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Super Typhoon Haiyan Storm Surge Survey Finds High Water Marks 46 Feet High

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:47 PM GMT on May 08, 2014

Category 5 Super Typhoon Haiyan, with satellite-estimated winds of 190 - 195 mph at landfall on November 8, 2013, pushed a massive storm surge of up to 23 feet (7 meters) into Tacloban, Philippines, newly-published storm surge survey results reveal. A team of researchers led by Yoshimitsu Tajima of the Department of Civil Engineering at the University of Tokyo found that at Haiyan's initial landfall point on the east coast of Samar Island, massive waves on top of the storm surge crashed against the coast, creating high water marks an astonishing 46 feet (14.1 meters) above mean sea level--some of the highest high-water marks ever recorded from a tropical cyclone. The world record is 13 - 14.6 meters (43 - 48 feet) from Australia's March 5, 1899 Bathurst Bay Cyclone. The greatest storm surge and high water mark recorded in an Atlantic hurricane are from Hurricane Katrina of 2005, which had a peak storm surge in Pass Christian, Mississippi of 27.8 feet (8.46 meters). The sea bottom was very flat in this region, so the waves on top of the surge were relatively small, and the highest high water mark from Katrina was just a few inches higher, at 28 feet (8.53 meters.) When deep water lies just offshore, as is the case for the east coast of the Philippines' Samar Island, huge waves will develop when the eyewall of an intense tropical cyclone moves over. These huge waves broke very close to shore during Haiyan, and were able to run-up the steep hillsides to incredible heights.


Figure 1. High water marks (in meters) in the wake of Super Typhoon Haiyan's storm surge in the Philippines on November 8, 2013. Numbers with "V" had significant waves on top of the storm surge; "R" indicates wave run-up height (where waves on top of the surge allowed the water to run-up onto shore much higher than the actual surge height), and symbols without letters are still water inundation (storm surge) heights. The high water marks are corrected for the tide levels at the time of the survey (tidal range in the Central Philippines is generally less than 1 meter, so this is a small correction in most cases.) The data is plotted from the survey results of Tajima et al., 2014.

Results of the storm surge survey
Andrew Kennedy, Associate Professor in Notre Dame's Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering & Earth Sciences, was part of a second Super Typhoon Haiyan storm surge survey done in January 2014 (whose results have not yet been published), and wrote this email to me: "We surveyed many locations concentrating on the open Pacific coast of Eastern Samar, just north of first landfall. The team was led by Professor Yoshimitsu Tajima of the University of Tokyo. We are still processing results, but found many locations with wave run-up in the 9 - 10 meter range. These waves and surge tossed palm trees, large boulders, and other debris up to elevations that would seem improbable if you had not seen the evidence. The communities affected by this storm remain devastated, and there is still no power in Guiuan, the largest city in Eastern Samar and our base for part of the survey.  In addition to the inundation, we also looked a lot at damage--mainly from waves and surge, but partly from wind. This included the small Barangay (town) of Hernani, the location of the frightening Nixon Gensis video showing waves washing away a house. We interviewed many people both in Hernani and other locations who described similar experiences of very sudden destructive inundation. I will say it again: ten meter run-up is hard to believe if you haven’t seen it."


Video 1. Nickson Gensis, Plan Philippines Community Development Worker, filmed what is probably the most remarkable video of storm surge ever taken. The video was taken from the from the top floor of a boarding house during Super Typhoon Haiyan in Hernani, in Eastern Samar, Philippines on November 8, 2013. Australian tropical cyclone expert Bruce Harper had this to say about the remarkable "tsunami-like" storm surge observed at 46 seconds into the video: This site at Hernani is quite exposed on the eastern coast of Samar, and has a fringing reef. My guess is that we are seeing the sudden exposure to deep water ocean swell waves that were triggered by the tide and sea level increase due to the storm surge. There is a critical water level where waves impacting on reefs can suddenly cause a massive increase in wave setup in the form of a tsunami-like effect such as we see in the video. A similar effect was reported at Basey, ten miles to the northeast of Tacloban across the San Juanico Strait, in this news report: "Edgar dela Cruz, 45, of Barangay Mercado, recounted to The STAR the sight of what looked like a tsunami. During the strange lull in the typhoon, he went out of his house. Jinamok Island was a kilometer across the sea from his village, he said. The sea receded about halfway to the island. 'There was a kind of low black cloud moving toward us,' Dela Cruz said. 'We heard a loud boom, like an explosion. And then we saw the giant waves--four giant waves--it was horrible.' Their house was destroyed. He said he and his family escaped with only the clothes on their backs." In this case, the reports suggest that northeast winds ahead of the center of Haiyan caused an initial “negative surge” effect in the shallow waters in this area, followed by the winds turning to E and SE as the center came closer. You can then develop quite a gradient in the water levels capable of producing this effect. The fast speed of the storm may also have contributed to this specific phenomenon. Yao Zhang of Notre Dame's Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering & Earth Sciences has modeled the waves and surge at Hernani, Eastern Samar, using a one-dimensional Boussinesq model. These show periodic surges and recessions very similar to those seen by Nickson Gensis. Magnitudes are quite large--over 5 meters--which does not include any initial storm surge. The simulations are not perfectly accurate, due to the lack of perfect bathymetry and incident waves. A video of one of his model runs may be seen at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KPYGQCE3778. The middle plot is a zoomed-in version of the larger-scale version shown in the top panel.


Figure 2. Storm surge damage from Super Typhoon Haiyan on Victory Island, Samar. Image credit: Getty Images.

A deadly storm surge for Tacloban
Tacloban (population 221,000) is the largest city on the Philippines' east coast, and is low-lying, with much of the city at less than ten feet elevation. Its position at the pointy end of a funnel-shaped bay makes its location particularly vulnerable to storm surge, since the topography acts to concentrate water at the apex of the funnel. The storm surge in Tacloban from Haiyan ranged from 4.6 - 7.0 meters (15 - 23 feet) according to the survey results, and caused catastrophic loss of life. An April 17, 2014 report from the Philippine National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council listed 7,361 people dead or missing from Haiyan, making the typhoon the deadliest disaster in Philippine history. Most of these deaths occurred due to the storm surge in the Tacloban region. According to storm surge expert Dr. Hal Needham, the record highest storm surge in modern history in East Asia was 24 feet (7.3 meters) in 1897 on Samar Island, Philippines--the same location where Haiyan initially hit.


Video 2. This animation by Deltares shows computed storm surge levels and wind vectors as Super Typhoon Haiyan makes landfall near Tacloban City, The Philippines. Surge levels were computed using Delft3D two days after landfall. The wind fields are based on Joint Typhoon Warning Center data, and generated a simulated storm surge of over 16.4 feet (5 meters) for Tacloban.

Links
Tajima, Y., et al., 2014, Initial Report of JSCE-PICE Joint Survey on the Storm Surge Disaster caused by Typhoon Haiyan, Coastal Engineering Journal Volume 56, Issue 01, March 2014.

A detailed look at Haiyan's storm surge, my December 2013 blog post.

(An interesting side note: I talked to a journalist who traveled to Eastern Samar after Haiyan hit. She talked to a worker who sheltered at the radar site in Guiuan that had its radome blown off during the height of the storm. The worker reported that they measured a pressure of 892 mb as the eye passed over. I haven't heard anything official out of the Philippines about this measurement, though, and the official landfalling pressure of Haiyan remains the 895 mb estimated via satellite by the Japan Meteorological Agency.)


Video 3. Palo, Philippines, located just south of Tacloban, was located in a more intense part of the eyewall of Super Typhoon Haiyan, as is evident by the remarkable extreme winds and storm surge captured in this video. According to storm chaser Josh Morgerman, the most extreme damage occurred a little farther south than Palo, in Tolosa and Tanauan.


Video 4. The storm surge in Tacloban, Philippines during the landfall of Super Typhoon Haiyan is captured at about the 3:30 - 4:20 mark in this video shot by ABSCBN News of the Philippines.

My next post will be Monday at the latest.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1501. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
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SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSONVILLE FL - KJAX 421 PM EDT SUN MAY 11 2014
1502. Patrap
  •  
    397  
    WUUS52 KJAX 112023  
    SVRJAX  
    FLC019-031-109-112115-  
    /O.NEW.KJAX.SV.W.0038.140511T2023Z-140511T2115Z/  
     
    BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL  
    423 PM EDT SUN MAY 11 2014  
     
    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A  
     
    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
    NORTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA  
    NORTHWESTERN ST. JOHNS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA  
    CENTRAL DUVAL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA  
     
    * UNTIL 515 PM EDT  
     
    * AT 423 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE  
    TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE  
    HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS  
    LOCATED NEAR MANDARIN...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.  
     
    * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO  
    MANDARIN...LAKESIDE...ORANGE PARK...BAYMEADOWS...NAS JAX...SAN  
    MARCO...RIVERSIDE...ORTEGA...NORMANDY...JACKSONVIL LE AND ARLINGTON.  
     
    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
     
    IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO  
    GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS  
    IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.  
    REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE  
    STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.  
     
    REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY  
    OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.  
     
     
     
    LAT...LON 3028 8188 3039 8162 3010 8151 3003 8170  
    TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 155DEG 7KT 3015 8165  
     
     
     
    STRUBLE  
     
    CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Anyone want to take a guess on which storm will be tornado warned first???

Im thinking the Nebraska cell
1504. Patrap
1505. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
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SVR T-STORM WARNING QUAD CITIES IA IL - KDVN 325 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014
Quoting 1475. MaxWeather:


Yes, it matters

I don't understand why you people think you have to give me a novel long scientific explanation about your prediction.
I don't need it. Just your plain numbers!
#69 for you


Thanks! Glad you're ok with uneducated guesses. Hopefully by next year it won't be so uneducated. :)
Quoting sar2401:


I would guess it has something to with selling videos, which is easier if you don't see anything (and record it) live.


That's what I was thinking. But it drives me crazy to follow along with him in the chase and then he cuts off the feed right when it gets good.
Lots of chaser out today and much better visibility than chasing in Arkansas or the S.E. We should see some nice footage today.
Quoting 1503. Doppler22:

Anyone want to take a guess on which storm will be tornado warned first???

Im thinking the Nebraska cell

I agree. That thing is a beast.
Definitely looks like a hook is trying to form.
I'm sure the NWS has a better look at the storm though and would issue a tornado warning if it was.
Max, you can add mine: 10-5-2. I'm thinking we are likely to see a fair amount of activity in the EPac early on, which usually keeps ATL activity low in the MJJ period, but also a rather slow OND period as el nino conditions take hold.

I'm going to be watching the CPac with interest again this year, and wouldn't be surprised to see a couple of spectacular cyclones in that area this season.
Quoting 1506. Weathergirlklein:



Thanks! Glad you're ok with uneducated guesses. Hopefully by next year it won't be so uneducated. :)


Hey, don't worry. Most of us here only have a sprinkling of knowledge. My prediction from last year was supposed to be a joke (8-4-1)...until the season started to underperform like it did.
Quoting 1443. Patrap:

This, matters Greatly to every American, and every Human Globally.


The National Climate Assessment %u2013 Thank You
By: Dr. Ricky Rood , 1:54 PM CDT on May 11, 2014


I want to carry this over. I've learned so much here not only from Dr. Ricky Rood who writes in language easy to understand but the bloggers are very up to speed and post great comments and informative links time and again. I'm always learning and continue to have a very open mind. I highly recommend this blog. I've followed Dr Rood since his first post. Thanks Patrap.
BTW, after rereading the current blog entry, I am thinking how Haiyan would have put sea water in my house several miles from the coast with that 46 foot storm surge mark... if it had approached New Providence from the south...
If the Hastings cell drops a tornado (which, IMO, it will) Harvard, NE (pop. 1013) could be in for a hit.

Quoting 1510. BahaHurican:

Max, you can add mine: 10-5-2. I'm thinking we are likely to see a fair amount of activity in the EPac early on, which usually keeps ATL activity low in the MJJ period, but also a rather slow OND period as el nino conditions take hold.

I'm going to be watching the CPac with interest again this year, and wouldn't be surprised to see a couple of spectacular cyclones in that area this season.

Hopefully another Iniki, but one that does not hit Hawaii
1516. Patrap
  •  
    404  
    WFUS53 KDVN 112032  
    TORDVN  
    IAC087-101-183-112100-  
    /O.NEW.KDVN.TO.W.0011.140511T2032Z-140511T2100Z/  
     
    BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
    TORNADO WARNING  
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL  
    332 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014  
     
    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A  
     
    * TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
    NORTHWESTERN HENRY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IOWA...  
    NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IOWA...  
    SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IOWA...  
     
    * UNTIL 400 PM CDT  
     
    * AT 330 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
    TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR PLEASANT PLAIN...AND MOVING EAST AT 30  
    MPH.  
     
    HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.  
     
    SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
     
    IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO  
    ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS  
    WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. TREE DAMAGE IS  
    LIKELY.  
     
    * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
    BRIGHTON AROUND 340 PM CDT.  
    COPPOCK AROUND 350 PM CDT.  
    WAYLAND AROUND 355 PM CDT.  
    OLDS AND CRAWFORDSVILLE AROUND 400 PM CDT.  
     
    OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE GERMANVILLE...MERRIMAC...NOBLE  
    AND SWEDESBURG.  
     
    OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BRINTON TIMBER PARK AND MARR PARK.  
     
    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
     
    TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A  
    STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR  
    OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT  
    YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
     
    TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.  
    THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE  
    QUAD CITIES.  
     
     
     
    LAT...LON 4117 9194 4123 9194 4131 9156 4111 9150  
    4105 9194 4116 9197  
    TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 256DEG 24KT 4111 9185  
     
    TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
    HAIL...1.75IN  
     
     
     
    MCCLURE  
     
    CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Our area is under a Severe T-Storm warning. We are located in Stoughton, outlined in the warning.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
DANE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...
NORTHWESTERN GREEN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT

* AT 335 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR SPRING GREEN TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF NEW GLARUS
TO 6 MILES WEST OF MONROE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MADISON...SUN PRAIRIE...FITCHBURG...MIDDLETON...STOUGHTON...
WAUNAKEE...MONROE...VERONA...OREGON...MCFARLAND... MONONA...MOUNT
HOREB...WINDSOR...DEFOREST...COTTAGE GROVE...CROSS PLAINS...
BELLEVILLE...DEERFIELD...NEW GLARUS AND SHOREWOOD HILLS.
Jeff Piotrowski @Jeff_Piotrowski · 2m
Tracking tornados now multiply vortex near Glenvil NE.#newx
Hearing a report there may be a tornado in nebraska

1520. Patrap
1521. sar2401
Quoting Doppler22:
Anyone want to take a guess on which storm will be tornado warned first???

Im thinking the Nebraska cell

Keep an eye on the Florida panhandle near the GA/AL state lines as well. Lots of storms firing on outflow boundaries in the area we had the tornado yesterday.

1522. Patrap
 
262  
WUUS53 KGID 112043 RRA  
SVRGID  
KSC141-112130-  
/O.NEW.KGID.SV.W.0036.140511T2043Z-140511T2130Z/  
 
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE  
343 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
OSBORNE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...  
 
* UNTIL 430 PM CDT  
 
* AT 343 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR NATOMA...OR  
17 MILES NORTHEAST OF EMMERAM...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
 
IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE  
TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
OSBORNE...NATOMA AND ALTON.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN  
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT  
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF ONE IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A  
PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR  
SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.  
 
