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April 2014 Tied for Earth's Warmest April on Record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:21 PM GMT on May 20, 2014

April 2014 tied with April 2010 as Earth's warmest April since records began in 1880, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) today, making April the first month since November 2013 to set a global monthly temperature record. NASA rated April 2014 as the 2nd warmest April on record; global land temperatures were the 3rd warmest on record, as were global ocean temperatures. The year-to-date January - April period has been the 6th warmest on record for the globe. Global satellite-measured temperatures in April 2013 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 11th or 7th warmest in the 36-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively. Northern Hemisphere snow cover during April was the 6th lowest in the 48-year record. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of April 2014 in his April 2014 Global Weather Extremes Summary.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for April 2014, the warmest April for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Much of central Siberia observed temperatures more than 9°F (5°C) above the 1981-2010 average. This region, along with parts of eastern Australia and scattered regions in every major ocean basin, were record warm. Many nations in Europe experienced a top-ten warmest April, including Spain (2nd), Germany (4th), United Kingdom (4th), Denmark (4th), Norway (7th), and Austria (10th.) Parts of southern and eastern Canada, the northern U.S., and southern Kazakhstan were cooler than average. No land areas were record cold. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .



Three billion-dollar weather disasters in April 2014
Three billion-dollar weather-related disasters hit the Earth during April 2014, according to the April 2014 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield:


Disaster 1. The Western U.S. drought of 2014 now has damages estimated at $4 billion. Most of these losses are in California, where the California Farm Water Coalition has cited agricultural damages of $3.6 billion. In this photo, we see one of the key water supply reservoirs for Central California, Lake Oroville, on January 20, 2014. Thanks to an unusually intense ridge of high pressure over Western North America, California endured its driest November - January period on record this past winter. Image credit: California Department of Water Resources.


Disaster 2. The U.S. tornado outbreak of April 27 - May 1 killed 39 and caused at least $2 billion in damage. Eleven tornadoes rated EF-3 or higher touched down, including two EF-4 tornadoes. in this photo we see tornado damage in Tupelo, Mississippi, from an EF-3 tornado that hit on April 28, 2014, killing one person. (J. Robert Senseman)


Disaster 3. Visible satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Ita taken at 04 UTC April 11, 2014. At the time, Ita was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph sustained winds. Ita ravaged agriculture in Queensland, Australia, resulting in $1 billion in damage. Image credit: NASA.

An El Niño Watch continues
April 2014 featured neutral El Niño conditions in the equatorial Eastern Pacific, but NOAA has issued an El Niño Watch for the summer and fall of 2014, giving a greater than 65% chance that an El Niño event will occur by the summer. I made a detailed post on El Niño on May 12.

Arctic sea ice falls to 5th lowest April extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during April was 5th lowest in the 36-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The winter maximum extent of Arctic sea ice came on March 21, and was the 5th lowest such peak on record. Temperatures over most of the Arctic Ocean were 1 - 3°C (2 - 5°F) above average during April.

I'll have a new post on Thursday by 1pm EDT, when NOAA's new Atlantic hurricane season forecast will be available.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. MahFL
Quoting 994. StormTrackerScott:

Heat Wave then the Rainy Season...


Mid 90's is not a heat wave for FL.
1002. spbloom
Go Bulls!
Quoting MahFL:


The ISS is not another satellite.
The ISS is a satellite, of course (as is the moon, for that matter).
Quoting 998. KoritheMan:



From what I understand, GFS long-range developments are usually the model attempting to respond to a favorable long-range pattern.

Doesn't mean the storms will materialize, of course.

In this case I would agree it can't be completely ignored. I would still favor E-Pac development over Atlantic development, as the CMC/ECMWF continue to show that, but usually the GFS isn't quite this consistent on longer range storms. And it has support from over half its ensembles. 6z run is south Florida bound.
1005. Gearsts
For CaribBoy:
SOME WEAKENING OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION APPEARS LIKELY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS WRN CARIB UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD LEADING TO
MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS BUT IT APPEARS AIR MASS OF SAHARAN ORIGIN
WILL NOT ALLOW ANY SIG MOISTENING FOR ANYTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY.
OVERALL...THE PATTERN LOOKS AWFUL DRY THE NEXT TWO WEEKS BUT IS
CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING EL NINO CONDITIONS IN THE EQUATORIAL
PACIFIC.
1007. hydrus
Quoting 1003. Neapolitan:

The ISS is a satellite, of course (as is the moon, for that matter).
Is not...the moon is made of cheese and everything we see moves around it....ISS made of tinker toys and is sessile. ..thought you knew
Summer rain pattern is about to begin and it might start Sunday according to the GFS.

Quoting 993. LargoFl:

Islander you be careful down there..gfs isnt giving up on this storm..................................



This scenario could possibly happen early in the hurricane season!

During El Nino years or slow seasons, we definitely had storms form very early in the season. Hurricane Danny formed in the Gulf of Mexico during July 1997, and then we did not have many storms for the rest of the Atlantic hurricane season - thanks to a powerful El Nino 1997-98! "Danny" formed from a low pressure that formed along a frontal-type of boundary in the Gulf.

This GFS model depicts a more tropical system in the W. Carrib. Sea, so that appears more of a tropical formation, instead of a subtropical or frontal-boundary formation of a storm! It is almost a reminder of Hurricane Alberto 1982! Alberto rapidly formed during the first week of hurricane season - June 1982, in the southeast Gulf of Mexico, during an El Nino year. It pounded W. Cuba and the Florida keys with extremely heavy rain, and gale force winds, before fizzling out.

We will see what climatology has to offer this hurricane season. If we keep on getting fronts move down into the Gulf, and weather move in from the west and north - lasting most of the summer, it will definitely be a reminder of the summer of 1997. Very interesting if something happens!
1010. hydrus
Hey guys taking further analysis of what GFS showing the system can be tracked from near 200hrs mark so it is indeed kinda out of the 300hrs dreamland plus GFS has consistency in both development of the system as well as (now) timing of the system (sorta)
Not only that but I was kinda shocked but yeah CMC/GEM has jumped on the W Caribbean development bandwagon
Not only that but NAVGEM is also hinting development
Quoting 1008. StormTrackerScott:

Summer rain pattern is about to begin and it might start Sunday according to the GFS.




we have started TStorms rolling here now every 6 to 12 hrs

last one was 2 am this am dropped 1/2 inch getting muggy

summer comes forth
1013. hydrus
Quoting 1009. Stormwatch247:




This scenario could possibly happen early in the hurricane season!

During El Nino years or slow seasons, we definitely had storms form very early in the season. Hurricane Danny formed in the Gulf of Mexico during July 1997, and then we did not have many storms for the rest of the Atlantic hurricane season - thanks to a powerful El Nino 1997-98! "Danny" formed from a low pressure that formed along a frontal-type of boundary in the Gulf.

This GFS model depicts a more tropical system in the W. Carrib. Sea, so that appears more of a tropical formation, instead of a subtropical or frontal-boundary formation of a storm! It is almost a reminder of Hurricane Alberto 1982! Alberto rapidly formed during the first week of hurricane season - June 1982, in the southeast Gulf of Mexico, during an El Nino year. It pounded W. Cuba and the Florida keys with extremely heavy rain, and gale force winds, before fizzling out.

We will see what climatology has to offer this hurricane season. If we keep on getting fronts move down into the Gulf, and weather move in from the west and north - lasting most of the summer, it will definitely be a reminder of the summer of 1997. Very interesting if something happens!
Alberto had us under hurricane warnings..We moved our boat up the Caloosahatchie, and dud for us...We were in the Keys for the No Name Storm, and that was rather potent..


Alberto...



No Name..

The 1982 Florida subtropical storm, officially known as Subtropical Storm One, was the only subtropical cyclone of the inactive 1982 Atlantic hurricane season. The storm originated from two different systems around the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea on June 16. The systems merged into trough while a circulation began to form off the coast of Florida on June 18. The depression made landfall in Florida and strengthened into a storm over land. The storm entered the Atlantic Ocean and headed to the northeast, becoming extratropical on June 20 near Newfoundland. The storm was the only system of 1982 to affect the eastern half of the United States, and it caused three fatalities ...Wiki
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU MAY 22 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms continue to increase near an area of low
pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development of this system during the next few days while
it moves northwestward or west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Berg
Earth Model
depiction as of 2 pm this afternoon

surface temps

vis alert high arctic

ALERT ATCF MIL 92X XXX 140522060000
2014052206
16.6 92.3
20.0 91.6
80
17.0 92.1
220730
1405220721
1
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTIO21 PGTW 220730
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210721Z MAY 14//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 210730)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
080 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.6N 92.3E TO 20.0N 91.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 220600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.0N 92.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 230730Z.
//
9214051906 136N 914E 15
9214051912 136N 912E 15
9214051918 138N 910E 15
9214052000 141N 910E 15
9214052006 144N 910E 20
9214052012 147N 911E 25
9214052018 150N 912E 25
9214052100 153N 914E 25
9214052106 156N 916E 30
9214052112 158N 918E 30
9214052118 161N 920E 30
9214052200 165N 921E 30
9214052206 170N 921E 30
NNNN

1018. StormWx
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Summer rain pattern is about to begin and it might start Sunday according to the GFS.



The rainy pattern will likely start in June. Sorry bubba.

1019. StormWx
Though 94/95 is hot, I dont think any records are going to fall in the Orlando area through this weekend. It wont get to 98 degrees. Just drink a cold beer and everything will be alright :o)

Friday Sunny and hot, with a high near 95. West wind 5 to 10 mph.
Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 72. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm after midnight.
Saturday Sunny and hot, with a high near 95. West wind around 5 mph becoming north northwest in the afternoon.
Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 73. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light after midnight.
Sunday A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 92. East wind 5 to 10 mph.

Link
1020. StormWx
Quoting MahFL:


Mid 90's is not a heat wave for FL.


Thank you lol, a heat wave is several days in the upper 90s and records breaking in FL. Records arent going to be broke and the heat is only here for a day. Plus a 20% chance of rain doesnt mean the rainy season has started lol. You're in NE FL right? Closer to the beach looks better than inland as temps will be around 90.
Quoting 1020. StormWx:



Thank you lol, a heat wave is several days in the upper 90s and records breaking in FL. Records arent going to be broke and the heat is only here for a day. Plus a 20% chance of rain doesnt mean the rainy season has started lol. You're in NE FL right? Closer to the beach looks better than inland as temps will be around 90.
I always figured it was 100 degrees and lasts longer than 3 days or more to be official heat wave that includes 100 with humidex or 100 degrees actual air temps
1022. StormWx
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
419 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

FRI-SAT...H100-H70 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVR APALACHICOLA REMAINS
TRAPPED BETWEEN THE NRN AND SRN BRANCHES OF THE H30-H20 JET STREAM
AND WILL REMAIN THE MAIN WX FEATURE FOR CENTRAL FL INTO THE WEEKEND.
WEAK SFC RIDGE TO THE S WILL GENERATE A STEADY WRLY BREEZE THRU THE
BNDRY LYR...WHILE THE ANTICYCLONE GENERATES A LIGHT BUT DEEP N/NWRLY
BREEZE ALOFT...KEEPING LCL AIRMASS STABLE AND SUPPRESSED. INDEED...
BOTH GFS/ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN A TIGHT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
IN THE H85-H70 LYR WELL INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY WX PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE.


LIMITED MOISTURE ADVECTION AND A SUPPRESSED AIRMASS WILL ALLOW NEAR
FULL SUN EACH DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE M90S ACRS THE
INTERIOR EACH AFTN. SEABREEZE FORMATION WILL KEEP THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL REGIONS IN THE L90S...BUT THE W/NWRLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LIMIT
INLAND PENETRATION TO THE I95 CORRIDOR. MIN TEMPS IN THE U60S/L70S
AREAWIDE.

