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Boldest Presidental Action Ever Taken to Combat Climate Change: EPA's New Regulations

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:13 PM GMT on June 02, 2014

President Obama's administration unveiled on Monday the "Clean Power Plan", a 645-page proposal to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from existing U.S. power plants under the 1970 Clean Air Act. The proposed regulations would reduce carbon dioxide emissions from these plants by 25% by 2020, compared to 2005 levels, and by 30% by 2030. The new regulations would hit the nation's 491 coal-fired power plants the most, since these plants account for 74% of the electric sector's carbon dioxide emissions, according to the Energy Information Administration. Coal burning supplies 37% of the nation's electric power, just behind natural gas.


Figure 1. On a hot day at Georgetown University, President Barack Obama removes his jacket before speaking about climate change on Tuesday, June 25, 2013. AP Photo.

The EPA plans to finalize the regulations by June 30, 2015, and states would have until June 2016 to submit their plans to the agency. Any American can comment on the proposed regulations here. The proposed regulations have already come under heavy fire from lawmakers in coal-producing states like West Virginia and Kentucky, and from industry-funded lobbying groups like the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, who warn of large job losses and economic costs. But in EPA administrator Gina McCarthy's June 2 speech, she touted that "the first year that these standards go into effect, we’ll avoid up to 100,000 asthma attacks and 2,100 heart attacks—and those numbers go up from there. In 2030, the Clean Power Plan will deliver climate and health benefits of up to $90 billion dollars. And for soot and smog reductions alone, that means for every dollar we invest in the plan, families will see $7 dollars in health benefits. And if states are smart about taking advantage of efficiency opportunities, and I know they are, when the effects of this plan are in place in 2030, average electricity bills will be 8 percent cheaper."

The Road to the Crucial 2015 Climate Change Summit In Paris
At the 2009 Copenhagen climate change negotiations, the U.S. committed to a goal of reducing nationwide greenhouse gas emissions by 17% below 2005 levels by 2020. Today's proposed regulations only affect the electric power sector, which is responsible for 40% of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, so additional work will be needed to achieve this modest goal. Still, Obama's announcement today is the single most aggressive action any U.S. president has ever taken to reduce climate change, and will put the U.S. in a leadership position during the crucial December 2015 negotiations in Paris intended to forge a new legally binding global climate change treaty.

Jeff Masters

Climate Change Politics Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Washington that's true but it only the beginning of the season and the mdr cooling will likely change and el nino don't press to much on that friend
Quoting 501. weatherman994:

Washington that's true but it only the beginning of the season and the mdr cooling will likely change and el nino don't press to much on that friend
el nino don't press to much on that friend .Even if a el nino wasn't forming this summer/fall the instability and cool MDR sst will cause problems just like it did last year.
Tropical Pacific Ocean remains on track for El Nio in 2014
Issued on Tuesday 3 June 2014 | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO
The tropical Pacific Ocean remains on track for El Nio in 2014, with just over half of the climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggesting El Nio will become established by August. An El Nio ALERT remains in place, indicating at least a 70% chance of an El Nio developing in 2014.
Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean have increased steadily since February, and are now greater than 0.5 C in the key NINO regions. However, above-average SSTs also extend into the western tropical Pacific, meaning strong west to east gradients in tropical Pacific SST anomalies are yet to become established. As a result, atmospheric indicators%u2014such as the Southern Oscillation Index and trade winds%u2014have only shown a weak response.
For Australia, El Nio is often associated with below-average rainfall over southern and eastern inland areas and above-normal daytime temperatures over southern parts of the continent. It is not uncommon to see some impacts prior to an event becoming fully established. May rainfall was below normal across parts of eastern Australia and maximum temperatures were above normal across much of the south and east.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. Model outlooks suggest the IOD is most likely to remain neutral through winter, with two of the five models surveyed suggesting a positive IOD may develop during spring. Positive IOD events often coincide with El Nio and are typically associated with large parts of southern and central Australia experiencing lower rainfall than usual.



Link
Quoting 476. Sfloridacat5:



You left out Texas. If a model shows a system heading towards Texas, you'll see people in the blog you haven't seen in a while (since the last model run showed a low heading towards Texas).

At least many of the Florida members are here year round (Winter, Spring, Summer, Fall). Myself, Largo Scott, and may others are in here everyday even when it's 38 degrees outside on a cold January morning.




Us Florida bloggers are loyal bloggers that's for sure. From tracking Winter storms to hurricanes in the summer we're here always.
Good morning. Ever since Debby in 2012 when the GFS was the only model that pegged her right I watch it a little more for the early storms. I was sitting here in Madeira Beach with rain and wind while all the other models kept saying she's going to Texas :) This is from the NWS Tampa Bay Ruskin discussion this morning.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-NEXT TUESDAY)...
THE TROPICAL FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE YUCATAN SHOULD CONTINUE TO
STAY IN THE SE GULF. THE 00Z GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
DEVELOPING THE FEATURE...AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE OTHER GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH MAINTAINS A WEAKER FEATURE. AN APPROACHING
FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR ON
FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY WEAKENING THE WEDGE OF DRIER AIR OVER NORTHERN
FLORIDA WHICH COULD INCREASE RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
GULF MOISTURE IS ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
STILL LARGE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE YUCATAN FEATURE AND ITS
FUTURE...BEARS WATCHING THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.
Washingtonian again this is only the beginning of the season I'm expecting the mdr to change as the season progress so active season we go
Quoting 495. hydrus:

Total Acc. Precip at 192 hours..


Nah
Too high of values in the BOC area
Quoting 487. weatherman994:

I believe this will be an active season
No matter how many Atlantic storms are predicted to form in 2014, IF any coastline gets hit by a hurricane, it will be an "active season" ... for the area impacted.
Lastnight we had 91W new. It's gone & so is 94A..

GEOS-5 has 02E making landfall tonight. Then it sort of backs up & just pours on that same area for days. This is looking like a big flooding, landslide hazard.



Tries to reform even at the end of the weekend.. Then just sits there & maybe just a little west of there til Thursday or Friday..

