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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Slow-Motion Collapse of West Antarctic Glaciers is Unstoppable, 2 New Studies Say

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 6:01 PM GMT on May 13, 2014

Human-caused global warming has set in motion an unstoppable slow-motion collapse of the glaciers in West Antarctica of massive scale and power, said scientists at a NASA press conference and press release on Monday. The scientists, led by glaciologist Eric Rignot of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory/the University of California, Irvine, analyzed 19 years of satellite data to show that the fast-melting glaciers that drain into West Antarctica's Amundsen Sea had passed a point of no return, since their bottoms are grounded below sea level. The glaciers had been lodged on "pinning points" on the bedrock--projections that snagged the glaciers from underneath and kept them from sliding toward the sea. Melting due to warmer ocean waters has been eating away the glaciers from beneath, freeing them from their pinning points, and setting in motion a slow-motion collapse that appears "unstoppable", Rignot said at the press conference. The glaciers contain enough ice to raise global sea level by 4 feet (1.2 meters) in a few hundred years at their current rate of melting, Rignot added. The research has been accepted for publication in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.


Figure 1. Thwaites Glacier, the West Antarctic glacier that is the most serious threat to bring large levels of sea level rise this century. Image credit: NASA.

Computer modeling study shows same result
A separate paper published on Monday in Science, Marine Ice Sheet Collapse Potentially Under Way for the Thwaites Glacier Basin, West Antarctica, came to a similar result, but using computer modeling instead of observations. The researchers, led by Ian Joughin of the University of Washington, found that West Antarctica's fast-moving Thwaites Glacier will likely disappear in a matter of centuries, raising sea level by nearly 2 feet. “All of our simulations show it will retreat at less than a millimeter of sea level rise per year for a couple of hundred years, and then, boom, it just starts to really go,” Joughin said. The Thwaites Glacier acts as a linchpin on the rest of the ice sheet, which contains enough ice to cause another 10 to 13 feet (3 to 4 meters) of global sea level rise. For comparison, 119,000 - 126,000 years ago, during the period before the most recent ice age, global sea levels were 16 - 33 feet (5 - 10 meters) higher than at present. Temperatures at that time were less than 2°C warmer than "pre-industrial" levels, and we are on track to warm the planet at least that much this century.


Figure 2. Historical global sea level rise from 1700 - 2012 as compiled by the 2013 IPCC report, along with predicted sea level rise from the IPCC and from a group of 26 ice sheet experts (Bamber and Asplinall, 2013). Sea level rose 7.5" (19 cm) between 1901 - 2012, with the rate of rise nearly doubling over the past 20 years. The low-end RCP 2.6 IPCC forecast corresponds to global warming of just 1°C between 1995 - 2100, which will be nearly impossible to achieve. Humanity is currently on pace to warm the planet more than IPCC's worst-case RCP 8.5 scenario (3.7°C between 1995 - 2100.) Before Monday's research results were announced, the IPCC sea level rise estimates were already viewed as quite conservative by the majority of sea level rise experts; see the write-up at real climate.org of the Bamber and Asplinall, 2013 study.

IPCC sea level rise estimates too low?
At the press conference, the scientists questioned the sea level rise estimates made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in September 2013 as being too low. That report projected that sea level will rise by an extra 0.9 - 3.2' (26 to 98 cm) by 2100. The IPCC did not fully account for potential melting in Antarctica, and decided not to include estimates from at least five published studies that had higher numbers, including two studies with rises of 2 meters (6.6 feet.) This is in contradiction to NOAA's December 2012 U.S. National Climate Assessment Report, which has 6.6 feet (2.0 meters) as its worst-case sea level rise scenario for 2100.


Video 1. ScienceCasts: No Turning Back--West Antarctic Glaciers in Irreversible Decline

Jeff Masters

Sea level rise Climate Change Glaciers

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 494. CuriousAboutClimate:

what is this indycarman talking about? anyone know?


Initially I think he's referring to Dr. Masters' blog, and the decision of the IPCC to not include the info from 5 studies showing higher Antarctic melt rates. After that, though...sounds like generic "anti-science/ice age is coming" statements.
LOL..."Gish gallop"...had to look that one up
Interesting stuff on Google when you search for "Slow Motion Collapse".
Quoting MahFL:


Perhaps you assume things of me you have no information on.
Also the pic is of displaced people due to internal conflict, not a picture of a famine.
I simply asked the question; I did not assume the answer. What is your answer, BTW?

As for the photo, the article pointed out that the large number of internal refugees, as well as the fighting that displaced them, contribute to the threat of famine:

One problem is that the three states that produce most of the food for the rest of South Sudan—Jonglei, Upper Nile, and Unity—are also the ones where fighting has been heaviest.

In Upper Nile State, the country's breadbasket and the source of most of its sorghum—a drought-resistant grass grown across much of Africa—internally displaced refugees have flocked to the banks of the Nile River to escape the fighting.

There, they have been able to sustain themselves by fishing, hunting, and retrieving edible bulbs from water lilies that grow in the marshes. But when the river floods next month, they will face further displacement—and disease.

"Flooding will hugely increase the chances of epidemic waterborne diseases, including cholera," says Doune Porter, chief spokesperson for UNICEF in Juba. "The fighting is preventing farmers from planting crops, and time is really running out on them now."
Quoting barbamz:
#472. Poor little Sar to be yelled at in German, lol.



Current rain in Europe. Watch all the wet stuff (Yvette) to the lower right over the Balkans.

SYNOPSIS from Estofex


Satellite loops reveal trough crossing much of Central Europe with its axis stretching towards Italy as of Tuesday evening. During Wednesday, trough will continue eastwards, quickly transforming into a cut-off low, centered over Serbia by evening hours. To the south of the center, pronounced mid and upper tropospheric jet-streak is simulated with windspeeds over 35 m/s at 500 hPa level. To the west, a ridge will cover much of eastern Atlantic.

Closer to the surface, deepening surface low over the Balkans with attendant strengthening frontal system will likely result in high local precipitation amounts. Ahead of the cold front, in the WAA regime, scattered to widespread DMC is forecast in a belt from Macedonia towards Southern Romania. It is this region that deserves close inspection.

Besides that, a very steep pressure gradient will arise between high over E Atlantic and surface low over Balkans - with belt of 25 to 30 m/s of 850 hPa flow running from S Poland towards Hungary by Wednesday evening. Even steeper gradients are simulated for Thursday.


And now they've added a Mesoscale Discussion for Romania, Bulgaria and northern Greece.





Yes, it was terrible. I also learned more words in German from my dad but I'd better not post them here. :-)

That weather map looks like the start of my month in Slovenia. It never stopped raining except for a few days when it was unbearably hot. We were going to hike Mt. Triglav but ended up hiding out for three days in a Tito era hotel as the rain literally poured down the entire time. There was even flooding, which is rare in that Karst region. Like magic, however, the rain ended as soon as we crossed the border in Italy. I really like Slovenia but that was one long month.
Quoting 503. Thunderfan:

Interesting stuff on Google when you search for "Slow Motion Collapse".

This raises another interesting point about that report on the glaciers of West Antarctica -- the forecasts/predictions for the rate of change in the Arctic a few years ago were for a much slower rate of melting, both of the sea ice and of the Greenland ice sheet and the Canadian and Siberian permafrost. It is now clear that all those rates are much faster than forecast. So what can we expect to happen in Antarctica? "Slow motion collapse"? Or possible rapid and catastrophic collapse? The potential for mayhem around the world as a result is much greater than for the Arctic melting.
Quoting 506. CaneFreeCR:


This raises another interesting point about that report on the glaciers of West Antarctica -- the forecasts/predictions for the rate of change in the Arctic a few years ago were for a much slower rate of melting, both of the sea ice and of the Greenland ice sheet and the Canadian and Siberian permafrost. It is now clear that all those rates are much faster than forecast. So what can we expect to happen in Antarctica? "Slow motion collapse"? Or possible rapid and catastrophic collapse? The potential for mayhem around the world as a result is much greater than for the Arctic melting.


Yep. It's all conjecture based on assumptions and guesstimates. Don't be surprised if there's a catastrophic collapse of at least part of the West Antarctic ice sheet in a few decades. On the other hand, I wouldn't be surprised either if it just meted away in an orderly fashion for centuries. No one knows.
Cool invention:

ENDLESS ELECTRICITY: Here's A Way Of Turning America's Roads Into Gigantic Solar Panels

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/solar-roadways-prof ile-2014-5#ixzz31iD22xrV



There are about 31,251 square miles of roads, parking lots, driveways, playgrounds, bike paths, and sidewalks in the lower 48 states. If Julie and Scott Brusaw have their way, they will all someday be replaced with solar panels.

For the better part of a decade, the Idaho couple has been working on prototyping an industrial-strength panel that could withstand the weight of even the largest trucks. They now appear to have cracked the formula, developing a specially textured glass coating for the panels that can not only bear tremendous loads but also support standard tire traction.

By their reckoning, at peak installation their panelized roads could produce more than three times the electricity consumed in the U.S.

The material could power electric vehicles through a receiver plate mounted beneath the vehicle and a transmitter plate is installed in the road.



The project has already received two phases of funding from the U.S. Federal Highway Administration, and last year featured in Google's Moonshot series. They're now incorporated as Solar Roadways.

Right now, they're looking to raise $1 million on IndieGogo to move beyond the prototype and into production. Since announcing the campaign three weeks ago, they've received $112,000.

If you're wondering why they're choosing crowdfunding given the potentially large interest from investors, so have many others. Their reason for doing so is rather noble. As they explain on their website (via John Aziz):

The idea to launch a crowdfunding campaign came to us from so many supporters that we looked into it. We have always been concerned about protecting our vision to implement this in the way that we think will have the most benefit: creating American jobs rather than outsourcing and then adding manufacturing facilities in other countries. That way we could help the economies everywhere providing many thousands of jobs. We have a vision for the way our facilities will be - campus like - with a positive atmosphere. We want to use as many recycled materials as we can and keep our manufacturing process as green as possible. We could go on, but you get the picture. If we can raise enough funds here, we won't have to take on an investor and we won't have to worry about losing our focus. If you like our vision and want to help, we'd be honored to have you in our corner.

Here is an artist's rendering of what it someday could look like:



It could also be used in parking lots:



Link

The future it's here.
Tropical storms migrate toward poles

Tropical storms have been migrating northwards and southwards towards the poles for the past 30 years, a paper in Nature says.

People are becoming less likely to face the worst of a hurricane or typhoon if they live close to the Equator, and more likely if they live on the edges of the tropics.

The storms are reaching their maximum intensity 52-63km further north and south every decade.

The paper, led by the US agency Noaa, underlines a previous finding that the area defined as the Tropics is clearly expanding.

The researchers believe humans are influencing the changes - with climate change, ozone depletion and aerosols playing a part. They cannot yet be certain which factor is most significant.

The lead author, James Kossin from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (Noaa) National Climatic Data Center, says the research is based on observations of the point of maximum intensity of the storm.

He told BBC News: "By the time a serious storm reaches maximum intensity, someone has picked it up and is monitoring it, so we can be pretty confident of this data.

"What we can't be sure of yet is exactly what's causing the trend. There is compelling evidence that the expansion of the tropics is attributable to a combination of human activities, but we don't know which is the primary factor.


Read more here.
A few severe thunderstorms are popping up over South Central Al, and the storms continue to creep east. There's also a small batch of storms just to the south of me and moving north. It's still hot and humid with perfect conditions for thunderstorms. So far, most of the parameters are remaining below severe level but that may change as the afternoon progresses.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1215 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
NORTH CENTRAL COVINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
CRENSHAW COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 115 PM CDT

* AT 1210 PM CDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS OVER 60 MPH WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES SOUTH OF GREENVILLE TO 15 MILES NORTH OF
ANDALUSIA TO 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF ANDALUSIA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 25 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING FLOODING. DO NOT
DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. PERSONS IN FLOOD PRONE
AREAS SHOULD MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
Two Tornado Watches for Ohio, Kentucky and bits of West Virginia and Tennessee.

I'm a bit surprised because these areas are only in the 5%. It looked like the SPC was trying to be a little more conservative with putting Severe boxes instead of Tornado boxes when the risk was rather low for tornadoes. I suppose this is a bit of a change from that.





Hello All.  My oldest Daughter is graduating from Yale this weekend and we are headed to Connecticut for the week tomorrow. Have to take up a minivan (to bring all her stuff and furniture we dropped off 4 years ago back to Florida)  and will be cruising through several States up I-85 and across Penn to New York and up and back.  Love these road trips because of all the beauty from the mountains in the Carolinas and Virginia (Roanoke overnight) to the Hudson River Valley; and we usually come back down the East Coast and overnight in Charleston or Savanna.

Everyone be Good and Be Cool; I see Yall in a week or so and let you know if we encountered any interesting weather and will take pictures with the cell phone.  On a weather related note, it looks the E-Pac is priming for the start of their season tomorrow............................

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/rb-l.jpg
Quoting 509. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Cool invention:

ENDLESS ELECTRICITY: Here's A Way Of Turning America's Roads Into Gigantic Solar Panels

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/solar-roadways-prof ile-2014-5#ixzz31iD22xrV



There are about 31,251 square miles of roads, parking lots, driveways, playgrounds, bike paths, and sidewalks in the lower 48 states. If Julie and Scott Brusaw have their way, they will all someday be replaced with solar panels.

For the better part of a decade, the Idaho couple has been working on prototyping an industrial-strength panel that could withstand the weight of even the largest trucks. They now appear to have cracked the formula, developing a specially textured glass coating for the panels that can not only bear tremendous loads but also support standard tire traction.

By their reckoning, at peak installation their panelized roads could produce more than three times the electricity consumed in the U.S.

The material could power electric vehicles through a receiver plate mounted beneath the vehicle and a transmitter plate is installed in the road.



The project has already received two phases of funding from the U.S. Federal Highway Administration, and last year featured in Google's Moonshot series. They're now incorporated as Solar Roadways.

Right now, they're looking to raise $1 million on IndieGogo to move beyond the prototype and into production. Since announcing the campaign three weeks ago, they've received $112,000.

If you're wondering why they're choosing crowdfunding given the potentially large interest from investors, so have many others. Their reason for doing so is rather noble. As they explain on their website (via John Aziz):

The idea to launch a crowdfunding campaign came to us from so many supporters that we looked into it. We have always been concerned about protecting our vision to implement this in the way that we think will have the most benefit: creating American jobs rather than outsourcing and then adding manufacturing facilities in other countries. That way we could help the economies everywhere providing many thousands of jobs. We have a vision for the way our facilities will be - campus like - with a positive atmosphere. We want to use as many recycled materials as we can and keep our manufacturing process as green as possible. We could go on, but you get the picture. If we can raise enough funds here, we won't have to take on an investor and we won't have to worry about losing our focus. If you like our vision and want to help, we'd be honored to have you in our corner.

Here is an artist's rendering of what it someday could look like:



It could also be used in parking lots:



Link

The future it's here.


Solutions are needed.



"We are a flexible and innovative species
And we have the capacity to adapt and modify our behavior
Now, we most certainly have to do so if we're to deal with climate
change. It's the biggest challenge we have yet faced.
"

David Attenborough

They will replace oil like a bad dream.

Watch how the Fossil Fuel Industry Squeals and Howl thru 2014
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Cool invention:

ENDLESS ELECTRICITY: Here's A Way Of Turning America's Roads Into Gigantic Solar Panels


Caleb, this site is always going to trash your links if you just copy and paste. You have to use the "link" function to get it right, so here's the correct link to the article. It might be possible, someday, that this site could actually infer a link and create it as such. Most web software figured this out about 10 years ago. We might get it about the time of the glacier collapse.
now i saw this while reading up on el nino....but look further east and note the gulf and the atlantic that you can see.......why the height anomalies there also???


Quoting CaneFreeCR:

This raises another interesting point about that report on the glaciers of West Antarctica -- the forecasts/predictions for the rate of change in the Arctic a few years ago were for a much slower rate of melting, both of the sea ice and of the Greenland ice sheet and the Canadian and Siberian permafrost. It is now clear that all those rates are much faster than forecast. So what can we expect to happen in Antarctica? "Slow motion collapse"? Or possible rapid and catastrophic collapse? The potential for mayhem around the world as a result is much greater than for the Arctic melting.

One thing to keep in mind is that the predicted changes in the Antarctic are the result of a few studies. There will have to be more studies to confirm the findings and level of certainty of these predictions.
Anyone think we have a decent chance to get a June storm this year?
Quoting ricderr:
now i saw this while reading up on el nino....but look further east and note the gulf and the atlantic that you can see.......why the height anomalies there also???



There was also quite a large cold pool just north of the equator in 1997 that's missing now. From a quick perusal of the records, it appears that the continental US didn't have a brutal winter in 1996-97, and we didn't have the deep penetration of cold fronts we're seeing this year. I assume that the Gulf and Atlantic just happened to be warmer for reasons unrelated to El Nino. Those anomalies certainly didn't do much to help the 1997 Atlantic hurricane season, and that cold pool didn't hinder the East Pacific hurricane season. So much for SST's being all that vital for hurricanes.
someone......said i should follow eric blake from the nhc.....gotta wonder about this boy...



Eric Blake @EricBlake12 · May 6
Pre-season EPac disturbance looks decent


and he links to this


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 081738
TWOEP

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1040 AM PDT THU MAY 8 2014

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ZIHUATENEJO MEXICO
HAVE CONTINUED TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS HAVE BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

THIS IS THE LAST PLANNED SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ON THIS
SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Quoting opal92nwf:
Anyone think we have a decent chance to get a June storm this year?

Not as long as we keep getting these intrusions by cold fronts out into the Gulf.
Quoting 524. sar2401:


Not as long as we keep getting these intrusions by cold fronts out into the Gulf.

You mean those prevent tropical systems from being able to form and move north unhindered?
Quoting 520. opal92nwf:

Anyone think we have a decent chance to get a June storm this year?
Yes
Quoting opal92nwf:




Can't get a much worse TCHP for mid-May in the Gulf.

Quoting opal92nwf:

You mean those prevent tropical systems from being able to form and move north unhindered?

For the Gulf, absolutely. It's always possible for a depression to form in the Gulf of Honduras but, between the shear and cool SST's, it would be very difficult for one to get in the Gulf and do anything but take a left in the BOC and die.
Quoting 527. sar2401:


Can't get a much worse TCHP for mid-May in the Gulf.



