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Extreme Floods in Bosnia and Serbia Kill at Least 38

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:19 PM GMT on May 19, 2014

Torrential rains on May 14 - 15 in Serbia and Bosnia-Herzegovina have caused extreme flooding that has killed at least 38 people, said Reuters today, with the death toll expected to rise once flooding recedes and areas cut off from help are reached. Extratropical Storm Yvette, a strong and slow-moving upper-level low pressure that cut off from the jet stream, lingered over the region for two days, pulling up copious amounts of moisture from the Mediterranean Sea and generating torrential rains. "In three days, as much rain fell as normally falls in three months," said Goran Mihajlovic, of Serbia's Meteorological Institute. "Statistically, such rainfall happens once in 100 years," he added. At least 500,000 of Bosnia's four million people have been evacuated or have left their homes. More than 100,000 buildings have been damaged or destroyed, and more than one million people are without clean water. The floods have been unearthing land mines and bombs left over from the 1992 - 1995 war, one of which showed up in this man's garden, as seen at 1:25 into the video.

The same high-amplitude jet stream pattern that contributed to the heavy rains over Bosnia and Serbia last week is now bringing record May heat to portions of Russia, Finland, and Estonia today. In St. Petersburg, Russia, the mercury climbed to 32.7°C (91°F) on Monday afternoon, beating the former May all-time record of 30.9°C set in 1958, according to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera.


Figure 1. Aerial view of the flooded area near the Bosnian town of Brcko along the river Sava, taken May 18, 2014. (AP Photo/Bosnia Army)


Figure 2. Though the heavy rains have ceased, many rivers in Serbia and Bosnia will continue rising this week, as rain-swollen tributaries pour into main rivers. The Sava River in Beograd (Belgrade), Serbia is forecast to continue rising through Friday, May 23, but is below the all-time flood height of 738 cm set on April 16, 2006. The Sava upstream from Belgrade at Sabac crested at an all-time record height on Sunday, May 18, 2014 (flood stage records go back to 1946.) There are concerns that the Sava River 18 miles downstream of Belgrade will overwhelm the flood defenses of Serbia's largest power plant, the coal-fired Nikola Tesla complex, which provides half of the nation's power. Image credit: Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia.


Video 1. A landslide destroys a house in Bosnia in the wake of extreme flooding that hit the nation on May 15 - 16, 2014. At least 3,000 landslides were spawned by the torrential rains that hit Bosnia and Serbia. Thanks go to wunderground member barbamz for posting this video and the Sava River water level link in the comments section of my blog.

Jeff Masters

Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. M, interesting! Seems like there are more and more of these disasters taking place across the world. Floods in some areas, Droughts in others.
Thanks for the new blog! Really horrible what's going on over parts of Eastern Europe. And to think extreme weather like this could become the norm in another 20-30 years. :(

Just thought I'd bring this over from the previous blog too:

Esa's Cryosat mission sees Antarctic ice losses double

Antarctica is now losing about 160 billion tonnes of ice a year to the ocean - twice as much as when the continent was last surveyed.

The new assessment comes from Europe's Cryosat spacecraft, which has a radar instrument specifically designed to measure the shape of the ice sheet.

The melt loss from the White Continent is sufficient to push up global sea levels by around 0.43mm per year.

Scientists report the data in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

The new study incorporates three years of measurements from 2010 to 2013, and updates a synthesis of observations made by other satellites over the period 2005 to 2010.

Cryosat has been using its altimeter to trace changes in the height of the ice sheet - as it gains mass through snowfall, and loses mass through melting.


Read more here.
In three days, as much rain fell as normally falls in three months," said Goran Mihajlovic


haven't i heard severe weather has not increased in years?...sure doesn't seem that way
Thank you for the updated blog entry Dr. Masters..
The video is amazing..
3,000 landslides is incredible..
And their power infrastructure is in peril as well..
Keeping them in my thoughts..
Thanks again..
i'll let this one be blog peer reviewed:

Recent weather events such as deadly heat waves and devastating floods have sparked popular interest in understanding the role of global warming in driving extreme weather. These events are part of a new pattern of more extreme weather across the globe, shaped in part by human-induced climate change.

As the climate has warmed, some types of extreme weather have become more frequent and severe in recent decades, with increases in extreme heat, intense precipitation, and drought. Heat waves are longer and hotter. Heavy rains and flooding are more frequent. In a wide swing between extremes, drought, too, is more intense and more widespread.

- See more at: http://www.climatecommunication.org/new/articles/e xtreme-weather/overview/#sthash.SCaDqZYH.dpuf
Wow.

I had posted about what I thought was an unusual moisture plume that extended from off west Africa to Europe, some days ago.

I was not sure how 'unusual' it was, but it was new to me.
Picked up more moisture over the Med., and look at that.
Incredible floods there.

Half a million evacuated and in trouble.
Really bad stuff there.
Thanks Doc, the current Estofex storm forecast outlines the blocking pattern currently dominant:

Link

SYNOPSIS

The anticyclone over far W-Russia keeps its strength during the forecast with no forward motion expected. Its antagonist is an unseasonably strong trough over the E-Atlantic, which continues to amplify south. This trough evolves into an extensive upper low just west of the Bay of Biscay. 30-60 m/s mid/upper jets circle this vortex and start to affect far W-Europe during the forecast. In the meantime, a small-scale low over the Balearic Islands moves towards N-Italy and later on towards the N-Balkan States.

A similar cut-off low setup in June 2013 caused the devastating floods in Austria, Germany and the Czech Republic.
Thanks for the post, Dr. Masters. One thing though - from the caption to Figure 2:

"There are concerns that the Sava River 18 miles downstream of Belgrade will overwhelm the flood defenses of Serbia's largest power plant, the coal-fired Nikola Tesla complex, which provides half of the nation's power. "

I believe it should say 'upstream' of Belgrade. The Tesla plant is between Sabac and Obrenovac.
Quoting 5. ricderr:

i'll let this one be blog peer reviewed:

Recent weather events such as deadly heat waves and devastating floods have sparked popular interest in understanding the role of global warming in driving extreme weather. These events are part of a new pattern of more extreme weather across the globe, shaped in part by human-induced climate change.

As the climate has warmed, some types of extreme weather have become more frequent and severe in recent decades, with increases in extreme heat, intense precipitation, and drought. Heat waves are longer and hotter. Heavy rains and flooding are more frequent. In a wide swing between extremes, drought, too, is more intense and more widespread.

- See more at: http://www.climatecommunication.org/new/articles/e xtreme-weather/overview/#sthash.SCaDqZYH.dpuf
My opinion is my usual: not enough data. There haven't been any major volcanic eruptions. Tornado activity is down. North Atlantic hurricane activity was down last year. Bla bla bla. I'm not saying the conclusions are wrong. I'm saying the level of certainty is extremely low.
Incidentally, yesterday was a new record for Max. Temp here for the date.
34C
The record was broken 3 times in the past week, on 3 days.

Thank goodness the Planet is cooling………...
Thank you Dr. Masters, Terrible situation there...So sad
"The same high-amplitude jet stream pattern that contributed to the heavy rains over Bosnia and Serbia last week is now bringing record May heat to portions of Russia, Finland, and Estonia today. In St. Petersburg, Russia, the mercury climbed to at least 32.0°C (90°F) on Monday afternoon, beating the former May all-time record of 30.9°C set in 1958"

Looks like more of the same - abnormal 'stuck' jet stream activity bringing extremes of flooding and drought simultaneously. In 2010, it was a record Russian/Ukrainian heat wave and unprecedented flooding in Pakistan. The drought caused record wildfires throughout Russia, tens of thousands of excess deaths, and a reduced wheat harvest which pushed global prices up, and played a significant part in the Arab spring revolutions.

Here, in the UK, a stuck jet stream brought record storms and rain during the winter, and very cold, snowy weather to the eastern US, with extreme drought to the west. Scientists have long warned that there would be more extreme weather events in a warmer world, but that was without factoring in this abnormal jet stream activity, probably caused by a warmer Arctic. So, it looks as if things are about to get even more extreme than anyone reckoned, because the Arctic is only going to get warmer.

We live in interesting times.
Quoting MAstu:
My opinion is my usual: not enough data. There haven't been any major volcanic eruptions. Tornado activity is down. North Atlantic hurricane activity was down last year. Bla bla bla. I'm not saying the conclusions are wrong. I'm saying the level of certainty is extremely low.

True.
We certainly need ''certainty''.
And in the meantime, more and more people are suffering very badly due to Extreme Weather, and there are visible signs all over the place that things are certainly changing very quickly.

One can be reasonably ''certain'' of that.
But maybe we should wait some more, before we are certain.
Yep, I wouldn't want to be too hasty. I don't want to get insurance for my house until I know it is going to burn down. :O

Quoting LAbonbon:
Thanks for the post, Dr. Masters. One thing though - from the caption to Figure 2:

"There are concerns that the Sava River 18 miles downstream of Belgrade will overwhelm the flood defenses of Serbia's largest power plant, the coal-fired Nikola Tesla complex, which provides half of the nation's power. "

I believe it should say 'upstream' of Belgrade. The Tesla plant is between Sabac and Obrenovac.

LOL. I remember about us puzzling over this yesterday so, when I read Dr. M's new blog, I thought it was backward also...but I'm too old and feeble to make those kinds of claims. :-)
All these unusual weather events could be a cycle that the Earth is going through that we have never experienced before. How long have we been here and how old is the climate on this Earth been evolving? Sure we could blame it on climate change which it probably is, but its part of a natural change we have never experienced. I pray we are not trying to alter the weather through HARRP or Chem Trails as we as a species are not intelligent enough to know the outcome of these experiments.
Quoting 3. ricderr:

In three days, as much rain fell as normally falls in three months," said Goran Mihajlovic


haven't i heard severe weather has not increased in years?...sure doesn't seem that way


We just know about them more now that Al Gore invented the internet.

(sarcasm)
Quoting 2. Envoirment:

0.43mm per year....


Better invest in some sand bags for that massive 0.43 mm rise......
I really hope this El Nino is a weak one. Barbados is really dry and if we don't get rain soon, we might enter a drought.
Quoting 19. ryang:

I really hope this El Nino is a weak one. Barbados is really dry and if we don't get rain soon, we might enter a drought.


Don't worry man, have another rum !
My opinion is my usual: not enough data. There haven't been any major volcanic eruptions. Tornado activity is down. North Atlantic hurricane activity was down last year. Bla bla bla. I'm not saying the conclusions are wrong. I'm saying the level of certainty is extremely low.

i have to agree...hard enough to keep up the plethora of information for a small area...no way i could say for certain on a global scale.....but someday...some will
Quoting NativeSun:
All these unusual weather events could be a cycle that the Earth is going through that we have never experienced before. How long have we been here and how old is the climate on this Earth been evolving? Sure we could blame it on climate change which it probably is, but its part of a natural change we have never experienced. I pray we are not trying to alter the weather through HARRP or Chem Trails as we as a species are not intelligent enough to know the outcome of these experiments.


Could not have said it any better.
It's certainly true for many.

I am wondering, though, what ''evidence'' would be acceptable to you, to convince you that what you are seeing is not a Natural Change?
Thanks for the new blog post Dr. Masters
We just know about them more now that Al Gore invented the internet.



lol...i remember it wasn't that long that the common thought was if you could discredit gore...you would stop this global warming nonsense
Quoting 16. NativeSun:

All these unusual weather events could be a cycle that the Earth is going through that we have never experienced before. How long have we been here and how old is the climate on this Earth been evolving? Sure we could blame it on climate change which it probably is, but its part of a natural change we have never experienced. I pray we are not trying to alter the weather through HARRP or Chem Trails as we as a species are not intelligent enough to know the outcome of these experiments.


All climate change has a physical mechanism behind it. Scientists say the current warming is due to greenhouse gases. If you disagree, it's up to you to provide an alternative mechanism.
Quoting 24. ricderr:

We just know about them more now that Al Gore invented the internet.



lol...i remember it wasn't that long that the common thought was if you could discredit gore...you would stop this global warming nonsense


And the common thought today is?
Quoting MAstu:
My opinion is my usual: not enough data. There haven't been any major volcanic eruptions. Tornado activity is down. North Atlantic hurricane activity was down last year. Bla bla bla. I'm not saying the conclusions are wrong. I'm saying the level of certainty is extremely low.


I would be extremely concerned if humans began to cause volcano eruptions.
Thank you, doc, for the update (glad I could contribute something useful :-) - WU-member LABonbon pointed first to the Serbian Hydrological Site, as far as I remember).

German weatherservice got a usefull link list to all National Weather Services (including the Balkan states), though in some countries private services may be better than the official ones.

Meanwhile German wikipedia article on "Yvette" (Serbians named the system as "Tamara") provides a NOAA-Map showing the accumulated rainfall in Europe from May 11-17 in l/m:

Can someone assist me in re-learning how to post Youtube videos? barbamz walked me through it last year, but all that time off the blog seems to have eroded my memory bank :/

I know to hit 'Share', and copy the embed code, but then what? Paste as an image doesn't work, neither does simply pasting into the comment box.
Quoting 27. Astrometeor:



I would be extremely concerned if humans began to cause volcano eruptions.


They are dismantling HAARP so no worries on generating hurricanes any more either. (even though that wasn't what HAARP did, the consipiracy theories seem to think so)
Quoting Astrometeor:


I would be extremely concerned if humans began to cause volcano eruptions.


Apparently the Frackers are working on this as we speak…...
Quoting 29. LAbonbon:

Can someone assist me in re-learning how to post Youtube videos? barbamz walked me through it last year, but all that time off the blog seems to have eroded my memory bank :/

I know to hit 'Share', and copy the embed code, but then what? Paste as an image doesn't work, neither does simply pasting into the comment box.


You need the old embed code box checked in youtube. Then just paste in the box. (Not as an image or link)
Quoting Envoirment:
Thanks for the new blog! Really horrible what's going on over parts of Eastern Europe. And to think extreme weather like this could become the norm in another 20-30 years. :(

Just thought I'd bring this over from the previous blog too:

Esa's Cryosat mission sees Antarctic ice losses double

Antarctica is now losing about 160 billion tonnes of ice a year to the ocean - twice as much as when the continent was last surveyed.

The new assessment comes from Europe's Cryosat spacecraft, which has a radar instrument specifically designed to measure the shape of the ice sheet.

The melt loss from the White Continent is sufficient to push up global sea levels by around 0.43mm per year.

Scientists report the data in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

The new study incorporates three years of measurements from 2010 to 2013, and updates a synthesis of observations made by other satellites over the period 2005 to 2010.

Cryosat has been using its altimeter to trace changes in the height of the ice sheet - as it gains mass through snowfall, and loses mass through melting.


Read more here.

Did the writer get this correct? That's .017" per year. It would take ten years or so to see an inch of sea level rise. Isn't it supposed to be 43 mm?
Quoting 33. sar2401:


Did the writer get this correct? That's .017" per year. It would take ten years or so to see an inch of sea level rise. Isn't it supposed to be 43 mm?


No, it's right.
Quoting sar2401:

Did the writer get this correct? That's .017" per year. It would take ten years or so to see an inch of sea level rise. Isn't it supposed to be 43 mm?


I think/hope the writer got it right.
An inch in 10 years GLOBAL water level increase is pretty phenomenal, isn't it ?
Quoting NativeSun:
All these unusual weather events could be a cycle that the Earth is going through that we have never experienced before. How long have we been here and how old is the climate on this Earth been evolving? Sure we could blame it on climate change which it probably is, but its part of a natural change we have never experienced. I pray we are not trying to alter the weather through HARRP or Chem Trails as we as a species are not intelligent enough to know the outcome of these experiments.


Well, you're right that WE'VE never experienced any climate change before, the entirety of human civilization has existed in a pretty stable, warm environment.

Having said that, we have geologic records and ice core records that give us a good history of what things were like long, long ago, way before humans ever traversed this planet. We also know physics pretty well I would say, so we know what causes climate change to happen and all natural causes have been so far crossed out of the list as potentially responsible for what we are seeing today.

HAARP and Chem....lol.

I would think we are intelligent enough species to know the consequences. Doesn't mean that we'll listen to our own findings, that's a completely different matter.

WU's AGW-centric blog is here if you want to ask any more questions[some bloggers here get sensitive when the topic switches to AGW/CC].
Quoting 31. pottery:


Apparently the Frackers are working on this as we speak…...


That would make a great theme for a SYFY movie.
Quoting 29. LAbonbon:

Can someone assist me in re-learning how to post Youtube videos? barbamz walked me through it last year, but all that time off the blog seems to have eroded my memory bank :/

I know to hit 'Share', and copy the embed code, but then what? Paste as an image doesn't work, neither does simply pasting into the comment box.


You should post it right into the comment box nevertheless - after chosing "old embedded code" (or what it's called in English). If the old code is not available you first have to convert the new (shorter) code by using Neapolitan's great converter: Link
Quoting rmbjoe1954:


That would make a great theme for a SYFY movie.


Yeah. I hope Bond or Rambo or someone is around to deal with the threat…….
Quoting 13. pottery:


True.
We certainly need ''certainty''.
And in the meantime, more and more people are suffering very badly due to Extreme Weather, and there are visible signs all over the place that things are certainly changing very quickly.

One can be reasonably ''certain'' of that.
But maybe we should wait some more, before we are certain.
Good morning Pott...Things are changing quickly. The evidence that industrial pollution has had a significant impact on the atmosphere and climate far outweighs any evidence to the contrary. Some people simply have limited knowledge on the subject and should know the truth about what is really happening, others deny it, or say its flat out impossible. It shouldnt be long before all humans realize that we have been , and will continue to alter Earths atmosphere. The sooner countries work together at resolving the problems associated with air pollution, toxic waste dumps, and water contamination, the better it is for all life on the planet.
As current extreme events (relative to current norms) become more and more common-place, the "extreme" will become the "new normal" ... so the upside is that we will see fewer and fewer "extreme" events.

I new there was hope. All you have to do is look in the right place.
Quoting 32. Dakster:



You need the old embed code box checked in youtube. Then just paste in the box. (Not as an image or link)


Thanks, Dakster. that sounds familiar. Unfortunately the video I was trying to embed doesn't offer that as an option. I checked a few others, and they all had the option.

The video I was trying to embed is Global Warming changes the Jet Stream, cause of more Extreme Weather.

This video features Dr. Masters, amongst others.
Quoting pottery:


I think/hope the writer got it right.
An inch in 10 years GLOBAL water level increase is pretty phenomenal, isn't it ?

I don't know. It seems the amount of ice melt they're predicting is also pretty phenomenal...
44. jpsb
Quoting 35. pottery:



I think/hope the writer got it right.
An inch in 10 years GLOBAL water level increase is pretty phenomenal, isn't it ?


IMHO an inch every ten years from Antarctica is significant, not catastrophic, if true. But if the trend is positive ........

If this is a new satellite and it seems to be, then calibration errors might be in play. I've read it takes a few years to work out all the bugs. There are other satillites keeping en eye on the Antarctic, let's see if they agree with these observations.
Quoting 38. barbamz:



You should post it right into the comment box nevertheless - after chosing "old embedded code" (or what it's called in English). When the old code is not available you first have to convert the new (shorter) code by using Neapolitan's great converter: Link


Thanks. Unfortunately it didn't work. It just left a large blank space (where the video would have been) when I did a comment preview.

I am impressed that Nea made the converter, even if it didn't work in this instance.

Quoting 9. MAstu:

My opinion is my usual



The data is available and easily Googled.



Recent Weather Disasters Reveal Possible Climate Change
Ray here. Dr. Masters has covered this topic in great detail. It is complelely indisputable that we are in an entirely different climate regime than we were in during the 1980s and prior decades. Certainly part of the loss from weather has to do with humans building more infrastructure in the path of hurricanes, tornadoes or on flood plains. But there is a statistically provable case that the weather is changing, and not for the better.

An excellent source on this is Munich RE, the reinsurer.  See related story: http://tinyurl.com/otzr3cf
Quoting 14. bappit:

Yep, I wouldn't want to be too hasty. I don't want to get insurance for my house until I know it is going to burn down. :O


Quoting 41. FBMinFL:

As current extreme events (relative to current norms) become more and more common-place, the "extreme" will become the "new normal" ... so the upside is that we will see fewer and fewer "extreme" events.

I new there was hope. All you have to do is look in the right place.
I'd call it a tie for the best comments of the day so far.
Quoting 46. LAbonbon:



Thanks. Unfortunately it didn't work. It just left a large blank space (where the video would have been) when I did a comment preview.

I am impressed that Nea made the converter, even if it didn't work in this instance.






Here it is, LAbonbon. Nea's converter did the job.
Quoting 33. sar2401:


Did the writer get this correct? That's .017" per year. It would take ten years or so to see an inch of sea level rise. Isn't it supposed to be 43 mm?


Actually it'll take ~60 years at that rate for a 1 inch rise in global sea levels. NOAA has said that sea level rise has been ~0.12 inches/year since 1992:

Since 1992, new methods of satellite altimetry (the measurement of elevation or altitude) indicate a rate of rise of 0.12 inches per year.


Link

So it's just the sea level increase from the melting of the ice, not including melting of other ice bodies/expansion due to warming and possible other things I've missed out.
Quoting 44. jpsb:



IMHO an inch every ten years from Antarctica is significant, not catastrophic, if true. But if the trend is positive ........

If this is a new satellite and it seems to be, then calibration errors might be in play. I've read it takes a few years to work out all the bugs. There are other satillites keeping en eye on the Antarctic, let's see if they agree with these observations.
See comment 14.
Quoting 9. MAstu:

My opinion is my usual: not enough data. There haven't been any major volcanic eruptions. Tornado activity is down. North Atlantic hurricane activity was down last year. Bla bla bla. I'm not saying the conclusions are wrong. I'm saying the level of certainty is extremely low.

Your opinion is an uninformed opinion based on your opinion only. The facts are rampant..
Quoting 28. barbamz:

Thank you, doc, for the update (glad I could contribute something useful :-) - WU-member LABonbon pointed first to the Serbian Hydrological Site, as far as I remember).

German weatherservice got a usefull link list to all National Weather Services (including the Balkan states), though in some countries private services may be better than the official ones.

Meanwhile German wikipedia article on "Yvette" (Serbians named the system as "Tamara") provides a NOAA-Map showing the accumulated rainfall in Europe from May 11-17 in l/m:




Thanks for the credit, barbamz, though it wasn't necessary. I love the Serbian site - it's so easy to use and very understandable.

Fantastic link for national meteorology sites. I definitely bookmarked that one.

Quoting 15. sar2401:


LOL. I remember about us puzzling over this yesterday
I was puzzling over something different. I was wondering if  you've ever come across this fella down in your neck of the woods?


55. jpsb
Quoting 50. Envoirment:



Actually it'll take ~60 years at that rate for a 1 inch rise in global sea levels. NOAA as said that sea level rise has been ~0.12 inches/year since 1992:


Since 1992, new methods of satellite altimetry (the measurement of elevation or altitude) indicate a rate of rise of 0.12 inches per year.


LinkLink

So it's just the sea level increase from the melting of the ice, not including melting of other ice bodies/expansion due to warming and possible other things I've missed out.



Opps I should have done the math .45 mm = 0.0169291 inch. Please disregard my previous comment.
Sao Paulo, Brazil, today in the morning. https://fbcdn-sphotos-f-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak- ash4/t1.0-9/10314634_805944299424146_2564467016497 679000_n.jpg
Here's the link to a very good, extensive and nicely pictured article in The Guardian. It's not only about rivers but shorelines threatened by rising waters as well, so interesting for a lot of you folks, I guess. And the Dutch are really smart:

Taming the floods, Dutch-style
What Britain can learn from the Netherlands about defending against floods and adapting to climate change
Damian Carrington, in Noordwaard polder, theguardian.com, Monday 19 May 2014 07.00 BST


A De Dommel water board project shows how reclaimed land polders are being given back to rivers and meanders are cut into flood plains, as part of Netherland's back-to-nature approach. Photograph: Courtesy De Dommel Waterboard

Quoting 49. barbamz:





Here it is, LAbonbon. Nea's converter did the job.



