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UFOs, Human Frequencies in Radar Data, and Other Emails From Responsible Persons

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:34 PM GMT on April 21, 2014

It's a bit of a slow weather day, so I thought I'd share with you today a few of the more interesting inquiries I've gotten during my 20 years working with Weather Underground. I responded to all of the emails, but not the phone calls. Enjoy!

Jeff Masters


Notes from a phone message taken by my business partner, Jeff Ferguson on May 3, 2002:
It turns out that there is a person in Texas who uses our Nexrad radar imagery to locate people. He can pick up their frequencies from the Nexrad imagery. It turns out that human frequencies are embedded in each image. He would not explain to me how he picks up these frequencies, since it is a proprietary process, invented by him.

Notes from two phone messages received by my business partner, Jeff Ferguson, on June 8, 2001:
D.H. called. He has information on a technology which controls the weather. He is only interested in talking to people he can trust. I assured him that you were trustworthy, and you are the most qualified person in our company to discuss his ideas. He has gone broke developing his ideas, so he hopes you can call him quickly, since he does not pay his phone bill and they will be shutting it off soon. No, he doesn't trust e-mail. He has contacted other companies, but they do not seem to have people he can trust with this information.

Email from March 6, 1998:
"I am writting, because my mother was talking to my grandmother who lives in the Torch Lake vacinity, and she was looking outside, and she noticed that there was a object in the sky, that kept moving around, and changing color, I am not kidding, I was just wondering if you happened to see this odd object.......I live in Northport Michigan, and I can see this object, it keeps fading in and out, and when it fades back into a visible focas, it is always in a different spot, then before, and it also has 3 colors, white, then red, then blue, I am not going to assume, that it is a UFO, but who knows. I hope that you take this seriously, and would like to hear from you as soon as possible........I am looking at it from the east, and I live near the lake."

Email from February 16, 1998:
"I,M A VERY RESPONSIBLE PERSON. SINCE I WAS A LITTER BOY I BEEN LOOKING AND STUDYNG THE SUN. ON FEB,1996 ONE MORNING I WAS LOOKING AT THE SKY AND WHAT I SAW THE SUN ACTING UP. I SAW BIG EXPLOSION AND SOMETHING LIKE LAVA RUNNING DOWN....I SAW LOT OF FIRE YELLOW,ORANGE AND A PURPLE RING AROUND THE SUN. THE EXPLOSIONS STILL GOING TODAY.ON OCTOBER 10,1997 I SEND A LETTER TO THE PRESIDENT BILL CLINTON? WHY TO BILL? BECAUSE RUN ALL GOVERMENT DEPARMENT. IN THE LETTER WAS A WARNING OF WHAT I SAW AND WAS COMING. IN LETTER I EXLPAIN TO BILL THAT THE GOVERMENT SHOULD ORDER THE CLEANING OF ALL RIVER AND TO PLACE LEVIS ON ALL RIVERBANKS IN U.S. I ALSO IN THE LETTER I EXPLAIN TO BILL ABOUT THE BAD WEATHER COMING TO CALIFORNIA. A LOT OF RAIN AND HIGH WIND,COLORADO LOT OF SNOW. TEXAS LOT OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE EAST THE BEST WEATHER IN YEARS,I EXPLAIN TO BILL THAT HE HAS TO ORDER THE ALL LUMBER COMPANYS TO STOP CUTTING ALL TREE. EL NINO IS NOTHING MORE THAN A HEAT WAVE OF EXTRA HEAT COMING OUT THE SUN DO TO THE EXPLOSIONS INSIDE THE SUN THE BAD WEATHER WE ARE HAVING IS HERE TO STAY FOR A LONG TIME THINGS ARE GIONG TO GET WORSE AND WE CAN DO ANYTHING ABOUT......I SEND A LETTER TO NASA AND I STYLL WAYTING FOR A RESPONSE…"

Email from April 20, 1999:
"Say, I've got a question. I read in the Weekly World News that the winter of 1999 would be an "Icy Hell," including sustained temperatures below 0 degrees for the great lakes region lasting weeks and weeks, most likely a result of God's warning of Jesus' Second Coming. Clearly this was not the weather pattern we experienced in January, February, and not even in March. However, it is still wholly conceivable that we may be seeing an Icy Hell in what remains in April, or even early May. Is this something I should worry about? Should I be stockpiling the crops that are going to be damaged in sums in the billions? Should I seek higher ground lest a second Ice Age cover me in thousands of feet of glacier? Clearly you can see how this is a grave concern of mine."

Email received October 17, 2002:

"Hello! I don't know if this is the right place to turn to, but it is worth a try! On the night of October 14th, I was driving from California, to Utah. I don't remember exactly where I was, but I think it was 40 or so miles outside of Barstow. In the sky, we saw a bright light, with a green tint in the middle of it. Coming out of the light was a bright red wavy line, that looked almost like the trail of an airplane. It didn't move anywhere. In fact, we left before it did. (Whatever it was...) If you have ANY information as to what that strange light was, I would really appreciate it! I'm just glad that there were others with me, otherwise I would think I was going insane! Thank you! "

Email received April 22, 2006:

"Perhaps a planetary catastrophe originating from the Atlantic Ocean due to a medium size impact event. On this assumption, a series of giant waves, including one tsunami almost two hundred meters in height, will be born from a succession of underwater eruptions. These watery giants, decreasing with distance, will touch the majority of the Atlantic coasts; in particular, those most at risk lie between the equator and the tropic of Cancer. The victims of May 25 2006 will be tens of millions. The devastated survivors will be more numerous still. The economic losses will be enormous, well beyond the scales of destruction hitherto tested by our civilization. North America and Europe will not be saved, but will be affected in less dramatic proportions. By extension, other remote countries will be also affected. Please think twice before doing something else. You could save the life of thousands of people by warning them! Great respect to you!"

Humor

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

WOW. You sure get some interesting emails.

Maybe you could post your responses?
Ha-Hah'
I guarantee a few of those people who sent or left messages are regular bloggers today..LOL..great blog Dr. Masters..I am not surprise about those "inquiries"..
Not 1st!
Thank You Dr Masters
Thanks Dr. Masters!
Thanks Doc..Crazy stuff, but we did see a U.F.O on board ship in 1985, 550 miles off of New York. 3 crew saw it..We will never know what it was...It does get dark and strange out there.
Setbacks Aside, Climate Change Is Finding Its Way Into the World's Classrooms

By BETH GARDINERAPRIL 20, 2014

LONDON From Mauritius to Manitoba, climate change is slowly moving from the headlines to the classroom. Schools around the world are beginning to tackle the difficult issue of global warming, teaching students how the planet is changing and encouraging them to think about what they can do to help slow that process.

Strapped school budgets, concerns about overburdening teachers and political opposition to what in some places is a contentious subject have complicated the spread of lessons on climate change. Nonetheless, many nations are adding or expanding such offerings, convinced that young people must learn about a phenomenon likely to have a big impact on their lives.

Schools, advocates say, can play an important role in fighting climate change by teaching young people greener habits and creating a generation of voters who will back measures to cut carbon dioxide pollution.

To slow dangerous warming, we need an overall change of mind and a change of action that relates to everything that we think and do, said Alexander Leicht, of Unesco, the agency overseeing the United Nations Decade of Education for Sustainable Development, which ends this year.

We need every individual's understanding to do something about that, every individual's motivation,he said. How else do you reach them than through education?

Not everyone agrees, however, and in some places the question of how and whether to teach the subject is politically charged. Britain's education secretary has zigzagged, with changes that environmental advocates say will reduce climate's prominence in the national curriculum there.

In the United States, new science standards drawn up by 26 states and scientists and teachers groups call for introducing climate change to students in middle school and exploring it in greater detail in high school. That has stirred opposition in states like Wyoming, a coal and oil producer. Lawmakers there last month blocked funding for the standards, saying teaching climate change could hurt the local economy.

A lot of science teachers essentially say, This doesn't feel like a very safe topic to teach. The science is conceptually difficult, and it's controversial. I might get complaints from parents and it's not part of my current curriculum, and so I'm not going to take it on, said Charles Anderson, a professor of teacher education at Michigan State University, who advised on the new standards.

Still, in other countries the subject is less contentious. Irish schools, for example, cover climate change as part of a broad theme known as education for sustainable development, addressing social and environmental problems ranging from poverty to dwindling biodiversity.

While officials are only now formulating a national strategy, many schools have been offering such lessons for years, said Tony Gaynor, a curriculum and assessment officer at Ireland%u2019s Department of Education and Skills.

There's a lot going on out there, and there's an awful lot of enthusiasm and passion in the sector, he said.

The subject fits well with Ireland's effort to move away from rote learning and toward developing students analytic and critical thinking skills, he noted. Sustainable development is an area where there are complex issues that need to be teased out and challenged.

That comes with a much more participatory, democratic approach where students are identifying problems that need to be solved, and students are doing their own research on how to solve the problems, he said.


That is true, too, in island nations such as Cuba, Indonesia, Mauritius, and Trinidad and Tobago. As part of a Unesco effort called Sandwatch, students visit beaches to measure their width, analyze wave direction, collect water samples, assess wildlife and gather other data.

Getting children outdoors helps even the very young to appreciate nature, Mr. Leicht, of Unesco, said.

The challenge is not to make it too threatening, but to make kids understand the value of what is being lost if climate change continues, he said.

Encouraging young people to think about solutions is key to successfully discussing what can be an upsetting topic, said Annie Gregory, a program officer in Ahmedabad for India%u2019s Center for Environment Education.

You can't go to very young kids and show them the Arctic melting and all this doom and gloom, she said. With all the negativity and all the technical information, they can really get bogged down.

Instead, working with 200,000 schools, the government-backed center is using an approach suggested by a student, talking about the handprint of individuals beneficial actions, rather than the harm suggested by an environmental footprint.

Focusing on tangible actions, like repairing faucets to save water, is also important, said Ms. Gregory.

You say to the kids, Look there's a problem here, how do we fix it? Then you can use math, you can use language, you can use science, geography, you can use history, said Brid Conneely, international director for eco-schools at the Foundation for Environmental Education, an independent nonprofit in Copenhagen.

All Indian schools are required to offer environmental education, but many struggle to provide even basic skills and conveying the complexities of climate science can be difficult, said Sukhprit Kaur, a coordinator in Bangalore for the environment education center.

Such constraints exist in wealthier nations, too. In the United States, the new science recommendations follow a tough Common Core of English and math skills that many states are still straining to teach.

The number of students who will not get education on climate change because of the financial and lack of adequate curriculum and teacher training issues is much larger than the number who will not get education on climate change because somebody in the legislature opposes it, Mr. Anderson of Michigan State said.

Globally, teachers understand that the topic is very important, and they are eager to teach it, said Ingrid Jung, coordinator of an international sustainability education project at the German development agency GIZ.

Unesco has been involved in such efforts, assisting, for example, with a program intended to reach 67,000 teachers in Vietnam, and working on smaller training programs in nations including Brazil, Mongolia, Namibia, the Philippines and South Africa, Mr. Leicht said.

Some nations teach climate in science classes and others in geography, while others again integrate the idea of sustainability across a range of subjects. China has included sustainability education in its outline for school reform, and Japan has written it into curriculum guidelines, according to Unesco.

Sometimes, educators focus on making schools themselves more environmentally friendly, so pupils can experience life in an institution with a slimmed-down carbon footprint, said Thomas Hoffman, a secondary school teacher who also helps develop sustainability curricula in southwestern Germany.

Such initiatives may rile critics. In Britain, the Global Warming Policy Foundation, an organization of climate change skeptics, has accused schools of brainwashing students with political indoctrination similar to that in Mao Zedong's China.

The education system, subverted by a green political movement, now seeks conformity with environmentalist orthodoxy,the foundation warned in a report this month. Politicians, it said, are effectively handing much of the curriculum to green activists.

Britain's education secretary, Michael Gove, partly reversed course last year after scaling back coverage of climate change in a draft version of a national curriculum taking effect in September. Still, the amended version would give less emphasis to the subject than the current curriculum, frustrating advocates like Esha Marwaha, a 17-year-old Londoner whose online petition urging a strong climate emphasis drew 31,000 signatures.

For me education has been something that%u2019s opened my eyes completely to everything around me, she said. Of her climate activism, she added: I wouldn't have done it had it not been for my classroom experiences.
Any models showing that "tropical anticyclone" forming still?


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Thanks Doc for the diversion!
Some of the comments on the blog sometimes are on par with what you write about above.

I think the more people get to know about things, the more their minds speculate on what might be going on, after all there is too much to explain and very few explainers.
The victims of May 25 2006 will be tens of millions. The devastated survivors will be more numerous still.


boy do I remember that date...i was one of those victims
Quoting 9. Haiyan2013:

Any models showing that "tropical anticyclone" forming still?
I'm not sure but the GFS showed that Carib system again.
Thank you Dr. Masters... I swear my ex was an alien, but that's another story...
15. JRRP
That is very funny Doctor and thank you.........................This could have been posted earlier on April Fools Day.

Now here is one for you:

The Weather Underground Organization (WUO), commonly known as  the Weather Underground, was an American radical left organization founded on the Ann Arbor campus of the University of Michigan. Originally called Weatherman, the group became known colloquially as the Weathermen. Weatherman organized in 1969 as a faction of Students for a Democratic Society (SDS)[2] composed for the most part of the national office leadership of SDS and their supporters. Their goal was to create a clandestine revolutionary party for the overthrow of the US government.[3]

Since you are from Michigan Sir, is this site the weather arm of WUO for purposes of planning the best weather for the assault on DC?

Thank You.
The Cash-Landrum Incident was a reported Unidentified Flying Object sighting from the United States in 1980, which witnesses insist was responsible for damage to their health. It is one of very few UFO cases to result in civil court proceedings.

It can be classified as a Close Encounter of the Second Kind, due to its reported physical effects on the witnesses and their automobile.

Skeptic Peter Brookesmith wrote: "To ufologists, the case is perhaps the most baffling and frustrating of modern times, for what started with solid evidence for a notoriously elusive phenomenon petered out in a maze of dead ends, denials, and perhaps even official deviousness.

Incident

On the evening of December 29, 1980, Betty Cash, Vickie Landrum and Colby Landrum (Vickie's seven-year-old grandson) were driving home to Dayton, Texas in Cash's Oldsmobile Cutlass after dining out.

At about 9.00 p.m., while driving on an isolated two-lane road in dense woods, the witnesses said they observed a light above some trees. They initially thought the light was an airplane approaching Houston Intercontinental Airport (about 35 miles away) and gave it little notice.

A few minutes later on the winding roads, the witnesses saw what they believed to be the same light as before, but it was now much closer and very bright. The light, they claimed, came from a huge diamond-shaped object, which hovered at about treetop level. The object's base was expelling flame and emitting significant heat.

Vickie Landrum told Cash to stop the car, fearing they would be burned if they approached any closer. However, Vickie's opinion of the object quickly changed: a born again Christian, she interpreted the object as a sign of the second coming of Jesus Christ, telling her grandson, "That's Jesus. He will not hurt us." (Clark, 175)

Anxious, Cash considered turning the car around, but abandoned this idea because the road was too narrow and she presumed the car would get stuck on the dirt shoulders, which were soft from that evening's rains.

Cash and Landrum got out of the car to examine the object. Colby was terrified, however, and Vickie Landrum quickly returned to the car to comfort the frantic child. Cash remained outside the car, "mesmerized by the bizarre sight," as Jerome Clark wrote. (Clark, 175) He went on, The object, intensely bright and a dull metallic silver, was shaped like a huge upright diamond, about the size of the Dayton water tower, with its top and bottom cut off so that they were flat rather than pointed. Small blue lights ringed the center, and periodically over the next few minutes flames shot out of the bottom, flaring outward, creating the effect of a large cone. Every time the fire dissipated, the UFO floated a few feet downwards toward the road. But when the flames blasted out again, the object rose about the same distance."




O Lordy,..
Quoting 3. ncstorm:
I guarantee a few of those people who sent or left messages are regular bloggers today..LOL..great blog Dr. Masters..I am not surprise about those "inquiries"..


Ricderr, Patrap, and Nea. Seems right to me.
Quoting 13. Climate175:

I'm not sure but the GFS showed that Carib system again.
If the Atlantic is dead I will talk about the North Indian and the East Pac.
Their goal was to create a clandestine revolutionary party for the overthrow of the US government

Isnt that the GOP's "Tea Party" we hear so lil about these daze?
Ricderr, Patrap, and Nea. Seems right to me.


i don't know scott....5/22/2006 was hyped...right up your alley....ta da da boom!
Quoting 13. Climate175:
I'm not sure but the GFS showed that Carib system again.


I think its just convective feedback from the MJO being in the area at that time. GFS does this everytime when the MJO is in the area in May only to ruin peoples hopes of a tropical system. Bottomline I will wait once the GFS can show that with in 7 days of actually happening and even that is no GTY.


Quoting 16. weathermanwannabe:

That is very funny Doctor and thank you.........................This could have been posted earlier on April Fools Day.

Now here is one for you:

The Weather Underground Organization (WUO), commonly known as
the Weather Underground, was an American radical left organization founded on the Ann Arbor
campus of the University of Michigan. Originally
called Weatherman, the group became known colloquially as the
Weathermen
. Weatherman organized in 1969 as a faction of Students for
a Democratic Society
(SDS)[2] composed
for the most part of the national office leadership of SDS and their supporters.
Their goal was to create a clandestine revolutionary party for the overthrow of
the US
government
.[3]


Since you are from Michigan Sir, is this site the weather arm of WUO for purposes of planning the best weather for the assault on DC?

Thank You.



The term was coined to be the site name as a tongue in cheek poke at the organization you mention.

Dr. Masters covers that early in his many talks and presentations.

He also mentions in retrospect that it wasn't the best idea, but the success has proven that to be a myth in my view.,,easily.
82 or higher
Quoting 23. StormTrackerScott:



I think its just convective feedback from the MJO being in the area at that time.


Hmm.....
Those types of illiterate, nonsensical, often wack-a-doo comments are funny--but they're also completely familiar to anyone who's spent more than a few minutes looking around the comments section of climate change denialist sites like Goddard's and Watts'.
I am feeling it again.
Quoting 28. Climate175:
Majority of May storms form where the GFS is forming that storm.


My point is don't get your hopes up as the GFS does this every year.
If you want to see a nasty active troll, head over to Dr. Ricky Roods entry. We gotz a live un on da Hook over dere'

: )

My point is don't get your hopes up as the GFS does this every year.


i had my hopes up the florida peninsula was gonna have severe weather on saturday :-)
Lol, thanks Dr. Masters. It's Marathon Monday up here, and what a nice day for it. Right around 60F now, great for the runners!
Quoting 19. StormTrackerScott:



Ricderr, Patrap, and Nea. Seems right to me.


LOL..Scott you a baddddd man!!
Jus because Dr. Masters posted a Humor entry, you Fla. & N.Carolina doom caster's can still continue yer post by post, model frame by frame outlook on the doom-i-ness.

We used to it by now.
Lol, great stories Doc.

Most of the stories my mother gets to hear about turn out to be people mistaking either Venus or a plane for a UFO.

----

Saw a poll in the USA Today that said only 47% of adult Americans believe in evolution. That's embarrassing. Wonder what the percentage is in other countries, like Finland, who also apparently have better education systems?
Quoting 31. ricderr:
My point is don't get your hopes up as the GFS does this every year.


i had my hopes up the florida peninsula was gonna have severe weather on saturday :-)


It was definitly a bust here only .41 on Friday from a storm that came through during the evening. I saw that El-Paso got nailed Saturday. I have friends in Lubbock and they got in on the action as well over the weekend.

Pretty intense!
Link
Quoting 33. ncstorm:


LOL..Scott you a baddddd man!!


What's new right. Any sun by you yet. Going on day 2 with no sun here in Orlando. High was supposed to be 82 and were only at 66.
Thanks for the new Post Dr.Masters. I think some of those folks post on this very Blog.
Scott..me tinks someone's feelings is hurt..or it might be the calamity talking..

I think someone should go have a Fresca..

Quoting 38. PedleyCA:

Thanks for the new Post Dr.Masters. I think some of those folks post on this very Blog.


you figure
Quoting 37. StormTrackerScott:



What's new right. Any sun by you yet. Going on day 2 with no sun here in Orlando. High was supposed to be 82 and were only at 66.


no doom and gloom here Scott..very pretty today finally with a high of 72 forecasted..

Quoting 39. ncstorm:
Scott..me tinks someone's feelings is hurt..or it might be the calamity talking..

I think someone should go have a Fresca..



We all get ribbed so he can take a joke as well. The saying goes old people can give out jokes but can't accept them back.

Good morning all. The WU redesign looks nice and I really like the user interface on the PWS pages. Here in the Austin area, conditions are warm and muggy with dew points around 70. Hopefully we can squeeze a few drops of rain out later this afternoon and any capping is held back.
This blog has the history of going downhill, i better watch myself.
Personal attacks, bickering, flaming, and general trollish behavior will not be tolerated.
thanks for lunch time read doc
at first I thought this was a joke then I realized he actually rec'd these.

Quoting 42. StormTrackerScott:



We all get ribbed so he can take a joke as well. The saying goes old people can give out jokes but can't accept them back.




well my grandfather could take and dish them out..miss him dearly..

however he wasn't on a computer 24/7 either so that might have something to do with it..


Personal attacks, bickering, flaming, and general trollish behavior will not be tolerated.
I just quoted myself, dang it..., now watch someone attack me just because of that.... ahem. I bet some of you assume that we are on a computer and typing mistakes can happen, and we all have been to school i hope.. So please do not take these things so seriously i mean you never know what will be the deal in Aug or Sept, so i would mind you watch yourself.
If you think my feelings ever get scrambled here, well..your on a ego trip with STS..

The infatuation is derpy strong.

LoL

: P

Robert Plant Saturday here, "Jazz Fest".

So I'll be dere, and you'll be here.
Quoting 48. ncstorm:


well my grandfather could take and dish them out..miss him dearly..

however he wasn't on a computer 24/7 either so that might have something to do with it..



Computer does have a big role in it for sure. Apparently there is a troll lose on Ricky's blog. Not looking good over there for sure for whoever this person is.
Quoting 51. Patrap:
If you think my feelings ever get scrambled here, well..your on a ego trip.

The infatuation is derpy strong.

LoL

: P


My ego is bigger than your Pat. Again J/K with you.
Quoting 10. Patrap:



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what?...that's awesome
The person who emailed on April 20, 1999 was only off by 15 years in her icy hell prediction. Still not sure about the ice age though, will just have to wait and see, probably a very, very long time. ;)
Quoting 52. StormTrackerScott:



Computer does have a big role in it for sure. Apparently there is a troll lose on Ricky's blog. Not looking good over there for sure for whoever this person is.


He has left the Rood Building, "Permanently"
Quoting 7. hydrus:

Thanks Doc..Crazy stuff, but we did see a U.F.O on board ship in 1985, 550 miles off of New York. 3 crew saw it..We will never know what it was...It does get dark and strange out there.

I saw a "UFO", too. It turned out to be a flock of birds. Our brains and eyes can pull all sorts of neat tricks on us in low-light and unusual circumstances.

