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Earth Has Its 4th Warmest March on Record; Weekend Severe Weather Outbreak Coming

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:21 PM GMT on April 23, 2014

March 2014 was the globe's 4th warmest March since records began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) and NASA. March 2014 global land temperatures were the 5th warmest on record, and global ocean temperatures were also the 5th warmest on record. The year-to-date January - March period has been the 7th warmest on record for the globe. Global satellite-measured temperatures in March 2013 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 11th or 9th warmest in the 36-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively. Northern Hemisphere snow cover during March was the 6th lowest in the 48-year record. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of March 2014 in his March 2014 Global Weather Extremes Summary.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for March 2014, the 4th warmest March for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Much of Europe had a top-five warmest March, including Austria (2nd), Norway (3rd), Denmark (4th), Germany (3rd), Latvia (3rd), the Netherlands (3rd), and Slovakia (1st.) In the U.S., Vermont had its coldest March on record, and Michigan, New York, Maine, and New Hampshire all had top-five coldest Marches on record. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .



One billion-dollar weather disaster in March 2014: Drought in Brazil
One billion-dollar weather-related disaster hit the Earth during March 2014: Southeastern Brazil's worst drought in 50 years, which has cost at least $4.3 billion so far this year, according to the March 2014 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield. This is the third most expensive natural disaster in Brazil's history, and the second consecutive year of disastrous drought in the country. Drought in Northeast Brazil during the first five months of 2013 caused an estimated $8 billion in damage--Brazil's second most expensive natural disaster in recorded history. According to the international disaster database EM-DAT, Brazil's costliest natural disaster was the drought of 1978 ($2.3 billion in 1978 dollars, or $8.3 billion 2014 dollars.)


Disaster 1. Cattle in a drought-parched filed in Quixada, Ceara state, Brazil on January 2, 2014. Small farmers in Ceara state have not able to harvest corn to feed cattle, and have been selling them at a loss. Aurelien Francisco Barros/AFP/Getty Images.


Figure 2. The deadliest U.S. weather disaster of March 2014 was the tragic landslide at Oso, Washington that killed 41 people and did $10 million in damage. The landslide was triggered by record March rains that saturated the soils. The nearby Seattle airport measured 9.44” (240 mm) of precipitation in March, a new record for the month. Photo by Washington State Patrol.

An El Niño Watch continues
March 2014 featured neutral El Niño conditions in the equatorial Eastern Pacific, but NOAA has issued an El Niño Watch for the summer and fall of 2014, giving a greater than 50% chance that an El Niño event will occur by the summer. The April 10 El Niño discussion from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center noted that "there remains considerable uncertainty as to when El Niño will develop and how strong it may become. This uncertainty is amplified by the inherently lower forecast skill of the models for forecasts made in the spring." None of the El Niño models (updated in mid-April 2014) predict La Niña conditions for peak hurricane season, August-September-October 2014, and 16 of 20 predict El Niño conditions. Temperatures in the equatorial Eastern Pacific need to be 0.5°C above average or warmer for three consecutive months for an El Niño episode to be declared; sea surface temperatures were +0.2°C from average as of April 21. El Niño conditions tend to make quieter than average Atlantic hurricane seasons, due to an increase in upper-level winds that create strong wind shear over the Tropical Atlantic. There is currently a Westerly Wind Burst (WWB) over the equatorial Pacific Ocean that is helping push warm water eastwards towards South America. If this Westerly Wind Burst persists and expands eastwards through early May, the odds of an El Niño event will increase.

Arctic sea ice falls to 5th lowest March extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during March was 5th lowest in the 36-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The winter maximum extent of Arctic sea ice came on March 21, and was the 5th lowest such peak on record. Temperatures in the Arctic were 2 - 6°C (4 -11°F) above average during the last half of the month, but a late-season surge in ice extent came as the Arctic Oscillation turned strongly positive the second week of March, with unusually low sea level pressure in the eastern Arctic and the northern North Atlantic. The associated pattern of surface winds helped to spread out the ice pack, keeping ice extent greater than it would have been. There was a modest increase in thick, multi-year ice over the winter, and the Arctic is in better shape to resist a record summer melt season this year than it was in 2013.


Figure 2. Regions most at risk of severe weather for the period Saturday, April 26 - Monday, April 28, 2014, as predicted by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center at 4:15 am EDT Wednesday, April 23, 2014.

Weekend tornado and severe weather outbreak coming for the Plains
A significant multi-day severe weather event is expected Saturday, Sunday, and Monday across the Central U.S. A strong low pressure system will trundle slowly across the region, spawning supercell thunderstorms capable of generating large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes. The action will begin Saturday afternoon along a swath from Central Texas northwards into Oklahoma and Kansas, then gradually shift eastwards on Sunday and Monday. Recent runs of the GFS and European model have been very consistent in showing moderate to extreme instability in the warm air ahead of the storm's cold front Saturday through Monday, and this weekend's severe weather outbreak has the potential to be the most dangerous one of this relatively quiet 2014. This year has yet to spawn a killer tornado, setting a new record for latest date of the year's first killer tornado. The previous record belonged to 2002, when the year's first killer tornado struck April 21 (an F-3 that killed a man in a mobile home in a rural area of Wayne County, Illinois.) The relatively cool and dry weather across Tornado Alley so far this year has led to no EF-3 or stronger tornadoes as of April 23, and that's also a record-long wait since modern tornado records began in 1950. According to tornado historian Tom Grazulis' book, Significant Tornadoes 1680-1991, "serious efforts" to document all tornadoes began in 1953, which was the first full year of tornado watches issued by the U.S. Weather Bureau, now the National Weather Service.

I'll have a new post on Friday.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 857. oldnewmex:

Could be a little nasty driving over Donner Pass tonight and tomorrow morning, but I don't care.
SNOW!!!

Greater Lake Tahoe Area


Winter Weather Advisory



Statement as of 2:44 PM PDT on April 24, 2014



... Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect from 11 PM this
evening to 11 PM PDT Friday...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow remains in effect from 11 PM
this evening to 11 PM PDT Friday.

* Timing: snow will begin around the Tahoe basin by midnight
with periods of moderate to heavy snow showers through Friday
evening.

* Snow accumulations: up to 5 inches at lake level... with 5 to 10
inches near and above 7000 feet.

* Snow levels: starting at 7000 to 7500 feet this evening then
falling to lake level overnight.

* Impacts: slick and snow covered roads with low visibility
late tonight and Friday morning... especially over passes.
Roads will likely clear by mid to late morning Friday for
improved travel... however roads are expected to become slick
and snow covered again by early evening Friday as the sun
sets.


Woot! Yeah, I've been watching. We even had our five or six raindrops for the week today.
1002. ncstorm
Quoting 998. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Someone uploaded KFOR coverage of the May 3, 1999 F5 Moore, Oklahoma tornado 2 months ago. I know how I'll be spending the rest of my night.




TA..back in 1999 KFOR didnt know people shouldnt take shelter under a bridge or overpass??..great video!!
April 25, 2011 - And so begins the largest and one of the deadliest tornado outbreaks in United States history. A total of 42 tornadoes are confirmed on this date, including 5 deaths.

Quoting 999. LAbonbon:

Anyone notice that WU's page for "Map of U.S. NEXRAD and TDWR Radar Stations" is screwy? I clicked on a few stations to look at lightening in hurricane2018's area (AL and MS). Not one of the stations surrounding him is showing the correct location, and are showing stations from other states.




Okay, I checked all the radar stations in LA, MS, AL, SE TX, and the FL panhandle. None of them are showing the correct location. I randomly clicked on a few in New England and CA, and they don't bring up anything at all.

Anyone know where the blog to report things is located?
Quoting 992. wxchaser97:


The fact that more than just a few people truly believe this stuff is alarming.


i dont get it.... dont they know tornadoes have occured for billions (maybe, i dont know the facts on tornadoes in the precambrian) of years. Its ridiculous to think all severe weather is created by the government.
Quoting ncstorm:


TA..back in 1999 KFOR didnt know people shouldnt take shelter under a bridge or overpass??..great video!!