Thanks again! So, this leaves us w/ operator error, perhaps? No clue why it didn't work. Nea's instructions were quite clear. Or maybe it's my system - it seemed to take a while before putting up the large blank space.

Oh, well, maybe next time I'll have better luck...
Its been amazingly warm here today, it reached 27c (80F), which is unusual for May.
I'm off...

Have a nice day, everyone.
Quoting ZacWeatherKidUK:
Its been amazingly warm here today, it reached 27c (80F), which is unusual for May.


That's average for me.

Quoting 13. pottery:


True.
We certainly need ''certainty''.
And in the meantime, more and more people are suffering very badly due to Extreme Weather, and there are visible signs all over the place that things are certainly changing very quickly.

One can be reasonably ''certain'' of that.
But maybe we should wait some more, before we are certain.
Not where I was going with that. My other usual answer is: I am certain enough that emitting CO2 is bad that we should stop burning fossil fuels.
However, extreme weather events by their very nature are not a good place to look for evidence because they are infrequent. In order to have certainty you have to have a lot of data. If I were to say global warming is making thunderstorms less intense as evidenced by the 2014 season, you would rightfully say that I'm jumping to conclusions even though there have been hundreds if not thousands of thunderstorms this year.
So again, global warming is a problem and we need to take action. Floods and droughts may be getting more severe, but I'm not convinced yet.
Quoting 44. jpsb:



IMHO an inch every ten years from Antarctica is significant, not catastrophic, if true. But if the trend is positive ........

If this is a new satellite and it seems to be, then calibration errors might be in play. I've read it takes a few years to work out all the bugs. There are other satillites keeping en eye on the Antarctic, let's see if they agree with these observations.
Quoting 51. LowerCal:

See comment 14.
... or check available facts.

"The team confirmed CryoSat-2 estimates using independent ground and airborne measurements carried out by ESA and international scientists during the last two years in the polar region, as well as by comparing measurements from NASA’s Operation IceBridge."

is an excerpt from CryoSat-2 - eoPortal Directory - Satellite Missions.
my question was answered, thank you Skye!
Quoting NativeSun:
All these unusual weather events could be a cycle that the Earth is going through that we have never experienced before. How long have we been here and how old is the climate on this Earth been evolving? Sure we could blame it on climate change which it probably is, but its part of a natural change we have never experienced. I pray we are not trying to alter the weather through HARRP or Chem Trails as we as a species are not intelligent enough to know the outcome of these experiments.
We're definitely "experimenting", alright, altering the weather as part of a decades-long "test" to see whether the 4 million tonnes of heat-inducing CO2 we pump into the atmosphere every hour of every day will be enough to end civilization as we know it. So far, all signs point to yes...
CFL forecast calls for 80s and sunshine this week. Enjoy it people!

Quoting 52. Wolfberry:


Your opinion is an uninformed opinion based on your opinion only. The facts are rampant..
My profession is catastrophe modeling... I analyze weather disasters all day long. My main point is about certainty. A lot of people on here don't pay enough attention to how much data is behind assumptions on the results of global warming. There are a gazillion studies with lots of data that global warming is happening and that the results will be very bad for us so we need to take action now. That doesn't mean that every prediction about bad things happening will come true and a lot of times the prudent thing to do is to wait and see.

Example: should we start building sea walls around NYC and Tampa? Should we abandon those places altogether? These decisions require certainty because they are very expensive and the money may better be used somewhere else.
Would the Moderator that just banned me for no good reason from Dr. Roods blog PLEASE take the time to explain to me WHY I was banned...


ban hammer has been rampant today....bloggers banned here this a.m.....personal sites banning bloggers...and now you on rood's blog.......i've had to work extra hard on being good this morn so as not to join the list
Quoting MAstu:
Not where I was going with that. My other usual answer is: I am certain enough that emitting CO2 is bad that we should stop burning fossil fuels.
However, extreme weather events by their very nature are not a good place to look for evidence because they are infrequent. In order to have certainty you have to have a lot of data. If I were to say global warming is making thunderstorms less intense as evidenced by the 2014 season, you would rightfully say that I'm jumping to conclusions even though there have been hundreds if not thousands of thunderstorms this year.
So again, global warming is a problem and we need to take action. Floods and droughts may be getting more severe, but I'm not convinced yet.


OK, thanks.

I have jumped the gun a little.
I'm pretty convinced, having taken all the data into account and with all the obvious changes I am seeing, that the Weather would be very hard pressed to maintain the status quo.

I expect to see more severe weather (hot, cold, dry, wet, extreme, all of it)
in the coming years.
I would be very surprised if the Weather is not affected by the Climate, and we seem to both agree that Climate is changing, somehow.

Quoting 16. NativeSun:
 
Sure we could blame it on climate change which it probably is, but its part of a natural change we have never experienced.
NativeSun,

Consider reading "Storms of My Grandchildren" by James Hansen and "Hell and High Water" by Joe Romm. Once you've mastered this material you'll be in absolutely no doubt that the global climate weirding we are experiencing is anything but natural.

You do not dump 30 gigatons of CO2 per annum into the atmosphere and have nothing happen. First of all, we are acidifying the ocean. This is not natural. Second, the planet has been warming for the 350th month in a row. This is not natural. In a naturally variable climate, we'd have an equal number of up months and down months.

Further, you might consider that any lingering doubt you might have on the topic has been the produce of a very devious propaganda campaign aimed at befuddling the public. Naomi Oreskes "Merchants of Doubt" will put to rest any residual doubts you have about the political nature of the FUD creators.

Consider spending a bit of time with Dr. Richard Alley, who is a compelling speaker on the topic of climate:


Quoting ricderr:
Would the Moderator that just banned me for no good reason from Dr. Roods blog PLEASE take the time to explain to me WHY I was banned...


ban hammer has been rampant today....bloggers banned here this a.m.....personal sites banning bloggers...and now you on rood's blog.......i've had to work extra hard on being good this morn so as not to join the list


Reminds me of the phrase, "I have never broken any rules, yet I have been banned."

Oh well.
This should cheer everyone up; it's the daily image of the 12z GFS showing a tropical storm at 384 hours. It even gets into the Gulf this run:

Quoting Envoirment:


Actually it'll take ~60 years at that rate for a 1 inch rise in global sea levels. NOAA has said that sea level rise has been ~0.12 inches/year since 1992:

Since 1992, new methods of satellite altimetry (the measurement of elevation or altitude) indicate a rate of rise of 0.12 inches per year.


Link

So it's just the sea level increase from the melting of the ice, not including melting of other ice bodies/expansion due to warming and possible other things I've missed out.

Yes, I had come up with 58 years but I wasn't sure my calculation was correct. I realize that number is on top of all other contributors to sea level rise but it still seems incongruously small considering the amount of water that that those glaciers are expected to release. I guess the number assumes a melt rate lasting at least several centuries. If that turns out to be too conservative, that number is going to go up, and quickly.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
This should cheer everyone up; it's the daily image of the 12z GFS showing a tropical storm at 384 hours. It even gets into the Gulf this run:


The GFS seems to do this at the far end of every run. We'll see if it's still there at the end of something more reasonable, like 120 hours.

Quoting 29. LAbonbon:

Can someone assist me in re-learning how to post Youtube videos? barbamz walked me through it last year, but all that time off the blog seems to have eroded my memory bank :/

I know to hit 'Share', and copy the embed code, but then what? Paste as an image doesn't work, neither does simply pasting into the comment box.
I just learn this myself. Yes, hit share, copy the embed code (after making sure that you check the box that says you are using the old embed code), then just paste into the compostion box. Hit "preview comment" to see that the embed takes. Voila. You should be good to go. Others may know more about "Enable Plain Text" vs "Rich Text" as to difference in the system taking your input. For me it seems to work either way. Good luck! :)

See also: How do I insert You Tube videos into Weather Underground Blogs? See especially comment #2 and comment #6.
An area of disturbed weather has formed several hundred miles
south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for some gradual development of this
system over the next several days while it moves slowly westward to
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
Firestorm Brewing. Time lapse video from the roof of Stone Brewing Co. in Escondido, Ca. This was on Thursday May 15, day 2 of the fire taken before the order to evacuate. Thankfully, the awesome fire fighters held off the firestorm from this area.
Link
Quoting BarometerGirl:
Firestorm Brewing. Time lapse video from the roof of Stone Brewing Co. in Escondido, Ca. This was on Thursday May 15, day 2 of the fire taken before the order to evacuate. Thankfully, the awesome fire fighters held off the firestorm from this area.
Link
Scary stuff.
Well done, the FireFighters.

Bless them all;.
As far as global warming causing volcanoes to erupt, it's out there but not as out there as some may think.

old article that explains the theory

Quoting 35. pottery:


An inch in 10 years GLOBAL water level increase is pretty phenomenal, isn't it ?
In the past century we have had 8 inches of sea level rise averaged across the planet. This has been enough, along with projected sea level rise and increased downpours flooding rivers for the Netherlands to decide to take preventive action amounting to 16 Billion Euros in construction and polder abandonment costs up to 2028. 
Quoting MAstu:
My profession is catastrophe modeling... I analyze weather disasters all day long. My main point is about certainty. A lot of people on here don't pay enough attention to how much data is behind assumptions on the results of global warming. There are a gazillion studies with lots of data that global warming is happening and that the results will be very bad for us so we need to take action now. That doesn't mean that every prediction about bad things happening will come true and a lot of times the prudent thing to do is to wait and see.

Example: should we start building sea walls around NYC and Tampa? Should we abandon those places altogether? These decisions require certainty because they are very expensive and the money may better be used somewhere else.

I think I understand what you're saying, and I agree. There are two separate issues here - long term climate change and the weather we have today. It's easy, but oftentimes incorrect, to connect one with the other. If we had, say, 500 years of weather records, it wouldn't be difficult to nail these questions down. Unfortunately, we don't, so we are looking at relatively small slice of weather knowledge and assuming that encompasses all the extremes of weather man has ever experienced. I'm reluctant to assume that the floods in the Balkans are caused by global warming when we know there was a flood of at least equal proportions 100 years ago. I'm reluctant to attribute the current drought in California and Texas to global warming when both those states are, and always will be, prone to drought. I think we have to be careful about perceptions of weather compared to statistical evidence of weather. As you wrote, deciding what measures to take to combat weather extremes are costly, both to our pocketbooks and our society. We should take reasonable measures now to deal with known extremes plus a fudge factor, but it's going to be another 30 to 50 years before we have the stats to make bigger decisions.
Quoting 67. MAstu:

My profession is catastrophe modeling... I analyze weather disasters all day long. My main point is about certainty. A lot of people on here don't pay enough attention to how much data is behind assumptions on the results of global warming. There are a gazillion studies with lots of data that global warming is happening and that the results will be very bad for us so we need to take action now. That doesn't mean that every prediction about bad things happening will come true and a lot of times the prudent thing to do is to wait and see.

Example: should we start building sea walls around NYC and Tampa? Should we abandon those places altogether? These decisions require certainty because they are very expensive and the money may better be used somewhere else.

My apologies if I was offensive. Your point is very well taken. It will unravel in broad daylight because good money says fossil fuels are going nowhere. It is a history in the making where we look back and wonder WTH was everybody thinking. The human species for multitudes of reasons will not be prepared. As an analogy, everybody is to busy smoking cigarettes and arguing about the cancer studies.
The GFS seems to do this at the far end of every run. We'll see if it's still there at the end of something more reasonable, like 120 hours.

hey....gfs is just another weatherblogger....keep saying the same thing and one day you're right........i'm still waiting for that cat 5 to hit tampa so i can say i said it first
hey stormy...got you sats gfs temp run....here you go bubba

Quoting MAstu:
My profession is catastrophe modeling... I analyze weather disasters all day long. My main point is about certainty. ... These decisions require certainty because they are very expensive and the money may better be used somewhere else.

These decisions require understanding risk, not certainty. What do you do for a living again?
Quoting 71. Astrometeor:



Reminds me of the phrase, "I have never broken any rules, yet I have been banned."

Oh well.


I quoted a very offensive word/post and called out its owner.. should have just called him out without the quote.. learned.. sorry I caused staff problems.
Quoting ricderr:
hey stormy...got you sats gfs temp run....here you go bubba



Ruh Roh, are those 100's? lol Looks like 80s to me. Thanks for the update :o)
Quoting rayduray2013:

In the past century we have had 8 inches of sea level rise averaged across the planet. This has been enough, along with projected sea level rise and increased downpours flooding rivers for the Netherlands to decide to take preventive action amounting to 16 Billion Euros in construction and polder abandonment costs up to 2028. 

From the link -

“There was not a big need to show a cost-benefit,” says Jaap Flikweert, an engineer at Royal Haskoning DHV. “There was a lot of vision: it's very Dutch.”

Therein lies the difference. The Netherlands is a small country that's 25% below sea level. They have been trying to live with this for centuries. I think there's a shared consciousness about these issues. By comparison, there was general agreement, after Katrina, the much of the New Orleans is indefensible to any large hurricane. There were a lot of proposals about abandoning some areas of the city and allowing the river room to spread out in a flood. To my knowledge, the response had been to build bigger levees. I'm not saying we can't learn from the Dutch, but we are two separate countries with two very different cultures.
42. LAbonbon

Here ya go....

I quoted a very offensive word/post and called out its owner.. should have just called him out without the quote.. learned.. sorry I caused staff problems.


that's ok..you can join the bad boys club now
88. StormTrackerScott
11:35 AM MDT on May 19, 2014



SCOTTY YOUR BACK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

WHEW....we really missed you around here...glad to see you found your way back here
From the previous blog:

Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Sunday reading:

*** Climate change lawsuits filed against some 200 US communities

Quoting bappit:

That's an interesting one indeed.

"Farmers Insurance filed nine class actions last month against nearly 200 communities in the Chicago area. It is arguing that local governments should have known rising global temperatures would lead to heavier rains and did not do enough to fortify their sewers and stormwater drains."


I suppose they could argue they weren't certain. Of course, the law suits might be thrown out on unrelated issues.
Hey didn't get a chance to thank people for commenting on the Vietnam climate change thing on Saturday since I had to attend a party. Learned a few things about Vietnam from you guys (especially Gro, Sar, Yonza, SP, and DevilsAdvocate). It's amazing how much I've learned on this blog since being here so thank you. Unfortunately the only compliments I've gotten for being so smart were at the party warning me about my smart mouth after a few Jack and Cokes on Saturday! And that was from the host! XD
.....Anyways Happy Monday All!
Quoting 83. ricderr:
The GFS seems to do this at the far end of every run. We'll see if it's still there at the end of something more reasonable, like 120 hours.

hey....gfs is just another weatherblogger....keep saying the same thing and one day you're right........i'm still waiting for that cat 5 to hit tampa so i can say i said it first


Taz will say he said it first.

I thought the GFS was improved 2 years ago. What happened ? It appears not to perform well for tropical systems. You think?
Quoting 25. yonzabam:



All climate change has a physical mechanism behind it. Scientists say the current warming is due to greenhouse gases. If you disagree, it's up to you to provide an alternative mechanism.

They'll deny that too. Arguments from personal incredulity require no caveats and are ever so much more emotionally satisfying. There are lots of people who will simply refuse to take on board the severity of the problem until it lands on them personally in an unambiguous way, After that, they'll be too busy saving themselves to bother with any of this sciencey big picture stuff. And nothing that happens will have been their fault, see?
Quoting 92. ricderr:

88. StormTrackerScott
11:35 AM MDT on May 19, 2014



SCOTTY YOUR BACK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

WHEW....we really missed you around here...glad to see you found your way back here


Hmmm... Mighty suspicious post....

Still nice and breezy out here and the sun is shining. Enough to make the grass go bonkers after the last several days of rain.
I'm not sure how JB is seeing a Modoki.That option has long been gone.But JB likes to make things into a Hollywood movie.In order for him to get his doomsday east coast hurricane something has to let up....I'm not bashing here..But I just don't see us getting a modoki.If we do then I'll be the first to say I was wrong.But this looks traditional the way I'm seeing it.
Quoting 98. washingtonian115:
I'm not sure how JB is seeing a Modoki.That option has long been gone.But JB likes to make things into a Hollywood movie.In order for him to get his doomsday east coast hurricane something has to let up....I'm not bashing here..But I just don't see us getting a modoki.If we do then I'll be the first to say I was wrong.But this looks traditional the way I'm seeing it.


Hah! A new Syfy thriller:
Godzilla vs. Modoki!

It sounds like a name that can be given to a monster from Japan's Monster Island.
I thought the GFS was improved 2 years ago. What happened ? It appears not to perform well for tropical systems. You think?


isn't it a shame that the country that invented the science is now lagging behind other countries.....i posted from that as a fellow blogger asked me this morning if i had see it...so i finally did
Quoting 33. sar2401:


Did the writer get this correct? That's .017" per year. It would take ten years or so to see an inch of sea level rise. Isn't it supposed to be 43 mm?

You have entirely missed the lesson here, which is that *any* loss trend from such a huge source is big trouble, especially given that until very recently all indicators were that we wouldn't be seeing the start of this process for a long time to come.
Hmmm... Mighty suspicious post....

Still nice and breezy out here and the sun is shining. Enough to make the grass go bonkers after the last several days of rain.



nahhhhh.....just doing my welcome wagon duties.....here we'll see another 90 plus day and then tomorrow a storm from california will start making it's presence known...not much to do in the way of rain....a whopping tenth....but it will cool things down for a day or two
Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm not sure how JB is seeing a Modoki.That option has long been gone.But JB likes to make things into a Hollywood movie.In order for him to get his doomsday east coast hurricane something has to let up....I'm not bashing here..But I just don't see us getting a modoki.If we do then I'll be the first to say I was wrong.But this looks traditional the way I'm seeing it.

That's okay. It's hard to talk about JB without apologizing.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:



Quoting StormTrackerScott:

Scott, this is the actual NWS forecast for Orlando:

Thursday Sunny, with a high near 92. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph.
Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 72. South southeast wind around 5 mph.
Friday Sunny, with a high near 93. West southwest wind around 5 mph.
Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 73. West wind around 5 mph.
Saturday A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 92. West wind around 5 mph.
Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 72. East northeast wind around 5 mph.
Sunday A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 92. East wind around 5 mph.

It's going to be warm there, just as it's going to be warm here. The predicted temperatures are going to be 5-6 degrees above normal. The predicted high here for Friday is 91. The average is 83, so that's 8 degrees above normal. I could argue that we will have it worse than Orlando, but I won't. It's just going to be a typical warm spell. The GFS last week didn't do a good job of picking up what looks like a back door front for the weekend, and it appears it will moderate the high temperatures somewhat. However, since that's still five days out, I don't even know if that will come to pass. Shoot, it might hit 95 here and there. It might even hit 100 with the way things have gone lately. I'm just not comfortable with using models 10 days out to make predictions and then clinging to it, even as the reality begins to change.
Quoting 98. washingtonian115:

I'm not sure how JB is seeing a Modoki.That option has long been gone.But JB likes to make things into a Hollywood movie.In order for him to get his doomsday east coast hurricane something has to let up....I'm not bashing here..But I just don't see us getting a modoki.If we do then I'll be the first to say I was wrong.But this looks traditional the way I'm seeing it.


I agree but this El-Nino set up appears different as all the warmth in the Atlantic Basin is focusing across the SE Gulf and NW Caribbean. Gonna be interesting to see how this unfolds the next several months.
Quoting 105. sar2401:


Scott, this is the actual NWS forecast for Orlando:

Thursday Sunny, with a high near 92. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph.
Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 72. South southeast wind around 5 mph.
Friday Sunny, with a high near 93. West southwest wind around 5 mph.
Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 73. West wind around 5 mph.
Saturday A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 92. West wind around 5 mph.
Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 72. East northeast wind around 5 mph.
Sunday A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 92. East wind around 5 mph.

It's going to be warm there, just as it's going to be warm here. The predicted temperatures are going to be 5-6 degrees above normal. The predicted high here for Friday is 91. The average is 83, so that's 8 degrees above normal. I could argue that we will have it worse than Orlando, but I won't. It's just going to be a typical warm spell. The GFS last week didn't do a good job of picking up what looks like a back door front for the weekend, and it appears it will moderate the high temperatures somewhat. However, since that's still five days out, I don't even know if that will come to pass. Shoot, it might hit 95 here and there. It might even hit 100 with the way things have gone lately. I'm just not comfortable with using models 10 days out to make predictions and then clinging to it, even as the reality begins to change.


100's showing up across the FL Panhandle with mid 90's by you as well. It's not 10 days out. Try 5 days out. Wow some on here fight like its a GW post. It's just a darn temperature map!!

Quoting 43. sar2401:


I don't know. It seems the amount of ice melt they're predicting is also pretty phenomenal...

*That*'s the point. And this type of ice sheet collapse having no precedent in the record (past events were slow by comparison and involved somewhat different mechanisms), it's hard to put any sort of upper limit on speed of the process.
Quoting 106. StormTrackerScott:


I agree but this El-Nino set up appears different as all the warmth in the Atlantic Basin is focusing across the SE Gulf and NW Caribbean. Gonna be interesting to see how this unfolds the next several months.


And Florida is there - right in the middle.

I really think this year could be a problem for Florida.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I agree but this El-Nino set up appears different as all the warmth in the Atlantic Basin is focusing across the SE Gulf and NW Caribbean. Gonna be interesting to see how this unfolds the next several months.

That would be a byproduct of the -AMO pattern we are in this year. Sea surface temperatures in the western Atlantic are still anomalously warm compared to other -AMO years though.

Still, as many have said the past few weeks, SSTs are just one part of the jigsaw puzzle which we call hurricane formation.
Quoting 36. Astrometeor:



[some bloggers here get sensitive when the topic switches to AGW/CC].

I think they need to be assisted to see the error of their views right here, however much they may dislike it.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm not sure how JB is seeing a Modoki.That option has long been gone.But JB likes to make things into a Hollywood movie.In order for him to get his doomsday east coast hurricane something has to let up....I'm not bashing here..But I just don't see us getting a modoki.If we do then I'll be the first to say I was wrong.But this looks traditional the way I'm seeing it.

A traditional El Niño would create the warmest year on record, and in his eyes, this would just be more fuel for the "alarmists conspiracy". Joe Bastardi is a knowledgable weather guy, but maybe not so much a climate guy.
Quoting 110. TropicalAnalystwx13:


That would be a byproduct of the -AMO pattern we are in this year. Sea surface temperatures in the western Atlantic are still anomalously warm compared to other -AMO years though.

Still, as many have said the past few weeks, SSTs are just one part of the jigsaw puzzle which we call hurricane formation.


Hi TA13, very interesting as this combined with El-Nino could "possibly" yield an interesting set up for this US. May not be many storms but the ones that form could be close to the US.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


100's showing up across the FL Panhandle with mid 90's by you as well.



That 100 looks near Pensacola. Interesting what the NWS forecasts says. Personally, i'd go with this forecast.

Friday Sunny, with a high near 88. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon.
Friday Night Clear, with a low around 70.
Saturday Sunny, with a high near 88.
Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 70.
Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 87.

Link
i found a new toy on the noaa site


You post a temp map showing mid to upper 90's and some seem to think it has reference to GW. I think some on here need to take a step back and relax. If you don't like me posting models then ignore me and I will do the same to you as this riffraft is for the birds already.

Quoting 44. jpsb:



IMHO an inch every ten years from Antarctica is significant, not catastrophic, if true. But if the trend is positive ........