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A  
BUILDING.  
 
INTENSE THUNDERSTORM LINES CAN PRODUCE BRIEF TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD  
SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT IMMEDIATELY  
LIKELY...IT IS BEST TO MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR  
OF A BUILDING. THIS STORM MAY CAUSE SERIOUS INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT  
PROPERTY DAMAGE.  
 
 
 
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT SUNDAY AFTERNOON  
FOR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.  
 
LAT...LON 3926 9905 3957 9891 3948 9849 3945 9849  
3913 9876 3913 9905  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 202DEG 35KT 3916 9892  
 
HAIL...1.00IN  
WIND...60MPH  
 
 
 
JCB  
 
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Impressive hook on the Nebraska storm
Has the NWS issued a tornado warning yet on the storm near Hastings?
It's been showing a hook for the past 15 minutes.
Quoting 1524. Sfloridacat5:

Has the NWS issued a tornado warning yet on the storm near Hastings?
It's been showing a hook for the past 15 minutes.

nope, no tornado warning yet
1527. Patrap
Echo Tops

1528. beell
Base velocity/Hastings NE cell. Static loop through 3:26PM 3:36PM

Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Has the NWS issued a tornado warning yet on the storm near Hastings?
It's been showing a hook for the past 15 minutes.


Nope. They just re-issued the severe t-storm warning for ping-pong ball size hail and 70 mph winds.
Quoting 1475. MaxWeather:


Yes, it matters

I don't understand why you people think you have to give me a novel long scientific explanation about your prediction.
I don't need it. Just your plain numbers!
#69 for you
15-8-5 is my prediction
This is one scary looking supercell forming just SE of Hastings, NE.

1532. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
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SVR T-STORM WARNING CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL - KLOT 348 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING WICHITA KS - KICT 347 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014
TornadoRaider's chase feed is pretty impressive. You can hear the intense inflow winds that are streaming in the supercell.
1534. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
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SVR T-STORM WARNING PADUCAH KY - KPAH 350 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014
Quoting Astrometeor:


Nope. They just re-issued the severe t-storm warning for ping-pong ball size hail and 70 mph winds.


Unfortunately they probably won't issue a tornado warning until one's on the ground. That's what happened with yesterday's tornado.
Quoting Ameister12:
TornadoRaider's chase feed is pretty impressive. You can hear the intense inflow winds that are streaming in the supercell.


That's the one I've been watching.
1537. Patrap
Quoting 1536. Sfloridacat5:



That's the one I've been watching.

One of the guys just said he saw a tornado in the rain certain. This thing really needs a tornado warning!
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Unfortunately they probably won't issue a tornado warning until one's on the ground. That's what happened with yesterday's tornado.


Yeah, that's what I'm thinking. Hopefully a spotter can get a shot of a funnel (if this thing puts one down) and give the NWS a call.
Can someone tell me why there is not a tornado warning on this cell?? I do not want one issued so I can be right about the storm, but I mean the storm looks very threatening. And there is rotation
1541. Patrap
 
280  
WUUS53 KDDC 112055  
SVRDDC  
KSC025-057-069-119-112200-  
/O.NEW.KDDC.SV.W.0017.140511T2055Z-140511T2200Z/  
 
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS  
355 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
WESTERN CLARK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS...  
SOUTHERN FORD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS...  
SOUTHEASTERN GRAY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS...  
EASTERN MEADE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS...  
 
* UNTIL 500 PM CDT  
 
* AT 354 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 13 MILES  
SOUTHWEST OF ENGLEWOOD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
 
IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO  
ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
MEADE STATE PARK...ENGLEWOOD...MEADE...FOWLER...MINNEOLA...CLA RK  
STATE LAKE...BLOOM AND KINGSDOWN.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A  
BUILDING.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3758 10024 3758 9963 3701 9996 3702 10052  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 209DEG 35KT 3696 10018  
 
HAIL...1.25IN  
WIND...60MPH  
 
 
 
KRUSE  
 
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1542. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
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SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSONVILLE FL - KJAX 455 PM EDT SUN MAY 11 2014
This is like the 3rd report of a tornado I've seen with this cell. Where's the warning!?

Spotter Network Inc %u200F@spotternetwork 1m
08:54PM UTC TOR>-Spotr 2 miles E of CLAY CENTER, NE-Large tornado to our southwest.
Quoting 1543. Ameister12:

This is like the 3rd report of a tornado I've seen with this cell. Where's the warning!?

Spotter Network Inc %u200F@spotternetwork 1m
08:54PM UTC TOR>-Spotr 2 miles E of CLAY CENTER, NE-Large tornado to our southwest.

Looking at the radar presentation it certainly looks like a classic tornado producing supercell.
Quoting Ameister12:
This is like the 3rd report of a tornado I've seen with this cell. Where's the warning!?

Spotter Network Inc %u200F@spotternetwork 1m
08:54PM UTC TOR>-Spotr 2 miles E of CLAY CENTER, NE-Large tornado to our southwest.


Why are they to the NE of the storm? Isn't that like one of the worst spots to be?

Edit: Warning has been issued.
Tornado Warning out
1547. Patrap
 
291  
WFUS53 KGID 112058  
TORGID  
NEC035-059-112130-  
/O.NEW.KGID.TO.W.0009.140511T2058Z-140511T2130Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE  
358 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
NORTHWESTERN FILLMORE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...  
CENTRAL CLAY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...  
 
* UNTIL 430 PM CDT  
 
* AT 357 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER CLAY CENTER...OR 20 MILES EAST OF  
HASTINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
SARONVILLE AROUND 410 PM CDT.  
SUTTON AROUND 415 PM CDT.  
GRAFTON AROUND 430 PM CDT.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A  
VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND  
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 4038 9803 4052 9822 4070 9798 4070 9784  
4058 9761  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 235DEG 27KT 4053 9801  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...1.50IN  
 
 
 
SALTZMAN  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

Shouldn't it be a confirmed tornado?? Several spotters have reported one
1549. Patrap
Tornado Warning on the NE cell.
Tornado warning finally issued!
1552. Patrap
Quoting Doppler22:
Shouldn't it be a confirmed tornado?? Several spotters have reported one


Yeah, that's what I was wondering about. Do they have anyone monitoring twitter? Their feed just has updates being put out on storms.



At 3:59 PM CDT @NWSHastings issues a Tornado Warning til 4:30 PM CDT impacting 3,340 people
1554. Patrap
 
177  
WFUS53 KDMX 112101  
TORDMX  
IAC179-112145-  
/O.NEW.KDMX.TO.W.0008.140511T2101Z-140511T2145Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA  
401 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
WAPELLO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IOWA...  
 
* UNTIL 445 PM CDT  
 
* AT 401 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OTTUMWA...MOVING EAST AT  
25 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO...BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
OTTUMWA...ELDON AND AGENCY.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A  
VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND  
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 4090 9218 4090 9260 4098 9262 4116 9228  
4116 9218  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 249DEG 20KT 4096 9253  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...2.75IN  
 
 
 
BEERENDS  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
1555. Patrap
 
479  
WUUS53 KGID 112101  
SVRGID  
KSC163-112130-  
/O.NEW.KGID.SV.W.0037.140511T2101Z-140511T2130Z/  
 
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE  
401 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHEASTERN ROOKS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...  
 
* UNTIL 430 PM CDT  
 
* AT 400 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHEAST  
OF CODELL...OR 9 MILES NORTH OF EMMERAM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45  
MPH.  
 
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
 
IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE  
TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
CODELL.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN  
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT  
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF ONE IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A  
PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR  
SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.  
 
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A  
BUILDING.  
 
 
 
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT SUNDAY AFTERNOON  
FOR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.  
 
LAT...LON 3915 9921 3931 9912 3929 9905 3913 9905  
3913 9921  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 204DEG 38KT 3909 9912  
 
HAIL...1.25IN  
WIND...60MPH  
 
 
 
JCB  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Quoting Ameister12:
Tornado warning finally issued!


Finally!

1557. Patrap
  •  
    540  
    WUUS53 KLOT 112102  
    SVRLOT  
    ILC007-111-201-112200-  
    /O.NEW.KLOT.SV.W.0009.140511T2102Z-140511T2200Z/  
     
    BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL  
    402 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014  
     
    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A  
     
    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
    BOONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
    WESTERN MCHENRY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...  
    EAST CENTRAL WINNEBAGO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
     
    * UNTIL 500 PM CDT  
     
    * AT 358 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CHERRY  
    VALLEY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.  
     
    HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
     
    SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
     
    IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO  
    ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.  
     
    * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
    BELVIDERE...MARENGO...HARVARD...POPLAR GROVE...CAPRON AND UNION.  
     
    OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED...  
    BOONE COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS...ROCKFORD RIVERHAWKS BASEBALL...  
     
    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
     
    FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A  
    BUILDING.  
     
     
     
    LAT...LON 4224 8842 4216 8887 4228 8902 4250 8871  
    4250 8869  
    TIME...MOT...LOC 2102Z 235DEG 21KT 4224 8894  
     
    HAIL...1.00IN  
    WIND...60MPH  
     
     
     
    BMD  
     
    CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
1558. Patrap
This thing is insane!!!
1560. Patrap

341
WUUS53 KMKX 112103
SVRMKX
WIC039-047-112130-
/O.NEW.KMKX.SV.W.0019.140511T2103Z-140511T2130Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
403 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN GREEN LAKE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...
NORTHWESTERN FOND DU LAC COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT

* AT 403 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER GREEN
LAKE...OR NEAR RIPON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
RIPON AROUND 420 PM CDT.
BERLIN AROUND 430 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
FAIRWATER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.



LAT...LON 4398 8889 4390 8888 4390 8884 4389 8865
4369 8894 4381 8913 4398 8896
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 220DEG 18KT 4382 8897

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH



MBK

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NWS in this area took way too long to issue tornado warning for this storm, which reportedly dropped a large tornado. Haven't seen inflow this large and strong since El Reno EF3 last May. This one is a trouble if this storm can wrap itself more tightly. It's worth noting that this cell is right on warm front moving northward.

1562. sar2401
Quoting Astrometeor:


Yeah, that's what I was wondering about. Do they have anyone monitoring twitter? Their feed just has updates being put out on storms.



At 3:59 PM CDT @NWSHastings issues a Tornado Warning til 4:30 PM CDT impacting 3,340 people

Are these spotters tweeting their observations to Hastings NWS?
1563. Patrap
One can see the Nado, and the Hail shaft easily.
1564. Patrap
 
964  
WUUS53 KGID 112106  
SVRGID  
NEC035-059-081-185-112145-  
/O.NEW.KGID.SV.W.0038.140511T2106Z-140511T2145Z/  
 
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE  
406 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
HAMILTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...  
NORTHWESTERN FILLMORE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...  
SOUTHWESTERN YORK COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...  
NORTHERN CLAY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...  
 
* UNTIL 445 PM CDT  
 
* AT 404 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR  
SARONVILLE...OR 20 MILES EAST OF HASTINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35  
MPH.  
 
HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
 
IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT  
CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO  
MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
YORK...AURORA...SUTTON...HENDERSON...HAMPTON...MCC OOL JUNCTION...  
GILTNER...BRADSHAW...HORDVILLE...STOCKHAM AND LUSHTON.  
 
A TORNADO WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CDT FOR  
NORTHWESTERN FILLMORE COUNTY AND CENTRAL CLAY COUNTY.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A  
BUILDING.  
 
 
 
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT SUNDAY AFTERNOON  
FOR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.  
 
LAT...LON 4053 9796 4068 9788 4068 9826 4111 9788  
4108 9783 4105 9783 4104 9777 4080 9739  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2104Z 225DEG 30KT 4061 9800  
 
HAIL...1.50IN  
WIND...70MPH  
 
 
 
BRYANT  
 
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Getting pretty worried about Ottumwa. My grandmother is from there, and one of my uncles still lives there.
Quoting 1510. BahaHurican:

Max, you can add mine: 10-5-2. I'm thinking we are likely to see a fair amount of activity in the EPac early on, which usually keeps ATL activity low in the MJJ period, but also a rather slow OND period as el nino conditions take hold.

I'm going to be watching the CPac with interest again this year, and wouldn't be surprised to see a couple of spectacular cyclones in that area this season.

I have you in now!
thanks
Actually, maybe that cell is wrapping itself with warm air from the front. Things could get REALLY interesting in a second or two...
Quoting sar2401:

Are these spotters tweeting their observations to Hastings NWS?


Yup. Hastings had some words to say to them.

awesomeman5467 %u200F@awesomeman5467 25m

@NWSHastings Two storm chasers reported a tornado on the ground. @TwisterChasers and @Jeff_Piotrowski

----

Charlie Vincent %u200F@cvince75 15m

@awesomeman5467 @NWSHastings @TwisterChasers @Jeff_Piotrowski that cell isn't tornado warned.

---

NWS Hastings %u200F@NWSHastings 1m

@cvince75 @awesomeman5467 @TwisterChasers @Jeff_Piotrowski Locations of reports and times are absolutely necessary. Thanks!
1569. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
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Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING DODGE CITY KS - KDDC 409 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING LINCOLN IL - KILX 409 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014
Intense couplet!
1571. Patrap
1572. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSONVILLE FL - KJAX 509 PM EDT SUN MAY 11 2014
That cell looks primed to produce a very significant tornado.
1574. sar2401
Quoting Astrometeor:


Yup. Hastings had some words to say to them.

awesomeman5467 ‏@awesomeman5467 25m

@NWSHastings Two storm chasers reported a tornado on the ground. @TwisterChasers and @Jeff_Piotrowski

----

Charlie Vincent ‏@cvince75 15m

@awesomeman5467 @NWSHastings @TwisterChasers @Jeff_Piotrowski that cell isn't tornado warned.

---

NWS Hastings ‏@NWSHastings 1m

@cvince75 @awesomeman5467 @TwisterChasers @Jeff_Piotrowski Locations of reports and times are absolutely necessary. Thanks!

Wow! What more did Hastings need to issue a warning? YouTube videos? Geez....
1575. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING QUAD CITIES IA IL - KDVN 410 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014
Quoting 1496. VAbeachhurricanes:



I got 12/5/2


thanks VA!
#75 in my list
1577. sar2401
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Actually, maybe that cell is wrapping itself with warm air from the front. Things could get REALLY interesting in a second or two...

Looks like Sutton is about to get hit.
Sutton, NE is in a big trouble.

Quoting 1530. Tarpville:

15-8-5 is my prediction

got you in
1580. Patrap
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 0144
– Valid until: 05/12/2014 0300Z
– States affected: IL IN WI LM
– Issued: 05/11/2014 at 2005Z
TORNADO 0143
– Valid until: 05/12/2014 0300Z
– States affected: KS OK TX
– Issued: 05/11/2014 at 1940Z
TORNADO 0142
– Valid until: 05/12/2014 0300Z
– States affected: IA KS MO NE
– Issued: 05/11/2014 at 1920Z
TORNADO 0141
– Valid until: 05/12/2014 0000Z
– States affected: IA IL
– Issued: 05/11/2014 at 1655Z
Quoting sar2401:

Wow! What more did Hastings need to issue a warning? YouTube videos? Geez....


They said it sar...locations and times. Just saying on your feed "Ooo..look a tornado!" isn't good enough. They need to know where and at what time and what direction you're looking at. Obviously, no one relayed any of this to the Hastings, NE NWS.
1582. sar2401
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Sutton, NE is in a big trouble.