Last year's
13 May 2012
13 May 2011

PDO value for April 2014 is 1.13. The chart is just a simplistic look at April PDO values only. Maybe the so-called "PDO" is better described as a "variation" instead of an oscillation, and maybe it isn't always so "decadal", but whatever it is, it is in the Pacific Ocean, we are sure of that.
Quoting 532. guygee:


PDO value for April 2014 is 1.13. The chart is just a simplistic look at April PDO values only. Maybe the so-called "PDO" is better described as a "variation" instead of an oscillation, and maybe it isn't always so "decadal", but whatever it is, it is in the Pacific Ocean, we are sure of that.



That all ready been posted so we no now we wait for May
Quoting 509. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Cool invention:


Cool, but rooftops seem to make more sense than roadways unless I'm missing something. Less debris, vehicles, and shade to deal with. And you don't need this extra super-tough coating on top (which is likely expensive and blocks some light).
My area's under a Tornado watch until 9pm this evening. The clouds have cleared and as a result, the dew points are quickly rising; nice fuel for thunderstorms.
Quoting DCSwithunderscores:


By "TOTALLY bogus" and "SOLELY on assumptions", are you making the assumption that no measurements were actually done, and that well-established laws of physics weren't used at all?

I was referring to their conclusions, not their measurements.
Thanks!

Travel safely wannabe.
Quoting 532. guygee:


PDO value for April 2014 is 1.13. The chart is just a simplistic look at April PDO values only. Maybe the so-called "PDO" is better described as a "variation" instead of an oscillation, and maybe it isn't always so "decadal", but whatever it is, it is in the Pacific Ocean, we are sure of that.


Interesting. I have to admit the PDO is a gap in my education, but I'll get around to looking it up on Wiki sometime. What struck me immediately about the chart was the particularly negative phase from the late 40s to the late 70s. This coincides exactly with an unexplained period of global cooling, despite rising CO2 levels.
Quoting 527. sar2401:


Can't get a much worse TCHP for mid-May in the Gulf.


2011/2012/2013 for comparison:









Seems to be some quite high values in the Carribean though









Will be interesting to see how high the TCHP will be during the peak of the season.

Links for images here.
Quoting 528. sar2401:


For the Gulf, absolutely. It's always possible for a depression to form in the Gulf of Honduras but, between the shear and cool SST's, it would be very difficult for one to get in the Gulf and do anything but take a left in the BOC and die.
I disagree most early storms affect the Eastern Gulf, cold fronts push em that way.

Hurricane Alma



Formed June 4, 1966
Dissipated June 13, 1966
Highest winds 1-minute sustained:
125 mph (205 km/h)
Lowest pressure 970 mbar (hPa); 28.64 inHg
Fatalities 91 total
Damage $210.1 million (1966 USD)
Areas affected Nicaragua, Honduras, Cuba, Florida, Georgia, The Carolinas, East Coast of the United States

Link

4 years later Alma hit FL. again.



Formed May 17, 1970
Dissipated May 26, 1970
Highest winds 1-minute sustained:
80 mph (130 km/h)
Lowest pressure 993 mbar (hPa); 29.32 inHg
Fatalities 8 total
Areas affected Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Cuba, Southeast United States

Quoting 498. SuzK:



15 years of reserves puts us directly at the outer limits of industrial society as outlined by Richard Duncan: Link

1930-2030 15 years of oil left. Renewables never looked so good.


Huge, huge difference between booked reserves and what actually still exists in the ground. That's why those filthy, greedy oil companies spend billions on exploration programs. It's called reserve replacement.
Quoting 527. sar2401:


Can't get a much worse TCHP for mid-May in the Gulf.




It always appears relatively low in most of the gulf because the gulf is shallow. Even when the whole gulf has water temps in the upper 80's in late August TCHP will look low accept for in the deepest parts of the gulf. When Charley rapidly deepened from a category 2 to a 4 off the coast of Florida in just a few hours, the TCHP map made it appear like there wasn't anything impressive in the eastern gulf. This is because the steaming 90-93 water temps that helped fuel the rapid deepening is in part of the gulf where the water is shallow.

The map can be deceiving if you don't take into account how shallow most of the gulf is.
Quoting Envoirment:


2011/2012/2013 for comparison:









Seems to be some quite high values in the Carribean though









Will be interesting to see how high the TCHP will be during the peak of the season.

Links for images here.

Unless something changes fast, which isn't too likely, the Caribbean is the best hope for a June storm. The usual path from the Gulf of Honduras into the Gulf of Mexico doesn't look promising, so any storm that does develop has a better than even chance of hanging around the southern Caribbean and then doubling back over into Central America.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Indications that Orlando will be in the 95 to 98 range toward the end of next week. That means the heat index will likely be in the 105 range. Every year we get some of our hottest weather during the year just right before the rainy season starts. I also wouldn't be surprised to see some areas crack 100 in C FL.



I have to disagree with this hyped alleged heat wave to hit in 6-10 days. It appears we will be cooling down Scott, not heating up. But hey, you can only hope for extremes lol.

My opinion is that we will not see 100, and that we will see normal to below average temps. Based of course on this, instead of STSWS model.

What a coincidence some storm names seem to be attracted to a certain area.

Tropical Storm Allison (1989)



Tropical Storm Allison (2001)



FYI, bubba lol. The lows in CFL late next week in the 60s. Nice and comfy.

Quoting 544. StormWx:



I have to disagree with this hyped alleged heat wave to hit in 6-10 days. It appears we will be cooling down Scott, not heating up. But hey, you can only hope for extremes lol.

My opinion is that we will not see 100, and that we will see normal to below average temps. Based of course on this, instead of STSWS model.


I agree 100 degrees is a rare feat in FL. the most likely places for it to happen though is Orlando and Tallahassee as those areas are far enough inland away from the coast.
Quoting Jedkins01:


It always appears low in the gulf because the gulf is shallow. Even when the whole gulf has water temps in the upper 80's in late August TCHP will look low accept for in the deepest parts of the gulf. When Charley rapidly deepened from a category 2 to a 4 off the coast of Florida in just a few hours, the TCHP map made it appear like there wasn't anything impressive in the eastern gulf. This is because the water is so shallow, that the steaming 90-93 water temps that helped fuel the rapid deepening is in part of the gulf where the water is shallow.

The map can be deceiving if you don't take into account how shallow most of the gulf is.

The TCHP calculations and methodology changed in 2008 to take into account the shallower waters of the Gulf, so the TCHP potential in the Gulf is about equal to how it's now calculated in the Atlantic. Link
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
225 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
ASHLAND COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF ASHLAND...
SOUTHEASTERN RICHLAND COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO...

* UNTIL 300 PM EDT

* AT 220 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES EAST OF
BELLVILLE...OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MANSFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
LOUDONVILLE...HAYESVILLE AND POLK

Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
I agree 100 degrees is a rare feat in FL. the most likely places for it to happen though is Orlando and Tallahassee as those areas are far enough inland away from the coast.


Yep, it does happen occasionally in CFL though. Add in the humidity and its like a sauna :o)

Just not gonna happen in May though.
All-time Record Hottest Temperature Ever Recorded in Orlando is 103 Degrees

The hottest temperature ever officially recorded in the city of Orlando is 103 degrees, which occurred on September 8, 1921.

It might be surprising to some, but 100 degree days are relatively rare in Orlando. Since 1892, the city has only had about three dozen days when the temperature reached or exceeded 100 degrees.
Quoting 546. StormWx:

FYI, bubba lol. The lows in CFL late next week in the 60s. Nice and comfy.




Just an FYI, the word bubba in my native language Hindi (major language of India) means my "love" so I'm dying laughing when people calls each other bubba on here.

Some strong thunderstorms are headed for tampa bay from the southeAst and a sea breeze is visible on radar over tampa bay. The storms will collide with the sea breeze in about an hour and should produce much stronger storms for tampa bay.
Quoting ricderr:
All-time Record Hottest Temperature Ever Recorded in Orlando is 103 Degrees

The hottest temperature ever officially recorded in the city of Orlando is 103 degrees, which occurred on September 8, 1921.

It might be surprising to some, but 100 degree days are relatively rare in Orlando. Since 1892, the city has only had about three dozen days when the temperature reached or exceeded 100 degrees.


Thanks Ric thats interesting stuff. Its about that time of year where 90 is the norm around here. Its the humidity that gets you.
Quoting StPetersburgFL:


Just an FYI, the word bubba in my native language Hindi (major language of India) means my "love" so I'm dying laughing when people calls each other bubba on here.

Some strong thunderstorms are headed for tampa bay from the southeAst and a sea breeze is visible on radar over tampa bay. The storms will collide with the sea breeze in about an hour and should produce much stronger storms for tampa bay.


Thats funny! When i call people bubba its more of a nickname, kinda like 'sport' and 'chief'. I can use all of them in one sentence.

"Sorry bubba, its not gonna get to 100 degrees next week sport. Try again chief". :o)
Just an FYI, the word bubba in my native language Hindi (major language of India) means my "love" so I'm dying laughing when people calls each other bubba on here.

thank you....i only use bubba.....here or anywhere else in a positive way........glad to hear when i'm calling my kids bubba....at least somebody won't think of a drunken southerner with his belly hanging out
Quoting 552. StPetersburgFL:



Just an FYI, the word bubba in my native language Hindi (major language of India) means my "love" so I'm dying laughing when people calls each other bubba on here.

Some strong thunderstorms are headed for tampa bay from the southeAst and a sea breeze is visible on radar over tampa bay. The storms will collide with the sea breeze in about an hour and should produce much stronger storms for tampa bay.


What an insightful first post :-)
Material for our doc's follow up on the drought in California (or has it been finished while I was away?):

Water extraction for human use boosts California quakes
By Matt McGrath Environment correspondent, BBC News, 14 May 2014 Last updated at 17:08 GMT
Extracting water for human activities is increasing the number of small earthquakes being triggered in California.
A new study suggests that the heavy use of ground water for pumping and irrigation is causing mountains to lift and valleys to subside.
The scientists say this depletion of the water is increasing seismic activity along the San Andreas fault.
They worry that over time this will hasten the occurrence of large quakes.
The report has been published in the journal Nature. ...

Dr Amos believes the study shows that we need to think more broadly about the impact of our actions in relation to nature.
"Human activities are changing things that we hadn't appreciated before - its a wake up call to the far reaching implications for the things that we are doing that may affect systems that we didn't know that we
could affect."


Whole article see link above.
Typhoons Moving Toward Poles, Scientists Say
The shift in location of tropical storms is seen in historical records.


Tropical storms appear headed for the Poles, peaking in ferocity at successively higher latitudes over the past three decades, according to a new study in the journal Nature.

Link
TORNADO WARNING for east-central Ashland and western Wayne Counties in OH! More storms initiating to the S and SW of Columbus as well. Tornado watch in effect for this region.
TVN storm chaser Ray Bohac will be activating his live stream soon in OH at http://tvnweather.com/live
Quoting 414. MahFL:



That is over several centuries though, so don't lose any sleep over it.


I wouldn't , except these studies follow the same pattern of every other major chuck of ice on the planet.
Quoting 556. LAbonbon:



What an insightful first post :-)


Why thank u! Yea I've lurked for a while but the high rain chance for me today has got me excited :) big storms just east of tampa bay whoo :)
Quoting 543. sar2401:


Unless something changes fast, which isn't too likely, the Caribbean is the best hope for a June storm. The usual path from the Gulf of Honduras into the Gulf of Mexico doesn't look promising, so any storm that does develop has a better than even chance of hanging around the southern Caribbean and then doubling back over into Central America.

Its been a brutal winter for most of the GOM area, so TCHP will be low for the start of the season. The Caribbean, however, wasn't hit by the brutality of winter, and it really hasn't had much in the way of high trade winds this winter, leading the deeper waters to get mighty toasty.
Study shows tropical cyclone intensity shifting poleward

Excerpt:

The latitude at which tropical cyclones reach their greatest intensity is gradually shifting from the tropics toward the poles at rates of about 33 to 39 miles per decade, according to a study published today (May 14, 2014) in the journal Nature.
Quoting StPetersburgFL:


Just an FYI, the word bubba in my native language Hindi (major language of India) means my "love" so I'm dying laughing when people calls each other bubba on here.

Some strong thunderstorms are headed for tampa bay from the southeAst and a sea breeze is visible on radar over tampa bay. The storms will collide with the sea breeze in about an hour and should produce much stronger storms for tampa bay.

You lucked out. Welcome to the one place on the web that just exudes love. :-)
Quoting 554. StormWx:



Thats funny! When i call people bubba its more of a nickname, kinda like 'sport' and 'chief'. I can use all of them in one sentence.

"Sorry bubba, its not gonna get to 100 degrees next week sport. Try again chief". :o)



Lol yea bubba once I was in Orlando a few years ago visiting family and it was 101 degrees in mid June that was hot stuff bubba!
Quoting 538. yonzabam:



Interesting. I have to admit the PDO is a gap in my education, but I'll get around to looking it up on Wiki sometime. What struck me immediately about the chart was the particularly negative phase from the late 40s to the late 70s. This coincides exactly with an unexplained period of global cooling, despite rising CO2 levels.


Actually it is explained. Sulfur dioxide. From the period of 1940 to 1970 there was a MASSIVE increase in the amount of anthropogenic sulfur emissions across the world. Sulfur dioxide produces sulfuric acid based aerosols in our atmosphere which block incoming IR radiation. The world peaked in sulfur emissions in 1970. Since then, many countries have enacted clean air regulations which have done a good job of reducing sulfur emissions.

Cleaner air and less acid rain are good things, but the reduced SO2 is allowing the once hidden warming to show up. As SO2 emissions are reduced even further the warming effect from our addition GHG input will become even more pronounced.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Study shows tropical cyclone intensity shifting poleward

Excerpt:

The latitude at which tropical cyclones reach their greatest intensity is gradually shifting from the tropics toward the poles at rates of about 33 to 39 miles per decade, according to a study published today (May 14, 2014) in the journal Nature.


I'm not surprised, we've been guessing as much the last few years given the unusual amount of activity we've been seeing above 30N. It's like the MDR is shifting northward.
NWS expecting flooding:

Critical Weather Day Has Been Declared

START: 1200Z Thu May 15 2014
END: 1800Z Sat May 17 2014
TYPE: Regional
WHO: NCEP, NWSTG, NCF, NWS Eastern Region
REASON: Significant risk of flooding across much of the Eastern U.S. from the Appalachians through the Mid-Atlantic...Northeast...and into New England.


Link
Quoting 568. CybrTeddy:



I'm not surprised, we've been guessing as much the last few years given the unusual amount of activity we've been seeing above 30N. It's like the MDR is shifting northward.


Well, in another article on this:

The amount of poleward migration varies by region. The greatest migration is found in the northern and southern Pacific and South Indian Oceans, but there is no evidence that the peak intensity of Atlantic hurricanes has migrated poleward in the past 30 years.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Study shows tropical cyclone intensity shifting poleward

Excerpt:

The latitude at which tropical cyclones reach their greatest intensity is gradually shifting from the tropics toward the poles at rates of about 33 to 39 miles per decade, according to a study published today (May 14, 2014) in the journal Nature.

Of course, the actual study is behind the $32 paywall at Nature. I would like to know exactly what the criteria were for including tropical cyclones in the study and of what intensity. There's no doubt in my mind that better satellite and surveillance has brought about an increase in the number of cyclones in the mid North Atlantic. Classification of these storms is also problematic, and I think we've all seen instances of a "storm" that got classified that 10 years ago would have spun out its lonely existence in the mid-Atlantic and never have gotten classified. The summary gives very little information except for the conclusions of the researcher. It would be nice to see the study without forking over such a ridiculous amount of many. From the data graphs, it's hard to see a poleward trend in the North Atlantic. The North Pacific seems to be the only place I see a poleward trend.

Cleveland area under fire again. Wow.
Thought this was interesting. A lot of it new to me. Good read. Even I understood it. :)

Climate Modulation of North Atlantic Hurricane Tracks




Climate Modulation of North Atlantic Hurricane Tracks

The variability of North Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane tracks, and its relationship to climate vari-
ability, is explored. Tracks from the North Atlantic hurricane database for the period 1950–2007 are objec-
tively separated into four groups using a cluster technique that has been previously applied to tropical cy-
clones in other ocean basins. The four clusters form zonal and meridional separations of the tracks. The
meridional separation largely captures the separation between tropical and more baroclinic systems, while the
zonal separation segregates Gulf of Mexico and Cape Verde storms. General climatologies of the seasonality,
intensity, landfall probability, and historical destructiveness of each cluster are documented, and relationships
between cluster membership and climate variability across a broad spectrum of time scales are identified.
Composites, with respect to cluster membership, of sea surface temperature and other environmental fields
show that regional and remote modes of climate variability modulate the cluster members in substantially
differing ways and further demonstrate that factors such as El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Atlantic
meridional mode (AMM), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) have
varying intrabasin influences on North Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes. Relationships with African
easterly waves are also considered. The AMM and ENSO are found to most strongly modulate the deep
tropical systems, while the MJO most strongly modulates Gulf of Mexico storms and the NAO most strongly
modulates storms that form to the north and west of their Cape Verde counterparts and closer to the NAO
centers of action.
Different clusters also contribute differently to the observed trends in North Atlantic storm frequency and
may be related to intrabasin differences in sea surface temperature trends. Frequency trends are dominated
by the deep tropical systems, which account for most of the major hurricanes and overall power dissipation.
Contrarily, there are no discernable trends in the frequency of Gulf of Mexico storms, which account for the
majority of landfalling storms. When the proportion that each cluster contributes to overall frequency is
considered, there are clear shifts between the deep tropical systems and the more baroclinic systems. A shift
toward proportionally more deep tropical systems began in the early to mid-1980s more than 10 years before
the 1995 North Atlantic hurricane season, which is generally used to mark the beginning of the present period
of heightened activity.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Well, in another article on this:

The amount of poleward migration varies by region. The greatest migration is found in the northern and southern Pacific and South Indian Oceans, but there is no evidence that the peak intensity of Atlantic hurricanes has migrated poleward in the past 30 years.

We crossposted but the graphs certainly support your conclusion. I'm starting to get a bit exasperated by headlines that seem to bear little relevance to the actual study, the robin on the front cover of Nature being a prime example.
Quoting 563. nrtiwlnvragn:
Study shows tropical cyclone intensity shifting poleward

Excerpt:

The latitude at which tropical cyclones reach their greatest intensity is gradually shifting from the tropics toward the poles at rates of about 33 to 39 miles per decade, according to a study published today (May 14, 2014) in the journal Nature.