If this is a new satellite and it seems to be, then calibration errors might be in play. I've read it takes a few years to work out all the bugs. There are other satillites keeping en eye on the Antarctic, let's see if they agree with these observations.

You read lots of things, and you don't take care to try to know which are right and which are wrong. I'd suggest you look up the details, but based on your past record all you'll do is go to some denialist blog or another and find an affirming assertion from someone just as ignorant as you.
Quoting 97. Dakster:



Hmmm... Mighty suspicious post....

Still nice and breezy out here and the sun is shining. Enough to make the grass go bonkers after the last several days of rain.


its only suspicious to those who haven't guess it yet..
Quoting 116. StormTrackerScott:

You post a temp map showing mid to upper 90's and some seem to think it has reference to GW. I think some on here need to take a step back and relax. If you don't like me posting models then ignore me and I will do the same to you as this riffraft is for the birds already.




just put him on ignore or dont respond..next thing you know you will be called trash if you keep going back and forth with him..
Quoting rayduray2013:

I was puzzling over something different. I was wondering if you've ever come across this fella down in your neck of the woods?



Tuscaloosa County is about 150 miles NW of me so I don't know of him or Hurricane Creek. It's nice to see the work dedicated volunteers do to help keep such waterways clear and free flowing. I'm happy to see the forest in that area is experiencing some recovery after taking a direct hit from an EF-5 in 2011. I wish I could feel better about that, but we had huge areas of forest devastated by the 2011 outbreak. Between the April 15 and April 27 events, we lost almost 205,000 acres of forest. Some of it, like the area around Hurricane Creek, was irreplaceable first growth forest. I realize this is the way nature works, but I still feel sad that, between the tornadoes and hurricanes of 2004-2005, there will be generations of Alabamians who will never know what a real, mature forest looks like.
Quoting spbloom:

You read lots of things, and you don't take care to try to know which are right and which are wrong. I'd suggest you look up the details, but based on your past record all you'll do is go to some denialist blog or another and find an affirming assertion from someone just as ignorant as you.

Hard to know when to let people spout gibberish willy nilly and when to reply.
Quoting 112. TropicalAnalystwx13:


A traditional El Niño would create the warmest year on record, and in his eyes, this would just be more fuel for the "alarmists conspiracy". Joe Bastardi is a knowledgable weather guy, but maybe not so much a climate guy.
Good post...I have news for Bastardi...This will not be a Modiki El-Nino....Not even close.
Quoting 119. ncstorm:



just put him on ignore or dont respond..next thing you know you will be called trash if you keep going back and forth with him..


Iggy has been successfully updated.
Quoting ricderr:
i found a new toy on the noaa site




Thats cool. Here is Thursday and Sunday. 80s in the Panhandle, lower 90s CFL.




Quoting 119. ncstorm:



just put him on ignore or dont respond..next thing you know you will be called trash if you keep going back and forth with him..


Hi ncstorm, feel free to post NC stuff on my blog too. I like to see whats going on weather wise by you and TA13.
Quoting 81. sar2401:


I think I understand what you're saying, and I agree. There are two separate issues here - long term climate change and the weather we have today. It's easy, but oftentimes incorrect, to connect one with the other. If we had, say, 500 years of weather records, it wouldn't be difficult to nail these questions down. Unfortunately, we don't, so we are looking at relatively small slice of weather knowledge and assuming that encompasses all the extremes of weather man has ever experienced. I'm reluctant to assume that the floods in the Balkans are caused by global warming when we know there was a flood of at least equal proportions 100 years ago. I'm reluctant to attribute the current drought in California and Texas to global warming when both those states are, and always will be, prone to drought. I think we have to be careful about perceptions of weather compared to statistical evidence of weather. As you wrote, deciding what measures to take to combat weather extremes are costly, both to our pocketbooks and our society. We should take reasonable measures now to deal with known extremes plus a fudge factor, but it's going to be another 30 to 50 years before we have the stats to make bigger decisions.

This reasoning reminds of the Sea of Holes in the Yellow Submarine movie.
Quoting 109. rmbjoe1954:



And Florida is there - right in the middle.

I really think this year could be a problem for Florida.
Yep...And next year.
Thanks for the New Post Dr. Masters, ++
How refreshing now that the iggy process has been done. I hate putting people on iggy and have never done that before until now. I like everyone on here but 2 individuals are driving me crazy lately.
Quoting 67. MAstu:

My profession is catastrophe modeling... Example: should we start building sea walls around NYC


Sea walls would not be the solution for New York Harbor. Were one to set protective barriers there would be three entrances to the harbor to be addressed. Something along the lines of the solution used at Rotterdam Harbor would probably cost less than the $68 Billion in losses generated by Hurricane Sandy. A judicious retreat from Lower Rockaway and parts of Staten Island would be sensible.

***
I'm curious, have you modeled the California Central Valley should there be a repeat of the Great Flood of 1862? I've got a suspicion this could be a $100 Billion event, considering the crazy way subdivisions have been thrown behind 100-150 year old levees built to who-knows-what-kind of standards.
Quoting 82. Wolfberry:


My apologies if I was offensive. Your point is very well taken. It will unravel in broad daylight because good money says fossil fuels are going nowhere. It is a history in the making where we look back and wonder WTH was everybody thinking. The human species for multitudes of reasons will not be prepared. As an analogy, everybody is to busy smoking cigarettes and arguing about the cancer studies.

What many of us are thinking is, to quote MAstu, "These decisions require certainty because they are very expensive and the money may better be used somewhere else."

It's very strange for someone with the credentials MAstu claims to make such an assertion, as anyone in that field would know that certainty isn't possible.

Quoting 109. rmbjoe1954:



And Florida is there - right in the middle.

I really think this year could be a problem for Florida.


Southern Florida needs a break.. a drought would be ideal for our estuary. Last discharge events (Frances/Jeanne/Wilma) took fully five years for the estuary to recover.. with an el Nino, our chances of rain go up...

On that subject, Amanda Allen, and film crew of the Weather Channel will be here tomorrow to ride aboard my Patrol Boat along with Doctor Edie Widder E.D. and lead scientist of Ocean Research and Conservation Association to discuss Okeechobee discharges into the Indian River lagoon, and Caloosahatchee Rivers. Over 5 months more than 800 billion gallons of water was discharged to tide to protect a glutted sugar crop. My side.. Indian River lagoon, got some 136 billion gallons from Okeechobee Lake that included the illegal gifts of 622 metric tons of Nitrogen, 65 metric tons of phosphorus, and 6800 metric tons of suspended sediment... all this came through and killed the southern end, and where the study was done, of what USED to be the most diverse estuary in North America, and the most diverse fishery in the new world. We "used" to have more than 800 specie of fish inside a 10 mile radius... after 5 months of killing loads of polluted fresh water, we lost much. Our citizens could not even "touch" the water for 5 months. We call it our "lost summer" I got bacterial infections twice from taking scientists and reporters out in my boat.. THEN I got Dengue fever.. tough summer for Marty too. :)
Quoting 132. indianrivguy:


Southern Florida needs a break.. a drought would be ideal for our estuary. Last discharge events (Frances/Jeanne/Wilma) took fully five years for the estuary to recover.. with an el Nino, our chances of rain go up...

on that subject, Amanda Allen, and film crew of the Weather Channel will be here tomorrow to ride aboard my Patrol Boat along with Doctor Edie Widder E.D. and lead scientist of Ocean Research and Conservation Association to discuss Okeechobee discharges into the Indian River lagoon, and Caloosahatchee Rivers. Over 5 months more than 800 billion gallons of water was discharged to tide to protect a glutted sugar crop. My side.. Indian River lagoon, got some 136 billion gallons from Okeechobee Lake that included the illegal gifts of 622 metric tons of Nitrogen, 65 metric tons of phosphorus, and 6800 metric tons of suspended sediment... all this came through and killed the most diverse estuary in North America, and the most diverse fishery in the new world. We "used" to have more than 800 specie of fish inside a 10 mile radius... after 5 months of killing loads of polluted fresh water, we lost much. Our citizens could not even "touch" the water for 5 months. We call it our "lost summer" I got bacterial infections twice from taking scientists and reporters out in my boat.. THEN I got Dengue fever.. tough summer for Marty too. :)


I really do not know the 'healing process' but I bet it will take decades for the Lagoon to regenerate back to a healthy estuary.
Quoting 132. indianrivguy:

Brother really appreciate the work you do. You are an inspiration to me as I know to many others..
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
You post a temp map showing mid to upper 90's and some seem to think it has reference to GW. I think some on here need to take a step back and relax. If you don't like me posting models then ignore me and I will do the same to you as this riffraft is for the birds already.



I feel like I am missing something. Not a post here has done anything like you're accusing.

But, maybe that's me.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


100's showing up across the FL Panhandle with mid 90's by you as well. It's not 10 days out. Try 5 days out. Wow some on here fight like its a GW post. It's just a darn temperature map!!


Scott, you post a temperature map from a model. I posted the predicted temperatures from the NWS. At five days out, I'm assuming they are looking at all the models to come up with their forecast. I don't need to look at a model any longer. I pay, through my tax dollars, to have people a lot smarter than me do that. My post was based on the fact you decided to post a forecast from a TV station that supported you. I just posted what the NWS is forecasting. It's not an attack, just facts.
Quoting 121. bappit:


Hard to know when to let people spout gibberish willy nilly and when to reply.

Indeed.
Quoting 131. spbloom:


What many of us are thinking is, to quote MAstu, "These decisions require certainty because they are very expensive and the money may better be used somewhere else."

It's very strange for someone with the credentials MAstu claims to make such an assertion, as anyone in that field would know that certainty isn't possible.



The certainty is Death by a Thousand Cuts..
Quoting 103. bappit:


That's okay. It's hard to talk about JB without apologizing.


ROFLMAO -- And only 'cause its true.


Ricderr - OK - I hope you two play nice though.
The gulf is seasonally cool at the moment, while the pacific picks up the heat.


Quoting 129. StormTrackerScott:

How refreshing now that the iggy process has been done. I hate putting people on iggy and have never done that before until now. I like everyone on here but 2 individuals are driving me crazy lately.

Hey Scott was just going to post after reading the back end of the last blog..man don't let em get to you..you are a great asset here and better most times than a double shot of espresso ..next Fosters on me..
Quoting 133. rmbjoe1954:



I really do not know the 'healing process' but I bet it will take decades for the Lagoon to regenerate back to a healthy estuary.


I seriously doubt it will ever recover to what it once was... but I am hoping I can help make a meaningful difference in its health and vitality before I croak. As a Florida Pioneer Historian, I am acutely aware of what it once was, my family has been on it since 1868, and Col. Pierce, as in Ft. Pierce, is a Cousin.

Thank you for the kind words Wolfberry!
Quoting 130. rayduray2013:



***
I'm curious, have you modeled the California Central Valley should there be a repeat of the Great Flood of 1862? I've got a suspicion this could be a $100 Billion event, considering the crazy way subdivisions have been thrown behind 100-150 year old levees built to who-knows-what-kind of standards.

They've modeled (although not yet completely IIRC) something called an ARkstorm scenario, but that's a smaller event than 1862. I asked one of the principals why and was told it's because there's no way to prepare for an 1862-scale event. $100 billion might be low-balling it.
Quoting 141. Wolfberry:


Hey Scott was just going to post after reading the back end of the last blog..man don't let em get to you..you are a great asset here and better most times than a double shot of espresso ..next Fosters on me..


I have 2 at home waiting for me after work and after I take my too little ones to swim class. One is 9 mos and the other is 23 months. Great class for little kids as pool drowning is one of the leading causes of toddler deaths in FL.

Quoting 120. sar2401:


Tuscaloosa County is about 150 miles NW of me so I don't know of him or Hurricane Creek.
Thanks. :)
Quoting sar2401:

Scott, you post a temperature map from a model. I posted the predicted temperatures from the NWS. At five days out, I'm assuming they are looking at all the models to come up with their forecast. I don't need to look at a model any longer. I pay, through my tax dollars, to have people a lot smarter than me do that. My post was based on the fact you decided to post a forecast from a TV station that supported you. I just posted what the NWS is forecasting. It's not an attack, just facts.


I just stick with the NWS graphics and forecasts. I've tried to reason with him but unfortunately he's set on his high temp forecasts. All is well though, it is a weather blog indeed :o) I'm done posting temps, its getting old. I'll just make sure i post the actual highs so we all know the NWS was spot on next week.
Quoting 132. indianrivguy:



Southern Florida needs a break.. a drought would be ideal for our estuary. Last discharge events (Frances/Jeanne/Wilma) took fully five years for the estuary to recover.. with an el Nino, our chances of rain go up...

On that subject, Amanda Allen, and film crew of the Weather Channel will be here tomorrow to ride aboard my Patrol Boat along with Doctor Edie Widder E.D. and lead scientist of Ocean Research and Conservation Association to discuss Okeechobee discharges into the Indian River lagoon, and Caloosahatchee Rivers. Over 5 months more than 800 billion gallons of water was discharged to tide to protect a glutted sugar crop. My side.. Indian River lagoon, got some 136 billion gallons from Okeechobee Lake that included the illegal gifts of 622 metric tons of Nitrogen, 65 metric tons of phosphorus, and 6800 metric tons of suspended sediment... all this came through and killed the southern end, and where the study was done, of what USED to be the most diverse estuary in North America, and the most diverse fishery in the new world. We "used" to have more than 800 specie of fish inside a 10 mile radius... after 5 months of killing loads of polluted fresh water, we lost much. Our citizens could not even "touch" the water for 5 months. We call it our "lost summer" I got bacterial infections twice from taking scientists and reporters out in my boat.. THEN I got Dengue fever.. tough summer for Marty too. :)

Very interesting. Any media coverage/links? I vaguely recall predictions of some pretty bad consequences back when the deals were cut for sugar to go big. Was this sort of thing among them?
I can hear Texans and Oklahomans cheering in the distance.

Quoting 16. NativeSun:

I pray we are not trying to alter the weather through HARRP or Chem Trails as we as a species are not intelligent enough to know the outcome of these experiments.
We are conducting the largest and possibly most dangerous experiment the world has ever seen, altering the parameters of the air, the oceans, and the land, in order to see if we can live higher, cheaper, and longer. Unfortunately, the results of the experiment, although confidently predicted by science, are not accepted by the experimenters, so the experiment continues even as we push the earth systems over a figurative cliff. The worst part is that the experimenters will never accept that the failure of the earth systems to continue to support humanity in the manner to which it has become accustomed was caused by their flawed experimental design.
Lots of thunderstorms running up the UK and possibly some big ones from France crossing the Channel. The storm cluster over SW Scotland is producing a lot of lightning and inch/hour rain about 10 miles south of here - we'll probably get brushed with its east flank in 15 minutes time.

Quoting westscotweather:
Lots of thunderstorms running up the UK and possibly some big ones from France crossing the Channel. The storm cluster over SW Scotland is producing a lot of lightning and inch/hour rain about 10 miles south of here - we'll probably get brushed with its east flank in 15 minutes time.


Sounds like pretty exciting stuff for Scotland. What does your equivalent of the SPC have to say about the situation?
Quoting indianrivguy:


Southern Florida needs a break.. a drought would be ideal for our estuary. Last discharge events (Frances/Jeanne/Wilma) took fully five years for the estuary to recover.. with an el Nino, our chances of rain go up...

On that subject, Amanda Allen, and film crew of the Weather Channel will be here tomorrow to ride aboard my Patrol Boat along with Doctor Edie Widder E.D. and lead scientist of Ocean Research and Conservation Association to discuss Okeechobee discharges into the Indian River lagoon, and Caloosahatchee Rivers. Over 5 months more than 800 billion gallons of water was discharged to tide to protect a glutted sugar crop. My side.. Indian River lagoon, got some 136 billion gallons from Okeechobee Lake that included the illegal gifts of 622 metric tons of Nitrogen, 65 metric tons of phosphorus, and 6800 metric tons of suspended sediment... all this came through and killed the southern end, and where the study was done, of what USED to be the most diverse estuary in North America, and the most diverse fishery in the new world. We "used" to have more than 800 specie of fish inside a 10 mile radius... after 5 months of killing loads of polluted fresh water, we lost much. Our citizens could not even "touch" the water for 5 months. We call it our "lost summer" I got bacterial infections twice from taking scientists and reporters out in my boat.. THEN I got Dengue fever.. tough summer for Marty too. :)



Respect to you, Sir.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I can hear Texans and Oklahomans cheering in the distance.



Yep and they sure do need it, it would fall on the hardest hit areas.


Quoting 142. indianrivguy:



I seriously doubt it will ever recover to what it once was... but I am hoping I can help make a meaningful difference
Thanks for your report on Indian River. I'm aware of it because you are blessed with the best grapefruit on the planet. Sadly, we don't seem to find them here in Oregon like we once did. I hope you continue to post about the trip tomorrow and the possibility of a video coming from the Weather Channel down the road.
Quoting 132. indianrivguy:



Southern Florida needs a break.. a drought would be ideal for our estuary. Last discharge events (Frances/Jeanne/Wilma) took fully five years for the estuary to recover.. with an el Nino, our chances of rain go up...

On that subject, Amanda Allen, and film crew of the Weather Channel will be here tomorrow to ride aboard my Patrol Boat along with Doctor Edie Widder E.D. and lead scientist of Ocean Research and Conservation Association to discuss Okeechobee discharges into the Indian River lagoon, and Caloosahatchee Rivers. Over 5 months more than 800 billion gallons of water was discharged to tide to protect a glutted sugar crop. My side.. Indian River lagoon, got some 136 billion gallons from Okeechobee Lake that included the illegal gifts of 622 metric tons of Nitrogen, 65 metric tons of phosphorus, and 6800 metric tons of suspended sediment... all this came through and killed the southern end, and where the study was done, of what USED to be the most diverse estuary in North America, and the most diverse fishery in the new world. We "used" to have more than 800 specie of fish inside a 10 mile radius... after 5 months of killing loads of polluted fresh water, we lost much. Our citizens could not even "touch" the water for 5 months. We call it our "lost summer" I got bacterial infections twice from taking scientists and reporters out in my boat.. THEN I got Dengue fever.. tough summer for Marty too. :)
Florida is being polluted at an alarming rate. The more people that move there just adds to the problem. There were 6 million living in the state when I was born, almost 20 million now, mostly along the coast. That will not be the case much longer, as sea levels will rise and force people to abandon structures along the coast. This will come off as irrational and far fetched to some. I lived on the shore there for over 40 years, and I do know what will happen.
Quoting CaneFreeCR:
em>We are conducting the largest and possibly most dangerous experiment the world has ever seen, altering the parameters of the air, the oceans, and the land, in order to see if we can live higher, cheaper, and longer. Unfortunately, the results of the experiment, although confidently predicted by science, are not accepted by the experimenters, so the experiment continues even as we push the earth systems over a figurative cliff. The worst part is that the experimenters will never accept that the failure of the earth systems to continue to support humanity in the manner to which it has become accustomed was caused by their flawed experimental design.


I think this needs repeating, regularly.
Nice post, IMHO.

Quoting 143. spbloom:


They've modeled (although not yet completely IIRC) something called an ARkstorm scenario, but that's a smaller event than 1862. I asked one of the principals why and was told it's because there's no way to prepare for an 1862-scale event. $100 billion might be low-balling it.
Thanks. I hadn't realized how severe the financial losses could be. $725 Billion estimated. That seems to me to be real money.
Quoting 156. pottery:



I think this needs repeating, regularly.
Nice post, IMHO.



Just give it to Patrap. He reposts stuff, over and over and over and over again...
160. wxmod
Satellite false color image of the Aleutian Islands.

It's a bit jerky, but some parts of this supercell time-lapse out of Wyoming are pretty spectacular:

Quoting 161. Neapolitan:

It's a bit jerky, but some parts of this supercell time-lapse out of Wyoming are pretty spectacular:




Looks like a giant foot.
Quoting 149. CaneFreeCR:

We are conducting the largest and possibly most dangerous experiment the world has ever seen, altering the parameters of the air, the oceans, and the land, in order to see if we can live higher, cheaper, and longer. Unfortunately, the results of the experiment, although confidently predicted by science, are not accepted by the experimenters, so the experiment continues even as we push the earth systems over a figurative cliff. The worst part is that the experimenters will never accept that the failure of the earth systems to continue to support humanity in the manner to which it has become accustomed was caused by their flawed experimental design.




Quoting 109. rmbjoe1954:



And Florida is there - right in the middle.

I really think this year could be a problem for Florida.


What information are you using to draw that conclusion? (Just curious, trying to learn more)
Quoting 147. spbloom:


Very interesting. Any media coverage/links? I vaguely recall predictions of some pretty bad consequences back when the deals were cut for sugar to go big. Was this sort of thing among them?


I honestly do not know where to start... well, yes I do.. stop the sugar subsidies, and sugar is out of business in Florida overnight. Sugar.. ag, OWNS Florida's elected government. Last year, under pressure to stop polluting from the EPA, Florida responded by making pollution legal. Earthjustice, the St. Johns Riverkeeper, and Sierra Club of Florida are suing the state for removing our federally guaranteed clean water protections. Google up Okeechobee discharges, sugar subsidies and Florida, and Kingdom of Big Sugar by Marie Brenner. That's a good start.

Thanks for the kind words Pottery, Wolfberry and Ray..
Quoting 165. Weathergirlklein:


What information are you using to draw that conclusion? (Just curious, trying to learn more)


Judging by the current SST (sea surface temp) around the Florida peninsula a storm, if conditions are good, would get stronger over the warm water that could easily impact Florida. The eastern gulf as well as most of the Atlantic shows cooler sea surface temps that should prevent a stronger storm from forming.
Quoting Dakster:



Just give it to Patrap. He reposts stuff, over and over and over and over again...

LOL. Here, have a Fresca...
Quoting 166. indianrivguy:


I honestly do not know where to start... well, yes I do.. stop the sugar subsidies, and sugar is out of business in Florida overnight. Sugar.. ag, OWNS Florida's elected government. Last year, under pressure to stop polluting from the EPA, Florida responded by making pollution legal. Earthjustice, the St. Johns Riverkeeper, and Sierra Club of Florida are suing the state for removing our federally guaranteed clean water protections. Google up Okeechobee discharges, sugar subsidies and Florida, and Kingdom of Big Sugar by Marie Brenner. That's a good start.

Thanks for the kind words Pottery, Wolfberry and Ray..


Marty,
I too see no resolution to this crisis. And we all know that the population will continue to target the coastal regions (especially on the Treasure Coast) and with that growth comes all the impacts , new bridges,more septic tanks, more pollution that will just compound the problem. This is truly tragic. And King Sugar lives on.
Greenland will be far greater contributor to sea rise than expected

Greenland's icy reaches are far more vulnerable to warm ocean waters from climate change than had been thought, according to new research by UC Irvine and NASA glaciologists. The work, published today in Nature Geoscience, shows previously uncharted deep valleys stretching for dozens of miles under the Greenland Ice Sheet.

The bedrock canyons sit well below sea level, meaning that as subtropical Atlantic waters hit the fronts of hundreds of glaciers, those edges will erode much further than had been assumed and release far greater amounts of water.
Ice melt from the subcontinent has already accelerated as warmer marine currents have migrated north, but older models predicted that once higher ground was reached in a few years, the ocean-induced melting would halt. Greenland's frozen mass would stop shrinking, and its effect on higher sea waters would be curtailed.
"That turns out to be incorrect. The glaciers of Greenland are likely to retreat faster and farther inland than anticipated – and for much longer – according to this very different topography we've discovered beneath the ice," said lead author Mathieu Morlighem, a UCI associate project scientist. "This has major implications, because the glacier melt will contribute much more to rising seas around the globe."



