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The 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:53 PM GMT on June 02, 2014

The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season is officially underway, and we already have an area of interest in the Gulf of Mexico to talk about. An area of low pressure over the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche is generating disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity, and this area has a slight potential to develop late this week. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance a 10% chance of developing by Saturday. The chances for this disturbance to develop depend heavily on the fate of an area of disturbed weather in the Eastern Pacific located a few hundred miles south of Southeast Mexico (Invest 93E), which will move slowly northwards towards the Gulf of Mexico this week. Satellite loops show a steady increase in the intensity and organization of the heavy thunderstorms associated with 93E, and the system is already bringing heavy rains to Southern Guatemala and Southeast Mexico. With the 8 am EDT Monday run of the SHIPS model showing light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots and warm ocean temperatures of 29.5°C for the remainder of the week along 93E's path, development into a tropical depression is likely. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this system an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Wednesday, and a 90% chance by Saturday. The 06Z Monday run of the GFS model predicts that this disturbance will make landfall in Southeast Mexico on Wednesday. The 00Z Monday European model is slower, predicting a Thursday landfall. It is possible that moisture and spin from 93E will aid the spin-up of a system over the Southern Gulf of Mexico late this week. In any case, residents of Southeast Mexico and Western Guatemala appear at risk to undergo a multi-day period of very heavy rainfall likely to cause flash flooding and dangerous mudslides.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 93.

Summary of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season forecasts
The major hurricane forecasting groups are not impressed with this season's potential to be an active one, and are calling for 2014 to be a below average to near-average year for the Atlantic. The most daring forecast was issued by Florida State, which calls for just 7 named storms and 4 hurricanes. The other groups are calling for 9 - 12 named storms. The main reason for the quiet forecasts is the likely emergence of El Niño. Every 3 - 7 years, variations in tropical winds and pressure shift warm ocean waters eastwards from the Western Pacific to the South American coast, causing an El Niño event. The unusually warm water tends to drive an atmospheric circulation that brings strong upper-level winds to the tropical Atlantic, creating high levels of wind shear that tend to tear hurricanes apart. Another factor leading to lower forecast numbers than in previous years is the fact that sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are near average this year--quite a bit cooler than we've seen during the typical year during our active hurricane period that began in 1995.


Figure 2. Departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for May 29, 2014. SSTs were near average over the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the coast of Africa to Central America between 10°N and 20°N, including the Caribbean. As of June 2, 2014, SSTs over the region typically used to define El Niño events, 5°N - 5°S to 120°W - 170°W (the Niño 3.4 region) were at the threshold for El Niño conditions, +0.6°C from average, according to the latest weekly NOAA El Niño update. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.


Figure 3. Surface winds in the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the coast of Africa to Central America between 10°N and 20°N, including the Caribbean, were stronger than average during the first four months of 2014. These winds stirred up more cooler water from the depths than usual, resulting in cooler sea surface temperatures than otherwise would have occurred. The stronger trade winds were due to a persistent positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which strengthened the semi-permanent high pressure system that lies over the Azores Islands, creating a stronger clockwise flow of air around the high. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

NOAA predicts a below-average hurricane season: 10.5 named storms
NOAA's May 22 Atlantic hurricane season forecast predicts a 50% chance of a below-normal season, a 40% chance of an near-normal season, and only a 10% chance of an above-normal season. They predict a 70% chance that there will be 8 - 13 named storms, 3 - 6 hurricanes, and 1 - 2 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 40% - 100% of the median. If we take the midpoint of these numbers, NOAA is calling for 10.5 named storms, 4.5 hurricanes, 1.5 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 70% of normal. This is below the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2013 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 151% of the median.

NOAA cites three key factors influencing their forecast for a below-normal to near-normal hurricane season:

1) An El Niño event is predicted for the summer and fall, which is expected to bring strong wind shear-inducing upper-level winds over the Tropical Atlantic. Vertical wind shear during the past 30 days was stronger than average across much of the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the coast of Africa to the Caribbean. Sinking air at mid-and upper-levels was also stronger than average. The development of El Niño would mean a likely continuation of these non-conducive conditions, and both versions of NOAA's long-range CFS model are predicting enhanced vertical wind shear across the western MDR during August-September-October 2014. Strong vertical wind shear and sinking motion, linked to a rare jet stream pattern of record strength, were key suppressing factors during the unexpectedly quiet 2013 Atlantic hurricane season.

2) Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are near average in the MDR. Many long-range dynamical computer forecast models are predicting that SSTs in the MDR will remain near- or below-average throughout the hurricane season.

3) We are in an active hurricane period that began in 1995, and this positive phase of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) may act to keep hurricane activity higher than it would otherwise be.

Colorado State predicts a below-average hurricane season: 10 named storms
A below-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2014, according to the June 2 seasonal hurricane forecast by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 10 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 1 intense hurricane, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 65, about 2/3 of average. The forecast calls for a below-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (22% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (23% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also below average, at 32% (42% is average.)

CSU's Analogue years: 2009, 2002, 1997, 1965, and 1957
The CSU team picked five previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what they expect for this year: at least moderate El Niño conditions, neutral to slightly cool sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, and a positive phase of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). Those five years were 2009, a quiet year with 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes; 2002, which featured two major hurricanes that got their names retired: Lili and Isidore; 1997, a quiet year with only 8 named storms and 3 hurricanes; 1963, with 9 named storms and 7 hurricanes, including Cuba's deadliest hurricane of all-time: Hurricane Flora (8,000 killed); and 1957, a below-average year with 8 named storms and 2 major hurricanes, including June's deadly Hurricane Audrey, which was re-analyzed as a Category 3 storm this year. The average activity during these five analogue years was 9 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. The CSU team will issue an updated forecast on July 31, 2014.


Figure 4. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2004-2013, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2004 - 2013 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, modest for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

TSR predicts a near-average hurricane season: 12 named storms
The May 27 forecast for the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season made by British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for a near-average season with 12 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 75. The long-term averages for the past 64 years are 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE of 102. TSR rates their skill level as modest for these April forecasts: 7 - 15% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. They project that 3 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1 of these being a hurricane. The averages from the 1950-2013 climatology are 3 named storms and 1 hurricane hitting the United States. TSR rates their skill at making these April forecasts for U.S. landfalls just 5% - 8% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects one named storm and no hurricanes in 2014. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR's two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July - September trade wind speeds over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August - September 2013 sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical North Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes. Their model is calling for SSTs 0.32°C below average and trade winds 1 m/s stronger than average during these periods; both of these factors should act to decrease hurricane and tropical storm activity. The July-September 2014 trade wind prediction is based on an expectation of moderate El Niño conditions in August-September 2014. TSR will issue an updated forecast on May 27, 2014.

Penn State predicts a below-average hurricane season: 9 named storms
A statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann, alumnus Michael Kozar, and researcher Sonya Miller is calling for a quiet Atlantic hurricane season with 9.3 named storms, plus or minus 3 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistical model assumes that the mid-May 2014 0.29°C above average SSTs in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, a moderate El Niño will be in place, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well, except for in 2012, when an expected El Niño did not materialize. They were the only major forecast group that issued a successful 2013 Atlantic hurricane season forecast.

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19
2012 prediction: 10.5 named storms, Actual: 19
2013 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 14

FSU predicts a below-average hurricane season: 7 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their sixth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast on May 29, and went the lowest of any of the major forecast group: a 70% probability of 5 - 9 named storms and 2 - 6 hurricanes. The mid-point forecast is for 7 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 60. The scientists use a numerical atmospheric model developed at COAPS to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters such as Colorado State, TSR, and PSU (NOAA uses a hybrid statistical-dynamical model technique.) The FSU forecast did well in 2009 - 2012, but badly missed the number of hurricanes in their 2013 prediction (8 predicted, but only 2 formed):

2009 prediction: 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes. Actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes
2010 prediction: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes
2011 prediction: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes
2012 prediction: 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes
2013 prediction: 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes. Actual: 14 named storms, 2 hurricanes

UK Met Office predicts a below-average hurricane season: 10 named storms
The UKMET office forecast for the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season, issued May 16, calls for below-average activity, with 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and an ACE index of 84. In contrast to the statistical models relied upon by CSU, TSR, PSU, and NOAA, the UKMET forecast is done strictly using two dynamical global seasonal prediction systems: the Met Office GloSea5 system and ECMWF system 4. Their forecasts for the past two years have not verified well:

2012 prediction: 10 named storms, ACE index of 90; Actual: 19 named storms, ACE index of 123
2013 prediction: 14 named storms, 9 hurricanes, ACE index of 130; Actual: 14 named storms, 2 hurricanes, ACE index of 31

Predictions from WU, WSI, and NC State
Weather Underground Community Hurricane Forecast: 12 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes
WSI: 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes
North Carolina State: 9.5 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes

Even a quiet hurricane season can be devastating
Quiet hurricane seasons with below-average activity can still produce major hurricanes that cause massive devastation. The five seasons that CSU lists as analogue years for 2014 produced four hurricanes that had their names retired, including one that killed 8,000 people in Cuba (Flora of 1963) and one that killed over 400 people in Texas and Louisiana (Audrey of 1957.) Even if an El Niño does develop this year, that doesn't mean it will be a quiet season. Recall the El Niño year of 2004, when four major hurricanes pounded the U.S.--Ivan, Charlie, Jeanne, and Frances. Those of you in Hurricane Alley should prepare for the 2014 season the same way you would for a predicted hyperactive season, and be ready for the Storm of the Century to hit your location.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.
GOM WV Loop

Predictions from WU, WSI, and NC State
Weather Underground Community Hurricane Forecast: 12 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes
WSI: 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes
North Carolina State: 9.5 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes



ahem....thanx for the update doc...but i believe the WU prediction should be topmost ;-)
Thanks for the blog, Dr. Masters.
Obama to unveil historic climate change plan

SUZANNE GOLDENBERG

Updated: June 2, 2014 00:42 IST




U.S. President Barack Obama will unveil a plan on June 2 that will cut carbon pollution from power plants and promote cap-and-trade, undertaking the most significant action on climate change in American history.

The proposed regulations Obama will launch at the White House on Monday could cut carbon pollution by as much as 25 per cent from about 1,600 power plants in operation today, according to those claiming familiarity with the plan.

Power plants are the country’s single biggest source of carbon pollution — responsible for up to 40 per cent of the country’s emissions.

The rules, which were drafted by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and are under review by the White House, are expected to do more than Obama, or any other President, has done so far to reduce the carbon dioxide emissions responsible for climate change.

They will put America on course to meet its international climate goal, and put U.S. diplomats in a better position to leverage climate commitments from big polluters such as China and India, Obama said in a speech to West Point graduates this week.

“I intend to make sure America is out front in a global framework to preserve our planet,” he said. “American influence is always stronger when we lead by example. We can not exempt ourselves from the rules that apply to everyone else.”

Political backclash
It won’t be without a fight. Obama went on in his remarks at West Point to take a shot at Republicans who deny climate change is occurring, and the White House press secretary, Jay Carney, on May 29 accused critics of making “doomsday claims” about the costs of cutting carbon.

But the White House still showed some signs of nervousness about a political backlash, releasing a report about expanded oil and gas production on Obama’s watch and adding to the furious spinning by environmental and industry groups about the potential costs and benefits of the EPA regulations.

“We actually see this as the Super Bowl of climate politics,” said Peter Altman, director of the climate and clean air campaign for the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), which produced a model carbon-cutting plan that has helped guide the EPA regulations.

But if all unfolds according to plan, Obama will have succeeded in overcoming blanket opposition — and outright climate denial in many cases — from Republicans and some Democrats in Congress, an industry-funded misinformation campaign, and a slew of anticipated lawsuits.

Obama had originally hoped to cut carbon pollution by moving a bill through Congress. Four years after that effort fell apart, campaigners say the EPA rules could deliver significant emissions cuts — near the 17 per cent Obama proposed at the Copenhagen climate summit — and the cap-and-trade programmes that were so reviled by Republicans.

The EPA, using its authority under the Clean Air Act, proposed the first rule phase, covering future power plants, last September.

America’s carbon dioxide emissions have been falling over the last few years to the lowest levels since the 1990s, because of a switch from coal to cheaper natural gas, and on a smaller scale increased investment in renewables. The economic downturn also reduced demand for electricity.

The White House said those changes — which were mainly market—driven — showed the EPA regulations would not hurt the economy as critics claim. — © Guardian Newspapers Limited, 2014
Look what the TWC has it doing! :P
If this season proves to be an active one, it will be back to the drawing board for hurricane forecasting.
More visible sat images coming out on 93E it's looking good LLCOC appears to have gone under a new burst of convection
Location near 13.2N 94.2W moving N
The environment tomorrow continues to look very scary for those living in central-eastern Nebraska. We might not see a high risk because the coverage of potentially strong to violent tornadoes isn't expected to be widespread (we might see a capping issue), but any supercell that forms along the warm front in this area will have the potential to become an absolute monster. This is the best combination of factors I've seen thus far (which isn't saying much given the rate of the 2014 tornado season..) By 0z Wednesday (7pm CDT Tuesday), the NAM has extremely backed surface winds, dewpoints in the mid-60s, SBCAPE of 2750-3000j/kg, 0-1km SRH of 250-300m2/s2, 0-3km SRH of 550-600m2/s2, and 70-80kt effective bulk shear among other factors.

Dr. Forbes has a TOR:CON of 7/10 in Southern Nebraska, but notes that this may need to be raised.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The environment tomorrow continues to look very scary for those living in central-eastern Nebraska. We might not see a high risk because the coverage of potentially strong to violent tornadoes isn't expected to be widespread (we might see a capping issue), but any supercell that forms along the warm front in this area will have the potential to become an absolute monster. This is the best combination of factors I've seen thus far (which isn't saying much given the rate of the 2014 tornado season..) By 0z Wednesday (7pm CDT Tuesday), the NAM has extremely backed surface winds, dewpoints in the mid-60s, SBCAPE of 2750-3000j/kg, 0-1km SRH of 250-300m2/s2, 0-3km SRH of 550-600m2/s2, and 70-80kt effective bulk shear among other factors.

Dr. Forbes has a TOR:CON of 7/10 in Southern Nebraska, but notes that this may need to be raised.


Yep, I'll be all over it tomorrow.
Thanks doc.
Quoting 2. Patrap:

GOM WV Loop


Good morning Pat..This could end up being a significant system, even with the gulf on the cool side..Any thoughts on this one..?
Thanks Doc! Let the blob watching, wishcasting and the doom model runs begin!
15. JRRP
Thanks for the blog Dr. Masters!
Our Atlantic AOI looks like a mess currently. I doubt we'll see much come out of it.
I take seasonal hurricane forecasts with a sack of salt. Last year, the NOAA forecast was 13-20 storms, 7-11 hurricanes, and 3-6 majors. The other forecasters were very much in agreement with that.

We got 14-2-0. Talk about an epic fail!



Strong easterly flow across Southern Fl. These are more tropical type rain showers vs. our normal sea breeze afternoon T storms.

