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Tropical Storm Amanda Forms in the Eastern Pacific; Not a Threat to Land

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:26 PM GMT on May 23, 2014

The season's first named storm of 2014, Tropical Storm Amanda, has formed in the Eastern Pacific. Amanda is over 600 miles southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico, and is not a threat to any land areas. The arrival date of May 23 for season's first Eastern Pacific tropical storm is a bit early, compared to climatology. Usually, the first tropical storm of the season arrives on June 10, and the first hurricane on June 26. Last year, the season's first tropical storm, Alvin, formed on May 15, and the first hurricane, Barbara, occurred on May 29.


Figure 1. Friday morning satellite image of newly-born Tropical Storm Amanda.

Satellite loops show that Amanda has a moderately large area of heavy thunderstorms that are increasing in areal extent and intensity. WInd shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and the SHIPS model shows that sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are a very warm 29°C, which is well above the typical 26°C threshold needed to maintain a tropical storm. All conditions appear in place to allow Amanda to intensify into a hurricane, and the official NHC forecast brings Amanda to Category 1 strength by Sunday. On Tuesday, Amanda is expected to turn to the north and encounter higher wind shear and cooler waters, which should weaken the storm.


Figure 2. The departure of sea surface temperature from average over the Eastern Pacific shows a large area of warmer than average water over the typical hurricane breeding grounds off the coast of Mexico. These warm waters will likely persist through the summer and into fall, due to a developing El Niño event, and promote a more active than usual Eastern Pacific hurricane season.

NOAA predicts an above-normal or near-normal Eastern Pacific hurricane season: 17 named storms
As is usually the case when an El Niño event is threatening, NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 22, is calling for an active season. NOAA expects there to be 14 - 20 named storms, 7 - 11 hurricanes, 3 - 6 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 95% - 160% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 127.5% of average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. The outlook calls for a 50% chance of an above-normal season, a 40% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season. El Niño decreases the vertical wind shear over the tropical Eastern Pacific, favoring the development of more and stronger tropical cyclones. Since 1995 the Eastern Pacific has been in an era of low activity for hurricanes, but this pattern is expected to be offset in 2014 by the impacts of El Niño.

Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1
The Atlantic hurricane season starts in just over a week, and the long-range GFS model continues to suggest that the Western Caribbean will be capable of brewing the season's first "Invest" during the first week of June. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, is currently weak, but the latest GFS forecast predicts that the MJO will strengthen slightly in early June, and might be in a position to increase thunderstorm activity over the Western Caribbean then. While long range 10 - 16 day forecasts are notoriously unreliable, early June is a common time of year for the Western Caribbean to see a tropical disturbance form. Residents of Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Honduras, and Nicaragua should anticipate the possibility of a multi-day period of disturbed weather with heavy rainfall beginning around June 1.

Have a great Memorial Day weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 2000. AtHomeInTX:



Yeah, the waters over here just reached 80 a couple days ago. But I'm sure they're not uniformly so in the gulf yet.


They're always [relatively] cooler and shallower along the coastal shelf waters, but even moreso now. They're still firmly below 80F.
Quoting 1999. StPetersburgFL:



Ok Kid. Andrea and Debbie were nailed with intensity well in advance. Why would this system be any different?


Scott's an actual met, btw. I respect him a lot. He wouldn't just make stuff up.
Quoting 1997. Ameister12:

Amanda's eye is warming again. She's certainly persistent.



Prodigious ACE producer if nothing else, Adam.
Water temps are 84 here in tampa bay and 82 along the coast. That could support a tropical storm of good strength.
Usually if the models show a storm hitting a certain place many days out, there is a pretty good chance it won't hit that area.
Eh... offshore buoys show SSTs approaching 26C off the immediate coastal area where the modeled likely ghost storm ends up. Maybe a shade warmer than I thought, but we still need a period of dominant ridging to warm the Gulf SSTs/OHC to where we want them.
Quoting 2005. opal92nwf:

Usually if the models show a storm hitting a certain place many days out, there is a pretty good chance it won't hit that area.
.

Not if it is consistent and goes with the normal June pattern of troughs swinging cyclones into Florida. But Ur right gfs could still fail.
Quoting 2006. KoritheMan:

Eh... offshore buoys show SSTs approaching 26C off the immediate coastal area where the modeled likely ghost storm ends up. Maybe a shade warmer than I thought, but we still need a period of dominant ridging to warm the Gulf SSTs/OHC to where we want them.


That might weaken it some but the baroclinic enhancement would keep it strong. This is easily gonna be 999 mb or lower and gonna whip the caymans Carib and floriday. Unless the gfs is on crack then it's just fantasy.
Quoting 2007. StPetersburgFL:

.

Not if it is consistent and goes with the normal June pattern of troughs swinging cyclones into Florida. Me and wunderkid got this nailed. So many people bashing our forecasts only to get showed up later on.


Okay then. No credible person would use that kind of wording with ANY forecast, much less for one that has yet to transition to reality.

One of the first steps with forecasting is knowing that you don't have anything nailed.
Quoting 2009. KoritheMan:


.

Okay then. No credible person would use that kind of wording with ANY forecast, much less for one that has yet to transition to reality.

One of the first steps with forecasting is knowing that you don't have anything nailed.

Kori I love reading Ur stuff u keep it smooth on here dawg.
bro I got this. If I am wrong I will gladly eat my crow while wearing an opposite gender suit.
Quoting 1990. StPetersburgFL:



GFS has increased the intensity significantly from 1004 and broad to 999 mb. I think a strong tropical storm with possibly a brief run at hurricane status may occur with a path from the Caribbean. Florida should see a good swath of 50 to 65 mph winds if this keeps up and if it deepens past 999 mb since gfs is trending with intensification. Once it weakens near shore due to cooler waters wind will decrease, but recall with Andrea last year the baroclinic enhancement to 65 mph. We could see that and thus a much stronger storm up to landfall. The Cayman Islands should also get pounded for a few days with high winds of tropical storm strength.

Yeah
Also IMHO I think this would track further E staying away from Honduras/Nicaragua land mass and a sharper NEward turn impacting more of the Cayman area NW/W central Cuba and Central Florida becoming much stronger maybe weakens a bit before landfalling in Florida
Maybe anyway it's a waiting game
Quoting StPetersburgFL:


bro I got this. If I am wrong I will gladly eat my crow while wearing an opposite gender suit.


There should be another unwritten blog rule that states a picture must be posted showing the blogger following through on their "I will gladly eat crow or do other things". Would bring some more humor in and crack down on some of the more interesting forecasts.

Not saying yours doesn't have a chance to pan out, just a thought of mine.
Quoting 2010. StPetersburgFL:


Kori I love reading Ur stuff u keep it smooth on here dawg.
bro I got this. If I am wrong I will gladly eat my crow while wearing an opposite gender suit.