Looks like a debris ball in the SE quadrant...
1583. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING QUAD CITIES IA IL - KDVN 414 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING LINCOLN IL - KILX 414 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING INDIANAPOLIS IN - KIND 514 PM EDT SUN MAY 11 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING QUAD CITIES IA IL - KDVN 413 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014
1584. sar2401
Quoting Astrometeor:


They said it sar...locations and times. Just saying on your feed "Ooo..look a tornado!" isn't good enough. They need to know where and at what time and what direction you're looking at. Obviously, no one relayed any of this to the Hastings, NE NWS.

I understand, but there was only one cell they could have been looking at, and Hastings was looking at the same cell on radar. It's not clear to me what the downside was of issuing the warning. That being said, it would be nice if chasers would learn to follow a few rules...
PDS Tornado warning for Sutton!

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN FILLMORE AND NORTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTIES...

AT 409 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS
LOCATED OVER SARONVILLE...OR 25 MILES EAST OF HASTINGS...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.


THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SUTTON AROUND 415 PM CDT.
GRAFTON AROUND 430 PM CDT.

PEOPLE IN SUTTON NEED TO BE IN THEIR STORM SHELTERS NOW!
Hastings Twitter Feed with Replies

Looks like the chasers are getting a hang of this, now, lol.
1587. Patrap
Very intense storm. These are the type that produce long track tornadoes, nothing but favorable environment in front of it.
1589. Patrap
 
180  
WUUS53 KGID 112119  
SVRGID  
KSC089-123-141-163-183-NEC061-181-112200-  
/O.NEW.KGID.SV.W.0039.140511T2119Z-140511T2200Z/  
 
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE  
419 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
WESTERN MITCHELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...  
SMITH COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...  
EASTERN ROOKS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...  
WESTERN JEWELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...  
OSBORNE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...  
SOUTHWESTERN WEBSTER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...  
SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...  
 
* UNTIL 500 PM CDT  
 
* AT 418 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE  
EXTENDING FROM NEAR INAVALE TO NEAR HARLAN TO NEAR NATOMA...MOVING  
NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
 
IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE  
TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
SMITH CENTER...OSBORNE...RED CLOUD...DOWNS...CAWKER CITY...  
NATOMA...LEBANON...TIPTON...BURR OAK...WOODSTON...GAYLORD...  
ALTON...PORTIS...ESBON...RIVERTON...IONIA...ATHOL. ..HARLAN...CEDAR  
AND INAVALE.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN  
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT  
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF ONE IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A  
PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR  
SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.  
 
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A  
BUILDING.  
 
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO  
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.  
 
 
 
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT SUNDAY AFTERNOON  
FOR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.  
 
LAT...LON 3952 9911 3957 9909 3957 9907 3962 9907  
4013 9886 4026 9860 3982 9828 3922 9846  
3922 9849 3913 9849 3913 9911  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 228DEG 57KT 4013 9866 3965 9873 3923 9899  
 
HAIL...1.25IN  
WIND...60MPH  
 
 
 
JCB  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
1591. Patrap
1592. sar2401
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
411 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

NEC035-059-112130-
/O.CON.KGID.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-140511T2130Z/
FILLMORE NE-CLAY NE-
411 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN FILLMORE AND NORTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTIES...

AT 409 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS
LOCATED OVER SARONVILLE...OR 25 MILES EAST OF HASTINGS...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SUTTON AROUND 415 PM CDT.
GRAFTON AROUND 430 PM CDT.

PEOPLE IN SUTTON NEED TO BE IN THEIR STORM SHELTERS NOW!
1593. Patrap
 
445  
WFUS53 KGID 112120  
TORGID  
NEC035-059-081-185-112145-  
/O.NEW.KGID.TO.W.0010.140511T2120Z-140511T2145Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE  
420 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHEASTERN HAMILTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...  
NORTHWESTERN FILLMORE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...  
SOUTHERN YORK COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...  
NORTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...  
 
* UNTIL 445 PM CDT  
 
* AT 418 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER SUTTON...OR 21  
MILES SOUTHWEST OF YORK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...  
GRAFTON AROUND 425 PM CDT.  
HENDERSON AND LUSHTON AROUND 435 PM CDT.  
MCCOOL JUNCTION AND BRADSHAW AROUND 445 PM CDT.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A  
BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY  
BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR  
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT  
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 4054 9774 4063 9799 4095 9781 4074 9739  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 214DEG 27KT 4064 9786  
 
TORNADO...OBSERVED  
HAIL...1.50IN  
 
 
 
SALTZMAN  
 
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Tim Jones ‏@extremewinds 39s
@NWSHastings just had a brief funnel by sutton. Have video
Haven't seen at least red TVS since Washington, IL tornado (I think). Couplet is recycling now so it's not as intense as it was a moment ago, but it'll get strong again in another scan.

My radar never showed a tornado emergency...? All it showed was a PDS warning
1597. sar2401
This is weird. Hastings just issued this updated warningand dropped the PDS language.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
420 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN HAMILTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
NORTHWESTERN FILLMORE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
SOUTHERN YORK COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
NORTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 418 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER SUTTON...OR 21
MILES SOUTHWEST OF YORK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
GRAFTON AROUND 425 PM CDT.
HENDERSON AND LUSHTON AROUND 435 PM CDT.
MCCOOL JUNCTION AND BRADSHAW AROUND 445 PM CDT
1598. Patrap
1599. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
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SVR T-STORM WARNING MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI - KMKX 423 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSONVILLE FL - KJAX 523 PM EDT SUN MAY 11 2014
Quoting 1596. Doppler22:

My radar never showed a tornado emergency...? All it showed was a PDS warning

Everybody on Twitter was saying Tornado Emergency, but the actual warning is a PDS.
Quoting 1600. Ameister12:


Everybody on Twitter was saying Tornado Emergency, but the actual warning is a PDS.


That explain it then...
1603. Patrap
 
939  
WUUS53 KGID 112124  
SVRGID  
KSC089-NEC001-035-129-181-112215-  
/O.NEW.KGID.SV.W.0040.140511T2124Z-140511T2215Z/  
 
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE  
424 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
NORTH CENTRAL JEWELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...  
WEBSTER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...  
ADAMS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...  
CLAY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...  
WESTERN NUCKOLLS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...  
 
* UNTIL 515 PM CDT  
 
* AT 424 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GLENVIL...OR  
NEAR HASTINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
 
IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT  
WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
HASTINGS...HARVARD...BLUE HILL...CLAY CENTER...JUNIATA...  
FAIRFIELD...GLENVIL...LAWRENCE...BLADEN...ROSELAND ...GUIDE ROCK...  
TRUMBULL...BURR OAK...INLAND...AYR...DEWEESE...SARONVILLE...  
COWLES...HANSEN AND ROSEMONT.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A  
BUILDING.  
 
 
 
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT SUNDAY AFTERNOON  
FOR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.  
 
LAT...LON 3982 9830 4024 9861 4022 9869 4070 9851  
4068 9786  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 237DEG 50KT 4051 9835  
 
HAIL...1.50IN  
WIND...60MPH  
 
 
 
BRYANT  
 
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Several minutes ago on a chaser's stream via Twitter.

1605. Patrap
-
1607. sar2401
Quoting Astrometeor:
Hastings NWS idea of an informative graphic.

Yeah, great job. Hastings only acknowledged one chaser report (didn't say which one) of a "brief touchdown" on spotter chat at exactly the same time they issued the warning - 4:06 pm. I guess they were waiting for a good location. The chasers out there do need to learn that, if they want to actually help, they can't do the Twitter equivalent of yelling "It's a twister!".
Confirmed tornado in iowa near Donnellson
1609. beell
Dodge City, KS Radar. Static Loop. Couple of cells south of the radar site.

New (intense) rotation intensifying north of Grafton, NE.
Quoting sar2401:
This is weird. Hastings just issued this updated warningand dropped the PDS language.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
420 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN HAMILTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
NORTHWESTERN FILLMORE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
SOUTHERN YORK COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
NORTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 418 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER SUTTON...OR 21
MILES SOUTHWEST OF YORK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
GRAFTON AROUND 425 PM CDT.
HENDERSON AND LUSHTON AROUND 435 PM CDT.
MCCOOL JUNCTION AND BRADSHAW AROUND 445 PM CDT


I'm really holding my true feelings back on how the NWS handled the cell near Hastings.

I had never seen a cell with such a well developed hook go so long without a tornado warning being issued.
1612. sar2401
Quoting Doppler22:
Confirmed tornado in iowa

Where?
1613. Patrap
Quoting 1612. sar2401:


Where?

near Donnellson (SE Iowa)
1615. Patrap

379
WFUS53 KDVN 112126
TORDVN
IAC111-112200-
/O.NEW.KDVN.TO.W.0012.140511T2126Z-140511T2200Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
426 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
LEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IOWA...

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 422 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR DONNELLSON...
AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO
ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS
WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
FRANKLIN AROUND 435 PM CDT.
WEST POINT AND FORT MADISON AROUND 450 PM CDT.
DENMARK AROUND 500 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE SAWYER...FORT MADISON
MUNICIPAL ARPT AND SOUTH AUGUSTA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.



LAT...LON 4063 9171 4081 9146 4081 9140 4079 9137
4080 9135 4077 9131 4077 9130 4076 9128
4075 9125 4070 9119 4051 9157
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 232DEG 19KT 4062 9154

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...1.75IN



MCCLURE

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1617. Patrap
 
366  
WFUS53 KIND 112132  
TORIND  
INC139-112200-  
/O.NEW.KIND.TO.W.0007.140511T2132Z-140511T2200Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN  
532 PM EDT SUN MAY 11 2014  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
CENTRAL RUSH COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 600 PM EDT  
 
* AT 528 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR RUSHVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE  
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS  
LIKELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL RUSH  
COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...GLENWOOD.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A  
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR  
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT  
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3962 8530 3960 8551 3971 8555 3975 8536  
3975 8530  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 255DEG 21KT 3966 8547  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...<.75IN  
 
 
 
RYAN  
 
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(ooo) (ah)



Hope everyone stay safe.
1619. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
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SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSONVILLE FL - KJAX 534 PM EDT SUN MAY 11 2014
1620. sar2401
Quoting Doppler22:

near Donnellson (SE Iowa)

Looks like it just got cancelled.
1621. Patrap
1622. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
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SVR T-STORM WARNING CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL - KLOT 436 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 201
Quoting 1620. sar2401:


Looks like it just got cancelled.

Nope, still there
1624. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
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FLASH FLOOD WARNING DODGE CITY KS - KDDC 436 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014
1625. Patrap
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN FILLMORE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
SOUTHEASTERN YORK COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT

* AT 438 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MCCOOL
JUNCTION
...OR 11 MILES SOUTH OF YORK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.
1628. Patrap
 
777  
WUUS53 KGID 112143  
SVRGID  
NEC035-081-185-112230-  
/O.NEW.KGID.SV.W.0041.140511T2143Z-140511T2230Z/  
 
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE  
443 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
HAMILTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...  
YORK COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...  
NORTHERN CLAY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...  
 
* UNTIL 530 PM CDT  
 
* AT 442 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HENDERSON...  
OR 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF YORK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
 
IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT  
CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO  
MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.  
 
A TORNADO WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN YORK  
COUNTY UNTIL 515 PM CDT.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
YORK...AURORA...HENDERSON...HAMPTON...GILTNER...BR ADSHAW...WACO...  
BENEDICT...MARQUETTE...STOCKHAM...LUSHTON AND THAYER.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A  
BUILDING.  
 
 
 
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT SUNDAY AFTERNOON  
FOR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.  
 
LAT...LON 4090 9738 4070 9778 4070 9782 4069 9782  
4067 9785 4069 9826 4070 9828 4073 9828  
4105 9797 4105 9751 4096 9737  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 223DEG 36KT 4078 9775  
 
HAIL...1.50IN  
WIND...70MPH  
 
 
 
BRYANT  
 
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1629. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
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SVR T-STORM WARNING QUAD CITIES IA IL - KDVN 446 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING DODGE CITY KS - KDDC 446 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSONVILLE FL - KJAX 545 PM EDT SUN MAY 11 2014
7 minutes before warning:

Link
1631. Patrap
Since 1:51 CDT

College of DuPage Meteorology
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1632. sar2401
Quoting Doppler22:

Nope, still there

I saw it after I posted. My spotter chat is kind of wonky today, with warning links not bringing up the correct warnings.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
449 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN SALINE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...
SEWARD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT

* AT 449 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WACO...OR 7
MILES EAST OF YORK...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM.

HAZARD...BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE SEVERELY INJURED.
EXPECT SHATTERED WINDOWS...EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO
ROOFS...SIDING AND VEHICLES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SEWARD...MILFORD...FRIEND...UTICA...BEAVER CROSSING...
STAPLEHURST...GARLAND...PLEASANT DALE...BEE...GOEHNER...CORDOVA...
BLUE RIVER STATE RECREATION AREA AND TAMORA.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 366 AND
388.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD
MOVE TO A SHELTER...INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
1634. sar2401
Quoting Astrometeor:
7 minutes before warning:

Link

Hastings shouldn't have to ask the time. A picture of your video cam is not what they need. If they are trying to help, every tweet to the NWS should have the date, time, and lat/long coordinates attached. It's not that hard to do.
1635. sar2401
Not good....

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0566
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0446 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SE NEB

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 142...

VALID 112146Z - 112315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 142 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT WITH LEAD SUPERCELLS ALONG WARM
FRONT IN SE NEB...WITH LONG-TRACK/DAMAGING TORNADOES POSSIBLE THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...THE LEAD SUPERCELL NOW ENTERING NW FILLMORE AND YORK
COUNTIES IN SE NEB WILL LIKELY TRACK ALONG THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE BOUNDARY
LIFTING NWD IN SW IA/SE NEB...SUCH THAT THE SUPERCELL WILL BEGIN TO
ENCOUNTER A MORE FAVORABLE TORNADO ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY
N OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO WARM/MOISTEN.
THE ORIENTATION OF THE WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN LARGELY PARALLEL TO
THE STORM MOTION...WITH THE SUPERCELL EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN A
FAVORABLE ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MOISTURE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THIS WILL SUPPORT AN ENHANCED RISK OF
LONG-TRACK/DAMAGING TORNADOES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...POTENTIALLY
REACHING LINCOLN BY 23Z AND OMAHA/AREAS IMMEDIATELY TO THE S AROUND
00Z.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY WILL BE THE DEGREE OF STORM
INTERACTIONS/INTERFERENCE WITH NEW STORM FORMATION AHEAD OF THE
INITIAL SUPERCELL...AND OTHER STORMS NOT FAR BEHIND.
Storm near Ashland Kansas looks suspicious
Reed's feed in going in and out but he's been watching a large stove pipe tornado.
If the Supercell in NE stays discrete, it could be trouble for Lincoln, and possibly even Omaha.
1640. sar2401
Quoting Doppler22:
Storm near Ashland Kansas looks suspicious

They are starting to look suspicious. With two big population centers (Lincoln and Omaha) under the gun, this could be a really bad situation developing.
AviWxChasers on TVN are tracking the tornado as well. They are south of the storm, so they should have a clear shot on the twister.
1642. beell
Quoting 1634. sar2401:


Hastings shouldn't have to ask the time. A picture of your video cam is not what they need. If they are trying to help, every tweet to the NWS should have the date, time, and lat/long coordinates attached. It's not that hard to do.


