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90L in Gulf of Mexico Bringing Heavy Rains to Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:15 PM GMT on June 06, 2014

Heavy rains continue to fall in Southeast Mexico due to a tropical disturbance in the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, Invest 90L. Satellite loops show that 90L has a well-defined surface circulation, but limited heavy thunderstorm activity. High wind shear of 30 knots, due to strong upper-level winds out of the west, is keeping all of 90L's heavy thunderstorms confined to the east side of the center. An ASCAT pass from last night showed 90L's strongest surface winds were near 35 mph, on the northeast side of the storm. Radar out of Alvarado, Mexico shows little in the way of well-organized low level spiral bands. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Southern Gulf of Mexico are about 28°, which is about 0.5° above average. These warm waters do not extend to great depth, and the total heat energy available to intensify a potential storm is rather low. The Hurricane Hunters have been given the order to investigate 90L on Friday afternoon at 3pm EDT.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 90L over the Gulf of Mexico.

Forecast for 90L
90L appears to be drifting slowly to the west, and both the GFS and European model predict this motion will continue Friday and Saturday, bringing the storm ashore along the Mexican coast near Veracruz on Saturday. The 8 am EDT Friday run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will stay high, 25 - 35 knots, over the Bay of Campeche through Sunday. None of the reliable genesis forecast models predict that 90L will develop into a tropical storm over the next five days. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 50%. If 90L does develop, the strongest it would likely get is 45 mph sustained winds. The big threat from 90L is heavy rains, which will continue over Southeast Mexico into the weekend, causing flash flooding and dangerous mudslides.


Figure 2. Total precipitation recorded for the 24 hours ending at 8 am Thursday June 5, 2014. Rainfall amounts in the 24 hours ending at 8 am Thursday were as high as 8.78" (223 mm) at Palizada at the base of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Thus far, there are no reports of deaths or heavy damage in Mexico from 90L or Tropical Storm Boris. Image credit: Conagua.

I'll have a new post on Saturday at the latest.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 481. Civicane49:

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1025 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014

"However, some chance for
development still remains because the center is very near the coast
and a slow and erratic motion is possible overnight."
Forecaster Franklin/Stewart


Something tells me 90L won't be moving back over water.
Quoting 488. Climate175:

No TD.


10:30 PM EDT- Severe Thunderstorm Watch expanded south to include Tallahassee and parts of Florida (til 2 AM).
Quoting 492. Astrometeor:



What's a blackout period?

When the NHC initiates advisories/updates on a tropical cyclone, their information is synced with the ATCF; by having it setup this way, anybody with access to the directory would learn when they would be starting advisories (like we did). Starting this year, the data will be "hidden" so that we will have no idea when advisories are being started until they actually are.
Quoting 482. TropicalAnalystwx13:

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1025 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to update the discussion of
the disturbance in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Updated: Surface observations and reports from an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the center of the low pressure
system near Vera Cruz is just inland. However, some chance for
development still remains because the center is very near the coast
and a slow and erratic motion is possible overnight. Regardless of
whether any development occurs, this system will continue to produce
gusty winds and heavy rains, along with life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides, over portions of southeastern and eastern
Mexico during the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Franklin/Stewart

Ok this is not what I meant
This is a drop down not up

Ok let me give you an example of one

EXAMPLE EXAMPLE EXAMPLE EXAMPLE EXAMPLE

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to update the discussion of
the disturbance in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Updated: Surface observations and reports from an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the the low pressure
system near Vera Cruz has become a Tropical Depression.
However, center is very near the coast and a slow and erratic
motion is possible overnight. Advisories will be issued soon, this system will continue to produce
gusty winds and heavy rains, along with life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides, over portions of southeastern and eastern
Mexico during the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...High...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...High...near 100 percent

EXAMPLE EXAMPLE EXAMPLE EXAMPLE EXAMPLE
Quoting 495. WeatherNerdPR:

I have no idea what is going on anymore. Maybe they should just leave this one for post-season analysis...

It appears they will. It was obviously a Tropical Cyclone, the NHC just didn't catch it at the right time. This is where the "persistence" rule can be to the NHC's downfall of rightfully classifying tropical cyclones when they occur. This system has likely been a tropical cyclone for 12 hours or so, but it was just too late to classify once recon finally arrived.
AL, 90, 2014060700, , BEST, 0, 191N, 961W, 30, 1003, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 40, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Quoting 471. wunderkidcayman:


Ok first off that's BEST track data
If it was a TD we would of had a RENUMBER which we did not
And second thing ITS NOT A TD atleast NOT YET
NHC HAS THE FINAL SAY



It's a TD.
Quoting 503. TropicalAnalystwx13:


When the NHC initiates advisories/updates on a tropical cyclone, their information is synced with the ATCF; by having it setup this way, anybody with access to the directory would learn when they would be starting advisories (like we did). Starting this year, the data will be "hidden" so that we will have no idea when advisories are being started until they actually are.

Oh wow, that is just evil. I love it.
Alright so I get back and we finally get a convective burst, but the center is inland..

I don't appreciate your shenanigans 90L. Please exit now through Mexico..
Quoting 503. TropicalAnalystwx13:


When the NHC initiates advisories/updates on a tropical cyclone, their information is synced with the ATCF; by having it setup this way, anybody with access to the directory would learn when they would be starting advisories (like we did). Starting this year, the data will be "hidden" so that we will have no idea when advisories are being started until they actually are.


Why the change? It's not as if there's a massive world war going on and advisories on a landfalling TD will give the enemy valuable information leading to our own downfall or anything.

----

Why does spellchecker hate the word "landfalling"? >.<
Quoting 503. TropicalAnalystwx13:


When the NHC initiates advisories/updates on a tropical cyclone, their information is synced with the ATCF; by having it setup this way, anybody with access to the directory would learn when they would be starting advisories (like we did). Starting this year, the data will be "hidden" so that we will have no idea when advisories are being started until they actually are.

It honestly makes no sense, and no difference in changing the publicity of the renumbers. Only weather nerds like us keep up with it, and see the renumbers before the NHC initiates advisories anyhow. I just don't understand the harm of keeping the ATCF Renumbers public.
Quoting 508. Grothar:




It's a TD.



no its not
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

When the NHC initiates advisories/updates on a tropical cyclone, their information is synced with the ATCF; by having it setup this way, anybody with access to the directory would learn when they would be starting advisories (like we did). Starting this year, the data will be "hidden" so that we will have no idea when advisories are being started until they actually are.


Wild stab in the dark here, but I'll wager we're solely the reason for that, lol. Back to the 2005-2009 days when we didn't know until the advisory went up!
Quoting 508. Grothar:




It's a TD.

ooh. You're getting him stirred up now ;)
Quoting 505. TylerStanfield:


It appears they will. It was obviously a Tropical Cyclone, the NHC just didn't catch it at the right time. This is where the "persistence" rule can be to the NHC's downfall of rightfully classifying tropical cyclones when they occur. This system has likely been a tropical cyclone for 12 hours or so, but it was just too late to classify once recon finally arrived.

I'm not sure why they sent recon. We already know from satellite that this has a closed, well-defined center of circulation and that it's producing winds of 35 mph. Convection has been on the increase for the past few hours.


I see our little friend off of SC is blossoming some convection.
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1025 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to update the discussion of
the disturbance in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Updated: Surface observations and reports from an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the center of the low pressure
system near Vera Cruz is just inland. However, some chance for
development still remains because the center is very near the coast
and a slow and erratic motion is possible overnight. Regardless of
whether any development occurs, this system will continue to produce
gusty winds and heavy rains, along with life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides, over portions of southeastern and eastern
Mexico during the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Quoting 513. Tazmanian:




no its not

If Gro says it's a TD, then it's a TD. Simple as that. :P
Quoting 493. stormpetrol:

Who's feeling good here , the NHC, WU members or me, I know I had a few too many Coors light, but now I'm confused! :) Got to admit my fellow Brit WKC (because really Caymanian isn't acknowledged Internationally) got it right! :))

I am British and Caymanian

I think it was just too late and it's the hurricane hunters and the Air Force mantainance team fault for messin around trying to work on instruments
If they would have been out there earlier they could have flown into the LLC and we might have had TD1 from 8pm

Quoting 516. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I'm not sure why they sent recon. We already know from satellite that this has a closed, well-defined center of circulation and that it's producing winds of 35 mph. Convection has been on the increase for the past few hours.


Why isn't it a depression? Because the convection hasn't persisted for a certain time? Is that it?
Cause yeah like you said, it's got at least 35 mph winds and a closed cirrculation..
Quoting 474. Ameister12:


Taz, we all know that. It was a stupid mistake that I quickly fixed. Not a big deal.
Well, I wouldn't assume that we ALL know that.... lol... it never hurts to repeat that on the board at the beginning of the season.... newbies are still learning that kinda stuff... assuming there are newbies...
Quoting 519. Ameister12:


If Gro says it's a TD, then it's a TD. Simple as that. :P



lol he dos not work for the nhc so its not a TD
Quoting 516. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I'm not sure why they sent recon. We already know from satellite that this has a closed, well-defined center of circulation and that it's producing winds of 35 mph. Convection has been on the increase for the past few hours.

I don't know if it was just a mishandling/misjudgment of the system (probably not), but it was apparent this morning when it had convection that it was a tropical cyclone, and though it was a naked swirl this afternoon, it presented how well-defined the center of circulation was which should've told the NHC as soon as it were to pop convection, to initiate advisories. Some of the protocols such as the persistence rule should be bypassed when classifying systems in these circumstances, because of their rapid rate in which they can spin up and the limited amount of time these systems also have.
I sure looks like a TD to me

I don't remember who but I think it was KEEPEROFTHEGATE who has a point system that gives you the list of requirements needed for a storm advisory to be issued and the amount of point it has and what it needs it works well I wish we could bring it back
Quoting 516. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I'm not sure why they sent recon. We already know from satellite that this has a closed, well-defined center of circulation and that it's producing winds of 35 mph. Convection has been on the increase for the past few hours.