Thanks for perspective on what a 'quiet' season could mean, and chart on the forecasting skill. To me It always lends credibility when it is honestly laid out, how confident scientists/researchers are in their forecasts. Folks that are absolutely sure they know 'what or why something happened or is going to happen' have something else to sell in my books.
Great post Patrap was never any doubt Obama would win this.Executive orders bypass the legislative process, has done this from day 1,the perfect society is here.Hillary will continue this for 8 years and beyond since this agenda has won we have too change are mindset from negative to positive because we see everyday the great changes by Obama changing this world for the better!!Too think after 5 years we can't come to grips with how much better we are today with Obama as president.Utopia is here and I am positive Obama will do everything in his power to continue to cement this power for a better world.God bless you guys and remember this is the day the lord has made rejoice and be glad in it!!
Taking a scroll through local offices...

NWS North Platte:

AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE EXPLOSIVE WITH
VERY STRONG UPDRAFTS POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AT THIS TIME...WITH THE FRONT BEING LAID OUT FROM SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA INTO THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE THE ENVIRONMENT
WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH THE INTENSITY OF THE UPDRAFTS EXPECTED...BELIEVE VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT WITH
THE WARM FRONT SET-UP...FORECAST PARAMETERS FOR INVOLVING LOW
LEVEL HELICITY AND INSTABILITY...INCLUDING THE SIGNIFICANT TOR
PARAMETER SHOWS TORNADOES COULD BE OF CONCERN MAINLY NEAR THE WARM
FRONT.

NWS Hastings:

TUESDAY...AS MENTIONED IN THE OPENING PARAGRAPH...THIS APPEARS TO
LIKELY BE ONE OF THE MOST VOLATILE SEVERE WEATHER ENVIRONMENTS OF
THE YEAR. THAT IS A BIG STATEMENT SO LETS LOOK IN DETAIL AT THE
EXPECTED ENVIRONMENT. FORCING...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
EAST OUT OF WYOMING/COLORADO TUESDAY MORNING INTO SOUTH
DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A 992-996 MB SFC LOW WILL
TRACK EAST ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER THROUGH THE DAY. A
VERY PRONOUNCED WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY BE DRAPED FROM WEST TO EAST
OVER OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WITH A DRY LINE RUNNING FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES. SHEAR...THE
00Z GFS AND 06Z NAM ARE BOTH INDICATING 0-6 KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES OF 60 TO 75 KTS...WITH THE NAM EVEN SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL
OF OVER 80 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. LOW LEVEL SHEAR OF 0-1 KM WILL
BE MAXIMIZED ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT BY EARLY
EVENING WITH THE 00Z GFS INDICATING 30-35 KTS...AND THE 06Z NAM
SHOWING 35-40 KTS. THIS IS A LOT OF SHEAR...ESPECIALLY DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...AND THE MOST I HAVE SEEN FOR A JUNE EVENT WITH THIS MUCH
INSTABILITY/CAPE FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IN PERHAPS A FEW YEARS. IF
IT PANS OUT...EXPECT STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO ROTATE RATHER EASILY.
CAPE...MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000 J/KG CAN BE EXPECTED BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN BY 18Z/1PM THUS INDICATING THAT
THIS SEVERE EVENT COULD KICK OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME TIMES
TOO MUCH SHEAR CAN BLOW AN UPDRAFT OVER AND KILL A STORM...BUT
WITH SO MUCH CAPE/INSTABILITY THAT SEEMS UNLIKELY. IT SHOULD BE
HIGHLIGHTED THAT IT IS LIKELY THAT NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN FROM
THIS EVENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE CONVECTION
SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED ALONG THE DRY LINE. OUR POPS MAY EVEN BE A
TOUCH TOO HIGH. HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM COULD BE
ABSOLUTE MONSTERS. BOTTOM LINE IS BE WEATHER AWARE ON TUESDAY AND
KEEP UP TO DATE ON CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS THE EXPECTED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONS COULD STILL SHIFT SOME THIS FAR OUT.

NWS Omaha:

STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT WILL EJECT
INTO THE PLAINS AND DAMPEN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. FAST MID LEVEL
FLOW WILL INDUCE STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES...WITH MODELS INDICATING SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN IN
NORTHWEST KANSAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF IT...WARM FRONT OVER
NORTHERN KANSAS SHOULD LIFT INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA
BRINGING SOUPY 70F DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WITH IT. FLOW AT ALL
LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
SOUTHERLY 850 WINDS NEAR 40KT RIDING OVER FRONTAL ZONE. BULK SHEAR
VALUES WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY...TOPPING 70KT...WITH MOST-UNSTABLE
CAPES NORTH OF 3000 J/KG. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG
WARM FRONT WHERE 0-1KM ENERGY-HELICITY INDICES ARE FORECAST IN THE 5
TO 10+ RANGE. ALL THIS POINTS TO A GOOD LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE IN PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN THE AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD QUICKLY EAST ALONG
WARM FRONT AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. ALL MODES
OF SEVERE ARE POSSIBLE...WITH STRONG/LONG-TRACK TORNADOES POSSIBLE
NEAR WARM FRONT. THREAT FOR SEVERE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST OF WESTERN IOWA OVERNIGHT.
Thanks Dr. Masters!
Morn hydrus,

All I know is dat the ULL has brought copious amounts of rain with some flooding in rural areas..as it has kept the fetch off the GOM flowing in and over us since Thursday.


Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service New Orleans la
900 am CDT Monday Jun 2 2014

Update...
12z sounding discussion...
a very moist airmass remains in place with precipitable water of 2.02 inches at 12z.
The profile is nearly saturated from the surface through 750mb
with a few relatively dry layers from 750mb to 550mb and above 425mb.
A deep southeasterly flow is present through from the surface to
500mb with 10kts are surface to 20kts throughout this layer. Winds are
fairly unidirectional up to 500mb...east 450 to 400mb and
southerly above 350mb. Inversions are not in play with a cape value
was around 2500 j/kg this morning. 18

&&

Lix watches/warnings/advisories...
la...none.
GM...none.
MS...none.
GM...none.
&&

$$
Quoting 16. WeatherNerdPR:

Thanks for the blog Dr. Masters!
Our Atlantic AOI looks like a mess currently. I doubt we'll see much come out of it.


If it's actually there
Double Post.
Thanks Jeff...
Quoting swflurker:
South Florida forcast:
LARGE DIFFERENCES NOTED BETWEEN THE EXTENDED-RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS
WILL KEEP THE OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
THE GFS KEEPS THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND WET PATTERN IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION INDICATES MUCH DRIER
AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS. LATER
IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE GFS INDICATES A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...WHICH
REMAINS AS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION AT THIS TIME AND APPEARS
TO BE AN OUTLIER. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER
MODEL CYCLES UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES BEFORE MAKING ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THROUGH THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.
we've seen el nino hyped as a world disaster waiting to happen....and here we have the oppositte hype


El Niño Could Mean a Disaster-Free Hurricane Season
Bryan Walsh @bryanrwalsh June 1, 2014

The Atlantic hurricane season officially kicks off on Sunday, which means for the next six months the East and Gulf coasts of the U.S. will be on the lookout for the next big Andrew, Hugo or Katrina. As it happens, the U.S. is in the middle of a record-breaking hurricane drought. It’s been 3,142 days since the last major hurricane — defined as Category 3 or above — made landfall in the U.S. (That was Hurricane Wilma, which hit southwest Florida in October 2005 and was the most intense cyclone ever recorded in the Atlantic basin, with sustained winds of 185 m.p.h.) That’s an unprecedented streak, going back to 1900 — the longest drought before the current one was nearly 1,000 days shorter.
Jim Weber ☀️ ‏@JimWeberFOX 27m
Colorado State issued their updated numbers; up slightly because of slower El Niño development.



i caught the above on twitter....can anyone verify that it was el nino delayed development that changed their forecast?
Invest 93E is almost a tropical depression.

Quoting 30. ricderr:

we've seen el nino hyped as a world disaster waiting to happen....and here we have the oppositte hype


El Niño Could Mean a Disaster-Free Hurricane Season
Bryan Walsh @bryanrwalsh June 1, 2014

The Atlantic hurricane season officially kicks off on Sunday, which means for the next six months the East and Gulf coasts of the U.S. will be on the lookout for the next big Andrew, Hugo or Katrina. As it happens, the U.S. is in the middle of a record-breaking hurricane drought. It’s been 3,142 days since the last major hurricane — defined as Category 3 or above — made landfall in the U.S. (That was Hurricane Wilma, which hit southwest Florida in October 2005 and was the most intense cyclone ever recorded in the Atlantic basin, with sustained winds of 185 m.p.h.) That’s an unprecedented streak, going back to 1900 — the longest drought before the current one was nearly 1,000 days shorter.



Very irresponsible and downright false headline.
34. SLU
Quoting 2102. CybrTeddy:



I really don't think you can get a setup less conductive to hurricane activity. That's completely opposite to what one would want to see for an active hurricane season.


It's going to be a struggle
Thanks for the informative update!! It will be interesting to see how the season pans out. I was unaware that 2004 was a predicted below-normal season. I endured those four storms. Something I will never forget!
Quoting 31. ricderr:

Jim Weber %u2600%uFE0F %u200F@JimWeberFOX 27m
Colorado State issued their updated numbers; up slightly because of slower El Nio development.



i caught the above on twitter....can anyone verify that it was el nino delayed development that changed their forecast?

We continue to foresee a below-average 2014 Atlantic hurricane season. The tropical
Atlantic remains slightly cooler than normal, while El Nio is in the process of
developing. However, the transition to El Nio has slowed some in recent weeks, and the
tropical Atlantic has anomalously warmed, causing us to increase our forecast slightly.
We are still calling for a below-average probability of United States and Caribbean major
hurricane landfall.

Calling for 10-4-1 now
m Weber ☀️ ‏@JimWeberFOX 27m
Colorado State issued their updated numbers; up slightly because of slower El Niño development.


i caught the above on twitter....can anyone verify that it was el nino delayed development that changed their forecast?



it's on more than one twitter feed......i just haven't found it myself yet
Quoting 32. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Invest 93E is almost a tropical depression.




I agree; its getting very close to reaching tropical depression status. I wouldn't be surprised to see it become Tropical Storm Boris in the next 24 hours given the very favorable environment.
We continue to foresee a below-average 2014 Atlantic hurricane season. The tropical
Atlantic remains slightly cooler than normal, while El Niño is in the process of
developing. However, the transition to El Niño has slowed some in recent weeks, and the
tropical Atlantic has anomalously warmed, causing us to increase our forecast slightly.
We are still calling for a below-average probability of United States and Caribbean major
hurricane landfall.



thanx ta13
"Those of you in Hurricane Alley should prepare for the 2014 season the same way you would for a predicted hyperactive season, and be ready for the Storm of the Century to hit your location. "
always sound advice! Thanks doc
Been raining here where I live in Broward County all day and likely won't relent until later this afternoon as training has established itself. So much for getting some pool work done here.
Thanks, Doc. That is a lot of info to absorb.

tomorrow is when the aussies give their latest ENSO update.....early word on the street says that they are going to say it will be declared in august.....but that's just a rumor right now...i can't verify it anywhere
Thank you Dr. Masters... My least favorite time of the year here in south Florida.
42. Torito
9:50 AM MDT on June 02, 2014



i see spin and a lot more than a naked swrly....not sure it's closed just yet...but getting there........looks like pacific number 2 is about here
Quoting 5. Patrap:

Obama to unveil historic climate change plan

SUZANNE GOLDENBERG

Updated: June 2, 2014 00:42 IST





America’s carbon dioxide emissions have been falling over the last few years to the lowest levels since the 1990s, because of a switch from coal to cheaper natural gas, and on a smaller scale increased investment in renewables. The economic downturn also reduced demand for electricity.



Fails to mention that fracking natural gas releases immense amounts of methane into the air, which is 4 times more powerful than CO2. Natural gas is not the savior everyone thinks it is.
Fails to mention that fracking natural gas releases immense amounts of methane into the air, which is 4 times more powerful than CO2. Natural gas is not the savior everyone thinks it is.



here here
Lawd Jesus, hide me now.

Quoting 32. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Invest 93E is almost a tropical depression.



No doubt in that
Does anyone know what might bring that much rain to the midwest? It has been on every run for the past few days.

The worst shear looks light it comes at night so it could always be worse.
Quoting 22. help4u:

Great post Patrap was never any doubt Obama would win this.Executive orders bypass the legislative process, has done this from day 1,the perfect society is here.Hillary will continue this for 8 years and beyond since this agenda has won we have too change are mindset from negative to positive because we see everyday the great changes by Obama changing this world for the better!!Too think after 5 years we can't come to grips with how much better we are today with Obama as president.Utopia is here and I am positive Obama will do everything in his power to continue to cement this power for a better world.God bless you guys and remember this is the day the lord has made rejoice and be glad in it!!


I sure hope you were so outraged by executive orders in other administrations, especially considering Obama's place him currently 3rd lowest in the modern era, only ahead of 1 term George H.W. Bush and Gerald Ford, and 2nd lowest of every President in the modern area after only 1 term.

Nah, that wouldn't go well for the false narrative you are trying to portray. Maybe instead of bashing the president for a rather ambitious initiative that attempts to bring the U.S. to the forefront of environmentalism using a method the supreme court has deemed valid, you believe we should consider continuing along the path of assured destruction of doing nothing, despite the fact every study shows that the long term difficulties will be worse if no action is taken?

Maybe I misunderstood your sarcasm, or maybe your faux outrage is simply misplaced.
ALERT ATCF MIL 93X XXX 140602060000
2014060206
12.1 266.9
14.5 265.2
80
12.4 266.5
020900
1406020851
1
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPN21 PHNC 020900
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
080 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.1N 93.1W TO 14.5N 94.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 020600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.4N 93.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 030900Z.
//
9314053012 110N 930W 20
9314053018 112N 932W 20
9314053100 113N 934W 20
9314053106 114N 936W 20
9314053112 115N 938W 25
9314053118 116N 940W 20
9314060100 117N 942W 25
9314060106 119N 943W 25
9314060112 121N 943W 25
9314060118 122N 941W 25
9314060200 122N 938W 25
9314060206 124N 935W 20
NNNN

TXPZ22 KNES 021213
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93E)

B. 02/1145Z

C. 12.8N

D. 93.2W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0/S0.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT=1.0. MET AND PT ARE
ALSO 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MCCARTHY
Quoting 40. NCstu:

"Those of you in Hurricane Alley should prepare for the 2014 season the same way you would for a predicted hyperactive season, and be ready for the Storm of the Century to hit your location. "
always sound advice! Thanks doc
The Storm of the Century, would that be something like the Great Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 that killed 500 people down in the middle Keys and produced wind gust close to 250-MPH with an 18-foot storm surge?
Great blog Dr. Masters..I even plussed it..:)

Even if an El Niño does develop this year, that doesn't mean it will be a quiet season. Recall the El Niño year of 2004, when four major hurricanes pounded the U.S.--Ivan, Charlie, Jeanne, and Frances. Those of you in Hurricane Alley should prepare for the 2014 season the same way you would for a predicted hyperactive season, and be ready for the Storm of the Century to hit your location.