Dr. Gray thinks this is temporary if at all true. I think Irene and Sandy had a major influence on this for the northern hemisphere.

Link
576. Agres
A very good video of a "slow motion collapse" is at minute 64 of J. Balog's Chasing ice. well worth finding and watching. Floating ice always does what it wants. It is just that sometimes ice does it so fast that we do not usually see it. And for some, seeing is believing, and what they do not see, they do not model.

Glaciers go into decline because their environment is too warm. If it is warm enough to melt the old glacier, a new glacier does not form to replace the old one, then rain and melt water run into the sea, and yes, the sea level rises.

In 2010 and again in 2013, it rained on the snow fields that feed the great glaciers that source the great Asian rivers. One of the weather models says they might get rain again next week. It is only 2014, and a few good monsoons that bring rain rather than snow to the high snow fields of the Himalaya/Hindu Kush/Tibet would wreck havoc on those great glaciers. With the loss of Arctic sea ice, I expect atmospheric circulation to change enough that rain in the high Himalaya will be much more common. We know that even higher glaciers on Mt. Everest are changing very rapidly. The problem with the AR4 statement on glaciers sourcing Asian rivers was one of documentation, not content.
Drought among the worst in Texas in past 500 years

SAN ANTONIO — Will record-breaking droughts become the “new normal” for South Texas?

That question was posed by the state Climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon at a meeting of the Edwards Aquifer Authority board Tuesday.

The current drought, which started four years ago, is among the five worst in the past 500 years, he said. If it continues to be as dry as it is has been, the drought could be the third worst.


Link
Hmmmm...

WPC Tropical Discussion sees two tropical waves in the Atlantic:

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 28W AND SOUTH OF 24N IS TO REACH FRENCH GUIANA
LATER IN THE CYCLE...WHERE IT IS TO FAVOR SCATTERED CONVECTION AND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 49W AND SOUTH OF 13N SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE
GUIANAS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE IS TO GENERALLY FAVOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH
WITH ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. THIS IS TO
GRADUALLY SPREAD WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN SURINAME TO GUYANA/RORAIMA
IN BRASIL.
Quoting 546. StormWx:
FYI, bubba lol. The lows in CFL late next week in the 60s. Nice and comfy.



For one that only goes thru Tuesday next week and 2 all models show mid 90's late next week in Orlando with even some upper 90's. Good luck with your forecast map that only goes thru Tuesday.

Again Thanks!

http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/USFL0003
I wonder if people feel stupid for mocking a post only to get showed up. I know I would.

Also this heat according tthe GFS will be across the whole SE US with temps around 90 even in NC starting on Wednesday. So yes the SE US has a heat wave coming later next week.
Quoting 580. Grothar:


Been a monsoon today on the northside of Orlando Gro. Models are showing 4" to 6" of rain across western FL later this evening thru the overnight hours.
Quoting 567. Xyrus2000:



Actually it is explained. Sulfur dioxide. From the period of 1940 to 1970 there was a MASSIVE increase in the amount of anthropogenic sulfur emissions across the world. Sulfur dioxide produces sulfuric acid based aerosols in our atmosphere which block incoming IR radiation. The world peaked in sulfur emissions in 1970. Since then, many countries have enacted clean air regulations which have done a good job of reducing sulfur emissions.

Cleaner air and less acid rain are good things, but the reduced SO2 is allowing the once hidden warming to show up. As SO2 emissions are reduced even further the warming effect from our addition GHG input will become even more pronounced.


That's the leading hypothesis. The strong surge in warming since the late 70s coincides with the introduction of clean air laws in North America and Europe, primarily to counteract acid rain, which was mostly a result of SO2 from coal burning power stations and NO2 from vehicle exhausts.

Power stations were required to introduce SO2 scrubbing technology, and vehicles were fitted with catalytic converters. This solved the problem of acid rain. It also allowed more sunlight to reach the ground, presumably reversing the cooling trend.

However, it's not clear how much SO2 and increased particulates contribute to cooling, and many developing countries, particularly China, are currently emulating the bad practices of the west pre 1980, with no sign of a cooling in eastern Asia.
Once again, Birmingham can't keep a weather radio on the air right when you need it. This my local transmitter, and it has now been off the air since yesterday. I guess whoever it is that's their technician has never learned how to work on a phone line with thunderstorms in the area, something the real phone company does all the time.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
212 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014

...TEXASVILLE NOAA WEATHER RADIO REMAINS OFF THE AIR...

TEXASVILLE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER...BROADCASTING ON A
FREQUENCY OF 162.475 MHZ...REMAINS OFF THE AIR DUE TO PHONE LINE
ISSUES.

WE ARE WORKING WITH TECHNICIANS TO GET IT BACK UP AND RUNNING AS
SOON AS POSSIBLE. BUT DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA...THE PHONE
LINES MAY NOT BE REPAIRED UNTIL SOMETIME ON THURSDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME...PLEASE TUNE TO LOCAL MEDIA AND COMMERCIAL RADIO FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION. BACKUP NOAA WEATHER RADIO
TRANSMITTERS ARE:

AUBURN...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.525 MHZ...
COLUMBUS...GA...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.400 MHZ...AND
DOZIER...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.500 MHZ.
I forgot to post this yesterday, so enjoy this little piece of humor via NWS Juneau Alaska:

10% tornado prob added in the latest convective outlook.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Been a monsoon today on the northside of Orlando Gro. Models are showing 4" to 6" of rain across western FL later this evening thru the overnight hours.


Monsoon? Rain totals are not impressive. What models are these? Reality says no. Sorry bubba! I bet its tough to get showed up.



One measily shower west of Orlando. Big whoop lol.

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Well, in another article on this:

The amount of poleward migration varies by region. The greatest migration is found in the northern and southern Pacific and South Indian Oceans, but there is no evidence that the peak intensity of Atlantic hurricanes has migrated poleward in the past 30 years.


Hm, then we'll have to check back in another 30 years or so to see if that's changed.
Thunderstorms with gusts to 43 mph st Pete whitted airport
Quoting 455. barbamz:



Poor Krauts we are, lol. Nevertheless Goethe was one of us :-)

------------------

BTW here is some help if you want to take part in a German weatherblog, lol.



And Wagner
I always get a kick out of someone that says "sorry this hurricane season is not going to be active, you'll have to wait until 2015 for a busy season" and "heatwave 10 days from now watch out" like they have some sort of crystal ball. Then disappears when they are wrong to avoid eating all the crow thats being dished. :o)

Average to below average for the SE up to Saturday May 24th.


Quoting StPetersburgFL:
Thunderstorms with gusts to 43 mph st Pete whitted airport


Looks like a goood shower rolling through. Its moving north so hopefully sunny skies for you soon.

Quoting 591. StPetersburgFL:
Thunderstorms with gusts to 43 mph st Pete whitted airport


Models are showing thunderstorms increasing in coverage across the Tampa Bay area and lasting pretty much all night. The local HRRR model is showing over 4" of rain across Tampa tonight.
Finally its pouring rain by me..first rain all day..with some pretty strong wind gusts with it and thunder etc...was really dry here so this rain is a good thing...supposed to go on and off thru the night into tomorrow....then friday it cools off for a day..
Whoo this is fun! And I see some pink showing up. Thunder is really loud and the winds have picked up> I put a plastic cup outside and it's already half way full. :D

Quoting 546. StormWx:

FYI, bubba lol. The lows in CFL late next week in the 60s. Nice and comfy.




According to Intellicast, highs for Orlando next Wed is 89, Thurs 91, and Fri 94. Pretty normal temps. I'm suppose to get 4-6" of rain tonight. Let's see what the rain bucket says in the morning.
Quoting 582. StormTrackerScott:



Been a monsoon today on the northside of Orlando Gro. Models are showing 4" to 6" of rain across western FL later this evening thru the overnight hours.
Quoting 595. StormTrackerScott:



Models are showing thunderstorms increasing in coverage across the Tampa Bay area and lasting pretty much all night. The local HRRR model is showing over 4" of rain across Tampa tonight.
Quoting 595. StormTrackerScott:



Models are showing thunderstorms increasing in coverage across the Tampa Bay area and lasting pretty much all night. The local HRRR model is showing over 4" of rain across Tampa tonight.


Hot and sunny today. I don't remember a May this hot except for 2001. This has been brutal.
Quoting luvtogolf:


According to Intellicast, highs for Orlando next Wed is 89, Thurs 91, and Fri 94. Pretty normal temps. I'm suppose to get 4-6" of rain tonight. Let's see what the rain bucket says in the morning.


Yep pretty normal. Im not sayin' it wont get to 94, im just saying its not getting to 100. Thats what I call trying to hype temperatures, lol :o) We shall see.
Update the cup is full and spilling over. Nice afternoon t'storm to cool off the place. Probably easily up over an inch now.
Hey Scott...



Hammertime
Tornado Warning in Ohio
There's a really intense, little cell in Adams County, OH. It's likely producing large hail and potentially a tornado.
Whats with the super duper small Tornado warning in Alabama??
Quoting 581. StormTrackerScott:

I wonder if people feel stupid for mocking a post only to get showed up. I know I would.

Also this heat according tthe GFS will be across the whole SE US with temps around 90 even in NC starting on Wednesday. So yes the SE US has a heat wave coming later next week.


Scott, I see the warm up you're referring to for the SE. But I don't see the heat indices you indicated earlier. But then again, the forecast doesn't go past 7 days. Forecasted Heat Index Day 3 (Sat) and 7 (Wed):


Quoting 600. Grothar:



Hot and sunny today. I don't remember a May this hot except for 2001. This has been brutal.
It's not that hot. Try 100 degrees with 100% humidity and 80 degree dew point.
Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 1:15 PM PDT on May 14, 2014
Clear
91.8 °F
Clear
Humidity: 6%
Dew Point: 16 °F

Wind: 9.0 mph from the East
Wind Gust: 31.0 mph
Pressure: 29.99 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 88 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 12 out of 16
Pollen: 6.10 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 1070 ft

91.6F here, 96F at the Airport(KRAL(12:53))
Quoting 586. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I forgot to post this yesterday, so enjoy this little piece of humor via NWS Juneau Alaska:




I'll never look at a NWS posting the same way anymore.
Quoting 606. JrWeathermanFL:

Whats with the super duper small Tornado warning in Alabama??


It does look like a rather small area:

Quoting 600. Grothar:



Hot and sunny today. I don't remember a May this hot except for 2001. This has been brutal.
yes im with you on that GRO..heat and humidity combine to make it a really Hot day for florida in mid may..guess its the tropical nature of this wave passing thru florida
Quoting 609. PedleyCA:

Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 1:15 PM PDT on May 14, 2014
Clear
91.8 °F
Clear
Humidity: 6%
Dew Point: 16 °F

Wind: 9.0 mph from the East
Wind Gust: 31.0 mph
Pressure: 29.99 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 88 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 12 out of 16
Pollen: 6.10 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 1070 ft

91.6F here, 96F at the Airport(KRAL(12:53))
Since when did California become a desert?
Tornado Warning

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
TORNADO WARNING
ALC027-142100-
/O.NEW.KBMX.TO.W.0037.140514T2025Z-140514T2100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
325 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL CLAY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT

* AT 322 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM
WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ASHLAND...AND MOVING NORTH AT 25
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SPRINGHILL AND GUNTHERTOWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR
THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.

&&

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...
CALL 1-800-856-0758 OR TWEET YOUR REPORT USING HASHTAG ALWX

LAT...LON 3321 8592 3321 8597 3329 8599 3338 8598
3338 8594 3340 8594 3340 8590
TIME...MOT...LOC 2025Z 178DEG 20KT 3323 8594

$$

61
Quoting 600. Grothar:


Hot and sunny today. I don't remember a May this hot except for 2001. This has been brutal.


Too bad we can't get a piece of one of the Western Antartica glaciers to float to Florida. It's going to be a hot summer.
Quite the hail core on the cell near Waverly, OH. Although it is tornado warned, the main threat here appears to be the baseball sized hail the NWS outlines in the alert.
Tornado warning extended in Ohio, into Pike CO.

Quoting 616. rmbjoe1954:



Too bad we can't get a piece of one of the Western Antartica glaciers to float to Florida. It's going to be a hot summer.
One day that will probably happen, then you'll know things just got real.
Quoting 613. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Since when did California become a desert?


Santa Ana wind Event, Hottest day is tomorrow.

Quoting 619. GTstormChaserCaleb:
One day that will probably happen, then you'll know things just got real.


If I am still around in Florida I hope to be in my dinghy when that occurs.
Quoting 620. PedleyCA:



Santa Ana wind Event, Hottest day is tomorrow.


I'll take those night time lows. Can't sleep when it's muggy, usually have to end up cranking up the a/c. Prefer to open up the windows to get some fresh air into the house.
Quoting LAbonbon:


It does look like a rather small area:


Just Birmingham having a little fun. It was cancelled 12 minutes after it was issued.
Quoting 616. rmbjoe1954:



Too bad we can't get a piece of one of the Western Antartica glaciers to float to Florida. It's going to be a hot summer.


Last year our pool was so hot, I actually called the ice company and they delivered 4 large cubes. Our pool looked like a martini. (For real)
Better start rainin if we're going to get "4-6 inches".

California is having a bad time with fires from what I've seen on the news, but this is an awesome image regardless...

Quoting 623. sar2401:


Just Birmingham having a little fun. It was cancelled 12 minutes after it was issued.

There was a brief touchdown. CC values got down below 75%, confirming airborne debris, likely in the form of broken off tree limbs or damaged roofing from homes/barns/outbuildings.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
403 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL HENRY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT

* AT 402 PM CDT...A DEVELOPING TORNADO HAS BEEN DETECTED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEAR EDWIN...OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ABBEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
LAWRENCEVILLE...SCREAMER AND SCOTTSBORO CROSSROADS



fire near Pendleton getting worse, it seems
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
408 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL BARBOUR COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 406 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM
WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH OF RICHARDS CROSSROADS...OR 7 MILES NORTH
OF ABBEVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RICHARDS CROSSROADS AND BAKER HILL.

Birmingham's havin some fun with these little storms..
Quoting 609. PedleyCA:

Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 1:15 PM PDT on May 14, 2014
Clear
91.8 °F
Clear
Humidity: 6%
Dew Point: 16 °F

Wind: 9.0 mph from the East
Wind Gust: 31.0 mph
Pressure: 29.99 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 88 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 12 out of 16
Pollen: 6.10 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 1070 ft

91.6F here, 96F at the Airport(KRAL(12:53))


How do you get such nice summaries of weather out your way - does PWS refer to a Private Weather Station?

Oxnard is 100.1 last I checked. It cooled off nicely last night, but this is crazy hot for us.
Sar, aren't these awfully close to you?

This is from 578 Agres:-

"In 2010 and again in 2013, it rained on the snow fields that feed the great glaciers that source the great Asian rivers. One of the weather models says they might get rain again next week. It is only 2014, and a few good monsoons that bring rain rather than snow to the high snow fields of the Himalaya/Hindu Kush/Tibet would wreck havoc on those great glaciers."

As we all know if you put ice in the sink and run the cold water tap onto it, the ice disappears very quickly.
Probably the worst thing in the world for ice is rain falling onto it, a lot worse than sunshine or warm winds.
The eventual doom of a lot of glaciers will be rainfall!
S/SW Ohio:


I'm sure someone has already posted this, but it's one of the top stories on AOL. I'm really not sure how to take the article.

Study: Tropical cyclones migrating out of tropics

WASHINGTON (AP) - Tropical cyclones worldwide are moving out of the tropics and more toward the poles and generally larger populations, likely because of global warming, a surprising new study finds. Atlantic hurricanes, however, don't follow this trend.

While other studies have looked at the strength and frequency of the storms, which are called hurricanes in North America, this is the first study that looks at where they are geographically when they peak. It found in the last 30 years, tropical cyclones, regardless of their size, are peaking 33 miles farther north each decade in the Northern Hemisphere and 38 miles farther south each decade in the Southern Hemisphere.

That means about 100 miles toward the more populous mid-latitudes since 1982, the starting date for the study released Wednesday by the journal Nature.

"The storms en masse are migrating out of the tropics," said study lead author James Kossin of the National Climatic Data Center and the University of Wisconsin. Kossin used historical tracks of storms in the Western Pacific, Eastern Pacific, North Indian Ocean, South Indian Ocean, South Pacific and the Atlantic.

That means more people at risk, especially in the Northern Hemisphere, because "you're going to hit more population areas," said Yale University historian and cartographer Bill Rankin, who wasn't part of the study.

The trend, however, is not statistically significant in the Atlantic basin, where storms threaten the U.S. East Coast. In the Atlantic region, the study has seen a northward drift of storms of only 4 miles a decade, which just could be random.

Kossin said the Atlantic region is different because of changes in pollution over the United States and other factors.

Kossin and colleagues say the changes start with man-made global warming, which alters air circulation from the tropics to just farther north and south. In the tropics, those changes increase upper atmosphere wind shifts called shear that weaken cyclone development. At higher latitudes the changes decrease the storm-decapitating shear, making those areas more favorable for storm intensification.

"The tropics are becoming less hospitable" for these storms, Kossin said. "The higher latitudes are becoming less hostile."

Past storm studies have been criticized because data doesn't go back many years. But Kossin, his colleagues and outside scientists say by looking at where geographically storms hit their peak this study avoids problems with haphazard measurements and thus can make a stronger connection to climate change.

"This is an important, very well researched paper that uncovers something that was unknown previously," said hurricane researcher Chris Landsea, science officer at the National Hurricane Center. Florida International University hurricane professor Hugh Willoughby called this the strongest tropical cyclone and global warming link yet.

http://www.aol.com/article/2014/05/14/study-tropi cal-cyclones-migrating-out-of-tropics/20885844/?ic id=maing-grid7%7Cresponsive%7Cdl23%7Csec1_lnk2%26p Lid%3D476433
Curious don't have my computer is the any circulation to the blob in the central gulf west of Tampa, looks to be on the visible. I know the shear probably to high but maybe some bad weather heading for central Fl.


