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Eastern Pacific's Cristina no Threat to Land; Arabian Sea's TC 2 a Threat to Oman

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:21 PM GMT on June 10, 2014

The Eastern Pacific's third named storm of 2014 is here, as Tropical Storm Cristina spun into life late Monday night about 150 miles south of Mexico's Pacific coast. Satellite loops show that Cristina is still in the formative stages, but the combination of low wind shear and water temperatures that are a very warm 30°C (about 0.5°C above average) should allow Cristina to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane later this week. Cristina is headed away from Mexico, and it is unlikely that any watches or warnings will be required for this storm.

The formation of the Eastern Pacific's third storm of the season on June 10 comes nearly a month before the climatological average of July 5 for the usual appearance of the third storm. We've already had one hurricane in the Eastern Pacific this year (Category 4 Amanda, the strongest May hurricane ever observed in the Eastern Pacific), and the usual formation date for the second hurricane of the season is July 14. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 22, is calling for an active season, with around 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4.5 major hurricanes. This year is shaping up to be an El Niño year, and El Niño conditions typically increase the sea surface temperatures and decrease the vertical wind shear over the tropical Eastern Pacific, favoring the development of more and stronger tropical cyclones.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Cristina off the Pacific coast of Mexico.

Tropical Cyclone Two a threat to Oman
The North Indian Ocean has some activity today in the form of Tropical Cyclone Two, a tropical storm with 45 mph winds that has formed in the Arabian Sea. Tropical Cyclone Two is expected to head west-northwest toward Oman and intensify into a Category 1 storm later this week, though the intensity forecast is a difficult one, due to moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and the presence of dry air. The North Indian Ocean has two tropical cyclone seasons--one in May and June before the Southwest Monsoon arrives, and one in October - November after the Monsoon has departed.


Figure 2. True-color MODIS image from the Terra satellite of Tropical Cyclone Two over the Arabian Sea taken at approximately 6:30 am EDT June 10, 2014. The storm appears to be pulling in a plume of dust or pollution from the north, flowing off the coast of India (some sunglint reflecting off the water is making it difficult to tell for sure.) The coast of Oman can be seen at the left side of the image. Image credit: NASA.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis is predicting development over the coming five days. Strong upper-level winds, associated with the subtropical jet stream, are bringing high levels of wind shear over the tropical Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, and these high winds are forecast to persist for at least the next six days. The GFS model continues to predict that about 7 - 10 days from now the upper level winds over the Western Caribbean will relax and low-level moisture will build, potentially allowing a tropical disturbance with heavy rains to develop there. However, the European model keeps the wind shear high over the Western Caribbean early next week, so any development in the region remains in doubt. Arguing against any development in the Atlantic is the anticipated strengthening next week in the West-Central Pacific Ocean of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days. An active MJO in that part of the tropics tends to bring large-scale sinking motion to the tropical Atlantic and increased wind shear, which puts a damper on the chances of tropical storm formation in the Atlantic. The MJO is predicted to drift slowly eastwards into the Eastern Pacific by late June, which will tend to keep odds of tropical storm formation lower than average in the Atlantic into late June.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

thanx doc...although i'd like cristina's moisture to make its way northward
So it looks like it's going to be a while before we will see any action in the Atlantic Basin.
Thank you for the second update in 5 minutes Dr. Masters, probably the fastest blog ever with only 2 comments.

I am concerned about the tropical area of the Indian ocean with the storm developing over there.
The waters are very warm to provide catastrophic rains if nothing more.
Looks like a stormy day over the Bahamas. This extra moisture should help fire storms across Southern Fl. this afternoon.


Jeff-CapitalWeatherGang
10:38 AM EDT [Edited]
As much as we would love to see heavy snow in June…the big drops you observe are consistent with the same type of rain-forming process that characterizes tropical clouds - very efficient "collision-coalescence" process. These are shallow storms, devoid of lightning, and their highest tops barely show up in the satellite infrared. In other words, far from being actual thunderstorms - even though the radar presentation is very intense.

Radar-derived rain estimate is 4" now over PGCO, and this may be an under-estimate.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0935
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1010 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST MS/EASTERN LA AND SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL
AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 101510Z - 101615Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO SHOULD INCREASE BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY
MAINLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MS INTO SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL AL AND
PERHAPS PARTS OF EASTERN LA. PENDING DEVELOPMENT TRENDS...A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE REGION /MOST
PROBABLE ACROSS AL/ BY MIDDAY.

DISCUSSION...A MODESTLY-INTENSE SQUALL LINE CONTINUES AN EASTWARD
PROGRESSION ACROSS SOUTHERN MS AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN LA AS OF
1445Z...WITH THE FASTEST EASTWARD PROGRESSION OCCURRING ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL MS AT AROUND 30 KT. WHILE SOME THICKER CLOUD COVER
IMMEDIATELY PRECEDES THE SQUALL LINE...THE SQUALL-LINE PRECEDING AIR
MASS CONTINUES TO WARM COINCIDENT WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
/PREVALENT LOWER 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/. WITH INHIBITION ALREADY
VIRTUALLY NIL...STORM INTENSIFICATION IS PROBABLE INTO LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...PERHAPS ESPECIALLY NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF AN
OUTFLOW-INDUCED POINT OF INFLECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS INTO AL
WHILE SHOWERS/SOME TSTMS ALSO CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
LINE.

THIS POTENTIAL INTENSIFICATION WILL BE AS UPWARDS OF 2500-3000 J/KG
MLCAPE IS INCREASINGLY REALIZED /REFERENCE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING
FROM SLIDELL LA/. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER WINDS WILL
SOMEWHAT LAG THE SQUALL LINE...QUASI-LINEAR ORGANIZATION WILL BE
AIDED BY AN INCREASINGLY STRONG BELT OF SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL
WINDS /ESPECIALLY MS AND AL NORTHWARD/ IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BASE
OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH...ASIDE FROM SOME INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
WINDS.
What is going on?
Quoting 7. PedleyCA:

What is going on?


?????
From last blog or blog before last
Quoting 403. FOREX:



Where, near Panama?


No not really before it was mostly over Colombia from S of 12N
Now over the SW Carib from around S of 15N
Quoting 8. FOREX:



?????


I was referring to the 2 posts in 5 minutes, but this is the new site, so Deja Wu...
11. Ed22
I'm noticing something in the southern caribbean, is there a area of low pressure forming or just low level clouds swirling around. The is begining to Moisten up could there be something lerking around form; infact in jamaica here partly sunny and windy temperatures in the mid 80s.
Not a lot of cyclones hit the Arabian peninsula, but that might change in future.

From Wiki:
Cyclone Gonu (IMD designation: ARB 01, JTWC designation: 02A, also known as Super Cyclonic Storm Gonu) is the strongest tropical cyclone on record in the Arabian Sea, and is also the strongest named cyclone in the northern Indian Ocean.[1] The second named tropical cyclone of the 2007 North Indian Ocean cyclone season, Gonu developed from a persistent area of convection in the eastern Arabian Sea on June 1, 2007. With a favorable upper-level environment and warm sea surface temperatures, it rapidly intensified to attain peak winds of 240 km/h (150 mph) on June 3, to the India Meteorological Department. Gonu weakened after encountering dry air and cooler waters, and early on June 6, it made landfall on the easternmost tip of Oman, becoming the strongest tropical cyclone to hit the Arabian Peninsula. It then turned northward into the Gulf of Oman, and dissipated on June 7 after making landfall in southern Iran, the first landfall in the country since 1898.

Intense tropical cyclones like Gonu are extremely rare over the Arabian Sea, since most storms in this area tend to be small and dissipate quickly.[2] The cyclone caused 50 deaths and about $4.2 billion in damage (2007 USD) in Oman, where the cyclone was considered the nation's worst natural disaster. Gonu dropped heavy rainfall near the eastern coastline, reaching up to 610 mm (24 inches), which caused flooding and heavy damage. In Iran, the cyclone caused 28 deaths and $216 million in damage (2007 USD).
And 12Z GFS is starting out

Quoting 7. PedleyCA:

What is going on?
Quoting 8. FOREX:



?????


Oh wait you are confused Docs double blog
Yeah I think Doc Masters double posted his blog
Quoting PedleyCA:


I was referring to the 2 posts in 5 minutes, but this is the new site, so Deja Wu...


Yeah, there was a double blog post.
Quoting 11. Ed22:

I'm noticing something in the southern caribbean, is there a area of low pressure forming or just low level clouds swirling around. The is begining to Moisten up could there be something lerking around form; infact in jamaica here partly sunny and windy temperatures in the mid 80s.

Tropical wave
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ESTER
11:00 PM PhST June 10 2014
================================================= ======

"ESTER" has maintained its strength as it continues to move away from the country.

At 10:00 PM PhST, Tropical Depression Ester [1000 hPa] located at 22.7N, 123.5E or 270 km north northeast of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving northeast at 11 knots.

Additional Information
===================
Public Storm Warning Signal #1 now lowered.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 5–15 mm/hr within the 250 km diameter of the depression.

"ESTER" will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon which will bring moderate to heavy rains over Batanes group of Islands, Calayan and Babuyan group of Islands, Ilocos Region, Central Luzon and Metro Manila while the rest of Luzon will have occasional rains.

SevereStudios @severestudios · 1 min

Tornado Warning for Forrest and Lamar County in MS until 11:15am CDT.


SevereStudios @severestudios · 1 min

Tornado Warning for Lafayette and Vermilion Parish in LA until 10:45am CDT.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
DEPRESSION ARB01-2014
17:30 PM IST June 10 2014
===============================

At 12:00 PM UTC, The depression over east central Arabian Sea moved northwestwards and lay centered near 16.0N 68.0E, about 620 km southwest of Mumbai, 600 km south southwest of Veraval and 1090 km south east of Masirah Island (Oman).

It would move north northwestwards and intensify further into a deep depression during next 12 hrs. Subsequently it would intensify further into a cyclonic storm and move west northwestwards towards Oman coast.
June NMME update








NMME Users Guide


"ESTER" south of Okinawa, Japan
24. Ed22
Tropical storm Christina is looking even more healthy than yesterday, wind shear is low around 5 to 10 knots which is allowing the system to strengthen modestly. By evening tropical storm Christina could be much stronger around 65mph up from 45mph.
GFS has been trying to produce a Caribbean Low since the week of 5/16 or earlier.
Fast forward to today 6/10 and the GFS is still trying to spin up a Caribbean Low.

That's almost a month of backing up the clock. Eventually a low will form down in the Caribbean (July maybe?) just because it's hurricane season. I definitely wouldn't give the GFS any credit for predicting it.
scary stuff....this is from a newspaper in india.....india has tried to downplay el nino as the fear of lack of water...higher food prices....could lead to civil unrest and rioting...but this article....is an outright misrepresentation of facts....


El Nino may be ending, says Australian Met Bureau

VINSON KURIAN
SHARE · COMMENT (1) · PRINT · T+

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM, JUNE 9:
Is the Pacific suddenly turning favourable towards Indian monsoon?

This is the million-dollar question cropping up after the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has come up with a blinder of a breaking news.

The Bureau is now saying that the El Nino in the Pacific may be ending and the basin is now trending towards alter ego La Nina.

But the Bureau had earlier in the day detected a monsoon ''blocker" within India's own territorial waters in the form of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).

According to latest updates available, the Bureau says the El Nino process may be ending, if not ended already.
28. Ed22
I think there is something forming in the southern Caribbean, no more than an area of low pressure forming their guys, what's your take on it guy?
Quoting ricderr:
scary stuff....this is from a newspaper in india.....india has tried to downplay el nino as the fear of lack of water...higher food prices....could lead to civil unrest and rioting...but this article....is an outright misrepresentation of facts....


El Nino may be ending, says Australian Met Bureau

VINSON KURIAN
SHARE · COMMENT (1) · PRINT · T+

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM, JUNE 9:
Is the Pacific suddenly turning favourable towards Indian monsoon?

This is the million-dollar question cropping up after the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has come up with a blinder of a breaking news.

The Bureau is now saying that the El Nino in the Pacific may be ending and the basin is now trending towards alter ego La Nina.

But the Bureau had earlier in the day detected a monsoon ''blocker" within India's own territorial waters in the form of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).

According to latest updates available, the Bureau says the El Nino process may be ending, if not ended already.

Wut.
Wut.

that would be a wut wut!
Quoting 26. ricderr:

scary stuff....this is from a newspaper in india.....india has tried to downplay el nino as the fear of lack of water...higher food prices....could lead to civil unrest and rioting...but this article....is an outright misrepresentation of facts....


El Nino may be ending, says Australian Met Bureau

VINSON KURIAN
SHARE · COMMENT (1) · PRINT · T+

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM, JUNE 9:
Is the Pacific suddenly turning favourable towards Indian monsoon?

This is the million-dollar question cropping up after the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has come up with a blinder of a breaking news.

The Bureau is now saying that the El Nino in the Pacific may be ending and the basin is now trending towards alter ego La Nina.

But the Bureau had earlier in the day detected a monsoon ''blocker" within India's own territorial waters in the form of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).

According to latest updates available, the Bureau says the El Nino process may be ending, if not ended already.



Um that goes against the email that I got today

El Niño remains likely in 2014
The equatorial Pacific Ocean continues to warm, suggesting a developing El Niño pattern. The Bureau of Meteorology has issued an El Niño ALERT, indicating at least a 70% chance of an El Niño developing in 2014. See the Bureau's new ENSO Tracker to find out more about an El Niño ALERT.

The latest sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly across the NINO3.4 region (located in the central Pacific) is +0.6 °C. The SSTs in this region have steadily warmed since February, a clear sign of a developing El Niño. The SSTs in the tropical South Pacific near Tahiti are still near the long-term average for this time of year. Over the last few weeks Tahiti has seen anomalous high pressure values, thus keeping the SOI positive. The latest 30-day SOI value to 8 June is +8.7. The SOI suggests that the atmosphere is yet to respond to the warming SSTs in the Pacific.

See the Bureau's ENSO Wrap-Up including a compilation of ENSO computer model predictions for more information on the El Niño–Southern Oscillation.

Weekly Tropical Climate Note
Quoting 27. ricderr:

Japan says emergence of El Nino weather pattern getting closer

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/internat ional/world-news/japan-says-emergence-of-el-nino-w eather-pattern-getting-closer/articleshow/36336649 .cms



Be careful with Indian "Newpapers". India has many pay for placement news articles throughout many papers, even the legitimate papers. The news system over there is very different.

Edit: Meant to quote #26, but my point is still the same. :)
Quoting Ed22:
I think there is something forming in the southern Caribbean, no more than an area of low pressure forming their guys, what's your take on it guy?


Looks like a weak Low moving inland into Central America.
Latest GFS 138 hr..
Um that goes against the email that I got today 

it goes against what the ausies said also
Just wondering. Is this a comment?
Quoting 23. wunderkidcayman:


Hmm
Be careful with Indian "Newpapers". India has many pay for placement news articles throughout many papers, even the legitimate papers. The news system over there is very different.

yes.....i was perusing headlines about el nino this morning and that one stood out......
Hurricane Charley eye wall - Port Charlotte
Telephone poles flying through the air.

39. JRRP
Quoting 25. Sfloridacat5:

GFS has been trying to produce a Caribbean Low since the week of 5/16 or earlier.
Fast forward to today 6/10 and the GFS is still trying to spin up a Caribbean Low.

That's almost a month of backing up the clock. Eventually a low will form down in the Caribbean (July maybe?) just because it's hurricane season. I definitely wouldn't give the GFS any credit for predicting it.


Yes, but this low seems much stronger than any others the GFS has suggested. Plus, other models back it up. I am not saying we will or won't get a system, just something to consider.
Things could get rough for some folks including us..