I have never, since I was like 16, said anything remotely akin to what you did earlier. I might say it after the fact, because then we can take an objective look at things and evaluate our forecasts. But, just a friendly piece of advice: you won't come very far with that attitude.

Confidence is one thing, and if that's all you're exuding, that's fine. Arrogance, foolishness, and certainty are things that should never accompany a forecast.

Plus chances are if you're that confident in a particular storm direction, there could be a modicum of bias on the subconscious level. And at that point it's no longer science.
Quoting KoritheMan:


They're always [relatively] cooler and shallower along the coastal shelf waters, but even moreso now. They're still firmly below 80F.


Hovering right around the 80 mark here. Well the ones that show water temp. Some are lower around 77.

TX Point

Station TXPT2
NOS
Location: 29.689N 93.842W
Date: Tue, 27 May 2014 05:00:00 UTC
Winds: SE (140°) at 19.0 kt gusting to 22.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.02 in and falling
Air Temperature: 77.5 F
Water Temperature: 80.2 F

Cameron

Station CAPL1
NOS
Location: 29.768N 93.343W
Date: Tue, 27 May 2014 05:00:00 UTC
Winds: S (170°) at 15.9 kt gusting to 21.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.04 in and falling
Air Temperature: 77.9 F
Water Temperature: 81.3 F

High Island

Station HIST2
TCOON
Location: 29.595N 94.39W
Date: Tue, 27 May 2014 05:00:00 UTC
Winds: SSE (160°) at 8.0 kt gusting to 12.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.01 in and falling
Air Temperature: 76.8 F
Water Temperature: 79.7 F
Quoting 2011. wunderkidcayman:


Yeah
Also IMHO I think this would track further E staying away from Honduras/Nicaragua land mass and a sharper NEward turn impacting more of the Cayman area NW/W central Cuba and Central Florida becoming much stronger maybe weakens a bit before landfalling in Florida
Maybe anyway it's a waiting game
.

Yea man get ready for an active week according to the models the caymans and Caribbean get pounded for several days. You might get some big flooding from rain bro.
Quoting 2013. KoritheMan:



I have never, since I was like 16, said anything remotely akin to what you did earlier. I might say it after the fact, because then we can take an objective look at things and evaluate our forecasts. But, just a friendly piece of advice: you won't come very far with that attitude.

Confidence is one thing, and if that's all you're exuding, that's fine. Arrogance, foolishness, and certainty are things that should never accompany a forecast.

Plus chances are if you're that confident in a particular storm direction, there could be a modicum of bias on the subconscious level. And at that point it's no longer science.


Aight bro I gotcha. Yea it's too early to say intensity and landfall. Should be an interesting wait and see. I love these early season mamas.
Quoting 2012. Astrometeor:



There should be another unwritten blog rule that states a picture must be posted showing the blogger following through on their "I will gladly eat crow or do other things". Would bring some more humor in and crack down on some of the more interesting forecasts.

Not saying yours doesn't have a chance to pan out, just a thought of mine.
.

I like what Taz had earlier.
Quoting 1999. StPetersburgFL:



Ok Kid. Andrea and Debbie were nailed with intensity well in advance. Why would this system be any different? It is an early season storm for which parameters will be favorable, not the fantasy type we saw the gfs pull during August last year.

I love it when people bash forecasts only to get showed up later on when the storm verifies. This has happened a lot on here.


Lol
They all go quiet after it's formed yeah see it all the time

Quoting 2004. StPetersburgFL:

Water temps are 84 here in tampa bay and 82 along the coast. That could support a tropical storm of good strength.

It's scorching hot in the Cayman Area

No but fo real I love all y'all my weather homies in the WunderHood. Peace homies, we argue but at he end of the day we all homies and homies go to bat for homies cuz we like BrothaZ.
Quoting 2018. wunderkidcayman:


Lol
They all go quiet after it's formed yeah see it all the time


It's scorching hot in the Cayman Area



You all must have some really high ocean heat content down there with all that heating. Man if something goes over those waters this season things will get crazy .
Quoting 2013. KoritheMan:



I have never, since I was like 16, said anything remotely akin to what you did earlier. I might say it after the fact, because then we can take an objective look at things and evaluate our forecasts. But, just a friendly piece of advice: you won't come very far with that attitude.

Confidence is one thing, and if that's all you're exuding, that's fine. Arrogance, foolishness, and certainty are things that should never accompany a forecast.

Plus chances are if you're that confident in a particular storm direction, there could be a modicum of bias on the subconscious level. And at that point it's no longer science.


Hey Kori I hear ya but take it easy remember he's the new guy and your the Vet he will learn and you can help him so don't go down this road
And beat up the new guy ok

Quoting 2015. StPetersburgFL:

.

Yea man get ready for an active week according to the models the caymans and Caribbean get pounded for several days. You might get some big flooding from rain bro.

Hmm maybe
I see you already hyped up and ready to go that's good but can we just try to bring it down some please we are nearing the time to be hyped but it's not the time yet so a little hype is ok you can go all out later durning the week going weekend

Quoting 2016. StPetersburgFL:



Aight bro I gotcha. Yea it's too early to say intensity and landfall. Should be an interesting wait and see. I love these early season mamas.

Yeah wait and see ok

Quoting 2019. StPetersburgFL:

No but fo real I love all y'all my weather homies in the WunderHood. Peace homies, we argue but at he end of the day we all homies and homies go to bat for homies cuz we like BrothaZ.

Yeah bro
Man I do have to commend you on your vibes atleast ya keep it cool

Quoting 2020. StPetersburgFL:


You all must have some really high ocean heat content down there with all that heating. Man if something goes over those waters this season things will get crazy .

Yeah that's Cayman for ya

Quoting 2021. wunderkidcayman:



Hey Kori I hear ya but take it easy remember he's the new guy and your the Vet he will learn and you can help him so don't go down this road
And beat up the new guy ok



I hesitated before I made my statement, to be a little more peaceable in my reproach. Don't worry. I got it. :P
Rookies, like a fan in fantasy baseball camp; they all think they can hit the fastball. Usually their strong confidence is followed by a swing and a miss. St. Pete and WK are enthusiastic though and that's good to see and that bluster will possibly be followed up with the real thing. Conditions should, although unknown at this point what they'll actually be, permit for a TD/TS at the end of May, first week of June. If the best minds in the world who study hurricane formation for a living don't have any kinda confidence in whether or not these LONG range models will verify what makes you two think you know so much more than they do? Humble yourself and you will be exalted, exalt yourself and you will be humbled. A lesson that's not often learned early in life.
Quoting 2023. KoritheMan:


I hesitated before I made my statement, to be a little more peaceable in my reproach. Don't worry. I got it. :P


Ok ;)
Wind shear over Amanda peaked near 25kt this evening and will begin to slowly subside as the upper-level low to its northwest pulls away. While that magnitude of shear would normally hurt a tropical cyclone, it appears to have affected the storm very little, mainly because the shear vectors are from the south and southwest...nearly parallel to the direction the system is moving (N). That said, this does not mean that we should see Amanda re-intensify appreciably over the next few days, as the storm is still tracking into increasingly cool waters and a drier environment.

