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Extreme Flooding in Alabama and Florida; 1 EF-4 and 5 EF-3 Tornadoes Rated

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:31 PM GMT on April 30, 2014

After two wild days of tornado devastation across the U.S. on Sunday and Monday, an unexpected break occurred on Tuesday, when only nine tornadoes touched down. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) had issued a forecast for a “Moderate Risk” of severe weather over much of Alabama and Mississippi, but none of Tuesday’s tornadoes hit those states. Instead, North Carolina saw the bulk of the activity, with eight preliminary reports of tornadoes. The welcome forecast bust was caused by a very difficult to predict scenario—a cluster of intense thunderstorms called a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) remained strong Monday night over a large portion of the Southeast coast, creating a large pool of cool, stable air. This cool air formed its own high pressure system that reduced instability and cut off the flow of moist, unstable air into the Southeast from the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday afternoon. However, the moisture that was cut off from flowing northwards instead fell to the ground over coastal Alabama and the Florida Panhandle in the form of torrential rains on Tuesday. A flash flood emergency has been declared this morning in Pensacola, Florida and Mobile, Alabama. Record daily rainfall amounts were set on Tuesday in both cities, with 11.13” and 11.24”, respectively. Pensacola Airport recorded a remarkable 5.68 inches of rain in just one hour ending at 10 pm Tuesday night. Flood waters closed a 30-mile stretch of I-10 near the Alabama/Florida border Tuesday night, and a 5-mile stretch remained closed this morning. Numerous high-water rescues have been performed Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, and one drowning has occurred, in a vehicle that tried to cross flooded Highway 29. Two deaths were also reported this morning in Athens, Georgia , where severe thunderstorm winds toppled a tree onto a car.


Figure 1. Storm chaser Jim Edds is trapped in the Florida Panhandle by extreme flooding, but was able to tweet out this photo this morning. The Pensacola News Journal has also been tweeting some remarkable photos of the flooding.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the Florida Panhandle for April 29 and 30, 2014. Precipitation amounts in excess of 12” were indicated just west of Pensacola. The spectacular rains were reminiscent of what happened June 7 - 11 2012. Torrential rains in excess of 20” flooded portions of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle when a large plume of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico interacted with an upper-level disturbance over the region. Flooding was particularly severe in Pensacola, FL, where 13.13 inches of rain fell on June 9.

Tornado outbreak death toll rises to 35
Sunday and Monday’s tornado rampage across the Midwest and Southeast U.S. brought at least five EF-3 tornadoes and one EF-4 tornado, and has claimed 35 lives. For the 24-hour period beginning at 8 am Monday, SPC logged 72 preliminary tornado reports from five states. An additional 35 preliminary tornado reports came on Sunday, bringing the two-day preliminary tornado total to 107. The deadliest tornado was an EF-3 that killed 14 people in Arkansas, ravaging the towns of Mayflower and Vilonia. Damage surveys are not yet complete, but the strongest tornado rated so far was an EF-4 with 185 mph winds that hit Louisville, Mississippi on April 28. The tornado killed nine people, carved a damage path 35 miles long and up to 3/4 mile wide, and stayed on the ground for 56 minutes. The NWS survey noted:

“THIS TORNADO PRODUCED A LARGE AREA OF EF2 TO EF4 DAMAGE ALONG ITS PATH. HUNDREDS OF STRUCTURES WERE HEAVILY DAMAGED AND THOUSANDS OF TREES WERE SNAPPED AND UPROOTED. THE EF4 DAMAGE CONSISTED OF SEVERAL HOMES AND APARTMENTS THAT WERE REDUCED TO SLABS...INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS THAT WERE COLLAPSED...CHICKEN HOUSES THAT WERE COMPLETELY DESTROYED WITH LITTLE TRACE LEFT OF THEM...DEBARKED AND DENUDED TREES AND A COLLAPSED CELL TOWER.”


Figure 3. Severe weather outlook for Wednesday, April 30, 2014, as issued on Wednesday by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. For the first time this week, the severe threat is below the “Moderate Risk” level.

