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Earth Day 2014 Wunderphoto Selections

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 11:50 AM GMT on April 22, 2014

Today is Earth Day, a day to celebrate the beauty of the atmosphere, oceans, and biosphere of the planet that sustains us. As is my tradition on Earth Day, I present my favorite wunderphotos uploaded to our web site over the past year. I want to thank everyone who has participated in making this the largest (1.7 million!) and best weather photo gallery on the Internet--your photos are truly an inspiration! Many of my choices were taken from our Worldview Gallery, updated weekly with the top wunderphotos of the week.


Figure 1. My favorite wunderphoto of the past year, "The Green Heaven", was taken on October 31, 2013 in Senja, northern Norway, by wunderphotographer Altred. It's the background image on my laptop.

Wunderground's new Billion-Dollar Weather Disasters of 2013 Infographic
Earth set a new record for billion-dollar weather disasters in 2013 with 41, as I detailed in a January blog post. For Earth Day this year, Weather Underground's superb graphic artist Jerimiah Brown has created a new Billion-Dollar Weather Disasters of 2013 Infographic that helps put last year's extraordinary weather events in perspective.


Figure 2. My favorite lightning of the past year, "Bahama Blast!", was taken on July 11, 2013 in Freeport, Bahama, by wunderphotographer AsylumRat.

Wunderground's Awesome Lightning Infographic
If you want to learn more about lightning, Jerimiah has also created an awesome new interactive lightning infographic.

I'll be part of a live Earth Day Google+ hangout at 1:15 pm EDT Tuesday with Huffington Post. The topic is, "Where Will The Next Natural Disaster Hit?"

Jeff Masters
Rare Snow Rollers in Central Ohio
Rare Snow Rollers in Central Ohio
Green Camp, Ohio
Roots Beach
Roots Beach
Jekyll Island 2014
Overhead Clouds at Sunset
Overhead Clouds at Sunset
November Rose
November Rose
I was surprised to see these crystals on the Rose. I guess I had a little hoar frost. Need to get out earlier.
Cold Clouds
Cold Clouds
Temperature 15° -- Coldest morning of the year so far.

Atmospheric Phenomena

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1st!
Happy Birthday Earth!
Good Morning and a Happy Earth day to you too Dr. Masters..
Happy Earth Day All..

(Don't forget Arbor Day this Friday..
Plant a Tree.. :)

Thank you Dr Masters

Beautiful Images
Thanks Dr. Masters!
And A happy Earth Day to everyone!
Thanks Dr Masters for the images. Happy Earth day to all.
El Nino’s Arrival Seen by All Models, Australian Bureau Says (3)

An El Nino will probably start as soon as July, according to the Australian government forecaster, strengthening predictions for the event that can affect weather patterns worldwide and roil commodity prices.

All the climate models surveyed indicated that an El Nino was likely this year, with six of seven models suggesting that thresholds for the event may be exceeded as early as July, the Bureau of Meteorology said in a statement today. A warming of the Pacific Ocean, which drives the changes by affecting the atmosphere above it, will probably continue in the coming months, the Melbourne-based bureau said.


Link
Happy Earth Day Everyone!
Very strong Kelvin wave now surfacing in Nino 1&2



Nino 1&2 may reach El-Nino levels by this time next week.
That "Bahama Blast" photo is beautiful. There must have been a lot of lightning going on for the photographer to feel confident enough to try catching it with what looks to be no more than 5 seconds or so open shutter. (I've seen a lot of lightning in a lot of places, but the most spectacular show I ever saw was over the Atlantic waters between Miami and Freeport, when one massive positive superbolt from a jumbo CB like the one in that photo forked the waters every two or three minutes for an hour or so. Amazing!)
SCIENCE!
Link
Happy Earth Day Everyone.
Quoting 11. Neapolitan:
That "Bahama Blast" photo is beautiful. There must have been a lot of lightning going on for the photographer to feel confident enough to try catching it with what looks to be no more than 5 seconds or so open shutter. (I've seen a lot of lightning in a lot of places, but the most spectacular show I ever saw was over the Atlantic waters between Miami and Freeport, when one massive positive superbolt like the one in that photo forked the waters every two or three minutes. Amazing!)


12. AsylumRat 3:57 PM EDT on July 13, 2013 +1



Thank you everyone! It certainly took MY breath away-to see it in person, and to realize that the shutter was open when it happened!
Quoting 11. Neapolitan:
That "Bahama Blast" photo is beautiful. There must have been a lot of lightning going on for the photographer to feel confident enough to try catching it with what looks to be no more than 5 seconds or so open shutter. (I've seen a lot of lightning in a lot of places, but the most spectacular show I ever saw was over the Atlantic waters between Miami and Freeport, when one massive positive superbolt from a jumbo CB like the one in that photo forked the waters every two or three minutes for an hour or so. Amazing!)
His picture rated 9.9 with 96 votes! That is impressive.
Thank You for the beautiful pictures Dr. That Norway picture with the Borealis lights is stunning.  Happy Earth Day to everyone.  I have to figure out how to upload some pics; I have taken "nature" shots around the coast of the Florida Big Bend during early morning wade fishing trips which are stunning and on my laptop screen as well.
Let’s Rename Earth Day


By Joe Romm on April 22, 2014 at 7:24 am

Link
Quoting 10. StormTrackerScott:

Very strong Kelvin wave now surfacing in Nino 1&2



Nino 1&2 may reach El-Nino levels by this time next week.



I like this animation better because it shows the basin all the way to Ecuador. Nino 1 2 should start to spike soon, but that tiny little cold pool at the surface is still hanging on at the coast.

so beautiful...
Quoting 8. ColoradoBob1:
El Nino’s Arrival Seen by All Models, Australian Bureau Says (3)

An El Nino will probably start as soon as July, according to the Australian government forecaster, strengthening predictions for the event that can affect weather patterns worldwide and roil commodity prices.

All the climate models surveyed indicated that an El Nino was likely this year, with six of seven models suggesting that thresholds for the event may be exceeded as early as July, the Bureau of Meteorology said in a statement today. A warming of the Pacific Ocean, which drives the changes by affecting the atmosphere above it, will probably continue in the coming months, the Melbourne-based bureau said.


Link
Now remember people, Hurricane Andrew occurred in a year where there was a strong El Nino! Don't let anyone tell you otherwise! Not even someone from South California!
Here is the Aussie update for today.  In all honesty, people on here have been splitting hairs recently  on the pending El Nino and the potential strength. This is a normal cyclical event and a welcome change after almost 24 months of Enso neutral conditions which was a very long period.  The Aussies below recap nicely what we might expect over the next several month in their neck of the woods.  The other impacts may be a shortened Atlantic hurricane season in the post peak period. For Conus, the effects will be with us in Winter 2014 then going into Spring 2015 and Noaa breaks down the US regional impacts on several of their web pages.................We have all been here before.

El Niño likely in 2014Issued on Tuesday 22 April 2014 | Product Code
The likelihood of El Niño remains high, with all climate models surveyed bythe Bureau now indicating El Niño is likely to occur in 2014. Six of the sevenmodels suggest El Niño thresholds may be exceeded as early as July.
The Pacific Ocean has been warming along the equator over recent weeks, with continued warming in the central Pacific likely in coming months. Another burst of westerly winds is presently occurring in the western Pacific, and is likely to cause further warming of the sub-surface. El Niño has an impact across much of the world, including below averagerainfall in the western Pacific and Indonesian regions, and increased rainfallin the central and eastern Pacific. For Australia, El Niño is usually associatedwith below average rainfall, with about two thirds of El Niño events since 1900resulting in major drought over large areas of Australia.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently in a neutral state. Model outlooks currently suggest the IOD is likely to remain neutral through late autumn and early winter, with two of the five models surveyed suggesting a positive IOD may develop by early spring. Positive IOD events often coincide with El Niño and are typically associated with large parts of southern and central Australia experiencing lower rainfall than usual.
Next update expected on 6 May 2014 | print
version
 

Off Singer Island, FL.
Quoting 20. Waltanater:

Now remember people, Hurricane Andrew occurred in a year where there was a strong El Nino! Don't let anyone tell you otherwise! Not even someone from South California!


Ha! That was a sunny, breezy day in Tampa. So odd, considering what was going on to the south.
Quoting 22. StormTrackerScott:
Off Singer Island, FL.
Looks like a postcard.
Look at that awesome D.C shield
Perfect time of year for us Floridians, nice and dry.



But it appears next week we could see some rain.

Quoting 20. Waltanater:
Now remember people, Hurricane Andrew occurred in a year where there was a strong El Nino! Don't let anyone tell you otherwise! Not even someone from South California!


Not true at all! 1992 was not a strong el-nino.Link
Thanks Doc...God bless our good Earth and those who care about her..:)
This would be a historical weather event if it pans out
Quoting hydrus:
This would be a historical weather event if it pans out

Is this a historical event after Monday and Tuesday's historical event? There seems to be lot of historical events forecast by the GFS.
Finally, here is a link to an article from February 2013 suggesting that we might have a very low Spring severe weather season this year in the US; starting to look like this may actually verify which is a good thing for the mid-west.  Not to say that we will not have a possible tornado outbreak over the next few weeks but the numbers might be way down this year because of the weather pattern this year.  Some of the highlights are posted here:

The best bet for getting tornadoes this March will probably be from cut-off lows undercutting the upper-level ridge in the western U.S., which would bring disturbances over the Southwest before ejecting into the Plains. This near-term event that will bring much needed precipitation to California is not expected to bring that much tornado activity east of the Rockies because the main upper-level trough to the north of it will interfere and disrupt the storms upper-level energy, which limits how well the disturbance will be able to develop once it pushes into the Plains. With the predominant pattern of a ridge in the West and trough in the East that is forecast to last through at least the first half of March, I expect the month as a whole to be quieter than normal. The GFS and ECMWF models suggest that we have a PNA signal beyond mid-month, which would help keep tornado activity low. However, the rise of the WPO signal towards positive levels mid-month may provide the opportunity for more disturbances to work into the Southwest in the middle to later parts of the month.

For April and May, we must fall back more to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and other longer range signals to determine how these months could end up.
These combined with the recent long-term pattern of warmer temperatures in the West and colder anomalies from the Plains to the East Coast reveals a pattern that is unfavorable for tornadic systems.

One intriguing caveat to the forecast that may not necessarily verify but is interesting to note is the somewhat favorable pattern these analogs have during the core of chase season, from the back half of May into the first week of June. The colder west/warmer east temperature gradient over the central U.S. along with wetter than normal conditions in most of the northern and central Plains hints that the heart of tornado season could be more active than normal. I would not hang my hat on this period becoming more active as the analogs may indicate, but it does provide some hope to chasers.



Quoting 32. sar2401:


Is this a historical event after Monday and Tuesday's historical event? There seems to be lot of historical events forecast by the GFS.
Good morning Sar. I realize the GFS is not always right, but it does have its victories.

So of course I have no photos up to even get a slight chance at making this short list.... lol.... great selections, especially the lightning one....
Quoting 33. weathermanwannabe:

Finally, here is a link to an article from February 2013 suggesting that we might have a very low Spring severe weather season this year in the US; starting to look like this may actually verify which is a good thing for the mid-west.  Not to say that we will not have a possible tornado outbreak over the next few weeks but the numbers might be way down this year because of the weather pattern this year.


As of today, the United States has never gone so far into the year without a tornado fatality (since 1950). The previous record was April 21 (2002). Let's hope that keeps up all year.
Quoting 11. Neapolitan:

That "Bahama Blast" photo is beautiful. There must have been a lot of lightning going on for the photographer to feel confident enough to try catching it with what looks to be no more than 5 seconds or so open shutter. (I've seen a lot of lightning in a lot of places, but the most spectacular show I ever saw was over the Atlantic waters between Miami and Freeport, when one massive positive superbolt from a jumbo CB like the one in that photo forked the waters every two or three minutes for an hour or so. Amazing!)
We don't get lightning storms as frequently over Nassau, but there are a few occasions when I've seen that kind of show. We had a storm a couple of junes ago where I could stand at an open door and just snap away... the lightning was extremely frequent and so bright that the resulting pics looked like daylight shots...
Quoting 36. Neapolitan:



As of today, the United States has never gone so far into the year without a tornado fatality (since 1950). The previous record was April 21 (2002). Let's hope that keeps up all year.
Amen..There are some indications that early May will have a significant severe weather event.
Quoting 16. weathermanwannabe:

Thank You for the beautiful pictures Dr. That Norway picture with the Borealis lights is stunning.  Happy Earth Day to everyone.  I have to figure out how to upload some pics; I have taken "nature" shots around the coast of the Florida Big Bend during early morning wade fishing trips which are stunning and on my laptop screen as well.

Please do share on WunderPhotos... the upload process is quite simple....

we could see are 1st high risk of the year



DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VALID 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...SIGNIFICANT MULTI-DAY SEVERE EVENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL U.S. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...

22/00Z ECMWF IS EXHIBITING REASONABLE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OVER
THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH THE GFS NOW TRENDING TOWARD ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
THIS FORECAST IS HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE ECMWF.

EARLIER CONCERNS REGARDING A POLAR FRONT UNDERCUTTING STRONG SWLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SRN PLAINS ARE LESSENING. WHILE UPPER BLOCK
OVER CNTRL CANADA WILL ULTIMATELY FORCE A DOMINANT SFC ANTICYCLONE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS...IT APPEARS THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
AIR MASS SHOULD STRUGGLE TO ADVANCE MUCH SOUTH OF I-70 OVER KS/MO
THIS WEEKEND.

STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO DIG SEWD INTO THE LOWER CO
RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY WITH UPPER DIFLUENCE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
PLAINS AS FAR SOUTH AS WEST TX AT 27/00Z. THIS EVOLUTION WILL ALLOW
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE TO ADVANCE POLEWARD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WHERE
PW VALUES SHOULD EASILY APPROACH 1.25 INCHES AS SFC DEW POINTS CLIMB
THROUGH THE MID-UPPER 60S ACROSS A BROAD WARM SECTOR. LATEST
THINKING IS MODERATE-EXTREME INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG ERN
PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM WCNTRL TX...NWD INTO SCNTRL KS
SATURDAY WHERE MUCAPE COULD APPROACH 4000 J/KG. IF THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT EVOLVES AS LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THEN POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES
CAN BE EXPECTED. CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE ALONG DRYLINE FROM SWRN
TX...NWD INTO WRN KS SATURDAY THEN REDEVELOP AGAIN SUNDAY FROM SERN
KS...SWD INTO CNTRL TX AS MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX EJECTS INTO THE SRN
PLAINS. SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE MS VALLEY BY EARLY
MONDAY. ORGANIZED SEVERE MAY CONTINUE INTO THE DAY7 PERIOD BUT
SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION DURING THE DAY5-6 TIME FRAME COULD
POTENTIALLY DISRUPT THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...THUS CONFIDENCE IS
NOT AS HIGH.
I'm off, but leave you with Nassau currently 77 degrees F, winds from the N @ 7 mph... partly cloudy skies... great day... lol

Have a wonderful Earth Day, everyone.
Interesting article on TWC home page about NWS Tornado warnings. Pros and cons to the current warning system.

Link
Quoting hydrus:
Good morning Sar. I realize the GFS is not always right, but it does have its victories.


Good morning, Hydrus. Do you think a low of 47 in Ontario and a low of 43 in central Alabama is a victory for the GFS? 43 in Minnesota? When we set our record low for May 2 in 2005 of 41, Minneapolis had a record low of 28 in 2005. It seems highly unlikely a historic outbreak of cold air will leave Minneapolis the same temperature as me. It looks like the GFS has gone a little funny in the head with those temperature forecasts.
These photos are magnificent and right to the point about our beautiful and fragile earth. We are surrounded in its beauty and have a duty toward its care. Wunderground readers and bloggers share in the love of what makes earth special, and the beauty and awesome nature of our weather attracts us all, young and old, cynical or not. Its good to be a part of this community. Happy Earth Day everyone!

The Change Within: The Obstacles We Face Are Not Just External

The climate crisis has such bad timing, confronting it not only requires a new economy but a new way of thinking.

by Naomi Klein


Link
thanks for the blog doc great pictures for earth day

I leave a video

Quoting 28. StormTrackerScott:


Not true at all! 1992 was not a strong el-nino.Link
The numbers may not show it, but they officially classify the 1991-1992 period as a strong El Nino event. Yes, the conditions were waning, but for some reason they still refer to it as such.
Quoting 41. Tazmanian:
we could see are 1st high risk of the year



DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VALID 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...SIGNIFICANT MULTI-DAY SEVERE EVENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL U.S. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...

22/00Z ECMWF IS EXHIBITING REASONABLE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OVER
THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH THE GFS NOW TRENDING TOWARD ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
THIS FORECAST IS HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE ECMWF.

EARLIER CONCERNS REGARDING A POLAR FRONT UNDERCUTTING STRONG SWLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SRN PLAINS ARE LESSENING. WHILE UPPER BLOCK
OVER CNTRL CANADA WILL ULTIMATELY FORCE A DOMINANT SFC ANTICYCLONE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS...IT APPEARS THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
AIR MASS SHOULD STRUGGLE TO ADVANCE MUCH SOUTH OF I-70 OVER KS/MO
THIS WEEKEND.

STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO DIG SEWD INTO THE LOWER CO
RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY WITH UPPER DIFLUENCE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
PLAINS AS FAR SOUTH AS WEST TX AT 27/00Z. THIS EVOLUTION WILL ALLOW
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE TO ADVANCE POLEWARD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WHERE
PW VALUES SHOULD EASILY APPROACH 1.25 INCHES AS SFC DEW POINTS CLIMB
THROUGH THE MID-UPPER 60S ACROSS A BROAD WARM SECTOR. LATEST
THINKING IS MODERATE-EXTREME INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG ERN
PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM WCNTRL TX...NWD INTO SCNTRL KS
SATURDAY WHERE MUCAPE COULD APPROACH 4000 J/KG. IF THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT EVOLVES AS LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THEN POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES
CAN BE EXPECTED. CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE ALONG DRYLINE FROM SWRN
TX...NWD INTO WRN KS SATURDAY THEN REDEVELOP AGAIN SUNDAY FROM SERN
KS...SWD INTO CNTRL TX AS MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX EJECTS INTO THE SRN
PLAINS. SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE MS VALLEY BY EARLY
MONDAY. ORGANIZED SEVERE MAY CONTINUE INTO THE DAY7 PERIOD BUT
SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION DURING THE DAY5-6 TIME FRAME COULD
POTENTIALLY DISRUPT THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...THUS CONFIDENCE IS
NOT AS HIGH.


we could see OUR 1st high risk of the year
Quoting 42. Patrap:
Happy Birthday, EARTH!
Thanks Dr. Masters. Wonderful Photos.