Failure to understand a basic physics law. When a fluid enters a restricted area, the fluid must speed up as it passes through. Overpasses act as the restriction, so the wind increases velocity (and therefore force applied) as it passes through the overpass. Anyone underneath can get sucked out or hit by flying debris.

Unfortunately, that myth still permeates society.
1008. flsky
I've got a few degrees, as well! Yoo hoo! I imagine a lot of the folks on this blog do also. It's undeniable that, whether some of the regulars on this blog have a degree or not, they're VERY knowledgeable. And the ones who DO, don't really crow about it. Kinda makes a statement of sorts when you do....

Quoting 996. Flakmeister:



Just so you know, I have a Ph.D. in Experimental Particle Physics and have served as a referee for Physical Review Letters....

As for pony pucks, if it smells like horse $h*t then it likely is....
Quoting 996. Flakmeister:



Just so you know, I have a Ph.D. in Experimental Particle Physics and have served as a referee for Physical Review Letters....

As for pony pucks, if it smells like horse $h*t then it likely is....


lol
Quoting 915. Webberweather53:



Lol, I had time for the gym, (I have my own @ home, always love to crank up some Metallica or Led Zeppelin for some pump-up music on my I-pod). Oh, in case anyone cares, I play hockey & I have went to USA Hockey Nationals on 3 separate occasions & have won Gold, Silver, & Bronze in the process on 3 separate occasions (Gold-2013, Silver-2009, Bronze-2010) w/ 3 separate hockey teams (Greensboro Stars, Carolina Jr. Hurricanes, & the East Coast Eagles, what are the odds of that happening? Lol...



Then of course I had to submit a project to the North Carolina state science fair & now I have found myself in seemingly endless research. Anyway, I thought you'd really like what I have so far. From what I've analyzed so far, southern Louisiana w/ Carmen (1974), Cindy (2005), Gustav (2008) along with other tropical storms that have hit southern Louisiana in phase 2, it undoubtedly appears to be one of the prime targets for landfalls in phase 2 of the MJO along w/ pretty much the entire Caribbean, especially Hispaniola...

MJO phase 1 tropical cyclone tracks 1974-2013


MJO phase 2 tropical cyclone tracks 1974-2013


Could we see another landfall in LA this year?
Quoting 1006. nwobilderburg:



i dont get it.... dont they know tornadoes have occured for billions (maybe, i dont know the facts on tornadoes in the precambrian) of years. Its ridiculous to think all severe weather is created by the government.


It's ridiculous to think any severe weather is created by the government.
Quoting 1010. Andrebrooks:

Could we see another landfall in LA this year?


I hope. Especially since I'm actually going to have a car to chase it now.
Quoting 1012. KoritheMan:



I hope. Especially since I'm actually going to have a car to chase it now.


look what the cat dragged in
1014. zampaz
Quoting Webberweather53:


I disagree on the premise that this man has a "significant" influence on the climate system & such science can be quantified as entirely settled, but, I clearly acknowledge we have some sort of effect (as do many skeptics), but to the precise extent I have yet to discern in the theory.

Definitely satisfies the rationale that the more you know, the more you realize you don't know...

Webberweather53, Physics is all about energy and relative potentials. w/r to gravitational or electromagnetic interactions of planets with the Sun, you can do some fun napkin math with your slide rule...err calculator...err spreadsheet. Gravitational/Electromagnetic influence of one body on another will be proportional to 1/r^2 where r is the distance between the bodies.
The key is understanding effect of the square of the radius and you don't really need the force constants.
Webberweather53 you should do the arithmetic, using distance and relative masses of each planet to determine which would have the greatest gravitational influence on the sun; Jupiter, Uranus, Earth, Venus...and you can use the same inverse relation to determine if the Sun or moon has a potentially greater effect on Earth (you).
From the gravitational forces you determine you can quickly infer what kind of electromagnetic potential Sun/Uranus would have to have to influence sunspot activity, assuming Uranus could possibly influence electromagnetic storms on the ball of plasma that is our sun...it's fun, do the arithmetic and impress your friends ;)
-z
I lurk the wunderground
nuwu scripts broken in Firefox :(
never forget the "power" of the inverse square law



May see an actual tornado threat tomorrow, should be a good time.

Do you think we will see any landfalls this year.
Quoting 1014. zampaz:


Webberweather53, Physics is all about energy and relative potentials. w/r to gravitational or electromagnetic interactions of planets with the Sun, you can do some fun napkin math with your slide rule...err calculator...err spreadsheet. Gravitational/Electromagnetic influence of one body on another will be proportional to 1/r^2 where r is the distance between the bodies.
The key is understanding effect of the square of the radius and you don't really need the force constants.
Webberweather53 you should do the arithmetic, using distance and relative masses of each planet to determine which would have the greatest gravitational influence on the sun; Jupiter, Uranus, Earth, Venus...and you can use the same inverse relation to determine if the Sun or moon has a potentially greater effect on Earth (you).
From the gravitational forces you determine you can quickly infer what kind of electromagnetic potential Sun/Uranus would have to have to influence sunspot activity, assuming Uranus could possibly influence electromagnetic storms on the ball of plasma that is our sun...it's fun, do the arithmetic and impress your friends ;)
-z
I lurk the wunderground
nuwu scripts broken in Firefox :(
never forget the "power" of the inverse square law






F = G x M1M2/r^2
The answers are very tiny
Quoting 1016. Andrebrooks:

Do you think we will see any landfalls this year.


Nope, 0. Book it.
Quoting KoritheMan:


It's ridiculous to think any severe weather is created by the government.


Hey, all that hot air in DC rises, condenses, releases latent heat, and sometimes creates severe storms of political fury that can shut down the nation.

I answered your question.
1020. sar2401
Quoting Flakmeister:


Just so you know, I have a Ph.D. in Experimental Particle Physics and have served as a referee for Physical Review Letters....

As for pony pucks, if it smells like horse $h*t then it likely is....

Wow. I'm impressed. I guess you must have been off today, since you had so much time to set everyone here straight. I've never known anyone with a PhD in Experimental Particle Physics before. I have known a few people that had advanced degrees in various other types of physics though. The one thing they all had in common, however, was the ability to write without sounding like a 16 year old that hasn't had a roll in the hay in a while. But maybe that's just me.
1021. no1der
Hmm... then either a renowned troll-slayer has joined, or one who claims to have her very specific credentials... ;-)
Quoting 996. Flakmeister:



Just so you know, I have a Ph.D. in Experimental Particle Physics and have served as a referee for Physical Review Letters....

As for pony pucks, if it smells like horse $h*t then it likely is....

1022. sar2401
Quoting LAbonbon:


Okay, I checked all the radar stations in LA, MS, AL, SE TX, and the FL panhandle. None of them are showing the correct location. I randomly clicked on a few in New England and CA, and they don't bring up anything at all.

Anyone know where the blog to report things is located?

I don't have it handy but, if you go back in the blogs to where the new site was announced, there's a link there. I've reported a couple of things there. I've never received a reply and none of them are fixed. But, have a ball, at least it will make you feel better without requiring much effort from them. :-)
1023. sar2401
Quoting nonblanche:


No argument here.

I'd have no problem selling a goat by live weight and doing the basic safe, sanitary prep - where a buyer picks up the carcass in whatever state of process he or she prefers. I know how. Yet the USDA has issues with that sort of family farm. Nevada recently has loosened some of the poultry requirements, I don't recall the details but it can at least make life that much easier for poultry people. However, small livestock - once you tack on the processing costs most meat houses charge - are not really worthwhile for people. This makes anything larger more cost effective, and tilts the field in favor of cattle and pigs. (And if a local processor closes down, anyone with impending delivery is thoroughly machine-threaded and either have to ship their cattle further out, or are then completely restricted from having their cattle go to market. At all. This happened in Northern California I believe, last year.)

We have never had the situation come up - we eat our own goats - but the hispanic/other ethnic market base doesn't generally have anything to do with the USDA. The cost of maintaining a seperate bathroom for the inspector is just the start.

