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Boris a Dangerous Rainfall Threat for Mexico and Guatemala

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:29 PM GMT on June 03, 2014

Torrential rains are lashing Southeast Mexico and Southern Guatemala as Tropical Storm Boris lumbers northwards at about 5 mph, with landfall expected to occur Wednesday in Southeast Mexico. Even though Boris has top winds of just 40 mph, and will, at worst, be a weak tropical storm at landfall, it is an extremely dangerous rainfall threat to the region, as the storm's slow motion is expected keep heavy rains over the region the entire week. The NHC forecast is for 10 - 20" of rain with isolated amounts of 30 inches (750 mm) or more in the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Chiapas. Rains of this magnitude are capable of causing widespread flooding and heavy loss of life. Tropical Storm Agatha hit this region at the end of May 2010 as a weak tropical storm with 45 mph winds, and dumped up to 22.27" of rain. The resulting catastrophic flash floods and landslides killed 190 and caused $1.1 billion in damage, mostly in Guatemala. Heavy rains from the precursors of Boris triggered a landslide in Guatemala over the weekend, killing five people. In neighboring areas of Mexico, several landslides closed mountain roads on Monday, and evacuations began Monday evening from coastal and low-lying areas next to rivers that are prone to flooding.


FIgure 1. Latest satellite image of Boris.

Satellite images show that Boris is poorly organized, but has several clumps of heavy thunderstorms. Mexican radar showed the heaviest rains were offshore this morning, but these rains will move inland today as the storm heads north at 5 mph.


Figure 2. Satellite rainfall estimates for the 24-hour period ending Tuesday morning, June 3, 2014 over Central America. Rainfall amounts in excess of 200 mm (7.87") were estimated along the Guatemala coast and near the Belize/Mexico border. Image credit: http://climaya.com.

Will Boris emerge into the Gulf of Mexico late this week?
If Boris continues due north along its current path at its current speed for the remainder of the week, the storm will cross the narrowest part of Mexico and potentially emerge over the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche late this week. Once over the warm waters of the Gulf, the remnants of Boris will have the potential to regenerate into a tropical depression. The 06Z Tuesday run of the SHIPS model, which uses the GFS model to diagnose wind shear, is predicting that wind shear in the Bay of Campeche will be moderate, 10 - 15 knots, on Friday and Saturday. However, a band of high wind shear associated with strong upper-level winds from the subtropical jet stream is predicted to lie over the Central Gulf of Mexico, and these winds may interfere with development. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Southern Gulf of Mexico are about 28°, which is about 0.5° above average. These warm waters do not extend to great depth, and the total heat energy available to intensify a potential storm is rather low. SSTs cool quickly as one goes to the north, are a marginal 26°C in the Central Gulf of Mexico. The GFS model is bullish on developing a tropical depression in the Gulf of Mexico late this week. But according to WSI's tropical weather expert Michael Ventrice, who has guest blogged on El Niño in my blog, the GFS likely has insufficient resolution to handle a large tropical low pressure system forecast to set up over Central American late this week. These large low pressure systems often have "spokes" of extra spin that rotate around the main low, and these "spokes" are often erroneously developed into tropical depressions by the GFS model. The European model is much less gung-ho about developing a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico late this week, and NHC is currently giving no chance that such an event will happen by Sunday. I put the odds at 10%.


Figure 3. Sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico were a very warm 28°C in the southmost Bay of Campeche on June 1, 2014, but diminished quickly to 26°C in the Central Gulf. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 981. StormingInChicago:


That is more ice than we have seen in the last 5 years. And latest data and research is saying the ice extent, volume, and area should recover to near 1979 levels in about 10 years. So that is good news. Great links and images, Keep!

Grade A baloney. Perhaps you could cite this "latest data and research?"


Hudson bay vis shows clear water its not as frozen as ya think and is mosly slop ice or slush ice if I may call it that's left
1003. ricderr
It's only hot when the Mexican drug gangs leave because it is too hot.


dude....they got bucks for ac......average mexican police officer makes 18 thousand a year.....average drug runner.....36,000....
Stormtracker its been saying that since last night
Quoting 997. Naga5000:



Untrue, completely.





There is no peer reviewed research stating any of what you said. There is a lot of pseudo blog science saying that, however.




The guy is trolling the blog like he always does to try and get arise out of someone. Best to ignore as that is what i have done and the blog looks much better as a result.
Quoting 993. rmbjoe1954:

I guess all the action may head westward-
But Taz said it first!!