I also missed congrats to Kyle or Bluestorm5. Maybe Dr. Masters could mention him in his blog?
Quoting 46. sar2401:


Good morning, Hydrus. Do you think a low of 47 in Ontario and a low of 43 in central Alabama is a victory for the GFS? 43 in Minnesota? When we set our record low for May 2 in 2005 of 41, Minneapolis had a record low of 28 in 2005. It seems highly unlikely a historic outbreak of cold air will leave Minneapolis the same temperature as me. It looks like the GFS has gone a little funny in the head with those temperature forecasts.
I should have worded it differently. I am swamped, but try to keep up on the blog,. I was looking at the lows very far to the south, Central Florida reaching the low fifties in May could break record lows for the date. It really is a large and cool air mass. It will be interesting to see what happens. GFS also showed freezing temps for us here in Mid TN, which I hope does not happen. A freeze this late wreaks havoc on the farming here.
Quoting 49. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
thanks for the blog doc great pictures for earth day

I leave a video





This was awesome! Thank you. I feel like I just went to Earth church.
Thanks Jeff. Amazing pics...

Quoting 40. BahaHurican:

Please do share on WunderPhotos... the upload process is quite simple....



I am still trying to figure out where my "mail" is on the new format and how to post web links; also having problems posting images off the net (weather charts, the SAL split window link, etc).  A brief reply on these three points (from anyone on here who figured it out) would be most appreciated................................ :)
Quoting 58. weathermanwannabe:



I am still trying to figure out where my "mail" is on the new format and how to post web links; also having problems posting images off the net (weather charts, the SAL split window link, etc).  A brief reply on these three points (from anyone on here who figured it out) would be most appreciated................................ :)



Mail is on the little icon that looks like a person up at the top of the web page... Click on it and another sub menu will appear.
Quoting 49. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
thanks for the blog doc great pictures for earth day

I leave a video


Nice video, Keep - thanks for sharing. It's a good reminder of what's really important and worth saving.
Can anyone post actual photos similar to Dr. Master's instead of the boring maps, graphs and charts all the time? It's Earth Day for god's sake!
Here is the headline skinny from the WPC short-term forecast for today.  That wildfire short-term issue for us may be a bigger issue for Australia down the road later in the year with the dryness for them associated with El Nino conditions:

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
435 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Valid 12Z Tue Apr 22 2014 - 12Z Thu Apr 24 2014

...Heavy snow is in the forecast across the higher elevations of the Northwestern U.S...

...Severe weather is possible over the Southern/Central Plains on Wednesday...

...An enhanced wildfire danger will affect the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region through Thursday...



Current Pacific SST



Current Pacific SST Anomaly
Quoting 62. Waltanater:

Can anyone post actual photos similar to Dr. Master's instead of the boring maps, graphs and charts all the time? It's Earth Day for god's sake!
Rollem half the size you usually do before blogging.
Quoting 56. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Looks impressive.
Happy Earth Day!



EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
231 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

VALID 12Z FRI APR 25 2014 - 12Z TUE APR 29 2014

...OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE PREFERENCES...

THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCT SUITE WAS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A
COMPOSITE BLEND OF THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN ALONG WITH CONTINUITY DAYS 3-4/FRI-SAT IN A PERIOD
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL FORECAST SPREAD/UNCERTAINTY.
PREFER A MORE ENSEMBLE MEAN BASED FORECAST APPROACH DAYS 5-7 NEXT
SUN-TUE IN LUE OF EMBRACING ANY PARTICULAR DETERMINISTIC MODEL IN
A PERIOD WITH STEADILY GROWING FORECAST SPREAD/UNCERTAINTY. THIS
WPC SOLUTION OVERALL LEANS SLIGHTLY MORE IN THE DIRECTION OF
AMPLITUDE OVER TIME FOLLOWING ENSEMBLE MEAN TRENDS AND FAVORABLE
PACIFIC AND NORTH AMERICAN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SUPPORT.

AS SUCH...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION FROM
MODERATE PROGRESSION TOWARD A BLOCKIER/SLOWER MOVING REGIME BY THE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HINTS OF A REX BLOCK PSBLY
DEVELOPING OVER CNTRL NOAM AND A MEAN TROUGH LINGERING OVER ERN
CANADA AND NERN CONUS. WITHIN THIS EVOLUTION THE TWO GREATEST
UNCERTAINTIES APPEAR IN THE DAYS 5-7 SUN-TUE TIME FRAME...
IF/WHERE AN UPR LOW CLOSES OFF WITHIN THE WRN-CNTRL CONUS TROUGH
AND THE AMPLITUDE OF NERN CONUS TROUGHING/LATITUDE OF THE ASSOC
SFC FRONTAL BNDRY. IN BOTH CASES THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AND
IN SOME GUIDANCE VARIABILITY BETWEEN 12Z/00Z CYCLES.


...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

SYSTEM INITIALLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRI WILL SPREAD PCPN ACROSS
THE ERN THIRD OF THE NATION WITH BEST ORGANIZED ACTIVITY LIKELY
NEAR THE SFC LOW TRACKING NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER AND ALONG/AHEAD
THE TRAILING FRONT AND TO A LESSER EXTENT SECONDARY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. RNFL IS FCST TO TREND LIGHTER AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
EWD.. THOUGH SOME ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE TRAILING PART OF
THE FRONT AS IT STALLS OVER S-CNTRL PARTS OF THE CNTRL-ERN STATES.
DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW THE SFC/UPR SYSTEM DEVELOPS THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME WINTRY PCPN CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN BORDER.

EXPECT MSTR TO MOVE INTO THE NWRN STATES THU/FRI WITH AN
INCREASINGLY BROAD SHIELD OF PCPN SPREADING ACROSS THE WEST IN
ASSOC WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT CROSSING THE REGION. SOME LOCALLY
MDT-HVY PCPN IS PSBL OVER FAVORED NRN-CNTRL TERRAIN INCLUDING
ELEVATION SNOWS. AS HEIGHT FALLS REACH THE PLAINS AND SPAWNS
CYCLO/FRONTO GENESIS EXPECT INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER
RNFL OVER PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. ACTIVITY/THREAT
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE E-CENTRAL US EARLY NEXT WEEK IN A PERIOD
WITH IMPROVING RETURN MOISTURE FLOW INTO A WELL ORGANIZED WEATHER
SYSTEM.

SCHICHTEL
Quoting 52. Waltanater:

Happy Birthday, EARTH!


If we made a cake for the Earth, how large would is diameter have to be to hold the 4 billion+ candles? ;)
Quoting 62. Waltanater:

Can anyone post actual photos similar to Dr. Master's instead of the boring maps, graphs and charts all the time? It's Earth Day for god's sake!


Quoting 22. StormTrackerScott:

Off Singer Island, FL.



This is how Florida should be appropriately marketed, personally I think it would still bring in tourism, who wouldn't want to go to a place that sometimes looks like that?
just a strange wrinkle or non wrinkle in this years el nino cycle...the SOI is rising......it should be falling...

Quoting 67. hydrus:

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
231 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

VALID 12Z FRI APR 25 2014 - 12Z TUE APR 29 2014

...OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE PREFERENCES...

THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCT SUITE WAS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A
COMPOSITE BLEND OF THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN ALONG WITH CONTINUITY DAYS 3-4/FRI-SAT IN A PERIOD
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL FORECAST SPREAD/UNCERTAINTY.
PREFER A MORE ENSEMBLE MEAN BASED FORECAST APPROACH DAYS 5-7 NEXT
SUN-TUE IN LUE OF EMBRACING ANY PARTICULAR DETERMINISTIC MODEL IN
A PERIOD WITH STEADILY GROWING FORECAST SPREAD/UNCERTAINTY. THIS
WPC SOLUTION OVERALL LEANS SLIGHTLY MORE IN THE DIRECTION OF
AMPLITUDE OVER TIME FOLLOWING ENSEMBLE MEAN TRENDS AND FAVORABLE
PACIFIC AND NORTH AMERICAN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SUPPORT.

AS SUCH...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION FROM
MODERATE PROGRESSION TOWARD A BLOCKIER/SLOWER MOVING REGIME BY THE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HINTS OF A REX BLOCK PSBLY
DEVELOPING OVER CNTRL NOAM AND A MEAN TROUGH LINGERING OVER ERN
CANADA AND NERN CONUS. WITHIN THIS EVOLUTION THE TWO GREATEST
UNCERTAINTIES APPEAR IN THE DAYS 5-7 SUN-TUE TIME FRAME...
IF/WHERE AN UPR LOW CLOSES OFF WITHIN THE WRN-CNTRL CONUS TROUGH
AND THE AMPLITUDE OF NERN CONUS TROUGHING/LATITUDE OF THE ASSOC
SFC FRONTAL BNDRY. IN BOTH CASES THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AND
IN SOME GUIDANCE VARIABILITY BETWEEN 12Z/00Z CYCLES.


...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

SYSTEM INITIALLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRI WILL SPREAD PCPN ACROSS
THE ERN THIRD OF THE NATION WITH BEST ORGANIZED ACTIVITY LIKELY
NEAR THE SFC LOW TRACKING NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER AND ALONG/AHEAD
THE TRAILING FRONT AND TO A LESSER EXTENT SECONDARY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. RNFL IS FCST TO TREND LIGHTER AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
EWD.. THOUGH SOME ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE TRAILING PART OF
THE FRONT AS IT STALLS OVER S-CNTRL PARTS OF THE CNTRL-ERN STATES.
DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW THE SFC/UPR SYSTEM DEVELOPS THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME WINTRY PCPN CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN BORDER.

EXPECT MSTR TO MOVE INTO THE NWRN STATES THU/FRI WITH AN
INCREASINGLY BROAD SHIELD OF PCPN SPREADING ACROSS THE WEST IN
ASSOC WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT CROSSING THE REGION. SOME LOCALLY
MDT-HVY PCPN IS PSBL OVER FAVORED NRN-CNTRL TERRAIN INCLUDING
ELEVATION SNOWS. AS HEIGHT FALLS REACH THE PLAINS AND SPAWNS
CYCLO/FRONTO GENESIS EXPECT INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER
RNFL OVER PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. ACTIVITY/THREAT
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE E-CENTRAL US EARLY NEXT WEEK IN A PERIOD
WITH IMPROVING RETURN MOISTURE FLOW INTO A WELL ORGANIZED WEATHER
SYSTEM.

SCHICHTEL



Been Watching The pattern emerge over the past couple of days on the models , GFS and Euro are extremely similar and I am thinking that there is more than a slight chance this thing, could move from the Central Plains to the east Coast over 4-5 days and be a serious threat all the way through ,

Quoting 65. hydrus:

.Looks impressive.


quick shot
Quoting 71. ricderr:
just a strange wrinkle or non wrinkle in this years el nino cycle...the SOI is rising......it should be falling...


It's an average of the last 30 days. It should start dropping again soon, with the MJO making its presence felt in the WPac.
Quoting Chucktown:
Interesting article on TWC home page about NWS Tornado warnings. Pros and cons to the current warning system.

Link

Impact based tornado warnings, and delineating radar indicated tornadoes from those observed, will both be big advances in tornado warnings. Birmingham has one of the highest false alarm rates for tornadoes in the country, and this became particularly acute after the April, 2011 outbreak. We went through a period where almost any thunderstorm that showed even the slightest sign of rotation got a tornado warning. Activating the Skywarn amateur radio net went from being a couple of times a month during our severe weather season (February to mid-May) to a couple of times a week. There were so many warnings that the tornado sirens would just shut off when they were activated again. People down here basically stopped paying attention. About 90% of all warnings were false alarms in 2012.

Things have calmed down some now, but that's mostly because we really haven't anything like a severe storm outbreak in central and south Alabama since 2012. It appears the impact based warnings will only be done in the NWS Central Region. Even though every article that talks about impact based warnings mentions the Tuscaloosa tornadoes (while completely ignoring the even worse tornadoes further east and north), Birmingham is not included in this program. When I go to the NOAA Impact Based Warning Page, every single link is broken except for a YouTube video and the "Satisfaction Survey". We in "Dixie Alley" seem to have been forgotten in this program...or maybe the Southern Region didn't lobby for it. I don't know that answer. Additional fill-in radar sites would help, but I don't think that money's coming soon. The NWS already has a large, trained spotter network with Skywarn. Many of the amateur radio spotters are already hooked into a GIS network, so every time they transmit, we know exactly where they are. If the NWS would also use this network, they can know where amateur radio spotters are and request a report from any that are located near a suspicious cell before they issue a warning. We can provide ground truth if we are properly utilized. As it is, we contact spotters after a warning is issued. They will tell us if they see any evidence of a tornado, but the warning has already gone out. Our spotters also call net control with observations like rotating wall clouds before they are seen on radar, especially in our rural areas where radar coverage is poor. We relay the information to the NWS, where it seems to disappear into a dark hole. It's almost as if it's not seen on radar, it's not happening. Our communication with the NWS is almost completely one way. Before you ask, this has been discussed with Birmingham many times. Nothing ever changes.

While I understand the NWS not wanting to miss any tornado, there has to be some balance between warning on everything that could possibly be a tornado, even an EF0 that knocks down a few trees in the woods, and being able to warn the public when there's a really serious tornado on the ground.
Happy Earth Day Everyone,

So after Wednesday's small Event we are looking at the Weekend and first of next week with a "Big Severe Event"....

Maybe lots to chase then, we'll have to see how this all plays out....

Taco :o)
Quoting 53. Dakster:

Thanks Dr. Masters. Wonderful Photos.

I also missed congrats to Kyle or Bluestorm5. Maybe Dr. Masters could mention him in his blog?


Thanks for the comment :) It's really not that big of deal enough for Dr. Masters to mention it, lol. Big deal for my resume though :P
Quoting hydrus:
Rollem half the size you usually do before blogging.

LOL. Or save the visit with Jack D. until later in the day. :-)
Quoting 430. Jedkins01:



Congrats man, that's seriously impressive!

I got second place at the local forecast contest at my school this semester, but I don't know how I would do nationally, I think it might be a little too much pressure for me while trying to do school lol, maybe I'll give it a go next semester.


If you ever see this, it's actually not that bad as long as you take about 15 minutes of your time on this 4 days a week. Actually, you'll enjoy it more the deeper you get into this contest :) Think of it as short homework!
...
Quoting hydrus:
I should have worded it differently. I am swamped, but try to keep up on the blog,. I was looking at the lows very far to the south, Central Florida reaching the low fifties in May could break record lows for the date. It really is a large and cool air mass. It will be interesting to see what happens. GFS also showed freezing temps for us here in Mid TN, which I hope does not happen. A freeze this late wreaks havoc on the farming here.

I know, I'm just yanking your chain a bit. :-) I do sometimes wonder if any human in charge of such things looks at model output and says something like "Hey, wait a minute...". If this large scale intrusion of cold air occurs, it will be a big problem with agriculture all over the East. If the amount of rain forecast happens, it's going to lay havoc with all the newly planted crops as well. I also have the feeling that a cold, rainy storm system in May means we can kiss hurricane season goodbye...but we'll see.
Quoting 68. Jedkins01:



If we made a cake for the Earth, how large would is diameter have to be to hold the 4 billion candles? ;)


That is determined solely by the size of the candles.

If the diameter is 1cm and we assume each candle to occupy 1cm by 1cm. , then you will need something under 4,000,000,000cm^3=0.4 square kilometers

If we pack hexagonally into a cake in a horizontal plane, Joseph Louis Lagrange showed that the highest possible density of circles is:


In this arrangement:



That is, about 90.69% of the plane is occupied by circles.

Our total area = 4,000,000,000(pi(.5cm^2)) using the pi(r^2) definition for area of a circle.

This total area is about 90.69% of the total area of the cake we need.

We can solve this algebraically:
(.9069)*(Cake Area)=(.4km^2)
(Cake Area)=(.4km^2)/(.9069)
Cake Area = 0.44106296173778806924688499283273 km^2,
which is approximately .441 square kilometers or about 0.274 square miles
About my last comment, sorry I couldn't help myself :)
Quoting 54. hydrus:

I should have worded it differently. I am swamped, but try to keep up on the blog,. I was looking at the lows very far to the south, Central Florida reaching the low fifties in May could break record lows for the date. It really is a large and cool air mass. It will be interesting to see what happens. GFS also showed freezing temps for us here in Mid TN, which I hope does not happen. A freeze this late wreaks havoc on the farming here.


Well, Orlando has been in the 40s every day of April, and even into the upper 30s as late as the 20th. The latest it's ever been in the 40s there was May 15, and it's been in the 50s as late as June 13. So 50s, chilly though they might be, likely wouldn't set many records for Central Florida. (For the record, Tallahassee has dipped into the 40s as late as June 2, and as early as September 19.)
*Jaws theme music*

Quoting 70. Jedkins01:



This is how Florida should be appropriately marketed, personally I think it would still bring in tourism, who wouldn't want to go to a place that sometimes looks like that?


Well, except for that bright, jagged, random, 800,000 volt, 60,000C monster lighting up the picture... ;-)
Quoting 82. GeorgiaStormz:



That is determined solely by the size of the candles.

If the diameter is 1cm and we assume each candle to occupy 1cm by 1cm. , then you will need something under 4,000,000,000cm^3=0.4 square kilometers

If we pack hexagonally into a cake in a horizontal plane, Joseph Louis Lagrange showed that the highest possible density of circles is:


In this arrangement:



That is, about 90.69% of the plane is occupied by circles.

Our total area = 4,000,000,000(pi(.5cm^2)) using the pi(r^2) definition for area of a circle.

This total area is about 90.69% of the total area of the cake we need.

We can solve this algebraically:
(.9069)*(Cake Area)=(.4km^2)
(Cake Area)=(.4km^2)/(.9069)
Cake Area = 0.44106296173778806924688499283273 km^2,
which is approximately .441 square kilometers or about 0.274 square miles


I am impressed . Really impressed ....

Not a clue if you are right, but still impressed
Quoting 78. sar2401:


LOL. Or save the visit with Jack D. until later in the day. :-)
Quoting 77. Bluestorm5:



Thanks for the comment :) It's really not that big of deal enough for Dr. Masters to mention it, lol. Big deal for my resume though :P


Not true. That is a big accomplishment and shows that you are on your way to becoming a meteorologist and a darn good one too. This is one step in recognizing your abilities. (Having said that, don't let it go your head though - but you don't seem like the person that would do that)
Quoting 70. Jedkins01:



This is how Florida should be appropriately marketed, personally I think it would still bring in tourism, who wouldn't want to go to a place that sometimes looks like that?


oh yes...i can see the commercial now.....

come to florida and enjoy the fishing...YOU CAN'T FOOL THERE'S LIGHTNING

nothing like a florida beach... STAY AWAY WHEN THERE"S LIGHTNING

you will love florida's theme parks.... THEY SHUT DOWN WHEN THERE"S LIGHTNNING






Happy Earth Day Everyone!

