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Quiet in the Atlantic; 94E in Eastern Pacific Not a Threat to Land

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:26 PM GMT on June 09, 2014

There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis are predicting development over the coming five days (as I discussed in a blog post in August 2013, there are three models that have reasonable skill making forecasts of the genesis of new Atlantic tropical cyclones up to four days in advance--the European, GFS, and UKMET models.) Strong upper-level winds, associated with the subtropical jet stream, are bringing high levels of wind shear over the tropical Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, and these high winds are forecast to persist for the remainder of the week. The GFS model predicts that about 8 - 11 days from now the upper level winds over the Western Caribbean will relax and low-level moisture will build, potentially allowing a tropical disturbance with heavy rains to develop there.


Figure 1. Wind shear forecast for 11 am EDT Saturday, June 14, 2014, made by the 06Z UTC June 9, 2014 run of the GFS model. The model predicts low shear less than 6 m/s (12 knots), the two lightest red colors, for the Eastern Pacific. However, in the Atlantic, strong upper level winds associated with the subtropical jet stream are predicted to bring high levels of wind shear in excess of 40 m/s (78 knots), yellow and orange colors, to the tropical Atlantic. Image is from our wundermap with the model layer turned on.

Eastern Pacific disturbance 94E no threat to land
In the Eastern Pacific, a tropical disturbance (94E) located about 150 miles south-southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico, is moving west-northwest, parallel to the coast, at about 5 - 10 mph. Satellite loops show that 94E has developed a large area of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops that are showing rotation, and 94E is close to tropical depression status. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) gave 94-E a 90% chance of developing into a depression or a named storm (Cristina) in the next five days. The bulk of 94E's heavy rains are expected to remain offshore of Mexico this week, and our most reliable track models, the GFS and European, show no threat to land this week.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

A low pressure may try to form and drift north from Belize ?

thanks dr m as always
Thanks Doc...It looks like El-Nino already with that jet stream cutting through the Atlantic Basin.
Quoting 1. caribbeantracker01:
A low pressure may try to form and drift north from Belize ?



If it comes to fruition then GFS was correct in showing this possibility last week. But we shall see if it happens.
Thanks Dr. M. I'll take a quiet basin, even though its boring and all we have are long rangers to gawk at :o)

Not to long til Cape Verde season kicks in and we can start watching waves come off Africa.
thanx doc.......thought this part needed bolding......


as I discussed in a blog post in August 2013, there are three models that have reasonable skill making forecasts of the genesis of new Atlantic tropical cyclones up to four days in advance--the European, GFS, and UKMET models.)
Quoting 1. caribbeantracker01:

A low pressure may try to form and drift north from Belize ?




No.
Quoting 6. ricderr:

thanx doc.......thought this part needed bolding......


as I discussed in a blog post in August 2013, there are three models that have reasonable skill making forecasts of the genesis of new Atlantic tropical cyclones up to four days in advance--the European, GFS, and UKMET models.)



One can learn a LOT jus by reading the entrie's here.

ECMWF look off NC

Quoting 6. ricderr:

thanx doc.......thought this part needed bolding......


as I discussed in a blog post in August 2013, there are three models that have reasonable skill making forecasts of the genesis of new Atlantic tropical cyclones up to four days in advance--the European, GFS, and UKMET models.)



That made me recall a very interesting entry last year on modeling gap and accuracy. Hopefully each year with the advent of new computing technology and more historical data, we continue to narrow that gap.
http://www.wunderground.com/news/recent-storms-hi ghlight-flaws-in-us-forecasting-20130315

That made me recall a very interesting entry last year on modeling gap and accuracy. Hopefully each year with the advent of new computing technology and more historical data, we continue to narrow that gap


on the US side it's going to take some money which at this time it doesn't seem like congress is willing to give up......afraid it will take a disaster where people get hurt because forecasting didn't do a good enough job before funding weather science becomes a priority
Quoting 826. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning. The pending storm in the E-Pac consolidated overnight and is looking better this morning in terms of development. It looked like this on Friday, elongated over the weekend, and has consolidated over the past 18 hours with convection firing more uniformly near the center of the low. Might have a tropical depression within the next 48 hours per the latest NHC discussion:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/epac/rb-l.jpg



Got 1.5" of rain last night from the outer fringes of this here in P. Escondido. Sea surface is glassy with a Southwest ground swell of 1.5 - 2 mtrs which was a change from yesterday's nasty wind chop from the southeast. Storm must be consolidating its winds towards the center. Looks like the coast of SW Mex is going to get some weather from this thing after all before it moves out.
One can learn a LOT jus by reading the entrie's here.



true dat.......
Again our thanks from Miramar Beach, Florida for all of your good work -- which we have followed post-Opel from your day 1. At your leisure, could you bring us up to speed on where we stand with weather satellite losses/outages/replacement schedules as the season looms? Thanks again, and all wishes.
The smoke was so bad here over night that some of the roads had to be shutdown!
the massive brush fire was in the Everglades in Broward County
Quoting 1. caribbeantracker01:

A low pressure may try to form and drift north from Belize ?



More like N from Honduras
Mind you this is just a possibility and as Doc Jeff says 8 or so days away
"The GFS model predicts that about 8 - 11 days from now the upper level winds over the Western Caribbean will relax and low-level moisture will build, potentially allowing a tropical disturbance with heavy rains to develop there."

To add to that the GFS and NOAA's FIM model predicts
As some of you may (or may not) have noticed, I've mostly stopped posting here. Things tend to get a little out of hand at the beginning of each hurricane season, but it has become intolerable this year, with the signal to noise ratio just way too high. There are people here that really understand the tropics. I won't name them all but, if you've been here any length of time, you know who they are. We also have people who are really clueless about the tropics, and model in particular. It has gotten to the point where I have to wade though 20 clueless posts to get to one of the good ones.

Please read Dr. Master's 2013 blog about models...and then read it again. It's really not all that hard. Then look at what a model forecasts three days from now. Some point of landfall 330 hours out is totally meaningless. If what a model predicts three days out doesn't happen, and it does so repeatedly, that model is not working. The constant posts about each twist and turn of a model, especially the GFS, with each new run, does not contribute anything to the knowledge base of people trying to learn tropical weather, but it's really good at confusing them.

I'll be back when something is really happening. There are lots of weather events happening in continental North America and Europe right now, but they get drowned in the noise about the latest crazed model runs. I don't run this place and I can't tell people what or what not to post. My opinion is my own and, for now, I just prefer to not wade through so many posts that I consider a waste of bandwidth and my time.
Thanks Dr Masters.
I'll be back when something is really happening. There are lots of weather events happening in continental North America and Europe right now, but they get drowned in the noise about the latest crazed model runs. I don't run this place and I can't tell people what or what not to post. My opinion is my own and, for now, I just prefer to not wade through so many posts that I consider a waste of bandwidth and my time.


sar...i couldn't agree with you more.....if you talk about possible landfalls of a 9-12 day model you're a fool in my most humbleless of opinions......i wish you would stay however and avoid the noise...too many good bloggers have been driven off by the drivel of a few....
Sar,
I hope you'll consider staying. I enjoy reading your posts. My ignore list has gotten so large, sometimes it feels like I'm in here by myself. Far too many good posters have been driven off. Feels more like some aol chat room, rather than a weather blog.

Quoting 19. sar2401:

As some of you may (or may not) have noticed, I've mostly stopped posting here. Things tend to get a little out of hand at the beginning of each hurricane season, but it has become intolerable this year, with the signal to noise ratio just way too high. There are people here that really understand the tropics. I won't name them all but, if you've been here any length of time, you know who they are. We also have people who are really clueless about the tropics, and model in particular. It has gotten to the point where I have to wade though 20 clueless posts to get to one of the good ones.

Please read Dr. Master's 2013 blog about models...and then read it again. It's really not all that hard. Then look at what a model forecasts three days from now. Some point of landfall 330 hours out is totally meaningless. If what a model predicts three days out doesn't happen, and it does so repeatedly, that model is not working. The constant posts about each twist and turn of a model, especially the GFS, with each new run, does not contribute anything to the knowledge base of people trying to learn tropical weather, but it's really good at confusing them.

I'll be back when something is really happening. There are lots of weather events happening in continental North America and Europe right now, but they get drowned in the noise about the latest crazed model runs. I don't run this place and I can't tell people what or what not to post. My opinion is my own and, for now, I just prefer to not wade through so many posts that I consider a waste of bandwidth and my time.
Quoting 17. SFLWeatherman:

The smoke was so bad here over night that some of the roads had to be shutdown!
the massive brush fire was in the Everglades in Broward County

probably caused by all that lightning last evening down there
sar, I agree. Anyone who follows the weather knows that the accuracy of forecasts is in free fall by 4-5 days out, and breathless pronouncements based on long range forecasts are nothing more than prattle



THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH
THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY.

DISCUSSION...

A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN
ALABAMA THROUGH NORTHWEST GEORGIA LATER THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH
MAINLY STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED...CANNOT RULE OUT COMPLETELY A
SEVERE STORM WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND AFFECT MAINLY NORTHERN
SECTIONS ONCE AGAIN.

Some much needed rain moving through Southcentral Texas.
Thanks Dr. Masters!
Anyone know if this band of showers/storms pushing through TX/LA is supposed to hold together? I'm in Pascagoula MS and need a little rumble!
If anyone wants to post long range weather models, please do so as I have no problems with seeing them..I have been here 8 years and that has always been a tradition here..there are some people trying to change rules and instead of putting a person on ignore they want to cause a fit and complain..I will continue to post long range model runs..We are all weather enthusiants here..how do you expect a person to plan to uproot his/her family and leave at a three day notice as some of you are claiming as that is only when you should pay attention..your local weather man should only post three day forecasts as well according to your logic..I went through Floyd and according to your logic I should have turned off the TV when the forecasters said it was going to Florida..You can go back to probably all the majors in landfall for the US and see they didnt just pop up in the 3-5 day window..the skill level isn't even the best for your 3-5 window so lets be honest here..the models are only guidance and if you are tired of seeing long range model runs for the tropical weather you so proclaim to love then you dont really love tropical weather but instead just want to complain about something....this place use to have substance but instead its filled with drama every single day..definitely not what is was in previous years..
Quoting saltydog1327:
Anyone know if this band of showers/storms pushing through TX/LA is supposed to hold together? I'm in Pascagoula MS and need a little rumble!


You should see some storms moving through your area later this afternoon into this evening/tonight.




going up to 80% on invest 94E at 2pm
Thanks Sfloridacat5!

thanks for the lunch time read doc
and none of the reliable models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis are predicting development over the coming five days (as I discussed in a blog post in August 2013, there are three models that have reasonable skill making forecasts of the genesis of new Atlantic tropical cyclones up to four days in advance-


i think some are missing the key word here :-)
Quoting 35. hurricanes2018:




invest 94E maybe up to 80% to 100% soon!!
Quoting 34. ricderr:

and none of the reliable models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis are predicting development over the coming five days (as I discussed in a blog post in August 2013, there are three models that have reasonable skill making forecasts of the genesis of new Atlantic tropical cyclones up to four days in advance-


i think some are missing the key word here :-)





u need to watch this!!
Quoting 13. ricderr:


That made me recall a very interesting entry last year on modeling gap and accuracy. Hopefully each year with the advent of new computing technology and more historical data, we continue to narrow that gap


on the US side it's going to take some money which at this time it doesn't seem like congress is willing to give up......afraid it will take a disaster where people get hurt because forecasting didn't do a good enough job before funding weather science becomes a priority


You left out the word again at the end... Very Valid point.
ALERT ATCF MIL 95X XXX 140609120000
2014060912
12.8 69.0
17.2 66.9
150
13.6 68.1
091330
1406091330
1
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTIO21 PGTW 091330
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.8N 69.0E TO 17.2N 66.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 091230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.6N 68.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 101330Z.
//
9514060706 132N 704E 15
9514060712 132N 700E 15
9514060718 132N 696E 15
9514060800 132N 692E 15
9514060806 131N 688E 15
9514060812 129N 682E 20
9514060818 127N 678E 25
9514060900 126N 673E 25
9514060906 130N 673E 25
9514060912 136N 681E 30
NNNN

Quoting 19. sar2401:

As some of you may (or may not) have noticed, I've mostly stopped posting here. Things tend to get a little out of hand at the beginning of each hurricane season, but it has become intolerable this year, with the signal to noise ratio just way too high. There are people here that really understand the tropics. I won't name them all but, if you've been here any length of time, you know who they are. We also have people who are really clueless about the tropics, and model in particular. It has gotten to the point where I have to wade though 20 clueless posts to get to one of the good ones.

Please read Dr. Master's 2013 blog about models...and then read it again. It's really not all that hard. Then look at what a model forecasts three days from now. Some point of landfall 330 hours out is totally meaningless. If what a model predicts three days out doesn't happen, and it does so repeatedly, that model is not working. The constant posts about each twist and turn of a model, especially the GFS, with each new run, does not contribute anything to the knowledge base of people trying to learn tropical weather, but it's really good at confusing them.

I'll be back when something is really happening. There are lots of weather events happening in continental North America and Europe right now, but they get drowned in the noise about the latest crazed model runs. I don't run this place and I can't tell people what or what not to post. My opinion is my own and, for now, I just prefer to not wade through so many posts that I consider a waste of bandwidth and my time.


Sar, I respect you and hold your posts in very high regard - especially radar dog - but I must disagree with you on the postings of various long range models. I've learned not to give a prediction of a 970mb low off the coast of Florida two weeks away any value, but it forces me to deep deeper into the info that caused the GFS to spin up such a storm.

I've learned to take so many variables into account, MJO... shear... SSTs... elements of tropical formation that prior to my lurking here and reading Dr. Masters I knew almost nothing about. Folks posting images of long range models gives me fuel to go off and do further research and come to my own conclusions.
Quoting 34. ricderr:

and none of the reliable models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis are predicting development over the coming five days (as I discussed in a blog post in August 2013, there are three models that have reasonable skill making forecasts of the genesis of new Atlantic tropical cyclones up to four days in advance-


i think some are missing the key word here :-)


I caught that you used it...

And the fires were sparked by lightning in SFL.
Quoting 40. GTstormChaserCaleb:

7 days


right now

xx/xx/xx
Quoting 40. GTstormChaserCaleb:

7 days


yes next weekend we'll see how things look down there, water temps close to florida's west coast are mid to upper 80's now...getting ripe for any storm that comes close.
Quoting 43. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


That looks bad already.
h-man...i love to blob watch...but then i see this


TXPZ23 KNES 091231
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94E)

B. 09/1145Z

C. 15.2N

D. 102.7W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...94E STARTING TO LOOK BETTER IN IMAGERY WITH CONVECTION
STILL UNORGANIZED BUT WRAPPING JUST OVER .2 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A
DT OF 1.0 MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIBLER
THANK YOU!
Quoting 44. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

right now

xx/xx/xx

I caught that you used it...

And the fires were sparked by lightning in SFL.



i remember many fires caused by lightening when living there......now here...they're almost always caused by man
Quoting 29. ncstorm:

If anyone wants to post long range weather models, please do so as I have no problems with seeing them..I have been here 8 years and that has always been a tradition here..there are some people trying to change rules and instead of putting a person on ignore they want to cause a fit and complain..I will continue to post long range model runs..We are all weather enthusiants here..how do you expect a person to plan to uproot his/her family and leave at a three day notice as some of you are claiming as that is only when you should pay attention..your local weather man should only post three day forecasts as well according to your logic..I went through Floyd and according to your logic I should have turned off the TV when the forecasters said it was going to Florida..You can go back to probably all the majors in landfall for the US and see they didnt just pop up in the 3-5 day window..the skill level isn't even the best for your 3-5 window so lets be honest here..the models are only guidance and if you are tired of seeing long range model runs for the tropical weather you so proclaim to love then you dont really love tropical weather but instead just want to complain about something....this place use to have substance but instead its filled with drama every single day..definitely not what is was in previous years..
yes same here, thank you,this blog IN season is for tropical and severe weather and those of us who live IN the danger zones like to see what Might happen down the road a bit...gives time to prep if you havent done so already..and its part of the tropical experience.
T.C.F.A.
94E/INV/XX/XX
Quoting 46. hydrus:

That looks bad already.
just getting itself together
ALERT ATCF MIL 94X XXX 140609120000
2014060912
15.7 258.4
16.9 253.8
115
15.9 257.7
091500
1406091500
1
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPN21 PHNC 091500
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
115 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.7N 101.6W TO 16.9N 106.2W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 091400Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.9N 102.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 101500Z.
//
9414060612 117N 991W 20
9414060618 117N 991W 20
9414060700 119N 993W 20
9414060706 122N 996W 20
9414060712 125N 999W 20
9414060718 130N1003W 25
9414060800 135N1006W 25
9414060806 141N1010W 25
9414060812 146N1013W 25
9414060818 150N1016W 25
9414060900 154N1019W 25
9414060906 157N1021W 25
9414060912 159N1023W 25
NNNN

so is 94
Sar, I respect you and hold your posts in very high regard - especially radar dog - but I must disagree with you on the postings of various long range models. I've learned not to give a prediction of a 970mb low off the coast of Florida two weeks away any value, but it forces me to deep deeper into the info that caused the GFS to spin up such a storm.