I still doubt that el nino myself happening but you guys keep on with the cause while I wait..see..and prepare for hurricane season..
T.C.F.A.
093E/INV/XX/XX
Quoting 58. ncstorm:

Great blog Dr. Masters..I even plussed it..:)

Even if an El Niño does develop this year, that doesn't mean it will be a quiet season. Recall the El Niño year of 2004, when four major hurricanes pounded the U.S.--Ivan, Charlie, Jeanne, and Frances. Those of you in Hurricane Alley should prepare for the 2014 season the same way you would for a predicted hyperactive season, and be ready for the Storm of the Century to hit your location.

I still doubt that el nino myself happening but you guys keep on with the cause while I wait..see..and prepare for hurricane season..
I do think one will develop...but not a Hollywood dooms day one like some are making it seem.
Quoting 48. Michfan:



Fails to mention that fracking natural gas releases immense amounts of methane into the air, which is 4 times more powerful than CO2. Natural gas is not the savior everyone thinks it is.


If only. A given mass of methane is calculated to be 72 times more potent than the same mass of CO2 over a 20 year time frame, and 25 times more potent over a century.
Quoting 36. TropicalAnalystwx13:


We continue to foresee a below-average 2014 Atlantic hurricane season. The tropical
Atlantic remains slightly cooler than normal, while El Ni�o is in the process of
developing. However, the transition to El Ni�o has slowed some in recent weeks, and the
tropical Atlantic has anomalously warmed, causing us to increase our forecast slightly.
We are still calling for a below-average probability of United States and Caribbean major
hurricane landfall.

Calling for 10-4-1 now
2012 repeat?.Syke :).I do think it'll be like 2006 and then el nino will come to shut it down.
Quoting 58. ncstorm:

Great blog Dr. Masters..I even plussed it..:)

Even if an El Niño does develop this year, that doesn't mean it will be a quiet season. Recall the El Niño year of 2004, when four major hurricanes pounded the U.S.--Ivan, Charlie, Jeanne, and Frances. Those of you in Hurricane Alley should prepare for the 2014 season the same way you would for a predicted hyperactive season, and be ready for the Storm of the Century to hit your location.

I still doubt that el nino myself happening but you guys keep on with the cause while I wait..see..and prepare for hurricane season..
be ready nc the sooner the better
Quoting 60. washingtonian115:

I do think one will develop...but not a Hollywood dooms day one like some are making it seem.


I agree..right on the tip toes of the hollywood movie the day after tomorrow that I saw yesterday..nothing like hollywood movies that show multiple F5 tornados in Los Angeles and we entering a new Ice age due to global warming..
Quoting 40. NCstu:

"Those of you in Hurricane Alley should prepare for the 2014 season the same way you would for a predicted hyperactive season, and be ready for the Storm of the Century to hit your location. "
always sound advice! Thanks doc
..Yes i remember our supposed slow storm season in 2004...i dont listen,i prepare as always,just in case...
Quoting 66. LargoFl:

..Yes i remember our supposed slow storm season in 2004...i dont listen,i prepare as always,just in case...

Yah
IMHO I think this year will be very similar to 04 season
Quoting 22. help4u:
Great post Patrap was never any doubt Obama would win this.Executive orders bypass the legislative process, has done this from day 1,the perfect society is here.Hillary will continue this for 8 years and beyond since this agenda has won we have too change are mindset from negative to positive because we see everyday the great changes by Obama changing this world for the better!!Too think after 5 years we can't come to grips with how much better we are today with Obama as president.Utopia is here and I am positive Obama will do everything in his power to continue to cement this power for a better world.God bless you guys and remember this is the day the lord has made rejoice and be glad in it!!
YOU GOT TO BE KIDDING I HOPE!!!!
Thank You Dr. Excellent summary for June of the upcoming season and the major factors that folks factor into their early season forecasts (before they adjust numbers in August as we near the peak period to see what August conditions actually emerge).  Will be real interesting to see how the newer FSU model performs over the next several seasons as compared to the other.

I remember reading a few years ago that some FSU Mets were upset when the "rights" to the previous forecast model they had developed (I forgot the exact name but it might have been the FSU Superensemble) was sold by the University as their work was considered "work for hire" under the Copyright Act .  Does anyone know if this newer COAPS model is the response from the FSU Met Community to that previous loss? 

Thanks in advance.
Two year old Rolling Stone article bears posting and reading IMO Link
Maxed out 3km Energy Helicity Index (EHI) on the 12z GFS:

It's very interesting to note that, in the models that do show possible tropical development late this week/weekend, the focus for any such development has now shifted eastward and more towards the Yucatan or Yucatan Channel rather than the Bay of Campeche. Still a week out, so plenty of time for things to change, but its noteworthy for now.
Quoting 74. cchsweatherman:

It's very interesting to note that, in the models that do show possible tropical development late this week/weekend, the focus for any such development has now shifted eastward and more towards the Yucatan or Yucatan Channel rather than the Bay of Campeche. Still a week out, so plenty of time for things to change, but its noteworthy for now.


I wouldn't say its noteworthy...GFS has no support and has been changing every 24hrs on where and if. Like you said, it's 6-7 days away maybe from forming , if at all....until we are within 3 days. Then it's noteworthy :)
Quoting 9. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The environment tomorrow continues to look very scary for those living in central-eastern Nebraska. We might not see a high risk because the coverage of potentially strong to violent tornadoes isn't expected to be widespread (we might see a capping issue), but any supercell that forms along the warm front in this area will have the potential to become an absolute monster. This is the best combination of factors I've seen thus far (which isn't saying much given the rate of the 2014 tornado season..) By 0z Wednesday (7pm CDT Tuesday), the NAM has extremely backed surface winds, dewpoints in the mid-60s, SBCAPE of 2750-3000j/kg, 0-1km SRH of 250-300m2/s2, 0-3km SRH of 550-600m2/s2, and 70-80kt effective bulk shear among other factors.

Dr. Forbes has a TOR:CON of 7/10 in Southern Nebraska, but notes that this may need to be raised.

I agree with you when it comes to the tornado risk; storm coverage probably isn't going to be widespread enough initially, but I wouldn't be surprised if the forecasted MCS/derecho would warrant a high risk (for damaging winds). It's certainly not unprecedented.
Quoting 15. JRRP:


High pressure in the East coast?
12z GFS brings the low in a lot further south.

Weather looks alright for the Panama City area this weekend. We are planning a short vacation down there later this week, anyone have any good hotel recommendations? or warnings for that matter? Planning on taking lots of weather related photos while down there.... Thanks!
Afternoon all... It's been mostly cloudy all day here, due to our friendly area of disturbed wx down near the Yucatan. There's been no rain as yet in my location, but that is likely to change before the afternoon is over.

grasshoppers on radar



83. JRRP
3
2004
Quoting 79. Sfloridacat5:

12z GFS brings the low in a lot further south.



Convective feedback issues the GFS has.... I would disregard anything the GFS shows after 4 days right now. The low forms from this feedback.
Anyone know when the NHC does their next assessment of the EPAC invest?
93E is certainly on the verge of becoming a tropical depression. I'm expecting the first advisory to be issued sometime later this afternoon/evening.
Quoting 81. BahaHurican:

Afternoon all... It's been mostly cloudy all day here, due to our friendly area of disturbed wx down near the Yucatan. There's been no rain as yet in my location, but that is likely to change before the afternoon is over.




It's been raining here near the Ft. Lauderdale area all day long.
Quoting 85. MAstu:

Anyone know when the NHC does their next assessment of the EPAC invest?


Next Tropical Weather Outlook comes at 2 PM EDST, so in a little over an hour now.
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1242 PM EDT MON JUN 02 2014

VALID JUN 02/1200 UTC THRU JUN 06/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...


12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION ALONG WITH PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR TO SIGNIFICANTLY
AFFECT THEIR LARGE SCALE OUTPUT.
Lolx10000
12Z GFS bring it back as a W Caribbean storm
Hahahaha
I knew GFS would come around
12Z GFS at it again june 11th.............................................. ................................
I gues Levi is having problems with his site today
Quoting 90. wunderkidcayman:

Lolx10000
12Z GFS bring it back as a W Caribbean storm
Hahahaha
I knew GFS would come around


no it doesn't... that's a week away and it's from convection feedback error, sorry to say
Quoting 90. wunderkidcayman:

Lolx10000
12Z GFS bring it back as a W Caribbean storm
Hahahaha
I knew GFS would come around
Take it easy! It can still change the next run lol
Quoting 92. hydrus:




Just looking at all these models showing absolutely no rainfall in the near future for California and the desert Southwest is awful. Those areas, especially California, are in a dire water shortage situation there as well as under constant threat from wild fires.
Anyway I know GFS had some problems due to upper air ingest but the report does state that "NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR TO SIGNIFICANTLY
AFFECT THEIR LARGE SCALE OUTPUT." So there should be no reason not to trust GFS

So what GFS show may be correct
What convective feedback errors do is create a blob thus lowering pressures around it and since the Yucitan will have lower pressures already from 93E and the trough, it forms a low pressure with it. It thus starts a tropical cyclone. Almost like the normal CMC.... brings everything into a hurricane on days 7. If the GFS is showing the same thing 4 days out...then it will be noteworthy but it has been changing every 12hrs and this low is from the blowup (feedback error)
Quoting 92. hydrus:




12Z GFS showing a pretty decent TS hitting SW FL and moving ENE from there. I agree with the fact that something from what appears to be Boris in the making bringing a chance for either Arthur to form in the SE Gulf or NW Caribbean to just tropical moisture moving NE into FL either way it is looking wet in C & S FL come this weekend.

Quoting 97. wunderkidcayman:

Anyway I know GFS had some problems due to upper air ingest but the report does state that "NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR TO SIGNIFICANTLY
AFFECT THEIR LARGE SCALE OUTPUT." So there should be no reason not to trust GFS

So what GFS show may be correct


That is over the U.S./Canada not with anything in the tropics
I can't watch the loop on Levi's site.
and someone notify Levi that his site isn't working.
Quoting 103. Gearsts:

I can't watch the loop on Levi's site.
yes he's having problems.
Quoting 99. scottsvb:

What convective feedback errors do is create a blob thus lowering pressures around it and since the Yucitan will have lower pressures already from 93E and the trough, it forms a low pressure with it. It thus starts a tropical cyclone. Almost like the normal CMC.... brings everything into a hurricane on days 7. If the GFS is showing the same thing 4 days out...then it will be noteworthy but it has been changing every 12hrs and this low is from the blowup (feedback error)
Can you link me?
Quoting 99. scottsvb:

What convective feedback errors do is create a blob thus lowering pressures around it and since the Yucitan will have lower pressures already from 93E and the trough, it forms a low pressure with it. It thus starts a tropical cyclone. Almost like the normal CMC.... brings everything into a hurricane on days 7. If the GFS is showing the same thing 4 days out...then it will be noteworthy but it has been changing every 12hrs and this low is from the blowup (feedback error)


Convective feedback or not Tropical moisture is going to head north into the Eastern Gulf this weekend and then from there who knows. We could have a system or we may just be dealing with something more monsoonal either way the effects will be the same and that's some serious rains for somebody.
Quoting 109. StormTrackerScott:



Convective feedback or not Tropical moisture is going to head north into the Eastern Gulf this weekend and then from there who knows. We could have a system or we may just be dealing with something more monsoonal either way the effects will be the same and that's some serious rains for somebody.


sounds about right
It would be wonderful if some President got elected and had a project in mind....a national water pipeline..a pipeline that would pump water from the area's in the states that had plenty of water to area's in the country that badly needed water...imagine the job creation possibilities that would bring to a country in bad need of jobs...just dropping the hint.
I guess way back in time..people thought a national interstate highway project was a pipedream never to come true back then...and look..it happened..and its heavily used today....things CAN happen if there's a will to do it.
Quoting 111. LargoFl:

It would be wonderful if some President got elected and had a project in mind....a national water pipeline..a pipeline that would pump water from the area's in the states to area's in the country that badly needed water...imagine the job creation possibilities that would bring to a country in bad need of jobs...just dropping the hint.


Water's heavy, and pumping it for hundreds of miles is far too expensive. Crops irrigated with it would be more expensive than imports, so they wouldn't be grown..
Convective feedback or not
good amount of rain for Yucatan, NW Carib and Florida

Anyway we will have to see what 18Z offers then
Thanks for the new Blog Dr. Masters.... ++
It should be noted that the CMC has nothing tropical on it's 12Z run.
Quoting 86. Ameister12:

93E is certainly on the verge of becoming a tropical depression. I'm expecting the first advisory to be issued sometime later this afternoon/evening.

TBH I believe its a td already.
The GFS will surely change drastically over the next 7 days. I wouldn't put much confidence in the current run.

One thing is for sure. There is an abundance of moisture over the Western Caribbean and Southern GOM. Florida is in for a lot of rain.

South Florida is already in the soup.



Quoting 117. StormTrackerScott:

It should be noted that the CMC has nothing tropical on it's 12Z run.


CMC means nothing, only 2 models to go by... GFS and EURO... if Euro sees something in 5 days..then it's worth watching, but it can change also since its many days out :)
Anyway 12Z was an exciting "wild card" run I guess
We wait for 18Z
Latest Day 2 outlook from the SPC.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CDT MON JUN 02 2014

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
NEBRASKA...NORTHERN KANSAS...SOUTHERN IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI AND
WESTERN ILLINOIS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND
NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY AREAS...

...SUMMARY...
NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY FROM A PORTION OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS. LARGE
HAIL AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY. TORNADOES...SOME
STRONG...WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.


...SYNOPSIS...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL REACH THE
GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES BY 12Z TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN
MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY AND
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. A STRONG UPPER JET
WITH 60-70 KT AT 500 MB WILL ACCOMPANY THIS IMPULSE. AT THE SURFACE
A FRONT WILL STALL FROM THE OH VALLEY WESTWARD INTO NEBRASKA WHILE A
LEE CYCLONE DEEPENS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
INCREASING WESTERLIES ALOFT AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN SHIFT EASTWARD ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. TO THE SOUTH OF
THE SURFACE LOW...A DRYLINE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

...CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE MID-UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGIONS...

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WINDS.


THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT 12Z TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA AS A LOW-LEVEL JET RESULTS IN ISENTROPIC
LIFT/MOIST ADVECTION NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. THE SUBSEQUENT EVOLUTION
OF MORNING CONVECTION WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON WARM FRONTAL
LOCATION/AREAS OF HIGHER THREAT LATER IN THE DAY...HOWEVER ALL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...A
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE
EASTWARD ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND EASTWARD GENERALLY
ALONG THE KANSAS-NEBRASKA BORDER. STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT
IN UPPER 60S DEW POINTS BECOMING WIDESPREAD THROUGHOUT THE WARM
SECTOR AND RESULTING IN AFTERNOON MLCAPE OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG.
STRENGTHENING LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
WILL RESULT IN AN ENVIRONMENT VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING
LARGE LOOPING HODOGRAPHS AND 0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 250 M2/S2.
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT VERY LARGE HAIL WITH
INITIAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE MAXIMIZED
OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...NEAR
AND JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW.


WITH TIME...UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS APPEARS
LIKELY...AIDED BY A STRENGTHENING/VEERING LOW-LEVEL JET AND STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. ALTHOUGH THE MCS SHOULD INITIALLY MOVE GENERALLY
EASTWARD...A SOUTHEAST MOTION WITH TIME APPEARS LIKELY. A
SIGNIFICANT WIND THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS
IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN ILLINOIS.