FNG's
Large tornado on the ground heading for Cordova, NE. Might pass just north of the town, but it's going to be really close.
Reed's putting out probes at this moment. "Big Stove Pipe!"
1645. Patrap
Quoting 1644. Sfloridacat5:

Reed's putting out probes at this moment. "Big Stove Pipe!"

They also mentioned that it had a horizontal vortex.
How not to chase.

1648. Patrap
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SVR T-STORM WARNING CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL - KLOT 515 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING HASTINGS NE - KGID 515 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING LINCOLN IL - KILX 515 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING WICHITA KS - KICT 515 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
RUSH COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...

* UNTIL 900 PM EDT

* AT 612 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA. UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN PORTIONS OF RUSH
COUNTY SINCE 5 PM. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 7 PM.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
RUSHVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.
Quoting 1647. TropicalAnalystwx13:

How not to chase.



You'd think they learn after May 31, 2013.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
505 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0502 PM TORNADO 1 NW CORDOVA 40.73N 97.36W
05/11/2014 SEWARD NE LAW ENFORCEMENT
1652. sar2401
Quoting beell:


FNG's

So true. I guess this is what happens when you get 50 chasers on a storm.
1653. sar2401
Quoting Astrometeor:
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
505 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0502 PM TORNADO 1 NW CORDOVA 40.73N 97.36W
05/11/2014 SEWARD NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

There's considerable damage being reported in Sutton and Cordova. The tornado now looks like it will pass through the northern part of Lincoln.
Quoting 1638. CaribBoy:


Ya'll getting any rain, Caribboy?
Quoting 1654. BahaHurican:

Ya'll getting any rain, Caribboy?



We got some yesterday (up to 2"), and past several days (totals for the week range from about 2 to 5" on the island) but nothing significant fell today. Lol I wouldn't say NO to more thunder and rains!

636 PM EDT SUN MAY 11 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN CHAMPAIGN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO...
NORTHWESTERN CLARK COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO...

* UNTIL 700 PM EDT.

* AT 631 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A TORNADO LOCATED NEAR STATE ROUTE 41 AT STATE ROUTE
235...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SPRINGFIELD...

IN ADDITION...DONNELSVILLE...NORTH HAMPTON...DIALTON...SNYDERVILLE...
LAWRENCEVILLE AND TREMONT CITY ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS
THUNDERSTORM.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE...
I-70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 52 AND 57...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...GO TO OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/ILN AND
SUBMIT YOUR REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.
1657. sar2401
This tornado must look far worse on radar than it is on the ground. Very few reports from law enforcement or EMA of significant damage so far.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
540 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN SEWARD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...
NORTHWESTERN LANCASTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

* AT 539 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF
SEWARD...OR 23 MILES EAST OF YORK...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SEWARD AROUND 550 PM CDT.
GARLAND AROUND 605 PM CDT.
NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN AROUND 630 PM CDT.


OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE PAWNEE
STATE RECREATION AREA...RAYMOND...BRANCHED OAK STATE RECREATION AREA
AND MALCOLM.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 375 AND
392.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.


&&

LAT...LON 4079 9721 4095 9719 4103 9684 4100 9676
4088 9674 4082 9681
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 255DEG 21KT 4083 9714

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...2.50IN
1659. sar2401
Sorry, Astro, posted the warning the same time you did.
Reed Timmer apparently aborted an intercept because the tornado was too violent for his vehicle.
Quoting sar2401:
Sorry, Astro, posted the warning the same time you did.


You're fine, sar.

I did bold more than you did. :p
1662. Patrap
Quoting 1660. Ameister12:

Reed Timmer apparently aborted an intercept because the tornado was too violent for his vehicle.


Best decision in his storied Life.

Many are in the death zone.
Quoting 1660. Ameister12:

Reed Timmer apparently aborted an intercept because the tornado was too violent for his vehicle.


He also lost his phone to tornado... must have been one violent intercept.
1664. Patrap
Look How many are in the Dead Zone

1665. sar2401
This is the way to report if you're a chaser -

Time: 2014-05-11 21:07 UTC
Event: TORNADO
Source: STORM CHASER
Remark: WIDESPREAD DAMAGE BETWEEN JUST SOUTHEAST OF SARONVILLE TO 2 MILES WEST OF SUTTON. NUMEROUS OUTBUILDINGS WERE STREWN ACROSS THE HIGHWAY. A GRAIN BIN WAS BLOWN DOWN. A FEED MILL WAS SEVERELY DAMAGED. POWER POLES ARE DOWN FROM 1 MILE SOUTHEAST OF SARONVILLE TO 2 MILES WEST OF SUTTON. HIGHWAY 6 HAS BEEN CLOSED BETWEEN SARONVILLE AND SUTTON DUE TO STREWN DEBRIS.
Not sure if there's still a tornado on the ground, but it's definitely a mean looking storm.
1667. sar2401
Quoting Ameister12:
Reed Timmer apparently aborted an intercept because the tornado was too violent for his vehicle.

Wait...the Dominator 2 was unable to get in the heart of the tornado? I'm shocked...
Quoting Patrap:
Look How many are in the Dead Zone



"Yup Bob, I can see it alright. Funny thing is, it's just getting bigger and bigger. Not moving left or right."

(Mock talk)
1669. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL - KLOT 550 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING DODGE CITY KS - KDDC 549 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING WICHITA KS - KICT 548 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING HASTINGS NE - KGID 545 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL - KLOT 544 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING DODGE CITY KS - KDDC 540 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014
1670. Patrap

Quoting 1668. Astrometeor:



"Yup Bob, I can see it alright. Funny thing is, it's just getting bigger and bigger. Not moving left or right."

(Mock talk)


"Musta dissipated Jim as the Screen here shows nada."
Is that fog ahead?



1671. Patrap
Dual along the Line TVS signatures.



1672. Patrap
Note the fingers of heavy convection coming out the cell.




MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0569
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0549 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IL...SRN/CNTRL INDIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 112249Z - 112345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STRONG STORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS SERN IL/SWRN INDIANA INTO
CNTRL INDIANA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS SEVERE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...CLUSTER OF STRONG-SEVERE MULTI-CELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
PROPAGATING NNEWD AT ROUGHLY 30KT. THIS ACTIVITY HAS GRADUALLY
DEVELOPED A COLD POOL AND THIS APPEARS TO BE AIDING NWD MOVEMENT AS
IT SPREADS ACROSS SERN IL/SWRN INDIANA. WHILE LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY LATEST WDSII
MESH DATA SUGGESTS LARGE HAIL IS OCCURRING WITH THE STRONGEST
UPDRAFTS...PARTICULARLY CUMBERLAND COUNTY IL. GREATEST RISK FOR
ROBUST UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..DARROW/THOMPSON.. 05/11/2014


ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...ILX...

LAT...LON 38708650 39368841 40228762 39778517 38978523 38708650
1674. Patrap
 
829  
WUUS53 KIND 112256  
SVRIND  
INC093-101-112345-  
/O.NEW.KIND.SV.W.0022.140511T2256Z-140511T2345Z/  
 
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN  
656 PM EDT SUN MAY 11 2014  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHWESTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...  
SOUTHERN MARTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 745 PM EDT  
 
* AT 653 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTH OF  
SHOALS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
 
IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO  
ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
SHOALS...LACY...ROLAND...HURON...WILLIAMS...MITCHE LL AND TUNNELTON.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A  
BUILDING.  
 
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING  
IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING  
KILLS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO  
BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.  
 
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO  
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS!  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3856 8692 3865 8692 3884 8667 3878 8642  
3869 8642 3868 8667 3866 8668 3855 8667  
3852 8676 3852 8683 3851 8685  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2256Z 241DEG 18KT 3858 8677  
 
HAIL...1.00IN  
WIND...60MPH  
 
 
 
RYAN  
 
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1675. sar2401
Now some damage reports are starting to come in -

Time: 2014-05-11 21:21 UTC
Event: TSTM WND DMG
Source: EMERGENCY MNGR
Remark: EM REPORTS MANY PIVOTS AND POWER POLLS DOWN BETWEEN CLAY CENTER AND SUTTON. SUTTON HAS SEVERE DAMAGE TO SOUTH SIDE OF TOWN AND DOWNTOWN AREA. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.
1676. Grothar
1677. Patrap


1678. Patrap
 
683  
WFUS53 KOAX 112305  
TOROAX  
NEC159-112330-  
/O.NEW.KOAX.TO.W.0004.140511T2305Z-140511T2330Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA  
605 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHWESTERN SEWARD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...  
 
* UNTIL 630 PM CDT  
 
* AT 605 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER BEAVER CROSSING...OR 14 MILES SOUTHEAST OF  
YORK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF  
SOUTHWESTERN SEWARD COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...  
GOEHNER AND CORDOVA.  
 
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 366 AND  
377.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A  
VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND  
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 4082 9736 4092 9713 4072 9709 4070 9730  
4070 9737  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2305Z 241DEG 31KT 4079 9733  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...1.00IN  
 
 
 
BOUSTEAD/MAYES  
 
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1679. Patrap
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
608 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SAUNDERS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
NORTHEASTERN SEWARD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...
NORTHERN LANCASTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...
SOUTHEASTERN BUTLER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT

* AT 607 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER
VALPARAISO...OR 18 MILES NORTHWEST OF LINCOLN...MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH.

THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM.

HAZARD...80 MPH WIND GUSTS AND TWO INCH HAIL.


SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED. EXPECT
CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES.
EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTHERN LINCOLN...SEWARD...WAHOO...WAVERLY...VALPARAISO... MEAD...
WESTON...GARLAND...DWIGHT...BEE...CERESCO...MALCOL M...RAYMOND...
DAVEY...ITHACA...MALMO...COLON AND BRANCHED OAK STATE RECREATION
AREA.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
HIGHWAY 77 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILEMARKERS 71 AND 108 .
HIGHWAY 92 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 438 AND 459 ...AND
BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 438 AND 456 .
INTERSTATE 80 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 401 AND 412.
1681. Patrap
1682. Patrap
 
748  
WFUS53 KDDC 112312  
TORDDC  
KSC145-112345-  
/O.NEW.KDDC.TO.W.0002.140511T2312Z-140511T2345Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS  
612 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
EASTERN PAWNEE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...  
 
* UNTIL 645 PM CDT  
 
* AT 610 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR GARFIELD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE  
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS  
LIKELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
LARNED AROUND 620 PM CDT.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A  
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR  
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT  
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3813 9896 3803 9922 3816 9934 3835 9912  
3835 9903 3833 9902 3827 9902 3826 9891  
3818 9891  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 225DEG 38KT 3814 9920  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...1.75IN  
 
 
 
SUGDEN  
 
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1683. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING DODGE CITY KS - KDDC 612 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014
Kansas looks more interesting than Nebraska to me at this point. Storms there are much more discrete in nature and may produce several tornadoes once LCL heights lower and the LLJ strengths in the next few hours.
1685. Patrap
 
708  
WFUS53 KOAX 112319  
TOROAX  
NEC109-155-120000-  
/O.NEW.KOAX.TO.W.0005.140511T2319Z-140512T0000Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA  
619 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
SOUTH CENTRAL SAUNDERS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...  
NORTHERN LANCASTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...  
 
* UNTIL 700 PM CDT  
 
* AT 619 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHEAST  
OF VALPARAISO...OR 12 MILES NORTH OF LINCOLN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT  
30 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF  
SOUTH CENTRAL SAUNDERS AND NORTHERN LANCASTER COUNTIES...INCLUDING  
THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...DAVEY...RAYMOND...BRANCHED OAK STATE  
RECREATION AREA...ITHACA AND CERESCO.  
 
THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 77 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILEMARKERS 81 AND 87 .  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A  
BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY  
BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR  
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT  
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 4089 9685 4101 9690 4120 9658 4116 9646  
4101 9648  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2319Z 237DEG 26KT 4099 9677  
 
TORNADO...OBSERVED  
HAIL...<.75IN  
 
 
 
BOUSTEAD/MAYES  
 
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1686. Patrap
1687. vis0
RIGHT CLICK open in new page for a reClue as to ml-d AOI.
...EG adjusted...
1688. Patrap
1689. Grothar
They are firing up all over



1691. sar2401
Quoting Grothar:
They are firing up all over




They are indeed. Did you and Mrs. Grothar have good time?
SSEC put up a new toy, Zoomable Super Rapid Scan
it seems the mid upper level system near the mona passage is slowly rolling west the models has dropped it for tropical development
1694. Patrap


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0570
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0623 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...SWRN IA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 142...

VALID 112323Z - 120030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 142 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES FROM NEAR LINCOLN NEB
TOWARD OMAHA INTO SWRN IA. AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO THREAT WILL BE
PRESENT WITH SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF THE LONG-LIVED
TORNADIC STORM.

DISCUSSION...AT 2315Z...A LONG-LIVED TORNADIC SUPERCELL WAS IN NRN
LANCASTER COUNTY NEBRASKA JUST NORTH OF LINCOLN. THIS STORM HAS
EVOLVED AN HP-SUPERCELL STRUCTURE WITH SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ON ITS REAR FLANK. THIS STORM EVOLUTION CASTS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE TORNADO THREAT AS IT
MOVES ENEWD...BUT IT REMAINS IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS IT
MOVES ALONG A WARM FRONT WHICH HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY TO THE
SOUTH OF OMAHA. MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG COMBINED WITH O-1 KM SRH OF
300-400 M2/S2 WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF DAMAGING
TORNADOES WITH THIS CELL AS IT APPROACHES OMAHA BY 00Z AND MOVES
INTO SWRN IA THEREAFTER.

FURTHER TO THE WEST...ADDITIONAL SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT AND WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN A
SIMILAR FASHION...POSING AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO THREAT NEAR LINCOLN
BY 00Z. VERY LARGE HAIL AND SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE CELLS IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO RISK.

..DEAN.. 05/11/2014


ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...GID...

LAT...LON 40809807 41189787 41429696 41629597 41709514 41649460
41489427 41329407 41069397 40859415 40629451 40519517
40499581 40429634 40409692 40389710 40809807
*Facepalm* When will they learn...

Brett Adair ‏@AlaStormTracker 55m
One chaser overrun by the tornado....just got the phone call. They are okay, but can't release information now. Video was rolling... :/
1696. Patrap
Quoting 1695. Ameister12:

*Facepalm* When will they learn...

Brett Adair ‏@AlaStormTracker 55m
One chaser overrun by the tornado....just got the phone call. They are okay, but can't release information now. Video was rolling... :/


It was bound to happen in that situ..

Hope all escaped unscathed.

Maybe call Mom and check in too.

Quoting 1695. Ameister12:

*Facepalm* When will they learn...

Brett Adair ‏@AlaStormTracker 55m
One chaser overrun by the tornado....just got the phone call. They are okay, but can't release information now. Video was rolling... :/

I dont expect the phenomenon to end anytime soon.
It might be trying to wrap up. I'm a bit nervous to see what the new scan shows.

Edit: Still very broad on the latest scan.
1699. pcola57
Quoting 1692. nrtiwlnvragn:

SSEC put up a new toy, Zoomable Super Rapid Scan


Very cool tool nrtiwlnvragn..
Thanks for the share..
1700. Patrap
1701. sar2401
Quoting Ameister12:
*Facepalm* When will they learn...