Read more at: Link
Hi Pottery, I really don't know if anybody could convince me these are not natural changes as we have not been here long enough to record unusual weather events. The Earth may have cycles that occur every 10,000, 100,000, or 1,000,000 years. I just don't think we have been here long enough to make an educated conclusion. Maybe Grothar could help.
Quoting 171. NativeSun:
Hi Pottery, I really don't know if anybody could convince me these are not natural changes as we have not been here long enough to record unusual weather events. The Earth may have cycles that occur every 10,000, 100,000, or 1,000,000 years. I just don't think we have been here long enough to make an educated conclusion. Maybe Grothar could help.


Grothar:
Well he might have witnessed events ..perhaps as far back as 100,000 years?
173. wxmod

North Pole in upper left. MODIS satellite photo.

Quoting 166. indianrivguy:



I honestly do not know where to start... well, yes I do.. stop the sugar subsidies, and sugar is out of business in Florida overnight. Sugar.. ag, OWNS Florida's elected government. Last year, under pressure to stop polluting from the EPA, Florida responded by making pollution legal. Earthjustice, the St. Johns Riverkeeper, and Sierra Club of Florida are suing the state for removing our federally guaranteed clean water protections. Google up Okeechobee discharges, sugar subsidies and Florida, and Kingdom of Big Sugar by Marie Brenner. That's a good start.

Thanks for the kind words Pottery, Wolfberry and Ray..



Wait... You mean big business owns elected officials? Say it aint so...

Kidding aside, yes, that is one of the many issues - and has been for a long, long time in Florida.
Quoting NativeSun:
Hi Pottery, I really don't know if anybody could convince me these are not natural changes as we have not been here long enough to record unusual weather events. The Earth may have cycles that occur every 10,000, 100,000, or 1,000,000 years. I just don't think we have been here long enough to make an educated conclusion.
I know what you mean. For me personally, I really don't know if anybody could convince me dinosaurs ever existed as we have not been here long enough to record unusually large lizards. I mean, has anybody ever actually seen a T-Rex, or a triceratops, or a brontosaurus? Yea, "scientists" try to tell us the world was once full of bus-sized creatures, but I just don't think we have been here long enough to make an educated conclusion.

;-)
Quoting NativeSun:
Hi Pottery, I really don't know if anybody could convince me these are not natural changes as we have not been here long enough to record unusual weather events. The Earth may have cycles that occur every 10,000, 100,000, or 1,000,000 years. I just don't think we have been here long enough to make an educated conclusion. Maybe Grothar could help.


OK, I understand.

I tend to give a fair amount of credibility to the research (ice cores, tree rings, fossilised remains, and so on) that tends to show differently.

But in the meantime, to each his own.
Quoting 170. ColoradoBob1:

Greenland will be far greater contributor to sea rise than expected

Greenland's icy reaches are far more vulnerable to warm ocean waters from climate change than had been thought, according to new research by UC Irvine and NASA glaciologists. The work, published today in Nature Geoscience, shows previously uncharted deep valleys stretching for dozens of miles under the Greenland Ice Sheet.

The bedrock canyons sit well below sea level, meaning that as subtropical Atlantic waters hit the fronts of hundreds of glaciers, those edges will erode much further than had been assumed and release far greater amounts of water.
Ice melt from the subcontinent has already accelerated as warmer marine currents have migrated north, but older models predicted that once higher ground was reached in a few years, the ocean-induced melting would halt. Greenland's frozen mass would stop shrinking, and its effect on higher sea waters would be curtailed.
"That turns out to be incorrect. The glaciers of Greenland are likely to retreat faster and farther inland than anticipated – and for much longer – according to this very different topography we've discovered beneath the ice," said lead author Mathieu Morlighem, a UCI associate project scientist. "This has major implications, because the glacier melt will contribute much more to rising seas around the globe."



Read more at: Link

Thanks for the catch, Bob. Sadly I was expecting this one.
Tom Terry from WFTV said that some areas of the Orlando area could flirt with a 100 later this week. Much more at 5pm per Tom Terry.



I am Channel 9's Chief Meteorologist. Growing up in rural Oklahoma, I formed a special passion for weather and have spent my life pursuing all types of weather from tornadoes to hurricanes.

All of my training and experience were used during the devastating hurricane season of 2004. Hurricane Charley brought Central Florida its first hurricane in over 40 years, and was the most intense land falling tropical system I had ever covered. But it didn't stop there as Central Florida would be hit by two more hurricanes "Frances" and "Jeanne." They just wouldn't let up on us.

When I'm not working in Severe Weather Center 9, I enjoy spending time at home with my wife Selina and children Ryan and Kaitlyn. I also like to work on my Mustang and collect old horror movies.

tom t action b Tom Terry I graduated from the University of Oklahoma with a degree in Meteorology and I hold the "Seal of Approval" from the American Meteorological Society.
Quoting 62. MAstu:

Not where I was going with that. My other usual answer is: I am certain enough that emitting CO2 is bad that we should stop burning fossil fuels.
However, extreme weather events by their very nature are not a good place to look for evidence because they are infrequent. In order to have certainty you have to have a lot of data. If I were to say global warming is making thunderstorms less intense as evidenced by the 2014 season, you would rightfully say that I'm jumping to conclusions even though there have been hundreds if not thousands of thunderstorms this year.
So again, global warming is a problem and we need to take action. Floods and droughts may be getting more severe, but I'm not convinced yet.


Nothing like watching a little Russian Roulette play out, as long as you're not the one playing eh?

There are several studies that have been done in this area, and of course there is ongoing research as well. But more importantly, what will it take to convince you? How long are you willing to wait? Do we take action now, count our losses, and walk away or do we wait until we're spinning the cylinder?

We don't win this game. We've already placed our bets. It's either going to cost us now or it's going to cost us a lot more later.
Quoting 172. rmbjoe1954:



Grothar:
Well he might have witnessed events ..perhaps as far back as 100,000 years?
Gro was here long before the very first 100,000 years ever even existed...:)...He even knows how carbon was made and implemented into the boundless dimensions of the Universe....His age is the only thing infinity fears...
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Tom Terry from WFTV said that some areas of the Orlando area could flirt with a 100 later this week. Much more at 5pm per Tom Terry.


He probably didnt see this graphic:
Quoting 166. indianrivguy:



I honestly do not know where to start... well, yes I do.. stop the sugar subsidies, and sugar is out of business in Florida overnight. Sugar.. ag, OWNS Florida's elected government. Last year, under pressure to stop polluting from the EPA, Florida responded by making pollution legal. Earthjustice, the St. Johns Riverkeeper, and Sierra Club of Florida are suing the state for removing our federally guaranteed clean water protections. Google up Okeechobee discharges, sugar subsidies and Florida, and Kingdom of Big Sugar by Marie Brenner. That's a good start.

Thanks for the kind words Pottery, Wolfberry and Ray..


I certainly know how to google for such stuff, but was hoping for a pointer to something recent giving an overview of the problem (s).
A toasty period coming up for much of the US:

6-10
Quoting 183. Neapolitan:

A toasty period coming up for much of the US:

6-10


Tom Terry just said on the radio that some areas of C FL could flirt with 100 later this week. Not surprised as every model is showing 95 to 98 in Orlando Friday thru Sunday.
Quoting 2. Envoirment:

Thanks for the new blog! Really horrible what's going on over parts of Eastern Europe. And to think extreme weather like this could become the norm in another 20-30 years. :(

Just thought I'd bring this over from the previous blog too:

Esa's Cryosat mission sees Antarctic ice losses double

Antarctica is now losing about 160 billion tonnes of ice a year to the ocean - twice as much as when the continent was last surveyed.

The new assessment comes from Europe's Cryosat spacecraft, which has a radar instrument specifically designed to measure the shape of the ice sheet.

The melt loss from the White Continent is sufficient to push up global sea levels by around 0.43mm per year.

Scientists report the data in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

The new study incorporates three years of measurements from 2010 to 2013, and updates a synthesis of observations made by other satellites over the period 2005 to 2010.

Cryosat has been using its altimeter to trace changes in the height of the ice sheet - as it gains mass through snowfall, and loses mass through melting.


Read more here.



I do believe that weather like this is the norm now, not 20+ years from now.
Quoting 176. pottery:



OK, I understand.

I tend to give a fair amount of credibility to the research (ice cores, tree rings, fossilised remains, and so on) that tends to show differently.

But in the meantime, to each his own.
As do I....The fact is, even when the irrefutable evidence becomes blatantly obvious, there will be someone there to argue that it is wrong or fabricated in a attempt to force/legislate alternative energy down the public,s proverbial throat.
Quoting 154. rayduray2013:


Thanks for your report on Indian River. I'm aware of it because you are blessed with the best grapefruit on the planet. Sadly, we don't seem to find them here in Oregon like we once did. I hope you continue to post about the trip tomorrow and the possibility of a video coming from the Weather Channel down the road.


As we're seeing with wine grapes, just be patient and after a while you'll be able to grow your own grapefruit! :/
Hi Pottery, I understand the tree rings, core samples, etc. but do they show enough of a small scale event as a local flood or drought over a 100,000 year cycle and are they taking these samples from the area affected by these so called weather extremes? I believe in climate change, but I feel their is little we can do it until the corporations that run our governments change their views on climate change. One more thing, there is no way we will stop the planet from warming until we can stop the overpopulating of this planet. This planet was not made for 7 billion people and counting with the limited knowledge we have as a species.
Quoting 175. Neapolitan:

I know what you mean. For me personally, I really don't know if anybody could convince me dinosaurs ever existed as we have not been here long enough to record unusually large lizards. I mean, has anybody ever actually seen a T-Rex, or a triceratops, or a brontosaurus? Yea, "scientists" try to tell us the world was once full of bus-sized creatures, but I just don't think we have been here long enough to make an educated conclusion.

;-)


I know what you mean. "Scientists" and their "equipment". I mean, do they honestly expect me to believe that viruses and bacteria that need special "microscopes" to be seen are what makes me get sick? That doesn't even make sense! Even if there were things that small, we're like a trillion times bigger than them! There's no way something that tiny and insignificant could ever hurt us, let alone make us sick. They're obviously just making it up so they can get more government funding to line their pockets with. :D



Should be a nice day for graduation (Saturday).



Am in the process of writing a blog. Might get it out tomorrow if I focus on it.
Quoting 186. hydrus:

As do I....The fact is, even when the irrefutable evidence becomes blatantly obvious, there will be someone there to argue that it is wrong or fabricated in a attempt to force/legislate alternative energy down the public,s proverbial throat.


Or....a way for fat cat scientists to keep living large on the public dole....or....a way for the UN to take control, remove our freedom, and facilitate wealth distribution...

Any number of crazy scenarios seem more reasonable to some people than actually facing and acknowledging the real issues at hand.

I have no issues with someone questioning the science; it's the conspiracy theorists that drive me bonkers. Because, really, how do you argue with that?

Sea-level rise from polar ice melt finally quantified......This is a good site about Sea Level Rise...Link

The other day over 700 workers & today over 400 working in a Vietnamese shoe factory were poisoned when the temps rose to the point where the shoe glue gassed off & poisoned the workers which then needed hospitalized.

Quoting 146. StormWx:



... the NWS was spot on next week.


What about today?

NWS Melbourne had my high forecast at 81.

Bestcast~ Wunderground's forecast high was 83.

Actual high at my station so far today.. 88ºF.. There is another in Melbourne Village that topped out at 87.1º. Only the extreme coastal parts of Melbourne stayed anywhere near forecast.



Quoting 171. NativeSun:

Hi Pottery, I really don't know if anybody could convince me these are not natural changes as we have not been here long enough to record unusual weather events. The Earth may have cycles that occur every 10,000, 100,000, or 1,000,000 years. I just don't think we have been here long enough to make an educated conclusion. Maybe Grothar could help.


NativeSun,

Perhaps you missed my comment #70 above which was addressed to you. Here's a portion of that repeated:

Consider spending a bit of time with Dr. Richard Alley, who is a compelling speaker on the topic of paleo-climate:




If you PAY ATTENTION, you'll find that, yes, scientists are pretty damn clever at ferreting out what has happened with the climate over a considerable period of time measured in many hundreds of thousands of years. And we can be highly confident of their accuracy.

Furthermore, you seem a bit off the mark when it comes to understanding the science. Are you familiar with Milankovich Cycles? Yes/No. Because Milutin Milankovich has pretty well worked out the CERTAiN cycles that occur.... wait for it, in calculable cyclical repetition. There's no maybe about this:


[See the Milankovich Cycle link for an explanation of this graph.]

***
You also need to note that "(o)ne of the most remarkable aspects of the paleoclimate record is the
strong correspondence between temperature and the concentration of
carbon dioxide in the atmosphere observed during the glacial cycles of
the past several hundred thousand years. When the carbon dioxide
concentration goes up, temperature goes up. When the carbon dioxide
concentration goes down, temperature goes down.




Ray here. Why is this graph so scary? Because as you see this graph tops out at CO2 (300 ppm, parts per million) while today we are at 400 ppm and climbing! We are in uncharted territory that the planet hasn't experienced in the past 400,000 years. If you go back in the paleo record far enough, you'll find that the last time CO2 was at or above 400 ppm, there were palm trees in the Arctic. That's something to ponder, eh?
OK, a little ''googling'' shows this, for Trinidad&Tobago…..

Mean average Temps, 1960 - 1990 min. 24 C, max 26.9 C.

Mean average temps, 2013 min 29.9C max 30.5C

Those are big increases.
Today broke the record for max.temp again, 4th time in a week.

I have been interested in weather for about 45 years.
I really don't need to see Scientific Evidence to convince me, that in the past 20 years this small tropical island which is generally moderated by ocean breezes, has heated up.

And I have personally witnessed the effect that the local population has had on that.
Concrete, roofing, asphalt, clearing of forest, quarrying, draining of wetlands, paving of watercourses, and industrialisation have all created this situation.

So I believe that in this Island, we/man/they/them/us have caused the increase in our average temps.

I think the same is true for many places.

Rising sea surface temps have not helped, but we didn't cause that locally.
Quoting NativeSun:
Hi Pottery, I understand the tree rings, core samples, etc. but do they show enough of a small scale event as a local flood or drought over a 100,000 year cycle and are they taking these samples from the area affected by these so called weather extremes? I believe in climate change, but I feel their is little we can do it until the corporations that run our governments change their views on climate change. One more thing, there is no way we will stop the planet from warming until we can stop the overpopulating of this planet. This planet was not made for 7 billion people and counting with the limited knowledge we have as a species.


Good point.
But in the absence of any other information or data, I'll go with what I have.
Lol, Even spaceweather.com is getting pumped about the potential of the next El Nino.

SOMETHING BREWING IN THE PACIFIC? According to data from the NASA/French Space Agency Jason-2 satellite, something is brewing in the Pacific. Researchers say it could be a significant El Niño with implications for global weather and climate. Get the full story from Science@NASA.
Source

Quoting 187. spbloom:


As we're seeing with wine grapes, just be patient and after a while you'll be able to grow your own grapefruit! :/
It might be a while. A friend of mine owns a vineyard 30 miles up the road here in Central Oregon. Last December we had a hard freeze at -22 degrees F. He lost nearly every dang vine in the yard. Grapefruit might have to wait a millennium or so. :)
Quoting 188. NativeSun:

I understand the tree rings, core samples, etc. but do they show enough of a small scale event as a local flood or drought over a 100,000 year cycle and are they taking these samples from the area affected by these so called weather extremes?

But this shows you don't understand them very well.
Quoting 171. NativeSun:

Hi Pottery, I really don't know if anybody could convince me these are not natural changes as we have not been here long enough to record unusual weather events. The Earth may have cycles that occur every 10,000, 100,000, or 1,000,000 years. I just don't think we have been here long enough to make an educated conclusion. Maybe Grothar could help.


Well, I can a little bit. As you all know by now, I don't get into debates. But, it seems the many people are convinced that what we are experiencing is a normal cycle. Perhaps much of it is. I think by third grade, I knew of the violent and volatile nature of our planet. It is a chaotic planet in a chaotic universe.

One advantage I believe I have, is that I have lived in many different places for long periods of time. When I go back to them, conditions are not the same. I have been fortunate to actually have seen ice core sample over 500,000 old (and not when they occurred you twits :) The planet warms and cools and freezes and burns. With the combined information from one science to another, such as Anthropology, chemistry, geology, meteorolgy, we now are gathering more information that what is happening, may not necessarily be natural. In the limited data (and I say limited) which I have seen, the warming that has occurred in the past 200 years is unprecedented. Many odd climate changes have occurred such the the Maunder Minimum and Younger Dryas as we know from overwhelming evidence. However, just because one climate variation was caused by a natural variation, it does not negate the fact that perhaps another climate variation may be caused by something else.

The unfortunate situation with this topic has caused a polarization which is really unnecessary. I have used this analogy before. If one person tells me the sky is falling, I may smile. If a second person tells me the sky is falling, I become a little more interested. When a third person tells me the sky is falling, I look up.

Most of my life has been spent on the study of human behavior and some sciences. Do I agree with everything written about AGW, of course not? Am I skeptical of what is written in some obscure publication on either side of the argument? Yes.

My approach, when I am presented with a hypothesis or theory, is not to find everything incorrect about it. I try to understand why they thought it to be true. Yes, I am old. But I am old enough to know that I have been more wrong than right in my life. I have always listened to those who know more than I.

I certainly to not depend on a 30 year graph to tell me something I can see out my window.

We all inhabit the same planet. We all breath the same air. Maybe we should just find a more civil manner is which to solve a problem, which may affect us all.

By the way, as some of you do know, I drive a BMW 7 series and Mrs. Grothar has a Lincoln. I have no intention of driving a horse and buggy. I didn't like it 150 years ago and I certainly wouldn't like it now. I only ask they we all keep an open mind.

An old saying, "We aren't what we should be; we aren't what we are going to be; but at least we aren't what we were"
Quoting 144. StormTrackerScott:



I have 2 at home waiting for me after work and after I take my too little ones to swim class. One is 9 mos and the other is 23 months. Great class for little kids as pool drowning is one of the leading causes of toddler deaths in FL.


Has anyone been able to determine why they are excessively small?
Finally, a new page.

Ok, has anyone else seen this? Apparently, TWC is hosting a photo contest, with the grand prize being $15,000. That's a lot of money.
Quoting CarlitosAtun:


Has anyone been able to determine why they are excessively small?
The toddlers?

Sorry, couldn't resist. :-)
I know what we could get you, Gro. An electric scooter. Green (well, pink) and perfect for an old guy like you.

Quoting spbloom:

As we're seeing with wine grapes, just be patient and after a while you'll be able to grow your own grapefruit! :/


I can't get enough growing degree days to mature grapefruit in the DC area. Lemons (Improved Meyer) are reliable and I expect to be self sufficient in lemons from December-April in two years. Oranges are chancy, some years they are sour and some years they are very good. I don't know why yet. All are protected in my unheated garage during arctic outbreaks but otherwise winter outdoors. I can't safely lift more than 80 pounds so that's my max tree size.

This incidentally has been done by motivated hobbyists esp. in western Europe since the 17'th century. I'm not unique.
No bloom I do, and ray I'm not in this discussion debating co2 and it's effect on the planet. I was discussing localized events around the planet that are occurring and probably happened before as their is not a lot of knowledge about the weather. How far back have we been collecting reliable data on the weather? A couple hundred years and how long has their been weather on this planet. Ray what your PHD in? How about you Bloom, what's yours in? My degree is in biology, and I can copy and paste all the information that you put on this blog as so can anybody else. Have you actually done the research in this field? Unless you have and can prove it to me I will continue to be skeptical of all these extreme weather events as never happening before.
Got a BBQ this Saturday by the pool and weather looks fantastic, highs 90-92 inland and 80s near the beaches. Love the spring!

Quoting 201. MAstu:Volcanic Eruption

Thank you, Sir.
Quoting spbloom:

I certainly know how to google for such stuff, but was hoping for a pointer to something recent giving an overview of the problem (s).


Get rid of both sugar tariffs and subsidies. I agree. This is a scandal that sucks money in the form of higher food prices from most U.S residents, all to support a protected domestic industry of minimal national security value.
Quoting 189. Xyrus2000:



I know what you mean. "Scientists" and their "equipment". I mean, do they honestly expect me to believe that viruses and bacteria that need special "microscopes" to be seen are what makes me get sick? That doesn't even make sense! Even if there were things that small, we're like a trillion times bigger than them! There's no way something that tiny and insignificant could ever hurt us, let alone make us sick. They're obviously just making it up so they can get more government funding to line their pockets with. :D






Haven't you heard, its all a vast left wing anti-American conspiracy to take away our freedom, how I don't know, but I shared an image on facebook that says so, I am now worked up and upset, don't be a sheep, whatever that even means...
Quoting MAstu:
Volcanic Eruption


That is an awesome picture, thanks for sharing.
Quoting 204. FLwolverine:

The toddlers?

Sorry, couldn't resist. :-)


I understand that babies and toddlers are generally pretty small, I was just wondering what made these "too little"
Quoting 191. LAbonbon:



Or....a way for fat cat scientists to keep living large on the public dole....or....a way for the UN to take control, remove our freedom, and facilitate wealth distribution...

Any number of crazy scenarios seem more reasonable to some people than actually facing and acknowledging the real issues at hand.

I have no issues with someone questioning the science; it's the conspiracy theorists that drive me bonkers. Because, really, how do you argue with that?


Come on LA....Lets make fat cat comparisons and crunch monetary number amounts, from the well to do scientists slice of the pie , versus the vast amounts of almost unimaginable wealth big oil companies have enjoyed for over a century. Wealth is facilitated and distributed constantly, right into the top one percents bank accounts. Show me a list of the richest fat cat scientists , and I will show you the oil executive gross annual income list. The contrast is staggering..The U.N has as much chance of removing our rights, and our freedom, as Muamar Qaddafi has of winning the U.S. presidency. Taking issue on whether or not someone questions science is a mute point. Weeding out conspiracy regardless of status is human nature, and through process of elimination, people record what has truth and importance, and discard the rest.
Quoting 183. Neapolitan:

A toasty period coming up for much of the US:

6-10

Follow-up:

Quoting ColoradoBob1:
Greenland will be far greater contributor to sea rise than expected

Greenland's icy reaches are far more vulnerable to warm ocean waters from climate change than had been thought, according to new research by UC Irvine and NASA glaciologists. The work, published today in Nature Geoscience, shows previously uncharted deep valleys stretching for dozens of miles under the Greenland Ice Sheet.

The bedrock canyons sit well below sea level, meaning that as subtropical Atlantic waters hit the fronts of hundreds of glaciers, those edges will erode much further than had been assumed and release far greater amounts of water.
Ice melt from the subcontinent has already accelerated as warmer marine currents have migrated north, but older models predicted that once higher ground was reached in a few years, the ocean-induced melting would halt. Greenland's frozen mass would stop shrinking, and its effect on higher sea waters would be curtailed.
"That turns out to be incorrect. The glaciers of Greenland are likely to retreat faster and farther inland than anticipated – and for much longer – according to this very different topography we've discovered beneath the ice," said lead author Mathieu Morlighem, a UCI associate project scientist. "This has major implications, because the glacier melt will contribute much more to rising seas around the globe."



Read more at: Link

Just so we're clear on this, the study findings are not based on observations from ice penetrating radar nor satellite measurement data:

To reveal the full subterranean landscape, he designed a novel "mass conservation algorithm" that combined the previous ice thickness measurements with information on the velocity and direction of its movement and estimates of snowfall and surface melt.

The difference was spectacular. What appeared to be shallow glaciers at the very edges of Greenland are actually long, deep fingers stretching more than 100 kilometers (almost 65 miles) inland.

I have no idea if his conclusions are correct but "spectacular differences" normally require spectacular proof.


Quoting 161. Neapolitan:

It's a bit jerky, but some parts of this supercell time-lapse out of Wyoming are pretty spectacular:




Interesting to see such dramatic structure, but never even a hint of a funnel cloud.
Grothar, post 200.