For the moment, however, it remains over warm waters and a decently moist environment, and it's taking advantage of such. As Adam pointed, out the eye is warming again--convection in the eyewall is cooling as well. Despite the low-level and mid-level centers being tilted, a 0338z microwave pass showed that the core of the hurricane remains very vigorous--more so than earlier today, actually. The latest satellite intensity estimate from UW-CIMSS ADT is 109.8kt. Because this spike in intensity might be short-lived, they may not raise the intensity of the storm quite this much. Amanda is probably a major hurricane again though.

2027. xcool
gfs now join cmc western Caribbean
Persistent little thing this Amanda,
Just sauntering along at about 4 mph in a northerly direction with all the time in the world.

Warm and sunny in our zone today with lingering thunder storms to the north, nothing else to report in about.
Quoting 2027. xcool:

gfs now join cmc

For now waiting for 06Z run to see what it has in store
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
235 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 70W WILL CONTINUE W AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO
E END OF EPAC MONSOON CIRCULATION. MINIMAL IMPACT EXPECTED WITH
THIS WAVE. SECOND LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE ALONG 54W WILL MOVE INTO SE
CARIB TUE MORNING...THEN CENTRAL CARIB THROUGH WED NIGHT...WITH
GFS SHOWING SFC LOW DEVELOPING FROM WAVE IN W CARIB THIS WEEKEND.

They seem to prefer the GFS this time.
EP, 01, 2014052706, , BEST, 0, 140N, 1121W, 110, 954, HU
Quoting 2030. AtHomeInTX:

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
235 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 70W WILL CONTINUE W AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO
E END OF EPAC MONSOON CIRCULATION. MINIMAL IMPACT EXPECTED WITH
THIS WAVE. SECOND LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE ALONG 54W WILL MOVE INTO SE
CARIB TUE MORNING...THEN CENTRAL CARIB THROUGH WED NIGHT...WITH
GFS SHOWING SFC LOW DEVELOPING FROM WAVE IN W CARIB THIS WEEKEND.

They seem to prefer the GFS this time.


Well if NHC buys the idea well so do I ;)
Quoting 2031. Civicane49:

EP, 01, 2014052706, , BEST, 0, 140N, 1121W, 110, 954, HU

By the looks of it I'd say Cat 2 by mid morning
Quoting 2033. wunderkidcayman:


By the looks of it I'd say Cat 2 by mid morning


110 kt, that would make it a Category 3.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Well if NHC buys the idea well so do I ;)


I prefer the GFS too! Stinkin' EURO parks another monster ridge on TX. :)
Quoting 2034. Civicane49:



110 kt, that would make it a Category 3.

Yes I know that
But I'm saying Cat 2 by that time
Quoting 2035. AtHomeInTX:



I prefer the GFS too! Stinkin' EURO parks another monster ridge on TX. :)

Lol yeah
BULLETIN
HURRICANE AMANDA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014
200 AM PDT TUE MAY 27 2014

...AMANDA RESTRENGTHENS UNEXPECTEDLY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 112.2W
ABOUT 620 MI...995 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES
HURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014
200 AM PDT TUE MAY 27 2014

Amanda apparently still has some gas in the tank. The hurricane
appeared to be succumbing to strong vertical shear on Monday, but
its satellite presentation has improved markedly during the past
several hours. An eye has reappeared and is completely surrounded
by convective tops as cold as -85C. The shear is still affecting
the structure, however, with the clouds elongated from south to
north. Nonetheless, Dvorak estimates have risen to T6.0/115 kt
from TAFB, T5.5/102 kt from SAB, and T6.5/127 kt from the objective
ADT. The initial intensity is therefore raised to 110 kt based on
a conservative blend of these data.

The recent reintensification has resulted in a somewhat significant
change to the official intensity forecast. Weakening is expected
to resume soon due to strong south to southwesterly shear, which
should persist for another 24 hours or so. After that time,
however, an upper-level shortwave trough currently to the northwest
of Amanda is expected to lift northeastward and dampen, which
could leave the hurricane in a slightly more favorable upper-level
environment for a few days. Due to the higher initial intensity and
the more favorably evolving upper-level pattern, the NHC intensity
forecast shows more gradual weakening than before, and Amanda may
not become a remnant low until the very end of the forecast period.
Despite the adjustment, the updated forecast is near the lower end
of the intensity guidance and matches best with the FSU
Superensemble. The weakening trend could be even slower if the rest
of the intensity models end up being correct.

Amanda continues to move slowly north-northwestward...or 340/4 kt...
between a weak mid-level ridge over Mexico and a mid-/upper-level
trough near 20N128W. As the trough migrates eastward, Amanda is
forecast to continue moving slowly northward and then turn
northeastward by 48 hours. Once the cyclone weakens, however, weak
low-level flow off the coast of Mexico will likely cause it to
stall or meander by days 4 and 5. Although there is still a
significant amount of spread in the track guidance, nearly all of
the models have shifted to the right, with the GFS and ECMWF lying
on the eastern edge of the guidance envelope. The NHC track has
also been nudged eastward and lies to the right of the multi-model
consensus TVCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 14.2N 112.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 14.6N 112.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 15.1N 112.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 15.8N 111.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 16.4N 111.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 17.5N 110.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 31/0600Z 17.5N 109.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 01/0600Z 17.0N 110.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg
01E/MH/A/C3
Good morning.

Amanda continues to rack up the ACE numbers and with the intensity up again,it will get a few more units before it goes away. Now at 14.82 units.

Link
2042. Gearsts
06Z GFS update
This run is E of the last run so it's further E away from Honduras/Nicaragua it stays away from Yucatan Belize and Cozumel
Almost as strong as the last run
Still weakens before NW Florida

Disturbance/Invest starts around 29th/30th of May
Upgrades to TD around the 1st/2nd of June
Upgrades to TS around the 3rd of June
Latest GFS crushes FL with lots of rain as it has Tropical Storm sitting off the west coast of FL mid to late next week.

2045. LargoFl
a big bend landfall? to early to predict the impacts
2047. LargoFl
Check out the latest CPC weekly update and the latest sub-surface graphic update at my ENSO Blog.
2049. StormWx
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Latest GFS crushes FL with lots of rain as it has Tropical Storm sitting off the west coast of FL mid to late next week.