Brett Adair ‏@AlaStormTracker 55m
One chaser overrun by the tornado....just got the phone call. They are okay, but can't release information now. Video was rolling... :/

At least they have video of their near-death experience. I'll bet they were screaming big time in this one...
WOWT news just reported "90% of the structures in Cordova have been damaged."
1703. Patrap
 
161  
WUUS53 KGID 112345  
SVRGID  
NEC059-169-120000-  
/O.NEW.KGID.SV.W.0047.140511T2345Z-140512T0000Z/  
 
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE  
645 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
NORTHEASTERN THAYER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...  
SOUTHEASTERN FILLMORE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...  
 
* UNTIL 700 PM CDT  
 
* AT 645 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR  
ALEXANDRIA...OR 34 MILES NORTH OF BELLEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT  
45 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
 
IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE  
TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
ALEXANDRIA...OHIOWA AND GILEAD.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN  
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT  
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF ONE IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A  
PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR  
SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.  
 
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A  
BUILDING.  
 
 
 
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT SUNDAY AFTERNOON  
FOR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.  
 
LAT...LON 4014 9741 4029 9759 4030 9759 4049 9737  
4017 9737  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2345Z 227DEG 38KT 4029 9743  
 
HAIL...1.00IN  
WIND...60MPH  
 
 
 
JCB  
 
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1704. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
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Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING WILMINGTON OH - KILN 748 PM EDT SUN MAY 11 2014
1705. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
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SVR T-STORM WARNING DODGE CITY KS - KDDC 649 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014
FLASH FLOOD WARNING OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA - KOAX 649 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 201
Looks like the mother of all Sundays for Nebraska tornadoes.
Quoting 1698. Ameister12:

It might be trying to wrap up. I'm a bit nervous to see what the new scan shows.

Edit: Still very broad on the latest scan.

Very broad, but also pretty low to the ground. It is interesting that it's still got such a large circulation so low to the ground after being rain-wrapped this long.
1708. sar2401
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Very broad, but also pretty low to the ground. It is interesting that it's still got such a large circulation so low to the ground after being rain-wrapped this long.

It looks like this is headed directly for the NWS office and radar in Valley. I hope this thing misses it.
Sorry to ask this question, but does anyone have a link to the live stream of the stormchasers near this storm?

EDIT:

I found this: http://tvnweather.com/live
Been out a short while... Any significant damage in Cordova/Beaver Crossing and I heard a town called Larned in KS was hit...
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
658 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN SALINE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...
NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 657 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR WESTERN...OR
25 MILES WEST OF BEATRICE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
DE WITT AROUND 720 PM CDT.
WILBER AROUND 725 PM CDT.
CRETE AROUND 730 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
SWANTON...11 MILES WEST OF WILBER...SWAN CREEK WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT
AREA...WALNUT CREEK RECREATION AREA AND DAYKIN.
Quoting 1708. sar2401:


It looks like this is headed directly for the NWS office and radar in Valley. I hope this thing misses it.

The circulation is passing quite a bit south of there.
Trying to wrap up again dangerously close to Omaha.
Tornado Warning for western Omaha metro
1715. sar2401
Quoting Doppler22:
Been out a short while... Any significant damage in Cordova/Beaver Crossing and I heard a town called Larned in KS was hit...

I've seen official reports of damage in Cordova. The tornado did cross the interstate at Beaver Crossing, so I imagine there's damage, but I haven't seen anything official.
Quoting 1713. Ameister12:

Trying to wrap up again dangerously close to Omaha.


If it touches down, we'll see it pretty clearly. Radar is sampling at an estimated 500ft ARL or less in this portion of the Omaha metro.
1718. sar2401
Quoting ScottLincoln:

The circulation is passing quite a bit south of there.

I hope so. The storm's getting into the dead zone of the radar, so it's hard to tell exactly where it's headed.
Quoting 1714. Doppler22:

Tornado Warning for western Omaha metro

KMTV and KETV both appear to be live streaming online.
Quoting Doppler22:
Tornado Warning for western Omaha metro


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
700 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
EAST CENTRAL SAUNDERS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
NORTHWESTERN SARPY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 700 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR YUTAN...OR 20 MILES WEST OF OMAHA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
GRETNA AROUND 710 PM CDT.
WATERLOO AROUND 720 PM CDT.
ELKHORN AND MILLARD AROUND 725 PM CDT.
RALSTON AROUND 730 PM CDT.


OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE BOYS
TOWN...TWO RIVERS STATE RECREATION AREA...CHALCO AND BENNINGTON.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
HIGHWAY 275 IN NEBRASKA NEAR MILE MARKER 167 .
HIGHWAY 92 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 459 AND 466 ...AND
BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 462 AND 466 .
INTERSTATE 80 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 443 AND 448.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A
VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
Quoting 1718. sar2401:


I hope so. The storm's getting into the dead zone of the radar, so it's hard to tell exactly where it's headed.

The tornado circulation is not in the cone of silence.
It's to the south of there, just southwest of the Skyline/Boys Town areas of west Omaha. That's the direction it's headed.
Also of note, that storm to the southwest of the Omaha storm now has developed a very strong circulation, about 5800ft ARL. Near the Swanton area, but generally small towns or rural areas.
3 tornado warnings in Nebraska now
Very broad circulation continues in SW Omaha metro very near the ground. Still no tight circulation and no debris as of 0008utc. Now we just need several more scans just like this.

Edit: From that same volume scan, however, just above the surface scan in the 3000-4000ft ARL the circulation appears much more ominous.
Looks like RFD has undercut the rotation.
Quoting 1726. Ameister12:

Looks like RFD has undercut the rotation.

Omaha keeps lucking out. Just as it seems to tighten up, or just as a stronger meso aloft appears, then it falls apart again. The original circulation seems to have occluded just south of the radar. Now I would be more concerned farther east over the next 5-10 minutes of a potential new circulation.
KMTV's radar system apparently auto-triggers icons for "debris" based upon some algorithm that looks at CC. It keeps triggering for debris very close to the radar where there is considerable clutter. One met has been discounting it due to proximity to the radar, another has been suggesting that the gust front/RFD from the storm was lofting debris. I'm not aware of any radar papers that suggest straight-line winds can loft debris enough for radar to pick it up. Just FYI in case you are watching the feed that it is very likely at erroneous detection of this algorithm.
Looks like a possible small tornado has formed in the center of the massive circulation over west Omaha. Hard to see at the lowest tilt due to extensive clutter, but for the few tilts above that there is an apparent circulation and a small area of low CC that lines up with it. Likely location is in the northern portions of Elkhorn and weakening (if it hasn't already dissipated).

EDIT: 0024utc volume scan either shows a new weak circulation or the same one from before. If it is the same, it oddly moved NNE against the main storm motion and moved very quickly. It is now in the Bennington area. No debris at this time but circulation is very low to the ground has has a SW spike in the center.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
727 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN THAYER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
SOUTHEASTERN FILLMORE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 800 PM CDT

* AT 726 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER BELVIDERE...OR 31 MILES NORTH OF
BELLEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
BRUNING AROUND 730 PM CDT.
STRANG AROUND 735 PM CDT.
OHIOWA AROUND 740 PM CDT.
MILLIGAN AROUND 750 PM CDT.

PEOPLE IN BRUNING SHOULD BE IN THERE STORM SHELTER NOW!

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A
VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
7:32 PM CT: Emergency Management is reporting damage on Hwy 4 just east of Daykin
Quoting 1695. Ameister12:

*Facepalm* When will they learn...

Brett Adair ‏@AlaStormTracker 55m
One chaser overrun by the tornado....just got the phone call. They are okay, but can't release information now. Video was rolling... :/
Exploiting stupidity to be famous.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Exploiting stupidity to be famous.


Wait, who's exploiting who?

The chasers who got hit were technically exploiting themselves.

P.S. Happy Mother's Day, Washi.


Look a BIG eye has formed!!
My hunch is that the NWS is going to find tomorrow during surveys several small, weak tornado tracks through the western Omaha metro area. The first of these will likely line up with the power outages near Elkhorn. There have been several brief circulations showin up on radar, several with very brief drops in CC which may (but may not) have signal debris. Not necessarily clear cut and textbook, but current evidence leans that way for me.
Why aren't the storms in Kansas going crazy? Kansas has been in sun most of the day.
Storm popping up near Elk City, OK
Quoting 1734. sunlinepr:



Look a BIG eye has formed!!


lmao
Quoting 1739. Patrap:

Don Murray Chaser convergence on Omaha!

...and those are just the ones that volunteer their locations publicly.
Quoting 1739. Patrap:

Don Murray Chaser convergence on Omaha!


Just amazing collective stupidity.
Looks like a storm wants to go for tornado status north of Lyons, KS
Quoting 1736. Doppler22:

Why aren't the storms in Kansas going crazy? Kansas has been in sun most of the day.


Mid to upper winds there are not really that strong.
1744. sar2401
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Omaha keeps lucking out. Just as it seems to tighten up, or just as a stronger meso aloft appears, then it falls apart again. The original circulation seems to have occluded just south of the radar. Now I would be more concerned farther east over the next 5-10 minutes of a potential new circulation.

As did Lincoln. If this was a stronger tornado or took a slightly different path, the story would have been much different.
1745. hydrus

Vance AFB, OK (KVNX) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)
Quoting 1734. sunlinepr:



Look a BIG eye has formed!!

Terracane!!!
1747. hydrus
1748. hydrus
1749. Patrap
Congratulation's Big Time


Jimmy Page!-Jimmy Page receives the honorary degree of Doctor of Music.

I give you, Dr. James Patrick Page

Agganis Arena at Boston University
Boston, Massachusetts.
May 10, 2014

1750. sar2401
Quoting Doppler22:
Why aren't the storms in Kansas going crazy? Kansas has been in sun most of the day.

You never know. It's still 78 here with a dewpoint of 68. Still very unstable atmosphere, and we had some extensive thunderstorm development this afternoon. As of now , the thunderstorms have completely dissipated. At the same time, just east of Columbus GA, there is a nearly stationary area of thunderstorms with tops as high as 38,000 feet. Within 50 miles, the atmosphere is completely different. Something changed, but I have no clue what it is.
Amazing - 82 mph at Omaha Eppley at 7:51pm!! This will likely cause significant damage at the airport

7:57pm CT: #Tornado warned storm moving E at 45mph includes Beaver, Iroquois, Rensselaer, #Indiana

Tornado Warning for Jasper and Newton Counties in IN until 8:45 PM CDT

7:50p CT: Radar showing possible 75mph winds crossing Missouri R from Omaha into Council Bluffs.

NEW: #Tornado watch until 3am CDT for a large part of IA including Des Moines.
Quoting 1743. Bluestorm5:



Mid to upper winds there are not really that strong.

Thanks

Quoting 1750. sar2401:


You never know. It's still 78 here with a dewpoint of 68. Still very unstable atmosphere, and we had some extensive thunderstorm development this afternoon. As of now , the thunderstorms have completely dissipated. At the same time, just east of Columbus GA, there is a nearly stationary area of thunderstorms with tops as high as 38,000 feet. Within 50 miles, the atmosphere is completely different. Something changed, but I have no clue what it is.

I guess we will see if anything new pops up

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL JASPER AND EAST
CENTRAL NEWTON COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

AT 809 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR COLLEGEVILLE...
AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR...
RENSSELAER AROUND 810 PM CDT.
PLEASANT RIDGE AROUND 815 PM CDT.
HANGING GROVE AND MOODY AROUND 825 PM CDT.
Quoting 1734. sunlinepr:



Look a BIG eye has formed!!
I wondered if that system could wrap enough moisture in to block off the dry air and moisten its environment. Now it just needs to pull inward and spin up to start the season off early! :-)
1755. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
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TORNADO WARNING     SIOUX FALLS SD - KFSD 814 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING WICHITA KS - KICT 812 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014
Quoting Patrap:
Congratulation's Big Time


Jimmy Page!-Jimmy Page receives the honorary degree of Doctor of Music.

I give you, Dr. James Patrick Page

Agganis Arena at Boston University
Boston, Massachusetts.
May 10, 2014



That guy is an amazing musician. Well deserved.
1757. Patrap
 
805  
WFUS53 KFSD 120114  
TORFSD  
IAC167-120145-  
/O.NEW.KFSD.TO.W.0006.140512T0114Z-140512T0145Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD  
814 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
CENTRAL SIOUX COUNTY IN NORTHWEST IOWA...  
 
* UNTIL 845 PM CDT  
 
* AT 809 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR IRETON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE  
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS  
LIKELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
SIOUX CENTER AROUND 820 PM CDT.  
HULL AROUND 830 PM CDT.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TORNADOES ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. TAKE COVER NOW.  
 
THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. DO NOT  
WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN  
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A BUILDING.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 4325 9606 4305 9593 4296 9632 4307 9637  
TIME...MOT...LOC 0113Z 247DEG 30KT 4306 9628  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...1.00IN  
 
 
 
CHAPMAN  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

Major damage to a structure in Sutton, NE via @jdame69
Quoting 1756. Astrometeor:



That guy is an amazing musician. Well deserved.


The years have changed him.... but not his mastership...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
814 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL SIOUX COUNTY IN NORTHWEST IOWA...

* UNTIL 845 PM CDT

* AT 809 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR IRETON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
SIOUX CENTER AROUND 820 PM CDT.
HULL AROUND 830 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORNADOES ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. TAKE COVER NOW.

THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. DO NOT
WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A BUILDING.
1761. sar2401
OMG! I was watching the live feed from WOWT TV in Omaha about the storms. A female report who's their Facebook "expert" was scrolling through the pictures sent in of storm damage. I guess she hadn't looked at the page before she went live. Right below a picture of some street flooding was a picture of..umm..a couple of people doing...uh...naughty things. It was like everyone in the studio froze for five seconds. Dead silence. The reporter then furiously scrolled down to get away from the picture...only to have more show up! The director finally cut back to a radar shot to end her misery.

I told you Facebook was dangerous. :-)
Are any of the models still predicting a sub-tropical to tropical storm forming near the Bahamas?
1762....No
Hope all had a nice Mother's Day...

Well thats about it for me. Night guys
Quoting 1754. CaneFreeCR:

I wondered if that system could wrap enough moisture in to block off the dry air and moisten its environment. Now it just needs to pull inward and spin up to start the season off early! :-)



Well there appears to be an anti-cyclone in the general vicinity. Although i highly doubt it may develop, an invest off the northern coast of Haiti is not too unimaginable.

Shear is about 20-30 knots.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
824 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0820 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 N SUTTON 40.62N 97.86W
05/11/2014 CLAY NE STORM CHASER

HOUSE COMPLETELY DESTROYED DOWN TO THE BASEMENT
FOUNDATION
1 MILE NORTH OF SUTTON. NUMEROUS POWER POLES
ALSO DOWN IN THE AREA. SURVEY TEAM WILL BE DISPATCHED TO
LOCATION TOMORROW.


&&

$$

SALTZMAN
Quoting 1761. sar2401:

OMG! I was watching the live feed from WOWT TV in Omaha about the storms. A female report who's their Facebook "expert" was scrolling through the pictures sent in of storm damage. I guess she hadn't looked at the page before she went live. Right below a picture of some street flooding was a picture of..umm..a couple of people doing...uh...naughty things. It was like everyone in the studio froze for five seconds. Dead silence. The reporter then furiously scrolled down to get away from the picture...only to have more show up! The director finally cut back to a radar shot to end her misery.