SUN-WED...
A WEAK FRONTAL TROF WILL SAG ITS WAY INTO N FL ON SUN AS THE
H100-H70 ANTICYCLONE IS REINFORCED BY A CONTINENTAL RIDGE CURRENTLY
OVER THE NRN PLAINS. GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE AN H85-H70 SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION WILL OCCUR...ALLOWING FOR STRONGER VERTICAL MOTION AND
IMPROVED MOISTURE ADVECTION.

GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SMALL POPS AS A NARROW BAND OF MID LVL VORT
ASSOCD WITH THE FRONTAL TROF SLIDES ACRS N FL...THEN GRADUALLY
INCREASES POPS TO 30-40PCT BY MIDWEEK IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE
TROF DVLPG ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. ECMWF REMAINS DRIER AS IT KEEPS
THE H100-H70 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FURTHER E...PLACING CENTRAL FL
UNDER STRONGER SUBSIDENCE WITH POPS AOB 10PCT THRU MON...BLO 20PCT
THRU MIDWEEK.


WILL GO WITH SLGT CHC POPS THRU MON AS SHALLOW MOISTURE POOLING
WITHIN THE TROF AXIS MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FUEL FOR MESOSCALE
BNDRY COLLISIONS TO SPARK A FEW TSRAS. POPS INCREASING TO 30-40PCT
INTO MID WEEK AS BOTH MID RANGE MODELS DISSOLVE THE MID LVL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING LAPSE RATES TO
STEEPEN

SERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN MAX TEMPS TO MORE SEASONABLE M/U80S ALONG
THE COAST...U80S/L90S INTERIOR. MIN TEMPS M/U60S INTERIOR...
U60S/L70S ALONG THE COAST.
Quoting 1008. StormTrackerScott:
Summer rain pattern is about to begin and it might start Sunday according to the GFS.



Hi Scott-
That weather map looks fantastic for Oklahoma and North Texas!
1024. StormWx
I really hate to BUST the El Nino wishcasters bubble but we have a significant drop in the Nino 3.4 and Nino 3 regions. Im not sure if anyone paid attention to my forecast earlier this week but i said these regions could fall below the 0.5C threshold later this week, and looky here, it has. I dont go looking for applause, i just wanted to point this out. See Scott, im not always wrong lol and you are not always right! I still think we get an El Nino in late summer, in the August timeframe.



Quoting 1001. MahFL:



Mid 90's is not a heat wave for FL.


It's Florida and it gets hot every year - mid 90's. If it didn't then that would be the story. If we're to have a heat wave then why aren't the NWS offices forecasting several days of record breaking temperatures. That is a heat wave......
1026. MahFL
Quoting 1020. StormWx:

You're in NE FL right? Closer to the beach looks better than inland as temps will be around 90.


Orange Park, near Doctors Lake, but I don't live on the water lol.
1027. ncstorm
Quoting 1024. StormWx:

I really hate to BUST the El Nino wishcasters bubble but we have a significant drop in the Nino 3.4 and Nino 3 regions. Im not sure if anyone paid attention to my forecast earlier this week but i said these regions could fall below the 0.5C threshold later this week, and looky here, it has. I dont go looking for applause, i just wanted to point this out. See Scott, im not always wrong lol and you are not always right! I still think we get an El Nino in late summer, in the August timeframe.






as I said..I'll just wait and see..and most importantly be prepare..models..smodels..
1028. MahFL
I've told people a million billion times "don't exaggerate"...
1029. pottery
Quoting StormWx:
I really hate to BUST the El Nino wishcasters bubble but we have a significant drop in the Nino 3.4 and Nino 3 regions. Im not sure if anyone paid attention to my forecast earlier this week but i said these regions could fall below the 0.5C threshold later this week, and looky here, it has. I dont go looking for applause, i just wanted to point this out. See Scott, im not always wrong lol and you are not always right! I still think we get an El Nino in late summer, in the August timeframe.





The longer it takes, the better I like it.
We really need a wet wet-season down here.
Quoting 1024. StormWx:

I really hate to BUST the El Nino wishcasters bubble but we have a significant drop in the Nino 3.4 and Nino 3 regions. Im not sure if anyone paid attention to my forecast earlier this week but i said these regions could fall below the 0.5C threshold later this week, and looky here, it has. I dont go looking for applause, i just wanted to point this out. See Scott, im not always wrong lol and you are not always right! I still think we get an El Nino in late summer, in the August timeframe.





I was gonna say the same thing but I said I'd wait a day or two let it fall further them mention it but since you did already
1031. ncstorm
I do have to say this is indeed a very good looking tropical wave for this time of year
Quoting 1031. ncstorm:



You were thinking same thing right
1034. ncstorm
00z CMC Last two frames..



Drought in USA on Thursday, 22 May, 2014 at 03:05 (03:05 AM) UTC.
Description
Drought conditions are continuing to worsen in Kansas despite recent rain, prompting Gov. Sam Brownback to declare half the state in a drought emergency. All 105 counties are now under some type of drought status. Brownback issued an updated declaration Wednesday putting 56 counties in the most serious emergency category. Twenty-six have been placed under warning status, and 23 in a watch status. The emergency designation makes counties eligible for use of water from certain lakes. Brownback says in a news release Kansans need to know that no matter where they live in the state, the drought is not over. He says some areas have been in drought for almost five years. The lack of precipitation is depleting soil moisture, drawing down reservoir levels and slowing stream flows.
Extreme Weather in Dominican Republic on Thursday, 22 May, 2014 at 03:13 (03:13 AM) UTC.
Description
The Emergency Operations Center (COE) on Wednesday said the downpours in several provinces during the last several days have displaced 5,560 people and affected nearly 400 homes, with flash flood warnings issued for 16 provinces. From Maria Trinidad Sanchez in the northeast to Elias Pina in the west are under flash flood warnings, COE said, and that swelled rivers have damaged homes in northern La Vega and Espaillat provinces. The first response agency said the displaced people weren’t taken to shelters but advised residents in high-risk areas such as near rivers and streams to take precautions.
Hailstorm in India on Thursday, 22 May, 2014 at 03:16 (03:16 AM) UTC.
Description
Heavy downpour accompanied by hailstorm threw life out of gear in many parts of the City, mainly South Bangalore, on Wednesday evening. Several trees and electric poles were uprooted, leading to disruption in power supply and traffic jams and chaos on roads. According to the Bruhat Bangalore Mahanagara Palike officials, over 30 trees were uprooted in Hanumantha Nagar, Chamarajpet, Girinagar, Basappa Circle, Banashankari, Jagajivanram Nagar, Basaveshwaranagar, Thyagarajanagar, Nagarbhavi and Vijayanagar. In Hanumantha Nagar, more than five trees were uprooted. At Minerva Circle, a car was damaged and its occupants suffered minor injuries as a huge tree fell on the vehicle. At Vidyapeetha Circle, a tree fell on a vehicle but no casualty was reported. An electric pole collapsed at Narayanswamy Circle at Hanumantha Nagar, resulting in traffic jam. Palike workers cleared the fallen trees from the roads. But in Bangalore South division, there were complaints from residents that Palike was slow in clearing the trees. Traffic police had a tough time in regulating traffic till the roads were cleared. Vijayalakshmi, a resident of Vidyapeetha area, said there was no power in the locality for over two hours from 6:30 pm. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) office said they received information about the hailstorms and thundershowers from the public. According to IMD Director (Bangalore) B Puttanna, hailstorms and thundershowers are common during the pre-monsoon season, but are rare in the month of May. However, heavy pre-monsoon showers are normally reported in May. He pointed out that there is a depression in east central Bay of Bengal. It is now moving in northerly direction and under this influence, most parts of Karnataka are experiencing heavy rainfall which will continue for the next two days.
1038. sar2401
Quoting rayduray2013:

No hope? Kind sir, I beg to differ.

You might want to edit your post before the kids get up. :-)
Quoting 1023. rmbjoe1954:


Hi Scott-
That weather map looks fantastic for Oklahoma and North Texas!


Yeah I am hoping this is the year we finally don't have to worry about a Death Ridge setting up over Texas and baking them with 100 degree temps daily.

NWS is saying 30 to 40% pops begin mid next week so it looks like our transition to the wet season is about to ensue.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
419 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

SUN-WED...
A WEAK FRONTAL TROF WILL SAG ITS WAY INTO N FL ON SUN AS THE
H100-H70 ANTICYCLONE IS REINFORCED BY A CONTINENTAL RIDGE CURRENTLY
OVER THE NRN PLAINS. GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE AN H85-H70 SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION WILL OCCUR...ALLOWING FOR STRONGER VERTICAL MOTION AND
IMPROVED MOISTURE ADVECTION.

GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SMALL POPS AS A NARROW BAND OF MID LVL VORT
ASSOCD WITH THE FRONTAL TROF SLIDES ACRS N FL...THEN GRADUALLY
INCREASES POPS TO 30-40PCT BY MIDWEEK IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE
TROF DVLPG ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. ECMWF REMAINS DRIER AS IT KEEPS
THE H100-H70 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FURTHER E...PLACING CENTRAL FL
UNDER STRONGER SUBSIDENCE WITH POPS AOB 10PCT THRU MON...BLO 20PCT
THRU MIDWEEK.

WILL GO WITH SLGT CHC POPS THRU MON AS SHALLOW MOISTURE POOLING
WITHIN THE TROF AXIS MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FUEL FOR MESOSCALE
BNDRY COLLISIONS TO SPARK A FEW TSRAS. POPS INCREASING TO 30-40PCT
INTO MID WEEK AS BOTH MID RANGE MODELS DISSOLVE THE MID LVL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING LAPSE RATES TO
STEEPEN

SERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN MAX TEMPS TO MORE SEASONABLE M/U80S ALONG
THE COAST...U80S/L90S INTERIOR. MIN TEMPS M/U60S INTERIOR...
U60S/L70S ALONG THE COAST.
Quoting sar2401:

You might want to edit your post before the kids get up. :-)


You called?
Flash Flood in USA on Thursday, 22 May, 2014 at 11:51 (11:51 AM) UTC.
Description
Thunderstorms brought torrential rain late Wednesday night to this eastern Lake County village, causing a small creek running through town to quickly swarm its banks, flooding homes and businesses. Police Chief Dawn Shannon said the village did not have to evacuate anyone from their homes, but there were several residences and businesses with flooded basements and parking lots. Residents said heavy rain started falling at about 9:30 p.m. and by 10:30 p.m. the police department started getting reports of flooding. Radar data shows about 2 to 3 inches of rain fell in a short time in the Madison area, said National Weather Service meteorologist Frank Kieltyka. He said there also were reports of hail in the area. It was part of a system of storms that moved through Lake, Ashtabula and Trumbull counties. A tornado warning was issued for parts of Ashtabula and Trumbull counties. Kieltyka said the Weather Service had not received confirmation that a funnel cloud was spotted. Residents in Madison were stunned by how hard it rained and the swift rise of the creek. The water surrounded Quigley's Squarerigger Saloon on North Lake Street, even though it's about 50 yards from the banks of the creek. Linda McQuinley, who owns Quigley's with her husband, Jeff McQuinley, said the water carried off a large Dumpster behind the saloon. It also flooded the basement with about a foot of water. She said it caused damage to freezers and food. Water surrounded several homes on Safford Street. Linda Whipple, 58, said she had about 8 inches of water in her home of 30 years. She said had just had the furnace replaced and hopes it isn't damaged.

Quoting 1038. sar2401:


You might want to edit your post before the kids get up. :-)
Bu..bu....but, it is the kids who are driving the popularity numbers. I'm just the astonished observer.