Wednesday the final day of this week’s severe weather outbreak
The strong, slow-moving low pressure system that brought this week’s deadly tornadoes will continue to spawn a few more supercell thunderstorms capable of generating large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes on Wednesday. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued their “Slight Risk" forecast of severe weather over a region stretching from Maryland southwest to north Florida. Rainfall amounts of 1 - 3 inches can be expected in much of the severe weather risk area, with some 3+ inch totals in Florida and Eastern Pennsylvania.

Disaster Relief Donations Needed
The devastation from this week’s tornadoes have brought a need for donations for disaster relief. The Portlight.org disaster relief charity, founded by members of the wunderground community, is supporting the efforts of a group of local volunteers in Arkansas doing search and rescue, and needs donations. Portlight volunteers are working in tornado-hit towns to clear debris and help with other clean-up efforts. This team will also be visiting shelters and reaching out to survivors with disabilities to determine their immediate needs, whether for replacement of durable medical equipment and ramps, or for assistance with shelter and transportation issues. The Red Cross is also a great place to send your donation dollars.

Jeff Masters
Lightning Navarre FL
Lightning Navarre FL
across from University of South Alabama at int of Old Shell and University Blvd Mobile, AL
across from University of South Alabama at int of Old Shell and University Blvd Mobile, AL
Storm
Storm

Tornado Flood Severe Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 499. sar2401:


Welcome aboard, Durham. Which Durham do you live in? You might just add your location to your profile so we all won't ask you the same thing. :-) Yes, indeed, Weather Underground has been the weather site since the days of FTP dial up internet. Most of the bloggers here are pretty smart (except for a couple who aren't brightest bulbs in the string) and affable (except for a couple of old grumps), so enjoy yourself.


I am in Durham, NC. How do I update a profile? I found the blog and some maps but not much else. I am learning a lot just reading. You are all more knowledgeable than I!
502. jpsb
If anyone is interested we are 1,000,000 square km above "normal" in sea ice. Antarctic has been breaking daily sea ice records quite a bit lately. The Arctic is only about 500,000 sq km below "normal", while the Antarctic is about 1,500,000 sq km above "normal". I'm not sure this record sea ice is good news, since I fear a cooling Earth much more then a warming Earth.

data here
Quoting ricderr:
Dr. Forbes expects to be off the air for several weeks while he recuperates. In the meantime, thanks in part to his tutelage, we have a well-trained team both behind-the-scenes and in front of the camera. Carl Parker, Dr. Greg Postel, Jim Cantore and Mike Bettes will continue to provide viewers with the expert insights and severe weather coverag

yep...won't be a break in our ten minutes of weather coverage a day...now back to prespectors

The Weather Channel was on air all day and night Sunday, all day Monday and Monday night, and all day yesterday. They may show a lot of pointless shows when the weather is calm, but they're excellent at storm coverage and deserve credit for it.
Quoting 489. StormWx:



We just pointed out there is no El Nino at the moment when you said the El Nino conditions were the reason for lower instability. Its okay we just pointed out the facts to you. Lets stick to weather and not cause drama :o) Nobody is always right, and i admit i'm wrong at times.
I never said there was El Nino, I said to be expected during El Nino conditions, keyword EXPECTED, you guys don't know how to read, so friggin illiterate. Go back to school.
Dr. Forbes is not only about the best weather forecaster that I have seen on television, from a knowledge standpoint, but also has the best overall personality by far and appears to be very well grounded.  He also threw out a shout out to Dr. Fujita, who he worked with, while broadcasting the other night during the severe weather event.
God Speed to him; he already has the right attitude to get through this period.    
Quoting 504. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I never said there was El Nino, I said to be expected during El Nino conditions, keyword EXPECTED, you guys don't know how to read, so friggin illiterate. Go back to school.


There's not enough words for some on here GT. I think some come on here just to cause a stir. Keep up the great post like you always do and just ignore the bottom feeders.
Quoting 502. jpsb:

If anyone is interested we are 1,000,000 square km above "normal" in sea ice. Antarctic has been breaking daily sea ice records quite a bit lately. The Arctic is only about 500,000 sq km below "normal", while the Antarctic is about 1,500,000 sq km above "normal". I'm not sure this record sea ice is good news, since I fear a cooling Earth much more then a warming Earth.

data here

So what?
There's not enough words for some on here GT. I think some come on here just to cause a stir. Keep up the great post like you always do and just ignore the bottom feeders.


first we're old and grumpy...now we're bottom feeders.....i think my feelings are a tad hurt here.....
Quoting 506. StormTrackerScott:



There's not enough words for some on here GT. I think some come on here just to cause a stir. Keep up the great post like you always do and just ignore the bottom feeders.