I think the NHC sent recon to verify if winds were TS-force or not. We already knew it had a closed circulation thanks to ASCAT and visible imagery, but it's satellite presentation wasn't the greatest. They probably hesitated on initiating advisories because of this, and due to recon's malfunctions it got delayed even longer. Had they been aware that it had TS winds beforehand, they would've started advisories in order to initiate warnings for MX in time.
Quoting 481. Civicane49:

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1025 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to update the discussion of
the disturbance in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Updated: Surface observations and reports from an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the center of the low pressure
system near Vera Cruz is just inland. However, some chance for
development still remains because the center is very near the coast
and a slow and erratic motion is possible overnight. Regardless of
whether any development occurs, this system will continue to produce
gusty winds and heavy rains, along with life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides, over portions of southeastern and eastern
Mexico during the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Franklin/Stewart

Key is "However, some chance for
development still remains because the center is very near the coast
and a slow and erratic motion is possible overnight. " If it comes offshore, I bet NHC classifies. Onshore, it is a waste of time. A system this tiny is not going to last a long time over MX.

Quoting 510. JrWeathermanFL:

Alright so I get back and we finally get a convective burst, but the center is inland..

I don't appreciate your shenanigans 90L. Please exit now through Mexico..
Where it will reinvent itself yet again as the storm C of the EPac?
I think my head is starting to spin... lol
I really don't understand... why is it such a big deal whether the mini-blob is a TD or an invest? Does it somehow magically change the impact of the storm?
Quoting 521. JrWeathermanFL:



Why isn't it a depression? Because the convection hasn't persisted for a certain time? Is that it?
Cause yeah like you said, it's got at least 35 mph winds and a closed cirrculation..

*shrugs*

The way they word the TWO makes it suggest that maybe they're not initiating because it's inland. That wouldn't make much sense considering how they initiated advisories on TD8 last year when it was moving ashore.
Quoting 514. CybrTeddy:



Wild stab in the dark here, but I'll wager we're solely the reason for that, lol. Back to the 2005-2009 days when we didn't know until the advisory went up!
That and the fact that the internet, esp. Twitter et al, does not know the meaning of TMI, not to mention rumour / unsubstantiated fact....
I gotta admit, for a mere invest, 90L has been quite interesting.
Shot of 90L from NOAA-19 a little earlier..

Looking at Alvarado radar INVEST 90L or TD INVEST 90L LLC is moving further inland centered near 18.9N 96.2W
Quoting 532. TropicalAnalystwx13:


*shrugs*

The way they word the TWO makes it suggest that maybe they're not initiating because it's inland. That wouldn't make much sense considering how they initiated advisories on TD8 last year when it was moving ashore.

Inland =|= Moving ashore.

(With a storm this tiny, and fickle... I don't think advisories would have much of an impact on preparedness. Its like putting up advisories for Miami to Ft. Lauderdale - some mesoscale complexes are larger and stronger)
Quoting 535. BahaHurican:

I gotta admit, for a mere invest, 90L has been quite interesting.

Agreed
The fact many old members on here are discussing 90L and sharing the information makes me happy :) This is exactly why I joined WU in first place. Hopefully there's more Atlantic cyclones in near future, but of course we'll see what we get this year.
Quoting 531. jeffs713:

I really don't understand... why is it such a big deal whether the mini-blob is a TD or an invest? Does it somehow magically change the impact of the storm?


TA right below you would get to update the 2014 Hurricane season on Wikipedia and add a TD to the list.

That's something.
Quoting 521. JrWeathermanFL:



Why isn't it a depression? Because the convection hasn't persisted for a certain time? Is that it?
Cause yeah like you said, it's got at least 35 mph winds and a closed cirrculation..

The lack of convection this afternoon was really a buzzkill. The NHC was looking for another convective blowup over the LLC before classifying, but by the time the convection blew up over the system, it was already on the coast. This hesitation from the NHC led to 90L making landfall before they effectively initiated advisories and posts watches and warnings, if necessary.
Looks like this little system, if it isn't forgotten by December, will be one of the storms the NHC will have to consider classifying in post-season analysis.
Quoting 531. jeffs713:

I really don't understand... why is it such a big deal whether the mini-blob is a TD or an invest? Does it somehow magically change the impact of the storm?

When a storm that we know should've been classified and never does, the blog gets mad.

Heck, we get mad when a naked swirl doesn't get a name.

So the NHC gives us a present every once in a while like Jose or a Patty.
Quoting 541. Astrometeor:



TA right below you would get to update the 2014 Hurricane season on Wikipedia and add a TD to the list.

That's something.

Eh, I understand that, but IMO, the line between a TD and an Invest is (intentionally) a very blurry one. It isn't on the same level as the line between TD and TS, or TS and Hurricane.

Just reading through some of the posts, a few people seem to be getting really frustrated over it. (that said, I WOULD like to see the NHC's thought process on the lack of a classification)
Quoting 542. TylerStanfield:


The lack of convection this afternoon was really a buzzkill. The NHC was looking for another convective blowup over the LLC before classifying, but by the time the convection blew up over the system, it was already on the coast. This hesitation from the NHC led to 90L making landfall before they effectively initiate advisories and posts watches and warnings, if necessary.
Looks like this little system, if it isn't forgotten by December, will be one of the storms the NHC will have to consider classifying in post-season analysis.


Agreed
Quoting 543. JrWeathermanFL:


When a storm that we know should've been classified and never does, the blog gets mad.

Heck, we get mad when a naked swirl doesn't get a name.

So the NHC gives us a present every once in a while like Jose or a Patty.

By the same token, sometimes we get really mad over the naked swirls getting names... like Jose and Patty.
Quoting 542. TylerStanfield:


The lack of convection this afternoon was really a buzzkill. The NHC was looking for another convective blowup over the LLC before classifying, but by the time the convection blew up over the system, it was already on the coast. This hesitation from the NHC led to 90L making landfall before they effectively initiate advisories and posts watches and warnings, if necessary.
Looks like this little system, if it isn't forgotten by December, will be one of the storms the NHC will have to consider classifying in post-season analysis.

Seems to me the convection was a result of the going ashore... i.e. friction... But as u say, post-season analysis is the 20/20 hindsight....
It doesn't seem like 90L has moved at all over the past several hours. In fact, the convective blowup is likely acting to suck in the vigorous circulation. The circulation remains right on the coastline.
Quoting 543. JrWeathermanFL:


When a storm that we know should've been classified and never does, the blog gets mad.

Heck, we get mad when a naked swirl doesn't get a name.

So the NHC gives us a present every once in a while like Jose or a Patty.

It's been 4 years and I'm still upset over Igor not being a Cat 5. I don't think I'll ever get over it. Also, that really strong low pressure area back in June of that season (92L I think) deserved to get classified.
Quoting 548. AllStar17:

It doesn't seem like 90L has moved at all over the past several hours. In fact, the convective blowup is likely acting to suck in the vigorous circulation. The circulation remains right on the coastline.

Radar says otherwise
Quoting 546. jeffs713:


By the same token, sometimes we get really mad over the naked swirls getting names... like Jose and Patty.

Which highlights how subjective TC designation is.

Convection continues to expand.

Quoting 546. jeffs713:


By the same token, sometimes we get really mad over the naked swirls getting names... like Jose and Patty.


The NHC just wants to make us happy. Half the blog says "What good'll it do? It's on the coast" The other says "That doesn't matter, it deserves a name."

So the NHC has 90L at 50% :P
Quoting 551. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Which highlights how subjective TC designation is.

Convection continues to expand.



Land based convection
Quoting 550. wunderkidcayman:


Radar says otherwise

Yep. It's clearly inland.
Who can forget when last year in the EPAC, a depression developed an eyewall and a presentation as good as a Cat 3 or something. Values supported hurricane strength or near it.

The next advisory was 45 mph... XD

It never even got to hurricane strength in an advisory. The NHC determined it did in the post.
Quoting 546. jeffs713:


By the same token, sometimes we get really mad over the naked swirls getting names... like Jose and Patty.


What else are we going to fight about until football season is here?
557. flsky
Do you know about the + button. You're padding your stats.
Quoting 545. wunderkidcayman:


Agreed


The EPAC sometimes has some cruddy storms classified. This is John at peak strength 2 years ago..
Quoting 556. Grothar:



What else are we going to fight about until football season is here?


World Cup is almost here. Should be fun. But no Landon Donovan. :/

Well...this is an easy forecast:

561. DDR
Good evening,its currently raining in Trinidad,was light to moderate earlier,falling by the buckets now.
Quoting 556. Grothar:



What else are we going to fight about until football season is here?


I can see the comments now...
"Well my team's losing to those dweebs in Alabama. The refs are totally against us. Jimmy didn't even fumble that last play. I don't think I can stand anymore of this. Sunny day here.."
Well, I guess i'm done on the blog for tonight. 90L, tropical cyclone or not, still remains a heavy rainfall threat to Mexico.

Quoting 555. JrWeathermanFL:

Who can forget when last year in the EPAC, a depression developed an eyewall and a presentation as good as a Cat 3 or something. Values supported hurricane strength or near it.

The next advisory was 45 mph... XD

It never even got to hurricane strength in an advisory. The NHC determined it did in the post.

Hurricane Kiko.
The storms be a rollin'



So apparently in 1987 this EPAC storm named Knut was a TS for 1 day and had no impacts anywhere..

The name got retired.

I have a good feeling why..
Quoting 566. JrWeathermanFL:



So apparently in 1987 this EPAC storm named Knut was a TS for 1 day and had no impacts anywhere..

The name got retired.

I have a good feeling why..



I never fell for that line!!!
Quoting 556. Grothar:



What else are we going to fight about until football season is here?


How about whether or not the desire to experience/chase a hurricane is inherently inhumane? I've been on the receiving end of that stick many times... I oughtta be an expert! :)
Another cool EPAC fact.

Amanda broke the record for strongest May hurricane.