Quoting 1040. Astrometeor:



You called?
More of a dog whistle than a call.

Sort of like this:


A 58 year old record could be tied in Orlando Saturday and this could be the hottest temps in Orlando since 2011. Pretty impressive!

Also the latest update on the latest Kelvin Wave readings shows some shrinking of the warm pool.

Strange El-Nino to say the least
1045. barbamz
Hi folks. Developing storms over France are going to cross the border to Germany. Especially lightning in its northwestern corner seems to be right on the track to hit my place later, if they survive ;-)



Violent storms leave two dead in France
The Local (France), published: 22 May 2014 11:48 GMT 02:00
Storms that swept across a swathe of the country on Wednesday left two dead and tens of thousands without electricity in the south west and centre of the country. ...
1046. StormWx
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Strange El-Nino to say the least


FYI, we are not in an El Nino. We are in Neutral conditions. The 3.4 and 3 regions cant stay above 0.5C. Here is the criteria for an El Nino:

Link

El Niño (La Niña) is a phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific Ocean characterized by a five consecutive 3-month running mean of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region that is above (below) the threshold of +0.5°C (-0.5°C). This standard of measure is known as the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI).
Quoting 1040. Astrometeor:



You called?
I thought you didn't want to be classified as a kid. :-)
1048. vis0
REPLY TO (am on a slow connection so auto reply not a choice)
850. Barefootontherocks
12:39 AM GMT on May 22, 2014
(though my reply will be marked as not weather related, some of the clues below is how the ml-d -i state- influences weather as written of on my crappy blog.

THIS IS MY 2 CENTS (NOT FACTUAL...yet) from my 1970s papers i wrote as a kid.
i know it will read as crazy.

Looong reply first(its shorter?)::
Its not the closeness to an electrical line or electrical plant since the electricity is within shielded conduits.

Once the electricity is shielded then it becomes a formula where one has to draw lines of angles and when those angles go through the body at certain chakra/7 sealed books/glandular openings (be they/glandular areas "open/receptive to interference" via hereditary(family tree),karmic(spiritual tree) or reactive (pollutants you take willingly or unwillingly) then the opportunities rise for diseases/aliments. Why i tried to open people eyes as to Galacsics it uses the planets "ethereal" energy (Galacsics)thus no secondary effects as electrical Hum.
Why not just tell how Galacsics works?
ONE BIG PROBLEM, its very dangerous (atomic energy via sub0) and only a responsible society can use it, i think humanity is in its reckless teenage years (just look at how we/society still argues in an uncivil manner of pollutants) hence i only give clues to this breakthrough as just giving it to anyone raises the opportunity of its misuse.

This opportunity of developing aliments/diseases to the electrical Hum also happens where carcinogenic chemicals stored underground as these chemical are bound to release minute but potent fumes or forms of ether and if the mentioned angles pass over these vapours then into your homes one can be introduced to develop illnesses depending on ones family or spiritual tree.

Study birds in LARGE enclosed areas where they can fly. Introduce a structure with loose amperage ONLY IN THE ENCLOSED BRICK STRUCTURE they can't touch. Observe how their senses are affected in flight as they avoid the structure at a further point and AS INDIVIDUALS or only pairs/couples as if far sighted being their natural senses loose quality if too close.
Turn off the HUM/loose amperage and birds will fly closer AND IN GROUPS to the structure even to slightly scrap it with wings as then their senses are so good they can get closer to the structure. why good hearted people have birds land on them as their "aura" is not chaotic, less complex animals/creatures sense this.
This has to be done AWAY from a city as the city's energy HUM will still affect animals try the experiment in a jungle.


shrt? rply?:: (from 1970s pgs, i called Sciencious, science with a conscience/consciousness)
Measure angles 180(spherical window arachnoid shield i.e. Gray matter-pia matter)/90/45/22.5/11.25(spherical window opening as in complex planet to complex brain)from the electrical/energy output buildings/plants/power stations to ones home/then body being both the home & the body are "large" grounded enclosed areas that have a circuit circulating within them. In the home its the electrical currents circulating in the body via the blood/magnetic field in part defended by the hearts thump thump beat. These angles carry chaos from electricity i.e. its Hum and if just right (or wrong) can introduce to the animal body diseases & ailments.

Cell phones do a similar job but at minuscule levels thus the brain "works" at similar minuscule levels and when one is using a cell phone with certain higher sounds AROUND THEM THEN the brain can have chaotic energies introduced to the brain. Why certain studies show no connection as to cellphones & brain damage & other do.

Examples: why in the 1970s i wrote NYC to have police firing ranges equipped with certain noise abating walls and that the police have a noise shield in where to place arms through so the guns loud bang is not introduced to the brain otherwise diseases will spike due to that loud interaction of sound to brain AT the above mentioned angles if one uses firing ranges w/o having a brain rest period (a brain reset period i call when the loud sounds are not used for ~3-4 days to a 2 week period, depends on an individual brain "wiring". Since police practice constantly, hence i sent them the warning.
2)Why ONE of the reasons mental "illnesses" rose after introducing lasers to wars/battles as lasers & loud sounds (bombs/screaming) . The lasers/electrical devices scramble the persons memory via the loud sounds or sudden sharp sounds in a way to flip how they store their memories, specially if in constant use w/o the ~4 day brain/sound rest which is almost impossible in combat.
Instead of keeping the memories of war out of quick referencing when under duress this laser / sound restructuring causes memories that are undesirable (to say the least) but part of life experiences to stay close to the surface and become easily recalled during stress. As i've written to the military (1980s) & NFL (1990s on concussions) one has to build helmets in a manner to have the area of the helmet NOT exceed the thickness of the helmet by a fold of 5 or 6 (1/4 '' neans helmet surface no more than in total ~7''. How can one build such a size? Think of building the helmet is sections NOT AS A WHOLE** make those sections fit the requirements i just gave, CLUE: energy wants to surround EVERYTHING within a complex planet/universe but if built "correctly" this energy is sent to ground after one rotation, today's helmets keep that energy rotating around the skull till eventually towards the brain till it enters the body (being the brain/body is magnetically charged TILL the energy exits through the feet (get ready for some of my nutty connecting) hence in ancient scriptures the highest/unconditional love is sitting in the right hemisphere of the brain,pia matter (scholarly mother...alma ~matter, your scholarly worthiness) is surrounding the brain to protect it, literally & figuratively then the innocent yet curious child (Son/Sun) energy is on the left shoulder & the chaotic energy (Lucifer, NOT RELIGIOUSLY , scientifically) is under you feet's sole. (don't ask, this folding theory will lead to figuring how flying orbs (see clues on Mexico's flying orbs left on others youtube me as wxretro. i've left enough clues in several languages for it to spark some kids imagination, lets hope the kid turns out to be a good kid, not kidding grothar/sar2401 (2 of several longtime favs)...BTW wxu mail is stuck & i no longer use it wxu never responded. In 2 years if the 5 i sent the umbrella idea to (includes 2 youtube private links), do not use it i'll send it to accuweather, i was hoping funds of umbrella sales go to PORTLIGHT)



**(of course glue or process to hold pieces together as if a one piece helmet have to withstand the same forces as the present one piece helmet.)

OK i'm ready for another banning,

HEY look its the DR. Masters (Thank you NOAA & Dr. Masters for taking the time to prepare & present information that helps other make educated decisions to better our & the future/children's lives) Hurricane predictions blog LETS GO!!!...after the ban i'll try to catch up after all i'm on 52k (1990s State of the art) why not DSL? saving $$ for my health & family)
Quoting 1015. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Earth Model
depiction as of 2 pm this afternoon

surface temps




nice image. is there a link for future reference?
Quoting 1049. HurrikanEB:



nice image. is there a link for future reference?


Link
Quoting 1045. barbamz:
Developing storms over France are going to cross the border to Germany. Especially lightning in its northwestern corner seems to be right on the track to hit my place later, if they survive ;-)



Violent storms leave two dead in France
The Local (France), published: 22 May 2014 11:48 GMT 02:00
Storms that swept across a swathe of the country on Wednesday left two dead and tens of thousands without electricity in the south west and centre of the country. ...


Very stormy by you lately. Is it uncommon to see that much lightning across this part of Europe?

Quoting 1041. Skyepony:

Flash Flood in USA on Thursday, 22 May, 2014 at 11:51 (11:51 AM) UTC.
Description
Thunderstorms brought torrential rain late Wednesday night to this eastern Lake County village,

Who you? The doyen of disaster? :)

Gosh, how about some real excitement in the mix?  Have we discussed the planet eating stars? Or how about this....


Putting the super in supernova.

***
Talk about over-indulging at the all-you-can-eat buffet, oy vey!


1053. StormWx
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Link


Awesome, i like it.
Many GFS ensembles are latching onto a system in the NW Caribbean in 10 to 12 days and sending whatever this becomes across FL. Could be monsoonal or it could be a full blown tropical system. Well see.
1056. barbamz
Quoting 1051. StormTrackerScott:



Very stormy by you lately. Is it uncommon to see that much lightning across this part of Europe?


Hi Scott. No, it's not uncommon in summer. But it's the first wave of severe thunderstorm events this year. So German weather freaks are sitting on the edge of their chairs, glued to their screens, or ready to take of for storm chasing, lol.
1057. FBMinFL
Quoting 1044. StormTrackerScott:

A 58 year old record could be tied in Orlando Saturday and this could be the hottest temps in Orlando since 2011. Pretty impressive!

Also the latest update on the latest Kelvin Wave readings shows some shrinking of the warm pool.

Strange El-Nino to say the least



Kelvin must have run into some cold water.
1058. Torito
92e looking much better today.

Quoting 1056. barbamz:


Hi Scott. No, it's not uncommon in summer. But it's the first wave of severe thunderstorm events this year. So German weather freaks are sitting on the edge of their chairs, glued to their screens, or ready to take of for storm chasing, lol.


I guess I always thought of this part of Europe as cool and rainy. Never thought you guys get thunderstorms like we do in the States.
Goodmorning everyone.

1061. MahFL
Quoting 1032. wunderkidcayman:

I do have to say this is indeed a very good looking tropical wave for this time of year..


Nope, it's dieing.
Quoting 1060. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Goodmorning everyone.



Whenever you get time look at the ensembles on Weatherbell. Looks very interesting and what is interesting to me is that many more ensembles are latching onto something now.

1063. MahFL
Quoting 1060. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Goodmorning everyone.



Er, whats that circular thing near the FL east coast ?
1064. Torito
Still no closed center, although it is starting now..

NOW:


6 HOURS AGO:
1065. Torito
ANVI on the board now, predicting it to just eke out TD status... or maybe a low end TS..



MODEL RUNS:

1066. Torito
1067. barbamz
Quoting 1059. StormTrackerScott:



I guess I always thought of this part of Europe as cool and rainy. Never thought you guys get thunderstorms like we do in the States.


Heatwaves in the 30ies (Celsius) = 90ies (F) happen every year, Scott, increasingly.
I give up on this el Nino
Experimental FIM-9 also showing the potential for a tropical system in the Western Caribbean at the end of the run.

1070. StormWx
Quoting Tazmanian:
I give up on this el Nino


Dont give up Taz, the professionals give it a 65% chance by fall. It wont happen overnight like some on here want it too. Just keep observing :o)
1071. sar2401
Quoting EstherD:
SAR --
Thanks for the detailed critique at comment #892 and the kind words at comment #939.

I think you're still giving too much weight to the few but powerful radio transmissions that permeate both the rural and urban environments, and conversely too little weight to the more prevalent but weaker RF noise sources that dominate the urban environment, especially college campuses these days.