Am all so ingoring the El Niño downcaster
Quoting 506. StormTrackerScott:



There's not enough words for some on here GT. I think some come on here just to cause a stir. Keep up the great post like you always do and just ignore the bottom feeders.
Thanks I should do that, because I know I am way better than that. It's like people take sides in here and try to cause conflict, the same ones everyday, why do you think I don't come in here often anymore.
Quoting 466. DurhamWeatherLover:

A friend of mine linked to this website on Facebook a few days ago during the severe weather. I wish I had known this existed before because I am a weather junkie!
Hi and welcome
Quoting 510. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Thanks I should do that, because I know I am way better than that. It's like people take sides in here and try to cause conflict, the same ones everyday, why do you think I don't come in here often anymore.


Hey man you know I like your post so you come whenever you feel like it just ignore those that cause problems. Hows school going?
513. jpsb
Quoting 504. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I never said there was El Nino, I said to be expected during El Nino conditions, keyword EXPECTED, you guys don't know how to read, so friggin illiterate. Go back to school.


I made the same mistake as StormWx, I thought you were saying the conditions we are currently seeing are consistent with an El Nino. Mistakes happen, no big deal.
Thank god all the exciting weather is over so we can talk about global warming again
Quoting 489. StormWx:



We just pointed out there is no El Nino at the moment when you said the El Nino conditions were the reason for lower instability. Its okay we just pointed out the facts to you. Lets stick to weather and not cause drama :o) Nobody is always right, and i admit i'm wrong at times.


'Teleconnections' between El Nino and global weather may be more mysterious than is supposed. For some time now, there has been severe drought in Indonesia, Malaysia and north east Brazil, and flooding in Peru. All of these weather regimes are associated with El Nino conditions, yet we don't have an El Nino.

So, maybe the cause and effect isn't as straightforward as is sometimes supposed.
so in on lunch are we all done now
Heavy rain moving into the already heavily flooded areas of the Florida Panhandle.
520. jpsb
Quoting 507. Birthmark:


So what?


Just pointing out that there is now the equivalent of Texas and California of above normal sea ice floating around. I thought sea ice was an indicator of climate change? If so then the the sea ice indicator is indicating cold.
Quoting 480. TropicalAnalystwx13:

A message from David Clark, president of The Weather Channel:

As some of you know, Dr. Greg Forbes will be off our air for a few weeks beginning tomorrow. During a routine annual physical, Greg was diagnosed with colon cancer, and he will have surgery this week. Doctors believe that the cancer was discovered early, and they are very positive about his prognosis.
Dr. Forbes expects to be off the air for several weeks while he recuperates. In the meantime, thanks in part to his tutelage, we have a well-trained team both behind-the-scenes and in front of the camera. Carl Parker, Dr. Greg Postel, Jim Cantore and Mike Bettes will continue to provide viewers with the expert insights and severe weather coverage they have come to depend on and expect. We will continue to use Dr. Forbes' TORCON index, and will not be surprised when he starts sharing his severe weather insights with the team before anyone sees him back on air or in the office.
Dr. Forbes commitment to our audience in times of severe weather has always been remarkable, but witnessing him go full bore during the storms these past few days, knowing what he has been dealing with, is something I, for one, will tell my grandkids about. We are grateful for him and look forward to his full recovery and welcoming him back very soon.
I know how much all of us care for StormMaster G, and many of you will want to help. Look for an email in the next few days about that. Please join me in wishing Greg a speedy recovery and in keeping him in your thoughts and prayers.

David Clark


Wishing him well, was close to it two years ago. Had about one foot of colon removed and biopsy was benign. Surgeon said if had not been found and removed, would have been cancer in a year or so. I found out about it due to internal bleeding, don't be like me get a colonoscopy!
Quoting 520. jpsb:



Just pointing out that there is now the equivalent of Texas and California of above normal sea ice floating around. I thought sea ice was an indicator of climate change? If so then the the sea ice indicator is indicating cold.


