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Invest 90L in Gulf of Mexico a Heavy Rain Threat for Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:28 PM GMT on June 05, 2014

A tropical disturbance in the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, Invest 90L, is nearly stationary, and is bringing a few heavy thunderstorms to the Gulf waters and Mexican shore along the Bay of Campeche. Satellite loops show that 90L is poorly organized, with a broad area of spin that is not well-defined, and only limited heavy thunderstorm activity. Radar out of Alvarado shows the storm has developed two low-level spiral bands near the coast that bear watching, though. Wind shear as diagnosed by University of Wisconsin CIMSS is a high 25 - 30 knots, which is keeping the system from developing. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Southern Gulf of Mexico are about 28°, which is about 0.5° above average. These warm waters do not extend to great depth, and the total heat energy available to intensify a potential storm is rather low. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 90L Thursday afternoon, if necessary.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 90L over the Gulf of Mexico, and the remnants of Boris over Southeast Mexico.

Forecast for 90L
The 8 am EDT Thursday run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will stay high over the Bay of Campeche through Sunday. Boris' remnants will be working their way northwards and arrive in the Bay of Campeche over the weekend, and the extra spin and moisture from Boris have the potential to aid development of 90L. However, none of the reliable genesis forecast models predict that 90L will develop over the next five days, and most of the models show the circulation moving westwards over land by Monday. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 30%. The big threat from 90L is heavy rains, which will continue over Southeast Mexico into the weekend, causing flash flooding and dangerous mudslides. Several areas of 6 - 12" of rain fell in 24 hours over Mexico on Wednesday, thanks to the combined influences of 90L and Tropical Storm Boris. Boris made landfall in Southeast Mexico near 2 am EDT on Wednesday as a minimum-strength tropical storm with 40 mph winds, and dissipated Wednesday afternoon. Thus far, there are no reports of deaths or heavy damage in Mexico from the storm.


Figure 2. Total precipitation recorded for the 24 hours ending at 8 am Wednesday June 4, 2014. Image credit: Conagua.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* portions of east Arkansas...north Mississippi...southeast Missouri and west Tennessee...including the following areas... in east Arkansas...Clay...Craighead...Crittenden...cross.. . Greene...Lawrence...Lee...Mississippi...Poinsett.. .Randolph and St. Francis. In north Mississippi...Alcorn...Benton... DeSoto...Marshall...Prentiss...Tate...Tippah...Tis homingo... Tunica and Union. In southeast Missouri...Dunklin and Pemiscot. In west Tennessee...Benton...Carroll...Chester... Crockett...Decatur...Dyer...Fayette...Gibson...Har deman... Hardin...Haywood...Henderson...Henry...Lake...Laud erdale... Madison...McNairy...Obion...Shelby...Tipton and Weakley.

* Through this evening

* numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across portions of northeast Arkansas...the Missouri bootheel...west Tennessee...and far northeast Mississippi this morning. These storms will produce areas of heavy rainfall and potential flash flooding. Several inches of rain will be possible in areas where thunderstorms move repeatedly over the same areas. Some locations may experience rainfall amounts in excess of 2 inches and occur over areas that experienced excessive rainfall amounts on Thursday. Additional storms with heavy rainfall will be possible again this afternoon and evening over portions of this area.

* Low water crossings may quickly become flooded and Road closures from the heavy rains will be possible. Urban sewer systems may become backed up posing additional flooding on city streets.
If the blob of convection 90L persists ... we might quickly get a TD or TS! Probably depends what the Recon finds, if they get deployed.
850MB

500MB
Quoting 502. Stormwatch247:

If the blob of convection 90L persists ... we might quickly get a TD or TS! Probably depends what the Recon finds, if they get deployed.

Which it might not...might just be able to make it to TD. Recon just might find 30-35mph winds and maybe a disorganised or not fully closed LLC the strong 30-35mph wind might be far away from the center with maybe some not so strong but decent winds near the center

it would be great if AL90 followed the LBAR track,Texas can surely use its rains huh......
Quoting LargoFl:
it would be great if AL90 followed the LBAR track,Texas can surely use its rains huh......


I believe AL90 is going to just move island over Mexico and be done with.
The NAM has been consistantly showing this.
Quoting 502. Stormwatch247:

If the blob of convection 90L persists ... we might quickly get a TD or TS! Probably depends what the Recon finds, if they get deployed.


It is holding on. If wind shear can relax just a little bit the BOC is notorious for small systems to quickly spin up.
Quoting 486. wunderkidcayman:

I say LLC located around 19.7N 95.0W moving W looking at Alvarado radar looks more like WSW
Location via Satellite and radar data

12Z BEST track data seems to be correct with Alvarado Radar

19.6N 95.3W
Quoting 511. jrweatherman:



It is holding on. If wind shear can relax just a little bit the BOC is notorious for small systems to quickly spin up.

Which shear won't do
Quoting 510. Sfloridacat5:



I believe AL90 is going to just move island over Mexico and be done with.
The NAM has been consistantly showing this.


Yet, the GFS has also been consistently showing a portion of the energy heading NE towards Cuba and S Florida.
Quoting 514. FIUStormChaser:



Yet, the GFS has also been consistently showing a portion of the energy heading NE towards Cuba and S Florida.