It's really quite amazing what the USDA makes farmers go through yet we continue to have regular outbreaks of salmonella at large corporate farm processing plants like Tyson. Assuming Tyson would buy poultry from you (and they wouldn't), you could deliver it in perfectly sanitary shape and they'd be the highly regulated plant that would add the salmonella. Having several relatives in farming, my experience has been that the regulations are there to bludgeon small to medium farmers who are getting too competitive while gigantic corporate farms can pretty much do what they want, since they have the "unclassified" line item in their budget to make sure those inspectors don't start acting up. My skin starts to crawl when I hear people say we need to give the government more money to make (whatever) safer, cleaner better...just insert the right catch phrase, maybe with some videos to go along with the fund raising pleas. The one agency that's probably been in the regulating business longer than any existing agency (USDA) is also one of the most corrupt. Go figure.
Quoting 1002. ncstorm:



TA..back in 1999 KFOR didnt know people shouldnt take shelter under a bridge or overpass??..great video!!

Nope. The Moore tornado is actually what changed that, though. The tornado killed 3 people and injured many others underneath an overpass.
Next SPC outlook for Saturday comes out in less than 40 minutes. Tough call tonight on whether to issue a Moderate risk. It's looking like we may see an enhanced risk for tornadoes between 0z-3z as the nocturnal low-level jet kicks in, the upper-level trough arrives with enhanced forcing for ascent, and the dewpoint depression lowers some after peak heating. The exact timing here is key, however.

Another thing to keep in mind:

Gabe Garfield ‏@WxGabe 3h
Soundings at CRP & BRO show mean mixing ratios from 14.5 - 15.5 g/kg and ~150 mb deep - substantially higher than forecast.

Deeper moisture than the NAM/GFS are depicting for this time.
1026. sar2401
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Very likely yes. There was a dual pol TDS. Because it wasn't reported by a storm spotter or emergency managers, or law enforcement, there wouldn't be a LSR to populate the SPC site.

Remember, the SPC site is just the preliminary totals; the WFOs do storm surveys which help them populate StormData, which is the official record for severe weather.

I asked this question several days back, when we had a gravity wave wind event right after the last of the rain shield went though Sunday. There were at least two reports from both law enforcement and EMA reporting 40-50 mph winds with trees and power lines down. I heard it on the scanner as it was happening. Birmingham carried the damage as a storm report the next day on their web site. I never (or at least up until two days ago) saw it mentioned in the SPC summary. I would think enough time has passed to make the reports not preliminary now. Was the ball dropped by BMX or what? This is not the first time this has happened.
Day 2 Slight, with the SPC noting the issues I pointed out.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID-MO VALLEY TO THE
SRN PLAINS...

..SUMMARY

ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED
FROM THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS ON
SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY. LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD.

..SYNOPSIS

A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL SHIFT INLAND
BY EARLY SAT. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL PROGRESS FROM SRN CA
TO THE LEE OF THE SRN ROCKIES WITH A COMPACT SPEED MAX ACROSS THE
DESERT SW EJECTING ONTO THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS EARLY SUN. THESE
FEATURES WILL INDUCE LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER ERN CO WITH A WARM FRONT
ARCING EWD NEAR THE MO VALLEY. THE DRYLINE SHOULD MIX EWD INTO CNTRL
KS AND ACROSS W TX...BEFORE RETREATING WWD DURING THE EVENING. A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD AND EVENTUALLY OVERTAKE THE
DRYLINE IN THE SRN HIGH PLAINS EARLY SUN.

..CNTRL/SRN PLAINS

IN THE WAKE OF A RECENT COLD FRONT INTRUSION TO NEAR THE TX GULF
COASTAL PLAIN...MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE SHOULD BE CONFINED TO TX AT
12Z/SAT. ROBUST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY AS FLOW STRENGTHENS BENEATH A STOUT EML. THIS SHOULD YIELD A
BROADENING PLUME OF MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS FROM
PARTS OF THE MID/LOWER MO VALLEY SWD TO THE WRN GULF COAST BY SAT
EVENING.

INTENSE SURFACE HEATING WILL OCCUR ALONG/W OF THE DRYLINE WITH UPPER
80S TO MIDDLE 90S TEMPERATURES FROM CNTRL KS TO W TX. AS WEAK
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE DRYLINE NEAR 00Z...LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW DISCRETE
STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD INITIALLY BE HIGH-BASED WITH SURFACE
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AOA 30 DEG F.
VERY STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
RATES ALONG WITH A MODERATE COMBINATION OF BUOYANCY/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS PRIMARILY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL /SOME
SIGNIFICANT/ AND LOCALLY SEVERE WINDS.

STRONG WARM SECTOR INHIBITION DOES RENDER SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY IN
OVERALL STORM COVERAGE/SUSTAINABILITY AND TORNADO POTENTIAL DURING
THE EVENING.
GUIDANCE VARIES SUBSTANTIALLY WITH THE DEGREE OF
CONVECTIVE SIGNAL FROM THE MINIMALIST NAM/UKMET TO WIDESPREAD GFS.
GIVEN A RETREATING DRYLINE SCENARIO AND LARGER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS HOLDING OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW
CONVECTION MAY ULTIMATELY EVOLVE. BUT WITH A LLJ STRENGTHENING TO
AOA 50 KT ALONG WITH AN INFLUX OF RICHER MOISTURE...ANY SUSTAINED
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN STORMS MAY PRODUCE A TORNADO BEFORE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLES.


AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT STRENGTHENS SUBSTANTIALLY EARLY SUN...ELEVATED
TSTMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE MID-MO VALLEY TO THE SUN
PLAINS WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING A LARGE HAIL THREAT. SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BECOME SURFACE-BASED ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS...WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE
60S...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS.

..GRAMS.. 04/25/2014

1028. sar2401
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Oh boy, everybody put on their tinfoil hats!


Yes, the Massive tornado outbreak predicted by the pros...although I missed the massive part and the HAARP part in the discussion. The original Massive story came from the Atlantic Wire, which, along with Slate, has morphed into weather forecast sites when I wasn't looking.
1029. zampaz
Quoting no1der:
Hmm... then either a renowned troll-slayer has joined, or one who claims to have her very specific credentials... ;-)


There are a lot of physics geeks on this site...isn't it grand?
And because physics geeks tend to get a bit huffy when confronted with stoopid, it just adds to the fun. Almost as much fun as tin foil hats and spray bottles of vinegar (remind me to buy stock in Alcoa and Heinz).
Hmm
Looks like it's gonna get real wet in our area soon


Quoting 1022. sar2401:


I don't have it handy but, if you go back in the blogs to where the new site was announced, there's a link there. I've reported a couple of things there. I've never received a reply and none of them are fixed. But, have a ball, at least it will make you feel better without requiring much effort from them. :-)


Thanks, found it, and reported it. We shall see...
Quoting 1008. flsky:

I've got a few degrees, as well! Yoo hoo! I imagine a lot of the folks on this blog do also. It's undeniable that, whether some of the regulars on this blog have a degree or not, they're VERY knowledgeable. And the ones who DO, don't really crow about it. Kinda makes a statement of sorts when you do....




Outlining my credentials was only to point out that I have seen just about every "shake and hustle" you can see performed with a data set....

And people playing games with short term atmospheric temperature trends fall into the "shake and hustle" category. They are either ignorant fools or calculating liars....

As was alluded to earlier, if people are "skeptical" about AGW want to debate policy, mitigation, adaptation, or regional effects, bring it on. But the premise is not under debate, the issue has been settled in the minds of the real experts for some time now...
I have been reading this blog for many many years..am curious and fascinated about weather..now and then I see some one who storms in upholding all the 'facts' in the science community and in my opinion I always ask why? ..obviously we have made a mess of things with pollutants and what? No repercussions..? This ain't brain surgery..We live on a very very small planet and we have out masked our self sustainability.. Without changing our ways as a human species why is this an argument?
1034. zampaz
1032: Flakmeister; well said.
1033 Quoting Wolfberry:
I have been reading this blog for many many years..am curious and fascinated about weather..now and then I see some one who storms in upholding all the 'facts' in the science community and in my opinion I always ask why? ..obviously we have made a mess of things with pollutants and what? No repercussions..? This ain't brain surgery..We live on a very very small planet and we have out masked our self sustainability.. Without changing our ways as a human species why is this an argument?