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0936
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1034 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH/CENTRAL AL AND MIDDLE/EASTERN TN TO
CENTRAL/EASTERN KY AND FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 101534Z - 101730Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTENSIFY THROUGH LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AL AND MIDDLE TN
INTO PARTS OF EASTERN TN AND CENTRAL/EASTERN KY...AND POSSIBLY
PORTIONS FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...ALTHOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. ONE OR
MORE WATCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...A FRAGMENTED BOWING-PORTION OF A BROAD SQUALL LINE
CONTINUES TO STEADILY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL
TN...AS FAST AS 40-45 KT AS OF 1515Z. WHILE THIS PORTION OF THE LINE
IS LIKELY STILL SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...OVER TIME...A WARMING/MOISTENING
BOUNDARY LAYER /ESPECIALLY AS TEMPS APPROACH THE MIDDLE 70S F/ COULD
LEAD TO INTENSIFICATION AND/OR ADDITIONAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF TN/KY INTO THE AFTERNOON.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AT MID-MORNING SHOWS A CORRIDOR OF
RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE SKIES ACROSS MIDDLE TN INTO EAST-CENTRAL KY TO
THE SOUTH OF NORTHWARD-ADVANCING WARM FRONT. ALTHOUGH OVERALL
DESTABILIZATION WILL REMAIN MODEST /SUB-1000 J PER KG MLCAPE/...AN
INCREASINGLY STRONG/LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD WILL SUPPORT
DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL.

FARTHER SOUTH...AN INCIPIENT TREND OF INTENSIFICATION MAY ALREADY BE
OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF FAR WESTERN/NORTHWEST AL AS OF 1530Z
FOCUSED ALONG/IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF COMPOSITE OUTFLOW. CONTEMPORARY
MODIFICATIONS TO THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM BIRMINGHAM...TO
ACCOUNT FOR LOWER 80S F SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL AL AT
15Z...INDICATE NEGLIGIBLE INHIBITION WITH AROUND 2300 J/KG OF
MLCAPE.

..GUYER/MEAD.. 06/10/2014

Quoting 38. Sfloridacat5:

Hurricane Charley eye wall - Port Charlotte
Telephone poles flying through the air.

Charlie was scary.Imagine if it didn't make that sudden right turn into Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda (Not like it was any better).Tampa avoided a disaster....

Speaking of Punta Gorda don't you just love Florida real estate...

Apparently the new and retarded WU won't allow me to have two images in the same quote.So I had to delete yours..
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014
800 AM PDT TUE JUN 10 2014

Inner-core thunderstorm activity has increased during the past
several hours and two overnight ASCAT passes indicate that the
radius of maximum winds has contracted down to about 25 nmi, which
is more than a 50 percent decrease from this time yesterday. The
advisory intensity estimate of 40 kt is based on a blend of
satellite intensity estimates of T2.9/43 kt from UW-CIMSS, T2.5/35
kt from TAFB, and T2.0/30 kt from SAB, plus the appearance of a
partial mid-level eye noted in 1237 UTC TRMM microwave imagery.

The initial motion estimate is 275/04 kt. Both the track forecast
and reasoning remain unchanged. Cristina appears to have begun to
move out of a region of weak steering currents, and the cyclone is
expected to move steadily westward along the southern periphery of
a building deep-layer subtropical ridge located to its north. On
Day 2, the cyclone is forecast to turn west-northwestward at a
faster forward speed as Cristina strengthens and becomes a more
vertically deep system that will be influenced by stronger
deep-layer easterly steering flow. The NHC track forecast is
essentially just an update of the previous advisory track, and
follows the consensus model TVCE.

A large nocturnal thunderstorm complex that developed over central
Mexico has ejected a large band of southward-moving cirrus outflow
that appears to have temporarily increased the northerly shear
across Cristina overnight. However, that thunderstorm complex
has dissipated and water vapor imagery and satellite-derived winds
indicate that the upper-level shear has abated over the past
several hours. As a result, the environmental shear is forecast by
the SHIPS model to weaken today and continue to decrease through
at least the 72-hour period. This should allow for Cristina to
gradually strengthen despite being embedded within a relatively dry
mid-level moisture environment. By 96 hours and beyond, the cyclone
is forecast to move into a thermodynamically unfavorable
environment, over SSTs cooler than 26C, and encounter increasing
southwesterly shear, a combination that should induce gradual to
possible rapid weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to
the previous advisory and follows the multi-model consensus IVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 15.5N 102.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 15.6N 103.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 15.7N 105.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 15.9N 106.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 16.4N 107.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 17.7N 110.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 18.8N 112.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 15/1200Z 19.8N 115.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
I'm sure the NWS is watching these new cells closely. I wouldn't be suprised to see a watch box issued soon for this new area further to the north (edit - it's already issued).
This isn't supposed to be happening.

Link
Current Watch Box
Watch to the north
132HR 12Z GFS
Quoting 35. ricderr:

Um that goes against the email that I got today 

it goes against what the ausies said also


Um yes .... The Aussies send the info to anyone who wants it ! Its easier than checking erroneous news articles from India ....


Tuesday June 10, 2014
Tropical Storm Cristina
The third tropical depression of the eastern Pacific Ocean was upgraded by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to tropical storm Cristina on June 10, 2014 at 0300 UTC (8 PM PDT). The TRMM satellite had a good early morning view of Cristina on June 10, 2014 at 1238 UTC (5:38 AM PDT). Rainfall from TRMM's Microwave Imager (TMI) and Precipitation Radar (PR) are shown overlaid on an enhanced visible/infrared 1245 UTC image from the GOES-EAST satellite. TRMM TMI data show Large areas of moderate to heavy rainfall west of Mexico's coast.
The NHC predicts that Cristina will strengthen to hurricane intensity in the next few days while moving westward over the open waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean.
From Australian Government Department of Meteorology


Sorry I didn't have time to translate this from Australian to English.




El Niño likely in 2014

Based on the assessment on 3 June 2014, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Tracker status remains at El Niño ALERT level, meaning that there is at least a 70% chance of an El Niño occurring in 2014. Current observations and model guidance indicate an El Niño is likely to develop by spring.

El Niño conditions generally result in below average winter/spring rainfall over southern and inland eastern Australia, while southern Australia typically experiences warmer days.


Link
12z at 174 hours (forms a low around the 8 day time frame for the 3rd or 4th week in a row)

55. Ed22
I think the area of low which is forming could set up an area of interest in the coming new week if it don't fizzle out or could it our next invest, let see what happens.
Sorry I didn't have time to translate this from Australian to English.

not a problem.....it's a language i'm fluent in
whoohoo!!!!....el paso is gonna be stormin....break out the life rafts folks.......predicting up to a tenth of an inch....we're gonna get soaked!!!


Quoting 45. ColdInFL:

This isn't supposed to be happening.

Link



Yeh, if there's still a lump of ice in Lake Superior in June, that's a sure sign the planet's cooling.
Quoting ricderr:
scary stuff....this is from a newspaper in india.....india has tried to downplay el nino as the fear of lack of water...higher food prices....could lead to civil unrest and rioting...but this article....is an outright misrepresentation of facts....


El Nino may be ending, says Australian Met Bureau

VINSON KURIAN
SHARE COMMENT (1) PRINT T

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM, JUNE 9:
Is the Pacific suddenly turning favourable towards Indian monsoon?

This is the million-dollar question cropping up after the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has come up with a blinder of a breaking news.

The Bureau is now saying that the El Nino in the Pacific may be ending and the basin is now trending towards alter ego La Nina.

But the Bureau had earlier in the day detected a monsoon ''blocker" within India's own territorial waters in the form of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).

According to latest updates available, the Bureau says the El Nino process may be ending, if not ended already.


Not just a misrepresentation, a flat out lie.
cmc at 5 days....zip nada zilch!

ecmwf......at 5 days.......think bloggers will be twiddling their thumbs

Organizing tropical cyclone, best guess is a 80-85kt peak. Also, for whatever reason I'm completely unable to get on the NHC site, anyone else still having this problem?
gfs at 5 days says.......closed...no one is home

Quoting 62. CybrTeddy:

Organizing tropical cyclone, best guess is a 80-85kt peak. Also, for whatever reason I'm completely unable to get on the NHC site, anyone else still having this problem?



I was able to get on.
Let's not forget 1992 and 2004 were El Nino years. Those years produced Andrew, Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne. As long as I live near the coast I'll never let my guard down!
Not just a misrepresentation, a flat out lie.



teddy...i'm practicing my be nice skills today
Thanks for the post Dr.  Just noting as to the Atlantic that Sal continues to be pervasive in the Atlantic basin; still waiting for the June/July rain in the Sahel to start to make a dent in all the dust:


Quoting 69Viking:
Let's not forget 1992 and 2004 were El Nino years. Those years produced Andrew, Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne. As long as I live near the coast I'll never let my guard down!

El Niño dissipated several months before August 1992. 2004 was a Modoki, not a traditional, El Niño.
Quoting 62. CybrTeddy:

Organizing tropical cyclone, best guess is a 80-85kt peak. Also, for whatever reason I'm completely unable to get on the NHC site, anyone else still having this problem?



No.

12Z GFS must be broken.
71. Ed22
Quoting 68. TropicalAnalystwx13:


El Niño dissipated several months before August 1992. 2004 was a Modoki, not a traditional, El Niño.


And the 2004-5 El Nino was a weak affair, just exceeding the 0.5C threshold for a period
Whether they were weak or dissipating El Nino years doesn't discount the fact they were considered El Nino years, look it up. The only point I'm trying to make is just because it's beginning to look like an El Nino year don't think strong hurricanes can't form and still hit the US. We have no idea how strong or weak this El Nino might be.
Quoting 70. FOREX:

12Z GFS must be broken.


Not really ... ncep working fine

Quoting CybrTeddy:
Organizing tropical cyclone, best guess is a 80-85kt peak. Also, for whatever reason I'm completely unable to get on the NHC site, anyone else still having this problem?

Yes, and the SPC, and the NWS. Still having the same intermittent problems that I've had since June 1. I have no idea why it seems to only affect some of us.
Just for the curious - fantasy land

GFS brings the low up into the GOM and it dissipates this run.

Quoting 75. sar2401:


Yes, and the SPC, and the NWS. Still having the same intermittent problems that I've had since June 1. I have no idea why it seems to only affect some of us.

Have you tried flushing your DNS Link or using Google's public DNS Link? I recently switched to using Google's public DNS and it solved some connection issues I was having to specific IP's.

SevereStudios @severestudios · 7 seg

Tornado Warning for DeKalb County in TN until 1:00pm CDT.

Quoting sar2401:

Yes, and the SPC, and the NWS. Still having the same intermittent problems that I've had since June 1. I have no idea why it seems to only affect some of us.


I can't see any satellite imagery posted either, very odd.
Thunder is rumbling here in South Fort Myers. Storms are coming in early today.
Quoting 68. TropicalAnalystwx13:


El Niño dissipated several months before August 1992. 2004 was a Modoki, not a traditional, El Niño.


For 1992 depends on which climatology you use. With "old" climatoloty last El Nino season was JJA. For "new" climatology was MJJ. If one were to keep replacing "old" climatology with "new" climatology, eventually we will have no historical El Ninos.
Whether they were weak or dissipating El Nino years doesn't discount the fact they were considered El Nino years, look it up. The only point I'm trying to make is just because it's beginning to look like an El Nino year don't think strong hurricanes can't form and still hit the US. We have no idea how strong or weak this El Nino might be.


weak...moderate....strong...the result is....about 8 hurricanes per year...and below average us landfall....has no bearing on if or how strong a storm may hit the us....it just is what it is
Quoting ricderr:
Whether they were weak or dissipating El Nino years doesn't discount the fact they were considered El Nino years, look it up. The only point I'm trying to make is just because it's beginning to look like an El Nino year don't think strong hurricanes can't form and still hit the US. We have no idea how strong or weak this El Nino might be.


weak...moderate....strong...the result is....about 8 hurricanes per year...and below average us landfall....has no bearing on if or how strong a storm may hit the us....it just is what it is


Yep, all it would take is one major hurricane striking the U.S. and it will be considered a bad season.
12Z GFS looking fine
This is a beautiful and interesting storm to watch form.
Quoting 85. flsky:

This is a beautiful and interesting storm to watch form.


Sure has that traditional standard developing storm look
Quoting 77. Naga5000:


Have you tried flushing your DNS Link or using Google's public DNS Link? I recently switched to using Google's public DNS and it solved some connection issues I was having to specific IP's.
Another alternative is OpenDNS. It's free. I replaced TimeWarner Cable's DNS with it and it resolved my connection problems with several .gov weather related sites.
Quoting 68. TropicalAnalystwx13:


El Niño dissipated several months before August 1992. 2004 was a Modoki, not a traditional, El Niño.
And even in Modoki activity was suppressed in the months of June and July. Another interesting facts are that both season first storms were majors. Btw another year that was Modoki and have a lot of activity?
Quoting 85. flsky:

This is a beautiful and interesting storm to watch form.



If she continued organize and build deep convection...i must say...we'll see a RI ....We have a well organized outflow...organized storm and hot water....and we have a slow movement also
If she continued organize and build deep convection...i must say...we'll see a RI ....We have a well organized outflow...organized storm and hot water....and we have a slow movement also

1st....i see the eye...
TC 2. The UW Madison estimates on strength are much more powerful than what is being reported.

A great and informative entry. Thanks Dr. M.
94. jpsb
Quoting 37. ricderr:

Be careful with Indian "Newpapers". India has many pay for placement news articles throughout many papers, even the legitimate papers. The news system over there is very different.

yes.....i was perusing headlines about el nino this morning and that one stood out......


Joe Bastardi's take on El Nino, starts at 5:02



http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-june- 7-2014

Quoting 84. wunderkidcayman:

12Z GFS looking fine


Wouldn't go past 138 hours for me on Levi's site. So the low dissipates?
It look so nice out! :P
Quoting 96. SFLWeatherman:

It look so nice out! :P



Those storms should help with the heat. The diurnal storms seem to develop earlier in the day in South FL than here. It is sweltering here but we should get some much needed thunderstorms in the next few hours.
Quoting LowerCal:
Another alternative is OpenDNS. It's free. I replaced TimeWarner Cable's DNS with it and it resolved my connection problems with several .gov weather related sites.


Hey sar, do you mind giving this a try and seeing how it works? Busy at the moment with class, thanks!
Good afternoon/evening/whatever, weather fellows.
BBC dignified our French and German severe weather with a special video explanation:

Storms wreak havoc across Europe
BBC weather video, 10 June 2014 Last updated at 16:40
At least six people have been killed in Germany as a string violent storms swept across Europe. BBC Weather's Peter Gibbs has the details.


(Saved image). Storms are firing up, but until now nothing at my place Mainz.


Current warning situation in Germany, already with a purple one (will update and expire).


Estofex has recently launched a special Mesoscale Discussion. Go here to read the details.
T storms spreading to the north.
Eye aye, captain.

Storms are getting a little more serious looking across Alabama.
The "new" HWRF is now in operations, less aggressive than the GFDL, at least this run:




Hey guys its buhdog checking in from Cape Coral! Ready for another season here in South Florida snd I am especially digging this new mobile site for us to sneak on to.

Personally I don't like el nino. Stay safe yall.
Quoting 95. FOREX:



Wouldn't go past 138 hours for me on Levi's site. So the low dissipates?

Still show storm but when it gets into the GOM and nearing the Gulf coast it weakens back to a weak low before it makes it's landfall
Starting to keep with timing trend has started on that with 00Z 06Z and now 12Z

Let's see what 18Z has to offer
Cristina is looking pretty great right now. I'd say it's pretty likely we see it upgraded to a hurricane by the end of the day.
And as usual CMC/GEM shows not much maybe some moisture for the W Carib
However it show TS Douglas and TD 5E possibly becoming a TS Elida
As usual the constantly making cyclones model is well making cyclones
Quoting 106. Ameister12:

Cristina is looking pretty great right now. I'd say it's pretty likely we see it upgraded to a hurricane by the end of the day.


Yeah why not
Quoting Ameister12:
Cristina is looking pretty great right now. I'd say it's pretty likely we see it upgraded to a hurricane by the end of the day.


Surf is going to start pumping on the Mexican coast.
Quoting Ameister12:
Cristina is looking pretty great right now. I'd say it's pretty likely we see it upgraded to a hurricane by the end of the day.