I love the adjectives you use when it rains in FL Scott. I'll have to add 'Crushes' to my arsenal when describing a rain shower! And i also love that model is 10 days out.
2050. LargoFl
way too early but gfs says it goes here,stay alert,could easily change in a week..............................
2051. StormWx
Well today is the 'official' start to the 'wet' season here in Central FL. Rain chances every day. We are going to be 'crushed' with average temperatures and going to be annihilated with 30% chances of rain all week. So be safe folks, lol.

Quoting 2049. StormWx:



I love the adjectives you use when it rains in FL Scott. I'll have to add 'Crushes' to my arsenal when describing a rain shower! And i also love that model is 10 days out.


Just like Central Florida got crushed with the record heat wave over the weekend.
Quoting 2053. GeoffreyWPB:




I counted about six clouds in the Caribbean in that shot. It is hard to believe the models due to that. But, we shall see.
2055. LargoFl
Quoting 2052. luvtogolf:



Just like Central Florida got crushed with the record heat wave over the weekend.
well it was HOT for may huh..more like august temps and humidity...no rain by my house but inland got some good storms yesterday
2056. LargoFl
2057. StormWx
Quoting luvtogolf:


Just like Central Florida got crushed with the record heat wave over the weekend.


Yeah, people in FL got pounded with typical summertime temps :o) Now that the wet season is here expect daily updates on local rainfall.
2058. StormWx
Orlando was drenched yesterday, with .09 inches reported at the airport. :o)

It does look rainy across the south. late next week according to the CPC outlook.

2059. sar2401
Quoting LargoFl:
way too early but gfs says it goes here,stay alert,could easily change in a week..............................

Good morning, Largo. Did you notice the 252 hour GFS has the low progressing into AL and GA while the 300 hour has what looks like the same low still sitting in the Gulf? Doesn't that seem odd to you?
2060. MAstu
It's gonna be a scorcher here in Boston tomorrow with a high of 53
2061. MahFL
Quoting 2020. StPetersburgFL:


You all must have some really high ocean heat content down there with all that heating. Man if something goes over those waters this season things will get crazy .


If the shear is low. if not, forget about it !
BULLETIN
HURRICANE AMANDA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014
200 AM PDT TUE MAY 27 2014

...AMANDA RESTRENGTHENS UNEXPECTEDLY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 112.2W
ABOUT 620 MI...995 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE AMANDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST. AMANDA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST BY TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AMANDA IS
A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND
SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO RESUME SOON AND THEN CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND AMANDA SHOULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

2063. MahFL
Quoting 2044. StormTrackerScott:

Latest GFS crushes FL with lots of rain as it has Tropical Storm sitting off the west coast of FL mid to late next week.



That's not "off the coast" it's 100's of miles away in the middle of the GOM.
Good Morning. Tornado warning on the Texas coast just North of Galviston at the moment pushing towards the coast and a nice bowing segment headed towards Galviston County.
Quoting 2061. MahFL:



If the shear is low. if not, forget about it !

By the time it does happen it will be low enough

Quoting 2063. MahFL:


That's not "off the coast" it's 100's of miles away in the middle of the GOM.

Ok here it is few hours later
And btw it makes landfall in Florida in the end anyway

2067. StormWx
Quoting MahFL:

That's not "off the coast" it's 100's of miles away in the middle of the GOM.


But but, its crushing the GOM with rain. Not to mention, SST barely would support a TC.

Quoting 2067. StormWx:



But but, its crushing the GOM with rain. Not to mention, SST barely would support a TC.



That's why GFS weakens it when it nears the coast and surrounding waters
2069. hydrus
Quoting 2069. hydrus:



That's a lotta rain
2071. sar2401
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. Tornado warning on the Texas coast just North of Galviston at the moment pushing towards the coast and a nice bowing segment headed towards Galviston County.

Holy cow. Kind of early in the morning for tornadoes. Have there been storms all night there?
Quoting 2058. StormWx:

Orlando was drenched yesterday, with .09 inches reported at the airport. :o)

It does look rainy across the south. late next week according to the CPC outlook.


CPC is unreliable. I only go with the STS.
2073. LargoFl
Quoting 2070. wunderkidcayman:


That's a lotta rain
yes lets see if it verifies in a week..been real dry by me,can use some
2074. LargoFl
Quoting 2068. wunderkidcayman:


That's why GFS weakens it when it nears the coast and surrounding waters
water temps nearer the gulf coast arent very warm at the moment but close to florida they are in the 80's
2075. MahFL
Quoting 2065. wunderkidcayman:


By the time it does happen it will be low enough




Not if El Nino kicks in.
2076. sar2401
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:

So, no sign of that Caribbean low yet then. Actually, not much sign of any clouds yet.
2077. FOREX
Quoting 2074. LargoFl:

water temps nearer the gulf coast arent very warm at the moment but close to florida they are in the 80's


As of yesterday the water temp at Panama City beach was 76.
2078. LargoFl
normal tracks for June storms............................................ ...................
2079. LargoFl
2080. hydrus
Quoting 2070. wunderkidcayman:


That's a lotta rain
Yep..Notice the white and grey around Western Cuba..This may end up being a strong system. The water there is warmer than usual.
2081. sar2401
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Ok here it is few hours later
And btw it makes landfall in Florida in the end anyway


WKC, your map shows precipitable water, not actual rainfall amounts. It's hard enough to know what PW values today will lead to in terms of rainfall let alone 252 hours out. If you want to show the models runs, it would seem reasonable to just place a low where it shows it to be and leave the rest of the forecast until we have an actual low to deal with.
Quoting 2076. sar2401:


So, no sign of that Caribbean low yet then. Actually, not much sign of any clouds yet.

Duh it is not expected to form just yet but more closer to a couple of days
2083. LargoFl
stay alert and safe Texas............................................. ...................
Quoting 2071. sar2401:


Holy cow. Kind of early in the morning for tornadoes. Have there been storms all night there?
Don't know about the past 12 hours but it is a little strange to see one this early in the morning; this line is starting to weaken now so maybe it was an isolated one. Notice below that it spun up in the only region with a mid-level jet in all of conus with the exception of the Pacific Northwest..........Impressive.



Quoting 2076. sar2401:


So, no sign of that Caribbean low yet then. Actually, not much sign of any clouds yet.

And another thing you do notice that the satellite there is old look at time stamp 19:00-23:00 26 May 2014

Yeah there is still not much there now but it's just a tiny bit more than what that one shows

As I said #2082
2086. Torito

2087. Torito
2088. Torito


Quoting 2086. Torito:

Regeneration forecasted too now..



No it's not
That post tropical point is the last forecast point Amanda just stalls and loops around look at the time stamps on the forecast point you will see it
Or read the discussion
The GFS just loves to take east-weighted tropical cyclones and develop them into separate systems along a front. It did this with Andrea and Debby.