Nah all the action at this time will move nowhere

Quoting 994. StormTrackerScott:

Daniel Swain @Weather_West

Dynamical models hinting at strong MJO pulse later in June. Big implications for developing #ElNino if this verifies.
pic.twitter.com/4AHgo8xCUR



Lol swain
There was a TV show that I use to watch out of Australia called Sea Patrol and it's based on the Australian Navy doing patrols around the water one of the guys nicknamed swain
Link
1007. jpsb
Quoting 997. Naga5000:




There is no peer reviewed research stating any of what you said. There is a lot of pseudo blog science saying that, however.




Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice
1008. jpsb
Quoting 1000. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

yes and its melting by end of june it will all be gone remember its july august and early sept that's important jun is still early spring for most of those regions
Thanks
Quoting 990. JrWeathermanFL:



This is the forecast for the Day After Tomorrow..
Meh if they have put the hurricanes in Ocean it would have been more believable.
1010. ricderr
could stormy be right?????......nahhhhhhhh....he's not a professor


Australia's Weather Bureau Expects El Niño by August
Weather System Could Pose Problems for Wheat and Sugar Cane Crops


By ISABELLA STEGER CONNECT
June 3, 2014 4:47 a.m. ET
A worker carries a bundle of harvested sugarcane in India. Bloomberg News
Australia's weather bureau said Tuesday it expects a return of the El Niño weather system by August, a phenomenon that could damage food crops around the world.

El Niño is an abnormal warming of the Pacific Ocean that causes drought in some areas and flooding in others. It takes place every three to five years, and the Bureau of Meteorology said in its latest update that there is a 70% chance it will develop this year.

The bureau said that sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean have risen since February. The last El Niño event was in 2009
Quoting 1006. wunderkidcayman:


Nah all the action at this time will move nowhere


Lol swain
There was a TV show that I use to watch out of Australia called Sea Patrol and it's based on the Australian Navy doing patrols around the water one of the guys nicknamed swain
Link


Hi wunderkid, he's right we have scenarios at play here one is 90L moves west into Mexico and 2, 90L gets picked up by a developing trough in the Central Gulf in 6 days and gets pulled NE.
Quoting 998. StormTrackerScott:


Remember BAMS models are for shallow systems. GFS & now the Canadian bring something from the NW Caribbean. I have to look if its 90L or another separate system that forms.


Hi Scott-

One thing is for sure- next week is going to be a wet week for Florida.
Quoting 938. Skyepony:

Earthquake in USA on Wednesday, 04 June, 2014 at 10:31 (10:31 AM) UTC.
Description
Seismographs have picked up a swarm of earthquakes in the northwestern corner of Yellowstone National Park, including dozens early Tuesday. The University of Utah Seismograph Station reported five small earthquakes including those with magnitudes of 3.4, 2.7 and 3.2 in a 20-minute period starting at 3:33 a.m. in an area 16 to 18 miles south of Gardiner. Earthquake information specialist Paul Roberson says there were another 20 to 30 small quakes Tuesday morning that hadn't yet been posted on the university's website. He called it a fairly normal swarm for Yellowstone. He didn't expect there to be any damage. Seismographs recorded 31 quakes in the same area south of Gardiner on Saturday, while another 23 were reported last Wednesday and Thursday in an area between 18 and 19 miles east-southeast of West Yellowstone.


That would certainly change the game in global warming for awhile. There could be a whole blog done on the questions around such a eruption. It would reverse the forcing buying time. It could cause catastrophic famine, thinning our herd. Reduced sunlight and lower temps could devastate vegetation worldwide selecting cold hardy specie as lone survivors. What happens when the caldera returns to dormancy... and the atmosphere clears? Will the warm come back with a vengeance... and warm hardy vegetation is gone? Lots of questions, but very interesting to me. Thanks for the link Skye.
Quoting 1012. rmbjoe1954:



Hi Scott-

One thing is for sure- next week is going to be a wet week for Florida.


say no Joe!
Quoting allancalderini:
Meh if they have put the hurricanes in Ocean it would have been more believable.