Who did the previous record belong to? Hurricane Adolph, a name retired in 2001 because of quote "political reasons"
Quoting 533. Astrometeor:

Anyone up for chat?
I have never found the chat in the new format.
Quoting 566. JrWeathermanFL:



So apparently in 1987 this EPAC storm named Knut was a TS for 1 day and had no impacts anywhere..

The name got retired.

I have a good feeling why..
Maybe the name means something bad?
Quoting 558. JrWeathermanFL:



The EPAC sometimes has some cruddy storms classified. This is John at peak strength 2 years ago..
Ugliest ts ever!
Quoting 566. JrWeathermanFL:



So apparently in 1987 this EPAC storm named Knut was a TS for 1 day and had no impacts anywhere..

The name got retired.

I have a good feeling why..


Who knew tropical storms could invoke inadvertent innuendo? I consider myself very morbid and even I never thought of that!
Quoting 557. flsky:

Do you know about the + button. You're padding your stats.


Yeah I know + and huh
I find it hard to believe that proximity to land is what deterred the NHC from classifying 90L. There have been numerous storms that have been classified basically as they are making landfall. Tropical Depression Eight last year, as well as Tropical Storm Barry from last year (to a lesser extent) are examples. Storms in the Eastern Pacific have also been classified basically as they are moving ashore. It would have been interesting to hear the discussions earlier about 90L at the Hurricane Center.
Quoting 570. allancalderini:

I have never found the chat in the new format.Maybe the name means something bad?Ugliest ts ever!


Don't forget about Jose.

Quoting 573. AllStar17:

I find it hard to believe that proximity to land is what deterred the NHC from classifying 90L. There have been numerous storms that have been classified basically as they are making landfall. Tropical Depression Eight last year, as well as Tropical Storm Barry from last year (to a lesser extent) are examples. Storms in the Eastern Pacific have also been classified basically as they are moving ashore. It would have been interesting to hear the discussions earlier about 90L at the Hurricane Center.


I don't find myself disagreeing with them very often, but this is one instance where I feel it's warranted. Kind of like the Gulf disturbance that hit coastal Mississippi in May 2009 I feel was a tropical depression/tropical storm. I also feel like Erin's abrupt regeneration over Oklahoma was through barotropic processes.
Geez, now that it's inland, it's sustaining convection and looks like a depression. Mountains blocking or altering the trajectory of shear? It's held up since I last looked at it while at work around 7-8.




Definitely looks like a dumper for MX atm. Hope they stay safe down there. A lot of heavy convection hanging out over land. Veracruz radar doesn't show much, but it seems pretty obvious judging by satellite.
Quoting 574. AllStar17:



Don't forget about Jose.


Lol Jose was better looking.
Quoting 571. KoritheMan:



Who knew tropical storms could invoke inadvertent innuendo? I consider myself very morbid and even I never thought of that!
Lol enlighten me,I am a good boy can see nothing wrong of the name.
Quoting 577. allancalderini:

Lol Jose was better looking.Lol enlighten me,I am a good boy can see nothing wrong of the name.


If it's pronounced like it looks ("nut")... well... you have that anatomy. You extrapolate.

Unfortunately I gotta keep this at least PG-13. Much to my chagrin and denying my bestial nature. :)
Quoting 568. KoritheMan:



How about whether or not the desire to experience/chase a hurricane is inherently inhumane? I've been on the receiving end of that stick many times... I oughtta be an expert! :)


I know what the blog should do now! Go down to LA, and abduct Kori and take him to a really boring (weather-wise) place, just as a Hurricane is making landfall nearby.
Oops

Quoting 578. KoritheMan:



If it's pronounced like it looks ("nut")... well... you have that anatomy. You extrapolate.

Unfortunately I gotta keep this at least PG-13. Much to my chagrin and denying my bestial nature. :)
LOL XD you keeping it PG-13 that a first. lol and I feel dumb now that I understand.
Good evening everybody,first time this year that I enter the blog, I was having trouble changing my password to the new Blog format.
Just wondering is the Blob North of Florida will make it all the way to South Florida?, it looks very nasty!!!.
The GFS continue for so many days showing a system coming from the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula and passing over Central or South Florida, let's wait and see if the reliable GFS is correct?.
So it looks to me like it should back out to the east and then east-northeast and recurve into the BOC. Thoughts? Looks like an all MX storm.
Quoting 568. KoritheMan:



How about whether or not the desire to experience/chase a hurricane is inherently inhumane? I've been on the receiving end of that stick many times... I oughtta be an expert! :)


If you remember, I did an entire blog on why people want to be in dangerous situations. It is a perfectly normal human trait. It is what has made the human race expand and explore. I think, naturally, people associate that with a desire for destruction and danger for other people, which it is not. No one would wish harm on anyone else.
Circulation moving towards the coast again?

Something like what's happening now with 90L happened I believe in 2010 with a TD. It's remnants hit Louisiana, then moved back over water, warranted a 60% development chance, then unexpectedly made landfall before reclassification.

I'm still troubled..


The blog would hate if something like this happened in the Atlantic XP
40 mph peak at that distance...
Should be interesting to see the latest 00 gfs, but I see it's still sticking to its guns in the last run.

Quoting 582. Hurricane1956:

Just wondering is the Blob North of Florida will make it all the way to South Florida?, it looks very nasty!!!.


All the way to South Florida? No, should collapse by then. But, it's done really well to make it this far, an early SPC discussion suggested it would fall apart soon after entering Florida. For now it's going good, but I don't expect it to make it too much farther down the peninsula.
This TD-to-be appears to be quasi-meandering at the moment, if anything just looking at the last quarter of the last frame it's steaming due Cayman-east.
Quoting 585. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Circulation moving towards the coast again?


Don't give me hope ok!! I feel like if I am in a roller coaster,My emotions can take another hit. 90L better decide to be upgrade or die.


Issuance chance = 95%
Quoting 584. Grothar:



If you remember, I did an entire blog on why people want to be in dangerous situations. It is a perfectly normal human trait. It is what has made the human race expand and explore. I think, naturally, people associate that with a desire for destruction and danger for other people, which it is not. No one would wish harm on anyone else.


I would be perfectly okay with experiencing a major hurricane if I was on an uninhabited island. It's not the destruction of property that mesmerizes me, it's the storm itself.

I still don't feel bad for wanting to be in the path of something I know is going to be destructive to other people. I did not cause the destruction.

If people think that makes me evil, I will revel in that label.

tl;dr: I agree with you.
Quoting 566. JrWeathermanFL:



So apparently in 1987 this EPAC storm named Knut was a TS for 1 day and had no impacts anywhere..

The name got retired.

I have a good feeling why..


any other storms that have been retired just because of a bad name... thats gotta be the only one
Quoting 588. GatorWX:

Should be interesting to see the latest 00 gfs, but I see it's still sticking to its guns in the last run.




I think that's the same system the Euro's been showing. Except it's a lot farther west with it. A LOT.
Quoting 594. nwobilderburg:



any other storms that have been retired just because of a bad name... thats gotta be the only one


Adolph was subsequent to its use 2001 for political reasons.

cough Hitler cough
Quoting 593. KoritheMan:



I would be perfectly okay with experiencing a major hurricane if I was on an uninhabited island. It's not the destruction of property that mesmerizes me, it's the storm itself.

I still don't feel bad for wanting to be in the path of something I know is going to be destructive to other people. I did not cause the destruction.

If people think that makes me evil, I will revel in that label.

tl;dr: I agree with you.
You should not care what other think of you. Be happy with your ideas and defend.
Quoting 581. allancalderini:

LOL XD you keeping it PG-13 that a first. lol and I feel dumb now that I understand.


Yeah. It hurts. More than you'll ever know. :(
Quoting 597. allancalderini:

You should not care what other think of you. Be happy with your ideas and defend.


I've had to learn that over the last year or so, believe me. lol
Quoting 596. KoritheMan:



Adolph was subsequent to its use 2001 for political reasons.

cough Hitler cough
I have an ick though, How could Alma had been retired meanwhile Agatha that has been the worst if not of the worst storm in history for Guatemala wasn;t retired?
Quoting 599. KoritheMan:



I've had to learn that over the last year or so, believe me. lol


Wait. With what statement?
This?

Quoting 597. allancalderini:

You should not care what other think of you.


Or this?

Quoting 597. allancalderini:

Be happy with your ideas and defend.


Because I thought you were Mr. No Emotions on the first statement.
602. DDR
Feels good being drenched,its been so long since we got decent rain,will probably end up with 2+ inches in most parts of Trinidad.
Quoting 600. allancalderini:

I have an ick though, How could Alma had been retired meanwhile Agatha that has been the worst if not of the worst storm in history for Guatemala wasn;t retired?


Potentially for the same reasons Gordon (1994) and Hanna (2008) were not retired.
Quoting 601. Astrometeor:



Wait. With what statement?
This?



Or this?



Because I thought you were Mr. No Emotions on the first statement.


Both, actually. I didn't start off being the tough/not bothered by anything guy I am now. That took a lot of work. A LOT.
Quoting 594. nwobilderburg:



any other storms that have been retired just because of a bad name... thats gotta be the only one

Fefa-pronunciation
Fico-Hawaii whined about $200,000 losses
Adele-Rolled in the deep
Quoting 596. KoritheMan:



Adolph was subsequent to its use 2001 for political reasons.

cough Hitler cough


I don't think I'm getting your hint. Do we need to bring up the sociologist's study about bias towards hurricane names here?

Quoting 578. KoritheMan:



If it's pronounced like it looks ("nut")... well... you have that anatomy. You extrapolate.

Unfortunately I gotta keep this at least PG-13. Much to my chagrin and denying my bestial nature. :)


It's pronounced K-noot. It is and old Scandinavian name.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I think that's the same system the Euro's been showing. Except it's a lot farther west with it. A LOT.


Oh, I see, it pulls it up out of the carib. I haven't paid that close of attention until tonight. I just saw what was posted here and took it with a grain of salt. Euro does the same? I haven't checked it out yet. I'm so behind with everything to try to make any statements, but at least there's a viable entity down there to spike my interest lol. Been a boring winter and spring here in sw FL. Not so interesting meteorologically.
So Knut was the name of some kings and a Kenyan Radio Station..
Quoting 605. JrWeathermanFL:


Fefa-pronunciation
Fico-Hawaii whined about $200,000 losses
Adele-Rolled in the deep
Hurricane Iva was retired too without much of a reason.
Quoting 607. Grothar:



It's pronounced K-noot. It is and old Scandinavian name.