Our lab in Boston was located in close proximity to several large radio transmitters on the taller buildings, e.g. the Prudential Center. Those CW signals were relatively easy to screen out and thus rarely caused a problem for us in our experiments.

What was always a major problem for us was the bursty RF hash generated when the diodes in the power supplies of our electronics switched on and off at the peaks of each cycle of the 60Hz AC. Worse was the wide-band RF hash generated by the switching power supplies operating in the audio band at 10-40 kHz. So even after switchers became commodity items, we tended to prefer devices with linear regulators whenever possible.

If I might be allowed to speculate a bit... Given the way that signaling works in the nervous system, I'd guess that the CW signals from the big radio transmitters can have only a limited effect on the robin's magnetic sensor cells, because those RF transmissions are regular and periodic, and the nervous system is well-designedhas evolved mechanisms to inhibit predictable, but unwanted, responses. It seems more likely that the functionality of the cells would be adversely affected by bursty, random, low-level RFI, because that might act to raise the background noise in the magnetic sensor system by increasing the sensory neuron's spontaneous discharge rate, and that cannot be so easily compensated by the down-stream signal proccesing neurons.

Further experiments will hopefully extend and clarify all of this, and I personally am looking forward to see what develops. (I should live so long! ;)

VERY LATE EDIT: Can't believe I wrote "is well-designed". Now I KNOW I'm getting senile. ;(

You're welcome. You know a lot about electronics considering you're not a ham. You should get your license. :-0

Like you, I'm not about to cough up $32 to the Nature Leviathan to read the study, so we only have the summary to use. The summary seemed to give quite a lot of weight to AM broadcast band signals, so this my reasoning. How much is really in the study remains to be seen. Near field EMI has been a problem for well over 100 years, almost since the first radio was invented actually. I have gotten rid of all the dimmers in my home, all the CFL's, as many switching power supplies as I can , and I only use linear regulated power supplies for my ham radios. I also have the misfortune of being located less than 1000' from a tower with not only cell phone antennas but also public safety and commercial VHF/UHF repeaters. One of our ham repeaters is also on the tower, so I can't complain too much. As you might imagine, I've got more money that I care to calculate in low pass, high pass, and notch filters of various types. Switching power supplies have proliferated prodigiously (because they're cheap) over the past 30 years, and they continue to be the source of much RF hash. So I really didn't overlook these weaker near field signals, I just don't know how to place them in context with that study.

I agree that things like a CW signals (even though it's really not continuous) are easier for at least a nervous system like ours to adapt to. A robin's...well, I don't know. I do wonder why these tests weren't conducted with any other night migrating birds. If only robins are affected, that's bad luck for robins. If more than one breed, that might be quite a different story. However, if whatever happened with the robins is not due to stronger signals, that leaves with almost imperceptibly weak near field signals that presumably are able to affect one small part of a robin's brain, even while it's flying several thousand feet in the air. While I find that difficult to believe, I guess it's not impossible. It would have implications for far more than bird brains, if you'll excuse the pun, if this proved to be true. When we can finally get the full text of the study, we can look at these points again and, in the process, drive everyone here nuts. :-)
1072. ricderr
Kelvin must have run into some cold water.


that's not the case....that graph is based on anomalies...and if you do some digging..you can extrapolate and get a good idea of what the actual temperature of the hottest portion of the kelvin wave was when we first started tracking it as it made its way east.....now..you can go to where it's located now....see what the sea surface temperature currently is...and you'll see that the temps are basically the same....it's just that the difference is not as great
1073. Torito
GFS @ 66.

1074. ricderr
I give up on this el Nino



taz.....i know you focus on what's said here on wu....but follow the cpc and their information.....i post their weekly update link every week.....here...we've heard winter...spring...any day now....two weeks...and june 5th....it builds excitement...but it's not based on the science of what is happening...sit back and trust those who do this for a living...it's not near as flamboyant...but the quality of information can't be beat
1075. Torito
NAVGEM 114 hours out.

Quoting Tazmanian:
I give up on this el Nino


How ENSO leads to a cascade of global impacts.


BOM "Tropical Pacific Ocean edges further toward El Niño"


El Niño likely in 2014
Based on the assessment on 20 May 2014, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Tracker status remains at El Niño ALERT level, meaning that there is at least a 70% chance of an El Niño occurring in 2014. Current observations and model guidance indicate an El Niño is likely to develop by spring, with some models indicating a transition to El Niño as early as July.

El Niño conditions generally result in below average winter/spring rainfall over southern and inland eastern Australia, while southern Australia typically experiences warmer days.

Record warmth still brewing in Sydney

Melbourne's 'mildwave' breaks May record for temperatures above 20C

El Niño warning for dairy farmers
1077. ricderr
here taz...here's their update from may 19
Quoting 1070. StormWx:



Dont give up Taz, the professionals give it a 65% chance by fall. It wont happen overnight like some on here want it too. Just keep observing :o)


ok
Quoting 1051. StormTrackerScott:



Very stormy by you lately. Is it uncommon to see that much lightning across this part of Europe?


Quoting 1069. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Experimental FIM-9 also showing the potential for a tropical system in the Western Caribbean at the end of the run.


it will have too move up in time with any future runs to warrant a raised eyebrow alert

lol
1081. sar2401
Quoting ricderr:
Kelvin must have run into some cold water.


that's not the case....that graph is based on anomalies...and if you do some digging..you can extrapolate and get a good idea of what the actual temperature of the hottest portion of the kelvin wave was when we first started tracking it as it made its way east.....now..you can go to where it's located now....see what the sea surface temperature currently is...and you'll see that the temps are basically the same....it's just that the difference is not as great

Quite so. I've tried to stay out of the whole El Nino debate, mainly because I'm just not bright enough to figure most of it out. The anomaly charts will become less and less important in the months ahead. The Pacific heats up- naturally because it's summer (at least in the Norther Hemisphere). Thus, the differential will be getting less, regardless of the progress of El Nino. Predicting El Nino is fiendishly difficult, as we've seen with the last several busts. Since it's getting hot again in Alabama and my lawn will start to die, if it's still green in August, I will declare the El Nino has begun. :-)
Quoting 1076. AussieStorm:



How ENSO leads to a cascade of global impacts.


BOM "Tropical Pacific Ocean edges further toward El Niño"


El Niño likely in 2014
Based on the assessment on 20 May 2014, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Tracker status remains at El Niño ALERT level, meaning that there is at least a 70% chance of an El Niño occurring in 2014. Current observations and model guidance indicate an El Niño is likely to develop by spring, with some models indicating a transition to El Niño as early as July.

El Niño conditions generally result in below average winter/spring rainfall over southern and inland eastern Australia, while southern Australia typically experiences warmer days.

Record warmth still brewing in Sydney

Melbourne's 'mildwave' breaks May record for temperatures above 20C

El Niño warning for dairy farmers



Thanks but you are posting stuff I all ready no
1084. sar2401
Quoting barbamz:


Heatwaves in the 30ies (Celsius) = 90ies (F) happen every year, Scott, increasingly.

I've been to Europe a number of times and lived some pretty warm parts of the States, but part of the two months I spent in Slovenia in 1995 had some of the hottest and most oppressive conditions I've ever been in. There were also some of the most violent and longest lasting non-tropical thunderstorms I've ever seen. The same was true for Austria and southern Germany. And then it started to rain...but that's another story. Still, a lot of people seem to think Europe is kind of a big version of Seattle when nothing could be further from the truth.
1085. sar2401
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Amanda III ready to form...

Quoting 1071. sar2401:
If only robins are affected, that's bad luck for robins. If more than one breed, that might be quite a different story.

This night-migrating robin research reminded me of this report.

9/11 Memorial Lights Trap Thousands of Birds



SNIP:


On the evening of the ninth anniversary of 9/11, the twin columns of light projected as a memorial over the World Trade Center site became a source of mystery.

Illuminated in the beams were thousands of small white objects, sparkling and spiraling, unlike anything seen on other nights. Some viewers wondered if they were scraps of paper or plastic caught in updrafts from the spotlights’ heat. From beneath, it was at times like gazing into a snowstorm. It was hard not to think of souls.

Those unidentified objects have now been identified as birds, pulled from their migratory path and bedazzled by the light in a perfect, poignant storm of avian disorientation....

... Volunteers from New York Audubon identified American Redstarts and Yellow Warblers. Wood Thrushes, Bicknell’s Thrushes, Baltimore Orioles and various species of Tanager may also have been trapped. Recordings of flight calls inside the light columns are now being analyzed at the Cornell Lab of Ornithology....[Continues at website...]

1087. Gearsts
Something is holding back the El nino.
1088. sar2401
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
it will have too move up in time with any future runs to warrant a raised eyebrow alert

lol

I can't imagine why. I just put you on ignore until you get over it. :-) There are times it does get to be a little much, but most of the time it's well appreciated.
1089. ricderr
Quite so. I've tried to stay out of the whole El Nino debate, mainly because I'm just not bright enough to figure most of it out. The anomaly charts will become less and less important in the months ahead. The Pacific heats up- naturally because it's summer (at least in the Norther Hemisphere). Thus, the differential will be getting less, regardless of the progress of El Nino. Predicting El Nino is fiendishly difficult, as we've seen with the last several busts. Since it's getting hot again in Alabama and my lawn will start to die, if it's still green in August, I will declare the El Nino has begun. :-)


i agree sar...except for the part that i believe you're bright enough if you wanted to pursue studying about it...i'm not an expert...and except for the online courses i've taken for free...i've practically no experience....i'm happy to be a rank amateur...but when i do focus on something i go all out....i've compiled two notebooks on the topic and am on my third...not that i can put the information together coherently....but i bet you i'd kick ass if it was a topic on jeopardy
1090. MahFL
Quoting 1084. sar2401:


... longest lasting non-tropical thunderstorms ...


When I was living in the UK we'd sometimes get thunderstorms that lasted for hours and hours, one time a TV transmitter got knocked out on the final episode of a TV series, they had to re-run it as so many people were pissed they had missed it.
Quoting Tazmanian:



Thanks but you are posting stuff I all ready no


You knew about the BOM ENSO Tracker?
Quoting 1091. AussieStorm:



You knew about the BOM ENSO Tracker?



yes
1094. ricderr
it will have too move up in time with any future runs to warrant a raised eyebrow alert

lol


i'll get enthused at the 240 hr time frame if the ECMWF picks it up
Quoting 1081. sar2401:


Quite so. I've tried to stay out of the whole El Nino debate, mainly because I'm just not bright enough to figure most of it out.

sar,

Similarly I can claim little background expertise on ENSO. That said, I did find a lot of great explanations to various aspects of the science at the Australian Bureau of Meteorlogy ENSO Wrap Up Page.

Do note that across the top of the page are various headings such as overview, sea surface, sea sub-surface, etc. Knock yourself out. Indulge yourself, luxuriate in illuminating yourself in this tranquil bath of wisdom and fact. It's a rather readable teaching moment.

If you're anything like me, you'll come away from the experience sensing that, "I'm good enough. I'm smart enough. And doggone it, people like me." and I will know more about ENSO tomorrow! 
NOAA to release the today. quite interesting to see the numbers.
1097. sar2401
Quoting rayduray2013:


This night-migrating robin research reminded me of this report.

9/11 Memorial Lights Trap Thousands of Birds



SNIP:


On the evening of the ninth anniversary of 9/11, the twin columns of light projected as a memorial over the World Trade Center site became a source of mystery.

Illuminated in the beams were thousands of small white objects, sparkling and spiraling, unlike anything seen on other nights. Some viewers wondered if they were scraps of paper or plastic caught in updrafts from the spotlights’ heat. From beneath, it was at times like gazing into a snowstorm. It was hard not to think of souls.