2091. Torito
Quoting 2089. wunderkidcayman:

No it's not
That post tropical point is the last forecast point Amanda just stalls and loops around look at the time stamps on the forecast point you will see it
Or read the discussion


Now I see, strangest track in a while from the NHC I have seen...
Quoting 2069. hydrus:


We don't need anymore heavy rains.It looks like we'll already have a good amount of rain before that storm shoots up the coast.Then when it adds more rain we'll really be in hurtsville

CWG
MattRogers
8:02 AM EDT
And honestly, you're concerned about not getting enough rain in the wettest year-to-date of the 2000s so far?
2093. Torito
GEM on board with the system that the GFS is depicting in the GOM.



2094. Torito
81 hours out.

Amanda= Naked swirl.

Amanda look worse
Eye gone
Convective tops shrinking
In fact the whole convective blob is shrinking

2096. Torito
Something trying to spin up to the south east as well?.. Maybe...

78 hours out.

Quoting 2093. Torito:

GEM on board with the system that the GFS is depicting in the GOM.





GEM has been on board for a good while now
But big difference with GEM is that it takes it into either Mexico or Texas
Unlike GFS which takes it to Florida

Quoting 2094. Torito:

81 hours out.

Amanda= Naked swirl.



It might even be that before 81hrs
2098. Torito
Quoting 2095. wunderkidcayman:
Amanda look worse
Eye gone
Convective tops shrinking
In fact the whole convective blob is shrinking



Gfdl predicting that this is going to happen rather quickly.. look at the difference between now and 6 hours later.



This is not normal!!!!!!!




Our official start to Winter is only in 5 days.
Amanda is definitely on the way out. This is a few hours old now and it was already looking a little rough-



Quite a way to start the season though, a huge ACE producing near Cat 5. Likely the first of many to come in what should be a very active East Pacific season.
Quoting 2096. Torito:

Something trying to spin up to the south east as well?.. Maybe...

78 hours out.



Nah
2102. sar2401
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

And another thing you do notice that the satellite there is old look at time stamp 19:00-23:00 26 May 2014

Yeah there is still not much there now but it's just a tiny bit more than what that one shows

As I said #2082

That's UTZ, so it's about 14 hours old. Do you believe there has been a marked change since then? If so, do you have a satellite photo that shows that?

According to your interpretation of the GFS, this low is going to be there between tomorrow and Friday, correct (28-30)? Do you believe this low will spring forth fully formed by then? Wouldn't you expect to see some clouds first, even some thunderstorms, especially in the tropics, from an incipient low?
Quoting Torito:




Did Amanda get to Cat 4 or Cat 5?
I have been away sick.
Quoting 2100. MAweatherboy1:

Amanda is definitely on the way out. This is a few hours old now and it was already looking a little rough-



Quite a way to start the season though, a huge ACE producing near Cat 5. Likely the first of many to come in what should be a very active East Pacific season.

Yep
2105. Torito
Quoting 2103. AussieStorm:


Did Amanda get to Cat 4 or Cat 5?
I have been away sick.


Borderline cat 5, up for debate, I guess.

Approximate peak strength: 155mph

2106. sar2401
Quoting Torito:
Something trying to spin up to the south east as well?.. Maybe...

78 hours out.


I think that's the remnant low that used to be Amanda.
Quoting Torito:


Borderline cat 5, up for debate, I guess.

Approximate peak strength: 155mph



WOW she sure looks pretty. I guess we'll have to wait for the post-season reanalysis to find out.
2108. sar2401
Quoting AussieStorm:


Did Amanda get to Cat 4 or Cat 5?
I have been away sick.

Sorry to hear you've been sick, Aussie. Amanda made a short run for cat 5 but missed it by about 5 knots. Blew up in two days from an invest to a solid cat 4. Pretty impressive. Looks like El Nino is underway for you regardless of if it's been declared yet.
Quoting 2103. AussieStorm:



Did Amanda get to Cat 4 or Cat 5?
I have been away sick.



peak at 155mph
Quoting sar2401:

I think that's the remnant low that used to be Amanda.


I think this is what Torito meant.

2111. Torito
Quoting 2110. AussieStorm:


I think this is what Torito meant.



Yeah, I meant that. :]
2112. MahFL
Quoting 2076. sar2401:


So, no sign of that Caribbean low yet then. Actually, not much sign of any clouds yet.


Why would there be a sign, it has not formed yet.
2113. sar2401
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Duh it is not expected to form just yet but more closer to a couple of days

No, between tomorrow and Friday with Thursday being the midpoint. That's what you've been posting for several days. My point is I'd expect to see something that resembled some cloud and rain by now.
1st big fire of the season up here in this area and they are haveing too put up with very dry conditions for this early in the season this is going too be one heck of a fir season over here

Link
2115. sar2401
Quoting AussieStorm:


I think this is what Torito meant.


Ah, I see now. Too many lows to keep track off. As to what it might or might not be, I guess we'll see, but lows that try to follow the track of a major hurricane often don't do well.
Quoting sar2401:

Sorry to hear you've been sick, Aussie. Amanda made a short run for cat 5 but missed it by about 5 knots. Blew up in two days from an invest to a solid cat 4. Pretty impressive. Looks like El Nino is underway for you regardless of if it's been declared yet.


Yeah, I think you're right about El Nino. Especially when you read news stories like this. Link

"In the millennium drought we might have had periods where we received half our average rainfall, (but) at the moment we have no rain contributing to our soil profile."

(The Millennium drought started in 1995 and continued Australia wide until late 2009)
2117. sar2401
Quoting MahFL:


Why would there be a sign, it has not formed yet.

See #2102 for my reasons.
Quoting 2102. sar2401:


That's UTZ, so it's about 14 hours old. Do you believe there has been a marked change since then? If so, do you have a satellite photo that shows that?

According to your interpretation of the GFS, this low is going to be there between tomorrow and Friday, correct (28-30)? Do you believe this low will spring forth fully formed by then? Wouldn't you expect to see some clouds first, even some thunderstorms, especially in the tropics, from an incipient low?

Edited

I already answered that question in the same comment that you just quoted

More of a disturbance than a low for early part then Low for the latter part
There might be a surface rotation but not a fully formed low starting up around late 28th to midday 29th /- 6-9hrs
The low would form although may not be fully formed around late 29th to late 30th/early 31st /- 6-9hrs

Currently there is some decent vort in the SW Caribbean also there appears to be some slight rotation in the low level cloud field in the area the incoming Tropical wave will enhance this and the second tropical wave will spark the plug to create that low as NHC stated

The clouds will most certainly increase as the day goes on and for the next couple of days

Quoting 2103. AussieStorm:



Did Amanda get to Cat 4 or Cat 5?
I have been away sick.