..BUNTING.. 06/02/2014
Quoting scottsvb:


CMC means nothing, only 2 models to go by... GFS and EURO... if Euro sees something in 5 days..then it's worth watching, but it can change also since its many days out :)


And if the GFS shows a hurricane hitting CFL on the 384 hour model posted daily then it certainly will verify and FL will get hammered :o)
Unnamed 93E T1.0/1.0 02/1145Z East Pacific

Unnamed 93E T1.0/1.0 02/1145Z East Pacific tropical d coming soon!!
I know the odds against being hit by a tornado would be miniscule, but I'd hate to live in tornado alley.
93E LLCOC around 13.2N 94.0W movement is unclear there seems to be some N and E components to movement but still unclear
Seven in 10 Americans see global warming as a serious problem facing the country, enough to
fuel broad support for federal efforts to limit greenhouse gas emissions – even if it raises their
own energy costs, a new ABC News/Washington Post poll finds.

The poll, conducted in advance of the Obama administration’s announcement today of planned
regulations to cut such pollution, finds 70 percent support for limiting emissions from existing
power plants, and, more generally, for requiring states to cut the production of greenhouse gases
within their borders.

Notably, indicating public concern about the issue, 63 percent of Americans say they’d support a
regulatory effort that significantly lowered greenhouse gases even if it raised their own energy
expenses by $20 per month. (The figure is hypothetical, meant to test attitudes about the possible
cost of new regulations. Actual cost impacts, if any, are a subject of sharp debate.)

Link
Quoting 77. Ameister12:


I agree with you when it comes to the tornado risk; storm coverage probably isn't going to be widespread enough initially, but I wouldn't be surprised if the forecasted MCS/derecho would warrant a high risk (for damaging winds). It's certainly not unprecedented.

The more I look at model output, the more I think a high risk will be necessary. There won't be a barrage of supercells, but I'm starting to think it's sufficient.
Quoting 103. Gearsts:

I can't watch the loop on Levi's site.
Quoting 105. HurricaneAndre:

and someone notify Levi that his site isn't working.


I just woke up (Alaskan timezone...). Apparently an error blocked all plotting during the night. I've instructed the entire 12z GFS to plot, which will probably take 45 minutes, and all following runs will work. My apologies...
it appears to me that 93 E is moving faster. NHC says landfall on Weds! I say, No way, by Weds it will be in the GOM.
Quoting 65. ncstorm:



I agree..right on the tip toes of the hollywood movie the day after tomorrow that I saw yesterday..nothing like hollywood movies that show multiple F5 tornados in Los Angeles and we entering a new Ice age due to global warming..


here nc here is a real life movie for you with mother nature controlling the special effects


93E is looking good:



ASCAT got a good pass on it this morning:



Should see a Tropical Depression declared later today/early tomorrow.
I think FL could get a Historic Heavy Rain event from this mess over the EPAC and Carib. Widespread 12 inch totals or higher are likely this week. We could see a mutli-day Flooding event like what TS Debby and TS Fay produced with massive totals over Florida. The next week could provide a historic rainfall event for Florida's peninsula.
I have NEVER seen such a large area of high PW's easily 2 SD above normal over Central America- the monsoon trough is pulling in moisture from a very moist and high SST EPAC- everything I'm seeing points to a HISTORIC Rain event over FL. The last time I saw a monsoonal trough anywhere close to this magnitude was just prior to hurricane Wilma.


Looks like WunderkidCayman has some psychic ability LOL...latest GFS is developing the storm in the Western Caribbean just as he said it would for days even when it was showing a BOC storm. To those people saying it is just one model run- it's the trend! The shear is too high in the BOC and the trend is for a NW Carib storm.

I think we will have a 50 mph TS form in the NW Caribbean- BUT even if it DOES NOT DEVELOP- it will very heavy rains to the Yucatan, Cayman Islands, Cuba, and Florida over the next week. There could be some very high rain totals in excess of 12 inches across a good swath of FL if this area of disturbed weather, regardless of development, remains in the Gulf for several days as the models have been showing.

Interesting run nevertheless







Quoting 128. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Seven in 10 Americans see global warming as a serious problem facing the country, enough to
fuel broad support for federal efforts to limit greenhouse gas emissions %u2013 even if it raises their
own energy costs, a new ABC News/Washington Post poll finds.

The poll, conducted in advance of the Obama administration%u2019s announcement today of planned
regulations to cut such pollution, finds 70 percent support for limiting emissions from existing
power plants, and, more generally, for requiring states to cut the production of greenhouse gases
within their borders.

Notably, indicating public concern about the issue, 63 percent of Americans say they%u2019d support a
regulatory effort that significantly lowered greenhouse gases even if it raised their own energy
expenses by $20 per month. (The figure is hypothetical, meant to test attitudes about the possible
cost of new regulations. Actual cost impacts, if any, are a subject of sharp debate.)

Link
yes get ready for higher taxes,fuel and electricity costs go up...and one country doing this wont do anything to prevent global warming....my god just how much can the american people stand,raises are a pittance these days for the average worker.many millions out of work etc......gone are the days when america was a working powerhouse im afraid....i cannot imagine..yes HERE in the united states of america..how people 30-40-50 years from now can afford to live?...dont laugh young ones...when i was 18 a brand new car cost what..3-4,000 dollars...what do they cost today?..and the raise in workers salaries havent kept up with the rise in prices on just about everything....end rant

Quoting 120. scottsvb:



CMC means nothing, only 2 models to go by... GFS and EURO... if Euro sees something in 5 days..then it's worth watching, but it can change also since its many days out :)


To be fair, I found the CMC very useful last year for the WPAC. Not to mention it does decently in terms of track and it does out-do the GFS/Euro from time to time. (I believe only the CMC/Navgem showed Gabrielle last year).
Quoting 134. StPetersburgFL:

I think FL could get a Historic Heavy Rain event from this mess over the EPAC and Carib. Widespread 12 inch totals or higher are likely this week.

Looks like WunderkidCayman has some psychic ability LOL...latest GFS is developing the storm in the Western Caribbean just as he said it would for days even when it was showing a BOC storm. To those people saying it is just one model run- it's the trend! The shear is too high in the BOC and the trend is for a NW Carib storm.

I think we will have a 50 mph TS form in the NW Caribbean- BUT even if it DOES NOT DEVELOP- it will very heavy rains to the Yucatan, Cayman Islands, Cuba, and Florida over the next week. There could be some very high rain totals in excess of 12 inches across a good swath of FL if this area of disturbed weather, regardless of development, remains in the Gulf for several days as the models have been showing.

We could see a mutli-day Flooding event like what TS Debby and TS Fay produced with massive totals over Florida. The next week could provide a historic rainfall event for Florida's peninsula.
I have NEVER seen such a large area of high PW's easily 2 SD above normal over Central America- the monsoon trough is pulling in moisture from a very moist and high SST EPAC- everything I'm seeing points to a HISTORIC Rain event over FL.
yeah we need to be alert these next few weeks...flooding may be the story for us.
Quoting StPetersburgFL:
Looks like WunderkidCayman has some psychic ability LOL...latest GFS is developing the storm in the Western Caribbean just as he said it would for days even when it was showing a BOC storm. To those people saying it is just one model run- it's the trend! The shear is too high in the BOC and the trend is for a NW Carib storm.

I think we will have a 50 mph TS form in the NW Caribbean- BUT even if it DOES NOT DEVELOP- it will very heavy rains to the Yucatan, Cayman Islands, Cuba, and Florida over the next week. There could be some very high rain totals in excess of 12 inches across a good swath of FL if this area of disturbed weather, regardless of development, remains in the Gulf for several days as the models have been showing.

We could see a mutli-day Flooding event like what TS Debby and TS Fay produced with massive totals over Florida. The next week could provide a historic rainfall event for Florida's peninsula.

That's odd. I was just looking at the GFS and see no evidence that it's developing a storm in the Caribbean. Would you mind posting the graphics that you believe show a storm in the Caribbean compared to one in the BOC?
Quoting yonzabam:
I know the odds against being hit by a tornado would be miniscule, but I'd hate to live in tornado alley.


This map shows the path of two of the three major tornadoes to affect the Southwest side of Oklahoma City and Moore. I used to live just S.W. of Oklahoma City and graduated from Moore High School.If you don't have a storm shelter and live in that area your crazy.

X marks the spot. The people that live there were hit by two major tornadoes.
The 1999 tornado had the highest recorded wind speed (301 mph by doppler on wheels).



This map shows tornado tracks from 1962 - 2011 in the Oklahoma City/Central Oklahoma area.
Still yet to see the latest EURO, but, looking at the models, if anything does spin up in the BOC next few days, looks like it's got nowhere to go but into southern Mexico maybe meander? Ok, now for someone who knows what they're talking about. :D

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUN 02 2014

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN ELONGATED CUT-OFF UPPER LOW COVERS THE W GULF WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM NEAR LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA THROUGH THE CENTER
NEAR 25N94W TO OVER MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 26N95W TO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N94W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW COVERING THE
AREA FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 91W-96W. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
COLOMBIA EXTENDS THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN ACROSS W CUBA AND THE
FAR E GULF OF MEXICO TO OVER GEORGIA PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS E OF 90W TO OVER FLORIDA AND THE SE CONUS. SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED AND GRADUALLY BECOME MORE NW TO
SE ALIGNED. WEAK SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE ALONG THE TROUGH MIDWEEK.
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Very irresponsible and downright false headline.

I agree. Who is this Bryan R Walsh and why should I care about him?
Keep..you sound like you trying to "engage" me but I know thats not the case as you are a Mod..

I'll stay away from the GW conversations and you dont try to start conversations that lead away from the topic of the blog..agree?

thanks..

True, Mt. Etna in Sicily belches millions of tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere every time it erupts, but human use of fossil fuels adds 30 billion tons each year -- too much for Earth to absorb and store. (Fox)

Cosmos' recap: Climate change is explained in 'The World Set Free'


JENNIFER OUELLETTE

Is it getting hot in here? In what is likely to prove one of its most controversial episodes yet, this week's "Cosmos" lays out the powerful scientific case for climate change, framed within a tale of two planets: Venus and Earth.

Venus was not much different from Earth back in the earliest days of the solar system, with vast oceans and an atmosphere potentially friendly to life. Visit Venus today, however, and you'll find that its once abundant oceans have long since evaporated away because of the broiling temperatures -- hot enough to melt lead, and certainly hot enough to destroy Venera 13, a Soviet space probe that landed on the surface of Venus in 1982. Thanks to on-board cooling systems, the craft stayed operational for a couple of hours — long enough to take pictures of the planet's surface and beam them back to Earth, before the searing heat fried the electronics.

What happened to Venus to turn it from a nascent paradise into an uninhabitable hell? That fiery temperature isn't because the planet is 30% closer to the sun. As host Neil deGrasse Tyson points out, Venus is covered by thick sulfuric clouds, which keep much of the sun's light from ever reaching the planet. So why isn't Venus a block of ice? A little light gets through — but it can't back out again because there is so much carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. So that energy never escaped and Venus got hotter and hotter. It's called the runaway greenhouse effect.

We can learn much from Venus about the possible fate of our own pretty blue planet. True, the catastrophic climate change on Venus had nothing to do with mankind. "Nature can destroy an environment without any help from intelligent of life," says Tyson. But the same fundamental science applies to Earth.

Earth benefited from a milder version of the greenhouse effect. Whereas most of the Venusian CO2 is in gaseous form in the atmosphere, our planet developed an efficient conversion cycle through which carbon could be stored in coral reefs, or limestone rock, — like the stunning White Cliffs of Dover on the coast of England.

So there were only trace amounts of CO2 in our atmosphere: less than three molecules in 10,000. If there were none, Earth would be a ball of ice; too much, and Earth would look like Venus. We're in the "Goldilocks zone" when it comes to CO2 levels, but it only takes a tiny shift in the balance to tip us into a runaway greenhouse effect — and that is precisely where we are heading.We don't think of planets as living organisms, but Tyson insists that the Earth "breathes" with the seasons, taking in CO2 (via trees and other vegetation) in the spring and "exhaling" it back into the atmosphere in the winter. (The seasons are reversed in the Southern Hemisphere.) So there's a natural fluctuation to CO2 levels in the atmosphere.

An oceanographer named Charles David Keeling was the first to notice this when he measured how much CO2 was in the atmosphere. And he made another startling discovery: an alarming sharp rise in the overall levels since the Industrial Age, when humans started burning coal, oil and gas for energy. (It's now known as the "Keeling Curve.") We can see this in ice core samples taken in Antarctica and Greenland, giving us a detailed "diary" of Earth's atmospheric history. Aside from seasonal fluctuations, until the 19th century, CO2 levels hadn't fluctuated by more than 1% over millions of years.

One by one, Tyson sets up the objections touted by those who deny the reality of climate change, and knocks them down with scientific facts. No, it has nothing to do with volcanic activity. True, Mt. Etna in Sicily belches millions of tons of CO2 into the atmosphere every time it erupts, but human use of fossil fuels adds 30 billion tons each year — too much for Earth to absorb and store. (And yes, we can tell the difference, because CO2 from volcanic activity has a distinct chemical signature that we can easily measure.)

He also makes a clear distinction between weather and climate. You hear the jokes every time there's a cold spell in winter: "So much for global warming, ha ha ha!" For the record: Weather is how the atmosphere behaves day to day, which is a highly chaotic system and impossible to predict beyond a few days because there are so many variables that can influence weather patterns. Climate is the long-term average of weather patterns tracked over many years, and far more stable.


Tyson compares climate to the straight path his footprints make on the beach; weather is the dog walking alongside him on a leash, wandering to and fro but always within the constraints of the leash. When it comes to climate change, "Keep your eye on the man, not the dog," he advises.

All told, "It's a pretty tight case — our fingerprints are all over this thing," Tyson concludes. Carl Sagan gave the same warning when the original Cosmos aired. And yet even a 98% consensus among climate scientists that this is real and that it's man-made isn't sufficient to lay the pseudo-"controversy" to rest.

Why? Chances are, how you respond to this episode will dovetail neatly with how you self-identify on the political spectrum. Several studies have shown a pronounced "backfire effect" in response to countering unfounded political opinions with factual evidence to the contrary. Rather than adjusting their opinions to be more factually correct, many people double down on their preexisting beliefs. They will not be swayed by facts, finding all manner of rationalizations to ignore the overwhelming evidence.

Here's the thing: Nature doesn't care about your politics, or what you want to be true. It just does its thing according to the well-established rules described by science. We ignore reality at our peril.

The sharp rise since the late 19th century means that the average global temperature is rising, with some pretty devastating consequences for our environment. Melting ice caps, rising sea levels, heat waves, record droughts, severe storms, mass extinctions — this is the legacy we're leaving to future generations, unless we find the collective will to do something about it and become better stewards of our planetary home.

Tyson specifically mentions two promising renewable energy sources — wind turbines and solar power — that could help reverse the alarming upward trend in CO2 levels in the atmosphere.