Quoting 87. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yikes.






Of course I'll be in Virginia so I'll be missing out on this severe weather event.
stay away from candles :-)


Hurricane Katrina came through here on August 29, 2005. We were without power for five days and five hours. We never used candles, but had regular batteries for the radio, and rechargeable batteries that kept their charge for night lighting. Warnings on the news was NOT to use candles because of possible fires.

Elsewhere on our website, we talk about objects in your home that can be "hosts" for demons. Candles can also be a "host".

A former African witchdoctor who practiced witchcraft for over twenty years said that demons are attracted to the substance candles are made out of. Candles were a part of his witchcraft. It does not matter what color, shape, or smell they have. When lit, the smell of the candle also calls on another big time demon. Is it a wonder why the candle business is in the Billions of dollars a year! No wonder too that so many churches have candles all over the place.

Get rid of all your candles. You may just be getting rid of some of your problems. This also pertains to incense.

For those Bible researchers who read that "candles" were mentioned in the Bible, look in your Strong's concordance. The Original term is "lamp" "oil" or "oil lamp", NOT "candle". The menorah tradition goes back to 165 B.C. They did not use candles, but used oil.

After you get rid of the candles, command all the demons to leave you and your property, in the name of Jesus, JUST IN CASE.

What if the lights go out, you say? Use a flashlight!
Quoting 72. VR46L:



Been Watching The pattern emerge over the past couple of days on the models , GFS and Euro are extremely similar and I am thinking that there is more than a slight chance this thing, could move from the Central Plains to the east Coast over 4-5 days and be a serious threat all the way through ,


Yep...I,m not digging it. Especially since it has been very quiet. Sometimes nature makes up for the quiet period in a hurry.
Quoting ricderr:
stay away from candles :-)


Hurricane Katrina came through here on August 29, 2005. We were without power for five days and five hours. We never used candles, but had regular batteries for the radio, and rechargeable batteries that kept their charge for night lighting. Warnings on the news was NOT to use candles because of possible fires.

Elsewhere on our website, we talk about objects in your home that can be "hosts" for demons. Candles can also be a "host".

A former African witchdoctor who practiced witchcraft for over twenty years said that demons are attracted to the substance candles are made out of. Candles were a part of his witchcraft. It does not matter what color, shape, or smell they have. When lit, the smell of the candle also calls on another big time demon. Is it a wonder why the candle business is in the Billions of dollars a year! No wonder too that so many churches have candles all over the place.

Get rid of all your candles. You may just be getting rid of some of your problems. This also pertains to incense.

For those Bible researchers who read that "candles" were mentioned in the Bible, look in your Strong's concordance. The Original term is "lamp" "oil" or "oil lamp", NOT "candle". The menorah tradition goes back to 165 B.C. They did not use candles, but used oil.

After you get rid of the candles, command all the demons to leave you and your property, in the name of Jesus, JUST IN CASE.

What if the lights go out, you say? Use a flashlight!

Thanks for the warning. I just trashed all my candles. I knew my demon problem was coming from somewhere. :-)
Could be a bad day in Southern Plains on Sunday. CIPS of St. Louis University got 5 of 15 analogs with at least one EF2 or stronger tornado in >30% area.

Quoting Dakster:


Not true. That is a big accomplishment and shows that you are on your way to becoming a meteorologist and a darn good one too. This is one step in recognizing your abilities. (Having said that, don't let it go your head though - but you don't seem like the person that would do that)

I agree. I have sent a note to Dr. Masters about our little Kyle. :-) We'll see if anything becomes of it.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
About my last comment, sorry I couldn't help myself :)

Rats! I was going to make something up, but you did the actual calculations. :-)
Quoting 92. Bluestorm5:



Of course I'll be in Virginia so I'll be missing out on this severe weather event.


Where in??
100. VR46L
Quoting 94. hydrus:

Yep...I,m not digging it. Especially since it has been very quiet. Sometimes nature makes up for the quiet period in a hurry.


And History is against this being quiet

as per Image posted by Bluestorm .... beat me to it !
Quoting 94. hydrus:

Yep...I,m not digging it. Especially since it has been very quiet. Sometimes nature makes up for the quiet period in a hurry.


This one probably isn't it...lifts out into the plains very rapidly. Maybe the next one. 6 days to change, but it lifts rather than progressing.
Quoting 68. Jedkins01:


If we made a cake for the Earth, how large would is diameter have to be to hold the 4 billion+ candles? ;)
Now that we have easily solved that, the more important question is WHO, or WHAT, is going to blow them out? What would be the size storm to effectively blow out all candles?
Happy Earth Day to Everyone. - Thanks for the new Post Dr.Masters.
Quoting 89. Dakster:



Not true. That is a big accomplishment and shows that you are on your way to becoming a meteorologist and a darn good one too. This is one step in recognizing your abilities. (Having said that, don't let it go your head though - but you don't seem like the person that would do that)


I'll try to keep my head together :) It's just hard to not be happy with my abilities since I've gotten so much congratulations. Add this success in WxChallenge to getting the number of storms right in Max's contest last year, I'm feeling pretty good about my forecasting skills, but I know there's so much potential to grow too. My goal for next year is to try to finish in Top 3 for the whole year among freshmen/sophomores before moving up to tougher league.
Quoting 102. Waltanater:
Now that we have easily solved that, the more important question is WHO, or WHAT, is going to blow them out? What would be the size storm to effectively blow out all candles?


Well Waltanater,
We really don't want to light that many candles...
Only because that would cause GW and lord knows we don't need that :o)
just saying
Taco :o)
BTW if someone donates enough money for ingredients for the cake, I will bake it

You have till 5pm to send me up to 20billion dollars to cover ingredients, cooking over a quarter square mile, icing, candles, land clearing, and handling, labor, and other expenses.
I'll be part of a live Earth Day Google+ hangout at 1:15 pm EDT Tuesday with Huffington Post. The topic is, "Where Will The Next Natural Disaster Hit?"

Jeff Masters
Quoting 106. GeorgiaStormz:

BTW if someone donates enough money for ingredients for the cake, I will bake it

You have till 5pm to send me up to 20billion dollars to cover ingredients, cooking over a quarter square mile, icing, candles, land clearing, and handling, labor, and other expenses.



lol
Quoting 107. JeffMasters:

I'll be part of a live Earth Day Google hangout at 1:15 pm EDT Tuesday with Huffington Post. The topic is, "Where Will The Next Natural Disaster Hit?"

Jeff Masters



I think Yellowstone would be the next disaster



I take that back I think this volcano could be the next disaster

Link
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


This one probably isn't it...lifts out into the plains very rapidly. Maybe the next one. 6 days to change, but it lifts rather than progressing.

I don't have much of feel for this one. The models still have a lot of disagreement about the upper air features, and there still doesn't seem to much instability. Like you say, 6 days away, so we'll see what happens. My 80% chance of thunderstorms appears to be rapidly disappearing. With a temperature of 78 and a dewpoint of 64, it seems like conditions are pretty good for thunderstorms but all I have is some Cu floating around with no vertical development. Maybe later today, although most of the energy will be gone by then. We can use the time to dry out if this event next week does turn out to a rainmaker. I'm still sinking into my lawn when I walk over it.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
BTW if someone donates enough money for ingredients for the cake, I will bake it

You have till 5pm to send me up to 20billion dollars to cover ingredients, cooking over a quarter square mile, icing, candles, land clearing, and handling, labor, and other expenses.

Walmart called and said they'd donate a sheet cake. Now we just have to get the other 900 Walmart's to donate one, stick them all together and we'll have our cake. The candles might still be an issue though. :-)
Quoting 110. sar2401:


I don't have much of feel for this one. The models still have a lot of disagreement about the upper air features, and there still doesn't seem to much instability. Like you say, 6 days away, so we'll see what happens. My 80% chance of thunderstorms appears to be rapidly disappearing. With a temperature of 78 and a dewpoint of 64, it seems like conditions are pretty good for thunderstorms but all I have is some Cu floating around with no vertical development. Maybe later today, although most of the energy will be gone by then. We can use the time to dry out if this event next week does turn out to a rainmaker. I'm still sinking into my lawn when I walk over it.


Actually, Euro and GFS seem to be in decent agreement for now, but things can change between now and few days away. Honestly, I'm keeping my exceptions low because of disappointments this year so far.
Yikes. Apparently 5/24/11 is one of few analogs for this Sunday. That's the day EF5 went through El Reno area (no, not the infamous 2.6 miles wide one last year).
Quoting 113. Bluestorm5:

Yikes. Apparently 5/24/11 is one of few analogs for this Sunday. That's the day EF5 went through El Reno area (no, not the infamous 2.6 miles wide one last year).

And that's not the only impressive day either. Days such as May 3rd, 1999, April 14th, 2012, and March 12, 2006 are also showing up as analogs between Saturday and Sunday. And those are only some of the more recent impressive analogs too!

Look like a good weekend for a chasing road trip!
Quoting 82. GeorgiaStormz:


That is determined solely by the size of the candles.

If the diameter is 1cm and we assume each candle to occupy 1cm by 1cm. , then you will need something under 4,000,000,000cm^3=0.4 square kilometers

If we pack hexagonally into a cake in a horizontal plane, Joseph Louis Lagrange showed that the highest possible density of circles is:


In this arrangement:



That is, about 90.69% of the plane is occupied by circles.

Our total area = 4,000,000,000(pi(.5cm^2)) using the pi(r^2) definition for area of a circle.

This total area is about 90.69% of the total area of the cake we need.

We can solve this algebraically:
(.9069)*(Cake Area)=(.4km^2)
(Cake Area)=(.4km^2)/(.9069)
Cake Area = 0.44106296173778806924688499283273 km^2,
which is approximately .441 square kilometers or about 0.274 square miles
...and how long would it take to light all those candles? Assume it takes 1 second to light 1 candle. If we start now, on what date would we be celebrating? Mother nature would have to produce a storm right away to blow out all the candles at that very moment. Someone would need to be ready with a camera good enough to take that picture. Have that shutter open. Be sure to post it to WUNDERGROUND.
This what I mean about Birmingham NWS:

.. Birmingham NOAA Weather Radio is off the air...

The Birmingham NOAA Weather Radio transmitter... broadcasting on a
frequency of 162.550 mhz... is off the air.

We are working with technicians to get it back up and running as
soon as possible. However... it is possible that it will not be back
into service until on or about may 3rd. In the meantime... please
tune to local media... social media and commercial radio for the
latest severe weather information. Backup NOAA Weather Radio
transmitters are:

Tuscaloosa... broadcasting on a frequency of 162.400 mhz...
Oneonta... broadcasting on a frequency of 162.425 mhz... and
Anniston... broadcasting on a frequency of 162.475 mhz.

For detailed information on backup transmitters for your
County... please go to our website at www.Srh.NOAA.Gov/bmx

Keep in mind that not all backup transmitters will tone for your
specific County... so please stay weather aware during the outage.

Finally... certain weather radios will begin to beep constantly if a
weekly test does not occur at least every 10 days. The last weekly
test occurred on April 19th. This means that if the transmitter is
not operational by April 29-30... certain weather radios will beep
constantly until a weekly test can be conducted.

Thank you for your patience. We apologize for any inconvenience this
outage may cause
.

The transmitter went down Sunday about 4:00 pm. First it was going to be fixed by today...then it changed to tomorrow...now it might not be until next Saturday? No backup transmitter at all? No contingency plans for a major metropolitan area? Reprogram all your SAME codes for transmitter 50 miles away and hope your dinky little back of set antenna will pick it up? I can call one of several radio suppliers I use and have a new VHF transmitter delivered today if I'm willing to pay for same day delivery. What the heck is the problem?
Quoting Bluestorm5:


Actually, Euro and GFS seem to be in decent agreement for now, but things can change between now and few days away. Honestly, I'm keeping my exceptions low because of disappointments this year so far.

Yeah, me too. Today's forecast looks like another disappointment as well. This is still the best looking severe weather outbreak as modeled, but we've already had a few lesser events that didn't pan out. I'm not going to do the Paul Revere thing with the neighbors until this is a lot closer.
i believe in you!
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
About my last comment, sorry I couldn't help myself :)
No need to apologize. We know you're a Math wiz.
:)
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Yikes. Apparently 5/24/11 is one of few analogs for this Sunday. That's the day EF5 went through El Reno area (no, not the infamous 2.6 miles wide one last year).
A little more NE for the worst of it. Piedmont, OK
Quoting 117. sar2401:


Yeah, me too. Today's forecast looks like another disappointment as well. This is still the best looking severe weather outbreak as modeled, but we've already had a few lesser events that didn't pan out. I'm not going to do the Paul Revere thing with the neighbors until this is a lot closer.


Interesting 12z GFS just took it to a whole another level. This might be a real deal this time around.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. DUE TO
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND LIMITED SHEAR THE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS LOW THROUGH TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
for those folks here who enjoy topics SOLAR......this might be a good site to check out........................Link
Quoting 115. Waltanater:

...and how long would it take to light all those candles? Assume it takes 1 second to light 1 candle. If we start now, on what date would we be celebrating? Mother nature would have to produce a storm right away to blow out all the candles at that very moment. Someone would need to be ready with a camera good enough to take that picture. Have that shutter open. Be sure to post it to WUNDERGROUND.



126.755 years

Sunday, January 22, 2141. Late evening.

Better have a lot of people or some long long long burning candles.

Fortunately a little gasoline and a flamethrower can set a quarter mile ablaze in a hurry. Just what the Earth needs for Earth Day.
Quoting 121. Bluestorm5:



Interesting 12z GFS just took it to a whole another level. This might be a real deal this time around.


In what way?
Analogs are becoming insane for this weekend. We got 5/24/11, 4/26/91, 5/3/99, 5/4/03, etc as analogs for this weekend. Of course, there's few other analogs that are much weaker, but just by getting those dates as analogs will grab attention of many meteorologists. We'll see.
Quoting 109. Tazmanian:




I think Yellowstone would be the next disaster



I take that back I think this volcano could be the next disaster

Link


The 1960 Valdivia earthquake or Great Chilean Earthquake (Spanish: Terremoto de Valdivia/Gran terremoto de Chile) of Sunday, 22 May 1960 was the most powerful earthquake ever recorded, rating 9.5 on the moment magnitude scale. It occurred in the afternoon (19:11 GMT, 15:11 local time), and the resulting tsunami affected southern Chile, Hawaii, Japan, the Philippines, eastern New Zealand, southeast Australia, and the Aleutian Islands.
Quoting 125. GeorgiaStormz:



In what way?
I'm waiting for the run to finish, but severe weather meteorologists sound very impressed by it. I'm already seeing dewpoints of around 65-70 degrees going as far north as I-70 in Kansas.
Quoting 118. Gearsts:

i believe in you!


ESPI has risen rapidly.. Up to 0.85.
130. VR46L
Quoting 121. Bluestorm5:



Interesting 12z GFS just took it to a whole another level. This might be a real deal this time around.


This looks bad

Quoting 130. VR46L:



This looks bad




3z is 11 pm EDT Saturday so I might be able to track few of storms. Yeah, things are starting to look mean for this weekend.
Something to take into consideration this weekend is that the GFS has been consistent with painting SBCAPE of 3500-4500j/kg in the warm sector across Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas. When you have this extreme amount of instability, a ridiculous amount of wind shear isn't needed for long-lived and significant to violent tornadoes. There's plenty of time for model guidance to change, but at this point, it's looking pretty bad across KS/OK/TX on Saturday.
135. NCstu
The 132 GFS moved the location of highest CAPE to South TX. Looks like it may not come together on Sunday. But there is plenty of potential in South Kansas on Saturday.
Quoting 132. CaribBoy:


Isn't Saturday out of the 3 day "suggested" WU schedule when viewing model runs? the nerve of the SPC putting up a Day5/Day6 forecast..
West-southwest of Wichita, Kansas at 0z Sunday.



Quoting 136. Gearsts:



Lol obviously some places are drier than St Barts. But I still need rain :-)

That google hangout that Dr Masters is joining is on..
Quoting 134. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Something to take into consideration this weekend is that the GFS has been consistent with painting SBCAPE of 3500-4500j/kg in the warm sector across Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas. When you have this extreme amount of instability, a ridiculous amount of wind shear isn't needed for long-lived and significant to violent tornadoes. There's plenty of time for model guidance to change, but at this point, it's looking pretty bad across KS/OK/TX on Saturday.


Maybe the conditions associated with tornadoes are easier to forecast, but I take all 4 day forecasts with a large pinch of salt.
Quoting 139. CaribBoy:




Nothing for me here in Aguadilla.
Quoting Bluestorm5:


Interesting 12z GFS just took it to a whole another level. This might be a real deal this time around.

If the GFS bombs out on us again, I swear, I'm never looking at another model. Our 80% chance for thunderstorms is now 50%, and I don't think that's going to happen either. If we're lucky, we'll get a shower. This GFS certainly looks bad, and all the mets are impressed, but I'll still believe it when I see it.
Brushing Teeth With Sewer Water Next Step as Texas Faces Drought

Pastor Bob McCartney of First Baptist Church tries to love his neighbor as himself. He’s just not thrilled that Wichita Falls will soon have him drinking water that once swirled down his neighbor’s toilet.

The Texas city of more than 104,000, suffering the worst drought on record, is about to become the first place in the U.S. to treat sewage and pump it directly back to residents. People who live in Wichita Falls, northwest of Dallas on the Oklahoma border, say they’ll buy more bottled water and try not to think about what’s flowing through their pipes when they bathe, brush their teeth and make soup.

“The idea is a bit grotesque,” said McCartney, 48, who has led prayer vigils for rain. “I’m not crazy about it.”


Other U.S. localities are considering similar approaches as water becomes scarcer -- the result of drought, growing populations and greater consumption. The crisis is worldwide. In California, food prices are being driven higher and from Brazil to southeast Asia a historic lack of rainfall is hobbling power and crop production.
Brushing Teeth With Sewer Water Next Step as Texas Faces Drought

Pastor Bob McCartney of First Baptist Church tries to love his neighbor as himself. He’s just not thrilled that Wichita Falls will soon have him drinking water that once swirled down his neighbor’s toilet.

The Texas city of more than 104,000, suffering the worst drought on record, is about to become the first place in the U.S. to treat sewage and pump it directly back to residents. People who live in Wichita Falls, northwest of Dallas on the Oklahoma border, say they’ll buy more bottled water and try not to think about what’s flowing through their pipes when they bathe, brush their teeth and make soup.

“The idea is a bit grotesque,” said McCartney, 48, who has led prayer vigils for rain. “I’m not crazy about it.”