Excellent.
I think I'll bookmark this one.

Thank you.
You may be old, (well, that's what they say around here) but your Wisdom is quite Formidable.
Quoting MAstu:
Volcanic Eruption

Epic picture there.
Thanks !
Neat vid provided by the lead author of new Greenland ice sheet study mentioned below:



The view with the ice missing resembles the Norwegian coast much more, with plenty of deep fjords extending inland, which would make sense. Previous papers on the Greenland ice sheet came to incorrect conclusions, but the fact that they did so because they didn't try to imagine into being something that couldn't be seen is a good insight into the scientific method. Unfortunately, it means that this new result is not only far from the first major unpleasant surprise from new data, it's very unlikely to be the last. Known unknowns like this are bad enough, but expect some more unknown unknowns as well.

I'm no expert, although I do read these papers, but my guess, recalling that as recently as 10 years ago the general understanding was that ice sheets wouldn't melt significantly for many centuries if not millennia, is that we're headed toward a minimum of 5 meters sea level rise by 2100.
Quoting 219. pottery:Epic picture there.
Thanks !

You can see where the heat/dust column runs up and snares the falling cool air as a cap.
Quoting 216. sar2401:


Just so we're clear on this, the study findings are not based on observations from ice penetrating radar nor satellite measurement data:

To reveal the full subterranean landscape, he designed a novel "mass conservation algorithm" that combined the previous ice thickness measurements with information on the velocity and direction of its movement and estimates of snowfall and surface melt.

The difference was spectacular. What appeared to be shallow glaciers at the very edges of Greenland are actually long, deep fingers stretching more than 100 kilometers (almost 65 miles) inland.

I have no idea if his conclusions are correct but "spectacular differences" normally require spectacular proof.

Yet another argument from personal incredulity. It's as if you're unaware of other recent papers measuring deep canyons into the heart of the Greenland ice sheet, which is why these results are no surprise. Oh, wait, you *are* unaware of those.
Quoting CarlitosAtun:


I understand that babies and toddlers are generally pretty small, I was just wondering what made these "too little"


Please tell me you're being sarcastic. He most probably meant "two little". Just a simple typo. I couldn't figure out for my life what you meant by post #202 until just now.

Quoting 207. NativeSun:

No bloom I do, and ray I'm not in this discussion debating co2 and it's effect on the planet.
Sorry, my mistake. I should have realized that when you brought up HAARP and chemtrails that our conversation would be irremediably wacky. I'll let you get back to attending to the tinfoil. :)

Bu Bye.
That was a solid two hours of storms passing through, you can see how the storms are training north-westwards:



Quoting Astrometeor:


Please tell me you're being sarcastic. He most probably meant "two little". Just a simple typo. I couldn't figure out for my life what you meant by post #202 until just now.
Not sarcastic, I think. We're all just trying to add a little humor. And yes, it probably was a typo.

Quoting 206. georgevandenberghe:


This incidentally has been done by motivated hobbyists esp. in western Europe since the 17'th century. I'm not unique.

George,

Out here in Central Oregon a typical tomato treatment is to put a couple five gallon buckets with the plants in a Radio Flyer and haul them in and out of the garage daily, even in July and August. :)
Quoting 214. hydrus:

Come on LA....Lets make fat cat comparisons and crunch monetary number amounts, from the well to do scientists slice of the pie , versus the vast amounts of almost unimaginable wealth big oil companies have enjoyed for over a century. Wealth is facilitated and distributed constantly, right into the top one percents bank accounts. Show me a list of the richest fat cat scientists , and I will show you the oil executive gross annual income list. The contrast is staggering..The U.N has as much chance of removing our rights, and our freedom, as Muamar Qaddafi has of winning the U.S. presidency. Taking issue on whether or not someone questions science is a mute point. Weeding out conspiracy regardless of status is human nature, and through process of elimination, people record what has truth and importance, and discard the rest.


hydrus, not sure if you realize I was being sarcastic in my post. 'Fat cat'scientists and UN takeover are two of my biggest pet peeves among the conspiracies bandied about. Many of us as a matter of course discard these ideas, but some people don't. Any time spent elsewhere on the web easily demonstrates this, unfortunately.

Quoting 210. georgevandenberghe:



Get rid of both sugar tariffs and subsidies. I agree. This is a scandal that sucks money in the form of higher food prices from most U.S residents, all to support a protected domestic industry of minimal national security value.

The biggest recipients of the sugar subsidy are the billionaire Fanjul brothers. Carl Hiassen wrote a satire about them a couple decades ago called "Strip Tease".
Quoting 207. NativeSun:

No bloom I do, and ray I'm not in this discussion debating co2 and it's effect on the planet. I was discussing localized events around the planet that are occurring and probably happened before as their is not a lot of knowledge about the weather. How far back have we been collecting reliable data on the weather? A couple hundred years and how long has their been weather on this planet. Ray what your PHD in? How about you Bloom, what's yours in? My degree is in biology, and I can copy and paste all the information that you put on this blog as so can anybody else. Have you actually done the research in this field? Unless you have and can prove it to me I will continue to be skeptical of all these extreme weather events as never happening before.

Yup, you copy and paste, and not too carefully. That's your problem.

If you actually cared about this, it would be easy enough for you to see what the scientific literature actually says on the subject. A good place to start is with relevant articles on realclimate.com, and for that matter IIRC Jeff and Ricky have both had plenty of posts on aspects of extreme weather changes.
Quoting 166. indianrivguy:

Thanks for the kind words Pottery, Wolfberry and Ray..


Indianrivguy, you are deserving of a lot more than kind words..ultimately it is all going to fall on itself..The sugar subsidies, fossil fuels, etc. There is really nothing to argue. Societies at large cannot sustain their voracious appetites of ineptitude spear heading their gluttony for greed..
STOP PRESS NEWS FLASH HEAR THIS etc etc.

Just got 2mm of rain.
That's the other nice thing about mm's. You can measure things that are really small%u2026%u2026.

Laters>>>>>>>>>>>
Quoting 213. CarlitosAtun:



I understand that babies and toddlers are generally pretty small, I was just wondering what made these "too little"

Enjoy them while you can! Too many, when they grow up, transform into bobblers and toadies. :/
Look at the rainfall anomaly in central Europe

Ray have a good day, still would like to know what your degree in climate science is since you criticize people so easily. And if you do have any kind of degree you would know most of the people that do have these degrees are always looking for a good conversation and challenges to the theories. I only brought up HARRP and Chem trails as they were part of an earlier conversation, I have no personal experience with either one as this is not what I was studying in school.
Come on bloom what's your degree in climate science. Please stop with the copy and paste. This is all I'll say to you going forward, have a nice day.
STS Scott -- I applaud you for drown proofing your kids. I did that with mine as well. We went to a pool and firefighters were running a school teaching that. It is good to do anywhere, but especially in areas like Florida where "everyone" has a backyard pool and lakes/ponds and canals are common and a lot of times not fenced off.

One of the worst calls you can get in my line of work is a small child drowning call... Especially when it could have been prevented.
How's your temps Dakster? topped out at 79.2 here.....
Anchorage Merrill, Alaska (Airport)
Updated: 1:53 PM AKDT on May 19, 2014
Scattered Clouds
57 °F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 26%
Dew Point: 22 °F
Wind: 17 mph from the NNW
Wind Gust: 26 mph
Quoting 225. westscotweather:

That was a solid two hours of storms passing through, you can see how the storms are training north-westwards:






We had a heck of a thunderstorm earlier this afternoon in NW-Wales, followed by a second wave in the early evening. It's quiet now, only a bit of rain left. I don't recall that we ever had such a strong storm in May. It went dark, torrential rain and some small hail fell and then a couple of lightning strikes hit the ground not too far away from my location. It was quite a strobo show. Yikes! I'm not used to spectacular weather like this.
Quoting 230. spbloom:


Yup, you copy and paste, and not too carefully. That's your problem.

If you actually cared about this, it would be easy enough for you to see what the scientific literature actually says on the subject. A good place to start is with relevant articles on realclimate.com, and for that matter IIRC Jeff and Ricky have both had plenty of posts on aspects of extreme weather changes.
Casting pearls before swine? :)

Yes, you certainly do recall correctly about Jeff and Ricky posting on novel weather that neither had experienced before.

Quoting Dr. Masters  from 2011: "Every year extraordinary weather events rock the Earth. Records that  have stood centuries are broken. Great floods, droughts, and storms affect millions of people, and truly exceptional weather events unprecedented in human history may occur. But the wild roller-coaster ride of incredible weather events during 2010, in my mind, makes that year the planet's most extraordinary year for extreme weather since reliable global upper-air data began in the late 1940s. Never in my 30 yearsas a meteorologist have I witnessed a year like 2010--the astonishing number of weather disasters and unprecedented wild swings in Earth's atmospheric circulation were like nothing I've seen."

Of course things got even wackier after 2010. Back then the jet stream was starting to come undone, but not like this comparison between May 20, 2010 and May 19, 2014 [Note: no May 19, 2010 data available in the archive.)






Ray here. This is a bit like interpreting a Rorschack test, but what I see is a certain sinuousness with excursions in the 2010 map while the 2014 map seems to show a lot less coherence and a lot more fragmentation to my eye. YMMV.
Quoting 240. PedleyCA:

How's your temps Dakster? topped out at 79.2 here.....


Currently 83, feels like 84. A little breezy out, which is good.
I've just checked the local news and I found out that today's storm caused some serious flash flooding and the lighting strike that I heard disrupted the rail service for several hours. It struck near the line and caused signalling problems. Read more here The pictures are quite amazing, especially the one where the water forces the manhole cover up.

Quoting 227. rayduray2013:


George,

Out here in Central Oregon a typical tomato treatment is to put a couple five gallon buckets with the plants in a Radio Flyer and haul them in and out of the garage daily, even in July and August. :)



And I thought I worked hard!
This should give a 5-10 degree night temperature boost in a dry climate like Central OR I would guess. Not as much in a humid cloudy climate. If the garage is heated of course the boost is larger.

Tomatoes taste pretty bad if exposed to consistent nights with temperatures below 50 when the fruit is ripe or close to it. This ends the season for me a few weeks before frost does unless frost is early
NASA's satellite captured the Balkans flooding.

Severe Flooding in the Balkans
NASA Earth Observatory, May 20, 2014


The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Aqua satellite captured an image of flooding in Croatia, Serbia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina on May 19, 2014. The second image shows the same area one year ago during a more typical spring. Turn on the image comparison tool to see the difference. See the other pic and the whole article by using the link above please.

BBC update on the situation: Balkan floods: 'Quarter of Bosnia' without clean water


Current lightning in Europe. Interesting how far north the action goes (Finland).

On a brighter side: Update about my adventures in Turkey is up if someone is interested. Good night folks. Have a nice evening everybody!
Quoting georgevandenberghe:


Get rid of both sugar tariffs and subsidies. I agree. This is a scandal that sucks money in the form of higher food prices from most U.S residents, all to support a protected domestic industry of minimal national security value.

The history of sugar in the CONUS is quite interesting. Prior to 1960, almost all US sugar came from Puerto Rico and Hawaii. Very little was raised in Florida and even less in Louisiana, the two biggest producing states today. Then came July, 1960, when the US realized Castro was not going to be our buddy. We slapped an embargo on imports from Cuba to the US, the biggest, by far, being sugar from sugarcane. At the same time, Castro began to nationalize the Cuban sugar industry, prompting many of the largest landholders to get while the getting was good and flee to the US. To their credit, many of them arrived nearly broke, but they were good business men and quickly established themselves in Florida's rapidly expanding sugar industry. On the darker side, they also brought with them the Cuban way of doing business. In the Batista days, they found a combination of spreading enough money around, mixed with threats of physical violence, worked efficiently to make sure that their companies were treated well. They found the same formula more or less worked here.

Fast forward to today. The US sugarcane industry is protected by preferential tariffs and a compliant legislature in Florida. The compliant part is not limited by party. Both Democrats and Republicans have been equal opportunity feeders at the campaign fund trough. The US, even while being the ninth largest sugarcane producer in the world, still only produces less than 2% of the world's sugarcane. There are two major sugarcane producers, US Sugar Corp and Florida Crystals. Between the two companies, they represent about 40% of Florida sugarcane production. US Sugar historically has been the "white" sugar company (no pun intended) while Florida Crystals is the name for the Fanul family empire, and the company most closely associated with the Cubans who fled here to produce sugarcane. Both companies are diversified conglomerates, owning everything from beach resorts to railroads. Agricultural price supports pretty much dictate the maximum and minimum prices that sugar can sell at, so both companies are more like a large cooperative than competitors. Both continue to be insulated from price shocks from imports by high tariffs.

I'm not familiar enough with all the environmental consequences of sugar production in Florida other than the climate really isn't suited to large scale sugarcane farming. Indianrivguy has a lot more data on that. I'm just a capitalist, and I'm against government subsidies and tariffs unless there's a vital national security interest. Sugar doesn't fall into that category. What I do know is that Florida sugar industry would collapse overnight if we normalized relations with Cuba and allowed the kinds of large scale imports that we did before 1960. President Obama made that one of his campaign promises. So far, it hasn't been fulfilled. It seems inevitable at some point that we will make political accommodation with Cuba and that they will become our main sugar supplier again. Cuban sugar production is down more than 50% since the fall of the former Soviet Union, their main trading partner. The only reason it hasn't totally collapsed is the Chinese, the fourth largest producers of sugarcane in the world, have a trade agreement with Cuba to help prop up one of their few Communist allies remaining on earth.

The main point is that, although it will be fought tooth and nail by Florida sugarcane producers, improved relations with Cuba are inevitable, as is the importation of low cost sugarcane sugar. In the long run, that may be the salvation of the Everglades. All this research is my own, BTW, not a bunch of cut and paste stuff from Google. Go ahead, look it up, I know you want to. :-)
Quoting taistelutipu:
I've just checked the local news and I found out that today's storm caused some serious flash flooding and the lighting strike that I heard disrupted the rail service for several hours. It struck near the line and caused signalling problems. Read more here The pictures are quite amazing, especially the one where the water forces the manhole cover up.



Wow, that looks Torrential !

Just had another 4mm here, and more to come from an area of cloud just to our S/E, part of the ITCZ which is coming closer as we get to June.
Rainy season is June-December here.
Quoting taistelutipu:
I've just checked the local news and I found out that today's storm caused some serious flash flooding and the lighting strike that I heard disrupted the rail service for several hours. It struck near the line and caused signalling problems. Read more here The pictures are quite amazing, especially the one where the water forces the manhole cover up.


Is that a public storm sewer in what appears to be a private backyard? It looks more like a private drain for the homeowner but I can't really tell.
Quoting 242. taistelutipu:



We had a heck of a thunderstorm earlier this afternoon in NW-Wales, followed by a second wave in the early evening. It's quiet now, only a bit of rain left. I don't recall that we ever had such a strong storm in May. It went dark, torrential rain and some small hail fell and then a couple of lightning strikes hit the ground not too far away from my location. It was quite a strobo show. Yikes! I'm not used to spectacular weather like this.

You may have to adapt to this kind of pre summer surprises as things ain't what they used to be.
Very nasty cold zone over the bay of Biscay and a lot of warm air over France.
Quoting sar2401:

Is that a public storm sewer in what appears to be a private backyard? It looks more like a private drain for the homeowner but I can't really tell.

My guess is that it's a private drain, connected to the town waste-water system.

It happens here too, with heavy rain.
Quoting pottery:


Wow, that looks Torrential !

Just had another 4mm here, and more to come from an area of cloud just to our S/E, part of the ITCZ which is coming closer as we get to June.
Rainy season is June-December here.

Did the rain cool things off any.? It's been partly to mostly cloudy here with cumulus and towering cumulus but we still managed to make it to 89.
Quoting 228. LAbonbon:



hydrus, not sure if you realize I was being sarcastic in my post. 'Fat cat'scientists and UN takeover are two of my biggest pet peeves among the conspiracies bandied about. Many of us as a matter of course discard these ideas, but some people don't. Any time spent elsewhere on the web easily demonstrates this, unfortunately.
My bad. I have seen so many comments about the big bad scientists superimposing there view of morality on people speeches, I reacted without hesitation....I apologize ...and will work on my uncontrolled responses regardless of content..:)
Quoting pottery:

My guess is that it's a private drain, connected to the town waste-water system.

It happens here too, with heavy rain.

That's what it looked like to me as well but I'm not familiar at all with how things are done in Wales. Certainly the sign of probably old and not very well maintained water water sewers.
Quoting sar2401:

Did the rain cool things off any.? It's been partly to mostly cloudy here with cumulus and towering cumulus but we still managed to make it to 89.

Yep, temps dropped from 91F to 81F by the time the rain passed.
Very nice. Strong squall.
Even lost power for 25 minutes, LOL.

Quoting 246. georgevandenberghe:


Tomatoes taste pretty bad if exposed to consistent nights with temperatures below 50 when the fruit is ripe or close to it. This ends the season for me a few weeks before frost does unless frost is early

That's interesting about night temps. Sadly, in June we can expect about 42 F. overnight. A little worse in September. The silver lining is that I don't need AC. Just open the windows at night and close them when the Sun's up during the dog days. The house stays nice and cool. :)
Quoting 240. PedleyCA:

How's your temps Dakster? topped out at 79.2 here.....


Currently 83, feels like 84. A little breezy out, which is good.
Quoting sar2401:

That's what it looked like to me as well but I'm not familiar at all with how things are done in Wales. Certainly the sign of probably old and not very well maintained water water sewers.

That's true.
Here, in the City, we have a real problem with all the food-places that have proliferated in the last 20 nears or so.
They dump their wastewater into the city sewers, and the grease in that water clogs the drains, big time.

I have a friend in Barbados, who makes good money clearing shower drains in the hotels.
At 11:00am, and at 5:00 pm, every tourist gets into the shower and washes off the sunscreen.
The build-up of congealed oils in the drain pipes soon causes problems.

Who would have thunk it, eh ?
260. jpsb
Quoting 246. georgevandenberghe:



And I thought I worked hard!
This should give a 5-10 degree night temperature boost in a dry climate like Central OR I would guess. Not as much in a humid cloudy climate. If the garage is heated of course the boost is larger.

Tomatoes taste pretty bad if exposed to consistent nights with temperatures below 50 when the fruit is ripe or close to it. This ends the season for me a few weeks before frost does unless frost is early



Not to worry, in a few years you will be able to grow tomatoes on the shore of Hudson Bay.
Quoting 250. sar2401:


Is that a public storm sewer in what appears to be a private backyard? It looks more like a private drain for the homeowner but I can't really tell.


I think it is a drain on a private property which connects to the local sewer system. If that fills up too quickly, it can push up the water in those drains.

We had this problem in my childhood home in Germany, too. When we had torrential rainfall the mounting water pressure would force it up and as a result our cellar flooded. My dad installed a backflow preventing valve allowing only drainage and stopping it when the sewer system was overflowing.

I don't think that they have anything like that here in Wales as torrential rainfall like today is rare. It rains quite frequently but not very large quantities in a short time.
Quoting 261. taistelutipu:



I think it is a drain on a private property which connects to the local sewer system. If that fills up too quickly, it can push up the water in those drains. We had this problem in my childhood home in Germany, too. When we had torrential rainfall the mounting water pressure would force it up and as a result our cellar flooded.



Exactly, sigh. Lost a lot of books some years earlier because of this.
Quoting barbamz:


Exactly, sigh. Lost a lot of books some years earlier because of this.


Ouch. I'd rather lose my car…...


I suspect nothing this May...

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I suspect nothing this May...



Spoilsport !

:):))
Quoting 251. PlazaRed:


You may have to adapt to this kind of pre summer surprises as things ain't what they used to be.
Very nasty cold zone over the bay of Biscay and a lot of warm air over France.


Yes, these weird jet stream patterns have caused quite extreme weather here over the past couple of years. Extremely cold winters when the jet stream was tilted so that we got all the cold arctic air followed by an extremely wet but warm summer when we got all the subtropical air from the Atlantic, then a winter with a similar pattern, very warm, wet and extremely windy. I wonder what the summer has in store for us.

As seen in the pictures with the old drain, I worry that this country is not very well prepared for the changes ahead. The infrastructure will struggle with these extreme events. People don't have winter tyres or snow chains for their cars (because they rarely ever needed them before), houses are badly insulated, the drainage systems cannot deal with the stress of heavy rain, roads are easily damaged because their beds are not well made, and the list goes on.
Floods affect over 1 million in Balkans, destruction 'terrifying'

Djina Trisovic, a union spokeswoman at Serbia's EPS power utility, said some workers at the Nikola Tesla plant had worked three days with barely a break because relief teams could not reach the plant.

"The plant should be safe now," she told Reuters. "We've done all we could. Now it's in the hands of God."

The plant provides roughly half of Serbia's electricity. Parts of it had already been shut down as a precaution, but it would have to be powered down completely if the waters breached the defenses.

Flooding had already caused considerable damage, estimated by the government at over 100 million euros ($140 million), to the Kolubara coal mine that supplies the plant.


Link
Quoting 259. pottery:


That's true.
Here, in the City, we have a real problem with all the food-places that have proliferated in the last 20 nears or so.
They dump their wastewater into the city sewers, and the grease in that water clogs the drains, big time.

I have a friend in Barbados, who makes good money clearing shower drains in the hotels.
At 11:00am, and at 5:00 pm, every tourist gets into the shower and washes off the sunscreen.
The build-up of congealed oils in the drain pipes soon causes problems.

Who would have thunk it, eh ?


Yes that is also a huge problem on this side of the Atlantic.
There was an article about that in the Guardian, the largest 'fatberg' ever removed from the London sewer system. It was a whopping 15 tons! The article features a video from the sewers showing the sheer size of the fatberg.
Brazil hit by massive hail storm

A storm has brought marble-sized hail to the city of Sao Paulo, leaving some streets flooded or coated in white in Brazil's largest city.

Link
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON MAY 19 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Systems with the potential to become a tropical cyclone during the
next 48 hours...

A disorganized area of disturbed weather is centered several
hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Environmental conditions are foreast to be conducive for a gradual
development of this system over the next several days while it moves
slowly westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Avila
Down to 48 on Saturday morning!

Quite cool today, 59/73. Summer should return later this week, and will probably be summery from then till the next equinox at least.
Astronomy Photo of the Day


Meteors, Planes, and a Galaxy over Bryce Canyon

Image Credit & Copyright: Dave Lane
Russell, Kansas.
101ºF


Record for May: 102ºF
Quoting taistelutipu:


Yes that is also a huge problem on this side of the Atlantic.
There was an article about that in the Guardian, the largest 'fatberg' ever removed from the London sewer system. It was a whopping 15 tons! The article features a video from the sewers showing the sheer size of the fatberg.

Yeah, I read about the ''fat burg''. Brilliant.

Anyway, bells are ringing, which means my dinner is cooked.
I'm a Bachelor these days. Until Wednesday.
It's Dread.

:):))
Quoting 225. westscotweather:

That was a solid two hours of storms passing through, you can see how the storms are training north-westwards:






You guys are having some weird weather over there.
Quoting pottery:

My guess is that it's a private drain, connected to the town waste-water system.

It happens here too, with heavy rain.


These have been illegal for several decades in Maryland but there are many forgotten connections from the early 20'th century and my cellar too used to flood with sewage when 4" of rain fell in less than 12 hours.. seven times in thirteen years. (1996, 1998, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2009) I finally blocked off all of the drains since backflow preventers are not guaranteed in debris filled water and have stopped the last two floods in 2008 and 2009 (near miss in 2014). I'm considered the local paul revere since I monitor heavy rain and know when it's coming. But I'm very sensitive to forecasts of flash flooding
Quoting 231. Wolfberry:


Indianrivguy, you are deserving of a lot more than kind words..ultimately it is all going to fall on itself..The sugar subsidies, fossil fuels, etc. There is really nothing to argue. Societies at large cannot sustain their voracious appetites of ineptitude spear heading their gluttony for greed..