We've been at the solar crossroads before. At the Universal Exhibition in Paris in 1878, Augustin Mouchot demonstrated a solar-power engine capable of making ice by converting the sun's rays into mechanical steam power. He won a gold medal and everything. But this coincided with cheap coal — so cheap his solar device couldn't compete economically. He ultimately lost his funding.


We were at a crossroads again in 1913, when the American inventor Frank Shuman built a solar array to power steam engines in Egypt, with an eye toward using it to irrigate the desert. But the market for cheap petroleum exploded, and the outbreak of World War I led to his solar arrays being recycled into weapons. His invention didn't go anywhere, either.

We're an adaptive species; it's what's enabled us to survive. But the climate clock is ticking. Quite frankly, we can't afford to wait another 100 years; the time to invest heavily in renewable energy is now. Only by facing the facts can we find a solution and avoid bringing about our own mass extinction.
Quoting 106. LargoFl:

yes he's having problems.


I hope he is Ok.

Ohh and what is wrong with the site?
On the virge to become a TD.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUN 2 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located about 250 miles south-southeast of Salina Cruz, Mexico, have
continued to become better organized this morning. Environmental
conditions are conducive for additional development and a tropical
depression is likely to form later today or tonight as the low moves
slowly northeastward or northward. Locally heavy rainfall associated
with this system is already affecting portions of western Central
America, and is expected to spread over southeastern Mexico during
the next couple of days. These rains could cause life-threatening
flash floods and mud slides in areas of mountainous terrain.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown


93E Viz Loop

Quoting 139. sar2401:


That's odd. I was just looking at the GFS and see no evidence that it's developing a storm in the Caribbean. Would you mind posting the graphics that you believe show a storm in the Caribbean compared to one in the BOC?


Wunderkid posted it below- even if something did hypothetically form in the BOC, shear will blow it to pieces and it would keep reforming further east over the Caribbean.
The energy and low starts in the BOC but shear pushes it into NW Caribbean where it develops.

We are going to have a historic flooding event if all this comes together!
Quoting 134. StPetersburgFL:

I think FL could get a Historic Heavy Rain event from this mess over the EPAC and Carib. Widespread 12 inch totals or higher are likely this week. We could see a mutli-day Flooding event like what TS Debby and TS Fay produced with massive totals over Florida. The next week could provide a historic rainfall event for Florida's peninsula.
I have NEVER seen such a large area of high PW's easily 2 SD above normal over Central America- the monsoon trough is pulling in moisture from a very moist and high SST EPAC- everything I'm seeing points to a HISTORIC Rain event over FL. The last time I saw a monsoonal trough anywhere close to this magnitude was just prior to hurricane Wilma.


Looks like WunderkidCayman has some psychic ability LOL...latest GFS is developing the storm in the Western Caribbean just as he said it would for days even when it was showing a BOC storm. To those people saying it is just one model run- it's the trend! The shear is too high in the BOC and the trend is for a NW Carib storm.

I think we will have a 50 mph TS form in the NW Caribbean- BUT even if it DOES NOT DEVELOP- it will very heavy rains to the Yucatan, Cayman Islands, Cuba, and Florida over the next week. There could be some very high rain totals in excess of 12 inches across a good swath of FL if this area of disturbed weather, regardless of development, remains in the Gulf for several days as the models have been showing.




Lol

Quoting 138. LargoFl:

yeah we need to be alert these next few weeks...flooding may be the story for us.

Same here

Quoting 139. sar2401:


That's odd. I was just looking at the GFS and see no evidence that it's developing a storm in the Caribbean. Would you mind posting the graphics that you believe show a storm in the Caribbean compared to one in the BOC?

I just posted it

Quoting 126. yonzabam:

I know the odds against being hit by a tornado would be miniscule, but I'd hate to live in tornado alley.
We've been here in Middle TN since 2011 and have only had the siren sound about 8 times over the course of that time.. I think its worse sheltering without knowing what's going to happen, than riding out a sudden earthquake... imho
tornado 2....stormchasers 0



watch trailer here
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected for the next five days.

$$
Quoting StPetersburgFL:
I think FL could get a Historic Heavy Rain event from this mess over the EPAC and Carib. Widespread 12 inch totals or higher are likely this week. We could see a mutli-day Flooding event like what TS Debby and TS Fay produced with massive totals over Florida. The next week could provide a historic rainfall event for Florida's peninsula.
I have NEVER seen such a large area of high PW's easily 2 SD above normal over Central America- the monsoon trough is pulling in moisture from a very moist and high SST EPAC- everything I'm seeing points to a HISTORIC Rain event over FL. The last time I saw a monsoonal trough anywhere close to this magnitude was just prior to hurricane Wilma.


Looks like WunderkidCayman has some psychic ability LOL...latest GFS is developing the storm in the Western Caribbean just as he said it would for days even when it was showing a BOC storm. To those people saying it is just one model run- it's the trend! The shear is too high in the BOC and the trend is for a NW Carib storm.

I think we will have a 50 mph TS form in the NW Caribbean- BUT even if it DOES NOT DEVELOP- it will very heavy rains to the Yucatan, Cayman Islands, Cuba, and Florida over the next week. There could be some very high rain totals in excess of 12 inches across a good swath of FL if this area of disturbed weather, regardless of development, remains in the Gulf for several days as the models have been showing.


Since this run of the GFS (which is likely to change substantially again) doesn't show any significant rain reaching Florida before Sunday at the earliest, where exactly are these 12 inches of rain this week coming from? What does the PWAT over Central America have to do with Florida?
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected for the next five days.

$$
Quoting StPetersburgFL:
I think FL could get a Historic Heavy Rain event from this mess over the EPAC and Carib. Widespread 12 inch totals or higher are likely this week. We could see a mutli-day Flooding event like what TS Debby and TS Fay produced with massive totals over Florida. The next week could provide a historic rainfall event for Florida's peninsula.
I have NEVER seen such a large area of high PW's easily 2 SD above normal over Central America- the monsoon trough is pulling in moisture from a very moist and high SST EPAC- everything I'm seeing points to a HISTORIC Rain event over FL. The last time I saw a monsoonal trough anywhere close to this magnitude was just prior to hurricane Wilma.


Looks like WunderkidCayman has some psychic ability LOL...latest GFS is developing the storm in the Western Caribbean just as he said it would for days even when it was showing a BOC storm. To those people saying it is just one model run- it's the trend! The shear is too high in the BOC and the trend is for a NW Carib storm.

I think we will have a 50 mph TS form in the NW Caribbean- BUT even if it DOES NOT DEVELOP- it will very heavy rains to the Yucatan, Cayman Islands, Cuba, and Florida over the next week. There could be some very high rain totals in excess of 12 inches across a good swath of FL if this area of disturbed weather, regardless of development, remains in the Gulf for several days as the models have been showing.



Where can i get your crystal ball? :o)
Survey from the U. of Alabama on the Jan. 28, 2014 Winter Weather Event

If you were affected by the storm, consider taking the survey

Dr. Laura Myers from the University of Alabama, is conducting a study called %u201CSurveys of the Public and Interviews of Emergency Responders to Study the Weather Warning Process in the January 2014 Snow Event in Birmingham and Atlanta%u201D. Dr. Myers wishes to understand how the public got weather warnings, how they reacted to the weather warnings, and their recommendations for weather warning improvement after the January 28, 2014 snow/ice event. Dr. Myers also wishes to know how emergency responders disseminated the weather warnings during the January 28 event and the lessons learned from the event.
All 12z GFS graphics through hour 192 are now available on the site. I'm terribly sorry for the downtime.
Quoting 154. sar2401:


Since this run of the GFS (which is likely to change substantially again)doesn't show any significant rain reaching Florida before Sunday at the earliest, where exactly are these 12 inches of rain this week coming from? What does the PWAT over Central America have to do with Florida?


Look at the total precip accumulations posted many posts back. There is a big swath of 12 inches. High PWAT over Central America has a HUGE influence on our rain- that's where the moisture is coming from and it will reach us. I have NEVER seen the GFS so consistent with widespread 12 inches and a swath of almost all SW FL.
Quoting 156. StormWx:



Where can i get your crystal ball? :o)


Hey babe- I'm selling it for only 50 bucks :)
How's ur weather honey?
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


Lol


Same here


I just posted it



I saw the model run that showed total rainfall. I saw nothing to indicate a low pressure system in the Caribbean. There was no low level circulation shown anywhere other than where 93E is now.
Quoting 137. Envoirment:




To be fair, I found the CMC very useful last year for the WPAC. Not to mention it does decently in terms of track and it does out-do the GFS/Euro from time to time. (I believe only the CMC/Navgem showed Gabrielle last year).


I don't use the CMC for the WPAC..but for the WHem is does a very poor job and is the least favorite of the global models that us Mets go by with tropical systems
Since this run of the GFS (which is likely to change substantially again) doesn't show any significant rain reaching Florida before Sunday at the earliest, where exactly are these 12 inches of rain this week coming from? What does the PWAT over Central America have to do with Florida?



sar...you're sounding like me...or i'm sounding like you..........LOL....gonna be a long h-season wishcasting event if all this glorification of long range models continues......i believe we are now zero for six in long range model predictions transpiring
Quoting StPetersburgFL:


Look at the total precip accumulations posted many posts back. There is a big swath of 12+ inches. High PWAT over Central America has a HUGE influence on our rain- that's where the moisture is coming from and it will reach us.

Bull. Show me anything that shows 12 inches of rain this week.
Quoting 161. sar2401:



I saw the model run that showed total rainfall. I saw nothing to indicate a low pressure system in the Caribbean. There was no low level circulation shown anywhere other than where 93E is now.


Look at 130 and 144 hours- the GFS shows the low blowing up in the NW Caribbean- the bright colors around it show spectacular and phenomenal precipitation. See that bright color.
166. flsky
Will circulation form in the NW GOM near Texas?


Quoting 163. ricderr:

Since this run of the GFS (which is likely to change substantially again) doesn't show any significant rain reaching Florida before Sunday at the earliest, where exactly are these 12 inches of rain this week coming from? What does the PWAT over Central America have to do with Florida?



sar...you're sounding like me...or i'm sounding like you..........LOL....gonna be a long h-season wishcasting event if all this glorification of long range models continues......i believe we are now zero for six in long range model predictions transpiring


I love how people enjoy calling others wishcasters only to get showed up later on
Hey babe- I'm selling it for only 50 bucks :)
How's ur weather honey?



i see a WU marriage on the horizon
Quoting 158. Levi32:

All 12z GFS graphics through hour 192 are now available on the site. I'm terribly sorry for the downtime.


No need to apologize Levi as we are lucky to have so much information on one site that's free. You do a great job as always with your site.
Quoting ricderr:
tornado 2....stormchasers 0



watch trailer here


The north side of Oklahoma City has also been a hot spot for tornadoes over the past few years. There have been a number of tornadoes in that area including the 2 mile wide tornado that took the life of the storm chasers.
Quoting 164. sar2401:


Bull. Show me anything that shows 12 inches of rain this week.


Bull?? Learn to read a map dude. What bull? It clearly shows 12 inches.
Quoting 146. Tropicsweatherpr:

On the virge to become a TD.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUN 2 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located about 250 miles south-southeast of Salina Cruz, Mexico, have
continued to become better organized this morning. Environmental
conditions are conducive for additional development and a tropical
depression is likely to form later today or tonight as the low moves
slowly northeastward or northward. Locally heavy rainfall associated
with this system is already affecting portions of western Central
America, and is expected to spread over southeastern Mexico during
the next couple of days. These rains could cause life-threatening
flash floods and mud slides in areas of mountainous terrain.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown




Hmm I said it would go Northward/NorthEastward seems NHC liking my idea

Quoting 148. StPetersburgFL:



Wunderkid posted it below- even if something did hypothetically form in the BOC, shear will blow it to pieces and it would keep reforming further east over the Caribbean.
The energy and low starts in the BOC but shear pushes it into NW Caribbean where it develops.

We are going to have a historic flooding event if all this comes together!

And that is the exact same thing I was talking about

And in case you don't remember or didn't understand me when I said it is that which StPete'sFL just said
But to add to that I was saying that maybe a trof of low pressure that goes from the BOC to the GOH/ W Carb with lows on both sides both trying to grab vorts from each other part of why it would not consolidate quick on either side then conditions in the GOM/BOC becomes worse causing the Carib to win out and take over
Quoting 165. StPetersburgFL:



Look at 130 and 144 hours- the GFS shows the low blowing up in the NW Caribbean- the bright colors around it show spectacular and phenomenal precipitation. See that bright color.


Plz calm down, it's from the feedback error of the GFS... There is nothing showing in the next 5 days in development.. don't go by what a model shows after that.. its speculation...and chance of it happening if the Euro doesn't agree is under 10%
I love how people enjoy calling others wishcasters only to get showed up later on

no offense meant there st.......only my observation shared to a friend.....you want to go with long range models......please be my guest.....it just makes me chuckle is all
Quoting 92. hydrus:




Here Sar- here's the map of 12 inches
Quoting StPetersburgFL:


Look at 130 and 144 hours- the GFS shows the low blowing up in the NW Caribbean- the bright colors around it show spectacular and phenomenal precipitation. See that bright color.

Bull. 135 and 144 hours shows the rain still being in the Yucatan. Show me something that shows 12 inches in Florida this week.
Quoting ricderr:
Hey babe- I'm selling it for only 50 bucks :)
How's ur weather honey?



i see a WU marriage on the horizon

I see another well known troll on the horizon...
Quoting 172. wunderkidcayman:


Hmm I said it would go Northward/NorthEastward seems NHC liking my idea


And that is the exact same thing I was talking about

And in case you don't remember or didn't understand me when I said it is that which StPete'sFL just said
But to add to that I was saying that maybe a trof of low pressure that goes from the BOC to the GOH/ W Carb with lows on both sides both trying to grab vorts from each other part of why it would not consolidate quick on either side then conditions in the GOM/BOC becomes worse causing the Carib to win out and take over


This is not science... it's imaginary. If something forms off the Yucitan... it will be awhile. The energy will need to escape eventually, but don't expect a TS in the western Caribbean from this event. Maybe next week the energy will lift into the GOM and cause something to form before it moves inland or across florida, but that is a guess or imaginary also until it happens.
Quoting 176. sar2401:


Bull. 135 and 144 hours shows the rain still being in the Yucatan. Show me something that shows 12 inches in Florida this week.


So what if its not this week? It still shows consistently 12 inches plus! GFS is the boss.

Quoting 177. sar2401:


I see another well known troll on the horizon...


Been staring into the mirror too much lately? LOL

Y'all called my rain forecasts false only to get showed up by the massive totals we saw in FL this week. I correctly predicted the 6 inch event Scott reported- and many other events. I called this correctly.
This is getting stupid scary over Nebraska/South Dakota. Here's the 12z NAM sounding just SW of Yankton, SD... but the cap is more likely to break toward Kansas/Nebraska border. If the cap somehow breaks in Yankton region, and if NAM get confirmed, then there's going to be a destructive tornado or few raking this area. While soundings are not as insane in Hastings/Lincoln area, it's still concerning especially with the cap more likely to break there.

12z NAM sounding over Yankton, SD.

Hope you see it now







This is the best depiction of what appears to be a TS on the GFS thus far.

168hrs
Quoting 143. ncstorm:

Keep..you sound like you trying to "engage" me but I know thats not the case as you are a Mod..