Other U.S. localities are considering similar approaches as water becomes scarcer -- the result of drought, growing populations and greater consumption. The crisis is worldwide. In California, food prices are being driven higher and from Brazil to southeast Asia a historic lack of rainfall is hobbling power and crop production.
Quoting 140. Skyepony:

That google hangout that Dr Masters is joining is on..




The man--as always--tells it like it is...
Quoting 144. ColoradoBob1:

Brushing Teeth With Sewer Water Next Step as Texas Faces Drought

Pastor Bob McCartney of First Baptist Church tries to love his neighbor as himself. He’s just not thrilled that Wichita Falls will soon have him drinking water that once swirled down his neighbor’s toilet.

The Texas city of more than 104,000, suffering the worst drought on record, is about to become the first place in the U.S. to treat sewage and pump it directly back to residents. People who live in Wichita Falls, northwest of Dallas on the Oklahoma border, say they’ll buy more bottled water and try not to think about what’s flowing through their pipes when they bathe, brush their teeth and make soup.

“The idea is a bit grotesque,” said McCartney, 48, who has led prayer vigils for rain. “I’m not crazy about it.”


Other U.S. localities are considering similar approaches as water becomes scarcer -- the result of drought, growing populations and greater consumption. The crisis is worldwide. In California, food prices are being driven higher and from Brazil to southeast Asia a historic lack of rainfall is hobbling power and crop production.


And it's only going to get worse. The 'Arab spring' revolutions were partly caused by rising food prices in 2010. The heat wave in Russia and Ukraine greatly reduced the wheat harvest, and there was also a bad harvest in Australia.

People farm where they do because rainfall in the past has been reliable enough to allow it. That's going to change big time, as global distribution patterns change. Syria has become desertified. When farmers there saw the indifference of the government to their plight, they became revolutionaries.

If a 10% rise in bus fares can spark mass rioting in Brazil, what's it going to be like when food prices double?
Quoting 82. GeorgiaStormz:



That is determined solely by the size of the candles.

If the diameter is 1cm and we assume each candle to occupy 1cm by 1cm. , then you will need something under 4,000,000,000cm^3=0.4 square kilometers

If we pack hexagonally into a cake in a horizontal plane, Joseph Louis Lagrange showed that the highest possible density of circles is:


In this arrangement:



That is, about 90.69% of the plane is occupied by circles.

Our total area = 4,000,000,000(pi(.5cm^2)) using the pi(r^2) definition for area of a circle.

This total area is about 90.69% of the total area of the cake we need.

We can solve this algebraically:
(.9069)*(Cake Area)=(.4km^2)
(Cake Area)=(.4km^2)/(.9069)
Cake Area = 0.44106296173778806924688499283273 km^2,
which is approximately .441 square kilometers or about 0.274 square miles


A couple of minor corrections:

(1) You forgot to carry the "4,000,000,000(pi(.5cm^2))" down to the next calculation (instead you used only 4,000,000,000 cm^2 = .4 km^2 in the next calculation). The area used should of course be that of the candles proper as opposed to the sum of the areas of circumscribed squares of each candle. This area is about 0.314 km^2 (instead of 0.4 km^2). Then after dividing by 0.9069 we get about 0.346 km^2 for the area of the cake (and a diameter of about 0.664 km).

(2) When converting from km^2 to miles^2, one needs to divide by the mile / km ratio (1.609344) twice, instead of only once.
Found this on Twitter... LOL.

Coffee Surges to Highest in 26 Months on Global Supply Outlook

Volcafe Ltd. today cut its outlook for the country’s output of arabica beans in the season starting this year by 18 percent to 28.4 million bags. The global coffee harvest, which includes the robusta variety, will fall short of demand by 11 million bags, according to the firm, a unit of commodity trader ED&F Man Holdings Ltd.

Arabica prices surged more than 90 percent this year after the worst drought in decades scorched Brazilian crops earlier this year. Now, excess rain threatens to slow the nation’s harvest and reduce crop quality, Somar Meteorologia said today. Volcafe’s reduction in the crop outlook means the firm is now estimating a global deficit that’s about the size of production in Colombia, the second-largest supplier of arabica beans, favored by Starbucks Corp.


“If that really proves to be true, and we see a deficit in 2014-15 of about 11 million bags, that would really be bullish.”
Quoting 117. sar2401:


Yeah, me too. Today's forecast looks like another disappointment as well. This is still the best looking severe weather outbreak as modeled, but we've already had a few lesser events that didn't pan out. I'm not going to do the Paul Revere thing with the neighbors until this is a lot closer.


Sorry to hear about you radio, Keep your eyes open.
Quoting 147. yonzabam:



And it's only going to get worse. The 'Arab spring' revolutions were partly caused by rising food prices in 2010. The heat wave in Russia and Ukraine greatly reduced the wheat harvest, and there was also a bad harvest in Australia.

People farm where they do because rainfall in the past has been reliable enough to allow it. That's going to change big time, as global distribution patterns change. Syria has become desertified. When farmers there saw the indifference of the government to their plight, they became revolutionaries.

If a 10% rise in bus fares can spark mass rioting in Brazil, what's it going to be like when food prices double?


Coffee Surges to Highest in 26 Months on Global Supply Outlook

Volcafe Ltd. today cut its outlook for the country’s output of arabica beans in the season starting this year by 18 percent to 28.4 million bags. The global coffee harvest, which includes the robusta variety, will fall short of demand by 11 million bags, according to the firm, a unit of commodity trader ED&F Man Holdings Ltd.

Arabica prices surged more than 90 percent this year after the worst drought in decades scorched Brazilian crops earlier this year. Now, excess rain threatens to slow the nation’s harvest and reduce crop quality, Somar Meteorologia said today. Volcafe’s reduction in the crop outlook means the firm is now estimating a global deficit that’s about the size of production in Colombia, the second-largest supplier of arabica beans, favored by Starbucks Corp.


“If that really proves to be true, and we see a deficit in 2014-15 of about 11 million bags, that would really be bullish.”
Quoting 147. yonzabam:



And it's only going to get worse. The 'Arab spring' revolutions were partly caused by rising food prices in 2010. The heat wave in Russia and Ukraine greatly reduced the wheat harvest, and there was also a bad harvest in Australia.

People farm where they do because rainfall in the past has been reliable enough to allow it. That's going to change big time, as global distribution patterns change. Syria has become desertified. When farmers there saw the indifference of the government to their plight, they became revolutionaries.

If a 10% rise in bus fares can spark mass rioting in Brazil, what's it going to be like when food prices double?


Climate linked drought adding to Syria’s misery Last updated on 22 April 2014


The conflict in Syria has devastated much of the country’s agricultural sector. But while the fighting has left large tracts of farmland abandoned, irrigation systems smashed and livestock neglected, other forces have also been at work. Syria – and much of the Eastern Mediterranean region – is in the grip of one of the longest periods of drought on record. - .................................... The present period of drought hitting Syria and the wider region – including large parts of Iraq – started in 2008: dry conditions persisted through 2009 and 2010. Despite heavy snowfalls over the recent winter, water supplies in many reservoirs are less than half their normal level. “Going back to the last 100 years I don’t think you can get a five-year span that’s been as dry “, Mohammad Rafi Hossain, an environmental economist at the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) told Reuters news agency. -

Link
yonzabam:

The first thing I ever followed on the web was B-15 , with my mothers dial-up connection and those stupid search engines. I had given her my Apple IIC in 1994 , and she when on the web a couple of years later with it. She was a genealogist , they were some of the first adopters . E-mail was real revolution to a genealogist. I used to give her stamps for Christmas, to contact her friends, by 1998 when I saw her next, her postal bill had fallin' to next to nothing.

But there was no rich web as we know it . Then 2 years later B-15 broke off , I heard about on the "news" . It was the size of Delaware.
I looked it up on my mother's dial-up and my old Apple.

That ice berg"s daughters still roam the Southern Ocean.

B-37 just moved into Southern Ocean off the Pine Island Glacier. It grounded for several weeks , then it took off from Antarctica.

I watch the Earth pretty closely .
Happy"God created the earth day"!
Quoting ColoradoBob1:
Brushing Teeth With Sewer Water Next Step as Texas Faces Drought

Pastor Bob McCartney of First Baptist Church tries to love his neighbor as himself. He’s just not thrilled that Wichita Falls will soon have him drinking water that once swirled down his neighbor’s toilet.

The Texas city of more than 104,000, suffering the worst drought on record, is about to become the first place in the U.S. to treat sewage and pump it directly back to residents. People who live in Wichita Falls, northwest of Dallas on the Oklahoma border, say they’ll buy more bottled water and try not to think about what’s flowing through their pipes when they bathe, brush their teeth and make soup.

“The idea is a bit grotesque,” said McCartney, 48, who has led prayer vigils for rain. “I’m not crazy about it.”


Other U.S. localities are considering similar approaches as water becomes scarcer -- the result of drought, growing populations and greater consumption. The crisis is worldwide. In California, food prices are being driven higher and from Brazil to southeast Asia a historic lack of rainfall is hobbling power and crop production.


From the article:

“I don’t trust politicians at any level,” said Deford. “I’m not going to believe them even if they tell me it is good.”

This is the problem. The tinfoil hat crowd has no problem drinking water from a completely unknown source from plastic bottles, but tertiary treated effluent, man, that stuff's dangerous. The example of Portland completely emptying 38 million gallons of perfectly good water from a reservoir because one person urinated in it shows the people in charge aren't much better than this goofy person that made the comment. I took a 17 day trip down the Colorado through the Grand Canyon. There were 20 people on the trip. Guess where we peed? The dilution rate is fantastic, just like that reservoir. I wish officials would just keep their mouths shut sometimes and do what's clearly scientifically valid.

This reminds me of a spring we had in Cleveland. People would come from all over to take home the miracle water. The spring dried up, and city engineers removed the piping and spigot for a road widening. All the tinfoil hat people said the city dried up the spring intentionally so they could widen the road. The city workers came out in the middle of the night and hooked the piping back up, but to the city water supply. They then announced they had found the spring in a different site, and the tinfoil hat people went back to filling their jugs with miracle water again. It wasn't until 30 years later that the city admitted it was just tap water, but the people that believed in miracle water said the city was lying, and they kept filing up those jugs. We can't make every rational decision for the future and have everyone happy. Just do it and shut up.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Found this on Twitter... LOL.


LOL. I'm sure the tornado tanks are getting fueled up and headed for the area now.
Is really hot,hot,hot in PR this afternoon.

NWS San Juan ‏@NWSSanJuan · 4m
At 1:24 pm...the temperature at Luis Muñoz Marin intl. Airport was 95 F. This tied the record set on the year 1983

Quoting 158. Tropicsweatherpr:

Is really hot,hot,hot in PR this afternoon.

NWS San Juan ‏@NWSSanJuan · 4m
At 1:24 pm...the temperature at Luis Muñoz Marin intl. Airport was 95 F. This tied the record set on the year 1983


Hi all, good evening from Germany while listening to our doc in this hang-out :-)
Interesting breakout of severe weather happening in Tunisia, combined with SAL dragged over the Mediterranean once again. There had been thunderstorms all around me in Germany during the last two days with downpours and even large hail due to low "Quendolin" - but of course not in my place near Frankfurt which is still bone dry :-( On the bright side it provided a lovely hiking day yesterday in a nearby hilly region with summerly warmth. Easter Monday is a holiday in Germany, and people were out full force.

From Estofex:
SYNOPSIS: A high over Scandinavia and a trough over Spain, which evolves into a closed low over the central Mediterranean, are the components of a blocking pattern that sets up during the forecast period. In the lower troposhere, there is weak flow over much of the European continent, with the notable exception of northeast Europe, where an outbreak of arctic air takes place. Across northern Africa, a strong southerly flow ahead of a low pressure system over Algeria brings warm air into Tunisia and the central Mediterranean Region. The air over most of central and western Europe becomes marginally unstable in response to insolation, and scattered thunderstorms should develop.




Air masses (saved image).


Current dust load (saved image).

The alphabets for naming systems in Germany both reached the letter Q right now. So low Quendolin got company of high Quinlan, lol.



Quoting 159. Gearsts:


More specifically, April 1983 - from JMA.

Holy cow, 12z ECMWF.

Basically what Euro is showing now for our possible severe weather event is a trough turning negative with 981 mb low getting ejected toward northeast. At 120 HR (Sunday morning), the low is located over Nebraska. Combine this low with solid wind profiles with 40-60 knots LLJ and decent jet streams being located in Western Oklahoma/Kansas and good amount of CAPE from dewpoints being in 60s and you got a pretty solid outbreak for Central Plains, especially Sunday. And guess what? It doesn't stop there as ECMWF got another low pressure developing over Central Plains behind the outbreak and that one get ejected toward northeast over Ohio Valley, which could lead to a possible Monday/Tuesday event in Dixie Alley. Obviously we're still long away from worrying about Dixie Alley and I could be misintercepting the model, but this weekend might become big deal as I already mentioned. However, keep in mind that this is still several days away so lot could change for better or worse. We'll see :)

Quoting 142. Gearsts:

Nothing for me here in Aguadilla.
It's no better here because all the rain stayed off shore and to the east and south east (Barbuda, Antigua and Guadeloupe)
Not a drop here... so far.

But the rain is supposed to come, right. Lol. There is a heavy rain advisory in effect until tomorrow.
Are these 12Z solutions trying to outdo each other or what? Five days is a good deal of time to patiently wait, but these are some of the most ominous signals I've seen from a possible event since the big ones of 2011.
Heatwave grips parts of China
BBC weather video, 22 April 2014 Last updated at 17:06
Chinese authorities have issued warnings for cities in Yunnan province as a heatwave sweeps across the south-western parts of the country. Tomasz Schafernaker explains.


More mixed news for our earth and us are coming in from the Far East. Here's the latest from "Deutsche Welle English":

Fears grow over safety of North Korean reactor
Deutsche Welle English, April 21, 2014
Shut-down of the reactor at Yongbyon indicates that Pyongyang is having trouble cooling the plutonium production plant and that a failure in the cooling system could trigger 'the release of radioactivity.'
Atomic energy experts are expressing concern over the problems that North Korea appears to be experiencing at its Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center, which has been reportedly shut down earlier this year when the supply of cooling water from a nearby river was halted.
Analysis of satellite images by the US-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University, released on the 38 North website, suggest that extensive rainfall and flooding in July 2013 dramatically altered the course of the Kuryong River away from the facility and may have filled collection cisterns and ponds with sand or river silt, as well as destroying pipes to deliver the cooling water to the reactor.
Images show that steam was released from the turbine building in February, suggesting that the turbines had been halted down ahead of the reactor shutdown, while snow had collected on the normally warm roof of the reactor building.
North Korean engineers were quickly called in to carry out excavations and the construction of a new dam, the institute confirmed, but the repairs appear to be insubstantial. ...
Whole article see link above.

Vietnam uses ecological engineering to save rice
Deutsche Welle English, April 21, 2014
Inside 30 years Vietnam has gone from importing rice to becoming the world’s second largest rice exporter. Over-use of pesticides is damaging the environment, but farmers in the Mekong Delta say they've found a solution. ...
Tornado Alley isn't the only area that needs to keep a close eye on this possible severe weather event. Dixie Alley could be under the gun by early next week; looks like a pretty mean setup for that general area between 144 and 168 hours (12z Euro).

Still several days out, and hopefully things will change for the better, but if models stay consistent, we could have a significant, multi day outbreak on our hands by this weekend, possibly continuing into early next week.
Quoting ColoradoBob1:


Climate linked drought adding to Syria’s misery Last updated on 22 April 2014


The conflict in Syria has devastated much of the country’s agricultural sector. But while the fighting has left large tracts of farmland abandoned, irrigation systems smashed and livestock neglected, other forces have also been at work. Syria – and much of the Eastern Mediterranean region – is in the grip of one of the longest periods of drought on record. - .................................... The present period of drought hitting Syria and the wider region – including large parts of Iraq – started in 2008: dry conditions persisted through 2009 and 2010. Despite heavy snowfalls over the recent winter, water supplies in many reservoirs are less than half their normal level. “Going back to the last 100 years I don’t think you can get a five-year span that’s been as dry “, Mohammad Rafi Hossain, an environmental economist at the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) told Reuters news agency. -

Link

I think we have to be really careful here when there's an attempt to link drought to climate change and political instability. The're been a pretty serious drought in Texas for a number of years, and in California for the past year, So far, at least, we're not in a civil war over it. While there's no doubt that drought increased the misery in Syria, the direct cause of the misery is a guy named Bashar Hafez al-Assad. He and his father have ruled Syria with a iron hand for 44 years. He and his father's forces routinely tortured, maimed, raped, and killed thousands every year. That's why he's still in power - he's more ruthless than the other guys. Bashar was responsible for policies the led directly to the misery of Syrian farmers, including promoting water intensive crops like cotton for export, and failing to maintain the reservoir and aqueduct system that has seen Syria through recurrent droughts over the past thousand of years or so. Bashar alos failed to provide aid to farmers that weren't part of his minority Alawite tribe as a means to control the people...or so he thought. Yes, the drought was bad (it actually ended in 2011) but, with prudent leadership and careful husbanding of available resources, Syrian farmers would have made it through this drought like they have countless droughts before this. 44 years of despotic rule is ultimately way more important than a drought in setting off the Syrian Civil War.
Quoting 165. 1900hurricane:

Are these 12Z solutions trying to outdo each other or what? Five days is a good deal of time to patiently wait, but these are some of the most ominous signals I've seen from a possible event since the big ones of 2011.


When 12z GFS came out, I thought it finally caught up to ECMWF but guess what? 12z ECMWF blew away 12z GFS once again and we might have new players for Dixie Alley now. Obviously this one won't be in April 25-28 2011 outbreak territory, but that outbreak did started in Central Plains marching across Southern USA in the next four days. Scary stuff to think about.
I was traveling on the road during the outbreak of 2011 from Wilmington to Charlotte..saw some great cloud images..if this is like 2011, some people are in a for a wild ride..
C&P

Syria and much of the Eastern Mediterranean region is in the grip of one of the longest periods of drought on record.

The World Food Programme (WFP) says the recent rainfall season in Syria, which usually lasts from October to April, produced less than half the long term average precipitation.

When the harvest of wheat the staple food is brought in next month it is likely to be 30% down on last year and less than half its pre-conflict level.

This is part of a wider pattern of drier than average conditions which has dominated across the eastern Mediterranean from southern Turkey to western Syria, Lebanon and Jordan, says the WFP.

With other agencies, it is trying to look after the food needs of more than four million people displaced by the fighting in Syria. It says the drought could mean that number increasing to more than six million. A poor harvest will also lead to yet more increases in food prices.

The present period of drought hitting Syria and the wider region including large parts of Iraq started in 2008: dry conditions persisted through 2009 and 2010.