Yeah 90L move on shore and it's energy get transferred into the GOH/W Caribbean

According to BEST track data 90L is now making its moves and has ceased meander movement
Which is agreeable by radar and satellite data
The new burst blob of convection is now weakening and being sheared Eastward
Quoting 517. wunderkidcayman:

The new burst blob of convection is now weakening and being sheared Eastward

Or should I say North Eastward
Quoting 515. wunderkidcayman:


Yeah 90L move on shore and it's energy get transferred into the GOH/W Caribbean




So are you saying a Caribbean storm or just left over moisture?
stay alert today folks in Georgia etc............................................... .................
Quoting 519. jrweatherman:



So are you saying a Caribbean storm or just left over moisture?

It could be a storm or another Invest area
Caused by the leftover moisture from 90L
I dont see anything on the NWS briefings long range,about anything coming close to a tropical storm for florida..just alot of tropical moisture etc wens-thurs for florida..........its early yet,by monday they should know whats going on....it could be all this never happens too...we'll see in 2-3 days what they say
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING MOVING
SOUTH TOWARDS COAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE STRETCHING FROM ANDALUSIA TO
GROVE HILL IN ALABAMA. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES.
90L LLC is becoming exposed
As the convection weakens and shears off East-NorthEastwards
so if 90L stays offshore and strengthens it could move up to the US coastline, but if it weakens,into mexico it goes..thats my best guess.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND
A SHORT-WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A NEARLY
STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 19N94W. THIS AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT
LAND AREAS OF S-SE MEXICO...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE TO THE E OF THE CENTER. GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE COULD OCCUR LATER TODAY BEFORE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME HOSTILE AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES WILL CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF SE MEXICO.
19.3N 95.7W moving WSW confirmed on vis and RGB satellite
Unusual geological event in India on Friday, 06 June, 2014 at 03:01 (03:01 AM) UTC.
Description
Reports of a "volcano-like eruption" in Kangra district in Himachal Pradesh has triggered panic among the people of the area. Flames and a hot liquid stream were seen spewing out of a hill 100 m from Gadiyada village. The village is over 200 km from Shimla. After a report by the state geologists confirmed the eruption as 'small magmatic activity', a team of Geological Survey of India (GSI) reached the site on Thursday. This is the first time such a volcanic activity has been witnessed in the state. Fearing that a bigger eruption could damage their agricultural land and houses, residents of around half a dozen villages in the vicinity of the eruption are anxiously awaiting the final report of GSI team. "Gases and liquids are being emitted from holes in a 10 feet area around the hill where the volcanic activity took place," said Ved Prakash, president of Drang panchayat. He said the eruption, unheard of in this area, caused panic among villagers. Unmindful of the threat of more volcanic activity the site has turned into a tourist spot with hundreds of people from surrounding areas heading there to see the phenomen on. To prevent anything untoward the district administration has decided to fence off the entire area and deploy security guards. Chief parliamentary secretary Jagjivan Pal in whose Sulah assembly constituency the area falls visited the spot on Tuesday. He said the flames and the hot liquid emanating from the hill had created panic. "Underground temperature in the area has increased manifold and people say that a steel electricity pole had become red hot a couple of days back," he added. Pal said a sulphur-like material and black stone is flowing out from the perimeter of the hill. Palampur SDM Bhupender Attri said a team of geologists from state had confirmed small scale magmatic activity in the area. As chances of this activity escalating in coming days cannot be ruled out, a GSI team has been called to study the area and check the strata. "Flames were witnessed so possibility of reoccurrence cannot be ruled out. Now we are waiting for the final report from GSI team," he added. Former state geologist Arun Sharma said occurrence of such a volcanic eruption has been reported for the first time in Himachal Pradesh but the presence of magmatic substance is not new to the state. He said that existence of hot sulphur springs at Manikaran, Kalath, Tattapni and Vashishth confirms that magmatic material is present underneath these springs.
California drought: El Niño chances increase, but scientists say it may be a weak one
By Paul Rogers

progers@mercurynews.com

POSTED: 06/05/2014 03:39:50 PM PDT3 COMMENTS| UPDATED: ABOUT 2 HOURS AGO


California drought: El Niño chances increase, but scientists say it may be a weak one

Suffering through the third year of an oppressive drought, California received good and bad news Thursday from scientists closely tracking the Pacific Ocean for El Niño, the phenomenon when ocean waters warm, often bringing wet winters to California.

The chances of El Niño conditions developing by this fall are now 82 percent, up from 78 percent last month -- and 36 percent since November -- the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced.

But for the first time, NOAA scientists said, it looks like a moderate -- rather than a strong -- El Niño is developing. And historically, while strong El Niños have nearly always brought soaking rains to California, moderate and weak ones only about half the time have delivered wetter-than-normal winters.


"The question now is what flavor of El Niño we're going to get," said Bill Patzert, a research scientist and oceanographer at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena. "I've got my money on this being El Wimpo."
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Hey everyone!

The "naked swirl" lol. At least it is a closed surface circulation, but shear seems a tad high.