You don't need a degree in physics to see the changes in the Arctic.
http://climate.nasa.gov/news/986
But when the "Merchants of Doubt", specific "institutions" (fancy ad agencies) are funded by fossil fuel interests to spread disinformation, confusion, and public controversy where there should be no controversy; there is justified reason for outrage.

Those equipped with the tools of science (Rood's gang) are quick to refute the politically motivated pseudoscience propaganda with the tools of science they know...and this can be intimidating to those community members who don't understand the maths scientists use as tools and don't relish the details of the rebuttals.

A picture of a polar bear on an ice flow, the flooding in Germany, or the drought in West Texas may do more to convey understanding of the impact of CC on our biosphere...
Having said that perhaps some members will endeavor to learn about what one or two standard deviations means, err, standard deviations besides tin foil hats and using vinegar to dissipate chemtrails:)

I didn't know any thing scientifically and remember back in the days when I was just upset just cause so much is obvious..I don't care what venue outside of critical thinking one takes..politics, religion, science, it don't really matter ..It took me years of sitting back watching the arguments here. I'm just curious at a certain point at the thought pattern why people can still think the earth is flat.
Quoting 1034. zampaz:

1032: Flakmeister; well said.

You don't need a degree in physics to see the changes in the Arctic.
http://climate.nasa.gov/news/986
But when the "Merchants of Doubt", specific "institutions" (fancy ad agencies) are funded by fossil fuel interests to spread disinformation, confusion, and public controversy where there should be no controversy; there is justified reason for outrage.

Those equipped with the tools of science (Rood's gang) are quick to refute the politically motivated pseudoscience propaganda with the tools of science they know...and this can be intimidating to those community members who don't understand the maths scientists use as tools and don't relish the details of the rebuttals.

A picture of a polar bear on an ice flow, the flooding in Germany, or the drought in West Texas may do more to convey understanding of the impact of CC on our biosphere...
Having said that perhaps some members will endeavor to learn about what one or two standard deviations means, err, standard deviations besides tin foil hats and using vinegar to dissipate chemtrails:)





I have read for years this blog and Ricky's ..Ricky was refreshing and I thought could give light which it did to me on some pretty simple truth..it's like all the doubters still cling to God created the world in 6 days and rested on the 7th. OK.. sounds like fact to me..
It's taken me a long time to comment here but now and then a little common sense combined with obvious historic facts must prevail.
1038. LargoFl
Good Morning!.......................................... .....................................
Good morning to you Largo ..I always love your Florida updates . I live in high desert Arizona so it's easy to understand why...
Quoting 159. Birthmark:



You might note that the IPCC was founded in 1988, well before the majority of us had heard of AGW or CC.

Not only that but Gilbert Plass published a paper in 1956 titled "The Carbon Dioxide Theory of Climatic Change".
Quoting 213. Webberweather53:



Since the supposed warming from the 1997-98 el Nino to the present in all of those datasets doesn't exceed the 2 standard deviation margin of error (even w/ GISS), no statistically significant warming has taken place since the 1997-98 El Nino...

Since the 1997/1998 El Nino year was an extreme outlier it's disingenuous and cherry picking to start from then.
Webberweather53: I highly doubt you are up this early being a high school-er but you strike me as a really smart guy. You just came on in complete deference to so many established facts. I like the debate arena. I am by know means intellectually digressing you ..it is just when I see the intelligence you put forth in your first posts I'm troubled without the facts you pursue your downplay on CC..no disrespect whatsoever..
1043. Gearsts
Is finally happening?
Quoting 1042. Wolfberry:

Webberweather53: I highly doubt you are up this early being a high school-er but you strike me as a really smart guy. You just came on in complete deference to so many established facts. I like the debate arena. I am by know means intellectually digressing you ..it is just when I see the intelligence you put forth in your first posts I'm troubled without the facts you pursue your downplay on CC..no disrespect whatsoever..


"I am by know means intellectually digressing you"?????

"i'm troubled without the facts you pursue your downplay on CC"?????


I haven't a clue what any of that means. Is English your first language?
1045. MahFL
No Mod risk for tomorrow ? What happened to the certain High risk ?
Good morning. Day 3 SPC outlook (Sunday). A rare Day 3 moderate risk-



Discussion

Days 4-5 (Monday/Tuesday)-



Discussion
Quoting 1043. Gearsts:

Is finally happening?



I would not say is a definite trend towards warming of Nino 1+2 but at least is a good sign. I would wait another week to see how it does.
1048. yoboi
Quoting 1044. yonzabam:


"I am by know means intellectually digressing you"?????

"i'm troubled without the facts you pursue your downplay on CC"?????


I haven't a clue what any of that means. Is English your first language?


Is it yours?????
1049. zampaz
Quoting Gearsts:
Is finally happening?

derp...
"Wait for it...wait for it...Almost there..."
"I can't hold, I'm breaking off..."

-because I thought Patrap would say something like this.



yonzabam

"I am by know means intellectually digressing you"?????

"i'm troubled without the facts you pursue your downplay on CC"?????


I haven't a clue what any of that means. Is English your first language?


Yes English is my first language..it just struck me as Weber being within the realm of realistic with strong climatology background..and then he says he is in high school .. which gives me more admiration..it's obvious the guy is smart and by his own admission has read the Doc's blog for years as I have.. there are many of us who regularly read and study ..not as old as Gro but not young either.. my point is so much science has been presented and we keep arguing the world is flat ..not we you guys..what is the big CC argument about? No offense ..but anybody with a bit of critical thinking skills could easily come to the agreement we are making a mess of the planet..we meaning the human species at large in the industrial/petroleum age

The double day threat for Dixie Alley is absolutely terrifying. If current models verify, we could be looking at back-to-back days of very significant severe weather across the exact same areas on Monday and Tuesday.
1052. MahFL
Quoting 1051. Ameister12:

The double day threat for Dixie Alley is absolutely terrifying.


I have told you a million times not to exaggerate !
Strong system in the Caribbean on the 06 GFS.


1054. ncstorm
Good Morning..strong line will move through eastern NC today..



...DISCUSSION...
...MULTI-DAY SEVERE EPISODE SHOULD CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY
FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK INCLUDING STRONG TORNADOES...

ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. ECMWF/GFS/UKMET/CMC ARE RATHER
CONSISTENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF INTENSE MID-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA
ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO D5/TUE. THESE WINDS
WILL OVERSPREAD PARTS OF A BROAD WARM/MOIST SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY
60S SURFACE DEW POINTS. DESPITE MULTIPLE DAYS OF EXTENSIVE WARM
SECTOR CONVECTION...DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH W/SWLYS IN THE
MID-LEVELS SHOULD RECHARGE/STEEPEN LAPSE RATES...POTENTIALLY
YIELDING MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON. OF THE TWO
DAYS HIGHLIGHTED...D5/TUE APPEARS TO HAVE SLIGHTLY GREATER OUTBREAK
POTENTIAL WITH A 90+ KT 500-MB JET EJECTING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH.


hey to NW GA, and exactly where I outlined yesterday
As usual the biggest threat should die out before reaching here.
Arkansas and Missippi are going to really get it. LA and TN in on it too with AL getting action also

Quoting 1029. zampaz:


There are a lot of physics geeks on this site...isn't it grand?
And because physics geeks tend to get a bit huffy when confronted with stoopid, it just adds to the fun. Almost as much fun as tin foil hats and spray bottles of vinegar (remind me to buy stock in Alcoa and Heinz).


What's the difference between a physicist and a meteorologist? Meteorologists have more fun ;)
1058. MahFL
Quoting 1053. StormTrackerScott:

Strong system in the Caribbean on the 06 GFS.>


Oh come on Scott do we really need to see charts out 300 hours this early in the year ?
roaring at 925mb

Savior right now is that greatest shear rotates through at night. Winds are still significant as shear increases both days, but the nighttime shear values are incredible.

Quoting 1011. KoritheMan:



It's ridiculous to think any severe weather is created by the government.


Back in the good old days, people at least used to blame things they didn't understand on higher powers like God, demons, etc...

Now its the government, severe weather? must be the government, people are poor? Must be the government, people are evil? Must be the government.