They're extratropical cyclones. One of them flooded and then froze New York City.
Quoting 1013. indianrivguy:



That would certainly change the game in global warming for awhile. There could be a whole blog done on the questions around such a eruption. It would reverse the forcing buying time. It could cause catastrophic famine, thinning our herd. Reduced sunlight and lower temps could devastate vegetation worldwide selecting cold hardy specie as lone survivors. What happens when the caldera returns to dormancy... and the atmosphere clears? Will the warm come back with a vengeance... and warm hardy vegetation is gone? Lots of questions, but very interesting to me. Thanks for the link Skye.
I think it was John McPhee's essay "Rising from the Plains" in which he described a previous Yellowstone Caldera eruption as having covered the Great Plains from the Rockies to the Mississippi River with a very deep layer of ash. If that happened again the climate effects would be minor in comparison to the effect on food supplies.
1017. StormWx
Quoting rmbjoe1954:


Hi Scott-

One thing is for sure- next week is going to be a wet week for Florida.


One thing is for sure, we sure dont know exactly what will happen next week, because we arent there yet.
CUE THE LYRICS: ''Hello!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Is it me you're calling from?''

I absolutely LOVE that song.

In any event, G'morning, all!

Happy Hump Day!
how true storm wk
New 12Z sfc charts out low in BOC moved W now on coastline and shows it moving from W-E
1021. 7544

Quoting 998. StormTrackerScott:



Remember BAMS models are for shallow systems. GFS & now the Canadian bring something from the NW Caribbean. I have to look if its 90L or another separate system that forms.
90L  just poped up but i dont think  this  is  what the gfs has  been showing afectting fl  its  another one  that  gets  going  in the yucatan channel and  heads ene .


Quoting 1020. wunderkidcayman:

New 12Z sfc charts out low in BOC moved W now on coastline and shows it moving from W-E


Which makes sense visible sat images shows a weakish spin on the coast right where the 12Z sfc map put it
1023. LargoFl
1024. jpsb
Quoting 1013. indianrivguy:



That would certainly change the game in global warming for awhile. There could be a whole blog done on the questions around such a eruption. It would reverse the forcing buying time. It could cause catastrophic famine, thinning our herd. Reduced sunlight and lower temps could devastate vegetation worldwide selecting cold hardy specie as lone survivors. What happens when the caldera returns to dormancy... and the atmosphere clears? Will the warm come back with a vengeance... and warm hardy vegetation is gone? Lots of questions, but very interesting to me. Thanks for the link Skye.


The thing to watch for in Yellow Stone quakes is the depth of earth quakes and an large scale upward movement of the surface. Off the top of my head I don't know the depth of the magma chamber at yellow stone, I'd guess 10 to 12 miles, so quakes at that depth or slightly shallower could indicate magma movement. Normally very shallow quakes (less then 5-6) miles would be worry some, but Yellowstone has a geyser system which can cause shallow quakes that do not indicate and impending eruption. Yellowstone has erupted many times and only 3 eruptions have been super volcano eruptions. If I were prone to worrying about super volcanoes I worry more about Toba, Krakatoa or some other (TBD) volcano in Indonesia. Seems Indonesia is where the action is currently.
1025. LargoFl
Quoting 1013. indianrivguy:



That would certainly change the game in global warming for awhile. There could be a whole blog done on the questions around such a eruption. It would reverse the forcing buying time. It could cause catastrophic famine, thinning our herd. Reduced sunlight and lower temps could devastate vegetation worldwide selecting cold hardy specie as lone survivors. What happens when the caldera returns to dormancy... and the atmosphere clears? Will the warm come back with a vengeance... and warm hardy vegetation is gone? Lots of questions, but very interesting to me. Thanks for the link Skye.
yes all it would take is one massive eruption and the game is changed..some say it was a massive eruption followed by cooling that ended the dinosaur reign..........
1026. 7544
morning all 90L just came out of  no where lol but eveyone  sayin its  going west .but looking at the gfs its  going to  be  a different system  that forms   by the yucatan and  head  ene  toward fl  latter  next  week  as the gfs  has  been  showing  for  days perhaps 91L ?
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1028. LargoFl
Invest-90.......................................... ......................................
This region would prove deadly if this Volcano became active, many people live inside this caldera.  Campi Flegrei
Quoting jpsb:


The thing to watch for in Yellow Stone quakes is the depth of earth quakes and an large scale upward movement of the surface. Off the top of my head I don't know the depth of the magma chamber at yellow stone, I'd guess 10 to 12 miles, so quakes at that depth or slightly shallower could indicate magma movement. Normally very shallow quakes (less then 5-6) miles would be worry some, but Yellowstone has a geyser system which can cause shallow quakes that do not indicate and impending eruption. Yellowstone has erupted many times and only 3 eruptions have been super volcano eruptions. If I were prone to worrying about super volcanoes I worry more about Toba, Krakatoa or some other (TBD) volcano in Indonesia. Seems Indonesia is where the action is currently.