Might be entering a period of rapid intensification as it mixes out the dry air that got entrained off the mountains of Mexico last night.

Hmm. Interesting. My area too
Quoting 68. TropicalAnalystwx13:


El Niño dissipated several months before August 1992. 2004 was a Modoki, not a traditional, El Niño.


What about 1965?
Good evening Everyone!
The last two days have been warm and stormy here, with highs up to 23c (74F) and constant heavy rain showers. We had an intense thunderstorm yesterday and we had another one today. Quite unusual to have thunder two days in a row here. The power went out at my school today, not easy doing an art project in the dark lol! Tomorrow should hopefully be a little calmer.

UK rain radar
The GFS is not to be trusted until we see an actual Low form.

The GFS has been producing a Western Caribbean Low that moves up into the Southern GOM since mid May (4 weeks ago).

The weather is..................... ://



I want a wet tropical storm at 17N 62W with very cold cloud tops...
Quoting 105. wunderkidcayman:


Still show storm but when it gets into the GOM and nearing the Gulf coast it weakens back to a weak low before it makes it's landfall
Starting to keep with timing trend has started on that with 00Z 06Z and now 12Z

Let's see what 18Z has to offer




Don't matter, this has been going on for 3 weeks in the GFS. It's convective feedback issues. Not to say something might get going, but it won't happen for at least 10 days.
Getting rough here too..


Nashville, TN (KOHX) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)
Quoting 114. Sfloridacat5:

The GFS is not to be trusted until we see an actual Low form.

The GFS has been producing a Western Caribbean Low that moves up into the Southern GOM since mid May (4 weeks ago).


Quoting 116. scottsvb:





Don't matter, this has been going on for 3 weeks in the GFS. It's convective feedback issues. Not to say something might get going, but it won't happen for at least 10 days.

For the first 2 weeks it showed a low that ended up becoming 90L
For the past week and a half nearly 2 weeks it shows another low forming in the W Caribbean

I'm not seeing any tropical storms for the next 5-6 days but we might get an invest starting day 7/8 and onwards inhe W Carib
Quoting weatherbro:


What about 1965?

A moderate to strong El Niño during the season.
Quoting 117. Gearsts:



Yep as expected 1+2 is dropping
Quoting 118. hydrus:

Getting rough here too..


Nashville, TN (KOHX) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)


That looks nasty!! Be careful!
Quoting 121. wunderkidcayman:


Yep as expected 1+2 is dropping

Current Niño 3, 3.4, and 4 is also falling
Mmm Modoki...
The MJO is still slated to approach the East Pacific by late month. That should be the last straw for a moderate full-basin El Niño.
Cristina still looks sloppy.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The MJO is still slated to approach the East Pacific by late month. That should be the last straw for a moderate full-basin El Niño.

So you would say it is imminent, not that you are repeating what someone else said.
trending up


trending flat

Mmm Modoki...


mmmmm......nope......LOL
131. silas
Quoting Ameister12:
Cristina is looking pretty great right now. I'd say it's pretty likely we see it upgraded to a hurricane by the end of the day.


Hmmmm, possibly, though it looks to me like it's "eye" may acually be a sign that it still has more dry air to mix out before it can intensify too much more. It's organization is pretty impressive though.
Quoting 124. CaribBoy:

Mmm Modoki...
Modoki won't make and active atlantic season
gives el nino at 70% shot. so that means 30 times out of 100 times it does not materialize. wasnt el nino forecast last yr? it petered out nevertheless 2013 was inactive
Quoting 124. CaribBoy:

Mmm Modoki...
Quoting 132. Gearsts:

Modoki won't make and active atlantic season

Nope but it would make mare landfalling canes like in 04
Thanks!

I wonder is the Atlantic is getting another bust..
Quoting 134. wunderkidcayman:


Nope but it would make mare landfalling canes like in 04


But the pre-requisite for an active season is still required before we see landfalling canes.

Edit: Spellchecker thinks a word is not a word. Wow.
Quoting 135. pie314271:

Thanks!

I wonder is the Atlantic is getting another bust..
More than likely yes.You'll just have to wait until 2015 for a real hurricane season.If history is repeating it's self and 2013,2014 are just like 1993,1994 then perhaps 2015 would have to be watched.For those of us alive during 1995 and based on the history books we all know how the season ended up...Seasons that end with a 5 are typically bad for the Atlantic.

Until then someone message me when a actual storm is in the Atlantic and not something on a model 7 days away from now.
Quoting 109. Sfloridacat5:



Surf is going to start pumping on the Mexican coast.


We don't get good surf from these types of systems along the west coast of Mexico. The storm is too close and the wind is side or on shore most of the event anyway. Baja Sur gets the good surf from East Pac hurricanes when they stay to the south and go cat 3 or higher. The thing is mainland Mex has a steady supply of ground swell at this time of year from the Southern Hemisphere so Tropical systems are really just a headache for us.
Quoting 125. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The MJO is still slated to approach the East Pacific by late month. That should be the last straw for a moderate full-basin El Nio.

This next MJO pulse could aid in the development of 1-2 more storms in the Eastern Pacific by the beginning of July, and perhaps our first storm in the Atlantic as we approach the end of the month.

Tropical Storm Cristina has some of the best structure in a tropical storm that I've seen in quite awhile. She reminds me a lot of a Western Pacific storm. Broad and Vigorous in Vorticity. The storm is under a low shear environment and is over SST's of of 28C. Though intensification will likely be gradual to occur due to the broad nature of the storm, and the occasional dry air intrusion that has been evident since the storm's formation.

Currently it appears dry air has once again forced it's way into Cristina's core, noted by the portrayed "eye" feature near the center. This is likely going to hinder any quicker pace of intensification until she can manage to filter out the dry air, and establish a solid core again.

According to satellite estimates, the initial intensity of Cristina is near 50 Mph. Though the storm is intensifying, any further intensification will continue to be slow to occur, and conditions (SST's and relative moisture) around the storm will only deteriorate as she moves away from Mexico. With this said, I believe a peak intensity of 60-65 knots is a fair estimate of what she may become before weakening out in the open ocean, southwest of the Baja Peninsula.
141. FOREX
It's so refreshing to see Dave Schwartz on The Weather Channel again. I only watch when he is on. The saturation of reality shows gets on my nerves.
Quoting 132. Gearsts:

Modoki won't make and active atlantic season


All I want is many tropical waves with good rain in the NE Caribbean... and ideally a strong TS/cat 1 lol. But even the rain doesn't want to come.... sigh...........
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

For the first 2 weeks it showed a low that ended up becoming 90L
For the past week and a half nearly 2 weeks it shows another low forming in the W Caribbean

I'm not seeing any tropical storms for the next 5-6 days but we might get an invest starting day 7/8 and onwards inhe W Carib


The GFS has been producing a Low for a month that moves up towards Florida.
At first the low formed all around the Yucatan area and moved up towards Florida. At the same time the GFS kept a secondary low down in the bottom of the BOC that just sat there.
Then the GFS switched and started forming the Low in the Western Caribbean area and moving it up towards Florida or the GOM.


The point is the GFS has been completely wrong with its long range forecast (7 or more day out) for at least the past 3- 4 weeks.
Quoting 142. CaribBoy:



All I want is many tropical waves with good rain in the NE Caribbean... and ideally a strong TS/cat 1 lol. But even the rain doesn't want to come.... sigh...........
CFS is showing the ITCZ shifting north by the end of June to early July
looks like a no go for rain today west of I75/riverview area. been very very dry and hot. even on the days last couple of weeks when we had the tornado and all the rain nothing over here. i live near the bay i wonder how that affects all this rain that seems to "go around" this area
5" of rain in 3 hours at my College Park home. 4" in an hour. Basement well was overwhelmed; sliding glass door in looked like an aquarium (sans fish). 400L or so got IN the house. Sanitary sewers backed up and other neighbors had brown geysers in their basements. Sadly but fortunately I'm prepared and I only had a trickle of THAT after stopping up all of the drains and entries.
This is why I worry about flash flooding.

Drying out now; AC set to 66 to speed evaporation and condensation is now happening on OUTSIDE window surfaces.

The rain came from an innocuous little cell which backbuilt and expanded slowly south. Element movement was perhaps 5-10 knots northeast but backbuilding caused a net slow propagation south.

This happens several times most summers over small areas in DC and this time I drew the lemons.

TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014
200 PM PDT TUE JUN 10 2014

Although inner-core thunderstorm activity has increased at times
since the previous advisory, it has been unable to persist as a
central dense overcast feature due to entrainment of dry mid-level
air. The result is that Cristina looks much better in visible
imagery than it does in IR data, and this is mainly due to the cloud
pattern being comprised of mostly dissipating cirrus clouds. Having
said that, microwave and conventional satellite imagery have been
hinting at the formation of a 30 nmi diameter eye-like feature
during the past several hours, but the cyclone has thus far been
unable to sustain that development trend owing to the aforementioned
dry air intrusions. The advisory intensity of 45 kt is based on a
blend of satellite intensity estimates of T3.0/45 kt from both TAFB
and UW-CIMSS ADT.

The initial motion estimate remains 270/04 kt. Cristina is expected
to continue moving generally westward and accompanied by a gradual
increase in forward speed as the cyclone comes under increasing
influence from a strengthening subtropical ridge that extends
westward from northern Mexico to west of Baja California. By 48
hours, Cristina is forecast to turn west-northwestward around the
southwestern periphery of the ridge, and that motion is expected to
continue through Day 5. The NHC track forecast is just an update of
the previous advisory track, and lies south and west of the
consensus model TVCE due to the GFDL model having a sharp
right-of-track bias from the outset of the forecast.

Upper-level shear is forecast to decrease to less than 5 kt during
the next 72 hours while Cristina remains over SSTs warmer than 28C.
This should allow the cyclone to at least gradually strengthen for
the next 24 hours or so despite the occasional dry air intrusions
that will disrupt the inner core convection and the intensification
process. However, if Cristina can somehow manage to close off an
eye despite the relatively dry mid-level environment, then rapid
strengthening during the next 24 hours or so would likely occur in
such a low vertical wind shear regime. By 96 hours and beyond, the
combination of much cooler sea-surface temperatures, drier and more
stable air, and increasing southwesterly wind shear should produce
gradual to possible rapid weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is
similar to the previous advisory and follows the consensus intensity
models IVCN and ICON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 15.5N 103.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 15.6N 104.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 15.8N 105.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 16.1N 107.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 16.7N 108.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 18.1N 111.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 14/1800Z 19.2N 113.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 15/1800Z 20.0N 115.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart
Not much rain yet here in Maitland, but we just had an impressive sudden wind burst from the south. I could hear it coming for about 30 seconds and initially thought it was torrential rain.
Here's one of my saved images from the GFS run on May 15th.
Quoting 145. Gearsts:

CFS is showing the ITCZ shifting north by the end of June to early July



I hope the CFS is right :-) But I'm not too optimistic.
Quoting 147. georgevandenberghe:

5" of rain in 3 hours at my College Park home. 4" in an hour. Basement well was overwhelmed; sliding glass door in looked like an aquarium (sans fish). 400L or so got IN the house. Sanitary sewers backed up and other neighbors had brown geysers in their basements. Sadly but fortunately I'm prepared and I only had a trickle of THAT after stopping up all of the drains and entries.
This is why I worry about flash flooding.

Drying out now; AC set to 66 to speed evaporation and condensation is now happening on OUTSIDE window surfaces.

The rain came from an innocuous little cell which backbuilt and expanded slowly south. Element movement was perhaps 5-10 knots northeast but backbuilding caused a net slow propagation south.

This happens several times most summers over small areas in DC and this time I drew the lemons.


I only got a little shower here in N.W D.C.I saw the pictures.Pretty interesting.Another round of heavy rain and gusty storms are on the way.The moisture content outside is very high.
Fast forward 11 days to May 26th GFS run.
It showed the Low moving into Florida on June 7th (last Sunday).

Just noting that the word "bust" in terms of the Atlantic season is overly used and/or misunderstood.  Based upon the long established climatology, El Nino years generally have lower than average seasons, Neutral average numbers, and La Nina higher then average based upon the generally accepted 10 storm overall average.  If the total numbers of storms for any given season, that cannot logically be tallied until the end of the season, do not materialize based on the forecast numbers from the major prediction outlets (whether upwards or downwards), the season either underperformed or over performed.  2005 is a good example, although extreme, of an over performing season.

My point is that there is no such thing as a "bust" Atlantic season in recent history; in my mind, a bust would be no tropical storms in any given season.  That has never happened in the modern record in terms of the Atlantic Season.  Closest, was the 1914 season when only one storm formed.............I would still consider that year a "bust"............................................ ................... :)
Good night from Germany with some guesses on Cyclone 2A in the Indian Ocean. How can a southwesterly (!) track - as is said in the article below - hit India?

Oman Weather: Depression in Arabian Sea intensifies, heads northwest
by Rahul Das | June 10, 2014 , 11 : 18 pm GST
Muscat: The low-pressure area in the Arabian Sea has already intensified into a depression. The depression was situated 1,090km away from Masirah Island.
However, it is not sure which path it would take as it depends on the direction it will be heading from its point of origin in the sea.
"If the direction of the depression is northwesterly, the system would go towards the Oman coast but if the direction of the depression is south westerly, then it would head towards India," a senior official of the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Tuesday. ...









I guess the northern track might be right ...

--------------------------

No severe weather action in my place yet. Weather enthusiasts in my area are deeply disappointed, lol. But there is one severe storm underway more north of us which just caused severe flooding in the (quite big) town of Kassel. Hope there aren't any victims connected with this.


Saved loop. Source for updates.


German weather radar. You see the one and only severe storm in the middle. Pic will update though.

Have a nice evening!

Anyone looking at the GFS beyond the 3-5 day time frame needs to understand that its not to be trusted.
Spent the last 4 days on Lake June in Lake Placid Florida... Quite a lightning show Sunday night.... I was exposed to a terrible, terrible biting fly known as the "yellow fly" as soon as it starts to get dusk...Worse than a deer fly.....Not fun at all.....
Quoting 136. Astrometeor:



But the pre-requisite for an active season is still required before we see landfalling canes.

Edit: Spellchecker thinks a word is not a word. Wow.

Try the auto text on the IPad and IPhone it's too funny

Quoting 137. Ameister12:



Either Hurricane or near to Hurricane
159. FOREX
Quoting 157. PalmBeachWeather:

Spent the last 4 days on Lake June in Lake Placid Florida... Quite a lightning show Sunday night.... I was exposed to a terrible, terrible biting fly known as the "yellow fly" as soon as it starts to get dusk...Worse than a deer fly.....Not fun at all.....


Hope you feel better. We have those flies here in Panama City Beach also right now.
Big time storms across Central Fl.
Down here in Fort Myers it's only 78 degrees from the rain cooled air from the T storms earlier today.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
3:00 AM JST June 11 2014
=============================

Subject: Tropical Depression In Sea South Of Okinawa

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (998 hPa) located at 23.1N 123.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving northeast at 8 knots.
Quoting 159. FOREX:



Hope you feel better. We have those flies here in Panama City Beach also right now.
FOREX.... Any repellant fix for them?
Quoting 155. barbamz:

Good night from Germany with some guesses on Cyclone 2A in the Indian Ocean. How can a southwesterly (!) track - as is said in the article below - hit India?


Lakshadweep region if it was heading southwesterly and then eastward..
Quoting TylerStanfield:

This next MJO pulse could aid in the development of 1-2 more storms in the Eastern Pacific by the beginning of July, and perhaps our first storm in the Atlantic as we approach the end of the month.

Tropical Storm Cristina has some of the best structure in a tropical storm that I've seen in quite awhile. She reminds me a lot of a Western Pacific storm. Broad and Vigorous in Vorticity. The storm is under a low shear environment and is over SST's of of 28C. Though intensification will likely be gradual to occur due to the broad nature of the storm, and the occasional dry air intrusion that has been evident since the storm's formation.