But for fifteen minutes or so, I was personally offended that I had seen a UFO. lol
I see that "infatuation" claim has come back up again..LMAO..

as I have said before..noooooooooooooo thanks!..LOL..

I have to get back to work..go argue over at Roods blog..
Quoting 56. Patrap:


He has left the Rood Building, "Permanently"


Good deal.
Does anybody remember having any conflicts with that troll Superstorm, i remember people kept ignoring and quoting him many times and this was when i just read the blog and comments but was not a member yet.
Quoting 27. Neapolitan:

Those types of illiterate, nonsensical, often wack-a-doo comments are funny--but they're also completely familiar to anyone who's spent more than a few minutes looking around the comments section of climate change denialist sites like Goddard's and Watts'.


You should try Godlikeproductions or even worse NWD. Those are some true crazies...
Does anybody remember having any conflicts with that troll Superstorm




been so many i lose track......
Looking like Tornado Alley may live up to it's name finally next week.

Something to keep an eye on as we inch towards the start of the E-Pac season on May 15th:




The E-Pac ITCZ is currently firing around the 7-N mark; will be inching closer to the 10-N mark in about 3-4 weeks when the coreolis effect will start to take effect on these healthy disturbances in the late-May early-June time period.
Santana Fri too, wish could be there Pat. Will have to settle for morel and turkey hunts.

Rain starting to show up in C IL, just not here yet, though a few dots appear to be close. Looks like Spfld getting a good dousing though.
I shop on Amazon dearly...But I'll continue to donate to my trusted source the red cross.Thanks anyway for the heads up though.
Lots of warming beginning to occur along the South America Pacifc Coast.

You should try Godlikeproductions or even worse NWD. Those are some true crazies...


you aint kidding

April 17, 2014 – Will the U.S. Pacific Northwest be Devastated by Earthquake and Tsunami Next Week: Another disaster scenario that could abolish Vancouver, Seattle and Portland? The top map shows the planet astro map lines as they progress across the globe. Astro lines that could make it difficult for the Northwest: Pluto on the MC, Sun ASC and the North Node (fate) DSC lines. This could be the big 9.1+ event due for the region. The last mega-quake and tsunami was in 1700. This region is overdue for “the big One.”

The second astro map shows the same time period only different planetary lines. Mars and Zeus on the MC cut right through The San Andreas fault. Los Angeles is already nervous after the small quake in Brae and a larger one in Northern California. These and other planetary aspects and map lines mean a large 9.1+ event could occur next week. (Credits – Solar Fire Gold v8 and Excel Spread Sheets 2010).
Quoting 57. Birthmark:


I saw a "UFO", too. It turned out to be a flock of birds. Our brains and eyes can pull all sorts of neat tricks on us in low-light and unusual circumstances.

But for fifteen minutes or so, I was personally offended that I had seen a UFO. lol
This was at night and with flat calm conditions...A rather rare event that far out and north.
24 days until the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season
41 days until the Atlantic Hurricane Season
Quoting Climate175:
Does anybody remember having any conflicts with that troll Superstorm, i remember people kept ignoring and quoting him many times and this was when i just read the blog and comments but was not a member yet.


Yes, that troll kept saying that the season was going to be quiet, but never offered any reasoning as to why. And then, when the season did indeed turn out to be quiet, the troll went around shoving it into everyone's faces...why Mother Nature had to be kind to this one troll is beyond me. So glad that troll is gone...was annoying to bear even for the bloggers who had predicted quiet seasons for the fun of it.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Looking like Tornado Alley may live up to it's name finally next week.



Interesting, 7 days out. Hard for them to get a 12 hour forecast correct these days. Lets check again on Saturday.
From Eric Blake

@EricBlake12 1h
Latest WWB is the strongest of the year- should squash any sig upwelling KW and favors a strong Nino later this yr

On the UFO issue, I have never seen one but avidly read all the books and watched the TV shows when I was younger.  I don't take a position on the issue but discount almost all nighttime reports/videos/pictures involving "lights" at a distance.  I don't believe that any alien crafts visiting the earth are going to conform to FAA regulations in terms of lighting and don't want to attract attention to themselves so I chalk those reports to earthy crafts both civilian and military.  A lot of the rest of the pics and vids we see look like fakes or photo-shopped images.

I can't speak to any of the other more documented/seen reports from recent history like the Phoenix Lights; I believe it may have been a test flight of some type of military stealth zepplen that went off course based on the eyewitness reports of a large silent triangle with lights on the leading edges that passed over them.
Thanks Jeff. It takes all kinds...
Quoting 71. hydrus:

This was at night and with flat calm conditions...A rather rare event that far out and north.

Oh, I wasn't trying to argue with you. I couldn't possibly know what you saw.

I was just pointing out that sometimes I'm not sure what I see. :)
I posted it pretty late last night, so here is my 2014 Atlantic hurricane season outlook for those that missed it and are interested.

Link
Quoting 78. weathermanwannabe:

On the UFO issue, I have never seen one but avidly read all the books and watched the TV shows when I was younger.  I don't take a position on the issue but discount almost all nighttime reports/videos/pictures involving "lights" at a distance.  I don't believe that any alien crafts visiting the earth are going to conform to FAA regulations in terms of lighting and don't want to attract attention to themselves so I chalk those reports to earthy crafts both civilian and military.  A lot of the rest of the pics and vids we see look like fakes or photo-shopped images.

I can't speak to any of the other more documented/seen reports from recent history like the Phoenix Lights; I believe it may have been a test flight of some type of military stealth zepplen that went off course based on the eyewitness reports of a large silent triangle with lights on the leading edges that passed over them.



I love all those UFO shows that have been on lately. H2 and Science Channel have been running a few. Close Encounters or something? There was one episode the other night that I started dozing off too and let me tell you, its not something you want to be waking up half asleep to. Really messes with your head :)

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Quoting 51. Patrap:

If you think my feelings ever get scrambled here, well..your on a ego trip with STS..

The infatuation is derpy strong.

LoL

: P

Robert Plant Saturday here, "Jazz Fest".

So I'll be dere, and you'll be here.
Oh yea....He's got a whole lotta love...
However, a friend of my Father, whose son was an Air Force Pilot in the 60's - 70's, told us over dinner in the 70's that his son relayed to him that he was doing photo-recon training near the Bahamas (in an RF-4 Phantom) and that he had a UFO encounter and believed that he shot camera footage of the craft.  Base intelligence supposedly met him at the tarmac upon landing, they unloaded the film, then debriefed him for several hours and that was the last that he heard about it........................That is is close as I have gotten to the conspiracy........................................ ... :)
Quoting 27. Neapolitan:

Those types of illiterate, nonsensical, often wack-a-doo comments are funny--but they're also completely familiar to anyone who's spent more than a few minutes looking around the comments section of climate change denialist sites like Goddard's and Watts'.
Wack-a-doos...Sounds better than your ice cream Neo...Still love it though
Quoting 57. Birthmark:

I saw a "UFO", too. It turned out to be a flock of birds. Our brains and eyes can pull all sorts of neat tricks on us in low-light and unusual circumstances.

But for fifteen minutes or so, I was personally offended that I had seen a UFO. lol


OK maybe someone here can take a stab at explaining what I saw once. I have yet to find a logical explanation.

When I was leaving Tampa for the last time, moving out here to the West Coast, as I was driving north on I-75 between Tampa and Ocala, a bizarre thing happened. A bright object, which from my perspective was moving about as fast as a meteor(in fact I thought it was a meteor initially) started moving down towards the horizon. Then, it slowed down, reversed course, and disappeared up into the dark sky from whence it came.

I'm sure there's an explanation, but to this day, I have no idea what it was that I saw. Anyone care to offer a theory?
Quoting 91. TimSoCal:


OK maybe someone here can take a stab at explaining what I saw once. I have yet to find a logical explanation.

When I was leaving Tampa for the last time, moving out here to the West Coast, as I was driving north on I-75 between Tampa and Ocala, a bizarre thing happened. A bright object, which from my perspective was moving about as fast as a meteor(in fact I thought it was a meteor initially) started moving down towards the horizon. Then, it slowed down, reversed course, and disappeared up into the dark sky from whence it came.

I'm sure there's an explanation, but to this day, I have no idea what it was that I saw. Anyone care to offer a theory?


AGW.....everything else is blammed with it......
STILL I WAIT FOR YOU RESPONSE TO MY LETTER? HELLO?
Quoting 91. TimSoCal:



OK maybe someone here can take a stab at explaining what I saw once. I have yet to find a logical explanation.

When I was leaving Tampa for the last time, moving out here to the West Coast, as I was driving north on I-75 between Tampa and Ocala, a bizarre thing happened. A bright object, which from my perspective was moving about as fast as a meteor(in fact I thought it was a meteor initially) started moving down towards the horizon. Then, it slowed down, reversed course, and disappeared up into the dark sky from whence it came.

I'm sure there's an explanation, but to this day, I have no idea what it was that I saw. Anyone care to offer a theory?Tim...That was my ex lighting up a giant joint...He drives pretty erratically at those times...And PRETTY brights light also...

Quoting 82. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Are you testing your new Avatar Keep....
well, I didn't know it was 122 degrees in Denver at some point today. and today is a slow weather day, eh Dr Masters? eh? eh?
91.Tim
1:16 PM EDT on April 21, 2014


A 747 diving down (towards the horizon) to join the landing flight pattern for Orlando International, that turned around in the circle going in the opposite direction, then lights out (to you) as the tail turned towards your viewing location................That is my best guess.................... :)
well, I didn't know it was 122 degrees in Denver


122 degrees?......wow...and who said legalizing pot wasn't gonna affect the locals too much?
Quoting 98. ricderr:

well, I didn't know it was 122 degrees in Denver


122 degrees?......wow...and who said legalizing pot wasn't gonna affect the locals too much?
no doubt, that is one HIGH temperature
no doubt, that is one HIGH temperature



ta da da boom
Quoting 65. StormTrackerScott:

Looking like Tornado Alley may live up to it's name finally next week.




Trough may be too negatively-tilted for a tornado outbreak on that run. We'll see... it could change.
FLSJAX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1142 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA..

SANTA FE RIVER AT FORT WHITE AFFECTING ALACHUA...COLUMBIA AND
GILCHRIST COUNTIES

SANTA FE RIVER AT THREE RIVERS ESTATES AFFECTING COLUMBIA...
ILCHRIST AND SUWANNEE COUNTIES

SANTA FE RIVER AT HILDRETH ON U.S. 129 BRIDGE AFFECTING GILCHRIST
AND SUWANNEE COUNTIES

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL PERSONS WITH INTEREST ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. IF YOU
SEE FLOOD WATERS...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND AND DO NOT DROWN.

FOR GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION...PLEASE GO TO WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON YOUR STATE. SELECT RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS UNDER CURRENT
CONDITIONS. THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE PAGE PROVIDES
CURRENT AND FORECAST RIVER INFORMATION...GAGE LOCATIONS...IMPACTS...
AND HISTORICAL CREST INFORMATION FOR ALL FORECAST POINTS BY CLICKING
ON EACH POINT.

&&
Anyone have a good link for an animation of the European model runs?
a report on global cooling,abc news.............................................. .......................................Link
In the dark, wee hours of morning one winter, I saw a UFO hovering over Maui. There'd been a storm and electricity was out all over the island. Driving from West Maui to Wailuku, I had just come off the Pali, and as I approached the intersection that would take me into Wailuku, there was the UFO, hovering, not right over me but not far away and more toward the middle of the island. Also in my view another vehicle or two or three moved along the highway I would not be taking. My route, dark as pitch.

The aircraft, way too big and the wrong shape to be a helicopter or other hoverable aircraft like a Harrier, was circular and lighted with bright white lights and some colors. Want to say bluish and yellowish colors. Possibly red and green but I am uncertain on that. In the darkness, the only way to tell it was round were the circles of light around it.

I remember thinking, "Oh God, just get me away before they notice I'm here." I made my turn onto the dark road to Wailuku and did not look back.

Ps. No drugs or alcohol involved. lol
Quoting 103. nola70119:

Anyone have a good link for an animation of the European model runs?


Here is two that are free but the good ones all cost ,

Experimental forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields

PSU interpetion of the Euro
Quoting 104. LargoFl:

a report on global cooling,abc news.............................................. .......................................Link


temperatures haven't risen in 15 years? hmm...

Link

you know what? if you look at it with your head tilted the right way, the trend shows global cooling.
Quoting yoboi:


AGW.....everything else is blammed with it......
LOL
thurs showers may be more inland/east coast..otherwise great week ahead here................................
Quoting StormWx:


Interesting, 7 days out. Hard for them to get a 12 hour forecast correct these days. Lets check again on Saturday.
Models are not in agreement. Nevertheless, good chance that by Saturday any event will already be upon us.

Add: Today's Day 4-8 (Thursday-next week Monday) Convective Outlook.
Quoting 107. CuriousAboutClimate:



temperatures haven't risen in 15 years? hmm...

Link

you know what? if you look at it with your head tilted the right way, the trend shows global cooling.


That link doesn't prove that what they are saying is wrong. That map you are showing shows about 12 years of a "pause" in global temperatures. It's been debated here over and over and I prefer to stay out of it but what you showed does not show much of a change to me over the past decade.
Just spoke with a nice CS rep in Fargo ND, she said that the last of their snow melted in the 77 degree temp they had yesterday.. I asked if they had to turn on their air conditioning.. "YES!"
Quoting 111. SouthCentralTx:



That link doesn't prove that what they are saying is wrong. That map you are showing shows about 12 years of a "pause" in global temperatures. It's been debated here over and over and I prefer to stay out of it but what you showed does not show much of a change to me over the past decade.


"That link doesn't prove that what they are saying is wrong."

The link says temperatures haven't risen in 15 years. My plot shows the last 15 years and shows that temperatures have risen over that timeframe. So it pretty much proves the claim wrong. Does my link not show the last 15 years with a linear trend with a positive slope?


Quoting LargoFl:
a report on global cooling,abc news.............................................. .......................................Link


? I didn't see anything in that article about global cooling...
Quoting 114. Astrometeor:



? I didn't see anything in that article about global cooling...


Click on Largo's handle, then "January", as it will explain the er, thinking IM sure
and I couldn't even begin to think how someone could call it "global cooling"
Quoting TimSoCal:


OK maybe someone here can take a stab at explaining what I saw once. I have yet to find a logical explanation.

When I was leaving Tampa for the last time, moving out here to the West Coast, as I was driving north on I-75 between Tampa and Ocala, a bizarre thing happened. A bright object, which from my perspective was moving about as fast as a meteor(in fact I thought it was a meteor initially) started moving down towards the horizon. Then, it slowed down, reversed course, and disappeared up into the dark sky from whence it came.

I'm sure there's an explanation, but to this day, I have no idea what it was that I saw. Anyone care to offer a theory?
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
However, a friend of my Father, whose son was an Air Force Pilot in the 60's - 70's, told us over dinner in the 70's that his son relayed to him that he was doing photo-recon training near the Bahamas (in an RF-4 Phantom) and that he had a UFO encounter and believed that he shot camera footage of the craft.  Base intelligence supposedly met him at the tarmac upon landing, they unloaded the film, then debriefed him for several hours and that was the last that he heard about it........................That is is close as I have gotten to the conspiracy........................................ ... :)
Bahamas, Florida, Maui (my experience)... They seem to like tropical and subtropical climates.
Japan Air Lines flight 1628 incident


Japan Air Lines flight 1628 was a UFO incident that occurred on November 17, 1986 involving a Japanese Boeing 747 cargo aircraft. The aircraft was en route from Paris to Narita, Tokyo with a cargo of Beaujolais wine. On the Reykjavík to Anchorage section of the flight, at 5:11 PM over eastern Alaska, the crew first witnessed two unidentified objects to their left. These abruptly rose from below and closed in to escort their aircraft. Each had two rectangular arrays of what appeared to be glowing nozzles or thrusters, though their bodies remained obscured by darkness. When closest, the aircraft's cabin was lit up and the captain could feel their heat in his face. These two craft departed before a third, much larger disk-shaped object started trailing them, causing the pilots to request a change of course. Anchorage Air Traffic Control obliged and requested an oncoming United Airlines flight to confirm the unidentified traffic, but when it and a military craft sighted JAL 1628 at about 5:51 PM, no other craft could be distinguished.

The sighting of 50 minutes ended in the vicinity of Mt. McKinley





Quoting 105. Barefootontherocks:

In the dark, wee hours of morning one winter, I saw a UFO hovering over Maui. There'd been a storm and electricity was out all over the island. Driving from West Maui to Wailuku, I had just come off the Pali, and as I approached the intersection that would take me into Wailuku, there was the UFO, hovering, not right over me but not far away and more toward the middle of the island. Also in my view another vehicle or two or three moved along the highway I would not be taking. My route, dark as pitch.

The aircraft, way too big and the wrong shape to be a helicopter or other hoverable aircraft like a Harrier, was circular and lighted with bright white lights and some colors. Want to say bluish and yellowish colors. Possibly red and green but I am uncertain on that. In the darkness, the only way to tell it was round were the circles of light around it.

I remember thinking, "Oh God, just get me away before they notice I'm here." I made my turn onto the dark road to Wailuku and did not look back.

Ps. No drugs or alcohol involved. lol
Alcohol and drugs strictly forbidden on board ship, and they do not condone it on shore either..What year was this.?


A day later at FAA headquarters they briefed Vice Admiral Donald D. Engen, who watched the whole video of over half an hour, and asked them not to talk to anybody until they were given the OK, and to prepare an encompassing presentation of the data for a group of government officials the next day. The meeting was attended by representatives of the FBI, CIA and President Reagan's Scientific Study Team, among others. Upon completion of the presentation, all present were told that the incident was secret and that their meeting "never took place". According to Callahan, the officials considered the data to represent the first instance of recorded radar data on a UFO, and they took possession of all the presented data.John Callahan however managed to retain the original video, the pilot's report and the FAA's first report in his office. The forgotten target print-outs of the computer data were also rediscovered, from which all targets can be reproduced that were in the sky at the time.
16 year old boy stowaway survives -80F in the wheel well of a California to Hawaii flight. Had an argument with his family and decided to run away. Very lucky boy. Beats me how he wasn't frozen solid.

Guardian article
Quoting hydrus:
Alcohol and drugs strictly forbidden on board ship, and they do not condone it on shore either..What year was this.?
Well, I was not off a ship. I lived and worked in Maui County (edit) off and on. Maha'oi on the date.
Quoting 118. Patrap:

Japan Air Lines flight 1628 incident





maybe they were sipping on some of that wine
Quoting 124. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



maybe they were sipping on some of that wine


Right,...

But it be kinda hard to Blame the radar tags on that I would think.

: P

Quoting 113. CuriousAboutClimate:



"That link doesn't prove that what they are saying is wrong."

The link says temperatures haven't risen in 15 years. My plot shows the last 15 years and shows that temperatures have risen over that timeframe. So it pretty much proves the claim wrong. Does my link not show the last 15 years with a linear with a positive slope?





It also depends on the fact that you decided to cherry-pick the GISS temperature dataset, which appears rather suspect considering it is considerably warmer than objectively measured satellite temperatures & even HADCRUT 4, probably due to recent artificial upward temperature adjustments in the dataset



The theme remains the same, since the 1997-98 El Nino, temperature trends have flatlined, but they will increase again this year & next year, probably a top 5 warmest year on the way in possibly 2014 or 2015 for the Satellite era and for a period of time following that with this oncoming El Nino. This shouldn't be a surprise as global temps have done this in the past following big El Ninos (although the response may not be the same in the long-term) @ the ends of relative flatlines in global temps such as on the heels of the 1986-88 & 1991-92 El Ninos. The 1982-83 El Nino was overshadowed by the El Chichon volcano eruption.
O Lordy..

: )
Quoting 123. Barefootontherocks:

Well, I was not off a ship. I lived and worked in Maui County for many years. Maha'oi on the date.
LOL.!..My bad..I posted earlier on a UFO sighting we had in 1985 on board our ship..I did not mean to imply that you were at sea, I thought you saw my post...:)
Quoting 125. Patrap:



Right,...

But it be kinda hard to Blame the radar tags on that I would think.

: P




well whatever they are hope there friendly
Climate change just took a back seat....
Quoting 124. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


maybe they were sipping on some of that wine

Nah, they just flew over HAARP.
Quoting hydrus:
LOL.!..My bad..I posted earlier on a UFO sighting we had in 1985 on board our ship..I did not mean to imply that you were at sea, I thought you saw my post...:)
No I didn't see it. Let me go look.
Just a hunch, but this could be the beginning of something nasty...Next few days should pin it down..
Quoting 126. Webberweather53:



It also depends on the fact that you decided to cherry-pick the GISS temperature dataset, which appears rather suspect considering it is considerably warmer than objectively measured satellite temperatures & even HADCRUT 4, probably due to recent artificial upward temperature adjustments in the dataset



The theme remains the same, since the 1997-98 El Nino, temperature trends have flatlined, but they will increase again this year & next year, probably a top 5 warmest year on the way in possibly 2014 or 2015 for the Satellite era and for a period of time following that with this oncoming El Nino. This shouldn't be a surprise as global temps have done this in the past following big El Ninos (although the response may not be the same in the long-term) @ the ends of relative flatlines in global temps such as on the heels of the 1986-88 & 1991-92 El Ninos. The 1982-83 El Nino was overshadowed by the El Chichon volcano eruption.


Good afternoon Webberweather53, what are your thoughts on this up coming El-Nino as I have noted last night that significant warming is occurring now along the South America Pacific Coast? I think this is significant in my view as it appears that this Kelvin Wave might have finally made it to the South American coast and if indeed this is occurring do you think this El-Nino could be historic as it should be noted that all El-Nino's that have begun in May have been the strongest on record?

Also the latest CFSv2 forecast has El-Nino at 1.5C instead of 2C so what do you make of this latest development today? I was referred to as a fool for thinking this so I just wanted to hear your thoughts on this potentially historic El-Nino and the only reason I feel this way is we have never seen such a sub surface warm pool infact we are smashing 1997 with 1.60 at the end of March versus 1.11 at the end of March in 1997.

The Warming continues unabated as we continue to pour Giga-tonne's of Fossil Fuel burning products into the atmosphere.

400ppm CO2 and rising.





Quoting 129. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



well whatever they are hope there friendly
So do I..The one we saw was bad to the bone fast, and made no sound at all.
Quoting 126. Webberweather53:



It also depends on the fact that you decided to cherry-pick the GISS temperature dataset, which appears rather suspect considering it is considerably warmer than objectively measured satellite temperatures & even HADCRUT 4, probably due to recent artificial upward temperature adjustments in the dataset



The theme remains the same, since the 1997-98 El Nino, temperature trends have flatlined, but they will increase again this year & next year, probably a top 5 warmest year on the way in possibly 2014 or 2015 for the Satellite era and for a period of time following that with this oncoming El Nino. This shouldn't be a surprise as global temps have done this in the past following big El Ninos (although the response may not be the same in the long-term) @ the ends of relative flatlines in global temps such as on the heels of the 1986-88 & 1991-92 El Ninos. The 1982-83 El Nino was overshadowed by the El Chichon volcano eruption.