I told you Facebook was dangerous. :-)


i saw that too. lol, it was bad
From the Miami NWS Disco...

MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING
TROUGH/UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE BEST SOURCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH THIS TIME. MODEL PWS QUICKLY INCREASE ACROSS THESE AREAS
AND APPROACH THE 2" MARK THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. A BLEND OF THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS AND OUTPUTS THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL CHANCES OVER THESE AREAS OR SOUTH OF A LINE EXTENDING
WEST FROM FORT LAUDERDALE TO NAPLES AND OUT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE AS THE UPPER FEATURE
BEGINS TO FILL AND OPEN UP...ISOLATED TSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED
IN THIS PACKAGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY-FRIDAY)

AN INVERTED TROUGH NOW AFFECTING PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WEST NORTHWEST AND INTO THE BAHAMAS DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK...AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTH FL BEFORE A LONGWAVE TROUGH SWEEPS TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. THIS IS THE CONSENSUS OF
GFS AND ECMWF. THE FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MID WEEK WITH DRYING TAKING PLACE BY NEXT
WEEKEND. AN ANOMALOUS PATTERN IS SHOWN BY BOTH MODELS BY THIS
WEEKEND WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND A COOLER AND
DRY AIRMASS PLUNGING ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
IF THIS ENDS UP THE CASE, DEWPOINTS COULD LOWER INTO THE 40S AND 50S
NEXT WEEKEND - RARE FOR MID MAY - AND A BONUS FOR THOSE OF US NOT
LOOKING FORWARD TO THE HIGH HUMIDITY DAYS WHICH AWAIT. /GREGORIA

1772. sar2401
Quoting Ameister12:
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
824 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0820 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 N SUTTON 40.62N 97.86W
05/11/2014 CLAY NE STORM CHASER

HOUSE COMPLETELY DESTROYED DOWN TO THE BASEMENT
FOUNDATION
1 MILE NORTH OF SUTTON. NUMEROUS POWER POLES
ALSO DOWN IN THE AREA. SURVEY TEAM WILL BE DISPATCHED TO
LOCATION TOMORROW.


&&

$$

SALTZMAN

It did seem as if that line of storms was producing stronger tornadoes at the beginning than the end. While I feel badly for the people who suffered damage in places like Clay County, a reverse pattern with these tornadoes could have produced much worse results.
1773. Patrap
Quoting 1770. nwobilderburg:



i saw that too. lol, it was bad



Never ever use FB LIVE, on Air.

New Rule
Quoting 1761. sar2401:

OMG! I was watching the live feed from WOWT TV in Omaha about the storms. A female report who's their Facebook "expert" was scrolling through the pictures sent in of storm damage. I guess she hadn't looked at the page before she went live. Right below a picture of some street flooding was a picture of..umm..a couple of people doing...uh...naughty things. It was like everyone in the studio froze for five seconds. Dead silence. The reporter then furiously scrolled down to get away from the picture...only to have more show up! The director finally cut back to a radar shot to end her misery.

I told you Facebook was dangerous. :-)


LOL! Viral in how long?
1775. sar2401
Quoting nwobilderburg:


i saw that too. lol, it was bad

I'm sure everyone watching had the same reaction, and then said to themselves, "Well, how do they get out of this one?". The poor reporter seemed to completely lose it as she tried to make the first picture go away, only to get in more trouble. I'm not a FB user, so I don't know much about it, but apparently people can post pretty much whatever they want if you have a public page. In this case, someone took advantage of that. I don't think WOWT will be showing their Facebook page live any time in the foreseeable future. :-)
1776. sar2401
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


LOL! Viral in how long?

Considering how many people must have been watching it, and how many people also have those recorders in their cable system, I'd guess maybe a day or two before it's all over YouTube. :-)
1777. sar2401
Quoting Doppler22:
Well thats about it for me. Night guys

GN, Doppler, thanks for the updates and commentary.
1778. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
TORNADO WARNING     WICHITA KS - KICT 910 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014
TORNADO WARNING     SIOUX FALLS SD - KFSD 910 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014
Quoting 1722. BaltimoreBrian: !!! Hydrologists find Mississippi River network's buffering system for nitrates is overwhelmed






Brian - you usually post some very interesting science articles. I found this one particularly so. Alas, the original is behind a paywall, but nonetheless, this was well worth the read. Thanks for posting.

1780. Patrap

Quoting 1774. GeoffreyWPB:



LOL! Viral in how long?
Oh IM looking, I have c drive on one tower dedicated ..u betcha, if it pops up, we gonna get it. LOL
1781. pottery
Quoting sar2401:

Considering how many people must have been watching it, and how many people also have those recorders in their cable system, I'd guess maybe a day or two before it's all over YouTube. :-)

LOL, it's going to set a whole new competitive trend.
All live stuff is now hereby delayed…….
1782. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
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SVR T-STORM WARNING DES MOINES IA - KDMX 915 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014
FLASH FLOOD WARNING CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL - KLOT 915 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 914 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA - KOAX 913 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING WILMINGTON OH - KILN 1013 PM EDT SUN MAY 11 2014
1783. Patrap
Quoting 1781. pottery:


LOL, it's going to set a whole new competitive trend.
All live stuff is now hereby delayed%u2026%u2026.
Most Major networks work on a 7-9 second delay. But for Live though, esp weather locally, Stuff Happens. And for her and the director..lotsa stuff iz gonna happen real soon I bet.
1784. sar2401
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
From the Miami NWS Disco...AN ANOMALOUS PATTERN IS SHOWN BY BOTH MODELS BY THIS
WEEKEND WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND A COOLER AND
DRY AIRMASS PLUNGING ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
IF THIS ENDS UP THE CASE, DEWPOINTS COULD LOWER INTO THE 40S AND 50S
NEXT WEEKEND - RARE FOR MID MAY - AND A BONUS FOR THOSE OF US NOT
LOOKING FORWARD TO THE HIGH HUMIDITY DAYS WHICH AWAIT. /GREGORIA


It seems almost impossible to believe the models at this point. With the pattern you've been stuck in all winter and spring, and now with highs in the 90's and lows in the mid to high 70's, it's hard to imagine a middle of May cold front not only making it down there, but doing so this year. It has been a strange year so far, so I guess almost anything is possible, but having a developing subtropical low swept away from Miami by a cold front...I don't know, just a bit much for me.
12z GEOS-5 looks like the 00z (that goes out longer in time) had it wrapping up into a subtropical after it exits FL. This latest run brings the blob of moisture further into the GOM than any other run so far...before it goes back across the state. I still don't think we will see anything more than in invest for atleast 5 days.

ASCAT of the low off of Greenland..
1787. Patrap
Quoting 1785. Skyepony:

12z GEOS-5 looks like the 00z (that goes out longer in time) had it wrapping up into a subtropical after it exits FL. This latest run brings the blob of moisture further into the GOM than any other run so far...before it goes back across the state. I still don't think we will see anything more than in invest for atleast 5 days.





Tis the Seasonal Awakening in the Atlantic. The GOM is Healthy as well. So early action is noted and climatology says 1 every 2 years one gets spit out I believe.
1788. sar2401
Quoting pottery:

LOL, it's going to set a whole new competitive trend.
All live stuff is now hereby delayed…….

Makes you wonder. Actually, WOWT is in a bit of trouble. FCC regulations are you can't show any nudity before 10:00 pm, even if it's inadvertent. Other stations have paid fines for this kind of thing, and I suspect WOWT will also. The FCC is pretty puritanical about this sort of thing, especially for an over the air station. I don't know what a station does to prevent this sort of thing but some kind of delay, but then they do lose a competitive advantage to a station willing to take more risks. Someone must pay for this mistake though, and imagine that poor woman is at home updating her resume as we write.
1789. sar2401
Quoting Skyepony:
ASCAT of the low off of Greenland..

It's a Freezingcane! :-)
It's not unheard of to get weak storms May 15-July 1 that meander back and forth over or near the peninsula.
I don't know if this particular area near the Mona passage will be it, probably not. But it's about that time to not exactly be surprised by shallow systems that zig and zag as the tropical and continental pattern changes.
Quoting 1788. sar2401:


Makes you wonder. Actually, WOWT is in a bit of trouble. FCC regulations are you can't show any nudity before 10:00 pm, even if it's inadvertent. Other stations have paid fines for this kind of thing, and I suspect WOWT will also. The FCC is pretty puritanical about this sort of thing, especially for an over the air station. I don't know what a station does to prevent this sort of thing but some kind of delay, but then they do lose a competitive advantage to a station willing to take more risks. Someone must pay for this mistake though, and imagine that poor woman is at home updating her resume as we write.


I went back on Twitter and saw what you're talking about. Honestly, it's not THAT bad but they still shouldn't have shown it on live TV.
Quoting 1754. CaneFreeCR:

I wondered if that system could wrap enough moisture in to block off the dry air and moisten its environment. Now it just needs to pull inward and spin up to start the season off early! :-)

This image looks so cool.
1793. Patrap
Quoting 7. JohnLonergan:

Ocean Heat Anomaly Spikes to New Extreme High of +1.16 C Above ‘Average’ on May 10, 2014



Global ocean surface temperature anomaly vs the 1979-2000 average. Data source: Global Forecast System Model. Image source: University of Maine.)

On May 10 global ocean surface temperatures hit a new extreme high for 2014 of +1.16 C above the already hotter than normal 1979-2000 average. This extraordinary temperature departure was driven in part by a warming of Equatorial Pacific waters to a +.59 C anomaly, putting that region in the range of a weak El Nino.

More ...
Quoting 1793. Patrap:



The El Niño a coming, but the Atlantic might pull a 2002 if you know what I mean. Cough" Isidore, Lili" cough.
Nasty weather a comin'. And by nasty, I mean cold.



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 147
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1000 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EXTREME SOUTHWEST IOWA
SOUTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST KANSAS
EXTREME NORTHWEST MISSOURI
EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 1000 PM
UNTIL 400 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH OF
FALLS CITY NEBRASKA TO 45 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF ENID OKLAHOMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
These two win a Darwin Award.

1798. Patrap
Quoting 1794. HurricaneAndre:


The El Niño a coming, but the Atlantic might pull a 2002 if you know what I mean. Cough" Isidore, Lili" cough.


I have some VHS-C B-roll of full Canals here by the Airport in 02, with Nutrias and cars being pushed outta water. I'm gonna hunt that up and upload it.
1799. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
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Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING WICHITA KS - KICT 1014 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING DES MOINES IA - KDMX 1003 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014
TORNADO WARNING     DES MOINES IA - KDMX 959 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014
TORNADO WARNING     WICHITA KS - KICT 957 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014
TORNADO WARNING     DES MOINES IA - KDMX 945 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014
1800. beell
An FSU graduate Thesis on the possible link between gap winds and tropical cyclogenesis.

Holbach, Heather Marie, "The Effects Of Gap-Wind-Induced Vorticity, The Monsoon Trough, And The Itcz On Tropical Cyclogenesis" (2012).Electronic Theses, Treatises and Dissertations.Paper 4913.


72 hr Surface Forecast

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON MAY 12 2014

...LOOKING AHEAD...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS
COAST AND INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND BRING
A LATE SEASON GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT
STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
1801. Patrap
 
643  
WFUS53 KDMX 120326  
TORDMX  
IAC049-153-169-120400-  
/O.NEW.KDMX.TO.W.0011.140512T0326Z-140512T0400Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA  
1026 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
NORTHEASTERN DALLAS COUNTY IN CENTRAL IOWA...  
SOUTHWESTERN STORY COUNTY IN CENTRAL IOWA...  
NORTHWESTERN POLK COUNTY IN CENTRAL IOWA...  
 
* UNTIL 1100 PM CDT  
 
* AT 1024 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR DALLAS CENTER...OR 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF  
GRIMES...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
GRANGER AROUND 1030 PM CDT.  
GRIMES...MADRID AND SAYLORVILLE LAKE AROUND 1035 PM CDT.  
POLK CITY...SAYLORVILLE AND BIG CREEK LAKE AROUND 1040 PM CDT.  
SLATER AROUND 1045 PM CDT.  
HUXLEY AROUND 1055 PM CDT.  
 
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE BIG  
CREEK STATE PARK...SHELDAHL AND ALLEMAN.  
 
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 92 AND 100.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
THIS TORNADO WARNING REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING ISSUED  
FOR THE SAME AREA.  
 
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE  
TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.  
 
TORNADOES ARE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. DO NOT  
WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.  
 
THIS CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND  
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE  
TORNADO. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A BUILDING.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 4171 9350 4168 9397 4176 9401 4187 9381  
4186 9370 4192 9370 4196 9363  
TIME...MOT...LOC 0324Z 252DEG 40KT 4174 9392  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...<.75IN  
 
 
 
SMALL  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
These two win a Darwin Award.



They should've been killed. And it would've been nice if the one driving had turned his camera over to his navigational friend, so we could see the murderous look of that tornado. Not just "Oh! I see it!". Good for you, Captain Obvious.
1803. Patrap
 
206  
WFUS53 KOAX 120327  
TOROAX  
IAC137-120400-  
/O.NEW.KOAX.TO.W.0008.140512T0327Z-140512T0400Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA  
1027 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST IOWA...  
 
* UNTIL 1100 PM CDT  
 
* AT 1027 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR RED OAK...OR 32 MILES SOUTH OF ATLANTIC...  
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
STANTON AROUND 1040 PM CDT.  
 
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE  
COBURG...GRANT AND VIKING LAKE STATE PARK.  
 
THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 34 IN IOWA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 33 AND 51.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A  
VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND  
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 4097 9494 4090 9517 4090 9526 4100 9536  
4116 9506 4116 9493 4098 9493  
TIME...MOT...LOC 0327Z 238DEG 33KT 4096 9523  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...1.25IN  
 
 
 
FOBERT  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
1805. Patrap
ASCAT of the Atlantic Blob


Sar~ That other ASCAT is still a little elongated for a freezingcane;)
I am sitting at 1023.4hPa so this images sums it up nicely.



1808. sar2401
Quoting Skyepony:
ASCAT


Sar~ That's still a little elongated for a freezingcane..

I meant the one up by Greenland.
1809. sar2401
Quoting Bluestorm5:


I went back on Twitter and saw what you're talking about. Honestly, it's not THAT bad but they still shouldn't have shown it on live TV.

No, you're right, but it was bad enough for live TV. The FCC just can't take a joke about that kind of thing. :-)
Came across this video of Haiyan storm surge, I hadn't seen. People up to their necks in water..

Quoting 1808. sar2401:


I meant the one up by Greenland.

So did I. Needs to consolidate more. It's center of circulation is much too elongated from east to west to be considered a Freezingcane quite yet.

I was just posting the ascat of the blob there. Suppose I could clarify..
1812. JRRP
1813. sar2401
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
These two win a Darwin Award.


Seriously...I can't hardly believe this. Not only are they stupid, they had to show us twice! Then, at the end, did I see that right? They couldn't use the "damn defroster" because of...some reason...so the driver rolls down the window and holds the freakin' video camera out the window? While he's driving? So they can get a better shot of their impending doom? Really, this pair should never be allowed near severe weather again. And did they pass another chaser dude with a geeky looking weather station on his roof, driving real slow, so he could get a better view?