Conclusion, we shouldn't govern ourselves, its evil, unless of course there is a criminal, or we have to call upon a big old army, or people need financial aid, then all of the sudden people went there big bad ole government back.
So far day 4 looks great. Day 5 has much better 500mb shear, but is more uncertain. Looks like CAPE/SHEAR should be better overall, but both days could easily rival each other in slightly different centering points.
Yikes

both days with great surace based CAPE and an eroding cap.



Quoting 1053. StormTrackerScott:

Strong system in the Caribbean on the 06 GFS.





Timeframe keeps pushing back since GFS showed the first run about it as it was May 3rd and now is May 9th. Go figure.
Quoting 1063. Tropicsweatherpr:



Timeframe keeps pushing back since GFS showed the first run about it as it was May 3rd and now is May 9th. Go figure.


cough convective feedback cough
At least I'll be off Monday and Tuesday. Hoping to capture some good storms from this. I'm in the SPC's D5 bullseye.
Hey guys I've been tracking GFSs past couple of runs it does bring back the W Caribbean storm Idea and tracking the time slots to see if there is any consistency so far there is consistency but gonna need a lot more runs
The most interesting thing about the 06Z is tracking the 850mb vort for this forecasted Carib system the vort can actually be tracked back up to around 186 hrs to 204hrs which technically would bring this in than our dream land 300 hrs mark
But we will have to wait for a lot more model runs if this does continue with consistency through next week going into weekend we do need to consider the real possibility that this may not be a ghost system
Quoting 1066. wunderkidcayman:
 
so far there is consistency
There is? I don't know about your definition of consistency, but mine isn't exactly "pushing hypothetical storm back a week".
I'm not expecting it, but the GFS storm could happen. It probably won't, it's probably a ghost, but the fact is that this is exactly how early season and preseason developments happen, a fairly strong MJO pulse moving into our part of the world with conditions in place that, while marginal, could allow for tropical cyclone formation. However, if it happens, watch for it to be in the East Pac, not the Atlantic. I think it's still a bit too early for the Atlantic, but we're really closing in on East Pac season. The CMC and it's ensembles have continued to hint at this and last night's 18z GFS also showed East Pac development. We'll just have to wait and see what future runs show.

Quoting 1068. MAweatherboy1:

I'm not expecting it, but the GFS storm could happen. It probably won't, it's probably a ghost, but the fact is that this is exactly how early season and preseason developments happen, a fairly strong MJO pulse moving into our part of the world with conditions in place that, while marginal, could allow for tropical cyclone formation. However, if it happens, watch for it to be in the East Pac, not the Atlantic. I think it's still a bit too early for the Atlantic, but we're really closing in on East Pac season. The CMC and it's ensembles have continued to hint at this and last night's 18z GFS also showed East Pac development. We'll just have to wait and see what future runs show.
I agree about the EPAC.
MJO pulse or not, lowering pressure is common across the western Caribbean during May/June. The GFS is likely responding to that, albeit perhaps a little more aggressively than normal due to the anticipated approach of the MJO.

Either way, the EPAC will kick off soon enough.
Quoting 1053. StormTrackerScott:
Strong system in the Caribbean on the 06 GFS.




Hi Scott-

A system already? Is the GFS ' all there'?
Would be kinda funny though if the Arthur of 2014 originated in the western Caribbean like Arthur of 2008. They would have further commonality for each of them developing during the month of May.

teehee
Quoting 1063. Tropicsweatherpr:



Timeframe keeps pushing back since GFS showed the first run about it as it was May 3rd and now is May 9th. Go figure.

I have to correct you there timeframe is not pushing back

First time round GFS had a system then dropped it then brought up this new system so far it's keeping with the timeframe

New system at 300hrs


New system at 300hrs on the next run


Now if it was pushing back the timeframe you would see the same thing or something similar at the same hrs
Quoting 1038. LargoFl:

Good Morning!.......................................... .....................................
Morning, Largo.... WAIT!!! is that a blue line and 2 red Ls in the California area?!?!
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I have to correct you there timeframe is not pushing back

First time round GFS had a system then dropped it then brought up this new system so far it's keeping with the timeframe

New system at 300hrs


New system at 300hrs on the next run


Now if it was pushing back the timeframe you would see the same thing or something similar at the same hrs


Then we can call them ghost storms. They show up at 300 hour time frames and then disappear.

Last season, the GFS produced a system on almost every run in the 300 hour range.

Anyway I want to see what 12Z and 18Z shows to better determine if it's truly following the timeframe and then we would need to see if that trend continues during the next couple of days
What GFS show makes sense because the arrival of the MJO in the area is the same time as this development and most of the May systems do develop between May 10 and May 30
Quoting 1075. Sfloridacat5:



Then we can call them ghost storms. They show up at 300 hour time frames and then disappear.

Last season, the GFS produced a system on almost every run in the 300 hour range.



Actually this latest run shows it before 300hrs and infact 850mb vort signatures can be tracked back to 204hrs the run before this latest one was just on the 300 hrs mark so maybe not a ghost system but we have to see more runs first
Another thing what you are saying about GFS last season is not true yeah it did produce systems in 300 hrs range but maybe is some runs but not every run or almost in every
1078. hydrus
Quoting 1051. Ameister12:

The double day threat for Dixie Alley is absolutely terrifying. If current models verify, we could be looking at back-to-back days of very significant severe weather across the exact same areas on Monday and Tuesday.
I,m not diggin it..I hope the models are overplaying this..I believe by Saturday night or Sunday morning they will have it pinned down on the severity and seriousness of the system. The latest GFS has us getting over 6 inches of rain here on the plateau.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Actually this latest run shows it before 300hrs and infact 850mb vort signatures can be tracked back to 204hrs the run before this latest one was just on the 300 hrs mark so maybe not a ghost system but we have to see more runs first
Another thing what you are saying about GFS last season is not true yeah it did produce systems in 300 hrs range but maybe is some runs but not every run or almost in every


It sure seemed like it towards the end of nearly every run. The GFS has this thing about spinning up systems towards the end of its runs. It does it all the time and everyone is well aware of it.
It just seems to go along with the model.

But when you start getting down under 300 hours, then I would take a longer look.

The GFS is still my favorite model in the short to medium time frame and it has proven to be very good. I have seen the GFS pull off very long predictions in the 14 day time frame but not too often.

What's funny is when I spoke with the Cheif Meteorologist here at ABC7, he said he really doesn't trust the GFS past about 3-5 days. But he is in competition with other meteorologists for the "most accurate" forecaster in the area.
I find development in the Caribbean in the upcoming weeks to be unlikely. GFS seems to do this every year with an MJO pulse going through. Development, if any, will probably be in the EPAC.
1081. LargoFl
Quoting 1074. BahaHurican:

Morning, Largo.... WAIT!!! is that a blue line and 2 red Ls in the California area?!?!
yeah alot of fronts moving in
1082. LargoFl
first week of may still storming up on the gulf coast,no time to dry out up there.................................
1083. LargoFl
gee the rivers there sure must be full by now,rains just keep coming to the same region........................
yahoo news posted that this severe outbreak is compared to one that happened in 1991 of course I tried to find it again & it seems to be missing. I don't think I like yahoo news too tabloidee. TWC has had my areas current temp at 69 degrees for 2 days.
Quoting 1084. WaterWitch11:

yahoo news posted that this severe outbreak is compared to one that happened in 1991 of course I tried to find it again & it seems to be missing. I don't think I like yahoo news too tabloidee. TWC has had my areas current temp at 69 degrees for 2 days.


Well, this weekend's forecast event is on the same day and in the same place as the 1991 outbreak. Hopefully, the similarity will end there. This, from NOAA -

Residents of the Plains states are no stranger to severe thunderstorms and tornadoes during the spring months, with April and May being the peak tornado months particularly for areas in the Southern and Central Plains region. While the occurrence of tornadoes in Oklahoma, Kansas, or Nebraska on any given April 26th would not be surprising to most people, the areal extent and violence of the tornado outbreak on April 26th in 1991 would stun even life-long residents of the region. On that day, tornadoes ravaged the Plains from morning until after dark, affecting areas from east Texas as far north as the Iowa/Minnesota border. Fifty-five total tornadoes developed, thirty of which were rated an F2 or greater on the Fujita scale. Unfortunately, twenty-one people %u2013 seventeen from one storm alone %u2013 died that day as a direct result of the severe weather.
I remember GFS did this last year.It kept showing a storm system every 300 hours out pushing the time frame back over and over again until finally May 30 we got under 300 hours.That's when Andrea came along.lol.So if it's showing a storm May 9th I expect the storm to form June 9th.
Quoting 1054. ncstorm:

Good Morning..strong line will move through eastern NC today..