In other words, after we bring down Megamaid with a well placed Schwartz blast to the nuts, Pizza the Hut will become trapped in his stretched limo and eat himself to death. Then we'll all ride off into the sunset in a flying Winnebago to live happily ever after.

The End.
Quoting 278. Xyrus2000:



In other words, after we bring down Megamaid with a well placed Schwartz blast to the nuts, Pizza the Hut will become trapped in his stretched limo and eat himself to death. Then we'll all ride off into the sunset in a flying Winnebago to live happily ever after.

The End.
You have the whole world figured out in three sentences...:)
Quoting LAbonbon:


hydrus, not sure if you realize I was being sarcastic in my post. 'Fat cat'scientists and UN takeover are two of my biggest pet peeves among the conspiracies bandied about. Many of us as a matter of course discard these ideas, but some people don't. Any time spent elsewhere on the web easily demonstrates this, unfortunately.

I'm personally an adherent to the theory that everyone in charge is actually a reptilian shape shifter. It makes perfect sense, since reptiles need a nice warm climate, and we're certainly headed that way. Not only that, but it gives me a feeling of satisfaction imagining George Bush and Bill Clinton, both in their secret reptile habitat, sunning themselves on rocks, flicking out those long tongues, trying catch passing insects. :-)
Quoting Xyrus2000:


In other words, after we bring down Megamaid with a well placed Schwartz blast to the nuts, Pizza the Hut will become trapped in his stretched limo and eat himself to death. Then we'll all ride off into the sunset in a flying Winnebago to live happily ever after.

The End.

Ah, I can see you watched Space Balls too many times also. :-)
Quoting 179. Xyrus2000:



Nothing like watching a little Russian Roulette play out, as long as you're not the one playing eh?

There are several studies that have been done in this area, and of course there is ongoing research as well. But more importantly, what will it take to convince you? How long are you willing to wait? Do we take action now, count our losses, and walk away or do we wait until we're spinning the cylinder?

We don't win this game. We've already placed our bets. It's either going to cost us now or it's going to cost us a lot more later.
I like this post.
Quoting rayduray2013:

That's interesting about night temps. Sadly, in June we can expect about 42 F. overnight. A little worse in September. The silver lining is that I don't need AC. Just open the windows at night and close them when the Sun's up during the dog days. The house stays nice and cool. :)

Yeah, it was similar in the North SF Bay. It would go down into the high or mid-40's every night. I lived in line with the Meacham Gap, the only opening the interior coastal valleys between Eureka and San Francisco. The wind would come howling through the Gap almost every night in the summer and drop temperatures from 80 to 50 in 45 minutes. I had a lid on my grill to keep the hot dogs from blowing off. In almost 30 years there, I think I had a decent crop of tomatoes twice. As you say, the upside was not having A/C. Never even had it installed in my house. I had a swamp cooler installed like Pedley has for those few hot days that were always low humidity weather. If we find people raising bumper crops of tomatoes in the North Bay, that will be surest sign of global warming we could get. :-)
Quoting 248. sar2401:


All this research is my own, BTW, not a bunch of cut and paste stuff from Google. Go ahead, look it up, I know you want to. :-)

As far as I'm concerned you may bloviate link-free to your heart's content so long as you avoid climate wishcasting.
285. DDR
Good evening
A few decent showers with the wave @ 60w over south america,1/2 inch of rain here in Trinidad,pottery if your there,how much rain did you get?
Quoting 260. jpsb:



Not to worry, in a few years you will be able to grow tomatoes on the shore of Hudson Bay.

More like a few hundred years, probably, and the soil will still be crap, but it seems quite sure to be the case given what was living and growing on southern Ellesmere Island (far to the north of Hudson Bay) the last time CO2 was as high as it is now. From Wikipedia:

This fossil site includes the mummified remains of fossil plants, including trees such as an extinct larch (Larix groenlandii) and other trees indicative of a boreal forest. Much of the wood preserved at the site has been gnawed by beavers and some of it is fire-blackened. This exceptional site also has yielded remains of pollen, insects, mollusks, fish (a percid), frogs and mammals such as an unusual rodent, a deerlet (Boreameryx), 3-toed horse, an extinct beaver (Dipoides), a rabbit (Hypolagus), an unusual shrew (Arctisorex polaris), a primitive black bear (Ursus abstrusus), a badger (Arctomeles), and several other carnivores.

Paleoclimatic reconstruction suggests a mean annual temperature that was 14–19 °C (25–34 °F) warmer than present day Ellesmere Island. The assemblage of Pliocene plant macrofossils (wood, leaves, cones and seeds) is typical of present day boreal forest, as it includes alder (Alnus), birch (Betula), bogbean (Menyanthes trifoliata), larch (Larix), sweet gale (Myrica gale), spruce (Picea), pine (Pinus), and lingonberry (Vaccinium vitis-idaea), as well as the southern boreal tree, the white cedar (Thuja occidentalis).


Despite an overall boreal climate, given that it's well above the Arctic circle even this location might be able to manage a tomato crop in the summer.

And oh yeah, there's the small detail that climate won't be stopping at this state since we're not stopping at 400 ppm. Sugarcane next?

So now you've learned something else about climate you can forget about real soon, jpsb! You're welcome.
287. etxwx
Evening reading...
A year after deadly Oklahoma tornado, city braces for next twister
(Reuters) - A year after a tornado ripped apart the Oklahoma city of Moore, killing 24 and injuring more than 300, residents face a shortage of storm shelters as they brace for a new season of potentially deadly twisters.

EPA mulls ethanol change as industry profits soar
DES MOINES, Iowa Just as ethanol producers have been seeing the industry’s most profitable months ever, the federal government is considering whether to lower the amount of the corn-based fuel that must be blended into gasoline.

As NASA seeks next mission, Russia holds the trump card
Adrift: How NASA came to depend on Russia for access to space is a series by Houston Chronicle's Science Guy Eric Berger that will look at the state of America’s space program. In this first installment, he examines how NASA’s illustrious human spaceflight program became dependent on Russia to get to space.

And from The Texas Tribune:
Marvin Nichols Reservoir Plan Gets Another Boost
The Texas Water Development Board's executive director issued a final recommendation Monday that the controversial Marvin Nichols reservoir in northeast Texas remain in the state water plan for the time being, and he asked interested groups in that region to drop their opposition to the plan.

TCEQ Proposal Could Mean More Dry Years for Rice Farmers
Gulf Coast rice farmers who have gone three years without water supplies from Central Texas' Highland Lakes could be in store for many more dry years, even if the current drought conditions improve.

From KHOU: Dozens of Texas communities with less than 90 days of water

Quoting 283. sar2401:
 I lived in line with the Meacham Gap, the only opening the interior coastal valleys between Eureka and San Francisco.
Well I learn something new every day. I must have gone by Meacham Gap dozens of times without realizing it. :)

Down in SoCal there's a gap that blows up through Camp Pendleton to Temecula. Which sounds very similar and which allowed for wine grapes to grow in a microclimate while the surrounding terrain was baking hot.


Temecula Fog
Quoting DDR:
Good evening
A few decent showers with the wave @ 60w over south america,1/2 inch of rain here in Trinidad,pottery if your there,how much rain did you get?

6mm……….

Hoping for some more overnight, but it seems to be losing it's mojo, that area of cloud.

Good to see you !
HOT. Record heat this weekend?


Quoting 242. taistelutipu:



We had a heck of a thunderstorm earlier this afternoon in NW-Wales, followed by a second wave in the early evening. It's quiet now, only a bit of rain left. I don't recall that we ever had such a strong storm in May. It went dark, torrential rain and some small hail fell and then a couple of lightning strikes hit the ground not too far away from my location. It was quite a strobo show. Yikes! I'm not used to spectacular weather like this.


Oh nice map image. You know, we get the occassional forecast for thunderstorms, but very rarely do they appear, so today was a surprise. Still rumbling now out here towards LLanberis. Was in Beaumaris when it was all kicking off this afternoon...and everyone seemed surprised by how much there was
290...Hi Scott....Which NWS Disco's are discussing all-time record heat?
Short, but sweet from the Miami NWS...

DISCUSSION...

THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT HIGH
PRESSURE AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVELS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
AT LEAST MID-WEEK AND LIKELY INTO THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK.
THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL SLOWLY FORCE THE BOUNDARY MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
WEEK. MAINLY EASTERLY FLOW...FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK.
295. DDR
Quoting pottery:

6mm……….

Hoping for some more overnight, but it seems to be losing it's mojo, that area of cloud.

Good to see you !

Good to see you too pottery
the rainy season should offical begin on the 25-26th according to the gfs,we'll have some more then :)
Quoting 264. GeoffreyWPB:



I suspect nothing this May...




Knowing you, don't suspect anything in June either.
Record highs in Orlando during May 21-31 range from 97 to 102.
Quoting 280. sar2401:


I'm personally an adherent to the theory that everyone in charge is actually a reptilian shape shifter. It makes perfect sense, since reptiles need a nice warm climate, and we're certainly headed that way. Not only that, but it gives me a feeling of satisfaction imagining George Bush and Bill Clinton, both in their secret reptile habitat, sunning themselves on rocks, flicking out those long tongues, trying catch passing insects. :-)


Reading this I have images in my head similar to Steadman's drawings of 'Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas'.
More an H.R. Giger fan myself :)
Quoting 254. hydrus:

My bad. I have seen so many comments about the big bad scientists superimposing there view of morality on people speeches, I reacted without hesitation....I apologize ...and will work on my uncontrolled responses regardless of content..:)


No worries...we've all done it. And sarcasm doesn't always translate well in writing.

I do admire your passion for the topic though :-)
Good Evening all, we had some good rain these past 2 days in the Caymans, at least in Grand Cayman. It was well needed , i don't knowthe year I 've seen it so hot and dry so early in the year!
Quoting 154. rayduray2013:


Thanks for your report on Indian River. I'm aware of it because you are blessed with the best grapefruit on the planet. Sadly, we don't seem to find them here in Oregon like we once did. I hope you continue to post about the trip tomorrow and the possibility of a video coming from the Weather Channel down the road.



Orchid Island Grapefruit :)
Finally got that whole sinkhole issue fixed. :p I hope everyone has a good night.
Interesting discussion on WeatherBrains tonight with Chris Landsea of the NHC. He says that the threshold required for hurricane formation will not change drastically with climate change, that little intensity change is predicted, and that only a moderate decrease in the overall numbers would be observed. He also references ongoing research at the University of Miami that suggests that recurvatures will increase with climate change.

So that's good for those that are scared of them.

That said, he does note that increasing sea levels would make the effects of hurricanes on coastal areas more severe.
Quoting 302. Grothar:




How do they calculate the mean? Average high/low for the day, take hourly readings and average them, get an average per day and then average the averages for the time period? Serious question here...I've always wondered how they do it.
Quoting 305. Doppler22:

Finally got that whole sinkhole issue fixed. :p I hope everyone has a good night.


Well that's good news! Good night, Doppler.
Didn't even make it into the eighties today. Topped out at 79.2F, getting cooler tomorrow and a 20% chance of rain (right). Then slowly back up....

Who do I contact about my photos all being taken down and put in "approval pending"? My old photo blog is ruined and I'm really angry.

It's not from the upgrade, the pictures were all up last week.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Who do I contact about my photos all being taken down and put in "approval pending"? My old photo blog is ruined and I'm really angry.

It's not from the upgrade, the pictures were all up last week.

What the...??? I was looking at your pictures Saturday. Why would they be removed? This must be some kind of mistake. Did they even contact you about it?
I have no idea sar. I was looking for a link in the photo section to contact them and find out, but there doesn't seem to be a link for contacting the wunderphoto approval people. I'm really pissed. If it's a bug and they're up tomorrow then OK. If not....
Quoting 310. BaltimoreBrian:

Who do I contact about my photos all being taken down and put in "approval pending"? My old photo blog is ruined and I'm really angry.

It's not from the upgrade, the pictures were all up last week.

Brian, angry? Those words are not synonymous with each other.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Who do I contact about my photos all being taken down and put in "approval pending"? My old photo blog is ruined and I'm really angry.

It's not from the upgrade, the pictures were all up last week.


Hi BB, check your gmail.

You might want to stop by Admin's blog and ask there, or send someone (mod, admin, support) an email about the issue.
Quoting 313. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Brian, angry? Those words are not synonymous with each other.


I know. I always took him as the sort of pacifist of the group. :P
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Brian, angry? Those words are not synonymous with each other.


Quoting KoritheMan:


I know. I always took him as the sort of pacifist of the group. :P


Other than missing pictures and anti-semitism/yoboi, I do know of one way to make Brian mad. I think because it's embarrassing to him, idk.

;)
Quoting 316. Astrometeor:





Other than missing pictures and anti-semitism/yoboi, I do know of one way to make Brian mad. I think because it's embarrassing to him, idk.

;)


Kind of like how emotions are embarrassing to me? I understand! :P

EDIT: Although I'm slowly learning the folly in that ideology of mine that I held dear for so long. Ugh.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Why Aren't There Tornado Shelters in Every Oklahoma School? (with three non-self-executing videos)

Oklahoma is not OK!

Tough story. The governor, although it seems like she has her heart in the right place, has proposed a non-starter when it come to issuing bonds. School districts that have the credit rating to issue bonds could do so tomorrow. Those without the credit rating, which is the majority in OK, wouldn't be able to do so without a state guarantee, and that's not going to happen. Using money from a corporate tax is also a non-starter. Times are not good, and the last thing you want to do is drive away business. Other than the fact corporations are convenient source of tax money, it's also not clear to me why they should be expected to fund school shelters. What I didn't read in the story was anything about a one penny increase in sales tax, which would be a reasonably fair way to get everyone in the state to pay. Of course, that's a direct tax, and no politician wants to head for that swamp.

Two other salient points from the story. The first is about the quality of the construction. It doesn't matter what the code says if the construction is poor. There should be additional and detailed inspections of all public building to assure they are really built according to code. The second is that an EF-5 striking a school building during school hours in an exceedingly rare event. It's a tragedy that seven children died, but we stick our kids on school busses with hardly a second thought, and an average of 142 children a year die nationwide each year on school busses. Should we put money into school shelters that, unless they are underground, are unlikely to survive a direct hit by an EF-5, or should we be spending money to improve safety and lower the death rates on a clear and present danger like school busses? Ideally, we should do both, but it's not an ideal world.

Finally, I'm proud of good ole redneck Alabama for being the first state in the nation to require FEMA rated shelters in new school construction. The bill didn't go as far as I would have liked to have seen it, but it's a start. In Alabama, a start is a big victory. At least I can stop sending emails to almost everyone in state government about this issue for a while. :-)
Hopefully something that actually becomes Amanda. Third time's the charm.

Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
I have no idea sar. I was looking for a link in the photo section to contact them and find out, but there doesn't seem to be a link for contacting the wunderphoto approval people. I'm really pissed. If it's a bug and they're up tomorrow then OK. If not....

I don't blame you, brother. Like Astro said, stop by the Admin's blog first and raise heck. Maybe a picture of you with an M-4 and a chest full of frags might help too. :-)
Quoting 312. BaltimoreBrian:

I have no idea sar. I was looking for a link in the photo section to contact them and find out, but there doesn't seem to be a link for contacting the wunderphoto approval people. I'm really pissed. If it's a bug and they're up tomorrow then OK. If not....


Send Dr. Masters WuMail. I think that warrants a WuMail to him.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Hopefully something that actually becomes Amanda. Third time's the charm.


Eventually, one of those will turn into something. They have been extremely resistant to the suggestion so far though. How's your ethereal virus?
Quoting KoritheMan:


Kind of like how emotions are embarrassing to me? I understand! :P

EDIT: Although I'm slowly learning the folly in that ideology of mine that I held dear for so long. Ugh.

Wait until you meet the right woman, Kori. You'll learn all about your more sensitive side. :-)
Quoting 306. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Interesting discussion on WeatherBrains tonight with Chris Landsea of the NHC. He says that the threshold required for hurricane formation will not change drastically with climate change, that little intensity change is predicted, and that only a moderate decrease in the overall numbers would be observed. He also references ongoing research at the University of Miami that suggests that recurvatures will increase with climate change.

So that's good for those that are scared of them.

That said, he does note that increasing sea levels would make the effects of hurricanes on coastal areas more severe.


That's a nice hypothesis. Really it's all conjecture at this point. We really have very little grasp on what's coming for hurricanes with AGW. With so much heat being shoved to the deep oceans, at some point a feedback in some form will happen. Will this result in far higher ocean temps; like we saw was the fuel for the disaster in the Philippines or will this feedback be more atmospheric? The jury's going to be out for some time on what the future of hurricanes will be. Safe to say more strong West Pacific storms are likely and more pole oriented storms are likely. Makes it likely a major could hit the NE more often. An active hurricane season during El-Nino would certainly only throw another wrench into the equation. Exciting/troubling times ahead is the only real known now.
Quoting LAbonbon:


How do they calculate the mean? Average high/low for the day, take hourly readings and average them, get an average per day and then average the averages for the time period? Serious question here...I've always wondered how they do it.

Here you go Bonnie. More ways to calculate mean temperatures than you ever thought possibe. You just knew some big brain type had to write a paper about this, right? :-)
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Short, but sweet from the Miami NWS...

DISCUSSION...

THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT HIGH
PRESSURE AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVELS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
AT LEAST MID-WEEK AND LIKELY INTO THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK.
THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL SLOWLY FORCE THE BOUNDARY MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
WEEK. MAINLY EASTERLY FLOW...FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK.

What? Seasonal temperatures?

Here's what BMX says about my area -

QUIET WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR THE NEXT
WEEK...WITH NO POPS AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S BY THURSDAY. AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH MID WEEK...MID LEVEL RIDGING
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN
PLACE...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE EACH DAY AND CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY. A BACKDOOR FRONT ATTEMPTS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY DUE TO TROUGHING ALONG
THE EAST COAST. FRONT DOES NOT BRING MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT AND THE
GULF NEVER OPENS...SO WILL NOT CARRY ANY POPS. WILL SEE AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER BY SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST
AND WEAK IMPULSES ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE. MOISTURE REMAINS
LOW....AND WILL CARRY WITH NO POPS.
My photos have been restored. WeatherWise believes they were shifting servers.
Quoting sar2401:

Wait until you meet the right woman, Kori. You'll learn all about your more sensitive side. :-)


right man*, sar.

:)
Quoting 281. sar2401:


Ah, I can see you watched Space Balls too many times also. :-)


Kids are good like that. :P
Quoting 325. sar2401:


Here you go Bonnie. More ways to calculate mean temperatures than you ever thought possibe. You just knew some big brain type had to write a paper about this, right? :-)


Thanks, Sar, for providing this. I'll give it a read through later, maybe tomorrow. Been fighting a migraine since this afternoon, and I think it's won. :(

Kori-hope you're feeling better. And I saw your post from last night...no voodoo wishcasting a storm this way, no pre-planned posthumous apologies...No Deal :-)

Bri-glad to see you're stuff's been restored...'cause that would have been a real bummer.

I'm headed to bed - hope everyone has a good evening.
Quoting rayduray2013:

Well I learn something new every day. I must have gone by Meacham Gap dozens of times without realizing it. :)

Down in SoCal there's a gap that blows up through Camp Pendleton to Temecula. Which sounds very similar and which allowed for wine grapes to grow in a microclimate while the surrounding terrain was baking hot.


Temecula Fog

Exactly. Same reason the Sonoma and Napa Valleys are such premier grape growing regions. Allows enough heat during the day but the marine air comes in each night and cools it down enough so the grapes don't cook on the vine. Of course, they also grow grapes in Fresno, which has a climate second only to Death Valley in summer, so I guess some grapes are tougher than others. :-)
Quoting LAbonbon:


Thanks, Sar, for providing this. I'll give it a read through later, maybe tomorrow. Been fighting a migraine since this afternoon, and I think it's won. :(

Kori-hope you're feeling better. And I saw your post from last night...no voodoo wishcasting a storm this way, no pre-planned posthumous apologies...No Deal :-)

Bri-glad to see you're stuff's been restored...'cause that would have been a real bummer.

I'm headed to bed - hope everyone has a good evening.

Sorry to hear about the migraine. That paper will give you a migraine if you didn't have one. Lay down in the dark room and close your eyes.
Quoting 324. DeepSeaRising:



That's a nice hypothesis. Really it's all conjecture at this point. We really have very little grasp on what's coming for hurricanes with AGW. With so much heat being shoved to the deep oceans, at some point a feedback in some form will happen. Will this result in far higher ocean temps; like we saw was the fuel for the disaster in the Philippines or will this feedback be more atmospheric? The jury's going to be out for some time on what the future of hurricanes will be. Safe to say more strong West Pacific storms are likely and more pole oriented storms are likely. Makes it likely a major could hit the NE more often. An active hurricane season during El-Nino would certainly only throw another wrench into the equation. Exciting/troubling times ahead is the only real known now.

Tribucanes great to see you man. I've read the blog forever and remember some great conversations you got into on the night shift with Kori and the bunch..I can only see where heat will be an additive factor in the ocean for stronger and more canes. To me it's not science it's common sense..(that's why I'm here and not writing peer reviewed papers)
Quoting Astrometeor:


right man*, sar.

:)

OK, that too. Let's just say significant other. Regardless of how the pairing ends up, you still get to find that emotional guy within, whether you like it or not. :-)
Quoting 334. sar2401:


Sorry to hear about the migraine. That paper will give you a migraine if you didn't have one. Lay down in the dark room and close your eyes.


That's the plan. Got a specific piece of 'relaxation' music from Youtube that seems works really well w/ bad headaches.

(BTW, the white background of this site is almost painful w/ a migraine. That was my first thought when I saw the new design, but this is the first one I've really had since then.)
Quoting 336. sar2401:


OK, that too. Let's just say significant other. Regardless of how the pairing ends up, you still get to find that emotional guy within, whether you like it or not. :-)


True. And if you have a problem finding it your significant other will drag it out of you kicking and screaming. :D
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
My photos have been restored. WeatherWise believes they were shifting servers.

That's good to hear. At least you didn't have to all ballistic on their hineys. Still, pretty sloppy server management.
Quoting LAbonbon:


That's the plan. Got a specific piece of 'relaxation' music from Youtube that seems works really well w/ bad headaches.

(BTW, the white background of this site is almost painful w/ a migraine. That was my first thought when I saw the new design, but this is the first one I've really had since then.)

That's another reason I like Classic. Nice soothing gray background. I guess it was designed for people of a certain age and people with migraines. My late wife and now my fiance both were/are afflicted with migraines, so I feel for you. In my case, it's just my lumbago acting up. :-)
Quoting 324. DeepSeaRising:



That's a nice hypothesis. Really it's all conjecture at this point. We really have very little grasp on what's coming for hurricanes with AGW. With so much heat being shoved to the deep oceans, at some point a feedback in some form will happen. Will this result in far higher ocean temps; like we saw was the fuel for the disaster in the Philippines or will this feedback be more atmospheric? The jury's going to be out for some time on what the future of hurricanes will be. Safe to say more strong West Pacific storms are likely and more pole oriented storms are likely. Makes it likely a major could hit the NE more often. An active hurricane season during El-Nino would certainly only throw another wrench into the equation. Exciting/troubling times ahead is the only real known now.