Its a shame living in PA watching gas companies "industrialize" incredibly large amounts of natural lands to extract Natural Gas so we can migrate off of ‘dirty’ coal. Coal is bad, its needs to be replaced, but this whole push by POTUS will only shift who becomes the environmental losers. This recent effort is no free ride, only rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.
Quoting 506. weatherman994:

Washingtonian again this is only the beginning of the season I'm expecting the mdr to change as the season progress so active season we go
Let's agree to disagree.....
Quoting 506. weatherman994:

Washingtonian again this is only the beginning of the season I'm expecting the mdr to change as the season progress so active season we go



this will be a vary in active season dont look for any thing in tell AUG not sure what you are seeing that will make this a active season but but what ever it is that you are looking at its not happening this year ever hurricane season is not the same this year will likey be vary close two last year or even a bit be low am seeing 6 two 8 name storms this year wish will make it be low norml season
Quoting 499. Elvinista:

Yeah, it's "bold" as in beyond the scope of law as are many actions of this President. Many Americans who can't afford it will pay more for power. Masters, maybe all are not as affluent as you and many of your bloggers. The benefit, a pie in the sky reduction of CO2 that may reduce temps a fraction in 50 years? The US has already reduced emissions using more natural gas because of market forces, NOT government fiat. Solar and wind will not replace fossil fuels anytime soon. You climate worshippers would like to see NO fossil fuels and the Hell with living standards and the economy. It must be nice to be that affluent. The global warming movement has become a pagan religion with its' followers opposing ANY economic advancement that isn't "green." When will you begin construction of temples to worship the earth mother?
For once somebody with a level head and a sustainable argument on the subject... People here in full possession of real and rational thought know that it will take time for our country to lessen its need for oil foreign and domestic, they are not fricken pagan Earth worshipers or fanatical AGW soldiers trying to shove every greenhouse gas in America,s face. Most here and elsewhere , whether you believe that or not , want clean air, water and environment, for the well being of there families, and not at the expense of citizens living standards or social status. Other countries are taking realistic steps toward alternative and reusable energy, and there doing it mostly so they have clean air, and are not dependent for there energy needs from some other country, not because of POWER OR GREED.
Quoting jpsb:



It is sad to see Cosmos falling for "bad" science. The "best" science we have suggests that Earth and Venus took different paths in their evolution. As proto planets Earth and Venus's atmosphere were likely very similar. But Earth's early heavy atmosphere was blown away in a massive collision with a Mars sized planet called Theia. Next came the great bombardment which delivered to Earth it's earlier atmosphere and oceans waters. Finally plant life evolved and introduced oxygen into the atmosphere. Ergo only briefly, prior to colliding with Theia, did Earth and Venus have similar atmospheres.

Venus's atmosphere is much thicker than Earth's. The pressure of Venus's atmosphere is about 90 times that of the Earth at the surface and it is composed almost entirely of CO2 (96%). Earth contains 4/10ths of 1 percent CO2.

Cosmos does it's viewers a disservice by presenting propaganda instead of science.

Giant Impact That Formed the Moon Blew Off Earth's Atmosphere

Earth’s Atmosphere Came from Outer Space


Venus also was also hit by a planet-sized object early in its life, roughly the same time as Earth. Note the fact that it takes nearly 243 days for Venus to complete a revolution on its axis, and it does so in the wrong direction. All planets orbit in a counter-clockwise direction, thanks to the fact the protoplanetary disk we came from also orbited in that direction, and they also spin in the same counter-clockwise direction. In that event, Venus' atmosphere might have had a similar evolution to Earth's until the runaway Greenhouse effect started. To call the view that Venus may have held conditions favorable to life "propaganda" is nonsense and does a disservice to people who might be unaware of exactly how our solar system evolved.
we may have are 2nd name storm of the E PAC season here whats see what the nhc thinks about it in the next update the E PAC will be vary vary active this season and we are all ready seeing that


03/1145 UTC 14.8N 94.3W T2.5/2.5 02E -- East Pacific
Stormwatch I understand that but I believe the season will fool A lot of forecasters
Quoting 516. weatherman994:

Stormwatch I understand that but I believe the season will fool A lot of forecasters



you have no proof at all two back that up this will be a below norml hurricane season noaa even said this will be a below norml hurricane season
Quoting 517. Tazmanian:




you have no proof at all two back that up this will be a below norml hurricane season noaa even said this will be a below norml hurricane season


One thing we know for sure ... those agencies can really nail a seasonal forecast.
Quoting 516. weatherman994:

Stormwatch I understand that but I believe the season will fool A lot of forecasters


Based on what?
The general rule, and most correlated/documented observation in Atlantic hurricane meteorology, is the Enso cycle impact on the Atlantic season.  El Nino conditions will result in a below average season (as opposed to an above average year in La Nina periods).  The exact numbers remain to be seen this year but the fact of the matter is that 75% of all Atlantic storms form from Cape Verde systems in the peak and we usually see around 5-6 storms generated every year during the peak period from later August through the end of September.  The above or below average numbers, as dictated by the Enso period in any particular year, usually are the other potential (25%) storms that form in June/July or October/November.  June/July average about 1.7 storms every season so the potential numbers are usually "felt" the most at the back end of the season with early season cut-offs at the end of September in most El Nino years.  This is the general rule, and there is the occasional exception/surprise system, but we should not expect an active back-end this year.  It's the Cape Verde storms, and the particular trajectory for any particular storm, that we need to worry most about this year when shear is lowest in the peak period.
Quoting 404. HimacaneBrees:

Global warming debunked

The Gazette Opinion Staff
Published: March 7 2014 | 11:03 am - Updated: 1 April 2014 | 9:16 am in

By Gary Ellis

--

As an engineer with a background in science and math, I’ve followed the global warming debate for decades.


I find it hard to believe that someone with a background in math and science can get so much wrong in such a short piece.

I found a new twist recently.

Iowa State University Meteorology Professor William J. Gutowski Jr. sent me an Internet page that provided an interesting comment from a climate change activist. The conclusion admits the lack of science behind the issue and proof of its actual nature.


Why would someone with such a solid grounding in science and math have to stoop to the same denialist tactics of misquoting/taking quotes out of context? You would think he would have some careful analysis or at least a plausible theory about how the science of the past two centuries gets it all wrong.


“Whether temperatures have been warmer or colder in the past is largely irrelevant to the impacts of the ongoing warming. If you don’t care about humans and the other species here, global warming may not be all that important; nature has caused warmer and colder times in the past, and life survived. But, those warmer and colder times did not come when there were almost seven billion people living as we do. …. ” (see http://www.skepticalscience.com/print.php?r=337, Dr. Richard Alley, Evan Pugh Professor of Geosciences, Wisconsin-Madison,

The author admits that science is irrelevant in his argument. Further admitting that the science and data shows that the Earth may actually be trending toward global cooling. The author has distilled the argument into what we already knew: It’s not about good science, it’s about their “good intentions.” State Sen. Rob Hogg confirmed to me that is his motivation.