Those unidentified objects have now been identified as birds, pulled from their migratory path and bedazzled by the light in a perfect, poignant storm of avian disorientation....

... Volunteers from New York Audubon identified American Redstarts and Yellow Warblers. Wood Thrushes, Bicknell’s Thrushes, Baltimore Orioles and various species of Tanager may also have been trapped. Recordings of flight calls inside the light columns are now being analyzed at the Cornell Lab of Ornithology....[Continues at website...]


I remember reading about this when it happened (note: no robins) and was reminded that this was not the first time something like this happened. In WWI, the Germans were using huge dirigibles for night bombers over England. The Signal Corps invented extremely powerful arc light searchlights to locate the dirigibles so antiaircraft artillery could have the chance to shoot them down, this being a couple of years before fighter were flown at night. The searchlights were on almost every night when the alerts came in, and every searchlight had a small sector of sky assigned. It was small enough that the lights were almost stationary to the eye. After the first week or so, the searchlight beams became more and more cluttered with some kind of debris, and the English assumed the Germans were dropping something to make the searchlights less effective. I'll bet you've already guessed the answer. Unfortunately for the birds, there was a war on, so no turning on and off the searchlights so the birds could fly away, but, as usual, there was precedent in history that would have predicted 9/11/2010.
1098. Dakster
Quoting 1060. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Goodmorning everyone.




What the... heck is that doing there...
1099. ricderr
Similarly I can claim little background expertise on ENSO. That said, I did find a lot of great explanations to various aspects of the science at the Australian Bureau of Meteorlogy ENSO Wrap Up Page.


ray...i've found their site to be the easiest to garner a ton of information...and easy to understand explanations of what is happening and needs to happen
1100. ricderr
What the... heck is that doing there...


wasting bandwith at this point in time :-)
1101. sar2401
Quoting rayduray2013:
sar,

Similarly I can claim little background expertise on ENSO. That said, I did find a lot of great explanations to various aspects of the science at the Australian Bureau of Meteorlogy ENSO Wrap Up Page.

Do note that across the top of the page are various headings such as overview, sea surface, sea sub-surface, etc. Knock yourself out. Indulge yourself, luxuriate in illuminating yourself in this tranquil bath of wisdom and fact. It's a rather readable teaching moment.

If you're anything like me, you'll come away from the experience sensing that, "I'm good enough. I'm smart enough. And doggone it, people like me." and I will know more about ENSO tomorrow!

The quote thing isn't working right again. You have to be really careful with the new site to make sure you only post outside the quote box or your text gets mixed up in the quote. I've fixed it this time but I'm getting a little testy with the new site...

Anyway, you give me far too much credit. I've used the Australian BOM site for a long time, thanks to the tip from AussieStorm. They have the best updates on El Nino and, because of them, I now know what ENSO and some other acronyms mean. I just have a hard time wrapping my head around these global systems. I understand kind of what they do and what keeps them in motion. I just don't have the time or desire to delve into it deeply. Luckily, some folks here do, and I read the range of opinions and use them to give me an idea where we are, along with the BOM and NOAA. In the meantime, I have to work on those robins. :-)
1102. ricderr
The quote thing isn't working right again. You have to be really careful with the new site to make sure you only post outside the quote box or your text get's mixed up in the quote. I've fixed it this time but I'm getting a little testy with the new site...


the ricderr modified quote system works just find on the new version as well as the old :-)
1103. sar2401
Quoting AussieStorm:


You knew about the BOM ENSO Tracker?

He has a giant pulsating brain, Aussie.
1104. sar2401
Quoting ricderr:
The quote thing isn't working right again. You have to be really careful with the new site to make sure you only post outside the quote box or your text get's mixed up in the quote. I've fixed it this time but I'm getting a little testy with the new site...


the ricderr modified quote system works just find on the new version as well as the old :-)

Yes...let's not get into that again. :-0
1105. Xulonn
Quoting 1041. Skyepony:
Flash Flood in USA - on Thursday, 22 May, 2014 at 11:51 (11:51 AM) UTC - Thunderstorms ..Lake County village
Had to use Google to figure out that this was in Ohio.
Quoting 1045. barbamz:

Hi folks. Developing storms over France are going to cross the border to Germany. Especially lightning in its northwestern corner seems to be right on the track to hit my place later, if they survive ;-)



Violent storms leave two dead in France
The Local (France), published: 22 May 2014 11:48 GMT 02:00
Storms that swept across a swathe of the country on Wednesday left two dead and tens of thousands without electricity in the south west and centre of the country. ...


Just had one of those large storms pass near me in the UK. Very loud thunder and quite a bit of lightning. I was on the outer edge, so didn't get any hail. There were wind gusts of 30-40mph too, based on the UK Radar.
1107. barbamz

Storms in the UK right now.

1108. barbamz
Quoting 1106. Envoirment:



Just had one of those large storms pass near me in the UK. Very loud thunder and quite a bit of lightning. I was on the outer edge, so didn't get any hail. There were wind gusts of 30-40mph too, based on the UK Radar.


Lol, Envoirment, we both hit the send-button nearly at the same time. Stay safe!
Quoting 1099. ricderr:

Similarly I can claim little background expertise on ENSO. That said, I did find a lot of great explanations to various aspects of the science at the Australian Bureau of Meteorlogy ENSO Wrap Up Page.


ray...i've found their site to be the easiest to garner a ton of information...and easy to understand explanations of what is happening and needs to happen
Yah, it's a lovely user-friendly site. I'm reminded, by way of the opposite example, yesterday I attempted to navigate a USGS website to answer a simple question initiated from a comment here. What's the current and historic flow on the St. Vrain River? That was my simple question. By the time I threw the brick through the display I'd gotten completely befuddled by a parameter puzzle the USGS must have set up simply to frustrate anyone but an initiate to their sacred scripts. It was a monstrously useless site. But.... it gets worse.

NY Daily News Headline: Gonzalez: Mayor de Blasio's independent probe into 911 system overhaul can reveal truth behind $1B loss

Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/gonzalez -de-blasio-probe-911-system-reveal-truth-behind-1b -loss-article-1.1800145#ixzz32SFGdeGm


There is just something about government and technology that just is not working in the U.S.A. today. Here in Oregon we lost about $200 Million in Fed-money trying to set up an ACA portal. A complete waste of money on an Oracle Corp. fiasco. Larry Ellison is laughing all the way to the foreign off-shore-tax-haven-taxpayer-heavin' bank.
Talking about lightning, there's bound to be a lot more of it in a warmer world. It creates ozone and nitrous oxide, both of which are potent greenhouse gases, so it's a positive feedback effect. But, it's one you never hear about.
1111. sar2401
Quoting MahFL:


When I was living in the UK we'd sometimes get thunderstorms that lasted for hours and hours, one time a TV transmitter got knocked out on the final episode of a TV series, they had to re-run it as so many people were pissed they had missed it.

I was quite surprised with the duration of the storms as well. We were at the house of my late wife's relatives when one of these storms broke out. We had just found her family after the US branch had been lost to the Slovenian side for almost 100 years. Everyone in this little valley was related to her, as it turned out, so we were having a big party. In Slovenia, that means everyone gets roaring drunk. I had no idea that, once you took the first drink, you had to keep up or it was considered an insult. The storm started at about 7:00 and was still going strong at one in the morning. I desperately wanted to get back to the guest house we were staying at. It was still coming down cats and dogs, along with occasional hail and continuous lighting. When I said I wanted to go back, they said "No problem!" It seemed like a problem to me, since we were all drunk, and the police had checkpoints all over the place trying to catch drunks. I was too drunk and too sick to care, so we piled into three Yugo and bounced across farm fields and through hedgerows with no lights on so the cops wouldn't spot us, guided only by the lightning flashes. I have no idea how we made it but I'm still alive, so somehow we did. That was the last drink other than something non-alcoholic I ever drank around her family again. :-)
Quoting 690. Astrometeor:



Yup. Penn State too. Got accepted to both of them but have chosen to attend neither. OU gave me a really good scholarship offer (President's Scholarship), but in the end the size is still too intimidating.


IF it is a good scholarship, you may want to reconsider. Norman is still "small town" attitude although close to Oklahoma City. Also Meteorology may have small class size after the monster freshman courses in math/science. And you would be in the storms. LOL. (I know a bunch of expat Okies both Red and Orange).
1113. sar2401
Quoting yonzabam:
Talking about lightning, there's bound to be a lot more of it in a warmer world. It creates ozone and nitrous oxide, both of which are potent greenhouse gases, so it's a positive feedback effect. But, it's one you never hear about.

It also creates the only source of natural nitrogen fertilizer, so plants would be in a bad way without it. As far as greenhouse gases, I'm now convinced everything creates greenhouse gases, with the possible exception of my slippers, and I'm suspicious about them, even though they look pretty innocent right now. :-)
1114. ricderr
There is just something about government and technology that just is not working in the U.S.A. today. Here in Oregon we lost about $200 Million in Fed-money trying to set up an ACA portal. A complete waste of money on an Oracle Corp. fiasco. Larry Ellison is laughing all the way to the foreign off-shore-tax-haven-taxpayer-heavin' bank.


i agree to a point.....where in oregon are you?
Quoting 1101. sar2401

Yes, I am mystified by the zombies and poltergeists in charge of my composition window. Sometimes it's fine and I can type below the shaded quote box, but then sometimes I can't get the cursor to move below the quoted (shaded) area in the composition dialogue box. Some day I'll figure it out. Or not. Until then, it's not worth caring much about at my end. I'm not responsible for the WU page, for which I'm grateful. :)
POSS T.C.F.A.
XX/INV/92E
1117. ricderr

POSS T.C.F.A.
XX/INV/92E


it's firing...it's swirling...but it doesn't look closed just yet..........
Quoting 1114. ricderr:

There is just something about government and technology that just is not working in the U.S.A. today. Here in Oregon we lost about $200 Million in Fed-money trying to set up an ACA portal. A complete waste of money on an Oracle Corp. fiasco. Larry Ellison is laughing all the way to the foreign off-shore-tax-haven-taxpayer-heavin' bank.


i agree to a point.....where in oregon are you?


Bend
1119. Grothar
I see from the other entries that the EPAC is getting active.

1120. Patrap
Quoting 811. EstherD:


But, you see, that's precisely the problem. Heretofore, most of the evidence of biological effects of EM fields has been anecdotal. And anecdotal science (or medicine, in this case) is BAD science (or medicine). That's why the robin study is potentially ground-breaking... it looks like the first credible study that seems to show a measurable effect in an animal model context. An effect that can be tested, replicated, extended, etc. (In fairness, there have been other animal model studies that purported to show effects. Mostly they have been discredited in some way. And the robin study may yet end up in the scientific trash bin. Only time will tell.)


Esther, Have you read any of Robert O. Becker's work? Early researcher in EM effects, especially in bone repair.
1122. sar2401
Quoting rayduray2013:
Yah, it's a lovely user-friendly site. I'm reminded, by way of the opposite example, yesterday I attempted to navigate a USGS website to answer a simple question initiated from a comment here. What's the current and historic flow on the St. Vrain River? That was my simple question. By the time I threw the brick through the display I'd gotten completely befuddled by a parameter puzzle the USGS must have set up simply to frustrate anyone but an initiate to their sacred scripts. It was a monstrously useless site. But.... it gets worse.

NY Daily News Headline: Gonzalez: Mayor de Blasio's independent probe into 911 system overhaul can reveal truth behind $1B loss

Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/gonzalez -de-blasio-probe-911-system-reveal-truth-behind-1b -loss-article-1.1800145#ixzz32SFGdeGm


There is just something about government and technology that just is not working in the U.S.A. today. Here in Oregon we lost about $200 Million in Fed-money trying to set up an ACA portal. A complete waste of money on an Oracle Corp. fiasco. Larry Ellison is laughing all the way to the foreign off-shore-tax-haven-taxpayer-heavin' bank.