Despite heavy snowfalls over the recent winter, water supplies in many reservoirs are less than half their normal level.

Going back to the last 100 years I don't think you can get a five-year span that has been as dry , Mohammad Rafi Hossain, an environmental economist at the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) told Reuters news agency.

Many analysts say the drought and a lack of action by the Syrian authorities to halt soaring food prices was one of the factors driving the initial 2011 uprising against the regime of Bashar al-Assad.

Quoting 167. Ameister12:

Tornado Alley isn't the only area that needs to keep a close eye on this possible severe weather event. Dixie Alley could be under the gun by early next week; looks like a pretty mean setup for that general area between 144 and 168 hours (12z Euro).

Still several days out, and hopefully things will change for the better, but if models stay consistent, we could have a significant, multi day outbreak on our hands by this weekend, possibly continuing into early next week.
I had a feeling this would happen. There is still a lot of cold air, but we had no return flow. Now we will have a return flow plus the very cold air....Now we watch dynamics and tilt. If both of those come together, there will be trouble brewing..
Quoting 129. Skyepony:


ESPI has risen rapidly.. Up to 0.85.


Yup, ESPI has shot up and there are some pretty good west winds moving all the way across the Pacific now. All this points to rapid transition toward El-Nino over the next few weeks. I'm sure not what some want to hear about on this blog. However droughts from Texas to California will likely end come later this year.



12z CMC..









Sea Ice Update April 20 2014 – Global Sea Ice 1.05 million sq. km Above Normal

https://twitter.com/PatriotPost/status/4585773215 83071234

And here is the data to prove it:

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/so uth/daily/data/

Really cannot have more ice than normal in a truly warming world. The world was warming 10-15 years ago, but the warming process has stopped.
Quoting 172. hydrus:

I had a feeling this would happen. There is still a lot of cold air, but we had no return flow. Now we will have a return flow plus the very cold air....Now we watch dynamics and tilt. If both of those come together, there will be trouble brewing..



All the models except the Euro show quite a punch of cool air being driven across FL late next week. Euro however keeps us hot with afternoon thunderstorms.
"Really cannot have more ice than normal in a truly warming world"

[citation required]

and of course, don't forget about land ice!
Quoting 175. DoctorDave1:
Sea Ice Update April 20 2014 – Global Sea Ice 1.05 million sq. km Above Normal

https://twitter.com/PatriotPost/status/4585773215 83071234

And here is the data to prove it:

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/so uth/daily/data/

Really cannot have more ice than normal in a truly warming world. The world was warming 10-15 years ago, but the warming process has stopped.


And yet sea levels have been rising. I wonder if that could be because more sea ice isn't the same as more total ice?
Quoting 176. StormTrackerScott:



All the models except the Euro show quite a punch of cool air being driven across FL late next week. Euro however keeps us hot with afternoon thunderstorms.
I also have a feeling that folks down there will have an early start to rainy season, but it will be the backward pattern. Which by the way has been happening more often the past 10 years or so. During the 70,s and 80,s it was almost always from east to west , and on or near the west coast at 5.P.M....Things have changed a bit.
Quoting 175. DoctorDave1:

Sea Ice Update April 20 2014 %u2013 Global Sea Ice 1.05 million sq. km Above Normal

https://twitter.com/PatriotPost/status/4585773215 83071234

And here is the data to prove it:

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/so uth/daily/data/

Really cannot have more ice than normal in a truly warming world. The world was warming 10-15 years ago, but the warming process has stopped.


Arctic Ocean ice is currently well below the average for this time of year:



And the warming has not stopped, no matter how often the lie is repeated. 2010 was the warmest year on record, and 2005 the second warmest. Global average decadal temperature anomaly, base period 1951-80. Source NASA GISS:

1981-90 0.20C
1991-00 0.32C
2001-10 0.55C

The figure for 2011-13 is 0.58C.

Link
The ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI) for the last 30 days is 0.85


Quoting 159. Gearsts:


The west coast of Florida was pounded during that event..I,ll never forget it.
Lifted Index (C) / MSLP (mb)

GFS - Valid: Sun 04/27/2014 08:00 PM EDT (00Z)

Model Run: Tue 04/22/2014 08:00 AM EDT (12Z)

Lifted Index (C) / MSLP (mb)

GFS - Valid: Mon 04/28/2014 08:00 PM EDT (00Z)

Model Run: Tue 04/22/2014 08:00 AM EDT (12Z)
Quoting 182. hydrus:

The west coast of Florida was pounded during that event..I,ll never forget it.


It looks as if this El-Nino is going to get strong fast now that this Kelvin Wave is surfacing. It seems as if this wave has now made it to the coast of South America. It will be very interesting to see just how strong this El-Nino gets.
I hate the fact that this upcoming event is taking place on the anniversary of the April 25-28, 2011 tornado outbreak. I was hoping that it would be a time to look back at that outbreak, not worry about another potential outbreak.
Portlight Featured wunderblog
Portlight Conference, New Jersey
By: Portlight , 8:29 AM CDT on April 08, 2014




Attention all Amazon Shoppers!

Portlight is now setup on AmazonSmile. Amazon will donate 0.5% of your purchase to Portlight Strategies if you shop through AmazonSmile.

Your shopping will support Portlight Strategies
Methinks we have a chance at seeing our first high risk of 2014 within the next week.
Quoting 182. hydrus:
The west coast of Florida was pounded during that event..I,ll never forget it.


What impresses me about the 1982-83 event is how long those warm anomalies persisted along the South American coast(Nino 1+2) - they lasted well into fall of 1983.
Quoting 175. DoctorDave1:

Sea Ice Update April 20 2014 – Global Sea Ice 1.05 million sq. km Above Normal

https://twitter.com/PatriotPost/status/4585773215 83071234

And here is the data to prove it:

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/so uth/daily/data/

Really cannot have more ice than normal in a truly warming world. The world was warming 10-15 years ago, but the warming process has stopped.


Reality is neither links works.

Sowwy, back to med/climate school fer yous Dave.
Quoting 175. DoctorDave1:

Sea Ice Update April 20 2014 – Global Sea Ice 1.05 million sq. km Above Normal

https://twitter.com/PatriotPost/status/4585773215 83071234

And here is the data to prove it:

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/so uth/daily/data/

Really cannot have more ice than normal in a truly warming world. The world was warming 10-15 years ago, but the warming process has stopped.

You're wrong on all counts. The warming continues. Arctic sea ice, Antarctic land ice, and the Greenland ice sheet are on downward trajectories.

Antarctic sea ice growth is due to other factors -stratospheric ozone, wind, and melt from the land ice.
nam-hires_namer_060_sim_reflectivity
for fri 00az

Quoting 189. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Methinks we have a chance at seeing our first high risk of 2014 within the next week.


It looks at that way. A perfect set up for strong tornadoes especially across OK and SE Kansas.
Nice, stable weather pattern coming up next week, with perfectly latitudinal zonal flow holding sway:



Not. Record highs in the Desert Southwest, and record lows on the Texas Gulf Coast? That's quite a setup, no?
197. yoboi
Quoting 175. DoctorDave1:
Sea Ice Update April 20 2014 – Global Sea Ice 1.05 million sq. km Above Normal

https://twitter.com/PatriotPost/status/4585773215 83071234

And here is the data to prove it:

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/so uth/daily/data/

Really cannot have more ice than normal in a truly warming world. The world was warming 10-15 years ago, but the warming process has stopped.


Hey Doc they just don't get it.....I am saying the same thing on roods blog......
198. VR46L
Quoting 197. yoboi:



Hey Doc they just don't get it.....I am saying the same thing on roods blog......


Hiya ,

You still bother going over there ...

:)
Quoting 197. yoboi:


Hey Doc they just don't get it.....I am saying the same thing on roods blog......


So we're just going to ignore the trendlines of glaciers and ice sheets, and judge everything on sea ice area?
Quoting 189. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Methinks we have a chance at seeing our first high risk of 2014 within the next week.

I'd actually bet on it at this point. There's also a good chance that we could see the elusive Day 3 Moderate Risk, especially with how large the 30% areas already are with the Day 5 and 6 Outlooks.
Quoting 197. yoboi:



Hey Doc they just don't get it.....I am saying the same thing on roods blog......
yobi it don't matter if the ice was all the way down to 30 degrees north its all first ice ice slop ice as my grandfather would call it useless nothing but slush disappear faster than 2nd year 3 rd year 4 year or 5th year ice

and in order to have proof of any warming ending all ice would have to remain for 3 to 5 years without any melt at all and have ice forming on mountain tops as well with no melt at all

for 5 years

and guess what there is next to nothing as far as the age of ice over 3 years old as a matter of fact 70 percent or more is first year ice slop ice that melts real fast in the short arctic summer
Quoting 195. Neapolitan:

Nice, stable weather pattern coming up next week, with perfectly latitudinal zonal flow holding sway:



Not. Record highs in the Desert Southwest, and record lows on the Texas Gulf Coast? That's quite a setup, no?
Lol...I especially like the really dark blue color right on the gulf coast...just like every spring..:)
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


It looks as if this El-Nino is going to get strong fast now that this Kelvin Wave is surfacing. It seems as if this wave has now made it to the coast of South America. It will be very interesting to see just how strong this El-Nino gets.


Doubt it, most models show late this year bubba. It will be interesting though to see if/when we get an El Nino what it ends up being. Most likely weak/moderate.
204. VR46L
Quoting 195. Neapolitan:

Nice, stable weather pattern coming up next week, with perfectly latitudinal zonal flow holding sway:



Not. Record highs in the Desert Southwest, and record lows on the Texas Gulf Coast? That's quite a setup, no?


Ummm Next week is expected to be a nasty week with severe weather from the Plains to the Atlantic over days 5-9 ...

Quoting 197. yoboi:



Hey Doc they just don't get it.....I am saying the same thing on roods blog......


what's to get? global sea ice is higher than average for some short span of time that includes the present? so what? what do you think it means? do you think the overall trend of decreasing global sea ice has been reversed?
Quoting Neapolitan:
Nice, stable weather pattern coming up next week, with perfectly latitudinal zonal flow holding sway:



Not. Record highs in the Desert Southwest, and record lows on the Texas Gulf Coast? That's quite a setup, no?


Nothing is normal. Normal is the average of cray cray and dormant. :)
Just love the clouds here in Middle TN! This was yesterday morning...
209. VR46L
Quoting 187. Ameister12:

I hate the fact that this upcoming event is taking place on the anniversary of the April 25-28, 2011 tornado outbreak. I was hoping that it would be a time to look back at that outbreak, not worry about another potential outbreak.


This is being modelled as a possible horrendous outbreak , only thing going for it is ,I have not seen low Cap projected in the soundings and Cape is still not off the wall , Still If I lived in any area that is possibly affected I would be checking my Generator and supplies as it could be a wild ride
Quoting 201. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

yobi it don't matter if the ice was all the way down to 30 degrees north its all first ice ice slop ice as my grandfather would call it useless nothing but slush disappear faster than 2nd year 3 rd year 4 year or 5th year ice

and in order to have proof of any warming ending all ice would have to remain for 3 to 5 years without any melt at all and have ice forming on mountain tops as well with no melt at all

for 5 years

and guess what there is next to nothing as far as the age of ice over 3 years old as a matter of fact 70 percent or more is first year ice slop ice that melts real fast in the short arctic summer


Yep... Ice has to stick around to count.
Quoting 203. StormWx:



Doubt it, most models show late this year bubba. It will be interesting though to see if/when we get an El Nino what it ends up being. Most likely weak/moderate.


My opinion is this is going to be strong and I have made post stating why I believe so. Moderate maybe but definitely not weak.
Quoting 203. StormWx:



Doubt it, most models show late this year bubba. It will be interesting though to see if/when we get an El Nino what it ends up being. Most likely weak/moderate.


September
Quoting 184. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Lifted Index (C) / MSLP (mb)

GFS - Valid: Mon 04/28/2014 08:00 PM EDT (00Z)

Model Run: Tue 04/22/2014 08:00 AM EDT (12Z)

Is there a way you can remove the red.?
Quoting 195. Neapolitan:

Nice, stable weather pattern coming up next week, with perfectly latitudinal zonal flow holding sway:



Not. Record highs in the Desert Southwest, and record lows on the Texas Gulf Coast? That's quite a setup, no?
This is one reason I posted about some record cold in the far south..It is a big mass of cold.
Quoting Bluestorm5:


When 12z GFS came out, I thought it finally caught up to ECMWF but guess what? 12z ECMWF blew away 12z GFS once again and we might have new players for Dixie Alley now. Obviously this one won't be in April 25-28 2011 outbreak territory, but that outbreak did started in Central Plains marching across Southern USA in the next four days. Scary stuff to think about.

Well, something has to change in terms of instability in the next five or so days. It's 79 with a dewpoint of 63, 59% RH...and nothing's happening. There are a few thunderstorms north of me in Georgia, but there's zero convection here in SE Alabama...or anywhere in Alabama, as far as that goes. The theoretical conditions are good, and there are a few popcorn type cells wandering around, but this kind of weather usually at least gives scattered thunderstorms, and it's not happening again. Maybe the models have the weekend into Tuesday outbreak pegged...maybe not. I just know the normal instability parameters are here, and have been for the last couple of events, and all we've gotten is moderate to heavy stratiform rain. I'll buy into this one if the GFS and Euro are both hot to trot by Friday, but not right now.
Date | 2014-04-26 17:00 Local ⇄ UTC



area of dense cold is shrinking faster now as the northern hemisphere spring advances
So, someone used data from a server in Colorado, posted sea ice graphs anonymously on WordPress, it got picked up and posted on Climate Depot, which in turn got reported via a Patriot Post tweet, and then posted on Dr. Masters' blog as 'proof' that warming can't be occurring?

Yowza, that's quite convoluted. And at no point was any of it an actual article...

LOL - Apparently the peer review process just isn't fashionable with some folks.
Quoting VR46L:


This is being modelled as a possible horrendous outbreak , only thing going for it is ,I have not seen low Cap projected in the soundings and Cape is still not off the wall , Still If I lived in any area that is possibly affected I would be checking my Generator and supplies as it could be a wild ride

It looked like there was a cap in place in the model soundings for Sunday, but maybe I'm wrong. The SPC is seeing MU CAPE values of up to 4000 j/kg, so it looks like that's more than enough for trouble if the return flow is strong and there's no cap. The models seem to be in a pattern of over predicting storm strength this year. It will be interesting to see if they nail this one.
Quoting 200. 1900hurricane:


I'd actually bet on it at this point. There's also a good chance that we could see the elusive Day 3 Moderate Risk, especially with how large the 30% areas already are with the Day 5 and 6 Outlooks.

The setup on the 12z ECMWF is almost too good to be true given this year's performance to date, but as we saw last year, an initially quiet year doesn't mean it will always stay that way. The Euro has been leading the way for the other models regarding this weekend event for the past few days. If the GFS trends towards the 12z ECMWF, I agree--a day 3 moderate risk is very much possible (followed by the day 1 [day 2?] high risk).
Quoting 214. hydrus:

This is one reason I posted about some record cold in the far south..It is a big mass of cold.


I hope the Euro pans out as I like the heat.
.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:

It has the word "GLOBAL" twice, along with a pretty picture of the Western Hemisphere...and the average person is going to know the stamp has something to do with Earth Day and SST's? Maybe it's me, but it seems like a little more explanatory effort could have gone into this stamp.
Accumulated rainfall forecast for Germany until Friday. Guess where I live: in the middle of the pic with the little yellow "no rain" spot, lol.



Nevertheless, as I've already said, yesterday's outdoor walk in Rhenish Hesse was great. Here two pics, and good night with this!





225. VR46L
Quoting 219. sar2401:


It looked like there was a cap in place in the model soundings for Sunday, but maybe I'm wrong. The SPC is seeing MU CAPE values of up to 4000 j/kg, so it looks like that's more than enough for trouble if the return flow is strong and there's no cap. The models seem to be in a pattern of over predicting storm strength this year. It will be interesting to see if they nail this one.


Yep the Cap seems to be projected to be in place at the moment but its still a long way out , its just kind of concerning when the GFS and Euro are both on the same page with this one this far out . but the last far out forecast of severe by the SPC was reduced from Moderate to Slight closer to time
Quoting 178. TimSoCal:



And yet sea levels have been rising. I wonder if that could be because more sea ice isn't the same as more total ice?


As I stated, there was warming. When something becomes warmer, it expands. Thus, the total volume of sea water would occupy more space. It would rise.

Fire Weather Watch

Statement as of 3:48 PM EDT on April 22, 2014



...Fire Weather Watch in effect from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for high winds and low relative humidity for the entire tri-state region...

The National Weather Service in New York has issued a Fire Weather Watch for high winds and low relative humidity...which is in effect from Thursday morning through Thursday evening.

* Affected area...the entire tri-state region.

* Winds...northwest 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* Relative humidity...as low as 17 percent.

* Timing...late Thursday morning through Thursday evening.

* Impacts...rapid fire spread possible if ignition occurs.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible red flag warnings.
Quoting 215. sar2401:


Well, something has to change in terms of instability in the next five or so days. It's 79 with a dewpoint of 63, 59% RH...and nothing's happening. There are a few thunderstorms north of me in Georgia, but there's zero convection here in SE Alabama...or anywhere in Alabama, as far as that goes. The theoretical conditions are good, and there are a few popcorn type cells wandering around, but this kind of weather usually at least gives scattered thunderstorms, and it's not happening again. Maybe the models have the weekend into Tuesday outbreak pegged...maybe not. I just know the normal instability parameters are here, and have been for the last couple of events, and all we've gotten is moderate to heavy stratiform rain. I'll buy into this one if the GFS and Euro are both hot to trot by Friday, but not right now.


I was talking about Central Plains (Kansas, Oklahama) for this weekend. It's way too far out to be specific about Dixie Alley on Monday/Tuesday, but there's potential based on where the secondary low is on 12z ECMWF.
Quoting 224. barbamz:





Lovely photos, barbamz. Anyone know what tree/shrub this is with the white blossoms?
Another gorgeous day. 54/82. Light west wind. Dewpoint in lower 50s, humidity at 37%. An outside lunch day. Ahhhhhh!
Quoting 230. LAbonbon:



Lovely photos, barbamz. Anyone know what tree/shrub this is with the white blossoms?
George Vandenburgh would probably know..
Quoting 225. VR46L:



Yep the Cap seems to be projected to be in place at the moment but its still a long way out , its just kind of concerning when the GFS and Euro are both on the same page with this one this far out . but the last far out forecast of severe by the SPC was reduced from Moderate to Slight closer to time
It should be a large system, it will have a better chance of eroding it...The Cap ..:)
Quoting 230. LAbonbon:



Lovely photos, barbamz. Anyone know what tree/shrub this is with the white blossoms?