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
434 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN CHRISTIAN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 430 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR HOPKINSVILLE...AND MOVING NORTH AT 50 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
CROFTON AROUND 440 PM CDT.
Not good news Link

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
552 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014

OHC023-057-097-142215-
/O.CON.KILN.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-140514T2215Z/
CLARK OH-GREENE OH-MADISON OH-
552 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN MADISON...EASTERN GREENE AND SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTIES...

AT 551 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG
ROTATION LOCATED NEAR CEDARVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. A
TORNADO IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CEDARVILLE AND SOUTH CHARLESTON.

IN ADDITION...BELL CENTER...GLADSTONE...SELMA AND SOUTH SOLON ARE
NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM.


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
552 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
PICKAWAY COUNTY IN CENTRAL OHIO...
NORTHERN ROSS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OHIO...

* UNTIL 615 PM EDT.

* AT 551 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A TORNADO LOCATED NEAR FRANKFORT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CIRCLEVILLE...

IN ADDITION...CLARKSBURG...ANDERSONVILLE...STATE ROUTE 207 AT US
ROUTE 22...WILLIAMSPORT...PICKAWAY COUNTY AIRPORT...STATE ROUTE 138
AT US ROUTE 22...FOX AND AW MARION STATE PARK ARE NEAR THE PATH OF
THIS DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORM.
I went to work this morning and just getting off and came back to a message saying I got a ban for less than an hour..even my own kids don't tattletale as much as one does on this blog..LOL..

I told my husband about my love struck infatuation I have supposedly on this blog and he went and bought me roses and asked me not to leave him for someone on the internet 30 years my senior..I told him he had absolutely no worries..


Gotta love the high country of Colorado! What it lacks in latitude it makes up for in altitude!
There's a damaging tornado on the ground a little ways east of Dayton, Ohio, with debris confirmed by radar.
Tornado on the ground in Greene County, OH doing damage. Debris ball just northeast of Cedarville.
Quoting 643. ncstorm:

I went to work this morning and just getting off and came back to a message saying I got a ban for less than an hour..even my own kids don't tattletale as much as one does on this blog..LOL..

I told my husband about my love struck infatuation I have supposedly on this blog and he went and bought me roses and asked me not to leave him for someone on the internet 30 years my senior..I told him he had absolutely no worries..
I'm sorry about your ban, I don't know why people are behaving like this, hiding behind a computer and tattletaling is quite petty. By the way congrats on your 30 years of being together with your husband.
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
603 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014

OHC023-057-142215-
/O.CON.KILN.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-140514T2215Z/
CLARK OH-GREENE OH-
603 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM EDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN GREENE AND SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTIES...

AT 602 PM EDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO WITH THIS STORM SOUTH
OF CEDARVILLE. RADAR INDICATED THAT THE TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR SELMA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.


LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOUTH CHARLESTON.

IN ADDITION...SELMA IS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
Quoting 644. PensacolaDoug:



Gotta love the high country of Colorado! What it lacks in latitude it makes up for in altitude!
How is it going Doug, long time no see?
another possible 5-8 inches of rain...stay safe folks.........................Flash Flood Watch

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
225 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA FOR HEAVY RAIN ...

.A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SLOWLY FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY
AS THIS FRONT INTERACTS WITH UNUSUALLY MOIST PLUMES OF MOISTURE
COMING FROM BOTH THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. THE HEAVIEST RAIN
IS LIKELY TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY... AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA. RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 3
INCHES...BUT ISOLATED AMOUNTS MAY BE IN THE 5 TO 8 INCH RANGE.
GIVEN THE HIGH WATER TABLES AND FULL DRAINAGES...ESPECIALLY IN THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THERE IS A THREAT OF RAPIDLY RISING WATERS.

Isaac Asimov We're talking about something
That affects the entire Earth
Problems that transcend nations




Quoting 639. gordydunnot:

Curious don't have my computer is the any circulation to the blob in the central gulf west of Tampa, looks to be on the visible. I know the shear probably to high but maybe some bad weather heading for central Fl.
local met said there might be a warning coming out for that storm around sarasota headed northward......................................... . .................................................. ...........

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
609 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN CLARK COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO...

* UNTIL 645 PM EDT.

* AT 606 PM EDT...RADAR WAS TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH
STRONG ROTATION LOCATED NEAR SOUTH CHARLESTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
30 MPH. THIS STORM PREVIOUSLY PRODUCED A TORNADO AND A
TORNADO IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT.


* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOUTH CHARLESTON...

A TORNADO WAS RECENTLY REPORTED ON THE GROUND NEAR CEDARVILLE.

IN ADDITION...LISBON...PLATTSBURG...SOUTH VIENNA AND BRIGHTON ARE
NEAR THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORM.
Friday might be a bit stormy east coast............................................. ...........................

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
615 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN FAIRFIELD COUNTY IN CENTRAL OHIO...
SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OHIO...
CENTRAL PICKAWAY COUNTY IN CENTRAL OHIO...

* UNTIL 645 PM EDT.

* AT 610 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A TORNADO LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF
CIRCLEVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ASHVILLE...

IN ADDITION...FOX...STOUTSVILLE...AW MARION STATE PARK...
DARBYVILLE...EAST RINGGOLD...SOUTH BLOOMFIELD...STATE ROUTE 674 AT
STATE ROUTE 188 AND COMMERCIAL POINT ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS
DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORM.

@WxNick: #Tornado on Wilmington Road just south of Cedarville, Ohio around 6pm.
@USTornadoes
Looks like another round is getting ready to affect us, Largo.

According to Channel 2 in Dayton, gate-to-gate on the Cedarville tornado-producing storm is 66 mph at this moment. The couplet is located right over South Vienna at this time.
Quoting 571. sar2401:


Of course, the actual study is behind the $32 paywall at Nature. I would like to know exactly what the criteria were for including tropical cyclones in the study and of what intensity. There's no doubt in my mind that better satellite and surveillance has brought about an increase in the number of cyclones in the mid North Atlantic. Classification of these storms is also problematic, and I think we've all seen instances of a "storm" that got classified that 10 years ago would have spun out its lonely existence in the mid-Atlantic and never have gotten classified. The summary gives very little information except for the conclusions of the researcher. It would be nice to see the study without forking over such a ridiculous amount of many. From the data graphs, it's hard to see a poleward trend in the North Atlantic. The North Pacific seems to be the only place I see a poleward trend.




Look again at the southern basins. That makes for only 3 of the 6 basins, but I suspect the disparity will be larger if TC numbers are accounted for.

Re the N. Atlantic, I suspect the combination of SAL and blocking land masses make northward movement difficult.

KE will post a public copy on his pubs page soon.
Channel 2 now has damage pictures from Cedarville on their stream. Looks indicative of an EF2 in my opinion. Storm is just now crossing I-70 and Hwy 40. Link to the stream below.

Link

Large #tornado near Cedarville, OH around 6 pm EDT! @foxmariamolina Photo taken by Sue Stormont @whio
@reedtimmerTVN
Quoting 658. Doppler22:


@WxNick: #Tornado on Wilmington Road just south of Cedarville, Ohio around 6pm.
@USTornadoes


Been watching reports live online on WHIO

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
626 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
HOCKING COUNTY IN CENTRAL OHIO...

* UNTIL 700 PM EDT.

* AT 623 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A TORNADO LOCATED NEAR SOUTH BLOOMINGVILLE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HOCKING HILLS STATE PARK...
LOGAN...

IN ADDITION...SOUTH BLOOMINGVILLE...ILESBORO...GIBISONVILLE...UNION
FURNACE...LAKE LOGAN STATE PARK...ROCKBRIDGE AND ENTERPRISE ARE NEAR
THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORM.


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
629 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN MADISON COUNTY IN CENTRAL OHIO...
SOUTHEASTERN CHAMPAIGN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO...
NORTHEASTERN CLARK COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO...

* UNTIL 700 PM EDT.

* AT 627 PM EDT...RADAR WAS TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH
STRONG ROTATION LOCATED NEAR SOUTH VIENNA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH. THIS STORM PREVIOUSLY PRODUCED A TORNADO AND ANOTHER TORNADO
IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN
CLARK...NORTHERN MADISON AND SOUTHEASTERN CHAMPAIGN COUNTIES...
INCLUDING BRIGHTON.

MOST RECENT REPORTS SUGGEST A WALL CLOUD IS PRESENT IN EASTERN CLARK
COUNTY...AND THIS STORM MAY BE PRODUCING OR ABOUT TO PRODUCE ANOTHER
TORNADO.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE...
I-70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 65 AND 71...
Partly cloudy turned mostly cloudy and sticky. Thick fog this morning. No rain yet. 64/82 Dewpoint surged this morning and has been as high as 75 this afternoon. The humidity has not fallen below 70% all day. Currently 79%.

BREAKING PHOTO: Fire tornado seen during brush fire in Fallbrook, California. Via @MarcusSmithKTLA
Quoting LAbonbon:
Sar, aren't these awfully close to you?


Yes indeed. It appears we had a tornado touchdown in Bakerhill, about 8 miles west of me. I was at Walmart and could see the rotating wall cloud and hail shaft, and I think the tornado was in the RRQ but it was too far away for me to really positively ID it as a tornado. There are reports of damage on the public safety channels. The thunderstorm itself is still going on, with tremendous lightning and torrential rain. I'm up to .75" in the last 35 minutes. The worst part here is that the tornado sirens are tied into the NWS radio, which isn't working and off-line. The sirens didn't go off when I got the warning. I was able to get through to the county EMA on ham radio and got them to set off the warning manually. They had no idea there was a tornado warning. ;-(
Injuries being reported in Cedarville, OH
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
I disagree most early storms affect the Eastern Gulf, cold fronts push em that way.

Hurricane Alma



Formed June 4, 1966
Dissipated June 13, 1966
Highest winds 1-minute sustained:
125 mph (205 km/h)
Lowest pressure 970 mbar (hPa); 28.64 inHg
Fatalities 91 total
Damage $210.1 million (1966 USD)
Areas affected Nicaragua, Honduras, Cuba, Florida, Georgia, The Carolinas, East Coast of the United States

Link

4 years later Alma hit FL. again.



Formed May 17, 1970
Dissipated May 26, 1970
Highest winds 1-minute sustained:
80 mph (130 km/h)
Lowest pressure 993 mbar (hPa); 29.32 inHg
Fatalities 8 total
Areas affected Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Cuba, Southeast United States



Allison in 1995, Alberto in 1994 & 2006, Barry in 2007, Andrea last year, among others.
Another picture of the Cedarville tornado. There's also reports of a house destroyed and a truck thrown over 400ft by the tornado.
What happened to the guy in Nederland CO? He's almost 3,000 feet higher than Denver. Want to know how much snow he got earlier this week. The reports I saw near Nederland were 15"-18".
......................................
6:42pm ET: 2 injured, severe damage to residential building at Barber and Weimer roads in Cedarville, #Ohio.
@TWCBreaking

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0602
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0450 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY / WRN PA / WV

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 155...

VALID 142150Z - 142315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 155 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF WRN
NY...WRN PA AND WV. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY
EVENING.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1010 MB LOW OVER WRN KY
WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS ERN OH INTO NW PA. SFC
DEWPOINTS ALONG THIS TROUGH ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F AND MLCAPE
IS ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ONGOING ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST
INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD NNEWD ACROSS
THE ERN PART OF WW 155. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY MOVE OUT OF THE NERN
PART OF THE WATCH WITH OTHER NEW CELLS INITIATING ALONG THE
INSTABILITY AXIS AND MOVING NNEWD. DUE TO THE INSTABILITY AND
MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR EVIDENT ON THE PITTSBURG PA WSR-88D
VWP...THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT.
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO WRN PA AND WRN NY DUE TO A DAMMING COLD
FRONTAL AIRMASS SITUATED TO THE EAST OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN CREST
.

..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 05/14/2014
Quoting 659. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Looks like another round is getting ready to affect us, Largo.


yes ..in the last one lightning killed a construction worker down in seminole............local met said this one coming might get a warning...........
Quoting 674. Doppler22:

6:42pm ET: 2 injured, severe damage to residential building at Barber and Weimer roads in Cedarville, #Ohio.
@TWCBreaking


WHIO had live video of the damage there, as well as a call-in from a resident giving a very detailed report of the damage. Poor guy was pretty shook up.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
649 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTY IN CENTRAL OHIO...
SOUTHERN UNION COUNTY IN CENTRAL OHIO...

* UNTIL 715 PM EDT.

* AT 646 PM EDT...SPOTTERS CONTINUED TO INDICATE OCCASIONAL FUNNEL
CLOUDS AND A ROTATING WALL CLOUD WITH A STORM THAT HAS PREVIOUSLY
PRODUCED A DAMAGING TORNADO. THE STRONGEST ROTATION WITH THIS STORM
IS CURRENTLY WEST OF PLUMWOOD IN NORTHWEST MADISON COUNTY. ROTATION
HAS BEEN WEAKENING RECENTLY BUT THIS STORM COULD STILL PRODUCE A
TORNADO AT ANY MOMENT.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PLAIN CITY...

IN ADDITION...PLUMWOOD...ROSEDALE...RESACA...CHUCKERY ...AMITY AND
UNIONVILLE CENTER ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORM.
Quoting 676. LargoFl:

yes ..in the last one lightning killed a construction worker down in seminole............local met said this one coming might get a warning...........
I was just about to post that
Looks like lightning has claimed another life.

Man found dead at construction site possibly struck by lightning
Quoting 675. LAbonbon:


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0602
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0450 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY / WRN PA / WV

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 155...

VALID 142150Z - 142315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 155 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF WRN
NY...WRN PA AND WV. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY
EVENING.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1010 MB LOW OVER WRN KY
WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS ERN OH INTO NW PA. SFC
DEWPOINTS ALONG THIS TROUGH ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F AND MLCAPE
IS ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ONGOING ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST
INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD NNEWD ACROSS
THE ERN PART OF WW 155. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY MOVE OUT OF THE NERN
PART OF THE WATCH WITH OTHER NEW CELLS INITIATING ALONG THE
INSTABILITY AXIS AND MOVING NNEWD. DUE TO THE INSTABILITY AND
MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR EVIDENT ON THE PITTSBURG PA WSR-88D
VWP...THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT.
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO WRN PA AND WRN NY DUE TO A DAMMING COLD
FRONTAL AIRMASS SITUATED TO THE EAST OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN CREST
.

..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 05/14/2014


Now if only that cold frontal airmass would move away so I can see some thunderstorms -_-
Quoting 634. oxnardprof:



How do you get such nice summaries of weather out your way - does PWS refer to a Private Weather Station?

Oxnard is 100.1 last I checked. It cooled off nicely last night, but this is crazy hot for us.


PWS is the WU weather network, think it stands for personal weather station. The summaries are taken off the classic WU then posted on the NuWU. I use the old site as the results are easier to copy and paste here.
Destroyed structure near Cedarville.
Quoting 680. Doppler22:


Now if only that cold frontal airmass would move away so I can see some thunderstorms -_-
Isn't that CAPE kind of low to produce tornadoes, shouldn't it be around 3000-4000?
That was more gusty winds than I've seen in some severe t'storm warned storms. Very glad for the rain though.
Quoting 672. DonnieBwkGA:

What happened to the guy in Nederland CO? He's almost 3,000 feet higher than Denver. Want to know how much snow he got earlier this week. The reports I saw near Nederland were 15"-18".


Can't remember his name, unfortunately. But there is this Nederland webcam that has a 24-hour time lapse.
686. etxwx
Evening reading and the best story of the day here:

No Joke: Most Drinking Supplies Flush With "Potty Water"
by Neena Satija Texas Tribune May 14, 2014

Excerpts: Let’s start with Houston, which, as Texas State University professor Andy Sansom says, “has been drinking Dallas’ crap for decades.” Wastewater from Dallas and Fort Worth is deposited into the Trinity River, where it flows down into the lakes that supply Houston residents. The wastewater is so clean that it’s credited with helping the Trinity River stay strong during recent years of severe drought.
and
"Bloomberg News noted that many people are concerned about water contamination, comparing the Wichita Falls project to the example of Oregon water officials flushing 38 million gallons from a reservoir after a teenager urinated into it. "We're not drought-stricken Texas," an official there noted.

On that note, remember all the people guzzling beer and floating in the water out on Lakes Travis and Buchanan, which supply Austin's drinking water. No one is suggesting flushing those bodies of water or implying that residents of the capital city are brushing their teeth with sewer water."


----------------------------------------------
Plus energy news from Fuelfix.com:

Activist investors push objectives at ConocoPhillips meeting

Texas launches $2,500 incentive for CNG, electric vehicles

Senate debates wind tax credit

Ohio House plans vote on tax hike for oil drillers

Quoting 668. sar2401:


Yes indeed. It appears we had a tornado touchdown in Bakerhill, about 8 miles west of me. I was at Walmart and could see the rotating wall cloud and hail shaft, and I think the tornado was in the RRQ but it was too far away for me to really positively ID it as a tornado. There are reports of damage on the public safety channels. The thunderstorm itself is still going on, with tremendous lightning and torrential rain. I'm up to .75" in the last 35 minutes. The worst part here is that the tornado sirens are tied into the NWS radio, which isn't working and off-line. The sirens didn't go off when I got the warning. I was able to get through to the county EMA on ham radio and got them to set off the warning manually. They had no idea there was a tornado warning. ;-(


Hmmm, the officials in your area are giving off a vibe like the sheriffs in Dukes of Hazzard...
Moderately Unstable for CAPE in the range of 1000-2500 J/KG. What's the LI looking like in that area shaded Doppler, LAbonbon?
Beautiful stovepipe tornado near Cedarville, OH an hour ago (not my picture; via Twitter). It completely destroyed a barn, and injuries have been reported. Looks like it may have been about an EF2. Would not be surprised at EF3.



BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
658 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
HOLMES COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OHIO...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...MILLERSBURG...HOLMESVILLE...

* UNTIL 745 PM EDT

* AT 658 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES SOUTH OF
KILLBUCK...OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF MILLERSBURG...MOVING NORTH AT 25
MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
GLENMONT AND NASHVILLE
O Man, Thank you,, a Cold Front with NW winds @ 20mph...May 14th.

I'll take it Bob.

72.2F and falling

Quoting 641. Guysgal:

Not good news Link
The worlds oceans have more power than Co2 at this stage..Wouldnt it be freaky if there was a huge and sudden change with Oceanic Conveyor Belt, altering the worlds weather and climate while the atmosphere continues to warm....Unless, of course , there is a massive eruption or asteroid impact...Then we probably have a bigger problem..:)
Quoting 672. DonnieBwkGA:

What happened to the guy in Nederland CO? He's almost 3,000 feet higher than Denver. Want to know how much snow he got earlier this week. The reports I saw near Nederland were 15"-18".