I've learned to take so many variables into account, MJO... shear... SSTs... elements of tropical formation that prior to my lurking here and reading Dr. Masters I knew almost nothing about. Folks posting images of long range models gives me fuel to go off and do further research and come to my own conclusions.



first...thanx for getting the point we're talking genesis here....second...you just posted a great example of the good of long range models......i'm sure from watching these very blogs....most know...what you do...is in the minority of what most do.....
see all those Lows on the pacific side..1 or 2 jump over into the carribean next sunday or so per GFS...
Thanks Dr.  Here is the latest WV shot for 94E.  Nice to know that it will probably not be a threat to land as it moves towards the NW.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/94E/imagery/wv0-lalo.gif
Damn that's nasty!

I imagine Invest 94E will be declared a tropical depression at 21z. With such deep, persistent convection east of the center, I wouldn't be surprised if this was producing tropical storm-force winds somewhere, but we haven't seen any good ASCAT passes for the past 48 hours (go figure).

I'll be glad when RapidSCAT launches in early August.

lol
384 hours

Quoting 50. Houstonweathergrl:

THANK YOU!

No need to yell.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I imagine Invest 94E will be declared a tropical depression at 21z. With such deep, persistent convection east of the center, I wouldn't be surprised if this was producing tropical storm-force winds somewhere, but we haven't seen any good ASCAT passes for the past 48 hours (go figure).

I'll be glad when RapidSCAT launches in early August.



On a SpaceX Dragon and Falcon 9 no less. RapidSCAT will be attached to the Columbus module on the ISS, so we're only going to get to see things in a small radius as it orbits only 400 kilometers from the Earth's surface -- but we'll have significantly higher amounts of passes and we'll have a live view of the storm via HDEV as it passes over.

384 hours



young punk.....LOLOL
Quoting 52. LargoFl:

yes same here, thank you,this blog IN season is for tropical and severe weather and those of us who live IN the danger zones like to see what Might happen down the road a bit...gives time to prep if you havent done so already..and its part of the tropical experience.


Well, I'm sure no one 'preps' for a storm that doesn't currently exist, and which will very probably never materialise.
Well, I'm sure no one 'preps' for a storm that doesn't currently exist, and which will very probably never materialise.



whatchoo talkin bout willis??????........i'm already boarded up!
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUN 9 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Thunderstorm activity associated with a well-defined low pressure
system located about 150 miles south-southwest of Zihuatanejo,
Mexico, has continued to increase and become better organized
during the past several hours. Environmental conditions are
conducive for continued development, and this system will likely
become a tropical depression later this afternoon or tonight. The
low is expected to move generally west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph,
which will keep the strongest winds away from the coast of
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
Quoting 61. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Damn that's nasty!




Sar.. ricderr..

Here is a perfect example of what I was referring to. Are we actually to believe that a 979mb low will be off the coast of Louisiana on June 23? Perhaps, perhaps not.. but what we should be asking ourselves is what conditions are being predicted that would cause this to occur?

If I'm living in Louisiana, I'm not getting ready to "batten down the hatches" for a CAT 2 two Mondays from now. But I would keep an eye on conditions as they progress through the next two weeks to see if there is any validity to the model. Knowledge is power - we can remain in inquiry and build information to make informed decisions.
There is nothing wrong with posting long range models as long as you take them for what they are. The GFS is notorious for having convective feedback in its longer ranges and there is a reason we say that the CMC is bipolar with cyclogenesis. If you use them to look at a broader synoptic pattern then great, but if you take them to mean x will be here on y day then you are in for a long season. Treat each other with respect and respect the weather for what it is. This is science folks not Oprah.
I've kind of liked the variety of posters recently. The blog has been dominated by fun speculation and a lot fewer Captain Obvious pronouncements. I thought the idea was to have some fun--though you probably can't tell that from the tone of my posts.
Quoting LongIslandBeaches:


Sar.. ricderr..

Here is a perfect example of what I was referring to. Are we actually to believe that a 979mb low will be off the coast of Louisiana on June 23? Perhaps, perhaps not.. but what we should be asking ourselves is what conditions are being predicted that would cause this to occur?

If I'm living in Louisiana, I'm not getting ready to "batten down the hatches" for a CAT 2 two Mondays from now. But I would keep an eye on conditions as they progress through the next two weeks to see if there is any validity to the model. Knowledge is power - we can remain in inquiry and build information to make informed decisions.


I'd give it about a 1% chance at best that a system will be threatening the Gulf Coast on June 23.
If there is a storm on the 23rd, I like my crow well done.
Quoting 74. Michfan:

There is nothing wrong with posting long range models as long as you take them for what they are. The GFS is notorious for having convective feedback in its longer ranges and there is a reason we say that the CMC is bipolar with cyclogenesis. If you use them to look at a broader synoptic pattern then great, but if you take them to mean x will be here on y day then you are in for a long season. Treat each other with respect and respect the weather for what it is. This is science folks not Oprah.


With a bit of obsessive compulsive disorder, too.
Quoting 76. bappit:

I've kind of liked the variety of posters recently. The blog has been dominated by fun speculation and a lot fewer Captain Obvious pronouncements. I thought the idea was to have some fun--though you probably can't tell that from the tone of my posts.


No, we can't :)
So I have a question: if the models go haywire after running out to 300 hours or so, why do they run them that far? Not talking just about for predicting TC genesis.
Quoting 67. CybrTeddy:



On a SpaceX Dragon and Falcon 9 no less. RapidSCAT will be attached to the Columbus module on the ISS, so we're only going to get to see things in a small radius as it orbits only 400 kilometers from the Earth's surface -- but we'll have significantly higher amounts of passes and we'll have a live view of the storm via HDEV as it passes over.

Yeah, RapidSCAT is supposed to have an ever so slightly better resolution than QuikSCAT.

For those who have never seen QuikSCAT (it 'died' in 2009):

Sar.. ricderr..

Here is a perfect example of what I was referring to. Are we actually to believe that a 979mb low will be off the coast of Louisiana on June 23? Perhaps, perhaps not.. but what we should be asking ourselves is what conditions are being predicted that would cause this to occur?

If I'm living in Louisiana, I'm not getting ready to "batten down the hatches" for a CAT 2 two Mondays from now. But I would keep an eye on conditions as they progress through the next two weeks to see if there is any validity to the model. Knowledge is power - we can remain in inquiry and build information to make informed decisions.


LIB...i look at every long range model each morning.....but there's a big difference to my perspective of watching a model and treating it as if it's already valid
Quoting 44. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

right now

xx/xx/xx


Yep nice
Quoting 83. bappit:

So I have a question: if the models go haywire after running out to 300 hours or so, why do they run them that far? Not talking just about for predicting TC genesis.


Practice. It's all part of the evolution of computer prediction. They can look at why the computer predicted something, and why it failed to happen. In theory, the hindsight should be valuable for the refinement of future predictions.
Tut tut, looks like rain...
Quoting 40. GTstormChaserCaleb:

7 days



Yep nice

Quoting 84. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yeah, RapidSCAT is supposed to have an ever so slightly better resolution than QuikSCAT.

For those who have never seen QuikSCAT (it 'died' in 2009):



I miss QuikSCAT
Quoting 83. bappit:

So I have a question: if the models go haywire after running out to 300 hours or so, why do they run them that far? Not talking just about for predicting TC genesis.
for myself it gives one the certain location to look out for something that might form,and in a way it gives a hint..long term..where the model thinks it will go...yes long term and might very well change,but gives one something to look out for over time.
Quoting 86. wunderkidcayman:


Yep nice
don't say anything too jinx it
just watch wait and see
Quoting 82. hydrus:



Really WET
Quoting 61. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Damn that's nasty!


I wouldn't get hyped if I were you -_-.The GFS showed Dorian last year as a cat 3 borderline 4 going into Texas.It didn't happen.Don't expect this solution to either.
Quoting 91. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

don't say anything too jinx it
just watch wait and see

Ok as long as you don't do or say anything to jinx it
Quoting 95. wunderkidcayman:


Ok as long as you don't do or say anything to jinx it
never I always watch wait see
Speaking of ASCAT, it finally hit 94E two hours ago. Not that it was useful...lots of rain contaminated barbs.

Btw we did get an earthquake here on Sat evening around 7pm
It was interesting so far for the year we've gotten a few mag 4."" Shakes
Just noting as to 94E that patience is key when it comes to the tropics and what looks good one day can fizzle out the next day, and come back later 48 hours later.  I mentioned on Saturday morning (when 94E looked like it does today) that we might have a depression/storm by today, then the convection/low elongated yesterday, and it was being sheered as of this time yesterday, and now the system consolidated again overnight and right near TD status at the moment. 

24 hours can make a big difference in terms of cyclogenesis or the life of any given tropical storm, and usually (assuming that SST's are there), the two main factors that can fluctuate in a short period of time are sheer and surrounding dry air (that can become entrained in a system over the course of a day and interfere/retard  further development).  The same rules apply to the longer-term models.
Quoting 81. Grothar:




Got to love those possible genisis dots off in Kansas, Oklahoma and Missouri ;-p
Quoting 88. etxwx:

Tut tut, looks like rain...



a little over half an inch 20 miles NE of Austin so far. Today is my watering day so I'll take it :)
Quoting 81. Grothar:


Are those short black wiggling lines off of Africa..?
I'd give it about a .01% chance at best that a system will be threatening the Gulf Coast on June 23.
If there is a storm on the 23rd, I like my crow well done.


may i suggest one of our more creative recipes.....crow patties...dredged in flour and dipped into cornbread breadcrumbs...deep fried and topped with a bacon garnish....


Quoting DogtownMex:


Got to love those possible genisis dots off in Kansas, Oklahoma and Missouri ;-p


Yeah, those tropical systems formed in the Mississippi River.
Quoting 73. LongIslandBeaches:



Sar.. ricderr..

Here is a perfect example of what I was referring to. Are we actually to believe that a 979mb low will be off the coast of Louisiana on June 23? Perhaps, perhaps not.. but what we should be asking ourselves is what conditions are being predicted that would cause this to occur?

If I'm living in Louisiana, I'm not getting ready to "batten down the hatches" for a CAT 2 two Mondays from now. But I would keep an eye on conditions as they progress through the next two weeks to see if there is any validity to the model. Knowledge is power - we can remain in inquiry and build information to make informed decisions.


At 300 hrs, a meteorologist does neither, he simply laughs.
Quoting 98. wunderkidcayman:
Btw we did get an earthquake here on Sat evening around 7pm
It was interesting so far for the year we've gotten a few mag 4."" Shakes
Did you feel it ? I sure didn't.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


I'd give it about a .01% chance at best that a system will be threatening the Gulf Coast on June 23.
If there is a storm on the 23rd, I like my crow well done.


Climatology is at least a factor of 20 higher than .01%. .01% is 1 in 10000 June 23ds. A factor of 20 boosts this to 1 in 500 for a specific point on the LA coast. For the "Gulf Coast" (Brownsville to Apalachicola) multiply by another 10 at least.

Quoting ricderr:
I'd give it about a .01% chance at best that a system will be threatening the Gulf Coast on June 23.
If there is a storm on the 23rd, I like my crow well done.


may i suggest one of our more creative recipes.....crow patties...dredged in flour and dipped into cornbread breadcrumbs...deep fried and topped with a bacon garnish....




That looks good.
Quoting georgevandenberghe:


Climatology is at least a factor of 20 higher than .01%. .01% is 1 in 10000 June 23ds. A factor of 20 boosts this to 1 in 500 for a specific point on the LA coast. For the "Gulf Coast" (Brownsville to Apalachicola) multiply by another 10 at least.



.01 = 1% = 1/100
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


.01 = 1% = 1/100


EH ????
Quoting 105. Jedkins01:



At 300 hrs, a meteorologist does neither, he simply laughs.

Quoting pottery:


EH ????


Why?

.1 = 10% = 10/100

.01 = 1% = 1/100

Quoting 105. Jedkins01:



At 300 hrs, a meteorologist does neither, he simply laughs.


That's why they make the big bucks?
See I messed up and I should have said 1%.
I messed it up from the beginning by putting the % sign on .01.
100/100 = 100%
10/100 = 10%
1/100 = 1%
Quoting 109. Sfloridacat5:


.01 = 1% = 1/100


He is not saying .01 he is saying .01% and his math is correct.
Quoting pottery:
100/100 = 100%
10/100 = 10%
1/100 = 1%


Yes

and 1% as a decimal is .01
and 10% as a decimal is .1
and 100% as a decimal is 1.0
Quoting 105. Jedkins01:



At 300 hrs, a meteorologist does neither, he simply laughs.
Greetings Jed..I never say anything that would bring negativity to the blog, but the near constant comments about the long range models is an annoyance. We who have been here for years know how the models perform. Yes, there will be new members that will have questions about the models, and that is normal and expected. Some of us here do use the long range for large weather systems" The Bermuda High " is one for instance I use them for. The hemispheric patterns show up well on the long range models, letting one make there own possible forecasts on systems that are present or may form. This blog is founded on Tropical Weather, it is not about the computer models, but we use them, and should be able to post them without being scrutinized if it is 20 hours or 200. I hope some day we will see an end to this, and I could learn more about the models themselves, as opposed to who posted what model and for how long.
Quoting yonzabam:


Practice. It's all part of the evolution of computer prediction. They can look at why the computer predicted something, and why it failed to happen. In theory, the hindsight should be valuable for the refinement of future predictions.

I like that answer. FWIW I've asked this question before and so have others and this is the best response I've seen. Edit: Though I think hydrus just made a good point about some features being more predictable than others.

For the sake of example, I could see testing new data assimilation methods and seeing where the signal gets lost in the noise versus the existing method. Maybe you have to be sure to run a model well into the noise to get a good baseline.

I did see a pdf once that noted that in some situations things 10 days out are more predictable than things 3 days out are in other situations. Sorry I can't point at the source (at least I acknowledge that) though the topic was Relative Measure of Predictability (such as here). The write ups on using ensembles to estimate predictability are interesting. They talk about things like combining predictions from different models (like GFS and ECMWF).

It would be nice if Dr. M could get a blog on the status of ensembles and estimating predictability. He's mentioned spaghetti plots before.
But stay away from saying .01%, you need to leave off the % sign.
That is really .0001 as a decimal

That's 1/10000

It needs to be 1% or .01
They both mean 1/100
I wonder if that little blob at the tail of this TX front could become its own cut-off low.
300 hours out to people living in the US can be laughable to some but lets remember not everyone lives in the US..a 300 model run out for the people living in the islands for a wave coming off of Africa isnt laughable to them..try to put things in perspective and not think the tropical weather season applies to only to people living in the US..there is a whole lot of real estate for a cape verde wave to develop and become a monster before it threatens your world in the US..think on that..a real meterologist would know that..
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Yes

and 1% as a decimal is .01
and 10% as a decimal is .1
and 100% as a decimal is 1.0

True, that.