Where's the science? Where's the math? Where's the physics? Is this not an engineer with a background in science in math? I was expecting that someone of this "caliber" would produce something with at least a shred of scientific veracity.

But no, instead he comes up with his own purely made up BS summary and intepretation to validate his personal beliefs without so much as an equation. No science, no math, just his own biased unsubstantiated opinion. At best, this makes makes Mr. Ellis look like a charlatan, just another denier without any substance.

There are several reasons we should be cautious about regarding this theory.

First, the global warming advocates use the inflammatory statement — “the hottest on record” — to try and justify their position. Science isn’t about a flat Earth mentality. The Earth’s long geological and climate history is millions of years old. It includes seven ice ages in 700,00 years. Using 150 years (of records kept) is an unscientific comparison that is statistically insignificant. The probability of a theory being right based on 150 years of data is essentially zero.


Apparently Mr. Ellis needs to go back to school because his "background in science and math" is pretty poor. It is clear he does not have any understanding of the science or research that has been done on the topic. He talks about paleoclimate as if he just came up with the concept himself and scientists are too stupid to understand it's significance. Well, sorry Mr. Ellis but paleoclimate studies have been happening since the 1800's. It's a well researched topic, and has lead to a better understanding of the Earth's climate system and what affects it.

Second, every extreme weather event they point to has happened before. After Hurricane Katrina, they harangued about large storms — what happened, fewer storms. They predicted the Arctic ice sheet would melt, it has gotten bigger and now the Great Lakes are freezing over. It takes 500 years to reveal a 500-year flood, not 150 years.


So now not only does Mr. Ellis the engineer reveal that he has poor math and science knowledge, he now shows that he has demonstrable lack in in honesty. The arctic ice sheet is gaining ice? That goes beyond ignorance and straight into unbelievable stupidity.

So far, I'm not impressed by Mr. Ellis.

Third, their computer models are unable to simulate and predict what is happening. They predict global atmospheric temperatures rising but in the last 15 years, global atmospheric temperatures are level. The reason they are wrong is that they don’t have command of all the environmental variables.


This tired old piece of garbage? Seriously? How many times do we need to go over this? Did his background in math leave out statistics or something?

Mr. Ellis doesn't have a background in math and science. He has a background in believing what he wants and backing that up with whatever he feels is convenient, regardless of whether it is true or not.

Professor Gutkowski has confirmed that they cannot make decade-by-decade predictions. This winter is an example of natural and normal climate change, temperatures go up and they go down, sometimes to extremes.


Of course they can't make decade by decade predictions. If you and Mr. Ellis actually would read about climate science instead of deismissing everything out of hand you might understand WHY the typical climate period is 30 years and not 10 years. You might as well throw out meteorology because it can't predict what's going to happen next month.

Fourth, we know that some of the people leading these arguments have cooked the books. There exist emails proving that they manipulated climate data. The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is a “consensus” report in name only; they do not publish sound science that challenges their political opinions.


Again, nothing but pure BS. Lies and more lies straight from conspiracy/nutter land. If this guy wants any sort of credibility he's going to have to stop using the WUWT playbook.

Fifth, they don’t believe in their own solutions. Activists admit that the changes they propose will not appreciably reduce the trend they forecast. The only solution to their claims is for the entire world to stop using fossil fuels. Can you imagine what that would be like?


I thought this was supposed to be about the science. So far, I haven't seen anything about the science. I've seen a bunch of of lies, twisted quotes, half-truths, and statements that demonstrate Mr. Ellis would gain a lot of benefit from taking a couple of introductory math and physics courses.

Now he's creating a strawman so he can charge at it valiantly. If he has such a tight case, he wouldn't need to resort to inanity like this to try and make his point.

Good intentions is not a reason to wipe out our entire economy. Good public policy says we need to gather much more information and create real, sound science based on data that can be confirmed to make accurate predictions.


We have and we do. The problem here is that people like Mr. Ellis simply don't like the results. Well Mr. Ellis, science is not a popularity contest. You can't throw out science you disagree with simply because you don't like it. It is clear that Mr. Ellis doesn't have a clue about the work done in the climate community, nor is he aware of the history of climate science. He seems to think that climate science is all about global warming and that it was all created in the last couple of decades (which is, of course, simply not true).

In the meantime, we should be good stewards of the environment. We can continue working on clean air, water and soil without sacrificing our economy and freedom to a hysterical myth.



Read more: http://thegazette.com/2014/03/07/global-warming-de bunked/#ixzz33YOK1igx


Link



Once again, I'm disappointed as yet another denialist debunking amounts to nothing more the lies, ignorance, and stupidity. There wasn't a single reference to any research to back up his claims. There was no mathematical basis he was constructing a case from. It was all just rehashed nonsense that is the usual fare the can be found on any denialist site. There's nothing in this travesty that debunks global warming, let alone the 200 years of climate science that's used as a basis for it.
Quoting 499. Elvinista:

Yeah, it's "bold" as in beyond the scope of law as are many actions of this President. Many Americans who can't afford it will pay more for power. Masters, maybe all are not as affluent as you and many of your bloggers. The benefit, a pie in the sky reduction of CO2 that may reduce temps a fraction in 50 years? The US has already reduced emissions using more natural gas because of market forces, NOT government fiat. Solar and wind will not replace fossil fuels anytime soon. You climate worshippers would like to see NO fossil fuels and the Hell with living standards and the economy. It must be nice to be that affluent. The global warming movement has become a pagan religion with its' followers opposing ANY economic advancement that isn't "green." When will you begin construction of temples to worship the earth mother?


Yeah, we know: we can't do anything about climate change because to do so will destroy the American economy.

Sigh.

Alarmists always trot out the same tired cliches and arguments every single time regulation is suggested. These corporate-led, ideologically-blinded Chicken Littles run in aimless circles screaming that any attempt to make the world a safer place to live by clamping down on certain industrial practices is going to cause the sky to fall, millions to lose their jobs, endanger our way of life, and so on, and so forth. Only it never happens.

It. Never. Happens.

We were told that protecting the ozone layer through the regulation of fluorocarbons would bankrupt entire industries and nations.

Didn't happen.

We were told that fighting acid rain would make the cost of electricity prohibitive and make industry "die a quite death."

Didn't happen.