Finally remembered his name - MrMixon. He last updated his blog in December.
Something is not right here.

Largo, FL
7:23 PM EDT on May 14, 2014 (GMT -0400) Largo FL (KFLLARGO5) Elev 18 ft | 27.89 N, 82.73 W | Change Station
Current weather conditions updated 51 sec ago

Freezing Rain
Freezing Rain
74.9 F
Feels Like 74 F
N2.0
Wind Variable
Gusts 3.0 mph
Sunrise 6:42 am
Sunset 8:12 pm
Moon Full
More Astronomy

Link
Quoting 680. Doppler22:


Now if only that cold frontal airmass would move away so I can see some thunderstorms -_-


Aren't you in PA? If so, would that be directly under that damming airmass? If so, vicarious thrills only for you!
Quoting 688. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Moderately Unstable for CAPE in the range of 1000-2500 J/KG. What's the LI looking like in that area shaded Doppler, LAbonbon?


Honestly don't know where to find it. I will have to defer to someone else :/
Quoting 691. Patrap:

O Man, Thank you,, a Cold Front with NW winds @ 20mph...May 14th.

I'll take it Bob.

72.2F and falling

>


And it's a beautiful 65F here. For the first time in a couple weeks I'm turning the oven on to do some baking :P

You all have a wonderful evening.

I see I missed everything....All light to moderate rain here in N GA. As I expected, no severe weather.
Quoting Guysgal:
Not good news Link

Why is this not good news?

“There’s nothing at the moment that would suggest that something dramatically worrying is going on,” says David Smeed, an oceanographer at the UK National Oceanography Center in Southampton and a lead researcher in the RAPID programme. He suggests that the weakening of the AMOC could be because of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation — a natural cycle of ocean variability in which Atlantic temperatures dip every 60 to 70 years.
Quoting LAbonbon:


And it's a beautiful 65F here. For the first time in a couple weeks I'm turning the oven on to do some baking :P

You all have a wonderful evening.


GN, Bonnie. Send us some cookies. :-0
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
I see I missed everything....All light to moderate rain here in N GA. As I expected, no severe weather.

We had at least 2 relatively weak tornadoes down here and still have some honkin' thunderstorms. I'm up to .92" on the last 75 minutes. Luckily, winds haven't been bad.
702. wxmod
This is a satellite photo today of the whole Washington coast. Frequent fliers are destroying the stratosphere.

703. wxmod
Satellite image today of the stratosphere being destroyed by frequent fliers.

704. wxmod
Why don't you just cash in your frequent flier miles and quit destroying the planet! That's seven hundred miles of coastline shown on this MODIS satellite photo.

Quoting 688. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Moderately Unstable for CAPE in the range of 1000-2500 J/KG. What's the LI looking like in that area shaded Doppler, LAbonbon?

Complete brain fart, so I am not sure. I will know though that I really doubt that there will be many if at all any tornadoes in PA. Thats why the watch issued was a Severe T-Storm Watch not a tornado watch.

Quoting 695. LAbonbon:



Aren't you in PA? If so, would that be directly under that damming airmass? If so, vicarious thrills only for you!

Yes I am near York, PA. Cloudy and boring here. Has been, I would like a nice juicy thunderstorm to come along
706. wxmod
False color satellite of northern California. Snowpack is red.

From Houston-Galveston NWS forecast discussion:

SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND ON INTO THIS EVENING...AND THE WINDS WILL COME DOWN TOO AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR POSSIBLE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS THE AREA (SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR THE RECORDS...SOME OF WHICH DATE BACK TO 1890).
Picture This: U.S. Cities Under 12 feet of Sea Level Rise

Maps are one way to understand what collapse of West Antarctic glaciers could eventually mean. Photos show it another way.

In 2013, Climate Central shared some of its sea level rise mapping data with artist Nickolay Lamm so that he could develop photorealistic images of U.S. city scenes under different future scenarios. One scenario was 12 feet of sea level rise — right in the middle of the range now predicted due to the collapse of key Antarctic glaciers under way. Here is what some classic American city scenes would look like today with that much extra ocean.

HARVARD CAMPUS



More Photos at Climate Central ...
Quoting DonnieBwkGA:
What happened to the guy in Nederland CO? He's almost 3,000 feet higher than Denver. Want to know how much snow he got earlier this week. The reports I saw near Nederland were 15"-18".


My sister at 8500 feet a ways south of him got 20"
Follow

Jim Weber %u2600%uFE0FVerified account
%u200F@JimWeberFOX
E. Pacific hurricane season starts May 15, but already watching the first disturbance. #mfh pic.twitter.com/P3BEkkcuPf


711. wxmod
California and Mexico fires. MODIS

Quoting 626. StormWx:

Better start rainin if we're going to get "4-6 inches".





We had a total deluge today bubba 3 rounds of heavy storms around the bay... Some areas got real heavy rain. Lots of wind too...had 39 mph with the last round and 43 mph with the first but some of the branches down outside are indicative of 50 mph winds. It looked like a tropical storm earlier bubba. Scott was right about the heavy rains. I think that we could have some 95 to 100 degree temps in central Florida late next week as that dry May high sits over. It happened a few years ago had some late May upper 90s so that might happen again. It's gonna get hot bubba, and Scotty was right about to today's heavy rains. Hot and dry after hot and wet, that's how I like it bubba.

I know u may not be Scott's biggest fan but I love his stuff. Adrenaline and weather make a pretty fun combo. That's why I love weather. This blog would not be the same without Scott bubba.
Firestorm San Diego Spring 2014. Déjà vu 2007 and 2003. Listening to the dispatch on the emergency radio feed app and they are scrambling with the newest fire, #7 today and all within 30 miles of each other. The wind has switched from the East now to WNW here near the coast in Oceanside and gusty to 20mph. 90 degrees and humidity at 8%, dewpoint at 22%.
Be careful out there everyone.
Hey wu.

Im working on the final hurricane scorecard.
There are 3 hours and 20 minutes left to register to my prediction list

Those of you who dropped the forecast either here or in my blog will not be left out.
Im working on this right now.

My blog was flooded with predictions today... Lots of work
There is still time to join...

May 15 at midnight ET everything is over
Hello boys and girls.

Quoting 714. PedleyCA:

San Diego Fire Info


Good evening, Grasshopper.
Quoting 710. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Follow

Jim Weber %u2600%uFE0FVerified account
%u200F@JimWeberFOX
E. Pacific hurricane season starts May 15, but already watching the first disturbance. #mfh pic.twitter.com/P3BEkkcuPf





Looks like a winner Caleb.

Quoting 708. JohnLonergan:
Picture This: U.S. Cities Under 12 feet of Sea Level Rise

Maps are one way to understand what collapse of West Antarctic glaciers could eventually mean. Photos show it another way.

In 2013, Climate Central shared some of its sea level rise mapping data with artist Nickolay Lamm so that he could develop photorealistic images of U.S. city scenes under different future scenarios. One scenario was 12 feet of sea level rise — right in the middle of the range now predicted due to the collapse of key Antarctic glaciers under way. Here is what some classic American city scenes would look like today with that much extra ocean.

HARVARD CAMPUS



More Photos at Climate Central ...


More scare tactics from the "alarmists." Once again, lets gloom and doom it and show worst case scenarios of something that will take several hundred years, if it even happens at all. Great article from the New York Post.

Link
Quoting 719. Chucktown:



More scare tactics from the "alarmists." Once again, lets gloom and doom it and show worst case scenarios of something that will take several hundred years, if it even happens at all. Great article from the New York Post.

Link


I've always noted that the slow rate of change could preclude some of the disastrous sea level rise effects noted. Heck, we might even have amazing seawall technology but then. Still concerning.
Quoting 717. Grothar:



Good evening, Grasshopper.


Good evening Sensei, Airport here made it to 100F
currently:

Riverside, California (Airport)
Updated: 5:53 PM PDT on May 14, 2014
Clear
97 °F
Clear
Humidity: 4%
Dew Point: 2 °F

Wind: 13 mph from the ESE
Pressure: 29.92 in (Falling)
Quoting 713. BarometerGirl:

Firestorm San Diego Spring 2014. Déjà vu 2007 and 2003. Listening to the dispatch on the emergency radio feed app and they are scrambling with the newest fire, #7 today and all within 30 miles of each other. The wind has switched from the East now to WNW here near the coast in Oceanside and gusty to 20mph. 90 degrees and humidity at 8%, dewpoint at 22%.
Be careful out there everyone.


Most my old friends are posting a lot about it on FB, since I lived there for a long time, have many friends there still. Every year scary. I don't remember it being this bad back then, as it has been the last few years. Fire has always been a danger in Calif of course mind. But does seem has been getting worse and worse, and I remember some bad ones. And my friends' reports of their outdoor thermometers...remind me of why I prefer North Wales too. Was pushing 60' today here
Special Thanks to JRRP... For bringing the chart count to the 100th mark.
Todays State Extremes
Santa Ana 105F
Camarillo 102F
Santee 102F
Fullerton 102F
Los Alamitos 101F

Santee is down by San Diego, Santa Ana is just over the Mountains from me, glad its cooler here.
This heat is caused by compression winds 5.5F rise per 1000ft. drop as it goes down the mountains.
725. beell
2100 425 1 SSE KINCAID SPRINGS PIKE OH 3908 8326 SOFTBALL SIZED HAIL SOUTH OF LATHAM ON GRASSY FORK AND MC COY ROADS. TIME IS ESTIMATED. (ILN)

Did not find a confirmation yet.
2.5 Hours left

Eastern Pacific Season begins tomorrow.
Quoting 708. JohnLonergan:

Picture This: U.S. Cities Under 12 feet of Sea Level Rise

Maps are one way to understand what collapse of West Antarctic glaciers could eventually mean. Photos show it another way.

In 2013, Climate Central shared some of its sea level rise mapping data with artist Nickolay Lamm so that he could develop photorealistic images of U.S. city scenes under different future scenarios. One scenario was 12 feet of sea level rise — right in the middle of the range now predicted due to the collapse of key Antarctic glaciers under way. Here is what some classic American city scenes would look like today with that much extra ocean.

HARVARD CAMPUS



More Photos at Climate Central ...



I'm not sure, but I think this is a picture of Hawaii with the same scenario in the future.

There are now 9 reported fires in San Diego. Legoland evacuated.
Possible Amanda next week.
Published on May 14, 2014

Credits : FOX5 No copyright infringement intended as this is news for public. A fire burning in northern San Diego County generates a powerful updraft and a whirling tornado of flame.

The news just said that there were around 20 small fires in the area near the Etiwanda fire some caused by careless people tossing out lit cigarettes. I saw the fire down by San Onofre was caused by a truck on fire.
Also saw they were using a giant hovercraft to deliver Fire Equipment to fight the Camp Pendelton fire.
Published on May 14, 2014

Multiple fires burning in San Diego County

Dramatic Wildfire Video: "Oh my God!" California resident Kristin Michalec said on a video she shared with CNN as she drove through raging flames in Carlsbad, near where she lives.
San Diego County declares fire emergency

Fire has burned more than 1,500 acres, authorities say
CARLSBAD, California (CNN) —Southern California firefighters fought wildfires on at least three fronts Wednesday when two more blazes erupted in Carlsbad and nearby Camp Pendleton, prompting the evacuation of thousands of residents, businesses, a school and parts of a Marines installation.
San Diego County proclaimed a local emergency Wednesday afternoon due to "at least five wildland fires burning," the county said. At least 20 structures were destroyed. The emergency allows the county to more easily access state and federal resources.

Statewide drought, devil winds, low humidity and 90-degree-plus temperatures conspired to triple the number of wildfires Wednesday, which began with 350 firefighters fighting a 1,500-acre wildfire in San Diego.

But by noon, a second fire erupted 20 miles away in Carlsbad, burning 100 acres and prompting evacuations of thousands of people and a resort.

Then, a third ignited on Camp Pendleton, a training base, where a 150-acre fire led to evacuations of the military's O'Neill Heights Housing, the De Luz Child Development Center and Mary Fay Pendleton Elementary School, the Marines said.

"Oh my God!" California resident Kristin Michalec said on a video she shared with CNN as she drove through raging flames in Carlsbad, near where she lives.

"It was so hard to see because of the thick smoke," she later told CNN in an interview.

San Diego fire officials were trying to spare some of their crews to assist Carlsbad, where a 100-acre wildfire prompted a mandatory evacuation.

"We're trying to free resources to send to Carlsbad, which also has a serious fire going on and is just across the freeway," said San Diego Fire Department spokesman Lee Swanson.

"Humidity is 3 to 4%, and it's about 100 degrees," he added.

Carlsbad officials said Wednesday afternoon that "mandatory evacuations are in progress" in that city's so-called Poinsettia Fire.

San Diego County said more than 11,000 residents, businesses and cell phones in Carlsbad were notified to evacuate, but an exact number wasn't immediately available, the county said on Twitter.

That fire also prompted the evacuation of amusement park rides at Legoland in Carlsbad, the resort said on its Facebook page.

Firefighters were igniting backfires in hills as a preventive measure against the wildfire and any possible advances on a residential neighborhood.

"This is extreme. This has gone from dry conditions to volatile conditions," said a Carlsbad firefighter after using a torch to ignite backfire. wild brush. "This isn't something we don't normally see until November or September."

Back at the San Diego fire, authorities were concerned that hot, dry gusts called Santa Ana winds would set back their efforts since Tuesday morning to contain the wildfire, which improved overnight to 25% from 5%, said Cal Fire incident commander Ray Chaney.

The fire has burned 1,584 acres and prompted an evacuation Tuesday of 5,000 homes in San Diego and selected areas, authorities said. By Tuesday night, those residents had an "orderly return" to their homes, San Diego Police Chief Shelley Zimmerman said.

What the Atlantic currently looks like, i expect this to change.
Quoting 716. Grothar:

Hello boys and girls.




Yep - very late in our Florida Keys spring ... this one will bring north winds past Cancun. Will not change the temps much however.
738. wxmod
Quoting 719. Chucktown:



More scare tactics from the "alarmists." Once again, lets gloom and doom it and show worst case scenarios of something that will take several hundred years, if it even happens at all. Great article from the New York Post.

Link


I don't believe this catastrophe will take hundreds of years. In fact, you can watch a preview of it on the San Diego news. Have you been paying attention to the fires? The historic drought? There may be 30 million people migrating later this summer, looking for water!
Interesting convection and slight spin west of Guatemala
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone= GMZ765&warncounty=marine&firewxzone=&local_place1= 23NM WSW Steinhatchee FL&product1=Special Marine Warning#.U3Qj2om9K0c

NWS special marine warning west of cedar key for severe winds of at least 50 knots!!!
Severe squall and thunderstorms approaching Florida peninsula- velocity radars out of tampa and Tallahassee are indicating winds in the squall line of 45 to 60 mph in storms over the gulf, and special marine warnings have been issued as well. Multiple bouys offshore just behind this line were showing sustained winds over 40 and gusts over 50 mph as the line and front passed by earlier over the gulf just south of LA MS and AL earlier.
Strong squall line approaching florida's west coast should reach tomorrow morning. Ahead of this line strong to severe thunderstorms will develop and effect central Florida tomorrow. Day time heating, high cape, high dew points, and sea breeze collisions should produce strong to severe storms with areas like Orlando and Daytona beach getting slammed tomorrow. Damaging winds and heavy rain is likely.
Quoting 738. wxmod:



I don't believe this catastrophe will take hundreds of years. In fact, you can watch a preview of it on the San Diego news. Have you been paying attention to the fires? The historic drought? There may be 30 million people migrating later this summer, looking for water!


i dont think it will be that quick.
742. beell
Quoting 737. Patrap:




No one said it would be easy or cheap, and you have to start somewhere-but they will probably get it from several new coal fired plants.

The plan is not perfect but it is a plan.
743. txjac
Quoting 715. MaxWeather:

Hey wu.

Im working on the final hurricane scorecard.
There are 3 hours and 20 minutes left to register to my prediction list

Those of you who dropped the forecast either here or in my blog will not be left out.
Im working on this right now.

My blog was flooded with predictions today... Lots of work
There is still time to join...

May 15 at midnight ET everything is over


We appreciate you and Taz for collecting our predictions. Lot of work for you guys
Climate Change Is A Growing National Security Concern, Say Retired Military Leaders

Posted: 05/14/2014 1:41 pm EDT Updated: 05/14/2014 2:59 pm EDT

A report released Tuesday from an advisory group of retired U.S. military leadership echoes the findings of other recent reports on climate change: It is real, it is already happening and it poses major threats to the U.S. and the rest of the world.

The federally funded Center for Naval Analyses and its Military Advisory Board, a group of 16 retired three- and four-star generals and admirals, affirm in the report that climate events like flooding, prolonged drought and rising sea levels, and the subsequent population dislocation and food insecurity, will serve as "catalysts for instability and conflict" in vulnerable regions of the world.

"We no longer have the option to wait and see," former Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff and former Defense Secretary Leon Panetta write in a foreword to the report, which they describe as a "bipartisan call to action."

The report laments the politicization of climate change and continued inaction from Congress on the issue. "Politically charged debate has silenced sound public discourse," it reads in part.

"We hope this report will both influence public opinion as well as influence national security policymakers and leaders," retired Navy rear admiral and co-author David Titley told The Huffington Post. "We are speaking out because we believe the risk is accelerating, and will continue to do so unless action is taken now."

CNA's Military Advisory Board stressed the importance of addressing climate change collaboratively. "Neither the DOD, nor any other agency, can act alone to address the impacts of climate change," the report reads.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry told The New York Times on Tuesday that American foreign policy will be affected by the climate events predicted in this report. "The intelligence community takes it seriously, and it's translated into action," he said.

The report cites previous climate change and security assessments, as well as the work of the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the U.S. Government's Global Change Research Program. However, its authors also emphasize their own credentials.

"The messenger counts: This report is signed, not by environmentalists or climate scientists, but by 16 admirals and generals who collectively have over 500 years of service to our country," said Titley, who formerly served as Oceanographer of the Navy and now teaches in the meteorology department at Pennsylvania State University.