Overcast with light showers here today, enough to keep the humidity up and the ground damp.
Cracks in the yard are beginning to close up.Currently 88F with 66% H.
Quoting 118. hydrus:

Greetings Jed..I never say anything that would bring negativity to the blog, but the near constant comments about the long range models is an annoyance. We who have been here for years know how the models perform. Yes, there will be new members that will have questions about the models, and that is normal and expected. Some of us here do use the long range for large weather systems" The Bermuda High " is one for instance I use them for. The hemispheric patterns show up well on the long range models, letting one make there own possible forecasts on systems that are present or may form. This blog is founded on Tropical Weather, it is not about the computer models, but we use them, and should be able to post them without being scrutinized if it is 20 hours or 200. I hope some day we will see an end to this, and I could learn more about the models themselves, as opposed to who posted what model and for how long.
Hydrus I could careless how far the models go out that are on here.They do give me a good laugh...I just don't like it when people think that it's going to happen exactly the way the model says it's going to happen because it's not true.This past winter it was difficult to point out who was going to get snow and who wasn't until 2 days hell even sometimes the night before.The models did show that snow was possible and that the atmosphere supported it but it didn't play out the way the model said it would.Sometimes only 5 inches would fall vs the 20 that the model showed.
Percent to decimal - move decimal two places to the left and drop the percent sign.

90% = .9

Decimal to percent - move decimal two places to the right and add the percent sign.

.9 = 90%
Quoting 122. ncstorm:

300 hours out to people living in the US can be laughable to some but lets remember not everyone lives in the US..a 300 model run out for the people living in the islands for a wave coming off of Africa isnt laughable to them..try to put things in perspective and not think the tropical weather season applies to only to people living in the US..there is a whole lot of real estate for a cape verde wave to develop and become a monster before it threatens your world in the US..think on that..a real meterologist would know that..
If I were living in the islands and I would worry at the 192hr mark.Because sometimes the waves that the models show being "monsters" fizzle out and don't even materialize.
Quoting 118. hydrus:

Greetings Jed..I never say anything that would bring negativity to the blog, but the near constant comments about the long range models is an annoyance. We who have been here for years know how the models perform. Yes, there will be new members that will have questions about the models, and that is normal and expected. Some of us here do use the long range for large weather systems" The Bermuda High " is one for instance I use them for. The hemispheric patterns show up well on the long range models, letting one make there own possible forecasts on systems that are present or may form. This blog is founded on Tropical Weather, it is not about the computer models, but we use them, and should be able to post them without being scrutinized if it is 20 hours or 200. I hope some day we will see an end to this, and I could learn more about the models themselves, as opposed to who posted what model and for how long.


Imagine the uproar if they were to take the ensembles out to 30 days?




From presentation Production Suite Forward to 2020:

Part of Review of the NCEP Production Suite:
December 3 - 4, 2013
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUN 9 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Thunderstorm activity associated with a well-defined low pressure
system located about 150 miles south-southwest of Zihuatanejo,
Mexico, has continued to increase and become better organized
during the past several hours. Environmental conditions are
conducive for continued development, and this system will likely
become a tropical depression later this afternoon or tonight. The
low is expected to move generally west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph,
which will keep the strongest winds away from the coast of
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Quoting washingtonian115:
If I were living in the islands and I would worry at the 192hr mark.Because sometimes the waves that the models show being "monsters" fizzle out and don't even materialize.

Sometimes they do.
Sometimes they don't.

The thing is, that kind of long-term forecast is so usually inaccurate that I don't think anyone takes it on.

Still, it's good to at least have the ''possibility'' out there in the future.
People can then keep an eye on it.
Quoting 126. washingtonian115:

If I were living in the islands and I would worry at the 192hr mark.Because sometimes the waves that the models show being "monsters" fizzle out and don't even materialize.


true..I'm not saying every wave that comes off of Africa is a monster but according to some people here, the islands shouldnt be paying attention till three days out..and the past two seasons are when the waves have been fizzling out..that wasnt the case before then and whose to say this season will be the same..I say good luck on getting that charter plane off the islands for a Cat 5 because even in 3 days and with a large storm conditions wont be the best..I just dont like the fact that people are upset because someone is posting long range models..if you don't want to see it put the person on ignore instead of making a wacky doo about it..

If I can read through how a person rescued 40 people from a giant dam that burst back in 1961 then its not going to hurt anyone to see a long range model run posted..
Quoting 120. Sfloridacat5:

But stay away from saying .01%, you need to leave off the % sign.
That is really .0001 as a decimal

That's 1/10000

It needs to be 1% or .01
They both mean 1/100


big difference between .01% and 1 %

.01 % = 1/10000 1 % = 1/100
EP, 94, 2014060918, , BEST, 0, 154N, 1018W, 30, 1006, LO
Quoting 106. stormwatcherCI:

Did you feel it ? I sure didn't.

I originally thought it was me shaking at the time but when I check it wasn't it was the quake
Shake was very minuscule light hardly noticeable that's why I thought it was just me
Quoting ncstorm:


true..I'm not saying every wave that comes off of Africa is a monster but according to some people here, the islands shouldnt be paying attention till three days out..and the past two seasons are when the waves have been fizzling out..that wasnt the case before then and whose to say this season will be the same..I say good luck on getting that charter plane off the islands for a Cat 5 because even in 3 days and with a large storm conditions wont be the best..I just dont like the fact that people are upset because someone is posting long range models..if you don't want to see it put the person on ignore instead of making a wacky doo about it..

If I can read through how a person rescued 40 people from a giant dam that burst back in 1961 then its not going to hurt anyone to see a long range model run posted..


The models are relatively useless beyond five days in terms of guidance and whether or not a tropical cyclone will form, but beyond five days do serve a purpose in telling us whether or not the possibility that we'll see increased moisture, lower shear, pressure, etc., in a region in a few weeks. Basically it tells us where the hotspots might be, and the western Caribbean is definitely a place where we should be looking which is why I'm not totally blowing off the GFS idea of TC genesis as it's climatologically favored.
Quoting 129. pottery:


Sometimes they do.
Sometimes they don't.

The thing is, that kind of long-term forecast is so usually inaccurate that I don't think anyone takes it on.

Still, it's good to at least have the ''possibility'' out there in the future.
People can then keep an eye on it.
Well Pot I don't see how you guys can look out at the sat and see this coming near you


130. ncstorm
6:30 PM GMT on June 09, 2014

192hrs is when I start to get interested 5 days is when I start to prepare and 3 days I'm ready for it.This is what I do.I'm not sure about other people and what they do on the islands.
Today's model runs are more bullish than yesterday's with regards to Invest 94E's eventual peak intensity. The 12z GFS is forecasting a peak of 55kt, the 18z SHIPS is forecasting a peak of 71kt, and the LGEM is forecasting a peak of 56kt. Right now, I'm forecasting a peak of 60kt. With a strong CCKW traversing the East Pacific, we'll have to see if it can aid in some rapid intensification once 94E gets an inner core going. The 18z SHIPS is indicating a 64% chance of 25kt RI over the next day.

SAB just came in at T1.5/25kt and TAFB came in at T2.5/35kt. The 18z update is 30kt as a compromise. Expect Tropical Depression Three-E at 2pm PDT.


I have a new picture!! guess who this is??
Arctic Ocean ice area, which had been well below the record low year of 2012 for the first half of the year, has now met with the 2012 line. I don't think we're going to see a record year, but should be top 5.

Quoting washingtonian115:
Well Pot I don't see how you guys can look out at the sat and see this coming near you


130. ncstorm
6:30 PM GMT on June 09, 2014

192hrs is when I start to get interested 5 days is when I start to prepare and 3 days I'm ready for it.This is what I do.I'm not sure about other people and what they do on the islands.

Yeah, things like that tend to make me pay attention ! :):))
Quoting hurricanes2018:


I have a new picture!! guess who this is??

It's Grothar, before he evolved into a Biped.
Let me clarify something. I am not against long range models. I look at them every day. What I am against is when the model itself become the dominant point of discussion, almost to the exclusion of any other actual weather. Once again, this is just how I feel about the direction the blog has been taken. I don't expect everyone to agree with me.

What I do with models, however, is back test them. You can do this easily by using the loops available at NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center. Use the 7 day loop for the Unified Surface Analysis Product. This loop starts 7 days ago and ends with the latest update. I then compare the actual surface maps generated by the loop to the past 7 days of model runs, especially the GFS, the UKMET, and ECMWF. If the models have done a poor job of predicting what would happen from 7 days ago to the present, it's highly unlikely that their prediction for the next 7 (or 10, 14, or 16) days is going to be much better. If one of those models has done a good job of predicting the last 7 days, I look at the next 7 days with more interest. If two out of the three are in good agreement, then I really start to pay attention to the next 7 days. In those rare cases that all three models agree, there's a high percentage probability that the next 7 days are going to happen as forecast.

By using back testing, I don't have to get all involved where a supposed storm is going to hit unless the models have shown some skill. Depending on the level of skill and the forward time frame, that means anything from watching an area for signs of development to getting out the plywood. Except for the bloggers here who have a real understanding of tropical storms, particularly tropical storm genesis, I rarely see any evidence of back testing. What I do see is a lot of attempts at timelines between now and DOOM with not even a nod to how well the same model has done in the last week. That's simply noise and, when half the posts are noise, that's what I object to.
this is a perfect example of why a 300 hour model run would be useful for atmospheric conditions..just think if you only started paying attention 3 days out for impact?

1989 Hugo..
Sometimes they do.
Sometimes they don't.

The thing is, that kind of long-term forecast is so usually inaccurate that I don't think anyone takes it on
.


thanx for giving us an island perspective


As model suites go, the XTRP Ensembles are generally 100% reliable for at least the next 10 minutes.

145. xcool
I think w'e going see more home brew storm this year imo
Quoting 142. ncstorm:

this is a perfect example of why a 300 hour model run would be useful for atmospheric conditions..just think if you only started paying attention 3 days out for impact?

1989 Hugo..



I'm sorry, but the Soup of the Day is "Don't Trust Long Range Models"
Quoting 140. pottery:


It's Grothar, before he evolved into a Biped.


It's not easy being green!
Quoting 146. FBMinFL:



I'm sorry, but the Soup of the Day is "Don't Trust Long Range Models"


No soup for you!!

Quoting 121. redwagon:

I wonder if that little blob at the tail of this TX front could become its own cut-off low.


You'll have to wait until the 240 hour model comes out to be sure.
Quoting Grothar:


It's not easy being green!

I would have thought that with a face like that, being green was the least of your problems…..

I have to say, your current incarnation is a big improvement.
Quoting Grothar:


You'll have to wait until the 240 hour model comes out to be sure.


LOLOL, Nice !
Quoting ricderr:
Sometimes they do.
Sometimes they don't.

The thing is, that kind of long-term forecast is so usually inaccurate that I don't think anyone takes it on
.


thanx for giving us an island perspective



Well, with you taking out my last 2 sentences, I'm not sure how to read this….
I use the 240 hour model from 9 days ago to know exactly what will happen tomorrow.
It is 102 degrees here in Winter Park Florida O.o about 7 degrees hotter than anywhere around us (Confirmed myself)...bit odd.
Quoting 145. xcool:

I think w'e going see more home brew storm this year imo


hey, You hid all winter. You better have some of those good graphics this year, and I hope you found some new ones.
Over/Under first storm of the year.
July 15th?
Quoting FBMinFL:
I use the 240 hour model from 9 days ago to know exactly what will happen tomorrow.

Brilliant !
I think you may be on to something.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Over/Under first storm of the year.
July 15th?

July 10th for first Atlantic TS.
Major lightning storm here in S. Fort Myers.
December 31st 1 name storm



the water is warming up fast in GOM and the east coast


starting to look like a tropical storm to me.. I make it 100% now not 90%
Knoxville: Morristown WFO predicted 60% of rain. Batter up, swings... and a miss! Again! 10% chance would have been more accurate.

Is there such thing as a training WFO? If so, I wonder if Morristown is one of them? Or are they just incompetent?

Sorry, just venting... seems like they always forecast rain, and we always get missed. Getting pretty dry here.
Looking stormy on the continent.

ASCAT got a good pass of 94E earlier today:



Looking good too:



I was outside at the edge of the garage checking out the storm and a bolt came down and exploded right next to the house and made me jump back and I wiplashed my back. So I came back inside and now I have a sore back. Well next time I'll watch the storm from inside.

I'm just east of I75 just South of Fort Myers.

Well, with you taking out my last 2 sentences, I'm not sure how to read this….



it just means i missed cutting and pasting your last two lines...no conspiracy theory here :-)
Quoting 166. Sfloridacat5:

I was outside at the edge of the garage checking out the storm and a bolt came down and exploded right next to the house and made me jump back and I wiplashed my back. So I came back inside now with a sore back. Well next time I'll watch the storm from inside.

I'm just east of I75 just South of Fort Myers.





You lucky ******** Nothing that exciting ever happens in Scotland. We can go a whole year without hearing thunder. Grey skies and showers, that's about it here.
Quoting ricderr:
Well, with you taking out my last 2 sentences, I'm not sure how to read this….



it just means i missed cutting and pasting your last two lines...no conspiracy theory here :-)


LOL, OK, thanks.

Yard-work calls. Laters>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
170. xcool
Grothar :)
by 5pm we will have a new tropical d soon






I am right!!
172. FOREX
Mr. Grothar, will you be releasing a blob alert for the convection in the southern Caribbean near Panama?
Quoting yonzabam:



You lucky ******** Nothing that exciting ever happens in Scotland. We can go a whole year without hearing thunder. Grey skies and showers, that's about it here.


Storm is just sitting over my location with constant lightning and exploding thunder. The dog is running around the house looking for a place to hide.

Quoting 172. FOREX:

Mr. Grothar, will you be releasing a blob alert for the convection in the southern Caribbean near Panama?


Not yet. I am waiting for the 620 hour Euro before I decide.
175. FOREX
Quoting 174. Grothar:



Not yet. I am waiting for the 620 hour Euro before I decide.


lol. I needed that. I wish the Euro would see something already so we can go back to posting the 384 hour GFS.
The temps there are pretty close to each other there. In SF Bay Area today, we have a bit of a mix: 50 degree difference within 30 miles.

Not yet. I am waiting for the 620 hour Euro before I decide.



i need that one to help me decide whether i evacuate or not
Rain as it was moving into Fort Myers nbc2.
Quoting 178. Sfloridacat5:

Rain as it was moving into Fort Myers nbc2.


Good Lord that almost looks like a wedge tornado to the right
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014
200 PM PDT MON JUN 09 2014

...THIRD TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS SOUTHWEST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 102.0W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014
200 PM PDT MON JUN 09 2014

...THIRD TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS SOUTHWEST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 102.0W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT
AND IT COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014
200 PM PDT MON JUN 09 2014

Deep convection associated with an area of low pressure to the
southwest of Mexico has become much better organized during the
past 12 hours, and 1554 UTC and 1640 UTC ASCAT-B and ASCAT-A
overpasses, respectively, indicated that the system had
uncontaminated surface winds of 30-32 kt in the northeast quadrant.
Therefore, advisories are being initiated on the third tropical
depression of the eastern North Pacific season. The initial
intensity is set at 30 kt based on the ASCAT data and satellite
estimates of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and T1.5/25 kt from SAB.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 270/04 kt, based
primarily on microwave satellite data and ASCAT wind data. The
cyclone is expected to remain south of a deep-layer subtropical
ridge that extends westward from northern Mexico to Baja California
and into the eastern Pacific. The global and regional models are in
excellent agreement on a westward to west-northwestward motion
throughout the forecast period, and the official forecast track is
similar to but slightly faster the consensus model TVCE.

Although the cloud structure of the depression has improved markedly
in visible imagery since this morning, several microwave images
indicate that the low-level and mid-level circulations are not yet
juxtaposed. Furthermore, ASCAT wind data suggest that the low-level
circulation is slightly elongated east-west, and a pronounced dry
slot coming off of the mountains of Mexico is also evident in
visible and microwave satellite data in the western semicircle. As a
result, only gradual rather than rapid strengthening is forecast for
the next 24-48 hours while the cyclone remains over warm water
and in a low environmental wind shear. By 96 hours, cooler SSTs less
than 26C, increasing southwesterly shear, and drier mid-level air
are expected to produce steady weakening. The official intensity
forecast is similar to the intensity consensus model ICON.