Currently it appears dry air has once again forced it's way into Cristina's core, noted by the portrayed "eye" feature near the center. This is likely going to hinder any quicker pace of intensification until she can manage to filter out the dry air, and establish a solid core again.

According to satellite estimates, the initial intensity of Cristina is near 50 Mph. Though the storm is intensifying, any further intensification will continue to be slow to occur, and conditions (SST's and relative moisture) around the storm will only deteriorate as she moves away from Mexico. With this said, I believe a peak intensity of 60-65 knots is a fair estimate of what she may become before weakening out in the open ocean, southwest of the Baja Peninsula.

Call me bullish, but I think we will see more significant intensification over the next day as it pulls away from Mexico. The dry air further west won't be an issue without shear. I think this will make a run at Category 2 intensity, peaking between 75-85kt.
Quoting 157. PalmBeachWeather:

Spent the last 4 days on Lake June in Lake Placid Florida... Quite a lightning show Sunday night.... I was exposed to a terrible, terrible biting fly known as the "yellow fly" as soon as it starts to get dusk...Worse than a deer fly.....Not fun at all.....


There are flies that bite? o.O Gonna have to mutter appreciation to my flies the next time I'm outdoors.
Quoting 163. HadesGodWyvern:



Lakshadweep region if it was heading southwesterly and then eastward..


Okay, thanks Hades. Had to look it up. Newertheless very far south-south-east :-). We'll see what happens.

Another day where the heaviest rain misses us, less than 0.1" here. Florida's rainy season can be so hit or miss for periods of time in a given area.
Hoping to start on a blog post... as soon as my regular laptop start working again. Ugh.
Cristina looks a little stronger than she is. The "eye" feature today has really been more just dry air than anything. This is why I said last night that Christina wouldn't undergo RI, at least not today. Having said that, it is organizing now, and may become a hurricane tomorrow morning. Shear is too low and waters are too warm for it not to at this point.

Quoting 127. bappit:


So you would say it is imminent, not that you are repeating what someone else said.


There's more than one source that forecasts the movement of the MJO. Which one do you think Tropicalanalystwx13 was referring to? That blogger is far more original than you.....
Sunny, hot and unpleasant. 73/93 today. High same as yesterday but the dew point yesterday was 70-72 and this afternoon it is 75-77. Tomorrow should be stormy.
172. FOREX
Quoting 162. PalmBeachWeather:

FOREX.... Any repellant fix for them?


They just did a story last week on the news here about that and of course I cannot remember what they suggested. Sorry.
this part of e.cen fl. has had no rain for more than month at least the onshores except for a couple days has kept the temp moderate. nothing tropical and i would of bet we had an early season. maybe late june.
171. DonnieBwkGA
9:26 PM GMT on June 10, 2014

When it's really hot and humid outside and I get my hair done with make-up on sometimes I feel as though I look like this...
Early Summer Heat Broils Northern Hemisphere
By: Christopher C. Burt , 09:06 PM GMT am 10. Juni 2014

Don't miss the new blog, btw :-)
Quoting 14. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, there was a double blog post.


Well, what's strange is that apart from the title, the two blogs aren't identical. He changed one item in the blogs, and that's this statement:

and El Niño conditions typically increase the sea surface temperatures and decrease the vertical wind shear over the tropical Eastern Pacific, New blog.

and El Niño conditions typically increase the seas surface temperatures and decrease the vertical wind shear over the tropical Eastern Pacific, Old blog.

Otherwise, it looks like he double-posted his blog. Maybe hit the wrong key.
Quoting 165. Astrometeor:



There are flies that bite? o.O Gonna have to mutter appreciation to my flies the next time I'm outdoors.


We have nasty deer flies that bite here in May/early June and late August/September.
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NJC007-015-PAC045-101-110015-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FF.W.0006.140610T2118Z-140611T0015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
518 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL DELAWARE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHWESTERN PHILADELPHIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
CAMDEN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...GLOUCESTER CITY...CAMDEN...
NORTHWESTERN GLOUCESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...

* UNTIL 815 PM EDT

* AT 515 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SLOWING MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. RAINFALL RATES OF NEARLY 2 INCHES WITHIN
AN HOUR IS EXPECTED, WHICH WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FLOODING.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO YEADON...
FOLCROFT...EAST LANSDOWNE...CHERRY HILL...BELLMAWR...SOUTH
PHILADELPHIA...PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...WESTVILLE...
VOORHEES...SPRINGDALE...NATIONAL PARK...MAGNOLIA...GREENTREE...BEN
FRANKLIN BRIDGE AND PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL ARPT

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3970 7477 3984 7536 3997 7525 3999 7502
3998 7501 3997 7502 3995 7502 3994 7498
3993 7498 3989 7493 3980 7491 3978 7489
3979 7481 3973 7473

$$

GORSE

According to CoCoRaHS, the highest rain total in Kansas yesterday was 5.15" of rain in Ellsworth. Otherwise, there was a wide swath of 2-4" of rain in the state, with more rain expected Wednesday night. Very good situation for a state in drought.

CoCoRaHS data


US Drought Monitor, Kansas
Quoting 165. Astrometeor:



There are flies that bite? o.O Gonna have to mutter appreciation to my flies the next time I'm outdoors.


You're not really in the South until you get bit by a fly...
Quoting 181. Bluestorm5:



You're not really in the South until you get bit by a fly...


Tennessee (at least Middle TN) doesn't have any biting flies to my knowledge. We have flies that like to fly into your eyes...but otherwise, nothing here just runs up and bites you (except for ticks, chiggers, and mosquitoes).

TN is most definitely a southern state, btw. Ain't no denying that.
Quoting 182. Astrometeor:



Tennessee (at least Middle TN) doesn't have any biting flies to my knowledge. We have flies that like to fly into your eyes...but otherwise, nothing here just runs up and bites you (except for ticks, chiggers, and mosquitoes).

TN is most definitely a southern state, btw. Ain't no denying that.
I got bit many times by flies in Michigan when I was growing up. An east wind at Lake Michigan and you can forget about a pleasant day.
Quoting 146. intampa:

looks like a no go for rain today west of I75/riverview area. been very very dry and hot. even on the days last couple of weeks when we had the tornado and all the rain nothing over here. i live near the bay i wonder how that affects all this rain that seems to "go around" this area
That seems to be the nature of the rain here. Get a good easterly or south easterly upper level component and we'll likely get rain in the evening. Right now it's S-SW. The W component is too strong. Sometimes we get AM storms in this environment, like we did in St. Pete yesterday.

Quoting 181. Bluestorm5:



You're not really in the South until you get bit by a fly...
 What?   I would not consider Mn the south and deer flies are a pain but no comparison to horse flies which can get over 1 inch big here compared to about a 1/2 inch deer fly.
The eye on satellite is an actual eye, but its development is being slowed by dry air entrainment. Hopefully ASCAT hits the center later tonight to tell us the true strength of the cyclone.
Keeping the dream alive....
Quoting Bluestorm5:


You're not really in the South until you get bit by a fly...


New England has Blackflies. I've never experienced them but heard bad things about them.
The DC area has gnats that fly into your eyes (far fewer than fifty years ago), deer flies, and horse flies; the latter bite through clothing and leave red gouges. Actually most places with horses have horseflies. But in terms of bugs overall we aren't too bad.
190. FOREX
Quoting 188. Abacosurf:

Keeping the dream alive....


Please be
Arthur, pleeeease.
Now looking into the future and knowing that this will be a el nino year it appears that conditions are setting up on the east coast.It's where some of the warmest waters are and where some of the lowest shear values have been.Not a surprise seeing as how el nino typically shuts down the caribbean and Gulf.I don't want to see another storm running up the coast.
193. FOREX
Quoting 192. Climate175:




Unfortunately weakens in the Gulf again this run.
Quoting 190. FOREX:



Please be
Arthur, pleeeease.
We will see next week.
LMAO.GFS has a almost full fledged hurricane zooming through the Yucatan channel 8 days from now.
sigh...

The Texas Drought Is Producing Bigger, Stronger, Meaner Mosquitoes

Texas' historic drought is, at least, good for one thing: fewer mosquitoes. But according to researchers at UNT Health Science Center in Fort Worth, the mosquitoes that survive could be bigger, meaner and more persistent.

Mosquitoes grow in stagnant water. If there are fewer mosquitoes, there are more nutrients to go around, says Dr. Joon Lee, a medical entomologist who investigates the possibility of West Nile risk in Fort Worth as part of a partnership with the city. That may result in larger mosquitoes -- not moth-sized, but still. "A little bigger is a lot bigger in terms of mosquitoes," Lee tells Unfair Park.

Normal mosquitoes can live up to about 20 days. These stronger mosquitoes could live up to a month. They could also cover more territory. If you find yourself in a battle against them, swatting away, know that they'll be able to last longer.

More important, the added strength, longer life expectancy and greater range mean mosquitoes have more time to pass on the West Nile virus, Lee says.
Quoting 191. washingtonian115:

Now looking into the future and knowing that this will be a el nino year it appears that conditions are setting up on the east coast.It's where some of the warmest waters are and where some of the lowest shear values have been.Not a surprise seeing as how el nino typically shuts down the caribbean and Gulf.I don't want to see another storm running up the coast.
Have you been noticing the weather pattern going over on in our area causing every weekend to be clear and dry and t-storms and rain during the weekdays?
Quoting 193. FOREX:



Unfortunately weakens in the Gulf again this run.
199. FOREX
Quoting 195. washingtonian115:

LMAO.GFS has a almost full fledged hurricane zooming through the Yucatan channel 8 days from now.


GFS has been very persistent with this, but the last two runs weaken it significantly before landfall, if it even develops at all. Having my doubts.
Quoting 195. washingtonian115:

LMAO.GFS has a almost full fledged hurricane zooming through the Yucatan channel 8 days from now.
I think this upcoming El-Nino will be helpful during the wintertime, if you know what i mean. :)
Quoting 197. Climate175:

Have you been noticing the weather pattern going over in our area causing every weekend to be clear and dry and t-storms during the weekdays?
Yes.CWG did tuoch up on this.It's just like this past winter where the snow storms were either every sunday night/every Tuesday morning or Every wednesday night.The pattern has been stuck on a specific mode.

200. Climate175
10:55 PM GMT on June 10, 2014
Yes,yes :).I'am looking forward to another exciting winter.Hopefully this el nino delivers and we see some good snows.It would be something to have two back to back snowy winters in the D.C area.Something not seen in a long time.
Quoting 193. FOREX:



Unfortunately weakens in the Gulf again this run.


Looks like it gets ripped to shreds by some strong UL south westerlies...
203. FOREX
Quoting 202. Abacosurf:



Looks like it gets ripped to shreds by some strong UL south westerlies...


Sure does. :(
Quoting 201. washingtonian115:

Yes.CWG did tuoch up on this.It's just like this past winter where the snow storms were either every sunday night/every Tuesday morning or Every wednesday night.The pattern has been stuck on a specific mode.

200. Climate175
10:55 PM GMT on June 10, 2014
Yes,yes :).I'am looking forward to another exciting winter.Hopefully this el nino delivers and we see some good snows.It would be something to have two back to back snowy winters in the D.C area.Something not seen in a long time.
WJZ was talking about the El-Nino and i was getting excited! We better see some snowmageddon's this winter. For now in the summer we are gonna be stuck in that pattern i believe and the threat for hurricanes is quite slim but it could happen.
"There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis is predicting development over the coming five days."

Every time Dr. Masters types this, an angel gets its wings.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
DEEP DEPRESSION ARB01-2014
23:30 PM IST June 10 2014
===============================

At 18:00 PM UTC, The depression over east central Arabian Sea moved northwestwards, intensified into a deep depression and now lays centered near 16.5N 67.5E, about 630 km southwest of Mumbai, 570 km south southwest of Veraval and 1020 km southeast of Masirah Island (Oman).

It would move northwestwards and intensify further into a cyclonic storm during next 12 hours. Subsequently it would move west northwestwards towards Oman coast.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T2.0. Associated broken low/medium clouds embedded with intense to very intense convection is seen over the Arabian sea between 11.0N to 19.5N and 60.5E to 70.5E. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -80c. The convective clouds in the system have organized with merging of clusters during the past six hours.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center. The winds are higher in the southern sector (30-40 knots) due to the monsoon surge. The central pressure of the deep depression is 994 hPa.

The sea surface temperature over the region is about 30-32C. The ocean thermal energy is about 80-120 kj/cm2. The relative vorticity in lower levels along with the low level convergence and the upper level divergence have remained the same during the past six hours. The vertical wind shear in the horizontal wind over the region is about 20-30 knots. Despite of the adverse vertical wind shear, the system would intensify due to favorable sea surface temperatures, low level vorticity and upper level divergence. Considering Madden-Julian oscillation, it lies in phase 3 (equatorial east Indian ocean) with amplitude less than 1.The models predict it to lie in phase 3 during the next 5 days with increasing amplitude, but less than 1. Hence, while Madden-Jullian oscillation phase is favorable, Amplitude is not favorable for intensification.

Considering numerical weather prediction models, GFS continues to show cyclonic storm with west northwestward movement towards Oman coast till 0000 UTC, Saturday and then recurves towards northeast and weakening of the system over sea. ECMWF, Meteo France and UKMO models indicate maximum intensification up to depression/deep depression during the next 72 hours with north westward movement and weakening of the system thereafter. In a model shows initial northwestward movement up to 60 hours and then westward movement with gradual intensification up to severe cyclonic storm during the 72 hours. Hence, there is a large variation in the track and intensity prediction by the models.

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS: 17.2N 66.8E - 35 to 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 17.9N 65.6E - 50 to 55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS: 18.8N63.7E - 60 to 65 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS: 19.4N 61.9E - 50 to 55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
e National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for... southeastern Bucks County in southeast Pennsylvania... northeastern Philadelphia County in southeast Pennsylvania... west central Burlington County in southern New Jersey...

* until 915 PM EDT

* at 620 PM EDT...National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated showers and thunderstorms slowly moving across much of the area. Torrential rainfall is accompanying this activity, with a history of rainfall rates around 2 inches within in hour. This amount of rain in a short period of time will lead to flooding.

* Locations in the warning include but are not limited to Willingboro...Riverside...Beverly...Wissinoming... Tacony... northeast Philadelphia...Holmesburg...Bristol...Bensalem... Andalusia and Burlington

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the roadway. The water depth may be too great to allow your car to cross safely. Move to higher ground.

Most flood deaths occur in automobiles. Never drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the roadway. Flood waters are usually deeper than they appear. Just one foot of flowing water is powerful enough to sweep vehicles off the Road. When encountering flooded roads make the smart choice...turn around...dont drown.

Lat...Lon 3988 7492 3994 7498 3995 7502 3998 7501 3999 7503 4000 7505 3998 7508 3999 7510 4010 7507 4013 7502 4011 7484 4009 7479 3996 7479
Quoting 199. FOREX:



GFS has been very persistent with this, but the last two runs weaken it significantly before landfall, if it even develops at all. Having my doubts.
Good evening Forex..I believe it will form, but get sheared after entering the gulf..
And now we know.....

Hurricane Hunters Fly Storm Reconnaissance Mission

Excerpt:

The original takeoff for the flight was scheduled for 11 a.m. from Keesler, but shortly into the flight, Brady noticed a fuel leak out of his window and the crew returned to Keesler. The crew then took off in another aircraft at 3 p.m.
rain rain go away. would like to get my privacy fence up.
Quoting 182. Astrometeor:



Tennessee (at least Middle TN) doesn't have any biting flies to my knowledge. We have flies that like to fly into your eyes...but otherwise, nothing here just runs up and bites you (except for ticks, chiggers, and mosquitoes).

TN is most definitely a southern state, btw. Ain't no denying that.
greetings Astro..We do have biting flies..I know it for a fact..If you do not ..be glad.
Quoting 189. georgevandenberghe:



New England has Blackflies. I've never experienced them but heard bad things about them.
The DC area has gnats that fly into your eyes (far fewer than fifty years ago), deer flies, and horse flies; the latter bite through clothing and leave red gouges. Actually most places with horses have horseflies. But in terms of bugs overall we aren't too bad.