Climate change and national security aren't two separate issues, retired Brigadier General Stephen Cheney told Public Radio International last week. "The [2012] insurrection in Mali where the Tuareg went north -- drought caused that," said Cheney. "It dried up their crops, they had to move, and they had to make a living. They went to northern Mali, and that started the insurrection there."

"We know for a fact, obviously, that climate change contributed to that drought," Cheney went on. "That's just one example of instability that was caused by climate change, but there are probably dozens of others."

"This isn’t some far-off-in-the-future threat," climate scientist Michael Mann told HuffPost, adding that the report "reinforces what we've been hearing from national security experts for more than a decade: that among the greatest threat to national security in the decades ahead is the increased conflict that will arise as a growing global population grapples with decreased land, water and food resources due to the damaging impacts of climate change."

Tuesday's report comes a week after the latest National Climate Assessment, a massive interagency government report in its third edition since 2000. The congressionally mandated report, which clocks in at over 800 pages, is a detailed look at the current and future effects of climate change on the United States.

"Climate change, once considered an issue for a distant future, has moved firmly into the present," the National Climate Assessment states.

Yet despite the threats already posed by severe heat waves and heavy precipitation events, the NCA cites a number of ways for the U.S. to address climate change and stave off its worst effects.

"The climate hazards are looking as severe as ever, but I think there is a message contained in the report that our ability to respond is about getting going," Radley Horton, a scientist at Columbia University Earth Institute's Center for Climate Systems Research and one of the NCA's lead authors, told HuffPost.

A 2013 Pew Research poll in 39 countries found that only 40 percent of Americans see global climate change as a major threat to the U.S. When Americans were asked to rank a list of potential threats to their country, climate change came in sixth place, behind North Korea and Iran's nuclear programs, Islamic extremism, international financial instability and China's power. But to the rest of the world, climate change is seen as a much bigger danger. When the responses of the 39 countries are added up, climate change emerges as the No. 1 issue that people are concerned about.

Speaking at an energy policy conference at Columbia University earlier this month, Deputy Energy Secretary Daniel Poneman said the U.S. is "halfway" to meeting its goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 to 17 percent below where they were in 2005, a target laid out in President Barack Obama's Climate Action Plan last year.

At the same event, White House counselor John Podesta said there's "no silver bullet" to decarbonize the economy overnight. He asserted the role of natural gas as a "bridge fuel," but acknowledged there are "challenges" to its development.

"Only by combating human-caused climate change through a reduction of global carbon emissions can we hope to avoid an escalation of conflict and its dire societal consequences," Mann told HuffPost.
Quoting 738. wxmod:


I don't believe this catastrophe will take hundreds of years. In fact, you can watch a preview of it on the San Diego news. Have you been paying attention to the fires? The historic drought? There may be 30 million people migrating later this summer, looking for water!


Nope, there has never been "extreme" weather before. Wait, maybe there has. Here is 1411 pages of worldwide "extreme" weather dating back to 2 A.D. Give me a shout when you get done reading it.

Link

Tennis Thursday after work is likely cancelled but golf Friday evening is likely in ECFL.
748. wxmod
Quoting 745. Chucktown:



Nope, there has never been "extreme" weather before. Wait, maybe there has. Here is 1411 pages of worldwide "extreme" weather dating back to 2 A.D. Give me a shout when you get done reading it.

Link




Give me a shout when you decide to read the satellite photos.
Quoting 724. PedleyCA:

Todays State Extremes
Santa Ana 105F
Camarillo 102F
Santee 102F
Fullerton 102F
Los Alamitos 101F

Santee is down by San Diego, Santa Ana is just over the Mountains from me, glad its cooler here.
This heat is caused by compression winds 5.5F rise per 1000ft. drop as it goes down the mountains.


And Oxnard was also 102 today. Broke the record by several degrees.
Tomorrow is supposed to be a few degrees cooler, about 91. But today was forecast high of 95.

time to head home to the current temp of 83.
NWS marine warning for 60 mph severe winds west of cedar key... That's one heck of a squall line in the gulf just south of tally!

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzon e=GMZ765&warncounty=marine&firewxzone=&local_place 1=23NM+WSW+Steinhatchee+FL&product1=Special+Marine +Warning#.U3Qj2om9K0c
Line of t'storms increasing in intensity overnight approaching the west coast of FL.

Quoting 740. StPetersburgFL:


Severe squall and thunderstorms approaching Florida peninsula- velocity radars out of tampa and Tallahassee are indicating winds in the squall line of 45 to 60 mph in storms over the gulf, and special marine warnings have been issued as well. Multiple bouys offshore just behind this line were showing sustained winds over 40 and gusts over 50 mph as the line and front passed by earlier over the gulf just south of LA MS and AL earlier.
Strong squall line approaching florida's west coast should reach tomorrow morning. Ahead of this line strong to severe thunderstorms will develop and effect central Florida tomorrow. Day time heating, high cape, high dew points, and sea breeze collisions should produce strong to severe storms with areas like Orlando and Daytona beach getting slammed tomorrow. Damaging winds and heavy rain is likely.
Morning squall lines can be intense. It will be interesting to watch.
Quoting 719. Chucktown:



More scare tactics from the "alarmists." Once again, lets gloom and doom it and show worst case scenarios of something that will take several hundred years, if it even happens at all. Great article from the New York Post.

Link


Almost didn't click on the link because you indicated it was an article from the NY Post. Yes, it is quite an interesting article, w/ great embedded links, from the NY Times. I've actually bookmarked this one.

(Just not a fan of the Post...)
Quoting 739. stormpetrol:

Interesting convection and slight spin west of Guatemala
I was just wondering where were the posters from the Caymans seeing as things are kind of dry(cough) by you these days.
Nice to see you as always SP, even if it is to put your own "spin" on things.
You never know.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 0156
– Valid until: 05/15/2014 0500Z
– States affected: NY PA WV LE LO
– Issued: 05/14/2014 at 2305Z
TORNADO 0155
– Valid until: 05/15/2014 0100Z
– States affected: IN KY OH WV LE
– Issued: 05/14/2014 at 1725Z
Quoting 747. Chicklit:

Tennis Thursday after work is likely cancelled but golf Friday evening is likely in ECFL.

Haven't played tennis since high school, used to play my friend all the time who was on the tennis team. Fun sport. Never tried golf though.
Quoting 644. PensacolaDoug:



Gotta love the high country of Colorado! What it lacks in latitude it makes up for in altitude!
Hey, Doug... looks like the ski runs still have snow on them... lol...

Amateur video of Cedarville tornado:



Quoting 745. Chucktown:



Nope, there has never been "extreme" weather before. Wait, maybe there has. Here is 1411 pages of worldwide "extreme" weather dating back to 2 A.D. Give me a shout when you get done reading it.

Link




Have you ever considered getting your information on climate science from actual publications in the field of climate science?
Quoting 700. sar2401:


GN, Bonnie. Send us some cookies. :-0


Would if I could, Sar, 'cause they're delicious...mmmm mmmm...oatmeal raisin :D

If it stays cool enough tomorrow night, I'm going to make a pie :P

Now I'm signing off again - night everyone
765. etxwx
Water overuse threatens agriculture, industry in Hebei
Reporter: Ning Hong 丨 CCTV.com
The north China plain has always faced a shortage of water. As a result, people have been using underground water for a long time. But this continued use has severely depleted the water table, leading to a host of concerns.
Mini Longneck Dinosaur Discovered in South America

I wonder which country they found the fossil?



A replica of Christopher Columbus' flagship, the Santa Maria, sails circa 1892.

Grothar you were on this ship right?
Update winds have come down from earlier. In the previous frames storms were a lot stronger, but still looking like some thunderstorms over the gulf west of tampa...the area west of tampa we have to see if it will survive the trek to the west coast so many times the lines weaken for some odd reason.


Wow!! 60-70 Knot winds on velocity radar out of Tallahassee for storms just northwest of cedar key and south of perry; 45 to 55 knot winds on cells further south over the gulf that are west of tampa.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=tlh&produc t=N0V&overlay=11101111&loop=no
Click base velocity.
Quoting hydrus:
Morning squall lines can be intense. It will be interesting to watch.


Interesting Situation indeed. You have a tropical wave axis propagating eastward from the Bahamas and over the Florida Peninsula and a unusual strong cold front, with some forecasts and models hinting a non-tropical cut off low or perhaps a semi subtropical low. First tropical wave of the year for the Caribbean and western Atlantic.
What time tomorrow morning is this developing squall line supposed to reach the West Coast?
Quoting 763. Naga5000:


Have you ever considered getting your information on climate science from actual publications in the field of climate science?


That's not climate science, this is actual documentation of past weather. You AGW's are all the same, gotta find fault with any "push back" if it doesn't meet your agenda.
Quoting 770. HurrMichaelOrl:

What time tomorrow morning is this developing squall line supposed to reach the West Coast?



It will likely reach around 4 am but the heaviest stuff should form with the sea breezes around Orlando by 2 to 4 pm.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings


Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
FLASH FLOOD WARNING PEACHTREE CITY GA - KFFC 1037 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
FLASH FLOOD WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 839 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014
FLASH FLOOD WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 934 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING CLEVELAND OH - KCLE 847 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
FLASH FLOOD WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 745 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING PITTSBURGH PA - KPBZ 845 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING PITTSBURGH PA - KPBZ 842 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
Quoting 721. PedleyCA:



Good evening Sensei, Airport here made it to 100F
currently:

Riverside, California (Airport)
Updated: 5:53 PM PDT on May 14, 2014
Clear
97 °F
Clear
Humidity: 4%
Dew Point: 2 °F

Wind: 13 mph from the ESE
Pressure: 29.92 in (Falling)


Burning up I see.
storms have weakened quite a bit for now, will have to see if the GOM line intensifies again before reaching the coast, but earlier tonight the velocity radars had some insanely high signatures of 70 knots for the area south of perry but the areas are now much weaker. We will see. But behind the line sustained winds of gale force are occurring south of LA and MS according to many bouys in the area.

The marine warning for 50 knot plus winds is still in effect just south of perry over the NE gulf but the line is weakening. Most likely the heaviest weather will develop with the sea breeze tomorrow and go to the east coast of Florida.
Caleb, the dinosaur fossil was found in Argentina.
777. yoboi
Quoting 715. MaxWeather:
Hey wu.

Im working on the final hurricane scorecard.
There are 3 hours and 20 minutes left to register to my prediction list

Those of you who dropped the forecast either here or in my blog will not be left out.
Im working on this right now.

My blog was flooded with predictions today... Lots of work
There is still time to join...

May 15 at midnight ET everything is over




14-5-2
Quoting ncstorm:
ABC News posted some pictures yesterday evening of New Orleans..

they call it "Nightime in NOLA is Hauntingly Beautiful"

Enjoy the slide show..
Pretty!
Quoting 774. Dakster:



Burning up I see.


No AC used yet.....lol Just the water cooler, not hot enough for the AC....
Evening all.... just stopping in for a few before I head off to bed... we've had overcast / rainy conditions over New Providence for most of the last 24 hours... with a few torrential downpours - I drove home through one so gusty I had to fight to stay in my lane. From the Sat imagery it looks like most of the rain hit the north coast; in the SW it looked pretty bone dry on the ground. Although a bit cooler than one would expect, the precipitation certainly seems quite tropical in impact. Will be watching to see how long it takes for the opposing cold front to absorb this area of disturbed wx....
Hey guys just popping in to say I think our first Atlantic system will occur sometime between the 20th and 30th of May in the Western Caribbean and GOM area
Quoting 776. BaltimoreBrian:

Caleb, the dinosaur fossil was found in Argentina.
Thanks Brian, btw Dakster how' s the weather in Miami, do you prefer humid with lower temperatures or dry with warmer temperatures?
Quoting 766. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Mini Longneck Dinosaur Discovered in South America

I wonder which country they found the fossil?



A replica of Christopher Columbus' flagship, the Santa Maria, sails circa 1892.

Grothar you were on this ship right?


No. I was on the Nina. When Rodrigo de Triana was the first to sight land, I was so mad.
Quoting 771. Chucktown:



That's not climate science, this is actual documentation of past weather. You AGW's are all the same, gotta find fault with any "push back" if it doesn't meet your agenda.


Climate science isn't science publication? What are you smoking?
785. OCF
Checking the observational data on the Los Angeles NWS site: yikes, there's nowhere to run, no place to get away from it. 100 today in Long Beach (where I am). 95 in Avalon (Catalina Island). 93 in Morro Bay. There's just no sea breeze cooling anything, and that Avalon temperature shows that the offshore flow was strong enough to push very hot, very dry air across 20+ miles of much cooler water.

It ain't supposed to be that way. We're supposed to be well into "May gray", which is the precursor to "June gloom": dominated by onshore flow, marine layer, fog and stratus, and cool temperatures. (But no rain, except possible for a little drizzle wrung out of the thickest and strongest marine layers. It just doesn't rain this late in the year.)

This is an extension of what was happening for most of the winter, with extended periods of offshore flow and very low humidities - that was, and still is, our drought. Only now that the sun is strong, it's hot.
Quoting 781. wunderkidcayman:

I think we're in for a lot of home-growns, too, particularly in the Carib. ATL development may be
quashed by El Nino, but the contained and easily heated Carib probably won't be affected.
SAR, I read most of your comments and enjoy and plus many of them. You are a really smart guy with an incredible and complex life behind you. Like the guy in Blade Runner says "You've seen things most men only dream of. " But sometimes you make things up and bug the heck out of me. Plus you twist words to create strawmen, and knock them down with a cocksure retort.

Quoting 248. sar2401:
... Exactly what evidence is there that governments are unprepared, or that farmers don't have a clue about El Niño?

That is a straw man - something you made up.

I didn't say it, nor did the article.

I think that I will take the word of a reputable science magazine's reporting with quotes from top professionals in the field over some retired sheriff & search and rescue guy from Alabama who likes to comment on a weather blog. Your point may have some merit, but you will only convince the gullible that you are THE expert, and these respected academic professionals are not to be believed. I believe what Dr. Timmerman says - I don't think he makers things up, and he is in a position to talk to high level people involved in El Niño planning from around the world. Are you?

To repeat for the third time (with credentials added):

Quoting the New Scientist article:
"Most El Niño researchers say forecasters are being too conservative. "One thing I hear over and over again is 'we do not want to create a panic'," says Professor Axel Timmermann (Oceanography International Pacific Research Center - School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii). There is a reason: forecasting a big El Niño would cause a spike in food prices. "But it may be better to have this reaction at an early stage, when farmers can still adapt, rather than later."

The good news is that El Niño is a known quantity. "We already know what happens when a big El Niño hits," says Zafar Adeel, Director of the United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health in Hamilton, Canada.)
That means vulnerable populations can be identified and emergency plans put in place. But not everywhere has a plan.


"Not everywhere has a plan." Do you understand that SAR? If implies that some places do indeed have plans. Shades of gray - it's not all black and white like Fox News wants people to believe. When you were in S&R, did you say, "Well, we rescued most of them, time to head back home" or do you try to save everyone? That's what I see Dr. Adeel as doing, and I think that is a good thing.

Quoting 248. sar2401:
In addition, the much quoted figure of around 23,000 deaths from El Nino is pure poppycock. ...The entire idea that El Nino is going to be some killer event is more an invention of the media than any solid facts.

Wow - more off-the-cuff speculation. You need to look past your weather disaster / search & rescue days and recognize that El Nino mortality goes beyond simple weather-caused deaths.

The 254,414 morbidity figure is estimated additional sickness and injury numbers attributed to the 1997/98 El Nino by the World Bank sponsored research team. The World Bank is a very conservative organization that is a stickler for accurate actuarial date, and I trust their published findings for mortality attribution to El Niño.
Quoting 785. OCF:

Checking the observational data on the Los Angeles NWS site: yikes, there's nowhere to run, no place to get away from it. 100 today in Long Beach (where I am). 95 in Avalon (Catalina Island). 93 in Morro Bay. There's just no sea breeze cooling anything, and that Avalon temperature shows that the offshore flow was strong enough to push very hot, very dry air across 20+ miles of much cooler water.

It ain't supposed to be that way. We're supposed to be well into "May gray", which is the precursor to "June gloom": dominated by onshore flow, marine layer, fog and stratus, and cool temperatures. (But no rain, except possible for a little drizzle wrung out of the thickest and strongest marine layers. It just doesn't rain this late in the year.)

This is an extension of what was happening for most of the winter, with extended periods of offshore flow and very low humidities - that was, and still is, our drought. Only now that the sun is strong, it's hot.


It's still 89 degrees here. At 9PM. Unreal.
Welcome to the 2014 Pacific hurricane season, which promises to be a hyperactive and exciting one.

Perhaps starting as early as next week as a very strong kelvin wave moves through.

Quoting 789. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Welcome to the 2014 Pacific hurricane season, which promises to be a hyperactive and exciting one.

Perhaps starting as early as next week as a very strong kelvin wave moves through.




Let's go for another John (1994), shall we? Longevity, dude.
791. jpsb
Quoting 500. schistkicker:



1. Citations needed.
but not in the fashion and rate at which it's currently occurring. At least, not if you're trying to AVOID mass extinctions and ecosystem collapse.




The average temperature in 2013 was 58.3 degrees Fahrenheit (14.6 degrees Celsius), which is 1.1 °F (0.6 °C) warmer than the mid-20th century baseline. The average global temperature has risen about 1.4 °F (0.8 °C) since 1880, according to the new analysis. Exact rankings for individual years are sensitive to data inputs and analysis methods.


http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20140121/


Also recall that the climate is rebounding from a very cool little ice age. And keep in mind no measurable warming for 17+ years.

Someone earlier as applauding Germany for it use of renewables. I guess he is OK with deforrestation of rain forests. Because that is exactly what is happening to supply Europe with "renewables". My guess is far more damage is being done by deforestation than good.
From Houston-Galveston discussion:

SKIES HAVE GONE CLEAR INLAND AND WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DECOUPLING. ONLY THING THAT WOULD HAMPER PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE WET GROUND. EVEN THEN...EXPECT OVERNIGHT READINGS TO CLOSELY CHALLENGE OR BREAK LONG-STANDING RECORD LOWS.

Cooling has kicked in after 8 pm as winds died down. Temp dropped 13 F in 3 hours at local airport from 68F to 55F. Winds were calm at the 11 PM CDT observation.

Wet ground would cause extra cooling if the air were really dry, but the dewpoint is in the 40's and climbing with less dry air mixing down with the calm sir. Dewpoint up to 49. Some records miiiight be safe.