I'll stay away from the GW conversations and you dont try to start conversations that lead away from the topic of the blog..agree?

thanks..
not at all nc I was just showing a video nothing more nothing less hope ya at least watch it no comments are needed it speaks for its self
Quoting StPetersburgFL:


Here Sar- here's the map of 12 inches

No, that doesn't show 12 inches of rain in Florida this week. You're the one who's saying it's going to happen. Show us.
@jimmyc42: @VORTEXJeff all our experimental 4km models. saw some UH tracks with values above 500. all tracks were fat and large value and long.

High-res models pointing to several long-tracked and strong tornadoes tomorrow.
Quoting 180. Bluestorm5:

This is getting stupid scary over Nebraska/South Dakota. Here's the 12z NAM sounding just SW of Yankton, SD... but the cap is more likely to break toward Kansas/Nebraska border. If the cap somehow breaks in Yankton region, and if NAM get confirmed, then there's going to be a destructive tornado or few raking this area. While soundings are not as insane in Hastings/Lincoln area, it's still concerning especially with the cap more likely to break there.

12z NAM sounding over Yankton, SD.




Ouch
Quoting 184. sar2401:


No, that doesn't show 12 inches of rain in Florida this week. You're the one who's saying it's going to happen. Show us.


For the tenth time, it's not THIS WEEK- it's the TOTAL between now and JUNE 12TH LOL!
12Z GFS today has what the CMC had yesterday
Long term models are just a tool used to try to predict how the atmosphere/conditions might look several days out but do not always verify.  The better and more reliable ones, for obvious reasons, are the short-term model runs/forecasts.  In the real short-term (1-2 days) I find that my "eyes" work pretty well just looking at satt loops, CIMSS products, and "local" pressure readings when available such as from buoys/aircraft etc.
I see another well known troll on the horizon...


ahhhh.....just saw the join date.....you're probably right.....i'll just ignore.....enough crazy stuff gets posted by regular posters that i don't need to focus on trolls....... :-)
Quoting 185. TropicalAnalystwx13:

@jimmyc42: @VORTEXJeff all our experimental 4km models. saw some UH tracks with values above 500. all tracks were fat and large value and long.

High-res models pointing to several long-tracked and strong tornadoes tomorrow.


Gonna be in Chicago on Wednesday with cool rainy thundery conditions as all the severe weather will be south however Sunday up there looks interesting.
Quoting 111. LargoFl:

It would be wonderful if some President got elected and had a project in mind....a national water pipeline..a pipeline that would pump water from the area's in the states that had plenty of water to area's in the country that badly needed water...imagine the job creation possibilities that would bring to a country in bad need of jobs...just dropping the hint.
Unfortunately there are almost no areas in the states that have plenty of water -- the great lakes even drop level in the summer due to evaporation. Most of the water in abundance is in those 5 lakes, but ship it to Texas and you shut down the electric hydro plants at Niagara, not to mention the falls. And as was pointed out, moving water is expensive. No, the best, and possibly only practical, solution is conservation.
Quoting 182. StormTrackerScott:

This is the best depiction of what appears to be a TS on the GFS thus far.

168hrs



Scott you were correct last week when u said FL would have tons of rain because some areas got 4-6 inches just like u said. I don't understand why you and I get bashed for making forecasts that come true. Oh well, guess we can't please everyone. Anyway we are gonna get another 6-12 inches with 12+ in according to the GFS between today and June 12.

Long term models are just a tool used to try to predict how the atmosphere/conditions might look several days out but do not always verify


i think better put would be "seldom verify"
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Hope you see it now








I see a supposed low approaching Florida next Tuesday. I normally never look at more than 5 days out. Where is anything...anything...showing 12 inches of rain in Florida this week?
When the Euro and GFS "BOTH" show a organized system within 5 days out and in the same area on more than 1 model run, then you have at least a 25% chance of something being there. The % goes up each day. Outside of 5 days, the chances drop, especially when only 1 has it.
Quoting StPetersburgFL:


Scott you were correct last week when u said FL would have tons of rain because some areas got 4-6 inches just like u said. I don't understand why you and I get bashed for making forecasts that come true. Oh well, guess we can't please everyone. Anyway we are gonna get another 6-12 inches with 12+ in according to the GFS between today and June 12.

What happened to this week?
Quoting 195. sar2401:


I see a supposed low approaching Florida next Tuesday. I normally never look at more than 5 days out. Where is anything...anything...showing 12 inches of rain in Florida this week?


I just stated like 15 times, the 12 inches don't occur this week! They occur between now and june 12. Geesh!

I give up! You people are driving me crazy. It's really NOT that hard to read a map and combine that with the Climatological COMMON SENSE that June often features heavy rain events in FL based on these exact set ups...I mean TS Debby was only 2 years ago but it seems like it was 2000 years ago based on the responses of some...
Quoting Levi32:
All 12z GFS graphics through hour 192 are now available on the site. I'm terribly sorry for the downtime.


No problem Levi, your site is awesome!
Quoting 142. bappit:


I agree. Who is this Bryan R Walsh and why should I care about him?


Bryan Walsh

Link
Quoting 193. StPetersburgFL:



Scott you were correct last week when u said FL would have tons of rain because some areas got 4-6 inches just like u said. I don't understand why you and I get bashed for making forecasts that come true. Oh well, guess we can't please everyone. Anyway we are gonna get another 6-12 inches with 12+ in according to the GFS between today and June 12.



Some areas got 0.00 it's called slow moving afternoon T-Storms in florida. Happens every day and every summer
Quoting Levi32:
All 12z GFS graphics through hour 192 are now available on the site. I'm terribly sorry for the downtime.


No problem Levi. Thanks for all you do. :)
Quoting 201. scottsvb:




Some areas got 0.00 it's called slow moving afternoon T-Storms in florida. Happens every day and every summer



These people say most anything, yet the proof is in the pudding.

3 DAY PRECIPITATION TOTALS
Link
Quoting 201. scottsvb:




Some areas got 0.00 it's called slow moving afternoon T-Storms in florida. Happens every day and every summer


Yeah Last Thursday there was 4.57" of rain just 4 to 5 miles from me and I got maybe 2 drops it wasn't until yesterday that i finally got tagged with 3.27". OIA got .15 yesterday so you see the nature of these rains. Hit or miss.
Quoting 195. sar2401:


I see a supposed low approaching Florida next Tuesday. I normally never look at more than 5 days out. Where is anything...anything...showing 12 inches of rain in Florida this week?

Hey don't look at me I ain't the one saying anything about inches of rain in Florida
Quoting StPetersburgFL:


For the tenth time, it's not THIS WEEK- it's the TOTAL between now and JUNE 12TH LOL!

OK, I know who you are now since you have just shown you're willing to change stories when it suits you. At some point, you'll follow your other sock puppet out the door. Goodbye.
Quoting 147. Patrap:

93E Viz Loop




93e getting better organized for sure. Weather here in Puerto Escondido southern Oaxaca 88 deg Partly sunny, hot and humid with a 10 knot SSW wind. Skies getting darker to our Southeast.
. Duplicate post
Quoting 208. StPetersburgFL:



That's not correct. The rainfall anomalies for the first days of June have been much above normal compared to normal afternoon storms. Normal afternoon storms do not produce the kinds of totals we have been getting across Florida this week.


Only in spots though.
Anyway I will respectfully wait for 18Z run and others to come
Quoting ricderr:

Long term models are just a tool used to try to predict how the atmosphere/conditions might look several days out but do not always verify


i think better put would be "seldom verify"


I dont mind seeing the models posted, its interesting stuff and it can show potential. Problem is when a blogger puts a stamp on it and seals it saying its going to happen and we should all get ready for it. But its all good, you got that big factory of crow right?!

Quoting 193. StPetersburgFL:



Scott you were correct last week when u said FL would have tons of rain because some areas got 4-6 inches just like u said. I don't understand why you and I get bashed for making forecasts that come true. Oh well, guess we can't please everyone. Anyway we are gonna get another 6-12 inches with 12+ in according to the GFS between today and June 12.


Scottsvb is right the GFS does often show convective feedback. More likely 6" of rain being shown instead of 12".
Quoting 185. TropicalAnalystwx13:

@jimmyc42: @VORTEXJeff all our experimental 4km models. saw some UH tracks with values above 500. all tracks were fat and large value and long.

High-res models pointing to several long-tracked and strong tornadoes tomorrow.

The warm front is going to be a scary, scary place tomorrow afternoon/evening.
Quoting 185. TropicalAnalystwx13:

@jimmyc42: @VORTEXJeff all our experimental 4km models. saw some UH tracks with values above 500. all tracks were fat and large value and long.

High-res models pointing to several long-tracked and strong tornadoes tomorrow.


A met on AmWx forum isn't buying the threat because of LCL being too high. But I'm not seeing it on models at 12z run so I don't know about that...
Quoting 209. StormTrackerScott:



Only in spots though.


I agree that it has been only in spots, but typically even spots that get heavier rains don't get the anomalous totals of this past week.
Quoting 201. scottsvb:




Some areas got 0.00 it's called slow moving afternoon T-Storms in florida. Happens every day and every summer

I'll admit that for most areas the rainfall was normal.

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Precipitation /Weekly.aspx

Here is the total rainfall for the past week- while 2-4 inches of rain is "normal", as you describe, the areas of 4 is actually above normal. I agree it is not a widespread 4-8 inch area, so you are correct in that.
If the GFS is suffering convective feedback issues, then yes the forecast for the next 10 days may be exaggerated. The reason I think we could still get those high totals is due to the area of disturbed weather being expected to stall over us, not necessarily the GFS.
Quoting 208. StPetersburgFL:



That's not correct. While some areas have experienced the hit or miss phenomenon- The rainfall anomalies for the first days of June have been much above normal compared to normal afternoon storms. Normal afternoon storms do not produce the kinds of totals we have been getting across Florida this week.
I've lived here for 20 years, and this weeks storms were well above normal for the first week of June in terms of intensity and rainfall totals.


No they are not.... loi don't even go there with me on that ! ha
Quoting ricderr:
I see another well known troll on the horizon...


ahhhh.....just saw the join date.....you're probably right.....i'll just ignore.....enough crazy stuff gets posted by regular posters that i don't need to focus on trolls....... :-)

Unfortunately, his MO is to post inflammatory stuff and then just lie as time goes along and his story doesn't work out. I'm willing to give anyone the benefit of the doubt until it becomes clear that he's here simply to tip over the hornets nest. I have made my last post to him.
And NHC drops the BOC system from the TWO short range and long range
Quoting Bluestorm5:


A met on AmWx forum isn't buying the threat because of LCL being too high. But I'm not seeing it on models at 12z run so I don't know about that...

LCLs may be an issue across Kansas, but they should be more than favorable along the warm front in Nebraska. Models outputting values near 500m.
Quoting 216. StPetersburgFL:



http://www.intellicast.com/National/Precipitation /Weekly.aspx

Here is the total rainfall for the past week- while 2-4 inches of rain is "normal", as you describe, the areas of 4+ is actually above normal. I agree it is not a widespread 4-8 inch area, so you are correct in that.
If the GFS is suffering convective feedback issues, then yes the forecast for the next 10 days may be exaggerated. The reason I think we could still get those high totals is due to the area of disturbed weather being expected to stall over us, not necessarily the GFS.


Stall over florida? what model says that and also if you're looking at next week, it's a guess and the models constantly change.
Quoting 220. TropicalAnalystwx13:


LCLs may be an issue across Kansas, but they should be more than favorable along the warm front in Nebraska. Models outputting values near 500m.
That's what I thought I was seeing.
Quoting Bluestorm5:


A met on AmWx forum isn't buying the threat because of LCL being too high. But I'm not seeing it on models at 12z run so I don't know about that...

It really comes down to the cap. How strong is it, will it bust, and when? Answer those questions today and you'll know how bad things might be tomorrow.
Quoting 218. sar2401:


Unfortunately, his MO is to post inflammatory stuff and then just lie as time goes along and his story doesn't work out. I'm willing to give anyone the benefit of the doubt until it becomes clear that he's here simply to tip over the hornets nest. I have made my last post to him.


Good. I won't have to waste time trying to explain things when people can't understand what is obvious from the evidence I provide. As for inflammatory- how is making an argument based on weather considered inflammatory? We must be inventing new meanings for words today.
So far nothing on the 12Z Euro thru 132hrs.
Quoting 221. scottsvb:



Stall over florida? what model says that and also if you're looking at next week, it's a guess and the models constantly change.


I agree it's a guess with the models- we are not in a disagreement on that point. What I am saying is that when you have a large feed of moisture from the Pacific, and that moisture eventually moves into the GOM/Caribbean, which has happened during many Junes here, the rainfall tends to get very heavy and accumulate. We saw this in 2012 with a nontropical area of disturbed weather, as well as with Debbie in late June 2012.
Some areas can get more locally heavier amounts... it's florida! These are afternoon T-Storms with tropical moisture coming up from the Caribbean. It's happens a lot. Sometimes we can go a week with very limited moisture due to levels in the atmosphere being dry. It goes in cycles and from weather patterns...you can see this in the water vapor loops
the 12Z Euro shows no development in the next 5 days
Quoting scottsvb:


Stall over florida? what model says that and also if you're looking at next week, it's a guess and the models constantly change.

You're not going to win. He'll just Mutt and Jeff you with different stories, flopping between wide-eyed hype to sounding like Mr. Reasonable. He has been visiting for many years under different names. This is just another permutation.
Quoting 227. scottsvb:

Some areas can get more locally heavier amounts... it's florida! These are afternoon T-Storms with tropical moisture coming up from the Caribbean. It's happens a lot. Sometimes we can go a week with very limited moisture due to levels in the atmosphere being dry. It goes in cycles and from weather patterns...you can see this in the water vapor loops


I agree 100% with you about this.
Quoting 219. wunderkidcayman:

And NHC drops the BOC system from the TWO short range and long range
watch out for Invest 93E MAYBE Going in the GOM by the end of this week to!!
In any case- typical rainy season in Florida with some enhancement from Caribbean moisture, which is normal for this time of year.
we need to watch invest 93E will go north and go in the GOM in the next five days from now!!
Up to 30kts and 1002 mbs.

EP, 93, 2014060218, , BEST, 0, 129N, 940W, 30, 1002, LO
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
And NHC drops the BOC system from the TWO short range and long range

Why do you think that happened, WKC?
A major volcano in Indonesia has spewed ash into the stratosphere!!! This should have implications on next Winter, next Summer, or the following Winter Season! These arsenals should very briefly mitigate Global Warming.
Quoting 223. sar2401:


It really comes down to the cap. How strong is it, will it bust, and when? Answer those questions today and you'll know how bad things might be tomorrow.


Yup. Look more breakable toward Hastings area. If the cap somehow breaks farther north, then tomorrow is going to be one scary day.
Is tampa going to get flooding from whatever this is or is it just south to south central Florida
Quoting ricderr:
tornado 2....stormchasers 0



watch trailer here

That's it? I didn't even get to see the Dominator's hood torn off. I don't think I'll pay two bucks in the hope of seeing happen though. :-)
Quoting 238. weatherbro:

A major volcano in Indonesia has spewed ash into the stratosphere!!! This should have implications on next Winter, next Summer, or the following Winter Season! These arsenals should very briefly mitigate Global Warming.