Sorry. but temperatures haven't 'flatlined'. Globally, 2010 was the warmest year on record, and 2005 the second warmest. Here are the average global decadal temperature anomalies, with respect to the 1951-80 average.

1981-90 0.20C
1991-00 0.32C
2001-10 0.55C

The figure for 2011-13 is 0.58C. It's a well known propagandist tactic, that if you keep on repeating the same lie, it becomes accepted as truth. But the people on here are way too smart for that one.

Link

I'm not going to lie, this might be my favorite blog update from Dr. Masters.

"I,M A VERY RESPONSIBLE PERSON."

Well, at least he was nice enough to alert us before hand.
Quoting 126. Webberweather53:



It also depends on the fact that you decided to cherry-pick the GISS temperature dataset, which appears rather suspect considering it is considerably warmer than objectively measured satellite temperatures & even HADCRUT 4, probably due to recent artificial upward temperature adjustments in the dataset




before I even read the rest of your post, I'd like you to explain what you mean when you say:

"objectively measured satellite temperatures"

are you under the impression that the satellite data are the gold standard, that they are without drawbacks and that adjustments have not been made to them?
Any intelligence that can travel interstellar Space would hardly posses the Human style of Violence and idiocy, as they would have evolved way past that I'm sure.

The Universe is a Big place and the nearest Star 4 years away at the Speed o Light.

Humans are my Main worry, they create enough Chaos from thought.

Everything you see within yer sight, or reach came from it.

Save for Nature.

Man is the one to worry about,...not any Alien Visitors

Ref: Post 91 on UFOs on I-75.

Before anyone can even give a good guess, we need the year, time of day (or night), were you looking left (west) or right (east) and about where you were on that route. Looking east you would see the warning/restricted airspace areas of the Cape. Looking west, is the W470 airspace over the GoM.

The most logical easy solution is a fighter jet in afterburner doing an energy gaining maneuver that we call a Low Yo-Yo. Basically, to accelerate in the fastest way, one needs to eliminate induced drag on the airplane which is caused by lift and light the AB (which makes LOTs of light at night). You eliminate lift by unloading the jet to zero gravity, which means you are descending like a brick at the speed of warp. Once the airspeed gets up to what you want, you do a gentle pull up with the AB still cooking and you start uphill toward your target at warp x 2! Its great fun and very visible from a long way off. The reason I asked for the year is that would help define what type of aircraft, etc.

As a combat pilot and Night Test Pilot, I have seen lots of things I can't easily explain, but that's another story on another slow weather day!
Quoting TimSoCal:


OK maybe someone here can take a stab at explaining what I saw once. I have yet to find a logical explanation.

When I was leaving Tampa for the last time, moving out here to the West Coast, as I was driving north on I-75 between Tampa and Ocala, a bizarre thing happened. A bright object, which from my perspective was moving about as fast as a meteor(in fact I thought it was a meteor initially) started moving down towards the horizon. Then, it slowed down, reversed course, and disappeared up into the dark sky from whence it came.

I'm sure there's an explanation, but to this day, I have no idea what it was that I saw. Anyone care to offer a theory?

Sounds like you saw the landing lights from an aircraft that was maybe 10 degrees off your direction. It probably made a turn to either get in a landing pattern or was on a final to an airport. Almost all commercial aircraft now turn on their landing lights (day or night) when they are below 6,000 feet above ground level to increase their visibility to other aircraft. As the plane turned away from you, the light would look like it just disappeared. Sounds like you may have been too far away from the aircraft to see the navigation lights after it made the turn. Some aircraft have incredibly bright landing lights, and lots of them. A 747, for example has 6 of them, and they are 5 million candlepower each. Some newer aircraft are now using LED lights, which give off more of a bluish white light than incandescents or halogens, further confusing people. I suspect that a combination of landing lights and navigation lights, especially in a dark and otherwise featureless sky, are responsible for more UFO reports than any other single cause...except for Venus, but that's another story. :-)
Quoting hydrus:
Just a hunch, but this could be the beginning of something nasty...Next few days should pin it down..


Depends on your definition of "nasty", hydrus. Nasty for me means rain showers with no severe t-storms. Or worse...sunny days with only a hot wind blowing. Yuck!

:)
Quoting 138. yonzabam:



Sorry. but temperatures haven't 'flatlined'. Globally, 2010 was the warmest year on record, and 2005 the second warmest. Here are the average global decadal temperature anomalies, with respect to the 1951-80 average.

1981-90 0.20C
1991-00 0.32C
2001-10 0.55C

The figure for 2011-13 is 0.58C. It's a well known propagandist tactic, that if you keep on repeating the same lie, it becomes accepted as truth. But the people on here are way too smart for that one.

Link




As I stated above in my post GISS dataset you are referring to is highly suspect & appears to be tampered with given it is the warmest of all temperature datasets including the objectively measured satellite temps from UAH & RSS, and is even warmer than HADCRUT 4. It is better not to cherry-pick one dataset like the GISS, but rather get a more general picture by looking @ all the available data @ hand & that shows no significant warming since the 1997-98 El Nino and this is consistent with the flatlining of the AMO that has been evident since the late 1990s, which in its own right tends to exaggerate global temps...

Quoting hydrus:
Thanks Doc..Crazy stuff, but we did see a U.F.O on board ship in 1985, 550 miles off of New York. 3 crew saw it..We will never know what it was...It does get dark and strange out there.
OKay. Yeah, on Maui, in the middle of the Pacific roughly 2500 miles from anywhere, during an island-wide power failure - kind of like being on a ship. lol Um, I don't really remember what year, hydrus. I remember the power failure occurred during the night before a Super Bowl when the Buffalo Bills played and lost. That narrows it some. lol Early 1990s.

Quoting Waltanater:
Not 1st!
LMAO. Thanks. You're funny sometimes, and I appreciate it.
Quoting 140. CuriousAboutClimate:



Of course each dataset has its drawbacks, but even for the simple fact @ how far it has diverged from satellite temps, and even Hadcrut 4, clearly something is amiss...
Good afternoon everybody!

The last few Euro runs have been showing potential for a substantial, and perhaps multi day severe weather event this weekend. Still a quite a few days out, but something to keep a very close eye on nonetheless.
Quoting F16NightSpook:
Ref: Post 91 on UFOs on I-75.

Before anyone can even give a good guess, we need the year, time of day (or night), were you looking left (west) or right (east) and about where you were on that route. Looking east you would see the warning/restricted airspace areas of the Cape. Looking west, is the W470 airspace over the GoM.

The most logical easy solution is a fighter jet in afterburner doing an energy gaining maneuver that we call a Low Yo-Yo. Basically, to accelerate in the fastest way, one needs to eliminate induced drag on the airplane which is caused by lift and light the AB (which makes LOTs of light at night). You eliminate lift by unloading the jet to zero gravity, which means you are descending like a brick at the speed of warp. Once the airspeed gets up to what you want, you do a gentle pull up with the AB still cooking and you start uphill toward your target at warp x 2! Its great fun and very visible from a long way off. The reason I asked for the year is that would help define what type of aircraft, etc.

As a combat pilot and Night Test Pilot, I have seen lots of things I can't easily explain, but that's another story on another slow weather day!

Good answer. I'm just a GA pilot, so I never even thought of military aircraft. I saw a few of those kind of maneuvers when I was flying near NAS Fallon at night, and had no idea what it was until I met an F/A 18 jockey, and he explained the low yo-yo to me. It must be a real ball to fly high performance aircraft. The old 172 just wasn't much good at vertical flight. :-)
AMO



GIStemp



AMO goes up and down, GIStemp goes up
Quoting 144. Astrometeor:



Depends on your definition of "nasty", hydrus. Nasty for me means rain showers with no severe t-storms. Or worse...sunny days with only a hot wind blowing. Yuck!

:)
When I say "nasty" I mean severe weather...We have had a nice break here, and I hope it continues..We still have scars from the last storms that blew through a few years ago.
Quoting 142. F16NightSpook:
Ref: Post 91 on UFOs on I-75.

Before anyone can even give a good guess, we need the year, time of day (or night), were you looking left (west) or right (east) and about where you were on that route. Looking east you would see the warning/restricted airspace areas of the Cape. Looking west, is the W470 airspace over the GoM.

The most logical easy solution is a fighter jet in afterburner doing an energy gaining maneuver that we call a Low Yo-Yo. Basically, to accelerate in the fastest way, one needs to eliminate induced drag on the airplane which is caused by lift and light the AB (which makes LOTs of light at night). You eliminate lift by unloading the jet to zero gravity, which means you are descending like a brick at the speed of warp. Once the airspeed gets up to what you want, you do a gentle pull up with the AB still cooking and you start uphill toward your target at warp x 2! Its great fun and very visible from a long way off. The reason I asked for the year is that would help define what type of aircraft, etc.

As a combat pilot and Night Test Pilot, I have seen lots of things I can't easily explain, but that's another story on another slow weather day!


This was mid-February 2006, probably about 7-8 pm. Also it was straight ahead(north, generally). The bright light went straight down(probably about 25 degrees from where I first saw it to where it stopped), stopped and then went straight up and disappeared, all in the space of about 3 seconds.
Quoting 139. CybrTeddy:

I'm not going to lie, this might be my favorite blog update from Dr. Masters.

"I,M A VERY RESPONSIBLE PERSON."

Well, at least he was nice enough to alert us before hand.
Probably StormTop...It rings with his post demeanor.
Quoting hydrus:
So do I..The one we saw was bad to the bone fast, and made no sound at all.
Yes, silent. No sound. I did not see the one I saw move, just hover.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I'm not going to lie, this might be my favorite blog update from Dr. Masters.

"I,M A VERY RESPONSIBLE PERSON."

Well, at least he was nice enough to alert us before hand.

These kind of things were inevitable once patients in mental hospitals had access to computers and can refuse their meds. It seems that many of them are now listening to the voices in their heads about MH370 too.
Stephen Hawking: Humans Should Fear Aliens:

He suggests that aliens might simply raid Earth for its resources and then move on: "We only have to look at ourselves to see how intelligent life might develop into something we wouldn't want to meet. I imagine they might exist in massive ships, having used up all the resources from their home planet. Such advanced aliens would perhaps become nomads, looking to conquer and colonise whatever planets they can reach."


He concludes that trying to make contact with alien races is "a little too risky". He said: "If aliens ever visit us, I think the outcome would be much as when Christopher Columbus first landed in America, which didn't turn out very well for the Native Americans."


IT'S A COOKBOOK!!!!

Quoting 141. Patrap:

Any intelligence that can travel interstellar Space would hardly posses the Human style of Violence and idiocy, as they would have evolved way past that I'm sure.

The Universe is a Big place and the nearest Star 4 years away at the Speed o Light.

Humans are my Main worry, they create enough Chaos from thought.

Everything you see within yer sight, or reach came from it.

Save for Nature.

Man is the one to worry about,...not any Alien Visitors




can not believe 4 years has past since it happened

Quoting 147. Webberweather53:



Of course each dataset has its drawbacks, but even for the simple fact @ how far it has diverged from satellite temps, and even Hadcrut 4, clearly something is amiss...


here's GIS side by side with UAH

Link

looks like UAH shows more warming than GISS
142.
2:53 PM EDT on April 21, 2014

Thank You for your service to the Country.  I am wondering (looking at your F-4 Pic and  F-16 Avatar) if the Low Yo-Yo maneuver modifies in any significant way if you are flying a Raptor instead with the variable nozzles; seems to me that the turning radius could probably be shortened on that maneuver with help from the nozzles but the G's might still be too harsh (to the pilot and not the plane).

Thank You Sir.

Quoting 155. ricderr:

Latest ENSO recent evolution report is out


Nothing newsworthy in the update as no changes occurred during the past week. Is getting late for 2014 to stay above 1997-98 Strong El Nino for this date.
I wonder when we will soon be tracking another Ike.
in fact, looks to me like the outlier is RSS, and not GIStemp

Link

actually, it's quite obvious RSS is the outlier. But it's objective satellite data, right?!
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
OKay. Yeah, on Maui, in the middle of the Pacific roughly 2500 miles from anywhere, during an island-wide power failure - kind of like being on a ship. lol Um, I don't really remember what year, hydrus. I remember the power failure occurred during the night before a Super Bowl when the Buffalo Bills played and lost. That narrows it some. lol Early 1990s.


Have a look here and see if it has any resemblance to what you saw.
Quoting 155. ricderr:

Latest ENSO recent evolution report is out


Yeah I saw that earlier this morning and what is becoming increasingly interesting is how fast these temps near South America have shot up over the last few days. It was the last week in April 1997 that saw significant warming across the Pacific as the MjO moved in which it is doing so now. Infact look at these 850 wind vectors plowing west across the Pacfic and into the Caribbean.

This is very impressive.
Quoting ricderr:
Latest ENSO recent evolution report is out


Thanks for the link Ric!

"ENSO neutral conditions continue."

Looks like >50% chance of an El Nino summer/fall. How strong we get who knows, model consensus says up to 1C. Doubt we get 'the strongest el nino ever' as one says.

Also interesting the 3 month outlook shows above average temperatures for the lower 2/3rds of the country.
Quoting 157. Grothar:

Stephen Hawking: Humans Should Fear Aliens:

He suggests that aliens might simply raid Earth for its resources and then move on: "We only have to look at ourselves to see how intelligent life might develop into something we wouldn't want to meet. I imagine they might exist in massive ships, having used up all the resources from their home planet. Such advanced aliens would perhaps become nomads, looking to conquer and colonise whatever planets they can reach."


He concludes that trying to make contact with alien races is "a little too risky". He said: "If aliens ever visit us, I think the outcome would be much as when Christopher Columbus first landed in America, which didn't turn out very well for the Native Americans."


IT'S A COOKBOOK!!!!


Aliens would be so advanced, we may not actually know what they are when they appear. The Universe is a VERY strange place.
Quoting 161. Tropicsweatherpr:



Nothing newsworthy in the update as no changes occurred during the past week. Is getting late for 2014 to stay above 1997-98 Strong El Nino for this date.


I was thinking the samething until I came across this over the weekend.

1997


2014
Watch Elon Musk's SpaceX Falcon 9 Rocket Launch and Land Itself [Video]
Published: April 21st 2014, 2:46pm

Published on Apr 18, 2014
Video of Falcon 9 Reusable (F9R) taking its first test flight at our rocket development facility. F9R lifts off from a launch mount to a height of approximately 250m, hovers and then returns for landing just next to the launch stand. Early flights of F9R will take off with legs fixed in the down position. However, we will soon be transitioning to liftoff with legs stowed against the side of the rocket and then extending them just before landing.

The F9R testing program is the next step towards reusability following completion of the Grasshopper program last year (Grasshopper can be seen in the background of this video). Future testing, including that in New Mexico, will be conducted using the first stage of a F9R as shown here, which is essentially a Falcon 9 v1.1 first stage with legs. F9R test flights in New Mexico will allow us to test at higher altitudes than we are permitted for at our test site in Texas, to do more with unpowered guidance and to prove out landing cases that are more-flight like.

Quoting 167. StormWx:



Thanks for the link Ric!

"ENSO neutral conditions continue."

Looks like >50% chance of an El Nino summer/fall. How strong we get who knows, model consensus says up to 1C. Doubt we get 'the strongest el nino ever' as one says.

Also interesting the 3 month outlook shows above average temperatures for the lower 2/3rds of the country.


Eric Blake @EricBlake12

Latest WWB is the strongest of the year- should squash any sig upwelling KW and favors a strong Nino later this yr pic.twitter.com/eDpZxoiWYf
Quoting 111. SouthCentralTx:



That link doesn't prove that what they are saying is wrong. That map you are showing shows about 12 years of a "pause" in global temperatures. It's been debated here over and over and I prefer to stay out of it but what you showed does not show much of a change to me over the past decade.

Instead of looking at pictures, let's look at the numbers instead. Let's also compare the trends of 1997-present, 1998-present, and 1999-present with the trends for 1979 -1997. And let's use six different data sets so that we get a good overview of what the data are saying:

GISTEMP
1979-1997 Trend: 0.108 ±0.122 °C/decade (2σ)

1997-2014 Trend: 0.078 ±0.119 °C/decade (2σ)
1998-2014 Trend: 0.069 ±0.129 °C/decade (2σ)
1999-2014 Trend: 0.098 ±0.139 °C/decade (2σ)

NOAA
1979-1997 Trend: 0.103 ±0.104 °C/decade (2σ)

1997-2014 Trend: 0.046 ±0.109 °C/decade (2σ)
1998-2014 Trend: 0.041 ±0.121 °C/decade (2σ)
1999-2014 Trend: 0.066 ±0.129 °C/decade (2σ)

HADCRUT4
1979-1997 Trend: 0.108 ±0.107 °C/decade (2σ)

1997-2014 Trend: 0.048 ±0.112 °C/decade (2σ)
1998-2014 Trend: 0.042 ±0.123 °C/decade (2σ)
1999-2014 Trend: 0.066 ±0.129 °C/decade (2σ)

UAH
1979-1997 Trend: 0.034 ±0.178 °C/decade (2σ)

1997-2014 Trend: 0.094 ±0.206 °C/decade (2σ)
1998-2014 Trend: 0.062 ±0.221 °C/decade (2σ)
1999-2014 Trend: 0.146 ±0.212 °C/decade (2σ)

RSS
1979-1997 Trend: 0.071 ±0.170 °C/decade (2σ)

1997-2014 Trend: -0.013 ±0.201 °C/decade (2σ)
1998-2014 Trend: -0.050 ±0.217 °C/decade (2σ)
1999-2014 Trend: 0.027 ±0.211 °C/decade (2σ)

COWTAN & WAY
1979-1997 Trend: 0.114 ±0.133 °C/decade (2σ)

1997-2014 Trend: 0.114 ±0.136 °C/decade (2σ)
1998-2014 Trend: 0.109 ±0.149 °C/decade (2σ)
1999-2014 Trend: 0.138 ±0.161 °C/decade (2σ)

The observant among you might notice that for the 1979-1997 period only one data set, HADCRUT4, shows statistically significant warming. And that's by the barest possible amount.

Now, about that "pause"....

Quoting 167. StormWx:



Thanks for the link Ric!

"ENSO neutral conditions continue."

Looks like >50% chance of an El Nino summer/fall. How strong we get who knows, model consensus says up to 1C. Doubt we get 'the strongest el nino ever' as one says.

Also interesting the 3 month outlook shows above average temperatures for the lower 2/3rds of the country.


Went from a consesus of 2C to 1.5C today. Never was 1C but thanks.

Quoting hydrus:
Just a hunch, but this could be the beginning of something nasty...Next few days should pin it down..

The boys in Birmingham mentioned this in their forecast discussion this morning:

LOOKING WAY OUT IN TIME THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK...LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A BIG PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS
THE COUNTRY WITH A VERY STRONG PACIFIC JET STREAM ENTERING INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS. THE GUIDANCE SUITE IS HAVING A TOUGH TIME RESOLVING
CRUCIAL UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THOSE FEATURES WILL DETERMINE WHAT
IMPACTS WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE COUNTRY AS THE PACIFIC SYSTEM EJECTS
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WE`LL HAVE TO WATCH HOW GUIDANCE
TRENDS EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WE COULD BE LOOKING AT VERY
ACTIVE WEATHER OFF TO OUR WEST IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THAT COULD
TRANSLATE OUR DIRECTION BY NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. STAY TUNED.


They rarely mention anything this far out, and it does sound the models are having a difficult time with it. Still, the very fact they mentioned it at all makes me pay attention. It's been over two years since our last tornado and almost a year since we had a "real" severe storm event, so it seems like our good luck can't hold forever.
Nothing newsworthy in the update as no changes occurred during the past week. Is getting late for 2014 to stay above 1997-98 Strong El Nino for this date.


i don't buy into the month to month comparisons as from what i understand....the kw from this year...started a month earlier than in 97
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL CYCLONE JACK, CATEGORY TWO (16U)
2:54 AM WST April 22 2014
================================

At 2:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Jack, Category Two (986 hPa) located at 16.8S 93.2E or 650 km southwest of Cocos Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 6 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==============
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
============
60 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
90 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
90 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
60 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/4.0/W1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 18.2S 93.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 19.3S 94.1E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS 19.5S 94.8E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS 19.5S 95.7E- 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
==================

Tropical Cyclone Jack has been located overnight by a series of microwave images showing the low level circulation center displaced from the central dense overcast as the system begins to be ripped apart by strong shear.

Dvorak analysis has shifted to a shear pattern which sees the low level circulation center now more than half a degree away from the cold cloud. This gives DT around 2.5 to 3 averaged over the past 3 hours. FT has been set at 3.0 in line with MET. CI kept one T number higher at 4.0 giving current intensity of 45 knots [10 min]. SATCON at 15 UTC had intensity at 47 knots [1 min].

Strong northwest shear across the system will continue the rapid weakening trend and Jack is expected to fall below tropical cyclone intensity late Tuesday. The forecast track is for continued southeastwards motion for the next 12 hours though once the low level circulation center is completely removed from the deep convection it's motion is expected to be influenced by the ridge to the south.
Went from a consesus of 2C to 1.5C today. Never was 1C but thanks.


problem with the cfs2....as has been noted in the past...it starts out too high
Quoting 147. Webberweather53:



Of course each dataset has its drawbacks, but even for the simple fact @ how far it has diverged from satellite temps, and even Hadcrut 4, clearly something is amiss...

Yes, satellite data is difficult to get right.

The reason GISS has a slightly(and statistically insignificant) higher trend is that it has better coverage of the polar regions. Period. Your conspiracy theory about "upward adjustments" is a baseless claim. This is easily demonstrated by using the favorite time period of denialists everywhere: 1998-present.

GISS 1998-2014 Trend: 0.069 ±0.129 °C/decade (2σ)
UAH 1998-2014 Trend: 0.062 ±0.221 °C/decade (2σ)

These last 9 days of April are key to keeping up with 1997 as we saw tremendous warming the last 8 days of April in 1997 so if we don't see that occur over the next week then we will fall short of 1997 but maybe not by much well see.

Here's the end of April 1997 you can see the dramatic increase the last 8 days of April 1997.
We've had a roughly three week "pause" of warming in the key ENSO regions. 3.4 hovering right around that 0.5C level, just below it presently.



1+2 is on an upward trend but still only about where it was to start the month and still on the cool side of normal.



It'll come though. A super El Nino remains doubtful IMO. But a peak of around 1.5C seems reasonable to me, so a moderate to perhaps briefly strong El Nino.
143.
sar2401
2:56 PM EDT on April 21, 2014

Yup; when you consider all types of aircraft using lights at night as they circle in for landings, approaching your position looking stationary, or military jets on manuvers/training, that can go a long way towards explaining a large portion of the sightings.  Especially night sightings near military and testing facilities (think Nevada and New Mexico and the Florida Gulf operating areas for the AF and Navy).  A Raptor flying out of Tyndall doing tight training maneuvers in the sky over the Gulf at night is going to look like lights darting around in the sky or the same catching glints from the sun during daylight.

Don't know that Dr. Masters was ready for all the UFO comments today but he opened the door with the title of the Blog.........................lol. 