Morning NC... looks like a fairly significant snow event for the Rockies, as well... for April.

Quoting 1063. Tropicsweatherpr:



Timeframe keeps pushing back since GFS showed the first run about it as it was May 3rd and now is May 9th. Go figure.
Typical for this time of year... we should expect some early activity... though I currently doubt a named system will form, I also expect to see increased moisture in that area. Maybe we'll actually get a TD out of it before 15 May.

Frankly I'm surprised we haven't been talking more about the tropics and what to expect. There are only 5 days left in April... we're almost in the pre-season!
FLOODING: This is a very real possibility. The ECMWF (European model) tries to bring some 8 inch rain totals to Central Alabama by Wednesday, with amounts of 3 to 4 inches likely in most places. This could lead to some significant flooding problems, especially by Tuesday and Wednesday. People in flood prone areas will need to pay attention to flash flood warnings if they are needed.

GFS pushing 5" in N GA too.
life is like a b picture script. if I had my life story offered to me to film I'd turn it down. - kirk douglas
Link
1090. hydrus
The UKMET
1091. MahFL
Anyways by July we'll be in a Super Elnino so kiss the canes good bye.
1092. MahFL
Quoting 1088. GeorgiaStormz:

GFS pushing 5" in N GA too.


Like the 5 inches that never happened 2 weeks ago in N FL ?
1093. ncstorm
Dr. Forbes doesnt seem impress with the set up for the weekend

Saturday, April 26

Scattered severe thunderstorms and tornadoes likely by and in the evening in south NE, northwest MO, KS except extreme east, west and central OK (excluding west panhandle), east TX panhandle and west TX east of a line from near Childress to Del Rio and as far east at San Antonio and Dallas. TOR:CON - 4 south NE, central KS, west OK, northwest TX; 3 rest of area.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to continue past midnight in these areas and possibly spread into northeast NE, east OK, and northeast TX overnight. TOR:CON - 2 to 3 in these additional areas. At the moment the air looks rather dry and capped (warm layer aloft), which might hold down the tornado threat.

TOR:CON Saturday into Saturday Night

KS central - 4
KS northeast - 3 to 4
KS southeast night - 2 to 3
MO northwest - 3
NE south - 4
NE northeast night - 2 to 3
OK west half excluding west panhandle - 4
OK east night - 2 to 3
TX east panhandle, northwest - 4
TX strip near Childress and Fort Worth to Del Rio and San Antonio - 3
TX northeast night - 2 to 3
other areas - 1 or less
Sunday, April 27

Severe thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes in west and south SD, north and east NE, west and south IA, MO, west-central and south IL, west KY, west TN, extreme northwest MS, AR, northwest LA, east KS, east OK, east TX from east of Dallas to northwest of Houston eastward. TOR:CON - 4 east NE, southwest IA, east KS, MO, east OK, AR, northeast TX; 3 rest of area

TOR:CON Sunday

AR - 4
IA southwest - 4
IA northwest, southeast - 3
IL west-central, south - 3
KS east - 4
KY west - 3
LA northwest - 3
MO - 4
MS northwest - 3
NE east - 4
NE north - 3
OK east - 4
SD west, south - 3
TN west - 3
TX northeast - 4
other areas - 1 or less
Monday, April 28

Severe thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes in southeast SD, southwest MN, north and east IA, IL except northeast, west-central and south IN, west and central KY, west and middle TN, north and west AL, MS, LA, upper-coastal TX, south and east AR, southeast MO. TOR:CON - 5 south IL, southwest IN, west KY, west TN, MS; 4 north and central LA, northwest AL, middle TN, central KY, southeast IN; 3 rest of area

TOR:CON Monday

AL northwest - 4
AL northeast, southwest - 3
IA north, east - 3
IL south - 5
IL central, northwest - 3
IN southwest - 4
IN west-central, southeast - 3
KY west - 5
KY central - 4
LA north - 4
LA southwest - 3
LA southeast - 2 to 3
MN southwest - 3
MO southeast - 3
MS - 5
SD southeast - 3
TN west - 5
TN middle - 4
TX upper-coastal - 2 to 3
other areas - 1 or less

TOR:CON Tuesday

AL - 4
FL west panhandle - 2 to 3
GA northwest - 4
GA central, southwest, northeast - 2 to 3
IL north half - 2 to 3
IN north, central, southeast - 2 to 3
KY east - 3
LA southeast - 2 to 3
MS south - 4
MS east-central - 3
NC west, central, southeast - 2 to 3
OH south - 3
OH northwest - 2 to 3
SC - 2 to 3
TN east - 3
VA southwest - 2 to 3
WV southwest, west-central - 3
other areas - 1 or less
Quoting MahFL:
No Mod risk for tomorrow ? What happened to the certain High risk ?
MahFL, Cold front from Pacific taking its good old time seems to place major forcing after dark (add: i.e. after loss of daytime heating). Also a cold front that moved through the central/southern plains Wednesday may limit the moisture return and moisture contributes to instability.

There is still a good deal of uncertainty in the SPC forecast risk for Sat as far as tornadoes. The day 3-4-5, (Sun-Tues) of more concern.
Quoting Ameister12:
The double day threat for Dixie Alley is absolutely terrifying. If current models verify, we could be looking at back-to-back days of very significant severe weather across the exact same areas on Monday and Tuesday.
Ameister, Quoting your full quote here to show you did quality your "terrifying" statement. (Another blogger quoted you and removed part of your comment showing that.)

A double day threat that far out can be terrifying for sure. Good to turn the fear into preparation and make a plan in case you end up in the crosshairs.
Quoting 1090. hydrus:

The UKMET

Geez... that looks like a massive hook signature over the entire CONUS... :o)

Hope the severe wx is not TOO severe... I'm also wondering if this is the end of the strong westerly fronts we'll see, or whether we can expect a few more into the mid-May period...
Quoting 1057. Jedkins01:



What's the difference between a physicist and a meteorologist? Meteorologists have more fun ;)


are u sure? I wouldn't mind running around that tube thing they have at cern :)
Jackson MS is looking to get hit 3 days in a row.

First as the MCS from the MDT risk tracks east on Day 3 and twice more on Mon/Tue

LARGE CLOCKWISE HODOGRAPHS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WITH
INTENSE ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND STRONG TORNADO POTENTIAL OVER THE DELTA
REGION BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.
IT LOOKS MORE LIKELY THAT THE ZONE OF
GREATER SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL REMAIN MAINLY OVER THE DELTA REGION
SUNDAY EVENING. THEREAFTER...A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM COULD
EVOLVE FROM THE INITIAL SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
IF THIS
HAPPENS WOULD EXPECT COLD POOL GENERATION TO HELP GIVE THE SYSTEM
SOME EASTWARD ACCELERATION ALONG THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR AND MUCH OF THE
AREA NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...WITH THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
ARKLAMISS LIKELY MISSING THIS FIRST ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL AS THE MCS WANES OUT AHEAD OF THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IN A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

AS WE GO INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING...IT WILL TAKE SOMETIME FOR
THE AIRMASS TO RECOVER...BUT EXPECT RE-NEWED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON
AS THE NOSE OF POWERFUL PACIFIC JET ENERGY
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE DEEP CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH AND ENHANCES WIND
SHEAR/LIFT AND THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MIXED
LAYER CAPE > 3000 J/KG COULD HELP MAKE FOR A VOLATILE SET-UP WITH
THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN
. THE INITIAL CONVECTION SHOULD EVENTUALLY
EVOLVE INTO ANOTHER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...AND WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VECTORS BECOMING MORE PARALLEL RESULTING IN GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING AND BACK-BUILDING OF STORMS...THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOODING COULD REALLY RAMP UP MONDAY NIGHT.

