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Ocean Temperatures Reach El Niño Threshold; El Niño Odds Rise Above 65%

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:01 PM GMT on May 12, 2014

For the first time since the fall of 2012, weekly-averaged sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial Pacific have reached the threshold needed for an El Niño event to be declared. By definition, an El Niño episode occurs when SSTs are at least +0.5°C from average for three consecutive months in the region 120°W - 170°W, 5°S - 5°N (called the Niño 3.4 region.) The weekly ENSO update issued by NOAA on May 12, 2014, put ocean temperatures in this Niño 3.4 region for the past seven days at +0.5°C from average. An El Niño event is still not a sure thing, though. We saw similar behavior in the fall of 2012, with SSTs warming up above the +0.5°C threshold, prompting NOAA to issue an El Niño Watch. However, the ocean SSTs were not able to hold for the required three month period, and no El Niño event ended up happening. However, this year the odds appear more favorable. NOAA has issued an El Niño Watch for the summer and fall of 2014, giving a greater than 65% chance that an El Niño event will occur during summer, a boost upwards from their >50% chance given the previous month. The May 8 El Niño discussion from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center noted that "There remains uncertainty as to exactly when El Niño will develop and an even greater uncertainty as to how strong it may become. This uncertainty is related to the inherently lower forecast skill of the models for forecasts made in the spring." None of the El Niño models (updated in mid-April 2014) predict La Niña conditions for peak hurricane season, August-September-October 2014, and 16 of 20 predict El Niño conditions. There is currently not a strong Westerly Wind Burst (WWB) over the equatorial Pacific Ocean helping push warm water eastwards towards South America. There have been three of these WWBs so far in 2014, and if we get one more in the next month or two, that should be enough to push the system into a full-fledged El Niño event.


Figure 1. Departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for May 12, 2014. A plume of warmer-than-average temperatures stretched along the equatorial Pacific from the coast of South America westwards into the Western Pacific, a harbinger of a developing El Niño event. Image credit: NOAA.

El Niño events usually lead to quiet Atlantic hurricane seasons
El Niño conditions tend to make quieter than average Atlantic hurricane seasons, due to an increase in upper-level winds that create strong wind shear over the Tropical Atlantic. The last official El Niño event occurred from summer 2009 - spring 2010, and as expected, the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season was a relatively quiet one, with 11 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. No 2009 hurricanes got their names retired, and there were only six fatalities.

NOAA Launches ENSO Blog
Just in time for the likely arrival of El Niño comes the new NOAA ENSO Blog (ENSO is the acronym for “El Niño - Southern Oscillation”, which is the more scientifically rigorous term for what I typically refer to as “El Niño.") The blog is written by a team of three veteran El Niño scientists:

• Anthony (Tony) Barnston, chief forecaster at the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society
• Emily Becker, a researcher at the NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
• Michelle L’Heureux, who has led the team in charge of routinely producing NOAA/NWS/CPC’s ENSO updates and outlooks since 2006

They have not yet enabled comments, but they expect to do so within the next week or two. I look forward to seeing their expert commentary.

Jeff Masters

Atmospheric Phenomena

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 499. FLwolverine:

You understand that 4 foot rise means the ocean is 4 feet deeper - not that the water comes 4 feet further up on the shore?

And it's more than disagreeing either the President. Among other groups, real estate interests - developers and landowners - don't want building and zoning restrictions on the coast. In North Carolina the real estate and tourism groups have been influential in getting the legislature to deny sea level rise.
im curious..how could the oceans get deeper?...does the ocean floor sink?
Dry weather will continue across the south next week. Possibly with temps a little below normal. Cant complain!


503. MahFL
Quoting 501. LargoFl:

im curious..how could the oceans get deeper?...does the ocean floor sink?


No the ice caps melt more. Also glaciers melt inland and that water reaches the sea from either rivers or precipitation.
Quoting LargoFl:
im curious..how could the oceans get deeper?...does the ocean floor sink?


LOL, No.
The tide comes in. And it comes in. And it keeps coming in. And it never goes out.
Your boat will still float. But the dock will be below the water.

Strange stuff.
Quoting 504. pottery:



LOL, No.
The tide comes in. And it comes in. And it keeps coming in. And it never goes out.
Your boat will still float. But the dock will be below the water.

Strange stuff.
ok ty
New Orleans area with a 5 foot sea rise......................................gone.... ....................................
Quoting LargoFl:
im curious..how could the oceans get deeper?...does the ocean floor sink?


I think he's confused.

But I did read an article the other day about subsidence adding to the problem of sea level rise for many cities around the world.

So you have a combined effect of sea level rise along with subsidence.

Very Interesting El Nino information! It is worth mentioning that the US Gulf Coast has been hit by tropical storms and hurricanes several times during El Nino years. It is not unusual to get a tropical storm or hurricane form in the Gulf of Mexico early in the season, during an El Nino or "slow" year. Hurricane Audrey formed in the Gulf of Mexico during June 1957, and hit the US as a CAT 4!

Examples of Early Formations (June & July) of Gulf Coast tropical storms and hurricanes during an El Nino year and/or "slow" hurricane season:

H. Audrey - June 1957, hit LA/TX
H. Agnes - June 1972, hit NW FL, NE US
H. Bonnie - June 1986 hit upper TX coast
T.S. Alberto - July 1994 hit FL panhandle
H. Danny - July 1997, hit mouth of Miss R, LA; Mobile Bay, AL, NW FL
T.S. Alberto - June 2006 hit big bend FL
T.S. Barry - June 2007 brushed FL W coast


The US Gulf Coast has been hit by hurricanes, several which were CAT 3+ during slow hurricane seasons and/or during El Nino years:

Flossy - 1956 hits mouth of Miss R, LA, & NW FL
Audrey - 1957 devastates SW LA, SE TX, one of the most deadly hurricanes to hit the US
Betsy - 1965 slammed New Orleans, LA, after striking S FL, very large hurricane
Beulah - 1967 pummeled S. Texas, big tornado producer
Carmen - 1974 hits S. LA
Eloise - 1975 slams FL panhandle, SE AL, strengthening up to landfall
Frederic - 1979 clobbers Mobile, AL, and Pascagoula, MS
Alicia - 1983 slams Galveston and Houston, TX
Andrew - 1992 CAT5 hurricane decimates S FL, hits LA as CAT3 (most costly hurricane until Katrina 2005)
Lili - 2002 strikes SW LA, weakens after being CAT4, just before landfall
Ida - 2009 late-season November hurricane brings hurricane force gust to Mouth of Miss R, weakens near AL coast

From the mid 1990s up until last year, we have had busier Atlantic hurricane seasons, with more named storms.

So, we will see what happens this year. Just because the total number of storms forming in the Atlantic basin is forcasted to be lower than we have observed (since 1995), we could still get hit. Hope everyone is ready .... every year.
509. MahFL
Quoting 504. pottery:



LOL, No.
The tide comes in. And it comes in. And it keeps coming in. And it never goes out.
Your boat will still float. But the dock will be below the water.

Strange stuff.


Tides are not sea level rises, sea level rise is a different thing all together. The English Channel eg never used to exist until the seas rose and possibly the land fell a bit too.
Florida used to be bigger too, but the rising sea made it smaller.
not that it matters to those of us alive today..but the earth goes thru these changes..oceans rising,oceans falling....i saw a map on the web...florida is 200 miles wider than today...this again will happen when the oceans recede...we just have the bad luck to live in the time the oceans rise huh....
Quoting LargoFl:
not that it matters to those of us alive today..but the earth goes thru these changes..oceans rising,oceans falling....i saw a map on the web...florida is 200 miles wider than today...this again will happen when the oceans recede...we just have the bad luck to live in the time the oceans rise huh....



Yep very true. Plus the continents are moving since we are all on tectonic plates. The earth is continually changing, and so will the climate.
Terrible model, and far out, but interesting, none the less...


Quoting 504. pottery:



LOL, No.
The tide comes in. And it comes in. And it keeps coming in. And it never goes out.
Your boat will still float. But the dock will be below the water.

Strange stuff.

Then the gulf stream stops working and the seas get hotter and hotter.
Almost all the ocean life dies off, or migrates and then just to make matters worse a massive hurricane comes along feeding of the hot waters and tears your boat from its mooring, along with causing vast waves to surge over the low lying land stripping all the soil away.
Later after observing all this, you die!
514. MahFL
Quoting 510. LargoFl:

we just have the bad luck to live in the time the oceans rise huh....


And the Arctic used to be sub tropical, imagine the global warming arguments the next time that happens !
Here in Fort Myers there will be a 9.5" rise in sea level over the next 100 years (at the rate of the past 30 years - here in Ft. Myers).

30 year sea level rate has been .08" or 8/100" per year here in my area.

Quoting 504. pottery:



LOL, No.
The tide comes in. And it comes in. And it keeps coming in. And it never goes out.
Your boat will still float. But the dock will be below the water.

Strange stuff.

I love it when science is so easily explained..
Navy model predicts one as early as 6 days from now.

138 hours out:
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Here in Fort Myers there will be a 9.5" rise in sea level over the next 100 years (at the rate of the past 30 years).



Buy property on second street, that'll be the new 'oceanfront' :o)
Here are the current sheer levels in the E-Pac today.  Nothing there at the moment in terms of ITCZ activity and sheer levels extremely high.  Looking to be a quiet start to the E-Pac season on May 15th:


Quoting StormWx:


Buy property on second street, that'll be the new 'oceanfront' :o)


Yeah, unfortunately it would still take a few hundred years to get there (seeing that its several feet above sea level just past the dune line).

I live a 21ft above sea level and I calculated it would take a few thousand years before I'd have beach front property.

But this all depends on sea level rise continuing at its current rate.
Quoting LargoFl:
im curious..how could the oceans get deeper?...does the ocean floor sink?
I hope you're being facetious,Largo. Think about filling a bathtub. Does the bottom of the bathtub sink?
IT'S COMING!



2 DAYS!

Could we see this in the EPAC instead of the atlantic?!



Probably not.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


What a troll you are on here. Be productive will you or go back to you weather cellar.

Good morning, Scott. Why not just use your ignore button for people who do nothing but try to get your goat? It saves you from a stroke and doesn't give them what they want - attention.
Gustav was a nasty system...



Gustav landfalling with Hannah close behind.
Quoting Torito:
IT'S COMING!



2 DAYS!

Could we see this in the EPAC instead of the atlantic?!



Probably not.

LOL. Torito, you're not desperate for some kind of storm to track are you? :-)
Quoting 506. LargoFl:

New Orleans area with a 5 foot sea rise......................................gone.... ....................................