I figured the Knut part.
I still wouldn't give that name to a storm though lol.
Maybe in the West Pacific, but not here.
Quoting 607. Grothar:



It's pronounced K-noot. It is and old Scandinavian name.


Well don't I look like a fool.

Guess that's what I get for having my mind in the gutter, perhaps? LOL
in 1990, hurricane Klaus was retired after causing 11 deaths and over $1 million in damage
thats another borderline one
Tell me that doesn't look good

Quoting 608. GatorWX:



Oh, I see, it pulls it up out of the carib. I haven't paid that close of attention until tonight. I just saw what was posted here and took it with a grain of salt. Euro does the same? I haven't checked it out yet. I'm so behind with everything to try to make any statements, but at least there's a viable entity down there to spike my interest lol. Been a boring winter and spring here in sw FL. Not so interesting meteorologically.


I first started noticing it two or so days ago when my dad showed me a model run of the Euro that had a tropical storm hitting Louisiana. That naturally perked me up quite a bit because hurricanes are teh sexy.

It unfortunately dropped it after that run, but the paradigm has been for it to move out of the northwestern Caribbean Sea into the southern Gulf of Mexico.

I presume it comes from the tropical wave approaching the southern Lesser Antilles. It's been very consistent in pulling a lower-tropospheric vortmax out of the Caribbean. Remains to be seen if shear will ease up enough to allow development, or whether or not the wave even moves into the Gulf.
Quoting 591. allancalderini:

Don't give me hope ok!! I feel like if I am in a roller coaster,My emotions can take another hit. 90L better decide to be upgrade or die.


You have WU mail....
Quoting 614. Grothar:

Tell me that doesn't look good




It doesn't look good for the NHC, because that's clearly a TD making some sort of a landfall attempt.
Quoting 614. Grothar:

Tell me that doesn't look good




That doesn't look good.
Minor 3.9 quake reported off the northern coast of Molokai. Felt a small jolt from Honolulu.

Lot of iffy storms in the South Pacific that got retired..
Susan for 1 death and $100,000...many more just like that.
Quoting 617. Astrometeor:



It doesn't look good for the NHC, because that's clearly a TD making some sort of a landfall attempt.
I am going out of the limb and say this a ts.
Quoting Grothar:
Tell me that doesn't look good



Looks like a TS honestly. It's held its own through the evening quite well. How ya doin Gro?
Quoting KoritheMan:


I first started noticing it two or so days ago when my dad showed me a model run of the Euro that had a tropical storm hitting Louisiana. That naturally perked me up quite a bit because hurricanes are teh sexy.

It unfortunately dropped it after that run, but the paradigm has been for it to move out of the northwestern Caribbean Sea into the southern Gulf of Mexico.

I presume it comes from the tropical wave approaching the southern Lesser Antilles. It's been very consistent in pulling a lower-tropospheric vortmax out of the Caribbean. Remains to be seen if shear will ease up enough to allow development, or whether or not the wave even moves into the Gulf.


It may hit a little pocket of sweetness as is commonly the case this time of year. The GFS has certainly been consistent. All my Euro links are pretty awful, so I tend to not be on top of that one. Gfs has shown at system in nearly the identical spot for awhile.
How bout we call 90L, TD 0?
Quoting 622. GatorWX:



Looks like a TS honestly. It's held its own through the evening quite well. How ya doin Gro?

It may hit a little pocket of sweetness as is commonly the case this time of year. The GFS has certainly been consistent. All my Euro links are pretty awful, so I tend to not be on top of that one. Gfs has shown at system in nearly the identical spot for awhile.


I'd honestly be more inclined to lean a little west of the GFS given the poleward bias the model has with transferring heat to troughs.

Track is still unimportant at this stage.
According to Alvarado radar LLC becoming disorganised as it moves W bound what ever is left of the LLC seem to be located around 18.5N 96.8W moving W-WSW
New watch out. Will update when info comes out.




URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 251
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 1125 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST OF FORT SILL OKLAHOMA TO 15 MILES NORTH OF BARTLESVILLE
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
If this thing becomes Arthur... ._.

Arthurs seem to have a habit of forming really close to land, then dying..
At least it's something!!! lol


Quoting KoritheMan:


I'd honestly be more inclined to lean a little west of the GFS given the poleward bias the model has with transferring heat to troughs.

Track is still unimportant at this stage.


Until there is at least a little bit of something there, I'm hesitant to put much faith into the models. It is early June and there's a whole lot of obstacles to overcome.
Quoting 629. GatorWX:



Until there is at least a little bit of something there, I'm hesitant to put much faith into the models. It is early June and there's a whole lot of obstacles to overcome.


The takeaway is that the western Caribbean MIGHT start becoming more favorable for development late next week.
Quoting 614. Grothar:
Tell me that doesn't look good



Third day of MSC breaking out, this time dropping down to TX instead of going East. Don't
think I've ever seen this pattern before. Gonna go look up my Jet Streams and Loops.
Quoting 631. redwagon:

Quoting 614. Grothar:
Tell me that doesn't look good



Third day of MSC breaking out, this time dropping down to TX instead of going East. Don't
think I've ever seen this pattern before. Gonna go look up my Jet Streams and Loops.


I was just going to post this. Very strange pattern, even for this time of year

633. DDR
ABsolutly drenching rain in Trinidad,we're going from drought to flood in a few hours if this persists,too bad radar is not working.
Quoting 618. AllStar17:



That doesn't look good.




grrrrrrrrrr!
Quoting 622. GatorWX:



Looks like a TS honestly. It's held its own through the evening quite well. How ya doin Gro?

It may hit a little pocket of sweetness as is commonly the case this time of year. The GFS has certainly been consistent. All my Euro links are pretty awful, so I tend to not be on top of that one. Gfs has shown at system in nearly the identical spot for awhile.


Hey, Gator. Where you been hiding?
The 0z GFS shows an Andrea redux.


Quoting 636. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The 0z GFS shows an Andrea redux.





They've had the same thing for a couple of days.

Quoting 634. Grothar:





grrrrrrrrrr!


:P

Oh...and the convection is warming now!!!
I know this is not the place to ask this right now, but can you guys tell me a good city to stay in FL..
Guys I will take a 3 week vacationfrom wunderground. See you guys later on June 29.
Quoting 639. saltydog1327:

I know this is not the place to ask this right now, but can you guys tell me a good city to stay in FL..


Pensacola.

You didn't say it had to be peninsular Florida.
Quoting 640. HurricaneAndre:

Guys I will take a 3 week vacationfrom wunderground. See you guys later on June 29.


Later. Even I feel like taking a break from this place sometimes.
Quoting 638. AllStar17:



:P

Oh...and the convection is warming now!!!


Look at this. Looks like another storm a'brewin in the EPAC and the Invest/TD looks good

Quoting 632. GrotharI was just going to post this. Very strange pattern, even for this time of year.

Today's MSC envelopes what we used to call Tornado Alley before it moved East about 6 years ago.
Then Alley became Tornado Belt, moving from a start point in Alley and plowing all the way to the
East coast. I looked at the Jet Streams, and they don't seem to be a suspect in this new phenomenon.
Judging from the 10:25 Special TWO, Forecasters Franklin and Stewart were on duty. If I'm not mistaken, Stewart is a lot more bullish on classifying storms and upping the percentages. Well, I guess we know who won that arguing match! Stewart wanted to make it Arthur probably.
Quoting 643. Grothar:



Look at this. Looks like another storm a'brewin in the EPAC and the Invest/TD looks good




Yes...but no mention by the NHC. Man...they are really dropping the ball! Someone better wake them up.

...and you know I'm always up for making more graphics!
Quoting 645. AllStar17:

Judging from the 10:25 Special TWO, Forecasters Franklin and Stewart were on duty. If I'm not mistaken, Stewart is a lot more bullish on classifying storms and upping the percentages. Well, I guess we know who won that arguing match! Stewart wanted to make it Arthur probably.


James probably got overly verbose and confused Stewart. He's adept at those big words, you know.
Quoting 646. AllStar17:



Yes...but no mention by the NHC. Man...they are really dropping the ball! Someone better wake them up.


Then there's that swirl off the East Coast from the MCV.
Quoting 646. AllStar17:



Yes...but no mention by the NHC. Man...they are really dropping the ball! Someone better wake them up.


I'll see what I can do.
Quoting 643. Grothar:



Look at this. Looks like another storm a'brewin in the EPAC and the Invest/TD looks good



No surprise there

Quoting 643. Grothar:



Look at this. Looks like another storm a'brewin in the EPAC and the Invest/TD looks good


Looks that this aoi might become Cristina and possible a hurricane alone the way.
Quoting 647. KoritheMan:



James probably got overly verbose and confused Stewart. He's adept at those big words, you know.
Stewart is awesome if he was the only one in the shift I am 50% sure that it would had been upgrade into a td.
Quoting 652. allancalderini:

Looks that this aoi might become Cristina and possible a hurricane alone the way.Stewart is awesome if he was the only one in the shift I am 50% sure that it would had been upgrade into a td.


They'll probably do that dumb post-season analysis stuff, at which point it gets rightfully classified... without a name.

Bugs the **** out of me. >_>
Earlier? (not really)...

(This is the real caption...Dr. Rick Knabb, center, director of the National Hurricane Center, Stacy Stewart, right, senior hurricane specialist, and James Franklin, chief hurricane specialist, track Tropical Storm Isaac at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Monday, Aug. 2, 2012. Tropical Storm Isaac targeted a broad swath of the Gulf Coast on Monday and had New Orleans in its crosshairs, bearing down just ahead of the seventh anniversary of Hurricane Katrina. (AP Photo/Alan Diaz))


Quoting 654. AllStar17:

Earlier? (not really)...