WITH THE LARGE SCALE OMEGA-BLOCK OVER OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS
AND A LARGE GYRE REMAINING ANCHORED OVER THE PLAINS/MS VALLEY...THE
SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAIN SCENARIO WILL LIKELY REPEAT ITSELF FOR
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF UPSTREAM
INSTABILITY TO TAP INTO IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY NIGHT`S CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY...ASSUMING THERE IS A BREAK IN THE ACTION. INCREASING LOW
LEVEL SHEAR AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS FROM PRIOR
CONVECTION SUGGEST THAT TORNADOES...POTENTIALLY STRONG...WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN.

1098. VR46L
Quoting 1052. MahFL:



I have told you a million times not to exaggerate !


Quoting 1091. MahFL:

Anyways by July we'll be in a Super Elnino so kiss the canes good bye.


LMAO !!!

Pot kettle Black ; )
Yesterday's storm moves across the Cumberland Flats, Carolinas & mid-atlantic states today..

GEOS-5



This run has mid-next weeks storms looking mean...



1100. Torito
TCFP for the WPAC

Hmmm.... this actually has a rather hopeful look to it.



Hopefully it's one of those soaking events where the rainfall rate doesn't lead to high run-off and extensive flash flooding...
Quoting 1101. BahaHurican:
Hmmm.... this actually has a rather hopeful look to it.



Hopefully it's one of those soaking events where the rainfall rate doesn't lead to high run-off and extensive flash flooding...


We have a 30% chance of precip overnight here in LA. Not holding my breath.

I do enjoy the cloudiness, though. It's supposed to keep our temps below 80 today.
1103. VR46L
Quoting 1100. Torito:

TCFP for the WPAC




Hmmm nothing really to get the teeth sunk into IMO.... at the moment

Quoting 1103. VR46L:



Hmmm nothing really to get the teeth sunk into IMO.... at the moment

Not bad for 6 weeks to the end of the season, though. It hasn't been slow this April so far... maybe we'll see 2 more storms out of this area before it's all done.

SW Indian seems pretty dead for now [MJO has passed?] by comparison.
1105. LargoFl
Dr. Masters, I guess we will just have to wait and see, but I think you're prediction is way off base. The upper level air patterns are not set up to produce tornados and the next lobe of polar air approaching from the Pacific doesn't appear to extend far enough south, either. Since I live on the southern border of Kansas I will keep an eye to the south west and follow the doppler radar out of Wichita, but right now it's doubtful that we'll see anything more than an isolated thunderstorm and then not until late Sunday afternoon.
Quoting 1106. LSAflier:

Dr. Masters, I guess we will just have to wait and see, but I think you're prediction is way off base. The upper level air patterns are not set up to produce tornados and the next lobe of polar air approaching from the Pacific doesn't appear to extend far enough south, either. Since I live on the southern border of Kansas I will keep an eye to the south west and follow the doppler radar out of Wichita, but right now it's doubtful that we'll see anything more than an isolated thunderstorm and then not until late Sunday afternoon.
Please keep in mind this blog was written 2 days ago when models were showing 4000j/kg CAPE in KS and that the Pacific front would bring major forcing for ascent earlier in the day Saturday. Down here where I live (central OK) keeping an eye open and making a weekend plan just in case.
All Nino indexes are now positive, after this sudden jump at 1&2.

1109. hydrus
Quoting 1099. Skyepony:

Yesterday's storm moves across the Cumberland Flats, Carolinas & mid-atlantic states today..

GEOS-5



This run has mid-next weeks storms looking mean...




Good morning Skye..There may be some training of the storms. I am looking to see what region will have the worst flooding. I also hope that the tornado threat will not be as strong as some models are showing.
1110. hydrus
Some folks will get flash flooding.
1111. ricderr
Like the 5 inches that never happened 2 weeks ago in N FL ?


hell...some had hyped it to 10..........5 seems like nothing compared to that
Quoting 1110. hydrus:

Some folks will get flash flooding.

there is going to be some water
1113. ricderr
there is going to be some water


all over the freaking map....well...that is...until to you look at the far west tip of texas......too darn white there....mother needs to give me some color
1114. hydrus
Quoting 1112. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

there is going to be some water

Flash flooding is very dangerous here on the plateau. The roads are treacherous without floods.
Day 3 Moderate risks are a rare thing.

Quoting 1040. riverat544:


Not only that but Gilbert Plass published a paper in 1956 titled "The Carbon Dioxide Theory of Climatic Change".


Svante Arrhenius first published research on anthropogenic climate change in 1896. The earliest work I'm aware of in regards to greenhouse gases was by Joseph Fourier in 1824, who showed that our planet would basically be an ice ball if it wasn't for the gases in our atmosphere.
1117. Grothar
First of all, my heart goes out to everyone who lost friends, family, homes in the Oso, WA landslide.

From Doc M's photo caption for Fig2>>>"The landslide was triggered by record March rains that saturated the soils."
Possibly not a completely weather-related disaster when you consider this:

Fig 2, The WA State Patrol photo of the Oso slide, "clearly" shows clearcutting above and alongside the slide area. Heavy rainfall and the Stillaguamish undercutting the hill of course are factors. So, is could clearcutting on the hillside as shown (be a factor), and, clearcutting upstream could allow more runoff to enter the river, thus increasing the force the river applied to the hill at Oso. In 2007, Oso had a smaller slide in the exact-same place just below the 2014 slide.

Common sense and local knowledge told me clearcutting could be a factor when the fatal landslide occurred. Officials are commenting on it...
Link
While there is no "smoking gun," clear-cutting and river erosion emerge as possible contributors...."Trees act like sponges, catching rain before it hits the ground or soaking it up from the soil. Clear-cut logging could result in as much as a 51 percent increase in the amount of water seeping into the ground, according to the model."..."The question is, 'What was the trigger? What was the threshold that was exceeded?'" Wartman said. "Whether we will be able to know that, I'm not sure."
Link
Add: Link
1119. Grothar
From Earth Observatory

Quoting 1116. Xyrus2000:



Svante Arrhenius first published research on anthropogenic climate change in 1896. The earliest work I'm aware of in regards to greenhouse gases was by Joseph Fourier in 1824, who showed that our planet would basically be an ice ball if it wasn't for the gases in our atmosphere.


I posted this a few weeks ago.

Arrhenius did very little research in the fields of climatology and geophysics, and considered any work in these fields a hobby. His basic approach was to apply knowledge of basic scientific principles to make sense of existing observations, while hypothesizing a theory on the cause of the “Ice Age.” Later on, his geophysical work would serve as a catalyst for the work of others.

In 1895, Arrhenius presented a paper to the Stockholm Physical Society titled, “On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon the Temperature of the Ground.” This article described an energy budget model that considered the radiative effects of carbon dioxide (carbonic acid) and water vapor on the surface temperature of the Earth, and variations in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. In order to proceed with his experiments, Arrhenius relied heavily on the experiments and observations of other scientists, including Josef Stefan, Arvid Gustaf Högbom, Samuel Langley, Leon Teisserenc de Bort, Knut Angstrom, Alexander Buchan, Luigi De Marchi, Joseph Fourier, C.S.M. Pouillet, and John Tyndall.

Arrhenius argued that variations in trace constituents—namely carbon dioxide—of the atmosphere could greatly influence the heat budget of the Earth.


Link to article.

Link
1120. zawxdsk
On that Day 3 Moderate risk, here's the forecast sounding for Texarkana AR from the NAM - at 60 hours out (00z 28th - 7pm CDT Sunday)

Coming close to uncapped with moderate to high cape (but not too much) and good helicity. There will likely be some gravity waves bouncing around from Day 2's ongoing convection early. It's a great set up for some big storms...


Quoting 1052. MahFL:



I have told you a million times not to exaggerate !