The only thing which is going to slow down the sea level rise, is the simple fact that as the sea rises, it will need more water input to cover any given area, as the land which it is covering has to be added to the area of the seas.
Looking around, even with limited global geographic knowledge, its amazing how much land is only just above sea level.
Bangladesh and the Maldives are good examples and here in southern Spain the Guadalquivir river estuary has the Donada wetlands one of the largest wildlife parks in Europe. 40 miles or so up the river is Seville, which is only about 24 feet or 8 meters above present sea level.
Then of course there is Gibraltar, London and Amsterdam to name a few of the hundreds of cities which cant be protected or moved.
Quoting 525. sar2401:

LOL. Torito, you're not desperate for some kind of storm to track are you? :-)


TBH im not expecting much at all this year in terms of excitement.. maybe a few home grown systems in the ATL but probably not much more than that... EPAC, however.. I havent been following that so much.
From CBC News:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/huge-antarctic- ice-sheet-collapsing-1.2639989
EPAC:


ATLANTIC:
Quoting LargoFl:


That map shows you where there will be beach front property in about 3000 years (actually around 2500 years based on current sea level rise rates).


Star Wars Episode 7 - Filming Begins This Week in Abu Dhabi
El-Nino is here now bubba


well then by that criteria....2012 must have been an el nino year....

well...except that california was in a drought...the hurricane season was extremely active...the india monsoon season was just slightly below average...and in australia...rather than have drought conditions they announced an end to their current drought.....

you have to wonder why the three month criteria has to be met before an el nino is declared...

simple answer is...it's more about the affects than the current conditions...and to have the affects that a nino produces...the conditions must be there for a considerable amount of time
The next 5-7 day average will likely be below the 0.5C threshold. El Nino will come later this year.

if this week continues as it stands in the 3.4 sector....it will make a middle of june announcement highly unlikely...
Quoting 533. ricderr:



and to have the affects that a nino produces...the conditions must be there for a considerable amount of time


Like, say, an ESPI of 1.72? It didn't even reach half that in 2012.
Quoting 531. Sfloridacat5:



That map shows you where there will be beach front property in about 3000 years (actually around 2500 years based on current sea level rise rates).
yes i seriously doubt any of us alive today will see any horrendous sea level rises,our grand children and their children might though...
Quoting 515. Sfloridacat5:

Here in Fort Myers there will be a 9.5" rise in sea level over the next 100 years (at the rate of the past 30 years - here in Ft. Myers).

30 year sea level rate has been .08" or 8/100" per year here in my area.




In Fort Myers, the sea is currently rising at a rate of 0.79 feet--or about 9.5 inches--per 100 years, or about 2.8 inches per 30 years. And of course, future sea level rise will in no way continue at the same rate; it will, rather, continue to bend upward--that is, a curve, not a straight line.
Quoting 520. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, unfortunately it would still take a few hundred years to get there (seeing that its several feet above sea level just past the dune line).

I live a 21ft above sea level and I calculated it would take a few thousand years before I'd have beach front property.

But this all depends on sea level rise continuing at its current rate.
yes my home is 48 feet above sea level,so im not worried,but those having homes right on the shoreline might be in some trouble as the years go by....im more worried about florida's water supply being invaded with salt water...
Quoting LargoFl:
yes i seriously doubt any of us alive today will see any horrendous sea level rises,our grand children and their children might though...


Hopefully we (humans) fix the issues long before it gets to that point.
In addition, hopefully science finds a way to stop or reverse the major problems with new inventions (no emission vehicles, clean power - using solar energy, etc).

For all we know, we could be in an Ice Age 2000+ years from now.
Also if we haven't destroyed the world through Global Wars it will also be suprising.
Like, say, an ESPI of 1.72? It didn't even reach half that in 2012.

true....and i don't compare this event to 2012....only in the aspect that just as you could not call 2012 an el nino can you call one today...i believe that we'll see nino declared as early as the latter third of june or as late as the middle of august...but to declare it today is premature
The sea level rise scenarios we are dealing with follow along with the US Army Corps and pretty closely with IPCC's conservative, moderate, and a midrange high scenario.
The conservative profiles are just a linear extension of the rate of sea level rise as observed today. So that uncomplicated method is included in the resiliency planning mix.
If the bottom of a bathtub did sink, would it stop being a tub
...and start being a sink?
Quoting 539. Sfloridacat5:



Hopefully we (humans) fix the issues long before it gets to that point.
In addition, hopefully science finds a way to stop or reverse the major problems with new inventions (no emission vehicles, clean power - using solar energy, etc).

For all we know, we could be in an Ice Age 2000+ years from now.
Also if we haven't destroyed the world through Global Wars it will also be suprising.


Even if the world could magically switch to zero emissions today (a physical, economic, financial, and political impossibility), the warming already "built in" to the system pretty much ensures that we'll continue heating for centuries to come. And given that science has combined with human avarice to put us in this place, I wouldn't hold out hope for any technological fixes.

I'm afraid that, atmospherically-speaking,Pandora's box has been cracked open. And there'll be no jamming things back inside...

(And it's true that we may be in an ice age 2,000 years from now. A few massive supervolcano eruptions could bring that about, or a collision with a several-miles-wide asteroid or comet, or global thermonuclear war. But while we can't do much if anything about any of those, we saw GW coming. What's our excuse?)


If the bottom of a bathtub did sink, would it stop being a tub?

it becomes a walk in tub
Quoting 540. ricderr:

Like, say, an ESPI of 1.72? It didn't even reach half that in 2012.

true....and i don't compare this event to 2012....only in the aspect that just as you could not call 2012 an el nino can you call one today...i believe that we'll see nino declared as early as the latter third of june or as late as the middle of august...but to declare it today is premature


We are at El-Nino threshold now and we are continuing see this building El-Nino get stronger as each week passes. Some just don't like that including yourself because you want an active hurricane season.

Sorry man next year will be active for you hurricane wise

This is just insane for early in May to see El-Nino building this fast.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


We are at El-Nino threshold now and we are continuing see this building El-Nino get stronger as each week passes. Some just don't like that including yourself because you want an active hurricane season.

Sorry man next year will be active for you hurricane wise


Ever think of working for NHC? You seem to know exactly what will happen this year during hurricane season, and next season as well. You would be very valuable to them and would help them with their forecasting numbers. Where did you get your crystal ball?
Quoting LargoFl:
yes i seriously doubt any of us alive today will see any horrendous sea level rises,our grand children and their children might though...


Yep, future generations will see higher sea levels. And considering so many live on the coast, it'll be a big shock to many.
We are at El-Nino threshold now and we are continuing see this building El-Nino get stronger as each week passes. Some just don't like that including yourself because you want an active hurricane season.

see scott.."threshold"...much better stated.....and correct too.....i know you can do it...i just think you get a kick out of making outlandish statements

as to active hurricane seasons....active or non active..the same dynamics of watching and collecting data for formation and tracts is there regardless of formation or strength...plus....i'm still rooting for a no hurricane atlantic season.......we had a chance last year...for my personal interest...an active epac season gives a higher chance of an above average monsoon season here in el paso.....
Quoting 546. StormWx:



Ever think of working for NHC? You seem to know exactly what will happen this year during hurricane season, and next season as well. You would be very valuable to them and would help them with their forecasting numbers. Where did you get your crystal ball?


8 to 11 storms is all were likely going to squeeze out this year with strong El-Nino by the end of hurricane season . I can see some want an hype hurricane season. Are you hyping again StormWx? Active hurricane season yes if your in the E-Pac so maybe we can ship you off to Mexico with Ric with 2 scooters.
Quoting 549. StormTrackerScott:



8 to 11 storms is all were likely going to squeeze out this year with strong El-Nino by the end of hurricane season . I can see some want an hype hurricane season. Are you hyping again StormWx? Active hurricane season yes if your in the E-Pac so maybe we can ship you off to Mexico with Ric with 2 scooters.



LOL the ending part was two funny
Quoting 550. Tazmanian:



LOL the ending part was two funny


Make it a 2-seater with a cam corder and that will give this site excitement for the summer.
Are you hyping again StormWx?


asked by the reigning king of hype...LOL
Quoting 510. LargoFl:

not that it matters to those of us alive today..but the earth goes thru these changes..oceans rising,oceans falling....i saw a map on the web...florida is 200 miles wider than today...this again will happen when the oceans recede...we just have the bad luck to live in the time the oceans rise huh....
Yes, it's just like if you have a pistol in your hand and you point it at your head and pull the trigger. Suppose there is a bullet in the chamber and it kills you -- that's your bad luck.
Make it a 2-seater with a cam corder and that will give this site excitement for the summer


only if i get to drive
They see me rollin', they hatin patjrollin
And tryin to catch me ridin dirty




Quoting 555. ricderr:

They see me rollin', they hatin patjrollin
And tryin to catch me ridin dirty

Read more: Chamillionaire - Ridin Lyrics | MetroLyrics





LOL! Nice..I didn't know you had it in you Ric. That's my style there.
I want my scooter on 12's with gold rims and system on the back.
Quoting 557. StormTrackerScott:
I want my scooter on 12's with gold rims and system on the back.


But we can't all go to Mexico on these scooters. Who will be updating the blogs?
Quoting 558. rmbjoe1954:



But we can't all go to Mexico on these scooters. Who will be updating the blogs?


I don't know Ric, StormWx, and myself are basically the only one's who post on here in the AM.
But we can't all go to Mexico on these scooters. Who will be updating the blogs?

dude....i can go to mexico after breakfast and be back for brunch.....

here's a picture of juarez....just on the mexican border of el paso...the pic is taken from el paso.....i've taken family and friends to this very spot...it makes you say thank you god i was born on this side of the fence.....

Quoting 559. StormTrackerScott:


I don't know Ric, StormWx, and myself are basically the only one's who post on here in the AM.


Then I will volunteer to stay behind, languishing in El Nino dominated hot summer in St. Lucie County, and create an interim blog until you come back to your rightful place on this blog.
562. MahFL
Quoting 539. Sfloridacat5:



Hopefully we (humans) fix the issues ...


How can any issues be fixed when the global population is still rising ? More people = more CO2 production.
Quoting 537. Neapolitan:



In Fort Myers, the sea is currently rising at a rate of 0.79 feet--or about 9.5 inches--per 100 years, or about 2.8 inches per 30 years. And of course, future sea level rise will in no way continue at the same rate; it will, rather, continue to bend upward--that is, a curve, not a straight line.
Quoting 542. biff4ugo:

If the bottom of a bathtub did sink, would it stop being a tub?

would it be a half tub or a hole tub?
565. bwi
Quoting 452. BaltimoreBrian:

One of the most important glaciology papers ever written. I think it it the most important.

West Antarctic ice sheet and CO2 greenhouse effect: a threat of disaster
(Received August 1, 1977, accepted November 3, 1977, published January 26, 1978)


Thanks so much for posting this link -- that's a rather amazing article, quite accessible to the non scientist. Amazing how much was known in 1977 -- 35+ years ago! -- that has come to pass. Dr. Master posted a lecture a while back from a climate scientist who said that the landforms grounding the WAIS would likely prevent a catastrophic sudden collapse. The new papers being release this week indicate otherwise it seems. We'll see whether the consensus opinion is modified by the new results -- my sense it that it probably will be, which means that prediction of sea level rise over the next century will probably be revised upward.
566. MahFL
Quoting 553. CaneFreeCR:

Yes, it's just like if you have a pistol in your hand and you point it at your head and pull the trigger. Suppose there is a bullet in the chamber and it kills you -- that's your bad luck.