It's declining summer sea ice that is most important for climate change. Albedo effects which are an extremely important positive feedback, are most powerful in summer.
Quoting 520. jpsb:



Just pointing out that there is now the equivalent of Texas and California of above normal sea ice floating around. I thought sea ice was an indicator of climate change? If so then the the sea ice indicator is indicating cold.
how many times do we have to tell ya it don't matter whats there now it will be gone by mid july anyway its all 1 year old ice not even one year more like six months

now if it don't melt and ages to the 5 year age period then we may have something

but right now its nothing
Quoting JNTenne:

From the article....
"The sinkhole opened next to railroad tracks used by CSX in the first block of 26th Street in northeast Baltimore, the Mayor’s Office of Emergency Management said. A photo uploaded to the Twitter account showed several cars swallowed in the pit. CSX said an embankment collapsed onto the railroad tracks. It said rail traffic in the area has been suspended."


Ah, the sinkhole again. It's actually a sandstone block retaining wall that collapsed into an existing railroad cut. The street was at the edge of the retaining wall and, thus, the cars parked there got dragged down into the cut as the wall collapsed. Baltimore doesn't have "sinkholes", at least not in the Florida sense of the term. :-)
Quoting 520. jpsb:



Just pointing out that there is now the equivalent of Texas and California of above normal sea ice floating around. I thought sea ice was an indicator of climate change? If so then the the sea ice indicator is indicating cold.

You thought wrong. Arctic sea ice is an indicator of climate change. Antarctic sea ice is very different, and much more complex. Since that has been pointed out to you previously, I have little hope that the facts will make any more difference this time. But I guess it's worth a try.
Quoting 381. sar2401:


Oh boy, I'm glad it wasn't a Brown Recluse or something really bad. I hate yellow jackets. They sting just enough to be really annoying, and they make that nasty buzzing sound around your head. I hate the fire ants we have down here worse, but yellow jackets are next on my list. I've got a bunch of seedling herbs coming up also and, surprisingly, my 8.54" rain rate I had for a few minutes early this morning didn't wreck them much. It was quite a storm. Imagine the worst monsoon season cloudburst rain you've ever seen and then triple it. I "only" had 3.52" of rain and my street was a river. I don't think I'd be sitting here typing tonight if we got the 23 inches they got in Pensacola.


We don't have the brownies around here. Lots of black widows, but it's a little early for those. Mighta been though, I was bitten by one two or three years ago and it was funny - one of my cleaning gigs, cleaning behind a toilet, and it didn't feel like a bitey stingy thing, it felt like someone grabbed my finger and yanked it backwards at the knuckle. Swelled up about 2x behind a ring I was wearing, the joint was achey for a couple weeks, and I felt a touch woozy for a day or so after. I've had worse cases of the common cold, frankly. (And I've heard about black widow bites having occasional delayed reactions, so it could have been in the tree I'd been climbing that morning too.

This was... no idea. Could have been one of the random leggy ones we get around here. Numb spot in the middle of both bite zones, itchy as all get out all around, the bite felt like a combination of yellow jacket sting and getting splashed with hot bacon grease. While I was driving down Alt50 going to Fernley.

Yellow jackets, I hate those little muckers. Regular wasps, I used to be just as terrified until one day sitting by my brussel sprout stalks, watching sadly as all the cabbage worms were doing their thing. A wasp buzzed by but ignored me, and I followed it to see why it wanted my sprouts too? No, she and a number of her sisters were grabbing the cabbage worms and carrying them off. Suddenly I didn't hate wasps anymore.

Re: frog stranglers - I remember back in PA - '93? We got not just training thunderstorms but more like a train wreck of thunderstorms. "11 inches" sticks in my head for a one-day measure, and an elderly couple died down near Glenside or thereabouts. Their basement was flooding, the husband went down to check on the sump pump, had a heart attack, his wife went down to try and help him, and they both drowned.

It was quite a day. One thing about growing up down the shore, on the whole most flooding only lasted until the next low tide.
Quoting 502. jpsb:

If anyone is interested we are 1,000,000 square km above "normal" in sea ice. Antarctic has been breaking daily sea ice records quite a bit lately. The Arctic is only about 500,000 sq km below "normal", while the Antarctic is about 1,500,000 sq km above "normal". I'm not sure this record sea ice is good news, since I fear a cooling Earth much more then a warming Earth.

data here


why do you think there is more than average sea ice in the southern ocean? honest question.
Teleconnections' between El Nino and global weather may be more mysterious than is supposed. For some time now, there has been severe drought in Indonesia, Malaysia and north east Brazil, and flooding in Peru. All of these weather regimes are associated with El Nino conditions, yet we don't have an El Nino.