Quoting Birthmark:

Instead of looking at pictures, let's look at the numbers instead. Let's also compare the trends of 1997-present, 1998-present, and 1999-present with the trends for 1979 -1997. And let's use six different data sets so that we get a good overview of what the data are saying:

GISTEMP
1979-1997 Trend: 0.108 ±0.122 °C/decade (2σ)

1997-2014 Trend: 0.078 ±0.119 °C/decade (2σ)
1998-2014 Trend: 0.069 ±0.129 °C/decade (2σ)
1999-2014 Trend: 0.098 ±0.139 °C/decade (2σ)

NOAA
1979-1997 Trend: 0.103 ±0.104 °C/decade (2σ)

1997-2014 Trend: 0.046 ±0.109 °C/decade (2σ)
1998-2014 Trend: 0.041 ±0.121 °C/decade (2σ)
1999-2014 Trend: 0.066 ±0.129 °C/decade (2σ)

HADCRUT4
1979-1997 Trend: 0.108 ±0.107 °C/decade (2σ)

1997-2014 Trend: 0.048 ±0.112 °C/decade (2σ)
1998-2014 Trend: 0.042 ±0.123 °C/decade (2σ)
1999-2014 Trend: 0.066 ±0.129 °C/decade (2σ)

UAH
1979-1997 Trend: 0.034 ±0.178 °C/decade (2σ)

1997-2014 Trend: 0.094 ±0.206 °C/decade (2σ)
1998-2014 Trend: 0.062 ±0.221 °C/decade (2σ)
1999-2014 Trend: 0.146 ±0.212 °C/decade (2σ)

RSS
1979-1997 Trend: 0.071 ±0.170 °C/decade (2σ)

1997-2014 Trend: -0.013 ±0.201 °C/decade (2σ)
1998-2014 Trend: -0.050 ±0.217 °C/decade (2σ)
1999-2014 Trend: 0.027 ±0.211 °C/decade (2σ)

COWTAN & WAY
1979-1997 Trend: 0.114 ±0.133 °C/decade (2σ)

1997-2014 Trend: 0.114 ±0.136 °C/decade (2σ)
1998-2014 Trend: 0.109 ±0.149 °C/decade (2σ)
1999-2014 Trend: 0.138 ±0.161 °C/decade (2σ)

The observant among you might notice that for the 1979-1997 period only one data set, HADCRUT4, shows statistically significant warming. And that's by the barest possible amount.

Now, about that "pause"....


You lost me completely on that one. It looks like all the data shows warming from decade to decade. Are you saying the warming isn't statistically significant on the other five models? Can you post the same data from 1979 to 2014, forgetting decades, so we can see the actual temperature difference between the models for the start and end of the entire period?
Quoting 175. ricderr:

Nothing newsworthy in the update as no changes occurred during the past week. Is getting late for 2014 to stay above 1997-98 Strong El Nino for this date.


i don't buy into the month to month comparisons as from what i understand....the kw from this year...started a month earlier than in 97


Yeah it did and now we have another one forming so these next 6 to 8 months are going to be very interesting. When looking at this below notice what happens at the far left on the last few frames. You can clearly see we might have a second kelvin Wave forming.

I think and I could be wrong we only had 1 Kelvin Wave in 1997 so if we get 2 this year how unprecedented would that be?
Quoting 180. MAweatherboy1:

We've had a roughly three week "pause" of warming in the key ENSO regions. 3.4 hovering right around that 0.5C level, just below it presently.



1+2 is on an upward trend but still only about where it was to start the month and still on the cool side of normal.



It'll come though. A super El Nino remains doubtful IMO. But a peak of around 1.5C seems reasonable to me, so a moderate to perhaps briefly strong El Nino.


Latest cfsv2 agrees with you but don't be surprised if we end up with much higher values.
I guess we should keep watching the models for april 30th,it could get quite stormy.....................................
Quoting 182. sar2401:


You lost me completely on that one. It looks like all the data shows warming from decade to decade. Are you saying the warming isn't statistically significant on the other five models? Can you post the same data from 1979 to 2014, forgetting decades, so we can see the actual temperature difference between the models for the start and end of the entire period?

GISS Trend: 0.157 ±0.044 °C/decade (2σ)

NOAA Trend: 0.148 ±0.040 °C/decade (2σ)

HADCRUT4 Trend: 0.154 ±0.041 °C/decade (2σ)

RSS Trend: 0.125 ±0.069 °C/decade (2σ)

UAH Trend: 0.138 ±0.070 °C/decade (2σ)

COWTAN & WAY Trend: 0.171 ±0.049 °C/decade (2σ)
Quoting 183. StormTrackerScott:


Yeah it did and now we have another one forming so these next 6 to 8 months are going to be very interesting. When looking at this below notice what happens at the far left on the last few frames. You can clearly see we might have a second kelvin Wave forming.



I'd hold off on calling that a second Kelvin Wave, at least until there's a few more frames that show it growing and spreading Eastward.
**THE GOVERMENT SHOULD ORDER THE CLEANING OF ALL RIVER AND TO PLACE LEVIS ON ALL RIVERBANKS IN U.S**

Was that people, or jeans? :))) One makes as much sense as the other.
Quoting 179. StormTrackerScott:

These last 9 days of April are key to keeping up with 1997 as we saw tremendous warming the last 8 days of April in 1997 so if we don't see that occur over the next week then we will fall short of 1997 but maybe not by much well see.

Here's the end of April 1997 you can see the dramatic increase the last 8 days of April 1997.


I don't think we will get there.
It looks like a lot of cold water forming off the coast of South America. Maybe the wave will push it out of the way.

Ocean currents forced by these winds advected warm water eastward near the equator (Chavez et al., 1998; Lagerloef et al., ? ). As a result, the warm pool expanded, increasing the areal extent of warm water over which subsequent cycles of the MJO could force the ocean. The amount of wind energy transferred from the atmosphere to the ocean depends in part on wind fetch, so that an eastward expansion of the warm pool resulted in a positive feedback between westerly wind forcing and the warm pool expansion. In addition, increasingly strong westerly wind forcing generated downwelling intraseasonal equatorial Kelvin waves of increasing amplitude. These waves propagated eastward across the basin in about 2 months, ultimately depressing the thermocline in the eastern Pacific by more than 90 m in late 1997 (Fig. 2). A depressed thermocline favors development of warm surface temperatures, because the subsurface cold water reservoir that feeds upwelling in the equatorial cold tongue is pushed down to greater depths (Kessler and McPhaden, 1995a; Barnett et al., 1991). In the western Pacific on the other hand, the thermocline shoaled by 20 to 40 m in 1997 as Rossby waves excited by the initial weakening of the tradewinds propagated westward toward Indonesia and New Guinea (Boulanger and Menkes, ?). SSTs cooled in the west, presumably because of enhanced evaporative heat loss from the ocean and greater oceanic mixing of cold subsurface waters due to MJO-generated ocean turbulence (Weller and Anderson, 1996; Cronin and MchPhaden, 1997; Brainerd and Gregg, 1997; Godfrey et al., 1998). The net result of these processes was a flattening of the thermocline and disappearance of the normal east-west SST gradient along the equator. The weakened large-scale SST gradient, in turn, fed back into a large-scale weakening of the trade winds, within which the series of westerly events was embedded.
Quoting 189. TimSoCal:



I'd hold off on calling that a second Kelvin Wave, at least until there's a few more frames that show it growing and spreading Eastward.


That's why I said "might". Well find out tomorrow once this updates again.
everyone keeps saying like 1997 or 1999 seasons...i'd like to ask this...what were the sunspots like in those years and what are they like for this coming season...scientists all over the web are saying little or no sunspot activitythis year..which in turn affects earths weather in some way.
.....wait for it



Quoting 187. LargoFl:

I guess we should keep watching the models for april 30th,it could get quite stormy.....................................


I had a lot of crow last weekend as the models have been trash lately but I do agree that the overall pattern favors stormy weather across FL next week.
When I was in High School one evening we saw a fuzzy white light that was round and about the size of the moon, after about a half hour it smeared across the sky and had green and red neon colors coming out of it. When I told my Dad, he thought I was on something and sent me to bed with no dinner.
The next day's paper announced NASA was testing rarified gasses, as a way to bounce communication signals long distances. Dad apologized.
I've also seen glowing red lights in the sky... after much radio speculation it turned out to be the Aurora stretched all the way down to Florida. It corresponded with staticky radio in the morning and visible sun spots through the thick cloud cover.
Back to the weather for me.  Another issue to look at down the road for the Atlantic season is the rather large Gulf eddy out there at the moment.  A lot can happen in four months and it could break off into a semi-permanent feature come August and September.  This particular eddy seems bigger to me that some of the ones in recent years but there have also been no storms to take of advantage of these eddies in the last few seasons; thankfully:


Quoting weathermanwannabe:



143.

sar2401



2:56 PM EDT on April 21, 2014


Yup; when you consider all types of aircraft using lights at night as they circle in for landings, approaching your position looking stationary, or military jets on manuvers/training, that can go a long way towards explaining a large portion of the sightings.  Especially night sightings near military and testing facilities (think Nevada and New Mexico and the Florida Gulf operating areas for the AF and Navy).  A Raptor flying out of Tyndall doing tight training maneuvers in the sky over the Gulf at night is going to look like lights darting around in the sky or the same catching glints from the sun during daylight.

Don't know that Dr. Masters was ready for all the UFO comments today but he opened the door with the title of the Blog.........................lol. 


LOL. I'll bet he really has a gigantic folder with wacky global warming e-mails. I was looking at Super Bowl history, and the only time the Bills lost was 1992 and 1994, so the event Barefoot saw would have been in January of one of those two years. No Raptors or Ospreys around then. The only hovering non- helicopter aircraft that could have been in or near Maui would have been a USMC Harrier. If it was doing practice landings on a blacked out amphibious assault ship, it would have looked pretty strange at night. I don't know, hard to tell at this late date. I've seen some strange stuff while flying at night. One time, I was sure I was on a collision course with an aircraft straight off my nose. I did three altitude changes and the other plane never seemed to change attitude. I called Reno approach control, and they showed no aircraft on my heading. It had the brightest landing lights I'd ever seen. It was only after i bought up the star chart on my Palm Pilot (yes, that long ago) that I finally realized...it was Venus. Talk about feeling like a dope. :-)
Quoting 195. LargoFl:

everyone keeps saying like 1997 or 1999 seasons...i'd like to ask this...what were the sunspots like in those years and what are they like for this coming season...scientists all over the web are saying little or no sunspot activitythis year..which in turn affects earths weather in some way.

We're in the middle of the weakest solar cycle in over 100 years.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Still it warms.
Quoting 195. LargoFl:

everyone keeps saying like 1997 or 1999 seasons...i'd like to ask this...what were the sunspots like in those years and what are they like for this coming season...scientists all over the web are saying little or no sunspot activitythis year..which in turn affects earths weather in some way.


Maybe try solarham or the noaa spaceweather page.

Cuz "That's where the, Science is usually" on da Web.

Sunspots currently

I've seen your "Science" Links in yer current Entry on The New Ice Age so..............

Quoting goosegirl1:
**THE GOVERMENT SHOULD ORDER THE CLEANING OF ALL RIVER AND TO PLACE LEVIS ON ALL RIVERBANKS IN U.S**

Was that people, or jeans? :))) One makes as much sense as the other.


Wrangler (and other companies) would sue on the basis of anti-trust law if it was Levi the jeans producer, lol.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I had a lot of crow last weekend as the models have been trash lately but I do agree that the overall pattern favors stormy weather across FL next week.

Seriously. We got all the rain you were supposed to have and didn't get, and the models didn't catch that either. I'm just not saying anything about weather more than three days in advance now. The models have not been doing well at all, and the GFS in particular seems to see a tornado outbreak with every run. Now it looks like the GFS is forecasting a pretty big event from Monday through Wednesday, from the Plains down to Florida. I'm just not buying into it until it gets a lot closer and things start to verify. My fiance has gone from thinking I was pretty good at this weather stuff to thinking I'm a dope. It's frustrating to say the least.




Edit: Fixed, I think.
Quoting 201. Birthmark:


We're in the middle of the weakest solar cycle in over 100 years.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Still it warms.
i was just browsing the web..and i was surprised just how many scientists and studies have found sunspot activity (highs and low points)..that affect hurricanes..even saw a piece from the doc saying at sunspot Low points More hurricanes hit the USA than when they are at their high point........64% more hit the usa when there are few or none on the sun...and we Now...are at the Low point in sunspots...could be one very interesting season...I for one am going to be watching this to see IF it proves true.....IF it does....then maybe we all have to watch sunspot numbers besides watching the model runs...interesting indeed
208. yoboi
Quoting 201. Birthmark:

We're in the middle of the weakest solar cycle in over 100 years.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Still it warms.


wait until SC25......
Quoting 191. Gearsts:


I don't think we will get there.


Moderate at peak (+1.2C) is my estimation of El Nino.
Quoting 205. sar2401:

Seriously. We got all the rain you were supposed to have and didn't get, and the models didn't catch that either. I'm just not saying anything about weather more than three days in advance now. The models have not been doing well at all, and the GFS in particular seems to see a tornado outbreak with every run. Now it looks like the GFS is forecasting a pretty big event from Monday through Wednesday, from the Plains down to Florida. I'm just not buying into it until it gets a lot closer and things start to verify. My fiance has gone from thinking I was pretty good at this weather stuff to thinking I'm a dope. It's frustrating to say the least.


Yeah it was weird as 24hrs prior to the actual event the models did a complete 360 on us. Made me look embarrassed on here as I was just posting what the models were showing only to let me fall flat on my face and this was inside the 3 day range that you speak of.
Quoting 209. Tropicsweatherpr:


Moderate at peak ( 1.2C) is my estimation of El Nino.


Even with a record sub surface warm pool? Once this surfaces then get ready which it appears to be doing so along the South American coast and if this indeed is happening then you will see these warm anomalies spread west. Kinda of like a flowing river that hits a dam then ripples back the other direction.

Impressive warming appears to underway across Nino 1&2 and it's spreading west so that makes me believe that this Kelvin Wave is now surfacing along the South American Coast.

Quoting Birthmark:

We're in the middle of the weakest solar cycle in over 100 years.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Still it warms.

Indeed. I've made this point several times. I've been an amateur radio operator since....let's see, 10 *3 - pi....1959. I was paying attention to solar cycles long before the first computer, when I only knew what happened a week after a flare occurred. We haven't had a good sunspot cycle since Cycle 22, way back in 1990. This one doesn't even deserve to be called a sunspot cycle it's so weak. If the number of sunspots was contributing to any global temperature increase, things should have been headed down for the past 24 years or so. I don't think that's happened.
Quoting 212. sar2401:


Indeed. I've made this point several times. I've been an amateur radio operator since....let's see, 10 *3 - pi....1959. I was paying attention to solar cycles long before the first computer, when I only knew what happened a week after a flare occurred. We haven't had a good sunspot cycle since Cycle 22, way back in 1990. This one doesn't even deserve to be called a sunspot cycle it's so weak. If the number of sunspots was contributing to any global temperature increase, things should have been headed down for the past 24 years or so. I don't think that's happened.
yes most of the sientists are saying the same thing
Sunspots may predict hurricanes as well as global warming and cooling, says a recent study conducted by Florida State University.

The study, which was presented to the American Meteorological Society and published in the scientific journal, Geophysical Research Letters, indicates the probability of hurricanes hitting the United States increases dramatically during low points of the 11-year sunspot cycle, such as we are currently experiencing.

Sunspots have long been implicated in the global climate. During periods of high sunspot activity, which occurred throughout the Medieval Warm Period, global temperatures rose. During the low points in sunspot activity, such as in the Little Ice Age, temperatures declined.

How does this affect hurricanes? Well, years with few sunspots and above-normal ocean temperatures, as is the case now, spawn a less stable atmosphere and, consequently, more hurricanes. When that happens, the differential creates more atmospheric instability and stronger storms, energizing what might otherwise remain tropical storms into hurricanes. Years with more sunspots but still above-normal ocean temperatures yield a more stable atmosphere and thus fewer hurricanes.

So here's the breakdown in numbers...
•The chance of at least one hurricane hitting the United States spikes to 64 percent in the lowest sunspot years, compared to only a 25 percent chance in peak sunspot years.


•Chances of three or more hurricanes hitting the United States increase from 20 percent to 40 percent in years when sunspots are in the lowest 25 percent, compared with years when they're in the highest 25 percent.
Interestingly, there are a whole bunch of predictors hurricane experts have been looking at when issuing their extreme forecasts for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, however, sunspots was not one of them. To that extent, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is considering using sunspots cycles as a predictor in future forecasts as they continue to see more evidence.
It has been difficult so far this year to get a handle on the severe weather threat due to the very late end to winter.  I am thinking that the "real" Gulf flow that contributes to the normal April spring threat will probably get going in earnest over the next 4 weeks and create some of the needed instability issues as we get some late moving lows coming in across Conus before everything transitions to "summer".

So far so good for Texas and those parts at the moment; no severe t-storms have materialized there yet per the WPS discussion this morning;

Much of the convectionshould spawn along a north-south oriented trof across Texas/Oklahoma where low-level convergence will be maximized. Sufficient daytime heating is expected leading to large amounts of instability in the atmosphere. The Storm Prediction Center outlook suggests a threat for severe thunderstorm development anywhere from Central Texas toward the Arkansas/Louisiana
border through tonight.


Although there is a healthy looking cell of t-storms moving through central Arkansas at the moment it has been very quiet in the mid-west so far this year in terms of a tornado threat; hopefully, that will remain the case.
so IF the study results prove to be accurate..we should have a very interesting season ahead of us..and maybe the next one as well...gee living in florida i hope they are wrong.
say is texas still in a drought?..anyone know?
Quoting 217. LargoFl:
say is texas still in a drought?..anyone know?


Yes,

Got to love this blog!
Quoting LargoFl:
say is texas still in a drought?..anyone know?


Yep, check the US Drought Monitor for the rest of the US.



Edit: Darn it, Scott beat me to the punch.
Quoting Birthmark:

GISS Trend: 0.157 ±0.044 °C/decade (2σ)

NOAA Trend: 0.148 ±0.040 °C/decade (2σ)

HADCRUT4 Trend: 0.154 ±0.041 °C/decade (2σ)

RSS Trend: 0.125 ±0.069 °C/decade (2σ)

UAH Trend: 0.138 ±0.070 °C/decade (2σ)

COWTAN & WAY Trend: 0.171 ±0.049 °C/decade (2σ)

Thanks for doing the leg (or mouse and finger) work for the figures. It looks like all the data sets show that we've been warming since 1979 but that the NOAA trend showed the smallest temperature increase while COWTAN & WAY showed the biggest. Are you saying, however, that only the HADCRUT4 data was statistically significant? Regardless of that issue, it's still pretty clear we have been slowly warming, and the rate of warming has been increasing with each decade. I just don't get why that part is even still an issue. I'm more than willing to debate the "We're all going to die" scenarios for 2100 but, unless every scientist that contributed to each of the six studies is in the pay of the Illuminati and faking the numbers, I don't see how the numbers and trend can be reasonably denied.
Quoting 209. Tropicsweatherpr:



Moderate at peak (+1.2C) is my estimation of El Nino.
Agree
Well I guess we will see if this verifies this time.

Very impressive by the CPC rain wise across FL next week. Not often they go this agressive for us this time of year.

Quoting 211. StormTrackerScott:



Even with a record sub surface warm pool? Once this surfaces then get ready which it appears to be doing so along the South American coast and if this indeed is happening then you will see these warm anomalies spread west. Kinda of like a flowing river that hits a dam then ripples back the other direction.

Impressive warming appears to underway across Nino 1&2 and it's spreading west so that makes me believe that this Kelvin Wave is now surfacing along the South American Coast.

Sorry Scott.Not buying the doom and gloom super el nino you've been talking about for some time now.A moderate one is a good estimation and we can go from there.Everything doesn't have to be doom.Only your state and a few in the south along with Cali will benefit from this strong "el nino".I know your biased for Florida weather however...
Quoting 193. ricderr:




Talk about creepy: look at this skeleton face in the competing lows W of FL.
Quoting 224. washingtonian115:


LOL! Actually I was rooting for the SW drought to be over. I could care less what we get in FL this upcoming winter as no matter what we will get a lot of rain here this summer. It's Texas west I am rooting for. Geesh!

Also it's not just rooting as we are seeing a record Kelvin Wave that will surface and bring a strong El-Nino later this year now the question is how strong. That's why every week now is key as El-Nino that form the next few months tend to be big ones. That is my thought process just so you know. Damm!!
Largo, any link to the actual study?
Quoting 218. StormTrackerScott:



Yes,


ok TY, i know folks over there last year really needed rain,hopefully this time around they get some.
Quoting 227. Naga5000:

Largo, any link to the actual study?

I will go look, ive read so many today...
Quoting 229. LargoFl:

I will go look, ive read so many today...


Thanks, I found the blog you quoted on the sunspot hurricane link, but it didn't have a link to the actual article either. One thing I have found while reading research on the internet is to never take a blog's explanation of it at face value without giving it a read myself. :)
Quoting 212. sar2401:


Indeed. I've made this point several times. I've been an amateur radio operator since....let's see, 10 *3 - pi....1959. I was paying attention to solar cycles long before the first computer, when I only knew what happened a week after a flare occurred. We haven't had a good sunspot cycle since Cycle 22, way back in 1990. This one doesn't even deserve to be called a sunspot cycle it's so weak. If the number of sunspots was contributing to any global temperature increase, things should have been headed down for the past 24 years or so. I don't think that's happened.

You are correct. It has warmed in all data sets. The warming over that period has been statistically significant in all but one data set (RSS, surprise!).
April Will Be First Month With CO2 Levels Above 400 PPM

April will be the first time in human history where levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide were higher than 400 parts per million for an entire month, one scientist who monitors the levels said. And they could stay above that mark into July.



[...]

“On some level, watching these milestones be passed is a lot like watching paint dry,” Jason Smerdon, a climate researcher at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, told Climate Central in an email. “The upward march is neither surprising nor unexpected as a direct consequence of human activities; it is only alarming in the sense that it keeps happening unabated.”

Scientists expected the 400 ppm mark to be surpassed at an earlier date this year — and, indeed, that point came a full two months earlier than last year — and for this year to see the first monthly carbon dioxide average above 400 ppm.

[...]

How long CO2 levels stay above 400 ppm this year, before a hemisphere’s worth of photosynthesis begins to draw them down, depends on how high they get in May. Tans expects them to peak somewhere between 402 and 403 ppm. If they do reach 403 ppm, levels could stay above 400 ppm into July, he said. (Carbon dioxide levels are even higher in the Arctic, Tans said, running close to 405 ppm right now, as the carbon cycle there has a higher amplitude.)

That higher peak this year means that the 400 ppm level will be passed even sooner next year, Tans said, possibly as early as February. The earlier benchmark happens because the biosphere draws down only a certain amount of carbon dioxide each growing season, leaving behind excess CO2 that hangs around into next year.

In another year or so, CO2 levels could still be at 400 ppm come fall, then eventually will stay above that level for the entire year, “and it will never go below 400 again,” Tans said. Or at least it won’t for many centuries, as the long-lived nature of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere means that its effects will be felt for many human generations, absent efforts to curb emissions or use carbon capture technologies to pull CO2 out of the atmosphere, a controversial prospect.

“This is a very long-term commitment,” Tans said.