But people living 200 feet above sea level have very little to worry about, cept maybe some new neighbors with well used surfboards....
567. etxwx
We've had over 4 inches of rain so far from this system and we were barely in the eastern edge. I don't think the areas east of Jasper TX got much. It's letting up now. I sure am grateful for the rain - the ponds are full again!


Swamped streets greet Houston-area commuters (with video embedded)

And KTRE in Lufkin TX reports a few road closures due to high water and trees across road.
568. MahFL
Quoting 537. Neapolitan:



In Fort Myers, the sea is currently rising at a rate of 0.79 feet--or about 9.5 inches--per 100 years, or about 2.8 inches per 30 years. And of course, future sea level rise will in no way continue at the same rate; it will, rather, continue to bend upward--that is, a curve, not a straight line.


Your saying the rate of increase will get faster ?
Quoting 555. ricderr:

They see me rollin', they hatin patjrollin
And tryin to catch me ridin dirty







Put some dubs on it...
Quoting 566. MahFL:



But people living 200 feet above sea level have very little to worry about, cept maybe some new neighbors with well used surfboards....

Yes, we in Holland rest assured that what's left of Germany by the time will happily take care of 17 million Dutch refugees (never mind the Bangladeshi).
Quoting 568. MahFL:



Your saying the rate of increase will get faster ?


... much faster.
572. etxwx
This looks like a fun commute...

Photo By Cody Duty/Houston Chronicle
Drivers face high water on I-45 northbound after heavy rain hit Houston Tuesday morning.
Put some dubs on it...



hey...if heff can rock the scooter...so can i

I apologize if this has already been posted.

Ice melt in part of Antarctica 'appears unstoppable,' NASA says
By Jason Hanna, CNN
updated 6:57 AM EDT, Tue May 13, 2014

(CNN) -- The complete melting of a major section of west Antarctica's ice sheet appears inevitable, and the process could lead to higher end-of-century global sea levels than previously anticipated, researchers said Monday.

Warm ocean currents and geographic peculiarities helped kick off a chain reaction at the Amundsen Sea-area glaciers, melting them faster than previously realized and pushing them "past the point of no return," NASA glaciologist Eric Rignot told reporters by phone Monday.

The glacial retreat there "appears unstoppable," said Rignot, lead author of a joint NASA-University of California Irvine paper that used 40 years of satellite data and aircraft studies.

NASA says the region has enough ice to raise global sea levels by 4 feet. Estimated conservatively, it still could take several centuries for that portion to melt into the ocean, Rignot said.

But the melting could have an impact this century, said Sridhar Anandakrishnan, geosciences professor at Pennsylvania State University.

The United Nations' most recent climate change report estimates sea levels could rise from about 1 foot to 3 feet by 2100, levels that could displace tens of millions of people from coastal areas around the world.

Yet that estimate largely didn't take into account melting from west Antarctica, because few studies for that area had been completed, Anandakrishnan said.

"So as this paper and others come out, the (U.N.) numbers for 2100 will almost certainly" lean closer to 3 feet, he said.

Why scientists think it's unstoppable

The rate at which the area's ice is melting has increased 77% since 1973, and the reasons are several, researchers said.

The ice sheet there, unlike that in much of east Antarctica, is attached to a bed below sea level. That means ocean currents can deliver warm water at glaciers' base, or grounding lines -- places where the ice attaches to the bed, NASA said.

The heat makes the grounding line retreat inland, leaving a less massive ice shelf above. When ice shelves lose mass, they can't hold back inland glaciers from flowing toward the sea. Glaciers then flow faster and become thin as a result, and this thinning is conducive to more grounding-line retreat, NASA said.

"The system (becomes) a chain reaction that is unstoppable, (with) every process of retreat feeding the next one," Rignot said.

A hill or a mountain behind the grounding line would slow this retreat. But the beds behind nearly all the Amundsen Sea glaciers slope downward, researchers said.

Rignot said he believes global warming and a depletion of the Earth's ozone layer is partly to blame, saying they have changed the winds in the area, causing more warm water to be invected toward the glaciers.

The findings don't clash with news that Antarctic sea ice recently hit record levels, Rignot and Anandakrishnan said. They said sea ice forms and melts quickly, while glaciers are subject to longer-term changes. And the same winds that stir subsurface heat toward the base of Antarctic ice shelf also can expand sea ice cover, Rignot said.

Not a first

Such a melting would be uncommon, but not necessarily unprecedented, Anandakrishnan said. Evidence shows that west Antarctica retained an ice sheet during the last few 100,000-year cycles of glacial formation and retreat, he said.

But evidence also suggests the entire west Antarctica ice sheet might have melted 500,000 to 600,000 years ago, Anandakrishnan said.

The six Amundsen Sea glaciers are just a portion of the entire west Antarctic ice sheet. Though much of the other west Antarctic sections are grounded below sea level, the Amundsen Sea area is more vulnerable, in part because it has fewer hills behind the leading edges and because the shape of the sea floor helps usher more warm water to the base, NASA said.

Anandakrishnan said it was possible that the melting in the Amundsen Sea area could destabilize other ice sheets. The entire west Antarctic ice sheet has enough ice to raise the global sea level by about 16 feet, NASA said.

Link
Drivers face high water on I-45 northbound after heavy rain hit Houston Tuesday morning.

that section was filled to the brim after ike hit
Quoting 543. Neapolitan:



Even if the world could magically switch to zero emissions today (a physical, economic, financial, and political impossibility), the warming already "built in" to the system pretty much ensures that we'll continue heating for centuries to come. And given that science has combined with human avarice to put us in this place, I wouldn't hold out hope for any technological fixes.

I'm afraid that, atmospherically-speaking,Pandora's box has been cracked open. And there'll be no jamming things back inside...

(And it's true that we may be in an ice age 2,000 years from now. A few massive supervolcano eruptions could bring that about, or a collision with a several-miles-wide asteroid or comet, or global thermonuclear war. But while we can't do much if anything about any of those, we saw GW coming. What's our excuse?)




Hmmm, scientists seem to agree that isn't too late to make a change, what gives?
577. MahFL
Quoting 574. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I apologize if this has already been posted.

Estimated conservatively, it still could take several centuries for that portion to melt into the ocean, Rignot said


Please repost this article 300 years from now. it's not relevant for this decade.
Quoting 577. MahFL:



Please repost this article 300 years from now. it's not relevant for this decade.
That's very selfish of you.
A comment from the article I posted in #574

makemoney11 nightwriter %u2022 12 hours ago
I'm a young Republican who firmly believes climate change is real and is changing our planet, and that we are a major contributor to it. I think more people my age are coming around to that and do not blindly follow some theistic approach to all of the world's issues. Republicans (let's admit, that's mostly who the deniers are) who deny climate change are an embarrassment to the party. Tea Party is not Republican.

There has been rumors that the Republican party will fold and a new party will emerge.
Nino 1+2 continues its meteoric rise.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Are you hyping again StormWx?


LOL bubba I havent even given an official forecast yet, but i will only be giving one out for this year. As for 2015 who knows. I do think you are due for a hit at your home in Wekiva though, the models seem bias towards you :o)
Quoting 580. TimSoCal:

Nino 1+2 continues its meteoric rise.






and whats been going on at nino 1 and 2 will move W in two the other nino and it will soon start happening there has well in fac i noted all nino ares are starting too go up
Quoting 576. Jedkins01:



Hmmm, scientists seem to agree that isn't too late to make a change, what gives?
It's never too late to do anything or make a change to your lifestyle, stalling won't help.
Quoting 580. TimSoCal: Nino 1+2 continues its meteoric rise.

This Texan is overjoyed with this... we can't depend on ATL systems for rain anymore, what
with our semi-permanent ridging year after year. Almost all the moisture we've had for more
than a year was donated by EPAC systems. Looks like two are about to start forming now,
according to models and actual sat.
Just for the record and quoting a Houstonian friend..."Houston floods when a mouse takes a wiz." Those sunken highways may be wonderful for sound abatement but I think the city engineers forgot that water flows downhill AND into ditch.
Quoting 570. cRRKampen:


Yes, we in Holland rest assured that what's left of Germany by the time will happily take care of 17 million Dutch refugees (never mind the Bangladeshi).


I understand the Dutch have a little experience with sea level over the past few centuries. :)
Quoting 560. ricderr:

But we can't all go to Mexico on these scooters. Who will be updating the blogs?

dude....i can go to mexico after breakfast and be back for brunch.....

here's a picture of juarez....just on the mexican border of el paso...the pic is taken from el paso.....i've taken family and friends to this very spot...it makes you say thank you god i was born on this side of the fence.....




You are a brave person for doing that and I agree... Then again, I don't like going anywhere I can't be armed.
Nino 1&2 is on one heck of a rise. Nearing 1.4C with lots of 4C's near South America. It seems like the meat of this Kelvin Wave is surfacing now near South America. Next on the list is Nino 3 & Nino 3.4 for a dramitic rise in the coming days as this wave sloshes back to the west.

This is going to be on heck of a strong El-Nino if this is what the enso regions look like the second week of May.

Quoting 573. ricderr:

Put some dubs on it...



hey...if heff can rock the scooter...so can i




More like you are jealous he is rocking what is sitting next to him in another scooter...

Boy does he look mad in that photo...
Quoting 582. Tazmanian:





and whats been going on at nino 1 and 2 will move W in two the other nino and it will soon start happening there has well in fac i noted all nino ares are starting too go up


Hey Taz. Just out of curiosity, how do you decide which incorrect homonym of "to" to use in your comments? Most of the time you use "two" but then you mix things up once in a while and drop a "too" in there. I haven't been able to pick up a pattern yet.
If the Jet Stream is displaced further west over the Great Lakes we may have a steering pattern like 2004.





Hi Scott, I do believe their will be an El-Nino this year and I hope it will only be a weak to moderate one. I don't want to see all the death and destruction that a super nino could cause. As far as hurricanes go, how can you project the amount of storms this year and in 2915? Not even the experts with PHD's can. An El-Nino or La Nina are but one component of a hurricane season. One last thing what is your PHD in?


this picture is from Abu Dhabi and from Star Wars Episode 7!! Star Wars Episode 7 - Filming Begins This Week in Abu Dhabi....the temp was 104F THIS MORNING!
Quoting 591. CarlitosAtun:



Hey Taz. Just out of curiosity, how do you decide which incorrect homonym of "to" to use in your comments? Most of the time you use "two" but then you mix things up once in a while and drop a "too" in there. I haven't been able to pick up a pattern yet.





How about you don't worry about it and this mine your own bees waxes
Quoting 593. NativeSun:
Hi Scott, I do believe their will be an El-Nino this year and I hope it will only be a weak to moderate one. I don't want to see all the death and destruction that a super nino could cause. As far as hurricanes go, how can you project the amount of storms this year and in 2915? Not even the experts with PHD's can. An El-Nino or La Nina are but one component of a hurricane season. One last thing what is your PHD in?


Well I wont be here in 2915 so I couldn't tell you.
597. MahFL
I see a touch of cyclonic turning in the Bahamas.

Quoting 531. Sfloridacat5:



That map shows you where there will be beach front property in about 3000 years (actually around 2500 years based on current sea level rise rates).