New England's summer bug season is pretty bad. Been there few times and they're never fun, lol.
Quoting 212. hydrus:

greetings Astro..We do have biting flies..I know it for a fact..If you do not ..be glad.


Maybe I just naturally scare them away. I see plenty of flies everyday, but nothing bites.

That, and the bats do a good job too.
Low probabilities on everything.

The twins are in Knoxville Tn. For 4-H. They said it is like home. It's raining.

Sorry my I is locked on caps.
Quoting 216. midnite02:

The twins are in Knoxville Tn. For 4-H. They said it is like home. It's raining.

Sorry my I is locked on caps.


Here ya go, I'd say the twins are right.

Quoting MrNatural:


There's more than one source that forecasts the movement of the MJO. Which one do you think Tropicalanalystwx13 was referring to? That blogger is far more original than you.....

I was thinking of Michael Ventrices guest blog for Dr. Masters. It would at least be polite to acknowledge when you are not being original. It also is helpful to provide sources so people can go and learn more for themselves and not be dependent on self appointed gate keepers.
Quoting 201. washingtonian115:

Yes.CWG did tuoch up on this.It's just like this past winter where the snow storms were either every sunday night/every Tuesday morning or Every wednesday night.The pattern has been stuck on a specific mode.

200. Climate175
10:55 PM GMT on June 10, 2014
Yes,yes :).I'am looking forward to another exciting winter.Hopefully this el nino delivers and we see some good snows.It would be something to have two back to back snowy winters in the D.C area.Something not seen in a long time.

OMG. Big rains on the way for Wekiva Spring in Central Florida!! SUPER excited. We need it so bad down here. Liking these summer temperatures and the sunshine but the plants need moisture!! This is shaping up to be a GREAT summer so far!!!!.....

Alyssa

Quoting 217. Astrometeor:



Here ya go, I'd say the twins are right.




I'm from the Dyersburg,Tn. area.
18Z GFS has actually moved up the timing (of the actual formation of the Low, not the disturbance which forms earlier), from 162hrs to 132hrs, which is a whole day, although it's not much, it is a decent change from what it's been showing, which is pulling back time frame after time frame or bringing it forward by about 6hrs then pulling back.
Kudos to you GFS for turning around. ;)
Although I am still keeping in mind that it is still sorta far out


jeez
Nasty thunderstorm here. Heavy rain, lightning, and wind gusts to 50 mph took down some large branches near the Bay just north of whitted airport.

Lots of twisted palm fronds everywhere.
Much better ensemble spread with this system than 90L.

226. FOREX
Quoting 221. wunderkidcayman:

18Z GFS has actually moved up the timing (of the actual formation of the Low, not the disturbance which forms earlier), from 162hrs to 132hrs, which is a whole day, although it's not much, it is a decent change from what it's been showing, which is pulling back time frame after time frame or bringing it forward by about 6hrs then pulling back.
Kudos to you GFS for turning around. ;)


My local WMBB Chief Meteorologist just said that enough of the energy from the E. Pacific should filter over to get something started. Unfortunately, it looks as though shear in the Gulf will tear it apart. We shall see.
EP, 03, 2014061100, , BEST, 0, 154N, 1035W, 55, 996, TS
Actual disturbance formation
Earlier was around
120hrs

Now around
102hrs

Which is keeping with timing


Where is low supposed to form in SW Caribbean or the GOH?
Quoting 226. FOREX:



My local WMBB Chief Meteorologist just said that enough of the energy from the E. Pacific should filter over to get something started. Unfortunately, it looks as though shear in the Gulf will tear it apart. We shall see.
Shear on the models more than 3 days out is unreliable.Sometimes shear can work out for better or for worse for Tropical cyclones.Remember hurricane Micheal was suppose to be torn apart by shear and cool sst only to become 2012's first major hurricane.Kirk was suppose to be torn apart by shear as well.It's all about waiting and seeing.
231. FOREX
Quoting 230. washingtonian115:

Shear on the models more than 3 days out is unreliable.Sometimes shear can work out for better or for worse for Tropical cyclones.Remember hurricane Micheal was suppose to be torn apart by shear and cool sst only to become 2012's first major hurricane.Kirk was suppose to be torn apart by shear as well.It's all about waiting and seeing.


I'm impatient.lol
Quoting 218. bappit:


I was thinking of Michael Ventrices guest blog for Dr. Masters. It would at least be polite to acknowledge when you are not being original. It also is helpful to provide sources so people can go and learn more for themselves and not be dependent on self appointed gate keepers.

Lol. It's also polite to not assume things.

Mike Ventrice posted his guest blog at 10:36 am EDT on June 7. I first posted about the MJO at 1:35pm EDT on June 6. How did I copy what he posted if he hadn't posted it yet?

But let's just ignore that tidbit for a second. As you know, meteorology is a fairly popular topic around the world. Anything an enthusiast posts has likely been covered, whether it be here on Weather Underground or on Twitter, Facebook, and other weather forums. Are you truly ever being "original" when you point something out? I don't know about you, but I find it far more likely that people aren't copying others' posts, they just happen to stumble across the same interesting tidbit. Especially when discussing something as influential (to the global tropics) as the MJO, which most people in the weather world know about.

Go find something better to do than worry about what I'm posting.
Quoting 225. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Much better ensemble spread with this system than 90L.



Oh yeah a lot better agreement than 90L not only that but better agreement than what it showed couple days ago

Quoting 226. FOREX:



My local WMBB Chief Meteorologist just said that enough of the energy from the E. Pacific should filter over to get something started. Unfortunately, it looks as though shear in the Gulf will tear it apart. We shall see.

I say maybe a TS in the W Carib, gets stronger before making it into the GOM, and when it's in the GOM it's slowly weakens until landfall, wherever that would be. Too early to determine.
Quoting 229. stormpetrol:



Where is low supposed to form in SW Caribbean or the GOH?

The spark or weak vort expected to come from the SW Caribbean moves NNW just E-ENE of the Hon/Nic boarder coast then get stronger as it stalls in the area for a short period then moves Nbound as a much stronger system
Quoting 223. nwobilderburg:



jeez


That graph is basically specifically made to make it look way more dire than it actually is.
Quoting 193. FOREX:



Unfortunately weakens in the Gulf again this run.


Doesn't matter. The track is completely irrelevant, not to mention this is a long-range forecast. All we're discussing is hypotheticals, which serves as good pastimes, but little else. Chances are the system doesn't develop anyway, the signals in the GFS notwithstanding.
Quoting 236. VAbeachhurricanes:



That graph is basically specifically made to make it look way more dire than it actually is.


agreed..
I'm relieved by the amount of ghost storm signals in the GFS this year (and to an extent, the Euro, which showed a tropical storm hitting Louisiana last week... due to arrive in two days). Last year we barely had any short-range agreement for cyclogenesis amongst the GFS/ECMWF, much less any hints at the long-range pattern potentially favoring development.

Before El Nino kicks in at least, I like this trend in the models to hint at long-range conditions possibly being more favorable.
240. 1344
ATCF brings Cristina up to 55 knt. SAB, TAFB, and ADT all in good agreement.
239. KoritheMan
1:14 AM GMT on June 11, 2014

The reason why I want to see a storm form in June is just for the hell of it.We've had early season development since 2005.It would be nice to continue this year and probably into next so we could reach a 10 year streak.
242. beell
Quoting 236. VAbeachhurricanes:



That graph is basically specifically made to make it look way more dire than it actually is.


How dire is it?

Quoting 204. Climate175:

WJZ was talking about the El-Nino and i was getting excited! We better see some snowmageddon's this winter. For now in the summer we are gonna be stuck in that pattern i believe and the threat for hurricanes is quite slim but it could happen.


We are so hoping for some decent snows this year in New Mexico.
Quoting 235. wunderkidcayman:


The spark or weak vort expected to come from the SW Caribbean moves NNW just E-ENE of the Hon/Nic boarder coast then get stronger as it stalls in the area for a short period then moves Nbound as a much stronger system


Thanks buddy!
A 2145z microwave pass shows what's going on with Cristina well. While an eyewall is evident, it's open to the east due to a pronounced dry slot wrapping in from the southwest. A beautiful curved band can be seen in the southeast quadrant.

Quoting 242. beell:



How dire is it?




No idea, but starting the y-axis 2 feet below your minimum datapoint makes it obvious that they are trying to tell you what you should think.
Quoting 241. washingtonian115:

239. KoritheMan
1:14 AM GMT on June 11, 2014

The reason why I want to see a storm form in June is just for the hell of it.We've had early season development since 2005.It would be nice to continue this year and probably into next so we could reach a 10 year streak.
And due to that my mind expects an early season storm every year now, COME ON ARTHUR...
248. 1344
Eh, Cristina still looks pretty good for a 55 knt system. Some dry air oh of MX is hurting it.
Fairly nice wave south of Cape Verde. Is that the SAL that keeps the SSTs relatively cool?
Quoting stormpetrol:


Where is low supposed to form in SW Caribbean or the GOH?


Seems to form in the NW Caribbean on the GFS. But it looks like it pulls it out of the SW Caribbean then moves it north and spins up. Euro shows a bunch of low pressure in SW Caribbean the whole run but never moves it up or develops it. I was wondering about that area too.

EURO LINK

I guess I'm pretty bored (and too lazy to write a blog post), but I'm in a chatty mood. Anybody is welcome to come by!

http://www.wunderground.com/community/chat.asp


Structure looking good, although the convection is weak at the moment and what looks to be more dry air intrusion.

(Click to Enlarge)





Although as the sun sets, we should start seeing more intense convection firing off and the dry air washed out which is not too long away now:

Predicted Cloud structure of the storm.
It's depressing that the MJO is almost always in the Pacific... and almost never in the Atlantic. What a life!
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

The spark or weak vort expected to come from the SW Caribbean moves NNW just E-ENE of the Hon/Nic boarder coast then get stronger as it stalls in the area for a short period then moves Nbound as a much stronger system


lol. what he said.
Quoting 254. CaribBoy:

It's depressing that the MJO is almost always in the Pacific... and almost never in the Atlantic. What a life!


The recent incidence of June storms has clearly spoiled some people. ;)
Quoting 254. CaribBoy:

It's depressing that the MJO is almost always in the Pacific... and almost never in the Atlantic. What a life!
The Atlantic greatly needs intervention.
258. JRRP
Quoting 258. JRRP:


Is happening!!
260. beell
Quoting 246. VAbeachhurricanes:



No idea, but starting the y-axis 2 feet below your minimum datapoint makes it obvious that they are trying to tell you what you should think.


I believe at a water elevation of 1,075 ft, the feds can curtail releases and are no longer bound by any existing agreements to supply water to water authorities in Nevada, Arizona, Southern California, etc. Even if the water is "banked" and owed.

A fairly even presentation here.
Link

...Nevada, California and Arizona won the right to store unused Colorado River water in Lake Mead as part of an interstate agreement enacted in 2007.

Mexico started banking water in the lake a few years later, after a major earthquake in April 2010 damaged canals and pipelines that country uses to divert water from the Colorado south of the border. A treaty amendment struck in 2012 expanded Mexico's ability to store water in the reservoir.


There are restrictions on how much of the banked water, officially known as Intentionally Created Surplus, can be taken out in a single year. California's annual withdrawals are capped at 400,000 acre-feet, Nevada's at 300,000 acre-feet. The bank cannot be tapped during a declared shortage on the river or if federal officials determine that a withdrawal would tip the river into shortage...


About a 20' drop since October and approximately 12' away from declaration of a shortage.
Quoting 259. Gearsts:

Is happening!!

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Lol. It's also polite to not assume things.

Mike Ventrice posted his guest blog at 10:36 am EDT on June 7. I first posted about the MJO at 1:35pm EDT on June 6. How did I copy what he posted if he hadn't posted it yet?

But let's just ignore that tidbit for a second. As you know, meteorology is a fairly popular topic around the world. Anything an enthusiast posts has likely been covered, whether it be here on Weather Underground or on Twitter, Facebook, and other weather forums. Are you truly ever being "original" when you point something out? I don't know about you, but I find it far more likely that people aren't copying others' posts, they just happen to stumble across the same interesting tidbit. Especially when discussing something as influential (to the global tropics) as the MJO, which most people in the weather world know about.

Go find something better to do than worry about what I'm posting.

I'm not focused on what you post. I just like people to give sources. [It is common across I should say--which is not a good excuse.] The whole internet fails to do that pretty much.
Quoting 261. Climate175:


Was looking for that thanks ;)
Drop Sonde Drones...
coming this year:

http://online.wsj.com/articles/hurricane-research ers-eye-low-level-flights-to-gauge-strength-140233 9614?mod=WSJ_hp_EditorsPicks


As also reported in the Sun Sentinal

"What they find should help the National Hurricane Center get a better handle on how strong a storm could become.

"It's an innovative way to measure the atmosphere," said Jason Dunion, a research meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Hurricane Research Division in Miami.

Weighing about seven pounds with a five-foot wingspan, the Coyotes will be dropped out of chutes in NOAA's WP-3 hurricane hunter aircraft while 10,000 to 12,000 feet above the ocean.

The drone's spring-loaded wings will lock into place and its small electric motor will spin up, allowing it to fly at speeds up to 70 mph. Then the little plane will do what no other aircraft can %u2014 spend up to two hours spiraling around the core of a hurricane, allowing forecasters to receive detailed information about its inner workings.

"You're getting a longer snapshot of how pressure changes within the eye," Dunion said.

While being remote-controlled from the WP-3, the Coyote also will be flown into a hurricane's eye wall to find the strongest winds. That, too, should help the hurricane center improve intensity predictions, an area where it has struggled for decades.

Additionally, forecasters hope the Coyote will help them better anticipate when a hurricane might rapidly intensify, which could be devastating if the system is near land."

http://articles.sun-sentinel.com/2014-06-08/news/ fl-noaa-drones-fly-into-canes-20140608_1_national- hurricane-center-storm-forecasts-hurricane-researc h-division






Quoting 197. Climate175:

Have you been noticing the weather pattern going over on in our area causing every weekend to be clear and dry and t-storms and rain during the weekdays?


yeah it's usually the other way around.
Every hundred years we get something like this. 1914 and 2014. We won't see anything




Quoting 266. Grothar:

Every hundred years we get something like this. 1914 and 2014. We won't see anything





1814 too?
Quoting 266. Grothar:

Every hundred years we get something like this. 1914 and 2014. We won't see anything





I'm 100% sure there was more that year out in the atlantic.
1913 and compare to 2013.
Quoting 267. Climate175:

1814 too?


There were a few in 1814



1814 Atlantic hurricane season

I. A minimal hurricane hit South Carolina on July 1, causing 1 tornado.

II. A hurricane struck Dominica and Puerto Rico between July 22 and July 24.

III. A hurricane affected Bermuda for four days around October 10. (from Beware the Hurricane) {USS Wasp (1814)Probably lost in storm}
Quoting 270. Grothar:



There were a few in 1814



1814 Atlantic hurricane season

I. A minimal hurricane hit South Carolina on July 1, causing 1 tornado.

II. A hurricane struck Dominica and Puerto Rico between July 22 and July 24.

III. A hurricane affected Bermuda for four days around October 10. (from Beware the Hurricane) {USS Wasp (1814)Probably lost in storm}


Did you take pictures?
Quoting 254. CaribBoy:

It's depressing that the MJO is almost always in the Pacific... and almost never in the Atlantic. What a life!
Think about how many kilometers wide the equatorial Atlantic is compared with the equatorial Pacific. Stands to reason it would be more time in the Pacific.
Quoting 271. VAbeachhurricanes:



Did you take pictures?


I was in England at the time. We were preparing for Waterloo.
274. JRRP
Quoting Gearsts:
Was looking for that thanks ;)

jajajaja
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014
800 PM PDT TUE JUN 10 2014

Cristina is intensifying this evening. The compact central dense
overcast has become more circular, and hints of an eye have been
apparent in geostationary satellite images. The initial
intensity is increased to 55 kt, in agreement with unanimous Dvorak
classifications of 3.5/55 kt from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT.