We were told that the imposition of the Clean Air Act in the 1970s would force US automobile manufacturers to shut down.

Didn't happen.

We were told that saving tens of thousands of lives each year by making seat belts mandatory would destroy US automobile manufacturing.

Didn't happen.

We were told just a few years back that forcing coal plants to cut down on sulfur dioxide emissions would cost jobs, crush state economies, and see energy prices spike.

Didn't happen.

I could go on, of course--there are about a million more examples--but why bother? Pro-pollution alarmists have never had much credibility, and they've got even less now.
Quoting 515. Tazmanian:

we may have are 2nd name storm of the E PAC season here whats see what the nhc thinks about it in the next update the E PAC will be vary vary active this season and we are all ready seeing that


03/1145 UTC 14.8N 94.3W T2.5/2.5 02E -- East Pacific

Well, the new 12z ATCF update has the pressure down 2mb to 1000, but winds still 30kts.

EP, 02, 2014060312, , BEST, 0, 144N, 943W, 30, 1000, TD

It's not out of the question they up it to minimal TS strength though, as those numbers you posted would support that and the ADT numbers are in the 40kts range.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 /1000.6mb/ 41.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.8 2.9 2.9
Stormwatch based on the failed predictions from every year during the seasons things always tend to change
FIM 7


FIM 8


FIM 9

Quoting 510. Smikey:

Its a shame living in PA watching gas companies "industrialize" incredibly large amounts of natural lands to extract Natural Gas so we can migrate off of %u2018dirty%u2019 coal. Coal is bad, its needs to be replaced, but this whole push by POTUS will only shift who becomes the environmental losers. This recent effort is no free ride, only rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.



Later edit- I do agree with the new regulation, and am elated that our president has proposed it. I can see your point, however. Moving from one dirty energy source toanother doesn't help.

I rather agree with you- while Gov. Tomblin of W by god V to your south appears on national news this morning in defense of the coal fields, fracking continues at a merry pace in the north-central part of the state. Looks like we all lose.
Well, good morning. I see the tone in here is the usual pleasant and inspiring...
Quoting 527. NttyGrtty:

Well, good morning. I see the tone in here is the usual pleasant and inspiring...


I have been here 8 years and yesterday and this morning is the most I have contributed to my ignore list..I know I added at least 30 names..my blogging experience is quite enjoyable now..I'm here for tropical/severe weather discussion only..

Remember it only takes one storm to make it an "active season" for someone.
Lol and here is the new one! :P Off to work have a good day everyone!
Quoting 529. ncstorm:



I have been here 8 years and yesterday and this morning is the most I have contributed to my ignore list..I know I added at least 30 names..my blogging experience is quite enjoyable now..I'm here for tropical/severe weather discussion only..




Did I make it through the ignore purge? :)
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Lol and here is the new one! :P Off to work have a good day everyone!


Hmmm so it could south, north, or west. That narrows it down! :o)
Quoting 532. Naga5000:



Did I make it through the ignore purge? :)


If he doesn't respond then that will answer your question.
Quoting 497. StormWx:



Great Blog Scott! Always insightful and just as good as the NWS reports.

Gee Duane. I sense a lil sarcasm with your post.
Quoting 529. ncstorm:



I have been here 8 years and yesterday and this morning is the most I have contributed to my ignore list..I know I added at least 30 names..my blogging experience is quite enjoyable now..I'm here for tropical/severe weather discussion only..



If that's all you want included, then you won't have a place to comment, because you'd have to ignore Dr. Masters' very posts. Ironic how that works out.
Quoting 516. weatherman994:

Stormwatch I understand that but I believe the season will fool A lot of forecasters


Maybe

I personally believe that something will happen to that EL Niño and it's forecast that not many people touched on I think it just may very well happen I am already starting to see the very early beginning stages of it now I want to wait a few months well more like until the end of July maybe early August before letting the cat out of the bag
But in the mean time we sit and watch and maybe some of you will see it eventually during the next few weeks or month or so
Have to go off for some work myself.  Also note that there is no observed correlation between the June/July storm numbers and the outcome of the rest of the season (given the very climatology low numbers for those months). Thus, whether we get 1-3 storms between now and mid-August, it will boil down to how many storm "clusters" we get in the peak period off of Africa and how high sheer gets/how low sst's fall in the Western Caribbean/BOC/Gulf of Mexico when the action shifts back to those regions in late September/October and November.

See Yall later this afternoon.
Quoting 532. Naga5000:



Did I make it through the ignore purge? :)


yes..but you skating on thin ice :)
Quoting 526. goosegirl1:




Later edit- I do agree with the new regulation, and am elated that our president has proposed it. I can see your point, however. Moving from one dirty energy source toanother doesn't help.

I rather agree with you- while Gov. Tomblin of W by god V to your south appears on national news this morning in defense of the coal fields, fracking continues at a merry pace in the north-central part of the state. Looks like we all lose.

You have some INSANE biomass number in West Virginia, Cathy. Gotta keep those frackers out those. "Don't frack our future generation for greed"!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting 529. ncstorm:



I have been here 8 years and yesterday and this morning is the most I have contributed to my ignore list..I know I added at least 30 names..my blogging experience is quite enjoyable now..I'm here for tropical/severe weather discussion only..




I'm 100% for cleaning the air. All you have to do is look at China and see how bad it is. But I am with you on this blog. I love to talk tropical weather which it what this blog is supposed to be about. However, Dr. Masters is driving this to be more of a CC blog (in which we have Dr. Roods) and because of that, the fun of talking tropics here is just about gone.
Quoting 533. StormWx:



Hmmm so it could south, north, or west. That narrows it down! :o)

It could also hit Northeast Florida Duane. Don't count your chickens before they hatch, chief.
Quoting 541. luvtogolf:



I'm 100% for cleaning the air. All you have to do is look at China and see how bad it is. But I am with you on this blog. I love to talk tropical weather which it what this blog is supposed to be about. However, Dr. Masters is driving this to be more of a CC blog (in which we have Dr. Roods) and because of that, the fun of talking tropics here is just about gone.