It started on Friday, causing disruption to air travel, and has now subsided. Unless you have a psychic hotline, there's no reason to suppose it will continue to erupt big time.
Quoting CybrTeddy:

This is really driving me nuts. I can't be the only one having problems accessing the NHC and SPC sites, am I? Your graphic shows as broken and I get a can't connect error when I try to view it in a new tab. I have cleared my cache and browsing history, and that helps...for about 5 minutes. This has been going on for about 36 hours.
Quoting sar2401:

This is really driving me nuts. I can't be the only one having problems accessing the NHC and SPC sites, am I? Your graphic shows as broken and I get a can't connect error when I try to view it in a new tab. I have cleared my cache and browsing history, and that helps...for about 5 minutes. This has been going on for about 36 hours.


You're not alone, I've also been having problems accessing the NHC site (although not the SPC). Everything is broken just when you don't want it to be, it seems.
because it is now 6+ out on the GFS and FIM
Quoting 235. sar2401:


Why do you think that happened, WKC?
Quoting weatherportricheyfl:
Is tampa going to get flooding from whatever this is or is it just south to south central Florida
I answered this last night. No one knows. The GFS keeps moving whatever this slug of moisture is, or might be, out in time. It's now next Tuesday, 8 days from now. None of us here have any better answers than the NWS, and most have a lot worse. Keep checking with the Tampa NWS about the possibility of heavy rains. They'll let you know with plenty of advance warning.
Quoting 166. flsky:

Will circulation form in the NW GOM near Texas?




That's an upper level low. Not on the surface.
Tehran, Iran is reporting a massive haboob dust storm came through the city with 70mph+ wind gusts.

At least 4 reported dead
EURO never seems to move 93e much? Nothing in GOM/BOC until 216hrs.

edit...does show weak low pressure going into Mexico 96hrs.
Quoting sar2401:

This is really driving me nuts. I can't be the only one having problems accessing the NHC and SPC sites, am I? Your graphic shows as broken and I get a can't connect error when I try to view it in a new tab. I have cleared my cache and browsing history, and that helps...for about 5 minutes. This has been going on for about 36 hours.
It's happening to me as well... Except I've had trouble with it for days.
Quoting 231. hurricanes2018:

watch out for Invest 93E MAYBE Going in the GOM by the end of this week to!!

Maybe maybe not

Quoting 235. sar2401:


Why do you think that happened, WKC?


Conditions are unfavourable and expected to not get better IN THE BOC and W GOM



93E/PRE-TD2E
Looking good
LLCOC near 13.1N/13.0N 93.9W/94.0W
Movement slowly N-NE
Quoting CybrTeddy:


You're not alone, I've also been having problems accessing the NHC site (although not the SPC). Everything is broken just when you don't want it to be, it seems.

Phew. I was beginning to think it was me and my computer. This started happening at literally a couple of minutes after midnight June 1 (EDT). I have had problems reaching the NHC or the SPC or even the NWS site in Birmingham on an intermittent basis, and sometimes all three are unreachable. This doesn't instill me with a lot of confidence when we get a real storm.
Quoting 182. StormTrackerScott:

This is the best depiction of what appears to be a TS on the GFS thus far.

168hrs


It's just a matter of how the situation materializes now that the GFS is once again depicting something different, and the storm being further out in time. It appears 93E will be the main attention grabber as it will most likely have to die out before we can get anything to transfer over to the Atlantic.
Quoting sar2401:

Phew. I was beginning to think it was me and my computer. This started happening at literally a couple of minutes after midnight June 1 (EDT). I have had problems reaching the NHC or the SPC or even the NWS site in Birmingham on an intermittent basis, and sometimes all three are unreachable. This doesn't instill me with a lot of confidence when we get a real storm.


Are you using Chrome? I keep getting an "Oops! Google Chrome could not find www.nhc.noaa.gov" when I go onto the NHC.
Quoting 242. yonzabam:



It started on Friday, causing disruption to air travel, and has now subsided. Unless you have a psychic hotline, there's no reason to suppose it will continue to erupt big time.


6 hours ago: @johnseach
#Sangeang Api volcano, #Indonesia. Ash 14,000 ft altitude extending 25 nautical miles west.

Models going on and off with cyclones in months of June and July is exactly why I don't pay attention to those models during this time of the year. It just doesn't happen 90% of times. It's better to be patience and wait for NHC to name a storm :) The time will go by faster
93E reminds me of Agatha in 2010.
I see, season is officially opened on this blog :-)
May you all survive unscathed; I'll follow your fate in any case.
Concerning other weather news from all over the world (f.e. a deadly sandstorm just hit Tehran) I guess I'll better spam weatherhistorian's blog from now on (current one is about the serious heat wave in Asia). Greetings from Germany, which is expecting at least a little heat wave next weekend :-)
Hey guys been awhile since I posted but I am trying to figure out if I should be excited or worried about this year. I keep thinking Andrew and 2004. Secondly it seems we may have an event near/on top of me. I'm on the east coast nipple of central Florida and the model runs seem consistent with a system rolling over Florida to start the season. What are your thoughts? And tyler, Levi, trop13, and of course our precambrian sensei gro, I always look forward to your take on these. Keeper I didn't forget you either and there are quite a few others her whose opinions I value. So does anyone remember me?
I'm sure gro does because I picked on him quite often (unless his dementia finally kicked in after 1500 years of decay). I always look forward to the season when I know I can come here and talk weather/have fun
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Maybe maybe not



Conditions are unfavourable and expected to not get better IN THE BOC and W GOM

Wrong answer. You notice it didn't shift the AOI into the W Caribbean either. The GFS simply moved the timeline out past five days. If you read the discussion, you'll see the NHC still expects to see a weak low form in the BOC later in the week. It's just not going to do so (if it does so at all) within the five day windows used by the NHC. The only thing that changed was the model, and it will continue to do so at until there's an actual low.
The Yale Climate Forum presents an overview of recently published papers on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and its date with destiny. Particularly worthy of note is the discussion of Meltwater Pulses. As Dr. James Hansen describes it after the last Ice Age there was a serious pulse of melting lasting 400 years and running at the rate of one meter of sea level rise ever 20 years. Should we be forcing the physics of the planet to that extent, we simply do not have the civil engineering capacity to keep up with the changes to our coastal regions. -RGD

Read more at Climate Crocks,




Quoting 256. Bluestorm5:

Models going on and off with cyclones in months of June and July is exactly why I don't pay attention to those models during this time of the year. It just doesn't happen 90% of times. It's better to be patience and wait for NHC to name a storm :) The time will go by faster


Wait till later on. Every thunderstorm exiting west Africa will be the next Cape Verde hurricane.
No problem here getting to the NHC, the SPC or Birmingham sites.
Quoting 261. rayduray2013:

The Yale Climate Forum presents an overview of recently published papers on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and its date with destiny. Particularly worthy of note is the discussion of Meltwater Pulses. As Dr. James Hansen describes it after the last Ice Age there was a serious pulse of melting lasting 400 years and running at the rate of one meter of sea level rise ever 20 years. Should we be forcing the physics of the planet to that extent, we simply do not have the civil engineering capacity to keep up with the changes to our coastal regions. -RGD



Read more at Climate Crocks,





There was a lot more ice to melt at the end of the last ice age. A huge amount, compared to today.


Good afternoon

Another possibility for the BOC ??
One certainty we can be certain of ...

Next week will be very interesting, albeit not nearly as interesting as the week after that.

Until, finally, it is December 1 and all the interest is behind us, except for that which lies ahead.
The thick ash cloud of the Sumbawa Stratovolcano has shot up to approximately 50,000 feet!!! Remember the Tropopause is at 30,000 feet in the Tropics! Mount Tambora erupted not too far from here in 1815 which partly led to the infamous "Year without a Summer" for the East U.S. in 1816!





Quoting tropicalnewbee:
Hey guys been awhile since I posted but I am trying to figure out if I should be excited or worried about this year. I keep thinking Andrew and 2004. Secondly it seems we may have an event near/on top of me. I'm on the east coast nipple of central Florida and the model runs seem consistent with a system rolling over Florida to start the season. What are your thoughts? And tyler, Levi, trop13, and of course our precambrian sensei gro, I always look forward to your take on these. Keeper I didn't forget you either and there are quite a few others her whose opinions I value. So does anyone remember me?
I'm sure gro does because I picked on him quite often (unless his dementia finally kicked in after 1500 years of decay). I always look forward to the season when I know I can come here and talk weather/have fun

Hi newbee. I remember you quite well, nice to see you again. Lots of hot air about models and Florida been tossed about, but here's what we know. There's an invest in the Eastern Pacific off the west coast of Mexico. It will likely become a tropical depression within the next day if not sooner. It's expected by shorter range models that this depression will move NE over Mexico and end up in the Bay of Campheche. When this happens is still not know, but possibly sometime between Thursday and Saturday. Whatever develops from that should slowly move NNE in the Gulf, over Cuba, and finally over Florida. There's no certainty this will happen at all, and even less in terms of time frame or intensity. There is nothing on the immediate horizon for Florida. No one knows what this season will be like either. Pay attention to what the NWS and NHC are forecasting. Except for a few actual mets, the rest of us are amateurs, with some better than others. You can safely ignore any posts that say they know what the track or intensity of any storm over five days out is going to be.
If something materializes, it will be a very typical June, Gulf of Mexico, storm. It would be fighting with the usual dry air and plagued by shear. Conditions will not be very favorable.

12z GFS is forecasting a tropical storm, nonetheless.

Btw, hello everyone, hope all is well!
end of the ECMWF run


This bear is living the dream.

"The ash cloud from the first eruption is around 20,000 and 50,000 feet high and around 15 km wide, according to reports. It is moving south-easterly over Australia. A second, now over Darwin is sitting at around 45,000 feet, while a third is over Bali". Independent U.K.
Quoting 260. sar2401:


Wrong answer. You notice it didn't shift the AOI into the W Caribbean either. The GFS simply moved the timeline out past five days. If you read the discussion, you'll see the NHC still expects to see a weak low form in the BOC later in the week. It's just not going to do so (if it does so at all) within the five day windows used by the NHC. The only thing that changed was the model, and it will continue to do so at until there's an actual low.

Actually it is the correct answer anyway I don't got no time to mess around and argue with you right now I got somewhere to go so bye

Quoting 265. kmanislander:



Good afternoon

Another possibility for the BOC ??


Maybe maybe not NHC says not GFS says no the present conditions say no

Anyway I'm getting late to a meeting I gotta go bye till later we will puck up the arguments later maybe like after 5pm
Quoting weatherbro:
The thick ash cloud of the Sumbawa Stratovolcano has shot up to approximately 50,000 feet!!! Remember the Stratopause is at 30,000 feet in the Tropics! Mount Tambora erupted not too far from here in 1815 which partly led to the infamous "Year without a Summer" for the East U.S. in 1816!






You actually have no idea about the upper air at all, do you???? The stratopause occurs at around 31 miles up in the atmosphere near the Equator, not 30,000 feet. Mt Tambora was probably the biggest eruption in at least 1,500 years. Mount Sangeang has been erupting on and off for most of the 20th century. This yet another insignificant eruption compared to Tambora. At least copy and paste things from sites that know a little something about the subject!!!!
The vorticity will be strung out and the storm would be placed on the northern side of an upper ridge which will be in the central Caribbean. Chances for development into any kind of system look rather slim.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Actually it is the correct answer anyway I don't got no time to mess around and argue with you right now I got somewhere to go so bye


Maybe maybe not NHC says not GFS says no the present conditions say no

Anyway I'm getting late to a meeting I gotta go bye till later we will puck up the arguments later maybe like after 5pm

No, that's not what the NHC says -

WEAK SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG THE TROUGH MIDWEEK.

It's the facts, WKC, not an argument.
Quoting 273. weatherbro:

"The ash cloud from the first eruption is around 20,000 and 50,000 feet high and around 15 km wide, according to reports. It is moving south-easterly over Australia. A second, now over Darwin is sitting at around 45,000 feet, while a third is over Bali". Independent U.K.


You forgot to add that was the story in the Independent on Friday
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
This bear is living the dream.



Lol. I saw that earlier captioned "Eat your heart out Goldy Locks." :D
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
This bear is living the dream.


LOL. Worst Photoshop job ever. :-)
Quoting 280. sar2401:


LOL. Worst Photoshop job ever. :-)


Try again. True story and happened this weekend in Daytona Beach.

Summer in the Northern Hemisphere doesn't officially start until June 21, but last week in Florida a forward-thinking black bear got a head start on the rest of us.

Vincent James of Daytona Beach told WESH-TV he saw the bear climb into the hammock on Thursday and proceed to lounge like "a tourist or something."

According to James, this bear stayed in the hammock for about 20 minutes, relaxing and allowing a photographer to shoot several soon-to-be widely shared photos of the unlikely visitor.

Fellow residents have recently reported several sightings of black bears roaming the neighborhood, sifting through trash cans.

Officials with the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission have been warning Floridians for months not to feed the bears.

In January, wildlife law enforcement officers arrested an 81-year-old woman in Sebring, Fla., after she repeatedly refused to stop feeding bears on her property.

According to police, the woman, Mary Musselman, was feeding the bears as many as 18 bowls of dog food at a time. One bear, captured on her property in November, had to be euthanized.

"A fed bear is a dead bear," Gary Morse, a spokesman for the commission, told WFLA-TV. "You cannot relocate a bear that's become a nuisance. No matter where you put them they're going to exhibit that behavior and the behavior will become worse over time to where it may be a threat to personal safety."
93E sparking off some very strong convection the last couple of frames:



Quoting sar2401:

LOL. Worst Photoshop job ever. :-)


It's for real. I saw it on local news. Google bear in hammock.
Quoting 280. sar2401:


LOL. Worst Photoshop job ever. :-)


Not a photoshop, look it up and see for yourself.

Bears know comfort, especially Florida bears apparently.
Also something interesting to watch is that in general, the North Pacific is anomalously warm. (Developing El Niño, as well as a positive look to the PDO)
Quoting yonzabam:


You forgot to add that was the story in the Independent on Friday

Doesn't matter. He's just another drive by poster. It's all part of the "Global Cooling" meme, aided by all these volcanoes, don't cha know? Anyone who thinks the stratopause begins at 30,000 feet knows zero about the atmosphere, except what he copied and pasted from a really crummy denier site.
Login in for the first time this season. Lets see what this year brings in regards to Hurricanes. Last year was to be very active and we got nothing. This year is to be slow and we might be surprised. The only real prediction is that mother nature is in charge. A big hello to all and a big welcome to thoses who are joining this blog for the first time this season.
Quoting 284. Jedkins01:



Not a photoshop, look it up and see for yourself.

Bears know comfort, especially Florida bears apparently.


Someone should throw him a cold beer and some chips.
Quoting 266. FBMinFL:

One certainty we can be certain of ...

Next week will be very interesting, albeit not nearly as interesting as the week after that.