Although the curved bands beyond the inner-core region remain
fragmented, a considerable amount of lightning has been occurring
in a rain band located about 120 n mi to the south-southwest of the
center. Recent research has documented that lightning in the
outer bands of the tropical cyclone circulation is often a precursor
of significant intensification. The only apparent factor that could
limit strengthening during the next couple of days is mid-level dry
air, which has been an issue for Cristina during the past day or so.
In about 3 days, Cristina is expected to move into an environment of
stronger southwesterly shear and over cooler waters, which should
end the strengthening trend and cause the cyclone to weaken. The
NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous one, and
is pretty close to the intensity model consensus IVCN.

Cristina has wobbled a little south of due west during the past 6
hours, and the latest initial motion estimate is 265/5. A westward
to west-northwestward motion is forecast during the next day or so
while the cyclone remains on the south side of a mid-level ridge
over northwestern Mexico. After that time, a turn to the northwest
is predicted when the ridge weakens and shifts eastward. The NHC
track forecast is an update of the previous one, and close to a
consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 15.2N 103.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 15.4N 105.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 15.8N 106.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 16.5N 107.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 17.2N 109.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 14/0000Z 18.7N 111.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 15/0000Z 19.6N 113.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 16/0000Z 20.0N 115.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
When Lincoln entered office, storms were threatening the east coast.
Quoting 266. Grothar:

Every hundred years we get something like this. 1914 and 2014. We won't see anything







As long as the one storm goes into Louisiana like it did in 1914.
Very interesting tidbit from the discussion:

"Although the curved bands beyond the inner-core region remain
fragmented, a considerable amount of lightning has been occurring
in a rain band located about 120 n mi to the south-southwest of the
center. Recent research has documented that lightning in the
outer bands of the tropical cyclone circulation is often a precursor
of significant intensification."
Quoting 268. Gearsts:

I'm 100% sure there was more that year out in the atlantic.


world war 1 was going on (started, at least), and it was 1914, so im 100% sure their was at least a couple more storms in the Atlantic
1914 Hurricane season from Wiki.

The year has been analyzed many times. The maritime authorities always kept precise records of any storms in the Atlantic. At any given time there were thousands of ship in the Atlantic. Trade was very strong in South America and ships were constantly back and forth. It is in the realm of possibility that it was an exceptionally quiet season.

Link
Quoting 276. Climate175:

When Lincoln entered office, storms were threatening the east coast.


I doubt Lincoln was that worried about a wind and rain storm when he entered office.
Quoting 281. Astrometeor:



I doubt Lincoln was that worried about a wind and rain storm when he entered office.


Probably true, or he wouldn't have worn such a tall hat to the inauguration
283. 1344
Adv birngs it up to 55 knts. Lots of lighting noted, which is a strong indicator of RI. I think this could be a hurricane tomorrow morning. In order for RI to happen, dry air needs to decrease and CDO needs to become better organized. If that happens it could bomb out IMO.

Dry air enter the E side now. CDO looks weird, but it's Cristina's way of keeping it out.
Storm Track Statistics

Jun 09 2100 GMT 15.4 -102.0 35 1006 Tropical Depression
Jun 9 2100 GMT 15.4 -102.0 35 1006 Tropical Depression
Jun 10 0300 GMT 15.5 -102.2 40 1004 Tropical Storm
Jun 10 0300 GMT 15.5 -102.2 40 1004 Tropical Storm
Jun 10 0900 GMT 15.6 -102.4 40 1004 Tropical Storm
Jun 10 0900 GMT 15.6 -102.4 40 1004 Tropical Storm
Jun 10 1500 GMT 15.5 -102.9 45 1003 Tropical Storm
Jun 10 1500 GMT 15.5 -102.9 45 1003 Tropical Storm
Jun 10 2100 GMT 15.5 -103.2 50 1001 Tropical Storm
Jun 10 2100 GMT 15.5 -103.2 50 1001 Tropical Storm
Jun 11 0300 GMT 15.2 -103.9 65 996 Tropical Storm


I call pinhole eye....
Next tropical wave came off the coast of Africa now on 00Z Sfc chart
Quoting 285. PedleyCA:



I call pinhole eye....


I think I see some clouds.

:D
TS Cristina should be a Hurricane 75mph if not overnight then by midday tomorrow
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
9:00 AM JST June 11 2014
=============================

Subject: Tropical Depression In Sea South Of Okinawa

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (998 hPa) located at 23.4N 125.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving east at 15 knots.


Look at the convection xD I want to see that again!!
object width="420" height="315">
00Z GFS is running
Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.



* IEA Cuts Gas Use Growth Forecast as Coal, Renewables Gain

China's Clean-Fuel Focus Tests U.S. Coal-Export Lifeline

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Recording the Polar Bear's View of its Changing Arctic Environment (with video)

Diving beetle's sticky underwater mating secret

*** GM strains crash mosquito population in lab

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Grass is greener for biofuels future


!!! Earth is around 60 million years older than previously thought -- and so is the moon, new research finds

!!! Seafarers brought Neolithic culture to Europe, gene study indicates



*** High Tibet was cradle of evolution for cold-adapted mammals

* Echoes of ancient Earth identified by scientists?

Milky Way may bear 100 million life-giving planets


Colonial-era dams trigger parallel evolution of Connecticut fish

*** New permafrost is forming around shrinking Arctic lakes, but will it last?


Restoring grasslands: Ant diversity indicates restored grasslands


Mississippi editorial roundup

Kentucky editorial roundup

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Texas Crop Report

South Carolina editorial roundup

Alabama editorial roundup

Indiana editorial roundup

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*** Vermont climate change report warns of catastrophic flood risk

Oklahoma editorial roundup

Missouri editorial roundup

Mars Curiosity Rover Spots Mercury Crossing the Sun (with video)
Cyclonic Storm "Nanauk" from IMD Satellite Bulletin message

VORTEX OVER ARABIAN SEA CENTERED NEAR 16.5N/67.2E(.) INTENSITY T2.5 RPT T2.5(.)
Nearby Weather Stations at 11:40pm


Beacon Hill/Lake Saltonstall - Branford, Branford
67.7 °F

Rock Hill
68.1 °F

Foxon
67.6 °F

East Haven Town Beach
65.2 °F

Branford Shoreline
66.1 °F

Branford
65.8 °F
Hello everyone im new, I cant wait to see what these seasons brings. So I will learn from yall.
300. FOREX
Quoting 298. accu35:

Hello everyone im new, I cant wait to see what these seasons brings. So I will learn from yall.


welcome.
Evening All. Gotta agree with the NHC looking at satellite. When a storm starts to bring the big bands around it's about to go ballistic.

I finished another blog on Cristina. Feel free to read or whatever.

Link
Well, a lot changed in 4 hours. Now the eastern eyewall is solid and the northwest quadrant is open.

Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ESTER
11:00 AM PhST June 11 2014
================================================= ======

"ESTER" has maintained its strength as it moves farther away from the country.

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Ester [1000 hPa] located at 23.6N 125.8E or 480 km northeast of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving northeast at 11 knots.

Additional Information
===================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 5 -15 mm/hr within the 250 km diameter of the depression.

“ESTER” will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon which will bring moderate to heavy rains over Batanes group of Islands, Calayan and Babuyan group of Islands, the Regions of Ilocos and Cordillera, the Provinces of Pampanga, Zambales, Bataan and Bulacan while the rest of Luzon will have occasional rains.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today or earlier.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
CYCLONIC STORM NANAUK (ARB01-2014)
5:30 AM IST June 11 2014
===============================

At 0:00 AM UTC, The deep depression over east central Arabian Sea moved slowly westwards, intensified into a cyclonic storm ‘NANAUK’ and now lay centered near 16.5N 67.2E, about 660 km south west of Mumbai, 590 km south southwest of Veraval and 990 km southeast of Masirah Island (Oman).

It would intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hrs. It would move west northwestwards towards Oman coast during next 72 hours.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T2.5. Associated broken low/medium clouds embedded with intense to very intense convection is seen over the Arabian sea between 14.0N 19.0N and 60.0E to 69.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -80c. The convect ive clouds in the system have organized with merging of clusters during the past six hours.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The state of the sea is high around the system. The winds are higher in the southern sector (35-45 knots) due to monsoon surge. The central pressure of Cyclonic Storm Nanauk is 992 hPa.

The sea surface temperature over the region is about 30-32C. The ocean thermal energy is about 80-120 kj/cm2. The relative vorticity in lower levels along with the low level convergence and the upper level divergence have remained the same during the past six hours. The vertical wind shear in the horizontal wind over the region is about 20-30 knots. Despite of the adverse vertical wind shear the system would intensify due to favorable sea surface temperatures, low level vorticity and upper level divergence. Considering Madden-Julian oscillation, it lies in phase 3 (equatorial east Indian ocean) with amplitude less than 1.The models predict it to lie in phase 3 during the next 5 days with increasing amplitude , but less than 1. Hence, while Madden-Julian oscillation phase is favorable, amplitude is not favorable for intensification.

Most of the numerical weather prediction models suggest the system to move west northwestwards during the next 72 hours. A few models suggest further intensification in to a cyclonic storm.

Forecast and Intensity
===================
12 HRS 17.4N 66.2E - 45 to 50 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS 18.1N 65.1E - 55 to 60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS 18.8N 63.7E - 60 to 65 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS 19.4N 61.9E - 55 to 60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
00Z GFS so far is going good
Good with timing on W Carib system so far
It's just the matter of waiting for the runs and days to pass by as we get closer to that time frame (if trend continues)
Also this run seems to be further W now instead of first landfall being on the US Gulf Shores it's now the NE tip of the Yucatan then into the GOM...
To be continued
Very interesting US Gulf coast landfall before the 300hrs mark
Which is well a marked improvement
Than the last several runs that have it landfalling 300hrs+
Currently 110600Z landfalling as a TS at 240hrs
While past runs had it just in the S GOM at 240hrs
308. Ed22
Remember earilier today in comments that 45mph tropical storm Cristina by evening it could be a 65mph strong tropical storm Cristina. See it now its a 65mph storm on the verge of becoming the first Eastern Pacific Hurricane by tomorrow morning a 80mph hurricane which makes it a category 1 status. The Atlantic is quiet for now, things will pick up the latter part of June be prepare for mother nature at all times at all cost.
309. flsky
Why are you listing these??
Quoting 297. hurricanes2018:

Nearby Weather Stations at 11:40pm


Beacon Hill/Lake Saltonstall - Branford, Branford
67.7 °F

Rock Hill
68.1 °F

Foxon
67.6 °F

East Haven Town Beach
65.2 °F

Branford Shoreline
66.1 °F

Branford
65.8 °F

310. Ed22
Remember earilier today in my comments that 45mph tropical storm Cristina by evening it could be a 65mph strong tropical storm Cristina. See it now its a 65mph storm on the verge of becoming the first Eastern Pacific Hurricane by tomorrow morning a 80mph hurricane which makes it a category 1 status. The Atlantic is quiet for now, things will pick up the latter part of June be prepare for mother nature at all times at all cost.
Quoting 308. Ed22:

Remember earilier today in comments that 45mph tropical storm Cristina by evening it could be a 65mph strong tropical storm Cristina. See it now its a 65mph storm on the verge of becoming the first Eastern Pacific Hurricane by tomorrow morning a 80mph hurricane which makes it a category 1 status. The Atlantic is quiet for now, things will pick up the latter part of June be prepare for mother nature at all times at all cost.

Umm dude where have you been Cristina will not be the first EPac hurricane
Amanda was the Hurricane in fact it was on the verge of becoming a Cat 5
It's was 155mph

Cristina will likely become the second
Quoting 306. wunderkidcayman:

00Z GFS so far is going good
Good with timing on W Carib system so far
It's just the matter of waiting for the runs and days to pass by as we get closer to that time frame (if trend continues)
Also this run seems to be further W now instead of first landfall being on the US Gulf Shores it's now the NE tip of the Yucatan then into the GOM...
To be continued


Dude, stop, lol, it's been doing this every run for weeks.You been saying something is forming for the past 3 weeks. Talk about it when it show's its developed in 3-4 days...5 days if the Euro has the same.
Quoting 312. scottsvb:



Dude, stop, lol, it's been doing this every run for weeks.You been saying something is forming for the past 3 weeks. Talk about it when it show's its developed in 3-4 days...5 days if the Euro has the same.

FYI it's already in the 5 day time frame
In fact on day 5
And last I check the Euro did indicate a broad area of low pressure in the area
Time frame is moving up
Yeah I know with you it's treated you so badly that you have to wait for GFS to show it out to 24hrs before you believe
Plus Scott I'm just saying what GFS show
So I have not been saying something is going to develop
I've been saying what GFS is showing and that's just about it

So STOP going out of you way and clogging up the blog with your personal attacks against me ok
I have nothing else to say on the matter of these personal attacks

I'm getting back to the forecast and the weather conditions
The 00Z ensemble forecast seems to be in a good agreement
scottsvb & wunderkidcayman's song :) But which is which?

Quoting 317. BaltimoreBrian:

scottsvb & wunderkidcayman's song :) But which is which?



You forgot the http:// bit
Quoting 317. BaltimoreBrian:

scottsvb & wunderkidcayman's song :) But which is which?



What is it
It's a song from Chitty Chitty Bang Bang featuring a couple that's been married way too long ;) I didn't forget anything, it's a youtube embed :)
Quoting 314. wunderkidcayman:

Plus Scott I'm just saying what GFS show
So I have not been saying something is going to develop
I've been saying what GFS is showing and that's just about it

So STOP going out of you way and clogging up the blog with your personal attacks against me ok



Not giving you personal attacks, just telling you to calm down. Each day you say the same thing that something is forming the western caribbean for weeks. GFS still has nothing under 5 days and on Day 5-6 its convective feedback. Stop being a dreamcaster until the Euro develops it with it.
Morning Everybody from a cloudy southern Europe where we are heading towards about 40/c temps by weekend.

The TC2 storm of the north west coast of India is now showing winds of about 100 KPH or 60+ MPH, it will soon, if not already surly be declared a hurricane.
Very tight system. Link to wind map:-

Link
Extreme heat in India and power cut riots, resulting in hostage taking at the power company.
Temps approaching all time records now for mid June and no sign of the annual monsoon.

Weather report link:-

Link

Over a 1000 million people are experiencing this right now!
Quoting 320. BaltimoreBrian:

It's a song from Chitty Chitty Bang Bang featuring a couple that's been married way too long ;)

So what you comparing us guys to a couple in a old-ish movie
To be honest that's the most funniest most stupid most unrealistic thing
Like what in the world were you thinking

Well Army mentality lol
Scott I need to calm down are you serious
No no no
You need to calm down and if anyone is dreaming it's you

00Z GFS shows
disturbance starts at around late Sat early Sun
Actual low develop around Mon
About TD status around Tues
About TS status around late Tues early Wed
Quoting 312. scottsvb:



Dude, stop, lol, it's been doing this every run for weeks.You been saying something is forming for the past 3 weeks. Talk about it when it show's its developed in 3-4 days...5 days if the Euro has the same.


While it's certainly preferable to have the Euro on board, cyclogenesis situations can still easily happen without the agreement of that model.

I don't, of course, believe that it will. Just highlighting something.
Oh Dear
dream weaver train
just messin with yall while trying to fight insomnia
Good morning. It has been a calm night for me in Mainz and temps dropped a lot. But it wasn't calm for everybody in Germany (and still isn't), and still a lot to repair in certain regions.