The last time atmospheric carbon dioxide levels were this high consistently was anywhere from 800,000 to 15 million years ago, various studies have estimated. And at that time, global temperatures were much warmer and sea levels were up to 100 feet higher.

“Personally, I am alarmed,” Tans said.

Complete article >>
Quoting 230. Naga5000:



Thanks, I found the blog you quoted on the sunspot hurricane link, but it didn't have a link to the actual article either. One thing I have found while reading research on the internet is to never take a blog's explanation of it at face value without giving it a read myself. :)
Hi i found it but..its in PDF format and i cant get the link...put this into search..good luck.............................................. ..International Scholarly Research Network
ISRN Meteorology
Volume 2012, Article ID 517962, 9 pages
doi:10.5402/2012/517962
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
It has been difficult so far this year to get a handle on the severe weather threat due to the very late end to winter.  I am thinking that the "real" Gulf flow that contributes to the normal April spring threat will probably get going in earnest over the next 4 weeks and create some of the needed instability issues as we get some late moving lows coming in across Conus before everything transitions to "summer".

So far so good for Texas and those parts at the moment; no severe t-storms have materialized there yet per the WPS discussion this morning;

Much of the convectionshould spawn along a north-south oriented trof across Texas/Oklahoma where low-level convergence will be maximized. Sufficient daytime heating is expected leading to large amounts of instability in the atmosphere. The Storm Prediction Center outlook suggests a threat for severe thunderstorm development anywhere from Central Texas toward the Arkansas/Louisiana
border through tonight.


Although there is a healthy looking cell of t-storms moving through central Arkansas at the moment it has been very quiet in the mid-west so far this year in terms of a tornado threat; hopefully, that will remain the case.

It's 82 degrees in SE Alabama right now, with a dewpoint of 54 and RH of 38%...and that's with a south wind! I haven't seen a real Gulf flow this entire year. Even though my yard is still like a giant sponge after all the rain this last week, the humidity still hasn't come up. We haven't even had any fog, and we always have ground fog after a lot of rain and clear skies the night after. I've commented several times while these "big" storms were still approaching that our humidity was way too low to get much in the way of severe weather going. Maybe it is the late start to spring from winter. We did have a low of 34 just this past Wednesday, which is unusually chilly for us. This is the first day this year we actually have temperatures slightly above normal. I just don't know what's happening this year, but I've really lost faith in model solutions, even when the storm is on my figurative doorstep.
In the Arctic, both sea ice extent (JAXA and NSIDC) and area (CT) are very near record lows for the date, especially after some historically precipitous drops over the past few days. In fact, CT says there's currently 842,000 square kilometers less ice extent than there was on the same date in 2012, year of the record melt-out. That's an area the size of Texas and Georgia combined. Those pinning their hopes on some type of "recovery" are going to need to reset their expectations:



After some cloudy cool days in Orlando it appears the furance is getting turned on starting tomorrow.

2014 severe season has begun very low compared with past years as you can see at the graphic. Let's see if the next 4-6 weeks turn more active.

Quoting 236. Neapolitan:

In the Arctic, both sea ice extent (JAXA and NSIDC) and area (CT) are very near record lows for the date, especially after some historically precipitous drops over the past few days. In fact, CT says there's currently 842,000 square kilometers less ice extent than there was on the same date in 2012, year of the record melt-out. That's an area the size of Texas and Georgia combined. Those pinning their hopes on some type of "recovery" are going to need to reset their expectations:






but,but, its just a natural cycle, its the Sun! Yeah, the sun...
Can't believe May begins next week.
Quoting 223. StormTrackerScott:

Well I guess we will see if this verifies this time.

Very impressive by the CPC rain wise across FL next week. Not often they go this agressive for us this time of year.





Ahh the coming signs of El Nino.

This is officially the 4th wettest Spring in Tallahassee, although we aren't experiencing El Nino yet by global observation, it would be hard pressed to argue that synoptic patterns aren't already behaving like El Nino in the southeast.
Quoting 240. Jedkins01:



but,but, its just a natural cycle, its the Sun! Yeah, the sun...


Quoting 226. StormTrackerScott:



LOL! Actually I was rooting for the SW drought to be over. I could care less what we get in FL this upcoming winter as no matter what we will get a lot of rain here this summer. It's Texas west I am rooting for. Geesh!

Also it's not just rooting as we are seeing a record Kelvin Wave that will surface and bring a strong El-Nino later this year now the question is how strong. That's why every week now is key as El-Nino that form the next few months tend to be big ones. That is my thought process just so you know. Damm!!
What I'm saying is a moderate one will do just fine.We don't need a of the chart one to get the job done.
Quoting 200. sar2401:


LOL. I'll bet he really has a gigantic folder with wacky global warming e-mails. I was looking at Super Bowl history, and the only time the Bills lost was 1992 and 1994, so the event Barefoot saw would have been in January of one of those two years. No Raptors or Ospreys around then. The only hovering non- helicopter aircraft that could have been in or near Maui would have been a USMC Harrier. If it was doing practice landings on a blacked out amphibious assault ship, it would have looked pretty strange at night. I don't know, hard to tell at this late date. I've seen some strange stuff while flying at night. One time, I was sure I was on a collision course with an aircraft straight off my nose. I did three altitude changes and the other plane never seemed to change attitude. I called Reno approach control, and they showed no aircraft on my heading. It had the brightest landing lights I'd ever seen. It was only after i bought up the star chart on my Palm Pilot (yes, that long ago) that I finally realized...it was Venus. Talk about feeling like a dope. :-)


How about 1991-1994, they lost 4 years in a row. SB History
Quoting 201. Birthmark:


We're in the middle of the weakest solar cycle in over 100 years.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Still it warms.


The scary thing is, a lot of people still believe the sun is behind the global warming. Just wait until we do hit another natural warming period from the sun, add that to the CO2, and well, it might be bye bye glaciers.
Fun stuff, Doc.

Everybody take a deep breath and step away from the purple Kool-Aid.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


LOL! Actually I was rooting for the SW drought to be over. I could care less what we get in FL this upcoming winter as no matter what we will get a lot of rain here this summer. It's Texas west I am rooting for. Geesh!

Also it's not just rooting as we are seeing a record Kelvin Wave that will surface and bring a strong El-Nino later this year now the question is how strong. That's why every week now is key as El-Nino that form the next few months tend to be big ones. That is my thought process just so you know. Damm!!


I don't know where this idea came from that only the South and California benefit from El Nino. Looking at winter impacts, since they are the most intensely felt, temperatures range from slightly below an ENSO Neutral year to much below, from California all the way across the county and up the East Coast to about DC. It's only the Upper Midwest and the Pacific Northwest that see temperatures much above normal.



In terms of precipitation, it's the Southeast, from South Central Texas to Florida, and then all the way up the East Coast to Virginia have much above normal rainfall with above normal rainfall extending all the way into Maine. Coastal northern California and coastal Oregon benefit from increased precipitation, while southern California and much of inland California actually have below normal rainfall. The most widespread area for below normal precipitation are the Great Lakes states extending down to north Alabama and Georgia. Sections of the Intermountain West are the furthest below average rainfall during an El Nino, along with the southern California mountains and southern Nevada basin and range areas.



I guess if I had to make one sweeping generalization about the CONUS impact of a typical El Nino, it's that coastal areas of the entire country can expect to see above average rainfall and below average temperatures. Interior sections of the country can expect to see much above average temperatures and normal to significantly below normal precipitation. I don't know where the idea that an El Nino only "benefits" a few small sections of the country came from, but it's not true.
Quoting 247. RobDaHood:

Fun stuff.

Everybody take a deep breath and step away from the purple Kool-Aid.
i like the red one
Quoting 248. sar2401:



I don't know where this idea came from that only the South and California benefit from El Nino. Looking at winter impacts, since they are the most intensely felt, temperatures range from slightly below an ENSO Neutral year to much below, from California all the way across the county and up the East Coast to about DC. It's only the Upper Midwest and the Pacific Northwest that see temperatures much above normal.



In terms of precipitation, it's the Southeast, from South Central Texas to Florida, and then all the way up the East Coast to Virginia have much above normal rainfall with above normal rainfall extending all the way into Maine. Coastal northern California and coastal Oregon benefit from increased precipitation, while southern California and much of inland California actually have below normal rainfall. The most widespread area for below normal precipitation are the Great Lakes states extending down to north Alabama and Georgia. Sections of the Intermountain West are the furthest below average rainfall during an El Nino, along with the southern California mountains and southern Nevada basin and range areas.



I guess if I had to make one sweeping generalization about the CONUS impact of a typical El Nino, it's that coastal areas of the entire country can expect to see above average rainfall and below average temperatures. Interior sections of the country can expect to see much above average temperatures and normal to significantly below normal precipitation. I don't know where the idea that an El Nino only "benefits" a few small sections of the country came from, but it's not true.
Your not paying attention.We're talking about the impacts of a strong el nino not just any old regular el nino.Read read read.Then again you did instigate the last fight I got into on here so I'll leave it alone.
Quoting PedleyCA:


How about 1991-1994, they lost 4 years in a row. SB History

You're right. I was reading the NFL website wrong. I knew that too, since I remember what a bunch of losers they were. :-) OK, so sometime in late January from 1991 to 1994. That doesn't help narrow it down too much.
if your lucky enough to be still up after midnight..check the sky for the meteor shower,news said it should be a pretty good sight tonight..........
Quoting 240. Jedkins01:



but,but, its just a natural cycle, its the Sun! Yeah, the sun...

I've got a scientist neighbour who says that it is not only the sun but the increased population of cows which is a lot to blame for the early ice melting this year.
its not just Dr Masters who has to cope with odd people?
Quoting 199. weathermanwannabe:

Back to the weather for me. Another issue to look at down the road for the Atlantic season is the rather large Gulf eddy out there at the moment. A lot can happen in four months and it could break off into a semi-permanent feature come August and September. This particular eddy seems bigger to me that some of the ones in recent years but there have also been no storms to take of advantage of these eddies in the last few seasons; thankfully:





This is precisely why we have seen monster convective complexes develop out there ahead of cold fronts that look like they are going to obliterate Florida, but then fall apart later. This is because water temps in that loop current area well above normal, while water temps in the eastern gulf shelf off the west coast of Florida are cooler than normal.

If you've ever seen mesoscale analysis of systems as they move over that loop current area, that's where the thunderstorms have really blown up, and if you've noticed, during such events models have analyzed insane CAPE in the 4000 to 5000 range over the loop current build up ahead of fronts, while barely above zero, if not zero over the eastern gulf shelf waters.

The thing is, once we stop getting fronts, the shallow shelf waters always warm very rapidly, and then also become dangerous fuel sources for hurricanes, as we learned from Charley.


The scary thing about Florida compared to other states, is that, its more likely to experience hurricanes hitting that maintain strength or are still strengthening, and even rapidly deepening. However most other other parts of the gulf coast that are frequently impacted by hurricanes experience hurricanes that are in decline.

Charley, Andrew, the great Keys hurricane, there are other examples, but you don't really see that looking at hurricane history along other prone area of coastline.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Your not paying attention.We're talking about the impacts of a strong el nino not just any old regular el nino.Read read read.Then again you did instigate the last fight I got into on here so I'll leave it alone.

What? I never remember ever instigating a fight with you. Regardless, I was showing an average El Nino. If you can show me the same thing with a strong El Nino and how that changes things, please do so.
Quoting 253. PlazaRed:


I've got a scientist neighbour who says that it is not only the sun but the increased population of cows which is a lot to blame for the early ice melting this year.
its not just Dr Masters who has to cope with odd people?


Unfortunately no lol, now that we have a higher population, it makes for a higher probability of encountering crazy people that we don't know how to react/reply to. I've had plenty of encounters with uncomfortably odd people, that scare me as I don't know what to do or how to respond. I simply am left sctratching my head attempting to figure out what goes on in the mind of some people.
Quoting 248. sar2401:



I don't know where this idea came from that only the South and California benefit from El Nino. Looking at winter impacts, since they are the most intensely felt, temperatures range from slightly below an ENSO Neutral year to much below, from California all the way across the county and up the East Coast to about DC. It's only the Upper Midwest and the Pacific Northwest that see temperatures much above normal.



In terms of precipitation, it's the Southeast, from South Central Texas to Florida, and then all the way up the East Coast to Virginia have much above normal rainfall with above normal rainfall extending all the way into Maine. Coastal northern California and coastal Oregon benefit from increased precipitation, while southern California and much of inland California actually have below normal rainfall. The most widespread area for below normal precipitation are the Great Lakes states extending down to north Alabama and Georgia. Sections of the Intermountain West are the furthest below average rainfall during an El Nino, along with the southern California mountains and southern Nevada basin and range areas.



I guess if I had to make one sweeping generalization about the CONUS impact of a typical El Nino, it's that coastal areas of the entire country can expect to see above average rainfall and below average temperatures. Interior sections of the country can expect to see much above average temperatures and normal to significantly below normal precipitation. I don't know where the idea that an El Nino only "benefits" a few small sections of the country came from, but it's not true.


The fact is, I just would not want to live in Southern California, and actually I did for one year, but my point is it is extremely dry and doesn't have much going for it rain prospects wise to begin with. However, add the possibility of growing drought in the future in such dry places and its that much scarier. The supposed rainy season there isn't even a real rainy season, maybe relative to that area. But when I lived in Southern CA for a year we had near "normal" precipitation for the year including the "rainy" season. The rainy season there is a joke compared to the gulf coast, in fact the rain season there was the same as the dry season in Florida, if not even drier as rainfall was never true heavy rain, maybe relatively a couple times for their standards, but, not what I've come to know as a heavy rainfall rate, and we never got convection/thunderstorms.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
2014 severe season has begun very low compared with past years as you can see at the graphic. Let's see if the next 4-6 weeks turn more active.


Well, that has to be the most confusing chart ever created. Bins? I can't even read the black on red type. Of course, this graphic may explain my problem better:



If only I could get rid of this mange and the really annoying bubonic plague thing, I could understand charts better, :-)
Its amazing how many people have no idea about hardly anything, even though they have been educated.
In addition to the scientist neighbour who blames cows for climate change and says when they reduce in numbers we shall re-enter the last ice age.
I have another learned neighbour who recently stated that the Saharan dust we sometimes get on a southerly wind was created during a previous nuclear war in northern Africa.
A lot of local people here blame the rise in Gas/Petrol, prices now at about $9 a gallon on global warming and claim the government is using the climate change thesis idea to increase the fuel taxes to pay for the 36% unemployment we have in our area.
New story's every day.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Quoting 239. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Wow: in the last 15 minutes in Austin the caps are being tested and T-heads/anvils are
starting to rapidly form. Mets were murmuring about twisters for tonight, but the sun cleared out the
sky with such heat today that the forecast seemed ridiculous.

Moisture suddenly jetting in to the NE from MX - in the last 15 minutes - seems to validate the
twisters at night fcst that seemed so unlikely an hour ago.
Quoting 262. sar2401:


Gezundheit.
Quoting redwagon:


Severe T-storm watch with several warned storms (severe t-storm warnings, that is):

Quoting PlazaRed:
Its amazing how many people have no idea about hardly anything, even though they have been educated.
In addition to the scientist neighbour who blames cows for climate change and says when they reduce in numbers we shall re-enter the last ice age.
I have another learned neighbour who recently stated that the Saharan dust we sometimes get on a southerly wind was created during a previous nuclear war in northern Africa.
A lot of local people here blame the rise in Gas/Petrol, prices now at about $9 a gallon on global warming and claim the government is using the climate change thesis idea to increase the fuel taxes to pay for the 36% unemployment we have in our area.
New story's every day.

Your scientist friend isn't completely nuts. Livestock of all kinds contributes methane that is about 28% of the warming CO2 contributes. Assuming we don't kill off all the mammals but us that produce flatulence (I don't know if non-mammals have that problem), I don't think that number is going to change soon. Who knows, though, with chemtrails killing everything off. :-)
262. sar2401
9:43 PM GMT on April 21, 2014

I was trying to show a picture of enso effects around the world.In terms of precipitation effect and temperature effect.But as I was saying in terms of precipitation here in the U.S only the south-east really benefits from it.
Quoting 265. Astrometeor:


The cell right over my head is breaking bad and we have 3 more hours of heating left to go.
Quoting sar2401:

Your scientist friend isn't completely nuts. Livestock of all kinds contributes methane that is about 28% of the warming CO2 contributes. Assuming we don't kill off all the mammals but us that produce flatulence (I don't know if non-mammals have that problem), I don't think that number is going to change soon. Who knows, though, with chemtrails killing everything off. :-)


Although, since the large cow populations are there merely to feed us humans, one can argue that cow flatulence is actually part of AGW.
Quoting TimSoCal:


Gezundheit.

The wonderful software here kills any comments I make, and I can't figure out a way to make a close tag for all the JPEG garbage that was supposed to be some kind of graphic. Yep, real good work by the team.
Those emails are so funny!

A beautiful day! 52/77 and outside for lunch :) Should be a cool pleasant evening too.
Quoting Astrometeor:


Although, since the large cow populations are there merely to feed us humans, one can argue that cow flatulence is actually part of AGW.

True, but the one time I tried being a vegetarian for a couple of months, I'm quite certain I was contributing about as much methane as at least a small cow herd. :-)
Discrete cells over central Texas. Interesting how the cumulus fields disappear around the thunderstorms. (This image will refresh and be gone before long.)

sar2401 please replace comment 262 with a period. Thank you.
I believe grain fed cows produce much less methane than grass fed cows.
Quoting Jedkins01:


The scary thing is, a lot of people still believe the sun is behind the global warming. Just wait until we do hit another natural warming period from the sun, add that to the CO2, and well, it might be bye bye glaciers.

Glacier National Park is just about glacier-less now I do believe.



See http://www.nrmsc.usgs.gov/files/norock/research/Gl acier_Monitoring_Sites_final_t2.jpg
Quoting washingtonian115:
262. sar2401
9:43 PM GMT on April 21, 2014

I was trying to show a picture of enso effects around the world.In terms of precipitation effect and temperature effect.But as I was saying in terms of precipitation here in the U.S only the south-east really benefits from it.

So there's no benefit in terms of precipitation along the East Coast at all? That's different than all the other charts I've seen.
Quoting 117. Barefootontherocks:

Bahamas, Florida, Maui (my experience)... They seem to like tropical and subtropical climates.


Hey why not? For all we know, many of these aliens come from planets that are warm enough for life but much colder than ours. Maybe that's why Earth is such a hotspot for UFO's but they don't want to talk to us. Instead of dealing with the hassle of customs and security especially the U.S. the aliens attempt to sneak past our defenses as they flee to Earth to escape cold, gathering only flip flops, sunscreen and a few other supplies and use their warp drives to race here quickly and come to enjoy a tropical paradise, but sneak out as quickly as they come in.

That's my hypothesis on aliens :)

On a more serious note, I think it would serve a lot of people good to take a course in physics that involves optics and sound, they'll soon find that the human senses of hearing and sight can be very deceiving once you understand how it all works.

I think improper identification does make up the majority of UFO sightings, however there are a few UFO cases that are more compelling and hold their own as mysteries that can't be explained properly with anything known today in science.
I myself have had a couple odd experiences that I cannot figure out what I saw, and still bug me to this day. However, I don't call them aliens, because I simply don't know. There is no sense getting all paranoid and making up nonsense about something I don't know the answer for.

The fact is, the term UFO is used improperly itself to where people feel dumb calling something a UFO. After all, a UFO simply means an unidentified flying object, not an alien.

If people are calling such things aliens, they really aren't being honest as that isn't the same as a UFO, that's claiming you have evidence that support the object as an alien.

Its intellectually honest to call any flying object a UFO that we don't know what it is.

The existence of the most odd cases to me is a good indication that there is much scientific mystery that is yet to be known.
Quoting DonnieBwkGA:
sar2401 please replace comment 262 with a period. Thank you.

Done. How is the humidity up your way?
Quoting 273. bappit:


I have mamulous now.
Quoting 280. redwagon:



Mammatus, sorry.
Quoting 259. Jedkins01:


The fact is, I just would not want to live in Southern California, and actually I did for one year, but my point is it is extremely dry and doesn't have much going for it rain prospects wise to begin with. However, add the possibility of growing drought in the future in such dry places and its that much scarier. The supposed rainy season there isn't even a real rainy season, maybe relative to that area. But when I lived in Southern CA for a year we had near "normal" precipitation for the year including the "rainy" season. The rainy season there is a joke compared to the gulf coast, in fact the rain season there was the same as the dry season in Florida, if not even drier as rainfall was never true heavy rain, maybe relatively a couple times for their standards, but, not what I've come to know as a heavy rainfall rate, and we never got convection/thunderstorms.


Ha! I won't miss Florida thunderstorms as long as I live. I wouldn't mind living up in the Pac NW where there's more rain, but I've moved around enough for a lifetime already, and don't think I could convince my spouse to leave LA again.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Hey why not? For all we know, many of these aliens come from planets that are warm enough for life but much colder than ours. Maybe that's why Earth is such a hotspot for UFO's but they don't want to talk to us. Instead of dealing with customs and security.
They are so sick of the cold they flee to Earth gathering only flip flops, sunscreen and a few other supplies and use their warp drives to race here quickly and come to enjoy a tropical paradise, but sneak out as quickly as they come in.

That's my hypothesis on aliens :)

On a more serious note, I think it would serve a lot of people good to take a course in physics that involves optics and sound, they'll soon find that the human senses of hearing and sight can be very deceiving once you understand how it all works.

I think improper identification does make up the majority of UFO sightings, however there are a few UFO cases that are more compelling and hold their own as mysteries that can't be explained properly with anything known today in science.
I myself have had a couple odd experiences that I cannot figure out what I saw, and still bug me to this day. However, I don't call them aliens, because I simply don't know. There is no sense getting all paranoid and making up nonsense about something I don't know the answer for.

The fact is, the term UFO is used improperly itself to where people feel dumb calling something a UFO. After all, a UFO simply means an unidentified flying object, not an alien.

If people are calling such things aliens, they really aren't being honest as that isn't the same as a UFO, that's claiming you have evidence that support the object as an alien.

Its intellectually honest to call any flying object a UFO that we don't know what it is.

The existence of the most odd cases to me is a good indication that there is much scientific mystery that is yet to be known.

I know a good place on public lands just to the north of Area 51 that you can sit at night with a good spotting scope and see all kinds of weird sights. :-)
Quoting 261. PlazaRed:

Its amazing how many people have no idea about hardly anything, even though they have been educated.
In addition to the scientist neighbour who blames cows for climate change and says when they reduce in numbers we shall re-enter the last ice age.
I have another learned neighbour who recently stated that the Saharan dust we sometimes get on a southerly wind was created during a previous nuclear war in northern Africa.
A lot of local people here blame the rise in Gas/Petrol, prices now at about $9 a gallon on global warming and claim the government is using the climate change thesis idea to increase the fuel taxes to pay for the 36% unemployment we have in our area.
New story's every day.


Sounds like people there come up with just as crazy of ideas as here, that tells me its not culture, but just humans in general :)
Quoting redwagon:


Mammatus, sorry.