Long gone. Have been here since 2005 (my previous handle was wxnut1970), but this blog has deteriorated to high heaven. I'll keep hope though.
the aussies have released their ENSO update this morning.....their summary is listed below


Tropical Pacific Ocean remains on track for El Niño in 2014
Issued on Tuesday 3 June 2014 | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO
The tropical Pacific Ocean remains on track for El Niño in 2014, with just over half of the climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggesting El Niño will become established by August. An El Niño ALERT remains in place, indicating at least a 70% chance of an El Niño developing in 2014.
Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean have increased steadily since February, and are now greater than +0.5 °C in the key NINO regions. However, above-average SSTs also extend into the western tropical Pacific, meaning strong west to east gradients in tropical Pacific SST anomalies are yet to become established. As a result, atmospheric indicators—such as the Southern Oscillation Index and trade winds—have only shown a weak response.
For Australia, El Niño is often associated with below-average rainfall over southern and eastern inland areas and above-normal daytime temperatures over southern parts of the continent. It is not uncommon to see some impacts prior to an event becoming fully established. May rainfall was below normal across parts of eastern Australia and maximum temperatures were above normal across much of the south and east.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. Model outlooks suggest the IOD is most likely to remain neutral through winter, with two of the five models surveyed suggesting a positive IOD may develop during spring. Positive IOD events often coincide with El Niño and are typically associated with large parts of southern and central Australia experiencing lower rainfall than usual.
Quoting 530. southernema:

Remember it only takes one storm to make it an "active season" for someone.

Umm no
It only takes one to be a "destructive season"
But for it to be an "active season" the storm numbers have to surpass either the forecasted season numbers or the average season numbers

Quoting 533. StormWx:



Hmmm so it could south, north, or west. That narrows it down! :o)

That's GFS and it ensembles for ya
548. Ylee
Anybody catch this on NPR this morning, or is this old news?

Female hurricanes are deadlier than male hurricanes
Quoting 546. wunderkidcayman:


Umm no
It only takes one to be a "destructive season"
But for it to be an "active season" the storm numbers have to surpass either the forecasted season numbers or the average season numbers


That's GFS and it ensembles for ya

You couldn't more more correct, Kid. Folks on here drool and salivate over a 2005 season hoping to see some action. But I tell ya it only takes a boring 1992 season. And I think we all remember what went down that August. ;-)
Quoting 548. Ylee:

Anybody catch this on NPR this morning, or is this old news?

Female hurricanes are deadlier than male hurricanes

Camile, Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Jeanne, Carla, Sandy. MUST I GO ON YEE-LEE!
interesting tid bit in looking at SST's...while the 3.4 region is did average at .5 above average.....for a three month means...we would have to see quite a rise in the 3.4 anomaly to balance out april...

here's their comment about SST's

Weekly sea surface temperatures
The SST anomaly map for the week ending 1 June is similar to that of two weeks ago, although warm SST anomalies are now seen across the entire tropical Pacific. Warm SST anomalies are also seen across large areas of western Pacific from the East China Sea to the waters surrounding Australia. These warm anomalies extend into the Indian Ocean.
While the warm tongue of water extending along the equator in the eastern and central Pacific is typical of an emerging El Niño, the warm anomalies in the western Pacific mean the west to east gradient of temperatures is not yet large enough to generate and sustain a typical El Niño response in the tropical atmosphere.



although i do expect that we will reach an el nino event...this is a bit reminiscent of 2012

luvto: It's Dr. Master's blog. It says so right at the top of the page. He can drive it anywhere he wants
the SOI is still not showing signs of el nino....while it started to drop finally end of april into may....it's rising once again....and is now at 6.2......8 would typically mean we were in a la nina and negative 8 is typically shown during an el nino event


Southern Oscillation Index
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has risen over the past two weeks but remains within neutral values. The latest approximate 30-day SOI value to 1 June is +6.2.
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
554. JRRP
and here is what i believe to be the driving force as to why things have slowed to a crawl with development....tradewinds are average....we need some blowing towards the east

Trade winds
Trade winds are near-average across the tropical Pacific (see anomaly map for the 5 days ending 1 June).
During La Niña events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.
Quoting 552. ACSeattle:

luvto: It's Dr. Master's blog. It says so right at the top of the page. He can drive it anywhere he wants


Is it a blog rule against providing Dr. Master feedback on his content?
Quoting ricderr:
the aussies have released their ENSO update this morning.....their summary is listed below


Tropical Pacific Ocean remains on track for El Niño in 2014
Issued on Tuesday 3 June 2014 | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO
The tropical Pacific Ocean remains on track for El Niño in 2014, with just over half of the climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggesting El Niño will become established by August. An El Niño ALERT remains in place, indicating at least a 70% chance of an El Niño developing in 2014.


Yep thats been my forecast all along, Aug/Sept timeframe for the official El Nino. IMO it will be a weak to possibly moderate. We'll have to wait and see if the 3.4 region can hold that 0.5C for 3 months, so far it hasnt been able too.
clouds are average also....i want at some update to say how many unicorn clouds they saw...but i'm pretty sure they're all science types...and they don't have the best sense of humors


Cloudiness near the Date Line
Cloudiness near the Date Line has continued to fluctuate around values close to the long-term average during the past two weeks.
Cloudiness along the equator, near the Date Line, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Niño event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Niña event.
Quoting 551. ricderr:

interesting tid bit in looking at SST's...while the 3.4 region is did average at .5 above average.....for a three month means...we would have to see quite a rise in the 3.4 anomaly to balance out april...

here's their comment about SST's

Weekly sea surface temperatures
The SST anomaly map for the week ending 1 June is similar to that of two weeks ago, although warm SST anomalies are now seen across the entire tropical Pacific. Warm SST anomalies are also seen across large areas of western Pacific from the East China Sea to the waters surrounding Australia. These warm anomalies extend into the Indian Ocean.
While the warm tongue of water extending along the equator in the eastern and central Pacific is typical of an emerging El Niño, the warm anomalies in the western Pacific mean the west to east gradient of temperatures is not yet large enough to generate and sustain a typical El Niño response in the tropical atmosphere.



although i do expect that we will reach an el nino event...this is a bit reminiscent of 2012



Which ended up ditching it and going back to neutral cool to La Niña

Quoting 553. ricderr:

the SOI is still not showing signs of el nino....while it started to drop finally end of april into may....it's rising once again....and is now at 6.2......8 would typically mean we were in a la nina and negative 8 is typically shown during an el nino event


Southern Oscillation Index
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has risen over the past two weeks but remains within neutral values. The latest approximate 30-day SOI value to 1 June is +6.2.
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.


This is part of what I see happening that could change up the El Niño a bit as I stated earlier I ain't letting the cat out of the bag just yet
Quoting ricderr:
and here is what i believe to be the driving force as to why things have slowed to a crawl with development....tradewinds are average....we need some blowing towards the east

Trade winds
Trade winds are near-average across the tropical Pacific (see anomaly map for the 5 days ending 1 June).
During La Niña events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.