Hail and floods as storms head east
The Local, published: 11 Jun 2014 08:47 GMT 02:00
Deadly storms which killed six people in western Germany moved east overnight causing floods in the central states of Lower Saxony and Hesse.
Floods were reported in tunnels and basements in the two states. Emergency services were called to 200 incidents just in Goettingen, Hesse.
Weather service the DWD is warning of further bad weather in the northern state of Schleswig-Holstein and in parts of Bavaria in the south.
And trains in North Rhine-Westphalia are still being affected by the storms which hit the area on Monday night and Tuesday morning.
Rail operator Deutsche Bahn said numerous stretches of track in the state were still closed. Trains heading to the Ruhrgebiet are stopping at Cologne and Muenster, while many S-Bahn services have been cancelled.
Storms are predicted to return around noon across the country. Thunderstorms can be expected particularly in southern and eastern regions of the country, with hailstones larger than 2cm in diameter.








Have a nice day!
331. emguy
If I may make 3 comments about this blog...worth repeating later...
1.) Look at the GFS 180 to 360 hours out. On EVERY RUN! lol...people don't event blob monger any more...its gotten worse.
2.) GFS that far out is unreliable...But then again...it sniffed out Debby this far in advance....every year someone brings up that relative non event hurricane on the TX coast...
3.) Eventually....a storm will form somewhere...and someone will say they saw it on GFS 300 hours earlier and they were right....yeah...if the GFS pumps out a 300 hour storm every run...it will be hailed as nailing it eventually...but it still won't be right.
Point being....give up on the beyond 96-120 hour stuff people.....nicely said...you are just being silly.



Arabian Depression Sucks Away Early Monsoon Hopes

By Express News Service, Published: 11th June 2014 08:35 AM, Last Updated: 11th June 2014 08:35 AM
VISAKHAPATNAM:: Hopes of the southwest monsoon arriving in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana this week have evaporated into thin air as moisuture in the atmosphere here has been sucked by a depression that has formed over the Arabian sea. Consequently, the much-awaited rain and relief from the sweltering heat will be delayed by at least 10 days, according to meteorological department officials.
In the meantime, there’s more bad news for coastal Andhra as the heatwave conditions are going to prevail in the next 24 hours albeit with a likelihood of isolated rains with thundershowers during the next 48 hours. The southwest monsoon, already delayed by five days, is now expected to enter Andhra Pradesh by the third week of this month.
According to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), the southwest monsoon has entered Tamil Nadu but has not been active. However, the Cyclone Warning Centre said the trough of low pressure from Chhattisgargh to South Tamil Nadu covering Coastal Andhra Pradesh is still continuing. The CWC said isolated rains with thundershowers will occur in coastal Andhra during the next 48 hours and added the heatwave will continue for the next 24 hours.
According to the IMD calendar, the southwest monsoon has to enter Andhra Pradesh at Nellore in the first week of this month. “Cool climate with moisture is needed to attract the monsoon. But a depression in the Arabian sea has attracted the moisture from the atmosphere here leaving behind dry wind which doesn’t cooperate with the monsoon and let it in,” a scientist of CWC told Express.
This is the first time in five years that conditions unfavourable to attract the monsoon had developed, he added. Right from the starting point at the Andamans, the southwest monsoon has not been much active this time. “Though it has entered Kerala, it’s been moving at a snail’s pace. It will take another 10 days for it to completely spread over Andhra Pradesh,” he said. ...
Quoting 323. PlazaRed:

Extreme heat in India and power cut riots, resulting in hostage taking at the power company.
Temps approaching all time records now for mid June and no sign of the annual monsoon.

Weather report link:-

Link

Over a 1000 million people are experiencing this right now!


This will be one of the most significant consequences of global warming - civil unrest leading to riots, leading to revolutions. The 'Arab spring' revolutions were partly due to rising food prices, due to global crop failures as a result of heat waves. The civil war in Syria is largely due to the worst drought there in over a century.

People get very restless when temperatures soar and they haven't eaten properly for days. You can expect to see more extremists gaining power as a result. Hostage taking at power stations is a new development.
barbamz, can't say I am looking forward to the storms, but a break from the heat will be nice.
BULLETIN
HURRICANE CRISTINA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014
200 AM PDT WED JUN 11 2014

...CRISTINA STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 104.1W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES
Quoting 334. largeeyes:

barbamz, can't say I am looking forward to the storms, but a break from the heat will be nice.


Good luck, largeeyes in Berlin!
Saharan dust pouring into the African skies is now present in many of the skies over southern Europe.
Damaging storms over northern Europe and very high temps.
leaden grey skies with no rain over our part of Southern Spain, unusual for the time of year not to have endless sunshine here but temps up to 40/C by weekend and cloudless skies. That's more like normal for us.

Poorly educated people will tend to react more and more to climatic anomalies, as they become confused as to why crops are not getting rain and floods then wash land away.

I was looking at sea temp anomalies a few days ago on friends computer, when he came in and turned it off. He said he did not want his family seeing things like that?
Sign of the times at present, probably the tip of the melting iceberg!
HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014
200 AM PDT WED JUN 11 2014

Cristina continues to intensify. The cyclone consists of a small
central dense overcast in geostationary satellite imagery with
cold-topped convection to -80C in the northern semicircle. There
have been faint hints of eye or warm spot during the past several
hours, and a 0329 UTC TRMM overpass showed a closed low- to mid-
level ring of convection surrounding the center. Satellite
classifications from TAFB and SAB supported an intensity of 60 kt at
synoptic time. However, the initial intensity estimate is increased
to 65 kt, based on UW-CIMSS ADT values now to 4.5/77 kt and the
persistence of an eye feature that has warmed slightly and become
better defined.

The cyclone has been moving south of due west in response to a
strong mid-level ridge over northwestern Mexico, but the heading
appears to have recently become more westerly. The ridge is
forecast to either remain in place or shift slightly eastward during
the next few days, which should cause the track of Cristina to
gradually bend west-northwestward. The track guidance is in
generally good agreement on this scenario, but small differences
in the location of the ridge over Mexico lead to slightly different
motion headings. The ECMWF maintains the center of the ridge a bit
to the west of the GFS and other models, resulting in a solution on
the southern side of the guidance envelope. The NHC track forecast
is adjusted a hair to the left of the previous one in the direction
of the ECMWF, which has continued to correctly forecast a more
southern track.

The environment in which Cristina is embedded remains ideal for
intensification. The cyclone is located underneath a mid- to upper-
level ridge axis and over very warm waters. The inner core
structure has also become better defined, with the closed ring
seen in microwave imagery signaling that rapid intensification is
a possibility. The NHC forecast is adjusted upward in the short
term based on current trends, and thee is some potential for
Cristina to become stronger than forecast. In about 60 hours,
Cristina should encounter increasing southwesterly shear associated
with an upper-level trough extending southwestward from California
coast and should reach markedly cooler waters in about 4 days. This
should result in a pronounced weakening trend at the end of the
forecast period and perhaps a quick demise. The NHC intensity
forecast is close to the multi-model consensus through 72 hours and
near the LGEM after that time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 15.2N 104.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 15.3N 105.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 15.7N 106.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 16.4N 108.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 17.2N 109.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 18.6N 111.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 15/0600Z 19.2N 113.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 16/0600Z 19.6N 114.7W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
Quoting 333. yonzabam:



This will be one of the most significant consequences of global warming - civil unrest leading to riots, leading to revolutions. The 'Arab spring' revolutions were partly due to rising food prices, due to global crop failures as a result of heat waves. The civil war in Syria is largely due to the worst drought there in over a century.

People get very restless when temperatures soar and they haven't eaten properly for days. You can expect to see more extremists gaining power as a result. Hostage taking at power stations is a new development.

Correct.
A minute's silence for the Nobel Peace Prize 2007.
more likely due to overpopulation & the yearning for freedom after lifetimes of bondage
341. MahFL
Quoting 205. airmet3:



Every time Dr. Masters types this, an angel gets its wings.


The sea water temp also rises.
06Z GFS looks good
The only difference between between this one and the 00Z is that it's just slightly bit S and W of last run
So far
Good amount of rain for the whole area this is needed
Cristina became a Hurricane as expected as I said she might try to make a run for major
344. MahFL
Quoting 246. VAbeachhurricanes:



No idea, but starting the y-axis 2 feet below your minimum datapoint makes it obvious that they are trying to tell you what you should think.


Reading up on it, problems won't really start until spring 2015, even then it will just be some water restrictions and nothing too dire.
no im not in "saint barts" but we still havent had any rain for over a month. tried again last night only to peter out. e. cen fl. it will come down after the water warms up around the island but for now a few showers would be nice
GFS seems to screw up near the end of the run anyway that's on and near the 300hrs timeframe
Hmm moisture is building in the W Carib from West of 70W
Quoting 346. wunderkidcayman:

GFS seems to screw up near the end of the run anyway that's on and near the 300hrs timeframe

... The GFS is screwing up a whole lot more than the end of the run. I honestly don't know why you think this storm it shows will happen. How could it? Shear is high and likely to remain that way, and the MJO pulse that gave us our first development chance a week or so ago is gone. Why would you put your trust in a model with known convective feedback problems and a tendency to create ghost storms in the Caribbean because of this when the environmental conditions clearly aren't favorable. Plus, the ECMWF and CMC show nothing at all on our side.
Quoting 307. wunderkidcayman:

Very interesting US Gulf coast landfall before the 300hrs mark
Which is well a marked improvement
Than the last several runs that have it landfalling 300hrs
Currently 110600Z landfalling as a TS at 240hrs
While past runs had it just in the S GOM at 240hrs

Good Morning!

That will be very interesting if that GFS scenario pans out, even if it is a long 300 hours out in time!

Although everyone has their own opinion on the GFS these days, I really like how weather watchers and experts on here ... post this information on possible tropical development .... using the GFS. It is truly a "heads up," not crying wolf.

Using the GFS, one of the best (of 3 models) to look into the "Cristobol," of this year's Atlantic Hurricane Season, we can observe possible trends and future scenarios. Of course, the Euro and other models are also excellent forecasting tools. When all models agree, it gets even better!

Even though El Nino is already flexing his muscle, we still could get hit on the Gulf Coast, and it is possible a storm might ride up the Atlantic coast. Many "El Nino" hurricane seasons in the past, have cranked out a Gulf Coast hurricane or tropical storm landfall.

Thanks for keeping us informed, all of you @ WU !
still having problems with nhc's site. hopefully they have it ironed out before cape verde season
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

... The GFS is screwing up a whole lot more than the end of the run. I honestly don't know why you think this storm it shows will happen. How could it? Shear is high and likely to remain that way, and the MJO pulse that gave us our first development chance a week or so ago is gone. Why would you put your trust in a model with known convective feedback problems and a tendency to create ghost storms in the Caribbean because of this when the environmental conditions clearly aren't favorable. Plus, the ECMWF and CMC show nothing at all on our side.



Not one GFS 300 hour prediction has come true in the past 4 weeks.
Not even close.
352. MahFL
Quoting 350. islander101010:

still having problems with nhc's site. hopefully they have it ironed out before cape verde season


What problems ?, be specific, OS, browser, device being used etc.
353. MahFL
Quoting 351. Sfloridacat5:




Not one GFS 300 hour prediction has come true in the past 4 weeks.
Not even close.


That's because it's June, I think we typically get 1/2 a tropical storm per year in June, so obviously some years non will occur.
macbook a bunch of the characters are having the same
355. Ed22
Quoting 311. wunderkidcayman:


Umm dude where have you been Cristina will not be the first EPac hurricane
Amanda was the Hurricane in fact it was on the verge of becoming a Cat 5
It's was 155mph

Cristina will likely become the second
Good morning everyone. I'm going to try to take a stab at the current conditions and give my analysis of the whole Caribbean situation.

Showers and thunderstorms over Venezuela accompany by a low amplitude tropical wave continues to move west. It will eventually emerge out in the SW Caribbean along the monsoon trough. Right now conditions remain hostile in the Western Caribbean with a ribbon of high wind shear. If and that's a big if shear can lower some and the monsoon trough lifts north then there is a possibility of some slow development over the next 5-7 days. What I find interesting is every subsequent run of the GFS shows the system developing further and further west until it's near the coast which lends me to believe more that the EPAC will have a higher chance of seeing another storm before the Atlantic since that will be the main focus of the upward motion of the MJO.

Latest surface chart:



72 hr. forecast:



36 hr. wind shear forecast:



Good model consensus from the GFS ensemble members and ECMWF on where the MJO will be.



A spin over Fla

358. Ed22
Quoting 355. Ed22:
thanks for that info I rejoined yesterday thanks dude.
That dull moment when the GFS and ECMWF agrees. :D
Quoting MahFL:


That's because it's June, I think we typically get 1/2 a tropical storm per year in June, so obviously some years non will occur.


My point is it is foolish to think these long range forecasts are going to come true. For at least 4 weeks (model run after model run), not one long range forecast has come true.

The saying "every once in a while a blind squirrel finds a nut" comes to mind.

That's the GFS. If it keep predicting a storm eventually it will happen. But we will most likely need to wait until July or Aug.
Quoting 357. unknowncomic:

A spin over Fla




ULL
Quoting 236. VAbeachhurricanes:



That graph is basically specifically made to make it look way more dire than it actually is.


Ummm...Lake Mead is currently at record lows, and thanks to the drought there's not much snowpack left to fill it in. Meanwhile, thirsty Las Vegans and others are sucking water out of the lake at an idiotically record pace (70% of Vegas' heavy water usage goes for landscaping). So, no, that graph isn't made to make the situation look dire; it *is* dire. Experts predict that Lake Mead will reach "dead pool' stage sometime in the next 20 years; what happens then?

Quoting unknowncomic:
A spin over Fla



Yes, that was just to Florida's east yesterday over the Bahamas. It got our storms going early yesterday.
No mention of it in our local weather.
Quoting KoritheMan:


ULL

It's also pulling in some dry air from the north.
Eastcoast and inland locations are supposed to have a better chance of storms today.
Off topic, but is anyone tech savvy with iPhones? The color display for certain images on my 4s is...strange. For example, this is what AVN satellite looks on my 4s.



It should look like...

Quoting 365. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Off topic, but is anyone tech savvy with iPhones? The color display for certain images on my 4s is...strange. For example, this is what AVN satellite looks on my 4s.



It should look like...




iPhone just sucks. I'm already contemplating an Android and I just got this phone.
Best chance of storms today is over the Eastcoast and inland areas. S.W. flow should keep storms away from the west coast beaches.


Up in the Panhandle things are already in progress. Strong storms just offshore. It's going to be a wet day up there today.

Hey does anyone have access to the Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion from crownweather.com
Double post
Quoting 333. yonzabam:



This will be one of the most significant consequences of global warming - civil unrest leading to riots, leading to revolutions. The 'Arab spring' revolutions were partly due to rising food prices, due to global crop failures as a result of heat waves. The civil war in Syria is largely due to the worst drought there in over a century.

People get very restless when temperatures soar and they haven't eaten properly for days. You can expect to see more extremists gaining power as a result. Hostage taking at power stations is a new development.
and remember in the united states the republican controlled house of representatives has voted to not allow the military to have any funding at all for studying how global warming could be a national security threat.
HRRR model agrees with local forecasts and keeps the majority of the storms over on the East coast today.
Panhandle is in for a stormy day.

The GFDL is forecasting a Baja landfalling storm in 108 hours.
TropicalAnalystwx13 7:46 AM EDT on June 11, 2014

Good Morning Everyone.  Nice call yesterday afternoon TA13.  You did a nice analysis and argument yesterday as to why you thought that Christina might intensify further than initially forecast.  You turned out to be correct; the storm looks very healthy this morning, with a strong core, and it has fully mixed out any dry air for the moment:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/03E/imagery/wv0-lalo.gif
Day 7
Quoting 372. Sfloridacat5:

The GFDL is forecasting a Baja landfalling storm in 108 hours.



GFDL/HWRF have had a persistent northward bias with this system. Their output is based on GFS integration, and it is likely that they are responding to a spurious trough that is much weaker than advertised. CIMSS steering data shows the ridge extending all the way up to 200 mb, so even rapid intensification will not lead to a landfall.
HWRF


This is about as close to the coast as the storm gets as it fall apart.