Don't count on sea level rise rates remaining the same. Over the 20th Century the rate tripled from about 1 mm/year in 1900 to over 3 mm/year in 2000. There is no reason to think that it won't be greater as time goes along.
Quoting 576. Jedkins01:



Hmmm, scientists seem to agree that isn't too late to make a change, what gives?

It's too late to stop many serious effects from global warming. But it's not too late to stop making even worse than it will be if we start doing something about it now.
Quoting 506. LargoFl:

New Orleans area with a 5 foot sea rise......................................gone.... ....................................
No mas Bon Temps :(
Quoting 597. MahFL: I see a touch of cyclonic turning in the Bahamas.

Been watchin that, too.
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
A comment from the article I posted in #574

makemoney11 nightwriter %u2022 12 hours ago
I'm a young Republican who firmly believes climate change is real and is changing our planet, and that we are a major contributor to it. I think more people my age are coming around to that and do not blindly follow some theistic approach to all of the world's issues. Republicans (let's admit, that's mostly who the deniers are) who deny climate change are an embarrassment to the party. Tea Party is not Republican.

There has been rumors that the Republican party will fold and a new party will emerge.

Rumors from what source, exactly? The young Republican person quoted apparently believes there are far more Republicans than those who identify as such, and believes the Tea Party has grown by leaps and bounds.Depending on what poll you read, the amount of people self-identifying as Republican or Democrat is about about equal, at ~30%. People who self-identify with the Tea Party are at an all time low (~8%) compared to ~24% in 2010. The largest group of voters self-identify as independents (~38%). If I was in charge of trying to turn public opinion, I wouldn't waste time on Republicans or Democrats, since many of those people are already firm in their convictions. So-called independents are the group I'd try to influence.

Most alarmingly, the number of people that responded they "didn't know" when asked if climate change was being caused by humans previously decreased by ~6% while those that said they don't believe it rose by the same amount...and this was after the IPCC report came out in September. In other words, there was negative correlation with the release of yet more scientific data and the number of people who believed it. This emphasizes the view I've stated multiple times - scientists are doing a lousy job communicating with non-scientists. It's easy to blame media outlets like Fox but that doesn't get us anywhere. There has to be a more understandable way to communicate with the average person how this mountain of scientific data actually impacts them and their children and their children's children. There must be media consultants and communication experts on the AGW side that can help frame the message better. Since most of the media is supposedly socialist pinko scum, why aren't we using them to help get the message of what science predicts across? We are on the wrong path here, and something needs to change if we are to arrive at consensus on this issue.

Link
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAY 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

.GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF OF THE TEXAS COAST INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
MOVE INTO THE FAR SW GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE WED. WINDS WILL
FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND BRING A LATE-SEASON GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT STARTING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ONE OF THE LATEST GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALES ON RECORD.
WINDS WILL REACH 40 KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...AND MAY
EVEN REACH 45 KT LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI. WINDS SHOULD FINALLY
DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE AROUND SATURDAY MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 05N80W TO 09N95W TO
09N108W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N108W TO 05N135W THROUGH
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF
TROUGH BETWEEN 105W AND 115W.

...DISCUSSION...

A BLOCKING RIDGE EXTENDS N OF 28N ALONG 125W...INHIBITING THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A SHARP DEEP LAYER TROUGH ALONG 150W AND
ALLOWING AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL JUST WEST OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE SURFACE HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID/UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA...MAINTAINING GENERALLY MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW SOUTH OF
15N AND WEST OF 115W. SOUTHERN STREAM JET DYNAMICS ARE
MAINTAINING WEAK SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 105W AND 115W...BUT OVERALL CONVECTION IS LIMITED BY
WEAK LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE.

FARTHER EAST A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH NORTH OF 10N ALONG 91W. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF THIS FEATURE.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A RECENT ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED
ONLY MODERATE TO NW FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA
CONTINUES TO BUILD...BUT IS NOT CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WHICH IS THE FAVORED AREA TO PROMOTE STRONG FLOW IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. THE HIGH PRES IS SLIGHTLY TO THE NE...OVER WYOMING.
NONETHELESS...IT WILL SHIFT SOUTH TODAY AND STILL PRESENT AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONGER FLOW IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATER
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

might be some supercell stoms in alabama tomorrow.......................................... ............................
Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion


000
AXNT20 KNHC 131112
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...FROM 20N TO 26N TO THE WEST OF 96W. EXPECT ALSO SEA
HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FEET. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE ALONG
30N94W TO 26N96W TO 21N97W. EXPECT ALSO NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST
OF THE FRONT.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

AN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 10N20W TO 4N22W MOVING
WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 4N TO 14N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 24W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS IN AFRICA. IT IS BEING BROKEN UP BY
THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 2N23W...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR ALONG 29W...TO 2S37W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 4N TO 2S BETWEEN 2E AND 7W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 3N18W 2N27W 2N34W. NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 1N TO 1S BETWEEN 45W
AND 48W IN THE COASTAL WATERS/COASTAL PLAINS OF BRAZIL...AND
FROM 2S TO 7S BETWEEN 30W AND 36W OFF THE COAST OF BRAZIL.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO...ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...BEYOND THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.A. IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT IS SWEEPING ACROSS TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 25N92W 18N93W.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN COVERING TEXAS
TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...HAS BEEN APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY...TO THE EAST OF 90W. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOVING
EASTWARD TO 90W...MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREAS OF CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
FLORIDA. SOME OF THIS WIND FLOW HAS BEEN RELATED TO A 70W/71W
ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 33N42W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 32N53W...TO A 1024 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N66W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...INTO SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
STATIONS...KOPM...KBBF...KBQX...KIKT...AND KVOA. A MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
STATIONS...KMZG...KVOA. A VISIBILITY OF 2 TO 3 MILES WITH FOG IS
BEING REPORTED AT THE STATION KBBF. A VISIBILITY OF 1 TO 2 MILES
WITH FOG IS BEING REPORTED AT KBQX.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN WITH THUNDER ARE BEING
REPORTED IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TEXAS AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF LOUISIANA. THE VISIBILITY IN PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI
HAS BECOME 3 MILES WITH FOG...AFTER SEVERAL SUCCESSIVE REPORTS
OF 1 TO 2 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS
COVER COASTAL ALABAMA. THE VISIBILITY IS ONE MILE OR LESS WITH
FOG AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION WHITING FIELD NEAR MILTON AND IN
CRESTVIEW IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING
IS AT FORT MYERS AND NAPLES...AND AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN
KEY WEST.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 25N92W TO 18N93W. EXPECT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE
SOUTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH TO 88W. EXPECT ALSO EAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF
25N TO THE EAST OF 85W...INCLUDING IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING
HISPANIOLA...AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N49W...TO 26N58W 23N65W...ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE...TO 15N69W...INTO NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25N79W OFF THE COAST OF
ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA...TO 20N80W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 10N60W 13N67W 15N77W
16N85W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF
60W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
13/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.25 IN
GUADELOUPE. THE 24-HOUR TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 12/1200
UTC WERE 0.19 FOR GUADELOUPE AND MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA...0.11
FOR SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...AND 0.06 IN ST. THOMAS IN THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AREAS OF SCATTERED TO
BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...IN SURFACE TRADE WIND FLOW.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO AND PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND OTHER
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CROSS HISPANIOLA AT 250 MB. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB
SHOWS THAT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA...WITH A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO THE BAHAMAS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700
MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA...
WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO
THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 85W. EXPECT ALSO NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 11N TO
13N BETWEEN 71W AND 75W.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N24W TO 25N27W TO 15N32W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER
AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY...TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 23W AND 40W. A 1019 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N32W. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES AWAY
FROM THE LOW CENTER...TO 30N30W 28N30W 27N33W 30N35W 32N35W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 30W AND
40W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 33N42W...TO 32N53W...TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 32N66W...INTO SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...TO
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 26N77W TO 22N79W.
EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8
TO 9 FEET TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...TO THE SOUTH 27N TO THE
WEST OF 72W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
Quoting 584. redwagon:

Quoting 580. TimSoCal: Nino 1+2 continues its meteoric rise.

This Texan is overjoyed with this... we can't depend on ATL systems for rain anymore, what
with our semi-permanent ridging year after year. Almost all the moisture we've had for more
than a year was donated by EPAC systems. Looks like two are about to start forming now,
according to models and actual sat.


I'll drink to that and I concur about the EPAC adding to our precip. Pretty much all rain in 2012-2013 came from the pacific. BTW I picked up about 3.5" last night and this morning. My lawn was about 2 shades greener when I left for work this morning. The thunder last night was insane and I thought the pictures on the wall were going to fly off.
Quoting Tazmanian:





How about you don't worry about it and this mine your own bees waxes

Way to go, Taz. :):))

Some cloud around here this morning, helping to raise the humidity to a whopping 49% at present.

Heat index 93F.

:(:((
I mostly concur with the NHC
Quoting 595. Tazmanian:






How about you don't worry about it and this mine your own bees waxes


I wasn't worried about it, just curious. How did you know that I own a bees wax mine?
More chaos is now available in the Earth 2.1 Atmosphere, esp Water Vapor, as the T-Storms, all have greater Water dropping capacity, and these also make for a different Thunder volume as well.

Storms are changing.
Quoting Dakster:


You are a brave person for doing that and I agree... Then again, I don't like going anywhere I can't be armed.

Funny how that works. Once you get used to a certain amount of years with that bulge on your belt or the small of your back, you feel kind of naked without it. The thing is that, since I've been retired, the only time I've taken my weapon from its holster (other than range time or cleaning it) is when I thought someone was trying to break down the door to the house. Turned out it was the neighbor's dog. He's a very big dog though. And no, I didn't shoot him, although I had a brief moment when the idea was appealing. :-)
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Well I wont be here in 2915 so I couldn't tell you.


Well bubba, if you can predict this year and next year, why not 2915? That'll probably be an El Nino year :o)
Quoting 607. calkevin77: I'll drink to that

Be here at 5pm and we will! I'm watching the activity in the EPAC now.. looks promising.
Think it was the NAM had two systems forming within the week. And how about this Paradise
forecast for the next 7 days? Drink to that, too!
2 for Tuesday, # 1

For ya Life, for ya Life'

Heard a cry for mercy, In the city of the damned
Oh oh babe, damned. Down in the pits you go no lower
The next stop's underground. Oh, hello underground.
Wine and roses ain't quite over, fate deals a losing hand
And I said: didn't mean to... did not mean to fail
You didn't plan it, you over-ran it
Quoting 602. sar2401:


Rumors from what source, exactly? The young Republican person quoted apparently believes there are far more Republicans than those who identify as such, and believes the Tea Party has grown by leaps and bounds.Depending on what poll you read, the amount of people self-identifying as Republican or Democrat is about about equal, at ~30%. People who self-identify with the Tea Party are at an all time low (~8%) compared to ~24% in 2010. The largest group of voters self-identify as independents (~38%). If I was in charge of trying to turn public opinion, I wouldn't waste time on Republicans or Democrats, since many of those people are already firm in their convictions. So-called independents are the group I'd try to influence.