So, maybe the cause and effect isn't as straightforward as is sometimes supposed.



i wonder if that's because study of the event is only about 30 years old

so in on lunch are we all done now





Pleasant good day to everyone from Sunny Antigua. It's been a while since I checked in. My prayers go out for all those who have been affected by those deadly storms over the past few days. I have family living in Alabama but have no clue as to how the weather has affected them. Remember: Cherish today because tomorrow is not promised to you
Quoting 529. nonblanche:



And I've heard about black widow bites having occasional delayed reactions, so it could have been in the tree I'd been climbing that morning too


widows aren't typically tree-dwelling. but they'll totally set up shop behind a toilet. or my piano.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The Weather Channel was on air all day and night Sunday, all day Monday and Monday night, and all day yesterday. They may show a lot of pointless shows when the weather is calm, but they're excellent at storm coverage and deserve credit for it.

I'll give you a +100 for that. As much as I really, really hate what TWC has become with the normal rounds of bizarre reality shows that the management has decided are (were) a good idea, the meteorologist side of the staff still shines when the stuff hits the fan. They were right on top of the flooding that was going on down here in the middle of the night, when the local stations had gone back to hour long infomercials for yet another automatic egg cooker. Given what Dr, Forbes knew about his medical condition and upcoming surgery, he did an amazing job. I would have been sitting in a chair rocking back and forth and sniffling. There are some true heroes left in the world, and, most of the time, they don't wear capes and have a cartoon series about them.
Quoting islandgirls:
Pleasant good day to everyone from Sunny Antigua. It's been a while since I checked in. My prayers go out for all those who have been affected by those deadly storms over the past few days. I have family living in Alabama but have no clue as to how the weather has affected them. Remember: Cherish today because tomorrow is not promised to you

Nice to see you again. I'd give about anything to be anchored out in Jolly Harbour right now. What part of Alabama? While the severe weather was widespread, it was very localized, and most of us are still alive. :-)
I'll give you a +100 for that. As much as I really, really hate what TWC has become with the normal rounds of bizarre reality shows that the management has decided are (were) a good idea, the meteorologist side of the staff still shines when the stuff hits the fan. They were right on top of the flooding that was going on down here in the middle of the night, when the local stations had gone back to hour long infomercials for yet another automatic egg cooker. Given what Dr, Forbes knew about his medical condition and upcoming surgery, he did an amazing job. I would have been sitting in a chair rocking back and forth and sniffling. There are some true heroes left in the world, and, most of the time, they don't wear capes and have a cartoon series about them.

ahem...i bought that egg cooker......three of them...one for home...one for the office...and one for the car
Quoting sar2401:

I'll give you a +100 for that. As much as I really, really hate what TWC has become with the normal rounds of bizarre reality shows that the management has decided are (were) a good idea, the meteorologist side of the staff still shines when the stuff hits the fan. They were right on top of the flooding that was going on down here in the middle of the night, when the local stations had gone back to hour long infomercials for yet another automatic egg cooker. Given what Dr, Forbes knew about his medical condition and upcoming surgery, he did an amazing job. I would have been sitting in a chair rocking back and forth and sniffling. There are some true heroes left in the world, and, most of the time, they don't wear capes and have a cartoon series about them.


Dr. Forbes is the best part of TWC. If you listen to the other meteorologists on TWC try to explain severe weather/tornadoes, you'll quickly miss Dr. Forbes' expertise.
He does a very good job of explaining what's going on within the storm.
I hope he gets back on TWC soon.
Quoting 536. schwankmoe:



widows aren't typically tree-dwelling. but they'll totally set up shop behind a toilet. or my piano.