Like, right over your head? Uh oh, might be a good time to seek shelter.
Quoting 282. TimSoCal:



Ha! I won't miss Florida thunderstorms as long as I live. I wouldn't mind living up in the Pac NW where there's more rain, but I've moved around enough for a lifetime already, and don't think I could convince my spouse to leave LA again.


To each their own I guess :)

Quoting 277. sar2401:


So there's no benefit in terms of precipitation along the East Coast at all? That's different than all the other charts I've seen.
Lord have mercy..Where is the south-east located?.Because last I checked GA,NC,SC,FL are all in the S.E and is apart of the east coast (Southern east coast) and have coast.I didn't know they were in land locked states (The maps have been lying to me for years!).
Quoting 241. Climate175:

Can't believe May begins next week.


I know and we're still dealing with all these record cold issues, strange isn't it?

Weather: Near-record Great Lakes ice caused by cold winter could mean cool spring

Syracuse, N.Y. -- The near-record ice cover on the Great Lakes this winter could keep temperatures cooler this spring, says AccuWeather.com

This winter's ice cover, which peaked at 92 percent in early March, was the second-highest since records began in 1973. Even now, 39 percent of the total surface of the five lakes remain covered with ice -- mainly on Superior and the northern sections of Michigan and Huron.

Normally it's just 3 percent at this time of year.

The lingering ice, and the colder water temperatures it has created, will cause "cooler weather around the lakes and areas downwind in the Northeast well into spring," AccuWeather said in a news release.



Link
Quoting bappit:

Glacier National Park is just about glacier-less now I do believe.



See http://www.nrmsc.usgs.gov/files/norock/research/Gl acier_Monitoring_Sites_final_t2.jpg


Pretty big change in at least this one glacier since 1938.

Quoting 242. Jedkins01:




Ahh the coming signs of El Nino.

This is officially the 4th wettest Spring in Tallahassee, although we aren't experiencing El Nino yet by global observation, it would be hard pressed to argue that synoptic patterns aren't already behaving like El Nino in the southeast.


Are these the signs El Niño is coming?
Quoting 285. sar2401:


Like, right over my head. It's been trying to rain over Austin for two months with no success,
atmo too stable. For Mams to form over the Hill Country (me) is rare, the Hills kill storm momentum
as soon as they stumble, trip and fall into our lair.
Quoting 261. PlazaRed:

Its amazing how many people have no idea about hardly anything, even though they have been educated.
In addition to the scientist neighbour who blames cows for climate change and says when they reduce in numbers we shall re-enter the last ice age.
I have another learned neighbour who recently stated that the Saharan dust we sometimes get on a southerly wind was created during a previous nuclear war in northern Africa.
A lot of local people here blame the rise in Gas/Petrol, prices now at about $9 a gallon on global warming and claim the government is using the climate change thesis idea to increase the fuel taxes to pay for the 36% unemployment we have in our area.
New story's every day.


Where do you live plazared? This is sounding European to me.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Lord have mercy..Where is the south-east located?.Because last I checked GA,NC,SC,FL are all in the S.E and is apart of the east coast and have coast.I didn't know they were in land locked states (Thr maps have been lying to me for years!).

East Coast as in Virginia up to Maine. The entire East Coast, not just the Southeast. The charts I posted show the effects of an average El Nino. You claim that the same's not true in a "super" El Nino. I assume you saw this on a chart that you can post, so please do so without the extraneous exasperation.
Quoting 288. washingtonian115:

Lord have mercy..Where is the south-east located?.Because last I checked GA,NC,SC,FL are all in the S.E and is apart of the east coast (Southern east coast) and have coast.I didn't know they were in land locked states (The maps have been lying to me for years!).
Just forget the topic of it, it is pretty useless to get into a disagreement about El-nino.
Quoting 279. sar2401:


Done. How is the humidity up your way?


It's not bad, dewpoint is in upper 50s. Everything is greener than I've ever seen here, since mid spring is dry. April, May and November are our driest months on average, with a moderate peak in winter and the biggest peak in August/September.
Quoting redwagon:

The quote thing is still not working for you. There are a number of warned storms just to the west of Austin. Don't know exactly where you are, but some heavy weather might be headed your way.
Quite a nice sized fire popping up in Northern Pennsylvania near the Allegheny National Forest. Apparently a forest fire, approximately 800 acres is burning up there and growing quickly. Crews from my county's Forest Fire Unit in South Central PA are going up to help battle it. Don't often here about large fires like this one in PA
Quoting 293. Dakster:



Where do you live plazared? This is sounding European to me.

I live about half way between Gibraltar and Seville in southern Spain.
Yet another case of needing a space next to the avatar for location approx.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0377
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0509 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 85...

VALID 212209Z - 212345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 85
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...MODEST CONVECTIVE SEVERE HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL MAY STILL
INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL/ SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

DISCUSSION...THE DRYLINE APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
STRONGER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WHICH APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN
CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS IS WHERE MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES REMAIN RELATIVELY STEEP...INHIBITION HAS WEAKENED IN THE
PRESENCE OF STRONG HEATING...AND MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
MODERATELY LARGE MIXED LAYER CAPE. SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT IS WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH
35-40 KT WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW IS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

LATEST WDSS-II MESH DATA SUGGESTS THAT STRONGEST ONGOING CELLS ARE
PROBABLY PRODUCING AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...AND THIS THREAT
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER
STORMS REMAIN DISCRETE...AND LOW-LEVEL FORCING APPEARS
WEAK...CLUSTERING OF STORMS WEST OF TEMPLE AND AUSTIN INTO THE
JUNCTION AREA MAY BE DENSE ENOUGH THAT CONSOLIDATION OF COLD POOLS
COULD BEGIN TO OCCUR AND SUPPORT THE UPSCALE GROWTH OF A MORE
ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTER. IF THIS OCCURS...IT APPEARS THAT THE
TENDENCY WILL BE FOR ACTIVITY TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD AND
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO AREAS THROUGH THE 00-02Z
TIME FRAME...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASING RISK FOR
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..KERR.. 04/21/2014


ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 30880045 30819957 30999886 31129844 31339810 31839756
32249745 32579682 32219619 31349693 30529734 29779790
29519883 30040025 30600064 30880045
Quoting DonnieBwkGA:


It's not bad, dewpoint is in upper 50s. Everything is greener than I've ever seen here, since mid spring is dry. April, May and November are our driest months on average, with a moderate peak in winter and the biggest peak in August/September.

It's beautiful and green here too, and the ground is like walking over a wet sponge. I planted some bushes yesterday, and it's the first time the soil three feet down was actually muddy. Still, it's up to 84 with a dewpoint of of only 53, so that's 33% RH. It feels more like the desert than south Alabama.
Quoting LargoFl:
if your lucky enough to be still up after midnight..check the sky for the meteor shower,news said it should be a pretty good sight tonight..........


Just noticed your comment, Largo. Your local news channel is correct.

Earth is approaching a stream of debris from ancient Comet Thatcher, source of the annual Lyrid Meteor Shower. Usually the shower is mild (10-20 meteors per hour) but unmapped filaments of dust in the comet's tail sometimes trigger outbursts ten times stronger. Forecasters expect this year's peak, however strong it may be, to occur on April 22nd.
Source
Quoting PlazaRed:

I live about half way between Gibraltar and Seville in southern Spain.
Yet another case of needing a space next to the avatar for location approx.

The labels on your pictures kind of gave me a hint but, I agree, having a location label somewhere would be a nice thing so we don't have to click around trying to figure it out. I'm sure that's planned for version 1.1. :-)
Quoting 294. sar2401:


East Coast as in Virginia up to Maine. The entire East Coast, not just the Southeast. The charts I posted show the effects of an average El Nino. You claim that the same's not true in a "super" El Nino. I assume you saw this on a chart that you can post, so please do so without the extraneous exasperation.
Someone posted the picture on here showing the effects of a strong el nino (I think (TropicalweatherPR).My area (extreme Northern V.A and up) didn't really benefit and saw above average temps.Especially during winter.Hell I even have CWG to back me up when saying D.C sees less cold during the winter and precipitation can be displaced as well.
Quoting 297. sar2401:


The quote thing is still not working for you. There are a number of warned storms just to the west of Austin. Don't know exactly where you are, but some heavy weather might be headed your way.


Not a lot is working for me except my own eyes on the skies! The Mammatii are very pretty, not very black, and well-defined. They are losing their composure to the South, and their baseline generation is due North.
Quoting 297. sar2401:


The quote thing is still not working for you. There are a number of warned storms just to the west of Austin. Don't know exactly where you are, but some heavy weather might be headed your way.


Not a lot is working for me except my own eyes on the skies! The Mammatii are very pretty, not very black, and well-defined. They are losing their composure to the South, and their baseline generation is due North.

Quoting 12. ricderr:

The victims of May 25 2006 will be tens of millions. The devastated survivors will be more numerous still.


boy do I remember that date...i was one of those victims
I don't know about the millions that perished, but I had a wonderful 40th birthday party that day!
Quoting 304. sar2401:


The labels on your pictures kind of gave me a hint but, I agree, having a location label somewhere would be a nice thing so we don't have to click around trying to figure it out. I'm sure that's planned for version 1.1. :-)

I put up few pictures of our zone so as people can see its very rugged and somewhat wild.
A lot of the so called spaghetti westerns were made near here.

I think that the large white space next to the bloggers name could easily accommodate a location, as its not used for anything else and often people ask where people are writing from, unless its part of the site name, like some people use.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Someone posted the picture on here showing the effects of a strong el nino (I think (TropicalweatherPR).My area (extreme Northern V.A and up) didn't really benefit and saw above average temps.Especially during winter.Hell I even have CWG to back me up when saying D.C sees less cold during the winter and precipitation can be displaced as well.


This what the precipitation looked like during the last four strong El Nino's:



As I wrote, it appears that coastal areas in general do well in a strong El Nino in terms of precipitation. California and Louisiana do the best of all. Most of Florida actually doesn't have a bigger precipitation anomaly than the DC area. Some of what happens in a strong El Nino has assumed almost mythical proportions that aren't borne out by the facts.
Quoting 303. Astrometeor:



Just noticed your comment, Largo. Your local news channel is correct.

Earth is approaching a stream of debris from ancient Comet Thatcher, source of the annual Lyrid Meteor Shower. Usually the shower is mild (10-20 meteors per hour) but unmapped filaments of dust in the comet's tail sometimes trigger outbursts ten times stronger. Forecasters expect this year's peak, however strong it may be, to occur on April 22nd.
Source
ought to be an awesome sight huh...maybe my dogs will get me up 2-3 am...hope the shower is still around.
Quoting 289. iceagecoming:



I know and we're still dealing with all these record cold issues, strange isn't it?

Weather: Near-record Great Lakes ice caused by cold winter could mean cool spring

Syracuse, N.Y. -- The near-record ice cover on the Great Lakes this winter could keep temperatures cooler this spring, says AccuWeather.com

This winter's ice cover, which peaked at 92 percent in early March, was the second-highest since records began in 1973. Even now, 39 percent of the total surface of the five lakes remain covered with ice -- mainly on Superior and the northern sections of Michigan and Huron.

Normally it's just 3 percent at this time of year.

The lingering ice, and the colder water temperatures it has created, will cause "cooler weather around the lakes and areas downwind in the Northeast well into spring," AccuWeather said in a news release.



Link
great pic there
Hurricane Erin was suppose to hit New York City on September 11, 2001 but made a quick U turn when a front pushed it away.
Quoting 314. Climate175:

Hurricane Erin was suppose to hit New York City on September 11, 2001 but made a quick U turn when a front pushed it away.


Just imagine how that could have changed history. Not that we would have known it.
From solarham.com

Published on Apr 21, 2014

The Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) provided us with a front row seat to multiple eruptive events off the northwest limb during the past couple of days (Apr. 20 - Apr 21, 2014). This full disk inverted video using the 304 angstroms channel shows at least 5 eruptions off the limb (top right in video). A number of coronal mass ejections were seen leaving the area in coronagraph imagery, but were each directed away from our planet due to the non geoeffective position. Enjoy the show!

Quoting 314. Climate175:

Hurricane Erin was suppose to hit New York City on September 11, 2001 but made a quick U turn when a front pushed it away.
I know a hurricane is bad but I personally think it would have delayed the terrorist attacks.But then again unfortunately we need things to happen in order open our eyes.
Quoting 315. Dakster:



Just imagine how that could have changed history. Not that we would have known it.
Well that would be the first time i would say a hurricane could prevent a terrorist attack,it would have closed all airports in New York and DC.
Quoting 320. Climate175:

Well that would be the first time i would say a hurricane could prevent a terrorist attack,it would have closed all airports in New York and DC.


Delayed anyways.
Fire Danger in Miami-Dade and Monroe Counties.

A stubborn wild fire has closed down Card Sound Round.

http://www.miamiherald.com/2014/04/21/4072431/stu bborn-brush-fire-shuts-down.html

Link
Quoting 317. LargoFl:


Atmosphere's too stable... shattering the line... for years now. Is it the white chalk of Limestone
in the Hill Country? Reflectivity? What is causing this now 4-yr drought? Areas (radius) just 10 miles of
us with black soil have always nabbed all the rain.
Quoting 210. StormTrackerScott:



Yeah it was weird as 24hrs prior to the actual event the models did a complete 360 on us. Made me look embarrassed on here as I was just posting what the models were showing only to let me fall flat on my face and this was inside the 3 day range that you speak of.
You should never feel that you "fell on your face" on a forecast, and the SS Embarrassed has sailed long ago in your case...but I still continue to enjoy your forecasts for their exuberance.
Quoting 304. sar2401:


The labels on your pictures kind of gave me a hint but, I agree, having a location label somewhere would be a nice thing so we don't have to click around trying to figure it out. I'm sure that's planned for version 1.1. :-)


There is a place in every ones blog to place a city under "my local weather." This would locate you fairly well if people used it. I did.
I had no idea that Ingrid was retired...Imelda now..
Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 4:28 PM PDT on April 21, 2014
Partly Cloudy
82.9 °F
Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 29%
Dew Point: 47 °F
Wind: 12.0 mph from the NNE
Wind Gust: 16.0 mph
Pressure: 29.90 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 81 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 5 out of 16
Pollen: 6.30 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Few 20000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 1070 ft

85.0 here, 86.0 at the Airport.....
Quoting 178. Birthmark:


Yes, satellite data is difficult to get right.

The reason GISS has a slightly(and statistically insignificant) higher trend is that it has better coverage of the polar regions. Period. Your conspiracy theory about "upward adjustments" is a baseless claim. This is easily demonstrated by using the favorite time period of denialists everywhere: 1998-present.

GISS 1998-2014 Trend: 0.069 ±0.129 °C/decade (2σ)
UAH 1998-2014 Trend: 0.062 ±0.221 °C/decade (2σ)




Yes, of course, the highest & artificially produced trends are being observed in the arctic, where a relative lack of adequate temperature stations exist, & FYI denial doesn't exist in science, you can save such large scale labeling and attacks for politics & religion, where it rightfully belongs...
Lyrid Meteor Shower to Light Up Skies Tuesday Morning
What is the right diagnosis?
By: Dr. Ricky Rood , 12:09 AM CDT on April 21, 2014



There is no world in which we live that is uninfluenced by our emissions of many pollutants, including carbon dioxide, and our changes to the land and oceans. We make a mistake if we dismiss human-induced climate change as not influencing the weather each and every day.
Apr .21, 2014 1:33 pm ET

South |


- Showers and thunderstorms will be moving from west to east across the region Tuesday.

- Much of Florida and areas west of the Mississippi River will be spared from the rain Tuesday.

- The severe threat is fairly low Tuesday.

- A stronger storm moves east of the Rockies Wednesday bringing the threat of severe thunderstorms in western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle.

- Large hail, damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes are possible Wednesday.

- Thursday the threat of severe thunderstorms shifts into the lower Mississippi Valley, eastern Oklahoma and eastern Texas.

- It will be a warm week with highs in the 70s and 80s across the region.

- Thunderstorms (some severe) will develop southward from the southern plains to western Texas Wednesday afternoon and evening.

- A few tornadoes are possible, as well.
Quoting 329. Webberweather53:



Yes, of course, the highest & artificially produced trends are being observed in the arctic, where a relative lack of adequate temperature stations exist

FYI denial doesn't exist in science, you can save such large scale labeling and attacks for politics & religion, where it rightfully belongs...

Quoting 207. LargoFl:

i was just browsing the web..and i was surprised just how many scientists and studies have found sunspot activity (highs and low points)..that affect hurricanes..even saw a piece from the doc saying at sunspot Low points More hurricanes hit the USA than when they are at their high point........64% more hit the usa when there are few or none on the sun...and we Now...are at the Low point in sunspots...could be one very interesting season...I for one am going to be watching this to see IF it proves true.....IF it does....then maybe we all have to watch sunspot numbers besides watching the model runs...interesting indeed
Quoting 172. Birthmark:


Instead of looking at pictures, let's look at the numbers instead. Let's also compare the trends of 1997-present, 1998-present, and 1999-present with the trends for 1979 -1997. And let's use six different data sets so that we get a good overview of what the data are saying:

GISTEMP
1979-1997 Trend: 0.108 ±0.122 °C/decade (2σ)

1997-2014 Trend: 0.078 ±0.119 °C/decade (2σ)
1998-2014 Trend: 0.069 ±0.129 °C/decade (2σ)
1999-2014 Trend: 0.098 ±0.139 °C/decade (2σ)

NOAA
1979-1997 Trend: 0.103 ±0.104 °C/decade (2σ)

1997-2014 Trend: 0.046 ±0.109 °C/decade (2σ)
1998-2014 Trend: 0.041 ±0.121 °C/decade (2σ)
1999-2014 Trend: 0.066 ±0.129 °C/decade (2σ)

HADCRUT4
1979-1997 Trend: 0.108 ±0.107 °C/decade (2σ)

1997-2014 Trend: 0.048 ±0.112 °C/decade (2σ)
1998-2014 Trend: 0.042 ±0.123 °C/decade (2σ)
1999-2014 Trend: 0.066 ±0.129 °C/decade (2σ)

UAH
1979-1997 Trend: 0.034 ±0.178 °C/decade (2σ)

1997-2014 Trend: 0.094 ±0.206 °C/decade (2σ)
1998-2014 Trend: 0.062 ±0.221 °C/decade (2σ)
1999-2014 Trend: 0.146 ±0.212 °C/decade (2σ)

RSS
1979-1997 Trend: 0.071 ±0.170 °C/decade (2σ)

1997-2014 Trend: -0.013 ±0.201 °C/decade (2σ)
1998-2014 Trend: -0.050 ±0.217 °C/decade (2σ)
1999-2014 Trend: 0.027 ±0.211 °C/decade (2σ)

COWTAN & WAY
1979-1997 Trend: 0.114 ±0.133 °C/decade (2σ)

1997-2014 Trend: 0.114 ±0.136 °C/decade (2σ)
1998-2014 Trend: 0.109 ±0.149 °C/decade (2σ)
1999-2014 Trend: 0.138 ±0.161 °C/decade (2σ)

The observant among you might notice that for the 1979-1997 period only one data set, HADCRUT4, shows statistically significant warming. And that's by the barest possible amount.

Now, about that "pause"....


Quoting 182. sar2401:


You lost me completely on that one. It looks like all the data shows warming from decade to decade. Are you saying the warming isn't statistically significant on the other five models? Can you post the same data from 1979 to 2014, forgetting decades, so we can see the actual temperature difference between the models for the start and end of the entire period?


The debate reall
Quoting 201. Birthmark:


We're in the middle of the weakest solar cycle in over 100 years.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Still it warms.


Of course, you can cherry pick any solar cycle you choose, but the general trend over the last several centuries since the Maunder & Dalton Solar Minimums has been significantly upwards...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
313 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REASONING WILL LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION
COMPROMISE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED.

FORECAST QUANDARIES...WX PATTERN TONIGHT THRU TUE...WX PATTERN LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...TEMPS.

MODELS CONTINUING THEIR RECENT TREND OFF OVERALL WEAKENING OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO INFLUENCES THE MID STATE`S WX
TONIGHT...STILL LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...
AS A SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MID STATE FROM THE NW BY
22/12Z. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR SHOWING EVEN
THE POSSIBILITY OF THIS ACTIVITY MAINLY MOVING S OF THE MID STATE
TOO. ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDING SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF OVERALL
ATM INSTABILITY...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST OF THE MID STATE BY 22/12Z ALSO...CAN NOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER HERE OR THERE MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT
BELIEVE THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SHWRS
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ALSO. AS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...EXPECT
GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE HALF OF AN INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS. AS FOR
TEMPS...WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVERAGE...RAINFALL...AND A
CONTINUANCE OF SWLY WIND FLOW EXPECTED...TAPPING INTO A SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIRMASS TO OUR SW ALSO...WILL GO CLOSE TO AN MOS GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS SOLUTION. EXPECT NUMEROUS SHWRS AND ISO TSTMS TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID STATE DURING THE MORNING HRS ON TUE AS
SFC FRONT MOVES THRU THE MID STATE DURING THE MORNING HRS...WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLY PERSISTING ACROSS THE
PLATEAU AND SRN COUNTIES. EXPECT A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN HIGHS FROM
THIS AFTERNOON`S VALUES...AND WILL AGAIN GO CLOSE TO CONSENSUS
MODEL REASONING ON TEMPS...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S.
RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S WED MORNING...HIGHS NEAR SEASONABLE
NORMAL VALUES ON WED...AND A RETURN TO TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S ON WED NIGHT.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THU THRU THE FIRST
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...STILL EXPECTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MOVE THRU
THE MID STATE MAINLY ON THU NIGHT...WITH SOME STRONG TSTMS POSSIBLE...
BUT MODEL TRENDING TOWARD THIS POSSIBILITY BECOMING MORE AND MORE ISO
IN NATURE. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE MORNING HRS ON FRI...
CANADIAN BASED SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES SHOULD PROVIDE FOR DRY CONDITIONS
THRU AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SUN. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS AS OF LATE DEALING WITH THE OVERALL WX PATTERN FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF SUN INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE
STARTING TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER. SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD
AGAIN DEVELOP ON SUN NIGHT/MON AS A WELL ORGANIZED FRONTAL SYSTEM
PUSHES A WARM FRONT FROM THE S INTO THE MID STATE PUTTING THE MID
STATE IN THE BROAD WARM SECTOR OF THIS DEVELOPING POTENTIALLY STRONG
FRONTAL SYSTEM. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES THRU SAT...MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...COOLING BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES BY THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
Remember one of the only good laughs we had last year? Kiko in the Epac..The NHC had it as a TD when it was really a hurricane XP
Then the NHC didnt even recognize it as a hurricane until post season.
Quoting 337. Climate175:


Is not worth posting the gfs when it shows something 360hr out.
Is like posting the CFS 1000hrs showing a cat 5 hitting New York. -_-
Quoting 334. Webberweather53:



The debate reall

Of course, you can cherry pick any solar cycle you choose, but the general trend over the last several centuries since the Maunder & Dalton Solar Minimums has been significantly upwards...



the trend over the last 50 years has been significantly downwards, yet the earth refuses to cool. what's the estimated change in insolation in watts/square meter there? that's the question.
I was hoping for rain, now i'm hoping please weaken, oh please weaken. I don't want to see Baseball size hail, i'm not in the warning but if the storms keep up i'm just past the warning...