Given the forecast track and size of the tropical cyclone, the
Government of Mexico does not anticipate the need for any watches or
warnings along the coast of Mexico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 15.4N 102.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 15.5N 102.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 15.6N 103.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 15.7N 105.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 15.9N 106.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 16.6N 109.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 17.6N 112.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 14/1800Z 18.7N 114.3W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

\

here we go!!! we have something to watch!!
Good to see we have our next TD in the EPAC. I think intensity forecasts will go up a little bit as it develops though.
The temps there are pretty close to each other there. In SF Bay Area today, we have a bit of a mix: 50 degree difference within 30 miles.


you have to love the temp ranges there...i used to live right near the water...but worked in pacheco (concord)...i could leave work at 5 with temps near 100....drive towards oakland and see the fog on the mountain at the caldecot tunnel....get home and the temp would be in the mid 50's....so the next morning when the guys were complaining about sleeping in the heat i'd mention i had a fire in the fireplace
Quoting 164. westscotweather:

Looking stormy on the continent.




Can tell you - yes! Not in my place near Frankfurt in scorching heat but a bit more to the north(west) several very severy storms today and still ongoing.

Here those monsters developing during the day (saved animation).


MCS an hour ago in last daylight in northwestern Germany with overshooting cloudtops. The ice shield of this storm reached out to my place (Mainz) 180km/111miles away!


Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Mon 09 Jun 2014 20:00 to Mon 09 Jun 2014 23:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 09 Jun 2014 20:02
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER / PUCIK
An ongoing bow echo with a history of producing extreme severe wind gusts (>32 m/s) and likely an embedded supercell structure continues to move NEward across W Germany. 10-15 m/s low-level shear ahead of the system and low LCL heights suggest that the system will continue to harbour a risk of embedded - possibly strong - tornadoes in addition to the severe wind threat. The system will likely continue for at least several hours as the airmass ahead remains very unstable per sfc obs and NWP guidance.




Real time lightning Europe.





Guess there will be a lot more spectacular videos available later.
As I just got home from a birthday party I have to look around for a while to get the latest news ...
187. FOREX
Quoting 185. ricderr:

The temps there are pretty close to each other there. In SF Bay Area today, we have a bit of a mix: 50 degree difference within 30 miles.


you have to love the temp ranges there...i used to live right near the water...but worked in pacheco (concord)...i could leave work at 5 with temps near 100....drive towards oakland and see the fog on the mountain at the caldecot tunnel....get home and the temp would be in the mid 50's....so the next morning when the guys were complaining about sleeping in the heat i'd mention i had a fire in the fireplace


Same thing when I lived in Burbank it would be 105 degrees, then a 45 minute drive to the coast and it was 65 and foggy. Water was freezing of course.
Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 1:49 PM PDT on June 09, 2014
Clear
87.1 °F
Clear
Humidity: 42%
Dew Point: 61 °F
Wind: 16.0 mph from the West
Wind Gust: 19.0 mph
Pressure: 29.77 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 87 °F

Got 87.1 here. The forecast was 97 but they reeled it back to 95F
Will have to wait a bit to see how far up it goes. How is your temp Ric?
189. SLU


Looks rather tight for just a TD.
Quoting SLU:


Looks rather tight for just a TD.


Already starting to get that "look" that it might want to try something.

Source Unwetternetzwerk.de.


Current warnings (saved image).

All the trains and several other public services in this part of Germany (Nordrhein-Westfalen) are shut down.
Quoting 187. FOREX:



Same thing when I lived in Burbank it would be 105 degrees, then a 45 minute drive to the coast and it was 65 and foggy. Water was freezing of course.


When did you live in Burbank? I lived there for a few(sic) years.....
193. FOREX
Quoting 190. CybrTeddy:



Already starting to get that "look" that it might want to try something.


I wish it would jump over to the Caribbean.
Quoting 193. FOREX:



I wish it would jump over to the Caribbean.


They sometimes jump
Quoting 194. K8eCane:



They sometimes jump


But probly not that far although i did see one jump over western cuba one night
196. FOREX
18Z GFS should be operative in 15 minutes.
TD3E as expected
I think this TD will make a run for Major cane

Litte animated gif (a bit bumpy, sorry) I've created from screenshots two hours earlier, showing the shelf cloud of this massive system arriving in Dortmund as shown in a webcam.

Guess we have to wait until tomorrow to get a picture of the damage this and other systems had done in France, BENELUX and Germany today. Unusual strong systems, anyway.
Over 17,000 acres are on fire in Broward County Florida. Most of the day it was a heavy smog and breathing was difficult.


200. FOREX
Quoting 197. wunderkidcayman:

TD3E as expected
I think this TD will make a run for Major cane


Agree. Looks impressive on visible already.
Actually have a lower dew pt than Ped here in S C IL, that's a rarity! Probably not much longer though, as storms begin to rotate up from low to our SW. 74 w/ 52 dew pt (46% RH), E-ESE wind 4-6 mph w/ 17 gust, 29.86"

Crazy, eh? This was in Essen/Germany this evening. Caption says the tree on the right side didn't make it and is now in neighbours Garden.
Unfortunately a first death is now reported.
Quoting 138. yonzabam:

Arctic Ocean ice area, which had been well below the record low year of 2012 for the first half of the year, has now met with the 2012 line. I don't think we're going to see a record year, but should be top 5.



Just based on that? No. And based on recent years, top 5 isn't saying much, is it?

Trend lines don't diverge much until about August 1.

Based on current conditions in the Arctic, this year may, or may not, be a contender for a new record.
A rainy weekend with 2.3" Friday night to early Saturday morning and 0.2" on Sunday evening. Seasonably hot and humid today with dew points in the low 70s and temperatures ranging from 72 to 93.
A violent lightning strike in Hillsborough County led to an intense fire at an apartment complex that has burned very quick leading to the whole apartment building at a complete loss.
Quoting 205. Jedkins01:

A violent lightning strike in Hillsborough County led to an intense fire at an apartment complex that has burned very quick leading to the whole apartment building at a complete loss.


OMG That's horrible!
Does anyone else think that we already have tropical storm Cristina?
Although they are just about NEVER accurate, the long range gfs runs are interesting to watch and fantasize about. I notice that the gfs has been banking on that future POTENTIAL system making that left turn to Texas as a strong tropical storm or hurricane.

This of course will probably NOT pan out. I am just saying that it is interesting to watch. Like movies. 
So you can even just pretend that this comment never even existed and continue on your merry, weathery ways ;)
Quoting 207. Stormlover16:

Does anyone else think that we already have tropical storm Cristina?


I do. Glad it's moving away from from me and no threat to land. I'm thinking RI over the next 24 hrs with light shear and steamy ocean temps.
There have been some water rescues due to the heavy rains here in PA. Nobody has been seriously hurt or anything, just stuck and needed help. Too much rain falling in the same places over and over
Quoting 206. Stormlover16:



OMG That's horrible!


Thankfully no deaths or injuries though. Buildings catching fire from lightning more often than one might think around here.

Today hasn't been a really bad day for thunderstorms, so it does come as some surprise though. Usually we get reports of building damage and power outages from more violent thunderstorm days.
"The GFS model predicts that about 8 - 11 days from now the upper level winds over the Western Caribbean will relax and low-level moisture will build, potentially allowing a tropical disturbance with heavy rains to develop there."

So Dr. M looks at the models 240 hours out, but he's just looking at boring stuff.
Quoting 202. barbamz:


Crazy, eh? This was in Essen/Germany this evening. Caption says the tree on the right side didn't make it and is now in neighbours Garden.
Unfortunately a first death is now reported.
Germany storm you are disqualified. Tests of the rain water showed positive for performance enhancing drugs. Therefore your max wind speeds are irrelevant. 




In all seriousness though, it is very unfortunate for the person or anybody that dies in these events, and for the families that lose their loved ones.
215. FOREX
No low through 8 days on 18Z GFS.
Quoting 214. Tornado6042008X:

Germany storm you are disqualified. Tests of the rain water showed positive for performance enhancing drugs. Therefore your max wind speeds are irrelevant.%uFFFD




In all seriousness though, it is very unfortunate for the person or anybody that dies in these events, and for the families that lose their loved ones.


Whole weather world wide is said to be on steroids, you know ;-)


Unusual Deep purple warnings for the northwest (saved image). Utter chaos in those regions affected, according to German weather blogs. And this stuff should go on and increase the next two days.
Warnings for Frankfurt (near my place Mainz) too now. But I only could spot clouds with lightnings to my east for now.
Good afternoon/evening. I just posted a blog on 3-E if you're interested in reading it. Despite its seemingly healthy appearance, it does have some problems to contend with, most notably the dry air it has ingested. I'm going with 70mph for a peak intensity.

Link

storms coming in west tenn. alot of thunder
Quoting 215. FOREX:

No low through 8 days on 18Z GFS.


But on the 10th day cometh

220. FOREX
Quoting 215. FOREX:

No low through 8 days on 18Z GFS.


Finally a low at day 11. Getting ridiculous.
The GFS continues to show a tropical wave moving WNW across the Windwards/Leewards/PR and Virgin Islands late this week into early next.

Nice.
Quoting spbloom:

Just based on that? No. And based on recent years, top 5 isn't saying much, is it?

Trend lines don't diverge much until about August 1.

Based on current conditions in the Arctic, this year may, or may not, be a contender for a new record.


And which August will Santa have to swim as the entire circle 89N and poleward melts out??
Quoting 216. barbamz:



Whole weather world wide is said to be on steroids, you know ;-)


Unusual Deep purple warnings for the northwest (saved image). Utter chaos in those regions affected, according to German weather blogs. And this stuff should go on and increase the next two days.
Warnings for Frankfurt (near my place Mainz) too now. But I only could spot clouds with lightnings to my east for now.


I've always wanted to say this but thank you for all your posts on European weather. I have learned much about your guys' system for tracking weather and storms. In the past, I would hear about storms impacting Europe and I would always wonder how you guys deal with them and how you warn for them and all that. Very interesting stuff :)
Quoting FOREX:
Mr. Grothar, will you be releasing a blob alert for the convection in the southern Caribbean near Panama?


Are we naming blobs also?

Also considering that intensity is a continuous function, perhaps we should make the Saffir Simpson scale continuous. (and so the E storm this year will be a catagory 3.652237 at peak)

Just kidding!!!!
Quoting 219. Abacosurf:



But on the 10th day cometh





But days 1 through 5, thou shalt not have any tropical lows in the Atlantic basin, for the wunderbloggers must be punished for their blogging wickedness in the continuous display of model runs beyond 200 hr, it is an abomination, and must be punished lest the young bloggers be tainted with such wickedness. The weather gods will assuredly punish the offenders.

Their punishment shall be continued teasing, while the faithful and keepers of the blog rules shall be rewarded with tropical cyclones abound, but they must endure through the end to reap the fruit of patience.
Quoting ricderr:
The temps there are pretty close to each other there. In SF Bay Area today, we have a bit of a mix: 50 degree difference within 30 miles.


you have to love the temp ranges there...i used to live right near the water...but worked in pacheco (concord)...i could leave work at 5 with temps near 100....drive towards oakland and see the fog on the mountain at the caldecot tunnel....get home and the temp would be in the mid 50's....so the next morning when the guys were complaining about sleeping in the heat i'd mention i had a fire in the fireplace


I remember traveling on business to Oakland in August 2002. I knew what I was in for and packed sweaters but it still felt odd to step into full August sun with temps in the upper 50s at sea level. Coming from ten days of 90+ in DC it felt very very good.


SW Caribbean looking a bit interesting for this time of year, might become an AOI in a few days.
From the Miami NWS Disco...

THE MAIN STORY TODAY CONTINUES TO BE SMOKE DUE TO AN ONGOING
WILDFIRE IN NORTH CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY. SMOKE LINGERS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY THE BROWARD METRO AREAS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS AREA AS
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FORMS ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. SMOKE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A PROBLEM AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AS A NOCTURNAL INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO SET UP
AGAIN. THEREFORE KEPT PATCHY TO AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.

OTHERWISE A TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE REGIME IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDWEEK. LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTS. THIS COMBINED WITH DIURNAL
HEATING AND MODEST INSTABILITY WILL YIELD AFTERNOON CONVECTION
EACH DAY. AN H5 TROUGH IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DIG DOWN ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH SHOULD FURTHER ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSITY.

THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY BUT
SHOULD STILL BE A PLAYER IN THE WEATHER FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THERE
APPEARS TO BE BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS WITH REGARD TO THE
AMPLITUDE OF TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE COLDEST MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
ARE DEPICTED BY THE GFS SOLUTION SHOWING VALUES IN THE -9C TO -11C
RANGE. YET ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND KEEPING THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA IN THE MOST
FAVORABLE AREA FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOME OF THESE COULD
BE STRONG DEPENDING ON THE FINAL TRACK OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

For West Palm Beach...

Quoting 223. Doppler22:


I've always wanted to say this but thank you for all your posts on European weather. I have learned much about your guys' system for tracking weather and storms. In the past, I would hear about storms impacting Europe and I would always wonder how you guys deal with them and how you warn for them and all that. Very interesting stuff :)


Thanks Doppler :-) I'll try to "educate" you (with the help of other fellow Europeans) as long as there isn't a Cat 5 threatening FL, lol. While the current blog title is: "Quiet in the Atlantic; 94E in Eastern Pacific Not a Threat to Land" I thought I could do this. Good night everybody. Wish us luck the next two days. And all the best for you as well!



Edit: Our European weather muscles aren't shy of US muscles, lol.

Pic of very recent hail in Paris:


Source.
Extremely boring, extremely hazy :/

231. FOREX
Quoting 227. stormpetrol:



SW Caribbean looking a bit interesting for this time of year, might become an AOI in a few days.


I hope so, but shear is very high right now. We can only hope though.
Quoting 221. CaribBoy:

The GFS continues to show a tropical wave moving WNW across the Windwards/Leewards/PR and Virgin Islands late this week into early next.

Nice.
A very weak dry wave ;)
heavy rain and wind around nw tenn.
03E...

Quoting 221. CaribBoy:

The GFS continues to show a tropical wave moving WNW across the Windwards/Leewards/PR and Virgin Islands late this week into early next.

Nice.
Quoting 232. Gearsts:

A very weak dry wave ;)


Lol, yes... but it's better than the boring hazy weather we had today, yesterday, the day before yesterday, the day before the day before yesterday........... OMG I hate the SAL!
I think Tenn. is having Florida's raining season.
Quoting 234. GeoffreyWPB:

03E...


RI
i think Tenn. is having Florida's raining season.
Building a core @ 30 knots...

Not bad

I think that we already have Cristina. I hate this name, is my teacher. hahahahaha =(
03E
Quoting 227. stormpetrol:



SW Caribbean looking a bit interesting for this time of year, might become an AOI in a few days.

Agreed
I say TD3E is now a TS maybe 45/55mph
NOAA retires NOAA-16 polar satellite


Not mentioned in the article, seems it was having issues
96.something here in Fallon, giant mounds of cumulus off to the southeast.

(While looking up Reno radar, I found this website. Deep sea caverns from Monterey to Hawthorne? I love conspiracy theories.)

Maybe we'll get another burst of wind tonight? Plenty of stuff out by Hawthorn, which is just the other side of Walker Lake. A few drops of rain would be nice.
Quoting 219. Abacosurf:



But on the 10th day cometh




Yawn ... Call me when it's still there this time next week. Too far out to get interested in ...
Good evening WU, TD03E is already a well organized system with convective banding present in all four quadrants thus this system looks based only on satellite to be a 50-60 mph storm at the moment. Tonight/Next morning could invoke some rapid deepening. As for the Atlantic the active monsoonal jet could spark thunderstorm growth and tropical development by the third week of June. As the subtropical jet lifts north and weakens allow upper ridging to replace it. Still plenty of time to watch it
Quoting 248. nonblanche:



(While looking up Reno radar, I found this website. Deep sea caverns from Monterey to Hawthorne? I love conspiracy theories.)