The entire NYC communications system is a disaster. It was a disaster before 9/11 and it's still a disaster. NYPD fights with FDNY, and they both fight with the Mayor's OES. I did a NIMS training for them almost a year before 9/11 and they fought for the whole three days. It's the only place I've seen where the police fight fires and the firefighters have guns.
Quoting 1113. sar2401:


It also creates the only source of natural nitrogen fertilizer, so plants would be in a bad way without it.


That's not true. Nitrogen fixing and nitrifying bacteria do most of the work.
1124. sar2401
Quoting Grothar:
I see from the other entries that the EPAC is getting active.


It's blobalicious, if I may be permitted to say so.

Good morning, Gro.
1125. Patrap
The " fertilizer" Nitrogen runoff into the GOM from the Miss River creates many a mile of GOM Dead Zones.
1127. sar2401
Quoting Envoirment:


That's not true. Nitrogen fixing and nitrifying bacteria do most of the work.

True, "only" was a probably a bad choice of words, but atmospheric fixation of nitrogen is still an important part of nitrates for plant life.
1128. Dakster
Quoting 1100. ricderr:

What the... heck is that doing there...


wasting bandwith at this point in time :-)


That is a good thing too...
1129. sar2401
Quoting Pipejazz:


Esther, Have you read any of Robert O. Becker's work? Early researcher in EM effects, especially in bone repair.

And amazingly, we still don't have much evidence if electrical stimulation works or how it works. It seems as if ultrasound is becoming the treatment of choice now.
1130. hydrus
Quoting 1120. Patrap:




So what's new, Pat? We've seen this image before. Got it. Agree it's a problem. :)

Some good news for once. The Colorado River has reached the Sea of Cortez for the first time in decades:



Alright, it's a bit contrived, but it's still a good thing. LINK
Quoting 1117. ricderr:


POSS T.C.F.A.
XX/INV/92E


it's firing...it's swirling...but it doesn't look closed just yet..........
that's why its a possible TCFA
once it closes off then we go full trottle
1134. Patrap
Quoting 1131. rayduray2013:



So what's new, Pat? We've seen this image before. Got it. Agree it's a problem. :)

Some good news for once. The Colorado River has reached the Sea of Cortez for the first time in decades:



Alright, it's a bit contrived, but it's still a good thing. LINK
1135. Patrap
Quoting 1120. Patrap:


1136. hydrus
92b


1137. Dakster
Quoting 1133. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

once it closes off then we go full trottle


KEEP - How are things in Canada? Snow finally melt?
1138. Patrap
Billionaire environmentalist to target two Iowa candidates on climate change stances
Jennifer Jacobs, jejacobs@dmreg.com 9:33 a.m. CDT May 22, 2014


Twelve days before the vote, a billionaire environmentalist says his super PAC will target two Iowa political candidates he believes are "deniers" of climate change science: Joni Ernst and Mark Jacobs.

Tom Steyer, an investor who founded NextGen Climate in 2013, wants to bring climate change to the forefront of American politics to "avert climate disaster and preserve American prosperity."

Steyer in a news release this morning announced his PAC's strategy to play in races for governor and U.S. Senate in seven states: Iowa, Colorado, Florida, Michigan, Maine, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania.

The PAC isn't going after Republican Gov. Terry Branstad, but it will target Jacobs and Ernst, who are running to replace Democratic U.S. Sen. Tom Harkin. Ernst and Jacobs are among five Republicans seeking the GOP nomination for the seat; the vote is Tuesday, June 3.

"Iowa's farms and rural communities are feeling the pain in their wallets and on their land due to record floods coming on the heels of a record drought, while State Senator Joni Ernst has 'not seen proven proof ' that climate change 'is entirely man-made' and former energy CEO Mark Jacobs is 'not convinced that man-made causes are causing' climate change," the news release said.

Ernst made the comments in an interview with The Des Moines Register's editorial board. And the Register reported on Jacobs' comments to the Westside Conservative Club in July.

In response, a campaign spokeswoman for Jacobs said he "will fight to protect hardworking Iowans from more failed energy policies that harm the family budget."

NextGen Climate will spend as much as $100 million this election season attacking Republicans in the seven states, all of which are blue and purple ones that Democratic President Barack Obama won in both 2008 and 2012, NBC News reported this morning.

In his written statement, Steyer said, "The debate on climate change is settled: it is here, it is human-caused, and it is already having a devastating impact on our communities." He said he wants to "accelerate the level of political support to address this critical issue before it's too late."

The news release also said: "NextGen Climate will use climate as a wedge issue, both to motivate voter turnout with the rising electorate and to demonstrate that being anti-science will hurt our opponents among persuadable voters. ... NextGen Climate will support candidates with strong stances on climate policy, while also demonstrating that connections between policy positions benefiting fossil fuels and donations from that same industry undermine the credibility of candidates."

Quoting 1122. sar2401:


 I did a NIMS training for them almost a year before 9/11
This would have been the National Incident Management System as conceived by FEMA's James Lee Witt?
1140. sar2401
Quoting rayduray2013:


So what's new, Pat? We've seen this image before. Got it. Agree it's a problem. :)

Some good news for once. The Colorado River has reached the Sea of Cortez for the first time in decades:



Alright, it's a bit contrived, but it's still a good thing. LINK

Yuck! I don't care if the Colorado reaches the Sea of Cortez or not, the delta is one of the nastiest, smelliest places I've ever been. We were sea kayaking and got blown into a little fishing village there for two days until the storm passed. Treeless, bleak, nothing but salt pans...even the fish didn't taste good.
Quoting 1137. Dakster:



KEEP - How are things in Canada? Snow finally melt?
yep warming have had a few TStorms already temps are rising
and at the moment we have towering clouds in the distance

forecast calls for temps to be in low 80's by tus next week with a nice muggy feel to go with it

summer its coming
1142. Patrap



Pope Francis Makes Biblical Case For Addressing Climate Change: ‘If We Destroy Creation, Creation Will Destroy Us’

BY JACK JENKINS MAY 21, 2014 AT 12:46 PM

Pope Francis made the religious case for tackling climate change on Wednesday, calling on his fellow Christians to become “Custodians of Creation” and issuing a dire warning about the potentially catastrophic effects of global climate change.
Speaking to a massive crowd in Rome, the first Argentinian pope delivered a short address in which he argued that respect for the “beauty of nature and the grandeur of the cosmos” is a Christian value, noting that failure to care for the planet risks apocalyptic consequences.
“Safeguard Creation,” he said. “Because if we destroy Creation, Creation will destroy us! Never forget this!”
The pope centered his environmentalist theology around the biblical creation story in the book of Genesis, where God is said to have created the world, declared it “good,” and charged humanity with its care. Francis also made reference to his namesake, Saint Francis of Assisi, who was a famous lover of animals, and appeared to tie the ongoing environmental crisis to economic concerns — namely, instances where a wealthy minority exploits the planet at the expense of the poor.
“Creation is not a property, which we can rule over at will; or, even less, is the property of only a few: Creation is a gift, it is a wonderful gift that God has given us, so that we care for it and we use it for the benefit of all, always with great respect and gratitude,” Francis said.
Francis also said that humanity’s destruction of the planet is a sinful act, likening it to self-idolatry.
“But when we exploit Creation we destroy the sign of God’s love for us, in destroying Creation we are saying to God: ‘I don’t like it! This is not good!’ ‘So what do you like?’ ‘I like myself!’ – Here, this is sin! Do you see?”
The pope’s comments come on the heels of a five-day summit on sustainability convened at the Vatican earlier this month. The summit, entitled “Sustainable Humanity, Sustainable Nature, Our Responsibility,” drew together microbiologists, legal scholars, economists, philosophers, astronomers, and other experts to discuss ways for the Catholic church to address a range issues caused by climate change. In a joint statement published after the close of the conference, participants echoed Francis’ belief that environmental justice and economic justice are inextricably linked.
“Human action which is not respectful of nature becomes a boomerang for human beings that creates inequality and extends what Pope Francis has termed ‘the globalization of indifference’ and the ‘economy of exclusion’ (Evangelii Gaudium), which themselves endanger solidarity with present and future generations,” the statement read.
The pontiff’s catechesis and the Vatican’s summit appear to be part of a renewed effort by the Catholic church to draw attention to environmental issues. Keeping with a long history of Catholic environmentalism (including several pro-environmentalist sermons delivered by Pope Benedict XVI, Francis’ predecessor), Francis addressed climate change in his inaugural mass as pope, and is rumored to be working on a formal encyclical on the environment.
8-13 TS, 3-6 HU, 1-2 MH from NOAA.
NOAA

Based on the current and expected conditions, combined with model forecasts, we estimate a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity during 2014:

8-13 Named Storms
3-6 Hurricanes
1-2 Major Hurricanes
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 40%-100% of the median.

Link
The GFS calls for this storm to form on May 27th.You'll guys have to wait until June 27th then.It'll have the storm stuck at that time for a while...
1146. sar2401
Quoting rayduray2013:

This would have been the National Incident Management System as conceived by FEMA's James Lee Witt?

Yes, but not conceived by nor did Witt have any meaningful input. I don't know what that guy did, actually. It was done by bureaucratic drones in FEMA. It was an outgrowth of the Incident Command System, which functioned quite well until FEMA decided every first response agency needed federal level training if they wanted federal funds. They took a perfectly good system, reversed sentences, jumbled up paragraphs, added things that made no sense, and renamed it NIMS. I still taught ICS but pretended it was NIMS.
1147. ricderr
NOAA anticipates 8-13 tropical storms, 3-6 hurricanes, 1-2 major hurricanes (near or below seasonal averages.)
1149. sar2401
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
NOAA

Based on the current and expected conditions, combined with model forecasts, we estimate a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity during 2014:

8-13 Named Storms
3-6 Hurricanes
1-2 Major Hurricanes
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 40%-100% of the median.

Link

Wow. They really went out on a limb with that one....
1150. StormWx
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
NOAA

Based on the current and expected conditions, combined with model forecasts, we estimate a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity during 2014:

8-13 Named Storms
3-6 Hurricanes
1-2 Major Hurricanes
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 40%-100% of the median.

Link


Cool! So i should forecast the opposite of them and i'll probably get it right :o) Considering last year was thought to be an active season it was opposite, watch this season be above average.