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
708 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN BLANCO COUNTY...
SOUTHEASTERN GILLESPIE COUNTY...
NORTHEASTERN KENDALL COUNTY...

* UNTIL 800 PM CDT.

* AT 705 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BASEBALL SIZE HAIL
...AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LBJ STATE
PARK...OR 14 MILES EAST OF FREDERICKSBURG...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
20 MPH. THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND VERY
HEAVY RAINS UP TO 2 INCHES.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE STONEWALL...HYE...ROCKY
CREEK...ALBERT...JOHNSON CITY...FLUGRATH...KENDALIA AND BLANCO.
Quoting 338. Gearsts:

Is not worth posting the gfs when it shows something 360hr out.
Is like posting the CFS 1000hrs showing a cat 5 hitting New York. -_-
I am just tracking what the GFS shows until 7 days out.
Quoting 338. Gearsts:

Is not worth posting the gfs when it shows something 360hr out.
Is like posting the CFS 1000hrs showing a cat 5 hitting New York. -_-


I agree...Silly.
Silly?
Quoting Climate175:
Silly?


Well...yeah. It's kinda useless to constantly post a model up to 360 hours out, different model runs at that timeframe aren't going to tell us anything new or useful...
Quoting 345. Astrometeor:



Well...yeah. It's kinda useless to constantly post a model up to 360 hours out, different model runs at that timeframe aren't going to tell us anything new or useful...
Maybe i should wait until we are say 7 days out.
Models are amazing and useful, but when predicting a storm more than a week out...It gets iffy..
Id rather have a low pressure in the area and then see what a model does with it.
Quoting Climate175:
Maybe i should wait until we are say 7 days out.


Much better. Even so, try not to do it in excess like KEEP tends to do when he posts the entire model run.
Quoting 254. Jedkins01:



This is precisely why we have seen monster convective complexes develop out there ahead of cold fronts that look like they are going to obliterate Florida, but then fall apart later. This is because water temps in that loop current area well above normal, while water temps in the eastern gulf shelf off the west coast of Florida are cooler than normal.

If you've ever seen mesoscale analysis of systems as they move over that loop current area, that's where the thunderstorms have really blown up, and if you've noticed, during such events models have analyzed insane CAPE in the 4000 to 5000 range over the loop current build up ahead of fronts, while barely above zero, if not zero over the eastern gulf shelf waters.

The thing is, once we stop getting fronts, the shallow shelf waters always warm very rapidly, and then also become dangerous fuel sources for hurricanes, as we learned from Charley.


The scary thing about Florida compared to other states, is that, its more likely to experience hurricanes hitting that maintain strength or are still strengthening, and even rapidly deepening. However most other other parts of the gulf coast that are frequently impacted by hurricanes experience hurricanes that are in decline.

Charley, Andrew, the great Keys hurricane, there are other examples, but you don't really see that looking at hurricane history along other prone area of coastline.

It's not necessarily all true. There have been plenty of hurricanes that have hit the gulf coast in the past at a steady strength, or even strengthening. For example, Audrey in 1957 was intensifying as it approached Louisiana, Alicia in 1983 was also in a strengthening mode as it approached Galveston, and even Humberto in 2007, Erin in 1995, and Danny in 1997 (coincidentally the year of the strongest El Nino) exhibited the same trend. True, there seems to have been also numerous storms in recent years that have weakened on their approach to the upper gulf coast, and that is an interesting observation, I may add. I think it is only a matter of time before we see another hurricane maintain its strength or even strengthen rapidly as it approaches the northern gulf coast.
Quoting 345. Astrometeor:



Well...yeah. It's kinda useless to constantly post a model up to 360 hours out, different model runs at that timeframe aren't going to tell us anything new or useful...
To add to that, the area of interest isn't of much significance. What's shown in the model run isn't a TC at all, just an area of lower pressure. Even the weak TC's that have shown up on the long-range GFS aren't of much significance yet. The GFS making these ghost storms in the Caribbean like that is a known bias of the GFS. Besides, it's late April and there won't be anything of interest coming out of the Caribbean for a while.
350. Don't tell that to KidCayman!
Quoting 348. Astrometeor:



Much better. Even so, try not to do it in excess like KEEP tends to do when he posts the entire model run.
that keep fella he is something else isn't he maybe it would be better if he didn't come around here at all
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
that keep fella he is something else isn't he maybe it would be better if he didn't come around here at all


Don't even know how you came up with that. Just because I've expressed radically different opinions doesn't mean I want you gone or anything.
Correction to the fire comment earlier. It is not an 800 acre wildfire in Bradford County.

It is a 700 acre wildfire in Bedford County (Pennsylvania)
I have been here long enough to see long range runs come to happen..if you dont want to see long range model runs, please just put people on ignore so we wont have to hear you complain the entire season..I'm sure the NHC/NWS is telling their folks the same thing when it comes to the models as well as there is no need looking down the pipeline to see what may happen...because we all know 3 days out the models are PERFECT..because I will tell you right now, I will be posting long range model runs as long as my laptop works and AT&T provides internet..dont like it just ignore instead of complaining constantly on here..
Quoting 356. ncstorm:

I have been here long enough to see long range runs come to happen..if you dont want to see long range model runs, please just put people on ignore so we wont have to hear you complain the entire season..I'm sure the NHC/NWS is telling their folks the same thing when it comes to the models as well as there is no need looking down the pipeline to see what may happen...because we all know 3 days out the models are PERFECT..because I will tell you right now, I will be posting long range model runs as long as my laptop works and AT&T provides internet..dont like it just ignore instead of complaining constantly on here..
We are just saying that it is a waste of time to look at.
Uploaded on Mar 31, 2008

Audio of the famous UFO incident in Pascagoula, Mississippi that J. Allen Hynek investigated and found two early abduction victims totally credible. The beginning of the audio has Dr. Hynek talking about an unrelated incident at Wright-Patterson AFB. Then the interview switches to the Pascagoula case, in which two fishing buddies claimed to have been abducted by strange-looking aliens. Hold on to your seats! There is an excellent Wikipedia article about it here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pascagou...
(The interview was compiled by WWDC [now DC101] in Washington, DC.)
If you happen to live around Mr. Hickson or Mr. Parker, please give them a hug!

@ncstorm and others

Why is it that for you and others, the solution to a minor grievance is to put the offender on ignore? I have 0 people on ignore, which is surprising, since I want several people here banned for multiple violations of the rules (not you nc, you're good).

Not a single person here complains "constantly" about model posting, the complaints only appear every once in a while, with plenty of logical backing, if I do say so.

And sure, the GFS may get it right every once in a while (as in 1 in a billion or less, that statistic was just made up), but that doesn't mean it's okay to post every model run. I would think one should only post interesting long-range model runs...not every classic "oh hey, there's a 1007 mb low right there in the MDR," since everyone on the weather planet pretty much has seen a model run showing that and has been disappointed.

Reminds me of "the Boy who Cried Wolf" phenomena. Sure, it can be exciting or cool the first couple times around, but it's rather dull and boring the next several hundred times around.

Despite all of that, I still won't put anyone on ignore. You never know what you might miss if you have someone on ignore.

:-)
Quoting 350. wxchaser97:

To add to that, the area of interest isn't of much significance. What's shown in the model run isn't a TC at all, just an area of lower pressure. Even the weak TC's that have shown up on the long-range GFS aren't of much significance yet. The GFS making these ghost storms in the Caribbean like that is a known bias of the GFS. Besides, it's late April and there won't be anything of interest coming out of the Caribbean for a while.

Quoting 351. GeoffreyWPB:

350. Don't tell that to KidCayman!


Lol you guys need to stop doing that because Me having already been here already read the comment and then you say not to tell me what do you take me for an idiot


Quoting 350. wxchaser97:

To add to that, the area of interest isn't of much significance. What's shown in the model run isn't a TC at all, just an area of lower pressure. Even the weak TC's that have shown up on the long-range GFS aren't of much significance yet. The GFS making these ghost storms in the Caribbean like that is a known bias of the GFS. Besides, it's late April and there won't be anything of interest coming out of the Caribbean for a while.


I would wait before doubting GFS remember GFS forecasts storms in long term then it's gone by mid range then brings it back in short range forecast then storm starts so I say wait if it fails to return in short term and fails to develop then we could drop this one
Quoting Climate175:


Here's the chart you posted from Levi's web site:



Here's the actual GFS chart from NOAA:



In comparing the two charts, how many low pressure systems do you see on the second chart? How many high pressure systems? Where are they in relation to one another? Look at the high pressure system in the upper left hand corner of the first chart, and look at how the isobars stack up headed toward the high. Do you think there is or isn't a high pressure system there, and why. Study these two charts for a while and see which one think is probably the most accurate, disregarding if any of this will happen 10 days from now.
Quoting 358. Patrap:

Uploaded on Mar 31, 2008

Audio of the famous UFO incident in Pascagoula, Mississippi that J. Allen Hynek investigated and found two early abduction victims totally credible. The beginning of the audio has Dr. Hynek talking about an unrelated incident at Wright-Patterson AFB. Then the interview switches to the Pascagoula case, in which two fishing buddies claimed to have been abducted by strange-looking aliens. Hold on to your seats! There is an excellent Wikipedia article about it here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pascagou...
(The interview was compiled by WWDC [now DC101] in Washington, DC.)
If you happen to live around Mr. Hickson or Mr. Parker, please give them a hug!





I thought they found out it was just spotlights from a new Burger King that had opened on Market Street.
Do I know you or what WKC?
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I would wait before doubting GFS remember GFS forecasts storms in long term then it's gone by mid range then brings it back in short range forecast then storm starts so I say wait if it fails to return in short term and fails to develop then we could drop this one


I don't not trust the GFS at 10 days. I don't trust any model at 10 days. I mean, seriously, is any 10 day model going to change anything you do, like travel plans, or boarding up the windows? We have just as much information looking at something five days out, when there might actually be a low in place, without all this back and forth about what a model saw, dropped, saw again...until it gets to five days anyway. I rather wonder what your reaction would be if the GFS showed nothing but a huge high pressure system 10 days out.
Dear Admin,

Posting under "Emails from responsible persons" I have two questions:

1. Although there are none listed today, Wunderground lat/longs (latitudes & longitudes) of Indian Ocean storms reference negative North Latitude and an East Longitude that makes no sense, i.e not from the Prime Meridian. Sorry, I'm a sailor. How is a 254 degree East longitude off Madagascar? See last week's storms.

2. With the revised wunderground graph of temperatures and wind - a nice feature - are you brave enough to post ACTUAL temperatures and wind speeds?

Dos centavos,

Dennis
s/v Ferrity
Quoting 349. lobdelse81:


It's not necessarily all true. There have been plenty of hurricanes that have hit the gulf coast in the past at a steady strength, or even strengthening. For example, Audrey in 1957 was intensifying as it approached Louisiana, Alicia in 1983 was also in a strengthening mode as it approached Galveston, and even Humberto in 2007, Erin in 1995, and Danny in 1997 (coincidentally the year of the strongest El Nino) exhibited the same trend. True, there seems to have been also numerous storms in recent years that have weakened on their approach to the upper gulf coast, and that is an interesting observation, I may add. I think it is only a matter of time before we see another hurricane maintain its strength or even strengthen rapidly as it approaches the northern gulf coast.


Major hurricanes tend to weaken prior to landfall along the US Gulf Coast. Even small fluctuations in atmospheric nuances can have a significant effect on the Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI) of such hurricanes, the most important of them probably be oceanic heat content decreases (not necessarily raw sea surface temperature) and vertical shear increases.
Pictures of the famous UFO incident in D.C in 1957...



Quoting wunderkidcayman:



Lol you guys need to stop doing that because Me having already been here already read the comment and then you say not to tell me what do you take me for an idiot


WKC, I thought you retired from here? Besides, you should know that we just like to joke around with ya. No harm intended.
Yeah he posted a model run 300 hundred+ hours out on a slow weather day..Who gives a damn...I see if something else major was happening but it's a slow weather day and nobody has talked about anything important enough to shut out one measly frame of a model run showing something.It's just something to look at if your into that kind of thing.If not?.Scroll past it.
Quoting 369. Astrometeor:



WKC, I thought you retired from here? Besides, you should know that we just like to joke around with ya. No harm intended.


True. I am just happy the Caymans appear to be safe from hurricanes this season. Keeping my fingers crossed!
Astro..I said my peace..I never said I would put anyone on ignore..I suggest you and others who dont like long range model runs to do it..its aggrevating every year to hear people talk about how long range model runs are useless when thats not true..go to any previous discussion for the WPC/NHC/NWS and you will see they look at long range as well..instead of complaining about long range model runs just put people on ignore is what I suggest..just as you dont think its necessary to see a long range model run then I dont think its necessary to hear you and others complain about them..there will be people on here who will post long range model runs so unless you can deal with it then ignore is your friend..or you can just stop complaining..its up to you but I will continue to post the CFS/GFS/CMC/Nogaps and any other model that has long range..
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL CYCLONE JACK, CATEGORY ONE (16U)
9:27 AM WST April 22 2014
================================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Jack, Category One (995 hPa) located at 16.3S 94.2E or 540 km south southwest of Cocos Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 7 knots.

Gale Force Winds
============
40 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
180 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
180 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
40 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/3.0/W1.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 16.8S 94.9E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 17.5S 95.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 17.3S 95.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 16.6S 96.0E- 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
==================

Tropical Cyclone Jack has been located overnight by a series of microwave images showing the low level circulation center displaced from the central dense overcast as the system begins to be weakening rapidly by strong shear.

Dvorak analysis is based on a shear pattern which sees the low level circulation center now more than half a degree away from the cold cloud. This gives DT around 2.0 averaged over the past 3 hours. FT has been set at 2.0 in line with DT [MET gives 2.5]. CI kept one T number higher at 3.0 giving current intensity of 40 knots [10 min]. SATCON at 19 UTC had intensity at 48 knots [1 min].

Strong NW shear across the system will continue the rapid weakening trend and Jack is expected to fall below tropical cyclone intensity during Tuesday. The forecast track is for southeastwards motion for the next 12 hours though once the low level circulation center is completely removed from the deep convection it's motion is expected to be influenced by the ridge to the south. Gales may continue in southern quadrants after the system has weakened below cyclone intensity with the synoptically driven increased pressure gradient between the system and the ridge to the south.
and i don't post multi images of ghost storms myself
only images i post multi of when it comes to models is the hires sim rad nam

mostly when the event is a sure thing
Quoting 370. washingtonian115:It's just something to look at if your into that kind of thing.If not?.Scroll past it.


A lesson well-deserved for the multiple people on Facebook that have deleted me for posting provocative status updates. xD
Quoting 371. GeoffreyWPB:



True. I am just happy the Caymans appear to be safe from hurricanes this season. Keeping my fingers crossed!
i am thinking most if not all will track left or right of the caymans this year
but then again what do i know
Quoting 350. wxchaser97:

To add to that, the area of interest isn't of much significance. What's shown in the model run isn't a TC at all, just an area of lower pressure. Even the weak TC's that have shown up on the long-range GFS aren't of much significance yet. The GFS making these ghost storms in the Caribbean like that is a known bias of the GFS. Besides, it's late April and there won't be anything of interest coming out of the Caribbean for a while.


The GFS is responding to lower pressure. An evolution that is typical during May/June. Nothing more.
Quoting 369. Astrometeor:



WKC, I thought you retired from here? Besides, you should know that we just like to joke around with ya. No harm intended.


Really. I want my gold watch back. :)
Quoting 360. wunderkidcayman:




Lol you guys need to stop doing that because Me having already been here already read the comment and then you say not to tell me what do you take me for an idiot




I would wait before doubting GFS remember GFS forecasts storms in long term then it's gone by mid range then brings it back in short range forecast then storm starts so I say wait if it fails to return in short term and fails to develop then we could drop this one
The GFS did this last year, and the year before that, and probably before then too (But IDK). It's going to take a while before one of these ghost TC's even begins to move up the timeline, much less actually verify. Conditions still aren't favorable for TC genesis anyway.

And for the whole it shows it in the long-range, drops it, and brings it back doesn't happen a whole lot and when it does, it sure isn't the same solution it was showing in the long-range. The long-range on the models is nicknamed fantasy land for a reason, it very rarely ever verifies. For example, in the middle of December of 2013 the GFS was showing a mid-latitude cyclone moving across the Ohio Valley, bring SE MI a decent snowstorm. It dropped it during winter break and Christmas time. The storm did show up again on the GFS and other global models in the short-term, but was now more broad and strung out along a frontal boundary than what was shown on the long-range. The storm did happen, I got about 6" of snow from the long-duration event, but it happened differently than what the long-range GFS prognosticated it to be. That was one of the rare examples that a long-range snowstorm on the models even happened! If all the 240 hr+ snowstorms verified on the models, then I would probably get 100" seasons frequently, lol. I know tropical cyclones are different from mid-latitude cyclones, but it's the same concept.
Quoting 361. sar2401:



Here's the chart you posted from Levi's web site:



Here's the actual GFS chart from NOAA:



In comparing the two charts, how many low pressure systems do you see on the second chart? How many high pressure systems? Where are they in relation to one another? Look at the high pressure system in the upper left hand corner of the first chart, and look at how the isobars stack up headed toward the high. Do you think there is or isn't a high pressure system there, and why. Study these two charts for a while and see which one think is probably the most accurate, disregarding if any of this will happen 10 days from now.

Both images are showing the same atmospheric conditions, they are just represented differently. Levi's image has the isobars on a 2mb interval while the NOAA image has them on a 4mb interval. Levi's site shows more subtle minimums and maximums in the pressure field than the NOAA imagery, it seems. It also looks like the precipitation is at a greater resolution on Levi's image than NOAA's. So while they look different in some aspects, both of the images are presenting the same thing. As long as you know how to read these model images, and other model output on multiple different websites and complexities, then they both should be similarly accurate.
Quoting 376. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

i am thinking most if not all will track left or right of the caymans this year
but then again what do i know


You know a lot Keep. I agree. The Caymans should be in good shape this season.
As some of you already know, I won a WxChallenge trophy for out-forecasting ~700-800 freshmen/sophomores for the eight days period for Grand Forks, North Dakota. I also finished 8th out of 2,000 forecasters (including college upperclassmen, media members, college professors, few NOAA forecasters) for that city as well but since I was the best finisher for freshmen/sophomores in North America, I get a trophy. Today, my beautiful blue glass trophy finally arrived from University of Oklahoma, which is the host of WxChallenge forecasting contest. Just by getting this trophy is HUGE for my resume for the future since there's only about 75 winners out of 2000 every year. I'm very proud of this trophy :)



Maybe one of the younger kids on here will one day win a trophy like this :)
Quoting 380. GeoffreyWPB:



You know a lot Keep. I agree. The Caymans should be in good shape this season.


On the contrary, if we get any development in the Caribbean, it's likely to come from the western Caribbean where vertical shear should be a little bit less.
Quoting 381. Bluestorm5:

As some of you already know, I won a WxChallenge trophy for out-forecasting ~700-800 freshmen/sophomores for the eight days period for Grand Forks, North Dakota. I also finished 8th out of 2,000 forecasters (including college upperclassmen, media members, college professors, few NOAA forecasters) for that city as well but since I was the best finisher for freshmen/sophomores in North America, I get a trophy. Today, my beautiful blue glass trophy finally arrived from University of Oklahoma, which is the host of WxChallenge forecasting contest. Just by getting this trophy is HUGE for my resume for the future since there's only about 75 winners out of 2000 every year. I'm very proud of this trophy :)

<

Maybe one of the younger kids on here will one day win a trophy like this :)


way to go blue congats

we had a forecasting contest on here a few times a few years back S tanner hosted it our very own blog admin it was great fun and interesting to see who got what right
i myself would like to see something like that again

maybe i will ask

most were done during the winter so it would likely be after nov i guess
385. txjac
Quoting 381. Bluestorm5:

As some of you already know, I won a WxChallenge trophy for out-forecasting ~700-800 freshmen/sophomores for the eight days period for Grand Forks, North Dakota. I also finished 8th out of 2,000 forecasters (including college upperclassmen, media members, college professors, few NOAA forecasters) for that city as well but since I was the best finisher for freshmen/sophomores in North America, I get a trophy. Today, my beautiful blue glass trophy finally arrived from University of Oklahoma, which is the host of WxChallenge forecasting contest. Just by getting this trophy is HUGE for my resume for the future since there's only about 75 winners out of 2000 every year. I'm very proud of this trophy :)



Maybe one of the younger kids on here will one day win a trophy like this :)


Congratulations Bluestorm on your blue trophy! Very impressive
Quoting 380. GeoffreyWPB:



You know a lot Keep. I agree. The Caymans should be in good shape this season.



BB
Quoting 386. Grothar:




BB


What is BB? Big Burp?
Quoting 387. GeoffreyWPB:



What is BB? Big Burp?


Big Bertha, I presume. But I'm an idiot, so what do I know lmao.
looks like a cool spell by the end of the run

Quoting 388. KoritheMan:



Big Bertha, I presume. But I'm an idiot, so what do I know lmao.
no your not you just different that's all
Quoting 389. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

looks like a cool spell by the end of the run




Oh, Goody....lol
Congrats on that nice Blue trophy Kyle......

That deep blob of warm water is about 300 feet deep and the size of the USA. That deep warm water is being pushed east due to the reversal of the trade winds and it’s moving towards the surface. When that warm water meets the surface, it’ll interact with the air in the atmosphere warming it up and modifying weather patterns.
394. txjac
I love you kids on here ...high school and fresh in college
I get the same satisfaction from watching you succeed as I did when my children succeeded.
You have many "second parents" here!

I'm very proud to be in your presence and to "know" you!
396. txjac
Quoting 395. StormTrackerScott:




How long does an El Nino last? It varies I assume?
Quoting 388. KoritheMan:



Big Bertha, I presume. But I'm an idiot, so what do I know lmao.


You know I love ya! :)
The Storm Prediction Center is now taking feedback regarding their proposed changes to the convective outlooks (both for the Days 1-3 outlooks and for the Day 4-8 outlook). These changes include replacing "See Text" with "Marginal" risk and adding an "Enhanced" risk between a Slight and Moderate risk.

Link


Quoting 396. txjac:



How long does an El Nino last? It varies I assume?
as wash would say o no not another spring during the winter again
Nice Day today Huh Keeper, was 85 here.... what did you end up with?
Mornin' Jack.



Quoting Bluestorm5:
As some of you already know, I won a WxChallenge trophy for out-forecasting ~700-800 freshmen/sophomores for the eight days period for Grand Forks, North Dakota. I also finished 8th out of 2,000 forecasters (including college upperclassmen, media members, college professors, few NOAA forecasters) for that city as well but since I was the best finisher for freshmen/sophomores in North America, I get a trophy. Today, my beautiful blue glass trophy finally arrived from University of Oklahoma, which is the host of WxChallenge forecasting contest. Just by getting this trophy is HUGE for my resume for the future since there's only about 75 winners out of 2000 every year. I'm very proud of this trophy :)



Maybe one of the younger kids on here will one day win a trophy like this :)

Very nice, Kyle, and for Grand Forks, ND, no less, not any easy place to forecast weather. The only trophy I ever got was for "Most Rust Free Car" for my '57 Chevy in at a car show in 1965 in Cleveland. Yours is much more impressive. I'm waiting for the first time I see your name on the bottom of a forecast discussion for real. :-)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The Storm Prediction Center is now taking feedback regarding their proposed changes to the convective outlooks (both for the Days 1-3 outlooks and for the Day 4-8 outlook). These changes include replacing "See Text" with "Marginal" risk and adding an "Enhanced" risk between a Slight and Moderate risk.