No need for water to have a Naval training center -- there's a Naval Surface Warfare Training Center alongside I-95 in New Jersey that is a building shaped like the bridge of a large warship. No where near navigable water.
It could happen, but I'm not at all sold on RI by 3-E. Any attempt it makes at forming a core right now will likely be interrupted by dry air intrusion. Maybe an upgrade to TS status at the next advisory but recent satellite estimates really don't even support that.



09/2345 UTC 15.5N 102.0W T2.0/2.0 03E -- East Pacific
Quoting 252. MAweatherboy1:

It could happen, but I'm not at all sold on RI by 3-E. Any attempt it makes at forming a core right now will likely be interrupted by dry air intrusion. Maybe an upgrade to TS status at the next advisory but recent satellite estimates really don't even support that.



09/2345 UTC 15.5N 102.0W T2.0/2.0 03E -- East Pacific


Dry air intrusion certainly isn't helping the system any, but I've seen waaaayyyyy worse looking tropical storms named in the past. It's come a long way in the past 24 hours.
Quoting 238. Gearsts:

RI


Very impressive Tropical cyclone, i think it may make major hurricane status.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
It could happen, but I'm not at all sold on RI by 3-E. Any attempt it makes at forming a core right now will likely be interrupted by dry air intrusion. Maybe an upgrade to TS status at the next advisory but recent satellite estimates really don't even support that.



09/2345 UTC 15.5N 102.0W T2.0/2.0 03E -- East Pacific

SAB is being too conservative with this storm; it was a T# lower than TAFB at 11z. I'd agree with others that this is at least 45kt.
Itstheendoftheworldasweknowit............and I feel fine!
Good evening class!
ATCF goes up to TS.

EP, 03, 2014061000, , BEST, 0, 155N, 1019W, 35, 1004, TS
Quoting 259. Tropicsweatherpr:

ATCF goes up to TS.

EP, 03, 2014061000, , BEST, 0, 155N, 1019W, 35, 1004, TS
Hmmmmm, looks like 94E is waning a bit to me......just eyeing it on satellite....but they are the experts.
Quoting 260. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Hmmmmm, looks like 94E is waning a bit to me......just eyeing it on satellite....but they are the experts.





its not 94E any more all so it has a name now
Quoting 258. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Good evening class!

Good evening Mr. Joe!
Q: Geoff



I've been looking for signs our TX front might spin off a cut-off low, you never know.
Be nice if it bounced right back at us.
Quoting 242. pablosyn:

I think that we already have Cristina. I hate this name, is my teacher. hahahahaha =(
Lol Cristina is not popular anymore I haven't met someone named cristina in terms for young people I have met though old people with this name and are nice.:D the names vary by generations I believe.
Quoting 227. stormpetrol:



SW Caribbean looking a bit interesting for this time of year, might become an AOI in a few days.
She is looking amazing for being a 40mph storm.should be 60mph imo.
264....It would be nice, but I don't think it's going to happen. Give it time my friend.
Quoting 262. Ameister12:


Good evening Mr. Joe!



Good evening yourself!
Quoting 264. redwagon:

Q: Geoff



I've been looking for signs our TX front might spin off a cut-off low, you never know.
Be nice if it bounced right back at us.


Please do and retrograde it to Sooo Cal.....I hope we have a strong monsoon in the mountains this year.....this drought is bad news! It's why I hope for a strong El Nino to form...
Please my dears. Do not bring up the name Cristina. I love you all! Joan

The large "Alligator" Wildfire (near 20,000 acres!) is located just west of U.S. 27 and north of I-75
Unfortunately, the Florida Forestry Service informed us that the heaviest rainfall today missed this wildfire, so it will continue emitting smoke. Light offshore winds will likely spread smoke back into portions of the east coast metropolitan areas overnight. Visibility Restrictions,possibly to 1/4 mi or less over night!
Quoting 269. GeoffreyWPB:

Please my dears. Do not bring up the name Cristina. I love you all! Joan





Cristina
272. beell
Thought this was interesting. I'm late to the party so it may have already been mentioned.

...a pronounced dry slot coming off of the mountains of Mexico is also evident in
visible and microwave satellite data in the western semicircle...



06/10 0045Z
Quoting 268. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Please do and retrograde it to Sooo Cal.....I hope we have a strong monsoon in the mountains this year.....this drought is bad news! It's why I hope for a strong El Nino to form...


Report as of today still looking good for El Niño. 70% now and 80-90% by Fall and Winter.
high wind shear Caribbean Sea is still closed for any thing two fourm but wind shear is vary low in the gulf so there for the gulf is now open for any thing two fourm




Quoting 270. SFLWeatherman:

The large "Alligator" Wildfire (near 20,000 acres!) is located just west of U.S. 27 and north of I-75
Unfortunately, the Florida Forestry Service informed us that the heaviest rainfall today missed this wildfire, so it will continue emitting smoke. Light offshore winds will likely spread smoke back into portions of the east coast metropolitan areas overnight. Visibility Restrictions,possibly to 1/4 mi or less over night!


Take a look at the moon tonight. It was red-orange last night.
Quoting 266. GeoffreyWPB:

264....It would be nice, but I don't think it's going to happen. Give it time my friend.


I tell ya, that Heartland low MSC developing everyday for 6 days is just weird. I love it, but I've never seen
this before.
Quoting 272. beell:

Thought this was interesting. I'm late to the party so it may have already been mentioned.

...a pronounced dry slot coming off of the mountains of Mexico is also evident in
visible and microwave satellite data in the western semicircle...



06/10 0045Z

That image really highlights how exceptionally well-organized its structure is. Beautiful banding except to the northeast. Outflow looks good in 3/4 quadrants, with the northwest quadrant still lacking but improving.

Dry air from Mexico should become less of an issue over the next day. Of course, it has drier air to its west to contend with, but with the storm embedded within a pouch of very high precipitable water, it shouldn't matter much until shear increases. We've seen systems intensify time and time again despite a less-than-saturated environment.
279. etxwx
Some evening reading...

Game camera catches spill by oil truck
SAN ANTONIO — The mystery of a truck spill that closed two roads in March may have been solved — by a game camera.

2 states sign deal with Duke for river cleanup
RALEIGH, N.C. — Environmental and wildlife officials in North Carolina and Virginia signed an agreement with Duke Energy Monday for the cleanup of toxic coal ash from the Dan River, which flows through the two states.

US energy security reaches highest level in a quarter century
by Simone Sebastian via Fuelfix
Excerpt: HOUSTON — The United States produced enough energy to satisfy 84 percent of its needs in 2013, a rapid climb from its historic low in 2005, according to a report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. More than three-quarters of energy produced in the United States in 2013 was fossil fuel, with natural gas leading the pack for the third consecutive year. About 11 percent of production was renewable energy and 10 percent was nuclear power. While the shale boom caused oil and gas production to soar, renewable energy has grown even faster. Measured by energy content, domestically produced oil and natural gas grew 38 percent from 2005 to 2013. Renewable energy — though a much smaller portion of the nation’s energy portfolio — jumped 49 percent during that period, led by a surge in new wind power and a more modest jump in solar.

The portfolio of energy consumed in the United States was slightly less diverse. Fossil fuels fed 82 percent of U.S. energy needs last year, followed by renewables (10 percent) and nuclear (8 percent). The nation is only slightly less dependent on fossil fuels than it was in 2005, when they represented 85 percent of the energy consumed. But the nation’s focus on cleaning up its energy portfolio is evident. Since 2005, coal consumption has fallen 21 percent while use of the cleaner-burning fossil fuel natural gas rose 18 percent. Renewable energy use climbed 49 percent during that time.
281. beell
Quoting 278. TropicalAnalystwx13:


That image really highlights how exceptionally well-organized its structure is. Beautiful banding except to the northeast. Outflow looks good in 3/4 quadrants, with the northwest quadrant still lacking but improving.

Dry air from Mexico should become less of an issue over the next day. Of course, it has drier air to its west to contend with, but with the storm embedded within a pouch of very high precipitable water, it shouldn't matter much until shear increases. We've seen systems intensify time and time again despite a less-than-saturated environment.


I guess we'll see, TA.I always thought dry air would cause this system to struggle in reaching its full potential. No issues in reaching TS staus soon but RI may not be attainable, lol. It is currently firing some convection over the center at least. True enough, a westward track should slowly reduce the influence of the dry slot and it may be able to wall itself off from the dry air and build a thick core. IR paints a slightly less vigorous system than vapor might indicate at present. I'll sit on the fence a bit longer!

Anyway, it's the only game in this part of town!


Quoting 278. TropicalAnalystwx13:


That image really highlights how exceptionally well-organized its structure is. Beautiful banding except to the northeast. Outflow looks good in 3/4 quadrants, with the northwest quadrant still lacking but improving.

Dry air from Mexico should become less of an issue over the next day. Of course, it has drier air to its west to contend with, but with the storm embedded within a pouch of very high precipitable water, it shouldn't matter much until shear increases. We've seen systems intensify time and time again despite a less-than-saturated environment.


Do you think it could become another Major Hurricane?
Quoting 278. TropicalAnalystwx13:


That image really highlights how exceptionally well-organized its structure is. Beautiful banding except to the northeast. Outflow looks good in 3/4 quadrants, with the northwest quadrant still lacking but improving.

Dry air from Mexico should become less of an issue over the next day. Of course, it has drier air to its west to contend with, but with the storm embedded within a pouch of very high precipitable water, it shouldn't matter much until shear increases. We've seen systems intensify time and time again despite a less-than-saturated environment.


Are you going to do a blog post tonight, Cody?
CIMSS is already listing Cristina as a TS.

285. etxwx
We had an inch of rain from the line that come through this part of Jasper Co. TX this afternoon - and the hay was baled just in time. Phew!
Unfortunately, according to the local news, it sounded like the rain missed AtHomeInTexas to the south. Looks like another line forming for round two. Keeping my fingers crossed for ya, AtHome!
I am pretty sure dry air will be the main cause of Cristina's demise.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/e pac/anim/latest72hrs.gif

Shear is at <5 knots ahead of the storm, and decreasing.
287. beell
Still a bit of elongation WSW/ENE this evening.
Please don't shoot me. A nowcast only.
Quoting 282. winter123:



Do you think it could become another Major Hurricane?

Probably not, but stranger things have happened.

Quoting 283. Astrometeor:



Are you going to do a blog post tonight, Cody?

Yes, I'm waiting for the 3z NHC update.

Quoting 281. beell:



I guess we'll see, TA.I always thought dry air would cause this system to struggle in reaching its full potential. No issues in reaching TS staus soon but RI may not be attainable, lol. It is currently firing some convection over the center at least. True enough, a westward track should slowly reduce the influence of the dry slot and it may be able to wall itself off from the dry air and build a thick core. IR paints a slightly less vigorous system than vapor might indicate at present. I'll sit on the fence a bit longer!

Anyway, it's the only game in this part of town!




That we will. ;)

I'm always worried when I disagree with you because, although I end up right occasionally, you're usually the winner!
Quoting 273. VAstorms:



Report as of today still looking good for El Nio. 70% now and 80-90% by Fall and Winter.
Waiting to see if the forecast winds come to fruition to push the next batch of hot West Pacific water east to reinforce the first? Kelvin wave. It might mean the difference between a weak/moderate El Nino and strong/very strong one. Play the waiting game is all we can do.

290. silas
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
It could happen, but I'm not at all sold on RI by 3-E. Any attempt it makes at forming a core right now will likely be interrupted by dry air intrusion. Maybe an upgrade to TS status at the next advisory but recent satellite estimates really don't even support that.



09/2345 UTC 15.5N 102.0W T2.0/2.0 03E -- East Pacific


Looks to me like it may be pulling a Dorien.
Good evening all.

A new Monster Wave just approaching the African coast, but preceded by what looks to be a new Mega Burst of SAL just North of it.

Nothing else going on in the Atlantic.
293. FOREX
Quoting 292. KoritheMan:

Just finished a blog on 3-E. If you wanna read it, you're more than welcome.


Very interesting and imformative. Thank you. You write really well.
295. beell
Quoting 288. TropicalAnalystwx13:


.


That we will. ;)

I'm always worried when I disagree with you because, although I end up right occasionally, you're usually the winner!


Geez, TA. I almost hope my open-ended wishy-washy post ends up being wrong (almost, lol)!

Truth be known, fwiw, sometimes many times I don't post anything useful about something because you already have it "rightly covered" in my estimation. So you're already a winner even if you didn't know you were playing!
Still don't really agree with the cyclone being a tropical storm now, the TAFB classification notwithstanding. It's one of those gray areas.
298. beell
Am I gonna be first with this?

TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014
800 PM PDT MON JUN 09 2014

Although the intensity of the deep convection has not changed
significantly during the last several hours, the cyclone has better
defined features with thunderstorms consolidating near the center
and fragmented bands to the east and west of the center. The
initial intensity estimate is 35 kt, based on a Dvorak
classification from TAFB, making the cyclone Tropical Storm
Cristina.

Cristina has a few days to gain additional strength while the
environmental factors remain generally favorable, and the models are
in fairly good agreement in showing Cristina being at or near
hurricane strength in 36 to 48 hours. Beyond a few days, the system
is expected to move into a drier airmass with stronger southwesterly
shear, and over marginal sea surface temperatures. These conditions
should end the strengthening phase, and ultimately cause Cristina to
weaken. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows the intensity
consensus model IVCN for the first 3 days of the forecast period,
and then lies lower than consensus closer to the LGEM guidance at
days 4 and 5 when environmental conditions are expected to become
more hostile.

The storm had been drifting northwestward most of the day, but the
latest satellite images suggest that Cristina is likely now
moving slowly westward. This westward turn is in response to a
building mid-level ridge to the northwest of the storm, and that
feature should keep Cristina on a westward to west-northwestward
path away from the coast of Mexico during the next several days.
The NHC track forecast is close to the previous one in the short
term, and then is nudged northward trending toward the latest
guidance.

Given the forecast track and size of the tropical cyclone, the
Government of Mexico does not anticipate the need for any watches or
warnings along the coast of Mexico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 15.5N 102.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 15.5N 102.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 15.5N 104.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 15.6N 105.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 16.0N 106.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 17.0N 109.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 14/0000Z 18.1N 111.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 15/0000Z 19.0N 113.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Weird day. Two hours ago it was 100F. Now? 77.
Hey I did a quick impromptu update on my blog too :D...feel free to come into my world and take a look.

2014 Hurricane Season

Quoting 300. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Hey I did a quick impromptu update on my blog too :D...feel free to come into my world and take a look.

2014 Hurricane Season
I don't want to. Go away.

j/k. I'll look. :P
Interesting article:

Link

Apparently there is gender discrimination with hurricanes?
Quoting 299. TimSoCal:

Weird day. Two hours ago it was 100F. Now? 77.