THE OFFICIAL RECORDS FOR TOMORROW (MAY 15TH) ARE...

CLL - 50 SET IN 1942
IAH - 49 SET IN 1890
HOU - 54 SET IN 1976
GLS - 57 SET IN 1926
793. jpsb
Quoting 613. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Since when did California become a desert?


California is experiencing its worst drought since record-keeping began in the mid 19th century, and scientists say this may be just the beginning. B. Lynn Ingram, a paleoclimatologist at the University of California at Berkeley, thinks that California needs to brace itself for a megadrought—one that could last for 200 years or more.


As a paleoclimatologist, Ingram takes the long view, examining tree rings and microorganisms in ocean sediment to identify temperatures and dry periods of the past millennium. Her work suggests that droughts are nothing new to California.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/02/1 40213-california-drought-record-agriculture-pdo-cl imate/
794. jpsb
Quoting 737. Patrap:




They are clearing the rain forests in East Asia to plant palm oil trees. Way to go Germany. Shut down your only clean energy source (nukes) to destroy our tropical rain forest! good thinking /not
The reports this week about the irreversible collapse of parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet make these on topic. As always, right click on images to enlarge.





Quoting 789. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Welcome to the 2014 Pacific hurricane season, which promises to be a hyperactive and exciting one.

Perhaps starting as early as next week as a very strong kelvin wave moves through.


That kelvin wave looks like a real butt kicker, eh?
Quoting Xulonn:
SAR, I read most of your comments and enjoy and plus many of them. You are a really smart guy with an incredible and complex life behind you. Like the guy in Blade Runner says "You've seen things most men only dream of. " But sometimes you make things up and bug the heck out of me. Plus you twist words to create strawmen, and knock them down with a cocksure retort.


That is a straw man - something you made up.

I didn't say it, nor did the article.

I think that I will take the word of a reputable science magazine's reporting with quotes from top professionals in the field over some retired sheriff & search and rescue guy from Alabama who likes to comment on a weather blog. Your point may have some merit, but you will only convince the gullible that you are THE expert, and these respected academic professionals are not to be believed. I believe what Dr. Timmerman says - I don't think he makers things up, and he is in a position to talk to high level people involved in El Nio planning from around the world. Are you?

To repeat for the third time (with credentials added):



"Not everywhere has a plan." Do you understand that SAR? If implies that some places do indeed have plans. Shades of gray - it's not all black and white like Fox News wants people to believe. When you were in S&R, did you say, "Well, we rescued most of them, time to head back home" or do you try to save everyone? That's what I see Dr. Adeel as doing, and I think that is a good thing.


Wow - more off-the-cuff speculation. You need to look past your weather disaster / search & rescue days and recognize that El Nino mortality goes beyond simple weather-caused deaths.

The 254,414 morbidity figure is estimated additional sickness and injury numbers attributed to the 1997/98 El Nino by the World Bank sponsored research team. The World Bank is a very conservative organization that is a stickler for accurate actuarial date, and I trust their published findings for mortality attribution to El Nio.

Sorry about that, I didnt mean to make you mad. I don't believe I set up any kind of straw man not did I twist or make up any facts.

The part about governments being unprepared is implied by Dr. Timmermann saying forecasters are being too conservative so as not to cause a panic. I asked for evidence that El Nino forecasters are not being upfront with what they know about this situation and, by extension, that they are not telling their governments. Dr, Timmermann made a statement which is pure speculation unless he (or you) can back it up with some facts. Your appeal to authority doesn't cut it when it's one person's opinion.

Of course not every country or agency in the world has a plan to deal with El Nino. What has that to do with what either researcher said? That was from the author of this article. As far as I can tell, he has no experience with emergency planning at all. Again, what are the facts? How many countries have no plan, why not, and what can be done about it? This is the kind of questions a good reporter asks. He doesn't just take anyone's word for something or, worse, make it up out of whole cloth..

I gave you a link to weather caused deaths. These numbers were arrived at by experts after careful study, not me. The numbers you quote are from the World Bank are from numbers that were reported to them by each country. They did zero research to find out if those numbers were correct. Mortality and morbidity numbers as reported by individual countries tend to be "soft" numbers. It's almost impossible to verify these numbers as being in excess of normal mortality and morbidity in the regions involved. Please note that Oceania, the region most affected by El Nino, reported very low mortality figures and no morbidity. This is also true for South America, North America, and Europe. Only Asia and, particularly, Africa, the region least affected by El Nino, reported these fantastic mortality and morbidity figures. Do your really think most countries in Asia and Africa have the manpower, skill level, and infrastructure to be able to report these kinds of numbers precisely? They don't, but these regions exist economically on World Bank loans. In a disaster like that depicted by their mortality and morbidity figures, they are eligible for refunding of existing loans and low interests loans to help them recover. These countries have an economic incentive to maximize damage, and that's just what they did. I'm not saying that there was no damage, simply that the numbers reported as the human toll are, at best unreliable,and, at worst, completely false. Does it seem realistic to you that North America (which includes Panama to the World Bank) and South America would report zero morbidity while Africa reported over 96,000 morbidity deaths? There was quite a bit of controversy over these figures when they came out. You can find articles about it on the web if you care to read about it.

As a final point, I live in Alabama now, but all my 27 years of experience in emergency planning and management, beginning in 1978, was in California. We were hit pretty hard in 1982-83, and again in 1986-88 by strong El Nino's, not to mention the other weak to moderate El Nino's during my time. so we were no babes in the wood when it came to dealing with El Nino. We did a lot of planning in 1996-97 on how to deal with the likely effects of the latest El Nino, and we talked to a lot of other agencies and countries about their plans. I don't claim to be an expert, but I do have more than just a passing knowledge of how planning for an El Nino goes.
Quoting StPetersburgFL:
storms have weakened quite a bit for now, will have to see if the GOM line intensifies again before reaching the coast, but earlier tonight the velocity radars had some insanely high signatures of 70 knots for the area south of perry but the areas are now much weaker. We will see. But behind the line sustained winds of gale force are occurring south of LA and MS according to many bouys in the area.

The marine warning for 50 knot plus winds is still in effect just south of perry over the NE gulf but the line is weakening. Most likely the heaviest weather will develop with the sea breeze tomorrow and go to the east coast of Florida.

It finally quit raining here in SE AL about an hour ago. The storms dropped 2.90" in a bit more than four hours. The thunderstorms were quite strong at about 4:00, and there was a tornado reported in my county. I have yet to see confirmation of this. The rain switch to stratiform type drizzle and light rain that was very persistent but the rain rate slacked of enough that the ground was able to absorb the rain, and we got away with no significant flooding. I kind of hate to state anything positively with the way this crazed year has gone, but it appears the line of storms is now moving east in GA and FL, and I see no signs of further development behind it.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
The reports this week about the irreversible collapse of parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet make these on topic. As always, right click on images to enlarge.






Brian, I think that's a really good graphic, and it's why I've been moaning about previously. It explains the warming and rising seas in words easy to understand with some good pictures to go with it. The average person might even read it. Where did the graphic come from and what's it going to be used for? This is the kind of thing that needs widespread distribution.
Wow i finally get back on and everything has changed! Finally back to hurricane season! Well of course E. Pacific season. Hows everybody and Good Morning!
Quoting 794. jpsb:



They are clearing the rain forests in East Asia to plant palm oil trees. Way to go Germany. Shut down your only clean energy source (nukes) to destroy our tropical rain forest! good thinking /not


So, Germany is using palm oil to produce electricity? Nurse!
Good morning everyone. Yvette continues to circle over the Balkans, Austria und Southern Poland today, dumping lots of rain, combined with very strong winds in some areas:










Flooding in Maglaj (Bosnia/Herzegovina). Source.
803. jpsb
Quoting 801. yonzabam:



So, Germany is using palm oil to produce electricity? Nurse!



"The current proposal by politicians to have bio-energy supply 23 percent, sometimes even 30 percent of our overall energy supply is entirely illusionary," is the sobering conclusion drawn by Bernhard Schink, one of three coordinators of the study and professor of microbial ecology at the University of Konstanz. Germany is now part of what has become known as the "energy revolution," relying heavily on bio-gas, bio-diesel, and bio-ethanol.


http://www.dw.de/is-germany-headed-the-wrong-way- on-biofuel/a-16130327


The EU Biofuel Policy and Palm Oil: Cutting subsidies or cutting rainforest?

This study by the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) for Friends of the Earth Europe finds that Europe’s drivers are being forced to fill their tanks with increasing amounts of palm oil, with reliance on the controversial biofuel set to rise even further.

According to the data, palm oil use has increased much more than predicted and now stands at 20% of the biodiesel mix. The EU consumes 40% more palm oil (for food, fuel and cosmetics) today compared to 6 years ago, despite continual warnings about the unsustainability of palm oil expansion.

Palm oil associated with deforestation, wildlife loss and community conflicts, and is accelerating climate change. The findings put more pressure on the EU to put a halt to increasing biofuels.

http://www.foeeurope.org/IISD-EU-biofuel-policy-p alm-oil-090913
Quoting 794. jpsb:



They are clearing the rain forests in East Asia to plant palm oil trees. Way to go Germany. Shut down your only clean energy source (nukes) to destroy our tropical rain forest! good thinking /not

Nukes are clean, of course. Anything but sun and wind, eh? Anything! Well mate, close your eyes: http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/05/13/343692 3/germany-energy-records/
Quoting 763. Naga5000:



Have you ever considered getting your information on climate science from actual publications in the field of climate science?

That is a bit brutal. You know that facts are taboo, don't you?...
Looks like it could be another wild active hurricane season
Quoting 771. Chucktown:



That's not climate science, this is actual documentation of past weather. You AGW's are all the same, gotta find fault with any "push back" if it doesn't meet your agenda.


Sorry Chuck, just because its on the internet doesn't make it true. You should really check your source information; this has nothing to do with agenda.
808. MahFL
Quoting 729. PedleyCA:

There are now 9 reported fires in San Diego. Legoland evacuated.


Lego contributes a lot to global warming.
Quoting 806. rutofthewild:

Looks like it could be another wild active hurricane season
What makes you think so?
Morning all.



Nothing much going on right now, but it could be quite interesting as the day heats up...

BTW, anybody watching the MJO?
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Been a monsoon today on the northside of Orlando Gro. Models are showing 4" to 6" of rain across western FL later this evening thru the overnight hours.


I will dish you your daily crow bubba. As i stated, there was never going to be 4-6". I wouldnt put so much faith in these models you look at, makes you look bad most the time!

Tampa Airport rain 5/14/14: 0.60
St. Petersburg: 0.27
Orlando International: 0.23

Today though is a different story. Showers will be moving through later on.
all the hurricane seasons are wild and crazy last yr was no exception how slow it was.
North FL is in for some rain today. 2-4" possible according to the NWS.



Quoting 745. Chucktown:
Nope, there has never been "extreme" weather before. Wait, maybe there has. Here is 1411 pages of worldwide "extreme" weather dating back to 2 A.D. Give me a shout when you get done reading it.
Link
Of course there has always been "extreme weather", nobody has stated otherwise, so you are arguing with imaginary people in your head. The point is that with accelerating AGW the magnitude of the extremes will be greater, and the local climates of most areas on Earth will be changing rapidly compared to former natural rates of change that were traceable mostly to tectonics and relatively mild orbital forcings.
Afghan notebook: Pulling together in face of disaster
By Daud Qarizadah BBC Afghanistan reporter, 15 May 2014 Last updated at 01:44 GMT
Floods and landslides have claimed hundreds of lives in northern Afghanistan. Floodwaters have cut the main road link between north and south, but a wave of sympathy for the victims is uniting Afghans as never before. ...
First 2014 EPAC TWO:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU MAY 15 2014

CORRECTED FOR DATE AND TIME IN THE HEADER

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE:

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE
SEASON, WHICH WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30. LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR
THE NUMBER OF NAMED STORMS, HURRICANES, AND MAJOR HURRICANES ARE
15, 8, AND 4, RESPECTIVELY.

THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2014 IS AS FOLLOWS:

NAME PRONUNCIATION NAME PRONUNCIATION
------------------------------------------------- ------------
AMANDA UH-MAN-DUH MARIE MUH-REE
BORIS BOR-EES NORBERT NOR-BERT
CRISTINA KRIS-TEE-NUH ODILE OH-DEAL
DOUGLAS DUG-LUSS POLO POH-LOH
ELIDA ELL-EE-DAH RACHEL RAY-CHULL
FAUSTO FOW-STO SIMON SY-MUHN
GENEVIEVE JEH-NUH-VEEV TRUDY TROO-DEE
HERNAN HER-NAHN VANCE VANSS
ISELLE EE-SELL WINNIE WIN-EE
JULIO HOO-LEE-O XAVIER ZAY-VEE-UR
KARINA KUR-REE-NUH YOLANDA YO-LAHN-DA
LOWELL LO-UHL ZEKE ZEEK

THIS PRODUCT, THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK, BRIEFLY DESCRIBES
SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE
ISSUANCE TIMES OF THIS PRODUCT ARE 5 AM, 11 AM, 5 PM, AND 11 PM PDT.
AFTER THE CHANGE TO STANDARD TIME IN NOVEMBER, THE ISSUANCE TIMES
ARE 4 AM, 10 AM, 4 PM, AND 10 PM PST.

A SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED TO PROVIDE
UPDATES, AS NECESSARY, IN BETWEEN THE REGULARLY SCHEDULED
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS. SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL
BE ISSUED UNDER THE SAME WMO AND AWIPS HEADERS AS THE REGULAR
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS.

A STANDARD PACKAGE OF PRODUCTS, CONSISTING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
PUBLIC ADVISORY, THE FORECAST/ADVISORY, THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION, AND THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES, IS ISSUED EVERY
SIX HOURS FOR ALL ONGOING TROPICAL CYCLONES. IN ADDITION, A
SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO ADVISE OF
SIGNIFICANT UNEXPECTED CHANGES OR TO MODIFY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS A BRIEF STATEMENT TO INFORM OF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR TO POST OR CANCEL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS. IT IS USED IN LIEU OF OR TO PRECEDE THE
ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL ADVISORY. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES, WHICH
CAN BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME, CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ61-65
KNHC, AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCUEP1-5.

ALL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TEXT AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE
AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV. YOU CAN ALSO
INTERACT WITH NHC ON FACEBOOK AT HTTPS://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNHC.
NOTIFICATIONS ARE AVAILABLE ON TWITTER WHEN SELECT NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER PRODUCTS ARE ISSUED. INFORMATION ABOUT OUR EAST
PACIFIC TWITTER FEED IS AVAILABLE AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/TWITTER.PHP.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Quoting 650. GTstormChaserCaleb:

How is it going Doug, long time no see?

It's going ok Caleb! I don't have nearly as much free time as I used to so I don't add much to the conversation here. I do lurk every few days. When the tropics heat up I'll be paying more attention. During the slow times the politics of weather is so rampant here and I don't want to waste my time and energy. Take care!
Quoting 818. PensacolaDoug:


It's going ok Caleb! I don't have nearly as much free time as I used to so I don't add much to the conversation here. I do lurk every few days. When the tropics heat up I'll be paying more attention. During the slow times the politics of weather is so rampant here and I don't want to waste my time and energy. Take care!

Great to see you Doug. I've hardly ever agreed with any of your stances here and elsewhere but I have always enjoyed your posts. Hope all is going well for you..
Quoting 784. Jedkins01:



Climate science isn't science publication? What are you smoking?

We warned him about the brown acid.
From the Miami NWS Disco...

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
THE WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVED CLOSE TO SOUTH FLORIDA
YESTERDAY BECAME ABSORBED WITH THE VERY IMPRESSIVE TROUGH
DEEPENING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS ENDED UP NOT COOLING
THE UPPER LEVELS MUCH WITH DAYTIME CONVECTION AT A MINIMUM. THE
UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING EAST TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE
RIDGE AMPLIFLYING OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. AS THE TROUGH MOVES
EAST, A BAND OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWAT INCREASING TO NEAR TWO
INCHES BY MIDDAY TODAY. HOWEVER, MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
LOOKING VERY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS DEVELOPING WITH CAPE AT
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG SO ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES INTO NORTH FLORIDA
THIS MORNING. A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN ENSUE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA SO THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. DUE TO THE DEEPNESS OF THE UPPER TROUGH, THE COLD FRONT
WILL NOT BE A FAST MOVER BUT WILL BE APPROACHING THE WEST COAST BY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE EAST COAST AS CONVECTION
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR AND MOVES TOWARDS THE EAST.
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE WIND
WILL REMAIN SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ALONG THE EAST
COAST AND THIS COULD AID IN SOME VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER,
WITH THE WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THE CONVECTION WILL STILL LACK
ROBUST UPLIFT BUT THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SOME GUSTY WINDS. THE LOCALLY RUN HIGH RESOLUTION WRF SHOWS THIS
SCENARIO WITH CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS
EVENING AND THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE HRRR AS OF THIS WRITING ONLY GOES OUT TO 19Z BUT ALSO SHOWS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AFTER 17Z AND
MOVING TOWARDS THE EAST.

THE NAM, GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW SHOWING THE COLD FRONT MOVING OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY 12Z FRIDAY WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND THE FRONT UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
WILL THEN FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FROM ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING PWAT DROPPING TO AROUND
ONE-HALF INCH AND IF THIS VERIFIES WOULD BE SOME OF THE DRIEST
AIR FOR MAY IN SOUTH FLORIDA SINCE 1948. THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY
WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ALONG BOTH
COASTS WHICH ARE FIVE TO TEN DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGE. THE LOWS
SUNDAY MORNING WILL ONLY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER.

east coast going to get stormy tomorrow.......................................... .......
Good Morning:

It is a cool morning along the Central Gulf Coast! Temps in the mid 50s. Tonight's lows will dip into the upper 40s in the Mobile, AL area!~ What? And today is May 15th, 2014.

Today is the beginning of the 2014 East PAC hurricane season. Sometimes they have more named storms form in the E PAC during El Nino years. Do you believe we are going to get an El Nino form early in the summer, or will it happen during later summer/early fall? Might get interesting! Have a great day!
cnn says thousands of folks evacuated from san diego california because of the fires there....dont we have a san diego poster here...hope he and his family members are safe......................
After the rain today it dries out for some time with temperatures at average for the foreseeable future in Central FL!