Most alarmingly, the number of people that responded they "didn't know" when asked if climate change was being caused by humans previously decreased by ~6% while those that said they don't believe it rose by the same amount...and this was after the IPCC report came out in September. In other words, there was negative correlation with the release of yet more scientific data and the number of people who believed it. This emphasizes the view I've stated multiple times - scientists are doing a lousy job communicating with non-scientists. It's easy to blame media outlets like Fox but that doesn't get us anywhere. There has to be a more understandable way to communicate with the average person how this mountain of scientific data actually impacts them and their children and their children's children. There must be media consultants and communication experts on the AGW side that can help frame the message better. Since most of the media is supposedly socialist pinko scum, why aren't we using them to help get the message of what science predicts across? We are on the wrong path here, and something needs to change if we are to arrive at consensus on this issue.

Link
I don't think that is the problem, there are good climate scientist out there trying to reach out to the public, some work for NASA and NOAA and others are on the panel of the IPCC, the problem is people are in denial about the changes that are going on around them and what you say in one ear passes through the other, I compare to people who don't evacuate when a major hurricane is approaching. They just don't listen and want to form their own beliefs and opinions, science is not based off of those things. It has been tested time and time again through observations and experiments, simple things such as bringing back core samples and putting them in laboratories to see what kind of changes they undergo when set under different conditions such as temperatures. Even just taking thermometers and placing them in cold places to see how the temperature is changing over time. We know CO2 levels continue to increase because of human output, for every time we burn fossil fuels it increases the output more. It is really not that hard for a rational person who can critically think to see that, sar. I'm really surprised this is still a problem. Maybe read subject textbooks such as Environmental Science and even better Physics and Chemistry.
Quoting CarlitosAtun:


I wasn't worried about it, just curious. How did you know that I own a bees wax mine?

Just give it up. You can't win.
Quoting CarlitosAtun:


I wasn't worried about it, just curious. How did you know that I own a bees wax mine?

WUMail to you.
Quoting 614. redwagon:

Quoting 607. calkevin77: I'll drink to that

Be here at 5pm and we will! I'm watching the activity in the EPAC now.. looks promising.
Think it was the NAM had two systems forming within the week. And how about this Paradise
forecast for the next 7 days? Drink to that, too!


Crazy how cool it is now. Its 57 degrees out right now with highs only expected in the 60s today. 30 degrees cooler than just a couple of days ago. Funny thing is, I have my jacket in the back of my car and just the other day I was going to put it away for the season. I probably still don't need it but the fact I've had to consider it is awesome. 70s and 80s for the rest of the week. This has been a great May :)
Quoting 611. Patrap:

More chaos is now available in the Earth 2.1 Atmosphere, esp Water Vapor, as the T-Storms, all have greater Water dropping capacity, and these also make for a different Thunder volume as well.

Storms are changing.


2.1? Was there another upgrade pushed out? I am still running Atmo 2.0, with only 10% more WV.

The thunder already really scares my pups, so I can't imagine how bad things might get.
Quoting 609. FBMinFL:

I mostly concur with the NHC
Yes, me too they are the official forecasting agency for tropical systems in the Atlantic and EPAC. :)

Link
On April 28, 2014, a powerful tornado passed through Louisville, Mississippi. The ISS SERVIR Environmental Research and Visualization System (ISERV) on the International Space Station captured this photograph showing damaged vegetation and debris left behind by the storm. ISERV acquired the image on May 4, 2014.

The tornado left a scar 58 kilometers (36 miles) long and up to 1.3 kilometers (0.8 miles) wide. With winds that topped 297 kilometers (185 miles), the storm was rated an EF4 on the enhanced Fujita scale. Ten residents of Winston County died as a result of the storm.
Quoting 620. FBMinFL:



2.1? Was there another upgrade pushed out? I am still running Atmo 2.0, with only 10% more WV.

The thunder already really scares my pups, so I can't imagine how bad things might get.


I Kicked it up a notch to .1 as I been saying for 7 years here that the Climate Models have always underplayed the obs.

: )
Quoting 587. Grothar:



I understand the Dutch have a little experience with sea level over the past few centuries. :)

Well understood, though one could say the same for Bangladesh. But I'm in the lucky country able to build (and pay for) excellent defenses. Still the WAIS will undo the place. At some point there's no way we can lose the river waters out to sea except, in the end, by retreating the delta.
That EF4 was on the ground for along spell..and Louisville still needs plenty of support.
Losing 10 is such a tragedy..

Prayers and thoughts to them this day.
Mesoscale Discussion 0595
– Concerning: SVR POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
– Issued: 3 minutes ago
Quoting 623. Patrap:



I Kicked it up a notch to .1 as I been saying for 7 years here that the Climate Models have always underplayed the obs.

: )


Okay thanks. a .1 increase over a seven year span isn't too terribly significant, so I am holding out hope that things will turn out just fine. Although, some of the maps showing the coastline effect from sea-level rise are quite alarming, and now bring into question a mere .1 increase.

Thanks for taking point all these years.
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
I don't think that is the problem, there are good climate scientist out there trying to reach out to the public, some work for NASA and NOAA and others are on the panel of the IPCC, the problem is people are in denial about the changes that are going on around them and what you say in one ear passes through the other, I compare to people who don't evacuate when a major hurricane is approaching. They just don't listen and want to form their own beliefs and opinions, science is not based off of those things. It has been tested time and time again through observations and experiments, simple things such as bringing back core samples and putting them in laboratories to see what kind of changes they undergo when set under different conditions such as temperatures. Even just taking thermometers and placing them in cold places to see how the temperature is changing over time. We know CO2 levels continue to increase because of human output, for every time we burn fossil fuels it increases the output more. It is really not that hard for a rational person who can critically think to see that, sar. I'm really surprised this is still a problem. Maybe read subject textbooks such as Environmental Science and even better Physics and Chemistry.

How do you think people are convinced to buy one brand of soap over another? One brand of shampoos over another? One brand of milk over another? I can show you volumes of scientific tests to show that all of those, with a few tiny exceptions, are equal. A rational person would decided to buy whatever's the least expensive. Guess what - they don't. With all due respect, suggesting the average American read textbooks is laughable. Many of them don't read any kind of books at all. As much as it may stick in the craw of scientists, we need to sell the concept of global warming the same way we sell soap, shampoo, or milk. We need to sell the consequences of doing nothing. Many Americans get their news, such as it is, from media outlets. It's time to pass the baton from scientists to media experts and professional communicators. We either do this or fail with the biggest marketing job in human history.
Quoting sar2401:

How do you think people are convinced to buy one brand of soap over another? One brand of shampoos over another? One brand of milk over another? I can show you volumes of scientific tests to show that all of those, with a few tiny exceptions, are equal. A rational person would decided to buy whatever's the least expensive. Guess what - they don't. With all due respect, suggesting the average American read textbooks is laughable. Many of them don't read any kind of books at all. As much as it may stick in the craw of scientists, we need to sell the concept of global warming the same way we sell soap, shampoo, or milk. We need to sell the consequences of doing nothing. Many Americans get their news, such as it is, from media outlets. It's time to pass the baton from scientists to media experts and professional communicators. We either do this or fail with the biggest marketing job in human history.


BRAVO.
One does not have to sell Science in any sense. The effects alone have and will continue to focus on it as the Social Conscience is on it like white on a picket fence. Oil is doomed, it will fight back, but the Truth and obs have a way of enforcing themselves over time.

As the CO2 Giga tonnage spills out, 24/7/365


The curve is way up.
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
... the problem is people are in denial about the changes that are going on around them and what you say in one ear passes through the other, ... Maybe read subject textbooks such as Environmental Science and even better Physics and Chemistry.


The physics is actually simple. CO2 reflects (scatters) re-radiated infrared back to the surface.

I ask doubters two questions. (1) Do you believe in the greenhouse effect? (2) What happens when CO2 increases? Sometimes, if they answer no to the first, I don't ask the 2nd.
Quoting 630. pottery:



BRAVO.


That would work for middle-aged women (and some males), but over-all it is a fairly low-rated cable channel. There must be a better way.
Quoting 628. FBMinFL:



Okay thanks. a .1 increase over a seven year span isn't too terribly significant, so I am holding out hope that things will turn out just fine. Although, some of the maps showing the coastline effect from sea-level rise are quite alarming, and now bring into question a mere .1 increase.

Thanks for taking point all these years.


The Flak Jacket is worn, but the rounds are not as intense and even much more sporadic nowadays.

Thanx

" Zippppppppppp", Zinnnnnnnnng'...Thwack.
Quoting 576. Jedkins01:



Hmmm, scientists seem to agree that isn't too late to make a change, what gives?


Ah, but I didn't say at all it was "too late to make a change". I simply stated that several centuries of warmth is already "baked in". Those two aren't the same thing, of course...
Quoting LargoFl:
might be some supercell stoms in alabama tomorrow.......................................... ............................

None of the local mets are too excited about tomorrow. Birmingham isn't even mentioning anything about this system in the HWO, and here's what Mobile has to say:

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. ALTHOUGH SOME OF
THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...THE MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE FAIRLY QUICK...AND NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. RAINFALL TOTALS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOTALS IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS
(ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-65)
.

We could use some general rainfall, as the warm weather of the past week has dried things out considerably, unless you happen to be one of the people under the widely scattered diurnal thunderstorms we've had over the last couple of days.
Quoting 629. sar2401:


How do you think people are convinced to buy one brand of soap over another? One brand of shampoos over another? One brand of milk over another? I can show you volumes of scientific tests to show that all of those, with a few tiny exceptions, are equal. A rational person would decided to buy whatever's the least expensive. Guess what - they don't. With all due respect, suggesting the average American read textbooks is laughable. Many of them don't read any kind of books at all. As much as it may stick in the craw of scientists, we need to sell the concept of global warming the same way we sell soap, shampoo, or milk. We need to sell the consequences of doing nothing. Many Americans get their news, such as it is, from media outlets. It's time to pass the baton from scientists to media experts and professional communicators. We either do this or fail with the biggest marketing job in human history.
This doesn't apply to just about America, it effects the whole world, I seriously get disgusted when one makes it out to be that Global Warming is just an American thing. As for the rest of the world they may think differently on this subject and some countries are actually farther advanced educationally then America, even when you look at the demographics over here in Universities most are made up of foreigners. Doing nothing is the worst possible thing one can do I agree with you on that. As far as the marketing thing goes many major media outlets such as CNN and FOX have been for a long time delivering the message of the consequences of Global Warming, it is now time for people who don't believe in it to wake up to the reality or they will be left behind.
Quoting FBMinFL:


That would work for middle-aged women (and some males), but over-all it is a fairly low-rated cable channel. There must be a better way.

LOL. I suggest the Guns, Ammo, and Car Parts channel...:-) Seriously, though, imagine what might be the effect if something like the Outdoor Channel did a series of where your kids might not be able to hunt, or fish, or camp if the sea level rises by, say, 4 feet by the end of the century.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORTHERN INDIANA - KIWX 100 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORTHERN INDIANA - KIWX 1240 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
FLASH FLOOD WARNING BUFFALO NY - KBUF 1009 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
Quoting 632. ChemPhysMath:



The physics is actually simple. CO2 reflects (scatters) re-radiated infrared back to the surface.