Almost the same at my place.....
Sunshine Summit, CA (SSSSD)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Mon, 09 Jun 8:15 pm (PDT)
Most Recent Observation: Mon, 09 Jun 8:00 pm PDT (PDT)
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
09 Jun 8:00 pm PDT 77 53 43 W 4G08 OK
09 Jun 7:50 pm PDT 78 52 41 WNW 7G12 OK
09 Jun 7:40 pm PDT 80 49 34 NW 8G14 OK
09 Jun 7:30 pm PDT 83 47 28 WNW 7G13 OK
09 Jun 7:20 pm PDT 84 41 22 NW 7G10 OK
09 Jun 7:10 pm PDT 85 41 21 WNW 6G10 OK
09 Jun 7:00 pm PDT 86 36 17 NW 6G10 OK
09 Jun 6:50 pm PDT 86 33 15 NW 7G12 OK
09 Jun 6:40 pm PDT 87 35 16 NW 7G12 OK
09 Jun 6:30 pm PDT 87 37 17 NW 7G12 OK
09 Jun 6:20 pm PDT 88 36 16 NNW 8G14 OK
09 Jun 6:10 pm PDT 89 35 15 NW 7G13 OK
09 Jun 6:00 pm PDT 89 35 15 NW 8G13 OK
09 Jun 5:50 pm PDT 89 34 14 NW 8G14 OK
09 Jun 5:40 pm PDT 90 34 14 NW 8G13 OK
09 Jun 5:30 pm PDT 91 37 15 NNW 9G16 OK
09 Jun 5:20 pm PDT 92 38 15 NW 7G14 OK
09 Jun 5:10 pm PDT 92 36 14 NW 5G11 OK
09 Jun 5:00 pm PDT 94 36 13 WNW 5G12 OK
09 Jun 4:50 pm PDT 95 32 11 ESE 6G16 OK
09 Jun 4:40 pm PDT 95 35 12 SE 7G15 OK
09 Jun 4:30 pm PDT 95 35 12 SE 9G16 OK
09 Jun 4:20 pm PDT 95 35 12 SSE 10G18 OK
09 Jun 4:10 pm PDT 96 35 12 SSE 7G16 OK
09 Jun 4:00 pm PDT 95 32 11 SSE 8G15 OK
09 Jun 3:50 pm PDT 95 32 11 SSE 9G16 OK
09 Jun 3:40 pm PDT 95 32 11 SE 11G18 OK
09 Jun 3:30 pm PDT 96 31 10 SE 9G18 OK
09 Jun 3:20 pm PDT 95 30 10 SSE 11G22 OK
09 Jun 3:10 pm PDT 95 30 10 SSE 10G21 OK
09 Jun 3:00 pm PDT 96 31 10 SE 11G20 OK
09 Jun 2:50 pm PDT 96 31 10 SSE 11G18 OK
09 Jun 2:40 pm PDT 96 31 10 SSE 12G21 OK
09 Jun 2:30 pm PDT 95 30 10 SSE 13G23 OK
09 Jun 2:20 pm PDT 96 28 9 SSE 12G22 OK
09 Jun 2:10 pm PDT 96 28 9 SSE 12G21 OK
09 Jun 2:00 pm PDT 96 28 9 SSE 12G22 OK
09 Jun 1:50 pm PDT 96 28 9 S 12G20 OK
09 Jun 1:40 pm PDT 97 29 9 S 11G20 OK

Onshore Flow! My humidity went from 9% to 43%.
Meanwhile....
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Good evening class!


I've been so good the last while.....*grabs pea shooters and spit balls*

Joe's back....
Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.



China Wants to Feed UN Projects Into Its New CO2 Market

Go Easy on the Climate Fatalists. They're Having a Hard Time I disagree with this article.

Citizen science app hopes to create buzz for bee survey

The Day The Icecap Died (fictional story)

Air conditioning turns up the city heat

*** Dark side of the moon: 55-year-old mystery solved



!!! Facing a violent past: Evolution of human ancestors' faces a result of need to weather punches during arguments, study suggests


!!! Does 'free will' stem from brain noise?

*** Major West Antarctic glacier melting from geothermal sources



How 'living roofs' help build better cities

* How solar wind can break through Earth's magnetic field

!!! No limits to human effects on clouds

*** Warming climates intensify greenhouse gas given out by oceans

*** How much fertilizer is too much for the climate?

* Sun Cuihua, deputy director of the climate change office, plays down emission cut expectations


* Global auto component makers gear up for China's tougher emission rules

North Dakota pipeline oil spill cleanup continues

Nebraska editorial roundup


*** How dust in the wind may be quickening Greenland's ice melt

*** Of Fish, Monsoons and the Future: A Push to Save Cambodia's Tonle Sap Lake



Seeing Obstacle-Filled Path to Mars

Spiders' Webs Hum With Information

Duke Energy to pay for Dan River coal ash spill cleanup

See How a Tiny Moon Redecorates Saturn's Rings

Scientists Explore Using Forests to Scrub Pollution Out of the Air


* Battle Over Fracking Poses Threat to Colorado Democrats
Quoting 302. Halcyon19:

Interesting article:

Link

Apparently there is gender discrimination with hurricanes?


For me, that's not surprising. What is scarier to you? Hurricane Bruce or Hurricane Jessica? According to the study, the inclination is towards Bruce being perceived as the scarier storm.

My sister alerted me to the findings (she's a graduate student at ASU in planetary geology), and she sent this to mother and I. Mother forwarded the abstract of the paper to her boss, who forwarded it to her aunt, who is a sociologist. This is what she had to say:

Interesting.
Since I'm a sociologist, I was curious about the gender stereotyping aspect and began to look into their data (supporting information) and their methodology to see what they based it on. Mainly, it's a perception study having people respond to different hurricane scenarios using male versus female names.
They also said they based it upon 6 decades of death rates...(see below) so that sent me back to the statistics and data [I wondered how they got people's responses/recall information regarding whether or not they fled hurricane X or Y] but that part of the report was based upon college student responses to the fictitious scenarios, NOT the actual perception data from real hurricanes.

But to give them the benefit of the doubt, I began checking the proportion of total male names used in their data set vs female names. Loosely counting, I found 2/3 of the names in the set were female and 1/3 male. Then because I remembered that the alternate use of male versus female names for hurricanes began only around the 1980s, I googled it and verified that it started in 1979. I couldn't understand how they could say "We use more than six decades of death rates from US hurricanes to show that feminine-named hurricanes cause significantly more deaths than do masculine-named hurricanes." when the use of male names began only in 1979 - ~ 3 decades ago.

So I returned to their supporting information to see their statistics, began scrolling through the specific data file. It's okay that they had excluded Katrina since the high number of deaths would constitute an outlier. Then I revisited the data file, checked a few more things out. Wanting to re-check another bit of information, I went back to the google link and found this excellent review/critique (Yong) National Geographic Critique which examined the methodology as I was just beginning to do. They did my re-assessment for me!
-Then see the comments to that critique - See especially, the first comment at the bottom of the review. (Peter Apps, June 2, 2014)
-The original authors also provided a rejoinder and the piece de resistance that I particularly liked the comment by Will Holz, June 2:

"I want to test this!


Let%u2019s give a bunch of hurricanes really harmless names and then a bunch of others really scary ones.


If hurricanes Fluffy and Cuddlebutt end up killing far more people than Hades and Murder-Death-Kill then the data will be even stronger.


Also funnier. Except for the dead people part.


Bad fluffy!"

So what can I conclude: The report is a sort of amalgam of hard data (#deaths, pressure, $ cost) with an attitude survey of college students ranking of soft data (masculinity/femininity, attractiveness and intellectual competency of names) and how they somehow correlated. Gender stereotyping began lon-n-g-g-g ago when they first named them after women a la "Hell hath no fury..." "stormy" women, etc. It's interesting now that 'gender-ists' want to show how women aren't really given the 'creds' they should be given even when it comes to hurricane naming.
So, should we tell they they 'should have fear!!'


I should say this is already a few days old (sorry), and some members of the blog expressed disgust at the study. Not sure why, sociology is becoming an ever more important tool in meteorology. Meteorologists need to know how to communicate with the public. For example, no meteorologist would ever try to communicate a warning (in a similar way) to the public like this:



However, this is only one study. More should be done, along with some more interesting paths of study (like that one commenter on the Geographic review noted).

Also, more period of time is needed (unfortunately). The authors of study noted that they used 1950-2012 for the period because 1979 (when male names were introduced) -2012 is too short of a time frame for study. But they noticed the real potential for bias. The time frame was also a main source of disgust for certain bloggers here. Oh well.

Edit: Added clarification.
Quoting 305. VirginIslandsVisitor:



I've been so good the last while.....*grabs pea shooters and spit balls*

Joe's back....


LOL
Well, I was almost finished with my blog until I hit the F5 key instead of the 5 key.

I'm not retyping what I wrote, so I guess my blog will have to wait until tomorrow.

Ugh.
Quoting 305. VirginIslandsVisitor:



I've been so good the last while.....*grabs pea shooters and spit balls*

Joe's back....


How's the fishing?
If only we had known what would happen during 2013, we probably would have been a lot more productive with our lives.
Thunderstorms moving through. Not expecting anything but thunder, lightning, and some more rain.

Quoting 299. TimSoCal:

Weird day. Two hours ago it was 100F. Now? 77.


Only got to 90.4F at my place....
Quoting 309. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well, I was almost finished with my blog until I hit the F5 key instead of the 5 key.

I'm not retyping what I wrote, so I guess my blog will have to wait until tomorrow.

Ugh.
Open up a Notepad/Wordpad/MS Word file and C/P your work there as you're doing it. It's foolproof, because that's happened to me too.
Quoting 299. TimSoCal:

Weird day. Two hours ago it was 100F. Now? 77.

Weird day for you? It only got up to 83 today. IN JUNE.
Now that's weird.
Should return to normal tomorrow. Back up into the 90's.
Sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern Atlantic are running up to a degree below average (daily values), while waters in the Gulf Stream are up to 4C above average. A full-basin El Nino signature is in place, despite the fact that the atmosphere is not cooperating. Waters off the Mexico coastline and south of Alaska are also running 4C above average. Overall, the PDO is strongly positive.

I am encouraged by this persistent ridge over the United States east coast. Teleconnections would place the trough axis over the central plains, a configuration which is very conducive for Gulf Coast hurricanes.

Me want. Me want badly. Hopefully it persists, although climatologically, El Nino would tend to defy that.

Ridge also needs to be a shade stronger, but... eh. Compared to the pattern of troughing over that area for the winter, this is at least a step in the right direction.

319. FOREX
00Z GFS showing the Yucatan low starting at 162 hours. A bit earlier this run.
Quoting 316. TylerStanfield:


Weird day for you? It only got up to 83 today. IN JUNE.
Now that's weird.


I only got up to 75, and we still managed to have thunderstorms. At night, just now. So strange.
323. FOREX
Quoting 319. FOREX:

00Z GFS showing the Yucatan low starting at 162 hours. A bit earlier this run.


This run takes it to NOLA.
I just wanted to touch on the topic of the GFS's forecast of a storm in the Northwestern Caribbean. I will go ahead and admit that this forecast is questionable at best. Though, I'm paying more attention to the idea that the GFS is showing that conditions will become more favorable for tropical cyclone development in the Western Atlantic over the next week or so. This is something I have attributed to the GFS for doing in the past. The GFS shows a storm developing in the same region with consistency, and strengthens it out past 240 hrs and sends it up into the Gulf coast. Debby of 2012 was one of these systems the GFS sniffed out 15 days ahead of time, though it wasn't accurate in strength or track, the system developed in that region and hit the gulf coast. This is why I believe, though the GFS forecast may not verify, that the forecast will give us some kind of idea of the next possibility that we will see tropical cyclone development in this region.

The run to run differences in track give you a clue that the GFS is very conflicted by the tropical cyclones steering due to the changing variables that are being used for each run. Though the tropical cyclone develops in the same region, it doesn't consistently bring the system into the coast in the same area on a multiple run basis, and when the track changes, it is a large difference. (This is evidence of the GFS pushing back the timeframe of development)


As I mentioned before, this similar forecast from the GFS happened with 2012's Debby. 15 days before the actual formation of Debby, the GFS began forecasting a system to form in the southern gulf of Mexico or NW Caribbean at about the 7-10 day range, and did something very similar to what it is doing now. It pushed back the timeframe, and continuously changed the track and strength of the storm on a run to run basis. Though it was consistent with development, it was not consistent with a storm of a certain track or strength.
This is a good reason to not necessarily expect the forecast of a storm in the Northwest Caribbean seven days from now to verify, but to not discount the forecast as completely false. I see a lot of worth in this forecast because it shows us more of what to keep our eyes on 10 to 15 days down the road.
Quoting 324. TylerStanfield:

I just wanted to touch on the topic of the GFS's forecast of a storm in the Northwestern Caribbean. I will go ahead and admit that this forecast is questionable at best. Though, I'm paying more attention to the idea that the GFS is showing that conditions will become more favorable for tropical cyclone development in the Western Atlantic over the next week or so. This is something I have attributed to the GFS for doing in the past. The GFS shows a storm developing in the same region with consistency, and strengthens it out past 240 hrs and sends it up into the Gulf coast. Debby of 2012 was one of these systems the GFS sniffed out 15 days ahead of time, though it wasn't accurate in strength or track, the system developed in that region and hit the gulf coast. This is why I believe, though the GFS forecast may not verify, that the forecast will give us some kind of idea of the next possibility that we will see tropical cyclone development in this region.

The run to run differences in track give you a clue that the GFS is very conflicted by the tropical cyclones steering due to the changing variables that are being used for each run. Though the tropical cyclone develops in the same region, it doesn't consistently bring the system into the coast in the same area on a multiple run basis, and when the track changes, it is a large difference. (This is evidence of the GFS pushing back the timeframe of development)


As I mentioned before, this similar forecast from the GFS happened with 2012's Debby. 15 days before the actual formation of Debby, the GFS began forecasting a system to form in the southern gulf of Mexico or NW Caribbean at about the 7-10 day range, and did something very similar to what it is doing now. It pushed back the timeframe, and continuously changed the track and strength of the storm on a run to run basis. Though it was consistent with development, it was not consistent with a storm of a certain track or strength.
This is a good reason to not necessarily expect the forecast of a storm in the Northwest Caribbean seven days from now to verify, but to not discount the forecast as completely false. I see a lot of worth in this forecast because it shows us more of what to keep our eyes on 10 to 15 days down the road.


Long-range model predictions are certainly pragmatic for providing hints at the possible nuances of the synoptic patten at those time ranges. I don't think they have much worth with individual tropical cyclogenesis, particularly prior to August, but...
326. flsky
Just a thought - could model problems be arising b/c of new climate conditions? Perhaps there is a reliance on past history and not new realities.
Quoting 326. flsky:

Just a thought - could model problems be arising b/c of new climate conditions? Perhaps there is a reliance on past history and not new realities.


If that is the case, we'll need more than a couple years to determine it.
We'll probably get two TD, maybe one will be a decent TS in the Caribbean or Gulf through the end of July. Maybe the beginning of a redo of the yawners that made up all of last season. Watching the Philippines, with their scary high SST's for the real action this year. They're going to likely get crushed by two, three, or four Cat 5's again this year. Haiyan/Yolanda like storm seems probable to happen. Waves looking good over Africa, but they looked great last year too. Sinking air right off the coast took those massively impressive waves and fizzled them out in short work. Thinking 2/5 CV's 3/5 Gulf Caribbean and 2/3 Atlantic for storms. Those Caribbean ones that can ride the warm Gulf Stream and otherwise high SST's up the East Coast could be the big one. Or one that Gets into the Eastern Gulf and threatens the panhandle/Alabama/Western Florida could have SST's that allow RI and a major landing.
Structure improving a little, with a dry slot no longer evident:

Quoting 318. KoritheMan:

I am encouraged by this persistent ridge over the United States east coast. Teleconnections would place the trough axis over the central plains, a configuration which is very conducive for Gulf Coast hurricanes.

Me want. Me want badly. Hopefully it persists, although climatologically, El Nino would tend to defy that.

Ridge also needs to be a shade stronger, but... eh. Compared to the pattern of troughing over that area for the winter, this is at least a step in the right direction.



That pattern is only favorable for storms originating in the Gulf or Caribbean...where shear should be the highest with the upcoming El Nino. Anything outside of that would recurve into the weakness south of Newfoundland.

Meh.
Quoting 328. DeepSeaRising:

We'll probably get two TD, maybe one will be a decent TS in the Caribbean or Gulf through the end of July. Maybe the beginning of a redo of the yawners that made up all of last season. Watching the Philippines, with their scary high SST's for the real action this year. They're going to likely get crushed by two, three, or four Cat 5's again this year. Haiyan/Yolanda like storm seems probable to happen. Waves looking good over Africa, but they looked great last year too. Sinking air right off the coast took those massively impressive waves and fizzled them out in short work. Thinking 2/5 CV's 3/5 Gulf Caribbean and 2/3 Atlantic for storms. Those Caribbean ones that can ride the warm Gulf Stream and otherwise high SST's up the East Coast could be the big one. Or one that Gets into the Eastern Gulf and threatens the panhandle/Alabama/Western Florida could have SST's that allow RI and a major landing.