(This is the real caption...Dr. Rick Knabb, center, director of the National Hurricane Center, Stacy Stewart, right, senior hurricane specialist, and James Franklin, chief hurricane specialist, track Tropical Storm Isaac at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Monday, Aug. 2, 2012. Tropical Storm Isaac targeted a broad swath of the Gulf Coast on Monday and had New Orleans in its crosshairs, bearing down just ahead of the seventh anniversary of Hurricane Katrina. (AP Photo/Alan Diaz))





I'm more interested in the contents of the bag lying on the desk next to Dr. Knabb.
Quoting 655. KoritheMan:



I'm more interested in the contents of the bag lying on the desk next to Dr. Knabb.


Looks like Starbucks takeout to me.
NHC blew it, clearly a TD, likely a TS. In the end, it will matter to only those like us who really care. Warnings are in place for rainfall and effects, classification means next to nothing. Dropping it to 50% is crazy, makes zero sense. Those in harms way know what to expect in theory, but no doubt in after season this gets upgraded. If this wobbles back East could still get classified by NHC, highly unlikely though. This is the best it's looked and yet the percentage goes down. It's all conjecture at this point, but NHC seems to have been too late to correct their error. Fun none the less for all of us who are chomping at the bit for some action.
The pressure at Veracruz fell to 1001.9 mb at 2140Z yesterday. Quite respectable for an invest. However note that the station altitude is 16 meters and the pressure is not sea level corrected.
Quoting 656. Astrometeor:



Looks like Starbucks takeout to me.


Good! I said they need to wake up! Maybe some coffee would work!
Quoting 656. Astrometeor:



Looks like Starbucks takeout to me.


I zoomed in a little. It actually does.

They obviously needed a lot of caffeine to meet the demands of morning rush hour at the NHC. :)
Quoting 651. wunderkidcayman:


No surprise there




You are so kind.
Quoting 649. Grothar:



I'll see what I can do.


You better call it in, the secretary at NHC can text Beven et. al.

Maybe... all that flooding Colorado got.. then froze up hard in the crevices and niches, and is now thawing
out and moving those MSCs around? CO used to be the instigator in Tornado Alley outbreaks. The Rockies
across all three states seem to be the sudden precipator of these MSCs.
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, Gator. Where you been hiding?


Hey bud. Just working, fishing, living. Hasn't been much for me to get excited about. Glad it's summer though! No tourists around, beautiful girls at the beach everyday,cold beer just has that much more significance and I finally can get my tropical fix. I feel so rusty right now though. How you been?
Quoting 633. DDR:

ABsolutly drenching rain in Trinidad,we're going from drought to flood in a few hours if this persists,too bad radar is not working.


I thought something was wrong with my browser. Apparently, its already flooding in Tunapuna.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The 0z GFS shows an Andrea redux.




Well it looks like a June TS!
The sea level corrected pressure is 1004.2 mb.
Quoting 663. GatorWX:



Hey bud. Just working, fishing, living. Hasn't been much for me to get excited about. Glad it's summer though! No tourists around, beautiful girls at the beach everyday,cold beer just has that much more significance and I finally can get my tropical fix. I feel so rusty right now though. How you been?


Massive heart attack, recuperating and too old to watch at the beach unless I take a few extra pills.
Alvarado radar shows 90L LLC is now gone dead is no more
If NHC classifies in next release we shall all breathe and call them experts who make the tough calls even if it's a tough decision. Knowing they hang on our every word of sage advise, it's all but a given. :) If not, it's wait for after season review where we can all say, "I knew it!" Either way, NHC should be employing the majority of us.
Quoting 656. Astrometeor:



Looks like Starbucks takeout to me.


Now I'm interested in trying to decipher what that graphic is on the screen next to the coffee. Looks kind of like some isoheights overlaid with precipitation but I can't tell.
Wow, this still looks so strong.



Well, everybody. All this excitement has been too much for me. A landfalling swirl has taken its toll. Nite!
Quoting 671. Grothar:

Wow, this still looks so strong.



Well, everybody. All this excitement has been too much for me. A landfalling swirl has taken its toll. Nite!


I've got you beat! Have a great evening.
The blob of convection that had blown up when 90L was making landfall is now dissipating and being sheared off Eastward
Quoting 672. AllStar17:



I've got you beat! Have a great evening.



Maybe it's because I've been reading Jeff's archives for the 2009 season, but somehow... I immediately guessed that was Erika. And it was.
Quoting 674. KoritheMan:



Maybe it's because I've been reading Jeff's archives for the 2009 season, but somehow... I immediately guessed that was Erika. And it was.


Correct.
Q: Deep Sea Rising: If this wobbles back East could still get classified by NHC, highly unlikely though.

If you view a BOC system as a bicycle wheel level to the water, spinning (and this one has EPAC blood)
as it approaches the mountains around Veracruz, it's possible for it to push off those mountains and
back into the BOC. BOC systems do all kinds of crazy things. Some form right in the middle and do endless
loops (Nate). The ones that cross the Yuc and re-group in the BOC usually strengthen up and hit Tampico.

But 90, who formed from a broad WBOC circulation, still has that pan-basin broad low coc. It might re-enter, if DMAX offers other new convection. Euro sent it up the coast. Guess we'll know in the AM if he's RIP or rebuilding. EPAC is tossing so much energy around both basins, lot of possibilities.
and moving on to the North.
Looks like a freaking tropical storm now.



Broad circulation though.

Quoting Grothar:


Massive heart attack, recuperating and too old to watch at the beach unless I take a few extra pills.


Oy! Since last time I talked to you? (Christmas-ish) Sorry guy! Glad you're here typing and you're still quippy, both good signs. No, but really, I hope things are better now. That sucks!
WKC and a few others, early in the day, noticed the LLC seemingly eject NW ward and in theory ending a naming. We've seen this many times before and it was clear as day on satellite. But, there was a second LLC that took hold and eventually grew. Is this common? I've been following this all day and has been quite intriguing. This ejection of LLC was quite evident. Was there another LLC? Or did another one quickly form?
Quoting 677. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Looks like a freaking tropical storm now.



Broad circulation though.




Deserves a mention...
Quoting 680. AllStar17:



Deserves a mention...
Nop no mention.
Quoting redwagon:
Quoting 632. GrotharI was just going to post this. Very strange pattern, even for this time of year.

Today's MSC envelopes what we used to call Tornado Alley before it moved East about 6 years ago.
Then Alley became Tornado Belt, moving from a start point in Alley and plowing all the way to the
East coast. I looked at the Jet Streams, and they don't seem to be a suspect in this new phenomenon.


I've noticed it too. Most of the action has certainly shifted east. Anomalous jet stream patterns? I know I've noticed a very pronounced change in the jet stream over the past three to four years. I think Professor Francis may really be on to something. :( During the same time however, activity regarding tornadoes has, for the most part, been quite minimal to average.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 070546
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT JUN 7 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Surface observations indicate that a well-defined low pressure
system has remained nearly stationary near Vera Cruz, Mexico. During
the past few hours, associated thunderstorm activity has decreased
significantly, and unfavorable upper-level winds and proximity to
land should inhibit any further development of this disturbance.
However, this system will continue to produce gusty winds and heavy
rains, along with life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, over
portions of southeastern and eastern Mexico during the next day or
two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


$$
Forecaster Stewart
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
122 AM EDT SAT JUN 7 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
WHICH WAS A ECMWF/GFS BLEND. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED INLAND MEXICO NEAR
19N96W. HOWEVER...THE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT E-SE 20-30 KT WITH
SEAS OF 8-11 FT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS MORNING. WITH
PERSISTENT CONVECTION THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING TO 15-20 KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 4-7 FT. WINDS WILL
FURTHER DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT/SEAS 3-5 FT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ON SUN. HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 27N84W
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO THE NE TX COAST. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL MEANDER OVER THE NE WATERS THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE
ALSO QUASI-STATIONARY TO THE NE TX COAST. SOUTHERLY 10-15 KT
RETURN FLOW OVER THE NW WATERS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE 15-20 KT
ON SUN EVENING...WITH THESE CONDITIONS SPREADING E ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS W OF 89W ON MON NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THEREAFTER
SUPPORTING 10-15 KT FLOW THROUGH TUE NIGHT...AND 5-10 KT FLOW
ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF ON WED AND THU.
Have a great night, everybody!

Surface observations indicate that a well-defined low pressure
system has remained nearly stationary near Vera Cruz, Mexico. During
the past few hours, associated thunderstorm activity has decreased
significantly, and unfavorable upper-level winds and proximity to
land should inhibit any further development of this disturbance.
However, this system will continue to produce gusty winds and heavy
rains, along with life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, over
portions of southeastern and eastern Mexico during the next day or
two.
It was a nice effort, 90L, but you won't operationally be considered a tropical cyclone.

We'll see what post-season analysis says.
Quoting 686. TropicalAnalystwx13:

It was a nice effort, 90L, but you won't operationally be considered a tropical cyclone.

We'll see what post-season analysis says.


Don't rub salt in the wound, Cody. I'm already on my last legs.
Quoting 687. KoritheMan:



I'm already on my last legs.


Go buy yourself another set, then.
And the nail gets hammered, we shall have to wait 20%. Next week could peak interest again as a mess of a system borders on invest or TD status and drives conjecture on WU, the place where people care, and more should; but we are too entertained with trivial crap that keeps us from really thinking.
Night all.

If I ever get to the National Hurricane Center, I'll classify a system like this. Even if the other forecasters don't agree with my decision to do that, at that point they'll have no choice but to continue advisories until it dissipates.

Ha! Take that! I win!

AHAHAHAHA

*goes insane*
Quoting 653. KoritheMan:



They'll probably do that dumb post-season analysis stuff, at which point it gets rightfully classified... without a name.

Bugs the **** out of me. >_>
It might or it might not,but I hate when they do that.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It was a nice effort, 90L, but you won't operationally be considered a tropical cyclone.

We'll see what post-season analysis says.