Quoting 1140. sar2401:


Yuck! I don't care if the Colorado reaches the Sea of Cortez or not, the delta is one of the nastiest, smelliest places I've ever been. We were sea kayaking and got blown into a little fishing village there for two days until the storm passed. Treeless, bleak, nothing but salt pans...even the fish didn't taste good.
People say it was a paradise. A century ago.
1153. ricderr
NWS Miami ‏@NWSMiami May 20
#SoFla rainy season outlook released today: http://goo.gl/TRNGnK Late-arriving this year, but strong June tstorms psbl. El Niño a factor?
1154. ricderr
2014 RAINY SEASON OUTLOOK
“Near to Slightly Below Normal” Rainy Season Anticipated
May 20, 2014: Although the rainy season will likely arrive later than normal this year,
the outlook for South Florida’s annual wet season is calling for near to only slightly
below normal rainfall.
The late start to this year’s rainy season is due mostly to the cold front which swept
through South Florida late last week and introduced unseasonably dry air into the
region. This dry air is expected to persist for the next several days, with a better chance
of more persistent, high moisture values returning to the area next week. This
persistence of high moisture and associated showers and thunderstorms is what
typically signals the start of the rainy season.
Despite the late start this year, we still have a ways to go to reach the latest rainy
season start date on record which is June 9, 2011.
Outlook Explanation
The outlook of near to slightly below normal precipitation is based on a combination of
several factors: analogs (past summers with similar atmospheric conditions to what is
expected this summer), long-range models, the official NOAA Climate Prediction Center
outlooks (Figure 1) and trends (observed conditions over the past 10-20 years).
One of the primary influences to this rainy season is the likely development of El Niño
later this summer and fall. The presence of El Niño can influence large-scale weather
patterns which affect summer rainfall across South Florida. Although it’s important to
note that not every El Niño event has the same effects on Florida’s weather, the
tendency from past El Niño events is for near to slightly-below normal summer rainfall
across southern Florida. Long range models and the CPC outlook generally support this
1155. Patrap
My 2014 Numbers




Quoting 1146. sar2401:


Yes, but not conceived by nor did Witt have any meaningful input. I don't know what that guy did, actually. It was done by bureaucratic drones in FEMA. It was an outgrowth of the Incident Command System, which functioned quite well until FEMA decided every first response agency needed federal level training if they wanted federal funds. They took a perfectly good system, reversed sentences, jumbled up paragraphs, added things that made no sense, and renamed it NIMS. I still taught ICS but pretended it was NIMS.
Thanks [EOM]
1157. ricderr
from brian kahn at climatecentral

Don’t get caught up in the El Niñopocalypse just yet. For all the signs an El Niño is on the horizon, it’s still too early to know just how strong this one could be or even if it will form. Scientists from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society issued a forecast on Thursday that shows the odds of El Niño being in place by this fall at 75 percent. While that’s high, it’s by no means a given.

Most models used to generate their forecast also indicate if El Niño does develop, it will be weak-to-moderate in strength. That comes with a caveat, though.

"Forecast are still uncertain, and a strong event cannot be ruled out," IRI wrote in its forecast release.

In other words, don't freak out but don't toss out your El Niño preparedness kit just yet.
Quoting 978. EstherD:


If I could read it for free, I would, but since I cannot, I haven't. If this were a scientific forum, I'd never do that; however, since it isn't, I think I'm on relatively safe ground working from reliable summaries. Yes?


Can you see this? Link
1159. sar2401
Quoting rayduray2013:

People say it was a paradise. A century ago.

Since the Salton Sea is approaching 107 years old, probably more than a century but, from everything I've read, it was a lot nicer than it is now. The Colorado River Delta is probably the best example of a century and a half of water wars you can find. Since it's mostly in Mexico, we really haven't given much of a darn until recently.
1160. sar2401
Quoting Pipejazz:


Can you see this? Link

Not unless we cough up $32. I assume you are seeing it on an academic account. The great unwashed masses have to pay up if they want to learn anything.
1161. Dakster
Quoting 1141. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

yep warming have had a few TStorms already temps are rising
and at the moment we have towering clouds in the distance

forecast calls for temps to be in low 80's by tus next week with a nice muggy feel to go with it

summer its coming


I think you need to buckle up and hold on tight too. Could be a very interesting and hot summer.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Not bad.
1164. sar2401
Phew! At least it won't get to 100 here. It's 84 now and looks like we might hit 91 today. Tomorrow should be our warmest day at 92-93. We should get enough cloud cover over the weekend to hold temperatures below advisory levels.

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
647 am CDT Thursday may 22 2014

Discussion...

Looking at temperatures from yesterday afternoon...everyone was in
the middle to upper 80s. 1000-850 thicknesses will rise slightly
today and Friday this should be enough for a 1 to 3 degree rise in
afternoon temperatures. That will put most places in the 87 to 91 range
and a few spots could inch even warmer.


This increase in heat is due to the upper ridging over the deep
south that will flatten out a little by Friday and into the
remainder of weekend. A weak boundary may have enough push to make
it into central Alabama and could bring an isolated thunderstorm
to the area beginning Sunday.


A few isolated thunderstorms remain possible each day next week
with temperatures ranging from the middle 80s to lower 90s in the
afternoon and 60s for the lows. The feature to watch next week
will be the sprawling upper low centered near Southern California.
This system will ever so slowly inch eastward and could be close
enough to the region to increase rain chances by middle to late week.
Quoting 1160. sar2401:


Not unless we cough up $32. I assume you are seeing it on an academic account. The great unwashed masses have to pay up if they want to learn anything.

Or visit a nearby library; many have subscriptions to numerous journals.
1166. MahFL
40 to 100 % of ACE, that's a huge range, you'd think they could be more accurate than that.
ANTICIPATION BUILDS FOR WEEKEND METEOR SHOWER: This weekend, Earth will pass through a stream of debris from Comet 209P/LINEAR. If forecasters are correct, the encounter could produce an outburst of bright meteors numbering more than 200 per hour. The best time to look for these "May Camelopardalids" is on Saturday, May 24th, between the hours of 0600 UT and 0800 UT (2 a.m. and 4 a.m. EDT). The timing favors observers in North America.

It is often said that this is a new shower, and no one has ever seen a May Camelopardalid before. Well...maybe just one. "We searched through our database of several thousand bright meteors and found a likely candidate," reports Bill Cooke of NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office. "Back on May 9th of 2012, one of our all-sky cameras caught it burning up at an altitude of 66 kilometers
Quoting 1109. rayduray2013:

Yah, it's a lovely user-friendly site. I'm reminded, by way of the opposite example, yesterday I attempted to navigate a USGS website to answer a simple question initiated from a comment here. What's the current and historic flow on the St. Vrain River? That was my simple question. By the time I threw the brick through the display I'd gotten completely befuddled by a parameter puzzle the USGS must have set up simply to frustrate anyone but an initiate to their sacred scripts. It was a monstrously useless site.

Yes, the USGS site can be hard to navigate at times, especially if you are unsure what you are looking for. Even a frequent user like myself has become lost from time to time if things are moved.

This is the closest info on the St. Vrain Creek that I could find for you. A USGS gauge near Longmont keeps a record of peak flows:
http://nwis.waterdata.usgs.gov/usa/nwis/peak/?age ncy_code=USGS&site_no=06725450
Quoting 1166. MahFL:

40 to 100 % of ACE, that's a huge range, you'd think they could be more accurate than that.

We don't know anything about accuracy at this time because this was a forecast made well in advance.
Perhaps the term you are looking for is "specific?"
Good Morning Folks.  Back from Conn and beautiful weather all around from Conn through the Virginia/North Carolina mountains on our route.  Plenty warm during the afternoons into the eighties but nice and in the fifties in the mornings and evenings.  8-13 potential storms is a very reasonable number considering the pending El Nino conditions in the Atlantic this Fall.

In the meantime, look at that E-Pac.  Everyone have a great day.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/epac/rb-l.jpg

Quoting 1147. ricderr:

NOAA anticipates 8-13 tropical storms, 3-6 hurricanes, 1-2 major hurricanes (near or below seasonal averages.)


Tampa Bay shields are up so all is good.

Disclaimer: In the event that Tampa get a direct hit from a hurricane, Tampa Bay shields are not real.
1172. StormWx
Quoting MahFL:
40 to 100 % of ACE, that's a huge range, you'd think they could be more accurate than that.


haha, you would think they would try, but considering last year was a major bust I cant blame them. They should just say "We predict 1-18 storms and ACE 10-100% of normal. There is a chance of a storm making landfall. Who knows if one will we dont have a magic 8-ball. Throwing a number out is meaningless, just be prepared if a storm comes your way."
There's a 85% chance that this season ends up below average...But something in the back of my mind says other wise.But el nino is definitely forming and I want another interesting winter.(Last year was a real unexpected treat.Even most agencies underestimated what would happen here in D.C).
1174. Dakster
Quoting 1173. washingtonian115:

There's a 85% chance that this season ends up below average...But something in the back of my mind says other wise.But el nino is definitely forming and I want another interesting winter.(Last year was a real unexpected treat.Even most agencies underestimated what would happen here in D.C).


You can have a below average number and still have a nasty season for someone.
Quoting 1174. Dakster:



You can have 85% below average number and still have a nasty season for someone.
I'm talking in terms of numbers not impacts.Now as for impacts the warmer water is centered near the U.S (This was the case in 2009 also but the only storm to take advantage was Claudette).We'll see if the U.S hurricane shield holds up for this season.Because next year I don't see the same thing happening again...
1176. sar2401
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Or visit a nearby library; many have subscriptions to numerous journals.

Like I've never done that before. Not in a town of 13,000 people in south Alabama they don't. I'm lucky I can get National Geographic. I got a blank stare when I asked for Nature and the computer turned up "Search item not found". It seems like the German conglomerate that owns Nature along with about 600 other journals, and made a 216 million Euro profit in 2010 (the latest year I could find - it's owned by a two person family and not traded) could throw us in the hinterland a bone and let libraries have a free subscription. My library lives hand to mouth, and they're not going to pay $199 for subscription for me to read the magazine, since I'm apparently the one and only person who ever asked for it.

Things are different away from the university, big cities, and government agencies, Scott.
1177. ricderr
Tampa Bay shields are up so all is good.

Disclaimer: In the event that Tampa get a direct hit from a hurricane, Tampa Bay shields are not real.



no way jr!!!!.......tampa is getting their cat 5 this year....gonna stall out right on the coastline.....i'm seeing three straight days of hurricane conditions :-)
1178. LargoFl
perhaps the east coast may want to stay a lil alert in 2 weeks........................................
1179. sar2401
Quoting Dakster:


You can have a below average number and still have a nasty season for someone.

Check out the link in Aussies post, Dak. It looks like the large and damaging hurricanes have almost an equal chance of occurring regardless of the state of ENSO. It's only the smaller ones that are most affected.
1142. Patrap
3:15 PM GMT on May 22, 2014

knowl·edge
facts, information, and skills acquired by a person through experience or education; the theoretical or practical understanding of a subject.

Quoting 1168. ScottLincoln:


Yes, the USGS site can be hard to navigate at times, especially if you are unsure what you are looking for. Even a frequent user like myself has become lost from time to time if things are moved.

This is the closest info on the St. Vrain Creek that I could find for you. A USGS gauge near Longmont keeps a record of peak flows:
http://nwis.waterdata.usgs.gov/usa/nwis/peak/?age ncy_code=USGS&site_no=06725450
Much obliged. Thanks, Scott. :)

I have an old kayaking buddy who is quite the techie as well. He set up this site for the kayak community back in the 1990s. I still find it raising my pulse even though I'm out of the boat for a long time now:

DREAMFLOWS


    Our Flounder, Chris Shakleton
1182. LargoFl
I know memorial day is a BBQ day...stay safe and check your labels...................................(CNN) -- Check your ground beef before you grill out this Memorial Day weekend. The USDA's Food Safety and Inspection Service says stores in nine states may have received beef contaminated with E. coli O157:H7.

The FSIS announced earlier this week that 1.8 million pounds of ground beef products were being recalled because they could be contaminated. The federal agency has since named five retailers that may have received the tainted products.


-- Gordon Food Service Marketplace stores in Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee and Wisconsin
1183. pottery

This is really very good news.
This Pope has issued some Challenges to his Flock here.
Thanks for posting this, Patrap.
I highlighted some pertinent points. But it's all pertinent.