Cat 4 almost very very very close to becoming a Cat 5
The last few runs of the GFS have been a little more aggressive with a potent monsoonal system developing out of the Southwest Caribbean and bringing it northward up into the Gulf of Mexico 7 days from now.
The system looks to be in a very similar predicament to what Tropical Storm Andrea had last season.
The GFS brings an anticyclone along with the low until it reaches the Yucatan channel and the Subtropical Jet. Once the anticyclone interacts with the Subtropical Jet, the anticyclone begins to lose it's alignment with the system and strong shear begins to impact the system. If the system were to survive the subtropical jet, traverse the Gulf of Mexico and hit the Gulf coast, whatever is left of it would be very disorganized as it will begin to interact with a trough of low pressure over the southeast as it makes landfall.



Only time will tell, but the likelihood of a tropical cyclone forming in the Atlantic Basin is on the Increase. I would keep a watchful eye on this region over the next seven to ten days as the situation develops further.
2120. ricderr
beautiful weekend here in the borderland.......88 was the high yesterday with only a breeze....took the kids to our local amusement park......gonna see mid nineties and slowly rising through the end of the week.....gonna have to wait and see if we might feel a little of amandas presence...and then next week.....still early...but it might be heatwave time........not made up heatwave...but the real thing....4 days are forecast to be over a 100
Quoting 2119. TylerStanfield:

The last few runs of the GFS have been a little more aggressive with a potent monsoonal system developing out of the Southwest Caribbean and bringing it northward up into the Gulf of Mexico 7 days from now.
The system looks to be in a very similar predicament to what Tropical Storm Andrea had last season.
The GFS brings an anticyclone along with the low until it reaches the Yucatan channel and the Subtropical Jet. Once the anticyclone interacts with the Subtropical Jet, the anticyclone begins to lose it's alignment with the system and strong shear begins to impact the system. If the system were to survive the subtropical jet, traverse the Gulf of Mexico and hit the Gulf coast, whatever is left of it would be very disorganized as it will begin to interact with a trough of low pressure over the southeast as it makes landfall.



Only time will tell, but the likelihood of a tropical cyclone forming in the Atlantic Basin is on the Increase. I would keep a watchful eye on this region over the next seven to ten days as the situation develops further.

No doubts
2122. Patrap


Carbon Dioxide Levels Topped 400 PPM Throughout Northern Hemisphere In April, WMO Says

Reuters

Posted: 05/26/2014 12:08 pm EDT


By Tom Miles

GENEVA, May 26 (Reuters) - Carbon dioxide levels throughout the northern hemisphere hit 400 parts per million (ppm) for the first time in human history in April, an ominous threshold for climate change, the World Meteorological Organization said on Monday.

The 400 ppm level in the atmosphere, up 40 percent since wide use of fossil fuels began with the Industrial Revolution, is rapidly spreading southwards. First recorded in 2012 in the Arctic, it has since become the norm for the Arctic spring.

The WMO expects the global annual average carbon dioxide concentration to be above 400 ppm in 2015 or 2016. Rising concentrations of the heat-trapping gas raise risks of more heatwaves, droughts and rising sea levels.

"Time is running out," WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud said in a statement.

"This should serve as yet another wake-up call about the constantly rising levels of greenhouse gases which are driving climate change. If we are to preserve our planet for future generations, we need urgent action to curb new emissions of these heat-trapping gases."

Almost 200 governments have agreed to work out a deal by the end of 2015 to slow climate change as part of efforts to limit the average temperature increase to two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial times.

Temperatures have already risen about 0.8C (1.4F).

In April, the U.N.'s panel of climate experts said that greenhouse gas concentrations, led by carbon dioxide, would have to be kept below 450 ppm to give a good chance of achieving the 2C goal.

The level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is seasonal, since plants absorb more in the summer months, causing a peak in the spring. The northern hemisphere, with more human-related sources of the gas, has a more pronounced seasonal cycle.

Carbon dioxide remains in the atmosphere for hundreds of years. It is emitted by fossil-fueled vehicles and coal-fired factories and power plants as well as by natural activities such as breathing.

During the last 800,000 years, the level of atmospheric carbon dioxide fluctuated between 180 ppm and 280 ppm, and has probably not been above 400 ppm for millions of years, scientists say.

With the widespread burning of coal and oil during the Industrial Revolution, the concentration of carbon dioxide rose to about 290 ppm by the end of the 19th century.

That accelerated last century, with levels between 370 and 380 ppm by the year 2000. An animated graph that shows the history of atmospheric carbon dioxide is online at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/history.h tml. (Reporting by Tom Miles, editing by Alister Doyle)
Moisture already starting to build in the SW Caribbean

Look there is not much going on right now but give it time and stuff will start happening
2126. Patrap
"Stuff" ?
art you guys for geting some in right now the Caribbean is closed for any thing too pop up with this kind of wind shear all so the Caribbean has that EL nino look two it

2128. sar2401
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Edited

I already answered that question in the same comment that you just quoted

More of a disturbance than a low for early part then Low for the latter part
There might be a surface rotation but not a fully formed low starting up around late 28th to midday 29th /- 6-9hrs
The low would form although may not be fully formed around late 29th to late 30th/early 31st /- 6-9hrs

Currently there is some decent vort in the SW Caribbean also there appears to be some slight rotation in the low level cloud field in the area the incoming Tropical wave will enhance this and the second tropical wave will spark the plug to create that low as NHC stated

The clouds will most certainly increase as the day goes on and for the next couple of days

OK, so here's the very latest infrared picture of the Caribbean. Can you point out to me exactly where this surface rotation/not fully formed low is going to be in in 24 hours? Where exactly is this rotation in this existing lower level cloud field you speak of?

OTOH, take a look at the Mexican coast on the BOC. There appears to be some potential there of a low emerging from the coast into the BOC and interacting with the tail end of that trough over Texas.

Whoops, forgot the image...