Until, finally, it is December 1 and all the interest is behind us, except for that which lies ahead.
then maybe not or maybe it is D
Quoting 282. Envoirment:

93E sparking off some very strong convection the last couple of frames:





Reminds me of Amanda when she started out
Quoting 287. WINDSMURF:

Login in for the first time this season. Lets see what this year brings in regards to Hurricanes. Last year was to be very active and we got nothing. This year is to be slow and we might be surprised. The only real prediction is that mother nature is in charge. A big hello to all and a big welcome to thoses who are joining this blog for the first time this season.
welcome back smurf
Quoting 282. Envoirment:

93E sparking off some very strong convection the last couple of frames:




it is time 02E
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
This bear is living the dream.



This bear video has been shown on the local news here in Fort Myers for the past few days. The bear does go all over the back yard and plays with the hammock eventually laying down in it for a short break.

He's probably asking himself "where's the hot tub?"
Quoting 182. StormTrackerScott:

This is the best depiction of what appears to be a TS on the GFS thus far.

168hrs

If that were to pan out, the low would be over some very warm water.
Quoting 288. StormTrackerScott:



Someone should throw him a cold beer and some chips.
Once you feed them they'll never leave!.
Quoting 288. StormTrackerScott:


Someone should throw him a cold beer and some chips.


No. He'll never leave for the summer. He'll be entrenched.
8-)
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Try again. True story and happened this weekend in Daytona Beach.

Summer in the Northern Hemisphere doesn't officially start until June 21, but last week in Florida a forward-thinking black bear got a head start on the rest of us.

Vincent James of Daytona Beach told WESH-TV he saw the bear climb into the hammock on Thursday and proceed to lounge like "a tourist or something."

According to James, this bear stayed in the hammock for about 20 minutes, relaxing and allowing a photographer to shoot several soon-to-be widely shared photos of the unlikely visitor.

Fellow residents have recently reported several sightings of black bears roaming the neighborhood, sifting through trash cans.

Officials with the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission have been warning Floridians for months not to feed the bears.

In January, wildlife law enforcement officers arrested an 81-year-old woman in Sebring, Fla., after she repeatedly refused to stop feeding bears on her property.

According to police, the woman, Mary Musselman, was feeding the bears as many as 18 bowls of dog food at a time. One bear, captured on her property in November, had to be euthanized.

"A fed bear is a dead bear," Gary Morse, a spokesman for the commission, told WFLA-TV. "You cannot relocate a bear that's become a nuisance. No matter where you put them they're going to exhibit that behavior and the behavior will become worse over time to where it may be a threat to personal safety."

I see a very grainy video of this bear here. I don't see the bear lounging in the hammock in the video. I haven't seen the bear in a hammock on any of the videos online, just the still shots. I'm no expert, but look at the sharp cutoff between the bottom of the bear and white of the hammock. That's hard to reproduce at night. The bear clearly was wandering around the neighborhood. I'm not so sure he was really lounging in a hammock.
GFS push the time back..AGAIN!.I told you guys that instead of something materializing on the 27th of may to wait until June 27th for something to form.
My bad Sar. I meant to say the Tropopause not the Stratopause. I get those two mixed up. doe! Plus I don't doubt Man-made GW any more. I was just making an observation.

Some estimates place the cloud at 20KM.
Quoting 296. washingtonian115:

Once you feed them they'll never leave!.
don't feed the bears or they will be on the couch in the living room when ya get up
302. csmda
Ahh Florida black bears. They are NOT my friends. Before we moved here we were a little west and backed up to lots of woods. I was teased by my neighbor for chasing off a mom and her 3 cubs by yelling "you're a very bad bear" at her. She had come the previous night and made a huge mess! Another night a 500lb male had my lab backed up to my sliding glass door. That was my first encounter with a bear and I almost had a heart attack. My poor dog just sat there as still as she could possibly be. He was massive but that still didn't stop me from opening that door and getting my dog. I remember fish and wild life swore bears weren't that big in the pan handle. They got quite the surprise when they had to track him down and euthanize him. Biggest one they had seen in the area. He had a bad habit of sleeping on front porches. Just sad he had to be put down because people can't lock their trashcans and stop feeding them.
Quoting 280. sar2401:


LOL. Worst Photoshop job ever. :-)


I thought it was real.
Black bear enjoys repose in a hammock in Florida neighborhood
T.C.F.A.
93E/INV/XX/XX
Quoting weatherbro:

Well, that link didn't work. Maybe you can practice some more by clicking on "Preview Comment" and seeing if the link is actually any good next time before you post.
Lol.The bear is just chill'in.I guess he's gonna take advantage of the state he lives in.I mean they do say it's paradise down there :).
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


I thought it was real.
Black bear enjoys repose in a hammock in Florida neighborhood

The same video that's been posted everywhere. Like I said, I didn't see a bear lounging in the hammock in the video, something I would have tried to get if I was doing a video. I see a nice clear shot of the bear in the hammock on a still. The guy taking the pictures had some really nice camera equipment. Maybe he does PS, maybe not, but the stills look faked to me. That fact the same shots are all over the net proves nothing, nor does my skepticism. However, remember the guy who's car was found 20 miles away after the Arkansas tornadoes? I tend to be skeptical of viral things on the net.
From today's news.
For all the bear lovers. A local bear decided to use a Cape Coral dock as a diving board into the canal for a swim.
We've had bears run down the golf course in the middle of the day here in our neighborhood.

From NBCnews Fort Myers


img src="
From the CNN article that Georgiastormz posted

Don't feed the bears!
Wildlife officials also discourage the warm, fuzzy feeling some residents have for the black bears, pointing to the dangers they pose.
Wildlife law enforcement officers arrested an 81-year-old woman from Sebring in February for feeding loads of dog food to bears on her property.
She dished out up to 18 bowls at a time to furry bunches gathered in her yard.
The Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission warned her multiple times to stop, but she would not, for fear the animals would starve without her.
Officers were afraid the bears would get hazardously close to humans, and they killed one bear that was frequenting her feedings.
Once a bear feels too at home among people, relocating it doesn't help, the FWC said back then.
It will keep coming back.
So, what's the weather going to be like for England v Ecuador in Miami on Wednesday? As a Scotsman, I fancy having a bet on Ecuador. They'll handle the conditions better.
Bear at Kismit Park today. Bears must be taking over Fl.
Study finds that female named hurricanes kill more people then male named hurricanes because people don't respect them as much study finds.

From CWG
Link
Quoting 309. washingtonian115:

From the CNN article that Georgiastormz posted

Don't feed the bears!
Wildlife officials also discourage the warm, fuzzy feeling some residents have for the black bears, pointing to the dangers they pose.
Wildlife law enforcement officers arrested an 81-year-old woman from Sebring in February for feeding loads of dog food to bears on her property.
She dished out up to 18 bowls at a time to furry bunches gathered in her yard.
The Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission warned her multiple times to stop, but she would not, for fear the animals would starve without her.
Officers were afraid the bears would get hazardously close to humans, and they killed one bear that was frequenting her feedings.
Once a bear feels too at home among people, relocating it doesn't help, the FWC said back then.
It will keep coming back.

but why kill them for looking for food

I bet there is some humans rustling in the dumpsters for food as well can we shoot them too
Quoting weatherbro:
My bad Sar. I meant to say the Tropopause not the Stratopause. I get those two mixed up. doe! Plus I don't doubt Man-made GW any more. I was just making an observation.

Right. That's why you believed an ash cloud at 30,000 feet could somehow be linked to the biggest eruption in the last 1,500 years. That's why you still don't know the tropopause averages 56,000 feet near the equator, not 30,000 feet. You no more believe in AGW than my cat can fly. That's fine, you're entitled to your beliefs, just don't try to present it as neutral science.
Quoting 305. sar2401:


Well, that link didn't work. Maybe you can practice some more by clicking on "Preview Comment" and seeing if the link is actually any good next time before you post.


Maybe u should take that condescending attitude elsewhere. No need for that on this blog.
I had to chime in on the bear thread. I live in Panama City and we had a bear in a tree in a neighborhood a few weeks ago and FWC darted him, tagged him, and took him 40 miles away to be released in the Apalach National Forest. Two weeks later the same bear was back...in the same neighborhood...in the same tree. Rinse and repeat.
As we get into the E-Pac season in earnest, and the pending Atlantic season, while many obsess and focus on the longer term model runs, those rarely come to pass and the general rule of thumb discussed on here (and by Dr. M) is that anything more than 5 days out model-wise is fairly unreliable.  The short term-3-5 day runs are better.  And, for the real short term (24-48 hours), your own "eyes" are probably the best tool along with the basic current charts; the CIMSS sheer/vorticity charts, current ssts, the NOAA Satt loops and Hi-Rez imaging products, and reliable surface pressure readings from nearby buoys, ships, or recon.

With that in mind, minus real time pressure readings, 93E is looking very healthy at the moment.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
but why kill them for looking for food

I bet there is some humans rustling in the dumpsters for food as well can we shoot them too

So did the game wardens give her a citation? It's not the bears fault that they want to get free food. It's this nice old lady's fault. That's why we handed out citations to people who were breaking the law. We have them all over the place here as well. Had one in town the other day that was eating up all the food people put out for feral cats. Until we get people to stop doing things like this, we'll continue to be overrun with bears and feral cats.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
I would hazard a guess that it is about to reach tropical storm status:

Floater One AVN Enanced image
Working on a blog for 93E. Going to wait and see if the NHC is going to declare it TD Two-E at the 5pm advisory before I post it though.
Quoting yonzabam:
So, what's the weather going to be like for England v Ecuador in Miami on Wednesday? As a Scotsman, I fancy having a bet on Ecuador. They'll handle the conditions better.

Hot. Sticky. A few showers, or possibly torrential rains and floods. Or no rain at all. Typical rainy season day in Miami. The real question - can England beat Ecuador regardless of the weather? :-)
Quoting 318. sar2401:


So did the game wardens give her a citation? It's not the bears fault that they want to get free food. It's this nice old lady's fault. That's why we handed out citations to people who were breaking the law. We have them all over the place here as well. Had one in town the other day that was eating up all the food people put out for feral cats. Until we get people to stop doing things like this, we'll continue to be overrun with bears and feral cats.


I have peeps doing same thing here

putting stuff out for the critters
I just pick it up as fast as they dump it
and put it in the dumpster inside the garbage room
also keep the lids locked so nothing can get in there as well
as long as I do that no problems
but I never had to kill anything and never will unless iam going to eat it
Quoting 314. sar2401:


Right. That's why you believed an ash by 123HD" style="border: none !important; display: inline-block !important; text-indent: 0px !important; float: none !important; font-style: normal !important; font-variant: normal !important; font-weight: normal !important; font-size: 14px !important; line-height: 21px !important; font-family: verb, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif !important; height: auto !important; margin: 0px !important; min-height: 0px !important; min-width: 0px !important; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline !important; width: auto !important; text-decoration: underline !important; background: transparent !important;">cloud at 30,000 feet could somehow be linked to the biggest eruption in the last 1,500 years. That's why you still don't know the tropopause averages 56,000 feet near the equator, not 30,000 feet. You no by 123HD" style="border: none !important; display: inline-block !important; text-indent: 0px !important; float: none !important; font-style: normal !important; font-variant: normal !important; font-weight: normal !important; font-size: 14px !important; line-height: 21px !important; font-family: verb, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif !important; height: auto !important; margin: 0px !important; min-height: 0px !important; min-width: 0px !important; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline !important; width: auto !important; text-decoration: underline !important; background: transparent !important;">more believe in AGW than my cat can fly. That's fine, you're entitled to your beliefs, just don't try to present it as neutral science.


Some estimates claim that the ash reached up as far as 20KM! If true, this could give us a Winter to remember. Plus I wasn't trying to imply that this eruption was just as bad as Mt. Tambora(which it wasn't). Just simply indicating that it happened in the same general area(Indonesia, around 8 degrees South). But your right about the Troposphere being considerably higher at the Equator as compared to the Poles(Especially the West Pacific Warm Pool where it is approximately 17-18KM high).
Quoting 321. TylerStanfield:

Working on a blog for 93E. Going to wait and see if the NHC is going to declare it TD Two-E at the 5pm advisory before I post it though.



TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO (EP022014) 20140602 1800 UTC


Link
Quoting washingtonian115:
GFS push the time back..AGAIN!.I told you guys that instead of something materializing on the 27th of may to wait until June 27th for something to form.


What year??
Extreme Weather in Iran on Monday, 02 June, 2014 at 16:32 (04:32 PM) UTC.
Description
heavy dust storm roared into Iran's capital Monday, blacking out the sun in a swirling cloud and tearing down trees in a squall that killed five people and injured 30, state television reported. The storm struck Tehran with winds of up to 110 kilometers per hour (68 mph), state television reported. Its report said the storm killed five people, while Iran's official IRNA news agency said it killed four people as winds hit 130 kilometers per hour (80 mph). The TV report said the storm broke trees and plunged the capital into darkness for several minutes. It said the storm caused a chain-reaction crash on a highway south of the capital with 20 vehicles and caused international flights to be cancelled. Air traffic controllers diverted several domestic flights to central Iran. Authorities asked children and the elderly, as well as those with heart problems, to remain indoors due to the dust. The TV report said heavy winds also engulfed parts of central Iran, but there were no reports of any casualties.
Landslide in Sri Lanka on Monday, 02 June, 2014 at 07:09 (07:09 AM) UTC.
Description
At least 10 people have been killed in landslides and floods in Sri Lanka, disaster management officials said on Monday. Seven people, including two children, were reported killed in the past 24 hours in landslides in Kalutara district, 50 kilometres south of the capital Colombo. An elderly couple was killed in a landslide on the outskirts of Colombo. Another resident in Kalutara district died in floods that have affected more than 1,000 families, the officials said. “We have called on the services of the navy and air force to rescue people marooned in floods while the army is helping to clear landslides,” an officer attached to the Disaster Management Centre said. Sri Lanka has seen heavy rains in the past two days, following a drought lasting more than five months.
China has been getting some blob looking landstorms..

Extreme Weather in China on Monday, 02 June, 2014 at 03:40 (03:40 AM) UTC.
Description
A hurricane hit northwest China's Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region on Saturday, leaving over 100 people stranded on a highway. The gale force winds also created a sandstorm, with visibility dropping to less than seven feet. Firefighters and highway traffic policemen arrived at the site with an armoured personnel carrier to rescue the travellers. They tied rope to the travellers' cars to help the passengers pull themselves into the rescue vehicle in the high winds. All the people standed on the highway were rescued.
Heat Wave in Egypt on Monday, 02 June, 2014 at 03:30 (03:30 AM) UTC.
Description
Egypt is expected to be struck by a heatwave starting Tuesday, said Egyptian Meteorological Authority Chairman Ahmed Hussein. "The heatwave’s peak will be on Wednesday," he said. Temperatures will exceed normal rates for this time of the year by 10-11 degrees celsius. The Highest temperature on Wednesday in Cairo will be 44 degrees celsius. Temperatures are expected to get lower beginning Thursday by 11-12 degrees celsius in Cairo and other governorates. The authority warned citizens against direct exposure to sun for long periods of time.
02E Click pic for loop.

Hey guys I'm back and seems like GFS starts the trend into the W Caribbean system development with 18Z
And I see we now have TD2E as expected
What exactly has caused this year's drop-off in Sea Surface Temperatures in the tropical Atlantic? Is this the beginning of the high AMO phase winding down, or a temporary fluke?