I ask doubters two questions. (1) Do you believe in the greenhouse effect? (2) What happens when CO2 increases? Sometimes, if they answer no to the first, I don't ask the 2nd.
Maybe simple for me and you, but like sar said, not for the avg. American.
The Manufactured Doubt industry and the hacked email controversy
By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:07 AM CST on November 25, 2009


In 1954, the tobacco industry realized it had a serious problem. Thirteen scientific studies had been published over the preceding five years linking smoking to lung cancer. With the public growing increasingly alarmed about the health effects of smoking, the tobacco industry had to move quickly to protect profits and stem the tide of increasingly worrisome scientific news. Big Tobacco turned to one the world's five largest public relations firms, Hill and Knowlton, to help out. Hill and Knowlton designed a brilliant Public Relations (PR) campaign to convince the public that smoking is not dangerous. They encouraged the tobacco industry to set up their own research organization, the Council for Tobacco Research (CTR), which would produce science favorable to the industry, emphasize doubt in all the science linking smoking to lung cancer, and question all independent research unfavorable to the tobacco industry. The CTR did a masterful job at this for decades, significantly delaying and reducing regulation of tobacco products. George Washington University epidemiologist David Michaels, who is President Obama's nominee to head the Occupational Health and Safety Administration (OSHA), wrote a meticulously researched 2008 book called, Doubt is Their Product: How Industry's Assault on Science Threatens Your Health. In the book, he wrote: "the industry understood that the public is in no position to distinguish good science from bad. Create doubt, uncertainty, and confusion. Throw mud at the anti-smoking research under the assumption that some of it is bound to stick. And buy time, lots of it, in the bargain". The title of Michaels' book comes from a 1969 memo from a tobacco company executive: "Doubt is our product since it is the best means of competing with the 'body of fact' that exists in the minds of the general public. It is also the means of establishing a controversy". Hill and Knowlton, on behalf of the tobacco industry, had founded the "Manufactured Doubt" industry.


Let's look at the amount of money being spent on lobbying efforts by the fossil fuel industry compared to environmental groups to see their relative influence. According to Center for Public Integrity, there are currently 2,663 climate change lobbyists working on Capitol Hill. That's five lobbyists for every member of Congress. Climate lobbyists working for major industries outnumber those working for environmental, health, and alternative energy groups by more than seven to one. For the second quarter of 2009, here is a list compiled by the Center for Public Integrity of all the oil, gas, and coal mining groups that spent more than $100,000 on lobbying (this includes all lobbying, not just climate change lobbying):

Chevron $6,485,000
Exxon Mobil $4,657,000
BP America $4,270,000
ConocoPhillips $3,300,000
American Petroleum Institute $2,120,000
Marathon Oil Corporation $2,110,000
Peabody Investments Corp $1,110,000
Bituminous Coal Operators Association $980,000
Shell Oil Company $950,000
Arch Coal, Inc $940,000
Williams Companies $920,000
Flint Hills Resources $820,000
Occidental Petroleum Corporation $794,000
National Mining Association $770,000
American Coalition for Clean Coal Electricity $714,000
Devon Energy $695,000
Sunoco $585,000
Independent Petroleum Association of America $434,000
Murphy Oil USA, Inc $430,000
Peabody Energy $420,000
Rio Tinto Services, Inc $394,000
America's Natural Gas Alliance $300,000
Interstate Natural Gas Association of America $290,000
El Paso Corporation $261,000
Spectra Energy $279,000
National Propane Gas Association $242,000
National Petrochemical & Refiners Association $240,000
Nexen, Inc $230,000
Denbury Resources $200,000
Nisource, Inc $180,000
Petroleum Marketers Association of America $170,000
Valero Energy Corporation $160,000
Bituminous Coal Operators Association $131,000
Natural Gas Supply Association $114,000
Tesoro Companies $119,000

Here are the environmental groups that spent more than $100,000:

Environmental Defense Action Fund $937,500
Nature Conservancy $650,000
Natural Resources Defense Council $277,000
Earthjustice Legal Defense Fund $243,000
National Parks and Conservation Association $175,000
Sierra Club $120,000
Defenders of Wildlife $120,000
Environmental Defense Fund $100,000

If you add it all up, the fossil fuel industry outspent the environmental groups by $36.8 million to $2.6 million in the second quarter, a factor of 14 to 1. To be fair, not all of that lobbying is climate change lobbying, but that affects both sets of numbers. The numbers don't even include lobbying money from other industries lobbying against climate change, such as the auto industry, U.S. Chamber of Commerce, etc.

Corporate profits vs. corporate social responsibility
I'm sure I've left the impression that I disapprove of what the Manufactured Doubt industry is doing. On the contrary, I believe that for the most part, the corporations involved have little choice under the law but to protect their profits by pursuing Manufactured Doubt campaigns, as long as they are legal. The law in all 50 U.S. states has a provision similar to Maine's section 716, "The directors and officers of a corporation shall exercise their powers and discharge their duties with a view to the interest of the corporation and of the shareholders". There is no clause at the end that adds, "...but not at the expense of the environment, human rights, the public safety, the communities in which the corporation operates, or the dignity of employees". The law makes a company's board of directors legally liable for "breach of fiduciary responsibility" if they knowingly manage a company in a way that reduces profits. Shareholders can and have sued companies for being overly socially responsible, and not paying enough attention to the bottom line. We can reward corporations that are managed in a socially responsible way with our business and give them incentives to act thusly, but there are limits to how far Corporate Socially Responsibility (CSR) can go. For example, car manufacturer Henry Ford was successfully sued by stockholders in 1919 for raising the minimum wage of his workers to $5 per day. The courts declared that, while Ford's humanitarian sentiments about his employees were nice, his business existed to make profits for its stockholders.
Quoting FBMinFL:


That would work for middle-aged women (and some males), but over-all it is a fairly low-rated cable channel. There must be a better way.


OK, I think I understand%u2026.. :):))

But I'm not familiar with a BRAVO channel.
Anyway the point made was a valid one.
But it does not only apply to the US.
Globally there are problems, and going back to the Power of Marketing, well, therein lies the crux of the matter.

I KNOW that given the right Marketing Budget, I could sell crap in a bucket.
And all the Buyers would be thrilled.

It goes on all the time.

EDIT%u2026 see post 642.
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
This doesn't apply to just about America, it effects the whole world, I seriously get disgusted when one makes it out to be that Global Warming is just an American thing. As for the rest of the world they may think differently on this subject and some countries are actually farther advanced educationally then America, even when you look at the demographics over here in Universities most are made up of foreigners. Doing nothing is the worst possible thing one can do I agree with you on that. As far as the marketing thing goes many major media outlets such as CNN and FOX have been for a long time delivering the message of the consequences of Global Warming, it is now time for people who don't believe in it to wake up to the reality or they will be left behind.

Yes, they have and, to some extent, the messages have been totally opposite. That's the problem. We have people in the "Don't know" camp who have increasingly been crossing over into the "I don't believe it" camp. We are failing in delivering the message that science has a better handle on this than guys like Krauthammer or Rubio. That's an absolute fact. We can either say those people are just dumb and will get left behind or we can come up with an active strategy to help market the truth. Every message, positive or negative, involves marketing and psychology. We are failing in marketing truth while others are succeeding in marketing falsehoods. We'd better change what we're doing, since what we have been doing isn't working.
Quoting 638. sar2401:


LOL. I suggest the Guns, Ammo, and Car Parts channel...:-) Seriously, though, imagine what might be the effect if something like the Outdoor Channel did a series of where your kids might not be able to hunt, or fish, or camp if the sea level rises by, say, 4 feet by the end of the century.


The concept is too abstract still. In a general sense, the ideas presented as warnings are viewed more as that of science-fiction, as opposed to science fact.

In many ways, the warnings are, in fact, conjecture. I mean, we are only 6 months or so away from 2015 ... and I have yet to see a hover-type skate board like Marty McFly had when he visited 2015 from 1985. It was conjecture 30 years ago, and now that the time is here ... it remains an abstract concept.
Not surprised this is so anemic. Tropically, globally speaking it's still dead. Not an invest in the world.
Hi Scott, I do believe their will be an El-Nino this year and I hope it will only be a weak to moderate one. I don't want to see all the death and destruction that a super nino could cause. As far as hurricanes go, how can you project the amount of storms this year and in 2915? Not even the experts with PHD's can. An El-Nino or La Nina are but one component of a hurricane season. One last thing what is your PHD in?

i don't think i'm even this hard on the boy...LOL...but i can answer the question

bs = bull ...oops...never mind..this is a gentle site

ms= more of the same

phd= pile high and deep

Quoting 632. ChemPhysMath:



The physics is actually simple. CO2 reflects (scatters) re-radiated infrared back to the surface.

I ask doubters two questions. (1) Do you believe in the greenhouse effect? (2) What happens when CO2 increases? Sometimes, if they answer no to the first, I don't ask the 2nd.


Actually, it's a bit more complicated than that. The more you add a particular greenhouse gas to the atmosphere, the less heat trapping effect each additional molecule has. Eventually, you reach saturation point, where additional molecules do not cause warming.

Different GHGs intercept outgoing infrared at wavelengths specific for the molecule. CO2 intercepts at two fairly narrow bands, whereas H2O traps heat at a broader range of wavelengths, which is why water vapour is a more powerful GHG.

There is only a tiny amount of the artificial CFCs and HCFCs in the atmosphere, but the warming effect of these molecules is many thousands of times that of a CO2 molecule, because they trap infrared at wavelengths no naturally occurring gas can intercept.

Some years ago, a denier argument often heard was that there was already so much CO2 in the air, that adding more would make little difference, because virtually all the outgoing infrared at the wavelengths trapped by the CO2 molecule, was already being intercepted.

However, the runaway greenhouse effect seen on Venus is caused by CO2 and H2O, so I wouldn't be too complacent about that.
Quoting Skyepony:
Not surprised this is so anemic. Tropically, globally speaking it's still dead. Not an invest in the world.


Fishing in the Central Bahamas Thursday-Saturday. No tropical cyclones, that's true, but it looks to be more unsettled than most year with a lot of showers and thunderstorms all three days.
Quoting yonzabam:


Actually, it's a bit more complicated than that. The more you add a particular greenhouse gas to the atmosphere, the less heat trapping effect each additional molecule has. Eventually, you reach saturation point, where additional molecules do not cause warming.

Different GHGs intercept outgoing infrared at wavelengths specific for the molecule. CO2 intercepts at two fairly narrow bands, whereas H2O traps heat at a broader range of wavelengths, which is why water vapour is a more powerful GHG.

There is only a tiny amount of the artificial CFCs and HCFCs in the atmosphere, but the warming effect of these molecules is many thousands of times that of a CO2 molecule, because they trap infrared at wavelengths no naturally occurring gas can intercept.

Some years ago, a denier argument often heard was that there was already so much CO2 in the air, that adding more would make little difference, because virtually all the outgoing infrared at the wavelengths trapped by the CO2 molecule, was already being intercepted.