I have one and was told it is a Mock Orange ..
Quoting hydrus:
Good morning Sar. I realize the GFS is not always right, but it does have its victories.



Tallahassee was 34 on May 4, 1971 and 36 on May 5th. So it happened before. It would literally be cool if Tallahasse had their first May freeze on record, wouldn't it?
Quoting 200. 1900hurricane:


I'd actually bet on it at this point. There's also a good chance that we could see the elusive Day 3 Moderate Risk, especially with how large the 30% areas already are with the Day 5 and 6 Outlooks.


I don't think they'll issue moderate risk for Saturday's storm from Day 3, but Sunday's storm? It's possible, although I'm not sure they'll pull the trigger based on performance this year uniess GFS/EMWRF (GFS especially) juice up some mure.


NOAA released its global March 2014 summary today (April 22nd) which stated that it was the 4th warmest March on record over global land and ocean surfaces since 1880. The global average temperature for the month was 12.3°C (54.1°F) which was 0.71°C (1.28°F) above the 20th century average.

March 2014 4th Warmest Globally
By: Christopher C. Burt , 1:59 PM CDT on April 22, 2014
Today on my way home from work a popular radio show heard over a very large area made comments about it being "Earth Day" and that no one in the country cares.

Then they brought up the point about the Ozone Layer. They said "do you remember the hole in the Ozone Layer?" "What ever happend to that issue?"

They even went as far as to make a joke about how there's now a shortage of Hippies with dreadlocks due to the lack of concern about Earth day.

It was pretty bad, but it did make me think about how many people feel about our climate.
Quoting 234. whitewabit:



I have one and was told it is a Mock Orange ..


Thanks! It sure looks pretty. And thanks, hydrus, for the tip.
Quoting 230. LAbonbon:



Lovely photos, barbamz. Anyone know what tree/shrub this is with the white blossoms?


Probably Prunus Spinosa, LAbonbon.
Prunus spinosa (blackthorn, bair or sloe) is a species of Prunus native to Europe, western Asia, and locally in northwest Africa. It is also locally naturalised in New Zealand and eastern North America.

The radio show was STAN AND HANEY that are on every day in many areas. They are heard on 96 Rock in my S.W. Fl.
Quoting 236. Bluestorm5:



I don't think they'll issue moderate risk for Saturday's storm from Day 3, but Sunday's storm? It's possible, although I'm not sure they'll pull the trigger based on performance this year uniess GFS/EMWRF (GFS especially) juice up some mure.

It's always possible both get one. I like Saturday a little more than Sunday, but both look like solid days.
Off topic but relevant to the group. The blogs on the new Wunderground page, in particular Dr Masters' freeze my computers upon opening. Both Linux firefox and Windows 7 Firefox have this issue and it is due to a java script getting stuck on something. It does prompt to kill the script, then this repeats many times as new scripts start and hang.

The old wunderground classic blog pages are not generating this error. I'd like to keep using the new interface rather than "classic" but this freeze results in a very annoying several minute delay.

More relevant. In spring 2012, my wisteria bloomed March 31. Now April 22, 2014, it is almost but still not quite blooming. We're over three weeks behind 2012 and about ten days behind a normal spring in vegetation development in the DC area.
I just want these stink'in trees to hurry up and bloom already.My allergies are out of control..The cold keeps delaying them though.
popular radio show heard over a very large area

They even went as far as to make a joke about how there's now a shortage of Hippies with dreadlocks due to the lack of concern about Earth day.


STAN AND HANEY
Things got crazy at work after my am posts but looks like the next Conus weather watch is for the possibility of some severe weather going into the weekend.  Something to keep an eye on for sure over the next several weeks.  As noted in a third-party post I posted this morning, that bitter cold pattern through the past several months, and the huge polar dips down into the South and Gulf in March and earlier this month, have prevented much of the southerly warm Gulf flow from penetrating into the interior section of the Mid-west.  That pattern is changing so the next several weather systems/lows crossing through the mid-west are going to encounter some more potential instability.  Have to keep a close eye on the location of the southern jet over the Conus over the next several weeks.

See Yall sometime tomorrow.....................WW.   
Quoting 240. barbamz:



Thanks for the info and the Wiki page. It's quite interesting how many uses people have found for it! I've heard the term 'sloe gin' many times, but never knew what it meant or where it was from.
Quoting 175. DoctorDave1:

Sea Ice Update April 20 2014 – Global Sea Ice 1.05 million sq. km Above Normal

https://twitter.com/PatriotPost/status/4585773215 83071234

And here is the data to prove it:

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/so uth/daily/data/

Really cannot have more ice than normal in a truly warming world. The world was warming 10-15 years ago, but the warming process has stopped.


You should learn to check your work, check your sources, and then learn the difference between a single data point and long term trend.

First, according NSDIC, CT, and various other arctic sea ice related science sites the current sea ice area is about 1 million sq. km LESS than average. It's approaching 2 standard deviations below average which is about where it has been for most of the 21st century. Here is a link to a site with multiple graphs, images, etc:

Link

Second, sea ice area isn't a good indicator of ice health. Sea ice volume is. Most of the ice in the arctic is thin 1st year ice. This is affected by everything from weather patterns to salinity. It also melts every summer. The thicker multi-year ice is what sticks around, and has been declining at a rapid pace over the past few decades. The ice that hangs around when the sun is beating down is a lot more important than the ice that forms when the sun goes down.

Third, you are incorrect about a warmer world meaning less sea ice. Multiple factors are involved in sea ice, including sea surface salinity. Regardless of how warm the world gets, the poles still end up with long periods of low to no insolation. It will still be cold in winter. That means ice will form. With land ice in the arctic also melting this may lead to lower salinity. Lower salinity means the ice will form at warmer temperatures. So even in a warmer world you could still wind up with a lot of ice in the arctic, but it will be weak, slushy first year ice.
And here comes the next big jet stream dip which is currently situated over California:


Quoting 242. TropicalAnalystwx13:


It's always possible both get one. I like Saturday a little more than Sunday, but both look like solid days.


Now I understand why you like Saturday. And you know me. I'm always slow to pull the trigger :)

252. VR46L
Quoting 251. Bluestorm5:



Now I understand why you like Saturday. And you know me. I'm always slow to pull the trigger :)




Every run is getting worse and worse ( or stormchasers would say better and better )!
Quoting 252. VR46L:



Every run is getting worse and worse ( or stormchasers would say better and better )!


It's getting worse for storm chasers too. First major outbreak of year + long slump being broken + insane analogs + possible first High Risk + maybe the best Plains setup in several years = chaser convergence.
Quoting 251. Bluestorm5:



Now I understand why you like Saturday. And you know me. I'm always slow to pull the trigger :)




can you tell me which site you use for the models. Tropical tidbits doesnt have that kind of map. Is it from a paid site?


severe weather coming soon!!
Quoting 254. nwobilderburg:



can you tell me which site you use for the models. Tropical tidbits doesnt have that kind of map. Is it from a paid site?


I got it from College of DuPage meteorology website. It's very impressive if you're into severe weather.

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/
257. VR46L
Quoting 254. nwobilderburg:



can you tell me which site you use for the models. Tropical tidbits doesnt have that kind of map. Is it from a paid site?


That is College of DuPage ..... It and Twisterdata are excellent for severe interpretation and free

COD forecast page

Twisterdata

Quoting 257. VR46L:



That is College of DuPage ..... It and Twisterdata are excellent for severe interpretation and free

COD forecast page

Twisterdata




Quoting 256. Bluestorm5:



I got it from College of DuPage meteorology website. It's very impressive if you're into severe weather.

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/



thanks!!!
Dr. Forbes may have to up his forecast..

Dr. Greg Forbes
2 hours ago
Right now the computer models are showing some pretty high cloud bases for Saturday, which is why I haven't gone higher than a TORCON 4. I'll continue to monitor the forecasts and update as necessary on subsequent days.
Quoting 259. ncstorm:

Dr. Forbes may have to up his forecast..

Dr. Greg Forbes
2 hours ago
Right now the computer models are showing some pretty high cloud bases for Saturday, which is why I haven't gone higher than a TORCON 4. I'll continue to monitor the forecasts and update as necessary on subsequent days.


"High cloud base"

At least Dr. Forbes is keeping the hype low for now.

Talk about bad timing. There's looming potential for significant severe weather across Dixie Alley next week, and of course, the Birmingham, AL NOAA weather radio transmitter has stopped working. Repairs might not be made until May 3.
News Article
Unfortunately the discussion about sea ice extent ignores both the volume question and the Antarctic sea ice, which has increased in areal extent slightly. However, as I stated before, I believe much or most of that Antarctic sea ice is icebergs calved from glaciers and their ice shelves, carried around the continent by the ocean currents. This sea ice is evidence of the increase in glacier flow and consequent mass loss of the land ice sheet, and studies have shown that the sea ice and ice shelves are being melted from below by the warmer ocean water. So the increased Antarctic sea really is evidence of global warming attacking the largest mass of ice in the world and reducing it at an accelerating rate.

Photograph taken by Francisco Negroni. Eruption of the complex volcano Cordon Caulle, in Chile.
Quoting 260. Bluestorm5:



"High cloud base"

At least Dr. Forbes is keeping the hype low for now.



I'm not sure why he's discussing high cloud bases with LCL heights below 1000m.
265. flsky
This first alcoholic drink I ever had was a sloe gin fizz. Delicious!
Quoting 240. barbamz:



Probably Prunus Spinosa, LAbonbon.
Prunus spinosa (blackthorn, bair or sloe) is a species of Prunus native to Europe, western Asia, and locally in northwest Africa. It is also locally naturalised in New Zealand and eastern North America.


Quoting 230. LAbonbon:



Lovely photos, barbamz. Anyone know what tree/shrub this is with the white blossoms?


I sure looks like a crab apple tree to me. (Holzapfelbaums)
Quoting 195. Neapolitan:

Nice, stable weather pattern coming up next week, with perfectly latitudinal zonal flow holding sway:



Not. Record highs in the Desert Southwest, and record lows on the Texas Gulf Coast? That's quite a setup, no?


Wish some of that blue was over us here in the Tampa area.


Our cosmic oasis, cosmic blue pearl
the most beautiful planet in the universe
our cosmic oasis, cosmic blue pearl
all the continents and the oceans of the world
united we stand as flora and fauna
united we stand as species of one earth
black, brown, white, different colours
we are humans, the earth is our home...

from "Earth Anthem" by Abhay Kumar


The Earth Day Flag created by John McConnell.

Earth Day is an annual event, celebrated on April 22, on which events are held worldwide to demonstrate support for environmental protection. It was first celebrated in 1970, and is now coordinated globally by the Earth Day Network, and celebrated in more than 192 countries each year.
Quoting 264. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I'm not sure why he's discussing high cloud bases with LCL heights below 1000m.

It is possible that moisture return is a little less than indicated and/or dewpoints mix out more than indicated, which is a fairly common thing for areas further west in the Great Plains. However, with things as aggressive as they are currently modeled, these occurrences wouldn't take too much away from the bottom line, which is a higher-end severe weather day.
Quoting georgevandenberghe:
Off topic but relevant to the group. The blogs on the new Wunderground page, in particular Dr Masters' freeze my computers upon opening. Both Linux firefox and Windows 7 Firefox have this issue and it is due to a java script getting stuck on something. It does prompt to kill the script, then this repeats many times as new scripts start and hang.

The old wunderground classic blog pages are not generating this error. I'd like to keep using the new interface rather than "classic" but this freeze results in a very annoying several minute delay.



Totally agree with you, George. I've got the exact same problems over here. And I'm tired of having to reboot my computer when using the new site.

Lindy
Quoting 242. TropicalAnalystwx13:


It's always possible both get one. I like Saturday a little more than Sunday, but both look like solid days.

Out of the two days, I feel like Sunday has the highest ceiling, but also has the highest chance of being caught between shortwaves, which could result in the day not living up to its potential. Impossible to tell at this point though. Monday is also very much a wild card at this point.
Quoting 271. VirginIslandsVisitor:



Totally agree with you, George. I've got the exact same problems over here. And I'm tired of having to reboot my computer when using the new site.

Lindy

No problems with chrome. It is a simple free download
Quoting 271. VirginIslandsVisitor:



Totally agree with you, George. I've got the exact same problems over here. And I'm tired of having to reboot my computer when using the new site.

Lindy

I cut the display to 50 posts per page. That helps greatly.
My advice to colleges and universities on this Earth Day:

If you all support environmentalism and climate responsibility so much.......Stop wasting paper mailing me all this trash.


Probably never yours truly,
GeorgiaStormz
Also the GFS may extend the threat quite far east
Possibly as far as Alabama. By this time the tornado threat would be much lower, but we are lacking in even our hail/wind events

Quoting Ameister12:
Talk about bad timing. There's looming potential for significant severe weather across Dixie Alley next week, and of course, the Birmingham, AL NOAA weather radio transmitter has stopped working. Repairs might not be made until May 3.
News Article

I posted about this earlier today. It would take less than a day to get a new transmitter from any of several radio sources I use regularly. This is a great example of Birmingham's poor planning. Our wide area amateur radio repeaters have a failsoft secondary transmitter that will broadcast at lower power but still allow most users to get into the repeater until repairs or replacement can be done. Birmingham apparently had no contingency plan for this type of failure. I don't know who these "technicians" are but, if they are contractors, there should have been a specific level of staffing and response time if there's a major failure as part of their contract. I can't imagine they are NWS/NOAA employees but, if they are, they obviously need to reconsider that idea compared to a radio service provider. There's absolutely no excuse for the weather radio transmitter in a major metropolitan area to be down for more than 10 days during the height of severe weather season down here. I haven't heard anything about if the remote stations like Tuscaloosa (50 miles from BMX) will broadcast warnings that apply to Birmingham using Birmingham SAME codes or not and, as you can tell from the news story, they aren't telling the public either. Now we are facing the possibility of a high end severe weather event and people will have to scramble around trying to get news about what's happening. By a macabre coincidence, Sunday will mark the third anniversary of the worst tornado outbreak in Alabama history, with most of the storms occurring in the Birmingham CWA. I am absolutely outraged over this, as you can probably tell. Heads should roll over this, but they won't, and BMX will stumble along like usual.
Quoting VirginIslandsVisitor:


Totally agree with you, George. I've got the exact same problems over here. And I'm tired of having to reboot my computer when using the new site.

Lindy

From what I can tell from my own testing, the new site seems to have been written specifically for Chrome. IE10-11 seem to run OK with some glitches but the site gets completely pear shaped with Firefox. This is a failure in both programming and testing, since the new site should have been tested with at least the top 3 most used web browsers, of which Firefox is number 3. If they did test it, it apparently wasn't a very extensive test. I have stayed with Classic since the very first "upgrade" of the site and it works fine with any browser. The only functional difference between Classic and the new site is that you can use Rich Text on the new site, which really screws up Firefox, and graphics are repeated ad nauseum each time a post is quoted - another bad idea. All I can tell you to do is switch to Chrome. I like it, but there are things it won't do and Firefox will. If you want to stay with Firefox, use Classic.
279. txjac
Quoting 268. jrweatherman:



Wish some of that blue was over us here in the Tampa area.



I'm liking where the blue/purple is.


hail report!!!
severe weather!!!

Bigger Threat This Weekend?

The American and European models disagree on the details, but signs are pointing to the possibility of a more dangerous severe weather episode, including tornadoes, for parts of the central and southern Plains this weekend.

Although the details are subject to change and we have several days to monitor the situation, here are the general areas of concern Saturday and Sunday.

Saturday: Portions of Kansas, Oklahoma and northwestern Texas.

Sunday: Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Arkansas and north Texas.

Storm to Spoil Spring for Millions Next Week in Midwest, East
Alex Sosnowski
By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist
April 22, 2014; 8:40 PM
Play video Chief Meteorologist Elliot Abrams discusses the short term weather in this video.

A large storm will form over the eastern half of the nation next week and will bring a swath of unsettled conditions that lasts for days.




Quoting 278. sar2401:


From what I can tell from my own testing, the new site seems to have been written specifically for Chrome. IE10-11 seem to run OK with some glitches but the site gets completely pear shaped with Firefox. This is a failure in both programming and testing, since the new site should have been tested with at least the top 3 most used web browsers, of which Firefox is number 3. If they did test it, it apparently wasn't a very extensive test. I have stayed with Classic since the very first "upgrade" of the site and it works fine with any browser. The only functional difference between Classic and the new site is that you can use Rich Text on the new site, which really screws up Firefox, and graphics are repeated ad nauseum each time a post is quoted - another bad idea. All I can tell you to do is switch to Chrome. I like it, but there are things it won't do and Firefox will. If you want to stay with Firefox, use Classic.



I am hardly on anymore and so are a lot of other people. The site takes forever to open and freezes up my PC. The graphics keep getting messed up and refresh takes forever. At my age, I don't have the time to waster on long refreshes. And NO, we should not have to switch to Chrome because of one site.
Quoting 266. Grothar:



I sure looks like a crab apple tree to me. (Holzapfelbaums)
ya that's what it is
Quoting 285. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

ya that's what it is


Have I ever steered you wrong? :)
Ok trying to follow all the postings, driving to Kansas City from Tampa on thursday. I think I will miss most of the first weather traveling. Plan to be in KC by Friday afternoon, should be north of the worst. Coming back on May 2 and 3. not sure about that weather but will keep an eye open. Am I correct in guessing we will be ahead of, possibly north of the worst going to KC?
Quoting 287. splash3392:

Ok trying to follow all the postings, driving to Kansas City from Tampa on thursday. I think I will miss most of the first weather traveling. Plan to be in KC by Friday afternoon, should be north of the worst. Coming back on May 2 and 3. not sure about that weather but will keep an eye open. Am I correct in guessing we will be ahead of, possibly north of the worst going to KC?




Hmmm...
Gro you quoted me but no comment. Does that mean my guesses are right? Or an issue with posting?
Ok graphic posted. Guess I'm Ok TY
Quoting 93. ricderr:

stay away from candles :-)


Hurricane Katrina came through here on August 29, 2005. We were without power for five days and five hours. We never used candles, but had regular batteries for the radio, and rechargeable batteries that kept their charge for night lighting. Warnings on the news was NOT to use candles because of possible fires.

Elsewhere on our website, we talk about objects in your home that can be "hosts" for demons. Candles can also be a "host".

A former African witchdoctor who practiced witchcraft for over twenty years said that demons are attracted to the substance candles are made out of. Candles were a part of his witchcraft. It does not matter what color, shape, or smell they have. When lit, the smell of the candle also calls on another big time demon. Is it a wonder why the candle business is in the Billions of dollars a year! No wonder too that so many churches have candles all over the place.

Get rid of all your candles. You may just be getting rid of some of your problems. This also pertains to incense.