The one blogger who says we are in El Nino today may need to re-think it lol, I havent heard much from that blogger about the Kelvin wave in a while, it must not be impressive at the moment :o) And i guess all those warm anomalies are not surfacing.
Quoting 554. JRRP:



Wow lol drops down to below 0.5 and is near 0.0 by Aug
look at the means....again....i'm still of the mind we will reach el nino conditions....but that limb that was strong weeks ago....is a slight bit narrower


Quoting 552. ACSeattle:

luvto: It's Dr. Master's blog. It says so right at the top of the page. He can drive it anywhere he wants


I'm completely aware of that - it's his blog. But unfortunately for those of us who's passion is tropical weather he's driving it to a CC blog (which is other peoples passion).
564. JRRP
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Wow lol drops down to below 0.5 and is near 0.0 by Aug

yeah
Yep thats been my forecast all along, Aug/Sept timeframe for the official El Nino. IMO it will be a weak to possibly moderate. We'll have to wait and see if the 3.4 region can hold that 0.5C for 3 months, so far it hasnt been able too.

well stormy....if you remember.....before we entered the spring where models still perform terribly....models showed the most likely of late august to september
The one blogger who says we are in El Nino today may need to re-think it lol, I havent heard much from that blogger about the Kelvin wave in a while, it must not be impressive at the moment :o) And i guess all those warm anomalies are not surfacing.


i try not going there...it's so embarassing it's just sad
Interesting FIM 7 model projections. Still showing what appears to be a tropical/hybrid cyclone traversing the FL Peninsula on 6/11/14. This is the same day (and general area) a couple of the models were showing several days ago.
Quoting 544. GeoffreyWPB:


a ton of moisture heading for us huh...................................
Oh Lawdy:

Hurricanes with feminine names cause more damage than storms with masculine names: study

What’s in a name?

Apparently, when it comes to hurricanes, a lot.

A recent study conducted by researchers at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign found that, for Atlantic Coast hurricanes in the U.S., storms with feminine names lead to more deaths than those with masculine names.

The best explanation for this, according to the Economist, is that people do not take hurricanes with women’s names as seriously as storms with men’s names. The researchers actually tested this theory — and produced supporting results.

They picked five male and five female names from the list to be used for this year’s hurricanes and asked 350 people to predict a fictional storm’s strength and intensity based solely on the names.

People predicted “male” hurricanes would do more damage than “female” storms, the study found.

A second study found that perceived risk from a fictional report about a hurricane in which only the name varied was higher when that name was masculine.

Several more experiments conducted by the researchers found similar results — effectively, that people are more likely to take hurricanes with masculine names seriously.

Should meteorological authorities re-evaluate how they name storms? Storms were given exclusively male names until 1953. Another alternative: dropping the human names altogether. Before they were given human names, hurricanes were described by names from the phonetic alphabet used by the armed forces.

Link
Quoting 525. SFLWeatherman:

FIM 7


FIM 8


FIM 9


wow thanks for posting this..seems we are in for something,surely alot of rain regadless of winds etc...
Quoting 524. weatherman994:

Stormwatch based on the failed predictions from every year during the seasons things always tend to change


Things could change, it possibly will :)

For example, the 2014 hurricane season might start off like the 2002 or 1997 Atlantic Hurricane seasons. Both seasons started off fairly busy, and then El Nino kicked in ... later in the year, and then, the "busy season," was suddenly shut down. Whether this scenario is going to happen in the Atlantic (in 2014), is yet to be seen.

After Hurricane Lili formed in Sept 2002 (weak to moderate El Nino kicked in), the season was shut down, as nothing formed in October 2002, or after that.

Same for 1997, by the end of July 1997, we saw 4 named Atlantic storms form, but ended up with only 7 named storms that year... (a STRONG EL Nino formed by mid-summer).

Both years only produced 7 total hurricanes in the Atlantic basin combined, but along the US Gulf Coast, we saw the landfalls of: Hurricane Lili , Isidore (hit LA as TS, but both storms had their names retired), Hannah, and Fay. T.S, Kyle brushed the Carolinas (2002); and Hurricane Danny (1997).




EPA finally gets U.S. into climate game: Our View

It's not how much comes out of every smokestack but the total amount of emissions.

In recent weeks, the scientific warnings about global warming have been coming in faster than a line of summer thunderstorms. Authoritative studies have documented rising sea levels, "irreversible" ice sheet melting, a northward migration of the tropics, and climate-induced conflict and instability.

There's no guarantee that the Obama administration's new limits on carbon emissions from existing power plants, announced Monday, can reverse these ominous trends. Global warming is, by definition, a global problem. So even if America meets the administration's goal of a 30% reduction from 2005 levels by 2030, the U.S. reductions will be swamped by increases elsewhere if other big polluters don't follow suit.

Does this mean the new rules aren't worth the effort? Hardly. If the plan survives the inevitable political and legal assaults, it will prevent a not-inconsequential hundreds of millions of tons of heat-trapping carbon dioxide from entering the atmosphere. It will make renewables such as solar and wind power more competitive with fossil fuels. And it will improve public health at home by reducing soot and smog-forming emissions from coal-burning power plants, the largest source of greenhouse gases.

NATIONAL MINING ASSOCIATION: A better pathway

Most important, the proposal will give the United States, the world's second largest carbon emitter after China, far more leverage in upcoming international climate talks. "Every country is watching what every other country is doing," says David Doniger, director of the climate and clean air program at the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), which proposed a strategy similar to the one the Environmental Protection Agency announced. "This is the United States' way to show it is in the game."

Because a head-in-the-sand Congress has refused to put a price on carbon pollution, the administration opted for the next best approach. The EPA is using its authority under the Clean Air Act to set state standards, based on their energy mixes. States can use a variety of ways to meet their goals. These flexible rules recognize that what's important is not how much comes out of every smokestack, but the total amount of emissions. This is not a new idea: California and nine Northeast states already have "cap-and-trade" programs that limit overall emissions but allow polluters to buy government-issued credits from clean-energy producers.

Even before the new EPA rules were announced, they set off the usual flurry of warring economic prognostications. Business groups warned of skyrocketing utility bills and job losses. The NRDC and other environmental groups claim that electric bills will actually drop, and that new green-energy jobs will replace lost coal-related ones.