They should be on their knees thanking the Lord that wasn't an EF-5.

EDIT: BTW, boys, it only counts as an intercept if you intercept the the tornado, not the tornado chasing you down, trying to kill you.
1814. sar2401
Quoting Skyepony:

So did I. Needs to consolidate more. It's center of circulation is much too elongated from east to west to be considered a Freezingcane quite yet.

I was just posting the ascat of the blob there. Suppose I could clarify..

Oh, I've got you now. But, if it does consolidate, it might be a Freezingcane! :-)
Warm pool is expanding and intensifying.

1816. pottery
An hour without a post on here?
Has the world ended ????
Quoting 1816. pottery:

An hour without a post on here?
Has the world ended ????


Just about. STS's post was the first for 5 hours, which must be a record for here. I read on the Internet that there's been a super infectious return of the Black Death, which is travelling round the world at lightning speed. As you're on an island, it'll take a bit longer to reach you. Scott should be okay, as he's a genetic freak, and the bugs won't know what to make of him.

This may be my last post as big black lumps are growing on my hands making it hard to type. Goodbye.
I don't believe the HPC for one minute. I still think big rains for Wekiva Springs, FL. Just got off the phone with the Melbourne NWS and they are suggesting big totals coming in by the middle of the week. The rainy season is upon us in Florida Folks. Get ready because here we come!

We have our first .5C per CPC at Nino 3.4! Also all other regions have warmed as well.

Nino 1 2 is at 1.2C, Nino 3 at 0.6C, and Nino 4 at 0.8C.
1820. pottery
Quoting yonzabam:


Just about. STS's post was the first for 5 hours, which must be a record for here. I read on the Internet that there's been a super infectious return of the Black Death, which is travelling round the world at lightning speed. As you're on an island, it'll take a bit longer to reach you. Scott should be okay, as he's a genetic freak, and the bugs won't know what to make of him.

This may be my last post as big black lumps are growing on my hands making it hard to type. Goodbye.


It's about time !
1821. Dakster
Quoting 1817. yonzabam:



Just about. STS's post was the first for 5 hours, which must be a record for here. I read on the Internet that there's been a super infectious return of the Black Death, which is travelling round the world at lightning speed. As you're on an island, it'll take a bit longer to reach you. Scott should be okay, as he's a genetic freak, and the bugs won't know what to make of him.

This may be my last post as big black lumps are growing on my hands making it hard to type. Goodbye.


NIce knowing you.

I guess the blog will explode when the first storm forms... Until then slowness as final exams are forthcoming in Junior/High schools. Might explain the lack of posting. Most colleges are done - although I suspect a few of those are in finals now too.
1822. Dakster
Quoting 1820. pottery:



It's about time !


You and Gro already lived through it - so you should have the appropriate anti-bodies already...
Quoting 1811. Skyepony:


So did I. Needs to consolidate more. It's center of circulation is much too elongated from east to west to be considered a Freezingcane quite yet.

I was just posting the ascat of the blob there. Suppose I could clarify..


This image from the Icelandic Met Office captures it quite nicely:

Incredible video from Sebastion Inlet as a spear fisherman came face to face with a Great White.

This guy had to fend the Great White off with his spear.

Here's the video Link
Over the last several years there have been numerous reports of Great Whites around the Sebastion Inlet area. I guess this must be a prime feeding area for them there.
Gross.

Years with first .5C at Nino 3.4. Very interesting. Came across this at Storm2k just now.

Second earliest since 1990.

1991 May 8
1994 Jun 1
1997 Apr 23
2002 May 29
2004 Jul 21
2006 Aug 23
2009 Jun 17
2014 May 7
1828. hydrus
Quoting 1816. pottery:

An hour without a post on here?
Has the world ended ????
No..Some accidentally hit the pause button..:)
1829. StormWx
Good Morning everyone. It appears we are still in a Neutral pattern overall as the 3.4 is stubbornly below 0.5C at 0.4C. Even the Nino 4 region is coming back to reality. El Nino still waits, and i am still thinking later this year guys.



Quoting 1829. StormWx:

Good Morning everyone. It appears we are still in a Neutral pattern overall as the 3.4 is stubbornly below 0.5C at 0.4C. Even the Nino 4 region is coming back to reality. El Nino still waits, and i am still thinking later this year guys.



CPC has Nino 3.4 at .5C. Remember the CPC uses a 5 or 7 day average. As it stands we are in El-Nino now we just have to maintain .5C or higher for El-Nino to be officlally declared in June or July.


NOAA has a ENSO blog if anyone wants to visit.

NOAA Climate.gov ‏@NOAAClimate May 9
Keep visiting our new ENSO #blog for perspectives & analysis on the progression of #ElNiño http://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/ … pic.twitter.com/0Ja4lQ0Ov7


Quoting 1830. StormTrackerScott:









warm waters at nino 1 and 2 are starting two head W in two the rest of the nino we could see big time warming over the next week or so in nino 3 nino 3.4 and nino 4

1833. ricderr

Years with first .5C at Nino 3.4. Very interesting. Came across this at Storm2k just now.

Second earliest since 1990.

1991 May 8
1994 Jun 1
1997 Apr 23
2002 May 29
2004 Jul 21
2006 Aug 23
2009 Jun 17
2014 May 7


you have to include the 1991 event as this year and 91 averaged .05 in the same week...only difference is the day of reporting.....
1834. StormWx
CPC has Nino 3.4 at .5C. Remember the CPC uses a 5 or 7 day average. As it stands we are in El-Nino now we just have to maintain .5C or higher for El-Nino to be officlally declared in June or July.

We are currently in Neutral conditions Scott, until they officially call it El Nino by definition. Here is the info on how they determine when an El Nino occurs:

North America's operational definitions for El Niño and La Niña, based on the index, are:
El Niño: A phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific Ocean characterized by a positive sea surface temperature departure from normal (for the 1971-2000 base period) in the Niño 3.4 region greater than or equal in magnitude to 0.5 degrees C (0.9 degrees Fahrenheit), averaged over three consecutive months.

Not 5-7 days.

Link
Quoting 1834. StormWx:

CPC has Nino 3.4 at .5C. Remember the CPC uses a 5 or 7 day average. As it stands we are in El-Nino now we just have to maintain .5C or higher for El-Nino to be officlally declared in June or July.

We are currently in Neutral conditions Scott, until they officially call it El Nino by definition. Here is the info on how they determine when an El Nino occurs:

North America's operational definitions for El Nio and La Nia, based on the index, are:
El Nio: A phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific Ocean characterized by a positive sea surface temperature departure from normal (for the 1971-2000 base period) in the Nio 3.4 region greater than or equal in magnitude to 0.5 degrees C (0.9 degrees Fahrenheit), averaged over three consecutive months.

Not 5-7 days.

Link



I'm referring to their weekly updates as they use 5 to 7 day averages to determine what to use on their Monday updates. I suggest you read my post again.

CPC has Nino 3.4 at .5C. Remember the CPC uses a 5 or 7 day average. As it stands we are in El-Nino now we just have to maintain .5C or higher for El-Nino to be officlally declared in June or July.
1836. StormWx
Can you say Cooler and Dryer in 6-10 days?





If we were in an "El Nino" wouldnt we be wetter? lol

Right around average for the CFL area this week.

1837. ricderr
Good Morning everyone. It appears we are still in a Neutral pattern overall as the 3.4 is stubbornly below 0.5C at 0.4C. Even the Nino 4 region is coming back to reality. El Nino still waits, and i am still thinking later this year guys.




i addressed this on saturday........if we were to see a rapid rise in temp anomalies....nino could be declared as early as the middle of june.....hovering at an .5 average......the middle of august....and with a moderate rise ....middle to late july
Per CPC

The latest weekly SST
departures are:
Nino 4 0.8ºC
Nino 3.4 0.5ºC
Nino 3 0.6ºC
Nino 1+2 1.2ºC


Link
Quoting 1837. ricderr:

Good Morning everyone. It appears we are still in a Neutral pattern overall as the 3.4 is stubbornly below 0.5C at 0.4C. Even the Nino 4 region is coming back to reality. El Nino still waits, and i am still thinking later this year guys.




i addressed this on saturday........if we were to see a rapid rise in temp anomalies....nino could be declared as early as the middle of june.....hovering at an .5 average......the middle of august....and with a moderate rise ....middle to late july


I agree Ric. Good thing is East Texas is really benefiting now as the onset of El-Nino continues as tropical moisture has been getting pulled up from the E-Pac lately.

Quoting 1839. StormTrackerScott:



I agree Ric. Good thing is East Texas is really benefiting now as the onset of El-Nino continues as tropical moisture has been getting pulled up from the E-Pac lately.





i hop CA will see the same beneflt rainfall has TX and FL has been geting later in SEP and fall and winter this year
1841. LargoFl
geez.................(CNN) -- A Texas panhandle wildfire that destroyed 100 homes and forced hundreds of residents to evacuate is 75 % contained, authorities said Monday.

The Texas Forest Service provided a spotter airplane and two air tankers that dropped fire retardant, said Danny Richards, coordinator for the Hutchinson County Emergency Management.

A cold front that moved into the area raised humidity and helped firefighting efforts, he said.

Richards said up to 1,500 acres burned and 700-800 people evacuated their homes.

Fritch Police Chief Monte Leggett said the fire put the whole town at risk. It started about late Sunday afternoon and was driven by strong, shifting winds.

The cause of the blaze has not been determined.
Quoting 1823. LAbonbon:



This image from the Icelandic Met Office captures it quite nicely:


Looks to have about reached Freezingcane statues now:)



The Atlantic blob on the other hand looks somewhat anemic this morning. The 00Z GEOS-5 run doesn't spin it up anymore. Not even next week. Still looks like needed rain for FL & some islands coming. Severe weather this week across parts of the US looks probable.

1843. StormWx
Quoting ricderr:
Good Morning everyone. It appears we are still in a Neutral pattern overall as the 3.4 is stubbornly below 0.5C at 0.4C. Even the Nino 4 region is coming back to reality. El Nino still waits, and i am still thinking later this year guys.




i addressed this on saturday........if we were to see a rapid rise in temp anomalies....nino could be declared as early as the middle of june.....hovering at an .5 average......the middle of august....and with a moderate rise ....middle to late july


Indeed i agree, El Nino will come in the upcoming months. Happy Monday to you :o)
Quoting 1838. StormTrackerScott:

Per CPC

The latest weekly SST
departures are:
Nino 4 0.8ºC
Nino 3.4 0.5ºC
Nino 3 0.6ºC
Nino 1+2 1.2ºC


Link




with nino 1 and 2 at 1.2 that is geting up there too mod EL nino levels looks like we are willl under way two strong two super strong EL nino by mid two late summer has the warming at nino 1 and 2 will be heading W in two the rest of the nino areas
1845. MahFL
Quoting 1836. StormWx:

Can you say Cooler and Dryer in 6-10 days?


Cooler sounds good to me, any days below 90 F in the spring/summer are good in FL.
1846. ricderr
i found a good highlight as to how fickle el nino is to texas rainfall.......

here is an el nino map



here is fly gap...located in central texas..



you can note that in the 51-52 event...the net rain result was drought...while the 97-98 event resulted in the highest rainfall recorded in that period
Quoting 1846. ricderr:

i found a good highlight as to how fickle el nino is to texas rainfall.......

here is an el nino map



here is fly gap...located in central texas..



you can note that in the 51-52 event...the net rain result was drought...while the 97-98 event resulted in the highest rainfall recorded in that period


What that means the stronger the El-Nino the more effects from excessive rainfall in Texas. However the biggest impacts will be in California & Florida. The storms that whipped thru here during the 1997/1998 El-Nino were terrifying. Will never forget watching a huge tornado move by our house at 12:03 in the morning with lightning strikes striking around the tornado as it plowed NE toward Sanford. That tornado was rated F3 and killed 13 a few were my classmates.
I suspect Doc may roll out an ENSO blog soon as we have our first .5C reading at Nino 3.4.
( Red Huber, Orlando Sentinel / February 23, 1998 )
Areas affected: Central Florida
Date: February 1998
Death toll: 42 deaths, 260 injuries
Damages: In excess of $100 million


From Dr. Greg Forbes on Florida tornadoes

Florida gets its most tornadoes, on average, in June. The deadliest have been in January through April, however. While we tend to think of tornadoes as an afternoon and evening phenomenon, from 1950-2006, 44% of Florida's tornado deaths have been at night. Tornadoes at night can be particularly deadly. People are either asleep or can't see the twister coming in the darkness. It can save your life if you have a NOAA Weather Radio with Tone Alert, or subscribe to a notification system like.
NOAA to announce Atlantic hurricane season outlook May 22

Announcement to include new storm surge forecast tools
1852. ricderr
What that means the stronger the El-Nino the more effects from excessive rainfall in Texas. However the biggest impacts will be in California & Florida. The storms that whipped thru here during the 1997/1998 El-Nino were terrifying. Will never forget watching a huge tornado move by our house at 12:03 in the morning with lightning strikes striking around the tornado as it plowed NE toward Sanford. That tornado was rated F3 and killed 13 a few were my classmates.

as regards to the stronger the event the more rainfall....this doesn't show to be true......i know it plays that way in the media...but not in this case when you do that comparisons......i'm going to survey across florida...but in this case.......here's the findings

weak el nino....2 above average rainfall and 3 drought

moderate el nino....3 above average rainfall and 2 drought...1 average

strong el nino...2 above average rainfall and 3 drought

for me...the only thing i think you can conclude...is you will not see average precip amounts





A somewhat wet trade wind flow, I won't complain. It's May after all.
Quoting 1852. ricderr:

What that means the stronger the El-Nino the more effects from excessive rainfall in Texas. However the biggest impacts will be in California & Florida. The storms that whipped thru here during the 1997/1998 El-Nino were terrifying. Will never forget watching a huge tornado move by our house at 12:03 in the morning with lightning strikes striking around the tornado as it plowed NE toward Sanford. That tornado was rated F3 and killed 13 a few were my classmates.

as regards to the stronger the event the more rainfall....this doesn't show to be true......i know it plays that way in the media...but not in this case when you do that comparisons......i'm going to survey across florida...but in this case.......here's the findings

weak el nino....2 above average rainfall and 3 drought

moderate el nino....3 above average rainfall and 2 drought...1 average

strong el nino...2 above average rainfall and 3 drought

for me...the only thing i think you can conclude...is you will not see average precip amounts


Well here in FL the only dry El-Nino I remember was the one in 2006/2007. Most if not all the other El-Nino's brought lots of heavy rain to FL especially from December thru March. It seemed to rain nearly the whole month of December during the last El-Nino of 2009. I picked up nearly 8" of rain that month when the average is 3".
Quoting 1853. CaribBoy:






A somewhat wet trade wind flow, I won't complain. It's may after all.