However, the runaway greenhouse effect seen on Venus is caused by CO2 and H2O, so I wouldn't be too complacent about that.
Flash Flood in USA on Tuesday, 13 May, 2014 at 12:03 (12:03 PM) UTC.
Description
Heavy rain led to high water and tornado warnings across Lorain County May 12. Severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings took effect in the evening and a tornado warning was issued for Lorain, Medina, Cuyahoga and Erie counties. First responders received numerous calls for homes flooding and vehicles trapped in high waters. Flowing water was reported along state Route 83, where some residents reported losing power about 9:30 p.m. Reports also mentioned areas along state Route 58, where water reached heights of 1 foot, 5 inches, spanning 30 to 40 feet across the road. The area near Squires Schramm Ditch on state Route 58 just north of Russia Road reached high levels in a construction zone. Water reached the bottom of the bridge, reports stated. Other reports mentioned several streets where emergency vehicles were forced to drive in the center turning lane. "I'm getting reports of mass flooding throughout the city," Lorain Safety-Service Director Robert Fowler said. "Places that have never flooded before are flooding." As of 7:45 p.m. the area of First Street and Washington Avenue was flooded with the city's storm sewer overflowing. First Street was to be closed and by 8:50 p.m., Fowler said he was researching options to close Lorain streets to traffic. At Lorain City Hall, 200 W. Erie Ave., Council's Streets & Utilities Committee adjourned with a special call of council to convene five minutes later. A city resident burst into the council chambers to ask what the city would do about flooding around Tower Boulevard. Several vehicles were seen stopped along Tower Boulevard, and areas of Oberlin Avenue also were submerged below feet of water. Council started the meeting and as the board made the appropriate motions to borrow money for the Jaeger Road widening project, Mayor Chase Ritenauer announced the severe weather warnings from the floor. He said the Lorain City Hall basement would be opened for shelter in an emergency, although it appeared no one went there for emergency protection. However, city Council members, the administration and residents lingered in the building lobby waiting for a break in the rain. Richard M. Novak, executive director of Lorain Port Authority, said he bought 40 bags of topsoil from Home Depot to use as sand bags to keep water off the deck of his home on Washington Avenue south of Tower Boulevard.
Quoting 649. georgevandenberghe:



Fishing in the Central Bahamas Thursday-Saturday. No tropical cyclones, that's true, but it looks to be more unsettled than most year with a lot of showers and thunderstorms all three days.

More South in the Bahamas doesn't look too bad for Thursday - Saturday fishing. Maybe take rain gear.. I don't think they'll be going out here in Central FL on Thursday & Fri..

Quoting yonzabam:


Actually, it's a bit more complicated than that.


Actually, the basic idea is simple. It's the details that are complicated.

The issue you raise, called sensitivity, is defined as "How much the average temperature rises to reach equilibrium with a doubling of CO2." Answer that question and you have a response for the dimwits who say "All the infrared is reflected."
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Maybe simple for me and you, but like sar said, not for the avg. American.


And some (scary how many) people just don't care about this planet.

I see them throwing their beer bottles out their car window along with their trash and cigarette butts.

Here's some tasty information about cigarettes.
"What we do know is that worldwide 5.6 trillion filtered cigarettes are smoked annually, with an estimated 1.7 billion pounds of cigarette butt litter. Here in the U.S., more than 1.35 trillion cigarettes were manufactured in 2007, of which 360 billion were smoked here. Look closely at the ground at any intersection. They're everywhere!

Are cigarette butts litter? Absolutely! But unlike paper products they're not biodegradable. Nearly all cigarette filters are composed of a bundle of 12,000 plastic-like cellulose acetate fibers. Cellulose acetate is photodegradable but not bio-degradable. It can take years, in some cases up to fifteen, for ultraviolet light to cause fibers to decay into a plastic powder that can't be seen. As they do their deadly cargo is released.

The nicotine trapped inside 200 used filters may be sufficient to kill a 160 pound adult human - 30 to 60 milligrams. Imagine a month without rain followed by a brief thunderstorm that washes 500,000 nicotine laden canoes - enough to kill 2,500 humans - into area creeks and streams. Aquatic life at the bottom of the food chain can pay a deadly price. But so can fish who mistake butts for food or birds who use them for nesting material. Nicotine isn't the only villain as trapped tars and toxic gases leach into waterways too."

Taken from "Mother Earth is Not an Ashtray"
http://whyquit.com/whyquit/A_Butts.html
Quoting 629. sar2401:


How do you think people are convinced to buy one brand of soap over another? One brand of shampoos over another? One brand of milk over another? I can show you volumes of scientific tests to show that all of those, with a few tiny exceptions, are equal. A rational person would decided to buy whatever's the least expensive. Guess what - they don't. With all due respect, suggesting the average American read textbooks is laughable. Many of them don't read any kind of books at all. As much as it may stick in the craw of scientists, we need to sell the concept of global warming the same way we sell soap, shampoo, or milk. We need to sell the consequences of doing nothing. Many Americans get their news, such as it is, from media outlets. It's time to pass the baton from scientists to media experts and professional communicators. We either do this or fail with the biggest marketing job in human history.


But that's the problem. Professional communicators cost money, which scientists don't have. Congress already seems to take a personal joy in slashing science budgets. If you go to them and ask for science "marketing" money they'd laugh at you and then remove half of the NSF funding just to spite you. And even if they got the funding to do so it would basically be nothing more than pocket change compared to huge amount of money from, say, the fossil fuel industry.

Unfortunately I think this is going to play out the same way leaded gasoline controversy played out. It's going to take another 30-40 years before anything seriously gets done, mainly due to the combined efforts of anti-science and fossil fuel related groups.
Quoting ChemPhysMath:


Actually, the basic idea is simple. It's the details that are complicated.

The issue you raise, called sensitivity, is defined as "How much the average temperature rises to reach equilibrium with a doubling of CO2." Answer that question and you have a response for the dimwits who say "All the infrared is reflected."

Actually, the average dimit doesn't even have an idea of what infrared is other than he might have one of those red bulbs in the bathroom to help heat him up after a shower. I would prefer not to call them dimits, since that's the kind of thing that makes them disengage their ears as soon as they hear it, but scientists don't really seem to have a clue what the level of understanding about this big issues is with the average person. None of this is simple for them. OTOH, cars are one of the most complicated things the average person deals with on a daily basis, yet car companies can convince the average person to buy their car over that of a competitor. They did learn a long time ago that the vast majority of buyers neither want nor will read a 13 chapter explanation about why their car is better, complete with graphs and citations. They will look at an 8 page glossy brochure with lots of pictures though. For those that want a 13 chapter explanation, they produce those too, just a lot less than the 8 page brochures.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


But that's the problem. Professional communicators cost money, which scientists don't have. Congress already seems to take a personal joy in slashing science budgets. If you go to them and ask for science "marketing" money they'd laugh at you and then remove half of the NSF funding just to spite you. And even if they got the funding to do so it would basically be nothing more than pocket change compared to huge amount of money from, say, the fossil fuel industry.

Unfortunately I think this is going to play out the same way leaded gasoline controversy played out. It's going to take another 30-40 years before anything seriously gets done, mainly due to the combined efforts of anti-science and fossil fuel related groups.

Really? How did NOAA manage to produce the NCA report, which I assume wasn't inexpensive? Do you have some evidence that any group has indeed asked for marketing money, or at least diverted some of the existing funds into marketing? The easiest thing to do is to throw up our hands and say that there's really nothing we can do about it. I think there are things that can be done about it, and I don't think we've tried very hard yet.
Quoting 645. FBMinFL:



The concept is too abstract still. In a general sense, the ideas presented as warnings are viewed more as that of science-fiction, as opposed to science fact.

In many ways, the warnings are, in fact, conjecture. I mean, we are only 6 months or so away from 2015 ... and I have yet to see a hover-type skate board like Marty McFly had when he visited 2015 from 1985. It was conjecture 30 years ago, and now that the time is here ... it remains an abstract concept.


A conjecture is an unsubstantiated statement. It can be an educated guess. It may even end up being correct with further study. But it still lacks substantive proof or evidence to support it.

A climate projection, on the other hand, does have supporting evidence through physics, data and observations. It's backed by science and carries far more weight than a simple conjecture.
The 2014 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Penn State ESSC makes prediction

ESSC scientist Michael E. Mann, alumnus Michael Kozar, and researcher Sonya Miller have released their seasonal prediction for the 2014 North Atlantic hurricane season, which officially starts on June 1st and runs through November 30th.

The prediction is for 9.3 +/- 3.0 total named tropical cyclones, which corresponds to a range between 6 and 12 storms with a best estimate of 9 named storms. This prediction was made using the statistical model of Kozar et al. (2012, see PDF here). This statistical model builds upon the past work of Sabbatelli and Mann (2007, see PDF here) by considering a larger number of climate predictors and including corrections for the historical undercount of events (see footnotes).

The assumptions behind this forecast are (a) the persistence of current North Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (0.29°C in mid-May 2014 from NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch) throughout the 2014 hurricane season, (b) development of a moderate El Niño (Niño3 anomaly of 1°C) in the equatorial Pacific during boreal Fall/Winter 2014-15 (Climate Prediction Center ENSO Discussion), and (c) climatological mean conditions for the North Atlantic Oscillation in Fall/Winter 2014-15.

If a milder El Niño develops instead (Niño3 anomaly of ~0.5°C), then the prediction will be slightly higher: 10.1 +/- 3.1 storms (range of 7-13 storms with a best guess of 10). If a very strong El Niño develops (Niño3 anomaly of ~2°C), then the prediction will be slightly lower: 7.9 +/- 2.8 storms (range of 5-11 storms with a best guess of 8).

Using an alternative model that uses "relative" MDR SST (MDR SST with the average tropical mean SST subtracted) in place of MDR SST yields a similar prediction (8.3 +/- 2.9 total named storms).
References:
Kozar, M.E., Mann, M.E., Camargo, S.J., Kossin, J.P., Evans, J.L., 2012: Stratified statistical models of North Atlantic basin-wide and regional tropical cyclone counts, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D18103, doi:10.1029/2011JD017170.

Mann, M.E., Sabbatelli, T.A., Neu, U., 2007: Evidence for a Modest Undercount Bias in Early Historical Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Counts, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L22707, doi:10.1029/2007GL031781.

Sabbatelli, T.A., Mann, M.E., 2007: The Influence of Climate State Variables on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Occurrence Rates, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D17114, doi: 10.1029/2007JD008385.

Vecchi, G.A., Knutson, T.R., 2008: On Estimates of Historical North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity, J.Climate, 21, 3580-3600, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2178.

Footnotes:

The tropical cyclone series was corrected based on an estimated historical undercount taken from Vecchi and Knutson (2008).

Prediction made: 12 May 2014

This webpage last updated: 13 May 2014
There have been some great conferences on communicating science and climate change.Link
But obviously the lessons have not been learned well enough.

The Years of Living Dangerously series was good this week, but is it being watched...by the audience, that doesn't already know the message?
Last nights final rainfall totals. I got 2 1/2 inches :)

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


And some (scary how many) people just don't care about this planet.

I see them throwing their beer bottles out their car window along with their trash and cigarette butts.