The TC theorists have a pretty good idea of what's coming. Unfortunately there's no deep-time proxy record for TC activity, but polar amplification during the Pliocene means that something (very likely more than one something) was advecting an awful lot of heat from the tropics up to high latitudes. Of the several candidate mechanisms, the leading one is increased TCs. See this paper and note the track locations (2 years shown to make the geographic extent clear). That said, this is a long-term effect and says very little about TC activity in the near future.
Quoting spbloom:

The TC theorists have a pretty good idea of what's coming. Unfortunately there's no deep-time proxy record for TC activity, but polar amplification during the Pliocene means that something (very likely more than one something) was advecting an awful lot of heat from the tropics up to high latitudes. Of the several candidate mechanisms, the leading one is increased TCs. See this paper and note the track locations (2 years shown to make the geographic extent clear). That said, this is a long-term effect and says very little about TC activity in the near future.

Mid latitude cyclones do the transport of heat.
Visualising the amount of ice melting in Antarctica

So 160 billion tonnes of ice would put an area equivalent to Ireland under 2 metres of water every year.


Link
Quoting 343. bappit:


Mid latitude cyclones do the transport of heat.

Much added transport is needed to get the Pliocene temperature distribution. Read the paper!
LOL It is late. I'm too used to people saying TC's nowadays transport heat from the equator to the poles. Knee jerk reaction.
Thanks, Brian, for linking to this truly fantastic news:

Modi to Use Solar to Bring Power to Every Home by 2019

India's new government led by Narendra Modi plans to harness solar power to enable every home to run at least one light bulb by 2019, a party official said.

"We look upon solar as having the potential to completely transform the way we look at the energy space," said Narendra Taneja, convener of the energy division at Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party, which swept to power on May 16 in the biggest electoral win in three decades.

About 400 million people in India lack access to electricity, more than the combined population of the U.S. and Canada. The outgoing government led by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh missed a 2012 target to provide electricity to all households.

The five-year goal will require the cooperation of state-level administrations with which the central government shares control over the power industry, Taneja said. If successful, solar panels could allow every home to have enough power to run two bulbs, a solar cooker and a television, he said.

Expanding clean-power generation will be the administration's top energy-related priority, especially solar because it has the potential to create jobs and supply millions of scattered households not connected to the grid, he said.

Modi, as chief minister of Gujarat state, pioneered India's first incentives for large-scale solar power in 2009. The party will take lessons from Gujarat's program as it designs policies on a national level that will include both larger, grid-connected photovoltaic projects and smaller, decentralized applications for solar, Taneja said.
Quoting 340. sar2401:


That's another reason I like Classic. Nice soothing gray background. I guess it was designed for people of a certain age and people with migraines. My late wife and now my fiance both were/are afflicted with migraines, so I feel for you. In my case, it's just my lumbago acting up. :-)

I'm not joking, sar. I often wear sunglasses when I am on the blog. I have suffered to years with migraines and it is a strain on the eyes. Mrs. Grothar says I look like Roy Orbison writing a new song. This white background is terrible.
Quoting 346. bappit:

LOL It is late. I'm too used to people saying TC's nowadays transport heat from the equator to the poles. Knee jerk reaction.

Actually that's still a good point since they show the TCs themselves getting no farther poleward than about 50 degrees latitude.
I'm not joking, sar. I often wear sunglasses when I am on the blog. I have suffered to years with migraines and it is a strain on the eyes. Mr. Grothar says I look like Roy Orbison writing a new song. This white background is terrible.

Mr.? Is this the wife of Gro speaking, then?
Quoting Grothar:

No, I believe you. I'm not even prone to getting any kind of headache and I had one bad after my three day ill-advised trial of the new site. Apparently it doesn't bother young people as much as we ancient relics. Maybe it was done to get rid of us. Still, I imagine Mrs. Grothar thinks you look quite fetching in your shades. :-)
Quoting Astrometeor:
I'm not joking, sar. I often wear sunglasses when I am on the blog. I have suffered to years with migraines and it is a strain on the eyes. Mr. Grothar says I look like Roy Orbison writing a new song. This white background is terrible.

Mr.? Is this the wife of Gro speaking, then?

Shush, Astro, it's just all that eye strain makes him miss a letter occasionally. :-)
From the article:

"In particular, the Pacific developed a permanent El Nin%u0303o-like state (for a review, see ref. 6). This term implies that the mean sea surface temperature (SST) gradient along the Equator was very weak or absent (Fig. 1a). Similarly, the meridional temperature gradient from the Equator to the mid-latitudes was significantly reduced. In fact, in the early Pliocene the SST distribution was virtually flat between the Equator and the subtropics, indicating a poleward expansion of the ocean warm pool (Fig. 1b)."

So they want to explain what maintained this large pool of warm tropical and subtropical water. Their suggestion is that TC's could provide positive feedback by mixing the upper layer of the ocean and ocean currents would distribute the heat over this region. The cold wakes would bring water to the surface for warming and warm water would be mixed downward into the currents. --It is an interesting article.
Quoting 323. sar2401:


Wait until you meet the right woman, Kori. You'll learn all about your more sensitive side. :-)


Women don't apply to a gay person, but your advice is duly noted. :P
Quoting Mrs. Grothar:

I read that looking at a bright screen somehow makes you blink less frequently which makes your eyes dry out. I've noticed some irritation myself when looking at bright screens.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Women don't apply to a gay person, but your advice is duly noted. :P

Yes, I amended my advice once Astro gave me the 411. However, having lived in the SF Bay Area for 30 years, I had more than a few gay friends, and they spent as much time crying on my shoulder about how mean their partner was as any of my hetero friends. It's not the anatomy that makes relationships difficult, it's the heart.
Quoting 350. Astrometeor:

I'm not joking, sar. I often wear sunglasses when I am on the blog. I have suffered to years with migraines and it is a strain on the eyes. Mr. Grothar says I look like Roy Orbison writing a new song. This white background is terrible.

Mr.? Is this the wife of Gro speaking, then?


Now how could I forget her "s".

Edited and corrected. (see what this white background does) It lets you make a lot of tpyos.
Quoting 355. bappit:


I read that looking at a bright screen somehow makes you blink less frequently which makes your eyes dry out. I've noticed some irritation myself when looking at bright screens.


Especially if one has floaters. That makes it doubly bad. I have actually had to turn down the brightness on the screen to stay on here long.
Quoting ColoradoBob1:
Visualising the amount of ice melting in Antarctica

So 160 billion tonnes of ice would put an area equivalent to Ireland under 2 metres of water every year.


Link

Whoever wrote that article apparently never heard of things like evaporation. Maybe he should stick to things like agriculture.
Quoting Grothar:


Especially if one has floaters. That makes it doubly bad. I have actually had to turn down the brightness on the screen to stay on here long.

I saw that,. I have floafers too. :-)
Quoting 347. spbloom:

Thanks, Brian, for linking to this truly fantastic news:

Modi to Use Solar to Bring Power to Every Home by 2019

India's new government led by Narendra Modi plans to harness solar power to enable every home to run at least one light bulb by 2019, a party official said.

"We look upon solar as having the potential to completely transform the way we look at the energy space," said Narendra Taneja, convener of the energy division at Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party, which swept to power on May 16 in the biggest electoral win in three decades.

About 400 million people in India lack access to electricity, more than the combined population of the U.S. and Canada. The outgoing government led by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh missed a 2012 target to provide electricity to all households.

The five-year goal will require the cooperation of state-level administrations with which the central government shares control over the power industry, Taneja said. If successful, solar panels could allow every home to have enough power to run two bulbs, a solar cooker and a television, he said.

Expanding clean-power generation will be the administration's top energy-related priority, especially solar because it has the potential to create jobs and supply millions of scattered households not connected to the grid, he said.

Modi, as chief minister of Gujarat state, pioneered India's first incentives for large-scale solar power in 2009. The party will take lessons from Gujarat's program as it designs policies on a national level that will include both larger, grid-connected photovoltaic projects and smaller, decentralized applications for solar, Taneja said.



I just read an entire article on something similar to this and I can't find it. I promise if I look again, I will send it to you.
I like that phrase: "Grothar and the wife of Gro".
Want to give a shout out to the wide variety of great minds we have here. As a lover of climate and weather I have gleamed so much from you all. From the old (Sar) to the "knew Jesus" (Gro) and all the young guns; you know who you are, I respect you all. Not to mention the actual climate scientists, denialists , tv mets, those who have worked for NOAA and rescue and recovery; this is truly a great site. What is sad, is that there's not more American's here absorbing all this. Really speaks volumes to what troubles us; loving and seeking all the wrong information. For what we have, in America at our fingertips, we are the most entertained but the least informed based on what's available to us; and that's truly troubling.
Quoting 351. sar2401:


No, I believe you. I'm not even prone to getting any kind of headache and I had one bad after my three day ill-advised trial of the new site. Apparently it doesn't bother young people as much as we ancient relics. Maybe it was done to get rid of us. Still, I imagine Mrs. Grothar thinks you look quite fetching in your shades. :-)


I'm prone to migraines, and oddly I don't find the site graphics to be a trigger at all.

(If the double espresso with a diet Pepsi chaser during the aura phase doesn't damp it down, sometimes 3 or 4 ounces of raw grass-fed beef (nearly all the local beef is such) can kick it. If not, it's wrap-around shades until the chores are done, then draw the shades.)
Well well. Will ya look at that.
More than half-way through May, and we're getting gusts and showers through the end of Tuesday.

Just seems like these surprise rains happen 1. right around irrigation (our next is Saturday) and 2. When I'm doing major storage space reorg.

But no frosts through the extended forecast, and today I got peas and okra seedlings planted between the tomatillos along the fenceline. I'm really hoping for a mess of okra in the freezer this winter.

Quoting 332. sar2401:

Of course, they also grow grapes in Fresno, which has a climate second only to Death Valley in summer, so I guess some grapes are tougher than others. :-)
Tougher, but certainly not tastier. I often will look for the shipper's address on a bottle of California wine if I'm not familiar with the brand. If the shipper's address is Lodi or Livermore, the wine bottle goes back on the sales shelf. :)

What I've been seeing more of lately is unusual coastal varietals from the Monterey Bay area north to the North Coast. A couple have been notable.

Funnily enough, while we can't do much with wine grapes locally due to the cold, up in Washington State there's a couple of terrific grape growing regions, the Yakima and Columbia River Valleys..The difference? They're about 3,000 feet lower in elevation than here.
Link for El Nino forcast from NASA! http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-na sa/2014/19may_elnino/

Quoting 333. Skyepony: 
Riah's Video


Thanks,  great report. I subscribed. Can't wait for more perky insouciance. We need more of that. :)
Quoting nonblanche:


I'm prone to migraines, and oddly I don't find the site graphics to be a trigger at all.

(If the double espresso with a diet Pepsi chaser during the aura phase doesn't damp it down, sometimes 3 or 4 ounces of raw grass-fed beef (nearly all the local beef is such) can kick it. If not, it's wrap-around shades until the chores are done, then draw the shades.)

Funny about how almost everyone with migraines has slightly different triggers for migraines. Your treatment is unorthodox, although it makes sense. Since a fairly high dose of caffeine can short circuit a migraine. Alas, however, almost everyone needs some of that time horizontal and in the dark to get over a bad one.
Quoting rayduray2013:

Thanks,  great report. I subscribed. Can't wait for more perky insouciance. We need more of that. :)

Uh, what?...oh, never mind, I thought you were talking about some of those new wines you found. :-)
Quoting rayduray2013:

Tougher, but certainly not tastier. I often will look for the shipper's address on a bottle of California wine if I'm not familiar with the brand. If the shipper's address is Lodi or Livermore, the wine bottle goes back on the sales shelf. :)

What I've been seeing more of lately is unusual coastal varietals from the Monterey Bay area north to the North Coast. A couple have been notable.

Funnily enough, while we can't do much with wine grapes locally due to the cold, up in Washington State there's a couple of terrific grape growing regions, the Yakima and Columbia River Valleys..The difference? They're about 3,000 feet lower in elevation than here.

I always thought they grew grapes in Fresno since they thought they could raise raisins on the vine. After living so long in Wine Country, I really miss a good glass of wine. Unfortunately, I developed a condition called Meniere's Syndrome in 2001. In addition to making me deaf in one ear in the first 24 hours after the initial attack, it turns out alcohol is one of my triggers. I found that out the next New Year's Eve, when I had one glass of Korbel Champagne. It's bad enough vomiting, let along barfing up good champagne. :-) Now I just get to read Wine Spectator and sigh.
Quoting 347. spbloom:

Thanks, Brian, for linking to this truly fantastic news:
Hmmm, that's not news. That's a politician's promise. I'm guessing you might be familiar with a few of these....
  • Obama promised to be the "environmental" president
  • Obama promised to close Guantanamo
  • Obama promised to fight for net neutrality
OK, I think you get the picture. :)

Quoting 372. sar2401:


Uh, what?...oh, never mind, I thought you were talking about some of those new wines you found. :-)
:Perky? Sure I like an occasional insouciant Beaujolais Nouveau. But give me a Gnarly Head Old Vine Zin any day. :)

Quoting 373. sar2401:


I always thought they grew grapes in Fresno since they thought they could raise raisins on the vine. After living so long in Wine Country, I really miss a good glass of wine. Unfortunately, I developed a condition called Meniere's Syndrome in 2001. In addition to making me deaf in one ear in the first 24 hours after the initial attack, it turns out alcohol is one of my triggers. I found that out the next New Year's Eve, when I had one glass of Korbel Champagne. It's bad enough vomiting, let along barfing up good champagne. :-) Now I just get to read Wine Spectator and sigh.
Gosh sar, sorry to hear about this. I did a quick search on Meniere's Syndrome. Dang it, I think I had almost every symptom listed in March when my allergies kicked in with a wallop. According to friends with the same allergies and more funding to spend on diagnoses, the culprit this year was a very unusually heavy juniper pollination. I'd never experienced such a severe bout before. Some are saying we might expect more severe allergy outbreaks with climate change. One more of the things we might not actually be looking forward to in our changing world.

Wine Spectator, eh? I think I could bankrupt myself listening to their advice. No, when I need a good advisor I just go down to the Grocery Outlet and ask the stock boy what's been selling recently. [wink]   I couldn't help but laugh this morning at a report from NPR. They were interviewing a wine salesman in Mayfair, London, the City's poshest neighborhood. They were offering a few bottles of Chateau D'Yquem 1811 for 160,000 pounds per bottle. They said that the inventory was moving. Holy Cow. I guess I'm not in the 1%.  That 160,000 pounds is more than the net worth of about 6 billion people on this planet. Gosh, things do seem a bit out of whack in this old world.
BOM ENSO UPDATE: Tropical Pacific Ocean edges further toward El Nino

Issued on Tuesday 20 May 2014 | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

The tropical Pacific Ocean continues a general trend toward El Nino, with just over half of the climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggesting El Nino thresholds will be exceeded by August. An El Nino ALERT remains in place, indicating at least a 70% chance of an El Nino developing in 2014.

ENSO SST Indices
Nino 1: +1.04
Nino 2: +1.28
Nino 3: +0.77
Nino 3.4: +0.54
Nino 4: +0.78
IOD: -0.09
Quoting 377. StormTrackerScott:

BOM ENSO UPDATE: Tropical Pacific Ocean edges further toward El Nino

Issued on Tuesday 20 May 2014 | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

The tropical Pacific Ocean continues a general trend toward El Nino, with just over half of the climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggesting El Nino thresholds will be exceeded by August. An El Nino ALERT remains in place, indicating at least a 70% chance of an El Nino developing in 2014.

ENSO SST Indices
Nino 1: 1.04
Nino 2: 1.28
Nino 3: 0.77
Nino 3.4: 0.54
Nino 4: 0.78
IOD: -0.09



If Nino 3 is 0.77 and Nino 4 is 0.78, how can Nino 3,4 be 0.54? Does not compute, captain.

Quoting 378. yonzabam:



If Nino 3 is 0.77 and Nino 4 is 0.78, how can Nino 3,4 be 0.54? Does not compute, captain.
Here's a map of the various zones. Note that if there is a lot of cooler water at the intersection of Nino 3 and Nino 4, and you have warmer water to the east end of Nino 3 and to the west end of Nino 4 one can come up with BOM's numbers.


Chart source: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/lanina/figure s.html

And here is what BOM is recording:



See: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Sea-surfa ce

QED
Quoting 379. rayduray2013:




See: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Sea-surf ace

It appears that Mother Nature is having a little joke at the expense of Joe Bastardi and his claim that this year we'll have an El Nino Modoki. If anything, this chart says the exact opposite is developing. :)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
441 AM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014


FRI-MON...LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL PRESS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA
WHICH WILL PROMOTE AN OFFSHORE FLOW FRI AND SAT
WHICH WILL DELAY
ONSET OF THE SEA BREEZE. WITH ATMOSPHERE REMAINING SUPPRESSED...
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REACH LOWER 90S AT THE COAST PRIOR TO SEA
BREEZE PASSAGE AND MID 90S INTERIOR FRI-SAT
. HAVE HELD ONTO A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS INTERIOR LATE SAT BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT
ABOUT THE ATMOSPHERE`S ABILITY TO GENERATE ANY PRECIP SAT EVE WITH
THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION INTERIOR.


Saturday per NWS

Slight Chance Thunderstorms Chance for Measurable Precipitation 20%

Slight Chc
Thunderstorms

High: 96



DEWPOINTS
Grothar - Saw your posts regarding eyesight. Neither my wife or myself are MDs, but what she has done to fix her eyesight is remarkable enough, her eye doctor claims it's physically impossible plus she claims the brightness of computer screens no longer bothers her. We live in Florida and it's hard to keep up with the tropical weather if you can't see your screen. She has diabetes, but instead of sight deteriorating, a supplement of lutein 3 times a week, plus a dose of cold rolled red raspberry seed powder daily has completely restored her sight without any side effects whatsoever. It took about 4 years but her sight improved each year and she no longer has to wear glasses. The only negative she found was the red raspberry stuff tastes like the south end of a northbound horse, so she dumps it in a cranberry juice-water combo. It's not a real expensive deal either and I'm sure folks have paid a lot more to see a lot less. Anyways, this might help you out so bon appetit'. FYI
383. MahFL
Quoting 347. spbloom:

Thanks, Brian, for linking to this truly fantastic news



It's only a proposal, how are the panels going to work during the Monsoon Season ?
384. MahFL
Quoting 373. sar2401:


... of Korbel Champagne. It's bad enough vomiting, let along barfing up good champagne...



Korbel is not good champagne.
melb. n.w.s? now thats normal ecen florida may weather
el nino that what the computer says but is it right? i dont trust them. waiting for reports from peruvian fisherman. also notice they only have a 30 yr span to determine average and those could be contaminated.
Temps look great for my cookout this Saturday, may get up to 92/93 in my area, cooler at the beaches. :o) sorry no upper 90s or 100s.



Local Orlando Forecast
Quoting 386. islander101010:

el nino that what the computer says but is it right? i dont trust them. waiting for reports from peruvian fisherman.
I have requested a sardine count to accompany the report
Sheesh no rain for the foreseeable future either. So much for the start of the 'wet' season. Likely will have to wait til June! Not far til cane season , just 11 days.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:
BOM ENSO UPDATE: Tropical Pacific Ocean edges further toward El Nino

Issued on Tuesday 20 May 2014 | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

The tropical Pacific Ocean continues a general trend toward El Nino, with just over half of the climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggesting El Nino thresholds will be exceeded by August. An El Nino ALERT remains in place, indicating at least a 70% chance of an El Nino developing in 2014.

ENSO SST Indices
Nino 1: +1.04
Nino 2: +1.28
Nino 3: +0.77
Nino 3.4: +0.54
Nino 4: +0.78
IOD: -0.09


Yep it looks like the 3.4 region is holding above 0.5C this week. If we get 3 months of it then it looks like August it could be official.
Quoting 389. StormWx:

Sheesh no rain for the foreseeable future either. So much for the start of the 'wet' season. Likely will have to wait til June! Not far til cane season , just 11 days.


we going to wring out fla for a bit been enough rain for a little while not long
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
we going to wring out fla for a bit been enough rain for a little while not long


Yep its been a wet winter and spring so i'll take a few weeks of nice weather before the deluge of summer begins.
Quoting 387. StormWx:

Temps look great for my cookout this Saturday, may get up to 92/93 in my area, cooler at the beaches. :o) sorry no upper 90s or 100s.



Local Orlando Forecast


The Wunderground forecast for my town, DeBary, is showing 98 for a high Saturday. Is that upper 90's enough? Going to be a lot of beer consumed on the golf course I think.
Sorry, I can't do the 'embed' thingy, so here's a link to a news video about a freak hail storm in Sao Paolo, Brazil yesterday. What is it with all this wacky weather?

Link
Quoting Donteven:

The Wunderground forecast for my town, DeBary, is showing 98 for a high Saturday. Is that upper 90's enough? Going to be a lot of beer consumed on the golf course I think.


It'll be a hot day to golf, but when there is beer involved it makes golf much less stressful :o)
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE MAY 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Systems with the potential to become a tropical cyclone during the
next 48 hours...

A broad low pressure system is producing a large area of cloudiness
and disorganized showers several hundred miles south of Acapulco,
Mexico. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for
generally slow development of the system over the next several
days while it moves west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart
Invest 92E is here.

EP, 92, 2014052012, , BEST, 0, 85N, 1005W, 20, 1008, LO
Sar - recently you've criticized the way some journal studies have been hyped - or at least oversold. I remember the one about the robins, but you might have commented on this article in Nature about plant nutrition. In any event, I thought you might enjoy this blog critiquing the study.

Another Bad Paper in Nature

“Increasing CO2 threatens human nutrition” boldly proclaims a new paper from last week in Nature by Samuel Myers of Harvard and 19 co-authors (press release here). I don’t have time for this, but something needs to be said and if I don’t do it, I betcha nobody will.
........
This paper should have been titled something like “Doubled CO2 may decrease zinc, iron and protein concentrations in several major crop species” and been submitted to Crop Science or Plant Physiology or similar journals. And, if an increase in total grain amount did in fact accompany the decline in nutrient concentrations, then the title should have reflected this reality.
Quoting 401. Civicane49:

Invest 92E is here.

EP, 92, 2014052012, , BEST, 0, 85N, 1005W, 20, 1008, LO




Quoting 397. Donteven:

The Wunderground forecast for my town, DeBary, is showing 98 for a high Saturday. Is that upper 90's enough? Going to be a lot of beer consumed on the golf course I think.


I know its great as that guy that is on my iggy list is showing a temperature map for 8pm (0Z) Saturday showing 92 not the actual high. Now that is cherry picking at it's best! Tom Terry on WFTV said that some areas could flirt with 100. I tried to tell this guy that models where showing 95 to 98 since last Wednesday for Orland for Friday and Saturday. Back door front could spark a dcent chance for thunderstorms on Sunday and with that much heat in place could see some isolated strong to severe pulse type storms develope as CAPE (Convective Available Potenial Energy) values will likely be very high.

Also I agree the beer will be flowing this weekend as we have several Kegs ready to go.

Quoting 402. FLwolverine:

Sar - recently you've criticized the way some journal studies have been hyped - or at least oversold. I remember the one about the robins, but you might have commented on this article in Nature about plant nutrition. In any event, I thought you might enjoy this blog critiquing the study.

Another Bad Paper in Nature

“Increasing CO2 threatens human nutrition” boldly proclaims a new paper from last week in Nature by Samuel Myers of Harvard and 19 co-authors (press release here). I don’t have time for this, but something needs to be said and if I don’t do it, I betcha nobody will.
........
This paper should have been titled something like “Doubled CO2 may decrease zinc, iron and protein concentrations in several major crop species” and been submitted to Crop Science or Plant Physiology or similar journals. And, if an increase in total grain amount did in fact accompany the decline in nutrient concentrations, then the title should have reflected this reality.