I was just going to post something very similar, but i guess I'll settle for this: good night 90 and good night all. Gro, truly glad you're back. It's not the same without ya! Night..
Quoting 688. Astrometeor:



Go buy yourself another set, then.


Quiet.
Quoting 691. KoritheMan:

If I ever get to the National Hurricane Center, I'll classify a system like this. Even if the other forecasters don't agree with my decision to do that, at that point they'll have no choice but to continue advisories until it dissipates.

Ha! Take that! I win!

AHAHAHAHA

*goes insane*


NHC through the NSA has classified you as a tropical lunatic. SPC is as high as you'll ever ascend. Look forward to seeing you live on TWC. :)
Quoting 691. KoritheMan:

If I ever get to the National Hurricane Center, I'll classify a system like this. Even if the other forecasters don't agree with my decision to do that, at that point they'll have no choice but to continue advisories until it dissipates.

Ha! Take that! I win!

AHAHAHAHA

*goes insane*
You want an Advil?
Quoting 692. allancalderini:

It might or it might not,but I hate when they do that.


This one still irritates me as well:

"NHC did not issue any forecasts on this system as a subtropical cyclone, in accord with NWS Directive 10-601, which allows marginal subtropical cyclones to be handled operationally as marine features.

Link"
Quoting DeepSeaRising:
And the nail gets hammered, we shall have to wait 20%. Next week could peak interest again as a mess of a system borders on invest or TD status and drives conjecture on WU, the place where people care, and more should; but we are too entertained with trivial crap that keeps us from really thinking.


Not sure I agree with the latter buddy but enjoy your Friday night/Saturday morning. Keep thinking......
Quoting 691. KoritheMan:

If I ever get to the National Hurricane Center, I'll classify a system like this. Even if the other forecasters don't agree with my decision to do that, at that point they'll have no choice but to continue advisories until it dissipates.

Ha! Take that! I win!

AHAHAHAHA

*goes insane*
Btw you might not get it your way. I believe what happen in this type of situation is what the supreme court do they put up to vote and depending on the result it might or might not be classified.
Quoting 697. KoritheMan:



This one still irritates me as well:

"NHC did not issue any forecasts on this system as a subtropical cyclone, in accord with NWS Directive 10-601, which allows marginal subtropical cyclones to be handled operationally as marine features.

Link"
In my opinion it will be always Nestor for me.
Quoting 700. allancalderini:

In my opinion it will be always Nestor for me.


If a system meets the requirements of a tropical or subtropical cyclone, you don't withhold on classifying it because it's marginal, short-lived, or running into land. Unless you want to completely rewrite the meteorological textbooks.
Quoting 698. GatorWX:



Not sure I agree with the latter buddy but enjoy your Friday night/Saturday morning. Keep thinking......


It has been said, and I agree, with the information available, we in the West are the best entertained and the least informed in all of the world. We are now behind all of Eastern Europe, Vietnam, almost all of South America educationally. The rise of the web and the decline in intellectualism mirror each other. Our moral and educational decline is sad and will define the next century. Manifest destiny is just that.
Quoting 701. KoritheMan:



If a system meets the requirements of a tropical or subtropical cyclone, you don't withhold on classifying it because it's marginal, short-lived, or running into land. Unless you want to completely rewrite the meteorological textbooks.
I have always thought like you. I remember I was happy when they decide to upgrade Arthur in 2008 even when it was making landfall. A cyclone should be classified if it fulfilled the requirements of an upgrade no matter if its an hour before landfall or 15 minutes.
Quoting 682. GatorWX:
I've noticed it too. Most of the action has certainly shifted east. Anomalous jet stream patterns? I know I've noticed a very pronounced change in the jet stream over the past three to four years. I think Professor Francis may really be on to something. :( During the same time however, activity regarding tornadoes has, for the most part, been quite minimal to average.

Glad to see you back...
Quoting 702. DeepSeaRising:



It has been said, and I agree, with the information available, we in the West are the best entertained and the least informed in all of the world. We are now behind all of Eastern Europe, Vietnam, almost all of South America educationally. The rise of the web and the decline in intellectualism mirror each other. Our moral and educational decline is sad and will define the next century. Manifest destiny is just that.


You're correct, but it doesn't necessarily apply to all, and it certainly doesn't apply to most here. The dumbing of western culture is very evident and relative, but at the same time, I believe a lot of it is somewhat of an illusiion. I truly believe that over time social media will be immense help in spreading intellectualism and wisdom. By default, there are people with lesser and greater intelligence, but now, through social media, we have a glimpse and are aware of the ignorance, stupidity and lack of knowledge of some. It's no longer hidden. Therefor we take these glimpses of ignorance and place a label of dumbing on the masses when that isn't necessarily the case. Those who know, know and those who don't, don't. That would be the case regardless of era. It seems, however, many do become preoccupied with silly ignorant topics that have no relevance to life and reason. Science and math, please make a comeback!
Kori, turn that flab into fab, join the AF and use that high meteorology IQ to do something your passionate about. Time waits on no one. The time is now. You would excel.
Quoting 706. DeepSeaRising:

Kori, turn that flab into fab, join the AF and use that high meteorology IQ to do something your passionate about. Time waits on no one. The time is now. You would excel.


I can't go into the Air Force without getting my GED. I'm trying as hard as I possibly can do that in a timely manner.

Also, [not much] flab. I work out. :P
Quoting 704. redwagon:

Quoting 682. GatorWX:
I've noticed it too. Most of the action has certainly shifted east. Anomalous jet stream patterns? I know I've noticed a very pronounced change in the jet stream over the past three to four years. I think Professor Francis may really be on to something. :( During the same time however, activity regarding tornadoes has, for the most part, been quite minimal to average.

Glad to see you back...



Glad to be back with all these interesting model runs, especially the doom and gloom predicted for FL by the GFS. :p Glad to see you here still too redwagon!
Quoting 705. GatorWX:



You're correct, but it doesn't necessarily apply to all, and it certainly doesn't apply to most here. The dumbing of western culture is very evident and relative, but at the same time, I believe a lot of it is somewhat of an illusiion. I truly believe that over time social media will be immense help in spreading intellectualism and wisdom. By default, there are people with lesser and greater intelligence, but now, through social media, we have a glimpse and are aware of the ignorance, stupidity and lack of knowledge of some. It's no longer hidden. Therefor we take these glimpses of ignorance and place a label of dumbing on the masses when that isn't necessarily the case. Those who who, know and those who don't, don't. That would be the case regardless of era. It seems, however, many do become preoccupied with silly ignorant topics that have no relevance to life and reason. Science a

The East is crushing us in Math and Science. Our top 2% in those subjects holds the bar though. We are the best. I agree with you in large in that we are using this new age to maintain the status quo. Only that though. Our society now can only be described as Romanesque. That term has a long term implication. And that is not a good one. With our military, our projection, as a world, is a world headed towards tribulation. And quickly at that.
Quoting 708. GatorWX:



Glad to be back with all these interesting model runs, especially the doom and gloom predicted for FL by the GFS. :p Glad to see you here still too redwagon!


I have developed a kin for lobster/crab stuffed swai/basa. I BBQ it on buttered foil and it just crisps
up the whole dish. Swai is the ultimate fish to wrap stuff around. Sweet, doesent fall apart.
Quoting 707. KoritheMan:



I can't go into the Air Force without getting my GED. I'm trying as hard as I possibly can do that in a timely manner.

Also, [not much] flab. I work out. :P


GED, you will have zero problem with that. I have a GED and had a very high score, you'll crush it. I saw your picture, your in good shape. And while I am straight Kori, that's one sexy brain you've got mate. :) Everyone here is rooting for you.
Quoting 710. redwagon:



I have developed a kin for lobster/crab stuffed swai/basa. I BBQ it on buttered foil and it just crisps
up the whole dish. Swai is the ultimate fish to wrap stuff around. Sweet, doesent fall apart.


:) I'm sure I've had it. I'm more of a local seafood guy...and salmon, but I'm open to it all. Sole and the flounders work well too. I usually cook what sells. I ran a very nicely marbled French cut pork chop with a apple sage beurre blanc tonight. Love me some good food! I thought I was signing off an hour ago.... lol
Quoting 709. DeepSeaRising:




That seems quite evident. I try to keep it in the back of my mind for the most part.


This North/South axis of day 3 MSC was completely unforecasted. It literally stretches from Canada to Mexico.
Ok, I'm out. Getting quiet here and there's a great movie on CC to help me fall asleep. Night all.
Quoting 711. DeepSeaRising:



GED, you will have zero problem with that. I have a GED and had a very high score, you'll crush it. I saw your picture, your in good shape. And while I am straight Kori, that's one sexy brain you've got mate. :) Everyone here is rooting for you.


I took it in 2012 and failed horribly. 5 out of 50 math questions right. My aunt was NOT a proficient math teacher (yes, I was homeschooled... although in and of itself I scarcely consider it a bad thing... it's caused me to be more logical and open-minded than most people, but now I'm digressing). I've had to essentially teach myself. I've come far.

Planning to pick up a GED study guide at the library to see what I need to study and what I shouldn't bother with.
Q: Gator: we can talk fish tomorrow, it's late :)
Quoting 716. KoritheMan:



I took it in 2012 and failed horribly. 5 out of 50 math questions right. My aunt was NOT a proficient math teacher (yes, I was homeschooled... although in and of itself I scarcely consider it a bad thing... it's caused me to be more logical and open-minded than most people, but now I'm digressing). I've had to essentially teach myself. I've come far.

Planning to pick up a GED study guide at the library to see what I need to study and what I shouldn't bother with.

You have problems in math blows my mind. Your potential is high and what you've been shown in parantage is sadly low. Not your fault and nothing you can't overcome. With different parents you'd be going for your doctorate, with what you've been given it's a teach yourself struggle. You control your destiny, and that is a story yet to be written. Kori we see your potential, and I believe we all wish to see you reach it.
719. flsky
GED is a start to get you where you want to go. I went that route and ended w/an Master's degree many years ago. I think the key is trying to avoid life's distractions and keep focused on your goal. Good luck!
Quoting 716. KoritheMan:



I took it in 2012 and failed horribly. 5 out of 50 math questions right. My aunt was NOT a proficient math teacher (yes, I was homeschooled... although in and of itself I scarcely consider it a bad thing... it's caused me to be more logical and open-minded than most people, but now I'm digressing). I've had to essentially teach myself. I've come far.