Quoting 791. jpsb:




The average temperature in 2013 was 58.3 degrees Fahrenheit (14.6 degrees Celsius), which is 1.1 °F (0.6 °C) warmer than the mid-20th century baseline. The average global temperature has risen about 1.4 °F (0.8 °C) since 1880, according to the new analysis. Exact rankings for individual years are sensitive to data inputs and analysis methods.


http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20140121/


Also recall that the climate is rebounding from a very cool little ice age.


Incorrect. There are many peer reviewed research papers on the subject of the little ice age and it's causes/effects. The average regional temperature decrease in the regions affected by it have been termed "modest", about -.5C or so.

But more importantly, you dance around the elephant in the room. This "rebounding" you mention. Where did it come from? What caused temperatures to warm up? For the planet to warm up their either needs to be an increase in incoming radiation, a decrease in outgoing radiation, or a mixture of both. Detailed solar records have shown no appreciable increase in incoming radiation, so that implies a decrease in outgoing radiation. What has changed about our planet in the past 200 years that would cause a decrease in outgoing radiation (i.e., trap more heat)?

And keep in mind no measurable warming for 17+ years.


Cherry picking isn't that hard. Neither is using incorrect means of establishing statistical significance.


Someone earlier as applauding Germany for it use of renewables. I guess he is OK with deforrestation of rain forests. Because that is exactly what is happening to supply Europe with "renewables". My guess is far more damage is being done by deforestation than good.


Climate scientists study climate. They do not make policy. They have no power to enforce policy. Policy is made by politicians.
Well it cooled down by 27 degrees in the last 8 hours. Unfortunaely, temps will probably go up by 40 later today. No humidity to speak of.
That variably-cloudy weather is absolutely boring.

The dust has been omnipresent for ages!! Even more than previous years during april and may. That milky sky is truly ugly. It's not the beautiful tropical sky people dream to see...

Best to those fleeing fire in San Diego, CA today.

Quoting CaribBoy:
That variably-cloudy weather is absolutely boring.



Would you like something like this from Spain?

I posted that Fire raw video last night as I came across it skyepony..

Bad stuff
Flood in Serbia on Thursday, 15 May, 2014 at 12:34 (12:34 PM) UTC.
Description
The heaviest rains and floods in the past 120 years hit Bosnia and Serbia this week, killing three people, cutting off electricity and leaving several towns and villages isolated. The three casualties, one of them a firefighter on a rescue mission, drowned in Serbia. The country declared a state of emergency in 18 towns and cities, including the capital, Belgrade. Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic said on Thursday he would declare an emergency for the whole country at 1100 GMT. "This is the greatest flooding disaster ever. Not only in the past 100 years; this has never happened in Serbia's history," Vucic told a news conference. "More rain fell in one day than in four months." Serbian Energy Minister Aleksandar Antic said power supplies were cut to around 100,000 households, mostly in central Serbia. Serbia's power company, Elektroprivreda Srbije, said it had mobilized teams to monitor the situation on the ground. Flooding had disrupted production in two coal mines supplying major thermal plants, the company said.



Quoting 830. AussieStorm:



Would you like something like this from Spain?




No, either a gorgeous clear day (with strong thunderstorms in the background) or a very dark rainy day.
NAVGEM 60 hours out:



GFS 132 hours out:



GEM 216 hours out:



IR-SIM 132 hours out:



CFS 126 hours out: (red=low pressure)



So many models support this system. Maybe Amanda is arriving.
Quoting 831. Patrap:

I posted that Fire raw video last night as I came across it skyepony..

Bad stuff

That is bad stuff.

I changed it to one uploaded this morning for a different video.
Today, I watch my Oldest Graduate from LSU Nursing School.
She is the first College Graduate on my side of the Family.
This Day, is truly a Joyous one for my Parents in heaven.
I want to thank all who had a role in raising Samantha scholastically, religious wise and with a helping thought word, or deed.
Thank you, thank you...

Thank you.
First one of the offical season.

So utterly irresponsible to claim that "Human-caused global warming has set in motion an unstoppable slow-motion collapse of the glaciers..."!  How can you look in the mirror and not wince?  I can only conclude that someone is paying you to make such outrageous statements, or that you are mentally ill.  And I have much more evidence to make that conclusion than you have to have made such a ridiculous claim.  Wow!  Just wow!
"Potential Amanda" at peak strength:

GFS 186 hours.

Quoting 832. Skyepony:

Flood in Serbia on Thursday, 15 May, 2014 at 12:34 (12:34 PM) UTC.
Description
The heaviest rains and floods in the past 120 years hit Bosnia and Serbia this week, killing three people, cutting off electricity and leaving several towns and villages isolated. The three casualties, one of them a firefighter on a rescue mission, drowned in Serbia. The country declared a state of emergency in 18 towns and cities, including the capital, Belgrade. Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic said on Thursday he would declare an emergency for the whole country at 1100 GMT. "This is the greatest flooding disaster ever. Not only in the past 100 years; this has never happened in Serbia's history," Vucic told a news conference. "More rain fell in one day than in four months." Serbian Energy Minister Aleksandar Antic said power supplies were cut to around 100,000 households, mostly in central Serbia. Serbia's power company, Elektroprivreda Srbije, said it had mobilized teams to monitor the situation on the ground. Flooding had disrupted production in two coal mines supplying major thermal plants, the company said.



Dooh! Yvette really is a bad one. Power outages in Austria as well. School closed in some areas.




Accumulated rainfall in the next 24hours in l.

I have to run. See you later.
Lordy, seems the ol Lid is off the burling kettle.

LoL
Quoting 836. Patrap:

Today, I watch my Oldest Graduate from LSU Nursing School.
She is the first College Graduate on my side of the Family.
This Day, is truly a Joyous one for my Parents in heaven.
I want to thank all who had a role in raising Samantha scholastically, religious wise and with a helping thought word, or deed.
Thank you, thank you...

Thank you.


Congratulations both to her and to you as the very proud PaPa !!

a few years ago my daughter did the same thing in graduating from Bradley University .. the first in I hope a long line of graduates I hope !!
Quoting 205. JohnLonergan:

From The New Yorker:

CONSERVATIVES PRAISE ANTARCTIC ICE SHEET MELT AS BEAUTIFUL EXPRESSION OF FREE MARKET

NTARCTICA (The Borowitz Report)—A delegation of conservative members of Congress paid a visit to the West Antarctic Ice Sheet melt today to witness firsthand what one of them called “the most beautiful expression of the free market I’ve ever seen.”

The author of that remark, Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wisconsin), said that he was awestruck after watching gigantic chunks of glacier disintegrate and crash to the sea.

“Every schoolchild in America needs to see this,” he said. “This is the free market at work in the way that God and Ayn Rand intended.”

Rep. Ryan said that watching the now-unstoppable Ice Sheet melt in action reaffirmed his belief in “the glory and might of free-market forces.”

“Now more than ever, I believe that government needs to get out of the way of glaciers,” he said.

Another member of the delegation, Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minnesota), decried what she called the “alarmism” surrounding reports of the collapsing Ice Sheet.

“The Ice Sheet melt is only a problem if you live in Antarctica, which, honestly, is a pretty dumb place to live,” she said. “Polar bears live in Antarctica because they have no choice, but we’re not polar bears.”
Quoting 838. dutchessweather:

So utterly irresponsible to claim that "Human-caused global warming has set in motion an unstoppable slow-motion collapse of the glaciers..."! How can you look in the mirror and not wince? I can only conclude that someone is paying you to make such outrageous statements, or that you are mentally ill. And I have much more evidence to make that conclusion than you have to have made such a ridiculous claim. Wow! Just wow!


Smart people such as Dr. Masters know they've won the intellectual debate when their frustrated and desperately flailing opponents resort to calling them mentally ill...
Thanx whitewabbit, it is a Good day fer sure.

Hope yours is fine as well too.

57.4 F is a Bonus number too, wearing this suit.
Quoting 829. Skyepony:

Best to those fleeing fire in San Diego, CA today.


Today's expected to be the worst "1-2-3" day of the entire event, with dozens of locations expected to see single-digit humidity, double-digit winds, and triple-digit temperatures.



Yikes...

Meanwhile, widespread 30s throughout Texas this morning, a relative rarity for the middle of May.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU MAY 15 2014

~CORRECTED FOR DATE AND TIME IN THE HEADER~

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE:

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE
SEASON, WHICH WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30.

LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR
THE NUMBER OF NAMED STORMS, HURRICANES, AND MAJOR HURRICANES ARE
15, 8, AND 4, RESPECTIVELY.
Good morning.

I will be back to answer questions after I have my morning coffee.
Quoting 845. Neapolitan:



Smart people such as Dr. Masters know they've won the intellectual debate when their frustrated and desperately flailing opponents resort to calling them mentally ill...


True statement. Although I think it is somewhat of a natural response in some to doubt such dire warnings ... kind of a "hope springs eternal" mentality, if you will.

Thank you vary march.
Quoting 797. sar2401:


Sorry about that, I didn't mean to make you mad...
You didn't make me mad, SAR, but you definitely issued a challenge that I took up. I truly appreciate your civil response, and willingness to actually debate an issue - a trait that a fair number do not share at this blog. Unlike some of the anti-science and anti-AGW/CC trolls here, your comments are usually worth a response. We are both obviously more into essays rather than exclusively snippets and comments, and that is where you can get a bit deeper into a discussion. I did about 10 hours of research in looking for more info to support my points. I even found information in older scanned pages of reports and papers that are not easily searchable.

I agree with you that the World Bank numbers are soft, but just because the numbers may have a higher margin of error does not mean that they should be ignored. They should still be used in overall planning for complex, mega-events such as ENSO-related effects.

The article was short - more like a cable news blurb rather than a long NYT or serious magazine article with several thousand words, and you and I obviously interpreted it differently. You apparently looked for the flaws to discredit it, and I looked for the essence in spite of its flaws and limitations.

It is interesting how you, a pragmatic, by the book law & order guy, differ from me in our perceptions. You seem to be practical with a focus on "by the book methods" - good traits for what you did for so many years, and it likely served you well.

I am essentially an ecologist with a focus on how people relate to the nature and the psychological and sociological issues that limit humans in their ability to plan for the future and especially make sacrifices now for future benefit - or simply to prevent or mitigate future disaster. I have at least a lower-division university background in most of the basic sciences - chemistry, physics, ecology, biology, forestry, geology, astronomy, math, and statistics. And I even took an online course from a university in climate science last year. I appreciate having full data and understanding, but sometimes you have to work with less knowledge than you would like, because that is all that is available.

I saved the rest of your reply and will bring it up another time, especially the concept of "an appeal to authority" and how it can sometimes be useful and at other times full of pitfalls.

I appreciate your willingness to actually participate in debate and conversation, and look forward to our next "debate," even though it may get heated.

I need to stop writing and get this posted - before the dreaded "SAR Syndrome" of Dr. Masters posting a new entry makes it the last one on the page.

it appears that the rapid El Nino event maybe delayed abit. There are no signs of any WWB at the moment.The apparent kelvin wave is not as strong to move the pool of warm water further east. it is quite possible the atlantic season will not be as dormant as some may want to think.
Quoting 844. Patrap:



That comment you posted at 844 surly has to be a joke.
Quoting 205. JohnLonergan:
Although I am not familiar with the US system of government and how it works or why they would be members of it in Antarctica, the statement about polar bears being there is crazy.
They are not so dumb as to live there, unlike a lot of scientists.

Here's a bit of a quote from a polar bear article:-

"Polar bears live in the circumpolar north in areas where they can hunt seals at openings in the sea ice called leads. They are found in Canada (home to roughly 60% of the world's polar bears), the U.S. (Alaska), Greenland, Russia, and Norway (the Svalbard archipelago). Scientists have identified 19 populations of polar bears living in four different ice regions in the Arctic.

Although popular art and children's books often show polar bears and penguins together, the two live at opposite poles. Polar bears live in the Arctic. Penguins live in Antarctica."

Link
Polar Bears do not live in the Antarctic how ignorant can one be, politicians need schooling in Science and geography.
Quoting Patrap:

Quoting 811. StormWx:



I will dish you your daily crow bubba. As i stated, there was never going to be 4-6". I wouldnt put so much faith in these models you look at, makes you look bad most the time!

Tampa Airport rain 5/14/14: 0.60
St. Petersburg: 0.27
Orlando International: 0.23

Today though is a different story. Showers will be moving through later on.



Got .4" at my house here on the West Coast. That's a little bit short of the 4-6".
Quoting 844. Patrap:

“The Ice Sheet melt is only a problem if you live in Antarctica, which, honestly, is a pretty dumb place to live,” she said. “Polar bears live in Antarctica because they have no choice, but we’re not polar bears.”


Yikes... as a registered Republican, this quote is disturbing - whether or not it was taken out of context. Michelle Bachmann has been spewing nonsense for years now.
Quoting 855. fireflymom:

Polar Bears do not live in the Antarctic how ignorant can one be, politicians need schooling in Science and geography.



It could be an interesting experiment in the aided survival of polar bears to collect a fair number of them and transport them to Antarctica if their environment becomes seriously threatened.
The possible future sight of a few hundred tranquilly sleeping on a wide bodied jumbo jet waiting for the sedation to wear off would be a lot more welcome than out of place government officials who are unaware of the locations of most things but probably know where Wall St. is!
Given that they will probably have little problem adapting the southern frozen wasteland, there is plenty of scope for them there.
A sort of polar version of what has inadvertently happened with the Burmese pythons in Florida.
If I recall correctly, the CMC was predicting a prolific low pressure center off the east coast of northern Florida for May 15.
860. MahFL
Quoting 857. LongIslandBeaches:



Yikes... as a registered Republican, this quote is disturbing - whether or not it was taken out of context. Michelle Bachmann has been spewing nonsense for years now.


It's a humorous article, they did not visit the ice sheet.
Quoting 858. PlazaRed:


It could be an interesting experiment in the aided survival of polar bears to collect a fair number of them and transport them to Antarctica if their environment becomes seriously threatened.
The possible future sight of a few hundred tranquilly sleeping on a wide bodied jumbo jet waiting for the sedation to wear off would be a lot more welcome than out of place government officials who are unaware of the locations of most things but probably know where Wall St. is!
give that they will probably have little problem adapting the southern frozen wasteland there is plenty of scope for them there.
A sort of polar version of what has inadvertently happened with the Burmese pythons in Florida.


I hope that's tongue in cheek. The issue of polar bears going extinct due to melting Arctic ocean ice is codswallop. There will probably be fewer of them, but they are opportunist hunters, and are at home on ice free rocky coasts, where they hunt walrus pups.

They would create mayhem in Antarctica, where seals and penguins have no experience of land predators.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
817 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014

MDZ003>005-009-010-501-502-VAZ025>031-036>040-042 -050-051-501>504-
WVZ050>053-055-501>506-161000-
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-AUGUSTA-
ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON-
ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORA NGE-CULPEPER-
NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND-
EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY -
WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON-
817 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR
COUNTIES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS...TONIGHT FOR THE TIER
OF COUNTIES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS...AND OVERNIGHT FOR
NORTH-CENTRAL MARYLAND. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
AHEAD OF A SLOW- MOVING COLD FRONT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COUNTIES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY
EVENING FOR COUNTIES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT...
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY MORNING. RIVER FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

$$
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Antartica wildlife.......................................... ...................................Link
866. jpsb
Quoting 826. Xyrus2000:



This "rebounding" you mention. Where did it come from? What caused temperatures to warm up? For the planet to warm up their either needs to be an increase in incoming radiation, a decrease in outgoing radiation, or a mixture of both. Detailed solar records have shown no appreciable increase in incoming radiation, so that implies a decrease in outgoing radiation.



Nature variation in temps happens, medieval warm period


The temperature reconstruction is based on the Sphagnum δ13Ccellulose /temperature dependency observed in calibration studies. Reconstructed GST anomalies show considerable centennial and decadal scale variability. A cold and presumably also wet phase with below-average temperature is reconstructed between the 4th and 7th century AD which is in accordance with the so called European Migration Period marking the transition from the Late Roman Period to the Early Middle Ages. At High Medieval Times above-average temperatures are obvious followed by a temperature decrease. - See more at: http://notrickszone.com/2011/10/02/german-peat-bog -temperature-reconstruction-shows-strong-central-e uropean-variations/#sthash.s5tIWraD.dpuf

http://www.clim-past.net/7/1011/2011/cp-7-1011-20 11.pdf

temperature record for our interglacial from wiki



jpsb, the little ice age ended over a century ago, so the argument that current warming is a recovery from the little ice age is literally out of date.
Quoting 854. PlazaRed:


That comment you posted at 844 surly has to be a joke.



Bingo KEYWORDS HUMOR; POLITICS
869. MahFL
Quoting 862. yonzabam:



I hope that's tongue in cheek. The issue of polar bears going extinct due to melting Arctic ocean ice is codswallop. There will probably be fewer of them, but they are opportunist hunters, and are at home on ice free rocky coasts, where they hunt walrus pups.

They would create mayhem in Antarctica, where seals and penguins have no experience of land predators.

I was under the impression though their main pray was seals and seal pups on ice flows.
the incoming rain in north florida has been pretty much like a cow pissing on a flat rock..
Quoting 369. MaxWeather:



you are the 90th down!


Put me down for 10-2-2
CO2 appears to trail global temperature trends according to every paleo-climatological graph, and even this report refers to a trend dating back centuries (try looking back 16k years BTW... same overall trend). We should deal with change rather than wasting time with measures that can't possibly have an affect.

Since AGW has become a fundamentalist religion this its adherents might respond to this data with dismissive worlds like "heretic", "denier", etc.. However, for those who believe that unverified hypothesis regarding the future do not constitute "settled science" here are some interesting links: http://nipccreport.org/reports/ccr2b/pdf/Summary-f or-Policymakers.pdf ; http://www.co2science.org/ ; http://wattsupwiththat.com/ ; http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB124657655235 589119?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.c om%2Farticle%2FSB124657655235589119.html#printMode
At least the MMGW alarmists should admit that climate change has been going on as long as there has been a climate. Scientists cannot predict the weather two weeks in advance, at least not with any dependable regularity. Trying to attribute our current climate conditions to this so called MMBW is mostly speculation. Science demands proof (hypothesize, test, validate results...) and what is offered as proof does not meet objective scientific rigor. At least admit that, and perhaps then there can be a constructive conversation.