For those Bible researchers who read that "candles" were mentioned in the Bible, look in your Strong's concordance. The Original term is "lamp" "oil" or "oil lamp", NOT "candle". The menorah tradition goes back to 165 B.C. They did not use candles, but used oil.

After you get rid of the candles, command all the demons to leave you and your property, in the name of Jesus, JUST IN CASE.

What if the lights go out, you say? Use a flashlight!


Wait, how did we go from candles in hurricane Katrina to candles and demons?

I would post the "that escalated quickly" meme if it wasn't overused ;)
Quoting Grothar:



I am hardly on anymore and so are a lot of other people. The site takes forever to open and freezes up my PC. The graphics keep getting messed up and refresh takes forever. At my age, I don't have the time to waster on long refreshes. And NO, we should not have to switch to Chrome because of one site.

I totally agree. The "team" has not been responsive at all to the problems, and there's no reason why a brand new site should be throwing up script errors if the testing was done correctly. With the exception of the two functional differences I mentioned, everything else is cosmetic, so the site looks "modern", e.g. a cross between Apple OS X and Windows 8, with icons that make no sense to most users. My expectations for how the site would perform were low, and I haven't been disappointed so far. :-(
293. flsky
Odd, b/c I haven't had one problem this time. I'm using Chrome - don't know if that makes a difference.
Quoting 284. Grothar:




I am hardly on anymore and so are a lot of other people. The site takes forever to open and freezes up my PC. The graphics keep getting messed up and refresh takes forever. At my age, I don't have the time to waster on long refreshes. And NO, we should not have to switch to Chrome because of one site.
294. txjac
Quoting 293. flsky:

Odd, b/c I haven't had one problem this time. I'm using Chrome - don't know if that makes a difference.



It does apparently. I am on chrome as well for work ..and it is working beautifully. However I havent been on my home computer that is IE so I cant comment on that viewpoint
I downsized from a 5.3L V8 4X4 truck that averaged 10 mpg city and 18 highway to a small compact sports car that has 2.4 L V4 and gets 23 mpg city and 32 highway and is still faster than the truck despite a small engine, feeling more green for Earth day, and saving a tons on gas, insurance, and maintenance.

As an outdoor guy I like trucks but the expense is too great for fuel and maintenance being in college so I downsized. In the end though I'm glad as I'm not only saving money but the fuel efficiency makes me feel better about my impact on ecology as an advocate of ecological improvement.

Unfortunately, as much as I like trucks and off road vehicles, they will probably be the last vehicles to "go green" as most people that like to use trucks like I do down here ignorantly despise environmental progress so it will be a long time before we see alternative fuel trucks. Ironically such people ignorantly make fun of alternative fuel vehicles when an electric vehicle would provide much more impressive torque for off road.

Maybe I'll go electric someday when I can afford it, and if the auto industry stops producing half hearted engineering into electric vehicles and then complaining they don't sell. We all know this is bull crap as electric motors are superior in performance to gas engines. They don't need a transmission and they are much more efficient, instantaneous power.

If we worked on solar energy, reducing power plant emissions, and expanding solar and wind production, and electric vehicles, we could really make a difference.

I'm impressed with the increase in solar panels around Tallahassee and recently they've added all electric city busses to the area.
Evening all. We had a wonderful Earth Day here. Good party wx...

Any interesting news storm-wise?
The site works fine for me, and there's not much wrong with it....but I don't embrace change very well..
Which is why I use the classic wunderground. I just got on chat from there because I CANT FIND IT HERE. GAHRR.
pa·tri·ot
/ˈpātrēət/
noun: patriot; plural noun: patriots; noun: Patriot
1. a person who vigorously supports their country and is prepared to defend it against enemies or detractors.
"would a true patriot abandon a comrade?"
2. trademark an automated surface-to-air missile designed for preemptive strikes.

this word is used far too much without the true meaning behind it
Quoting 297. JrWeathermanFL:

The site works fine for me, and there's not much wrong with it....but I don't embrace change very well..
Which is why I use the classic wunderground. I just got on chat from there because I CANT FIND IT HERE. GAHRR.


SITE MAP LOOK UNDER SOCIAL

Link
Should have done it earlier, but chat room anyone?

http://www.wunderground.com/community/chat.asp
Hey, Jed. I like your comment about the solar power. I still have this mental image of cars and other vehicles completely covered by solar cells instead of paint so that whenever they are in sunlight they are receiving energy. I could really see this working for planes and trains, buses too... all the space taken up by the gas tank could be allocated to a battery of batteries that would store power enough to allow for extended journeys. Solarized homes would have solar roof tiles instead of shingles... of course the technology would need to be developed first, but I think it could work.
Quoting 296. BahaHurican:

Evening all. We had a wonderful Earth Day here. Good party wx...

Any interesting news storm-wise?


waiting on 00z model runs nam hires just started
Quoting BahaHurican:
Evening all. We had a wonderful Earth Day here. Good party wx...

Any interesting news storm-wise?


Upcoming weekend could be very interesting for severe weather. See previous comments for more detail.
Quoting 303. Astrometeor:



Upcoming weekend could be very interesting for severe weather. See previous comments for more detail.
Reading back now. Ta vm...
Quoting 297. JrWeathermanFL:

The site works fine for me, and there's not much wrong with it....but I don't embrace change very well..
Which is why I use the classic wunderground. I just got on chat from there because I CANT FIND IT HERE. GAHRR.


Go up to the top and Click "More," "Sitemap," scroll down near the bottom and you find "Social," bottom of that is "Visitor Chat." or Chatrooms Bookmark me.

Quoting 305. PedleyCA:



Go up to the top and Click "More," "Sitemap," scroll down near the bottom and you find "Social," bottom of that is "Visitor Chat." or Chatrooms Bookmark me.




Hey Ped, hit 83F here today with a feels like of 86F. Tomorrow is supposed to be hotter.

307. txjac
Quoting 301. BahaHurican:

Hey, Jed. I like your comment about the solar power. I still have this mental image of cars and other vehicles completely covered by solar cells instead of paint so that whenever they are in sunlight they are receiving energy. I could really see this working for planes and trains, buses too... all the space taken up by the gas tank could be allocated to a battery of batteries that would store power enough to allow for extended journeys. Solarized homes would have solar roof tiles instead of shingles... of course the technology would need to be developed first, but I think it could work.


Part of the problem is Homeowners Associations ...they do not allow for people to install solar panels on their homes ..this needs to be changed to encourage people to install


Photo of the mean sky from York, PA earlier. Not taken by me. I missed the thunderstorms so much :p I am glad they are back
Quoting 301. BahaHurican:

Hey, Jed. I like your comment about the solar power. I still have this mental image of cars and other vehicles completely covered by solar cells instead of paint so that whenever they are in sunlight they are receiving energy. I could really see this working for planes and trains, buses too... all the space taken up by the gas tank could be allocated to a battery of batteries that would store power enough to allow for extended journeys. Solarized homes would have solar roof tiles instead of shingles... of course the technology would need to be developed first, but I think it could work.


They used to have solar shingles. Cars and even trucks are tough. You'll never get the payback... At least at todays prices. Better to use the money towards a grid tie system at the house. Unless you can't because of HOA or you don't own your house.
Personally, the second one is my favorite.

On April 22, 1883...
Nashville records greatest one-day rainfall for April, with 5.03".

On April 22, 1997...
Lightning strikes a 130-year-old red oak tree northeast of Lynchburg. Chunks of wood weighing as much as 175 pounds fly about 50 yards. One large piece of wood is embedded in the tail light of a car. The lightning follows the tree's roots, digging a trench almost 3 feet deep into and under a house. Flying wood damages the home and 3 cars.
Quoting 301. BahaHurican:

Hey, Jed. I like your comment about the solar power. I still have this mental image of cars and other vehicles completely covered by solar cells instead of paint so that whenever they are in sunlight they are receiving energy. I could really see this working for planes and trains, buses too... all the space taken up by the gas tank could be allocated to a battery of batteries that would store power enough to allow for extended journeys. Solarized homes would have solar roof tiles instead of shingles... of course the technology would need to be developed first, but I think it could work.



The expense of the vehicles having solar cells might be a bit much, but buildings are definitely practical, it would help to reduce the urban heat island effect during the summer as well.

Solar power plants definitely need to be increased. I like the idea the Tesla is doing, as of now they have electric super charger stations that run of the latest efficiency in solar panel technology, as a result, they don't charge tesla drivers to use them.

Obviously non-Tesla drivers will probably be charged, but the rate is expected to be really cheap given that they are solar powered.

I think this is a great idea, if we could build a ton of solar powered charging stations across the country, I think a lot more people would buy electric vehicles. The biggest issue from people is the fear of running out of power given the lack of charging stations.

Running them on solar is just an obvious smart solution emissions wise, that also makes for good incentive for buyers, and nobody needs to worry a about energy rates going up when you run on solar, unless of course we have a nuclear winter or a volcanic winter, lol.
hr 24 hires nam 00z

hr 27 00z hires nam

hr 30 hires nam 00z

Yep - the new format was a bit for me as well ... I use the computer models a lot to schedule boats and the new format is longer to get to them. But - I'm warming up to the overall concept. (used to visit the start of WU using Netscape Navigator 1.0 !!) - cheers

from the Key West NWS discussion ...

ON APRIL 22ND IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...THE LAST TIME KEY WEST HIT 88
DEGREES ON APRIL 22ND WAS 77 YEARS AGO IN 1937. THIS SET UP A THREE
WAY TIE FOR THE DAILY RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ON APRIL 22ND
PREVIOUSLY SET IN 1908...AND 1882. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST
DATE BACK TO 1872.
Quoting 295. Jedkins01:

I downsized from a 5.3L V8 4X4 truck that averaged 10 mpg city and 18 highway to a small compact sports car that has 2.4 L V4 and gets 23 mpg city and 32 highway and is still faster than the truck despite a small engine, feeling more green for Earth day, and saving a tons on gas, insurance, and maintenance.

As an outdoor guy I like trucks but the expense is too great for fuel and maintenance being in college so I downsized. In the end though I'm glad as I'm not only saving money but the fuel efficiency makes me feel better about my impact on ecology as an advocate of ecological improvement.

Unfortunately, as much as I like trucks and off road vehicles, they will probably be the last vehicles to "go green" as most people that like to use trucks like I do down here ignorantly despise environmental progress so it will be a long time before we see alternative fuel trucks. Ironically such people ignorantly make fun of alternative fuel vehicles when an electric vehicle would provide much more impressive torque for off road.

Maybe I'll go electric someday when I can afford it, and if the auto industry stops producing half hearted engineering into electric vehicles and then complaining they don't sell. We all know this is bull crap as electric motors are superior in performance to gas engines. They don't need a transmission and they are much more efficient, instantaneous power.

If we worked on solar energy, reducing power plant emissions, and expanding solar and wind production, and electric vehicles, we could really make a difference.

I'm impressed with the increase in solar panels around Tallahassee and recently they've added all electric city busses to the area.


You might get a kick out of this brewery that seems to be thinking right up your alley when it comes to electric powered trucks:

Steam Whistle Brewing — Combination Of Classic Cars and Green Energy
Read more at http://cleantechnica.com/2014/03/31/steam-whistle- brewing-combination-classic-cars-green-energy/#bwX X7zkXwu67O2rM.99



“Retro Electro” comes off the line with a mere 90 HP, but 465 lb/ft of tire smoking torque peaking between 200-300 rpms. A 31-spline Ford 9 inch rear at a 1:6.83 gear ratio, a modified Camaro front end and a two piece driveshaft make sure all that torque is delivered to a more than capable drivetrain. Beefed up shocks, upgraded rack-and-pinion steering, and a beautifully balanced 51% rear/49% front weight distribution help ensure a comfortable ride in this daily driver.
The link has several more of their delivery vehicles from the 50s and 60s. Link Wray background soundtrack sold separately :D
The CFS thinks severe weather will remain over the Great Plains May 6th - May 13th.

00z GFS for Saturday's setup in KS and OK is down right scary... No brainer high risk.
Quoting 319. Thrawst:

00z GFS for Saturday's setup in KS and OK is down right scary... No brainer high risk.


Not as good as 12z GFS, though. I'll argue Sunday is now better than Saturday. The atmosphere is great, but it all about the timing with the low. The faster low travel, the better.
Quoting 250. weathermanwannabe:

And here comes the next big jet stream dip which is currently situated over California:





Note what's happening over central Nevada. Been windy and chilly all day, after days in the 70's today never quite broke 60*F. At 10pm, it's already down to 43*F, and we're supposed to brush freezing - I say brush past it a bit. Not more than a few drips here, but in Fallon proper my daughter saw hail around the high school.
Quoting 319. Thrawst:

00z GFS for Saturday's setup in KS and OK is down right scary... No brainer high risk.

Throw the entire run out. Huge convective feedback issues beginning after hour 96 screws up everything.

Quoting 315. docrod:

Yep - the new format was a bit for me as well ... I use the computer models a lot to schedule boats and the new format is longer to get to them. But - I'm warming up to the overall concept. (used to visit the start of WU using Netscape Navigator 1.0 !!) - cheers

from the Key West NWS discussion ...

ON APRIL 22ND IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...THE LAST TIME KEY WEST HIT 88
DEGREES ON APRIL 22ND WAS 77 YEARS AGO IN 1937. THIS SET UP A THREE
WAY TIE FOR THE DAILY RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ON APRIL 22ND
PREVIOUSLY SET IN 1908...AND 1882. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST
DATE BACK TO 1872.
Interesting. Today would have been my grandmother-in-laws birthday. Born in Key West in '08, apparently on a hot day. This might explain the temper.
324. flsky
A few months ago I read an article regarding paint under development that would act in the manner of solar cells. Haven't seen anything lately.

Quoting 301. BahaHurican:

Hey, Jed. I like your comment about the solar power. I still have this mental image of cars and other vehicles completely covered by solar cells instead of paint so that whenever they are in sunlight they are receiving energy. I could really see this working for planes and trains, buses too... all the space taken up by the gas tank could be allocated to a battery of batteries that would store power enough to allow for extended journeys. Solarized homes would have solar roof tiles instead of shingles... of course the technology would need to be developed first, but I think it could work.
I was on the Google page earlier, and saw it had an odd logo - a guy on horseback attacking a huge fire breathing dragon with a lance. First thought was that it was connected with 'The Hobbit' and Smaug, the dragon. Then, I realised that today is St. George's Day in England. St. George is the patron saint of England, and he was one heck of a dragonslayer in his heyday, by all accounts.

So, a happy St. George's day to our friends in England.
Good Morning!.......................................... ...............................................
Some striking photographs, though, one must say, it seems to be the year of the overdone HDR image.

As the novelty of this effect wears off, the overall effects will be better.

But then I recognize that I am a dinosaur, as I still shoot film at times.

La seule constante est le changement.
I'm a bird lover, as of today, many of the birds in Indiana cannot build nest because there is isn't any foliage to protect them.
Result of Global cooling!
Quoting 328. trunkmonkey:

I'm a bird lover, as of today, many of the birds in Indiana cannot build nest because there is isn't any foliage to protect them.
Result of Global cooling!


"Global cooling"? Not on this planet, my fine friend of our fine feathered friends. It's been cold in northern North America, but normal to pretty toasty most everywhere else. Look:



Good morning.

The latest update about the Severe Weather event for this weekend.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

VALID 261200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
..SIGNIFICANT MULTI-DAY SEVERE EVENT EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE MS
VALLEY AND MID SOUTH ON MONDAY...STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE
ECMWF DUE TO RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE 500MB EVOLUTION OF
WRN U.S. TROUGH. CONCERNS REGARDING POLAR FRONT UNDERCUTTING STRONG
SWLY FLOW ALOFT HAVE ABATED THIS MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE DEEPENS
LEE CYCLONE OVER SERN CO SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT
INTO WRN KS ON SUNDAY. INTENSE 500MB SPEED MAX APPROACHING 90KT
SHOULD ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ALONG THE AZ/MEXICAN BORDER THEN
EJECT INTO SWRN KS EARLY SUNDAY. AS A RESULT SFC LOW IS NOT
EXPECTED TO ADVANCE APPRECIABLY EWD UNTIL LATER MONDAY AS SECONDARY
MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX DEVELOPS FROM NORTH TX INTO THE LOWER OH RIVER
VALLEY.

MODERATE TO EXTREME INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP EAST OF THE DRYLINE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG ERN PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES. STRONGLY
DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ENCOURAGE VIGOROUS SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
FROM PORTIONS OF WCNTRL TX...NWD INTO KS. VERY LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE WILL MIX SUNDAY AS
LOWEST PRESSURES WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF WRN
KS. MODELS MIX DRYLINE EAST OF I-35 CORRIDOR ACROSS OK BY 18Z
SUNDAY BUT THE DAY5 FORECAST WILL ACCOUNT FOR DRYLINE NOT MIXING
ACROSS THE PLAINS AS FAST AS MODELS CURRENTLY DEPICT. AS A
RESULT...SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE
MOIST/BUOYANT WARM SECTOR AND ANOTHER DIURNALLY-INITIATED ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS COULD EVOLVE.

LATER MONDAY IT APPEARS THE SFC FRONT/DRYLINE SHOULD ADVANCE INTO
THE MS VALLEY. SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS SHOULD EVOLVE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FROM LA...NWD INTO MO AND POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS MIDDLE
TN. TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH WARM-SECTOR
CONVECTION.

..DARROW.. 04/23/2014

Today's SPC outlook- 30% hatched for hail:



DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY INITIAL HAZARD...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN/NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
EJECT NEWD TOWARDS THE SRN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND NRN PLAINS. AN
UPSTREAM IMPULSE JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE BROADER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ...REACHING THE SRN
ROCKIES THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE CNTRL HIGH/NRN PLAINS WITH A DRYLINE MIXING INTO SW NEB TO W TX
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL PROGRESSIVELY OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE
AND REACH THE LOWER MO VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS ON THU MORNING.

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
THE PLUME OF RICHEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /CHARACTERIZED BY PW VALUES
OF 1.25-1.50 INCH PER 00Z RAOBS AND GPS DATA/ WILL LIKELY EMANATE
NWD FROM DEEP S TX WITHIN A N/S-ORIENTED CORRIDOR AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT/DRYLINE. ALTHOUGH THIS MOISTURE INFLUX
WILL BE RELATIVELY MODEST /ESPECIALLY WITH NRN EXTENT/...SURFACE DEW
POINTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 50S N OF THE RED RIVER WITH LOWER 60S
ACROSS CNTRL TX.