I disagree. Even disregarding that most El Nino years feature a trough near Japan which recurves most storms, Haiyan was arguably the most intense tropical cyclone ever observed. Even though this is shaping up to be a big year, that would be equivalent to saying the USA will see several Katrinas because waters are warm (they're not this year).
Kori, this year between the end of July and mid August I think you'll get your 80-110mph cane to chase. Look forward to the pictures and reports. :)
EP, 03, 2014061006, , BEST, 0, 157N, 1022W, 35, 1004, TS
Quoting 331. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I disagree. Even disregarding that most El Nino years feature a trough near Japan which recurves most storms, Haiyan was arguably the most intense tropical cyclone ever observed. Even though this is shaping up to be a big year, that would be equivalent to saying the USA will see several Katrinas because waters are warm (they're not this year).


Very valid point, that eddy of super heated water Katrina went over was quite unique to that season and true, the Gulf is pretty average this year. But, the Philippines have SST's well above average again and even in El Nino seasons they get hit hard. El Nino doesn't have a drastic increase for shear affect for the West Pacific and any storm will have top end fuel to reach peak typhoon status. And just to play devil's advocate, the Philippines see Katrina strength storms on a yearly basis. Minus the storm surge of coarse, that was unique to where Katrina made landfall.
But TA13, what do I really know? I use to go by Tribucanes before I had to change my handle because of the reset and I couldn't access my old email account to get that handle back. You've always kindly and patiently answered my questions, your knowledge of tropical formation dwarfs mine and almost all I know, I learned here from the very intelligent members. You and a handful of others are at the top of that list.
Quoting 330. TropicalAnalystwx13:


That pattern is only favorable for storms originating in the Gulf or Caribbean...where shear should be the highest with the upcoming El Nino. Anything outside of that would recurve into the weakness south of Newfoundland.

Meh.


It only takes one. Don't make me use your last name. :)
Short good morning hello from thunderstormy and record heated Germany ...

Raging storm in western Germany kills five, disrupts transport
Reuters, 10/06 09:03 CET, By Matthias Inverardi

DUESSELDORF Germany (Reuters) – At least five people were killed in violent storms that swept Germany’s most populous state late on Monday, felling trees, disrupting public transport and leaving some roads impassable.

After a scorchingly hot three-day holiday weekend, thunderstorms, strong winds and heavy rain pounded the western state of North-Rhine Westphalia, causing Germany’s third-largest airport in Duesseldorf to close for about an hour.

Three people were reported to have died in the state capital when a tree fell onto a garden shed in which they were seeking shelter. Fire fighters rescued three more injured people – two severely hurt – from the shed, according to media.

A cyclist aged around 50 died in nearby Cologne after being hit by a falling tree that local police said was probably struck by lightning. Another person died in the town of Essen while trying to clear a street.

Ten incoming flights at Duesseldorf airport were diverted while 10 other flights were cancelled. The airport said gusts of up to 150 kilometres an hour (93 mph) were recorded. It opened again at 10 p.m. local time (2000 GMT).

Early on Tuesday, national rail operator Deutsche Bahn said numerous train services were still suspended and trains in operation would face severe delays.

Fallen trees blocked some streets in Duesseldorf, where trams and underground trains were also stopped due to damaged overhead lines. Some locals reported electrical outages.



More than 230.000 lightnings yesterday in Germany. Source: wetteronline.de

New heat records (translated from here):
On Monday numerous heat records for the beginning of June were measured. On the Upper Rhine (Rheinstetten) the thermometer showed 36.7 degrees Celsius (98,06F). The old national heat record for the first third of June stood at 35.5 degrees from the year 1947. Too, the records of more than 100 years long time series such as those of Stuttgart, Bamberg, were outbid by more than one degree. On Tuesday, new records can tumble in the East. In the Berlin area, we expect about 35 degrees.

Morning everybody.
I see we have TC 2 off the West coast of India, about time something came out of all that heat over there.

Here's link to the wind map for it, feeding all its winds from down west in Somalia, south of the horn of Africa:-

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobari c/1000hPa/orthographic=65.89,15.15,1264

Link

Calm and getting warmer here in southern Spain with temps set to get to 40/C by weekend, no wind and crystal clear outside this morning.
A lot of thunder storms to the north of us as Barbamz pointed out.

I totally agree with Sar about posting at this time of the year, as he pointed out on page one of the blog!
For those of us who don't know what we are talking about, its pointless and somewhat rude to clog up the blog with chatter when people with important things to say and serious questions are on here, hence I also don't post much during the season.
Having said that things are not as bad as they used to be.

Quoting 338. PlazaRed:


I totally agree with Sar about posting at this time of the year, as he pointed out on page one of the blog!
For those of us who don't know what we are talking about, its pointless and somewhat rude to clog up the blog with chatter when people with important things to say and serious questions are on here, hence I also don't post much during the season.
It's not rude at all. If this place was all weather all the time, I think it would actually be incredibly boring. It's good to add more "real life" elements to the posts here, for lack of a better term.*

*Except during hurricane duress.
Thanks Barbamz. Glad I didn't end up travelling yesterday to Belgium. Ended up cooking at the Carnival of Culture here in Berlin. I am the only one who wore shorts to the office today....I think I will be very glad I did by the end of the day.
Good morning all. I see Christina is here, and headed west per the NHC track forecast....

Now we'll see if conditions in the WCar improve sufficiently to give us something to watch next weekend. I just find it ironic that it rained all weekend when I had lots of free time, but now that I have to go back to work, we're supposed to get lots of sunshine...
Tyler - re comment 324.... well said, and shows what I have been trying to get pple to see about the long-range GFS. The big deal is that we're likely to see something form in the area between Caymans and, say, Veracruz, because GFS has been consistently suggesting that conditions will become more conducive to formation in that area. Landfall scenarios can wait until we have something actually forming out there.



Hmmm.... things may be dull in the ATL, but looks like they're picking up elsewhere...
a href="hazel our state magazine" target="_blank">Link
Germany storms: Six dead in North Rhine-Westphalia
BBC News, 10 June 2014 Last updated at 09:35 GMT

Another breathtaking video from the storm (Link to youtube, as embedding is disabled).


I'm in the red cone of Estofex today. We'll see whether something will develop later this evening.

Quote from the discussion:
Main activity is expected in the evening and night hours in the wake of the short-wave trough due to the QG lift underneath the right entrance region of the mid-level jet streak. Together with warm air advection, steep lapse rates will be in place over the moist boundary layer, resulting in 30 hPa MLCAPE of more than 1000 J/kg well into the night.
Quoting 307. Astrometeor:



For me, that's not surprising. What is scarier to you? Hurricane Bruce or Hurricane Jessica? According to the study, the inclination is towards Bruce being perceived as the scarier storm.

My sister alerted me to the findings (she's a graduate student at ASU in planetary geology), and she sent this to mother and I. Mother forwarded the abstract of the paper to her boss, who forwarded it to her aunt, who is a sociologist. This is what she had to say:

Interesting.
Since I'm a sociologist, I was curious about the gender stereotyping aspect and began to look into their data (supporting information) and their methodology to see what they based it on. Mainly, it's a perception study having people respond to different hurricane scenarios using male versus female names.
They also said they based it upon 6 decades of death rates...(see below) so that sent me back to the statistics and data [I wondered how they got people's responses/recall information regarding whether or not they fled hurricane X or Y] but that part of the report was based upon college student responses to the fictitious scenarios, NOT the actual perception data from real hurricanes.

But to give them the benefit of the doubt, I began checking the proportion of total male names used in their data set vs female names. Loosely counting, I found 2/3 of the names in the set were female and 1/3 male. Then because I remembered that the alternate use of male versus female names for hurricanes began only around the 1980s, I googled it and verified that it started in 1979. I couldn't understand how they could say "We use more than six decades of death rates from US hurricanes to show that feminine-named hurricanes cause significantly more deaths than do masculine-named hurricanes." when the use of male names began only in 1979 - ~ 3 decades ago.

So I returned to their supporting information to see their statistics, began scrolling through the specific data file. It's okay that they had excluded Katrina since the high number of deaths would constitute an outlier. Then I revisited the data file, checked a few more things out. Wanting to re-check another bit of information, I went back to the google link and found this excellent review/critique (Yong) National Geographic Critique which examined the methodology as I was just beginning to do. They did my re-assessment for me!
-Then see the comments to that critique - See especially, the first comment at the bottom of the review. (Peter Apps, June 2, 2014)
-The original authors also provided a rejoinder and the piece de resistance that I particularly liked the comment by Will Holz, June 2:

"I want to test this!


Let%u2019s give a bunch of hurricanes really harmless names and then a bunch of others really scary ones.


If hurricanes Fluffy and Cuddlebutt end up killing far more people than Hades and Murder-Death-Kill then the data will be even stronger.


Also funnier. Except for the dead people part.


Bad fluffy!"

So what can I conclude: The report is a sort of amalgam of hard data (#deaths, pressure, $ cost) with an attitude survey of college students ranking of soft data (masculinity/femininity, attractiveness and intellectual competency of names) and how they somehow correlated. Gender stereotyping began lon-n-g-g-g ago when they first named them after women a la "Hell hath no fury..." "stormy" women, etc. It's interesting now that 'gender-ists' want to show how women aren't really given the 'creds' they should be given even when it comes to hurricane naming.
So, should we tell they they 'should have fear!!'


I should say this is already a few days old (sorry), and some members of the blog expressed disgust at the study. Not sure why, sociology is becoming an ever more important tool in meteorology. Meteorologists need to know how to communicate with the public. For example, no meteorologist would ever try to communicate a warning (in a similar way) to the public like this:



However, this is only one study. More should be done, along with some more interesting paths of study (like that one commenter on the Geographic review noted).

Also, more period of time is needed (unfortunately). The authors of study noted that they used 1950-2012 for the period because 1979 (when male names were introduced) -2012 is too short of a time frame for study. But they noticed the real potential for bias. The time frame was also a main source of disgust for certain bloggers here. Oh well.

Edit: Added clarification.


My issue, like with most of these types of studies, is that it is measuring the perception of gender by college students. It is not a representative sample, it tells us nothing about the population. We know that in general younger groups have a different perception of gender in comparison to other generations and that there are generational shifts in perceptions towards gender with younger groups becoming more progressive in their views. So what they are really measuring is college students perception and that perception means very little without a comparison. Is this sample more or less gender biased than the general population?

Working on a Ph.D. in Sociology myself, I see studies like this as fun practice, but I don't see it adding much to the discipline. There are many studies showing perceived gender bias in college students, this one looks like it just used hurricanes to drum up some attention.
This was from a marketing Ph.D. student, not a sociologist.

Quoting 326. flsky:

Just a thought - could model problems be arising b/c of new climate conditions? Perhaps there is a reliance on past history and not new realities.

Negligable. Weather models are a collection of physics formulas that take observations as input parameters. Climate change doesn't induce a change of physics - let us say until the oceans boil.
Deadly floods hit Brazil
Southern states of the South American nation inundated ahead of the World Cup
AlJazeera, Last updated: 10 Jun 2014 09:53

As the FIFA World Cup is due to start in a matter of days in Brazil, two southern states, Parana and Santa Catarina, have been fatally inundated by torrential rainfall, with over 75 cities and towns affected.

The widespread flooding has thus far killed nine people and destroyed over 5,000 homes, leaving thousands homeless. Local television reported that the overflowing rivers had managed to submerge bridges and highways, making it difficult for rescue operations to be undertaken.

In response, authorities have declared a state of emergency across the Parana state and have begun distributing vaccines and medicines in a bid to prevent an outbreak of waterborne diseases. Army helicopters have also been dispatched to provide relief to over 3,600 stranded victims. ...


Bye for now ...
new system 2 wk forecasted system seems a bit stronger than debbie a few yrs ago
350. MahFL
Quoting 323. FOREX:



This run takes it to NOLA.


Someone call Mayor Nagan...oh wait he's in Federal prison...
Be on the lookout in Dixie Alley today.

Today looks decent. Good damaging wind threat if the 850 and 925 winds can get transferred to ground, secondary small tornado threat


Quoting etxwx:
We had an inch of rain from the line that come through this part of Jasper Co. TX this afternoon - and the hay was baled just in time. Phew!
Unfortunately, according to the local news, it sounded like the rain missed AtHomeInTexas to the south. Looks like another line forming for round two. Keeping my fingers crossed for ya, AtHome!


Hey etx! Looked like it got rocky up your way again this morning. I'm glad you got that hay baled in time. :) We couldn't get a drop yesterday, again. Naturally, my daughter started her new job this morning and the bottom fell out! Got over an inch in about 20 minutes. She made it in ok. Said there was some flooding on the roads. It's past us now.
Later this afternoon, we start to see some strong individual cells get going across central Mississippi and Northern Alabama. That's when we will most likely see the best chance of an isolated tornado.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
DEPRESSION ARB01-2014
14:30 PM IST June 10 2014
===============================

At 9:00 AM UTC, Latest satellite imagery and observations indicate that a depression has formed over east central Arabian Sea and lay centered near 15.5N 68.5E, about 610 km southwest of Mumbai, 630 km south southwest of Veraval and 1160 km southeast of Masirah Island (Oman).

It would move north northwestwards and intensify further into a deep depression during next 24 hrs. Subsequently it would move west northwestwards towards Oman coast.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T1.5. Associated broken low/medium clouds embedded with intense to very intense convection is seen over the area between latitude 12.0N to 17.5N 61.0E to 70.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -75C. The convective clouds in the system have organized with merging of clusters during the past six hours.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center .The winds are higher in the southern sector (25-35 knots) due to monsoon surge. The central pressure of the depression is 998 hPa.

The sea surface temperature over the region is about 30-32C. The ocean thermal energy is about 80-120 kj/cm2. The relative vorticity in lower levels has increased during the past 24 hours along with the low level convergence. However, the upper level divergence also increased during the past six hours. The vertical wind shear in the horizontal wind has increased over the region and is about 20-30 knots. Despite of the adverse vertical wind shear the system has intensified due to favorable sea surface temperatures, low level vorticity and upper level divergence. Considering Madden-Julian oscillation, it lies in phase 3 (equatorial east Indian ocean) with amplitude less than 1.The models predict it to lie in phase 3 during the next 5 days with increasing amplitude, but less than 1. Hence, while Madden-Julian oscillation phase is favorable, amplitude is not favorable for intensification.

Considering numerical weather prediction models, GFS continues to show cyclone with initial north westward and then westwards movement towards Oman coast. However, it weakens the system, near Oman coast making it as a low at 1200 PM UTC, Sunday ECMWF Meteo France and UKMO models indicate low in initial condition and maximum intensification up to depression/ deep depression during the next 72 hours with north westward movement and weakening of the system thereafter. Hence, there is a large variation in the intensity prediction by the models.
Good Morning All.  Christina is barely a tropical storm at the moment at 35 knots but she should be able to intensify over the next few days as the convection consolidates over the center of the low; two separate convective areas at the moment.  The pressure needs to lower some more to be able to pull it all together:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/03E/imagery/wv0-lalo.gif
356.GeoffreyWPB 8:31 AM EDT on June 10, 2014

The US and parts of the Caribbean have been "very" lucky the past several years/seasons as noted.  We also used to often get strong higher end Cape Verde storms, that intensified in the Central Atlantic, plowing through the Lesser Antilles on a pretty regular basis every few years.  If you will note the past several years either the steering patterns have sent these storms into the Central Atlantic (fish storms) or the ones that have reached the Antilles have been struggling tropical storms.  The lucky streak cannot go on forever but this break is most appreciated and insurance companies have had a chance to recover and store some reserves all well.
 
Insurance companies get a break?
really?

That is Humor I assume.
Quoting 318. KoritheMan:

I am encouraged by this persistent ridge over the United States east coast. Teleconnections would place the trough axis over the central plains, a configuration which is very conducive for Gulf Coast hurricanes.

Me want. Me want badly. Hopefully it persists, although climatologically, El Nino would tend to defy that.

Ridge also needs to be a shade stronger, but... eh. Compared to the pattern of troughing over that area for the winter, this is at least a step in the right direction.