I've found them at the base of trees where roots form a cozy crevice.
can c florida get an isolated tornado with all the high temps and high dew points or will we just get alot of rain. I saw on tampa bay fox that we could see training just like in pensacola/mobile. is it possible we could see 4-8 inches of rain
Quoting 517. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

so in on lunch are we all done now



Punctuation matters...GREATLY

Jibberish dosen't sell well on a science entry
Punctuation matters...GREATLY


and i am the king of punctuation.......sign up for classes today......
545. flsky
Why is this laughable? The ocean is very warm out there. I know it's a way's out, but it's better to know there is a possibility than to stick your head in the sand.
Quoting 523. nwobilderburg:



lol
The Calamitous Climate Responsible for Florida’s Record Rainfall

By Eric Holthaus

As severe weather marches northeast on Wednesday, Florida residents are drying out after ludicrous levels of overnight rainfall.

The National Weather Service called the event “historic.” The official rain gauge at Pensacola’s airport measured an astonishing 5.68 inches in a single hour before it failed around 10 p.m. Tuesday. An analysis by the NWS office in Mobile, Alabama, estimated that single hour to be a 1-in-200- to 1-in-500-year event. The official rain gauge and weather radar both gave out, presumably from lightning strikes, so we might never know exactly how much rain fell Tuesday night.* Still, several unofficial rain gauges measured impressive totals.

One flabbergasted Pensacola resident live-tweeted his rain gauge throughout the night, ending up with more than 2 feet of rain:

more:,
Quoting 545. flsky:

Why is this laughable? The ocean is very warm out there. I know it's a way's out, but it's better to know there is a possibility than to stick your head in the sand.



Indeed



Note the date, May 15th, the start of the East Pac season, so its not out the realm of climatology at all.

Quoting 502. jpsb:

If anyone is interested we are 1,000,000 square km above "normal" in sea ice. Antarctic has been breaking daily sea ice records quite a bit lately. The Arctic is only about 500,000 sq km below "normal", while the Antarctic is about 1,500,000 sq km above "normal". I'm not sure this record sea ice is good news, since I fear a cooling Earth much more then a warming Earth.

data here


Here's the ice numbers that really matter in Antarctica :

Major increase in West Antarctic glacial loss
Six massive glaciers in West Antarctica are moving faster than they did 40 years ago, causing more ice to discharge into the ocean and global sea level to rise, according to new research.
The amount of ice draining collectively from those half-dozen glaciers increased by 77 percent from 1973 to 2013, scientists report this month in Geophysical Research Letters, a journal of the American Geophysical Union. Pine Island Glacier, the most active of the studied glaciers, has accelerated by 75 percent in 40 years, according to the paper. Thwaites Glacier, the widest glacier, started to accelerate in 2006, following a decade of stability.


Link
550. bwi
Quoting nonblanche:


We don't have the brownies around here. Lots of black widows, but it's a little early for those. Mighta been though, I was bitten by one two or three years ago and it was funny - one of my cleaning gigs, cleaning behind a toilet, and it didn't feel like a bitey stingy thing, it felt like someone grabbed my finger and yanked it backwards at the knuckle. Swelled up about 2x behind a ring I was wearing, the joint was achey for a couple weeks, and I felt a touch woozy for a day or so after. I've had worse cases of the common cold, frankly. (And I've heard about black widow bites having occasional delayed reactions, so it could have been in the tree I'd been climbing that morning too.

This was... no idea. Could have been one of the random leggy ones we get around here. Numb spot in the middle of both bite zones, itchy as all get out all around, the bite felt like a combination of yellow jacket sting and getting splashed with hot bacon grease. While I was driving down Alt50 going to Fernley.

Yellow jackets, I hate those little muckers. Regular wasps, I used to be just as terrified until one day sitting by my brussel sprout stalks, watching sadly as all the cabbage worms were doing their thing. A wasp buzzed by but ignored me, and I followed it to see why it wanted my sprouts too? No, she and a number of her sisters were grabbing the cabbage worms and carrying them off. Suddenly I didn't hate wasps anymore.

Re: frog stranglers - I remember back in PA - '93? We got not just training thunderstorms but more like a train wreck of thunderstorms. "11 inches" sticks in my head for a one-day measure, and an elderly couple died down near Glenside or thereabouts. Their basement was flooding, the husband went down to check on the sump pump, had a heart attack, his wife went down to try and help him, and they both drowned.

It was quite a day. One thing about growing up down the shore, on the whole most flooding only lasted until the next low tide.

