" don't know what you're talking about. It's absolutely normal for colder SSTs to show up to the southwest of the warm pool during an El Nino. It's a natural reaction to subsurface temps migrating east, thus forming a deficit... this is honestly pretty obvious...



That's the subsurface pattern during July 1997. You know, the strongest El Nino ever? Notice anything similar about that cool pool?

Yeah...

I also question the assertion that the MJO has anything to do with a spike that huge in the 3.4 and 3 regions. If anyone has some data backing up that assertion that would be cool, but I've been studying El Nino for years and that makes no sense to me. The MJO causes subsurface water to travel to the east pacific, erupting there and getting carried east, IE the current MJO should have no bearing on those numbers unless it was the inactive MJO pushing already-warm waters westward into the 3 and 3.4 regions

But in any case that would be a real spike in numbers occuring from already-warm waters due east, not any kind of transitory spike due to the MJO.

In the absence of any appreciable forcing, trade winds were easterly for much of the past few weeks, allowing for a steady state or slight weakening of values. However, now that a strong MJO pulse has pushed eastward into the central Pacific, its associated westerly winds along the equator have allowed the upwelling to stop and waters to begin warming.
1048. Grothar
Another love fest on the blog this morning.?

1049. jpsb
Quoting 961. ScottLincoln:


Adjustments to different temperature datasets are necessary and have been done for many years. They are widely supported in the scientific literature. Without these adjustments, the temperature records would not be providing the correct information. I see that other commenters have already provided you some reading material to help you understand the topic better.


Adjusting past temperature data is a serious topic. I've looked around and really haven't found a good justification for the adjustments. But I have found a great deal of criticism for doing so.

"Spencer says that the data do need to be adjusted -- but not the way NOAA did it. For instance, Spencer says that urban weather stations have reported higher temperatures partly because, as a city grows, it becomes a bit hotter. But instead of adjusting directly for that, he says that to make the urban and rural weather readings match, NOAA “warmed the rural stations’ [temperature readings] to match the urban stations” -- which would make it seem as if all areas were getting a bit warmer."

The only justification I could find was this

Version 2.5 improved the efficiency of the algorithm.... more of the previously undetected break points are now accounted for," Smullen explained.

He added that the report also recalculated "the baseline temperatures [that] were first computed nearly 20 years ago in an era with less available data and less computer power."


http://www.foxnews.com/science/2013/01/10/hottest -year-ever-skeptics-question-revisions-to-climate- data/

I find it curious that the raw data shows no US warming since the 30's but the "adjusted" data shows the opposite. If I was cynical I might conclude that the historical temperature record might have been "adjusted" to match a computer climate model.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 1047. TropicalAnalystwx13:


In the absence of any appreciable forcing, trade winds were easterly for much of the past few weeks, allowing for a steady state or slight weakening of values. However, now that a strong MJO pulse has pushed eastward into the central Pacific, its associated westerly winds along the equator have allowed the upwelling to stop and waters to begin warming.


Right but would that account for more than doubled SST values in just a few days? That seems far fetched in my view.
Appears to be differences of opinion as to the current position, strength and future path of the MJO


The GFS is showing a surprise huh.
Quoting 1035 TimSoCal:
How can I get stalkers like the ones STS has?


Be careful what you ask for....
that storm off the coast of Texas and Louisiana, it seems to be tropical, it had high clouds, and it has some rotation, and it seems to have blown up in intensity after leaving Texas, might need to watch it.