Got me interested

Quoting 324. TylerStanfield:

I just wanted to touch on the topic of the GFS's forecast of a storm in the Northwestern Caribbean. I will go ahead and admit that this forecast is questionable at best. Though, I'm paying more attention to the idea that the GFS is showing that conditions will become more favorable for tropical cyclone development in the Western Atlantic over the next week or so. This is something I have attributed to the GFS for doing in the past. The GFS shows a storm developing in the same region with consistency, and strengthens it out past 240 hrs and sends it up into the Gulf coast. Debby of 2012 was one of these systems the GFS sniffed out 15 days ahead of time, though it wasn't accurate in strength or track, the system developed in that region and hit the gulf coast. This is why I believe, though the GFS forecast may not verify, that the forecast will give us some kind of idea of the next possibility that we will see tropical cyclone development in this region.

The run to run differences in track give you a clue that the GFS is very conflicted by the tropical cyclones steering due to the changing variables that are being used for each run. Though the tropical cyclone develops in the same region, it doesn't consistently bring the system into the coast in the same area on a multiple run basis, and when the track changes, it is a large difference. (This is evidence of the GFS pushing back the timeframe of development)


As I mentioned before, this similar forecast from the GFS happened with 2012's Debby. 15 days before the actual formation of Debby, the GFS began forecasting a system to form in the southern gulf of Mexico or NW Caribbean at about the 7-10 day range, and did something very similar to what it is doing now. It pushed back the timeframe, and continuously changed the track and strength of the storm on a run to run basis. Though it was consistent with development, it was not consistent with a storm of a certain track or strength.
This is a good reason to not necessarily expect the forecast of a storm in the Northwest Caribbean seven days from now to verify, but to not discount the forecast as completely false. I see a lot of worth in this forecast because it shows us more of what to keep our eyes on 10 to 15 days down the road.

Ok nice

Quoting 342. BahaHurican:

Tyler - re comment 324.... well said, and shows what I have been trying to get pple to see about the long-range GFS. The big deal is that we're likely to see something form in the area between Caymans and, say, Veracruz, because GFS has been consistently suggesting that conditions will become more conducive to formation in that area. Landfall scenarios can wait until we have something actually forming out there.



Yeah

Quoting 361. weathermanwannabe:

356.GeoffreyWPB 8:31 AM EDT on June 10, 2014

The US and parts of the Caribbean have been "very" lucky the past several years/seasons as noted.  We also used to often get strong higher end Cape Verde storms, that intensified in the Central Atlantic, plowing through the Lesser Antilles on a pretty regular basis every few years.  If you will note the past several years either the steering patterns have sent these storms into the Central Atlantic (fish storms) or the ones that have reached the Antilles have been struggling tropical storms.  The lucky streak cannot go on forever but this break is most appreciated and insurance companies have had a chance to recover and store some reserves all well.
 



There may be more to it than luck. The global climate is changing. The polar jet, for one thing, is behaving in an unprecedented manner. But, I wouldn't rule out another 2005.

Tornado activity in the US in recent years has also been strange, very severe to very calm. Could be the same with hurricanes.
Quoting 362. Patrap:

Insurance companies get a break?
really?

That is Humor I assume.


Did somebody say Homer?

Edit... sorry, that says humor. The capitalized H made me read it otherwise.

Doh!
The ridge and wind setup does seem to be giving Florida a break this year. We actually had rain during the winter, when it doesn't all evaporate.
Our dry May wasn't horribly so, and summer showers seem to be kicking in "on time" this year.
If high level winds can shred and slaw some tropical systems headed our way, so we get the rain but not the wind, our lakes may reach "normal" level by the fall. My wishcasting.
EP, 03, 2014061012, , BEST, 0, 156N, 1026W, 40, 1003, TS
02A in the Arabian Sea looks good. Intense Convection appearing in the Rainbow Satellite Image,



DATE TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION ID NAME
20140610 0830 15.9 -68.4 T2.5/2.5 02A NONAME

TXIO24 KNES 100844
TCSNIO

A. 02A (NONAME)

B. 10/0830Z

C. 15.9N

D. 68.4E

E. THREE/MET-7

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS/AMSU

H. REMARKS...LLC REMAINS WELL DEFINED AND CONVECTIVE CLUSTER HAS REMAINED
PERSISTENT ALONG THE INNER BAND OF THE LLC. SHEAR METHOD WOULD YIELD
UNREALISTIC DT OF 3.5 FOR EMBEDDED IN CONVECTION AND THOUGH BANDING IS
NOT VERY EVIDENT... .4 CAN BE MEASURED TO YIELD MORE REALISTIC DT OF
2.5. MET IS RAPID TREND FOR 2.5. PT IS 2.5 AS WELL. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

10/0310Z 15.6N 68.6E SSMIS
10/0524Z 15.8N 68.8E AMSU


...GALLINA

Storm info.
Ouch :(

EDIT: I should have known -_-.Here is the CAPE for June 11th Link

Some of the highest is over D.C and we have a chance of thunderstorms tomorrow.
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ESTER
5:00 PM PhST June 10 2014
================================================= ======

Tropical Depression "ESTER" has maintained its strength as it slightly accelerated moving northeastward.

At 4:00 PM PhST, Tropical Depression Ester [1000 hPa] located at 22.3N 122.7E or 200 km north northeast of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving northeast at 11 knots.

Signal Warnings
===============

Signal Warning #1

Luzon Region
----------------
Batanes Group of Islands.

Additional Information
===================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 5–15 mm/hr within the 250 km diameter of the depression.

"ESTER" will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon which will bring moderate to heavy rains over Ilocos Region, Zambales, and Bataan.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today
Two X Solar Flares today! http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_1m.html
Ouch :(

EDIT: I should have known -_-.Here is the CAPE for June 11th Link

Some of the highest is over D.C and we have a chance of thunderstorms tomorrow.




don't you like how they make you look like a cyber thief.....you're probably now on their most wanted list :-)
Here is the relative position of the Conus jet relative to the locations to that will have the bumpiest ride today as this front comes through:

http://squall.sfsu.edu/gif/jetstream_init_00.gif
Quoting 375. hydrus:



Looks like any way GFS wants to put it, it's still gonna be a good amount of rain for us.
Quoting 376. ricderr:

Ouch :(

EDIT: I should have known -_-.Here is the CAPE for June 11th Link

Some of the highest is over D.C and we have a chance of thunderstorms tomorrow.




don't you like how they make you look like a cyber thief.....you're probably now on their most wanted list :-)
Now I'm going to have to change my name and everything!.lol.
Quoting 374. Luisport:

Two X Solar Flares today! http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_1m.html

TWC Space Weather @twcspacewx · 6 min

Back-to-back X-class solar flares over the last few hours. Not clear yet whether either will result in an Earth-directed CME.

Quoting 378. wunderkidcayman:


Looks like any way GFS wants to put it, it's still gonna be a good amount of rain for us.
Yep. Still waiting on the Euro to come aboard. It shows the pressure being relatively low in the S.W.Caribbean, but nothing else...yet
anyone notice what octant the mjo is in next week????
Quoting 380. Luisport:


TWC Space Weather @twcspacewx · 6 min

Back-to-back X-class solar flares over the last few hours. Not clear yet whether either will result in an Earth-directed CME.


A bright coronal mass ejection (CME) is now visible in the latest STEREO Ahead COR2 imagery following the X1.5 solar flare around sunspot 2087 at 12:52 UTC this morning. Should be directed mostly away from our planet, however more updates to follow once additional imagery becomes available.

Event log. http://www.solarham.net/data/events/jun10_2014_x1. 5/ https://www.facebook.com/SolarHam
GFS 144HR

The area of severe weather in the US seems small today. Is it the time of year or just my perception not being actually IN one of the severe weather zones? I don't know what to do. What season is it when there aren't any fires OR active Atlantic hurricanes?

Edit...on the East Coast.
Quoting 382. ricderr:

anyone notice what octant the mjo is in next week????
Quoting 384. SFLWeatherman:

GFS 144HR



It's certainly starting to stick to time
On 00Z it wasn't till 162hrs when it formed the low
So formation of the actual low (not the disturbance itself that starts earlier)
00Z 162hrs
06Z 144hrs
Ok if this trend continues then it may get interesting
388. etxwx
Quoting 353. AtHomeInTX:



Hey etx! Looked like it got rocky up your way again this morning. I'm glad you got that hay baled in time. :) We couldn't get a drop yesterday, again. Naturally, my daughter started her new job this morning and the bottom fell out! Got over an inch in about 20 minutes. She made it in ok. Said there was some flooding on the roads. It's past us now.


I'm happy to hear you finally got some rain even if it had to come as a brief deluge. Congrats to your daughter on the new job - I guess it will show "employee dedication" that she braved a flood to get there on her first day. :)
We picked up another 1.5 inches last night. It was rockin' and rollin' pretty good in the middle of the night and the vibrating storm dogs reached defcon 4.
It's looking nice here today in East Texas with temps only in the upper 80's. Hope everyone has a great day!
Quoting 386. hydrus:


Just to piggyback on that...

1028 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 SE UNIVERSITY PARK 38.96N 76.93W
06/10/2014 PRINCE GEORGES MD FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

A WATER RESCUE WAS BEING PERFORMED ON AN OCCUPIED
VEHICLE STRANDED IN HIGH WATER AT THE INTERSECTION OF
EAST WEST HIGHWAY AND TAYLOR ROAD.
391. bwi
Wow, had I not overslept, I would have been riding my bike right along the river. Think I'll work at home a bit longer...

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1019 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

MDC033-101630-
/O.CON.KLWX.FF.W.0014.000000T0000Z-140610T1630Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
PRINCE GEORGES MD-
1019 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM EDT FOR
NORTH CENTRAL PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY...

AT 1014 AM EDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED FLASH FLOODING FROM
VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH MULTIPLE WATER RESCUES ON GOING. THIS IS A
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

UP TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WARNED AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1 INCH CAN BE
EXPECTED.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BELTSVILLE...
BLADENSBURG...CHEVERLY...COLLEGE PARK...GREENBELT...HYATTSVILLE...
KETTERING...LANDOVER...LAUREL...MITCHELLVILLE...N EW CARROLLTON...SEAT
PLEASANT...BYRD STADIUM AND FEDEX FIELD.

MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR
VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. FLOODWATER USUALLY IS
DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. MAKE THE SMART CHOICE WHEN
FLOODED ROADS ARE ENCOUNTERED...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
Quoting etxwx:


I'm happy to hear you finally got some rain even if it had to come as a brief deluge. Congrats to your daughter on the new job - I guess it will show "employee dedication" that she braved a flood to get there on her first day. :)
We picked up another 1.5 inches last night. It was rockin' and rollin' pretty good in the middle of the night and the vibrating storm dogs reached defcon 4.
It's looking nice here today in East Texas with temps only in the upper 80's. Hope everyone has a great day!


Thanks etx! We always seem to get our rain that way lately. All or nothing. Glad you got some more too. My dog was having a breakdown too and hid under the bed as usual. lol. Hope you have a great day too! :)
Glad to see an active convection pattern here. This is already drastically different from our last El NIno year in 2009. Back then, I remember going almost the whole month of June without any rain!

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
951 am EDT Tue Jun 10 2014

Prev discussion [640 am edt]...

Short term [tonight through thursday]...
moisture will increase rapidly tonight with qg forcing for ascent
increasing ahead of an approaching upper level shortwave.
Pops
continue in the likely range for much of the forecast area on
Wednesday with convection moving into the western area late
tonight into Wednesday morning prior to sunrise, then spreading
across the remainder of the area during the day. Some of the cam
guidance is starting to hint at locally heavy rainfall across
portions of the Florida Panhandle, generally from Bay County north
and westward (the usual suspects it seems).
Amounts still do not
look excessive at this time, although it wouldn't be surprising to
see isolated locations in this area pick up a few inches. Most of
the area is expected to pick up around three quarters of an inch
to an inch. The increased cloud cover and convective coverage are
expected to keep high temperatures generally in the mid to upper
80s across the area. The upper shortwave is expected to be over
the forecast area on Thursday with the best chance of convection
across the eastern half. Highs will be just a few degrees warmer
on Thursday than Wednesday.



Long term [thursday night through tuesday]...
a surface ridge will remain south of the area through the period
with generally southwest flow at the lower levels. An upper low
will cut off over the mid Mississippi or Tennessee Valley over the
weekend before opening up and lifting northeastward. This feature
will enhance pops over the forecast area on Saturday and Sunday.

Temperatures will be near normal through the period.
394. FOREX
Quoting 387. wunderkidcayman:


It's certainly starting to stick to time
On 00Z it wasn't till 162hrs when it formed the low
So formation of the actual low (not the disturbance itself that starts earlier)
00Z 162hrs
06Z 144hrs
Ok if this trend continues then it may get interesting



I noticed that also WKC. Only thing is it wants to go to NOLA, and I want it in Panama City Beach.
Caribbean at 186HR on the GFS and ECMWF


Quoting 393. opal92nwf:

Glad to see an active convection pattern here. This is already drastically different from our last El NIno year in 2009. Back then, I remember going almost the whole month of June without any rain!

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
951 am EDT Tue Jun 10 2014

Prev discussion [640 am edt]...

Short term [tonight through thursday]...
moisture will increase rapidly tonight with qg forcing for ascent
increasing ahead of an approaching upper level shortwave.
Pops
continue in the likely range for much of the forecast area on
Wednesday with convection moving into the western area late
tonight into Wednesday morning prior to sunrise, then spreading
across the remainder of the area during the day. Some of the cam
guidance is starting to hint at locally heavy rainfall across
portions of the Florida Panhandle, generally from Bay County north
and westward (the usual suspects it seems).
Amounts still do not
look excessive at this time, although it wouldn't be surprising to
see isolated locations in this area pick up a few inches. Most of
the area is expected to pick up around three quarters of an inch
to an inch. The increased cloud cover and convective coverage are
expected to keep high temperatures generally in the mid to upper
80s across the area. The upper shortwave is expected to be over
the forecast area on Thursday with the best chance of convection
across the eastern half. Highs will be just a few degrees warmer
on Thursday than Wednesday.



Long term [thursday night through tuesday]...
a surface ridge will remain south of the area through the period
with generally southwest flow at the lower levels. An upper low
will cut off over the mid Mississippi or Tennessee Valley over the
weekend before opening up and lifting northeastward. This feature
will enhance pops over the forecast area on Saturday and Sunday.

Temperatures will be near normal through the period.

Yeah we haven't had a shortage of rain lately that's for sure! I'm good with it just as long as this Summer isn't as wet as last year, we've already had an extremely wet Spring.
397. FOREX
Quoting 395. SFLWeatherman:

Caribbean at 186HR on the GFS and ECMWF





Can't see images, what is it showing??
Quoting 394. FOREX:



I noticed that also WKC. Only thing is it wants to go to NOLA, and I want it in Panama City Beach.

Key tip forget about where it would end up for now wait till we have something that has formed then we can start to dwell on where it might end up

Quoting 397. FOREX:



Can't see images, what is it showing??

Nor can I
Quoting 356. GeoffreyWPB:

In 1933, Richard Gray, a U.S. government weather forecaster, noted that Florida had been hit by at least 37 hurricanes over the 45 years ending in 1930. During this period, the longest stretch with no tropical storms was only two years.

When the 2014 hurricane season officially began on June 1, the Sunshine State had gone more than eight years without being struck by a hurricane. It was back on Oct. 24, 2005, when Hurricane Wilma emerged from the Gulf of Mexico and caused billions of dollars in damage in South Florida. In fact, Wilma was the last Category 3 or stronger storm to hit the USA.




The article is interesting. Particularly the statement "Today, by contrast, there is strong downward pressure on rates as a shortage of damaging hurricanes has contributed to a glut of capital available to backstop hurricane risk." Part of this was linked to another blog where the cost of reinsurance was expected to drop, and profits to investors to increase. I suppose it's wishful thinking to hope any of this would be passed to homeowners with lower rates...
Hmm
12Z Sfc map show tropical wave that's in the Caribbean has moved NW in the SW Caribbean
403. FOREX
Quoting 402. wunderkidcayman:

Hmm
12Z Sfc map show tropical wave that's in the Caribbean has moved NW in the SW Caribbean


Where, near Panama?
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
405. FOREX
12Z GFS should be running in 13 minutes. It will be interesting if it sticks to timing of the Yucatan low forming again this run.
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