Who's right? The history of environmental regulations has been that the biggest scare stories haven't panned out. Cleaner air and cleaner water have been achieved at manageable costs. But it's reasonable to conclude that the new regulations will cause electric rates to rise in some regions, particularly in coal-dependent states such as Kentucky, Wyoming, West Virginia, Indiana and North Dakota.

That's part of the price of an accelerating shift away from coal toward natural gas and renewables. Perhaps the new standards will make clean-coal and carbon recapture technologies more economically feasible. And perhaps low-income energy assistance could be increased to consumers in coal-dependent places to help ease the transition. In any case, a singular focus on electric bills overlooks the high costs of inaction for taxpayers everywhere — in storm damage, sea wall construction and drought relief.

There's a tiny chance, of course, that the scientific consensus on human-induced climate disruption is too alarmist. But there's also a chance that it might be too conservative, that scientists are being overly cautious for fear of being labeled alarmist.

Prudent risk management involves leaving a margin for error when the fate of the planet is at risk. It involves preparing for the worst and hoping for the best. So far, the nation's policy has mainly involved preparing for the best case scenarios and hoping against the worst ones.

Monday's announcement marks the start of a far saner approach for the United States, one that will resonate globally.

USA TODAY's editorial opinions are decided by its Editorial Board, separate from the news staff. Most editorials are coupled with an opposing view — a unique USA TODAY feature.
A recent study conducted by researchers at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign found that, for Atlantic Coast hurricanes in the U.S., storms with feminine names lead to more deaths than those with masculine names.

The best explanation for this, according to the Economist, is that people do not take hurricanes with women’s names as seriously as storms with men’s names. The researchers actually tested this theory — and produced supporting results.



come on...this is stupid
Quoting ricderr:
A recent study conducted by researchers at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign found that, for Atlantic Coast hurricanes in the U.S., storms with feminine names lead to more deaths than those with masculine names.

The best explanation for this, according to the Economist, is that people do not take hurricanes with women’s names as seriously as storms with men’s names. The researchers actually tested this theory — and produced supporting results.



come on...this is stupid


What is stupid is that someone actually funded the study, as small as it was lol. But hey if there is a Cat 5 bearing down on Wekiva Springs named Bertha I may not evacuate, but heck if its named Cristobal i am outta here. :o)
576. 7544
Quoting 568. LargoFl:

a ton of moisture heading for us huh...................................
morning everyone yep yep its that time of the  year again p it be interesting  to see  if that moisture makes  it over  to the east  coast latter on today .

Quoting 541. luvtogolf:



I'm 100% for cleaning the air. All you have to do is look at China and see how bad it is. But I am with you on this blog. I love to talk tropical weather which it what this blog is supposed to be about. However, Dr. Masters is driving this to be more of a CC blog (in which we have Dr. Roods) and because of that, the fun of talking tropics here is just about gone.
You yourself could help the situation you are decrying: Ignore the climate change discussions and actively post on the subject of tropical weather and storms -- study the meteorology of the tropics and contribute to the knowledge base of tropical meteorology. Tip the balance more toward tropical discussions by discussing tropical weather more!
What is stupid is that someone actually funded the study, as small as it was lol. But hey if there is a Cat 5 bearing down on Wekiva Springs named Bertha I may not evacuate, but heck if its named Cristobal i am outta here. :o)


funny...as dumb as your comment is...it's exactly what they are saying......worse thing...there is a populace...that will be lieve it to boot
One has to recognize Phodder fer Phool's.

And as expected by NHC
12Z sfc maps put a stationary low 1005mb goin 1006mb


However NHC also predicts the low to dissipate
In 72hrs or just a little less than 72hrs
You yourself could help the situation you are decrying: Ignore the climate change discussions and actively post on the subject of tropical weather and storms -- study the meteorology of the tropics and contribute to the knowledge base of tropical meteorology. Tip the balance more toward tropical discussions by discussing tropical weather more!


there's another alternative.....one that i don't actually suggest as i remain loyal to WU...but you can google the screen names of some past bloggers who were quite reputable and follow their posts at their new blogsites.....i'm hoping your idea works though
Quoting 579. Patrap:

One has to recognize Phodder fer Phool's.


Off topic..They just showed on CNN people in restaurants carrying assault rifles..This new gun law is going to be serious trouble.
584. FOREX
Quoting 581. wunderkidcayman:

And as expected by NHC
12Z sfc maps put a stationary low 1005mb goin 1006mb


However NHC also predicts the low to dissipate
In 72hrs or just a little less than 72hrs



So then NHC isn't buying the GFS in forming a possible storm?
Quoting 566. ricderr:

The one blogger who says we are in El Nino today may need to re-think it lol, I havent heard much from that blogger about the Kelvin wave in a while, it must not be impressive at the moment :o) And i guess all those warm anomalies are not surfacing.


i try not going there...it's so embarassing it's just sad


Wise not to go there. It isn't worth it.
It's not how much comes out of every smokestack but the total amount of emissions.
So developing a monitoring system to measure  the level of pollutants emerging into both our air and water from industrial sources then taxing them by the amount they output.  Might provide an incentive to clean up a little faster.
Quoting 581. wunderkidcayman:

And as expected by NHC
12Z sfc maps put a stationary low 1005mb goin 1006mb


However NHC also predicts the low to dissipate
In 72hrs or just a little less than 72hrs


Which does not surprise me one bit because it's currently in 40kts shear and increasing
Quoting 584. FOREX:



So then NHC isn't buying the GFS in forming a possible storm?

Well not in the BOC or SW GOM
And not in 72hrs or less
Quoting 587. wunderkidcayman:


Which does not surprise me one bit because it's currently in 40kts shear and increasing

In the BOC
In the BOC

serious for a minute...so please don't get me wrong...but can you give us a synopsis as to why your earlier forecast did not come to fruition?
Quoting 568. LargoFl:

a ton of moisture heading for us huh...................................

Seems odd that the forecast for our area went from higher rain chances for the next ten days to less than 20% for the next ten days since yesterday's forecast.
Quoting 583. hydrus:

Off topic..They just showed on CNN people in restaurants carrying assault rifles..This new gun law is going to be serious trouble.
I have a order of fish and chips don't worry about my ak 47 that's just in case the fish moves
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Well not in the BOC or SW GOM
And not in 72hrs or less


Where do you think? Near Cayman? :o)
on the local front we broke yesterdays heat record with a whopping 104 degrees....today we're looking at topping out at about 107....breaking another heat record for the date....things stay quite toasty through the weekend.......yes it's warm...but typical.....june averages 15 days of weather over 100 degrees
02E/TD/XX/XX
Quoting 594. ricderr:

on the local front we broke yesterdays heat record with a whopping 104 degrees....today we're looking at topping out at about 107....breaking another heat record for the date....things stay quite toasty through the weekend.......yes it's warm...but typical.....june averages 15 days of weather over 100 degrees
what about the tumble weeds seeing any of those
precip forecast tosses the finger at the tropics models....