Quoting Patrap:



Pope Francis Makes Biblical Case For Addressing Climate Change: ‘If We Destroy Creation, Creation Will Destroy Us’

BY JACK JENKINS MAY 21, 2014 AT 12:46 PM

Pope Francis made the religious case for tackling climate change on Wednesday, calling on his fellow Christians to become “Custodians of Creation” and issuing a dire warning about the potentially catastrophic effects of global climate change.
Speaking to a massive crowd in Rome, the first Argentinian pope delivered a short address in which he argued that respect for the “beauty of nature and the grandeur of the cosmos” is a Christian value, noting that failure to care for the planet risks apocalyptic consequences.
“Safeguard Creation,” he said. “Because if we destroy Creation, Creation will destroy us! Never forget this!”
The pope centered his environmentalist theology around the biblical creation story in the book of Genesis, where God is said to have created the world, declared it “good,” and charged humanity with its care. Francis also made reference to his namesake, Saint Francis of Assisi, who was a famous lover of animals, and appeared to tie the ongoing environmental crisis to economic concerns — namely, instances where a wealthy minority exploits the planet at the expense of the poor.
“Creation is not a property, which we can rule over at will; or, even less, is the property of only a few: Creation is a gift, it is a wonderful gift that God has given us, so that we care for it and we use it for the benefit of all, always with great respect and gratitude,” Francis said.
Francis also said that humanity’s destruction of the planet is a sinful act, likening it to self-idolatry.
“But when we exploit Creation we destroy the sign of God’s love for us, in destroying Creation we are saying to God: ‘I don’t like it! This is not good!’ ‘So what do you like?’ ‘I like myself!’ – Here, this is sin! Do you see?”
The pope’s comments come on the heels of a five-day summit on sustainability convened at the Vatican earlier this month. The summit, entitled “Sustainable Humanity, Sustainable Nature, Our Responsibility,” drew together microbiologists, legal scholars, economists, philosophers, astronomers, and other experts to discuss ways for the Catholic church to address a range issues caused by climate change. In a joint statement published after the close of the conference, participants echoed Francis’ belief that environmental justice and economic justice are inextricably linked.
“Human action which is not respectful of nature becomes a boomerang for human beings that creates inequality and extends what Pope Francis has termed ‘the globalization of indifference’ and the ‘economy of exclusion’ (Evangelii Gaudium), which themselves endanger solidarity with present and future generations,” the statement read.
The pontiff’s catechesis and the Vatican’s summit appear to be part of a renewed effort by the Catholic church to draw attention to environmental issues. Keeping with a long history of Catholic environmentalism (including several pro-environmentalist sermons delivered by Pope Benedict XVI, Francis’ predecessor), Francis addressed climate change in his inaugural mass as pope, and is rumored to be working on a formal encyclical on the environment.
Say wa
Two 2 tropical waves
Tropical wave #3&4

12Z GFS is really wanting to kick off the rainy season across FL starting Sunday with rain chances becoming more likely as next week wears on. Great news as it is really beginning to get dry fast around here. Couple of really hot days Friday and Saturday then we transition to a more normal summertime pattern.

1186. sar2401
Quoting LargoFl:
I know memorial day is a BBQ day...stay safe and check your labels...................................(CNN) -- Check your ground beef before you grill out this Memorial Day weekend. The USDA's Food Safety and Inspection Service says stores in nine states may have received beef contaminated with E. coli O157:H7.

The FSIS announced earlier this week that 1.8 million pounds of ground beef products were being recalled because they could be contaminated. The federal agency has since named five retailers that may have received the tainted products.






Watch this video

1.8M pounds of ground beef recalled





Watch this video

Affair at meat plant under investigation





Watch this video

Rancher: No way our beef was tainted
They are as follows:

-- Gordon Food Service Marketplace stores in Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee and Wisconsin

Help us out with a Iink, Largo, before I poison myself with bad hamburger. :-)
1187. LargoFl
Quoting 1185. StormTrackerScott:

12Z GFS is really wanting to kick off the rainy season across FL starting Sunday with rain chances becoming more likely as next week wears on. Great news as it is really beginning to get dry fast around here. Couple of really hot days Friday and Saturday then we transition to a more normal summertime pattern.


You see that storm on the GFS Scott (Which is likely to form June 27th and not May 27th).
1189. LargoFl
Quoting 1186. sar2401:


Help us out with a Iink, Largo, before I poison myself with bad hamburger. :-)
its on cnn pageLink
1190. ricderr
Pope Francis Makes Biblical Case For Addressing Climate Change: ‘If We Destroy Creation, Creation Will Destroy Us’


i am a firm believer...that if you claim the christian faith....even if you are skeptical of climate change...you would be duty bound to follow the steps to mitigate climate change as it protects the planet which christianity claims is a creation of god
Quoting 1188. washingtonian115:

You see that storm on the GFS Scott (Which is likely to form June 27th and not May 27th).


Yeah trying to stay away from looking at that. What is interesting though and by all means just so certain individuals know I am not saying this system will materialize but what I will say is many GFS ensembles are latching onto this system at day 10. My feeling is that this will likely be more of a monsoon trough that forms in the NW Caribbean and the moisture eventually gets pulled across FL.

I will say this though Washi we have had a storm for in the NW Caribbean the last couple of years and each of those systems went on to hit FL as weak to moderate Tropical Storms. First though we need to see convection start to fire in the Caribbean before we can make a more definitive conclusion.
1192. ricderr
Help us out with a Iink, Largo, before I poison myself with bad hamburger. :-)


you're safe sar...they only sent it to the crappy states
1193. pottery
Quoting ricderr:
Pope Francis Makes Biblical Case For Addressing Climate Change: ‘If We Destroy Creation, Creation Will Destroy Us’


i am a firm believer...that if you claim the christian faith....even if you are skeptical of climate change...you would be duty bound to follow the steps to mitigate climate change as it protects the planet which christianity claims is a creation of god

I agree with that.
But in the meantime, I'm eagerly awaiting the response from those that have claimed that the change to the climate is all Gods Plan.

The Pope seems to think not.
The spin will be interesting, eh ?
Quoting 1160. sar2401:


Not unless we cough up $32. I assume you are seeing it on an academic account. The great unwashed masses have to pay up if they want to learn anything.


The video on that page is free, and gives a pretty good summary of the research.

The question of the implications of the research is another question.


the bird in my backyard this morning!!!!!
1196. sar2401
Quoting pottery:

This is really very good news.
This Pope has issued some Challenges to his Flock here.
Thanks for posting this, Patrap.
I highlighted some pertinent points. But it's all pertinent.


Disregarding the religious aspect (for which a member got beaten up yesterday), The Roman Catholic church is a huge enterprise. If it ws a commercial operation, it would have more stores than the top five fast food chains combined. Given the pattern of the early missionaries, there are a disproportionate number Roman Catholics (and facilities) located near coastlines. There are large numbers of church owned properties at risk and some are simply priceless. Venice, for example, simply can't be rebuilt, and the church own about 300 properties there. I believe the Pope is sincere in his statement, but there is an army of accountants and economists behind him whom, I'm sure, have fed him some pretty dramatic numbers.
12z GFS takes a pretty good storm in around Tampa it looks like. Way long range still, no development until 11 days out or so.
1198. sar2401
Quoting oxnardprof:


The video on that page is free, and gives a pretty good summary of the research.

The question of the implications of the research is another question.

Yes, it is. The summary itself is pretty good. I posted quite an extensive list of methodology question I had about the study. Unfortunately, none of them are answered in the summary. Given the possible implications, the structure and methods used to arrive the conclusions is vital.
1199. sar2401
Quoting ricderr:
Help us out with a Iink, Largo, before I poison myself with bad hamburger. :-)


you're safe sar...they only sent it to the crappy states

Thank the Lord. It will probably show up here in the bent and dent store then.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1201. ricderr
The Pope seems to think not.
The spin will be interesting, eh ?


of course....every other christian religion can just say those darn catholics are getting uppity again and discount it
1202. pottery
Quoting sar2401:

Disregarding the religious aspect (for which a member got beaten up yesterday), The Roman Catholic church is a huge enterprise. If it ws a commercial operation, it would have more stores than the top five fast food chains combined. Given the pattern of the early missionaries, there are a disproportionate number Roman Catholics (and facilities) located near coastlines. There are large numbers of church owned properties at risk and some are simply priceless. Venice, for example, simply can't be rebuilt, and the church own about 300 properties there. I believe the Pope is sincere in his statement, but there is an army of accountants and economists behind him whom, I'm sure, have fed him some pretty dramatic numbers.

Well, thanks for bursting my bubble.
Here I was, all convinced that His Holiness had seen the altruistic light. :):))

But in any event, he is the first to come out and link The Church so directly to it's responsibilities in this matter.
Bravo, I say !
NOAA numbers are out for may

8-13 cyclones

3-6 Hurricanes

1-2 severe
Quoting 1182. LargoFl:

I know memorial day is a BBQ day...stay safe and check your labels...................................(CNN) -- Check your ground beef before you grill out this Memorial Day weekend. The USDA's Food Safety and Inspection Service says stores in nine states may have received beef contaminated with E. coli O157:H7.

The FSIS announced earlier this week that 1.8 million pounds of ground beef products were being recalled because they could be contaminated. The federal agency has since named five retailers that may have received the tainted products.


-- Gordon Food Service Marketplace stores in Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee and Wisconsin
AND, Memorial Day is when we remember all of our brave men and women that have died while serving our country, but also be leary of the ground beef... Put out your flag.
Quoting 1204. PalmBeachWeather:


AND, Memorial Day is when we remember all of our brave men and women that have died while serving our country, but also be leary of the ground beef... Put out your flag.
Quoting 1197. MAweatherboy1:

12z GFS takes a pretty good storm in around Tampa it looks like. Way long range still, no development until 11 days out or so.
It will stay a half a week out until two weeks before June 27th.The GfS has been known to be "stuck in time" when it forecast early season storms.(I remember it predicted
Arlene in 2011 to form around Memorial day but kept keeping it at the same time or pushing up the time frame).

From CWG..

Jeff-CapitalWeatherGang
12:10 PM EDT
"The thing that is always in the back of my mind: "Is the hyperactive period of the AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) coming to an end?" irrespective of ENSO variations. That last year was such a dud, in the absence of a strong ENSO signal, makes you wonder. Most years since 1995 have been way above long-term average. AMO cycles tend to last a couple decades. Too early to tell yet, but I think any downward trend, starting last year and extending through at least the next 2-3 consecutive years, may force us to think about whether we are entering a quieter era. Food for thought."

WOW!!!

The start.
Quoting 1208. HurricaneAndre:


The start.

The start is earlier than that

Anyway be right back
1210. Patrap



Quoting Patrap:



That's right Pat, be preapred.
First Cod Red for 48 hours

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221734
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU MAY 22 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Visible satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms are
becoming better organized near an area of low pressure located
several hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.
Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development,
and a tropical depression could form during the next day or two
while the system moves northwestward to west-northwestward at 5 to
10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

$$
Forecaster Berg
GFS has nothing more than a TD:



CMC has a TS:



Navgem has TS too:

My view of the Atlas V launch this morning..

Oh.. New Blog!!!
Quoting 1176. sar2401:


Things are different away from the university, big cities, and government agencies, Scott.

It's interesting that you say that, because actually we don't have subscriptions for many journals, either. I either have to get a librarian from one of the NOAA-operated labs to send me a copy or we have to hope that the journal has made itself free electronically to NWS offices. We don't pay for as many subscriptions as you think we do.
1217. flsky
Darn - missed it.

Quoting 1214. Skyepony:

My view of the Atlas V launch this morning..


Go look at Northern Nevada radar. Big cell that WU reported dropped 2" of rain in 4 hours, flash flood watches up a ways to our east. Sand Mountain's in its path, and we're 8 miles down the road from there. Reports of nickle sized hail and some gorgeous clouds to our east northeast, but I have to go finish tarping and let my phone charge in case it's a Candles and Scrabble night. :) I hope someone else takes some pics.

Zip zip, work to do! :)
Really? Warmest temps on record in April in the Townsville region? Cyclone Ita caused $1 Billion damage? Is there somewhere I can get hold of the raw data for that information?