If my ankle wasn't currently messed up I'd be catching a flight for the Mexican coast to catch some waves.
Good morning to everyone!! OMG GORGEOUS morning here in Clearwater, Florida. At my friends beach house right now and just dipping my toes in the white sand on the beach right now. And Breakfast and Bloody Mary's are coming right up!!! :)

I love my rain but I will take some sun today. Not complaining. At least back home in Southern Illinois it has been wet so my sister has been VERY HAPPY! But I am loving this Florida life and thinking this might be the place to stay. I mean the sun is so HOT down here. I almost need sun block by 9am in the morning!! lol :)

Alyssa

Quoting 362. Neapolitan:



Ummm...Lake Mead is currently at record lows, and thanks to the drought there's not much snowpack left to fill it in. Meanwhile, thirsty Las Vegans and others are sucking water out of the lake at an idiotically record pace (70% of Vegas' heavy water usage goes for landscaping). So, no, that graph isn't made to make the situation look dire; it *is* dire. Experts predict that Lake Mead will reach "dead pool' stage sometime in the next 20 years; what happens then?



And who's to say it doesn't get a surge of moisture from a series of systems within the next 10 years to replenish it. I guess I'm just a glass lake half full kind of gal. ;-)

Alyssa
California Current doing its thing to cool off the water down most of the Baja Penn.
Quoting 378. StormingInChicago:


And who's to say it doesn't get a surge of moisture from a series of systems within the next 10 years to replenish it. I guess I'm just a glass lake half full kind of gal. ;-)

Alyssa


"There is a 50 percent chance Lake Mead, a key source of water for millions of people in the southwestern United States, will be dry by 2021 if climate changes as expected and future water usage is not curtailed, according to a pair of researchers at Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego.

Without Lake Mead and neighboring Lake Powell, the Colorado River system has no buffer to sustain the population of the Southwest through an unusually dry year, or worse, a sustained drought. In such an event, water deliveries would become highly unstable and variable, said research marine physicist Tim Barnett and climate scientist David Pierce.

Barnett and Pierce concluded that human demand, natural forces like evaporation, and human-induced climate change are creating a net deficit of nearly 1 million acre-feet of water per year from the Colorado River system that includes Lake Mead and Lake Powell. This amount of water can supply roughly 8 million people. Their analysis of Federal Bureau of Reclamation records of past water demand and calculations of scheduled water allocations and climate conditions indicate that the system could run dry even if mitigation measures now being proposed are implemented.

The paper, "When will Lake Mead go dry?," has been accepted for publication in the peer-reviewed journal Water Resources Research, published by the American Geophysical Union, and is accessible via the AGU's website (see instructions below)." Link

The researchers who study these things are the ones to "say".
377 StormingInChicago 8:37 AM EDT on June 11, 2014

There are thousands of people over the years who came to Florida from the North for a vacation, college, or Spring Break and decided to stay.  Back in the 70's and 80's in my younger days, when I was in the Florida Keys almost every month fishing or playing music in a band, I would say that about half of the younger bartenders that I met from Key Largo to Key West were from the North-Mid-West and came to the Keys or South Florida during Spring Break and came back for good......................Of course, there was much less people and development in those days; it's too crowed and overpriced these days in the Keys but still a great place to visit.  Enjoy Your Stay in the Sunshine State.
In fact, two of my old band mates, and we had a two year stretch playing the Tiki Bar in Islamorada every few months, ended up marrying (and still married with kids now) two of those "Northern" bartenders; one was from Chicago and the other one from Toronto......................... :)
Quoting 381. weathermanwannabe:

377 StormingInChicago 8:37 AM EDT on June 11, 2014

There are thousands of people over the years who came to Florida from the North for a vacation, college, or Spring Break and decided to stay. Back in the 70's and 80's in my younger days, when I was in the Florida Keys almost every month fishing or playing music in a band, I would say that about half of the younger bartenders that I met from Key Largo to Key West were from the North-Mid-West and came to the Keys or South Florida during Spring Break and came back for good......................Of course, there was much less people and development in those days; it's too crowed and overpriced these days in the Keys but still a great place to visit. Enjoy Your Stay in the Sunshine State.

We probably crossed paths many times..We had a blast ..Yes, absolutely different place back then.

Quoting 386. hydrus:

We probably crossed paths many times..We had a blast ..Yes, absolutely different place back then.
The good old days; with a hotel room or cottage for the weekend and 1/2 price drinks for the band from Sloppy Joe's or the Tiki Bar.  We also brought our fishing gear down and grilled the fish in the "late" afternoon.  As related to the weather, the Key Westers say their prayers, for no direct major hurricane strikes on Key West, every season if a hurricane threatens the Keys at the Grotto on the grounds of St. Mary Star of the Sea church.  Their prayers have been answered for the past several decades.
Quoting 387. weathermanwannabe:


The good old days; with a hotel room or cottage for the weekend and 1/2 price drinks for the band from Sloppy Joe's or the Tiki Bar.  We also brought our fishing gear down and grilled the fish in the "late" afternoon.  As related to the weather, the Key Westers say their prayers, for no direct major hurricane strikes on Key West, every season if a hurricane threatens the Keys at the Grotto on the grounds of St. Mary Star of the Sea church.  Their prayers have been answered for the past several decades.

Yep. In the 70,s, there was a bar on the Middle Keys that was made of coral rock, windows with no glass, open practically 24 hours a day, and mobbed with people. Cannot remember the name..Some of the best times I ever had.
Quoting 381. weathermanwannabe:

377 StormingInChicago 8:37 AM EDT on June 11, 2014

There are thousands of people over the years who came to Florida from the North for a vacation, college, or Spring Break and decided to stay.%uFFFD Back in the 70's and 80's in my younger days, when I was in the Florida Keys almost every month fishing or playing music in a band, I would say that about half of the younger bartenders that I met from Key Largo to Key West were from the North-Mid-West and came to the Keys or South Florida during Spring Break and came back for good......................Of course, there was much less people and development in those days; it's too crowed and overpriced these days in the Keys but still a great place to visit.%uFFFD Enjoy Your Stay in the Sunshine State.


Sounds like you had some AMAZING times down there, WeatherManWannabee. That is so neat. Sounds SO FUN!!! :-)

And I sure will enjoy my time. Thank you! My older sister Natalie farms up in the midwest but I think I am going to recruit her to come down here. And the thunderstorms down here in Florida are like SO MUCH awesomer than Illinois!!! :-)

Okay. See yous all later. Bloody Mary time. *Gulp Gulp*

Alyssa
Get yer kicks on route 66'
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM MITAG (T1406)
21:00 PM JST June 11 2014
===========================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon West Of Minami Daito

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Mitag (994 hPa) located at 25.6N 130.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast at 20 knots.

Gale Force Winds
============
120 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: N/A

Forecast and Intensity
================
24 HRS 32.0N 141.6E - Extratropical Low southeast of Hachijo-shima
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
CYCLONIC STORM NANAUK (ARB01-2014)
14:30 PM IST June 11 2014
===============================

At 9:00 AM UTC, The cyclonic storm NANAUK over east central Arabian Sea moved west northwestwards with a speed of 6 knots during past 6 hours and lay centered near 17.0N 66.5E, about 710 km west southwest of Mumbai, 590 km south southwest of Veraval and 900 km east southeast of Masirah Island (Oman).

It would intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hrs. It would move west northwestwards towards Oman coast during next 120 hours.

According to satellite imagery the intensity of the system is T3.0. Associated broken low/medium clouds embedded with intense to very intense convection is seen over the Arabian sea between 14.0N to 19.0N 60.0E to 69.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -80C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The state of the sea is high to very high around the cyclone. Central pressure of the cyclonic storm is 990 hpa.

The sea surface temperature over the region is about 30-32C. The ocean thermal energy is about 80-120 kj/cm2. The relative vorticity in lower levels along with the low level convergence and the upper level divergence remained the same during the past six hours the vertical wind shear in the horizontal wind over the region continues to be about 10-20 knots. The system would intensify due to favorable sea surface temperatures, low level vorticity and upper level divergence. The system would move west northwestwards under the influence of the subtropical upper tropospheric ridge near 25.0N in association with the anticyclonic circulation over Gulf of Iran and adjoining northwest Arabian sea.

Forecast and Intensity
=================
9 HRS 17.4N 66.0E - 50 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
21 HRS 17.9N 65.2E - 60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
45 HRS 18.9N 63.3E - 65 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
69 HRS 19.8N 61.4E - 60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
Quoting 373. weathermanwannabe:

TropicalAnalystwx13 7:46 AM EDT on June 11, 2014

Good Morning Everyone. Nice call yesterday afternoon TA13. You did a nice analysis and argument yesterday as to why you thought that Christina might intensify further than initially forecast. You turned out to be correct; the storm looks very healthy this morning, with a strong core, and it has fully mixed out any dry air for the moment:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/03E/imagery/wv0-lalo.gif


Thanks for the compliment. We'll see if it manages to attain my peak intensity of 90kt. Right now, there's still some dry air impeding on more significant development (as evidenced by the microwave pass below), but that should change later today.

gfs....5 days out....all is quiet


Quoting weathermanwannabe:
377 StormingInChicago 8:37 AM EDT on June 11, 2014

There are thousands of people over the years who came to Florida from the North for a vacation, college, or Spring Break and decided to stay. Back in the 70's and 80's in my younger days, when I was in the Florida Keys almost every month fishing or playing music in a band, I would say that about half of the younger bartenders that I met from Key Largo to Key West were from the North-Mid-West and came to the Keys or South Florida during Spring Break and came back for good......................Of course, there was much less people and development in those days; it's too crowed and overpriced these days in the Keys but still a great place to visit. Enjoy Your Stay in the Sunshine State.



After three years at FSU I found I missed four well defined season including solid no doubt about it winter. Even in DC I'd prefer a cooler climate, perhaps MSP or MSN (the latter with a top rated Met research institution) Severe weather is a strong minus for me though and these two places get more than DC
397. Ed22
Good morning everyone, the ULL over Florida bears watching these miner disturbances have a developing quickly into cyclone; could this one have a chance to" maybe."
To da wunderground folks invading NOLA this day thru the weekend, travel safe,

The Big Easy awaits.

Kori will be on a short leash.

: P

Royal Orleans

Quoting 395. ricderr:

gfs....5 days out....all is quiet





My birthday is July 24th and I'm planning on going deep sea fishing. Does the GFS show anything that I need to worry about?
Quoting 397. Ed22:

Good morning everyone, the ULL over Florida bears watching these miner disturbances have a developing quickly into cyclone; could this one have a chance to" maybe."


High wind shear in the gulf so the gulf is closed
Quoting 399. jrweatherman:



My birthday is July 24th and I'm planning on going deep sea fishing. Does the GFS show anything that I need to worry about?

Ask that agin. When the G F S is with in that time line
402. Ed22
Good morning everyone, the ULL over Florida bears watching these miner disturbances have a way ofdeveloping quickly into cyclone; could this one have a chance to" maybe."
I'll be in Key West from Aug 21 thru 28th
Very excited.
Looking forward to never coming back to real life.
My birthday is July 24th and I'm planning on going deep sea fishing. Does the GFS show anything that I need to worry about?



why yes it does jr.......while i will only post a graph at 5 days out and the ten day runs are worthless.....there is a secret society that has access to the 40 day run that is always spot on.....sad news for your fishing day as exactly where you are fishing...will be dead in the eye of a cat 5 widowmaker
Heavy SAL as usual.... bored.

Quoting 374. SFLWeatherman:

Day 7


The fact that this has hinted on a wave or trof of lower pressures for days 6 and 7 since yesterday
Also if you look at this (the link below) and go out to Sun/Mon you can see where they have a low sitting just N of NE Honduran Coast
Link

GFS day 5 and 6





GFS forms the low late day 5 early day 6
But the whole W Carib area lowers pressure from late day 3 early day 4
Convection build up and the disturbance as a whole starts early day 4

So maybe maybe not
What I do know is that what ever forms whether it's a low, a storm, a tropical wave, or a trof of low pressure it's gonna get wet
Quoting 404. ricderr:

My birthday is July 24th and I'm planning on going deep sea fishing. Does the GFS show anything that I need to worry about?



why yes it does jr.......while i will only post a graph at 5 days out and the ten day runs are worthless.....there is a secret society that has access to the 40 day run that is always spot on.....sad news for your fishing day as exactly where you are fishing...will be dead in the eye of a cat 5 widowmaker


Dang, I guess I'll have to go to the movies...
Quoting 397. Ed22:

Good morning everyone, the ULL over Florida bears watching these miner disturbances have a developing quickly into cyclone; could this one have a chance to" maybe."


While ULL can sometimes transitions into tropical systems, they usually take some time to do so and right now I don't believe there is any model support.
Quoting 405. CaribBoy:

Heavy SAL as usual.... bored.



Just be glad your not having one of those desert sand storms
410. Ed22
Hurricane Cristina the second hurricane of the Eastern pacific hurricane season with hurricane forced wind of 75mph is strengthening rapidly. It could reach category two by this evening with hurricane forced of 100 mph or more, meanwhile the tropical Atlantic remains quiet or a next day.
I can see Cristina making Cat 3 for a short period
412. MahFL
Quoting 401. Tazmanian:


Ask that agin. When the G F S is with in that time line


I think jr was being sarcastic, that's lost on a lot of people on the web....
Quoting 396. georgevandenberghe:




After three years at FSU I found I missed four well defined season including solid no doubt about it winter. Even in DC I'd prefer a cooler climate, perhaps MSP or MSN (the latter with a top rated Met research institution) Severe weather is a strong minus for me though and these two places get more than DC


Not me. After 1 year at FSU, I decided never to go back to southern VA. My grad school program was only a year, I had no idea how I would be able to stay at the time. Now, here I am, one day from my 12 year anniversary of moving here. :)
415. Ed22
Quoting 408. jrweatherman:



While ULL can sometimes transitions into tropical systems, they usually take some time to do so and right now I don't believe there is any model support.
remember that I said maybe I didn't was going develop into anything major you know but I really believe that these miner disturbances take some time to transition into tropical cyclone, it needs fravourable environment to do so ok.
Quoting CaribBoy:
Heavy SAL as usual.... bored.



Yeah, and a new cloud of dust leaving Africa.
Heaviest concentrations I've seen in a while.
WV analysis shows nothing but dry air everywhere over the Atl.

Look West, young man !

:):))
Quoting 417. pottery:



Yeah, and a new cloud of dust leaving Africa.
Heaviest concentrations I've seen in a while.
WV analysis shows nothing but dry air everywhere over the Atl.

Look West, young man !

:):))
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 404. ricderr:

My birthday is July 24th and I'm planning on going deep sea fishing. Does the GFS show anything that I need to worry about?



why yes it does jr.......while i will only post a graph at 5 days out and the ten day runs are worthless.....there is a secret society that has access to the 40 day run that is always spot on.....sad news for your fishing day as exactly where you are fishing...will be dead in the eye of a cat 5 widowmaker
on july 24th in18 years i will be visiting tampa. Does the GFS show anything ?
2014 Tornado Season



422. flsky
So the miners are in an uproar?
Quoting 402. Ed22:

Good morning everyone, the ULL over Florida bears watching these miner disturbances have a way ofdeveloping quickly into cyclone; could this one have a chance to" maybe."
423. MahFL
Quoting 416. AussieStorm:

N Korea: Leader scolds 'inaccurate' weather forecasters



The lady is perhaps wondering if she'll be still alive to do tomorrows forecast ?
Quoting 421. Sfloridacat5:

2014 Tornado Season






Substantially below normal tornado numbers to date in Florida, but we really don't have a tornado season, so we have a lot of months left. Although the largest number of tornadoes occur in June through August in FL as well.

Oklahoma looks well below normal.
Quoting 370. intampa:

and remember in the united states the republican controlled house of representatives has voted to not allow the military to have any funding at all for studying how global warming could be a national security threat.
Until the next terrorist attack, when the Republicans will all be attacking Obama and Clinton because they didn't protect the US enough.
Quoting 420. drs2008:

on july 24th in18 years i will be visiting tampa. Does the GFS show anything ?

Partially light during the day, moderately dark at night