Sounds like it could have been a Widow bite. Contrary to what many people think, a bite won't kill a healthy adult, but it does hurt, and the swelling can be pretty extreme. Of course, all spider bites carry some amount of venom and, depending on how allergic you are and how long he (or actually she, since it's the females that bite) was chewing on that leg, it can get a mite painful. We did have the recluses across the hill in California, but I don't think they do well in the dry air of the desert.

I don't recall any widespread PA flooding in the early 90's, but it seems like almost every summer there's localized flooding from training thunderstorms somewhere in PA and WV. Just too many hills and streams trying to drain into a relatively few main stem rivers. The area south of Pittsburgh is notorious for that. It's funny the names people have for those kind of floods though. I recall a couple of old desert rats I ran into at the Carson Nugget, way back in 1967, when you'd still see the occasional mule with a prospectors outfit hitched out back, telling me about a flash flood that had carried off most of their camp earlier in the summer. They called it a "toad choker", which makes sense for Nevada, since there's are lots of toads and almost no frogs. :-)
Quoting 542. weatherportricheyfl:

can c florida get an isolated tornado with all the high temps and high dew points or will we just get alot of rain. I saw on tampa bay fox that we could see training just like in pensacola/mobile. is it possible we could see 4-8 inches of rain
guess there is always that possibility here,especially from land falling water spouts turned tornado...more so with a cold front coming down the state...going to be an interesting next few days for central florida alright.
Quoting weatherportricheyfl:
can c florida get an isolated tornado with all the high temps and high dew points or will we just get alot of rain. I saw on tampa bay fox that we could see training just like in pensacola/mobile. is it possible we could see 4-8 inches of rain


It's always possible with thunderstorm development. But we don't have the proper upper level development/shear neeeded to produce large long lived tornadoes.

The best chance of seeing a tornado would be in the form of a waterspout just off shore.They can move onshore and produce damage (usually EF0-EF1).

Stonger tornadoes in Florida are usually associated with a strong low pressure system moving across the state along with the southern Jet feeding energy/shear into the system.

Quoting 542. weatherportricheyfl:

can c florida get an isolated tornado with all the high temps and high dew points or will we just get alot of rain. I saw on tampa bay fox that we could see training just like in pensacola/mobile. is it possible we could see 4-8 inches of rain
by the way,scott has started a Florida weather blog which is coming along very well..your more than welcome to join in with us..............................Link
Quoting weatherportricheyfl:
can c florida get an isolated tornado with all the high temps and high dew points or will we just get alot of rain. I saw on tampa bay fox that we could see training just like in pensacola/mobile. is it possible we could see 4-8 inches of rain

A weak tornado is always possible, just not very likely. Given that this is "The Front That Won't Die" and appears likely to stall over central Florida over the next couple of days, training thunderstorms look like a reasonable bet. If there's one thing this low/front combination has, it a history of very heavy rain, so I wouldn't underestimate the flood potential.
Why is this laughable? The ocean is very warm out there. I know it's a way's out, but it's better to know there is a possibility than to stick your head in the sand.

it is the blogs pleasure to laugh at long range models......personally....i look at them daily...long legs....errrr..i meant weather models..the overwhelming majority of the time...they don't confirm....i'll laugh at the model...not the poster....now....when someone jumps and shouts from the rooftop that the long range model is gospel....well.....that's another story
Off topic for one second.... I don't adapt well to change , in this new format. ugh. lol
A extratropical cyclone here today. South Brazil. The winds already reached 45 mph in some gusts

Link
Quoting 557. longislander102:

Off topic for one second.....I really hate that I can't see what date and what time people have posted. This will take a LOT of getting used to. I don't adapt well to change.
you should see time and date right under the posters name.....here's how i see yours..................... 557. longislander102
5:21 PM GMT on May 01, 2014

This sure popped out of no where, pouring rain now.
Quoting longislander102:
Off topic for one second.... I don't adapt well to change , in this new format. ugh. lol


Use the classic version. It's just like before.
Myself and many others do not like the new format at all so we use the old version.

http://classic.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/ comment.html?entrynum=2673#commenttop

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting Birthmark:

You thought wrong. Arctic sea ice is an indicator of climate change. Antarctic sea ice is very different, and much more complex. Since that has been pointed out to you previously, I have little hope that the facts will make any more difference this time. But I guess it's worth a try.