The squadron is ready to make the first mission on Thursday.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT WED 04 JUNE 2014
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z JUNE 2014
WSPOD NUMBER.....14-004

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (BAY OF CAMPECHE)
FLIGHT ONE -TEAL 71-
A. 05/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 05/1600Z
D. 19.0N 94.0W
E. 05/1830Z TO 05/2300Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE FIX MISSION
NEAR 19.0N 94.5W AT 06/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
Quoting 1013. indianrivguy:


That would certainly change the game in global warming for awhile. There could be a whole blog done on the questions around such a eruption. It would reverse the forcing buying time. It could cause catastrophic famine, thinning our herd. Reduced sunlight and lower temps could devastate vegetation worldwide selecting cold hardy specie as lone survivors. What happens when the caldera returns to dormancy... and the atmosphere clears? Will the warm come back with a vengeance... and warm hardy vegetation is gone? Lots of questions, but very interesting to me. Thanks for the link Skye.


I hope we can be spared a few more decades, Marty!
Quoting jpsb:


What I find interesting is that all of Hudson Bay and most of James Bay is still frozen. Is that normal for this time of year?


Yes
1033. cynyc2
Quoting 631. ricderr:

It's 106 in El paso at 630...High was 107...obliterating our previous record...tomorrow is supposed to be warmer..I now know how the wicked witch felt...I'm melting
The same high pressure system that is cooking you has been cooking the Tucson area for a few days now. Nothing in the forecast less than 102!

I don't like these stalling high pressure systems - the heat kills me as I get old.
Quoting 1007. jpsb:



Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice


according to that link, current area is the second-lowest on record and is behind the lowest by about .13%. basically tied for first.
Quoting 942. CaneFreeCR:

Wow - thanks very much for posting that explanation! It makes the whole discussion of the phenomenon more understandable. But, as usual, it also raises some questions. Is the SOI leading or following the water temperature? It would seem that, as it is an air pressure measurement, it's following, since the air is heated by the water and higher pressure results from heating the air. Thus it is an indicator of water temperature difference, not a precursor or driver. Another question is, what sort of lag is there between a temperature rise in the water and an air pressure increase over that body of water -- theoretically it should be a fairly rapid response. One by-product of global warming may be that these differences in pressure will be reduced due to less difference in water temperatures as the whole ocean warms; is the implication for El Niño that there will be fewer and weaker ones?


My understanding is that the meteorological manifestation (in pressure differences) tends to follow the sea surface temperature changes. Then the weather teleconnections begin to follow after the changes in pressure. I've numerous times heard a 4-6 month lag discussed between the sea surface temperature anomalies and weather teleconnections. I've heard the SOI/pressure anomalies having something on the order of a 2-3 month lag.
I have a feeling it may not be that clear-cut where SOI is always lagging ONI. And they may not always correlate 100%.

I'd keep looking to be sure. Perhaps there are some papers you can find via scholar.google.com?
Maybe CPC has some links to relevant ENSO publications that might discuss this in more depth.
1036. cynyc2
Quoting 975. ricderr:

Lawdy thats hot Ric. Imagine if you didnt have A/C! Here in FL we are enjoying beautiful weather in the 80s with low chances of rain today. Fortunately it looks like the disturbance in the BOC is not coming our way. We shall see.

it's too hot...when we leave work we run outside 10 minutes before and start the car and run the ac so it won't be an oven inside.......and we do have a/c at work and at home...but many people do not...they have swamp coolers....and they lower the temp about 15-20 degrees.....not enough with the weather we're having
Of course that depends on the dew point. When it gets that hot here in Tucson, our dew points are often in the negative to single digit number range. A decent swamp cooler will work fine (no AC at my house, just swamp).

When the monsoons come, the dew points get in the 40 to 60 range (still hits 100 outside). That's when the misery kicks in...
1037. Dakster
Quoting 1013. indianrivguy:



That would certainly change the game in global warming for awhile. There could be a whole blog done on the questions around such a eruption. It would reverse the forcing buying time. It could cause catastrophic famine, thinning our herd. Reduced sunlight and lower temps could devastate vegetation worldwide selecting cold hardy specie as lone survivors. What happens when the caldera returns to dormancy... and the atmosphere clears? Will the warm come back with a vengeance... and warm hardy vegetation is gone? Lots of questions, but very interesting to me. Thanks for the link Skye.


I was going to go to yellowstone here shortly - like next week... I may change those plans now.
1038. hydrus