Here's some tasty information about cigarettes.
"What we do know is that worldwide 5.6 trillion filtered cigarettes are smoked annually, with an estimated 1.7 billion pounds of cigarette butt litter. Here in the U.S., more than 1.35 trillion cigarettes were manufactured in 2007, of which 360 billion were smoked here. Look closely at the ground at any intersection. They're everywhere!

Are cigarette butts litter? Absolutely! But unlike paper products they're not biodegradable. Nearly all cigarette filters are composed of a bundle of 12,000 plastic-like cellulose acetate fibers. Cellulose acetate is photodegradable but not bio-degradable. It can take years, in some cases up to fifteen, for ultraviolet light to cause fibers to decay into a plastic powder that can't be seen. As they do their deadly cargo is released.

The nicotine trapped inside 200 used filters may be sufficient to kill a 160 pound adult human - 30 to 60 milligrams. Imagine a month without rain followed by a brief thunderstorm that washes 500,000 nicotine laden canoes - enough to kill 2,500 humans - into area creeks and streams. Aquatic life at the bottom of the food chain can pay a deadly price. But so can fish who mistake butts for food or birds who use them for nesting material. Nicotine isn't the only villain as trapped tars and toxic gases leach into waterways too."

Taken from "Mother Earth is Not an Ashtray"
http://whyquit.com/whyquit/A_Butts.html

See, here is a great opportunity for some cigarette company. I can't imagine that there's not a way to produce a biodegradable filter. Let's face it, most filters don't do much anyway. I'm a smoker, and I would buy a brand with a biodegradable filter over on that didn't have one...if I knew it was even a problem. Do you think a site like the one listed that has this on their homepage is going to change anyone's mind, or even get their message out? There's a difference between a message and a clubbing.

Freedom is an open nicotine dependency recovery forum where 100% of the group's posts and materials are available to all, regardless of membership. A single-minded program, those applying for posting privileges must have quit all forms of nicotine delivery cold turkey within the past 30 days, without use of any products, pills, e-cigarettes or procedures, and remained 100% nicotine-free for at least 72 hours. A nicotine-free forum, any nicotine relapse - even one puff, dip or chew - permanently revokes posting privileges.

EDIT: I did it again. I'll bet I have a 95 % success rate in being the last post after Dr. M does a new blog. :-)
Quoting 629. sar2401:


How do you think people are convinced to buy one brand of soap over another... we need to sell the concept of global warming the same way we sell soap, shampoo, or milk. ...
this being said... what are we really saving? If the populace has to be 'sold' on their own survival the implication is that they are 'for sale', and that means the highest bidder will most likely succeed in the climate war propaganda battle ground. Which begs the query: Who has the deepest pockets? who stands to gain the most from climate legislation and regulation? Who stands to lose the most from the same? if the ACA was such a mess, how much more would the enacting of comprehensive and meaningful global environmental agreements be? And as the West is trending down in global influence, who of the emerging global leaders are going to want to curtail their rise, which is fueled in large part by coal? .. How would anyone influence China to reduce its use of coal? How many people do you know would be willing to boycott 'Made in China' goods? And how many global leaders are increasing their own wealth by investing in those non eco-friendly emerging markets?
Quoting 657. sar2401:


Really? How did NOAA manage to produce the NCA report, which I assume wasn't inexpensive? Do you have some evidence that any group has indeed asked for marketing money, or at least diverted some of the existing funds into marketing? The easiest thing to do is to throw up our hands and say that there's really nothing we can do about it. I think there are things that can be done about it, and I don't think we've tried very hard yet.


Reports like the NCA are not marketing. They are scientific reports. These reports are used by other government agencies, Congress, and businesses to aid in decision making. They are also available to the public.

These reports are no different than, say, the reports put out by the CBO. They're just part of the operations of the organization/agency that puts them together. If it wasn't for news organizations, you'd likely never even know they exist.

Contrast this with the "CO2, it's what plants crave" ads put out by organizations like the Heartland Institute.
The National Climate Assessment – Thank You
By: Dr. Ricky Rood , 1:54 PM CDT on May 11, 2014


After more than four years of preparation and review, the National Climate Assessment was released last week (May 6, 2014). I was surprised at the attention that it got in the press, especially after following the three recent IPCC assessment reports. The headline on Science Friday was Another Climate report but Who is Listening. Many have treated the report as a one-time event, with the most common headline being that climate change is already here.

Aside from straightforward reporting about the assessment and its content, there was also a strand of political reporting; there is always a political conversation. Climate Progress has a blog entry on cable TV coverage, with Al Jazeera America the outlet with the most coverage. There is also an entry on the worst TV reactions to the National Climate Assessment.

Here we have the standard response to the release of the climate assessment. There is straightforward reporting and the attempt to reach as many people as possible - the effort to get it out there. Aside from the reporting, there is flurry of politicization, claims that the National Climate Assessment (NCA) is a political document, attempts to correct facts about the motivations of the document, a set of statements about the document showing that this is our last chance to avoid the worst effects of climate change and a set of statements that if we do respond to climate change it will be our economic ruin. Then, poof, it’s largely gone.

The National Climate Assessment (NCA) is a review of climate change and its impact on the U.S. – as stated on their website, “The National Climate Assessment summarizes the impacts of climate change on the United States, now and in the future.” With a major focus on “now,” the NCA is largely based on observations. There is a summary of highlights, and within that summary there are short descriptions of observed changes in our climate. There are graphics, many with nice, simple interactive features that clarify the text. There is the capability to find, easily, an url and link directly to the graphics. Here is Arctic Sea Ice Decline comparing September 1984 and September 2012. There are 12 categories in report findings, with a short finding statement for each category, for example, in the infrastructure category, “Infrastructure is being damaged by sea level rise, heavy downpours, and extreme heat; damages are projected to increase with continued climate change.”

Compared with previous assessments there has been remarkable progress in making the document both communicative and web accessible. Here is a figure of Sea Surface Temperature Changes from Average:



Figure 1: Sea surface temperatures for the ocean surrounding the U.S. and its territories have risen by more than 0.9°F over the past century. (Figure source: adapted from Chavez et al. 2011 1). (That's supposed to be a superscript after the date.)

In the online NCA document if you hover over the superscript, then the full reference pops up. If you click on the “Details/Download” below the figure in the original document, then you get brief metadata about the figure. In addition there is a supplemental graphic that shows what is meant by “ocean surrounding the U.S. and its territories.” You can download the figure. Here is the link to go check it out. This information associated with the figure is a great step forward in allowing traceability to the original source of information and supports transparency.

I know many of the people involved in the assessment. I have also worked on information technology to improve the usability of climate data and climate knowledge in planning. My first blush is that what has been produced by the team, led through most of the project by Kathy Jacobs, is a huge accomplishment. It is an enormous task to assess the scientific literature, to assemble information and to manage expert and public review. This report also has a great effort in improved communication, an effort which Susan Joy Hassol has earned accolades. On top of that are important advances to place the document online, taking advantage of and facilitating evolving methods of reporting and communication. I also want to mention Ken Kunkel, who I know did an enormous amount of novel analysis and interpretation for the NCA. These and the many other people involved in the NCA deserve tremendous thanks.

I have a proposal that was recently funded and part of that proposal is to evaluate the usability of the NCA in adaptation planning. More than a report at a given moment of the state of the climate in the U.S., the National Climate Assessment is a document that serves as a translation of the observations, projections and literature on climate change. The translation is from the science community to those who need to use climate-knowledge in planning. The NCA focused on the U.S., and there are both regional and sectoral descriptions of the impacts of climate change. Sectoral refers to things like public health, energy and agriculture. In fact, I have already used some of the figures from the technical reports that contributed to the NCA in previous blogs and in the project I worked on for Isle Royale National Park. To me, this document is not simply a press release and a flurry of politicized reporting. It is a document to use, and in its use to improve the usability of climate information and, ultimately, to improve future NCAs.
The thought of having to "market" AGW repels me. Until people stop living inside their heads and recognize that there is such a thing as objective reality, that "entertainment news" is an oxymoron, and that nature, not us, holds all the trumps, then what possible good can come from "marketing"?
Quoting 629. sar2401:


How do you think people are convinced to buy one brand of soap over another? One brand of shampoos over another? One brand of milk over another? I can show you volumes of scientific tests to show that all of those, with a few tiny exceptions, are equal. A rational person would decided to buy whatever's the least expensive. Guess what - they don't. With all due respect, suggesting the average American read textbooks is laughable. Many of them don't read any kind of books at all. As much as it may stick in the craw of scientists, we need to sell the concept of global warming the same way we sell soap, shampoo, or milk. We need to sell the consequences of doing nothing. Many Americans get their news, such as it is, from media outlets. It's time to pass the baton from scientists to media experts and professional communicators. We either do this or fail with the biggest marketing job in human history.

Unfortunately I think the great majority of at least the American people believe that "God will save them"; that there will either be a "great Rapture and all the good folks will be safe", or "God will fix the mess we've made". Overcoming that sort of misplaced childish belief is next to impossible given the state of our education system. Even if we could start now and re-educate the entire young generation, and all succeeding generations, it would be 30-40 years before they became effective leaders and started turning things around. By that time the ice in West Antarctica will be going fast and sea level will be rising fast, and the climate will be out of control. Sad. But we can keep trying to change minds.
Quoting 635. Neapolitan:



Ah, but I didn't say at all it was "too late to make a change". I simply stated that several centuries of warmth is already "baked in". Those two aren't the same thing, of course...


Yes, you're right, good point.
I guess life as a meteorologist in Alaska can get boring, so one must result to humor and self entertainment...

I must say though, this is the least technical NWS discussion I've ever read, lol:


000
FXAK67 PAJK 131401
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
601 AM AKDT TUE MAY 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...PICKING A MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THE DAY IS A LITTLE
LIKE SPEED-DATING: TOO LITTLE TIME/INFORMATION TO MAKE UP THE
MIND LEADING TO REGRETS BY THE END OF THE DATE/SHIFT. THE
AMERICAN NAM IS MODERN, DETAIL-ORIENTED, PROLIFIC, WILLING IF A
LITTLE IMPETUOUS AND INCREDIBLY REACTIONARY. THE AMERICAN
GFS--THE MODEL NEXT DOOR--QUITE OLD FASHIONED, AN OPEN BOOK, EASY
ON THE EYES IF A LITTLE STAID AT TIMES. ALWAYS TALKING ABOUT THE
FUTURE WHILE WHITE-WASHING THE PRESENT. THE CANADIAN SOMETIMES A
LITTLE PRO-EUROPEAN SOMETIMES A LITTLE PRO AMERICAN...MANY TIMES
HARD TO READ, BUT OFTEN HAS A SUNNIER OUTLOOK THAN THE OTHERS.
TOO SUNNY SOMETIMES. AND THAT EUROPEAN ONE...INTELLIGENT, TREND-
SETTING, AND ALLURING-- ONLY APPEARING TWICE A DAY--MAKES ME WANT
MORE. AND TODAY I WANTED MORE AGAIN SO I MADE MY SELECTION. BUT
SOMETIMES I LOOK BACK AND WONDER WHAT COULD HAVE BEEN.


Its not a hoax either, see for yourself:

Link

It made me laugh anyway.