Link



So, is the graphic showing just the tornado probabilities for Alabama on that fateful day, or tornadoes and thunderstorms...I'm still a little confused by all this and how it's an improvement.
Quoting txjac:


How long does an El Nino last? It varies I assume?

On average, it ramps up for six months, then down for six months, then we have a La Nina.
Quoting 362. Grothar:




I thought they found out it was just spotlights from a new Burger King that had opened on Market Street.


I know of a Missing Time Incident story during a NATO Exercise, that was even investigated by The Disclosure Project, under Dr. Stephen Greer.

Quoting wxchaser97:

Both images are showing the same atmospheric conditions, they are just represented differently. Levi's image has the isobars on a 2mb interval while the NOAA image has them on a 4mb interval. Levi's site shows more subtle minimums and maximums in the pressure field than the NOAA imagery, it seems. It also looks like the precipitation is at a greater resolution on Levi's image than NOAA's. So while they look different in some aspects, both of the images are presenting the same thing. As long as you know how to read these model images, and other model output on multiple different websites and complexities, then they both should be similarly accurate.


You're not supposed to tell. :-)
Quoting 402. sar2401:


Very nice, Kyle, and for Grand Forks, ND, no less, not any easy place to forecast weather. The only trophy I ever got was for "Most Rust Free Car" for my '57 Chevy in at a car show in 1965 in Cleveland. Yours is much more impressive. I'm waiting for the first time I see your name on the bottom of a forecast discussion for real. :-)


What a coincidence. I won a trophy in 1957 for showing my 1965 Chevy in Milwaukee.
Quoting 404. sar2401:


So, is the graphic showing just the tornado probabilities for Alabama on that fateful day, or tornadoes and thunderstorms...I'm still a little confused by all this and how it's an improvement.

My example shows the overall convective outlook for the coverage/magnitude of severe storms. There won't be any changes for the tornado, hail, and wind probability maps exclusively (though what qualified as a SLGT/ENH/MDT/HIGH risk will change).
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Pictures of the famous UFO incident in D.C in 1957...




I think that was from "The Day the Earth Stood Still".
Quoting Grothar:


What a coincidence. I won a trophy in 1957 for showing my 1965 Chevy in Milwaukee.

Yeah, you would too...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

My example shows the overall convective outlook for the coverage/magnitude of severe storms. There won't be any changes for the tornado, hail, and wind probability maps exclusively (though what qualified as a SLGT/ENH/MDT/HIGH risk will change).

Ah, OK. I'll just keep that chart handy then until I have this figured out. :-)
Guys I'm not saying that I do indeed trust GFS long range fully but I'm just saying is that GFS sometimes shows a storm in long term drops it in Mid and brings it back in short I say just wait and see if it comes back

I say I my self Trust short term more than long but we should look at long term as a possibility

On another note a question was raised earlier if I was Retired the answer is yes but I did state I would pop in a few times once in a while
Quoting Astrometeor:
@ncstorm and others

Why is it that for you and others, the solution to a minor grievance is to put the offender on ignore? I have 0 people on ignore, which is surprising, since I want several people here banned for multiple violations of the rules (not you nc, you're good).

Not a single person here complains "constantly" about model posting, the complaints only appear every once in a while, with plenty of logical backing, if I do say so.

And sure, the GFS may get it right every once in a while (as in 1 in a billion or less, that statistic was just made up), but that doesn't mean it's okay to post every model run. I would think one should only post interesting long-range model runs...not every classic "oh hey, there's a 1007 mb low right there in the MDR," since everyone on the weather planet pretty much has seen a model run showing that and has been disappointed.

Reminds me of "the Boy who Cried Wolf" phenomena. Sure, it can be exciting or cool the first couple times around, but it's rather dull and boring the next several hundred times around.

Despite all of that, I still won't put anyone on ignore. You never know what you might miss if you have someone on ignore.

:-)

Wait until we have a busy hurricane season, Kyle. Assuming we ever have a busy season again, your ignore list will grow by leaps and bounds. :-)
415. beell
Quoting 404. sar2401:


So, is the graphic showing just the tornado probabilities for Alabama on that fateful day, or tornadoes and thunderstorms...I'm still a little confused by all this and how it's an improvement.



The purpose is to achieve better consistency and resolution between SPC's probabilistic outlooks and the descriptive (categorical) outlooks.

Perhaps it resolves around this inconsistency...

Currently, a 10 percent risk of a significant tornado (EF2 or greater) is categorized as a SLGT Risk which is the same category used for a "low end" risk of severe thunderstorm wind and hail events at 15%.

An EF2 on a slight risk day is hard to justify. A 10% probability of an EF2 or greater is a bit more than a "non-zero risk". The Categorical risks are designed for the general public. The probabilities are for those that understand them. A measure of confidence by the forecaster compared to climatology.

By the way I hope we are not looking at another severe storms and tornado outbreak for this upcoming weekend I can not stand for me to be partying like mad on my birthday (27th) while severe storms and tornados rip through my Bros is America
It really hit me hard back in 2011
NOAA Storm Prediction Center

Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Apr 21, 2014

POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
Forecast Discussion

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 210833
SPC AC 210833

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0333 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

VALID 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY4-8 TIME PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY...GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER
CONSIDERABLY IN THEIR EVOLUTION OF THREE MAJOR SYNOPTIC-SCALE
COMPONENTS. THE FIRST BEING THE AMPLITUDE OF UPPER LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES...2...SWD EXTENT OF SFC FRONT OVER THE PLAINS/MS
VALLEY...AND 3...AMPLITUDE OF SHORT WAVE/UPPER LOW OVER THE SWRN
U.S.

WHILE STRONG CONVECTION MAY ULTIMATELY LINGER INTO THE DAY4 PERIOD
AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY...LIMITED
MOISTURE/BUOYANCY SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THIS REGION. OF MORE CONCERN IS THE 00Z/144-HR
ECMWF FORECAST WHICH SHARPENS A DRYLINE ACROSS KS...SWD INTO NWRN
TX. STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THIS BOUNDARY
ACROSS A BROAD...MOIST AND POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
CLASSIC SEVERE EVENT COULD UNFOLD ACROSS THIS REGION SATURDAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE POSSIBLE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE ERN PORTIONS OF
THE SRN PLAINS/MS VALLEY SUNDAY...AND LOWER MS VALLEY/CNTRL GULF
STATES DAY8.

HOWEVER...GFS IS CONSIDERABLY MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND BLOCKING HIGH OVER CNTRL CANADA FORCING A
DOMINANT SFC ANTICYCLONE SWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS. SFC
FRONT PLUNGES INTO NORTH TX BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EFFECTIVELY
UNDERCUTS STRONGER SWLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF SWRN UPPER LOW. THIS
SCENARIO WOULD SUGGEST A NARROW WEDGE OF HIGHER INSTABILITY WITHIN
UPSLOPE REGION OF NM COULD SUPPORT MEANINGFUL SEVERE. WHILE SEVERE
TSTMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF POLAR FRONT...FRONTAL POSITION
RAISES UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PLACEMENT OF MOST ORGANIZED SEVERE
THREAT. FOR THIS REASON PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT AN
OUTLOOK THIS PERIOD.

..DARROW.. 04/21/2014

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
418. beell
Congratulations, Bluestorm5. A lot of weather comes through that part of the country-in a hurry!
Quoting beell:



The purpose is to achieve better consistency and resolution between SPC's probabilistic outlooks and the descriptive (categorical) outlooks.

Perhaps it resolves around this inconsistency...

Currently, a 10 percent risk of a significant tornado (EF2 or greater) is categorized as a SLGT Risk which is the same category used for a "low end" risk of severe thunderstorm wind and hail events at 15%.

An EF2 on a slight risk day is hard to justify. A 10% probability of an EF2 or greater is a bit more than a "non-zero risk". The Categorical risks are designed for the general public. The probabilities are for those that understand them. A measure of confidence by the forecaster compared to climatology.


It just seems like it would be so much better to drop the descriptive part (especially non-words like MRGL and ENH are used) and just use the percentages. The normal day to day forecasts from the NWS have already conditioned the public to look at percentages, so they know 20% is "Probably Not" while 60% is "Pretty Good Chance". It just seems unnecessary to mix the two concepts, especially when I need a matrix to figure it out.
Quoting 410. sar2401:


I think that was from "The Day the Earth Stood Still".


There was no attack in "The Day the Earth Stood Still" There was only one which landed in Washington. It could have been from "The Earth versus the Flying Saucers or one of the others.
421. beell
Quoting 419. sar2401:


It just seems like it would be so much better to drop the descriptive part (especially non-words like MRGL and ENH are used) and just use the percentages. The normal day to day forecasts from the NWS have already conditioned the public to look at percentages, so they know 20% is "Probably Not" while 60% is "Pretty Good Chance". It just seems unnecessary to mix the two concepts, especially when I need a matrix to figure it out.


You may be right, sar. I believe the SPC made a decision not to upset convention and scrap the whole deal with something brand new. The descriptive categories are pretty straight foward. It's the probabilities that confuse imo.
Quoting sar2401:

Wait until we have a busy hurricane season, Kyle. Assuming we ever have a busy season again, your ignore list will grow by leaps and bounds. :-)


Um, sar, my name's Nathan.
Bluestorm5's name is Kyle. So is CybrTeddy's.
Quoting 329. Webberweather53:



Yes, of course, the highest & artificially produced trends are being observed in the arctic, where a relative lack of adequate temperature stations exist, & FYI denial doesn't exist in science, you can save such large scale labeling and attacks for politics & religion, where it rightfully belongs...

That's ri-i-ight. Denial doesn't exist in science. Those denying AGW don't have a scientific leg to stand on.

Congrats!
Quoting 334. Webberweather53:



The debate reall

Of course, you can cherry pick any solar cycle you choose, but the general trend over the last several centuries since the Maunder & Dalton Solar Minimums has been significantly upwards...

Perhaps. But the solar trend since ~1950s has been down.

The temperature trend has been going up.
425. beell
Quoting 417. Patrap:



POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).




or in other words, a threat is expected-they're just not sure where at this time, lol. A difference between potential and predictability.

FRONTAL POSITION RAISES UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PLACEMENT OF MOST ORGANIZED SEVERE
THREAT. FOR THIS REASON PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT AN OUTLOOK THIS PERIOD.

Quoting 381. Bluestorm5:

As some of you already know, I won a WxChallenge trophy for out-forecasting ~700-800 freshmen/sophomores for the eight days period for Grand Forks, North Dakota. I also finished 8th out of 2,000 forecasters (including college upperclassmen, media members, college professors, few NOAA forecasters) for that city as well but since I was the best finisher for freshmen/sophomores in North America, I get a trophy. Today, my beautiful blue glass trophy finally arrived from University of Oklahoma, which is the host of WxChallenge forecasting contest. Just by getting this trophy is HUGE for my resume for the future since there's only about 75 winners out of 2000 every year. I'm very proud of this trophy :)


Maybe one of the younger kids on here will one day win a trophy like this :)

That's good stuff, Bluestorm! Congratulations on a job well done.
Nola Roux

Quoting 420. Grothar:



There was no attack in "The Day the Earth Stood Still" There was only one which landed in Washington. It could have been from "The Earth versus the Flying Saucers or one of the others.


Quoting 381. Bluestorm5:

As some of you already know, I won a WxChallenge trophy for out-forecasting ~700-800 freshmen/sophomores for the eight days period for Grand Forks, North Dakota. I also finished 8th out of 2,000 forecasters (including college upperclassmen, media members, college professors, few NOAA forecasters) for that city as well but since I was the best finisher for freshmen/sophomores in North America, I get a trophy. Today, my beautiful blue glass trophy finally arrived from University of Oklahoma, which is the host of WxChallenge forecasting contest. Just by getting this trophy is HUGE for my resume for the future since there's only about 75 winners out of 2000 every year. I'm very proud of this trophy :)



Maybe one of the younger kids on here will one day win a trophy like this :)


Congrats man, that's seriously impressive!

I got second place at the local forecast contest at my school this semester, but I don't know how I would do nationally, I think it might be a little too much pressure for me while trying to do school lol, maybe I'll give it a go next semester.
klaatu, barada, nikto
Hawaii
Quoting 432. sunlinepr:




Hey look! It's the Hawaiian hurricane shield!
Quoting Astrometeor:


Um, sar, my name's Nathan.
Bluestorm5's name is Kyle. So is CybrTeddy's.

Sorry, got you mixed up. Old age will do that kind of thing. :-)
That was interesting.
Post 428 followed by post 429.
.
Pat....I like your trailer a lot more than Keep's trailer.
Quoting Grothar:


There was no attack in "The Day the Earth Stood Still" There was only one which landed in Washington. It could have been from "The Earth versus the Flying Saucers or one of the others.

Wasn't there a scene where the saucer with Klatu and whoever Michael Renny's character was flew over the Capital when they were returning to wherever they came from? Then again, it may have been from another flying saucer movie. There were so many of them back then.
Quoting 433. KoritheMan:



Hey look! It's the Hawaiian hurricane shield!


Its called HaarpWaii
Quoting 407. sar2401:



You're not supposed to tell. :-)
I was on a roll so I kept going and told!


Very quiet day here...
Quoting 437. sunlinepr:



Its called HaarpWaii


Ba dum tiss!
Quoting 400. PedleyCA:

Nice Day today Huh Keeper, was 85 here.... what did you end up with?
67 68 sorry ped been working on my blog and checking else where kinda back and forth
High of 79ºF in ECFL..

Here is 98W. Jack & 91S fell apart some today.

TRMM of Jack earlier..

Congratulations Bluestorm5!
447. flsky
I watched the remake a couple of days ago. No comparison.
Quoting 429. Patrap:


TC Jack



Tropical Cyclone Jack is weakening rapidly as it moves east to southeastwards
across the central Indian Ocean. The system poses no direct threat to the Cocos
Islands or mainland Western Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Jack is expected to weaken below cyclone intensity during
today. Gales may still continue in southern quadrants after the system has
weakened.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 3 pm WST.

Name: Tropical Cyclone Jack
Identifier: 16U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 16.3S
Longitude: 94.2E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: east [086 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [12 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 995 hPa
Radius of Maximum Winds: 30 nm [55 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/3.0/W1.5/24HRS STT:W0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 140 nm [260 km]
Quoting 208. yoboi:



wait until SC25......

11 years from now: "wait until SC26......"
Still the best! From Earth Day 1971. Right click to enlarge.

Recent ASCAT of 98W..

Just updated.

Good Morning!.......................................... ........................................
Good morning everybody.

SPC Day 4-8 outlook:

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VALID 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...SIGNIFICANT MULTI-DAY SEVERE EVENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL U.S. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...


22/00Z ECMWF IS EXHIBITING REASONABLE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OVER
THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH THE GFS NOW TRENDING TOWARD ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
THIS FORECAST IS HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE ECMWF.

EARLIER CONCERNS REGARDING A POLAR FRONT UNDERCUTTING STRONG SWLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SRN PLAINS ARE LESSENING. WHILE UPPER BLOCK
OVER CNTRL CANADA WILL ULTIMATELY FORCE A DOMINANT SFC ANTICYCLONE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS...IT APPEARS THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
AIR MASS SHOULD STRUGGLE TO ADVANCE MUCH SOUTH OF I-70 OVER KS/MO
THIS WEEKEND.

STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO DIG SEWD INTO THE LOWER CO
RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY WITH UPPER DIFLUENCE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
PLAINS AS FAR SOUTH AS WEST TX AT 27/00Z. THIS EVOLUTION WILL ALLOW
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE TO ADVANCE POLEWARD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WHERE
PW VALUES SHOULD EASILY APPROACH 1.25 INCHES AS SFC DEW POINTS CLIMB
THROUGH THE MID-UPPER 60S ACROSS A BROAD WARM SECTOR. LATEST
THINKING IS MODERATE-EXTREME INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG ERN
PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM WCNTRL TX...NWD INTO SCNTRL KS
SATURDAY WHERE MUCAPE COULD APPROACH 4000 J/KG. IF THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT EVOLVES AS LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THEN POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES
CAN BE EXPECTED. CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE ALONG DRYLINE FROM SWRN
TX...NWD INTO WRN KS SATURDAY THEN REDEVELOP AGAIN SUNDAY FROM SERN
KS...SWD INTO CNTRL TX AS MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX EJECTS INTO THE SRN
PLAINS. SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE MS VALLEY BY EARLY
MONDAY. ORGANIZED SEVERE MAY CONTINUE INTO THE DAY7 PERIOD BUT
SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION DURING THE DAY5-6 TIME FRAME COULD
POTENTIALLY DISRUPT THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...THUS CONFIDENCE IS
NOT AS HIGH.

There must be some pretty high confidence. It's extremely rare for the SPC to point out the risk for strong tornadoes in their day 4-8 outlook.
Lots of warming occurring now across nino 1&2 and should go positive in the next day or 2 and might reach El-nino levels this time next week.

Happy Earth Day All..

(Don't forget Arbor Day this Friday..
Plant a Tree.. :)

Quoting 160. weathermanwannabe:
142.
2:53 PM EDT on April 21, 2014

Thank You for your service to the Country.  I am wondering (looking at your F-4 Pic and  F-16 Avatar) if the Low Yo-Yo maneuver modifies in any significant way if you are flying a Raptor instead with the variable nozzles; seems to me that the turning radius could probably be shortened on that maneuver with help from the nozzles but the G's might still be too harsh (to the pilot and not the plane).

Thank You Sir.



Sorry I couldn't get back to you yesterday. Your question is valid because the aircraft's capabilities always affect the way you fly and fight with it. The Hi and Low Yo-Yo are just a couple of the tricks one uses in close visual combat, sometimes called dogfighting. We call that type of flying BFM for Basic Fighter Maneuvers. The basics for that type of fighting haven't changed since the Spad, because its all based on energy management and physics as employed by the pilot with the "best hands" and aircraft.

In the same way that a barometer and thermometer are basic to all forecasting, basic fighter maneuvers are the building blocks for all fighter ops. Stealth and advanced long-range missiles are like a properly positioned and equipped wx satellite that allows you to move ahead by an order of magnitude in long range wx interpretation and forecasting.

Understanding your adversaries tactics, weapons, and aircraft is like having a host of long-range computer models; you don't know what will happen, but you employ your knowledge and aircraft to negate what the bad guy will most likely do. So... if I can size up and sort a flight of enemy fighters at 100 miles and shoot them at very long range before they detect me, then I'm employing my stealth and weapons optimally and they never even know they are targeted until its too late. If I get close where they see me, all the stealth in the world won't help and vectored thrust is useless against a guy that I don't see who shoots me with a gun.

Anyway, that's why I have been "lurking" on this blog for years watching the great verbal dogfights between the pros and wannabes when the tropics cook off. The pros call on their experience and ALL the tools at hand while the wannabes tend to hang onto Model X or Y. Its fun to see who goes down in flames as each system evolves! :-)
Good morning all...

Quoting 458. F16NightSpook:



Sorry I couldn't get back to you yesterday. ......
Anyway, that's why I have been "lurking" on this blog for years watching the great verbal dogfights between the pros and wannabes when the tropics cook off. The pros call on their experience and ALL the tools at hand while the wannabes tend to hang onto Model X or Y. Its fun to see who goes down in flames as each system evolves! :-)
Rather interesting metaphor there.... lol... welcome to the blog!
Climate trends in the Arctic as observed from space

Abstract

The Arctic is a region in transformation. Warming in the region has been amplified, as expected from ice‐albedo feedback effects, with the rate of warming observed to be ∼0.60 ± 0.07°C/decade in the Arctic (>64°N) compared to ∼0.17°C/decade globally during the last three decades. This increase in surface temperature is manifested in all components of the cryosphere. In particular, the sea ice extent has been declining at the rate of ∼3.8%/decade, whereas the perennial ice (represented by summer ice minimum) is declining at a much greater rate of ∼11.5%/decade. Spring snow cover has also been observed to be declining by −2.12%/decade for the period 1967–2012. The Greenland ice sheet has been losing mass at the rate of ∼34.0 Gt/year (sea level equivalence of 0.09 mm/year) during the period from 1992 to 2011, but for the period 2002–2011, a higher rate of mass loss of ∼215 Gt/year has been observed. Also, the mass of glaciers worldwide declined at the rate of 226 Gt/year from 1971 to 2009 and 275 Gt/year from 1993 to 2009. Increases in permafrost temperature have also been measured in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere while a thickening of the active layer that overlies permafrost and a thinning of seasonally frozen ground has also been reported. To gain insight into these changes, comparative analysis with trends in clouds, albedo, and the Arctic Oscillation is also presented.


Link
Quoting 452. Skyepony:
Cyclone Jack halts air search for Malaysian plane.
Who cares! They're not gonna find it anyway.
Quoting 452. Skyepony:
Cyclone Jack halts air search for Malaysian plane.
...and they probably won't even find "Jack" either!
It's Earth Day today! Happy Birthday, Earth!
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Good Morning/Evening.

I'm not sure 20,000 comments can be considered "lurking".

Happy Earth Day!
This would be a historical weather event if it pans out
7-day Tampa bay area.............................................. ........................
Quoting 466. hydrus:

This would be a historical weather event if it pans out
wow Hydrus
looks like around april 29-30 we need to stay alert............................................. ......
Too Ancient Aliens and NRAmy>



The stones in Puma Punku are made up of granite, and diorite, and the only stone that is harder that those two, is the diamond. If the people who built this place cut these stones using stone cutting techniques, then they would had to have used diamond tools.

If they didn't use diamonds to cut these stones, then what did they use?

Not only were these stones really hard to cut, but they are also extremely heavy. One of these stone ruins weighs in at about 800 tons! These are big stones, and they are really heavy. The nearest quarry is at least 10 miles away from the site of the ruins. How in the world did these people move these blocks that weighed many tons, and how were they able to form a structure with them?
With the technology that we currently have today, it would be extremely difficult to recreate the site of these ruins, if possible at all. If we can't do it, then how did these ancient people accomplish this task? This could have taken place anywhere from 500 b.c. all the way back to the Ice Age.

These ancient people had to have been very sophisticated, knowing astronomy, geomancy, and mathematics. However, there are no records of this work. To build a place like Puma Punku, there must have been significant planning, and writing involved, but there is no record of any of this.



Interlocking Stones

There is one more significant thing to mention regarding the ruins of Puma Punku. Not only were these stones cut somehow, but they were finely cut. The cuts on these stones are perfectly straight. The holes cored into these stones are perfect, and all of equal depth.

How is it that these ancient people were able to cut stones like this?

It is as if only master builders were allowed to come in and construct Puma Punku. All of the blocks are cut so that they interlock, and fit together like a puzzle. There is no mortar. There are only great stones that once fit together creating a structure some four levels high