It wouldn't surprise me if micronutrient levels were decreased in plants as a result of the CO2 fertilisation effect. Increased CO2 increases carbohydrate, but not protein, and micronutrients are generally bound to protein and fibre, rather than the carbohydrate. This must have some effect on the creatures that eat them.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I know its great as that guy that is on my iggy list is showing a temperature map for 8pm (0Z) Saturday showing 92 not the actual high. Now that is cherry picking at it's best! Tom Terry on WFTV said that some areas could flirt with 100. I tried to tell this guy that models where showing 95 to 98 since last Wednesday for Orland for Friday and Saturday. Back door front could spark a dcent chance for thunderstorms on Sunday and with that much heat in place could see some isolated strong to severe pulse type storms develope as CAPE (Convective Available Potenial Energy) values will likely be very high.



What's' an 'iggy'? Cool slang man! :o) Well Scott I hope you survive the 100 degree heat and the 140 degree heat index bubba! If you see Tom Terry tell i said hello. Looks like your rain gauge is gonna be dry for a while :o) Check it out.



make sure to keep those kegs on ice as 110 degree heat will melt it very fast. I dont want you drinking warm beer!
407. MahFL
Hm, now the temp forecast for Fri and Sat is 95 F, was 93 and 87 lol.
Thought this was kinda cool, for the star gazers.



On May 24th, the heavens could put on a display of irony. Forecasters say Earth will cross a stream of debris from Comet 209P/LINEAR, and the encounter could trigger a bright new meteor shower. The ironic thing is, the comet is so faint:

Aaron Kingery of NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office took the picture on May 18th using a 0.5 meter telescope at the Marshall Space Flight Center. "209P is not a very photogenic comet," says Kingery. "This is the best I could do with a 60-second exposure."

How could such a dim comet produce a bright meteor shower? In 2014, 209P is producing very little dust. However, the debris Earth is about to encounter didn't come from 2014. It was shed by the comet mainly in the 19th and 20th centuries. In those days, forecasters hope, the comet was more active.

We will find out this weekend. If a magnificent meteor shower erupts on Saturday morning, it will be safe to say that the comet wasn't always so underwhelming.

Link
Quoting 407. MahFL:
Hm, now the temp forecast for Fri and Sat is 95 F, was 93 and 87 lol.


The reason is the NWS always goes conservative far out but once that particular timeframe nears the NWS begins to close in on what the guidance is showing but explaining that you guys the last several days was like talking to a brick wall. Anyways a backdoor cool front looks like it wants to move in Sunday or Monday with some cooling afternoon storms then the wet season sets in later next week as a cutoff feature builds over FL.With temps 90 plus and cold air aloft due to this upper feature overhead could yeild some pretty frisky storms in the afternoon.

Quoting 406. StormWx:



What's' an 'iggy'? Cool slang man! :o) Well Scott I hope you survive the 100 degree heat and the 140 degree heat index bubba! If you see Tom Terry tell i said hello. Looks like your rain gauge is gonna be dry for a while :o) Check it out.



make sure to keep those kegs on ice as 110 degree heat will melt it very fast. I dont want you drinking warm beer!


You're wasting your time talking to Scott, as I think he said yesterday that he'd decided to put yourself and ricderr on ignore. Shame, but he was getting pretty wound up about being 'called out' a lot. Probably best for his blood pressure.
Quoting 397. Donteven:


The Wunderground forecast for my town, DeBary, is showing 98 for a high Saturday. Is that upper 90's enough? Going to be a lot of beer consumed on the golf course I think.


Just letting you know that the Wudnerground forecast uses Personal Weather Stations to generate forecasts and I find that often overestimates high temps and underestimates low temps.
Quoting 410. yonzabam:


You're wasting your time talking to Scott, as I think he said yesterday that he'd decided to put yourself and ricderr on ignore. Shame, but he was getting pretty wound up about being 'called out' a lot. Probably best for his blood pressure.


"Called out" for being right again. Come on man! These two like to talk the trash but can't admit that they were wrong. Whether you believe me or not you should never continue to berate someone as these two did and as a result they are the first 2 I've ever put on iggy.

Quoting 335. Wolfberry:


Tribucanes great to see you man. I've read the blog forever and remember some great conversations you got into on the night shift with Kori and the bunch..I can only see where heat will be an additive factor in the ocean for stronger and more canes. To me it's not science it's common sense..(that's why I'm here and not writing peer reviewed papers)


Science often flies in the face of common sense though. :)

Hurricanes are basically heat engines. In order for a heat engine to do work, there has to be a temperature differential. Without it, you just have a bunch of heat with no way to make it do anything useful. Hurricanes also require certain circumstances to form. You need relatively low shear and moist air for example. Right now it looks like the average shear will increase, and more dry dusty air (SAL) will blow across the tropics in a warmer world. So on average, it looks like hurricane numbers will decrease.

That being said, this is based on the general climate conditions projected to occur across the tropics. The general conditions look like they will be less favorable, but climate models aren't doing hurricane modeling.
Quoting 411. boltdwright:



Just letting you know that the Wudnerground forecast uses Personal Weather Stations to generate forecasts and I find that often overestimates high temps and underestimates low temps.
This is true, but it probably won't affect the aforementioned beer consumption. Party on StormTrackerScott !!!!
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


could yeild some pretty frisky storms in the afternoon.



Hmmm, This goes through Sunday and doesnt even show .01 inches of rain for anywhere in FL. Hard for me to believe anything will be frisky besides me after a few beers at my cookout this Saturday. :0)



I see 30% chance of an isolated shower Sunday. I will welcome that if Tom Terry and I are sweating in 105 degree heat.

Link
Quoting 414. Llamaluvr:

This is true, but it probably won't affect the aforementioned beer consumption. Party on StormTrackerScott !!!!


Beer is always good in whatever weather. Drink up!
Quoting 413. Xyrus2000:



Science often flies in the face of common sense though. :)

Hurricanes are basically heat engines. In order for a heat engine to do work, there has to be a temperature differential. Without it, you just have a bunch of heat with no way to make it do anything useful. Hurricanes also require certain circumstances to form. You need relatively low shear and moist air for example. Right now it looks like the average shear will increase, and more dry dusty air (SAL) will blow across the tropics in a warmer world. So on average, it looks like hurricane numbers will decrease.

That being said, this is based on the general climate conditions projected to occur across the tropics. The general conditions look like they will be less favorable, but climate models aren't doing hurricane modeling.


I agree that although an increase in SSTs is a 'positive' for hurricanes, other factors might become more 'negative' in a warmer world, leading to a decrease. However, theory predicts that the African monsoon should spread northwards, so the southern Sahara might not produce as much dust. However, there's no evidence for increased rainfall in the Sahel, thus far.
92E



On another note.. Very interesting depiction of 2 tropical systems merging on the GEM. Probably wont happen but it is neat to look at.









Midrange on NAVGEM.

Tropical storm? Maybe.

422. VR46L
Could have some interesting weather here , don't often see thunderstorms




Arthur?
Quoting 424. HurricaneAndre:

Arthur?


384 Hours out. :P
Well here we go, it's summer. June, here we come. Near 85-100F daily in the SE.






Good morning/afternoon/evening folks. After yesterday's crazy weather today has been calmer so far but there are more thunderstorms forecast for tonight. Let's hope that they won't pack quite the punch like those of yesterday.

I found a video of an invisible tornado in Germany. It was only made visible by the nets that it sucked up from fields in the vicinity (nets to protect agricultural plantations). I'm trying to embed this.



The text below in German says that this tornado developed under a thunderstorm cell but without the characteristic condensation funnel. Its windspeed was esimated to be about 100-115 kph (or 62-72 mph) which damaged the roofs of about 10 houses.
Quoting yonzabam:


It wouldn't surprise me if micronutrient levels were decreased in plants as a result of the CO2 fertilisation effect. Increased CO2 increases carbohydrate, but not protein, and micronutrients are generally bound to protein and fibre, rather than the carbohydrate. This must have some effect on the creatures that eat them.
I don't think the blogger (Jim Bouldin) disagrees with that: his objection seems to be that there were obvious (to him) questions that should have been considered before the conclusions were reached, and that the scope of the study and results are narrower than is being publicized.
Quoting 425. Torito:



384 Hours out. :P
well yesterdays gfs run had it in the gulf already,today its changed...just something to keep an eye on next few weeks.
Quoting 424. HurricaneAndre:


Arthur?



This be come you see a area of low purser dos not mean it going to be a name. Storm in the mod runs. All so start learning two look at the time stampe on the mode runs that is 384hrs out wish is a long long ways a way
here is the latest summary from the aussie mets concerning el nino......one note of interest is found at the last paragraph concerning the IOD....even though computer models are predicting we'll have thresholds met by el nino by august...they're not expecting the IOD to be positive until our fall...it shows you that the effects are not instantaneous........

Tropical Pacific Ocean edges further toward El Niño
Issued on Tuesday 20 May 2014 | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO
The tropical Pacific Ocean continues a general trend toward El Niño, with just over half of the climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggesting El Niño thresholds will be exceeded by August. An El Niño ALERT remains in place, indicating at least a 70% chance of an El Niño developing in 2014.
The tropical Pacific Ocean surface has warmed steadily since February, with sea surface temperature anomalies increasing by 0.5 to 1.0 °C. For El Niño to be established and maintained, the sea surface needs to warm further, and be accompanied by a persistent weakening of the trade winds and a consistent increase in cloudiness near the Date Line. In the past fortnight, trade winds have generally been near normal, though have weakened once again in recent days.
El Niño has impacts on many parts of the world, for example, below-average rainfall in the western Pacific and Indonesian regions and increased rainfall in the central and eastern Pacific. For Australia, El Niño is usually associated with below-average rainfall over southern and eastern inland Australia, with about two thirds of El Niño events since 1900 causing major drought over large parts of the continent.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. Model outlooks suggest the IOD is most likely to remain neutral through winter, with two of the five models surveyed suggesting a positive IOD may develop during spring. Positive IOD events often coincide with El Niño and are typically associated with large parts of southern and central Australia experiencing lower rainfall than usual.
The animation of sub-surface temperature changes shows the progression of the warmer waters across the Pacific (which is known as a Kelvin wave). Downwelling Kelvin wave events are driven by westerly winds over the western tropical Pacific. This pool of warmer-than-average sub-surface water is expected to cause a further warming at the surface of the central and eastern tropical Pacific, which is likely to contribute to the formation of an El Niño during winter.

we finally have an official "hint" as to when the thresholds of an el nino will be met
the SOI is still not a believer in el nino......you would think that at this point we would see values in the negatives, yet it is still positive....





WFTV (Orlando news) is going with a high of 96 on Saturday. Still a long way out though.

http://www.wftv.com/s/weather/fiveday/
here's a pretty good explanation of why this event is not happening as rapidly as some would wish for

Trade winds
Westerly wind anomalies are present over the western equatorial Pacific, while trade winds are near-average along the equator in the central and eastern tropical Pacific (see anomaly map for the 5 days ending 18 May).
During La Niña events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds




another indicator that we're just not there yet

Cloudiness near the Date Line
Cloudiness near the Date Line has continued to fluctuate around values close to the long-term average during the past two weeks.
Cloudiness along the equator, near the Date Line, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Niño event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Niña event.
Quoting 435. sonofagunn:

WFTV (Orlando news) is going with a high of 96 on Saturday. Still a long way out though.

http://www.wftv.com/s/weather/fiveday/


Ouch. Scorching hot... Let me guess with RAIN too, just to make it that much more enjoyable....

And the Atlantic Hurricane season is just around the corner...
one thing i have noticed...is as we are coming to an end of the "spring fling"...a time where models do not do well giving accurate results.....we're seeing a shift back to values that were predicted late winter...

oh and super el nino?.....buwahahaha

Model outlooks
All international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that SSTs in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are likely to continue to warm into winter. Despite two climate models easing their prediction slightly over the past month, all but one of the eight models surveyed indicate that the equatorial Pacific is likely to exceed El Niño thresholds during the southern hemisphere spring. Half of the models show SSTs in the central equatorial Pacific considerably warmer than the threshold values by mid-spring.


Quoting 427. taistelutipu:

Good morning/afternoon/evening folks. After yesterday's crazy weather today has been calmer so far but there are more thunderstorms forecast for tonight. Let's hope that they won't pack quite the punch like those of yesterday.

I found a video of an invisible tornado in Germany. It was only made visible by the nets that it sucked up from fields in the vicinity (nets to protect agricultural plantations). I'm trying to embed this.



The text below in German says that this tornado developed under a thunderstorm cell but without the characteristic condensation funnel. Its windspeed was esimated to be about 100-115 kph (or 62-72 mph) which damaged the roofs of about 10 houses.
Here is one with plenty of " condensation "..:)..Be sure to turn up the volume, its worth a listen..

">
and lastly....from our own resident climate expert....doc rood

At the time of this blog the official Climate Prediction Center Advisory is “Chance of El Niño increases during the remainder of the year, exceeding 65% during summer.” Further, “There remains uncertainty as to exactly when El Niño will develop and an even greater uncertainty as to how strong it may become. This uncertainty is related to the inherently lower forecast skill of the models for forecasts made in the spring.” From Japanese Meteorological Agency, “It is likely that El Niño conditions will develop during the northern hemisphere summer and will continue to autumn.” From the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, “Climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest El Niño development is possible as early as July. These factors indicate that while El Niño in 2014 cannot be guaranteed, the likelihood of an event developing remains at least 70% and we are at El Niño ALERT level.” And from the International Research Institute, “During April through mid-May the observed ENSO conditions moved from warm-neutral to the borderline of a weak El Niño condition. Most of the ENSO prediction models indicate a continued warming trend, with a transition to sustained El Niño conditions by the early northern summer.” Note, none of these centers are predicting, yet, strong, super or monster. I’m not as smart as those others, so right now I am steering away from “monster,” and looking forward to what we learn about prediction, the climate as a whole and, of course, how we communicate our science.
El Ninos are usually associated with cold winters in northern Europe. Last time there was an El Nino (2009-10), the UK had its coldest and snowiest winter since the 60s. However, that was also the result of abnormal jet stream activity due to a warming Arctic.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if we get a repeat this winter. The abnormal jet stream isn't a periodical phenomenon, like El Nino. It's here to stay.
Quoting ricderr:
another indicator that we're just not there yet

Cloudiness near the Date Line
Cloudiness near the Date Line has continued to fluctuate around values close to the long-term average during the past two weeks.
Cloudiness along the equator, near the Date Line, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Niño event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Niña event.


Thanks for the analysis Ric! Its always nice to read the facts and not have to hear all the hype doom and gloom about how El Nino is happening as we speak. We are getting ready for 100 degree heat here in FL according to Tom Terry lol. I hope FL makes it through it.
Quoting 290. StormTrackerScott:

HOT. Record heat this weekend?





Ugh. :( I don't like the looks of that heat map. Gonna have to make sure the garden has plenty of water so it doesn't dry out. High today is supposed to be 87F, but I suspect it will get higher than that, since it always seems to get a little warmer than the forecast.
Quoting StormWx:


Thanks for the analysis Ric! Its always nice to read the facts and not have to hear all the hype doom and gloom about how El Nino is happening as we speak. We are getting ready for 100 degree heat here in FL according to Tom Terry lol. I hope FL makes it through it.


I think somehow we'll survive. :P
446. etxwx
If you haven't seen it, this morning's Washington Post Capitol Weather Gang has a post of Basehunters's time lapse video of a thunderstorm in Wyoming:
Wow, Wyoming: Surreal supercell thunderstorm time lapse
just another example of stupid hype in the press....nasa didn't say this event will be like '97-'98.....they said they noticed one aspect..just like they did in '97...it's like saying every afternoon thunderstorm is a hurricane because they both have wind and rain....

NASA Warns 'El Niño 2014 Phenomenon' May be Similar to 1997 Occurrence
Article

By Ma Evelyn Castino Quilas | May 20, 2014 2:46 PM EST
National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has issued a warning regarding El Niño 2014 that will be most likely similar to the 1997 phenomenon.



Regular monitoring every 10 days from NASA/French Space Agency Jason-2 satellite maps revealed there are massive ripples at sea level called "Kelvin waves" traveling from Australia across the Pacific Ocean to South America which could be a precursor of El Niño.

When trade winds abate for several months, Kelvin waves parade across the Pacific Ocean causing sea levels to rise, leaving warmer equatorial waters behind them.

According to an article from NASA Web site, NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory Climatologist Bill Patzert said, "A pattern of sea surface heights and temperatures has formed that reminds me of the way the Pacific looked in the spring of 1997."

The climatologist recalled the El Niño incident that took place in 1997-98 was a textbook example as the agency was still gathering data from the predecessor of Jason-2 satellite, the TOPEX/Poseidon. Sea surface maps showed a whitish bump, indicating a sea level some 10 centimeters higher than usual, moving along the equator from Australia to South America," he added.

Mike McPhaden of NOAA's Pacific Environmental Research Laboratories in Seattle said the data from Jason 2 satellite corroborated with the El Niño Watch that NOAA released on April.

He cited, "The same pattern is repeating in 2014. A series of Kelvin waves generated by localized west wind bursts in the western Pacific that began in mid-January 2014 are headed east. Excitement is building as a third weakening of the Pacific trade winds happened in mid-April."

Ocean and atmospheric scientists from both agencies are closely monitoring the trade winds in the Pacific Ocean.

"We can't yet say for sure that an El Niño will develop in 2014, or how big it might be," McPhaden cautioned.

"A much clearer result will be obtained in the next two to three months whether the recent developments captured is a herald of a major El Niño-or any El Niño at all.


Earlier this month, experts from Australia Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) raised the El Niño-Southern Oscillation tracker to ALERT level. Six out of the seven models from BOM forecasted that the El Niño will hit around by July which might be the strongest phenomenon in two decades.

With the looming El Niño, it is expected there will be increased risk of having fire and drought while there will be lesser tropical cyclones. Southern and inland portions of Australia will most likely have lesser rain in the winter and spring.

Meanwhile, the northern portion will have rainfall come September to January because the normal wet season and monsoon will arrive at a much later time. There will also have warmer temperature during the day and longer winter in the southern portion of Australia.
Also of note, today's the one-year anniversary of the devastating Moore EF5 tornado.
.
Thanks for the analysis Ric! Its always nice to read the facts and not have to hear all the hype doom and gloom about how El Nino is happening as we speak. We are getting ready for 100 degree heat here in FL according to Tom Terry lol. I hope FL makes it through it.


stormy...i've always been a firm believer that the experts do it best...also...that that the event itself is big enough that i don't need to make it bigger and more exciting than it already is.....i have found through my years here that those that feel the need to exaggerate look like fools more often than not...
Quoting 449. hydrus:

Another F-5..The Witchita Falls, TX Tornado April 10-1979...This looked hideous.
img src="">
Wichita Falls 1979 was an F4.

The Red River Valley Outbreak of April 10, 1979
Another beautiful FL day, check out the visible.


Temps in the lower 90s for the Orlando area this weekend, only a 20% chance of a shower so it looks like we stay dry going into June. Folks thinking the wet season is starting by next week are in for a surprise.
453. etxwx
From NPR:

Oklahoma's Latino Community Prepares For The Next Tornado
A recent report by the National Weather Service cited limited sources of Spanish-language information as one of the main reasons why last year's storms affected many Latino families, including the seven victims of the May 31 tornado who took shelter in a storm drain. (transcript and audio)

Despite A History Of Twisters, Moore, Okla., Keeps Growing
One year ago, the third violent tornado in 15 years struck Moore, Okla. But people aren't leaving the town; despite the devastation, more and more new residents are actually moving to Moore. (audio only)
Quoting 442. yonzabam:

El Ninos are usually associated with cold winters in northern Europe. Last time there was an El Nino (2009-10), the UK had its coldest and snowiest winter since the 60s. However, that was also the result of abnormal jet stream activity due to a warming Arctic.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if we get a repeat this winter. The abnormal jet stream isn't a periodical phenomenon, like El Nino. It's here to stay.

No, there is no relation at all. Which is why you could just pick a year. Pick winter 1997-98 or 1998-99 and you get two extremely mild winters, for instance.
Quoting 451. Barefootontherocks:

Wichita Falls 1979 was an F4.

The Red River Valley Outbreak of April 10, 1979
Thank you..I read somewhere it was considered a 5...It sure looked it..
456. etxwx
Non-technical article from The Week:
How accurate are weather forecasts?
By Mike Hammer, World Science Festival | May 19, 2014
Excerpt: Weather forecasting is the classic inexact science, relying on the complex mutual interactions of wind, currents, precipitation, tides, humidity, and temperature variations, and a million other variables across a planet that's rotating on its axis, revolving around its heat source, and tilted with regard to its plane of revolution. To say forecasting the weather is tricky is putting it mildly indeed.

In fact, it was while working on weather prediction that mathematician Edward Lorenz began to conceive Chaos Theory, the mathematical theory which says some systems, highly sensitive to initial conditions, are simply too complex to be predictable over the long term. Weather is the poster child for chaos theory: Its most famous idea, the "Butterfly Effect," posits that a butterfly flapping its wings in South America could have far-ranging repercussions for future weather around the world, like a tornado in Texas.

But weather forecasting is too important to be left to chance, and humans have been doing our best to predict the weather throughout history. How much closer have our sophisticated technology and global communication advances brought us to useful predictability? We decided to investigate.

Quoting 455. hydrus:

Thank you..I read somewhere it was considered a 5...It sure looked it..
Yes, it did. I studied that tornado a few years ago - the meteorological history of the day and the tornado's destruction and aftermath. Even a 4 is violent beyond words, and this one hit a good-sized metro area in the Pre-NexRad Age.

Thanks for the comeback.
Quoting 454. cRRKampen:


No, there is no relation at all. Which is why you could just pick a year. Pick winter 1997-98 or 1998-99 and you get two extremely mild winters, for instance.


Really? The UK Met Office map of temperature anomalies during El Ninos shows colder winter temperatures in northern Europe.

Quoting 451. Barefootontherocks:

Wichita Falls 1979 was an F4.

The Red River Valley Outbreak of April 10, 1979
If you watch the youtube, it shows a middle school made of concrete and steel leveled to the ground...Link
etx....from the end of that article...

So while time and technology have greatly enhanced the accuracy of forecasting, the pace of advance has slowed to a crawl of minor incremental gains. Like the economy, another extremely complex system, the weather has yielded its secrets about the here and now, but this extremely complex system is resisting our efforts to accurately predict the future.
it makes you wonder.....are we as advanced as we are going to get????
Quoting 359. sar2401:


Whoever wrote that article apparently never heard of things like evaporation. Maybe he should stick to things like agriculture.
There's also sublimation, which is accelerated in higher air temps over the ice, and would not show up as sea level change until it fell as rain, but a higher rate of sublimation will probably boost atmospheric water vapor faster than evaporation at high latitudes, since the cold water inhibits evaporation.
462. etxwx
So much devastation, lives and livelihoods lost...
Drowned livestock pose new hazard in flood-hit Balkans
by Jovana Gec and Aida Cerkez, The Associated Press via CTV
BELGRADE, Serbia -- A new calamity emerged Tuesday in the flood-hit Balkans even as emergency workers battled overflowing rivers and evacuated thousands: tons of drowned livestock were posing a health hazard.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 460. ricderr:

etx....from the end of that article...

So while time and technology have greatly enhanced the accuracy of forecasting, the pace of advance has slowed to a crawl of minor incremental gains. Like the economy, another extremely complex system, the weather has yielded its secrets about the here and now, but this extremely complex system is resisting our efforts to accurately predict the future.
it makes you wonder.....are we as advanced as we are going to get????


Quantum computing will most likely be the next big leap, boosting computer power and therefore making things like complex modeling much more attainable. We still have some forward progress to make, Ric, don't jump off the train just yet. :)
Quoting 459. hydrus:

If you watch the youtube, it shows a middle school made of concrete and steel leveled to the ground...Link
Hydrus, Hope you saw my reply at 457. Please forgive I do not feel like discussing violent tornadoes any more today. TIA
Have a good one.