LATEST EXPECTATIONS REMAIN SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK WITH TWO
GENERAL REGIMES FOR SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT AMIDST QUITE STEEP
TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS CNTRL NEB INTO NRN
KS...STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SEWD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
BENEATH MODERATE-STRONG 500-MB SWLYS OWING TO THE GLANCING INFLUENCE
OF THE NRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...A FEW SUPERCELLS SHOULD FORM
PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL. WITH LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND
UNDERCUTTING NATURE OF THE COLD FRONT...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
QUICKLY ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS AND SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS. SEVERE
HAIL/WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING...WITH INTENSITY WANING
OVERNIGHT TOWARDS THE MO VALLEY.

FARTHER S...SCATTERED DISCRETE TSTMS WILL FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE
LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. INITIAL ACTIVITY SHOULD CONSIST OF
HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KT. LARGE HAIL /A FEW SIGNIFICANT/ AND ISOLATED
SEVERE WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. DURING THE
EVENING...LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BECOME QUITE ENLARGED AS FLOW
STRENGTHENS. POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES MAY BE REALIZED BETWEEN
00-03Z ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF NEAR 60 DEG F SURFACE DEW POINTS
INVOF W OK/NW TX. STILL...QUALITY OF BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
A LIMITING FACTOR TO A MORE ROBUST TORNADO RISK. WITH
TIME...COALESCING OF UPDRAFTS AND PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA MAY YIELD
A SMALL MCS MOVING EWD ACROSS PARTS OF OK AND N TX WITH SEVERE
HAIL/WIND RISKS SUBSIDING EARLY THU.

..GRAMS/MOSIER.. 04/23/2014
Quoting trunkmonkey:
I'm a bird lover, as of today, many of the birds in Indiana cannot build nest because there is isn't any foliage to protect them.
Result of Global cooling!


Definately a cold winter over the Eastern half of the U.S.
It will be interesting to see how this summer ends up and then next winter.

I do know that as soon as it starts getting up to 90 degrees on the Eastcoast they will start screaming "heatwave!"
Quoting 328. trunkmonkey:

I'm a bird lover, as of today, many of the birds in Indiana cannot build nest because there is isn't any foliage to protect them.
Result of Global cooling!

Of course, Indiana is ááááálllll of the world and Holland is behind Jupiter.
Quoting trunkmonkey:
I'm a bird lover, as of today, many of the birds in Indiana cannot build nest because there is isn't any foliage to protect them.
Result of Global cooling!



Result of local cooling. Eastern North America has averaged well below normal this winter, the only part of the entire hemisphere that averaged colder than normal. Pre El Nino summers average cooler than normal in the Eastern U.S. also. GLOBAL warming is still happening, we're just in a place (like 2009) that is locally cooler for now.

Spring in DC is running about 10-14 days behind usual this year, the most retarded I've seen in many years.
335. MahFL
Quoting 301. BahaHurican:


The space a gas tank takes up is way too small for batteries to power a car.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
349 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.NEAR TERM (TODAY - TONIGHT)...
LIGHT WINDS AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AGAIN ALLOW SOME
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING SO WILL RETAIN A MENTION OF IN
THE GRIDS AND ZONES. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY WITH AN ATTENDANT BACK DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHERN PENINSULA THE REST OF THE MORNING WHERE IT WILL WASH
OUT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. LACK OF MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE RAIN CHANCES
WITH THESE FEATURES WITH PLEASANT DRY WEATHER AND JUST A FEW CLOUDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S OVER
INLAND LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS
EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO SEA BREEZE.

.MID TERM (THURSDAY - FRIDAY)...
SHALLOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE SETUP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS ON THURSDAY...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...GENERALLY AROUND 1.25 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER OR
LESS...THE INFLUENCE OF THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD ENHANCE THE SEA BREEZE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL ON FRIDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM BOTH DAYS...WITH HIGHS
OVER THE INTERIOR REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY)...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE OVER ABOVE FLORIDA GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
RIDGING ACROSS FLORIDA. GRADIENT FLOW WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH EACH DAY
THROUGH TUESDAY FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP...WITH ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. A COLD FRONT BE CLOSING IN ON THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY...RESULTING IN THE BEST RAIN CHANCES OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90 OVER THE
INTERIOR...AND LOWS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S.

&&
337. MahFL
Quoting 311. Jedkins01:




if we could build a ton of solar powered charging stations across the country.



We can't, it's too expensive, electric cars are just a pipe dream.
Quoting 335. MahFL:



The space a gas tank takes up is way too small for batteries to power a car.
i dunno,they are getting better at it,but battery technology has to get much better before an all battery car really takes off,my hybrid gets great gas millage and uses battery on and off and recharges as i run, 10-15 years from now i'd love to see how this advances
Looks like the end of april we need to stay alert............................................. ..
yeah end of april might get a bit stormy around here.............................................. .
Quoting 337. MahFL:



We can't, it's too expensive, electric cars are just a pipe dream.


I can't exercise, it's too hard, being fit is just a pipe dream.

We can't get off the ground, flying is too risky, air travel is just a pipe dream.

We can't stop the plantation system, farming is too expensive without it, getting rid of slavery is just a pipe dream.

Yessir, it's true visionaries like some here who've brought us to where we are... ;}

Quoting 335. MahFL:



The space a gas tank takes up is way too small for batteries to power a car.


For now, yes. But then again, an electric motor takes up far less space than an internal combustion engine and all its attendant components.
I'm building a house right now, and I did the math. Solar panels pay for themselves easily. You can get solar shingles (DOW PowerHouse) rolled into your construction loan and the money you save on electricity more than offsets the additional P&I payments immediately. Traditional panels will too. Anyone redoing their roof should get a quote on the solar shingles or some panels and see how it will work at their location.
In one of my magazines they did a race between a modern electric car vs. an old Model T (or something from that era in a race across the country.
The race ended up being very close because of all the time spent re-charging the electric batteries.
And this was a race against a Model T.

Electric vehicles or combination electric engines is definitely the furture. It just needs a little more time to develop. They are making batteries smaller, lighter and more powerfull every year.

On the other hand, the old pushrod engine is getting more and more effecient. The 460hp LT1 engine in the new Corvette gets 30 mpg on the highway, which is pretty darn good for a 460hp V8. A similarly powered V8 would have made about 8-10 mpg back in the day.
Quoting sonofagunn:
I'm building a house right now, and I did the math. Solar panels pay for themselves easily. You can get solar shingles (DOW PowerHouse) rolled into your construction loan and the money you save on electricity more than offsets the additional P&I payments immediately. Traditional panels will too. Anyone redoing their roof should get a quote on the solar shingles or some panels and see how it will work at their location.


It is expensive. We have a two complete sections of our roof with solar panels. They usually last about 15 years and then they start having issues. Then it's another $15K (for a system like ours) to replace the panels.

But saying that, I would recommend solar panels/tiles whenever possible if you have the money. Nearly every house in our neighborhood has solar tiles.

I wouldn't recommend it in areas that have a lot of severe weather with hail. Hurricane Charley did damage to our panels and they needed to be replace along with a lot of concrete roof tiles.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


My opinion is this is going to be strong and I have made post stating why I believe so. Moderate maybe but definitely not weak.


My opinion we are in for at least a weak El Nino, according to this model spread. Some models are below the 0.5 some are above 1.0 but the average would put it in weak. Sorry bubba just stating fact ATM.

Quoting 346. StormWx:


My opinion we are in for at least a weak El Nino, according to this model spread. Some models are below the 0.5 some are above 1.0 but the average would put it in weak. Sorry bubba just stating fact ATM.



First off don't call me bubba Rupaul.



Nino 3.4 is already at .5C
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


First off don't call me bubba Rupaul.



lol thats not nice bubba! Anywho, we're on the cusp in the 3.4 region but that dot isnt above 0.5C. Maybe that Kelvin wave is going to surface soon, thoughts? :o)

Quoting 348. StormWx:


lol thats not nice bubba! Anywho, we're on the cusp in the 3.4 region.



Yeah the map you posted shows negative in post# 346 so maybe you need to go back to the drawing board.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Yeah the map you posted shows negative in post# 346 so maybe you need to go back to the drawing board.



thats because it was March bubba, the current graph you shows obvious warming. The point of the first graph was to show model support of a weak El Nino. I'll discuss it further when we actually have one. Right now we are in neutral conditions. In the meantime, enjoy the gorgeous Orlando weather bubba! Not a rain drop in site, with temps a few degrees above normal. About par for the course!



Now this is weird ESPI went from plus .85 yesterday to minus .11 today and the SOI went plus 19.5 on the daily average. I wonder why with the MJO coming across?

Edit thanks to Skye ESPI is .87. Must have had the wrong date.
Personally I don't care to see or want to see a super el nino in my life time again.It sucked and our snow was rain for the winter (Like the winter of 2012).I remember for the winter of 97-98 I wore a light jacket most of the time like I did in 2012.After a awesome winter like What we've just had (D.C saw it's first snow flakes the day before thanksgiving and (for now) our last flakes last Tuesday with awesome snow storms in between).I don't want a sucky winter.
Quoting 351. StormTrackerScott:

Now this is weird ESPI went from plus .85 yesterday to minus .11 today and the SOI went plus 19.5 on the daily average. I wonder why with the MJO coming across?
This is why I'm not jumping on the "super" el nino train until 1) we have a el nino declared and 2) we see where it goes from there (whether it stays weak or intensifies and the peak).
Quoting 352. washingtonian115:
Personally I don't care to see or want to see a super el nino in my life time again.It sucked and our snow was rain for the winter (Like the winter of 2012).I remember for the winter of 97 I wore a light jacket most of the time like I did in 2012.After a awesome winter like What we've just had (D.C saw it's first snow flakes the day before thanksgiving and (for now) our last flakes last Tuesday with awesome snow storms in between).I don't want a sucky winter.


Well we may not get it as the SOI refuses to go negative. Strong El-Nino though is still in the cards with especially with such an anomalous warm pool.

Here's the sea level anomalies and this already looks like El-Nino.


355. MahFL
Quoting 345. Sfloridacat5:



they needed to be replace..


Then dumped into a landfill, no doubt.
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

VALID 261200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
..SIGNIFICANT MULTI-DAY SEVERE EVENT EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE MS
VALLEY AND MID SOUTH ON MONDAY...STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE
ECMWF DUE TO RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE 500MB EVOLUTION OF
WRN U.S. TROUGH. CONCERNS REGARDING POLAR FRONT UNDERCUTTING STRONG
SWLY FLOW ALOFT HAVE ABATED THIS MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE DEEPENS
LEE CYCLONE OVER SERN CO SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT
INTO WRN KS ON SUNDAY. INTENSE 500MB SPEED MAX APPROACHING 90KT
SHOULD ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ALONG THE AZ/MEXICAN BORDER THEN
EJECT INTO SWRN KS EARLY SUNDAY. AS A RESULT SFC LOW IS NOT
EXPECTED TO ADVANCE APPRECIABLY EWD UNTIL LATER MONDAY AS SECONDARY
MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX DEVELOPS FROM NORTH TX INTO THE LOWER OH RIVER
VALLEY.

MODERATE TO EXTREME INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP EAST OF THE DRYLINE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG ERN PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES. STRONGLY
DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ENCOURAGE VIGOROUS SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
FROM PORTIONS OF WCNTRL TX...NWD INTO KS. VERY LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE WILL MIX SUNDAY AS
LOWEST PRESSURES WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF WRN
KS. MODELS MIX DRYLINE EAST OF I-35 CORRIDOR ACROSS OK BY 18Z
SUNDAY BUT THE DAY5 FORECAST WILL ACCOUNT FOR DRYLINE NOT MIXING
ACROSS THE PLAINS AS FAST AS MODELS CURRENTLY DEPICT. AS A
RESULT...SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE
MOIST/BUOYANT WARM SECTOR AND ANOTHER DIURNALLY-INITIATED ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS COULD EVOLVE.

LATER MONDAY IT APPEARS THE SFC FRONT/DRYLINE SHOULD ADVANCE INTO
THE MS VALLEY. SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS SHOULD EVOLVE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FROM LA...NWD INTO MO AND POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS MIDDLE
TN. TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH WARM-SECTOR
From CWG
The polar vortex, for all the suffering it caused this winter, has brought about a major societal benefit: record-setting low tornado activity.
Link
Good Morning all..

a little humor to start the morning..

Kingsford Spring Grilling Ad
Jack & 91S are gone. 92P are new.

AQUA pass of 92P..


MattRogers
6:18 AM EDT
Yesterday was 3F warmer than normal at National with a high of 72F. This holds the monthly anomaly at 1.9F. The final eight days of April are expected to average about 1.5 to 2F cooler than normal, which should pull April very close to the 30-year normal when we finish the month. May still looks to start off seasonal to cooler than normal, with recent guidance trends favoring our slow spring to mostly continue.

Precipitation was only .03"(!), so our deficit is now down to -0.2" for the month. While we have more rain chances on Friday, the bigger threat looks to be next Tue-Wed for a last minute April precipitation deficit offset.


I'm glad this year spring is spring and not summer (I'm looking at you 2010,2011,and 2012).
Quoting 351. StormTrackerScott:

Now this is weird ESPI went from plus .85 yesterday to minus .11 today and the SOI went plus 19.5 on the daily average. I wonder why with the MJO coming across?

ESPI is .87 today..
Quoting 361. Skyepony:

ESPI is .87 today..


Thanks Skye, it was weird because I pulled up this same site and it said -.11 earlier.
Quoting 328. trunkmonkey:

I'm a bird lover, as of today, many of the birds in Indiana cannot build nest because there is isn't any foliage to protect them.
Result of Global cooling!
Good morning T.M. It certainly was a cold winter, and is a chilly early spring for much of the U.S...Been quite warm for other parts of the Northern Hemisphere tho.
Storms today appear to be fast movers,,
Pattern at 200mb doesn't project extreme divergence aloft.



Low Level shear profiles are ridiculous.




The threat outlined for day 6 across the mississippi valley may never need to be extended east. the new GFS digs this into the gulf fairly rapidly as a cutoff

Threat is very real around the lower mississippi river valley...850mb LLF is oriented perfectly and restrengthens with time across arkansas/mississippi





The wheels fall of the system rapidly after this though, and the LLJ becomes oriented from the SW, leading more to a unidirectional pattern.

One caveat is in the long range, a new weaker LLJ sets up across AL/GA and could foster more storms near a weak 100mb surface low. However by this time the warm sector is severely shunted by the gulf low and shear profiles are not extreme, but certainly capable of activity across the central/ southern gulf coast states

00z gave my area a much better chance than did the 6z gfs. long way out so im still watching
I see some folks are still debating/splitting hairs on El Nino issues.  Considering the fact that it appears to be coming, and the fact that we will not know how strong/weak it will become for a few months, the more pressing short-term issue is the potential for severe weather this weekend.

Pretty ominous language from the preliminary SPC discussions.  Not surprising considering what the models are showing and how inactive tornado season has been so far.  They need to get the public's attention for this potential event because I am thinking that some folks in the mid-west might be a little complacent due to such a quiet April thus far.

As noted by a post below, the polar vortex issue kept this type of weather at bay for the last eight weeks; I am hoping that this delay will not result in an overactive late-April and May.
Landslide in Italy on Wednesday, 23 April, 2014 at 03:31 (03:31 AM) UTC.
Description
A series of landslides over the past few days have disrupted traffic near Courmayeur, a renowned tourist resort in the Italian Alps, forcing temporarily closure of Mont Blanc tunnel, local reports said Tuesday. Around 20,000 cubic meters of mud and rock fell Monday night, while another estimated 400,000 cubic meters of earth were on the move triggered by rising temperatures. Local authorities reportedly closed Mont Blanc tunnel, which links Italy and France, for about two hours as a result of the crashing rocks. Meanwhile dozens of citizens had to temporarily leave their homes while protection teams and volunteers were at work to clean roads and shore up protective barriers against further landslides.


Quoting 362. StormTrackerScott:



Thanks Skye, it was weird because I pulled up this same site and it said -.11 earlier.

I've never seen it move that fast, I had to double check..
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 368. Skyepony:
Landslide in Italy on Wednesday, 23 April, 2014 at 03:31 (03:31 AM) UTC.
Description
A series of landslides over the past few days have disrupted traffic near Courmayeur, a renowned tourist resort in the Italian Alps, forcing temporarily closure of Mont Blanc tunnel, local reports said Tuesday. Around 20,000 cubic meters of mud and rock fell Monday night, while another estimated 400,000 cubic meters of earth were on the move triggered by rising temperatures. Local authorities reportedly closed Mont Blanc tunnel, which links Italy and France, for about two hours as a result of the crashing rocks. Meanwhile dozens of citizens had to temporarily leave their homes while protection teams and volunteers were at work to clean roads and shore up protective barriers against further landslides.



I've never seen it move that fast, I had to double check..


Well that's what I tought as I saw .85 yesterday. It looks like my computer some how saved that image showing -.11 from February but then showed ir under April 23rd. I swear my work computer does strange things at time. Google chrome is what I have here
This collection of photos is spectacular. I adore this portion of Wunderground.com - the photos! You guys rock for creating a place for all of us to share photos, share weather, and a place to learn and lurk ;)
Mike in Traverse City, Michigan (snow is almost gone!)
Quoting 175. DoctorDave1:

Sea Ice Update April 20 2014 – Global Sea Ice 1.05 million sq. km Above Normal

https://twitter.com/PatriotPost/status/4585773215 83071234

And here is the data to prove it:

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/so uth/daily/data/

Really cannot have more ice than normal in a truly warming world. The world was warming 10-15 years ago, but the warming process has stopped.

The fact that you would say that indicates that you do not truly understand sea ice dynamics.

Perhaps when you have a concern or question in this area, you should ask someone who does?
Quoting 371. UnobtrusiveTroll10:

This collection of photos is spectacular. I adore this portion of Wunderground.com - the photos! You guys rock for creating a place for all of us to share photos, share weather, and a place to learn and lurk ;)
Mike in Traverse City, Michigan (snow is almost gone!)
morning mike there is a chill to the air this morning no snow here in south central Ontario last week of april may is almost here
Quoting 352. washingtonian115:

Personally I don't care to see or want to see a super el nino in my life time again.It sucked and our snow was rain for the winter (Like the winter of 2012).I remember for the winter of 97-98 I wore a light jacket most of the time like I did in 2012.After a awesome winter like What we've just had (D.C saw it's first snow flakes the day before thanksgiving and (for now) our last flakes last Tuesday with awesome snow storms in between).I don't want a sucky winter.



Winter 1997-98 was great for me since I was exhausted with infant twins and I only had to shuttle my citrus into the garage a few times. I did not wear a winter coat the entire DJF season but an arctic outbreak in March, the only one of the winter, forced me to prudently use it.

Winter 2011-2012 was the first winter I did not use a winter coat, just a jacket and sweater layer. Winter 2012-2013 repeated this.

But winter 2013-2014 forced me to get my winter coat out of storage and I pretty much needed it most of the winter.