Planning to pick up a GED study guide at the library to see what I need to study and what I shouldn't bother with.
Q: Kori

Borg coming after you. Choose wisely.
721. flsky
Ponce Inlet in ECFL is fun - lots to do also in the immediate area. If you're artsy, you can head to New Smyrna Beach which is south or if you're a race fan you can hit Daytona. If you want more info shoot me a WU email.

Quoting 639. saltydog1327:

I know this is not the place to ask this right now, but can you guys tell me a good city to stay in FL..
Quoting 713. GatorWX:



That seems quite evident. I try to keep it in the back of my mind for the most part.


In the back of your mind is where it lies, and that is good. But, like a thief in the night, this future shall come on most unaware. End of days is not just a movie but something that is coming at a time unknown but to the Father himself. The writing is on the wall, but is in a language most can not understand.
theres never any night bloggin here :(
724. ryang
Where is Pottery? Trinidad getting a good drenching from this T wave (all of it staying to the south of me).



Btw...could this be the catalyst for what the GFS/FIM (and the EURO was) are developing in the western Caribbean?
Afghanistan flash flood 'kills 50' in Baghlan province
BBC, 7 June 2014 Last updated at 09:34 GMT

Climate change helps seas disturb Japanese war dead
Matt McGrath By Matt McGrath Environment correspondent, BBC News, 7 June 2014 Last updated at 01:59 GMT
Rising sea levels have disturbed the skeletons of soldiers killed on the Marshall Islands during World War Two.
Speaking at UN climate talks in Bonn, the Island's foreign minister said that high tides had exposed one grave with 26 dead.
The minister said the bones were most likely those of Japanese troops.
Driven by global warming, waters in this part of the Pacific have risen faster than the global average. ...


--------------------------------



SYNOPSIS for Europe from Estofex:

A cyclonic vortex will remain located over the eastern Atlantic, with strong southerly flow simulated on its forward flank. An "EML" is advected towards the north (France, BENELUX, W Germany) from N Africa. A cut-off low will slowly translate from S Sweden towards the Baltic states during the forecast period. In between of these two aforementioned features, a ridge will stretch from the Mediterranean towards central Europe. There will be two foci for thunderstorm initiation - the first being in a belt from S France towards S England and the second being much larger, spanning much of Scandinavia towards the Balkans and Turkey. In between, more quiescent conditions should prevail.

Turkey really gets a lot of rain these weeks (combined with regional flooding). Which is very good because their severe drought should be history by now. Vacationers in this country (and I was one of them one month ago) won't be happy though ;-)

First (mild) day of our heatwave in Germany. It's noon and already 29C/[edit: 84,2F] in my backyard. And this is just the beginning. But people won't complain yet :-). A lot of open air festivals this weekend.


Webcam Mainz Cathedral with market near my place.


Current temperatures in Germany (will update). Source.

Have a good morning everybody!


something new to watch this morning!!
last wkend 11 die in fl. driving accidents.
Anybody see the blob south of Acapulco. NHC is just calling it a surface trough and not concerned in their discussion at all. UKMET and NAVGEM bring it to a tropical storm in a few days and then stronger but the GFS keeps it weak. Looks pretty robust and close to home to me.
less than 60% florida school children pass math and grammar fcat test
From the Miami NWS Disco...

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE 500MB TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO ADDITIONAL COOLING
WITH THE ECMWF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODEL AND SHOWS THESE NEAR
-10C BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LATE IN THE EXTENDED IS A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN AS THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW TROPICAL LIKE DEVELOPMENT
NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND LIFTS THE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY FRIDAY. HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH DOES NOT SHOW THIS DEVELOPMENT AS THE GFS HAS
BEEN INSISTING ON THIS EVOLVING LOW PRESSURE AND NOTHING HAS
MATERIALIZED AS OF YET.

Quoting islander101010:
less than 60% florida school children pass math and grammar fcat test


I believe this is the last year for the FCAT.
Quoting 731. GeoffreyWPB:

From the Miami NWS Disco...

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE 500MB TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO ADDITIONAL COOLING
WITH THE ECMWF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODEL AND SHOWS THESE NEAR
-10C BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LATE IN THE EXTENDED IS A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN AS THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW TROPICAL LIKE DEVELOPMENT
NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND LIFTS THE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY FRIDAY. HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH DOES NOT SHOW THIS DEVELOPMENT AS THE GFS HAS
BEEN INSISTING ON THIS EVOLVING LOW PRESSURE AND NOTHING HAS
MATERIALIZED AS OF YET.


yes watching for any signs in the carribean this coming week....
governor? cant pass it so get rid of it floridian children need a bigger investment.
The time frame has not changed. Low expected to affect S. Fl in about 8 days.
GFS insists a storm around Miami next weekend..we'll see what happens...............................
dont follow the epac much but this yr it seems the storms are moving the wrong way. they should be heading wnw
Quoting 736. LargoFl:

GFS insists a storm around Miami next weekend..we'll see what happens...............................
GFS has had that low for a long time. It appears to be just a weak depression when near Miami, but intensifies some over the Bahama,s.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT JUN 7 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure has formed several hundred miles south
of Acapulco, Mexico. Although shower and thunderstorm activity is
poorly organized at this time, slow development of this system is
possible during the next several days as the low
drifts northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
Quoting 738. hydrus:

GFS has had that low for a long time. It appears to be just a weak depression when near Miami, but intensifies some over the Bahama,s.
ok ty..navgem is also starting to pick up on something..too early yet i guess
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUN 7 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Surface observations and satellite imagery indicate that the low
pressure area previously near Veracruz, Mexico, has moved farther
inland and is dissipating. However, the remnants of this system
could continue to produce gusty winds and heavy rains, along with
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, over portions of
southeastern and eastern Mexico during the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven
Quoting 721. flsky:

Ponce Inlet in ECFL is fun - lots to do also in the immediate area. If you're artsy, you can head to New Smyrna Beach which is south or if you're a race fan you can hit Daytona. If you want more info shoot me a WU email.




New Smyrna Beach is the best...make sure you stay on the Beachside. Lots of reasonable condos. Great "downtown" on Flagler and on Mainland it's Canal Street. There's always something going on. Also we're "Orlando's Beach" which means it's easy to get over there and back from here. You can choose either driving or nondriving beach (I recommend nondriving) to stay on. But the driving is closest to Flagler Ave. where the action is and you won't have to drive anywhere. Of course Orlando has lots of attractions. If you play golf, prices are quite reasonable here, too.
743. DDR
Quoting ryang:
Where is Pottery? Trinidad getting a good drenching from this T wave (all of it staying to the south of me).



Btw...could this be the catalyst for what the GFS/FIM (and the EURO was) are developing in the western Caribbean?

Morning ryang,maybe i can fill in instead,i got 4.2 inches from 8pm-4am this morning,pottery is probably at work in Tobago or elsewhere :)
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT JUN 7 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure has formed several hundred miles south
of Acapulco, Mexico. Although shower and thunderstorm activity is
poorly organized at this time, slow development of this system is
possible during the next several days as the low
drifts northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

Finally!
Goodmorning WU blog. It's been a while, hope everything is good with everyone. So did 90L tank out as they say in the Caribbean?
I still believe 90L was a storm for a little while...
But..moving on..
747. Wyote
725 Barbamz : "First (mild) day of our heatwave in Germany. It's noon and already 29C/98,2F in my backyard. And this is just the beginning. But people won't complain yet :-). A lot of open air festivals this weekend."

29C = 84F but still pretty dang warm.
My inlaws are coming to Texas for a visit in a week and a half, ANY chance a storm would mess up those plans ? (Hopefully)
So what's the mess on the east coast near Florida?
I was wondering why it was so windy last night. Guess it was that thing lol.
We have new invest 94E in EPAC.

EP, 94, 2014060612, , BEST, 0, 108N, 984W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 240, 70, 0, 0,
EP, 94, 2014060618, , BEST, 0, 108N, 984W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 240, 70, 0, 0,
EP, 94, 2014060700, , BEST, 0, 108N, 984W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 240, 70, 0, 0,
EP, 94, 2014060706, , BEST, 0, 109N, 985W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 240, 70, 0, 0,
EP, 94, 2014060712, , BEST, 0, 110N, 987W, 20, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 240, 70, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST,
Quoting 748. mcdsara1:

My inlaws are coming to Texas for a visit in a week and a half, ANY chance a storm would mess up those plans ? (Hopefully)


Unlikely. I is also hard to make a prediction like that so far out.
Quoting 747. Wyote:

725 Barbamz : "First (mild) day of our heatwave in Germany. It's noon and already 29C/98,2F in my backyard. And this is just the beginning. But people won't complain yet :-). A lot of open air festivals this weekend."

29C = 84F but still pretty dang warm.


Ah, thanks and sorry. I've corrected it. Now the reading in my backyard already is 32C/91,4F .... ;-)

---------------------

BTW new blog from our weatherhistorian:

California Drought Update; Big Improvement in Texas
By: Christopher C. Burt , 08:39 PM GMT am 06. Juni 2014
SSD floater of 94E.This should be Cristina and if conditions allow it may be a hurricane.

Ok 90L is finished like I said
We await the arrival of 91L next week
94E looks good:



Very broad as an ASCAT pass showed yesterday:



Plus it has moderate sheer affecting it at the moment:



(Circulation at about 100W and 12-14N as shown in the ASCAT pass)

Because of these 2 reasons, it'll be be a bit slow in consolidating.