1) I don't recall you ever telling me to not exaggerate. I've only discussed the severe threat a few times.
2) How am I exaggerating? The last several model runs have consistently been showing a significant threat for severe weather in the same area for two days in a row. Honestly, I feel that's pretty terrifying. Of course, things can change in a few days, that's why i said "If the current models verify it could be a significant severe weather event" instead of saying something like "This is 100% going to be a huge tornado outbreak" If I said that, then sure, go ahead and call me out for exaggerating, but I honestly feel I don't feel I'm exaggerating at all.
Quoting 1121. Ameister12:


1) I don't recall you ever telling me to not exaggerate. I've only discussed the severe threat a few times.
2) How am I exaggerating? The last several model runs have consistently been showing a significant threat for severe weather in the same area for two days in a row. Honestly, I feel that's pretty terrifying. Of course, things can change in a few days, that's why i said "If the current models verify it could be a significant severe weather event" instead of saying something like "This is 100% going to be a huge tornado outbreak" If I said that, then sure, go ahead and call me out for exaggerating, but I honestly feel I don't feel I'm exaggerating at all.


Not something to be taken seriously. He/she is just having a little joke. The clue's in the word 'million'.
1123. Patrap
Al Gore Is Not Giving Up
A rare, frank conversation with the former vice president and climate-change activist.


By DARREN SAMUELSOHN

April 24, 2014

Al Gore is richer and skinnier than ever, 14 years out of the White House, a tech titan with elder statesman clout, whose disdain for politics in the capital where he lived most of his life has only grown with each year he’s lived away from it. Sure, this new Gore has a great life, what with a net worth well over the $200 million mark following the sale of his Current TV network to Al Jazeera last year, that seat on the Apple board and his starring roles with two investment companies that tout their environmentally friendly business styles: London-based Generation Investment Management and Silicon Valley’s Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers. He lives well too, between his 20-room, $4 million home in Nashville’s tony Belle Meade neighborhood and a separate apartment in San Francisco’s St. Regis luxury hotel residences.


But even in his fabulously wealthy, I’m-not-a-Washingtonian-anymore phase, Gore is still a policy wonk, of course. He may be a trendy, 50-pound-lighter vegan these days, and wear the all-black uniform of the Silicon Valley gurus who have become his peers. But the former vice president still geeks out when talking about the “cost-down curve for photovoltaic electricity,” his solar-powered houseboat and the infuriating refusal of the news media and the Republican Party to acknowledge the climate change gorilla in the room.

And the new Al Gore is just as steamed as the old Al Gore about the lack of clear progress in combating global warming, a failure that clearly eats at him. When I ask Gore in a two-hour interview in his Nashville office—the longest he’s given since last summer—how he would describe his job, he says, “I want to catalyze the emergence of a solution to the climate crisis as quickly as possible. Period.”


Perhaps not surprisingly, he is much less eager to discuss the disappointments of why that is so during the presidency of a fellow Democrat who subscribes to Gore’s views on the urgency of the climate crisis – never mind his own failure to galvanize more action despite the recognition of a Nobel Prize and even an Oscar award for his climate proselytizing. And then there’s the awkward fact of his current low profile, which even Gore friends and allies tell me is very much by design.
If the old rap on Gore was that he was too boring, too stiff to succeed at the highest levels of politics—at one point, it was hard to find a mention of the former vice president’s name without the word “wooden” closely nearby—the new complaint, even from Gore’s ostensible allies, is that he’s too polarizing a figure to lead the movement against climate change, a lament I’ve heard in numerous recent interviews.
“I don’t think he’s taken seriously as the spokesman, certainly by no one in the middle,” a former House Democrat with battle scars from the last decade’s climate change debates told me. “He’s preaching to the choir. He’s a common scold.” Claire McCaskill, the Missouri Democratic senator, says any politician with a background like Gore’s is bound to be a problematic face of the climate fight. “I’d vote for a scientist,” she said in an interview. “He may be a statesman, but I think once a politician, always a politician in the eyes of many.”
The charge leaves him cold. “It’s not about me. And I’ve never tried to make it about me,” Gore, who turned 66 last month, insists. “I think that whoever puts his head up above the trenches and says ‘We’ve got to do this’ is going to attract the ire of people who don’t want to do it,” he says. “And there are plenty of them.”
“I think that’s a big statement about who he is,” says Carol Browner, the former head of the Environmental Protection Agency, who is close to Gore. “Lots of people in our business would care a lot more about being on the front page.”


much more:....
1124. Patrap
Did you hear dat?

One can almost here the new entry about to load.
Quoting 1115. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Day 3 Moderate risks are a rare thing.



As a follow-up, this is only the 13th time in history the SPC has issued a Day 3 Moderate risk. Of the other 12, every one of them remained at least Moderate risk up to the event, and 4/12 (1/3) of the 12 were further upped to High risks.
Quoting 1005. LAbonbon:



Okay, I checked all the radar stations in LA, MS, AL, SE TX, and the FL panhandle. None of them are showing the correct location. I randomly clicked on a few in New England and CA, and they don't bring up anything at all.

Anyone know where the blog to report things is located?

I went to that page and have clicked a few of the site links, but I guess I'm not seeing anything looking "off" to me.
Are you still having this issue?
Anyone notice the 06Z 4/25 384 hour deterministic GFS spun up a TC or STC for the
Central Bahamas?
1128. Patrap
Radar werking fine in Chrome this am...on my DELL Tower A.
Quoting georgevandenberghe:
Anyone notice the 384 hour deterministic GFS spun up a TC or STC for the
Central Bahamas?


You can't trust anything that pops up at the end of a GFS run.
We discussed this earlier this morning -how the GFS loves to do this at the end of it runs.

I'm not sure why it happens all the time.
1130. sar2401
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

As a follow-up, this is only the 13th time in history the SPC has issued a Day 3 Moderate risk. Of the other 12, every one of them remained at least Moderate risk up to the event, and 4/12 (1/3) of the 12 were further upped to High risks.

So out of the 13, how well did they verify? Did we actually severe storms and tornadoes in the areas outlined by the SPC? Since I posted this, the new blog will be in 3....2....1...
Granted it's NAM past 48 hours (which mean it's usually crappy by 3rd day), but this will be big concern if NAM keep up with it.

1132. Patrap
Jazz Fest Opening Day begin n 16 Minutes !!!!
Quoting 1084. WaterWitch11:

yahoo news posted that this severe outbreak is compared to one that happened in 1991 of course I tried to find it again & it seems to be missing. I don't think I like yahoo news too tabloidee. TWC has had my areas current temp at 69 degrees for 2 days.

Considering that there is no severe outbreak at this time, it's hard to compare it to any event.

At most, we can compare the synoptic pattern to previous days and see what days are most similar. From that, we can see if severe weather is favored, and perhaps get insights into the types of severe weather that may occur. These matches are referred to as analogs. It is possible that a severe weather event in 1991 has been considered an analog at one time or another to one of the days this weekend, at least according to the forecasted synoptic pattern from a computer model.

Analogs are one tool, of several, that forecasters can use to provide a forecast.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
expansive warm sector area could see storms.



just likely not too significant the further away from the MS area you go
1136. Dakster
Quoting 1086. washingtonian115:

I remember GFS did this last year.It kept showing a storm system every 300 hours out pushing the time frame back over and over again until finally May 30 we got under 300 hours.That's when Andrea came along.lol.So if it's showing a s storm May 9th I expect the storm to form June 9th.


I'll plan to put the shutters up on May 7th then.
1137. ricderr
I'll plan to put the shutters up on May 7th then.

dak you represent the problem....complacency.....i've had my shutters up for a month now...you can never over prepare :-)
Quoting washingtonian115:
I remember GFS did this last year.It kept showing a storm system every 300 hours out pushing the time frame back over and over again until finally May 30 we got under 300 hours.That's when Andrea came along.lol.So if it's showing a storm May 9th I expect the storm to form June 9th.


Since I fish down there in Mid May it always raises my interest when the GFS throws out plausible looking false alarms.

April 27th is historically a bad day for tornadoes. : 4/27/2011 (207 tornadoes)
Quoting 1116. Xyrus2000:



Svante Arrhenius first published research on anthropogenic climate change in 1896. The earliest work I'm aware of in regards to greenhouse gases was by Joseph Fourier in 1824, who showed that our planet would basically be an ice ball if it wasn't for the gases in our atmosphere.

Yes and to complete the list John Tyndall in 1859. Quoting Wikipedia: "He was the first to correctly measure the relative infrared absorptive powers of the gases nitrogen, oxygen, water vapour, carbon dioxide, ozone, methane, etc."