Quoting 590. ricderr:

In the BOC

serious for a minute...so please don't get me wrong...but can you give us a synopsis as to why your earlier forecast did not come to fruition?

What makes you think that it did not?
It's doing what I expected


Quoting 593. StormWx:



Where do you think? Near Cayman? :o)

No
You've been flagged
what about the tumble weeds seeing any of those


wind has died down.......so they're there...just waiting.....there's a decent chance of thunderstorms in the mountains this afternoon....if they materialize we could see dry but gusty conditions here......with temps in the mid 100's...and gusts at 25-30...it will be like a blast furnace

Going to HOT this weekend.... Good Day WU'ers
Stormwatch or this season maybe similar to 2004 or even 2012 when an el nino was expected but that year ended up tying 2010 and 2011
Quoting 584. FOREX:



So then NHC isn't buying the GFS in forming a possible storm?


This is a wait and see situation. The models have been all over the place for over a week.
Nice cooler and dry temps today, much better than last week.

We probably have WU hooers that are toting when they blog.
Quoting ricderr:
precip forecast tosses the finger at the tropics models....




Rut Roh, you mean the 384 hour out models arent going to verify? FL wont be 'slammed' with flooding rains? Thats a good thing, we dont need a system dumping rain on us for days.
Okay, the latest GFS Run has a Tropical Storm slamming into the Southwest Coast of Florida next Wednesday in the vicinity of Naples-Everglades City. Now might be the time to prepare and avoid the rush. As far as canned goods go I personally recommend Progresso's Chicken and Rice soup and Heinz Vegetarian Beans. Both of these items can be cooked on your portable Sterno Cooker. Enjoy!
Quoting 563. luvtogolf:



I'm completely aware of that - it's his blog. But unfortunately for those of us who's passion is tropical weather he's driving it to a CC blog (which is other peoples passion).
there is an open form of subjects related to weather climate and influences surrounding it allows for many different blog postings
"What makes you think that it did not?
It's doing what I expected"

Man, you have me confused. Doing what you expected??
Quoting 601. weatherman994:

Stormwatch or this season maybe similar to 2004 or even 2012 when an el nino was expected but that year ended up tying 2010 and 2011


I'm leaning more on 04 then 12 but yeah both years

Quoting 602. jrweatherman:



This is a wait and see situation. The models have been all over the place for over a week.

True but there is a distinct trend starting
And that's E and S
Ending up more in Central and/or South Florida rather than Central and/or North Florida
Well I wasn't having an issue with NOAA sites yesterday, but I am this morning. The SPC outlooks haven't updated for me and none of the NOAA satellite loops are recent (last frame is 0415z).
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 584. FOREX:



So then NHC isn't buying the GFS in forming a possible storm?
To early to make any solid forecasts I reckon.
Interesting.....


GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF IS SUPPORTING A
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN BASIN FROM 25N92W TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 17N94W. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE BASIN BEING
ADVECTED FROM THE E PAC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG WITH
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS E OF 90W AS WELL AS S OF 22N E OF
95W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND W ATLC
ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS...ONE OVER
NORTHERN GEORGIA AND ANOTHER NEAR 33N75W. THIS RIDGE EXTENDS SW
INTO THE EASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN GULF TO SUPPORT SE WIND FLOW
OF 5-15 KT...EXCEPT FOR THE SW GULF WHERE A TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT SUPPORT WINDS OF 20-25 KT E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. EXCEPT
FOR THE SW GULF...RIDGING ALONG WITH 5-15 KT E-SE WIND FLOW WILL
DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SW GULF ON WED
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT SURFACE TROUGH.
RAINSHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE SW AND NE GULF THROUGH THU
MORNING.

and so is this...

One of the potential issues we should be looking at down the road during the season is the current warm pool in the Gulf.  It is a rather large one this year so any storms traversing over it would get a little boost; assuming that shear also cooperated.  It could be a factor later in September on any storms threading the needle through the Yucatan Channel.http://www.esl.lsu.edu/static/pics/gvar/Gulf_Weekly/latest_weeksstssh.gif
Quoting 608. jrweatherman:

"What makes you think that it did not?
It's doing what I expected"

Man, you have me confused. Doing what you expected??

I was expecting as well as NHC a low to form in the BOC but nothing happen it weakens(72hrs period).
It's a long trof of low pressure that goes from the BOC to the W Caribbean/GOH(currently with a low pressure center in the BOC),
After it weaken the rest of its energy moves E into the GOH low reforms near East Central to North East Belize and develops moves ENE-NNE towards Yucatan Channel/W Cuba and then to South and/or Central Florida.
Off topic..but wanted to share a youtube video of Florida surfers who just sit there and not head to land??? being surrounded by sharks over the memorial holiday..@ New Smyrna Beach

a href="" target="_blank">Link
Now might be the time to prepare and avoid the rush. As far as canned goods go I personally recommend Progresso's Chicken and Rice soup and Heinz Vegetarian Beans. Both of these items can be cooked on your portable Sterno Cooker. Enjoy!


from someone who's been there and done that....might i reccomend some alternatives...first....make ice......and more ice......the freezer should be packed with it.......no power equals no ac....and unless you have a generator...no fan either.....while soup is nice on many occasions.....when you're hot...it just makes you hotter.....i suggest fruit salad....cool and refreshing....easy on the stomach too


618. flsky
$8 Air Conditioner

Link
Quoting sar2401:

I'm getting the feeling you just enjoy asking about Tampa Bay. Nothing has changed from the last four times I answered you. If a storm makes it to Tampa, it's at least 9 days out, probably more like 12 days. No one knows if any storm will affect Tampa, and if so, by how much.

Sry sar my phone sucks so I ca
Ant see everyones post my bad thnks for answering the question
Once again BOC doing his thing!!
Your support and acceptance of this all time fraud, scam, and hoax is disgraceful. Please respond to the following:
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/blog/2014/ jun/06/97-consensus-global-warming