Good model consensus that it'll become a TS in about 5 days:








Note: The Navgem is for winds at the 850mb level, which is around 5000 feet. Surface winds will be lower.
Note 2: The models didn't do well on intensity on Amanda, so once a good circulation forms and it moves into a lower sheer environment it could undergo faster intensification.
Quoting 757. Envoirment:

94E looks good:



Very broad as an ASCAT pass showed yesterday:



Plus it has moderate sheer affecting it at the moment:



(Circulation at about 100W and 12-14N as shown in the ASCAT pass)

Because of these 2 reasons, it'll be be a bit slow in consolidating.

Good model consensus that it'll become a TS in about 5 days:








Note: The Navgem is for winds at the 850mb level, which is around 5000 feet. Surface winds will be lower.
Note 2: The models didn't do well on intensity on Amanda, so once a good circulation forms and it moves into a lower sheer environment it could undergo faster intensification.


ECMWF has a hurricane.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
SSD floater of 94E.This should be Cristina and if conditions allow it may be a hurricane.


Perhaps a major hurricane. We'll see.
760. jpsb
Quoting 716. KoritheMan:



I took it in 2012 and failed horribly. 5 out of 50 math questions right. My aunt was NOT a proficient math teacher (yes, I was homeschooled... although in and of itself I scarcely consider it a bad thing... it's caused me to be more logical and open-minded than most people, but now I'm digressing). I've had to essentially teach myself. I've come far.

Planning to pick up a GED study guide at the library to see what I need to study and what I shouldn't bother with.


I googled online high school math courses and came up with lots of hits. A lot of posters here (including myself) are very good at math and would be happy to help you out from time to time. You can get that GED! Find a online course you like and find someone (local) willing to tutor you.
Hello Dr.Masters
Seems like the impending El Nino has been downgraded by some projections as moderate to weak... How did they come up with this conclusion since much of the weather patterns resemble what happened prior to the severe El Nino of 97? What are your thoughts on the matter... surferT

Looks like some of that tropical energy that was in the Gulf of Mexico has been redirected back to the eastern pacific... Awe those fickle hurricanes I bet they keep you metereologists on your toes!!!
Quoting DDR:

Morning ryang,maybe i can fill in instead,i got 4.2 inches from 8pm-4am this morning,pottery is probably at work in Tobago or elsewhere :)


That's a lot !
I got 1.75'' overnight.
But it fell nice and gentle most of the night, very sweet !

Had to go to the city early this morning, and plenty standing water along the way near Aranguez, Morvant, etc.

Expecting some more during the day, then another dry week after Sunday.
Quoting jpsb:


I googled online high school math courses and came up with lots of hits. A lot of posters here (including myself) are very good at math and would be happy to help you out from time to time. You can get that GED! Find a online course you like and find someone (local) willing to tutor you.


Lots and lots of online sites that have math games and lessons. Also Youtube is a great source of learning. There are tons of math teachers on Youtube teaching every math subject out there (from basic math to college level).
So, Invest 90L was at 70% yesterday, and down to nothing today ?
That makes very little sense to me, in terms of 'forecasting'.
The temp charts for the Pacific can be misleading at first glance, but when one looks at the temps off of N.W.South America, you can see waters are indeed warming along the coast.
Now this is interesting.. the GFDL takes what will most likely be Cristina into the GOM with tropical storm force winds, similar to what we thought would happen to Boris. However, there is no recurve. We will have to watch over the next 5 days.



Edit- This was 93E. Nothing was out yet for 94E.
Quoting 762. pottery:



That's a lot !
I got 1.75'' overnight.
But it fell nice and gentle most of the night, very sweet !

Had to go to the city early this morning, and plenty standing water along the way near Aranguez, Morvant, etc.

Expecting some more during the day, then another dry week after Sunday.
Mornin Pott..I heard that the Mighty Calabash is showin some color..:)
Whoa! Its like a Picasso face in the North Atlantic!

Quoting pottery:
So, Invest 90L was at 70% yesterday, and down to nothing today ?
That makes very little sense to me, in terms of 'forecasting'.


Yesterday the NHC believed the low would stay over open water and develop into at least a Tropical Depression, but the Low moved inland yesterday a head of schedule.

But that Low isn't really going anywhere fast and I wouldn't be suprised if it drifted back into the BOC and tried to get going again. But conditions are still not all that favorable for development in that region.
Quoting 766. WIBadgerWeather:

Now this is interesting.. the GFDL takes what will most likely be Cristina into the GOM with tropical storm force winds, similar to what we thought would happen to Boris. However, there is no recurve. We will have to watch over the next 5 days.




That was for 93E/Boris. The new invest is 94E.
Quoting WIBadgerWeather:
Now this is interesting.. the GFDL takes what will most likely be Cristina into the GOM with tropical storm force winds, similar to what we thought would happen to Boris. However, there is no recurve. We will have to watch over the next 5 days.


Just a tip, the gfdl is the worst model out there for the tropics.
Quoting 771. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Just a tip, the gfdl is the worst model out there for the tropics.
GEM?


Southern Illinois and the CO/NM/TX/OK area seem to be under the greatest threat for tornadoes and hail today.
Quoting 772. Gearsts:

GEM?


I am not sure. I know the GEM and the GFDL are not the most accurate, but I put it down just to show the possibility of something happening. From a storm development standpoint, I think the CMC could be considered least accurate.
Quoting pottery:
So, Invest 90L was at 70% yesterday, and down to nothing today ?
That makes very little sense to me, in terms of 'forecasting'.



May be you Sould read back then you you find out what took place with 90L
Quoting Gearsts:
GEM?

The GEM has a noticeable overbias, but the GFDL will take a sheared depression and make it a Category 4 monster.
Hazardous Weather Outlook

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
731 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014

ALZ011>015-017>050-081245-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH -CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILT ON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MO NTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
731 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 MILE WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF A
CARROLTON...TO CLANTON...TO ALEXANDER CITY LINE THROUGH 9 AM.

A SMALL RISK EXISTS FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO THIS
AFTERNOON BETWEEN 2 AND 8 PM. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS. BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ALONG
AND WEST OF A REFORM...TO TUSCALOOSA...TO SELMA LINE. ALTHOUGH A
SEVERE STORM AS FAR EAST AS THE I-65 CORRIDOR CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH BEST CHANCES BETWEEN 2 AND 8
PM. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

$$
from the enso blog

However, right now, forecasters are not favoring a strong event (while not at all ruling it out) and believe a moderate event (ONI 1.0 - 1.5) is slightly more likely, sometime during the fall/winter. So what%u2019s going on?

First, the subsurface temperatures have tapered off a bit recently (Figure 1). While still substantially above normal, the average of the upper-ocean (300m to surface) temperatures in the tropical Pacific has decreased over the past two months. SSTs tend to lag this measurement, often by a few months and with lesser intensity.




The difference between 1997 and 2014 are also illustrated by the May cross-sections of temperature anomaly along the equator (Figure 2). If you%u2019re interested, you can check out the history of ocean temperature anomalies and compare other El Nio events, such as 2002/03 or 2009/10, at a new CPC site.



Another factor the forecasters are considering is the model guidance. Most climate models are predicting a weak-to-moderate event, with dynamical models slightly favoring a moderate event and statistical models favoring a weaker event. The ensemble mean of NCEP%u2019s Climate Forecast System, CFSv2 (Figure 3, black dashed line) has been fairly consistent in forecasting Nio3.4 anomalies in the range of 1.0-1.5C, but, as you can see from the individual model runs (blue, red, and gray lines), there is an envelope of possible values from 0C to slightly above 2.0C.



We%u2019re beginning to move beyond the %u201Cspring barrier%u201D (when models have a harder time accurately predicting future conditions) and will be watching the ENSO model forecasts closely going forward. Regardless, predicting the peak strength tends to be the most difficult part of ENSO forecasting
Numbers of victims are rising, unfortunately:

Afghanistan flash flood kills dozens in Baghlan province
7 June 2014 Last updated at 12:09 GMT
Flash flooding in the remote northern Afghan province of Baghlan has killed at least 73 people and forced thousands to abandon their homes, police say.
The flooding has been deadliest in the Guzargah-e-Nur district of the province 140km (87 miles) north of the provincial capital Puli Khumri.
Police say the dead include women and children. About 200 people are missing.
Some 2,000 homes have been destroyed and roads washed away in what a local official said was a "huge disaster".
Northern Afghanistan has been hit by a series of floods in recent weeks, which have affected tens of thousands of people.
Flooding and landslides happen annually during the spring-summer rainy season in the north of the country, where flimsy mud houses offering scant shelter against rising water levels and an volumes of mud. ...
Here is Sterling's take on Sunday night: "Showers are likely with possible t-storms. Rainfall will be locally heavy at times. The threat for severe weather seems low at this point but will have to be monitored closely.
Should storms be rooted within the boundary layer.....then isolated tornadoes would be possible."


Tomorrow is the Jazz festival up the street from me.I better be early and prepared to leave really quick.
Finally back





Quoting WIBadgerWeather:


Southern Illinois and the CO/NM/TX/OK area seem to be under the greatest threat for tornadoes and hail today.


Yesterday was only a Slight Risk for severe weather across Colorado area, but they had a lot of severe thunderstorms.
I know Mike - Stormscapelive witnessed two separate tornadoes chasing in that area.
At one time there were about 7 active tornado warnings going.
There were more tornsdoes yesterday than the day they issued the moderate risk earlier in the week.
779. ricderr

I always saw this as a moderate event.So much for that on par or stronger than 1997 el nino gig some were on early.
I always saw this as a moderate event.So much for that on par or stronger than 1997 el nino gig some were on early.


well...before we got into the spring barrier a moderate event was being predicted.....the models went wild during the start of spring and everyone started looking for a reason to validate the models and latched onto the kelvin wave...next thing you know the media started looking for people to support this and they found a few....funny though...none were really active in the enso field....and when these same writers questioned enso staff...they were told wait and see...that should have been enough for most reasonable people to say watch and wait...
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 574. AllStar17:



Don't forget about Jose.




Jose was arguably a meso low due to its extremely small size, length of life, and how it was generated. We had a weak low that formed in the east gulf a few years back in August from repeated convective rounds, it was a meso low, a small area of strong winds and a tight circulation, it was no different than "Jose".