2129. Patrap
Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion


000
AXNT20 KNHC 271100
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N32W TO 01N33W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS LARGELY LOW-AMPLITUDE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE ITCZ AXIS. WEAK 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT AND TRACES OF LOW-
LEVEL VORTICITY AT 850 MB ARE NOTED ON GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITH WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IS LESS SCATTERED THAN
OBSERVED 3 TO 6 HOURS...AND IS PRESENT WITHIN 60-75 NM OF THE
WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE IS LIKELY TO BECOME FURTHER SUPPRESSED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD UNDER THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF ATLC HIGH PRESSURE TO ITS N.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N55W SSW TO INLAND THE COAST OF
GUYANA AT 06N56W. THE WAVE IS ALSO MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. FIRST
MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBTLE CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD BETWEEN 53W-59W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM W OF THE
WAVE FROM 07N TO 09N. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE S OF 07N E
OF THE WAVE TO 52W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N71W S TO INLAND VENEZUELA MOVING W
AT ABOUT 16 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A
PATCH OF DEEP MOISTURE TRAILING THE WAVE TO NEAR 66W. 700 MB
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE AREA OF DEEP
MOISTURE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
12N16W TO 09N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 09N21W TO 04N30W WHERE IT ENDS BRIEFLY. IT RESUMES
AT 02N34W TO EQUATOR AT 40W...AND TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR 01S49W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 02N-07N
BETWEEN 25W-29W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
JUST N OF THE EQUATOR TO 04N ELSEWHERE W OF 34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLC HIGH ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF PORTIONS IS THE MAIN SYNOPTIC
FEATURE OVER THE AREA. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY RIDGING ALSO IN
THE UPPER LEVELS WITH AN AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG 93W/94W. AT THE
SURFACE...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY AND E-SE
FLOW OF 10-15 KT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE FAR WESTERN GULF WHERE A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN TEXAS IS INDUCING SE 15-20
KT WINDS THERE. A JET STREAM BRANCH CROSSING THE NW GULF IS
AIDING IN THE ADVECTION OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF SECTIONS. ISOLATED STRONG TSTM
CLUSTERS EARLIER NOTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST AND OVER
NE MEXICO HAVE JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER THE FAR NW WATERS MOVING E. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS OR SO...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN GULF AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT APPROACHES THE TEXAS COAST
AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS ARE FAIR WITH JUST
SMALL POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LOW CLOUDS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING TO THE NW UNDER THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND VENEZUELA AS DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER TROPICAL WAVES.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE SEA W
OF 78W. NW TO N STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE OVER THIS PORTION
OF THE SEA. ASSOCIATED MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS KEEPING SKIES
GENERALLY CLOUD FREE THERE WITH ONLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS MOVING
WESTWARD IN THE TRADES WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. TO THE E
OF THE RIDGE...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A RATHER SHARP AXIS
IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO STRETCH FROM THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE SW TO 14N75W AND TO ACROSS NW COLOMBIA. A NE TO SW JET
STREAM BRANCH TO THE E OF THE TROUGH IS TRANSPORTING DEEP
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS MOISTURE. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART
OF THE SEA...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND MOST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL WAVE PASSING
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS BECOMES ENTRAINED INTO THE SW
FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER TROUGH.

TRADE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
CARIBBEAN...WHILE TRADES OF 10-15 KT ARE PRESENT ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS HISPANIOLA
DUE TO PERSISTENT E-SE WINDS ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION...AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT. A SMALL POCKET OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAS RECENTLY FORMED JUST W OF HAITI...AND OVER
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AIDED BY MAINLY A MID/UPPER TROUGH IN THAT
VICINITY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
DIMINISH AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER E. THE TROUGH SHOULD AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER SOME AREAS OF
THE INTERIOR PORTION THROUGH WED...BUT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS
DRY AIR ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH BEGINS TO FILTER IN OVER
THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1024 MB HIGH IS AT 32N62W WITH A RIDGE WESTWARD TO A 1021 MB
HIGH OVER SE GEORGIA. A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY E AND
WEAKENING EXTENDS FROM 32N51W SW TO 29N55W...WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY TO 26N62W TO 27N66W WHERE IT IS DISSIPATING TO
26N74W. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N57W W TO
NEAR 32N69W...THEN SW TO A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT
28N73W...AND SW TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. FROM THERE IT EXTENDS
FURTHER SW WELL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS FEATURE
IS SUPPORTING THE FRONT WHILE ALSO ENHANCING LIFT ALONG AND NEAR
ITS WESTERN SEGMENT. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE QUITE ACTIVE ALONG AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE FRONT BETWEEN
67W AND 72W. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...OR SHORTLY AFTERWARDS.

A 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC NEAR 34N32W WITH A RIDGE
SW TO NEAR 28N49W. IT IS BRINGING FAIR WEATHER OVER THAT PART OF
THE ATLC. ONLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING
WSW ARE NOTED OVER THAT PORTION OF THE ATLC. A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST
OF MOROCCO NEAR 31N10W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC BETWEEN 40W AND 60W WITH ITS MEAN CENTER AT 14N46W. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 18N E OF 35W WITH
DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT IN THAT AREA KEEPING A CAP ON MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION OVER THAT AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
AGUIRRE
2130. ricderr
"Stuff" ?

pat.....hope this graphic answers your question



2131. sar2401
Quoting TylerStanfield:
The last few runs of the GFS have been a little more aggressive with a potent monsoonal system developing out of the Southwest Caribbean and bringing it northward up into the Gulf of Mexico 7 days from now.
The system looks to be in a very similar predicament to what Tropical Storm Andrea had last season.
The GFS brings an anticyclone along with the low until it reaches the Yucatan channel and the Subtropical Jet. Once the anticyclone interacts with the Subtropical Jet, the anticyclone begins to lose it's alignment with the system and strong shear begins to impact the system. If the system were to survive the subtropical jet, traverse the Gulf of Mexico and hit the Gulf coast, whatever is left of it would be very disorganized as it will begin to interact with a trough of low pressure over the southeast as it makes landfall.



Only time will tell, but the likelihood of a tropical cyclone forming in the Atlantic Basin is on the Increase. I would keep a watchful eye on this region over the next seven to ten days as the situation develops further.

Good analysis. As usual, the GFS is having trouble with the location of the low at 200+ hours. The simulated IR brightness pictures don't seem to match up well with a low that's supposed to still be south of the Panhandle/AL coast even later in the period. I would take a nice disorganized low pressure trough next week sometime. I'm just not very confident it's going to happen.
some stuff
2133. Patrap
Lotsa GOOD stuff here for da "Season"

Hurricane Preparation 2014

2134. sar2401
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Moisture already starting to build in the SW Caribbean


It appears that the PW values in the SW Caribbean except directly along the coast, where there are almost always high PW values, has been decreasing. The area with increasing PW values is actually the Gulf of Mexico.
2135. ricderr

some stuff


CONUS got her shields on full
2136. LargoFl
clipped from south fla nws discussion........................................ ......
MODELS THEN DIVERGE QUITE DRAMATICALLY BY NEXT WEEK AS THE GFS
DEPICTS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND
PUSHING NORTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND
KEEPS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WELL SOUTH WITH UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
SEE TEXT, SEE TEXT EVERYWHERE

2138. sar2401
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
some stuff

Fair bit of stuff out there too. Did you finish your power washing? I still have another couple of hours ahead of me on the siding and I'll be done. I'm so sore I can hardly move after 8 hours yesterday.
2139. Patrap



National Weather Service New Orleans la
809 am CDT Tuesday may 27 2014

Update...
..sounding discussion...