Seriously, I think you've answered this blogger about 972 times when he pops up another meaningless statistic about sea ice. It's really not worth a try any longer. Sometimes, deafening silence is the best answer, ya know what I mean? ;-0
Quoting 536. schwankmoe:



widows aren't typically tree-dwelling. but they'll totally set up shop behind a toilet. or my piano.


Or under one of the watermelons in my garden last summer. That was a surprise!
Climate change to intensify important African weather systems, Stanford scientists say
Climate change could strengthen African easterly waves, which could in turn have consequences for rainfall in the Sahel region of northern Africa, formation of Atlantic hurricanes and dust transport across the Atlantic Ocean.

Weather systems that bring rainstorms to many drought-prone areas of northern Africa, carry Saharan dust across the ocean and seed Atlantic hurricanes could grow stronger as a result of human-caused climate change, a new analysis by Stanford scientists suggests.

Known as African easterly waves, or AEWs, these weather systems form above northern Africa during the summer season and travel east to west, toward the Atlantic Ocean.


Link
Quoting yonzabam:


'Teleconnections' between El Nino and global weather may be more mysterious than is supposed. For some time now, there has been severe drought in Indonesia, Malaysia and north east Brazil, and flooding in Peru. All of these weather regimes are associated with El Nino conditions, yet we don't have an El Nino.

So, maybe the cause and effect isn't as straightforward as is sometimes supposed.


I agree that the 0.5C number for El Nino/La Nina is just a number created by us people, and that weather doesnt look at any particular number and says 'ok its time to act like an el nino now!'. :o) But the increased warmth of the pacific may very well be playing with the Atlantic vertical instability. We will know sooner or later.
567. jpsb
Quoting 528. Birthmark:


You thought wrong. Arctic sea ice is an indicator of climate change. Antarctic sea ice is very different, and much more complex. Since that has been pointed out to you previously, I have little hope that the facts will make any more difference this time. But I guess it's worth a try.


I do have a difficulty understanding why Arctic sea ice is more important then Antarctic sea ice. I would think that Antarctic ice is a much bigger climate forcer then Arctic ice is since there is vastly more ice at the south pole then at the north pole. Ice at the southern hemisphere is much closer to the equator than ice at the north pole. Southern ice reflects more sunlight back into space then ice at the northern pole. Consider this Antarctica is 14 million sq km in size all of it cover in ice. 15 million km sq is equal to the maximum arctic sea ice extent. Next consider that Antarctic ice shelves (2 million sq km) are not counted as ice ice. So even before sea ice is considered the Antarctic role in global climate is much greater then the Arctic, 16 million sq km of ice before we even consider seasonal ice ice. Record ice at the in the southern ocean is telling us something. Arctic sea ice recovery is also telling us something. And IMHO the message is not global warming.
Quoting 153. StormWx:



Exactly, i said the climate is always changing. Is that confusing?
Not confusing, but rather meaningless. It is a primitive, generalized statement that is totally devoid of detail and nuance - and quite irrelevant to the current human-caused warming trend. The current trend is well understood, and is indeed, caused by human activities as shown by multiple lines of evidence.

You surely don't believe that scientists are not aware that climate has changed in the past, do you? .

Quite the contrary, in fact. Scientists have studied, and continue to study climate history quite thoroughly, and know a heck of a lot more than you or me or any of the folks who hang out here at WU. Though the information is incomplete, it will always be refined added to via continuing research and publication of findings.

"Climate's changed Before" is the number one myth that is debunked at SkepticalScience.com, a website recommended to us by Dr. Masters. The lead-in to the detailed rebuttal is "Climate reacts to whatever forces it to change at the time; humans are now the dominant forcing."
Quoting 435. ricderr:

There will be starvation, refugees, riots, revolutions and extremists gaining power, including Islamist fundamentalists.


fear mongering?........nahhhhhhhhhhhh....LOL
Many of these assessments come from hard-core conservative U.S. military planners at the Pentagon - not from wide-eyed liberal fear-mongers.
I do have a difficulty understanding..

Exactly the point.

You choose to not see the SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE.


And with that thought, you skew all incoming fact and science to re enforce a belief.

That's a bad road to hoe.