How much rain did you pick up over the weekend?
Hey guys check this out it's our First Official Tropical Wave off the W Coast of Africa

1857. ricderr
'm going to survey across florida...but in this case.......here's the findings


duhhh...i meant texas......i forgot where i lived for a moment......i'll do florida also though.....
1858. hydrus
Quoting 1825. StormTrackerScott:

Over the last several years there have been numerous reports of Great Whites around the Sebastion Inlet area. I guess this must be a prime feeding area for them there.
There is plenty for them to forage on. but Great White sightings were rare in that region...Things may be changing tho.
1859. ricderr
Hey guys check this out it's our First Official Tropical Wave off the W Coast of Africa



cayman.....el nino is out there...so you can quit looking


yes...the ricderr official weather site has declared the 2014 hurricane season officially over...and of course this supercedes all nhc briefs, alerts and warnings....anything you might hear this upcoming season is no different than our space exploration.....a man made media event transpiring in secret government studios and broadcast as real...we've never been to the moon....space shuttle flights only happened on the backs of 747's...and the space station is broadcast from a secret russian military installation.....
1860. JRRP
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Hey guys check this out it's our First Official Tropical Wave off the W Coast of Africa


nice..
hurricane season is a bust this year if you want too track moster storms look in the E PAC and W PAC
Quoting 1859. ricderr:

Hey guys check this out it's our First Official Tropical Wave off the W Coast of Africa



cayman.....el nino is out there...so you can quit looking


yes...the ricderr official weather site has declared the 2014 hurricane season officially over...and of course this supercedes all nhc briefs, alerts and warnings....anything you might hear this upcoming season is no different than our space exploration.....a man made media event transpiring in secret government studios and broadcast as real...we've never been to the moon....space shuttle flights only happened on the backs of 747's...and the space station is broadcast from a secret russian military installation.....


There is no El Niño I think there eventually will be an El Niño I think it will be a Modoki El Niño but at the moment there is none
SST's across the Nino regions have been declining as the MJO pulse moves away, allowing the easterlies to resume. They should stabilize somewhat before the next pulse arrives.

In fact, the warming seems to have resumed at Nino 1 2 already, and should continue in spite of the easterlies.

1864. Patrap
Quoting 7. JohnLonergan:

Ocean Heat Anomaly Spikes to New Extreme High of +1.16 C Above ‘Average’ on May 10, 2014



Global ocean surface temperature anomaly vs the 1979-2000 average. Data source: Global Forecast System Model. Image source: University of Maine.)

On May 10 global ocean surface temperatures hit a new extreme high for 2014 of +1.16 C above the already hotter than normal 1979-2000 average. This extraordinary temperature departure was driven in part by a warming of Equatorial Pacific waters to a +.59 C anomaly, putting that region in the range of a weak El Nino.

More ...
Nino 1&2 jumped from 9.52 to 1.039

More and more 3C anomalies beginning to show up across the enso regions.
1866. Grothar
Post #1863 Looks like we are well on our way to a traditional El Nino with the warmest sst off the coast of Ecuador. The latest frame of the GODAS shows the El Nino signal well.
Quoting 1861. Tazmanian:

hurricane season is a bust this year if you want too track moster storms look in the E PAC and W PAC


It's not really a bust if everybody is calling a slow season in Atlantic, though.
TAMPA --
If getting a jump on purchasing hurricane supplies for the upcoming season is not your thing, the state of Florida hope to give you a little incentive.

Florida residents will again be able to buy hurricane supplies tax-free.

The Florida Legislature is making storm supplies exempt from sales taxes for one week at the start of hurricane season. The exemption is part of a tax-cut package approved by the Legislature. The package was sent it to Gov. Rick Scott, who is expected to sign it on Monday.

Under the bill (HB 5601), the tax break would be from May 31 through June 8.

"If you start early as soon as the season starts before the storm comes and have all the supplies that you need, you will be ready when the storm hits," said Ryan Budnik, a central Florida Ace Hardware Store manager.

Some of the specific items in the sales tax holiday include:

A portable self-powered light source selling for $20 or less.
A portable self-powered radio, two-way radio, or weather band radio selling for $50 or less.
A tarpaulin or other flexible waterproof sheeting selling for $50 or less.
A self-contained first-aid kit selling for $30 or less.
A ground anchor system or tie-down kit selling for $50 or less.
A gas or diesel fuel tank selling for $25 or less.
A package of AA-cell, C-cell, D-cell, 6-volt, or 9-volt batteries, excluding automobile and boat batteries, selling for $30 or less.
A nonelectric food storage cooler selling for $30 or less.
A portable generator used to provide light or communications or preserve food in the event of a power outage. selling for $750 or less.
Reusable ice selling for $10 or less.
These exemptions do not apply to sales inside of a theme park, entertainment complex, lodging establishment or airport.
"You always want to be prepared even though the outlook for this (hurricane) season is for a tamer season," said Bay News 9 meteorologist Josh Linker. "You could have a tame season and have one major storm hit your area, just like a busy season and no storms hitting your area."

Link

Josh Linker makes a good point, it only takes one, so always be prepared and have an evacuation plan already in place.
1870. Patrap
Carl Hiaasen: Fla.'s Gov. Scott takes deep dive into climate change

BY CARL HIAASEN

The Miami Herald

May 12, 2014

(Rejected first draft of Gov. Rick Scott's position on climate change).

My fellow Floridians, as you've all probably heard, a new National Climate Assessment report says that Florida is seriously threatened by rising sea levels, mass flooding, salt-contaminated water supplies and increasingly severe weather events - all supposedly caused by climate change.

Let me assure you there's absolutely no reason for worry. I still don't believe climate change is real, and you shouldn't, either.

Don't be impressed just because 240 "experts" contributed to this melodramatic report. The tea party has experts, too, and they assure me it's all hogwash.

Even if the atmosphere is warming (and, whoa, I'm not saying it is!), I still haven't seen a speck of solid evidence that it has anything do with man spewing millions of tons of gaseous pollutants into the sky.

Is the planet a hotter place than it was 200 years ago? Yes, but only by a couple of degrees. Did most of the temperature rise occur since 1970? Yes, but don't blame coal-burning plants or auto emissions.

Maybe the sun is getting closer to the Earth. Ever think of that? Or the Earth is moving closer to the sun? Let's get some brainiacs to investigate that possibility!

As long as I'm the governor, Florida isn't going to punish any industries by imposing so-called "clean air" regulations that limit carbon emissions.

In fact, soon after I took office we repealed the state's Climate Protection Act and eliminated the Energy and Climate Commission that was created under my predecessor, the Obama-hugging turncoat Charlie Crist.

I also ordered the Department of Environmental Protection to halt all initiatives dealing with renewable energy and reduced greenhouse gas emissions. In fact, no one at DEP is even allowed to whisper the phrase "climate change" any more.

Yet the subject just won't go away. That's because the liberal media keep trying to scare everybody.

Say the polar ice caps really are melting, and sea levels really did rise eight inches during the last 130 years. Who says there has to be a scientific explanation? Maybe God's just messing around with us for a few centuries.

I myself own a big home in Naples right on the Gulf of Mexico, which is supposedly rising along with the oceans. Do I look scared? Do you see a moving van in my driveway?

Of course not (although I'm grateful to the Koch brothers for offering to let me stay with them in Wichita during the next hurricane).

And, please, enough griping already about Miami Beach going underwater! While I sympathize with all the homeowners and businesses along Alton Road that are being swamped by flooding at high tides, there's not much I can do as governor except pretend it isn't happening.

So let's pull together to remind the rest of America, and the whole world, that most of Florida is still dry, and it will be for many, many real-estate cycles to come.

Newcomers who might be queasy about purchasing waterfront property in South Beach or Fort Lauderdale should instead consider some of our inland gems like Sebring (where the average elevation is 131 feet above sea level), Haines City (182 feet) or Eustis (67 feet).

Let's get out the word that it could be hundreds of years before Ocala (104 feet) is submerged. So come on down now and get your homestead exemption before you need a snorkel to find your homestead.

If you really want to play it safe, try beautiful Britton Hill, the highest point in Florida at 345 feet above sea level. It is way up in Walton County near the Alabama border, but at least you'll still be on the map if Key Biscayne turns into a coral reef.

To concerned residents of greater Miami, Tampa Bay and Apalachicola - three areas singled out by the federal report as imperiled by rising water - here's what I would say:

Open a paddleboard shop, people. Or an airboat taxi service.

Why not turn a negative situation into a positive opportunity? One person's sinkhole is another person's cave-spelunking franchise.

Come on, Florida, let's get to work.

ABOUT THE WRITER

Carl Hiaasen is a columnist for the Miami Herald. Readers may write to him at: The Miami Herald, 3511 N.W. 91 Avenue, Doral, Fla. 33172; email: chiaasen@miamiherald.com.



Quoting 1868. Bluestorm5:



It's not really a bust if everybody is calling a slow season in Atlantic, though.
I'm not going to make any claims to how active or not so active this season will be, not after what happened last year. By August we should have a better idea. Still fun to look at all the models and weather charts and analyze them. Waiting on the bell to ring to officially declare El Nino.
1872. Patrap
NASA Hosts Media Teleconference on West Antarctic Ice Sheet Findings

May 9, 2014

MEDIA ADVISORY M14-091

NASA Hosts Media Teleconference on West Antarctic Ice Sheet Findings

NASA will host a media teleconference at 12:30 p.m. EDT Monday, May 12, to discuss new research results on the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and its potential contribution to future sea level rise.
The briefing participants are:

-- Eric Rignot, professor of Earth system science at the University of California Irvine, and glaciologist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California;

-- Sridhar Anandakrishnan, professor of geosciences at Pennsylvania State University, University Park; and,
-- Tom Wagner, cryosphere program scientist with the Earth Science Division of NASA's Science Mission Directorate in Washington.

For dial-in information, media should email their name, affiliation and telephone number to Steve Cole at stephen.e.cole@nasa.gov no later than 11:30 a.m. Monday. Questions can also be submitted on Twitter using the hashtag #askNASA.

For decades scientists have recognized that this area of the massive ice sheet covering Antarctica is particularly vulnerable to the effects of a changing climate. The majority of the ice sheet in West Antarctica is grounded on bedrock that lies below sea level, making it susceptible to melting from warm ocean waters.

Audio of the teleconference will be streamed live at:

http://www.nasa.gov/newsaudio

A link to relevant graphics will be posted at the start of the teleconference on NASA's Earth Right Now site:

http://www.nasa.gov/earthrightnow

-end-

Steve Cole
1873. JRRP
so the forecast was good with the first tropical wave
My allergies are better than they were a week ago when those stick'in trees were still in bloom mode.I can breath more clearly now.It's a nice day so I'm thinking about going to the wharf for lunch.It's breezier by the water than it is inland.
1875. pottery
Quoting CaribBoy:





A somewhat wet trade wind flow, I won't complain. It's May after all.

Hey, what's my boat doing there?
I told the crew to meet me in Mustique.
I guess this is what I get for only employing chicks with dubious references but nice photos.
Quoting 1871. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I'm not going to make any claims to how active or not so active this season will be, not after what happened last year. By August we should have a better idea. Still fun to look at all the models and weather charts and analyze them. Waiting on the bell to ring to officially declare El Nino.


Honestly, I think it'll be inactive season either way. Atlantic is lacking energy this year and Cape Verde is in a terrible shape.
1877. LargoFl
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
354 AM MDT MON MAY 12 2014

...WIDESPREAD FREEZE FOR NORTHWEST PLATEAU...LOWER CHAMA RIVER
VALLEY AND SANTA FE METRO...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT...

.A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PLUNGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS MORNING. THE COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH COLDER LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

NMZ501-517-518-522-523-528-529-531-122200-
/O.UPG.KABQ.FZ.A.0004.140513T0300Z-140513T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KABQ.FZ.W.0006.140513T0300Z-140513T1800Z/
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-
ESTANCIA VALLEY-CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-HARDING COUNTY-
354 AM MDT MON MAY 12 2014

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBUQUERQUE HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT
TUESDAY. THE FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATION...NORTHWEST PLATEAU...LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY...
SANTA FE METRO AREA...ESTANCIA VALLEY...CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS...AND HARDING COUNTY.

* TIMING...AFTER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAYTIME
TODAY...READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
LATE TONIGHT THEN PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING TUESDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...RANGING FROM 28 TO 33 DEGREES.

* LOCAL IMPACTS...TENDER VEGETATION AND ANIMAL DRINKING WATER
MAY FREEZE. EXPOSED PLUMBING OR IRRIGATION MAY ALSO FREEZE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A FREEZE WARNING MEANS FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY.

&&

$$

Quoting 1876. Bluestorm5:



Honestly, I think it'll be inactive season either way. Atlantic is lacking energy this year and Cape Verde is in a terrible shape.
I think that if it wasn't for el nino it wouldn't matter so much for the cape verde anyway because like you said it's in bad shape.But look at 2005.As active as it was the cape season was horrid and only produced one storm if memory serves me correctly.But it was the storms that formed close to land that were the problems.Rita,and katrina originated out of the Bahamas and we all know the story....

Point I'm trying to make is that all the warm water is bundled close to land this year "The south-east coast and the caribbean".So if shear conditions were to let up then we may have problems.
On second thought I will just stay in the office and head down to the cafeteria :(.

"Cluster of showers/storms in West Virginia is holding together fairly well and short-term modeling now indicates an increased chance of showers and storms early this afternoon. I’m increasing the chance of rain to 50 percent east of I-95 and 60 percent west of I-95."
Quoting 1870. Patrap:

Carl Hiaasen

Don't be impressed just because 240 "experts" contributed to this melodramatic report. The tea party has experts, too, and they assure me it's all hogwash.

Is the planet a hotter place than it was 200 years ago? Yes, but only by a couple of degrees. Did most of the temperature rise occur since 1970? Yes, but don't blame coal-burning plants or auto emissions.

Maybe the sun is getting closer to the Earth. Ever think of that? Or the Earth is moving closer to the sun? Let's get some brainiacs to investigate that possibility!


Oh boy... gotta love incendiary writing - no matter which side of the debate you fall on.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Like the snow birds, the season nears and I have returned. I even remembered my ID and password so I did not have to create a new one this year.

http://www.local10.com/news/gov-rick-scott-to-sig n-bill-for-3-sales-tax-holidays/25931462 Nine days of tax free shopping for hurricane supplies in Florida.

I hope everyone is well and I look forward to some interesting, and informative discussions.
1883. Dakster
Quoting 1861. Tazmanian:

hurricane season is a bust this year if you want too track moster storms look in the E PAC and W PAC


Good News - Taz says this year is a bust. No need to buy windstorm insurance this year...
1884. vis0
RE:TO:
pg37-1849. StormTrackerScott
2:15 PM GMT on May 12, 2014
(Can't get Quote, my fault my connection too slow)



Though my memory (since a kid) is bad, one of the things that stuck in my mind was watching TwCh that
evening in NYC.  One of the Heads of TwCh at the severe storm desk responds to Mrs. Lisa Mozer (On air
personality...met???) asking for a 2nd time are you sure we should not watch for these (as Lisa pointed
to the upper-middle area of the pan handle) clusters. The reply by TwCh head (a top meteorologist) was not
to worry maybe some strong winds, NOT blaming anyone but it shows how fickle we think nature is, but
nature is just being naturally unpredictable thus we should always be aware and have NOAA TONE alert
(as StormTrackerScott NOTED) on for those sudden changes. Hope to post more LP videos of Twch,
being i'm on 52k and youtube stopped ones ability to continue uploading broken uploads i can only upload
12 hours at a time which is a 40 minute .mp4 of okay quality.

 (i've posted on the webnet since (1981 via SUNY) 1992 using several user names as of late as WxRetro
different varieties of wxPresentation clips. From "WxBabes" to serious 30 min. to 60 min. VIDs of the
late1970s-1980s (Dr. Frank Field), 1990s NYC OCM & 1988-2001weather predictions/Satellite maps
mostly of TwcH and it might include this clip, of course i post . )

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