No problems with the flight this morning. The sounding shows precipitable water
values are holding steady around 1.3 inches as a upper low and
rain in West Texas move towards the area. A very shallow layer of
increased moisture was noted in the lower 200 to 300 feet of the
column which has led to some patchy light fog across the area this
morning. That said...all locations are above 4 miles visibility now.
A warm nose was also noted around 800 mb with another saturated layer
around 20k feet. Winds are out of the south in the lower levels...
allowing moisture from the Gulf to stream into the area. Winds are
out of the west aloft.

98/so

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 527 am CDT Tuesday may 27 2014/

Synopsis...

After a nearly two week period of dry weather...a storm system
will bring showers and thunderstorms back in the forecast starting
today. A few very isolated showers have already occurred during
the overnight hours. Water vapor imagery shows an upper low moving
slowly west from the Texas Panhandle region towards the Red River
valley of far North Texas...and this low is fairly stacked down to
the low levels where a 1011 mb surface low is analyzed. A
subtropical jet extends from northern Mexico across south Texas
into the central Gulf Coast region where the upper flow is
diffluent.
2140. sar2401
Quoting LargoFl:
clipped from south fla nws discussion........................................ ......
MODELS THEN DIVERGE QUITE DRAMATICALLY BY NEXT WEEK AS THE GFS
DEPICTS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND
PUSHING NORTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND
KEEPS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WELL SOUTH WITH UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

What? The low is going to develop over the Yucatan, not the SW Caribbean? The Euro is not onboard with the Caribbean system? I guess those amateurs down in Miami just don't have this system nailed yet.
2141. Patrap
Note the clearing opening between NOLA and the Squall Line.

That is going to Heat up and destabilize the atmosphere ahead of the energy moving East.

2142. sar2401
Quoting ricderr:
beautiful weekend here in the borderland.......88 was the high yesterday with only a breeze....took the kids to our local amusement park......gonna see mid nineties and slowly rising through the end of the week.....gonna have to wait and see if we might feel a little of amandas presence...and then next week.....still early...but it might be heatwave time........not made up heatwave...but the real thing....4 days are forecast to be over a 100

Meh, it's always over 100 in El Paso. It only gets real bad when it doesn't get below 100 at midnight. :-)
Quoting 2128. sar2401:


OK, so here's the very latest infrared picture of the Caribbean. Can you point out to me exactly where this surface rotation/not fully formed low is going to be in in 24 hours? Where exactly is this rotation in this existing lower level cloud field you speak of?

OTOH, take a look at the Mexican coast on the BOC. There appears to be some potential there of a low emerging from the coast into the BOC and interacting with the tail end of that trough over Texas.

Whoops, forgot the image...



Current rotation is very slight like I said
It around 10-12N 75-80W stronger with the W and SW flow weaker with the rest

I suspect the rotation would form the low further WNW of current area and it might be more that 24hrs maybe 36hrs

Quoting 2118. wunderkidcayman:


Edited

I already answered that question in the same comment that you just quoted

More of a disturbance than a low for early part then Low for the latter part
There might be a surface rotation but not a fully formed low starting up around late 28th to midday 29th /- 6-9hrs
The low would form although may not be fully formed around late 29th to late 30th/early 31st /- 6-9hrs

Currently there is some decent vort in the SW Caribbean also there appears to be some slight rotation in the low level cloud field in the area the incoming Tropical wave will enhance this and the second tropical wave will spark the plug to create that low as NHC stated

The clouds will most certainly increase as the day goes on and for the next couple of days


Cat 4 almost very very very close to becoming a Cat 5

Yeah sorry date slightly out of place
Rotation for the 29th maybe early 30th
Low for late 30th maybe early 31st

Look when stating dates for the model updates I ain't gonna give exact dates but rather a range dates and give an average date to give or take a day because you can't really hit the nail on the head when dealing with models sometimes

Quoting 2130. ricderr:

"Stuff" ?

pat.....hope this graphic answers your question





You probably still do right lol

I didn't mean stuff like that
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 2118. wunderkidcayman:


Edited

I already answered that question in the same comment that you just quoted

More of a disturbance than a low for early part then Low for the latter part
There might be a surface rotation but not a fully formed low starting up around late 28th to midday 29th /- 6-9hrs
The low would form although may not be fully formed around late 29th to late 30th/early 31st /- 6-9hrs

Currently there is some decent vort in the SW Caribbean also there appears to be some slight rotation in the low level cloud field in the area the incoming Tropical wave will enhance this and the second tropical wave will spark the plug to create that low as NHC stated

The clouds will most certainly increase as the day goes on and for the next couple of days


Cat 4 almost very very very close to becoming a Cat 5


While there is always a possibility of something forming over the couple of weeks (some model support and climatology), I really don't see a low starting to form in the Western Caribbean by later tomorrow. There isn't any clouds down there.
2146. Patrap


CARIBBEAN

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND VENEZUELA AS DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER TROPICAL WAVES.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE SEA W
OF 78W. NW TO N STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE OVER THIS PORTION
OF THE SEA. ASSOCIATED MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS KEEPING SKIES
GENERALLY CLOUD FREE THERE WITH ONLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS MOVING
WESTWARD IN THE TRADES WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. TO THE E
OF THE RIDGE...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A RATHER SHARP AXIS
IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO STRETCH FROM THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE SW TO 14N75W AND TO ACROSS NW COLOMBIA. A NE TO SW JET
STREAM BRANCH TO THE E OF THE TROUGH IS TRANSPORTING DEEP
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS MOISTURE. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART
OF THE SEA...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND MOST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL WAVE PASSING
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS BECOMES ENTRAINED INTO THE SW
FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER TROUGH.
Quoting 2136. LargoFl:

clipped from south fla nws discussion........................................ ......
MODELS THEN DIVERGE QUITE DRAMATICALLY BY NEXT WEEK AS THE GFS
DEPICTS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND
PUSHING NORTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND
KEEPS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WELL SOUTH WITH UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.



Well ain't that something

Miami discussion says W Caribbean


12Z sfc chart are out tropical wave getting closer to SW Caribbean
Quoting 2131. sar2401:


Good analysis. As usual, the GFS is having trouble with the location of the low at 200+ hours. The simulated IR brightness pictures don't seem to match up well with a low that's supposed to still be south of the Panhandle/AL coast even later in the period. I would take a nice disorganized low pressure trough next week sometime. I'm just not very confident it's going to happen.

The system will likely get whacked by the Subtropical Jet as soon as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico, which is why it appears that the system is further east on the Simulated IR.
252 Hours Out:


These images show this very well. The upper-level ridge, that was previously over the system in the Northwest Caribbean, becomes unaligned with the low which enhances the westerly wind shear over the system and causes It to become lopsided. It definitely reminds of Tropical Storm Andrea.
2150. sar2401
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


Well ain't that something

Miami discussion says W Caribbean



Where exactly does that discussion mention the west Caribbean?